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   KEVIN O’NEILL’S

   THE MAX

   The Maximum Profit Football Weekly

   • Volume 9 Issue 12 November 5-10, 2008 •

   SELECTIONS: November 5-10, 2008

   College Football

   Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

   Northern Illinois (+10) over Ball State

   Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Odd Wednesday night game, but once baseball ends

   there’s a lot of midweek games in a conference

   desperate for exposure. Northern Illinois better get

   used to it. The Huskies are playing four straight

   games on either Tuesday or Wednesday nights. And

   the first one is the toughest, as NIU takes on the top

   team in the league, the Ball State Cardinals.

   Undefeated, with wins over Navy and Indiana, Ball State

   has a high-powered passing attack led by Nate Davis.

   Davis is logging 66% completions, a TD/INT ratio of 15/5,

   and 8.9 yards per pass attempt. He has been bothered by

   the career-ending injury to top target Dante Love only

   slightly. Davis is obviously outstanding. But this is no

   walkover for Ball State. Northern Illinois is a fine three-loss

   team, with competitive losses at Minnesota, at Western

   Michigan, and at Tennessee, all by 4 or less, all spreadcovering

   defeats. Offering a lot of deception, multiple

   formations, and a varied attack make NIU difficult to

   defend. In their game-clinching drive against Bowling

   Green, the Huskies operated out of five different

   formations. The various quarterbacks they’ve had to use

   this season, and the different styles of those quarterbacks,

   means that opponents have to prepare for plenty of

   different looks.

   But the key to this selection is Northern Illinois’ pass

   defense. With a QB as accomplished as Davis, you have to

   be able to slow down the pass. The Huskies are uniquely

   qualified to do that. NIU has what is clearly the best pass

   defense in the conference. They allow only 5.4 yards per

   pass attempt, 6 interceptions and only 7 touchdown

   passes, all outstanding numbers. In conference play it

   drops to 4.8 yards per pass attempt. They are easily the

   best pass defense that Davis has faced, as Ball State’s two

   top non-conference opponents both have poor pass

   defenses, with Navy allowing 8.5 yards per attempt and

   Indiana permitting 8.0. Will the quality of this defense

   mean that it’s finally time for the loss of his top target to

   come into play?

   When you look at results in conference, these opponents

   are pretty equal. Northern Illinois has close losses against

   better opponents (Minnesota and Tennessee) than anyone

   Ball State has played. These teams have blown out both

   mutual opponents. Ball State has beaten Toledo 31-0 and

   Eastern Michigan 38-16. It was Northern Illinois over

   Toledo 38-7 and Eastern Michigan 37-0. You would expect

   that in the same conference teams would have more than

   two mutual opponents by now, but Toledo and EMU is all

   there is. Jerry Kill, the first year Northern Illinois coach was

   known for pulling off upsets over more talented teams in

   1-AA, and is 3-0 to the number as an underdog here. From

   what we know about him and what he’s showing, it would

   be no surprise if Kill were coaching in the Big 10 or Big 12

   in a few years. Northern Illinois hangs around for a long

   time. Ball State by only 4.

   Saturday, November 8th, 2008

   Purdue (+10) over @Michigan State

   Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

   Taking the Boilermakers here is not something I relish. The

   team is just 3-6 on the year, and come off a 48-42 win

   only because they played a Michigan squad that is in the

   throes of a meltdown of historic proportions. Freshman QB

   Justin Siller led the attack completing 21 of 34 passes for

   266 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions and ran

   the ball 15 times for 77 yards and another touchdown.

   Sounds nice, until you learn that Siller was a backup

   running back only three weeks ago. The regular starting

   QB Curtis Painter is listed as day-to-day with a separated

   shoulder. The Boilermakers played with little emotion until

   last week. Head man Joe Tiller is in his last season of a

   productive 12-year stint at West Lafayette and his players

   seem to have checked out much as their retiring coach

   has.

   But this selection is all about Michigan State. The Spartans

   are off a 25-24 come from behind win over Wisconsin. MSU

   entered the game ranked #22 in the AP poll and are sure

   to move up this week. But the Spartans have achieved

   their lofty position largely on the back of Javon Ringer and

   a whole lotta luck. Its not often an 8-2 team gets

   outrushed by a large margin, but the Spartans as a team

   run the ball for 3.6 yards per carry and give up 4.4. RB

   Javon Ringer easily leads the nation in carries with 321.

   That workload has brought the senior to edge of physical

   breakdown. Two weeks ago Ringer missed practice time

   with a sore hamstring, which caused him to miss some

   plays in the second half against Michigan. In the same

   game Ringer banged up his right shoulder, which had been

   operated on over the offseason. Last week Ringer caught a

   bad case of the flu and within a couple of days had lost 10

   pounds. The virus took its toll and against the Badgers

   Ringer totaled just 54 yards on 21 carries, easily his worst

   game of the campaign.

   Mark Dantonio just doesn't have anyone else to give the

   ball to. And MSU's offensive issues don't stop there. QB

   Brian Hoyer is completing under 50% of his passes, though

   the receivers certainly deserve a share of the blame; they

   dropped at least 7 passes against Wisconsin and have had

   problems holding on to the ball all year.

   There is plenty of tech to back up this selection, but my

   favorite is a negative 25-53 ATS system that plays against

   Michigan State. College teams off the tension and

   excitement of a 1-point victory especially if they don't

   benefit from the ego boost of a perfect season record. The

   Boilermakers also benefit from a 43-11 ATS system derived

   from the snapping of their extended losing streak. This

   system is 4-1 since I started using it a couple of years ago.

   With a season ending game against Penn State on deck

   the Spartans need this one to lay claim to a prestigious

   New Year's Day bowl game. But Michigan State's best

   player is damaged goods and the 8-2 record is a mirage.

   I'd much rather be playing on another Big 10 team but the

   Spartans are pretty close to an automatic fade right now.

   Take the points. Michigan State by 1.

   Virginia (+4½) over @Wake Forest

   Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Have to feel terribly for Virginia’s workhorse running

   back Cedric Peerman. After an OT touchdown by

   Miami, the bruising Peerman fumbled on the ensuing

   possession, and when a Hurricane fell on it, the

   game was Miami’s. It was the first fumble in the

   senior Peerman’s career, and the timing couldn’t

   have been worse. Virginia was flat in the ballgame,

   but you can’t really blame the Cavaliers, as they had

   notched four consecutive upset wins, covering the

   spread by a combined 92½ in those games. They

   were due for a letdown and it happened on

   Saturday. After a horrific start to the season,

   punctuated by an offseason of player attrition and

   early season legal problems of their then-starting

   quarterback, Virginia has become a very tough

   opponent. Certainly a tremendous coaching job by

   Al Groh.

   Can Virginia bounce back emotionally after the

   Miami loss? UVA quarterback Marc Verica thinks so.

   "It's a terrible feeling," said Verica. "I'm going to

   work as hard as I can to not have this feeling again.

   It's disappointing, but that's what happens when

   you fail to take control of the game. So, all we can

   do is keep fighting and get ready for Wake."

   There’s a little bit of buzz about Wake Forest’s

   return to the I-formation on Saturday but that

   excitement ignores how fortunate that the Duke win

   was and how Wake’s offensive line continues to

   struggle mightily. The Demon Deacons eked out an

   overtime win over Duke on Saturday, but it was a fortunate

   one. The field-goal margin was a result of a 4-1 turnover

   edge against Duke. All of Wake Forest’s scoring came on

   drives that began in Duke’s territory. From a fumble of the

   opening kickoff to a missed 42-yard field goal to end

   regulation, Duke made mistake after mistake. On their

   home field Wake Forest was outpassed slightly, outrushed

   145-114, and had a 21-16 first down disadvantage. Even

   before that, Wake Forest was in the lower echelon of

   nearly every meaningful category, entering the game with

   a horrible 4.3 yards per play average, placing them 113th

   out of the 120 1-A teams in that vital statistic. Wake

   Forest has been an equal opportunity offensive offender,

   111th in yards per rush (2. and 89th in yards per pass.

   Riley Skinner isn’t having a good year, and isn’t getting

   much support.

   That 145-114 rushing deficit Saturday is not a good sign

   for the Deacons, as Duke averaged only 2.8 yards per rush

   entering the game. With a motivated Peerman looking to

   make up for his fumble on Saturday, Virginia should control

   the game on the ground. The Cavaliers have simply been

   playing better ball than the Deacons, and without the

   game being handed to them on a silver platter the way

   Duke did, there is little reason to expect that Wake Forest

   will wake up and win by any sort of margin today. The

   likelihood of a low scoring game makes points valuable

   here. Take the points with Virginia. Virginia by 3.

   @Vanderbilt (+24) over Florida

   Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

   Certainly takes a lot of intestinal fortitude to

   fade the Gators after that national TV

   performance this past Saturday. A lot of us

   knew that Georgia would run out of gas sooner

   or later, but no one expected a 49-10

   massacre. Now the Gators must continue to

   win and do so impressively to impress the

   pollsters and computers. These two factors

   combine to give us a number that is

   astronomically high for this matchup.

   Vanderbilt took 15-16 from Georgia “ between

   the hedges” a couple of weeks back, and

   played the Bulldogs very close. Now AT HOME,

   they are taking 8 points more against Florida.

   Basic math says that the linesmaker is telling

   us that the Gators are about 17 better than

   Georgia on a neutral field. I don’t care how

   bad the Bulldogs were beaten on Saturday,

   that isn’t the case and this is a huge overlay.

   Vandy was the talk of the nation early on with

   a home upset of South Carolina and then a

   road win at Ole Miss. Both of those teams are

   quality squads and those wins are no less

   impressive now than they were then. The

   Commodores are a well- coached team that

   plays a physical brand of football. They are allowing

   a very respectable 4.8 yards per play in the rugged

   SEC, and have not allowed more than 24 points in

   any game all season. Florida is an offensive

   monster, but the Commodore defense is the type

   that is always in position and just may be able to

   keep UF’s speed in front of them by not overpursuing

   on misdirection or biting on Tebow’s fakes.

   Vandy has lost only 2 of their last 17 conference

   home games by more than today’s margin, and 2 of

   the last 3 games between these two have been

   decided by a touchdown or less, including a 25-19

   nailbiter at this site against the ’06 Gator National

   Championship team. This Commodore team is

   better than that one, and is taking over 3

   touchdowns.

   This is an excellent for the Commodores as they

   come in off of a bye week against a Florida team

   that may be ripe for a letdown off of their biggest

   win of the season. Rested home dog w/revenge is

   a lethal combination this time of year and usually

   that system gets stronger when we are dealing with

   a quality team. The Duke loss was on the heels of a

   war at Georgia, and gives us more value here. The

   line is simply too high. Florida by only 17.

   @Florida St (-6½) over Clemson

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   What was a little family rivalry is no longer the case.

