MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
The Florida Gators are 16-2 SU and 16-1-1 ATS
in games off a SU and ATS win when playing with conference revenge.
5* BEST BET
Florida over Georgia by 17
This is the part where all you folks who watched Georgia annihilate
LSU last Saturday start shaking your heads and ask, “Are you really
gonna give those guys a touchdown?†You betcha… and here’s why.
The mighty Gators are 10-0 SU and ATS in this series when they enter
off consecutive wins and the Urban legend is 26-10 as a dog or favorite
of 7 or less points, including 13-2 when seeking revenge. Things look
a little more grim for the Dawgs. For starters, Georgia coach Mark
Richt is an unbelievable 0-18 ATS – the big zero – in games he loses SU
when not taking double digits. In keeping with the goose egg theme,
our powerful database tell us teams who beat defending National
Champions are 0-8 SU and ATS as a dog in their next game since 1990.
Oh, and let’s not forget that ‘entire-Georgia-team-rushes-the-fi eld’
touchdown celebration in last year’s 42-30 Bulldog win at The Cocktail
Party – you know Urban Meyer hasn’t. With Richt’s team a weak 2-7
ATS against an SEC revenger, we look for the Gators to put the chomp
on UGA, drag him under and execute the death roll… then win out en
route to the conference title game.
4* BEST BET
Wisconsin over MICHIGAN ST by 7
While the Spartans are still celebrating beating up on the neighborhood
bullies, Wisconsin is in desperation mode. The Badgers need two more
wins in their last four games to become bowl eligible, a surprising
scenario considering their high early-season ranking. Wisky does fall
into one of our favorite categories here: a long time series favorite
now taking points. The boys from Madison have come favored in 10
of the last 11 confrontations, including the last seven in a row and
actually own both the better offense and defense. The Spartans are
a feeble 1-7-1 ATS laying 24 or less points at home to a foe off a SU
win and just 1-5 ATS home after Michigan when tackling a foe off a
DD win. With Michigan State playing its 10th straight game without
the benefi t of a week of rest, we’ll have to side with the underdog
Badgers here.
3* BEST BET
UCONN over West Virginia by 7
Connecticut played to its two biggest strengths, superstar RB Donald
Brown and a rock-ribbed defense, to engineer a 40-16 rout of
Cincinnati last week and climb back into the thick of the Big East race.
However, that win garnered far less attention than West Virginia’s
34-17 beatdown of SEC power Auburn, a scenario that makes us like
the Huskies even more in this matchup. The Mountaineers have been
camped at home for their last four games (all wins) but the fact is
fi rst-year coach Bill Stewart is still a maiden away from Morgantown,
losing SU as a road favorite against East Carolina and Colorado while
scoring just 17 total points. By comparison, UConn’s Randy Edsall is
a monster at home, going 12-3 ATS against conference opponents,
including 7-1 if his foe is off a SU win. We don’t want to be accused of
having a one-track mind but the previously mentioned ‘R’ word can’t
be overlooked here. Last year’s horrifying 66-21 loss to the Mounties
marked the most points allowed in Big East play under Edsall and you
know he’s aching to settle the score. The Huskies’ stout 10-1 SU home
record in November since 2002 tells us their pound of fl esh is about to
be served.
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
ARKANSAS over Tulsa by 3
Despite a near universal sentiment that he fails miserably as coach
at Arkansas, fi rst-hear Head Hog Bobby Petrino is starting to pull his
Razorbacks together into a scrappy, competitive bunch. Arky’s last three
games (1-2 SU) were decided by a total of just 6 points and Petrino
is 12-0 SU and 8-3 ATS at home in his career versus non-conference
opponents. Enter Tulsa: the immense pressure on the Golden Hurricane
to remain unbeaten is magnifi ed by their appearance as road chalk at
an SEC venue, especially when our powerful database informs us SEC
home teams are 57-12 SU against C-USA squads, including 9-2 versus
an undefeated foe. Tulsa got blown out here, 45-13, as 37-pt dogs in
its last visit in 2003 and with the Hogs rooting out a profi table 9-2 ATS
record at home off consecutive SU losses, we look for the Big Breeze to
lose considerable velocity against a rugged bunch of underhogs. Woo
Pig Sooey!
Thursday, October 30th
CINCINNATI over S Florida by 1
These two teams were expected to contend for the Big East championship
but following last week’s depressing defeats, tonight’s game takes on an
air of desperation. USF fl opped as a road favorite at Louisville, done in by
109 yards worth of penalties and a record-low EIGHT yards rushing. Cincy
also took the bullet as road chalk at UConn, rushing for just 30 yards as the
Huskies broke open a close game with 20 points in the 4th quarter. The Bulls,
who were as high as No. 10 in the rankings, have now dropped two of their
past three games and would have been a SMART BOX ‘Play On’ here had
they showed up wearing the dog collar. They’ll arrive as favorites instead,
so we’ll gladly take the points with a Bearcats team that has covered four
straight in the series, winning SU as road dogs at Tampa last year. Check the
status of Cincinnati QB Tony Pike – he started against Connecticut for the
fi rst time since breaking his non-throwing arm back in September but did
not return after halftime.
