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   Pro Football Trend Report

   TENNESSEE (5 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 4) - 10/19/2008, 1:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons

   TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   SAN DIEGO (3 - 3) at BUFFALO (4 - 1) - 10/19/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   BUFFALO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games since 1992.

   SAN DIEGO is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.

   SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons

   SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   PITTSBURGH (4 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 6) - 10/19/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   PITTSBURGH is 74-47 ATS (+22.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

   PITTSBURGH is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) in October games since 1992.

   PITTSBURGH is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

   CINCINNATI is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

   CINCINNATI is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons

   PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   BALTIMORE (2 - 3) at MIAMI (2 - 3) - 10/19/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   BALTIMORE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   BALTIMORE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   BALTIMORE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

   BALTIMORE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   BALTIMORE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons

   MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   DALLAS (4 - 2) at ST LOUIS (1 - 4) - 10/19/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   ST LOUIS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   ST LOUIS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   ST LOUIS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

   ST LOUIS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

   ST LOUIS is 68-96 ATS (-37.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   ST LOUIS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

   ST LOUIS is 32-53 ATS (-26.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

   DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   MINNESOTA (3 - 3) at CHICAGO (3 - 3) - 10/19/2008, 1:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

   CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NEW ORLEANS (3 - 3) at CAROLINA (4 - 2) - 10/19/2008, 1:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CAROLINA is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons

   CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 4) at NY GIANTS (4 - 1) - 10/19/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

   SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons

   NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   DETROIT (0 - 5) at HOUSTON (1 - 4) - 10/19/2008, 4:05 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.

   DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   DETROIT is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

   DETROIT is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NY JETS (3 - 2) at OAKLAND (1 - 4) - 10/19/2008, 4:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   OAKLAND is 25-50 ATS (-30.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

   OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

   OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons

   NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   CLEVELAND (2 - 3) at WASHINGTON (4 - 2) - 10/19/2008, 4:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   CLEVELAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

   CLEVELAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

   WASHINGTON is 44-68 ATS (-30.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

   WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 2) at GREEN BAY (3 - 3) - 10/19/2008, 4:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   GREEN BAY is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   SEATTLE (1 - 4) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 2) - 10/19/2008, 8:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   SEATTLE is 63-88 ATS (-33.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.

   SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

   SEATTLE is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

   SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   DENVER (4 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (3 - 2) - 10/20/2008, 8:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

   DENVER is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons

   DENVER is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 14 2008 2:59pm
2. 0 likes

   Pointwise for 10/16-20

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   College Key Selections

   1--Iowa over Wisconsin 38-17

   1--Penn State over Michigan 40-13

   2--Virginia (+) over North Carolina 33-23

   3--Memphis(+) over East Carolina 31-30

   3--Tulsa over UTEP 58-24

   4--Oregon State over Washington 44-14

   5--Army (+) over Buffalo 24-27

   5--South Florida over Syracuse 41-10

   NFL Key Selections

   2--Dallas over St. Louis 30-10

   3--Tampa Bay over Seattle 33-13

   4--Washington over Cleveland 27-10

   5--NY Jets over Oakland 27-20

   5--Houston over Detroit 34-20

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 14 2008 3:03pm
3. 0 likes

   CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

   PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES

   CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 16 - 20, 2008 No. 8

   RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

   11 WESTERN MICHIGAN over

   *Central Michigan

   Late Score Forecast:

   WESTERN MICHIGAN 40-

   *Central Michigan 28

   Western Michigan is on a hot streak, as the Broncos have posted a 3-0-1 spread mark and 35 ppg in the last

   month. The offense is in good hands with 6-5 jr. QB Tim Hiller (68%, 23 TD passes and just 5 ints. this season),

   who’s thrown for 550 yds., 6 TDs and just 1 interception in 2 prior games vs. CMU. Western’s receiving corps

   is deep and talented, as WRs Simmons, Julien & Nunez and TE Ledbetter have all already caught 32 or more

   passes. The Broncos balance Hiller’s throws with RB Brandon West, who’s run for an average of 101 yards in

   the last 6 games, and caught 24 passes in ‘08. WMU ranks higher than the Chippewas in several key defensive

   categories, most importantly scoring defense, where the Broncos allow almost a touchdown less per game than

   CMU. WMU is in double-revenge mode, having lost SU to Central in each of the last two years, but the Broncos

   are 4-1-1 vs. the number in the last six meetings.

   10 MISSISSIPPI over *Alabama

   Late Score Forecast:

   MISSISSIPPI 23 - *Alabama 24

   Resurgent Ole Miss succumbed to the “Sport Illustrated Jinx” in 31-24 Oxford loss vs. South Carolina, but believe

   the resilient Rebels can bounce back and perform at the same high level reached in 31-30 upset at Florida. SEC

   scouts report during the bye week HC Houston Nutt is having his team practice with full pads and focusing on

   cutting down on turnovers. Note in its 3 defeats (by combined 15 pts.), Ole Miss has committed 11 TOs (to just

   4 for opponents). Nutt says he is pleased how his players have responded to the harder practices when saying,

   “They’ve had a great attitude, and I’ve had my antenna up.” Fundamentally, Rebels offense possesses the

   balance (156 ypg rushing, 217 passing) and diversity to produce vs. Bama defense that showed some chinks in

   2nd H of 41-30 win vs. Georgia. And with Tide ground assault unlikely to steamroll Rebels front 7 (3.3 ypc, 13

   sacks), Saban’s crew will be in a 60-minute battle. Bama just 3-16 as Tuscaloosa chalk since ‘05.

   10 VANDERBILT over *Georgia

   Late Score Forecast:

   VANDERBILT 20 - *Georgia 24

   Although the loss at Mississippi State puts a crimp in Vandy’s SEC title dreams, have to continue to be impressed

   by the Commodore defense. That unit is allowing just 16 ppg, puts on a tremendous pass rush, and has been

   forcing turnovers and providing the offense with good field position. Special teams have contributed as well, as

   Vandy ranks 22nd in net punting and D.J. Moore is 3rd in the nation in returning punts (23 ypp). The Georgia

   offense was highly touted when the Dawgs were ranked No. 1 in preseason, but production has been a bit

   harder to come by in SEC play, where Georgia has averaged 23 ppg in 3 league contests after pouring in 101 pts

   in first 2 games this season. One reason things have gotten tougher offensively is that the Dawgs have lost their

   top two left tackles to injury. No reason defense and special teams can’t keep Vandy in the game for 60 minutes.

   10 *VIRGINIA over North Carolina

   Late Score Forecast:

   *VIRGINIA 26 - North Carolina 20

   Now that North Carolina’s star WR/returner Tate (ACC-leading 165 all-purpose ypg) is out for year with a torn

   ACL, ACC sources strongly urge taking the still-generous number with suddenly-surging 3-3 Virginia, back in the

   bowl picture following dominating 35-20 victory over East Carolina. Previously-stagnant Cav offense is now

   grooving behind 6-3 soph QB Verica (50 of 66 last 2 games) and RB Peerman (173 YR vs. Pirates; 186 vs. Tar

   Heels LY), operating behind a cohesive OL. Gambling Tar Heel 2ndary (14 ints. but 60%, 232 ypg passing) likely

   to get burned deep vs. sizzling Cav attack knee deep at WR. Meanwhile, hard-charging Cav defense (18 sacks),

   featuring LB Sintim (7 sacks), will pressure Tar Heel QB Sexton, especially since ground game gains just 3.4 ypc.

   And, with the aforementioned Tate sidelined, UVA 2ndary can do more “doubling” on homerun threat WR Nicks.

   Groh’s squad has covered 14 of last 17 as a dog, and last 8 at home vs. UNC.

   10 TENNESSEE over *Kansas City

   Late Score Forecast:

   TENNESSEE 23 - *Kansas City 6

   (Sunday, October 19)

   While rebuilding K.C. is preparing Brodie Croyle (0-7 as an NFL starter) to return to the starting lineup for the first

   time since he injured his shoulder in the season opener, Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher has been at work during

   the team’s bye week studying the success of the Dolphins and several college teams in various formations that

   make use of the QB in unusual ways. The 5-0 Titans thus plan to have extra weapons in their arsenal with the

   return this week of Vince Young. Although Kerry Collins will remain the starter, Young is also expected to see

   action, armed with a new group of plays and also sharing the field with Collins at times. However, the Chiefs

   dare not forget about the speed of RB Chris Johnson (381 YR), one of the brightest rookies in the league.

   Fisher’s underrated “D” is allowing only 11 ppg, best in the NFL!

   TOTALS: N.Y. Jets-Oakland UNDER (43)—Oakland coaching change won’t help, and QB JaMarcus Russell can’t sustain drives. N.Y. offense could be “Jetlagged”

   from cross-country trip...Cleveland-Washington UNDER (39-estimated line)—Cleveland’s 12 ppg is the worst production in the NFL; Giants allow

   2nd fewest points in the league. It usually takes two teams scoring to get a game over the total.

   HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTHWESTERN (-4) vs. Purdue—Look for Wildcats to bounce back as lame duck Purdue HC Joe Tiller

   sounds as if he’s ready to give underachieving QB Painter the hook....MISSISSIPPI STATE (+8½) at Tennessee—MSU has covered 3 of last 4 and owns

   the country’s No. 3 pass defense. Vols a sad 108th in scoring...NEW MEXICO (-14½) vs. San Diego State—Aztec defensive line injuries just keep coming;

   QBing medical report not a lot better, and they run for the fewest yards in the nation. Lobo RB Ferguson will have a monster day...UTEP (+17½) at Tulsa—

   Look for Miners to trade TDs all the way in this “defense-optional” affair. UTEP QB Vittatoe has 825 YP, 10 TDPs & just 1 int. in last 3 games...MIAMI (-3)

   vs. Baltimore—Ravens represent the least-productive attack the Dolphin defense has faced this season, while the “Wildcat” set has pushed Miami into the

   top ten in offense.

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 14 2008 3:03pm
4. 0 likes

   THE GOLD SHEET

   VOLUME 52 OCTOBER 16-20, 2008 NO. 8

   NFL ANALYSIS

   KEY RELEASES

   HOUSTON by 19 over Detroit

   INDIANAPOLIS by 11 over Green Bay

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

   OVER THE TOTAL in the Minnesota-Chicago game

   SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19

   Tennessee 23 - KANSAS CITY 10—Vince Young is expected to be back in

   action, but Kerry Collins will remain the starter for 5-0 Tennessee. However,

   Titan coach Jeff Fisher has hinted Tenn. spent part of its bye week installing a

   change-of-pace package of plays with Vince at QB, plus a grouping with both

   Collins & Young (think receiver) on the field at the same time. Meanwhile, K.C.

   turning back to QB Brodie Croyle (0-7 as a starter; shoulder injury in opener) as

   part of its youth movement. Fisher’s underrated defense allowing only 11 ppg,

   led by sturdy DTs Albert Haynesworth (5½ sacks) & Tony Brown (3½).

   (07-Tenn. 26-K. CITY 17...T.19-17 T.36/148 K.21/89 K.25/43/2/217 T.16/26/0/179 T.0 K.1)

   (07-Tennessee -3' 26-17...SR: Kansas City 27-19)

   BUFFALO 24 - San Diego 22—Check status of QB Trent Edwards, as Bills’

   offense was showing good rhythm and avoiding turnovers when he was at the

   controls. Backup J.P. Losman possesses a big-play knack, but is less

   consistent. Chargers got their offense going at home in easy 30-10 win over

   New England. However, the five westernmost NFL teams (Sea., S.F., Oak.,

   S.D. & Ariz.) are 0-6 SU and only 1-5 vs. the spread vs. eastern teams TY, with

   the lone cover recorded by the Raiders in a 24-23 loss at Buffalo.

   (06-San Diego -6 24-21...SR: San Diego 21-11-2)

   Pittsburgh 23 - CINCINNATI 13—We’d be reluctant to pick the spot where

   troubled Cincy would earn its first win of the season even if we knew Bengals

   had all hands on deck. But with Carson Palmer’s sore elbow making it possible that

   Ryan Fitzpatrick might have to go against Dick LeBeau’s active Pittsburgh zone

   blitzers, and with Cincy’s ground game slowed to a crawl (only 3.3 ypc), we’ll wait

   a bit longer before recommending the Bengals. Note that Ben Roethlisberger

   is on 10-game NFL win streak in his native Ohio (18 straight victories in the

   Buckeye State when counting his senior year at nearby Miami University!)

   (07-Pitt 24-CINCY 13...P.23-15 P.33/160 C.21/91 P.19/26/1/230 C.23/31/0/205 P.0 C.1)

   (07-PITT 24-Cincy 10...P.20-15 P.35/101 C.23/74 P.21/32/2/184 C.17/44/0/175 P.2 C.1)

   (07-Pittsburgh -3' 24-13, PITTSBURGH -7 24-10...SR: Pittsburgh 46-30)

   MIAMI 24 - Baltimore 13—We have no doubt Ray Lewis and the proud

   Baltimore defense will be well-prepared for Ronnie Brown and Miami’s

   “Wildcat” trickery. But the Dolphins’ base offense has been clicking lately

   largely because of QB Chad Pennington, completing 79% of his tosses the past

   3 weeks as he gets more familiar with his new surroundings. Meanwhile, Raven

   rookie Joe Flacco is finding that life in the NFL is a bit more difficult than with the

   Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens, as his 3 costly picks last week at Indy have tilted

   his TD/int. ratio (now 1/7) the wrong way.

   (07-MIAMI 22-Balt. 16 (OT)...21-21 B.36/163 M.29/72 M.23/39/0/288 B.15/30/1/182 M.0 B.0)

   (07-MIAMI +3' 22-16 (OT)...SR: Miami 5-2)

   Dallas 31 - ST. LOUIS 13—Hooray for Jim Haslett and the Rams for their first

   victory of 2007. However, although their psyche is better, it’s hard to envision

   them beating the much more talented Cowboys, especially with the vulnerable

   St. Louis secondary unlikely to be able to handle the Dallas receivers from the

   get-go. And it’s no secret around the league that the Rams’ LB crew is below

   NFL standards. That’s not good vs. the Dallas RBs and its huge OL, especially

   with the Pokes in bounce-back mode (check Tony Romo’s finger injury). On the

   fast track indoors, will side with visitor vs. St. Louis team that is just 1-6 last 7

   as a home dog.

   (07-DALLAS 35-St. Louis 7...D.28-12 D.33/171 S.21/62 D.21/33/1/331 S.14/30/1/125 D.0 S.0)

   (07-DALLAS -13 35-7...SR: EVEN 14-14)

   OVER THE TOTAL CHICAGO 30 - Minnesota 20—Adrian Peterson

   not likely to sneak up on Lovie Smith’s defense as he did last season when

   running for 350 yards in two meetings vs. Chicago (including a whopping 224 in

   his breakout game at Soldier Field) when the Vikings swept. But the Bears are

   a different animal in ‘08, especially with Kyle Orton beginning to resemble a

   genuine NFL QB. The presence of dynamic rookie RB Matt Forte means

   Chicago won’t abandon run vs. the stingy Minnesota rush defense missing MLB

   E.J. Henderson. Meanwhile, the disruptive, opportunistic Bear “D” can harass

   Gus Frerotte. Chicago “over” 17-4 at home; Vikes “over” all three on road TY.

   (07-Minn. 34-CHI. 31...C.20-16 M.43/311 C.24/83 C.26/45/2/375 M.9/23/0/133 M.0 C.2)

   (07-MINN. 20-Chi. 13...M.21-11 M.34/136 C.17/32 M.18/29/3/236 C.22/38/1/177 M.1 C.0)

   (07-Minnesota +5 34-31, MINNESOTA -10' 20-13...SR: Minnesota 50-42-2)

   CAROLINA 26 - New Orleans 17—Series trends favor New Orleans, which

   has covered its last 6 trips to Charlotte. But such angles are not etched in

   granite in the 2008 NFC South, as Carolina found out last week when its 5-game

   win streak at Tampa Bay came to a crashing halt. Now in bounce-back mode,

   the Panthers’ normally reliable infantrymen D. Williams & J. Stewart should be

   able to establish themselves after being non-factors last week when Carolina

   fell behind so early vs. Bucs. Also foresee a more characteristic performance

   from the rugged Panther “D” not used to seeing opposing RBs breaking the

   century mark, as Warrick Dunn did last week (and which Larry Johnson, L.T.,

   & Michael Turner could not do earlier TY).

   (07-Car. 16-N. ORL. 13...N.23-12 N.28/89 C.28/88 N.29/47/2/252 C.11/19/1/155 C.0 N.0)

   (07-N. Orl. 31-CAR. 6...N.22-11 N.39/113 C.18/43 N.24/36/1/260 C.18/36/3/152 N.0 C.1)

   (07-Carolina +3 16-13, New Orleans -3 31-6...SR: Carolina 15-11)

   NY GIANTS 34 - San Francisco 13—Interesting matchup of the Giants’

   sack-seeking front seven vs. S.F.’s sack-yielding (23) Mike Martz offense. With

   the 49ers lacking game-breakers at WR, N.Y. defensive coordinator Spagnuolo

   is likely to be willing to take lots of chances to disrupt S.F. QB O’Sullivan (7 TDs,

   8 ints.) early and often. Prior to their Monday nighter in Cleveland, the G-Men

   were No. 1 in offense, scoring & rushing, plus No. 3 in defense, not to mention

   9-1 their previous 10 vs. the spread. Can’t trust underdog Niners from

   destructing at key junctures.

   (07-NY GIA. 33-S. Fran. 15...N.21-20 N.31/140 S.18/103 S.23/38/2/164 N.18/32/1/139 N.0 S.2)

   (07-NY GIANTS -9' 33-15...SR: San Francisco 17-16)

   HOUSTON 35 - Detroit 16—One of our favorite lines from the late

   deadpan comedian Jackie Vernon, when quoting ersatz “philosopher” Sig

   Sakowitz, was, “A sieve might not hold water, but it can hold another sieve.”

   That comment seems strangely appropriate to the Detroit defense, giving up 37

   ppg and 180 ypg rushing prior to last week’s 12 & 135 at Minnesota. Houston’s

   speedy rookie RB Steve Slaton (343 YR), now backed up by consistent veteran

   Ahman Green, should be eager to test that lenient unit, allowing Gary Kubiak’s

   play-action offense to work time and again. WR Andre Johnson (10 for 178 vs.

   Miami) red hot. Texans 8-4 vs. the spread their last 12 at home; Lions (who still

   can’t run) only 2 covers their last 13 away. (04-DETROIT -3 28-16...SR: Detroit 1-0)

   OAKLAND 17 - NY Jets 16—Heidi reprise!!! It’s actually been 39 years and

   8 visits by the Jets to Oakland since that infamous 43-32 victory by the Raiders

   in the closing seconds in 1968. Moreover, New York didn’t play well in last

   week’s virtual walkover vs. the Carson Palmer-less Bengals, yielding a fumble

   TD for the first score, seeing Brett Favre toss 2 ints., and gaining only 252 yards.

   The tech trends don’t favor Oakland (only 2-11 vs. the spread its last 13 at home).

   But these Raiders fighting harder and have more offensive talent (albeit it’s still

   blossoming) than those most of those teams. Home debut of new HC Tom Cable.

   (06-NY JETS -11 23-3...SR: Oakland 21-16-2)

   WASHINGTON 26 - Cleveland 12—Redskins took the 0-4 Rams for granted

   last week and let a potential victory get away. But after their only other loss TY,

   Jim Zorn’s charges bounced back with a 29-24 victory over New Orleans.

   Clinton Portis (643 YR) should give Wash. plenty of ball control in this matchup,

   while QB Jason Campbell has yet to throw and int. TY! DE Jason Taylor is back

   in action, while the Skins secondary is one of the deepest in the league.

   (04-CLEVELAND +3 17-13...SR: Cleveland 33-9-1)

   Indianapolis 31 - GREEN BAY 20—Peyton Manning’s preseason

   knee injury is now a thing of the past, as he (5 TDP the last two weeks) and his

   multi-talented receiver corps were able to burn the banged-up secondary of the

   Ravens early and decisively last week. Envision the same scenario vs. the

   hurting Packer back line this week. Kudos to QB Aaron Rodgers (11 TDs, 4

   ints.) for toughing it through his shoulder injury the last two weeks. But the fact

   is that his three career wins thus far have come against opposing QBs Tarvaris

   Jackson, Jon Kitna, and Charlie Frye. Manning’s scalp will be tougher to get,

   even at Lambeau. (04-INDIANAPOLIS -6 45-31...SR: EVEN 20-20-1)

   *TAMPA BAY 26 - Seattle 10—Mike Holmgren’s swan song as Seattle’s

   head coach is turning out to be a nightmare of injuries at the WR & QB positions

   (check status of Matt Hasselbeck). He can look for no relief vs. the tough-tocrack

   Tampa zone, which has pretty much controlled 4 of its last 5 foes. The

   Buccaneer offense generates few big gainers, but grisled veterans Jeff Garcia (15

   of 20, no ints.) and Warrick Dunn (115 YR) were nearly mistake free in last week’s,

   wire-to-wire, 27-3 victory over power-running Carolina week ago. TV—NBC

   (07-SEATTLE 20-T. Bay 6...S.17-13 S.34/139 T.23/90 S.17/24/0/204 T.20/31/0/194 S.1 T.2)

   (07-SEATTLE -6 20-6...SR: Seattle 7-1)

   MONDAY, OCTOBER 20

   *Denver 23 - NEW ENGLAND 19—Matt Cassel now 2-2 as a starter, with the

   Pats averaging 18 ppg. No offense to Cassel, but that’s not exactly the same

   as the recording-setting 37 ppg juggernaut directed by Tom Brady LY.

   Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is arguably the brightest young QB in the league, with 12

   TDs vs. 5 interceptions while running Mike Shanahan’s play-action offense.

   Yes, Denver has covered only 2 of its last 10 away. But Shanahan is 5-1 vs. the

   spread his last 6 meetings vs. Bill Bellichick. Pats still capable, but have much

   to prove. CABLE TV—ESPN

   (06-Denver +6' 17-7...SR: Denver 26-15)

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 14 2008 3:04pm
5. 0 likes

   THE GOLD SHEET

   VOLUME 52 OCTOBER 16-20, 2008 NO. 8

   COLLEGE ANALYSIS

   KEY RELEASES

   IOWA by 14 over Wisconsin

   ARKANSAS Plus over Kentucky

   SAN JOSE STATE by 12 over New Mexico State

   LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 15 over Arkansas State

   THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16

   *Florida State 24 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 19—Seminoles have won &

   covered two straight, as FSU offense (540 YR in last 2 games!) starting to

   pound the rock. Special game for well-liked ‘Nole assistant coach & deposed

   former N.C. State mentor Amato. Still, inclined to take points with host &

   resourceful RS frosh QB R. Wilson (3 TDP, 2 TDR, no ints. in his last 2 games).

   Insiders say injured LB Irving & DT Cash likely back in action for speedy

   Wolfpack defense. CABLE TV—ESPN

   (07-FLA. ST. 27-N. Car. St. 10...19-19 F.35/124 N.34/96 F.16/28/0/257 N.19/32/3/172 F.0 N.1)

   (07-FSU -18 27-10 06-NCS +10 24-20 05-Ncs +12' 20-15...SR: Florida State 19-9)

   *TCU 26 - Byu 20—The difference in the “BCS Buster” candidacies of these

   two is the fact TCU has had to face (and lose to) Oklahoma, and BYU hasn’t had

   a similar test. But d.c. Dick Bumpas’ hot-pursuing, top-ranked Frog defense

   might prove an effective weapon vs. QB Max Hall and high-powered Cougar

   attack. Not convinced BYU “D” as good as its numbers suggest after steady

   diet of impotent opposition. TCU loses little with backup QB Jackson (who has

   led back-to-back wins) in lineup, and Frogs very tough to beat in Fort Worth (18-

   2 SU, 14-4 vs. line as host since ‘05)!

   (07-BYU 27-Tcu 22...T.22-19 T.39/130 B.34/112 B.26/44/1/305 T.24/37/1/222 B.1 T.0)

   (07-BYU -7 27-22 06-Byu +5' 31-17 05-Tcu +3' 51-50 (OT)...SR: BYU 5-2)

   FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17

   *BOISE STATE 41 - Hawaii 10—UH progressing under new HC McMackin.

   But won’t be dissuaded from supporting hopeful BCS-buster BSU, playing

   ferocious defense (no TD last 8 Qs!) to complement an always well-designed,

   fluid attack. Broncos highly-accurate RS frosh QB K. Moore (72%, 10 TDs, 3

   ints.) has the diverse weaponry to exploit undersized Warrior defense that’s

   allowed 101 combined pts. vs. the top two attacks it has faced (Florida &

   Oregon State). Fast-starting BSU has outscored opponents 117-23 in 1st H.

   CABLE TV—ESPN

   (07-HAWAII 39-Boise St. 27...H.33-19 B.35/101 H.24/79 H.40/53/2/495 B.22/37/1/231 H.0 B.1)

   (07-HAWAII -3 39-27 06-BSU -14' 41-34 05-Bsu -10' 44-41...SR: Boise State 6-3)

   SATURDAY, OCTOBER 18

   Connecticut 26 - RUTGERS 19—Scouts very skeptical that 1-5 Scarlet

   Knights will be able to pull out of tailspin in second half of season. Punchless

   Rutgers offense (just 13 ppg in first 5 vs. FBS foes) dearly misses departed star

   RB Ray Rice, while visiting UConn owns nation’s leading rusher in jr. Donald

   Brown (178 ypg).

   (07-CONN. 38-Rut. 19...R.29-18 C.39/256 R.33/168 R.32/54/1/343 C.10/21/0/140 C.0 R.0)

   (07-CONN. -1 38-19 06-RUTGERS -19' 24-13 05-Rutgers -3' 26-24...SR: Conn. 4-2)

   Wake Forest 17 - MARYLAND 13—It might be best just to stay away from

   games involving bipolar Maryland, as divining what kind of effort to expect out

   of schizophrenic Terps from week to week a crapshoot at best. Wake offense

   (just 3 TDs, 8 FGs in last 3 games) struggling in red zone, but very veteran Deacon

   defense (eight 5th-year seniors!) is the most dependable platoon on field.

   (07-WF 31-Md. 24 (OT)...19-19 M.57/200 W.41/178 W.22/35/3/219 M.11/20/1/115 W.1 M.2)

   (07-WFU -3' 31-24 (OT) 06-Wfu +1' 38-24 05-Mary. +2 22-12...SR: Maryland 40-15-1)

   Georgia Tech 23 - CLEMSON 16—With pressure building on HC Tommy

   Bowden, troubled Tigers switching to RS frosh Willy Korn at QB. The touted

   Korn’s considerable mobility figures to come in handy vs. swarming Yellow

   Jackets (4-0 vs. spread), as young, patchwork Clemson OL vs. Tech’s topnotch

   DL looks like a MAJOR mismatch. Scouts say not to read too much into

   Jackets’ close call vs. Gardner-Webb last week (see Special Ticker). CABLE

   TV-ESPN2

   (07-GA. TECH 13-Clem. 3...G.14-5 G.46/189 C.32/34 C.17/39/1/194 G.7/16/1/67 G.1 C.1)

   (07-TECH +3 13-3 06-CLEM. -7 31-7 05-TECH -2' 10-9...SR: Georgia Tech 46-24-2)

   EAST CAROLINA 33 - Memphis 31—Poor Pirates need a hug after rising

   into nation’s top 15 during first few weeks, only to plummet down rankings with

   3 straight losses. ECU should find enough holes in improving (but still

   vulnerable) Memphis defense to get back in win column. But potent Tigers capable

   of trading points behind juco QB Hall (61%, 559 YP, 6 TDP last 2 games).

   (07-E. Car. 56-MEMP. 40...24-24 E.44/491 M.28/77 M.34/61/2/416 E.12/26/0/150 E.0 M.0)

   (07-Ecu -5' 56-40 06-ECU -2' 35-20 05-MEMPHIS -7' 27-24...SR: East Carolina 10-6)

   DUKE 24 - Miami-Florida 23—Hurricanes’ defense is banged up, and their

   offense (just 216 yards in home win over UCF) clearly a work in progress. Big

   experience edge for Duke jr. QB Lewis (28 TDP, only 13 ints. last 1+ seasons)

   over still-maturing RS frosh Miami counterpart Marve (7 ints. last 3 games).

   Extra week of prep helps crafty new HC Cutcliffe & his blossoming Blue Devils

   spring upset. CABLE TV-ESPNU

   (07-MIAMI 24-Duke 14...M.21-17 M.37/185 D.37/61 M.20/25/2/245 D.18/27/0/241 M.0 D.2)

   (07-MIAMI -24 24-14 06-Miami -18 20-15 05-MIAMI -35' 52-7...SR: Miami-Florida 4-1)

   *Virginia Tech 19 - BOSTON COLLEGE 13—New BC QB Crane’s shaky

   confidence bolstered by his 428 YP & 5 TDs (2 pass, 3 rush) during Eagle win

   at N.C. State. However, he’ll find going MUCH tougher against consistently

   obdurate Hokie stop unit that’s begrudged foes fewer than 14 ppg over last 4+

   seasons. BC’s stout front 7 does match up well against run-oriented Hokie

   attack, but wouldn’t buck wily old Tech mentor Beamer (17-3 vs. spread last 20

   as true visitor!) in anticipated defensive struggle. TV-ESPN2

   (07-Bos. Col. 14-VA. TECH 10...B.19-15 V.41/116 B.18/32 B.25/53/2/285 V.15/25/0/149 B.0 V.2)

   (07-Va. Tech 30-BOS. COL. 16...B.24-22 V.36/98 B.25/84 B.33/52/2/305 V.21/33/1/202 V.1 B.0)

   (07-Bc +3 14-10, Tech -4' 30-16 06-BC +2' 22-3 05-TECH -13' 30-10...SR: Va. Tech 9-6)

   SOUTH FLORIDA 42 - Syracuse 10—Host Bulls will be snorting fire after

   having an extra week to stew over rare home loss to Pitt. Meanwhile, hanging

   around at Pat White-less West Virginia definitely not a buy sign for sad-sack

   Syracuse.

   (07-Usf 41-SYRACUSE 10...U.26-14 U.56/346 S.17/15 S.21/38/2/276 U.19/28/1/236 U.0 S.2)

   (07-Usf -17' 41-10 06-USF -10 27-10 05-Usf -7' 27-0...SR: South Florida 3-0)

   IOWA 27 - Wisconsin 13—A tale of two QBs, as Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi is

   making solid progress and minimizing mistakes, while Wisconsin’s Allan

   Evridge has regressed to the point he only completed 2 passes against Penn

   State and has probably lost his job to Dustin Sherer (career 11 of 22, 2 ints., no

   TDPs). Hawkeyes own the better defense, and RB Shonn Greene is 6th in the

   nation in rushing (134 ypg). A win here key to Iowa bowl hopes.

   (07-WIS. 17-Iowa 13...W.17-13 W.49/166 I.26/59 I.17/37/0/169 W.12/23/1/138 W.2 I.0)

   (07-WIS. -7' 17-13 06-Wis. -1' 24-21 05-Iowa +2' 20-10...SR: Wisconsin 41-40-2)

   NORTHWESTERN 30 - Purdue 22—Not sure if Purdue QB Painter did

   enough against Ohio State to retain his starting job, but his performance at the

   Shoe wasn’t any worse than C.J. Bacher’s effort at home in loss to Michigan

   State. Wildcat RB Sutton had 139 YR vs. the Spartans, and he gives NW a little

   consistency absent on Boilers. TV-ESPN

   (07-PURDUE 35-N’western 17...N.20-19 P.38/220 N.29/89 N.20/39/3/208 P.24/38/0/182 P.0 N.1)

   (07-PURDUE -13 35-17 06-Purdue -7 31-10 05-Nwu +7' 34-29...SR: Purdue 49-25-1)

   OKLAHOMA 40 - Kansas 17—During KU’s wonderful 12-1 campaign of

   2007, the Jayhawks did not have to face the powers of the Big XII South on the

   road. Now KU does. Neither team is running as well as it would like, but OU

   strikes “sooner” (110-6 in the first Q TY) with its big-play aerial game, while KU

   must usually be content to chip away. Sooners disappointed after last week,

   but they’re 11-3-1 vs. the spread their last 15 at home. Jayhawks’ 3-0 dog mark

   L1+Ys duly noted. (05-Oklahoma -6' 19-3...SR: Oklahoma 66-27-6)

   BOWLING GREEN 37 - Miami-Ohio 24—Miami has dropped 7 of last 8 SU,

   and QB Raudabaugh has completed just 22 of 41 passes for 180 yards and 0

   TDs in last 2 games. Conversely, BG triggerman Sheehan has thrown for 831

   yds., with 7 TDs and just 1 int. in the last 3 games. RedHawk pass “D” doesn’t bring

   much pressure & ranks 108th in efficiency.

   (07-MIAMI 47-B. Green 14...M.26-14 M.53/262 B.26/25 M.16/24/0/237 B.19/32/1/207 M.1 B.2)

   (07-MIAMI -1 47-14 06-Miami +4 9-7 05-Bgu +9 42-14...SR: Bowling Green 35-24-5)

   Western Michigan 37 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35—In a battle of the two best

   QBs in the MAC, favor WMU’s Tim Hiller a bit over reigning league MVP Dan

   LeFevour. Hiller is having a slightly better season, as he’s completed 68% with

   23 TDs and just 5 ints., compared with LeFevour’s 65%, 9 TDs & 3 ints.

   Broncos have an edge running (jr. RB Brandon West 90 ypg rushing) and

   defensively, and Chips just 1 cover last 6 vs. WMU.

   (07-C. Mich. 34-W. MICH. 31...C.22-21 C.43/149 W.35/107 W.27/37/1/311 C.23/38/1/235 C.1 W.0)

   (07-Cmu -3 34-31 06-CMU -6 31-7 05-WMU -2' 31-24...SR: Western Michigan 43-33-2)

   Nebraska 23 - IOWA STATE 20—Even though ISU disappointed in 38-10

   loss last week at Baylor, coach Gene Chizik is forming a useful young nucleus

   of 6-3 soph QB Arnaud, 5-10 soph RB A. Robinson, and 6-3 jr. WR M. Hamilton.

   Cornhuskers refused to cave in last week at Texas Tech, but they’ve covered

   just two of their last ten on the road and lack the power ground game to give

   them physical control as in the past.

   (07-NEB. 35-Iowa St. 17...I.28-17 I.51/134 N.30/130 I.26/51/3/281 N.19/29/1/239 N.2 I.1)

   (07-NEB. -21 35-17 06-Neb. -7 28-14 05-NEB. -3' 27-20 (OT)...SR: Nebraska 84-16-2)

   *TENNESSEE 20 - Mississippi State 16—Vexed Vols off to their worst SEC

   start since 1988. But with UT ground game coming to a grinding halt (1 net yd.

   in 15 carries vs. UGA), doubt raw QB Stephens able to compensate vs.

   aggressive MSU defense that limited Vandy to just 107 yds. Bulldogs careful jr.

   QB T. Lee (no int. in 65 passes) has time to find favorite target 6-4 WR McRae

   (19 catches last 3 games), since Vol DL applying little pressure (10th in SEC in

   sacks). Croom’s troops 8-3-1 as road dog since ‘06.

   (07-Tenn. 33-MISS. ST. 21...M.18-14 T.42/211 M.36/135 T.22/36/1/259 M.18/33/0/203 T.0 M.0)

   (07-Tennessee -7 33-21...SR: Tennessee 27-15-1)

   ALABAMA 26 - Mississippi 21—Since resurgent Ole Miss has been fiercelycompetitive

   in every game, generous points should work with Rebels, who’ve

   given Bama fits in past 3 outings (see Looking for an Angle). If Ole Miss

   minimizes mistakes (15 giveaways so far), Rebels strong-armed QB Snead

   (1272 YP) & his speedy WRs well-equipped to stretch Bama defense. Doubt

   Tide’s preferred smashmouth tactics overwhelm a now-healthy, formidable Ole

   Miss DL (allowing 3.3. ypc). HC Nutt 2-0 as a dog TY, while Bama bankrolldepleting

   3-16 as Tuscaloosa chalk since 05. TV-CBS

   (07-Ala. 27-MISS. 24...A.27-19 M.31/136 A.40/113 M.22/40/3/284 A.26/40/1/265 A.1 M.0)

   (07-Ala. -6' 27-24 06-ALA. -16 26-23 (OT) 05-Ala. -13' 13-10...SR: Alabama 44-9-2)

   GEORGIA 27 - Vanderbilt 17—Though previously undefeated Vandy finally

   tossed in a clinker in 17-14 setback in Starkville (season-high 10 penalties) still

   interested in even-keeled ‘Dores, who’ve covered 5 straight as an underdog.

   Vandy owns the defensive speed & athleticism (16 ppg, 11 ints.) to contain

   Georgia, as it has L2Ys. Capable Dore QBs Nickson and/or Adams do some

   business vs. young UGA 2ndary (ranked 11th in SEC) after generating a paltry

   65 YP vs. Miss. State. UGA just 3-8 as DD Athens chalk since ‘05.

   (07-Ga. 20-VANDY 17...G.17-14 V.38/179 G.35/167 G.16/31/0/201 V.9/15/0/131 G.0 V.2)

   (07-Georgia -7 20-17 06-Vandy +14 24-22 05-Georgia -16 34-17...SR: Georgia 48-18-2)

   Akron 31 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 30—Hard to recommend EMU, as Eagles

   have covered just once this season and allow 207 ypg rushing, but Akron is in

   even worse shape defensively. Yielding just 38 points in last two games (both

   on the road) shows EMU capable of at least competing defensively, and

   emergence of soph RB Dwayne Priest (118 YR at Army) helps take pressure off

   QB Schmitt.

   (DNP...SR: Akron 15-10)

   UTAH 37 - Colorado State 9—MWC scouts admit that CSU better than

   expected. But fundamentals a bit troubling for Rams, whose “O” slowed to a

   crawl last week vs. TCU when Frogs took away RB Gartrell Johnson’s ground

   threat and forced HC Fairchild to switch to backup QB Kubiak in hope of igniting

   attack (it didn’t work). Utah’s 8th-ranked rush “D” can do much the same, and

   Utes (8-3 last 1 laying DDs) have KO power.

   (07-Utah 27-COLO. ST. 3...U.24-17 U.49/322 C.34/135 C.16/28/1/140 U.14/22/1/130 U.1 C.0)

   (07-Utah -5' 27-3 06-UTAH -12 35-22 05-CSU -4' 21-17...SR: Utah 30-17-2)

   Texas Tech 37 - TEXAS A&M 20—For the sixth time in six games TY, Texas

   Tech rushed for more than 100 yards! While that improved ground game has

   helped balance the Red Raider offense, it has somewhat cut into the customary

   dizzying stats of QB Graham Harrell (“only” 20 TDP so far). The A&M defense

   still porous, but Mike Sherman’s development of 6-5 soph QB Jerrod Johnson

   (68 YR, school-record 419 YP last week) continues to impress despite Aggies’

   1-5 spread mark.

   (07-TEX. TECH 35-Tex. A&M 7...T.25-20 A.43/233 T.29/108 T.30/37/0/425 A.17/30/1/133 T.1 A.0)

   (07-TECH -9' 35-7 06-Tech +2' 31-27 05-TECH -15 56-17...SR: Texas A&M 34-31-1)

   RICE 44 - Southern Miss 37—Revenge-minded Southern Miss hungry for

   victory after dropping last 3 games, and new HC Fedora’s fledgling Eagle attack

   should find substantial updraft facing yielding Rice defense. Still, USM’s own stop

   unit is down TY, so irrepressible Owl sr. QB Clement (66 TDP last 2+ seasons)

   most likely to fire decisive scoring shots.

   (07-Rice 31-s. MISS 29...S.21-14 S.37/189 R.41/169 S.25/45/4/233 R.9/21/1/67 R.1 S.3)

   (07-Rice +20' 31-29...SR: Rice 1-0)

   Southern Cal 59 - WASHINGTON STATE 7—Al Roker might as well be

   giving the forecast these days for bedraggled Wazzu, as “cloudy with highs in

   the 60s” takes on a new connotation with Cougs (who have already allowed 60+

   three times!). And yet another QB injury (latest starter Lobbestael out a month)

   has Paul Wulff praying that one-time starter Lopina can recover quickly. Final

   margin depends solely upon Pete Carroll’s compassion.

   (07-S. CAL 47-Wash. St. 14...S.28-15 S.35/207 W.27/64 S.30/38/2/302 W.21/43/1/183 S.0 W.0)

   (07-USC -25 47-14 06-Usc -16' 28-22 05-USC -29' 55-13...SR: Southern Cal 55-8-4)

   Pittsburgh 29 - NAVY 22—Usually reluctant to go against money-making

   Middies (43-25-1 vs. spread last 69 on board!), as new HC Niumatalolo (3

   straight covers) has continued former boss Paul Johnson’s profitable ways.

   Fundamentals not bad for Pitt, however, as star soph RB McCoy (291 YR in last

   2 games) hitting his stride, and veteran Panther defense had extra week to

   prepare for Navy’s tricky triple-option.

   (07-Navy 48-PITT 45 (OT)...N.26-25 N.70/331 P.48/227 P.20/28/1/191 N.9/14/0/166 N.0 P.0)

   (07-Navy +4 48-45 (OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 20-13-3)

   MICHIGAN STATE 21 - Ohio State 20—MSU is up to the task, as Spartan

   offense now getting mistake-free production from QB Brian Hoyer (205 ypg

   passing, 5 TDP just 1 int. last 3 games) to balance star Javon Ringer’s running.

   OSU offense working in fits and spurts, as Terrelle Pryor has thrown for just 104

   ypg and 1 TD in last 3 games after making a splash against Troy. Buckeye RB

   Beanie Wells seemed to be suffering effects of lingering toe injury vs. Purdue

   (22 for 94 rushing). TV-ABC

   (07-OHIO ST. 24-Mich. St. 17...O.22-9 O.47/229 M.28/59 O.15/23/1/193 M.12/24/1/126 O.1 M.0)

   (07-OSU -18' 24-17 06-Osu -14 38-7 05-OSU -6' 35-24...SR: Ohio State 26-12)

   TEXAS 30 - Missouri 27—Do or die for Missouri to stay in the national picture.

   So, with Chase Daniel (3 ints. last week!) expected to be more careful,

   anticipate desperation effort from potent Tigers. MU (4-2 L2Ys when getting

   points) will relish the chance to play as an underdog, even though facing

   practically-perfect Colt McCoy (79.4%, 17 TDs, 3 ints.) is never easy. Tigers

   have scored in 23 of 24 Qs TY. (05-Texas -14' 51-20...SR: Texas 15-5)

   VIRGINIA 27 - North Carolina 26—Butch Davis’ young Tar Heels grabbing

   lots of headlines with 5-1 start, as play-making UNC defense (18 takeaways—

   2nd in nation) making things easier. ACC scouts say not to sleep on resurgent

   Virginia, however. Cav soph QB Verica maturing rapidly, healthy sr. RB

   Peerman ripped off two long TDR last week, and fiery sr. LB Sintim (7 sacks)

   sparking defense. Upset possible at Charlottesville, where host UVa has

   covered 14 of last 17 as dog and last 8 at home vs. Heels.

   (07-Va. 22-N. CAR. 20...V.22-20 V.51/197 N.23/60 N.25/38/1/339 V.18/27/0/153 V.0 N.2)

   (07-Va. +3 22-20 06-VA. -6 23-0 05-UNC P 7-5...SR: North Carolina 57-51-4)

   NORTHERN ILLINOIS 28 - Toledo 27—Toledo’s defensive effort in holding

   Michigan to just 1 TD was its best in more than a year, and the Rockets have

   held NIU to 21 and 13 pts. in covering last 2 against the Huskies. Toledo QB

   Opelt completed 33 of 50 passes for 257 YP in upset of Wolverines, and he

   burned NIU for 384 yds. & 4 TDs last season.

   (07-TOLEDO 70-N. Ill. 21...T.35-14 T.59/382 N.32/177 T.26/33/0/430 N.13/27/1/175 T.2 N.2)

   (07-TOLEDO -3' 70-21 06-Toledo +12 17-13 05-Niu +9' 35-17...SR: Toledo 28-7)

   NEVADA 51 - Utah State 24—Perhaps Nevada 2ndary ought to ask Sen.

   Harry Reid for federal bailout assistance after allowing NMSU’s Chase

   Holbrook to torch it for 409 YP last week. But USU doesn’t pose the same threat,

   as Ag QB Borel’s option antics play into hands of Wolf Pack stop unit (7th vs. run).

   Utag “D” ranks 105th, so it should be fun time for Nevada Pistol that’s scored 48 ppg

   last 3 weeks. Chris Ault still 13-3 as Reno chalk since ‘04.

   (07-Nevada 31-UTAH ST. 28...N.27-12 N.57/302 U.34/106 N.15/23/0/170 U.11/19/1/106 N.2 U.1)

   (07-Nevada -7 31-28 06-NEVADA -29 42-0 05-Nevada -9' 30-24...SR: Nevada 14-4)

   Marshall 38 - UAB 30—The main problem (among many) for woeful UAB is

   that its paper-thin defense can’t hold up for 60 minutes, as evidenced by the 42

   unanswered points in 2nd half at Houston last week. A very measured

   recommendation for poor-traveling but deeper Marshall, which has just 2 SU

   wins as true visitor since mid-2004.

   (07-MARSHALL 46-Uab 39...M.27-24 M.33/177 U.25/107 U.27/50/0/389 M.26/36/0/309 M.0 U.0)

   (07-MARSH. -14' 46-39 06-Marsh. +6 31-24 05-MARSH. +3 20-19...SR: Marshall 3-0)

   PENN STATE 37 - Michigan 6—Superior Penn State eager to end Michigan’s

   8-game series win streak. Nittany Lions could get their title shot if they run the

   table, and Joe Paterno certainly won’t let his club look past 2-4 Wolverines prior

   to its trip to Columbus next week. Penn State defense held a much better

   Michigan offense to less than 3 ypc and 170 YP last season. After gaining just

   290 yards in upset loss to Toledo, Wolverine attack might not “dent the dish”

   against this year’s Nittany defense. CABLE TV—ESPN

   (07-MICH. 14-Penn St. 9...M.25-14 M.56/166 P.29/101 M.16/30/1/170 P.15/31/0/169 M.1 P.2)

   (07-MICH. +2' 14-9 06-Mich. -5 17-10 05-MICH. -3' 27-25...SR: Michigan 10-3)

   NEW MEXICO 27 - San Diego State 7—NM’s “O” no smooth-running

   machine, especially with Lobos now juggling QBs (RS frosh Gruner & juco T.

   Smith split snaps at BYU) in absence of injured Donovan Porterie. But we’re not

   brave enough to recommend reeling SDSU, whose lack of a credible ground

   diversion (Aztecs gaining about 18 inches pc the past 2 weeks) makes new juco QB

   Westling a sitting duck for Rocky Long’s blitz packages.

   (07-N. Mex. 20-S. DIEGO ST. 17...N.19-14 S.43/166 N.38/126 N.18/35/2/239 S.18/26/0/133 N.0 S.2)

   (07-Unm -8' 20-17 06-UNM -10' 41-14 05-Unm +3 47-24...SR: San Diego State 20-14)

   Oregon State 36 - WASHINGTON 12—Any takers for winless U-Dub, minus

   Jake Locker for at least another month and with Ty Willingham wondering when

   axe might fall? We’ll pass on the offer, especially since Mike Riley has won &

   covered last four vs. old rival Huskies. The fact Beavs were throwing deep with

   backup QB Canfield while up 59-13 last week vs. WSU makes us even less

   reluctant to lay heavy lumber.

   (07-ORE. ST. 29-Wash. 23...O.18-14 O.55/219 W.31/85 W.16/39/0/249 O.10/22/1/109 O.2 W.1)

   (07-OSU -4' 29-23 06-Osu +9 27-17 05-Osu -3 18-10...SR: Washington 57-31-4)

   *Arkansas 20 - KENTUCKY 21—Now that Arkansas’ sr. QB C. Dick

   (222 YP, 7 different receivers vs. Auburn) getting hang of new HC Petrino’s

   system and versatile 5-7 RB M. Smith (176 YR vs. Auburn; 5.5 ypc, 20 catches

   TY) attracting extra attention, UK will have trouble pulling away from young but

   maturing Hogs, who have positive vibes following stunning upset on The

   Plains. Wildcat run offense still sputtering (3.2 ypc; only 62 YR vs. USC), and

   standout WR Lyons hurting. CABLE TV-ESPNU

   (07-Ky. 42-ARK. 29...K.23-22 A.51/338 K.36/170 K.21/39/0/265 A.13/28/2/157 K.3 A.1)

   (07-Kentucky +7' 42-29...SR: Kentucky 4-2)

   *ARIZONA 30 - California 23—Jeff Tedford’s QB juggling is keeping Ralph

   Barbieri, Tom Tolbert, and the rest of Bay Area sportstalk hosts guessing as to

   who might start for Cal, but fact is that neither Kevin Riley nor Nate Longshore

   (who got the call in last game vs. ASU) inspiring a lot of confidence these days.

