FOOTBALL WEEK 7
College Football: Week 7 trends
By Jimmy Sirody
Don Best Handicapper
See Jimmy's Picks
The stakes will be higher than ever Saturday in Dallas when Oklahoma and Texas square off in their annual Red River Rivalry. The winner of this heated battle has gone on to represent the Big 12 South in nine of the last dozen conference title games. But this year a spot atop the polls could also be up for grabs.
The Longhorns didn't put up much of a fight against the Sooners from 2000-04, losing and failing to cash five in a row .But Texas has won and 'covered' in two of the past three series skirmishes. OU got the best of the Horns last year as 12-point favorites, 28-21.
This storied rivalry hasn't had much drama lately with the straight up winner prevailing by double-digits in nine of the past 10 games.
The underdog is 13-7 in the past 20 confrontations. However, OU has 'covered' nine straight as neutral favorites of less than double-digits.
Trends and angles for the entire Week 7 menu appear below.
CLEMSON at WAKE FOREST
Clemson has won 26 of 31 against Wake Forest, yet the Tigers are a dismal 4-12-2 ATS in the past 17 meetings. The Demon Deacons are 12-3 ATS versus Atlantic Division foes. However, they have dropped nine straight spread decisions before facing Maryland and failed at a 1-8-1 clip ATS off a bye.
UAB at HOUSTON
Houston has been a bust as double-digit home favorites, failing in 13 of 17 in that role (0-4 last year). The Cougars are 1-8 as home favorites of more than 14 versus a conference opponent with revenge as well. UAB has cashed six of its last nine conference road openers and 13 of its last 20 as Conference-USA road dogs.
LOUISVILLE at MEMPHIS
Louisville has won five of its last six against Memphis, coming up short in five of the six ATS. The Tigers are 16-9 as home dogs and they have 'covered' five of six as non-conference pups of less than nine. The series short-ender has lost nine of 12 meetings, while cashing 11 of 12.
ECU at VIRGINIA
East Carolina has flopped in 15 of 22 ATS off a bye and in six of seven ATS after Houston. But the Pirates have cashed six straight versus bad teams. Virginia has lost six of eight against Conference-USA teams. The Cavaliers have ducked 'under' in 22 of 32 October outings.
SYRACUSE at WEST VIRGINIA
West Virginia has held the upper hand in this Big East rivalry, cashing six of the past seven. The favorite is 13-2 SU and 12-4 ATS. The Orange is 3-10 as double-digit dogs and 3-12 as short-enders coming off a bye. The Mountaineers are 26-14-1 ATS against conference competition.
IOWA at INDIANA
The favorite has prevailed in eight of the last 11 series battles. Indiana has upset Iowa as double-digit dogs in back-to-back seasons for the first time ever.
MINNESOTA at ILLINOIS
Minnesota has come away with the cash in five of the past seven series shakedowns. However, the favorite has won seven of eight and cashed seven straight. Illinois has stumbled in 12 of its last 16 homecoming games ATS.
MICHIGAN ST at NORTHWESTERN
The underdog has barked in the last six meetings and the home team is 5-2 ATS. Northwestern has bagged nine of the last 13 series tussles ATS. Michigan State has eclipsed the total in 27 of its last 36 conference road games.
EMU at ARMY
Eastern Michigan is 4-19 ATS on the road outside the MAC. The Eagles have 'covered' 10 of 14 when playing their second straight game on the highway. Army is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six homecoming games.
IOWA ST at BAYLOR
Baylor has clicked in six of its last nine as home favorites. However, the Bears are 0-9 SU and 1-7-1 ATS the week after facing Oklahoma. Iowa State is 3-9 ATS in its last dozen conference road tests. The Cyclones are 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS versus Big Twelve South opponents as well.
SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY
South Carolina has won eight straight versus Kentucky (6-2 ATS). In fact Steve Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky (15-0). The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS on the road facing an opponent with revenge. The Wildcats are 4-2 as Southeastern Conference home favorites. The host team is 5-11 in the past 16 tussles. USC has been on the low side in 26 of 38 on the conference road.
WMU at BUFFALO
Western Michigan has won three straight (1-2 ATS) in this short series. The Broncos are 4-17 SU and 7-14 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games. Buffalo has lost seven in a row SU off a bye.
VANDY at MISSISSIPPI ST
The favorite has grabbed the green in the last four meetings and the home team is 3-1 ATS. Mississippi State is 1-7 ATS at home during the first half of the season and 5-9 ATS with rest.
UTAH at WYOMING
Utah has won 11 of 15 versus Wyoming (10-5 ATS). The home team has won six of the past eight and grabbed the green in eight straight meetings. The Cowboys are 22-10 ATS avenging a loss where the opponent scored 35 or more points.
KANSAS ST at TEXAS A&M
Kansas State has lost 13 of its last 16 conference road games (5-11 ATS). Texas A&M is 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in its last dozen Big Twelve home openers.
TEMPLE at CMU
Temple has stumbled in 11 of its last 14 SU against MAC-West foes. Central Michigan has cashed 10 of 11 in October and five of its last six homecoming games.
PURDUE at OHIO ST
The favorite has cashed in eight of the last nine series scuffles. Ohio State has won 10 of 12 versus Purdue (8-3-1 ATS).
TCU at COLORADO ST
Colorado is 10-5 as home dogs with five outright upsets. The Rams have failed to cash six of their last eight homecoming games.
OKLAHOMA ST at MISSOURI
Oklahoma State has been a bust as road dogs (10-24 ATS). The Cowboys are 12-22-1 ATS overall on the conference road. Missouri has won and cashed eight of the past 11 versus Oklahoma State. The three losses were by a combined nine points. The Tigers are 14-7-1 ATS facing teams from the Big Twelve South.
TENNESSEE at GEORGIA
Tennessee has won and 'covered' in its past two visits to Georgia. In fact, the visitor is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five showdowns.
ARIZONA ST at USC
USC has won nine of 10 against Arizona State and 'covered' seven of 10. The Trojans have failed in 10 of their last 12 ATS in October prior to last Saturday. The Sun Devils are 5-12 ATS before a bye and 0-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games.
UCLA at OREGON
Oregon has won and 'covered' five of the past seven versus UCLA. The underdog is 11-4 in the past 15 series scrapes. The Bruins are 6-0 as dogs versus an opponent with revenge. The Ducks are 6-11 ATS before a bye.
TOLEDO at MICHIGAN
Toledo has lost 12 of 16 and come up short in seven of its last 11 ATS against Big Ten foes. The Rockets have also failed to cash their last eight on the road versus a non-conference opponent. In addition, they are 0-9 SU on the road against BCS teams and 3-10 ATS on the highway overall.
NOTRE DAME at NORTH CAROLINA
Notre Dame has 'covered' 17 of 22 on the road in October and four of five when playing the first of back-to-back games away from home. However, the Irish have faltered in five of seven ATS versus ACC teams. North Carolina is 7-19 ATS at home against a non-conference rival.
ARKANSAS at AUBURN
Auburn has won and 'covered' four of five against Arkansas. The home team has come up short ATS in the last three tussles and the favorite is 3-8. The Razorbacks have cashed eight of their last nine as conference pups.
NEW MEXICO ST at NEVADA
Nevada is 10-1 as home favorites of between 3 ½ and 10 points. Conversely, New Mexico State is 3-13 as conference dogs and 9-20 as short-enders overall. The Wolf Pack has outscored the Aggies 136-73 the past three seasons.
MIAMI (O) at NIU
Northern Illinois is 26-16 ATS after a SU loss.
NEW MEXICO at BYU
The visitor has come away with the cheese in the past six series scuffles. New Mexico has lost 32 of 36 to BYU, but two of the four wins have come in the last six years. The Lobos are 20-7 ATS on the road avenging a home loss.
WASHINGTON ST at OREGON ST
Oregon State has 'covered' seven of the past eight meetings. The favorite has cashed at a 12-4 series clip. The Cougars have lost and failed in six of eight when playing back-to-back road games.
ARIZONA at STANFORD
The visiting team is 10-2 in the last dozen clashes. Arizona has dropped eight of 10 ATS after Washington. Stanford is 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back road games. These Pac Ten rivals have averaged 32 points per game in the last four meetings. The Wildcats have ducked 'under' in 16 of 20 as favorites of 3 ½ to 10 points.
BGSU at AKRON
The home team has cashed eight of 12, but is just 1-3 in the last four encounters. Bowling Green is 14-21 ATS on the MAC road. The Falcons have flown 'under' in nine of their last 13 games in October.
OHIO at KENT ST
Kent State has lost 22 of 32 (11-21 ATS) conference games at home. The visitor in this MAC rivalry has won six of eight and cashed seven of eight. The Bobcats are 2-8-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games.
RUTGERS at CINCINNATI
Rutgers is 11-6-1 as road dogs. Cincinnati has 'covered' six of eight against the Scarlet Knights and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven tiffs. The Bearcats have blown 'under' in 20 of 29 at Nippert Stadium.
NEBRASKA at TEXAS TECH
Texas Tech has won 21 of 25 and 'covered' 16 of 25 as conference home favorites. The Red Raiders have also won 14 of 16 (13-3 ATS) homecoming games. Nebraska is 4-10 as road dogs of late. The Huskers have dropped 17 of 25 on the road in conference play (9-15-1 ATS).
COLORADO at KANSAS
Colorado has won 20 of its last 26 against Kansas, but is only 10-11 ATS. The Jayhawks have won nine of 10 SU and ATS versus Big Twelve North foes. The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS on the road off back-to-back SU losses.
PENN STATE at WISCONSIN
The favorite has 'covered five straight and seven of nine and the home team has won and cashed four in a row.
UCF at MIAMI
This is the first meeting between these Sunshine State schools. Central Florida has lost nine of 10 (3-5 ATS) versus ACC schools. Miami has slipped 'under' in 16 of 20 at home.
LSU at FLORIDA
Florida has 'covered' seven of nine meetings. However, the home team is a dismal 4-12 in the last 16 encounters. The 'under' is 2-10 in the last dozen showdowns. The Gators have dipped below the number in 15 of 19 avenging a close loss by seven or less.
UTAH ST at SAN JOSE ST
Utah State has cashed seven of its last nine as road dogs. San Jose State is 2-8 ATS with rest. The last five meetings have been decided by seven points or less. The Spartans have been on the low side in 22 of 25 conference tests.
TULSA at SMU
SMU has won 11 of 15 and cashed 10 of 13 against Tulsa. The home team has won six straight by an average of nine points per game. The Mustangs have dropped seven straight ATS at home.
BOISE ST at SOUTHERN MISS
Boise State is 2-5 ATS against Conference-USA foes since 2003. Southern Mississippi is 12-17-1 ATS versus non-conference opposition.
TULANE at UTEP
Tulane is 7-17 ATS in conference play. UTEP is 6-9 ATS when facing Conference-USA West rivals.
AIR FORCE at SAN DIEGO ST
The favorite is 5-10 in the last 15 confrontations and there have been upsets in five of the last seven games between these Mountain West teams. San Diego State is 10-3 ATS at home versus conference clubs.
IDAHO at FRESNO ST
Fresno State has outscored Idaho 141-44 in the last four mismatches. The Vandals are 10-20-1 as road dogs.
LA TECH at HAWAII
Hawaii has won five of six (4-2 ATS) series meetings. The visiting team is 1-5 ATS in the last six skirmishes.
posted by phantom
29 replies
-
0 likes
College Football Trend Report
TROY (2 - 2) at FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 4) - 10/7/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TROY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLEMSON (3 - 2) at WAKE FOREST (3 - 1) - 10/9/2008, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
WAKE FOREST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after a bye week since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 1-1 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 2-0 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UAB (1 - 5) at HOUSTON (2 - 3) - 10/9/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus UAB over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against UAB over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOUISVILLE (2 - 2) at MEMPHIS (3 - 3) - 10/10/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E CAROLINA (3 - 2) at VIRGINIA (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
E CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
E CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SYRACUSE (1 - 4) at W VIRGINIA (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
SYRACUSE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
W VIRGINIA is 1-1 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IOWA (3 - 3) at INDIANA (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 2-0 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 2-0 straight up against IOWA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (5 - 1) at ILLINOIS (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 47-76 ATS (-36.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MICHIGAN ST (5 - 1) at NORTHWESTERN (5 - 0) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NORTHWESTERN is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
NORTHWESTERN is 1-1 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS (5 - 0) vs. OKLAHOMA (5 - 0) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 2-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E MICHIGAN (2 - 4) at ARMY (1 - 4) - 10/11/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IOWA ST (2 - 3) at BAYLOR (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BAYLOR is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BAYLOR is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S CAROLINA (4 - 2) at KENTUCKY (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
S CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
S CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
W MICHIGAN (5 - 1) at BUFFALO (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VANDERBILT (5 - 0) at MISSISSIPPI ST (1 - 4) - 10/11/2008, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTAH (6 - 0) at WYOMING (2 - 4) - 10/11/2008, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WYOMING is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
WYOMING is 1-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS ST (3 - 2) at TEXAS A&M (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEMPLE (2 - 4) at C MICHIGAN (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEMPLE is 1-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PURDUE (2 - 3) at OHIO ST (5 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 1-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TCU (5 - 1) at COLORADO ST (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
TCU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OKLAHOMA ST (5 - 0) at MISSOURI (5 - 0) - 10/11/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TENNESSEE (2 - 3) at GEORGIA (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA ST (2 - 3) at USC (3 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
USC is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UCLA (2 - 3) at OREGON (4 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 1-0 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
OREGON is 1-1 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOLEDO (1 - 4) at MICHIGAN (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTRE DAME (4 - 1) at N CAROLINA (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NOTRE DAME is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
NOTRE DAME is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
N CAROLINA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS (2 - 3) at AUBURN (4 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
AUBURN is 1-1 against the spread versus ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons
AUBURN is 1-1 straight up against ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW MEXICO ST (2 - 2) at NEVADA (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEVADA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEVADA is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI OHIO (1 - 4) at N ILLINOIS (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW MEXICO (3 - 3) at BYU (5 - 0) - 10/11/2008, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON ST (1 - 5) at OREGON ST (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OREGON ST is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
OREGON ST is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
OREGON ST is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA (4 - 1) at STANFORD (3 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 52-76 ATS (-31.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ARIZONA is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOWLING GREEN (2 - 3) at AKRON (3 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 1-1 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OHIO U (1 - 5) at KENT ST (1 - 5) - 10/11/2008, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OHIO U is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
KENT ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
KENT ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
KENT ST is 1-1 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RUTGERS (1 - 4) at CINCINNATI (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEBRASKA (3 - 2) at TEXAS TECH (5 - 0) - 10/11/2008, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 74-48 ATS (+21.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 95-67 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 44-23 ATS (+18.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO (3 - 2) at KANSAS (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
COLORADO is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
COLORADO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 47-75 ATS (-35.5 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PENN ST (6 - 0) at WISCONSIN (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-1 against the spread versus PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-1 straight up against PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UCF (2 - 3) at MIAMI (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 3:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LSU (4 - 0) at FLORIDA (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 1-1 straight up against LSU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTAH ST (1 - 4) at SAN JOSE ST (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TULSA (5 - 0) at SMU (1 - 5) - 10/11/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 2-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
SMU is 1-1 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOISE ST (4 - 0) at SOUTHERN MISS (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN MISS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
BOISE ST is 73-44 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 49-20 ATS (+27.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 44-18 ATS (+24.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 73-44 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-0 straight up against SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TULANE (2 - 3) at UTEP (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
TULANE is 52-75 ATS (-30.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
UTEP is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTEP is 1-1 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
UTEP is 1-1 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIR FORCE (3 - 2) at SAN DIEGO ST (1 - 4) - 10/11/2008, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IDAHO (1 - 5) at FRESNO ST (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
IDAHO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
IDAHO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
FRESNO ST is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOUISIANA TECH (2 - 2) at HAWAII (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 11:59 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
LOUISIANA TECH is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAWAII is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
HAWAII is 2-0 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALL ST (6 - 0) at W KENTUCKY (2 - 4) - 10/11/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 1-0 straight up against W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA MONROE (1 - 4) at ARKANSAS ST (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 2-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-1 straight up against LA MONROE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIDDLE TENN ST (2 - 3) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-1 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA LAFAYETTE (2 - 3) at NORTH TEXAS (0 - 5) - 10/11/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NORTH TEXAS is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NORTH TEXAS is 2-0 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
NORTH TEXAS is 1-1 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2008 2:51pm -
0 likes
*** FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER PLAYS AND RECORD TRACKING REPORT ***
(Top 2 Star Ratings Plays and Special Plays)
** NCAA NEWSLETTERS **
HOT
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (4-1-1)...
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (4-1)...
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (4-1)...
HQ REPORT 5* (4-1-1)...
HQ REPORT ATS (4-2)...
HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (4-2)...
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (5-1)...
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (3-1)...
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP EARLY (3-1)...
COLD
LOGICAL APPROACH MONEYLINE (2-6)...
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (0-4)...
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-5)...
POINTWISE 2* (1-6)...
THE REST
BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (1-3)...
CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 2* (1-1)...
CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 3* (0-1)...
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (10-8-1)...
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (2-2)...
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (3-2)...
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (2-0)...
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...
HQ REPORT 4* (0-0)...
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (2-4)...
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (8-6-1)...
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (3-4)...
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (3-2)...
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (3-3)...
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (0-2)...
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (4-5)...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (2-0)...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (1-0)...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 6* (1-0)...
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (47-32)...
POINTWISE 1* (6-6)...
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (8-10)...
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (10-13-1)...
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (9-7-1)...
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (2-2)...
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (12-12-1)...
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...
THE GOLD SHEET (10-14)...
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (16-10)...
THE RED SHEET 88* (7-10-1)...
THE RED SHEET 89* (7-4-1)...
THE RED SHEET 90* (1-0)...
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...
VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (1-2)...
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (8-4)...
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (10-16)...
** NFL NEWSLETTERS **
HOT
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (8-4)...
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (3-0)...
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (3-0)...
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (4-1)...
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (3-0-2)...
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (8-4-1)...
COLD
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (1-3)...
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (1-3)...
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (2-5)...
LOGICAL APPROACH TOTALS (0-8)...
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (2-4-1)...
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (2-6)...
THE REST
BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (0-0)...
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (3-2)...
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (0-0)
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (1-0)...
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (0-0)...
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (1-1)...
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (1-1)...
LOGICAL APPROACH MONEYLINE (3-4-1)...
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (3-4)...
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (4-3)...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (1-0-1)...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (2-0)...
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (4-3-1)...
POINTWISE 1* (0-0)...
POINTWISE 2* (2-1)...
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (1-0)...
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (7-7-1)...
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (8-5-1)...
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (1-0)...
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (11-13-1)...
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (0-1)...
THE GOLD SHEET (7-8)...
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (2-2-1)...
THE RED SHEET 88* (2-2)...
THE RED SHEET 89* (1-0)...
THE RED SHEET 90* (0-0)...
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (2-0)...
VEGAS EXPERTS THE EDGE 3* (2-1)...
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2008 6:49pm -
0 likes
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
4* Miami 37-10
3* West Va. 45-10
3* N.D. 24-20
2* Bowling Green 30-20
2* Florida 30-17
2* Western Michigan 27-21
Underdog Northwestern +3 27-23
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-125.
Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT
UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this week's
Underdog Play of the Week:
The Spartans are 9-24 SU on the B10 road. In their last matchup in Evanston, MSU rallied from a
38-3 3Q deficit for the NCAA’s largest-ever comeback. The road tm has won 3 in a row SU and is
7-0 ATS! LY we used NW (+16) as the Big Dog play and they pulled the upset in OT 48-41 with QB
Bacher throwing for 520 yds (NW 611-481 yd edge). NW is fresh off a bye and is off to its 1st 5-0 start
S/’62, the same yr the 1st Walmart store opened in Bentonville, AR. A win here would clinch bowl
elig earlier than at any time in the program’s history (10/19/96). QB Bacher (208 ypg, 53%, 7-5 ratio)
& RB Sutton (464, 5.3) needed the wk off after being banged up. The Cats start can be credited to
their D which leads the conf with 17 sks (just 18 in ‘07) and allows 112 rush yds (3.4). MSU survived
a 4Q comeback by Iowa by stopping RB Greene on 4th & 1 at the MSU 21 with 2:16 left. The Hawks
became the 1st team to contain Ringer (#2 NCAA with 988, 4.7) who was held to 91 yds (3.6). By
game’s end MSU was playing without its entire starting secondary. The fresh Cats take advantage of
a tired Spartans team off a physical gm. FORECAST: NORTHWESTERN 27 Michigan St 23
KEY SELECTIONS
4* MIAMI, FL over Ucf - 1st meeting and UCF is 0-4 visiting in-state schools losing by 36 ppg S/‘96.
Normally UM would not be up for a lower rung in-state school but UCF is the defending CUSA champ
and Miami is 2-3 and wants to prove there’s still a huge divide between the programs to in-state recruits.
They are off a misleading loss to rival Fla St with an ACC game on deck. LW for UCF QB Greco took over
for true Fr Calabrese in the 2H and engineered 3 scoring drives to defeat SMU 31-17. On the season
he is avg 107 ypg (53%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB Weaver, who had his 1st 100 yd rush gm LW, has 328 yds
(3.7) on the season. UM is coming off a disappointing conf loss in a game they trailed 31-10 3Q and
got to within 34-32 w/8:00 left in a game in which true Fr Benjamin (PS#54) had 274 all-purp yds. On
the ssn QB Marve is avg 135 ypg (57%) with a 5-5 ratio. RB Cooper, who has taken over for the inj’d
James and has 322 rush yds (5.4). Both of Miami’s wins are vs non-conf foes TY and the Canes need
a feel-good win to prove their still relevant to in-state players after losing to UF and FSU.
FORECAST: MIAMI, FL 37 Ucf 10
3*WEST VIRGINIA over Syracuse - This is played for the Schwartzwalder Trophy. LY WV won their
6th (5-1 ATS) in a row SU and their 55 pts were the most Syr ever all’d at home. QB White sat out the
2H with inj. The fav is 15-1 ATS! The only non-cover was last time here in ‘06 when WV won 41-17
(-25’) and WV had a 562-227 yd edge. Syr is 4-2 ATS vs ranked tms on the road and pulled a stunner
LY upsetting #18 Louisville (+37). Syr is off a bye after their 34-24 loss to Pitt, a gm they led 24-16 in
the 4Q. The Orange are all’g 157 ypg rush (4.7) and now face a potent rush attack avg 206 ypg (5.1).
LW WV held on to defeat Rutgers 24-17. QB White left in the 3Q (head, CS). If WV has to go without
White they are in capable hands with backup Jarrett “Big†Brown and RB Devine (454 yds, 5.7). WV
has huge edges on off (#33-98) and def (#33-116) and the home edge and will roll into the bye at 4-2
before facing Auburn. FORECAST: WEST VIRGINIA 45 Syracuse 10
3* Notre Dame over NORTH CAROLINA - While ND is 16-1 SU in the series, their last trip here was
in 1975 and in their only recent meeting a 3-9 NCar team covered (+24’) 26-45 in South Bend in 2006 vs
Sugar Bowl bound ND (ND ended gm on NC’s 20). This matches our #1 vs #2 Most Improved tms. NC (4-1)
is off to its best start S/’97. QB Sexton, starting for the inj’d Yates (ankle), is avg 180 ypg (57%) with a 3-1
ratio. WR Nicks has 24 rec (17.2) and Tate is avg 195 all-purp ypg. NC’s D is #1 in NCAA with 12 int. QB
Clausen, who threw for 347 yds LW vs Stanford giving us a 3H LPS Winner, is avg 250 ypg (61%) with a
12-6 ratio, however, the 6 int were in the 1st 3 gms and he has 0 since. ND’s WR Tate has 23 rec (17.3)
and Floyd has 21 (15.9). ND has struggled running the ball other than vs Purdue and prior to LW only had
1 sk (5 sks vs Stanford). These tms matchup pretty evenly on both sides of the ball (ND off #43-45, NC
def #43-51). Rare line value with ND as both are off misleading finals (see News & Notes) and the Irish
prove why they are our Most Improved. FORECAST: Notre Dame 24 NORTH CAROLINA 20
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* Bowling Green over AKRON - LY BG had a ssn high 517 yds off, incl 295 in the 1H vs Akron.
Akron RB Kennedy had a career high 178 yds (7.4) & 2 TD vs BG in ‘06. Akron is 0-11 SU the week
after playing rival Kent. BG is 1-6 as an AF and Akron is 5-1 as a HD. BG is coming off a shocking loss
as they allowed EM to score a TD with :36 left losing 24-21 as a 20’ pt HF. The Falcons were outgained
410-391 and outFD’d 23-18. Akron is coming off a shocking win thanks to a Kent St flubbed punt that
set them up for a TD with less than 5:00 left. Akron won 30-27 as a 3’ AF as Kent St missed a short
FG in the 2nd OT. The Zips were outFD’d 25-15 and outgained 413-301. This will be the Zips final HC
in the Rubber Bowl. BG has the off (#68-92) and D (#78-96) edges. BG QB Sheehan is avg 242 ypg
(66%) with a 6-3 ratio. RB Bullock leads the tm with 237 yds (4.2). Akron QB Jacquemain is avg 243
ypg (59%) with a 10-9 ratio. RB Kennedy leads the Zips with 291 yds (4.1). Akron’s weakness is run
D where they are all’g 222 ypg (4.6) so it’s time for the Falcons to work out their offensive kinks.
FORECAST: Bowling Green 30 AKRON 20
2* FLORIDA over Lsu - LY the Gators led 17-7 at HT and 24-14 early 4Q but lost 28-24 (+7) in Death
Valley as LSU went 5/5 on 4th down tries. LSU is 3-1 SU in this series but the 3 wins are by 11 pts comb.
The HT is 4-12 ATS and UF is 7-2 ATS in this series. LSU is 3-10 ATS vs SEC East tms, but UF has
struggled vs West tms also (4-8-1 ATS) incl an outright upset loss to Ole Miss a few wks ago. The Gators
are 15-5 SU & 13-6 ATS the week prior to a bye. Tebow has avg just 205 ypg pass (62%) with an 8-1 ratio
and only 157 rush (2.6) a far cry from his ‘07 Heisman ssn. LSU LB Darry Beckwith is exp to return (out
L/2). UF is banged up on the OL with their top 2 LG’s missing the last gm (CS). Meyer has never lost 2 in
a row SU at home. UF has slight edges on off (#8-21), def (#4-14) and ST’s (#1-8). LSU QB Lee makes
his 1st road start in The Swamp and has avg 161 ypg (58%) with a 6-3 ratio. RB Scott has 535 rush (7.5)
and leads the SEC in rush ypg (134). UF is 7-2 as a HF & LSU hasn’t been an AD since their 23-10 loss
(+1) to UF in the Swamp in ‘06. These 2 teams have captured the L/2 BCS Championships, but UF has
the all-important home edge and the superior QB in this one. FORECAST: FLORIDA 30 Lsu 17
2* W Michigan over BUFFALO - Last met in ‘05 as WM QB Hiller made his debut (WM -10’, 31-
21). WM is 3-0 SU vs Buff (all by 10+ pts). HC Cubit is 2-5-1 as an AF and Gill is 3-1 as a MAC HD.
Buff is fresh off a bye (but is 0-7 off bye) while WM is playing a 7th str wk and has rival CM on deck
(0-4 ATS gm prior to CM). We won a 3H Small Coll Play on WM (-7) as they beat Ohio 41-20, with a
503-356 yd edge. UB just missed knocking off CM as the gm winning FG (lost 27-25, +6’) went off the
upright as time expired. WM has the off (#46-65) and D (#66-76) edges but the Bulls have played the
tougher schedule (#11-117). Both tms beat Temple TY (UB 30-28, -6, TU QB DiMichele did play, WM
7-3, -4, DiMichele DNP). WM is led by QB Hiller, who avg 284 ypg (69%) with a 19-4 ratio. RB West
leads with 574 (5.6). UB is led by QB Willy who avg 260 ypg (64%) with a 12-3 ratio and RB Starks
has 390 (4.
despite missing time (inj). WM’s dominance on both sides of the ball have not shown upon the scoreboard yet but expect different results here. FORECAST: W Michigan 27 BUFFALO 21
OTHER GAMES
Tuesday, October 7th Troy at FLORIDA ATLANTIC - FAU snapped a 4 gm losing streak to Troy LY
with their 38-32 road win (+16) stealing the SBC Title in Troy’s FHG. FAU is 10-4 ATS in conf play but is
off a devastating last second loss to Mid Tenn. This is Troy’s 3rd straight road gm (in 4 wks) and they were
outgained 612-416 LW vs Okla St but beat that same Blue Raiders squad 31-17 in the opener.
Thursday, October 9th Clemson at WAKE FOREST - LY CU’s Harper threw for 3 TD & ran for a 4th
in a 44-10 win (scored on 1st 4 poss). Prior to ‘07 WF HC Grobe was 4-0-2 ATS vs Clemson with his
biggest SU loss by 10 and two outright upsets. Clem’s L/3 trips here have been a comeback win and
SU losses by 28 and 4. CU was the preseason favorite to win the ACC but are 1-1 in conf play so they
need this win here to stay in the race while WF got their conf win at FSU, a team CU will also face on
the road. This could be the ACC Atlantic Title game
Uab at HOUSTON - These two have avg 60 ppg in their previous matchups. LY UH jumped out to a
35-10 HT lead in ‘07 outgaining an undermanned UAB squad 540-224 in a 49-10 win (-13’) as a 4H Key
Selection winner. UAB journeys to Houston after dropping a heartbreaker vs Memphis last Thur and is
now playing for a 7th str wk riding a 6-11-1 ATS record vs the CUSA. After a big win at #23 EC a few wks
back, UH returns from a bye where they have struggled as a DD HF going just 4-13 ATS (0-4 LY).
Friday, October 10th Louisville at MEMPHIS - This is an old CUSA rivalry with UL 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS
(last met in ‘04, UL -13’ won on the road, 56-49). The dog is 11-1 ATS. UL HC Kragthorpe (at Tulsa) is
2-0 ATS vs Mem HC West. This is a conf sandwich game for Memphis with EC on deck while UL returns
home vs Mid Tenn. Louisville is off a bye while Memphis is off a Thurs night win over rival UAB.
Saturday Games
East Carolina 27 VIRGINIA 17 - In their only recent meeting in ‘06, EC was -6’ at
home and won 31-21. The dog is 15-5 ATS when EC is on the road. EC is off a bye but has a home conf
game on deck. The Cavs were outscored 128-20 in their previous 3 BCS gms but finally clicked LW and
shutout MD 31-0. QB Vercia, who took over for Lalich (kicked off tm), is avg 145 ypg (62%) with a 2-5
ratio. WR Ogletree has 27 rec (11.
. The Pirates have the edge on off (#77-96) but they matchup almostevenly on D (UVA #60-65). QB Pinkney avg 203 ypg (68%) with a 6-3 ratio. WR Harris has 33 rec (10.5).
EC is 9-3 off a SU loss under Holtz but now faces the Cavs off an upset win by 31 pts (2 TD dog).
Iowa 27 INDIANA 20 - LY in Iowa City, Hawks QB Christensen threw for 308 yd but Indy had 9 sks
and got their 2nd str upset of Iowa with their biggest margin (38-20) S/’45. Hoosier QB Lewis has avg’d
305 ttl ypg while accounting for 7 TD’s in 2 career winning sts vs Iowa. Ferentz is 3-5 SU vs Indy and
is 0-7 as an AF with 5 OUTRIGHT losses. Hawks have lost 3 str by a comb ttl of 9 pts incl LW’s 16-13
defeat at MSU in which RB Greene (NCAA’s #6 rusher w/822, 6.4) was SOD on 4th & 1 at the MSU
21 with 2:16 left. The Hawks rallied from a 16-3 deficit created in part by QB Stanzi’s 3 1H TO’s (5 of
tm’s 8 in L/2 gms) but couldn’t finish for their 8th str loss by 3 or less. Indy also lost their 3rd in a row in
an unexpected 16-7 D struggle vs Minny in which they were outFD’d 22-10. Both QB’s played but the
tm’s lone TD came on a 77 yd pass from Chappell to Thigpen (3 TD’s of 75+ in L/2). Iowa has all of the
edges especially on D (#19-69) and this is a must-win for both tms’ post season hopes.
ILLINOIS 34 Minnesota 20 - UM HC Brewster is an IL alum who campaigned to get the Illini job before
Zook. The Gophers are 6-2 SU (series) but lost LY 44-17 in Brewster’s 1st test vs Zook as the Illini ran
for a ssn high 448 yd. IL is 7-2 SU at home (series) but lost the last time here in ‘03, 36-10 (+15’). The
Illini rallied from a 14-3 deficit and scored the most pts in their history over Mich in a 45-20 win in the
Big House. B10 ttl offense leader QB Williams (243 ypg, 57%, 11-6 ratio, 404 rush yds) had the most
yds in Michigan Stadium history (431). The D settled down and tied their ssn high with 4 sks and all’d
the Wolves just 69 rush yds (2.0). After being 1-11 in ‘07, UM is 1 win away from bowl eligibility after
their 16-7 win over Indy in which they held the potent Hoosiers to just 10 FD, 293 yds and 1 offensive
TD. QB Weber (238 ypg, 68%, 8-2 ratio) and WR Decker (#3 NCAA with 50 rec, 13.9) are the league’s
most prolific pitch & catch combo. UM is #2 in the NCAA in TO margin at +10. The Gophers will have
to wait at least one more wk to start making post season plans.
OKLAHOMA 34 Texas 27 - Red River Rivalry (103rd) and UT has covered 3 str (2-1 SU) but has been
outgained L/2Y benefitting from +7 TO (OU 333-232 yd edge in ‘06). LY was the 1st RRR gm S/’97 that
was not decided by DD but surprisingly the dog is 13-7 ATS. #1 OU (4-0 ATS) cont’d its dominance
rolling BU LW 49-17 and has outgained foes by 284 ypg. QB Bradford avg 333 ypg (73%) with an 18-3
ratio. #5 Texas took care of CU on the road LW 38-14 is 5-0 ATS avg 47 ppg TY. QB McCoy avg 256
ypg (79%) with a 16-3 ratio. OU is on a 25-4 SU & 19-8-1 ATS run but struggled vs TCU (comparable
def to UT) rushing for just 25 yds on 36 carries and the Frogs penetrated OU terr 8 times and came
away with NO pts (2 punt, 3 SOD & 3 TO)! Both tms rank in the top 10 in off/def and the last time they
both came in undefeated was in ‘04 (OU won 12-0, last cover). This will be the 4th time that Stoops and
Brown bring Top 5 ranked squads into Dallas and the Sooners are 3-0 SU & ATS.
ARMY 23 E Michigan 22 - Last met in ‘92, a 57-17 Army win. Both tms are off outright wins as DD AD’s.
EM scored with :36 left beating BG 24-21 as a 20’ pt dog. Army’s option has finally started to click as they
avg 6.6 ypc and seemingly dominated Tulane 44-13 as a 19’ pt dog. However Army was outFD’d 25-13 and
outgained 486-334 D scored 2 TD incl an 81 yd FR as they were +4 TO. Army is avg 222 ypg (4.1) rush
while EM is all’g 184 ypg rush (4.9 ypc). EM is in a MAC sandwich, on 3rd AG in 4 wks and is just 3-10
ATS in non-conf AG’s. Army is 9-5 SU on HC and is trying to break a 5 gm home losing streak after ending
the nation’s longest losing streak (10 gm) LW. EM is just 1-4 ATS TY while Army has covered 2 str. Army,
after being led in rushing by QB Bowden the L/2W, was led by FB Mooney with 187 (9.
and he now leadswith 416 (5.0). EM QB Schmitt avg 133 ypg (61%) with a 2-2 ratio. Take the points.
BAYLOR 31 Iowa St 24 - ISU is 3-14 SU & 5-12 ATS vs the B12 South. Cyclones have dropped 9 str
B12 AG’s w/the avg loss by 20 ppg. In their L/gm in ‘05, BU won its 1st ever B12 AG beating ISU 23-13
(0-37 coming in). BU is 0-9 SU & 1-7-1 ATS after facing OU but 7-3 as a HF. The Bears ran into #1 OU
LW and as usual lost 49-17. QB Griffin avg 166 ypg (56%) with a 7-0 ratio and leads with 436 rush yd
(5.7) accounting for 64% of the BU off. ISU nearly turned in the upset over KU but lost 35-33 LW. Kan
needed to rally from a 20 pt deficit to escape with the win. QB Arnaud seems to have the #1 spot avg
182 ypg (63%) with a 7-3 ratio. Both tms have struggled on the road (ISU 10-45 SU) but have won at
each others stadium in ‘04 & ‘05 (BU 2-0 ATS). Both tms are 2-3 and need a win to keep a bowl berth
alive, but BU has the off edge (#48-75) and seems to be ahead in Briles schemes at this point, compared
to what Chizik has done with the Cyclones.
South Carolina 20 KENTUCKY 13 - SC DE Norwood tied an NCAA record with 2 FR TD’s in LY’s
38-21 (-4) SC win in a Thurs PPH Nite win in which #11 SC had the ball at the UK2 at the end. It was
SC’s first win over a Top 10 tm (UK #8) S/’88. SC has won 8 in a row SU and Spurrier is 15-0 vs UK.
The visitor is 11-5 ATS while UK is 8-3 as a HD. UK is off a close loss to #2 Bama in which a fmbl by
QB Hartline (ret’d by Bama for a TD) was the difference. Hartline has avg 175 ypg (56%) with a 5-2
ratio. SC seems to be getting back on track with 3 str wins to put themselves back in bowl contention.
Spurrier stuck with QB Smelley (195 ypg, 63%, 9-7 ratio) LW and he threw for a career high 327 yds &
3 TD in their win over Miss. This is a battle of Top 20 D’s with SC having a slight edge (#11-18). UK’s D
all’d 282 rush yd (5.
to the Tide LW, so SC RB Davis (327, 4.5) could be in for a big day. The loser ofthis one risks being shutout of the bowls.
MISSISSIPPI ST 17 Vanderbilt 10 - VU has dropped 5 str in Starkville by an avg of 27 ppg, but did win
the last meeting 31-13 (-13) in ‘04 in Nashville. The fav has covered 4 in a row. VU has lost SU the L/2
times they have been an SEC AF (‘06, -1’ at Miss 10-17 and ‘04, -3 at KY 13-14). MSU is 3-6 as a HD
& 5-9 ATS off a bye. VU is in a letdown sit coming off their historic upset of #13 Aub LW with GameDay
broadcasting from their campus and VU is off to its best start S/’43. QB Nickson (59 pass ypg, 55%,
3-1 ratio, 310 rush, 5.1) aggravated a shld’r inj LW (CS) and bkup Adams threw for 153 yds & 2 TD. VU
leads the NCAA in TO margin and held Aub to 4 yd rush in the 2H LW. Despite their 5-0 start, VU is
being outgained by 54 ypg on the yr. MSU RB Dixon (groin inj, 320, 4.5) should be healthier after the
bye. QB Lee made his 1st start in the tm’s respectable loss to LSU and has avg 117 ypg (66%) with a
1-0 ratio while Carroll has avg 132 ypg (54%) with a 3-6 ratio. VU has slight edges on off (#90-99) & D
(#34-39), but a large edge on ST’s (#34-80). VU could clinch its first bowl S/’82 with a win here.
Utah 35 WYOMING 7 - LY WY HC Glenn guaranteed a win and when UT onside kicked while up by 43,
he flipped off Whittingham. UT had a 506-122 yd edge and is 7-2 SU and 10-5 ATS (series). The HT
has covered SEVEN str! WY is 6-3 (0-1 TY) as a HD. LW UT rallied for 11 pts in 1:29 for a 31-28 win
over Oreg St despite being outFD’d 20-18 and outgained 405-337. QB Johnson avg 222 ypg (67%)
with a 10-6 ratio. RB Asiata has 373 yd (5.3) while Mack has 363 (4.7) and three WR’s have more than
20 rec’s. During the wk, WY gave the starting job to Sween with “leeway†in the TO dept. Sween tossed
an int that was ret’d for a TD :15 in & on the yr WY has a -14 TO margin (T-last NCAA) and is 0-5 ATS.
Sween has thrown for 155 yd (54%) with an 0-2 ratio in L/2. RB Moore leads w/582 rush yd (5.3) & two
WR’s tie for the lead with 13 rec (in SIX GMS!). UT is playing to impress poll voters while WY is playing
for their HC’s job as the rest of us wonder who his successor.
TEXAS A&M 34 Kansas St 30 - Last meeting, in ‘05, A&M led 23-8 after 3Q’s, before KSU’s 4Q comeback
fell short by 2. KSU is 3-13 SU (4-9 ATS) on the B12 road being outscored by 11 ppg. A&M is 9-3 SU and
8-4 ATS in their B12 home opener and the HT is 4-1 ATS. A&M lost 56-28 to OkSt but outgained them
by 1 yd and fell to 1-4 ATS. QB’s McGee & Johnson are both not 100% but comb for 239 ypg (59%) with
a 10-5 ratio. KSU’s struggles cont’d LW vs TT as they have given up 37+ pts in 3 str and a rush D that
has been non-existent (all’g 258 ypg, 5.7). QB Freeman is avg 255 ypg (63%) with a 12-2 ratio. K-St is
on a 2-9 SU & 1-7 ATS run but does have a huge ST edge (#2-100) along with the better off (#27-72) &
D (#87-94). We’re well aware that A&M is 1-2 SU TY at home dropping 5 of the L/6 ATS (0-3 ATS TY) but
LW’s offensive output shows the progress the new off is making.
C MICHIGAN 30 Temple 20 - Only met in ‘06 with CM having a 499-309 yd edge on the road (-20) 42-26.
CM is 11-2 ATS at home and TU is on their 5th RG in 7 wks while CM is off a bye. TU beat Miami 28-10
as a 7 pt AD, as the D forced 4 TO incl 1 that set up a 6 yd TD drive. TU was outFD’d 20-11 and outgained
303-294. QB Stewart, in his 2nd start, improved to 178 yds (48%) with a 3-1 ratio. CM has a huge off edge
(#37-115) but TU does have the D edge (#53-109). Both have played Buff TY. CM held on for a 27-25 SU
win as a 6’ pt HF with 21-18 FD and 360-336 yd edges. TU lost 30-28 as a 6’ pt AD but was outFD’d 24-19
and outgained 449-389. CM is led by QB LeFevour who avg 254 ypg (63%) with a 7-3 ratio and is the top
rusher (318, 4.4). Despite being 3-2 SU, CM is 1-3 ATS being outscored 31-26 and outgained 406-386
with their 2 IA wins by a comb 5 pts.
OHIO ST 38 Purdue 10 - LY OSU traveled to face a 5-0 Purdue tm who was thinking upset but the Bucks
forced a school record 12 punts and finished with a 381-184 yd edge. OSU led 23-0 before PU scored a
TD w/:10 left. Tiller had won 3 in a row ATS vs Tressel prior. OSU is 26-17 as a HF but 0-3 TY. OSU broke
Wisky’s 16 gm home win streak thanks to an 80 yd TD drive directed by Pryor who scored on an 11 yd
run w/1:08 left. As the starter (L/3) Pryor has accounted for 8 of OSU’s 10 TD’s. RB Beanie Wells (385,
7.9) has 100 yds in every gm he’s played TY despite not being 100%. OSU is #21 in pass eff D all’g 155
ypg (58%) with a 7-9 ratio. PU is off a 20-6 home loss to Penn St in which QB Painter was benched in the
4Q after failing to get the Boilers into the EZ for the 3rd consec time vs the Lions. Painter has struggled
(#83 NCAA pass eff) avg 245 ypg (58%) with a 5-5 ratio but Tiller said he will start vs OSU despite backup
Eilliot’s 82 yd TD drive LW. Boilers’ short handed D allows 196 rush ypg (5.0) to rank #104 in the NCAA.