   This match-up used to be the annual “Bowden Bowl”

   with old man Bobby coaching off against his son

   Tommy. But after Clemson opened the season at 3-

   3, Tommy was fired. So the scribes will have to

   actually write about the game this year, and not

   rehash the Bowden family angle for the week. And

   that will be a good thing for Florida St. For the first

   time in nine years, Bobby and his club can prepare

   for this game normally without the continuous

   distraction of the repetitive family questions. There

   was always more pressure on Bobby and Florida St

   because his teams were always superior. In fact,

   the Seminoles were 14½-point favorites or more in

   five of the nine meetings. The gap has closed over

   the last couple of years as Clemson’s talent got

   better, but Florida St was still favored in every one

   of those games. Now, without the awkwardness of

   coaching against his son, this becomes just another

   game.

   Tough break for the Seminoles and their backers

   (includes me) last week. With 52 seconds to go,

   Florida St was down 3 and had the ball on Georgia

   Tech’s 5-yard line. And on a play that looked like it

   was going to be the go ahead touchdown, junior

   fullback Marcus Sims fumbled the ball into the end

   zone and it was recovered by Georgia Tech. The

   Seminoles were somewhat fortunate to even be in a

   position to win considering they were down 31-20

   with just 6 minutes to play. But they showed a lot of fight

   and resiliency. which is something past editions of this

   team rarely displayed. And even though they lost, and had

   a ton of trouble stopping Paul Johnson’s triple option, the

   Seminoles still out-yarded Tech 384-343 and out-first

   downed the Jackets 18-14. The triple option is tough to

   stop, especially if you haven’t faced it in over 20 years:

   “We haven’t played against it since Pat Dye ran it at

   Auburn in the middle or late ’80s. Not many people run it

   anymore. It’s not considered stylish,” said Bowden. So we

   can dismiss the 288 rushing yards allowed on 6.4 yards per

   rush Florida St allowed, and give them a pass because of

   their inexperience against the tough to stop triple option.

   Clemson has been competitive in their two games under

   interim coach Dabo Swinney. They were 4-point losers at

   home to Georgia Tech, and last week beat Boston College

   27-21. But the sledding gets much tougher here as they’ll

   face a Florida St defense that lays over the two teams they

   just played. And with Clemson’s strength of running the

   football with James Davis and CJ Spiller being nonexistent

   over the last three games (21, 51, and 87 yards

   combined), don’t expect the Tigers to have any success by

   being one-dimensional to the pass. Clemson has beat

   Florida St in the last three meetings, but look for that mini

   run to snap here. That, along with Bobby Bowden being

   41-24 against the spread off a loss makes the Seminoles

   the play here. Florida St by 14.

   Notre Dame (+3½) over @Boston College

   Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Boston College’s offense is really struggling. Despite

   a 4-2 turnover advantage they became only the

   second 1-A team to lose to Clemson. The Eagles

   offense notched only 11 first downs with the passing

   game being the main culprit. BC gained only 116

   yards on 39 pass attempts. You’ve got to look long

   and hard for a team that logs less than 3 yards per

   passing attempt in a game, but the Eagles managed

   to pull it off. BC ranks in the lower third of NCAA

   ratings in most important offensive statistical

   categories. Chris Crane is proving not to be the

   answer for BC and in Boston sports parlance, Matty

   Ryan’s not walking through that door.

   BC has good defensive numbers, but let’s take a

   look at their schedule. They’ve played Kent State,

   Georgia Tech (before the Techsters started to “get”

   Paul Johnson’s system), Central Florida, Rhode

   Island, NC State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and

   Clemson. It would take some research to find a BCS

   conference team that has played a weaker slate of

   offenses. The only attack with any pep that BC has

   faced was North Carolina, a game BC lost 45-24.

   Notre Dame’s defense has been impressive most of

   the season, and their offense has picked up the pace

   significantly as young talent has developed. Charlie

   Weis’ crew only logged 391 yards against a Pitt

   secondary that played inspired football after their

   humiliation at the hands of Rutgers. But that was

   the lowest Irish offensive output since their

   September 20th failure up at Michigan State. And

   while Notre Dame’s schedule has been criticized,

   some of their opponents have proven to be better

   than they appeared at the time, and they aren’t

   playing paycheck games. Since their opener against

   San Diego State the Irish have played nothing but

   BCS conference competition. Notre Dame’s offense

   is in a groove, and will present a significant

   challenge for a BC defense that hasn’t seen many

   sophisticated aerial attacks this season.

   BC fans are generally fair-weather in nature but this is the

   game they really get up for. And it isn’t a rivalry of equals.

   But that is most dangerous when the “little brother” team

   brings more to the table than these Eagles do. If you’re

   concerned with Notre Dame fatigue off the 4 overtime loss

   to Pitt, be aware that the Irish defense was on the field for

   77 plays, compared to 64 plays for BC’s defense last week.

   While I don’t mean to sound like a horse handicapper, this

   is Notre Dame’s third game off a layoff, so they should still

   have a certain amount of freshness after that week off.

   The loss to Pitt insures Notre Dame’s full attention here, as

   they are in danger of falling from BCS bowl territory

   (however undeserved that would have been) and need to

   win this one to remain at the Gator Bowl level. Take the

   points with Notre Dame in a game that the Irish have no

   excuse not to win. Notre Dame by 4.

   @LSU (+3½) over Alabama

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   Alabama is the new # 1 team in the country, a

   spot they last held in 1980. The Crimson Tide

   is the fifth different team to sit atop the polls

   this year, and the previous four all have

   something in common. They all were ousted

   after losing a game on the road. And

   according to our good friend Marc Lawrence,

   his database states that “since 1980, teams

   that start out the season at 8-0 or better who

   taste defeat for the first time have done so

   away from home in 75 of 102 occurrences.”

   And this is Alabama’s last road game of the

   season, so if they are to stumble, history tells

   us this would be the spot.

   Arkansas St was a very popular play last week

   getting over three touchdowns against Alabama.

   And taking those points was very logical. You had

   Alabama in a big letdown spot after their win at

   Tennessee and a game at LSU on deck. The Tide

   had no such letdown though winning 35-0 while

   holding the Red Wolves to just 157 yards of total

   offense. It looks like a dominating win on the

   surface, but a couple of red flags should be raised.

   Without mountainous nose tackle Terrence Cody,

   Arkansas St had success running the ball straight up

   the gut, gaining 89 yards on 24 carries when you

   eliminate the sack yardage. Quarterback John

   Parker Wilson saw a ton of blitzes, and he had

   trouble with them. He hit only 15 of 28 pass

   attempts for an unimpressive 152 yards. Now you

   can credit those two poor efforts to the letdown

   theory, but when facing lesser talent from the Sun

   Belt conference you just shouldn’t see it. If Alabama

   was on cruise control for Arkansas St, do they just

   expect that they’ll turn it on in Baton Rouge? That’s

   a big challenge considering they’ll be facing much

   bigger and much faster athletes at LSU.

   Les Miles is not a coach we’re too fond of. He

   makes a lot of questionable decisions throughout

   the course of a game. But one thing you have to

   give him is the fact that he’ll give his team every

   chance to win a ballgame. He’s fearless when it

   comes to going for it on 4th down, and he’ll call any

   type of play from anywhere on the field. One thing

   he most definitely is, is unpredictable. And be sure

   he’ll pull every trick out of his bag here. LSU is the

   looser team, and as Miles puts it, “Playing the No. 1

   team in the country is kind of fun.” Alabama and

   Nick Saban have to answer all the questions this

   week about their jump to # 1 and his return to LSU,

   a place he deserted for the big dollars of the NFL.

   LSU is one tough place to play, and considering that

   the Tigers haven’t been a home underdog since

   2002 (a stretch of 42 games), Alabama’s stay on top

   will be short lived. LSU by 3.

   NFL

   Thursday, November 6th, 2008

   @Browns (-3, -125) over Broncos

   Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Not much productive has been written on this keyboard

   about NFL football this season, but one smart thing we

   have done is bucking the Broncos (really wasn’t intending

   that pun when I began to write it). Last week we detailed

   the terrible state of the Denver defense with oodles of

   statistical backing. But we can’t let their offense off the

   hook, can we? After a series of shootouts early in the

   season, Denver looked like a promising offensive unit, but

   in losing to Miami Sunday the Broncos scored fewer than

   20 points for their fifth consecutive game. Jay Cutler is well

   thought of as a promising young quarterback, but when he

   threw his third interception in the loss to Miami it was his

   fifth interception in his previous 58 passes. His finger is

   likely still bothering him, and clearly his judgment is off.

   He’s getting little help from a Broncos running game that

   went for a piddling 14 yards on 12 carries. Shanahan’s

   teams have historically done well after a bye week but

   Denver looked woefully unprepared offensively. On

   Monday Denver put running backs Michael Pittman and

   Andre Hall on the injured list. Their defense won’t be

   getting any better either, as they’re very beat up. Boss

   Bailey’s out for the year, Champ Bailey’s out for another

   month, and other defenders are bruised and battered as

   well.

   Tough loss for the Browns on Sunday. After spotting the

   Ravens a 10-0 lead, Cleveland went on a 27-3 run, but

   couldn’t close things out. After a botched screen pass was

   returned for an interception to seal the game, Browns fans

   chanted “Brady! Brady!” in support of backup quarterback

   Brady Quinn. The Browns coaching staff agreed, and

   Anderson, underperforming for much of the season, has

   been benched. Quinn gets his first NFL start, and that

   should have his teammates on edge, knowing that they’re

   responsible to help the rookie get things done. We’ve seen

   success for unproven QB’s in similar situations this year

   (see Cassell, Matt), and it could happen here. Obviously

   Quinn, a high draft pick, is highly thought of and has some

   talent. Expect him to be more accurate than Anderson,

   but without the same kind of big-time arm. And expect the

   Brown running game to perk up. Cleveland went for only

   64 yards on 23 carries but they go from the #1 rush

   defense (Baltimore at 2.7 per carry) to #31 in Denver

   (5.1). That’s certainly a class drop in that phase of the

   game.

   These NFL Network Thursday night games have proven a

   difficult obstacle for road teams, much more than

   Thanksgiving games. Is it because everyone is watching

   on Thanksgiving, and few people are watching the NFL

   Network games, offering less motivation? Who knows?

   Obviously Denver should be better prepared for the short

   turnaround due to the recent bye week, but that extra time

   didn’t help in their game Sunday. And it hasn’t been case

   they’ve lost on the road on Thursday nights the past two

   seasons. The short week favors the home club in these

   situations. The record is only 6-4 against the spread in the

   NFL Network games but two of the losers were big dogs.

   When the home team is seen at least as competitive, either

   favored or taking 3 or less, the pointspread record is 6-2

   for the home club.