Saturday, November 1st
BOWLING GREEN over Kent St by 6
We’ve seen some pretty bizarre stuff this season but last week’s road win by
Kent State ranks right up there at the top. The 1-6 Golden Flashes limped into
Yager Stadium, home of the defending MAC East champions, and dropped
a 54-point bomb on the bewildered RedHawks – the most points ever scored
against Miami Ohio on its home fi eld. Meanwhile, Bowling Green detonated
a stink bomb of its own against Northern Illinois in a 16-13 defeat, running
only 14 offensive plays in the second half (fi nished with 168 total yards on
43 plays). So, if you’ll pardon the cliché, we really do have two teams headed
in opposite directions here. KSU has won the stats in its last three games
while the Falcons have gone just 2-6 ‘In The Stats’ this year, allowing more
points and yards than they’ve tallied over the course of the season. With
the BeeGees taking an ATS dump at home in their last three clashes with
Kent State, we’ll take a hint from Lou Christie and look for lightning to be
striking again.
INDIANA over C Michigan by 1
After getting smacked around for fi ve straight losses, the Hoosiers fi nally
hunkered down and played like last year’s 7-6 bowl team, forcing fi ve
turnovers to claim a 21-19 thriller over Northwestern (IU’s fi rst Big 10 win this
season). Central Michigan also survived a close call, squeezing past Toledo,
24-23, for the Chippewas’ fourth straight win. Now comes the problem. CMU
is a laid-out-on-the-slab 0-17 SU against the Big 10 since 1993 – but the Chips
did cover earlier this year versus Purdue. Indiana is a near fl awless 19-1 SU
when taking on MAC foes – but that lone loss came this year against Ball
State. Those are two big ‘buts’ so we’ll let you make the call here.
Air Force over ARMY by 6
This week’s ‘Perception versus Reality’ special. There’s no doubt that 2nd
year coach Stan Brock has the Cadets playing improved football this year.
After bottoming out in an embarrassing 22-3 setback to Akron, Army
regained its confi dence in a 4-point loss to Texas A&M and the Black
Knights have won three of their last four games since falling to the Aggies
(4-0 ATS and 3-1 ITS). Similarly, Air Force has made a fl ight correction after
losing at home to Navy, soaring to three consecutive wins. The question
is does Army’s recent spike of success help keep the line in order or was
it just a mirage against mediocre, at best, opposition? The bottom line is
double-digit home dogs with a better defense warrant a strong look – and
we’re lookin’
Louisville over SYRACUSE by 17
Revenge is a concept that’s frequently overused when handicapping football
games. However, in this case, we feel it’s certainly worth mentioning. In last
year’s Big East home opener for Louisville, new coach Steve Kragthorpe
suffered one of the most humiliating defeats in his entire career, a 38-35
crash-and-burn disaster against pathetic Syracuse – as 38-point chalk! Now
it’s payback time and believe it or not, there’s actually some value to the
Louisville side laying two TDs. Yes, we know double-digit road favorites
off a SU home dog win are an anemic 25-42-3 ATS overall but bring ‘em
in with a big revenge chip on their shoulders and they’ve posted a perfect
7-0 ATS mark. Hey, any time we can get the superior team laying 24 points
LESS than they did in last year’s meeting, it’s an offer we can’t refuse…
especially when we note that Syracuse is 0-6 ATS as a home dog off a
SUATS loss under Greg Robinson. One glimmer of hope for Orange fans:
the school has fi nally admitted to forming a ‘search committee’ in their
quest to locate Robinson’s replacement. For Syracuse diehards who have
suffered through an 8-34 SU nightmare under this charlatan, the end can’t
come soon enough.
Miami Fla over VIRGINIA by 1
Hey, if we convinced you that Louisville carries meaningful revenge into
its contest with Syracuse, then Miami Florida’s trip to Charlottesville has
to qualify as ‘The Mother Of All Revenge Games’. Remember last year?
In the Hurricanes’ fi nal home game ever at the fabled Orange Bowl,
they laid one of the biggest eggs in school history, losing 48-0 in front
of a crowd that included some of the program’s greatest players. Rest
assured, Canes’ coach Randy Shannon still wakes up in a cold sweat
over that debacle and even though he has his team playing inspired
football of late, getting even with the Cavs here may not be such an
easy task. Despite a terrible 1-3 start, Virginia has somehow rebounded
to win four consecutive games – including three over ACC foes – all
as an underdog! According to our database, the Wahoos are only the
FOURTH TEAM since 1980 to accomplish this feat and the other three
went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the next game (2-0 as pick or dog; 0-1 as
a favorite). With UVA’s Al Groh an outstanding 31-15-1 ATS at Scott
Stadium (8-2 ATS off a SU dog win), we’ll see where the line settles
before opening our wallet.
ILLINOIS over Iowa by 4
Neither of these teams is among the four Big 10 squads that own a winning
record in conference play but a victory here would go a long way towards
locking in a potential 2008 bowl berth. Confusing the issue is the fact that
Iowa laid 21 POINTS on this fi eld to the Illini in 2006. So has Ron Zook’s team
improved by 24 pts over the two years or has Iowa declined to that great a
degree? The history book offers little help: the Hawkeyes have failed to cash
in three straight trips to Champaign and they’ve covered just once in nine
tries when playing off back-to-back wins. Illinois is a disappointing 2-6 ATS
as chalk off a SU favorite loss so we’ll have to qualify our selection based on
Illlini QB Juice William’s superior play and an ugly 0-6 ATS string of failure for
the series visitor. Homeboys in a close one.
