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   College Football Trend Report

   BUFFALO (3 - 4) at OHIO U (2 - 6) - 10/28/2008, 7:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   OHIO U is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

   OHIO U is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   HOUSTON (4 - 3) at MARSHALL (3 - 4) - 10/28/2008, 8:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

   HOUSTON is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   MARSHALL is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons

   HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   S FLORIDA (6 - 2) at CINCINNATI (5 - 2) - 10/30/2008, 7:45 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons

   CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   KENT ST (2 - 6) at BOWLING GREEN (3 - 5) - 11/1/2008, 2:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   KENT ST is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   KENT ST is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

   KENT ST is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   KENT ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

   KENT ST is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   BOWLING GREEN is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

   BOWLING GREEN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

   BOWLING GREEN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

   BOWLING GREEN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   BOWLING GREEN is 1-1 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons

   BOWLING GREEN is 1-1 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   C MICHIGAN (6 - 2) at INDIANA (3 - 5) - 11/1/2008, 12:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   C MICHIGAN is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

   C MICHIGAN is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

   C MICHIGAN is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

   C MICHIGAN is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

   C MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

   C MICHIGAN is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   AIR FORCE (6 - 2) at ARMY (3 - 5) - 11/1/2008, 12:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   AIR FORCE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   AIR FORCE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   ARMY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   AIR FORCE is 2-0 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons

   AIR FORCE is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   LOUISVILLE (5 - 2) at SYRACUSE (1 - 6) - 11/1/2008, 7:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SYRACUSE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   SYRACUSE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   SYRACUSE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   SYRACUSE is 2-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons

   SYRACUSE is 1-1 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   MIAMI (5 - 3) at VIRGINIA (5 - 3) - 11/1/2008, 12:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

   VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   W VIRGINIA (5 - 2) at CONNECTICUT (6 - 2) - 11/1/2008, 12:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   CONNECTICUT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

   CONNECTICUT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

   CONNECTICUT is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   W VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons

   W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   IOWA (5 - 3) at ILLINOIS (4 - 4) - 11/1/2008, 3:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   ILLINOIS is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

   ILLINOIS is 48-78 ATS (-37.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

   ILLINOIS is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) in home games since 1992.

   ILLINOIS is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   ILLINOIS is 1-1 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons

   IOWA is 2-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NORTHWESTERN (6 - 2) at MINNESOTA (7 - 1) - 11/1/2008, 12:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   NORTHWESTERN is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons

   NORTHWESTERN is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   DUKE (4 - 3) at WAKE FOREST (4 - 3) - 11/1/2008, 3:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   WAKE FOREST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   DUKE is 2-0 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons

   WAKE FOREST is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   IOWA ST (2 - 6) at OKLAHOMA ST (7 - 1) - 11/1/2008, 3:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   IOWA ST is 14-37 ATS (-26.7 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.

   OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.

   OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

   OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   MISSOURI (6 - 2) at BAYLOR (3 - 5) - 11/1/2008, 12:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   MISSOURI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

   BAYLOR is 50-77 ATS (-34.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

   BAYLOR is 48-75 ATS (-34.5 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

   BAYLOR is 15-36 ATS (-24.6 Units) in November games since 1992.

   BAYLOR is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

   BAYLOR is 15-36 ATS (-24.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   BAYLOR is 50-79 ATS (-36.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   AUBURN (4 - 4) at OLE MISS (4 - 4) - 11/1/2008, 12:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   AUBURN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.

   AUBURN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   OLE MISS is 2-0 against the spread versus AUBURN over the last 3 seasons

   AUBURN is 2-0 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   SAN DIEGO ST (1 - 7) at WYOMING (2 - 6) - 11/1/2008, 2:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games this season.

   WYOMING is 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

   WYOMING is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   WYOMING is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

   WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

   WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

   WYOMING is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

   WYOMING is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.

   WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

   WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.

   WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

   WYOMING is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

   WYOMING is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons

   WYOMING is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   E MICHIGAN (2 - 7) at W MICHIGAN (6 - 2) - 11/1/2008, 2:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   W MICHIGAN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   E MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons

   W MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   TULSA (8 - 0) at ARKANSAS (3 - 5) - 11/1/2008, 2:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   COLORADO (4 - 4) at TEXAS A&M (3 - 5) - 11/1/2008, 2:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   COLORADO is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

   COLORADO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

   COLORADO is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

   TEXAS A&M is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) at NOTRE DAME (5 - 2) - 11/1/2008, 2:30 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   FRESNO ST (5 - 2) at LOUISIANA TECH (3 - 4) - 11/1/2008, 2:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   FRESNO ST is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

   FRESNO ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   FRESNO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

   FRESNO ST is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

   FRESNO ST is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   FRESNO ST is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   LOUISIANA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons

   FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   HAWAII (4 - 4) at UTAH ST (1 - 7) - 11/1/2008, 3:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   UTAH ST is 1-1 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons

   HAWAII is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   TENNESSEE (3 - 5) at S CAROLINA (5 - 3) - 11/1/2008, 7:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   TENNESSEE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

   TENNESSEE is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons

   TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   FLORIDA (6 - 1) vs. GEORGIA (7 - 1) - 11/1/2008, 3:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   GEORGIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

   FLORIDA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   GEORGIA is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons

   GEORGIA is 1-1 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   WASHINGTON (0 - 7) at USC (6 - 1) - 11/1/2008, 6:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   USC is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

   USC is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   WASHINGTON is 2-0 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons

   USC is 2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NEBRASKA (5 - 3) at OKLAHOMA (7 - 1) - 11/1/2008, 8:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   OKLAHOMA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   OKLAHOMA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons

   OKLAHOMA is 1-0 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   OREGON (6 - 2) at CALIFORNIA (5 - 2) - 11/1/2008, 3:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   OREGON is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

   CALIFORNIA is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

   CALIFORNIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

   CALIFORNIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CALIFORNIA is 2-0 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons

   CALIFORNIA is 2-0 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   TEMPLE (3 - 5) at NAVY (5 - 3) - 11/1/2008, 3:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   NAVY is 102-70 ATS (+25.0 Units) in all games since 1992.

   NAVY is 96-64 ATS (+25.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

   NAVY is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

   NAVY is 45-20 ATS (+23.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

   NAVY is 102-70 ATS (+25.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NAVY is 1-1 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons

   NAVY is 2-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   KANSAS ST (4 - 4) at KANSAS (5 - 3) - 11/1/2008, 12:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   KANSAS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   KANSAS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

   KANSAS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   KANSAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

   KANSAS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

   KANSAS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   KANSAS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

   KANSAS is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in November games since 1992.

   KANSAS is 26-49 ATS (-27.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

   KANSAS is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   KANSAS is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons

   KANSAS is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   TEXAS (8 - 0) at TEXAS TECH (8 - 0) - 11/1/2008, 8:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   TEXAS TECH is 75-50 ATS (+20.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

   TEXAS TECH is 96-69 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

   TEXAS TECH is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.

   TEXAS TECH is 74-47 ATS (+22.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

   TEXAS TECH is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) in home games since 1992.

   TEXAS TECH is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

   TEXAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.

   TEXAS is 77-53 ATS (+18.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

   TEXAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

   TEXAS is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

   TEXAS is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in November games since 1992.

   TEXAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   TEXAS TECH is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons

   TEXAS is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   MICHIGAN (2 - 6) at PURDUE (2 - 6) - 11/1/2008, 12:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   MICHIGAN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.

   MICHIGAN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

   MICHIGAN is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

   MICHIGAN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

   MICHIGAN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons

   MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   WISCONSIN (4 - 4) at MICHIGAN ST (7 - 2) - 11/1/2008, 12:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   WISCONSIN is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   WISCONSIN is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   MICHIGAN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons

   WISCONSIN is 1-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   CLEMSON (3 - 4) at BOSTON COLLEGE (5 - 2) - 11/1/2008, 3:30 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons

   BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 straight up against CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   SAN JOSE ST (5 - 3) at IDAHO (2 - 7) - 11/1/2008, 5:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SAN JOSE ST is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

   SAN JOSE ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

   SAN JOSE ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

   SAN JOSE ST is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   SAN JOSE ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

   SAN JOSE ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.

   IDAHO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   IDAHO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

   IDAHO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   IDAHO is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

   IDAHO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

   IDAHO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

   IDAHO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   IDAHO is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 against the spread versus IDAHO over the last 3 seasons

   SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   BYU (7 - 1) at COLORADO ST (4 - 4) - 11/1/2008, 6:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   COLORADO ST is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   COLORADO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons

   BYU is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   WASHINGTON ST (1 - 7) at STANFORD (4 - 4) - 11/1/2008, 5:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   WASHINGTON ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games this season.

   WASHINGTON ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

   WASHINGTON ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.

   WASHINGTON ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as an underdog this season.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   WASHINGTON ST is 2-0 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons

   WASHINGTON ST is 2-0 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   BOISE ST (7 - 0) at NEW MEXICO ST (3 - 4) - 11/1/2008, 7:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   BOISE ST is 75-45 ATS (+25.5 Units) in all games since 1992.

   BOISE ST is 49-25 ATS (+21.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

   BOISE ST is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

   BOISE ST is 51-20 ATS (+29.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

   BOISE ST is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) in November games since 1992.

   BOISE ST is 46-18 ATS (+26.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

   BOISE ST is 51-27 ATS (+21.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

   BOISE ST is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   BOISE ST is 75-45 ATS (+25.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

   BOISE ST is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

   NEW MEXICO ST is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

   NEW MEXICO ST is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NEW MEXICO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons

   BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   KENTUCKY (5 - 3) at MISSISSIPPI ST (3 - 5) - 11/1/2008, 2:30 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons

   MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   FLORIDA ST (6 - 1) at GEORGIA TECH (6 - 2) - 11/1/2008, 3:30 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   TULANE (2 - 5) at LSU (5 - 2) - 11/1/2008, 8:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   TULANE is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

   LSU is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.

   LSU is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

   LSU is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   LSU is 1-1 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons

   LSU is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   TCU (8 - 1) at UNLV (3 - 5) - 11/1/2008, 8:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   TCU is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

   TCU is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

   UNLV is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

   UNLV is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   UNLV is 1-1 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons

   TCU is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   UAB (2 - 6) at SOUTHERN MISS (2 - 6) - 11/1/2008, 8:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SOUTHERN MISS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   SOUTHERN MISS is 1-1 against the spread versus UAB over the last 3 seasons

   SOUTHERN MISS is 2-0 straight up against UAB over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   RICE (5 - 3) at UTEP (3 - 4) - 11/1/2008, 9:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   RICE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   RICE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

   UTEP is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

   UTEP is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   RICE is 2-0 against the spread versus UTEP over the last 3 seasons

   RICE is 2-0 straight up against UTEP over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   UTAH (8 - 0) at NEW MEXICO (4 - 5) - 11/1/2008, 9:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   UTAH is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

   UTAH is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NEW MEXICO is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons

   NEW MEXICO is 1-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   ARIZONA ST (2 - 5) at OREGON ST (4 - 3) - 11/1/2008, 10:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   ARIZONA ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

   OREGON ST is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

   OREGON ST is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

   OREGON ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

   OREGON ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

   OREGON ST is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

   OREGON ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

   OREGON ST is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

   OREGON ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

   OREGON ST is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   OREGON ST is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) in home games since 1992.

   OREGON ST is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   OREGON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons

   OREGON ST is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NORTH TEXAS (0 - at W KENTUCKY (2 - 6) - 11/1/2008, 4:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   NORTH TEXAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NORTH TEXAS is 1-0 straight up against W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   ARKANSAS ST (4 - 3) at ALABAMA (8 - 0) - 11/1/2008, 2:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   ALABAMA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

   ALABAMA is 30-53 ATS (-28.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

   ALABAMA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

   ALABAMA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   ALABAMA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

   ALABAMA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   FLA INTERNATIONAL (3 - 4) at LA LAFAYETTE (4 - 3) - 11/1/2008, 5:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   LA LAFAYETTE is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons

   LA LAFAYETTE is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   TROY (5 - 2) at LA MONROE (2 - 6) - 11/1/2008, 7:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   LA MONROE is 1-1 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons

   TROY is 2-0 straight up against LA MONROE over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   E CAROLINA (4 - 3) at UCF (2 - 5) - 11/2/2008, 8:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   E CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus UCF over the last 3 seasons

   E CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against UCF over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 27 2008 3:02pm
2. 0 likes

   Power Sweep

   4* West Virginia over CONNECTICUT - LY it was contender vs pretender as both tms had just 1 BE loss and a UC win would have given them the conf title. WV rushed for 517 yds and led 66-14 mid-4Q. UC is 6-1 ATS as a HD but WV has covered both trips here winning by a 34-15 avg. Both teams are off big wins as WV defeated Aub 34-17 last Thurs. Pat White played his 1st full game in a month and RB Devine (PS#2) rushed for 207 yds (12.1) vs a stingy Aub D. They now face a Conn def all’g 79.8 rush ypg at home. Conn bounced back from 2 straight losses defeating Cin 40-16. Conn started its 3rd string QB and put the load on RB Brown who finished with 150 (5.2). He is avg 166 ypg (5.6) & 14 TD’s. WV has slight edges on off (#35-46) and def (#38-41) but a huge edge on ST’s (#19-111). Even with Conn on an 11-0 run at home, WV’s offense looks to be on track and they have won by an avg of 29 ppg the L/4 in this series. FORECAST: West Virginia 27 CONNECTICUT 17

   3* TEXAS A&M over Colorado - The HT has won 3 str by an avg of 11 ppg. A&M is 10-3-2 ATS in Nov HG’s. The Aggies got a much needed victory LW in Ames but they still all’d 574 yds (gained 509). QB Johnson seems to be in complete control of the pro style offense avg 219 ypg (65%) with a 15-5 ratio (397 ttl yds LW). The Aggies have been outgained by 63 ypg but CU has been outgained by 157 ypg in B12 play. CU is in a downward spiral as LW they ran into a MO tm (outgained by 292 yds) off B2B losses and in desperate need of a win. The Buffs have now dropped 5 str ATS & were shutout for the 1st time S/’88. HC Hawkins isn’t a big fan of the 2-QB system but 2 wks ago pulled the RS off QB Hansen (259 ttl yds) as his son, Cody (142 ypg, 56%, 11-6 ratio) seems to have lost some confidence running the offense. CU is 3-9 as an AD, but A&M is just 1-4 SU & ATS at Kyle Field TY. Aggies come in with the better off (#45-100), but CU has the D edge (#55-101). With both tms playing a killer sked (CU#15, A&M#19) a win here could decide who goes bowling as CU is in the 2nd of a tough B2B road spot facing a tm that needs a solid win at home for the fans. FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 34 Colorado 20

   3* Florida over Georgia - Jacksonville. UGA will now face the last 2 BCS Champs in B2B games after their huge win at LSU and this is the 3rd straight ranked tm that UGA has faced. LY UGA RB Moreno rushed for a career high 188 yds & 3 TD’s as the Bulldogs pounded the Gators 42-30 with UF QB Tebow at less than 100% (-15 rush) due to a shoulder injury. Georgia had the edge of a bye LY prior to UF, something that Florida had before most of their 15 series wins (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS). Neither team is off a bye TY, but UF had a bye 2 wks ago and only faced a banged up KY tm LW which they demolished 63-5 to run their streak of reg ssn gms to a 9-1 ATS record and won as our Early Bird POW. UF is 8-1 SU but just 4-4-1 ATS vs the “Big 3” (Tenn, UGA, FSU) under Meyer. The top 2 QB’s in the SEC face off with Tebow avg 202 pass ypg (63%) with a 12-2 ratio and 227 rush (2. while Stafford is avg 243 ypg (62%) with a 12-5 ratio. UGA RB Moreno has 925 (6.2). UGA has suffered some major injs along both lines, but stood up well to LSU LW (though outgained 497-443) as they scored 14 pts off 2 IR TD’s. UF is certainly healthier at this point and after being less than 100% LY, Tebow will go full-bore in this one. This gm is a National Title elimination gm because the winner goes to the SEC Title gm with 1 loss and a shot at moving up in the polls while the loser finishes #2 in the East with no assurance of a BCS bid. FORECAST: Florida 41 Georgia 27

   OTHER SELECTIONS

   2*NOTRE DAME over Pittsburgh - The Irish outgained Pitt 502-323 & outFD’d them 33-20 in their last meeting (‘05) & are now 12-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in the series. Pitt is in a BE sandwich but did upset the Irish here in ‘04 and the visitor has 3 straight outright upsets. LW ND crushed Wash 33-7 outgaining the Huskies 459-124. QB Clausen is avg 261 ypg (61%) with a 15-9 ratio & WR Tate has 31 rec (18.2). ND now faces a disarrayed Pitt defense that all’d 6 TD’s & 371 pass yds to a struggling RU offense. Pitt was stunned at home LW losing 54-34 to the Knights & knocking them from national rankings. Pitt had not all’d that many pts since a 60-6 loss to ND in 1996. QB Stull was KO’d in the 3Q (CS). RB “Shady” McCoy has rushed over 140+ yds the L/4 gms. Pitt has a slight edge on off (#29-32) while ND has def (#25-39) and ST’s (#48-81) edges as well as huge HF advantage. ND does have Catholic rival BC on deck but will not look ahead here and keep in mind ND knocked Pitt out of the national spotlight in ‘03 & ‘05. The Irish are 18-7 at Notre Dame Stadium in Nov & hand Pitt their 2nd straight loss in convincing fashion. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 31 Pittsburgh 17

   2* Wisconsin over MICHIGAN ST - UW is 3-8 SU in Nov AG & LY MSU had a 564-461 yd edge on the road but was SOD with 1:00 left at the UW38 in a 37-34 loss (+7). Last time here (‘04), MSU (+8) rolled to a 49-14 win over the #5 ranked & undefeated Badgers. UW ended their 0-4 conf start with a 27-17 win over IL in which they outrushed the Illini 163-88. QB Sherer hit 12-22 for 174 yds vs the Illini & outdueled the B10’s ttl off leader Williams with a 40-4 yd rush edge, 3-2 TD edge and had 0 int’s to Juice’s 3. With RB Hill limited (leg), Clay (PS#3) ran for 88 yds. Badgers allow 161 rush ypg (4.6) in conf play all’g Greene 217 & Beanie Wells 168. Despite missing 3 FG’s, MSU won in Michigan Stadium for the 1st time S/’90 as they outgained the Wolves 473-252 & outFD’d them 22-13. Ringer (NCAA #2 1373, 4.6) ran for 194 yds and Hoyer had his best outing of the season (17-29 for 282 yds & 3 TD). MSU allows 163 rush ypg (4.5) in B10 play. Wisky may have turned their ssn around while MSU might still be celebrating their rivalry win over ‘big brother.’ FORECAST: Wisconsin 27 MICHIGAN ST 24

   2* Nebraska (+) over OKLAHOMA - This used to be one of the top rivalries in the NCAA but they have only met 5 times in 10 yrs incl the B12 Title game in ‘06 (OU -3’, 21-7). HT is 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. Pelini was the co-DC & DB’s cch under Stoops at OU in ‘04. Sooners destroyed KSU LW on the scoreboard as TO’s helpded them put up 55 pts in the 1H (most in school history) as they were actually outgained (KSU 550 yds). QB Bradford who is #2 in the Heisman race is avg 347 ypg (68%) with a 29-5 ratio. OU has dropped at least 35 pts on every opp TY outgaining foes by 197 ypg. NU got one step closer to a bowl berth LW taking care of BU (147 yd edge). QB Ganz is avg 288 ypg (70%) with a 15-6 ratio. Both offenses (OU#1-14) are very potent, but OU has the def edge (#18-49). Huskers are ranked #39 in our pass eff def all’g 218 ypg (60%) with a 7-5 ratio while OU comes in at #9 (267 ypg, 55% 13-12 ratio). NU is 5-10 as an AD and OU has won 22 straight home gms (13-7-1 ATS) but is 1-4 as a B12 HF of 20+ and their D has allowed 37 ppg L/3. NU has opened up their offense the L/3 and will do enough to stay within the number. FORECAST: Nebraska 31 (+) OKLAHOMA 45

   UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

   Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-128. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS

   to the incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:

   Texas Tech +6 over Texas

   #1 Texas (8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS) is in the last leg of what Brown called “maybe the toughest 4 gm stretch in UT history.” Horns have won 5 in a row SU and in ‘06 here TT jumped out to a 24-7 lead but lost 35-31 (+10). LY UT won 59-43 (-6’) and Leach was furious with the officials after the gm. TT is 24-6 at home in Nov (7 straight wins). UT is 19-9-2 ATS in Nov. The HT is 7-3 ATS. UT looked its most vulnerable LW as they escaped OSU. Heisman frontrunner QB McCoy is avg 286 ypg (82%) with a 21-4 ratio (int & fmbl LW but set UT record w/18 straight comp). WR Shipley has 58 rec (12.7) & LW set a UT record w/15 rec (11.2). TT is 8-0 for the 1st time S/’76 after crushing KU LW (556-315 yd edge, 35+ pts in every gm TY). QB Harrell is avg 393 ypg (71%) with a 28-5 ratio and fellow Heisman hopeful WR Crabtree has 60 rec (13.2). TT is 13-6 ATS as a HD & is 4-4 under Leach with 3 outright upsets incl ‘02’s win over UT 42-38 (+6’). Both offenses are potent (TT#3-5), but UT has def (#6-23) & ST (#28-87) edges. Horns are ranked #21 in our pass eff def all’g 266 ypg (58%) with a 13-5 ratio & the Red Raiders come in at #40 (246 ypg, 63%, 10-14 ratio). Under Leach TT is 44-10 SU & 28-19 ATS in Lubbock as it’s always a tough place to play for opp’s. Keep in mind that UT has beaten 3 straight ranked foes, but at a neutral site (played in every yr) and 2 HG’s & the last time they played in a hostile B12 road environment they lost outright in College Station 38-30 (-7). FORECAST: TEXAS TECH 37 Texas 34

   4* NY GIANTS over Dallas - The Giants are off a tough game vs PIT delivering as our 4H Oct NFL GOM & have a SNF game at PHI on deck. This is the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for DAL but they have covered 6 straight games before a bye. DAL won both reg season games SU & ATS LY falling to the Giants in the playoffs moving to 2-7 ATS in the series. LY in NY it was 17-17 at the half but DAL pulled ahead with 25 & 50 yd TD passes to Owens winning 31-20 as a 1.5 pt AF. The yardage

   was basically even but the DAL pass attack tallied 247 yds (71%) with a 4-1 ratio. DAL barely squeaked out a win vs TB LW as they were held to just 172 yds of offense. The defense came up big holding TB to 49 yds (2.5) rushing which was 81 yds off their season avg. They also held TB to just 3 FG’s on 4 trips inside the DAL 20. Johnson was less than impressive with 122 yds (58%) with a 1-0 ratio & just a 3.7 ypa. DAL already thin secondary lost CB Henry (quad) LW & is doubtful. NYG are off a big win vs PIT as they rattled Roethlisberger with 5 sacks, 4 QBH & 4 int which set up 6 pts. The Giants had 6 drives inside the PIT 20 while PIT had just 6 plays in NYG territory in the 2H. The Cowboys’ celebration after the win vs TB shows that they realize they are a mediocre team without Romo & the Giants take a big step in locking down the division with a win here. FORECAST: NY GIANTS 38 Dallas 17

   3* BUFFALO over NY Jets - The Jets were swept SU & ATS by BUF LY dropping to 2-7 ATS. Edwards made his 1st career start vs NYJ at home LY (17-14 win 3.5 pt HD) & had a strong game with 234 yds (58%) with a 1-1 ratio. Edwards was KO’d in the 3Q of the 2nd game with 130 yds (67%) with a 1-0 ratio. BUF is 7-2 ATS as a div HF. NYJ are 6-0 ATS as a div AD. BUF is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS at home TY with 20-14 FD & 362-254 yd edges. The Jets beat KC in spite of Favre who had 2 of his 3 int set up 14 pts as the defense gave up 280 yds to a 2nd year QB making his 2nd start. Favre hasn’t looked very comfortable the L3W with just 225 ypg (67%) with a 3-7 ratio & a poor 6.1 ypa. BUF was taken by surprise by an aggressive MIA defense which kept Edwards out of sync LW with 227 yds (60%) with an int & fmbl. BUF was without their best DL in DE Schobel for the 2nd week & while they didn’t have much of a pass rush (1 sack 2 QBH) they expect him back. We’ll continue to play against the Jets as their 3 wins were vs MIA in Wk 1 who was still trying to fit together, the hapless Bengals & an ARZ team whose 2 Wk East Coast trip left them out of sync. FORECAST: BUFFALO 27 NY Jets 13

   OTHER SELECTIONS

   2* OAKLAND (+) over Atlanta - This game pits LY’s top drafted QB in Russell vs TY’s top drafted QB in Ryan facing off. OAK is 0-5 SU & ATS vs the NFC. ATL is 6-1 ATS away vs AFC. The Falcons are determined to let Ryan develop at his own speed & have an edge with a healthy RB unit (#4 rushing) with a solid WR in White (43 rec 15. to throw to. OAK has been pressing Russell to develop faster with a beat up RB unit (McFadden out LW turf toe) & Walker (12 rec 13.5) is the only WR with more than 9 rec (TE Miller #1 20 rec 15.6). Like most young QB’s Russell is better at home (1-2 ATS TY) passing for 220 ypg (60%) with a 4-1 ratio than on the road. The Raiders did upset the last East Coast team with a more experienced QB just 2 weeks ago. ATL has been outgained in all 4 road games (1-3 ATS) by a 388-302 margin losing by an avg score of 25-15. Ryan is avg 197 ypg (51%) with a 4-5 ratio & 5.5 ypa on the road. LW’s results provide solid line value here with an overachieving dome team with a rookie QB making a long road trip & we’ll side with an embarrassed home team getting points as the Ugly Dog Play which is 23-9 (72%) with 6 straight wins. FORECAST: OAKLAND 17 Atlanta 16

   2* MINNESOTA over Houston - The Vikings are 6-2 ATS when they return from their bye. This is HOU’s 1st road game since 9/28 & non-div road teams off 3 or more HG’s are 4-9 ATS S/’03. HOU is 3-8 ATS away vs the NFC. This has MIN #8 & #8 units (-4 TO’s) vs HOU’s #1 & #12 (-3 TO’s). Both of MIN’s starting DT’s could be susp for 4 games due to masking agents. While MIN is only 1-2 ATS at home TY they have pulled in a 332-246 yd edge & should have beaten IND. HOU has won 3 of their 4 straight HG’s & while they also should have beaten IND the fact is they have faced the 17th, 20th, 32nd & 22nd defenses & now have to face MIN’s #8 defense. While he hasn’t put up the mind boggling numbers of LY RB Peterson has four 100+ yd games TY & has avg’d 98 ypg (4.5) & now faces a HOU defense allowing 120 ypg (4.5). MIN’s #20 pass def ranking is misleading as teams avoid the run & while Schaub has been hot he now has to face the #12 pass rush in a notoriously loud venue & the home team is the play. FORECAST: MINNESOTA 24 Houston 16

   3★ Cardinals/Rams Over 46*

   3★ Dolphins/Broncos Over 47

   3★ Eagles/Seahawks Over 43'

   2★ Jaguars/Bengals Under 40'

   2★ Ravens/Browns Under 36

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 29 2008 2:55pm
3. 0 likes

   Pointwise 10/28--11/3

   COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

   1--MICHIGAN STATE over Wisconsin 38-17

   1--Oregon (+) over CALIFORNIA 33-30

   2--OREGON STATE over Arizona State 44-17

   3--TEXAS TECH (+) over Texas 47-45

   3--Florida over Georgia 37-20

   4--LOUISIANA TECH (+) over Fresno State 30-27

   5--USC over Washington 60-6

   5--STANFORD over Washington State 54-13

   NFL KEY RELEASES

   3--BUFFALO over ny jets 27-17

   4--Tampa Bay over KANSAS CITY 23-10

   4--MINNESOTA over Houston 34-24

   5--NY GIANTS over Dallas 27-10

   5--WASHINGTON over Pittsburgh 22-16

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 29 2008 2:55pm
4. 0 likes

   CKO

   11 *NOTRE DAME over Pittsburgh

   Late Score Forecast:

   *NOTRE DAME 35 - Pittsburgh 16

   10 KANSAS STATE over *Kansas

   Late Score Forecast:

   KANSAS STATE 33 - *Kansas 34

   10 *LSU over Tulane

   Late Score Forecast:

   *LSU 45 - Tulane 10

   10 EAST CAROLINA over *Ucf

   Late Score Forecast:

   East Carolina 32 - *UCF 17

   (Sunday, November 2)

   10 JACKSONVILLE over *Cincinnati

   Late Score Forecast:

   JACKSONVILLE 27 - *Cincinnati 10

   (Sunday, November 2)

   Don’t look now, but HC Charlie Weis again has Notre Dame shaking down a little thunder. The Irish have won 5

   straight at South Bend (covered 4), by a margin of 14 ppg. ND QB Jimmy Clausen is maturing rapidly, as he’s thrown

   for 302 ypg, with a 9-3 TD-to-int. mark in the last 4 games, and the Irish trio of RBs Allen, Hughes and Aldridge have

   produced a respectable 156 YR & 6 rush TDs over the same span. Frosh WR Michael Floyd is emerging as a major

   weapon, as he’s averaged 100 ypg receiving and scored 4 TDs in the last 5 games. Pittsburgh RB LeSean McCoy

   is very dangerous, but the Panthers haven’t taken care of the ball well enough this season (100th in TO margin). The

   Pitt defense, which ranks 94th in pass efficiency, was burned for 361 yards and 6 TD passes by Rutgers QB Mike

   Teel last week. Clausen should have similar success, as ND makes a bid to break back into the national rankings.

   With both teams having defensive problems, Big XII scouts recommend grabbing points with very offensively

   competent Kansas State in this classic handicapping spot (double-digit rivalry road dogs usually tend to hang close

   when the talent difference is not great). Both teams had an uncharacteristic five giveaways in blowout losses last

   week, But Kansas very much misses the power running they had LY with Brandon McAnderson. And KSU coach

   Ron Prince has spruced up the Wildcat WR corps for future NFL QB Josh Freeman (15 TDP vs. 5 ints; plus 13 TD runs

   TY). Now in the middle of his junior season, Freeman is experienced enough to keep his poise in raucous Lawrence.

   And Prince’s special teams have already generated five TDs TY.

   After plummeting to 15th in the AP poll and being essentially scratched from the SEC race, angry LSU can’t wait to

   vent vs. overmatched Tulane, which has dropped 3 straight winnable games in October following a promising

   September. Tigers growing but mistake-prone QB Lee (58%, 11 TDs, 9 ints., 4 returned for TDs) welcomes an

   undersized, depth-shy Green Wave defense (850 yds. last two weeks) after facing a 5-game stretch of physical,

   fast SEC stop units. Meanwhile, Tulane attack highly unsettled with premier RB Anderson (852 YR) sidelined with

   an injury, and HC Bob Toledo undecided about whether he stays with struggling 6-4 soph QB K. Moore or switches

   to RS frosh QB J. Kemp, who showed flashes vs. Rice but still hasn’t mastered the offense. With either guy,

   disheartened Toledo says, “My offense is beat up and incapable of making big plays right now.” That will certainly

   be the case vs. athletic but embarrassed LSU defense primed for a confidence-booster in preparation for upcoming

   Bama game.

   East Carolina insiders say highly-regarded HC Skip Holtz has the Pirates poised for strong stretch drive, getting his

   squad to re-focus on winning the C-USA title after three straight losses put the kibosh on some way-too-early BCS

   buzz. Meanwhile, season continues to turn pear-shaped on disappointing UCF, which has lost 5 of last 6 games. No

   big mystery as to Knights’ main malady—they rank dead last in the nation in total offense, mustering fewer than 250

   ypg. Huge edge to potent ECU strike force, which will attack on multiple fronts with both savvy sr. QB Patrick Pinkney

   or rocket-armed jr. triggerman Rob Kass, who fired 2 TDP in rested Pirates’ home win over Memphis on Oct. 18. And

   don’t forget, even with slight regression to mean recently, Holtz still an immensely-profitable 29-15 vs. spread since

   taking over at Greenville.

   Cincy’s situation might be even more dire than the GOP’s Congressional prospects for next week’s election. There’s

   not much evidence winless Bengals can turn around a campaign that officially went into free-fall mode when Carson

   Palmer’s elbow began acting up, thus exposing a glaring roster shortcoming at QB that wasn’t properly addressed

   in offseason. With Palmer likely on shelf again and little used ex-Harvard man Ryan Fitzpatrick taking snaps, Cincy

   “O” has slowed to a crawl (just 10 ppg last 3) and has yet to cover any of Fitzpatrick’s 4 starts. Moreover,

   beleaguered HC Marvin Lewis’ status reportedly on a week-to-week basis. True, J’ville hasn’t been a trustworthy

   favorite TY (0-5), but Jags have weaponry to extend margin and get back into AFC wild card chase.

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 29 2008 2:56pm
5. 0 likes

   rest of power sweep

   NEWS AND NOTES - Florida blocked 2 punts and a FG all 3 setting up TD’s early as they rolled to a 63-5 romp over Kentucky...Texas Tech already led 42-14 when Todd Reesing was int’d on 3 of his next 4 passes and TT extended it to 63-14 before KU got an 80/16pl drive for a garbage TD with 3:52 left.The key play of the game happened with Texas leading 21-14 3Q. McCoy was int’d but roughing the QB gave UT a FD and they converted a TD a few plays later to lead 28-14 and held on for a 28-24 win. Over the last 3 games Colt McCoy has thrown for 333 ypg, completing 84% with an 8-1 ratio...The steady rain greatly aided Navy in their game vs SMU. SMU came in avg 332 ypg passing and was held to 157. Navy became the first team in Div IA in the last 11 years to go an entire game without attempting a pass, the last was Ohio vs Akron in 1997. Navy rushed for 440 yds on 77 carries...While Texas A&M beat Iowa St 49-35, showing what kind of year it’s been for the Aggies D, the 35 points they allowed was actually the fewest they’ve given up in conf play. The Aggies did lead 49-28 when ISU got a TD with 3:30 left and ISU gained 60 yds on their final drive giving them the yardage and FD edges...For the first time in their school history, LSU has yielded 50+ points twice in the same season! Georgia did get a pair of IR TD’s and while LSU had 497-443 yd and 21-16 FD edges, they trailed by 14-21 points almost the entire 2H...Cal only led UCLA 20-13 in the 4Q but UCLA faked a punt on 4th & 23 and gained 22 yds. Cal ran a flea-flicker for a 53 yd TD pass on the next play and then added a 20 yd IR TD to lead 34-13 with the TD’s coming within :19 of each other. Cal did add another TD with 2:08 left for a 41-13 lead before UCLA got an 81 yd KR setting up a garbage TD with 1:33 left...The 54 points Pitt allowed was their most since 1996 and also the most they have allowed at home since 1993. Rutgers was held to 12 points or fewer 4 times but shockingly had 54 vs the Panthers and Mike Teel set a school record with 6 TD passes...Missouri trailed Texas 35-0 late in the 2Q last week but rebounded big time. They got their first shutout over a Big 12 opponent since 1988. The Tigers led 34-0 at the half with a 298-33 yd edge and coasted 58-0...Vandy’s 6th win has been tough to come by as they dropped their 3rd straight and will likely be an underdog in each of the last 4 games. Duke led 10-0 after 3Q’s despite being SOD at the VU39 and missing 33 and 34 yd FG’s. Duke also fmbl’d at the VU9 with :03 left in the 3Q. VU got a 79 yd TD pass 4pl later to get back in it. VU missed a 43 yd FG and then was SOD at their own 19. On their last drive VU got to the 39 but was int’d at the 1 with :38 left...USC had a battle in the desert and 2 key plays helped them win by 7. Arizona was stopped on 4th & inches at midfield mid-4Q and then with USC pinned at their own 3, Johnson fumbled at their 10 but TE McCoy picked it up and ran an additional 29 yds to the 39 allowing them to escape the shadow of their own EZ...Kent St finally played to its talent level and waxed Miami, Oh 54-21. Kent St had a 468-318 yd edge on the road. MU gained a lot of its yards late with two 4Q TD’s...Notre Dame demolished Washington on the road with 25-9 FD and 459-124 yd edges. The Huskies avoided their first home shutout loss since 1976 scoring a TD with 2:56 left. In the 1H ND had a 238-38 yd edge...ULM led Florida Atlantic almost start to finish jumping out to a 21-0 lead but FAU battled back and got a TD with :22 left in the game to pull out the win.

   THIS YEAR’S MOST DISAPPOINTING TEAMS - Arizona St is right at the head of the list of this year’s most disappointing teams as they came into the season as a contender for the Pac-10 Title but have not only been losing, but getting blown out. Oregon led 44-13 after 3Q’s with ASU getting a TD with :52 left in a 54-20 loss...Alabama beat Tennessee on the 4th Saturday of October in the “3rd Saturday In October” rivalry. UA got off to their usual strong start in the 1H with a 13-3 edge but this time won the 2H as well (16-6) in their 29-9 win. They managed 23-10 FD and 366-173 yd edges as the seat got a bit hotter for Phil Fulmer. Tenn scored a TD mid-4Q trailing 29-3 and their only FG was set up by a fumbled punt at the 5.

   ANOTHER WEEK OF NEAR MISSES FOR THE BIG DOG PLAYS - We used our College Totals GOY on Over 59’ in the UNLV/BYU game. The teams scored on almost every poss of the 1H and it was 21-21. UNLV got a TD with 6:49 left to lead 35-34. BYU drove for a TD with 1:46 left, 42-35 but UNLV had their chance to win. The Rebels went 55/11pl and had a FD at the BYU13 but a sk forced a 3rd & 21 Hail Mary which was int’d in the EZ...Fresno St’s K Kevin Goessling has struggled this year including 3 missed FG’s vs Wisconsin and 2 in OT vs Hawaii. Utah St appeared to get a Big Dog outright upset winner as they scored a TD with :38 left to lead FSU 28-27 but FSU got 19 and 6 yd passes and Goessling hit a 58 yd FG on the game’s final play to pull out the win...San Diego St piled up 392 yds vs Colorado St and led 17-10 at the half but couldn’t hold on losing 38-34 although they did get the cover.

   TURNOVERS CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE - Cincinnati

   had a 6-0 TO deficit to Connecticut and was also SOD twice so it was like having 8 TO’s. UC led 13-10 at the half and started Tony Pike, who had missed the previous 4 games with injury. Pike only lasted the 1H hitting 10 of 27 and Chazz Anderson was 9 of 20 in the 2H. Conn was also missing their QB Zach Frazer and 3rd 25Years

   Volume 26 Issue 10 November 1, 2008 1-800-654-3448

   string Cody Endres started and hit 18 of 42 for 196. It was 23-16 when Conn got a 40 yd IR to the 22 setting up a 22 yd FG with 5:46 left, 26-16. Conn got 2 TD’s in the final 2:00 and Cincy had a 16-15 FD edge but lost by 24 points...Northwestern had a 5-0 TO deficit vs Indiana. One of the key plays came when they fumbled at their own 34 with 1:04 left in the half leading 9-7. Indy, 7 plays later, got a TD with :11 left in the half to lead 14-9. NU, trailing 21-19, was int’d at the Indy36 with 4:03 left and then on 2nd & 1 backup QB Kafka was hit from behind and fmbl’d and Indy rec’d at the 8 with 1:34 left and took a knee for the win. NU had a 23-17 FD edge but lost RB Sutton (wrist) and QB Bachér (leg) to inj.

   STREAKS - Michigan’s streak of 33 straight bowls appears to be in serious jeopardy as they already lost their 6th game and have no margin for error. Their schedule also includes a road trip to Ohio St. This, despite the fact they benefitted from a blown replay call where the receiver only hit the pylon and not the ground. NCAA rules state that he should have been ruled OOB but was given a TD. MSU had a 473-252 yd edge but missed 3 FG’s and UM actually led 21-14 late 3Q but lost by 14 points.

   FOURTEEN POINT TURNAROUND - After AF turned the ball over on 3 of their first 4 poss, NM was in control. They led 10-0 and were deep in AF terr when they fmbl’d at the 4. AF ret’d it 96 yds for a TD and instead of NM leading 17-0, it was 10-7. At the half NM had a 177-122 yd edge but it was 10-10. NM fmbl’d the opening KO of the 3Q and then was SOD at the AF10 after a 62/12pl drive. NM was int’d at the AF17 and fmbl’d a punt setting up an AF 43 yd FG and lost 23-10 despite a 303-228 yd edge...Wake Forest came into the Miami game just #111 in the NCAA in rushing (93 ypg, 2.6 ypc) but rushed for 195 yds vs Miami, Fl. Unfortunately, Riley Skinner hit just 3 of 8 passes. WF had a 185-110 yd edge at the half and led 10-3 but UM’s D took over in the 2H and the Hurricanes won by 6....Rutgers got their first road win vs a ranked team since 1988...USF gave up a TD with 7:07 left and trailed UL 24-20. UL missed a 36 yd FG with 2:10 left but USF was called for def holding with a player lifting another player to blk the FG, which gave UL the FD and they ran out the clock...N Illinois QB Chandler Harnish became the first Huskie QB since 1990 to top 100 yds rushing in a game. K Mike Salerno not only booted the game-winning 30 yd FG with :12 left, but he tied a school record with a 52 yd FG in the 1Q.

   MISLEADING FINALS, BACKDOOR AND FRONTDOOR COVERS - At the end of the 1Q there were only 2 FD’s in the Boise St/San Jose St game but each team had a TD as Boise blk’d a punt setting up a 14 yd drive for a TD and SJSt got a 62 yd IR TD. It was still 26-16 late when BSU went on a 55/7pl drive for a TD with 1:04 left and BSU did have a 393-207 yd edge with the misleading part being the total points scored... Nebraska had a shot at covering vs Baylor. They missed an xp with 12:11 left. NU then drove 78/7pl and had a 1st & gl at the 5 but Castille fmbl’d it at the 2. After BU was tkl’d for a safety, 32-20 (6:59), NU was SOD at the BU37 with 4:42 left. BU actually punted with 2:52 left and NU got 2 FD’s to run out the clock...Oklahoma and Kansas St each had 23 FD’s but the Sooners won by 23 taking advantage of 5 KSU TO’s. The game was tied at 28 with 8:00 left in the 1H when OU drove for a TD. KSU then turned it over twice setting up short TD drives and OU got a 68 yd PR TD to lead 55-28 at the half. OU QB Sam Bradford had his worst completion % hitting just 13 of 32 passes for 255 yds and the Sooners scored just 3 points in the 2H but KSU missed a 49 yd FG, was SOD at the OU 1, int’d at the OU34 and SOD twice on the 41 on their last 4 drives...Mississippi St appeared to get the frontdoor cover vs Middle Tenn driving 51/11pl for a TD with 4:45 left. MTSt went 76/16pl converting on 3rd & 7 and 4th & 1 and got a TD with 2:45 left for the backdoor cover...Mississippi led Arkansas 20-7 in the 4Q but UA got a TD with 4:28 left to get in the backdoor, 20-14. Ole Miss got ahead of the spread with a 29 yd FG with 1:45 left but Arkansas hit 29, 19 and 22 yd passes on the next 3pl getting a TD with 1:07 left for the backdoor cover. UA rec’d the onside kick but their 4th & 25 pass fell incomplete.

   INJURY SYSTEM - One of our favorite systems is the Injury System as just when it looks bleakest when the top players are out for the team they usually rebound with a win. Memphis was not only without its starting QB Arkelon Hall, but also lost backup QB Will Hudgens. Fourth stringer Tyler Bass, who shared time with 3rd stringer Brett Toney in this game, left with an injury in the 3Q and Toney was the team’s lone remaining QB. Bass had hit 10 of 13 for 130 while Toney hit 7 of 13 for 102. MU was actually a 5 pt home dog despite coming in 3-5 while SM was just 2-5. UM led 36-24 before SM got a 2 yd TD pass on the game’s final play.

   INJURIES OF NOTE - Virginia Tech lost their starting QB (Taylor) on the first series of the game. Backup QB Glennon went out in the 3Q with injury and Cory Holt QB’d most of the 4Q hitting just 3 of 6 for 28 yds. VT led 10-0 after 1Q and FSU did not get their first FD until early 2Q with VT having a 205-70 yd edge at the half. Florida St scored TD’s on drives of 66, 71 and 45 yds to open the 3Q and after VT fumbled the KO at their 26, added a 29 yd FG to lead 27-13...Purdue QB Curtis Painter hurt his throwing shoulder in the 1Q, missed some time and then DNP in the 2H. PU was down to their #3 QB who was playing RB the previous week and Siller hit 10-17 for 73 yds but he was sk’d 4x and int’d once. PU also had a 4-1 TO deficit..Hawaii QB Greg Alexander was inj’d early in the year and entered the Nevada game as the 3rd string QB but sparked the team off the bench. He had a 24 yd TD pass with :20 left as UH was in FG range to win it. UH hadn’t scored in the 1Q since the 2nd week of the season. Alexander was the starter for the season opener vs Florida and hit 17 of 22 for 205 yds, one of three QB’s that the Warriors used.

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 29 2008 2:57pm
6. 0 likes

   10/23/2008

   DIRECT FROM NEVADA

   WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH

   KEYS TO FINDING "BIG" PLAYS

   Last week I won my Big Ten Game of the Year when Iowa routed Wisconsin 38-16. This weekend I'll be releasing my College Game of the Year for 2008. So, I figured today would be the ideal time to talk about the factors that go into finding those special caliber of releases.

   With my background in oddsmaking, and as a big bettor, you probably think my big plays are keyed by line value. That's true to a degree. But, you really need A LOT of factors to step out on a special game. It's not enough to say "the line is -10 and I think it should be -12" or something. Or, "the public likes the favorite too much and I'm getting a couple of free points." Those are your bread and butter plays. You make a lot of money over time on your bread and butter plays. It takes more than that for this kind of release.

   For a big play, I want to make sure I've got a team that I'm certain will show up with peak intensity. I want their full attention on this game. No distractions. I want to go against an opponent that's either distracted, demoralized, or physically worn down from the season. Line value is important. But, the outside factors need to suggest that I'm going to be on the right side 60-65% of the time. Even more. Not just that -10 is the line and it should be -12...but -10 is the line and the favorite is going to win by more than that most every time they take the field barring turnovers or fluke plays. It's about line value and success percentage.

   Let me discuss some of the reasons I liked Iowa so much last week:

   Iowa was a good team who had finally got things moving in the right direction. After some tough losses where they won stats, they blew out Indiana the prior week. This group was enthusiastic, and ready to make a statement against a big name opponent.

   Iowa also had revenge from a loss the prior season. I'm not a big revenge guy. But, I do think it's a nice "kicker" to have when other edges are in place. The important thing to me was that I knew Iowa wouldn't take their foot off the gas if things were going well. They wouldn't relax too soon and lose their focus. That doesn't happen to good teams in revenge spots. If I'm making a big bet on a team, I want to know they'll be playing for me the full 60 minutes.

   Wisconsin had lost three brutal games in a row. Two were heartbreakers to Michigan and Ohio State. The third was a rout at the hands of Penn State. The Badgers are used to competing for Big Ten championships and major bowl appearances. They're not used to losing three games in a row. I won't say I thought they'd thrown in the towel on the season. But, I knew they were demoralized and lacking confidence.

   Wisconsin was using a quarterback shuffle. That's always a sign of a program that doesn't know what it wants to do. Nobody has confidence in a quarterback shuffle. That means the team was demoralized, AND very unlikely to get things figured out this week. There were a lot of reasons to go against Wisconsin last week no matter who they were playing given the state of the program.

   Line value. Here's where it comes into play. Iowa was pretty inexpensive on a strong home field. The public still didn't respect them because of earlier losses to Pittsburgh and Michigan State. And, the public still thought of Wisconsin as a "name" program. Iowa was just -3.5 or -4 when I released the game. Maybe some full season computer ratings or power ratings would put the number in that vicinity. Given my read of the programs RIGHT NOW, I thought the "right" number was much higher...and that Iowa would cover that low threshold a tremendous percentage of the time. I was happy to see other respected bettors coming in on Iowa during the course of the morning. It was a good sign that sharps were on the same game, and kept betting it even as the line went up.

   When looking for standard plays, your concern is line value. When looking for BIG plays, you want to study all of these other indicators to find blowout potential. You want to bet the motivated team and bet against the distracted or demoralized team. These spots come up time and time again during the football season.

   See if you can find:

   Two ships passing in the night. One team is surging after getting things figured out, while the other is slumping because things are falling apart. I'd bet if you looked hard enough you could find an example of this in almost every betting conference.

   Teams who are wearing down from attrition. This is a huge factor in the final month of the college football season. Some teams throw in the towel because they know it's a wasted season. Others are trying hard, but are just too shorthanded from injuries to compete. You also have some teams who start experimenting with younger talent. They're basically starting their 2009 season early and working out the kinks now. You definitely want to go against those teams because they don't even care about the score. They're just working on getting some of the fundamentals down.

   A crippling loss of confidence. When a team stops believing in its head coach, or in its starting quarterback, they usually never get the fire back. It will take new players coming in during the offseason, or a coaching change to bring the team back to life. This is something that happens in the second half of the season quite a bit. Power ratings and stats won't give this negative due justice. Teams will play much worse than the numbers would suggest once they've stopped drinking the kool-aid.

