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   Pro Football Trend Report

   OAKLAND (2 - 4) at BALTIMORE (3 - 3) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   OAKLAND is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.

   BALTIMORE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons

   BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons

   0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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   SAN DIEGO (3 - 4) vs. NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SAN DIEGO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   KANSAS CITY (1 - 5) at NY JETS (3 - 3) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons

   NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   BUFFALO (5 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 4) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   BUFFALO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

   BUFFALO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

   MIAMI is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   BUFFALO is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

   BUFFALO is 4-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   TAMPA BAY (5 - 2) at DALLAS (4 - 3) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

   DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   ATLANTA (4 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 3) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   PHILADELPHIA is 121-86 ATS (+26.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

   PHILADELPHIA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

   ATLANTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

   PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   ST LOUIS (2 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 2) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   ST LOUIS is 94-124 ATS (-42.4 Units) in all games since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 94-124 ATS (-42.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

   ST LOUIS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

   NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   ARIZONA (4 - 2) at CAROLINA (5 - 2) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   ARIZONA is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

   CAROLINA is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

   CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   WASHINGTON (5 - 2) at DETROIT (0 - 6) - 10/26/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

   WASHINGTON is 44-69 ATS (-31.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

   DETROIT is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   DETROIT is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons

   WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   CLEVELAND (2 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 3) - 10/26/2008, 4:05 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   CLEVELAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NY GIANTS (5 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 1) - 10/26/2008, 4:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   PITTSBURGH is 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in October games since 1992.

   PITTSBURGH is 45-24 ATS (+18.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

   NY GIANTS are 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   SEATTLE (1 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 5) - 10/26/2008, 4:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SEATTLE is 18-44 ATS (-30.4 Units) in October games since 1992.

   SEATTLE is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

   SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons

   SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons

   4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   CINCINNATI (0 - 7) at HOUSTON (2 - 4) - 10/26/2008, 4:05 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   CINCINNATI is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 3) at TENNESSEE (6 - 0) - 10/27/2008, 8:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.

   TENNESSEE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

   TENNESSEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   TENNESSEE is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons

   TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons

   4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 21 2008 3:40pm
2. 0 likes

   CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

   PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES

   CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 23 - 27, 2008 No. 9

   CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS

   * - Denotes Home Team

   RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

   11 *FLORIDA over Kentucky

   Late Score Forecast:

   *FLORIDA 48 - Kentucky 14

   Long-time SEC scouts report Florida’s clever o.c. Dan Mullen has added a few wrinkles during the bye week for

   poised, speedy but strong frosh RBs Demps & Rainey, who combined for 195 YR (9.3 ypc!) in convincing 51-21

   drubbing of LSU. And now that Heisman Trophy winner Tebow (leads SEC in pass efficiency; 10 TD, just 1 int.) is

   performing more “instinctively,” according the coaches, that spells bad news for a highly-ranked Kentucky defense

   that has yet to face an attack that has Gators blend of speed, balance and creativity. Plus, with gifted Southern Cal

   transfer RB Moody expected back from an ankle injury, smallish Wildcat defense succumbs in “The Swamp,” where

   Urban Meyer’s crew has covered 8 of last 10. Expect fast, sure-tackling UF defense (13 ppg, 3.2 ypc) to smother

   a containable, starless UK attack (only 17 ppg vs. SEC foes) that was mostly flummoxed by green Arkansas defense

   until unpolished QB Hartline hit a couple TD passes in final few minutes of near-miraculous 21-20 comeback win vs.

   Hogs. Not here. Refreshed, poll-conscious UF captures 22nd straight in series in convincing fashion.

   10 ILLINOIS over *Wisconsin

   Late Score Forecast:

   ILLINOIS 33 - *Wisconsin 20

   Illinois has come together in Big Ten play, covering 3 of 4 games behind spectacular production of QB Juice Williams.

   Williams has thrown for an average of 348 yds. in the last 3 games with 7 TD passes and has run for 192 yards and

   3 more scores. He holds a major edge over any of Wisconsin’s choices at QB, who’ve combined to complete only

   32 of 68 passes with 0 TDs and 5 ints. in last 2 games. Illinois physical WR Rejus Benn has 543 receiving yards in

   the last 4 games. Badgers have dropped four straight, and HC Bielema likely to go to a more basic, smashmouth

   attack this week. The problem with that is that the Illini have yielded just 2.9 ypc in their last 3 games, and that

   Badgers top rusher P.J. Hill suffered an ankle injury in last week’s loss at Iowa and didn’t return to the game.

   10 *LSU over Georgia

   Late Score Forecast:

   *LSU 27 - Georgia 14

   Talented LSU bounced back from Florida setback with a good effort at South Carolina, but expect even more out of

   Les Miles’ crew this week against Georgia. ‘Dawgs are 0-4 against the number in SEC play this season, and QB

   Matthew Stafford has thrown just as many interceptions (5) as TD passes in Georgia’s last 3 games. Stafford has

   been under more pressure than HC Mark Richt would like due to a young offensive line, and LSU has two of the top

   three sack men in the SEC in DEs Tyson Jackson and Rahim Alem. Tiger RS frosh QB Jarrett Lee coming along well,

   ranking 4th in the conference in pass efficiency, and he had his best SEC game so far in front of the friendly crowd

   in Baton Rouge, where LSU has won 22 of its last 23 games.

   10 VIRGINIA TECH over *Florida St.

   Late Score Forecast:

   VIRGINIA TECH 24 - *Florida St. 19

   Although a narrow loser last week at BC, trip to Tallahassee won’t spook Virginia Tech bunch that has already won

   at North Carolina and Nebraska and has long since established itself as a pointspread force on the road (17-4 vs. line

   last 21 as visitor) and as a dog (10-3 last 13 in role). Fundamentals suggest matchup vs. FSU not too bad for Hokies,

   especially since Bud Foster’s aggressive defense can effectively blitz and disguise coverages much as Wake

   Forest did when frustrating the Noles and erratic QB Ponder last month. And with Ponder (only 53% completions)

   still a work in progress, FSU unlikely to reverse its underachieving ways as Doak Campbell chalk (0-1 TY, now 5-14

   last 19 in role). As long as soph QB Taylor doesn’t self-destruct, VT will be in position for “Beamer Ball” (“D” scored

   2 TDs at BC) to once again make the difference.

   10 N.Y. GIANTS over *Pittsburgh

   Late Score Forecast:

   N.Y. GIANTS 28 - *Pittsburgh 20

   (Sunday, October 26)

   Pittsburgh off to a fine 5-1 start, winning its last three games without Willie Parker. Making it four in a row vs. the

   Giants—if Parker is either out or still not 100%—figures to be a much tougher task. The 2008 Steeler OL has had

   more than its share of problems, losing stalwart G Alan Faneca to the Jets in the offseason and then starting G

   Kendall Simmons to injury in the fourth game. Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson was able to dial up nine sacks

   vs. Pittsburgh in the third week of the season, and Johnson was the mentor of N.Y. def. coord. Steve Spagnuolo

   before the latter took over the Giants’ rushers on their way to a Super Bowl victory over Tom Brady & the Patriots

   LY. With Ben Roethlisberger trying to overcome a sore shoulder, you know N.Y. will be bringing the heat. Giants

   deeper at RB and 8-2 their last 10 as an underdog.

   TOTALS: UNDER (45½) in the Atlanta-Philadelphia game—Falcs like to use RB Michael Turner (597 YR) to help keep opponents under control, keeping rookie QB Matt Ryan out of shootouts while he learns on the job...OVER (43½) in the Arizona-Carolina game—Cards’ turnovers, combined with their aerial game, have helped them go “over” 11 of last 15 on the road.

   HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTH CAROLINA STATE (+10½) at Maryland—Terrapins (3-12 last 15 when favored) can be caught when carrying the points; RS frosh QB Russell Wilson sparking the NCS offense while defense now healthier...ALABAMA (-7) at Tennessee—Crimson Tide way too sound overall, much more experienced at QB for struggling Vols to match on scoreboard...PENN STATE (-1½) at Ohio State—Nittany Lions (0-7 last seven trips to OSU) have been playing better than Buckeyes in the pits TY; sr. QB Daryll Clark gives PSU better balance, more experience on offense...NEVADA (-3½) at Hawaii—After years of being out-gunned by the Red Gun, Nevada’s Kaepernick is by far the best QB in this game, and bruising

   5-10, 225 soph Vai Taua the best RB...BALTIMORE (-7) over Oakland—Mistake-prone Raiders making cross-country trip to face surprising Ravens, who feast on opponents’ blunders.

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 21 2008 7:46pm
3. 0 likes

   THE GOLD SHEET

   VOLUME 52 OCTOBER 23-27, 2008 NO. 9

   NFL ANALYSIS

   Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the

   following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes

   attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader

   is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series.

   P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number

   of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they

   met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star (H).

   Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game,

   when listed in score line). “O”—Offense. “D”—Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or

   Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—

   Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions.

   ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—

   Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years.

   TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best

   rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

   All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please

   note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog

   as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread

   on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.

   KEY RELEASES---

   MIAMI by 10 over Buffalo

   WASHINGTON by 18 over Detroit

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

   OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Giants-Pittsburgh game

   SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26

   BALTIMORE 21 - Oakland 10—It appears that Baltimore rookie QB Joe

   Flacco is further ahead in his development than second-year Oakland QB

   JaMarcus Russell. Considering Russell’s protracted holdout in 2007 and TY’s

   early coaching change, that’s quite understandable. Ravens suffered a blow

   when aggressive G Marshall Yanda, the new anchor of their OL following the

   retirement of Jonathan Ogden after LY, suffered a season-ending injury. But in

   a duel of the Ryan brothers as defensive coordinators, we’ll trust Ray Lewis &

   Co. to get into the head of the talented—but young—Mr. Russell.

   (06-BALTIMORE -12' 28-6...SR: Baltimore 4-1)

   New Orleans 23 - San Diego 17—If the Wembley pitch is as waterlogged as

   it was for last year’s Giants-Dolphins mud bath (and rain is a good bet this time

   of year in London), then Reggie Bush’s likely absence due to a knee injury might

   not hurt N.O. as it might have on the fast track of the Superdome. Besides,

   Deuce McAllister might be a better infantry alternative on an “off” track anyway.

   Meanwhile, we’re beginning to wonder if it’s the occasional bursts of brilliance,

   or the ongoing inconsistencies, that represent the “real” San Diego, which

   misses Shawne Merriman’s pressure and intimidation on defense and is

   another misstep from falling to 3-5. (at London, England)

   (04-SAN DIEGO -6' 43-17...SR: San Diego 7-2)

   NY JETS 30 - Kansas City 13—Even with the pointspread lofty, K.C. has too

   many problems to make the Chiefs a worthy side. QB carousel. Tony

   Gonzalez’ attempt to get out. High-maintenance Larry Johnson in the

   doghouse. Youth in the OL. Effort concerns on defense (Titans 332 YR last

   week). Jets are 2-1 vs. the spread at home TY and capable of a much better

   offensive effort than last week’s 13 points in OT. Thomas Jones had 159 YR

   week ago behind N.Y.’s improved OL. In Favre we trust.

   (07-NYJ 13-K. City 10 (OT)...N.20-14 N.45/199 K.19/53 K.20/43/0/166 N.14/26/0/138 N.0 K.0)

   (07-NY JETS -5 13-10 (OT)...SR: Kansas City 17-16-1)

   ***MIAMI 23 - Buffalo 13—Perhaps Baltimore’s defense has provided the

   road map to deal with Ronnie Brown and Miami’s “Wildcat” formations, blitzing

   repeatedly and limiting the Dolphins to just 4 yards on 5 Wildcat plays last week.

   Buffalo, however, neither stonewalls the run nor pressures the passer as well as

   the Ravens, so Chad Pennington (75% the past 4 weeks) ought to be able to so

   some business. No complaints about Trent Edwards, but Bills not trustworthy

   on the road, especially with their OL experiencing power shortages (Fowler out

   last week) and with Marshawn Lynch yet to crack the century mark.

   (07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)

   (07-BUF. 38-Miami 17...B.20-18 B.40/224 M.21/65 M.23/44/2/220 B.11/23/0/165 B.1 M.3)

   (07-Buffalo -2' 13-10, BUFFALO -7 38-17...SR: Miami 50-37-1)

   DALLAS 20 - Tampa Bay 16—The absence of Tony Romo, RB Felix Jones,

   CB Adam Jones, WR Sam Hurd and P Mat McBriar proved to be far more than

   Dallas could absorb last week, even vs. marginal St. Louis. Moreover,

   considering the way the Cowboy OL and defense played, the coaching staff can

   also be faulted for failing to fire up the remaining core of key Dallas players.

   Romo’s status remains uncertain at this writing, but the Cowboys’ 2-10 spread

   mark their last 12 overall is not. At our deadline, we’re uncomfortable laying

   more than four in Dallas’ return home after two defeats.

   (06-DALLAS -11 38-10...SR: Dallas 9-3)

   PHILADELPHIA 20 - Atlanta 17—Normally reluctant to recommend a rookie

   QB against Jim Johnson’s aggressive Philly defense that made Ben

   Roethlisberger look like chopped liver at the Linc in September. But Atlanta’s

   Matt Ryan is mature far beyond his years, and the presence of Michael Turner

   (597 YR) is providing the necessary balance for the Falcon attack. And with

   new HC Mike Smith “slowing down” the games for Ryan, it’s doubtful the Eagles

   can capitalize on the sort of mistakes they did vs. Mike Martz’ 49er offense in

   Philly’s last outing. A bit reluctant to lay significant points with Eagles until Brian

   Westbrook (ribs; check status) able to play with abandon.

   (06-PHILADELPHIA -8' 24-17...SR: Philadelphia 14-11-1)

   NEW ENGLAND 20 - St. Louis 17—Rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI in the

   2001 season, when Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes vs. Mike Martz’ offense

   and the clutch plays of the young Tom Brady began the Patriots’ dynasty. Lots

   has happened since then, most of it good for the Pats and bad for the

   Rams...until Brady’s knee injury. St. Louis has put together back-to-back hardfought

   victories, with Steven Jackson rushing for 239 yards in the two and

   speedy rookie WR Donnie Avery contributing 9 recs. for 138 yards. Rams have

   a long way to go, but Pats were 0-7 vs. the spread their last 7 at Foxborough

   prior to their Monday nighter vs. Denver.

   (04-New England P 40-22...SR: EVEN 5-5)

   CAROLINA 30 - Arizona 16—Now that order has been re-established in

   Charlotte after last week’s 30-7 romp past the Saints, will lay points with

   confident host. After all, Panthers a much different “animal” when Jonathan

   Stewart & DeAngelo Williams (66 & 68 YR, respectively, last week) establish

   Carolina’s power rush attack, allowing Jake Delhomme to execute play-action

   and locate old friends Steve Smith (6 for 122 vs. Saints) & Muhsin Muhammad

   downfield. Meanwhile, Arizona one of the five western-most teams that has

   struggled with cross-country travel (2-7 vs. spread in role TY; Cards have

   already lost at Skins & Jets).

   (07-Car. 25-ARIZ. 10...C.14-10 C.30/181 A.26/98 C.20/33/0/193 A.14/26/3/159 C.0 A.2)

   (07-Carolina +5 25-10...SR: Carolina 5-2)

   ***Washington 31 - DETROIT 13—Redskins once captured 18 straight

   meetings between these two from 1968-97. Detroit is 2-3 in the series since,

   but it’s hard to count on them—even as a sizeable home dog—now that they’re

   clearly thinking of the future (e.g., GM Matt Millen ousted, WR Roy Williams

   traded, QB Jon Kitna placed on IR). Redskin OL is being praised for its

   improvement in Jim Zorn’s West Coast base, and Shaun Alexander is now

   around to help relieve some of the work load on Clinton Portis (818 YR).

   Opposing QBs Jason Campbell (no ints. TY) & Dan Orlovsky both in their fourth

   seasons. But who is more likely to make costly mistakes? Lions—trying to

   overcome poor choices in the front office and on draft day—only 3-11 vs. the

   spread last 14 overall.

   (07-WASH. 34-Det. 3...W.23-11 W.35/118 D.20/68 W.23/29/0/248 D.16/29/2/76 W.1 D.0)

   (07-WASHINGTON -3' 34-3...SR: Washington 29-10)

   JACKSONVILLE 23 - Cleveland 20—Jags 0-3 vs. the spread at home, as

   TY’s early OL injuries a key factor in the team’s inconsistent 2008 offense.

   Jacksonville is hopeful that C Brad Meester, G Chris Naeole, and S Reggie

   Nelson will be returning to action for this game after its bye week. However,

   Cleveland (16-6 last 22 vs. the spread) also benefited health-wise from its recent

   bye week and seems ready to rejoin the AFC playoff chase if only Browns can

   get QB Derek Anderson (14 of 37 at Wash. last week) back on track.

   (05-Jacksonville -3 20-14...SR: Jacksonville 8-2)

   ***OVER THE TOTAL NY Giants 27 - PITTSBURGH 26—Winners of two

   of last three Super Bowls. Can the 2008 Steeler OL, with no big-play threat of

   Willie Parker (check status) behind it, keep the attacking N.Y. pass rushers off

   Ben Roethlisberger? Remember, Giants’ offensive coordinator Steve

   Spagnuolo is a pupil of the Eagles’ Jimmy Johnson, who battered Pittsburgh

   QBs for nine sacks a month ago in Philly. G-men warmed up with six sacks vs.

   S.F. last week and are surely deeper at RB, while Eli was able to throw just fine

   despite bruised chest. Steelers “over” 2-0 at home TY and “over” 43-14-1 last

   58 at Heinz Field!!!

   (04-Pittsburgh -10 33-30...SR: NY Giants 43-28-3)

   SAN FRANCISCO 23 - Seattle 17—S.F. offense suffering from problems

   with sacks (28) and turnovers (-8), while Mike Holmgren can’t seem to keep his

   beloved offense healthy in his final year in Seattle. Seahawks have garnered

   only 187, 177 & 176 total yards, respectively, in their last three games. Seattle

   blew a 17-6 lead in the first meeting TY, losing at home in OT despite outrushing

   the 49ers 169-93, but turning loose J.T. O’Sullivan for several key plays

   in the second half. Niners only 1-2-1 when favored the last 2+Ys, but they have

   a few more weapons going for them than crippled Hawks.

   (08-S. Fr. 33-SEA. 30 (OT)...Se.22-20 Se.34/169 Sf.23/93 Sf.20/32/0/272 Se.18/36/2/182 Sf.1 Se.1)

   (07-Sea. 23-S. FR. 3...Se.17-9 Sf.19/109 Se.37/93 Se.23/32/1/278 Sf.12/34/2/75 Se.0 Sf.1)

   (07-SEA. 24-S. Fr. 0...Se.27-6 Se.36/106 Sf.16/79 Se.27/40/1/274 Sf.12/28/0/94 Se.1 Sf.2)

   (08-S. Fran. +6' 33-30 (OT); 07-Sea. -2 23-3, SEA. -9' 24-0...SR: Seattle 10-9)

   WRITE-IN GAME

   HOUSTON 34 - Cincinnati 17 —Houston did everything but blow out the Lions last week, with

   only a Matt Schaub fumble in the red zone keeping the game from being a first

   half rout. Detroit then used a couple of 54-yard FGs and a 96-yard TD pass to

   come in the back door. With Schaub completing 26 of 31 vs. the Lions, can’t

   count on Ryan Fitzpatrick (0-3 vs. the spread as a starter vs. Browns, Jets,

   Steelers) to keep pace. (05-CIN. +9' 16 - Hou. 10...SR: Cincy 3-0)

   MONDAY, OCTOBER 27

   *Indianapolis 24 - TENNESSEE 23—Indy is clearly not the team of recent

   years. Peyton Manning has only 8 TDP vs. 7 ints. The OL has been banged up,

   Joseph Addai is expected to miss another game, and Marvin Harrison doesn’t

   seem to be his old self. The DL is undersized, and 2007 defensive player of the

   year Bob Sanders is out. In LY’s 16-10 Titan victory in Game 16, Tennessee

   needed to win, while the Colts did not, with Manning completing 14 of 16 before

   taking a seat. But it’s now do-or-die for one of the league’s proudest teams,

   which is 8-4 vs. the spread the last 5+Ys as a road dog. Titans 6-0 SU & vs the

   spread in 2008, but their schedule has hardly been imposing. Let’s see how

   they cope with Indy’s desperation shot. CABLE TV—ESPN

   (07-Indy 22-TENN. 20...I.23-19 T.34/141 I.22/81 I.28/42/1/300 T.17/27/0/172 I.0 T.2)

   (07-Tenn. 16-INDY 10...T.25-13 T.39/98 I.10/46 T.24/31/0/258 I.25/40/0/148 T.2 I.1)

   (07-Indianapolis -7 22-20, Tennessee -4' 16-10...SR: Indianapolis 15-12)

   COLLEGE ANALYSIS

   KEY RELEASES---

   MINNESOTA by 12 over Purdue

   VANDERBILT by 20 over Duke

   GEORGIA TECH by 28 over Virginia

   TULSA by 32 over Ucf (Sunday, Oct. 26)

   THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23

   *Auburn 20 - WEST VIRGINIA 19—Star sr. QB Pat White should be back in

   action for West Virginia. Still, TY’s Mountaineer offense was already looking

   very mediocre (especially in comparison with prolific strike forces of last few

   seasons) before White sat out 17-6 home win over woeful Syracuse on Oct. 11.

   Extra week of prep no panacea for wayward Auburn attack. But time enough for

   some tweaking by veteran HC Tuberville after jettisoning o.c. Tony Franklin,

   and speedy Tiger defense (only 13 ppg) matches up well against WV’s spread option. TV—

   ESPN (First Meeting)

   *AIR FORCE 26 - New Mexico 24—We’re sure New Mexico enjoyed a rare

   chance to imitate Tom Osborne’s old Nebraska teams when running the ball

   down San Diego State’s throat last week. Dominating a capable Air Force

   bunch is an entirely different matter, but Lobos also on ascent because OL

   jelling and QB situation no longer dire with RS frosh Gruner getting comfy at

   controls. Rocky Long’s unorthodox 3-3-5 “D” might unnerve Falcs’ exciting but

   green frosh QB Jefferson.

   (07-N. MEX. 34-A. Force 31...18-18 A.49/212 N.48/156 N.16/28/1/169 A.11/18/0/110 N.1 A.5)

   (07-UNM -6 34-31 06-AFA -13' 24-7 05-Afa +12' 42-24...SR: Air Force 14-10)

   FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24

   *Boise State 25 - SAN JOSE STATE 23—Boise’s recent trips to San Jose

   have been harrowing to say the least (narrow escapes in ‘04 & ‘06 almost

   scuttled unbeaten Bronco reg.-season marks). Don’t expect anything different

   this time, not with Spartan “D” shutting off passing lanes with lockdown CBs

   Owens & Francies, likely forcing Boise RS frosh QB K. Moore to “matriculate”

   downfield in more conservative manner. Note Dick Tomey’s bunch on 9-game

   home cover streak! CABLE TV—ESPN2

   (07-BOISE ST. 42-Sjsu 7...B.23-13 B.31/144 S.32/98 B.32/41/1/290 S.16/30/0/100 B.1 S.0)

   (07-BSU -25' 42-7 06-Bsu -13' 23-20 05-BSU -30' 38-21...SR: Boise State 8-0)

   SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25

   ARMY 24 - Louisiana Tech 19—La Tech hasn’t been traveling well since the

   days George W. Bush’s approval ratings were near 50% (Bulldogs 0-3 vs.

   number on road TY, 13-35-2 vs. line away since early ‘01!), so don’t mind giving

   ascending Army a look. “Back to the future” theme playing well at West Point,

   as Black Knights have covered 4 straight since Stan Brock switched to option

   on full-time basis, and robust “D” (ranks respectable 40th) excellent by academy

   standards. (First Meeting)

   MARYLAND 28 - North Carolina State 24—Although “buy” signs on the

   Terrapins were abundant in last week’s impressive beatdown of ranked Wake,

   desultory Maryland has been an exceedingly poor investment as a favorite

   recently, covering just 3 of last 15 laying points. With resourceful RS frosh QB

   R. Wilson making plays for N.C. State offense and Wolfpack defense getting

   healthier, compelled to back dog.

   (07-Mary. 37-N. CAR. ST. 0...M.22-14 M.49/249 N.16/10 N.26/45/1/240 M.20/25/0/217 M.0 N.0)

   (07-Mary. +2 37-0 06-MARY. -2 26-20 05-NCS -3 20-14...SR: EVEN 30-30-4)

   MIAMI-FLORIDA 26 - Wake Forest 20—Tough to predict which platoon will

   prevail in matchup of young, banged-up Hurricane defense vs. regressing

   Wake offense that has mustered just 1 TD in first 3 ACC games. Can

   precocious Miami true frosh QB Jacory Harris (4 TDP, 1 TDR, 2 ints. during last

   week’s win at Duke) avoid major mistakes against Deacons’ ball-hawking

   veteran stop unit (20 takeaways)? TV-ESPNU

   (05-Miami-Florida -16' 47-17...SR: Miami-Florida 5-3)

   Northwestern 31 - INDIANA 17—Seven straight spread losses and a 10-

   ranked pass defense are enough to keep Indiana on our “go-against” list.

   Hoosier QB Lewis (ankle injury) has just 1 TDP and only 39 YR in the last 3

   games, so no end in sight for Indiana slide. Northwestern has already won

   tougher road games than this at Duke and Iowa, so QB Bacher and a solid corps

   of receivers should hurt Hoosier 2ndary.

   (07-N’WESTERN 31-Ind. 28...N.26-17 N.46/165 I.27/94 N.27/34/3/291 I.18/28/1/204 N.0 I.1)

   (07-NORTHWESTERN +2' 31-28...SR: Northwestern 42-33-1)

   ***Minnesota 31 - PURDUE 19—Rested Minnesota has covered 5

   straight and owns one of most improved defenses in the nation. Gopher d.c.

   Ted Roof has a bend-but-don’t break unit that’s generating lots of turnovers

   (Gophers rank 1st in TO margin; Purdue 101st). Not sure reeling Purdue

   capable of moving ball consistently, considering Boiler QB Painter has been a

   disappointment in ’08, with 9 ints. & just 4 TD passes in last 6 games, and has

   apparently lost the confidence of HC Tiller. Minny’s Weber-to-Decker combo

   too much Purdue 2ndary that bee hurt by lesser QBs.

   (07-Purd. 45-MINN. 31...P.28-25 M.37/232 P.33/166 P.33/48/1/338 M.23/44/1/237 P.0 M.3)

   (07-Purd. -14 45-31 06-PURD. +2' 27-21 05-MINN. -3' 42-35 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 31-30-3)

   NORTH CAROLINA 23 - Boston College 16—Carolina trying not to let gutwrenching

   loss at Virginia (Heels never trailed until Cavs punched in

   game-winning overtime TD) linger, while resilient BC has put together 4 straight

   victories. Tough to ignore Eagle QB Crane’s carelessness with rock (3 ints., 2

   returned for TDs, during win over Va. Tech), however, especially considering

   that UNC leads nation with 14 “picks.” Heel soph RB Draughn (338 YR last 3

   games) is top ground threat on field.

   (05-NORTH CAROLINA +4' 16-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)

   Cincinnati 20 - CONNECTICUT 17—Acknowledge that well-coached UConn

   has been profitable play as host, covering 15 of last 20 at Hartford. Still,

   reluctant to buck money-making Cincy mentor Brian Kelly, who’s been a 68% play

   vs. spread over last few seasons. Bearcats’ vastly superior receivers & greater

   speed on defense held sway in LY’s meeting. Same story this time around.

   (07-CINCY 27-Conn. 3...Ci.18-11 Ci.39/144 Co.22/22 Ci.21/33/0/276 Co.18/37/1/182 Ci.0 Co.0)

   (07-CINCY -6' 27-3 06-Cincy -4' 26-23 05-CINCY +7' 28-17...SR: Cincinnati 4-0)

   Illinois 28 - WISCONSIN 21—Wisconsin is broken, and we’re not convinced

   HC Bielema can fix things in one week. Offensive failures continued against

   Iowa last week, as Badgers’ move to Dustin Sherer at QB didn’t help (17 of 34

   passing, 174 YP, 2 ints. & 0 TDPs). Ankle injury to top rusher P.J. Hill

   compounds Bielema’s problems, and Wisconsin is just 7-8 SU in last 15

   games. Conversely, Illinois offense exploding as QB Juice Williams (1043 YP,

   8 TDP, 3 rush TDs & only 1 int. in the last 3 games) and WR Rejus Benn (136

   ypg receiving in last 4) clicking, while highly-touted frosh RB Jason Ford had

   172 YR against Indiana.

   (07-ILL. 31-Wis. 26...W.28-18 I.44/289 W.31/127 W.27/49/2/392 I.12/19/0/121 I.0 W.0)

   (07-ILL. -2' 31-26 06-WIS. -21 30-24 05-Wis. -20' 41-24...SR: Illinois 36-33-7)

   PITTSBURGH 24 - Rutgers 10—In first 6 games vs. FBS foes, Rutgers’

   reeling Ray Rice-less offense mustered just 9 TDs, while Scarlet Knight stop

   unit failed to snag a single “takeaway.” Improving Panthers ride star soph RB

   McCoy (447 YR & 5 TDs in last 3 games) & stingy defense to convincing victory.

   (07-RUT. 20-Pitt 16...P.14-13 R.40/111 P.41/110 P.14/28/1/158 R.5/17/2/108 R.2 P.1)

   (07-RUTGERS -12 20-16 06-Rutgers +6' 20-10 05-RUTGERS P 37-29...SR: Pittsburgh 19-6)

   *Texas A&M 27 - IOWA STATE 24—ISU (five straight losses) has the

   advantage of defense and the home field, but the Cyclone offense is slowing to

   a walk (10 & 7 points last two games). The A&M defense (34.4 ppg), however,

   continues to betray the development the Aggie offense has been showing under

   former Packer coach Mike Sherman. ISU only 3-7 last 10 when favored.

   (05-Iowa State +11 42-14...SR: Texas A&M 7-1)

   FLORIDA 42 - Kentucky 12—Though UK finally showed offensive

   competence in 21-20 comeback Lexington victory vs. Arkansas, prefer

   refreshed UF, which has covered 8 of past 10 in “The Swamp.” Gator o.c.

   Mullen has found the right formula by using both speedy true frosh Demps & RS

   frosh Rainey (both prep WRs) in backfield (combined 195 YR vs. LSU!). With

   UF’s previously over-thinking QB Tebow heeding advice of Mullen, who said

   “Quit acting like a professor and play like a guy who won the Hesiman Trophy,”

   Wildcats highly-ranked defense fails toughest test to date.

   (07-Fla. 45-KY. 37...K.29-21 F.37/171 K.35/97 K.35/50/0/415 F.18/26/0/256 F.0 K.0)

   (07-Florida -7 45-37 06-FLORIDA -26' 26-7 05-Florida -23 49-28...SR: Florida 41-17)

   *Mississippi 28 - ARKANSAS 20—UA might suffer a “hangover effect” after

   leading for 58 mins. of painful 21-20 setback at Kentucky, so side with

   rejuvenated Ole Miss, primed to snap 4-game series losing skein (outscored

   82-11 L2YS). Rebels dynamic QB Snead more likely to make game-changing

   plays than Hog counterpart C. Dick (ugly 11 of 29 for 94 yds. vs. UK), especially

   with hot RB M. Smith cooled off by Ole Miss’ stingy front 7 (just 3.2 ypc; limited

   Bama to a meager 107 YR).

   (07-Ark. 44-MISS. 8...A.23-20 A.54/293 M.34/112 M.14/34/4/182 A.12/18/1/144 A.0 M.0)

   (07-Ark. -5' 44-8 06-ARK. -20' 38-3 05-Ark. +1 28-17...SR: Arkansas 30-23-1)

   BALL STATE 45 - Eastern Michigan 14—Teams headed in opposite

   directions, as 7-0 Ball State seeking MAC title, while EMU looking like the team

   that’s dropped 15 of last 21 spread decisions (How long can Jeff Genyk avoid

   the axe?). Defensive contrasts dramatic, as Cardinals rank 16th in scoring “D”

   at 15 ppg, while Eagles are 101st. Main question is whether Nate Davis and highpowered

   Ball State attack “get the number” before being replaced by reserves.