MINNESOTA over Northwestern by 3
We’re still shaking our heads in amazement over the incredible turnaround
engineered by 2nd year Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster. In less than one
season, the Gophers have gone from Foldin’ (1-11 SU in 2007) to Golden (7-1
SU and currently 4th in the Big 10) and we think Brewster deserves serious
consideration for national coach of the year. Minny has climbed to the #17
spot in this week’s BCS poll – behind only Penn State and Ohio State – but
after a pair of eye-opening road wins over Illlinois and Purdue, this looks to
be a classic fl at spot on the Gophers’ schedule. Northwestern has bagged the
cash in four of its last fi ve forays at the Metrodome and the Purple Cats are a
solid 16-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back roadies. Minnesota has failed to
cover in its last four tries when playing the fi rst of consecutive home affairs
(0-3-1 ATS) – and we never like laying points with an upset winner against
an upset loser. Since NU owns the better offense and the better defense, the
points are the play here. THIS JUST IN: Wildcat RB Tyrell Sutton is injured and
out for the season.
WAKE FOREST over Duke by 4
Take a gander at the current ACC standings and you’ll fi nd Duke nestled in
its customary spot in the Coastal Division cellar. But unlike years past, seven
games into the season the Blue Devils are proud owners of a 4-3 record
after marching into Nashville last Saturday and stuffi ng Vandy, 10-7. Wake
Forest also owns a 4-3 SU mark but it’s a huge step backwards for a program
that won 20 games the previous two seasons and represented the ACC in
the 2006 Orange Bowl. Yes, the wheels are indeed falling off for the Deacs:
they’ve lost three of their last four games SU, ATS and ITS – and coach Jim
Grobe has been wandering the sidelines wearing the same look of confusion
we saw on former president Ronald Reagan before we learned he was
suffering from Alzheimer’s. However, the ever-vigilant linemaker has done
his homework, pricing Wake as a mere TD favorite after the Deacs laid 7.5
points at Durham last year. New Duke coach Cutcliffe is 7-4 ATS off a SU dog
win (including 6-0 if off a win of 4 or less points) and with his squad covering
four of the last fi ve trips to Winston-Salem, we’re putting our dough on the
Blue Man Group.
OKLAHOMA ST over Iowa St by 27
After taking #1 Texas to the limit in a 28-24 loss last Saturday at Austin,
Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson fl atly stated, “If Texas is No. 1, then
obviously we’re not very far behind.†Turns out the BCS boys are in
agreement – despite the loss, the Cowboys remained in the poll’s Top 10
this week at the #9 position. This week’s opponent, Iowa State, fi nally got
its offense untracked and put 35 on the board against Texas A&M. Only one
problem: the Cyclone ‘D’ got drilled for 49 points and ISU dropped to 2-6
SU on the season (now 5-15 under Gene Chizik). The ATS gods do not look
kindly on the road team in this matchup. Iowa state has sunk to 2-12 ATS off
three or more spread losses and the Clones are further shamed by a 3-14 ATS
failure as Big 12 road dogs of 15 or more points. In fact, there’s not a lot to
like about Iowa State other than Oklahoma State falling prey to the dreaded
BUBBLE BURST, a role that’s burned plenty of money. Think we’ll head to the
saloon and sit this one out, padnuh.
Missouri over BAYLOR by 17
Jeez, if you think the Incredible Hulk is a handful when he gets mad, you
should’ve seen Missouri last week. They carved up Colorado with all the
precision and glee of a serial killer, proving to all that reports of their death
were greatly exaggerated. Mizzou QB Chase Daniel tied his school record
with fi ve touchdown passes, leading scoring drives on 9 of 11 possessions
and the defense pitched its fi rst conference shutout since 1986. Few teams
could have bounced back so strongly from a fi rst-round TKO against Texas
and now the Tigers face the fi rst of four beatable teams to close out their
conference schedule. Should they go 4-0, they may get another crack at the
Longhorns. First they have to deal with Baylor and the ATS archives don’t
have much to say for BU. The Waco Bears are 1-7 ATS lately as double-digit
home dogs, 2-10 ATS in Game Nine and head coach Briles is just 1-7 ATS as a
home dog of more than 6 points. But Missouri’s no bargain, either, posting
a poor 1-3-1 ATS mark in its last fi ve tries as DD road chalk. The Bears are an
improved team this year and they’re also a DD Homecoming dog, so we say
take it or leave it.
OLE MISS over Auburn by 1
Talk about a ‘you couldn’t script this in Hollywood’ coaching matchup:
we have Tommy Tuberville heading south to play his former school while
new Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt just stuck it to his former employer the
previous week, beating Arkansas on the road, 23-21. We have a suspicion
Nutt burned a lot of electrolytes prepping for the Hogs and he may not be
able to take on Tubs with the same intensity. That scenario would agree
with the Rebs’ dismal 2-16-1 ATS log at home versus a foe off a double-digit
loss – and Auburn’s recent 5-1 ATS series domination at Oxford. Even better,
Aubbie has whipped Johnny Reb SU in 16 of the last 19 get-togethers and
the three times they were made the dog, Auburn won all three outright.