   Teams who have special reason to play well THIS week. That could be due to revenge, making a statement about the polls, making up for a bad result the prior week. Sometimes a coach gets the players sky high for one huge performance in a given week. A trained handicapping eye can see these spots coming.

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 29 2008 5:28pm
7. 0 likes

   Missouri 41 BAYLOR 20 - Mizzou is 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS vs BU in B12 play (avg 40 ppg & 270 rush ypg, 5.2). The Tigers bounced back in a big way LW hammering CU 58-0 with a 491-199 yd edge (CU had 64 yds on last drive of gm). QB Daniel is avg 334 ypg (77%) with a 23-6 ratio. BU is 1-9 SU/ATS on HC and just 2-11 as a HD (2-8 in B12). The Bears are on a 2-16 SU & 4-14 ATS run in B12 play. LW NU took care of the Bears (outgained by 147 ypg). QB Griffin is avg 177 ypg (59%) with a 9-0 ratio to go along with 554 rush yds (4.9) accounting for 66% of the entire Bear offense. Mizzou has a large off edge (#6-59) and has played the tougher sked (#33-49). BU is ranked #90 in our pass eff def allowing 234 ypg (63%) with an 11-7 ratio. The Tigers have gone 6-0 SU & ATS as a favorite outside of Columbia with the avg cover by 14 ppg. With the Daniel Heisman talk taking a back seat and a National Title shot out of the picture, MO still controls its own destiny for the B12 North Title. MO now takes on a BU squad that will extend its bowl drought to 14 yrs. HC Briles is moving the Baylor program in the right direction but Missouri will be irked at being the Bears’ HC opponent.

   MISSISSIPPI 24 Auburn 14 - Ole Miss has lost 7 in a row SU at home in this series and the visitor is 9-3 ATS. Tuberville is 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS vs his old team. LY Auburn had a 420-193 yd edge but only led 10-3 in the 4Q when Ole Miss was int’d in the EZ (17-3, -18). In Oxford in ‘06, Auburn had a 428-258 yd edge but only won 23-27 (-18’). Since firing OC Franklin, QB Burns has started the L/2 gms (both losses) and has avg 115 ypg pass plus 60 ypg rush (2 rush TD). RB’s Tate (538, 4.3) and Lester (230, 3. have been banged up lately. The Rebels are off an emotional win at Ark, but now they return to a friendly crowd. QB Snead is avg 209 ypg (54%) with a 12-11 ratio. UM is avg 162 ypg rush (4.4) and Aub has all’d 230 ypg rush (5. in the L/2. Aub is 6-2 ATS as an AD but is now on an 0-7 ATS run overall and UM is 3-10 ATS as a HF. Ole Miss legitimately could be 6-1 or 7-0 but is 4-4 with an excellent shot at a bowl bid while Aub may have the same record as UM, but seems to be packing it in for year after a sad 2H vs WV in which the offense produced just 35 yds and 0 pts. We side with the Rebels who have momentum and a much stronger offense (#31-89).

   WYOMING 27 San Diego St 20 - The HT has won 5 in a row SU (5-1-1 and 10-4-1 ATS) with 2 outright upsets & the SU winner is 18-1 ATS. LY WY was up 21-0 in the 2Q but SDSt scored w/1:06 left & got a 27-24 upset. WY moved to 0-7 ATS TY and was outgained 444-221 in their 54-7 loss to TCU. WY was down 31-7 when QB Sween took a cheap shot and is ? here (CS). The life went out of WY after he left as Crum fmbl’d on his 2nd series (only TO) and Stutzriem finished the gm. WY did finish with 113 yds rush (-36 yd in sk) vs a TCU tm that is ranked #1 in the NCAA in rush D. Moore led with 114 & is #2 in the MWC w/802 (5.1) incl 4 of the tm’s 5 rush TD. The QB carousel is last in the NCAA in pass eff avg 98 ypg (51%) with a 3-15 ratio. After being blown out the prev 3, SDSt went TD-for-TD vs Colo St LW before CSU went ahead w/:04 left in a 38-34 win. Lindley was back at 100% and, minus the SJSt gm (SDSt altered off), he avg 236 ypg (57%) with a 10-6 ratio. SDSt’s top rec (V. Brown) has almost 3x’s the rec’s of WY’s top rec on the yr! This is SDSt’s only gm on art turf, they’re traveling to the cold in a battle for the basement so look for WY to get its first ATS win of the yr.

   W MICHIGAN 41 E Michigan 20 - LY EM held the Broncos to just 199 yds forcing 6 TO’s & the 2 pts were the fewest all’d to WM S/’30.These 2 are separated by 102 miles on I-94. WM is 13-3 SU vs EM but last time here trailed 15-3 in the 4Q and after EM’s QB was injured they rallied for an 18-15 win (-15’). The Broncos have the offensive (#42-94) and D edges (#74-110). While WM is still in the hunt for the MAC West Title, EM is 1 of just 2 MAC tms that are eliminated from their div race. While EM is guaranteed a losing season, they do still have a chance to repeat as the Mich MAC Champ (EM, CM & WM). EM is off a 38-16 loss to Ball St (+25) and while they were only outgained 408-376 much of that came in the 2H after they were down 24-0. The Broncos are off a bye after losing to rival C Mich 38-28 as a 1’ AF despite having a 28-22 FD edge and only being outgained 524-520. WM QB Hiller is avg 315 ypg (69%) with a 25-5 ratio. RB West leads with 686 (5.2) and should have a good day vs an EM D that is all’g 217 ypg and 5.6 ypc. E Mich has covered 9 str as a conf DD dog with 3 outright wins.

   Tulsa 44 ARKANSAS 41 - Tulsa’s OC, Gus Malzahn, was the OC at Ark in 2006 and did not leave on good terms. Tulsa is playing on a short week (played UCF Sun night after press time) and is 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS on the road vs BCS conf schools, but Ark is off 4 SEC games with another on deck. Tulsa needs a win over a BCS opp to earn some credibility after playing a very weak sked (#120) up to this point. Tulsa’s explosive off is avg 56.6 ppg, but they did struggle their last AG vs SMU and could have lost that game if not for a dropped TD by the Mustangs late 4Q. QB David Johnson is avg 342 ypg (69%) with a 31-8 ratio and leads the nation in pass eff. WR Marion has 28 rec (27.0). Tulsa also has the #7 rush attack in NCAA (267 ypg, 6.1) led by RB Adams with 633 yds (5.9). Ark is off a 23-21 home loss vs previous HC Nutt and Ole Miss in which they actually outgained the Rebels 386-369. QB Dick is avg 223 ypg (55%) with an 8-10 ratio. Leading rusher Smith played LW after suffering a concussion vs Aub and rushed for 129 yds (6. and now has 920 (5.6). Ark is 10-3 in HC gms, has beaten TU 16 straight (9-7 ATS) and needs a win to have any shot at a bowl, so expect the Hogs to keep it close and maybe even burst Tulsa’s BCS bubble.

   Fresno St 27 LOUISIANA TECH 23 - Fresno leads the series 7-2 SU but is 2-5-1 ATS incl an 0-4 skid. FSU is in an 0-6 ATS slump, but its WAC hopes are still alive thanks to K Goessling’s school-record 58 yd FG as time expired to lift Fresno to a 30-28 comeback win over USU LW. LT is 2-1 SU/ATS vs Fresno in Ruston. Last time here (‘06), FSU (-12’) got a 33 yd TD run with :53 left to pull out a 34-27 win. Unlike the previous 3 gms where these two avg 59 ppg, LY was a def struggle. LT led 6-0 at HT but lost 17-6 (+12) as FSU pressured the QB all night long en route to 7 sks (6 in 2H). LT needed an off spark & the #1 QB job was turned over to Jenkins 2 wks ago after Bennett struggled to complete just 39% of his passes. While Jenkins’ comp % is better (49%), he’s avg just 58 ypg. LW, LT began 5 drives in Army territory but only scored twice & had just 9 FD’s & 152 yds for the gm in a 14-7 loss. FSU has nearly a 50-50 run/pass balance to its offense (216 ypg rush, 213 ypg pass) & has the edge here (#36-108). QB Brandstater is avg 213 ypg (63%) with an 11-5 ratio & FSU’s run game (#16 in the NCAA) is led by Mathews with 585 yds (5.6) & 6 TD’s.

   Hawaii 27 UTAH ST 20 - UH is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS having outscored USU by 32 ppg. LY UH turned a close 17-13 game in the 2Q into a 52-37 win (-39’). The Aggies’ 37 pts were the most scored by USU on the road S/‘02. Last time here (‘06), UH rolled 63-10 (-20’) outgaining USU 572-362 in 40˚ temps. USU is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Fresno LW after the Aggies scored a TD with :38 left to go up 28-27, only to fall on a 58 yd FG as time expired. QB Borel is avg 141 ypg (54%) with a 9-6 ratio & also leads the team with 424 yds rushing, while WR Nelson has 28 rec (12.5). UH has the edge on off (#98-114) & def (#73-98). QB Funaki is avg 134 ypg (56%) with a 6-12 ratio but it was Alexander who came off the bench LW going 17-22 for 205 yds & connecting on a gm winning TD pass with :20 left to lead the Warriors over Nevada. Whoever lines up under center for the Warriors TW should be able to iron out some kinks going up against an Aggie D rated #106 in the NCAA allowing 439 ypg.

   SOUTH CAROLINA 23 Tennessee 9 - LY SC got off to a slow start (down 21-0) but dominated the 2H. They blew numerous opp’s to win and despite a 501-317 yd edge, lost in OT on the road 27-24 (+3). LY SC WR McKinley had a career day vs Vols with 14 rec for 151 yds & 1 TD and he needs just 45 yds to become SC’s all-time rec leader. The visitor is 10-0-1 ATS in the series. Fulmer is 14-1 SU vs SCar and on a 4-3 SU run vs Spurrier (5-9 overall). UT’s running gm has been stuffed (avg only 78 ypg L6) which has put more pressure on new QB Stephens (136 ypg, but 0 TO’s in 5 sts). SC is fresh off a bye while UT is off another crushing defeat to rival Bama and Fulmer is once again on the hotseat with fans calling for his ousting. UT has covered twice as an AD but was lucky to cover vs UGA as they were outFD’d 29-10 and outgained 458-209. SC has a QB controversy with Smelley (182 ypg, 60%) and Garcia (129 ypg, 61%) and both could play. This is a battle of top 10 defenses and inconsistent offenses, but SC has the important home edge with 2 young QB’s battling to keep their teams’ post season hopes alive.

   USC 48 Washington 6 - The Trojans enter this gm off a crucial P10 win vs AZ and another big game vs Cal on deck. While their off has avg 457 ypg in ‘08, the def has been the story as they have our #1 ranking allowing just 216 ypg TY (8.1 ppg) incl a 188 yd performance vs a highly-potent Wildcat squad (avg 412 ypg entering LW). USC has covered 3 of 4 at the Coliseum vs the Huskies by a 25 pt avg but did struggle in Seattle LY winning by 3 despite outgaining UW by a 460-190 clip. Not much has gone well for a young Husky squad as they remain 1 of 2 tms in IA that have yet to win a gm (N Texas) after LW’shm loss to ND where they did not cross midfield until 6:00 remained in the 4Q. UW HC Willingham has had mild success vs USC winning on 4 occasions during his coaching tenure (Stan & ND) but this will be a tall order especially with a def (#103) surrendering 480 ypg on the ssn. USC has won & covered their L/6 HC gms by a 29 ppg margin & while this gm looks to mirror the spread border of the USC/Stanford classic LY, it would be hard to believe that Carroll & Co would make the same mistake twice.

   CALIFORNIA 33 Oregon 27 - A crucial gm for both tms as far as bowl implications are concerned in a series where 4 of 5 have been decided by a TD or less. After a solid win LW in the desert vs ASU the Ducks go on the road for the 2nd consec gm where they have now dropped 3 straight ATS in that situation incl a defeat at the hands of USC earlier TY. With injuries to the QB position, the run gm has kept the Ducks alive as they have rushed for 279 ypg. LY trailing by 7 with the ball at the Cal5, UO WR Colvin took a pass to the half yd line where he fumbled into the EZ for a TB allowing Cal to hold on for their 1st victory in Eugene S/‘87 with UO having FOUR 4Q TO’s. After a disappointing loss a few wks ago to AZ, the Bears rebounded nicely LW against the Bruins as they int’d UCLA QB Craft 4 times incl 2 ret’d for TD’s. Cal has dropped 7 of their L/12 gms as a P10 HF, but we do expect the Bears to pull off another one against the rival Ducks.

   NAVY 27 Temple 17 - TU has all’d a combined 1,156 rush yds (6.6 ypc!) the L3Y vs Navy & the HT is 5-2 SU S/’91. Temple had a few extra days to prep for Navy’s triple option after playing Ohio on Tuesday, and has a bye next week. Despite no pass att’s Navy is off a blowout win over SMU that was led by 3rd string QB Dobbs who rushed for 224 yds & 4 TD’s in his first extensive action after 2nd string QB Bryant suffered a shoulder inj. Navy’s starting QB Kaheaku-Enhada has missed most of the season with a torn hamstring and will be ? for this one. TU QB DiMichele ret’d LW from inj showing some rust but led two 4Q drives to pull out a 14-10 win over Ohio. TU had only 46 yds after 3Q’s and finished with just 143 ttl yds. Navy has a large edge on off (#58-119) but TU has a large edge on D (#40-92) & ST’s (27-72). TU is all’g 142 rush ypg (3.5) and all’d 210 rush (3.6) to Army’s option in the opener TY. A Navy win clinches their 6th str bowl trip (school record).

   Kansas St 33 KANSAS 30 - 106th edition of the “Sunflower Showdown” as these tms have played every yr S/1902 (w/exception of 1910). The last time KU won 3 straight in this series was from 1988-’90 and the Jayhawks are just 3-11 SU/ATS. LY KU (+3’) beat #24 KSU 30-24 (1st W vs ranked S/‘03) & became ranked (#20) for the 1st time S/’96. In ‘06 here 6 KSU TO’s led to 30 KU pts in a 39-20 win (-2’). Mangino’s 1st IA coaching assignment was at KSU from ‘91-‘98. TT lit up the KU secondary LW (418 yds, 79%, 6-0) as they waxed the Jayhawks (outgained by 241 yds). QB Reesing is avg 310 ypg (69%) with a 19-8 ratio (3 int LW all in 2H). KSU lost to OU LW and has all’d 39 ppg & 513 ypg in B12 play. QB Freeman is avg 278 ypg (61%) with a 15-5 ratio. KSU is ranked #77 in our pass eff def allowing 241 ypg (59%) with a horrible 17-4 ratio while KU comes in at #26 (271 ypg, 59%, 16-9). KU does have the def edge (#66-83), but KSU has a huge ST (#2-67) advantage. This is a must-win for both as KSU needs 2 wins for bowl elig and has MO on deck while KU has trips to Lincoln and Columbia sandwiched between a HG vs #1 Texas.

   Michigan 23 PURDUE 20 - UM is 19-3 SU in the series & has held Purdue to 13 ppg. Mich has split their L/4 gms in W Lafayette with the losses by a combined 7 pts but has won 5 in a row SU in the series. LY Mich (only -5) dominated leading 48-7 before Purdue got 2 garbage TD’s. Both teams come in at 2-6 & must win out to go to bowling. UM is off their 1st home loss to their instate rival S/’90 as they were outFD’d 22-13 & outgained 473-252 and the Spartans missed 3 FG’s. UM’s struggling spread has more TO’s (24) than TD’s (17) TY. Wolves D has faltered all’g 37 ppg vs BCS conf foes & 460 ypg vs B10 teams TY. PU lost their 18th straight to a ranked tm, 17-6 to Minny as QB Painter (shoulder) was KO’d in the 2Q & the Boilers passed for a Tiller era low 109 yds. Tiller said he expects Painter to play TW & backup Siller (10-17 for 73 yds, 1 int, 4 sk vs Minny) was practicing at RB 2 weeks ago. Boilers have scored 3 off TD’s (all vs NW) in conf play TY. UM wins this postseason elimination game.

   Clemson 24 BOSTON COLLEGE 23 - LY BC upset #15 Clemson 20-17 in Death Valley with a 43 yd TD pass w/1:43 left stealing the ACC Atl Div crown. BC is 3-0 SU/ATS in the series with 2 OT wins. CU is 7-4 ATS as an ACC AD. CU started the year ranked #9 with hopes of winning the ACC Title but now need to win 4 of 5 just to become bowl elig with an interim coach guiding the way. The running gm remains inconsistent as CU is avg just 92 rush ypg (3.5) vs IA teams. QB Harper’s (122 ypg, 61%) shldr surg was successful and he is expected to return here, but it is ? if he or QB Korn will start. LW #23 BC was upset 45-24 by NC making the Tar Heels bowl elig for the 1st time in 4 yrs. QB Crane is avg 187 ypg (58%) with a 7-12 ratio including 3 int LW (1 ret for TD, 2 directly resulted in TD’s). True Fr RB Harris (PS#159) has rushed for 398 yds (6.2). Clemson has a history of winning games they’re not suppose to especially when everyone has given up on them.

   San Jose St 30 IDAHO 13 - SJSt is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in WAC contests vs UI & these two have avg just 38 ppg in the series. UI is coming off a 20-14 home win over NMSt LW, prompting HC Akey to exclaim, “That’s about a 750,000-ton gorilla that just got ripped off our backs today.” UI K Amancio hit a pair of 50+ yd FG’s (52 & 51) to break a 14-14 tie, helping the Vandals end a 23 gm losing streak vs IA foes & stopped an 0-9 ATS drought at home. UI is still in the midst of a current 3-14 ATS slump. QB Enderle is avg 172 ypg (53%) with a 15-11 ratio & he looks often for HB Williams who has 49 rec (13.0). SJSt QB Reed is avg 159 ypg (68%) with a 7-6 ratio but his production has fallen off in recent wks. WR Richmond has 46 rec (9.6). SJSt has a large edge on D (#31-118) as UI is #117 in the NCAA in ttl D (487 ypg) & scoring D (43 ppg) while the Spartans (#16 D in NCAA) have 27 sks (#4 in the NCAA). The Ihenacho brothers have been superb as Carl has 7 sks & Duke has 5 int. SJSt is 10-1 SU & ATS as an AF S/’98 & is currently on an 8-2 ATS run.

   Byu 41 COLORADO ST 20 - Last time here we used BYU as a 4H Newsletter & LPS and CSU has lost 7 of 10 SU vs the Cougs. The winner has won every gm by DD in MWC action (avg win by 22). BYU is 11-8 as a DD fav (1-3 TY) and is 11-2 SU in Ft Collins (avg win by 26). LY BYU led 35-9 when CSU got a 31 yd IR TD w/4:07 left for the backdoor (+21) and BYU ended the gm at the CSU17. BYU WR Collie tallied his 6th str 100 yd rec gm in what turned out to be a shootout vs UNLV. After BYU got a 6 yd TD pass with 1:46 left (2pt), LV’s Hail Mary was int’d in the EZ. Cougs were outFD’d 25-22 and outgained 463-454 but delivered an easy Winner on the Over as our Coll Ttls GOY, 42-35. QB Hall cont’s to pace the MWC avg 296 ypg (69%) with a 24-6 ratio. Collie leads the MWC with 60 rec (15.0), while TE Pitta has 50 (12.9). LW CSU QB Farris threw for a ssn best (vs IA) 296 yd (74%) with 3 TD incl the go-ahead 9 ydr w/:04 left. It was ruled inc but Fairchild chall and CSU left with a 38-34 road win (507-392 yd edge). Farris is avg 213 ypg (65%) with a 9-7 ratio. His top rec is Greer with 40 (17.9) and RB Johnson has 746 yds (4.6). CSU is 8-19 ATS in Nov/Dec gms & the Cougs are another week away from having their bubble burst, so look for them to get back to their blowout ways here.

   STANFORD 41 Washington St 6 - Both teams return to action off their 1st bye wks of the ssn. Stanford is off a last second 1 pt loss to UCLA knowing that it may have cost them a shot at bowl eligibility (Oregon, USC & Cal on deck). They are on a 12-4 ATS run vs the Cougs but have not been a DD fav S/’04 (covered 5 straight in that role). WSU has been the biggest embarrassment in IA as they have allowed 63+ pts in 4 of 5 conf gms incl a 69-0 (1st time shutout in 280 gms) hm loss 2W ago to USC in the Palouse where they failed to get past their own 45 yd line. The Cougs have been outgained (490-200) & outscored (54-9) vs IA opp’s as inj & poor recruiting classes have caused this downward spiral. They have had some success the L2Y vs the Cardinal incl a 561 yd performance in Pullman LY (4H LPS Winner). The visitor is 6-2 ATS with 3 upsets. While the Cougs should keep the Cardinal under the 63 ppg plateau (SU has failed to score over 36 pts in 37 straight), Stanford is rolling up 192 ypg (5.0) on the ground causing a huge line of scrimmage mismatch against a Cougar rush D giving up 6.7 ypc on the ssn!!

   Boise St 34 NEW MEXICO ST 31 - Boise’s BCS hopes are alive & well again TY. BSU leads this series 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS winning by 24 ppg (47-23 avg) but its wins in the series have been by 42 ppg at home but only 5 ppg in Las Cruces. The HF difference in this series has aided the host to cover by 22 ppg going 3-0 ATS since these two became WAC foes in ‘05. NMSt QB Holbrook is avg 295 ypg (67%) with a 16-10 ratio & is #10 in the NCAA in passing ypg. He has a pair of WR’s with over 45 rec each with Williams hauling in 54 (14.1) while Harris has caught 46 (9.9). RB Colston has given the Aggies an option on the ground with 353 yds (4.. BSU is 5-1-1 ATS in its 2nd consec AG & the Broncos have the edges on off (#37-68), def (#27-105) & ST (#25-90). QB Moore has been steady avg 262 ypg (71%) with a 15-4 ratio & while RB Johnson isn’t producing numbers on par to recent yrs, he still has 429 yds (4.6) and recorded his school-record 51st TD LW. BSU has the NCAA’s #4 scoring D at 11.3 ppg & has held 5 of its 7 opp TY to 7 pts or less! LW Boise’s D didn’t allow SJSt to record a FD until its last possession of the 1H

   OTHER COLLEGE GAMES CONT

   MISSISSIPPI ST 17 Kentucky 13 - LY UK was without their top 2 RB’s, top WR, had 6 TO’s, was off 3 straight ranked teams and lost outright at home 31-14 (-14). Last time here they pulled out a 34-31 road win (-1). MSU is 4-1 ATS prior to a bye but 0-6 ATS as a HF. MSU QB Lee has started the L/4 (tm 2-2) and is avg 123 pass ypg (62%) with a 2-3 ratio. RB Dixon has 599 rush (4.3). UK is very banged up with 5 defensive starters missing most of the week prior to their blowout loss to Florida plus they lost top RB Locke prior to LW & top WR Lyons 2 wks ago. UK has allowed 202 rush ypg (4.6) vs SEC tms TY. UK QB Hartline is avg 162 ypg (54%) with an 8-7 ratio and split time with WR/QB Cobb LW (9 of 18 for 78 yds, 52 rush vs UF). UK has the edges on off (#84-103), def (#35-52) and ST’s (#24-88). UK needs 1 more win to be bowl elig and this might be their best chance left, but once again the Cats are forced to face MSU with an inj depleted team.

   Florida St 21 GEORGIA TECH 17- Florida St has now won 12 in a row SU in the series but they have not met S/’03 (-23’ H, 14-13) and the last 5 have been decided by 6 ppg. LW FSU came back from a 1H deficit to defeat VT and claim a 1st-place tie with MD in the Atl Div and K Gano set a FSU record with his 13th consecutive FG. RB Smith, who was inj’d LW (elbow - CS), has 540 rush yds (5.0). QB Ponder is avg 200 ttl ypg. WR Easterling has 20 rec (11.6) and Carr has 19 (16.4!). FSU has the edge on both sides of the ball (off #30-60, D #13-36). QB Nesbitt is avg 140 ttl ypg. RB Dwyer (#1 ACC ttl rush yds) has 754 (5.4). While GT runs the triple option, WR Thomas has 27 rec (18.6!). GT ranks #117 in the NCAA with 14 fmbls. This should be a good defensive battle but GT now has to figure out how to bounce back from their upset loss (24-17 vs UVA) after their best start S/’90 while FSU is off to a 6-1 start.

   LSU 41 Tulane 13 - These schools are just 75 miles apart and LSU has won 16 in a row. LY LSU was favored by 41 at the Superdome but had a huge game against Florida on deck and only led 10-9 at HT with 127 yds before outscoring TU 24-0 in the 2H. TY LSU is in a similar situation with a Georgia/Alabama sandwich and is just 5-16 ATS in Nov HG’s. LSU is off a 52-38 loss to GA in which the rFr QB Lee threw 3 int (2 ret’d for TD’s). Tulane is off a 42-17 home loss to Rice in which nothing went right. RB Anderson only rushed for 12 yds on 4 carries and was inj in the 1Q and did not return (CS). Anderson is still #8 in NCAA avg 123 ypg (4.97). QB Moore has been dealing with a nagging thumb inj and was replaced by rFr Joe Kemp (PS#148) in the 2H. Moore is avg 211 ypg (59%) with a 7-8 ratio and will again be without his top deep threat Jeremy Williams (16.2, 5 TD), who remains out with a broken hand. LSU has large edges on off (#12-101), D (#28-82) and ST (#15-120) and has played the tougher sked (#31-90), but the Green Wave did cover on the road vs Bama (20-6, +30) earlier TY. LSU is 7-0 (5-1-1 ATS) off a SU loss under Miles and has not lost 2 in a row S/‘02. LSU knows this is a letdown gm but can’t avoid looking ahead to a must win gm vs Ala.

   Tcu 24 UNLV 20 - TCU is 3-8-1 ATS in Nov AG’s and LV is 6-12 ATS in Nov HG’s. LV dropped its 3rd heartbreaker LW after their Hail Mary was int. They went TD for TD with BYU and actually finished with 25-22 FD and 463-454 yd edges delivering an easy win on the Over as our Coll Ttls GOY, 42-35. LV cont’d its RZ domination and is still the only tm that’s a perfect 100% I/20. QB Clayton (231 ypg, 60%, 17-3 ratio) had a better day than BYU’s Hall hitting 26-40 for 321 yd w/a 1-1 ratio. His top targets are Wolfe (59, 12.1, 4 TD), Flair (39, 11.8, 4) and true Fr Payne (27, 15.4, 7). TCU is off a dominating 54-7 win over WY, outgaining the Pokes 444-221. WR Young had a TCU rec’d (& MWC best TY) 226 rec yd with 3 TD. QB Dalton (174 ypg, 60%, 6-2 ratio) had a ssn high 334 yd (73%) with a 4-0 ratio. UNLV is now 5-0 vs winning & BCS teams and 0-3 vs non-BCS teams .500 & under. TCU has their HUGE gm vs Utah on deck, on a Thurs Nite - and the last time in that spot they barely got by Colo St. The last time LV took on a ranked foe that was looking ahead (Ariz St), they pulled the outright upset. TCU is 2-7-1 as a conf AF, LV is 9-2 as a conf HD and look for the Rebs to keep this closer than expected.

   SOUTHERN MISS 31 Uab 28 - UAB is 0-8 SU (3-4-1 ATS) vs the Golden Eagles but 6 of the 8 have been decided by 7 or less (25-16 avg final). The visitor is 5-2-1 ATS. UAB was dominated at home LY, 37-7 (+10’), but did cover in their last trip here (lost 25-20, +14’). The Blazers are off a bye and have another on deck. QB Webb is a one man show, leading UAB in both passing and rushing, is avg 216 ypg (57%) with an 8-11 ratio and has 723 (5.3) rush yds with 7 TD’s. WR Forrest has 419 ttl yds (12.7). UAB is all’g 488 ypg and 36 ppg in conf play. SMiss is off a 36-30 loss to a Memphis team that was down to their 3rd & 4th string QB’s. RB Fletcher is #10 in NCAA avg 121 ypg. RFr QB Davis is avg 259 ypg (59%) with a 15-7 ratio (6-1 L/2 wks). True Fr WR Brown leads tm with 747 yds (16.2) and 9 TD’s and has caught all 6 of Davis’ TD passes the L/2W. The Eagles’ D is all’g 478 ypg and 38.8 ppg in conf and only has 7 sks in CUSA play (4 gms), plus struggled 2 wks ago vs an athletic QB (Rice’s Clement all’d 45 pts). SMiss is on an 0-5 SU/ATS run so look for a fresh, focused UAB squad to provide a tough HC challenge for the Golden Eagles.

   UTEP 41 Rice 37 - LY UTEP blew a 20 pt, 4Q lead all’g four 4Q Owl TD’s in the 56-48 loss. Rice has won 5 straight ATS (avg cover almost 14 pts) vs the Miners and are 8-3 ATS on the CUSA road and pulled the outright upset here in ‘06 (+8’). Rice is off a 42-17 win at Tulane where they ran for a ssn high 230 yds. RB Ugokwe ran for 111 (6.2) and now has 400 yds (4.9). QB Clement is the leading rusher with 402 (4.1) and is avg 295 ypg (66%) through the air with a 24-6 ratio. WR Dillard has 856 yds (15.0) and 14 TD’s. UTEP all’d 791 yds and 77 pts to Tulsa in their last gm (another up tempo, spread offense) and is all’g 38 ppg and 474 ypg overall. QB Vittatoe is avg 233 ypg (57%) with a 16-4 ratio. UTEP is 3-4 and needs a win to

   have any shot at a bowl, with 3 of their L/4 away. Rice needs 1 win to be bowl eligible, which would only be their 3rd bowl S/’61. The Miners are rested and the 6th win for bowl eligibility is usually the hardest to come by, so we like UTEP’s chances at home in the Sun Bowl.

   Utah 27 NEW MEXICO 13 - Last trip here Utah blew a 24-3 1H lead & NM scored the winning TD with 2:09 left. NM is 13-7 ATS in home finales but is playing for their 10th straight week while Utah is fresh off a bye (5-0 SU & ATS), but does have TCU in just 5 days. The favorite has gone 8-3 ATS & Utah is 25-7 SU in Nov (12-6 ATS Nov AG’s). NM has pulled 4 outright upsets in the L6Y & is 15-7-1 ATS in Nov. NM outgained AF LW (all’d just 228 yds) & somehow lost in a misleading final (4 TO’s, huge 14 swing - see pg 1). QB Gruner has struggled in the pass gm (avg 90 ypg, 52%, 3-5 ratio) but does have 225 yds rush (5.5). Long has also been inserting walk-on Smith (116 ttl yds) more the L2W. RB Ferguson has 865 yds (5.0), but if you take out NM’s 565 yd effort vs SDSt, they are avg just 277 ypg, but the defense has held 3 of 4 opp’s to 228 or less. 8-0 Utah is led by QB Johnson who is avg 203 ypg (66%) with a 13-7 ratio. The Utes are only allowing 264 ypg (+144) & have outscored MWC foes by 24 ppg. Both defenses (Utah #33 NM#43) are stout, but the Utes have the off edge (#25-92). Even with a huge Thur Night gm looming Utah needs to take care of things here if they want a shot at crashing the BCS party and NM is in danger of not being bowl eligible for the 1st time since 2000.

   OREGON ST 33 Arizona St 16 - With climate & turf differences it’s no surprise that the HT is on an 18-2-1 ATS run in this series. Dennis Erickson was the HC at OSU from ‘99-’02 & now leads an ASU squad into Corvallis searching for their 1st victory S/wk 2 as the Sun Devils have now lost 5 straight (0-4-1 ATS) for the 1st time S/’01 after falling apart against the Ducks LW. Rallying back from an early 19 pt deficit LY, QB Carpenter threw for 361 yds & 4 TD’s as ASU covered (-11) at home 44-32. However, in 2006 OSU rolled to a 44-10 (-2) victory as Carpenter struggled hitting just 9 of 27 passes in Reser Stadium. The Beavers return from bye here where HC Riley is 11-2 SU with an extra wk of prep in his tenure at OSU. Led by outstanding true Fr RB Quizz Rodgers (812 rush yds leads P10), the Beavers have outgained their opponents at hm by a 459-219 margin. With ASU travelling for a 2nd consec gm (0-9-1 ATS) & a 4th RG in their L/5 contests, we expect the favorite to cover their 6th straight in the series.

   WKU 41 North Texas 31 - Following the emotional NT 27-26 win LY at home, players from both tms met at midfield & a scuffle ensued. WKU did miss the game winning 38 yd FG w/1:00 left LY. WKU is off bye (11-4 SU) and in their last gm lost 24-20 to FAU while being outgained 399-317 and outFD’d 22-16. WKU is not only favored for the 1st time but is a DD favorite. WKU QB Wolke is avg 101 ypg (53%) with a 5-4 ratio. NT comes into this gm 0-8 (2-6 ATS) and is 1 of 2 tms still looking for their first win. They are off a 45-17 loss to Troy as they were outgained 547-338 and also had 4 turnovers. QB Vizza is avg 249 ypg (62%) with a 9-10 ratio. WR Fitzgerald became the all-time reception leader LW and has 74 rec (10.4). This gm matches up the NCAA’s 2 worst defenses but NT has played the tougher schedule (#36-107) and this could be their best shot at avoiding a winless ssn.

   ALABAMA 34 Arkansas St 17 - The calendar now says Nov 1 and the teams on top of the BCS standings start to look at every scenario. This spells trouble for a Bama tm that has been outscored 67-29 in 2H in their L/4 gms and is 3-18 ATS as a HF incl 1-7 under Saban. While ASU is just 2-5 SU off a bye under Roberts, it is a good situation as they are fresh and the Tide is in a 4 game SEC sandwich incl Tenn LW and LSU on deck. Alabama did have a 409-282 yd edge vs ULM LY in this spot but was upset (-24’) so they will put some time into this. They come in 8-0 (5-3 ATS) and are off a 29-9 win over Tenn in which they outgained the Vols 366-173 (36 rush) and outFD’d them 23-10. QB Wilson is avg 158 ypg (62%) with an 8-3 ratio and RB Coffee has 838 yds (6.6). ASU is 3-0 ATS vs ranked teams and in their last gm lost their 1st SBC gm TY to ULL 28-23 when ULL scored with :42 left in gm. Three of their last 4 gms are on the road. ASU QB Leonard is avg 211 ypg (53%) with an 11-3 ratio and has already guided the RedWolves to a win at Texas A&M to start this year. If this gm is played on paper Bama obviously wins big, but schedule, situation and a pesky offense keeps ASU within the number.

   LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 23 Fiu 16 - Louisiana-Lft is 5-0 all-time vs FIU with an avg win of 17 ppg (4-0 ATS). Both tms are 6-1 ATS and off byes. ULL (3-0 SU/ATS vs SBC) scored 14 pts in the last 5:00 to beat ASU 28-23 getting their last TD with :42 left in gm. ULL comes into this gm ranked #1 in the nation avg 312 rush ypg but was held to 189 yds by ASU. ULL QB Brown, in his first start (Desormeaux inj’d) vs ASU, had 253 yds and was 18 of 28 with 2-0 ratio. RB Fenroy has 970 ttl yds (7.5) and had his 21st 100 yd gm vs ASU. FIU (3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU vs SBC) had a 3 gm SU win streak come to an end with a 33-23 loss to Troy in their last gm. FIU QB McCall is avg 142 ypg (52%) with an 8-7 ratio. WR Hilton has 17 rec (28.4). While ULL has a huge offensive edge (#26-116), FIU has the better defense (#72-113) and has played the tougher schedule (#70-96). FIU is also outscoring their SBC opponents on avg 32-21 TY.

   ULM 24 Troy 23 - Troy is 7-2-1 vs ULM with the 2 losses & tie coming on the road. The HT has won 4 in a row SU (2-2 ATS) with the only recent game in Monroe being won by ULM 27-3 (+1’). ULM is off 29-28 loss to FAU on a TD w/:20 remaining. They were outgained 418-371 and were up 21-0 before TO’s let FAU back in the gm. ULM QB Lancaster is avg 191 ypg (60%) with a 12-3 ratio. They finish the ssn with a 3 gm road trip while Troy has 3 of their L/4 at home (makeup gm at LSU 11/15). SBC co-leader Troy is off a 44-17 win over NT outgaining them 547-338. QB Brown threw for school rec 40 comps and finished 40-50 for 391 yds and 2-0 ratio (35-42 for 334 yd in 1H). WR Jernigan has 48 rec (12.0) and left in 2Q vs NT with knee inj (CS). ULM Coach Weatherbie gets his team to peak late as they have gone 9-0 ATS the L/5 gms of the ssn the L2Y.

   Sunday, November 2nd - East Carolina at UCF - LY EC trailed 28-17 at the half but scored 28 3Q pts (UCF 5 3Q TO’s) in their 52-38 (+3’) win. East Carolina is 6-1 all-time vs the Knights. EC is 9-4 ATS on the CUSA road but UCF is 8-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in Bright House Stadium. UCF has played in the CUSA Championship gm 2 of L/3 and needs a win to keep their conf title hopes alive. Can UCF get the job done at home, or does East Carolina establish themselves as the team to beat in CUSA East?

   Tuesday, November 4th - Miami, Oh at BUFFALO - This game will be televised on ESPN2, marking the 1st ever National TV gm from UB Stadium. Miami is 10-0 vs Buffalo outscoring the Bulls on average 37-12. The last game here was strange as it was postponed due to a blizzard until Sunday and played in front of a handful of people and UB had a 278-260 yd edge (+7’) and got a 32 yd FG with 1:06 left for the backdoor cover (38-31). LY on the road UB got a TD with 2:54 left for the backdoor 31-28 (+6’). Both are still in the MAC East Title race.

   Wednesday, November 5th - Northern Illinois at BALL ST - NIll is 7-2 SU vs Ball St and won here 40-28 in ‘06. LY Ball St was at full strength and bowl bound taking on an inj depleted NIll squad on the road (-8) but the Huskies got the backdoor cover with 1:31 left (27-21). TY both are in the MAC West Title hunt as Ball St is 4-0 in conf play while NI is 4-1 and both still have games vs MAC West leader C Mich.

   Toledo at AKRON - Toledo is 8-1 SU in the series covering the last 6 but has not traveled here since 1998 and the Rockets are just 3-12 SU on the road. Akron is off a bye and owns the only MAC East SU

   Jacksonville 24 CINCINNATI 6 - The Jaguars have dominated this old AFC Central match up going 9-1 SU & 7-1-2 ATS. The Jags have the #12 & #25 units (+1 TO’s) over the L4W vs CIN’s #31 & #23 units (-2 TO’s) with the Jags having a top 5 spec teams vs CIN’s bottom 5 unit. CIN is 0-3 SU & ATS at home TY being outgained 310-213 and losing by a 27-10 margin. JAX is 2-1 SU & ATS on the road TY with the loss coming in Wk 1 vs TEN with an inj devastated OL. Against 2 teams with similarly weak defenses (IND & DEN) JAX posted a 410-324 yd edge with a 24-19 score. After passing for 182 ypg (66%) with a 1-4 ratio in the first 3 Wks, Garrard has improved to 249 ypg (65%) with a 5-0 ratio. Fitzpatrick has only hit for 157 ypg (61%) with a 1-2 ratio the L3W & his 4.71 ypa is 33rd out of 34 qualifying QB’s. After LW’s upset home loss the Jags are 3-4 & swimming amongst the masses for a Wild Card spot. HOU showed LW what can happen if you don’t look past CIN & we’ll side with an angry team to do the same here.

   Tampa Bay 24 KANSAS CITY 10 - This will be the 1st time all season the Chiefs start the same QB 2 wks straight. Tyler Thigpen had a huge day LW vs the Jets with 280 yds passing (69%) with a 2-0 ratio. They were able to deliver our 6th straight Ugly Dog victory thanks to 3 Favre int which setup 14 pts for KC. KC may not get RB Johnson back here but outside of the DEN game he hasn’t been a factor TY (55 ypg 3.4). TB has the #17 & #2 units (+3 TO’s) vs KC’s #29 & #32 units (+5 TO’s) the L4W. TB has covered 6 straight before a bye. They take a huge step down here after facing a very desperate & talented veteran DAL team in front of a loud Texas Stadium crowd. TB had a 262-172 yd edge in the game but only scored 9 pts on 4 trips inside the DAL 25. TB has been criticized for only making 14 sacks TY but their 12 int ranks 2nd in the NFL. TB has an experienced QB in Garcia vs a KC defense with just 4 sacks (32nd) without the traditional Arrowhead home edge. We have played solid rushing teams against the Chiefs several times TY & TB has that component despite LW’s results.

   CLEVELAND 17 Baltimore 10 - This is the 3rd road game in a 4 week span & also marks the start of a 3 game road stretch here. BAL easily handled CLE in the 1st meeting TY 28-10 as a 3 pt HF but is just 1-5 ATS in the series. BAL converted 2 int into 14 pts inside :50 during the 3Q to go up 25-10. BAL dominated the 2H with 10-2 FD & 104-6 yd edges. CLE is 10-3 ATS as a HF. BAL is 5-11 ATS away in div play. BAL dominated another inconsistent offense LW as they had a 19-0 1H lead & had an 11-2 FD & 221-35 yd edge at the end of the 1H. Playing with a lead, Flacco wasn’t asked to do too much & BAL had a 192 (4.2) to 47 (2.5) rushing edge with a 12:40 TOP. The MNF Browns showed up LW vs the Jags & LW’s off field issues focused the team more & they only had 1 penalty. Anderson was mediocre but RB Lewis had 81 yds (4.1) & NT Rogers dominated (9 tkls 1 sack) LW. CLE has the advantage of being the 1st team to face Flacco the 2nd time around & now get to make up for the 2nd loss at home in front of the Dawg Pound.

   Arizona 37 ST LOUIS 28 - ARZ has won the L3 meetings SU & split LY ATS as ARZ moved to 6-3 ATS vs STL. LY ARZ beat STL 34-31 but failed to cover as a 3.5 pt AF. The yardage was essentially even but STL was the victim of some bad officiating which gave ARZ an extra play at the end of the 1H to score a go ahead TD. STL made a 2 pt conv at the end of the game to steal the backdoor cover. ARZ is 6-3-1ATS in div play. STL is 2-8 ATS hosting a div foe. STL hopes to get RB Jackson (quad inj) & NT Carriker back after missing LW. STL played well for the 3rd straight week under Haslett vs a quality foe & are +7 TO’s in that span. STL has been able to take advantage of a WAS team that looked past them, a reeling DAL team & a NE team on a short week with a beat up run game. They now face a fresh ARZ team that got back Boldin LW (9 rec 7.0) & after the RB’s were stumped for 20 yds (1.5) vs CAR they take on a STL defense allowing 152 ypg (4. rushing. ARZ’s D is very blitz heavy (19 sacks 6th) & now face a STL OL that has allowed 22 sacks (27th). While Haslett deserves to be applauded for the Rams turnaround they haven’t faced a team as explosive as the Cardinals & look for the road team to get the win in a higher scoring game.

   CHICAGO 21 Detroit 17 - The Bears thumped the Lions 34-7 as a 3.5 pt AF in the 1st meeting as Orton had a career day vs the Lions now #31 pass defense with 334 yds (71%) with a 2-0 ratio. CHI had 21-12 FD, 425-185 yd and 16:30 TOP edges & got their 1st look at Orlovsky who had 97 yds (57%) with an 0-1 ratio. CHI is 7-3 ATS hosting a div foe. DET is 5-14-1 ATS in Div play. While the Bears profess to be a rushing team they really are passing oriented thanks to Orton who has 227 ypg (62%) with a 10-4 ratio TY. This keeps teams from stacking the box & Forte leads the team with 105 ypg (4.2) from scrimmage. DET’s defense is worse than its #32 ranking as they can’t stop the run (163 ypg 4.7) or the pass 272 ypg (70%) with a 12-1 ratio!! The Bears get the SU win but DET has been very scrappy looking for its 1st win & stay close with the generous points.

   TENNESSEE 27 Green Bay 17 - TEN comes in off a huge MNF game vs IND & have B2B road games vs CHI & JAX on deck. If DE Vanden Bosch (groin) was deactivated LW they faced IND with just 2 DE’s. GB is 7-2 ATS as a dog after their bye & they have a road game vs MIN on deck. The bye was a boom to GB esp for QB Rodgers (shoulder), the DL which only had 2 healthy DT’s, WLB Hawk (groin) & they could get CB Harris (spleen) back here. TEN is 15-4 ATS hosting an NFC team but GB is 6-3 ATS vs the AFC. TEN is winning via old school smashmouth football & are 4-0 SU & ATS vs a non-div foe TY who aren’t used to how TEN plays. TEN has a 158 (4.6) to 81 (2.6) yd edge with 8 takeaways (+4 TO’s) & a 25-11 avg score. GB has only avg 88 ypg (3.0) on the road TY & has been outrushed 151 (4. to 89 (3.3) non-div foes (2-3 SU & ATS). TEN has been criticized for playing a soft schedule but GB is 0-3 SU & ATS TY vs a foe with a winning record. We’ll side with the more physical team playing old school football at home.

   Miami 31 DENVER 30 - DEN has been a very good team after a bye (15-4 ATS) but this is a very tough matchup here. DEN lost their best defensive player in CB Champ Bailey (groin) as well as LB Bailey (knee) & #2 QB Ramsey (elbow) in the blowout loss to NE. Fav’s that lost by 17 or more before the bye are 9-23 ATS when they return since 1990. DEN is 2-12 ATS as a HF while MIA is 18-9-1 ATS as a non-div AD. While the “Wildcat” has been slowed with RB Brown (34 carries, 3.0 L3W) having teams focus on him it’s opened the passing lanes. Pennington (314 yds 67%, 1-0) rediscovered Ginn (7 rec 25.0) & had a 9.9 ypa LW vs BUF. MIA’s offense has now topped 358 yds the L5W. MIA has put up 28 & 38 pts in their L2 road games & expect the offense to continue that success matched against DEN’s #30 defense. DEN OL is #2 in sacks allowed & has kept Cutlers jersey clean until NE became the 1st with multiple sacks. MIA has been blitzing more & LB Porter has been the beneficiary as he has exploded for 10.5 sacks TY. DEN offense has now avg’d just 15 ppg the L4W & while the bye may help some deficiencies they also have a road game in CLE in 4 days.

   Philadelphia 33 SEATTLE 16 - SEA beat PHI 28-24 as a 3 pt AD as PHI was without QB McNabb. PHI had a chance to win as Westbrook returned a punt 64 yds to put the ball on the SEA 14 with 2:00 left. SEA int’d #2 QB Feeley for the 4th time on 3rd Dn to end the threat. PHI is 7-3 ATS vs a non-div foe. SEA is 3-6 ATS as a non-div HD. PHI has a SNF HG vs NYG on deck while SEA has another long road game vs MIA up next & won’t have Hasselbeck. PHI has the #8 & #7 units vs SEA’s #31 & #27 units with a +11 TO edge to PHI here. SEA had a “get right” win vs SF LW but it was misleading as they faced a rookie interim HC in his 1st game. SEA was outFD’d 21-14 & outgained 388-261 on the day as SF held them to 39 yds rushing (1.4). SF blundered the game as they were inside the SEA 30 5 times but came away with 1 TD, 2 FG & 2 TO’s. SEA may have lost MLB Tatupu LW which is a huge blow in trying to contain Westbrook who had a career day with 167 yds rushing (7.6) vs the #23 rush def (SEA #22). While PHI does have to go cross country they are healthier & more talented. Look for McNabb to take advantage of a pass defense allowing 245 ypg passing (67%) with an 11-2 ratio & keep the momentum going.

   New England at INDIANAPOLIS - IND is off LW’s MNF game vs TEN & if they lost they are fighting the Jags for one of the 2 Wild Card spots. NE is off a hard fought win vs an overachieving Rams team without RB Jackson. NE could be without NT Wilfork (susp) here due to a cheap shot vs QB Cutler. Including playoffs IND is 5-1 ATS vs NE but the Patriots rested RB Jordan LW to have him available here vs a Colts defense allowing 154 ypg (4.4). Injuries have caught up to both perennial playoff teams & instead of deciding home field advantage this game could decide who makes the postseason

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 30 2008 2:32pm
8. 0 likes

   Pointwise

   COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

   1--MICHIGAN STATE over Wisconsin 38-17

   1--Oregon (+) over CALIFORNIA 33-30

   2--OREGON STATE over Arizona State 44-17

   3--TEXAS TECH (+) over Texas 47-45

   3--Florida over Georgia 37-20

   4--LOUISIANA TECH (+) over Fresno State 30-27

   5--USC over Washington 60-6

   5--STANFORD over Washington State 54-13

   MICHIGAN STATE 38 - Wisconsin 17 - (12:00) -- Yes, we know full well, that the

   Spartans dropped their last HG, 45-7, but 5 TO greased the skids. Back on

   track now, with another 194 RYs for Ringer LW (1,157 last 7). Badgers have

   been stung for 31, 38, 38, 34, 27, & 38 pts in their last 6 Big10 RGs. Romper.

   Oregon 33 - CALIFORNIA 30 - (3:30) -- Fifteen takeaways in Bears' 5 wins, with

   another 4 LW, turning tight game vs Ucla, into 41-20 win. RB Best a keeper,

   but QBing is a ? Ducks back on track, with 54-20 rout of ArizSt (537 yds), &

   now at 44 ppg in 19 of last 21 tilts. Healthy at QB, & remember LY's tuff loss.

   OREGON STATE 44 - Arizona State 17 - (10:15) -- Let's see. Five straight wins

   & covers (by 91 pts ATS) for the Beavers, compared to five straight losses for

   the Devils (-69 pts ATS). Only 64 RYpg in Suns' last 4 outings, & Carpenter

   just 10/6 for the season. Rodgers duet aids in extending home trend of series.