With huge edges all around, OSU bullies the Boilers.
Tcu 35 COLORADO ST 10 - HC Patterson is 4-0 SU & ATS vs CSU and TCU won here 45-14 (-9’) in ‘06. LW
it looked like SDSt was going to make a gm of it (held TCU to 2 early FG’s), but TCU ended with 498-85 yd &
28-4 FD edges in a 41-7 romp. Bkup QB Jackson (Dalton knee, CS) rushed for 131. TCU’s D is phenomenal
all’g just 29.3 ypg rush (#1 NCAA), holding every opp under 75! They now take on a CSU tm that looked
like a diff squad LW behind the power-running of G. Johnson (191 yd) who leads with 491 (5.0). CSU went
up 14-3 after 1Q but UNLV battled back and took a 28-27 lead w/6:05 left. Johnson broke through for a 10
yd TD run w/:09 left. LV tried 5 laterals on the KR before Mosure knocked it down & ran the fmbl back for a
misleading 41-28 final. CSU did have a commanding 510-347 yd edge incl 216 rush yd. QB Farris bounced
bk LW (96 yd vs Cal) and now avg 235 ypg (66%) with a 5-5 ratio. WR Greer had an outstanding gm with
211 rec yd (26.4) and leads with 33 rec (17.3).TCU does have a huge gm vs BYU on deck, so lookahead is
a possibility here, but it’s tough to go with CSU who is just 1-5 S/’99 as a DD conf dog.
MISSOURI 52 Oklahoma St 35 - Last time here (‘04), OSU came back from 17 pts down (biggest comeback
S/‘79) for a 20-17 upset. Gundy is 3-9 SU on the B12 road and MO is 8-3 SU in the series (3 losses by 3
ppg). OSU is 10-24 as an AD and MO is 10-5 as a HF. OkSt is a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-0 ATS after hanging
50+ (4th str gm) on A&M. QB Robinson avg 207 ypg (72%) with a 10-3 ratio. OSU has the NCAA’s #2 rush
off lead by Hunter (708 yds, 7.0). MO also comes in 5-0 (3-1 ATS) after snapping a 15 gm losing streak in
Lincoln (52-17). Heisman hopeful QB Daniel avg 333 ypg (76%) with a 15-1 ratio. He has led 48 drives,
33 for a score, 5 punts & zero 3 & outs! Under Pinkel MO is 14-7-1 ATS vs B12 South and OSU is 12-22-1
ATS on the B12 road. Both off are high octane (MO #2 & OSU #6), but MO has the D edge (#31-63). MO
is in a tough B12 road sandwich but has won 10 str HG’s by at least 14. The last time OSU started 5-0
was in ‘04 before they played a ranked A&M squad and lost by 16 as a fav!
GEORGIA 27 Tennessee 6 - LY UT all’d UGA only 2 FD’s in the 1H & finished with a 411-243 yd edge (RB
Moreno was held to 30 yd) in their 35-14 win. LY UT had a bye the wk prior and Fulmer’s job was on the line.
TY the Dogs are off a bye and playing to avenge the gm that cost them the SEC East and a poss National
Title berth. The last meeting in Athens prod the most pts ever in the series, a 51-33 UT win. The dog has
3 outright upsets the L/4 and the visitor has won 4 of 5 with the avg win by 16 ppg. Richt is 10-2 SU off a
bye and the Vols are 2-4 as an AD. UGA RB Moreno (489, 6.3) suffered an elbow inj vs AL, but is exp to
play, but while TE Chandler is out and starting LB Ellerbe is doubtful (knee). UGA QB Stafford avg 239 ypg
(60%) with a 7-1 ratio with true Fr Green (PS#3) his top target (22, 17.6). UT’s new off has struggled with
QB Crompton (165 ypg, 52%, 2-4 ratio) being benched LW as they barely got past NI (held to 225 ttl yd & 9
FD) and Stephens threw for 156 yds & the gm’s only TD. This is a battle of Top 10 D’s, but UGA has a huge
edge on off (#11-52) plus has huge edges coming off the bye and playing at home with revenge.
USC 38 Arizona St 7 - ASU travels to the Coliseum after suffering their 3rd str defeat and has now dropped
8 of 9 ATS. The ground gm has been the main culprit as ASU avg just 85 ypg (2.9) rush TY while QB
Carpenter cont’s to carry the tm throwing for 270 ypg (67%) with an 8-4 ratio. ASU has also lost 8 str to
USC incl LY on Thanksgiving when they were held to a ssn low 259 yd incl 16 rush (0.5) in a 44-24 romp.
USC ret’d to its winning ways smashing Oreg 44-10 in a gm in which they put up nearly 600 yds ttl off. QB
Sanchez rebounded well from the OSU loss passing for 332 yd & 3 TD but suffered a 4Q knee inj (CS).
While ASU is 6-17-1 as an AD, they did cover their last trip here (+19) as they fell behind 21-0 but rallied
to tie as USC needed a TD w/4:29 left. USC has our #1 D and has surrendered just 223 ypg at home TY
which spells trouble vs an ASU tm that is 1-9 ATS in their 2nd consec RG.
OREGON 42 Ucla 14 - UO is 14-4 as a HF and returns here after being outgained 598-239 yds in their
34 pt loss to USC. Despite the QB issues TY, the off has fared well avg 483 ttl ypg led by the 1-2 punch
of RB’s Johnson & Blount who have comb to rush for 966 yd (6.3) and 15 TD. LY in a gm that featured
as many punts as FD’s (22), UCLA held the once high-powered UO off to just 148 ttl yd in a 16-0 win as
UO was playing its 1st gm after QB Dixon was lost for the yr. UCLA got its 1st conf win under new HC
Neuheisel as they beat Wash St for the 1st time in the Rose Bowl S/’98 holding WSU to just 177 ttl yd.
UCLA has beaten UO just twice S/’00 and the last time here we used UO as a 3H LPS (-8) in a gm that
they led 30-13 before a late TD. While the HT is just 5-11 ATS, UO has its 1st bye of the ssn on deck and
should be too much for a rebuilding UCLA squad here.
MICHIGAN 34 Toledo 13 - First meeting between these 2 which are 54 miles apart. UM is in a B10
sandwich and just 1-9 as a 20+ fav. UT is 1-8 ATS (0-9 SU) when visiting a BCS tm losing by an avg of 27
ppg. The Rockets are just 5-13 as an AD (1-1 TY) and are off a devastating 31-0 loss to Ball St, their 1st
MAC shutout S/’85 & 1st at home S/’78. UT was outgained 482-157 by the Cards and hasn’t scored a TD
in 7Q’s. RB Collins (371, 7.4) ret’d but had just 11 yds while QB Opelt has struggled avg 174 ypg (59%)
with a 7-3 ratio to rank #86 in the NCAA in pass eff. Rockets allow 171 rush ypg (4.1). The Wolves are off
to their worst start S/’67 after their 2H collapse vs Illinois in which they were outgained 501-319 and UM
lost 2 more fmbl’s (T-NCAA worst 11). “Good†Threet was 5-8 for 95 yds & 1 TD as Mich jumped out to a
14-3 lead but “Bad†Threet was 13-27 for 155 the rest of the game. Wolves’ D allows 109 rush ypg (2.7).
UM needs this for bowl elig and the offense gets back on track.
AUBURN 34 Arkansas 10 - The road tm has covered 3 in a row and in their last trip here Ark delivered
another Big Dog win when +15 they upset #2 Auburn 27-10. LY Ark was held to 67 yds rush (220 yds
below ssn avg) but appeared to pull out the win on a TD w/1:36 left but Auburn got a 20 yd FG on the
last play to pull the upset on the road (visitor is 5-1 SU). Tuberville takes on his former OC Petrino, who
nearly took his job in a failed coup in ‘03. Auburn is 5-1 SU & ATS in the series. The dog is 8-3 ATS. Aub is
off a distressing loss to Vandy in which their spread off (#73) was held to just 4 yds rush in the 2H and a
missed xp was the difference in the gm. QB Todd has avg 148 ypg (57%) with a 5-5 ratio with mobile bkup
Burns only seeing spot duty. RB Tate is the top rusher (501, 4.4) and Ark has all’d 208 rush ypg (5.3). Ark
has also struggled in their new off (#74) led by QB Dick (238 ypg, 59%, 5-5 ratio). RB Smith (423, 5.7)
has been a bright spot. Ark’s OL though veteran, featuring Rimington winner Luigs, has struggled to pass
blk and has all’d 21 sks (last in NCAA) while Aub’s D has posted 13 sks. Ark is on an 0-6 ATS run (though
Aub 0-5 run) and faces their 4th consec Top 25 tm and have been outscored by an avg of 46-10 the L/3.
Aub has huge edges on D (#9-90) and ST’s (#18-108) and need a feel-good win, although their struggling
offense makes it tough (4-13 DD fav).
NEVADA 41 New Mexico St 38 - UN leads series 10-1 SU (3-3 ATS). The Wolf Pack has scored 40+pts
(avg 45 ppg) in each of the 3 meetings as WAC foes going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS (avg win by 17 ppg). These
two have comb to avg 73 ppg the L/3. LY there were 6 lead changes & UN got a 31 yd TD pass w/1:00 left
for the win, 40-38 (-7). NMSt is just 1-17 SU & 5-13 ATS as an AD under HC Mumme but the lone SU win
was in the Aggies’ last AG vs UTEP (34-33, +7). QB Holbrook avg 280 ypg (67%) with a 10-5 ratio. WR’s
Williams (23 rec, 16.4) & Harris (26 rec, 9.7) have picked up where they left off LY but newcomer Anderson
has been a welcome addition with his big-play abilities resulting in 12 rec (21.3). UN HC Ault is 17-1 SU
& 14-2 ATS as a HF. The Wolf Pack has the edge on off (#14-57), D (#82-111) & ST’s (#105-114). UN’s
off avg 521 ypg led by dual-threat QB Kaepernick who is avg 191 ypg (66%) with a 6-2 ratio & leads with
511 yds rush & 8 TD. He has been causing opposing DC’s fits trying to find a way to slow him down. UN’s
“M&M†WR duo of Mitchell (22 rec, 17.3) & McCoy (21 rec, 7.2) help stretch the field. This is old school
WAC football meaning the last one with the ball wins.
N ILLINOIS 31 Miami, Oh 10 - MU is actually 8-1 SU in their first MAC AG but has lost 3 in a row to NI
(1-2 ATS) and lost their last trip here (‘05, 38-27). In ‘06, NI went ahead by 3 w/7:46 left 4Q & then held
MU twice near midfield winning 28-25 on the road (-13’). The Huskies are 4-0 ATS and off a 13-9 loss to
Tenn as a 16’ pt AD. They were only outgained 225-194 and settled for 3 FG’s of 25 yds or less. NI QB
Nicholson left with a shoulder inj in the 2Q (CS) and the game was tied 3-3 at the half. Bkup QB Grady hit
just 4-10 for 39 yds but led the tm with 47 yd (3.1) rushing. MU is 1-3 ATS and lost 28-10 to Temple as a 7
pt HF. They did have 20-11 FD and 303-294 yd edges but gave up 4 TO’s. MU brought in bkup QB Belton
in the 2H to replace an ineffective Raudabaugh (44%, 65 yds). Belton threw for 178 yds (48%) with an
0-1 ratio leading them to 10 unanswered 3Q pts. NI has the off (#78-109) and the D edges (#42-92) and
ranks higher than Temple in both categories.
BYU 41 New Mexico 13 - BYU is 7-1 as a DD HF. These two have met every yr S/‘51 & LY BYU scored 24 pts
off 5 NM TO’s in a 31-24 win. Mendenhall was the DC at NM from ‘98-‘02 installing the 3-3-5. The visitor has won
6 str ATS and NM is 21-13 (0-1 TY) as an AD and 17-7 ATS in conf AG’s. LW BYU extended its shutout streak
to 11Q’s before all’g an early 4Q TD in what many are calling a “disappointing†34-14 win over Utah St. Collie
went over 100 yds rec for the 3rd str gm and leads with 38 rec (13.6) while TE Pitta has 35 (14.3). QB Hall is
avg 317 ypg (72%) with a 17-4 ratio and Unga has 455 rush yd (4.6). Cougs D is all’g an unprecedented 11.6
ppg TY. NM is off its 1st shutout in MWC history (& 1st shutout S/’83), beating WY 24-0 with a 350-201 yd edge.
Long said that they will spend TW working on Gruner’s pass gm as he has thrown for 88 ttl yd in his 2 sts (43%)
with an 0-0 ratio. RB Ferguson DNP LW (CS) & Wright finished w/120 yd (8.0). BYU has made it a habit to start
quickly which will force NM to throw and with a 3-10 tm ratio, it could be a long day for the Lobos.
OREGON ST 49 Washington St 10 - The Cougars journey to Corvallis fresh off yet another beatdown as
UCLA held WSU to just 177 ttl yds on 11 FD’s (2-14 3rd down conv). Not much has gone well on either
side of the ball as they are down to their 3rd string QB in Lobbestael (164 ypg, 54%, 4-4 ratio) and own a
D that has all’d 452 ypg vs IA opp’s (outscored by a 48-10 avg). LY WSU QB Brink was int’d 6 times (5 in
the 1H) in his final HG as the Cougs were hammered 52-17. In ‘06, WSU won their 1st game in Corvallis
S/’96 but they have struggled in B2B AG’s dropping 6 of 8 both SU & ATS. The Beavers have been dynamite
at home (414-262 yd edge) TY incl their monumental upset of #1 USC. While they dropped a heartbreaker
to Utah LW (outgained the Utes 405-337), they have HUGE edges vs WSU here in both off (#23-111) and
D (#20-104). Their best ball is also usually played now as over the L2Y, the Beavers have gone 13-2 SU
and 12-3 ATS after their 5th game of the regular ssn.
Arizona 30 STANFORD 23 - The Cardinal return home after playing 4 of 5 away incl LW’s loss to ND
giving us a 3H LPS Winner. Arizona has the NCAA’s #2 D surrendering just 226 ypg after another strong
performance vs the winless Huskies and will look for continued momentum. The visitor has gone 10-2
ATS. In their last trip to Stanford, the Wildcat D held the Cardinal to just 52 ttl yds (-6 rush) marking their
lowest ydg total in school history. However, LY Stanford scored a 4Q TD & recovered a fmbl at their own
22 w/2:00 left to pull out the road victory (+13, 21-20). Despite the Cats success in ‘08, they’ve played
our #111 schedule and have struggled in Oct under HC Stoops going just 3-14 SU in his 5 year tenure.
The Cardinal, on the other hand have played a much tougher sched TY (#5) and have actually won and
covered their L/3 HG’s incl SU wins vs Cal & Oreg St. The Cats beat up a Locker-less Huskies team LW,
SU is off a misleading final vs ND and both have much to prove.
KENT ST 23 Ohio 20 - KSU faces an Ohio tm on its 3rd AG in 4 wks. The last meeting here (‘06) was
played in 33 mph winds and two poor punts into the wind set up OU TD’s, in a gm that cost KSU the East
title. LY on the road KSU dominated more than the 33-25 final leading 27-10 with a 25-16 FD edge. The
Flashes are off a disappointing 2OT loss to rival Akron. KSU had 25-15 FD and 413-301 yd edges but
gave up a 4th down 24 yd TD pass after a flubbed punt to give Akron the lead late 4Q. They were still able
to come back with a late FG to send the game to OT but missed a short FG in the 2nd OT. Despite the
loss KSU covered their 2nd str (+3’). Ohio only trailed WM 11-7 at half but lost 41-20 as a 7 pt AD and was
outgained 503-356. OU had covered 4 str IA gms (incl 2 BCS) losing by a comb 24 pts. OU QB Jackson is
avg 189 ypg (58%) with a 9-7 ratio and RB Harden rush with 339 (5.3). KSU QB Edelman is avg 137 ypg
(53%) with a 7-6 ratio and leads with 487 yds (5.1). Both tms are 1-4 SU but neither is being dominated
by opp’s. They both have suffered several key inj’s and have found ways to lose.
CINCINNATI 23 Rutgers 17 - Rutgers led 17-7 LY at home but Cincy scored 2 TD’s in :19 & went on for
the win. QB Teel passed for 334 yds (58%) but threw 3 int & was sacked twice. Rutgers got to the Cincy
17 but was int’d at the end. Last time here UC won the biggest gm in program history with the 30-11 upset
over #7 Rutgers knocking them from the BCS race as a 4H LPS Winner. Cincy defeated Marshall LW
33-10. After inj’s to the #1 and #2 QB’s, rFr Anderson made his 1st start & threw for 158 yds (62%) with 2
TD’s and ran for another. Rutgers come-from-behind drive was cut short in their 24-17 loss to WV. A team
that came into the season with high hopes on offense has struggled to find the run game, and QB Teel
has had trouble protecting the ball with a 3-7 ratio. The HT is 5-2 ATS and Cincy is 6-2 ATS vs the Knights.
Rutgers has a slight def edge (#47-49) and Cincy has off edge (#54-80), a huge ST’s edge (#10-101) and
is 27-10 S/’02 at home. While RU has struggled TY, they are looking up at Cincy in the Big East standings
which puts them in a favorable position.
TEXAS TECH 48 Nebraska 20 - One of our favorite 5H’s of all-time was in ‘04 as we used TT (-7) and
they ROMPED NU 70-10! Huskers are 4-10 as an AD (8-17 SU on B12 road) and this marks their FIRST
road trip in 6 wks and Lubbock is a tough place with TT 16-9 as a B12 HF (also TT HC, 14-2 SU & 13-3
ATS). TT has been unimpressive in non-conf play but took care of KSU LW 58-28 to remain unbeaten.
QB Harrell is avg 405 ypg (67%) with an 18-3 ratio. WR Crabtree has 38 rec (14.
& 8 TD. NU hasdropped B2B gms after a 3-0 start and will be on their 3rd leg of their most difficult stretch of ‘08. QB
Ganz is avg 257 ypg (66%) with a 9-5 ratio. NU is ranked #19 in our pass eff def allowing 243 ypg (60%)
with a 5-5 ratio. Both offenses are potent (TT #3 & NU #24), but TT has the D edge (#26-64) the Raiders
have played a soft sked (#107) so far as the Huskers will be their toughest opp to date. Under Leach
TT is 43-10 in Lubbock (23-14 HF) and since this is their only HG in 5 wks look for the Red Raiders to
take care of a Husker team that hasn’t won on the B12 road since ‘06 (1-6-1 ATS AG run).
KANSAS 31 Colorado 17 - CU is 2-8 SU (4-10 ATS run) on the B12 road. LY CU held #15 KU to 31
pts & 183 yds below its ssn avg as they had FD & yd edges in a 19-14 loss at home (+3’). CU is 5-2
SU vs KU with their wins by 16 ppg and losses by 5 ppg. KU is 14-5 as a HF and CU just 3-9 as an
AD. KU beat ISU LW 35-33. It was the 3rd largest come-from-behind victory in school history erasing a
20 pt HT deficit to escape the upset. QB Reesing is avg 343 ypg (70%) with a 14-3 ratio. The Jayhawk
ground gm (only 119 ypg, 3.4.) is still struggling to get on track & now faces a CU rush D all’g 171 ypg
(4.5). LW the Buffs lost to Texas 38-14. QB Hawkins (185 ypg, 59%, 10-4) has struggled the L2W, but
CU has suffered many OL inj’s and have only 2 upperclassmen in the 2-deep! KU rolled B12 opp’s at
home LY with the avg win by 41 pts (+222 ypg), Mangino is 7-3 as a B12 HF and the Jayhawks have
the off (#25-76) & D edges (#41-50). KU needs to take care of business vs the Buffs with four ranked
B12 foes still waiting ahead (#1 OU on deck).
Penn St 27 WISCONSIN 20 - Low scoring series with the teams avg 37 ppg & PSU has scored only 2
FG’s in their L/2 trips to Madison. The HT is 4-0 SU/ATS winning by an avg of 25.5-6.7. LY PSU dominated
at home 38-7 (-6’) with 437 yds. Wisky is the 1st Big Ten team to open the ssn with Mich, OSU and
PSU in a row and after B2B comeback losses are now reduced to playing spoiler. QB Evridge has
struggled in conf play avg 187 ypg (53%) with a 2-3 ratio while being sk’d 6x (0 in 1st 3). RB Hill (512,
4.7) is splitting time with the quicker PS#3 rFr Clay (269, 6.7). UW has all’d big yds in the 2H of the L/3
gms & was 3 Fresno missed FG’s away from losing all 3. PSU is off a 20-6 win at Purdue in which they
outgained the Boilers 422-236. Big Ten pass eff leader QB Clark avg 186 ypg (65%) with a 9-1 ratio.
RB Royster has 659 yds (7.9). Lions lead the league in rush D allowing 80 ypg (2.5) with 17 sk. PSU
has the edges all around and starts a new, negative home streak for the reeling Badgers.
SAN JOSE ST 27 Utah St 10 - SJSt has won 10 of the L/11 but 6 of the L/7 have been decided by
7 pts or less. SJSt is 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS as a HF under HC Tomey & the Spartans are on a 9-3 ATS
run. In ‘06 here, the Aggies led 14-0 (+17) but SJSt got a TD with 3:56 left for the 21-14 win. USU QB
Borel is avg 121 ypg (57%) with a 6-3 ratio & also has 257 yds rushing. His fav target, Nelson has 19
rec (11.3) & 2 TD while RB Turbin has 263 yds (5.2) & 3 TD. USU’s D is ranked #108 in the NCAA all’g
436 ypg. SJSt has the edge on both off (#106-112) & D (#40-99). Spartan QB Reed is avg 163 ypg
(73%) with a 4-2 ratio & also has 4 TD rushing. RB Davis has 326 yd (5.5) while WR has Richmond
has 28 rec (11.4). SJSt’s D is ranked #22 (NCAA) all’g 287 ypg. The Spartans’ DL has shown a spike
in production TY as the unit has accounted for 10 sacks (tm has 15, T-#9 NCAA) thru 5 gms led by C
Ihenacho who has 5, matching his ttl from all of LY. SJSU’s entire DL unit had 11 sks in ‘07. Both teams
have WAC AG’s on deck with SJSt facing NMSt & USU meeting Nevada.
Tulsa 48 SMU 38 - Tulsa is 5-10 SU vs SMU & the HT has won 6 str with SMU on a 4-0 ATS run. LY
was a tough loss for SMU as they led 23-22 and had the ball at the Tulsa 1 but were SOD. Tulsa got a
51 yd TD pass with :43 left for the win. SMU won 34-24 (+6’) in the last meeting in Dallas in ‘06. Tulsa
is off a 63-28 win over Rice that was actually close in the 1H. TU only led 21-14 at the half, but turned
it on after the break. Tulsa rushed for a ssn high 386 yds (7.3) and outgained Rice 577-453. Tulsa’s
maligned D (#108) forced 4 TO’s and produced 2 sks. SMU is off a 31-17 loss to UCF in which they
outgained the Knights 376-280. The SMU D (#117) actually had its best performance to date, but TO’s
and ST’s mistakes made it hard to keep UCF out of the EZ. True Fr QB Mitchell threw for 351 yds but
also 3 int, bringing his ratio to 13-15 on the ssn. TU HC Graham is 2-4 as a DD conf fav and SMU has
won the L/6 SU (5-1 ATS) at home in the series. Despite a huge off edge for Tulsa (#5-101), look for
SMU to make it a closer game than many would predict.
Boise St 31 SOUTHERN MISS 21 - LY SM all’d a ssn high 506 yds to Boise in a 38-16 loss on ESPN.
TY Boise travels to the green grass and the humidity of the South and the Broncos are just 6-10 as an
AF (3-6 under Petersen). SM is 1-0 as a HD in FIVE yrs. Boise did go into Fresno and win by 13 (-3) LY
(another hostile environment). The #15 ranked Broncos got extra rest as they beat LA Tech 38-3 last
Wed. QB Moore was 20-28 for 325 yds and 2 TD and is now completing 72% of his passes with a 7-2
ratio on the ssn. SM is coming off a 2OT home loss to UTEP, 40-37, and has lost 2 straight HG’s. SM
outgained UTEP 541-382, as RB Fletcher became the school’s all-time leading rusher with a career
high 260 yd, but needed a last second FG to force OT. Boise has the adv on off (#38-55) and on D
(#37-80), but SM has played the tougher sked (#51-99). SM HC Fedora is 3-0 ATS vs non-conf in his
1st yr and expect the prideful Golden Eagles to keep this relatively close.
UTEP 37 Tulane 23 - LY TU jumped out to a 17-0 lead & cruised to a 34-19 win outgaining UTEP 485-
412. This is the 4th meeting as each gm has been decided by 14+ with the winner scoring 34+. UTEP
is 2-1 in the series and the ATS winner has covered by DD each time. Tulane is 11-22-1 ATS in CUSA
play. UTEP is 3-12 as a fav in CUSA, 2-9 under Price. UTEP is coming off 2 consec conf SU/ATS wins
incl at SM LW 40-37 in 2OT. QB Vittatoe threw 4 TD in the win and has a 7-1 (9-4 overall) ratio the L/2.
UTEP was outgained 541-382, but played a “bend but don’t break†D in the 2H forcing 3 RZ FG’s by
the Eagles. Tulane is coming off a shocking 44-13 loss to previously winless Army. TU turned the ball
over 4x’s and 2 of those (1 FR, 1 IR) went to the house for Army scores. TU was playing catch-up the
whole gm and outgained Army 489-334, but never got closer than 10 pts. QB Moore threw 2 picks and
only has a 6-6 ratio on the ssn. Tulane travels to the Sun Bowl off a tough loss so expect UTEP to keep
their CUSA momentum going.
Air Force 24 SAN DIEGO ST 17 - LY AF had 3 plyrs rush for 100+ yd (tm ssn-high 569 yd rush) and
these 2 comb for 1,176 yd ttl off. SDSt is 7-4 ATS and the fav is 5-10 ATS in the series. SDSt is 9-15
as a HD (1st TY) but 10-3 ATS in conf HG. This is their Skyshow which routinely draws the season's
largest home crowd. In ‘06 SDSt (+13’) won outright, 19-12 but got a FG w/:02 left & added a TD picking
up a lateral on the KO. SDSt was thrashed 41-7 LW with TCU holding HUGE edges (498-95 yd, 28-4
FD, SDSt -13 yds rush!). QB Lindley went out late 1Q (CS) and bkup JC Westling hit 6-17 for 61 yd
with SDSt getting just 2 FD’s (55 ttl yds) after Lindley left. AF is off a very disappointing loss to Navy as
poor ST’s play did them in. AF had 411-244 yd & 20-13 FD edges but could not overcome 2 blk’d P for
TD’s. The Falcons bounce back well though, as they are 5-1 ATS the gm after Navy. SDSt has taken on
some below avg rush tms and all’d 245 ypg (4.9). Not counting the UT gm (UT 2-1 yd edge, only 3 pt
loss), AF avg 325 ypg rush (4.9). Five of the L/7 in series have been upsets incl 2 as DD’s.
FRESNO ST 51 Idaho 13 - Fresno leads 6-4 but has won the L/5 by an avg of 36-14 (3-0 ATS). FSU is
3-0 SU & ATS S/’05 in the 3 gms as WAC foes. Since joining the WAC in ‘05, UI is 2-20 SU & 8-13-1 ATS
as an AD & the Vandals are in a 1-13 ATS slump. UI QB Enderle is avg 175 ypg (53%) with a 9-7 ratio
while TE/WR Williams has 36 rec (13.9) & has more than 3x as many catches as the next rec (11). UI’s D
is #119 in the NCAA all’g 504 ypg & has just 2 sks (last in the NCAA). FSU’s goal for an outright WAC Title
took a hit LW with a home loss to Hawaii (32-29 in OT, -22’) as TO’s & missed FG’s loomed large for the
Bulldogs. FSU entered LW tied for #5 in the NCAA with only 4 TO’s lost but had 6 vs UH & K Goessling
missed a pair of FG’s (one with :43 to play, another in OT) that proved costly. FSU is 6-2 SU but only
2-6 ATS as a HF. The Bulldogs have the edge here on off (#31-117), def (#84-119) & ST’s (#41-96). QB
Brandstater avg 222 ypg (61%) with an 8-5 ratio but did have 3 int LW. RB Mathews has 468 yds (5.6) &
4 TD while TE Pascoe has 20 rec (9.0). FSU gets back on track before their bye.
Ball St 37 WKU 13 - LY WK had a 411-363 yd edge but lost 35-12 in a gm much closer than the final.
BSU is 5-1 as an AF but hasn’t been a DD AF S/’92. This is only the 2nd IA school to visit WK and they
nearly upset Troy with a 416-363 yd edge in a 21-17 loss. BSU is off its first shutout S/’00 with 31-0
win over Tol and is 6-0 for 1st time S/’65 and ranked for the 1st time ever. They held Toledo to 14 yds
rush. QB Davis avg 277 ypg (69%) with an 11-3 ratio. RB Lewis has 802 yd (5.6). WK is off its 27-13
loss (closest loss to a IA school) to Virg Tech being outgained only 293-243 but outFD’d 19-8. They did
outgain VT 147-118 in the 2H and outscored them 10-7. WK QB Black is avg 92 ypg (56%) with a 1-0
ratio. RB Rainey has 183 yds (6.5) and WR Cooper has 10 rec (15.1). This is BSU’s (#29 off, #61 def)
4th RG in 5 wks and WK’s (#116 off, #120 def) 2nd HG out of 7.
ARKANSAS ST 30 Ulm 23 - The HT is 4-1 SU with the avg win by 7 ppg. LY ULM was at home (+2’)
and down 13-0 early 2Q before scoring 30 unanswered pts for their largest MOV. The underdog has
covered EIGHT in a row with SIX outright upsets! ULM is 14-6 ATS on the road but ASU is 15-3 SU at
home. ULM is off a 44-35 loss vs ULL being outgained 728-383 (556-241 rush). ULM QB Lancaster
avg 167 ypg (58%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Goodin has 313 yds (5.0) and WR McNeal has 18 rec (12.0).
ASU is off of a bye after losing 29-17 to Mem putting up 228 1H yds but only 124 in 2H. QB Leonard
avg 222 ypg (55%) with a 10-2 ratio. RB Lawson has 447 yds (8.6). WR Johnson has 11 rec (17.1).
You've got to respect the series history and take the dog.
Middle Tennessee 16 FIU 9 - The HT is 3-0 SU (FIU 2-1 ATS) as LY MT held FIU to just 145 ttl yds
and MT scored 47 in the 1st HALF! FIU rallied in the 2H to win 35-31 in their 1st meeting here in Miami
in ‘05. FIU is off their 2nd consec win (1st time since end of ‘05 ssn) beating N Texas 42-10 despite
being outgained 428-347 and outFD’d 22-13. They were down 13-0 and being outgained 160-14 in
1Q vs Toledo before putting up 35 pts (3 TD came on 4th down). FIU QB McCall avg 101 ypg (48%)
with 5-5 ratio and WR Hilton has 8 rec (35.5). MT is 5-2 as an AF. They are off their 14-13 win over
FAU snapping a 4 gm conf losing streak. Craddock threw a 32 yd Hail Mary on 4&9 as time expired
for the win. Craddock avg 269 ypg (66%) with a 7-3 ratio and WR Beyah has 18 rec (22.9). MT stops
the Panthers' modest win streak.
Louisiana-Lft 48 NORTH TEXAS 27 - Nine of the L/10 in the series have been decided by 9 or more pts.
ULL is 4-8 SU vs NT, its worst record vs any SBC tm. ULL is off a 44-35 win over ULM outgaining them
728-383 (556-241 rush) both school records. Fenroy rushed for school rec 297 yds. QB Desormeaux
avg 172 ypg (61%) with a 3-4 ratio and Fenroy has 750 yds (8.3). LY, NT rFr QB Vizza made his 1st start
& threw for 383 yds on 57 att’s but suffered 3 int in the 38-29 road loss (+8) and NT had a 527-414 yd
edge. NT is 7-1 ATS in the series (1 pt loss LY) and is off a 42-10 loss to FIU. Vizza avg 204 ypg (63%)
with a 4-6 ratio. WR Fitzgerald has 41 rec (9.7). This is ULL’s 4th AG in 5 wks. They have our #16 off
avg 331 rush ypg (7.6). NT has the #118 D but has played the #14 toughest sked. They are giving up
just 160 rush ypg (4.5). SBC visiting tms are 3-3 SU but 5-1 ATS so far TY.
Sunday, October 12th
Louisiana Tech at HAWAII - UH leads the series 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS and the HT is 5-1 ATS. UH is 9-1
SU & 6-4 ATS in WAC HG’s. The Warriors had their 9 gm home win streak snapped 2 wks ago but UH
is coming off its 1st ever win over a ranked tm foll a 32-29 OT win at #22 Fresno. Since ‘04, UH 15-10
ATS as a HF while LT is 3-22 SU & 5-20 ATS as an AD. In the L/3Y, LT is just 1-14 SU (3-12 ATS) as
an AD. UH has the edge on off (#87-104) & D (#75-97) but LT has a huge edge on ST (#5-112). UH is
#116 in the NCAA in TO margin but won the TO battle 6-1 LW. UH has a short week with a Fri night gm
at Boise on deck while LT hosts Idaho next.
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2008 6:50pm -
0 likes
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP - NFL
4* Houston 28-13
3* Seattle 31-20
2* St. Louis + 27-31
2* Arizona + 28-27
3* Jets over 45
3* Colts U 39
3* Panthers U36
2* Packers over 47
2* Cowboys over 48
This is the 25th season of our System Section & it has been a consistent winner. Each week we
release a super system which pertains to that week's games. Here is an NFL Week 6 System:
Play on a winless 0-4 or worse team that is a dog after its bye.
1991-2007: 17-2 89%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY: ST LOUIS
KEY SELECTIONS
4* HOUSTON over Miami - This is 3rd year in a row these teams will square off & the dog has covered
the L/2. HOU beat MIA 22-19 LY but failed to cover as a 5 pt HF. MIA lost QB Green to a knee to the
head as he tried to block on a WR end around & they were inspired to a 16-7 lead before HOU hit a
54 yd FG at the half. HOU got past MIA’s emotion with three 50+ yd FG’s including a 57 yarder to win
as they had a 352-285 yd edge. MIA is 5-2-1 ATS away vs an AFC foe. HOU is 5-2 ATS as a HF. MIA
was in a solid situation LW off a bye catching a SD team in their 3rd road game in 4 weeks going cross
country. MIA rolled out the Wildcat offense again (10 direct snaps 48 yds 1 TD) & RB Brown had another
good game with 125 yds rushing (5.2). MIA’s #8 defense was the key though as they held Tomlinson to
35 yds rushing (2.9) and kept Rivers off balance with 159 yds passing (46%) with a 1-0 ratio. MIA held
SD to just 3 of 12 on 3rd Dns with a spec tms fumble in the 3Q getting SD back into the game. HOU
started Rosenfels LW as Schaub (stomach virus) was pulled at the last minute. HOU exploited IND’s
weakness on the DL with 32 rush att’s (4.9) keeping Manning off the field & minus Addai’s 153 yd run
held IND to 64 yds (3.0). MIA now has to go on the road vs a HOU team that outplayed IND LW & while
the Dolphins are better than LY we’ll side with a home team that is angry & deserving of a win.
FORECAST: HOUSTON 28 Miami 13
3*SEATTLE over Green Bay - Including the playoffs, this is the 4th game in as many years with the
home team going 3-0 SU & ATS winning by a 33-20 margin. LY in the div playoffs SEA jumped out to a
14-0 lead after a pair of RB Grant fumbles. GB then outscored SEA 28-3 thru the rest of the 1H & went
66 yds in 6 plays in the 3Q to make it 35-17. SEA hit a 27 yd FG & GB had a 1 yd TD run as Grant rushed
for 201 yds (7.4) after his 2 fumbles. SEA was in a poor spot LW as they were off a bye & playing in the
EST where they always struggle. SEA was hoping the return of WR’s Branch & Engram would spark
the offense but they were outFD 21-10 & outgained 431-147 when they pulled Hasselbeck after going
down 37-6 late in the 3Q. SEA was quickly taken out of its gameplan & RB Jones who rushed for 134
ypg (5.6) vs SF & STL was reduced to a pass blocker. GB’s defensive injuries caught up to them LW
as they lost #1 DT Jenkins to IR, LB Hawk (groin) was ineffective & they were playing their #3 SS in a
beat up secondary. Rodgers had a good game overall (313 yds 68% 3-1) but he was clearly in pain &
now faces a SEA defense that is known for excessive blitzes. SEA is better than LW’s results & look for
them to go to the ground vs a GB team that, minus the DET game is allowing 190 ypg rushing (5.2).
FORECAST: SEATTLE 31 Green Bay 20
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* St Louis (+) over WASHINGTON - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years & the fav is 2-0 ATS. The
technical matchups all side with WAS here as STL is 5-13-1 ATS as an AD, 12-25-1 ATS on grass &
are on an 0-7 ATS streak vs a WAS team on a 7-1 ATS run. STL has the #30 & #31 units (-3 TO’s) vs
WAS #6 & #13 units (+5 TO’s). STL improved the morale significantly by dumping Linehan over the bye
& replaced him with a discipline oriented defensive coach in former NO HC Jim Haslett. Haslett’s 1st
act was to reinstate Bulger as the starting QB & tighten up the intensity in practices. He also directed
OC Saunders to trim the 700 page playbook & feature RB Jackson (110 yds 4.6 vs BUF) & WR Holt
(15 rec 12.5) with more quick drops to help out an OL that has allowed 13 sacks (25th). LY STL was in
a similar situation being 0-8 after their bye & facing a NO team off 4 straight wins. STL won the game
37-29 as 10’ pt dogs & had a 409-299 yd edge. WAS’s defense rallied together LW as they missed 4
def starters & minus the 1Q outgained PHI 365-133. WAS is off 2 upset win vs DAL & PHI & are now
hearing about how they are an elite team in the NFC. STL is better than their record & desperate team
needing a win & getting generous points so we’ll side with them as the Ugly Dog which is now 20-9
(69%). FORECAST: St Louis 27 (+) WASHINGTON 31
2* ARIZONA (+) over Dallas - Jerry Jones takes this southwestern rival seriously as DAL is 3-1 SU
& 4-0 ATS vs ARZ since they left the NFC East. DAL is on a 2-7 ATS run. ARZ is 7-3 ATS at home. This
game features DAL #4 & #14 units (-4 TO’s) vs ARZ #5 & #12 units (+1 TO’s). ARZ doesn’t expect WR
Boldin (sinus fracture) to return until after the bye week. ARZ rebounded from their embarrassing road
loss to NYJ by stopping BUF cold with a 41-17 win. They KO’d QB Edwards (concussion) and then kept
an unprepared Losman off balance all day as they converted 4 TO’s into 17 pts. ARZ was in complete
control all day as they had 28-13 FD & 12:22 TOP edges holding RB Lynch to 55 yds (4.2) rushing. DAL
struggled to put CIN away & were a failed 2 pt conversion by CIN from being tied late in the 4Q. Romo
only had 176 yds passing (61%) with a 3-1 ratio but they rediscovered their run game with a 198 (5.2) to
61 (2.7) rush edge. Despite a roster “stocked with Pro Bowlers†the Cowboys really haven’t displayed a
killer instinct this year. They historically had a home edge with a solid fan following but ARZ’s new stadium
& recent success has taken that away. Although the loss of Boldin is a significant blow the defense has
picked up the slack. Look for Safeties Wilson & Rolle to help shut down the intermediate passing game
& provide run support in a higher scoring game. FORECAST: ARIZONA 28 (+) Dallas 27
OTHER GAMES
NEW ORLEANS 30 Oakland 20 - NO is off LW’s MNF game vs MIN & lost 1st RD DC Ellis for 4 wks
before the game. The Raiders return from their bye week (0-5 ATS) with former Idaho HC Tom Cable
(11-25 SU & 17-23 ATS) who is an OL coach by trade, taking over as Al Davis’ figurehead. Former ATL
OC Greg Knapp will call the offense & Rob Ryan remains the DC. Interim rookie HC’s are 4-12-1 ATS
in their 1st game S/’89. This will be Russell’s 1st start in a dome where OAK is 0-6 ATS. NO is 2-6 ATS
vs the AFC. Brees is 7-1 ATS vs OAK from his days with SD avg 191 ypg (64%) with a 13-4 ratio & he
gives NO a massive edge here. Brees is the hottest QB in the NFL prior to MNF avg 336 ypg (72%)
with an 8-4 ratio & getting RB Deuce back vs SF gives the offense the power aspect it needed. OAK
should have a healthier McFadden (turf toe) & expect to get Fargas who is their best pass protector
back. NO is vulnerable vs the run (#19) & pass (#29) & are a beat up team overall. Firing Kiffin was a
huge mistake as the roster believed in him & look for NO to jump out to a fast start, take Russell out of
his comfort zone & make him pass though NO will give up some big yards here.
INDIANAPOLIS 17 Baltimore 14 - Including playoffs this is the 5th meeting in as many years & the Colts
are 4-0 SU & ATS. LY IND beat an injury depleted BAL team off an emotional MNF loss to NE 44-20 on
SNF as a 9 pt AF. BAL was without Rolle & McAllister & IND jumped out to a 30-0 lead in the 2Q & was up
44-7 in the 3Q. BAL switched to Troy Smith & IND allowed 13 pts in garbage time. IND had a 334-243 yd
edge & was +5 in TO’s. IND is 1-4 ATS as a HF. BAL is 1-8 SU & ATS on the road. Manning has done well
vs BAL in the reg season avg 259 ypg (67%) with an 8-1 ratio. BAL gets a break here after facing 2 of the
most physical teams in the NFL in PIT & TEN. IND has some very basic Football 101 problems as they only
avg 68 ypg (3.6) running the ball (#32) & are allowing 189 ypg (4.9) (#32) which plays into BAL’s strengths
as they are 4th rushing the ball (154 ypg 3.
& 1st stopping the run (64 ypg 2.. BAL played a very goodgame vs TEN LW & thru the 1st 3Q had 18-8 FD & 231-67 yd edges before letting a 10-3 lead slip thru their
fingers. IND was very lucky to beat HOU LW as Rosenfels fumbled the ball twice in the final 3:54 which the
Colts converted into 14 pts for the win. BAL is utilizing Flacco similar to how PIT utilized Roethlisberger as
a rookie & with both of IND’s wins coming vs teams that self destructed late in the game we’ll side with an
angry BAL team that is executing the basic fundamentals very well & getting points.
NY JETS 30 Cincinnati 27 - The Bengals beat the Jets 38-31 LY as a 6.5 pt HF. The Jets blew a 23-10 lead
with 11:15 left in the 3Q as Palmer led the team on 76 & 57 yd TD drives to take a 24-23 lead. CIN then turned
2 TO’s into 14 pts (38-23) & with :32 left they gave up a 32 yd pass (2pt conv). CIN is in a poor spot as this
is the 3rd road game in 4 games & get a Jets team that is 6-0 ATS after a bye. NYJ are 4-0 ATS as a fav of 6
or more. LY after 5 games CIN was being outgained an avg 393-367 losing by an avg of 31-25. TY they are
being outgained 339-239 & are losing by an avg 24-15. They are playing with a talented but wounded QB &
have nothing to offer on the ground being outrushed 171 (4.5) to 78 (3.3) TY.
LY after 4 games the Jets were1-3 being outgained 366-283 & losing by an avg 26-18. TY they have been outgained 341-308 with a 29-29
scoring margin & the yardage is off due to the short fields the team got vs ARZ. LY after 4 starts Favre avg’d
301 ypg (66%) with an 8-2 ratio & 7.1 ypa. TY he’s avg 233 ypg (70%) with a 12-4 ratio & 7.5 ypa & is coming
off one of his career best games. Palmer has done well in his L2 starts vs NYG & DAL & the team played here
just 3 weeks ago but the Jets don’t have the same fan fervor the Giants do. We’ll side with an increasingly
frustrated road team as long as Palmer starts vs the weakest defense (21) he’s played so far.
