Nelly's
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RATING 5 TEXAS (-13½) over Kansas
RATING 4 COLORADO STATE (PK) over New Mexico
RATING 3 KANSAS STATE (+6½) over Nebraska
RATING 2 EAST CAROLINA (+2½) over Southern Miss
RATING 2 OREGON STATE (-3) over California
RATING 1 VANDERBILT (+4) over Kentucky
RATING 1 NEW MEXICO STATE (+15) over Fresno State
WEDENESDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2008
Temple (-2½) KENT STATE 7:00 PM
The Flashes have one of the top rushing offenses in the nation but it
has not translated into wins. Kent has played a weak schedule but
the defense is allowing over 400 yards per game. Kent owns just
one ATS win all season long, whereas a veteran Temple squad is 6-
2 ATS. Temple does not post great offensive numbers but solid
defense and strong special teams play has kept the Owls very
competitive. Temple is 3-6 but two losses came in OT and the Owls
are allowing less than 20 points per game. Kent has just three
covers in the last 15 lined home games. TEMPLE BY 6
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-3) Central Michigan 7:00PM
Northern Illinois is an improved team this season but none of the five
wins came against quality teams. Central Michigan has owned MAC
games in recent years and coming off a bye week the Chippewas
will be ready to deliver. Given NIU’s success in this series there will
be no overlooking this game for next week’s big game against Ball
State. Northern Illinois has had success as a home underdog but
Central Michigan has taken care of business in conference play for
the most part though there have been some close calls. Northern
Illinois has taken a step forwards but not enough. CM BY 7
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2008
AKRON (-2½) Buffalo 6:00 PM
Both teams won big in early week games last week and with five
wins each, this could be a potential bowl bid elimination game for
two fringe postseason candidates. Through fairly similar schedules
Buffalo has a slight edge on defense while Akron has been a bit
more productive offensively. This is the final game for the Rubber
Bowl stadium in Akron but Buffalo has the more impressive resume
this season. The Bulls are also 14-5 ATS on the road the last three
years including 4-0 this year. BUFFALO BY 6
MIAMI, FL (-4) Virginia Tech 6:45 PM
The Hokies had a huge day on the ground last week but this could
be a tough situation facing a second straight Thursday game against
a rested Hurricanes squad. Miami has won four straight games and
the defensive numbers are among the best in the ACC, allowing just
286 yards per game. Virginia Tech crushed Miami last season 44-14
but the Hokies have not had great success on the road this season.
Look for Miami to force Virginia Tech to throw the ball and the
passing game results have not been positive for the Hokies this
season. Virginia Tech has been a strong home team but the value is
with Miami particularly after a bye week while Virginia Tech is
coming off a dominant national TV win. MIAMI BY 10
UNLV (-8½) Wyoming 8:00 PM
Both teams are coming off big wins last week but the magnitude of
Wyoming’s upset at Tennessee last week should make this a tough
follow-up game on a short week. This will be the second straight
road game for the Cowboys and Wyoming is averaging fewer than
twelve points scored per game this year. The UNLV offense has
been productive and despite just three S/U wins on the year the
Runnin’ Rebels have six ATS wins. Wyoming beat UNLV narrowly
last season but the Cowboys are just 2-11 ATS the last 13 road
games. UNLV has not had much success in the favorite role but a
letdown is in order after a huge win for Wyoming. UNLV BY 14
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2008
Cincinnati (-3) LOUISVILLE 7:00 PM
With the big win last week Cincinnati is in the driver’s seat in the Big
East with the showdown with Pittsburgh slated for next week.
Louisville could play spoiler as the Cardinals have beat Cincinnati
five consecutive seasons. After back-to-back ugly road losses
Louisville sits at 5-4 and after hitting rock-bottom last week with five
turnovers, the Cardinals are in need of a big game. Cincinnati was
badly out-gained last week but still managed to win in OT. Louisville
has a much stronger running game and one of the top rush
defenses in the nation and the Cardinals could surprise against a
good but inconsistent Cincinnati squad. LOUISVILLE BY 4
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2008
PENN STATE (-34) Indiana 11:00 AM
Indiana is 1-7 S/U and ATS the last eight games and there is little
left for the Hoosiers to play for after a poor performance in the final
home game last week. Penn State could be flat after losing its
perfect start to the season but the Lions should have significant
advantages in this match-up to make up for any emotional factors.