   TEXAS TECH 47 - Texas 45 - (8:00) -- Raiders entered LW's game with Kansas

   at 418 PYpg. That's right, an exact 418 PYs for Harrell (5 TDs, & 26/5 for the

   year) in that 63-21 annihilation. 'Horn QB McCoy at 21/4 & 82% for the year, &

   how about astounding 87% last 2 wks. Revenge call in this ultimate shootout.

   Florida 37 - Georgia 20 - (3:30 - CBS - @ Jacksonville) -- Had Gators on both

   RedSheet & Phones, but not high enuff in 63-5 rout of KY. Have a 152-33 pt

   edge since loss to OleMiss, & chalk now 10-2 ATS in Fla tilts. Moreno off 172,

   163 RY gms for 'Dawgs, but note GA allowing 500 yds LW. Color it revenge!

   LOUISIANA TECH 30 - Fresno State 27 - (2:30) -- Talk about living on borrowed

   time. FSt in off winning on 58-yd FG on final play, with 5 of last 6 decided by 3,

   1, 5, 3, 2 pts SU. No rushing "D", & on 0-6 ATS slide, despite 5-2 SU log. The

   host is 7-0 ATS in Tech games by 85½ pts, & LT can move it overland. Upset.

   SO CALIFORNIA 60 - Washington 6 - (3:30) -- Katie, bar the door! Catching the

   Trojans off narrow escape not the healthiest of propositions for Huskies, who

   have yet to win (0-7), & who allowed 252 RYs to NoDame's previously 109th

   ranked run "O". SC has a 154-20 pt edge since loss to OregSt. Over already!

   STANFORD 54 - Washington State 13 - (5:00) -- Time for Cardinal to take full

   advantage of the gift that is WashSt. Stanford: 229 RYpg last 5, with Gerhart

   at 779. And check 13 TOs in Cards' 4 losses. Coogs rested off worst loss in

   school history (69-0), & in possession of 54-9 ppg deficit in lined affairs this yr.

   Thursday

   CINCINNATI 26 - South Florida 23 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Sporadically impressive

   Bulls managed just 8 RYs at Louisville (5 sacks), & altho Grothe was 30-of-40,

   note 2 picks, & he had 4 LY vs these 'Cats. A 6-0 TO deficit for Cincy in loss to

   UConn, but still a solid run "D", while just 30 pts from a 27-3 ATS run. Host call.

   SATURDAY

   BOWLING GREEN 31 - Kent State 30 - (2:00) -- Flashes in off snapping 0-12

   ATS run, with 54-21 shocker at Miami. Checks 932 RYs for KSt last 4 games,

   & +31 pts ATS last 4. All BG's MAC games have been decided within a TD, &

   the visitor is 8-0 ATS in Falcon tilts TY, by 129½ pts. In off 233-76 RY deficit.

   Central Michigan 34 - INDIANA 24 - (12:00) -- Nice one to avoid. Indy snapped

   5-game slide LW, thanks mainly to 5 TOs by N'western. IU allowed 245 RYpg

   previous 4 outings, & can't run. LeFevour back for Chips: 24-of-31 (2/0) LW,

   but CM not at its best in this setup, with 44 ppg "D" in its 2 non-MAC roadsters.

   Air Force 38 - ARMY 17 - (12:00 - ESPNC) -- Resurgent Cadets keep motoring

   on: 280, 291, 341, 320, & 203 RYs last 5 games (Mooney: 645 yds last 4), &

   covering all 5 by 89 pts. But Falcs held 420 RY edge LY (Wise Points), & are

   at 974 RYs last 3 outings. Visitor is plus 105 pts ATS in Army's last 7 games.

   Louisville 34 - SYRACUSE 10 - (7:00) -- Definite corner turning for Cards, who

   allow just 75 RYpg, rank 17th in rushing "O", & in off holding SoFla to 8 RYs.

   Rested 'Cuse managed no FDs & 9 yds in 2nd half of loss to SoFla. They were

   decent in previous 14 quarters, but a 33-15 ppg deficit last 25 tilts. Revenger!

   VIRGINIA 23 - Miami-Fla 20 - (12:00) -- Four straight wins & covers for Cavs,

   who opened at 0-3, with a 128-20 pt deficit in first 3 lined tilts. Are 3-0 home of

   late, & by 72½ pts ATS. Check QB Verica at 29-of-39 vs GaTech. 'Canes in

   off outlasting Wake, but just 11 FDs & <300 yds. Can't run, but 19th best "D".

   CONNECTICUT 20 - West Virginia 17 - (12:00) -- Finally! After failing to top 17

   pts in previous 4 outings, Mounties turned 17-3 deficit, into 34-17 win vs Aub,

   with 207 RYs from Devine (sweet 12.2 ypr). And WV has owned the Huskies

   (Wise Points). But host is 12-2 ATS in UConn games, so worth a minor shot.

   ILLINOIS 25 - Iowa 20 - (12:30) -- Let's see. The rested Hawkeyes covered their

   last RG by 30 pts, while the Illini covered their last HG by 26 (both vs Indiana).

   Illini came from 538 ypg in previous 3 outings, to just 309 at Wisconsin, while

   Iowa RB Greene now at 1,154 yds (6.5 ypr - 217 last game). Near the spread.

   MINNESOTA 27 - Northwestern 17 - (12:00) -- A 5-0 TO deficit for 'Cats in loss

   to Indy, & now may have lost QB Bacher (leg). Have OhioSt up next, but run

   into avenging Gophers (Wise Points), whose turnaround has been splendid:

   from 1-11 LY, to 7-1 TY. Held all but Buckeyes under 139 RYs. Weber leads it.

   WAKE FOREST 17 - Duke 10 - (3:30) -- It continues. Just 10 ppg for Wake in

   last 5 tilts. Opened with 25 straight running plays in loss to Miami. One of the

   worst HF plays, & Imps remember last 2 years. Duke still can't run (74 RYpg

   last 5), despite win over Vandy, & averaging only 5 ppg away. But a puppy call.

   OKLAHOMA STATE 55 - Iowa State 10 - (3:30) -- Quick bounceback shot for

   'Boys, who nearly took Texas (217-112 RY edge), & who have TexTech up next.

   Drained, while Cycs in off 34 FD, 574 yd effort (49-35 loss). IowaSt allowing 38

   ppg last 5 games, & rank 99th in total "D". 'Pokes not about to let this get away.

   Missouri 49 - BAYLOR 17 - (12:30) -- Loved it! Tigs came storming back with

   58-0 shutout of Colorado, behind 5 more Daniel TDs (32-of-38). Now at 42

   ppg last 22 outings. Bears still moving it behind Griffin, who checked in at 7.6

   ypr in loss to Neb, but the fav is 6-0 ATS in Baylor hosters by 109 pts. Again!

   Auburn 20 - MISSISSIPPI 19 - (12:30) -- Seven straight line losses for Tigs, who

   were outgunned at WVa LW. Stagnant "O", but 13th best "D" resulting in very

   tight games, with their SEC tilts decided by 1, 5, 2, 1, 3 pts SU. Won't run on

   Rebs, who are in off 2 wrenchers. Dog is +58 pts ATS in last 5 OleMiss gms.

   WYOMING 27 - San Diego State 24 - (2:00) -- Wise Points explains meaning of

   this score. 'Pokes, unbelievably, haven't' come within single digits of the spread

   all year. Are 0-15 ATS, with a 207-30 pt deficit last 5 tilts. Henderson breathed

   life into SDSt LW (188 RYs), but Aztecs lost last 3 RGs by 48-9 ppg. Scary.

   WESTERN MICHIGAN 37 - Eastern Michigan 24 - (2:00) -- Broncs rested off

   having 6-game run snapped, despite a 471-PY effort from Hiller. Not much,

   overland (<53 yds 3 of last 4), so EM, which is +27 pts ATS on the MAC road,

   & which is in off an admirable 163 rushing "D" vs BallSt, may just hang around.

   Tulsa 48 - ARKANSAS 31 - (2:00) -- Realize 'Canes are stepping up in class, &

   that they lost their last RG by 18 pts ATS, but can see no reason not to light it

   up vs Hogs' 106th ranked scoring "D". Arkies have allowed 36 ppg in their last

   11 lined affairs, so despite running of Smith (487 yds last 3 wks), it's the 'Canes.

   TEXAS A&M 27 - Colorado 26 - (2:00) -- Buffs in off first shutout loss in 242

   games. Certainly a scoring midget, at 13 ppg last 6 games, & at 57 RYpg 3 of

   last 4. Ags off much needed win over IowaSt, behind 4 Johnson TDs, but note

   allowing 34 FDs & 583 yds to Cyclones' previously 93rd rated "O". Interested?

   Pittsburgh 27 - NOTRE DAME 24 - (2:30 - NBC) -- Pitt allowed 6 TD tosses in

   54-34 loss to Rutgers, despite 486-442 yd edge, thereby snapping 5-gm win

   streak. McCoy last 4: 593 RYs. Irish QB Clausen at 1,206 PYs (9/3) last 4,

   while "D" ceding 18 ppg last 8 tilts. But Pitt covered last 2 RGs by 18½ &18.

   Hawaii 24 - UTAH STATE 21 - (3:00) -- Wrenching loss for Ags (Fresno), after

   taking lead in final 0:38. Rank #100 on "O", but host is 5-0 ATS by 56 pts in Ag

   tilts. A 308-452 RY deficit for 'Bows LW, & a 263-145 pt deficit last 8 lined tilts.

   SOUTH CAROLINA 22 - Tennessee 19 - (7:00) -- 'Cocks rested off having 4-gm

   run snapped. Own 6th best "D" in land, & well remember LY's heartbreak, but

   can't run (64 ypg last 3), so not to be trusted. Ditto Vols, who are at 78 RYpg

   last 6 outings, & at 11 ppg 5 of last 6, but have 11th best "D". Visiting series.

   OKLAHOMA 61 - Nebraska 27 - (5:00) -- Sure, 'Huskers QB Ganz has thrown

   for 1,013 yds last 3 wks, & stands at 26/6 for the season. And sure, Neb is

   +35 pts ATS in its 2 RGs. Sure, sure, sure. But Okies in off setting school

   record with 55 first-half pts, despite mere 13-of-32 for Bradford. A slaughter.

   Oregon 33 - CALIFORNIA 30 - (3:30) -- Fifteen takeaways in Bears' 5 wins, with

   another 4 LW, turning tight game vs Ucla, into 41-20 win. RB Best a keeper,

   but QBing is a ? Ducks back on track, with 54-20 rout of ArizSt (537 yds), &

   now at 44 ppg in 19 of last 21 tilts. Healthy at QB, & remember LY's tuff loss.

   NAVY 30 - Temple 17 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Not a single pass thrown in Navy's 417

   RY edge vs SMU (15-pt cover). Thus, Owls, who've allowed 36, 91, 55, & 47

   RYs last 4 games, have their work cut out. Just 143 yds for Temple last week.

   KANSAS 41 - Kansas State 27 - (12:30) -- Consecutive setbacks for KU, while

   allowing 108 pts, 65 FDs, & 1,230 yds. Reesing just 2/3 vs TexTech, a 42-pt

   home loss, both SU & ATS. But 'Cats allowed similar 116 pts to those same 2

   teams. In off 5 TO deficit, but visitor is 5-0 ATS in KSt games by 54 pts ATS.

   PURDUE 20 - Michigan 17 - (12:00) -- Don't get near this. Wolves in off 39-0 &

   21-0 deficits to wind up last 2 games, rank 107th on "O", & 3 more INTs for QB

   Threet LW. And how about a 118-55 pt deficit in last 3 RGs? Boilers may have

   lost QB Painter (arm) in loss to Minny, so it just may be RB Sheets or nothing.

   Clemson 22 - BOSTON COLLEGE 17 - (3:30) -- New coach for rested Tigers

   (Swinney). Just 21 & 51 RYs last 2 outings, & no Spiller. But long memories

   of 3 straight wrenching losses to BC. Eags saw 10-0 lead over UNC, turn into

   45-17 deficit. Eleven TOs last 3, 61 RYpg last 2, & QB Crane a project. Tigs!

   San Jose State 31 - IDAHO 17 - (5:00) -- Only TDs for Spartans vs Boise came

   on INT return & 60-yd run. Decent "D", but 101st ranked "O". Signs of life in

   Vandal camp: 215, 271 RYs 2 of last 3 (McCarty: 160 LW), thus hope survives.

   Byu 30 - COLORADO STATE 20 - (6:00) -- Nearly 2 straight losses for Coogs,

   off 16-gm run, with 4th Hall TD (in last 1:46) providing winning margin vs Unlv.

   Minus 39 pts ATS last 2. Rams can't run, & can't stop the run (226 yds for

   SDSt's 120th ranked rushing "O" LW), but they're +30 pts ATS in last 3 HGs.

   Boise State 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 10 - (7:00) -- No question that Broncos

   playing their best ball on the road TY. Have held 5 of 7 foes to 7 pts or less, &

   in off 9 FD "D" showing at SanJoseSt (39:26-20:34 time edge). Ag QB Holbrook

   LW: 79% (37-of-47), but just 14, 14 pts last 2 weeks. A home series no more.

   MISSISSIPPI STATE 20 - Kentucky 16 - (2:30) -- Bulldogs have been outstatted

   by all SEC foes except Vandy, & have yet to reach 170 RYs in a lined affair. But

   UK is hurting at RB & DB, with resultant 66-5 loss to Florida a far cry from their

   previously 4th rated scoring "D". Covered 1st 2 RGs by 40½ pts. Ends here.

   GEORGIA TECH 24 - Florida State 23 - (3:30) -- Jackets let us down, big time,

   in 24-17 loss to Virginia, but they still own a 1,465-639 RY edge in lined games.

   'Noles KO'ed VaTech's first 2 QBs in LW's win. Check 6 sacks for nation's #3

   "D" in that one. QB Ponder, RB Smith, along with that defense, takes it to wire.

   LSU 34 - Tulane 10 - (8:00) -- Call this along lines of LY's Tiger win. Bayous ran

   for 188 yds vs GA's #3 rush "D" (Scott: 144 yds), but were killed by 3 Lee INTs,

   including 1 taken in for TD on game's 1st play. The Wave came from 318 RYs

   to 34 in a week, thus the dog is now 6-1 ATS in Greenie games, by 104½ pts.

   Tcu 38 - UNLV 10 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Rebs on 4-game slide, blowing 4th quarter

   leads in last 3 (final 1:46 LW, despite 321 PYs from Clayton). Move the ball,

   but maybe not here, as Frogs rank #1 on "D", holding 7 foes to 7 pts or less. An

   82-14 pt edge last 2 wks, but a 10-pt ATS loss in last RG. But can't buck 'em.

   SO MISSISSIPPI 33 - Uab 27 - (8:00) -- Five straight losses for SoMiss, allowing

   516 yds to a Memphis squad, which is down to its 3rd string QB. Balanced on

   "O" (#17), but can't stop anyone. Blazers also own moldy "D" (31 ppg last 13),

   & Webb has 5 INTs last 2 wks, but Uab normally close to the spot. Tite series.

   Rice 48 - UTEP 45 - (9:00) -- Shootout alert! Owls' Clement has thrown for 15

   TDs the past 4 games, while Rebs' Vittatoe checks in with 14 in his last 4 tilts.

   Utep has a 36-35 ppg edge in its last 15 games, but saw a 28-21 lead turn into

   a 77-35 loss in its last outing (Tulsa). Owls: 42 or more pts 5 times this year.

   Utah 28 - NEW MEXICO 24 - (9:30) -- Rested Utes are cruising at 8-0 so far,

   averaging 41 ppg in their last 7, behind QB Johnson's leadership. But may not

   be all that easy here, as the Lobos are plus 77 pts ATS in their last 3 HGs, &

   check 271 RYpg in their last 4 gms. Not involved, but give Lobos bit of a peek.

   OREGON STATE 44 - Arizona State 17 - (10:15) -- Let's see. Five straight wins

   & covers (by 91 pts ATS) for the Beavers, compared to five straight losses for

   the Devils (-69 pts ATS). Only 64 RYpg in Suns' last 4 outings, & Carpenter

   just 10/6 for the season. Rodgers duet aids in extending home trend of series.

   SUNDAY

   East Carolina 27 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 26 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Pirates had an

   extra week to prepare for this, while the Knights are in off battling Tulsa. The dog

   is 7-1 ATS in ECU games of late, with Pirates minus 42 pts ATS in their last 3

   RGs. UCF down a huge notch this year, but has covered it 2 HGs. This to wire.

   TUESDAY

   BUFFALO 24 - Miami-Ohio 23 - (7:30 - ESPN2) -- Bulls surely needed their bye

   week, following a pair of OT contests. The dog is the way to go with both teams:

   6-0 ATS in UB games, & 16-5 ATS in MU contests. Tight series, so we go along.

   WEDNESDAY

   BALL STATE 27 - Northern Illinois 20 - (8:00 - ESPNU) -- Cards now 8-0 (best

   start in more than 4 decades). Balanced behind QB Davis (15/5), but just +2

   pts ATS at home. NIU's "D": only 3 offensive TDs allowed in last 25 quarters.

   AKRON 34 - Toledo 28 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Not much breathing room in Zip tilts

   (2, 3, 4, 7 pt SU margins last 4). Exploded for 339 RYs vs EM (Kennedy: 277).

   Rockets stayed with Central, but lost their last RG by 22 pts ATS. Mild Zip call.

   ADDED GAMES

   WESTERN KY 41 - North Texas 10

   ALABAMA 39 - Arkansas State 10

   Fla International 27 - LAFAYETTE 24

   Troy 35 - LA-MONROE 21

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 30 2008 2:33pm
9. 0 likes

   Pointwise

   COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

   1--MICHIGAN STATE over Wisconsin 38-17

   1--Oregon (+) over CALIFORNIA 33-30

   2--OREGON STATE over Arizona State 44-17

   3--TEXAS TECH (+) over Texas 47-45

   3--Florida over Georgia 37-20

   4--LOUISIANA TECH (+) over Fresno State 30-27

   5--USC over Washington 60-6

   5--STANFORD over Washington State 54-13

   MICHIGAN STATE 38 - Wisconsin 17 - (12:00) -- Yes, we know full well, that the

   Spartans dropped their last HG, 45-7, but 5 TO greased the skids. Back on

   track now, with another 194 RYs for Ringer LW (1,157 last 7). Badgers have

   been stung for 31, 38, 38, 34, 27, & 38 pts in their last 6 Big10 RGs. Romper.

   Oregon 33 - CALIFORNIA 30 - (3:30) -- Fifteen takeaways in Bears' 5 wins, with

   another 4 LW, turning tight game vs Ucla, into 41-20 win. RB Best a keeper,

   but QBing is a ? Ducks back on track, with 54-20 rout of ArizSt (537 yds), &

   now at 44 ppg in 19 of last 21 tilts. Healthy at QB, & remember LY's tuff loss.

   OREGON STATE 44 - Arizona State 17 - (10:15) -- Let's see. Five straight wins

   & covers (by 91 pts ATS) for the Beavers, compared to five straight losses for

   the Devils (-69 pts ATS). Only 64 RYpg in Suns' last 4 outings, & Carpenter

   just 10/6 for the season. Rodgers duet aids in extending home trend of series.

   TEXAS TECH 47 - Texas 45 - (8:00) -- Raiders entered LW's game with Kansas

   at 418 PYpg. That's right, an exact 418 PYs for Harrell (5 TDs, & 26/5 for the

   year) in that 63-21 annihilation. 'Horn QB McCoy at 21/4 & 82% for the year, &

   how about astounding 87% last 2 wks. Revenge call in this ultimate shootout.

   Florida 37 - Georgia 20 - (3:30 - CBS - @ Jacksonville) -- Had Gators on both

   RedSheet & Phones, but not high enuff in 63-5 rout of KY. Have a 152-33 pt

   edge since loss to OleMiss, & chalk now 10-2 ATS in Fla tilts. Moreno off 172,

   163 RY gms for 'Dawgs, but note GA allowing 500 yds LW. Color it revenge!

   LOUISIANA TECH 30 - Fresno State 27 - (2:30) -- Talk about living on borrowed

   time. FSt in off winning on 58-yd FG on final play, with 5 of last 6 decided by 3,

   1, 5, 3, 2 pts SU. No rushing "D", & on 0-6 ATS slide, despite 5-2 SU log. The

   host is 7-0 ATS in Tech games by 85½ pts, & LT can move it overland. Upset.

   SO CALIFORNIA 60 - Washington 6 - (3:30) -- Katie, bar the door! Catching the

   Trojans off narrow escape not the healthiest of propositions for Huskies, who

   have yet to win (0-7), & who allowed 252 RYs to NoDame's previously 109th

   ranked run "O". SC has a 154-20 pt edge since loss to OregSt. Over already!

   STANFORD 54 - Washington State 13 - (5:00) -- Time for Cardinal to take full

   advantage of the gift that is WashSt. Stanford: 229 RYpg last 5, with Gerhart

   at 779. And check 13 TOs in Cards' 4 losses. Coogs rested off worst loss in

   school history (69-0), & in possession of 54-9 ppg deficit in lined affairs this yr.

   Thursday

   CINCINNATI 26 - South Florida 23 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Sporadically impressive

   Bulls managed just 8 RYs at Louisville (5 sacks), & altho Grothe was 30-of-40,

   note 2 picks, & he had 4 LY vs these 'Cats. A 6-0 TO deficit for Cincy in loss to

   UConn, but still a solid run "D", while just 30 pts from a 27-3 ATS run. Host call.

   SATURDAY

   BOWLING GREEN 31 - Kent State 30 - (2:00) -- Flashes in off snapping 0-12

   ATS run, with 54-21 shocker at Miami. Checks 932 RYs for KSt last 4 games,

   & +31 pts ATS last 4. All BG's MAC games have been decided within a TD, &

   the visitor is 8-0 ATS in Falcon tilts TY, by 129½ pts. In off 233-76 RY deficit.

   Central Michigan 34 - INDIANA 24 - (12:00) -- Nice one to avoid. Indy snapped

   5-game slide LW, thanks mainly to 5 TOs by N'western. IU allowed 245 RYpg

   previous 4 outings, & can't run. LeFevour back for Chips: 24-of-31 (2/0) LW,

   but CM not at its best in this setup, with 44 ppg "D" in its 2 non-MAC roadsters.

   Air Force 38 - ARMY 17 - (12:00 - ESPNC) -- Resurgent Cadets keep motoring

   on: 280, 291, 341, 320, & 203 RYs last 5 games (Mooney: 645 yds last 4), &

   covering all 5 by 89 pts. But Falcs held 420 RY edge LY (Wise Points), & are

   at 974 RYs last 3 outings. Visitor is plus 105 pts ATS in Army's last 7 games.

   Louisville 34 - SYRACUSE 10 - (7:00) -- Definite corner turning for Cards, who

   allow just 75 RYpg, rank 17th in rushing "O", & in off holding SoFla to 8 RYs.

   Rested 'Cuse managed no FDs & 9 yds in 2nd half of loss to SoFla. They were

   decent in previous 14 quarters, but a 33-15 ppg deficit last 25 tilts. Revenger!

   VIRGINIA 23 - Miami-Fla 20 - (12:00) -- Four straight wins & covers for Cavs,

   who opened at 0-3, with a 128-20 pt deficit in first 3 lined tilts. Are 3-0 home of

   late, & by 72½ pts ATS. Check QB Verica at 29-of-39 vs GaTech. 'Canes in

   off outlasting Wake, but just 11 FDs & <300 yds. Can't run, but 19th best "D".

   CONNECTICUT 20 - West Virginia 17 - (12:00) -- Finally! After failing to top 17

   pts in previous 4 outings, Mounties turned 17-3 deficit, into 34-17 win vs Aub,

   with 207 RYs from Devine (sweet 12.2 ypr). And WV has owned the Huskies

   (Wise Points). But host is 12-2 ATS in UConn games, so worth a minor shot.

   ILLINOIS 25 - Iowa 20 - (12:30) -- Let's see. The rested Hawkeyes covered their

   last RG by 30 pts, while the Illini covered their last HG by 26 (both vs Indiana).

   Illini came from 538 ypg in previous 3 outings, to just 309 at Wisconsin, while

   Iowa RB Greene now at 1,154 yds (6.5 ypr - 217 last game). Near the spread.

   MINNESOTA 27 - Northwestern 17 - (12:00) -- A 5-0 TO deficit for 'Cats in loss

   to Indy, & now may have lost QB Bacher (leg). Have OhioSt up next, but run

   into avenging Gophers (Wise Points), whose turnaround has been splendid:

   from 1-11 LY, to 7-1 TY. Held all but Buckeyes under 139 RYs. Weber leads it.

   WAKE FOREST 17 - Duke 10 - (3:30) -- It continues. Just 10 ppg for Wake in

   last 5 tilts. Opened with 25 straight running plays in loss to Miami. One of the

   worst HF plays, & Imps remember last 2 years. Duke still can't run (74 RYpg

   last 5), despite win over Vandy, & averaging only 5 ppg away. But a puppy call.

   OKLAHOMA STATE 55 - Iowa State 10 - (3:30) -- Quick bounceback shot for

   'Boys, who nearly took Texas (217-112 RY edge), & who have TexTech up next.

   Drained, while Cycs in off 34 FD, 574 yd effort (49-35 loss). IowaSt allowing 38

   ppg last 5 games, & rank 99th in total "D". 'Pokes not about to let this get away.

   Missouri 49 - BAYLOR 17 - (12:30) -- Loved it! Tigs came storming back with

   58-0 shutout of Colorado, behind 5 more Daniel TDs (32-of-38). Now at 42

   ppg last 22 outings. Bears still moving it behind Griffin, who checked in at 7.6

   ypr in loss to Neb, but the fav is 6-0 ATS in Baylor hosters by 109 pts. Again!

   Auburn 20 - MISSISSIPPI 19 - (12:30) -- Seven straight line losses for Tigs, who

   were outgunned at WVa LW. Stagnant "O", but 13th best "D" resulting in very

   tight games, with their SEC tilts decided by 1, 5, 2, 1, 3 pts SU. Won't run on

   Rebs, who are in off 2 wrenchers. Dog is +58 pts ATS in last 5 OleMiss gms.

   WYOMING 27 - San Diego State 24 - (2:00) -- Wise Points explains meaning of

   this score. 'Pokes, unbelievably, haven't' come within single digits of the spread

   all year. Are 0-15 ATS, with a 207-30 pt deficit last 5 tilts. Henderson breathed

   life into SDSt LW (188 RYs), but Aztecs lost last 3 RGs by 48-9 ppg. Scary.

   WESTERN MICHIGAN 37 - Eastern Michigan 24 - (2:00) -- Broncs rested off

   having 6-game run snapped, despite a 471-PY effort from Hiller. Not much,

   overland (<53 yds 3 of last 4), so EM, which is +27 pts ATS on the MAC road,

   & which is in off an admirable 163 rushing "D" vs BallSt, may just hang around.

   Tulsa 48 - ARKANSAS 31 - (2:00) -- Realize 'Canes are stepping up in class, &

   that they lost their last RG by 18 pts ATS, but can see no reason not to light it

   up vs Hogs' 106th ranked scoring "D". Arkies have allowed 36 ppg in their last

   11 lined affairs, so despite running of Smith (487 yds last 3 wks), it's the 'Canes.

   TEXAS A&M 27 - Colorado 26 - (2:00) -- Buffs in off first shutout loss in 242

   games. Certainly a scoring midget, at 13 ppg last 6 games, & at 57 RYpg 3 of

   last 4. Ags off much needed win over IowaSt, behind 4 Johnson TDs, but note

   allowing 34 FDs & 583 yds to Cyclones' previously 93rd rated "O". Interested?

   Pittsburgh 27 - NOTRE DAME 24 - (2:30 - NBC) -- Pitt allowed 6 TD tosses in

   54-34 loss to Rutgers, despite 486-442 yd edge, thereby snapping 5-gm win

   streak. McCoy last 4: 593 RYs. Irish QB Clausen at 1,206 PYs (9/3) last 4,

   while "D" ceding 18 ppg last 8 tilts. But Pitt covered last 2 RGs by 18½ &18.

   Hawaii 24 - UTAH STATE 21 - (3:00) -- Wrenching loss for Ags (Fresno), after

   taking lead in final 0:38. Rank #100 on "O", but host is 5-0 ATS by 56 pts in Ag

   tilts. A 308-452 RY deficit for 'Bows LW, & a 263-145 pt deficit last 8 lined tilts.

   SOUTH CAROLINA 22 - Tennessee 19 - (7:00) -- 'Cocks rested off having 4-gm

   run snapped. Own 6th best "D" in land, & well remember LY's heartbreak, but

   can't run (64 ypg last 3), so not to be trusted. Ditto Vols, who are at 78 RYpg

   last 6 outings, & at 11 ppg 5 of last 6, but have 11th best "D". Visiting series.

   OKLAHOMA 61 - Nebraska 27 - (5:00) -- Sure, 'Huskers QB Ganz has thrown

   for 1,013 yds last 3 wks, & stands at 26/6 for the season. And sure, Neb is

   +35 pts ATS in its 2 RGs. Sure, sure, sure. But Okies in off setting school

   record with 55 first-half pts, despite mere 13-of-32 for Bradford. A slaughter.

   Oregon 33 - CALIFORNIA 30 - (3:30) -- Fifteen takeaways in Bears' 5 wins, with

   another 4 LW, turning tight game vs Ucla, into 41-20 win. RB Best a keeper,

   but QBing is a ? Ducks back on track, with 54-20 rout of ArizSt (537 yds), &

   now at 44 ppg in 19 of last 21 tilts. Healthy at QB, & remember LY's tuff loss.

   NAVY 30 - Temple 17 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Not a single pass thrown in Navy's 417

   RY edge vs SMU (15-pt cover). Thus, Owls, who've allowed 36, 91, 55, & 47

   RYs last 4 games, have their work cut out. Just 143 yds for Temple last week.

   KANSAS 41 - Kansas State 27 - (12:30) -- Consecutive setbacks for KU, while

   allowing 108 pts, 65 FDs, & 1,230 yds. Reesing just 2/3 vs TexTech, a 42-pt

   home loss, both SU & ATS. But 'Cats allowed similar 116 pts to those same 2

   teams. In off 5 TO deficit, but visitor is 5-0 ATS in KSt games by 54 pts ATS.

   PURDUE 20 - Michigan 17 - (12:00) -- Don't get near this. Wolves in off 39-0 &

   21-0 deficits to wind up last 2 games, rank 107th on "O", & 3 more INTs for QB

   Threet LW. And how about a 118-55 pt deficit in last 3 RGs? Boilers may have

   lost QB Painter (arm) in loss to Minny, so it just may be RB Sheets or nothing.

   Clemson 22 - BOSTON COLLEGE 17 - (3:30) -- New coach for rested Tigers

   (Swinney). Just 21 & 51 RYs last 2 outings, & no Spiller. But long memories

   of 3 straight wrenching losses to BC. Eags saw 10-0 lead over UNC, turn into

   45-17 deficit. Eleven TOs last 3, 61 RYpg last 2, & QB Crane a project. Tigs!

   San Jose State 31 - IDAHO 17 - (5:00) -- Only TDs for Spartans vs Boise came

   on INT return & 60-yd run. Decent "D", but 101st ranked "O". Signs of life in

   Vandal camp: 215, 271 RYs 2 of last 3 (McCarty: 160 LW), thus hope survives.

   Byu 30 - COLORADO STATE 20 - (6:00) -- Nearly 2 straight losses for Coogs,

   off 16-gm run, with 4th Hall TD (in last 1:46) providing winning margin vs Unlv.

   Minus 39 pts ATS last 2. Rams can't run, & can't stop the run (226 yds for

   SDSt's 120th ranked rushing "O" LW), but they're +30 pts ATS in last 3 HGs.

   Boise State 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 10 - (7:00) -- No question that Broncos

   playing their best ball on the road TY. Have held 5 of 7 foes to 7 pts or less, &

   in off 9 FD "D" showing at SanJoseSt (39:26-20:34 time edge). Ag QB Holbrook

   LW: 79% (37-of-47), but just 14, 14 pts last 2 weeks. A home series no more.

   MISSISSIPPI STATE 20 - Kentucky 16 - (2:30) -- Bulldogs have been outstatted

   by all SEC foes except Vandy, & have yet to reach 170 RYs in a lined affair. But

   UK is hurting at RB & DB, with resultant 66-5 loss to Florida a far cry from their

   previously 4th rated scoring "D". Covered 1st 2 RGs by 40½ pts. Ends here.

   GEORGIA TECH 24 - Florida State 23 - (3:30) -- Jackets let us down, big time,

   in 24-17 loss to Virginia, but they still own a 1,465-639 RY edge in lined games.

   'Noles KO'ed VaTech's first 2 QBs in LW's win. Check 6 sacks for nation's #3

   "D" in that one. QB Ponder, RB Smith, along with that defense, takes it to wire.

   LSU 34 - Tulane 10 - (8:00) -- Call this along lines of LY's Tiger win. Bayous ran

   for 188 yds vs GA's #3 rush "D" (Scott: 144 yds), but were killed by 3 Lee INTs,

   including 1 taken in for TD on game's 1st play. The Wave came from 318 RYs

   to 34 in a week, thus the dog is now 6-1 ATS in Greenie games, by 104½ pts.

   Tcu 38 - UNLV 10 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Rebs on 4-game slide, blowing 4th quarter

   leads in last 3 (final 1:46 LW, despite 321 PYs from Clayton). Move the ball,

   but maybe not here, as Frogs rank #1 on "D", holding 7 foes to 7 pts or less. An

   82-14 pt edge last 2 wks, but a 10-pt ATS loss in last RG. But can't buck 'em.

   SO MISSISSIPPI 33 - Uab 27 - (8:00) -- Five straight losses for SoMiss, allowing

   516 yds to a Memphis squad, which is down to its 3rd string QB. Balanced on

   "O" (#17), but can't stop anyone. Blazers also own moldy "D" (31 ppg last 13),

   & Webb has 5 INTs last 2 wks, but Uab normally close to the spot. Tite series.

   Rice 48 - UTEP 45 - (9:00) -- Shootout alert! Owls' Clement has thrown for 15

   TDs the past 4 games, while Rebs' Vittatoe checks in with 14 in his last 4 tilts.

   Utep has a 36-35 ppg edge in its last 15 games, but saw a 28-21 lead turn into

   a 77-35 loss in its last outing (Tulsa). Owls: 42 or more pts 5 times this year.

   Utah 28 - NEW MEXICO 24 - (9:30) -- Rested Utes are cruising at 8-0 so far,

   averaging 41 ppg in their last 7, behind QB Johnson's leadership. But may not

   be all that easy here, as the Lobos are plus 77 pts ATS in their last 3 HGs, &

   check 271 RYpg in their last 4 gms. Not involved, but give Lobos bit of a peek.

   OREGON STATE 44 - Arizona State 17 - (10:15) -- Let's see. Five straight wins

   & covers (by 91 pts ATS) for the Beavers, compared to five straight losses for

   the Devils (-69 pts ATS). Only 64 RYpg in Suns' last 4 outings, & Carpenter

   just 10/6 for the season. Rodgers duet aids in extending home trend of series.

   SUNDAY

   East Carolina 27 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 26 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Pirates had an

   extra week to prepare for this, while the Knights are in off battling Tulsa. The dog

   is 7-1 ATS in ECU games of late, with Pirates minus 42 pts ATS in their last 3

   RGs. UCF down a huge notch this year, but has covered it 2 HGs. This to wire.

   TUESDAY

   BUFFALO 24 - Miami-Ohio 23 - (7:30 - ESPN2) -- Bulls surely needed their bye

   week, following a pair of OT contests. The dog is the way to go with both teams:

   6-0 ATS in UB games, & 16-5 ATS in MU contests. Tight series, so we go along.

   WEDNESDAY

   BALL STATE 27 - Northern Illinois 20 - (8:00 - ESPNU) -- Cards now 8-0 (best

   start in more than 4 decades). Balanced behind QB Davis (15/5), but just +2

   pts ATS at home. NIU's "D": only 3 offensive TDs allowed in last 25 quarters.

   AKRON 34 - Toledo 28 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Not much breathing room in Zip tilts

   (2, 3, 4, 7 pt SU margins last 4). Exploded for 339 RYs vs EM (Kennedy: 277).

   Rockets stayed with Central, but lost their last RG by 22 pts ATS. Mild Zip call.

   ADDED GAMES

   WESTERN KY 41 - North Texas 10

   ALABAMA 39 - Arkansas State 10

   Fla International 27 - LAFAYETTE 24

   Troy 35 - LA-MONROE 21

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 30 2008 2:36pm
10. 0 likes

    NC Power Sweep - NCAA

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    4* West Va. 27-17

    3* Texas A & M 34-20

    3* Florida 41-27

    2* N. Dame 31-17

    2* Wisconsin 27-24

    2* Nebraska + 31 (+) -45

    Underdog Texas Tech +6 37-34 (Texas Tech Outright)

    TEXAS TECH (+6) over Texas

    UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

    Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-128. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS

    to the incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:

    #1 Texas (8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS) is in the last leg of what Brown called “maybe the toughest 4 gm stretch in UT history.” Horns have won 5 in a row SU and in ‘06 here TT jumped out to a 24-7 lead but lost 35-31 (+10). LY UT won 59-43 (-6’) and Leach was furious with the officials after the gm. TT is 24-6 at home in Nov (7 straight wins). UT is 19-9-2 ATS in Nov. The HT is 7-3 ATS. UT looked its most vulnerable LW as they escaped OSU. Heisman frontrunner QB McCoy is avg 286 ypg (82%) with a 21-4 ratio (int & fmbl LW but set UT record w/18 straight comp). WR Shipley has 58 rec (12.7) & LW set a UT record w/15 rec (11.2). TT is 8-0 for the 1st time S/’76 after crushing KU LW (556-315 yd edge, 35+ pts in every gm TY). QB Harrell is avg 393 ypg (71%) with a 28-5 ratio and fellow Heisman hopeful WR Crabtree has 60 rec (13.2). TT is 13-6 ATS as a HD & is 4-4 under Leach with 3 outright upsets incl ‘02’s win over UT 42-38 (+6’). Both offenses are potent (TT#3-5), but UT has def (#6-23) & ST (#28-87) edges. Horns are ranked #21 in our pass eff def all’g 266 ypg (58%) with a 13-5 ratio & the Red Raiders come in at #40 (246 ypg, 63%, 10-14 ratio). Under Leach TT is 44-10 SU & 28-19 ATS in Lubbock as it’s always a tough place to play for opp’s. Keep in mind that UT has beaten 3 straight ranked foes, but at a neutral site (played in every yr) and 2 HG’s & the last time they played in a hostile B12 road environment they lost outright in College Station 38-30 (-7). FORECAST: TEXAS TECH 37 Texas 34

    4* West Virginia over CONNECTICUT - LY it was contender vs pretender as both tms had just 1 BE loss and a UC win would have given them the conf title. WV rushed for 517 yds and led 66-14 mid-4Q. UC is 6-1 ATS as a HD but WV has covered both trips here winning by a 34-15 avg. Both teams are off big wins as WV defeated Aub 34-17 last Thurs. Pat White played his 1st full game in a month and RB Devine (PS#2) rushed for 207 yds (12.1) vs a stingy Aub D. They now face a Conn def all’g 79.8 rush ypg at home. Conn bounced back from 2 straight losses defeating Cin 40-16. Conn started its 3rd string QB and put the load on RB Brown who finished with 150 (5.2). He is avg 166 ypg (5.6) & 14 TD’s. WV has slight edges on off (#35-46) and def (#38-41) but a huge edge on ST’s (#19-111). Even with Conn on an 11-0 run at home, WV’s offense looks to be on track and they have won by an avg of 29 ppg the L/4 in this series. FORECAST: West Virginia 27 CONNECTICUT 17

    3* TEXAS A&M over Colorado - The HT has won 3 str by an avg of 11 ppg. A&M is 10-3-2 ATS in Nov HG’s. The Aggies got a much needed victory LW in Ames but they still all’d 574 yds (gained 509). QB Johnson seems to be in complete control of the pro style offense avg 219 ypg (65%) with a 15-5 ratio (397 ttl yds LW). The Aggies have been outgained by 63 ypg but CU has been outgained by 157 ypg in B12 play. CU is in a downward spiral as LW they ran into a MO tm (outgained by 292 yds) off B2B losses and in desperate need of a win. The Buffs have now dropped 5 str ATS & were shutout for the 1st time S/’88. HC Hawkins isn’t a big fan of the 2-QB system but 2 wks ago pulled the RS off QB Hansen (259 ttl yds) as his son, Cody (142 ypg, 56%, 11-6 ratio) seems to have lost some confidence running the offense. CU is 3-9 as an AD, but A&M is just 1-4 SU & ATS at Kyle Field TY. Aggies come in with the better off (#45-100), but CU has the D edge (#55-101). With both tms playing a killer sked (CU#15, A&M#19) a win here could decide who goes bowling as CU is in the 2nd of a tough B2B road spot facing a tm that needs a solid win at home for the fans. FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 34 Colorado 20

    3* Florida over Georgia - Jacksonville. UGA will now face the last 2 BCS Champs in B2B games after their huge win at LSU and this is the 3rd straight ranked tm that UGA has faced. LY UGA RB Moreno rushed for a career high 188 yds & 3 TD’s as the Bulldogs pounded the Gators 42-30 with UF QB Tebow at less than 100% (-15 rush) due to a shoulder injury. Georgia had the edge of a bye LY prior to UF, something that Florida had before most of their 15 series wins (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS). Neither team is off a bye TY, but UF had a bye 2 wks ago and only faced a banged up KY tm LW which they demolished 63-5 to run their streak of reg ssn gms to a 9-1 ATS record and won as our Early Bird POW. UF is 8-1 SU but just 4-4-1 ATS vs the “Big 3” (Tenn, UGA, FSU) under Meyer. The top 2 QB’s in the SEC face off with Tebow avg 202 pass ypg (63%) with a 12-2 ratio and 227 rush (2. while Stafford is avg 243 ypg (62%) with a 12-5 ratio. UGA RB Moreno has 925 (6.2). UGA has suffered some major injs along both lines, but stood up well to LSU LW (though outgained 497-443) as they scored 14 pts off 2 IR TD’s. UF is certainly healthier at this point and after being less than 100% LY, Tebow will go full-bore in this one. This gm is a National Title elimination gm because the winner goes to the SEC Title gm with 1 loss and a shot at moving up in the polls while the loser finishes #2 in the East with no assurance of a BCS bid. FORECAST: Florida 41 Georgia 27

    2* NOTRE DAME over Pittsburgh - The Irish outgained Pitt 502-323 & outFD’d them 33-20 in their last meeting (‘05) & are now 12-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in the series. Pitt is in a BE sandwich but did upset the Irish here in ‘04 and the visitor has 3 straight outright upsets. LW ND crushed Wash 33-7 outgaining the Huskies 459-124. QB Clausen is avg 261 ypg (61%) with a 15-9 ratio & WR Tate has 31 rec (18.2). ND now faces a disarrayed Pitt defense that all’d 6 TD’s & 371 pass yds to a struggling RU offense. Pitt was stunned at home LW losing 54-34 to the Knights & knocking them from national rankings. Pitt had not all’d that many pts since a 60-6 loss to ND in 1996. QB Stull was KO’d in the 3Q (CS). RB “Shady” McCoy has rushed over 140+ yds the L/4 gms. Pitt has a slight edge on off (#29-32) while ND has def (#25-39) and ST’s (#48-81) edges as well as huge HF advantage. ND does have Catholic rival BC on deck but will not look ahead here and keep in mind ND knocked Pitt out of the national spotlight in ‘03 & ‘05. The Irish are 18-7 at Notre Dame Stadium in Nov & hand Pitt their 2nd straight loss in convincing fashion. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 31 Pittsburgh 17

    2* Wisconsin over MICHIGAN ST - UW is 3-8 SU in Nov AG & LY MSU had a 564-461 yd edge on the road but was SOD with 1:00 left at the UW38 in a 37-34 loss (+7). Last time here (‘04), MSU (+8) rolled to a 49-14 win over the #5 ranked & undefeated Badgers. UW ended their 0-4 conf start with a 27-17 win over IL in which they outrushed the Illini 163-88. QB Sherer hit 12-22 for 174 yds vs the Illini & outdueled the B10’s ttl off leader Williams with a 40-4 yd rush edge, 3-2 TD edge and had 0 int’s to Juice’s 3. With RB Hill limited (leg), Clay (PS#3) ran for 88 yds. Badgers allow 161 rush ypg (4.6) in conf play all’g Greene 217 & Beanie Wells 168. Despite missing 3 FG’s, MSU won in Michigan Stadium for the 1st time S/’90 as they outgained the Wolves 473-252 & outFD’d them 22-13. Ringer (NCAA #2 1373, 4.6) ran for 194 yds and Hoyer had his best outing of the season (17-29 for 282 yds & 3 TD). MSU allows 163 rush ypg (4.5) in B10 play. Wisky may have turned their ssn around while MSU might still be celebrating their rivalry win over ‘big brother.’ FORECAST: Wisconsin 27 MICHIGAN ST 24

    2* Nebraska (+) over OKLAHOMA - This used to be one of the top rivalries in the NCAA but they have only met 5 times in 10 yrs incl the B12 Title game in ‘06 (OU -3’, 21-7). HT is 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. Pelini was the co-DC & DB’s cch under Stoops at OU in ‘04. Sooners destroyed KSU LW on the scoreboard as TO’s helpded them put up 55 pts in the 1H (most in school history) as they were actually outgained (KSU 550 yds). QB Bradford who is #2 in the Heisman race is avg 347 ypg (68%) with a 29-5 ratio. OU has dropped at least 35 pts on every opp TY outgaining foes by 197 ypg. NU got one step closer to a bowl berth LW taking care of BU (147 yd edge). QB Ganz is avg 288 ypg (70%) with a 15-6 ratio. Both offenses (OU#1-14) are very potent, but OU has the def edge (#18-49). Huskers are ranked #39 in our pass eff def all’g 218 ypg (60%) with a 7-5 ratio while OU comes in at #9 (267 ypg, 55% 13-12 ratio). NU is 5-10 as an AD and OU has won 22 straight home gms (13-7-1 ATS) but is 1-4 as a B12 HF of 20+ and their D has allowed 37 ppg L/3. NU has opened up their offense the L/3 and will do enough to stay within the number. FORECAST: Nebraska 31 (+) OKLAHOMA 45

    Thursday, October 30th

    Usf at CINCINNATI - The Bulls had a 27-14 FD edge LY at home but committed 8 TO’s in the 38-33 loss, as they gave up 38 1H points, the most by any Bulls team ever. The HT is 4-1 SU with the avg win by 13 ppg and Cincy has covered 4 straight. Both teams come in off disappointing losses. USF is in a similar situation as LY as Cincy handed them their third loss which KO’d them from the National rankings after peaking at #2.

    Saturday Games

    - BOWLING GREEN 27 Kent St 24 - Last time KSU visited BG (‘06) they won by 35 pts, largest road win S/‘73. LY BG won on the road 31-20 with Kent St being SOD at the BG3 twice. The visitor is 3-0 SU/ATS winning by 19 ppg. The tms’ off rankings are almost identical (KS #80-81), but BG does have the D edge (#80-100) despite playing the tougher schedule (#72-111). BG covered as a 7 pt AD LW, but was outFD’d 19-10 and outgained 278-168 as NI kept the BG offense off the field with a 17:14 TOP edge. BG is 2-11-1 ATS at home. For a 2nd straight week BG entered the 4Q with a lead but was held scoreless and lost. BG QB Sheehan is avg 220 ypg (65%) with a 12-5 ratio. Their top 2 rushers are Turner (318, 4. and Bullock (298, 4.5). Kent St beat Miami 54-21 the wk after Miami beat BG 27-20. Kent St came off a bye and finally played up to their potential as they outgained Miami 468-318, were +6 TO and led 47-7 at the end of 3Q. QB Edelman is avg 141 ypg (55%) with a 9-8 ratio and is the top rusher with 781 (5.9).

    Central Michigan 31 INDIANA 28 - CM is 0-3 all-time vs Indiana but nearly won in their last gm in ‘05 (20-13 loss, +7). CM HC Jones is 1-4 ATS as an AD vs BCS tms. FYI non-BCS tms that are favored over BCS teams are 6-4 SU but just 3-7 ATS TY. Minus QB Lewis (ankle) for a 2nd straight gm, Indiana broke a streak of 6 straight IA ATS losses (incl an outright loss to MAC member Ball St) with a 21-19 upset of NW (+7’), which kept the Hoosiers’ bowl hopes alive. Those same hopes should mean IU will give CM their full attention in this B10 sandwich. CM is also in a conf sandwich and with the goal of their 3rd straight MAC Championship determined in their final 3 games they may protect QB LeFevour. LeFevour missed the WM game and was knocked out for a few series vs Toledo. He is avg 231 ypg (67%) with an 11-3 ratio and leads the team in rushing with 329 (3.7). CM has the off edge (#40-74) but Indiana has the D edge (#85-99) despite playing the tougher schedule (#58-85).