TAMPA BAY 16 Carolina 13 - CAR is 7-3 ATS vs TB & while they beat TB 31-23 in the season finale LY as
a 3 pt AF the Bucs were resting everyone they could to prepare for their Wildcard game. Both are in positive
technical spots as CAR is 6-0-1 ATS as a div AD &TB is 5-1-1 ATS as a div favorite. CAR is off a pair of easy
wins vs a pair of bottom tier teams as they mauled KC 34-0 & had 17-5 FD & 380-77 yd edges thru the 1st
3Q of the game but AD’s off a shutout win are 5-14-2 ATS since 1998. The stalwarts of the CAR offense
seems to be in gear again as Delhomme (236 yds 64% 2-1 LW) is throwing deep to Steve Smith (6 rec, 16.0)
with RB Williams (123, 6.3) keeping the pass rush honest. The CAR OL was without both starting OT’s LW
& while KC couldn’t exploit that TB will if they don’t return. TB returns from a trip to DEN where QB Griese
was KO’d with a shoulder inj & they went back to Garcia who had fallen out of favor with the coaching staff.
TB is a team that can deliver superior line play on both sides of the ball as minus the CHI game they have
rushed for 157 yds (5.6) with just 7 sacks. The DL gets credit for holding opponents to 100 ypg (3.7) rushing
with 11 sacks. CAR has the momentum off their 2 game home stand & TB is in a bit of a fix as while Garcia
gives them a good chance of winning he doesn’t fit the 2008 TB offense as he freelances too much. We’ll
call this at the line for now & see what CAR’s OL & TB’s injury situations are this week.
MINNESOTA 31 Detroit 17 - MIN is off a potential shootout vs NO & faces a DET team that came out flat
after their bye vs CHI. The fav is 4-1-1 ATS & MIN beat DET 42-10 as a 4 pt HF LY. MIN had a 35-10 lead at
the half & finished with 29-14 FD & 443-254 yd edges & they dominated with a 216 (5.5) - 23 (3.3) rushing
edge on the ground. DET was in a good spot at home LW catching a CHI team on a slightly short week
that was w/o susp DT Harris, its #1WR & the secondary was very beat up also. However, they still have
problems with a slow start as they went 3 & out on 4 of their first 5 drives with a fumble & were outgained
353-94 thru the 1st 3Q. DET has been outrushed 180 (4.4) to 72 (5.0) & the #28 pass defense is worse
than its rankings allowing 253 ypg (68%) with an 8-0 ratio (122.2 QBR) & a whopping 9.4 ypa. While MIN
has its own set of problems at QB they are solid in the trenches outrushing foes 141 (4.7) to 72 (2.9) prior
to MNF. MIN’s high priced DL gets a good matchup vs a DET OL that is 29th allowing 16 sacks. Kitna is
1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS vs MIN & is only avg 256 ypg (66%) with a 4-8 ratio. He was pulled early in the 2H
for Dan Orlovsky & at 0-4 a QB change could be coming. There is no line due to the MNF game but MIN’s
strengths matchup very well vs the DET weaknesses & we’ll call for a 2 TD win by the road team.
Chicago 20 ATLANTA 10 - This is a bit of a flat spot for CHI who are off an SNF game vs IND, a pair
of blown 4Q leads vs CAR & TB, a SNF game vs PHI & a division road game with DET & has a HG vs
MIN on deck. ATL has a bye on deck & is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS before it. CHI is 4-1-1 ATS as a non-div AF.
The Bears mauled a bad DET team LW as they were up 17-0 at the half with a 12-5 FD, 251-67 yd edge
with a 2-1 TOP edge. Orton had a great day passing for 334 yds (71%) with a 2-0 ratio to make up for
a tough game by Forte who only had 36 yds (2.4) on the ground. ATL had a good matchup LW, getting
points vs a beat up GB team with a wounded Rodgers & depleted defense. At the half ATL had 13-5 FD
& 240-123 yd edges and while Ryan had a very good 1H (154 yds 72% 2-0) he only threw 8 pass att’s
in the 2H as ATL tried to grind out the clock. ATL returns home where they have notched a 426-305 yd
edge but that was vs DET’s #32 & KC’s #30 defenses. Versus 2 decent defenses (TB #16 & CAR #4)
ATL has been outgained 356-251 being outscored 24-9 in both games. CHI should get DT Harris & WR
Lloyd (15 rec 16.6) back here & have faced a much tougher schedule & should get the win.
Jacksonville 21 DENVER 20 - This is a tough spot for JAX who are coming off a SNF game vs PIT &
now has to travel from sea level to DEN (17% less oxygen) on a short week. Teams are 6-22 ATS after
facing PIT. DEN remembers their 23-14 loss well as a 3.5 pt HF LY which wasn’t as close as the final
score indicated. JAX opened the game with an 18 play 80 yd drive that took up 11:44. In the 1H JAX had
a 13-4 FD edge & was up 20-7 after converting a muffed KR by DEN to start the 3Q into a FG. DEN was
SOD at the JAX 3, SOD on 4&5 & int’d at the DEN 35 after the 2:00 warning. DEN is 3-12 ATS as a HF
while JAX is 15-5-1 ATS as an AD. JAX OL issues & lack of talent at WR really hampered the offense in
the first 2 games as they were outrushed 107 (3.7) to 66 (3.0). In the L2 games they settled into their new
OL & vs the #24 & #19 defenses they had a 188 (5.1) to 97 (4.6) yd edge. JAX got WR Porter back vs
HOU & C Meester may return here. They now take on DEN’s #30 defense which is allowing 134 ypg (5.2)
rushing. JAX’s offense is slowly taking shape & their defense is better than their #18 ranking. JAX is 2-2
pending SNF & with TEN (5-0) in the division they have to look at this game with Wildcard implications.
DEN is up on the AFC West thanks to 2 bad official’s calls (SD & NO) & with a MNF road game vs NE
on deck this is a flat spot for a young team & we’ll side for the road team here.
Philadelphia 27 SAN FRANCISCO 20 - This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years with the Eagles going 2-0
SU & ATS with an avg score of 40-14 with a 499-273 yd edge. This is the 1st WC game for PHI since
the last meeting vs SF in 2006. PHI is 13-3 ATS on the road after a SU home loss but 2-7 ATS before
a bye under Reid. PHI finds themselves 2-3 & 4th in the NFC East standings after blowing a 14-0 lead
to start the game vs WAS. Westbrook was able start the game but was ineffective with 18 touches (4.7)
due to a chest injury. Thru the final 3Q PHI was outFD 21-5 & outgained 365-121 as WAS ran 75 total
plays vs PHI’s 47. While PHI has struggled in div play they have outFD non-div foes 21-12 & outgained
them 374-201 allowing just 49 ypg (2.5) rushing. NE used a very basic gameplan LW vs SF as they
stuck to the run & wore out the defense with 43 rush att’s (3.3) keeping the defense on the field for
39:52. SF kept it close until the 4Q but NE basically posted a 2-1 edge in FD’s, yards & TOP. PHI has a
great matchup with a defense that is #1 in sacks by (18) vs a SF OL that is #32 in sacks allowed (20).
SF is a much better team that 2007’s version but we’ll side with a road team that has the #9 & #6 units
(+3 TO) that travels very well vs a SF team with the #21 & #22 units (-3 TO’s).
New England at SAN DIEGO - The Patriots are staying at San Jose St instead of enduring a roundtrip
to the East. This is the 5th meeting in 4 years & the road team has covered 3 of 4. SD has legit revenge
here as LY the Patriots beat SD 38-14 in Wk 2 as a 3.5 pt HF on SNF as the Spygate scandal just
started. NE then knocked SD out of the playoffs with a 21-12 win as a 14 pt HF. SD was in very bad
shape as QB Rivers played on a torn ACL, Gates had a dislocated toe & Tomlinson left after 2 snaps
due to a knee sprain in a game played in 9° windchill. The Chargers were caught looking ahead LW &
lost to MIA 17-10 as they only ran 49 offensive plays. NE played to its depth at RB & wore out SF LW
for a 30-21 win. Can SD rebound or will NE overcome the road logistics.
NY Giants at CLEVELAND - This is the 1st MNF game for CLE since Wk 14 of 2003. These teams
met in the 2nd preseason game & the Browns 2008 troubles started there as the Giants blasted QB
Anderson & gave him a concussion. Anderson would miss the rest of preseason & the CLE offense
would suffer as combined with other injuries there was no cohesion. CLE is off a tough win vs CIN &
OC Chudzinski noted during the bye that they would alter the offense to play to the strengths of their
run. The Giants dismantled SEA 44-6 LW in a great spot but their only road game was in STL who lacks
anything resembling the crowd edge CLE brings here
Our Over/Under Section is in its 21st season. Each week we select the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night
& list them. An * denotes an estimated line. The 3* Totals are 11-4 73%!
Here are this week's plays:
3* Bengals/Jets Over 45'
3* Ravens/Colts Under 39
3* Panthers/Bucs Under 36'
2*Packers/Seahawks Over 47
2* Cowboys/Cardinals Over 48'
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2008 6:53pm -
0 likes
POINTWISE
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
TULSA over Smu RATING: 1 80-30
TEXAS TECH over Nebraska RATING: 1 55-20
ILLINOIS over Minnesota RATING: 2 36-13
TCU over Colorado State RATING: 3 38-14
UTAH over Wyoming RATING: 4 48-7
SAN JOSE STATE over Utah State RATING: 4 41-13
LSU (+) over Florida RATING: 5 20-22
KANSAS over Colorado RATING: 5 41-17
Tulsa 80 - SMU 30 - (8:00) -- Let's see. The 'Canes own the #1 offense in the
nation (nearly 600 ypg, along with 55 ppg in lined games), with QB Johnson
(also #1) at 23/5, including 16 TD passes the past 3 wks. Jones' Ponies can
move it (Mitchell: 351 PYs vs CFla), but field the worst rushing "O" & total "D".
TEXAS TECH 55 - Nebraska 20 - (3:00) -- Wow! Raiders sure did it up right in
58-28 romp at KansasSt: 33 FDs, 626 yds, 1 punt, with 7 TDs for Harrell. He
is now 18/3. No way can 'Huskers stay with 'em here, as Neb has allowed 47
ppg in its last 8 Big12 games, as well as atrocious 52.6 ppg in its last 4 RGs
ILLINOIS 36 - Minnesota 13 - (12:00) -- Chalk series, & this should continue that
trend. Super balance for Illini in rout of Michigan with 310 PYs & 121 RYs from
Juice. Note a 1,472-1,219 yd edge for Illini vs Mizzou, PennSt, & Mich. Minny
at 5-1 SU, & +78 ATS last 7, but Gophs were outrushed by 200 yds at OhioSt.
Tcu 38 - COLORADO STATE 14 - (CBSC) -- Rams' 216 RYs vs Vegas were 70
more than any previous game (Johnson: 191 yds). Two TDs in final 9 seconds
of that game. Loved Frogs' rout of SDSt, with a 396 RY edge. Allow only 22
RYpg, & are 83 pts ahead of the spread in their last 10 contests. Once more.
Utah 48 - WYOMING 7 - (2:00) -- It continues. Cowboys are on an unfathomable
0-13 ATS run, having been outscored 113-16 the past 3 wks, along with 13
TOs. In off allowing 319 RYs. Utes overcame 28-20 deficit in final 1:30 vs
OregSt. Have allowed only 63 RYpg last 3 outings, & took this by 50 last year.
SAN JOSE STATE 41 - Utah State 13 - (7:30) -- We've been patiently awaiting
Spartans return home after riding their 19-pt cover in 1st such setup (476-146
yd edge, including a 293-6 RY advantage). Now +177½ ATS home since '06.
Ags on 3-20 SU run, & rank 108th in total "D". QB Borel not the answer here
FLORIDA 22 - Lsu 20 - (8:00) -- Gators well remember LY's heartbreak, & LW's
balanced display surely proved that revenge is attainable. But their running "O"
wasn't all that impressive before their win over Arkies' sieve "D". Bengals field
a 69 RYpg "D", & Scott at 273 RYs last 2 games. Series RD always the play.
KANSAS 41 - Colorado 17 - (12:30) -- Time for Jays to explode. Sleepwalked
thru 1st half vs IowaSt (20-0 deficit), before pulling out 35-33 win. Reesing at
14/3, & is at 70%. Buff QB Hawkins just 30-of-69 past 2 wks, & check CU with
124, 135, & 120 RY deficits last 3 contests. Fourth straight killer takes its toll.
Clemson 24 - WAKE FOREST 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Both rested off wrenching
losses. Normally dependable Wake QB Skinner tossed 4 picks in loss to Navy,
& Deacs can't run (61 RYpg last 3). First RG for Tigers who are 0-6 ATS by 60
pts, & Harper only 3/5. But Davis & Spiller are rolling, so a mild Clemson call.
HOUSTON 34 - Uab 27 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Blazers must regroup off last-second
loss to Memphis. Webb's 93 RYs & 235 PYs (4 TDs) were a pleasant change
for formerly 116th "O". Coog QB Keenum now 19/5, & note piling up >620 yds
vs ECaro. But UH just 1-8 ATS, with upsets in last 3 affairs. Points the play.
FRIDAY
Louisville 30 - MEMPHIS 20 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Tiger "D" back to usual form vs
Uab, winning in final 0:02, but being outstatted, despite 4 Hall TD passes, &
Steele at 304 RYs last 2 wks. Cards have 564-187 RY edge last 2 outings,
behind Powell & Anderson, & remember their 508-279 yd edge over UConn.
SATURDAY
VIRGINIA 31 - East Carolina 24 - (12:00) -- What happened? Cavs came from
a 684-163 RY deficit in lined games, to shocking 201-79 edge in upset of MD
(44-pt cover). VA: 14 TOs in 1st 4 games, but none vs Terps. Dog is 6-0 ATS
by 105½ pts, with 5 upsets in Pirate tilts. Can't ignore 346-yd deficit last gm.
WEST VIRGINIA 44 - Syracuse 10 - (12:00) -- Just 17 ppg for the Mounties in
their last 4 outings, after 41 ppg previous 32. No White in last 1½ quarters vs
Rutgers, but allowing just 39 & 72 RYs last 2 games. 'Cuse ranks 104th or
worse in 6-of-8 major stat columns, & has run only on Akron. This by the book.
Iowa 24 - INDIANA 22 - (12:00) -- Last 3 Hawkeye RGs have been decided by 3,
1, & 3 pts SU, so why not another. Stellar "D" (#20), with RB Greene at 10.0,
6.0, 6.4, 7.6 & 5.2 ypr last 5 wks, so should continue. Indy suddenly a run "D"
force (2.0 ypr LW, after allowing 249 RYpg previously). This could go to wire.
Michigan State 33 - NORTHWESTERN 27 - (3:30) -- Only 3.6 ypr for Ringer
LW, but still at 772 yds last 4 games. Spartans 5-1 SU, & 3-3 ATS, with losses
by ½, ½, 3 pts. Rested 'Cats off to first 5-0 start since '62 (Ara Era), with QB
Bacher tossing 3 TDs vs Iowa. Dog is 14-5 ATS in NW games. Not involved.
Oklahoma 31 - Texas 30 - (12:00 - @ Dallas - ABC) -- What a match! Sooners
#1 in the nation, averaging 49.6 ppg, covering 4-of-4 by 38½ pts, & Bradford at
18/3. Steers #5 in land, averaging 47.2 ppg, covering 5-of-5 by 59 pts, with
McCoy at 16/3 (103-of-130). Okies came from 25 RYs to 217 in a week, but
'Horns own 2nd best running "D" in the land. Have to see a classic shootout.
ARMY 27 - Eastern Michigan 20 - (12:00 - ESPNC) -- These 2 both pulled off
upsets as 20-pt dogs LW. Cadets have posted 280 & 291 RYs last 2 wks, with
187 RYs & 4 TDs for Mooney vs Tulane. EM: a 192-75 pt deficit in lined gms.
BAYLOR 34 - Iowa State 24 - (7:00) -- Bears out of their element LW: 32 FDs &
594 yds, but were +37 pts ATS previous 2, behind catalyst Griffin. Cycs saw
20-0 halftime lead vs Kansas turn into 2nd consecutive wrenching loss (34-31,
35-33), & in revenge sandwich. QB Arnaud (7 TDs last 2 games) not enough.
South Carolina 20 - KENTUCKY 14 - (12:30) -- Two of the best "D"s in the land.
'Cats (#4) held 'Bama to just 1 "O" TD, on a 78-yd run (282-35 RY deficit for
UK). 'Cocks (#1) held OleMiss without a TD over the final 2½ quarters. SC
still can't run, but Smelley opened it up with stellar 327-yd, 3-TD effort vs Rebs.
BUFFALO 26 - Western Michigan 25 - (3:30) -- Five straight wins for Broncos,
with QB Hiller at 19/4 (347 PYs vs OhioU), & RB West at 574 yds. Dog the
way to go when Bulls take the field (4-0), who backdoored it in '05. A nailbiter.
Vanderbilt 20 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 10 - (2:30) -- 'Dores off to best start (5-0) in
65 years! No Nickson over last 2½ quarters vs Aub, but Adams filled in with 2
TD tosses. And check allowing zero pts over the final 48:09. Try 16 sacks for
Vandy TY. 'Dogs allowed 438, 427 yds last 2 tilts, & rank just 101st in run "O".
TEXAS A&M 37 - Kansas State 27 - (2:00) -- Vast improvement for Ags in LW's
loss to OkieSt (402-401 yd edge), with 5 TOs the key (previously owned 107th
ranked "O"). Are minus 60 pts ATS at home TY, but 'Cats are lost on the road,
allowing 46 ppg in their last 5 guest shots. And KSt in off a 626-296 yd deficit.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 38 - Temple 14 - (4:00) -- Bye week just in time for CM,
which is in off 3 consecutive grinders. Lost spread to Buffalo on 65-yd pass in
final 1:30. LeFevour leads balance attack, & run "D should stymie Owls, who've
been in every game, save PennSt. Stewart for DiMichele: 3 TDs LW. Chips!
OHIO STATE 34 - Purdue 13 - (3:30) -- Boiler QB Painter went from a 359 PY
effort vs NoDame to just 112 vs PennSt, with Sheets held to only 59 yds, after
119 RYpg previous 3. Bucks took Wisconsin in final 1:08, with Pryor the real
deal (13-of-19), & Wells churning out 168 RYs. Call it somewhere near spot.
MISSOURI 51 - Oklahoma State 34 - (7:00) -- All the respect for the Cowboys,
& their 5-0 start, while averaging 52.6 ppg. Own #1 rushing "O", #4 total "O",
with Robinson the 5th ranked passer in the land, & Hunter the 3rd best runner.
But not about to buck Tigers, & their 15-4 ATS run, behind Daniel, who is an
astounding 15/1 for the year. #2 "O", & at 43 ppg in their last 9 lined contests.
GEORGIA 27 - Tennessee 17 - (3:30) -- 'Dawgs rested off 'Bama shellacking.
Just 50 RYs (34 for Moreno, altho he is at 6.3 ypr for the season). Vols in off
amassing 9 FDs vs NoIllinois, & are at just 96 RYpg over the last 3 wks, along
with 6, 12, & 13 pts. But a solid run "D", & may just sneak in under the spot.
SO CALIFORNIA 45 - Arizona State 10 - (3:30) -- Troy QB Sanchez (13/3) is
again having knee problems, but figures to start here. Usc has allowed just 32,
71, & 60 RYs in 3 of 4 games, with only OregSt doing anything overland, with
no hope for Devil running game, which ranks 111th in the land (37.5 ypg last 2).
Sun QB Carpenter is just 8/4 for the year, & ASU on 1-8 ATS slide. Romper!
OREGON 41 - Ucla 10 - (10:15 - ABC) -- Ducks were humbled at USC, forcing
but a single punt in 44-10 setback. But OU was at 47.4 ppg before that one, &
has a score to settle here, after Uclans pitched a shutout LY. Bruin win over
WashSt not impressive. Just 28 pts vs Coogs' previous 53 ppg "D". Revenge.
MICHIGAN 30 - Toledo 10 - (12:00) -- Still no offense in Wolve arsenal, ranking
110th in the land, & in off 180-yd deficit vs Illinois. QB Threet iffy at best. Dog
is 6-0 ATS in UM tilts (5 SU upsets), but Rockets in off 3 straight losses for 1st
time in 15 yrs, & off first MAC shutout since '85. Minus 61½ pts ATS last two.
Notre Dame 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 17 - (3:30) -- 'Heels did it with smoke &
mirrors in win over UConn, as 3 picks & 3 blocked punts offset a 23-13 FD
deficit. Tars rank just 99th, overland. Irish improving by the week, with Clausen
at 622 PYs, 6 TDs, & no INTs last 2 wks. And check 17 ppg "D" last 6 games.
AUBURN 30 - Arkansas 10 - (5:00) -- Finally a chance for Tigers to light up the
scoreboard. Super "D" (#9), but no "O" (#91). And note their last 3 games
being decided by 1, 5, 2, & 1 pt SU. But Hogs have no "D", allowing 39.2 ppg
in their last 9 outings, along with a horrible 139-31 pt deficit the last 3 weeks.
NEVADA 40 - New Mexico State 20 - (4:00) -- No reason for Reno not to run all
over porous Ag run "D", which ranked dead last in the nation, before taking it
out on hapless AlcornSt. 'Pack has run for 708 yds past 2 wks, as Kaepernick
has 8 TDs & 716 yds in those 2. Just too much of a burden for Ag QB Holbrook.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 34 - Miami-Ohio 20 - (4:00) -- Huskies stand at 2-3 SU,
with their losses coming by 4, 3, & 4 pts, & their wins by 45 & 37 pts. Ouch.
Held Tennessee to 9 FDs & 225 yds, so should somewhat control Merriweather
(133 RYs LW) & Co. The pup is 13-5 ATS in Miami games, but this an NI call.
BYU 47 - NewMexico 14 - (6:00) -- Fifteen straight wins for Coogs, who won last
2 HGs by a combined 103-0 score (+67½ ATS). Hall is now at 17/4, but note
only 103 RYs vs UtahSt's 113th rush "D" LW. Lobos have run for 613 yds the
past 2 wks, but rank just #101 in total "O", & allowed 32.4 ppg pre-Wyoming.
OREGON STATE 50 - Washington State 13 - (6:30) -- Tough loss for Beavers at
Utah, but certainly have the firepower with Rodgers (287 RYs last 2 wks), &
Moevao (313 PYs vs Utes) to further extend Coog defensive futility, which now
shows a 48-10 ppg deficit in lined affairs. OSt covered first 2 HGs by 54½ pts!
Arizona 31 - STANFORD 13 - (5:00) -- Visiting series, & we agree, as the 'Cats
feature the nation's 2nd ranked "D", with Tuitama at 13/2, & Grigsby back in
style. Averaging 43.6 ppg, & covered last RG by 18 pts. Cards improved,
covering last 3 HGs by 21, 10½, & 6 pts, but QB Pritchard isn't to be trusted.
Bowling Green 27 - AKRON 22 - (6:00) -- Shocker for Falcs, in loss to EM, as
20-pt favs. Can't run (<130 yds all 5), but QB Sheehan decent. Visitor is 5-0
ATS by 107 pts in BG games. Zips ran only on hapless Syracuse, so BG call.
KENT STATE 26 - Ohio U 23 - (2:30) -- Still no covers for Flashes, who are on an
0-11-1 ATS run, by 146½ pts, but by just a single pt in their last 2 outing. Are
suddenly potent: 432 RYs last 2 wks, behind do-everything QB Edelman. OU's
formerly solid run "O" at just 97 RYpg in lined games. QB Jackson or nothing.
CINCINNATI 30 - Rutgers 17 - (12:00) -- Anderson for Pike for Grutza at QB for
Bearcats: 2 TDs vs Marshall, with a run "D" that has contained all but mighty
Oklahoma. Contrast that to Knights, who rank 82nd both in rushing "O" & "D",
& who are minus 122½ pts ATS in 11 of their last 12 regular season contests.
KANSAS 41 - Colorado 17 - (12:30) -- Time for Jays to explode. Sleepwalked
thru 1st half vs IowaSt (20-0 deficit), before pulling out 35-33 win. Reesing at
14/3, & is at 70%. Buff QB Hawkins just 30-of-69 past 2 wks, & check CU with
124, 135, & 120 RY deficits last 3 contests. Fourth straight killer takes its toll.
WISCONSIN 24 - Penn State 22 - (8:00 - ABC) -- We keep writing about it, so
why not again? Superbly balanced Lions now at 1,628 RYs & 1,463 PYs, with
659 RYs for Royster, & a sweet 9/1 for Clark. Badgers in off Bielema's first
home loss (now 16-1), by merest of margins. A 220-78 pt edge in last 6 HGs.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 31 - Central Florida 13 - (3:45) -- Yes, we know that the 'Canes
are an incredible minus 250½ pts ATS in their last 29 games, & fresh off a RY
deficit of 281-51 vs FlaSt. Rank 99th on "O", & QB Marve a huge question.
But CF managed only 280 yds vs land's worst "D" LW (SMU). Greco not enuff.
Boise State 31 - SO MISSISSIPPI 27 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Eagles 0-2 in C-USA for
1st time in league's 13-yr history, despite a 272 RY (Fletcher: 260), & 264 PY
showing vs Utep. The Broncos not normally at their best on non-division road,
but upset Oregon in last RG. Moore: 5 TDs & 711 PYs in his 2 starts thus far.
UTEP 45 - Tulane 33 - (9:00) -- Wave just can't handle solid chalk role. Are in off
monumental 51-pt ATS loss to Army. Owned #9 run "D", before 291 in that
one. Miner QB Vittatoe: 4 TD passes in upset of SoMiss (7 last 2 wks): 2nd
straight win off 9 losses. Covered last HG by 50½ pts. Should be a wild one.
Air Force 40 - SAN DIEGO STATE 20 - (9:30) -- That's right: 569 RYs for the
Falcons in LY's 55-23 wipeout of the Aztecs. AF in off a pair of tough losses
(had 2 punts blocked for TDs vs Mids), & quick shot at recovery. SDSt can't
run it, nor stop the run. Came from >600 yds to just 85 in a week. Only way.
FRESNO STATE 51 - Idaho 17 - (10:00) -- Fast chance for Bulldogs to take out
frustrations off tough loss to Hawaii (6 TOs, with 3 Brandstater INTs). Not the
best of run defense lately (234 ypr last 3), but the Vandals are helpless. Minus
106½ ATS so far TY, on 1-13 ATS run, & allowing 43 ppg in last 21 lined affairs.
HAWAII 24 - Louisiana Tech 23 - (12:05) -- Tech remembers LYs heartwrenching
loss, but despite a decent run "D" (#19: held MissSt, Kansas, & Boise to 116
RYpg), they have a 174-23 pt deficit in their last 4 RGs. 'Bows in off rare win,
with 6 takeaways the key, but note allowing 522 yds to Fresno. Not involved.
ADDED GAMES
Ball State 41 - WESTERN KY 13
ARKANSAS ST 38 - La-Monroe 20
FLA INTERN'AL 21 - Mid Tenn St 17
La-Lafayette 37 - NO TEXAS 13
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2008 8:04pm -
0 likes
Pointwise NFL
DALLAS over Arizona RATING: 2
BALTIMORE over Indianapolis RATING: 3
SAN DIEGO over New England RATING: 4
HOUSTON over Miami RATING: 5
SEATTLE over Green Bay RATING: 5
Dallas 31 - ARIZONA 19 - (4:15) -- Matchup of old NFC East squads. Cowboys
a game back of the Giants, along with the 'Skins. Are loaded, talentwise, but
just a 2-8 spread play of late. But a closer look shows the visitor at 5-0 ATS (by
43½ pts) when Dallas takes the field. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys hold a
55-26 pt edge away from their home park thus far. Have the 2nd best "O" in
the NFL, with Romo at 11/5, & Jones in off a 10.7 ypr effort. Cards: 4 takeaways
in 41-17 rout of previously unbeaten Bills, with Warner now at 10/4. Dallas is
28-14 ATS as RFs of <7½ pts. Cards are 4-11 ATS at home off win of 7+ pts.
INDIANAPOLIS 20 - Baltimore 19 - (1:00) -- Miracle win & cover for Colts LW,
with 3 TDs in final 4:04 (68-yd fumble return, & TD off fumble). Indy still being
mauled, overland, with RY deficits of 183-53, 180-25, 236-114, & 156-79, so
this can't be that easy, as the Ravens have FD edges of 21-8, 21-11, 16-11, &
22-14 thus far. Two straight 3-pt losses for Balt, after a 45-20 pt edge in its
first 2 games. The visitor is 6-0 both SU & ATS in Colt games lately, & with the
Ravens ranking 3rd in rushing "O", as well as 1st in overall "D", they are worth
a long look. Baltimore is 13-7 ATS off scoring 14 pts or less. Down to the wire.
SAN DIEGO 29 - New England 15 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Triple revenge shot for the
Chargers, who not only lost to the Pats during the '07 regular season, but also
in the '06 & '07 playoffs. May have been peeking a bit to this one, in LW's 17-
10 loss to the Dolphins, as they had averaged 34.5 ppg in their first 4 games.
And note a current 11-3 ATS run for SD, with 1 of those misses by a single pt.
The Pats are on a 2-8 ATS run, reaching 20 pts in just 1 of their last 5 outings.
A solid showing at SanFran, but Chargers are another matter. They are 13-4
ATS off a SU loss, as well as 16-6 ATS off being upset. Grab this "must-win".
HOUSTON 27 - Miami 17 - (1:00) -- Incredible loss for Texans LW, after leading
27-10 with 4:05 left, with 2 Rosenfels (for ailing Schaub) fumbles the culprits.
Two straight for oncoming Dolphs, behind 238 RYs from Brown, with Chad a
brilliant 39-of-49 in those 2 (37½ & 13½ pt covers). And they catch Houston
off 3 division games. But Texans averaging 31 ppg in last 6 hosters, with
Schaub's return ensuring a continuation. Miami is 14-25 ATS off a SU dog
win, while Houston is 17-10 ATS off a loss of <11 pts. Texans also 8-2 ATS off
a division game vs a foe off 2 wins. And Kubiak is 7-1 home vs a foe off a win.
SEATTLE 33 - Green Bay 23 - (4:15) -- Now or never for the Seahawks, who
have a huge score to settle with the Packers, who administered a 42-20 playoff
pounding LY. As usual, home/away dichotomy in Seattle contests is firmly
entrenched. In their 2 RGs, the 'Hawks have a 78-16 pt deficit, but are at 34.2
ppg in their last 5 hosters. And the homer is 31-13 ATS in their last 44 games.
Rodgers (shoulder) played for the Pack vs Atlanta, but a crucial INT did them
in. Sure, McCarthy is 8-1 ATS vs opponents off a SU non-division loss, but
have to see Seattle taking advantage of 26th rated Packer defense. Revenge.
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Oakland 24 - (1:00) -- Raider bye week came at a good
time, as they blew 9-pt & 12-pt 4th quarter leads in their previous 2 games. As
a matter of fact, they were outscored 28-3 by the Bills, in their last outing. So
they've actually been in their past 3 games. The way to go thus far, is with the
visitor in Oakland games, as the guest is 4-0 ATS by 53½ pts. Third straight
HG for the Saints, who are in off Monday Nighter. At least 23 pts in each of
their last 9 games, but also 28.5 ppg in last 6 contests. Raiders 21-12 ATS as
RDs off 2 losses, while Saints are 0-10 ATS Oct HFs vs a foe off SU/ATS loss.
NEW YORK JETS 26 - Cincinnati 23 - (1:00) -- The man is something. No less
than 6 TD passes for Favre before Jet bye week. That's a career-high for him,
& ties him with Joe Namath for most ever by a Jet. Now 12/4 for the season.
Chance for NY to make a legitimate move with Cincy, Oakland, KC run. But
the Bengals shouldn't go down easily, as they've covered their last 2 RGs by
10½ & 7 pts, altho they do have an 855-385 RY deficit so far. Dog is 12-2 ATS
in Cincy games (10 upsets), & the guest is 7-2 ATS in NY tilts. Jets 1-9 ATS
in Oct vs non-division foes off a pair of losses. Despite Cincy's Dallas-Pitt SW.
TAMPA BAY 20 - Carolina 13 - (1:00) -- As we've written many times, we rarely
stray from the Bucs at home. And this year is no exception, as they've paid off
by 8 & 7½ pts in their 2 hosting opportunities to date. Garcia for Griese (shoulder),
& he was a nice 13-of-17 in that push. Panthers took full advantage of
the anemic Chiefs LW, in 34-0 blowout (441-127 yd edge), which boosts an
"O" which was ranked just 23rd at gametime. Check Williams with 123 RYs &
3 TDs. But Bucs are 9-1 ATS in the 1st of 2 HGs, vs an opponent off a pair of
wins, as well as 24-13 ATS off a loss of 3 pts or less. Tampa, as division host.
MINNESOTA 34 - Detroit 10 - (1:00) -- Yes, we know that the 14-pt opening line
on this one seems juicy, especially with the Vikes coming in off a Monday Night
appointment. But backing the Lions is a quick trip to the poor house. Check
their current 1-11 SU run, as well a their 2-10 ATS slide. They've been stung
for 35.9 ppg in their last 10 outings, & are simply worse by the week. Can't
run, & can't stop the run (720-281 RY deficit), or anything else. Orlovsky for
Kitna LW, but no matter. Minny nothing special (1-6 ATS), but the fav is 4-0 in
Viking games this year, & they are 5-0-1 ATS in this series of late. Poor Lions.
Chicago 24 - ATLANTA 16 - (1:00) -- Bears sit atop the NFC Central, with their
fine early season play. They've been a very profitable play of late (+99 pts ATS
in their last 8 games), with Orton certainly earning his stripes. Threw for 324
yds & 2 TDs vs the inept Lions (no INTs). Couple of ointment flies, of course,
not the least of which is the success of the pup in Bear games of late: 6-1-1
ATS, as well as the fact that the host is 5-1 ATS in Falcon contests. Turner
now at 543 RYs, with Ryan 4/3 for the year. But Falcon "D": 28 ppg last 12.
Atlanta 4-19 ATS hosting winning teams, & 11-24 ATS off a win of 3 pts or less.
WASHINGTON 36 - St Louis 13 - (1:00) -- Would love to jump on the 15 pt line
posted here, but it makes little sense. Like the aforementioned Lions, you need
only look at the Rams' dismal record, namely a 3-16-1 spread log, while failing
to reach 17 pts on 14 occasions since LY, while allowing 38.4 ppg over their
last 7 outings. For example, they led Buffalo 14-6: lost 31-14. Four straight
wins & covers for the 'Skins, with a 649-273 RY edge in those 4. Portis: 266
RYs last 2 weeks (vs Dallas & Philly, no less), & Campbell a force. Rams are
10-22 ATS away vs winning teams, while 'Skins on 8-2 ATS run. Over early.
DENVER 24 - Jacksonville 19 - (4:05) -- Finally a bit of a defensive showing for
the Broncos, who entered their game with the Bucs, off allowing 38, 32, & 33
pts. But just a single TD by Tampa, altho Denver was outrushed at home for
the 1st time. The Broncos are averaging 31 ppg in their last 6 hosters, & rank
#1 in the NFL in total "O". The 'Ville in off being manhandled by Pitt: 415-213
yd & 28-14 FD deficits, altho the Jags did have the lead entering the final 2
minutes. Last 4 J'Ville games have been decided by 4, 2, 3, & 5 pts, so more
of the same here. Broncos 25-15 ATS at home with line between -3 & +3 pts.
Philadelphia 30 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 - (4:15) -- Call similar score to LW's Pat/
49er contest. Check the overwhelming stat advantage of the Patriots: 25-12
FD, & 377-199 yd edges. O'Sullivan: 3 TDs, but also 3 INTs; Gore: from 212
RYs to just 54. This is 3rd of 6 grinders for SanFran, but the Eagles enter this
one off no less than 4 wars, losing the last 2. And note just a FG over the final
52:47 vs the 'Skins (203-58 RY deficit). Thus, a quick chance for redemption,
as well as a return to the right track. The Niners are 2-8 ATS off scoring >20
pts, & losing, & are 12-21 ATS off a spread loss as a dog. Philly bounceback.
Dallas 31 - ARIZONA 19 - (4:15) -- Matchup of old NFC East squads. Cowboys
a game back of the Giants, along with the 'Skins. Are loaded, talentwise, but
just a 2-8 spread play of late. But a closer look shows the visitor at 5-0 ATS (by
43½ pts) when Dallas takes the field. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys hold a
55-26 pt edge away from their home park thus far. Have the 2nd best "O" in
the NFL, with Romo at 11/5, & Jones in off a 10.7 ypr effort. Cards: 4 takeaways
in 41-17 rout of previously unbeaten Bills, with Warner now at 10/4. Dallas is
28-14 ATS as RFs of <7½ pts. Cards are 4-11 ATS at home off win of 7+ pts.
MONDAY
New York Giants 34 - CLEVELAND 13 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- These 2 sure had
classic all-out wars in the old NFL days. Obviously, they are miles apart now, as
the Giants continue to impress. A 523-187 yd edge over Seattle LW, with a 7.1
ypr showing. Eli? Try 65-of-97 the last 3 games. NY has won its last twelve
away games, & is 13-2 ATS away. Brown "D" has held 7 of last 8 opponents <20
pts, but Anderson is just 3/6 for the year. NY is 11-2 away off a SU win of at least
14 pts, while the Browns are 10-16 ATS off a win. Giants rank in the top 8 in all 8
major stat categories, while Cleveland checks in with the worst "O" in the NFL
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2008 8:06pm -
0 likes
THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
MINNESOTA Plus over Illinois
WESTERN MICHIGAN by 8 over Buffalo
VANDERBILT by 12 over Mississippi State
OREGON STATE by 39 over Washington State
Minnesota 30 - ILLINOIS 31—Illinois could be caught in an emotional
trough after destruction of Michigan in Ann Arbor last week. Minnesota has
covered 4 straight and had its starting OL intact for the first time this season
against Indiana, and Gopher defense is among most improved units in the
country with infusion of jucos and leadership & preparation provided by new d.c.
Ted Roof. Minny got a little dinged-up against the Hoosiers, but QB Adam
Weber (bruised knee) and WR Steve Decker (knee to head) both returned to Indy game
and are expected to be ready to go. TV-ESPN
(07-Ill. 44-MINN. 17...I.27-18 I.50/448 M.31/95 M.21/35/1/242 I.14/21/1/207 I.1 M.0)
(07-Illinois -11' 44-17...SR: Minnesota 31-27-3)
Western Michigan 34 - BUFFALO 26—Highly-regarded HC Turner Gill
(9-3 vs. spread last 12) has energized moribund Buffalo program and turned
Bulls into one of MAC’s top contenders. Well-schooled WMU still has a lot more
speed & depth on defense, however. No big surprise if Broncos’ cocksure jr.
QB Hiller (69%, 19 TDP & only 4 ints.) outduels careful UB sr. counterpart Willy
(only 3 ints. in last 12 games) and extends WMU win streak to six. (05-WESTERN
MICHIGAN -10' 31-21...SR: Western Michigan 3-0)
Vanderbilt 24 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 12—Though sizzling Vandy (1st
5-0 start since 1943!) is SEC road chalk for only 2nd time since ‘99, won’t buck
bowl-hungry ‘Dores, who held Auburn scoreless for final 3 Qs of impressive 14-
13 upset in Nashville. MSU’s QB Lee (in his starting debut) likely to make a few
miscues vs. Vandy’s ball-hawking 2ndary (11 ints.), while Bulldog stop unit has
hands full with either Vandy triggerman QB Nickson (see Special Ticker) or
dual-threat Adams. (DNP...SR: Mississippi State 10-7-2)
OREGON STATE 42 - Washington State 3—New Wazzu HC Wulff
could be excused for asking Congress for some extra bailout help to aid his
kittenish Cougars, who have little chance of avoiding embarrassment vs.
competent opposition (of which OSU certainly qualifies) with shaky 3rd-string,
RS frosh QB Lobbestael learning on the job. A lot more going for Beavers, who
narrowly missed scoring second straight major upset (at Utah) and who usually
take care of business at Corvallis (8-2 vs line last 10).
(07-Ore. St. 52-WASH. ST. 17...18-18 O.49/218 W.30/83 W.21/46/7/314 O.17/30/0/213 O.0 W.1)
(07-Osu +3 52-17 06-Wsu -3 13-6 05-OSU -1' 44-33...SR: Washington State 47-42-3)
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9
*WAKE FOREST 23 - Clemson 16—Each team had last week off to try to
shake any lingering effects from discouraging home losses in previous game.
Edge to Clemson’s speedy cast of offensive skill performers, as Wake RB Josh
Adams (953 YR & 12 TDs in 2007, just 151 & 2 TY) mired in soph slump so far.
Still, rebuilt Tiger OL keeping sr. QB Harper (just 3 TDP) from recapturing LY’s
form, too. Deacons’ opportunistic defense & special teams (nation-leading 52
takeaways last 1+ seasons!) tip scales in favor of host. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-CLEM. 44-W. For. 10...C.25-21 C.34/145 W.37/83 C.27/36/0/266 W.24/35/1/204 C.0 W.0)
(07-CLEM. -9' 44-10 06-Clem. -16 27-17 05-WFU +6' 31-27...SR: Clemson 56-16-1)
*HOUSTON 45 - Uab 32—Scary matchup for depth-shy UAB defense
(allowing 466 ypg), as there’s little doubt prolific Houston’s quick-trigger soph
QB Keenum (68%, 19 TDP & only 5 ints.) will shred poor-covering Blazer
secondary. Cougs (no covers last 6 as favorite) also frequently find it hard to get
stops, however, so visitor should have enough weapons to hang if versatile but
TO-prone jr. QB Webb avoids giveaways.
(07-Houston 49-UAB 10...H.33-12 H.59/335 U.18/26 H.21/34/0/205 U.12/34/4/198 H.1 U.0)
(07-Houston -13 49-10...SR: UAB 4-2)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10
*Louisville 31 - MEMPHIS 30—Tigers have won 3 straight behind rapidlymaturing
juco QB Arkelon Hall (4 TDP last week). Louisville defense improved
under new coordinator Ron English, while vulnerable Memphis stop unit
(allowing 5 ypc last 1+ seasons) will have to stack box against juking Card RS
frosh RB Victor Anderson (390 YR on 8 ypc, 5 TDs in last 3 games). But major
edge to host’s deep, experienced cast of WRs (five already have at least 1
TDC). TV—ESPN (DNP...SR: Louisville 22-18)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11
East Carolina 24 - VIRGINIA 23—Beleaguered Cavalier HC Groh certainly
not out of the woods at Charlottesville, but can’t ignore possible buy signs for
UVa during last week’s shutout home win over inconsistent Maryland. New QB
soph Verica gaining confidence, oft-injured top RB sr. Peerman is healthy, and
disappointing Cav defense discovering some machismo. Veteran ECU’s
psyche a little fragile, as two straight losses have put the kibosh on earlyseason
BCS buzz.
(06-EAST CAROLINA -6' 31-21...SR: East Carolina 2-0)
WEST VIRGINIA 37 - Syracuse 17—Underrated Mountaineer defense will
hold sway in this game. Still, sputtering WV offense (only 17 ppg in first 4 vs.
FBS foes!) currently pales in comparison to LY’s juggernaut attack that racked
up 40 ppg. Woebegone Syracuse might get just enough out of improving sr. QB
Dantley (6 TDP) & now-healthy sr. RB Brinkley (264 YR in last 2 games) to hang
inside big spread.
(07-W. Va. 55-SYR. 14...W.25-11 W.54/251 S.37/94 W.18/21/0/235 S.6/16/2/108 W.0 S.1)
(07-Wva -27 55-14 06-WVA -25' 41-17 05-Wva +2 15-7...SR: Syracuse 30-25)
INDIANA 21 - Iowa 20—Both of these teams are reeling from 3 straight
losses. Favor QB edge held by Indiana’s Kellen Lewis over Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi.