   Would rather trust Willie Tuitama & Arizona spread. Wildcats have won &

   covered last 5 at home (win margin 43 ppg TY!).

   (07-CAL. 45-Ariz. 27...22-22 C.38/186 A.20/21 A.42/62/2/309 C.16/30/1/235 C.1 A.2)

   (07-CAL. -14 45-27 06-ARIZ. +13' 24-20 05-CAL. -16 28-0...SR: California 13-12-2)

   *LOUISIANA TECH 34 - Idaho 20—Logging more air miles than Barack

   Obama the past two weeks hasn’t helped La Tech (off long trips to Boise and

   Honolulu) generate much rhythm, or help QB Bennett’s completion percentage

   (now down to 39.1!). Sight of leaky Idaho “D” (allowing 47 ppg) might help, but

   not sure we want to lay inflated price vs. perky Vandal “O” that displayed some

   pop (215 YR & 237 YP) in last week’s cover at Fresno.

   (07-La. Tech 28-IDAHO 16...L.22-17 L.53/211 I.26/67 L.16/26/1/227 I.17/49/3/218 L.2 I.1)

   (07-Tech -3' 28-16 06-Idaho +3 24-14 05-Tech -9 41-38...SR: Louisiana Tech 2-1)

   *COLORADO 31 - Kansas State 24—Colorado 6-1 last 7 as a favorite, but

   Buffs’ offense suffering from attrition in its OL. K-State, meanwhile, saw juco

   RB Logan Dold (21 for 115 YR) provide some balance for jumbo QB Josh

   Freeman (12 TDs, 2 ints. TY; four TD runs last week in 44-30 win at A&M), who

   is getting more time to go downfield than Buff QB Cody Hawkins. CU counting

   on ground game and defense to eke out win.

   (07-KAN. ST. 47-Colo. 20...C.22-20 K.39/249 C.36/188 C.19/41/3/223 K.15/28/0/214 K.0 C.1)

   (07-KSU -5 47-20 06-Ksu +3' 34-21 05-Colo. -7' 23-20...SR: Colorado 43-19-1)

   OKLAHOMA STATE 45 - Baylor 20—Dangerous spot for OSU, as Cowboys

   (6-0 for the first time since 1945) can’t afford to look ahead to Texas game on

   the road next week. Rampaging Oklahoma State has scored 56, 57, 55 & 58 in

   its four home games TY and is 8-0 its last 8 as a DD favorite. Is Baylor’s

   impressive frosh QB Robert Griffin (21 of 24, 278 YP, 2 TDs last week) able to

   carry his proficiency at a tough road site?

   (07-Okla. St. 45-BAY. 14...O.29-19 O.51/343 B.28/83 B.29/40/2/226 O.16/21/0/202 O.0 B.0)

   (07-Osu -14 45-14 06-OSU -16' 66-24 05-BAYLOR -3 44-34...SR: Oklahoma St. 14-12)

   BUFFALO 24 - Army 17—“Back to the future” theme playing quite well these

   days at West Point, as return to option football has resulted in mild Army

   resurgence (2 straight wins and 3 straight covers) and a stat line reminiscent of

   Jim Young & Bob Sutton’s old wishbone teams (318 YR & 0 YP last week vs.

   EMU!). Rampaging FB Mooney can help Black Knights move clock and chains,

   and not sure depressed Buffalo (off back-to-back gut wrenchers) in frame of

   mind to extend margin. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   *SOUTH CAROLINA 23 - Lsu 20—LSU is off its worst defeat since 2002. But no

   guarantee ticked-off Tigers bounce back vs. surging USC, with Spurrier’s own “bailout”

   program working in 24-17 win at Kentucky last week. Switch to hotshot RS

   frosh QB Garcia (10 of 14 for 169 yds., 1 TD) sparked an offense suddenly kneedeep

   at WR. LSU’s green CBs likely chasing again after being toasted by Tebow

   last week. QB Lee’s play-action less effective with star RB Scott (held to 35 YR vs.

   Gators) frustrated by Cocks solid front 7 (3.2 ypc). TV-ESPN

   (07-LSU 28-S. Car. 16...L.19-16 L.50/290 S.27/17 S.19/42/2/244 L.8/20/1/70 L.0 S.1)

   (07-LSU -17' 28-16...SR: LSU 15-2-1)

   *TULSA 52 - Utep 39—With innovative o.c. Malzahn’s torrid Tulsa attack

   producing about a point per minute, Golden Hurricane should eventually

   outdistance UTEP. Still, no big surprise if quick-trigger soph QB Vittatoe (10

   TDP, only 1 int. last 3 games) able to keep Miners (9-3-1 last 13 as visiting dog)

   inside roomy spread.

   (07-UTEP 48-Tulsa 47...T.29-28 T.43/239 U.48/219 T.27/45/2/409 U.23/29/0/351 U.1 T.1)

   (07-UTEP +3 48-47 06-TULSA -14' 30-20 05-UTEP -8' 41-38...SR: Tulsa 9-7)

   *San Jose State 36 - NEW MEXICO STATE 24—Hal Mumme’s Air Raid

   took flight last week at Reno, but don’t believe QB Holbrook (409 YP vs. Wolf

   Pack) & Co. can maintain similar altitude vs. quality San Jose “D” (ranked 13th...not

   bad for a WAC team) and lockdown sr. CBs Owens & Francies. Aggie “D” most

   vulnerable platoon on field and could be easy pickins’ for emerging Spartan QB

   Reed, now getting very comfy with sr. WR Richmond (8 catches last week vs. USU).

   (07-SJS 51-Nms 17...S.23-21 S.44/190 N.25/80 N.30/49/3/318 S.19/31/0/317 S.0 N.1)

   (07-SJS -4 51-17 06-Sjs -6 31-21 05-SJS -7' 27-10...SR: San Jose State 13-2)

   *Houston 45 - SMU 27—June Jones building for future at SMU, while new HC

   Sumlin inherited a top C-USA contender in Houston. Much prefer prolific Coug

   soph QB Keenum (21 TDP, only 5 ints.) to still-learning Mustang true frosh

   Miitchell (17 TDP, but 16 ints.). And even bigger edge to jelling UH rushing

   attack over Ponies’ punchless ground forces (just 51 ypg!).

   (07-HOU. 38-Smu 28...H.32-20 H.60/264 S.29/109 S.19/33/1/351 H.20/30/0/288 H.1 S.3)

   (07-HOUSTON -19' 38-28 06-Houston -3' 37-27 05-Smu +12' 29-24...SR: Houston 13-9-1)

   *ILLINOIS 42 - Indiana 19—The wheels have come off of Bill Lynch’s

   Hoosiers. An 0-5 spread mark is directly attributable to a defense that’s

   yielded 136 pts. in the last 4 games. Illinois has been much steadier on

   defense, and Illini QB Juice Williams has 772 YP with 4 TDs and just 1 int. in

   the last 2 games. Contrast that with Indiana QB Kellen Lewis’ marks of 925

   yds., 5 TDs and 5 ints. for the season.

   (07-Ill. 27-IND. 14...In.26-23 Il.55/288 In.35/134 In.26/52/1/263 Il.13/28/2/98 Il.1 In.3)

   (07-Ill. -2' 27-14 06-Ind. +8 34-32 05-IND. -6' 36-13...SR: Illinois 42-20-3)

   *Air Force 31 - UNLV 20—There’s a little more pizzazz to the Air Force triple

   option now that true frosh QB Tim Jefferson (started vs. SDSU) & RB Asher

   Clark (109 YR vs. Aztecs) adding extra pop to Falcon attack. Meanwhile, it’s

   looking like deja vu at UNLV, as dynamics hauntingly similar for Rebs as they were

   the last three seasons when each campaign went spinning out of control following

   loss to rival Nevada. AFA 13-4 vs. spread since HC Troy Calhoun arrived LY!

   (07-A. FORCE 31-Unlv 14...U.26-15 A.42/309 U.47/184 U.24/39/0/287 A.9/14/0/123 A.2 U.1)

   (07-AFA -5' 31-14 06-UNLV +10' 42-39 05-AFA -13' 42-7...SR: Air Force 9-4)

   UCLA 27 - Stanford 20—UCLA not generating many style points these days, but

   juco QB Craft finally showing signs of grasping o.c. Norm Chow’s playbook. And not

   sure how much variation there will be in Stanford “O” this week if QB Pritchard

   (concussion vs. Arizona) can’t make post, as the Tree opted for pure smashmouth

   style with backups Forcier & Loukas in lineup vs. Wildcats. Note that Bruins on 3-

   game cover streak, and now a rather tidy 67% play vs. line (36-18!) last 4+ years.

   (07-Ucla 45-STAN. 17...U.24-21 U.50/338 S.26/52 S.27/59/0/331 U.16/29/0/286 U.0 S.1)

   (07-Ucla -16' 45-17 06-UCLA -23' 31-0 05-Ucla -7 30-27 (OT)...SR: UCLA 44-31-3)

   ADDED GAMES

   WESTERN KENTUCKY 24 - Florida Atlantic 20—Since a rare pre-game

   tirade from FAU’s venerable HC Schnellenberger couldn’t motivate

   underachieving 1-5 Owl squad in 30-17 home loss vs. Troy, won’t lay any points

   vs. hard-trying WKU, which amassed 353 yds. in 24-7 loss vs. ranked Ball State.

   If Toppers competent 6-2 sr. QB Wolke can do better job in red zone, this one

   decided late. (FIRST MEETING)

   LOUISVILLE 30 - Middle Tennessee State 21—Retooling Louisville defense

   gave up 481 yards at Memphis last week, but resourceful Cards scored TDs on

   fumble, interception, and blocked-FG returns to upend Tigers. Can’t count on much

   from containable Middle Tennessee offense (only 17 ppg), but Blue Raiders play

   enough defense to hang around host L’ville, which is just 1-6 last 7 as home chalk.

   (07-LVL. 58-Mtsu 42...L.35-20 L.53/328 M.29/265 L.25/39/0/401 M.14/26/2/290 L.1 M.2)

   (07-LOUISVILLE -40 58-42 06-Louisville -31 44-17 at Nashville...SR: Louisville 2-0)

   *LA.-MONROE 48 - North Texas 24—We’d almost rather be investing in

   stocks than in helpless UNT, whose “D” continues on a near point-per-minute

   pace (53.3 ppg!). A chance for QB Lancaster & ULM “O” to take out frustrations

   after rough scheduling stretch, and note how Warhawks began late-season

   rallies at just this time past 2 years (11-1 vs. line last 6 of season in ‘06-07).

   (07-N. TEX. 31-La.-Mon. 21...L.22-17 N.39/171 L.40/130 L.21/45/3/291 N.16/30/1/202 N.1 L.0)

   (07-NTU +7' 31-21 06-ULM -7 23-3 05-Ulm -4' 24-19...SR: EVEN 12-12)

   *LA.-LAFAYETTE 36 - Arkansas State 21—In key Sun Belt clash, favor

   revenge-minded ULL, which has been a steamrolling machine on ground TY

   (nation-leading 331 ypg; 7.6 ypc). Ragin’ Cagun’s dangerous dual-threat QB

   Desormeaux took LY’s 31-pt. blowout loss personally after generating seasonlow

   8 FDs. ASU just 1-8 SU last 9 away, and host has covered 3 straight in

   series. Only second home game for ULL (5 straight covers!).

   (07-ARK. ST. 52-La.-Laf. 21...A.33-8 A.62/406 L.27/133 A.17/23/0/275 L.7/20/0/137 A.1 L.0)

   (07-ASU -9 52-21 06-ULL -6 28-13 05-ASU -11 39-36...SR: La.-Lafayette 18-17-1)

   *TROY 26 - Florida Intl. 22—Troy’s status as team to beat in Sun Belt a bit iffy

   after season-ending knee injury to QB Hampton, thrusting little-used RS soph

   Tanner Jones into starting role. Meanwhile, emerging FIU continues to prove

   recent wins (3 in a row!) no fluke, as QB McCall & Golden Panthers (37 ppg last

   3!) getting hang of new o.c. Bill Legg’s spread attack.

   (07-Troy 34-FLA. INTL. 16...T.25-15 T.39/299 F.34/81 F.19/41/2/248 T.24/39/0/195 T.0 F.0)

   (07-Troy -18' 34-16 06-Troy -10' 26-13 05-TROY -9 18-13...SR: Troy 4-0)

   TUESDAY, OCTOBER 21

   *TEMPLE vs. Ohio—Check http://www.goldsheet.com [goldsheet.com]">www.goldsheet.com on game day for our

   analysis of this one. CABLE TV—ESPN2

   (07-OHIO 23-Temple 7...O.21-13 O.49/219 T.31/48 O.14/21/0/185 T.17/26/1/161 O.0 T.1)

   (07-OHIO -9 23-7...SR: Ohio 1-0)

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 14 2008 3:06pm
6. 0 likes

   THE GOLD SHEET

   VOLUME 52 OCTOBER 16-20, 2008 NO. 8

   COLLEGE ANALYSIS

   KEY RELEASES

   IOWA by 14 over Wisconsin

   ARKANSAS Plus over Kentucky

   SAN JOSE STATE by 12 over New Mexico State

   LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 15 over Arkansas State

   THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16

   *Florida State 24 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 19—Seminoles have won &

   covered two straight, as FSU offense (540 YR in last 2 games!) starting to

   pound the rock. Special game for well-liked ‘Nole assistant coach & deposed

   former N.C. State mentor Amato. Still, inclined to take points with host &

   resourceful RS frosh QB R. Wilson (3 TDP, 2 TDR, no ints. in his last 2 games).

   Insiders say injured LB Irving & DT Cash likely back in action for speedy

   Wolfpack defense. CABLE TV—ESPN

   (07-FLA. ST. 27-N. Car. St. 10...19-19 F.35/124 N.34/96 F.16/28/0/257 N.19/32/3/172 F.0 N.1)

   (07-FSU -18 27-10 06-NCS +10 24-20 05-Ncs +12' 20-15...SR: Florida State 19-9)

   *TCU 26 - Byu 20—The difference in the “BCS Buster” candidacies of these

   two is the fact TCU has had to face (and lose to) Oklahoma, and BYU hasn’t had

   a similar test. But d.c. Dick Bumpas’ hot-pursuing, top-ranked Frog defense

   might prove an effective weapon vs. QB Max Hall and high-powered Cougar

   attack. Not convinced BYU “D” as good as its numbers suggest after steady

   diet of impotent opposition. TCU loses little with backup QB Jackson (who has

   led back-to-back wins) in lineup, and Frogs very tough to beat in Fort Worth (18-

   2 SU, 14-4 vs. line as host since ‘05)!

   (07-BYU 27-Tcu 22...T.22-19 T.39/130 B.34/112 B.26/44/1/305 T.24/37/1/222 B.1 T.0)

   (07-BYU -7 27-22 06-Byu +5' 31-17 05-Tcu +3' 51-50 (OT)...SR: BYU 5-2)

   FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17

   *BOISE STATE 41 - Hawaii 10—UH progressing under new HC McMackin.

   But won’t be dissuaded from supporting hopeful BCS-buster BSU, playing

   ferocious defense (no TD last 8 Qs!) to complement an always well-designed,

   fluid attack. Broncos highly-accurate RS frosh QB K. Moore (72%, 10 TDs, 3

   ints.) has the diverse weaponry to exploit undersized Warrior defense that’s

   allowed 101 combined pts. vs. the top two attacks it has faced (Florida &

   Oregon State). Fast-starting BSU has outscored opponents 117-23 in 1st H.

   CABLE TV—ESPN

   (07-HAWAII 39-Boise St. 27...H.33-19 B.35/101 H.24/79 H.40/53/2/495 B.22/37/1/231 H.0 B.1)

   (07-HAWAII -3 39-27 06-BSU -14' 41-34 05-Bsu -10' 44-41...SR: Boise State 6-3)

   SATURDAY, OCTOBER 18

   Connecticut 26 - RUTGERS 19—Scouts very skeptical that 1-5 Scarlet

   Knights will be able to pull out of tailspin in second half of season. Punchless

   Rutgers offense (just 13 ppg in first 5 vs. FBS foes) dearly misses departed star

   RB Ray Rice, while visiting UConn owns nation’s leading rusher in jr. Donald

   Brown (178 ypg).

   (07-CONN. 38-Rut. 19...R.29-18 C.39/256 R.33/168 R.32/54/1/343 C.10/21/0/140 C.0 R.0)

   (07-CONN. -1 38-19 06-RUTGERS -19' 24-13 05-Rutgers -3' 26-24...SR: Conn. 4-2)

   Wake Forest 17 - MARYLAND 13—It might be best just to stay away from

   games involving bipolar Maryland, as divining what kind of effort to expect out

   of schizophrenic Terps from week to week a crapshoot at best. Wake offense

   (just 3 TDs, 8 FGs in last 3 games) struggling in red zone, but very veteran Deacon

   defense (eight 5th-year seniors!) is the most dependable platoon on field.

   (07-WF 31-Md. 24 (OT)...19-19 M.57/200 W.41/178 W.22/35/3/219 M.11/20/1/115 W.1 M.2)

   (07-WFU -3' 31-24 (OT) 06-Wfu +1' 38-24 05-Mary. +2 22-12...SR: Maryland 40-15-1)

   Georgia Tech 23 - CLEMSON 16—With pressure building on HC Tommy

   Bowden, troubled Tigers switching to RS frosh Willy Korn at QB. The touted

   Korn’s considerable mobility figures to come in handy vs. swarming Yellow

   Jackets (4-0 vs. spread), as young, patchwork Clemson OL vs. Tech’s topnotch

   DL looks like a MAJOR mismatch. Scouts say not to read too much into

   Jackets’ close call vs. Gardner-Webb last week (see Special Ticker). CABLE

   TV-ESPN2

   (07-GA. TECH 13-Clem. 3...G.14-5 G.46/189 C.32/34 C.17/39/1/194 G.7/16/1/67 G.1 C.1)

   (07-TECH +3 13-3 06-CLEM. -7 31-7 05-TECH -2' 10-9...SR: Georgia Tech 46-24-2)

   EAST CAROLINA 33 - Memphis 31—Poor Pirates need a hug after rising

   into nation’s top 15 during first few weeks, only to plummet down rankings with

   3 straight losses. ECU should find enough holes in improving (but still

   vulnerable) Memphis defense to get back in win column. But potent Tigers capable

   of trading points behind juco QB Hall (61%, 559 YP, 6 TDP last 2 games).

   (07-E. Car. 56-MEMP. 40...24-24 E.44/491 M.28/77 M.34/61/2/416 E.12/26/0/150 E.0 M.0)

   (07-Ecu -5' 56-40 06-ECU -2' 35-20 05-MEMPHIS -7' 27-24...SR: East Carolina 10-6)

   DUKE 24 - Miami-Florida 23—Hurricanes’ defense is banged up, and their

   offense (just 216 yards in home win over UCF) clearly a work in progress. Big

   experience edge for Duke jr. QB Lewis (28 TDP, only 13 ints. last 1+ seasons)

   over still-maturing RS frosh Miami counterpart Marve (7 ints. last 3 games).

   Extra week of prep helps crafty new HC Cutcliffe & his blossoming Blue Devils

   spring upset. CABLE TV-ESPNU

   (07-MIAMI 24-Duke 14...M.21-17 M.37/185 D.37/61 M.20/25/2/245 D.18/27/0/241 M.0 D.2)

   (07-MIAMI -24 24-14 06-Miami -18 20-15 05-MIAMI -35' 52-7...SR: Miami-Florida 4-1)

   *Virginia Tech 19 - BOSTON COLLEGE 13—New BC QB Crane’s shaky

   confidence bolstered by his 428 YP & 5 TDs (2 pass, 3 rush) during Eagle win

   at N.C. State. However, he’ll find going MUCH tougher against consistently

   obdurate Hokie stop unit that’s begrudged foes fewer than 14 ppg over last 4+

   seasons. BC’s stout front 7 does match up well against run-oriented Hokie

   attack, but wouldn’t buck wily old Tech mentor Beamer (17-3 vs. spread last 20

   as true visitor!) in anticipated defensive struggle. TV-ESPN2

   (07-Bos. Col. 14-VA. TECH 10...B.19-15 V.41/116 B.18/32 B.25/53/2/285 V.15/25/0/149 B.0 V.2)

   (07-Va. Tech 30-BOS. COL. 16...B.24-22 V.36/98 B.25/84 B.33/52/2/305 V.21/33/1/202 V.1 B.0)

   (07-Bc +3 14-10, Tech -4' 30-16 06-BC +2' 22-3 05-TECH -13' 30-10...SR: Va. Tech 9-6)

   SOUTH FLORIDA 42 - Syracuse 10—Host Bulls will be snorting fire after

   having an extra week to stew over rare home loss to Pitt. Meanwhile, hanging

   around at Pat White-less West Virginia definitely not a buy sign for sad-sack

   Syracuse.

   (07-Usf 41-SYRACUSE 10...U.26-14 U.56/346 S.17/15 S.21/38/2/276 U.19/28/1/236 U.0 S.2)

   (07-Usf -17' 41-10 06-USF -10 27-10 05-Usf -7' 27-0...SR: South Florida 3-0)

   IOWA 27 - Wisconsin 13—A tale of two QBs, as Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi is

   making solid progress and minimizing mistakes, while Wisconsin’s Allan

   Evridge has regressed to the point he only completed 2 passes against Penn

   State and has probably lost his job to Dustin Sherer (career 11 of 22, 2 ints., no

   TDPs). Hawkeyes own the better defense, and RB Shonn Greene is 6th in the

   nation in rushing (134 ypg). A win here key to Iowa bowl hopes.

   (07-WIS. 17-Iowa 13...W.17-13 W.49/166 I.26/59 I.17/37/0/169 W.12/23/1/138 W.2 I.0)

   (07-WIS. -7' 17-13 06-Wis. -1' 24-21 05-Iowa +2' 20-10...SR: Wisconsin 41-40-2)

   NORTHWESTERN 30 - Purdue 22—Not sure if Purdue QB Painter did

   enough against Ohio State to retain his starting job, but his performance at the

   Shoe wasn’t any worse than C.J. Bacher’s effort at home in loss to Michigan

   State. Wildcat RB Sutton had 139 YR vs. the Spartans, and he gives NW a little

   consistency absent on Boilers. TV-ESPN

   (07-PURDUE 35-N’western 17...N.20-19 P.38/220 N.29/89 N.20/39/3/208 P.24/38/0/182 P.0 N.1)

   (07-PURDUE -13 35-17 06-Purdue -7 31-10 05-Nwu +7' 34-29...SR: Purdue 49-25-1)

   OKLAHOMA 40 - Kansas 17—During KU’s wonderful 12-1 campaign of

   2007, the Jayhawks did not have to face the powers of the Big XII South on the

   road. Now KU does. Neither team is running as well as it would like, but OU

   strikes “sooner” (110-6 in the first Q TY) with its big-play aerial game, while KU

   must usually be content to chip away. Sooners disappointed after last week,

   but they’re 11-3-1 vs. the spread their last 15 at home. Jayhawks’ 3-0 dog mark

   L1+Ys duly noted. (05-Oklahoma -6' 19-3...SR: Oklahoma 66-27-6)

   BOWLING GREEN 37 - Miami-Ohio 24—Miami has dropped 7 of last 8 SU,

   and QB Raudabaugh has completed just 22 of 41 passes for 180 yards and 0

   TDs in last 2 games. Conversely, BG triggerman Sheehan has thrown for 831

   yds., with 7 TDs and just 1 int. in the last 3 games. RedHawk pass “D” doesn’t bring

   much pressure & ranks 108th in efficiency.

   (07-MIAMI 47-B. Green 14...M.26-14 M.53/262 B.26/25 M.16/24/0/237 B.19/32/1/207 M.1 B.2)

   (07-MIAMI -1 47-14 06-Miami +4 9-7 05-Bgu +9 42-14...SR: Bowling Green 35-24-5)

   Western Michigan 37 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35—In a battle of the two best

   QBs in the MAC, favor WMU’s Tim Hiller a bit over reigning league MVP Dan

   LeFevour. Hiller is having a slightly better season, as he’s completed 68% with

   23 TDs and just 5 ints., compared with LeFevour’s 65%, 9 TDs & 3 ints.

   Broncos have an edge running (jr. RB Brandon West 90 ypg rushing) and

   defensively, and Chips just 1 cover last 6 vs. WMU.

   (07-C. Mich. 34-W. MICH. 31...C.22-21 C.43/149 W.35/107 W.27/37/1/311 C.23/38/1/235 C.1 W.0)

   (07-Cmu -3 34-31 06-CMU -6 31-7 05-WMU -2' 31-24...SR: Western Michigan 43-33-2)

   Nebraska 23 - IOWA STATE 20—Even though ISU disappointed in 38-10

   loss last week at Baylor, coach Gene Chizik is forming a useful young nucleus

   of 6-3 soph QB Arnaud, 5-10 soph RB A. Robinson, and 6-3 jr. WR M. Hamilton.

   Cornhuskers refused to cave in last week at Texas Tech, but they’ve covered

   just two of their last ten on the road and lack the power ground game to give

   them physical control as in the past.

   (07-NEB. 35-Iowa St. 17...I.28-17 I.51/134 N.30/130 I.26/51/3/281 N.19/29/1/239 N.2 I.1)

   (07-NEB. -21 35-17 06-Neb. -7 28-14 05-NEB. -3' 27-20 (OT)...SR: Nebraska 84-16-2)

   *TENNESSEE 20 - Mississippi State 16—Vexed Vols off to their worst SEC

   start since 1988. But with UT ground game coming to a grinding halt (1 net yd.

   in 15 carries vs. UGA), doubt raw QB Stephens able to compensate vs.

   aggressive MSU defense that limited Vandy to just 107 yds. Bulldogs careful jr.

   QB T. Lee (no int. in 65 passes) has time to find favorite target 6-4 WR McRae

   (19 catches last 3 games), since Vol DL applying little pressure (10th in SEC in

   sacks). Croom’s troops 8-3-1 as road dog since ‘06.

   (07-Tenn. 33-MISS. ST. 21...M.18-14 T.42/211 M.36/135 T.22/36/1/259 M.18/33/0/203 T.0 M.0)

   (07-Tennessee -7 33-21...SR: Tennessee 27-15-1)

   ALABAMA 26 - Mississippi 21—Since resurgent Ole Miss has been fiercelycompetitive

   in every game, generous points should work with Rebels, who’ve

   given Bama fits in past 3 outings (see Looking for an Angle). If Ole Miss

   minimizes mistakes (15 giveaways so far), Rebels strong-armed QB Snead

   (1272 YP) & his speedy WRs well-equipped to stretch Bama defense. Doubt

   Tide’s preferred smashmouth tactics overwhelm a now-healthy, formidable Ole

   Miss DL (allowing 3.3. ypc). HC Nutt 2-0 as a dog TY, while Bama bankrolldepleting

   3-16 as Tuscaloosa chalk since 05. TV-CBS

   (07-Ala. 27-MISS. 24...A.27-19 M.31/136 A.40/113 M.22/40/3/284 A.26/40/1/265 A.1 M.0)

   (07-Ala. -6' 27-24 06-ALA. -16 26-23 (OT) 05-Ala. -13' 13-10...SR: Alabama 44-9-2)

   GEORGIA 27 - Vanderbilt 17—Though previously undefeated Vandy finally

   tossed in a clinker in 17-14 setback in Starkville (season-high 10 penalties) still

   interested in even-keeled ‘Dores, who’ve covered 5 straight as an underdog.

   Vandy owns the defensive speed & athleticism (16 ppg, 11 ints.) to contain

   Georgia, as it has L2Ys. Capable Dore QBs Nickson and/or Adams do some

   business vs. young UGA 2ndary (ranked 11th in SEC) after generating a paltry

   65 YP vs. Miss. State. UGA just 3-8 as DD Athens chalk since ‘05.

   (07-Ga. 20-VANDY 17...G.17-14 V.38/179 G.35/167 G.16/31/0/201 V.9/15/0/131 G.0 V.2)

   (07-Georgia -7 20-17 06-Vandy +14 24-22 05-Georgia -16 34-17...SR: Georgia 48-18-2)

   Akron 31 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 30—Hard to recommend EMU, as Eagles

   have covered just once this season and allow 207 ypg rushing, but Akron is in

   even worse shape defensively. Yielding just 38 points in last two games (both

   on the road) shows EMU capable of at least competing defensively, and

   emergence of soph RB Dwayne Priest (118 YR at Army) helps take pressure off

   QB Schmitt.

   (DNP...SR: Akron 15-10)

   UTAH 37 - Colorado State 9—MWC scouts admit that CSU better than

   expected. But fundamentals a bit troubling for Rams, whose “O” slowed to a

   crawl last week vs. TCU when Frogs took away RB Gartrell Johnson’s ground

   threat and forced HC Fairchild to switch to backup QB Kubiak in hope of igniting

   attack (it didn’t work). Utah’s 8th-ranked rush “D” can do much the same, and

   Utes (8-3 last 1 laying DDs) have KO power.

   (07-Utah 27-COLO. ST. 3...U.24-17 U.49/322 C.34/135 C.16/28/1/140 U.14/22/1/130 U.1 C.0)

   (07-Utah -5' 27-3 06-UTAH -12 35-22 05-CSU -4' 21-17...SR: Utah 30-17-2)

   Texas Tech 37 - TEXAS A&M 20—For the sixth time in six games TY, Texas

   Tech rushed for more than 100 yards! While that improved ground game has

   helped balance the Red Raider offense, it has somewhat cut into the customary

   dizzying stats of QB Graham Harrell (“only” 20 TDP so far). The A&M defense

   still porous, but Mike Sherman’s development of 6-5 soph QB Jerrod Johnson

   (68 YR, school-record 419 YP last week) continues to impress despite Aggies’

   1-5 spread mark.

   (07-TEX. TECH 35-Tex. A&M 7...T.25-20 A.43/233 T.29/108 T.30/37/0/425 A.17/30/1/133 T.1 A.0)

   (07-TECH -9' 35-7 06-Tech +2' 31-27 05-TECH -15 56-17...SR: Texas A&M 34-31-1)

   RICE 44 - Southern Miss 37—Revenge-minded Southern Miss hungry for

   victory after dropping last 3 games, and new HC Fedora’s fledgling Eagle attack

   should find substantial updraft facing yielding Rice defense. Still, USM’s own stop

   unit is down TY, so irrepressible Owl sr. QB Clement (66 TDP last 2+ seasons)

   most likely to fire decisive scoring shots.

   (07-Rice 31-s. MISS 29...S.21-14 S.37/189 R.41/169 S.25/45/4/233 R.9/21/1/67 R.1 S.3)

   (07-Rice +20' 31-29...SR: Rice 1-0)

   Southern Cal 59 - WASHINGTON STATE 7—Al Roker might as well be

   giving the forecast these days for bedraggled Wazzu, as “cloudy with highs in

   the 60s” takes on a new connotation with Cougs (who have already allowed 60+

   three times!). And yet another QB injury (latest starter Lobbestael out a month)

   has Paul Wulff praying that one-time starter Lopina can recover quickly. Final

   margin depends solely upon Pete Carroll’s compassion.

   (07-S. CAL 47-Wash. St. 14...S.28-15 S.35/207 W.27/64 S.30/38/2/302 W.21/43/1/183 S.0 W.0)

   (07-USC -25 47-14 06-Usc -16' 28-22 05-USC -29' 55-13...SR: Southern Cal 55-8-4)

   Pittsburgh 29 - NAVY 22—Usually reluctant to go against money-making

   Middies (43-25-1 vs. spread last 69 on board!), as new HC Niumatalolo (3

   straight covers) has continued former boss Paul Johnson’s profitable ways.

   Fundamentals not bad for Pitt, however, as star soph RB McCoy (291 YR in last

   2 games) hitting his stride, and veteran Panther defense had extra week to

   prepare for Navy’s tricky triple-option.

   (07-Navy 48-PITT 45 (OT)...N.26-25 N.70/331 P.48/227 P.20/28/1/191 N.9/14/0/166 N.0 P.0)

   (07-Navy +4 48-45 (OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 20-13-3)

   MICHIGAN STATE 21 - Ohio State 20—MSU is up to the task, as Spartan

   offense now getting mistake-free production from QB Brian Hoyer (205 ypg

   passing, 5 TDP just 1 int. last 3 games) to balance star Javon Ringer’s running.

   OSU offense working in fits and spurts, as Terrelle Pryor has thrown for just 104

   ypg and 1 TD in last 3 games after making a splash against Troy. Buckeye RB

   Beanie Wells seemed to be suffering effects of lingering toe injury vs. Purdue

   (22 for 94 rushing). TV-ABC

   (07-OHIO ST. 24-Mich. St. 17...O.22-9 O.47/229 M.28/59 O.15/23/1/193 M.12/24/1/126 O.1 M.0)

   (07-OSU -18' 24-17 06-Osu -14 38-7 05-OSU -6' 35-24...SR: Ohio State 26-12)

   TEXAS 30 - Missouri 27—Do or die for Missouri to stay in the national picture.

   So, with Chase Daniel (3 ints. last week!) expected to be more careful,

   anticipate desperation effort from potent Tigers. MU (4-2 L2Ys when getting

   points) will relish the chance to play as an underdog, even though facing

   practically-perfect Colt McCoy (79.4%, 17 TDs, 3 ints.) is never easy. Tigers

   have scored in 23 of 24 Qs TY. (05-Texas -14' 51-20...SR: Texas 15-5)

   VIRGINIA 27 - North Carolina 26—Butch Davis’ young Tar Heels grabbing

   lots of headlines with 5-1 start, as play-making UNC defense (18 takeaways—

   2nd in nation) making things easier. ACC scouts say not to sleep on resurgent

   Virginia, however. Cav soph QB Verica maturing rapidly, healthy sr. RB

   Peerman ripped off two long TDR last week, and fiery sr. LB Sintim (7 sacks)

   sparking defense. Upset possible at Charlottesville, where host UVa has

   covered 14 of last 17 as dog and last 8 at home vs. Heels.

   (07-Va. 22-N. CAR. 20...V.22-20 V.51/197 N.23/60 N.25/38/1/339 V.18/27/0/153 V.0 N.2)

   (07-Va. +3 22-20 06-VA. -6 23-0 05-UNC P 7-5...SR: North Carolina 57-51-4)

   NORTHERN ILLINOIS 28 - Toledo 27—Toledo’s defensive effort in holding

   Michigan to just 1 TD was its best in more than a year, and the Rockets have

   held NIU to 21 and 13 pts. in covering last 2 against the Huskies. Toledo QB

   Opelt completed 33 of 50 passes for 257 YP in upset of Wolverines, and he

   burned NIU for 384 yds. & 4 TDs last season.

   (07-TOLEDO 70-N. Ill. 21...T.35-14 T.59/382 N.32/177 T.26/33/0/430 N.13/27/1/175 T.2 N.2)

   (07-TOLEDO -3' 70-21 06-Toledo +12 17-13 05-Niu +9' 35-17...SR: Toledo 28-7)

   NEVADA 51 - Utah State 24—Perhaps Nevada 2ndary ought to ask Sen.

   Harry Reid for federal bailout assistance after allowing NMSU’s Chase

   Holbrook to torch it for 409 YP last week. But USU doesn’t pose the same threat,

   as Ag QB Borel’s option antics play into hands of Wolf Pack stop unit (7th vs. run).

   Utag “D” ranks 105th, so it should be fun time for Nevada Pistol that’s scored 48 ppg

   last 3 weeks. Chris Ault still 13-3 as Reno chalk since ‘04.

   (07-Nevada 31-UTAH ST. 28...N.27-12 N.57/302 U.34/106 N.15/23/0/170 U.11/19/1/106 N.2 U.1)

   (07-Nevada -7 31-28 06-NEVADA -29 42-0 05-Nevada -9' 30-24...SR: Nevada 14-4)

   Marshall 38 - UAB 30—The main problem (among many) for woeful UAB is

   that its paper-thin defense can’t hold up for 60 minutes, as evidenced by the 42

   unanswered points in 2nd half at Houston last week. A very measured

   recommendation for poor-traveling but deeper Marshall, which has just 2 SU

   wins as true visitor since mid-2004.

   (07-MARSHALL 46-Uab 39...M.27-24 M.33/177 U.25/107 U.27/50/0/389 M.26/36/0/309 M.0 U.0)

   (07-MARSH. -14' 46-39 06-Marsh. +6 31-24 05-MARSH. +3 20-19...SR: Marshall 3-0)

   PENN STATE 37 - Michigan 6—Superior Penn State eager to end Michigan’s

   8-game series win streak. Nittany Lions could get their title shot if they run the

   table, and Joe Paterno certainly won’t let his club look past 2-4 Wolverines prior

   to its trip to Columbus next week. Penn State defense held a much better

   Michigan offense to less than 3 ypc and 170 YP last season. After gaining just

   290 yards in upset loss to Toledo, Wolverine attack might not “dent the dish”

   against this year’s Nittany defense. CABLE TV—ESPN

   (07-MICH. 14-Penn St. 9...M.25-14 M.56/166 P.29/101 M.16/30/1/170 P.15/31/0/169 M.1 P.2)

   (07-MICH. +2' 14-9 06-Mich. -5 17-10 05-MICH. -3' 27-25...SR: Michigan 10-3)

   NEW MEXICO 27 - San Diego State 7—NM’s “O” no smooth-running

   machine, especially with Lobos now juggling QBs (RS frosh Gruner & juco T.

   Smith split snaps at BYU) in absence of injured Donovan Porterie. But we’re not

   brave enough to recommend reeling SDSU, whose lack of a credible ground

   diversion (Aztecs gaining about 18 inches pc the past 2 weeks) makes new juco QB

   Westling a sitting duck for Rocky Long’s blitz packages.

   (07-N. Mex. 20-S. DIEGO ST. 17...N.19-14 S.43/166 N.38/126 N.18/35/2/239 S.18/26/0/133 N.0 S.2)

   (07-Unm -8' 20-17 06-UNM -10' 41-14 05-Unm +3 47-24...SR: San Diego State 20-14)

   Oregon State 36 - WASHINGTON 12—Any takers for winless U-Dub, minus

   Jake Locker for at least another month and with Ty Willingham wondering when

   axe might fall? We’ll pass on the offer, especially since Mike Riley has won &

   covered last four vs. old rival Huskies. The fact Beavs were throwing deep with

   backup QB Canfield while up 59-13 last week vs. WSU makes us even less

   reluctant to lay heavy lumber.

   (07-ORE. ST. 29-Wash. 23...O.18-14 O.55/219 W.31/85 W.16/39/0/249 O.10/22/1/109 O.2 W.1)

   (07-OSU -4' 29-23 06-Osu +9 27-17 05-Osu -3 18-10...SR: Washington 57-31-4)

   *Arkansas 20 - KENTUCKY 21—Now that Arkansas’ sr. QB C. Dick

   (222 YP, 7 different receivers vs. Auburn) getting hang of new HC Petrino’s

   system and versatile 5-7 RB M. Smith (176 YR vs. Auburn; 5.5 ypc, 20 catches

   TY) attracting extra attention, UK will have trouble pulling away from young but

   maturing Hogs, who have positive vibes following stunning upset on The

   Plains. Wildcat run offense still sputtering (3.2 ypc; only 62 YR vs. USC), and

   standout WR Lyons hurting. CABLE TV-ESPNU

   (07-Ky. 42-ARK. 29...K.23-22 A.51/338 K.36/170 K.21/39/0/265 A.13/28/2/157 K.3 A.1)

   (07-Kentucky +7' 42-29...SR: Kentucky 4-2)

   *ARIZONA 30 - California 23—Jeff Tedford’s QB juggling is keeping Ralph

   Barbieri, Tom Tolbert, and the rest of Bay Area sportstalk hosts guessing as to

   who might start for Cal, but fact is that neither Kevin Riley nor Nate Longshore

   (who got the call in last game vs. ASU) inspiring a lot of confidence these days.

   Would rather trust Willie Tuitama & Arizona spread. Wildcats have won &

   covered last 5 at home (win margin 43 ppg TY!).

   (07-CAL. 45-Ariz. 27...22-22 C.38/186 A.20/21 A.42/62/2/309 C.16/30/1/235 C.1 A.2)

   (07-CAL. -14 45-27 06-ARIZ. +13' 24-20 05-CAL. -16 28-0...SR: California 13-12-2)

   *LOUISIANA TECH 34 - Idaho 20—Logging more air miles than Barack

   Obama the past two weeks hasn’t helped La Tech (off long trips to Boise and

   Honolulu) generate much rhythm, or help QB Bennett’s completion percentage

   (now down to 39.1!). Sight of leaky Idaho “D” (allowing 47 ppg) might help, but

   not sure we want to lay inflated price vs. perky Vandal “O” that displayed some

   pop (215 YR & 237 YP) in last week’s cover at Fresno.

   (07-La. Tech 28-IDAHO 16...L.22-17 L.53/211 I.26/67 L.16/26/1/227 I.17/49/3/218 L.2 I.1)

   (07-Tech -3' 28-16 06-Idaho +3 24-14 05-Tech -9 41-38...SR: Louisiana Tech 2-1)

   *COLORADO 31 - Kansas State 24—Colorado 6-1 last 7 as a favorite, but

   Buffs’ offense suffering from attrition in its OL. K-State, meanwhile, saw juco

   RB Logan Dold (21 for 115 YR) provide some balance for jumbo QB Josh

   Freeman (12 TDs, 2 ints. TY; four TD runs last week in 44-30 win at A&M), who

   is getting more time to go downfield than Buff QB Cody Hawkins. CU counting

   on ground game and defense to eke out win.

   (07-KAN. ST. 47-Colo. 20...C.22-20 K.39/249 C.36/188 C.19/41/3/223 K.15/28/0/214 K.0 C.1)

   (07-KSU -5 47-20 06-Ksu +3' 34-21 05-Colo. -7' 23-20...SR: Colorado 43-19-1)

   OKLAHOMA STATE 45 - Baylor 20—Dangerous spot for OSU, as Cowboys

   (6-0 for the first time since 1945) can’t afford to look ahead to Texas game on

   the road next week. Rampaging Oklahoma State has scored 56, 57, 55 & 58 in

   its four home games TY and is 8-0 its last 8 as a DD favorite. Is Baylor’s

   impressive frosh QB Robert Griffin (21 of 24, 278 YP, 2 TDs last week) able to

   carry his proficiency at a tough road site?

   (07-Okla. St. 45-BAY. 14...O.29-19 O.51/343 B.28/83 B.29/40/2/226 O.16/21/0/202 O.0 B.0)

   (07-Osu -14 45-14 06-OSU -16' 66-24 05-BAYLOR -3 44-34...SR: Oklahoma St. 14-12)

   BUFFALO 24 - Army 17—“Back to the future” theme playing quite well these

   days at West Point, as return to option football has resulted in mild Army

   resurgence (2 straight wins and 3 straight covers) and a stat line reminiscent of

   Jim Young & Bob Sutton’s old wishbone teams (318 YR & 0 YP last week vs.

   EMU!). Rampaging FB Mooney can help Black Knights move clock and chains,

   and not sure depressed Buffalo (off back-to-back gut wrenchers) in frame of

   mind to extend margin. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   *SOUTH CAROLINA 23 - Lsu 20—LSU is off its worst defeat since 2002. But no

   guarantee ticked-off Tigers bounce back vs. surging USC, with Spurrier’s own “bailout”

   program working in 24-17 win at Kentucky last week. Switch to hotshot RS

   frosh QB Garcia (10 of 14 for 169 yds., 1 TD) sparked an offense suddenly kneedeep

   at WR. LSU’s green CBs likely chasing again after being toasted by Tebow

   last week. QB Lee’s play-action less effective with star RB Scott (held to 35 YR vs.

   Gators) frustrated by Cocks solid front 7 (3.2 ypc). TV-ESPN

   (07-LSU 28-S. Car. 16...L.19-16 L.50/290 S.27/17 S.19/42/2/244 L.8/20/1/70 L.0 S.1)

   (07-LSU -17' 28-16...SR: LSU 15-2-1)

   *TULSA 52 - Utep 39—With innovative o.c. Malzahn’s torrid Tulsa attack

   producing about a point per minute, Golden Hurricane should eventually

   outdistance UTEP. Still, no big surprise if quick-trigger soph QB Vittatoe (10

   TDP, only 1 int. last 3 games) able to keep Miners (9-3-1 last 13 as visiting dog)

   inside roomy spread.

   (07-UTEP 48-Tulsa 47...T.29-28 T.43/239 U.48/219 T.27/45/2/409 U.23/29/0/351 U.1 T.1)

   (07-UTEP +3 48-47 06-TULSA -14' 30-20 05-UTEP -8' 41-38...SR: Tulsa 9-7)

   *San Jose State 36 - NEW MEXICO STATE 24—Hal Mumme’s Air Raid

   took flight last week at Reno, but don’t believe QB Holbrook (409 YP vs. Wolf

   Pack) & Co. can maintain similar altitude vs. quality San Jose “D” (ranked 13th...not

   bad for a WAC team) and lockdown sr. CBs Owens & Francies. Aggie “D” most

   vulnerable platoon on field and could be easy pickins’ for emerging Spartan QB

   Reed, now getting very comfy with sr. WR Richmond (8 catches last week vs. USU).

   (07-SJS 51-Nms 17...S.23-21 S.44/190 N.25/80 N.30/49/3/318 S.19/31/0/317 S.0 N.1)

   (07-SJS -4 51-17 06-Sjs -6 31-21 05-SJS -7' 27-10...SR: San Jose State 13-2)

   *Houston 45 - SMU 27—June Jones building for future at SMU, while new HC

   Sumlin inherited a top C-USA contender in Houston. Much prefer prolific Coug

   soph QB Keenum (21 TDP, only 5 ints.) to still-learning Mustang true frosh

   Miitchell (17 TDP, but 16 ints.). And even bigger edge to jelling UH rushing

   attack over Ponies’ punchless ground forces (just 51 ypg!).

   (07-HOU. 38-Smu 28...H.32-20 H.60/264 S.29/109 S.19/33/1/351 H.20/30/0/288 H.1 S.3)

   (07-HOUSTON -19' 38-28 06-Houston -3' 37-27 05-Smu +12' 29-24...SR: Houston 13-9-1)

   *ILLINOIS 42 - Indiana 19—The wheels have come off of Bill Lynch’s

   Hoosiers. An 0-5 spread mark is directly attributable to a defense that’s

   yielded 136 pts. in the last 4 games. Illinois has been much steadier on

   defense, and Illini QB Juice Williams has 772 YP with 4 TDs and just 1 int. in

   the last 2 games. Contrast that with Indiana QB Kellen Lewis’ marks of 925

   yds., 5 TDs and 5 ints. for the season.

   (07-Ill. 27-IND. 14...In.26-23 Il.55/288 In.35/134 In.26/52/1/263 Il.13/28/2/98 Il.1 In.3)

   (07-Ill. -2' 27-14 06-Ind. +8 34-32 05-IND. -6' 36-13...SR: Illinois 42-20-3)

   *Air Force 31 - UNLV 20—There’s a little more pizzazz to the Air Force triple

   option now that true frosh QB Tim Jefferson (started vs. SDSU) & RB Asher

   Clark (109 YR vs. Aztecs) adding extra pop to Falcon attack. Meanwhile, it’s

   looking like deja vu at UNLV, as dynamics hauntingly similar for Rebs as they were

   the last three seasons when each campaign went spinning out of control following

   loss to rival Nevada. AFA 13-4 vs. spread since HC Troy Calhoun arrived LY!

   (07-A. FORCE 31-Unlv 14...U.26-15 A.42/309 U.47/184 U.24/39/0/287 A.9/14/0/123 A.2 U.1)

   (07-AFA -5' 31-14 06-UNLV +10' 42-39 05-AFA -13' 42-7...SR: Air Force 9-4)

   UCLA 27 - Stanford 20—UCLA not generating many style points these days, but

   juco QB Craft finally showing signs of grasping o.c. Norm Chow’s playbook. And not

   sure how much variation there will be in Stanford “O” this week if QB Pritchard

   (concussion vs. Arizona) can’t make post, as the Tree opted for pure smashmouth

   style with backups Forcier & Loukas in lineup vs. Wildcats. Note that Bruins on 3-

   game cover streak, and now a rather tidy 67% play vs. line (36-18!) last 4+ years.

   (07-Ucla 45-STAN. 17...U.24-21 U.50/338 S.26/52 S.27/59/0/331 U.16/29/0/286 U.0 S.1)

   (07-Ucla -16' 45-17 06-UCLA -23' 31-0 05-Ucla -7 30-27 (OT)...SR: UCLA 44-31-3)

   ADDED GAMES

   WESTERN KENTUCKY 24 - Florida Atlantic 20—Since a rare pre-game

   tirade from FAU’s venerable HC Schnellenberger couldn’t motivate

   underachieving 1-5 Owl squad in 30-17 home loss vs. Troy, won’t lay any points

   vs. hard-trying WKU, which amassed 353 yds. in 24-7 loss vs. ranked Ball State.