Last season Indiana earned a backdoor cover but the Lions have
had great results in this series since joining the Big Ten. Penn
State’s offense struggled last week but look for the offense to pour it
on this week with huge statistical advantages on the season. Penn
State has had great recent results as big favorites. PSU BY 38
IOWA (-15) Purdue 11:00 AM
Last week Iowa gave a big sigh of relief to many fans in Big 12 and
SEC country as the Big Ten was likely knocked out of BCS title
game contention. Iowa is a solid team to take in the underdog role at
home but the Hawkeyes are just 6-12 the last three years as home
favorites. Purdue has played one of the toughest schedules of any
Big Ten team and the despite the disappointing year there have
been some competitive efforts against quality teams. Purdue’s
defense has had respectable numbers for the most part and after
such a huge win last week Iowa will likely be a little flat coming out
the gate this week. Iowa clinched bowl eligibility last week and there
may be many extra distractions this week coming off the upset and
now in the final home game. IOWA BY 10
MICHIGAN (-3) Northwestern 11:00 AM
Northwestern could not hang with Ohio State last season and
although the Wildcats have seven wins, few are impressive.
Michigan has endured a very trying season but there have been two
wins against decent Big Ten teams. Michigan has covered in eight
of the past nine meetings between these teams and Northwestern
has lost outright in 19 of the last 20 trips to Ann Arbor. Despite many
faults Michigan, owns a strong run defense and Northwestern
struggles if made one-dimensional. QB play has been an issue for
Michigan but the edge on the ground should make the difference in
the final home game at the Big House this year. MICHIGAN BY 10
WISCONSIN (-14) Minnesota 2:30 PM
After a brutal start to the Big Ten season Wisconsin is starting to
play better. The Badgers have won two of the last three and
probably should have won two weeks ago against Michigan State.
Wisconsin can still make a bowl game by winning out and Wisconsin
has won S/U in eleven of the last 13 meetings. After starting 7-1
Minnesota has dropped two games in a row and the schedule has to
be questioned for the Gophers. Although Wisconsin’s QB play has
been suspect the running game can carry the way, posting huge
numbers in recent weeks . Turnovers have started to turn the other
way for the Gophers after great fortune early in the year. UW BY 17
Wake Forest (-4) NC STATE 2:30 PM
Despite lousy offensive numbers Wake Forest is 4-2 in ACC play
and currently in first place in the Atlantic division. It has been a
tough year for NC State but the Wolfpack have covered in six of the
last seven games. Turnovers were a big boost for Wake Forest last
week and this has been a very closely contested series in recent
years. The defensive numbers are solid for Wake Forest but the
Deacons have not been a team that pulls away from opponents. NC
State has been a strong late season home underdog and this should
be a close game in the ACC. WAKE FOREST BY 3
CLEMSON (-11½) Duke 11:00 AM
Clemson owns just two wins against FBS teams this season and
only one ATS win all season. After starting 3-1, Duke has dropped
four of the last five des pite several competitive efforts. Duke has not
faced an easy schedule where in contrast Clemson has two FCS
wins padding what would be terrible offensive statistics on the
season. Clemson’s loss last week came in a second straight road
game but the Tigers likely will not find much enthusiasm for this
homecoming game, given how far below expectations the team has
performed. Look for Duke to keep pace. CLEMSON BY 4
North Carolina (-2½) MARYLAND 2:30 PM
Both teams are 3-2 in ACC play and in the thick of the conference
race. Maryland has had a few great games this season but the
Terrapins have not made adjustments well. North Carolina is coming
off a big win over Georgia Tech last week and the Heels continue to
excel despite numerous setbacks with injuries and one of the
toughest schedules in the nation. With RB Scott banged up
Maryland had no answers on the ground last week and although
UNC was severely out-gained on the ground last week the Tar
Heels defense found a way to win. UNC BY 7
Notre Dame (NL) NAVY @Baltimore, MD 11:00 AM
In three OTs Navy snapped a losing streak vs. Notre Dame that had
lasted over four decades. With revenge in mind and coming off a
misleading shutout loss marred by turnovers Notre Dame should be
in a good position this week. Navy has had two weeks to prepare for
this game and Midshipmen should have a dominant edge on the
ground but Notre Dame should have one of its best offensive games
against Navy’s defense which allows over 373 yards per game.
