Breeder's Cup 10/24 and 10/25
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BIGGEST DAY IN HORSE RACING
Breeder's Cup 10/24 and 10/25
I will be out of town, but I will be handicapping and will try to post.
Beware or be aware that for the first time in 25 years, the BC will
be on a synthetic surface. This will not affect the TURF Races, but
the races on the main track will be different - So be careful.
Wondering if the Dirt Mile will still be called the Dirt Mile - LOL
- DRT
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posted by drtnapper07
11 replies
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0 likes
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World Championships Schedule
Oct. 24 - ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. - 6:30 p.m.
Filly & Mare Sprint 3:35 p.m.
Juvenile Fillies Turf 4:15 p.m.
Juvenile Fillies (Gr.I) 4:55 p.m.
Filly & Mare Turf (Gr.I) 5:35 p.m.
Ladies' Classic (Gr.I) 6:15 p.m.
Oct. 25 - ABC, 1 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. and ESPN, 3:30 p.m. - 7 p.m.
Marathon 1:10 p.m.
Turf Sprint 1:50 p.m.
Dirt Mile 2:30 p.m.
Mile (Gr.I) 3:15 p.m.
Juvenile (Gr.I) 3:55 p.m.
Juvenile Turf 4:35 p.m.
Sprint (Gr.I) 5:15 p.m.
Turf (Gr.I) 6:00 p.m.
Classic (Gr.I) 6:45 p.m.
*Race order subject to change
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posted by drtnapper07
Oct. 20 2008 5:17pm -
0 likes
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Sentient Flight Group
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Total Purse $1,000,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up, Fillies & Mares
7 Furlongs
Friday, October 24, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Magnificience David Flores 20-1
2 Indyanne Robby Albarado 12-1
3 Intangaroo Alonso Quinonez 9-2
4 Lady Sprinter Rene Douglas 15-1
5 Indian Blessing John Velazquez 2-1
6 Zaftig Rafael Bejarano 8-1
7 Dream Rush Kent Desormeaux 20-1
8 Tiz Elemental Joel Rosario 20-1
9 Dearest Trickski Mike Smith 15-1
10 Miraculous Miss Ramon Dominguez 20-1
11 Jazzy (ARG) Alan Garcia 20-1
12 Ventura Garrett Gomez 5-1
13 Tizzy's Tune Alex Solis 30-1
14 La Tee Jon Court 30-1
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Total Purse $1,000,000
Two-Year-Old Fillies
1 Mile (Turf)
Friday, October 24, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 April Pride (GB) David Flores 12-1
2 Laragh Edgar Prado 7-2
3 Maram Jose Lezcano 10-1
4 C Karma Cornelio Velasquez 8-1
5 Emmy Darling Rafael Bejarano 8-1
6 Freedom Rings Alan Garcia 8-1
7 Consequence John Velazquez 8-1
8 Sugar Mom Eibar Coa 10-1
9 Renda Sebastian Madrid 10-1
10 Beyond Our Reach (IRE) Frankie Dettori 15-1
11 Saucey Evening Garrett Gomez 9-2
12 Heart Shaped John Murtagh 15-1
13AE Internallyflawless TBA 8-1
14AE Atka Russell Baze 30-1
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Fillies (Grade I)
Total Purse $2,000,000
Two-Year-Old Fillies
1 1/16 Miles
Friday, October 24, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Evita Argentina Alex Solis 15-1
2 Persistently Alan Garcia 15-1
3 Black Magic Mama Rafael Bejarano 15-1
4 Sky Diva Ramon Dominguez 7-2
5 Be Smart Garrett Gomez 15-1
6 Van Lear Rose Chantal Sutherland 30-1
7 Dave's Revenge Joel Rosario 30-1
8 C. S. Silk Robby Albarado 15-1
9 Palacio de Amor Victor Espinoza 12-1
10 Stardom Bound Mike Smith 2-1
11 Pursuit of Glory (IRE) John Murtagh 8-1
12 Dream Empress Kent Desormeaux 6-1
13 Doremifasollatido Eibar Coa 15-1
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup
Filly & Mare Turf (Grade I)
Total Purse $2,000,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up, Fillies & Mares
1 1/4 Miles (Turf)
Friday, October 24, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Sealy Hill Patrick Husbands 15-1
2 Vacare Jose Valdivia Jr. 10-1
3 Forever Together Julien Leparoux 6-1
4 Visit (GB) Ryan Moore 15-1
