UFC Sat Nov 15th
I'll be in Vegas for the week, Nov 15-22nd. I'm not going to the fight= too friggen expensive and I"m too late.
However, I gotta ride something. Any thoughts from the UFC cappers?
posted by sherlock37
7 replies
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Need to check out the entire card. Only three lines out
Brock Lesnar -110
Randy Couture -110
I know PC will say never bet against Randy Couture, but im on Lesnar here. You know Cauture will come with a solid game plan, but what will it be? Im thinking he is going to try and frustrate Lesnar on the feet than try to put him on his back. There is no way in hell you want to be under Lesnar. MIr got the kneebar, but that was risky business and he was almost stopped. Problem is, Lesanr is enough of an accomplished wrestler to avoid ever being put on his back. I expect a similiar approach to the Sylvia fight. Win the fight on the feet, then take him down as fatigue kicks in. Problem i see is that Randy caught Tim early and he was never really the same again. Not much is known about Lesnars chin, but if he has one and something tells me he does can Couture afford to trade for 5 rounds with a man of that size. I dont think so. Couture is a small heavywieght, Lesnar is just too damn big and athletic. Couture has suprised in the past, but he is 45 yo (i think) and its hard for me to see how he wins this fight. 1.5u for me here.
Joe Stevenson +160
Kenny Florian -185
No play here yet. I would lean on Ken-Flo. He is the more well-rounded fighter. I used to disrespect his game, but he is tough as nails, comes with smart gameplans and has great footwork. If Joe Daddy can impose his will and put Florian down, he is dangerous from the bottom as well. I can see Florian keeping this one on the feet and kicking Stevenson apart. I am going to watch this line, it is a small play under -200, gonna keep an eye out and see if it dips in the -50/-60 range, but wouldnt be suprised if -85 is the best your gonna get at this point.
Demian Maia -245
Nate Quarry +175
Something tells me this line is too high. But I think my first instincts may be wrong. Demian Maia may have the best mma jiu jitsu in the world. But I have yet to see him against a dangerous striker. I know Quarry has power, but since he has comeback from the injury I was not impressed against Pete Sell and the Starnes fight doesnt really prove anything. Quarry best chance will be to overwhelm Maia on the feet, but i think Maia can hold his own. This line seems accurate. Even if Maia desearves to be in the -300 range, the book would probably get too much Quaryy action, and i dont know if a prepared to lay the juice here. This fight will go a long way to proving where both of these guys are in their respective careers.
posted by terpkeg
Nov. 8 2008 12:52pm -
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"I can see Florian keeping this one on the feet and kicking Stevenson apart." Should say picking, i dont necesarily think he will be using a lot of kicks. I think you see his hands.
posted by terpkeg
Nov. 8 2008 12:55pm -
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HA...this is the first time I'm seriously considering fading Captain America Terp....
Sherlock..UFC betting has become too heavy. The last 4 UFC's for me, I won't lay -200 or above so I've stayed away. You don't get the value you used to either. I'm still bitter that Fitch didn't get +200 or better against GSP. So, until I identify some fighters that I can catch with dog juice, I won't lay the heavy favorites. I have 3 plays for this card but like terp, waiting on more lines. There is also a late fight scratch possiblity as of Tuesday morning and that has taken one of the lines down. I'll be back with a play on Lesnar/Couture and two other fights.
Have fun out there. If you go to Tao at Venetian, ask for Brittany (spelled that way they have two) to sign you up for a TAO V.I.P. card and personal tour. I promise you won't be disappointed. Expensive..but happy!
posted by pc7588
Nov. 11 2008 8:51am -
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Adding Marc Bocek over Alvin Robinson 2u/1.7u - -115 Bocek has really impressed me with his toughness against edgar and danzig. robinson wins the majority of his fights by decision, but bodek is a highly decorated grappler. He should not sub bocek. Robinson does not have the size to over power bocek. Bocek had edgar rocked at one point and i think he should be in the -170 range.
Just missed Mccrory, i set the line at Hazlett -175/+175, opened at -255, while i was putting it in it dropped from -240 to -200. If i can get +200 again will take Mcrory for .5u, but laying off for now.
Also, i think Gurgel will have a great fight coming off of his immensely disappointing sub at the hands of Cole Miller. I fight he had won but was tapped with 12 sec left. Was hoping to get the +, so if it get there (opened gurgel -170) will hit it for 1u.
posted by terpkeg
Nov. 12 2008 6:26pm -
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"terpkeg":20zxgo9p
robinson wins the majority of his fights by decision, but bodek is a highly decorated grappler. He should not sub bocek. .
should say submission, not decision
posted by terpkeg
Nov. 12 2008 6:30pm -
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Adding Maia over Quarry 3u/1.3 - i know i said the line was right above, but after further review, Maia should win this fight 80% of the time. Quarry was being out stuck by Pete Sell last year. His stand-up is not fluid enough to keep Maia off of him. I beleive Maia will be able to get inside and take this fight to the mat, where he will methodically advance position and finish. I think this is the actually "puncher's chance" fight and 20% may be generous. You can get Maia -225 at 5dimes right now reduced lines.
Also, Stephens over Dos Anjos 2u/1.4u - -140 at 5d. I watched some Dos Anjos today and basically, he beats up on guys that are small compared to the 155ers in the UFC. Stephens is huge and will overpower Dos Anjos. I think Stephens is athletic enough to stay off his back, will keep tghe fight standing, hurt Dos Anjos and finsh with gnp.
Just to add something regarding bocek.robinson, although robinson looks jacked, i think he is the smaller of the two men and you will not see a reply of his gnp beating of gurgel as he will not be able to keep bocek down if he does get the take down.
FUll Card UFC 91
Maia over Quarry 3u/1.3u
Stephens over Dos Anjos 2u/1.4u
Bocek over Robinson 2u/1.7u
Lesner over Couture 1.5u/1.3u
lotta chalk, but just where i see the value
If McCrory hits +200 will put .5u on him.
posted by terpkeg
Nov. 15 2008 2:53pm -
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Thanks for the picks.
I only bet Florian, as I was too late for the undercard and I didn't have an opinion on Lesnar/Couture.
I hear it was a good fight, but damn, the tickets were pricey!
posted by sherlock37
Nov. 24 2008 10:43am