   (07-Ball St. 38-E. MICH. 16...B.24-11 B.42/153 E.28/107 B.19/39/0/306 E.16/26/1/155 B.0 E.0)

   (07-Bsu -4 38-16 06-BSU -5 38-20 05-Bsu +6 26-25...SR: Ball State 27-20-2)

   BYU 47 - Unlv 17—BYU’s BCS hopes abruptly ended in stinging 32-7 loss at

   TCU, but expect angry Cougs to vent frustration vs. defensively-outmanned

   UNLV (yielding 32 ppg), which is 2-11 vs. spread last 13 as MWC visitor.

   BYU’s prolific QB Hall (69%, 20 TDs, 6 ints.) easily dissects inviting Rebel

   2ndary (11 TDs, only 3 ints.), totally untested by Air Force option last week.

   Resilient Cougs (6-2 vs. spread last 8 following SU loss) 10-4 vs. spread in

   Provo since ‘06.

   (07-Byu 24-UNLV 14...B.26-14 B.45/227 U.25/96 B.21/33/3/214 U.16/26/1/121 B.1 U.0)

   (07-Byu -11 24-14 06-BYU -28' 52-7 05-Byu -12 55-14...SR: BYU 12-3)

   ***VANDERBILT 34 - Duke 14—Since Vandy might have big trouble

   reaching that elusive 6th win with a brutal Nov. slate, now’s the time to endorse

   hungry ‘Dores stepping waaayy down in class. Vandy’s mobile QB M. Adams

   & RB Hawkins (399 YR, 4.2 ypc) burn a Duke defense feeling “bad vibes” after

   allowing 35 2nd-H pts. in 49-31 loss vs. Miami. ‘Dores TO-creating stop unit (17

   takeaways; 13 ints.!) helps set up favorable field position vs. Blue Devils, on

   road for only 2nd time TY. (06-Vanderbilt -8 45-28...SR: Vanderbilt 7-3)

   Rice 37 - TULANE 34—Sure, high-stepping Tulane jr. RB André Anderson

   (185 ypg rushing in last 4) will keep potent Rice attack idling on sidelines for

   extended stretches. But quick-trigger Owl sr. QB Clement (6 more TDP last

   week, 72 in last 2+ seasons!) doesn’t usually need much time to strike pay dirt.

   (07-Tulane 45-RICE 31...19-19 T.54/267 R.15/23 R.35/55/0/353 T.11/22/1/188 T.0 R.0)

   (07-Tulane +2' 45-31 06-TULANE +2' 38-24 05-RICE -1 42-34...SR: Rice 15-14-1)

   Fresno State 38 - UTAH STATE 24—Despite the best efforts of exciting soph

   QB Borel, Utah State remains so deficient in so many other areas (such as

   109th-ranked “D”) that it’s risky recommending Utags at almost any price. But

   disappointing Fresno not providing a lot of value either (no covers last 5). And

   with BCS dreams long since dashed, not sure we trust Bulldogs carrying heavy

   lumber on road.

   (07-FRES. ST. 38-Utah St. 27...F.23-20 F.47/255 U.38/155 U.18/26/0/214 F.13/18/1/131 F.1 U.1)

   (07-FSU -20' 38-27 06-USU +26' 13-12 05-FSU -33 53-21...SR: Fresno State 12-10-1)

   NAVY 34 - Smu 30—Contrast in styles of these two as stark as the differences

   between Sean Hannity and Alan Colmes. But Navy option not operating at peak

   efficiency if QB Kaipo’s hamstring injury continues to linger. Meanwhile,

   SMU quietly becoming more competitive (no spread losses last 4), and back

   door wide open for Bo Levi Mitchell and June Jones’ evolving Dallas version

   of the Red Gun.

   (DNP...SR: SMU 7-5)

   Alabama 24 - TENNESSEE 13—While embroiled HC Fulmer’s growing

   legion of critics temporarily silenced following 34-3 romp vs. offensively-iffy

   MSU, they return following Vols anticipated 4th loss TY vs. an SEC contender.

   Fast-starting Tide (outscoring foes 95-3 in 1st Q!) likely to force UT (outscored

   37-0 in 1st Q) to be in early catch-up mode. Doubt immature QB Stephens (just

   23 of 50 L2 weeks) can close deficit vs. stout Tide defense (15 ppg, 2.3 ypc)

   hell-bent to play 4 intense Qs after HC Saban has bemoaned “complacent

   efforts” following intermission in recent victories.

   (07-ALA. 41-Tenn. 17...A.21-19 A.38/147 T.19/103 A.32/46/0/363 T.23/38/2/259 A.0 T.0)

   (07-ALA. +1 41-17 06-TENN. -11 16-13 05-ALA. -3' 6-3...SR: Alabama 45-38-7)

   *ARIZONA STATE 29 - Oregon 24—Native son John McCain might wish he

   could have taken a week off as did ASU, which hopes last week’s “bye” allowed

   Dennis Erickson and o.c. Rich Olson a chance to tune up laboring “O” in Sun

   Devil garage. Banged-up Oregon also welcomed its own “bye” and should have

   QB Roper available once more. But if off week indeed allowed Rudy Carpenter’s

   sore ankle to heal, Sun Devils might start to resemble their form from ‘07 and the

   first few weeks of this season when attack was popping.

   (07-ORE. 35-Ariz. St. 23...A.25-22 O.41/200 A.41/110 A.22/37/1/379 O.15/26/0/200 O.1 A.1)

   (07-ORE. -8 35-23 06-Ore. +1' 48-13 05-Ore. +10 31-17...SR: Arizona State 16-12)

   CALIFORNIA 30 - Ucla 20—UCLA not scoring many style points these days.

   But this isn’t Dancing With The Stars, and sage o.c. Norm Chow has juco QB

   Craft making just enough plays to keep Bruins within earshot most weeks.

   Meanwhile, Jeff Tedford’s QB juggling act showing signs of backfiring (both

   Longshore & Riley erratic), and top Cal weapon RB Best could be compromised

   by nagging arm injury. Heavy technicals in UCLA’s favor (Bruins 14-2 last 16 as

   dog, and 37-18 overall vs. number since early ‘04; Bears 4-15-1 last 20 laying

   DDs). REG. TV—ABC

   (07-UCLA 30-Cal. 21...U.22-19 U.45/183 C.30/67 C.22/34/3/232 U.19/28/0/190 U.2 C.1)

   (07-UCLA +2' 30-21 06-CAL. -17' 38-24 05-UCLA -1 47-40...SR: UCLA 49-28-1)

   MIAMI-OHIO 26 - Kent State 24—Can’t lay many points with Miami-O. side

   that’s dropped 8 straight as a favorite. Return to action of Kent RB Eugene

   Jarvis (50 YR & 2 recs. in limited duty vs. Ohio) and a week off should be enough

   to pry a good performance out of Golden Flashes. Miami offense doesn’t scare

   anybody, as RedHawk QB switch from vet Raudabaugh to RS frosh Belton

   netted a win at Bowling Green, but Belton completed only 11 of 23 passes for

   129 yards. Kent won’t be surprised by Miami true frosh Jay Taylor (127 YR in

   first extended duty vs. BG).

   (07-Miami 20-KENT ST. 13...K.25-16 K.45/203 M.36/101 M.16/22/0/310 K.19/33/2/260 M.2 K.1)

   (07-Miami +9 20-13 06-Ksu +12' 16-14 05-Miami -6' 27-10...SR: Miami-Ohio 28-20-2)

   ***GEORGIA TECH 35 - Virginia 7—Three straight home wins have put

   surprising Virginia & beleaguered HC Groh back in thick of ACC title chase. But

   Cavs now hitting the road, where they’re just 9-25 vs. spread in last 34 as true

   visitor. Facing Tech’s terrific DL a tough assignment for still-learning UVa soph

   QB Verica, and no better bankroll buddy than new Jacket & former Navy mentor

   Paul Johnson (5-0 against line TY). TV—ESPNU

   (07-VA. 28-Ga. Tech 23...V.20-17 G.31/121 V.42/121 V.20/35/1/233 G.17/40/1/230 V.2 G.1)

   (07-VA. +3' 28-23 06-TECH -17 24-7 05-VA. -3' 27-17...SR: Virginia 15-14-1)

   TEXAS 38 - Oklahoma State 31—Rare deep-in-the-season matchup of

   teams undefeated both SU and vs. the spread. The public unloaded on

   Missouri at UT last week, but Mack Brown deserves credit for keeping his team

   from “eating the cheese” in the trap of a possible letdown after the Horns’ upset

   of Oklahoma. OSU has a recent history of wild shootouts vs. the Longhorns,

   and QB Zac Robinson (70%, 14 TDs , 4 ints.) is playing nearly as well as UT’s

   McCoy. REG. TV—ABC

   (07-Texas 38-OK. ST. 35...O.29-27 T.42/307 O.45/164 O.30/42/0/430 T.20/27/3/282 T.0 O.1)

   (07-Texas -2' 38-35 06-TEXAS -18 36-10 05-Texas -37' 47-28...SR: Texas 20-2)

   LSU 26 - Georgia 20—Now that o.c. Crowton has expanded playbook for

   strong-armed, fast-learning QB Lee, support loaded, deep LSU, which is 41-4

   SU in Tiger Stadium since 2002 (last two losses in OT!). UGA QB Stafford finds

   no comfort zone behind green OL (all frosh-soph) hard-pressed to slow down an

   unleashed Tiger pass rush (season-best 6 sacks at S. Carolina). LSU’s blazing 5-

   5 return man Holliday (24-yd. avg. on punts) can score any time, while undervalued

   RB K. Scott (6.4 ypc) not outdueled by Dawgs more celebrated RB Moreno.

   (05-GEORGIA +1' 34-14 at Atlanta...SR: LSU 14-11-1)

   Oklahoma 47 - KANSAS STATE 23—Despite all its firepower (47 ppg), OU

   has failed to cover its last two games, going 1-1 SU, with oddsmakers writing

   “pointspread checks” the Sooner defense couldn’t cash with its allowances of

   45 points vs. Texas and 31 vs. Kansas. But it’s hard to go against the Sooners

   with their solid OL and big-play offense when juco-laden K-State has been

   scrambling for a running game and defensive stability to help support powerful

   QB Josh Freeman (12 TDs, 2 ints.). (05-OKL. -7 43-21...SR: Okla. 67-17-4)

   Michigan State 24 - MICHIGAN 23—Both of these teams a bit shellshocked

   after suffering blowout-losses last week. Not quite ready to lay points at Ann

   Arbor with MSU side that hasn’t won there since 1990. Spartans have

   challenges, as QB Hoyer left the Ohio St. game with a hand injury and has a

   possible concussion, while Michigan run defense yields just 3.3 ypc.

   Wolverines played one good half of football last week, which is more than can

   be said for the Spartans. REG. TV—ABC

   (07-Mich. 28-MICH. ST. 24...U.18-17 S.43/191 U.30/100 U.18/33/1/211 S.19/35/1/161 U.0 S.0)

   (07-Mich. -3' 28-24 06-MICH. -15' 31-13 05-Mich. +5 34-31 (OT)...SR: Michigan 67-28-5)

   FLORIDA STATE 24 - Virginia Tech 23—“Technicals” clearly favor taking

   points with Tech, as Hokies still 17-4 vs. spread last 21 as visitor (even after

   dropping decision at BC last week), while Seminoles have been decidedly subpar

   as favorite over last several seasons. Fundamentally, however, FSU has the

   best RB on field in sr. Antone Smith (335 YR & 8 TDs in last 3 games) and the QB

   most likely to do damage through air in blossoming soph Ponder. REG. TV—ABC

   (07-VA. TECH 40-Fla. St. 21...V.17-13 V.54/188 F.28/116 V.11/19/1/207 F.13/33/2/151 V.0 F.1)

   (07-TECH -6' 40-21 05-Fsu +14 27-22 at Jacksonville...SR: Florida State 21-11-1)

   NORTHERN ILLINOIS 37 - Bowling Green 23—With Huskies’ veteran

   defense (only 11 ppg last 3) clamping down and their offense getting a spark

   from return of resourceful RS frosh QB Harnish (3 TDP last week), the only thing

   preventing a strong recommendation on NIU is recent profitability of Bowling

   Green (13-5 vs. spread last 18 as visitor) on road.

   (DNP...SR: Bowling Green 10-5)

   New Mexico State 42 - IDAHO 20—After NMS’ record-breaking QB Holbrook

   tossed two “picks” for TDs in 31-14 home loss vs. SJS, look for the future 6-5

   NFL draftee to bounce back big-time vs. “invisible” Idaho defense (50 ppg) that

   lost emotional leader (if they had one) SS Keo to season-ending injury. Woeful

   Vandals gain no inspiration in Kibbie Dome, where they’ve failed to cover 9 straight.

   (07-N. MEX. ST. 45-Idaho 31...N.26-25 I.43/234 N.24/88 N.36/49/0/404 I.19/35/2/212 N.0 I.1)

   (07-NMS -9 45-31 06-IDAHO -1 28-20 05-Idaho +5' 38-37 (OT)...SR: Idaho 10-4)

   *TCU 41 - Wyoming 3—No truth to the rumor that Wyo is so desperate to find

   a QB that HC Glenn inquired if Joe The Plumber had any eligibility remaining.

   Not that Joe would fare much worse than regressing Karsten Sween or the other

   QBs that Cowboys have used to no avail in recent weeks. Hot TCU pretty

   reliable laying heavy lumber at Fort Worth (7-1 last 8 laying DDs) now that

   passing QB Dalton back in lineup. A better question is what to do if presented

   with a 3½ “Wyo only total” on this game?

   (07-WYO. 24-Tcu 21...22-22 W.51/232 T.43/134 T.22/39/1/210 W.12/26/1/134 W.1 T.2)

   (07-WYOMING -3 24-21 06-TCU -6' 26-3 05-Tcu +7 28-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)

   Central Michigan 34 - TOLEDO 21—CMU impressed by beating Western

   Michigan last week without MAC MVP QB LeFevour at the controls. Chip

   backup QB Brian Brunner completed 20 of 28 passes for 346 yards in relief, and

   frosh Brian Schroeder made the most of his opportunity, rushing for 106 yards

   and 2 TDs. Toledo defense ranks 104th and has yielded 40 ppg in losing 3 home

   games. Rocket QB Opelt and WR S. Williams can’t trade scores with

   Chippewas for long.

   (07-C. MICH. 52-Tol. 31...C.28-21 C.42/218 T.36/101 T.26/42/0/381 C.22/32/0/244 C.0 T.1)

   (07-CMU -3 52-31 06-Cmu +2' 42-20 05-CMU +7' 21-17...SR: Toledo 17-16-3)

   South Florida 28 - LOUISVILLE 27—Substantial edge at QB for visiting USF

   & its irrepressible jr. triggerman Grothe, as strong-armed Louisville sr.

   counterpart Cantwell’s lack of mobility a major concern against hard-charging

   Bull front 7 led by sackmeister DE Selvie. No surprise, however, if elusive RS

   frosh RB V. Anderson (663 YR) and improved defense & special teams (4 TDs

   last 2 games) keep Cards close.

   (07-S. FLA. 55-Lvl. 17...S.26-23 S.49/230 L.26/130 L.24/49/4/273 S.19/27/1/251 S.0 L.3)

   (07-USF -9 55-17 06-LVL. -17 31-8 05-USF +20 45-14...SR: South Florida 3-2)

   NEBRASKA 34 - Baylor 20—After apologizing to the state of Nebraska for his

   team’s performance in its 52-17 home loss vs. Missouri, Bo Pelini’s team hung

   tough in 37-31 OT loss at Texas Tech and then routed ISU 35-7 in Ames. Baylor

   QB Robert Griffin a marvel, but lack of a supporting ground game making things

   difficult for “Rambo” on the road.

   (05-Nebraska -2 23-14...SR: Nebraska 9-1)

   KANSAS 34 - Texas Tech 28—TT (7-0), off to its best start in 32 years, is

   beginning a stretch of four straight games vs. upper-echelon Big XII foes. With

   Brian Batch (491 YR) leading the way, the usually pass-happy Red Raiders

   have topped 100 YR in every game TY, out-rushing 6 of their 7 foes! The 2008

   Jayhawks (sacked 5 times last week) miss the power runs of Brandon

   McAnderson, but their 10-1 spread mark their last 11 at home is impressive.

   (05-TEXAS TECH -18 30-17...SR: Texas Tech 9-1)

   *MISSOURI 41 - Colorado 13—After being serenaded for 20 minutes by

   chants of “o-ver-RA-ted” at Austin last week, expect HC Gary Pinkel, QB Chase

   Daniel and the Tigers to dig deep back at home. MU has rushed for only 64 &

   30 yards, respectively, in its consecutive losses vs. Oklahoma State & Texas.

   But CU just 4-12-1 vs. the spread its last 17 away and is juggling QBs in search

   of offense.

   (07-Mo. 55-COLO. 10...M.25-7 M.42/169 C.30/84 M.27/45/1/429 C.14/28/1/112 M.0 C.2)

   (07-Mo. -3' 55-10 06-MO. -15 28-13 05-COLO. -12 41-12...SR: Missouri 38-31-3)

   *Penn State 27 - OHIO STATE 20—Favor red-hot Penn State, as Nittany

   Lions have a QB edge with sr. Daryll Clark (18th in pass efficiency; 11 TDPs, 8

   rush TDs) over still-learning true frosh Terrelle Pryor. Argument can also be

   made that Paterno has better players in the pits. Penn State protects and

   rushes the passer better than the Buckeyes, and the Nittany Lions allow more

   than a half-yard less per carry than the OSU defense. Paterno 0-7 SU and vs.

   number last 7 visits to the “Big Horshoe,” but he’d dropped 9 straight to Michigan prior

   to last week’s game against the Wolverines. REG. TV—ABC

   (07-Osu 37-PSU 17...O.24-14 O.48/200 P.23/139 O.19/26/1/253 P.16/26/1/124 O.0 P.1)

   (07-Osu -3' 37-17 06-OSU -17 28-6 05-PSU +3' 17-10...SR: Ohio State 12-11)

   *Southern Miss 31 - MEMPHIS 23—True, visiting Eagles have dropped their

   last 4 games SU & vs. spread. But backing Memphis a very dicey proposition

   now that Tigers likely down to third-string QB Toney (see Special Ticker).

   (07-Mem. 29-USM 26...M.27-16 U.38/147 M.26/26 M.35/49/2/396 U.12/18/1/159 M.0 U.0)

   (07-Memp. +16' 29-26 06-Usm -7 42-21 05-Memp. +7 24-22...SR: Southern Miss 37-20-1)

   *Notre Dame 32 - WASHINGTON 16—Not completely sure that Ty

   Willingham will still be on the job to face his old team when this one kicks off

   (new U-Dub AD Steve Woodward under pressure to hit “eject” button before

   season concludes). But with Jake Locker sidelined, reliever Fouch erratic, and

   Huskies apt to wave the white flag at any time, we’d rather take our chances with

   Notre Dame, especially since Charlie Weis’ improved OL should provide Jimmy

   Clausen all day to throw. CABLE TV—ESPN

   (05-Notre Dame -13 36-17...SR: Notre Dame 6-0)

   *Colorado State 32 - SAN DIEGO STATE 15—SDSU’s prospects are so

   bleak that we doubt even CNBC’s Jim Cramer would be interested in “buying”

   Aztecs at current depressed price levels. CSU not a prototypical road favorite,

   but Rams have at least displayed some offensive competence with RB G.

   Johnson & QB Farris. Note SDSU continues en route to historic stat exacta (last

   nationally in both rush “O” and rush “D”!).

   (07-Sds 24-COL. ST. 20...S.19-16 S.44/148 C.39/139 S.14/27/0/230 C.14/27/1/188 S.1 C.1)

   (07-Sds +13' 24-20 06-SDS +1 17-6 05-Sds +7' 30-10...SR: San Diego State 15-12)

   *Southern Cal 30 - ARIZONA 22—Now that SC facing a functioning offense

   instead of the injury-plagued imitations it has seen in recent weeks, Trojans

   might actually have to work for a full 60 minutes. Remember, Mike Stoops’ UA

   teams have proven competitive lately (covering last 3) vs. Troy, and plenty of

   competence in o.c. Sonny Dykes’ Texas Tech-like spread that uncovered a new

   weapon last week in frosh RB Antolin (149 YR vs. Cal). Stoops’ scheming on “D”

   has held Trojans to far under normal production in last 2 meetings (SC only

   scored 20 on both occasions).

   (07-S. CAL 20-Ariz. 13...S.19-13 S.43/146 A.16/22 A.30/43/0/233 S.19/31/2/130 S.0 A.3)

   (07-USC -21 20-13 06-Usc -21 20-3 05-USC -37' 42-21...SR: Southern Cal 25-6)

   *Nevada 29 - HAWAII 22—With QB Kaepernick likely at full attention after

   disciplinary benching during 1st Q of last week’s game vs. Utah State, properlyfocused

   Nevada has enough weapons to outscore post June Jones-version of

   Hawaii Red Gun. New Warrior QB Funaki more likely to cause damage with his

   legs than his arm, which won’t catch Wolf Pack “D” by surprise after chasing

   Utags’ mobile Diondre Borel last week in Reno.

   (07-Hawaii 28-NEV. 26...H.21-19 N.48/216 H.21/51 H.35/49/0/379 N.9/20/1/134 H.1 N.2)

   (07-Hawaii -6 28-26 06-HAWAII -12 41-34 05-NEVADA -5 38-28...SR: EVEN 6-6)

   ADDED GAMES

   *MISSISSIPPI STATE 24 - Middle Tenn. St. 16—Scrappy MTS suffered 2nd-

   H meltdown (outscored 27-6 after intermission) in 42-23 loss at L’Ville, but still

   reluctant to lay DDs with offensively-shaky MSU (12 ppg), admittedly dropping

   in class in midst of murderous SEC slate. Blue Raiders clever QB Craddock &

   speedy WRs could hit enough plays to stay within DD impost of a Bulldog squad

   0-4 as Starkville chalk since ‘05. CABLE TV—ESPNU

   (DNP...SR: Miss. St. 2-0)

   *LA.-MONROE 27 - Florida Atlantic 22—Charlie Weatherbie didn’t make

   Monroe backers very happy by showing unusual compassion vs. outclassed

   North Texas last week (Warhawks shut down their “O” after racing to 35-6

   halftime lead). But we’ve seen more competence from QB Lancaster and the

   ULM attack than from counterparts at FAU, now forced to rely on infantry

   diversions (RB Pierre 192 YR at WKU) in light of QB Rusty Smith’s ‘08 struggles.

   (07-La.-Mon. 33-FAU 30 (OT)...F.25-21 L.47/207 F.33/128 F.35/55/2/317 L.23/36/1/201 L.1 F.0)

   (07-Ulm +6 33-30 (OT) 06-Fau +14 21-19 05-Ulm +7' 28-21...SR: La.-Monroe 3-1)

   *Troy 48 - NORTH TEXAS 16—Not that impressed by North Texas scoring

   final 20 spread-covering points at La.-Monroe last week, as moribund Mean Green

   (outscored 324-81 in first 3 Qs TY!) rarely positioned to sneak in “back door.”

   (07-TROY 45-N. Texas 7...T.21-13 T.35/137 N.35/26 T.28/43/4/356 N.23/41/1/179 T.3 N.1)

   (07-TROY -22' 45-7 06-TROY -10' 14-6 05-Troy +2 13-10...SR: Troy 4-1)

   SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26

   *** *TULSA 56 - Ucf 24—While the old-school handicapper in us might tend

   to favor defense over offense, the firepower edge enjoyed by Tulsa in this

   matchup is so stark that we’re compelled to lay the lumber. How can sputtering

   UCF (just 243 ypg—worst in country) possibly keep pace with juggernaut

   Golden Hurricane side that peppers the scoreboard with a nation-leading 57

   ppg? CABLE TV—ESPN

   (07-UCF 44-Tulsa 23...T.25-24 U.48/229 T.25/59 T.35/61/4/320 U.21/29/0/224 U.1 T.0)

   (07-UCF -3 44-23 05-Tulsa -2 44-27 at Orlando...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28

   *Buffalo vs. OHIO—Check our website at http://www.goldsheet.com [goldsheet.com]">www.goldsheet.com for details on

   this one!! CABLE TV—ESPNU

   (07-BUF. 31-Ohio 10...B.22-18 B.56/251 O.32/90 O.23/41/2/186 B.11/20/0/146 B.0 W.0)

   (07-BUFFALO +4 31-10 06-OHIO -17' 42-7 05-Ohio -4' 34-20...SR: Ohio 9-5)

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 21 2008 7:47pm
4. 0 likes

   KEVIN O’NEILL’S

   THE MAX

   The Maximum Profit Football Weekly

   • Volume 9 Issue 10 October 23-27, 2008 •

   SELECTIONS: October 23-27, 2008

   College Football

   Saturday, October 25th, 2008

   Army (-1½) over Louisiana Tech

   Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Having changed to a triple option offense in the offseason,

   Army understandably struggled, losing their first four

   games, but is now starting to get it. Against Temple, New

   Hampshire, and Akron, Army averaged 179 yards rushing

   on 3.3 yards per rush, but things really turned around in a

   close loss to Texas A&M. The Cadets went for 280 yards

   on the ground at 4.3 yards per carry in that one. And

   since then, Army has cranked on the ground, averaging

   317 yards on 6.0 yards per carry against Tulane, Eastern

   Michigan, and Buffalo. They beat Tulane and Eastern

   Michigan, and lost in OT Saturday to Buffalo. In that

   Buffalo game, Army went for 320 yards on 54 carries, just

   a shade under 6 yards per rush. And Buffalo’s head coach

   was uniquely qualified to coach his team against the Army

   offense, as Turner Gill was one of the premier triple-option

   quarterbacks in the history of college football at Nebraska.

   For Louisiana Tech, this is a “what are they doing here?”

   kind of game. It’s one thing to be here in September, but

   when you’ve already been to Honolulu and Boise so far this

   season, how enthusiastic are you going to be on the bluff

   overlooking the Hudson River in late October? In the midst

   of your WAC schedule, do have the will do to what’s

   necessary to win this game against such a unique offense?

   The Bulldogs haven’t seen an option team this year, nor

   did they see one last year. The triple option can be like

   learning to play defense all over again, and how much

   does Louisiana Tech really want to go to the wall to stop

   it? How will Louisiana Tech’s defensive line feel late in the

   game when fullback Colin Mooney at 5-10, 247 pounds,

   plows into the line for the 50th time? He sets up RB

   Wesley McMahand, who is only 5-6 but averages over 8

   yards per carry. Louisiana Tech has decent run defense

   stats, but the best running team they’ve played is Boise

   (ranked 66th), everyone else they’ve played is ranked 85th

   or higher.

   Without the speed and athleticism of many opponents,

   Army’s physical, intense defense, gives maximum effort on

   every play. Opponents have been quoted as saying that

   their intensity has been tough to match. Ross Jenkins is

   the new quarterback for Louisiana Tech, and his first start

   was Saturday night in a blowout win over Idaho, the worst

   team in 1-A football. This is his first road start, and Michie

   Stadium can be an intimidating environment, with the

   wind, the noise from the Cadets, and the intensity of the

   Army defense.

   Army’s off a disappointing defeat. They had a pretty good (for the

   level) Buffalo team beat in the fourth quarter, but a key turnover

   helped lead to a 14-point Buffalo comeback and the result was a

   27-24 loss to the Bulls in overtime. It can be tough to play a team

   off a close defeat, especially an overtime game they should have

   won, but these service academy kids have a lot of resiliency, and

   the Black Knights will bring their A-game each and every week.

   Lousiana Tech is happy with their blowout WAC win, has a big WAC

   home game against Fresno next Saturday, and will be asking

   themselves “what are we doing here?” when they realize that Army

   is the team that wants this game more. Army by 9.

   Cincinnati (pk) over @Connecticut

   Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Both of these teams most recently played Rutgers,

   and played tight, low scoring games against the

   Scarlet Knights. Before their bye week, Cincinnati

   beat RU at home 13-10 without their top two QB’s.

   Saturday, UConn went to Rutgers and lost 12-10

   with one of their top quarterbacks, but they may not

   have him Saturday. We’ll get to those details in a

   bit. First let’s look at the nature of the Huskies. It

   is always a little dangerous to go against

   Connecticut, as the Huskies results on Saturday,

   where they largely outplayed Rutgers but lost, are

   the reverse of what is usually the case. In their last

   15 games, Connecticut is 9-6, and in 5 of those 9

   wins, they were outgained. They’re well coached,

   opportunistic, and pretty good on special teams.

   But some of those characteristics appear to be

   disappearing. That’s what makes their loss to

   Rutgers Saturday painful. Their special teams were

   awful. They missed three FG’s, didn’t field a pair of

   punts, and trying to turn a kickoff return into a big

   play, got tackled on their own 1.

   When they aren’t doing all the little things perfectly, they’re

   really an average team. Kind of pedestrian on offense,

   with a good running game but a very poor passing attack.

   Starting QB Tyler Lorenzen is out with a broken foot. Zack

   Frazer’s status is unclear after suffering a possible

   concussion Saturday. The Huskies averaged 5.4 yards per

   pass attempt heading into the Rutgers game, only 15

   teams in all of Division 1-A were worse. But Frazer went

   for 11.8 yards per attempt against that horrid Rutgers

   secondary (allow over 9 yards per attempt on the season).

   Much of the passing production came in the fourth quarter

   while trailing. Frazer’s backup is a redshirt freshman.

   Connecticut can run the ball fairly well, but they’ve scored

   12 points or less against Temple, North Carolina, and now,

   Rutgers. Against North Carolina and Rutgers the sloppy

   Huskies combined for 17 penalties for 154 yards. That’s

   not something that would have happened last year. Coach

   Randy Edsall is taking some heat in Storrs for the penalties

   and defending himself against unimaginative play calling.

   Cincinnati’s quarterback position is the reverse of

   Connecticut’s as it has been devastated by injuries but is

   now getting healthier. Tony Pike will be back for this one.

   Pike is completing over 8.3 yards per pass attempt with 6

   TD’s and a single interception. Bearcats may have some

   matchup advantages, as they beat UConn 27-3 last year on

   yardage of 420-204. UConn has had a good defense in

   recent years, but permit 5.5 yards per play against teams

   that are less explosive than UC. Brian Kelly is an excellent

   coach and he has an extra week to prepare his game plan

   and look for weaknesses in his opponent. Bearcats are a

   little bit of a stealth team. They were about to get some

   national attention but then the QB’s got hurt and people

   saw the ugly close loss against Rutgers and probably forgot

   about them. Cincy is the better team and it shows here.

   Cincinnati by 7.

   Illinois (-1½) over @Wisconsin

   Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

   For now Bret Bielema's job is plenty safe.

   Despite losing both straight up and to the

   spread four straight Big 10 games including

   last Saturday's 38-16 loss to Iowa, Bielema has

   the approval of the only voice that really

   matters: Barry Alvarez. After a 48-7 loss to

   Penn State two weeks ago Alvarez made a very

   public defense of his coach. An AD's legacy is

   determined by the coaches he hires and

   Alvarez is going to give his guy every

   opportunity to turn this around. Things could

   get dicey though, if the Badgers don't go

   bowling. You need six wins to qualify.

   Wisconsin has three so far with five games left

   to play. The final game is a gimme against Cal-

   Poly SLO.

   Wisconsin's problems can be traced to their

   problems in the running game. Long a team

   that has relied on smash mouth football the

   Badgers are having problems pushing

   opponents around. After a sound spanking of

   Akron to open the season, the Badgers have

   outrushed their six opponents since by just 45

   yards. Wisconsin needs to dominate on the

   ground because QB Allen Evridge is completing

   less than 54% of his passes. And that is where

   the biggest edge for the visiting Illini is. Illinois

   is averaging just over 10 yards per pass

   attempt, and on just the air attack alone my

   stat model has Illinois favored by 15 points. If

   Wisconsin jumps out to the early lead Juice

   Williams has enough talent to bring Illinois

   back. But if Illinois races in front, it is most

   unlikely that Evridge has the goods to mount a

   comeback.

   Off their 55-13 win over Indiana I have a 291-

   193 ATS momentum system on Illinois. Best

   tech I have on this game is a negative 166-269

   ATS system that plays against Wisky thanks to

   their 0-4 mark inside the Big 10. This system is

   8-16 ATS in 2008, including losers last

   weekend on Colorado, Indiana, and the

   Badgers themselves.

   A lot of handicappers thought Bielema's 12-1 record

   in 2006 was a fraud. Maybe it was. Since then the

   Badgers have had problems against their better

   opponents. They have covered just four of their last

   fourteen against opponents with a winning record

   and the Illini are 4-3. Wisconsin's fade continues.

   Illinois by 10.

   Mississippi (-4) over @Arkansas

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   This is a big game down in Fayetteville. The Hogs

   can’t wait to payback Houston Nutt after leaving for

   Mississippi. And this game has been dubbed the

   “Nutt Bowl.” You’ll hear about it often this week

   from the talking heads. But how much of that will

   really have an effect on the outcome of this game?