   If Toppers competent 6-2 sr. QB Wolke can do better job in red zone, this one

   decided late. (FIRST MEETING)

   LOUISVILLE 30 - Middle Tennessee State 21—Retooling Louisville defense

   gave up 481 yards at Memphis last week, but resourceful Cards scored TDs on

   fumble, interception, and blocked-FG returns to upend Tigers. Can’t count on much

   from containable Middle Tennessee offense (only 17 ppg), but Blue Raiders play

   enough defense to hang around host L’ville, which is just 1-6 last 7 as home chalk.

   (07-LVL. 58-Mtsu 42...L.35-20 L.53/328 M.29/265 L.25/39/0/401 M.14/26/2/290 L.1 M.2)

   (07-LOUISVILLE -40 58-42 06-Louisville -31 44-17 at Nashville...SR: Louisville 2-0)

   *LA.-MONROE 48 - North Texas 24—We’d almost rather be investing in

   stocks than in helpless UNT, whose “D” continues on a near point-per-minute

   pace (53.3 ppg!). A chance for QB Lancaster & ULM “O” to take out frustrations

   after rough scheduling stretch, and note how Warhawks began late-season

   rallies at just this time past 2 years (11-1 vs. line last 6 of season in ‘06-07).

   (07-N. TEX. 31-La.-Mon. 21...L.22-17 N.39/171 L.40/130 L.21/45/3/291 N.16/30/1/202 N.1 L.0)

   (07-NTU +7' 31-21 06-ULM -7 23-3 05-Ulm -4' 24-19...SR: EVEN 12-12)

   *LA.-LAFAYETTE 36 - Arkansas State 21—In key Sun Belt clash, favor

   revenge-minded ULL, which has been a steamrolling machine on ground TY

   (nation-leading 331 ypg; 7.6 ypc). Ragin’ Cagun’s dangerous dual-threat QB

   Desormeaux took LY’s 31-pt. blowout loss personally after generating seasonlow

   8 FDs. ASU just 1-8 SU last 9 away, and host has covered 3 straight in

   series. Only second home game for ULL (5 straight covers!).

   (07-ARK. ST. 52-La.-Laf. 21...A.33-8 A.62/406 L.27/133 A.17/23/0/275 L.7/20/0/137 A.1 L.0)

   (07-ASU -9 52-21 06-ULL -6 28-13 05-ASU -11 39-36...SR: La.-Lafayette 18-17-1)

   *TROY 26 - Florida Intl. 22—Troy’s status as team to beat in Sun Belt a bit iffy

   after season-ending knee injury to QB Hampton, thrusting little-used RS soph

   Tanner Jones into starting role. Meanwhile, emerging FIU continues to prove

   recent wins (3 in a row!) no fluke, as QB McCall & Golden Panthers (37 ppg last

   3!) getting hang of new o.c. Bill Legg’s spread attack.

   (07-Troy 34-FLA. INTL. 16...T.25-15 T.39/299 F.34/81 F.19/41/2/248 T.24/39/0/195 T.0 F.0)

   (07-Troy -18' 34-16 06-Troy -10' 26-13 05-TROY -9 18-13...SR: Troy 4-0)

   TUESDAY, OCTOBER 21

   *TEMPLE vs. Ohio—Check http://www.goldsheet.com [goldsheet.com]">http://www.goldsheet.com [goldsheet.com]> on game day for our

   analysis of this one. CABLE TV—ESPN2

   (07-OHIO 23-Temple 7...O.21-13 O.49/219 T.31/48 O.14/21/0/185 T.17/26/1/161 O.0 T.1)

   (07-OHIO -9 23-7...SR: Ohio 1-0)

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 14 2008 3:08pm
7. 0 likes

   KEVIN O’NEILL’S

   THE MAX

   The Maximum Profit Football Weekly

   • Volume 9 Issue 9 October 16-20, 2008 •

   Selections for October 16-20, 2008

   College Football

   Saturday, October 18th, 2008

   Virginia Tech (+2½) over @Boston College

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   When Rick Pitino was coaching the Celtics, he delivered an

   infamous quote that got Boston fans all riled up. Pitino

   said: “Larry Bird is not walking through that door, fans.

   Kevin McHale is not walking through that door, and Robert

   Parish is not walking through that door.” And we can

   transfer that to this year’s Boston College Eagles team

   because Matt Ryan is not walking through that door, and

   neither is Gosder Cherilus nor Jamie Silva. Those three

   guys were the backbone of BC football for the past four

   years, but all are now playing on Sunday’s. This year’s

   team hasn’t missed those guys yet, but as they begin the

   meat of their ACC schedule, the Eagles will surely miss

   those three. And it starts in this game with Virginia Tech.

   Boston College has faced a very weak schedule to open

   2008. The Eagles are 4-1 straight up and 3-1 against the

   spread, but those four wins have come against teams with

   a combined 7-19 record. Their loss came against the only

   winning team they’ve faced, Georgia Tech. And it’s of no

   surprise that it was their lowest offensive output of the

   season as they had only 262 yards on a pedestrian 3.4

   yards per play. And we can expect a similar weak

   offensive performance here against the very fast and

   aggressive defense of Virginia Tech. BC’s strength this

   year has been their running game that goes for close to

   200 yards per game on 5 yards per carry. But the sledding

   will be tough here as Tech has been strong at stopping the

   run allowing only 3.7 yards per rush. Their defensive

   weakness is their secondary, but BC will not be able to

   take advantage of that. QB Chris Crane is no Matt Ryan,

   and offensive coordinator Steve Logan, who has never

   seen a passing play he doesn’t like, has run the ball twice

   as much this year compared to ’07. And you can’t blame

   him because the Eagles throwing numbers are awful as

   they’re completing only 56% of their passes for 188 yards

   per game. And those numbers were attained by playing

   weak teams with bad defenses. Don’t expect much

   offense from the Eagles in this game.

   After Virginia Tech lost to East Carolina to open the

   season, they’ve been forgotten about. The Hokies have

   won five straight since including twice winning straight up

   as road underdogs. And when head coach Frank Beamer

   handed the offense over to sophomore quarterback Tyrod

   Taylor, things began to click. Taylor has been more

   accurate in the passing game, but more importantly, his

   mobility takes away potential sacks. The Hokies offensive

   line is great in run blocking but they’ve been bad in pass

   protection allowing 18 sacks thus far. But Taylor’s legs will

   lessen that vulnerability. Tech lost starting running back

   Kenny Lewis to a season ending Achilles injury in their last

   game, but Darren Evans has been outstanding (415 yards

   and 8 TD’s) and he should continue to produce. BC hasn’t

   been favored over Virginia Tech in their last 10 meetings

   (Tech 7-3 straight-up), and with Taylor 9-0 as Tech’s

   starting quarterback, the wrong team is laying points.

   Virginia Tech by 4.

   Georgia Tech (-1) over @Clemson

   Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Georgia Tech was horrendous Saturday. 2-3 1-AA entrant

   Gardner-Webb missed a 44 yard field goal at the gun that

   would have sent the into overtime, allowing Tech to hold

   on 10-7. Incredibly, Tech gained only 199 yards of offense

   against this weak opponent. But there’s a reason for it.

   Josh Nesbitt and Jaybo Shaw were both out with injury.

   You know how intricate the offense is that Paul Johnson

   brought with him from Navy, and you know that the

   Midshipmen used to struggle mightily whenever their

   quarterback got hurt. It would take a while for the backup

   to develop the kind of timing necessary to succeed.

   Obviously the same thing happened at Grant Field

   Saturday. And Tech was being told all week how easy a

   win they were going to have, how easy a win it would be,

   how many guys would be getting playing time, how the

   starters would be rested, etc. etc. Gardner-Webb was a

   replacement for Army, who backed out of a game last fall,

   and clearly nobody took them seriously. It happens, and

   we’re willing to forgive.

   The overwhelming favorite to win the ACC, Clemson is

   having a nightmare season. They are 1-3 against 1-A

   opponents this season. Tommy Bowden has benched last

   year’s ACC player of the year Cullen Harper in favor of

   backup quarterback Willie Korn. Are you kidding? When

   your team with the two future NFL RB’s 156-21 by a Wake

   Forest team that entered the game averaging less than 90

   yards per game on the ground, your classy, professional

   quarterback isn’t he problem. The offensive line has been

   a disaster and the team has no continuity or chemistry.

   And it isn’t a circle the wagons type atmosphere; instead it

   is a finger-pointing extravaganza right now. .

   Nobody can ride herd over a team like Johnson after a bad

   week. The heat will be turned up on the Flats this week

   and the Jackets will be primed for a big performance. Both

   top two quarterbacks are back for Tech this week, and

   Nesbitt will start. This line isn’t anywhere close to what we

   thought it would be heading into the season, but there’s a

   reason for it. Clemson is a mess. Fingers are being

   pointed and coaching futures are being pondered. After

   last week’s near-disaster, Tech will be sharp and ready to

   roll. Georgia Tech by 7.

   KO’s Note: Tommy Bowden, along with offensive

   coordinator Rob Spence, has been fired since this was

   written this morning. Line has moved from Clemson –2 to

   Georgia Tech –1. Willie Korn will still be starting, but he

   will be running the option according to Dabo Swinney, the

   new coach. Could Clemson step up with an inspired

   performance? Maybe. Clemson is completely changing

   their offense in midseason, and will be running it against a

   team that faces the option every day in practice. The

   young offensive linemen need to learn new blocking

   schemes. Receivers coach Swinney is a respected

   assistant, but he’s more a recruiter and program guy than

   a game-planning strategist. Any “new day dawning”

   enthusiasm edge for Clemson is offset by the change,

   Tech’s familiarity with the offense, and the distraction of a

   Clemson team that won’t be able to focus on their

   opponent until very late in the week, if at all..

   Duke (+5) over @Miami (FL)

   Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

   The last two in this series have been very nip and

   tuck with Miami winning both by a combined 15

   points. Two years ago at this site Duke threw in the

   end zone from inside the 10 for the win but was

   intercepted on the game’s final play. This Duke

   team returned 51 lettermen this season, and there is

   a bit of a buzz around the program due to the

   excellent hire of David Cutcliffe as head coach.

   They have added some good young players into the

   mix as well, and have already surpassed their win

   total of the last 3 seasons combined! Cutcliffe’s

   teams always execute extremely well on offense,

   and I expect them to be firing on all cylinders

   coming off of a bye week. That extra preparation

   time magnifies the already-prevalent coaching edge

   for the Blue Devils here, and based on what we’ve

   seen so far, I’m really not sure Miami is better than

   Duke right now. Sure, they are more talented and

   deeper, but you can only play 22 at once, and Miami

   is very beat up right now with as many as 6 players

   listed as starters early on possibly out for this one.

   Duke holds the edge at QB with 3rd year starter Thaddeus

   Lewis under center against a very suspect Miami

   secondary. The Canes were allowing 7.5 yards per pass

   before their last two games against the weak-passing

   attacks of Florida St. and Central Florida came to town.

   That number is much more respectable now at 6.1, but I

   think thy will struggle against Lewis and company on the

   road. Randy Shannon has upgraded the talent on both

   sides of the ball, but youth combined with a mostly

   inexperienced coaching staff hurts UM. They look very

   sloppy at times, especially on offense where they have no

   real identity. They have two talented young quarterbacks,

   but Shannon’s insistence on playing both along with

   inconsistent WR play and the inability of offensive

   coordinator Patrick Nix to establish any kind of rhythm has

   hindered any development, and both signal callers are

   lacking confidence right now. The win last week over UCF

   most likely did very little for UM, as their inability to pull

   away probably created more doubt than anything. Doubt

   and pressure can cause young teams to struggle with

   execution and make careless mistakes. That is happening

   a lot right now with the U, and Shannon has not proven

   that he can help a team through that just yet.

   The Canes are now 3-9 to the number the last two seasons

   as chalk, and although I do believe they will improve, they

   are simply not there yet. They don’t know how to win, and

   are very prone to either coming out flat (24-3 to Florida St.

   at home in the 1st half, 27-0 at the half at North Carolina

   last season, both were games they almost won), or letting

   their foot of the gas with a lead. Either of those traits spell

   trouble against a Duke team that will come out sky high for

   this one, and not quit until the final gun. UM by only 1

   Missouri (+7½) over @Texas

   Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

   Texas ought win this game easy, right? The #5

   ranked team in the country beats the #1 team by 10

   points at a neutral site and now comes home to host

   a lower-ranked Missouri team that just choked at

   home as a two touchdown favorite.

   Well let's take a look at some numbers first. Both

   teams have been dominant in the rushing

   department. Texas has outrushed their opponents

   4.6 yards per carry to 2.0. Missouri has outrushed

   their opponents 5.3 y.p.r. to 3.0. Tiny edge for

   Texas. The Horns have a big edge in passing too,

   9.4 yards per attempt to 6.7. Obviously with Chase

   Daniel the Tigers have excelled; they sport a 9.6 to

   7.3 y.p.p. margin. Small edge again for Texas. But

   my database gives a big edge to the Tigers on

   strength of schedule. Yes the Horns just played

   Oklahoma. But after that it’s all Tigers. Texas has

   feasted on the likes of Florida Atlantic, Rice and

   UTEP. Losing to Oklahoma State may have been a

   disappointment for Missouri, but the Cowboys may

   be a Top 10 program and the Tigers have only

   played one truly bad program - Buffalo. My numbers

   say that Missouri's schedule has been about 7-10

   points per game better. Big edge to the dog there.

   Overall my stat model calls for a surprisingly easy

   Tigers win as after the schedule adjustment they

   have the edge both on the ground and in the air.

   Usually in a game like this the tech edge will go to

   the undefeated home team - Texas, especially at a

   reasonable price. But last week's upset win over the

   Sooners gave my database a spin. The Longhorns

   apply to one of the best spots I have; a negative 17-

   58 ATS letdown system whose teams have failed to

   cover by an average of more than 9 points per

   game. The system is 0-2 ATS in 2008 and the losses

   each came by 14 points. By virtue of their perfect 2-

   0 record in the Big 12 Texas is also hit by a negative

   13-38 ATS system that nabbed Texas Tech last

   weekend. The Tigers have plenty of tech on their

   side as well; the best is a 25-1 ATS bounceback

   system that cashed a winner on the late phones last

   weekend with Tulane over UTEP.

   Beating Oklahoma earned the Longhorns a spot on top of

   the new AP poll. That is the first time Texas has led the AP

   during the regular season since 1984, and their jump to

   the top spot from #5 is the largest such jump since 1988.

   The Horns did not really upset Oklahoma; they earned it.

   But being the hunter is a lot easier than being the hunted.

   This week the bullseye gets pinned to the Longhorns. Both

   the stats and the tech say it’s going to be a short stay as

   college football's King of the Hill. Take the points.

   Missouri by 1.

   @Georgia (-15) over Vanderbilt

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   Last week, we detailed the phoniness of Vanderbilt.

   And their magical ride got derailed in Starkville in a

   17-14 loss. But once again, Vandy found

   themselves in a very fortunate situation at the half.

   They led by a score of 7-3, but these halftime

   numbers tell the real story. Mississippi St was

   dominating the Commodores in the stats; 9-4 in first

   downs, 155-42 in yardage, 4.4 – 2.1 in yards per

   play, 107-36 in rushing yards, and 4.7 – 2.1 in yards

   per rush. Despite those numbers, Vanderbilt

   somehow held a 4-point lead. How was this

   possible? After a 16-yard punt by Mississippi St,

   Vandy got the ball on the Bulldogs’ 17-yard line.

   And this happened with 4:32 left in the half. And to

   show you just how inept this Vandy offense is, it

   took them 4 minutes and 13 seconds to move the

   ball 17 yards. They scored a touchdown with 19

   seconds remaining in the half, but to take over 4

   minutes to go 17 yards is simply pathetic.

   The second half saw more of the same. But

   Mississippi St was able to capitalize on their chances

   and went up 17-7 and basically put the game out of

   reach. For the game, Vanderbilt had a grand total

   of 107 yards. The fact that this team ever got to 5-

   0 and ranked # 13 in the country will be one of the

   greatest flukes in college football history. And if

   they couldn’t move the ball on Mississippi St or their

   other four opponents, then they’ll have no chance in

   this game. This is a huge step up in class as

   Georgia was the preseason # 1 and is certainly a

   legitimate Top 10 team. If Georgia doesn’t win this

   game by 30 points or more, then they too would

   qualify as a phony team. But expect the winning

   margin to be huge here.

   Georgia disappointed us last week on the late phones. We

   used them laying 12½ over Tennessee, but came up short

   in their 26-14 win. But the box score tells us that they

   should have won the game by at least 30 points. The

   Bulldogs won yardage 458-209, including winning rushing

   149-1. That’s no misprint either. But two things

   prevented Georgia from winning that game more

   convincingly. One was the fact that Georgia settled for

   three chip-shot field goals (34, 28 and 20 yarders), with

   two of those coming over the first 17 minutes of the game.

   And two Georgia turnovers also prevented a blowout.

   They key interception came on 3rd and goal from the 6-

   yard line when Georgia was up 20-7. Instead of either a

   27-7 or 23-7 lead, the score was 20-14 after Tennessee

   capitalized on QB Matthew Stafford’s mistake. If Georgia

   comes anywhere close to last week’s production, they will

   annihilate Vanderbilt. Well aware of head coach Bobby

   Johnson’s 15-4 spread mark as a road underdog over the

   last five years, but most of that was when Vanderbilt was

   taken lightly. Georgia will not overlook the ‘Dores here

   because they only won by three last year in Nashville and

   lost at home in 2006. Georgia will be focused and things

   will get ugly between the hedges. Georgia by 22.

   @Northern Illinois (-7½) over Toledo

   Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   A lot of good things happened for Toledo when

   Michigan was inside the Rockets 10-yard line

   Saturday. In the first quarter, with a second and

   goal on the Toledo 5, Michigan’s Steven Threet

   tossed an INT that was returned 100 yards for a 7-

   0. To close the game, Michigan missed a 26-yard

   field goal that would have sent the game to

   overtime after having the ball inside the Toledo 10

   but failing to make any more progress. Toledo

   enjoyed a 3-1 turnover edge and pulled out the win

   despite being outrushed 170-70. Beating Michigan

   has proven to mean very little this fall. It creates a

   false sense of confidence and overrates the team.

   Utah beat Michigan, then failed to cover in a win

   over UNLV. Notre Dame beat Michigan, then got

   beat up by Michigan State the next week. Illinois

   beat Michigan, then lost outright as a double-digit

   favorite to Minnesota. So Toledo not only got lucky,

   but they set up themselves up for a major letdown

   here. This is a team that in the previous two weeks

   lost to Florida International at home as a 19-point

   favorite and then lost to Ball State 31-0, also at

   home.

   And they take on a Northern Illinois team that is

   underrated. The Huskies actually had a shot to beat

   Tennessee two weeks ago, but came up short.

   They also had tough, close losses at good teams

   Minnesota and Western Michigan. The losses keep

   their improvement off of the national radar, and

   others who did realize that the Huskies are pretty

   good may have lost with them this week in a noncovering

   win over Miami-O. Northern Illinois was

   more dominant than the 17-13 margin would

   indicate as they outgained the RedHawks 5.6-4.3

   yards per play. Two things masked the Husky

   superiority, a punt return for a TD by Miami, and the

   fact that Northern Illinois was down to their third

   string quarterback. The top two have been pretty

   good, and they Huskies should be in better shape

   here.

   Northern Illinois is the better team. NIU statistical

   edges are even more prominent than they appear,

   as they have been on the road all season, with the

   Miami game being their first home affair against a 1-

   A opponent all season. Big letdown situation for a

   Toledo team that doesn’t play well on the road.

   Nice spot for Jerry Kill’s squad. Northern Illinois

   by 14.

   Arkansas (+9½) over @Kentucky

   Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Obviously it was going to be a transition year at

   Arkansas, with a change from the running attacks

   favored by Houston Nutt to Bobby Petrino. But the

   changeover was even worse than expected, and the

   Hogs had been pretty pathetic. But there’s some

   latent talent in Fayetteville, and the Razorbacks are

   starting to catch on to things. The fact that the Hogs

   hung around with Florida for the first three quarters

   two weeks ago looks pretty good when you look at

   Florida’s 7+ yards per play against formerly

   impenetrable LSU on Saturday night. And while

   Auburn is a mess, the level of dominance exhibited

   by Arkansas in their 25-22 win on the Plains is

   noteworthy. Total yardage was 416-193, rushing

   dominance was 188-56, and first downs were 19-11.

   The Razorbacks are starting to get it.

   Kentucky is a team beset with quarterback

   problems. An early 27-2 win over Louisville made a

   lot of people sit up and take notice, but that game

   was not all that impressive, as UK gained only 210

   yards on 64 plays and the Cardinals offense was

   terrible early. Kentucky barely held on to beat

   MTSU 20-14 and a 17-14 loss to Alabama was not

   really that close against a Tide team letting down

   the week after schooling Georgia. Saturday was

   another close game that saw them lose yardage

   348-214 in a 24-17 loss to South Carolina. This

   team simply doesn’t have a lot of offensive pop.

   Their other two wins were against 1-AA Norfolk

   State and Western Kentucky, a team in their first

   year after being elevated from 1-AA. So they’ve

   struggled against all four 1-A teams they’ve faced,

   and now they’re being asked to cover double digits

   against an Arkansas team that is improving.

   Arkansas’ defense is vulnerable, but can Kentucky

   generate the kind of attack that will take advantage?

   This figures to be a tight, low scoring game in which

   points are hard to come by. Casey Dick has been

   around forever and his experience comes in handy

   with his young skill position teammates. Dick

   completed a 31-yard pass to Joe Adams and a 39-

   yard strike to Greg Childs against Auburn, and both

   of those two are freshmen. There are some young

   players starting to make plays, and while Bobby

   Petrino isn’t a guy you’d want to buy a used car

   from, he can coach at the college level.

   Overmatched in the pros, and unable to relate to

   players he couldn’t dominate, he’s a fine strategist

   at this level, and recieves full compliance from his

   young charges. Improving Hogs hang around.

   Kentucky by only 3.

   NFL

   Sunday, October 19th, 2008

   @Chiefs (+7½) over Titans

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   Sometimes you just have to play the ugly dog in the NFL.

   And there’s no uglier dog on the card this week than the

   Kansas City Chiefs. Off to a 1-4 start, the Chiefs now own

   just one win in their last 14 games played. Yep, that’s a 1-

   13 record dating back to November 4th of last year when

   the Chiefs closed out the 2007 season by losing their last

   nine games. The whole organization is a mess. GM Carl

   Peterson has been adamant about rebuilding the Chiefs

   roster with young talent, tight end Tony Gonzalez has had

   repeated talks with Peterson looking for a ticket out of

   town, and head coach Herm Edwards may be one of the

   worst coaches in the game. Nice guy (talked to him at the

   Vegas airport a few years back), but simply not a good NFL

   head coach. There’s nothing to like about the Chiefs, so

   how can I recommend playing them this week?

   Kansas City falls into two decent situations for this game.

   First, they enter this game off their bye week. Home dogs

   off a bye always deserve a look, especially if they lost their

   previous game going into it. For two weeks, they’ve had to

   listen to how bad they are, and that they don’t resemble

   the look of a real NFL team. That’s two weeks of constant

   negativity with nobody giving them the time of day. That’s

   plenty of motivation for the Chiefs to put everything they

   have into their preparation for this game in order to shut

   up the doubters. Second, the Chiefs were shutout 34-0 in

   their loss at Carolina. And NFL shutout losers usually

   bounce back strong in their next game because of the

   embarrassment they just endured. Even though Kansas

   City has lost 13 of their last 14 games, the Chiefs have

   been somewhat competitive losing seven of those games

   by 10 points or less. We’ll see their best shot in this game,

   an effort similar to their Denver win three weeks back.

   There’s nothing bad to say about Tennessee’s play on the

   field. At 5-0 straight up and against the spread, they are

   only one of two remaining undefeated teams left. The

   Titans have the best defense in the league holding

   opponents to 11 points per game on 268 yards per game

   while allowing a minuscule 4.4 yards per play. Those are

   some daunting numbers, and obviously tough to play into.

   But the Titans are not a team really built to win by big

   margins, especially on the road. Over the last 3 years,

   Tennessee is 11-7 on the road. Of those eleven wins,

   eight of them have come by 9 points or less with their

   average margin coming by only 7.7 points per game. The

   Titans have only been road favorites 3 times over that

   span by 3½, 4, and 1½ points. This is unfamiliar territory

   for the Titans, and a spot that favors the home underdog.

   Titans by only 1.

   Saints @ Panthers Over 44

   Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

   Here we have one of the NFL’s best offenses in New

   Orleans and an improved-yet-inconsistent Carolina

   offense that should be able to put up some big

   numbers against a mediocre defense at home.

   Sure, Carolina’s defense is decent, but the Saints

   very seldom play a bad offensive game under Sean

   Payton always moving the ball and putting up points

   no matter who they play. In fact in their last 18

   games, they have been held to under 22 points only

   once, and under 325 yards only 4 times. That is

   remarkable consistency and has led to a 13-4-1

   OVER mark. Drew Brees is playing the quarterback

   position as well as anybody in the league, and the

   passing game should be bolstered by the expected

   return of Marquis Colston this week. The offensive

   line paves the way for all of their weapons, and

   Sean Payton is one of the best playcallers in the

   business. On the season, New Orleans is averaging

   29 points per game, 412 yards per game and 6.5

   yards per play, all top 5 numbers.

   Carolina’s offense has shown flashes as well, and

   the weapons are definitely there. Jake Delhomme is

   back under center behind a rebuilt, talented

   offensive line, and although he struggled last week

   throwing 3 picks against Tampa Bay, he is a very

   capable QB in this league. He steps down in class

   here against a New Orleans stop unit that allows

   330 ypg and 22 ppg. The Panthers have a chance

   to be one of the league’s most balanced offenses as

   Jonathan Stewart looks like a future star at RB, and

   the receiving corps is deeper behind Steve Smith

   this season. We’ll have to check the status of their

   offensive line here as both C Ryan Kali and T Jeff

   Otah missed last week’s loss at Tampa, and we’d

   want at least one in the lineup (which we should get

   as both were gametime decisions this past week)

   before pulling the trigger.

   Carolina’s offense has been able to sit on some big

   leads this season, but they are not good enough

   defensively to shut down New Orleans (is anyone?)

   here. The Saints will get some points, and that will

   make Carolina open things up as well. Carolina has

   also had some trouble with getting punts blocked

   lately, and the Saints and Reggie Bush may be able

   to spring a big return if Carolina puts too much

   emphasis on protection. I expect both teams in the

   20’s here, and while the Panthers’ defense may pull

   them through, Brees and company will be heard

   from, as usual. We’ll call it 26-24 Carolina. Play

   Over the total.

   Monday, October 20th, 2008

   Denver (+3 even) over @New England

   Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

   My NFL tech database has gone thru some changes over

   the past couple of seasons. Kevin O'Neill has touched on

   the fact that in the NFL passing has become much more

   important than running of late and I've mentioned it in

   passing here in this column. According to my numbers the

   game the increased emphasis on the air game started in

   2002. The change was quite difficult to see at first in part

   because there are so few NFL regular season games. My

   own study has also shown that in the early part of the

   season the run game still holds some value from a tech

   perspective. But we are reaching the stage of the

   campaign where the air attack and its defense have

   become the dominant handicapping factor over the past 6

   seasons. All this is a roundabout way of getting to my

   point: I've had to ditch quite a bit of stat-related tech over

   the past couple of seasons, and I hold very dear the few

   stat-based tech systems that have done well both in the

   distant NFL past and more recently. The best of my statbased

   systems has a play here against the Patriots. It

   derives from New England's poor statistical performance

   and the system's teams are just 131-218 ATS, including 4-

   8 ATS so far this year. This system has performed at a

   27% clip out of sample, and it works on Monday night

   games too with a 4-11 ATS mark and a larger losing cover

   margin.

   While the loss of Tom Brady has received most of national

   media's attention, the Pats' bigger problem has been the

   decline in its defense. They are giving up 7.5 yards per

   pass. The New England organization has been very good at

   discarding expensive players who no longer gave the team

   value for their dollars, but this past summer they made

   some curious moves. They certainly needed to makes

   some moves; at the end of last season the defense looked

   old and slow. One acquisition in particular struck me: the

   signing of cornerback Ferndando Bryant to a one-year

   contract. Bryant was let go by my hometown Lions. He was

   never really a good fit for Rod Marinelli's Tampa 2 scheme

   and his body suffered quite a bit of wear and tear from the

   run support the defense demands. So from a stylistic view

   the move made sense, but it wasn't like Bryant was doing

   a bang up job against opposing receivers either. Now

   Bryant didn't make it through training camp with New

   England, but if the Pats were desperate enough to give a

   Matt Millen castoff a shot they were in bigger trouble than

   I realized at the time.

   Still I thought Matt Cassel would do a credible job filling in

   for an injured Tom Brady. While Brady is a very good QB

   his numbers until last season were never really deserving

   of all the accolades that came his way. The Patriots are a

   team that prepares well for emergencies, and the general

   consensus was that New England was still a playoff-caliber

   team. After 142 pass attempts I'm not so sure. Cassel has

   put up a respectable 6.4 yards per pass but simply doesn't

   make the proper decisions quickly enough. He has been

   sacked 19 times so far, and many of them have been his

   fault. Bottom line, the Broncos are the better team right

   now and they probably deserve to be a small favorite in

   this game. New England is going to have to fall further

   before the betting public makes the proper adjustments.

   Denver by 3.

   Systems & Strategies

   Note: Frequently the systems that have come in have some contrast with our Max

   selections. The systems are created independently of our selections and this will occur

   from time to time.

   In my mind systems are more valuable than trends. A system can be true for the

   entirety of either college or pro football. Trends focus on single teams. Take systems

   with a grain of salt, but they can prove to be valuable tools in a handicapper’s arsenal.

   Sometimes they last for a while. Sometimes they turn around. Always ask yourself,

   “does this make sense?” when deciding on the validity of a system. Systems have never

   been the basis for my handicapping but others enjoy success for them and this page is a

   popular feature in the Max.

   Each week we’ll have systems and strategies that are true for the entirety of either

   college football or the NFL from respected guest handicappers.

   College System from Dave Fobare, free selections on tape at 770-618-8700

   The Heart Can’t Take Much More: Play against any college team off a win in which

   they scored at least 24 points and won the game by exactly 1 point.

   Record Since 1983: 63-36 ATS (63.6%)

   This week’s application: UCLA (play against Stanford)

   College System from Nelly’s Sportsline, http://www.nellysports.com [nellysports.com]">www.nellysports.com, phone 608.283.3132

   Role Reversal: Play on any college road underdog that lost outright in the previous

   game as a double-digit home favorite

   Pointspread Record Since 1989: 74-45-2 (62.2%)

   This week’s applications: Michigan, Missouri

   College System from Marc Lawrence, http://www.playbook.com [playbook.com]">www.playbook.com, 1.800.321.7777

   Road to Ruin: Play against any college football first year coach as a double-digit road

   favorite if his team is off back-to-back wins.

   Pointspread Record since 1980: 32-12 (71%)

   This week’s application: SMU (play against Houston)

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 14 2008 8:14pm
8. 0 likes

   THE SPORTS MEMO

   BRENT CROW

   KANSAS STATE AT COLORADO -2.5

   Recommendation: Colorado

   As a result of a recent tough schedule, the Buffaloes are a very cheap favorite

   this week at home against Kansas State. Colorado has dropped its last three games versus Florida State, Texas and Kansas. They haven’t been able to get their offense on track against those three better than average defenses, but this week they face one of the worst stop units in the nation.

   Kansas State has given up some staggering offensive numbers in its last four games. They allowed 580 yards at Louisville, 539 yards at home to UL-Lafayette, 628 yards at home to Texas Tech, and 544 yards last week at Texas A&M. They are pathetic against the run, giving up 5.95 ypc and have no clue about defending the pass either. Colorado will definitely get its ground game going this week and should have a much better go of it with the football. Kansas State just allowed Texas A&M to exceed its season-

   high for points and yardage (by 142 yards), beating them thanks to a blocked punt return for a TD and other Aggie mistakes. Colorado needs a win and the perfect cure is facing one of the worst defenses in the country.

   MARTY OTTO

   AIR FORCE AT UNLV +4.5

   Recommendation: UNLV

   We should have had an easy winner here last week in a similar situation with Buffalo but a late collapse doomed the Bulls in the fourth quarter. This week, we go back to the well with another squad off extended rest. UNLV has shown flashes

   of brilliance and flashes of futility this season but here at home, coming off a bye, I expect to see the former from the Rebels. The bye week greatly helps this defense in terms of preparing for the option offense of Air Force and allows them to shake off the loss at Colorado State two weeks ago. This line is nothing more than an overreaction to Air Force’s blowout win against hapless SDSU and I don’t expect that same result here as the Falcons’ only other wins by over this margin

   have come against Southern Utah and equally hapless Wyoming. With Frank Summers and Omar Clayton leading a solid offensive attack we can look for UNLV to, at worst, trade scores with Air Force and keep this one close. Then again, if Air Force struggles with turnovers like they did against Utah or special teams miscues

   as they did against Navy we might be looking at a UNLV SU win. Either way the home dog gets my support, rested and ready for a very young Falcons team.

   ERIN RYNNING

   MISSOURI +7 AT TEXAS

   Recommendation: Missouri

   Missouri looks to make amends off its first loss of the season, with a trek to the Lone Star State to battle the Texas Longhorns. Texas-native Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel was caught looking ahead last Saturday night, while losing to Oklahoma State 28-23. However, I expect the Tigers to rebound.

   Daniel has had this game circled in blood as the Longhorns failed to recruit the smallish Heisman Trophy contender. Meanwhile, Texas boasts a No. 1 rating after its upset victory over Oklahoma, 45-35. No question, the Longhorns and their own quarterback star Colt McCoy feature a unique toughness

   not always associated with Texas teams but defensive holes remain. The key matchup to watch in this contest will be Daniel against a questionable Longhorns’ secondary that was undeniably torched last week against Oklahoma.

   Texas has allowed 268 ypg passing thus far and though stout against the run, I feel Missouri is going to move the ball via the pass with the same type of ease Sam Bradford and Co. did. Look for the Tigers to slip inside the number in Texas this weekend as another top-ranked team is on upset alert.

   JARED KLEIN

   PITTSBURGH AT NAVY +3.5

   Recommendation: Navy

   This is the type of game that Dave Wannstedt and his Pitt Panthers lose. Pitt is 0-4 ATS as a favorite this year and last season it was 1-3 with a lone ATS win coming against Eastern Michigan. The Midshipmen’s run of three straight wins heading into their bye week was extremely impressive.

   Navy beat Rutgers, and went on the road to beat Wake Forest and Air Force over the last three weeks. Navy’s only losses have come against a very good Ball State team and a much improved Duke program. “Our kids just continue to fight and I couldn’t be more proud of them,” Navy Head Coach Ken Niumatalolo was quoted as saying. “This is a tough stretch we’ve had. We played Ball State on a short week, we were on the road against Duke, Wake Forest and Air Force. Our kids didn’t flinch. They have stepped up to every challenge they have faced and taken it head-on.” After

   starting out the season with four out of its first six on the road, Navy has found a way to finish that stretch 4-2 SU. Navy beat Pitt outright last year and they have a shot to do it again this year. Take Navy this weekend.

   TIM TRUSHEL

   MISSISSIPPI STATE +8.5 AT TENNESSE

   Recommendation: Mississippi State

   A couple of perennial top teams in the SEC, Auburn and Tennessee, have struggled tremendously on the offensive side of the equation. Both programs

   had new offensive coordinators and similarly terrible quarterback play. Combined those two teams have gone 1-9-1 against the spread as the market has failed to adjust to their declining abilities. Tennessee made a quarterback change but it has not helped. Against Georgia, the score didn’t reflect it but the Volunteers were crushed. Tennessee allowed 458 yards while gaining just 209. Georgia stacked the line of scrimmage and held Tennessee

   to 16 yards rushing on 13 carries. Nick Stephens was only 13-of-32 for 193 passing yards. If not for two interceptions inside the 15-yard line, Georgia would have won by a 30+ margin. This week they’ll face a pretty good defense in Mississippi State, who has held its own recently, performing

   well against LSU, Auburn and Vanderbilt. Those offenses are similar in ability and stature to Tennessee. Getting eight points will prove to be too much and we’ll call for continued struggles out of Tennessee. Take the points.

   TEDDY COVERS

   FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +7 AT TROY

   Recommendation: Florida International

   Forget the matchups for a moment, and forget the situation. This is a College Football

   Handicapping 101 situation, worthy of some explanation. The core reason for this bet is that I’m firmly convinced that Florida International is a far better team right now than they are being given credit for by the betting marketplace. Remember,

   this team went 1-26 SU in their previous 27 games prior to the current three-game winning streak. Heading into the 2008 season, I had FIU tied with Western Kentucky and Army as the three weakest teams in all of FBS college football according

   to my power ratings. That ranking was clearly wrong, as Mario Cristobal’s squad has developed into a legitimate Sun Belt contender, excelling especially on the defensive side of the football. Over their last four games - the turnaround really

   started with a hard fought eight-point loss to South Florida - the Golden Panthers

   have covered the pointspread by a whopping 94 combined points. There will be all kinds of value riding this team as they ascend the college football food chain in the weeks, months and yes, years, to come. There’s money to be made riding teams that are morphing from bad to good, or vice versa, and FIU is clearly one such team.

   ROB VENO

   NORTH CAROLINA AT VIRGINIA +5.5

   Recommendation: Virginia

   A suddenly red hot Virginia squad has found offensive balance, which features a solid running game, an efficient short passing game and rapidly improving quarterback play from sophomore Mark Verica. Back-back 400-yard efforts against Maryland and East Carolina become more impressive when you note that each game saw them rush for 200+ and pass for 200+ while completing over 73% of their passes. North Carolina, at 5-1, has certainly created a huge bandwagon following but its victory over Notre Dame last week was the sixth time in six games that their opponent had more first downs and the fifth time the Tar Heels were outgained. Turnovers and special teams have played a huge role in their current record but I feel that this could be a real flat spot. North Carolina enters this contest off of three consecutive National Television appearances where they exerted an extreme amount of effort. It figures to be doubtful that they’ll come up with the same type of intensity here. A knee injury to explosive return man and leading WR Brandon Tate could hurt the Heels in this one as well. Virginia is still not commanding much respect but they’ll seek to earn some with an all out effort that may just lead to the outright upset.

   ED CASH

   MIAMI (FL) AT DUKE +5.5

   O/U N/L

   Recommendation: Duke

   I have been on the Duke bandwagon most of the season and this week’s number gets me behind the Blue Devils again. They played their only stinker of the season in their last outing at Georgia Tech, losing 27-0 two weeks ago and had a bye last week. The off week should really help Duke, as they will be healthy and rested for the young Hurricanes. Miami has been hot and cold recently, as you might expect with any young team. The bottom line, however, is that they aren’t very good offensively, especially throwing the football. The Hurricanes only average 265 yards per game in their five games against FBS competition (4.25 yards per play). They are not going to have many edges against a pretty solid Duke defense, even on the line of scrimmage. Miami is also playing its fifth straight week and has ACC-leading Wake Forest next week at home. David Cutcliffe will have his Blue Devils ready to play this week and an outright win would not be a shock. Duke’s earlier wins over Virginia and Navy look better and better as those teams continue to beat good teams. Let’s take the points this weekend.

   DONNIE BLACK

   MIAMI (FL) AT DUKE +5.5

   Recommendation: Duke

   In our column Earners and Burners we wrote about Miami-Florida and the overall decline of the program. The reason for to the lackluster season has been a result of a mediocre passing game. On the year they have thrown for just eight passing touchdowns

   while throwing nine interceptions. Additionally, the Hurricanes average less than 4.3 yards per pass play and do not have big play capabilities. On defense, they only have three interceptions in five games. Only 11 of the 120 FBS teams have fewer interceptions than the Hurricanes. This week Duke comes in off a bye with an extra week to prepare. Even without the favorable situation we rate Duke higher than Miami-

   Florida. Offensively, under the direction of David Cutcliffe, this Blue Devils team is improved. While still not overwhelming on the defensive side of the equation, Duke’s defense is improved. Early on they have shown the ability to stay competitive with a pretty balanced attack but after being shutout in their most recent game against Georgia Tech, Cutcliffe said he was going to start from scratch and do a “pretty detailed study of every little thing.” We would expect a strong showing with the extra time to prepare

   and we’ll back the better team in a favorable situation getting underdog points.

   NFL

   FAIRWAY JAY

   CLEVELAND AT WASHINGTON -7

   Recommendation: Washington

   We cashed another outright underdog winner last Sunday when the previously winless Rams pulled out a big ‘Dog (+13) win at Washington. And just as St. Louis was in a good spot, rested and ready off a bye and catching Washington off back-to-back division road wins, it’s now the Browns that find themselves in a bad spot. Cleveland will have played a big, emotional game at home Monday night against the Super Bowl champion NY Giants (results unknown). The Redskins

   will go for the scalp and hold nothing back after letting St. Louis leave with a win despite holding a decided statistical edge in that contest. Washington will have success on the ground with its No. 3-ranked rushing offense averaging over 150 ypg. Cleveland has struggled to get their offense going as they rank dead last in total yards and also average a league-low 3.8 yards-per-play. Compounding Cleveland’s problems are turnovers and penalties, as the Browns have committed

   at least nine penalties in every game this season. Washington had just one turnover until suffering three against the Rams. Expect the Redskins to rebound with a focused and physically dominating performance as they deliver a big win.

   TEDDY COVERS - NEWS AND NOTES:

   Bengals - No first downs through the first 26 minutes of the first half -- this offense simply doesn’t work without Carson Palmer behind center. And frankly, they weren’t even close: the average distance was longer than third and eleven. Cinci had at least one offensive penalty or a turnover on each of those first four drives. Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is clearly a bottom tier second stringer, much more comfortable making things happen

   with his feet than with his arm. Unfortunately for the Bengals,

   Fitzpatrick doesn’t have the speed to make him a bona fide running threat at this level, which leaves me wondering exactly what this kid is doing as a No. 2 quarterback on an NFL roster. And with Chris Perry playing as poorly as any starting running back in the league right now -- leading the NFL in fumbles while suffering from an inability to break tackles -- this offense really is bottom tier.

   Colts - Peyton Manning missed the entire preseason, and his never got the reps with his receiving corps that they desperately

   needed. Indy’s offensive line was an injury riddled mess in September. No surprise, then, that through the first month of the season, Indy’s offense was a work in progress, just slightly out of sync. It appears as if the Colts worked out some of those problems prior to this game - Manning, Reggie Wayne and Marvin

   Harrison were clicking here like a well oiled machine. Replacing the injured Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes was more than capable of carrying the load. Impressive showing from a banged up defense!

   Dolphins - There are some holes in this pass defense, despite their shutdown efforts against the Chargers and Patriots over the past two weeks. Miami is playing a soft zone -- lots of room underneath for quality quarterbacks to hit their receivers again and again. The soft zone eventually cost them the game as the Texans marched down the field, cashing in on their two minute drill to win. Chad Pennington is a good fit for this offense: very efficient, very accurate, even though he clearly lacks the arm strength to test opposing defenses deep. Miami is just 1-20 on third downs of seven yards or longer this season, a clear indication that this passing game is still very much a work in progress.

   Jaguars - Jags have scored 41 points off their opponent’s turnovers

   this year including a touchdown and a field goal here following a pair of takeaways. And, the Jags haven’t allowed opposing teams to score a single point off their own turnovers. That’s the type of ratio that bodes well for their chances following the bye week - last week’s ugly home loss to Pittsburgh had no hangover effect this time around. If this team can get healthier on the offensive line and in the secondary over the bye, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a big second half, much like last year when they closed out the regular season on a 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS run.

   Jets - I’m really starting to dislike offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s play calling more and more. Third and long with Brett Favre at quarterback facing a young, struggling secondary,why not take a shot at a first down throw, as opposed to a little dump-off screen pass? The runs are predictable, the passes are predictable. I guess I might be a tad bit too critical, considering that Brett Favre came into the game with the best quarterback rating in the NFL, something the OC deserves some credit for. That being said, some of these play calls are truly baffling.

   Raiders: - This pass defense got torched, unable to generate pressure on Drew Brees while allowing eleven consecutive completed passes to start the game, and forcing only four incomplete passes out of thirty attempts. The defense couldn’t get off the field on third down, didn’t generate pressure on Brees, and allowed the type of long, slow, demoralizing drives that suck the life out of a team. Meanwhile, the offense wasn’t capable of consistently moving the chains against a mid-level defense. Too many dropped passes, too many penalties; exactly the type of mistakes that will kill a “run-first” offense like that of the Raiders.

   Ravens - This run defense is as good in ’08 as it’s ever been. Starting nose tackle Kelly Gregg went on IR, but it hasn’t made a difference as the Baltimore front seven blows up the line of scrimmage again and again. Unfortunately for Baltimore, their pass defense is clearly vulnerable -- the defensive weakness here is in the secondary. The better quarterbacks in the NFL can methodically pick this defense apart, even without a strong running game to support them. Don’t expect Joe Flacco to lead this team to many come-from-behind victories. The coaching staff doesn’t trust him to fire away downfield, and Baltimore’s receiving corps is a very limited group. If the Ravens are down a couple of scores at halftime, look to bet against them in the second half. An eight minute, 15-play drive that results in a field goal simply doesn’t cut it when trailing 31-0 in the second half. Seven of their first eight drives of the game lasted three plays or less, very bad news against a suspect defense.

   Texans - We’ve seen this before from Houston -- lots of yardage, not many points. The Texans reached Miami territory on their first four drives, but a pair of Matt Schaub interceptions, a sack leading to a punt and a field goal were all they had to show for it. That being said, for the third consecutive week, the offense started slow, but found a nice rhythm by the second half, gaining more than 55 yards four times and putting points on the board three times in their five second half possessions. But this defense is getting worse and worse. Last week’s fourth quarter meltdown against Indy had clear carryover effects today, with a noticeable lack of confidence and spark. Poor tackling, poor coverage skills and bad angles are a defensive trifecta that is very difficult to overcome.

   ERIN RYNNING - STOCK WATCH

   Buy the Baylor Bears - Sometimes in college football you can cash plenty of tickets on an up-and-coming program before the marketplace even flinches. The 2008 Baylor Bears seem to fit that mold as new head coach Art Briles leads this program into uncharted territory. Last week, the Bears snapped a 13-game Big XII losing streak, while ousting Iowa State 49-21. The 28-point triumph was the largest margin of victory in history for the Bears in league play. Outstanding true freshman quarterback Robert

   Griffin continued to move forward, completing 21-of-24 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns. Unlike previous Baylor regimes, they continued to battle two weeks ago when falling behind Oklahoma 28-0 in the first quarter. Yes, they were blown out, but with a new system and philosophies, hard times are going to occur. What shocks me the most is the Bears have now gone four games without turning the ball over. In previous editions, you almost always had to account for at least two or three miscues against top-tier competition. Now, you could look at the Bears’ upcoming schedule

   with dates against Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Missouri, Texas as daunting but keep in mind a lot of those teams are going to look at playing the Bears as a chance to take a much-needed break. Not to mention they could also be in letdown situations similar to Oklahoma

   State off its monster win over Missouri. Look for the Bears and Briles to fly under the radar in Big XII action the rest of the way.

   Buy the Buffalo Bills - A perfect run for the Bills ended last week in a blowout loss at Arizona but as we know, every team in the NFL is subject to letdowns throughout

   the course of a full 16-game season. The mantra for the Bills this season has been to challenge each individual player to play above their capabilities. In dating back to last year, it has been Buffalo’s special teams play that has kept them competitive in a lot of games they had no business being in. But this season, coupled with continued solid play out of that unit, we are seeing much more balance from the offense and defense. They are one of the smaller teams in the NFL but seem to be thriving with their speed and nose for the football. I also think they matchup well in the trenches with most teams in the league. The addition of Marcus

   Stroud at the defensive tackle position has given the Bills the size and experience they’ve been looking for on defense. Gaining health on defense was also key after suffering numerous injuries on the stop-unit a season ago. The bottom line is the Bills finally have the personnel and confidence to be a real player in the AFC, while their current record puts them in position to bark loudly the rest of the way. And from looking at this weekend’s contest at home against San Diego (we’ve seen how teams have struggled

   traveling out East) the value is certainly there as some shops have Buffalo as a pick ‘em. Not a bad price with such a solid team.

   DONNIE BLACK - EARNERS AND BURNERS

   Earner: Florida-International - More so than the major

   conferences, schools in non-BCS leagues can find quick turnarounds and alert bettors can find plenty of betting opportunities. In these smaller conferences teams also get much less publicity and coverage so the value can be in play for some time. Florida International was 1-11 last season and avoided la winless campaign by beating North Texas in the last game of the season. This season they faced BCS teams on the road to open the campaign in Kansas and Iowa. Losing 82-10 combined in those games, the market didn’t get much verification

   that the Panthers had improved. But the have. The recruiting

   has been strong and the speed on this team compares very favorable to other Sun Belt teams. Freshman Ty Hilton was regarded

   as the best high school athlete in Dade County and was recruited by Ole Miss, West Virginia and Florida. He has emerged as a huge playmaker, scoring four touchdowns in FIU’s last three games -- all of which were wins. This week they will be installed as an underdog at Troy and then in their following game off the bye they will again be in the same role at UL-Lafayette. They end the season with four consecutive home games and will sneak up on conference opposition. They are 5-1 against the spread this season and we expect to look for more opportunities to back a team that remains largely under the radar on the added board.