Notre Dame needs one more win to become bowl eligible and the
Irish may actually be undervalued. NOTRE DAME BY 13
Connecticut (-10) SYRACUSE 6:00 PM
The Orange could not hold an early lead last week falling to just 2-7
on the year. The bye week should help Connecticut to heal after
some key injuries in recent weeks but the road team has lost all four
meetings of this series. Statistically the Huskies appear to have
several major advantages in this match-up but Connecticut has
played a much easier schedule and the Huskies have not been the
same team away from home, including owing just one road ATS win
this season. Syracuse has posted several respectable efforts in
recent weeks despite ugly numbers. CONNECTICUT BY 7
ALABAMA (-19½) Mississippi State 11:30 AM
After squeaking out an OT win last week in a highly anticipated
game, Alabama now must face a tricky home game. Alabama has
clinched the West division and looking ahead to the Auburn game or
the SEC championship is a possibility. Mississippi State has had two
weeks to prepare for this game and the Bulldogs have won outright
the last two years in this series. Mississippi State also owns great
defensive numbers and the Tide have to be overvalued with the high
ranking in the polls. Alabama owns horrible recent numbers in the
home favorite role as well. ALABAMA BY 16
KENTUCKY (-4) Vanderbilt 7:00 PM
A familiar season map has played out for Vanderbilt with a hot start
and now four consecutive losses. Kentucky enters this game off a
very tough loss, playing Georgia down to the wire. Vanderbilt is one
game behind Kentucky in overall record but the Commodores have
more SEC wins and a higher strength of schedule ranking.
Vanderbilt has lost outright in four straight games in this series but
the margins have been very close. Both teams have great defensive
numbers but Kentucky is 2-6 ATS in the last eight home games.
Given the close call last week and Vanderbilt’s losing streak there
will be value with the dog in a fairly even match-up. VANDY BY 4
Texas A&M (NL) BAYLOR 3:00 PM
In terms of recent program prestige A&M has a big edge but the
reality is that these teams have very similar resumes on the season
and Baylor actually may have an edge. Baylor’s schedule has been
very difficult and the Bears have held its own with covers in six of
the last eight games despite few S/U wins. The Texas A&M run
defense has been among the worst nationally, allowing 214 yards
per game which should play to the strengths of the Baylor offense.
The Aggies are being out-gained by an average of 96 yards per
game and every win has been very narrow. Look for Baylor to
deliver a convincing win in this match-up. BAYLOR BY 14
New Mexico (PK) COLORADO STATE 1:00 PM
Last week’s loss knocked the Lobos out of bowl contention and this
could be a good situation for Colorado State, even though it has
been a long season. The Rams have a strong history as home
underdogs with a 23-10-1 record in the last 34 attempts and
consider that the last two home games for the CSU have come
against the two of the three elite teams in the conference. Early in
the year the Rams earned home wins and covers over respectable
teams with Houston and UNLV before the schedule toughened. New
Mexico has not won outside the state this season. CSU BY 10
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-15½) Toledo 1:00 PM
Both MAC squads own wins over Big Ten teams this year for an
impressive showing by the conference. After Toledo knocked off
Michigan they were smoked the following week so this could be a
problematic spot for the Broncos coming off the upset over Illinois.