Hawkeye RB Shonn Greene has 316 YR in his last 2 games, but just 1 TD to
show for it. Conversely, Hoosier speed-merchant RB Thigpen has 4 scores in
the last 2 games, with 3 of those covering more than 70 yards.
(07-Ind. 38-IOWA 20...Ia.22-17 Ia.37/120 In.35/73 In.19/26/1/322 Ia.24/42/1/308 In.1 Ia.1)
(07-Indiana +10 38-20 06-INDIANA +19 31-28 05-IOWA -16 38-21...SR: Iowa 39-26-4
Michigan State 24 - NORTHWESTERN 23—Michigan State RB Ringer was
slowed down by Iowa, and Northwestern defense isn’t bad (3.4 ypc). Wildcats
had a week off to get star RB Sutton near 100%, and QB C.J. Bacher threw for
525 yds. & 5 TDs with 5 ints. against the Spartans last season. NW has covered
last 4 in series, and MSU defense showed some vulnerability on the road this
season, yielding 38 at Cal and 29 at Indiana. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-N’w’rn 48-MSU 41 (OT)...N.29-20 M.32/287 N.34/91 N.38/49/0/520 M.17/31/0/194 N.0 M.0)
(07-Nwu +16 48-41 (OT) 06-Msu -8 41-38 05-Nwu +13 49-14...SR: Michigan State 32-16)
Oklahoma 35 - Texas 22—Early reports indicate penetrating DT DeMarcus
Granger & emerging RS frosh DE Frank Alexander are expected to return to
practice to strengthen the OU defense, so prefer to side with Sooners in battle
of potent unbeatens (both SU & vs. the spread). Both teams get excellent
QBing, but the more established running game and more experienced
secondary of Oklahoma appear to be the biggest edges in this edition of the
Red River Rivalry. OU’s offseason change to a no-huddle attack figures to be
a plus vs. athletic—but young—Longhorn DBs. (at Dallas, TX) TV—ABC
(07-Okla. 28-Texas 21...O.20-16 O.41/170 T.29/61 T.19/26/1/324 O.21/32/0/244 O.0 T.1)
(07-Okla. -12 28-21 06-Tex. -3' 28-10 05-Tex. -14 45-12 all at Dal...SR: Texas 57-40-5)
ARMY 30 - Eastern Michigan 20—Both these long-suffering sides off upset
road wins last week. Army’s new triple-option attack (571 YR last 2 games!)
keeps caissons rolling along for Black Knights and sends defense-shy EMU
(permitted 17 rush TDs in its last 5!) back to drawing board.
(DNP...SR: Army 1-0)
*BAYLOR 27 - Iowa State 26—ISU is 8-4 as a dog under Gene Chizik, who
has developed considerable balance and confidence with his young offense.
But the defense (34, 35 points last two games) is tending to give up points in
bunches—not a good trait vs. BU’s talented Mr. Griffin. Will lean to host SU, but
won’t lay many points.
(05-Baylor +8 23-13...SR: Iowa State 4-3)
South Carolina 24 - KENTUCKY 17—USC confidence restored in SEC
(snapped 6-game conference losing streak) with 31-24 victory at Ole Miss. So,
favor ‘Cock squad that came alive behind QB Smelley (career-best 327 yds. vs.
Rebels), who hit 9 different receivers, including previously-injured WR
McKinley. UK’s still-developing QB Hartline generates few “explosive plays†vs.
tenacious Carolina stop unit, especially with ‘Cocks lock-down CB Captain
Munnerlyn shadowing his favorite target WR Lyons.
07-S. CAR. 38-Ky. 23...K.26-18 K.38/157 S.36/86 S.17/30/0/256 K.23/40/1/227 S.1 K.3)
(07-USC -4 38-23 06-Usc -4' 24-17 05-USC -12' 44-16...SR: South Carolina 12-6-1)
Utah 37 - WYOMING 6—Although Joe Glenn ditched his recent Wyo QB
merry-go-round last week at Albuquerque (last year’s starter Sween went all the
way vs. Lobos, as opposed to the 4 who took snaps previous week vs. Bowling
Green), it didn’t help woebegone Cowboys, who were blanked and now haven’t
covered a game in 13 months (0-13-1 vs. line last 14!). And doubt Kyle
Whittingham will show any mercy, recalling Glenn’s “one-fingered salute†to
Utes during LY’s 50-0 Utah romp.
(07-UTAH 50-Wyo. 0...U.22-12 U.51/278 W.30/37 U.19/32/1/227 W.13/32/2/85 U.0 W.3)
(07-UTAH -13' 50-0 06-WYOMING +3' 31-15 05-UTAH -3 43-13...SR: Utah 48-32-1)
Kansas State 31 - TEXAS A&M 30—Each team should be able to exploit the
other’s porous defense after A&M gave up 56 points last week at Oklahoma
State and K-State gave up 58 vs. Texas Tech! A&M defense is lacking in
speed, while Wildcats still have tackling problems, even after HC Prince has
replaced half his starters with some prized newcomers.
(05-Texas A&M -5 30-28...SR: Texas A&M 8-4)
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 24 - Temple 19—Temple apparently found a stopgap
solution to QB Adam DiMichele’s injury with RS frosh Chester Stewart
stepping up to throw 3 TDPs in upset at Miami-O., despite missing practice
during the week due to a sore ankle. Owl defense has toughened up since
DiMichele was hurt, allowing just 17 points in 2 games, and Temple is 4-1-1 vs.
the number this season, 17-9-1 against the points last 27, and 11-3-1 last 15 vs.
MAC teams under HC Al Golden. CMU QB LeFevour always dangerous, but
Owls playing with purpose. (06-Central Michigan -19 42-26...SR: Central Michigan 1-0)
OHIO STATE 42 - Purdue 16—The Terrelle Pryor era is well underway at
Ohio State, while vet Purdue star QB Curtis Painter appears to be on thin ice
with lame duck HC Joe Tiller after being pulled last week against Penn State.
Pryor’s multi-dimensional qualities and return to health of Buckeye RB Beanie
Wells (274 total YR vs. Minny & Wisconsin) could overwhelm Boilermaker
defense that ranks 108th. Purdue has dropped 6 of last 7 spread decisions.
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-Ohio St. 23-PURDUE 7...O.20-15 O.45/181 P.17/4 P.31/60/0/268 O.17/29/3/200 O.0 P.1)
(07-Ohio State -7 23-7...SR: Ohio State 36-12-2)
Tcu 28 - COLORADO STATE 10—To its credit, CSU has thus far endured
fewer growing pains under new HC Fairchild than MWC sources envisioned.
But the fun could end vs. TCU and its swarming, top-rated defense (only 209
ypg!) that has throttled Rams in recent meetings. Expect Frogs to stonewall RB
G. Johnson and keep CSU QB Farris on the run, and Gary Patterson very comfy
with fact he can win with two QBs (former starter Jackson effective in relief of
soph Dalton in last week’s romp past SDSU).
(07-TCU 24-Colo. St. 12...T.23-16 T.48/201 C.28/55 C.21/39/3/216 T.16/32/0/197 T.2 C.0)
(07-TCU -10 24-12 06-Tcu -9' 45-14 05-TCU -7 33-6...SR: TCU 4-1)
*MISSOURI 48 - Oklahoma State 30—In a shootout, don’t mind siding with
host, which also has the most guns. Mizzou has scored in 19 of 20 Qs TY, and
the Tigers have now gone 49 straight possessions with no three-and-outs. MU
never punted last week at Nebraska. Yes, OSU has scored 56 ppg its last four,
but the Cowboys have yet to face a tough foe on the road. MU 12-3 last 15 when
favored, and HC Pinkel says this is his best OL in Columbia. CABLE TV—
ESPN (05-Missouri -4' 38-31...SR: Missouri 27-21)
GEORGIA 31 - Tennessee 13—Following disappointing 41-30 Athens loss
vs. Bama, pumped-up, rested UGA likely to continue its superior play following
a bye week (6-1 vs. spread last 7 in scheduling spot) in double-revenge game
vs. UT. Dawgs efficient QB Stafford (60%, 7 TDs, 1 int.) owns enormous edge
over Vols untested 6-4 soph QB Stephens (just 1 TD vs. Northern Ill.),
inadequately supported by sagging ground game mustering a scant 69 yds. vs.
Huskies. If UGA’s star RB Moreno able to go (check status), Richt’s squad pulls
away from still-troubled, offensively-stagnant UT (1 meaningful TD in two SEC
games). TV—CBS
(07-TENN. 35-Ga. 14...T.21-14 T.44/190 G.25/69 T.18/23/0/221 G.16/34/1/174 T.0 G.0)
(07-TENN. +1' 35-14 06-Tenn. -2' 51-33 05-Ga. +3 27-14...SR: Tennessee 20-15-2)
SOUTHERN CAL 41 - Arizona State 10—If Dennis Erickson looks more
bewildered than Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson these days, it’s because the
once-potent ASU “O†has lost its compass, with poor OL play and absence of
credible infantry diversion grounding Sun Devil attack (just 14.7 ppg last 3
losses). And now ASU might be minus sr. QB Carpenter after he left Berkeley
on crutches last week. That’s hardly a recipe for success vs. hungry SC eager
to ascend polls. TV—ABC
(07-S. Cal 44-ARIZ. ST. 24...S.25-16 S.37/133 A.35/16 S.26/40/0/375 A.22/31/0/243 S.0 A.1)
(07-Usc -3 44-24 06-USC -19 28-21 05-Usc -15 38-28...SR: Southern Cal 15-9)
*OREGON 30 - Ucla 20—Although UCLA’s win over Wazzu was about as
exciting as watching C-SPAN during recent bailout debate, Bruins at least
displaying a bit more competence on offensive end as sage o.c. Chow works
around the limitations of juco QB Craft. Meanwhile, Mike Bellotti might have a
fuller deck to utilize at QB if former starter Roper returns to active duty, as
expected, but DeWayne Walker’s quick-footed Westwood defense is
constructed better than most to deal with UO spread.
(07-UCLA 16-Oregon 0...O.12-10 U.51/156 O.39/43 O.11/39/3/105 U.4/17/2/64 U.0 O.1)
(07-UCLA +1' 16-0 06-OREGON -9' 30-20...SR: UCLA 39-22)
MICHIGAN 37 - Toledo 13—Michigan responded with wins after each of its
first two losses, and expect Rich Rodriguez to elicit a solid effort from his
Wolverines after Illinois humiliated his defense in homecoming game at the Big
House. Certainly, the Michigan spread should find some holes in shoddy
Toledo defense that yielded 41 ppg against Ball St., FIU, Fresno and Arizona.
Rockets have dropped 11 of last 12 visiting non-conference opponents.
(FIRST MEETING)
NORTH CAROLINA 34 - Notre Dame 23—Acknowledge recent Irish uptick.
Lights going on for blue-chip soph QB Clausen (622 YP, 6 TDP & no ints. last
2 games), and improved defense permitting only 19 ppg. However, inclined to
make Domers prove it on road, where they fell by DDs at Mich. State in only trip
so far. Athletic Carolina stop unit has 11 ints. in last 4 games, and soph
Draughn (109 YR last week) an emerging ground complement to Tar Heels’ topnotch
WR corps. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(06-NOTRE DAME -25 46-25...SR: Notre Dame 16-1)
*AUBURN 30 - Arkansas 7—Though disgruntled Auburn mentor Tuberville
promised to make “immediate changes†following discouraging 14-13 loss at
Vandy, still must “lay it†vs. mistake-prone Arkansas (-8 TO margin), which has
been outscored 139-31 in 3 SEC losses so far. Just a hunch, but no surprise
if Tigers de-emphasize the spread and revert back to their tried and true ground
assault vs. Hogs frosh-laden front 7 (dead last in SEC rushing defense).
Meanwhile, floundering Arkansas attack (two meaningful TDs last 3 games)
gets stuffed by nasty Tiger defense (11 ppg).
(07-Aub. 9-ARK. 7...Au.21-11 Au.53/189 Ar.25/67 Ar.13/27/1/126 Au.13/23/0/101 Au.1 Ar.0)
(07-Aub. +3 9-7 06-Ark. +15 27-10 05-Aub. -7' 34-17...SR: Auburn 10-6-1)
NEVADA 52 - New Mexico State 27—Now that Nevada “Pistol†firing live
ammunition once more (1127 yards and 49 ppg the last two weeks!), Wolf Pack
and hot QB Kaepernick quite capable of extending margin. Besides, there are
more dimensions to Pistol (7th in national rush stats) than offered by QB
Holbrook and Hal Mumme’s one-dimensional NMSU Air Raid, which hasn’t
traveled well (Aggies only 5-13 as road dog since ‘05). Note how Pistol has
tallied 45 ppg last 3 in series, and how Chris Ault’s teams usually take care of
business as Reno chalk (13-2 in role since ‘04!).
(07-Nev. 40-NMS 38...Nm.29-23 Nv.47/285 Nm.30/103 Nm.35/49/0/407 Nv.15/28/1/237 Nv. 1 Nm.1)
(07-Nevada -6' 40-38 06-NEVADA -17' 48-21 05-Nevada -9' 48-24...SR: Nevada 10-1)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 28 - Miami-Ohio 13—With NI feeding off competitive
13-9 loss at Tennessee, don’t mind laying it vs. still-meandering Miami, a
bankroll-depleting 1-7 vs. spread last 8 on board. RedHawks pedestrian attack
(10 ppg vs. FBS squads) makes no headway vs. hard-hitting, sr.-laden Huskie
defense permitting just 1 TD over last 13 Qs! Miami’s soft-covering 2ndary only
1 “pick†last 4 games.
(06-N. Illinois -13' 28-25 05-N. ILLINOIS -3 38-27...SR: Miami-Ohio 7-5)
*BYU 27 - New Mexico 12—We’re not expecting any hiccups from BYU as it
continues on course in BCS quest. But quirky series trends vs. New Mexico
(host team has failed to cover last 6 meetings) and incestuous nature of rivalry
vs. Lobos (Bronco Mendenhall once served on Rocky Long’s UNM staff) make us reluctant
to lay significant number, especially with TCU showdown just 5 days hence for Cougs. Scaled-back
Lobo “O†(backup QB Gruner mostly handing off these days) can slow pace and keep UNM within
earshot.
(07-Byu 31-N. MEX. 24...B.21-16 N.36/115 B.43/112 B.18/40/1/251 N.20/38/2/231 B.1 N.3)
(07-Byu -4 31-24 06-BYU -26' 42-17 05-Byu +7' 27-24...SR: BYU 42-14-1)
Arizona 24 - STANFORD 22—Mike Stoops not taking any prisoners in quest
to save his job (UA win margin 38 ppg!). But Wildcats cruising through with
much easier schedule than Stanford, which is 2-0 SU at home. RB Gerhart
gives Cardinal valuable balance on offense.
(07-Stan. 21-ARIZ. 20...S.21-20 A.32/130 S.45/96 A.28/41/1/238 S.19/27/2/181 S.1 A.1)
(07-Stanford +13 21-20 06-Arizona -3' 20-7 05-Stanford +4' 20-16...SR: Arizona 13-10)
*Bowling Green 35 - AKRON 28—BG QB Tyler Sheehan has completed 47
of 69 passes for 584 yds., 4 TDs and no ints. the last 2 games, and expect HC
Gregg Brandon to have Falcons primed after their shocking loss at home to
20½-point dog Eastern Michigan. Akron QB Chris Jacquemain has gotten
sloppy the last month, throwing 8 ints. in last 4 games; Zips’ run game has
deserted them (162 yards in last 2 games).
(07-B. GREEN 44-Akron 20...B.28-25 A.46/243 B.38/216 B.27/37/0/301 A.14/31/2/192 B.0 A.2)
(07-BGU -6' 44-20 06-AKRON -8 35-28 05-Akron +14 24-14...SR: Bowling Green 9-7)
Ohio 30 - KENT STATE 21—Kent HC Doug Martin’s crew is 4-17 vs. the
number last 21 on the line and and 1-12 SU last 13, so see little percentage in
backing Flashes. Ohio U. just 1-5 SU this season, but Frank Solich’s bunch has
just 1 spread loss in ‘08, and QB Boo Jackson has 9 TDP in 4 games since
taking over as starter for the injured Theo Scott.
(07-Kent St. 33-OHIO 25...K.25-16 K.50/233 O.30/88 O.22/40/2/271 K.12/25/0/169 K.0 O.0)
(07-Ksu -2' 33-25 06-Ohio +6' 17-7 05-OHIO -4 35-32...SR: Ohio 37-21-2)
CINCINNATI 30 - Rutgers 17—Despite hanging tough at West Virginia last
week, regressing Rutgers has to be discouraged by its 1-4 start (only win over
Morgan State). Much prefer more cohesive Cincy, as crafty HC Kelly (27-10-3
vs. line since 2005!) continues to push the right buttons. Yes, Bearcats down
to third-string QB. But experience the only edge struggling Scarlet Knight sr.
signal caller Teel has on resourceful RS frosh counterpart Chazz Anderson (2
TDP, 1 TDR in win at Marshall).
(07-Cincy 28-RUT. 23...R.24-22 C.40/150 R.43/98 R.22/38/3/334 C.20/37/1/257 C.2 R.1)
(07-Cincy +3' 28-23 06-CINCY +6' 30-11 05-RUTGERS -13' 44-9...SR: Rutgers 7-5-1)
TEXAS TECH 56 - Nebraska 27—Nebraska HC Bo Pelini has taken the
blame for last week’s 52-17 loss to Missouri, apologizing to his team and the
state of Nebraska. But he better hold up on the self-flagellation until he is able
to add more talent to his defense, especially the secondary. TT marksman
Graham Harrell (6 TDP in 3 Qs last week at K-State) should attack with repeated
success, especially with RBs Woods & Batch providing more punch TY. (05-Texas
Tech -4 34-31...SR: Nebraska 7-2)
KANSAS 34 - Colorado 16—Colorado, which has lost two of its best young
blockers, is absorbing the attrition of three straight tough games. Buffs can
expect no relief vs. the veteran KU defense that was flat at the outset of last
week’s 35-33 escape at Iowa State, giving up first 20 points. Jayhawk ground
game still inconsistent, but QB Reesing (70.2%, 14 TDs) and his receivers are
not. CU 3-11 last 14 as dog. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-Kansas 19-COLO. 14...C.19-17 K.33/180 C.33/66 C.27/45/2/287 K.20/29/0/153 K.2 C.1)
(07-Kansas -3' 19-14 06-KANSAS -2 20-15 05-COLORADO -15' 44-13...SR: Colorado 41-23-3)
*Penn State 20 - WISCONSIN 19—Back-to-back losses to Michigan and
Ohio State have diminished early-season enthusiasm of Badger fans.
However, this is Penn State’s most serious test of the season, and despite loss
to Ohio State, Camp Randall remains a tough place to play. Nittany Lions have
a lot of ways to hurt opponents, but after seeing Buckeye QB Pryor & RB Beanie
Wells last week, Badger “D†will make adjustments for Penn State’s similar
weapons. REG. TV—ABC
(07-PENN ST. 38-Wis. 7...P.27-17 P.47/221 W.34/87 W.17/34/2/244 P.16/29/0/216 P.1 W.1)
(07-PSU -7 38-7 06-WISC. -7 13-3 05-PSU -12 35-14...SR: Wisconsin 8-5)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Ucf 14—Psychology dicey for Hurricanes, who, after
spotting Florida State to 24-0 lead, saw their furious second-half rally fall just
short against hated rival last week. Still, inclined to lay fair price with more
explosive Miami, which can’t afford to let ambitious upstate UCF gain any
recruiting traction in south Florida. Punchless Knights have scored only 3 TDs
in last 3 road games. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(FIRST MEETING)
*FLORIDA 30 - Lsu 16—UF’s highly-combustible attack still not running on all
cylinders (Tim Tebow says “We don’t want to peak too early; we’re just fine.â€â€™),
but anticipate revenge-minded Gators rising to the occasion. Expect Tebow &
his speedy corps of WRs to burn LSU’s new set of CBs, who’ve had some
communication breakdowns. On other side, Tigers inexperienced QB Lee can’t
rely much on play-action, with SEC-leading RB Scott (535 YR, 7.5 ypc) hardpressed
to pick up early-down yds. vs. UF’s tenacious front 7 (3.2 ypc). Urban
Meyer is 22-2 SU in “The Swamp,†with 21 victories by 7 pts. or more.
(07-LSU 28-Florida 24...L.25-19 L.52/247 F.32/156 F.12/26/1/158 L.14/28/1/144 L.0 F.1)
(07-LSU -7' 28-24 06-FLORIDA -1 23-10 05-LSU -6 21-17...SR: Florida 28-23-3) TV-CBS
*SAN JOSE STATE 38 - Utah State 17—Recent efforts confirming reports
from WAC sources who have insisted there is more bite to new-look USU attack
and its option looks, thanks to soph QB Borel, who dazzled BYU defenders more
than once with his footwork last week. But SJSU usually a reliable proposition
at home (where it has covered 9 in a row), and leaky Utag “D†likely exposed by
maturing Spartan juco QB Reed and San Jose OL that mended various hurts
during last week’s bye. TV-ESPNU
(07-S. Jose St. 23-USU 20...S.30-15 U.39/175 S.32/98 S.35/48/2/426 U.11/21/2/78 S.0 U.0)
(07-Sjs +3 23-20 06-SJS -16 21-14 05-USU -5 24-17...SR: San Jose State 19-10-1)
*Tulsa 62 - SMU 28—Malleable Mustang “D†one of country’s worst units, and
scattershot true frosh SMU QB Mitchell has already been picked off 15 times.
Pointspread imposing, but buck juggernaut Tulsa (56 ppg & 596 ypg—both tops
in nation!) at your own peril.
(07-TULSA 29-Smu 23...T.28-20 S.47/158 T.33/102 T.27/45/2/336 S.17/35/1/192 T.3 S.0)
(07-TULSA -13' 29-23 06-SMU +6 34-24 05-TULSA -14' 20-13...SR: SMU 10-5)
*Boise State 34 - SOUTHERN MISS 20—USM in payback mode, but Boise
showed improved “roadability†in stunning 37-32 victory at Oregon Sept. 20.
However, Broncos traveling a long way to lay double digits on grass vs. USM
team with very capable ground weapon in quick jr. Damion Fletcher (710 YR).
(07-BOISE 38-S. Miss 16...B.23-15 B.41/199 S.36/116 B.19/28/1/307 S.16/31/0/202 B.1 S.1)
(07-BOISE STATE -10' 38-16...SR: Boise State 1-0)
*UTEP 35 - Tulane 26—Tough to make “technical†case for UTEP, which is
bankroll-busting 1-13 its last 14 laying points! But psychology & fundamentals
favor melding Miners. Host’s confidence bolstered by two straight wins, while
Green Wave licking its wounds after humbling blowout home loss to Army. And
underrated UTEP soph QB Vittatoe (7 TDP, only 1 int. last 2 games) has enough
weapons to trump Tulane jr. RB André Anderson (483 YR in last 3).
(07-TULANE 34-Utep 19...U.20-19 T.45/208 U.24/104 U.28/45/1/308 T.16/23/0/277 T.0 U.0)
(07-TULANE +4 34-19 06-UTEP -13 34-20 05-Utep -7 45-21 at Ruston...SR: UTEP 2-1)
*Air Force 34 - SAN DIEGO STATE 16—Acknowledge that SDSU has pulled
the occasional surprise on Chuck Long’s watch, but such upsets have been
outnumbered by the unsightly efforts (such as allowing Air Force to rush for 569
yards in LY’s Falcon blowout at Colorado Springs). And if RS frosh QB Lindley
can’t make post due to shoulder injury, one-dimensional Aztecs (118th in
rushing) unlikely to compensate. AF is 12-2 vs. line vs. non-Navy opposition
since HC Calhoun arrived LY.
(07-A. FORCE 55-Sds 23...A.30-21 A.64/569 S.35/96 S.29/47/1/410 A.8/14/1/101 A.0 S.2)
(07-AFA -12 55-23 06-SDS +13 19-12 05-AFA -7' 41-29...SR: Air Force 17-9)
*FRESNO STATE 49 - Idaho 10—There might be a price at which we could get
interested in Idaho. But since Santa Claus probably has other things on his
mind, would rather keep going against outmanned Vandals, who have
covered 1 of last 14 on board. Good chance for Fresno to take out some
frustrations after mortifying home loss to Hawaii featuring 6 TOs and pair of
late FG misses by PK Goesling.
(07-Fres. St. 37-IDAHO 24...F.25-19 I.45/279 F.47/238 F.17/22/0/178 I.9/26/0/144 F.2 I.2)
(07-Fsu -9' 37-24 06-FSU -11' 34-0 05-Fsu -28' 40-10...SR: Fresno State 6-4)
*HAWAII 28 - Louisiana Tech 16—It’s not the Red Gun we’ve been used to
seeing the past few years, but Hawaii “O†uncovering some new dimensions
nonetheless, thanks to mobile QB Funaki, who was near-flawless (2 TDP, plus
79 YR) in last week’s upset win at Fresno. Meanwhile, new La Tech QB Bennett
(Ga. Tech transfer) has completed just 39% in first month on new job. Sluggish
Bulldogs no TDs in 8 Qs on road thus far.
(07-Haw. 45-LA. TECH 44 (OT)...H.32-24 L.49/223 H.20/45 H.43/61/1/548 L.23/36/0/187 H.2 L.0)
(07-Hawaii -27' 45-44 (OT) 06-HAWAII -37' 61-17 05-TECH -3' 46-14...SR: Hawaii 5-1)
ADDED GAMES
*Ball State 41 - WESTERN KENTUCKY 16—ENORMOUS firepower edge
owned by Ball State, which has outgained impotent host WKU by more than 200
ypg! Undefeated Cards have covered 16 of last 21 and are ranked in top 25 for
first time in school history.
(07-BSU 35-W. Ky. 12...W.23-19 W.54/222 B.29/75 B.21/31/1/288 W.22/33/3/189 B.2 W.0)
(07-BALL STATE (NL) 35-12...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*ARKANSAS STATE 26 - La.-Monroe 20—Though Monroe’s defense made
Lafayette’s Tyrell Fenroy (297 YR) look like Barry Sanders last week, would still
take higher price with Warhawk squad equipped to trade points most of way
behind multi-talented QB Lancaster, who accounted for 244 yds. in 30-13 series
home win LY. ASU is 0-4 as DD home chalk since ‘98, and dog in series has
covered 8 straight!
(07-LA.-MON. 30-Asu 13...L.23-16 L.52/235 A.28/170 A.14/35/2/206 L.15/23/0/195 L.0 A.1)
(07-ULM +2' 30-13 06-ASU -6' 10-6 05-ULM +3 31-27...SR: Arkansas State 16-13)
*FLORIDA INTL. 24 - Middle Tennessee State 19—Whereas we weren’t sure
what to make of FIU’s surprising romp at Toledo two weeks ago, we’re now
ready to put the “buy†signal on much-improved Golden Panthers after last
week’s rout of North Texas. MTSU hard-pressed to survive until absent Blue
Raider infantry (117th in rushing, only 1.98 ypc) provides adequate help for
QB Craddock.
(07-MTS 47-Fla. Intl. 6...M.16-8 M.45/147 F.28/72 M.12/25/0/258 F.13/35/2/73 M.3 F.2)
(07-MTS -9' 47-6 06-MTS -10 7-6 05-FIU +6' 35-31...SR: Middle Tennessee St. 2-1)
*La.-Lafayette 45 - NORTH TEXAS 17—Anybody interested in North Texas?
Not very Mean Green have lost by at least 30 points in each of their first 6 games!
(07-LA.-LAF. 38-N. Tx. 29...N.25-14 L.36/300 N.40/144 N.35/57/3/383 L.10/20/0/114 L.2 N.1)
(07-ULL -8' 38-29 06-Ntu +11 16-7 05-Ull -4 31-28...SR: North Texas 8-4)
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2008 8:08pm -
0 likes
GOLDSHEET - NFL
ARIZONA by 6 over Dallas
SEATTLE by 14 over Green Bay
OVER THE TOTAL in the Miami-Houston game
ARIZONA 30 - Dallas 24—Dallas (2-0 vs. the spread away TY) has
historically had a strong following in Arizona. But Ken Whisenhunt has been
having considerable success “changing the culture†of the Cards, who are now
7-3 vs. spread at University of Phoenix Stadium under their steady HC,
including 2-0 as a dog. Arizona demonstrated its depth at WR last week (Larry
Fitzgerald 7 recs., Steve Breaston 7, Early Doucet 6) with Anquan Boldin out.
And powerful short-yardage specialist Tim Hightower (2 more TDR) helping E.
James in the backfield.
(06-Dallas -6' 27-10...SR: Dallas 55-28-1)
SEATTLE 34 - Green Bay 20—Neither of these two bear much
resemblance to LY’s playoff foes. But even with Aaron Rodgers (3 TDP last
week despite sore shoulder) back for the Pack, much prefer Seattle, which
offers good value at home (19-9-1 vs. line at extremely noisy Qwest Field since
‘05) and ought to be able to do some business vs. depleted Green Bay “D†that’s
particularly strapped in the secondary after recent injuries. Clutch Seahawk
WRs Bobby Engram & Deion Branch got the kinks out last week. And we know
Mike Holmgren is still stinging from that lopsided loss vs. his former team last
January at Lambeau. “Totals†alert—Pack “over†18-5 last 23!
(07-G. BAY 42-Sea. 20...G.25-15 G.35/235 S.18/28 G.18/23/0/173 S.19/33/0/172 G.2 S.1)
(07-GREEN BAY -7' 42-20 (Playoffs)...SR: Green Bay 8-5
OVER THE TOTAL HOUSTON 27 - Miami 26—Second of four straight
home games for Houston, which has played well enough to win last two weeks
at Jacksonville and last week vs. Indy, losing one game in OT and the other in
the waning minutes after a couple of “not-so-sage†Rosenfels fumbles.
Rosenfels was 4-1 as a starter LY, and is getting plenty of help from WR A.
Johnson & quick rookie RB Slaton. But Miami is brimming with confidence after
another Ronnie Brown TD from the Wildcat formation, giving Dolphins back-toback
victories over LY’s AFC title game participants! Houston “over†4-0 TY;
17-7-1 overall.
(07-HOU. 22-Miami 19...H.20-17 M.25/137 H.28/74 H.20/34/1/278 M.16/29/1/148 H.1 M.0)
(07-HOUSTON -5 22-19...SR: Houston 3-0)
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Oakland 24—First game for Oakland under elevated
OL coach Tom Cable, who was 11-35 in his only other head coaching job at
Idaho 2000-2003, making him fit right in with the likes of Bill Callahan, Norv
Turner, Art Shell & Lane Kiffin as HCs tabbed by Al Davis since Jon Gruden in
2001. Meanwhile, former Raiders such as Warren Sapp have been entertaining
us with tales of strange occurrences in Oakland. All that being said, however,
the Raiders have enough talent to be 2-0 vs. the spread on the road TY, and o.c.
Greg Knapp is reportedly under instructions to call more plays to exploit the
considerable talents of LSU product JaMarcus Russell.
(04-New Orleans +3 31-26...SR: Oakland 5-4-1)
INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Baltimore 17—Huge Manning-vs.-Flacco QB edge for
Indy. But Colts’ remodeled OL must deal with the aggressive zone blitzes of
Ravens, while the thinned Indy defense must inhibit the power running of Willis
McGahee & 260-pound FB/RB Le’Ron McClain (266 YR, 4 TDs). Rookie HC
John Harbaugh has had Baltimore fired up for every game so far, with both
losses in the late going by 3 points each. However, Indy is 0-2 SU so far at “The
Luke†and eager for first win at new home, so in Peyton vs. the rookie we trust.
(07-Indy 44-BALT. 20...B.19-16 B.32/98 I.27/59 I.16/22/0/275 B.22/30/3/145 I.0 B.2)
(07-Indianapolis -9 44-20...SR: Indianapolis 6-2)
NY JETS 27 - Cincinnati 16—It will be a long time before Jets again get 7
takeaways, as they did in last game vs. Arizona two weeks ago. However, they
looked like a different team, with Brett Favre passing freely to open receivers
and the aggressive N.Y. front seven collecting five sacks. This week, they can
add some punch in the backfield with RB Jesse Chatman’s suspension
concluded. Sore-elbowed Carson Palmer not much more mobile than Cards’
Kurt Warner.
(07-CINCY 38-Jets 31...C.26-19 C.41/177 N.26/84 N.20/31/1/258 C.14/21/1/218 C.0 N.1)
(07-CINCINNATI -6 38-31...SR: NY Jets 13-7)
Carolina 23 - TAMPA BAY 16—The Panthers have enjoyed inordinate
recent success at Raymond James, winning their last five trips! With Jake
Delhomme getting support on the ground from both DeAngelo Williams &
Jonathan Stewart and through the air from Steve Smith & Muhsin Muhammad,
must believe they have a considerable chance to extend their streak, especially
with Bucs’ QB picture unclear once again. Carolina 20-8-2 last 30 as an
underdog!
(07-T. Bay 20-CAR. 7...T.22-13 T.42/189 C.23/99 T.15/25/0/176 C.19/41/1/137 T.1 C.1)
(07-Car. 31-T. BAY 23...C.20-17 C.37/180 T.26/107 T.21/28/1/196 C.15/24/1/169 C.1 T.0)
(07-Tampa Bay +3 20-7, Carolina -3 31-23...SR: Carolina 9-6)
MINNESOTA 31 - Detroit 10—Well, so much for the thought that Matt Millen
was all that ailed in Detroit. Lions need more than a new GM; they need an
exorcism (by the way, was that Max von Sydow we saw at Ford Field last
week?), as the mess Millen left behind now includes issues at QB after Jon
Kitna was pulled (or was he hurt?) vs. Bears to go along with Detroit’s
unassertive defense (37 ppg, only two takeaways). By comparison,
Minnesota’s concerns seem minor, and the Vikes still have Adrian Peterson
and the most dominant platoon (their “Dâ€) on field. Minny led 35-10 at the H in
LY’s game at the HHH Metrodome.
(07-DET. 20-Min. 17 (OT)...D.29-17 M.33/123 D.21/56 D.35/56/3/359 M.20/37/4/190 D.2 M.1)
(07-MINN. 42-Det. 10...M.29-14 M.39/216 D.7/23 D.27/36/1/231 M.19/26/1/227 M.0 D.0)
(07-DETROIT -3 20-17 (OT), MINNESOTA -4' 42-10...SR: Minnesota 61-30-2)
Chicago 24 - ATLANTA 16—There’s not much secret to Atlanta’s best
recipe, which is to establish Michael Turner as an infantry force to minimize the
pressure on promising rookie QB Matt Ryan, who is capable of generating big
plays off the threat of Turner’s runs. But Chicago’s Kyle Orton (5 TDP last 2
games) is off his best back-to-back efforts since his days at Purdue, and Devin
Hester (5 catches at Detroit) starting to establish himself as legit receiving
threat. Bears a couple of 4th-quarter breakdowns from a 5-0 SU mark!
(05-CHICAGO -3' 16-3...SR: Chicago 12-10)
WASHINGTON 31 - St. Louis 13—It’s interesting that Jim Haslett,
coordinator of one of the league’s worst defenses (37 ppg), has been elevated
to be HC of the Rams. Most insiders blame St. Louis’ current plight on dubious
front office moves over the past several years, combined with terrible injury
luck. Now, there’s even wild speculation of a move back to L.A.! But the
question here is whether the Rams (2-7 last 9 as a dog) deserve respect in an
extraordinary situation (first game for a new coach) vs. solid Washington (4
straight covers) with its Campbell-Portis-Moss offense and bright young HC Jim
Zorn. We’ll say not ‘til they earn it.
(06-ST. LOUIS -2 37-31 (OT)...SR: Washington 22-9-1)
DENVER 28 - Jacksonville 23—Pass vs. run? No doubt Jacksonville—with
Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew—will try to play “keepaway†vs. Denver’s
high-scoring spread and its explosive young passing combo of QB Cutler (10
TDs, 4 ints.), Brandon Marshall (34 recs.) & Eddie Royal (30). The Jags racked
up 186 YR in a victory on this field LY. But the young Broncs are now a more
mature, moe talented crew that has gone “over†4-1 TY and 20 of its last 26
overall. And Jacksonville “over†11 of 13 away.
(07-Jack. 23-DENVER 14...J.21-11 J.47/186 D.18/47 D.16/23/1/218 J.14/20/0/140 J.2 D.2)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 23-14...SR: EVEN 4-4)
Philadelphia 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 17—Can’t trust the S.F. offense with its
20 sacks allowed vs. the aggressive Philly defense and its 18 sacks earned.
Washington—with its depth at DB and familiarity with the multiple talents of
Brian Westbrook—was able to contain the Eagles for the final three quarters
last week. Not sure the 49ers able to duplicate that performance. The savvy
New England defense was able to lure J.T. O’Sullivan into three ints. last week.
(06-Philadelphia -6 38-24...SR: San Francisco 17-9-1)
*SAN DIEGO 27 - New England 13—Payback time for S.D. after a pair of
losses LY, the first in Week Two vs. the then-rampaging N.E. offense, and the
second in the January AFC title game, when LaDainian Tomlinson was out and
Philip Rivers played with a tear in his ACL and TE Antonio Gates with a bum
foot. The Pats’ offense that was setting records in 2007 is near the bottom of
the league in 2008. Bill Belichick teams are 24-11-1 last 36 when getting points.
But Matt Cassel is making only his fourth start, and the defense is giving up
some long TD drives. Chargers 9-2 vs. spread last 11 at home.
TV—NBC
(07-N. ENG. 38-S. Diego 14...N.25-14 N.32/144 S.20/52 N.25/31/1/263 S.19/30/2/149 N.1 S.1)
(07-N. ENG. 21-S. Diego 12...N.25-17 N.31/149 S.22/104 S.19/37/2/207 N.22/33/3/198 N.0 S.0)
(07-NEW ENGLAND -3' 38-14, NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-12 (Playoffs)...SR: New England 20-14-2)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 13
*NY Giants 27 - CLEVELAND 16—Considering the expected kamikaze
effort from Cleveland, it’s tempting to give the Browns consideration as a
substantial dog. But not THAT tempting, as Cleveland has many areas of
concern. Meanwhile, the unbeaten Giants—whose performance hardly
suffered vs. Seattle minus Plaxico Burress—take a 12-game road unbeaten
string and 10 straight covers as visitor to the shores of Lake Erie. Besides,
Derek Anderson (49.6%, 3 TDs, 6 ints.) has been shaken this season by less
menacing obstacles than N.Y.’s formidable pass rush, and the possible switch
to Brady Quinn not likely to boost the Brownies vs. this foe. CABLE TV—ESPN
(2007 Preseason: NY GIANTS -2 beat Cleveland 37-34 at New York)
(04-NY GIANTS -3' 27-10...SR: Cleveland 26-20-2)
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2008 8:11pm -
0 likes
THE SPORTS REPORTER
SUPER BEST BET
AIR FORCE over *SAN DIEGO STATE by 27
The fly boys head to San Diego to exercise the demons from their loss to Navy that saw
them give up 2 punt block TD’s. That won’t happen again. The Aztecs don’t have the
defensive horses to keep the Falcons from pounding the ground game for 60 minutes.
Even after the game is in hand, the long list of capable runners will be doing their best
to get in the TD column. Before last week, SDSU had the offensive firepower and game
plan to hang, but the offense went from a Magnum to a Derringer with the loss of promising
freshman QB Lindley to injury. The offense was tweaked a few weeks ago to focus
on the passing game based entirely on the signal caller’s skills. Without him, Chuck
Long’s team managed just 85 yards and 4 first downs against TCU last week, but more
importantly – they must go back to the drawing board to try and craft an offense. There’s
not enough chalk in Southern California to save them this week. AIR FORCE, 41-14.
BEST BET
RUTGERS over *CINCINNATI by 7
Gotta follow the Rutgers plan, which has yet to fail: Against in non-conference season,
when they lost all three vs. the spread, on when the Big East bell rings. Ding-ding-ding!
But you knew that already. Returning to the doggie dish of last Saturday’s win, this is by
no means a Pavlovian response but a planned, targeted initiative, similar to riding the San
Diego Chargers in the 2007 NFL post-season (three consecutive Best Bet winners). ESPN
performed a nice assist in the set-up, when the all-square network introduced the
national viewing public to a Cincinnati team that overcame quarterback obstacles to
dominate the self-inflicted wound called Marshall by four scores last Friday night. That
event will seem like it was four scores and 20 years ago when Rutgers’ quick defense
swarms the Bearcats’ running game and forces that fourth-stringer in his first Big East
start into bad down and distance situations. By no means has Rutgers put it all together
yet but as the head coach keeps saying to mostly skeptical ears, they’ll get a little better
every week. RUTGERS, 24-17.
BEST BET
*TEXAS TECH over NEBRASKA by 30
Missouri exposed more of Nebraska’s alleged defense than the offensively-challenged
Virginia Tech team did during their win in Lincoln, and now the Huskers leave home for
the first time this season, after Missouri has verified how slow they are defensively (as
well as rag-tag offensively), and they are once again forced to play defense in space
against an opposing offense that excels at playing in space. Nebraska must do this as a
natural grass team on the host’s preferred artificial turf, the better for Texas Tech to
catch, cut and turn upfield against the Huskers’ alleged DBs, who won’t have the benefit
of a dangerous pass rush to assist them. Bo Pelini apologized to the people of
Nebraska for the blowout loss vs. Missouri, but the sharpies in the state would tell him,
“Hey, Bro, no problem. Keep up the good work. We like to win.†Is Tech coach Leach
shooting for 60 here? TEXAS TECH, 55-25.
BEST BET
*MISSISSIPPI STATE over VANDERBILT by 10
Vandy is the talk of the college football town this week and for good reason. The home
win on national TV over Auburn sets up nicely for backing the other side, an improving
1-4 squad fresh off of a much needed bye week. Despite giving up chunks of yards
against Georgia Tech and LSU, the home Bulldogs’ defense is a solid group that won’t
have trouble containing a Commodore offense that doesn’t do much beyond 15 yards
from the line of scrimmage. When they barely outgained Auburn last Saturday, it marked
just the second time that Vandy had put up more yards than their opponent. Not scary
stuff. As for MSU’s offense, sure it has struggled. But QB Tyson Lee started vs. LSU and
directed his team to 24 points. Their confidence level is up and the bye week gave Lee
that much more time under center. The off week also allowed starting tailback Dixon to
nurse his groin, which he said was at 70-75% for the LSU game. Sylvester Croom knows
that an 0-5 start against D1-A schools won’t fly and that a win over a now Top-15 ranked
conference foe will appease the masses – at least for another seven days. MISSISSIPPI
STATE, 27-17.
RECOMMENDED
*OHIO STATE over PURDUE by 27
The three best things that ever happened to outgoing Purdue head coach Joe Tiller and
staff were a) and b) Ohio State wasn’t on Purdue’s schedule in ’05 and ’06, and c) he
was already 4-0 vs. weak willies before meeting the Buckeyes last season and could
afford to be humiliated. Purdue’s offense, with the running game that can’t break a pane
of glass, got 7 points vs. the Buckeyes’ defense last year despite being +4 in Turnover
Ratio when the Stiff Boeckman did his best to undermine the Ohio State offense, which
they won’t allow him to do anymore now that Pryor is there. Purdue’s Painter, and big
passing yards? Blah, blah, blah. Painter needs a new brush. His bristles are clogged. And
if that’s not bad enough, Purdue’s defense – no names but eleven “Kick Me†signs on the
backs of the uniforms -- specializes in being abused. OHIO STATE, 33-6.