Hmmm… with Nutt off the one game he wanted the most and the Tigers
standing a perfect 5-0 as dogs versus an opponent off BB ATS wins, maybe
Tommy against his ole gang may be just what the Tigers need to snap a 7-
game ATS losing skid.
WYOMING over San Diego St by 1
Election time is at hand so we’d like to offer up our candidate for ‘Ugly
Game of the Year’, a pairing as potentially painful to watch as any of the
‘Saw’ movies. In one corner we have the 1-7 San Diego State Aztecs, boasting
the 105th ranked offense and 113th ranked defense in the nation, winners
of just TWO games SU in their last 17 road trips and – get this – they’re a
sea level team playing at a high altitude. And in the other corner we have
a SMART BOX ‘Play Against’ in the 2-6 Wyoming Cowboys, losers of fi ve
straight games where they were spanked by an average score of 41-6. Now
HERE’S a favorite you really want to take to the dance: Laramie’s fi nest are
a mind-boggling 3-23-1 ATS in their last 27 conference games, including 0-
14 when off a loss of 7 or more points! We know we promise you analysis
on every lined game but that doesn’t mean we have to pick a side. Hey,
somebody has to win, right?
W MICHIGAN over E Michigan by 21
Damn… used to be there was just one ‘Michigan’; now there’s so many of
‘em we can’t keep ‘em straight. However, we do know that coach Bill Cubit
of a certain Western Michigan team would love to lay a brutal beatdown on
the Eagles from EMU this weekend. That’s because Eastern Michigan upset
the Broncos 19-2 as 5-point home dogs last year, a loss that cost Cubit his fi rst
losing season at WMU, and he’s ready to return the favor. We’d be looking to
snap the rubber band here if we didn’t know the Broncos were an abysmal
1-6-1 ATS in their last eight tries as home chalk. No thanks.
TEXAS A&M over Colorado by 1
Last week we told you the Colorado brain trust bestowed a contract
extension on struggling headman Dan Hawkins, presumably in the hopes
that it would inspire him and his team to achieve more positive results. Guess
what? It didn’t work. The Buffs got massacred at Missouri, 58-0, the fi rst time
in 243 games that Colorado failed to score. Lord knows CU coach Hawkins
needs another game away from Boulder before he has to justify his pay raise
in front of the home folks and he’ll at least have a shot at trading punches
with a disappointing A&M team (both squads 1-3 in the Big 12 TY). The ATS
archives lead us in the herd’s direction: Colorado has cashed four straight in
the series (3-0 ATS away) while the Aggies are an abominable 2-14 ATS as
single-digit conference home chalk and a miserable 3-8 ATS off a SU dog win
(0-4 if their foe is off a loss). But honestly, folks… do you really want to risk
your hard-earned money on a pair of teams that got ripped for a combined
93 points and 1065 yards last week? Didn’t think so.
Pittsburgh over NOTRE DAME by 3
We got an email from Pitt’s Dave Wannstedt asking us to please start bashing
him again. Why? Last week we got off his back for one issue and tried to
pay him a compliment – then his Panthers went out and got eviscerated by
mediocre Rutgers, 54-34 (Knights’ QB Mike Teel, who couldn’t throw a rock
in the ocean all season, connected on a school record SIX touchdown passes).
Meanwhile, Charlie Weis and rejuvenated Notre Dame were busy driving a
33-7 nail into former Irish leader Ty Willingham’s coaching coffi n at Seattle.
After those disparate results, it’s no surprise to see Weis and company laying 6
points at South Bend, right? Check out this info and your enthusiasm for the
favorite may dim somewhat: Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS at home versus the Big
East, 1-4 ATS home before back-to-back road games and the Weis-man is 3-9
ATS as home chalk off a win of 7 or more points. Whew! Pittsburgh is a ‘Play
On’ team in this week’s ‘Puttin On The Stats’ SMART BOX (page 3) and guess
who Wanny made his Steel City coaching debut against back in 2005? That’s
right, Notre Dame, who blasted the Panthers, 42-21, as 3-point road dogs. This
looks like a dead-even matchup to us so we’ll pocket the points and pray.
Fresno St over LOUISIANA TECH by 2
To say that Fresno State’s 5-2 record this season is misleading is an
understatement. Not only have the Bulldogs lost to a rebuilding Hawaii
team at home, they also allowed Idaho to score an unthinkable 32 points,
then had to stage an incredible rally against Utah State just to squeak by
with a 30-28 win as 15-point road chalk. FSU’s Pat Hill has posted an 18-14
SU record over the past two-plus seasons but he’s burned some major money
as road chalk, going 1-8 ATS. That’s a ride you don’t want to take, not when
Louisiana Tech is 3-0 as a home dog under 2nd year coach Derek Dooley.