   And how much of it is really just hog wash by the

   media looking at that angle to carry their stories all

   week? Plenty. Because when you look at the

   makeup of the current Arkansas team, you’ll see

   that they are loaded with a ton of freshman. And

   they never played for Nutt, so he’s had little (maybe

   recruiting?) to zero affiliation with them. Most of

   the talk isn’t coming from the players, but the

   reporters. And after what happened last week at

   Kentucky, the Arkansas players have a lot more to

   worry about than Houston Nutt.

   Arkansas blew a win at Kentucky. They held a 20-7

   fourth quarter lead, but lost 21-20 after allowing a

   touchdown pass with just over 2 minutes to go in

   the game. And that loss will be extremely difficult

   for them to get over. “This is probably the lowest of

   the lows that we’ve experienced as a team this

   year,” All-American center Jonathan Luigs said. “And

   then to give it away like that is a tough one to

   swallow. It’s probably going to test the character

   and integrity of this team, how we’re going to

   bounce back.” And they’ll have to bounce back

   without their best offensive player who has carried

   their production. Junior running back Michael Smith

   left the Kentucky game with a concussion, and his

   return here doesn’t look good according to head

   coach Bobby Petrino: “It’s scary because we don’t

   know how long he’ll be out with that. It’s a shame

   because he was playing his heart out, doing a great

   job running the ball, catching the ball.” In fact,

   after Smith left the game, the Arkansas offense had

   three drives that totaled 11 yards on 13 plays.

   Smith had 253 all-purpose yards by himself. If the

   SEC’s leading rusher is out, Arkansas will have no

   chance at matching points with Mississippi.

   Ole Miss lost another close one last week at Alabama. The

   24-20 loss looks good, but the Rebels trailed by 21 (24-3)

   at the half. We won with them on the late phones, and we

   got a fortunate and inspired second half performance. And

   that’s what is so good about Houston Nutt. His kids don’t

   quit on him, and he knows that. “Tell you what we do

   have, we've got some fighters and some guys that are

   really believing," Nutt said. "If they keep doing that, good

   things are going to happen." The Rebels offense should be

   able to score at will on the worst defense in the SEC.

   Arkansas has allowed opposing teams to score on 18 of 22

   possessions including 14 touchdowns inside the red zone.

   And even though the Rebels defense has been equally

   awful in that category, Arkansas may not get too many

   chances if Smith doesn’t suit up. While Arkansas is on the

   improve, they are just in a bad spot off the blown lead last

   week and the potential of their best offensive player being

   out. Mississippi by 10.

   Duke (+9½) over @Vanderbilt

   Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   David Cutlcliffe rescue of the Duke football program

   was big news a few weeks ago, but since then Duke

   has lost badly to Georgia Tech and Miami and the

   bloom is off the rose. But let’s take a look at both

   their losses. Georgia Tech simply creamed the Blue

   Devils, but when Paul Johnson’s option offense gets

   rolling, that can happen some time. People realize

   that, and that’s why there was significant support

   for Duke in the betting markets last week. That

   underdog money looked pretty good early in the

   third quarter when Duke led Miami 24-10, but the

   game got away from Duke in a barrage of dropped

   passes, missed assignments, and other mistakes,

   with Miami winning 49-31. Leading receiver Eron

   Riley dropped four balls, to the great consternation

   of David Cutcliffe. Coach Cutcliffe will have his

   teams full attention this week, as he was very

   displeased with the effort in the 4th quarter. “We

   stopped playing in the 4th quarter,” said the coach.

   But we’re willing to forgive the loss, and see it as

   something to bounce back from. Miami is a team of

   lighting-quick high school All Americans who also

   scored a lot of points against Florida State. They’re

   improving rapidly and Duke was competitive for

   most of the game. Miami had non-dominant edges

   in first downs (23-19) and total yards (420-331).

   The Blue Devlis didn’t just get rolled. They were in

   the game for a long time. Things are different at

   Duke than they used to be.

   Vandy is not a team that is poised to take advantage

   of Duke’s thin defense. The Commodores have

   done very little offensively since the first two weeks

   of the season. Their 131 passing yards against

   Georgia were only the second time all year that

   Vandy has cracked 100 yards passing. They were

   outgained for the fifth time in six games. In wins

   they have been outgained by 100 yards against

   South Carolina, by 63 against Rice, by 183 against

   Ole’ Miss. Against punchless Mississipppi State they

   were outgained 247-107. Though a win here gets

   them bowl eligible, this is still a flat spot on the

   schedule, the only game in a string of 8 that is

   against a non-conference foe. They are far less

   experienced than Duke, returning only 9 starters to

   Duke’s 16.

   Remember that since Duke waxed Virginia 31-3

   three weeks ago, UVA has won three games.

   Duke’s defense has shown some vulnerability in the

   past two games, but is Vandy the team to cash in on

   it? This Vanderbilt team does not fit the profile of a

   significant favorite, and Duke isn’t as bad as people

   think. Look for the Blue Devlis to hang in there.

   Vandy by only 3.

   @Missouri (-21½) over Colorado

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   If Missouri is as good as we think they are, then this

   is a good bounce back spot for them. The Tigers

   enter off back-to-back losses against Oklahoma St

   and Texas. Two weeks back, Mizzou was a 14½-

   point home favorite over Okie St and lost straight-up

   28-23. And last week they were just pounded from

   the get-go at Texas and wound up losing 56-31.

   But there should be no shame in losing either one of

   those games. The Oklahoma St loss looks worse

   because of the high spread, but that line was simply

   out of whack. Many thought Missouri would give

   Texas all they wanted last week as they were off

   that home loss and were catching Texas off their big

   Oklahoma win. And we saw a ton of support for

   them as the line crashed from 7½ to 4 at kickoff.

   Now how many bettors who backed Missouri last

   week will be quick to unload on them again this

   week? Not too many, especially with the Tigers

   laying three touchdowns.

   But we’ll certainly step in here. Missouri’s highoctane

   offense has been stalled by much bigger and

   faster defenses than what they’ll face with Colorado.

   Missouri’s gimmicky offense is not as effective when

   facing good defenses, but when it lines up against

   weak ones, it explodes. Over their first five games,

   Missouri scored at least 42 points in every game.

   They had just 17 going into the 4th quarter last week

   before they piled up the garbage points and yards

   when the game was out of reach. Last year, Chase

   Daniel led the Tigers to 55 points and 598 yards in

   their 45-point win at Colorado. And a repeat of that

   performance is certainly attainable again this year.

   Missouri’s schedule is weak the rest of the way, and

   big, lopsided wins should resume.

   Colorado was supposed to be much improved this

   year. It’s Dan Hawkins third year, and after going

   from 2-10 in 2006 to 6-7 and a bowl game in 2007,

   another positive step was expected. But that

   certainly has not been the case. Colorado got out of

   the gate fast opening the season at 3-0. But the

   wheels have come off lately as the Buffaloes are just

   1-3 over their last four games. The win came last

   week over a bad Kansas St team, but Colorado

   should be embarrassed by the 14-13 final. Kansas

   St’s defense is horrible, but they held Colorado to

   just 13 points on 353 yards. Over their previous

   four games, K-St allowed at least 30 points and 509

   yards to opposing offenses. Colorado has no chance

   of trading points with Missouri here. Under Dan

   Hawkins, Colorado is only 2-9-1 against the spread

   as a road underdog. That, combined with the fact

   that Missouri will be looking to atone for the last two

   weeks, equals blowout. Missouri by 28.

   @Hawaii (+3½) over Nevada

   Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

   This was supposed to be a major rebuilding year in

   Honululu under new HC Greg McMackin. The

   Warriors returned only 8 starters from last year’s

   Sugar Bowl squad. They have struggled at times,

   but the drop off has not been quite as severe as

   many of us expected. They played Florida very

   tough for a quarter and a half in Gainesville before

   understandably being blown out in the 2nd half.

   Since then they have played pretty well, including

   upsetting Fresno on the road as a 3 TD underdog,

   beating Louisiana Tech by double digits at home,

   and then losing but covering at Boise this past

   Friday. They trailed the Broncos by only a field goal

   at the half in a very physical game on the blue turf.

   We all know what a tough place Boise can be to

   play, and usually in this conference the top teams

   really thrash teams in big home revenge games or

   statement games. The Boise players commented all

   week how they had waited all season for that game

   (their only lost from last season), and although they

   won by 20, it was not the cakewalk many of us

   thought it would be.

   Although they still run a version of the run-andshoot,

   UH’s passing numbers are way down from

   their teams of the past decade under June Jones.

   However, their rushing offense has improved by

   nearly 40 yards per game. The defense has

   benefited from some extra time on the sidelines and

   has played well against a good slate of opposing

   offenses, allowing 5.3 yards per play and 370 yards

   per game. One thing you will always get from

   Hawaii is maximum effort, especially on this field

   where they are 17-2 SU the last 19 games, and 49-

   12 SU since 2001.

   Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick is a future NFL QB and

   gives the Wolf Pack a big edge at the position in this

   matchup. However, the Wolf Pack defense, ranked

   94th in the nation, leaves a lot to be desired and will

   struggle with Hawaii’s run-and-shoot. They allow

   8.3 yards per pass, and although that number has

   been inflated by a schedule that includes Texas Tech

   and Missouri, they have given up at least 225 yards

   passing to every team on their schedule. This is

   also a team that routinely struggles on the road

   when they aren’t clearly the superior squad. Since

   HC Chris Ault returned in 2004, they are only 7-16

   ATS in away games when not favored by double

   digits. As good is Kaepernick is, it must be noted

   that Hawaii’s defense (led by now HC McMackin)

   held him to his worst numbers ever last season as

   he had only 23 yards rushing and 134 yards passing.

   We’ll back the better defense and strong home field

   in this one. Hawaii by 3

   NFL

   Sunday, October 26th, 2008

   @Ravens (-7) over Raiders

   Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

   Who in the heck is Joe Flacco and how did he become the

   Ravens' starting QB? The 23-year old first round pick out of

   Delaware had a breakout game last week at Miami. The

   Ravens beat the Dolphins 27-13 and Flacco completed 17

   of 23 passes for a healthy 232 yards. The kid has shown

   slow but steady improvement after taking over thanks to a

   season-ending injury to Kyle Boller. Offensive coordinator

   Cam Cameron has done a solid job bringing Flacco around.

   Now that Cameron is back at the offensive coordinator

   position after a miserable job as the top dog in Miami he is

   displaying the same talent for QB development he showed

   in San Diego first with Drew Brees and then Philip Rivers.

   Flacco's counterpart in Oakland also comes off a fine

   game. JaMarcus Russell outdueled Brett Favre in overtime

   to lead the Raiders to a 16-13 upset over the Jets. But

   Flacco has proved to be the better QB even though Russell

   is in his second season. Russell is completing just 51.2% of

   his passes, while Flacco is hitting for 64.2%. Flacco has

   thrown more interceptions, but the disparity in completion

   percentage is enormous. Russell also has a better rushing

   attack to rely on yet is not able to consistently take

   advantage of the more favorable coverages it forces. Part

   of Russell's problem may be the crowd. All QBs will

   perform at a lower level on the road, but Russell's

   problems seem especially acute when traveling. In three

   road games so far he has completed 37.1, 47.4, and

   35.3% of his throws. That slate includes a game at

   Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, where the fans these

   days are as likely to boo the home team as the visitors.

   The Ravens stats edge is large in both phases of the game.

   When only the teams' rushing numbers are tallied my

   model makes Baltimore an 11-point favorite, and the

   passing game gives Baltimore a 16.5-point edge. That

   edge in the run game may seem odd as the Raiders do run

   the ball fairly well. But the Ravens' run D is stout, giving up

   just 2.9 yards per carry and my numbers show Baltimore

   has played the better schedule so far in large part because

   of the aforementioned game against the Chiefs.

   I don't have a great deal of technical backing for the

   Ravens here, but what I have is pretty good. Off their

   double digit win the Ravens apply to a 125-64 ATS

   momentum system that has performed at better than 60%

   ATS out of sample since I started using it several years

   ago.

   Given the difficulties they have faced Ravens' first year

   head coach John Harbaugh is doing a fine job. The injury

   list has 15 players on it, a rookie quarterback from Division

   1-AA has taken every snap and yet the team is 3-3 and

   occupies second place in the AFC North. Tom Cable has his

   first win as Oakland's head coach, but he has no more

   authority than Lane Kiffin or any other of the recent

   Raiders' coaches had. Oakland has won just 22 of its last

   87 games, and the coaches aren't the problem, Al Davis is.

   I'll take the better program with the better coaching. Lay

   the wood. Baltimore by 14

   Bills @Dolphins under 41

   Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   There’s a reason that gimmick offenses don’t

   work in the NFL. Superior athletes, who are

   prepared and understand their assignments,

   can stop gimmicks. A lot of “systems” and

   gimmicks can work in college football,

   especially when the opponent sees it only once

   a year or less. But unlike the limited practice

   time available in college, playing in the NFL

   playing is a full time job. In their three wins,

   the Dolphins used the Wildcat formation 25

   times for 252 yards and 6 TD’s. Obviously the

   Ravens burned the midnight oil when it came

   to preparation to stop the Wildcat (stay in your

   gaps, don’t freelance our of your assignment,

   etc.) and it worked out great for Baltimore.

   Gaining only 4 yards on 5 plays, after gaining

   over 10 yards per play previously, the Dolphins

   obviously realize that the bloom is off the

   Wildcat rose. Their offense isn’t terrific when

   not in the gimmick. In the three games prior

   to the Baltimore loss, they scored 11

   touchdowns, with 6 of those TD’s coming out

   of the Wildcat. With the league catching up to

   the direct running back snaps, Miami doesn’t

   figure to get a lot of production against a Bills

   defense that had another outstanding game

   Sunday against the Chargers high-powered

   offense. Buffalo has held 4 of their 6

   opponents below 17 points and are very

   capable.

   Under defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni, the

   Dolphins D has been sound, holding three

   opponents below 300 yards. But Miami didn’t play

   well Sunday, with head coach Tony Sparano pointing

   out that poor tackling was an issue. Miami may

   have been complacent against a Ravens offense that

   doesn’t scare a whole lot of people. That poor

   performance figures to spur them back to another

   quality performance, especially against a conference

   foe. The Bills have yet to sniff 300 yards of total

   offense in their three road games thus far, and are

   generating significantly more offense back in

   Orchard Park.

   Miami’s in a new system (their third in three years),

   so past history doesn’t mean as much as if the

   coaching staff was together, but still, a lot of the

   same players were on the field the last two years

   these two teams have combined for 23 and 22

   points. This one won’t be that low scoring, but

   neither will it see a barrage of explosion plays.

   Under is the call.

   @Patriots (- 7) over St Louis

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   The transition from Tom Brady to Matt Cassel has

   been much rougher than people thought. Nobody

   can match what Brady has done on the field, and to

   think Matt Cassel would pick-up where Brady left off

   was just wishful thinking. But Cassel was expected

   to step-up and be serviceable. He’s done exactly

   that, in spots though. The Jets game and the 49ers

   game are clear evidence of that. Cassel completed

   69% (38-55) of his passes for 424 yards while

   averaging 7.7 yards per pass in those two games.

   But the home game against Miami was bad, and the

   loss at San Diego was embarrassing. In those two

   games, Cassel completed only 59.4% (41-69) of his

   passes for 334 yards while averaging just 4.8 yards

   per pass. Let’s forgive him for the faux pas on the

   West coast as the Chargers had pointed towards

   that game for a while.

   After opening the season at 0-4, the Rams went into

   a much-needed bye. And they fired Scott Linehan.

   Jim Haslett took over, and as he promised during

   that off week, we’ve seen a much different Rams

   team. The first thing Haslett did was give the

   starting quarterback spot back to Marc Bulger who

   was a victim of Linehan’s desperate attempt to save

   his job. Out of the bye, the Rams went into D.C.

   and beat the Redskins 19-17 as a 12-point road

   underdog. But they caught the Skins in a flat spot

   off their back-to-back wins over Dallas and

   Philadelphia. Last week, the Rams smashed the

   Cowboys at home winning 34-14 as 8-point home

   dogs. They again were fortunate as they caught the

   Cowboys without Tony Romo, and also benefited

   from 4 Dallas turnovers. But St Louis finds itself in

   the bad spot here. Off back-to-back underdog wins,

   the Rams must travel east and play this game

   against either a desperate Patriots team or a

   confident Patriots team. This write-up comes before

   the Monday game, but even without knowing if the

   Patriots won or lost, the Rams are in a tough

   situation.

   The Patriots should be able to throw with great

   efficiency as the Rams allow over 8 yards per pass

   attempt. And we haven’t seen New England explode

   in the passing game under Cassel yet, but this could

   very well be that breakout game, especially if he

   plays like he did against the Jets and 49ers. If that

   happens, things could get ugly here. Over the last

   two years, St Louis has lost 8 games on the road.

   All eight of those losses have come by at least 9

   points or more with the average loss coming by 24

   points per game. Over that same time frame, the

   Patriots have won 11 games at home. Ten of those eleven

   wins have come by 7 points or more with the average

   winning margin coming by 18 points per game. The Rams

   are not as good as their last two wins suggest, and they’ll

   resemble the awful 0-4 Rams here. Patriots by 14.

   New York Giants (+3, -120) over @Steelers

   Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   The team with the second best record in the AFC

   meets the team with the top record in the NFC here.

   And what do they have in common? Neither one of

   them has beaten a team with a winning record.

   Sure, they’ve both benefited from some fortuitous

   scheduling and catching teams with problems, but

   these two have won games, and you can’t ask for

   anything more than that. After avoiding it

   impressively for a while, the dreaded post-Super

   Bowl hangover has apparently caught up with the

   New York Giants. Clearly, this team had a lot of

   trouble getting motivated for the Browns and Niners

   the past couple of weeks. “I think we’re capable of

   playing a whole lot better than we did,” said Giants

   mentor Tom Coughlin following their ugly (teams

   combined for 24 penalties for 214 yards) win over

   San Francisco. But showing how he’s learned to

   coddle the modern player, Coughlin quickly added

   “but as I told the players, the objective was to win

   one game.”

   The Steelers offensive line doesn’t like Ben

   Roethlisberger’s penchant for holding onto the ball,

   leading to a lot of sacks that they’re blamed for. But

   clearly this isn’t the best pass-protecting unit in the

   league either. That problem was masked by facing

   the toothless Bengals Sunday, but it won’t be here.

   Giants have been stumbling around, looking for a

   challenge, and they have one here. And they have

   the defensive line and pass rush to get in Big Ben’s

   face and really cause him some problems. On the

   other side of the ball there is certainly some concern

   about Plaxico Burress’s diva act, as he and Coughlin

   got into a shouting match Sunday after Plax picked

   up a 15-yard personal foul call for arguing a

   phantom offensive pass interference call, which

   negated a great catch for an important gain. The

   team played with tremendous passion when Burress

   was suspended for the Seahawks game, but have

   played inspired football the past two weeks upon his

   return. Maybe Coughlin needs to look for a reason

   to give Burress the boot once again.

   The Steelers running game has been shut down by a

   couple of solid defenses (33 yards vs. the Eagles, 69

   yards vs. the Ravens) and if the Giants can slow

   them down you have to figure the pass rush (5

   sacks and constant pressure against San Francisco)

   can get to Roethlisberger Some matchups favor the

   Giants here, and the spotlight game motivation

   helps quite a bit. It speaks volumes that they

   played so poorly against the Niners yet they still won

   by double digits and it could have been a 20+ point

   win were it not for a blocked punt returned for a TD.

   Giants offense needs a crisper effort, and we think they’ll

   offer one up in a big game. NFC looks to be better than

   the AFC this year and taking the best team from the better

   conference with the points seems like a sensible

   proposition. Giants by 3.

   Monday, October 27th, 2008

   Colts (+4) @Titans

   Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

   Tennessee is the deserving favorite here, as they

   bring a perfect 6-0 record into this contest. The

   defense is rock solid, ranking in the NFL’s top 3 in

   points per game (11.0), yards per game (269 yards

   per game), and yards per play (4.5 yards per play).

   They are definitely one of the league’s best coached

   by one of the league’s best in Jeff Fisher. However,

   it must be noted that they have not yet played a

   team with a winning record, and the best statistical

   offense they have shut down is Houston, a team

   who has gotten much of their yards in games where

   they trailed big early. In fact, 3 of the offenses they

   have faced are among the league’s bottom 6. Not

   saying the Titans aren’t the real deal, but they

   certainly better be if they want to pull away from a

   veteran Colts team that is basically in must-win

   mode here. Tennessee leans heavily on their

   defense, and I’d like to see them against a real

   offense before christening them the new king of this

   division.

   The Colts trail the Titans by 3 games in the AFC

   South, and have already lost a divisional game to

   Jacksonville. They have played plenty of big games

   over the last 5-6 seasons, and that experience will

   help them here. They have played a tougher

   schedule than has Tennessee, and have dealt with a

   ton of injuries. Although Joseph Addai is probably

   out again here, they are now healthy on the

   offensive line, and there’s a chance that one of the

   league’s best safeties Bob Sanders returns today

   (check status). Peyton Manning has seen everything

   this league can throw at him defensively, and I have

   to believe that he will find something that works

   against the Titans’ rugged defense as Indy still has

   plenty of weapons. He’s beaten the Titans 8 out of

   the last 10 times he’s faced them, with one of the

   losses coming in the season finale last year when

   the Colts rested their starters. That’s the only time

   that Tennessee has been favored during those 10

   meetings before today.

   Indy is 8-3 to the number as an away underdog

   under Tony Dungy, and have won 12 or more

   games in 5 straight seasons. You don’t get that kind

   of pedigree in a 4-point underdog too often. They

   have been in must win games before, while

   Tennessee is in unfamiliar territory here. They have

   the better record, but are they really better based

   on who they have beaten? Also, can they generate

   offense if Indy puts up some of their own points on

   that mighty defense? We shall see, but this game is

   priced like those questions don’t exist when they

   certainly do. Like I said, must-win for Manning and

   company. Indy by 3

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 22 2008 8:40pm
5. 0 likes

   POINTWISE COLLEGIATE

   FOOTBALL PROPHECY

   FOR GAMES TO BE PLAYED WEEKEND OF OCTOBER 25

   College

   ALABAMA over Tennessee RATING: 1

   GEORGIA TECH over Virginia RATING: 1

   TULSA over Central Florida RATING: 2

   TCU over Wyoming RATING: 3

   MISSOURI over Colorado RATING: 3

   OREGON over Arizona State RATING: 4

   NORTHWESTERN over Indiana RATING: 5

   VANDERBILT over Duke RATING: 5

   WEST VIRGINIA 17 - Auburn 15 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Not the explosive meeting

   that TV expected. Tigers 0-6 ATS LA, with last 5 decided by 1, 5, 2, 1, & 3 SU.

   Just 1 TD & 56 RYs vs Arkansas' paper "D", but rank #10 in scoring "D". WVa:

   only 17 ppg last 5, & ranks #78 in total "O". Potential, but we don't get near it.

   AIR FORCE 31 - New Mexico 30 - (8:00 - CBSC)) -- Home series, & Falcs on

   11-3 ATS run, while piling up 747 RYs last 2 wks. But they've allowed 30 & 33

   pts in their last 2 HGs, & Lobos are also cranking it up as well: 291 RYpg last 3

   outings, & in off 70-7 pasting of SDSt. Visitor is 30-18 ATS in NewMex games.

   FRIDAY

   Boise State 24 - SAN JOSE STATE 20 - (9:00 - ESPN2) -- Hard to fathom the

   Broncos picking off 5 Hawaii passes, & Moore clicking on 25-of-33, yet only a 20

   pt win. Spartans always play their best at home: amazing +187½ pts ATS hosts

   since '06, covering by 19 & 10 pts TY. Can't run, but neither can their opponents.

   SATURDAY

   ARMY 34 - Louisiana Tech 27 - (1:00 - ESPNC) -- A 364-15 RY edge for Tech

   LW, as latest to take advantage of hapless Idaho. LT lost its last 4 RGs by a

   combined 160-34 score, & with the Cadets rushing for 280, 291, 341, & 320

   yds in their last 4 gms (Mooney: 588 RYs last 3), could be more of the same.

   MARYLAND 26 - North Carolina State 24 - (3:30) -- Terps: from a 31-0 loss, to

   a 26-0 win. The dog is now +125½ pts ATS in MD games TY, & 26-14 ATS in

   Terps' last 40 games. NCSt: from 30 RYpg in previous 2 outings, to 157 vs

   FlaSt (led in 4th). Wilson: 5 TDs passes last 3. The puppy continues to yap.

   MIAMI-FLA 20 - Wake Forest 17 - (12:00) -- Improbable 10 ppg for the Deacons

   in their last 4 games, with Skinner at a mere 7/4. Wake can't run (64 RYpg 4 of

   last 5), but is 14-4 SU of late. 'Canes' QB move of Harris for Marve resulted in

   4 passing & 1 rushing TD, so a huge success. Bucks visiting trend in UM tilts.

   Northwestern 38 - INDIANA 14 - (12:00) -- Solid bounceback for 'Cats, off their

   1st loss, with rout of Purdue (Bacher: 3 TDs). Have 14 takeaways in last 3

   wins. Indy playing out the string. Five straight losses by an average score of

   40-15, while allowing 224, 236, 227, & 292 in their last 4. Chalk series again.

   Minnesota 27 - PURDUE 17 - (12:00) -- Amazing turnaround for rested Gophs,

   who sand at 6-1, following LY's 1-11 suffering. Note holding Illinois' 19th-rated

   run "O" to just 88 yds, as well as covering their last 4 lined RGs by 64½ pts. Iffy

   Boiler rushing "O": 168 RYs from Sheets in loss to NW, but try 3 Painter INTs.

   Boston College 22 - NORTH CAROLINA 20 - (12:00) -- Tight games the rule in

   Tar games, with 4 of last 5 decided by 3, 4, 5, 3 (OT) pts. Stand at 5-2, behind

   solid rush "D", with the dog a 17-5 ATS play in Heel games. Ditto BC, with the

   pup 8-2-1 ATS in ACC games. Took VTech, with just 82 RYs, & 3 Crane INTs.

   Cincinnati 23 - CONNECTICUT 16 - (12:00) -- Four missed FGs proved demise

   of UConn in 12-10 loss to Rutgers. Just 11 ppg for Huskies in last 2 outings,

   despite Brown standing at 1,274 RYs. Rested 'Cats have held all foes (except

   Okla) to 74 RYpg, & QB Anderson is in off 21-of-29 effort. Dominated yr ago.

   Illinois 30 - WISCONSIN 24 - (12:00) -- Badgers now 0-4 in Big10 for 1st time

   since '96, with 13 TOs in those 4 setbacks. And how about not reaching 180

   RYs in any of their last 4 games? As figured, Illini romped over Indy, & are at

   538 ypg in their last 3 outings. Finely balanced behind Juice, Ford, etc. Illinois.

   PITTSBURGH 17 - Rutgers 16 - (3:30) -- Five straight wins for Pitt, with McCoy

   at 149, 142, & 156 RYs last 3 wks. Nearly 500 yds for Panthers vs Navy, but

   dog is 19-4 ATS in Pitt games. Knights last 3 games: just 17, 10, 12 pts, but 3

   covers. Minus 116½ pts ATS in 14 of last 15 regular season gms. Pitt, barely.

   IOWA STATE 31 - Texas A&M 26 - (7:00) -- Nice one to avoid. Cycs a 73-17 pt

   deficit last 2 wks, allowing 56 FDs, following a pair of excruciating setbacks. At

   only 89 RYpg 4 of last 5. But Ags have dropped 3 straight, as well as -43½ pts

   ATS last 5. Can't run (0.9 ypr LW), & in off allowing 33 FDs & 561 yds. Pass.

   FLORIDA 41 - Kentucky 13 - (12:30) -- Gators in LSU/GA sandwich, but they've

   been awesome since upset loss to OleMiss, with a 89-28 pt edge, including

   that 51-21 bludgeoning of Lsu (265-80 RY edge). Two 'Cat TDs in final 4:15 to

   take Arkansas, behind 3 Hartline TDs, and rank #3 in scoring "D". Forget it.

   Mississippi 33 - ARKANSAS 20 - (7:00) -- Hogs hardly comforted with home

   field, as they've been outscored 87-21 in their 2 SEC hosters TY. In off blowing

   20-7 lead in final 4:15, altho Smith has motored for 358 RYs last 2 wks. Rebs

   nearly came all the way back from 27-3 halftime deficit vs 'Bama. Chalk series.

   BALL STATE 45 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (12:00) -- Rested Cards 7-0 first time

   since '65. 6-0 ATS by 64½ pts, but by just 1 & 5 pts at home. EM allowing 39

   ppg last 10 , as well as >230 RYs in 6 of last 7. Decent "O", but only one cover.

   BYU 51 - Unlv 17 - (2:00) -- Just like that, 16-game Coog run is over. A 240-23

   RY deficit at Tcu, with Hall sacked 7 times. But he is still at 21/5, & remember,

   BYU won its last 3 HGs by a combined score of 124-3. Vegas can't stop the

   run, allowing 1,006 last 3 games, & at 40 ppg "D" in its 4 losses. Bounceback!

   VANDERBILT 27 - Duke 7 - (3:00) -- 'Dores now at +67½ pts ATS TY, holding 5

   of last 7 foes below 18 pts. Stayed with MissSt & Ga in only losses, despite

   397-159 RY deficit. Finally some rushing "O" for Imps, but still just 85 RYpg

   last 4. Note 42-14 pt deficit to wind up vs Miami. Vandy becomes bowl eligible.

   TULANE 38 - Rice 36 - (3:00) -- Check Owls' Clement with 13 TD passes last 3

   games, including six vs SoMiss (22/5). Greenie RB Anderson: 852 yds last 3

   (255 vs Utep), but in off losing on a 68-yd pass, & lost last HG by 51 pts ATS.

   Fresno State 45 - UTAH STATE 34 - (3:00) -- Two teams in search of a defense.

   FSt hasn't covered since its opener vs Rutgers, with 4 of last 5 decided by 3, 1,

   5, 3 pts SU. No rushing "D": 215 RYs by Idaho. Similar lot for Ags, who've

   ceded 46.4 ppg in 5 of last 6 games. Host has covered last 4 Ag tilts by 43 pts.

   NAVY 40 - Smu 27 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Ponies allowing >500 ypg. Worst "D" in

   land, & 2nd worst rushing "O", but are just a pt away from 4 straight covers.

   QB Mitchell: 8 TD passes last 2 wks. Middies couldn't stay with Pitt (248-yd

   deficit), & rank 86th in total "D". Always super, overland, but are hurting at QB.

   Alabama 34 - TENNESSEE 13 - (3:30) -- Tide now 7-0 (first time ever for Saban).

   Nearly blew comfy lead vs OleMiss (just 107 RYs), but have played their best

   away (3-0 ATS by 72½ pts). Vols in off 34-3 win, despite just 16 FDs & 275

   yds (2 TDs on INT returns). Were at 11 ppg previous 4, & rank 104 in total "D".

   Oregon 31 - ARIZONA STATE 17 - (10:00) -- Rested Ducks at 43 ppg 18 of last

   20 outings. No Roper last game, & are minus 31½ pts ATS last 2 tilts. But own

   Devils, overland (Wise Points), & are super off a bye. Four straight losses for

   ASU, including 4, 71, & 75 RYs in last 3 efforts. Carpenter? Just 8/5 thus far.

   CALIFORNIA 27 - Ucla 22 - (3:30) -- Never-say-die Bruins rank 114th in run "O":

   323-63 & 250-86 RY deficits last 2 (sacked 7 times by Stanford), but have

   covered last 4. Cal not to be trusted. Check 11 takeaways in their 4 wins, but

   just 104 RYpg last 4 tilts, despite 110 yds from Best LW. QB a huge question.

   MIAMI-OHIO 31 - Kent State 27 - (3:30) -- Let's see. Flashes on 0-12-1 spread

   slide, but have run for 627 yds last 3, missing spot by 1, 0, & 6 pts. Belton a

   spark at QB for MU (218 RYs in upset of BG), but dog 15-5 ATS in 'Hawk tilts.

   GEORGIA TECH 38 - Virginia 13 - (3:30) -- Overland exploits of Cavs ended at

   2 (>100 yd deficit in LW's OT comeback win). So 3 straight wins, but all at

   home. Now take to road, where they have a 76-13 pt deficit. Tech: 4 straight

   wins, 5 straight covers, & a 1,309-513 RY edge in lined games. Home series.