RECOMMENDED
*FLORIDA over LSU by 14
Teams are keeping Florida from making big plays in the passing game so Florida has
relied more on the running game and special teams for points. They hit three 36+ TD
runs at Arkansas last week that simply won’t be there against LSU this week. QB Tebow
must direct a balanced attack, taking the short and intermediate routes and allowing his
WRs to get yards after the catch. The Tiger secondary is young and can be picked apart
by a patient offense. LSU QB Lee will make just his second start of his career. The first
was a home walk-through vs. Mississippi State. The night atmosphere in the Swamp will
be a bit more to handle for the youngster who has thrown three picks while splitting
snaps. Les Miles sports a sinister offensive line, so look for the Gators to load up to stop
the running forcing Lee to beat them with his arm. Difference in QB play will be the difference
here – give us the motivated Heisman winner playing in his own backyard.
FLORIDA, 31-17.
RECOMMENDED
BALL STATE over *WESTERN KENTUCKY by 9
Ball State, looking pretty at 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS,
wants two things. They want to win the MAC, and they want cracks at the big boys. A
visit to Western Kentucky cannot accomplish anything along those lines, because
Western Kentucky is a lowly, auditioning Sun Belt entrant. Under Brady Hoke, Ball State
is 13-3 ATS on the road, mostly within their own MAC conference, or as an underdog vs.
power conference teams they were targeting in their efforts to impress the world. This is
the Ball boys’ fourth road game in five weeks, in the home of an opponent that outclocked
them on offense 34 minutes to 26 on their home field a year ago en route to
gaining 411 offensive yards, most of it on the ground. Why expect Ball State’s “A†game?
You know that Western Kentucky will bring theirs. Their only other home game was a 50-
9 win against Murray State. BALL STATE, 30-21.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7
TROY over *FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 4
Say goodnight to the Flying Schnellenbergers. Troy has had this one circled since last
November, when FAU was our Best Bet +10 outright winner in what amounted to the Sun
Belt title game. As noted in last week’s issue, Troy would be at Oklahoma State last Saturday
in body, with spirit listed as “doubtful.†Spirit is now “probable†for this trip. For FAU, starting
quarterback Rusty “Formerly Big Play†Smith has been downgraded to Rusty “Midrange
Play†Smith. TROY, 28-24.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9
CLEMSON over *WAKE FOREST by 3
Wake’s ground game accounts for only 85 per contest leaving QB Skinner. Clemson’s secondary
is quick and will keep QB Riley Skinner from hitting at his normal 70% completion
rate. The maligned Tigers have underperformed more than a ’75 Pinto, but the run game
showed signs of life in going for 221 yards in a loss to Maryland. The o-line is patchwork –
with four different starting combos in four games. If Clemson can keep from screwing the
pooch too often, their athleticism on both sides should be the difference. CLEMSON, 20-17.
*HOUSTON over UAB by 18
Favoritism and Houston has not been a good combo. 0-2 ATS this season, 3-5 ATS last season,
and 1-5 ATS as the home favorite since last season. A defense full of slow learners,
unspeakable special teams horrors, and penalty-prone play are the causes. But Houston
does a heck of a lot of forward passing, often in the 400 and 500 yards per game range. The
forward pass is something that befuddles UAB defensive players. Third down – in those
instances when they haven’t already gotten their 10 yards in two downs -- should be like a
“get out of jail free card†for a team like the Cougars. HOUSTON, 38-20.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10
LOUISVILLE over *MEMPHIS by 10
Be very skeptical of a shaky C-USA defense’s chances to contain the Big East boys’ 200-200
Offense. Of the nation’s defenses that have been on the field for the fewest plays, Memphis’
alleged “stop unit†(59 plays per game) has allowed the most points per game (25). Other
defenses in that play-count range – like TCU and South Carolina – allow 11 and 14.5 ppg.
Also, the best thing about Memphis QB Arkelon Hall – despite the 4 TD passes against UAB’s
vertically-challenged defense -- is that he isn’t back-up Will Hudgens. Louisville’s running
game can be the bowling ball, Memphis’ defensive front the kegpins, leaving Memphis’ DBs
exposed as sitting ducks. LOUISVILLE, 37-27.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11
EAST CAROLINA over *VIRGINIA by 6
UVA put up 11 more points last week against Maryland than it had in its previous 4 games
combined. The offense fed off the defense and actually looked pretty good. ECU looks to get
back to even ground after a roller coaster start. The Pirates are converting just 36% on third
down, but will find the goings easier against a week Cavalier defense. Virginia’s spring camp
third-string QB is now running the show, but despite last week’s success, Verica threw four
picks vs. lesser Duke athletes and one decent week does not a good QB make. EAST CAROLINA,
26-20.
*WEST VIRGINIA over SYRACUSE by 23
Today’s matinee feature is “Waking Noel Devine,†as West Virginia’s top RB goes from gaining
only 46 rushing yards last Saturday vs. Rutgers, (very predictable, as you already know!)
and is now launched at the non-tacklers on Syracuse’s matador defense. But, as called in
the Zone Blitz,West Virginia QB Pat White is already breaking down physically. Laying points
with West Virginia, with White, isn’t all that appealing. Laying points without him – even with
Syr-excuse as the foe – is not a recommendation anyone would get within these pages.
WEST VIRGINIA, 37-13.
IOWA over *INDIANA by 1
Visiting tailback Shonn Green, all 235 pounds and 6.1 yards per carry of him, is the bowling
ball. The Hoosiers’ alleged defensive front is the pins. But the Indiana offense has a lot of
speed that Iowa could not contain last season when they allowed 38 points to the Hoosiers
on their home field. You probably know this already, but Iowa didn’t play either Ohio State or
Michigan last season, yet still didn’t go to a bowl game. In the Big Ten, that is the mark of a
weenie. Iowa seems like the kind of team whose offense (16.8 ppg last four) can get
untracked as the defense (11.2 ppg for the season) takes a step backwards. IOWA, 28-27.
*ILLINOIS over MINNESOTA by 13
Minnesota’s lack of depth at running back could be taking a toll. Against good defenses,
blocking for the QB could become an issue. The defense is playing better, but the first two
Big Ten outings handed them Ohio State’s raw Pryor in his first start, and Indiana’s starter
Lewis playing on a bad leg. ILLINOIS, 28-15.
*NORTHWESTERN over MICHIGAN STATE by 3
Until Northwestern’s defense breaks down from the attack-or-lose-your-job mandate of firstseason
defensive coordinator Hankwitz, they’ll play some of the best D in the history of the
program – which is far from stellar, because it’s still Northwestern. But the depth is good and
the mindset better than usual. Michigan State’s seven offensive plays – Ringer right, left, up
the middle, Hoyer complete, incomplete, pass interference call, interception – will get yards
and some points as Northwestern starts to believe in its 17 sacks (oops, we’re too aggressive!),
but not enough to make up for what the defense allows to Bacher, Sutton & Co. as long
as Bacher’s gun isn’t pointed at his teammates’ heads. NORTHWESTERN, 27-24.
OKLAHOMA over TEXAS by 3 (at Dallas, TX)
The D’s in Big D will determine who gets the W. Oklahoma’s armor hasn’t shown many
chinks, but both Cincinnati and Baylor were able to use their speed to move the football.
Texas has some nice athletes at the skill spots – most notably QB Colt McCoy who is the
team’s leading rusher. Mack Brown and crew will look to keep the Sooners off-balance
‘cause they’ll need to put points on the board. Bob Stoops’ offense is clinical in the passing
game and will prove difficult for a young Longhorn secondary to chase. Oklahoma’s offensive
line has an edge on Texas’ and will keep their QB just a bit cleaner. OKLAHOMA, 31-28
EASTERN MICHIGAN over *ARMY by 3
Eastern Michigan bettered the spread by a mile (24 points) last Saturday, without the benefit
of a turnover from Bowling Green. Go figure. Army bettered the spread by two miles (51
points), despite making their usual 5 turnovers. Army’s fall to Earth begins at a higher point,
therefore their pending crash will build more velocity and bury them in a deeper hole. EMU
has always played relatively mistake-free on offense and Army will cough it up on cue. EASTERN
MICHIGAN, 27-24.
*BAYLOR over IOWA STATE by 6
The Cyclones may be a just a stiff breeze this week after suffering a heart-breaking loss to
#16 ranked Kansas. Plus, they’ve lost 13 straight road conference games, so confidence is
certainly an issue. Bears QB Griffen is as dynamic as they come and the true freshman will
be aided by his home environment. In a battle of offensive and defensive minds (Briles vs.
Chizik), give the slight edge to the home favorite with young speed. BAYLOR, 27-21.
SOUTH CAROLINA over *KENTUCKY by 4
To win, Kentucky must run it and play defense. South Carolina must pass it and play defense.
The Gamecock defense is tough up front and won’t allow the Cats to purr. Expect Spurrier to
let QB Smelley chuck it 40+ times because winning is more important than offensive balance.
Both squads are coming off of physical road battles and although Kentucky is the
stronger team mentally, the South Carolina passing game is finding its legs and their leader
Kenny McKinley will be back to full strength. SOUTH CAROLINA, 24-20.
*BUFFALO over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 3
Turner Gill’s home team didn’t need the bye week to devise the necessary plan: Let’s get
physical with our o-line and versatile stable of running backs, to avoid Western Michigan’s
pass rush (10.5 sacks), give Drew Willy a chance to go vertical successfully after we lull them
to sleep, and keep our suspect pass defense off the field against Western Michigan’s relatively
effective dink-and-dunk pass attack. BUFFALO, 24-21.
UTAH over *WYOMING by 21
Wyoming’s lack of offensive bite prevents any thought of a letdown upset. The Cowboys are
averaging 8.0 ppg against D1-A opponents – including being shut out twice. They lost 50-0
at Utah last year. Interesting revenge motive, but you need substance to actually achieve it.
The Utes have way too much talent on both sides and should coast to the conference win.
UTAH, 31-10.
KANSAS STATE over *TEXAS A&M by 6
The A&M offense put up over 400 yards on Okie St. last week and they’ll do alright against
Ron Prince’s defensive lightweights on Saturday. Prince is getting big-time pressure from the
alum to replace the defensive coordinator – not a good sign five weeks in. Winning is a cureall
and the Aggie defense will do its part to ensure that K-State QB Freeman and his crew get
their fair share. KANSAS STATE, 30-24.
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN over TEMPLE by 14
Temple has been dodging every arrow and bullet by reducing the other team’s offensive output
during their own energy crisis. MAC-betting sharpies “underâ€-stand what it’s all about
Central Michigan had a bye week to analyze what’s goin’ on, mostly surprisingly good run
defense. Central Michigan’s QB has much more MAC experience than Temple’s, but so did
Western Michigan’s and Miami-OH’s. Somebody needs to jump on Temple early and put that
QB into chase mode so he can dig a deeper hole. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 27-13.
TCU over *COLORADO STATE by 15
Who trusts Colorado State coming off a home win against the infamous UNLV team that
reverted to its bumblin’ stumblin’ road ways, when the opponent is +8 in TO Ratio and has
a nation’s high 21 sacks? TCU will drive the field and not turn it over. At least it shortens the
game and gives the home dog with the bad punting and kicking games (which TCU will
exploit) a chance we’re not really interested in taking if TCU is destined to turn their quarterback
into a negative yardage crunch bar. TCU, 28-13.
*MISSOURI over OKLAHOMA STATE by 17
If Okie St. can’t stop A&M’s offense (400+ yards and 28 points), what will Chase Daniel do
to them? The Cowboys are just 3-9 in Big 12 roadies under Gundy and they’ll need to get at
least 40 points to have a shot. Mizzou’s defense has its holes, so yards/points will be there
for his talented group. Trouble is that his defense must hold down a vet group with playmakers
across the board. A win for the visitors is unlikely and they know it – might as well
focus on winning next week. MISSOURI, 45-28.
*GEORGIA over TENNESSEE by 10
The Dawgs had an off week to get the bad taste of ’Bama out of their mouths. They’ll get
back to the running game, going after the Vols front seven. Don’t expect fireworks from the
home favorite, but it’s easy to focus on your own ground game when the other team can’t
get out of its own way. Big-time revenge game for Richt’s pups after they were neutered in
Knoxville last year. GEORGIA, 24-14.
*SOUTHERN CAL over ARIZONA STATE by 27
Chernobyl has nothing on ASU at this point. The Sun Devils are in meltdown mode. The
offense has no identity and tried to focus on the run last week – rocking out for 70 yards.
USC’s defense will be able to get a line push with their front four, leaving their LB’s to headhunt.
QB Sanchez has a bevy of athletes at his disposal and despite some decent talent, the
road defense will lose its will after falling behind early. SOUTHERN CAL, 41-14.
*OREGON over UCLA by 22
UCLA brings a young squad into a hostile environment facing a talent-laden, revenge-minded
opponent. Not exactly the formula for a road upset. The Bruins win if they can stay ahead
and run the football. Won’t happen here and QB Craft will be put in harm’s way far too often
for his own good – and his team’s. The Ducks don’t take to the air with much success and
UCLA’s run defense is their strength so there is so hope to prevent the blowout. At least for
a quarter or two. OREGON, 31-9.
*MICHIGAN over TOLEDO by 12
Visiting coach Amstutz to host: ‘We’ve been running from the spread and practicing against
it for ages. You think you can bowl over our defense, but we’re ready for your offense that
has been gaining a mere 290 per game against better defenses and cannot yet play at the
up-tempo you prefer, as evidenced by making so many turnovers at the pedestrian rate of
only 62.5 plays per game.’ Host coach Rodriguez to visitor: ‘But our defense is still going to
pick your quarterback at least twice, and separate your ball carrier from the piggie another
two times.’ MICHIGAN, 27-15.
*NORTH CAROLINA over NOTRE DAME by 4
Notre Dame’s running game is pretty bad – that’s why Weis threw it 40 times against
Stanford. QB Clausen will face a much more athletic defense in Chapel Hill than he saw in
South Best last week, meaning that he’ll have less time to throw and smaller throwing windows.
Butch Davis has some really nice athletes that can now run with Virginia Tech and
Miami-FL, and run past Notre Dame. But Notre Dame’s defense has shown marked improvement
this year – largely due to the hiring of defensive coach Jon Tenuta. The Tar Heels offer
a back-up starter, QB Cam (Ho-Hum) Sexton, to Tenuta as fodder for blitzes. NORTH CAROLINA,
20-16.
*AUBURN over ARKANSAS by 16
The Razorbacks were chomped by the Gators speed, but should be able to settle in against
a plodding Auburn offense that lacks chemistry and playmakers. The Hogs are showing
improvement on offense as evidenced by the 361 yards they put up on Florida. But, Tommy
Tuberville’s defense will keep the road dog from doing much while he asks his QBs to hand
it off 40+ times. AUBURN, 24-8.
*NEVADA over NEW MEXICO STATE by 13
Understandably, Nevada had big-time troubles containing Missouri and Texas Tech so there
is some cause for concern when pass-happy NMSU visits. The Wolfpack secondary is young
and will give up its fair share of yards and points against Chase Holbrook & Co. Good news
is that QB Kaepernick is lethal – especially when facing a team that gives up 35 ppg vs. D1-
A schools. Nevada’s top 5 nationally ranked run offense will wear a path to the end zone in
what is certain to be a score fest. NEVADA, 45-32.
*NORTHERN ILLINOIS over MIAMI-OH by 7
Let’s stuff Miami-OH in the garbage can, secure the lid tightly and cover up the smell. Enough
is enough. It’s time to cut losses with the Deadhawks and wish them good luck, but that
doesn’t mean anyone should fall for NIU’s near-upset at Tennessee as an indication that the
home side can dominate these proceedings. That’s the oldest trap in the book. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS, 24-17.
*BYU over NEW MEXICO by 21
New Mexico wants to run the ball with their tailbacks and QB, (1) because it suits their physical
style, (2) because they can’t throw it a lick. The first 15 minutes are critical to hanging
due to the offensive muscle that the Cougars can flex. This one will either be a blowout early
or it will come down to the fourth quarter – there is no middle ground. Given the fact that
BYU boss Mendenhall is a New Mexico guy, we’ll take door #1. BYU, 38-17.
*OREGON STATE over WASHINGTON STATE by 27
The Beavers speed on offense will be trouble for a Cougar defense that has given up tons of
big plays to any team with an offensive pulse. Last week on the road in L.A., Washington
State started their third-string QB who directed them to 25 yards rushing, 9 punts, 8 penalties,
and 3 fumbles. Only number you need to know is this – one bad team. Home team gets
it done in a big way against the conference punch line. OREGON STATE, 35-8.
ARIZONA over *STANFORD by 10
Stat mongers love Arizona for their nationally #1 ranked defense. That defense has tussled
with teams that are a combined 2-16 against D1-A schools – not exactly the elite. Both New
Mexico and UCLA had success running between the tackles and that’s what Harbaugh and
crew will do with the RB duo of Gerhart and Kimble. To gain the home cover, the Cardinal
must be better on pass defense where they’ve excelled at giving up the big play. It is a function
of better athletes beating lesser athletes and that won’t change when Air Zona hits the
field. ARIZONA, 31-21.
*AKRON over BOWLING GREEN by 3
Last week’s pitiful home loss to Eastern Mich as –20 favorites will not be recorded on the
Bee Gees’ Greatest Hits album. The Akronisms come home giddy after working overtime to
beat the mistake-prone, unbalanced Kent Staters, and are thinking that if Bowling Green is
really as run-starved as the 98 rushing yards per game suggests they are, then they have an
excellent chance to Zip it up and avenge last season’s 44-20 defeart, in which sinceremoved
quarterback Carlton the Doorman Jackson ushered them into defeat with 2 INTs
and wiping out his own would-be rushing touchdown by fumbling into BG’s end zone.
AKRON, 24-21.
*KENT STATE over OHIO by 1
The game plan for both coaches should be to pin the other side back inside its own 5-yardline
so their defense can watch the opposing quarterback dance around his own end zone
like a chicken without a head. Frank Solich loves his Ohio defense… it must be tough love.
Kent State is an injury-laden bunch but if they hang onto the football, and if they get firststring
RB Eugene Jarvis back, they have a shot. Too many ifs, and add a third -- they need
to get Walt Disney’s Gus the Mule to handle field goal kicking duties. Ohio might block three
kicks and still lose. KENT STATE, 27-26.
*KANSAS over COLORADO by 12
CU took a step back when they were horned by Texas at home last week. Question is: can
they re-group and take out a Kansas team that will be on the defense against first half lethargy
after falling down 20-0 to Iowa State at the break last week. Probably not. The Jayhawks
can’t run the ball effectively so they just let QB Reesing do all of the work. The kid is really
good and he’ll have no trouble finding targets against a Buff front 7 that rarely gets to the
QB. Colorado’s offense is missing two starting offensive linemen to injury and won’t be able
to keep pace in this race. KANSAS, 31-19.
PENN STATE over *WISCONSIN by 4
The Badgers are now scratching and clawing to prevent a 0-3 Big Ten start. Tough chore
against the conference’s best. Wisky is at home and they are the first physical run team that
PSU has faced. If they can act the part of a politician and somehow forget the past, they have
a real shot at the upset. Trouble with the Lions is that they are ultra-balanced on offense –
regularly going for 200+ rushing and passing. QB Clarke looks sharp and the home dog did
have trouble with a similarly mobile QB in Pryor last week. Even if the Badger tailbacks get
their yards, QB Everidge’s arm isn’t threatening and his top target – TE Beckum – has not
been at 100% all year. PENN STATE, 24-20.
*MIAMI-FL over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 20
A few negative vibrations come out of Central Florida about multiple players vs. the head
coach. Others say that ex-assistants who couldn’t tolerate working for Gorgeous George
have created an unstable staff and a loosely connected players-to-coaches line of communication.
UCF’s docket in games vs. in-state South Florida had nothing good on it, and the
Miami-FL staff, off two losses in a row, has just as much incentive to stamp out the intrastate
flame before it has any chance to burn them. MIAMI-FL, 23-3.
*SAN JOSE STATE over UTAH STATE by 13
Spartan wins are usually about as pretty as Charlie Weis in a tank top and this week will be
no exception. The Aggies are showing some fire this year and will battle. However, their
weakness for making mistakes hangs in SJSU’s wheel house. Tomey’s club has amassed 14
takeaways and 15 sacks on the year and for once they will have the athletic advantage. They
play a low risk style and won’t put up much more than 300 yards – so tread lightly if investing
in Silicon Valley. SAN JOSE STATE, 23-10.
TULSA over *SMU by 28
Some people in need of a perspective adjustment would say this has the potential to get ugly
early. In reality, it actually has the potential to get beautiful, late, for Tulsa backers because
by the very nature of the sport, it will take a while for them to clear the multiple-score, posted
number with a balanced, productive, up-tempo offense too much for SMU’s defense to
handle. SMU’s pass-first, pass-second, pass-third offense is too one-dimensional to fool
Tulsa’s defense, whose base 3-3-5 alignment is the best defense to employ vs. SMU’s offensive
style. TULSA, 52-24.
*FRESNO ST over IDAHO by 31
The Vandals have been robbed by opposing D1-A teams who have put up no less than 42
points in a game. Idaho backers are probably sick of their squad falling short of big Vegas
numbers but their offense isn’t good enough to keep pace with their matador-style defense.
Fresno will put up plenty of points through motivation alone after dropping their WAC opener
to lowly Hawaii at home. FRESNO STATE, 44-13.
LOUISIANA TECH over *HAWAII by 1
The Bulldogs have the better team, but winning on the island is tough – especially when considering
La Tech’s 9-day travel schedule. Ruston-to-Boise, Boise-to-Ruston, Ruston-to-
Hawaii. Look for Tech coach Dooley to take it out of QB Bennett’s hands and to give it to his
RBs. The o-line should get push against a defense that surrendered 318 yards on the ground
at Fresno last week. With Hawaii still feeling their way through a Colt Brennan-less offense,
the time to take them out is now. LOUISIANA TECH, 23-22.
*ARKANSAS STATE over LOUISIANA-MONROE by 14
While the Monrovians were spending two weeks preparing to lose the annual Lafalot Bowl,
Arkansas State was getting a jump on this revenge try with the benefit of their own bye last
Saturday. Arkansas State has done nothing to arouse good suspicions among regular people
– beating Texas A&M means diddly now, as does opening Sun Belt season with a win against
the Chinese Fire Drillers of Middle Tennessee. They lost outright to C-USA’s Memphis and
Southern Miss. And none o’ that means anything as they prepare to ignore ULM’s alleged
tacklers en route to ball-hogging their way to a win. ARKANSAS STATE, 34-20.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE over *FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL by 2
With Middle Tennessee’s gimmick-laden offense and FIU’s hair-on-fire defense, this will
resemble one of those electric football games with pieces tumbling sideways off the field and
colliding in ways that seem to make no sense. Middle Tennessee doesn’t have a power running
game that could extinguish the flames burning through the FIU helmets. As opponents
see more of Middle Tennessee’s chicanery, returns will diminish. MID TENNESSEE, 20-18.
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE over *NORTH TEXAS by 21
Nobody wants 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS North Texas, who missed the spread by –40 and –25 points
in their last two games. That’s a reason to at least think “North Texas,†because anyone actually
going “anti-North Texas,†would be sticking themselves with the ol’ unreliable Lafalots,
a one-way offense with a matador defense coming off a hard-fought rivalry win. But North
Texas is a passing team with lousy receivers. Not quite the right mix. UL-LAFAYETTE, 41-20.
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2008 8:18pm -
0 likes
THE SPORTS REPORTER - NFL
BEST BET
*WASHINGTON over ST. LOUIS by 3
The Rams are 0-4 SU and ATS, the owner wants to dump
them on somebody else, and they play their first game under interim head coach Jim
Haslett. (Buy low.) The Redskins have won four straight, the last two hard-fought victories
vs. Dallas and Philadelphia, both on the road. (Sell high).Worlds collide. When a gambler
thinks like an investor instead of a TV parade-watcher and joiner, the chances to win
in the long run increase. The Redskins fell behind in three of their four wins. They might
get an early lead here, but if they don’t, who’d want to be chasing an NFL team with a
two-score favorite, needing three more scores just to push? The St. Louis’ offense – off
a bye week, with Marc Bulger restored as starting QB, and team morale possibly better
now that Scott Linehan’s office has been cleared – is directed by the guy who knows
more about the Washington offensive personnel than most people connected to the
Redskins. Al Saunders coordinated it for two years, wheree he was often mocked for the
lack of production. Washington hasn’t changed their running schemes (Joe Bugel is still
the line coach), so it’s an easier-than-normal prep job for the St. Louis defense, which
has more sacks than Washington’s in 33 fewer cracks at quarterbacks. With Steven
Jackson, Saunders has a running back who can do to Washington what Washington did
to Dallas two Sundays ago – keep the opposing offense off the field. Saunders and
Haslett have had an extra week to help transform themselves from wack-job playbook
guy and blitz-happy clown, into any-given-Sunday winners. WASHINGTON, 27-24.
BEST BET
JACKSONVILLE over *DENVER by 10
Through the first five weeks of the season, the most valuable player on the Jaguars has
been… Josh Scobee? Two last second game-winning kicks have kept Jacksonville’s
hopes alive and the rest of the team is coming together at the right time. Early season
injuries to the team’s offensive and defensive lines made them increasingly vulnerable
but the Jaguars have pulled together on both fronts, showing increased proficiency at
pass protection and pass rushing the opposing quarterback – two traits that will come in
incredibly useful against a dangerous Denver team that lacks defense and requires a
strong pass rush to defeat. Jay Cutler is having the type of season that elevates a young
starter into the elite field of NFL quarterbacks, but like most young quarterbacks Cutler
can be contained with a strong pass rush that knocks him down on his butt a few times.
The running tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew should finally find room to
run against one of the most undersized defensive front sevens in the NFL – a unit so
small that they made Larry Johnson look like it was 2005. The same LJ who put up 2
yards on 7 carries this week, to give you some sense of perspective. Look for the
Jacksonville running game to get the Jags off to a quick start that will help them put up
serious points on Denver. JACKSONVILLE 27-17.
RECOMMENDED
CAROLINA over *TAMPA BAY by 6
The return of Steve Smith and the steady hum of Carolina’s run game has helped restore
the Panthers offense as a force to be reckoned with. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo
Williams form a potent 1-2 combination in the backfield while Jake Delhomme’s surgically
repaired elbow has held up well, with Delhomme zipping throws with ease to all
parts of the field. The dual threats on offense will make it a difficult match-up for Monte
Kiffin and the Bucs defense, who’ve typically had difficulty contending with their divisional
foes. Over the past five seasons, which has seen unparalleled coaching continuity
for both franchises, the Bucs have gone 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS when facing the Panthers –
including a pathetic 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS mark when facing Carolina at home. Last week’s
injury to Brian Griese means more controversy at the team’s most important position, a
situation that is not helped by the inability of Tampa’s running game to get going. Carolina
is a team that performs best against the spread on the road, especially against divisional
opponents. CAROLINA 20-14.
RECOMMENDED
*HOUSTON over MIAMI by 12
As far as Miami is concerned, two consecutive very good efforts and wins vs. two pretty
strong teams – New England and San Diego – should be interpreted as the signal for
an immediate regression. They need to re-stock that bag o’ tricks before Halloween, but
they used up all their early-bird coupons and need more time to collect ‘em, clip ‘em and
mail ‘em in. Working against them this Sunday is that Houston is off a so-called “deflatingâ€
defeat in the waning minutes vs. Indianapolis. Plenty of observers will consider this
as a reason for them to pack it in, but it’s all the more reason for the Texans to come out
and play with their hair on fire. Hey, they’re 0-4 SU. What do they have to let down on?
Houston has also improved from week to week this season and, despite snatching defeat
from the jaws of victory, rides an invisible up-curve. Miami has already experienced valleys
and peaks very early in the season of a first-season coaching regime and could be
poised to plummet. Who was cut by the Dolphins? Sage Rosenfels, the incredible dope,
er, quarterback who ignited Houston’s latest meltdown with a bad fumble that was
returned for a late-fourth quarter TD by Indy. Two possible scenarios: Rosenfels will earn
a game ball against the franchise that cut him loose two years ago, or sickly Matt Schaub
will get healthy, start again and elevate their performance. HOUSTON, 26-14.
*NEW ORLEANS over OAKLAND by 5
How fast is Oakland’s new Cable connection? Their new head coach was offensive line coach
of Atlanta for just one season in 2006, not enough time to have fully grasped what goes on
with then-NFC South rival Saints, and the current band of players he inherited are usually
good for shorting out a few of their own circuits. Oakland’s supposedly vaunted running
game has Justin Fargas off a groin tear, Darren McFadden with a turf toe, and short-yardage
guy Michael Bush, who isn’t Reggie of New Orleans (not that Reggie is anything “special†or
“magicalâ€) and can be rendered moot if the Saints achieve a two-score lead. But 155 rushing
yards per game for Oakland, vs. 5.2 yards per carry allowed by New Orleans, with the
Saints off a short week, favored against a rested stranger, is a situation that forces you to
think “stranger.†Oakland corner DeAngelo Hall has played in coverage against the Saints,
and his task is easier if New Orleans’ best receiver Marques Coltson is still on the sidelines.
But this particular stranger has the potential to do bizarre things. NEW ORLEANS, 27-22.
*INDIANAPOLIS over BALTIMORE by 11
Despite having the advantage of coming off a much needed bye week, the Colts nearly gave
it away to the hapless Texans. Luckily for Peyton Manning and company, Sage Rosenfels single-
handedly choked the game up on a silver platter, turning the ball over three times in the
fourth quarter and blowing a 27-10 lead in the process. Indianapolis remains competitive
within an underwhelming AFC field and can take a major step forward by going over .500
with a victory over the Ravens. Joe Flacco has looked better than anticipated, holding his
own against NFL competition after making the jump from a NCAA Div.-IAA school. However,
you need more than just a strong arm to make it in the NFL and once opponents review
Flacco’s tendencies and weaknesses, the Ravens will be forced to do a better job of protecting
their young QB. While the Ravens defense remains strong, the combination of facing
an offense back on the upswing and being on the road with an inexperienced rookie QB will
prove too much for Baltimore. Despite the Ravens traditionally playing well against tough
competition, they’ve gone 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Indianapolis. The
positive perception of Baltimore’s 2-0 start will take another hit this weekend, setting them
up nicely for an upcoming stretch of games against Miami, Oakland and Cleveland. INDIANPOLIS
24-13.
*NY JETS over CINCINNATI by 8
News headline: “Bengals activate troublesome receiver Henry.†The message was
referring to Henry as the Bengals’ lead jailbird. But is he actually more ‘troublesome’ for the
Jets, as a 6’4â€, 200 pounder opposing small cornerbacks, who, by commanding attention,
creates more room for Cincinnati’s recently-quieted receivers Chad Johnson and T.J.
Houshmanzedeh? The zippy Chatman kid is doing a pretty good receiving job for the Bengals,
too. The Jets’ defense has improved against the run: only 72 yards per game allowed so far.
But when they aren’t intercepting passes, they’re allowing 70% pass completions by opposing
quarterbacks. Marvin Lewis is the kind of defensive coordinator who will take away the
deep ball and force Brett Favre to be patient, especially as he sees Favre all juiced up and
feeling like Superman again after tossing 6 TDs in his most recent game. Patient? Favre?
Imagine that? 0-5 SU Cincinnati had the lead or was within a point of it in three of their last
four fourth quarters, and will show up, for a while, anyway. But they aren’t very good and are
due for a stink job. Will the Jets be flatski off the byeski? No matter what you think on that
one, yay or nay, it would only be a guess, so don’t obsess. NY JETS, 31-23.
*MINNESOTA over DETROIT by 14
The Lions are so inept that in the week that saw franchise anchor, team president Matt
Millen, finally thrown overboard after seven years of utter futility. This is a franchise going
nowhere fast, literally standing upright in quicksand for nearly a decade. Now Jon Kitna is
dealing with back spasms and being pulled for Dan Orlovsky, who suffers a high ankle sprain.
Whither Drew Stanton? Minnesota is coming off a short week of rest after another Monday
night appearance, but lacking an extra day of rest doesn’t make up for the immense talent
differential between these two teams. Even with two supremely talented wide receivers in
Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, the Lions have been unable to mount a consistent passing
attack. (Wide receivers aren’t all that important, anyway. Offensive lines are.) Despite claims
that they would utilize more four-wide sets to open up the field, the Lions put up 131 yards
passing against the Bears even though they were in catch-up mode for the entire game.We
caution against dwelling on the past, but sometimes a team is so bad that you have no choice
but to avert your eyes. MINNESOTA 27-13.
*ATLANTA over CHICAGO by 3
Chicago is coming off two opponents that could not hurt their defense between the tackles
-- Philadelphia and Detroit. The Bears are thinking about what monsters they are, first making
those nationally televised goal line stands against the Eagles, then “holding†the Lions to
54 rushing yards with DT Tommie Harris on the sidelines. ‘Oooh, I'm Urlacher and I stop the
run. Respect me and my defensive teammates. Put us all in the Hall of Fame immediately.’
Whatever. Beating any Cover-2 defense means pounding the four-man front with a cannonball
running back like Atlanta’s Michael Turner, having an outside-running option like Jerious
Norwood for Chicago to chase and get winded against, and having a receiver to outrun the
safeties after they have been forced to come up for run support – hello, Atlanta WR Roddy
White. ATLANTA, 23-20.
PHILADELPHIA over *SAN FRANCISCO by 10
It’s been a long time since the 49ers have been able to hang with the Eagles – five years in
fact. Of course, the teams have only faced off three times during that time span, but there’s
no disputing that these two franchises have been at opposite ends of the spectrum during
that time. Even with some glimmers of hope for the 49ers this season, there’s no doubt as
to where these respective franchises are headed this year. The Eagles are once again
amongst the best of the NFC, while San Francisco’s two victories have come against two of
the worst teams in football. San Francisco football is encapsulated by two plays from this
season: Mike Nolan challenging a six-yard pass on New Orleans 2nd-and-6 two weeks ago,
and J.T. O’Sullivan scrambling out of the pocket, unable to find a receiver even with great
protection, and ultimately flinging the ball out of bounds on a 4th-and-11. This is not a winning
football team and while they can hang with the dregs of the NFL, the Eagles are not one
of those teams. Bryan Westbrook will be one week healthier, ticked off coming off a loss, and
Donovan McNabb has managed to hang tough through his usual assortment of nagging
injuries. San Francisco runs the gauntlet through week nine – expect their traditionally poor
record at that point. PHILADELPHIA 29-19.
DALLAS over *ARIZONA by 10
The Cowboys can score points. They can also be scored upon. The Cardinals can score
points. They can also be scored upon. Each quarterback has a habit of putting the ball in the
other team’s hands during their own drive, which can lead to points being scored quickly by
the other team’s defense, in what already appears to be a game destined for a large number
of points by both offenses. If you think the case for a higher-than-average final score is
being “Overâ€-stated, then you are correct. Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt is an exoffensive
coordinator whose defense lacks pressure players. He knows that his victories will
usually require outscoring the other side, not winning a defensive staredown. Going into this
match-up, Dallas – a weak-minded team of talents that believes its press clippings -- finally
knows they need to have the killer instinct from the first quarter to the finish, because the
Cardinals’ offense will keep coming at them. DALLAS, 39-29.
GREEN BAY over *SEATTLE by 1
The story here will be two injured quarterbacks battling through their injuries to maintain
some semblance of effectiveness. Matt Hasselbeck gutted it through the Giants game last
week, despite Seattle getting smoked, after suffering a painful-looking knee injury early on
in the game. It remains to be seen whether a week of rest will provide relief, but his targets
once again remain inconsistent and elusive after Deion Branch suffered another injury and
the cast of no-name receivers failed to step up. But they weren’t going to win that game,
anyway. 44-6, 10-6, what does it matter? The 44-6 buys some extra points in the line. Aaron
Rodgers is playing through a sprained shoulder for the Packers, but showed impressive
resilience to pain while throwing for three touchdowns in a losing effort against Atlanta. Nice,
but now go out and do it on the noisy road against a desperate, 1-3 SU home team that your
guys embarrassed in the playoffs last winter in the snow. GREEN BAY 24-23.
*SAN DIEGO over NEW ENGLAND by 11
Nagging injuries to LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates have hurt the offense’s rhythm,
despite Phillip Rivers’ stellar performance, and a defense sorely missing Shawn Merriman
has been unable to stop most opponents. Standing at 2-3, the Chargers need to do something
to fix the course of their season. Luckily for them, the Patriots have been nearly undone
by the injury to Tom Brady, with the team showing inconsistency on both sides of the ball.
However, the bye week helped them regroup and take down the 49ers in a non-conference
road game that could have tested the group’s mental fortitude. All that being said, it was a
game against the lowly 49ers, and a real test looms this week. Matt Cassel has looked competent,
at best, and has looked shaky against effective pass rushes, throwing three picks to
go with three touchdowns this season. This will be a good early season test for expected
playoff contenders who find their status threatened. The Chargers have double-revenge and
despite the injuries, are a lot healthier than they were when they gave the Pats a game in the
AFC Championship, and New England is much more vulnerable than they were when they
ripped the Chargers by 24 points in the ticked-off, post Spygate game, another one of Norv’s
non-cranked, regular-season East Coast no-shows. SAN DIEGO 30-19.
MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 13
NY GIANTS over *CLEVELAND by 6
Crunch, crunch, crunch. As expected, the Giants’ front four met at Matt Hasselbeck early last
Sunday, setting the monstrous tone that cracked Seattle’s fine china. The Giants tried to eliminate
Browns’ QB Derek Anderson for this outing in a pre-season game, when the Browns
left him exposed and the Giants’ pass rush knocked him upside the head. Almost, not quite,
but this game counts for real and New York’s fearsome foursome and then some have another
shot or ten to take at the guy. If Anderson is either knocked out, or pulled out following a
sluggish performance, it would be Cleveland’s cue to slip Brady Quinn behind center to create
some wasteful study time for the Giants, and an opportunity for the Monday Night nerds
to dive into Quinn’s jockstrap for meaningless analysis of an overrated individual in a team
game. More important for Cleveland off their bye week would be the return from injury of LBs
Willie McGinest and Beau Bell, WR Dontae Stallworth, and OL Ryan Tucker. The Browns have
to find a way to put all the pieces together, use the extra time and “unfamiliarity angle†to
spring surprise blitzes, and avoid getting their 3-4 defense worn down into submission by
the Giants’ running game. One thing to note: Because the exhibition result was 37-34, plenty
of people will consider it an instant trend. NY GIANTS, 20-14
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2008 8:28pm -
0 likes
gold sheet extra
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA - NFL
CAROLINA
Series and team trends favor Carolina when the Panthers
travel to Tampa Bay for an NFC South showdown against the Bucs
Sunday afternoon. Raymond James Stadium certainly hasn’t
spooked Carolina, which has won five straight off Dale Mabry
Highway (covering 4 of those). And the Panthers have been one
of the NFL’s most-accomplished underdogs this decade, especially
so away from home, where they’ve recorded a 21-8-2 spread mark
their last 31 when receiving points. That’s also why Carolina is a
featured recommendation (along with HC John Fox) in the NFL
Coach as Underdog system this week.
OAKLAND at NEW ORLEANS...Raiders have covered their first 2
as visitor TY. They’re also “over†3-1 TY and “over†13-6-1 since ‘07.
Saints have won and covered first two as host in ‘08, and now “overâ€
16-6-1 last 23 on board. Tech edge-“Over,†based on “totalsâ€
trends.
BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS...Ravens “over†6-3-1 their last 10
as visitor. Colts 0-2 SU and vs. line in Lucas Oil Stadium, though “overâ€
in both. Tech edge-“Over†and slight to Ravens, based on
“totals†and recent team trends.
CINCINNATI at NY JETS...Bengals now “under†8-3 last 11 dating
to late ‘07. Mangini 2-1 as chalk TY, and throwing out LY’s 0-3-1 chalk
mark, Jets 6-2-1 laying points since ‘06 for Mangini. Tech edge-
“Under†and slight to Jets, based on recent team and
“totals†trends.
CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY...Panthers have won last 5 trips to
Raymond James Stadium, covering 4 of those. If Carolina a dog note
Fox’s 20-8-2 spread mark last 30 in role. Gruden “over†8-3 last 11
dating to late ‘07. Tech edge-Panthers and “over,†based on
series, team, and “totals†trends.
DETROIT at MINNESOTA...Vikes 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 in
series. Lions 2-8 vs. line away since LY, 4-14 since ‘06. They’re also
“over†14-5 last 19 as visitor (1-1 TY). Tech edge-Vikings and
“over,†based on series and “totals†trends.
CHICAGO at ATLANTA...Falcs “over†first 2 at Georgia Dome TY,
now “over†8-2 last 10 as host. Bears “over†27-14-1 last 42 on board.
Tech edge-“Over,†based on “totals†trends.
MIAMI at HOUSTON...Dolphins “over†6-3 last 9 since late ‘07,
Texans “over†first 3 TY, now “over†16-7-1 last 24 since late ‘06.
Tech edge-“Over,†based on “totals†trends.
ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON...Rams 5-15 vs. line since ‘07, 2-7 that
span as road dog. Rams also “under†7-3 away since ‘07. Tech
edge-Skins and slight to “under,†based on team and “totalsâ€
trends.
JACKSONVILLE at DENVER...Broncos “over†4-1 TY, now “overâ€
20-6 last 26 since late ‘06, and “over†13-3 last 16 at Invesco Field.
JV “over†11-2 its last 13 on road. If Jags a dog note 7-2 mark on road
in role since ‘07. Tech edge-“Over†and slight to Jags, if dog,
based on “totals†and team trends.
PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO...Birds 12-6-1 vs. line on road
since ‘06, but note Andy Reid just 4-12-1 vs. number last 17 as chalk
(0-1 TY). Niners now “under†8-3 last 11 at Candlestick since LY.
Tech edge-slight to “under†and 49ers, based on “totalsâ€
and team trends.
DALLAS at ARIZONA...Whisenhunt 7-3 vs. line as host since
becoming Cards’ HC in ‘07, and 2-0 as home dog that span. Cards
5-2 as home dog since ‘06. Cards “over†19-7 last 26 since late ‘06.
Tech edge-slight to Cards and “over,†based on team and
“totals†trends.
GREEN BAY at SEATTLE...Pack “over†4-1 TY, “over†18-5 since
‘07. Seattle “over†first 4 TY, now “over" last 7 and 9 of last 11 dating
to late ‘07. Holmgren also 19-9-1 vs. line at home since ‘05 (1-1 TY).
Tech edge-Seahawks and “over,†based on team and “totalsâ€
trends.
NEW ENGLAND at SAN DIEGO...Belichick 5-1 as dog since ‘06, 24-
11-1 in role last 36 as dog overall. Tech edge-slight to Patriots,
based on Belichick dog mark.
NY GIANTS at CLEVELAND (Monday, October 13)...Eli has won
last 12 SU away from home, and Giants have covered 9 straight and
11 of 12 away from home. Romeo “under†last 5 by Lake Erie. Tech
edge-Giants and slight to “under,†based on team and
“totals†trends.
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS A UNDERDOG-CAROLINA over Tampa Bay@, NEW
ENGLAND over San Diego, and dog in J'VILLE-DENVER game.
FAMILIARITY-TAMPA BAY over Carolina@.
SCORE 40 LETDOWN-DALLAS over Arizona, CLEVELAND over
NY Giants.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-SEATTLE over Green Bay.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-ATLANTA over Chicago, TAMPA
BAY over Carolina, CLEVELAND over N.Y. Giants.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with
other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation,
consult Technician’s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves
after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 2:13am -
0 likes
GOLDSHEET EXTRA - NCAA
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
SOUTH CAROLINA
Series trends have a way of enduring in the SEC, which is why
re-energized South Carolina looks to be a worthwhile recommendation
for its Saturday date at Lexington against Kentucky.