Besides, we don’t usually back favorites on the highway that are hiding a
6-game ATS losing streak in the trunk. If you can’t drive your car to ‘El Paso’
and avoid this latest battle of the Bulldogs, we suggest an investment in the
Ruston breed.
Hawaii over UTAH ST by 10
If only they could all be this easy. Hawaii is not exactly the fi nely tuned
instrument it was under June Jones and at fi rst glance, the Warriors laying a
TD on the road looks to be a stretch. But when we stop and consider UH laid
40.5 points at home against the Aggies last year, well… the ‘7’ doesn’t look
so bad. Wait, it gets better: pathetic 1-7 Utah State has lost three straight
to the Warriors, allowing 50 or more points in every game, and they’re a
sad 0-12 SU and 3-8-1 ATS as home dogs of fewer than 25 points. You know
what to do.
S CAROLINA over Tennessee by 3
Only once in the last ten years has Phil Fulmer’s Volunteers stayed in Knoxville
for the holidays. That was back in 2005 and ol’ Phil could be looking at an
instant replay if UT doesn’t take down the Gamecocks today. Tennessee has
certainly had their way in the series lately, covering fi ve straight at Columbia
and the overall visitor is an equally impressive 10-0-1 ATS. The Vols are also
a 83-9 SU in November (35-4 SU away) and have cashed 10 of 12 tries after a
double-digit defeat. Spurrier’s team has won four of its last fi ve outings but
we’re not in any hurry to lay points in a series that’s seen the visiting team
dominate – especially with the Vols’ great November slate. South Carolina’s
0-7 ATS skein as a favorite playing with revenge seals the deal. Ride on,
Rocky Top
USC over Washington by 45
What has happened to college football in the state of Washington? First,
the Trojans lay 42 points to the Cougars at Pullman and promptly empty
the stands with a 69-0 destruction that made those responsible for hiring
coach Paul Wulff run for cover. Now the Washington Huskies show up in LA
and the line opens at 43 points! That may not be enough to grab the cash,
either, since USC owns a loss and must run up the score whenever possible
to maintain its lofty BCS ranking. Not that we need further incentive but
the Huskies – the only team in the land to yet outgain an opponent – are a
‘Play Against’ from last week’s ‘Behind the 8-Ball’ SMART BOX. The Trojans’
6-1 ATS record against .100 or less PAC 10 opponents is the clincher. Better
call out the animal rights activists because we might see some roasted Husky
today. THIS JUST IN: Washington head coach Ty Willingham has offi cially
been give the boot.
OKLAHOMA over Nebraska by 24
Ah, the good old days. Most of you whippersnappers reading this don’t
remember that the annual Oklahoma-Nebraska matchup used to be one
of the most eagerly awaited games of every season. Since the fi rst meeting
between OU’s Barry Switzer and NU’s Tom Osborne back in 1973, these
storied programs slugged it out 26 consecutive times in regular season play
and fi nished in a 13-13 SU deadlock. Along the way, they combined for
TWO ‘Game of the Century’ showdowns (Nebraska won in 1971, 35-31 and
Oklahoma rebounded to win in 1987, 17-7) and stocked the NFL with some
of its most outstanding players. However, following the realignment of the
Big 12, this once-intense rivalry has lost a lot of luster. Since 2000, they’ve
met just four times during the regular season and Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops
has gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS against the Cornhuskers. This year Stoops gets
his fi rst crack at new head Husker Bo Pelini and as the big number attests,
he’s a good bet to improve to 7-1 ATS at Norman off back-to-back DD SU
wins. Huskers are pointspread poison when they lose SU as a road dog off
a SU win, going 1-12-1 ATS, and can’t trade points with the more effi cient
Sooner offense. Lay it if you play it.
Oregon over CALIFORNIA by 6
Ducks will be in attack formation following last week’s 54-20 demolition of
Arizona State and own the fi repower to plow through the remainder of their
schedule. Mike Bellotti’s team has averaged an overpowering 30 PPG on the
road during his tenure with Oregon and they’ll be thinking of last season’s
fi rst loss, a 31-24 setback to the Bears as 7-point favorites at Eugene. The
feathered ones are also a SMART BOX ‘Play On’ team this week, a lean that
looks especially intelligent when we note California’s 3-9 SU and ATS mark as
conference chalk of 7 or less points against an avenging foe. Add a dreadful
4-18 ATS record for Cal from Game Six out in the regular season since 2005
and we’re feeling smarter by the minute. Bear… it’s what’s for dinner.
NAVY over Temple by 6
Both teams have gone 2-1 SU in their last three games and still have a
good shot at landing a bowl. The Owls have cashed in four of the past
fi ve meetings with the Middies and Temple will benefi t from the return of
starting QB Adam DiMichele (played in last week’s comeback win over Ohio
U). For a team that’s gone 8-23 SU under coach Al Golden, the linemaker
certainly thinks Temple has closed the gap between these two: Navy laid 21
points at Philly last year and 32 points here at Annapolis in 2006. But the
Midshipmen’s 0-3 SU and ATS mark as favorites in games before Notre Dame
versus a foe off a win keeps us at bay for now.