   While we think Brady Quinn should be OK (how about

   hanging onto the ball, Braylon Edwards?), the real reasons

   for this play are the scheduling dynamic, the fact that

   Broncos have failed in this situation each of the past two

   seasons, and the hideous level of play offered by Denver

   on both sides of the ball. Browns by 10.

   Sunday, November 9th, 2008

   @Lions (+6½) over Jaguars

   Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

   The Lions may be 0-8, but after a disastrous start the last

   four losses have been reasonably competitive. Those

   games were decided by 2, 4, 8 and 7 points and Detroit

   had leads in three of them. The Lions even managed a 23-

   13 halftime lead over Chicago last Sunday before losing 27-

   23. The biggest Lions' news this weekend though was the

   signing of free agent QB Daunte Culpepper. He worked out

   in Allen Park during the week, inked a deal on Saturday

   and Rod Marinelli announced the signing in his postgame

   press conference. Mum was the word during the week but

   it leaked out in postgame player interviews that QB Dan

   Orlovsky was told during the week that last Sunday would

   be his last start. I'm willing to look favorably on the

   installation of Culpepper as the QB starter. By all accounts

   the veteran's workouts were impressive. But most

   importantly was the success of Dan Orlovsky. Since Matt

   Millen was let go personnel decisions have been better all

   the way around. Millen's interim replacement Martin

   Mayhew got the better of Jerry Jones when WR Roy

   Williams was shipped back to his home state of Texas for

   multiple draft picks just before the trade deadline. At about

   the same time ex-starting QB Jon Kitna was placed on IR

   in favor of Orlovsky. Against a better schedule of

   opponents Orlovsky compiled a QB rating six points higher

   than Kitna's - 78 to 72. So I do believe the Lions' braintrust

   got this right and Culpepper will improve on the Lions'

   offensive stats. And Culpepper won't have a problem

   learning the offense, because it is the simplest scheme in

   the entire league. During training camp OC Jim Coletto

   bragged that the bulk of the running plays took only 3 days

   to install. One local pundit last week said he was told by a

   Lions' insider that the average offensive player could learn

   the offense in the time it took to make a single, ahem, visit

   to the bathroom.

   Those aforementioned stats are really the first indicator

   that drew me to this side. I'm sick of beating this horse,

   but starting in game 6 or so winless NFL dogs are a solid

   longtime winner for their backers. But it does require some

   intestinal fortitude because these teams are almost always

   taking the worst of it from a statistical perspective. That is

   what makes the Lions an interesting play - my stat model

   actually prefers them. My numbers make the Jags just a

   1.5 point favorite in this game on the season long

   numbers.

   Tech backing for Detroit comes from a 112-50 ATS system

   that plays on teams in their division's basement. This

   system is 20-12 ATS since I started using it, including 1-1

   so far in 2008. Detroit also benefits from a 67-30 ATS

   system that plays on bad defensive teams on long losing

   streaks.

   But the tech case is not the main reason to back the dog

   here. The Detroit organization makes better decisions

   without Matt Millen, and the move to install Culpepper tells

   the current roster that the club wants to win now, and

   probably won't be moving the untested 2nd year QB Drew

   Stanton into the starting spot just to see what the kid has.

   That might not be the best long term move, but it should

   definitely bolster the emotional state of a roster that can

   use every pick-me-up it can. Look for Detroit to get off the

   schneid this weekend. Detroit by 1.

   @Raiders (+8½) over Panthers

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   Well, here we go again. Another recommendation of a

   bad, ugly underdog in the NFL that will have little, to no

   backing on Sunday. But these are the best type of

   underdogs to play in the NFL, the ones nobody wants. And

   after you see this box score, you may think this play is flat

   out crazy. The Falcons shutout the Raiders 24-0 at the

   Coliseum with Atlanta winning first downs 30-3 and

   yardage 453-77 with a time of possession edge of 45:15 –

   14:45. Oakland had a total of 10 passing yards. Those

   are no misprints, and they very well could be some sort of

   records. The Falcons gained 5.5 yards per play while the

   Raiders could only muster 2.3 yards per play. It’s really

   unfathomable that a team of professional athletes making

   millions of dollars per year could put forth an effort like

   that in front of their faithful fans. But that’s exactly what

   happened.

   And as you would expect, there were plenty of quotes

   coming out of the Oakland locker room after a humiliating

   performance. “During the week, we look like we’re a

   Super Bowl team, and we come out there and we’re damn

   near the laughingstock of the league, and it’s ridiculous,”

   said Gibril Wilson. “The people in this locker room have to

   look at themselves in the mirror and see exactly what

   they’re bringing to the table, and if they’re not bringing

   anything to the table, then get off the ship, period.”

   Interim head coach Tom Cable was quoted as saying that

   Sunday's performance fooled him because he thought the

   Raiders came into the game after "an amazing week" of

   practice and "our best week of preparation." If so, then

   how on earth can they regroup here and put forth a

   competitive effort against the Panthers? It’s called heart.

   And maybe the Raiders simply don’t have any, but this is

   the spot to take a shot and give them the benefit of the

   doubt that they’ve got it. The most dangerous animals are

   ones that are backed into corners, and that’s where the

   Raiders are right now. Nobody is taking them seriously.

   How can you? But they get paid just like the guys they’ll

   face opposite them. The talent level isn’t all that different,

   so we’ll take a shot with the wounded dog looking to snap

   back with vengeance.

   Carolina enters off their bye. And they witnessed what the

   rest of the world did. A pathetic performance out of

   Oakland. And like everyone else who laughed at the

   Raiders, the Panthers players were doing the same. Their

   week of practice will not be full of serious preparation, but

   instead one full of lackadaisical effort thinking they just

   need to show up in Oakland and they’ll get an easy win.

   Now one could say that will not be the case because head

   coach John Fox is such an intense guy. But when we look

   at his bad record as a favorite (25-30-2 ATS), his tendency

   dictates that’s exactly what will be going on this week in

   Charlotte. Under Fox, Carolina has 27………

   road wins. Of those 27 wins, 17 of them have come in the

   underdog role and were won by 10 points or less. So that

   leaves ten games in which the Panthers were laying points,

   and of those 10 games, only 4 times have they won by 10

   points or more. So that means, the Panthers would be 4-

   23 against the spread if they played against the number on

   this game. With Carolina only 1-2 on the road this year,

   and Oakland off such an embarrassing loss, expect the dog

   to have a lot of bit here. Panthers by only 1.

   Rams (+7½) over @Jets

   Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   The Bills are a pretty good team, but they played a flat

   game and made the Jets look better than they really are on

   Sunday. A key point in this game was in the first half.

   After a Jets minus-4-yard field goal “drive” to cut the Bills

   lead to 7-6, Buffalo took the kickoff and got the ball on

   their own 30. Buffalo proceeded to run the next 27 plays,

   notching 119 yards of offense, yet didn’t get a point out of

   it. How did this happen? Long drive inside the 10, 92-yard

   interception return, receive the kickoff, long drive inside

   the 10, get stuffed on 4th and 1. Leaving points on the

   board like that is demoralizing, and instead of being in a

   position of having a double-digit lead, the Bills maintained

   only a sliver of a margin. Buffalo played poorly from then

   on, and the Jets notched a win, despite their only offensive

   TD being scored on a 60-yard drive.

   After playing three good games in a row the Rams threw in

   a clunker on Sunday against a Cardinals team that has had

   their number. Arizona regularly dominates the team from

   their own home city, and this one was no different. But

   we’re willing to forgive that putrid performance by St.

   Louis. First of all, they were playing an Arizona team that

   might be pretty good, and is led by a quarterback in Kurt

   Warner who loves to return to his former home dome.

   Secondly, it’s tough to play well week after week, and St.

   Louis was off a 19-17 win at Washington, 34-14

   domination of Dallas, and 16-23 last minute tough loss in

   New England to a Patriots team that they outgained.

   Except for the absolute top teams, winning streaks are

   broken easily in the NFL. And St. Louis simply had a

   colossal letdown on a day where Steven Jackson wasn’t

   100% and shouldn’t have tried to play.

   The Jets benefited from 3 turnovers on Sunday and how

   have forced 13 on the season. The problem is that 10 of

   those 13 have been in two games. In their other six

   games they have forced only three total. So you’re not

   looking at a wrecking crew that’s hell bent on separating

   their man from the ball on a regular basis.

   Now let’s not suggest that the Jets aren’t doing anything

   well. They’re protecting Favre fairly well while generating

   some sacks on their own. But this 5-3 outfit is far from a

   dominating entry, and they are likely the weakest team

   with a winning record in the league. Since September and

   until Sunday their schedule had been bye week, Cincinnati,

   at Oakland, Kansas City. Against those dregs their average

   result was a four-point win and if not for a late TD at home

   against the Chiefs the Jets would have lost two of three.

   The Rams are capable of better than those teams, and

   with this team responding well to Jim Haslett, we’ll look for

   a bounce back. Anyone riding the Rams improvement

   probably stops playing St. Louis after Sunday’s blowout

   loss, which makes this a good time to jump on board.

   Favre pulls it out late, but we’ll look for a Rams cover.

   Jets by only 3.

   Chiefs (+14) @ Chargers

   Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

   Kansas City has shown some spunk lately,

   losing two heartbreakers against the Jets and

   Bucs, two playoff teams, the last two weeks.

   They led both games very late, but their youth

   prevailed, as they simply do not know how to

   finish teams off. Sure they were aided by a

   combined 7-1 turnover margin in those two

   upset wins, but that’s the name of the game in

   the NFL. Defensive Coordinator Gunther

   Cunningham’s defenses have always forced

   turnovers and his front 7 is very underrated and

   capable of causing havoc. Tyler Thigpen is

   improving with every game under center, and has

   not thrown an interception in his last 82 pass

   attempts. Now even the weak AFC West is bad

   enough for them to pull the miracle and make up 3

   games during the second half of the season, but

   they are certainly playing some good football right

   now, and doing things that cover pointspreads.

   San Diego’s bye week along with their revenge

   motive for an embarrassing home loss to a Chief

   team that won only 4 games last season has kept

   this line from adjusting to the Chiefs’ improvements.

   It also helps our cause that they “need” this one, as

   they are sitting at 3-5 and still looking up at Denver

   in the division. Well revenge is extremely overrated

   in NFL handicapping, and “needing” and “doing” are

   two different things in this league. The fact of the

   matter is that San Diego cannot stop anyone this

   season. They fired DC Ted Cotrell after the loss to

   New Orleans in London, so I’m sure the stop unit

   will come out a bit motivated here on their strong

   home field, but they will have to prove it to me.