   Burner: Miami-Florida - Randy Shannon does not have the built in advantages that his predecessors had for the better part of the last two decades at Miami. While he has said the right things in terms of his recruiting agenda, the fact remains

   that this team is nowhere near the level of where it once was. They currently sit with a 3-3 straight up record but they have not been overly impressive in any of the wins. Against the spread, Miami is 1-4 versus the closing number in its lined games. The quarterback play is suspect and as they move through their conference schedule, the difficulty level will increase. On the season, they have combined for just eight passing touchdowns while throwing nine interceptions.

   Additionally, the Hurricanes average less than 4.5 yards per pass play and do not have big play capabilities. On defense they only have three interceptions in five games. Only 11 of the 120 FBS teams have fewer interceptions than the Hurricanes. The schedule will also prove tough the rest of the way. During the remaining of the ACC conference season, a couple of key games against Duke and Georgia Tech both come with the opposition off an extra week to prepare. The spread results will continue to falter as the market insists on inflating the overall strength of this high-profile team. As an example, they are a -5.5 road favorite over Duke. Conference opponents

   like Wake Forest, Duke and Georgia Tech have all continued to improve and remain undervalued in the betting marketplace.

   BRENT CROW - EARLY LOOK CFB

   East Carolina -9 vs. Memphis - What has happened to the Pirates

   after their great start? They look completely lost on offense and obviously really miss Chris Johnson, who has been starring as a rookie for the Titans. No way I can lay points with them right now.

   Clemson -2 vs. Georgia Tech - First thought: Why is Clemson favored? They were pathetic against Bama to open the year, and seemed to have gotten worse last week at Wake Forest. Still getting too much respect. But not enough for Tommy Bowden to keep his job as he was canned Monday.

   Iowa -4 vs. Wisconsin - Wisconsin has been playing much stiffer competition

   than the Hawkeyes and this seems to be an overreaction to the Penn State whipping last week.

   Oklahoma -18 vs Kansas

   - This seems high for a Sooner team off its first loss of the year. I have lots of respect for Mark Mangino and Todd Reesing and might take a shot with the underdog here.

   Tennessee -8 vs. Mississippi State - Tennessee as a favorite is not where I want my money. The Vols can’t run, can’t throw, and can’t play special teams. State got a win last week and could get another this week.

   Alabama -13.5 vs. Ole Miss - Bama should be ready to play this week after the bye and also after Texas jumped them in the polls. Ole Miss is a quality team and how good does that 31-30 win at the Swamp look now? Was hoping for more points with them here after they opened +24 at Florida.

   Georgia-15 vs. Vanderbilt - The Commodores must bounce back from their first loss of the year against a Georgia team that still hasn’t played its best game. The Dogs beat Tennessee last week, but weren’t sharp and wasted too many opportunities.

   SouthernCal -42 vs. Washington State - Laughing at this one. Wazzu is down to its fourth quarterback. 66-0 this week for the Cougars.

   Texas -7 vs. Missouri - How do the Horns respond after the huge win over Oklahoma? Will Mizzou bounce back after its loss to Oklahoma State? Seems like taking the points here would be a good idea.

   Kentucky -11 vs. Arkansas. Arkansas is much improved over the past three weeks and they whipped Auburn much worse than the score indicated. They are gaining confidence as well and face a pedestrian Kentucky offense this week. Hard to lay doubles with the Wildcats.

   Oklahoma State -16.5 vs. Baylor. Upset alert here as the Cowboys enter unchartedterritory. They have Texas on deck, but they better not overlook Robert Griffin and the Baylor Bears. Griffin has been terrific for a freshman in the Big XII and will only get better.

   LSU -3.5 vs. South Carolina - Steve Spurrier may have found himself a quarterback in Stephen Garcia, who was sharp in the win at Kentucky win last week. Spurrier has a solid defense and the Gamecocks have been dangerous as a home dog. LSU is not as bad as they looked at Florida last week and will be out for blood this against USC.

   Penn State -24 vs. Michigan - Joe Pa is about to break his nine-game losing skid to Michigan. The poor Wolverines

   lost at home to Toledo last week and no one expects Rich Rodriguez to even be close this week. The Lions might be looking ahead to their trip to Ohio State next week. Michigan fans better hope that’s the case.

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 14 2008 8:15pm
9. 0 likes

   Power Plays 4*'s

   CFB:

   4* FSU

   4* Duke

   4* Iowa

   4* W. Michigan

   4* Nebraska

   4* USC

   4* n. Illinois

   4* Penn State

   4* Kentucky

   4* Kansas State

   4* South Carolina

   4* Louisville

   4* ULM

   NFL: (NFL 4*'s 4-1-1 ATS 80% Last 5 Weeks)

   4* Tennessee

   4* Tampa Bay

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 14 2008 8:15pm
10. 0 likes

    Powersweep (Northcoast/Phil Steele)

    NCAA

    4*- OU

    3*- Nevada

    3*- Ohio St

    2*- FAU

    2*- S.Carolina

    2*- W.Mich

    Underdog

    Missouri

    UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

    Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-126. Over

    the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT

    UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play

    of the Week:

    Missouri (+7) over TEXAS

    The last time that Missouri beat Texas in Austin was a 10-0 shutout in 1896! Brown is 4-0 vs MO (1-3

    ATS) with the avg win 40-17. UT is 12-4 SU vs ranked foes and 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS after the RRR. Texas

    is 6-0 SU/ATS after a solid 2H performance LW vs OU. They are playing what Brown is calling “the best

    4 tms in a row we’ve played maybe in Texas history.” QB McCoy is avg 260 ypg (79%) with a 17-3 ratio.

    MO was stunned LW by OSU, never really getting on track offensively & the def all’d 187 rush yds (4.3)

    and wasn’t able to get off the field (8-3 ATS off SU loss). It took 52 drives but QB Daniel finally had a 3

    & out series. He is avg 343 ypg (76%) with a 16-4 ratio, but 3 int were LW. Both off rank in the Top 10

    (MO #7, UT #3), but Texas has the def edge (#6-27) as they are all’g 51 (1.9) rush ypg & are ranked #3

    in our pass eff D (268 ypg, 55%, 10-4 ratio). The Horns are 3-0 SU/ATS in Austin this ssn (exact 52-10

    scores in each), but MO is on an 18-4 SU & 15-5 ATS run as the Tigers will be the toughest opp to visit

    since then-#1 Ohio St in ‘06 (UT lost 24-7, -2). Also new #1 UT has OSU on deck which now looms

    very large in the B12 South race. Doesn't it make sense to use a team off a big loss over a team off a

    huge win. Could we use the Tigers as our Top play? FORECAST: Missouri 38 TEXAS 37

    KEY SELECTIONS

    4* OKLAHOMA over Kansas - Sooners were B12 champs LY but it was the Jayhawks that finished #7

    in the AP ahead of #8 OU. OU is off an emotional loss to rival Texas (11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS gm after) were

    they couldn’t stop the Horns in the 2H (outscored 25-14 all’g 161 rush yds, 4.6). OU has won 21 straight

    B12 HG’s (13-8 ATS, avg score 42-14) and is 11-3-1 as a HF and 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS vs the B12 North.

    QB Bradford avg 342 ypg (72%) with a 23-5 ratio. Mangino was an asst cch under Stoops prior to taking

    over at KU (1999-’01) and is 0-2 SU/ATS vs his former boss (avg loss 30-7, L/gm in ‘05). KU is 12-38

    SU on the road under Mangino, but on an 8-2 ATS streak. KU is just 7-16 ATS as a DD dog. KU beat CU

    LW, but has been somewhat unimpressive in their 1st 2 conf gms (trailed ISU 20-0 at HT & only led CU

    16-14 after 3Q). QB Reesing is avg 330 ypg (72%) with a 15-3 ratio. OU has the off (#1-43) and D edges

    (#9-36). Stoops is 12-5 ATS off a SU loss and will put down the hammer here to get the bad taste out of

    the Sooners mouth (OU outscoring opp’s 110-6 in 1Q). FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 47 Kansas 20

    3* NEVADA over Utah St - UN leads the series 14-4 SU but is just 1-5 ATS (S/’97). UN has won the L/3

    but has dropped 2 of 3 gms in Reno. These two have avg 67 ppg over the L/11 and the visitor has won 7

    of 8 with the only exception being a 42-0 win by UN (-29) in ‘06. USU has won 3 of its L/4 WAC gms but

    has not won 3 or more conf gms in a ssn S/’03. Aggies QB Borel is avg just 112 ypg (53%) with a 6-5 ratio

    but he does lead the tm with 300 yds rushing. USU’s D needs to buckle down as it’s all’g 430 ypg (#105

    in the NCAA). The Aggies have an edge on ST (#97-110) but UN has the adv on off (#16-114). USU is

    3-17 SU & 8-12 ATS in conf AG’s S/’02 while UN is 14-3 ATS as a HF. QB Kapernick is avg 192 ypg (64%)

    with a 9-3 ratio while also rushing for 565 yds (8.6) with 9 TD’s & he’s a WAC POY candidate. Paired w/

    RB Taua (614 yds, 6.3 & 8 TD), UN is #3 in the NCAA in rush off avg 309 ypg which has enabled the Wolf

    Pack to hang onto the ball for an avg of 32:39 (#13 in the NCAA). UN’s run D has been stout all’g just 74

    ypg (#7 in the NCAA), but the Pack needs to shore up its pass D which is all’g 345 ypg (#119) as it caught

    up with them in LW’s loss. FORECAST: NEVADA 48 Utah St 20

    3* Ohio St over MICHIGAN ST - LY OSU dominated with a 422-185 yd edge but MSU got FR & IR TD’s

    in a 24-17 Bucks SU win (-18’). OSU has won their L/2 in E Lansing by an avg of 35-13 (-8 avg). OSU is

    12-3 as an AF & has won 12 straight B10 AG’s. Dantonio is 6-3-1 as a HD and has faced his mentor 3x

    (Tressel 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS). OSU beat Purdue 16-3 win but didn’t score an off TD and were outgained

    298-222 although the Boilers never made it inside the OSU 25. QB Pryor played like a frosh (124 ttl yds)

    and was held without a TD for the 1st time as a str. RB Wells (479, 6.7) was held to 94 yds (1st time under

    100 TY) and clearly was not 100% (foot and flu). OSU’s OL has allowed a conf worst 19 sks. Bucks have

    allowed 172 rush ypg (4. to the 2 pro style off’s they’ve faced (USC & Wisky) as the DL play has been

    inconsistent. MSU is off a 37-20 win over NW in which they were outgained 459-297 but took advantage of

    a +3 TO edge. This is RB Ringer’s (#2 NCAA 1112, 4.5) last shot at his home state school who denied him

    admission (49 yds on 18 carries LY). MSU has only faced 1 mobile QB TY (Indy’s Lewis who was hurt in

    the 1H) and allowed 473 yds vs IU. The off’s are even but OSU’s D (#2-45) & ST’s (#3-77) carry the day in

    a true battle of Tressel ball. In ‘03 we used Wisconsin as our GOY over the Spartans, an easy 56-21 winner.

    Will we go against the overrated Spartans again? FORECAST: Ohio St 24 MICHIGAN ST 14

    2* Florida Atl 30 WKU 20 - 1st meeting. This gm does not count in the Sun Belt standings but FAU is

    off a 30-17 loss to Troy. They are 7-2 SU vs conf foes on the road (WK joins in ‘09) and 3-0 as an AF. QB

    Smith is avg 228 ypg (48.8%) with a 5-9 ratio and WR Gent has 23 rec (15.3). This is WKU’s 8th straight

    gm and they are off a 24-7 loss vs Ball St. They were only outgained 355-352. QB Wolke (4 sts) was

    named the starter for rest of ssn and is avg 112 ypg (54%) with a 5-4 ratio (QB Black status unknown). WR

    Gaebler has 22 rec (10.4). FAU is in desperation mode and at 1-5 expect changes from Schnellenberger.

    FAU dominated Minny 42-39 with a 580-470 yd edge delivering as our 5H Sept GOM Winner LY. Do we

    roll with the Owls again? FORECAST: Florida Atl 30 WKU 20

    2* SOUTH CAROLINA (+) over Lsu - LSU is 15-2-1 SU all-time (series) & SC’s last win was in ‘94. LY LSU

    used a fake FG to score a TD & had a 290-17 yd rush edge in their 28-16 win but we won a 4H LPS on SC

    (+17’) on the road. This is SC’s first ranked opp (6-1-1 ATS vs them) in 5 wks and they have a bye on deck so

    they will give their “A” gm while LSU is off a road trip to Fla and has UGA on deck. LSU has not traveled here

    S/’03 and is 3-11 ATS vs the SEC East incl LW’s blowout loss to FL in which they were outgained 475-321.

    Miles is 4-1-1 ATS off a loss at LSU. DT Jean-Francois DNP LW (CS). Spurrier is 11-2 SU vs LSU but just 3-6-1

    as a HD. LSU excels in night gms (now 19-1 SU after LW’s loss). LSU RB Scott has 570 (6.9) but had a streak

    of 4 consec 100 rush gms stopped LW and also lost a fmbl for the first time TY. QB’s Lee & Hatch alternated

    LW & have comb to avg 220 ypg (57%) with a 7-6 ratio. SC QB Garcia (avg 100 ypg, 66%, 2-1 ratio) came off

    the bench LW to relieve an ineffective Smelley (182 ypg, 60% 9-10 ratio) and led the tm to 10 pts in the 4Q to

    beat KY 24-17 in Lexington. Spurrier is disappointed with the RB’s (Davis is top 354, 4.1). WR McKinley (20,

    10.3) broke SC’s rec record LW, but suffered 2 fmbls. SC has quietly put together 4 consec wins and needs 1

    more to be bowl elig. LSU has the edge on off (#19-63), but their young QB’s struggled on the road LW and

    this wk face an even stronger D (#10, LSU #22). FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 24 (+) Lsu 20

    2* W Michigan over C MICHIGAN - WM is 1-14-1 visiting Mt Pleasant with the win coming in ‘02. LY WM

    was in control early but wrongfully had their key offensive plyr WR Simmons ejected in the 2Q and CM got a

    TD with :12 left to pull out a 34-31 road win (-3). Last time here CM (-7) rolled 31-7. Both tms played Ohio and

    Temple TY going 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS. CM is off a 24-14 win over TU as a 7 pt HF but benefited from +3 TO as

    they were outgained 301-297. WM had 18-10 FD & 288-196 yd edge over TU but only won 7-3 as a 4 pt AF.

    WM had a 503-356 yd edges over Ohio winning 41-20 as a 7 pt HF. CM was outgained 513-431 by OU but

    won 31-28 as a 3’ pt AF as OU fmbl’d what could have been a gm winning TD into the EZ. CM QB LeFevour is

    avg 230 ypg (65%) with a 9-3 ratio and is the top rusher with 304 (3.. He left LW’s gm in the 2Q (ankle, CS).

    WM QB Hiller is avg 292 ypg (68%) with a 23-5 ratio. RB West leads with 633 (5.6). While CM has a slight off

    edge (#41-46), WM has a big D edge (#67-104). This tm has now won 6 in a row & they’ve been a staple at

    this spot for the L/3W and we’ll continue to ride. FORECAST: W Michigan 34 C MICHIGAN 27

    Thursday, October 16th -

    Florida St at NC STATE - Flor St asst coach Amato was the Wolfpack HC for 7

    yrs before being fired after ‘06 and makes his 1st trip back to Raleigh. NCSt has 4 outright upsets the last 7

    yrs of the series and is 6-1 ATS but those wins were all under Amato and he’s on the other sideline now.

    Byu at TCU - BYU’s 1st gm outside the state of Utah in over a month. TCU has all’d 36 ppg to BYU the

    L/3Y as they got a lucky SU win in Provo in ‘05, a gm they trailed big. LY TCU was down 24-9 but rallied for a

    backdoor TD w/3:49 left (+7’), 27-22. TCU is 1-5 SU on Thurs gms but 10-2 SU & ATS at home since joining

    the MWC (losses vs BYU & Utah). TCU is 5-1 as a HD & BYU is 0-2 TY as an AF but 10-4 SU (8-6 ATS) on

    Thurs nights. Two yrs ago, BYU’s win here delivered a Thurs Night Marquee & snapped the nation’s longest

    win streak (13). TY BYU enters with the nation’s longest win streak, but do they leave with it?

    Friday, October 17th - Hawaii at BOISE ST - This is a rematch of LY’s WAC Champ where #14 UH

    snapped #17 BSU’s 6 gm win streak in the series 39-27 (-2’) to claim the WAC Title & dealt the Broncos

    their 1st WAC loss in 3 yrs (S/’05). The Warriors have covered their L/3 vs the Broncos but BSU has simply

    dominated the WAC going 53-4 (93%)! The Broncos have never lost a conf home gm & own a 29 gm home

    win streak vs the WAC. This is the 1st of B2B Fri gms for BSU but the Broncos are right at home going

    12-3 ATS (15-2 SU) in weekday reg ssn gms S/’01, incl 8-1 ATS (11-0 SU) at home. While the numbers

    say Boise, don’t forget Hawaii has won 8 straight conf road gms.

    Saturday October 18th - RUTGERS 24 Connecticut 17 - UC Coach Edsell has owned Schiano at 5-0-1

    ATS in the series incl 3-0 ATS in New Brunswick but Rutgers holds an all-time 18-9 edge. LY on a very

    windy day, Conn rushed for 256 yds (6.6) in their 38-19 home win (Rutgers 511-396 yd edge). The series

    has been decided by a TD or less in 4 of 6. Rutgers is off to their worst start S/’02 when they went 1-11

    losing to Cincy 13-10 LW. QB Mike Teel is 195 ypg (55%) with a 3-7 ratio but now has top RB Young who

    has battled back from inj (78 yds, 3.5 LW). Conn is led by the NCAA’s leading rusher D Brown avg 178 ypg

    (5.. ND transfer QB Frazer (PS#7) will make his 2nd start here and will benefit from a bye. Rutgers (our

    #38 rush D) will look to capitalize on the inexp QB and will load up the box vs Brown. Both these teams were

    dominated by N Carolina. These 2 tms have similar D & ST’s rankings but Conn has the off edge (#49-89).

    Every game is a must-win and Schiano will have the Knights fired up in front of the home crowd.

    MARYLAND 20 Wake Forest 17 - LY Alphonso Smith’s 100 yd IR TD late 3Q jump started the Deacons

    miracle comeback (down 24-3) incl a TD with :03 left on 4th down to force OT. WF has never beaten UM 3

    straight years. In ‘06 here, it was a showdown for the ACC Atlantic Title and WF won 38-24 as a 1’ pt AD. MD

    is 4-2 with unexpected wins over then #20 Clemson and #23 Cal and surprising losses to MTSt & UVA. MD

    is 6-2 ATS as a dog vs ranked tms with 5 outright upsets. QB Turner is avg 164 ypg (58%) with a 6-6 ratio.

    RB Scott has 482 rush yds (5.4) and 8 rec (10.4). WR Heyward-Bey has 12 rec (22.2). WF is 2-0 TY in ACC

    play but has only managed 1 TD and won its 1st 2 league gms for the 1st time S/’87. QB Skinner is #1 in

    ACC pass eff avg 232 ypg (68%) with a 7-4. WR Boldin has 31 rec (10.0). MD has the off edge (#57-77) but

    WF has a solid D (#8-72) and schedule edge (#8-70). MD is off a bye and have been stewing for L/2 weeks

    about their embarrassing loss 31-0 to UVA and teams that beat CU the week prior are 1-4 ATS.

    Georgia Tech 17 CLEMSON 16 - LY GT upset #13 CU 13-3 as the Tigers missed 4 FG, had a punt blk’d to

    set up the only TD & fmbl’d a KR setting up a FG. The dog is 17-2 ATS but CU did cover in ‘06 here 31-7 (-7)

    which was GT’s only ACC reg ssn loss that yr. GT HC Johnson is 14-2 as an AD. Nine of the L/12 have been

    decided by 5 or less. CU has a bye on deck. CU’s off is banged up, 2 starters from the OL, RB Spiller & WR

    Grisham were all hurt in LW’s 12-7 loss to WF (CS) and once again the fans are calling for Bowden’s job. After

    the loss vs WF, Bowden announced rFr Willy Korn (PS#2) will replace Harper (preseason ACC POY) as the

    starting QB. In the 2 gms Korn has played in (both IAA) he has passed for 157 yd (78%) with 1 TD. LW GT’s

    QB Nesbitt missed his 2nd str gm (hamstring - exp back vs CU) and bkup Shaw was also out (concussion).

    Booker made his 1st career start and did not fit the triple-option (155 ttl off). In fact, GT struggled with just 79

    rush yd (210 below their avg) vs IAA Gardner-Webb as they barely pulled out the 10-7 win. These 2 matchup

    evenly on off (CU #53-58) and CU has a slight D edge (#21-31) however GT has one of the best DL’s in the

    country which should be able to stop CU’s run game especially with a banged up OL.

    EAST CAROLINA 30 Memphis 23 - LY Memphis all’d 491 rush yds, their most S/’82 (56-40, -5’ away),

    but Johnson had 301 and he is gone. The Pirates are off a 3rd consec defeat (35-20 to VA) and have lost

    the L/4 ATS. QB Pinkney mirrored the tm’s hot start, but has cooled down and completed just 36% (12-28)

    against a VA D that was getting consistent pressure. Pinkney is completing 68% on the ssn and is avg 206

    ypg with a 6-3 ratio. EC is 8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS in the series. EC is 17-9 ATS in CUSA play under Holtz,

    11-4 ATS vs the East. Mem is off a 35-28 loss to UL in which they outgained the Cardinals 481-299, but

    all’d FR & KR TD’s and also had a blocked FG ret’d for a TD. QB Hall threw for 350 yds (60%), but his

    fumble with the gm tied in the 4th was ret’d 21 yds for the GW score. Hall (258 ypg, 59% 9-6 ratio) and

    RB Steele (94 ypg, 6.3) lead our #45 off and the Tigers (3-4) are a few plays away from being 7-0, as they

    have outgained all but one (W vs UAB). The Tigers’ best DT McDonald left LW’s gm with an ankle inj (CS).

    With both teams off tough non-conf losses, expect a tight CUSA East battle.

    DUKE 17 Miami, Fl 10 - Last time here, UM was riddled by susp & needed an int on the last play to hold

    on for a 20-15 win (-17). LY at Miami, Duke only trailed 17-14 (+24) and was SOD at the UM30 and 2 plays

    later Miami got a TD with 2:15 left to win by 10. In their first 3 ACC meetings Miami has been favored by

    an avg of 25.6 ppg but figures to take this a little more seriously. Miami is 2-8 as an AF and while Duke is

    4-14 as a HD, Cutcliffe is 6-2 as a HD. Duke is off to its best start since 1994. Duke’s ground gm, however,

    is struggling only avg 66 ypg L/3 gms. QB Lewis is #2 in the ACC avg 194 ypg (60%) with a 7-3 ratio. WR

    Riley has 27 rec (10.2) & true Fr J Williams 20 (11.6). UM struggled LW vs UCF as QB Marve threw 3 int

    but UM’s D held UCF to just 78 ttl yds, their fewest allowed S/’99. On the yr QB Marve is avg 122 ypg (55%)

    with a 6-8 ratio. RB Cooper has 412 rush yds (5.0) and a tm high 13 rec (only 4.2). UM does have the edge

    on both sides of the ball (off #70-94, def #20-60), however Duke has the home, bye and QB edges.

    Virginia Tech 20 BOSTON COLLEGE 16 - LY VT had the game locked up but #2 BC got 2 TD’s in the last

    2:11 incl an onside kick recovery and won 14-10 in Blacksburg. VT won the ACC Title game 30-16 but that

    was a little misleading as they got a 39 yd IR TD with :11 left. In the two games BC all’d just 283 ypg. BC is

    6-2 ATS in the series and while VT is 5-1 SU in Chestnut Hill, BC has covered the L2 winning in ‘06 (22-3)

    as a HD. VT is 14-1 SU & 12-3 vs ACC. VT is 7-3 ATS as an AD and BC is 27-17-2 as a HF. QB Crane, who

    was named ACC Off POW after throwing for 428 yds vs NCSt, is avg 178 ypg (57%) with a 4-6 ratio for the

    season. True Fr M Harris (PS#159) has rushed for 313 yds (7.3). The Eagles have the edge on both sides of

    the ball (off #60-79, def #24-37). QB Taylor is avg 99 ypg pass (61%) with a 1-2 ratio and has rushed for 338

    yds (5.1). VT lost starting RB Lewis (ruptured Achilles vs WKU) but his bkup RB Evans has 415 yds (4.2).

    USF 41 Syracuse 6 - LY was memorable as we used USF (-16’) on the road as our 2007 College GOY

    and they rolled to a 41-10 lead after 3Q’s and won by that score with 346 yards rushing making them 3-0

    ATS in the series with the avg win 32-7. USF is 8-4 ATS at home. QB Grothe leads the Bulls and the BE

    with 258 ypg ttl off. The def has been hampered by inj’s the L/2 and will benefit from the bye. LW Syracuse

    outgained WV 346-268 but was unable to pull the upset. With HC Robinson on his way out the Orange

    have played well their L/3 gms. QB Dantley is avg 151 ypg (58%) with a 7-3 ratio and RB Brinkley has

    rushed for 476 yds (5.4). They now face a stout D that is #11 in NCAA in total def all’g 266 ypg. Syracuse

    has all’d 416 ypg on the road the L2Y. The Bulls have huge edges on offense (#26-54) and defense (#25-

    105) while Syr holds the ST edge (#21-54). Both these teams faced conf foe Pitt with the same results,

    losses. Pitt outgained Syr 407-263 and USF 374-245. HC Leavitt and the Bulls come in with a chip on

    their shoulder after falling from the Top 10. Could this be our next 5*?

    IOWA 23 Wisconsin 16 - UW HC Bielema is an ex-Iowa DB & assistant and has a Hawkeye tattoo. While he

    is 2-0 SU vs his alma mater those wins have been by 3 & 4. Here in ‘06 Iowa dropped a wide open 4th down

    pass at midfield and LY in Madison, Christensen missed an open WR by inches on 4th down on what would

    have been a TD both in the final minutes. Bielema is 4-7 ATS on the road but Iowa is 4-8 ATS as a HF. UW is

    off its worst home loss S/’89 as ST’s miscues & a costly TO set up PSU with a 24-7 halftime lead. QB Evridge

    started LW’s gm 2-10 & could lose his job. The OL played w/o LT Carimi (knee) & lost RG Urbik (knee, CS) vs

    PSU. UW has all’d 154 rush ypg (4.2) in B10 play. Iowa snapped a 3 gm slide with a 45-9 rout at Indy in which

    they outrushed Indy 227-95. Greene (#6 NCAA 937, 6.2) became the 1st RB in UI history to have 100 yds in

    the 1st 7 gms of a season. Hawks allow 98 rush ypg (3.1). Both came into ‘08 thinking B10 Title but regrouping

    Wisky is now in the conf basement at 0-3 while Iowa may have turned their season around.

    NORTHWESTERN 27 Purdue 17 - Purdue is 8-2 SU in the series incl 4-1 in Evanston (4-1 ATS) where their

    avg win is by 24.5 ppg. QB Painter had 3 career highs (35 of 49 for 431 yds) the last time PU visited Evanston.

    LY NW led 17-14 to start the 4Q on the road but PU had a 220-4 yd edge in the 4Q scoring 21 unanswered

    pts. NW is 0-7 ATS as a B10 fav while PU is 9-17-1 as an AD including LW’s cover vs OSU in which they

    outFD’d (18-14) & outgained (298-222) the Bucks but never got inside OSU’s 25. QB Painter (242 ypg, 55%,

    5-6 ratio) had 2 TO’s and slid to #91 in the NCAA pass eff (2nd lowest SR QB in nation). Young Boilers D is

    getting healthier & has held Penn St & OSU to 2 off TD’s. Two NW 1Q TO’s led to a 17-0 hole vs MSU which

    they could not climb out of as they lost 37-20 despite 27-18 FD and 459-297 yd edges. QB Bacher (#90 NCAA

    pass eff 221, 58%, 7-8 ratio) continues to struggle while RB Sutton has 603 yds (5.5). Cats D leads the league

    with 19 sks. Two struggling QB’s so the D’s (nearly even) & ST’s (NW #32-65) will decide this one.

    BOWLING GREEN 34 Miami, Oh 20 - Miami is the only MAC team BG does not have a winning SU record

    against incl the current 1-8 streak leading to what some alumni call the “Miami Whammy.” LY MU retired QB

    Roethlisberger’s #7 during pregame and then held BG to 25 yd rush (ssn low) in a 47-14 (-1) home win (BG 74

    yd gbg TD drive 1:06 left). Last time here, it was a mud bowl Thurs Nite gm and BG missed a short FG at the

    end (kicker slipped) and lost 9-7. Miami had a QB controversy LW but QB Raudabaugh held onto his starting job

    and is avg 198 ypg (57%) with a 4-5 ratio. The top rusher is RB Merriweather with 453 (3.9). Miami lost 17-13

    but covered as an 11 pt AD to a NI tm that was starting its 3rd string QB and scored its only TD on a 63 yd PR.

    We won a 4H LPS on BG, as they had a 419-367 yd edge over Akron in the 37-33 win. QB Sheehan is avg 241

    ypg (65%) with a 9-4 ratio. BG’s top rushers are RB’s Turner (238, 5.4) and Bullock (237, 4.2). MU holds the D

    edge (#84-111) but BG has the off edge (#62-112) and has played the tougher sked (#62-96).

    Nebraska 33 IOWA ST 24 - LY ISU ran a school rec 102 plays, led 10-0, had 415-369 yd & 28-17 FD edges

    but lost 35-17 (+21’) in Lincoln. NU is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS but lost SU in 2 of 3 trips here & the HT is 12-4 ATS.

    The Huskers are off a tough 1st road trip to Lubbock but did outgain TT (29-16 FD edge) in an OT loss and are

    coming off their toughest stretch of the ssn facing B2B elite B12 QB’s (all’d 273 ypg passing, 80%, 5-0 ratio).

    QB Ganz is avg 273 ypg (69%) with an 11-6 ratio. ISU was hammered by BU LW as they were outFD’d by 11,

    outgained by 178 & trailed 38-3 late. Incl 2-0 ATS TY, ISU is on a 7-2 ATS run at Jack Trice. Both tms are in

    desperate need of a win (no wins for either in over a month) and NU has the off edge (#17-82) and has played

    the tougher sked (#11-72). ISU has the ST edge (#40-112), can create TO’s (+7) and Chizik is 5-1 ATS as a HD

    with 3 outright upsets and almost pulling off 2 more (LY vs #4 OU & 2W ago vs #16 KU).

    TENNESSEE 20 Mississippi St 13 - Tenn has won 5 in a row in this series (4-1 ATS) by an avg of 41-17.

    LY UT WR Taylor had a career high 186 rec yds in a 33-21 road win (-7). Miss St is 8-14 ATS vs the SEC

    East, but LW they upset #12 Vandy (+1’) winning a 4H LPS for us. MSt outgained VU 247-107 and outFD’d

    them 16-7 in their 17-14 win. UT is in a Georgia/Bama sandwich and at 2-4 this is the worst start in the

    Fulmer era. UT was outgained 458-209 by GA and outFD’d 29-10 in their 26-14 loss. UGA held UT to 1

    yd rush with RB Foster held to 3 yds rush (341, 5.0 on yr). New UT QB Stephens has avg 182 ypg (49%)

    with a 3-0 ratio in his 2 starts. MSt QB Lee is a former walk-on who has avg 128 ypg (60%) in his first 2

    sts with a 2-0 ratio. MSt RB Dixon has 427 (4.4) and rushed for 107 (4.0) vs Vandy. MSt is 7-3-1 as an AD

    but UT is 5-2-1 as HF. With both tms starting out at 2-4, this is a must-win for both if they hope to avoid a

    losing season and Fulmer desperately needs a win to quiet his detractors. UT has edges on off (#56-102)

    and def (#11-38), but MSt may have more momentum off their big win.

    ALABAMA 23 Mississippi 20 - LY the Rebels led 24-17 in the 4Q & later had a 41 yd pass to the 7 overturned

    with :07 left. Fans threw bottles & garbage onto the field and Saban said “If Ole Miss fans want to be classless,

    that’s their business.” Bama has won the L/3 by exactly 3 pts each time despite being 14, 16 and 6’ pt favs. The

    HT is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS but the fav is 2-5. Saban is 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) vs Nutt in their careers, but Saban has won

    the L/3 SU and is on a 3-1 ATS run. Nutt is 10-2 as an AD incl 7-0 ATS vs Top 20 tms on the road covering by 16’

    ppg with 3 upsets incl beating #2 Aub and #1 LSU while at Ark and a near upset of #16 WF and an upset of #4

    Fla TY at Ole Miss. Bama is 3-17 as a HF incl a 2 pt win over KY (-15) in their last outing. Despite UA being ranked

    #2 and UM being unranked, the differences aren’t that wide with Bama having slight off (#18-27), def (#12-49)

    edges and UM having a slight ST’s edge (#43-63). If Bama’s D has a weakness it’s vs the pass (our #26) as they

    all’d UGA’s Stafford to pass for 274 and have all’d 244 ypg in 3 SEC gms. UM QB Snead has avg 212 ypg (55%)

    with a 9-9 ratio. Tide QB JPW has struggled at times TY and with the running gm being featured is only avg 142

    ypg (60%) with a 6-2 ratio. Bama RB Coffee has 708 yds (7.5) while UM has split carries between Bolden (297,

    5.4) and Eason (248, 4.2). Bama’s D is all’g just 51 ypg rush (2.3) and UM has only all’d 113 ypg rush (3.0), so

    the tm with the stronger passing gm will have and adv and right now that is Ole Miss.

    GEORGIA 31 Vanderbilt 10 - The visitor is 12-4 ATS. LY UGA was in a Tenn/Florida sandwich and hit a

    37 yd FG with no time left for a 20-17 come-from-behind win. They were lucky to force a Vandy fmbl at the

    GA 7 with 2:43 left. The last time in Athens, VU won 24-22 for their 1st road win over a ranked opponent

    ever. UGA is once again off Tenn but this time they are off a big win that was more dominating than the final

    indicates as they had 458-209 yd & 29-10 FD edges and held UT to 1 yd rushing but only won by 12. UGA

    has LSU and then Florida on deck! VU may suffer a letdown after climbing to #13 in the AP poll with their

    5-0 start and then losing by a FG at Miss St LW while trying to clinch their 1st bowl bid since 1982. UGA

    QB Stafford has avg 251 ypg (62%) with an 8-3 ratio. RB Moreno has 590 (5.6). VU QB’s Nickson & Adams

    have alternated but only avg 90 ypg (53%) with a 5-3 ratio comb though Nickson is the tm’s #2 rusher (317,

    4.3). RB Hawkins leads VU with 333 yds (4.2). UGA has a huge edge on off (#10-100) and a decent edge

    on def (#7-28), but the situation favors Vandy this wk because no matter how hard Richt tries to convice

    his tm that VU is for real, they can only bring their “A” gm so many times in a row. The winner of this keeps

    pace with Florida in the East and both are off misleading finals (see News & Notes).

    E MICHIGAN 26 Akron 23 - Last met in ‘03 and the dog has covered 5 in a row. The HT has won 7 in a row

    SU as UA last won in Ypsilanti in ‘92. This is a rarity TY as a MAC West tm is a dog to a MAC East tm. UA has

    gone 4-0 ATS on the road with 3 str outright wins. Both played Army & BG and both are 1-1 SU & ATS but in

    opposite gms. Akron had 18-15 FD and 357-223 yd edges over Army and won 22-3 as a 10 pt AF, but that was

    Army’s 3rd gm with their new option off. LW EM was outFD’d 17-16 and outgained 341-255 losing 17-13 to Army

    as a 1 pt AD. EM had 23-18 FD & 410-388 yd edges over BG and won 24-21 as a 20’ AD. LW we won a 4H

    LPS against UA, as they were outFD’d (25-22) and outgained (419-367) losing 37-33 at home. EM has Ball St

    on deck but UA has a bye and won’t play again until Nov 5th. Akron QB Jacquemain is avg 231 ypg (59%) with

    a 12-10 ratio. The Zips top rusher is RB Kennedy with 473 (4.7). EM QB Schmitt is avg 134 ypg and has 126

    (4.1) rush yds. Their top 2 rushers are RB Blevins (380, 4.9) and RB Priest (377, 5.4).

    UTAH 38 Colorado St 10 - UT is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS (series) and LY dominated 27-3 (-5’). LW UT benefited from

    3 WY TO’s, leading to 3 scores as they were actually outgained (252-242) & outFD’d (14-11) in a 40-7 pounding

    of the Pokes. QB Johnson (206 ypg, 65%, 11-6 ratio) was held to 110 yd pass in cold, gusty winds. RB’s Asiata

    (410, 5.0) & Mack (378, 4.6) only comb for 52 yds, but still account for 70% of the rush yds TY. LW CSU gained

    32 yd rush (TCU all’d 22 ypg rush) on its gm-opening TD drive, but then struggled as they actually finished w/11

    rush yds (all’d 6 sk, -51 yd). The scoring was over (13-7) w/6:52 left 2Q although CSU did have a chance to go

    ahead but 2 TD rec’s were dropped in the EZ. QB Kubiak ply’d the 2H to try & spark the off hitting 12-24 for 121

    yd with an 0-1 ratio. RB Johnson (521, 4.5) seemed to be battling an inj on and off LW (CS). Even with the above

    avg performance the L/2W, CSU’s avg loss in AG’s is by 28 ppg (both vs tms below UT’s caliber) and they’re 0-3

    ATS the gm after facing a tough TCU D (avg loss by 18 ppg - all vs SDSt). The Utes have huge edges here on off

    (#28-97), D (#30-75) and ST’s (#9-118) which has us calling for UT to take its undefeated rec’d into the bye.

    Texas Tech 45 TEXAS A&M 17 - TT is 10-3 SU vs A&M, but all 3 losses were at Kyle Field & the Red Raiders

    haven’t won 4 straight in this rivalry S/’70-’73. TT is 15-4 ATS and has only been favored 5 times vs A&M, covering

    all 5 but has not been favored in College Station in 32+ yrs. TT escaped NU in OT LW to remain unbeaten and

    has scored no less than 35 in any gm TY (outgaining foes on ssn by 197 ypg, 25 pt avg MOV). QB Harrell is

    avg 385 ypg (68%) with a 20-3 ratio. His #1 target WR Crabtree has 43 rec (15.2) with 10 TD (broke school rec

    LW). A&M lost to KSU LW but moved the ball well with 544 off yds but is 2-4 SU (2 shaky wins) & 1-5 ATS at

    the halfway mark in Sherman’s 1st yr. A&M is 0-4 ATS at Kyle Field and is ranked #95 in our pass eff def all’g

    163 ypg (64%) with a 6-3 ratio and the Aggies hadn’t faced a Top 50 pass off till LW (all’d 234 yds, 81%). QB

    Johnson had a tremendous outing LW with 487 ttl yds (419 pass, 3 TD). The Red Raiders have big off (#5-64)

    and surprisingly def (#40-94) & ST (#84-105) edges. Tech once again should have an easy time posting big

    numbers vs a A&M squad still adjusting to the change from an option based to pro-style offense facing by far

    their toughest opp to date. With the many B12 upsets TY, Leach will stress not to let up. TT was one of our

    favorite GOM Winners with a 70-10 win over Neb, would we go with the Raiders again?

    RICE 41 Southern Miss 27 - LY Rice was outgained 422-236 but was +5 TO’s in its 31-29 upset. The TO’s

    put Rice up 31-7 after 3Q, but SM’s 2nd string QB Reaves rallied the team in the 4Q but they missed a

    late 2 pt conv and lost (-20’). SM is 10-3 SU on the road vs CUSA West tms but this is their first trip here

    and Rice is 27-15-1 ATS in conf games incl 9-3 at home. Rice is fresh off a bye, but suffered a 63-28 loss

    at Tulsa the previous wk and needs a win to keep any CUSA West title hopes alive. QB Clement (291 ypg,

    16-4 ratio) and WR Dillard (46, 14.7, 11 TD) are the most prolific TD tandem in NCAA history, hooking up

    42 times for scores. Rice is #15 in the nation avg 39 ppg and is scoring even more in CUSA play (42 ppg).

    SM is off a 24-7 home loss to #15 Boise St in which the Eagles’ new no-huddle spread attack was held to

    just 278 yds and rFr QB Davis’ record of 5 consec gms with over 200 yds came to an end. SM is desperate

    for a win after 3 SU/ATS losses, but Clement, Dillard and our #32 off will be too much for the Eagles #76 D.

    The Owls put SM’s bowl (6) and winning ssn (14) streaks in serious jeopardy.

    Usc 52 WASHINGTON ST 3 - The Trojans make their 1st road trip since their upset loss in Corvallis. Things

    have turned back in their favor as they have dominated their L/2 gms by a combined 72-10 margin incl

    Carroll’s 9th shutout in his tenure LW vs ASU. LY USC held Wash St to a ssn low 247 yds in a 47-14 home

    win (-25) but they did struggle in their last trip to Pullman escaping with a 28-22 win (-16’). The Cougs are

    off yet another embarrassing loss to OSU and have now given up 63+ pts in 3 of 4 conf gmsfa while being

    outgained by a 468-214 clip vs IA opponents going 0-6 ATS. Fourth string walk-on rFr QB Wagner could be

    forced to start here (no career att’s) after taking over mid 4Q for the inj’d Lobbestael (CS). His first test is

    a monumental one as WSU has our #111 off while the Trojans line up with our #1 overall def. Despite their

    Pacific NW woes in recent yrs (0-6 ATS incl 3 outright losses), the Trojans have covered 4 of the L/5 vs WSU

    (43-15 avg score) which will likely mean another long day for the Cougar faithful in the Palouse.

    Pittsburgh 34 NAVY 24 - These 2 tms combined for 93 pts & 915 ttl yds LY in Navy’s OT win which snapped

    a streak of 4 SU Pitt wins in a row. The HT is 4-1 ATS and Navy is 23-12 ATS off a bye. The Middies are just

    2-7 SU on HC games and Pitt is also off a bye giving them extra prep time for the option. Pitt is off another

    huge win over a Top 25 team (3rd straight) defeating USF 26-21. After a disappointing start “Shady” McCoy

    has delivered two 140+ rush efforts, the last vs a Top 10 rush D. Navy is off a win over rival Air Force, a

    game in which they were outgained & needed 2 blk’d punts for the win. QB Kaheaku-Enhada did not play

    and is questionable (CS). Navy brings their #2 rush attack (314 ypg) and they now face a D all’g 118 ypg

    rush (3.7). Pitt has a huge edge on def (#19-100) and has played our #29 toughest schedule. The Panthers

    have momentum they haven’t had under Wannstedt and will avenge last year’s loss.

    North Carolina 30 VIRGINIA 20 - This matchup is billed as the South’s Oldest Rivalry & this is the 113th

    meeting. The HT is 17-5 ATS (Virg 8-1 ATS). LY VA needed 5 Chris Gould FG’s (UVA rec) incl a career best 51

    yd’r to defeat NC. NC failed to cover vs ND giving us our Top LPS 4H Winner and the Heels are off to their best

    start (5-1) since winning the 1st 8 gms in 1997 and are just 1 win away from being bowl elig. NC was 0-6 LY on

    the road but is 2-0 TY. Other than vs Duke, NC has not been a conf AF S/’01. Carolina secured its 2nd win by 7

    or less pts TY after losing 6 close gms LY. QB Sexton, who has started 3 for the inj’d Yates, is avg 187 ypg (57%)

    with a 3-1 ratio. WR Tate, who sprained his ankle LW (CS), is avg 164 all-purp ypg (#1 ACC). WR Nicks has 33 rec

    (16.. Virg has covered 8 st’r here winning SU by 16 ppg. RB Peerman, who was hampered w/inj, has rushed for

    2 consecutive 100+ gms guiding the Cavs to 2 straight wins after starting the season 0-3 vs BCS foes. QB Verica

    is avg 159 ypg (66%) but w/a 3-7 ratio (3-2 L/2). WR Ogletree has 31 rec (12.4) and TE Phillips 25 (9.3). The Tar

    Heels have lost 13 in a row SU in Charlottesville, however, Missouri snapped its 15 gm losing streak early TY at

    Neb. We used NC as our Oct GOM over Virginia in ‘05, will we go with the Heels again as our big play?

    NORTHERN ILLINOIS 31 Toledo 14 - N Illinois is 38-12 SU at home but amazingly Toledo has won 6 in a row

    SU in DeKalb. For the 1st time in Power Sweep’s long history we will call for a team that was 2-10 LY to have a

    legitimate revenge gm as LY Toledo (-3’) at home embarrassed an inj depleted Huskie team 70-21 with a MAC

    record 812 yds offense. NIll is 9-1 SU on HC (avg win 23 ppg). Toledo is 6-13 as an AD. The Huskies beat Miami

    17-13 LW, but failed to cover (-11) for the 1st time TY (4-1 ATS) as 3rd string QB Grady made his 1st start due to

    inj’s (CS). NIU had a 326-284 yd edge but all’d a 63 yd PR TD. While the offenses are very close (UT#88-92), the

    Huskies have the D edge (#50-88). Toledo is off a huge upset of Mich as one of the keys was a 100 yd IR TD. This

    despite UT’s offense not scoring a TD in over 10Q. UT QB Opelt is avg 188 ypg (61%) with a 7-3 ratio. Their top

    rushers are RB’s Collins (436, 7.3) and M Williams (314, 4.1). NIU 3 QB’s have combined to avg 172 ypg (58%)

    with a 7-3 ratio. They have a RB-by-committee but M Brown has two 100+ gms and leads with 348 (5.4).

    Marshall 34 UAB 27 - Marshall has won all 3 meetings, but only by an avg of 32-27. They blew a 28-7 HT

    lead needing a TD w/1:07 left to pull out the 46-39 victory LY. Marshall is fresh off a bye while UAB is off a

    45-20 loss at Houston and is playing for the 8th straight wk. UAB actually led UH 20-3 at HT, but an IR TD

    and a fumbled snap on a punt gave the momentum back to the Cougars and they rolled with 42 unanswered

    2H points. UAB was outgained 549-352, with 277 coming in the 1H. QB Webb (588, 5.1) continues to make

    plays with his legs, but also continues to make critical errors when putting the ball in the air. LW Webb threw

    an int in the EZ, had another ret’d for a TD and has an 8-9 ratio TY. Marshall is happy to see a CUSA opp

    after dropping 2 gms to BE opps (WV, Cincy) before the bye. Marshall is 1-3 off a bye with Snyder, but is

    2-1 ATS vs UAB. The Blazers are 1-3-1 as a conf HD under Callaway, but Marshall has only been a conf AF

    twice (0-1-1) S/’05. Marshall has the edge on D (#89-114) and needs this win to have a shot at becoming

    bowl eligible, so look for a fresh Herd team to wear down a tired UAB squad.

    PENN ST 34 Michigan 3 - Paterno has lost NINE in a row SU to Michigan, the longest losing streak to any team

    in his career. PSU has avg’d just 17 ppg. UM’s last 4 wins have been in OT, by 2 (last second TD after officials put

    :02 back on clock), 7 and 5. PSU is 13-6-1 as a HF (3-1 TY) but UM is 7-2 as an AD. UM is on just their 2nd road

    trip and they were swamped, 35-17 (-2) in the rain at ND (trailed 21-0 in the 1Q). PSU is off a 48-7 plastering of

    Wisky and is 7-0 for the 1st time S/’99 (last time they were ranked #1). QB Clark leads the league in pass eff

    (194 ypg, 64%, 10-2) while RB Royster has 719 (7.3). Williams is the only NCAA player with 3 ret TD’s TY. Lions

    have 19 sks & lead the league in ttl D. UM is off its 1st ever loss to a MAC school, a 13-10 loss to Toledo in which

    the Rockets ret’d an int 100 yds for a TD and a 14 pt swing and UM missed a 26 yd FG with :04 left. QB Threet

    (elbow & thigh) left LW’s game at the half and Sheridan hit 8-16 with 2 int. The Wolves have 19 TO’s and 15 TD’s

    and have allowed 35 ppg to BCS conf foes TY. The Lions lost out on playing for a national title in ‘05 thanks to

    the Wolves & Paterno will make sure that this one doesn’t come down to the last play.