   TEXAS 47 - Oklahoma State 34 - (8:30) -- Letdown? Hardly. McCoy: 29-of-32

   vs Mizzou. Now at 19/3 & 81%! And he was superb last 2 vs OklaSt. 'Boys

   are off to best start (7-0) in 60 years, & like the Steers, are also perfect vs the

   pts. Don't forget Robinson with 430 PYs vs Texas LY. Bucking either is futile.

   Georgia 26 - LSU 17 - (3:30) -- Nice bounceback for Bengals LW, holding SoCar

   to just 4 2nd half FDs in 24-17 comeback win. Came from 80 RYs to 164. But

   still minus 33 pts ATS last 3 games. 'Dawgs in dominant stat win over Vandy

   (Moreno: 172 RYs), but 2 more Stafford INTs. "D": <18 pts 9-of-10 lined tilts.

   Oklahoma 48 - KANSAS STATE 17 - (12:30) -- Okies at 47.5 ppg in their last 7

   lined wins, so why not again? Bradford (26/5) in off school-record 468 PYs, so

   try 674 yds vs that Kansas "D". 'Cat QB Freeman at 12/2 TY, & has 5 rushing

   TDs last 2 wks, but can't ignore KSt's 112th ranked "D". Juggernaut rolls on.

   Michigan State 30 - MICHIGAN 20 - (3:30) -- Embarrassing Wolve season just

   continues. Were outscored 39-0 to wind up PennSt loss. Rank 108th in total

   "O", altho Minor a fine 117 RYs vs Nits. Spartans had won 6 straight before 5

   TO loss to OhioSt. Just 67 yds for Ringer, but still 963 last 6. Mild MichSt call.

   Virginia Tech 20 - FLORIDA STATE 19 - (3:30) -- Five takeaways for Hokies,

   including a couple of TDs on INT returns, yet a 28-23 loss to BC. But only Ga

   Tech on 'em, so may be able to control Ponder & Co of the 'Noles. The dog &

   visitor is 6-1 ATS in VT games, while the pup is 21-10 ATS in Sem tilts. Upset.

   Bowling Green 24 - NO ILLINOIS 23 - (4:00) -- Visitor now 7-0 ATS in Falcon

   games by 125½ pts! NIU has allowed only 2 "O" TDs in last 21 quarters (held

   last 5 foes to 7 ppg), & QB is Harnish back. But we string along with line trend.

   New Mexico State 38 - IDAHO 24 - (5:00) -- Back to normal for Vandals with

   364-15 RY deficit at LaTech, after 215 RYs in last HG. Allowing 49 ppg in lined

   gms TY. But NMSt "D": 39 ppg since LY, & is 105th in rushing. We stay away.

   TCU 58 - Wyoming 7 - (6:00) -- What a team? Frogs have a 73-14 pt edge at

   home since loss to Oklahoma (+32½ ATS), with a 615 RY edge! Balanced &

   well remember LY's heartbreaking loss to 'Boys. WY outscored 68-0 in its last

   2 RGs, & is on an 0-14 spread slide. Try a 153-23 pt deficit in its last 4 games.

   Central Michigan 40 - TOLEDO 14 - (12:00) -- Brunner for LeFevour (ankle) for

   Chips: 346 PYs in 38-28 win over WM (12-pt cover). CM now +123½ pts ATS

   in last 15 MAC tilts. Rockets in epic tailspin, losing last 2 MAC games, 69-7.

   South Florida 31 - LOUISVILLE 17 - (3:30) -- Series host has been the play

   (Wise Points), but we buck it. Check Bulls holding 5-of-7 foes to just 10 FDpg.

   Balanced behind Grothe leadership. Cards came back from 14-0 deficit LW,

   moving to 4-2. Decent run "O" & "D", but Bulls covered their last RG by 21½.

   NEBRASKA 33 - Baylor 24 - (7:00) -- Finally some overland production for Neb,

   in 35-7 wipeout of IowaSt, coming from 137 RYpg to 220. And note Ganz with

   677 PYs last 2 wks. Improved Bears in off 250-yd deficit at OkieSt, & won't

   stay with Huskers, altho they are +42 pts ATS in their last 5 games. Near spot.

   Texas Tech 45 - KANSAS 41 - (12:00) -- Raiders stand at 7-0, but now it starts.

   Harrell (23/5): 450 PYs vs A&M, & check >100 RYs in every game. But check

   allowing 28 ppg in last 3 tilts. KU got the cover vs Okla, despite being stung for

   36 FDs & 674 yds. Reesing at 17/5 & 70%, but Jays just 88th in rushing "O".

   MISSOURI 57 - Colorado 20 - (6:30) -- Quite a comedown for Tigers, who have

   tumbled from 3rd to 16th in the polls in just 2 wks. Unbelievable 390-94 RY

   deficit in losses to OklaSt & Texas. But still at 41 ppg last 21, & destroyed the

   Buffs LY (Wise Points). CU a mere 16 ppg in last 5 tilts. Lambs to slaughter.

   Penn State 27 - OHIO STATE 20 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Miracle cover for Lions LW,

   with 80-yd pass/run in final 2:05. Now at 1,965 RYs & 1,985 PYs in 8-0 start

   (363-94 pt edge). Royster LW: 174 RYs. Bucks in off first truly impressive

   showing of year, but still just 18 FDs & 332 yds. Nothing left on field in this one.

   So Mississippi 32 - MEMPHIS 24 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Tigers represented our only

   rated college loss LW, losing top 2 QBs in game's first 11 minutes. Remember,

   Hall had 6 TD throws in previous 2 games. Four straight losses for Eagles,

   despite Davis throwing for 461 yds & 4 TDs vs Rice. Defense is still an issue.

   Notre Dame 34 - WASHINGTON 19 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Decent showing for Wash,

   in loss to OregSt. A mere 44-yd deficit, but killed by 3 Fouch INTs. Now stand

   at 0-6, & rank 118th on "D". Irish are rested, & Clausen has burned 'em up of

   late: 1,005 PYs (8/2) in last 3 games. Note just 19 ppg "D" in ND's last 7 tilts.

   Colorado State 27 - SAN DIEGO STATE 17 - (9:30) -- Extremely difficult to back

   either team, as Rams have lost their only 2 RGs to date, by a combined 101-23

   score, & have been outrushed 478-121 the past 2 wks. But Aztecs in similar

   rut, with an 820-101 RY deficit last 2 games, & in off 70-7 pasting. Steer clear.

   So California 34 - ARIZONA 24 - (10:15 - FSN) -- Latest Troy accomplishment:

   Laying 42 pts, & covering by 27. Amazing 28-4 FD & 625-116 yd edges, with

   5 TD passes from Sanchez. But 'Cats have a 201-57 pt edge at home, & in off

   turning 24-14 deficit, into a 42-27 win over Cal. Tuitama keeps this near spot.

   Nevada 31 - HAWAII 21 - (12:05) -- Check Reno with a 1,305-253 RY edge in its

   last 4 games, behind Kaepernick's leadership. Check also 49 & 49 pts in last

   2 RGs. 'Bows improved, but killed by Funaki's inconsistency (5 INTs vs Boise).

   SUNDAY

   TULSA 61 - Central Florida 20 - (8:00) -- Revenge! 'Canes something else. Try

   791 yds in rout of Utep. Johnson (31/8): 434 yds & 5 TDs, & check 38.8 yds per

   catch for Marion LW. Knights gained just 78 yds at Miami & 280 on SMU's "D".

   TUESDAY

   Buffalo 27 - OHIO U 23 - (7:00 - ESPNU) -- Could be first-ever RF role for Bulls,

   who are in off a pair of OT games. Have been outrushed 528-107 in 2 of last 3

   games, but Willy is a dependable 14/4. Visitor is 6-0 ATS in BU games of late.

   Houston 31 - MARSHALL 21 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Coogs on 3-game run, with

   1,705 yds, but needed 2 TDs in final 2:34 to take SMU's sieve. Keenum: 23/5.

   Herd just the opposite: 3 straight losses, with a 737-211 RY deficit. And again.

   ADDED GAMES

   MISSISSIPPI ST 21 - Mid Tenn St 17

   LA-MONROE 27 - Fla Atlantic 24

   Troy 38 - NORTH TEXAS 10

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 22 2008 8:43pm
6. 0 likes

   POINTWISE COLLEGIATE

   FOOTBALL PROPHECY

   FOR GAMES TO BE PLAYED WEEKEND OF OCTOBER 25

   NFL

   WASHINGTON over Detroit RATING: 3

   PHILADELPHIA over Atlanta RATING: 4

   MIAMI over Buffalo RATING: 4

   NEW YORK JETS over Kansas City RATING: 5

   NEW ENGLAND over St Louis RATING: 5

   BALTIMORE 23 - Oakland 10 - (1:00) -- Ravens' NFL best "D" put the clamps

   on streaking Dolphins, allowing Miami only 71 RYs, & in the process stopping

   their own 3-game slide. And how about >100 RYs for McGahee. Baltimore

   has held foes to 10, 10, & 13 pts at home so far, & with the Raiders coming in

   with the 23rd ranked "O", have to see more of the same. Oakland gave Cable

   his 1st win on a 57-yd Janikowski OT FG, despite a 242 RY "D", so figure back

   to the drawing board vs this squad. Baltimore is 7-1 ATS hosting Oakland,

   while the Raiders are 17-27 ATS on the road of late (lost their last RG, 34-3).

   San Diego 27 - NEW ORLEANS 20 - (1:00) -- Chargers couldn't maintain their

   psyche edge, displayed in previous week's rout of the Pats, succumbing to the

   Bills, with only 263 yds, altho Rivers was a decent 2/1 & now 16/5 for the year.

   But still on a 12-4 ATS run, & chance to take on the Saints, possibly without

   Bush, who went out vs Carolina (knee). Check Saints' 17-0 pt deficit after he

   left. And Brees just 21-of-39, after a 26-of-30 showing vs the Raiders. Saints

   have allowed at least 24 pts in 7 of their last 10 games, & are 1-11 ATS home

   vs a foe off a RG. SD is 14-4 ATS off a loss, & 13-4 ATS as a RF of <4 pts.

   NEW YORK JETS 34 - Kansas City 13 - (1:00) -- Futility seems the only word

   to properly describe the Chiefs, who've dropped their last 2 games by near

   identical 34-0 & 34-10 scores (only pts LW coming in final 4 minutes). Own

   worst run "D" in the NFL, & certainly proved that point by allowing 332 RYs

   (8.3 ypr) in loss to the Titans. Now on 1-14 SU run. Jets in off OT loss to the

   Raiders, despite 242 RYs, including 159 from Jones (7.3 ypr). NY has held 6

   of its last 8 foes to 14 ppg, & has averaged 41 ppg in its last 2 HGs. KC 4-14

   ATS vs the AFC East, as well as 5-10 ATS away vs a .500 or better opponent.

   MIAMI 23 - Buffalo 17 - (1:00) -- Just 71 RYs for the Dolphins, in their loss to the

   Ravens, after 160 RYpg in previous 3 outings. Simply never in that one, altho

   Pennington continues his brilliant play, which has him at 82-of-109 the last 4

   weeks (75%). Bills' bye week enabled Edwards to return, & a solid 25-of-30

   for 261 yds vs the Chargers was the result. Just a single setback for Buffalo,

   but that came in their last RG by the tune of 41-17. As a matter of fact, the Bills

   average just 13.7 ppg in their last dozen RGs. Buffalo is 8-0 ATS vs Miami,

   but it must be noted that the Dolphs had a record of 20-44 during that period.

   DALLAS 20 - Tampa Bay 17 - (1:00) -- No Romo for the 'Boys in their lopsided

   loss to the Rams, with Johnson no help (3 INTs). But neither play "D", so note

   that Dallas allowed TD drives on StLouis' first 3 possessions, for a quick 21-7

   hole. Thus the Cowboys have dropped 3-of-4, after appearing as the team to

   beat with their impressive 3-0 start. And Dallas is on a money-burning 2-10

   spread run, as well, including 0-5 ATS at home, by 48 pts. The Bucs allowed

   covering TD in dying minutes vs Seattle, despite 22-7 FD, 402-176 yd edges.

   Last 4 Tampa RGs have been decided by 2, 4, 3, & 3 pts SU. That continues.

   PHILADELPHIA 24 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Rematch of '04 NFC Championship

   game. Neither team played LW, which has to be a help to the Eagles, as a

   healthy Westbrook is essential. Philly finally had a bit of a breather in its last

   game, a 40-26 win over SanFran, after 4 straight wars vs Dallas, Pittsburgh,

   Chicago, & Washington. Solid shot at a repeat here, as the 4-2 Falcons have

   allowed 24, 24, & 24 pts in their 3 RGs to date. Took the Bears on a 48-yd

   Elam FG as time ran out, before their break, but doubt that they will have that

   chance here. Eags are 16-10 ATS off a SU/ATS win, & won't let this get away.

   NEW ENGLAND 27 - St Louis 13 - (1:00) -- Two straight wins for the Rams,

   under Haslett, scoring TDs on their first 3 drives vs Dallas. Check Jackson's

   160 RYs & 3 TDs in that one. But still 5-16 ATS since LY, allowing 33 ppg in

   last 9 contests. Catching the Pats off their Monday Nighter vs the Broncos is

   a plus, & the visitor is 6-1 ATS in NewEngland tilts, with Pats losing their last

   HG by 37½ pts ATS. However, StLouis is 11-22 ATS away vs winning teams,

   while the Patriots are an amazing 11-0 ATS vs the NFC West, & 38-15 ATS as

   a non-division HF. Rematch of '01 Super Bowl goes to the Patriots once again.

   CAROLINA 27 - Arizona 17 - (1:00) -- Well, the dog, which was 54-28 ATS in

   Panther games, has taken it on the chin over the last 5 weeks, with the chalk

   covering all 5. Carolina has opened it up at home of late, with a combined pt

   edge of 88-16 in its last 3 HF setups. The Cards are in off their bye week, &

   enjoy a 2-game lead in their division, with Warner the 2nd rated passer in the

   NFL. He is now 12/5. Arizona is 12-6 ATS off a bye, but 9-23 ATS on the non

   division road, as well as 1-10 ATS in Oct off a SU dog win. LY, the Panthers

   took the measure of the Cards, 25-10, & that one was in Arizona. Call repeat.

   Washington 31 - DETROIT 13 - (1:00) -- Two straight covers for the winless

   Lions, despite a 47-23 FD deficit, with 1 of their 2 TDs vs the Texans coming on

   a 96-yd pass. Fact is that Detroit is on a 1-13 SU slide, while allowing 33.3 ppg

   in its last 12 contests, & ranking 30th or worse in 6-of-8 major stat columns.

   'Skins have held 16 foes to 20 pts or less since LY, & have covered their last 2

   RGs by 13 & 12 pts. And check a 1,023-451 RY edge for the 'Skins, with

   Portis at an NFL best 818 RYs (175 LW). Can't see the Lions, with their 32nd

   ranked "D", doing much containing. Took 'em by 31 last year, & are improved.

   JACKSONVILLE 20 - Cleveland 17 - (4:05) -- Only one way to go when the Jags

   take the field, & that's with the dog, which has covered their last 8 contests.

   And that includes 5 upsets in their 6 games to date. Went from 28-14 FD &

   200 yd deficits, to 26-19 FD & 100 yd edges in their last 2 games, with Garrard

   25-of-34 vs the Broncos. The Browns are averaging only 13.6 ppg in 8 of their

   last 9 outings, but note allowing 19 pts or less in 9 of their last 10 games. But

   they can crank it up at times, such as their upset of the Giants, with 320 PYs

   from Anderson. J'Ville 0-8 ATS as a chalk of 6+ pts vs an opponent off a RG.

   PITTSBURGH 23 - New York Giants 19 - (4:15) -- Plaxico Burress returns to

   Pittsburgh. Well, maybe. Steelers tough team to get a handle on, as 3 of their

   previous 4 games were decided by 4, 3, & 5 pts SU, before they put a 38-10

   pasting on the hapless Bengals. Moore for the injured Parker: 120 RYs (6.0

   ypr). Champ Giants just a safety away from 2 straight ATS setbacks, & check

   a 707-646 yd deficit for NY in those contests vs 2-5 SanFran, & 2-4 Cleveland.

   Check Giant RB Ward with 101 RYs on just 10 carries vs the Niners. Pitt is

   17-7 ATS home off a win of 14+ pts, & 27-15 ATS home off a DD division win.

   SAN FRANCISCO 27 - Seattle 20 - (4:15) -- First revenge setup of the season,

   with the Seahawks seeking retribution for earlier 33-30 OT home loss to the

   Niners. And it was legit, as SanFran held a 365-351 yd edge in that 9½ pt

   cover. The Niners still not a defensive force, allowing >28 pts in 5 of their last

   6 games, but the Seahawks on the road, without Hasselbeck, are lost. Check

   deficits of 22-7 in FDs, 402-176 in yds, & 41:41-18:19 possession time, in loss

   to the Bucs. But a cover, nonetheless, thanks to a 17-yd drive a KO return.

   'Hawks had allowed 44, 42, 34, & 44 pts in their 4 RGs previous to that joke.

   HOUSTON 34 - Cincinnati 17 - (4:05) -- Well, the Texans did it to us again. No

   less than 3 straight excruciating losses in the last 3 wks (1, 2, 2½ pt setbacks),

   with latest vs Detroit, as a 28-10 lead in the 4th, deteriorated into a 28-21 win

   (96-yd TD pass). So, a 52-29 FD edge for Houston the past 2 wks, but 0-2

   ATS. This marks their 4th straight HG, thanks to schedule rearranging, & we

   will string along with them again, as they average 30.5 ppg at home in their last

   8 hosters. Cincy the pits. An 0-7 record (5th time in 18 yrs), with a 1,066-512

   RY deficit, altho the dog is 12-4 ATS in Bengal games of late. Finally a cover.

   MONDAY

   TENNESSEE 30 - Indianapolis 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Titans just keep on doing

   it. Not only are they the only unbeaten team in the NFL, but they've gone 5-0-1

   ATS this year, with 10, 18, 14½, 10, & 15 pt covers. Racked up 332 RYs vs KC,

   with Johnson & White posting 168 & 149 RYs, respectively. Colts still seeking an

   overland game, as they've been outrushed 922-420 thus far, & Manning is off a

   pair of crucial INTs in loss to the Packers. And check Tennessee with allowing

   less than 18 pts in each of its last 10 games. We'll give the Colts a bit more than

   that, but bucking this Titan squad has been suicidal. Are 4-0 ATS in series lately

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 22 2008 8:46pm
7. 0 likes

   STAT FOX THE PLATINUM SHEET

   10/24/2008 (107) BOISE ST at (108) SAN JOSE ST

   Dick Tomey’s teams at San Jose State have been about as reliable

   as they come when playing at home, going 12-4 ATS in his tenure.

   The Spartans are actually working on a 9-game home ATS winning

   streak coming into this “showdown” with Boise State. So why in the

   world would I go the other way and back the road favored Broncos

   here? Well, how about because it is not a “showdown”. These teams

   are far from equals and I’ve seen too many people trying to compare

   this to the game of 2006 in which San Jose State nearly upended

   Boise as a 13-point home dog. That line was more befitting of the

   strength of the teams. This one is not. SJS is 5-2 but owns wins over

   Cal Davis, SDSU, Hawaii, Utah St, and New Mexico St, certainly not

   the elite of college football. As such, the

   Spartans’ StatFox Outplay Factor Rating is

   -2.2. Boise’s meanwhile, is +16.9. Unless

   you’re giving Tomey’s team 12.1 points for

   home field advantage, this number is off.

   The Broncos are +2.1 in yards per play

   differential. They are an elite team. The line

   does not reflect it.

   Play: Boise St -7

   10/25/2008 (121) CINCINNATI at (122) CONNECTICUT

   This Cincinnati-Connecticut game also

   features one of the better home teams in

   college football playing in a difficult spot.

   This time around, the Huskies have some

   matchup problems to deal with. Already

   down to their second string QB, UConn

   relies heavily on the run. Unfortunately for

   them, one of HC Brian Kelly’s team’s best

   strengths year-in and year-out is stopping

   the run. This year they are allowing just 2.9

   YPR, on par with their typical performance.

   The Bearcats are quietly playing as well as

   anyone in the Big East of late, and have

   only a loss at Oklahoma to blemish their

   record. They are playing particularly well defensively, and I’ll turn to the

   StatFox Money Line FoxSheet for a real situational gem to convince

   me of their worth this week: Play On - A road team vs. the money line

   (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games

   against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points. (25-3 over the last 10

   seasons.) (89.3%, +26.8 units. Rating = 6*). With a pick em’ spread,

   you need only to pick the winner, and a near 90% system helps me

   do that.

   Play: Cincinnati PK

   10/25/2008 (145) ALABAMA at (146) TENNESSEE

   Tennessee’s offense is in shambles, and their offensive Outplay

   Factor Rating of -0.6 proves it. For a typically elite football program,

   that type of production is awful. Unfortunately for the Volunteers, they

   are about to face their best defensive opponent of the year, Alabama.

   This trend illustrates how poorly HC Phil Fullmer’s team has historically

   performed against dominant defensive teams: TENNESSEE is 2-14

   ATS (-13.4 Units) in home games versus excellent defensive teams -

   allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. If that’s not enough to validate

   backing one of the nation’s best teams as less than a TD favorite, the

   StatFox Game Estimator on FoxSheets calls for a 32-14 ‘Bama win,

   and the ROAD TEAM is 12-3 ATS in ALABAMA-TENNESSEE series

   since ‘93.

   Play: Alabama -6

   10/25/2008 (157) GEORGIA at (158) LSU

   Sometimes in big games, it can be as simple as just taking the better

   team in games with small pointspreads.

   When the team you believe is the better

   one is actually the underdog, that is simply

   icing on the cake. I’ll say it as clearly as I

   can. I believe Georgia is a better team

   than LSU. The Bulldogs are arguably

   better defensively (which the stats prove)

   and have far more big play capability on

   offense. In games that are supposed to be

   physical, which this one should be, it is the

   team that strikes more big plays on offense

   that typically wins. Let’s compare some of

   the head-to-head numbers of these teams:

   Schedule strength thus far – Georgia 38.4,

   LSU 33.3, Yards per play differential –

   Georgia +2.0, LSU +1.1, StatFox Outplay

   Factor Rating – Georgia +14.9, LSU +4.4,

   Yards per pass attempt – Georgia 8.5, LSU

   7.2. HC Mark Richt always has his team

   ready on the road for big games: GEORGIA

   is 6-1 against the money line (+8.1 Units) in

   road games versus good defensive teams -

   allowing <=310 YPG over the L3 seasons.

   Why should this be any different?

   Play: Georgia +3

   10/25/2008 (163) VIRGINIA TECH at (164) FLORIDA ST

   In watching Florida State struggle with NC State last Thursday night,

   I am convinced that the Seminoles are not past their problems of

   recent years. For some reason, this program just cannot get it going

   consistently on offense. Their pass protection is horrible, and their

   constant mistakes are a nightmare for those betting on them. Well,

   don’t count me among that latter group this week against perennially

   tough road pooch Va Tech (Beamer is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a road

   underdog of 3.5 to 7 points as the coach of VIRGINIA TECH). This is

   another one of those games where I feel the underdog is the better

   team, and I’ll call on the Outplay Factor Ratings to validate that point:

   Hokies +8.2, FSU +1.1. HC Bobby Bowden’s hasn’t played a whole lot

   of tough opponents, Tech has. That should be the difference here. Take

   the free points but don’t forget about the chance for the outri

   ght upset.

   Play: Virginia Tech +4

   TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:

   1. TCU (-31) over WYOMING 10

   2. HAWAII (+1.5) over NEVADA 9.5

   3. WASHINGTON (+11) over NOTRE DAME 8

   4. W VIRGINIA (-3.5) over AUBURN 7.5

   5. BYU (-23) over UNLV 7

   6. TENNESSEE (+6.5) over ALABAMA 6.5

   TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:

   1. NEBRASKA (-9.5) over BAYLOR 13

   2. MIDDLE TENN ST (+13.5) over MISSISSIPPI S 13

   3. TULSA (-21) over UCF 12

   4. RICE (+2.5) over TULANE 11

   5. UTAH ST (+17) over FRESNO ST 10

   6. GEORGIA (+1.5) over LSU 9.5

   TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 9 (ATS & Total)

   MULTIPLE GAMES

   Play Against - Any team (FLORIDA, C MICHIGAN, FRESNO ST) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a

   poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.

   The situation’s record this season is: (0-1). L3 Seasons: (5-3). L5 Seasons: (14-4). Since 1992: (47-17).

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (155) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (156) TEXAS

   Play Against - Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing

   yards/game, after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game.

   The situation’s record this season is: (6-1). L3 Seasons: (14-4). L5 Seasons: (22-5). Since 1992: (46-20).

   MULTIPLE GAMES

   Play Against - A home team (BYU, INDIANA, IOWA ST, TULANE) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more

   points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last

   three games.The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (11-4). L5 Seasons: (19-6). Since 1992: (31-8).

   TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 9 (ATS & Total)

   Friday, 10/24/2008 (107) BOISE ST vs. (108) SAN JOSE ST

   Dick Tomey is 24-3 UNDER (+20.7 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of SAN JOSE ST. The average

   score was Tomey 23.7, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 6*)

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (161) MICHIGAN ST vs. (162) MICHIGAN

   Rich Rodriguez is 14-0 ATS (+14 Units) after gaining 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has

   coached since 1992. The average score was Rodriguez 37.9, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 6*)

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (155) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (156) TEXAS

   Mack Brown is 15-1 OVER (+13.9 Units) after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games as the coach

   of TEXAS. The average score was Brown 47.4, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 6*)

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (155) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (156) TEXAS

   Mack Brown is 12-0 OVER (+12 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of TEXAS. The

   average score was Brown 43.8, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 6*)

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (169) WYOMING vs. (170) TCU

   WYOMING is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was

   WYOMING 11.7, OPPONENT 30.3 - (Rating = 5*)

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (147) OREGON vs. (148) ARIZONA ST

   ARIZONA ST is 11-0 OVER (+11 Units) in home games after scoring 14 points or less last game since 1992. The average

   score was ARIZONA ST 31.2, OPPONENT 23.9 - (Rating = 4*)

   Friday, 10/24/2008 (107) BOISE ST vs. (108) SAN JOSE ST

   BOISE ST is 48-16 ATS (+30.4 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST

   43.7, OPPONENT 20.8 - (Rating = 3*)

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (189) USC vs. (190) ARIZONA

   Pete Carroll is 36-13 ATS (+21.7 Units) in the second half of the season as the coach of USC. The average score was

   Carroll 38.8, OPPONENT 16.6 - (Rating = 3*)

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (169) WYOMING vs. (170) TCU

   Joe Glenn is 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of WYOMING.

   The average score was Glenn 20.5, OPPONENT 29.4 - (Rating = 4*)

   TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 9 (ATS & Total)

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (183) SOUTHERN MISS vs. (184) MEMPHIS

   SOUTHERN MISS is 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS vs. MEMPHIS since 1992.

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (131) OLE MISS vs. (132) ARKANSAS

   The FAVORITE is 13-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in OLE MISS-ARKANSAS series since ‘92.

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (153) VIRGINIA VS. GEORGIA TECH

   The HOME TEAM is 13-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in VIRGINIA-GEORGIA TECH series since ‘94.

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (145) ALABAMA VS. (146) TENNESSEE

   The ROAD TEAM is 12-3 ATS in ALABAMA-TENNESSEE series since ‘93.

   Saturday, 10/25/2008 (149) UCLA VS. CALIFORNIA

   The UNDERDOG is 10-2 ATS in UCLA-CALIFORNIA series since ‘95.

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 22 2008 8:47pm
8. 0 likes

   STAT FOX THE PLATINUM SHEET - NFL

   10/26/2008 (209) ATLANTA at (210) PHILADELPHIA

   The Eagles’ post-bye trend shows that they’ve gone 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS

   when coming out of the bye week, allowing just 8.8 PPG in those contests.

   Why might this be? Well, how about the fact that HC Andy Reid and DC

   Jimmy Johnson get an extra week of preparation to scheme for the postbye

   opponent? Johnson’s blitzing tactics are legendary among NFL

   coaches, and with the extra time to prepare he really gets it done. Think of

   the lunch pail of looks he’s going to throw at rookie QB Matt Ryan and the

   Falcons this week. On top of that, the last four times Atlanta has trekked to

   the City of Brotherly Love, they are 0-4 SU & ATS, being outscored by an

   average of 16 PPG. Atlanta has played much better at home this season

   as it is. This figures to be a learning experience for Ryan in one of the

   league’s toughest venues. He’ll be lucky to get Atlanta in double-digits.

   Play: Philadelphia -8

   10/26/2008 (213) ARIZONA at (214) CAROLINA

   It’s said that a good defense will beat a good

   offense almost every time, especially when

   that dominant defensive team is at home.

   Well, the Panthers are at home here, and

   have played spectacularly in Carolina in the

   early going. So far in four home games, HC

   John Fox’s team is outscoring its opponents

   27.0-8.2. It just so happens they are hitting on

   big plays offensively at home too, averaging

   8.8 yards per pass attempt. With a 6-0-1

   ATS record in their L7 games as hosts,

   Carolina is really gaining the type of home

   field confidence it takes to contend. Here’s

   they’ll welcome an Arizona team that has had

   awful problems trying to contain teams on the

   road. In fact, in their last six games away from

   home, the Cardinals are yielding 32.2 PPG.

   That offers an incredible defensive advantage

   for the Panthers in this spot, since they are

   38-14 ATS vs. teams allowing more than 24

   PPG since franchise inception.

   Play: Carolina -4.5

   10/26/2008 (215) WASHINGTON at (216) DETROIT

   I’m going to use some of my own game writeup logic in the matchup

   section as evidence to why Detroit might be worthy of your betting dollar

   this Sunday. In the game at Houston this past week, I heard, for the first

   time, announcers discussing the possibility of the Lions not winning a

   game this season. Now, while Miami came close last season, the mere

   thought is outlandish. What is also shows is that the public sentiment

   against Detroit is at an all-time low. Typically, that makes for a great time to

   bet a NFL team. In this case, you can parlay that negative sentiment with

   the fact that Washington is one of the best teams in the league to fade as a

   favorite. Look at these trends on the Redskins: 1) 1-10 ATS vs. teams with

   a losing record the L3 seasons, outscored by 3.4 PPG. 2) 12-19 ATS in

   L31 as a road favorite. For the record, the home team in this head-to-head

   series is also 7-1 ATS in L8. It was good to see Detroit rally vs. the Texans

   to give themselves at the win after being down big, I expect them to bring

   some of that energy into this week’s game.

   Play: Detroit +7.5

   10/27/2008 (225) INDIANAPOLIS at (226) TENNESSEE

   Tennessee is starting to resemble the Green Bay team on ’07, one that is

   winning games but not getting the respect it deserves from the oddsmakers.

   Still, even those types of clubs fail to cover spreads occasionally, and the

   way with which the Titans are winning games offers up a good matchup

   historically for the Colts. Look at a couple of the trends: INDIANAPOLIS

   is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against

   a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the

   last 3 seasons. The average score was

   INDIANAPOLIS 28.1, OPPONENT 19.1 -

   (Rating = 3*). AND INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1

   ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. good defensive teams

   who give up 17 or less points/game over

   the last 3 seasons. The average score was

   INDIANAPOLIS 27.3, OPPONENT 20.0

   - (Rating = 2*). The Titans have also been

   far from reliable as a home favorite of 3.5-7

   points: 10-22 ATS. If the Colts have any fight

   left in them, they will bring it on Monday night.

   It could be their last chance to save ’08. This

   has the feel of a late field goal win either way.

   I’ll take the points and Peyton Manning.

   Play: Indianapolis +4

   10/26/2008 (227) CINCINNATI at (228) HOUSTON

   I’m not sure, but did I wake up and miss

   the first seven weeks of the NFL season.

   Because when I check the standings, it

   shows Houston as 2-4 with wins of just 1 &

   7 points under its belt while allowing a hair under 30 PPG. This is not the

   type of team capable of being a double-digit favorite, regardless of who it

   is playing. To make matters worse, this ends up being the second straight

   week the Texans were a favorite of 10-points or more, and the inability to

   keep the Lions at bay last Sunday has me convinced this is not a team

   to trust as the big favorite. Like the Lions, winless Cincinnati has hit rock

   bottom, but as this situation shows, it could be the perfect time to take

   advantage: Play On - Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after 7 or more

   consecutive losses, (62-27 since 1983.) (69.7%, +32.3 units. Rating = 3*).