   They really were not a lockdown defense last season

   either at 320 yards per game, they just took the ball

   away from opposition as Shawne Merriman harassed

   opposing quarterbacks into throwing 30

   interceptions. This year the Chargers are allowing

   an ugly 372 ypg, and the pass defense has been

   abysmal at 7.0 yards per pass. Opposing

   quarterbacks have completed 68% of their passes

   for a 95% efficiency rating. The run defense has

   been only marginally better at 4.0 ypr. Soft

   defenses always make a great fade when laying big

   points, and San Diego certainly fits the bill.

   This line would have been understandable at the

   beginning of the season, but we have seen enough

   of San Diego to make an adjustment. The

   linemaker refuses to do so, so we’ll gladly take the

   big number. Double-digit favorites are an ugly 3-13

   ATS in the NFL this season, and we’ll look for

   another to bite the dust here. San Diego by only

   by 7

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 4 2008 4:31pm
2. 0 likes

   Pro Football Trend Report

   DENVER (4 - 4) at CLEVELAND (3 - 5) - 11/6/2008, 8:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   DENVER is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.

   DENVER is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.

   DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

   DENVER is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

   CLEVELAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

   DENVER is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   JACKSONVILLE (3 - 5) at DETROIT (0 - - 11/9/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.

   DETROIT is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

   DETROIT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   TENNESSEE (8 - 0) at CHICAGO (5 - 3) - 11/9/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.

   TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

   TENNESSEE is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

   TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

   TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   BUFFALO (5 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 3) - 11/9/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   NEW ENGLAND is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

   NEW ENGLAND is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

   NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NEW ORLEANS (4 - 4) at ATLANTA (5 - 3) - 11/9/2008, 1:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

   NEW ORLEANS is 4-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   ST LOUIS (2 - 6) at NY JETS (5 - 3) - 11/9/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   ST LOUIS is 95-125 ATS (-42.5 Units) in all games since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 95-125 ATS (-42.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

   ST LOUIS is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) in November games since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   SEATTLE (2 - 6) at MIAMI (4 - 4) - 11/9/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   GREEN BAY (4 - 4) at MINNESOTA (4 - 4) - 11/9/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

   GREEN BAY is 5-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   CAROLINA (6 - 2) at OAKLAND (2 - 6) - 11/9/2008, 4:05 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   CAROLINA is 51-28 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

   CAROLINA is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

   OAKLAND is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

   OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   KANSAS CITY (1 - 7) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 5) - 11/9/2008, 4:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SAN DIEGO is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

   KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   SAN DIEGO is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons

   SAN DIEGO is 2-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 2) - 11/9/2008, 4:15 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NY GIANTS (7 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 3) - 11/9/2008, 8:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   NY GIANTS are 19-39 ATS (-23.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   NY GIANTS are 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

   PHILADELPHIA is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

   PHILADELPHIA is 123-86 ATS (+28.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

   NY GIANTS are 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NY GIANTS is 4-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons

   NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   BALTIMORE (5 - 3) at HOUSTON (3 - 5) - 11/9/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

   BALTIMORE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 6) at ARIZONA (5 - 3) - 11/10/2008, 8:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons

   ARIZONA is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 4 2008 4:33pm
3. 0 likes

   The SPORTS REPORTER

   BEST BET

   GEORGIA TECH over *NORTH CAROLINA by 10

   North Carolina defensive line coach John Blake is one of those Butch Davis NFL Cowboys

   guys whose most recent college experience was at Nebraska under Callahan. The defensive

   coordinator, Everett Withers, spent six seasons in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans

   from 2001-2006, before spending one year with U. Minnesota. They had a bye week to

   prepare their defense against the scourge of college football, Paul Johnson’s triple-option

   offense. Given their background, and the team’s unfamiliarity with the scheme, they need

   more than just a bye week to be ready. North Carolina’s offense is logging only 59 plays

   per game this season, which has helped mask a defense that is quick, plays hard, but

   can be had. North Carolina opened the season with a 35-27 win against McNeese State’s

   triple-option. Nice job of scheduling by Davis, but McNeese’s triple-option controlled

   Time of Possession by 35:16 to 24:44, and North Carolina was saved in that game by

   397 all-purpose yards from Brandon Tate, who is now out for the season. T.J. Yates was

   the Tar Heels’ QB for that game, also since injured. Goodbye saviors. The “Cam Sexton

   for Heisman” sign behind Lee Corso’s head on game day a few weeks ago was one of

   the best high-profile practical jokes of the year. GEORGIA TECH, 27-17.

   BEST BET

   OKLAHOMA STATE over *TEXAS TECH by 11

   Anti-Cowboy chasers haven’t caught Gundy’s team yet, but this is the week right?

   Playing a top 3 ranked squad, right? Sorry fellas – gotta wait at least another week. The

   main difference between Texas and Okie St. is that the kids from Stillwater can run the

   football with the best of ’em. Texas ranks in the top 35 in rushing offense, but the

   Cowboys are top 10 – hitting for 275 on the ground per contest. That’s almost 100 yards

   more per game than the Longhorns. Why is that important? Well – UT’s defense was on

   the field for 37 minutes against Mike Leach’s high-powered passing attack because the

   offense couldn’t run the ball consistently (80 yards total). RB Kendall Hunter is the best

   running back that nobody is talking about and he might be the best the Big 12 has to

   offer. On a typical Saturday, Gundy’s offense keeps the ball for 32-33 minutes – that’s

   time Tech QB Harrell spends sipping water as a spectator. Sure – Harrell will get his yards

   and points against a defense that ranks in the 60s nationally, but we’re not calling for a

   shutout here, just the solid cover. Don’t sleep on the Oklahoma State special teams

   either. They average over 20 yards per punt return and have taken two punts and a kickoff

   to the house. OKLAHOMA STATE, 42-31.

   BEST BET

   COLORADO STATE over *AIR FORCE by 4

   Part of the grand tradition of Colorado State football is being able to move the chains on

   offense against neighboring Air Force’s defense. Basic, balanced, smash-mouth stuff

   usually gets that done against the Falcons. Playing turnover-free helps the cause even

   further. Elements are in place for the Rams to do that. RB Gartrell Johnson has been getting

   good yardage against most opponents, and last year’s meeting vs. Air Force was his

   collegiate breakout game. TE Kory Sperry is a safe but efficient target who didn’t play in

   last season’s loss, and current leading receiver Rashaun Woods is a JC transfer with nice

   numbers who can make the game recaps playing against the Air Force secondary, a unit

   that receives gifts from the Gods when games are played in wet weather with high

   winds, like at Houston this year, and at Fort Collins against these Rams last season. After

   getting win #7 vs. Army last Saturday, Air Force’s kiddie corps (14 starters from last season

   moved on), for whom expectations were low, is now certifiably bowl-bound.

   Academy kids don’t have letdowns, but they don’t always match up well enough to win,

   either. COLORADO STATE, 31-27.

   BEST BET

   *UCLA over OREGON STATE by 8

   Coming off of a bye, Rick Neuheisel recognizes the importance of this game. “The whole

   goal for the season lies on a great plan for the Oregon State game,” said the Bruins boss.

   That goal – getting to the post-season – will be tough, but with the coaching talent in

   Westwood we like where they’re coming from. Issues with QB play have forced offensive

   coordinator Norm Chow to limit the offense, but his offense has been much better at

   home. QB Craft has thrown 6 TDs and 5 picks at home compared to just 1 TD and 6 picks

   on the road. The running game has been anemic on the road, going for 29 yards per

   game, compared to 113 per contest at home. Oregon State’s offense found a nice rhythm

   under the direction of QB Movaeo, who was sidelined with a shoulder injury in the second

   quarter against ASU. His backup – Canfield – was decent in relief but it’s the same

   kid who threw 15 picks a year ago. Oregon State is off its preferred artificial turf surface

   and onto grass in the Rose Bowl, which the crew will be sure to keep long to help slow

   down OSU’s speedy tailback Rogers. UCLA, 27-19.

   BEST BET

   ARKANSAS STATE over *FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL by 14

   ASU transitions from Alabama’s brick wall front, to a smallish FIU defense that plays with

   its hair on fire until, oh, on or about November 1, when they are charred toast and have

   nothing left to burn. A team like Arkansas State douses the dying embers with a steady

   stream of between the tackles spurts from the source. Arkansas State’s attack never had

   a chance last Saturday and our community was alerted to that in a big way, six days

   before the game began. This time around, they can resume their normal 225 yards of

   running to daylight. By the way, does anyone in our community really think that ASU

   spent its bye week preparing to attack and beat #2-ranked Alabama, a game they knew

   they’d lose? This is an important Sun Belt game which was being targeted all along, and

   FIU barely gains the total yardage per game that Arkansas State gets on the ground.

   When Arkansas State goes vertical, they have averaged an impressive 9.5 yards per pass

   attempt. ARKANSAS STATE, 31-17.

   BEST BET

   *USC over CALIFORNIA by 31

   Cal has thrived on turning people over, accumulating 15 picks on the year. Eight of those

   picks came against Washington State and UCLA, teams with first-year QBs. The Trojans

   won’t give Cal those easy opps. Their ridiculously good defense will force an inconsistent

   offense with a beaten up tailback to earn every inch of the field. The Bear WRs are young,

   their rotating QBs hot and cold. Not a good situation when facing 2nd and 3rd and longs.

   What was lost in Cal’s sloppy win over Oregon was seven three-play drives and two short

   scoring drives setup by Oregon miscues. Do that vs. a better Trojan D and you’re down

   at least three scores. For the Men of Troy, the stench of the Oregon State loss is being

   replaced by the scent of the BCS title game. Pete Carroll knows that winning this game

   is important….and winning with style is critical. USC, 44-13

   RECOMMENDED

   *RUTGERS over SYRACUSE by 23

   Here is the Associated Press diversion: “Curtis Brinkley accomplished a feat none of the

   great running backs at Syracuse ever did. Not Jim Brown. Not Ernie Davis. Not Joe

   Morris. Brinkley set a Syracuse single-season record Saturday night with his fifth consecutive

   100-yard game…” Hey, Orange ya’ just so glad about that incredible, amazing,

   spectacular, unbelievable human act accomplished by a player that Syracuse needs to

   give the ball to 33 times because nobody else in their offense is trustworthy, and who

   won’t see it half that many times if Syracuse is trailing? Rutgers beat us to the punch by

   one game, getting 55 points at Pitt in their last outing, following prior production of 16.7

   points per game, a change we had targeted to occur in this match-up. As previewed then,

   the Syracuse defense allows a hefty 425 yards per game and is competing with

   Willingham’s Washington defense to be chosen as the poster boys for Matador crackers.

   RUTGERS, 43-20.

   RECOMMENDED

   *BOSTON COLLEGE over NOTRE DAME by 12

   If Notre Dame had a real running game, they’d have beaten Pitt in overtime last Saturday.

   If they had a polished quarterback instead of an inaccurate flinger looking to win jumping

   contests with his receivers against opposing DBs, they would have won in regulation.