    Air Force 20 ARMY 13 - AF is 17-2 S/‘89 holding Army to 7 or less 11x’s. Last trip here we used a Fri Nite Play on AF (-4’) and they blew out Army, 43-7. AF has covered 5 in a row at West Point. Army is 1-9 in Michie Stad finales with the avg loss by 16 ppg. AF became bowl eligible with its win over NM on Thurs night. It was tied at 10 at the half (NM 10 pts off TO) before AF rolled 23-10 despite being held to a ssn-low 227 rush yds with just 3 pass att. Since taking over as the st’r, Jefferson has thrown for 196 ttl yd (75%) with a 2-0 ratio (0 att LW) and has 218 rush yd (4.6). Fr RB Clark has 260 (4.5) the L/3. AF has covered 6 of 8 away from home vs non-conf and is 2-1 ATS as an AF under Calhoun. LW Army beat LT 14-7 thanks to Ian Smith, who scored his 1st 2 TD. QB Bowden moved to 5-0 ATS as the st’r and Army finished with 12-9 FD & 235-152 yd edges. Bowden is the #2 rusher (412, 3.3) and has 138 ttl pass yd (1st TD pass LW). The top rusher is Mooney with 874 (6.0). Army is 2-8 ATS as a HD (2-0 TY) and while they’re getting better at running the wishbone every wk, AF has done this for yrs. Army still has a chance for the CIC Trophy but AF is out (33-27 loss to Navy).

    Louisville 37 SYRACUSE 17 - LY was one of the biggest upsets in college football history as UL all’d 465 yds & 38 pts to a Syr tm that ranked near the bottom in every off category and lost 38-35 as 37 pt favs! Syr is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in the series and has covered as DD dogs vs UL the L3Y. LW UL upset #14 USF 24-20. NFL prospect QB Cantwell hooked up with WR Long (ret from inj) for 2 long TD’s and ran in another. The ground game has emerged avg 196 ypg (4. led by rFr Anderson avg 104 ypg (6.4) with 6 TD’s. They now face a Syr run D all’g 212 ypg (5.3). Syr is off a bye after their 17-6 loss to WV, a game in which they led into the 4Q. The bright spot for the Orange offense has been RB Brinkley who has rushed for 733 yds (5.6). The UL D is all’g 75 ypg rush (2.7). UL has large edges on off (#41-102) & D (#58-106) while Syr has a huge ST edge (#20-96). Teams tend to tune up on Syracuse & this will be an opportunity for the Cards (now 5-2 ATS) before a tough EOY stretch.

    Miami, Fl 24 VIRGINIA 20 - Legitimate revenge for UM as Virginia crushed them 48-0 in the Canes’ final game in the Orange Bowl LY. The home shutout was the 1st S/’74 & worst home loss S/’47. The dog is 4-0 ATS in this series with 3 outright upsets. Miami is 4-9 SU on the road while Virginia is 34-8 SU at home. UM has a bye next. Both teams need just 1 more win to become bowl elig. UVA started the season losing 3 of 4 gms but won their 4th straight and took over the #1 spot in the Atl Div LW as they rallied from an early 14-3 deficit to upset GT 24-17 (+14). UVA has now won 8 gms as a dog over the L2Y RB Peerman started off the season slow (inj’d) but has rushed for 541 yds (5.7) incl 118 LW. QB Verica is avg 183 ypg (67%) with a 5-9 ratio. UM has the edge on both sides of the ball (off #51-76, def #30-44). UM won their 3rd straight LW, a 16-10 win vs WF and 2nd consec Atl Div win for the1st time in 2 yrs. QB Marve, who is avg just 113 ypg (55%) with a 7-9 ratio, passed for 153 yds LW. RB Cooper has 476 rush yds (5.3). UM was embarrassed LY in front of dozens of former star Canes’ players who where in attendance and redeem themselves here.

    Iowa 24 ILLINOIS 23 - Iowa has won the L/5 & has held the Illini to 7 or less in 3 meetings under Zook. LY IL was off 2 straight wins over ranked teams & HD Iowa (+4’) won 10-6. Iowa is off a bye & both teams last played Wisky. The Hawks won 38-16 (-4’) in Iowa City with a 254-158 rush yd edge thanks to Greene’s 217 yds & 4 TD while IL (-2) lost 27-17 in Madison as Juice Williams threw 3 int & the Illini were outrushed 163-88. Williams (271 ypg, 59%, 18-10 ratio) still leads the conf in pass eff & total offense. WR Benn’s (46 rec, 16.1) school record 4 gm 100 yd receiving streak was stopped LW when he was shutout in the 2H. Illini are allowing 152 rush ypg (3.9) and Zook has hinted at lineup changes with vets not producing. Hawks QB Stanzi is #3 B10 pass eff avg 174 ypg (66%) with a 5-2 ratio in conf play. Greene (1154, 6.5) is the only IA player to start the year with 8 straight 100 yd gms. Hawks are #24 in pass eff D (192, 54%, 5-14 ratio). IL has home & off (#15-44) edges and is 4-4 with no gimmes left while Iowa has big D (#12-48) & ST (#22-89) edges.

    MINNESOTA 24 Northwestern 21- LY the Cats rallied from a 35-14 3Q deficit to win 49-48 in 2 OT as the Gophers missed a 2 pt conv for the win. These tms have avg’d 70 ppg the L/6. NU last won in the dome on HC in 2000, 41-35 on a Hail Mary TD pass. After finishing 1-11 LY, Minny is 7-1 & ahead of OSU in the B10 standings after LW’s 17-6 win at Purdue in which they outgained their 1st conf opp 321-226 (KO’d QB Painter 2Q). UM had been outgained by 115 ypg in B10 play prior. QB Weber (228 ypg, 67%, 10-3 ratio) has the conf’s top target in WR Decker (#3 NCAA-66, 12.6). Gophers lead, the NCAA in TO margin at +15. Cats were upset 21-19 at Indy as they lost 5 TO’s and QB Bacher (leg) and RB Sutton (wrist) were both KO’d. Sutton (776, 5.0), is scheduled to have surgery TW and it’s unknown when/if he will return while the struggling Bacher (#91 NCAA pass eff with 10-11 ratio) is ?. Cats are tied for conf lead in sacks (24). This is rare air for the Gophers who have covered their L/5.

    Duke 21 WAKE FOREST 20 - LY WF led by 25 but let Duke rally back as they barely pulled out the 41-36 win. WF has won 8 in a row SU by an avg of 34-20. Duke has nearly pulled upsets their L/2 visits here coming up just short 24-22 (+17) in ‘04 (Duke 423-410 yd edge). In ‘06 Duke had a 234-82 yd edge at half and WF needed a TD with 1:28 left to lead 14-13 (-20) and then blk’d a Duke 28 yd chip shot FG on the last play. Duke is 25-11 ATS as an AD incl their Big Dog POW upset LW, 10-7 (+10’) over Vandy. QB Lewis is #2 in the ACC avg 189 ypg (58%) with a solid 10-3 ratio. WR Riley has 38 rec (11.0). These 2 matchup nearly even on off (Duke #87-93) but WF has a solid D edge (#11-65). WF is 6-15 as a HF under Grobe and they have just 2 offensive TD’s in 4 ACC gms TY. Since LY WF has had 3 gms in which they rushed 50+ times and lost incl their 16-10 loss to UM LW. QB Skinner is #1 in the ACC avg 192 ypg (64%) with a 7-4 ratio. WR Boldin has 39 rec (11.1). Duke has kept it close the last few yrs but may finally get over the hump to pull the upset with a much improved team.

    OKLAHOMA ST 48 Iowa St 13 - ISU is 5-3-1 SU & 6-3 ATS and won the last meeting in ‘05 37-10 (-14) at home. OSU won the last time here (#25 in ‘04, 36-7, -17) and the HT is 5-1 ATS. Cowboys are 15-6 as a HF incl 4-0 ATS TY with the avg cover by 8 ppg. OSU suffered its first loss of the ssn LW vs #1 Texas (7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS) and is 9-2-1 ATS off a SU loss. QB Robinson is avg 211 ypg (69%) with a 15-4 ratio. OSU blasted the Horns rush def LW (came in all’g just 48 ypg) with 217 (5.9) and Hunter leads all B12 backs with 1,116 yds (6.6). WR Bryant has 51 rec (17.3). ISU is 10-18 as an AD and dropped its 6th straight LW but amassed 574 yds (gave up 509). QB Arnaud is avg 196 ypg (60%) with a 9-4 ratio (career high 371 pass yds LW). Both tms have played BU and A&M with OSU going 2-0 SU/ATS outgaining them by 126 ypg as ISU was 0-2 SU/ATS being outgained by 57 ypg. OSU has big edges on off (#10-85), def (#26-97) & ST (#11-61) and the last time the Cowboys were in a tough sandwich spot (TTech on deck) they waxed Baylor 34-6 (-17) holding them to a def ssn best 204 yds.

    Missouri 41 BAYLOR 20 - Mizzou is 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS vs BU in B12 play (avg 40 ppg & 270 rush ypg, 5.2). The Tigers bounced back in a big way LW hammering CU 58-0 with a 491-199 yd edge (CU had 64 yds on last drive of gm). QB Daniel is avg 334 ypg (77%) with a 23-6 ratio. BU is 1-9 SU/ATS on HC and just 2-11 as a HD (2-8 in B12). The Bears are on a 2-16 SU & 4-14 ATS run in B12 play. LW NU took care of the Bears (outgained by 147 ypg). QB Griffin is avg 177 ypg (59%) with a 9-0 ratio to go along with 554 rush yds (4.9) accounting for 66% of the entire Bear offense. Mizzou has a large off edge (#6-59) and has played the tougher sked (#33-49). BU is ranked #90 in our pass eff def allowing 234 ypg (63%) with an 11-7 ratio. The Tigers have gone 6-0 SU & ATS as a favorite outside of Columbia with the avg cover by 14 ppg. With the Daniel Heisman talk taking a back seat and a National Title shot out of the picture, MO still controls its own destiny for the B12 North Title. MO now takes on a BU squad that will extend its bowl drought to 14 yrs. HC Briles is moving the Baylor program in the right direction but Missouri will be irked at being the Bears’ HC opponent.

    MISSISSIPPI 24 Auburn 14 - Ole Miss has lost 7 in a row SU at home in this series and the visitor is 9-3 ATS. Tuberville is 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS vs his old team. LY Auburn had a 420-193 yd edge but only led 10-3 in the 4Q when Ole Miss was int’d in the EZ (17-3, -18). In Oxford in ‘06, Auburn had a 428-258 yd edge but only won 23-27 (-18’). Since firing OC Franklin, QB Burns has started the L/2 gms (both losses) and has avg 115 ypg pass plus 60 ypg rush (2 rush TD). RB’s Tate (538, 4.3) and Lester (230, 3. have been banged up lately. The Rebels are off an emotional win at Ark, but now they return to a friendly crowd. QB Snead is avg 209 ypg (54%) with a 12-11 ratio. UM is avg 162 ypg rush (4.4) and Aub has all’d 230 ypg rush (5. in the L/2. Aub is 6-2 ATS as an AD but is now on an 0-7 ATS run overall and UM is 3-10 ATS as a HF. Ole Miss legitimately could be 6-1 or 7-0 but is 4-4 with an excellent shot at a bowl bid while Aub may have the same record as UM, but seems to be packing it in for year after a sad 2H vs WV in which the offense produced just 35 yds and 0 pts. We side with the Rebels who have momentum and a much stronger offense (#31-89).

    WYOMING 27 San Diego St 20 - The HT has won 5 in a row SU (5-1-1 and 10-4-1 ATS) with 2 outright upsets & the SU winner is 18-1 ATS. LY WY was up 21-0 in the 2Q but SDSt scored w/1:06 left & got a 27-24 upset. WY moved to 0-7 ATS TY and was outgained 444-221 in their 54-7 loss to TCU. WY was down 31-7 when QB Sween took a cheap shot and is ? here (CS). The life went out of WY after he left as Crum fmbl’d on his 2nd series (only TO) and Stutzriem finished the gm. WY did finish with 113 yds rush (-36 yd in sk) vs a TCU tm that is ranked #1 in the NCAA in rush D. Moore led with 114 & is #2 in the MWC w/802 (5.1) incl 4 of the tm’s 5 rush TD. The QB carousel is last in the NCAA in pass eff avg 98 ypg (51%) with a 3-15 ratio. After being blown out the prev 3, SDSt went TD-for-TD vs Colo St LW before CSU went ahead w/:04 left in a 38-34 win. Lindley was back at 100% and, minus the SJSt gm (SDSt altered off), he avg 236 ypg (57%) with a 10-6 ratio. SDSt’s top rec (V. Brown) has almost 3x’s the rec’s of WY’s top rec on the yr! This is SDSt’s only gm on art turf, they’re traveling to the cold in a battle for the basement so look for WY to get its first ATS win of the yr.

    W MICHIGAN 41 E Michigan 20 - LY EM held the Broncos to just 199 yds forcing 6 TO’s & the 2 pts were the fewest all’d to WM S/’30.These 2 are separated by 102 miles on I-94. WM is 13-3 SU vs EM but last time here trailed 15-3 in the 4Q and after EM’s QB was injured they rallied for an 18-15 win (-15’). The Broncos have the offensive (#42-94) and D edges (#74-110). While WM is still in the hunt for the MAC West Title, EM is 1 of just 2 MAC tms that are eliminated from their div race. While EM is guaranteed a losing season, they do still have a chance to repeat as the Mich MAC Champ (EM, CM & WM). EM is off a 38-16 loss to Ball St (+25) and while they were only outgained 408-376 much of that came in the 2H after they were down 24-0. The Broncos are off a bye after losing to rival C Mich 38-28 as a 1’ AF despite having a 28-22 FD edge and only being outgained 524-520. WM QB Hiller is avg 315 ypg (69%) with a 25-5 ratio. RB West leads with 686 (5.2) and should have a good day vs an EM D that is all’g 217 ypg and 5.6 ypc. E Mich has covered 9 str as a conf DD dog with 3 outright wins.

    Tulsa 44 ARKANSAS 41 - Tulsa’s OC, Gus Malzahn, was the OC at Ark in 2006 and did not leave on good terms. Tulsa is playing on a short week (played UCF Sun night after press time) and is 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS on the road vs BCS conf schools, but Ark is off 4 SEC games with another on deck. Tulsa needs a win over a BCS opp to earn some credibility after playing a very weak sked (#120) up to this point. Tulsa’s explosive off is avg 56.6 ppg, but they did struggle their last AG vs SMU and could have lost that game if not for a dropped TD by the Mustangs late 4Q. QB David Johnson is avg 342 ypg (69%) with a 31-8 ratio and leads the nation in pass eff. WR Marion has 28 rec (27.0). Tulsa also has the #7 rush attack in NCAA (267 ypg, 6.1) led by RB Adams with 633 yds (5.9). Ark is off a 23-21 home loss vs previous HC Nutt and Ole Miss in which they actually outgained the Rebels 386-369. QB Dick is avg 223 ypg (55%) with an 8-10 ratio. Leading rusher Smith played LW after suffering a concussion vs Aub and rushed for 129 yds (6. and now has 920 (5.6). Ark is 10-3 in HC gms, has beaten TU 16 straight (9-7 ATS) and needs a win to have any shot at a bowl, so expect the Hogs to keep it close and maybe even burst Tulsa’s BCS bubble.

    Fresno St 27 LOUISIANA TECH 23 - Fresno leads the series 7-2 SU but is 2-5-1 ATS incl an 0-4 skid. FSU is in an 0-6 ATS slump, but its WAC hopes are still alive thanks to K Goessling’s school-record 58 yd FG as time expired to lift Fresno to a 30-28 comeback win over USU LW. LT is 2-1 SU/ATS vs Fresno in Ruston. Last time here (‘06), FSU (-12’) got a 33 yd TD run with :53 left to pull out a 34-27 win. Unlike the previous 3 gms where these two avg 59 ppg, LY was a def struggle. LT led 6-0 at HT but lost 17-6 (+12) as FSU pressured the QB all night long en route to 7 sks (6 in 2H). LT needed an off spark & the #1 QB job was turned over to Jenkins 2 wks ago after Bennett struggled to complete just 39% of his passes. While Jenkins’ comp % is better (49%), he’s avg just 58 ypg. LW, LT began 5 drives in Army territory but only scored twice & had just 9 FD’s & 152 yds for the gm in a 14-7 loss. FSU has nearly a 50-50 run/pass balance to its offense (216 ypg rush, 213 ypg pass) & has the edge here (#36-108). QB Brandstater is avg 213 ypg (63%) with an 11-5 ratio & FSU’s run game (#16 in the NCAA) is led by Mathews with 585 yds (5.6) & 6 TD’s.

    Hawaii 27 UTAH ST 20 - UH is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS having outscored USU by 32 ppg. LY UH turned a close 17-13 game in the 2Q into a 52-37 win (-39’). The Aggies’ 37 pts were the most scored by USU on the road S/‘02. Last time here (‘06), UH rolled 63-10 (-20’) outgaining USU 572-362 in 40˚ temps. USU is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Fresno LW after the Aggies scored a TD with :38 left to go up 28-27, only to fall on a 58 yd FG as time expired. QB Borel is avg 141 ypg (54%) with a 9-6 ratio & also leads the team with 424 yds rushing, while WR Nelson has 28 rec (12.5). UH has the edge on off (#98-114) & def (#73-98). QB Funaki is avg 134 ypg (56%) with a 6-12 ratio but it was Alexander who came off the bench LW going 17-22 for 205 yds & connecting on a gm winning TD pass with :20 left to lead the Warriors over Nevada. Whoever lines up under center for the Warriors TW should be able to iron out some kinks going up against an Aggie D rated #106 in the NCAA allowing 439 ypg.

    SOUTH CAROLINA 23 Tennessee 9 - LY SC got off to a slow start (down 21-0) but dominated the 2H. They blew numerous opp’s to win and despite a 501-317 yd edge, lost in OT on the road 27-24 (+3). LY SC WR McKinley had a career day vs Vols with 14 rec for 151 yds & 1 TD and he needs just 45 yds to become SC’s all-time rec leader. The visitor is 10-0-1 ATS in the series. Fulmer is 14-1 SU vs SCar and on a 4-3 SU run vs Spurrier (5-9 overall). UT’s running gm has been stuffed (avg only 78 ypg L6) which has put more pressure on new QB Stephens (136 ypg, but 0 TO’s in 5 sts). SC is fresh off a bye while UT is off another crushing defeat to rival Bama and Fulmer is once again on the hotseat with fans calling for his ousting. UT has covered twice as an AD but was lucky to cover vs UGA as they were outFD’d 29-10 and outgained 458-209. SC has a QB controversy with Smelley (182 ypg, 60%) and Garcia (129 ypg, 61%) and both could play. This is a battle of top 10 defenses and inconsistent offenses, but SC has the important home edge with 2 young QB’s battling to keep their teams’ post season hopes alive.

    USC 48 Washington 6 - The Trojans enter this gm off a crucial P10 win vs AZ and another big game vs Cal on deck. While their off has avg 457 ypg in ‘08, the def has been the story as they have our #1 ranking allowing just 216 ypg TY (8.1 ppg) incl a 188 yd performance vs a highly-potent Wildcat squad (avg 412 ypg entering LW). USC has covered 3 of 4 at the Coliseum vs the Huskies by a 25 pt avg but did struggle in Seattle LY winning by 3 despite outgaining UW by a 460-190 clip. Not much has gone well for a young Husky squad as they remain 1 of 2 tms in IA that have yet to win a gm (N Texas) after LW’s hm loss to ND where they did not cross midfield until 6:00 remained in the 4Q. UW HC Willingham has had mild success vs USC winning on 4 occasions during his coaching tenure (Stan & ND) but this will be a tall order especially with a def (#103) surrendering 480 ypg on the ssn. USC has won & covered their L/6 HC gms by a 29 ppg margin & while this gm looks to mirror the spread border of the USC/Stanford classic LY, it would be hard to believe that Carroll & Co would make the same mistake twice.

    CALIFORNIA 33 Oregon 27 - A crucial gm for both tms as far as bowl implications are concerned in a series where 4 of 5 have been decided by a TD or less. After a solid win LW in the desert vs ASU the Ducks go on the road for the 2nd consec gm where they have now dropped 3 straight ATS in that situation incl a defeat at the hands of USC earlier TY. With injuries to the QB position, the run gm has kept the Ducks alive as they have rushed for 279 ypg. LY trailing by 7 with the ball at the Cal5, UO WR Colvin took a pass to the half yd line where he fumbled into the EZ for a TB allowing Cal to hold on for their 1st victory in Eugene S/‘87 with UO having FOUR 4Q TO’s. After a disappointing loss a few wks ago to AZ, the Bears rebounded nicely LW against the Bruins as they int’d UCLA QB Craft 4 times incl 2 ret’d for TD’s. Cal has dropped 7 of their L/12 gms as a P10 HF, but we do expect the Bears to pull off another one against the rival Ducks.

    NAVY 27 Temple 17 - TU has all’d a combined 1,156 rush yds (6.6 ypc!) the L3Y vs Navy & the HT is 5-2 SU S/’91. Temple had a few extra days to prep for Navy’s triple option after playing Ohio on Tuesday, and has a bye next week. Despite no pass att’s Navy is off a blowout win over SMU that was led by 3rd string QB Dobbs who rushed for 224 yds & 4 TD’s in his first extensive action after 2nd string QB Bryant suffered a shoulder inj. Navy’s starting QB Kaheaku-Enhada has missed most of the season with a torn hamstring and will be ? for this one. TU QB DiMichele ret’d LW from inj showing some rust but led two 4Q drives to pull out a 14-10 win over Ohio. TU had only 46 yds after 3Q’s and finished with just 143 ttl yds. Navy has a large edge on off (#58-119) but TU has a large edge on D (#40-92) & ST’s (27-72). TU is all’g 142 rush ypg (3.5) and all’d 210 rush (3.6) to Army’s option in the opener TY. A Navy win clinches their 6th str bowl trip (school record).

    Kansas St 33 KANSAS 30 - 106th edition of the “Sunflower Showdown” as these tms have played every yr S/1902 (w/exception of 1910). The last time KU won 3 straight in this series was from 1988-’90 and the Jayhawks are just 3-11 SU/ATS. LY KU (+3’) beat #24 KSU 30-24 (1st W vs ranked S/‘03) & became ranked (#20) for the 1st time S/’96. In ‘06 here 6 KSU TO’s led to 30 KU pts in a 39-20 win (-2’). Mangino’s 1st IA coaching assignment was at KSU from ‘91-‘98. TT lit up the KU secondary LW (418 yds, 79%, 6-0) as they waxed the Jayhawks (outgained by 241 yds). QB Reesing is avg 310 ypg (69%) with a 19-8 ratio (3 int LW all in 2H). KSU lost to OU LW and has all’d 39 ppg & 513 ypg in B12 play. QB Freeman is avg 278 ypg (61%) with a 15-5 ratio. KSU is ranked #77 in our pass eff def allowing 241 ypg (59%) with a horrible 17-4 ratio while KU comes in at #26 (271 ypg, 59%, 16-9). KU does have the def edge (#66-83), but KSU has a huge ST (#2-67) advantage. This is a must-win for both as KSU needs 2 wins for bowl elig and has MO on deck while KU has trips to Lincoln and Columbia sandwiched between a HG vs #1 Texas.

    Michigan 23 PURDUE 20 - UM is 19-3 SU in the series & has held Purdue to 13 ppg. Mich has split their L/4 gms in W Lafayette with the losses by a combined 7 pts but has won 5 in a row SU in the series. LY Mich (only -5) dominated leading 48-7 before Purdue got 2 garbage TD’s. Both teams come in at 2-6 & must win out to go to bowling. UM is off their 1st home loss to their instate rival S/’90 as they were outFD’d 22-13 & outgained 473-252 and the Spartans missed 3 FG’s. UM’s struggling spread has more TO’s (24) than TD’s (17) TY. Wolves D has faltered all’g 37 ppg vs BCS conf foes & 460 ypg vs B10 teams TY. PU lost their 18th straight to a ranked tm, 17-6 to Minny as QB Painter (shoulder) was KO’d in the 2Q & the Boilers passed for a Tiller era low 109 yds. Tiller said he expects Painter to play TW & backup Siller (10-17 for 73 yds, 1 int, 4 sk vs Minny) was practicing at RB 2 weeks ago. Boilers have scored 3 off TD’s (all vs NW) in conf play TY. UM wins this postseason elimination game.

    Clemson 24 BOSTON COLLEGE 23 - LY BC upset #15 Clemson 20-17 in Death Valley with a 43 yd TD pass w/1:43 left stealing the ACC Atl Div crown. BC is 3-0 SU/ATS in the series with 2 OT wins. CU is 7-4 ATS as an ACC AD. CU started the year ranked #9 with hopes of winning the ACC Title but now need to win 4 of 5 just to become bowl elig with an interim coach guiding the way. The running gm remains inconsistent as CU is avg just 92 rush ypg (3.5) vs IA teams. QB Harper’s (122 ypg, 61%) shldr surg was successful and he is expected to return here, but it is ? if he or QB Korn will start. LW #23 BC was upset 45-24 by NC making the Tar Heels bowl elig for the 1st time in 4 yrs. QB Crane is avg 187 ypg (58%) with a 7-12 ratio including 3 int LW (1 ret for TD, 2 directly resulted in TD’s). True Fr RB Harris (PS#159) has rushed for 398 yds (6.2). Clemson has a history of winning games they’re not suppose to especially when everyone has given up on them.

    San Jose St 30 IDAHO 13 - SJSt is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in WAC contests vs UI & these two have avg just 38 ppg in the series. UI is coming off a 20-14 home win over NMSt LW, prompting HC Akey to exclaim, “That’s about a 750,000-ton gorilla that just got ripped off our backs today.” UI K Amancio hit a pair of 50+ yd FG’s (52 & 51) to break a 14-14 tie, helping the Vandals end a 23 gm losing streak vs IA foes & stopped an 0-9 ATS drought at home. UI is still in the midst of a current 3-14 ATS slump. QB Enderle is avg 172 ypg (53%) with a 15-11 ratio & he looks often for HB Williams who has 49 rec (13.0). SJSt QB Reed is avg 159 ypg (68%) with a 7-6 ratio but his production has fallen off in recent wks. WR Richmond has 46 rec (9.6). SJSt has a large edge on D (#31-118) as UI is #117 in the NCAA in ttl D (487 ypg) & scoring D (43 ppg) while the Spartans (#16 D in NCAA) have 27 sks (#4 in the NCAA). The Ihenacho brothers have been superb as Carl has 7 sks & Duke has 5 int. SJSt is 10-1 SU & ATS as an AF S/’98 & is currently on an 8-2 ATS run.

    Byu 41 COLORADO ST 20 - Last time here we used BYU as a 4H Newsletter & LPS and CSU has lost 7 of 10 SU vs the Cougs. The winner has won every gm by DD in MWC action (avg win by 22). BYU is 11-8 as a DD fav (1-3 TY) and is 11-2 SU in Ft Collins (avg win by 26). LY BYU led 35-9 when CSU got a 31 yd IR TD w/4:07 left for the backdoor (+21) and BYU ended the gm at the CSU17. BYU WR Collie tallied his 6th str 100 yd rec gm in what turned out to be a shootout vs UNLV. After BYU got a 6 yd TD pass with 1:46 left (2pt), LV’s Hail Mary was int’d in the EZ. Cougs were outFD’d 25-22 and outgained 463-454 but delivered an easy Winner on the Over as our Coll Ttls GOY, 42-35. QB Hall cont’s to pace the MWC avg 296 ypg (69%) with a 24-6 ratio. Collie leads the MWC with 60 rec (15.0), while TE Pitta has 50 (12.9). LW CSU QB Farris threw for a ssn best (vs IA) 296 yd (74%) with 3 TD incl the go-ahead 9 ydr w/:04 left. It was ruled inc but Fairchild chall and CSU left with a 38-34 road win (507-392 yd edge). Farris is avg 213 ypg (65%) with a 9-7 ratio. His top rec is Greer with 40 (17.9) and RB Johnson has 746 yds (4.6). CSU is 8-19 ATS in Nov/Dec gms & the Cougs are another week away from having their bubble burst, so look for them to get back to their blowout ways here.

    STANFORD 41 Washington St 6 - Both teams return to action off their 1st bye wks of the ssn. Stanford is off a last second 1 pt loss to UCLA knowing that it may have cost them a shot at bowl eligibility (Oregon, USC & Cal on deck). They are on a 12-4 ATS run vs the Cougs but have not been a DD fav S/’04 (covered 5 straight in that role). WSU has been the biggest embarrassment in IA as they have allowed 63+ pts in 4 of 5 conf gms incl a 69-0 (1st time shutout in 280 gms) hm loss 2W ago to USC in the Palouse where they failed to get past their own 45 yd line. The Cougs have been outgained (490-200) & outscored (54-9) vs IA opp’s as inj & poor recruiting classes have caused this downward spiral. They have had some success the L2Y vs the Cardinal incl a 561 yd performance in Pullman LY (4H LPS Winner). The visitor is 6-2 ATS with 3 upsets. While the Cougs should keep the Cardinal under the 63 ppg plateau (SU has failed to score over 36 pts in 37 straight), Stanford is rolling up 192 ypg (5.0) on the ground causing a huge line of scrimmage mismatch against a Cougar rush D giving up 6.7 ypc on the ssn!!

    Boise St 34 NEW MEXICO ST 31 - Boise’s BCS hopes are alive & well again TY. BSU leads this series 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS winning by 24 ppg (47-23 avg) but its wins in the series have been by 42 ppg at home but only 5 ppg in Las Cruces. The HF difference in this series has aided the host to cover by 22 ppg going 3-0 ATS since these two became WAC foes in ‘05. NMSt QB Holbrook is avg 295 ypg (67%) with a 16-10 ratio & is #10 in the NCAA in passing ypg. He has a pair of WR’s with over 45 rec each with Williams hauling in 54 (14.1) while Harris has caught 46 (9.9). RB Colston has given the Aggies an option on the ground with 353 yds (4.. BSU is 5-1-1 ATS in its 2nd consec AG & the Broncos have the edges on off (#37-68), def (#27-105) & ST (#25-90). QB Moore has been steady avg 262 ypg (71%) with a 15-4 ratio & while RB Johnson isn’t producing numbers on par to recent yrs, he still has 429 yds (4.6) and recorded his school-record 51st TD LW. BSU has the NCAA’s #4 scoring D at 11.3 ppg & has held 5 of its 7 opp TY to 7 pts or less! LW Boise’s D didn’t allow SJSt to record a FD until its last possession of the 1H.

    MISSISSIPPI ST 17 Kentucky 13 - LY UK was without their top 2 RB’s, top WR, had 6 TO’s, was off 3 straight ranked teams and lost outright at home 31-14 (-14). Last time here they pulled out a 34-31 road win (-1). MSU is 4-1 ATS prior to a bye but 0-6 ATS as a HF. MSU QB Lee has started the L/4 (tm 2-2) and is avg 123 pass ypg (62%) with a 2-3 ratio. RB Dixon has 599 rush (4.3). UK is very banged up with 5 defensive starters missing most of the week prior to their blowout loss to Florida plus they lost top RB Locke prior to LW & top WR Lyons 2 wks ago. UK has allowed 202 rush ypg (4.6) vs SEC tms TY. UK QB Hartline is avg 162 ypg (54%) with an 8-7 ratio and split time with WR/QB Cobb LW (9 of 18 for 78 yds, 52 rush vs UF). UK has the edges on off (#84-103), def (#35-52) and ST’s (#24-88). UK needs 1 more win to be bowl elig and this might be their best chance left, but once again the Cats are forced to face MSU with an inj depleted team.

    Florida St 21 GEORGIA TECH 17- Florida St has now won 12 in a row SU in the series but they have not met S/’03 (-23’ H, 14-13) and the last 5 have been decided by 6 ppg. LW FSU came back from a 1H deficit to defeat VT and claim a 1st-place tie with MD in the Atl Div and K Gano set a FSU record with his 13th consecutive FG. RB Smith, who was inj’d LW (elbow - CS), has 540 rush yds (5.0). QB Ponder is avg 200 ttl ypg. WR Easterling has 20 rec (11.6) and Carr has 19 (16.4!). FSU has the edge on both sides of the ball (off #30-60, D #13-36). QB Nesbitt is avg 140 ttl ypg. RB Dwyer (#1 ACC ttl rush yds) has 754 (5.4). While GT runs the triple option, WR Thomas has 27 rec (18.6!). GT ranks #117 in the NCAA with 14 fmbls. This should be a good defensive battle but GT now has to figure out how to bounce back from their upset loss (24-17 vs UVA) after their best start S/’90 while FSU is off to a 6-1 start.

    LSU 41 Tulane 13 - These schools are just 75 miles apart and LSU has won 16 in a row. LY LSU was favored by 41 at the Superdome but had a huge game against Florida on deck and only led 10-9 at HT with 127 yds before outscoring TU 24-0 in the 2H. TY LSU is in a similar situation with a Georgia/Alabama sandwich and is just 5-16 ATS in Nov HG’s. LSU is off a 52-38 loss to GA in which the rFr QB Lee threw 3 int (2 ret’d for TD’s). Tulane is off a 42-17 home loss to Rice in which nothing went right. RB Anderson only rushed for 12 yds on 4 carries and was inj in the 1Q and did not return (CS). Anderson is still #8 in NCAA avg 123 ypg (4.97). QB Moore has been dealing with a nagging thumb inj and was replaced by rFr Joe Kemp (PS#148) in the 2H. Moore is avg 211 ypg (59%) with a 7-8 ratio and will again be without his top deep threat Jeremy Williams (16.2, 5 TD), who remains out with a broken hand. LSU has large edges on off (#12-101), D (#28-82) and ST (#15-120) and has played the tougher sked (#31-90), but the Green Wave did cover on the road vs Bama (20-6, +30) earlier TY. LSU is 7-0 (5-1-1 ATS) off a SU loss under Miles and has not lost 2 in a row S/‘02. LSU knows this is a letdown gm but can’t avoid looking ahead to a must win gm vs Ala.

    Tcu 24 UNLV 20 - TCU is 3-8-1 ATS in Nov AG’s and LV is 6-12 ATS in Nov HG’s. LV dropped its 3rd heartbreaker LW after their Hail Mary was int. They went TD for TD with BYU and actually finished with 25-22 FD and 463-454 yd edges delivering an easy win on the Over as our Coll Ttls GOY, 42-35. LV cont’d its RZ domination and is still the only tm that’s a perfect 100% I/20. QB Clayton (231 ypg, 60%, 17-3 ratio) had a better day than BYU’s Hall hitting 26-40 for 321 yd w/a 1-1 ratio. His top targets are Wolfe (59, 12.1, 4 TD), Flair (39, 11.8, 4) and true Fr Payne (27, 15.4, 7). TCU is off a dominating 54-7 win over WY, outgaining the Pokes 444-221. WR Young had a TCU rec’d (& MWC best TY) 226 rec yd with 3 TD. QB Dalton (174 ypg, 60%, 6-2 ratio) had a ssn high 334 yd (73%) with a 4-0 ratio. UNLV is now 5-0 vs winning & BCS teams and 0-3 vs non-BCS teams .500 & under. TCU has their HUGE gm vs Utah on deck, on a Thurs Nite - and the last time in that spot they barely got by Colo St. The last time LV took on a ranked foe that was looking ahead (Ariz St), they pulled the outright upset. TCU is 2-7-1 as a conf AF, LV is 9-2 as a conf HD and look for the Rebs to keep this closer than expected.

    SOUTHERN MISS 31 Uab 28 - UAB is 0-8 SU (3-4-1 ATS) vs the Golden Eagles but 6 of the 8 have been decided by 7 or less (25-16 avg final). The visitor is 5-2-1 ATS. UAB was dominated at home LY, 37-7 (+10’), but did cover in their last trip here (lost 25-20, +14’). The Blazers are off a bye and have another on deck. QB Webb is a one man show, leading UAB in both passing and rushing, is avg 216 ypg (57%) with an 8-11 ratio and has 723 (5.3) rush yds with 7 TD’s. WR Forrest has 419 ttl yds (12.7). UAB is all’g 488 ypg and 36 ppg in conf play. SMiss is off a 36-30 loss to a Memphis team that was down to their 3rd & 4th string QB’s. RB Fletcher is #10 in NCAA avg 121 ypg. RFr QB Davis is avg 259 ypg (59%) with a 15-7 ratio (6-1 L/2 wks). True Fr WR Brown leads tm with 747 yds (16.2) and 9 TD’s and has caught all 6 of Davis’ TD passes the L/2W. The Eagles’ D is all’g 478 ypg and 38.8 ppg in conf and only has 7 sks in CUSA play (4 gms), plus struggled 2 wks ago vs an athletic QB (Rice’s Clement all’d 45 pts). SMiss is on an 0-5 SU/ATS run so look for a fresh, focused UAB squad to provide a tough HC challenge for the Golden Eagles.

    UTEP 41 Rice 37 - LY UTEP blew a 20 pt, 4Q lead all’g four 4Q Owl TD’s in the 56-48 loss. Rice has won 5 straight ATS (avg cover almost 14 pts) vs the Miners and are 8-3 ATS on the CUSA road and pulled the outright upset here in ‘06 (+8’). Rice is off a 42-17 win at Tulane where they ran for a ssn high 230 yds. RB Ugokwe ran for 111 (6.2) and now has 400 yds (4.9). QB Clement is the leading rusher with 402 (4.1) and is avg 295 ypg (66%) through the air with a 24-6 ratio. WR Dillard has 856 yds (15.0) and 14 TD’s. UTEP all’d 791 yds and 77 pts to Tulsa in their last gm (another up tempo, spread offense) and is all’g 38 ppg and 474 ypg overall. QB Vittatoe is avg 233 ypg (57%) with a 16-4 ratio. UTEP is 3-4 and needs a win to have any shot at a bowl, with 3 of their L/4 away. Rice needs 1 win to be bowl eligible, which would only be their 3rd bowl S/’61. The Miners are rested and the 6th win for bowl eligibility is usually the hardest to come by, so we like UTEP’s chances at home in the Sun Bowl.

    Utah 27 NEW MEXICO 13 - Last trip here Utah blew a 24-3 1H lead & NM scored the winning TD with 2:09 left. NM is 13-7 ATS in home finales but is playing for their 10th straight week while Utah is fresh off a bye (5-0 SU & ATS), but does have TCU in just 5 days. The favorite has gone 8-3 ATS & Utah is 25-7 SU in Nov (12-6 ATS Nov AG’s). NM has pulled 4 outright upsets in the L6Y & is 15-7-1 ATS in Nov. NM outgained AF LW (all’d just 228 yds) & somehow lost in a misleading final (4 TO’s, huge 14 swing - see pg 1). QB Gruner has struggled in the pass gm (avg 90 ypg, 52%, 3-5 ratio) but does have 225 yds rush (5.5). Long has also been inserting walk-on Smith (116 ttl yds) more the L2W. RB Ferguson has 865 yds (5.0), but if you take out NM’s 565 yd effort vs SDSt, they are avg just 277 ypg, but the defense has held 3 of 4 opp’s to 228 or less. 8-0 Utah is led by QB Johnson who is avg 203 ypg (66%) with a 13-7 ratio. The Utes are only allowing 264 ypg (+144) & have outscored MWC foes by 24 ppg. Both defenses (Utah #33 NM#43) are stout, but the Utes have the off edge (#25-92). Even with a huge Thur Night gm looming Utah needs to take care of things here if they want a shot at crashing the BCS party and NM is in danger of not being bowl eligible for the 1st time since 2000.

    OREGON ST 33 Arizona St 16 - With climate & turf differences it’s no surprise that the HT is on an 18-2-1 ATS run in this series. Dennis Erickson was the HC at OSU from ‘99-’02 & now leads an ASU squad into Corvallis searching for their 1st victory S/wk 2 as the Sun Devils have now lost 5 straight (0-4-1 ATS) for the 1st time S/’01 after falling apart against the Ducks LW. Rallying back from an early 19 pt deficit LY, QB Carpenter threw for 361 yds & 4 TD’s as ASU covered (-11) at home 44-32. However, in 2006 OSU rolled to a 44-10 (-2) victory as Carpenter struggled hitting just 9 of 27 passes in Reser Stadium. The Beavers return from bye here where HC Riley is 11-2 SU with an extra wk of prep in his tenure at OSU. Led by outstanding true Fr RB Quizz Rodgers (812 rush yds leads P10), the Beavers have outgained their opponents at hm by a 459-219 margin. With ASU travelling for a 2nd consec gm (0-9-1 ATS) & a 4th RG in their L/5 contests, we expect the favorite to cover their 6th straight in the series.

    WKU 41 North Texas 31 - Following the emotional NT 27-26 win LY at home, players from both tms met at midfield & a scuffle ensued. WKU did miss the game winning 38 yd FG w/1:00 left LY. WKU is off bye (11-4 SU) and in their last gm lost 24-20 to FAU while being outgained 399-317 and outFD’d 22-16. WKU is not only favored for the 1st time but is a DD favorite. WKU QB Wolke is avg 101 ypg (53%) with a 5-4 ratio. NT comes into this gm 0-8 (2-6 ATS) and is 1 of 2 tms still looking for their first win. They are off a 45-17 loss to Troy as they were outgained 547-338 and also had 4 turnovers. QB Vizza is avg 249 ypg (62%) with a 9-10 ratio. WR Fitzgerald became the all-time reception leader LW and has 74 rec (10.4). This gm matches up the NCAA’s 2 worst defenses but NT has played the tougher schedule (#36-107) and this could be their best shot at avoiding a winless ssn.

    ALABAMA 34 Arkansas St 17 - The calendar now says Nov 1 and the teams on top of the BCS standings start to look at every scenario. This spells trouble for a Bama tm that has been outscored 67-29 in 2H in their L/4 gms and is 3-18 ATS as a HF incl 1-7 under Saban. While ASU is just 2-5 SU off a bye under Roberts, it is a good situation as they are fresh and the Tide is in a 4 game SEC sandwich incl Tenn LW and LSU on deck. Alabama did have a 409-282 yd edge vs ULM LY in this spot but was upset (-24’) so they will put some time into this. They come in 8-0 (5-3 ATS) and are off a 29-9 win over Tenn in which they outgained the Vols 366-173 (36 rush) and outFD’d them 23-10. QB Wilson is avg 158 ypg (62%) with an 8-3 ratio and RB Coffee has 838 yds (6.6). ASU is 3-0 ATS vs ranked teams and in their last gm lost their 1st SBC gm TY to ULL 28-23 when ULL scored with :42 left in gm. Three of their last 4 gms are on the road. ASU QB Leonard is avg 211 ypg (53%) with an 11-3 ratio and has already guided the RedWolves to a win at Texas A&M to start this year. If this gm is played on paper Bama obviously wins big, but schedule, situation and a pesky offense keeps ASU within the number.

    LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 23 Fiu 16 - Louisiana-Lft is 5-0 all-time vs FIU with an avg win of 17 ppg (4-0 ATS). Both tms are 6-1 ATS and off byes. ULL (3-0 SU/ATS vs SBC) scored 14 pts in the last 5:00 to beat ASU 28-23 getting their last TD with :42 left in gm. ULL comes into this gm ranked #1 in the nation avg 312 rush ypg but was held to 189 yds by ASU. ULL QB Brown, in his first start (Desormeaux inj’d) vs ASU, had 253 yds and was 18 of 28 with 2-0 ratio. RB Fenroy has 970 ttl yds (7.5) and had his 21st 100 yd gm vs ASU. FIU (3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU vs SBC) had a 3 gm SU win streak come to an end with a 33-23 loss to Troy in their last gm. FIU QB McCall is avg 142 ypg (52%) with an 8-7 ratio. WR Hilton has 17 rec (28.4). While ULL has a huge offensive edge (#26-116), FIU has the better defense (#72-113) and has played the tougher schedule (#70-96). FIU is also outscoring their SBC opponents on avg 32-21 TY.

    ULM 24 Troy 23 - Troy is 7-2-1 vs ULM with the 2 losses & tie coming on the road. The HT has won 4 in a row SU (2-2 ATS) with the only recent game in Monroe being won by ULM 27-3 (+1’). ULM is off 29-28 loss to FAU on a TD w/:20 remaining. They were outgained 418-371 and were up 21-0 before TO’s let FAU back in the gm. ULM QB Lancaster is avg 191 ypg (60%) with a 12-3 ratio. They finish the ssn with a 3 gm road trip while Troy has 3 of their L/4 at home (makeup gm at LSU 11/15). SBC co-leader Troy is off a 44-17 win over NT outgaining them 547-338. QB Brown threw for school rec 40 comps and finished 40-50 for 391 yds and 2-0 ratio (35-42 for 334 yd in 1H). WR Jernigan has 48 rec (12.0) and left in 2Q vs NT with knee inj (CS). ULM Coach Weatherbie gets his team to peak late as they have gone 9-0 ATS the L/5 gms of the ssn the L2Y.

    Sunday, November 2nd - East Carolina at UCF - LY EC trailed 28-17 at the half but scored 28 3Q pts (UCF 5 3Q TO’s) in their 52-38 (+3’) win. East Carolina is 6-1 all-time vs the Knights. EC is 9-4 ATS on the CUSA road but UCF is 8-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in Bright House Stadium. UCF has played in the CUSA Championship gm 2 of L/3 and needs a win to keep their conf title hopes alive. Can UCF get the job done at home, or does East Carolina establish themselves as the team to beat in CUSA East?

    Tuesday, November 4th - Miami, Oh at BUFFALO - This game will be televised on ESPN2, marking the 1st ever National TV gm from UB Stadium. Miami is 10-0 vs Buffalo outscoring the Bulls on average 37-12. The last game here was strange as it was postponed due to a blizzard until Sunday and played in front of a handful of people and UB had a 278-260 yd edge (+7’) and got a 32 yd FG with 1:06 left for the backdoor cover (38-31). LY on the road UB got a TD with 2:54 left for the backdoor 31-28 (+6’). Both are still in the MAC East Title race.

    Wednesday, November 5th - Northern Illinois at BALL ST - NIll is 7-2 SU vs Ball St and won here 40-28 in ‘06. LY Ball St was at full strength and bowl bound taking on an inj depleted NIll squad on the road (-8) but the Huskies got the backdoor cover with 1:31 left (27-21). TY both are in the MAC West Title hunt as Ball St is 4-0 in conf play while NI is 4-1 and both still have games vs MAC West leader C Mich.