Western Michigan was out-gained last week and the Broncos have
been a terrible ATS team as favorites, going 3-11 in the last 14
instances. Western Michigan has much better overall team statistics
but they have faced a weaker ranked schedule. Toledo has just two
wins but owns solid success in this series. WESTERN BY 11
LOUISIANA TECH (-12½) Utah State 1:30 PM
Sitting at 2-8 Utah State appears like one of the worst teams in the
nation but the schedule has been tough. Utah State was favored just
once all season long yet managed two outright wins and the Aggies
were not typically an easy team to pull away from. Louisiana Tech
gave its bowl hopes new life with back-to-back impressive wins,
shocking San Jose State with a shutout win last week. The formula
has been simple for the Bulldogs, run the ball and stop the run.
Coming off back-to-back big conference wins this could be a
letdown spot as Louisiana Tech will be a solid favorite in this matchup
and Utah State is not as bad as they appear. LA TECH BY 7
SOUTHERN MISS (-2½) East Carolina 2:00 PM
The Pirates are now 6-3 and will be back in the post-season but
there has been considerable drama the past two weeks. Southern
Miss has put together back-to-back wins against two-win teams and
the Eagles have been plus eight in turnovers in those two games.
Statistically East Carolina has dominated the past two weeks
despite needing OT for the victories and the changes to the
offensive game plan appear to be settling in. Southern Miss beat
East Carolina last season but a lot has changed for both programs
and this should actually be a mismatch. EAST CAROLINA BY 14
TULANE (-5) Uab 2:00 PM
After a promising start to the season Tulane has lost five straight
and injuries have decimated the units on both sides of the ball. UAB
owns a surprising win over Marshall this year but the Blazers have
covered in just two games this year. After allowing 70 points in the
last game the bye week may not be able to solve all the problems
for UAB. Tulane has played a tougher schedule and has been much
more competitive aside from a few rough games. UAB is 0-18 S/U
the last three seasons in road games. TULANE BY 13
Texas (-13½) KANSAS 11:30 AM
After starting the season 7-0 S/U and ATS the Longhorns have now
dropped three in a row against the number. Kansas has lost outright
in three of the last four games and the two remaining games will be
very tough. Kansas has not defeated Texas in 70 years and through
a tougher schedule the Longhorns have posted huge numbers.
Texas is averaging 44 points per game and the defense has been
tough against the run. Both teams have allowed big numbers in the
air but that is a given considering the powerful passing games in the
Big 12 this year. Look for the KU slide to continue. TEXAS BY 21
Missouri (-26½) IOWA STATE 5:30 PM
With two losses Missouri is not where they hoped at this point in the
year but the opportunity is still there. Missouri can win out and enter
the Big 12 title game with a shot at an automatic BCS slot and this
game can not be taken lightly. Iowa State has lost eight consecutive
games but this has been a problematic series for the Tigers, with
two of the last four going to OT and Missouri losing as double-digit
favorites in the last visit to Ames. Iowa State’s pass defense has
been even worse than Missouri’s maligned unit and the Cyclones do
not have the means to keep up in a shootout. MISSOURI BY 31
OREGON STATE (-3) California 2:30 PM
The Beavers have three tough games remaining but if they win out
they will be Pac-10 champions. California could not move the ball
last week to fall short against USC yet again. Defense has been the
key for Oregon State, allowing just 295 yards per game and this is a
tough spot for the Bears. California certainly will not overlook
Oregon State but this is a tough sandwich spot with rival Stanford up
next and the hyped USC game last week, making this a second
straight road game. Oregon State owns very tough home field
advantage with a 9-3 ATS record in the last twelve. OSU BY 10
OREGON (-3½) Arizona 5:30 PM
The Ducks needed a late score to knock off Stanford last week but
Oregon continues to pile up the wins as one of the elite teams in the
Pac-10. Arizona has taken a big step this year, finally bowl eligible
under Coach Stoops. This is a key revenge game for Oregon as last
season Arizona knocked off what looked like a BCS-bound Ducks
team, injuring Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon in the process.
Arizona may have a slight defensive edge but Oregon’s dominating
running game that produces over 270 yards per game should carry
the victory. This will be the second week in a row in the northwest
for Arizona, always a tough situation. OREGON BY 13
Ucla (-7½) WASHINGTON 9:15 PM
The Huskies are 0-9 with horrendous numbers on the year and the
morale is very low for the team and university. Washington has
played by far the toughest schedule in the nation however so in
reality Washington may not be as bad as it seems. Washington is 1-
8 ATS on the season but at some point the go-against value will
plateau and the next two weeks feature a more level playing field.