Recent meetings have certainly favored the Gamecocks, who
have won and covered all three meetings since HC Steve Spurrier
took over in 2005. USC has performed admirably on the road for
the ‘ol ball coach, standing 11-4-1 vs. the line as visitor since ‘05,
and if the Cocks are getting any points, note their 8-2-1 road dog
mark under Spurrier.
UCLA
UCLA isn’t earning many style points this season, but the
Bruins have begun a mild comeback, covering their last two, and
look to continue their ascent Saturday at Autzen Stadium when
traveling to face Oregon. The Bruins have been one of the
nation’s best underdogs lately, standing 12-2 their last 14 as the
“short,†and are a noteworthy 35-18-2 overall vs. the number since
early in the 2004 season. The Bruins are also featured recommendations
in both the Power Underdogs and College Coach as
Underdog (with HC Rick Neuheisel) systems this week.
NEVADA
Get out of the way! That’s the best recommendation we have for
upcoming opponents of Nevada, which has picked up a lot of
momentum in recent weeks and looks to extend its uptick Saturday
at Mackay Stadium when welcoming New Mexico State to Reno.
The Wolf Pack is hot, reflected in its noteworthy +8.25 “AFSâ€
(“Away from Spreadâ€) number its past two games. And Nevada has
been an extremely reliable chalk proposition in Reno since HC
Chris Ault returned to the sidelines in 2004, recording a stellar 13-
2 mark laying points at home since. Meanwhile, the Aggies aren’t
about to scare anyone these days when playing away from Las
Cruces, as they’re only 5-13 as a road dog since HC Hal Mumme
arrived in 2005.
TEXAS TECH
We can’t blame Nebraska for playing so many games at home
this season. After all, the Cornhuskers haven’t traveled well
lately, covering just 1 of their last 9 (1-7-1 vs. number) away from
Lincoln. And this week’s trip to Lubbock to face potent Texas
Tech might have Nebraska wishing it didn’t leave home at all,
especially considering the Red Raiders’ 21-10 spread mark their
last 31 at home, and 16-8 record laying double digits since 2003.
The Huskers’ recent performances aren’t too encouraging, either,
dropping their last 2 against the line while recording a poor -18.25
“AFS†(“Away from Spreadâ€) number in those outings, while the Red
Raiders are a solid +11.25 “AFS†their last two games
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the tech edge!
COLLEGE
CLEMSON at WAKE FOREST (Thursday, October 9)...Wake
had covered 4 straight in series prior to LY’s 44-10 loss at Death
Valley. But if Tommy B. a dog note 8-0 spread mark as short since
’05, 15-4 in role since ’03. Tech edge-slight to Clemson, if
dog, based on team trends.
UAB at HOUSTON (Thursday, October 9)...UAB just 3-7 vs. line
last 10 on board since mid ’07, including 49-10 home loss LY vs.
Houston. Tech edge-slight to UH, based on extended UAB
negatives.
LOUISVILLE at MEMPHIS (Friday, October 10)...Cards now 2-8
as chalk (0-2 TY) since Kragthorpe arrived LY. Dog team is 11-3 vs.
line in Card games since LY. Tech edge-slight to Memphis,
based on recent Card chalk woes.
EAST CAROLINA at VIRGINIA...ECU no covers last 3 TY. Skip 0-
2 vs. line as visitor TY after 14-4 mark in role previous 3 seasons. Skip
has now failed to cover his last 3 as visiting chalk, but still 28-14 vs.
line at ECU since ’05. Tech edge-ECU, based on team trends.
SYRACUSE at WEST VIRGINIA...WVU has covered 6 of last 7
meetings. Cuse has actually fared a bit better as road dog (7-9 in role)
than home dog (4-9) vs. spread since Robinson took over in ’05, but
Orange still 4-13 vs. line last 17 on board. Tech edge-slight to
WVU, based on Cuse negatives.
IOWA at INDIANA...Indiana has won and covered last 2 in underdog
fashion vs. Iowa. Iowa also no covers last 8 as visiting chalk.
But Hoosiers 0-4 vs. line TY. Tech edge-slight to Iowa, based
on recent Indiana woes.
MINNESOTA at ILLINOIS...Gophers have covered their last 4 on
board TY, and have covered 3 straight and 4 of last 5 as visitor dating
to late LY. Minnesota has also covered last 4 as underdog dating to late
LY. Tech edge-slight to Minnesota, based on recent trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Spartans have covered
7 of their last 9 away from home. NU, however, has covered the last
4 in series, and Cats are 7-3 vs. line as home dog since ’05. Tech
edge-NU, based on series trends.
TEXAS vs. OKLAHOMA (at Dallas)... Mack has covered last 3 in
series (although he lost SU LY) after Stoops had covered previous
5 meetings. Stoops now 23-11-1 vs. spread last 35 on board since
late ‘05. If Mack a dog note 3-0 mark in rare role since ’05. Tech edgeslight
to OU, based on recent trends.
EASTERN MICHIGAN at ARMY...EMU 5-12 vs. number last 17 on
board. Black Knights own 2-game cover streak! Tech edge-slight
to Army, based on team trends.
IOWA STATE at BAYLOR...If Bears favored note 6-2 mark in rare
role since ’05 (1-0 TY). Chizik 8-4 vs. line as dog since LY (1-1 TY).
Tech edge-slight to Baylor, based on recent trends.
SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY...Spurrier has won and covered
the last 3 years vs. UK. If Cocks a dog, note 5-1-1 mark in role
on road since ’06, 8-2-1 since ’05. Tech edge-SC, especially if
dog, based on team trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at BUFFALO...Turner Gill 4-1 vs. line TY,
now 9-3 vs. line last 12 on boaard. Tech edge-slight to Buffalo,
based on recent trends.
VANDERBILT at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Sly Croom 1-0 vs. line at
home TY but just 3-9 vs. line at Starkville since ’06 and 5-12 vs. spread
as host since ’05. Vandy now 4-1 vs. line last 5 as chalk dating to
mid ’06, and 13-4 vs. line 17 as visitor, as well as 5-0 vs. line TY. Tech
edge-Vandy, based on team trends.
UTAH at WYOMING...Wyo no covers first 5 on board TY, now 0-
12 vs. line last 12, 0-13-1 last 14 on board.! Utes 7-2 as DD chalk since
’06 (2-0 in role away), now 17-5-1 laying DDs since ’03. Tech edge-
Utah, based on Wyo negatives.
KANSAS STATE at TEXAS A&M...If A&M a dog note 3-8 mark last
11 in role since late ’06. Ags also 0-3 vs. line at Kyle Field TY for Mike
Sherman, and 5-12 overall vs. number last 17 on board. K-State,
however, poor 0-7 as road chalk since ’04. Tech edge-slight to
KSU, based on recent A&M woes.
TEMPLE at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...CMU 10-3-2 vs. line at home
since ’05. Chips also 15-6-2 vs. line as chalk since ’05 (0-1-1 TY).
Tech edge-slight to CMU, based on team trends.
PURDUE at OHIO STATE...Tiller just 1-5-1 vs. line last 7 since late
LY. Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on recent Purdue woes.
TCU at COLORADO STATE...Frogs have won and covered handily
last 3 since joining MWC in ’05, and have won and covered 4 straight
in series dating to ’02 Liberty Bowl. Frogs have covered first 2 as
road chalk TY after failing all 3 tries in role LY. TCU also 7-1 its last
8 as chalk. Tech edge-TCU, based on series trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at MISSOURI...Gundy only 6-7 as dog since
’06 but he has covered 5 straight since late LY. Gundy 0-5 as DD dog
since ’05, and Cowboys 0-7 in role since ’03. Pinkel 15-3-1 last 19
on board since late ’06, also 12-3 last 15 as chalk. Tech edge-slight
to Mizzou, based on team trends.
TENNESSEE at GEORGIA...Big revenge for Georgia after getting
whipped the last two years by Vols. Road team was 5-0-1 vs. line
last 6 in series prior to LY. Vols only 3-3-1 as dog since LY but 14-
8-1 in role since ’03. Tech edge-slight to Tennessee, based on
team trends.
ARIZONA STATE at SOUTHERN CAL...Dennis Erickson 0-5 vs. line
as dog since arriving at ASU LY. Tech edge-SC, based on ASU
dog woes.
UCLA at OREGON...“Short†has covered 5 of last 6 meetings.
Bellotti 14-4 as Autzen chalk since ’05, 9-2 laying DDs at home that
span. Bruins, however, 12-2 their last 14 as dog, and 35-18-1 vs.
line their last 54 on board. Tech edge- UCLA, based on team and
series dog trends.
TOLEDO at MICHIGAN...Amstutz 4-15 vs. line as visitor since ’05
(1-1 TY). Rockets also 1-11 vs. line last 12 as non-MAC visitor. But
Wolverines only 2-10 vs. line last 12 as non-Big Ten host. Tech edgeslight
to UM, based on team trends.
NOTRE DAME at NORTH CAROLINA...Weis only 5-9 as dog since
close loss to SC in ’05, 12-21-1 overall vs. line last 34 on board. Tech
edge-slight to UNC, based on team trends.
ARKANSAS at AUBURN...Petrino no covers first 4 TY, although
road team has covered last 3 in series. Tigers have failed to cover
their last 5 TY, and 6-11 vs. spread as Jordan-Hare chalk since ’06. Tech
edge-slight to Auburn, based on recent Razorback woes.
NEW MEXICO STATE at NEVADA...Mumme only 5-13 as road dog
with Aggies since arriving in ’05 (2-6 since LY). Ault 19-8 as chalk
(13-2 as Reno chalk) since reappearing on Nevada sidelines in ’04,
and 7-1 as DD chalk that span. Tech edge-Nevada, based on
team trends.
MIAMI-OHIO at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NIU 4-0 vs. line for new HC
Jerry Kill! Huskies have now covered their last 7 on board. RedHawks
have covered last 4 as MAC road dog but just 1-4 vs. line last 5 on
board overall. Tech edge-NIU, based on recent trends.
NEW MEXICO at BYU...Visitor has covered last 6 meetings!
Rocky, however, only 1-5 his last 6 as dog, and Cougs 10-3 vs.
line last 13 as home chalk. Tech edge-slight to BYU, based on
recent team trends.
WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON STATE... Cougs no covers first
5 TY, and have only covered 1 of last 8 against Beavers. Wazzu also
just 2-7 vs. number last 8 as visitor. Riley 8-2 vs. line last 10 at
Corvallis, and 4-0 as DD chalk since ’05. Tech edge-OSU, based
on team and series trends.
ARIZONA at STANFORD...Tree has covered 4 of last 5 meetings.
Cardinal has also won and covered last 3 as host since late LY. Cats
4-1 vs. number TY, all as chalk. Tech edge-slight to Tree, based
on series trends.
BOWLING GREEN at AKRON...Falcs 3-0 vs. line away TY and 8-
2 vs. number on road since LY. Zips, however, are 7-1-1 vs. line last
9 on board since late LY. Tech edge-slight to BGSU, based on
team trends.
OHIO at KENT STATE…Kent State 1-11 last 12 vs. line! Road team
has covered last 3 meetings, and Ohio U 16-6-1 vs. line last 23 reg.-
season games. Tech edge-Ohio, based on team and recent
series trends.
RUTGERS at CINCINNATI...Cincy has won outright the last 2 years
as a dog. Bearcats 5-1 vs. line at home under Kelly, and Cincy now
10-2 vs. spread last 12 as host since ’06. Brian Kelly teams 12-1-1
vs. line last 14 as host. Tech edge-Cincy, based on series and
team trends.
NEBRASKA at TEXAS TECH...Callahan’s Huskers were 1-7-1 vs.
line their last 9 away from Lincoln, and 1-4 as visiting dog last 2 years.
Leach 3-0 vs. line TY and 21-10 vs. number last 31 as host. Tech
edge-TT, based on team trends.
COLORADO at KANSAS...CU only 2-8 as dog since LY and 4-12-
1 vs. number as short since Hawkins arrived in ’06. Tech edge-KU,
based on team trends.
PENN STATE at WISCONSIN...Home team in control of recent
meetings, winning and covering last 4 and 6-1 vs. line last 7. Shades
just 3-8-1 vs. line as visitor since ’06. If Shades a dog note 1-5 mark
in role since ’06. Badgers 16-8-1 vs. number last 25 at Camp Randall.
Tech edge-Wisconsin, based on series trends.
UCF at MIAMI-FLORIDA...UCF no covers first 2 away TY and now
no covers 4 of last 5 away from Orlando. Miami, however, continues
to struggle as home chalk under Shannon (0-2 TY, 2-7 since Shannon
took over LY, 10-26 vs. spread last 36 in role). Tech edge-slight
to UCF, based on Miami’s extended home chalk woes.
LSU at FLORIDA...Gators have covered last 3, 4 of last 5, and
7 of last 9 in series. LSU only 3-9-2 vs. number last 14 on board,
and 3-6-1 last 10 as visitor. Urban Meyer 7-2 vs. line last 9 as host
(all as chalk. Tech edge-slight to Florida, based on series
trends.
UTAH STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...SJSU dynamite lately at home
5-0 vs. line at Spartan Stadium since LY, covers in last 9, and 10-1
vs. line as host. Spartans also 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board. Tech
edge-SJSU, based on team trends.
TULSA at SMU...Tulsa on fire, covering last 5 on board since late
LY. Ponies 0-7 vs. line as host since LY (0-1 in ’08). Tech edge-
Tulsa, based on recent trends.
BOISE STATE at SOUTHERN MISS...Broncos just 3-7 favored
away from blue carpet since ’06). USM has covered first 2 as dog
TY after 1-6 mark in role previous two seasons for Bower. Tech
edge-slight to USM, based on team trends.
TULANE at UTEP...If Miners chalk, note 1-13 spread mark last 14
in role. Tech edge-Tulane, based on team trends.
AIR FORCE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Chuck Long actually 7-2 vs. line
last 9 vs. number at Qualcomm! Aztecs also 4-2 last 6 as home dog.
Force, however, 12-4 vs. spread for HC Calhoun. Tech edgeslight
to AFA, based on team trends.
IDAHO at FRESNO STATE...FSU dominant lately, winning and
covering handily the last 3 meetings. Vandals 0-5 vs. line TY and now
1-13 vs. number last 14 on board. Tech edge-Fresno, based on
Idaho negatives.
LA TECH at HAWAII...Home team has covered the last 4 meetings.
Tech edge-slight to UH, based on series trends
.
BALL STATE at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Ball 5-0 vs. line TY, now
16-5 vs. spread last 21 on board. Tech edge-Ball State, based
on team trends.
UL-MONROE at ARKANSAS STATE...ULM has covered the last 3
meetings. ASU only 4-7 vs. line last 11 as chalk. Tech edge-ULM,
based on series and team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at FLA. INTERNATIONAL...Golden
Panthers have covered 5 of last 6 on board since late LY. Tech
edge-slight to FIU, based on recent trends.
UL-LAFAYETTE at NORTH TEXASU...Todd Dodge 5-11 vs. line
since LY, and UNT 12-27-2 vs. line last 41 on board. Tech edge-
ULL, based on recent UNT negatives
SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT
COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
COACH & POINTSPREAD-BALL STATE over Western Kentucky,
BYU over New Mexico@, CINCINNATI over Rutgers, EAST CAROLINA
over Virginia@, KANSAS over Colorado, MICHIGAN STATE
over Northwestern@, MISSOURI over Oklahoma State, OHIO STATE
over Purdue@, OREGON over Ucla@, TCU over Colorado State.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-Dog in CLEMSON-WAKE
FOREST game (10/09), UL-MONROE over Arkansas State, NEW
MEXICO over Byu@, UCLA over Oregon@.
RIVALRY DOGS-TEXAS over Oklahoma.
POWER UNDERDOGS-Dog in CLEMSON-WAKE FOREST game
(10/09), ARIZONA STATE over Southern Cal, LSU over Florida@,
SOUTHERN MISS over Boise State, TENNESSEE over Georgia@,
TEXAS over Oklahoma, UCLA over Oregon@, and dog in PENN
STATE-WISCONSIN and SOUTH CAROLINA-KENTUCKY games.
PAINFUL MEMORY-ARIZONA STATE over Southern Cal, GEORGIA
over Tennessee@, OREGON over Ucla@, WISCONSIN over
Penn State.
POWER REVENGE-GEORGIA over Tennessee@, TEXAS over
Oklahoma, WISCONSIN over Penn State.
RESTED HOME WINNERS-CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Temple,
SAN JOSE STATE over Utah State.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES-Dog in EASTERN MICHIGAN-ARMY
game.
STREAKBUSTERS-off pointspread win-HOUSTON over Uab
(10/09), EASTERN MICHIGAN overe Army@, HAWAII over La Tech,
SYRACUSE over West Virginia, UCF over Miami-Fla., VIRGINIA
over East Carolina@; off pointspread loss-NEW MEXICO over Byu,
NORTHWESTERN over Michigan State@, ARIZONA over Stanford.
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 2:18am -
0 likes
STATFOX / PLATINUM SHEET- NCAA
10/9/2008 (103) CLEMSON at (104) WAKE FOREST
The best teams in college football, or those you should be looking
to back as favorites in big games, are those with offensive balance.
Wake Forest doesn’t have it. The Demon Deacons are struggling to
get anything going on the ground this year, averaging just 85 YPG and
2.4 YPR. This is a big sore spot for a team with BCS aspirations, and
has a lot to do with why they are only putting up 8.2 PPG in the first
half of their first five contests. Here they will be playing as a favorite
against Clemson for the first time since prior to at least ’92, a span of
16 games or more. Furthermore, in the last two seasons when Wake
should have been more competitive with Clemson, it has resulted in
wins by Clemson of 34 and 10 points. The Tigers DO have that key
balanced attack, averaging 5 YPR and 7.6
PYA. That balance will be enough for HC
Tommy Bowden’s team to get out of Wake
with a crucial win on Thursday night.
Play: Clemson +2.5
10/11/2008 (119) TEXAS vs. (120)
OKLAHOMA
Texas and Oklahoma have played similar
schedules to date and each team is 5-0,
having not lost a game ATS either. Texas’
point differential is +35.8 PPG, Oklahoma’s
is +35.8 PPG. Both teams are putting up
over 6.5 yards per play on offense with OU
have a little better YPP defense. On top of
that, the last four games of this magnified
head-to-head series have been split 2-2. So
why then is Oklahoma nearly a TD favorite
in this neutral site game? PERCEPTION
of the #1 ranking. Quite frankly, if Texas
would have been perceived to be as good
as the Sooners at the outset of the season,
it might be #1 at this point. There are two
trends that catch my eye here as well:
OKLAHOMA is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in
road games versus good rushing defenses
- allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Plus, Texas is 26-13
ATS as an underdog. I’ve studied this game extensively and don’t see
any reason why it should be an easy win. In fact, I expect this to be the
most competitive Red River Rivalry game in many years. I’m grabbing
the points.
Play: Texas +7
10/11/2008 (143) TENNESSEE at (144) GEORGIA
Have there been any rumblings as to Phil Fullmer being on the hot seat
in Tennessee? It would seem to me on the surface that this team is
losing its position among the nation’s elite teams. However, sometimes
you have to go below the surface to see the truth in a club. The fact
is that this team is playing very competitively against an awfully tough
schedule to this point, especially on the defensive side of the ball. In
fact, they are holding teams 9.0 points below their normal scoring
averages. On offense they are struggling a bit at 18.0 PPG, but their
opponents thus far have yielded a stifling 20.3 PPG. If you do the math
using these numbers in this game vs. Georgia, these Outplay Factor
calculations would project a score of Georgia 25, Tennessee 17. The
Bulldogs aren’t exactly clicking at this point and will be in for tough
battle against a desperate Tennessee team. If you need more reason
to back the Vols here, simply read StatFox Doug’s article on page 17.
Play: Tennessee +13.5
10/11/2008 (175) PENN ST at (176) WISCONSIN
Camp Randall Stadium has been a tough place to play for Penn State
over the years, no matter how good the Nittany Lions have been. In
their last four trips here, they have been
held to exactly 3-points on three separate
occasions. In fact, if you look back and
study the history of Joe Paterno’s team’s
performance on the Big Ten road against
better teams, you certainly can’t like what
you see. Much of it can be seen in a trend
like this: PENN ST is 14-29 ATS (-17.9
Units) versus good defensive teams -
allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992.
Wisconsin still has to be considered one of
the better teams in the conference, it has
just been snake bitten by a treacherous
4-game schedule that will be ending with
this game. Let’s not forget that the Badgers
have won 25 of their last 27 games at
home. This is a tough spot for a team to
cover this big of a number on the road in
a conference game. Remember, only take
single-digit underdogs if you think they are
capable of winning the game outright.
Play: Wisconsin +5
10/11/2008 (179) LSU at (180) FLORIDA
With all due respect to the recent LSU
run in the SEC, I’m having trouble seeing
how they plan to keep up with Florida in the Swamp. Defense can win
you games, as explained by Doug on page 17, but there is just too
big of an offensive edge in this game with the Gators, and I feel the
need to exploit it. One team, Florida, is also much better prepared for
this showdown, having played a much tougher schedule to date. In
fact, the Tigers’ defensive numbers are only this good because they
have played opponents that have combined to average 15.2 PPG on
offense, ironically, the same number that LSU allows. This means they
are not even outplaying the opposition on that side of the ball. In fact,
if you put together the StatFox Outplay Factor line for this game, you’ll
find that Florida should be favored by -20.4 points. This is a vastly
understated home field advantage for the Gators. LSU is nowhere
near as good as it has been the past few seasons. Don’t fall for the
hype of the matchup, these are two different level teams.
Play: Florida -4
STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:
1. W VIRGINIA (-25) over SYRACUSE 10
2. VIRGINIA (+4.5) over E CAROLINA 9.5
3. HAWAII (-6.5) over LOUISIANA TECH 9.5
4. TEXAS TECH (-18.5) over NEBRASKA 8.5
5. ARIZONA (-6) over STANFORD 8
6. CINCINNATI (-8) over RUTGERS 7
TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. TEMPLE (+10.5) over C MICHIGAN 19
2. MIAMI (-14) over UCF 16
3. FLORIDA (-5) over LSU 16
4. N ILLINOIS (-10.5) over MIAMI OHIO 16
5. TOLEDO (+18) over MICHIGAN 14
6. NEW MEXICO (+23) over BYU 13
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 7 (ATS & Total)
Friday, 10/10/2008 (107) LOUISVILLE vs. (108) MEMPHIS
Play Against - Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a
road win (29-5 since 1992.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating=4*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (6-1). L10 Seasons: (16-3).
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (187) TULANE vs. (188) UTEP
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULANE) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home
favorite (24-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating=4*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (4-1). L5 Seasons: (11-1). Since 1992: (34-5).
MULTIPLE GAMES
Play On - A home team (FLA ATLANTIC, NORTH TEXAS) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season,
after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse (39-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.6%, +28 units.
Rating=4*).
The situation’s record this season is: (1-1). L3 Seasons: (17-3). L10 Seasons: (63-60). Since 1992: (95-85).
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 7 (ATS & Total)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (181) UTAH ST vs. (182) SAN JOSE ST
Dick Tomey is 22-3 UNDER (+18.7 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of SAN JOSE ST. The average
score was Tomey 23.2, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 6*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (141) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (142) MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA ST is 12-0 ATS (+12 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992. The average score was
OKLAHOMA ST 38.8, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (131) UTAH vs. (132) WYOMING
WYOMING is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was
WYOMING 12.1, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (119) TEXAS vs. (120) OKLAHOMA
Mack Brown is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of TEXAS. The
average score was Brown 42.7, OPPONENT 21 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (155) NEW MEXICO ST vs. (156) NEVADA
NEVADA is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. The average score
was NEVADA 28.1, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (141) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (142) MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA ST is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. The average
score was OKLAHOMA ST 24.1, OPPONENT 30.7 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (121) E MICHIGAN vs. (122) ARMY
E MICHIGAN is 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992. The average score was E MICHIGAN 17.4,
OPPONENT 34.9 - (Rating = 3*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (181) UTAH ST vs. (182) SAN JOSE ST
Dick Tomey is 27-7 UNDER (+19.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday as the coach of SAN JOSE ST. The average score
was Tomey 21.8, OPPONENT 26.2 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (137) PURDUE vs. (138) OHIO ST
Joe Tiller is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach
of PURDUE. The average score was Tiller 30.5, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 4*)
Defensive Underdogs are Superior Wagers
It was probably the middle 1990’s when I first ran across a system
for betting college football. For some reason it stuck in my mind,
probably because it always made sense, though for some reason
I never committed to it in the plethora of material I keep track of
in all the various sports. In fact, one part of the original system I
found is not an aspect of this equation, strictly because it’s been
forgotten. As you will read, this will have no affect on how profitable
this defensive underdogs college football betting system can be.
Like most of the systems that I uncover, I prefer to keep it simple,
not having too much to clutter the mind or think about with my
University of Phoenix degree (just kidding). What we want is a
clean system, easy to understand and an easy way to track down
the information. Here it is:
Look to play on a college football team that allows 275 or less
yards per game, particularly in the role of underdog.
The first part of this system makes all the sense in the world, since
the number of teams we’re talking about is very few from year to
year. The old cliché, “defense win championships†holds up, even
in weekly situations, because if any team is holding opponents to
275 or fewer yards, they should be in almost any game they are
playing in.
To prove the point, we went back five years to discover how
good these defensive gems actually were. It must be noted, this
perspective is based on the whole body of work for the season,
not the individual games and team ranking at that moment. This
strengthens the point at the end of any particular year. However,
during the course a season, starting this week, you should have
confidence to consider any team for a potential wager. Never base
a selection on one aspect, yet if you have other reasons to like
specific team, this could be the clincher as a reason to officially
make such a wager.
Starting in 2003, the two best teams in the country that season
were LSU and Oklahoma. Both teams had exceptional regular
seasons and were chosen to play in the BCS championship in
New Orleans. The Tigers ended up holding teams to 252 yards per
game on the way to BCS title and were monster money-makers at
11-2 ATS that season. The only time they were an underdog was
against Oklahoma in season finale. The Sooners had been among
the best defensive teams all season and were unbeaten until they
lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma was never
an underdog in 2003. Miami-FL. ended up being second in the
country in total defense that season and was an underdog twice
that year, both times to Florida State, whom they beat during the
regular season and in the Orange Bowl.
Four teams made the cut in 2004; they were N.C. State, Alabama,
LSU and Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack (5-6) and the Crimson Tide
(6-5) were run of the mill teams because of terrible offenses.
N.C. State finished 82nd nationally and Alabama 97th, proving
even outstanding defenses need some help. Because of these
deficiencies, Bama was 2-2 ATS as underdogs and Wolfpack was
slightly better at 2-1-1 ATS. A year after being the kings of college
football, LSU was 9-3 overall and was 2-1 ATS as underdogs.
Virginia Tech was one of the surprises of 2004 in posting a 9-2
regular season. The Hokies were led a thumping defense and
gave an unbeaten Auburn team all they could handle in the Sugar
Bowl, before falling 16-13, catching six points. They were perfect
3-0 ATS on the receiving end of points.
In 2005, three of the same teams that were on the defensive list
from the previous year were on it again. Virginia Tech, LSU and
Alabama made the roster and Miami-FL reappeared again. These
four universities were barking dogs in the truest sense that season,
posting an 8-1-1 against the spread record, led by the Hokies who
were once against 3-0.
Two seasons ago, the NCAA instituted rule changes to speed
up the college football game, which led 14 fewer plays per game
that season. At the same time, defenses just happened to have a
Defensive Underdogs are Superior Wagers - by Doug Upstone
more dominant season and 10 teams held the opposition to 275
yards or less, led by the omnipresent Hokies of Frank Beamer,
who surrendered just 219.5 yards per game. No question the fewer
plays mattered, based on averages. Of the 14 plays, presume
seven each were on offense and the better defensive teams of that
season allowed 4.4 yards per play, lowering any teams total by at
least 30 yards per game.
It turned out to be a banner campaign for Rutgers, who emerged
from nowhere to hit the national spotlight and their fourth-ranked
defense was 5-0 ATS as underdogs. Michigan won both their
matchups on the receiving end of points and Georgia was 3-1
against the number in the same role. The top 10 defense teams
were 17-9-1 ATS when positioned as underdogs by oddsmakers.
In 2007, those rules were reconfigured and only two teams were
stout enough to repress the opposition from making more than
275 yards of offense. By this time of the last football season,
Ohio State and LSU had distinguished themselves as the two
most talented teams in the country. The Buckeyes arrived earlier
than believed, however the talent was obvious. The Bayou Tigers
didn’t always play their best football for 60 minutes, but they made
plays when they had to. Because these teams were so good,
neither was an underdog until Ohio State was given the role in
the BCS championship game. LSU had their way with coach Jim
Tressel’s Buckeyes, making this the only game that qualified for
this system.
Here is a review of the years of this system against the spread.
2007 0-1
2006 17-9-1
2005 8-1-1
2004 9-4-1
2003 3-0
Total 37-15-3, 71.1 percent
As previously stated, this is with the benefit of looking back, not
being in the present. There are currently 20 teams that are under
the 275-yard threshold. One has to have football acumen to realize
Boston College probably doesn’t figure to be here for long, having
played Kent State, Central Florida and FCS squad Rhode Island.
Louisville is unlikely to be hanging out in this neighborhood for
long, since teams that give 23 points per game, will eventually find
their watermark.
Coach Bob Toledo is making exceptional alterations at Tulane and
the defense is much improved, since the days when a younger
Tommy Bowden had an unbeaten Green Wave squad in 1998.
Nonetheless, the idea of Tulane hanging in the area is ludicrous.
They fell from eight to 17th in total defense after Army ran
roughshod over the Green Wave for 290 yards rushing this past
Saturday. With five of last seven remaining games on the road,
playing in offensive-minded Conference USA, it seems Tulane will
stay with this contingent as likely as the return of “Elf†to NBC.
Just this past weekend, underdog members of this club, Florida
State, South Carolina and Kentucky all covered the linemakers’
number, with the first two winning outright.
Therefore, the teams are on watch list the rest of the way should
be: TCU, ARIZONA, FLORIDA ST, USC, SOUTH CAROLINA,
TENNESSEE, AUBURN, PENN ST, OKLAHOMA, KENTUCKY,
UTAH, GEORGIA TECH, ALABAMA, LSU, SOUTH FLORIDA,
OHIO ST, and FLORIDA. You’ll already see that LSU is the
underdog in this week’s matchup with Florida, and the dog in
Saturday’s South Carolina-Kentucky matchup will also qualify.
Tennessee (at Georgia) is the only other team on the radar for
Week 7.
Being able to Play On a defensive dandy on the receiving end of
points can be a very enjoyable and profitable venture.
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 2:37am -
0 likes
STATFOX / PLATINUM SHEET - NFL
10/12/2008 (213) CHICAGO at (214) ATLANTA
I don’t have any specific statistics with me that will verify my theory,
but one of the situations I like to fade in the NFL is when teams are
going for back-to-back road favorite wins and covers. Conceptually
it just seems like a difficult feat to accomplish. In this case, the
Bears were expected to manhandle the Lions, and they did this past
Sunday. Their opponent in this week’s road chalk spot is a much
better team than Detroit. The Falcons are gaining confidence each
and every week with their young nucleus and seem like a legitimate
threat to become the fourth straight NFC South team to go from last
to first the next season. The win over Green Bay was gritty and a big
momentum builder. Like Vanderbilt last week in college, it’s tough to
beat a home underdog that is confident and hungry because of the
recent success they’ve had. The Falcons are just that right now. On
top of that, the Atlanta franchise has also
won three straight at home, both SU &
ATS, the first time that has occurred since
’05. I’ll ride this wave, catching the points.
Play: Atlanta +3
10/12/2008 (215) MIAMI at (216)HOUSTON
It seems kind of strange that despite backto-
back wins over New England and San
Diego, Miami is a field goal underdog
at Houston, a team that is winless after
four games, and one coming off as gut
wrenching of a loss as can be. However,
there is a strong StatFox Super Situation
that indicates to fade road teams coming
off of big home underdog wins: Play
Against - Road teams (MIAMI) - off an
upset win as a home underdog, after the
first month of the season.
(35-19 over the L5 seasons, 64.8%). Not
so coincidentally, on its own, MIAMI is also
12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) off a upset win as
an underdog since 1992. Would this be
enough to sell me on the Texans without
any other evidence? No, that is why the StatFox Game Estimators
on FoxSheets are the final evidence I need. Estimate #1 calls for a
29-16 Houston win, Estimate #2 says 23-19 in favor of the hosts.
Two wins, two covers projected by the computer despite the recent
results. That is as anti-public of a projection as I can remember. I’ll
put my faith in the computer.
Play: Houston -3
10/12/2008 (221) PHILADELPHIA at (222) SAN FRANCISCO
After yielding a 14-0 lead in losing to Washington, I have to believe that
oddsmakers are simply overvaluing Philadelphia in this spot against
San Francisco. What has Philly really done other beat up on a weak
Rams team at home and hung on for dear life to cover against the
injury-riddled Steelers? I know, I’ve backed Philly the last two weeks,but it wasn’t until watching yesterday’s game that I realized that this
offense is nothing without a 100% healthy Brian Westbrook. The
defense was also gashed by Washington for 388 yards. Meanwhile,
the 49ers have come back down to earth but are still averaging a
healthy 5.9 yards per play on offense. They should be able to put up
enough offense to give themselves a shot at the upset. With a 1-7-1
ATS record heading into the bye week and having to travel across
country for this contest, I don’t like this situation for the Eagles.
Play: San Francisco +6
10/12/2008 (227) NEW ENGLAND at (228) SAN DIEGO
Other than last year’s Super Bowl loss to the Giants, name the last
time that New England didn’t come to play 100% at a so-called
“Big Game� This is a pivotal contest and a near must-win for the
Chargers. However, must-win is one of
the most losing propositions in sports,
because it only happens when a team was
not good enough to control its destiny prior
to. San Diego has not been good enough.
In fact, they seem to be taking for granted
the fact that they are being anointed as
the heir apparent to New England’s AFC
throne. Believe me, the Patriots aren’t
just going to hand it over that quickly.
HC Bill Belichick’s teams are 17-7 ATS
as underdogs of 3.5-9.5 points. They are
also 8-0 ATS on the road coming off a
game in which they yielded less than 200
yards of offense. Meanwhile, San Diego’s
Norv Turner is 16-30 ATS at home off a
loss. From both a situational and realistic
perspective, I just can’t seen San Diego
winning this game comfortably.
Play: New England +5
10/13/2008 (229) NY GIANTS at (230)
CLEVELAND
Whenever considering underdogs in
the NFL, unless analyzing double-digit
pointspreads, I have to believe that the underdog can actually win
the game to back them against the number. Simply put, I don’t think
Cleveland can win this game. The Browns have been awful in the
early going, and a win at Cincinnati and a bye week are not going
to be enough for this team to regroup against the NFL’s best. I’ve
made mistakes of forcing home underdog plays on Monday night
before, simply because of what was supposed to me a motivational
edge for the home team. If the team can’t compete though, this edge
doesn’t last long. Look at the numbers, they say all you need to
know: Giants – 12 game road win streak (11-1 ATS), +2.3 in yards
per play differential. Browns – averaging 11.5 PPG, -1.6 in YPP
differential. These are simply two different level teams, and hoping
for the Browns to recapture the early ’07 magic is futile.Play: NY Giants -7
TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:
1. WASHINGTON (-15) over ST LOUIS 7
2. INDIANAPOLIS (-6) over BALTIMORE 7
3. CHICAGO (-1.5) over ATLANTA 6.5
TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. WASHINGTON (-15) over ST LOUIS 21
2. MIAMI (+3) over HOUSTON 11
3. GREEN BAY (+2.5) over SEATTLE 11
TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 6 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/12/2008 (215) MIAMI vs. (216) HOUSTON
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two average
offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored (39-11 since 1983.) (78.0%,
+26.9 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-1). L5 Seasons: (9-1). L10 Seasons: (16-1).
Play On MIA-HOU Under 45
Sunday, 10/12/2008 (209) CAROLINA vs. (210) TAMPA BAY
Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent
after a loss by 3 or less points (24-4 since 1983.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (1-0). L3 Seasons: (5-0). L5 Seasons: (6-0). L10 Seasons: (13-2).
PLAY ON - TB
MULTIPLE TEAMS
Play Against - Road favorites (DALLAS, NY GIANTS) - outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the
season, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game (40-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.9%, +26.8 units.
Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (11-2). L5 Seasons: (18-10). Since 1983: (78-46)
TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 6 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/12/2008 (219) JACKSONVILLE vs. (220) DENVER
JACKSONVILLE is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score
was JACKSONVILLE 29.8, OPPONENT 21.7 - (Rating = 5*).
Sunday, 10/12/2008 (217) ST LOUIS vs. (218) WASHINGTON
ST LOUIS is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST
LOUIS 11.8, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/12/2008 (225) GREEN BAY vs. (226) SEATTLE
Mike Holmgren is 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) in October games as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren
19.7, OPPONENT 24.6 - (Rating = 4*).
Monday, 10/13/2008 (229) NY GIANTS vs. (230) CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. The average score
was CLEVELAND 25.9, OPPONENT 17.6 - (Rating = 4*)
Sunday, 10/12/2008 (227) NEW ENGLAND vs. (228) SAN DIEGO
Bill Belichick is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) in road games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game as the coach
of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was Belichick 32.8, OPPONENT 18.4 - (Rating = 3*)
Sunday, 10/12/2008 (205) BALTIMORE vs. (206) INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2
seasons. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 33.4, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 3*)
Sunday, 10/12/2008 (219) JACKSONVILLE vs. (220) DENVER
Mike Shanahan is 26-48 ATS (-26.8 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of DENVER. The
average score was Shanahan 22.4, OPPONENT 21.6 - (Rating = 2*)
Sunday, 10/12/2008 (213) CHICAGO vs. (214) ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 16-37 ATS (-24.7 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game since 1992. The average
score was ATLANTA 17.3, OPPONENT 29.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Sunday, 10/12/2008 (217) ST LOUIS vs. (218) WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 31-9 ATS (+21.1 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was WASHINGTON 24.8, OPPONENT 15.9 - (Rating = 3*)
Top NFL Pre and Post Bye Week Trends: Part 2
Week 8: Sunday, October 26th
* Play: UNDER – Seattle at San Francisco - Reason...Since ‘00,
the UNDER is 7-2 in the game prior to the San Francisco open
date.
* Play: UNDER - Arizona at Carolina - Reason...The Cardinals
have been a huge UNDER team coming out of the bye week,
failing to surpass the posted total in 11 of the L13 games. Arizona
itself has averaged just 13.2 PPG in that spot.
* Play: CAROLINA ATS vs. Arizona - Reason...The Panthers are
on a 6-2 ATS run in pre-open date games.
* Play: OVER – San Diego at New Orleans - Reason...Two
significant patterns have formed in pre-bye week Chargers games:
The OVER is 10-3 in the L13, and…
* Play: SAN DIEGO ATS at New Orleans - Reason...the other
significant trend finds San Diego 10-4 ATS in the L14 pre-bye
week games.
* Play: PHILADELPHIA SU & ATS vs. Atlanta - Reason...As bad
as Philadelphia has been going into the bye week, the Eagles
have been phenomenal coming out of it, going 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS,
allowing just 8.8 PPG.
* Play: UNDER - Atlanta at Philadelphia - Reason...The Falcons
have a significant post-bye week trend that has formed in the L10
games: 8-0-2 UNDER the total. If that’s not enough, Philadelphia
has gone UNDER the total in its L9 post-open date games, dating
back to 2000.
Week 9: Sunday, November 2nd
* Play: OVER & JACKSONVILLE ATS at Cincinnati - Reason...
Cincinnati’s opponent in the post-bye week game is on a 6-1 SU &
ATS run and the OVER shares the same record in the L7.
* Play: DENVER ATS vs. Miami - Reason...The Broncos have
been consistently strong coming out of the open date, going 15-3
SU & 14-3-1 ATS since ‘92.
* Play: CLEVELAND ATS vs. Baltimore - Reason...The Ravens
have lost five of their last six, both SU & ATS before the open date
after winning their previous five.
* Play: UNDER - Baltimore at Cleveland - Reason...The UNDER
is on a run 5-1 in Baltimore’s L6 pre-bye week games.
* Play: TAMPA BAY ATS at Kansas City - Reason...Since arriving
in Tampa in 2002, John Gruden’s Buccaneers team has not lost a
pre-bye week game, going 6-0 SU & ATS.
* Play: DALLAS ATS at NY Giants - Reason...The Cowboys own
the league’s best straight up mark overall in pre-week games at
14-4 and are second with a 13-5 ATS mark. In the last 10 years,
they are 9-1 ATS.
* Play: OVER – Houston at Minnesota - Reason...Totals have
been the wager of choice for savvy bettors in pre- & post bye week
Minnesota games. Since ‘98, the OVER is 17-5 in those contests.
Week 10: Monday, November 10th
* Play: OVER – St. Louis at San Francisco - Reason...In San
Francisco’s L9 games coming out of the bye week, the OVER is
a perfect 9-0.
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 2:38am -
0 likes
KEVIN O'NEIL - THE MAX - NFL
NFL
Sunday, October 12th, 2008
Ravens (+4½) over @Colts
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Colts are 2-2, but it is a miraculous 2-2, with
the comeback win from a 27-10 mid-4th quarter
deficit even more amazing than the big win up in
Minnesota. In both instances Peyton Manning made
plays that earned the victory, but the opportunity to
make those plays was handed to Indy on a silver
platter by their opponents. Indianapolis used to be
very difficult to beat in the RCA Dome, but they’re 0-
2 so far in the new Lucas Oil Stadium, and the
acoustics in that new building are far more favorable
to the opposition, as it no longer sounds like there is
a jet airplane landing on top of them.
The Ravens are not a team that allows you to get
away with mistakes. They’ll pressure Manning all
day long, and that kind of pressure, which has
always been the way to beat him, seems to bother
him more now that he’s got some concern with his
knees. There was a lot made in Indianapolis about
how the Colts offense really made progress during
their bye week with some offensive linemen back
from injuries. But they gained only 314 yards on 5.4
yards per play against a Houston D that was ranked
in the bottom quartile of the league. They just aren’t
clicking this year. And defensively they’ll continue to
miss Bob Sanders. But they really weren’t that good
with Sanders in the lineup the first couple of games.
The run defense has been very weak, allowing 183,
180, 236, and 159 yards on the ground in their four
games. And that can be a problem against a Ravens
team that runs the ball as their bread and butter.
So we’re going with a Baltimore team that lost to an
undefeated team despite holding their opponents to
210 yards, outgaining them by 75 yards and
notching 8 more first downs. And we’re going
against an Indianapolis team that escaped with a
win over a winless team despite being outgained by
77 yards, earning 5 fewer first downs than that
opponent, and scoring two TD’s in the last 3:36 of
the game on a total of 20 yards of offense. Take
the points with the team off the referee-assisted loss
against the team that had a win gift-wrapped for
them by a sloppy quarterback. Significantly better D
plus the points here. Ravens by 3.
Panthers (+2½) over @Bucs
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Tampa Bay’s offense is anemic. They went into
Denver, taking on a Broncos team with horrible
defensive numbers (allowing 5.0 yards per rush and
8.3 yards per pass attempt) and managed not to
score a touchdown until earning a back door cover
with 2:02 left in the game. Brian Griese’s injury
looked relatively meaningful, but even if he’s back,
he hasn’t been much of a threat. If Jeff Garcia is
the starter the Bucs have to count on the enmity
between he and Gruden to be a thing of a past,
which is doubtful. Garcia and Gruden have been on
the outs all season, and really offseason as well,
when Gruden was trying to find somebody, anybody
other than Garcia to quarterback this team. This is
a team with little explosive ability, with their longest
completion of the game against a team that was
being lit up on a weekly basis being a mere 17
yards. Now the Bucs have to take on a Carolina
defense allowing only 3.8 yards per rush attempt
and 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Both numbers have
them as among the best defensive clubs in the
league. And while a case can be made that they’ve
played a weak schedule, we know from past
experience that this is a well-coached defensive
team. After a week of hype about how Larry
Johnson is reemerging as one of the top backs in
the league, the Panthers held him to two yards on
seven carries on Sunday.