5 Wait a While John Velazquez 3-1
6 Dynaforce Alan Garcia 6-1
7 Mauralakana (FR) Kent Desormeaux 5-1
8 Halfway To Heaven (IRE) John Murtagh 4-1
9 Folk Opera (IRE) Frankie Dettori 10-1
10 Pure Clan Edgar Prado 15-1
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (Grade I)
Total Purse $2,000,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up, Fillies & Mares
1 1/8 Miles
Friday, October 24, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Zenyatta Mike Smith 3-5
2 Hystericalady Garrett Gomez 15-1
3 Cocoa Beach (CHI) Ramon Dominguez 8-1
4 Music Note Javier Castellano 6-1
5 Carriage Trail Kent Desormeaux 8-1
6 Ginger Punch Rafael Bejarano 9-2
7 Santa Teresita Michael Baze 50-1
8 Bear Now Eurico Da Silva 30-1
Breeders' Cup Marathon
Total Purse $500,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up
1 1/2 Miles
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Church Service Edgar Prado 10-1
2 Add Heat Alex Solis 20-1
3 Delightful Kiss Calvin Borel 8-1
4 Sixties Icon (GB) Frankie Dettori 2-1
5 Muhannak (IRE) Patrick Smullen 20-1
6 Zappa Garrett Gomez 5-2
7 Big Booster Rafael Bejarano 9-2
8 Cedar Mountain (IRE) Javier Castellano 6-1
9 Booyah Joe Talamo 30-1
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
Total Purse $1,000,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up
About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Heros Reward Javier Castellano 8-1
2 Fleeting Spirit (IRE) John Murtagh 5-1
3 True to Tradition Kendrick Carmouche 15-1
4 Only Answer (GB) Olivier Peslier 20-1
5 Salute the Count Eibar Coa 12-1
6 Storm Treasure Shaun Bridgmohan 12-1
7 Rouse the Cat Edgar Prado 20-1
8 Diabolical Frankie Dettori 6-1
9 Desert Code Richard Migliore 30-1
10 California Flag Joe Talamo 15-1
11 Idiot Proof Garrett Gomez 8-1
12 One Union Victor Espinoza 15-1
13 Get Funky Jose Valdivia Jr. 9-2
14 Mr. Nightlinger Jamie Theriot 6-1
TVG Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Total Purse $1,000,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up
1 Mile
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Lewis Michael Eibar Coa 5-1
2 Surf Cat David Flores 6-1
3 Slew's Tizzy Joel Rosario 20-1
4 Mast Track Tyler Baze 6-1
5 Two Step Salsa Martin Pedroza 15-1
6 Pyro Shaun Bridgmohan 20-1
7 Albertus Maximus Garrett Gomez 4-1
8 Well Armed Aaron Gryder 3-1
9 Slew's Tiznow Rafael Bejarano 15-1
10 Rebellion (GB) Edgar Prado 15-1
11 My Pal Charlie Victor Espinoza 20-1
12 Lord Admiral John Murtagh 20-1
Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade I)
Total Purse $2,000,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up
1 Mile (Turf)
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Shakis (IRE) Alan Garcia 10-1
2 Kip Deville Cornelio Velasquez 5-1
3 Precious Kitten Rafael Bejarano 8-1
4 Goldikova (IRE) Olivier Peslier 3-1
5 Daytona (IRE) Alex Solis 6-1
6 Awesome Gem Tyler Baze 20-1
7 U S Ranger John Murtagh 15-1
8 Bold Chieftain Russell Baze 15-1
9 War Monger Kent Desormeaux 12-1
10 Thorn Song Robby Albarado 12-1
11 Whatsthescript (IRE) Garrett Gomez 4-1
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade I)
Total Purse $2,000,000
Two-Year-Olds, Colts & Geldings
1 1/16 Miles
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Munnings John Velazquez 7-2
2 Gallant Son Leslie Mawing 15-1
3 Terrain Jamie Theriot 20-1
4 Square Eddie Rafael Bejarano 9-2
5 Azul Leon Joel Rosario 20-1
6 Silent Valor Edgar Prado 15-1
7 Elusive Bluff Michael Baze 15-1
8 Street Hero Alex Solis 6-1
9 Mine That Bird Chantal Sutherland 30-1
10 Pioneerof the Nile Robby Albarado 15-1
11 Midshipman Garrett Gomez 5-1
12 Bushranger (IRE) John Murtagh 6-1
13 West Side Bernie Stewart Elliott 20-1
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Turf
Total Purse $1,000,000
Two-Year-Olds, Colts & Geldings
1 Mile (Turf)