This will be Coach Willingham’s final home game and UCLA has
had several dud efforts this season as well. Both defenses are
giving up a ton of points and the Bruins are a tough to trust,
considering UCLA has been favored just once all year. UCLA BY 3
Georgia (-8) AUBURN 2:30 PM
It has been an incredibly disappointing season for Auburn but the
two remaining games present redemptive opportunities. Auburn’s
offense had decent numbers last week but still had three turnovers
despite playing a FCS team. The Auburn defense has not been as
strong as initially expected and Auburn has not covered in any game
since the opening weekend. Georgia is 8-2 but the Bulldogs have
not been at the elite level that many expected. This will incredibly be
a fourth consecutive week playing away from home and the
schedule has caught up to the Bulldogs . GEORGIA BY 7
Byu (-4) AIR FORCE 2:30 PM
The Cougars have failed to cover in six consecutive games and
quietly Air Force is 8-2 on the season, with just one loss in
conference play. BYU has had great success in this series with
convincing wins the past four years and a 15-6 ATS record the last
21 meetings. Air Force should own a solid rushing edge in the game
but this has not been a good match-up for the Falcons. Both teams
have faced very weak schedules but BYU has more potential to post
strong offensive numbers and has the series edge. BYU BY 10
FLORIDA (-21½) South Carolina 2:30 PM
Many consider Florida to be the best team in the country and
through a challenging schedule the Gators have posted great
numbers, with the offense starting to click in recent games. The
South Carolina defense has been extraordinarily tough this season,
particularly against the pass but the Gamcocks have not been able
to knock off any of the elite teams on the schedule despite each loss
coming in a very tight game. Florida has been dominant as a home
favorite and the Gators have won outright in 15 of the last 16
meetings between these teams. FLORIDA BY 24
NEVADA (NL) San Jose State 3:00 PM
San Jose State owns a solid record but the schedule has been weak
and it showed last week with a shutout loss at home. Nevada is
coming off a huge Friday night performance, knocking off Fresno
State with a huge rushing game. Nevada is the nation’s leading
rushing team, averaging 324 yards per game and although the
defense is allowing 32 points per game the Wolfpack have been a
solid performer, now just a win away from bowl eligibility. Nevada
owns dominating spread records at home, including a 14-3 mark in
the last 17 as home favorites. This is also a revenge game for the
Wolfpack after a narrow loss at home last year. NEVADA BY 21
MARSHALL (NL) Central Florida 3:30 PM
An early lead was erased for UCF last week as the offense could not
convert third downs. Marshall played competitively against ECU last
week in an OT loss and the Thundering Herd are a much more
dangerous team than the record indicates. Central Florida has
struggled on offense but the defense is capable of being one of the
top units in the conference with several strong outings this year.
Marshall can be a tough home team and the Herd has much more
scoring potential although coming off a tough loss is a concern for
the team’s emotional state. MARSHALL BY 14
Boise State (NL) IDAHO 4:00 PM
Only three more games separate Boise State from a perfect regular
season but unless Utah stumbles the Broncos likely will not find a
BCS bowl ticket. Both Idaho schools have faced incredibly weak
schedules but despite being a heavy favorite in most games Boise
State has lost ATS just twice this year. Boise State is actually 4-0
S/U and ATS on the road this season and this will not be an
intimidating venue for the Broncos. Idaho is just 2-7 in the last nine
games as home underdogs and although Idaho has had two weeks
to prepare for this game Boise should cruise. BOISE ST BY 45
Tulsa (NL) HOUSTON 7:00 PM
Tulsa beat Houston 56-7 last season and although the Cougars
have a new coaching staff the game will still be in the memory.