   The Outplay Factor Ratings show that these teams are much closer than

   the double-digit spread indicates: Houston -5.7, Cincy -6.8. This could

   actually be a game where the Bengals show something offensively finally.

   I’ll take my chances and back them here.

   Play: Cincinnati +10

   TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:

   1. BALTIMORE (-7) over OAKLAND 7

   2. PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) over ATLANTA 6.5

   3. NY JETS (-10.5) over KANSAS CITY 6.5

   TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:

   1. WASHINGTON (-8) over DETROIT 10

   2. BALTIMORE (-7) over OAKLAND 10

   3. CINCINNATI (+10) over HOUSTON 7

   TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 8 (ATS & Total)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (215) WASHINGTON vs. (216) DETROIT

   Play On - Home teams (DETROIT) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a terrible team

   (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record.

   The situation’s record this season is: (0-1). L3 Seasons: (7-1). L5 Seasons: (12-3). L10 Seasons: (79-43).

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (203) KANSAS CITY vs. (204) NY JETS

   Play On - Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (KANSAS CITY) - pathetic team - outgained by their opponents by 100 or more

   yards/game, after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games.

   The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (4-2). L10: (13-3).

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (213) ARIZONA vs. (214) CAROLINA

   Play Under - Any team against the total (CAROLINA) - off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two good teams

   (60% to 75%).

   The situation’s record this season is: (1-0). L3 Seasons: (9-3). L10 Seasons: (56-26). Since 1983: (121-99).

   TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 8 (ATS & Total)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (209) ATLANTA vs. (210) PHILADELPHIA

   Andy Reid is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The

   average score was Reid 22.5, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 5*)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (217) CLEVELAND vs. (218) JACKSONVILLE

   CLEVELAND is 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. The average score

   was CLEVELAND 26.8, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 5*)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (217) CLEVELAND vs. (218) JACKSONVILLE

   JACKSONVILLE is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. The

   average score was JACKSONVILLE 30.9, OPPONENT 24 - (Rating = 5*)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (211) ST LOUIS vs. (212) NEW ENGLAND

   Bill Belichick is 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) against NFC West division opponents as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average

   score was Belichick 27.7, OPPONENT 15.6 - (Rating = 5*)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (227) CINCINNATI vs. (228) HOUSTON

   Marvin Lewis is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games as the coach of

   CINCINNATI. The average score was Lewis 22.4, OPPONENT 11.8 - (Rating = 4*)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (213) ARIZONA vs. (214) CAROLINA

   CAROLINA is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The average

   score was CAROLINA 16.7, OPPONENT 16 - (Rating = 4*)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (221) SEATTLE vs. (222) SAN FRANCISCO

   Mike Holmgren is 8-28 ATS (-22.8 Units) in October games as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren

   19.4, OPPONENT 24.5 - (Rating = 4*)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (215) WASHINGTON vs. (216) DETROIT

   WASHINGTON is 31-10 ATS (+20 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.

   The average score was WASHINGTON 24.6, OPPONENT 16 - (Rating = 3*)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (209) ATLANTA vs. (210) PHILADELPHIA

   PHILADELPHIA is 25-7 UNDER (+17.3 Units) in home games in October games since 1992. The average score was

   PHILADELPHIA 20, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 3*)

   TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 8 (ATS & Total)

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (205) BUFFALO VS. (206) MIAMI

   BUFFALO is 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS vs. MIAMI since 2004.

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (209) ATLANTA vs. (210) PHILADELPHIA

   PHILADELPHIA is 6-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in its L9 games vs. ATLANTA.

   Monday, 10/27/2008 (225) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (226) TENNESSEE

   The UNDER is 6-0 in the L6 games between TENNESSEE & INDIANAPOLIS.

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (215) WASHINGTON vs. (216) DETROIT

   The HOME TEAM is 7-1 SU & ATS in WASHINGTON-DETROIT series since ‘92.

   Sunday, 10/26/2008 (215) WASHINGTON vs. (216) DETROIT

   The UNDER is 5-0 in the L6 games between DETROIT & WASHINGTON

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 22 2008 8:49pm
9. 0 likes

   THE SPORTS MEMO

   BRENT CROW

   COLORADO AT MISSOURI -21

   Recommendation: Missouri

   Will this Missouri team fall flat on its face after losing in back-to-back weeks? That is certainly a valid question, but I feel confident that Chase Daniel and the other seniors will prevent that from happening. One thing is certain, if they come to play in this contest, they will have an easy win over a pitiful Colorado team. The Buffaloes managed just 14 points for a third consecutive week against a terrible Kansas State defense. And somehow, they slipped away with a win despite only 106 passing yards. Colorado took the redshirt off of freshman quarterback Tyler Hanson, and he led them on their only two scoring drives, catching K-State by surprise. Colorado was shutout in the second half after that and now the youngster

   makes his road debut behind an offensive line that is banged up, and missing

   key players. Those who are participating are flat out not blocking very well and it has showed. Mizzou got blown out by Texas last week and the offense that was so brilliant in its first five games has struggled the past two. They should get back on track this week against a Colorado defense that allowed over 400 yards to Texas and Kansas. Missouri’s weapons will be too much for the Buffs this week.

   TIM TRUSHEL

   DUKE +10 AT VANDERBILT

   Recommendation: Duke

   Vanderbilt has surprised. During the summer, in these same pages, we called for Vanderbilt to be one of the worst teams in the nation. Without question we were wrong but recently we have seen them falter against Mississippi State and Georgia. Still, they stand at 5-2 and need one win to earn Bowl eligibility. With conference games against Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky plus non-conference games against Duke and Wake Forest, there are several chances for the Commodores. All five of VU’s conference games have been decided by 10 points or less. With a similar caliber of opposition,

   we should see several close games the remainder of the way. In six of Vandy’s seven games this season the underdog has covered. The lone exception was the Rice game, in which the Owls were facing a horrible situation with the aftermath of the events of Hurricane Ike. Still in rebuilding mode, the Blue Devils have held the lead or been within a field goal in the second half of all their losses, they just haven’t been able to close the deal. This week as they face an offense more their speed, we expect a full 60-minute effort. Duke is improved but the overall recent results have tempered the market’s enthusiasm for this squad. We’ll scoop in and grab the inflated number.

   ED CASH

   VIRGINIA TECH +4.5 AT FLORIDA STATE

   Recommendation: Virginia Tech

   Maybe that vaunted Florida State defense isn’t that good after all. It sure didn’t look like it against NC State last Thursday night as the Wolfpack gashed them on the ground and through the air, averaging over seven yards per play. The Seminoles got the win as their offense was able to keep the ball away from the Wolfpack by converting on third downs and running

   80 plays to 47 for NC State. The fact is, the Seminoles have statistically prospered by playing a handful of weak offenses. They won’t face a great one this week either, as Virginia Tech’s one-dimensional offense limps into Tallahassee after losing to Boston College. But in this spot, it isn’t about Tech putting together 400 yards of offense and driving up and down the field. They simply need to do what they did last week: move the ball just enough to keep the FSU defense honest and wait patiently to take advantage

   of any Seminole mistakes (14 turnovers in six games). Assuming the Hokies score a special teams or defensive touchdown or at worst benefit

   from a short field, getting this amount of points is an excellent play

   DONNIE BLACK

   ILLINOIS -1 AT WISCONSIN

   Recommendation: Illinois

   The Badgers once high expectations have come crashing down and the season looks to be in free fall. A once dominant home field advantage has seen two losses in the last month. Since an incredible second half collapse at Michigan, the Badgers having

   dropped three straight conference games and sit at 3-4. The overall offense of this team is quite limited as they have failed to score more than 17 points in four of their last five games. Overall in Big Ten play they are averaging just 16 points per game. The quarterback play has been atrocious as the Badgers have completed

   just 50% with eight interceptions and two touchdowns in Big Ten games. Additionally the once regarded rushing attack has also been pedestrian ranking

   in the bottom half of the league in yards per rush. Defensively they rank dead last in stopping the run in the Big Ten. Illinois should have some success in moving

   the football. While they have played some sloppy games, they have also delivered

   a consistency with their offense. This week they catch a team that may be further hampered with the loss of their running back, PJ Hill. With uncertainty at quarterback and poor performances and efforts on defense, we’ll fade Wisconsin.

   JARED KLEIN

   PENN STATE AT OHIO STATE +1.5

   Recommendation: Ohio State

   There is no question that Penn State has been impressive, but I believe this line is out of whack. Ohio State hasn’t been a home underdog since the 2004-2005 season when they were a four-point underdog against Michigan. The Buckeyes won that game outright 37-21 and I anticipate they’ll do the same in this contest. Ohio State’s SU record (I-AA teams not included) in the Horseshoe is 45-3, 94% since the 2002 campaign. The Buckeyes are also coming off of their most impressive win of the season, blowing out Michigan State, 45-7. “It’s either ours or Penn State’s world and we’ll find out next week,” Buckeyes guard Jim Cordle was quoted as saying. “We like our chances with the momentum we’ve got going into it.” With road games at Purdue, Syracuse and Wisconsin, who has been exposed after an 0-4 Big Ten start, this will be Penn State’s toughest test of the season and while they’ve been very good, they haven’t gone on the road into an environment like this. In my opinion, Ohio State is being discounted way too much and seeing them at home as an underdog is too tempting not take. Penn State’s perfect season ends Saturday

   FAIRWAY JAY

   BOSTON COLLEGE +3 AT NORTH CAROLINA

   Recommendation: Boston College

   Confidence-building win for Boston College last week as they took down Virginia Tech, 28-23, despite five turnovers and two interception returns for touchdowns. Just the opposite for North Carolina, as the Tar Heels blew a late lead and then lost in overtime to Virginia, 16-13. That loss marked the third time in North Carolina’s last four contests that the game was decided in the closing minute. It was the second ACC defeat in which the Tar Heels blew a fourth quarter lead. North Carolina was also outgained in its three previous contests before holding the total yardage advantage over the weak Virginia offense. Now the Tar Heels will face the ACC’s No. 3-ranked offense and No. 2-ranked defense against the run. North Carolina’s offense, and specifically

   the passing game, is significantly less efficient since quarterback TJ Yates went out with injury. And with top wide receiver and kick return specialist Brandon Tate out for the year, the offense struggled even more against a sub-par Virginia defense. Boston College is more confident, healthier

   and the better team right now in an underdog role. Fly with the Eagles.

   MARTY OTTO

   NEVADA -3 AT HAWAII

   Recommendation: NevadaI took a shot last Friday with Boise State, laying 23.5, to cover against this same Hawaii team. Even though it lost, I’ll take my shot with Nevada in this situation. I just don’t buy into this Warriors team; they turn the ball over at an alarming rate, their QB is wildly inaccurate and their option-based, run-n-shoot offense is decidedly high school. While the Wolf Pack aren’t nearly as good defensively as Boise, I don’t think Hawaii has any shot of slowing down their offense. Nevada averages 520 ypg and 40 ppg and is one of the few offenses in the country that can boast over 200 yards rushing and passing per game. Quarterback Colin Kapernick has tallied over 1,900 total yards with a combined 21 TDs (rush/pass), RB Vai Taua has rushed for over 6.4 ypc and has added nine scores, while speedster Marko Mitchell has averaged nearly 19 yards per catch. When it comes right down to it, Hawaii will be forced to trade scores in this one and I don’t think they can keep up. The only team of comparable

   talent to get the best of Nevada this year was New Mexico State. The Aggies are a very good passing team and the Warriors are not. Take Nevada.

   ERIN RYNNING

   RICE AT TULANE -2.5

   Recommendation: Tulane

   An intriguing Conference-USA match-up this Saturday as the Owls make the trek to New Orleans to battle the Green Wave. No question the high-flying Owls with Chase Clement at quarterback can score points in bunches. However, their ability to run the football and play defense will be tested in this matchup. The Owls have proved winning on the road with little defense (480 ypg allowed) and a suspect running game can be a tough task (2-8 SU on the road the last two years). Meanwhile, the more physical Green Wave will enter this game refreshed off their bye week. They’ll have a great opportunity to win this game at the line of scrimmage as they’ve easily outgained four of their six opponents on the ground. They even held their own against the vaunted Alabama front five. The line of scrimmage discrepancy was on display in last year’s meeting when the Green Wave outgained Rice by 244 yards on the ground and won in Houston, 45-31, as a three-point underdog. Rested and ready, look for Tulane to take care of the Owls this weekend in the Superdome.

   TEDDY COVERS

   NEW ORLEANS VS. SAN DIEGO -3.5

   O/U 46.5

   Recommendation: Under

   Last year, when the Giants and Dolphins met at Wembley Stadium in London, the field conditions could not have been worse. Wembley was built for soccer, not professional football. The description of last year’s game was “a mud-caked slog through the unfriendly pitch at torn-up Wembley Stadium.” We should expect more of the same in 2008. If you’ve ever been to London in the Fall, you know already that it rains almost every day. The look-ahead forecast for London on Sunday

   shows a likelihood of rain leaving the field in quagmire condition once again. Yes, the Saints and Chargers both have explosive, high-powered offenses. But let’s not forget they combined to produce just 21 points in good conditions last weekend. And each team’s defense has exceeded expectations in recent weeks as well. After a streak of five consecutive Overs to open the season, the Saints have now gone Under the total in each of the last two weeks, with the Chargers riding

   a three-game Under streak of their own. In a game where staying healthy in ugly conditions is likely to be every bit as important as winning, look for both coaches to utilize conservative game plans, leading to another low scoring affair.

   ROB VENO

   WASHINGTON -7.5 AT DETROIT O/U 44.5

   Recommendation: Washington

   I find it hard to buy into Detroit as an improving squad even after back-to-back spread covers. There has been a 796-538 total yardage and 47-23 first down advantage

   for Lions’ opponents the last few weeks, making final scores and subsequent covers a bit misleading. Last Sunday versus Houston, the Detroit pass defense was absolutely torched as Matt Schaub hit 26-of-31 passes for 267 yards. The run defense

   was no better, allowing 150 yards on 4.4 per carry. The Redskins’ balance with Clinton Portis (now in Pro Bowl-type form) and Jason Campbell’s efficient passing, figures to light up the Lions defense which is yielding an NFL-worst 418.7 total yards per game. Washington’s defense has been the polar opposite as they’ve held four of its six opponents, including potent units New Orleans and Philadelphia. The Redskins have outgained every opponent since their season opener and they’ve committed just five turnovers. Detroit’s youth movement, led by quarterback Dan Orlovsky, is still in a learning and evaluation period while the Redskins have their sights squarely set on the playoffs. Washington has already pocketed straight-up road wins against Dallas and Philadelphia and they’ll add a blowout victory here.

   ERIN RYNNING - STOCK WATCH

   Sell the Kansas State Wildcats - The word discipline was not thrown around loosely during the long and wildly successful tenure of Bill Snyder. Unfortunately, that is no longer the focus and Snyder can’t feel all too happy watching the current Wildcats continually make crucial mistakes week in and week out. First, the defense continues to miss tackles. These miss tackles often times lead to prolonged stretches on the field for the defense and inevitably late game meltdowns . A truly special Snyder

   trademark was a strong special teams unit but this year, they’re missing those game-changing plays that bettors could often times rely on. The missing running game also raises concerns. With solid quarterback Josh Freeman, you’d think holes in the running game would be a common occurrence. In the loss to Colorado, the Wildcats

   lost the rushing battle, 247-112. As a result, KSU has turned into a very one-dimensional operation. Coaching mistakes, including clock management blunders, are becoming a bad habit for head coach Ron Prince and his staff and I have a tough time envisioning

   them being able to get off the mat, especially after last year’s second half meltdown. When Snyder was at the helm, the Wildcats

   were often a spread-covering machine because of heady play. However, it just doesn’t seem that Prince has been able to carry over that philosophy. With Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri on the slate over the next three weeks, things could go from bad to worse.

   Buy the Miami Dolphins - What a difference a year can make in the NFL. The Dolphins’ franchise hit rock bottom last year but this year’s edition actually resembles

   a competitive football team. The common denominator is unquestionably Bill Parcells. You can’t deny his talent for evaluating and stockpiling football talent on the playing and coaching roster. While the talent level of this team still has a long way to go, we can surely see their football IQ and toughness on the field making an impact. Note what is currentlyhappening in Dallas now that Parcells is gone. The glaring

   improvement on Miami’s offensive line is amazing when you consider what they put on the field in years past. The bottom-line and for the first time in many years, the Dolphins actually have organization, discipline and maybe more importantly,

   a real plan of attack. When betting the Dolphins this year it is in some ways like buying very low in the stock market. The pedigree for winning has always been there and with a couple of keys changes it looks as if there is no way to go but up. From looking at Miami’s upcoming schedule, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them post an above .500 record the rest of the way out. But more importantly, the lines should be in our favor. There will be some rough spots but overall,

   I am more than willing to put the buy sign on this team

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 22 2008 8:50pm
10. 0 likes

    Logical Approach's 2008 College & Pro Football Newsletter Issue # 9 covering the games of October 21 - 27, 2008.

    NCAA:

    COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: ARIZONA STATE + 4 over Oregon - Both teams are off of Byes. At 2-4 Arizona State has been disappointing thus far and are on a 4 game losing streak after starting 2-0. They've played the more demanding schedule than has Oregon as reflected in Oregon's opponents' combined 18-29 record while ASU's foes are a combined 28-13. Both teams have played - and lost - on the road to conference power USC. ASU actually compiled the better stats in their loss, being outgained by the Trojans 387-229 in their 28-0 loss while Oregon was outgained 598-239 in their 44-10 loss. State does get starting QB Carpenter back for this game. Coach Erickson's teams have always played exceptionally well at home where they are comfortable being aggressive and playing with swagger and attitude. Oregon's a solid program but the talent level on these teams is about even and does not justify ASU being a home underdog even though Oregon has won the last three meetings. Arizona State wins outright, 27-21.

    Other Featured College Selections

    Mississippi - 4 ½ over ARKANSAS - Former Arkansas coach Nutt has been looking forward to this game ever since his bitter dismissal as Head Hog last season despite years of success with the program. He's had a positive impact at Ole Miss in his first season as the Rebels have improved their level of play and pulled a stunning road upset of Florida. Though just 3-4, they've been competitive in all 4 losses with their largest margin of defeat just 7 points. Arkansas has played better of late for new coach Petrino after playing very poorly earlier. The offense has been inconsistent and the defense has been susceptible to the big play. The major edge for Ole Miss comes in Nutt's knowledge of the Arkansas players as he recruited most of them. Add in the emotion and this has the makings of a beatdown, especially since Arkansas with Nutt as coach has won 4 straight against Mississippi, including 44-8 and 38=3 the past two seasons. Mississippi wins 30-17.

    MISSOURI - 21 ½ over Colorado - Mizzou's dreams of a National Title were dashed when they were upset at home two weeks ago by Oklahoma State. Any chances of a rebound went away when the Tigers were blown out at Texas last week 56-31. Now they return home and drop in class to face a Colorado team that has struggled on offense all season. The Buffaloes have been held to 14 points in 3 of their last 4 games and scored 21 points in a one sided loss to Florida State. Missouri has an outstanding offense behind QB Daniel that should flourish in this situation. Las season Missouri won 55-10 at Colorado as 3 point favorites. Mizzou can still win the Big 12 North and play for the conference title so the motivation to refocus is there. They have the balance to put up big numbers in this game (7.6 yards per play, # 2). Missouri wins big, 49-17.

    OHIO STATE + 2 over Penn State - This game likely decides the Big 10 as both are unbeaten in league play with Penn State 8-0 overall and #3 in the BCS standings. After losing at USC, Ohio State's won 5 straight and is #9 in the BCS, a ranking that would improve with a win here. This game's winner will be favored to win their remaining games and with no Big 10 title game will be in excellent position for a spot in the BCS Title game as other contenders fall to one another. Penn State has not won at Ohio State since joining the Big 10, losing 7 straight by an average score of 28-8. They have yet to score more than 10 points at the Horseshoe. This may be JoePa's best team since joining the Big 10 in 1992 but they have benefitted from a relatively weak schedule. Yes, they did rout Oregon State at home but the overall record of their opponents is just 22-35 (OSU's foes are 20-16). Ohio State is a Home Dog for just the fifth time since 1993. They are 3-1 both SU and ATS. Saturday night under the lights will be Penn State's biggest challenge yet but the OSU defense and continued emergence of versatile QB Pryor will be too much to overcome. Ohio State wins 23-14.

    NFL:

    NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: PHILADELPHIA - 9 over Atlanta - Both teams are off of Byes. Atlanta has been a major surprise thus far with rookie QB Ryan leading the Falcons to a 4-2 record. Philly is just 3-3 but has had to deal with injuries, most notably to RB Westbrook, expected back for this game. The Eagles' aggressive defense should create some problems for the Falcons who have played poorly in 2 of 3 road games when the ground game struggled. The Philly offense, with a healthy Westbrook, is well balanced and potent, especially with QB McNabb healthy. Atlanta may well be a team on the rise but the Eagles are a mature, experienced and well coached team. Their defense will set the tempo for this game and is likely to force mistakes upon which the Philly offense will capitalize. Philadelphia wins 27-13.

    Other Featured NFL Selections :

    DALLAS - 4 over Tampa Bay - The uncertain status of Dallas QB Romo could create volatility in the line during the week but Dallas should ultimately be favored by more than a FG, less than a TD. This is a critical game for the 'Boys as they return from a pair of upset road losses at Arizona and St Louis and have a pair of Divisional road trips on deck at the Giants and Washington. They were clearly unfocused and unprepared last week in St Louis and took a scolding from team owner Jones afterwards. Tampa is off 2 solid home wins but is in a tough spot against a more talented team playing with their season virtually on the line. Even with backup QB Johnson Dallas is poised for their best effort to date. Both teams are in very competitive Divisions and this game could play a part in Playoff tiebreakers. The expectation is that Romo won't go and the line will be closer to a FG. Either way, look for Dallas' defense to come up big and be the key. Dallas wins 26-13.

    JACKSONVILLE - 7 over Cleveland - Jacksonville had started to play well prior to last week's Bye after a sluggish 0-2 start. They''ve won 3 of 4 and appear poised to again contend for the Playoffs. Cleveland was competitive in losing at Washington after their Monday night upset of the Giants. The Browns' defense has actually put up better than expected stats, allowing under 20 points per game. Most of their defensive success has been against the pass (#7) but their run defense has been below average (146 ypg, # 26). Unfortunately their offense has dropped off considerably from last season (256 ypg, #30). Jacksonville is the better overall team and they have a significant edge in the running game which should be decisive here. The Jags have yet to have a breakout game as all 3 wins have been by a TD or less. The Bye allowed them to make adjustments to allow their running game strength to exploit Cleveland's weakness. Jacksonville wins 31-13.

    Cincinnati + 10 over HOUSTON - Both teams were scheduled for Byes this week before Hurricane Ike necessitated a schedule adjustment. Cincinnati is winless (0-7) although they were competitive for most of last week''s game against Pittsburgh, trailing 17-10 after 3 quarters. Houston has won 2 straight after starting 0-4. But the Texans have a poor defense, one that creates few turnovers (just 0.8 per game, # 30). Cincy's struggled on offense with starting QB Palmer sidelined. They are gaining a league low 232 ypg but that should improve as backup QB Fitzpatrick gets more work as starter. Given the success of double digit dogs and the fact that Houston should not be laying such large numbers with their lowly rated defense, the Bengals are ripe to pull the upset, and certainly stay close. Houston is the weakest foe faced to date by the Bengals as they and Cleveland are the only teams Cincy has faced that currently have losing records. Cincinnati wins 23-20.

    Best of the NFL Totals

    Oakland/Baltimore UNDER 35 ½

    Kansas City/N Y Jets UNDER 38

    St Louis/New England OVER 43

    Washington/Detroit UNDER 43 ½

    N Y Giants/Pittsburgh UNDER 43

    Indianapolis/Tennessee UNDER 42 ½

    Money Line Recommendations

    College:

    Rice

    ARIZONA STATE

    Georgia

    HAWAII

    Pro:

    New Orleans

    DALLAS

    N Y Giants

    Cincinnati

    NFL Home Dogs - An Endangered Species???? - Or Maybe Just a Myth ???

    The NFL regular season approaches the midway point with 102 of 256 games having been played. 2008 is unfolding as a season in which favorites and underdogs have performed almost equally, as they did last season but unlike the two seasons before. In 2005 Favorites were dominant, covering nearly 58% of the time (142-104-9). Withing that group, Road Favorites were an astounding 47-29-4 (61.8%) meaning Home Underdogs covered just 38% of the time! In 2006 Favorites were just 106-140-5, 43.1% ATS (Against the Spread). Home Underdogs were a solid 46-32-1 ATS (59.0%). These disparate results have called into question the long held "belief" that the best "value" comes playing Underdogs, especially home underdogs.

    Witness how Home Underdogs have done over the years. Over the past 26 seasons Home Underdogs are 965-889-54 ATS, or 52.05%. That's below the 52.4% needed to break even laying 11 to 10! Since 1982 the best season for Home Underdogs was 1996 when they went 39-25-0 for 60.9%, a profit of 11.5 net units (2002 & 2006 were close behind). The worst was 2005 as Home Pups went 29-47-4 for just 38.2% (previously 1984 had produced the poorest results). Of the past 26 seasons there have been only 7 seasons in which Home Underdogs hit at less than 50% although there have also been 4 seasons in which Home Dogs hit above 50% but below the 'break even' point of 52.4%. There have been 15 seasons in which Home Underdogs turned a profit, but in 8 of them the profit was less than 2.0 net units for the entire season!

    Blindly betting Home Underdogs between 1982 and 2004 would have produced a net profit of just 7.7 units but that entire profit was more than offset by the loss in 2005 of 22.7 net units for a net loss, on a flat bet basis, of 15.0 units over more than 1,700 plays -- hardly the definition of long term success -- or success at all for that matter. 10.8 units were "recovered" in 2006 but most of that was given back in 2007 when Home Underdogs produced a net loss of 8.6 units. Thus there has been an overall NET LOSS of 12.9 units by blindly having bet NFL Home Underdogs over the past 26 seasons! Quite a surprise to nearly everyone.

    As to the "value" of Home Underdogs? It's a matter of semantics or, more accurately, a matter of relativity. Home Underdogs are the best of four "evils" in that relative to Home Favorites, Road Favorites and Road Underdogs betting on Home Underdogs has produced the lowest level of losses over a quarter century. So the next time you hear a handicapper or commentator extol the virtues of the Home Underdog you will be aware that the "bark" is much louder than the "bite" and that while looking for Home Underdogs is indeed a solid approach to handicapping it's not the be all and end all many have proclaimed it to be.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 22 2008 8:51pm
11. 0 likes

    WINNING POINTS -NFL

    NFL BEST BETS: 9-5 (64%)

    ****BEST BET

    Cincinnati over *Houston by 14

    Teams that are winless at this late date often can be overlooked and thus

    dangerous.That’s the scenario with this matchup. Houston has some talent

    at the skill positions and in the defensive line. But the Texans don’t yet

    know how to win or put opponents away. The Texans have never put

    together a three-game winning streak during their seven-year franchise history.

    Houston has won during the past two weeks, but failed to cover

    against either the Dolphins or Lions.They are 1-5 ATS this season. Covering

    spreads this high is being in uncharted waters for Houston.That’s not what

    the Texans are about.Their defensive backfield isn’t nearly strong enough

    to keep opposing offenses in check. Cincinnati continues to play hard for

    Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have played a very tough schedule having

    already drawn Baltimore, Tennessee, New York Giants, Dallas and

    Pittsburgh. Some of their finest efforts have been on the road where they

    took the defending Super Bowl champion Giants to overtime and stayed

    right with Dallas until near the end. Carson Palmer remains out with an

    elbow injury.While that’s depressing, the team has come to grips with the

    fact Palmer may not be back this year. Backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick

    is set to make his third consecutive start. He looked better last week than

    he did two weeks. Expect more improvement this week, especially against

    a much weaker defense than Pittsburgh. Houston entered Week 7 ranked

    31st in scoring defense. The Texans are surrendering an average of 29.8

    points per game. Fitzpatrick has one of the better wide receiving groups in

    the league with Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry.

    Recently acquired Cedric Benson provides the Bengals a better ground

    attack than they had with turnover-prone Chris Perry. CINCINNATI 38-24.

    ***BEST BET

    Buffalo over *Miami by 17

    Both Buffalo and Miami have shown improvement this season. The difference

    is the Bills are a playoff contender, while the Dolphins are in a rebuilding

    stage.The Dolphins don’t have a strong enough offense to beat a good

    defense. They’ve had to resort to gimmicks. Opponents are wise now,

    though, to Miami’s Wildcat packages, which worked so well early in the

    year catching New England and other foes by surprise.The Bills are off to

    their best start in 13 years at 5-1. It’s not a fluke.They are a well-rounded

    team without a real weakness and several strengths, including perhaps the

    best special teams in the league.Trent Edwards has become a reliable quarterback

    in this his second season.The Bills’ offensive line is improving and

    Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch provide dangerous weapons for Edwards.

    Buffalo’s passing attack can hurt a very soft Dolphins’ secondary.The Bills

    also win the battle in the trenches.We’ll take Buffalo’s defensive interior

    against Miami’s offensive line. The Bills also have a strong history against

    Miami.This is a team they know they can beat. Buffalo swept the Dolphins

    twice last year, winning by an average of 12 points.The Dolphins have lost

    in seven of their past eight meetings with the Bills. Buffalo has covered all

    eight times. Bill Parcells has Miami headed in the right direction. It’s just

    easy to temporarily lose sight of far the Dolphins still have to go after last

    year’s 1-15 disaster. Buffalo is banged-up in the secondary. Miami, though,

    doesn’t have the wideouts or vertical passing attack to really take advantage.

    If Ronnie Brown doesn’t come up big, the Dolphins have no offense.

    Brown is a talent, but do expect the well-coached Bills to be fully ready for

    any Miami trickery and Wildcat formations. Buffalo’s offense and superior

    special teams will carry the day. BUFFALO 30-13.

    **PREFERRED

    *Philadelphia over Atlanta by 17

    The Falcons are worse than their 4-2 record, while the Eagles are better

    than they have shown. This matchup will prove it with both teams off a

    bye.Atlanta has won just two of its last 13 road games.Astute veteran Eagles

    defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, one of the best in the business, is going

    to have plenty of complex blitz packages for rookie Atlanta quarterback

    Matt Ryan.The Eagles are averaging two takeaways per game. Philadelphia

    entered last week ranked fifth in total defense. Atlanta relies on bruising

    tailback Michael Turner to set up its passing game. Turner has had some

    monster performances versus weak defenses. But he’s lacked consistency,

    failing to top 60 yards or score a touchdown in half of his games. The

    Falcons rank near the bottom in red-zone touchdowns.The off week could

    allow the Eagles to get healthy. There exists the possibility Donovan

    McNabb gets all his weapons back, including star running back Brian

    Westbrook and wideouts Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis.The Eagles also

    might get a return to health of guard Shawn Andrews. The Falcons can’t

    match the Eagles’ firepower. Atlanta’s defense isn’t capable of shutting

    McNabb down,while its offense is going to have trouble solving the Eagles’

    complicated blitz schemes. PHILADELPHIA 31-14.

    *Baltimore over Oakland by 18

    After this matchup, the Raiders may consider bringing back Lane Kiffin.

    Oakland’s one-dimensional running offense operated by inexperienced

    JaMarcus Russell is no match for the Ravens in Baltimore. The Ravens

    entered Week 7 ranked No. 1 in total defense and also first in run defense.

    This is their first home game in three weeks.They’ve held their first three

    home opponents – Cincinnati, Cleveland and Tennessee – to a combined 33

    points. No team has been able to run on Baltimore. The Ravens haven’t

    yielded an individual 100-yard rusher in 25 consecutive games, the longest

    streak in the league. Baltimore’s defensive weakness is its pass defense. It

    can be exploited by an outstanding quarterback such as Peyton Manning.

    Russell is light years from that class. He’s yet to display any accuracy and

    his receiving corps is among the weakest in the league. Baltimore quarterback

    Joe Flacco also is a developing quarterback.The Ravens have geared

    their offense toward his strengths.Willis McGahee is off his finest game of

    the season. He should be able to run on the Raiders’ less-than-average rush

    defense.The Raiders are traveling from West to East for an early start.West

    Coast teams are 0-7 this season when playing in the Eastern Time Zone and

    27-66 since 2002. BALTIMORE 27-9.

    *CLOSE CALLS

    San Diego over New Orleans by 6 (London)

    These two powerhouse offenses can provide for a jolly good time at

    London’s Wembley Stadium. San Diego is 6-2-1 ATS in his last nine road venues.