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Ninth Client Julien Leparoux 15-1
2 City Style Tony McNeil 20-1
3 Westphalia (IRE) John Murtagh 5-1
4 Donativum (GB) Frankie Dettori 6-1
5 Relatively Ready Cornelio Velasquez 12-1
6 Vaquero Kent Desormeaux 20-1
7 Coronet of a Baron Alan Garcia 9-2
8 Paddy The Pro (IRE) Garrett Gomez 15-1
9 Orthodox Jon Court 20-1
10 Skipadate Shaun Bridgmohan 6-1
11 Bittel Road John Velazquez 7-2
12 Grand Adventure Rafael Bejarano 5-1
13AE Mark S the Cooler Frankie Dettori 20-1
Sentient Flight Group
Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade I)
Total Purse $2,000,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up
6 Furlongs
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Cost of Freedom Tyler Baze 4-1
2 Street Boss David Flores 3-1
3 Fabulous Strike Ramon Dominguez 4-1
4 Midnight Lute Garrett Gomez 7-2
5 First Defence Javier Castellano 12-1
6 Black Seventeen Clinton Potts 15-1
7 In Summation John Velazquez 10-1
8 Sing Baby Sing Justin Shepard 30-1
9 Fatal Bullet Eurico Da Silva 6-1
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade I)
Total Purse $3,000,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up
1 1/2 Miles (Turf)
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Better Talk Now Ramon Dominguez 10-1
2 Red Rocks (IRE) Frankie Dettori 5-1
3 Grand Couturier (GB) Alan Garcia 6-1
4 Soldier of Fortune (IRE) John Murtagh 7-2
5 Winchester Patrick Smullen 15-1
6 Dancing Forever Rene Douglas 10-1
7 Red Rock Canyon (IRE) Colm O'Donoghue 30-1
8 Spring House John Velazquez 10-1
9 Conduit (IRE) Ryan Moore 6-1
10 Out of Control (BRZ) Garrett Gomez 10-1
11 Eagle Mountain (GB) Kevin Shea 6-1
Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade I)
Total Purse $5,000,000
Three-Year-Olds and Up
1 1/4 Miles
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 Go Between Garrett Gomez 8-1
2 Casino Drive Victor Espinoza 10-1
3 Tiago Mike Smith 15-1
4 Duke of Marmalade (IRE) John Murtagh 10-1
5 Henrythenavigator John Velazquez 10-1
6 Smooth Air Manoel Cruz 50-1
7 Student Council Shaun Bridgmohan 20-1
8 Raven's Pass Frankie Dettori 6-1
9 Curlin Robby Albarado 7-5
10 Fairbanks Richard Migliore 10-1
11 Colonel John Edgar Prado 20-1
12 Champs Elysees (GB) Alan Garcia 15-1
posted by drtnapper07
Oct. 21 2008 7:49pm -
0 likes
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Guys - Here are some picks where the capper is somewhat
anti-chalk and is on the look-out for "sneaky horses and value",
but plays the chalks when warranted -
ANTI-CHALK PICKS By Eric Wing, NTRA
BC Analysis for all 14 Races (Looking for sneaky horses and leaving the chalks out when possible)
FRIDAY'S CARD
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Dearest Trickski 15-1
Ventura 5-1
Intangaroo 9-2
Chalk left out - Indian Blessing 2-1
This is one of the new BC races that I think has already arrived. It is directly tied to an Eclipse championship, and it has again drawn an intriguing, well-matched field. Most people seem to be saying that this race will have a suicidal pace duel up front, and all the front runners will get knocked out. I’ll go against the grain and take a shot with DEAREST TRICKSKI, who is 6-for-8 on synthetic and has won each of the last seven times she has made the early lead. She’s two-for-two at 7F, and given what her price will be on Friday, I’ll pay to see if I’m wrong. She will face pressure early from Dream Rush and Lady Sprinter, but I’m hoping she has more quality than those two. I expect Indian Blessing and Indyanne (who’s not as quick early as her PPs may indicate) to avoid a duel and sit off the pace. This plays in to Dearest Trickski’s favor. I’ll go with the closers VENTURA and INTANGAROO to pick up the pieces for second and third. Both are synthetic tested and have lots of quality. My bomber is another hometowner, TIZZY’S TUNE, who I think will move forward second off a layoff and stretching out to 7F.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Beyond Our Reach 15-1