Offensively the Panthers are turning things around
just a little bit. Delhomme is a quarterback you can
trust and Steve Smith’s two-game suspension was a
blessing in disguise, as Delhomme developed
rapport with other players on his club. In particular,
he got reacquainted with Muhsin Muhammad, back
with 22 catches in 5 games after a three-year stint
in Chicago. The QB is not throwing the ball like a
guy who had Tommy John surgery on his elbow;
he’s winging it on a line and passing with
tremendous accuracy right now. D’Angelo Williams
has been solid at RB and the depth on the offensive
line showed when you see how the Panthers have
been able to overcome the loss of their starting
tackles, both of whom will likely be back for this
one. The Panthers clearly have solid chemistry on
offense, which is not something you can say about
Tampa Bay.
This is a big divisional rivalry, and even with all the
problems and injuries that the Panthers have had
over the past two years, they still have beaten the
Bucs 3 of 4 times over that time. There’s absolutely
no intimidation factor for the Panthers at the new
Pirate Ship, as John Fox’s teams have gone into this
stadium and won five times in a row. Let’s take that
streak to six today. Panthers by 4.
Jaguars (+3½) over Broncos
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Are their any more fans who still believe the Denver
Broncos are a running team? The Broncos haven't
had a 100-yard rusher in eight games, dating to last
season. The last time that happened was in Mike
Shanahan's first eight games on the job back in
1995. Selvin Young, the Broncos' leading runner, is
on pace for 851 yards. He has both of the Broncos'
100-yard games, each against Kansas City, in the
past 17 games.
Despite last week's 16-13 low scoring slugfest win
over Tampa Bay the Broncos are scoring an average
of nearly 30 points per game on the season. High
scoring teams naturally attract too much attention
from the betting public, and Denver applies to a
negative 79-129 ATS system based on this concept.
Teams from this system are already 0-3 in 2008,
with outright upset losers on Green Bay (24-27),
Buffalo (17-41) and San Diego (10-17) last
weekend. The Bucs were 3-1 before Denver beat
them, and that triggers a negative 48-91 ATS
system that plays against NFL teams off wins over
high quality foes.
The best system I have in Jacksonville's favor can
best be explained by referring to horse racing. Most
horses in any given race did not win their last time
out. So handicappers look for signs in recent losing
performances that might point to a good effort
today: a blazing first quarter, perhaps a good stretch
run, or a nervy effort in the face of bad racing luck.
The Jags made a valiant fourth quarter effort to
come from behind and pull off the home upset over
the Steelers before giving up the winning
touchdown. That late stretch run qualifies the Jags
in an 85-36 ATS system worth nearly 6 points per
game.
The Jags defense looks battered and bruised. They
are giving up better than 22 points per game and
7.5 yards per pass. In last week's 26-21 loss to
Pittsburgh the Steelers put up 300 yards and 21 first
downs in the first half. The Jags were missing a pair
of starters in the secondary and gave up more than
300 yards thru the air for the second week in a row.
But Denver's pass defense is also giving up 7.5
yards per attempt, and they won't be able to pack
the box against the Jags. The Broncos did not
believe that TB QB Brian Griese could hurt them
deep and they loaded up the box accordingly.
Jacksonville can go deep, and they will force a weak
Broncos defense to play more honestly than they did
a week ago. Take the points.
Jacksonville by 3.
@Seahawks (-3) over Packers
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Seattle enters off an embarrassing loss at the Giants
last week. They were blasted by 38 points (44-6),
and played a terrible offensive game. They only had
13 first downs and gained an anemic 187 yards of
offense. Mike Holmgren is an offensive minded
coach, and he wasn’t too pleased with the
performance: “Well, that was a good, oldfashioned,
you know what. I was a little
disappointed; let me put it that way." And the
offensive inabilities led to their defense to being on
the field for over 36 minutes of the game. The
defensive guys were also beat down as the Giants
racked-up 523 yards of offense and they’ll look to
make amends for their bad performance. “We have
to do a better job. That was embarrassing,â€
Seahawks linebacker Lofa Tatupu said. “As one of
the leaders of this defense I take that very
personally.â€
But let’s draw a line through the game. Seattle was not in
a good spot at all, and at the risk of sounding like a broken
record, I’ll say it again: NFC West teams struggle when
playing in the Eastern Time Zone. And there’s no disputing
that fact. Seattle has played two games in this situation
already, losing both by a combined score of 78-16. Now
one might argue that the situation is pointless because
Seattle entered off a bye. But they still had to wake-up on
Sunday morning and play a football game at 10AM on their
body clock, right? If you’ve ever flown from West to East,
you know that it takes days for your body to adjust to the
time difference. Also going against Seattle was the bye
itself. Many believed the Seahawks would be better this
week as they welcomed back two of their starting receivers
(lost Deion Branch again to a heel injury), but their timing
based passing offense needs repetition to get into sync,
and you just don’t get that in practice. QB Matt
Hasselbeck also left with a hyper-extended knee, but early
reports say he’s fine and be ready to go. And head coach
Mike Holmgren has never been a guy to get his team to
play well off a bye as his teams are just 2-11 against the
spread in that situation. So forget what happened in New
York. The Seahawks were up against it in many ways.
Like Seattle, Green Bay is banged-up and short-handed.
After not practicing at all last week, QB Aaron Rodgers
played all 60 minutes with a separated shoulder. He
played extremely well too, connecting on 25 of 37 for 304
yards. But he had no velocity on his passes, something a
quarterback needs when playing in the common windy and
rainy weather in Seattle. The Packers defense is struggling
big-time allowing over 25 points per game, which is close
to full touchdown more than last year. Their run defense
has allowed 176 yards or more in 4 of their 5 games, and
after their 3rd straight loss on Sunday, head coach Mike
McCarthy said: "We're making common mistakes, things
you're stressing in practice, and we need to clean it up.
Our house is messy right now." Those words tell us a lot
about the morale of the Packers right now. Seattle played
well below their capabilities, but look for them to bounce
back strong at home. Seahawks by 9.
Patriots (+6) over@ Chargers
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Exactly where is this line coming from? Sure, San
Diego despite injuries to Rivers, Tomlinson, and
Gates put a real scare into the Patriots in the AFC
championship game last season. Yes, San Diego will
be sky high for this game as that loss last January
was their second straight season-ending loss to New
England. Sure, the Patriots are not the same team
without Tom Brady, any NFL fan or handicapper
knows that. But for each of these three points,
there is an ever stronger argument on the New
England side, and oh yeah… did I mention that
there is a 20 point line swing from that playoff
meeting last season, and that we are now catching 6
with a team that has won 22 of its last 23 regular
season games and has an 80 yards per game better
defense than today’s opponent?
I mentioned Tom Brady’s absence, but what about
the loss of Shawne Merriman for the Chargers?
Most of the time the loss of an outside linebacker,
even a very good one, only slightly weakens a
defense, as long as the rest of a team’s front 7 is
relatively healthy. However, Merriman is the closest
thing we’ve seen to a Derrick Thomas/Lawrence
Taylor type player in this league in a while, and his
emotion and leadership have been missed just as
much as the pressure he brings off of the edge. San
Diego’s defense is allowing an ugly 379 yards and 26
points per game this season, and although they
have forced 8 turnovers in 5 games this season,
they are nowhere near the pace that produced a
ridiculous 48 takeaways last season. Remember,
they were a negative yardage team for the season
last year, and are –55 ypg in ’08. Phillip Rivers is
playing very well at QB, but LaDainian Tomlinson is
averaging only 3.7 yards per rush thus far, and
frankly does not look like the same player as he is
playing through some nagging injuries. Without
Michael Turner to back him up, along with Merriman’s
absence on the defensive side, San Diego is simply not as
good a team as they were in last year’s playoffs.
Neither is New England obviously, but the Pats still rate top
5 in the NFL by my power rankings, and can easily move
back towards the top as Matt Cassell continues to improve
under center. He played his best game against San
Francisco last week, and on the season he is completing
67% of his passes at nearly 7 yards an attempt. The
Patriots will be staying out on the West Coast this week to
avoid unnecessary travel, and you have to think that this
move will help them. They are a veteran, professional
bunch that will tend to their business and prepare for a big
game as opposed to treating the week like a vacation. We
mentioned the magnitude of this game for San Diego, but
remember New England is simply the best big game team
in football. They are an excellent 27-13-1 ATS as an
underdog under Belichick, and with the weakness we’ve
seen from San Diego so far, this is a huge overlay. Pats
outright. New England by 1
NFL System from Dave Fobare,
They Need More Points:
Play an NFL team that is off 4+ losses and giving up more than 27 points per game if they are at least a 7-point dog today.
Record Since 1983: 64-40 ATS (61.5%)
This week’s application: Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams
NFL System from Nelly’s Sportsline,
Continuing the Heartbreak:
Play against any NFL road favorite coming off back-toback
straight up losses in games that saw them favored. Pointspread Record Since 1980: 26-10 (72.2%)
This week’s application: San Francisco 49ers (play against Eagles)
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 2:39am -
0 likes
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich
THE MYTH OF "SPLITTING THE ACTION"
You've probably heard for years, even decades, that the goal of the oddsmaker is to "split the action" on each game.
That means he wants half the money on one side of the betting line, and half on the other side. Since losing bets are charged a 10 percent "vigorish," sportsbooks are guaranteed a profit whenever the money breaks out evenly. The losers pay the winners, and the sportsbooks put 10% in their pockets thank you very much.
It doesn't actually work out that way.
Sure, there are some games where the money comes in close to 50/50. Often you'll see the public (referred to as "squares" in Nevada) betting on one side, while professional wagerers (called "sharps") are on the other. What's more common these days is for the sportsbooks to take a position on a game while giving bettors "the worst of it."
What do I mean by that?
If oddsmakers are confident the public is going to be betting one side very strongly, which is fairly common when you're talking about big name college football teams or the most hyped pro squads, they'll inflate the line a couple of points in that direction. The public isn't betting the "true" line that reflects the actual difference between the teams on the field. They're paying a tax of a couple of points because their betting is so predictable. As a result, squares who still make that bet are laying 11/10 AND a bad number. It's tough enough to beat the 11/10 over time. Doing that against bad numbers will make money for the sportsbooks even if the money doesn't split out evenly.
In some sports though, it's mostly sharp action that's hitting the board. Oddsmakers will try to do the same thing here by studying sharp betting patterns. If they notice that the sharps are hitting an off-the-radar team in college basketball, or maybe Unders with certain NBA teams, they'll adjust that line a couple of points as well. Now the sharps have to decide whether or not they want to lay 11/10 at a line not particularly to their liking. If they do, the sportsbooks figure they're okay because they've charged the tax and have the 11/10 working for them.
Let me give you an example that will help you see how powerful this is. I've heard often through the years about "offers" that certain illegal bookies around the country will make to their square clientele. They're so confident the squares will lose with a lot of action, they tell the mark that he can move the line one point in his favor in every game...but he has to bet EVERY game. Now, this ONLY works against real squares! Most guys can win with that kind of edge. Sharps would make a killing. Squares find a way to lose no matter what the proposition is.
Now, imagine a book told you that HE would get to move each game a point in whatever direction HE wanted, you still had to lay 11/10, and you had to play every game on the board. That would be horrible for a player. You'd never take that offer in a million years. Imagine it was two points instead of one. Nobody in their right mind would take that offer.
Well, that's what's going on here to a degree. Sportsbooks realize how the public bets, they're charging them 11/10 on each play, and they're making them lay 1-3 points the worst of it depending on the game. I'm not saying the public plays the board. But, oddsmakers know which games the public will be focused on. That universe is tilted very strongly against the squares. The "squares' board" is a stacked deck.
Oddsmakers haven't quite yet realized how to beat the sharps. But, they have slowed down the sharps with this type of approach. That 11/10 vig AND "penalty" points create quite a hurdle for players to clear even if you're talking about an obscure college basketball game or an NBA total.
In baseball, the same thing happens on the moneyline. You saw high prices on the Cubs in their first round National League playoff series against the Dodgers because the public loves betting the Cubs. Squares had to pay a surcharge for the right to bet on Chicago. This past season, when the sharps pounded a young up-and-coming pitcher in his first couple of starts, the line dropped immensely the next time he took the mound. There were several young arms this past summer who were priced like veterans by their third appearance.
As you can see, there's no need for an oddsmaker to sweat how the action breaks down in each game as long as he's put the house in a good position. He knows that things will work out for the sportsbook over a large sampling of games.
"Splitting the action" is a myth. That's not the way it happens in the real world.
If you want to win when betting college and pro football, you have to be aware of this phenomenon and put it to your advantage. Go against the public teams so you can put the free points in your favor. Don't bet any side or total where you believe the line has been shaded against you. Make your own calculated assessment of what the "true" line should be. Then try to find edges you can exploit. You'll still be dealing with the 11/10. But, you'll have a fighting chance to be on the right side more often than not.
Then the squares will be paying YOU instead of the house!
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 2:41am -
0 likes
NCAAF Week 7 Trends and Indexes 107 through 10/11
Best games of 2008
Oct. 9
Clemson at Wake Forest: Thursday night at Groves Stadium, what could be scarier? No, really. This is a matchup of the ACC's top two quarterbacks.
Oct. 11
Tim Tebow accounted for three touchdown's in last season's matchup with LSU.
LSU at Florida: The Crazy Les legend grew last season in this meeting. LSU went five-for-five on fourth downs. Tim Tebow can't be any greater than he was that night (two touchdowns throwing, one rushing), can he?
Arizona State at USC: If the Trojans are going to be knocked off their Pac-10 throne, it has to start here. It's been nine years since the Sun Devils won in the Coliseum.
Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas): As usual, Big 12 South and national championship hopes are at stake. Somehow, the turkey legs and corn dogs taste better for the winners.
Oct. 18
Kansas at Oklahoma: Kansas' Todd Reesing likes to run around. Oklahoma DE Auston English likes to chase. Reesing better have help. Oklahoma is 21-0 in Big 12 home games since 2002. Michigan at Penn State: Give Rodriguez Penn State's skill players and Michigan might have a better chance this season. Give Rod JoePa's players and he might have the cops swarming around.
Ohio State at Michigan State: Mark Dantonio tries to psyche out his former boss (Jim Tressel) by sporting green and white argyle. Will it matter? Ohio State has won the last six in this series.
Missouri at Texas: This might be all that stands between Missouri and an undefeated season. The Tigers are a better team on paper but this game is in Austin where the Longhorns are 10-0 following the Oklahoma game the past decade. Four of those wins have been against ranked teams.
Oct. 23
Auburn at West Virginia: This should be interesting. One of the nation's best spread-option pass schemers (Auburn OC Tony Franklin) vs. one of the nation's best spread-option run schemes.
Oct. 25
Alabama at Tennessee: The Tide might have reached their '07 high in last seasons' 24-point victory over UT. John Parker Wilson, time for you to step up again.
Oct. 26
Central Florida at Tulsa: 2007's No. 1 offense (nationally) vs. Conference USA's No. 1 defense (projected in 2008). The Golden Hurricane lost twice to the Knights last season, including the Conference USA championship game.
Georgia at LSU: SEC championship game preview? The teams haven't met since the '05 title game. Pro SCOUT s fight over press box space to watch Matthew Stafford vs. the LSU defense.
Nov. 1
Georgia vs. Florida (in Jacksonville, Fla.) Urban Meyer orders the entire population of Gainesville onto the field after the Gators first touchdown.
Texas at Texas Tech: The over-under is 78. That's the average number of points scored in this game the past five years. All have been won by Texas.
Nov. 8
Could this be the final Bowden Bowl?
Clemson at Florida State: Tommy has won the last four out of five over his dad. Will this be the last meeting?
Nov. 22
BYU at Utah: Hopefully, a BCS bowl is at stake. The last time it was, Utah fans broke out one of the best signs of all time during a rout of the Cougars: Where's Your God Now?
Michigan at Ohio State: Yo, Rich. Big game today. You might have heard about when you came to town.
Cal Poly at Wisconsin: The San Luis Obispo County fair got in the way of a September meeting so they moved this game to late November. Kidding. Just threw this in to remind you that no one is safe. The I-AA Mustangs won at San Diego State in 2006, averaged a school-record 40 points last season and return 10 starters to a confusing option offense.
Nov. 28
West Virginia at Pittsburgh: Devine vs. McCoy. Stewart vs. Wannstedt. White vs. Pittsburgh's defense. West Virginia's psyche vs. itself. Just think if the Mountaineers need this to go to the BCS title game. Again.
Nov. 29
Chase Daniel and Mizzou should have a lot riding on the outcome of the Kansas game.
Missouri vs. Kansas (in Kansas City, Mo.): The winner could be playing at Arrowhead two weeks in a row. Kansas City hosts the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 6. Nothing, though, can top last season's epic. The second-largest crowd in Arrowhead history watched Missouri win 36-28.
Auburn at Alabama: Tommy Tuberville is running out of hands to show the cameras how many times in a row he has won.
Dec. 6
South Florida at West Virginia: Jim Leavitt might -- just might -- admit this is a big game. The South Florida coach fell asleep during Neil Armstrong's walk on the moon. Not much phases him. The winner here should capture the Big East. Two top 10 Mountaineers' teams have played South Florida the past two years. Two top 10 Mountaineers teams have come out losers. The tough Bulls' D has shut down West Virginia's running game.
USC at UCLA: Rick Neuheisel is Tabasco. This rivalry, lately has been rice cakes. In other words, USC-UCLA needs a little Ricky Tabasco.
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 3:03am -
0 likes
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Week 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, October 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROY (2 - 2) at FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 4) - 10/7/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TROY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, October 9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLEMSON (3 - 2) at WAKE FOREST (3 - 1) - 10/9/2008, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
WAKE FOREST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after a bye week since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 1-1 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 2-0 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UAB (1 - 5) at HOUSTON (2 - 3) - 10/9/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus UAB over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against UAB over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, October 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOUISVILLE (2 - 2) at MEMPHIS (3 - 3) - 10/10/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, October 11
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E CAROLINA (3 - 2) at VIRGINIA (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
E CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
E CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SYRACUSE (1 - 4) at W VIRGINIA (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
SYRACUSE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
W VIRGINIA is 1-1 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IOWA (3 - 3) at INDIANA (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 2-0 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 2-0 straight up against IOWA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (5 - 1) at ILLINOIS (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 47-76 ATS (-36.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MICHIGAN ST (5 - 1) at NORTHWESTERN (5 - 0) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NORTHWESTERN is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
NORTHWESTERN is 1-1 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS (5 - 0) vs. OKLAHOMA (5 - 0) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 2-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E MICHIGAN (2 - 4) at ARMY (1 - 4) - 10/11/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IOWA ST (2 - 3) at BAYLOR (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BAYLOR is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BAYLOR is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S CAROLINA (4 - 2) at KENTUCKY (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
S CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
S CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
W MICHIGAN (5 - 1) at BUFFALO (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VANDERBILT (5 - 0) at MISSISSIPPI ST (1 - 4) - 10/11/2008, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTAH (6 - 0) at WYOMING (2 - 4) - 10/11/2008, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WYOMING is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
WYOMING is 1-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS ST (3 - 2) at TEXAS A&M (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEMPLE (2 - 4) at C MICHIGAN (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEMPLE is 1-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PURDUE (2 - 3) at OHIO ST (5 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 1-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TCU (5 - 1) at COLORADO ST (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
TCU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OKLAHOMA ST (5 - 0) at MISSOURI (5 - 0) - 10/11/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TENNESSEE (2 - 3) at GEORGIA (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA ST (2 - 3) at USC (3 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
USC is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UCLA (2 - 3) at OREGON (4 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 1-0 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
OREGON is 1-1 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOLEDO (1 - 4) at MICHIGAN (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTRE DAME (4 - 1) at N CAROLINA (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NOTRE DAME is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
NOTRE DAME is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
N CAROLINA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS (2 - 3) at AUBURN (4 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
AUBURN is 1-1 against the spread versus ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons
AUBURN is 1-1 straight up against ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW MEXICO ST (2 - 2) at NEVADA (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEVADA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEVADA is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI OHIO (1 - 4) at N ILLINOIS (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW MEXICO (3 - 3) at BYU (5 - 0) - 10/11/2008, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON ST (1 - 5) at OREGON ST (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OREGON ST is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
OREGON ST is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
OREGON ST is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA (4 - 1) at STANFORD (3 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 52-76 ATS (-31.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ARIZONA is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOWLING GREEN (2 - 3) at AKRON (3 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 1-1 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OHIO U (1 - 5) at KENT ST (1 - 5) - 10/11/2008, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OHIO U is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
KENT ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
KENT ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
KENT ST is 1-1 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RUTGERS (1 - 4) at CINCINNATI (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEBRASKA (3 - 2) at TEXAS TECH (5 - 0) - 10/11/2008, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 74-48 ATS (+21.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 95-67 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 44-23 ATS (+18.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO (3 - 2) at KANSAS (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
COLORADO is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
COLORADO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 47-75 ATS (-35.5 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PENN ST (6 - 0) at WISCONSIN (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-1 against the spread versus PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-1 straight up against PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UCF (2 - 3) at MIAMI (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 3:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LSU (4 - 0) at FLORIDA (4 - 1) - 10/11/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 1-1 straight up against LSU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTAH ST (1 - 4) at SAN JOSE ST (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TULSA (5 - 0) at SMU (1 - 5) - 10/11/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 2-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
SMU is 1-1 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOISE ST (4 - 0) at SOUTHERN MISS (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN MISS is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
BOISE ST is 73-44 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 49-20 ATS (+27.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 44-18 ATS (+24.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 73-44 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-0 straight up against SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TULANE (2 - 3) at UTEP (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
TULANE is 52-75 ATS (-30.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
UTEP is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTEP is 1-1 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
UTEP is 1-1 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIR FORCE (3 - 2) at SAN DIEGO ST (1 - 4) - 10/11/2008, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IDAHO (1 - 5) at FRESNO ST (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
IDAHO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
IDAHO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
FRESNO ST is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOUISIANA TECH (2 - 2) at HAWAII (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 11:59 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
LOUISIANA TECH is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAWAII is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
HAWAII is 2-0 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALL ST (6 - 0) at W KENTUCKY (2 - 4) - 10/11/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 1-0 straight up against W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA MONROE (1 - 4) at ARKANSAS ST (3 - 2) - 10/11/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 2-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-1 straight up against LA MONROE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIDDLE TENN ST (2 - 3) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (2 - 3) - 10/11/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-1 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA LAFAYETTE (2 - 3) at NORTH TEXAS (0 - 5) - 10/11/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NORTH TEXAS is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NORTH TEXAS is 2-0 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
NORTH TEXAS is 1-1 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 3:04am -
0 likes
NCAAF
Short Sheet
Week 7
Tuesday, October 7th
Troy at Florida Atlantic, 8:00 ET ESPN2
Troy: 5-1 Under off bye week
Florida Atlantic: 4-1 ATS as home underdog
Thursday, October 9th
Clemson at Wake Forest, 7:45 ET ESPN
Clemson: 41-24 ATS as an underdog
Wake Forest: 4-13 ATS at home off home loss
UAB at Houston, 8:00 ET CSBC
UAB: 5-11 ATS vs. conference
Houston: 5-1 ATS off conference win as an underdog of 6 or more
Friday, October 10th
Louisville at Memphis, 8:00 ET ESPN
Louisville: 6-0 Under off SU loss as home favorite
Memphis: 7-22 ATS off BB SU wins
Saturday, October 11th
East Carolina at Virginia, 12:00 ET
East Carolina: 7-0 ATS off a loss by 14+ points as a favorite
Virginia: 2-9 ATS vs. non-conference
Syracuse at West Virginia, 12:00 ET ESPNU
Syracuse: 3-11 ATS as an underdog
West Virginia: 18-7 Under off home conference win
Iowa at Indiana, 12:00 ET Big 10
Iowa: 5-0 Under this season
Indiana: 17-33 ATS as home underdog
Minnesota at Illinois, 12:00 ET ESPN
Minnesota: 8-2 Over off an Under
Illinois: 3-12 ATS at home off win by 21+ points
(TC) Michigan State at Northwestern, 3:30 ET ESPN2
Michigan State: 11-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points
Northwestern: 2-9 ATS off SU win
Texas at Oklahoma, 12:00 ET ABC
Texas: 5-17 ATS Away off 5+ SU wins
Oklahoma: 10-3 ATS off cover as DD favorite
(TC) Eastern Michigan at Army, 1:00 ET ESPNC
Eastern Michigan: 6-23 ATS vs. non-conference
Army: 1-5 ATS in October
(TC) Iowa State at Baylor, 7:00 ET
Iowa State: 8-2 Under off an Over
Baylor: 4-13 ATS vs. conference
(TC) South Carolina at Kentucky, 12:30 ET
South Carolina: 8-3 ATS in road games
Kentucky: 5-1 Over off BB ATS wins
(TC) Western Michigan at Buffalo, 3:30 ET
Western Michigan: 1-5 ATS after scoring 37+ points
Buffalo: 10-3 ATS off an Under
(TC) Vanderbilt at Mississippi State, 2:30 ET
Vanderbilt: 14-2 ATS after a win by 6 or less points
Mississippi State: 0-6 ATS at home off SU loss
Utah at Wyoming, 2:00 ET MTN
Utah: 9-0 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Wyoming: 0-10 ATS vs. conference
Kansas State at Texas A&M, 2:00 ET
Kansas State: 1-5 ATS after a loss by 17+ points
Texas A&M: 6-1 ATS off conference loss
(TC) Temple at Central Michigan, 4:00 ET
Temple: 6-0 Under off BB Unders
Central Michigan: 14-5 ATS as favorite
Purdue at Ohio State, 3:30 ET ABC
Purdue: 13-4 Under off DD conference loss
Ohio State: 7-2 ATS in October
TCU at Colorado State, 3:30 ET CBSC
TCU: 18-7 ATS as favorite
Colorado State: 0-6 ATS at home off conference game
(TC) Oklahoma State at Missouri, 8:00 ET ESPN2
Oklahoma State: 8-0 Over off BB wins by 21+ points
Missouri: 13-4 ATS L2 seasons
Tennessee at Georgia, 3:30 ET CBS
Tennessee: 23-8 ATS Away in weeks 5 through 9
Georgia: 11-3 Under off conference loss as favorite
Arizona State at USC, 3:30 ET ABC
Arizona State: 2-8 ATS as underdog
USC: 13-1 Under as home favorite
(TC) UCLA at Oregon, 10:15 ET FSN
UCLA: 12-3 ATS as underdog
Oregon: 4-0 Over after scoring 14 points or less
(TC) Toledo at Michigan, 12:00 ET Big 10
Toledo: 3-10 ATS in road games
Michigan: 8-2 ATS off DD conference loss
Notre Dame at North Carolina, 3:30 ET ABC
Notre Dame: 17-5 ATS Away in October
North Carolina: 8-19 ATS at home vs. non-conference
(TC) Arkansas at Auburn, 5:00 ET
Arkansas: 0-4 ATS this season
Auburn: 5-1 Under this season
New Mexico State at Nevada, 4:00 ET
New Mexico State: 3-16 ATS after a game where they committed 4+ turnovers
Nevada: 14-5 ATS on turf
Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois, 4:00 ET
Miami (OH): 10-3 Under in October
Northern Illinois: 16-6 ATS off BB road games
New Mexico at BYU, 6:00 ET MTN
New Mexico: 1-9 ATS after allowing 6 points or less
BYU: 7-0 ATS at home 1st half of season
Washington State at Oregon State, 6:30 ET
Washington State: 0-5 ATS this season
Oregon State: 28-13 ATS as home favorite
(TC) Arizona at Stanford, 5:00 ET
Arizona: 28-52 ATS as favorite
Stanford: 5-1 Over this season
(TC) Bowling Green at Akron, 6:00 ET
Bowling Green: 12-5 ATS in road games
Akron: 1-6 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
(TC) Ohio at Kent State, 2:30 ET
Ohio: 3-0 ATS off road conference loss
Kent State: 1-12 ATS on Saturday
(TC) Rutgers at Cincinnati, 12:00 ET
Rutgers: 6-1 Under in October
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS off BB Unders
(TC) Nebraska at Texas Tech, 3:00 ET FSN
Nebraska: 2-9 ATS off home game
Texas Tech: 40-20 ATS as home favorite
Colorado at Kansas, 12:30 ET ESPN2
Colorado: 5-14 ATS as underdog
Kansas: 9-1 ATS on turf
Penn State at Wisconsin, 8:00 ET ABC
Penn State: 1-10 ATS after allowing 6 points or less
Wisconsin: 18-7 ATS off BB SU losses
Central Florida at Miami (FL), 3:45 ET
Central Florida: 19-8 ATS after failing to cover 2 out of their last 3 games
Miami (FL): 0-7 ATS off an Over
LSU at Florida, 8:00 ET CBS
LSU: 0-7 ATS off 3+ SU Wins
Florida: 10-3 Under vs. LSU
Utah State at San Jose State, 7:30 ET ESPNU
Utah State: 2-11 ATS Away off BB ATS wins
San Jose State: 10-1 ATS at home
Tulsa at SMU, 8:00 ET
Tulsa: 4-0 ATS this season
SMU: 0-7 ATS in home games
Boise State at Southern Miss, 8:00 ET CSBC
Boise State: 44-18 ATS off conference win
Southern Miss: 22-10 Under off SU loss
Tulane at UTEP, 9:00 ET
Tulane: 1-10 ATS off BB Overs
UTEP: 10-5 Under off home loss
Air Force at San Diego State, 9:30 ET MTN
Air Force: 9-1 ATS vs. conference
San Diego State: 34-16 Under off ATS loss
Idaho at Fresno State, 10:00 ET
Idaho: 1-11 ATS off a SU loss
Fresno State: 1-12 ATS off a SU loss
Louisiana Tech at Hawaii, 11:59 ET
Louisiana Tech: 3-12 ATS as road underdog
Hawaii: 8-2 ATS off an Over
Added Games
(TC) Ball State at Western Kentucky, 7:00 ET
Ball State: 13-3 ATS in road games
Western Kentucky: n/a
UL Monroe at Arkansas State, 7:00 ET
UL Monroe: 3-0 Under off BB ATS losses
Arkansas State: 1-5 ATS off BB Unders
Middle Tenn State at Florida International, 7:00 ET
Middle Tenn State: 7-0 ATS in October
Florida International: 4-1 Under this season
(TC) LA Lafayette at North Texas, 7:00 ET
LA Lafayette: 6-0 ATS on turf
North Texas: 4-12 ATS on turf
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 3:05am -
0 likes
NCAAF
Week 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, October 7
8:00 PM TROY vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Troy is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Troy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Troy
Florida Atlantic is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Thursday, October 9
7:30 PM CLEMSON vs. WAKE FOREST
Clemson is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Clemson
Wake Forest is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Clemson
8:00 PM UAB vs. HOUSTON
UAB is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
UAB is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Friday, October 10
8:00 PM LOUISVILLE vs. MEMPHIS
Louisville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville's last 6 games on the road
Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Louisville
Memphis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Louisville
Saturday, October 11
12:00 PM RUTGERS vs. CINCINNATI
Rutgers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rutgers's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
12:00 PM TOLEDO vs. MICHIGAN
Toledo is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Toledo is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Michigan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Michigan is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
12:00 PM SYRACUSE vs. WEST VIRGINIA
Syracuse is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Syracuse is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
West Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Syracuse
West Virginia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Syracuse
12:00 PM TEXAS vs. OKLAHOMA
Texas is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oklahoma
Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 22-2 SU in its last 24 games at home
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
12:00 PM EAST CAROLINA vs. VIRGINIA
East Carolina is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
East Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Virginia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Virginia is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
12:00 PM IOWA vs. INDIANA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iowa's last 5 games when playing Indiana
Iowa is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Indiana is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
12:00 PM MINNESOTA vs. ILLINOIS
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Illinois is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Illinois is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
12:30 PM COLORADO vs. KANSAS
Colorado is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas
Colorado is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Kansas is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Kansas is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
12:30 PM SOUTH CAROLINA vs. KENTUCKY
South Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Kentucky
South Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kentucky
Kentucky is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kentucky is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
1:00 PM EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. ARMY
Eastern Michigan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Eastern Michigan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Army is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
2:00 PM KANSAS STATE vs. TEXAS A&M
Kansas State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas A&M
Kansas State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Texas A&M is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
2:00 PM UTAH vs. WYOMING
Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Wyoming
Utah is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Wyoming
Wyoming is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Wyoming is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
2:00 PM OHIO vs. KENT STATE
Ohio is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Ohio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Kent State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Ohio
Kent State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ohio
2:30 PM VANDERBILT vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Vanderbilt is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Mississippi State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Mississippi State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
3:00 PM NEBRASKA vs. TEXAS TECH
Nebraska is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Nebraska is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Texas Tech is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nebraska
Texas Tech is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Nebraska
3:30 PM NOTRE DAME vs. NORTH CAROLINA
Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Notre Dame is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
North Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
North Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
3:30 PM TENNESSEE vs. GEORGIA
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Georgia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Georgia
Georgia is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Georgia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
3:30 PM GARDNER-WEBB vs. GEORGIA TECH
No trends available
Georgia Tech is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Georgia Tech is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home
3:30 PM MICHIGAN STATE vs. NORTHWESTERN
Michigan State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Northwestern
Michigan State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Northwestern
Northwestern is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Northwestern is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
3:30 PM WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. BUFFALO
Western Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Western Michigan is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
3:30 PM TCU vs. COLORADO STATE
TCU is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado State
TCU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado State
Colorado State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Colorado State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
3:30 PM ARIZONA STATE vs. SOUTHERN CAL
Arizona State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Southern Cal
Arizona State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Southern Cal
Southern Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Southern Cal is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
3:30 PM PURDUE vs. OHIO STATE
Purdue is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Purdue is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Ohio State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Purdue
Ohio State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Purdue
3:45 PM CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. MIAMI
Central Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Central Florida's last 9 games on the road
Miami is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
4:00 PM MIAMI (OHIO) vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Miami (Ohio) is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Miami (Ohio) is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Northern Illinois is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games
Northern Illinois is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
4:00 PM TEMPLE vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Temple is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Temple is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Central Michigan is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Central Michigan is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
4:05 PM NEW MEXICO STATE vs. NEVADA
New Mexico State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Nevada
New Mexico State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Nevada is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
Nevada is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing New Mexico State
5:00 PM ARIZONA vs. STANFORD
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Stanford
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Stanford
Stanford is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Stanford's last 6 games
5:00 PM ARKANSAS vs. AUBURN
Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Auburn
Arkansas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Auburn
Auburn is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Auburn's last 5 games at home
6:00 PM NEW MEXICO vs. BYU
New Mexico is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing BYU
New Mexico is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing BYU
BYU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
BYU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
6:00 PM BOWLING GREEN vs. AKRON
Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Akron
Bowling Green is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Akron
Akron is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Akron's last 6 games at home
6:30 PM WASHINGTON STATE vs. OREGON STATE
Washington State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oregon State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington State's last 6 games when playing Oregon State
Oregon State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oregon State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
7:00 PM LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE vs. NORTH TEXAS
Louisiana-Lafayette is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing North Texas
Louisiana-Lafayette is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing North Texas
North Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
North Texas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
7:00 PM MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Middle Tennessee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Middle Tennessee's last 7 games on the road
Florida International is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Florida International is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games
7:00 PM LOUISIANA-MONROE vs. ARKANSAS STATE
Louisiana-Monroe is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arkansas State
Louisiana-Monroe is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arkansas State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana-Monroe
7:00 PM BALL STATE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Ball State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Western Kentucky is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games
7:05 PM IOWA STATE vs. BAYLOR
Iowa State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baylor
Iowa State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Baylor is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
Baylor is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
7:30 PM UTAH STATE vs. SAN JOSE STATE
Utah State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Utah State is 3-20 SU in its last 23 games
San Jose State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
San Jose State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
8:00 PM PENN STATE vs. WISCONSIN
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State's last 5 games when playing Wisconsin
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Wisconsin is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Wisconsin is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
8:00 PM LSU vs. FLORIDA
LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Florida
LSU is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Florida
Florida is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
Florida is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
8:00 PM OKLAHOMA STATE vs. MISSOURI
Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Missouri
Oklahoma State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Missouri
Missouri is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Missouri is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
8:00 PM BOISE STATE vs. SOUTHERN MISS
Boise State is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
Boise State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Southern Miss is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Southern Miss is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
8:00 PM TULSA vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
Tulsa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Southern Methodist
Tulsa is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Southern Methodist is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games
9:05 PM TULANE vs. TEXAS EL PASO
Tulane is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Tulane is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Texas El Paso is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
9:30 PM AIR FORCE vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
Air Force is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Air Force is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Air Force
San Diego State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Air Force
10:00 PM IDAHO vs. FRESNO STATE
Idaho is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games
Idaho is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Fresno State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Fresno State is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
10:15 PM UCLA vs. OREGON
UCLA is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of UCLA's last 23 games on the road
Oregon is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing UCLA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon's last 6 games when playing UCLA
12:05 AM LOUISIANA TECH vs. HAWAII
Louisiana Tech is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Hawaii
Louisiana Tech is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Hawaii
Hawaii is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
Hawaii is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 3:06am -
0 likes
NFL
Long Sheet
If the Chicago/Atlanta matchup updates, we'll post it below.