Tulsa has had a bye week to recover from its first loss of the season
which can be a problematic situation as teams lack the same focus
after a major season goal has been defeated. Houston has won four
of the last five games and the offense is capable of keeping pace
with the high-powered Tulsa squad. Neither team has played a
tough schedule but there are FCS teams that have played tougher
ranked schedules than Tulsa has faced. HOUSTON BY 7
FRESNO STATE (-15) New Mexico State 4:00 PM
After opening the season with great promise, Fresno State has
proceeded to go 0-8 ATS in the last eight games and the Bulldogs
were outright losers the past two weeks. Bowl eligibility is a question
right now for a Fresno squad that was considered a BCS bowl
contender. New Mexico State has failed S/U and ATS each of the
last four weeks. Fresno State is 3-13 ATS the last 16 home games
and the horrible defensive numbers will continue to haunt Fresno
State in what could be another underachieving loss. New Mexico
State lacks a quality running game but can score. FRESNO BY 6
Usc (-22) STANFORD 6:00 PM
The Trojans delivered last week in a big game and this could be
another tough spot against Stanford after shockingly losing to the
Cardinal last season as huge favorites. Stanford has five wins but
must pull a major upset in the next two weeks to gain bowl
consideration. USC has a bye week next week so there will be no
loss of focus looking ahead to the Notre Dame game. The USC
defense has been incredibly dominant allowing just over 200 yards
per game and an absurd average of 6.67 points per game. Stanford
can run the ball well but it will be tough to score. USC BY 28
Nebraska (-6½) KANSAS STATE 2:30 PM
Through a brutal schedule Nebraska has had mixed results this
season but last week the Huskers delivered a nice victory. Kansas
State has announced that a coaching change will be made as the
Wildcats have struggled to keep pace against the Big 12 this season
with just one conference win. Last season Nebraska hung 73 points
on the Wildcats so much like last week’s game had importance for
Nebraska, this will be a revenge spot for K-State. Nebraska is just 2-
6 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series and the turnover prone
Huskers could be in for a tough follow-up game. K-STATE BY 6
Oklahoma State (-17½) COLORADO 7:00 PM
The Cowboys were a trendy pick last week catching Texas Tech in a
possible letdown spot but it was not to be as OSU could not keep
up. Colorado held on for a narrow win last week but the Buffaloes
have failed ATS in seven consecutive games. Oklahoma State has
an explosive offense but this is a very tough schedule spot facing
the third road game in four weeks and the second straight game
away from home. Oklahoma State has an incredible ATS record this
season but the value is gone and the bounce back win will not come
as easy as many will expect. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 10
SOUTH FLORIDA (-7½) Rutgers 11:00 AM
Both teams were considered Big East contenders but it has been a
disappointing season for both sides. Rutgers started the season 1-5
but has rebounded with wins in the last three games. South Florida
has had the reverse occur with a 5-0 start and losses in three of the
last four. South Florida owns incredible defensive numbers, allowing
just over 280 yards per game and the offense has been productive
with average of418 yards per game and over 30 points per game.
Rutgers has one of the worst running games in the nation despite
being a great rushing team in recent years. Turnovers have been
problematic for both teams and value may be back on a USF squad
that was projected to be the best team in the Big East. USF BY 14
FLORIDA STATE (-7) Boston College 7:00 PM
The Seminoles have not been given national power status in several
years but quietly FSU is 7-2 and tied for first in the competitive ACC
Atlantic. FSU is 5-12 ATS in the last 17 as home favorites. In a
horrible weather game then #2 BC lost to Florida State last season
so this may be a revenge spot for the Eagles despite coming off a
big win last week against Notre Dame. Florida State’s defense has
produced great numbers this season but Boston College has not
been far behind. The key in this game may be Florida State’s
running game. FSU averages 205 yards per game, an inflated
number from two FCS wins, but still a much more potent attack than
BC offers on the ground. FLORIDA STATE BY 10
Ohio State (-9) ILLINOIS 11:00 AM
After a Rose Bowl season last year Illinois has taken a step back
this year, still battling for bowl eligibility. The Illini have potential but
consistency and turnovers have been problems. Last season Illinois
won in Columbus to end the Buckeyes undefeated season hopes so
this will be a big game for both teams. Ohio State is 13-2 the last 15
games as road favorites and Illinois can be tough to trust, although
the Illini have not lost consecutive games all season. Illinois can still
post solid production but turnovers have been a problem. Though
Ohio State won by a solid margin last week the game was close
early and the Buckeyes have had trouble with athletic speed
oriented offenses in recent seasons. OHIO STATE BY 7
Utah (NL) SAN DIEGO STATE 7:00 PM
A miraculous win last week keeps the perfect season alive and Utah
is on track for a BCS bowl bid. The Utes would not be blamed for
overlooking this game ahead to next week’s critical game against
BYU. San Diego State could make a strong argument for being the
worst team in the nation. At 1-9 the Aztecs average 17 points per
game while allowing 36 points per game while being out-gained by
an average of 170 yards per game. Utah has solid numbers as a
road favorite but the line should be out of control considering what is
at stake and how easily San Diego State has been scored on. Look
for a Utah win but this is not a favorable spot. UTAH BY 28
UTEP (-9) Smu 8:00 PM
The Miners are 1-9 in the last ten chances as home favorites but
UTEP was a convincing winner last week as a solid underdog.