   Charlie Weis’ career was nurtured along by Bill Parcells, the guy who made winning lateseason

   games via strong defense and good running attacks popular. With Boston College

   as the match-up, Notre Dame cannot make anything like that happen. BC head coach

   Jagodzkinski to Weis: “I’m from the NFL, too, and when we beat you last year at your

   place, we were just scrimmaging because you were so bad, it didn’t make sense for us

   to use the “A” plays when Virginia Tech was on deck. Now we have three ACC losses,

   nothing is a look-ahead and boy, you must pay for our sins.” BOSTON COLLEGE, 26-14

   TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4

   *BUFFALO over MIAMI-OH by 8

   Whichever Miami-OH quarterback is placed under center, be it Daniel (Augh!) Rutabaga or

   Clay (Feet) Belton, he figures to offset Buffalo’s pass-defense weakness. Meet Miami-OH,

   where the coach is probably in favor of his team’s execution. With a three-children running

   back rotation, UB boss Turner Gill has been able to keep his #1 James Starks fresh for when

   the calendar turns to November and you need to run and protect the ball in order to win

   games in this place. BUFFALO, 19-11.

   WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5

   *BALL STATE over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 14

   Northern Illinois’ low total of 16 points in 38 minutes of clock time last week is yet another

   signal that Jerry Kill’s mirrors need polishing. Ball State averages 7.0 yards per play, NIU 5.7.

   Ball State has the conference’s best QB who can elude the rush of NIU’s NFL-eyeing defensive

   end, while NIU employs a back-up QB whom Kill is afraid to let put the ball in the air.

   BALL STATE, 31-17.

   *AKRON over TOLEDO by 9

   Toledo tempo is down from 76.3 offensive plays per game last season to only 63.3 this year.

   Ya’ can’t be doin’ that and expect to win in this league. AKRON, 29-20.

   THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6

   MARYLAND over *VIRGINIA TECH by 2

   Some of Maryland’s biggest recent embarrassments have come against the Hokies. Their little

   d-line might be steamrolled by Tech’s o-line, but field generalship for Virginia Tech is a

   huge question mark. Issues avoiding blitzes and in the red zone will be there even if decent

   rushing yardage comes. Maryland opponents get 2.6 yards per punt return, Virginia Tech

   opponents 19.0. If the Terps can put the Hokies in frequent bad field position to start, the

   Hokies won’t be coming out of it in one piece. Maryland’s Heyward-Bey is the big playmaker

   Tech wishes it had. MARYLAND, 15-13.

   TCU over *UTAH by 4

   If good pitching in fact beats good hitting – consider TCU Nolan Ryan. The Horned Frogs’ dline

   is ridiculously quick will make life miserable for Utes’ QB Johnson. The road team is playing

   their second straight roadie and this is a short week – but coach Patterson has his fellas

   feeling invincible and they already dismantled BYU on a Thursday night. TCU, 23-19.

   FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7

   *FRESNO STATE over NEVADA by 1

   Pat Hill’s defense gave up over 700 yards to the Pack last year and the d-line is worse this

   season. Hill knows that he must outscore one of the nation’s best running teams. His squad

   really isn’t bad on the ground either, but Nevada’s secondary gets burned more than a campfire

   marshmallow, so a passing-based attack with a veteran QB may be in order. FRESNO

   STATE, 42-41.

   SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 8

   WISCONSIN over *INDIANA by 10

   The Badgers have stepped up their play and are in a position to win out and go bowling.

   Wisky pounded the rock 55 times vs. IU last year and will likely ask their QB to put in the

   belly of their tailbacks on 70% of their plays. Indiana isn’t the most physical squad in football

   and they’ll wilt in the second half. WISCONSIN, 31-21.

   OHIO STATE over *NORTHWESTERN by 10

   Given last Saturday’s successes, Northwestern back-up QB Kafka might think he can bite off

   more than he can chew and throw another 2 INTs, which would do more harm against this

   opponent. As the Wildcats hope to string lots of little plays together in the absence of key RB

   Terrell Sutton, Ohio State is rested and ready to come out and get the kind of lead that would

   force Northwestern into situations where the home dog would eventually dig its own grave.

   OHIO STATE, 23-13.

   *MICHIGAN STATE over PURDUE by 8

   Outgoing Purdue head coach Joe Tiller just beat Michigan. He can retire now. Except that at

   3-6 SU and the team still desperate for bowl consideration, he might see an opportunity.

   Michigan State is bowl-eligible and seeking to find some strength to continue where they

   normally lay down – the month of November. Sparty Partyers are eyeing a win here and a

   bye week prior to a supposed showdown with Penn State for a share of the Big Ten title. But

   the Ringer effect is lessening by the week and if Purdue cares for the rock, Michigan State

   won’t get the gifts they need to coast and will find themselves in a ballgame. Purdue got 517

   yards of offense in only 21:42 possession time vs. a better Michigan State defense last season.

   MICHIGAN STATE, 31-23.

   ILLINOIS over *WESTERN MICHIGAN by 2 (at Detroit)

   At 5-4, Illinois is almost in a must-win situation because after this, Ohio State and

   Northwestern are not gimmes. Which means there is pressure on them, and that ain’t necessarily

   a good thing. Next to Missouri (52 points allowed),Western Michigan might have the

   most mature passing attack that Illinois has seen this season. ILLINOIS, 26-24.

   VIRGINIA over *WAKE FOREST by 1

   Fake Wake! They continue to try to sneak their way through the schedule despite having been

   exposed as a previously successful unbalanced run offense posing as “balanced,” which

   wasn’t working. Going back to Run emphasis the last two weeks has resulted in 0-2 ATS in

   a current string of 1-4 ATS, with the one cover against the haplessly hapless Clemson

   offense. Fake Wake! Their backers have become turnover-starved with just 4 in the last four

   games. This, from a defense that acquired 2.1 turnovers per game last season, double the

   recent rate. Spot hidden flaws, win against. VIRGINIA, 19-18.

   NORTH CAROLINA STATE over *DUKE by 1

   Talent levels here are fairly equal, Duke has the coaching edge, but the Wolfpack should be

   well-rested after their second bye in four weeks. Dukies are coming off of two straight, hardfought

   roadies and may be a bit leg weary. Devil backers should also be concerned with their

   lack of depth this late in the season against an opponent that will push all in when they sniff

   a hand they can win. NORTH CAROLINA STATE, 24-23.

   FLORIDA over *VANDERBILT by 21

   The Gators have held five opponents to single digits and Vandy mans one of the worst offenses

   in D1. Bobby Johnson’s team won’t beat themselves, but what does it matter if you can’t

   move the football? They could keep it tight if UF is suffering a cocktail party hangover, but

   even with a headache and dry mouth, Urban Meyer’s team can use their defense and special

   teams to put their offense in short field situations. The Gators chomping of UGA last week

   will provide fuel for an anti-Florida fire in the coming weeks, just can’t go there this week

   with an offense that would have trouble scoring in a women’s prison. FLORIDA, 31-10.

   *SOUTH CAROLINA over ARKANSAS by 10

   The Gamecocks excel at stopping the run and without a running game, Petrino’s team is a

   pig without a snout. Not a good matchup for a run-based road dog with a happy-footed, mistake-

   prone QB. The home defense can corner two players – RB Smith and TE Williams – and

   the Arkansas offense will go nowhere. Spurrier can’t run the ball, but his young QB Garcia is

   gaining experience and will welcome a chance to sit in the pocket against a pressure-less

   defensive front. SOUTH CAROLINA, 24-14.

   GEORGIA over *KENTUCKY by 11

   UGA’s season has been reduced to playing for a morning January 1 bowl game – far cry from

   the SEC and national title. Tough to get off of the mat after last week – but they have the talent

   to get over on an injury depleted Wildcat litter that struggles to move the ball. Given

   Kentucky’s offensive prowess – or lack thereof – Georgia can pound the ball with RB Moreno

   and hit one or two haymakers that’ll knock out the home dog. Not sure where the Dawgs are

   mentally, so we’ll keep our cash in our pockets. GEORGIA, 24-13.

   *OHIO over BOWLING GREEN by 1

   With Bowling Green’s good passing quarterback being asked to run more, and a running back

   who came off the sideline for the first time this season to be featured in the offense last

   Saturday, Ohio’s defense doesn’t appear to be overmatched. TV watchers from last week will

   certainly be turned off by Ohio, but this is a new ballgame and a new match-up, with Bowling

   Green bringing an easier style for the Bobcats to handle. Or not, as the case may in fact be.

   OHIO, 24-23.

   *BYU over SAN DIEGO STATE by 33

   The Aztecs lack of defensive speed won’t be exposed to a great degree, but a highly efficient

   offense will take advantage of out-of-place defenders whenever possible. BYU backers

   would be laying a bundle with a young defense that has shown holes in recent weeks – so

   don’t immediately reach for the wallet. The Aztecs QB – Lindley – has shown flashes of talent,

   but if the o-line can’t keep him upright, coach Chuck Long will have to revert to a very

   iffy ground game. BYU, 49-16.

   *BOISE STATE over UTAH STATE by 27

   Look for Boise State to work on their running game, which has been average, in an effort to

   prepare for the end of season unbeaten run. We’ll reserve any selection siding with Utah

   State for next week when the national no-name heads to Ruston, LA to face La Tech. BOISE

   STATE, 38-11.

   OKLAHOMA over *TEXAS A&M by 27

   After facing two offensive degenerates, A&M now face what may be the head of the national

   class. Unfortunately for Sherman’s army, his defense is giving up over 7 yards per pass

   attempt, which puts them in Duke’s class. So ask yourself – what would happen if OU’s

   offense played Duke? The A&M offense clicked a bit of late and the Sooners have been average

   on defense since the Texas breakdown. You can count on the home team to get to 21 –

   but can they keep the road chalk under 50? OKLAHOMA, 47-20.

   *RICE over ARMY by 7

   Army’s defense can play. You knew that all along. The offense was always shooting at their

   own troops, killing them with turnovers. Even back in 2006, Army was -4 in turnovers in a

   48-14 home loss to Rice. Army’s roster is loaded with kids from Texas, who love to come

   home within the borders of the home state and play. Some of them were on the team when

   Rice ate their cookies in ’06. Rice is located in Houston, TX, for anyone in need of a quick

   geography lesson. Rice’s paper-tiger defense specializes in getting interceptions, not fumbles,

   and Army rarely throws. RICE, 31-24.

   *COLORADO over IOWA STATE by 6

   Colorado appears to be radioactive at this point. Quarterback juggling hasn’t worked, Army

   might have better receivers. Now, the leading rusher Rodney Stewart has a broken leg. The

   defense is competent but so is Michigan’s. One unit can only hold a team together for so

   long. Iowa State looks like a quick cure for the Buffs’ many ills. Looks can be deceiving. COLORADO,

   27-21.