    The Chargers flew right off to London following their disappointing

    loss Sunday to Buffalo. Chris Chambers (check status) has missed the past

    two games for the Chargers. Drew Brees got back two of his weapons last

    week, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey. But Brees lost his main rushing

    and receiving target, Reggie Bush. The Saints need to retool their

    offense now. The Giants beat the Dolphins, 13-10, in a mud-filled, rainy

    game at Wembley last year. SAN DIEGO 26-20.

    *New York Jets over Kansas City by 11

    Whatever Herm Edwards is selling, the veterans on Kansas City aren’t buying.

    Star tight end Tony Gonzalez isn’t happy. Larry Johnson (check status)

    could be in more legal trouble and the quarterback situation is a mess with

    underachieving Brodie Croyle out for the season.At least Damon Huard can

    manage an offense – if the Chiefs had anything worth managing. Kansas

    City has dropped 14 of its last 15 games. New York is no bargain either.

    Discount the Arizona victory and Brett Favre hasn’t been anything special.

    The Jets have failed to score 20-plus points in six of their past eight home

    games. NY JETS 17-6.

    *Dallas over Tampa Bay by 4

    Alot depends on the status of Tony Romo and his broken pinkie. Brad

    Johnson does a great impersonation of a statue. Tampa Bay’s long-time

    defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin knows his former QB well. The

    Cowboys would have to use maximum protection vs. Kiffin’s well-designed

    safety and corner blitzes.The Cowboys have failed to cover in five of their

    last six at home. The Bucs don’t have a big passing game, but Dallas’ secondary

    is without suspended cornerback Adam Jones along with injured

    cornerback Terence Newman and safety Roy Williams. DALLAS 24-20.

    *New England over St. Louis by 9

    The Rams are gaining confidence after upset victories against Washington

    and Dallas. New England entered its Monday night matchup with Denver

    just 2-9 ATS in its last 11. The Patriots shouldn’t be overlooking any foe

    without Tom Brady, but they do meet the Colts next week followed by

    three consecutive division matchups. St. Louis has eight takeaways during

    the past two weeks.The Rams need takeaways because their defense can

    be overmatched, although a healthy Leonard Little has shored up the pass

    rush.The combination of Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes being on grass

    and a bad offensive line are huge factors for St. Louis to overcome. NEW

    ENGLAND 26-17.

    *Carolina over Arizona by 7

    It’s difficult to buck the Panthers at home this season. Carolina is 4-0 at

    Bank of America Stadium with an average win of 18.3 points during its last

    three home matchups.Carolina kicker John Kasay has yet to miss in 14 field

    goal tries.The Cardinals are improved, but traditionally struggle away from

    the desert.They have lost 14 straight road games to teams with a winning

    record.Arizona has dropped 58 of its past 74 away contests.The Cardinals

    are 2-0 without injured star playmaker Anquan Boldin (check status).

    Wideout Steve Breaston has filled in well. The Cardinals have had two

    weeks to prepare following last week’s bye. CAROLINA 17-10.

    Washington over *Detroit by 3

    The fumigation has begun in Detroit with Matt Millen fired and quarterback

    Jon Kitna out for the season after committing 63 turnovers during his

    36-game career for the Lions.The Dan Orlovsky era is under way probably

    soon to be followed by the Drew Stanton era.The Lions are lucky this game

    is at Detroit because they are 0-21 in Washington. Detroit truly is terrible.

    Jason Campbell has yet to be picked off this season. But we’re just not comfortable

    laying this many points with the Redskins, especially away from

    home on an off-surface.WASHINGTON 23-20.

    *Jacksonville over Cleveland by 4

    The Jaguars are expected to get back safety Reggie Nelson along with

    offensive linemen Brad Meester and Chris Naeole following last week’s

    bye. The Browns don’t look like much on paper. QB Derek Anderson has

    had only one good performance this season. Cleveland’s defense, however,

    is vastly underrated.They have held four of their six opponents to 14 or

    fewer points. The oddsmaker tends to undervalue Cleveland. The Browns

    have covered in 13 of their last 17 games. Jacksonville has to guard against

    coming out flat and rusty. JACKSONVILLE 21-17.

    New York Giants over *Pittsburgh by 1

    Pittsburgh has won 13 of its last 16 versus NFC opposition. The Steelers,

    though, are banged-up. If tailback Willie Parker (check status) and nose

    guard Casey Hampton (check status) remain unavailable, it could catch up

    to Pittsburgh against what very well could be the best team in the NFC.The

    Giants are anxious to atone for laying an egg against another AFC North

    team, Cleveland, two weeks ago on Monday night. Until that defeat, New

    York was 13-0 SU, 12-1 ATS in its past 13 road contests.The Giants are averaging

    more than five yards per run attempt.They have the pass rush, too,

    to bother Ben Roethlisberger. NY GIANTS 24-23.

    *San Francisco over Seattle by 1

    Seattle held San Francisco to three points and 357 yards in sweeping the

    49ers last year by a combined margin of 47-3. Neither team is very good

    this year. The Seahawks have been done in by wide receiver injuries and

    not having Matt Hasselbeck (check status). This sure isn’t the way Mike

    Holmgren wanted to go out. 49ers coach Mike Nolan doesn’t have the luxury

    of picking his retirement. He may be on the way out if San Francisco

    doesn’t win this game.The 49ers’ defense isn’t very good and their offense

    has turned the ball over 17 times. J.T. O’Sullivan has been sacked 29 times

    and thrown 10 interceptions. SAN FRANCISCO 21-20.

    *Tennessee over Indianapolis by 1 (Monday)

    The Titans are on a franchise-best streak of allowing 17 or fewer points in

    10 straight games.They should be pumped for their first prime time game

    at home since 2004. Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its past seven division road

    contests.The Colts’ offense still isn’t fully in sync and could be missing running

    back Joseph Addai (check status) again. Until losing at Green Bay

    Sunday, though, the Colts had won their past 13 October games.The Titans

    are the only undefeated team left in the NFL, but none of their victories has

    been achieved against a club with a winning record.TENNESSEE 21-20.

    OVER/UNDER

    **OVER: Cincinnati at Houston – Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting more in

    sync with his star receivers, while the Texans have played eight straight

    ‘overs.’

    UNDER: Arizona at Carolina – The Panthers figure to run a lot and

    their defense has allowed just 33 points in four home games.

    UNDER: Kansas City at New York Jets – The Jets can’t figure out how

    to run their offense, while the Chiefs lack an NFL-caliber starting quarterback.

    __________________

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 22 2008 8:52pm
12. 0 likes

    THE SPORTS REPORTER

    BEST BET

    *TENNESSEE over ALABAMA by 6

    Don’t underestimate the importance of this rivalry and what it could do for beleaguered

    Vol coach Phil Fulmer. Alabama’s straight-up, physical style is a good match up for what

    Fulmer has to offer. The Tide’s passing attack only works when the big ugglies are creating

    holes for the backs. Slow that down and you have a shot. Look for the UT coaching

    staff to walk super safety Eric Berry up to the line of scrimmage in run support, putting

    more pressure on QB JP Wilson to make plays. Wilson has not been in a position

    where the game rested on his right arm, and if history teaches us anything, it’s that he

    doesn’t thrive under those conditions. The offense in Knoxville is not great, but it is

    improving. QB Stephens now has two games under his belt and the staff is finding ways

    to get the pigskin to play-makers Gerald Jones and Lennon Creer. 365-pound nose tackle

    Cody is out with an injury, making that 3-4 defense look a lot less scary. Cody is one

    of the biggest difference makers in college football this year and that fact will be highlighted

    further via his absence. TENNESSEE, 23-17.

    BEST BET

    *GEORGIA TECH over VIRGINIA by 24

    ‘I’m Al Groh, from the NFL,’ says the Virginia head coach. ‘I’m Paul Johnson, from College

    Football,’ says the Georgia Tech head coach. Says Groh, ‘We like to do basic stuff, play

    smashmouth football and get physical.’ Says Johnson, ‘We have as many athletes as

    you do, and we like to take basic stuff and tweak it to make it complicated for you to figure

    out, and make it harder for you to be physical against us because you cannot hit what

    you cannot touch.’ Groh to Johnson: ‘You mean you’re not going to play like that bland

    North Carolina offense and you’re planning to force our defensive players to think?’

    Johnson to Groh: ‘Yesh.’ Make Virginia come at you with something better than 3.5 yards

    per carry and 5.4 yards per pass attempt if you’re going to be afraid of them after they’ve

    covered three in a row. Georgia Tech’s defense was allowing a nation’s low 4.4 yards per

    pass attempt prior to Clemson. They haven’t faced a dangerous passing attack all season

    and when this is over, they still will not have faced a dangerous passing attack all

    season. GEORGIA TECH, 34-10.

    BEST BET

    *LOUISVILLE over SOUTH FLORIDA by 7

    South Florida is greatly overrated. You know that already. Their defense does not want to

    be pounded repeatedly by a big offensive line. Louisville strings 306-318-315-296-309

    together up front, representing 40-50-pound differences in the majority of the matchups.

    Behind them is a good combination of power and speed in its running game with

    238-pounder Bolen, and zippy little Victor Anderson. Louisville’s defense isn’t the greatest,

    but first-season defensive coordinator Ron English (from Michigan) has been mixing

    it up well enough to forestall and frustrate opposing offenses to some degree.

    Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ special teams are excelling. South Florida’s pass rush will get

    to Hunter Cantwell a time or three, but Louisville’s rushing push figures to minimize that

    particular opposing defensive strength, while maximizing their own passing game.

    LOUISVILLE, 27-20.

    BEST BET

    VIRGINIA TECH over *FLORIDA STATE by 8

    When last seen under the Fun House lens of national TV Thursday, Florida State’s offense

    was moving like a well-oiled machine in the second half against a depth-shy, tiring and

    slow North Carolina State defense, whose offense was on the field for only 21:44. Today,

    the Seminoles will get fewer chances, against a deeper and more talented defensive unit.

    Good luck to them, for they will need it. When Florida State’s offense cannot run the ball,

    Florida State needs lots o’ luck to compete. Frank Beamer and staff tend to not sprinkle

    opposing teams with magic dust, and Virginia Tech’s defense has allowed only 3.5 yards

    per carry. Florida State’s defense actually has the better rushing numbers. But when you

    see that Colorado has averaged only 14 points per game in three games since facing

    them, and Wake Forest only 9.6 points per game in three games since facing them, you

    tend to want to make a habit of looking deeper than the flat stats for your clues. Hokies’

    QB Tyrod Taylor had one fine day at quarterback vs. the Florida State defense last season,

    and is back looking for more of the same. VIRGINIA TECH, 27-19.

    RECOMMENDED

    *MISSOURI over COLORADO by 30

    Both Okie St. and Texas got the Tigers by the tail with their dynamic offense and fast

    defense. Good news for the Mizzou faithful is that CU possesses neither. Gary Pinkel’s

    offense always puts up yards, but they’ve turned it over more than the norm in two losses.

    The Buffs don’t exactly fly to the football and fare much better against one-dimensional

    offenses (see CSU and Kstate). It is likely that Dan Hawkins will trot out a few different

    QBs, but he is preparing for the future and burned the redshirt of freshman QB

    Tyler Hansen who should see the majority of snaps. The kid is dual-threat, but it’s asking

    a lot for a kid fresh out of high school to direct an offense in this environment – especially

    when operating behind a make shift o-line that’s missing multiple starters. He’ll

    make the Mizzou defense study a little bit, but they’re dropping down from PhD level to

    junior high this week and will ace the test. MISSOURI, 46-16.

    RECOMMENDED

    *CALIFORNIA over UCLA by 26

    The Bruins defense was banged around by physical Stanford RB Gerhart last week and

    now must handle speedster RB Best and his friends. Cal’s QB play has been inconsistent

    so Tedford will reduce their role. UCLA gave up 250 on the ground at home to the Cardinal

    whose offensive front five isn’t as talented as Cal’s. Head Bruin Nueheisel already has

    two conference wins, knows that this one isn’t very winnable, and will shift focus and

    priority to next week’s home game with Oregon St. He doesn’t have much in terms of a

    ground attack and will ask QB Craft to drop back too often for his own good. The kid

    makes mistakes when under pressure and he’ll hear the words of Freddie Mercury in his

    ear all day. Don’t sweat the backdoor cover here, as the Bear third and fourth string

    backs will be sniffing the end zone after the straight up win is in the bag. CAL, 39-13.

    RECOMMENDED

    *BYU over UNLV by 32

    Although our Midweek Update readers took home a Best Bet win, Saturday’s straight up

    loss to Air Force set UNLV on a course that will get bumpier by the minute. Hot seat head

    coach Sanford is staring at another bowl-less season and a probable pink slip. He gets

    a ticked off BYU team looking to gargle and spit the TCU game using UNLV as mouthwash.

    Rebel opponents routinely post 500+ yards of total offense and the Cougars are

    better with the ball than any of those opponents. The sole shot for road dog supporters

    is that the underdog is capable of putting in 3 touchdowns to keep it somewhat

    respectable. BYU, 55-23.

    THE REST:

    THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23

    *WEST VIRGINIA over AUBURN by 8

    Straight-up fans will take the SEC visitor over the Big East host simply because they’ve been

    drinking the spiked public punch served by the media. But the conferences are not playing

    each other. The teams are.West Virginia’s “struggle” at Syracuse was a Pat White-less scrimmage.

    Rest assured (for White), Auburn wasn’t scrimmaging when they lost to a lousy

    Arkansas team. West Virginia’s defense is better than advertised and after they contain the

    run, the different looks from the 3-3-5 figure to confound whichever sub-par, potentially

    coach-killing Auburn quarterback is being asked to throw into it. WEST VIRGINIA, 24-16.

    *AIR FORCE over NEW MEXICO by 11

    The Fly Boys will like their chances to load the box and defend 35-40 runs by 235-pound

    Lobos loads Ferguson and Wright, without being taken hostage vertically by the 47% completion

    rate of QB Guner. Air Force out-gained New Mexico by 1.0 yards per offensive play

    over the course of last season’s game, but made five turnovers and began five turnover-free

    series on their own 19, 19, 24, 34 (with seconds till halftime) and 18, losing 34-31. Good

    lucky to Rocky Long’s D in getting them pinned back that far and frequent again and good

    luck to anyone looking for New Mexico to come anywhere near the 70 points they got vs. the

    dying embers of the Aztec nation. AIR FORCE, 28-17.

    FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24

    BOISE STATE over *SAN JOSE STATE by 4

    Broncos are relying on the arm of a freshman QB to move the ball. Could be a highway to the

    danger zone on the road this week vs. Tomey’s hard-nosed, no-nonsense Spartans. San Jose

    has a good secondary – just ask NMSU QB Holbrook, who threw two pick 6’s last week. If

    the ball bounces the right way, Boise could have its BCS bubble burst. BOISE STATE, 24-20.

    SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25

    *ARMY over LOUISIANA TECH by 4

    Army’s offense will continue its attempt to hone the ’Bone. Tech’s defense is quick enough

    to penetrate, intercept laterals and pitchouts and run the other way with them. But it’s all very

    strange to them and if they guess wrong, and Army doesn’t drop the ball or trip over their

    own feet, then Tech’s defense will spend a lot of time chasing upfield, a direction their own

    offense doesn’t quite grasp. Edge to Army’s defense in the match-up, since while containing

    Tech’s desire to rush-rush-rush the ball, they can stand there, watching and waiting for visiting

    passes to sail out of bounds, land short, or be dropped. ARMY, 24-20.

    *MARYLAND over NORTH CAROLINA STATE by 17

    Slow, depth-shy visiting defense is accompanied by lack of play-makers on the offense. NC

    State wants to aim RB Andre Brown at Maryland’s small defensive front but after Maryland’s

    offense takes advantage of the holes sitting there on the NC State defense, that particular

    option becomes almost irrelevant. MARYLAND, 30-13.

    *MIAMI-FL over WAKE FOREST by 7

    Riley Skinner, Wake QB, is a good decision-maker but his arm isn’t the greatest, and his

    offense’s overall vertical skills not good enough to consistently hit for plays against ACC athletes.

    Wake Forest’s drastically reduced Run Ratio was advertised for you last week going

    into the Maryland game and look what happened to them: 26-0 loss. Aha. If the Demon

    Deacons are not doing 60% to 65% rushing plays, then they are fake Wake! Opponents will

    seize upon that. They already have. Exposure leads to more difficult circumstances. More difficult

    circumstances create obstacles. Obstacles create failures if they cannot be hurdled.

    And, where’s their recently injured punter/placekicker? MIAMI-FL, 20-13.

    NORTHWESTERN over *INDIANA by 12

    Northwestern’s offense enjoys life in the cream puff section of the Big Ten aisle. The security

    guards had advance notice and watched on the closed circuit as the Wilcats scarfed down

    a Purdue pie last Saturday. The camera remains trained on them as they prepare to rifle

    through a package of Hoosiers Hazelnut Butter Cremes. Indiana allows 160 rushing yards per

    game, and now one of the Big Ten’s most productive running backs, Terrell Sutton (5.5 per

    carry, 9.6 per reception), is coming through the aisle to eat their cookies. If Kellen Lewis’ high

    ankle sprain is still bad, leaving Ben Chappel as the only Indiana QB on hand, then Indiana

    cannot go on a shopping spree of their own to offset the damages. NORTHWESTERN, 36-24.

    MINNESOTA over *PURDUE by 3

    The Sporting News – straight-up squares – recently attempted to make a case that Purdue’s

    defense was better than its 185-220 Run-Pass yield numbers in a story headlined: “Purdue

    defensive stats misleading.” "Statistically, it's not a good defense," Purdue defensive tackle

    Ryan Baker said. "In the back of my mind, it's a great defense." Translation: “In your dreams,

    kid.” Too bad for him and the team that the game is not played in the back of his mind.

    Rested and ready value-laden Gophers’ offense (turnovers no more) will spread ‘em and

    spear ‘em. MINNESOTA, 30-27.

    *NORTH CAROLINA over BOSTON COLLEGE by 3

    The Heels are feeling the impact of the loss of their starting QB and play-making WR. Without

    that tandem, Butch Davis asks his tailbacks to shoulder the load and hopes his defense gets

    enough takeaways to win ball games. The formula leads to nail-biting, defensive

    punt/turnover fests won in the final minutes. This game will be no different, with the difference

    in the game being UNC’s ability to force the Eagles into mistakes. BC QB Crane is the

    Adam Dunn of college football – he’s either hitting the big fly or striking out swinging. NORTH

    CAROLINA, 16-13.

    *CONNECTICUT over CINCINNATI by 4

    The Cincinnati offense, down to the #4 quarterback, logged only 60 plays from scrimmage

    in its first Big East game despite numerous 3-and-outs by the opposing Rutgers offense.

    Being forced to abandon normal quick tempo is the biggest unseen problematic offshoot of

    losing experienced starting quarterbacks. If it continues – and why not? -- then the Bearcats

    will be about a dozen offensive plays short of where they were a year ago when upperclassman

    #1 Ben Mauk was directing a snappier offense that had a better chance to wear

    down opposing defenses. UConn, with its own #2 QB, was already planning on playing

    “under” the influence of its own back-up QB’s limitations by handing it to RB Brown 35 times

    a game. It’s a long-field staredown. You saw that final score prediction of 13-10 Rutgers vs.

    UConn last week, vs. a final of 12-10? That’s what knowledge of tempo and available talent

    does for your forecasting abilities. CONNECTICUT, 13-9.

    *WISCONSIN over ILLINOIS by 3

    Badger chasers would’ve had a better chance in the stock market the last four weeks – all

    losses – the last two by an average of 32 points. They’ll move the ball on the Illini – but top

    RBs Hill and Clay may be out with injuries sustained last week. Juice Williams directs an

    offense that hits hard against lightweights, but can they hold up in Madison against a cornered

    animal? Illinois’ best win on the season is transitional Michigan and despite their own

    loss to Rich Rod, Wisky will get back in the “W” column this week. WISCONSIN, 28-25.

    *PITTSBURGH over RUTGERS by 12

    Sneak preview before this featured matinee: Rutgers’ offense to get untracked vs.

    Syracuse’s 430 yards per game defense next game! In the meantime, Pittsburgh’s defense

    is as sound as any in the recent string of Rutgers’ offensive struggles, the irony being that

    our people have made money on Rutgers as they struggle. Compounding the problem in this

    match-up is a Pitt running game that will wear down Rutgers’ small defensive line and help

    set up the kinds of big plays to wideouts that Rutgers wishes their own running game was

    consistent enough to create. PITTSBURGH, 28-16.

    *IOWA STATE over TEXAS A&M by 7

    Both squads will scratch and claw for what might be their only conference win. It’s year two

    for Cyclone coach Chizik, year one for Aggie boss Sherman. The excuses are fewer for the

    former so they’ll put all of their eggs in this basket to avoid a conference shutout. If their

    unathletic athletes can’t contain A&M QB Johnson, it could be a long day for the home crowd.

    IOWA STATE, 24-17.

    *FLORIDA over KENTUCKY by 18

    With the cocktail party on deck, don’t look for Urban Meyer to put QB Tebow in a position to

    get hurt. Tebow was dinged for last year’s UGA game and the effects showed on the scoreboard.

    Meyer can win this home game against the offensively challenged Wildcats with his

    running game, special teams, and defense. Kentucky’s defense was shredded by 5’7 speed

    back Michael Smith for 192 yards last week and Smith is a carbon copy of Florida’s tailbacks.

    FLORIDA, 27-9.

    MISSISSIPPI over *ARKANSAS by 7

    Houston Nutt’s return to Fayetteville will be cordial, but you know that man wants to beat the

    school that made him the villain of a silly soap opera. His offensive line is big, strong, and

    simply better than the Razorback defensive front. Lanes will be there for the Rebel runners,

    which will open up the passing game for developing QB Snead. Bobby P. has one real offensive

    weapon and it shows – TB Michael Smith has 90 carries in the last three games. He’s

    not a big kid, so how long can he carry the team? OLE MISS, 30-23.

    *BALL STATE over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 24

    Ball State’s offense is balanced (195-260), moves chains, doesn’t turn it over, and is good in

    the red zone. Their defense contains well enough and is also known for taking the ball away.

    Eastern Michigan’s defense specializes in being penetrated. Their small-play offense gains a

    lot of yards, mostly because in their rare instances the other team punts, EMU begins offensive

    drives from their own 11-yard-line. BALL STATE, 41-17.

    *VANDERBILT over DUKE by 6

    This marks the first game since week one where Vandy isn’t out-gunned athletically.

    Combine that with great coaching and good discipline, and the result is a hard-fought low

    scoring home win. Coach Bobby Johnson is looking to move onward and upward and taking

    Vanderbilt to their first bowl since the early 80’s looks great on a resume. This would be win

    #6 and they’ll likely be underdogs in their final four. Devils’ offensive strength is the pass,

    which plays to Vandy’s defensive strength. There are a couple NFLers in that secondary that

    will make life tough on the visitors. VANDERBILT, 23-17.

    *TULANE over RICE by 6

    Toledo Bob and his home team had a week off to get ready for a team they beat by 14 points

    on the road last season. Both offenses are converting about 45% on third down. Neither

    defense features brute strength, and Tulane’s sack rate is declining as the season progresses.

    But Tulane’s defensive third down conversion rate of 29% is very interesting, especially

    when you compare it to Rice’s 50% defensive third down conversion rate. Rice’s idea of a

    defensive stop is an interception. When it doesn’t come, they get cooked. TULANE, 34-28.

    FRESNO STATE over *UTAH STATE by 17

    The Bulldogs injury woes from last year have filtered into 2008. The defensive line has lost

    four contributors and will likely go with four underclassmen this week. The bye week helped

    move some from the training room to the locker room. Utah St. excels at giving up rushing

    yards and Fresno runs it with the best of ‘em – averaging 236 yards on the ground per game.

    If Fresno keeps it simple, they’ll put this one away with shear brute force alone. FRESNO

    STATE, 38-21.

    *NAVY over SMU by 17

    Real estate developers are jealous of all the open spaces to be exploited on this grid. SMU is

    throwing the ball on 70% of its offensive plays, and Navy’s kids can only defend vertical

    attacks in match-ups held on water. SMU’s defense allows 5.2 yards per rush attempt – to

    passing teams. Navy runs for 5.7 yards a pop, more than 300 yards per game. The Middies

    might get 400 rushing yards in this match-up. SMU defensive coordinator Tom Mason – whwas Fresno State’s linebackers coach in the pass-happy WAC for the last seven years –picked a bad week to be him as Navy’s option attack produces a string of “what the ___?”

    moments for himself and SMU’s other defensive big cheese Hundley, who last oversaw

    UTEP’s matadors. NAVY, 48-31.

    OREGON over *ARIZONA STATE by 8

    Even since the home loss to UNLV, ASU seems to be going through the motions. There is little

    direction, identity, or energy coming out of Tempe these days. Oregon wants to come in

    and smash ‘em in the mouth early with a powerful RB duo. If the home dog can hang after

    15 minutes, they will hang for the full 60. Coming off of a bye, look for a bit of renewed interest,

    at least until they lose here and re-commence the tent-folding process. OREGON, 28-20.

    *MIAMI-OH over KENT STATE by 4

    Whichever quarterback breaks his pattern of “take snap, screw up,” will help his team more

    than usual. The home defense is good, but has been sabotaged by the offensive unit, a lot.

    Coming off their first MAC win, Miami-OH thinks they’re rolling but they suffered offensive

    injuries last Saturday to a lineman and the starting RB. Kent is rested, ready, has a betterthan-

    rated defense also sabotaged by bad offense, and is just as desperate to snap its own

    MAC 0-fer. MIAMI-OH, 21-17.

    *TEXAS over OKLAHOMA STATE by 11

    Two ATS unbeatens do battle in Austin, the site of the Longhorns’ stampeding of Mizzou last

    Saturday. Texas QB McCoy is the best QB in the country right now and despite a few solid

    defensive showings recently, Oklahoma St. will have trouble getting to McCoy and throwing

    him off his game. The Cowboys do man the most dynamic offense that a young defense has

    seen to date, but nobody is running on Texas and that’s where Okie gets things started. WR

    Dez Bryant is a beast – hauling in 56 passes for over 1K in yards. The #2 WR barely has double

    digit catches, so look for defensive coordinator Muschamp to double Bryant in order to

    make other guys beat him. TEXAS, 34-23.

    *LSU over GEORGIA by 3

    The Tiger offensive line will control the line of scrimmage against a Dawg front seven that

    struggles to get off of blocks. When the safeties cheat up, LSU will hit a few big pass plays

    with speedy wideouts going up against the UGA wide side corners, who routinely get beat.

    Georgia will need to play a disciplined game in hostile territory to win, but they haven’t been

    able to do that in their own house. LSU, 27-24.

    OKLAHOMA over *KANSAS STATE by 21

    OU’s running game will get healthy this week against the defensive sieve that is Kstate. When

    they tire of the ground game, they’ll go to the air – not much resistance there either. The

    Wildcats have a winnable in-state conference game at Kansas next week and won’t look to

    kill themselves here unless the stars align and they are in it come the third quarter. Sooners

    average 52 ppg in two true road games this year and will dance around that number again.

    OKLAHOMA, 45-24.

    *MICHIGAN over MICHIGAN STATE by 1

    “Rich Rodriguez has failed so far at UM,” said the immaterial headline in a recent immaterial

    story by a clown columnist in the Detroit Free-Press. Well, so have 60 other head coaches.

    QB Steven Threet is hurt, but Michigan has shown so many offensive looks and players

    this season that the Sparty smarties will be scratching their heads as they prepare.

    Michigan’s defense drops in class to an offense that actually thought it could keep scoring a

    lot of points with the Stud (Ringer) and the Stiff (Hoyer) as good defenses entered their

    schedule. MICHIGAN, 20-19.

    *NORTHERN ILLINOIS over BOWLING GREEN by 8

    Apparently, Jerry Kill paid extra to keep the mirrors working for now 5-1 ATS Northern Illinois,

    which comes off a pounding of Toledo accomplished despite a quarterback plug-in. NIU’s

    defense is second in the MAC in tackles for losses. NIU’s offense is currently doubling

    Bowling Green’s rushing yards per game. BeeGees QB Tyler Sheehan drops back a lot. This

    is an invitation to some travellin’ trouble for Bowling Green. NORTHERN ILLINOIS, 28-20.

    NEW MEXICO STATE over *IDAHO by 17

    Idaho’s pass defense ranks 110th nationally and they gave up 40+ to offensively challenged

    La Tech last week. NMSU’s offense is much better than Tech’s and this Aggie team is fighting

    for six wins and a potential bowl berth. QB Holbrook can name the score here and his

    improving defensive mates will relish the opportunity to get the better of somebody. NEW

    MEXICO STATE, 41-24.

    *TCU over WYOMING by 29

    Groundhog Day continues for Wyoming, -15 in Turnover Ratio and counting. They’ve had abye week to figure out who will cough it up and when against a defense that actually forces turnovers (+12 TO Ratio). When coach Glenn finally gets the first-season offensive coordinator

    to stop calling the same pass that gets intercepted, and when they tape the ball into the

    quarterback’s hand so that he doesn’t fumble and lose possession on negative-yardage

    sacks, then Wyoming will have the ankle weights lifted and begin playing football, vs. whatever

    it is they call what they’ve been doing. Any day now. People are waiting… while we’re

    young. TCU, 38-9.

    CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *TOLEDO by 7

    Toledo’s starting QB is banged-up, and their defense lost a starting cornerback last week. Not

    the best situation prior to facing a confident opposing offense that you’ll need to be answering,

    probably time and again. CMU can only be confident about having gained more than 500

    yards, and 38 points, against Western Michigan with fifth-year senior QB Brunner stepping

    in for then-injured MAC Player of the Year Dan LeFevour. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 34-27

    *NEBRASKA over BAYLOR by 14

    The Bears are young and it shows on the road. After scoring in the first quarter last week in

    Stillwater, the offense melted down like an Eastern European nuclear plant. Pelini’s Huskers

    are finding their groove and will be motivated to return home and give the faithful something

    to cheer about. Pelini needs to get to 5-3 with this win – ‘cause Oklahoma and Kansas are

    up next. QB Ganz will direct his squad to 40+, meaning that the defense won’t have to be

    great, just good enough. NEBRASKA, 42-28.

    *KANSAS over TEXAS TECH by 4

    Nice setup for the talented Jayhawks – conference game at home vs. a top 10 team. Texas

    Tech’s defense has shown holes the last two weeks and Mangino is ready to exploit further.

    His QB, Todd Reesing, is a tough customer with a knack for making plays. Tech’s offense will

    put points on the board, but expect a much better defensive performance from the home

    boys in Lawrence than what you saw in Norman last week. Good game between equally talented

    teams that comes down to one or two plays. Kansas is good on special teams, so they

    get the nod. KANSAS, 33-29.

    PENN STATE over *OHIO STATE by 6

    As we noted in the pre-season Zone Blitz, Penn State had a good shot at going 12-0. This

    game was the biggest road block then, and it’s the biggest road block now. Fact is, Penn

    State was the better team then, and they’re the better team now. Sure OSU blasted Sparty

    45-7 and that looks sexy. Behind the score was a squad that averaged only 4.2 ypc and

    racked up only 332 total yards. Jim Tressel was his conservative self – running it 52 times

    to only 11 passes. They’ll have to be balanced this week if they are to take out the Big 10’s

    best. He may need to replace QB Pryor with the vet Boeckman to do it. Lions will use a stout

    run defense, QB pressure, and a dynamic offense to stay unbeaten. PENN STATE, 23-17.

    *MEMPHIS over SOUTHERN MISS by 3

    Suddenly, Memphis is definitely without #1 QB Arkelon Hall, possibly without #2 QB Will

    Hudgens. Fine. Southern Miss is still a bunch of fakers making a second straight road trip

    into the home of an opponent with playmakers. When you’re Southern Miss, and you can get

    120 yards in only 17 carries from your #1 running back, and your QB can throw 461 yards

    without a turnover, yet you cannot win or cover the spread, then you have other issues that

    your first-season head coach cannot hide with offensive numbers that the fan base wanted

    and must now live with in frequent defeat. MEMPHIS, 31-28.

    NOTRE DAME over *WASHINGTON by 13

    The Irish found a passing game that works against okay defenses – who cares if is consists

    of only two pass plays. Washington’s defense isn’t just okay, it’s plain bad. QB Claussen

    should enjoy a pain-free day and his WRs will have plenty of open green. The Huskies offense

    didn’t look half-bad last week under the direction of a new QB, but he’ll need to be nearly

    perfect to make up for the shortfalls in the defensive camp. NOTRE DAME, 30-17.