    NEW MEXICO 27 San Diego St 6 - NM has won 7 in a row SU (11-2 ATS) but LY SDSt was driving when

    O’Connell fmbl’d & NM got the gm winning TD w/:15 left (-8’, 20-17). NM has dominated recently as in the L/5,

    they’ve forced 17 SDSt TO’s (incl 13 int) & in the L/2 they’ve outgained them 965-591. LW vs BYU, NM appeared

    to pull within 14-10 on a 14 yd TD pass mid-4Q but a pen negated it & NM was SOD. After the gm a visibly irate

    Long said that call “took the gm away from our players.” He used both QB’s Gruner & T. Smith (walk-on soph)

    who comb hit 13-22 for 155 yd with an 0-1 ratio (tm still not over 1000 yd pass TY). The D (16 sks) couldn’t get

    to QB Hall all night & NM was outgained 382-285 in a 21-3 loss. NM has won 3 in a row in the altitude vs SDSt

    incl 41-14 (-10’) in ‘06. SDSt is severely limited by inj’s (16 missed LW, 7 out yr), incl on the DL which did not help

    vs AF (all’d 401 yd rush). QB Lindley DNP (CS) and Westling hit 18-35 for 128 with an 0-2 ratio as SDSt was

    outgained 473-165. After avg 303 ypg pass (w/Lindley), they have avg 114 & given up 9 sks the L/2.The Lobos

    have won a big play for us before (‘01 College GOY over UNLV) and this very disappointed NM will find a way to

    bounce back & keep in mind they are 6-1 ATS the gm after BYU.

    Kansas St 33 COLORADO 30 - In 1996 CU delivered our College GOY winner over KSU (12-0, -5’). Prince

    is 2-0 SU/ATS vs Hawkins with the avg win by 20 ppg. LY KSU was 3-0 as an AD with an outright upset over

    Texas. The Wildcats snapped a 3 gm SU/ATS slide LW vs A&M and Prince might be looking at a must win

    here with OU on deck. KSU was outgained by close to 100 yds vs the Aggies and has now all’d 500+ yds for

    4 straight wks. QB Freeman is avg 252 ypg (66%) with a 12-2 ratio. CU is 8-4 as a HF & the HT is 5-1 ATS.

    LW CU lost to KU and finds itself 0-3 SU & ATS the L3W. QB Hawkins is avg 169 ypg (57%) with an 11-6

    ratio & is coming off an awful outing (90 yds, 36%, 2 int) as HC Hawkins inserted Ballenger (5-8 for 57 yds).

    KSU does have the off (#25-75) & a huge ST edge (#2-106), but CU has the better D (#57-91) & is ranked

    #54 in our pass eff def all’g 195 ypg (68%) with a 5-7 ratio. Hawkins also has to be thinking must win with

    MU on deck (only HG in 4 wks) and the loser with have a tough time becoming bowl eligible.

    OKLAHOMA ST 34 Baylor 27 - OSU is 10-5-1 as a B12 HF, 11-1 SU vs BU (avg win by 24 ppg) and

    since the Bears upset Gundy in his 1st yr, OSU has won & covered the L/2 66-24 & 45-14. Gundy did

    lose to Briles in ‘05 as UH won at home 35-24 (-1). OSU stunned Missouri 28-23 LW (led 28-17) to

    remain undefeated and is 6-0 (5-0 ATS) for just the 2nd time S/’45. QB Robinson is avg 208 ypg (71%)

    with a 12-4 ratio. RB Hunter has 862 yds (6.9). BU waxed ISU 38-10 LW (38-3 mid 4Q, +178 yd edge)

    snapping its 13 gm B12 losing skid and at 3-3 has bought into Briles schemes but is 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS

    on the B12 road lately. QB Griffin is avg 185 ypg (62%) with a 9-0 ratio and is #2 in rushing (389 yds, 5.2)

    accounting for 63% of the off. The L5Y, BU has all’d OSU to rush for an avg of 282 ypg (6.0, 3-300+ gms)

    and the Cowboys are ranked #4 in rush off TY (avg 294 ypg, 5.9). OSU has off (#8-42), def (#51-69) &

    ST edges (#11-82), but finds themselves in a tough B12 sandwich with UT on deck. BU is just 2-9-2 ATS

    vs OSU, but did almost pull the outright upset at Conn in their only other RG this ssn.

    BUFFALO 24 Army 17 - Buffalo is 3-2-1 as a HF in their history but they have never been a DD fav. The

    Bulls have the off (#71-120) & D (#78-90) edges and a HUGE schedule edge (#20-115). Army’s wishbone

    should hold few surprises for the Bulls’ HC Gill who was a Nebraska QB & coach. Army had a 284-250 yd

    edge vs Temple but lost 35-7 as a 7 pt HD. Buff had a 449-389 yd edge vs TU and won 30-28 as a 6’ pt

    HF. Army beat EM 17-13 to end a 5 gm home losing streak. They outgained EM 341-255 despite being

    -2 TO and not completing a pass. Buff is off a heartbreaking OT loss as they led W Mich 28-14 with less

    than 5:00 left and had an IR TD called back on a roughing pen. The Bulls are led by QB Willy, who avg

    243 ypg (61%) with a 12-4 ratio. RB Starks leads with 515 yds (4.7). Army’s offense is led by FB Mooney

    with 645 (5.7) and QB Bowden who has just 54 yds passing but 315 (3.4) rushing.

    TULSA 48 Utep 34 - LY QB Vittatoe set a UTEP frosh record w/319 pass yds, throwing a TD pass w/:58

    left for the 48-47 win (Tulsa miss FG last play). These 2 have avg’d 76 ppg the L5Y and the HT is 6-1

    SU, but just 2-4 ATS and the dog has covered 4 straight. The last time in Tulsa, UTEP (+15) looked like

    they would win outright leading 20-6 mid-3Q but lost 30-20. The Miners have 3 SU wins in a row and are

    coming off a 24-21 (-4) home win over Tulane. Vittatoe threw for 296 yds and 3 TD’s and has thrown 7

    TD’s the L/2W. Tulsa is on a 4-1 ATS run with an avg cover by 17 ppg, but is coming off its 1st ATS loss,

    struggling to a 37-31 (-24’) win at SMU despite racking up 602 yds. UTEP switched to a 3-3-5 D TY and

    has been successful forcing 14 TO’s (6 int, 8 fmbl), but is only #99 in our rankings. Tulsa has our #6 off

    and has plenty of experience playing against the 3-3-5 as they run the same D and put up 56 pts vs N

    Mex’s 3-3-5. Tulsa has our #107 D, so expect another high scoring game. Tulsa should stay undefeated

    and keep its’ BCS hopes alive, but it could be another challenge against an improving UTEP team.

    NEW MEXICO ST 30 San Jose St 27 - These two both made our Most Improved list. SJSt leads the

    series 13-2 SU (7-2 ATS) as they have won the L/4 & are a perfect 7-0 at Las Cruces. Last time here

    (’06), NMSt jumped out to a 21-6 lead before SJSt scored 23 unanswered pts for a 31-21 victory (-6’) &

    LY SJSt scored the most pts of the Tomey era in a 51-17 victory (-4). SJSt QB Reed is becoming more

    comfortable & avg 186 ypg (an impressive 72%) with a 7-3 ratio. With LY’s leading WR Jurovich still

    sidelined with mono (CS), Richmond has picked up the slack & is the go-to WR with 36 (11.3). SJSt is

    pinning its ears back & going after the QB ranking #7 in the NCAA with 19 sacks led by the duo of DL

    Ihenacho (6) & LB Cole (5). SJSt has the edge on D (#32-112) but NMSt gets the nod on off (#36-103).

    However, NMSt is riding high after LW’s 48-45 road win over Nev as the “Air Raid” offense torched UN’s

    D rolling up 513 ttl yds. QB Holbrook passed for 409 yds & 3 TD & is avg 306 ypg (65%) with a 13-6

    ratio. NMSt is #5 in the NCAA in pass off (339 ypg) & while the Aggies have 3 WR’s with 25+ rec’s, the

    surprise has been Anderson who has 18 (18.7) & a tm-high 7 TD. NMSt got a late start to its ssn but the

    Aggies appear to be hitting their stride.

    Houston 38 SMU 35 - Houston is 8-2-1 SU vs their old SWC rival. LY UH led 31-14 at half but only

    won 38-28 (-19) in SMU’s 1st game after HC Bennett was told he wouldn’t return. The visitor is 6-1 ATS

    and the dog is 7-3. UH is 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS vs SMU S/’00. Houston is starting to gain confidence in

    their spread offense avg 545 ypg and has established some balance as true Fr RB Beall has 2 str 100

    yd rush gms. QB Keenum leads the NCAA in ttl off avg 407 ypg with a 21-5 ratio. SMU is also showing

    improvement in their new off and may have turned the corner LW vs Tulsa in a 37-31 loss. The Mustangs

    finally put some “run” in HC Jones’ Run n’ Shoot, gaining a ssn high 151 yds (61 previous high) on theground.

    QB Mitchell is feeling more comfortable in the system and has thrown for 669 yds (61%) and 5

    TD’s the L/2 wks. Houston has a large edge on off (#23-96), but the gap has been closing as Mitchell

    has matured, and both tms struggle on D (UH #87, SMU #116). The Cougars should move the ball at

    will vs an SMU D that all’d 602 yds to Tulsa LW, but the Mustangs should put up their fair share of points

    as well and get their 2nd straight cover.

    ILLINOIS 38 Indiana 17 - Indy is 2-24 SU in Big Ten RG’s & IL had won 10 in a row SU at home in the

    series before Indy’s 34-32 (+8’) upset in ‘06. LY IL won on the road 27-14 (-2’) with a 288-134 rush edge

    & sk’d Indy QB Lewis 7x. Indy is 7-17 as a conf AD. IL is 1-4 as a DD HF under Zook incl LW’s upset loss

    to Minny in which they outgained the Gophers 550-312 but they were SOD late 3Q on 2 tries at the UM

    1 and also couldn’t overcome a -2 TO margin which included a FR TD. QB Williams (#4 NCAA ttl off)

    has set stadium records the L2W with 934 ttl yds with 6 TD’s. IL D hasn’t had an int in the L/4 gms. QB

    Lewis (ankle) left at the half of a 17-9 game but Iowa scored 28 straight to blow out the Hoosiers for their

    4th straight loss (outscored by a combined 66-7 in the 2H). Hoosiers are allowing 187 rush ypg (3.9) in

    their losing streak & their DB’s have just 1 int on the yr. IL’s #13 off should have their way with IN’s #82

    D and they may have gotten the wake-up call they needed LW.

    UNLV 31 Air Force 24 - The HT is 4-1 ATS but AF is 9-3 SU and UNLV is just 8-25 SU in MWC HG’s

    (13-20 ATS). LV beat AF here in ‘06, 42-39 (+10’, led 42-31) with a 555-415 yd edge. LY LV had a 471-432

    yd edge but lost on the road 31-14 (+5’). AF has had 2 misleading gms TY as Hou was distracted (Ike)

    and Utah had a 2-1 ydg edge but only won by 3, and LW faced SDSt w/o its QB and had a 473-165 yd

    edge. AF did gain 401 yds rush LW, led by Fr Asher Clark (109) and Fr QB Jefferson got his 1st start after

    filling in admirably when Smith was sick 2W ago. AF D is led by Paulson who is #1 in the NCAA with 9

    sks. LV is off a bye giving them extra prep time for the option while AF is in its 2nd consec AG. LV had

    a wk to forget about its loss to CSU who scored 13 pts in :09 for a misleading 41-28 final. LV is one of

    just 3 NCAA tms to be 100% in the redzone, led by QB Clayton. He avg 213 ypg (58%) with a 14-2 ratio

    while RB Summers has 515 rush yd (4.5) & Wolfe has 40 rec (12.4). LV has excellent position players

    which should prove too much for the Falcons. Look for UNLV to get its 1st MWC win here.

    UCLA 23 Stanford 20 - Looking at their remaining schedule, the Cardinal have to believe this is a must

    win gm to keep bowl hopes alive as WSU is the only other tm they face w/a losing record. SU rallied in

    the final minutes to knock off AZ LW led by 3rd string QB Loukas who filled in for the inj’d Pritchard (CS)

    & the ineffective Forcier. They continue to be a run first offense led by the RB duo of Gerhart & Kimble

    who have combined for 1060 yds (6.0) TY. Their defense has been extremely susceptible in the pass

    gm allowing a conf-worst 272 ypg (66%) with a 10-3 ratio. In LY’s matchup UCLA racked up 624 ttl yds

    spoiling Harbaugh’s Stanford coaching debut 45-17. UCLA has TWO shutout wins the L4Y against the

    Cardinal but face struggles of their own after more disappointment in Eugene LW (outrushed 323-63 but

    never trailed ATS in a 31-24 loss). The HT in this series is 8-2 SU and 6-2-2 ATS while UCLA is 22-7 ATS

    at home & 17-4 ATS off a loss making us lean toward the hometown Bruins in this one.

    LOUISVILLE 37 Middle Tenn 13 - LY’s game featured 1,284 yds and 13 TD’s. MT had just 217 yds in

    their ‘07 opener but shredded UL on a Thurs Nite gm for 555 and easily covered (+40’) 42-58. In their

    last 5 lined gms vs SBC tms, UL is 4-1 & 3-2 ATS outscoring them 259-83. LW we won our Friday Night

    Marquee on the Over in UL’s 35-28 win over Memphis. With Cantwell not 100% (CS) the ST’s picked up

    the slack with a KR TD & blk’d FG for a TD. Mid Tenn is off a 31-21 loss to FIU, a team that had won 3

    games in 2 years. QB Craddock is avg 228 ypg (65%) with a 7-4 ratio but stop him and you stop the Blue

    Raiders. They now face a UL team that is all’g 252 ypg at home TY. Both these teams lost to Kentucky

    with MT outgaining the Cats 383-356 while UL was outgained 251-205. UL has the off (#34-110) and D

    edges (#64-83) and will look to get back their home field swagger.

    ULM 44 North Texas 23 - Last time hosting NT (‘06), ULM held them to just 137 yds (23-3, -7). LY NT

    benefitted from TWO IR TD’s and a short pass turned into a 99 yd TD and NT (+7) at home pulled the

    upset 31-21 costing ULM a winning season. LW we won a 4H Totals Play on the Over in the NT/ULL gm

    and a 3H Small College Play on ULM (+14’). NT is off 59-30 loss vs ULL and is 1 of 2 tms still winless.

    QB Vizza is avg 230 ypg (63%) with a 6-7 ratio with 7 int coming in the L/3 gms. WR Fitzgerald has 55

    rec (11.4). ULM is off 37-29 loss vs Ark St turning the ball over 3x after having just 3 ttl TO’s in their 1st

    5 gms. They were held to just 87 yds rush. QB Lancaster is avg 190 ypg (57%) with an 8-2 ratio. WR

    McNeal has 26 rec (14.0). ULM will be bringing their “A” gm after B2B conf losses and NT will be looking

    for their 1st victory (1-5 ATS TY).

    LOUISIANA-LFT 41 Arkansas St 38 - LY QB Leonard set a school rec w/5 TD passes as ASU set

    another rec with 681 yds offense in a 52-21 (-9) home win and held ULL to a season low 133 yards rush.

    Seven of the L/9 have been decided by 6 pts or less with the home team winning 8 straight. ASU is off

    a 37-29 win vs ULM turning 3 ULM turnovers into 13 pts. ASU had 269 yds but was held to 122 in 2H.

    They have the SBC’s best rush def all’g just 122 ypg. QB Leonard is avg 207 ypg (54%) with a 10-2 ratio.

    Last time at home, ULL rushed for 265 (6.5) in a 28-23 (-6) home win. ULL is off a 59-30 win vs N Texas

    with WR Chery scoring all five of ULL’s 1H scores and Fenroy becoming the all-time leading rusher in

    SBC history. ULL (#14 off) is avg 332 ypg rush but 447 yds rush vs their 2 SBC foes. QB Desmoreaux

    is avg 179 ypg (63%) with a 6-5 ratio. RB Fenroy has 842 ttl yds (7. and Chery has 26 rec (16.2). This

    is the first of 3 straight road gms for ASU (5 of L/6 are AG) and the first of 3 str home gms for ULL (4 of

    L/6 are HG). ULL is 5-1 ATS TY and both teams are still in the SBC Title race.

    TROY 20 Fiu 13 - Troy has won all 4 meetings by an avg of 25-13 but is 1-2 ATS and only won by 5

    (-9’) the last time here in ‘05. LY on the road Troy RB Cattouse rushed for a career high 205 yds but FIU

    drove 71 yards for a TD with :29 left for the backdoor cover (+18’) 34-16. Prior to LW’s bye, Troy beat LY’s

    SBC Champ, FAU, only outgaining them 360-358. They’re at home for the 1st time in over a month. QB

    Hampton left in 3Q w/knee inj vs FAU and is out. Bkup Jones has thrown 15 passes all yr. WR Jernigan

    has 24 rec (10.5). FIU is on their 3rd road gm in 4 weeks (5-1 ATS TY). They are off their third str win (SU

    & ATS) beating Mid Tenn 31-21 and outgaining them 335-243 (223-72 pass). FIU is at the .500 mark for

    1st time S/’02. FIU QB McCall is avg 122 ypg (48%) with a 6-6 ratio in the new spread offense. Visiting

    SBC tms are 5-5 SU but 8-2 ATS so far TY.

    Tuesday, October 21st

    Ohio at TEMPLE - In their 1st ever meeting LY OU outgained Temple 404-209 & outrushed them 219-48

    winning 23-7 (-9) at home. Ohio is on their 6th road game in 8 weeks! OU is 0-5 SU in a 3rd straight AG losing

    by an avg of 31-14 since 1991. Despite each having just 2 SU wins they have combined to cover 9 of their

    13 games. Both are off misleading games as Temple outgained C Mich but lost, while Ohio was outgained

    by Kent St but won. Call 1-800-654-3448 after 3 PM EST for our Tuesday Night Marquee Play.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 14 2008 10:53pm
11. 0 likes

    Powersweep (Northcoast/Phil Steele)

    Pro

    4*- Tenn

    3*- Indy

    2*- Oak

    2*- TB

    Totals

    The 3*Totals are 13-5 72%

    3* Pitt/Cincy Under

    3* Boys/rams Over

    2* 49/NYG Over

    2* Balt/Mia Under

    2* NWO/Car Under

    System: undefeated Fav off of a bye. '02-'08- 15-1.

    Tenn

    Angles

    (4)Tenn

    (3) INDIANAPOLIS

    (3) BUFFALO

    Pro Stat

    Dallas

    KEY SELECTIONS

    4* Tennessee over KANSAS CITY - Both teams are off their bye week & KC will go back to QB Croyle who

    was KO’d in the 3Q vs NE here. LY TEN beat KC 28-17 as a 3 pt AF on a cold & windy day with the stadium

    half empty. KC was able to pressure Young for most of the game & they had a 17-13 lead late in the 3Q. TEN

    scored 13 unanswered pts & while they only had a 27 yd edge they were +3 in TO’s. Croyle threw for 217 yds

    (58%) with a 2-2 ratio. TEN is 8-3 ATS as an AF while KC is 1-6 ATS at home. KC has been outgained in 10

    straight games at home (356-307) scoring 13 or less in 5 games. In the L16 games with DT Haynesworth in

    the lineup, TEN is allowing 75 ypg rushing (3.6), have tallied 44 sacks (would be 5th LY), a 15-27 ratio & have

    allowed 13 or less in 10 games for a 14-2 SU & 12-3-1 ATS mark. While TEN does have a MNF HG vs IND

    on deck Fisher has too good of a staff with too much forward momentum vs a rusty QB with an overmatched

    OL vs an elite DL. FORECAST: Tennessee 28 KANSAS CITY 7

    3* Indianapolis over GREEN BAY - Both teams come in off big wins vs overmatched opposing QB’s. IND is

    10-2 ATS away vs the NFC. GB is 2-6 ATS hosting an AFC foe. IND finally showed up LW & got their 1st win in

    5 tries at Lucas Oil Stadium. They throttled a beaten up BAL defense without its #2 & #3 CB’s as well as their

    starting RT. Manning passed for 271 yds (68%) with a 3-0 ratio as IND had 15-8 FD & 322-111 yd edges thru

    the 1st 3Q. IND forced 3 TO’s & five 3 & outs on BAL’s 1st 8 drives. #1 RB Addai left LW with a hamstring inj &

    #3 RB Hart was KO’d with a knee inj & their status is unknown. GB held SEA to just 88 yds thru the 1st 3.5Q as

    they were forced to start #3 QB Frye as Hasselbeck (hyperextended knee) was forced to miss. GB caught SEA

    at the right time as the Seahawks’ struggles masked the slew of inj’s on defense & they still allowed 113 yds

    rushing (4.9). They were down to just 3 DT’s LW & lost DT Pickett & are really hoping LY’s 1st RD DC Harrell

    who was on the PUP for the 1st 6 Wks can contribute. Despite their defensive issues IND is a deeper team with

    a better QB vs another beat up offense & are the play. FORECAST: Indianapolis 28 GREEN BAY 13

    OTHER SELECTIONS

    2* OAKLAND (+) over NY Jets - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years with the Jets being 2-0 SU & ATS winning

    by an avg 25-7. The Jets are 4-1 ATS on the road. OAK is 2-11 ATS at home. These teams are very closely

    ranked the L4W with OAK having the #23 & #17 units vs NYJ #21 & #14 units. OAK came into LW’s game

    wanting to open up the offense under interim HC Cable & OC Knapp. They wagered that Russell in his 6th

    career start would be able to compete with Brees who is the best QB in the NFL TY. Russell had 35 pass att’s

    but only 13 comp for 159 yds with an int & 40.1 QBR. OAK was outFD 23-12 & outgained 441-226. Kiffin was

    using the run to keep Russell out of trouble but OAK has been outrushed 126 (4.1) to 85 (3.4) the L3W. The

    Jets were a bit sluggish coming out of the bye & let CIN linger in the game longer than they should have. Favre

    had a rough game with 2 int’s & a fumble that was returned for a TD. The Jets run game is a concern as they

    have only rushed for 66 ypg (3.3) in their L3 weeks & only had a 3.2 ypc vs CIN’s #28 rush defense. This is a

    good spot for OAK as they are at home vs a Jets team coming cross country & they need a win with a long

    road trip vs BAL on deck. We’ll side with the very Ugly Dog here (21-9 70%) which has earned 5 straight

    upset wins. FORECAST: OAKLAND 20 (+) NY Jets 17

    2* TAMPA BAY over Seattle - Sunday Night. This is the 4th meeting in 5 years & SEA is 3-0 SU & ATS vs

    TB. LY SEA beat TB 20-6 as a 6 pt HF & it was 10-6 entering the 4Q. SEA added a 46 yd FG followed up by

    a 7 play 70 yd drive for a TD to cement the win. SEA had a 343-284 yd edge & sacked Garcia 5 times. SEA

    is 4-14 ATS in EST games & 7-14 ATS as an AD. TB is 25-12 ATS as a non-div HF. LW TB went to Garcia due

    to injury & he stayed within the gameplan as TB jumped out to a 17-3 lead in the 1H. He only had 5 pass att’s

    in the 2H as TB rushed 26 times (3. & kept the defense fresh & aggressive. Two weeks ago TB beat GB

    30-21 as they wore down their defense in the heat & humidity & had a 327-181 yd edge. They now get a SEA

    team that just lost to GB and is beaten up by inj’s at CB, WR even if Hasselbeck returns he will have lost the

    chemistry he had with the WR’s when he was gone. This is a great situation for a TB team that will seize the

    chance to get even here & stay atop the surprising NFC South. FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 28 Seattle 13

    OTHER GAMES

    BUFFALO 24 San Diego 20 - This is the 3rd time in 4 years these teams square off & the home team has

    covered both. SD is 2-6 ATS in EST game & goes straight to London after playing on SNF LW. BUF has 3 div

    games on deck. BUF is 12-6 ATS at home & have covered 3 straight after a bye. QB Edwards is expected to

    return from a concussion but BUF focused on the run game over the bye in practice. While BUF is a surprising

    4-1 TY they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record & are 2-7 ATS the L2Y vs playoff caliber teams. They

    have taken care of business TY vs the 2 West Coast teams at home with a 358-250 yd edge & 29-17 avg score.

    SD has only won the yardage battle in 1 game TY (vs NYJ) being outgained 397-317 & the team hasn’t shown

    the Schottenheimer toughness that it used to have. WR Chambers (ankle) was slated to miss LW’s game it’s

    clear that the defense is sorely missing Merriman as they are 32nd in pass defense allowing 280 ypg (67%)

    with a 10-5 ratio (92.3 opp QBR). This is a poor situation for SD travelling on a short week vs a rested BUF

    team with a rowdy home crowd, solid special teams & the home team is the play.

    Pittsburgh 24 CINCINNATI 7 - PIT swept CIN LY SU & ATS moving to 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS. PIT avg’d 22-15

    FD & 337-273 yd edges with an avg score of 24-12 LY. PIT returns from a much needed bye as Roethlisberger

    (separated shoulder) was in bad shape after facing JAX & RB Parker who has avg’d 114 ypg (4.5) vs CIN will

    return here. CIN is 2-7 ATS as a division HD while PIT is 8-3-2 ATS as a division AF. LW vs the Jets #28 pass

    def CIN opted to rest QB Palmer (throwing elbow). They went with Fitzpatrick again who passed for 152 yds

    (61%) 0-0 with a meager 4.6 ypa. CIN has yet to outgain a foe TY & minus the OT game vs the Giants have

    been outgained 308-204 on the year & outrushed 165 (4.3) to 65 (2.9). PIT has outgained foes 292-227 on the

    road TY & outrushed them 93 (3.7) to 52 (2.3). This is a very favorable matchup for PIT as they are 2nd in sacks

    by (18) vs a CIN OL that is 29th in sacks allowed (19). Roethlisberger has been sacked 19 times but still has a

    95.7 QBR. He should have a much easier time vs a CIN defense that is 31st in sacks by (5) with a misleading #5

    pass defense that is inflated by their poor run defense (#28). Expect Paul Brown Stadium to have a lot of Terrible

    Towels here giving PIT a good “awayfield” advantage making for a comfortable win by the Steelers.

    MIAMI 17 Baltimore 10 - The Dolphins beat the Ravens 22-16 in OT as a 3 pt HF for (now BAL OC) Cam

    Cameron’s only win of 2007. BAL was off 4 tough losses to CLE, SD, NE & IND & were very beaten up. With :08

    left in regulation BAL decided against going for it on 4th & 1 & hit a FG to send it to OT. BAL missed a 44 yd FG in

    OT & 3 plays later MIA scored on a 64 yd TD pass to win the game. This is the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for BAL

    & the defense was exposed LW as they were without their #2 & #3 CB’s. BAL was taken out of their gameplan

    early LW vs IND as the Colts had a 141-11 yd edge & a 17-0 lead. Flacco was left open to the IND pass rush

    who tallied 4 sacks, 4 QB hits & he threw 3 int’s. MIA’s defense was very active LW vs HOU as they forced 4 TO’s

    which they converted into 14 pts & were a QB draw with :03 left away from the win. GM Parcells is very familiar

    with Cameron’s playbook as he came on board late LY & he also has the advantage with an improved roster

    that BAL won’t be familiar with. While Flacco is showing signs of being a good QB the team has to put him in a

    position to succeed each week MIA has the edge with Pennington who isn’t intimidated by a 3-4 defense. We’ll

    side with the home team that has shown that isn’t afraid of the competition (NE & SD) by 6 here.

    Dallas 35 ST LOUIS 21 - The Cowboys drilled the Rams 35-7 LY as a 13 pt HF. STL was minus RB Jackson

    & 6 other starters. DAL was up 14-7 at the half & scored 3 TD’s in the 3Q finishing with 28-12 FD & 502-187

    yd edges as STL only gained 19 yds in the 4Q. This game pits DAL #3 & #11 units (-2 TO’s) vs STL #30 & #31

    units (-1 TO’s). DAL is 1-8 ATS as an AF of 9 or more. STL is 3-12 ATS at home & 1-10-1 ATS as a dog of 7.5+.

    STL responded positively to the HC change LW & took advantage of a WAS team that had 3 fumbles (1 on

    STL 39 & 1 on STL 34) with 1 being returned 75 yds for a TD. STL was manhandled statistically being outFD

    22-8 & outgained 368-200 HD’s that won SU as DD AD’s LW are 2-13 SU & ATS since 1991. DAL was clearly

    distracted by LW’s Pacman incident & were slowed by 3 former ass’t coaches being on the ARZ sidelines. ARZ

    kept Owens in check (4 rec 9.0) & forced Romo to use his check downs keeping the ball in front of them. While

    Barber led the team with 28 touches (6.2) they went away from Felix Jones again which cost them in the speed

    area (22 yds 7.3). One of the problems of being “America’s Team” especially this year is that when they stumble

    like they have the L3W the fan base gets hostile & look for the Cowboys to refocus here.

    Minnesota 23 CHICAGO 20 - The Vikings swept the Bears SU LY but are only 3-6 ATS vs CHI. MIN beat the

    Bears 34-31 in the 1st meeting as a 4’ pt AD & won 20-13 LY on MNF in the 2nd meeting but failed to cover as

    10.5 pt HF’s. MIN is 8-4-1 ATS as a division AD. CHI is 1-5 ATS as a div favorite. MIN is off a last sec win vs a poor

    DET team while CHI is off a last sec loss setup by an unlucky series of events. CHI took the lead with :17 left &

    did a short KO to keep the ball out of Norwoods hands but ATL returned it to their 44. ATL then threw a 26 yd pass

    to set up a 48 yd FG with :01 left. CHI had 21-12 FD & 348-279 yd edges over the L3Q but on 5 drives inside the

    ATL 18 settled for 1 TD, 2 FG & were SOD. MIN dominated DET LW with a 18-8 FD & 392-212 yd edge but on 3

    drives inside the DET 20 RB Peterson fumbled, they missed a FG & hit the game winning FG with :09 left. CHI

    will be in a foul mood after letting a win slip away but they are very depleted in the secondary (without 3 DB’s in

    4Q) & RB Forte has only rushed for 52 ypg (2.9) after a strong start. While MIN has an avg WR unit as best they

    are good run blockers & they have a superior DL here vs an older CHI OL & the road team is the play.

    CAROLINA 20 New Orleans 17 - The road team has excelled in the series going 10-2 SU & 12-0 ATS. LY

    NO beat CAR 31-6 as a 2’ pt AF as the Panthers were forced to start David Carr as Testeverde (back spasms)

    was scratched Sat night. NO finished with 22-11 FD & 373-195 yd edges as CAR had 4 TO’s set up 10 pts for

    NO. NO is 10-2-1 ATS as a div AD. CAR is 4-9 ATS as a div HF. NO is now on the road for their next 4 games &

    head straight to London after this. Minus the WAS game NO has outgained foes 447-306 as Brees has passed

    for 355 yds (71%) with an 11-4 ratio. CAR went into TB off 2 big wins but Delhomme had an awful game with

    3 int’s with 1 being converted into a TD & 2 on the TB 34 & 38. CAR was outrushed 142 (3. to 40 (2.0) which

    is 83 yds less than their avg. CAR & NO are “play on” teams but we want to see if CAR gets C Kalil & LT Otah

    back & if NO gets WR Colston & TE Shockey back & we’ll call this at the line for now.

    NY GIANTS 34 San Francisco 20 - NYG thumped the 49ers LY 33-15 as a 9 pt HF. The Giants were up 26-7 after

    the 3Q when they had a punt blocked & SF got a safety. SF went nowhere & was int’d on their next drive to set up

    a 2 yd TD pass by Manning as the Giants went up 33-9. While the Giants had a slim yardage edge (279-267) they

    earned 6 sacks & were +3 TO’s on the day as 53 of SF’s yds & a TD came in garbage time. The Giants are off LW’s

    MNF game vs the Browns & get a very favorable matchup vs a SF team off B2B games vs NE & PHI. SF is 8-23-1

    ATS away in the EST. The Giants are 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS. NYG has the #1 & #3 units (+1 TO’s) vs SF’s #19 & #26

    units (-5 TO’s). After outgaining foes 342-292 in the 1st 3 games (2-1 SU & ATS) SF has been outgained 409-272

    losing by an avg score of 34-21. LW they scored 10 pts in the final :29 of the 1H & had a 26-17 lead at the end

    of the 3Q on 78 & 77 yd drives. The defense couldn’t hang on in the 4Q as they allowed 23 pts & were outgained

    78-(-7) not counting PHI’s 55 yd int return for a TD. West Coast teams simply don’t travel well out East but with no

    line due to MNF & having PIT on deck we’ll call for a 2 TD win by the Giants in a higher scoring game.

    HOUSTON 38 Detroit 21 - HOU is off their 1st win & DET remains winless after letting a 10-9 lead slip thru

    their fingers losing on a 26 yd FG with :09 left. DET is 5-14 ATS on the road. TO’s were the key factor for the

    Texans LW as they fell behind 14-3 early on 2 Schaub int’s, had a fmbl roll into the EZ & fmbl’d on an int that

    MIA recovered & scored a TD on. They escaped with a 1 pt win when Schaub ran a QB draw on 4th & 2 with

    :03 left. HOU had 23-14 FD & 485-370 yd edges as Schaub had 379 yds passing (52%). DET was forced to

    start Orlovsky LW as Kitna (back spasms) didn’t make the trip. Orlovsky only had 150 yds passing (57%) with

    a 1-0 ratio & was clearly nervous in his 1st start. DET stayed in the game thanks to 3 MIN TO’s as they were

    outFD 18-8 & outgained 392-212. DET hasn’t outgained a single foe TY & went 18Q’s before the defense made

    its 1st int of the season. Schaub & Johnson have far greater chemistry than what DET has in their passing

    game. HOU is an undervalued team that is finally getting in gear & after having 3 straight games decided by

    4 or less look for the Texans to come up big here in a higher scoring game.

    WASHINGTON 30 Cleveland 13 - CLE came in off their bye week only to face the Giants LW on MNF & TE

    Winslow may have sat out. WAS got caught looking past STL LW after beating DAL & PHI on the road losing

    19-17 at home. WAS had 22-8 FD & 368-200 yd edges but fmbl’d twice to kill drives inside the STL 39 & 34

    & had another returned 75 yds for a TD. Minus the NYG game WAS has outFD foes 22-16 & outgained them

    383-272. CLE has been outgained in 3 of 4 games prior to MNF & have yet to gain 265 yds of offense on the

    year. While Anderson has been abysmal TY (136 ypg 50% 3-6) it hasn’t been entirely his fault. CLE has had a

    different starting OL in each game (inc MNF), been w/o WR Stallworth to take pressure off Edwards who has

    dropped 6+ passes & RB Lewis has only avg’d 59 ypg rushing (3.4) TY. This is a bad spot for CLE off a MNF

    game where they will go all out to redeem themselves on national TV. They now have to travel vs a WAS team

    that was embarrassed by one of the worst teams in the NFL & will not overlook another bad team.

    Denver at NEW ENGLAND - This is a tough spot for NE as they are off a pair of West Coast games & faced

    SD LW on SNF. DEN is well rested coming in off a pair of HG’s & are 15-4 ATS before their bye. Incl playoffs,

    Shanahan is 5-2 SU & ATS vs Belichick’s Patriots who are 8-4 ATS on MNF. NE is playing to its strengths so

    far & keeping teams away from an aging defense. DEN has a high octane offense but LW JAX QB Garrard

    carved up the D. Execution will be key with 2 teams headed up by elite coaches here. Call 1-800-654-3448 for

    tonight’s Monday Night Magic Winner on the PAY AFTER YOU WIN BASIS for $30 after 3:00 pt ET.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 14 2008 10:54pm
12. 0 likes

    WINNING POINTS - NCAA

    BEST BETS 18-8 70% so far

    ****BEST BET

    OKLAHOMA* over KANSAS by 35

    Many times when an elite team suffers their first loss they respond poorly the next

    week – when championship hopes disappear, it is not easy to find a new focus. We

    do not believe that will be the case with Bob Stoops and the Sooners at all. Instead

    we see this as a chance to vent some major frustrations, and with Stoops 10-2 ATS

    in his last dozen games when laying double figures at home, he has shown that he

    is not one to hold back. What this does is give us a chance to exploit a Kansas team

    that has made its way up the national ladder as much because of a weak schedule

    the past two seasons than any major talent upgrades. Yes, they have improved. But

    no, they are not in this class. They did not face either Texas or Oklahoma during

    the regular-season last year, before being easily handled by Missouri in the Big 12

    title game, and the non-conference sked was among the weakest in the nation.

    When they had to step up in class on the road at South Florida a month ago they

    allowed 37 points and 458 yards, looking a step slow on defense all night, and that

    is a bad problem to have against the precision of Sam Bradford and that no-huddle

    Sooner attack. Meanwhile the Jayhawks also lack a ground game (only 124

    yards per game vs. that weak slate), and that means no ability to keep the

    Oklahoma pass rush honest, and off of Todd Reesing’s back. Jayhawks have not

    faced much adversity at all of late, and that means a Dorothy-like expression of

    “we’re not in Kansas anymore” may be heard. OKLAHOMA 45-10.

    ***BEST BET

    GEORGIA TECH over CLEMSON* by 18

    We started this football season by calling for Alabama to beat Clemson outright,

    stating that the Tigers were not supposed to be favored in that matchup. Now they

    have already lost three times outright as favorites this season, but the very fact that

    they were favored in each of those games shows that the oddsmakers are so far off

    that they can not catch up any time soon to the true level of Tommy Bowden’s

    team. And it will be a race to ever get even with that level, because things may go

    from bad to worse. After that confidence-shattering loss to Wake Forest, which

    basically eliminated them from the A.C.C. race already, these are difficult psychological

    times, and Bowden’s switch from veteran QB Cullen Harper to the inexperienced

    Willy Korn is not going to help matters. It is that weak OL that is the real

    problem, not Harper, and without the threat of a passing game it becomes even

    easier for opponents to stack the line of scrimmage and expose that blocking corps.

    Now they run into a physical Georgia Tech team that absolutely buried them at the

    line of scrimmage in last year’s 13-3 home win (rushing was 189-34), and now

    under Paul Johnson the Yellow Jackets are even tougher in those areas. By facing

    mobile QB’s in practice every day they are more than prepared to contain Korn,

    which means little ball control for the Tigers, and with both Yellow Jacket QB’s

    returning after sitting out last week (the Gardner-Webb result means little), they

    take advantage of the field position given to them. GEORGIA TECH 31-13.

    **PREFERRED

    Northwestern* over Purdue by 14

    Yes, the major dreams are gone for the Wildcats after their first loss last week, but

    it is not as though that is what they were really expecting this season. Instead that

    defeat helps us by getting this line down, especially since the 37-20 margin for

    Michigan State did not show just how well Pat Fitzgerld’s team played in many

    aspects of that game (3-0 in turnovers were too much to overcome). Now motivation

    is not a problem at all, as they remember another one-sided turnover game,

    the 4-0 disadvantage they had at West Lafayette last year, which eventually turned

    a 17-14 lead into the fourth quarter into a misleading 35-17 final for Purdue. Now

    it is time to bring the proper focus to make amends for that, while the

    Boilermakers may be falling into an ugly level of complacency in Joe Tiller’s final

    season. When your season is going nowhere, it is easy to slack off behind a coach

    that is also not likely to be burning the midnight oil all that much anymore, a distinct

    contrast to the young Wildcat staff. NORTHWESTERN 33-19.

    Mississippi State over Tennessee* by 3

    We were not able to cash a ticket with Georgia near the top of these pages last

    week, and it could almost be classified as a crime – the Bulldogs bulldozed

    Tennessee to the tune of 29-10 first downs and a stunning 148-1 in rushing yards,

    but the scoreboard in the end told a fable. That works well in terms of setting up

    value for this one, however, as there is not a realization at all of just how little the

    Vols bring to the table, particularly in the skill positions on offense. They have

    managed only 32 points in their first three S.E.C. games combined, and it is hard

    to find any reasons for optimism. That is not the case with the Bulldogs, who

    cashed nicely for us at the top of this page last week, holding Vanderbilt to just

    seven first downs and 107 yards. Now the bruising Anthony Dixon is over his

    groin injury, while Tyson Lee will only get better each week at QB (they did not

    have a single turnover vs. L.S.U. or Vanderbilt with him at the helm), giving them

    the tools needed to gut out a road win. MISSISSIPPI STATE 20-17.

    Alabama* over Mississippi by 4

    Alabama will likely take over the #1 spot in the polls this week, so in the ultra-competitive

    world of the S.E.C. that makes this a natural. It forces the oddsmakers to

    take the Crimson Tide to a higher level and the very same time that it is putting a

    bull’s eye on their backs, letting a quality opponent know that they can really make

    a name for themselves by pulling the upset. And the Rebels are such a quality

    opponent. Not only have they already won outright at Florida, but note that only

    a couple of difficult bounces kept them from beating Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

    in games in which they were a combined -4 in turnovers. They bring the balance

    and playmakers on offense to give this defense a serious challenge, plus the kind of

    personnel that can run the plays in the nooks and crannies of Houston Nutt’s portfolio,

    and now that their own DL is healthy again they also have the depth up front

    to not get worn down over the course of the game. No surprise if this goes to the

    final possession. ALABAMA 24-20.

    Stanford over U.C.L.A.* by 9

    We really like what Jim Harbaugh is doing on The Farm this fall; whereas so many

    young coaches force their playbooks into action on players that have been recruited

    to play another style, Harbaugh is instead tweaking his designs to get the most

    out of what he has on hand. That means running the football with that one-two

    punch of Toby Gerhart and Anthony Kimble, and that is actually not a bad way to

    go at all in a Pac 10 that has some soft defensive fronts. And at 3-1 SU and ATS

    in conference play the positive results lend reinforcements to the players that can

    lead to even more success. What makes this fit is that there are some elements of

    the Cardinal season that bring us extreme value, like the fact that they are 4-3 vs.

    a tough schedule despite being -9 in turnovers. That is not an easy trick, and beating

    Arizona outright despite a -3 differential is the sort of accomplishment that

    flies under most radar screens. They continue their momentum against an undisciplined

    Bruin squad that is still trying to find its direction. STANFORD 26-17.

    *CLOSE CALLS

    Florida State over N. C. State* by 12 (Thursday)

    The last time we saw the Seminoles on the field, they were showing a developing

    ground game via the running ability of QB Christian Ponder. The Wolfpack have

    allowed four straight opponents to reach 5.0 per rush. FLORIDA STATE 26-14.

    T.C.U.* over Brigham Young by 2 (Thursday)

    This call gets bigger if Andy Dalton is able to run the show at QB for the Horned

    Frogs, but we believe the speed of their defense can cause some real problems for

    Max Hall. T.C.U. 24-22.

    Boise State* over Hawaii by 29 (Friday)

    Having a shorter practice week than usual following a long trip does not help the

    Warrior cause, nor does the mood of the favored Broncos, who will remember well

    that 39-27 road loss last year, when they were beaten by 242 total yards. BOISE

    STATE 45-16.

    Rutgers* over Connecticut by 1

    The return of Kordell Young enables the Scarlet Knights to get some balance back

    into an offense that badly needs it. But how do they fix a defense that does not

    have a takeaway in five lined games? RUTGERS 24-23.

    Wake Forest over Maryland* by 3

    Four of five Maryland lined games have finished more than two full touchdowns

    off of the pointspread, a pair in each direction. That lack of consistency was not

    supposed to be a trait of a Ralph Friedgen team, and it keeps us from making

    stronger speculations. WAKE FOREST 24-21.

    East Carolina* over Memphis by 7

    Who could have thought a month ago that a team that beat Virginia Tech and

    West Virginia would already be fighting merely to get above .500? But two straight

    Pirate opponents have both rushed and passed for over 200 yards, and the Tigers

    bring weapons. EAST CAROLINA 34-27.

    Miami F. over Duke* by 2

    A bye week for a new coaching staff means a chance to add wrinkles now that they

    know their players better, and David Cutcliffe and his staff are facing an opponent

    that has some holes that they can exploit. MIAMI F. 24-22.

    Virginia Tech over Boston College* by 1

    We have not seen anything from either QB that would lead to any real sense of

    trust against a class defense. Let’s give the Hokie special teams the call to make the

    game-winning play. VIRGINIA TECH 20-19.

    South Florida* over Syracuse by 30

    Syracuse was able to look respectable against a flat West Virginia team playing

    without Pat White, but these Bulls have been off for 16 days since a home loss, and

    will be of a mind to vent some frustrations. SOUTH FLORIDA 44-14.

    Iowa* over Wisconsin by 6

    We thought that these Hawkeyes were an under-rated item via some tough

    bounces when we put them at the top of these pages vs. Indiana last week. But that

    blowout win means the value disappears before we can play again. IOWA 23-17.

    Bowling Green* over Miami O. by 8

    The RedHawks have not scored a touchdown with senior QB Daniel Radabaugh

    behind center in October, so could this be the week that we see more of Clay

    Belton? BOWLING GREEN 27-19.

    Central Michigan* over Western Michigan by 7

    The first reports were that the injury to Dan LaFevour that kept him out of most

    of the Temple game was not major, so our call has him projected “in”. Broncos

    showed a lot of late moxie at Buffalo, but does that leave them drained in their

    eighth game without a bye? CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31-24.

    Iowa State* over Nebraska by 1

    Before thinking that hanging tough at Lubbock meant that the Nebraska defense

    has turned the corner in any way, note that the Cornhuskers allowed 37 points and

    421 yards despite the fact that they were only on the field for 48 snaps. IOWA

    STATE 28-27.

    Georgia* over Vanderbilt by 15

    Commodores are 8-1 ATS as double-digit road underdogs, a tribute to how well

    Bobby Johnson gets them prepared for these settings. But without any semblance

    of a passing game, maintaining that run is going to be most difficult this season.

    GEORGIA 27-12.

    Akron over Eastern Michigan* by 4

    Having lost their first two home M.A.C. games to Toledo and Northern Illinois by

    a combined 61 points, and not getting much fan support, is there any advantage

    for the Eagles to be coming out of their own locker room? AKRON 28-24.

    Utah* over Colorado State by 21

    The Rams have only left the state of Colorado once all season, for that dismal 42-

    7 loss at California. Utes are off next week, and with subtle BCS hopes building

    have no reason to let up. UTAH 34-13.

    Texas Tech over Texas A&M* by 22

    In their first look against the Mike Leach playbook we have to expect Mike

    Sherman and his assistants to have some real headaches putting a game plan

    together, especially with a slow defense that can not fit much of the puzzle. TEXAS

    TECH 42-20.

    Rice* over Southern Miss by 3

    Owls have only had one home game since August, that 77-point explosion vs.

    North Texas (when they charitably did not score in the fourth quarter), and with

    two weeks to prepare there is a rare sense of normalcy for this one. RICE 37-34.

    Southern Cal over Washington State* by 46

    With RB injuries now adding to their QB woes, it is awfully hard for the Cougars

    to even bring much spirit to practice these days. SOUTHERN CAL 49-3.

    Pittsburgh over Navy* by 1

    It has been a long time since the Panthers last took the field, that upset at South

    Florida, but while that can tactically help vs. the complex Navy option game, can

    it also mean a problem for the defense in terms of getting their timing back?

    PITTSBURGH 27-26.

    Ohio State over Michigan State* by 7

    Instead of getting better with Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells in the backfield

    together, the Buckeye offense did not score a single TD vs. a soft Purdue defense

    last week. OHIO STATE 24-17.

    Texas* over Missouri by 1

    It takes a lot of speed and the right tactics on defense to slow these Tigers down,

    but that is exactly what Texas showed in the second half vs. Oklahoma. Of course,

    maintaining that level of intensity becomes its own challenge for the Longhorns

    this week, and Chase Daniel could be a “play-on” after throwing those three interceptions

    on Saturday night. TEXAS 31-30.

    North Carolina over Virginia* by 3

    The recent improvements by the Cavaliers have coincided with the return to full

    health of Cedric Peerman, which adds the kind of run balance that can take pressure

    off of young QB Marc Verica. Tar Heels are winning without a lot of offense,

    and you know what that means on the road. NORTH CAROLINA 23-20.

    Northern Illinois* over Toledo by 11

    Could we make a case that Toledo actually has a letdown in a conference game off

    of a non-league win? If ever there was a fit for that notion this is it. And the

    Huskies will be anything but flat, after they spend a week looking at films of last

    year’s ugly 70-21 road drubbing, when their injury-riddled defense allowed 812

    yards. NORTHERN ILLINOIS 35-24.

    Nevada*over Utah State by 21

    The Wolfpack defensive breakdowns have been almost entirely vs. the passing

    game, an area of play that these Aggies can not exploit. NEVADA 41-20.

    Marshall over U.A.B.* by 1

    We rarely like the psyche of a bad team like these Blazers when they are coming off

    of the kind of giveaway they had vs. Houston, but at least Joe Webb can make

    some plays, while the Thundering Herd have only one touchdown in their last two

    games. MARSHALL 27-26.

    Penn State* over Michigan by 25

    Nittany Lions have waited a long time to take out frustrations in this series, yet we

    might actually see them backing off late, with a trip to Columbus next week that

    now becomes a significant part of a BCS resume. PENN STATE 35-10.

    New Mexico* over San Diego State by 15

    Inept QB play is a prime feature of both of these squads right now, but at least the

    Lobos have a ground game, and some depth on defense. NEW MEXICO 28-13.