   MEMPHIS over *SMU by 5

   June Jones’ SMU offense puts it in the air 70% of the time. But they are only logging 59 plays

   per game overall, 20 fewer than Memphis. At Hawaii, Jones’ offense was throwing 70% of

   the time but logging 73.5 plays per game overall. That’s why percentages can be misleading!

   You first need to understand the volume level! SMU’s current QB to receivers connections

   aren’t good enough to complete enough of the fewer passes and at this point, the

   defense is getting more worn down with every snap they play. MEMPHIS, 34-29.

   *MISSOURI over KANSAS STATE by 22

   Not wanting their defensive 201 rush yards allowed per game average to dip below the

   Mendoza Line, K-state proceeded to give up 280 on the ground to pass-oriented Kansas.

   Should not be trouble to cut through warm butter for Mizzou this week, a team that thrives

   against defensive lightweights. Despite the high profile passing game lead by rock star

   Chase Daniel, the Tigers success/failure this year can be tied to the rushing attack. They put

   up 191 per contest in non-conference blowouts, but hit for only around 130 in conference

   games (includes two losses). Home team defense will give up yards and points to QB

   Freeman & Co., but the Wildcats tend to implode at the wrong time – like during games – as

   evidenced by their 19 fumbles on the season. MISSOURI, 45-23.

   *FLORIDA STATE over CLEMSON by 7

   As noted in last week’s main issue, Clemson’s new coaching staff wanted to stretch the filed

   with the passing game. They did that against BC – hitting bigger plays downfield. Trouble is

   that QB Harper tossed three picks and the downfield plays didn’t open up holes for the running

   game. FSU will welcome a straight up rushing attack after being slapped around by

   Georgia Tech’s triple option. The Noles aren’t very good offensively, but they’ll make enough

   plays in support of an excellent defense to please the home crowd. FLORIDA STATE, 23-16.

   *EAST CAROLINA over MARSHALL by 13

   Mark Snyder’s Marshall Plan is aging him quickly. Even the cushy scoreboard wins don’t

   come easy with this bunch. On the road against an opponent with good defensive depth and

   a more mature two-deep, points don’t figure to come easily for them in this match-up. EAST

   CAROLINA, 23-10.

   *NEBRASKA over KANSAS by 1

   Imagine the Air Force’s ability to defend the country….pre-Wright Brothers. That’s what you’ll

   get in Lincoln this week between two teams that love to pass the ball but cannot defend it.

   Huskers gave up 76 to Kansas last year, but should be able to contain a one-dimensional

   offense enough to outscore ’em. Kansas’ Mangino found a semblance of a running game last

   week and will go to it early to test Nebraska’s resolve – especially if the weather is hostile.

   In a league where the upper crust feasts on middle America, these two average Joes need

   this win to keep up with the Stoops’. NEBRASKA, 31-30.

   PENN STATE over *IOWA by 7

   National pundits like to note this one as a “potential trap game,” being less than definitive so

   they can say “I told you so” if it happens or say nothing if it doesn’t.Well – it won’t. After their

   QB went 11-for-29 in comeback mode last week vs. Illinois, the Hawks’ coaches will rely on

   the running game and defense to squeak one out. PSU was a tired football team last we saw

   them vs. Ohio State, but the bye week came at a perfect time. Their offense is too dynamic

   for a decent defense and a one-dimensional offense may move the ball at times, but not consistent

   enough to inflict much damage on JoePa’s excellent defense. PENN STATE, 24-17.

   *TENNESSEE over WYOMING by 23

   As predicted in last week’s Best Bet, the Cowboys took the reins from the QBs and fed the

   tailbacks 59 times in a 35-10 win over SDSU. Unfortunately for the Poke Nation, that ain’t

   gonna work against a very good SEC defense. Despite a miserable 3-6 season, UT plays

   some serious defense, ranking in the top 15 in total defense and top 25 in run defense.

   Wyoming won’t be able to move the sticks as Fulmer’s defense might score more than the

   opponent…and his own offense for that matter. TENNESSEE, 26-3.

   *LSU over ALABAMA by 3

   LSU’s QBs lack the experience and skill to carry a team, so Les Miles will ask his big uglies

   to do it. Don’t be surprised if they run it 75% of the time ‘cause they have a stable of RBs

   that can wear down the Tide defense. Bama’s game plan won’t be that different, but QB

   Wilson is a vet that excels when his running game gets going. Should Saban’s group fall

   behind – Wilson isn’t the Matt Ryan type of QB that can will his team to victory. Home field

   + playing #1 + Saban’s return = motivated LSU. Don’t fret Tide fans, the Tigers still have two

   conference losses. Barring a loss here and one to either Miss State or Auburn, you are Atlanta

   bound. LSU, 23-20.

   *OREGON over STANFORD by 12

   Stanford is one of the more physical Pac-10 teams and will give a solid Oregon defense all

   it can handle. That Duck D does thrive against the run – ranking in the top 20 nationally. The

   Cardinal doesn’t have much at QB and generating a passing offense inside of Autzen Stadium

   just won’t happen. Cal + mother nature slowed the Oregon dynamic running game last week

   and despite Stanford’s respectable run stoppers, keeping the Ducks under wraps for 60 minutes

   is a bit too much to ask. OREGON, 31-19.

   *ARIZONA STATE over WASHINGTON by 18

   Devil QB Carpenter will roll out the red carpet for Washington this week. The senior QB, who

   has been sacked more than canned goods (21 times), may just keep his uniform clean playing

   a team that has registered a total of five QB drops on the year. We’ll see if the Huskies

   lay down or battle for their lame duck coach, but the straight up outcome won’t differ. ASU

   got a shot of confidence in a 2-point loss last week and could be a value play as we make

   the turn and head down the stretch run. ARIZONA STATE, 35-17.

   HAWAII over *NEW MEXICO STATE by 7

   Hawaii was ambushed on the mainland by Utah State last week, but won’t suffer a second

   straight letdown. Although the Warrior offense has no real identity, NMSU’s defense hasn’t

   met an offensive player that it likes to tackle. Once the road staff unleashes an ultra-aggressive

   defense on a patchwork offensive front, the Aggies will resort back to the ultra-inefficient,

   turnover-laden offense that we have come to know and love. HAWAII, 30-23.

   *HOUSTON over TULANE by 10

   Straight-up accounts were kind, sensationalizing Houston’s 37-23 loss at Marshall by highlighting

   it as Houston QB Case Keenum’s “school-record-setting ninth consecutive outing

   with at least 300 yards passing!” B…F…D. Favoritism and big passing yards mean squat if

   you can’t stop the other side. Just as Marshall targeted Keenum with a pass rush to curtail

   his production, The Tulane D will do the same. But after Tulane got 15.5 sacks in

   August/September, they got only 1 in October. What up with the pressure? HOUSTON, 34-24.

   ARIZONA over *WASHINGTON STATE by 38

   Unless the president steps in and declares the Washington State football program a disaster

   area before Saturday, Arizona will be the next in a long line of Cougar bashers. Hey – at least

   the conference punch line didn’t give up 60 to Stanford. ’Zona’s offense has struggled for the

   past month and coach Stoops will use the two bye weeks (bye + WSU) to prep his fellas for

   the final few ball games. ARIZONA, 48-10.

   *CENTRAL FLORIDA over SOUTHERN MISS by 1

   Central Florida’s little-play offense will attempt to stay on the field just long enough to matter,

   and pray that their defense and special teams can produce something extra for them that

   would make up for the approximate 200 yards of offensive yardage disparity per game in the

   match-up. It might just work. CENTRAL FLORIDA, 28-27.

   *TEXAS over BAYLOR by 29

   Despite getting beat by Texas Tech on a 6-pointer at the buzzer, Texas is an excellent team.

   Throw the first half out and you get what Mack Brown’s club brings to the table. Baylor will

   try to grab the angry Horns by the horns, but is destined to be gored. Home team’s offense

   has playmakers at every corner and will have no trouble dissecting Art Briles’ defense. Briles

   team is 0-3 on the road – a testament to their youth – and looks far more comfortable in

   Waco. TEXAS, 44-15.

   *WEST VIRGINIA over CINCINNATI by 11

   If you go back in the box scores, you’ll see something to admire about West Virginia’s defense

   – opponents have scored next to nothing against it in the second half. Cincinnati has been

   getting it done here and there with their QB juggling, but part of it has been inherent offensive

   incompetence by opponents. The week’s test pits the inexperienced Cincinnati QB

   against an active 3-3-5 defense and he figures to flunk the midterm while West Virginia’s

   swift offensive dancers make just enough people miss to matter. WEST VIRGINIA, 24-13.

   *PITTSBURGH over LOUISVILLE by 8

   Pitt’s back-up QB Bostick is a ruinous turnover machine. Luckily for Those Amazing

   Wannstedts, they have a support group that can intervene for the kid. Big Big East home

   game, with all the Pitt goals still out there for them as they stand 2-1 in the Big East, and the

   team that beat them, Rutgers, is only 2-2. We’ve been on the right of some Louisville goodies

   this year, but the key to the Cards’ offense is the running game that Pitt’s defense should

   contain. Can Louisville’s defense handle Pitt’s running game? PITTSBURGH, 24-16.

   *MINNESOTA over MICHIGAN by 8

   Michigan’s defense was going to carry the team until offensive incompetence caught up to

   it and the bottom fell out. Pieces of that unit were being put back in the bag in West Lafayette,

   IN last Saturday and they show up at Minnesota’s door in shoddy shape. Not sure how

   Minnesota treats the game when they have 7 wins (bowl eligible) and are expected to actually

   beat Michigan, because a meek mindset – do as little as possible to get to a bowl, where

   we already are -- has long been part of the program’s culture. MINNESOTA, 34-26.

   *SAN JOSE STATE over LOUISIANA TECH by 12

   Tech gets terrible QB play week-in, week-out – so don’t let the 38 that they put up on Fresno

   State last week fool you. Fresno’s paper towel d-line allowed the Bulldogs to roll for 280 on

   the ground meaning that the QBs could follow the coach’s’ instructions – take snap and don’t

   screw up the handoff. Two things change this week – (1) they won’t have the lead; and (2)

   the Spartans are decent against the run and will put 8 or 9 in the box to make the QB’s beat

   them. Not gonna happen. SAN JOSE STATE, 26-14.

   *UNLV over NEW MEXICO by 1

   The Rebs have dropped five straight and the fire in their belly could be flickering. They

   escorted TCU to the Vegas airport and will be very happy to see a slower, less aggressive

   defense this week. The Lobos win when they protect the ball – in four wins they have 3

   turnovers, in six losses they’ve given it away 17 times. Easy math. UNLV has forced only 8

   turnovers all year so the road team has a good shot at the straight up win. UNLV, 21-20.