KANSAS over Kansas St by 14
Kansas is fi nding out the hard way that last year’s glass slipper came with an
expiration date. This time in 2007, the Jayhawks were a perfect 8-0 SU and
7-0 ATS; now they’re 5-3 SU and losers of two straight, the last a humiliating
home blowout to Texas Tech, 63-21. Both teams take the fi eld backed by
some excellent numbers. Kansas State has scratched out an 11-3 SU and ATS
series record and the Wildcats have cashed 11 of 12 games when playing
off a SU conference loss of 21 or more points. KU counters with a super
12-0 SU and 9-0 ATS log at home if .400 or greater taking on a .500 or less
opponent and they’re also 9-2 ATS playing the second of back-to-back home
games. With the spread currently at double digits, we’ll side with the crafty
Mangino as his team looks to make amends for last week’s rare home loss.
Texas over TEXAS TECH by 3
If Mack Brown’s Longhorns get through this year’s Big 12 gauntlet undefeated,
no one can question their appearance in the national championship game.
Saturday’s test at Lubbock will mark the fourth consecutive week the
Longhorns (8-0) will go up against one of the nation’s highest-ranked teams,
following contests against Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State. Texas
Tech is now #7 in the BCS rankings and head coach Mike Leach is 12-0 SU at
home when undefeated. The Red Raiders are also 8-2 ATS as single-digit Big
12 home dogs and 5-0 off consecutive road games. The Longhorns’ numbers
are not befi tting of their lofty ranking: 0-5 after a home game against
Oklahoma State, 1-5 ATS versus an .850 or greater conference opponent
(Game 6 or greater) and 2-9 as single-digit conference road chalk. Brown has
warned his No.1 ranked team about eating the ‘poison cheese’. Bottom line
is the bait has been set as these two teams are on a ‘Collision Course’ and, of
course, we’ll fade the favorite under all the pressure.
PURDUE over Michigan by 7
It’s fi tting that today’s game immediately follows Halloween because this
is a Michigan team masquerading in Wolverines’ uniforms. The Dazed-and-
Blue’s latest loss – 35-21 at home to Michigan State, Michigan’s fi rst loss to its
in-state rival since 2001 – came a day after new coach Rich Rodriguez fi nally
signed a contract that will pay him $2.5 million a year. The 2-6 Wolverines will
need to win out to become bowl eligible and extend their nation leading 33-
year bowl streak… but it’s not gonna happen. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers
have fallen short of adding to the legacy of outgoing head coach Joe Tiller,
derailing early en route to a 2-6 nightmare (“It wasn’t what I had in mind,â€
deadpanned Tiller). As with most Big 10 series involving Michigan, the
Wolves have ruled of late, winning 19 of the last 22 SU. However, UM has not
cashed a ticket in fi ve tries at Evanston when Purdue owns a losing record
and the Michigan defense is ripe for dissection, having given up 42 PPG in
their last three conference games (all losses). And just when it looks like Joe
Tiller might be carried out of Ross-Ade Stadium in a casket, PLAYBOOK chips
in by making him the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. Time
for Purdue to take things back up to a boil.
BOSTON COLLEGE over Clemson by 4
Thanks to the events of recent weeks, this has become one tough game
to gauge. There’s turmoil aplenty at Clemson where interim coach Dabo
Swinney faces the near-impossible task of leading the Tigers to bowl
eligibility. Since two of Clemson’s wins came over 1-AA teams, The Citadel
and South Carolina State, the 3-4 Tigers must win ALL their fi nal fi ve games
to make it to the postseason. Good luck! Even with a stable coaching regime
in Tiger Town, BC has always given Clemmie fi ts, covering fi ve straight in
the series. The Eagles have also compiled a 9-3 ATS mark at Chestnut Hill
playing a conference opponent with revenge. Clemson does own a 6-1
ATS mark as a dog playing with ACC revenge and maybe with a timely bye
week, Swinney and company can cook up a few southern surprises for the
beantown Yankees. You make the call.
San Jose St over IDAHO by 17
Talk about spoiling the moment. Idaho’s players got so excited by their
7-0 lead over New Mexico State last week that they staged a team photo
beneath the scoreboard, an idea that looked to have merit when the Aggies
stormed back to take a 14-7 lead. But lo and behold, the Spud boys put
up 13 unanswered points to actually win the whole game, thus rendering
the earlier photo op meaningless. Now the Vandals look to win consecutive
games for the fi rst time since 2006 – but it ain’t gonna happen. Rarely do
teams off a SU double-digit home dog win perform at that same level the
following week and, like Michigan State, Idaho is playing its10th straight
game without the benefi t of a week of rest. The Spartans have won and
covered all three meetings since coach Dick Tomey landed in San Jose and
the visitors also bring along a dynamite 10-1 ATS record as road chalk. Just
follow the instructions on the fi reworks package: light fuse and get away.
Byu over COLORADO ST by 11
Now that BYU’s perfect season is down the drain, the Cougars might just go
through the motions until their season ender with Utah for the MWC cheese.