    COLORADO STATE over *SAN DIEGO STATE by 5

    Home coach Chuck Long after hitting a major new low last Saturday: “We have a very fragile

    football team. There's not much confidence in the locker room right now. It's not a pretty

    thing.” But not ugly enough that you’d find a recommendation on Colorado State as a road

    favorite within these pages! COLORADO STATE, 27-22.

    SOUTHERN CAL over *ARIZONA by 17

    If the pre-game bus rocking routine before the Washington State game is an indication of

    where USC is mentally, then Air Zona could be in for a beating. Pete Carroll defenses generally

    swallow one-dimensional offenses like Charlie Weis swallows cheeseburgers. Wildcat

    coach Stoops knows that he needs to be balanced, but they don’t have the horses in the

    backfield or the mentality up front to get it done. In an attempt to get a “signature win,”

    Stoops will ask his QB Tuitama to chuck it early and often. If his QB can survive the onslaught

    of pressure, there is a slim shot at the upset. SOUTHERN CAL, 35-18.

    NEVADA over *HAWAII by 6

    Hawaii’s defense has gotten healthy against statue QB’s the past three games, but they’ll get

    a steady dose of QB Kaepernick and his freakish athleticism this week. The dual-threat QB

    leads an offense that averages over 300 on the ground per contest. Hawaii’s defense is an

    aggressive one that errs on the side of flying to the ball over technique. That’s a dangerous

    situation against a Nevada offense that can turn a crack into the Grand Canyon in a heartbeat.

    NEVADA, 35-29.

    *MISSISSIPPI STATE over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE by 10

    Although some might argue, MSU has more SEC-caliber athletes than MTSU – but the margin

    isn’t as large as it should be. Sylvester Croom’s offense is built to average 4-5 yards per

    carry, so when they hit for 2-3, you get 3rd and 6 ten times per game. Maybe they convert

    two against SEC teams – three or four against the Blue Raiders. Ugly win by bigger, stronger

    players. MISSISSIPPI STATE, 23-13.

    FLORIDA ATLANTIC over *LOUISIANA-MONROE by 4

    FAU’s defense is among the nation’s bottom-dwellers in tackles for losses. The offense has

    been bad in the red zone. Key words, “has been.” Things can change. Monrovian QB Kinsmon

    Lancaster likes to think he can keep opponents flustered, but his offense didn’t start converting

    third downs until North Texas’s alleged defense showed up on their doorstep last

    Saturday. FAU has big receivers, Monrovian DBs are not making the plays they once made,

    and it only takes one or two big plays from Rusty “Medium Play Seeking a Return to Big Play”

    Smith to put ULM into futile chase mode. FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 27-23.

    TROY over *NORTH TEXAS by 21

    Is the anti-North Texas value gone? They finally covered, by 6 points, last Saturday while Troy

    could only straddle the number, as expected, with their new starting QB against offense-less

    Florida International. Quarterback runs have disappeared from Troy’s offense with Hampton

    sidelined for Brown. For North Texas in Monrovia last Saturday, the Vizza Man put the piggie

    in the air 62 times without a pick. Mama mia! He’s due. TROY, 41-20.

    SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26

    *TULSA over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 24

    Todd Graham, head coach of Tulsa, to Gorgeous George O’Leary of the visitor: ‘Say, you guys

    don’t look like the same team that thrashed us in the C-USA Championship Game on your

    home field last season, when you ran the nation’s leading rusher Kevin Smith for 284 yards

    and our defense was posing for Matador crackers. We’d like to kill you for revenge anyway,

    since you still can’t throw the ball. Our people will be very dismayed if we don’t allow the

    disparity between our respective offenses’ total yardage per game, 615 vs. 247, to play out

    on the scoreboard. TULSA, 44-20.

    TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28

    BUFFALO over *OHIO by 1

    Ohio’s offense is a busted play waiting to happen. Buffalo’s defense can make it happen.

    Ohio’s defense is 11 bowling pins waiting to be plowed through by a solid rushing attack.

    Buffalo’s offense can make it happen. BUFFALO, 24-23.

    HOUSTON over *MARSHALL by 10

    Playing at the nation’s quickest tempo helps Houston really wear down opposing defenses in

    the second half. They have out-scored SMU by 17, UAB by 42, ECU by 6, Colorado State by

    15, Air Force by 7 in the second half. The sharpest bettors in America – halftime bettors –

    are loving this team. Full game bettors hate them because they aren’t more efficient early.

    Marshall is the Blundering Herd who managed to log only 58 offensive plays at defense-less

    UAB. HOUSTON, 37-27.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 22 2008 8:53pm
13. 0 likes

    WINNING POINTS -NCAA

    COLLEGE BEST BETS

    11-5 (69%)

    ****BEST BET

    ALABAMA over TENNESSEE* by 24

    Ordinarily a team sitting at #2 in the polls would be feeling pretty good about

    themselves, but that is not going to be the mood in Tuscaloosa this week. After

    looking every bit of a championship team in the first half against Mississippi, Nick

    Saban watched his offense cough and wheeze after intermission, while his defense

    also wore down, largely because the offense could not stay on the field long enough

    to give them a breather. And much of that goes right on the shoulders of Saban,

    who was far too conservative with that lead. So what does it mean here? Not only

    a total mismatch, but the right focus for the favorite to take care of business. For

    not only do the Crimson Tide bring a chip on the shoulder for Saturday’s second

    half, but they only have a home game vs. Arkansas State on deck. That means

    absolutely no holding back here, and if anything a more wide-open attack after

    intermission this time. And the bottom line is that there is not much that Phil

    Fulmer can do about it. Forget the scoreboard result vs. Mississippi State on

    Saturday – it was only 13-3 before back-to-back interception returns for touchdowns

    in the fourth quarter, one of them a fluky deflection on which they were

    more lucky than good. This is an offense that simply does not have the personnel

    or designs to have success against a class S.E.C. defense, and they can be particularly

    beaten right at the point of attack, where the physical Crimson Tide are at

    their best. It was 41-17 Bama in ‘07, and now the gap is wider. ALABAMA 34-10.

    ***BEST BET

    WAKE FOREST over MIAMI F.* by 14

    The reality in this one is far from the perceptions that have to be used by the oddsmakers

    in their process of setting the opener, and since last week’s results lavishly

    fed those perceptions, we get an excellent opportunity to back the superior program

    and the far superior coach in this one. And asking the better team and

    smarter coach to merely win the game to get the money is one of our favorite situations.

    Despite the pedigree that Miami supposedly brought to the A.C.C., even

    with last week’s win at Duke the Hurricanes are only 17-18 in league play, including

    just 6-13 in their last 19 games. The talent base has been in serious decline,

    and we have yet to see any indication that Randy Shannon and the current staff

    have the ability to get the most out of what they have to work with as well. There

    could not be a better indicator than their home performances under Shannon in

    conference play, a wretched 0-6 SU, despite the fact that they were favored in every

    game! Now Shannon not only has to deal with the tactical issues that are present

    when going up against Jim Grobe, but he has to do it without the Hurricanes having

    faced the Deacons since 2005. That means a young defense can fall victim to

    the very tricks that have made Grobe’s offense at Wake so successful through the

    years, and we can expect to see misdirection work at will here. Meanwhile Grobe

    also brings a solid defense to the table, which can contain a Miami offense that has

    yet to find an identity either overland or through the air. WAKE FOREST 28-14.

    COLLEGE FOOTBALL

    **PREFERRED

    Minnesota over Purdue* by 12

    As fans, it is sad to watch Joe Tiller go out this way, after a terrific run in West

    Lafayette. But we can put those sentiments aside just as we did last week, when we

    cashed an easy ticket with Northwestern over Purdue at the top of these pages. The

    bottom line is that at 2-5 we are not going to see a whole lot of spark from the

    Boilermakers the rest of the way, save for perhaps that final home game vs. Indiana,

    and that any time the opposition is going to bring their “A” game against them we

    will step in. Minnesota is certainly in that position here. The gap in energy could

    not be much wider, with the Golden Gophers coming off of a bye to get physically

    fresh, and also knowing that they are just a single win away from clinching a

    bowl bid. Emerging QB Adam Weber and under-rated WR Eric Decker (59 catches

    already, including five for TD’s) can have their way vs. a fading defense that will

    be playing for the eighth straight week, and having already won at Illinois,

    Minnesota brings the proper road confidence level. MINNESOTA 33-21.

    Ball State* over Eastern Michigan by 37

    One of those time-tested “truisms” of is that a tired rush defense will not get fresh

    late in the season. Tired and battered bodies only wear down even more. So on a

    special week in Muncie, with the unbeaten Cardinals playing their first home game

    since in October, the energy will be there to explode against an opponent. And the

    defense of Eastern Michigan may not be able to do anything about it. While the

    host is fresh and playing with a special focus, the Eagles have been gashed for 680

    yards overland the past two games at an ugly 6.7 per carry, and now have to take

    to the field for their ninth straight game without a bye. Considering that three of

    their September opponents also ran for better than 5.0 per carry it was a weak

    defensive front to begin with, but now the tank is empty, and having been eliminated

    from the M.A.C. race, there is little to get excited about, except perhaps for

    next week’s game vs. rival Western Michigan, which means that they might hold

    back on even the limited arsenal they have anyway. BALL STATE 49-12.

    Brigham Young* over U.N.L.V. by 11

    The oddsmakers tend to not downgrade teams that go unbeaten deep into the season

    when off of their first loss, and there is a reason for that – the public tends to

    like to play these teams to bounce-back, especially when in against an opponent

    they can bully. That means that we get to take a more than fair price here, because

    for many of these teams the week after that first loss is a major downer. We believe

    that Brigham Young is a textbook example. The Cougars were put into a position

    to have some serious BCS dreams before heading to T.C.U. last week, but not only

    did they lose, they were physically whipped in a manner that tells them that the

    dreams were never real in the first place. That makes for a sluggish week of practice

    as they re-adjust their sights, and we may not see the major spark return until

    that season-ender vs. Utah. Meanwhile the Rebels are the ideal kind of team to use

    in this role, since they play hard every week, if not necessarily well, and also take

    great care of the football, with only five turnovers all season. B.Y.U. 28-17.

    Oklahoma State over Texas* by 1

    With those two resounding high profile wins the past two weeks these Longhorns

    have absolutely earned the #1 spot in the polls. But what they are also going to be

    saddled with here is a high pointspread, in what might be their most dangerous

    matchup of the season. Now Mack Brown and his team are being asked to reach a

    special peak for the third week in a row, at a time when both fatigue and over-confidence

    are working against that. And as for the opponent, there are no worries on

    that front. We probably could not count the number of times that Mike Gundy,

    his staff, and his players have re-visited last year’s bitter 38-35 loss to Texas in

    Stillwater. They knew that they were good enough to win that night, and the confidence

    gained in their 7-0 opening, which included that solid outing at Missouri,

    has them believing that they are coming to Austin to win, not just hang around.

    With that outstanding offensive balance and a much improved defense, they may

    do just that. OKLAHOMA STATE 28-27

    *CLOSE CALLS

    Temple* over Ohio U. by 2 (Tuesday)

    A rare chance for Al Golden and his Owls to appear in front of the national cameras,

    and viewers are going to enjoy seeing a quick defense that plays with abandon.

    But the offense is another matter entirely, unless Adam DiMichele can return

    for this one. TEMPLE 19-17.

    West Virginia* over Auburn by 2 (Thursday)

    We expect to see Pat White return at QB for the Mountaineers. But could Tommy

    Tuberville have used his down time to get Barrett Trotter into his own QB rotation,

    or does he prefer to protect the red-shirt status? WEST VIRGINIA 22-20.

    Air Force* over New Mexico by 6 (Thursday)

    Rocky Long has seen the Falcon schemes enough through the years to have a

    decent defensive game plan despite the short practice week, but the thought of the

    Lobos having to throw from behind on the road is not an appealing underdog

    sequence. AIR FORCE 22-16.

    Boise State over San Jose State* by 11 (Friday)

    Dick Tomey continues to bring a defensive standard to a conference not accustomed

    to such tactics, and note that in his only home dog outing vs. these Broncos

    he fell by only 23-20 as +13 two seasons ago. BOISE STATE 27-16.

    Louisiana Tech over Army* by 3

    The Army option should become a major nuisance for opponents in the middle of

    their conference schedule, but we do like the way the Bulldogs looked on offense

    with Ross Jenkins as the starting QB. LOUISIANA TECH 27-24.

    Maryland* over N. C. State by 10

    As noted last week, and now updated, five of six Terrapin games have fallen more

    than two touchdowns off of the pointspread, a randomness that we do not like.

    But also note that Wolfpack opponents have had 81 more offensive snaps the last

    three games, a much worse sign than their scoreboards. MARYLAND 27-17.

    Northwestern over Indiana* by 8

    Hoosiers hope to have Kellen Lewis back for this one, but while his athleticism can

    cause problems for the Wildcat defense, there is little that he can do to help the

    Hoosiers own stop unit. Or, in this case, non-stop. NORTHWESTERN 34-26.

    Boston College over North Carolina* by 1

    Both the turnover differential, and the W/L record, got turned around a bit for the

    Tar Heels last week, and it is absolutely related. But is Chris Crane (three more

    picks vs. Virginia Tech; two returned for TD’s) savvy enough yet to handle this

    secondary on the road? BOSTON COLLEGE 20-19.

    Connecticut* over Cincinnati by 1

    The Bearcats were anticipating getting Tony Pike back during their break, which

    matters against this class of defense (Chazz Anderson was not quite as polished as

    his statistics show). CONNECTICUT 20-19.

    Illinois over Wisconsin* by 1

    Not sure that the Badgers can find a second wind after a season that started with

    promise has turned completely around. The Illini beat them despite a -2 turnover

    differential last year, while winning the ground wars 289-127. ILLINOIS 24-23.

    Pittsburgh* over Rutgers by 11

    As the Pittsburgh offense develops more balance, you need to force them into mistakes

    or you get ball-controlled all day. Rutgers has yet to force a single turnover in

    six lined games, a bad omen in that regard. PITTSBURGH 27-16.

    Texas A&M over Iowa State* by 2

    Since we are forced to at least make a lean, our preference goes to an Aggie team

    that has better talent in the skill positions. But this is only with Monopoly money.

    TEXAS A&M 26-24.

    Florida* over Kentucky by 23

    So who was Urban Meyer really practicing for last week, Matthew Stafford and

    Knowshon Moreno of Georgia, or the extremely limited Kentucky offensive huddle?

    FLORIDA 33-10.

    Mississippi over Arkansas* by 4

    The return of Houston Nutt to this venue will add a special spark to the proceedings,

    and off of those outstanding Rebel showings at Florida and Alabama on the

    S.E.C. road, he has the pieces to get a win that he wants in the worst way. MISSISSIPPI

    28-24.

    Vanderbilt* over Duke by 11

    Since the Commodores were not dreaming big dreams when the year started, they

    have a better chance to rebound from their disappointments than a better team

    might. This one really matters if they want to go bowling. VANDERBILT 24-13.

    Tulane* over Rice by 6

    The running of Andre Anderson, a most under-rated force, and the superior

    defense, give the Green Wave a chance to outlast Chase Clement and the Owl

    attack. TULANE 34-28.

    Fresno State over Utah State* by 21

    Few teams were in more need of a bye last week than Pat Hill’s Bulldogs, a combination

    of too much early travel and some key injuries. Now they can get a second

    wind, going into a series of games that they can win to enhance their bowl

    prospects. FRESNO STATE 37-16.

    Navy* over S.M.U. by 14

    Mustangs will have to practice through some heartache after a chance for a breakthrough

    win vs. Houston got away, and that soft rush defense should be worn

    down by that methodical Navy ground game. NAVY 38-24.

    Oregon over Arizona State* by 3

    While both teams had last week off, it was a plus for Oregon to get Justin Roper

    working again at QB, but the Sun Devils may not be able to say the same about

    Rudy Carpenter until later in the week. OREGON 27-24.

    California* over U.C.L.A. by 8

    Norm Chow is managing to get some productivity out of Kevin Craft, and in truth

    for once the Bruins are not a major deficit in the QB position given the rare struggles

    of Jeff Tedford to make that position work for the Bears this season. CALIFORNIA

    27-19.

    Miami O.* over Kent State by 4

    From the “Fun With Numbers” department, we find that Kent is 0-3 in M.A.C.

    play despite leading their opponents in first downs and total offense. Which means

    some value if too much weight is attached to those scoreboards. MIAMI O. 24-20.

    Georgia Tech* over Virginia by 10

    These are not the same Cavaliers that lost at Connecticut and Duke by a combined

    76-13 earlier. But since those were their only road trips, confidence must still be

    considered an issue. GEORGIA TECH 23-13.

    Georgia over L.S.U.* by 3

    Although we are not thrilled by that young Bulldog OL having to stay disciplined

    on snap counts in front of this crowd, and also to pass block the Tigers on the

    edges, if they can hold their own at all we much prefer the Georgia skill people.

    GEORGIA 23-20.

    Oklahoma over Kansas State* by 23

    The Sooners broke our BEST BET hearts by allowing Kansas through the back

    door in the final minute last week, but the 36 first downs and 674 yards they rolled

    up could make this frightening, as they face a much weaker defense. OKLAHOMA

    43-20.

    Michigan State over Michigan* by 7

    That 0-29 run-out at Penn State last week should have removed whatever confidence

    was left for a bruised Wolverine psyche, and Mark Dantonio and the

    Spartans will smell blood in the water after a 24-14 lead in the fourth quarter got

    away last year. MICHIGAN STATE 23-16.

    Florida State* over Virginia Tech by 4

    Although the Hokies are 16-2 SU in their last 18 A.C.C. road games, this current

    edition is far below past standards, and let’s call it an 0-1 run in the wrong direction

    after their loss at Boston College last week. FLORIDA STATE 20-16.

    Northern Illinois* over Bowling Green by 8

    The Huskies have been stifling on defense over the past five games, and with a

    developing ground game also helping to control the clock and field position, they

    look like the kind of team that may only get better down the stretch. NORTHERN

    ILLINOIS 27-19.

    New Mexico State over Idaho* by 15

    We won’t downgrade the Aggies too much for that loss to San Jose, with Hal

    Mumme now 0-4 ATS vs. Dick Tomey, someone who knows how to defend his

    playbook. The Vandals lack the talent or tactics, and this fast surface plays to the

    advantage of the visiting offense. NEW MEXICO STATE 38-23.

    T.C.U.* over Wyoming by 31

    The Cowboys lead the nation in turnovers, and were out-scored by a combined 68-

    0 at New Mexico and Brigham Young in their only road outings. Now they face an

    even better defense. T.C.U. 37-6.

    Central Michigan over Toledo* by 6

    The Chippewas were able to roll for 514 yards in beating Western Michigan without

    Dan LeFevour. Now he returns, and they rang up 52 points vs. the Rockets in

    a 21-point home rout last year. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 33-27.

    South Florida over Louisville* by 7

    The Cardinals have shown an improved ground game against lesser competition

    this season, but now they face an entirely different level of challenge. And note that

    even in what should have been a breeze last week, Hunter Cantwell threw a couple

    of interceptions while playing with the lead. SOUTH FLORIDA 27-20.

    Nebraska* over Baylor by 10

    In games in which the tempo can be slowed a bit, Bo Pelini has a chance to get his

    playbook developed, and that means some wrinkles that Robert Griffin has not

    seen before. NEBRASKA 31-21.

    Kansas* over Texas Tech by 1

    While facing Oklahoma’s no-huddle offense is good tactical preparation for what

    Mike Leach is going to bring, the fact that Kansas just allowed 36 first downs and

    674 yards vs. the Sooners does not indicate that all that much was learned.

    KANSAS 36-35.

    Missouri* over Colorado by 19

    Do the Tigers vent some frustrations here, or has their bubble been damaged

    beyond repair? They did score 55 and throw for 429 at Boulder last year, so

    Colorado does not qualify for what would otherwise be an interesting psychological

    experiment. MISSOURI 41-22.

    Penn State over Ohio State* by 3

    If the game flow is going to be as close as we think this matchup calls for, the more

    versatile offense makes the difference over the course of 60 minutes, with Terrelle

    Pryor not having faced this kind of speed on defense yet. PENN STATE 23-20.

    Southern Miss over Memphis* by 2

    The Tigers lost both Arkelon Hall and Will Hudgens in the first quarter last week,

    shrinking the playbook to a small chapter. Now time to see how the oddsmakers

    adjust. SOUTHERN MISS 22-20.

    Notre Dame over Washington* by 14

    What should be a high drama matchup of Tyrone Willingham facing the Fighting

    Irish is instead another afternoon in which a defense that can not stop the run, the

    pass, or force turnovers (only four takeaways all season) leaves a coaching staff

    without tactical options. NOTRE DAME 34-20.

    Colorado State over San Diego State* by 12

    So far Mountain West teams are having a picnic against that depleted San Diego

    State defensive front, and since the Rams really would like to run the ball with

    Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell, when not opposed by the likes of T.C.U. or Utah,

    they will relish this matchup. COLORADO STATE 32-20.

    Southern Cal over Arizona* by 21

    As difficult as it might seem based on the scoreboard result, Pete Carroll went out

    of his way to not run things up at Washington State last week. Which means that

    there is a lot of pent up energy left over for this one, and a soft Arizona defensive

    front will have a hard time competing. SOUTHERN CAL 35-14.

    Nevada over Hawaii* by 4

    The lack of speed on defense for the Wolfpack has us concerned about this

    matchup on a fast surface, but they can overcome that with their far superior QB

    play. NEVADA 34-30.

    Mississippi State* over Middle Tennessee by 13

    In the midst of an S.E.C. sandwich it is difficult to imagine the Bulldogs bringing

    any special focus. But this is a more physical opponent than the Blue Raiders are

    accustomed to playing, especially this late in the season. MISSISSIPPI ST. 27-14.

    UL-Monroe* over Florida Atlantic by 3

    Rusty Smith continues to fight through a bad left shoulder, and as a result every

    game for the Owls becomes a fight in what has been a disappointing campaign so

    far. UL-MONROE 27-24.

    Troy over North Texas* by 25

    Levi Brown got more than a passing grade in his first start as Trojan QB, and what

    better way to grow in confidence than by facing the worst defense in the land?

    NORTH TEXAS 42-17.

    Tulsa* over Central Florida by 26 (Sunday)

    Through eight quarters of home conference play the Golden Hurricanes have

    scored 140 points. Now they not only have a rare television showcase, but also a

    double-revenge motive against an opponent that they will not back off against. Not

    sure that 15 days off help the Knights in this one. TULSA 50-24.

    Ohio U.* over Buffalo by 1 (Tuesday)

    We were stunned that the Bulls could handle these Bobcats as easily as they did last

    year, 31-10 on the scoreboard and 497-296 in total offense. Maybe Frank Solich

    really did teach Turner Gill everything that he knows. OHIO 24-23.

    Houston over Marshall* by 7 (Tuesday)

    Marshall looked like a rusty team in losing at U.A.B., which is what 15 days off

    can do. Now another long break only makes that lack of cohesion worse, and the

    Cougars have the offensive weapons and designs to exploit a defense that is out of

    step. HOUSTON 33-26.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 22 2008 8:54pm
14. 0 likes

    THE SPORTS REPORTER -NFL

    NFL BEST BETS 72% WINNERS IN ‘08

    BEST BET

    *PHILADELPHIA over ATLANTA by 21

    With the Eagles coming off a bye week, an opponent has finally had some time to take

    a long, hard look at the Falcons, who were 4-2 ATS prior to their own bye. The margins

    of those covers has been on the way down: +16.5, +18.5, +8.5, +4.5. With Philly

    regrouping and getting key players back healthy, the prospect of Atlanta going out and

    dominating the number with a rookie quarterback (video time for Eagles’ DC Jim

    Johnson!) seems unlikely. The Eagles are one of 10 NFL defenses with a sub-60% pass

    completion rate against, and the Falcons are one of 10 NFL offenses completing less

    than 58% of their passes. Atlanta’s offensive turnover rate is the fourth-best in the NFL

    but the Giants’ offense had the best ball-security rate until Cleveland’s defense had two

    weeks to study some stuff and then picked Eli Manning three times. Falcons’ WR Roddy

    White has been getting behind some opposing defenses but he probably won’t get

    behind Eagles’ DB Asante Samuel. Atlanta’s 182 rushing yards per game is nice but Philly

    has good depth on its defensive line and if McNabb and Co. get a lead, Atlanta’s running

    game is in position to vaporize and leave Matt Ryan exposed to a defense with its ears

    pinned back. PHILADELPHIA, 34-13.

    BEST BET

    *PITTSBURGH over NEW YORK GIANTS by 14

    Despite pulling out the home victory against the 49ers in week seven, the Giants have

    not looked crisp in either execution or effort these past two weeks and face a very difficult

    non-conference opponent in the Steelers. With consecutive games against divisional

    foes Dallas and Philadelphia on deck following the trip to the Steel City, Tom Coughlin

    has to be worried about his team’s level of desire and effort this week. Despite a very

    public spat with receiver Plaxico Burress during last week’s game, Burress may be one

    of the few Giants that can be counted on showing up in this trip to his original franchise.

    That being said, the Steelers know how to take Burress out of a game and it is a given

    that the Pittsburgh corners will be manhandling him for 60 full minutes. Despite a leaky

    offensive line that has given up their fair share of sacks, Ben Roethlisberger continues to

    display incredible stubbornness and strength, refusing to go down when draped by

    defenders and not giving up on plays. That type of tenacity will pay off in spades against

    a visiting team whose greatest asset is their pass rush, but features a group of cornerbacks

    that can be exploited. Look for the Steelers to target Aaron Ross, who has proven

    susceptible to double moves and is at an all-time low in confidence. PITTSBURGH 28-14.

    RECOMMENDED

    *NEW YORK JETS over KANSAS CITY by 22

    The downward spiral continues in Kansas City as Brodie Croyle suffered a season ending

    injury last week, in his first game back from injury, and Damon Huard was knocked

    out by an injury in the fourth quarter. Is this the dawn of the Tyler Thigpen era? You have

    to think the Chiefs could do better with just about anybody, including Jeff George, but it’s

    a predicament that ultimately will not matter in light of this team’s utter lack of talent.

    Larry Johnson is also facing another suspension, this team league-mandated, for his

    altercation with a woman at a nightclub. Things could not get much worse. The Jets are

    feeling the blues after blowing the opportunity for road win in Oakland, in a game they

    could have used in light of Buffalo’s performance, but have been served a gift from the

    football gods in the form of a home game against the lowly Chiefs.Watch for the Jets to

    come out throwing early, using Favre’s arm to jump out to an early lead which they will

    milk with the running game against a Kansas City defense that allows an astonishing 182

    yards per game on the ground. NEW YORK 31-9.

    RECOMMENDED

    *HOUSTON over CINCINNATI by 18

    (Originally scheduled for a later date). This is reportedly the way Texans owner Bob

    McNair wanted it in the aftermath of the Hurricane that postponed Houston’s home game

    vs. Baltimore in Week 2. He got his way, and his team gained an edge. Cincinnati was

    forced to switch its bye week from this Sunday to November 9. As it turns out, no NFL

    team needs a bye more desperately right now than 0-7 SU Cincinnati. Bengali Svengali

    Marvin Lewis has been getting competitive efforts in spots from a questionable collection

    of talent, partly due to nice game-planning by new defensive coordinator Mike

    Zimmer (ex-Dallas) against NFC opponents he knew. But the signs of a complete Bengals

    breakdown are there, and that breakdown might have begun in the fourth quarter at

    Pittsburgh last Sunday. Houston is one dog of a football team when it comes to the

    spread, and despite the presence of DE Mario Williams, their pass rush isn’t the

    Pittsburgh pass rush that sacked poor Ryan Fitzpatrick seven times last Sunday. But

    every dog of a team has its day. The Texans can move the football and the frazzled defensive

    brains of Zimmer/Lewis are preparing a tired bunch of losers for the strangest

    opposing offense they’ve seen lately. The teams have not met since before Gary Kubiak

    became head coach of the Texans. HOUSTON, 38-20.

    *BALTIMORE over OAKLAND by 10

    Former offensive line coach Tom Cable notched his first victory at home against Favre and

    the Farce in week seven, but will find out quickly that facing the Ravens on the road is a completely

    different venture. JaMarcus Russell remains a liability at QB, unable to apply touch to

    most passes and lacking rhythm with his receivers. As a result, the Oakland offense runs as

    often as possible to relieve pressure on Russell. That will make it that much easier for the

    Ravens to bottle up any potential yardage gains for the Silver-and-Black. As a unit, the

    Ravens defense allows a mere 66.4 yards per game on the ground and 154.4 yards through

    the air. They should not have many problems meeting those high standards against one of

    the most dysfunctional offensive units in football. On offense, the Ravens will try to keep

    Willis McGahee rolling against a Raiders defense that has allowed 27 points per game,

    including 115 yards per game on the ground. Nnamdi Asomugha’s presence on the outside

    will make it tougher for Flacco Joe to find his favorite target, Derrick Mason, which should

    increase the Ravens’ reliance on the running game. In the end, if Flacco does not implode,

    the game belongs to the Ravens. BALTIMORE 20-10.

    NEW ORLEANS over SAN DIEGO by 2 (at London, England)

    London calling. The Intercontinental Clash of the Inter-Conference Non-Rivals. The Saints

    failed to show up at Carolina despite finally having a full arsenal of offensive weapons. The

    usually reliable Drew Brees could only muster up seven points on the road against Carolina.

    Maybe they were just gearing up and saving up for the personal revenge game of Brees’ life,

    against the team that allowed him to leave via free agency? "I felt like there was one person

    who really just didn't quite believe in me like the rest of them," Brees said this past summer,

    referring to Chargers’ GM A.J. Smith. "That's unfortunate.” Will it be unfortunate for San

    Diego, who just got passed against for 25-of-30 in Buffalo by a second-season opposing

    quarterback? These 3-4 SU teams face off in London, where the weather forecast says 60%

    chance of precipitation. A big problem for the Chargers has been their running game, as

    LaDainian Tomlinson has been clearly hampered by injuries and Norv Turner has refused to

    give a full workload to back-up Darren Sproles. Chris Chambers’ ankle injury and Antonio

    Gates’ nagging injuries have diluted the passing game and the defense’s overall softness has

    hurt the Chargers all season. They have surrendered more points than the much-maligned

    Denver Broncos, and only three fewer points than the Kansas City Chiefs. The Saints will be

    without Reggie Bush for this game following a knee injury, but one more week of practice

    reps should heighten the rhythm between Brees and Marques Colston, who was invisible last

    week in his first game back from injury. If the other injury returnee, TE Shockey, can keep his

    temper in check, the Saints should get it done. NEW ORLEANS 26-24.

    BUFFALO over *MIAMI by 3

    Trickery dickery dock. The Dolphins work the clock. But Pennington is a pet rock and their

    defense is schlock. Trickery dickery dock. Buffalo’s secondary weathered a bad match-up

    against San Diego’s receivers last Sunday, as well as an injury absence by DE Bo Schobel.

    They get an easier draw here. Miami’s offense doesn’t know what it is from week to week

    and pits its identity crisis against a defense that is beginning to make plays when it has to,

    gaining confidence by the week. But the NFL road is a perpetually perplexing path. Trent

    Edwards was almost too good for the Bills last Sunday, completing 25-of-30 passes against

    the Chargers. Beware the Man Who Might Fall to Earth, but don’t confuse that with a ringing

    endorsement of the Dolphins. Some of Penningstone’s worst performance as a Jetson came

    against Buffalo’s defense – when it was injured. However, with the Jets, he had a running

    game that couldn’t break a pane of glass. At the least the Dolphins have a pair of potentially

    damaging running backs. BUFFALO, 23-20.

    *DALLAS over TAMPA BAY by 9

    We have a wounded animal returning to its own lair. The Bucs probably think they’ll be able

    sneak in there and steal Dallas’ dinner. Arrgh. Beware. It didn’t matter to the Cowboys

    whether they lost 34-14 or 15-14 at St. Louis last Sunday. They are back home off two sensational

    defeats on the road, with a 0-0 scoreboard. What exists now is a big Dallas offensive

    line pointed at a small Tampa Bay defensive front whose coordinator rarely calls for

    blitzes, and whose Bucs defense has spent more time between the white lines than most

    other NFL defenses this season. Dallas has RB Marion Barber to help keep it that way and

    will pound Tampa Bay repeatedly in a scoreboard situation that does not figure to spin out of

    control against the Cowboys early. There is also the very veteran QB Brad Johnson playing

    quarterback for the Cowboys against the style of defense that he practiced against every day

    in Tampa Bay for four seasons, and/or contributing what he knows about the Gruden offense

    that he directed during those years. Not at all interested in joining a world that is poised to

    pile on against the Dallas team from all angles when some angles of our own point the other

    way. DALLAS, 26-17.