    Toledo at AKRON - Toledo is 8-1 SU in the series covering the last 6 but has not traveled here since 1998 and the Rockets are just 3-12 SU on the road. Akron is off a bye and owns the only MAC East SU win over a MAC West team TY.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 30 2008 2:37pm
11. 0 likes

    NC Power Sweep - NCAA

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    4* West Va. 27-17

    3* Texas A & M 34-20

    3* Florida 41-27

    2* N. Dame 31-17

    2* Wisconsin 27-24

    2* Nebraska + 31 (+) -45

    Underdog Texas Tech +6 37-34 (Texas Tech Outright)

    TEXAS TECH (+6) over Texas

    UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

    Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-128. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS

    to the incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:

    #1 Texas (8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS) is in the last leg of what Brown called “maybe the toughest 4 gm stretch in UT history.” Horns have won 5 in a row SU and in ‘06 here TT jumped out to a 24-7 lead but lost 35-31 (+10). LY UT won 59-43 (-6’) and Leach was furious with the officials after the gm. TT is 24-6 at home in Nov (7 straight wins). UT is 19-9-2 ATS in Nov. The HT is 7-3 ATS. UT looked its most vulnerable LW as they escaped OSU. Heisman frontrunner QB McCoy is avg 286 ypg (82%) with a 21-4 ratio (int & fmbl LW but set UT record w/18 straight comp). WR Shipley has 58 rec (12.7) & LW set a UT record w/15 rec (11.2). TT is 8-0 for the 1st time S/’76 after crushing KU LW (556-315 yd edge, 35+ pts in every gm TY). QB Harrell is avg 393 ypg (71%) with a 28-5 ratio and fellow Heisman hopeful WR Crabtree has 60 rec (13.2). TT is 13-6 ATS as a HD & is 4-4 under Leach with 3 outright upsets incl ‘02’s win over UT 42-38 (+6’). Both offenses are potent (TT#3-5), but UT has def (#6-23) & ST (#28-87) edges. Horns are ranked #21 in our pass eff def all’g 266 ypg (58%) with a 13-5 ratio & the Red Raiders come in at #40 (246 ypg, 63%, 10-14 ratio). Under Leach TT is 44-10 SU & 28-19 ATS in Lubbock as it’s always a tough place to play for opp’s. Keep in mind that UT has beaten 3 straight ranked foes, but at a neutral site (played in every yr) and 2 HG’s & the last time they played in a hostile B12 road environment they lost outright in College Station 38-30 (-7). FORECAST: TEXAS TECH 37 Texas 34

    4* West Virginia over CONNECTICUT - LY it was contender vs pretender as both tms had just 1 BE loss and a UC win would have given them the conf title. WV rushed for 517 yds and led 66-14 mid-4Q. UC is 6-1 ATS as a HD but WV has covered both trips here winning by a 34-15 avg. Both teams are off big wins as WV defeated Aub 34-17 last Thurs. Pat White played his 1st full game in a month and RB Devine (PS#2) rushed for 207 yds (12.1) vs a stingy Aub D. They now face a Conn def all’g 79.8 rush ypg at home. Conn bounced back from 2 straight losses defeating Cin 40-16. Conn started its 3rd string QB and put the load on RB Brown who finished with 150 (5.2). He is avg 166 ypg (5.6) & 14 TD’s. WV has slight edges on off (#35-46) and def (#38-41) but a huge edge on ST’s (#19-111). Even with Conn on an 11-0 run at home, WV’s offense looks to be on track and they have won by an avg of 29 ppg the L/4 in this series. FORECAST: West Virginia 27 CONNECTICUT 17

    3* TEXAS A&M over Colorado - The HT has won 3 str by an avg of 11 ppg. A&M is 10-3-2 ATS in Nov HG’s. The Aggies got a much needed victory LW in Ames but they still all’d 574 yds (gained 509). QB Johnson seems to be in complete control of the pro style offense avg 219 ypg (65%) with a 15-5 ratio (397 ttl yds LW). The Aggies have been outgained by 63 ypg but CU has been outgained by 157 ypg in B12 play. CU is in a downward spiral as LW they ran into a MO tm (outgained by 292 yds) off B2B losses and in desperate need of a win. The Buffs have now dropped 5 str ATS & were shutout for the 1st time S/’88. HC Hawkins isn’t a big fan of the 2-QB system but 2 wks ago pulled the RS off QB Hansen (259 ttl yds) as his son, Cody (142 ypg, 56%, 11-6 ratio) seems to have lost some confidence running the offense. CU is 3-9 as an AD, but A&M is just 1-4 SU & ATS at Kyle Field TY. Aggies come in with the better off (#45-100), but CU has the D edge (#55-101). With both tms playing a killer sked (CU#15, A&M#19) a win here could decide who goes bowling as CU is in the 2nd of a tough B2B road spot facing a tm that needs a solid win at home for the fans. FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 34 Colorado 20

    3* Florida over Georgia - Jacksonville. UGA will now face the last 2 BCS Champs in B2B games after their huge win at LSU and this is the 3rd straight ranked tm that UGA has faced. LY UGA RB Moreno rushed for a career high 188 yds & 3 TD’s as the Bulldogs pounded the Gators 42-30 with UF QB Tebow at less than 100% (-15 rush) due to a shoulder injury. Georgia had the edge of a bye LY prior to UF, something that Florida had before most of their 15 series wins (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS). Neither team is off a bye TY, but UF had a bye 2 wks ago and only faced a banged up KY tm LW which they demolished 63-5 to run their streak of reg ssn gms to a 9-1 ATS record and won as our Early Bird POW. UF is 8-1 SU but just 4-4-1 ATS vs the “Big 3” (Tenn, UGA, FSU) under Meyer. The top 2 QB’s in the SEC face off with Tebow avg 202 pass ypg (63%) with a 12-2 ratio and 227 rush (2. while Stafford is avg 243 ypg (62%) with a 12-5 ratio. UGA RB Moreno has 925 (6.2). UGA has suffered some major injs along both lines, but stood up well to LSU LW (though outgained 497-443) as they scored 14 pts off 2 IR TD’s. UF is certainly healthier at this point and after being less than 100% LY, Tebow will go full-bore in this one. This gm is a National Title elimination gm because the winner goes to the SEC Title gm with 1 loss and a shot at moving up in the polls while the loser finishes #2 in the East with no assurance of a BCS bid. FORECAST: Florida 41 Georgia 27

    2* NOTRE DAME over Pittsburgh - The Irish outgained Pitt 502-323 & outFD’d them 33-20 in their last meeting (‘05) & are now 12-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in the series. Pitt is in a BE sandwich but did upset the Irish here in ‘04 and the visitor has 3 straight outright upsets. LW ND crushed Wash 33-7 outgaining the Huskies 459-124. QB Clausen is avg 261 ypg (61%) with a 15-9 ratio & WR Tate has 31 rec (18.2). ND now faces a disarrayed Pitt defense that all’d 6 TD’s & 371 pass yds to a struggling RU offense. Pitt was stunned at home LW losing 54-34 to the Knights & knocking them from national rankings. Pitt had not all’d that many pts since a 60-6 loss to ND in 1996. QB Stull was KO’d in the 3Q (CS). RB “Shady” McCoy has rushed over 140+ yds the L/4 gms. Pitt has a slight edge on off (#29-32) while ND has def (#25-39) and ST’s (#48-81) edges as well as huge HF advantage. ND does have Catholic rival BC on deck but will not look ahead here and keep in mind ND knocked Pitt out of the national spotlight in ‘03 & ‘05. The Irish are 18-7 at Notre Dame Stadium in Nov & hand Pitt their 2nd straight loss in convincing fashion. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 31 Pittsburgh 17

    2* Wisconsin over MICHIGAN ST - UW is 3-8 SU in Nov AG & LY MSU had a 564-461 yd edge on the road but was SOD with 1:00 left at the UW38 in a 37-34 loss (+7). Last time here (‘04), MSU (+8) rolled to a 49-14 win over the #5 ranked & undefeated Badgers. UW ended their 0-4 conf start with a 27-17 win over IL in which they outrushed the Illini 163-88. QB Sherer hit 12-22 for 174 yds vs the Illini & outdueled the B10’s ttl off leader Williams with a 40-4 yd rush edge, 3-2 TD edge and had 0 int’s to Juice’s 3. With RB Hill limited (leg), Clay (PS#3) ran for 88 yds. Badgers allow 161 rush ypg (4.6) in conf play all’g Greene 217 & Beanie Wells 168. Despite missing 3 FG’s, MSU won in Michigan Stadium for the 1st time S/’90 as they outgained the Wolves 473-252 & outFD’d them 22-13. Ringer (NCAA #2 1373, 4.6) ran for 194 yds and Hoyer had his best outing of the season (17-29 for 282 yds & 3 TD). MSU allows 163 rush ypg (4.5) in B10 play. Wisky may have turned their ssn around while MSU might still be celebrating their rivalry win over ‘big brother.’ FORECAST: Wisconsin 27 MICHIGAN ST 24

    2* Nebraska (+) over OKLAHOMA - This used to be one of the top rivalries in the NCAA but they have only met 5 times in 10 yrs incl the B12 Title game in ‘06 (OU -3’, 21-7). HT is 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS. Pelini was the co-DC & DB’s cch under Stoops at OU in ‘04. Sooners destroyed KSU LW on the scoreboard as TO’s helpded them put up 55 pts in the 1H (most in school history) as they were actually outgained (KSU 550 yds). QB Bradford who is #2 in the Heisman race is avg 347 ypg (68%) with a 29-5 ratio. OU has dropped at least 35 pts on every opp TY outgaining foes by 197 ypg. NU got one step closer to a bowl berth LW taking care of BU (147 yd edge). QB Ganz is avg 288 ypg (70%) with a 15-6 ratio. Both offenses (OU#1-14) are very potent, but OU has the def edge (#18-49). Huskers are ranked #39 in our pass eff def all’g 218 ypg (60%) with a 7-5 ratio while OU comes in at #9 (267 ypg, 55% 13-12 ratio). NU is 5-10 as an AD and OU has won 22 straight home gms (13-7-1 ATS) but is 1-4 as a B12 HF of 20+ and their D has allowed 37 ppg L/3. NU has opened up their offense the L/3 and will do enough to stay within the number. FORECAST: Nebraska 31 (+) OKLAHOMA 45

    Thursday, October 30th

    Usf at CINCINNATI - The Bulls had a 27-14 FD edge LY at home but committed 8 TO’s in the 38-33 loss, as they gave up 38 1H points, the most by any Bulls team ever. The HT is 4-1 SU with the avg win by 13 ppg and Cincy has covered 4 straight. Both teams come in off disappointing losses. USF is in a similar situation as LY as Cincy handed them their third loss which KO’d them from the National rankings after peaking at #2.

    Saturday Games

    - BOWLING GREEN 27 Kent St 24 - Last time KSU visited BG (‘06) they won by 35 pts, largest road win S/‘73. LY BG won on the road 31-20 with Kent St being SOD at the BG3 twice. The visitor is 3-0 SU/ATS winning by 19 ppg. The tms’ off rankings are almost identical (KS #80-81), but BG does have the D edge (#80-100) despite playing the tougher schedule (#72-111). BG covered as a 7 pt AD LW, but was outFD’d 19-10 and outgained 278-168 as NI kept the BG offense off the field with a 17:14 TOP edge. BG is 2-11-1 ATS at home. For a 2nd straight week BG entered the 4Q with a lead but was held scoreless and lost. BG QB Sheehan is avg 220 ypg (65%) with a 12-5 ratio. Their top 2 rushers are Turner (318, 4. and Bullock (298, 4.5). Kent St beat Miami 54-21 the wk after Miami beat BG 27-20. Kent St came off a bye and finally played up to their potential as they outgained Miami 468-318, were +6 TO and led 47-7 at the end of 3Q. QB Edelman is avg 141 ypg (55%) with a 9-8 ratio and is the top rusher with 781 (5.9).

    Central Michigan 31 INDIANA 28 - CM is 0-3 all-time vs Indiana but nearly won in their last gm in ‘05 (20-13 loss, +7). CM HC Jones is 1-4 ATS as an AD vs BCS tms. FYI non-BCS tms that are favored over BCS teams are 6-4 SU but just 3-7 ATS TY. Minus QB Lewis (ankle) for a 2nd straight gm, Indiana broke a streak of 6 straight IA ATS losses (incl an outright loss to MAC member Ball St) with a 21-19 upset of NW (+7’), which kept the Hoosiers’ bowl hopes alive. Those same hopes should mean IU will give CM their full attention in this B10 sandwich. CM is also in a conf sandwich and with the goal of their 3rd straight MAC Championship determined in their final 3 games they may protect QB LeFevour. LeFevour missed the WM game and was knocked out for a few series vs Toledo. He is avg 231 ypg (67%) with an 11-3 ratio and leads the team in rushing with 329 (3.7). CM has the off edge (#40-74) but Indiana has the D edge (#85-99) despite playing the tougher schedule (#58-85).

    Air Force 20 ARMY 13 - AF is 17-2 S/‘89 holding Army to 7 or less 11x’s. Last trip here we used a Fri Nite Play on AF (-4’) and they blew out Army, 43-7. AF has covered 5 in a row at West Point. Army is 1-9 in Michie Stad finales with the avg loss by 16 ppg. AF became bowl eligible with its win over NM on Thurs night. It was tied at 10 at the half (NM 10 pts off TO) before AF rolled 23-10 despite being held to a ssn-low 227 rush yds with just 3 pass att. Since taking over as the st’r, Jefferson has thrown for 196 ttl yd (75%) with a 2-0 ratio (0 att LW) and has 218 rush yd (4.6). Fr RB Clark has 260 (4.5) the L/3. AF has covered 6 of 8 away from home vs non-conf and is 2-1 ATS as an AF under Calhoun. LW Army beat LT 14-7 thanks to Ian Smith, who scored his 1st 2 TD. QB Bowden moved to 5-0 ATS as the st’r and Army finished with 12-9 FD & 235-152 yd edges. Bowden is the #2 rusher (412, 3.3) and has 138 ttl pass yd (1st TD pass LW). The top rusher is Mooney with 874 (6.0). Army is 2-8 ATS as a HD (2-0 TY) and while they’re getting better at running the wishbone every wk, AF has done this for yrs. Army still has a chance for the CIC Trophy but AF is out (33-27 loss to Navy).

    Louisville 37 SYRACUSE 17 - LY was one of the biggest upsets in college football history as UL all’d 465 yds & 38 pts to a Syr tm that ranked near the bottom in every off category and lost 38-35 as 37 pt favs! Syr is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in the series and has covered as DD dogs vs UL the L3Y. LW UL upset #14 USF 24-20. NFL prospect QB Cantwell hooked up with WR Long (ret from inj) for 2 long TD’s and ran in another. The ground game has emerged avg 196 ypg (4. led by rFr Anderson avg 104 ypg (6.4) with 6 TD’s. They now face a Syr run D all’g 212 ypg (5.3). Syr is off a bye after their 17-6 loss to WV, a game in which they led into the 4Q. The bright spot for the Orange offense has been RB Brinkley who has rushed for 733 yds (5.6). The UL D is all’g 75 ypg rush (2.7). UL has large edges on off (#41-102) & D (#58-106) while Syr has a huge ST edge (#20-96). Teams tend to tune up on Syracuse & this will be an opportunity for the Cards (now 5-2 ATS) before a tough EOY stretch.

    Miami, Fl 24 VIRGINIA 20 - Legitimate revenge for UM as Virginia crushed them 48-0 in the Canes’ final game in the Orange Bowl LY. The home shutout was the 1st S/’74 & worst home loss S/’47. The dog is 4-0 ATS in this series with 3 outright upsets. Miami is 4-9 SU on the road while Virginia is 34-8 SU at home. UM has a bye next. Both teams need just 1 more win to become bowl elig. UVA started the season losing 3 of 4 gms but won their 4th straight and took over the #1 spot in the Atl Div LW as they rallied from an early 14-3 deficit to upset GT 24-17 (+14). UVA has now won 8 gms as a dog over the L2Y RB Peerman started off the season slow (inj’d) but has rushed for 541 yds (5.7) incl 118 LW. QB Verica is avg 183 ypg (67%) with a 5-9 ratio. UM has the edge on both sides of the ball (off #51-76, def #30-44). UM won their 3rd straight LW, a 16-10 win vs WF and 2nd consec Atl Div win for the1st time in 2 yrs. QB Marve, who is avg just 113 ypg (55%) with a 7-9 ratio, passed for 153 yds LW. RB Cooper has 476 rush yds (5.3). UM was embarrassed LY in front of dozens of former star Canes’ players who where in attendance and redeem themselves here.

    Iowa 24 ILLINOIS 23 - Iowa has won the L/5 & has held the Illini to 7 or less in 3 meetings under Zook. LY IL was off 2 straight wins over ranked teams & HD Iowa (+4’) won 10-6. Iowa is off a bye & both teams last played Wisky. The Hawks won 38-16 (-4’) in Iowa City with a 254-158 rush yd edge thanks to Greene’s 217 yds & 4 TD while IL (-2) lost 27-17 in Madison as Juice Williams threw 3 int & the Illini were outrushed 163-88. Williams (271 ypg, 59%, 18-10 ratio) still leads the conf in pass eff & total offense. WR Benn’s (46 rec, 16.1) school record 4 gm 100 yd receiving streak was stopped LW when he was shutout in the 2H. Illini are allowing 152 rush ypg (3.9) and Zook has hinted at lineup changes with vets not producing. Hawks QB Stanzi is #3 B10 pass eff avg 174 ypg (66%) with a 5-2 ratio in conf play. Greene (1154, 6.5) is the only IA player to start the year with 8 straight 100 yd gms. Hawks are #24 in pass eff D (192, 54%, 5-14 ratio). IL has home & off (#15-44) edges and is 4-4 with no gimmes left while Iowa has big D (#12-48) & ST (#22-89) edges.

    MINNESOTA 24 Northwestern 21- LY the Cats rallied from a 35-14 3Q deficit to win 49-48 in 2 OT as the Gophers missed a 2 pt conv for the win. These tms have avg’d 70 ppg the L/6. NU last won in the dome on HC in 2000, 41-35 on a Hail Mary TD pass. After finishing 1-11 LY, Minny is 7-1 & ahead of OSU in the B10 standings after LW’s 17-6 win at Purdue in which they outgained their 1st conf opp 321-226 (KO’d QB Painter 2Q). UM had been outgained by 115 ypg in B10 play prior. QB Weber (228 ypg, 67%, 10-3 ratio) has the conf’s top target in WR Decker (#3 NCAA-66, 12.6). Gophers lead, the NCAA in TO margin at +15. Cats were upset 21-19 at Indy as they lost 5 TO’s and QB Bacher (leg) and RB Sutton (wrist) were both KO’d. Sutton (776, 5.0), is scheduled to have surgery TW and it’s unknown when/if he will return while the struggling Bacher (#91 NCAA pass eff with 10-11 ratio) is ?. Cats are tied for conf lead in sacks (24). This is rare air for the Gophers who have covered their L/5.

    Duke 21 WAKE FOREST 20 - LY WF led by 25 but let Duke rally back as they barely pulled out the 41-36 win. WF has won 8 in a row SU by an avg of 34-20. Duke has nearly pulled upsets their L/2 visits here coming up just short 24-22 (+17) in ‘04 (Duke 423-410 yd edge). In ‘06 Duke had a 234-82 yd edge at half and WF needed a TD with 1:28 left to lead 14-13 (-20) and then blk’d a Duke 28 yd chip shot FG on the last play. Duke is 25-11 ATS as an AD incl their Big Dog POW upset LW, 10-7 (+10’) over Vandy. QB Lewis is #2 in the ACC avg 189 ypg (58%) with a solid 10-3 ratio. WR Riley has 38 rec (11.0). These 2 matchup nearly even on off (Duke #87-93) but WF has a solid D edge (#11-65). WF is 6-15 as a HF under Grobe and they have just 2 offensive TD’s in 4 ACC gms TY. Since LY WF has had 3 gms in which they rushed 50+ times and lost incl their 16-10 loss to UM LW. QB Skinner is #1 in the ACC avg 192 ypg (64%) with a 7-4 ratio. WR Boldin has 39 rec (11.1). Duke has kept it close the last few yrs but may finally get over the hump to pull the upset with a much improved team.

    OKLAHOMA ST 48 Iowa St 13 - ISU is 5-3-1 SU & 6-3 ATS and won the last meeting in ‘05 37-10 (-14) at home. OSU won the last time here (#25 in ‘04, 36-7, -17) and the HT is 5-1 ATS. Cowboys are 15-6 as a HF incl 4-0 ATS TY with the avg cover by 8 ppg. OSU suffered its first loss of the ssn LW vs #1 Texas (7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS) and is 9-2-1 ATS off a SU loss. QB Robinson is avg 211 ypg (69%) with a 15-4 ratio. OSU blasted the Horns rush def LW (came in all’g just 48 ypg) with 217 (5.9) and Hunter leads all B12 backs with 1,116 yds (6.6). WR Bryant has 51 rec (17.3). ISU is 10-18 as an AD and dropped its 6th straight LW but amassed 574 yds (gave up 509). QB Arnaud is avg 196 ypg (60%) with a 9-4 ratio (career high 371 pass yds LW). Both tms have played BU and A&M with OSU going 2-0 SU/ATS outgaining them by 126 ypg as ISU was 0-2 SU/ATS being outgained by 57 ypg. OSU has big edges on off (#10-85), def (#26-97) & ST (#11-61) and the last time the Cowboys were in a tough sandwich spot (TTech on deck) they waxed Baylor 34-6 (-17) holding them to a def ssn best 204 yds.

    Missouri 41 BAYLOR 20 - Mizzou is 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS vs BU in B12 play (avg 40 ppg & 270 rush ypg, 5.2). The Tigers bounced back in a big way LW hammering CU 58-0 with a 491-199 yd edge (CU had 64 yds on last drive of gm). QB Daniel is avg 334 ypg (77%) with a 23-6 ratio. BU is 1-9 SU/ATS on HC and just 2-11 as a HD (2-8 in B12). The Bears are on a 2-16 SU & 4-14 ATS run in B12 play. LW NU took care of the Bears (outgained by 147 ypg). QB Griffin is avg 177 ypg (59%) with a 9-0 ratio to go along with 554 rush yds (4.9) accounting for 66% of the entire Bear offense. Mizzou has a large off edge (#6-59) and has played the tougher sked (#33-49). BU is ranked #90 in our pass eff def allowing 234 ypg (63%) with an 11-7 ratio. The Tigers have gone 6-0 SU & ATS as a favorite outside of Columbia with the avg cover by 14 ppg. With the Daniel Heisman talk taking a back seat and a National Title shot out of the picture, MO still controls its own destiny for the B12 North Title. MO now takes on a BU squad that will extend its bowl drought to 14 yrs. HC Briles is moving the Baylor program in the right direction but Missouri will be irked at being the Bears’ HC opponent.

    MISSISSIPPI 24 Auburn 14 - Ole Miss has lost 7 in a row SU at home in this series and the visitor is 9-3 ATS. Tuberville is 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS vs his old team. LY Auburn had a 420-193 yd edge but only led 10-3 in the 4Q when Ole Miss was int’d in the EZ (17-3, -18). In Oxford in ‘06, Auburn had a 428-258 yd edge but only won 23-27 (-18’). Since firing OC Franklin, QB Burns has started the L/2 gms (both losses) and has avg 115 ypg pass plus 60 ypg rush (2 rush TD). RB’s Tate (538, 4.3) and Lester (230, 3. have been banged up lately. The Rebels are off an emotional win at Ark, but now they return to a friendly crowd. QB Snead is avg 209 ypg (54%) with a 12-11 ratio. UM is avg 162 ypg rush (4.4) and Aub has all’d 230 ypg rush (5. in the L/2. Aub is 6-2 ATS as an AD but is now on an 0-7 ATS run overall and UM is 3-10 ATS as a HF. Ole Miss legitimately could be 6-1 or 7-0 but is 4-4 with an excellent shot at a bowl bid while Aub may have the same record as UM, but seems to be packing it in for year after a sad 2H vs WV in which the offense produced just 35 yds and 0 pts. We side with the Rebels who have momentum and a much stronger offense (#31-89).

    WYOMING 27 San Diego St 20 - The HT has won 5 in a row SU (5-1-1 and 10-4-1 ATS) with 2 outright upsets & the SU winner is 18-1 ATS. LY WY was up 21-0 in the 2Q but SDSt scored w/1:06 left & got a 27-24 upset. WY moved to 0-7 ATS TY and was outgained 444-221 in their 54-7 loss to TCU. WY was down 31-7 when QB Sween took a cheap shot and is ? here (CS). The life went out of WY after he left as Crum fmbl’d on his 2nd series (only TO) and Stutzriem finished the gm. WY did finish with 113 yds rush (-36 yd in sk) vs a TCU tm that is ranked #1 in the NCAA in rush D. Moore led with 114 & is #2 in the MWC w/802 (5.1) incl 4 of the tm’s 5 rush TD. The QB carousel is last in the NCAA in pass eff avg 98 ypg (51%) with a 3-15 ratio. After being blown out the prev 3, SDSt went TD-for-TD vs Colo St LW before CSU went ahead w/:04 left in a 38-34 win. Lindley was back at 100% and, minus the SJSt gm (SDSt altered off), he avg 236 ypg (57%) with a 10-6 ratio. SDSt’s top rec (V. Brown) has almost 3x’s the rec’s of WY’s top rec on the yr! This is SDSt’s only gm on art turf, they’re traveling to the cold in a battle for the basement so look for WY to get its first ATS win of the yr.

    W MICHIGAN 41 E Michigan 20 - LY EM held the Broncos to just 199 yds forcing 6 TO’s & the 2 pts were the fewest all’d to WM S/’30.These 2 are separated by 102 miles on I-94. WM is 13-3 SU vs EM but last time here trailed 15-3 in the 4Q and after EM’s QB was injured they rallied for an 18-15 win (-15’). The Broncos have the offensive (#42-94) and D edges (#74-110). While WM is still in the hunt for the MAC West Title, EM is 1 of just 2 MAC tms that are eliminated from their div race. While EM is guaranteed a losing season, they do still have a chance to repeat as the Mich MAC Champ (EM, CM & WM). EM is off a 38-16 loss to Ball St (+25) and while they were only outgained 408-376 much of that came in the 2H after they were down 24-0. The Broncos are off a bye after losing to rival C Mich 38-28 as a 1’ AF despite having a 28-22 FD edge and only being outgained 524-520. WM QB Hiller is avg 315 ypg (69%) with a 25-5 ratio. RB West leads with 686 (5.2) and should have a good day vs an EM D that is all’g 217 ypg and 5.6 ypc. E Mich has covered 9 str as a conf DD dog with 3 outright wins.

    Tulsa 44 ARKANSAS 41 - Tulsa’s OC, Gus Malzahn, was the OC at Ark in 2006 and did not leave on good terms. Tulsa is playing on a short week (played UCF Sun night after press time) and is 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS on the road vs BCS conf schools, but Ark is off 4 SEC games with another on deck. Tulsa needs a win over a BCS opp to earn some credibility after playing a very weak sked (#120) up to this point. Tulsa’s explosive off is avg 56.6 ppg, but they did struggle their last AG vs SMU and could have lost that game if not for a dropped TD by the Mustangs late 4Q. QB David Johnson is avg 342 ypg (69%) with a 31-8 ratio and leads the nation in pass eff. WR Marion has 28 rec (27.0). Tulsa also has the #7 rush attack in NCAA (267 ypg, 6.1) led by RB Adams with 633 yds (5.9). Ark is off a 23-21 home loss vs previous HC Nutt and Ole Miss in which they actually outgained the Rebels 386-369. QB Dick is avg 223 ypg (55%) with an 8-10 ratio. Leading rusher Smith played LW after suffering a concussion vs Aub and rushed for 129 yds (6. and now has 920 (5.6). Ark is 10-3 in HC gms, has beaten TU 16 straight (9-7 ATS) and needs a win to have any shot at a bowl, so expect the Hogs to keep it close and maybe even burst Tulsa’s BCS bubble.

    Fresno St 27 LOUISIANA TECH 23 - Fresno leads the series 7-2 SU but is 2-5-1 ATS incl an 0-4 skid. FSU is in an 0-6 ATS slump, but its WAC hopes are still alive thanks to K Goessling’s school-record 58 yd FG as time expired to lift Fresno to a 30-28 comeback win over USU LW. LT is 2-1 SU/ATS vs Fresno in Ruston. Last time here (‘06), FSU (-12’) got a 33 yd TD run with :53 left to pull out a 34-27 win. Unlike the previous 3 gms where these two avg 59 ppg, LY was a def struggle. LT led 6-0 at HT but lost 17-6 (+12) as FSU pressured the QB all night long en route to 7 sks (6 in 2H). LT needed an off spark & the #1 QB job was turned over to Jenkins 2 wks ago after Bennett struggled to complete just 39% of his passes. While Jenkins’ comp % is better (49%), he’s avg just 58 ypg. LW, LT began 5 drives in Army territory but only scored twice & had just 9 FD’s & 152 yds for the gm in a 14-7 loss. FSU has nearly a 50-50 run/pass balance to its offense (216 ypg rush, 213 ypg pass) & has the edge here (#36-108). QB Brandstater is avg 213 ypg (63%) with an 11-5 ratio & FSU’s run game (#16 in the NCAA) is led by Mathews with 585 yds (5.6) & 6 TD’s.

    Hawaii 27 UTAH ST 20 - UH is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS having outscored USU by 32 ppg. LY UH turned a close 17-13 game in the 2Q into a 52-37 win (-39’). The Aggies’ 37 pts were the most scored by USU on the road S/‘02. Last time here (‘06), UH rolled 63-10 (-20’) outgaining USU 572-362 in 40˚ temps. USU is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Fresno LW after the Aggies scored a TD with :38 left to go up 28-27, only to fall on a 58 yd FG as time expired. QB Borel is avg 141 ypg (54%) with a 9-6 ratio & also leads the team with 424 yds rushing, while WR Nelson has 28 rec (12.5). UH has the edge on off (#98-114) & def (#73-98). QB Funaki is avg 134 ypg (56%) with a 6-12 ratio but it was Alexander who came off the bench LW going 17-22 for 205 yds & connecting on a gm winning TD pass with :20 left to lead the Warriors over Nevada. Whoever lines up under center for the Warriors TW should be able to iron out some kinks going up against an Aggie D rated #106 in the NCAA allowing 439 ypg.

    SOUTH CAROLINA 23 Tennessee 9 - LY SC got off to a slow start (down 21-0) but dominated the 2H. They blew numerous opp’s to win and despite a 501-317 yd edge, lost in OT on the road 27-24 (+3). LY SC WR McKinley had a career day vs Vols with 14 rec for 151 yds & 1 TD and he needs just 45 yds to become SC’s all-time rec leader. The visitor is 10-0-1 ATS in the series. Fulmer is 14-1 SU vs SCar and on a 4-3 SU run vs Spurrier (5-9 overall). UT’s running gm has been stuffed (avg only 78 ypg L6) which has put more pressure on new QB Stephens (136 ypg, but 0 TO’s in 5 sts). SC is fresh off a bye while UT is off another crushing defeat to rival Bama and Fulmer is once again on the hotseat with fans calling for his ousting. UT has covered twice as an AD but was lucky to cover vs UGA as they were outFD’d 29-10 and outgained 458-209. SC has a QB controversy with Smelley (182 ypg, 60%) and Garcia (129 ypg, 61%) and both could play. This is a battle of top 10 defenses and inconsistent offenses, but SC has the important home edge with 2 young QB’s battling to keep their teams’ post season hopes alive.

    USC 48 Washington 6 - The Trojans enter this gm off a crucial P10 win vs AZ and another big game vs Cal on deck. While their off has avg 457 ypg in ‘08, the def has been the story as they have our #1 ranking allowing just 216 ypg TY (8.1 ppg) incl a 188 yd performance vs a highly-potent Wildcat squad (avg 412 ypg entering LW). USC has covered 3 of 4 at the Coliseum vs the Huskies by a 25 pt avg but did struggle in Seattle LY winning by 3 despite outgaining UW by a 460-190 clip. Not much has gone well for a young Husky squad as they remain 1 of 2 tms in IA that have yet to win a gm (N Texas) after LW’s hm loss to ND where they did not cross midfield until 6:00 remained in the 4Q. UW HC Willingham has had mild success vs USC winning on 4 occasions during his coaching tenure (Stan & ND) but this will be a tall order especially with a def (#103) surrendering 480 ypg on the ssn. USC has won & covered their L/6 HC gms by a 29 ppg margin & while this gm looks to mirror the spread border of the USC/Stanford classic LY, it would be hard to believe that Carroll & Co would make the same mistake twice.

    CALIFORNIA 33 Oregon 27 - A crucial gm for both tms as far as bowl implications are concerned in a series where 4 of 5 have been decided by a TD or less. After a solid win LW in the desert vs ASU the Ducks go on the road for the 2nd consec gm where they have now dropped 3 straight ATS in that situation incl a defeat at the hands of USC earlier TY. With injuries to the QB position, the run gm has kept the Ducks alive as they have rushed for 279 ypg. LY trailing by 7 with the ball at the Cal5, UO WR Colvin took a pass to the half yd line where he fumbled into the EZ for a TB allowing Cal to hold on for their 1st victory in Eugene S/‘87 with UO having FOUR 4Q TO’s. After a disappointing loss a few wks ago to AZ, the Bears rebounded nicely LW against the Bruins as they int’d UCLA QB Craft 4 times incl 2 ret’d for TD’s. Cal has dropped 7 of their L/12 gms as a P10 HF, but we do expect the Bears to pull off another one against the rival Ducks.

    NAVY 27 Temple 17 - TU has all’d a combined 1,156 rush yds (6.6 ypc!) the L3Y vs Navy & the HT is 5-2 SU S/’91. Temple had a few extra days to prep for Navy’s triple option after playing Ohio on Tuesday, and has a bye next week. Despite no pass att’s Navy is off a blowout win over SMU that was led by 3rd string QB Dobbs who rushed for 224 yds & 4 TD’s in his first extensive action after 2nd string QB Bryant suffered a shoulder inj. Navy’s starting QB Kaheaku-Enhada has missed most of the season with a torn hamstring and will be ? for this one. TU QB DiMichele ret’d LW from inj showing some rust but led two 4Q drives to pull out a 14-10 win over Ohio. TU had only 46 yds after 3Q’s and finished with just 143 ttl yds. Navy has a large edge on off (#58-119) but TU has a large edge on D (#40-92) & ST’s (27-72). TU is all’g 142 rush ypg (3.5) and all’d 210 rush (3.6) to Army’s option in the opener TY. A Navy win clinches their 6th str bowl trip (school record).

    Kansas St 33 KANSAS 30 - 106th edition of the “Sunflower Showdown” as these tms have played every yr S/1902 (w/exception of 1910). The last time KU won 3 straight in this series was from 1988-’90 and the Jayhawks are just 3-11 SU/ATS. LY KU (+3’) beat #24 KSU 30-24 (1st W vs ranked S/‘03) & became ranked (#20) for the 1st time S/’96. In ‘06 here 6 KSU TO’s led to 30 KU pts in a 39-20 win (-2’). Mangino’s 1st IA coaching assignment was at KSU from ‘91-‘98. TT lit up the KU secondary LW (418 yds, 79%, 6-0) as they waxed the Jayhawks (outgained by 241 yds). QB Reesing is avg 310 ypg (69%) with a 19-8 ratio (3 int LW all in 2H). KSU lost to OU LW and has all’d 39 ppg & 513 ypg in B12 play. QB Freeman is avg 278 ypg (61%) with a 15-5 ratio. KSU is ranked #77 in our pass eff def allowing 241 ypg (59%) with a horrible 17-4 ratio while KU comes in at #26 (271 ypg, 59%, 16-9). KU does have the def edge (#66-83), but KSU has a huge ST (#2-67) advantage. This is a must-win for both as KSU needs 2 wins for bowl elig and has MO on deck while KU has trips to Lincoln and Columbia sandwiched between a HG vs #1 Texas.

    Michigan 23 PURDUE 20 - UM is 19-3 SU in the series & has held Purdue to 13 ppg. Mich has split their L/4 gms in W Lafayette with the losses by a combined 7 pts but has won 5 in a row SU in the series. LY Mich (only -5) dominated leading 48-7 before Purdue got 2 garbage TD’s. Both teams come in at 2-6 & must win out to go to bowling. UM is off their 1st home loss to their instate rival S/’90 as they were outFD’d 22-13 & outgained 473-252 and the Spartans missed 3 FG’s. UM’s struggling spread has more TO’s (24) than TD’s (17) TY. Wolves D has faltered all’g 37 ppg vs BCS conf foes & 460 ypg vs B10 teams TY. PU lost their 18th straight to a ranked tm, 17-6 to Minny as QB Painter (shoulder) was KO’d in the 2Q & the Boilers passed for a Tiller era low 109 yds. Tiller said he expects Painter to play TW & backup Siller (10-17 for 73 yds, 1 int, 4 sk vs Minny) was practicing at RB 2 weeks ago. Boilers have scored 3 off TD’s (all vs NW) in conf play TY. UM wins this postseason elimination game.

    Clemson 24 BOSTON COLLEGE 23 - LY BC upset #15 Clemson 20-17 in Death Valley with a 43 yd TD pass w/1:43 left stealing the ACC Atl Div crown. BC is 3-0 SU/ATS in the series with 2 OT wins. CU is 7-4 ATS as an ACC AD. CU started the year ranked #9 with hopes of winning the ACC Title but now need to win 4 of 5 just to become bowl elig with an interim coach guiding the way. The running gm remains inconsistent as CU is avg just 92 rush ypg (3.5) vs IA teams. QB Harper’s (122 ypg, 61%) shldr surg was successful and he is expected to return here, but it is ? if he or QB Korn will start. LW #23 BC was upset 45-24 by NC making the Tar Heels bowl elig for the 1st time in 4 yrs. QB Crane is avg 187 ypg (58%) with a 7-12 ratio including 3 int LW (1 ret for TD, 2 directly resulted in TD’s). True Fr RB Harris (PS#159) has rushed for 398 yds (6.2). Clemson has a history of winning games they’re not suppose to especially when everyone has given up on them.

    San Jose St 30 IDAHO 13 - SJSt is 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in WAC contests vs UI & these two have avg just 38 ppg in the series. UI is coming off a 20-14 home win over NMSt LW, prompting HC Akey to exclaim, “That’s about a 750,000-ton gorilla that just got ripped off our backs today.” UI K Amancio hit a pair of 50+ yd FG’s (52 & 51) to break a 14-14 tie, helping the Vandals end a 23 gm losing streak vs IA foes & stopped an 0-9 ATS drought at home. UI is still in the midst of a current 3-14 ATS slump. QB Enderle is avg 172 ypg (53%) with a 15-11 ratio & he looks often for HB Williams who has 49 rec (13.0). SJSt QB Reed is avg 159 ypg (68%) with a 7-6 ratio but his production has fallen off in recent wks. WR Richmond has 46 rec (9.6). SJSt has a large edge on D (#31-118) as UI is #117 in the NCAA in ttl D (487 ypg) & scoring D (43 ppg) while the Spartans (#16 D in NCAA) have 27 sks (#4 in the NCAA). The Ihenacho brothers have been superb as Carl has 7 sks & Duke has 5 int. SJSt is 10-1 SU & ATS as an AF S/’98 & is currently on an 8-2 ATS run.

    Byu 41 COLORADO ST 20 - Last time here we used BYU as a 4H Newsletter & LPS and CSU has lost 7 of 10 SU vs the Cougs. The winner has won every gm by DD in MWC action (avg win by 22). BYU is 11-8 as a DD fav (1-3 TY) and is 11-2 SU in Ft Collins (avg win by 26). LY BYU led 35-9 when CSU got a 31 yd IR TD w/4:07 left for the backdoor (+21) and BYU ended the gm at the CSU17. BYU WR Collie tallied his 6th str 100 yd rec gm in what turned out to be a shootout vs UNLV. After BYU got a 6 yd TD pass with 1:46 left (2pt), LV’s Hail Mary was int’d in the EZ. Cougs were outFD’d 25-22 and outgained 463-454 but delivered an easy Winner on the Over as our Coll Ttls GOY, 42-35. QB Hall cont’s to pace the MWC avg 296 ypg (69%) with a 24-6 ratio. Collie leads the MWC with 60 rec (15.0), while TE Pitta has 50 (12.9). LW CSU QB Farris threw for a ssn best (vs IA) 296 yd (74%) with 3 TD incl the go-ahead 9 ydr w/:04 left. It was ruled inc but Fairchild chall and CSU left with a 38-34 road win (507-392 yd edge). Farris is avg 213 ypg (65%) with a 9-7 ratio. His top rec is Greer with 40 (17.9) and RB Johnson has 746 yds (4.6). CSU is 8-19 ATS in Nov/Dec gms & the Cougs are another week away from having their bubble burst, so look for them to get back to their blowout ways here.

    STANFORD 41 Washington St 6 - Both teams return to action off their 1st bye wks of the ssn. Stanford is off a last second 1 pt loss to UCLA knowing that it may have cost them a shot at bowl eligibility (Oregon, USC & Cal on deck). They are on a 12-4 ATS run vs the Cougs but have not been a DD fav S/’04 (covered 5 straight in that role). WSU has been the biggest embarrassment in IA as they have allowed 63+ pts in 4 of 5 conf gms incl a 69-0 (1st time shutout in 280 gms) hm loss 2W ago to USC in the Palouse where they failed to get past their own 45 yd line. The Cougs have been outgained (490-200) & outscored (54-9) vs IA opp’s as inj & poor recruiting classes have caused this downward spiral. They have had some success the L2Y vs the Cardinal incl a 561 yd performance in Pullman LY (4H LPS Winner). The visitor is 6-2 ATS with 3 upsets. While the Cougs should keep the Cardinal under the 63 ppg plateau (SU has failed to score over 36 pts in 37 straight), Stanford is rolling up 192 ypg (5.0) on the ground causing a huge line of scrimmage mismatch against a Cougar rush D giving up 6.7 ypc on the ssn!!

    Boise St 34 NEW MEXICO ST 31 - Boise’s BCS hopes are alive & well again TY. BSU leads this series 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS winning by 24 ppg (47-23 avg) but its wins in the series have been by 42 ppg at home but only 5 ppg in Las Cruces. The HF difference in this series has aided the host to cover by 22 ppg going 3-0 ATS since these two became WAC foes in ‘05. NMSt QB Holbrook is avg 295 ypg (67%) with a 16-10 ratio & is #10 in the NCAA in passing ypg. He has a pair of WR’s with over 45 rec each with Williams hauling in 54 (14.1) while Harris has caught 46 (9.9). RB Colston has given the Aggies an option on the ground with 353 yds (4.. BSU is 5-1-1 ATS in its 2nd consec AG & the Broncos have the edges on off (#37-68), def (#27-105) & ST (#25-90). QB Moore has been steady avg 262 ypg (71%) with a 15-4 ratio & while RB Johnson isn’t producing numbers on par to recent yrs, he still has 429 yds (4.6) and recorded his school-record 51st TD LW. BSU has the NCAA’s #4 scoring D at 11.3 ppg & has held 5 of its 7 opp TY to 7 pts or less! LW Boise’s D didn’t allow SJSt to record a FD until its last possession of the 1H.

    MISSISSIPPI ST 17 Kentucky 13 - LY UK was without their top 2 RB’s, top WR, had 6 TO’s, was off 3 straight ranked teams and lost outright at home 31-14 (-14). Last time here they pulled out a 34-31 road win (-1). MSU is 4-1 ATS prior to a bye but 0-6 ATS as a HF. MSU QB Lee has started the L/4 (tm 2-2) and is avg 123 pass ypg (62%) with a 2-3 ratio. RB Dixon has 599 rush (4.3). UK is very banged up with 5 defensive starters missing most of the week prior to their blowout loss to Florida plus they lost top RB Locke prior to LW & top WR Lyons 2 wks ago. UK has allowed 202 rush ypg (4.6) vs SEC tms TY. UK QB Hartline is avg 162 ypg (54%) with an 8-7 ratio and split time with WR/QB Cobb LW (9 of 18 for 78 yds, 52 rush vs UF). UK has the edges on off (#84-103), def (#35-52) and ST’s (#24-88). UK needs 1 more win to be bowl elig and this might be their best chance left, but once again the Cats are forced to face MSU with an inj depleted team.

    Florida St 21 GEORGIA TECH 17- Florida St has now won 12 in a row SU in the series but they have not met S/’03 (-23’ H, 14-13) and the last 5 have been decided by 6 ppg. LW FSU came back from a 1H deficit to defeat VT and claim a 1st-place tie with MD in the Atl Div and K Gano set a FSU record with his 13th consecutive FG. RB Smith, who was inj’d LW (elbow - CS), has 540 rush yds (5.0). QB Ponder is avg 200 ttl ypg. WR Easterling has 20 rec (11.6) and Carr has 19 (16.4!). FSU has the edge on both sides of the ball (off #30-60, D #13-36). QB Nesbitt is avg 140 ttl ypg. RB Dwyer (#1 ACC ttl rush yds) has 754 (5.4). While GT runs the triple option, WR Thomas has 27 rec (18.6!). GT ranks #117 in the NCAA with 14 fmbls. This should be a good defensive battle but GT now has to figure out how to bounce back from their upset loss (24-17 vs UVA) after their best start S/’90 while FSU is off to a 6-1 start.

    LSU 41 Tulane 13 - These schools are just 75 miles apart and LSU has won 16 in a row. LY LSU was favored by 41 at the Superdome but had a huge game against Florida on deck and only led 10-9 at HT with 127 yds before outscoring TU 24-0 in the 2H. TY LSU is in a similar situation with a Georgia/Alabama sandwich and is just 5-16 ATS in Nov HG’s. LSU is off a 52-38 loss to GA in which the rFr QB Lee threw 3 int (2 ret’d for TD’s). Tulane is off a 42-17 home loss to Rice in which nothing went right. RB Anderson only rushed for 12 yds on 4 carries and was inj in the 1Q and did not return (CS). Anderson is still #8 in NCAA avg 123 ypg (4.97). QB Moore has been dealing with a nagging thumb inj and was replaced by rFr Joe Kemp (PS#148) in the 2H. Moore is avg 211 ypg (59%) with a 7-8 ratio and will again be without his top deep threat Jeremy Williams (16.2, 5 TD), who remains out with a broken hand. LSU has large edges on off (#12-101), D (#28-82) and ST (#15-120) and has played the tougher sked (#31-90), but the Green Wave did cover on the road vs Bama (20-6, +30) earlier TY. LSU is 7-0 (5-1-1 ATS) off a SU loss under Miles and has not lost 2 in a row S/‘02. LSU knows this is a letdown gm but can’t avoid looking ahead to a must win gm vs Ala.

    Tcu 24 UNLV 20 - TCU is 3-8-1 ATS in Nov AG’s and LV is 6-12 ATS in Nov HG’s. LV dropped its 3rd heartbreaker LW after their Hail Mary was int. They went TD for TD with BYU and actually finished with 25-22 FD and 463-454 yd edges delivering an easy win on the Over as our Coll Ttls GOY, 42-35. LV cont’d its RZ domination and is still the only tm that’s a perfect 100% I/20. QB Clayton (231 ypg, 60%, 17-3 ratio) had a better day than BYU’s Hall hitting 26-40 for 321 yd w/a 1-1 ratio. His top targets are Wolfe (59, 12.1, 4 TD), Flair (39, 11.8, 4) and true Fr Payne (27, 15.4, 7). TCU is off a dominating 54-7 win over WY, outgaining the Pokes 444-221. WR Young had a TCU rec’d (& MWC best TY) 226 rec yd with 3 TD. QB Dalton (174 ypg, 60%, 6-2 ratio) had a ssn high 334 yd (73%) with a 4-0 ratio. UNLV is now 5-0 vs winning & BCS teams and 0-3 vs non-BCS teams .500 & under. TCU has their HUGE gm vs Utah on deck, on a Thurs Nite - and the last time in that spot they barely got by Colo St. The last time LV took on a ranked foe that was looking ahead (Ariz St), they pulled the outright upset. TCU is 2-7-1 as a conf AF, LV is 9-2 as a conf HD and look for the Rebs to keep this closer than expected.

    SOUTHERN MISS 31 Uab 28 - UAB is 0-8 SU (3-4-1 ATS) vs the Golden Eagles but 6 of the 8 have been decided by 7 or less (25-16 avg final). The visitor is 5-2-1 ATS. UAB was dominated at home LY, 37-7 (+10’), but did cover in their last trip here (lost 25-20, +14’). The Blazers are off a bye and have another on deck. QB Webb is a one man show, leading UAB in both passing and rushing, is avg 216 ypg (57%) with an 8-11 ratio and has 723 (5.3) rush yds with 7 TD’s. WR Forrest has 419 ttl yds (12.7). UAB is all’g 488 ypg and 36 ppg in conf play. SMiss is off a 36-30 loss to a Memphis team that was down to their 3rd & 4th string QB’s. RB Fletcher is #10 in NCAA avg 121 ypg. RFr QB Davis is avg 259 ypg (59%) with a 15-7 ratio (6-1 L/2 wks). True Fr WR Brown leads tm with 747 yds (16.2) and 9 TD’s and has caught all 6 of Davis’ TD passes the L/2W. The Eagles’ D is all’g 478 ypg and 38.8 ppg in conf and only has 7 sks in CUSA play (4 gms), plus struggled 2 wks ago vs an athletic QB (Rice’s Clement all’d 45 pts). SMiss is on an 0-5 SU/ATS run so look for a fresh, focused UAB squad to provide a tough HC challenge for the Golden Eagles.

    UTEP 41 Rice 37 - LY UTEP blew a 20 pt, 4Q lead all’g four 4Q Owl TD’s in the 56-48 loss. Rice has won 5 straight ATS (avg cover almost 14 pts) vs the Miners and are 8-3 ATS on the CUSA road and pulled the outright upset here in ‘06 (+8’). Rice is off a 42-17 win at Tulane where they ran for a ssn high 230 yds. RB Ugokwe ran for 111 (6.2) and now has 400 yds (4.9). QB Clement is the leading rusher with 402 (4.1) and is avg 295 ypg (66%) through the air with a 24-6 ratio. WR Dillard has 856 yds (15.0) and 14 TD’s. UTEP all’d 791 yds and 77 pts to Tulsa in their last gm (another up tempo, spread offense) and is all’g 38 ppg and 474 ypg overall. QB Vittatoe is avg 233 ypg (57%) with a 16-4 ratio. UTEP is 3-4 and needs a win to have any shot at a bowl, with 3 of their L/4 away. Rice needs 1 win to be bowl eligible, which would only be their 3rd bowl S/’61. The Miners are rested and the 6th win for bowl eligibility is usually the hardest to come by, so we like UTEP’s chances at home in the Sun Bowl.

    Utah 27 NEW MEXICO 13 - Last trip here Utah blew a 24-3 1H lead & NM scored the winning TD with 2:09 left. NM is 13-7 ATS in home finales but is playing for their 10th straight week while Utah is fresh off a bye (5-0 SU & ATS), but does have TCU in just 5 days. The favorite has gone 8-3 ATS & Utah is 25-7 SU in Nov (12-6 ATS Nov AG’s). NM has pulled 4 outright upsets in the L6Y & is 15-7-1 ATS in Nov. NM outgained AF LW (all’d just 228 yds) & somehow lost in a misleading final (4 TO’s, huge 14 swing - see pg 1). QB Gruner has struggled in the pass gm (avg 90 ypg, 52%, 3-5 ratio) but does have 225 yds rush (5.5). Long has also been inserting walk-on Smith (116 ttl yds) more the L2W. RB Ferguson has 865 yds (5.0), but if you take out NM’s 565 yd effort vs SDSt, they are avg just 277 ypg, but the defense has held 3 of 4 opp’s to 228 or less. 8-0 Utah is led by QB Johnson who is avg 203 ypg (66%) with a 13-7 ratio. The Utes are only allowing 264 ypg (+144) & have outscored MWC foes by 24 ppg. Both defenses (Utah #33 NM#43) are stout, but the Utes have the off edge (#25-92). Even with a huge Thur Night gm looming Utah needs to take care of things here if they want a shot at crashing the BCS party and NM is in danger of not being bowl eligible for the 1st time since 2000.

    OREGON ST 33 Arizona St 16 - With climate & turf differences it’s no surprise that the HT is on an 18-2-1 ATS run in this series. Dennis Erickson was the HC at OSU from ‘99-’02 & now leads an ASU squad into Corvallis searching for their 1st victory S/wk 2 as the Sun Devils have now lost 5 straight (0-4-1 ATS) for the 1st time S/’01 after falling apart against the Ducks LW. Rallying back from an early 19 pt deficit LY, QB Carpenter threw for 361 yds & 4 TD’s as ASU covered (-11) at home 44-32. However, in 2006 OSU rolled to a 44-10 (-2) victory as Carpenter struggled hitting just 9 of 27 passes in Reser Stadium. The Beavers return from bye here where HC Riley is 11-2 SU with an extra wk of prep in his tenure at OSU. Led by outstanding true Fr RB Quizz Rodgers (812 rush yds leads P10), the Beavers have outgained their opponents at hm by a 459-219 margin. With ASU travelling for a 2nd consec gm (0-9-1 ATS) & a 4th RG in their L/5 contests, we expect the favorite to cover their 6th straight in the series.