    Oregon State over Washington* by 15

    The Huskies can use their bye week to tweak the offense more around the skills of

    Ronnie Fouch at QB, which is a plus. But are there any adjustments that they can

    make than can rehabilitate that awful defense? OREGON STATE 38-23.

    Kentucky* over Arkansas by 5

    We believe that the Razorbacks may be the better team, with Bobby Petrino finding

    some designs for some good young skill players. But off of that Auburn upset,

    which capped the toughest four-game schedule cycle any team has played in recent

    years, is there anything left in the tank for this trip? KENTUCKY 28-23.

    California over Arizona* by 2

    Bears have opened by getting five touchdowns from the defense and the special

    teams in their first five games, and the defense has 10 interceptions. The ability to

    make plays keeps you in the hunt on the road. CALIFORNIA 30-28.

    Louisiana Tech* over Idaho by 21

    The first home game after long trips to Boise State and Hawaii can mean some

    lethargic legs for the Bulldogs, especially since there will be nothing in the Idaho

    films to excite them in any way. LOUISIANA TECH 38-17.

    Colorado* over Kansas State by 8

    Buffaloes get an edge in coaching and polish, but that depleted OL is making it

    awfully difficult to get a running game going. But perhaps here, since the Wildcats

    have been particularly weak up front themselves. COLORADO 31-23.

    Oklahoma State* over Baylor by 16

    It will not be easy for the Cowboys to duplicate the fire that they had at Missouri

    on Saturday. And has anyone noticed that the Bears have yet to turn the ball over

    since Robert Griffin became the starting QB? OKLAHOMA STATE 39-23.

    Buffalo* over Army by 11

    Having to deal with that methodical Army option attack is a difficult chore for a

    team in the middle of conference play, particularly with the Bulls in a fragile emotional

    state after a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter vs. Western Michigan turned

    into a bitter overtime defeat. BUFFALO 28-17.

    L.S.U. over South Carolina* by 6

    Steve Spurrier may be back to the drawing board in terms of who his starting QB

    is going to be, and a snarling L.S.U. defense looking for some redemption can

    exacerbate the lack of Gamecock leadership at that position. L.S.U. 26-20.

    Tulsa* over U.T.E.P. by 22

    Golden Hurricanes have been just that at home this season, covering their two

    lined games by 50 points, with offensive averages of 59.5 points and 591.5 yards.

    Not sure that the Miner defense can do much about that. TULSA 49-27.

    San Jose State over New Mexico State* by 4

    Although the Spartan offense lacks explosiveness, note that Dick Tomey is 3-0 SU

    and ATS vs. Hal Mumme, covering the spread by an average of 14 points per game.

    SAN JOSE STATE 31-27.

    Houston over S.M.U.* by 18

    It is worth noting that Houston has already played once on this field already, that

    loss to Air Force, and not only gets some extra prep time, but also does not play

    again for an additional 10 days. HOUSTON 42-24.

    Illinois* over Indiana by 13

    Although many will back off of the Illini off of the scoreboard vs. Minnesota, now

    that we are seeing Juice Williams develop a passing rhythm (772 yards the past two

    weeks), Ron Zook can add some dimensions to the playbook. ILLINOIS 37-24.

    Air Force over U.N.L.V.* by 4

    The Rebels have been abysmal vs. the run in recent weeks, but getting a week off

    brings fresher bodies on defense, and also a better chance to deal with the Falcon

    schemes. But perhaps if you can not stop the run you simply can not stop the run.

    AIR FORCE 28-24.

    Florida Atlantic over Western Kentucky* by 1

    Can not be confident at all of the Owl focus here, after those opening Sun Belt

    encounters vs. Middle Tennessee and Troy ended in such disappointing fashion,

    particularly their -5 in turnovers, which was unexpected with the veteran Rusty

    Smith at QB. FLORIDA ATLANTIC 20-19.

    Louisville* over Middle Tennessee by 12

    Cardinals stole one at Memphis, with two special teams touchdowns and one more

    from the defense, and may not bring their “A” game here with a major home Big

    East showdown vs. South Florida immediately on deck. LOUISVILLE 31-19.

    UL-Monroe* over North Texas by 25

    Charlie Weatherbie now gets to “Step Right Up” and play “Name the Score”. ULMONROE

    52-27.

    UL-Lafayette* over Arkansas State by 8

    That relentless Cajun ground game is going to be a load for anyone to deal with

    on this field this season, and having only played one home game so far, there could

    be a special level of energy here. LOUISIANA 35-27.

    Troy* over Florida International by 15

    Now that the Panthers are showing real signs of life at 2-0 in Sun Belt play, it also

    means that opponents will no longer take them lightly. The give-and-take of college

    football. TROY 31-16.

    Temple* over Ohio U. by 2 (Tuesday)

    A rare chance for Al Golden and his Owls to appear in front of the national cameras,

    and viewers are going to enjoy seeing a quick defense that plays with abandon.

    But the offense is another matter entirely, unless Adam DiMichele can return

    for this one. TEMPLE 19-17.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 15 2008 7:34pm
13. 0 likes

    WINNING POINTS - NFL

    ****BEST BET

    Indianapolis over *Green Bay by 17

    Tthe Colts finally got their offense in gear putting up 31 points on a

    Baltimore squad that entered last week’s matchup ranking first in total

    defense, first in pass defense and No. 2 in rush defense. Green Bay’s decimated

    defense isn’t nearly as good as Baltimore’s.The Packers have cluster

    injury problems in their defensive line and secondary. Peyton Manning is

    back in sync with Marvin Harrison. That’s bad news for the rest of the

    teams. Manning also has a healthy Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark to go

    with Harrison and Reggie Wayne.These are plenty of weapons in which to

    light up Green Bay’s secondary. It’s one thing for the Packers to look good

    against an overmatched Charlie Frye. But beating Peyton Manning is something

    entirely different.The Packers’ banged-up defense isn’t up to the challenge

    even on grass at home where they’ve won 10 of their last 13.

    Inexperienced backups are ripe for Manning to pick apart and their run

    defense has been greatly weakened with the loss of lineman Cullen Jenkins

    for the season.The Packers also were thin and extremely inexperienced in

    the defensive backfield going into the season and now they’re without cornerback

    Al Harris and maybe safety Atari Bigby (check status). Green Bay’s

    offensive line hasn’t been playing up to last year’s standard either. The

    Packers are giving up nearly 50 more yards per game than last season. Ryan

    Grant has yet to produce a 100-yard rushing game or score a touchdown.

    Aaron Rodgers has become almost the entire focal point of Green Bay’s

    offense and he’s playing with a damaged right shoulder.The Colts have the

    pass rushers to take advantage of Rodgers being less than 100 percent with

    Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. INDIANAPOLIS 33-16.

    ***BEST BET

    Tennessee over *Kansas City by 22

    They are young, rebuilding and very bad. In fact, this could be the worst

    Chiefs’ team in franchise history. Carolina held them to 127 yards of offense

    in a 34-0 loss. It was the Chiefs’ lowest yardage total in 22 years.The scary

    thing was the Chiefs picked up 50 of those yards during a meaningless

    fourth quarter.When Larry Johnson is shut down, the Chiefs have no way

    of moving the ball.Tennessee is holding foes to an NFL-low 11.2 points per

    game.The Titans haven’t allowed more than 19 points to any team in regulation

    during their past 10 games, while averaging 23 points per game

    themselves. Brodie Croyle is expected to start at quarterback for Kansas

    City after being out with a shoulder injury. Croyle can’t make plays or

    throw downfield, which is what is needed to beat the Titans. The Chiefs’

    offensive line, which may be without promising rookie Branden Albert,

    won’t be able to handle Albert Haynesworth,Kyle Vanden Bosch and Jevon

    Kearse.The Titans should be at full strength following a bye.The Chiefs also

    were idle last week, but with extra time to prepare the Titans rate a strong

    coaching edge with Jeff Fisher versus Herm Edwards.The Chiefs have been

    such a disappointment and the fans are justifiably so down on Edwards that

    Arrowhead Stadium doesn’t hold a strong home-field edge anymore for

    Kansas City. The Chiefs are 2-7-1 ATS during their past 10 home games.

    Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games. Titans quarterback Kerry

    Collins has been sacked just once despite not being mobile. He has been a

    steady force. He’s in line for a big game facing a Chiefs secondary that was

    torched by 35-year-old Muhsin Muhammad. Rookie running back Chris

    Johnson continues to impress for the Titans.TENNESSEE 29-7.

    **PREFERRED

    *CLOSE CALLS

    Dallas over *St. Louis by 21

    Since playing so well on the road against Green Bay, Dallas hasn’t played up

    to par. The Cowboys are 0-3 ATS during this span, losing outright to

    Washington at home and last week to Arizona.What are the odds of Dallas

    being flat a fourth straight week? Don’t expect it to happen.The Cowboys

    own too much talent for St. Louis.The Rams are in a rare letdown spot after

    upsetting the Redskins as nearly a two-touchdown ‘dog last week. Now

    we’re going the other way and fading St. Louis. It’s going to be difficult for

    the Rams to duplicate their effort and emotion of last week. Marc Bulger

    and Torry Holt are aging warriors whose best football is behind them and

    Orlando Pace, their best offensive lineman, may not play because of a

    pulled quadriceps. Dallas can key on Steven Jackson leaving the Rams with

    little firepower. Jackson,by the way, has only rushed for more than 79 yards

    once this season and has just one touchdown. St. Louis has failed to score

    more than 14 points in six of their last nine games. Defensively the Rams

    lack the personnel to check Tony Romo,Terrell Owens, Marion Barber and

    Jason Witten. The Rams are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21. They have been

    outscored by 102 points in five games. DALLAS 34-13.

    New York Jets over *Oakland by 12

    Distinctive and dysfunctional.That’s been the motto of the Oakland Raiders

    during the past six seasons.The Raiders have won just 23 percent (20-65)

    of their games since 2003.The undistinguished Tom Cable is Oakland’s fifth

    head coach during this span. Owner Al Davis has run his once proud franchise

    into the ground with his bizarre moves and press conferences.The

    Raiders primarily are a running team with Justin Fargas and Darren

    McFadden. The Jets, though, have a premier run-stuffer in tackle Kris

    Jenkins.Already the Raiders have an eye toward next year, which means on

    the job training for inexperienced second-year quarterback JaMarcus

    Russell. He has a lot to learn and not much receiving talent or offensive line

    protection to help him. The Jets have a ball-hawking secondary. They are

    well-coached defensively, strong at confusing young quarterbacks such as

    Russell. Russell could learn a lot from his counterpart, Brett Favre. Entering

    Week 6, Favre had the highest passer rating. He’s already thrown 13 touchdown

    passes. The Raiders are without defensive end Derrick Burgess,

    which kills their pass rush and greatly limits their athletic ability. Favre had

    the savvy and the weapons to take advantage. NY JETS 28-16.

    *Buffalo over San Diego by 3

    The Chargers possess more weapons than Buffalo, but they’ve been flat too

    many times to earn our trust against a rested and well-coached Bills squad

    off a bye.The Bills are hoping Trent Edwards (check status) is a go after suffering

    a concussion two weeks ago.Backup quarterback J.P. Losman throws

    a better long ball, but is erratic.The Chargers are traveling cross-country off

    a huge revenge Sunday night home game versus New England.This will be

    their first game on artificial turf.West Coast teams traveling to the Central

    or Eastern Time Zone are 1-8 ATS on early Sunday games. BUFFALO 23-20.

    Pittsburgh over *Cincinnati by 7

    Cincinnati’s defense has played better than its statistics indicate. However,

    the Bengals have no ground game and also lack a downfield passing attack,

    too, if Carson Palmer (check status) is out for a second straight week.The

    Steelers have yet to allow 300 yards of offense.They haven’t surrendered a

    200-yard passing game either. Pittsburgh has won and covered seven of its

    past nine versus Cincinnati and was off last week.The Steelers limped into

    their bye extremely banged-up, but expect to get back defensive linemen

    Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel along with featured back Willie Parker and

    offensive lineman Marvel Smith. PITTSBURGH 24-17.

    Baltimore over *Miami by 1

    Until meeting up with the Colts last week, Baltimore had held its first four

    foes to under 240 yards.The Ravens haven’t allowed someone to rush for

    100 yards against them in a league-high 24 straight games.That’s bad news

    for a Miami squad that relies on Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to set up

    a weak passing attack. Baltimore isn’t going to lack for motivation either.

    Miami’s only win last year came against the Ravens.The problem with backing

    Baltimore, especially on the road, is suffering too much with rookie

    quarterback Joe Flacco, who has thrown one TD pass and been picked off

    seven times. BALTIMORE 13-12.

    *Chicago over Minnesota by 7

    Vikings fans were shouting “Fire Childress” last week when their team had

    to get a lucky pass interference call to defeat the Lions. Minnesota has failed

    to cover seven of its past nine. So far Adrian Peterson isn’t having the big

    year he had last season.That could change here, although the Vikings’ offensive

    line has been disappointing. Minnesota has to be careful with return

    star Devin Hester after allowing Reggie Bush to bring back two punts for

    touchdowns two weeks ago. Kyle Orton has thrown for 1,027 yards and

    eight touchdowns in his last four games.The Bears have won and covered

    six of their last seven home games against Minnesota. CHICAGO 23-16.

    *Carolina over New Orleans by 6

    Drew Brees makes New Orleans dangerous. He’s been the hottest passer in

    the NFL despite not having Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey, both of

    whom could be back for this matchup. Still, our lean is toward the more

    fundamentally sound Panthers. Carolina has the better defense and rushing

    attack.The Panthers are 3-0 at home holding the Bears, Falcons and Chiefs

    to a combined 26 points.The Saints’ offense, of course, is much better than

    those teams. But New Orleans has been too mistake-prone to trust. The

    Saints also are on grass for the first time in four weeks after having been

    home for three consecutive weeks. CAROLINA 30-24.

    *New York Giants over San Francisco by 13

    The Giants entered Monday night with an average victory margin of 19.5

    points. Not good news for a 49ers squad that has trouble covering in the

    secondary and protecting quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan.That can explain why

    O’Sullivan has been picked off seven times in the last three games. The

    Giants’ strong pass rush can take advantage, while their balanced offense

    should have no problem putting up points on a San Francisco defensive

    unit that has surrendered 30 or more points in three of its last four games.

    San Francisco is 2-11 SU in October under Mike Nolan. NY GIANTS 27-14.

    *Houston over Detroit by 12

    The Lions probably should have pulled the upset last week against

    Minnesota, but remain difficult to back on the road no matter how inflated

    the pointspread.The Lions have won the grand total of eight away contests

    since 2000.They are 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS in their last 13, having last won

    a game in December.They’ve allowed at least 30 points in nine of these last

    13 games. The Texans are pumped following a last-second victory versus

    the Dolphins, while the Lions are off consecutive division games against

    Chicago and Minnesota.Ahman Green is healthy again giving the Texans’ a

    one-two running punch with Steve Slaton. HOUSTON 35-23.

    *Washington over Cleveland by 12

    The Redskins are now 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, but you have to wonder

    if this is a team that plays down to the level of their competition following

    a shocking upset loss at home to St. Louis this past Sunday. After

    knocking off Dallas and Philadelphia on the road, the Redskins are in the

    middle of the easy portion of their schedule, having just hosted St. Louis

    and with Detroit on deck.The Browns will be traveling on a short week.

    They went into their Monday game against the Giants averaging only 210

    yards on offense, worst in the NFL, with a passing game that had yet to

    click.WASHINGTON 26-14.

    *Tampa Bay over Seattle by 4

    The Buccaneers doesn’t have the flashy skill position players so it’s tough

    to lay a mid-sized number with them.This is Seattle’s season being 1-4.The

    Seahawks, however, have been terrible on long trips, have been out-scored

    78-16 in their last two road contests and are playing on grass for the first

    time this season.Worse, the Seahawks may be forced to go with third-string

    quarterback Charlie Frye again if starter Matt Hasselbeck (knee) and backup

    Seneca Wallace (calf) remain out.The Seahawks have been outscored by

    an average of 10 points per game.TAMPA BAY 21-17.

    *New England over Denver by 3 (Monday)

    For the first time since 2005, the Patriots are hosting a Monday night game.

    They are doing it without Tom Brady making them vulnerable to just about

    any team. Denver’s high-octane passing attack can hurt a New England

    defense that is less-than-dominating and no longer has a shutdown cornerback.

    The Patriots have become much more ground-oriented under backup

    quarterback Matt Cassel. That could work in their favor versus a smallish

    Denver defensive front seven that surrendered 198 rushing yards to Larry

    Johnson in their previous road game. Note to totals players, Denver is 20-7

    ‘over’ in its last 27 games. NEW ENGLAND 26-23.

    OVER/UNDER

    **OVER: Detroit at Houston – The Texans are averaging 27.6 points

    in their last three games, while Detroit’s wideouts can hurt Houston’s vulnerable

    secondary.

    UNDER: Baltimore at Miami – The Ravens ranked No. 1 in total

    defense going into Week 6, while Miami’s defense has been respectable

    against the run.

    OVER: New Orleans at Carolina – The Saints have multiple weapons,

    but are surrendering an average of 31.5 points on the road.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 15 2008 7:35pm
14. 0 likes

    THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA

    THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

    TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

    GEORGIA TECH

    Series and team trends present a strong argument for Georgia

    Tech when it travels to Death Valley for a Saturday battle vs. ACC

    foe Clemson. Series-wise, it’s been almost all underdogs for more

    than a decade, the “short” covering 12 of the last 13 meetings. And

    the Yellow Jackets are buzzing for new HC Paul Johnson, covering

    their first four on the board this season. That sort of pointspread

    success is nothing new for Johnson, especially as a visiting

    underdog, as his Navy & GT teams stand 14-3 vs. the line their last

    17 in that role. Johnson’s presence also qualifies the Jackets as

    featured plays in both the Coach & Pointspread and College

    Coach as Underdog systems this week, and GT is also a

    featured Power Underdog play. Note that the Tigers have

    dropped their last 7 on the board since late '07.

    VIRGINIA TECH

    One of the most enduring team trends in the nation has been

    Virginia Tech’s recent success as a visitor, and the Hokies are

    in their preferred role once more when traveling to Boston College

    for a Saturday ACC battle. Note the Hokies’ stellar 17-3 spread

    mark their last 20 as a visitor, not to mention covers in 11 of their

    last 13 as an underdog. VPI also qualifies as a featured

    recommendation with HC Frank Beamer in the Coach &

    Pointspread and College Coach as Underdog systems, as

    well as being a featured Power Underdog play this week.

    SOUTH FLORIDA

    After a week to stew about a bitter home loss vs. Pitt, expect

    South Florida to rebound with a vengeance Saturday in Tampa

    when hosting Syracuse. The Bulls have fared well after recent

    defeats, covering 4 of their last 5 in that role, but the real reason

    we like their chances this week is overwhelming recent

    domination of the Orange, winning and covering the last 3

    meetings, all by 17 points or more. And despite a mild recent

    uptick, Syracuse (only 6-15 vs. the number its last 21 on the

    board) remains nothing to fear.

    ARKANSAS

    Each season, a handful of “system plays” stick out despite

    some evidence to the contrary. And that’s how we view

    Arkansas when it travels to Kentucky for a Saturday SEC battle.

    The Razorbacks’ enthralling win at Auburn last week qualifies

    them as a Streakbuster-Win recommendation this week, and

    the Hogs are always a play this season with HC Bobby Petrino in

    the Coach & Pointspread system. Also note that the Wildcats

    have failed to cover their last 4 when hosting SEC teams.

    ARMY

    Some revealing technical numbers can often be found in the

    “AFS” (“Away from Spread”) weekly calculations. And that 2-

    week running average makes it very hard to overlook rampaging

    Army when it travels to Buffalo this Saturday. Note how the

    Black Knights have recorded an eye-opening +26.75 “AFS” their

    last two games, and are now riding a 3-game cover streak overall.

    FLORIDA STATE at NC STATE (Thursday, October 16)... Wolfpack

    has covered last 3 and 6 of last 7 meetings. Noles 1-1 as chalk TY

    but just 8-16 last 24 in role. O’Brien only 3-3 as home dog since arriving

    at NCS but is 2-1 last 3 in role. Tech edge-NCS, based on series

    and team trends.

    BYU at TCU (Thursday, October 16)...Note that road team 2-1 SU,

    3-0 vs. line last 3 in series. BYU, however, just 3-6 vs. line away from

    Provo since LY. Frogs 14-4 vs. line at home since ‘05 (12-4 as home

    chalk), if TCU a dog note Patterson’s 6-3-1 mark in role since ‘05. Tech

    edge-TCU, based on team trends.

    HAWAII at BOISE STATE (Friday, October 17)...Hawaii has covered

    the last 3 meetings. But BSU 16-6 vs. line last 22 as host, and

    36-14 as blue carpet chalk since ‘98! Leahey just 1-5 vs. line last 6

    on mainland, and UH also just 8-14 last 22 as dog. Tech edge-slight

    to Boise, based on team trends.

    UCONN at RUTGERS...UConn has covered last 4 meetings and is

    5-0-1 vs. line last 6 in series since ‘01. If Huskies a dog note 4-9 mark

    in role on road since ‘05, however. Tech edge-slight to UConn,

    based on series trends.

    WAKE FOREST at MARYLAND...Wake has won and covered last

    2 after UM had covered previous 7 meetings. If Deacs getting points

    note 15-6 mark in role since ‘05. Wake also 14-7-1 vs. number last

    22 away from home. Tech edge-Wake, based on team trends.

    GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON...Paul Johnson 4-0 vs. line TY, and

    if getting points, note 2-0 as road dog. GT 5-1-1 as road dog since

    ‘06, and Johnson’s Navy & GT teams 14-3 vs. line their last 17 as

    visiting dog. Dog team is 12-1 vs. line last 13 in series! Tommy B.

    no covers last 7 on board since late ‘07! Tech edge-GT, especially

    if dog, based on team and series trends.

    MEMPHIS at EAST CAROLINA...ECU has cooled, no covers last

    4 TY. Tommy West 6-3 vs. line last 9 as visitor (1-2 TY), and 9-5-1

    as visiting dog since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to ECU, based on

    series trends.

    MIAMI-FLORIDA at DUKE...Duke has covered the last 2 meetings.

    Canes 3-9 vs. line as chalk for Shannon since LY (1-3 TY) and just

    8-22 as chalk since ‘05. Canes also just 6-13 vs. line away from home

    since ‘05 (3-4 under Shannon). Duke 3-0 vs. line as host for Cutcliffe.

    Tech edge-Duke, based on team and series trends.

    VIRGINIA TECH at BOSTON COLLEGE...If Beamer a dog note 11-

    2 mark in role since ‘01, also 17-3 vs. number as true visitor since ‘04

    (although one of those losses came by 22-3 score at BC in ‘06). Dog

    team is 6-0 vs. number last 6 Hokie games since late LY. Tech edge-

    VT, based on team trends.

    SYRACUSE at SOUTH FLORIDA...USF has won and covered the

    last 3 meetings by comfy margins (all by 17 or more). Bulls 4-1 vs.

    line after last 5 SU losses. Cuse 6-15 vs. number last 21 on board.

    Tech edge-USF, based on team and series trends.

    WISCONSIN at IOWA...Iowa has covered 5 of last 6 in series.

    Badgers just 1-7 vs. line away from Madison since LY, although

    Hawkeyes just 5-10 vs. line as host since ‘06. Tech edge-Iowa,

    based on series trends.

    PURDUE at NORTHWESTERN...Purdue has won and covered the

    last two years vs. NU and is 5-2-1 vs. line last 7 in series. Cats just

    1-6 as Evanston chalk since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to Purdue,

    based on team and series trends.

    KANSAS at OKLAHOMA... Jayhawks 3-0 in rare dog role since LY

    and 17-4 overall vs. number last 21 on board. But Stoops 11-3-1 vs.

    number at Norman (10-3-1 laying DDs) since ‘06, also 6-2 vs. line after

    last 8 SU losses. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on team

    trends.

    MIAMI-OHIO at BOWLING GREEN...Miami-O has won and covered

    last 2 and 6 of last 7 in series, although that dates back to the Big Ben

    days. Road team has covered in first 6 BGSU games TY (Falcons

    0-2 vs. line at home), and Brandon just 2-8 as home chalk since ‘06.

    Tech edge-slight to Miami-O, based on team trends.

    WESTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Broncos 4-1-1

    vs. spread last 6 meetings, though Chips 11-3-2 vs. number at Kelly/

    Shorts Stadium since ‘05. WMU 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 TY. Tech edgeslight

    to WMU, based on recent trends.

    NEBRASKA at IOWA STATE...Chizik 6-2 vs. line at Ames since

    arriving LY, and Cyclones now 7-2 vs. spread last 9 as host. Tech

    edge-slight to ISU, based on team trends.

    MISSISSIPPI STATE at TENNESSEE...MSU 10-4-1 vs. line away

    from home since ‘06. UT no covers last 2 at Knoxville after 6-1-1

    spread mark previous 8 at Neyland Stadium. Tech edge-slight to

    MSU, based on team trends.

    OLE MISS at ALABAMA...Last 3 games each decided by 3 points,

    all Rebel covers. Rebs have covered 4 of last 5 meetings at

    Tuscaloosa. Rebs 2-0 as dog TY, 12-7 as dog since ‘06. Ole Miss

    also 8-3 as DD dog since ‘06. Nick still only 1-2 as home chalk TY,

    and Bama now 3-16 vs. spread laying points as host since ‘05. Tech

    edge-Ole Miss, based on team trends.

    VANDERBILT at GEORGIA...Dores have played Dawgs very tough

    lately, winning at Athens in ‘06 and narrowly losing on last-second

    FG at Nashville LY. Bobby Johnson 13-5 vs. line away since ‘05!

    Vandy also 17-7 as visiting dog since ‘03. Tech edge-Vandy,

    based on team and recent series trends.

    AKRON at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Zips 1-1 as road chalk TY but

    only 1-5 in role since ‘05. EMU only 1-5 vs. line TY and 5-13 last 18

    on board, also just 3-7 last 10 as home dog. Tech edge-slight to

    Akron, based on EMU negatives.

    COLORADO STATE at UTAH...Utes 4-1 SU and 5-0 vs. line last 5

    in series. CSU no covers its first 2 away from home TY. Whittingham

    8-3 as DD chalk since ‘06 (2-2 TY). Tech edge-Utah, based on

    series and team trends.

    TEXAS TECH at TEXAS A&M..TT has dominated, winning and

    covering last 3 and 6 of last 7 in series. Leach has turned things

    around as visiting chalk lately, now 6-1 last 7 in role (2-0 TY). A&M

    no covers last 4 or 5 of 6 TY. Tech edge-Texas Tech, based on

    team and series trends.

    SOUTHERN MISS at RICE...Golden Eagles now 8-2 vs. line last 10

    away from Hattiesburg (2-0 TY). Rice, however, now 11-3 vs. line

    last 14 as host, and if dog note 9-3 last 12 as home dog. Tech edge-

    Rice, based on team trends.

    SOUTHERN CAL at WASHINGTON STATE...Pete has won last 5

    and covered last 4 vs. Wazzu. Pete only 1-4 last 5 laying 30 or more,

    however, and just 4-9 last 13 as Pac-10 road chalk. Cougs 0-6 vs.

    line for Paul Wulff TY. Tech edge-slight to SC, based on WSU

    negatives.

    PITT at NAVY...’stache 8-4 vs. line as visitor since ‘06, but Navy

    on 3-game cover streak TY and 43-25-1 last 69 on board. Tech

    edge-slight to Navy, based on team trends.

    OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Buckeyes have won last 6 SU

    and covered 4 of last 5 in series, although Spartans covered at

    Columbus LY. Buckeyes 10-2 vs. line last 12 on Big Ten road.

    Dantonio, however, 5-1-1 as dog since LY and now 18-9-1 vs.

    number overall at Cincy & MSU since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to MSU,

    based on team trends.

    MISSOURI at TEXAS...Mizzou has covered its last 5 as visitor and

    Pinkel now 15-5 vs. spread last 20 on board. Mack, however, is 6-

    0 vs. line TY and 9-1 vs. spread last 10 on board. Tech edge-slight

    to Mizzou, based on team trends.

    NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA...Cavs have held edge in last

    decade, covering 9 of last 10 meetings, and they’ve covered last 8

    vs. UNC at Charlottesville. Heels, however, have covered their first

    2 on road TY and 3 straight as visitor since late LY. Groh is 8-4 vs.

    line last 12 as host. Tech edge-slight to Virginia, based on

    series trends.

    TOLEDO at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Amstutz has covered last 2

    and 8 of last 9 in series. Huskies 0-6 as Dekalb chalk since ‘06. Tech

    edge-NIU, based on recent trends.

    UTAH STATE at NEVADA...Home team has covered last 3 meetings.

    Ault 13-3 as Mackay Stadium chalk since ‘04. Tech edge-

    Nevada, based on team and series trends.

    MARSHALL at UAB...If Herd road chalk, note Marshall 1-6 in role

    since ‘03. Herd 5-20 vs. line last 25 away from home. Dog has

    covered last 3 in series. Tech edge-slight to UAB, if dog, based

    on team and series trends.

    MICHIGAN at PENN STATE...Shades has lost 8 in a row SU vs.

    Michigan, but Rodriguez only 1-5 vs. line TY, and Wolverines 1-3-1

    vs. line as visitor since LY. Shades 14-6 last 20 laying DDs. Tech

    edge-Shades, based on recent trends.

    SAN DIEGO at NEW MEXICO...Lobos had covered 6 straight vs.

    SDSU prior to LY. UNM has still won last 7 in series SU and covered

    last 3 meetings at Albuquerque. Chuck Long now 5-9 vs. spread on

    road since taking over SDSU in ‘05. Tech edge-UNM, based on

    series and team trends.

    OREGON STATE at WASHINGTON...Beavs dominating series,

    winning and covering last 4 meetings. OSU 18-9 vs. line last 27 on

    board, 11-5 last 16 as chalk since ‘06. Beavs 4-0 vs. line last 4 as

    DD chalk. Tech edge-OSU, based on series trends.

    ARKANSAS at KENTUCKY...UK no covers last 4 as SEC host.

    Tech edge-Arkansas, based on team trends.

    CALIFORNIA at ARIZONA...If Stoops a dog note 6-1-1 spread

    mark in role at Tucson since ’05. Stoops 16-7-1 vs. line last 24 as dog.

    Home team has covered last 3 in series, and Cats have covered their

    last 5 at Tucson. Tedford just 2-8 vs. number last 10 as visitor. Tech

    edge-UA, based on team trends.

    IDAHO at LA TECH...Vandals 1-5 vs. line TY, no covers last 8 since

    late ’07, 2-13 last 15 on board! Tech edge-La Tech, based on

    Idaho woes.

    KANSAS STATE at COLORADO...KSU has won last 2 and covered

    last 3 in series. Cats also 3-0 vs. line as road dog since LY. Buffs,

    however, 6-1 vs. line last 7 as chalk. Tech edge-slight to KSU,

    based on series trends.

    BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA STATE...Home team has covered 5 of

    last 6 in series, but OSU has won and covered big the last 2 meetings.

    Bears improved under Briles but no wins or covers last 4 trips to

    Stillwater, not closer than 28 in any of those losses! Gundy has now

    covered last 8 laying DDs! Tech edge-OSU, based on series and

    team trends.

    ARMY at BUFFALO...Army on uptick, covers last 3. Tech edge-

    Army, based on recent trends.

    LSU at SOUTH CAROLINA...LSU only 3-10-2 vs. line last 15 on

    board since early ’07, and 3-6-1 vs. spread as visitor since ’06.

    Spurrier 6-2-1 vs. spread last 9 as dog. Tech edge-South

    Carolina, based on team trends.

    UTEP at TULSA...Tulsa 4-0 vs. line TY, now 5-0 last 5 on board

    since late ’07, also 4-0 laying DDs TY after 0-5 mark in role LY. Price,

    however, 9-3-1 vs. line last 13 as visiting dog. Tech edge-Tulsa,

    based on recent trends.

    SAN JOSE STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE...SJSU has won and

    covered the last 3 vs. NMSU. Spartans 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board

    since late LY, and 9-3 last 12 on board, and Dick Tomey 7-1 vs. line

    last 8 as chalk. Tech edge-SJSU, based on team and series

    trends.

    HOUSTON at SMU...Road team has covered the last 3 meetings.

    Tech edge-UH, based on series trends.

    INDIANA at ILLINOIS...Hoosiers no covers first 5 on board TY,

    now no covers last 6 since late LY. Hoosiers also no covers last 5

    away from home since late LY. Tech edge- Illinois, based on

    Indiana negatives.

    AIR FORCE at UNLV...Are Rebs in another meltdown? UNLV no

    covers last 2 TY, but note Rebs are 9-4 as Sam Boyd dog since

    Sanford arrived in ’05. Force, however, has won and covered 5 of

    last 6 meetings. Tech edge-AFA, based on team trends.

    STANFORD at UCLA...Tree has been blanked its last 2 visits to

    Rose Bowl after 10-0-1 spread mark previous 11 as series visitor.

    Bruins 3-1 vs. line at home TY and now 22-6 vs. spread last 28 at Rose

    Bowl. Tech edge-slight to UCLA, based on team trends.

    FLORIDA ATLANTIC at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Howard 6-2 as

    chalk since LY (2-0 as road chalk). Tech edge-slight to FAU,

    based on team trends.

    MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at LOUISVILLE...Blue Raiders have

    covered the last 2 vs. UL. Cards 2-6 vs. line as host under Kragthorpe,

    1-6 as home chalk. Tech edge-MTSU, based on series and team

    trends.

    NORTH TEXAS at UL-MONROE...Todd Dodge now 5-12 vs. line

    with Mean Green, and UNT also only 5-12 vs. line away since ’06.

    Tech edge-ULM, based on UNT negatives.

    ARKANSAS STATE at UL-LAFAYETTE...If dog, note ASU 8-4 as

    road short since ’06. But home side has won and covered handily

    last 2 in series, and Ragin’ Cajuns have covered last 5 TY. Tech

    edge-slight to ULL, based on recent series and team trends.

    FLA INTERNATIONAL at TROY...Troy 14-4 vs. line last 18 on board,

    and 7-2 last 9 as chalk. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.

    SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT

    COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

    COACH & POINTSPREAD-ARKANSAS over Kentucky, EAST

    CAROLINA over Memphis, GEORGIA TECH over Clemson, KANSAS

    over Oklahoma, UL-MONROE over North Texas, MICHIGAN

    over Penn State@, MISSOURI over Texas, SOUTH FLORIDA over

    Syracuse, VIRGINIA TECH over Boston College.

    COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-NC STATE over Florida

    State (10/16), ARIZONA* over Cal, GEORGIA TECH over Clemson,

    MICHIGAN STATE over Ohio State, UTEP over Tulsa, VIRGINIA

    TECH over Boston College, WAKE FOREST* over Maryland.

    RIVALRY DOGS-WESTERN MICHIGAN over Central Michigan.

    POWER UNDERDOGS-Dog in BYU-TCU game (10/16), GEORGIA

    TECH over Clemson, KANSAS over Oklahoma, MICHIGAN over

    Penn State@, MICHIGAN STATE overe Ohio State, MISSOURI over

    Texas, NAVY* over Pitt, PURDUE over Northwestern, SOUTH CAROLINA

    over Lsu, SOUTHERN MISS* over Rice,VIRGINIA TECH over Boston

    College, WAKE FOREST* over Maryland, and WISCONSIN voer Iowa.

    PAINFUL MEMORY-No plays this week.

    POWER REVENGE-PENN STATE over Michigan.

    RESTED HOME WINNERS-CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Temple,

    SAN JOSE STATE over Utah State.

    IMPOTENT FAVORITES-MARSHALL* over Uab.

    STREAKBUSTERS-off pointspread win-ARKANSAS over Kentucky,

    ULM over North texas, MIAMI-OHIO over Bowling Green,

    NEBRASKA over Iows State, PURDUE over Northwestern, TOLEDO

    over Northern Illinois, IDAHO over La Tech; off pointspread loss-

    CAL over Arizona, UTAH STATE over Nevada, VIRGINIA over North

    Carolina, KANSAS over Oklahoma, GEORGIA over Vandy, OLE

    MISS over Alabama, WAKE FOREST over Maryland, BOSTON

    COLLEGE over Virginia Tech@.

    "AFS" (Away from spread last two decisions): PLUS (+)...Virginia

    +32.25, Army 26.75, GT 18.50, Penn St 17.75, Navy 17.25, Hou

    17.00, Iowa 17.00, FIU 16.75, OreSt 15.75, Fla 14.50, Tex 14.25, Ball

    12.25, Boise 12.00, Tem 11.25, Ok St 11.00, Rice 11.00, Minn 10.75,

    EMU 10.25, UCLA 10.25, Miss St 10.00; MINUS (-)...Tulane -24.75,

    ECU 24.25, Mich 23.25, Fresno 22.75, LSU 19.00, UNLV 18.25, Wis 18.00,

    UNT 16.75, Ind 16.25, WSU 15.50, Marsh 14.25, Aub 12.50, SDSU 12.00,

    Wyo 11.25, BGSU 10.25, NCS 10.25, Clem 10.00, Wash 10.00.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 15 2008 7:36pm
15. 0 likes

    THE SPORTS REPORTER

    BEST BETS 6-1 LAST WEEK

    NFL BEST BETS 13-4 (76%) SO FAR

    BEST BET

    NEW ORLEANS over *CAROLINA by 8

    Life begins anew at .500 and the Saints finally got there by stepping on the laughingstock

    of the NFL. They’ll try to use last week’s victory as a momentum builder heading

    into this week’s road trip to Carolina, where they’ve covered the spread in four straight

    visits while winning three of four. Marques Colston’s presence in the line-up, that much

    closer to 100%, will help bring consistency to the Saints passing attack and give Drew

    Brees a reliable set of hands on the outside and over the middle. As good as Reggie Bush

    can be as a receiver out of the backfield, it is Colston’s ability to draw double coverages

    that really opens up room for the Saints passing game. Carolina’s defense has been great

    against two bad offenses (Atlanta and Kansas City) and not so great against the tougher

    teams on their schedule. The Saints’ offense will pose a tough challenge to the Panthers

    defense and the coaching match-up between Sean Payton and Jon Fox is sure to be

    compelling. While Carolina has jumped out to a hot start, their record could easily be two

    games worse and they are due to fall off in a bout of hubris, as they so often do at home.

    Carolina is 4-9 ATS at home against divisional opponents over the past five years – a big

    part of that being the 0-4 ATS mark against New Orleans. NEW ORLEANS 28-20.

    BEST BET

    DENVER over *NEW ENGLAND by 14

    The Patriots can still win games by virtue of having talent on both sides of the ball and

    one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL. However, Tom Brady’s season-ending injury

    robs them of the ability to score in bunches and come back from large deficits. That

    inability to compete in shoot-outs will hurt them against a team like Denver, who boasts

    offensive personnel that rivals New England at their best. While the Patriots secondary

    has performed well, they lack a cover corner who can defend a wide receiver on par with

    Brandon Marshall. While Denver’s running game has lacked its usual punch this season,

    their increased reliance on their passing game will serve them well in this match-up.

    Conversely, this game will be a good test of Matt Cassel’s abilities considering the overall

    weakness of Denver’s defense. The results on Matt Cassel are still yet to be determined;

    he finally completed his first deep pass to Randy Moss, which bodes well, but he

    has received incredibly little help from New England’s running game as Laurence

    Maroney has yet to develop as expected and keeps dealing with nagging injuries, this

    time a sore shoulder that has hampered his decisiveness at the line of scrimmage. Look

    for the New England mystique to take another hit this week as a young team on the rise

    – off a camouflaging home defeat to a team that has their number (see predicted Best

    Bet winner on Jacksonville at Denver) – gets it done on the road. DENVER 34-20.

    RECOMMENDED

    *KANSAS CITY over TENNESSEE by 2

    The Titans are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS and Kerry Collins is their starting quarterback.

    Tennessee’s success is due more to offensive and defensive line depth. As far as playmaking

    goes, the Tennessee offense is chugging along at 4.7 yards per play, bottom-tier

    NFL level. When the teams met late in the 2007 season on this field and the Chiefs were

    as “bad” as they appear to be now and deader in the playoff chase, offensive yardage

    was 327-306, not much difference. Vince Young quarterbacked the Titans that afternoon.

    Tennessee’s defense made second-half adjustments to bring more pressure against

    then-Kansas City QB Brodie Croyle, who tossed two costly interceptions that helped tilt

    the game Tennessee’s way. There are no surprises here, with KC defensive coordinator

    Gunther Cunningham having been Tennessee’s linebackers coach when current Titans’

    OC and DC Heimerdinger and Schwartz were the coordinators. With resurgent AFC South

    foe Indianapolis on deck for Tennessee, one might suspect that anything new cooked up

    during the bye week will be executed next week. The Chiefs are 1-4 SU but younger,

    more volatile, more desperate and more likely to have come up with something during

    their own bye week to unveil in the here and now. KANSAS CITY, 16-14.

    RECOMMENDED

    INDIANAPOLIS over *GREEN BAY by 8

    The Colt vaunted offense finally showed its pretty side last week against a supposedly

    tough Baltimore defense, despite the sudden absence of Joseph Addai. Addai’s status for

    this week is questionable after he injured his hamstring in practice and later aggravated

    it during the game. His steady ability to gain yardage will hamstring Indy’s consistency

    in moving the ball, but if Peyton Manning’s knee is feeling stable enough for him to accurately

    make the short and medium length passes that are the bread-and-butter of this

    offense, the Colts should be able to put up some points. The real question is, will their

    two 250-pound defensive tackles be able to stop Ryan Grant? While Grant’s season has

    gotten off to a slow start, he was bothered by a preseason hamstring pull that has finally

    started to heal, getting him closer to 100%. The Packers will have to lean on Grant

    knowing the vulnerability of Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder. While Rodgers has gutted his way

    through some impressive performances, the Packers risk long-term damage to their new

    franchise quarterback if they keep putting him in such a difficult position. Green Bay’s

    three wins this season? Against opposing QBs Tarvaris Jackson (benched), Jon Kitna (the

    Clown) and Choo-Choo Charlie Frye, subbing for Matt Hasselbeck. Aaron’t you glad we

    pointed that out as they prepare for Peyton? INDIANAPOLIS 31-23.

    SAN DIEGO over *BUFFALO by 5

    The Buffalo bye week, coupled with San Diego being “off the big revenge game vs. New

    England,” will be overrated here, more overrated if it means that J.P. Losman will be the Bills’

    starting quarterback. Veteran NFL head coaches like Dick Jauron do not make switches to

    second-season quarterbacks like Trent Edwards as their season-starting #1 guy unless the

    alternative is unappealing. Edwards was bonked in the head during the first quarter at

    Arizona two weeks ago and the Bills haven’t played since. That counts most of the game at

    Arizona. Even if Edwards returns to the position, he will be doing it vs. San Diego’s frequently

    freaky secondary, which has made Brett Favre and Peyton Manning look like rookies within

    its last eight games. The Chargers have big, talented, young wide receivers who do not get

    their due, the kind of match-up that helped doomed Buffalo at Arizona. San Diego has been

    good for 5.9 yards per play on offense this season, which helps stay in good down-and-distance

    situations and renders Buffalo’s preferred four-man pass rush weaker than it wants to

    be. This also could be one of the few match-ups where the opponent has the potential to

    make special teams plays to offset or eclipse Buffalo’s. SAN DIEGO, 24-19.

    PITTSBURGH over *CINCINNATI by 6

    Even with a defensive touchdown last Sunday, the 0-6 SU Bengals did not cover. That’s a bad

    sign, but at least the Steelers are injured, helping to level the playing field. Of course,

    Pittsburgh’s bye gives them more time to get guys back and ready for an important AFC North

    encounter. The Steelers have already opened up a two-game division lead, have beaten

    Baltimore and Cleveland, and putting the Bengals to bed would give Pittsburgh an opportunity

    to take several other byes during actual game days later in the season before the playoffs.

    The chicken bookmaker will probably refuse to hang a spread on this game due to

    Carson Palmer’s questionable availability at quarterback for Cincinnati. The Bengals have

    been semi-competitive vs. strangers recently but the Steelers know where and how to go for

    the jugular. If Palmer’s elbow is rested enough, Cincinnati may finally come in with a plan to

    get more deeply vertical than they have been recently. PITTSBURGH, 27-21.

    BALTIMORE over *MIAMI by 2

    Not gonna fall for the Dolphins and their 3-0 ATS streak and the Penningstone or Wildcat

    propaganda. No way, Jose. No chance, smarty pants. It’s all sitting there wrapped in a pretty

    bow as a favored commodity -- with the springy snakes inside ready to launch themselves.

    The Ravens wrapped up early at Indy last week, 0-24 at the half, setting up Flacco

    Joe & Co. for the most emotionally intense week of preparation with their offensive coordinator

    Cam Cameron, who was blown off nine months ago in a sham interview by Miami’s

    first-season Executive VP Bill Parcells. Cameron had no chance to stay on as Miami head

    coach following last season’s 1-15 debacle he walked into after Nick Saban, the chicken CEO

    who jumped ship, walked away for big money and left Miami in need of a bailout that didn’t

    come. If Cameron was a cerebral defensive coordinator instead of an offensive clown with a

    red nose and oversized shoes, or had spent more than one season in Miami for a better handle

    on the holdover personnel, this would be one of Sports Reporter’s signature box-andlabel

    deals. Parcells wasn’t about to go out of his own fraternity to hire Cameron, but said,

    “We just didn’t know the guy.” That remark has been steaming Cameron’s ears, making this

    his “F.U. opportunity” to make the statement of, “How do like me now, sweetheart?!” BALTIMORE,

    19-17.

    DALLAS over *ST. LOUIS by 10

    As alluded to last week, ‘how ’bout those dumb Cowboys?’ And the coaches can’t really

    coach ’em up because the players are too impressed with themselves, and the coaches are

    too afraid of them. In America, it is possible to “succeed in spite of yourself.” You just have

    to be in a situation where the obstacles are few and far between. Generally – with last

    Sunday a predicted exception -- that is the case when St. Louis is the opponent. With Romo

    putting the ball in jeopardy anywhere on the field, opposing defensive coordinators who like

    to blitz – like St. Louis’ DC-turned-interim head coach Jim Haslett, who much to our delight

    hounded the Redskins’ QB into losing seven days ago -- will just keep sending everybody

    from all over the place, or disguising it and dropping into an overloaded middle, until Dallas

    can either rush the ball away from trouble, or Romo can figure it out. DALLAS, 27-17.

    *CHICAGO over MINNESOTA by 8

    Through six games, Chicago QB Kyle Orton has posted a respectable 87.7 QB rating – a far

    cry from his cringe-inducing 59.7 rating as an overwhelmed rookie in 2005. The Bears

    defense has also been solid, especially on run defense – allowing only 72 yards per game

    on the ground. They head into their bye week by facing a divisional opponent at home after

    spending four of the past six weeks on the road. It kills the Bears players that they were a

    six-point margin from being undefeated, at least until they blew it against the rising Falcons,

    and while that may be one helluva optimistic outlook, these Bears are playing like they’ve

    had an anchor named Rex (Grossman) removed from around their necks. Coming off a disappointing

    loss to Atlanta, they will be even more motivated to score an important divisional

    victory. Despite some splashy free agent signings in the offseason, Minnesota remains the

    same flawed team as last year’s edition. Excelling in the ground game on both sides, but

    incapable of completing or defending enough passes. The switch from Tarvaris Jackson to

    Gus Frerotte has resulted in two wins, accompanied by the usual dose of mediocrity, and

    Frerotte will find himself a hunted man this week against a tough Chicago pass rush. CHICAGO

    21-13.

    *NY GIANTS over SAN FRANCISCO by 17

    The Giants were –9 in TO Ratio last season, yet 14-6 ATS. They were the only NFL team in

    the last five years to have a bottom-tier TO Ratio, yet be better than 53% vs. the spread.

    Which team is more likely to win the turnover stat -- the power-laden Giants offense that

    avoids bad down-and-distance situations and plays in front of a defense that creates them?

    Or, the fluky-dookie 49ers offense with Mike Martz pulling the puppet strings, and a defense

    held hostage by the disregard for field position? Super Bowl winners have historically been

    bad bets over the course of the follow-up season. But as stated in the Zone Blitz 2008

    released in August, the Giants had the Turnover Thing to improve upon and a very legitimate

    right to succeed in that area, and our people would not advised to be doomed lemmings by

    targeting the G-Men as the kind of blind, go-against that blinded “trend” people would. Big

    Blue played sloppy yet won it all last year. How bad is the rest of the league, and how much

    air can they put between themselves and others as their act is polished? NY GIANTS, 34-17.