    *NEW ENGLAND over ST. LOUIS by 11

    The Rams’ very predictable twin-peaks successes vs. Washington and Dallas set them up

    nicely for an immediate regression. Of course those two wins were predictable. One was a

    Best Bet winner in Sports Reporter, the other a Best Best in the Midweek Update. The sparsely-

    attended bandwagon stops between games to pick up the Johnny-come-latelys. But we

    all tiptoe off the bus as the frantic masses push and shove to board it. They expect a juggernaut

    ride with the Rams in the home of a “struggling” Patriots team that is forced to face

    the upstarts off a short week following the Monday Night outing at Denver. But without setup

    plays by the defense, the Rams’ offense can’t put enough points on the board. The

    defense, predictably given the circumstances, made a few key plays in each of the two consecutive

    so-called “upset” wins against two opponents who were in extremely negative situations

    detailed in Sports Reporter and Midweek Update. We’ve been there, done that. The

    Patriots don’t beat themselves and are capable of playing fine defense against the ordinary

    offensive opponent, who was gaining less than 250 yards of total offense per game prior to

    facing Dallas. NEW ENGLAND, 20-9.

    ARIZONA over *CAROLINA by 1

    The Cardinals come off their bye week and are expected to have the services of Anquan

    Boldin as they travel to face the NFC South division-leading Panthers. Boldin’s return will be

    essential to keeping Kurt Warner upright, as the pass rush will be fierce and having three

    dependable receivers on the field will help Warner from getting killed on every three-step

    drop. The Cardinals receivers will prove to be an intriguing match-up against a Carolina secondary

    that has played well all season, but not yet been tested by a healthy elite offense.

    Arizona will struggle to gain consistent yards with Edgerrin James and their offensive output

    will be determined by their passing game. The Panthers will try to run the ball early and often

    against a Cardinals defense that has been surprisingly stout against opposing running

    games. Carolina’s success, or lack thereof, with their running game willl determine how

    much Jake Delhomme throws the ball against what has been an inconsistent Arizona pass

    defense. The Cardinals lack the one shutdown cornerback to match-up against Steve Smith,

    but an extra week of preparation will give Ken Whisenhunt’s coaching staff some wrinkles in

    their gameplan against the shifty wide receiver. Look for a close and hard-hitting game

    replete with turnovers, but ultimately won by the team that has had more preparation. ARIZONA

    24-23.

    WASHINGTON over *DETROIT by 12

    How much longer can the winless streak continue? With Dan Orlovsky at the helm, anything

    is a possibility! The Lions at least made it interesting against Houston, but the outcome was

    never seriously in doubt and it has become obvious that Rod Marinelli, the coach, is not much

    better than Matt Millen, the exiled president. On the other side of the field, Jim Zorn the coach

    is proving to be a big hit with the Redskins faithful. While it is unlikely the ’Skins keep up this

    high level of play all season (look for the next hiccup next week),Washington has shown they

    have the talent to compete with the big boys in their division. Seemingly out of nowhere, the

    ’Skins have the makings of a complete offense, with Clinton Portis playing the role of workhorse

    running back while Santana Moss and Chris Cooley get open inside and outside for the

    suddenly accurate Jason Campbell. After throwing for 22 TDs and 17 INTs at a 58% clip in

    his first two seasons combined, Campbell is completing 64.2% of his passes while throwing

    six TDs and zero INTs. The Lions defense, allowing 32 points and 421 yards per game, should

    not prove to be much impediment against Washington. WASHINGTON 26-14.

    *JACKSONVILLE over CLEVELAND by 4

    Oddly enough, Cleveland’s 3-4 defense has improved the last two weeks, against NFC East

    strangers who were not familiar with the schemin’. The Jags and Browns haven’t met since

    2005, so it may still be useful. However, it probably regresses from those last two efforts.

    Although Cleveland is scoring only 16 points per game this season, the offensive personnel

    is better than that – individually if not collectively. For Jacksonville, Downfield Dirk Koetter’s

    quarterback is being sacked for 19 yards per game this season, nearly twice as many yards

    per game as he was nailed for last season. That must really make first-season defensive

    coordinator Gregg (I Was a Head Coach Once) Williams happy. Not. Cleveland’s improved

    defense might sustain itself as long as big NT Shaun Rogers’ motor holds out, which may not

    be much longer if the Jags used their bye week to get the offensive line back in sync. With

    trouble all over that line, the Jags have averaged only 116 rushing yards per game (vs. an

    AFC-best 153 last season). The 3-3 Jaguars are the only team in the NFL to have all its

    games decided by a touchdown or less. They are a few plays from 6-0, a few plays from 0-

    6, and due for a game – win or lose – with a margin greater than that although this doesn’t

    necessarily have to be that game. JACKSONVILLE, 24-20.

    SEATTLE over *SAN FRANCISCO by 3

    A thumping from soft but sneaky Seattle heading into the bye week could engineer the

    change that gets the 49er faithful’s hearts thumping. Trading in Mike Nolan for…. Mike

    Holmgren? Such changes await the offseason, but it’s beyond obvious to any interested

    observer that the 49ers players have lost faith in both their coaching staff and their quarterback.

    J.T. O’Sullivan may be a good quarterback someday, but in the present he is merely

    the league leader in turnovers with ten INTs and five fumbles lost. Desperation may force

    Nolan to turn to Shaun Hill in what could be his last game as coach of the 49ers, but it will

    make little difference to a team whose season was over the minute Nolan stepped on to the

    field. If Seattle cleans up a few messes between Seneca Wallace and the rest of the offense,

    or they return Hasselbeck behind center, they should be okay for this in-season revenge

    match-up. SEATTLE 24-21.

    MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 27

    *TENNESSEE over INDIANAPOLIS by 5

    Tennessee is due for a letdown. The problem is, when does it come? It’s too easy to assume

    that the Colts will find a way here, and that Titans’ QB Kerry Collins will become the Man Who

    Fell to Earth. But Collins is surrounded by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and one

    of the best defensive lines in the NFL takes the field whenever Tennessee’s offense leaves it.

    Titans’ head coach Jeff Fisher has been banging his head against the wall trying to assemble

    the kind of team that can beat the division rival that has owned everyone else in the AFC

    South for too long. He has had the good offensive line for a while. The defensive line has

    caught up. We’re not going to say that KC stinks and discount what the Titans just did to

    them. No sense knocking an unbeaten team for doing what it was supposed to do. For the

    Colts, losing a non-conference road game (at Green Bay) is not a big deal. They can regroup

    and come out and play much better. They might think that by taking this game seriously –

    unlike the last time the teams met, when it was Tony Dungy’s Tank of the Year regular season

    finale – that they can show up and win. But Tennessee is getting too good a push on both

    sides of the ball. Opposing quarterbacks have a 57.2 QB Rating vs. the Titans. Peyton

    Manning’s current rating of 80.0 is 14 points below his career average. TENNESSEE, 22-17

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 22 2008 8:54pm
15. 0 likes

    Mark Lawrence Playbook

    5* BEST BET

    Boston College over North Carolina by 7

    The Tar Heels return to Chapel Hill off an immensely frustrating loss

    to Virginia at Charlottesville. North Carolina controlled the game

    defensively for 58 minutes but could not prevent Virginia from driving

    82 yards for a tying touchdown in the fi nal two minutes of regulation.

    Then, after regaining the lead with a fi eld goal in overtime, the Cavs

    needed just four plays to punch in the game-winner, dropping UNC to

    1-2 in the ACC race. Wait, it gets worse: Carolina is a woeful 1-9 ATS

    as a single-digit conference home favorite and has covered just once

    in fi ve tries as chalk in the fi rst of BB homers. Boston College makes

    the trip south following an impressive win over Virginia Tech and the

    Eagles bring along a bankroll-building 10-1 ATS mark as road dogs

    of less than 10 points. BC is also just one of fi ve remaining teams to

    own a perfect ‘In The Stats’ record this year – the mirror opposite of

    UNC’s awful 1-5 ITS effort. The clincher is BC’s defense, allowing a mere

    13 PPG this season. That ties nicely into Butch Davis’ dastardly 3-19

    ATS mark as a college head coach in games when he is favored and

    his team fails to score 30 points. As we’ve said before, home favorites

    playing off an OT loss are not our cup of tea, so we’ll be fl ying with the

    Eagles against the downtrodden Heels today

    4* BEST BET

    Florida over Kentucky by 10

    With a week off to bask in the glow of their 51-21 dismemberment of

    LSU, Urban Meyer and his Gators had to be disappointed to see their

    one-loss team land at #10 in the season’s initial BCS rankings released

    on Sunday. And as we all know, the only way for a squad to make

    any headway in the polls these days is to run up the score whenever

    possible while hoping the higher-ups somehow falter. If you think

    this looks like a great opportunity for Florida to give the scoreboard

    a workout, you’d better think again: Kentucky’s rugged defense has

    yielded a season-high of just 24 points, less than the spread on this

    matchup! Still buoyed by their stirring come-from-behind win over

    Arkansas, the Wildcats own all the ATS edges here. Ready? UK has

    consistently cashed in the series, going 5-1 ATS in the last six games

    (3-0 ATS at The Swamp), they’re 6-2 ATS as SEC dogs of 14 > points and

    head coach Rich Brooks stands 8-1 ATS as a double-digit dog when his

    Cats are .500 or greater. Florida doesn’t scare anyone with its feeble

    2-11 ATS record as conference favorites of 14 or more points and

    our powerful database tells us that a team who beat the defending

    National Champs are just 6-21 ATS when facing an opponent that won

    7 or more games the previous season, including 3-18 since 1990! With

    a monster revenger against Georgia waiting in the wings for UF, we’ll

    gladly oblige and grab the hefty points.

    3* BEST BET

    Wake Forest over Miami Florida by 8

    Deacons have not been living the Life of Riley since QB Skinner went

    into the tank three weeks ago by throwing four interceptions and

    losing a fumble in Wake’s surprising home loss to Navy. And even

    though the Deacs rebounded to stop Clemson the following week,

    Skinner stunk it up again (14-of-30 passing) in last Saturday’s puzzling

    defeat at Maryland, Jim Grobe’s fi rst-ever shutout since he arrived in

    Winston-Salem seven-plus seasons ago. Miami awoke from a fi rst half

    slumber in Durham to outscore Duke 35-14 in the second stanza en

    route to a convincing 49-31 that puts the Canes back in the thick of

    the ACC race. But a full-fl edged QB controversy is brewing at Coral

    Gables between mistake-prone starter Robert Marve and Jacory Harris,

    not good news when we take a gander at the Hurricanes’ recent ATS

    results. Miami is just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS as conference favorites under

    Randy Shannon and has failed to cover a single game in eight straight

    tries after winning and covering as road chalk. Wake’s pointspread

    numbers inspire much more confi dence: the Deacs are 6-0 ATS in Game

    Seven of the season and the aforementioned Grobe stands 9-2 SU and

    10-0-1 ATS as a dog of 5 or less points with the Demons. Despite the

    visitors gaining just 219 total yards last week versus the Terps, we’ll

    ride the Wake Forest elevator ‘up’ this week as Skinner returns to form

    by defl ating the Hurricanes.

    5*BEST BET

    Philadelphia over Atlanta by 20

    For multiple reasons, the Eagles picked an opportune time to even

    their record for the season. For openers, head coach Andy Reid

    sparkles in games when playing with rest, going 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS,

    including 5-0 ATS versus a .666 or greater opponent. Better yet, when

    Donovan McNabb is his starting QB and his team is rested, the Eagles

    are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS. In addition, Reid is 6-1 ATS in games when his

    record is dead-even .500 and he’s taking on a foe off a SU and ATS win.

    And speaking of dead-even .500 clubs, teams in Game Seven that are

    playing at home off one-win exact are 12-4 ATS since 1980. While the

    Falcons are an improved unit from last season they have allowed three

    of their last four foes 2nd high season yards. The Eagles, on the other

    hand, have held four foes to season-low yardage. Andy looks dandy

    in this spot today.

    4* BEST BET

    NY Giants over Pittsburgh by 10

    As we approach the halfway mark of the 2008 NFL season, it’s apparent

    there is no clear-cut favorite in either conference. The Chargers, Colts

    and Patriots have struggled, thus vaulting the Steelers and Titans into

    prominence in the AFC. The Cowboys, Eagles and Bucs have all had

    their woes, making the G-Men and Redskins the teams to beat in the

    NFC. Thus, this could be a possible Super Bowl preview. We all know

    the Giants’ affi nity for playing away from home (12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS

    last 13 games). What you don’t know is that defending Super Bowl

    champions shine on the road if not favored when taking on a .833 or

    greater opponent. That’s because these ring-winners are 12-1 ATS in

    this role since 1980! Considering Steeler boss Mike Tomlin is 0-4 ATS

    in games off back-to-back wins if the last game was against a division

    foe, we’ll stand tall with Big Blue.

    3* BEST BET

    Arizona over Carolina by 7

    Both of these teams missed out on the playoffs last season and both

    appear to be in post-season contention as we near the halfway mark

    of this 2008 campaign. The Cardinals were denied a winning record

    last year when the Panthers upended them, 25-10, as 6-point home

    favorites.If that isn’t incentive enough then perhaps Ken Whisenhunt’s

    10-1 ATS career mark in games against opponents off a win of 7 or

    more points should be. On the other side of the ledger, Carolina head

    coach John Fox trots off to the fi nance company as a home favorite

    in games against .666 or greater opposition, going 3-6 SU and 1-7-1

    ATS. That being said, we fully expect the Panthers to drop to 3-15 ATS

    at home against .500 or greater opponents with revenge here today.

    We’re raising Arizona.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 22 2008 8:55pm
16. 0 likes

    Power Sweep

    4* GEORGIA TECH over Virginia - The home tm is 12-1 SU (9-1 ATS) incl LY’s UVA 28-23 upset win. GT is 12-0 SU in HC games and in their 2 lined HG’s TY, GT has outscored their opp 65-7. Both tms have faced Duke as GT shutout the Blue Devils 27-0 while UVA lost 31-3. QB Nesbitt is avg 145 ttl ypg & has 7 TD (5 rush). RB Dwyer has 684 rush yds (6.3). Although GT runs the triple option, WR D Thomas has 22 rec (18.9). LW GT defeated CU 21-17 in an emotional gm for the Tigers just 5 days after HC Bowden stepped down & it gave the Yellow Jackets their 4th straight win. GT has solid edges on both sides of the ball (O #56-90, #23-52 D). LW UVA was held to just 3 pts for about 58 mins before getting a late TD to send the gm to OT, where they upset #18 NC 16-13. QB Verica is avg 169 ypg (65%) with a 3-7 ratio. RB Peerman has 423 rush yds (6.0) and WR Ogletree has 37 rec (12.3). Virginia deserves credit for 3 straight wins but now GT has definite advantages on both sides of the lines and we will grab the value playing against UVA with their recent success. FORECAST: GEORGIA TECH 28 Virginia 6

    3* FLORIDA ST over Virginia Tech - Beamer is 1-7 SU vs Fla St and Bowden is 14-1 SU vs VT but the 1 for each was LY and they’ve combined for over 800 gms as HC. LY the Seminoles led 21-20 into the 4Q before getting outscored 20-0. Fla St lost QB Weatherford in the 2Q and backup QB Lee was susp so they had to go with rFr Ponder getting his first real action ever. Tech has won 7 of 8 league road games with the only loss LW vs BC (28-23) in a game BC held VT to just 240 ttl yds. QB Taylor has avg 172 ttl ypg in the 6 gms he’s played and RB Evans has 442 rush yds (3.. FSU has a solid edge on both sides of the ball (off #28-72, def #19-35). QB Ponder who threw for 254 yds (66%) vs NCSt LW, is avg 209 ttl ypg. RB Smith has 483 rush yds (4.8, 10 TD). VT is struggling and now has to travel to Florida with the ACC’s #11 offense (285 ypg) and now faces the #1 D (248 all’d ypg). FSU also has the #1 offense (419 ypg) vs VT’s #6 D (312). The Florida St off and def are both showing improvement and it will be obvious here. FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 27 Virginia Tech 13

    3* NEBRASKA over Baylor - NU is 6-0 in B12 play vs BU winning by a 48-12 avg and outgaining them by 349 ypg. NU is 12-4 ATS in HC gms and 8-4 ATS when hosting B12 South. Huskers snapped a 3 gm losing streak LW avoiding its 1st 0-3 conf start in 63 yrs taking care of ISU (21-0 HT lead with a 330 yd edge for the gm). Ganz is avg 281 ypg (70%) with a 12-6 ratio. BU is 5-13 ATS in B12 AG and has been outgained in their L/8 (0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS) by 217 ypg incl LW when OSU held them to 204 yds (QB Griffin 174 yds, 85% of offense). Griffin is avg 182 ypg (61%) with a 9-0 ratio & is 65% of the Bears off (1,704 ttl yds). For the 1st time this ssn BU is not catching an opp in a favorable situation & the last time NU faced a mobile QB they all’d VT’s Taylor to gain 258 ttl yds. This will be the Huskers only HG in a month and they have the off edge (#13-66) and have played the far tougher sked (#25-65). FORECAST: NEBRASKA 38 Baylor 17

    2* WISCONSIN over Illinois - LY’s 31-26 win marked Illinois’ 1st win over a Top 5 team S/’89 even though the unranked Illini were actually favored (-2’) at home. UW has won their L4 HC by a 34-12 avg but in ‘06 in Madison, UW (-21’) trailed 21-3 & was fortunate to win 30-24. The Illini are off a 55-13 pounding of Indy (minus QB Lewis) in which they outgained the Hoosiers 563-313. QB WIlliams (278 ypg, 60%, 16-7 ratio, 599 rush yds) leads the B10 in passing, pass eff & ttl off. True frosh RB Ford (PS#32) got 172 yds in his 1st start vs the Hoosiers and at 6-0 220+ he fits the more physical Mendenhall mold. Illini allow 151 rush ypg (4.0). After being voted #2 in the B10’s media preseason poll, the Badgers are in the basement at 0-4 (1st time S/’96) after LW’s 38-16 loss at Iowa in which they trailed just 14-9 in the 3Q before the wheels fell off. QB Sherer got his 1st start but provided little spark hitting 17-34 for 161 with 2 int and Evridge DNP. OL Carimi and Urbik sat out due to inj. Badgers have allowed 179 rush ypg (5.0) in B10 play. The Badgers have the home, D (#40-55) & ST (#47-98) edges and are desperate to turn their season around. FORECAST: WISCONSIN 31 Illinois 24

    2* Smu (+) over NAVY - SMU is 2-4 SU/ATS vs Navy S/‘93. Navy is 3-8 as a HF while SMU 6-3-1 as an AD. June Jones was 2-0 vs AF & Navy (two option service academies) at Hawaii beating AF 52-30 (-9’) in 2001. SMU is making a rare trip to the East coast but does have a bye on deck. SMU QB Mitchell is avg 285 ypg (60%) with a 21-18 ratio, but has improved avg 345 ypg (65%) with a 9-6 ratio the L/3. After losing 3 of their 1st 4 gms by 35 ppg, SMU had a big comeback vs Tulane (lost by 7), outgained UCF 376-280 (lost by 14), led undefeated Tulsa 31-24 in the 4Q (lost by 6) and led Houston 35-23 in the 4Q (lost by 6) showing the team’s improvement under Jones. SMU does lead the NCAA in off int (18), but Navy ranks #112 in our pass D rankings. SMU has already faced Rice (#24 NCAA total off), TT (2), Tulsa (1), and Houston (4) and their D is #117 as a result of such a tough slate of opposing offenses. SMU has allowed 215 rush ypg (5.2). Navy’s offense has been hampered with starting QB Kaheaku-Enhada missing a lot of PT TY with inj and backup Bryant is only avg 38 ypg pass with 392 rush (3.2). SMU is now grasping this new offense and they can exploit Navy’s pass D and an outright upset will not surprise. FORECAST: Smu 37 (+) NAVY 34

    2* NORTH CAROLINA over Boston College - In their last meeting, NC upset #19 BC 16-14 as a 5 pt HD and it was our 2005 College GOY. NC never trailed but settled for 3 short FG’s and led 16-7 with the ball in BC territory with 2:25 left. BC got a garbage TD in the final seconds. LW NC held UVA to just 3 pts for 58 mins but all’d a late TD to send the gm into OT & lost 16-13 extending their losing streak at Scott Stadium to 14. NC was w/o WR Tate (torn ACL, out yr), who led ACC in all-purp yds. LB Carter did get his 4th blk’d kick of the ssn vs UVA. QB Sexton is avg 182 ypg (59%) with a 3-3 ratio. WR Nicks has 39 rec (16.5). Both teams matchup about even on off (NC#52-58), BC has a slight def edge (#28-39) but NC has a solid sp tms edge (#12-108). BC defeated #17 VT 28-23 thanks to their D (only allowed 240 ttl yds) as QB Crane had 4 TO’s (2 ret’d for TD). On the season, Crane is avg 185 ypg (56%) with a 5-9 ratio. True Fr RB Harris has 374 yds (6.4, PS#159). The Heels force alot of TO’s (18) which could spell trouble for Crane. FORECAST: NORTH CAROLINA 30 Boston College 20

    UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

    Michigan +5 1/2 over Mich St

    4* CAROLINA over Arizona - This is the 7th meeting in 8 years with CAR beating ARZ 25-10 as a 5.5 pt AD LY. Both teams were playing their 3rd string QB as CAR brought in Testaverde on Tues & ARZ lost Warner (elbow) in the 1Q. ARZ was up 10-9 mid-4Q when Testaverde hit on a 65 yd TD to Smith (2ptng) to make it 15-10. ARZ was int 3 times in the 4Q which CAR converted into 10 pts for the win. ARZ returns from their bye (4-1 ATS away) but have to travel to an EST site where they are 8-16 ATS (0-2 TY). CAR bounced back from their loss to TB LW holding Brees to just 69 yds passing (56%) in the 1H LW after he strung together 4 straight 300 yds passing. CAR is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS at home TY outgaining foes 349-249 with a 27-8 avg score. ARZ is hoping WR Boldin (sinus fracture) returns. Warner is back to playing at an elite level with 285 ypg (70%) with a 12-5 ratio & he has 4 games with 70%+ completion rates. ARZ runs a very unpredictable blitz heavy defense (#6 sacks) that is high risk/high reward with a 12-3 ratio (6-2 w/o NYJ game) & CAR expects C Kalil & RT Otah back here. ARZ HC Whisenhunt noted that he fully expects his team to win the division after the DAL game. However, passing offenses need 1.5 Qtrs to get back in gear & going cross country vs a CAR team that got its confidence back makes us side with the home team here. FORECAST: CAROLINA 24 Arizona 10

    3* PHILADELPHIA over Atlanta - Both teams come in off their bye week with PHI being 9-3 ATS (inc playoffs) under Reid afterwards while ATL is thrilled to be 4-2 after a last second win vs CHI before it. Inc playoffs, this is the 6th meeting in 7 years with ATL covering the L2. PHI beat ATL 24-17 in the 2006 season finale but failed to cover as a 9 pt HF. This game has PHI’s #9 & #7 units (+5 TO’s) vs ATL’s #8 & #25 units (+2 TO’s). PHI expects RB Westbrook (ribs) to return along with WR’s Brown, Curtis & LG Andrews as well. PHI has outgained foes 343-245 at home TY with a 23-11 avg. ATL has been outgained in all 3 road games 373-291 with Ryan passing for 170 ypg (50%) with a 2-3 ratio. ATL beat a very depleted GB team in their last road game vs a QB playing with a separated shoulder. ATL now faces a PHI defense that is 2nd in the NFL with 21 sacks & allowing just 91 (3.5) ypg rushing. McNabb has been playing at a Pro Bowl level TY despite the injuries around him & with DC Johnson having a rabid home crowd to help his blitz packages vs a talented but young QB makes the Eagles are the play. FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 34 Atlanta 13

    2* Kansas City (+) over NY JETS - Herm Edwards takes on his former team for the 2nd time. LY the Jets beat the Chiefs 13-10 in OT & failed to cover as a 6 pt HF. The Jets moved the ball well with 20-14 FD & 337-219 yd edges but QB Clemens had bruised ribs & the Jets were just trying to wrap up the season. KC lost QB Croyle for the year due to a torn left ACL & may be down to #3 QB Thigpen as Huard left LW with a thumb injury. NYJ are 5-1 ATS as a non-div HF. KC has the #29 & #32 units (+0 TO’s) over the L4W vs NYJ’s #15 & #18 units (-2 TO’s). The Jets have a massive edge with Favre making his 260th start vs a Chiefs defense that has just 3 sacks (32nd), allowing 207 ypg rushing (5.6) which inflates the pass defense ranking (13th). While KC does get RB Johnson back after being deactivated LW minus the DEN game he’s only avg 55 ypg (3.4) & faces a Jets team that is allowing 83 ypg rushing (3.2). KC is tied with GB for the youngest roster in the NFL & Edwards is still teaching them how to play. Aside from the Cardinals game where Warner threw 3 int & Favre had 6 TD passes the Jets have squeaked by MIA & let CIN linger in the game before winning by 12. The Jets have a big road game vs BUF on deck & KC comes in angry after 2 straight bad losses. The generous points makes this the Ugly Dog (22-9 71%) which has earned 5 straight upset wins. FORECAST: Kansas City 20 (+) NY JETS 23

    2* Washington over DETROIT - WAS throttled the Lions 34-3 as a 3.5 pt HF back when DET was a respectable team. WAS forced DET to punt on their first 4 drives & had a 14-0 lead at the half with 15-4 FD & 236-41 yd edges. WAS turned 2 DET TO’s into 10 pts & added a safety. After placing Kitna on IR & trading away one of their best players on the team the Lions found themselves down 21-3 after the 1H but rallied behind Orlovsky for the cover LW. Orlovsky was much better than 2 wks ago (265 yds 48% 1-0) as he used his mobility on bootlegs & rollouts & threw well on the move. The problem is the #32 defense which lacks a strong pass rush (18th) & their #30 pass defense is worse than its ranking with an 11-1 ratio & 9.2 ypa. WAS QB Campbell has been extremely efficient as he avg’s 204 ypg (64%) with an 8-0 ratio & is the only Wk 1 starter without an int. RB Portis leads the NFL in rushing (117 ypg 5.0) & faces a DET team that has been outrushed 168 (4. - 78 (4.3). Expect a wake up call from HC Zorn as the Skins have now lost to STL as a 13 pt HF & let CLE stay in the game being a missed FG away from OT. Don’t be fooled by DET’s B2B covers as both MIN (outgained DET by 180 yds) & HOU (outFD them 29-15) outmanned their team but played down to their level. In the competitive NFC East WAS gets back to taking care of business. FORECAST: Washington 34 DETROIT 20

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 22 2008 8:57pm
17. 0 likes

    DIRECT FROM NEVADA

    WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH

    KEYS TO FINDING "BIG" PLAYS

    Last week I won my Big Ten Game of the Year when Iowa routed Wisconsin 38-16. This weekend I'll be releasing my College Game of the Year for 2008. So, I figured today would be the ideal time to talk about the factors that go into finding those special caliber of releases.

    With my background in oddsmaking, and as a big bettor, you probably think my big plays are keyed by line value. That's true to a degree. But, you really need A LOT of factors to step out on a special game. It's not enough to say "the line is -10 and I think it should be -12" or something. Or, "the public likes the favorite too much and I'm getting a couple of free points." Those are your bread and butter plays. You make a lot of money over time on your bread and butter plays. It takes more than that for this kind of release.

    For a big play, I want to make sure I've got a team that I'm certain will show up with peak intensity. I want their full attention on this game. No distractions. I want to go against an opponent that's either distracted, demoralized, or physically worn down from the season. Line value is important. But, the outside factors need to suggest that I'm going to be on the right side 60-65% of the time. Even more. Not just that -10 is the line and it should be -12...but -10 is the line and the favorite is going to win by more than that most every time they take the field barring turnovers or fluke plays. It's about line value and success percentage.

    Let me discuss some of the reasons I liked Iowa so much last week:

    Iowa was a good team who had finally got things moving in the right direction. After some tough losses where they won stats, they blew out Indiana the prior week. This group was enthusiastic, and ready to make a statement against a big name opponent.

    Iowa also had revenge from a loss the prior season. I'm not a big revenge guy. But, I do think it's a nice "kicker" to have when other edges are in place. The important thing to me was that I knew Iowa wouldn't take their foot off the gas if things were going well. They wouldn't relax too soon and lose their focus. That doesn't happen to good teams in revenge spots. If I'm making a big bet on a team, I want to know they'll be playing for me the full 60 minutes.

    Wisconsin had lost three brutal games in a row. Two were heartbreakers to Michigan and Ohio State. The third was a rout at the hands of Penn State. The Badgers are used to competing for Big Ten championships and major bowl appearances. They're not used to losing three games in a row. I won't say I thought they'd thrown in the towel on the season. But, I knew they were demoralized and lacking confidence.

    Wisconsin was using a quarterback shuffle. That's always a sign of a program that doesn't know what it wants to do. Nobody has confidence in a quarterback shuffle. That means the team was demoralized, AND very unlikely to get things figured out this week. There were a lot of reasons to go against Wisconsin last week no matter who they were playing given the state of the program.

    Line value. Here's where it comes into play. Iowa was pretty inexpensive on a strong home field. The public still didn't respect them because of earlier losses to Pittsburgh and Michigan State. And, the public still thought of Wisconsin as a "name" program. Iowa was just -3.5 or -4 when I released the game. Maybe some full season computer ratings or power ratings would put the number in that vicinity. Given my read of the programs RIGHT NOW, I thought the "right" number was much higher...and that Iowa would cover that low threshold a tremendous percentage of the time. I was happy to see other respected bettors coming in on Iowa during the course of the morning. It was a good sign that sharps were on the same game, and kept betting it even as the line went up.

    When looking for standard plays, your concern is line value. When looking for BIG plays, you want to study all of these other indicators to find blowout potential. You want to bet the motivated team and bet against the distracted or demoralized team. These spots come up time and time again during the football season.

    See if you can find:

    Two ships passing in the night. One team is surging after getting things figured out, while the other is slumping because things are falling apart. I'd bet if you looked hard enough you could find an example of this in almost every betting conference.

    Teams who are wearing down from attrition. This is a huge factor in the final month of the college football season. Some teams throw in the towel because they know it's a wasted season. Others are trying hard, but are just too shorthanded from injuries to compete. You also have some teams who start experimenting with younger talent. They're basically starting their 2009 season early and working out the kinks now. You definitely want to go against those teams because they don't even care about the score. They're just working on getting some of the fundamentals down.

    A crippling loss of confidence. When a team stops believing in its head coach, or in its starting quarterback, they usually never get the fire back. It will take new players coming in during the offseason, or a coaching change to bring the team back to life. This is something that happens in the second half of the season quite a bit. Power ratings and stats won't give this negative due justice. Teams will play much worse than the numbers would suggest once they've stopped drinking the kool-aid.

    Teams who have special reason to play well THIS week. That could be due to revenge, making a statement about the polls, making up for a bad result the prior week. Sometimes a coach gets the players sky high for one huge performance in a given week. A trained handicapping eye can see these spots coming.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 24 2008 4:21pm
18. 0 likes

    Boise State is at San Jose State Friday night on ESPN2. We have a situation where the home team is a 7 point dog, yet they have the best home ATS record the past three years in all of college football, going 11-1 ATS. Since mid 2004, San Jose State is 15-2 SU at home. On the other hand, while Boise State is 11-2 SU on the road the past three years, they are only 4-6 ATS as a road favorite.

    Now this is where this play gets even better. This will be the 4th time in the past 5 years that San Jose State has hosted an unbeaten Nationally ranked opponent. Back in 2004, when San Jose State was just 2-6, they lost in double OT to 8-0 Number 14 Boise State. Oh, BTW, San Jose was a 33 point dog. Two years later in 2006, Boise was 9-0 and Ranked Number 14, when they kicked a winning FG on the last play of the game to win by 3. San Jose covered as a 13 point dog. Last year it was Hawaii who came to San Jose 6-0 and Ranked Number 16. Again San Jose took a ranked team into OT, before losing 42-35. All close games, all cover s for San Jose at home.

    This years San Jose State team is the best they have had in years, 3-0 in the conference and 5-2 overall. The field is green and history says San Jose, after 3 close home games against unbeaten ranked teams, will add to it's 11-1 ATS record at home and will cover the seven point spread. I'm posting this now because I have a feeling the spread may drop below 7 closer to game time.

    SPECIAL SITUATION PLAY NUMBER SIX IS SAN JOSE STATE +7.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 24 2008 4:37pm