    WKU 41 North Texas 31 - Following the emotional NT 27-26 win LY at home, players from both tms met at midfield & a scuffle ensued. WKU did miss the game winning 38 yd FG w/1:00 left LY. WKU is off bye (11-4 SU) and in their last gm lost 24-20 to FAU while being outgained 399-317 and outFD’d 22-16. WKU is not only favored for the 1st time but is a DD favorite. WKU QB Wolke is avg 101 ypg (53%) with a 5-4 ratio. NT comes into this gm 0-8 (2-6 ATS) and is 1 of 2 tms still looking for their first win. They are off a 45-17 loss to Troy as they were outgained 547-338 and also had 4 turnovers. QB Vizza is avg 249 ypg (62%) with a 9-10 ratio. WR Fitzgerald became the all-time reception leader LW and has 74 rec (10.4). This gm matches up the NCAA’s 2 worst defenses but NT has played the tougher schedule (#36-107) and this could be their best shot at avoiding a winless ssn.

    ALABAMA 34 Arkansas St 17 - The calendar now says Nov 1 and the teams on top of the BCS standings start to look at every scenario. This spells trouble for a Bama tm that has been outscored 67-29 in 2H in their L/4 gms and is 3-18 ATS as a HF incl 1-7 under Saban. While ASU is just 2-5 SU off a bye under Roberts, it is a good situation as they are fresh and the Tide is in a 4 game SEC sandwich incl Tenn LW and LSU on deck. Alabama did have a 409-282 yd edge vs ULM LY in this spot but was upset (-24’) so they will put some time into this. They come in 8-0 (5-3 ATS) and are off a 29-9 win over Tenn in which they outgained the Vols 366-173 (36 rush) and outFD’d them 23-10. QB Wilson is avg 158 ypg (62%) with an 8-3 ratio and RB Coffee has 838 yds (6.6). ASU is 3-0 ATS vs ranked teams and in their last gm lost their 1st SBC gm TY to ULL 28-23 when ULL scored with :42 left in gm. Three of their last 4 gms are on the road. ASU QB Leonard is avg 211 ypg (53%) with an 11-3 ratio and has already guided the RedWolves to a win at Texas A&M to start this year. If this gm is played on paper Bama obviously wins big, but schedule, situation and a pesky offense keeps ASU within the number.

    LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 23 Fiu 16 - Louisiana-Lft is 5-0 all-time vs FIU with an avg win of 17 ppg (4-0 ATS). Both tms are 6-1 ATS and off byes. ULL (3-0 SU/ATS vs SBC) scored 14 pts in the last 5:00 to beat ASU 28-23 getting their last TD with :42 left in gm. ULL comes into this gm ranked #1 in the nation avg 312 rush ypg but was held to 189 yds by ASU. ULL QB Brown, in his first start (Desormeaux inj’d) vs ASU, had 253 yds and was 18 of 28 with 2-0 ratio. RB Fenroy has 970 ttl yds (7.5) and had his 21st 100 yd gm vs ASU. FIU (3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU vs SBC) had a 3 gm SU win streak come to an end with a 33-23 loss to Troy in their last gm. FIU QB McCall is avg 142 ypg (52%) with an 8-7 ratio. WR Hilton has 17 rec (28.4). While ULL has a huge offensive edge (#26-116), FIU has the better defense (#72-113) and has played the tougher schedule (#70-96). FIU is also outscoring their SBC opponents on avg 32-21 TY.

    ULM 24 Troy 23 - Troy is 7-2-1 vs ULM with the 2 losses & tie coming on the road. The HT has won 4 in a row SU (2-2 ATS) with the only recent game in Monroe being won by ULM 27-3 (+1’). ULM is off 29-28 loss to FAU on a TD w/:20 remaining. They were outgained 418-371 and were up 21-0 before TO’s let FAU back in the gm. ULM QB Lancaster is avg 191 ypg (60%) with a 12-3 ratio. They finish the ssn with a 3 gm road trip while Troy has 3 of their L/4 at home (makeup gm at LSU 11/15). SBC co-leader Troy is off a 44-17 win over NT outgaining them 547-338. QB Brown threw for school rec 40 comps and finished 40-50 for 391 yds and 2-0 ratio (35-42 for 334 yd in 1H). WR Jernigan has 48 rec (12.0) and left in 2Q vs NT with knee inj (CS). ULM Coach Weatherbie gets his team to peak late as they have gone 9-0 ATS the L/5 gms of the ssn the L2Y.

    Sunday, November 2nd - East Carolina at UCF - LY EC trailed 28-17 at the half but scored 28 3Q pts (UCF 5 3Q TO’s) in their 52-38 (+3’) win. East Carolina is 6-1 all-time vs the Knights. EC is 9-4 ATS on the CUSA road but UCF is 8-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in Bright House Stadium. UCF has played in the CUSA Championship gm 2 of L/3 and needs a win to keep their conf title hopes alive. Can UCF get the job done at home, or does East Carolina establish themselves as the team to beat in CUSA East?

    Tuesday, November 4th - Miami, Oh at BUFFALO - This game will be televised on ESPN2, marking the 1st ever National TV gm from UB Stadium. Miami is 10-0 vs Buffalo outscoring the Bulls on average 37-12. The last game here was strange as it was postponed due to a blizzard until Sunday and played in front of a handful of people and UB had a 278-260 yd edge (+7’) and got a 32 yd FG with 1:06 left for the backdoor cover (38-31). LY on the road UB got a TD with 2:54 left for the backdoor 31-28 (+6’). Both are still in the MAC East Title race.

    Wednesday, November 5th - Northern Illinois at BALL ST - NIll is 7-2 SU vs Ball St and won here 40-28 in ‘06. LY Ball St was at full strength and bowl bound taking on an inj depleted NIll squad on the road (-8) but the Huskies got the backdoor cover with 1:31 left (27-21). TY both are in the MAC West Title hunt as Ball St is 4-0 in conf play while NI is 4-1 and both still have games vs MAC West leader C Mich.

    Toledo at AKRON - Toledo is 8-1 SU in the series covering the last 6 but has not traveled here since 1998 and the Rockets are just 3-12 SU on the road. Akron is off a bye and owns the only MAC East SU win over a MAC West team TY.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 30 2008 2:40pm
12. 0 likes

    RED SHEET ONLINE

    RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE

    Florida 41 - Georgia 20 - (3:30 EDT - @ Jacksonville) -- Line opened at Florida minus 6, and is now minus

    5½. The Gators sure have rebounded in style, since their embarrassing loss to OleMiss,

    with a combined 152-33 pt edge since, covering those 3 by a cumulative 62 pts. Couldn't

    have more of a steady hand at QB with Heisman winner Tebow again having a solid season

    (4 TDs in rout of Kentucky), and that defense ranks 15th in the nation. The 'Dawgs again

    among the elite, with Moreno in off back-to-back 172 & 163 RY efforts. But GA allowed 500

    yds wk ago, so look for smoking & avenging Gators to take advantage.

    RATING: FLORIDA 89

    SOUTH CAROLINA 30 - Tennessee 13 - (7:00) -- Line opened at SouthCarolina minus 5, and is now minus

    6. As we figured a week ago, this Vol edition just isn't up to usual Fullmer squads. Have

    thus far lost to Florida, Auburn, Georgia, & Alabama, while averaging a meager 10 pts in the

    process. The Gamecocks, similarly, have hardly lit it up so far, but certainly have their

    bonafides (with the land's 3rd ranked "D"), have had an extra week to prepare, & have a

    double-revenge setup as incentive. LY, a nearly 200-yd edge was offset by 4 TOs, so you

    can be sure that Spurrier will drive that home. Better team, & better psyche.

    RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89

    Auburn 22 - MISSISSIPPI 19 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Mississippi minus 4, and is now minus 6. The SEC

    rules this edition of the Red Sheet, but that's how it has played out. As noted on Pointwise,

    the Tigers have dropped seven straight to the line, but have played all SEC opponents to

    the wire, with final margins of 1, 5, 2, 1, & 3 pts (1-pt losses on their 2 league road games).

    Couldn't stay with WVa's explosive outfit last week, but ranked #10 in the nation in scoring

    defense, entering that contest. Rebs, in contrast, rank 62nd in scoring "D", & stand 2-3 in

    the SEC, with their wins by 1 & 1 pt. We'll grab the 6 pts here.

    RATING: AUBURN 88

    TEXAS TECH 47 - Texas 44 - (8:00) -- Line opened at Texas minus 4, and is now minus 6. This contest has

    all the makings of a true classic shootout. Both enter with perfect 8-0 records. The Steers

    stand atop the weekly polls (unanimously in the AP), & deservedly so, with their combination

    of firepower -- behind the brilliance of McCoy, who is now at 21/4 (TDs to INTs) & 82%

    (87% past 2 wks vs 13-3 Missouri & OklaSt) -- & defense. However, ranking 2nd in rushing

    "D" is hardly the formula for stopping Tech's Harrell (26/5), who threw for 418 yds in last

    week's 63-21 rout of Kansas, in Lawrence (42-pt cover). Call the upset.

    RATING: TEXAS TECH 88

    Boise State 41 - NEW MEXICO STATE 10 - (7:00) -- Line opened at BoiseSt minus 20, and is still minus 20.

    This spot came down to these Broncos, or the Missouri Tigers, both a pair of 20-pt road

    chalks. The final determinant came down to the fact the 7-0 Broncos have played their best

    ball in the role of visitor. And that includes last week's highly impressive rollover of one of

    the best home plays in the nation, namely SanJoseSt, holding the Spartans to a mere 9

    FDs, while enjoying a 20-minute time edge. Boise has held 5 opponents to 7 pts or less.

    Ags, by comparison, rank 1057th in scoring "D", & lost by 58 in LY's match.

    RATING: BOISE STATE 88

    Tampa Bay 26 - KANSAS CITY 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at TampaBay minus 8, and is still minus 8. The

    Chiefs continue among the NFL dregs, with their current 1-15 straightup run, Can't stop the

    run, ranking dead last that category, & offensively, are going it without their leading weapon,

    with RB Johnson again facing suspension for his latest indiscretion. And, of course, their

    quarterbacking situation has been a problem all year. Try a 96-34 pt deficit in their last 3

    games. Enter the Bucs, with their 6th rated overland game, along with their always solid

    "D", which held Dallas to 172 yds just last week. Chiefs' woes just continue.

    RATING: TAMPA BAY 88

    NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): MichSt, Oregon, Missouri, Oklahoma - NFL: Buffalo, Giants, Washington

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 30 2008 2:43pm
13. 0 likes

    NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS

    The winner of this should get a trip to the SEC Champ game, while the loser will merely be #2

    in the SEC East with little chance of a BCS bowl. PP calls for Florida to win by 15 (line 5’) but the

    yardage forecast is close. UGA has played better than expected with major injuries on both lines

    this year, but UF is the stronger and healthier team at this point.

    4★ FLORIDA 40 GEORGIA 25

    Both tms need this win for a chance at a bowl. CU is off a blowout loss to Missouri while A&M is

    off a much needed win vs ISU and seem to be on the upswing. PP calls for a 7 pt win by A&M (line

    2’) and we agree.

    4★ TEXAS A&M 31 COLORADO 24

    PP says the wrong team is favored in this one as it calls for CM to win by 5 (line IU -2’) and the

    yards are almost even. Indiana is in a NW/Wisconsin sandwich.

    4★ C MICHIGAN (+) 32 INDIANA 27

    Iowa has won the L/5 & has held IL to 7 or less in 3 meetings under Zook. Iowa is fresh off a bye

    and IL is off a devastating loss to Wisky. PP says that Iowa will win by 2 (line IL -1’), and we agree.

    4★ IOWA (+) 25 ILLINOIS 23

    OSU kept it tight vs #1 Texas LW, but still lost their fi rst gm of the yr. The Cowboys are 9-2-1 ATS

    off a SU loss. PP says OSU will win by 39 (line 31) with a 562-283 yd edge and we agree.

    4★ OKLAHOMA ST 49 IOWA ST 10

    Tuberville is 7-2 SU but just 5-4 ATS vs his former team but the visitor is 9-3 ATS in this series.

    UM will be glad to be back in front of a friendly crowd after LW’s emotional gm at Ark. PP says UM

    will win by 10 (line 5’) with a 404-256 yd edge and we agree.

    4★ MISSISSIPPI 25 AUBURN 15

    It’s tough enough to play B2B games vs ranked opponents but how about 4 straight? Add in the

    fact that PP is calling for the Red Raiders to fi nish with a substantial 505-390 edge and they’re a 6

    pt home dog which makes this an easy Top Play Selection. The HT is 3-0 ATS covering by 11 ppg.

    4★ TEXAS TECH 36 TEXAS 34

    This forecast even surprised me. PP is calling for Clemson to get the road win. They do have the

    scheduling edge, are off a bye and were able to work in the interim HC’s new ideas.

    4★ CLEMSON 23 BOSTON COLLEGE 22

    While both tms got crushed LW, KSt outgained OU 550-528 and Kansas was outgained by TT 556-315.

    PP is calling for KSt to keep it within 4 pts and with the line over 10, the Wildcats are the play.

    4★ KANSAS STATE (+) 34 KANSAS 38

    BYU will now refocus after their loss to TCU and near upset vs UNLV. They were half of our College

    Totals GOY winner LW vs UNLV. They’re now in their preferred role as a conf AF (7-2 ATS).

    4★ BYU 37 COLORADO STATE 19

    While it’s hard to imagine that Stanford won as a 41 pt dog LY vs USC, it’s almost as hard to play them

    as a 30 pt fav. Nothing, however, is as hard to believe as this WSU squad is allowing 6.2 ypc rushing,

    while allowing 4 of 5 P10 tms to top 63 pts. We’ll ride the WSU streak of 7 straight IA ATS losses.

    4★ STANFORD 45 WASHINGTON STATE 11

    USC is off a crucial win over Arizona and has Cal on deck. Washington has lost 5 in a row ATS

    and is one of only 2 teams in FBS without a win TY (NT is other). PP says USC will win by 48 (line

    43) with a 580-120 yd edge.

    3★ USC 48 WASHINGTON 0

    Idaho got a rare and emotional win LW but San Jose takes care of business here. The SJSt

    defense holds the Vandals to 279 yds and takes out some frustrations off a HL to Boise.

    3★ SAN JOSE STATE 33 IDAHO 14

    ASU’s downward spiral continues as they were outgained by over 200 yds at home LW. OSU has cover

    5 staight while ASU has 1 cover this ssn. The Beavers fi nish with a dominating 432-240 yd edge.

    3★ OREGON STATE 33 ARIZONA STATE 16

    While it would be easy for LSU to look past Tulane, it won’t happen here. They are forecasted to

    dominate with a 515-250 edge and a monster ST edge. Take a hungry Tigers squad off an ugly HL.

    3★ LSU 45 TULANE 12

    The Irish are 12-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in this series. Pitt was stunned at home LW vs Rutgers losing

    54-34 which knocked them out of the rankings and hurt their chances in the BE race. PP calls for

    ND to win by 7 (line 5’) and we think it could be by more than that.

    2★ NOTRE DAME 29 PITTSBURGH 22

    The visitor is 3-0 SU & ATS winning by 19 ppg. PP call for BG to win by 6 (line and shows Kent

    St with a 240-151 yd rush edge.

    2★ KENT ST (+) 24 BOWLING GREEN 30

    FSU has won all 4 (covered 3) since the suspensions ended. They travel to Atlanta and come away

    with a close road win against a Yellow Jackets squad that was outgained 396-259 LW at home.

    1★ FLORIDA STATE 24 GEORGIA TECH 22

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 30 2008 2:44pm
14. 0 likes

    NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS - NFL

    (TB #13 vs KC #31 KC #27 vs TB #5) This is the 1st time all year KC will have the same QB start 2 consec

    weeks. Thigpen is coming off an impressive game vs NYJ where he hit 280 yds (69%) with a 2-0 ratio.

    KC was +3 TO’s thanks to Favre which kept them in the game. While TB held DAL to 172 yds LW their

    struggles near the red-zone (3 FG’s on 4 trips to DAL 25) cost them. KC is 0-4 SU & ATS vs run oriented

    teams (OAK, ATL, CAR, TEN) losing by an avg score of 32-8 & has the #9 rush offense. PP gives TB a

    353-194 yd edge & a 2 TD margin & look for the Bucs to improve to 7-0 ATS before a bye.

    4★ BUCS 24 CHIEFS 10

    (GB #16 vs TEN #3 TEN #22 vs GB #16) TEN is off a huge MNF game vs IND where they could take

    a big step towards locking down the AFC South. TEN’s physical play TY has taken their non-div foes

    by surprise with a 4-0 SU & ATS margin. GB is 7-2 ATS as a dog after a bye & desperately needed the

    rest for QB Rodgers & most of the defense. While MNF isn’t factored in here, TEN has enough track

    record TY to respect the 451-247 yd edge here. The Titans are the play vs a GB team that is 0-3 SU &

    ATS vs a foe with a winning record TY.

    4★ TITANS 34 PACKERS 9

    (ATL #10 vs OAK #26 OAK #25 vs ATL #25) LW’s results give great line value as the Raiders were

    dismantled by an aggressive veteran defense on the road. We won a 3★ LPS winner going against

    ATL on the road vs PHI LW. While they kept it close for the 1st 2.5Q they gave up 192 yds rushing (6.0)

    which is OAK’s strength. They now have to travel for the 2nd straight week out to the West Coast as an

    AF for the 1st time since the end of 2006. PP gives OAK a 393-323 yd edge & calls for them to stay

    within the number & we agree.

    3★ RAIDERS (+) 19 FALCONS 20

    (PHI #8 vs SEA #27 SEA #31 vs PHI #7) SEA is off a misleading win vs SF as they beat a rookie interim

    HC & were outFD’d 21-14 & outgained 388-261. They lost MLB Tatupu & that could be a big problem vs

    PHI who had a healthier Westbrook rush for a career high 167 yds (7.6) LW. McNabb is having a Pro

    Bowl year (4th comp, 5th att’s, 5th yds 2nd int %) & gets a bad SEA secondary that is allowing an 11-2

    ratio & 103.4 opp QBR. PP gives PHI a 380-245 yd edge & SEA is expected to go with QB Wallace for

    the 3rd week.

    3★ EAGLES 26 SEAHAWKS 18

    BAL #24 vs CLE #21 CLE #29 vs BAL #2) It’s tough to fi gure out which CLE team will show up week

    to week as they upset the Jags on the road LW with a Pro Bowl caliber game from NT Rogers (9 tkls

    1 sack 3 QBH & 1 tfl ). Anderson was OK with 246 yds passing (52%) with a 1-0 ratio. BAL thumped

    OAK coming cross country & had an 11-2 FD & 221-35 yd edge at the end of the 1H with a 19 pt lead

    taking the run game out of the game plan. PP gives CLE a small nod but the yardage is basically even

    keeping the side from being a play but the Total is attractive.

    NO PLAY: BROWNS 19 RAVENS 14

    2★ RAVENS/BROWNS: UNDER

    (JAX #20 vs CIN #22 CIN #32 vs JAX #23) The Jags are off a surprise home loss to an inconsistent

    CLE team & Del Rio was visibly livid in the after game press conference. CIN was taken out of the game

    early LW & the team didn’t put forth much effort. They haven’t won the yardage battle in any game TY

    & have been outgained by 109 ypg TY. CIN is 2-8 ATS at home before a bye & it’s diffi cult to say they’ll

    put forth any effort here. JAX only has a 50 yd edge here as they have a quest secondary which will

    keep this from being a stronger play.

    2★ JAGUARS 27 BENGALS 16

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 30 2008 2:45pm
15. 0 likes

    LOGICAL APPROACH

    COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: NEW MEXICO + 7 ½ over Utah - Utah is one of 4 unbeaten teams from non-NCS conferences. The Utes have been very consistent all season with an outstanding defense and underrated offense. New Mexico again started slowly but has always been a strong second half team under coach Rocky Long. Despite losing last week at Air Force, this season is following that pattern as the Lobos are much improved from their play in September. This is a tough spot for Utah as they host defensively stout TCU next Thursday in a game that may well decide the Mountain West title. New Mexico has beaten Utah 3 of the last 4 times they have played here, twice as underdogs. New Mexico has been to Bowls in 5 of the last 6 seasons and at 4-5 needs to win of 2 of their last 3 to become Bowl eligible. This is also New Mexico's final home game which should insure their top notch performance. Utah barely survives, winning 24-23.

    Other Featured College Selections

    NOTRE DAME - 5 ½ over Pittsburgh - Just when you thought Dave Wannstedt was finally getting his team to play to its potential Pittsburgh throws in a stinker as they did last week in their 54-34 home loss to previously punchless Rutgers. Meanwhile Notre Dame has put last season's 3-9 disaster behind them and show continued improvement each week. Both teams are 5-2 but the Irish have the greater momentum and have faced a far more challenging schedule. The teams are very close statistically although Notre Dame has been more effective at preventing scores. Pitt has a slight edge in the rushing game that is more than offset by Notre Dame's edge in the passing attack both on offense and defense. Pitt still has designs on winning the Big East with four games remaining while Notre Dame is looking to build up wins in their attempt to earn a BCS Bowl bid. Notre Dame's better QB play and momentum make this a solid play. Notre Dame wins 31-17.

    TEXAS TECH + 6 over Texas - Much is on the line as 2 of 8 remaining unbeaten teams hook up in Lubbock. Both are 8-0 and the lead in Big 12 South is on the line. Texas has played the tougher and more demanding schedule, especially the past 3 weeks and one must wonder just how much the Longhorns have in the fuel tank despite the stakes. Tech has the nation's top passing attack, 418 ypg, 115 ypg per game more than Texas' # 11 passing game. The Tech defense is better than perceived and is allowing less yards per play than is Texas (but keep in mind the quality of foes). Texas has won 8 of the last 10 in the series but Tech has covered 3 of 5 at home. This is by far Tech's best team during this period and this is their best chance to defeat the Longhorns. The Red Raider defense is forcing 2.5 turnovers a game, an area in which the Texas defense is below average. The talent gap has narrowed between these programs and although Texas still has the better athletes, their recent stretch of games has taken a toll. Texas Tech wins 34-31.

    LSU - 25 ½ over Tulane - After allowing 51 points to Florida and 52 to Georgia in losses surrounding a tough win at South Carolina, LSU gets a chance to take out mounting frustrations in a game they might normally care little about. Both Georgia and Florida are BCS Title contenders so the Tigers take a huge step down in class here. This game should be very similar to one last week in which Missouri blasted Colorado 58-0 after suffering losses to highly ranked Oklahoma State and Texas. The situation is very similar and LSU has the firepower on both sides of the ball to name the score. Tulane is simply outmanned and overmatched. They are 2-5 and have actually posted decent stats defensively but against far weaker foes than LSU has faced. LSU does host Alabama next week so this might normally be considered a look ahead spot for the Tigers but given those games against Florida and Georgia the defending BCS Champions will be fully focused against a foe they have defeated by a combined 131-33 in their only 3 meetings over the past decade. This one gets ugly early and often. LSU wins 55-10.

    Money Line Recommendations

    College:

    Oregon

    TEXAS TECH

    Kentucky

    UTEP

    NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: MINNESOTA - 4 ½ over Houston -

    Houston is off of their best game of the season -- by far -- on both sides of the football and are unlikely to play to a similar level this week. The Vikings are off of a Bye that followed a loss in Chicago and should have used the time to design an offense more suited to the talents of QB Gus Frerotte who replaced Tarvaris Jackson as the starter several weeks into the season. Minnesota's running game and significantly better overall defense also provide solid edges. The Vikes are allowing just 2.9 yards per rush and nearly a yard per play less than the Texans. This is Houston's first road game since the end of September after 4 straight at home and their modest 3 game winning streak has included wins over the league's two remaining winless teams, Cincinnati and Detroit and both came at home. Minnesota, primed for a big effort, wins easily, 27-13.

    Other Featured NFL Selections :

    Tampa Bay - 8 over KANSAS CITY - Tampa drops down in class this week after playing well defensively at Dallas in their 13-9 loss. The Chiefs hung tough at New York and nearly defeated the Jets. Though their long term record at home is lofty, the Chiefs have lost 2 of 3 at Arrowhead this season and have had trouble sustaining momentum against more talented teams. This is a young team in the process of rebuilding while Tampa is a Playoff contender. Against weaker teams the Buccs are content to just run the ball and play conservatively to protect leads. Kansas City is the worst in the league against the run, allowing 197 yards per game (5.6 per carry). Their own ground game is in disarray with the unsettled status of RB Larry Johnson and their offense is led by a third string QB, Tyler Thigpen. Off of a loss and headed into their Bye week, Tampa will be focused and well motivated for a big effort against a very compliant foe. Tampa bay win 23-10.

    DENVER- 3 over Miami - Denver's off their Bye and eager to atone for their embarrassing performance at New England. Miami's already tripled their win total from last season and stand 3-4. Denver has major concerns with their defense that is allowing 396 ypg. Miami's offense is being well managed by QB Chad Pennington and rarely turns the ball over, averaging less than one giveaway per game. The Broncos have the NFL's #2 offense (382 ypg). With two road games on deck this becomes a key game for Denver. Their rushing offense has been well above average while their weak run defense faces a Dolphins ground game gaining below the league average. Miami has covered 5 straight against Denver which gives us value in this short line. It's hard to offer many negatives against improved Miami which is showing they were not nearly as bad last season as their 1-15 record. But it's a bad scheduling spot for Miami, off of two home games and with three more at home up next, making this their only road trip in a 6 game stretch. And they'll face a rested, angry and highly motivated foe. Denver's offensive balance proves decisive. Denver wins 26-17.

    Dallas + 8 over N Y GIANTS - This long term rivalry takes on even more importance as the G-men threaten to make it a runaway in the NFC East while Dallas struggles behind backup QB Brad Johnson with Tony Romo still sidelined. This line is a 15 point turnaround from their last meeting when the Giants knocked the Cowboys out of the Playoffs last season in Dallas as a 7 point underdog. Overall both teams are above average both on offense and defense with not much separating the teams statistically. Aside from blowout wins over weaklings Seattle and St Louis, the Giants have not been as dominant as may be perceived. They struggled in wins over Cincinnati, San Francisco and Pittsburgh. Both teams have done well both running the ball and stopping the run. Most of their yards per play stats are extremely close. Dallas remains a team loaded with talent across the board, even considering their injury woes. Dallas will be motivated to avenge that Playoff loss. While they likely don't pull the upset, this game will be close. NY Giants win 23-20.

    Best of the NFL Totals

    Houston/Minnesota UNDER 47

    Tampa Bay/Kansas City UNDER 37 ½

    Arizona/St Louis OVER 49

    Miami/Denver UNDER 49

    Atlanta/Oakland UNDER 41

    Pittsburgh/Washington UNDER 37

    Money Line Recommendations

    Pro:

    MINNESOTA

    DENVER

    OAKLAND

    New England

    __________________

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 30 2008 2:45pm
16. 0 likes

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

    INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

    The Florida Gators are 16-2 SU and 16-1-1 ATS

    in games off a SU and ATS win when playing with conference revenge.

    5* BEST BET

    Florida over Georgia by 17

    This is the part where all you folks who watched Georgia annihilate

    LSU last Saturday start shaking your heads and ask, “Are you really

    gonna give those guys a touchdown?” You betcha… and here’s why.

    The mighty Gators are 10-0 SU and ATS in this series when they enter

    off consecutive wins and the Urban legend is 26-10 as a dog or favorite

    of 7 or less points, including 13-2 when seeking revenge. Things look

    a little more grim for the Dawgs. For starters, Georgia coach Mark

    Richt is an unbelievable 0-18 ATS – the big zero – in games he loses SU

    when not taking double digits. In keeping with the goose egg theme,

    our powerful database tell us teams who beat defending National

    Champions are 0-8 SU and ATS as a dog in their next game since 1990.

    Oh, and let’s not forget that ‘entire-Georgia-team-rushes-the-fi eld’

    touchdown celebration in last year’s 42-30 Bulldog win at The Cocktail

    Party – you know Urban Meyer hasn’t. With Richt’s team a weak 2-7

    ATS against an SEC revenger, we look for the Gators to put the chomp

    on UGA, drag him under and execute the death roll… then win out en

    route to the conference title game.

    4* BEST BET

    Wisconsin over MICHIGAN ST by 7

    While the Spartans are still celebrating beating up on the neighborhood

    bullies, Wisconsin is in desperation mode. The Badgers need two more

    wins in their last four games to become bowl eligible, a surprising

    scenario considering their high early-season ranking. Wisky does fall

    into one of our favorite categories here: a long time series favorite

    now taking points. The boys from Madison have come favored in 10

    of the last 11 confrontations, including the last seven in a row and

    actually own both the better offense and defense. The Spartans are

    a feeble 1-7-1 ATS laying 24 or less points at home to a foe off a SU

    win and just 1-5 ATS home after Michigan when tackling a foe off a

    DD win. With Michigan State playing its 10th straight game without

    the benefi t of a week of rest, we’ll have to side with the underdog

    Badgers here.

    3* BEST BET

    UCONN over West Virginia by 7

    Connecticut played to its two biggest strengths, superstar RB Donald

    Brown and a rock-ribbed defense, to engineer a 40-16 rout of

    Cincinnati last week and climb back into the thick of the Big East race.

    However, that win garnered far less attention than West Virginia’s

    34-17 beatdown of SEC power Auburn, a scenario that makes us like

    the Huskies even more in this matchup. The Mountaineers have been

    camped at home for their last four games (all wins) but the fact is

    fi rst-year coach Bill Stewart is still a maiden away from Morgantown,

    losing SU as a road favorite against East Carolina and Colorado while

    scoring just 17 total points. By comparison, UConn’s Randy Edsall is

    a monster at home, going 12-3 ATS against conference opponents,

    including 7-1 if his foe is off a SU win. We don’t want to be accused of

    having a one-track mind but the previously mentioned ‘R’ word can’t

    be overlooked here. Last year’s horrifying 66-21 loss to the Mounties

    marked the most points allowed in Big East play under Edsall and you

    know he’s aching to settle the score. The Huskies’ stout 10-1 SU home

    record in November since 2002 tells us their pound of fl esh is about to

    be served.

    UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

    ARKANSAS over Tulsa by 3

    Despite a near universal sentiment that he fails miserably as coach

    at Arkansas, fi rst-hear Head Hog Bobby Petrino is starting to pull his

    Razorbacks together into a scrappy, competitive bunch. Arky’s last three

    games (1-2 SU) were decided by a total of just 6 points and Petrino

    is 12-0 SU and 8-3 ATS at home in his career versus non-conference

    opponents. Enter Tulsa: the immense pressure on the Golden Hurricane

    to remain unbeaten is magnifi ed by their appearance as road chalk at

    an SEC venue, especially when our powerful database informs us SEC

    home teams are 57-12 SU against C-USA squads, including 9-2 versus

    an undefeated foe. Tulsa got blown out here, 45-13, as 37-pt dogs in

    its last visit in 2003 and with the Hogs rooting out a profi table 9-2 ATS

    record at home off consecutive SU losses, we look for the Big Breeze to

    lose considerable velocity against a rugged bunch of underhogs. Woo

    Pig Sooey!

    Thursday, October 30th

    CINCINNATI over S Florida by 1

    These two teams were expected to contend for the Big East championship

    but following last week’s depressing defeats, tonight’s game takes on an

    air of desperation. USF fl opped as a road favorite at Louisville, done in by

    109 yards worth of penalties and a record-low EIGHT yards rushing. Cincy

    also took the bullet as road chalk at UConn, rushing for just 30 yards as the

    Huskies broke open a close game with 20 points in the 4th quarter. The Bulls,

    who were as high as No. 10 in the rankings, have now dropped two of their

    past three games and would have been a SMART BOX ‘Play On’ here had

    they showed up wearing the dog collar. They’ll arrive as favorites instead,

    so we’ll gladly take the points with a Bearcats team that has covered four

    straight in the series, winning SU as road dogs at Tampa last year. Check the

    status of Cincinnati QB Tony Pike – he started against Connecticut for the

    fi rst time since breaking his non-throwing arm back in September but did

    not return after halftime.

    Saturday, November 1st

    BOWLING GREEN over Kent St by 6

    We’ve seen some pretty bizarre stuff this season but last week’s road win by

    Kent State ranks right up there at the top. The 1-6 Golden Flashes limped into

    Yager Stadium, home of the defending MAC East champions, and dropped

    a 54-point bomb on the bewildered RedHawks – the most points ever scored

    against Miami Ohio on its home fi eld. Meanwhile, Bowling Green detonated

    a stink bomb of its own against Northern Illinois in a 16-13 defeat, running

    only 14 offensive plays in the second half (fi nished with 168 total yards on

    43 plays). So, if you’ll pardon the cliché, we really do have two teams headed

    in opposite directions here. KSU has won the stats in its last three games

    while the Falcons have gone just 2-6 ‘In The Stats’ this year, allowing more

    points and yards than they’ve tallied over the course of the season. With

    the BeeGees taking an ATS dump at home in their last three clashes with

    Kent State, we’ll take a hint from Lou Christie and look for lightning to be

    striking again.

    INDIANA over C Michigan by 1

    After getting smacked around for fi ve straight losses, the Hoosiers fi nally

    hunkered down and played like last year’s 7-6 bowl team, forcing fi ve

    turnovers to claim a 21-19 thriller over Northwestern (IU’s fi rst Big 10 win this

    season). Central Michigan also survived a close call, squeezing past Toledo,

    24-23, for the Chippewas’ fourth straight win. Now comes the problem. CMU

    is a laid-out-on-the-slab 0-17 SU against the Big 10 since 1993 – but the Chips

    did cover earlier this year versus Purdue. Indiana is a near fl awless 19-1 SU

    when taking on MAC foes – but that lone loss came this year against Ball

    State. Those are two big ‘buts’ so we’ll let you make the call here.

    Air Force over ARMY by 6

    This week’s ‘Perception versus Reality’ special. There’s no doubt that 2nd

    year coach Stan Brock has the Cadets playing improved football this year.

    After bottoming out in an embarrassing 22-3 setback to Akron, Army

    regained its confi dence in a 4-point loss to Texas A&M and the Black

    Knights have won three of their last four games since falling to the Aggies

    (4-0 ATS and 3-1 ITS). Similarly, Air Force has made a fl ight correction after

    losing at home to Navy, soaring to three consecutive wins. The question

    is does Army’s recent spike of success help keep the line in order or was

    it just a mirage against mediocre, at best, opposition? The bottom line is

    double-digit home dogs with a better defense warrant a strong look – and

    we’re lookin’

    Louisville over SYRACUSE by 17

    Revenge is a concept that’s frequently overused when handicapping football

    games. However, in this case, we feel it’s certainly worth mentioning. In last

    year’s Big East home opener for Louisville, new coach Steve Kragthorpe

    suffered one of the most humiliating defeats in his entire career, a 38-35

    crash-and-burn disaster against pathetic Syracuse – as 38-point chalk! Now

    it’s payback time and believe it or not, there’s actually some value to the

    Louisville side laying two TDs. Yes, we know double-digit road favorites

    off a SU home dog win are an anemic 25-42-3 ATS overall but bring ‘em

    in with a big revenge chip on their shoulders and they’ve posted a perfect

    7-0 ATS mark. Hey, any time we can get the superior team laying 24 points

    LESS than they did in last year’s meeting, it’s an offer we can’t refuse…

    especially when we note that Syracuse is 0-6 ATS as a home dog off a

    SUATS loss under Greg Robinson. One glimmer of hope for Orange fans:

    the school has fi nally admitted to forming a ‘search committee’ in their

    quest to locate Robinson’s replacement. For Syracuse diehards who have

    suffered through an 8-34 SU nightmare under this charlatan, the end can’t

    come soon enough.

    Miami Fla over VIRGINIA by 1

    Hey, if we convinced you that Louisville carries meaningful revenge into

    its contest with Syracuse, then Miami Florida’s trip to Charlottesville has

    to qualify as ‘The Mother Of All Revenge Games’. Remember last year?

    In the Hurricanes’ fi nal home game ever at the fabled Orange Bowl,

    they laid one of the biggest eggs in school history, losing 48-0 in front

    of a crowd that included some of the program’s greatest players. Rest

    assured, Canes’ coach Randy Shannon still wakes up in a cold sweat

    over that debacle and even though he has his team playing inspired

    football of late, getting even with the Cavs here may not be such an

    easy task. Despite a terrible 1-3 start, Virginia has somehow rebounded

    to win four consecutive games – including three over ACC foes – all

    as an underdog! According to our database, the Wahoos are only the

    FOURTH TEAM since 1980 to accomplish this feat and the other three

    went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the next game (2-0 as pick or dog; 0-1 as

    a favorite). With UVA’s Al Groh an outstanding 31-15-1 ATS at Scott

    Stadium (8-2 ATS off a SU dog win), we’ll see where the line settles

    before opening our wallet.

    ILLINOIS over Iowa by 4

    Neither of these teams is among the four Big 10 squads that own a winning

    record in conference play but a victory here would go a long way towards

    locking in a potential 2008 bowl berth. Confusing the issue is the fact that

    Iowa laid 21 POINTS on this fi eld to the Illini in 2006. So has Ron Zook’s team

    improved by 24 pts over the two years or has Iowa declined to that great a

    degree? The history book offers little help: the Hawkeyes have failed to cash

    in three straight trips to Champaign and they’ve covered just once in nine

    tries when playing off back-to-back wins. Illinois is a disappointing 2-6 ATS

    as chalk off a SU favorite loss so we’ll have to qualify our selection based on

    Illlini QB Juice William’s superior play and an ugly 0-6 ATS string of failure for

    the series visitor. Homeboys in a close one.

    MINNESOTA over Northwestern by 3

    We’re still shaking our heads in amazement over the incredible turnaround

    engineered by 2nd year Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster. In less than one

    season, the Gophers have gone from Foldin’ (1-11 SU in 2007) to Golden (7-1

    SU and currently 4th in the Big 10) and we think Brewster deserves serious

    consideration for national coach of the year. Minny has climbed to the #17

    spot in this week’s BCS poll – behind only Penn State and Ohio State – but

    after a pair of eye-opening road wins over Illlinois and Purdue, this looks to

    be a classic fl at spot on the Gophers’ schedule. Northwestern has bagged the

    cash in four of its last fi ve forays at the Metrodome and the Purple Cats are a

    solid 16-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back roadies. Minnesota has failed to

    cover in its last four tries when playing the fi rst of consecutive home affairs

    (0-3-1 ATS) – and we never like laying points with an upset winner against

    an upset loser. Since NU owns the better offense and the better defense, the

    points are the play here. THIS JUST IN: Wildcat RB Tyrell Sutton is injured and

    out for the season.

    WAKE FOREST over Duke by 4

    Take a gander at the current ACC standings and you’ll fi nd Duke nestled in

    its customary spot in the Coastal Division cellar. But unlike years past, seven

    games into the season the Blue Devils are proud owners of a 4-3 record

    after marching into Nashville last Saturday and stuffi ng Vandy, 10-7. Wake

    Forest also owns a 4-3 SU mark but it’s a huge step backwards for a program

    that won 20 games the previous two seasons and represented the ACC in

    the 2006 Orange Bowl. Yes, the wheels are indeed falling off for the Deacs:

    they’ve lost three of their last four games SU, ATS and ITS – and coach Jim

    Grobe has been wandering the sidelines wearing the same look of confusion

    we saw on former president Ronald Reagan before we learned he was

    suffering from Alzheimer’s. However, the ever-vigilant linemaker has done

    his homework, pricing Wake as a mere TD favorite after the Deacs laid 7.5

    points at Durham last year. New Duke coach Cutcliffe is 7-4 ATS off a SU dog

    win (including 6-0 if off a win of 4 or less points) and with his squad covering

    four of the last fi ve trips to Winston-Salem, we’re putting our dough on the

    Blue Man Group.

    OKLAHOMA ST over Iowa St by 27

    After taking #1 Texas to the limit in a 28-24 loss last Saturday at Austin,

    Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson fl atly stated, “If Texas is No. 1, then

    obviously we’re not very far behind.” Turns out the BCS boys are in

    agreement – despite the loss, the Cowboys remained in the poll’s Top 10

    this week at the #9 position. This week’s opponent, Iowa State, fi nally got

    its offense untracked and put 35 on the board against Texas A&M. Only one

    problem: the Cyclone ‘D’ got drilled for 49 points and ISU dropped to 2-6

    SU on the season (now 5-15 under Gene Chizik). The ATS gods do not look

    kindly on the road team in this matchup. Iowa state has sunk to 2-12 ATS off

    three or more spread losses and the Clones are further shamed by a 3-14 ATS

    failure as Big 12 road dogs of 15 or more points. In fact, there’s not a lot to

    like about Iowa State other than Oklahoma State falling prey to the dreaded

    BUBBLE BURST, a role that’s burned plenty of money. Think we’ll head to the

    saloon and sit this one out, padnuh.

    Missouri over BAYLOR by 17

    Jeez, if you think the Incredible Hulk is a handful when he gets mad, you

    should’ve seen Missouri last week. They carved up Colorado with all the

    precision and glee of a serial killer, proving to all that reports of their death

    were greatly exaggerated. Mizzou QB Chase Daniel tied his school record

    with fi ve touchdown passes, leading scoring drives on 9 of 11 possessions

    and the defense pitched its fi rst conference shutout since 1986. Few teams

    could have bounced back so strongly from a fi rst-round TKO against Texas

    and now the Tigers face the fi rst of four beatable teams to close out their

    conference schedule. Should they go 4-0, they may get another crack at the

    Longhorns. First they have to deal with Baylor and the ATS archives don’t

    have much to say for BU. The Waco Bears are 1-7 ATS lately as double-digit

    home dogs, 2-10 ATS in Game Nine and head coach Briles is just 1-7 ATS as a

    home dog of more than 6 points. But Missouri’s no bargain, either, posting

    a poor 1-3-1 ATS mark in its last fi ve tries as DD road chalk. The Bears are an

    improved team this year and they’re also a DD Homecoming dog, so we say

    take it or leave it.

    OLE MISS over Auburn by 1

    Talk about a ‘you couldn’t script this in Hollywood’ coaching matchup:

    we have Tommy Tuberville heading south to play his former school while

    new Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt just stuck it to his former employer the

    previous week, beating Arkansas on the road, 23-21. We have a suspicion

    Nutt burned a lot of electrolytes prepping for the Hogs and he may not be

    able to take on Tubs with the same intensity. That scenario would agree

    with the Rebs’ dismal 2-16-1 ATS log at home versus a foe off a double-digit

    loss – and Auburn’s recent 5-1 ATS series domination at Oxford. Even better,

    Aubbie has whipped Johnny Reb SU in 16 of the last 19 get-togethers and

    the three times they were made the dog, Auburn won all three outright.

    Hmmm… with Nutt off the one game he wanted the most and the Tigers

    standing a perfect 5-0 as dogs versus an opponent off BB ATS wins, maybe

    Tommy against his ole gang may be just what the Tigers need to snap a 7-

    game ATS losing skid.

    WYOMING over San Diego St by 1

    Election time is at hand so we’d like to offer up our candidate for ‘Ugly

    Game of the Year’, a pairing as potentially painful to watch as any of the

    ‘Saw’ movies. In one corner we have the 1-7 San Diego State Aztecs, boasting

    the 105th ranked offense and 113th ranked defense in the nation, winners

    of just TWO games SU in their last 17 road trips and – get this – they’re a

    sea level team playing at a high altitude. And in the other corner we have

    a SMART BOX ‘Play Against’ in the 2-6 Wyoming Cowboys, losers of fi ve

    straight games where they were spanked by an average score of 41-6. Now

    HERE’S a favorite you really want to take to the dance: Laramie’s fi nest are

    a mind-boggling 3-23-1 ATS in their last 27 conference games, including 0-

    14 when off a loss of 7 or more points! We know we promise you analysis

    on every lined game but that doesn’t mean we have to pick a side. Hey,

    somebody has to win, right?

    W MICHIGAN over E Michigan by 21

    Damn… used to be there was just one ‘Michigan’; now there’s so many of

    ‘em we can’t keep ‘em straight. However, we do know that coach Bill Cubit

    of a certain Western Michigan team would love to lay a brutal beatdown on

    the Eagles from EMU this weekend. That’s because Eastern Michigan upset

    the Broncos 19-2 as 5-point home dogs last year, a loss that cost Cubit his fi rst

    losing season at WMU, and he’s ready to return the favor. We’d be looking to

    snap the rubber band here if we didn’t know the Broncos were an abysmal

    1-6-1 ATS in their last eight tries as home chalk. No thanks.

    TEXAS A&M over Colorado by 1

    Last week we told you the Colorado brain trust bestowed a contract

    extension on struggling headman Dan Hawkins, presumably in the hopes

    that it would inspire him and his team to achieve more positive results. Guess

    what? It didn’t work. The Buffs got massacred at Missouri, 58-0, the fi rst time

    in 243 games that Colorado failed to score. Lord knows CU coach Hawkins

    needs another game away from Boulder before he has to justify his pay raise

    in front of the home folks and he’ll at least have a shot at trading punches

    with a disappointing A&M team (both squads 1-3 in the Big 12 TY). The ATS

    archives lead us in the herd’s direction: Colorado has cashed four straight in

    the series (3-0 ATS away) while the Aggies are an abominable 2-14 ATS as

    single-digit conference home chalk and a miserable 3-8 ATS off a SU dog win

    (0-4 if their foe is off a loss). But honestly, folks… do you really want to risk

    your hard-earned money on a pair of teams that got ripped for a combined

    93 points and 1065 yards last week? Didn’t think so.

    Pittsburgh over NOTRE DAME by 3

    We got an email from Pitt’s Dave Wannstedt asking us to please start bashing

    him again. Why? Last week we got off his back for one issue and tried to

    pay him a compliment – then his Panthers went out and got eviscerated by

    mediocre Rutgers, 54-34 (Knights’ QB Mike Teel, who couldn’t throw a rock

    in the ocean all season, connected on a school record SIX touchdown passes).

    Meanwhile, Charlie Weis and rejuvenated Notre Dame were busy driving a

    33-7 nail into former Irish leader Ty Willingham’s coaching coffi n at Seattle.

    After those disparate results, it’s no surprise to see Weis and company laying 6

    points at South Bend, right? Check out this info and your enthusiasm for the

    favorite may dim somewhat: Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS at home versus the Big

    East, 1-4 ATS home before back-to-back road games and the Weis-man is 3-9

    ATS as home chalk off a win of 7 or more points. Whew! Pittsburgh is a ‘Play

    On’ team in this week’s ‘Puttin On The Stats’ SMART BOX (page 3) and guess

    who Wanny made his Steel City coaching debut against back in 2005? That’s

    right, Notre Dame, who blasted the Panthers, 42-21, as 3-point road dogs. This

    looks like a dead-even matchup to us so we’ll pocket the points and pray.

    Fresno St over LOUISIANA TECH by 2

    To say that Fresno State’s 5-2 record this season is misleading is an

    understatement. Not only have the Bulldogs lost to a rebuilding Hawaii

    team at home, they also allowed Idaho to score an unthinkable 32 points,

    then had to stage an incredible rally against Utah State just to squeak by

    with a 30-28 win as 15-point road chalk. FSU’s Pat Hill has posted an 18-14

    SU record over the past two-plus seasons but he’s burned some major money

    as road chalk, going 1-8 ATS. That’s a ride you don’t want to take, not when

    Louisiana Tech is 3-0 as a home dog under 2nd year coach Derek Dooley.

    Besides, we don’t usually back favorites on the highway that are hiding a

    6-game ATS losing streak in the trunk. If you can’t drive your car to ‘El Paso’

    and avoid this latest battle of the Bulldogs, we suggest an investment in the

    Ruston breed.

    Hawaii over UTAH ST by 10

    If only they could all be this easy. Hawaii is not exactly the fi nely tuned

    instrument it was under June Jones and at fi rst glance, the Warriors laying a

    TD on the road looks to be a stretch. But when we stop and consider UH laid

    40.5 points at home against the Aggies last year, well… the ‘7’ doesn’t look

    so bad. Wait, it gets better: pathetic 1-7 Utah State has lost three straight

    to the Warriors, allowing 50 or more points in every game, and they’re a

    sad 0-12 SU and 3-8-1 ATS as home dogs of fewer than 25 points. You know

    what to do.

    S CAROLINA over Tennessee by 3

    Only once in the last ten years has Phil Fulmer’s Volunteers stayed in Knoxville

    for the holidays. That was back in 2005 and ol’ Phil could be looking at an

    instant replay if UT doesn’t take down the Gamecocks today. Tennessee has

    certainly had their way in the series lately, covering fi ve straight at Columbia

    and the overall visitor is an equally impressive 10-0-1 ATS. The Vols are also

    a 83-9 SU in November (35-4 SU away) and have cashed 10 of 12 tries after a

    double-digit defeat. Spurrier’s team has won four of its last fi ve outings but

    we’re not in any hurry to lay points in a series that’s seen the visiting team

    dominate – especially with the Vols’ great November slate. South Carolina’s

    0-7 ATS skein as a favorite playing with revenge seals the deal. Ride on,

    Rocky Top

    USC over Washington by 45

    What has happened to college football in the state of Washington? First,

    the Trojans lay 42 points to the Cougars at Pullman and promptly empty

    the stands with a 69-0 destruction that made those responsible for hiring

    coach Paul Wulff run for cover. Now the Washington Huskies show up in LA

    and the line opens at 43 points! That may not be enough to grab the cash,

    either, since USC owns a loss and must run up the score whenever possible

    to maintain its lofty BCS ranking. Not that we need further incentive but

    the Huskies – the only team in the land to yet outgain an opponent – are a

    ‘Play Against’ from last week’s ‘Behind the 8-Ball’ SMART BOX. The Trojans’

    6-1 ATS record against .100 or less PAC 10 opponents is the clincher. Better

    call out the animal rights activists because we might see some roasted Husky

    today. THIS JUST IN: Washington head coach Ty Willingham has offi cially

    been give the boot.