Heart Shaped 15-1
Maram 10-1
Chalk left out - Laragh 7-2
On the face of it, these Juvenile turf races confuse me, and I find myself resorting to even more guesswork than usual. Here I will be taking a stab with the maiden BEYOND OUR REACH who was second, beaten three lengths behind repeat stakes winner Again in the Group I Moyglare Stud Stakes. Friday’s race could actually represent class relief for her. HEART SHAPED finished in front of Beyond Our Reach last time out in the Group I Cheveley Park Stakes, but she has chronic problems breaking from the gate, which could prove even more costly here on this side of the pond. It remains to be seen whether MARAM is world-class, but you can’t fault her perfect two-for-two record.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Stardom Bound 2-1 (Chalk)
C.S. Silk 15-1
Dream Empress 6-1
Best Chalk left out - Sky Diva 7-2
I’m not going to bet this race hard, nor am I going to get too clever. STARDOM BOUND looked super in her last two, both on synthetic, both in California, both against big fields. In here, and in many of the other races for that matter, I’m going to let dirt winners like Sky Diva and Persistently beat me. For second, I’ll go with C.S. SILK who ran away and hid last time in the Arlington Washington Lassie. She is the one Stardom Bound will have to run down in the lane. I’ll also use DREAM EMPRESS underneath. She was bet off the board last time in the Alcibiades as if the connections knew they had a polyfreak on their hands.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Wait a While 3-1 (Chalk)
Vacare 10-1
Mauralakana 5-1
Best Chalk left out - Halfway To Heaven (IRE) 4-1
As good as WAIT A WHILE as been throughout her career, she has always seemed to save her best races for the Santa Anita sod. She should get her preferred stalking trip again behind Folk Opera and Halfway to Heaven. Somewhat amazingly, VACARE tried 10 furlongs for the first time last time out in the Yellow Ribbon and it was her best race all year. She may have found her niche late in life and can make things interesting. MAURALAKANA has been a gem of consistency for trainer Christophe Clement, who also trains Vacare. Last time out a soft course and a premature move by Kent Desormeaux conspired against her. A more patient ride and a firm course will keep her in the thick of this.
Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic
Carriage Trail 8-1
Zenyatta 3-5 (Chalk)
Cocoa Beach 8-1
Best Chalk left out - Ginger Punch 9-2
Look up synthetic freak in the dictionary and you will see a picture of CARRIAGE TRAIL. She is okay on dirt and a nice enough horse on turf, but she is in another league over synthetic. The first time she won over the stuff, she had no business winning, looking hopelessly beaten, and she still got up. She went on to take a Grade III later on the fake dirt, and last time my suspicions about her were even more fully confirmed when she ran out of her skin, beating Model by 7 ¾ lengths in the Spinster. Model is no slouch, having run Zenyatta to a one-length decision at Del Mar. At 7-2 or so, she is a no-brainer for me against Zenyatta who may be odds on. ZENYATTA could win this obviously. Such is usually the case with undefeated horses. But I don’t think she is a good gamble vis-à -vis Carriage Trail, and if you want to get picky, her lone 9-furlong race was the “least impressive†looking win of her career. COCOA BEACH was bet hard in the Beldame, going off at a much shorter price than Lemon Drop Mom who had just missed by a nose to Ginger Punch. Cocoa Beach certainly ran to those underinflated odds in the Beldame and has since worked crisply over the Santa Anita Pro-Ride.