   *TROY over WESTERN KENTUCKY by 15

   The visitors represent a tricky hurdle for 4-1 Sun Belt current runner-up Troy, because the

   game does not count in the Sun Belt standings, and because Troy has already beaten FIU,

   FAU and Middle Tennessee, three teams on the outside of a three-team bubble of Sun Belt

   bowl tie-ins this season. WKU is an Independent, cannot take anything away from Troy with

   a win, and Troy won’t lose much vs. anyone else in the conference with a loss. Much the

   same as in Troy’s 21-17 eke job at WKU a year ago. TROY, 31-16.

   *FLORIDA ATLANTIC over NORTH TEXAS by 22

   Home coach Schnellenberger has the sounder program, and much better wide receivers at

   the disposal of his much sounder quarterback. The Vizza Man goes back and throws short

   balls for North Texas, for the sake of throwing. Rusty Big Play to Medium Play and Back to

   Big Play Smith is in the pocket with a purpose. FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 51-29.

   *LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE over UTEP by 5

   Anybody tackling out there? UTEP’s sub-par 3-3-5 defense is ill-equipped to handle the

   Lafalots’ misdirection rushing overload, and ULL’s matador defenders are not equipped to

   contain the myriad of formations and athletes waiting to make plays in Mike Price’s offense.

   ULL might be more distracted by its own previously uncharted status: 5-3 SU overall but

   more significantly, 4-0 in Sun Belt play, in sole possession of first place in the conference

   with tough road games coming up against FAU and second-place (4-1) Troy. UTEP, at 3-5 SU

   overall, just needs to beat whomever at this point. UL-LAFAYETTE, 45-40.

   *MIDDLE TENNESSEE over LOUISIANA-MONROE by 9

   The Chinese Fire Driller hosts had a bye off three straight road games, the last two out of

   conference. Coach Stockstill, with extra time, off three losses, with a quick defense and deep

   bag o’ tricks is probably not somebody to mess with when the other side converts less than

   30% of its offensive third downs and allows 44% on defense. MIDDLE TENNESSEE, 23-14.

   TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11

   BALL STATE over *MIAMI OH by 15

   Wouldn’t touch this Miami OH team against an opponent that has a competent offense, and

   a defense that stiffens in the red zone and gets its share of turnovers. Not no way, not no

   how. BALL STATE, 31-16.

   WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 12

   *KENT STATE over TEMPLE by 3

   The day we give out “Temple” in a game with a short line is the day that QB Adam DiMichele

   gets carried away with himself and starts forcing it into a relatively competent Kent defense

   whose inept offense remembers to secure the football. Kent’s misdirection running game is

   a little different than most of the MAC rushing attacks that Temple’s defense has been able

   to contain. KENT STATE, 23-20.

   CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 2

   Both offenses have converted about 45% on third down, ranking in the Top 25. Northern

   Illinois’ defense does a better job of tackling for losses and creating more difficult scenarios

   for the opposing offense. But guess which team leads the nation in yards per punt return,

   with 24.6 yards per return? It’s Central Michigan. If they make a stop or two on defense and

   get a big return or two, it could spell the difference. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 24-22.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 5 2008 3:35pm
4. 0 likes

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   Matt Fargo Game of the Year Big East Conferenece Game of the Year Pittsburgh

   Scott Spreitzer Game of the Year KO Revenge Game of the Year North Carolina

   Stephen Nover Game of the Year SEC Game of the Year Alabama

   Wild Bill Game of the Year College Game of the Year Nebraska

   Wizard of Odds Game of the Year College Football Late Steam Play of the Year Florida

   Northcoast Game of the Year Game of the Year Ohio State

   LENNY STEVENS Game of the Year 20* Big 12 Game of the Year Oklahoma State

   Larry Norris Game of the Year Totals Unlimited Game of the Year North Carolina Under

   Larry Ness Game of the Year 20* C-USA Game of the Year East Carolina

   Larry Ness Game of the Year 20* ACC Game of the Year North Carolina

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 8 2008 12:12pm
5. 0 likes

   SEBASS 300 * ( 6-0 RUN L6):

   300* ALABAMA

   ALATEX SUPERPLAYS CFB ( 11-3 ):

   SuperPlay -

   PURELOCK ( 8-2 ):

   VIRGINIA

   SPECIAL K SUPER K-BOMB ( 11-2 ):

   Super K-Bomb - OHIO STATE

   BIG AL 10-DIME PLAYS ( 10-2 ):

   10-Dime -

   KELSO 50* and UP ( 24-6 ):

   100* HOUSTON

   STERLING, J 10* Plays ( 8-2 ):

   10*

   TIM SULLIVAN CFB ( 7-2 L3 WKS ):

   ========================================

   Added Plays :

   SPRIETZER REVENGE GOY - NORTH CAROLINA

   BUDIN 25-DIME - NORTH CAROLINA

   FIEST PERSONAL BEST GOY - ARIZONA

   NESS INSIDER PLAYS ( 4-0 L4 ): AIR FORCE

   NORTHCOAST GOY - OHIO STATE

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 8 2008 12:12pm
6. 0 likes

   ACE ACE 1 (2000+ 1-0) (5-3) (23-14) 1200 WAKE FOREST -- 600 alabama - 400 georgia -- 200 nebraska

   ATS 2 (20* 3-0) (11-6) (29-29) 7 WEST VIRGINIA - 6 ul lafayette, pitt, north carolina - 5 notre dame

   BEN BURNS 1 (15-14) (20-18) SEC MAIN EVENT LSU --- BIG 10 GAME OF MONTH IOWA --- BIG CHALK GOY TENNESSEE -- PAC 10 GAME OF MONTH UCLA

   BIG AL 1 (8-4) (3* 27-15) SO CAROLINA, OKLA STATE - 3 NORTH CAROLINA, LSU, SAN JOSE, IOWA, LOUISVILLE - 1 usc, nebraska, georgia --- LINEMOVER OKLA STATE

   BANKER 4 (500* 2-3) (400* 9-7) (10-15) 300 mich state

   BILL BAILEY 5 (100* 4-6) (8-15) 100 PITTSBURGH

   BLAZER 6 (4* 5-6) (3* 14-13) 4 IOWA - 3 virginia, army, missouri

   BOB BALFE 2 (38-28) iowa, north carolina, nebraska, southern cal

   BRANDON LANG 1 (30* 0-1) (20* 6-3) (24-22) 40 ALABAMA

   CAJUN SPORTS 2 (5* 4-5) (4* 11-6) (20-17) 4 LOUISVILLE, ARKANSAS, COLO STATE - - 3 okla state, florida atlantic

   CAPPERS ACCESS 1 (26-30) minnesota, cal, vanderbilt, bos college

   CASH 1 (6-6) (8-13) (30-24) TENNESSEE, OKLA STATE, indiana, syracuse, purdue, tennessee

   COACHES CORNER 4 (2-1) (1-5) (24-24) UCLA, wash state, washington

   COWTOWN 7 (2* 5-5) (17-19) 1 south carolina

   COMPUTER KIDS 2 (8-2) (22-17) ILLINOIS OVER, BYU OVER, HAWAII OVER

   DAVE COKIN 1 (4-4) (32-33) (19-17) TV PARLAY OF THE YEAR NEW MEXICO, ALABAMA

   DAVE ******** 1 (6* 2-6) (5* 6-2) (29-26) 6 COLO STATE - 5 NC STATE - 4 ohio state, arkansas, georgia tech under

   DIAMOND STAR 4 (3* 2-3) (2* 22-22) wisconsin

   DIRECTOR 7 (2-1) (16-14) (19-21) MINNESOTA -- COLORADO, CINCY, FLA INTERNATIONAL, rice, alabama, washington state

   DOC ENTERPRISES 1 (8* 0-1) (7* 0-1) (6* 2-1) (5* 4-6) (35-23) 5 OHIO STATE - 4 wisconsin, iowa, colorado, tennessee

   DOCTOR BOB 1 (4* 1-0) (3* 18-7) (2* 14-7) 3 SO CAROLINA, ARMY, CLEMSON, NEW MEXICO --- 2 illinois, southern cal

   DOLPHIN 4 (5* 1-1) (3* 27-30) texas

   EXECUTIVE 9 (600+ 4-2) (400% 2-2) (22-16) 500 WAKE FOREST -- 300 duke, clemson, boston college

   EXPERT 1 (0-1) (6-12) (6-7) UCLA

   FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (8-10) (7-9) NON CONFERENCE GOY TENNESSEE

   FINAL SCORE 1 (0-1) (5-9) (13-7) KANSAS

   GAME DAY 1 (5* 1-0) (4-3) (27-20) 4 HOUSTON - 3 rice, oregon - 2 illinois, colo state, ucla

   GARDEN STATE SPORTS 9 (5* 5-1) (21-11) SMU - cincinnati, kansas

   GOLD SHEET 1 (3-3) (5-5) (25-16) FLORIDA - west michigan, missouri, cincinnati, ucla, san jose

   INSIDERS EDGE 9 (40* 6-6) (20-16) 40 IOWA - 30 air force, so carolina

   INSIDE STEAM (7-2) (13-21)

   INSIDE INFO (2* 3-9) (17-21)

   JB SPORTS 5 (1-0) (4-12) (17-15) north carolina

   JEFFERSON SPORTS 8 (24-24) nebraska, so carolina, ohio staste, north carolina, clemson

   JIM FEIST 2 (3-7) (36-25) (21-19) BLOWOUT GAME OF MONTH MINNESOTA --- PERSONAL BEST GOY ARIZONA --- IOWA, SAN JOSE, LOUISVILLE, MISSOURI -- west michigan, nebraska

   KELSO STURGEON 3 (200* 1-0) (100* 4-0) (50* 6-1) (5-4) 100* HOUSTON --- 15* OREGON STATE -- 5 ohio state - 4 arkansas - 3 okla state ---3 TEAM PARLAY lsu, boston college, usc ---

   LARRY NESS 5 (5-6) (14-19) LV INSIDER AIR FORCE --- WIPEOUT WINNER SAN JOSE STATE ---- CUSA GOY EAST CAROLINA --- ACC GOY NORTH CAROLINA

   LT PROFITS 5 (3* 0-1) (2* 30-18) NEBRASKA, iowa, indiana

   LV INSIDERS 4 (500* 3-6) (2-5) (19-15) 500 MINNESOTA - bowling green, army

   LV LOCKLINE 7 (50* 6-4) (21-20) 50 LSU - 25 cal, oregon state

   LV SPORTS 4 (1-0) (23-23) mich state, illinois, alabama

   LENNY STEVENS 2 (20* 4-3) (20* 2-3) (15-17) 20* BIG 12 GOY OKLA STATE --- 10 lsu, southern cal, louisville

   MAXWELL 2 (0-2) (1-2) (26-20) houston, louisville, ohio state, michigan

   MIKE NERI 9 (5* 1-0) (4* 13-6) (22-15) 4 SO CAROLINA - 3 florida, west virginia, usc