Turnovers were key for UTEP as the defense still allowed close to
400 yards and on the season the Miners are among the worst
nationally on the defensive side, averaging 473 yards per game
allowed. Both of these teams feature productive passing games but
SMU’s offense is allowing 485 yards per game. SMU has played the
more challenging schedule and despite a 1-9 S/U record the
Mustangs have been fairly competitive in most games as four of the
last six losses came by single-digits. UTEP BY 7
ARIZONA STATE (NL) Washington State 4:30 PM
Despite another lopsided loss Washington State did at least find the
end zone a few times last week. The Cougars only had 208 yards of
offense so the 28-point effort was a bit misleading. Arizona State
snapped an ugly six-game losing streak last week and this should
be a great opportunity for another win. Arizona State is actually 8-2
ATS in the last ten instances as double-digit favorites and although
the overall numbers are not good on offense ASU should deliver a
solid outing this week. Washington State is allowing over 50 points
per game and the Cougars also have the worst turnover margin in
the nation, so little is going right. ARIZONA STATE BY 35
Middle Tennessee St (-3) W. KENTUCKY 12:00 PM
Last week’s win was a big one for Middle Tennessee State as the
Raiders have had a very tight recent series with UL-Monroe.
Western Kentucky has not been terribly competitive in this
transitional year and they have failed to cover in all three lined home
games this season. Western Kentucky had just 216 yards of offense
last week and the Blue Raider defense has been solid this year,
particularly against the passing game. Last season Western
Kentucky beat MTSU so revenge is in order. MTSU BY 13
UL-Lafayette (-2) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3:00 PM
UL-Lafayette fell to 0-4 in non-conference games this season but the
Ragin’ Cajuns are still undefeated in Sun Belt play. Last year’s
conference champion Florida Atlantic is in need of a big win this
week as conference play started out poorly. Last season Lafayette
took FAU to OT but came up just short. Florida Atlantic played a
brutal early season schedule and should not be counted out of the
conference race yet. ULL has great rushing numbers but the
conference schedule has been favorable so far. FAU BY 10
MISSISSIPPI (-21) UL-Monroe 5:00 PM
Ole Miss has had two weeks to ready for this game and the Rebels
are coming off back-to-back SEC wins. At 5-4 it has been a solid
first year for Coach Nutt and a strong finish and a bowl bid is still
very possible. A big game at LSU is on deck but UL-Monroe will not
get overlooked after the Warhawks knocked off Alabama last
season. UL-M suffered a tough loss last week in a close game and it
is hard to see this game staying close for long. The statistics do not
look that appealing but Ole Miss has gone through the toughest part
of the schedule already. OLE MISS BY 21
LSU (-19) Troy 7:00 PM
This make-up game provides some intrigue as Troy has been
among the top Sun Belt teams in recent years. LSU enters this
game off a very disappointing loss in last week’s big game. Troy is
less threatening with the injuries suffered but this could be a closer
game than expected and Troy has delivered a few major upsets in
recent seasons. LSU BY 14
- 11/16/2008, 1:00 PM 