SATURDAY'S CARD
Breeders’ Cup Marathon
Zappa 5-2
Delightful Kiss 8-1
Big Booster 9-2
Chalk left out - Sixties Icon 2-1
Since blowing his opponents away in the 12-furlong Cougar II, ZAPPA has run perfectly respectably in a pair of Grade I races. Now he’s back at the 12-furlong game and facing something less than Grade I synthetic/dirt types. He’s probably the controlling speed in what could be a very soft pace scenario. DELIGHTFUL KISS was very impressive winning the 12-furlong Turfway Park Fall Championship. He has a quick burst when turned loose and is probably the main danger. BIG BOOSTER’s best can make him competitive, but he would probably prefer to see more early lick than what has signed up for this. SIXTIES ICON is one of the world’s best long distance horses -- on grass. With him as one of the likely betting choices, I’ll let him beat me.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Desert Code 30-1
Get Funky 9-2 (Chalk)
Salute the Count 12-1
Best Chalk left out - Fleeting Spirit 5-1
DESERT CODE is my kind of Breeders’ Cup horse because he has talent and will be utterly ignored at the windows. He’s won two stakes going down the hill at Santa Anita, and last time, running off a two and a half month layoff, Desert Code got cooked chasing California Flag. He figured to need that effort and has improved second start off the layoff in the past. On occasion he has broken slowly, and to combat that, Garrett Gomez was intent last time out on really scrubbing on him to get him out of the gate. He broke fine, but Gomez’s efforts may have served only to get him embroiled in the hot pace on a day when, due to track condition and other factors, no one was catching California Flag. In fact there was oddly little change of positions in that Morvich Handicap. If Desert Code can break well under new rider Mike Smith, then relax just off the lead, he will be dangerous at a big price. GET FUNKY is the most likely winner, in my opinion, and a reliable down-the-hill sprinter. SALUTE THE COUNT is both fast and game. His Quick Call win was a real gut check, and he figures to appreciate the extra distance, which may not be the case with likely favorite MR. NIGHTLINGER.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
My Pal Charlie 20-1
Well Armed 3-1 (Chalk)
Lewis Michael 5-1
Best Chalk left out - Albertus Maximus 4-1
This is another “new†Cup race that seems to have found its niche very nicely. MY PAL CHARLIE is utterly untested over synthetic. But he was so strong in the Super Derby that I feel compelled to play him back here. He just may be a future star whose merits have not become obvious to the masses yet. He toyed with a pretty good field in Louisiana and was a “winner every step.†And his West Virginia Derby was way better than it looked due to the suicidal early pace that he got mixed up in. WELL ARMED is totally legit in here off any of his last five races. He has also been working like a champ at Santa Anita for this. He is a must-use in any “pick-X†races. The only “knock†is that his merits are completely obvious. Give LEWIS MICHAEL a synthetic surface and a middle distance and he is as good as just about anyone. He’s a player in this contentious race.
Breeders’ Cup Mile
Kip Deville 5-1
Goldikova 3-1 (Chalk)
U S Ranger 15-1
Best Chalk left out - Whatsthescript (IRE) 4-1
KIP DEVILLE, the defending champ, really needs no introduction, and both his career races at Santa Anita were huge. Interestingly, both his career races at Woodbine were significantly less than huge and he will look to parlay a Woodbine Mile loss into a Breeders’ Cup Mile win for the second straight year. GOLDIKOVA has reeled off three in a row in Europe including a Group I win over Henrythenavigator and other males last time in the Prix du Moulin. She’s very formidable, but can make no mistakes against Kip Deville. U S RANGER doesn’t win often, but he has been duking it out against some of Europe’s best sprinters and he’s also 3-for-4 at a mile. I can easily see him clunking up for third in a field that may lack a certain degree of depth.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Munnings 7-2 (Chalk)
Bushranger 6-1
Square Eddie 9-2 (Chalk)
Best Chalk left out - Midshipman 5-1
This is one of the hardest races of the weekend. Do you go with one of the locals who were part of the blanket finish in the Norfolk? Or do you go with one of the sharp Euros? I’ll do neither. MUNNINGS was super in his debut, got left at the gate in the Hopeful, then ran a perfectly good race in the Champagne behind Vineyard Haven, who would be a heavy favorite in here had he been entered. Do not underestimate the switch back to John Velazquez who missed the Champagne due to injury. BUSHRANGER comes in off a pair of Group I wins and may just be better than these if he takes to synthetic and to the extra quarter mile. But those are always two big ifs. SQUARE EDDIE, perhaps due to Lasix, seemed to like Keeneland Polytrack a lot more than the Kempton Polytrack. A repeat of that effort makes him dangerous, but he will have to deal with better horses in the early stages of this race than what he faced at Keeneland.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Bittel Road 7-2 (Chalk)