However, that may be enough to get the job done against a CSU defense
that gave up 392 yards to offensively-challenged San Diego State in a comefrom-
behind 38-34 win over the Aztecs. But let’s not be too hasty to bury the
Rams. Colorado State has been more than scrappy as a double-digit home
dog of late, getting the bone in 11 of 15 tries. And despite its powerhouse
persona, BYU owns a fl imsy 2-5 ATS record this season, including 0-3 as road
chalk. Currently 4-4 and desperate to become bowl eligible for 1st year head
coach Steve Fairchild, the Rams don’t have enough jam to pull the upset
here but they could pick the pockets of a disinterested Cougars team looking
towards late November.
STANFORD over Washington St by 28
Following a 10-3 debut in 2003, WSU coach Bill Doba sealed his fate by failing
to post a winning season in his next four years at the helm, going 20-26
SU. Folks, with the debacle currently underway in Pullman, those look like
championship numbers right now to beleaguered Cougar fans. For a true
indication of just how bad things are, let’s turn to the true measuring stick
for badness, Syracuse coach Greg Robinson. After G-Rob’s fi rst 8 games with
the Orange, he had engineered a 1-7 train wreck while being outscored by
14.1 PPG in the seven losses. Now get a load of this: Wazzu coach Paul Wulff
owns an identical 1-7 SU mark at this juncture of the season but his team has
been outscored by an average of 58-6 in fi ve PAC 10 games this year (allowed
63 or more points in 4 of 5 conference games)! Things are just as bad on the
other side of the ball: throw out the 48 points the Wulff pack scored in their
lone win over Portland State and WSU’s offense is grinding out an awful 9
PPG. Now that we’ve set you up for a play on Stanford, we must tell you that
the Cardinal is just 2-8 ATS as favorites with rest, 6-15 ATS as double-digit
chalk… you get the idea. The bottom line is we can’t lay lumber like this with
a mediocre team like Stanford, especially when Harbaugh’s boys have backto-
back revengers against Oregon and USC on the horizon. Pass.
Boise St over NEW MEXICO ST by 16
With the Broncos now up to No. 11 in the BCS polls and one of only eight
undefeated teams still standing, Boise State coach Chris Petersen will be
doing his Al Davis ‘just win, baby’ impression today, knowing that a blowout
of a scrub team like New Mexico State will do little to advance his squad in
the rankings. With the Aggies still coming to grips with last week’s shameful
loss to Idaho, most bettors will look at the 3-TD line and fi gure the Broncs
can reach that margin in the fi rst quarter. Better think again: New Mexico
State is a solid 4-1-1 ATS as a DD home dog of late, 4-1 ATS at home playing
with conference revenge and DDHD’s off a SU DD road favorite loss are 4-0
ATS versus a foe off back-to-back wins. Will Boise State continue to play their
game or will they play ‘not to lose’? The pressure mounts…
Kentucky over MISSISSIPPI ST by 3
The Bulldogs nabbed just their third win of the season last week against Middle
Tennessee State while Kentucky was putting on a ‘how NOT to play defense’
clinic is Saturday’s brutal 63-5 annihilation at The Swamp. Today’s matchup
pits two inept offenses (Kentucky gains just 300 YPG versus lined opposition
compared to MSU’s 279 YPG) against two decent defenses (Wildcats allowing
300 YPG against lined foes compared to 279 YPG for the Bulldogs). Thus, we
have all the makings of an SEC ‘Snoozer of the Week’ in Starkville. If forced
to choose, we’ll go with Kentucky: the bluegrass Cats were upset by MSU last
year in Lexington, falling 31-14 as 14-point chalk, and UK also owns a 4-1 ATS
series edge on this fi eld. Big Blue silences the cowbells today.
Florida St over GA TECH by 1
Kudos to the linesmaker on putting up a ‘tough number’ on this key ACC
contest. At fi rst glance we were set to pounce on the Seminoles as a SMART
BOX dog, especially considering they were 24-point favorites the last time
these two teams got together. A lot has changed since then (2003) but the
one constant has been the winning records of both schools the past ten
seasons. The newest wrinkle has been the addition of head coach Paul
Johnson to the Yellow Jacket staff. Considering Johnson’s 22-10-2 ATS dog
log, it would be diffi cult dismissing the notion of taking any points being
offered up in this contest. His Georgia Tech squad has failed only one time
both SU and ATS this season, meaning the transition to his option offense
hasn’t missed a beat. Florida State’s improvement has come mainly on the
defensive side of the ball where its 247 DYPG is 115 yards better than last
year’s unit. With Penn State idle, Bobby Bowden can move one game closer
to Joe Pa’s career win mark (currently trails 381-379). It’s like we said, when
you can make cases for both teams and have a diffi cult time pulling the
trigger for either you have to give the linesmaker a pat on the back.
LSU over Tulane by 31
Think the loss of defensive coordinator Bo Pelini has had an impact on
this year’s Bengals? You’d better believe it. After winning a National
Championship with a nasty defense last season, LSU’s stop unit this season
– sans Pelini – is allowing 8 PPG and 38 DYPG more than it did in ’07. The
results speak for themselves as the Tigers are just a middle-rung SEC team
this year. We would normally look to fade the Bengals in the middle of a
conference sandwich but last week’s loss, and last week’s Smart Box, say
otherwise. Besides, defending National Champs off a SU and ATS loss are
31-16-1, including 19-5 if favored by 14 or more points. Despite the Green
Wave’s staunch stats and LSU’s declining numbers, we would only consider
backing the champs as they attempt to get back up off the mat for the
second time in three weeks here today.