    OKLAHOMA over Nebraska by 24

    Ah, the good old days. Most of you whippersnappers reading this don’t

    remember that the annual Oklahoma-Nebraska matchup used to be one

    of the most eagerly awaited games of every season. Since the fi rst meeting

    between OU’s Barry Switzer and NU’s Tom Osborne back in 1973, these

    storied programs slugged it out 26 consecutive times in regular season play

    and fi nished in a 13-13 SU deadlock. Along the way, they combined for

    TWO ‘Game of the Century’ showdowns (Nebraska won in 1971, 35-31 and

    Oklahoma rebounded to win in 1987, 17-7) and stocked the NFL with some

    of its most outstanding players. However, following the realignment of the

    Big 12, this once-intense rivalry has lost a lot of luster. Since 2000, they’ve

    met just four times during the regular season and Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops

    has gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS against the Cornhuskers. This year Stoops gets

    his fi rst crack at new head Husker Bo Pelini and as the big number attests,

    he’s a good bet to improve to 7-1 ATS at Norman off back-to-back DD SU

    wins. Huskers are pointspread poison when they lose SU as a road dog off

    a SU win, going 1-12-1 ATS, and can’t trade points with the more effi cient

    Sooner offense. Lay it if you play it.

    Oregon over CALIFORNIA by 6

    Ducks will be in attack formation following last week’s 54-20 demolition of

    Arizona State and own the fi repower to plow through the remainder of their

    schedule. Mike Bellotti’s team has averaged an overpowering 30 PPG on the

    road during his tenure with Oregon and they’ll be thinking of last season’s

    fi rst loss, a 31-24 setback to the Bears as 7-point favorites at Eugene. The

    feathered ones are also a SMART BOX ‘Play On’ team this week, a lean that

    looks especially intelligent when we note California’s 3-9 SU and ATS mark as

    conference chalk of 7 or less points against an avenging foe. Add a dreadful

    4-18 ATS record for Cal from Game Six out in the regular season since 2005

    and we’re feeling smarter by the minute. Bear… it’s what’s for dinner.

    NAVY over Temple by 6

    Both teams have gone 2-1 SU in their last three games and still have a

    good shot at landing a bowl. The Owls have cashed in four of the past

    fi ve meetings with the Middies and Temple will benefi t from the return of

    starting QB Adam DiMichele (played in last week’s comeback win over Ohio

    U). For a team that’s gone 8-23 SU under coach Al Golden, the linemaker

    certainly thinks Temple has closed the gap between these two: Navy laid 21

    points at Philly last year and 32 points here at Annapolis in 2006. But the

    Midshipmen’s 0-3 SU and ATS mark as favorites in games before Notre Dame

    versus a foe off a win keeps us at bay for now.

    KANSAS over Kansas St by 14

    Kansas is fi nding out the hard way that last year’s glass slipper came with an

    expiration date. This time in 2007, the Jayhawks were a perfect 8-0 SU and

    7-0 ATS; now they’re 5-3 SU and losers of two straight, the last a humiliating

    home blowout to Texas Tech, 63-21. Both teams take the fi eld backed by

    some excellent numbers. Kansas State has scratched out an 11-3 SU and ATS

    series record and the Wildcats have cashed 11 of 12 games when playing

    off a SU conference loss of 21 or more points. KU counters with a super

    12-0 SU and 9-0 ATS log at home if .400 or greater taking on a .500 or less

    opponent and they’re also 9-2 ATS playing the second of back-to-back home

    games. With the spread currently at double digits, we’ll side with the crafty

    Mangino as his team looks to make amends for last week’s rare home loss.

    Texas over TEXAS TECH by 3

    If Mack Brown’s Longhorns get through this year’s Big 12 gauntlet undefeated,

    no one can question their appearance in the national championship game.

    Saturday’s test at Lubbock will mark the fourth consecutive week the

    Longhorns (8-0) will go up against one of the nation’s highest-ranked teams,

    following contests against Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State. Texas

    Tech is now #7 in the BCS rankings and head coach Mike Leach is 12-0 SU at

    home when undefeated. The Red Raiders are also 8-2 ATS as single-digit Big

    12 home dogs and 5-0 off consecutive road games. The Longhorns’ numbers

    are not befi tting of their lofty ranking: 0-5 after a home game against

    Oklahoma State, 1-5 ATS versus an .850 or greater conference opponent

    (Game 6 or greater) and 2-9 as single-digit conference road chalk. Brown has

    warned his No.1 ranked team about eating the ‘poison cheese’. Bottom line

    is the bait has been set as these two teams are on a ‘Collision Course’ and, of

    course, we’ll fade the favorite under all the pressure.

    PURDUE over Michigan by 7

    It’s fi tting that today’s game immediately follows Halloween because this

    is a Michigan team masquerading in Wolverines’ uniforms. The Dazed-and-

    Blue’s latest loss – 35-21 at home to Michigan State, Michigan’s fi rst loss to its

    in-state rival since 2001 – came a day after new coach Rich Rodriguez fi nally

    signed a contract that will pay him $2.5 million a year. The 2-6 Wolverines will

    need to win out to become bowl eligible and extend their nation leading 33-

    year bowl streak… but it’s not gonna happen. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers

    have fallen short of adding to the legacy of outgoing head coach Joe Tiller,

    derailing early en route to a 2-6 nightmare (“It wasn’t what I had in mind,”

    deadpanned Tiller). As with most Big 10 series involving Michigan, the

    Wolves have ruled of late, winning 19 of the last 22 SU. However, UM has not

    cashed a ticket in fi ve tries at Evanston when Purdue owns a losing record

    and the Michigan defense is ripe for dissection, having given up 42 PPG in

    their last three conference games (all losses). And just when it looks like Joe

    Tiller might be carried out of Ross-Ade Stadium in a casket, PLAYBOOK chips

    in by making him the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. Time

    for Purdue to take things back up to a boil.

    BOSTON COLLEGE over Clemson by 4

    Thanks to the events of recent weeks, this has become one tough game

    to gauge. There’s turmoil aplenty at Clemson where interim coach Dabo

    Swinney faces the near-impossible task of leading the Tigers to bowl

    eligibility. Since two of Clemson’s wins came over 1-AA teams, The Citadel

    and South Carolina State, the 3-4 Tigers must win ALL their fi nal fi ve games

    to make it to the postseason. Good luck! Even with a stable coaching regime

    in Tiger Town, BC has always given Clemmie fi ts, covering fi ve straight in

    the series. The Eagles have also compiled a 9-3 ATS mark at Chestnut Hill

    playing a conference opponent with revenge. Clemson does own a 6-1

    ATS mark as a dog playing with ACC revenge and maybe with a timely bye

    week, Swinney and company can cook up a few southern surprises for the

    beantown Yankees. You make the call.

    San Jose St over IDAHO by 17

    Talk about spoiling the moment. Idaho’s players got so excited by their

    7-0 lead over New Mexico State last week that they staged a team photo

    beneath the scoreboard, an idea that looked to have merit when the Aggies

    stormed back to take a 14-7 lead. But lo and behold, the Spud boys put

    up 13 unanswered points to actually win the whole game, thus rendering

    the earlier photo op meaningless. Now the Vandals look to win consecutive

    games for the fi rst time since 2006 – but it ain’t gonna happen. Rarely do

    teams off a SU double-digit home dog win perform at that same level the

    following week and, like Michigan State, Idaho is playing its10th straight

    game without the benefi t of a week of rest. The Spartans have won and

    covered all three meetings since coach Dick Tomey landed in San Jose and

    the visitors also bring along a dynamite 10-1 ATS record as road chalk. Just

    follow the instructions on the fi reworks package: light fuse and get away.

    Byu over COLORADO ST by 11

    Now that BYU’s perfect season is down the drain, the Cougars might just go

    through the motions until their season ender with Utah for the MWC cheese.

    However, that may be enough to get the job done against a CSU defense

    that gave up 392 yards to offensively-challenged San Diego State in a comefrom-

    behind 38-34 win over the Aztecs. But let’s not be too hasty to bury the

    Rams. Colorado State has been more than scrappy as a double-digit home

    dog of late, getting the bone in 11 of 15 tries. And despite its powerhouse

    persona, BYU owns a fl imsy 2-5 ATS record this season, including 0-3 as road

    chalk. Currently 4-4 and desperate to become bowl eligible for 1st year head

    coach Steve Fairchild, the Rams don’t have enough jam to pull the upset

    here but they could pick the pockets of a disinterested Cougars team looking

    towards late November.

    STANFORD over Washington St by 28

    Following a 10-3 debut in 2003, WSU coach Bill Doba sealed his fate by failing

    to post a winning season in his next four years at the helm, going 20-26

    SU. Folks, with the debacle currently underway in Pullman, those look like

    championship numbers right now to beleaguered Cougar fans. For a true

    indication of just how bad things are, let’s turn to the true measuring stick

    for badness, Syracuse coach Greg Robinson. After G-Rob’s fi rst 8 games with

    the Orange, he had engineered a 1-7 train wreck while being outscored by

    14.1 PPG in the seven losses. Now get a load of this: Wazzu coach Paul Wulff

    owns an identical 1-7 SU mark at this juncture of the season but his team has

    been outscored by an average of 58-6 in fi ve PAC 10 games this year (allowed

    63 or more points in 4 of 5 conference games)! Things are just as bad on the

    other side of the ball: throw out the 48 points the Wulff pack scored in their

    lone win over Portland State and WSU’s offense is grinding out an awful 9

    PPG. Now that we’ve set you up for a play on Stanford, we must tell you that

    the Cardinal is just 2-8 ATS as favorites with rest, 6-15 ATS as double-digit

    chalk… you get the idea. The bottom line is we can’t lay lumber like this with

    a mediocre team like Stanford, especially when Harbaugh’s boys have backto-

    back revengers against Oregon and USC on the horizon. Pass.

    Boise St over NEW MEXICO ST by 16

    With the Broncos now up to No. 11 in the BCS polls and one of only eight

    undefeated teams still standing, Boise State coach Chris Petersen will be

    doing his Al Davis ‘just win, baby’ impression today, knowing that a blowout

    of a scrub team like New Mexico State will do little to advance his squad in

    the rankings. With the Aggies still coming to grips with last week’s shameful

    loss to Idaho, most bettors will look at the 3-TD line and fi gure the Broncs

    can reach that margin in the fi rst quarter. Better think again: New Mexico

    State is a solid 4-1-1 ATS as a DD home dog of late, 4-1 ATS at home playing

    with conference revenge and DDHD’s off a SU DD road favorite loss are 4-0

    ATS versus a foe off back-to-back wins. Will Boise State continue to play their

    game or will they play ‘not to lose’? The pressure mounts…

    Kentucky over MISSISSIPPI ST by 3

    The Bulldogs nabbed just their third win of the season last week against Middle

    Tennessee State while Kentucky was putting on a ‘how NOT to play defense’

    clinic is Saturday’s brutal 63-5 annihilation at The Swamp. Today’s matchup

    pits two inept offenses (Kentucky gains just 300 YPG versus lined opposition

    compared to MSU’s 279 YPG) against two decent defenses (Wildcats allowing

    300 YPG against lined foes compared to 279 YPG for the Bulldogs). Thus, we

    have all the makings of an SEC ‘Snoozer of the Week’ in Starkville. If forced

    to choose, we’ll go with Kentucky: the bluegrass Cats were upset by MSU last

    year in Lexington, falling 31-14 as 14-point chalk, and UK also owns a 4-1 ATS

    series edge on this fi eld. Big Blue silences the cowbells today.

    Florida St over GA TECH by 1

    Kudos to the linesmaker on putting up a ‘tough number’ on this key ACC

    contest. At fi rst glance we were set to pounce on the Seminoles as a SMART

    BOX dog, especially considering they were 24-point favorites the last time

    these two teams got together. A lot has changed since then (2003) but the

    one constant has been the winning records of both schools the past ten

    seasons. The newest wrinkle has been the addition of head coach Paul

    Johnson to the Yellow Jacket staff. Considering Johnson’s 22-10-2 ATS dog

    log, it would be diffi cult dismissing the notion of taking any points being

    offered up in this contest. His Georgia Tech squad has failed only one time

    both SU and ATS this season, meaning the transition to his option offense

    hasn’t missed a beat. Florida State’s improvement has come mainly on the

    defensive side of the ball where its 247 DYPG is 115 yards better than last

    year’s unit. With Penn State idle, Bobby Bowden can move one game closer

    to Joe Pa’s career win mark (currently trails 381-379). It’s like we said, when

    you can make cases for both teams and have a diffi cult time pulling the

    trigger for either you have to give the linesmaker a pat on the back.

    LSU over Tulane by 31

    Think the loss of defensive coordinator Bo Pelini has had an impact on

    this year’s Bengals? You’d better believe it. After winning a National

    Championship with a nasty defense last season, LSU’s stop unit this season

    – sans Pelini – is allowing 8 PPG and 38 DYPG more than it did in ’07. The

    results speak for themselves as the Tigers are just a middle-rung SEC team

    this year. We would normally look to fade the Bengals in the middle of a

    conference sandwich but last week’s loss, and last week’s Smart Box, say

    otherwise. Besides, defending National Champs off a SU and ATS loss are

    31-16-1, including 19-5 if favored by 14 or more points. Despite the Green

    Wave’s staunch stats and LSU’s declining numbers, we would only consider

    backing the champs as they attempt to get back up off the mat for the

    second time in three weeks here today.

    Tcu over UNLV by 14

    The Frogs leaped to the forefront with a convincing win over previously

    unbeaten BYU two weeks ago, only to follow that effort up with a 44-point

    whipping of Wyoming last week. As a result they are ranked No. 13 in the

    current BCS poll and are anxious to move up with a win at Utah next week.

    Therein lies the problem. Not only is TCU likely looking ahead to next week’s

    battle for Mountain West Conference supremacy they will also be playing

    their 10th straight game without rest this season. While we’d normally hop

    all over their opponent in a situation like this, the fact of the matter is UNLV’s

    defense (441 DYPG) is more than twice that of TCU’s (219 DYPG), making

    this a tough pill to swallow. Sometimes medicine is the best preventative

    to warding off an infection. That being said, we’ll pop a tablet and pass on

    this matchup.

    SOUTHERN MISS over Uab by 7

    Two disappointing also-rans looking to turn their season around will go

    head-to-head in Hattiesburg Saturday evening with the loser all but dead

    in the water. When the Golden Eagles hired Larry Fedora to replace iconic

    head coach Jeff Bower they envisioned a better turn of foot. Instead they’ve

    developed a bad case of the gout, riding an 0-5 SU and ATS skid into this

    contest. To make matters worse, they are now touchdown favorites in a

    non-desirable homecoming role. We’d love nothing more than to bring

    the visitor in with some sort of noteworthy credentials but we can’t. That’s

    because the Blazers are 1-4 ATS the last fi ve tries in this series and 1-10 SU

    and 2-9 ATS on the conference road against an opponent off a loss. With

    bad numbers abounding for both teams, let’s make like the 2008 MLB season

    and say we’re outta here.

    UTEP over Rice by 3

    After being torched for 77 points and 791 yards against Tulsa last outing, the

    Miners needed a week of rest like a mattress needs a pillow. It was easily the

    most points ever surrendered by a Mike Price team. Refreshed and anxious

    to make amends, the Miners will take the fi eld with the comfort in knowing

    Price is 12-6 ATS in his career as a home dog against an opponent off a win,

    including 3-0 with UTEP. The other attraction in this game is the revenge

    motive that comes about from El Paso’s 56-48 loss at Rice as an 8-point

    favorite last season. It was part of a six-game season ending losing skid for

    the Miners, a point of contention you can rest assured in knowing Price has

    conveyed to this year’s troops. With the Owls still sleepy-with-victory from

    last week’s 25-point upset revenge win at Tulane, look for the favorite in this

    series to fall to 1-7 ATS in this Tempur-Pedic lie-down.

    ALABAMA over Arkansas St by 17

    In a world of sandwiches, this is a two-hander. And with it Crimson coach

    Nick Saban will have his hands full trying to keep his team’s focus on the Red

    Wolves and NOT the defending National Champion LSU Tigers due up next

    week. After a string of fi ve straight SEC tilts, including a win at Tennessee

    last Saturday, Alabama will need everything in its power to keep its center

    of attention on this Homecoming affair. With four wins this season, up and

    coming ASU needs two more to become bowl-eligible and will try hard to

    impress bowl scouts here today. Given the Elephant’s 3-18 ATS mark in its last

    twenty-one tries as home chalk, Arkansas State looks mighty meaty.

    LA LAFAYETTE over Florida Int’l by 10

    Thanks to the nation’s No. 1 ranked rushing offense (312 RYPG), the Ragin’

    Cajuns are breathing down the necks of Troy for the top spot in the Sun

    Belt Conference standings. La La’s net team stats, +58 YPG this season, are

    dramatically better than FIU’s -109 YPG net team stats. By our calculations,

    that amounts to 167 net YPG in favor of the host. No surprise to see the

    Panthers drop to 0-5 SU and ATS in this series.

    Troy over LA MONROE by 14

    After losing offensive coordinator Tony Franklin to Auburn in the off-season,

    the Trojans were expected to take a step back in 2008. That moonwalk never

    happened as Troy is averaging the same 34 PPG this season as last and is 5-2

    after seven games, identical to last year’s squad. This marks the road fi nale

    for the Trojans who return home to close out the campaign with a seasonending

    three game homestand. This also marks the LHG of the season

    for Monroe who is 0-4 ATS in home fi nales when facing a .400 or greater

    opponent. So the question begs: will Troy improve on its 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS

    mark as a road favorite here tonight? You betcha!

    Sunday, November 2nd

    C FLORIDA over E Carolina by 3

    George O’Leary is making a living, albeit not a very good one, working on

    Sundays these days. After last Sunday’s 2nd half collapse at Tulsa, his charges

    return home to host East Carolina in another C-USA Sunday night spotlight

    game. O’Leary has been at his best at home in conference games (28-15-3

    ATS) in his career, especially when he’s not favored (10-3-1 ATS). He’s also

    12-5 ATS as a conference home puppy with revenge (lost 52-38 as 3.5-point

    road favs at ECU last year). With the Pirates virtually sword-less as road chalk,

    1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS – including 0-3 this season – it looks like another ‘Sunday

    Morning Coming Down’ for another Sunday traveler tonight.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 30 2008 2:47pm
17. 0 likes

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

    INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

    The Florida Gators are 16-2 SU and 16-1-1 ATS

    in games off a SU and ATS win when playing with conference revenge.

    5* BEST BET

    Florida over Georgia by 17

    This is the part where all you folks who watched Georgia annihilate

    LSU last Saturday start shaking your heads and ask, “Are you really

    gonna give those guys a touchdown?” You betcha… and here’s why.

    The mighty Gators are 10-0 SU and ATS in this series when they enter

    off consecutive wins and the Urban legend is 26-10 as a dog or favorite

    of 7 or less points, including 13-2 when seeking revenge. Things look

    a little more grim for the Dawgs. For starters, Georgia coach Mark

    Richt is an unbelievable 0-18 ATS – the big zero – in games he loses SU

    when not taking double digits. In keeping with the goose egg theme,

    our powerful database tell us teams who beat defending National

    Champions are 0-8 SU and ATS as a dog in their next game since 1990.

    Oh, and let’s not forget that ‘entire-Georgia-team-rushes-the-fi eld’

    touchdown celebration in last year’s 42-30 Bulldog win at The Cocktail

    Party – you know Urban Meyer hasn’t. With Richt’s team a weak 2-7

    ATS against an SEC revenger, we look for the Gators to put the chomp

    on UGA, drag him under and execute the death roll… then win out en

    route to the conference title game.

    4* BEST BET

    Wisconsin over MICHIGAN ST by 7

    While the Spartans are still celebrating beating up on the neighborhood

    bullies, Wisconsin is in desperation mode. The Badgers need two more

    wins in their last four games to become bowl eligible, a surprising

    scenario considering their high early-season ranking. Wisky does fall

    into one of our favorite categories here: a long time series favorite

    now taking points. The boys from Madison have come favored in 10

    of the last 11 confrontations, including the last seven in a row and

    actually own both the better offense and defense. The Spartans are

    a feeble 1-7-1 ATS laying 24 or less points at home to a foe off a SU

    win and just 1-5 ATS home after Michigan when tackling a foe off a

    DD win. With Michigan State playing its 10th straight game without

    the benefi t of a week of rest, we’ll have to side with the underdog

    Badgers here.

    3* BEST BET

    UCONN over West Virginia by 7

    Connecticut played to its two biggest strengths, superstar RB Donald

    Brown and a rock-ribbed defense, to engineer a 40-16 rout of

    Cincinnati last week and climb back into the thick of the Big East race.

    However, that win garnered far less attention than West Virginia’s

    34-17 beatdown of SEC power Auburn, a scenario that makes us like

    the Huskies even more in this matchup. The Mountaineers have been

    camped at home for their last four games (all wins) but the fact is

    fi rst-year coach Bill Stewart is still a maiden away from Morgantown,

    losing SU as a road favorite against East Carolina and Colorado while

    scoring just 17 total points. By comparison, UConn’s Randy Edsall is

    a monster at home, going 12-3 ATS against conference opponents,

    including 7-1 if his foe is off a SU win. We don’t want to be accused of

    having a one-track mind but the previously mentioned ‘R’ word can’t

    be overlooked here. Last year’s horrifying 66-21 loss to the Mounties

    marked the most points allowed in Big East play under Edsall and you

    know he’s aching to settle the score. The Huskies’ stout 10-1 SU home

    record in November since 2002 tells us their pound of fl esh is about to

    be served.

    UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

    ARKANSAS over Tulsa by 3

    Despite a near universal sentiment that he fails miserably as coach

    at Arkansas, fi rst-hear Head Hog Bobby Petrino is starting to pull his

    Razorbacks together into a scrappy, competitive bunch. Arky’s last three

    games (1-2 SU) were decided by a total of just 6 points and Petrino

    is 12-0 SU and 8-3 ATS at home in his career versus non-conference

    opponents. Enter Tulsa: the immense pressure on the Golden Hurricane

    to remain unbeaten is magnifi ed by their appearance as road chalk at

    an SEC venue, especially when our powerful database informs us SEC

    home teams are 57-12 SU against C-USA squads, including 9-2 versus

    an undefeated foe. Tulsa got blown out here, 45-13, as 37-pt dogs in

    its last visit in 2003 and with the Hogs rooting out a profi table 9-2 ATS

    record at home off consecutive SU losses, we look for the Big Breeze to

    lose considerable velocity against a rugged bunch of underhogs. Woo

    Pig Sooey!

    Thursday, October 30th

    CINCINNATI over S Florida by 1

    These two teams were expected to contend for the Big East championship

    but following last week’s depressing defeats, tonight’s game takes on an

    air of desperation. USF fl opped as a road favorite at Louisville, done in by

    109 yards worth of penalties and a record-low EIGHT yards rushing. Cincy

    also took the bullet as road chalk at UConn, rushing for just 30 yards as the

    Huskies broke open a close game with 20 points in the 4th quarter. The Bulls,

    who were as high as No. 10 in the rankings, have now dropped two of their

    past three games and would have been a SMART BOX ‘Play On’ here had

    they showed up wearing the dog collar. They’ll arrive as favorites instead,

    so we’ll gladly take the points with a Bearcats team that has covered four

    straight in the series, winning SU as road dogs at Tampa last year. Check the

    status of Cincinnati QB Tony Pike – he started against Connecticut for the

    fi rst time since breaking his non-throwing arm back in September but did

    not return after halftime.

    Saturday, November 1st

    BOWLING GREEN over Kent St by 6

    We’ve seen some pretty bizarre stuff this season but last week’s road win by

    Kent State ranks right up there at the top. The 1-6 Golden Flashes limped into

    Yager Stadium, home of the defending MAC East champions, and dropped

    a 54-point bomb on the bewildered RedHawks – the most points ever scored

    against Miami Ohio on its home fi eld. Meanwhile, Bowling Green detonated

    a stink bomb of its own against Northern Illinois in a 16-13 defeat, running

    only 14 offensive plays in the second half (fi nished with 168 total yards on

    43 plays). So, if you’ll pardon the cliché, we really do have two teams headed

    in opposite directions here. KSU has won the stats in its last three games

    while the Falcons have gone just 2-6 ‘In The Stats’ this year, allowing more

    points and yards than they’ve tallied over the course of the season. With

    the BeeGees taking an ATS dump at home in their last three clashes with

    Kent State, we’ll take a hint from Lou Christie and look for lightning to be

    striking again.

    INDIANA over C Michigan by 1

    After getting smacked around for fi ve straight losses, the Hoosiers fi nally

    hunkered down and played like last year’s 7-6 bowl team, forcing fi ve

    turnovers to claim a 21-19 thriller over Northwestern (IU’s fi rst Big 10 win this

    season). Central Michigan also survived a close call, squeezing past Toledo,

    24-23, for the Chippewas’ fourth straight win. Now comes the problem. CMU

    is a laid-out-on-the-slab 0-17 SU against the Big 10 since 1993 – but the Chips

    did cover earlier this year versus Purdue. Indiana is a near fl awless 19-1 SU

    when taking on MAC foes – but that lone loss came this year against Ball

    State. Those are two big ‘buts’ so we’ll let you make the call here.

    Air Force over ARMY by 6

    This week’s ‘Perception versus Reality’ special. There’s no doubt that 2nd

    year coach Stan Brock has the Cadets playing improved football this year.

    After bottoming out in an embarrassing 22-3 setback to Akron, Army

    regained its confi dence in a 4-point loss to Texas A&M and the Black

    Knights have won three of their last four games since falling to the Aggies

    (4-0 ATS and 3-1 ITS). Similarly, Air Force has made a fl ight correction after

    losing at home to Navy, soaring to three consecutive wins. The question

    is does Army’s recent spike of success help keep the line in order or was

    it just a mirage against mediocre, at best, opposition? The bottom line is

    double-digit home dogs with a better defense warrant a strong look – and

    we’re lookin’

    Louisville over SYRACUSE by 17

    Revenge is a concept that’s frequently overused when handicapping football

    games. However, in this case, we feel it’s certainly worth mentioning. In last

    year’s Big East home opener for Louisville, new coach Steve Kragthorpe

    suffered one of the most humiliating defeats in his entire career, a 38-35

    crash-and-burn disaster against pathetic Syracuse – as 38-point chalk! Now

    it’s payback time and believe it or not, there’s actually some value to the

    Louisville side laying two TDs. Yes, we know double-digit road favorites

    off a SU home dog win are an anemic 25-42-3 ATS overall but bring ‘em

    in with a big revenge chip on their shoulders and they’ve posted a perfect

    7-0 ATS mark. Hey, any time we can get the superior team laying 24 points

    LESS than they did in last year’s meeting, it’s an offer we can’t refuse…

    especially when we note that Syracuse is 0-6 ATS as a home dog off a

    SUATS loss under Greg Robinson. One glimmer of hope for Orange fans:

    the school has fi nally admitted to forming a ‘search committee’ in their

    quest to locate Robinson’s replacement. For Syracuse diehards who have

    suffered through an 8-34 SU nightmare under this charlatan, the end can’t

    come soon enough.

    Miami Fla over VIRGINIA by 1

    Hey, if we convinced you that Louisville carries meaningful revenge into

    its contest with Syracuse, then Miami Florida’s trip to Charlottesville has

    to qualify as ‘The Mother Of All Revenge Games’. Remember last year?

    In the Hurricanes’ fi nal home game ever at the fabled Orange Bowl,

    they laid one of the biggest eggs in school history, losing 48-0 in front

    of a crowd that included some of the program’s greatest players. Rest

    assured, Canes’ coach Randy Shannon still wakes up in a cold sweat

    over that debacle and even though he has his team playing inspired

    football of late, getting even with the Cavs here may not be such an

    easy task. Despite a terrible 1-3 start, Virginia has somehow rebounded

    to win four consecutive games – including three over ACC foes – all

    as an underdog! According to our database, the Wahoos are only the

    FOURTH TEAM since 1980 to accomplish this feat and the other three

    went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the next game (2-0 as pick or dog; 0-1 as

    a favorite). With UVA’s Al Groh an outstanding 31-15-1 ATS at Scott

    Stadium (8-2 ATS off a SU dog win), we’ll see where the line settles

    before opening our wallet.

    ILLINOIS over Iowa by 4

    Neither of these teams is among the four Big 10 squads that own a winning

    record in conference play but a victory here would go a long way towards

    locking in a potential 2008 bowl berth. Confusing the issue is the fact that

    Iowa laid 21 POINTS on this fi eld to the Illini in 2006. So has Ron Zook’s team

    improved by 24 pts over the two years or has Iowa declined to that great a

    degree? The history book offers little help: the Hawkeyes have failed to cash

    in three straight trips to Champaign and they’ve covered just once in nine

    tries when playing off back-to-back wins. Illinois is a disappointing 2-6 ATS

    as chalk off a SU favorite loss so we’ll have to qualify our selection based on

    Illlini QB Juice William’s superior play and an ugly 0-6 ATS string of failure for

    the series visitor. Homeboys in a close one.

    MINNESOTA over Northwestern by 3

    We’re still shaking our heads in amazement over the incredible turnaround

    engineered by 2nd year Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster. In less than one

    season, the Gophers have gone from Foldin’ (1-11 SU in 2007) to Golden (7-1

    SU and currently 4th in the Big 10) and we think Brewster deserves serious

    consideration for national coach of the year. Minny has climbed to the #17

    spot in this week’s BCS poll – behind only Penn State and Ohio State – but

    after a pair of eye-opening road wins over Illlinois and Purdue, this looks to

    be a classic fl at spot on the Gophers’ schedule. Northwestern has bagged the

    cash in four of its last fi ve forays at the Metrodome and the Purple Cats are a

    solid 16-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back roadies. Minnesota has failed to

    cover in its last four tries when playing the fi rst of consecutive home affairs

    (0-3-1 ATS) – and we never like laying points with an upset winner against

    an upset loser. Since NU owns the better offense and the better defense, the

    points are the play here. THIS JUST IN: Wildcat RB Tyrell Sutton is injured and

    out for the season.

    WAKE FOREST over Duke by 4

    Take a gander at the current ACC standings and you’ll fi nd Duke nestled in

    its customary spot in the Coastal Division cellar. But unlike years past, seven

    games into the season the Blue Devils are proud owners of a 4-3 record

    after marching into Nashville last Saturday and stuffi ng Vandy, 10-7. Wake

    Forest also owns a 4-3 SU mark but it’s a huge step backwards for a program

    that won 20 games the previous two seasons and represented the ACC in

    the 2006 Orange Bowl. Yes, the wheels are indeed falling off for the Deacs:

    they’ve lost three of their last four games SU, ATS and ITS – and coach Jim

    Grobe has been wandering the sidelines wearing the same look of confusion

    we saw on former president Ronald Reagan before we learned he was

    suffering from Alzheimer’s. However, the ever-vigilant linemaker has done

    his homework, pricing Wake as a mere TD favorite after the Deacs laid 7.5

    points at Durham last year. New Duke coach Cutcliffe is 7-4 ATS off a SU dog

    win (including 6-0 if off a win of 4 or less points) and with his squad covering

    four of the last fi ve trips to Winston-Salem, we’re putting our dough on the

    Blue Man Group.

    OKLAHOMA ST over Iowa St by 27

    After taking #1 Texas to the limit in a 28-24 loss last Saturday at Austin,

    Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson fl atly stated, “If Texas is No. 1, then

    obviously we’re not very far behind.” Turns out the BCS boys are in

    agreement – despite the loss, the Cowboys remained in the poll’s Top 10

    this week at the #9 position. This week’s opponent, Iowa State, fi nally got

    its offense untracked and put 35 on the board against Texas A&M. Only one

    problem: the Cyclone ‘D’ got drilled for 49 points and ISU dropped to 2-6

    SU on the season (now 5-15 under Gene Chizik). The ATS gods do not look

    kindly on the road team in this matchup. Iowa state has sunk to 2-12 ATS off

    three or more spread losses and the Clones are further shamed by a 3-14 ATS

    failure as Big 12 road dogs of 15 or more points. In fact, there’s not a lot to

    like about Iowa State other than Oklahoma State falling prey to the dreaded

    BUBBLE BURST, a role that’s burned plenty of money. Think we’ll head to the

    saloon and sit this one out, padnuh.

    Missouri over BAYLOR by 17

    Jeez, if you think the Incredible Hulk is a handful when he gets mad, you

    should’ve seen Missouri last week. They carved up Colorado with all the

    precision and glee of a serial killer, proving to all that reports of their death

    were greatly exaggerated. Mizzou QB Chase Daniel tied his school record

    with fi ve touchdown passes, leading scoring drives on 9 of 11 possessions

    and the defense pitched its fi rst conference shutout since 1986. Few teams

    could have bounced back so strongly from a fi rst-round TKO against Texas

    and now the Tigers face the fi rst of four beatable teams to close out their

    conference schedule. Should they go 4-0, they may get another crack at the

    Longhorns. First they have to deal with Baylor and the ATS archives don’t

    have much to say for BU. The Waco Bears are 1-7 ATS lately as double-digit

    home dogs, 2-10 ATS in Game Nine and head coach Briles is just 1-7 ATS as a

    home dog of more than 6 points. But Missouri’s no bargain, either, posting

    a poor 1-3-1 ATS mark in its last fi ve tries as DD road chalk. The Bears are an

    improved team this year and they’re also a DD Homecoming dog, so we say

    take it or leave it.

    OLE MISS over Auburn by 1

    Talk about a ‘you couldn’t script this in Hollywood’ coaching matchup:

    we have Tommy Tuberville heading south to play his former school while

    new Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt just stuck it to his former employer the

    previous week, beating Arkansas on the road, 23-21. We have a suspicion

    Nutt burned a lot of electrolytes prepping for the Hogs and he may not be

    able to take on Tubs with the same intensity. That scenario would agree

    with the Rebs’ dismal 2-16-1 ATS log at home versus a foe off a double-digit

    loss – and Auburn’s recent 5-1 ATS series domination at Oxford. Even better,

    Aubbie has whipped Johnny Reb SU in 16 of the last 19 get-togethers and

    the three times they were made the dog, Auburn won all three outright.

    Hmmm… with Nutt off the one game he wanted the most and the Tigers

    standing a perfect 5-0 as dogs versus an opponent off BB ATS wins, maybe

    Tommy against his ole gang may be just what the Tigers need to snap a 7-

    game ATS losing skid.

    WYOMING over San Diego St by 1

    Election time is at hand so we’d like to offer up our candidate for ‘Ugly

    Game of the Year’, a pairing as potentially painful to watch as any of the

    ‘Saw’ movies. In one corner we have the 1-7 San Diego State Aztecs, boasting

    the 105th ranked offense and 113th ranked defense in the nation, winners

    of just TWO games SU in their last 17 road trips and – get this – they’re a

    sea level team playing at a high altitude. And in the other corner we have

    a SMART BOX ‘Play Against’ in the 2-6 Wyoming Cowboys, losers of fi ve

    straight games where they were spanked by an average score of 41-6. Now

    HERE’S a favorite you really want to take to the dance: Laramie’s fi nest are

    a mind-boggling 3-23-1 ATS in their last 27 conference games, including 0-

    14 when off a loss of 7 or more points! We know we promise you analysis

    on every lined game but that doesn’t mean we have to pick a side. Hey,

    somebody has to win, right?

    W MICHIGAN over E Michigan by 21

    Damn… used to be there was just one ‘Michigan’; now there’s so many of

    ‘em we can’t keep ‘em straight. However, we do know that coach Bill Cubit

    of a certain Western Michigan team would love to lay a brutal beatdown on

    the Eagles from EMU this weekend. That’s because Eastern Michigan upset

    the Broncos 19-2 as 5-point home dogs last year, a loss that cost Cubit his fi rst

    losing season at WMU, and he’s ready to return the favor. We’d be looking to

    snap the rubber band here if we didn’t know the Broncos were an abysmal

    1-6-1 ATS in their last eight tries as home chalk. No thanks.

    TEXAS A&M over Colorado by 1

    Last week we told you the Colorado brain trust bestowed a contract

    extension on struggling headman Dan Hawkins, presumably in the hopes

    that it would inspire him and his team to achieve more positive results. Guess

    what? It didn’t work. The Buffs got massacred at Missouri, 58-0, the fi rst time

    in 243 games that Colorado failed to score. Lord knows CU coach Hawkins

    needs another game away from Boulder before he has to justify his pay raise

    in front of the home folks and he’ll at least have a shot at trading punches

    with a disappointing A&M team (both squads 1-3 in the Big 12 TY). The ATS

    archives lead us in the herd’s direction: Colorado has cashed four straight in

    the series (3-0 ATS away) while the Aggies are an abominable 2-14 ATS as

    single-digit conference home chalk and a miserable 3-8 ATS off a SU dog win

    (0-4 if their foe is off a loss). But honestly, folks… do you really want to risk

    your hard-earned money on a pair of teams that got ripped for a combined

    93 points and 1065 yards last week? Didn’t think so.

    Pittsburgh over NOTRE DAME by 3

    We got an email from Pitt’s Dave Wannstedt asking us to please start bashing

    him again. Why? Last week we got off his back for one issue and tried to

    pay him a compliment – then his Panthers went out and got eviscerated by

    mediocre Rutgers, 54-34 (Knights’ QB Mike Teel, who couldn’t throw a rock

    in the ocean all season, connected on a school record SIX touchdown passes).

    Meanwhile, Charlie Weis and rejuvenated Notre Dame were busy driving a

    33-7 nail into former Irish leader Ty Willingham’s coaching coffi n at Seattle.

    After those disparate results, it’s no surprise to see Weis and company laying 6

    points at South Bend, right? Check out this info and your enthusiasm for the

    favorite may dim somewhat: Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS at home versus the Big

    East, 1-4 ATS home before back-to-back road games and the Weis-man is 3-9

    ATS as home chalk off a win of 7 or more points. Whew! Pittsburgh is a ‘Play

    On’ team in this week’s ‘Puttin On The Stats’ SMART BOX (page 3) and guess

    who Wanny made his Steel City coaching debut against back in 2005? That’s

    right, Notre Dame, who blasted the Panthers, 42-21, as 3-point road dogs. This

    looks like a dead-even matchup to us so we’ll pocket the points and pray.

    Fresno St over LOUISIANA TECH by 2

    To say that Fresno State’s 5-2 record this season is misleading is an

    understatement. Not only have the Bulldogs lost to a rebuilding Hawaii

    team at home, they also allowed Idaho to score an unthinkable 32 points,

    then had to stage an incredible rally against Utah State just to squeak by

    with a 30-28 win as 15-point road chalk. FSU’s Pat Hill has posted an 18-14

    SU record over the past two-plus seasons but he’s burned some major money

    as road chalk, going 1-8 ATS. That’s a ride you don’t want to take, not when

    Louisiana Tech is 3-0 as a home dog under 2nd year coach Derek Dooley.

    Besides, we don’t usually back favorites on the highway that are hiding a

    6-game ATS losing streak in the trunk. If you can’t drive your car to ‘El Paso’

    and avoid this latest battle of the Bulldogs, we suggest an investment in the

    Ruston breed.

    Hawaii over UTAH ST by 10

    If only they could all be this easy. Hawaii is not exactly the fi nely tuned

    instrument it was under June Jones and at fi rst glance, the Warriors laying a

    TD on the road looks to be a stretch. But when we stop and consider UH laid

    40.5 points at home against the Aggies last year, well… the ‘7’ doesn’t look

    so bad. Wait, it gets better: pathetic 1-7 Utah State has lost three straight

    to the Warriors, allowing 50 or more points in every game, and they’re a

    sad 0-12 SU and 3-8-1 ATS as home dogs of fewer than 25 points. You know

    what to do.

    S CAROLINA over Tennessee by 3

    Only once in the last ten years has Phil Fulmer’s Volunteers stayed in Knoxville

    for the holidays. That was back in 2005 and ol’ Phil could be looking at an

    instant replay if UT doesn’t take down the Gamecocks today. Tennessee has

    certainly had their way in the series lately, covering fi ve straight at Columbia

    and the overall visitor is an equally impressive 10-0-1 ATS. The Vols are also

    a 83-9 SU in November (35-4 SU away) and have cashed 10 of 12 tries after a

    double-digit defeat. Spurrier’s team has won four of its last fi ve outings but

    we’re not in any hurry to lay points in a series that’s seen the visiting team

    dominate – especially with the Vols’ great November slate. South Carolina’s

    0-7 ATS skein as a favorite playing with revenge seals the deal. Ride on,

    Rocky Top

    USC over Washington by 45

    What has happened to college football in the state of Washington? First,

    the Trojans lay 42 points to the Cougars at Pullman and promptly empty

    the stands with a 69-0 destruction that made those responsible for hiring

    coach Paul Wulff run for cover. Now the Washington Huskies show up in LA

    and the line opens at 43 points! That may not be enough to grab the cash,

    either, since USC owns a loss and must run up the score whenever possible

    to maintain its lofty BCS ranking. Not that we need further incentive but

    the Huskies – the only team in the land to yet outgain an opponent – are a

    ‘Play Against’ from last week’s ‘Behind the 8-Ball’ SMART BOX. The Trojans’

    6-1 ATS record against .100 or less PAC 10 opponents is the clincher. Better

    call out the animal rights activists because we might see some roasted Husky

    today. THIS JUST IN: Washington head coach Ty Willingham has offi cially

    been give the boot.

    OKLAHOMA over Nebraska by 24

    Ah, the good old days. Most of you whippersnappers reading this don’t

    remember that the annual Oklahoma-Nebraska matchup used to be one

    of the most eagerly awaited games of every season. Since the fi rst meeting

    between OU’s Barry Switzer and NU’s Tom Osborne back in 1973, these

    storied programs slugged it out 26 consecutive times in regular season play

    and fi nished in a 13-13 SU deadlock. Along the way, they combined for

    TWO ‘Game of the Century’ showdowns (Nebraska won in 1971, 35-31 and

    Oklahoma rebounded to win in 1987, 17-7) and stocked the NFL with some

    of its most outstanding players. However, following the realignment of the

    Big 12, this once-intense rivalry has lost a lot of luster. Since 2000, they’ve

    met just four times during the regular season and Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops

    has gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS against the Cornhuskers. This year Stoops gets

    his fi rst crack at new head Husker Bo Pelini and as the big number attests,

    he’s a good bet to improve to 7-1 ATS at Norman off back-to-back DD SU

    wins. Huskers are pointspread poison when they lose SU as a road dog off

    a SU win, going 1-12-1 ATS, and can’t trade points with the more effi cient

    Sooner offense. Lay it if you play it.

    Oregon over CALIFORNIA by 6

    Ducks will be in attack formation following last week’s 54-20 demolition of

    Arizona State and own the fi repower to plow through the remainder of their

    schedule. Mike Bellotti’s team has averaged an overpowering 30 PPG on the

    road during his tenure with Oregon and they’ll be thinking of last season’s

    fi rst loss, a 31-24 setback to the Bears as 7-point favorites at Eugene. The

    feathered ones are also a SMART BOX ‘Play On’ team this week, a lean that

    looks especially intelligent when we note California’s 3-9 SU and ATS mark as

    conference chalk of 7 or less points against an avenging foe. Add a dreadful

    4-18 ATS record for Cal from Game Six out in the regular season since 2005

    and we’re feeling smarter by the minute. Bear… it’s what’s for dinner.

    NAVY over Temple by 6

    Both teams have gone 2-1 SU in their last three games and still have a

    good shot at landing a bowl. The Owls have cashed in four of the past

    fi ve meetings with the Middies and Temple will benefi t from the return of

    starting QB Adam DiMichele (played in last week’s comeback win over Ohio

    U). For a team that’s gone 8-23 SU under coach Al Golden, the linemaker

    certainly thinks Temple has closed the gap between these two: Navy laid 21

    points at Philly last year and 32 points here at Annapolis in 2006. But the

    Midshipmen’s 0-3 SU and ATS mark as favorites in games before Notre Dame

    versus a foe off a win keeps us at bay for now.

    KANSAS over Kansas St by 14

    Kansas is fi nding out the hard way that last year’s glass slipper came with an

    expiration date. This time in 2007, the Jayhawks were a perfect 8-0 SU and

    7-0 ATS; now they’re 5-3 SU and losers of two straight, the last a humiliating

    home blowout to Texas Tech, 63-21. Both teams take the fi eld backed by

    some excellent numbers. Kansas State has scratched out an 11-3 SU and ATS

    series record and the Wildcats have cashed 11 of 12 games when playing

    off a SU conference loss of 21 or more points. KU counters with a super

    12-0 SU and 9-0 ATS log at home if .400 or greater taking on a .500 or less

    opponent and they’re also 9-2 ATS playing the second of back-to-back home

    games. With the spread currently at double digits, we’ll side with the crafty

    Mangino as his team looks to make amends for last week’s rare home loss.

    Texas over TEXAS TECH by 3

    If Mack Brown’s Longhorns get through this year’s Big 12 gauntlet undefeated,

    no one can question their appearance in the national championship game.

    Saturday’s test at Lubbock will mark the fourth consecutive week the

    Longhorns (8-0) will go up against one of the nation’s highest-ranked teams,

    following contests against Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State. Texas

    Tech is now #7 in the BCS rankings and head coach Mike Leach is 12-0 SU at

    home when undefeated. The Red Raiders are also 8-2 ATS as single-digit Big

    12 home dogs and 5-0 off consecutive road games. The Longhorns’ numbers

    are not befi tting of their lofty ranking: 0-5 after a home game against

    Oklahoma State, 1-5 ATS versus an .850 or greater conference opponent

    (Game 6 or greater) and 2-9 as single-digit conference road chalk. Brown has

    warned his No.1 ranked team about eating the ‘poison cheese’. Bottom line

    is the bait has been set as these two teams are on a ‘Collision Course’ and, of

    course, we’ll fade the favorite under all the pressure.

    PURDUE over Michigan by 7

    It’s fi tting that today’s game immediately follows Halloween because this

    is a Michigan team masquerading in Wolverines’ uniforms. The Dazed-and-

    Blue’s latest loss – 35-21 at home to Michigan State, Michigan’s fi rst loss to its

    in-state rival since 2001 – came a day after new coach Rich Rodriguez fi nally

    signed a contract that will pay him $2.5 million a year. The 2-6 Wolverines will

    need to win out to become bowl eligible and extend their nation leading 33-

    year bowl streak… but it’s not gonna happen. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers

    have fallen short of adding to the legacy of outgoing head coach Joe Tiller,

    derailing early en route to a 2-6 nightmare (“It wasn’t what I had in mind,”

    deadpanned Tiller). As with most Big 10 series involving Michigan, the

    Wolves have ruled of late, winning 19 of the last 22 SU. However, UM has not

    cashed a ticket in fi ve tries at Evanston when Purdue owns a losing record

    and the Michigan defense is ripe for dissection, having given up 42 PPG in

    their last three conference games (all losses). And just when it looks like Joe

    Tiller might be carried out of Ross-Ade Stadium in a casket, PLAYBOOK chips

    in by making him the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. Time

    for Purdue to take things back up to a boil.

    BOSTON COLLEGE over Clemson by 4

    Thanks to the events of recent weeks, this has become one tough game

    to gauge. There’s turmoil aplenty at Clemson where interim coach Dabo

    Swinney faces the near-impossible task of leading the Tigers to bowl

    eligibility. Since two of Clemson’s wins came over 1-AA teams, The Citadel

    and South Carolina State, the 3-4 Tigers must win ALL their fi nal fi ve games

    to make it to the postseason. Good luck! Even with a stable coaching regime

    in Tiger Town, BC has always given Clemmie fi ts, covering fi ve straight in

    the series. The Eagles have also compiled a 9-3 ATS mark at Chestnut Hill

    playing a conference opponent with revenge. Clemson does own a 6-1

    ATS mark as a dog playing with ACC revenge and maybe with a timely bye

    week, Swinney and company can cook up a few southern surprises for the

    beantown Yankees. You make the call.

    San Jose St over IDAHO by 17

    Talk about spoiling the moment. Idaho’s players got so excited by their

    7-0 lead over New Mexico State last week that they staged a team photo

    beneath the scoreboard, an idea that looked to have merit when the Aggies

    stormed back to take a 14-7 lead. But lo and behold, the Spud boys put

    up 13 unanswered points to actually win the whole game, thus rendering

    the earlier photo op meaningless. Now the Vandals look to win consecutive

    games for the fi rst time since 2006 – but it ain’t gonna happen. Rarely do

    teams off a SU double-digit home dog win perform at that same level the

    following week and, like Michigan State, Idaho is playing its10th straight

    game without the benefi t of a week of rest. The Spartans have won and

    covered all three meetings since coach Dick Tomey landed in San Jose and

    the visitors also bring along a dynamite 10-1 ATS record as road chalk. Just

    follow the instructions on the fi reworks package: light fuse and get away.