Westphalia 5-1
Skipadate 6-1
Best Chalk left out - Coronet of a Baron 9-2
Two races back, BITTEL ROAD won the With Anticipation which produced last year’s inaugural JT winner, Nownownow. That may be just a coincidence. But Bittel Road’s Bourbon win is the race that truly impressed me. Rajiv Maragh kept him on the rail throughout and tried to scoot up the inside turning for home. The problem was there was nowhere for him to go, and he was next to last at the top of the stretch. Maragh had to quickly switch to plan B and swing him to the far outside. Bittel Road flew home from there, sending the red #1 chicklet into a frenzy on the bottom of the Keeneland simulcast screen. I think he is the right play in a race in which many will bet the Europeans just because they’re Europeans. Having said that, WESPHALIA does look tough and he owns a comfy win over Driving Snow who was second by a head to the compromised Bittel Road at Keeneland. SKIPADATE was beaten only a head by Bittel Road at Saratoga, and if you like Bittel Road, you have to respect Skipadate.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Fatal Bullet 6-1
Street Boss 3-1 (Chalk)
Fabulous Strike 4-1
Best Chalk left out - Midnight Lute 7-2
FATAL BULLET was extremely impressive from a visual standpoint when he broke the track record against fellow 3-year-olds in the Kentucky Cup Sprint. But it’s not like it was a fluke or he just had a good day. He is a perfect seven-for-seven in synthetic races shorter than 7 furlongs, and he has also won over three different synthetic courses (Keeneland, Turfway and Presque Isle Downs’s Tapeta). He has a lot of early gas (unlike such key foes as Street Boss and Midnight Lute) and yet he is not a need-the-lead type. STREET BOSS is probably the deserving favorite off his Grade I wins in the Triple Bend and Bing Crosby this summer. But I have a feeling that he may not be able to get away with his customary “swing-extremely-wide-turning-for-home†strategy against a field like this. FABULOS STRIKE, like Fatal Bullet, has a lot of positive angles going for him. He is seven for his last seven in dry track races shorter than seven furlongs. And he earned a very big pace figure finishing second in the Vosburgh despite being under the gun every step of the way. Unlike Fatal Bullet, however, he has never raced over a synthetic strip. While he regularly trains nicely over the Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs, it seems that not all horses who train well over synthetics race well over synthetics. So that will be a nagging question hanging over Fabulous Strike until the gates spring open. MIDNIGHT LUTE is training great and last year’s Sprint winner may be the best horse in the race. But he was also training lights out before his disaster at Del Mar. His sparse 2008 campaign will only be a detriment in a race as tough to win as this one. SING BABY SING will be a huge price despite improving dramatically in the Phoenix in his first-ever race over synthetic. Even better, he overcame a speed/rail bias that day to register his victory over the front running Talent Search.
Breeders’ Cup Turf
Eagle Mountain 6-1
Soldier of Fortune 7-2 (Chalk)
Spring House 10-1
Best Chalk left out - Red Rocks (IRE) 5-1
If you examine EAGLE MOUNTAIN’s form from last year, he mixed it up with some of the best turf horses in Europe. Among those races was a good second in the 12-furlong Epsom Derby in which he finished a comfy three lengths ahead of Soldier of Fortune over firm ground. His only start this year was a head win earlier this month in a Group III, which by itself does not get the pulse racing and wouldn’t seem like a stepping stone to a BC Turf try. But someone apparently thought differently because a major wager was placed on Eagle Mountain immediately after that Group III race in the Wynn Las Vegas BC Turf future book. As I said, his 2007 form is good enough to win this, and trainer Mike DeKock obviously feels confident enough in his horse’s fitness level to send him here for this. SOLDIER OF FORTUNE has run three bang up races this year, including a fine third behind Zarkava in the Arc. But I have always felt that he is, first and foremost, a “soft turf†horse, and those will not be the conditions in place on Saturday. SPRING HOUSE does not have the credentials or the marquee name of a Soldier of Fortune. But he is a perfect two-for-two, including a win this year in the San Luis Obispo, going 12 furlongs on the somewhat funky Santa Anita grass layout. He is in the shrewd hands of trainer Julio Canani who knows how to win a Breeders’ Cup race, and he will be an overlay.