    *HOUSTON over DETROIT by 12

    Detroit is mired at the bottom of the NFL heap with its three-headed quarterback troll named

    “Kitnorlovston.” Sadly, Jon Kitna being healthy enough to take snaps under center is probably

    the best thing that could happen for this offense. At least he’s used to being sacked a

    dozen times a game. Orlovsky went and got hurt the moment he came into a game and

    Stanton managed to get hurt before even getting in a single game. Clearly, these quarterbacks

    know the drill – it’s a sinking ship and there’s a real threat of 0-16. Despite Houston’s

    1-4 SU record, at least this team knows that they are capable of more. The football gods dealt

    them a bad hand at the beginning of the season, combining a brutal schedule with a hurricane

    and a forced bye during the second week. Things can only get better as long as Sage

    Rosenfels isn’t re-introduced behind center for them, and the tide began to turn last Sunday

    in the winning comeback vs. Miami. This is a team that went 8-8 last season and did not

    appreciably diminish in talent level. They finally have a real running back in Steve Slaton.

    With Matt Schaub starting, the offense can move the ball as long as Andre Johnson can avoid

    dropping passes. Don’t laugh, these things are well within the realm of possibility, unlike the

    prospects of Detroit turning around their season despite competing for four quarters for the

    first time this season last Sunday. We actually expected that (see Midweek Update Best Bet

    winner, on Detroit at Minnesota). HOUSTON 26-14.

    NY JETS over *OAKLAND by 7

    Bret Favre and his Gang Green cross country to visit the Black Hole of Al Davis’ festering

    paranoia. Assistant head coach Bill Callahan has to feel good about the way things have

    quickly unraveled since he helped pull the first threads from the sweater of the Raider-dom

    and it seems as if Al Davis’ mental acuity has unraveled along with the structural integrity of

    the Oakland front office. The only way Oakland can compete is by running the ball over and

    over and not letting the opponent get out to a big lead; after all, it’s not as if JaMarcus Russell

    is going to lead them to a comeback victory. Unfortunately, the Oakland running backs have

    been an injured mess this season: Justin Fargas with a groin pull, Darren McFadden with turf

    toe and Michael Bush remaining as the last man standing. New York, despite some inconsistency,

    has scored a success with Bret Favre at the helm, his play has not having dropped

    off from last year’s high level. While the defense remains a question mark, they face a team

    that poses less of a threat against their shaky secondary than most. Eric Mangini, knowing

    the shakiness of his own running game, will utilize Favre to do the right thing: get the Jets

    out to an early lead that they can milk with 3-yard gains from Thomas Jones. The AFC East

    is up for grabs this year and the Jets need to win these types of games if they want to cash

    in on their offseason investments. NEW YORK 24-17.

    *WASHINGTON over CLEVELAND by 14

    The Redskins’ predictable “any given Sunday” defeat to winless and ATS-less St. Louis – you

    would know since you read about it six days before it happened in a forecasted Best Bet winner

    here – gives Washington a nice, motivating springboard to snap back from as they

    remain home with a bad taste in the mouths and prepare to use the Browns as a bottle of

    Scope. Speaking of scope, Cleveland’s offense hasn’t appeared to have much as it deals with

    OL and WR injuries and playing stronger opponents than last season’s string ’o cupcakes.

    Going into the Monday Night game vs. the Giants, Cleveland’s offensive yards per pass

    attempt was 4.5, the NFL’s lowest. If the Browns’ rushing yards per carry was better than,

    say, the 3.8 yards per attempt it was, maybe they wouldn’t have lost their first three games

    and needed to face winless Cincinnati and the Bengals’ second-string QB to get off the ’08

    schneid. St. Louis had the edges of two weeks and an ex-Washington insider (Al Saunders)

    to successfully target the flat ’Skins. Cleveland has a short week, travel, and nobody on their

    staff to help pull an inside job. WASHINGTON, 31-17.

    *TAMPA BAY over SEATTLE by 7

    Jeff Garcia’s return to the Tampa line-up helped them thrash the Panthers, but is the real

    secret weapon Warrick Dunn? Since returning from a six-year exile in Atlanta, Dunn has

    seemingly found the fountain of youth in Florida, notching his highest yards-per-carry average

    since 2005 and picking up the slack for Earnest Graham, who has failed to capture his

    form of last year. Jon Gruden’s “strategy” of alternating his quarterbacks every few weeks

    has yielded surprising results, but since neither Griese nor Garcia can keep up their play for

    more than 2-3 weeks before getting hurt, it probably shouldn’t be so surprising. It might be

    a lesson that Mike Holmgren might want to learn in light of the dismal health of his squad.

    It’s an open question as to whether Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Frye will run the Seahawks

    this week, but it’s doubtful that will matter considering the way the Tampa-2 has defended

    the West Coast offense. TAMPA BAY 17-10.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 15 2008 7:37pm
16. 0 likes

    THE SPORTS REPORTER - NCAA

    BEST BET

    *UTAH over COLORADO STATE by 34

    The newspaper headline said: “Utes roll despite lackluster offense.” The lead in the story,

    written by a woman sportswriter, said, “Let's just go ahead and call it like it is: The

    chances of Utah's offense ever looking like a smooth-running model of efficiency seem

    slim this season.” Alrighty, then. Thanks for the cue, girlie. Utah’s offense is a well-balanced,

    versatile spread. Colorado State’s defense isn’t deep or quick, and it loves the

    game so much, it stays on the field as long as it can: opponent third down conversion

    rate is 52%. Luckily for them so far, their chug-along offensive buddies have converted

    45%. But the latter figure will decrease as they play familiar Mountain West foes with

    good defenses, like Utah. CSU was 1-for-13 in third down conversions vs. the Utes last

    season. Failure to convert forces Colorado State to do something they live in fear of doing

    – punting -- while everyone on their sideline crosses their fingers and closes their eyes.

    TCU’s offense was bumbling in 30-degree weather and kept Colorado State in the game

    last Saturday. The weatherman is saying that the Rams won’t catch that break for this

    game. UTAH, 45-11.

    BEST BET

    MARSHALL over *UAB by 15

    Class drop! Incompetence vs. Big East opponents in their recruiting territory should not

    be held against Marshall when they drop down into a C-USA East Division match-up,

    where they are currently 2-0. Head coach Mark Snyder’s parting words to the 2-0 record

    prior to facing West Virginia and Cincinnati were, “let the others fight each other,” referring

    to intra-conference play while he was eyeing the opportunity to make good on the

    recruiting promise to “play” on national television. Farther along in his Marshall Plan than

    Year Two head coach Calloway is in his second-season at under-stocked UAB, Snyder

    has had nearly a month of “exhibitions” and bye time to prime the pump, adjust that driver’s

    seat and secure both hands on the steering wheel on the path to 3-0. UAB is still

    riding in a balky bumper car that the attendant needs to straighten out. They are bad

    enough defensively that they are forced to pick a poison and hope the other team isn’t

    capable of delivering the killer dose. MARSHALL, 31-16.

    BEST BET

    *NAVY over PITTSBURGH by 8

    “Oh, Pittsburgh’s two weeks to prepare for Navy will be exactly what they need to learn

    how to make big stops against the Middies’ offense.” People who believe that have also

    always believed that in four years, the candidate of their choice will make them better

    off. “Oh, last year’s meeting will really help Pitt learn from their mistakes and enable

    them to get revenge.” About as much as last year’s experience has already helped

    Rutgers and Wake Forest net negative point-swings of -26 and -27 vs. Navy this season.

    “Oh, Navy only beat Air Force because they blocked two punts.” And Pittsburgh has

    allowed special teams scores in each of their last two games. “Oh, Pittsburgh is much

    bigger and stronger than Navy.” And the point is? “Oh, Pittsburgh has so much NFL

    coaching experience in the locker room and Navy only has college coaches.” And the

    point is? How do they make this stuff up? NAVY, 38-30.

    BEST BET

    *WASHINGTON over OREGON STATE by 1

    The three certainties of life are death, taxes, and Ty Willingham won’t be coaching the

    Huskies next year. That said, his current players seem to be rallying around their beleaguered

    coach.Washington comes off of a bye week that allowed backup QB Fouch to get

    much needed snaps and several starters to get healthy. Certainly injured QB Jake Locker

    is better than Fouch, but the coaching staff has moved to more of a spread passing

    offense from the read option that played to Locker’s mobility. Why is that good news?

    Oregon State hasn’t seen much of the new offense, making it tough to prepare. The last

    three weeks have seen Oregon State go from a penny stock to a respectable NASDAQ

    listing. Their defensive front seven is young and still has issues and their QB has penchant

    for making bad decisions (see 4 INTs vs. Washington State). We’ll use the recent

    increase in stock price to our advantage, as we invest in the home CEO with nothing to

    lose. WASHINGTON, 28-27.

    BEST BET

    LSU over *SOUTH CAROLINA by 18

    Six of seven of South Carolina’s games have been decided by 10 or less, including four

    straight wins. They haven’t played a very good defense since a 14-7 home loss to

    Georgia, so the priced-in winning streak is a bit overrated. Special teams were a huge

    part of last week’s win – including a blocked field goal returned for a TD. Can’t count on

    that every week. Spurrier will likely go with the young QB Garcia after his performance

    last week, but the kid holds on to the ball too long (3 sacks in 17 drop backs last week)

    and is prone to making bad reads. The LSU defense isn’t quite as forgiving as the

    Gamecocks’ recent victims – even less so after giving up half-a-hundred + 1 to Florida.

    The South Carolina running game emulates Tiger Woods by being sub-par – leaving the

    QBs to do all of the work. Les Miles now has QBs who have been battle tested by playing

    at night in the Swamp. It doesn’t get much tougher than that. His RBs will find space

    behind a massive o-line and the RB/WR speed is a good matchup against the Gamecocks

    over-sized linebackers. LSU, 30-12.

    RECOMMENDED

    GEORGIA TECH over *CLEMSON by 5

    It’s an early Halloween nightmare for beleaguered home coach T. Bowden and coaching

    staff. The Georgia Tech coaches might as well arrive in black suits, dark glasses and

    solemn faces before they each drill a few more wood screws into the Clemson coffin.

    “Clemson has two extra days to prepare for Georgia Tech’s difficult-to-defend offense,

    and…” – stop, don’t go there. An opposing offense doing new and different things that

    happen to be working well is the last thing Clemson needs to see. At quarterback,

    Clemson has culled the starter and intends to plant Willy Korn on the field behind center

    to help spark a sputtering offense. Korn, ethanol, alternative fuel. Sure, you get it. But

    other clutch playmakers are injury-worn, they were kind enough to announce the switch

    to Tech way in advance, and a 6’1’ QB will be throwing over 6’4” and 6’7” defensive

    ends. GEORGIA TECH, 27-22.

    RECOMMENDED

    *GEORGIA over VANDERBILT by 24

    As predicted in last week’s main issue, Vandy’s house of cards came crashing down in

    Starkville. While the Nashville natives are playing 52-card pickup, the Dawgs will play the

    role of table bully. UGA has far better skill players than anything Vanderbilt’s defense has

    seen. After Stafford and crew get out to a lead, defensive coordinator Willie Martinez will

    sick his 11 on what is arguably the SEC’s worst offense. Tough to execute the “run, with

    a splash of pass, play solid defense and hang in the game” game plan when you are

    down two scores. UGA’s 12-point win over Tennessee was a bit misleading. They won the

    first down and yardage battles 29-10 and 460-250, but two red zone picks erased additional

    scoring opps. GEORGIA, 34-10.

    THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16

    FLORIDA STATE over *NORTH CAROLINA STATE by 9

    With Xavier Bad Boy Lee at quarterback last season, FSU gained 381 offensive yards while

    the defense shut ’em out for the final three quarters of a 27-10 win. But NC State was –4 in

    TO Ratio for that game, playing with one of its infamously bad QBs and without its two best

    running backs. Now, with QB Russell Wilson having two decent games under his belt vs. East

    Carolina and Boston College and 228-pound #1 RB Andre Brown fresh and ready to pound

    the piggie, you can leave that ‘Beware of Home Dog’ sign hanging in Raleigh. However, with

    so many injuries, they are a wounded home dog. FLORIDA STATE, 23-14.

    *TCU over BYU by 2

    Horned Frogs are arguably the biggest roadblock on BYU’s path to Unbeaten City and the

    home team has this one circled. The Cougs got a taste of physical last week in New Mexico

    and will get more of it with a short week turnaround. TCU mans the nation’s top defense and

    will try and turn this into a time of possession contest. Starting QB Dalton is nicked up and

    may not play, but the game will come down to BYU’s ability – or lack thereof - to score TDs

    with the passing game. TCU, 22-20.

    FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17

    *BOISE STATE over HAWAII by 22

    Bronco coach Peterson noted before last week’s game that, “We need to run it better.” They

    did, kinda, against Southern Miss, but truth be told they’re winning with the passing attack

    and defense. The Warriors are winners of two straight, but are turnover-prone and a matchup

    on the blue turf likely won’t help that problem. Hard-nosed defense sported by the home

    favorite will be enough to earn the methodical win. BOISE STATE, 35-12.

    SATURDAY, OCTOBER 18

    *RUTGERS over CONNECTICUT by 3

    Readers on Rutgers have achieved the predicted 2-0 ATS in Big East play. Connecticut’s

    starting quarterback is suddenly injured for Big East season, while Rutgers is destined to finish

    the course with long-time starting senior Mike Teel, who they manage to protect very

    well. Keep going? No, back off for now. Connecticut is looking to get by with its Notre Dame

    transfer QB in his first Big East start, handing off to Donald Brown in a simple offense (vs.

    the spread system that Cincinnati plugged their #4 QB into for only 13 points vs. Rutgers last

    Saturday). But if UConn’s defense does its usual good job, then it only takes one Huskies’

    throw to force Rutgers to be perfect in executing the few things they can do on offense right

    now. RUTGERS, 13-10.

    *MARYLAND over WAKE FOREST by 4

    The small Maryland defensive front will allow rushing yards and try to stiffen in the red zone.

    They want to blitz and create havoc, which normally wouldn’t work against the old, runhappy

    Wake team. But the Demon Deacons now sport a 50-50 Run-Pass split, a tendency

    that they are not going to like about themselves as opponents pick up on the difference from

    three seasons of 64%, 65% and 60% Wake Forest running plays. And if they don’t get their

    place-kicker/punter 100% healthy back from injury, then Wake is not at full strength. MARYLAND,

    23-19.

    *EAST CAROLINA over MEMPHIS by 11

    The shine is off the media’s early season gem and now ECU is battling to keep their heads

    above .500. They can’t seem to run the ball well, but the Tigers don’t like to defend much.

    Memphis will throw the kitchen sink at the Pirates on offense, and if they execute will give

    ECU all they can handle. Just ask Louisville – who needed three non-offensive TDs to overcome

    a 29-13 first down disadvantage against Memphis last Friday night. But ECU’s defense

    carries greater knowledge of the opponent, and more playmakers. EAST CAROLINA, 34-23.

    MIAMI-FL over *DUKE by 10

    A loss to Duke will no doubt kill any credibility that ’Canes coach Randy Shannon has built

    this year. For that reason, look for him to ask the defense to win it, while asking his offense

    just not to lose it. On the other side of the street, Duke’s David Cutcliffe comes off of a bye

    week into a home battle that could give his team street cred. They’ll chuck it all over the

    place, but Miami will win for two simple reasons – they have better athletes and more of ‘em.

    MIAMI-FL, 23-13.

    *BOSTON COLLEGE over VIRGINIA TECH by 5

    Tech’s Beamers are revving up the engines with their sights set on winning the ACC Coastal,

    then leveraging that into an ACC Title Game win and their BCS date. It’s there for them, with

    wins already against division foes North Carolina and Georgia Tech and only multiply-challenged

    Duke, Virginia and Miami-FL to beat out. They can afford to lose this inter-division

    road game, a fact we do not like as far as their chances to win it are concerned. It’s a bigger

    game for BC, given the opportunity to avenge last season’s ACC Title Game defeat to

    Virginia Tech and say, “See you in December again?” BOSTON COLLEGE, 17-12.

    *SOUTH FLORIDA over SYRACUSE by 22

    South Florida’s Jim Leavitt recruits in a fertile ground against better programs from other

    conferences, but the well hasn’t run dry yet. Turnover-seeking home defense vs. mostly

    embarrassing Syr-excuse offense that has nevertheless cleaned up its formerly sloppy act

    but still cannot move the football against decent defenses. But South Florida is overrated. You

    knew that before the season started. The quarterback Grothe still needs to get too involved

    in their offense, and they can’t cover big spreads without the aid of turnovers, which won’t

    always be a comin’. SOUTH FLORIDA, 39-17.

    WISCONSIN over *IOWA by 1

    QB play is killing the Badgers and coach Bielema may introduce starter Everidge to the pine

    this week. He has two very good backs and a huge o-line, so kid, stop turning the ball over.

    Like a Mongolian beauty queen, Iowa can win ugly. Their QB situation ain’t the best, but the

    offense is better since RB Shonn Green got healthy. Lots of blood, sweat, and dust in this one

    where a motivated road team, coming off three straight conference losses, finds a way to

    win. WISCONSIN, 20-19.

    *NORTHWESTERN over PURDUE by 8

    The only successful stops Purdue makes on the road are for food, shelter and the toilet, with

    the latter exerting a magnetic pull on Joe Tiller’s final season as head coach. Defensive coordinator

    Brock Spack is constantly spackling and sanding to cover up holes in the wall, which

    Northwestern’s offense will spread thin and punch. “I think that’s what’s great about this

    defense, we’re never going to surrender or give up,” says one player. Not even when they’re

    trailing by 17, after Northwestern teaches its QB Bacher that his team wears purple. NORTHWESTERN,

    31-23.

    *OKLAHOMA over KANSAS by 17

    The Sooners’ first five opponents know what it feels like to tackle Stoops after a loss (post

    last year’s Fiesta Bowl). If Kansas’ offense was TNT last year, it’s a cherry bomb this year.

    Todd Reesing is good, but despite a decent showing vs. out-manned Colorado last week, the

    rushing attack is non-existent. Texas showed offensive balance in beating OU…Kansas

    won’t in losing to them. Stoops’ concerns over his own rush offense will quickly be subsided

    as QB Bradford hits 65% of his throws for 250+…in the first half. OKLAHOMA, 38-21.

    *BOWLING GREEN over MIAMI OH by 14

    "For the fifth straight time, we came out and got behind," Miami-OH coach Shane

    Montgomery said after losing home to Temple. "If we continue to do that, it's going to be hard

    to come back against good football teams." Miami-OH then came out and got behind 0-10

    against Northern Illinois, not a good team. Any team is a good team compared to Miami-OH.

    BOWLING GREEN, 31-17.

    *CENTRAL MICHIGAN over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 2

    Both sides are confident they can throw the ball to win the Directional Bowl. The up-anddown

    34-31 defeat suffered last November with 12 seconds remaining is stuck in Western’s

    craw. If they keep 6’4”, 230 WR Jamarko Simmons on a leash and he doesn’t get tossed for

    kicking a Central player like he did in the first quarter of last year’s loss, they’ll have a full

    complement of offensive talent as well as having the defense that puts more pressure on

    quarterbacks. When LeFevour hadn’t been sacked in four games last year, Western nailed

    him three times. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 31-29.

    NEBRASKA over *IOWA STATE by 9

    Iowa State seems like a much better match-up for Nebraska than the Huskers have had in

    their three straight defeats. The Cyclones’ units have a lot of first-season performers sprinkled

    throughout the starters and the two-deep, they gain 200 fewer yards per game than

    Missouri and Texas Tech, and their defense has allowed more yards than the offense has

    gained. Nebraska’s offensive linemen have 40-50 pounds on Iowa State’s defensive ends

    and are also bigger than most of Iowa State’s interior linemen. With the scoreboard situation

    unlikely to be seriously against them early, Huskers’ running backs Lucky and Castille, the

    latter at 245 pounds, drive them towards temporary redemption. NEBRASKA, 27-18.

    *TENNESSEE over MISSISSIPPI STATE by 7

    Beating 2-4 MSU certainly won’t salvage Tennessee’s season, but losing here could deep six

    it. Two slow, plodding offenses will compete for yawns in what is certain to be a sluggish

    slugfest. Suits UT a bit better, if only because they bring a better defense to the table. WR

    Gerald Jones is a play-maker for Fulmer and he’s matched by – well – nobody in Mississippi

    State’s huddle. Bulldog coach Croom noted after Saturday’s Best Bet straight up win that,

    “We got our identity back.” Not so sure that he shouldn’t put it back where he found it. TENNESSEE,

    20-13.

    *ALABAMA over MISSISSIPPI by 10

    Bama’s talented offensive front should keep a pass rush-oriented Rebel defensive line at bay

    while a bevy of talented running backs do damage. The Ole Miss defense is a veteran crew

    – but once the Tide gets the ground game rolling, the vets will have their collective heads on

    a swivel when QB Wilson breaks out the play-action. Backing Saban could get dicey, as Rebel

    general Houston Nutt had an extra week to prep and he excels at designing game plans for

    his play-makers. ALABAMA, 31-21.

    *EASTERN MICHIGAN over AKRON by 1

    Howdy, stranger. The MAC inter-division foes haven’t met since ’03. The EMUs went back to

    the ranks of the undead at Army and the Akronism defense joined them in zombie zone during

    its fourth-quarter meltdown vs. Bowling Green. At least EMU won’t have to worry about

    a fullback pounding them in a triple-option offense this Saturday. They figure to get more

    than a paltry 59 offensive plays, not that they ever do much with however many they attempt

    to execute. EASTERN MICHIGAN, 24-23.

    TEXAS TECH over *TEXAS A&M by 21

    At 2-4, A&M first-year coach Sherman is at risk for losing this team. Facing a 6-0 SU offensive

    juggernaut won’t help. Nebraska laid out the blueprint for beating the Red Raiders –

    keep it out of QB Harrell’s hands. The Huskers controlled the ball last week for 40 minutes –

    but Harrell still put up nearly 300 yards and was his clinical self – hitting on 20 of 25

    attempts. The Aggies will try this ball control technique – but to no avail. Sophomore QB

    Jerrod Johnson won’t be able to move the chains with patience and discipline, meaning that

    Harrell will get to chuck it 40+ times, meaning that Tech will certainly put up 40+ in Kyle

    Field. TEXAS TECH, 44-23.

    *RICE over SOUTHERN MISS by 7

    Southern Miss forgot to show up on their home field vs. Rice last season, and they may wish

    they hadn’t shown up after this trip is over. Rice picked them like cotton a year ago and

    Southern Miss tossed 20 incomplete passes to go with their 4 INTs and three fumbles. That

    was when Southern Miss was a running team. Now that they’re a faker passing team (that

    runs Damion Fletcher too much), Rice might get 6 INTs while their own Clement to Dilliard

    combo gets three more TDs. RICE, 41-34.

    SOUTHERN CAL over *WASHINGTON STATE by 38

    A sign in the Washington State Student Center reads, “Quarterback needed. Must have a

    strong arm and an affinity for getting tackled, hard. No experience required.” Open tryouts –

    yes, open tryouts – are being held for a backup QB role on the Palouse. That’s certainly not

    a good sign when the most talented team in the nation comes calling. Looked like Pete

    Carroll had ASU +28.5 last week and he’ll be able to name the score again this week. No

    matter what the offense does, defenses always like shutouts. They’ll get very close again.

    SOUTHERN CAL, 44-6.

    OHIO STATE over *MICHIGAN STATE by 4

    The Sparty party never really got started when limited to 186 offensive yards in last year’s

    game by the Buckeyes’ defense, while OSU’s running back Beanie Wells was gaining 221

    yards of his own. Our people got the miracle back-door cover on then-road dog Michigan

    State via two defensive touchdowns when the Stiff Boeckman did his team-killing act for

    Ohio State. An early two-score lead for the Buckeyes removed Michigan State’s elite running

    game from the equation that day, and forced their overrated quarterback to lead them from

    behind. He didn’t. If asked to do so again under similar scoreboard circumstances, he probably

    wouldn’t. OHIO STATE, 20-16.

    *TEXAS over MISSOURI by 3

    Mizzou was shell-shocked following last weekend’s loss that saw them struggle with

    turnovers and 3rd down conversions. Texas is riding high after beating #1, but their young

    secondary was exposed to the tune of nearly 400 yards and 5 TDs. Tiger QB Daniel is a savvy

    vet who will also make the back seven pay. Longhorn nation’s saving grace will be QB Colt

    McCoy, who is playing better than any signal caller in the country. Close one, but UT gets in

    done at home. TEXAS, 38-35.

    NORTH CAROLINA over *VIRGINIA by 1

    The Heels were over-priced before beating Notre Dame, more so now, but this isn’t the spot

    to sell short. UVA has showed spark after the 31-3 loss to Duke, but the offense is too inconsistent

    and turnover prone. Not a good combo against the nation’s leader in picks. UNC takes

    a slow tempo approach and won’t blow you out of the gym, so road favorite backers will be

    chomping nails until the final buzzer. UNC, 17-16.

    *NORTHERN ILLINOIS over TOLEDO by 2

    First-season NIU head coach Jerry Kill has been working those mirrors nicely, as 4-1 ATS

    attests. An offensive third down conversion rate of 47.8% combined with a defensive third

    down conversion rate of 30% had been getting it done. But both of those rates went the other

    way against them vs. Miami-OH, NIU’s first loss vs. the spread. To suddenly start laying points

    against familiar foes (this one hung a 70-21 beating on NIU last season) as the starting QB

    is injured and others are juggled, is to perhaps be grasping at vaporized value. Also, anyone

    predicting a Toledo letdown after winning at Michigan is a presumptuous person not in the

    Toledo locker room or on its practice field. NORTHERN ILLINOIS, 23-21.

    *NEVADA over UTAH STATE by 20

    Nevada’s offense owns bottom-rung defenses manned by lesser athletes. They put up 45

    points and 300+ yards on the ground last week in a loss, and will get similar numbers in a

    win this week. QB Kaepernick will point the “pistol” offense at the head of Brent Guy’s

    defense and squeeze the trigger. USU must score TDs on at least half of its possessions to

    have a shot. Their QB is a newbie and doesn’t yet have the appetite for digesting road games

    against better opponents. NEVADA, 41-21.

    *PENN STATE over MICHIGAN by 20

    Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez knows where he’s taking his club. Problem is he has to go

    through the slums to get there. Michigan couldn’t muster 300 yards against the sieve-like

    Toledo defense at home so what do we expect in Happy Valley? Not much. PSU has the eye

    of the tiger and despite their 2-4 record, the name “Michigan” on the schedule exudes the

    big game aura. Lions will be 3 TD favorites and it seems like easy pickings. Tread lightly, as

    Rich Rod’s defense could hold the home team down a bit if his offense can just hold on to

    the ball. PENN STATE, 30-10.

    *NEW MEXICO over SAN DIEGO STATE by 18

    Lobos thrive against defensive lightweights who have no offense. Who doesn’t? SDSU has

    managed just 249 yards combined in the last two games and the defense has paid the price.

    How willing will they be to tackle New Mexico pigskin toters after facing 77 rushing attempts

    against Air Force? New Mexico averages 278 yards rushing in its wins, but sub-130 in losses.

    They have a good shot at 300 come Saturday. NEW MEXICO, 28-10.

    *KENTUCKY over ARKANSAS by 6

    Hog TB Michael Smith is a little guy at 5’7” – yet Bobby P. gave him the rock 35 times in the

    upset win at Auburn. To that Smith said, “I didn’t know that I had carried it so much, but I

    think my body knows it.” No rest for the weary kid. Kentucky’s run defense is excellent and

    their game plan simple – make QB Dick beat us. He’s better at turning and giving it to Smith

    and won’t do enough to win their second straight on the road. KENTUCKY, 22-16.

    CALIFORNIA over *ARIZONA by 6

    The Bears’ 3-4 defense is unique in college football and will cause confusion for the Arizona

    passing game. The Wildcats don’t have a running game to speak of, so the game will rest on

    QB Tuitama’s arm. That is if he can even get the ball. His defensive mates struggle against

    decent running teams and most recently gave up 286 on the ground to Stanford. The Cardinal

    don’t have anybody of Cal’s Jhavid Best’s caliber, but the stud RB has been hurt so keep an

    eye on his status coming off of a bye. CAL, 27-21.

    *LOUISIANA TECH over IDAHO by 13

    Tech’s QB play has killed them this year, forcing a change mid-game vs. Hawaii. Won’t be a

    factor this week against the nation’s worst defense. Idaho improved their total defense numbers

    by giving up 430 yards to Fresno State. last week. Great job fellas. Whoever QBs for Tech

    will be asked to give the ball to the running backs ASAP. LOUISIANA TECH, 27-14.

    *COLORADO over KANSAS STATE by 4

    CU appears to be going in reverse due in large part to o-line injuries. Those injuries mean

    that the Buffs can’t run it, meaning they must throw it, leading to an unbalanced offense that

    can’t stay on the field. Hawkins will go back to the ground game in an attempt to stem a

    three-game losing streak. Good news out of Boulder is that K-State and their phantom

    defense is coming to town. Colorado tailbacks will enjoy open green grass for a change. COLORADO,

    31-27.

    *OKLAHOMA STATE over BAYLOR by 20

    Cowboys have lassoed all opponents ATS, going 5-0. They’re giving a chunk to a young, talented

    Baylor team that has yet to win on the road. Not gonna get their first against a team

    that hasn’t scored less than 55 points at home this year. For Baylor, the combo of athletic QB

    Griffin and offensive-minded coach Briles has proven lethal at times. They’ll find the end zone

    a few times vs. a D that played a bit over their head at Mizzou. OKLAHOMA STATE, 44-24.

    *BUFFALO over ARMY by 13

    Buffalo head coach Turner Gill was one of the best option quarterbacks of all time at

    Nebraska and defensive coordinator Jimmy Williams played there with him as a defensive

    end. But those facts, and getting your defense to play against that kind of offense with one

    week to prepare, are two very different animals. It’s crazy, but Army’s option attack has

    recently registered improvement. The home team’s confident running game should establish

    field position edges and eventually get the better of a very underrated Army defense. BUFFALO,

    27-14.

    *TULSA over UTEP by 11

    Tulsa leads the nation with 597 offensive yards per game. Since the C-USA bell rang and they

    got serious, UTEP has gained 415 yards per game. Differences can be deceiving. UTEP ranks

    Top 10 in the nation in Time of Possession, (34 minutes per game). Wily Mike Price is doing

    his best to slice the pie and pass it around with sleight of hand tricks. Tulsa’s offense, at 27.5

    minutes of possession per game, gobbles and swallows yards and points faster. But didn’t

    mom tell them that it can be rude or dangerous to eat so quickly? If possession is 9/10ths

    of the law, wouldn’t you want to consider the opportunity to rule 8 more minutes – 13.3% of

    the game -- with a bunch of U Take’Em Points in this case? TULSA, 38-27.

    *NEW MEXICO STATE over SAN JOSE STATE by 3

    NMSU knows they need to outscore whomever they play, but it’ll be a tough chore against a

    stingy pass defense that has allowed just two TD passes on the year. San Jose’s game

    revolves around their defense and its ability to turn you over. Aggie QB Holbrook has a ton of

    experience and is playing at home. We like his chances. NEW MEXICO STATE, 26-23.

    HOUSTON over *SMU by 19

    The visitor can get 400 to 500 yards of passing offense. The home team is a 400 to 500

    passing yard wannabe logging only 59 offensive plays per game vs. Houston’s 81.0. The visiting

    defense will often help wannabes get to where they want to go and the Houston special

    teams are always happy to lend the opponent a helping hand. But if a June Jones’

    offense isn’t playing fast enough, it’s because he lives in fear of being embarrassed. Playing

    scared is not good. Tulsa kept SMU in it last week by running 50 times in 81 plays (vs. only

    62 plays for SMU). Houston will pass it in the neighborhood of 50 times, probably with much

    success. HOUSTON, 42-23.

    *ILLINOIS over INDIANA by 20

    Something about Indiana says to stay away from them against an opponent with good defensive

    athletes like Illinois. The Hoosiers will force more than a few passes into coverage if the

    Illini contain their zippy little runners. With injuries up and down the defensive unit, Indiana’s

    annual extended implosion could arrive earlier than the usual November 1. ILLINOIS, 40-20.

    *UNLV over AIR FORCE by 1

    The Rebs had two weeks to prepare for the Falcon triple option. Good thing considering what

    Nevada did to them out of the “pistol” – 444 yards rushing. Fly boys had two freshman

    account for 27 carries against SDSU last week.We all don’t win Super Best Bets (!) on teams

    with that kind of make-up unless the other side has major problems. The challenges will be

    stiffer vs. better personnel who spent the week working on fundamentals. UNLV, 24-23.

    *UCLA over STANFORD by 3

    Stanford may rely more on their RBs this week if QB Pritchard doesn’t play after getting

    dinged last week. The Bruin defense had trouble against the BYUs and Oregons of the world,

    but Stanford runs closer to Tennessee’s pace – so the home boys can hang. Look for Norm

    Chow to get the ball in the hands of his tailbacks, ’cause his QB is just so-so. UCLA, 17-14.

    *WESTERN KENTUCKY over FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 2

    Still-Independent WKU is an interesting home dog vs. a visitor that has the nation’s worst red

    zone conversion rate. Western Kentucky’s defense has been hanging in there while its

    offense has been waiting for a class drop like this to unleash its maximum capabilities, and

    its defense will not be bullied and worn down in this match-up. WESTERN KENTUCKY, 26-24.

    *LOUISVILLE over MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 19

    Middle Tennessee’s QB Joe Craddock is finding that Grandpa Joad was easier to move in

    open space than this year’s offensive unit. MTS wagons don’t keep rolling without the trickery-

    dickery-dock stuff, and they lack a consistent running threat. Louisville can pound it on

    the ground from several angles to soften ’em up for an improving passing game. Visiting

    coach Stockstill has a deep bag of tricks for his attempt to counter. LOUISVILLE, 41-22.

    *UL-MONROE over NORTH TEXAS by 19

    North Texas’ defensive numbers make you want to call a recruiting coordinator, use some of

    their creative enrollment tactics and wiggle your way into walk-on spot as a fifth-year senior

    offensive player, doesn’t it? Old defensive backs would also be interested in playing

    against the North Texas offense for a chance to pick the Vizza Man. But don’t be surprised if

    they cover this game, because the Monrovians do not run the ball well – relatively speaking.

    What doesn’t work vs. others tends to do well vs. the Mean Green. UL-MONROE, 41-22.

    ARKANSAS STATE over *UL-LAFAYETTE by 2

    The Lafalots’ defense is pinning the Matador Meter: 250 rushing yards allowed per game.

    Arkansas State’s downhill running attack (245 rushing yards per game) will thrive. In conference

    clashes like this, ASU can often get their inside yards despite an overloaded defensive

    box. If Cory Leonard was a better passer, ASU’s opponents wouldn’t be able to cheat up

    and hang with them as frequently as they do. The Lafalots are similar. They love to run

    because passing is bad for them. ARKANSAS STATE, 27-25.

    *TROY over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL by 10

    Starting quarterback Jamie Hampton was forced from Troy’s victory with a left knee ACL

    injury. Facing FIU’s needy offense will help Troy keep a little bit of scoreboard separation

    despite the production they figure to lose with a change in field generals. If Tanner Jones’

    inexperience and less mobility leaves Troy without a guy who can extinguish the flaming hair

    on FIU’s defenders, the visiting stop unit will benefit from a slower tempo and too many safe

    plays, or burn the homers by setting up or scoring some cheap points. TROY STATE, 20-10.

    TUESDAY, OCTOBER 21

    *TEMPLE over OHIO by 2

    Temple’s 60 plays per game plodding offense won’t be scared of Ohio’s fly-to-the-football

    defense. Like Temple’s back-up QB, Ohio’s new starting QB Boo Jackson is also in his first

    season of big-time football, and if he was capable of making more right reads than wrong,

    Ohio would be better than 2-5 SU right now. But if there isn’t a limit to how successful a

    Temple team can be vs. the spread generating only 102 rushing yards and 163 passing

    yards per game, then there at least oughta be a law. Owl not be denied? TEMPLE, 19-17.

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 15 2008 7:40pm
17. 0 likes

    Red Sheet

    RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE

    GEORGIA 31 - Vanderbilt 6 - (12:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 15½, and is now minus 14½.

    The 'Dores have had quite a ride, with their 5-0 start, but came crashing down to earth in

    last week's 17-14 loss to MississippiSt, in which Vandy managed a paltry 7 FDs & 107 yds.

    Now travelling to take on a Bulldog squad, which has shed any pressure situation, thanks to

    its loss to Alabama a few weeks ago. Note edges of 29-10 in FDs, 148-1 in RYs, & 458-209

    in total yds, in Georgia's win over Tennessee. Thus, Vandy, with its 114th rated offense,

    coupled with last week's draining effort, will be up against it. 'Dawgs!

    RATING: GEORGIA 89

    Georgia Tech 30 - CLEMSON 13 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 4, and is now GeorgiaTech

    minus 1. Admittedly, we like to string along with ACC dogs in such affairs, but just can't

    ignore the continuing woes of the Tigers, who not only are on an 0-7 spread slide by 67½

    pts, but managed just 21 RYs in their latest embarrassment. And to make matters worse,

    they may be without RB Spiller (hamstring), have benched QB Harper, & have said goodbye

    to head coach Tommy Bowden. The Jackets have unleashed a potent overland game,

    & have won their last 2 lined tilts by a combined 65-7 score. Winner covers. Tech!

    RATING: GEORGIA TECH 89

    So California 71 - WASHINGTON STATE 7 - (3:30) -- Line opened at USC minus 41, and is now minus 42.

    Can't get much more in the way of a heavy road chalk than the 6-TD spot in this one, but

    until things change, just have to keep cashing in by opposing the futility that is this Cougar

    outfit. Now have a 51-11 ppg deficit in lined affairs, & have lost their last 2 home games by

    scores of 63-14 & 66-3. They've been bitten by the QB injury bug all season, & have now

    lost RS frosh signalcaller Lobbestael for the season. Troy well remembers its last RG, a

    monumental flop vs OregonSt. Not the focus that this Coog squad needs.

    RATING: SO CALIFORNIA 88

    IOWA 40 - Wisconsin 14 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Iowa minus 4½, and is now minus 3½. Almost under

    the radar, is the recent demise of the Badgers of Wisconsin, who figured to be among the

    elites at season's end. As a matter of fact, they were ranked 11th in the nation on our "Polls"

    column in week #1 of Pointwise. Well, try, not only 3 consecutive setbacks, but off their

    worst home loss (48-7) in 19 years. May be nice to get away from Madison, but not in

    Wisky's case, as it has allowed 31, 38, 38, 34, & 27 pts in its last 5 BigTen road games.

    Hawkeyes, in stark contrast, are coming on (28-15 FD edge LW), & have revenge angle.

    RATING: IOWA 88

    Mississippi State 21 - TENNESSEE 13 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 8, and is still minus 8.

    As has been written many times, the bye week sure comes in handy in numerous situations,

    & these Bulldogs were certainly happy recipients of such a break a couple of weeks ago, as

    they were off a 38-7 pummelling at GeorgiaTech, as well as a tough 34-25 setback at LSU.

    Their smothering of then 5-0 Vanderbilt may augur well for their fortunes from here on out.

    Catching the Vols in a Georgia/Alabama sandwich is a plus, as is UT's questionable offense,

    which has produced only 11 ppg in its last 4 outings. An upset call.

    RATING: MISSISSIPPI STATE 88

    Indianapolis 27 - GREEN BAY 17 - (4:15) -- Line opened at GreenBay minus 1, and is now Indianapolis

    minus 1½. As we noted earlier in the week, we decided to steer clear of this one for the

    time being. But that's the reason for a later publication. The Packers took the measure of

    the revenge-minded Seahawks last week, but that was a bit tainted, as they took full advantage

    of Seattle QB Hasselbeck's absence. Not the same this time around, with the Colts'

    offense clicking, & its defense in full takeaway mold (8 in their last 64 minutes of play).

    Packer QB Rodgers still not at 100%, & GB's defensive backfield is hurting. Colts!

    RATING: INDIANAPOLIS 88

    NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): PennSt, BoiseSt, OregonSt, Utah, Missouri -- NFL: Dallas, Houston, Denver

    LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): GaTech (+4 to -1); UConn (+3½ to Pick); LaTech (-17½ to

    -20½); NCSt (+13½ to +11½); Boise (-24 to -26); Baylor (+18½ to +16½); FlaAtl (+3 to +1); SMU (+14 to

    +12½); Monroe (-17½ to -19); Lafayette (-3 to -4½) - NFL: StLouis (+11½ to +7); Indy (+1 to -1½); SanDiego

    (Pick to -1½); Cleve (+10 to +8½); Denver (+4½ to +3); KC (+8 to +7); Houston (-8 to -9). -

    TIME CHANGES:

    Okla/Kans: now 3:30; Tex/Mo: now 8:00. -

    KEY INJURIES: AF QB Jefferson (head) ??; ArizSt QB Carpenter

    (knee) ??; Cal RB Best (elbow) ??; CM QB LeFevour (ankle) probable; Cincy QB Pike (arm) doubtful; Clem

    RB Spiller (hamstring) ??; Fresno RB Mathews (knee) probable; GT QB Nesbitt (hamstring) probable; Iowa

    RB Greene (ankle) probable; KY WR Lyons (knee) out; Mich QB Threet (elbow) ??; Mich RB Minor (ribs) ??;

    MichSt QB Hoyer (shoulder) probable; Navy QB Enhada (hamstring) ??; NC WR Tate (ACL) out; NIU QB

    Nicholson (shoulder) ??; Rice QB Clement; SDSt QB Lindley (shoulder) ??; Stan QB Pritchard (concussion)

    ??; TCU QB Dalton (knee) ??; Troy QB Hampton (knee) out; UCLA RB Bell (knee) prob; Lafayette QB

    Desormeaux (knee) ??; VT RB Lewis (ankle) out; WSt QB Lopina (back) prob. - NFL: Buff QB Edwards

    (concussion) prob; Cincy QB Palmer (elbow) doubtful; Dallas QB Romo (finger) out; KC QB Croyle (shoulder)

    prob; Pitt RB Parker (knee) prob; Seattle QB Hasselbeck (back) doubtful..

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 15 2008 7:44pm
18. 0 likes

    ALL NEWSLETTER PLAYS -- ONE POST

    *** FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER PLAYS AND RECORD TRACKING REPORT ***

    (Top 2 Star Ratings Plays and Special Plays)

    ** NCAA NEWSLETTERS **

    HOT

    CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (5-1-1)...WESTERN MICHIGAN

    DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (5-1)...MISSOURI

    ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (5-1)...DUKE

    ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (4-2)...DUKE

    HQ REPORT 5* (5-1-1)...GEORGIA

    HQ REPORT ATS (5-2)...NEW MEXICO

    JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (3-1)...NAVY

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (6-1)...MISSOURI

    THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (18-12)...GEORGIA TECH…VIRGINIA TECH…S FLORIDA…ARKANSAS…ARMY

    THE RED SHEET 89* (9-4-1)...GEORGIA…GEORGIA TECH

    WINNING POINTS BEST BET (10-4)...OKLAHOMA…GEORGIA TECH

    COLD

    HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (2-5)...NEBRASKA/IOWA ST OVER

    LOGICAL APPROACH MONEYLINE (3-9)...DUKE...WISCONSIN...PURDUE...ARKANSAS ST

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (1-4)...VIRGINIA

    MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (0-3)...UNLV

    NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-6)...OKLAHOMA

    POINTWISE 2* (1-7)...VIRGINIA

    ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (1-3)...VIRGINIA

    WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (11-18-1)...NORTHWESTERN…MISSISSIPPI ST…ALABAMA…STANFORD

    THE REST

    BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (2-3)...COLORADO

    CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 2* (1-2)...

    CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 3* (0-1)...

    CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (11-10-1)...MISSISSIPPI...VANDERBILT...VIRGINIA

    DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (2-3)...DUKE

    ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...MISSOURI

    FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...

    HQ REPORT 4* (0-0)...

    HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (4-3)...NEW MEXICO ST

    KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (8-9-1)...GEORGIA TECH...N ILLINOIS

    LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (4-6)...BUFFALO

    LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (3-3)...WAKE FOREST...TULSA...AIR FORCE

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (4-3)...LSU

    MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (5-6)...GEORGIA...VIRGINIA TECH

    NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (2-1)...COLORADO

    NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (2-0)...GEORGIA

    NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 6* (1-0)...

    NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (50-43-1)...FSU…DUKE…IOWA…W MICHIGAN…NEBRASKA…USC…N ILLINOIS…PENN ST…KENTUCKY…KANSAS ST…S CAROLINA…LOUISVILLE…ULM

    NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (3-2)...MISSOURI

    NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP EARLY BIRD (3-2)...

    POINTWISE 1* (6-8)...IOWA…PENN ST

    SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (9-11-1)...UCONN...CLEMSON...DUKE

    SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (12-14-1)...UTAH…MARSHALL…NAVY…WASHINGTON…LSU

    SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (11-8-1)...GEORGIA TECH…GEORGIA

    SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (3-2)...

    STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (14-14-2)...TCU…KANSAS…ALABAMA…MICHIGAN ST…S CAROLINA

    TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...FLA INTERNATIONAL

    THE GOLD SHEET (13-15)...IOWA...ARKANSAS...SAN JOSE ST...LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

    THE RED SHEET 90* (1-0)...

    TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (2-2)...MISSISSIPPI ST

    VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (2-4)...N CAROLINA...OHIO ST...FL ATLANTIC

    CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF

    11* (5-1-1)...WESTERN MICHIGAN

    10* (11-10-1)...

    Late Score Forecast:

    WESTERN MICHIGAN 40-*Central Michigan 28

    Western Michigan is on a hot streak, as the Broncos have posted a 3-0-1 spread mark and 35 ppg in the last

    month. The offense is in good hands with 6-5 jr. QB Tim Hiller (68%, 23 TD passes and just 5 ints. this season),

    who’s thrown for 550 yds., 6 TDs and just 1 interception in 2 prior games vs. CMU. Western’s receiving corps

    is deep and talented, as WRs Simmons, Julien & Nunez and TE Ledbetter have all already caught 32 or more

    passes. The Broncos balance Hiller’s throws with RB Brandon West, who’s run for an average of 101 yards in

    the last 6 games, and caught 24 passes in ‘08. WMU ranks higher than the Chippewas in several key defensive

    categories, most importantly scoring defense, where the Broncos allow almost a touchdown less per game than

    CMU. WMU is in double-revenge mode, having lost SU to Central in each of the last two years, but the Broncos

    are 4-1-1 vs. the number in the last six meetings.

    10 MISSISSIPPI over *Alabama

    Late Score Forecast:

    MISSISSIPPI 23 - *Alabama 24

    Resurgent Ole Miss succumbed to the “Sport Illustrated Jinx” in 31-24 Oxford loss vs. South Carolina, but believe

    the resilient Rebels can bounce back and perform at the same high level reached in 31-30 upset at Florida. SEC

    scouts report during the bye week HC Houston Nutt is having his team practice with full pads and focusing on

    cutting down on turnovers. Note in its 3 defeats (by combined 15 pts.), Ole Miss has committed 11 TOs (to just

    4 for opponents). Nutt says he is pleased how his players have responded to the harder practices when saying,

    “They’ve had a great attitude, and I’ve had my antenna up.” Fundamentally, Rebels offense possesses the

    balance (156 ypg rushing, 217 passing) and diversity to produce vs. Bama defense that showed some chinks in

    2nd H of 41-30 win vs. Georgia. And with Tide ground assault unlikely to steamroll Rebels front 7 (3.3 ypc, 13

    sacks), Saban’s crew will be in a 60-minute battle. Bama just 3-16 as Tuscaloosa chalk since ‘05.

    10 VANDERBILT over *Georgia

    Late Score Forecast:

    VANDERBILT 20 - *Georgia 24

    Although the loss at Mississippi State puts a crimp in Vandy’s SEC title dreams, have to continue to be impressed

    by the Commodore defense. That unit is allowing just 16 ppg, puts on a tremendous pass rush, and has been

    forcing turnovers and providing the offense with good field position. Special teams have contributed as well, as

    Vandy ranks 22nd in net punting and D.J. Moore is 3rd in the nation in returning punts (23 ypp). The Georgia

    offense was highly touted when the Dawgs were ranked No. 1 in preseason, but production has been a bit

    harder to come by in SEC play, where Georgia has averaged 23 ppg in 3 league contests after pouring in 101 pts

    in first 2 games this season. One reason things have gotten tougher offensively is that the Dawgs have lost their

    top two left tackles to injury. No reason defense and special teams can’t keep Vandy in the game for 60 minutes.

    10 *VIRGINIA over North Carolina

    Late Score Forecast:

    *VIRGINIA 26 - North Carolina 20

    Now that North Carolina’s star WR/returner Tate (ACC-leading 165 all-purpose ypg) is out for year with a torn

    ACL, ACC sources strongly urge taking the still-generous number with suddenly-surging 3-3 Virginia, back in the

    bowl picture following dominating 35-20 victory over East Carolina. Previously-stagnant Cav offense is now

    grooving behind 6-3 soph QB Verica (50 of 66 last 2 games) and RB Peerman (173 YR vs. Pirates; 186 vs. Tar

    Heels LY), operating behind a cohesive OL. Gambling Tar Heel 2ndary (14 ints. but 60%, 232 ypg passing) likely

    to get burned deep vs. sizzling Cav attack knee deep at WR. Meanwhile, hard-charging Cav defense (18 sacks),

    featuring LB Sintim (7 sacks), will pressure Tar Heel QB Sexton, especially since ground game gains just 3.4 ypc.