   MILLIONAIRES CLUB 9 (6-1) (9-3) SO CAROLINA -- SMU

   NORM HITZGES (3* 2-0) (2* 19-17)

   NORTHCOAST PHONES 2 (5* 2-1) (4* 6-2) (4* 16-6) (9-16) 5* GOY OHIO STATE -- 4 WISCONSIN, FSU, WEST VIRGINIA, SMU -- 3 ucla, nebraska

   NORTHCOAST TOTALS 2 (1-0) (4* 3-2) (14-12) 3.5* illinois over -- 3 byu over, boise under

   NORTHCOAST SMALL COLL 2 (4* 2-2) (14-17) 3 west michigan, utep, ul monroe

   NY SPORTS (10* 4-2) (9* 3-0) (23-18)

   PHENOM 1 (24-15) tennessee, alabama, nc state, cincinnati

   PLATINUM 2 (10* 10-8) (23-21) OHIO STATE, OREGON, USC, ILLINOIS

   POINTWISE 1 (4* 8-9) (39-28) 4 LOUISVILLE, OKLA STATE -- 3 byu, missouri, ucla, ark state, nc state -- 2 san jose, notre dame, syracuse, clemson

   POINTSPREAD MAVEN 5 (20* 4-5) (17-23) 20 KENTUCKY - 10 minnesota, so carolina

   POWER PLAYS 1 (33-23) MICHIGAN, NORTHWESTERN, PENN STATE, KENTUCKY, USC,

   PREFERRED PICKS 6 (5* 0-2) (4* 7-2) (11-10) 4 IOWA - 3 louisville, okla state, lsu

   PRIMETIME 7 (8-6) (5-11) OKLA STATE

   PRIVATE INVESTORS 1 (4-4) (28-27) california, alabama, penn state, texas tech,

   PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 2 (5* 5-2) (4* 20-9) (3*20-29) 5* SAN JOSE -- 4* west michigan over, utep over -- 4 louisville -- 3 air force, minnesota

   PURE LOCK 2 (5* 6-3) VIRGINIA

   RAIDER 1 (24-20) GOY HOUSTON

   REED HARRIS 2 (3-6) (26-28) notre dame, west michigan over, ohio state, arkansas, tennessee

   RIGHT ANGLE (2* 1-3) (8-7)

   SEBASTIAN 5 (27-11) (100* 14-10) (17-29) 300 ALABAMA -- 200 HOUSTON, OKLA STATE -- 100 STEAM OHIO STATE --- 100* arkansas, west virginia, no carolina -- oregon state, new mex, west michigan over

   SCORE 6 (500% 5-2) (400% 6-7) (13-16) 500 GEORGIA -- 400 NEW MEXICO -- 300 wake forest, ohio state

   SCOTT SPREITZER 1 (6-9) (38-29) (10-10) REVENGE GOY NORTH CAROLINA -- BIG 12 GAME OF MONTH TEXAS TECH --- SUNBELT GAME OF MONTH FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - georgia, nebraska, purdue over

   SILVER STAR 4 (10* 4-4) (9* 0-1) (14-21) 10 DUKE - 7 illinois - 6 iowa state

   SLAM DUNK 1 (0-1) (6-6) (11-12) TENNESSEE, SMU, BOWLING GREEN

   ED SLICK 4 (2* 4-3) (43-32) 2 OHIO STATE - 1 no carolina

   SOLID GOLD PICK 5 (1-0) (1-4) (24-8) NEW MEXICO, smu, ucla, kansas

   SPORTS ANALYST 5 (2-1) (2-4) (11-19) SAN JOSE STATE

   SPORTS AUTHORITY 9 (5-4) (7-6) (5* 8-7) CLEMSON --- OREGON STATE

   SPORTS BANK (500* 6-2) (400* 4-3) (5-9)

   SPORTS DOCTOR 9 (100* 6-1) (5-3) (11-12) 75 EAST CAROLINA - okla state

   SPORTS INVESTORS 5 (10* 5-5) (20-19) 10 AIR FORCE - 7 so miss, smu

   SPORTS NETWORK 1 (1-2) (14-22) (43-29) BOISE STATE, SAN JOSE STATE, clemson, louisville, california, iowa, michigan

   SPORT TRENDS 1 (2-1) (2-2) (55-48) MISSOURI, EAST CAROLINA, TEXAS, NEW MEXICO -- ALABAMA, GEORGIA -- boise state, houston, notre dame, central florida, kansas, oregon,, arkansas, tennessee,

   SPORTS UNLIMITED 8 (25* 1-0) (15* 1-0) (10* 1-3) (7* 3-1) (21-14) 10 WAKE FOREST - 5 clemson - 4 iowa

   STATISTICIAN 5 (100* 2-3) (9-12) (2-1) BIG 10 UNDERDOG GOY INDIANA --- MAC GOY OHIO --- CUSA GOY SMU --- IOWA, KENTUCKY, ARMY OVER

   SUPER LOCK 1 (10-14) GEORGIA TECH

   SUPER SYSTEMS 1 (0-1) (8-12) (4-7) IOWA, BOWLING GREEN, LOUISVILLE

   SWAMI 1 (1-2) (14-13) SAN JOSE STATE, NEW MEXICO

   TOUCHDOWN CLUB (10* 4-4) (9* 0-2) (24-17)

   THE COACH 9 (3* 3-5) (11-11) (6-12) 3 LSU - 2 SO MISS, SMU

   THE SPORTS GURU 4 (40* 2-7) (19-22) 40 CLEMSON - ohio state, kentucky

   TIPPS 1 (0-2) (10-9) (22-23) NOTRE DAME, TEXAS TECH, TEXAS, USC, ALABAMA

   TOMMY THUNDER 7 (10* 5-3) (9* 0-2) (13-23) 10 SAN JOSE - 8 wake forest - 6 iowa state

   TONY WRIGHT (10* 2-5) (13-12)

   TOP DAWG 1 (44-18) iowa, kansas state, kentucky, clemson, notre dame

   TRU-LINE 1 (0-1) (5-2) (13-12) WASHINGTON, boise state, usc under

   UNDERDOG (7-3)

   UNIVERSAL 1 (1-0) (2-3) (32-28) colorado, okla state, west michigan, wisconsin, rutgers

   USA SPORTS 1 (9-3) (27-28) michigan, san jose, new mexico, houston, tennessee, bowling green

   VEGAS CONNECTION 7 (3* 4-5) (2* 14-23) (1-3) CALIFORNIA -- CINCINNATI, TENNESSEE

   VEGAS PIPELINE 1 (1-1) (16-19) (6-8) SO CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, FLORIDA

   WAYNE ROOT 9 (5-2) (16-19) (22-17) PERFECT PLAY GOY IOWA ---- BILLIONAIRE UNLV --- INNER CIRCLE WAKE FOREST --- NO LIMIT NEBRASKA --- MONEY MAKER CLEMSON --- MILLIONAIRE lsu --- CHAIRMAN louisville

   WILDCAT (8-2) (4-7) (5-6)

   WINDY CITY 5 (10* 4-5) (9* 1-1) (18-18) 10 NORTH CAROLINA - 7 iowa state - 6 syracuse

   WINNERS PATH (5* 1-1) (2-1) (19-17)

   WISE GUYS 5 (3* 5-4) (16-21) (2-2) SO CAROLINA -- KANSAS, HAWAII

   WIZARD 1 (3-0) (8-9) (13-12) TENNESSEE, ILLINOIS, SO CAROLINA

   ADDITIONAL ***

   ETHAN LAW 1 4 PURDUE - 3 UTAH STATE - 2 louisiana tech, central florida, colos tate, west kentucky, vanderbilt

   VEGAS RUNNER 1 3* NEBRASKA

   BOB AKMEN 1 20* SAN JOSE STATE -- 10* LOUISVILLE, MINNESOTA, RICE, AIR FORCE

   GLEN McGREW 1 BIG EAST GOY WEST VIRGINIA

   ASA 1 4 ohio state, nebraska - 3 virginia, okla state

   F PATRON 1 ALABAMA

   SPYLOCK 1 minnesota, penn state, duke

   TEDDY COVERS 1 20* SO MISS

   CHIP CHIRIMBES 1 DOUBLE PLAY GOY IOWA

   GREG ROBERTS 1 GAME OF MONTH ALABAMA

   NORTHCOAST ADD ONS 1 BIG 12 texas tech --- PAC 10 ucla --- EARLY BIRD PLAY OF WEEK MISSOURI --- POWER PLAY notre dame --- ECONOMY CLUB rutgers --- BIG DOG utep, west kentucky, purdue, west michigan, san diego state, tex am, marshall, washington, california --- BIG 12 michigan --- WAC unlv --- CUSA central florida

   MATT ***** 1 BIG EAST GOY PITTSBURGH

   JOHN RYAN 1 10* TEXAS TECH OVER -- BAYLOR

   INDIAN COWBOY 1 PLAY OF THE DAY KENTUCKY -- louisville, colo state

   ALEX SMART 1 TEXAS AM

   SCOTT RICKENBACH 1 NOTRE DAME

   STEVEN NOVER 1 SEC GOY ALABAMA

   SAVANNAH 2 new mex state

   ROBERT ******** 2 GAME OF MONTH OHIO STATE

   SPECIAL K 2 OHIO STATE

   GUS MARONE 2 MISTAKE LINE GOY UTEP

   WILD BILL 2 GOY NEBRASKA

   IRON HORSE 2 BLOWOUT GOY OREGON STATE

   WIZZARD OF ODDS 2 LATE STEAM GOY FLORIDA

   FAIRWAY JAY 2 BIG 12 GOY BAYLOR

   CHRIS JORDAN 2 BLANK CHECK ALABAMA --- MINNESOTA

   GREG ROBERTS 3 GAME OF MONTH ALABAMA --- NEBRASKA

   CHICAGO SPS CONNECTION 3 OHIO STATE

   NSA 3 20 NEBRASKA -- 10 florida state, alabama, missouri over, notre dame

   HAWAII SPORTS WIRE 3 10* OHIO STATE

   NICK BOGDANOVICH 3 NEBRASKA, UL LAFAYETTE -- ucla under

   SWAMI (wagner group) 5 INSIDERS WAC GOY HAWAII

   ASA 5 7* OHIO STATE

   INSIDER 5 MICHIGAN STATE, KANSAS

   SMART MONEY 5 SO CAROLINA

   TOM STRYKER 5 WEST VIRGINIA

   CAROLINA 6 4 OHIO STATE, OKLA STATE

   ANIMAL 6 5* NORTH CAROLINA

   HEISMANN TROPHY 7 10* iowa, lsu, vandy, usc under

   STAN SHARP 8 BOSTON COLLEGE

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 8 2008 4:18pm