Breeders’ Cup Classic (THE BIG ONE)
Colonel John 20-1
Go Between 8-1
Student Council 20-1
Chalk left out - Curlin (7-5)
We all knew heading in to the Kentucky Derby that COLONEL JOHN was a synthetic lover. Then we learned after the Travers that 10 furlongs was no problem either. He has been training splendidly for this (a race that has been kind to still-developing three-year-olds), and his tactical early speed, which was already a plus factor for him given the lack of such in here, got a further boost when the front-running Mast Track was moved to the Dirt Mile by Bobby Frankel. We’ll see if he is good enough, but this race could not be setting up better for him on paper. I also find it rather bullish and telling that WinStar Farm, which owns both Colonel John and the very talented Goodwood winner Well Armed, sent the latter straight to the B.C. Dirt Mile without any degree of public hesitation. It seems like they knew all along that Colonel John was their horse for this race. GO BETWEEN is not flashy, but he is very effective over synthetics as evidenced by his wins in the Sunshine Millions Classic and Pacific Classic. Just as good, really, was his second in the Hollywood Gold Cup to Mast Track who was left alone on an easy lead. It’s interesting to note, if you’re a follower of jockey moves, that Garrett Gomez and his ultrasharp agent Ron Anderson opted to ride Go Between over Colonel John. CURLIN needs no introduction, but this will be his first race over synthetics, and I can’t help but wonder what price Past the Point or Wanderin Boy would be had either been entered in this race. 30-1? 50-1? Curlin beat Past the Point by a length and a quarter in the Woodward and Wanderin Boy by three-quarters of a length in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. One such example I would excuse due to possible race dynamics, but since he has beaten modest competition by meager margins twice in a row now, Curlin disqualifies himself as a horse I feel comfortable backing at short odds over a new surface in a race like the Breeders’ Cup Classic. In fact, the Steve Asmussen trainee I am more interested in getting involved with is STUDENT COUNCIL, who is a proven Grade I horse over synthetics and whose form has been muddied up just enough for him to offer betting value in this event. And the latest workout reports on Student Council at Santa Anita have been exceedingly positive.
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posted by drtnapper07
Oct. 22 2008 12:35am -
0 likes
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Okay Bitches, Here are the PPs for all 14 races -
5 races on Friday (Races 3 - 7) and
9 races on Saturday (Races 1 - 9)
36 Pages in all - So make sure you have enough
paper in the printer
http://www.equibase.com/bcup2008/oerp/08bcuptv-all.pdf [equibase.com]">http://www.equibase.com/bcup2008/oerp/08bcuptv-all.pdf [equibase.com]>
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posted by drtnapper07
Oct. 22 2008 4:47pm -
0 likes
LETS DO THIS DRTNAPPER!
Ill be here to post my full cards for Friday and Saturday at Santa Anita.... and Im already licking my chops on some nice scores at some very nice prices $$$..... Cant wait to compare with you DRT!
Be back Thurs night at the latest for Fridays races... and Friday night for Saturdays BIG EVENTS! Remember, the weekend starts on Friday with some very tasty routes as well......
be back!
posted by southern5061
Oct. 22 2008 8:05pm -
0 likes
SELECTIONS FOR FRIDAY 10/24
Santa Anita - Breeders Cup Day 1
What you will get: You certainly wont be left with chalk selections here. Im looking for longshots with big scores. We dont have to hit them all to take home some solid dough.... just a few boys. These are value selections based on fundamental handicapping along with a proven quant formula.
How to play: Feel free to play as you please. Key these selections with your exotics, play W/P/S bets, or simply play WIN bets across the board. Up to you..... Have some fun! and go for the big score!