    And, with the aforementioned Tate sidelined, UVA 2ndary can do more “doubling” on homerun threat WR Nicks.

    Groh’s squad has covered 14 of last 17 as a dog, and last 8 at home vs. UNC.

    HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):

    NORTHWESTERN (-4) vs. Purdue—Look for Wildcats to bounce back as lame duck Purdue HC Joe Tiller

    sounds as if he’s ready to give underachieving QB Painter the hook....

    MISSISSIPPI STATE (+8½) at Tennessee—MSU has covered 3 of last 4 and owns

    the country’s No. 3 pass defense. Vols a sad 108th in scoring...

    NEW MEXICO (-14½) vs. San Diego State—Aztec defensive line injuries just keep coming;

    QBing medical report not a lot better, and they run for the fewest yards in the nation. Lobo RB Ferguson will have a monster day...

    UTEP (+17½) at Tulsa—

    Look for Miners to trade TDs all the way in this “defense-optional” affair. UTEP QB Vittatoe has 825 YP, 10 TDPs & just 1 int. in last 3 games...

    THE GOLD SHEET (13-15).

    KEY RELEASES

    IOWA by 14 over Wisconsin

    ARKANSAS Plus over Kentucky

    SAN JOSE STATE by 12 over New Mexico State

    LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 15 over Arkansas State

    IOWA 27 - Wisconsin 13—A tale of two QBs, as Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi is

    making solid progress and minimizing mistakes, while Wisconsin’s Allan

    Evridge has regressed to the point he only completed 2 passes against Penn

    State and has probably lost his job to Dustin Sherer (career 11 of 22, 2 ints., no

    TDPs). Hawkeyes own the better defense, and RB Shonn Greene is 6th in the

    nation in rushing (134 ypg). A win here key to Iowa bowl hopes.

    (07-WIS. 17-Iowa 13...W.17-13 W.49/166 I.26/59 I.17/37/0/169 W.12/23/1/138 W.2 I.0)

    (07-WIS. -7' 17-13 06-Wis. -1' 24-21 05-Iowa +2' 20-10...SR: Wisconsin 41-40-2)

    *Arkansas 20 - KENTUCKY 21—Now that Arkansas’ sr. QB C. Dick

    (222 YP, 7 different receivers vs. Auburn) getting hang of new HC Petrino’s

    system and versatile 5-7 RB M. Smith (176 YR vs. Auburn; 5.5 ypc, 20 catches

    TY) attracting extra attention, UK will have trouble pulling away from young but

    maturing Hogs, who have positive vibes following stunning upset on The

    Plains. Wildcat run offense still sputtering (3.2 ypc; only 62 YR vs. USC), and

    standout WR Lyons hurting. CABLE TV-ESPNU

    (07-Ky. 42-ARK. 29...K.23-22 A.51/338 K.36/170 K.21/39/0/265 A.13/28/2/157 K.3 A.1)

    (07-Kentucky +7' 42-29...SR: Kentucky 4-2)

    *San Jose State 36 - NEW MEXICO STATE 24—Hal Mumme’s Air Raid

    took flight last week at Reno, but don’t believe QB Holbrook (409 YP vs. Wolf

    Pack) & Co. can maintain similar altitude vs. quality San Jose “D” (ranked 13th...not

    bad for a WAC team) and lockdown sr. CBs Owens & Francies. Aggie “D” most

    vulnerable platoon on field and could be easy pickins’ for emerging Spartan QB

    Reed, now getting very comfy with sr. WR Richmond (8 catches last week vs. USU).

    (07-SJS 51-Nms 17...S.23-21 S.44/190 N.25/80 N.30/49/3/318 S.19/31/0/317 S.0 N.1)

    (07-SJS -4 51-17 06-Sjs -6 31-21 05-SJS -7' 27-10...SR: San Jose State 13-2)

    *LA.-LAFAYETTE 36 - Arkansas State 21—In key Sun Belt clash, favor

    revenge-minded ULL, which has been a steamrolling machine on ground TY

    (nation-leading 331 ypg; 7.6 ypc). Ragin’ Cagun’s dangerous dual-threat QB

    Desormeaux took LY’s 31-pt. blowout loss personally after generating seasonlow

    8 FDs. ASU just 1-8 SU last 9 away, and host has covered 3 straight in

    series. Only second home game for ULL (5 straight covers!).

    (07-ARK. ST. 52-La.-Laf. 21...A.33-8 A.62/406 L.27/133 A.17/23/0/275 L.7/20/0/137 A.1 L.0)

    (07-ASU -9 52-21 06-ULL -6 28-13 05-ASU -11 39-36...SR: La.-Lafayette 18-17-1)

    KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX

    DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (5-1)...

    ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (4-2)...

    KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (8-9-1)...

    MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (5-6)...

    Virginia Tech (+2½) over @Boston College

    Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

    When Rick Pitino was coaching the Celtics, he delivered an

    infamous quote that got Boston fans all riled up. Pitino

    said: “Larry Bird is not walking through that door, fans.

    Kevin McHale is not walking through that door, and Robert

    Parish is not walking through that door.” And we can

    transfer that to this year’s Boston College Eagles team

    because Matt Ryan is not walking through that door, and

    neither is Gosder Cherilus nor Jamie Silva. Those three

    guys were the backbone of BC football for the past four

    years, but all are now playing on Sunday’s. This year’s

    team hasn’t missed those guys yet, but as they begin the

    meat of their ACC schedule, the Eagles will surely miss

    those three. And it starts in this game with Virginia Tech.

    Boston College has faced a very weak schedule to open

    2008. The Eagles are 4-1 straight up and 3-1 against the

    spread, but those four wins have come against teams with

    a combined 7-19 record. Their loss came against the only

    winning team they’ve faced, Georgia Tech. And it’s of no

    surprise that it was their lowest offensive output of the

    season as they had only 262 yards on a pedestrian 3.4

    yards per play. And we can expect a similar weak

    offensive performance here against the very fast and

    aggressive defense of Virginia Tech. BC’s strength this

    year has been their running game that goes for close to

    200 yards per game on 5 yards per carry. But the sledding

    will be tough here as Tech has been strong at stopping the

    run allowing only 3.7 yards per rush. Their defensive

    weakness is their secondary, but BC will not be able to

    take advantage of that. QB Chris Crane is no Matt Ryan,

    and offensive coordinator Steve Logan, who has never

    seen a passing play he doesn’t like, has run the ball twice

    as much this year compared to ’07. And you can’t blame

    him because the Eagles throwing numbers are awful as

    they’re completing only 56% of their passes for 188 yards

    per game. And those numbers were attained by playing

    weak teams with bad defenses. Don’t expect much

    offense from the Eagles in this game.

    After Virginia Tech lost to East Carolina to open the

    season, they’ve been forgotten about. The Hokies have

    won five straight since including twice winning straight up

    as road underdogs. And when head coach Frank Beamer

    handed the offense over to sophomore quarterback Tyrod

    Taylor, things began to click. Taylor has been more

    accurate in the passing game, but more importantly, his

    mobility takes away potential sacks. The Hokies offensive

    line is great in run blocking but they’ve been bad in pass

    protection allowing 18 sacks thus far. But Taylor’s legs will

    lessen that vulnerability. Tech lost starting running back

    Kenny Lewis to a season ending Achilles injury in their last

    game, but Darren Evans has been outstanding (415 yards

    and 8 TD’s) and he should continue to produce. BC hasn’t

    been favored over Virginia Tech in their last 10 meetings

    (Tech 7-3 straight-up), and with Taylor 9-0 as Tech’s

    starting quarterback, the wrong team is laying points.

    Virginia Tech by 4.

    Georgia Tech (-1) over @Clemson

    Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

    Georgia Tech was horrendous Saturday. 2-3 1-AA entrant

    Gardner-Webb missed a 44 yard field goal at the gun that

    would have sent the into overtime, allowing Tech to hold

    on 10-7. Incredibly, Tech gained only 199 yards of offense

    against this weak opponent. But there’s a reason for it.

    Josh Nesbitt and Jaybo Shaw were both out with injury.

    You know how intricate the offense is that Paul Johnson

    brought with him from Navy, and you know that the

    Midshipmen used to struggle mightily whenever their

    quarterback got hurt. It would take a while for the backup

    to develop the kind of timing necessary to succeed.

    Obviously the same thing happened at Grant Field

    Saturday. And Tech was being told all week how easy a

    win they were going to have, how easy a win it would be,

    how many guys would be getting playing time, how the

    starters would be rested, etc. etc. Gardner-Webb was a

    replacement for Army, who backed out of a game last fall,

    and clearly nobody took them seriously. It happens, and

    we’re willing to forgive.

    The overwhelming favorite to win the ACC, Clemson is

    having a nightmare season. They are 1-3 against 1-A

    opponents this season. Tommy Bowden has benched last

    year’s ACC player of the year Cullen Harper in favor of

    backup quarterback Willie Korn. Are you kidding? When

    your team with the two future NFL RB’s 156-21 by a Wake

    Forest team that entered the game averaging less than 90

    yards per game on the ground, your classy, professional

    quarterback isn’t he problem. The offensive line has been

    a disaster and the team has no continuity or chemistry.

    And it isn’t a circle the wagons type atmosphere; instead it

    is a finger-pointing extravaganza right now. .

    Nobody can ride herd over a team like Johnson after a bad

    week. The heat will be turned up on the Flats this week

    and the Jackets will be primed for a big performance. Both

    top two quarterbacks are back for Tech this week, and

    Nesbitt will start. This line isn’t anywhere close to what we

    thought it would be heading into the season, but there’s a

    reason for it. Clemson is a mess. Fingers are being

    pointed and coaching futures are being pondered. After

    last week’s near-disaster, Tech will be sharp and ready to

    roll. Georgia Tech by 7.

    KO’s Note: Tommy Bowden, along with offensive

    coordinator Rob Spence, has been fired since this was

    written this morning. Line has moved from Clemson –2 to

    Georgia Tech –1. Willie Korn will still be starting, but he

    will be running the option according to Dabo Swinney, the

    new coach. Could Clemson step up with an inspired

    performance? Maybe. Clemson is completely changing

    their offense in midseason, and will be running it against a

    team that faces the option every day in practice. The

    young offensive linemen need to learn new blocking

    schemes. Receivers coach Swinney is a respected

    assistant, but he’s more a recruiter and program guy than

    a game-planning strategist. Any “new day dawning”

    enthusiasm edge for Clemson is offset by the change,

    Tech’s familiarity with the offense, and the distraction of a

    Clemson team that won’t be able to focus on their

    opponent until very late in the week, if at all..

    Duke (+5) over @Miami (FL)

    Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

    The last two in this series have been very nip and

    tuck with Miami winning both by a combined 15

    points. Two years ago at this site Duke threw in the

    end zone from inside the 10 for the win but was

    intercepted on the game’s final play. This Duke

    team returned 51 lettermen this season, and there is

    a bit of a buzz around the program due to the

    excellent hire of David Cutcliffe as head coach.

    They have added some good young players into the

    mix as well, and have already surpassed their win

    total of the last 3 seasons combined! Cutcliffe’s

    teams always execute extremely well on offense,

    and I expect them to be firing on all cylinders

    coming off of a bye week. That extra preparation

    time magnifies the already-prevalent coaching edge

    for the Blue Devils here, and based on what we’ve

    seen so far, I’m really not sure Miami is better than

    Duke right now. Sure, they are more talented and

    deeper, but you can only play 22 at once, and Miami

    is very beat up right now with as many as 6 players

    listed as starters early on possibly out for this one.

    Duke holds the edge at QB with 3rd year starter Thaddeus

    Lewis under center against a very suspect Miami

    secondary. The Canes were allowing 7.5 yards per pass

    before their last two games against the weak-passing

    attacks of Florida St. and Central Florida came to town.

    That number is much more respectable now at 6.1, but I

    think thy will struggle against Lewis and company on the

    road. Randy Shannon has upgraded the talent on both

    sides of the ball, but youth combined with a mostly

    inexperienced coaching staff hurts UM. They look very

    sloppy at times, especially on offense where they have no

    real identity. They have two talented young quarterbacks,

    but Shannon’s insistence on playing both along with

    inconsistent WR play and the inability of offensive

    coordinator Patrick Nix to establish any kind of rhythm has

    hindered any development, and both signal callers are

    lacking confidence right now. The win last week over UCF

    most likely did very little for UM, as their inability to pull

    away probably created more doubt than anything. Doubt

    and pressure can cause young teams to struggle with

    execution and make careless mistakes. That is happening

    a lot right now with the U, and Shannon has not proven

    that he can help a team through that just yet.

    The Canes are now 3-9 to the number the last two seasons

    as chalk, and although I do believe they will improve, they

    are simply not there yet. They don’t know how to win, and

    are very prone to either coming out flat (24-3 to Florida St.

    at home in the 1st half, 27-0 at the half at North Carolina

    last season, both were games they almost won), or letting

    their foot of the gas with a lead. Either of those traits spell

    trouble against a Duke team that will come out sky high for

    this one, and not quit until the final gun. UM by only 1

    Missouri (+7½) over @Texas

    Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

    Texas ought win this game easy, right? The #5

    ranked team in the country beats the #1 team by 10

    points at a neutral site and now comes home to host

    a lower-ranked Missouri team that just choked at

    home as a two touchdown favorite.

    Well let's take a look at some numbers first. Both

    teams have been dominant in the rushing

    department. Texas has outrushed their opponents

    4.6 yards per carry to 2.0. Missouri has outrushed

    their opponents 5.3 y.p.r. to 3.0. Tiny edge for

    Texas. The Horns have a big edge in passing too,

    9.4 yards per attempt to 6.7. Obviously with Chase

    Daniel the Tigers have excelled; they sport a 9.6 to

    7.3 y.p.p. margin. Small edge again for Texas. But

    my database gives a big edge to the Tigers on

    strength of schedule. Yes the Horns just played

    Oklahoma. But after that it’s all Tigers. Texas has

    feasted on the likes of Florida Atlantic, Rice and

    UTEP. Losing to Oklahoma State may have been a

    disappointment for Missouri, but the Cowboys may

    be a Top 10 program and the Tigers have only

    played one truly bad program - Buffalo. My numbers

    say that Missouri's schedule has been about 7-10

    points per game better. Big edge to the dog there.

    Overall my stat model calls for a surprisingly easy

    Tigers win as after the schedule adjustment they

    have the edge both on the ground and in the air.

    Usually in a game like this the tech edge will go to

    the undefeated home team - Texas, especially at a

    reasonable price. But last week's upset win over the

    Sooners gave my database a spin. The Longhorns

    apply to one of the best spots I have; a negative 17-

    58 ATS letdown system whose teams have failed to

    cover by an average of more than 9 points per

    game. The system is 0-2 ATS in 2008 and the losses

    each came by 14 points. By virtue of their perfect 2-

    0 record in the Big 12 Texas is also hit by a negative

    13-38 ATS system that nabbed Texas Tech last

    weekend. The Tigers have plenty of tech on their

    side as well; the best is a 25-1 ATS bounceback

    system that cashed a winner on the late phones last

    weekend with Tulane over UTEP.

    Beating Oklahoma earned the Longhorns a spot on top of

    the new AP poll. That is the first time Texas has led the AP

    during the regular season since 1984, and their jump to

    the top spot from #5 is the largest such jump since 1988.

    The Horns did not really upset Oklahoma; they earned it.

    But being the hunter is a lot easier than being the hunted.

    This week the bullseye gets pinned to the Longhorns. Both

    the stats and the tech say it’s going to be a short stay as

    college football's King of the Hill. Take the points.

    Missouri by 1.

    @Georgia (-15) over Vanderbilt

    Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

    Last week, we detailed the phoniness of Vanderbilt.

    And their magical ride got derailed in Starkville in a

    17-14 loss. But once again, Vandy found

    themselves in a very fortunate situation at the half.

    They led by a score of 7-3, but these halftime

    numbers tell the real story. Mississippi St was

    dominating the Commodores in the stats; 9-4 in first

    downs, 155-42 in yardage, 4.4 – 2.1 in yards per

    play, 107-36 in rushing yards, and 4.7 – 2.1 in yards

    per rush. Despite those numbers, Vanderbilt

    somehow held a 4-point lead. How was this

    possible? After a 16-yard punt by Mississippi St,

    Vandy got the ball on the Bulldogs’ 17-yard line.

    And this happened with 4:32 left in the half. And to

    show you just how inept this Vandy offense is, it

    took them 4 minutes and 13 seconds to move the

    ball 17 yards. They scored a touchdown with 19

    seconds remaining in the half, but to take over 4

    minutes to go 17 yards is simply pathetic.

    The second half saw more of the same. But

    Mississippi St was able to capitalize on their chances

    and went up 17-7 and basically put the game out of

    reach. For the game, Vanderbilt had a grand total

    of 107 yards. The fact that this team ever got to 5-

    0 and ranked # 13 in the country will be one of the

    greatest flukes in college football history. And if

    they couldn’t move the ball on Mississippi St or their

    other four opponents, then they’ll have no chance in

    this game. This is a huge step up in class as

    Georgia was the preseason # 1 and is certainly a

    legitimate Top 10 team. If Georgia doesn’t win this

    game by 30 points or more, then they too would

    qualify as a phony team. But expect the winning

    margin to be huge here.

    Georgia disappointed us last week on the late phones. We

    used them laying 12½ over Tennessee, but came up short

    in their 26-14 win. But the box score tells us that they

    should have won the game by at least 30 points. The

    Bulldogs won yardage 458-209, including winning rushing

    149-1. That’s no misprint either. But two things

    prevented Georgia from winning that game more

    convincingly. One was the fact that Georgia settled for

    three chip-shot field goals (34, 28 and 20 yarders), with

    two of those coming over the first 17 minutes of the game.

    And two Georgia turnovers also prevented a blowout.

    They key interception came on 3rd and goal from the 6-

    yard line when Georgia was up 20-7. Instead of either a

    27-7 or 23-7 lead, the score was 20-14 after Tennessee

    capitalized on QB Matthew Stafford’s mistake. If Georgia

    comes anywhere close to last week’s production, they will

    annihilate Vanderbilt. Well aware of head coach Bobby

    Johnson’s 15-4 spread mark as a road underdog over the

    last five years, but most of that was when Vanderbilt was

    taken lightly. Georgia will not overlook the ‘Dores here

    because they only won by three last year in Nashville and

    lost at home in 2006. Georgia will be focused and things

    will get ugly between the hedges. Georgia by 22.

    @Northern Illinois (-7½) over Toledo

    Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

    A lot of good things happened for Toledo when

    Michigan was inside the Rockets 10-yard line

    Saturday. In the first quarter, with a second and

    goal on the Toledo 5, Michigan’s Steven Threet

    tossed an INT that was returned 100 yards for a 7-

    0. To close the game, Michigan missed a 26-yard

    field goal that would have sent the game to

    overtime after having the ball inside the Toledo 10

    but failing to make any more progress. Toledo

    enjoyed a 3-1 turnover edge and pulled out the win

    despite being outrushed 170-70. Beating Michigan

    has proven to mean very little this fall. It creates a

    false sense of confidence and overrates the team.

    Utah beat Michigan, then failed to cover in a win

    over UNLV. Notre Dame beat Michigan, then got

    beat up by Michigan State the next week. Illinois

    beat Michigan, then lost outright as a double-digit

    favorite to Minnesota. So Toledo not only got lucky,

    but they set up themselves up for a major letdown

    here. This is a team that in the previous two weeks

    lost to Florida International at home as a 19-point

    favorite and then lost to Ball State 31-0, also at

    home.

    And they take on a Northern Illinois team that is

    underrated. The Huskies actually had a shot to beat

    Tennessee two weeks ago, but came up short.

    They also had tough, close losses at good teams

    Minnesota and Western Michigan. The losses keep

    their improvement off of the national radar, and

    others who did realize that the Huskies are pretty

    good may have lost with them this week in a noncovering

    win over Miami-O. Northern Illinois was

    more dominant than the 17-13 margin would

    indicate as they outgained the RedHawks 5.6-4.3

    yards per play. Two things masked the Husky

    superiority, a punt return for a TD by Miami, and the

    fact that Northern Illinois was down to their third

    string quarterback. The top two have been pretty

    good, and they Huskies should be in better shape

    here.

    Northern Illinois is the better team. NIU statistical

    edges are even more prominent than they appear,

    as they have been on the road all season, with the

    Miami game being their first home affair against a 1-

    A opponent all season. Big letdown situation for a

    Toledo team that doesn’t play well on the road.

    Nice spot for Jerry Kill’s squad. Northern Illinois

    by 14.

    Arkansas (+9½) over @Kentucky

    Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

    Obviously it was going to be a transition year at

    Arkansas, with a change from the running attacks

    favored by Houston Nutt to Bobby Petrino. But the

    changeover was even worse than expected, and the

    Hogs had been pretty pathetic. But there’s some

    latent talent in Fayetteville, and the Razorbacks are

    starting to catch on to things. The fact that the Hogs

    hung around with Florida for the first three quarters

    two weeks ago looks pretty good when you look at

    Florida’s 7+ yards per play against formerly

    impenetrable LSU on Saturday night. And while

    Auburn is a mess, the level of dominance exhibited

    by Arkansas in their 25-22 win on the Plains is

    noteworthy. Total yardage was 416-193, rushing

    dominance was 188-56, and first downs were 19-11.

    The Razorbacks are starting to get it.

    Kentucky is a team beset with quarterback

    problems. An early 27-2 win over Louisville made a

    lot of people sit up and take notice, but that game

    was not all that impressive, as UK gained only 210

    yards on 64 plays and the Cardinals offense was

    terrible early. Kentucky barely held on to beat

    MTSU 20-14 and a 17-14 loss to Alabama was not

    really that close against a Tide team letting down

    the week after schooling Georgia. Saturday was

    another close game that saw them lose yardage

    348-214 in a 24-17 loss to South Carolina. This

    team simply doesn’t have a lot of offensive pop.

    Their other two wins were against 1-AA Norfolk

    State and Western Kentucky, a team in their first

    year after being elevated from 1-AA. So they’ve

    struggled against all four 1-A teams they’ve faced,

    and now they’re being asked to cover double digits

    against an Arkansas team that is improving.

    Arkansas’ defense is vulnerable, but can Kentucky

    generate the kind of attack that will take advantage?

    This figures to be a tight, low scoring game in which

    points are hard to come by. Casey Dick has been

    around forever and his experience comes in handy

    with his young skill position teammates. Dick

    completed a 31-yard pass to Joe Adams and a 39-

    yard strike to Greg Childs against Auburn, and both

    of those two are freshmen. There are some young

    players starting to make plays, and while Bobby

    Petrino isn’t a guy you’d want to buy a used car

    from, he can coach at the college level.

    Overmatched in the pros, and unable to relate to

    players he couldn’t dominate, he’s a fine strategist

    at this level, and recieves full compliance from his

    young charges. Improving Hogs hang around.

    Kentucky by only 3.

    THE SPORTS MEMO

    ED CASH (5-1)

    JARED KLEIN ( 3-1)

    MARTY OTTO (0-3)

    ROB VENO (1-3)

    BRENT CROW (2-3)...

    DONNIE BLACK (2-3)

    ERIN RYNNING (2-1).

    FAIRWAY JAY (2-1)

    TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (2-2)

    BRENT CROW

    KANSAS STATE AT COLORADO -2.5

    Recommendation: Colorado

    As a result of a recent tough schedule, the Buffaloes are a very cheap favorite

    this week at home against Kansas State. Colorado has dropped its last three games versus Florida State, Texas and Kansas. They haven’t been able to get their offense on track against those three better than average defenses, but this week they face one of the worst stop units in the nation.

    Kansas State has given up some staggering offensive numbers in its last four games. They allowed 580 yards at Louisville, 539 yards at home to UL-Lafayette, 628 yards at home to Texas Tech, and 544 yards last week at Texas A&M. They are pathetic against the run, giving up 5.95 ypc and have no clue about defending the pass either. Colorado will definitely get its ground game going this week and should have a much better go of it with the football. Kansas State just allowed Texas A&M to exceed its season-

    high for points and yardage (by 142 yards), beating them thanks to a blocked punt return for a TD and other Aggie mistakes. Colorado needs a win and the perfect cure is facing one of the worst defenses in the country.

    DONNIE BLACK

    MIAMI (FL) AT DUKE +5.5

    Recommendation: Duke

    In our column Earners and Burners we wrote about Miami-Florida and the overall decline of the program. The reason for to the lackluster season has been a result of a mediocre passing game. On the year they have thrown for just eight passing touchdowns

    while throwing nine interceptions. Additionally, the Hurricanes average less than 4.3 yards per pass play and do not have big play capabilities. On defense, they only have three interceptions in five games. Only 11 of the 120 FBS teams have fewer interceptions than the Hurricanes. This week Duke comes in off a bye with an extra week to prepare. Even without the favorable situation we rate Duke higher than Miami-

    Florida. Offensively, under the direction of David Cutcliffe, this Blue Devils team is improved. While still not overwhelming on the defensive side of the equation, Duke’s defense is improved. Early on they have shown the ability to stay competitive with a pretty balanced attack but after being shutout in their most recent game against Georgia Tech, Cutcliffe said he was going to start from scratch and do a “pretty detailed study of every little thing.” We would expect a strong showing with the extra time to prepare

    and we’ll back the better team in a favorable situation getting underdog points.

    NORTHCOAST Power Plays 4*'s (50-43-1)...

    CFB:

    4* Duke

    4* Iowa

    4* W. Michigan

    4* Nebraska

    4* USC

    4* n. Illinois

    4* Penn State

    4* Kentucky

    4* Kansas State

    4* South Carolina

    4* Louisville

    4* ULM

    POINTWISE

    POINTWISE 1* (6-8)...

    POINTWISE 2* (1-7)

    College Key Selections

    1--Iowa over Wisconsin 38-17

    1--Penn State over Michigan 40-13

    2--Virginia (+) over North Carolina 33-23

    3--Memphis(+) over East Carolina 31-30

    3--Tulsa over UTEP 58-24

    4--Oregon State over Washington 44-14

    5--Army (+) over Buffalo 24-27

    5--South Florida over Syracuse 41-10

    IOWA 38 - Wisconsin 17 - (12:00) -- No questioning the vast improvement of this

    Hawkeye squad, ranking 21st on "D", with RB Greene at 937 yds (6.2 ypr). A

    sweet 30-pt cover at Indy. Three straight losses for Badgers, who are in off

    worst home loss since '89. Allowing 34 ppg in last 5 Big10 roadsters. Again!

    PENN STATE 40 - Michigan 13 - (4:30 - ESPN) -- We keep writing about the

    balanced attack of the Lions. Try 1,734 RYs & 1,734 PYs to date. Used punt

    return TD & 4 TAs in 48-7 pasting of Wisconsin. Wolves the pits: <300 yds vs

    Toledo, & rank 109th in total "O". Dog is 7-0 ATS in UM gms. That stops here.

    VIRGINIA 33 - North Carolina 23 - (3:30) -- Amazing turnaround for Cavs, who

    had a 684-163 RY deficit in first 3 lined games, but a 403-168 yd edge in last 2,

    (44 & 21 pt covers). Eighteenth-ranked 'Heels' 3 blocked punts & 8 takeaways

    have offset an 850-585 yd deficit vs UConn & NoDame. This is a home series.

    Memphis 31 - EAST CAROLINA 30 - (12:00) -- Pup now 7-0 ATS in ECU games,

    by 126½ pts, with 6 outright upsets. Fast fading Pirates have a 491-yd deficit

    past 2 games, & can't run. Tiger QB Hall has 6 TDs last 2 games, & UM had

    182-yd edge in loss to L'Ville (3 TOs, including winning fumble return). Upset.

    TULSA 58 - Utep 24 - (8:00) -- 'Canes let us down, big time, LW, despite another

    600+ yd showing, & Johnson now at 26/7. Off to best start since 1942, & have

    covered their last 3 HGs by 100 pts. Miner QB Vittatoe has thrown for 10 TDs

    the past 3 wks, & Utep on 3-gm run, after 0-3 start, but Tulsa keeps on ticking.

    Oregon State 44 - WASHINGTON 14 - (7:00) -- Beavs are cooking: 4-0 ATS by

    86 pts, including LW's 416-yd edge over defenseless WashSt, despite 4 picks

    from Moevao. Check Rodgers at 455 RYs last 3 games. Huskies rank 119th

    on "D", allowing 44 ppg last 7, & with no Locker, surely can't match Beaver pts.

    BUFFALO 27 - Army 24 - (3:30) -- Heartbreaker for Bulls LW: OT loss after

    being tied in last 0:05. Some rush "O" to complement Willy. Army last 3 wks:

    280, 291, 341 RYs, with Mooney at 416 last 2 wks. Covered last RG by 51 pts.

    SOUTH FLORIDA 41 - Syracuse 10 - (12:00) -- Rested Bulls came up flat in last

    outing (upset by Pitt), allowing 24 FDs, after ceding only 6, 12, 9, & 13 in 4 of

    their previous 5 games. And Grothe had his worst-ever game: 11-of-22 for just

    129 yds. 'Cuse off pair of covers, losing late to both Pitt & WVa. Not enuff hr.

    (Northcoast/Phil Steele)Powersweep

    NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-6)

    NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (3-2)

    NCAA

    4*- OU

    3*- Nevada

    3*- Ohio St

    2*- FAU

    2*- S.Carolina

    2*- W.Mich

    Underdog

    Missouri

    UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

    Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-126. Over

    the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT

    UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this week's Underdog Play

    of the Week:

    Missouri (+7) over TEXAS

    The last time that Missouri beat Texas in Austin was a 10-0 shutout in 1896! Brown is 4-0 vs MO (1-3

    ATS) with the avg win 40-17. UT is 12-4 SU vs ranked foes and 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS after the RRR. Texas

    is 6-0 SU/ATS after a solid 2H performance LW vs OU. They are playing what Brown is calling “the best

    4 tms in a row we’ve played maybe in Texas history.” QB McCoy is avg 260 ypg (79%) with a 17-3 ratio.

    MO was stunned LW by OSU, never really getting on track offensively & the def all’d 187 rush yds (4.3)

    and wasn’t able to get off the field (8-3 ATS off SU loss). It took 52 drives but QB Daniel finally had a 3

    & out series. He is avg 343 ypg (76%) with a 16-4 ratio, but 3 int were LW. Both off rank in the Top 10

    (MO #7, UT #3), but Texas has the def edge (#6-27) as they are all’g 51 (1.9) rush ypg & are ranked #3

    in our pass eff D (268 ypg, 55%, 10-4 ratio). The Horns are 3-0 SU/ATS in Austin this ssn (exact 52-10

    scores in each), but MO is on an 18-4 SU & 15-5 ATS run as the Tigers will be the toughest opp to visit

    since then-#1 Ohio St in ‘06 (UT lost 24-7, -2). Also new #1 UT has OSU on deck which now looms

    very large in the B12 South race. Doesn't it make sense to use a team off a big loss over a team off a

    huge win. Could we use the Tigers as our Top play? FORECAST: Missouri 38 TEXAS 37

    KEY SELECTIONS

    4* OKLAHOMA over Kansas - Sooners were B12 champs LY but it was the Jayhawks that finished #7

    in the AP ahead of #8 OU. OU is off an emotional loss to rival Texas (11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS gm after) were

    they couldn’t stop the Horns in the 2H (outscored 25-14 all’g 161 rush yds, 4.6). OU has won 21 straight

    B12 HG’s (13-8 ATS, avg score 42-14) and is 11-3-1 as a HF and 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS vs the B12 North.

    QB Bradford avg 342 ypg (72%) with a 23-5 ratio. Mangino was an asst cch under Stoops prior to taking

    over at KU (1999-’01) and is 0-2 SU/ATS vs his former boss (avg loss 30-7, L/gm in ‘05). KU is 12-38

    SU on the road under Mangino, but on an 8-2 ATS streak. KU is just 7-16 ATS as a DD dog. KU beat CU

    LW, but has been somewhat unimpressive in their 1st 2 conf gms (trailed ISU 20-0 at HT & only led CU

    16-14 after 3Q). QB Reesing is avg 330 ypg (72%) with a 15-3 ratio. OU has the off (#1-43) and D edges

    (#9-36). Stoops is 12-5 ATS off a SU loss and will put down the hammer here to get the bad taste out of

    the Sooners mouth (OU outscoring opp’s 110-6 in 1Q). FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 47 Kansas 20

    3* NEVADA over Utah St - UN leads the series 14-4 SU but is just 1-5 ATS (S/’97). UN has won the L/3

    but has dropped 2 of 3 gms in Reno. These two have avg 67 ppg over the L/11 and the visitor has won 7

    of 8 with the only exception being a 42-0 win by UN (-29) in ‘06. USU has won 3 of its L/4 WAC gms but

    has not won 3 or more conf gms in a ssn S/’03. Aggies QB Borel is avg just 112 ypg (53%) with a 6-5 ratio

    but he does lead the tm with 300 yds rushing. USU’s D needs to buckle down as it’s all’g 430 ypg (#105

    in the NCAA). The Aggies have an edge on ST (#97-110) but UN has the adv on off (#16-114). USU is

    3-17 SU & 8-12 ATS in conf AG’s S/’02 while UN is 14-3 ATS as a HF. QB Kapernick is avg 192 ypg (64%)

    with a 9-3 ratio while also rushing for 565 yds (8.6) with 9 TD’s & he’s a WAC POY candidate. Paired w/

    RB Taua (614 yds, 6.3 & 8 TD), UN is #3 in the NCAA in rush off avg 309 ypg which has enabled the Wolf

    Pack to hang onto the ball for an avg of 32:39 (#13 in the NCAA). UN’s run D has been stout all’g just 74

    ypg (#7 in the NCAA), but the Pack needs to shore up its pass D which is all’g 345 ypg (#119) as it caught

    up with them in LW’s loss. FORECAST: NEVADA 48 Utah St 20

    3* Ohio St over MICHIGAN ST - LY OSU dominated with a 422-185 yd edge but MSU got FR & IR TD’s

    in a 24-17 Bucks SU win (-18’). OSU has won their L/2 in E Lansing by an avg of 35-13 (-8 avg). OSU is

    12-3 as an AF & has won 12 straight B10 AG’s. Dantonio is 6-3-1 as a HD and has faced his mentor 3x

    (Tressel 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS). OSU beat Purdue 16-3 win but didn’t score an off TD and were outgained

    298-222 although the Boilers never made it inside the OSU 25. QB Pryor played like a frosh (124 ttl yds)

    and was held without a TD for the 1st time as a str. RB Wells (479, 6.7) was held to 94 yds (1st time under

    100 TY) and clearly was not 100% (foot and flu). OSU’s OL has allowed a conf worst 19 sks. Bucks have

    allowed 172 rush ypg (4. to the 2 pro style off’s they’ve faced (USC & Wisky) as the DL play has been

    inconsistent. MSU is off a 37-20 win over NW in which they were outgained 459-297 but took advantage of

    a +3 TO edge. This is RB Ringer’s (#2 NCAA 1112, 4.5) last shot at his home state school who denied him

    admission (49 yds on 18 carries LY). MSU has only faced 1 mobile QB TY (Indy’s Lewis who was hurt in

    the 1H) and allowed 473 yds vs IU. The off’s are even but OSU’s D (#2-45) & ST’s (#3-77) carry the day in

    a true battle of Tressel ball. In ‘03 we used Wisconsin as our GOY over the Spartans, an easy 56-21 winner.

    Will we go against the overrated Spartans again? FORECAST: Ohio St 24 MICHIGAN ST 14

    2* Florida Atl 30 WKU 20 - 1st meeting. This gm does not count in the Sun Belt standings but FAU is

    off a 30-17 loss to Troy. They are 7-2 SU vs conf foes on the road (WK joins in ‘09) and 3-0 as an AF. QB

    Smith is avg 228 ypg (48.8%) with a 5-9 ratio and WR Gent has 23 rec (15.3). This is WKU’s 8th straight

    gm and they are off a 24-7 loss vs Ball St. They were only outgained 355-352. QB Wolke (4 sts) was

    named the starter for rest of ssn and is avg 112 ypg (54%) with a 5-4 ratio (QB Black status unknown). WR

    Gaebler has 22 rec (10.4). FAU is in desperation mode and at 1-5 expect changes from Schnellenberger.

    FAU dominated Minny 42-39 with a 580-470 yd edge delivering as our 5H Sept GOM Winner LY. Do we

    roll with the Owls again? FORECAST: Florida Atl 30 WKU 20

    2* SOUTH CAROLINA (+) over Lsu - LSU is 15-2-1 SU all-time (series) & SC’s last win was in ‘94. LY LSU

    used a fake FG to score a TD & had a 290-17 yd rush edge in their 28-16 win but we won a 4H LPS on SC

    (+17’) on the road. This is SC’s first ranked opp (6-1-1 ATS vs them) in 5 wks and they have a bye on deck so

    they will give their “A” gm while LSU is off a road trip to Fla and has UGA on deck. LSU has not traveled here

    S/’03 and is 3-11 ATS vs the SEC East incl LW’s blowout loss to FL in which they were outgained 475-321.

    Miles is 4-1-1 ATS off a loss at LSU. DT Jean-Francois DNP LW (CS). Spurrier is 11-2 SU vs LSU but just 3-6-1

    as a HD. LSU excels in night gms (now 19-1 SU after LW’s loss). LSU RB Scott has 570 (6.9) but had a streak

    of 4 consec 100 rush gms stopped LW and also lost a fmbl for the first time TY. QB’s Lee & Hatch alternated

    LW & have comb to avg 220 ypg (57%) with a 7-6 ratio. SC QB Garcia (avg 100 ypg, 66%, 2-1 ratio) came off

    the bench LW to relieve an ineffective Smelley (182 ypg, 60% 9-10 ratio) and led the tm to 10 pts in the 4Q to

    beat KY 24-17 in Lexington. Spurrier is disappointed with the RB’s (Davis is top 354, 4.1). WR McKinley (20,

    10.3) broke SC’s rec record LW, but suffered 2 fmbls. SC has quietly put together 4 consec wins and needs 1

    more to be bowl elig. LSU has the edge on off (#19-63), but their young QB’s struggled on the road LW and

    this wk face an even stronger D (#10, LSU #22). FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 24 (+) Lsu 20

    2* W Michigan over C MICHIGAN - WM is 1-14-1 visiting Mt Pleasant with the win coming in ‘02. LY WM

    was in control early but wrongfully had their key offensive plyr WR Simmons ejected in the 2Q and CM got a

    TD with :12 left to pull out a 34-31 road win (-3). Last time here CM (-7) rolled 31-7. Both tms played Ohio and

    Temple TY going 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS. CM is off a 24-14 win over TU as a 7 pt HF but benefited from +3 TO as

    they were outgained 301-297. WM had 18-10 FD & 288-196 yd edge over TU but only won 7-3 as a 4 pt AF.

    WM had a 503-356 yd edges over Ohio winning 41-20 as a 7 pt HF. CM was outgained 513-431 by OU but

    won 31-28 as a 3’ pt AF as OU fmbl’d what could have been a gm winning TD into the EZ. CM QB LeFevour is

    avg 230 ypg (65%) with a 9-3 ratio and is the top rusher with 304 (3.. He left LW’s gm in the 2Q (ankle, CS).

    WM QB Hiller is avg 292 ypg (68%) with a 23-5 ratio. RB West leads with 633 (5.6). While CM has a slight off

    edge (#41-46), WM has a big D edge (#67-104). This tm has now won 6 in a row & they’ve been a staple at

    this spot for the L/3W and we’ll continue to ride. FORECAST: W Michigan 34 C MICHIGAN 27

    LOGICAL APPROACH

    LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (4-6)

    LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (3-3)

    COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: BUFFALO - 10 over Army - Both teams are 2-4 with Buffalo's wins coming early in the season and Army's coming in their past two games. Buffalo was sloppy last week as they allowed Western Michigan to rally from 14 points down with 5 minutes remaining to force, and ultimately win in, OT. It was Buffalo's first home loss this season after a pair wins over UTEP and Temple, a Temple team that routed Army 35-7 when those teams met at Army to open the season. Army is the most one dimensional team in football, running the ball almost exclusively. In 6 games the Cadets have passed for a TOTAL of just 279 yards - including none in last week's win over Eastern Michigan. Buffalo coach Turner Gill has done a fine job in building up the Buffalo program and he will have his team ready to administer a beating on this foe as they seek to overcome last week's meltdown. Their defense has been solid against the run and they have a far more better balanced offense. Aside from their 44 points outburst against Tulane (in which they were outgained 486-334) Army has not scored more than 17 points in their other 5 games. Buffalo wins 35-14.

    Other Featured College Selections

    Wake Forest - 1 over MARYLAND - Both teams are 2-0 in ACC play and each have defeated Clemson in close games. Wake had the better stats in their win over the Tigers and has played the more demanding schedule. Maryland had a Bye last week but Wake's last game was on Thursday so Maryland's extra few days of prep time is not significant. After losing 7 straight to the Terps Wake has won the last two meetings. Wake continues to be a program on the rise after their second back to back winning seasons under coach Jim Grobe after having just 6 winning seasons in the 29 seasons before his arrival. Fundamentally Wake is the far better defensive team, allowing 120 yards and 6 points per game less than Maryland. And Wake leads the nation averaging 3.8 takeaways per game. The defensive edge is greatest in the passing game where Maryland has been vulnerable to the pass and Wake averages 245 passing ypg. Wake Forest wins 27-17.

    TULSA - 17 ½ over Utep - Tulsa may have been suffering from overconfidence last week as they may have taken SMU lightly before rallying for a 37-31 road win to remain unbeaten. The offense totaled over 600 yards for the fourth time this season. Tulsa leads the nation averaging 597 ypg, more than 200 ypg greater than UTEP. Both teams allow nearly the identical yards on defense. Tulsa has been a bully at home, winning by 42, 28 and 35 points. UTEP has won 3 in a row to sit tied with Tulsa at 3-0 atop Conference USA's West Division. The teams have alternated wins the past 4 seasons with UTEP winning at home last season 48-47. Tulsa has been a program on the rise in recent seasons and seeks a fourth straight Bowl bid. Although both teams have defensive deficiencies, Tulsa has big edges in per play comparisons. Tulsa wins big, 51-24.

    Air Force - 4 ½ over UNLV - Air Force's 4-2 start is signaling that last season's 9-4 campaign under then new coach Troy Calhoun was no fluke. The Force continues to rely on a dominant running game (292 ypg) and faces a very yielding UNLV rush defense (213 ypg, # 110). UNLV started the season 3-1 and showed signs of promise. But they've lost two in a row as their defense yielded 444 rushing yards to arch rival Nevada Reno (620 yards total) and 510 total yards to Colorado State (216 rushing). There is a lack of depth on the Rebels who should be a bit healthier after a Bye week. Air Force has rushed for over 225 yards in every game except against Utah and their relentless overland attack should wear down UNLV. Air Force has won 5 of 6 against UNLV and they bring a defense allowing just 288 ypg (139 less than UNLV). Air Force wins 37-24.

    Mark Lawrence

    College Best Bets 15-3 last 6 Weeks!!

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (6-1)...

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (4-3)...

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (1-4)...

    5* BEST BET MISSOURI

    The Longhorns’ scintillating win over No. 1 Oklahoma last Saturday

    was not only one of the most exciting college football games of

    the 2008 season, it also proved that a program devoid of highprofi

    le superstars could play inspired TEAM football to topple

    an ‘unbeatable’ Sooners squad. And what reward does Bevo reap

    for accomplishing this stunning feat? A trio of gut-busting games

    against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech! “It was one of the

    greatest football games I’ve ever seen,” said Texas coach Mack Brown

    after the heavyweight battle, a victory that could have historical

    signifi cance for the Longhorns. The last time Texas came out of the

    OU game undefeated (2005), it won the Rose Bowl and a National

    title. Well, don’t look for that to happen this year – not through the

    treacherous Big 12 – and don’t be shocked if Bevo takes a stun gun

    to the forehead right here. Our BRILLIANT DISGUISE article (page

    2) is at work in favor of Missouri, a team that sports a fl awless 8-

    0 ATS record on the road versus opponents off consecutive SUATS

    wins. Tiger coach Pinkel is also 6-1 ATS against foes off a SU dog

    win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS if the opponent has a winning

    record. We’re sure the more keen-eyed of you are already shouting,

    “Hey, wait! Missouri was unbeaten and got deep-sixed by Okie State.

    Shouldn’t they be a BUBBLE BURST fade?” No, because the scenario

    only works against FAVORED teams that were 5-0 or greater and

    tasted defeat for the fi rst time. Even though Texas has covered eight

    of the last nine games after Oklahoma, we think Chase Daniel and

    company can win this outright. The new No. 1 goes down

    4* BEST BET

    You know we’re big Steve Spurrier fans, especially in conference play.

    However, today is not the day to test the man’s demeanor. From a

    talent standpoint the cards in this game are stacked heavily in LSU’s

    favor, for sure. The defending National Champs have had blue chip

    recruiting classes throughout the decade while the Gamecocks do their

    best to just keep fellow Carolinians in Columbia. It’s been Spurrier’s

    coaching moxie that has kept this team above water. The task at hand

    today will be to suppress the wanton desires of a defending National

    Champion in a game off its fi rst loss of the season. Other teams have

    tried and according to our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3, almost all have

    failed. To further add fuel to the fi re, LSU is 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 TS in

    games off a loss the last six years. Bengal boss Les Miles himself is 11-0

    SU and 9-1-1 ATS when favored in games off a SU and ATS defeat. To

    add more kerosene to the fl ames, our powerful database tells us to:

    Play On any team in Game Six off its fi rst loss of the season if they are

    on the road versus a .500 or greater opponent that is off a win. That’s

    because teams in this role are 21-5 ATS since 1980. With Spurrier 1-7

    SU and 2-6 ATS in his career as a home dog of 4 or fewer points, there

    will no SOS (Steven Orr Spurrier) signals being sent out of our office this week. LSU in a big bounce back.

    3* BEST BET

    Oklahoma’s upset loss to Texas last week not withstanding, football

    in the state of Oklahoma has been delightful this season. The three

    Football Bowl Subdivision (there’s that dang title, again) teams from

    Merle Haggard’s beloved state – OU, OSU and Tulsa – are 17-1 combined

    in 2008. The task at hand this week for Mike Gundy’s Cowboys will be to

    keep focused on the task at hand, namely the Baylor Bears, and not on

    a date with No. 1 ranked Texas next week. Good luck. For openers, Art

    Briles has done a splendid job in his fi rst year at the helm with the Bears as

    they have already won as many games as they did last season. It’s because

    his troops are +53 net YPG on the year, a dramatic improvement from

    last year’s -113 net YPG fi gure. Aside from the Longhorn look ahead,

    Gundy battles a huge letdown possibility given the fact he is 0-4 ATS in

    games off an underdog win and his team is 0-8-1 SU and 2-7 ATS games

    after meeting Missouri. It’s simply too much of a BRILLIANT DISGUISE for

    any team to overcome. Were going Bear hunting this week.

    UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK

    VIRGINIA over N Carolina by 6

    Virginia coach Al Groh’s realtor must be feeling a bit down right now.

    After the Wahoos got dissected by Duke while opening the season 1-

    3, ‘Groh Must Go’ banners were seen all around Charlottesville and a

    change of address seemed like a certainty for the eight-year Cavalier

    mentor. But when Virginia registered a pair of shocking upsets over

    Maryland and East Carolina, Groh’s ‘For Sale’ signs disappeared from

    his front yard. We don’t know where they went but they may as well

    stay in storage: Virginia is 9-1 ATS kickin’ it with the Heels (8-0 L8

    home) and the Cavs have cashed to the tune of 7-1 ATS as ACC home

    dogs of 5 or more points. Carolina’s gaudy 5-1 record is betrayed by a

    mirror-opposite 1-5 mark ‘In The Stats’ and the Heels have fallen into

    a lifeless 0-5 ATS pit when playing a conference team the week after

    meeting a non-conference adversary. THIS JUST IN: teams who beat

    Notre Dame and come favored in their next games are just 4-16 ATS

    versus a conference foe of < .666. The Cavs have rolled up 66 points in

    their last two games so we’ll stay along for the ride.

    HQREPORT

    HQ REPORT 5* (5-1-1)

    HQ REPORT ATS (5-2)...NEW MEXICO

    HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (2-5)

    HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (4-3)

    5* GEORGIA (-14) over VANDERBILT by 24

    3* NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-7) over Toledo by 17

    3* MIAMI FLORIDA (- 6) over Duke by 13

    3* TROY (- over Florida International by 15

    HQREPORT UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK

    TOP PLAY >>>> NEW MEXICO STATE (+3) over SAN JOSE STATE

    Record to Date 5-2 Last Week LouisianaTech (+8) lost 14-24

    HQREPORT TOTAL RECALL OVER / UNDER

    SINGLE PLAY >>>>NEBRASKA versus IOWA STATE PLAY OVER

    A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems) `

    TOP PLAY >>>>NEW MEXICO (-14) OVER SAN DIEGO STATE

    s

    

    posted by phantom

    Oct. 18 2008 3:42am