    Byu over COLORADO ST by 11

    Now that BYU’s perfect season is down the drain, the Cougars might just go

    through the motions until their season ender with Utah for the MWC cheese.

    However, that may be enough to get the job done against a CSU defense

    that gave up 392 yards to offensively-challenged San Diego State in a comefrom-

    behind 38-34 win over the Aztecs. But let’s not be too hasty to bury the

    Rams. Colorado State has been more than scrappy as a double-digit home

    dog of late, getting the bone in 11 of 15 tries. And despite its powerhouse

    persona, BYU owns a fl imsy 2-5 ATS record this season, including 0-3 as road

    chalk. Currently 4-4 and desperate to become bowl eligible for 1st year head

    coach Steve Fairchild, the Rams don’t have enough jam to pull the upset

    here but they could pick the pockets of a disinterested Cougars team looking

    towards late November.

    STANFORD over Washington St by 28

    Following a 10-3 debut in 2003, WSU coach Bill Doba sealed his fate by failing

    to post a winning season in his next four years at the helm, going 20-26

    SU. Folks, with the debacle currently underway in Pullman, those look like

    championship numbers right now to beleaguered Cougar fans. For a true

    indication of just how bad things are, let’s turn to the true measuring stick

    for badness, Syracuse coach Greg Robinson. After G-Rob’s fi rst 8 games with

    the Orange, he had engineered a 1-7 train wreck while being outscored by

    14.1 PPG in the seven losses. Now get a load of this: Wazzu coach Paul Wulff

    owns an identical 1-7 SU mark at this juncture of the season but his team has

    been outscored by an average of 58-6 in fi ve PAC 10 games this year (allowed

    63 or more points in 4 of 5 conference games)! Things are just as bad on the

    other side of the ball: throw out the 48 points the Wulff pack scored in their

    lone win over Portland State and WSU’s offense is grinding out an awful 9

    PPG. Now that we’ve set you up for a play on Stanford, we must tell you that

    the Cardinal is just 2-8 ATS as favorites with rest, 6-15 ATS as double-digit

    chalk… you get the idea. The bottom line is we can’t lay lumber like this with

    a mediocre team like Stanford, especially when Harbaugh’s boys have backto-

    back revengers against Oregon and USC on the horizon. Pass.

    Boise St over NEW MEXICO ST by 16

    With the Broncos now up to No. 11 in the BCS polls and one of only eight

    undefeated teams still standing, Boise State coach Chris Petersen will be

    doing his Al Davis ‘just win, baby’ impression today, knowing that a blowout

    of a scrub team like New Mexico State will do little to advance his squad in

    the rankings. With the Aggies still coming to grips with last week’s shameful

    loss to Idaho, most bettors will look at the 3-TD line and fi gure the Broncs

    can reach that margin in the fi rst quarter. Better think again: New Mexico

    State is a solid 4-1-1 ATS as a DD home dog of late, 4-1 ATS at home playing

    with conference revenge and DDHD’s off a SU DD road favorite loss are 4-0

    ATS versus a foe off back-to-back wins. Will Boise State continue to play their

    game or will they play ‘not to lose’? The pressure mounts…

    Kentucky over MISSISSIPPI ST by 3

    The Bulldogs nabbed just their third win of the season last week against Middle

    Tennessee State while Kentucky was putting on a ‘how NOT to play defense’

    clinic is Saturday’s brutal 63-5 annihilation at The Swamp. Today’s matchup

    pits two inept offenses (Kentucky gains just 300 YPG versus lined opposition

    compared to MSU’s 279 YPG) against two decent defenses (Wildcats allowing

    300 YPG against lined foes compared to 279 YPG for the Bulldogs). Thus, we

    have all the makings of an SEC ‘Snoozer of the Week’ in Starkville. If forced

    to choose, we’ll go with Kentucky: the bluegrass Cats were upset by MSU last

    year in Lexington, falling 31-14 as 14-point chalk, and UK also owns a 4-1 ATS

    series edge on this fi eld. Big Blue silences the cowbells today.

    Florida St over GA TECH by 1

    Kudos to the linesmaker on putting up a ‘tough number’ on this key ACC

    contest. At fi rst glance we were set to pounce on the Seminoles as a SMART

    BOX dog, especially considering they were 24-point favorites the last time

    these two teams got together. A lot has changed since then (2003) but the

    one constant has been the winning records of both schools the past ten

    seasons. The newest wrinkle has been the addition of head coach Paul

    Johnson to the Yellow Jacket staff. Considering Johnson’s 22-10-2 ATS dog

    log, it would be diffi cult dismissing the notion of taking any points being

    offered up in this contest. His Georgia Tech squad has failed only one time

    both SU and ATS this season, meaning the transition to his option offense

    hasn’t missed a beat. Florida State’s improvement has come mainly on the

    defensive side of the ball where its 247 DYPG is 115 yards better than last

    year’s unit. With Penn State idle, Bobby Bowden can move one game closer

    to Joe Pa’s career win mark (currently trails 381-379). It’s like we said, when

    you can make cases for both teams and have a diffi cult time pulling the

    trigger for either you have to give the linesmaker a pat on the back.

    LSU over Tulane by 31

    Think the loss of defensive coordinator Bo Pelini has had an impact on

    this year’s Bengals? You’d better believe it. After winning a National

    Championship with a nasty defense last season, LSU’s stop unit this season

    – sans Pelini – is allowing 8 PPG and 38 DYPG more than it did in ’07. The

    results speak for themselves as the Tigers are just a middle-rung SEC team

    this year. We would normally look to fade the Bengals in the middle of a

    conference sandwich but last week’s loss, and last week’s Smart Box, say

    otherwise. Besides, defending National Champs off a SU and ATS loss are

    31-16-1, including 19-5 if favored by 14 or more points. Despite the Green

    Wave’s staunch stats and LSU’s declining numbers, we would only consider

    backing the champs as they attempt to get back up off the mat for the

    second time in three weeks here today.

    Tcu over UNLV by 14

    The Frogs leaped to the forefront with a convincing win over previously

    unbeaten BYU two weeks ago, only to follow that effort up with a 44-point

    whipping of Wyoming last week. As a result they are ranked No. 13 in the

    current BCS poll and are anxious to move up with a win at Utah next week.

    Therein lies the problem. Not only is TCU likely looking ahead to next week’s

    battle for Mountain West Conference supremacy they will also be playing

    their 10th straight game without rest this season. While we’d normally hop

    all over their opponent in a situation like this, the fact of the matter is UNLV’s

    defense (441 DYPG) is more than twice that of TCU’s (219 DYPG), making

    this a tough pill to swallow. Sometimes medicine is the best preventative

    to warding off an infection. That being said, we’ll pop a tablet and pass on

    this matchup.

    SOUTHERN MISS over Uab by 7

    Two disappointing also-rans looking to turn their season around will go

    head-to-head in Hattiesburg Saturday evening with the loser all but dead

    in the water. When the Golden Eagles hired Larry Fedora to replace iconic

    head coach Jeff Bower they envisioned a better turn of foot. Instead they’ve

    developed a bad case of the gout, riding an 0-5 SU and ATS skid into this

    contest. To make matters worse, they are now touchdown favorites in a

    non-desirable homecoming role. We’d love nothing more than to bring

    the visitor in with some sort of noteworthy credentials but we can’t. That’s

    because the Blazers are 1-4 ATS the last fi ve tries in this series and 1-10 SU

    and 2-9 ATS on the conference road against an opponent off a loss. With

    bad numbers abounding for both teams, let’s make like the 2008 MLB season

    and say we’re outta here.

    UTEP over Rice by 3

    After being torched for 77 points and 791 yards against Tulsa last outing, the

    Miners needed a week of rest like a mattress needs a pillow. It was easily the

    most points ever surrendered by a Mike Price team. Refreshed and anxious

    to make amends, the Miners will take the fi eld with the comfort in knowing

    Price is 12-6 ATS in his career as a home dog against an opponent off a win,

    including 3-0 with UTEP. The other attraction in this game is the revenge

    motive that comes about from El Paso’s 56-48 loss at Rice as an 8-point

    favorite last season. It was part of a six-game season ending losing skid for

    the Miners, a point of contention you can rest assured in knowing Price has

    conveyed to this year’s troops. With the Owls still sleepy-with-victory from

    last week’s 25-point upset revenge win at Tulane, look for the favorite in this

    series to fall to 1-7 ATS in this Tempur-Pedic lie-down.

    ALABAMA over Arkansas St by 17

    In a world of sandwiches, this is a two-hander. And with it Crimson coach

    Nick Saban will have his hands full trying to keep his team’s focus on the Red

    Wolves and NOT the defending National Champion LSU Tigers due up next

    week. After a string of fi ve straight SEC tilts, including a win at Tennessee

    last Saturday, Alabama will need everything in its power to keep its center

    of attention on this Homecoming affair. With four wins this season, up and

    coming ASU needs two more to become bowl-eligible and will try hard to

    impress bowl scouts here today. Given the Elephant’s 3-18 ATS mark in its last

    twenty-one tries as home chalk, Arkansas State looks mighty meaty.

    LA LAFAYETTE over Florida Int’l by 10

    Thanks to the nation’s No. 1 ranked rushing offense (312 RYPG), the Ragin’

    Cajuns are breathing down the necks of Troy for the top spot in the Sun

    Belt Conference standings. La La’s net team stats, +58 YPG this season, are

    dramatically better than FIU’s -109 YPG net team stats. By our calculations,

    that amounts to 167 net YPG in favor of the host. No surprise to see the

    Panthers drop to 0-5 SU and ATS in this series.

    Troy over LA MONROE by 14

    After losing offensive coordinator Tony Franklin to Auburn in the off-season,

    the Trojans were expected to take a step back in 2008. That moonwalk never

    happened as Troy is averaging the same 34 PPG this season as last and is 5-2

    after seven games, identical to last year’s squad. This marks the road fi nale

    for the Trojans who return home to close out the campaign with a seasonending

    three game homestand. This also marks the LHG of the season

    for Monroe who is 0-4 ATS in home fi nales when facing a .400 or greater

    opponent. So the question begs: will Troy improve on its 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS

    mark as a road favorite here tonight? You betcha!

    Sunday, November 2nd

    C FLORIDA over E Carolina by 3

    George O’Leary is making a living, albeit not a very good one, working on

    Sundays these days. After last Sunday’s 2nd half collapse at Tulsa, his charges

    return home to host East Carolina in another C-USA Sunday night spotlight

    game. O’Leary has been at his best at home in conference games (28-15-3

    ATS) in his career, especially when he’s not favored (10-3-1 ATS). He’s also

    12-5 ATS as a conference home puppy with revenge (lost 52-38 as 3.5-point

    road favs at ECU last year). With the Pirates virtually sword-less as road chalk,

    1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS – including 0-3 this season – it looks like another ‘Sunday

    Morning Coming Down’ for another Sunday traveler tonight.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 30 2008 2:52pm
18. 0 likes

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

    AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

    PLAY AGAINST any sub .700 NFL road favorite off a win if they are scheduled to face the defending Super Bowl champs in their next game.

    Play Against:

    PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

    ATS W-L Record

    Since 1980: 15-1 (93%)

    TOTALS

    5* Raiders UNDER

    4* Vikings OVER

    3* Titans OVER

    5* BEST BET

    Baltimore over CLEVELAND by 11

    Some teams benefi t more than others from scheduling gifts. The

    Ravens are one such club. When they visited Miami two weeks ago,

    they were recipients of the Dolphins being cast into the role of a

    favorite for the fi rst time this season. They also caught Miami off

    three consecutive pointspread wins, two of which were SU underdog

    victories. The result: Baltimore (+3) 27, Miami 13. As Yogi Berra would

    say, “It’s déjà vu all over again” my friend with the Browns in the

    same identical role as outlined above. Better yet, Baltimore brings the

    better offense and the better defense into this contest. Yes, it may be

    revenge for the Brownies from a 28-10 loss in Crabtown earlier this

    year but the fact of the matter is the Black Birds have made a living

    of late in this series, going 6-0 ATS the last six meetings. By the book,

    Baltimore improves to 8-1 ATS In November against an opponent off

    a SU underdog win while Cleveland dips to 1-7 ATS in Eleventh Month

    games when hosting a division foe. Again

    4 BEST BET

    WASHINGTON over Pittsburgh by 14

    A myriad of solid handicapping factors are at work in this Monday

    night fi ght and we’ll gladly step in and soak all of them up. The

    Redskins join fellow division rival Eagles and Giants as the only three

    teams in the league to have won the total yardage in all but one game

    this season (they won the stats in each of their last seven games). They

    are also a Monday night home team off a road game taking on a foe

    of a home loss of 7 or more points. Teams in this role are 24-2-1 SU and

    21-5-1 ATS since 1980! Tie that into the Steelers’ 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS

    record on the Monday night road against an opponent off a win and

    you can understand our glee. With new head coach Jim Zorn having

    shown a unique tendency to ‘play to the level of the opposition’ (4-0

    SU and ATS versus .500 or greater opponents; 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS versus

    less than .500 teams), we welcome you to the glee club.

    3* BEST BET

    Dallas over NY GIANTS by 3

    As banged up and depleted as the Cowboys are they still bring a lot to

    the table in this contest. And with the number bordering on doubles

    we’ll bite. For openers, Dallas has been a dog of more than 6 points

    three times in this series dating back to 1991. They won the money all

    three times. In addition, they are 10-2 ATS as road dogs when taking on

    a division opponent off a SU and ATS loss. More importantly, though,

    they own a Top 10 ranked defense that has held two of its last three

    foes to season low yards (Tampa Bay and Arizona). The G-Men return

    home off a tough, physical battle at Pittsburgh. And that’s a vital key

    in this contest as teams are just 7-14 SU and 5-16 ATS in games after

    facing Pittsburgh since Mike Tomlin took over the reins last season,

    including 2-9 ATS when favored. Dallas devours the Big Apple.

    MINNESOTA over Houston by 6

    The Texans fi nally hit the asphalt after having been camped out at home

    throughout the month of October. Thanks to a scheduling change due to

    Hurricane Ike, Houston becomes only the 6th team in NFL annals to take

    to the regular season road after having played four straight home games

    (FYI: the other fi ve went 2-3 SU and ATS, including 0-3 as dogs of 2 or more

    points). Meanwhile, the Vikings hope that their success in November when

    playing off a loss in games when they own a losing record continues its

    winning charm (8-0 ATS) and is enough to overcome Minny’s 8-game losing

    skein against AFC opponents. The Texans’ putrid 3-28 SU mark in their

    expansion franchise history in road games off a home game, including 1-11

    SU and ATS of late, does not bode well for Houston. Minny breaks its AFC

    cherry today.

    Jacksonville over CINCINNATI by 3

    No one ever aspires to be a pig. Like s**t, it just happens. Once you’ve been

    enshrined into the oinker society, there’s nothing you can do about it. It’s

    a label that doesn’t wash off. To gain admittance into the NFL ‘Ugly Pig’

    fraternity all a team needs to do is to lose its fi rst four games of the season.

    It’s just that simple. Try as they may, these teams are labeled as losers the

    rest of the season. Dress them up as home dogs in games off back-to-back

    SU and ATS losses and they respond with aplomb, having gone 33-9 ATS in

    this role since 1980! That’s the role for the Cincinnati Pigs, err, Bengals today.

    Considering Jacksonville is still looking for its fi rst ATS cover as a favorite

    this season (1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS), look for the underdog (8-0 ATS) to remain

    perfect in Jags’ games this season in the Pig Pen here today.

    Tampa Bay over KANSAS CITY by 10

    If you’re a professional hog-caller forget about calling on the Chiefs. Despite

    their sorry status they were not born into the ‘Ugly Pig’ family this season.

    A shocking win over Denver in Game Four saved them, momentarily, from

    swine-status this year. Instead, they are simply a fl at-out bad team. That’s

    confi rmed by the fact they have allowed season high – or 2nd high – yardage

    in EVERY game they’ve played this season, including season highs the last

    four. Speaking of statistics, the Bucs 5th ranked defense is the reason

    Tampa is +63 net YPG this season while the Chiefs’ 31st ranked defense is

    largely responsible for KC’s –137 net YPG this season. That’s a 200-yard net

    differential. No surprise to see the Bucs improve on their glittery 12-1-1 ATS

    mark in games off a SU and ATS loss when taking on a .600 or less nondivision

    foe. Lay the points, bucko.

    BUFFALO Over NY Jets by 6

    Key AFC East duel pits 5-2 division leading Buffalo against the 4-3 Jets

    with plenty on the line for both teams. Statistically both teams mirror one

    another. Biggest concern is a Jet defense that’s coughed up season high – or

    2nd high – yardage in three of its last four games. Key edge in the contest

    is the fact that Bills’ boss Dick Jauron is 10-2 ATS at home in games off a SU

    and ATS division loss in his NFL head coaching career, including 8-1 versus an

    opponent off a win. With that, Buffi e goes to 9-0 ATS as a home favorite off

    a SU and ATS loss in November. ‘No charge’ for this winning piece of advice.

    We’ll Bill you later.

    Arizona over ST. LOUIS by 7

    It’s amazing what three pointspread wins in a row will do to the complexion

    of a ‘pig’ (read: bad team). After opening the season 0-4 and gaining ‘Ugly Pig’

    status, the Rams fi red head coach Scott Linehan and promoted Jim Haslett.

    Since then, they’ve gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. As a result, today marks the fi rst

    time St. Louis will not be getting at least a touchdown from the oddsmaker.

    Never a good home dog (1-6 ATS last seven), the Rams are a paltry 2-15 ATS

    taking points as a division host when they own a losing record. The Cardinals

    9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS mark as road favorites from Game Eight out versus an

    opponent off a loss of 7 or more points cements it.

    CHICAGO over Detroit by 14

    Like the Chiefs, the Lions own the distinction of having allowed season high

    – or 2nd high – yardage in EVERY game they’ve played this season. Thus,

    the race is on for the ‘worst team in the league’ honors. The 425 yards they

    surrendered to the Bears in an earlier meeting this season was – surprise

    – the Bears’ best effort in 2008. The problem here is Chicago’s 0-7 ATS record

    as double-digit chalk against sub .400 opponents off back-to-back losses and

    the Lions’ 14-2 spread mark off a double-digit SU and ATS non-division loss.

    We’ll let the stat story fend us off the trends and keep our nose out of this

    foul-smelling affair.

    TENNESSEE over Green Bay by 6

    Forgive the Titans if they don’t show up for this game today after a 7-0 SU

    and ATS start to the season, including Monday night’s big win over former

    division kingpin Indianapolis. With the division all but locked up (before the

    mid-point of the season!), all that’s left is a PERFECT SEASON. After all, they

    are only 2nd team in NFL history to open a campaign with seven wins and

    covers in its fi rst seven games. The other? Last year’s New England Patriots,

    who went on to win and cover eight in a row (52-7 against Washington)

    before the pointspread wheels fell off. Meanwhile, the well-rested Packers

    look to stay atop the NFC North Division with Chicago knowing they are 7-3

    SU and 8-2 ATS as dogs off a SU non-division underdog win. Are the Titans

    this year’s ’18-0’ hope? Nope.

    DENVER over Miami by 3

    Lots of ammunition for both sides in this battle of two teams that appear

    headed in opposite directions. After starting the season with three straight

    wins, the Broncos have dropped three of their last four games. The best

    news of late has been the Bye Week as it allows Denver an opportunity to

    regroup. And regroup is what Mike Shanahan does best as evidenced by

    his sterling 15-5 SU and ATS career mark in games with rest, including 12-1

    SU and ATS against non-division opponents. Miami has numbers of its own,

    like 9-0 ATS as dogs against AFC West Division opposition. The bottom line

    for Bronco backers is Denver’s 0-7 ATS mark in its last seven regular season

    games in the series puts this one on hold. With that, we’ll make like John

    Elway and Dan Marino and pass.

    Atlanta over OAKLAND by 6

    Who would have believed the Falcons would be sent out as a road favorite

    with a rookie quarterback this season? That’s what happens when your team

    has won as many games (4) at this stage of the season as they did all of last

    year. And, unlike Cleveland above, Atlanta has worn the cloth of favorite this

    season (won 38-14 as 6-point favorites against the Chiefs in Week Three). The

    home dog Raiders, who have allowed season high – or 2nd high – yardage

    in their last three games, will try and improve on a nasty 3-15 ATS home dog

    record when taking 8 or less points at McAfee Coliseum. Back the team with

    the better running game and the better defense. Back the Falcons.

    Philadelphia over SEATTLE by 3

    The Eagles scratched and clawed their way to a 5* win for us in the Playbook

    last week when Andy Reid kept his brilliant record in games off a Bye Week

    intact. Today, however, they travel to the left coast to meet the suddenly

    awakened Seahawks in an unattractive AWESOME ANGLE ‘play against’

    situation (see page 2) with division rival and defending Super Bowl champion

    New York Giants up next. While no team in the league has played better ‘In

    The Stats’ than the Eagles (6-1 ITS) this year, we simply can’t ignore the fact

    that Andy is a not-so-dandy 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in 2nd games after the Bye

    Week when taking on a non-division foe. You know what to do.

    INDIANAPOLIS over New England by 10

    Pity Peyton. His team has lost as many games before the midway mark of this

    2008 season than it did in total in any of the previous three seasons. What

    to do? If you’re a believer, you don’t bail. If you’re a cynic you point out the

    fact that they could realistically be 1-6 rather than 3-4 were it not for a few

    late-game gifts from the Vikings and Texans. But as Bill Parcells likes to say,

    “You are what your record says.” Since we’re believers, we point out the

    fact that head coach Tony Dungy is 32-18-2 ATS in his NFL career at home

    with revenge, including 7-0 SU and ATS when playing off a loss of 7 or more

    points. With defending Super Bowl losers a miserable 25-50-2 ATS on the

    non-division road against an opponent seeking revenge, look for things to

    get back to the norm at Peyton’s place today

    TOTALS

    5* Raiders UNDER

    4* Vikings OVER

    3* Titans OVER

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 30 2008 3:04pm
19. 0 likes

    DIRECT FROM NEVADA

    WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH

    FIRST HALF FOOTBALL BETS A GROWING TREND IN NEVADA SPORTS WAGERING

    When I mentioned the other day that Big 12 totals went 6-0 to the Over in the first half this past weekend, it got me to thinking that I hadn't talked much about first halves this year.

    I'd have to say this is one of the fastest growing sports betting propositions in Las Vegas and Reno. They've been around for a few years now. It took awhile for the public to show any interest. Now they're clamoring for them! Give the public a chance to throw their money at something, and they'll eventually come around.

    Should YOU be playing first halves? I definitely think so. I have to admit though that these are more popular with the public right now than the sharps (professional wagerers). I want you to think like a sharp, and act like a sharp. That's surprisingly limited in this field.

    Why aren't sharps more involved?

    Probably most importantly, the limits are lower. Sharps bet big money, and these aren't really big money options. You can still earn a very nice profit by making smart plays. Some guys just don't feel like grown men if they're making small bets. That's actually fine for the sportsbooks because it's just the books against the public then!

    A lot of sharps like to "read" the market. The market as it exists now is mostly on full game pointspreds. The first half lines get dragged along based on where the full game line is. You don't often find the first half numbers acting dramatically on their own.

    Old School guys like doing what they've always done. These seem new to them even though they've been around awhile now.

    Most of the Wise Guy action I see on first half lines come from betting stale numbers. If the full game moves up because of sharp action, but oddsmakers are too busy to adjust the first half line quickly...the Wise Guys will pop that stale number. This happens a lot on game day because everyone behind the counter is so busy. Big bets are coming in left and right. There's a huge schedule of action. It's easy to lose sight of the first half numbers when you're concentrating on everything else. Some sharps are taking advantage of this.

    I personally like handicapping first halves a lot. I think you get a truer read of the teams in every game because it's starter vs. starter the whole way. There are many coaches who show certain tendencies to try and start fast and put a game away. With totals, some guys like to push the tempo early in a game but sit on a lead late. The market tends to cut the full game lines in half. In reality, the first two quarters aren't really "half" of a game. Sometimes most of the damage is done early.

    I think you should consider spending more time on these props. This is a case where the sharps are wrong to spend so little time on them in my view.

    Consider:

    You have a smaller bankroll, so the limits aren't going to be an issue. You can probably bet the same amount on first half plays as you can on full games as long as you have access to them in the first place. Be careful not to overexpose your bankroll with the increased action. See if you can trim off some full game leans that you shouldn't have been betting anyway, and find some first half options that make a lot of sense.

    You watch a lot of games yourself. You wouldn't be reading this article if you weren't a football fan. You probably know many of the coaching tendencies in play that can be exploited. Here's a chance to win bets in the first 30 minutes that you may have been losing before in garbage time. How often has that happened to you? You jump out to a big early lead. You're covering most of the game. Then, the third team defense allows a touchdown in the last two minutes and you lose your bet. Focusing on first halves takes this headache out of play.

    Classic handicapping strategies that involve emotion (revenge, bounce backs, lookaheads, letdowns, etc...) often show up very strongly in the first half. That's when emotion has its biggest impact. If you use those methods, first half bets are right up your alley. Go over the strategies you like best and see if there are first half applications for them. I'm guessing there will be.

    In money management terms, you can press up your winnings quicker by playing first halves. If things are going well on a college football Saturday, you still have to wait for three or three and a half hours for the games to end before you can cash your tickets. With first halves, it's less than an hour and a half usually. You can reinvest those profits over and over again much more often with first half plays than with full game plays. During college basketball, some of the first halves are over in 50 or 55 minutes...giving you time to reinvest at the top of every hour!

    I do encourage you to look at these. But, I want you to be careful. It would be wrong to say that the public is having great success with first half bets. Like all things, they eventually bleed themselves to death because they're not able to beat the number over time. You need to be smarter than the public in making your choices. I trust that you can pull that off. This is an area where smart handicapping can make YOU the sharp on a landscape where most actual sharps haven't shown up yet.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 30 2008 6:06pm
20. 0 likes

    ACE ACE 1 (2000+ 1-0) (5-2) (22-13) MICHIGAN STATE -- florida state, florida

    ATS 2 (20* 2-0) (10-6) (25-26) 25* GOY UL LAFAYETTE - 7 SO CAROLINA - 6 miss state, texas - 5 arkansas

    BEN BURNS 1 (14-12) (17-17) WAC GOY UTAH STATE --- PAC 10 GAME OF MONTH ARIZONA STATE

    BIG AL 1 (6-4) (3* 26-15) GAME OF MONTH TEXAS TECH -- NORTHWESTERN

    BANKER 4 (500* 2-3) (400* 8-6) (8-14) indiana

    BILL BAILEY 5 (100* 4-5) (7-12) 100 FRESNO STATE

    BLAZER (4* 4-5) (3* 13-12)

    BOB BALFE 3 (30-25) west virginia, baylor, texas, clemson

    BRANDON LANG 2 (30* 0-1) (20* 6-3) (22-17) 15 florida state, florida -- 6 PT teaser oregon state/minnesota

    CAJUN SPORTS 2 (5* 3-5) (4* 10-6) (19-14) 4 MIAMI FLORIDA - 3 uconn, northweswtern, auburn, colorado

    CAPPERS ACCESS 2 (24-26) army, notre dame, georgia, arizona state

    CASH 2 (4-5) (8-13) (25-22) FLORIDA, georgia tech, northwestern, texas tech, oregon, so carolina

    COACHES CORNER 2 (2-1) (1-4) (23-19) CAL OVER, boston college, hawaii, notre dame

    COWTOWN 5 (2* 5-4) (16-16) 2 TEXAS - 1 texas over, mississippi

    COMPUTER KIDS 2 (6-2) (21-16) INDIANA OVER, W MICHIGAN UNDER

    DAVE COKIN 1 (4-3) (29-30) (17-15) GAME OF MONTH IOWA -- TULSA, CAL, NAVY, RICE, utah state, colo state

    DAVE ******** 1 (6* 1-6) (5* 6-2) (27-23) 6 WYOMING - 4 west michigan, so carolina, ark state

    DIAMOND STAR 4 (3* 2-2) (2* 19-20) miami florida

    DIRECTOR 5 (1-0) (11-11) (18-19) KSU - central michigan, uconn -- KENTUCKY, WEST KENTUCKY -- ALABAMA, NAVY, NEBRASKA, troy

    DOC ENTERPRISES 1 (7* 0-1) (6* 2-1) (5* 4-6) (32-18) 8* BIG 10 GOY MICHIGAN STATE -- 4 clemson, texas, so carolina, temple, missouri, ark state

    DOCTOR BOB 1 (4* 1-0) (3* 16-6) (2* 12-7) 3 TEXAS TECH, LSU - 2 clemson, mississippi

    DOLPHIN (5* 1-1) (3* 23-25)

    EXECUTIVE (600+ 4-1) (400% 1-2) (18-14)

    EXPERT 1 (0-1) (5-11) (4-6) SOUTH CAROLINA

    FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (8-9) (6-7) MICHIGAN

    FINAL SCORE 1 (0-1) (5-8) (11-7) OREGON STATE

    GAME DAY 1 (5* 1-0) (4-2) (22-19) 4 BYU - 3 illinois, so carolina - 2 miami florida, oregon, wisconsin

    GARDEN STATE SPORTS 5 (5* 4-1) (19-8) 5 WEST VIRGINIA - 2 colorado, cal

    GOLD SHEET 1 (3-2) (5-4) (23-14) SUPER POWER 7 NOTRE DAME --- MINNESOTA, army, florida, boise state, lsu

    INSIDERS EDGE (40* 6-5) (16-14)

    INSIDE STEAM (6-2) (11-20)

    INSIDE INFO (2* 3-8) (15-18)

    JB SPORTS (4-12) (15-14)

    JEFFERSON SPORTS (21-21)

    JIM FEIST 1 (2-6) (31-23) (19-16) RIVALRY GOY GEORGIA --- GOY NEW MEXICO -- VIRGINIA, TEXAS AM, IOWA, DUKE, GEORGIA TECH -- kent state, lou tech, ark state

    KELSO STURGEON 2 (200* 1-0) (100* 3-0) (50* 6-1) (15* 5-2) 100* GAME OF MONTH OKLAHOMA --- 15 LSU --- texas tech, georgia, oregon

    LARRY NESS (3-6) (12-19)

    LT PROFITS (3* 0-1) (2* 25-17)

    LV INSIDERS (500* 3-6) (2-4) (16-12)

    LV LOCKLINE 4 (50* 5-4) (16-18) wisconsin

    LV SPORTS 7 (22-20) kent state, iowa, florida

    LENNY STEVENS 2 (20* 3-3) (20* 2-3) (12-16) 20 UNDERDOG GOY CLEMSON -- 10 texas am, florida, texas tech

    MAXWELL 2 (0-2) (1-2) (23-18) notre dame, navy, so carolina, miami florida

    MIKE NERI 7 (5* 1-0) (4* 11-5) (20-14) 4 MISSISSIPPI, FLORIDA, LSU - 3 missouri, texas am, texas tech

    MILLIONAIRES CLUB 8 (5-1) (8-3) UNDERDOG GOY TEMPLE - CAL

    NORM HITZGES 1 (3* 2-0) (2* 18-17) FLORIDA

    NORTHCOAST PHONES 3 (5* 2-1) (4* 5-2) (4* 14-5) (8-16) 4.5 WEST VIRGINIA -- 4 florida, lsu, wisconsin, arkansas

    NORTHCOAST TOTALS 2 (1-0) (4* 2-2) (14-9) 4 INDIANA OVER -- 3 boise over, purdue under, okla state under

    NORTHCOAST SMALL COLL (4* 2-2) (14-17)

    NY SPORTS (10* 4-1) (9* 3-0) (20-15)

    PHENOM 1 (23-12) virginia, notre dame, alabama, east carolina

    PLATINUM 1 (10* 8-5) (23-20) SOUTH CAROLINA, NOTRE DAME

    POINTWISE 1 (4* 7-8) (36-24) 4 FLORIDA, OREGON -- texas tech, oregon state, minnesota, so carolina, louisville, michigan state, stanford

    POINTSPREAD MAVEN 7 (20* 4-4) (17-18) 20 COLORADO - 10 byu, miss state

    POWER PLAYS 1 (30-21) TEXAS TECH, SO CAROLINA, NOTRE DAME

    PREFERRED PICKS 7 (5* 0-2) (4* 6-2) (10-10) 4 TEXAS TECH - 3 new mexico

    PRIMETIME 8 (7-5) (4-10) WAKE FOREST

    PRIVATE INVESTORS 2 (2-4) (25-25) SO CAROLINA, so miss, tcu, lsu, miss state

    PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 2 (5* 5-2) (4* 19-7) (3*18-29) 4 kansas state, minnesota, texas am - 3 texas tech

    PURE LOCK (5* 6-3)

    RAIDER 1 (22-18) texas am, california, nebraska

    REED HARRIS 2 (2-3) (26-27) CLEMSON, ARK STATE, TROY, NOTRE DAME

    RIGHT ANGLE (2* 1-3) (8-7)

    SEBASTIAN 2 (23-11) (100* 11-6) (13-27) 100 PITTSBURGH --- wisconsin, miami florida, ksu undern

    SCORE 7 (500% 4-2) (400% 5-6) (12-14) 500 OKLAHOMA - 400 FLORIDA, TEXAS - 300 notre dame, new mexico

    SCOTT SPREITZER 1 (6-8) (31-27) (8-9) TRIFECTA OF THE MONTH ARKANSAS UNDER, COLO STATE, OREGON --- KENT, ARKANSAS, UTAH STATE, GEORGIA TECH, COLO STATE, SO CAROLINA, oregon, tcu

    SILVER STAR (10* 4-3) (9* 0-1) (11-18)

    SLAM DUNK 1 (0-1) (6-4) (11-10) OREGON, TULSA

    ED SLICK 4 (2* 4-3) (37-29) virginia, uconn, illinois, temple, florida, boise state, purdue, kentucky, lsu

    SOLID GOLD PICK 1 (1-4) (22-8) GOY TEXAS AM

    SPORTS ANALYST 1 (2-1) (1-4) (9-14) TCU, byu, utah, notre dame, kansas state, texas tech, arkansas state

    SPORTS AUTHORITY 5 (4-4) (6-6) (5* 7-6) WYOMING - ILLINOIS

    SPORTS BANK (500* 5-2) (400* 4-2) (4-9)

    SPORTS DOCTOR 8 (100* 5-1) (4-3) (11-10) 100 BOWLING GREEN - fresno state

    SPORTS INVESTORS 8 (10* 4-5) (19-14) 10 CLEMSON - 7 byu, utah

    SPORTS NETWORK (1-2) (14-22) (41-25)

    SPORT TRENDS 1 (2-1) (2-1) (51-43) BYU, kentucky, uab over, rice, oregon state, troy over

    SPORTS UNLIMITED (25* 1-0) (15* 1-0) (10* 0-3) (7* 3-1) (17-13)

    STATISTICIAN 2 (100* 1-2) (9-10) (2-1) BIG EAST GOY UCONN --- BIG 10 GOY NORTHWESTERN --- ARMY, INDIANA

    SUPER LOCK 1 (7-13) FLORIDA

    SUPER SYSTEMS 1 (0-1) (8-10) (2-4) ARMY, FLORIDA STATE

    SWAMI 1 (1-1) (13-13) NOTRE DAME

    TOUCHDOWN CLUB 4 (10* 4-4) (9* 0-1) (20-14) minnesota

    THE COACH 7 (3* 3-4) (9-10) (4-11) 3 TENNESSEE - 2 TEXAS, ILLINOIS

    THE INSIDER 5 (1-0) (6-8) (3-8) DUKE

    THE SPORTS GURU 8 (40* 2-6) (16-19) 40 LSU - 30 colorado, tx tech

    TIPPS 1 (0-2) (7-7) (22-21) WEST VIRGINIA, OREGON, TEXAS, FLORIDA

    TOMMY THUNDER 5 (10* 5-2) (9* 0-2) (10-21) TEXAS -- air force, tennessee

    TONY WRIGHT (10* 2-4) (12-9)

    TOP DAWG 1 (40-17) kansas state, miami florida, idaho, texas tech

    TRU-LINE 1 (0-1) (5-2) (11-7) northwestern, missouri, oregon state, tennessee, kansas state, illinois

    UNDERDOG 8 (6-3) TEXAS TECH

    UNIVERSAL 1 (2-3) (28-26) ARMY UNDER - okla state under, kentucky, arkansas, so carolina

    USA SPORTS 1 (7-3) (23-26) COLORADO STATE, ALABAMA, idaho under, bowling green

    VEGAS CONNECTION 8 (3* 3-5) (2* 12-19) (1-3) 3 CAL - 2 WYOMING, MISS STATE

    VEGAS PIPELINE 1 (1-1) (13-16) (6-6) GEORGIA, SO CAROLINA, TEXAS AM, NOTRE DAME

    WAYNE ROOT 6 (5-2) (13-18) (20-15) BILLIONAIRE NEW MEXICO --- INNER CIRCLE TEXAS TECH --- NO LIMIT COLO STATE --- MONEY MAKER UCONN --- MILLIONAIRE lou tech --- CHAIRMAN iowa

    WILDCAT (7-2) (3-7) (4-5)

    WINDY CITY 4 (10* 3-5) (9* 1-1) (16-14) 10 WISCONSIN - 7 auburn - 6 minnesota

    WINNERS PATH 5 (5* 0-1) (2-1) (17-16) GOY FLORIDA _ michigan, texas am, utah state

    WISE GUYS 5 (3* 4-4) (15-19) (1-1) 3 FLORIDA _ 2 TEXAS, MICHIGAN

    WIZARD 1 (2-0) (7-9) (12-7) MIAMI FLORIDA -- SO CAROLINA

    ADDITIONAL ***

    B LEONARD 1 GOY NEW MEXICO

    SPYLOCK 1 5* UCONN

    MATT ***** 1 GOY MIAMI FLORIDA

    RON RAYMOND 1 BIG 10 GAME OF MONTH NORTHWESTERN

    NORTHCOAST ADD ONS 1 BIG DOGS army, duke, nebraska, kansas state, new mex state, unlv, uab, ul monroe -- EARLY BIRD byu --- PAC 10 stanford --- POWER PLAY mississippi -- BIG 12 kansas state --- ECONOMY CLUB uab --- FULL SERVICE LINE TV PLAY OF THE WEEK notre dame --- COLLEGE GAME OF WEEK louisville

    ASA 1 6* KENT - 5 TEXAS AM - kansas state, ark state

    R ******** 1 5 TEMPLE - 4 UL MONROE UNDER

    BRIAN HANSEN 1 GOY PITTSBURGH

    TONY GEORGE 1 florida, texas am, arkansas

    DONNIE BLACK 1 GOY MIAMI FLORIDA

    BOB AKMEN 1 8* OREGON STATE - rice, boise state, san jose, kansas, central michigan

    SPECIAL K 1 20* SOUTH CAROLINA

    GLEN McGREW 1 BIG 12 GOY TEXAS AM --- ACC GOY DUKE --- TV GAME OF MONTH SOUTH CAROLINA

    R SPACAMURO 1 OREGON STATE

    VIC MONTE 1 TEXAS OVER, LSU

    GAME PLAN 1 south carolina

    ETHAN LAW 1 UTAH STATE, NEW MEXICO

    STEVIE Y 2 PAC 10 GOY OREGON --- GAME OF MONTH NEW MEX STATE

    TIM TRUSCHEL 2 BIG 10 GOY WISCONSIN

    L DELGENIO 2 BIG 10 GOY WISCONSIN

    MIKE ROSE 2 5* IOWA

    MATT RIVERS 2 ARKANSAS

    TEDDY COVERS 2 6 IOWA - 4 nebraska, oregon - 3 kent, ark state, troy, south carolina

    J STERLING 2 GAME OF WEEK UNLV

    WINNERS EDGE 2 GAME OF MONTH IOWA

    PAUL LEINER 2 BOSTON COLLEGE

    E RYNNING 2 ACC GOY GEORGIA TECH

    GUS MARONE 2 ARKANSAS

    SAVANNAH 3 4* KENT STATE

    EDDIE ROMAN 3 TCU

    EZ WINNERS 3 5 WEST VIRGINIA - 3 pitt, texas tech

    SMART MONEY 3 pittsburgh

    DONN WAGNER 3 4* MIAMI FLORIDA -- GEORGIA UNDER, TEXAS AM UNDER, NOTRE DAME UNDER, KENTUCKY UNDER, PURDUE UNDER

    R VINCITORE 5 FLORIDA

    TOM STRYKER 5 BYU

    HEISMANN TROPHY CLUB 5 20 FLORIDA _ 10 michigan, pitt under, kentucky under

    NICK BOGDANOVICH 6 idaho, nebraska, oregon state

    FRANK PATRON 6 TCU

    NSA 6 20 FLORIDA _ 10 navy, pitt, florida state, alabama, texas

    RJ BELL 6 GEORGIA TECH

    CHARLIES 6 500 MICHIGAN STATE UNDER

    COMPUTER CRUSHERS 8 NON CONFERENCE GOY LSU

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 1 2008 1:14pm
21. 0 likes

    DIRECT FROM NEVADA

    WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH

    WHAT NEVADA SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

    Time once again for our weekly look at what the sharps are thinking about this weekend's NFL games. As always, we take the games in rotation order.

    HOUSTON AT MINNESOTA: Not much interest here. There was a tick up from -4 to -4.5 for the Vikings. Four's not exactly a critical number. The people who are playing the game like the Vikings. This is largely a pass for the sharps at this point. Nothing happening on the total yet. And, in a dome, it's not like anyone is waiting for a weather report. There may be some dog interest if the public bets the line up to Minnesota -6 on game day. This is a spot where there's no reason to bet early if you like Houston. So, Minnesota money acted early. Houston money, if it exists, is still to come. I'm not sensing much interest in this game from sharps at the moment.

    JACKSONVILLE AT CINCINNATI: Some sentiment for the home underdog and the Under. But the moves have just been a half a point in those directions so far. Cincinnati looked so bad last week that it's very tough to invest heavily in them at any price. Of course, Jacksonville doesn't inspire confidence as a big road favorite either. The spread of Jacksonville -7.5 or -8 will create some "basic strategy" teaser options for sharps. They like crossing the 7 and the 3 when they move the line on two-team teasers. They have become wary of road favorites this year though. Things haven't exploded for this strategy in 2008 the way they did in 2007. Another game with limited sharp action unless something happens from the public over the weekend.

    TAMPA BAY AND KANSAS CITY: Slight interest again in the dog and Under with a pricey road favorite. These just aren't the games that are in the wheelhouse of most sharps. Well, they like taking eight points with GOOD underdogs! The bottom of the barrel teams are so bad this year that there just isn't much enthusiasm for what used to be "value" spots unless the lines are double digits. Some guys are just playing blanket double digit dogs in the NFL this year and cleaning up. Neither Cincinnati nor Kansas City are that high yet. If the public bets the favorites up, sharps will step in on game day. Far from a sure thing. Kansas City is also in the teaser window if you're keeping track of those.

    BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND: Cleveland opened -2.5 and got bet down immediately to -1.5. That may not sound like much, but it's actually a sign of very strong sentiment on the underdog. A line of -2.5 is right near the field goal. If ANYBODY liked the Browns, it would have shot to -3 immediately. It shot the other way. So, the sharps like Baltimore to win this game straight up, and were happy to take any points. Note also that the Ravens are in the teaser window as a dog going up. You can move them up over the 3 and the 7 in two-team teasers at the current price. You know that's happening if the sharps like Baltimore to begin with. Sportsbooks haven't been hurt yet by teasers in 2008. This will be a Sunday (and Monday) they have to sweat.

    NY JETS AT BUFFALO: Surprisingly little action here considering how many transplanted New Yorkers there are in the area. Buffalo is -5.5 and 42. I have seen some Under money. I think this is a game where people are waiting for a weather report. It would be easy to love the Under if there's any wind or rain. If conditions are great, then Brett Favre's passing potential would discourage Under action. The sharps generally like underdogs in divisional rivalries. My read is that they're waiting to see if the public bets the line up to -6 or higher. Then they'd come in on the Jets. Since the public likes betting on Favre, that may not happen. Some games the sharps pass because they're just not interested. Others they pass early because they're waiting. I think this one's a "waiting" game.

    ARIZONA AT ST. LOUIS: Big move here on the Under. It's the first big move we've had to talk about! The total opened at 50, but is down to 48 as I write this. Sharps have been impressed with the St. Louis defense the past few weeks. They've shown well on that side of the ball against Washington, Dallas, and New England since theie bye. That also inspired some St. Louis money at +3. I'm now seeing increased juice in places if you want to take the dog. You can have Arizona -3 at even money instead of 11/10 in other words. Could St. Louis be the only serious threat to Arizona in the NFC West? Who would have thought we'd be asking that question a few weeks ago?

    DETROIT AT CHICAGO: We had a one-point move to the Under from 43 down to 42. This game has a double digit spread, so many guys will be on Detroit come game day. Many are already on now at +12.5. Others are waiting to see if they can get a +13 after the public starts to bet. Not that many games land on 12. So, it's worth it in their mind to wait and see if public money comes in on the favorite. If not and the line goes down, they lose a half point that doesn't matter so much anyway. Sharps aren't laying double digits this year (they hardly ever do anyway). So, it's Lions or pass in this one from their perspective. If weather becomes an issue here or anywhere else in the Northern cities, you'll see some Under money on game day.

    GREEN BAY AT TENNESSEE: Here's another total that's fallen two points. It opened at 42.5, but is down to 40.5 as I write this. I think we have another "waiting" game here. Sharps are looking to take the dog because the favorite has a short preparation week after a big Monday Night win. The public is prone to bet favorites, particularly those who just won on TV! I think the sharps are lying in wait here hoping for something as good as +6 on Sunday. If that doesn't happen, they'll take what they can get before kickoff. There's no reason to act now if you like the Packers. I'm not sensing that there's anyone who wants to lay the points with the Titans, or the line would have already moved up.

    MIAMI AT DENVER: We saw a huge jump on the Over right out of the gate. The opener was 47, and we're seeing 50 in places now. It's been a good year for the totals guys so that's a move you have to respect. Denver's defense sure has been bad this year. Miami has played high scoring games away from home too. I'm far from a totals specialist, but I can see the thinking there. Miami got bet at +3.5 on the opener. We're seeing Denver -3 at increased juice (12/10 or -12.5/10) right now. The public make back the Broncos at that price. If the line goes back up to 3.5 though, the sharps would come right back on the Dolphins. The expectation here from the Wise Guys is for a close high scoring game.

    ATLANTA AT OAKLAND: The Over got hit hard here, moving up from 39 to 41. Oakland's offense has looked very bad recently, so I'm not sure what the totals guys are thinking there. I'm not saying they're wrong. I'm just saying the move can't be because of the Raiders offense! There's been some action on Oakland +3, but not so much that you could call it a sharp play. Can't see much interest unless the public bets the line off a field goal one way or the other. I'd have to say this is one of the quietest weeks we've seen so far from the sharps. With the ugly games, and the "waiting" games, there's a ton of money that just isn't in action yet.

    DALLAS AT NY GIANTS: Early sharp action was on the favorite at -7.5. That's a huge move because it's near a critical number. If anyone liked the underdog, they'd take the hook without batting an eyelash. Money came in the other way, meaning strong sentiment on the favorite. Those betting think the line should be about -10 in other words. How could they think that about a marquee game? The Dallas offense has looked so bad without Tony Romo...and the offensive line is struggling so badly, that they just can't see the Cowboys playing well against this pass rush. Note also that the Giants are sitting in the teaser window, providing plenty of options for basic strategy users this week.

    PHILADELPHIA AT SEATTLE: Strong move on the Under here, as the opener of 44.5 has dropped to 42.5. At least the totals guys will have something to root for this weekend. We've seen a few big totals moves, hardly anything of interest on team sides. Note that not much has happened on this particular game line either. The sharps don't like laying points on the road. Many of the home dogs are so bad, or injured, that you can't invest seriously in them at this point either. There's a threshold in the power ratings that some guys won't go below, even though they like taking home underdogs in general. They're more likely to take a .500 type team as a home dog against a league power than they are a 2-14 type team as a home dog against anyone.

    NEW ENGLAND AT INDIANAPOLIS: Early sentiment for the dog and Under at lines of +6.5 and 45. We're now seeing +6 and 44. That's actually a small total move based on others that have been bet. The drop from 6.5 to 6 is bigger than it seems because it's so close to the seven. If the sharps thought the public was going to bet the Colts, they would have waited for a possible +7. The fact that they took +6.5 right away tells you they like the Pats, and aren't expecting any gift points from the public. I know some guys who are still pretty high on the Pats even though they've dropped so much in power ratings from last year. This is likely to be a popular sharp underdog Sunday night.

    PITTSBURGH AT WASHINGTON: Another two point drop on a total, as 38 moved down to 36 fairly quickly. Washington has played very conservatively this year, with a strong defense keeping games from getting out of hand. This move makes a lot of sense to me. Pittsburgh has already played low scoring games with the NY Giants and Philadelphia from this division too. Not much yet happening on the team side. I'm sensing that guys want the dog with as many points as possible. That might not be much. If the sharps liked the favorite, they'd have stepped in at less than a field goal. That didn't happen, which suggests another "waiting" game with underdog sentiment. We'll have to wait and see what the public does on Monday. You can usually count on squares to bet cheap home teams on Monday nights. Note that Pittsburgh is in the teaser window. Many sharps will include the Steelers in teaser round robins then buy back some on the Skins and shoot for a middle if things go well Sunday.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 1 2008 9:33pm