Race 1
#12 Dark Nose 15/1
Race 2
#4 She's Cheeky 5/1
Race 3
#7 Dream Rush 20/1
Race 4
#11 Saucey Evening 9/2
Race 5
#8 C.S. Silk 15/1
Race 6
#5 Wait A While 3/1 (Best Bet)
Race 7
#2 Hystericallady 15/1
Race 8
#2 Lightmyfirebaby 15/1
Race 9
#2 Soul City Slew 12/1
Race 10
No Selection
posted by southern5061
Oct. 22 2008 11:47pm -
0 likes
TV Schedule for all who care:
Friday - RACES 3-7
Oct 24 ESPN2 3:35 PM Sentient Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Filly & Mare Sprint $1,000,000
Oct 24 ESPN2 4:15 PM Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Juvenile Fillies Turf $1,000,000
Oct 24 ESPN2 4:55 PM Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies I Juvenile Fillies $2,000,000
Oct 24 ESPN2 5:35 PM Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf I Filly & Mare Turf $2,000,000
Oct 24 ESPN2 6:15 PM Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic I Ladies' Classic $2,000,000
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Saturday - RACES 1-9
Oct 25 ABC 1:10 PM Breeders' Cup Marathon Marathon $500,000
Oct 25 ABC 1:50 PM Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Turf Sprint $1,000,000
Oct 25 ABC 2:30 PM TVG Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Dirt Mile $1,000,000
Oct 25 ABC 3:15 PM Breeders' Cup Mile I Mile $2,000,000
Oct 25 ESPN 3:55 PM Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile I Juvenile $2,000,000
Oct 25 ESPN 4:35 PM Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Juvenile Turf $1,000,000
Oct 25 ESPN 5:15 PM Sentient Breeders' Cup Sprint I Sprint $2,000,000
Oct 25 ESPN 6:00 PM Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf I Turf $3,000,000
Oct 25 ESPN 6:45 PM Breeders' Cup Classic I Classic $5,000,000
posted by southern5061
Oct. 22 2008 11:52pm -
0 likes
Fridays Card for me: exbx my top 3 selections and win/place/show on my top pick
Race 3
13 -2-11
Race 4
2-3-10
Race 5
6-10-2
Race 6
9-6-3
Race 7
4-5-3
haven't gotten to saturday's plays yet, working on it still.
posted by nystrooper
Oct. 23 2008 2:50pm -
0 likes
NYSTROOPER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
you still owe me money bro
posted by southern5061
Oct. 23 2008 7:58pm -
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Gents... Ive put in 2 solid hours on Saturdays card and run the data twice through my spreadsheets... IM VERY EXCITED. Ive always said the Breeders Cup (more so than any other day of racing) brings together some of the best value opportunities of the racing season..... THIS YEAR IS NO DIFFERENT! If you have followed my plays before, you know I always try to list 1-3 (Best Bet) selections on any given card. This Saturday.... 9 out of 11 races FELL INTO THIS RATING!!! 9!!!!
Santa Anita - Saturday 10/5
Race 1
#2 Add Heat 20/1 (Best Bet)
Race 2
#10 California Flag 15/1 (Best Bet)
Race 3
#7 Albertus Maximus 4/1
Race 4
#5 Daytona 6/1 (Best Bet)
Race 5
#2 Gallant Son 15/1 (Best Bet)
Race 6
#10 Skipadate 6/1 (Best Bet)
Race 7
#1 Cost Of Freedom 4/1 (Best Bet)
Race 8
#10 Out Of Control 10/1 (Best Bet)
Race 9 -The Classic!
#3 Tiago 15/1 (Best Bet)
#6 Smooth Air 50/1 (Bonus Value Selection)
Race 10
#11 Kool Comic 6/1
Race 11
#2 Muny 15/1 (Best Bet)
posted by southern5061
Oct. 23 2008 10:27pm -
0 likes
.
Friday -
MY FINAL CARD
race 3 - #9 WPS 9-13 EX BX (Crazy Longshot play to start the BC)
race 4 - 3-10 EX BX
race 5 - #8 WPS (BIG)
race 6 - #5 WPS (BIG) 2-5 EX BX
race 7 - #5 WPS (BIG) 2-5 EX BX (Yes, same numbers as previous race - not a typo)
Daily Double Race 5 - 8-5
Daily Double Race 6 - 5-5
Saturday
Preliminary Card - Will be close to this with some WPSs
Race 1 - 6-3 & 6-2 EXs
Race 2 - 9-13 & 10-13 EXs
Race 3 - 7-8 EX BX & 1-7-8 TRI BX
Race 4 - 1-9 EX BX & 3-5 EX BX (There's a reason mfor 2 plays)
Race 5 - 8-11 & 2-8 EXs
Race 6 - 10-11 EX BX 1-10-11 TRI
Race 7 - 1-9 EX BX
Race 8 - 8-10 EX BX
Race 9 - 3-11-12 EX BX 1-11-12 TRI BX
posted by drtnapper07
Oct. 24 2008 8:56am