Tcu over UNLV by 14
The Frogs leaped to the forefront with a convincing win over previously
unbeaten BYU two weeks ago, only to follow that effort up with a 44-point
whipping of Wyoming last week. As a result they are ranked No. 13 in the
current BCS poll and are anxious to move up with a win at Utah next week.
Therein lies the problem. Not only is TCU likely looking ahead to next week’s
battle for Mountain West Conference supremacy they will also be playing
their 10th straight game without rest this season. While we’d normally hop
all over their opponent in a situation like this, the fact of the matter is UNLV’s
defense (441 DYPG) is more than twice that of TCU’s (219 DYPG), making
this a tough pill to swallow. Sometimes medicine is the best preventative
to warding off an infection. That being said, we’ll pop a tablet and pass on
this matchup.
SOUTHERN MISS over Uab by 7
Two disappointing also-rans looking to turn their season around will go
head-to-head in Hattiesburg Saturday evening with the loser all but dead
in the water. When the Golden Eagles hired Larry Fedora to replace iconic
head coach Jeff Bower they envisioned a better turn of foot. Instead they’ve
developed a bad case of the gout, riding an 0-5 SU and ATS skid into this
contest. To make matters worse, they are now touchdown favorites in a
non-desirable homecoming role. We’d love nothing more than to bring
the visitor in with some sort of noteworthy credentials but we can’t. That’s
because the Blazers are 1-4 ATS the last fi ve tries in this series and 1-10 SU
and 2-9 ATS on the conference road against an opponent off a loss. With
bad numbers abounding for both teams, let’s make like the 2008 MLB season
and say we’re outta here.
UTEP over Rice by 3
After being torched for 77 points and 791 yards against Tulsa last outing, the
Miners needed a week of rest like a mattress needs a pillow. It was easily the
most points ever surrendered by a Mike Price team. Refreshed and anxious
to make amends, the Miners will take the fi eld with the comfort in knowing
Price is 12-6 ATS in his career as a home dog against an opponent off a win,
including 3-0 with UTEP. The other attraction in this game is the revenge
motive that comes about from El Paso’s 56-48 loss at Rice as an 8-point
favorite last season. It was part of a six-game season ending losing skid for
the Miners, a point of contention you can rest assured in knowing Price has
conveyed to this year’s troops. With the Owls still sleepy-with-victory from
last week’s 25-point upset revenge win at Tulane, look for the favorite in this
series to fall to 1-7 ATS in this Tempur-Pedic lie-down.
ALABAMA over Arkansas St by 17
In a world of sandwiches, this is a two-hander. And with it Crimson coach
Nick Saban will have his hands full trying to keep his team’s focus on the Red
Wolves and NOT the defending National Champion LSU Tigers due up next
week. After a string of fi ve straight SEC tilts, including a win at Tennessee
last Saturday, Alabama will need everything in its power to keep its center
of attention on this Homecoming affair. With four wins this season, up and
coming ASU needs two more to become bowl-eligible and will try hard to
impress bowl scouts here today. Given the Elephant’s 3-18 ATS mark in its last
twenty-one tries as home chalk, Arkansas State looks mighty meaty.
LA LAFAYETTE over Florida Int’l by 10
Thanks to the nation’s No. 1 ranked rushing offense (312 RYPG), the Ragin’
Cajuns are breathing down the necks of Troy for the top spot in the Sun
Belt Conference standings. La La’s net team stats, +58 YPG this season, are
dramatically better than FIU’s -109 YPG net team stats. By our calculations,
that amounts to 167 net YPG in favor of the host. No surprise to see the
Panthers drop to 0-5 SU and ATS in this series.
Troy over LA MONROE by 14
After losing offensive coordinator Tony Franklin to Auburn in the off-season,
the Trojans were expected to take a step back in 2008. That moonwalk never
happened as Troy is averaging the same 34 PPG this season as last and is 5-2
after seven games, identical to last year’s squad. This marks the road fi nale
for the Trojans who return home to close out the campaign with a seasonending
three game homestand. This also marks the LHG of the season
for Monroe who is 0-4 ATS in home fi nales when facing a .400 or greater
opponent. So the question begs: will Troy improve on its 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS
mark as a road favorite here tonight? You betcha!
Sunday, November 2nd
C FLORIDA over E Carolina by 3
George O’Leary is making a living, albeit not a very good one, working on
Sundays these days. After last Sunday’s 2nd half collapse at Tulsa, his charges
return home to host East Carolina in another C-USA Sunday night spotlight
game. O’Leary has been at his best at home in conference games (28-15-3
ATS) in his career, especially when he’s not favored (10-3-1 ATS). He’s also
12-5 ATS as a conference home puppy with revenge (lost 52-38 as 3.5-point
road favs at ECU last year). With the Pirates virtually sword-less as road chalk,
1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS – including 0-3 this season – it looks like another ‘Sunday
Morning Coming Down’ for another Sunday traveler tonight.
- 11/2/2008, 1:00 PM 