Week 6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 12
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OAKLAND (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 3) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-48 ATS (-29.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-78 ATS (-33.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-78 ATS (-33.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-75 ATS (-30.5 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-75 ATS (-30.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINCINNATI (0 - 5) at NY JETS (2 - 2) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAROLINA (4 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DETROIT (0 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 3) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO (3 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 2) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (0 - 4) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST LOUIS (0 - 4) at WASHINGTON (4 - 1) - 10/12/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JACKSONVILLE (2 - 3) at DENVER (4 - 1) - 10/12/2008, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 3) - 10/12/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 120-86 ATS (+25.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DALLAS (4 - 1) at ARIZONA (3 - 2) - 10/12/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GREEN BAY (2 - 3) at SEATTLE (1 - 3) - 10/12/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
SEATTLE is 17-43 ATS (-30.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW ENGLAND (3 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 3) - 10/12/2008, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 70-43 ATS (+22.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, October 13
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY GIANTS (4 - 0) at CLEVELAND (1 - 3) - 10/13/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 3:07am -
0 likes
NFL
Short Sheet
Week 6
Sunday, October 12th
Oakland at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 1-7 ATS vs. NFC
New Orleans: 10-2 Over off BB Overs
Baltimore at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 1-8 ATS in road games
Indianapolis: 7-0 ATS off BB ATS losses
Cincinnati at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 14-4 Under Away if total is 45.5 or higher
NY Jets: 50-27 Under if failing to cover 2 of 3
Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 8-1 Under as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Tampa Bay: 82-52 Under as favorite
Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 0-6 ATS Away in dome games
Minnesota: 19-6 ATS at home off win by 6 or less
Chicago at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 5-1 Under vs. Atlanta
Atlanta: 14-4 ATS after allowing 400+ yards BB games
Miami at Houston, 1:00 ET
Miami: 12-28 ATS off a SU win as underdog
Houston: 26-12 ATS off BB SU losses
St. Louis at Washington, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 3-13 ATS as an underdog
Washington: 6-1 Under off BB SU wins as underdog
Jacksonville at Denver, 4:05 ET
Jacksonville: 9-0 Over off 3+ Overs
Denver: 2-8 ATS off home win
Philadelphia at San Francisco, 4:15 ET
Philadelphia: 7-0 ATS off division game
San Francisco: 7-1 Over in October
Dallas at Arizona, 4:15 ET
Dallas: 13-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Arizona: 16-6 Over as an underdog
Green Bay at Seattle, 4:15 ET
Green Bay: 11-1 Over off 3+ losses
Seattle: 24-45 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
New England at San Diego, 8:15 ET NBC
New England: 15-5 ATS in road games
San Diego: 9-2 ATS in home games
Monday, October 13th
NY Giants at Cleveland, 8:30 ET ESPN
NY Giants: 7-0 Over after gaining 400+ total yards
Cleveland: 9-0 ATS off road game
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 3:07am -
0 likes
NFL
Week 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, October 12
1:00 PM BALTIMORE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
1:00 PM CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Carolina
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Carolina
1:00 PM CHICAGO vs. ATLANTA
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Chicago is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
1:00 PM CINCINNATI vs. NY JETS
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
1:00 PM DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
1:00 PM MIAMI vs. HOUSTON
Miami is 8-13-2 ATS in its last 23 games
Miami is 3-20 SU in its last 23 games
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
1:00 PM OAKLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games at home
1:00 PM ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
4:05 PM JACKSONVILLE vs. DENVER
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing Denver
Denver is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
4:15 PM DALLAS vs. ARIZONA
Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
Dallas is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
4:15 PM GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
Green Bay is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
4:15 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
8:15 PM NEW ENGLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
New England is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
New England is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games
San Diego is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
San Diego is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing New England
Monday, October 13
8:30 PM NY GIANTS vs. CLEVELAND
NY Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 3:07am -
0 likes
ncaa foots injury report
AIR FORCE
Eric Herbort has left team - Academics - 09/20/08
Ty Paffett is upgraded to probable - Back - 09/30/08
Spencer Armstrong is out indefinitely - Fibula - 09/20/08
Travis Dekker is upgraded to probable - Ankle - 09/30/08
Stephen Larson missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/20/08
Ken Lamendola is %27?%27 - Shoulder - 10/01/08
AKRON
Ryan Bain missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss. - Foot -
Cowles Stewart is out for the season. - Leg - 09/19/08
Alex Allen is out for the season. - Hip - 09/25/08
Andrew Johnson left last game, downgraded to expected to miss. - Shou
ALABAMA
Mark Ingram left last game, probable. - Knee - 10/01/08
Darius Hanks missed last game, "?". - Knee - 09/30/08
Nick Fanuzzi has transferred. - None - 08/26/08
Mike McCoy left last game, downgraded to doubtful. - Hamstring - 09/3
Jimmy Johns has been suspended from the team. - Disciplinary - 07/01/
Ezekial Knight expected to miss entire season. - Illness - 07/17/08
Preston Dial missed last game, doubtful - Knee - 09/28/08
ARIZONA ST
Jarrell Woods injured in practice, "?". - Ankle - 09/25/08
Brandon Magee missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Pectoral - 10
Chad Lindsey, has left the team. - Personal - 09/11/08
James Morrison is likely out for the season. - Ankle - 09/17/08
Keegan Herring missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Hamstring -
Dimitri Nance missed last game %27?%27 - Thumb - 09/20/08
Travis Goethel missed last game probable - Neck - 09/28/08
Gerald Munns is out for the season. - Personal - 10/01/08
Grant Crunkleton has left the team. - None - 09/11/08
Angelo Fobbs-Valentino missed last game %27?%27 - Leg - 09/28/08
Matt Hustad missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/20/08
Jonathan Clark is out indefinitely. - Knee - 10/01/08ARKANSAS
Lucas Miller missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Concussion - 0
Marques Wade expected to miss the rest of the season - Knee - 09/22/0
Mitch Petrus out for the season - Eligibility - 09/09/08
Ray Dominguez left last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
ARKANSAS ST
Preston Brown is expected to miss entire season - Suspension - 08/21/
ARMY
Paul McIntosh has left the team - None - 09/14/08
Mike Gann is downgraded to expected to miss - Knee - 10/01/08
Nicholas Emmons missed last game %27?%27 - Undisclosed - 09/27/08
AUBURN
Marcus Jemison is expected to miss entire season - Leg - 09/06/08
Darrell Roseman missed last game, %27?%27 - Shin - 09/28/08
Philip Pierre-Louis is out for the season. - Knee - 09/02/08
John Douglas missed last game, %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Tristan Davis is upgraded to probable - Head - 09/30/08
Chris Slaughter out indefinitely - Suspension - 09/07/08
Tray Blackmon is upgraded to probable - Wrist - 09/30/08
Zac Etheridge limited last game, "?". - Shoulder - 09/29/08
Aairon Savage expected to miss entire season - Knee - 08/07/08
Brad Lester is upgraded to probable - Ankle - 09/30/08
BALL ST
(!) Dante Love is out for the season. - Neck - 09/22/08
BAYLOR
Jordan Hearvey missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Vincent Rhodes missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Knee - 10/01
BOISE ST
Cedric Febis is expected to miss 2 weeks - Knee - 09/28/08
Vinny Perretta left last game, probable - Concussion - 09/28/08
Derrell Acrey left last game, probable - Abdominal - 09/28/08
Nick Lomax is expected to transfer. - None - 08/26/08
Doug Martin missed last game, probable - Hamstring - 09/28/08
BOSTON COLLEGE
DeLeon Gause missed last game, %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
Josh Haden missed last game, %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
Dominick Magazu has transferred - None - 08/31/08
Alex Albright out for the season - Neck - 09/15/08
BOWLING GREEN
Anthony Turner missed last game, %27?%27 - Shoulder - 09/28/08
Eric Ransom is out for the season. - Knee - 08/13/08
Freddie Barnes limited last game, %27?%27 - Shoulder - 10/01/08
Derek Brighton expected to miss 6-8 weeks - Ankle - 08/13/08
DJ Young has left the team. - Personal - 08/23/08
Erique Dozier limited last game, %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/29/08
BYU
Michael Reed expected to miss 2 - 4 weeks - Knee - 09/20/08
Spencer Hafoka is doubtful. - Foot - 09/30/08
Tom Sorenson expected to miss 4-6 weeks - Shoulder - 08/06/08
Dan Van Sweden expected to miss entire season - Leg - 08/16/08
Grant Nelson is expected to miss 2008-2009 season. - Illness - 08/02/
Terrance Hooks is out indefinitely. - Knee - 09/01/08
Vic So'oto expected to miss 4-6 weeks. - Foot - 09/08/08
C MICHIGAN
Calvin Hissong expected to miss entire season. - Neck - 09/20/08
CALIFORNIA
Jahvid Best is downgraded to doubtful - Elbow - 09/28/08
Marvin Jones is out indefinitely - Knee - 09/23/08
Chris Guarnero out for the rest of season - Toe - 09/28/08
Mike Tepper missed last game %27?%27 - Pectoral - 09/29/08
Rulon Davis is downgraded to miss 6 weeks - Leg - 09/29/08
Bernard Hicks missed last game, %27?%27 - Thigh - 09/30/08
Kendrick Payne downgraded to out for season - Knee - 09/29/08
CLEMSON
Antwon Murchison downgraded to doubtful - Undisclosed - 09/27/08
Terrence Ashe missed last game, %27?%27. - Ankle - 09/21/08
Barry Humphries is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. - Knee - 09/04/08
Jamarcus Grant upgraded to probable. - Shoulder - 09/26/08
David Smith is expected to miss up to 3 weeks. - Ankle - 09/23/08
Chris Hairston missed last game, available only as an emergency. - Kn
Rashaad Jackson is out indefinitely. - Quad - 09/05/08
Jamie Cumbie likely to miss rest of season - Wrist - 09/04/08
COLORADO
Max Tuioti-Mariner is expected to miss the remainder of the season. -
BJ Beatty missed last game %27?%27 - Leg - 09/27/08
Brian Lockridge expected to miss entire season. - Hernia - 09/26/08
Markques Simas expected to miss entire season - Eligibility - 08/21/0
Kendrick Celestine has left the team. - Personal - 09/24/08
Jason Espinoza missed last game %27?%27 - Collarbone - 09/27/08
Ryan Miller expected to miss remainder of season - Leg - 09/29/08
Sione Tau expected to miss entire season - Eligibility - 08/21/08
Ethan Adkins is out indefinitely. - Suspension - 09/03/08
Drew Hudgins expected to miss entire season - ACL - 08/14/08
Jason Brace missed last game, %27?%27 - Concussion - 09/28/08
Lynn Katoa expected to miss entire season - Eligibility - 09/18/08
Jon Major expected to miss entire season - ACL - 08/14/08
COLORADO ST
DeAngelo Wilkinson is out indefinitely - Suspension - 09/18/08
Brandon Owens missed last game, %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
Jason Smith is out indefinitely - Arm - 09/18/08
CONNECTICUT
(!) Tyler Lorenzen out at least 6 weeks. - Foot - 09/26/08
Steve Brouse is out indefinitely - Leg - 09/28/08
Alex LaMagdelanie is out for the season. - Shoulder - 09/12/08
Kendall Reyes left last game, upgraded to probable. - Ankle - 10/01/0
Jarrell Miller has left the team. - Personal - 08/02/08
Rob Lunn left last game, probable - Ankle - 09/28/08
Alex Polito missed last game, probable - Ankle - 09/28/08
Lindsey Witten left last game, probable - Leg - 09/28/08
DUKE
Re'Quan Boyette missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/27/08
Brandon King is out for the season. - Collarbone - 09/02/08
Marcus Lind missed last game, %27?%27 - Shoulder - 09/28/08
E CAROLINA
Dominique Lindsay is out for the season. - Knee - 08/17/08
DaRonte McNeil has transferred. - None - 08/26/08
TJ Lee missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/27/08
DeMorio Waymon has transferred. - None - 08/26/08
Stanley Bryant out indefinitely. - Leg - 09/15/08
Scotty Robinson missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/27/08
Brandon Setzer expected to miss the entire season - Knee - 08/14/08
Quentin Cotton expected to miss the rest of the season - Knee - 09/14
E MICHIGAN
Andy Schmitt limited last game, probable - Shoulder - 09/30/08
Kyle McMahon left last game, %27?%27 - Shoulder - 09/27/08
Tyler Palsrok is doubtful - Knee - 09/30/08
Derrick Hunter out indefinitely. - Knee - 09/09/08
FLA ATLANTIC
Darian Williams expected to miss entire season - Knee - 08/21/08
Jason Harmon expected to miss entire season - ACL - 07/17/08
Nick Paris missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/30/08
FLORIDA
Emmanuel Moody left last game, downgraded to doubtful. - Ankle - 09/2
Cornelius Ingram is out for the season. - ACL - 08/09/08
Aaron Hernandez is probable. - Foot - 09/30/08
Jim Tartt left last game, downgraded to expected to miss. - Shoulder
Jim Barrie expected to miss entire season - ACL - 08/12/08
Marcus Gilbert downgraded to doubtful - Ankle - 09/30/08
Torrey Davis missed last game doubtful - Disciplinary - 09/27/08
John Brown is out indefinitely. - Hand - 09/17/08
Dustin Doe downgraded to expected to miss next 2 games. - Hernia - 10
Ryan Stamper upgraded to probable - Ankle - 10/01/08
Brendan Beal is expected to miss entire season - ACL - 08/12/08
Dorian Munroe expected to miss entire season - ACL - 08/07/08
Will Hill left last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/29/08
FLORIDA ST
Emmanuel Dunbar is expected to miss entire season. - Back - 09/19/08
Moses McCray missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/27/08
Tavares Pressley is expected to miss entire season. - Knee - 08/29/08
Marcus Sims upgraded to probable - Suspension Served - 09/30/08
AJ Ganguzza missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/27/08
Evan Bellamy is expected to miss entire season. - Blood Clot - 07/17/
Paul Griffin upgraded to probable - Suspension Served - 09/29/08
Toddrick Verdell left last game, upgraded to probable. - Groin - 10/0
Tony Carter upgraded to probable - Groin - 09/30/08
Dionte Allen missed last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/27/08
Patrick Robinson upgraded to probable - Back - 09/30/08
FRESNO ST
Devon Wylie missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/27/08
Jason Crawley missed last game, %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/29/08
Cole Popovich is out indefinitely. - Quad - 09/16/08
Jon Monga expected to miss 3 - 4 weeks - Knee - 09/22/08
Quaadir Brown out for the season - Personal - 09/09/08
Nick Bates out 6-8 weeks. - Arm - 09/09/08
Ryan Machado out for the season. - ACL - 08/19/08
GEORGIA
Tavarres King is expected to miss. - Ankle - 09/24/08
Jeff Henson is out for the season. - Suspension - 09/19/08
(!) Matthew Stafford is probable. - Concussion - 09/29/08
(!) Knowshon Moreno is "?" October 11 vs Tennessee. - Elbow - 09/29/0
Trinton Sturdivant is expected to miss entire season. - Knee - 08/12/
Tripp Chandler is expected to miss. - Shoulder - 09/29/08
Bruce Figgins is expected to miss the rest of the season. - Shoulder
Roderick Battle missed last game %27?%27 - Neck - 09/27/08
Jeff Owens is expected to miss entire season - ACL - 08/31/08
Dannell Ellerbe left last game, "?". - Knee - 09/29/08
Charles White is expected to miss entire season - Achilles - 09/06/08
Quintin Banks missed last game, probable - MCL - 09/28/08
Chris Little out indefinitely. - Foot - 08/26/08
Kris Durham is expected to miss. - Ankle - 09/29/08
GEORGIA TECH
Josh Nesbitt left last game, "?". - Hamstring - 09/23/08
Correy Earls missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/20/08
AJ Smith missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss. - Elbow -
Brad Jefferson missed last game, downgraded to doubtful. - Arm - 09/3
Jerrard Tarrant has been suspended from the team. - Suspension - 07/0
Martin Frierson missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss. - K
HAWAII
Tyler Graunke available to play, not expected to start - Thumb - 09/3
Inoke Funaki expected to start - None - 09/30/08
Kealoha Pilares left last game, "?". - Concussion - 09/28/08
Malcolm Lane left last game %27?%27 - Concussion - 09/28/08
Keith AhSoon is expected to miss at least 6 weeks. - Shoulder - 09/17
Adam Leonard left last game %27?%27 - Undisclosed - 09/28/08
Blaze Soares missed last game, "?". - Calf - 09/27/08
Rocky Savaiigaea left last game, expected to miss - Tricep - 09/29/08
IDAHO
Maurice Shaw is downgraded to expected to miss - Leg - 10/01/08
Matt Cleveland is out indefinitely - Fibula - 09/08/08
Shiloh Keo is downgraded to expected to miss - Abdominal - 10/01/08
ILLINOIS
Ryan Palmer is expected to miss 3-4 weeks - Foot - 09/21/08
D'Angelo McCray has decided to transfer. - Academics - 08/01/08
Sirod Williams expected to miss the entire season - ACL - 08/13/08
Miami Thomas is out for the season. - ACL - 09/10/08
Daniel Dufrene left last game probable - Shoulder - 09/29/08
Brian Gamble has left the team. - Undisclosed - 09/08/08
INDIANA
Nick Polk missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/27/08
Andrew Means injured last game, probable. - Knee - 10/01/08
Christopher Phillips is out for the season - Knee - 09/24/08
Austin Thomas missed last game %27?%27 - Leg - 09/27/08
Joe Kleinsmith left last game, "?". - Undisclosed - 09/29/08
Jerimy Finch left last game, downgraded to doubtful. - Foot - 10/01/08
Tandon Doss injured last game, doubtful. - Undisclosed - 10/01/08
IOWA
Paki O'Meara missed last game, doubtful. - Knee - 09/30/08
(!) Shonn Greene left last game, probable - Head - 09/28/08
Dace Richardson is expected to miss entire season - Knee - 08/07/08
Dezman Moses is expected to miss next 4 games. - Suspension - 09/22/0
Tyler Sash missed last game, upgraded to "?". - Shoulder - 10/01/08
IOWA ST
Kennard Banks out indefinitely. - Arm - 09/02/08
Mike Knapp missed last game, %27?%27 - Appendix - 09/28/08
Michael Bibbs left last game, downgraded to doubtful. - Knee - 10/01/
KANSAS
Stephen Hoge has left the team. - Personal - 08/19/08
Kendrick Harper upgraded to probable. - Head - 10/01/08
Kyle Davis has quit the team. - Personal - 08/16/08
Carmon Boyd-Anderson has decided to transfer. - Personal - 08/16/08
Dexton Fields missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Leg - 10/01/0
KANSAS ST
Leon Patton has been dismissed from the team - Suspension - 09/14/08
Dee Bell missed last game %27?%27 - Undisclosed - 09/27/08
Xzavier Stewart upgraded to probable. - Undisclosed - 09/30/08
Antwon Moore injured last game, "?". - Leg - 09/30/08
Gary Chandler suspended indefinitely - Legal problems - 09/29/08
KENTUCKY
(!) Curtis Pulley has been dismissed from the team. - Disciplinary -
DeMoreo Ford upgraded to probable - Concussion - 09/30/08
EJ Fields is out indefinitely - Hamstring - 09/07/08
TC Drake upgraded to probable - Ankle - 09/30/08
Paul Warford will miss entire season - Eligibility - 08/07/08
David Jones left last game, "?" - Knee - 09/13/08
Ashton Cobb is out indefinitely - Suspension - 09/28/08
Justin Jeffries is out indefinitely. - MCL - 09/30/08
Josh Minton missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/29/08
Ricky Lumpkin downgraded to doubtful. - Ankle - 09/29/08
Micah Johnson is downgraded to doubtful - Ankle - 09/29/08
Randall Cobb is doubtful. - Ankle - 09/16/08
LOUISIANA TECH
William Griffin has decided to transfer. - Personal - 08/16/08
Rolando Melancon expected to miss entire season - Eligibility - 08/23
LOUISVILLE
Jajuan Spillman has been dismissed from the team. - Disciplinary - 07
Scott Long missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/26/08
Maurice Mitchell left last game %27?%27 - Leg - 09/26/08
Latarrius Thomas left last game,"?". - Shoulder - 09/26/08
(!) Hunter Cantwell left last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/26/08
Matt Simms has been suspended for the first 4 games of season. - Disc
George Stripling has been dismissed from the team. - Disciplinary - 0
Troy Pascley missed last game %27?%27 - Hip - 09/26/08
LSU
Ricky Jean-Francois left last game %27?%27 - Leg - 09/27/08
Charles Alexander is probable. - Undisclosed - 10/01/08
Darry Beckwith missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/27/08
MARSHALL
Omar Brown missed last game, %27?%27 - Undisclosed - 09/28/08
Maurice Graham out for season - Leg - 09/17/08
Charles Walker missed last game, %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Montel Glasco out for season - Leg - 09/17/08
Zearrick Matthews missed last game, %27?%27 - Foot - 09/27/08
JJ Johnson has been dismissed from team - Suspension - 09/01/08
MARYLAND
Mack Frost is "?". - Knee - 10/01/08
Travis Ivey is "?". - Foot - 10/01/08
Adrian Moten is expected to miss 4-5 weeks. - Wrist - 10/01/08
Nolan Carroll missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Foot - 10/01/
Richard Taylor out for the season - Knee - 09/21/08
Terrell Skinner missed last game, %27?%27 - Abdominal - 09/28/08
Jordan Steffy expected to miss - Thumb - 09/04/08
(!) Da"Rel Scott is "?" - Shoulder - 10/01/08
Danny Oquendo is "?". - Head - 10/01/08
Kevin Dorsey is expected to miss entire season - Foot - 09/05/08
LaQuan Williams missed last game, %27?%27 - Foot - 09/28/08
Kenny Tate is "?". - Elbow - 09/29/08
Joe Faiella is "?". - Undisclosed - 10/01/08
MEMPHIS
Charlie Jones injured last game, doubtful. - Knee - 09/30/08
Gregory Ray is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. - Hamstring - 09/12/08
TJ Pitts expected to miss 2-4 weeks. - Ankle - 08/27/08
Earnest Williams injured last game, upgraded to probable. - Thigh - 1
Terrence Echols injured last game, probable. - Toe - 09/30/08
Matt Reagan missed last game, "?". - Hip - 09/30/08
Greg Jackson missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Suspension Ser
MIAMI
Javarris James missed last game doubtful - Ankle - 09/27/08
Tommy Streeter is expected to miss entire season - Wrist - 09/01/08
Chris Barney is out indefinitely - Leg - 09/06/08
Reggie Youngblood left last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/28/08
Randy Phillips is out indefinitely. - Leg - 09/22/08
Chavez Grant left last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/29/08
Carlos Armour left last game %27?%27 - Undisclosed - 09/29/08
Courtney Harris expected to miss entire season - Achilles - 09/01/08
Marcus Forston upgraded to probable - Stinger - 09/30/08
Josh Holmes missed last game doubtful - Leg - 09/27/08
MIAMI OHIO
Jamel Miller has left the team - None - 09/28/08
Jamel Miller has left the team - None - 09/28/08
Brandon Brooks is %27?%27 - Toe - 09/28/08
Brandon Brooks is %27?%27 - Toe - 09/28/08
Dave DiFranco is %27?%27 - Arm - 09/28/08
Dave DiFranco is %27?%27 - Arm - 09/28/08
Jordan Gafford missed last game, doubtful - Leg - 09/28/08
Jordan Gafford missed last game, doubtful - Leg - 09/28/08
MICHIGAN
Terrence Robinson missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/27/08
Carlos Brown limited last game, %27?%27 - Leg - 09/30/08
Elliot Mealer is expected to miss entire season - Shoulder - 08/24/08
Cory Zirble is expected to miss 6-8 weeks - Knee - 08/28/08
Perry Dorrestein upgraded to probable - Knee - 09/30/08
Brandon Smith will likely redshirt - Appendix - 09/21/08
MICHIGAN ST
Brandon Long missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Undisclosed -
Jon Misch missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/27/08
Kendell Davis-Clark missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Shoulder
Roderick Jenrette has left the team. - Personal - 08/31/08
Enrique Shaw has left the team. - Personal - 08/15/08
MISSOURI
Kurtis Gregory is probable. - Ankle - 09/30/08
Bryan Webb has quit the team. - Personal - 08/16/08
Andy Maples is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. - Foot - 08/16/08
Michael Keck has quit the team. - Personal - 09/03/08
Steve Redmond expected to miss entire season - MCL - 09/15/08
William Moore missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Foot - 09/30/
N CAROLINA
(!) TJ Yates is expected to miss at least 6 weeks. - Ankle - 09/22/08
Cameron Sexton is expected to start. - None - 09/30/08
Darrius Massenburg missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/25/08
NAVY
Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada left last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/0
Andrew McGinn missed last game %27?%27 - Concussion - 09/27/08
Michael Walsh missed last game %27?%27 - Toe - 09/27/08
Kevin Edwards left last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/29/08
NEBRASKA
Thomas Lawson missed last game doubtful - Appendix - 09/27/08
Andy Christensen is %27?%27 - Illness - 09/30/08
Barry Turner out for the season. - Leg - 09/06/08
Kevin Dixon has been dismissed from the team. - Disciplinary - 08/07/
Anthony Blue is out indefinitely - Knee - 08/30/08
Larry Asante is %27?%27 - Undisclosed - 09/30/08
NEVADA
(!) Luke Lippincott out for season - ACL - 09/07/08
Brandon Fragger is downgraded to expected to miss - Shoulder - 10/01/
Josh Catapano is downgraded to expected to miss - Flu - 10/01/08
Dayton Guillory has been dismissed from team - Undisclosed - 09/06/08
NEW MEXICO
(!) Donovan Porterie is downgraded to expected to miss the remainder
(!) Rodney Ferguson left last game, upgraded to probable - Shoulder -
Paul Baker left last game, probable - Foot - 09/29/08
Phillip Harrison has left the team - Personal - 09/29/08
Ian Clark missed last game, upgraded to probable - Shoulder - 09/29/08
Jerome Jenkins out for the season - Ankle - 09/23/08
Mike Love is out indefinitely - Academics - 09/01/08
NEW MEXICO ST
Ryan Franzoy is out for the season. - ACL - 09/16/08
Kyle Smith missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/27/08
Chris Woods has transferred - None - 09/07/08
NORTH TEXAS
Marcus King has decided to transfer. - Personal - 08/16/08
Evan Fentriss has left the team - Personal - 08/30/08
Joseph Miller left last game, "?". - Knee - 09/27/08
Alonzo Horton expected to miss entire season - Eligibility - 08/14/08
Justin Padron has left the team - Personal - 08/30/08
Jamel Jackson is out indefinitely - Collarbone - 09/05/08
NORTHWESTERN
Andrew Brewer is downgraded to expected to miss - Undisclosed - 09/22
Drake Dunsmore expected to miss entire season - ACL - 08/11/08
Kurt Mattes missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/27/08
Justan Vaughn is downgraded to expected to miss the season - Illness
NOTRE DAME
Luke Schmidt is downgraded to out indefinitely - Headache - 09/30/08
Mike Ragone expected to miss the entire season - ACL - 08/22/08
Will Yeatman missed last game %27?%27 - Legal problems - 09/27/08
Darrin Walls has left the school. - Personal - 08/22/08
Jashaad Gaines out indefinitely - Personal - 09/20/08
OHIO ST
Maurice Wells missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Back - 10/01/
Rory Nicol left last game, downgraded to expected to miss. - Ankle -
Steve Rehring missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Foot - 09/29/
Austin Spitler missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss. - Un
Andre Amos is expected to miss the rest of the season. - Knee - 10/01
OHIO U
Theo Scott is out for the season. - Shoulder - 09/12/08
Chris Garrett upgraded to probable - Ankle - 10/01/08
Mitch Morsillo out for season - Shoulder - 08/31/08
Michael Philibin missed last game, "?". - Shoulder - 09/29/08
Gary Schussler left last game, out indefinitely - Ankle - 09/29/08
Chris Rodgers missed last game, "?". - Ankle - 09/30/08
Josh Leuck is "?". - Shoulder - 10/01/08
Ernie Hodge left last game, out indefinitely - Ankle - 09/29/08
Kris Luchsinger missed last game, %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
Lee Renfro is %27?%27 - Shoulder - 10/01/08
Jordan Meyers out for season - Knee - 09/29/08
OKLAHOMA
Jonathan Nelson left last game, expected to miss 6 weeks - Knee - 09/
Branndon Braxton left last game, "?". - Leg - 09/28/08
Trent Williams left last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
DeMarcus Granger will be out at least 4 weeks and could miss the rest
John Williams is out indefinitely. - Personal - 09/02/08
Eric Mensik is expected to miss at least 4 weeks. - Ankle - 09/24/08
OKLAHOMA ST
Jeray Chatham missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/28/08
Lucien Antoine is expected to miss the remainder of the season. - Knee
William Cole will miss entire season - Knee - 08/17/08
Artrell Woods missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Brandon Pettigrew missed last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
Michael Booker has transferred. - None - 08/20/08
OLE MISS
John Jerry injured last game, upgraded to probable. - Shoulder - 09/3
Marcus Temple is "?". - Foot - 10/01/08
OREGON
(!) Nathan Costa expected to miss the season - ACL - 08/24/08
Justin Roper downgraded to expected to miss. - Knee - 10/01/08
Jamere Holland missed last game %27?%27 - Concussion - 09/28/08
Kevin Garrett has been dismissed from the team. - Suspension - 08/26/
Eddie Pleasant missed last game %27?%27 - Legal problems - 09/27/08
Marvin Johnson missed last game, %27?%27 - Undisclosed - 09/29/08
Terrell Turner is expected to miss 2-6 weeks. - Knee - 10/01/08
OREGON ST
Cameron Collins missed last game, %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
Patrick Fuller has transferred - None - 09/01/08
(!) Sammie Stroughter is probable. - Hip - 09/29/08
Gabe Miller is "?". - Groin - 10/01/08
Brent McNeil is out indefinitely - Toe - 09/01/08
Jeremy Perry missed last game, %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Tavita Thompson will be eligible to return on (11/01) vs Arizona State
Justin Kahut missed last game %27?%27 - Hip - 09/28/08
Brandon Hughes is "?". - Thigh - 09/29/08
James Dockery is out indefinitely - Knee - 09/25/08
Al Afalava is "?". - Groin - 10/01/08
Bryan Payton has transferred - None - 09/01/08
Sean Canfield is %27?%27 - Shoulder - 09/28/08
PENN ST
Jordan Norwood missed last game, %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
Doug Klopacz is out for the season - ACL - 09/24/08
Ako Poti missed last game, %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Phillip Taylor dismissed from team. - Dismissed - 08/01/08
Chris Baker dismissed from team. - Dismissed - 08/01/08
Devon Still is out for the season. - Ankle - 09/10/08
Jerome Hayes out for the season - ACL - 09/07/08
Nick Sukay is expected to miss entire season - Foot - 09/01/08
PURDUE
(!) Kory Sheets is upgraded to probable - Shoulder - 09/30/08
Jaycen Taylor is expected to miss the rest of the season. - Knee - 08
Jared Zwilling is upgraded to probable - Ankle - 09/28/08
Jason Werner missed last game, expected to miss - Back - 09/27/08
Frank Duong is downgraded to doubtful - Knee - 09/30/08
RICE
Brian Raines upgraded to "?". - Knee - 09/30/08
Vernon James out for the season - Knee - 09/09/08
Brandon King is out for the season. - Foot - 09/17/08
Joseph Leary is "?". - Leg - 09/30/08
RUTGERS
Jabu Lovelace is out indefinitely - Leg - 09/25/08
Mike Gilmartin injured last game, "?". - Undisclosed - 09/30/08
Anthony Davis missed last game, probable. - Suspension Served - 09/30
Kenny Britt missed last game, probable. - Suspension Served - 09/29/0
George Johnson left last game, upgraded to probable. - Ankle - 09/30/
Peter Tverdov upgraded to probable. - Ankle - 09/30/08
Gary Watts is out for the season. - Knee - 09/12/08
Courtney Greene injured last game, upgraded to probable. - Ankle - 09
Mason Robinson limited last game, "?". - Hip - 10/01/08
Kordell Young missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss. - Kne
S CAROLINA
Kenny McKinley missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss. - Ha
S FLORIDA
George Selvie missed last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/27/08
Brouce Mompremier out indefinitely - Neck - 09/20/08
Alonzo McQueen missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/27/08
Theo Wilson is expected to miss. - Knee - 09/30/08
Zach Hermann is expected to miss at least a month. - Foot - 09/11/08
Danny Tolley is out indefinitely - ACL - 08/07/08
Justin Teachey missed last game %27?%27 - Thigh - 09/27/08
Terrell McClain missed last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/27/08
Carlton Williams left last game, %27?%27 - Undisclosed - 09/27/08
SAN DIEGO ST
Waika Spencer left last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
Tony DeMartinis is expected to miss the season. - Knee - 09/03/08
Darren Mougey missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
Jon Toledo missed last game, %27?%27 - Toe - 09/29/08
Davon Brown is downgraded to expected to miss - Shoulder - 09/29/08
Neil Spencer is expected to miss entire season - Shoulder - 09/08/08
Ernie Lawson is expected to miss at least 3 weeks - Mononucleosis - 0
Davion Mauldin missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/27/08
SAN JOSE ST
Kevin Jurovich is out indefinitely. - Mononucleosis - 09/16/08
SMU
Cole Loftin expected to miss at least 6 weeks. - Collarbone - 09/23/0
Mitch Enright missed last game %27?%27 - Hand - 09/29/08
Anthony Sowe is expected to miss. - Suspension - 09/29/08
Logan Turner expected to miss next 2 games. - Suspension - 09/29/08
Quincey Whittington is expected to miss next 2 games. - Suspension -
SOUTHERN MISS
Korey Williams is out indefinitely. - Jaw - 09/30/08
STANFORD
Toby Gerhart left last game, %27?%27 - Concussion - 09/27/08
Richard Sherman is downgraded to expected to miss - Knee - 10/01/08
Marcus Rance out indefinitely - Knee - 09/01/08
Gustav Rydstedt missed last game %27?%27 - Concussion - 09/27/08
Allen Smith out for season - Knee - 08/07/08
Corey Gatewood missed last game, %27?%27 - Leg - 09/28/08
Austin Yancy out indefinitely - Hamstring - 09/01/08
SYRACUSE
Mike Williams is academically ineligible - Academics - 08/08/08
Dan Sheeran is out indefinitely. - Leg - 08/12/08
John Barker is out indefinitely - Suspension - 08/23/08
Brandon Gilbeaux is academically ineligible - Academics - 08/08/08
TCU
Sir Demarco Bledsoe out indefinitely - Suspension - 09/29/08
Jason Teague is expected to miss 3-5 weeks. - Knee - 09/10/08
Andy Dalton injured last game, probable - Knee - 09/29/08
TEMPLE
(!) Adam DiMichele is expected to miss 3-6 weeks. - Shoulder - 09/21/
Leyon Azubuike missed last game doubtful - Knee - 09/29/08
Anthony Ferla will redshirt - Undisclosed - 09/03/08
Daryl Robinson has left the team. - Personal - 09/05/08
TEXAS
Foswhitt Whittaker downgraded to doubtful - Kidney - 09/30/08
Luke Tiemann left last game, out for season - ACL - 09/29/08
Blaine Irby is expected to miss the rest of the season. - Knee - 09/2
Josh Marshall out indefinitely - Shoulder - 09/01/08
Ishie Oduegwu out indefinitely - Shoulder - 09/01/08
TEXAS A&M
Stephen McGee downgraded to doubtful. - Shoulder - 09/27/08
Cornell Tarrant has decided to transfer. - Personal - 08/29/08
Keondra Smith missed last game %27?%27 - Undisclosed - 09/28/08
Roger Holland is expected to miss entire season - Concussion - 09/01/
Michael Bennett left last game, %27?". - Leg - 09/27/08
Anthony Vela missed last game, %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/29/08
Jordan Peterson missed last game %27?%27 - Shoulder - 09/28/08
TEXAS TECH
Aaron Crawford is "?". - Toe - 10/01/08
Adam James is "?". - Undisclosed - 10/01/08
Pete Richardson is "?". - Hamstring - 10/01/08
TOLEDO
Buster Garrett missed last game %27?%27 - Leg - 09/27/08
Tyrrell Herbert left last game, upgraded to probable. - Undisclosed -
DaJuane Collins missed last game, upgraded to probable - Ankle - 09/2
TROY
Chris Anderson is out indefinitely - Eligibility - 09/22/08
Kenny Mainor out for the season - Knee - 09/22/08
TULANE
Andre Agers is out indefinitely - Suspension - 08/07/08
Chris Dunn missed last game %27?%27 - Shoulder - 09/29/08
Tyler Rice missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/25/08
Travis Olexa expected to miss entire season - Knee - 08/31/08
Alex Lauricella missed last game, "?". - Knee - 09/25/08
TULSA
Courtney Tennial missed last game %27?%27 - Undisclosed - 09/20/08
UAB
Aaron Johns expected to miss 2-5 weeks - Undisclosed - 09/15/08
Frantrell Forrest missed last game, probable - Personal - 09/28/08
Sylvester Mencer is expected to miss entire season - Shoulder - 08/29
Cory Powers has left the team - None - 09/17/08
Jake Seitz is "?". - Hand - 09/29/08
Kyle Roget is expected to miss entire season - Hip - 08/29/08
Ryan Roget has left the team - Knee - 09/17/08
Andre Hicks is "?". - Undisclosed - 09/29/08
Terry Thomas is out indefinitely - Leg - 09/05/08
Terrell Springs left last game, %27?%27 - Stomach - 09/28/08
UCF
Michael Greco upgraded to probable, %27?%27 to start - Knee - 10/01/0
Phillip Smith has been dismissed from the team. - Disciplinary - 08/0
AJ Guyton expected to miss entire season - ACL - 08/07/08
Rocky Ross out for the season - Collarbone - 09/29/08
Jeramy DeVane is out indefinitely - Personal - 09/22/08
Patrick Brown upgraded to probable - Leg - 10/01/08
Cory Hogue is expected to miss 4 weeks. - Leg - 09/30/08
UCLA
Patrick Cowan expected to miss entire season - ACL - 08/14/08
(!) Ben Olson is expected to miss at least 8 weeks. - Foot - 08/11/08
Korey Bosworth is probable. - Elbow - 09/30/08
Marcus Everett missed last game, %27?%27 - Toe - 09/27/08
Jamil Turner has left the team. - None - 07/28/08
Logan Paulsen could miss the rest of the season. - Foot - 09/03/08
Micah Reed left last game, downgraded to expected to miss 2-4 weeks -
Sean Sheller expected to miss entire season. - Knee - 09/20/08
Kyle Bosworth missed last game, doubtful - Knee - 09/27/08
Aundre Dean missed last game, %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/29/08
Christian Ramirez is ineligible. - Academics - 07/28/08
Trevor Theriot is expected to miss the rest of season - MCL - 09/27/0
UNLV
Starr Fuimaono is out for the season. - Knee - 09/10/08
Frank Summers limited last game, probable. - Knee - 10/01/08
David Peeples missed last game, %27?%27 - Foot - 09/28/08
Austin Harrington missed last game, %27?%27 - Leg - 09/28/08
USC
Zack Heberer left last game, downgraded to out indefinitely. - Toe -
Michael Reardon is out indefinitely - Hip - 09/07/08
Rey Maualuga left last game, "?". - Knee - 09/26/08
Chris Galippo missed last 3 games, "?". - Back - 09/25/08
Brian Cushing left last game, upgraded to probable. - Hand - 09/30/08
Shareece Wright is expected to miss up to 6 weeks. - Neck - 09/23/08
UTAH
Brad Clifford expected to miss - Hip - 09/20/08
Robert Conley missed last game, probable. - Knee - 09/30/08
Lei Talamaivao is expected to miss entire season - Ankle - 09/07/08
Kenape Eliapo out 6-8 weeks - Foot - 09/01/08
Matt Martinez is out for the season. - Bicep - 09/17/08
UTAH ST
Jase McCormick has left the team. - Personal - 08/12/08
Jacob Actkinson is expected to miss the season. - Shoulder - 08/26/08
Rob Myers is expected to miss rest of the season. - Toe - 09/05/08
Jordan Glass is out for the season. - Fibula - 09/16/08
UTEP
Braxton Amy expected to miss entire season - ACL - 08/07/08
Roddray Walker is out indefinitely - Shoulder - 08/13/08
VANDERBILT
Jermaine Doster is suspended for 2008-2009 season. - Legal problems -
Alex Washington expected to miss entire season - Knee - 08/10/08
Chris Reinert out for season - Leg - 09/07/08
Chris Nickson missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Shoulder - 09
Jeff Jennings missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Shoulder - 09
George Smith missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Foot - 09/30/0
John Cole is expected to miss at least 8 weeks. - Knee - 09/02/08
Derrius Dowell expected to miss entire season - Knee - 08/15/08
Darlon Spead out indefinitely. - Fibula - 09/08/08
VIRGINIA
(!) Peter Lalich has been dismissed from team - Legal problems - 09/1
Cedric Peerman missed last game, "?". - Undisclosed - 09/30/08
Sean Gottschalk is out indefinitely - Undisclosed - 09/28/08
John Bivens has left the team - None - 09/28/08
Matt Leemhuis is %27?%27 - Thumb - 09/28/08
Raynard Horne missed last game, "?". - Undisclosed - 09/30/08
Keith Payne injured last game, "?". - Hand - 09/30/08
VIRGINIA TECH
Bruce Taylor missed last game, downgraded to likely to miss the rest
Xavier Boyce is expected to miss the rest of the season. - Knee - 10/
Tyrod Taylor is probable. - Knee - 10/01/08
Ryan Williams will redshirt. - None - 09/17/08
Kenny Younger missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/27/08
Zach Luckett is out indefinitely - Suspension - 09/08/08
Brandon Dillard expected to miss entire season - ACL - 07/17/08
Davon Morgan left last game, out for season - ACL - 09/28/08
Ron Cooper is expected to miss the season. - ACL - 08/11/08
W MICHIGAN
David Lewis is out for the season. - Arm - 09/16/08
Jordan White expected to miss 4-6 weeks. - Knee - 08/23/08
Matt Lochmann is out for the season - Leg - 09/27/08
Andy Laue has left the team. - None - 08/19/08
Kirk Elsworth left last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/29/08
Dervon Wallace is out indefinitely - Knee - 09/05/08
W VIRGINIA
Pat Liebig missed last game, probable. - Head - 10/01/08
Jim Lewis is expected to miss at least 5 weeks. - Foot - 10/01/08
(!) Pat White left last game, probable - Thumb - 09/28/08
Zach Hulse out indefinitely - Shoulder - 09/16/08
Reed Williams is "?". - Shoulder - 10/01/08
WAKE FOREST
Ryan Britt is out indefinitely. - Knee - 08/19/08
WASHINGTON ST
Jessy Sanchez is out indefinitely. - Shoulder - 09/09/08
Gary Rogers out for the season - Back - 09/21/08
(!) Kevin Lopina expected to miss 2-6 weeks. - Back - 09/24/08
Daniel Blackledge left last game %27?%27 - Shoulder - 09/28/08
Keith Rosenberg has left the team. - Personal - 09/05/08
Dan Rowlands has left the team. - Shoulder - 08/27/08
Kevin Kooyman missed last game, %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/29/08
Andy Roof has been dismissed from the team. - Suspension - 08/27/08
Cory Evans missed last game, %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/29/08
Jason Stripling is out for the season. - Shoulder - 09/24/08
WISCONSIN
Garrett Graham missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Ankle - 10/0
Maurice Moore missed last game %27?%27 - Groin - 09/28/08
Travis Beckum limited last game, "?". - Hamstring - 09/30/08
Kirk DeCremer out for the season - Back - 08/31/08
Aaron Henry is out indefinitely. - Knee - 09/25/08
WYOMING
Brian Hendricks missed last game, upgraded to probable. - Knee - 10/0
Matt Barella missed last game, "?". - Shoulder - 09/29/08
Fred Givens injured last game, upgraded to probable. - Ankle - 10/01/
Karsten Sween is expected to start. - None - 10/01/08
Ian Hetrick is doubtful. - Knee - 10/01/08
Brandon Stewart upgraded to probable. - Shoulder - 10/01/08
Travis Hillen missed last game, %27?%27 - Shoulder - 09/29/08
Clayton Kirven is doubtful. - Ankle - 10/01/08
Anthony Wilson out for season - Eligibility - 09/14/08
Alex Toney missed last game, downgraded to doubtful. - Back - 10/01/0
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 3:09am -
0 likes
NFL Football Injury Report
ARIZONA
Al Johnson I.R. - Knee - 09/01/08
Bertrand Berry expected to miss 2-3 weeks - Groin - 10/01/08
Gabriel Watson is upgraded to probable - Knee - 10/01/08
(!) Anquan Boldin injured last game expected to miss - Head - 09/28/08
Adrian Wilson missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
Jerame Tuman missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
Eric Green is "?" - Knee - 10/01/08
ATLANTA
Von Hutchins IR - Foot - 07/28/08
Alex Stepanovich missed last game %27?%27 - Back - 09/28/08
Lawyer Milloy left last game, "?" - Ribs - 09/28/08Laurent Robinson missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Thomas Brown IR - Leg - 08/30/08
Sam Baker missed last game %27?%27 - Dizziness - 09/28/08
BALTIMORE
P.J. Daniels IR - Shoulder - 08/12/08
Willis McGahee injured last game probable - Chest - 09/29/08
Kelly Talavou IR. - Shoulder - 08/26/08
Prescott Burgess IR - Wrist - 08/12/08
Troy Smith missed last game doubtful - Mouth - 09/29/08
Dwan Edwards IR. - Back - 08/26/08
Samari Rolle is downgraded to doubtful - Shoulder - 10/01/08
Dawan Landry is out indefinitely - Neck - 09/22/08
Kyle Boller IR - Shoulder - 09/03/08
Kelly Gregg is downgraded to doubtful - Knee - 10/01/08
Nick Greisen missed last game %27?%27 - Quad - 09/29/08
Quinn Sypniewski IR - Knee - 07/25/08
BUFFALO
Roscoe Parrish expected to miss 4-6 weeks - Finger - 09/24/08
Marcus Stroud is "?" - Hand - 10/01/08
Angelo Crowell IR - Knee - 09/04/08
Terrence McGee left last game, "?" - Knee - 09/28/08
Derek Fine is out indefinitely - Thumb - 08/26/08
CAROLINA
Dan Connor IR - Knee - 09/22/08
Jeff Otah left last game, "?" - Knee - 09/28/08
Jordan Gross is downgraded to doubtful - Concussion - 09/29/08
Ryne Robinson missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Ma'ake Kemoeatu injured last game, "?" - Elbow - 10/01/08
Matt Moore is out 4-6 weeks. - Leg - 09/03/08
CHICAGO
Tommie Harris missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Nathan Vasher injured last game, "?" - Thumb - 09/29/08
Charles Tillman injured last game, "?" - Shoulder - 09/29/08
Brandon Lloyd left last game, "?" - Knee - 09/29/08
Chris Williams is out indefinitely - Back - 08/07/08
Brandon McGowan IR - Ankle - 09/17/08
CINCINNATI
DeDe Dorsey IR - Hamstring - 09/30/08
Johnathan Joseph missed last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
(!) Carson Palmer downgraded to doubtful. - Elbow - 09/28/08
Jeremi Johnson IR - Knee - 09/04/08
Chris Henry is doubtful - Suspension Served - 09/30/08
Herana-Daze Jones missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
Kenny Watson is downgraded to doubtful - Hamstring - 09/30/08
Dexter Jackson missed last game %27?%27 - Thumb - 09/28/08
CLEVELAND
Sean Jones is expected to miss at least four weeks. - Knee - 09/10/08
Daven Holly IR - Knee - 07/25/08
Robaire Smith IR - Achilles - 09/15/08
Lennie Friedman IR - Shoulder - 08/30/08
Ryan Tucker missed last game %27?%27 - Hip - 09/28/08
Willie McGinest missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
Antwan Peek expected to miss rest of season. - Knee - 09/04/08
Joe Jurevicius is expected to miss first 6 games. - Knee - 08/28/08
Donte' Stallworth missed last game %27?%27 - Quad - 09/28/08
DALLAS
Kyle Kosier expected to miss 2-3 weeks - Foot - 09/22/08
Roy Williams is expected to miss at least 3 weeks. - Forearm - 09/16/08
Tank Johnson is %27?%27 - Ankle - 10/01/08
Deon Anderson is expected to miss at least 2 weeks - Knee - 09/17/08
DENVER
Tom Nalen IR - Knee - 09/21/08
Dewayne Robertson missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Darrell Jackson missed last game %27?%27 - Calf - 09/28/08
Anthony Alridge IR - Hamstring - 08/29/08
Ryan Torain expected to miss up to 3 months - Elbow - 08/07/08
Carlton Powell expected to miss at least six weeks. - Knee - 08/27/08
Josh Shaw expected to miss 2-3 weeks - Groin - 09/25/08
Clifford Russell IR - Neck - 10/01/08
DETROIT
Aveion Cason IR - Ankle - 08/31/08
(!) Jon Kitna upgraded to probable - Knee - 10/01/08
Stephen Peterman injured last game, doubtful - Hand - 09/22/08
Shaun Cody is "?" - Knee - 10/01/08
Stanley Wilson IR - Achilles - 09/04/08
Dan Campbell IR - Hamstring - 09/09/08
Jon Bradley IR - Shoulder - 08/20/08
Travis Fisher is "?" - Groin - 10/01/08
GREEN BAY
Justin Harrell is expected to miss first 6 games - Back - 08/25/08
Aaron Rouse is "?" - Knee - 10/01/08
(!) Aaron Rodgers injured last game, "?". - Shoulder - 09/28/08
A.J. Hawk left last game, "?". - Groin - 09/29/08
Cullen Jenkins IR - Chest - 10/01/08
Korey Hall missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Al Harris expected to miss 3 weeks - Spleen - 09/21/08
Jason Hunter injured last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
James Jones missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Nick Collins injured last game %27?%27 - Back - 09/28/08
JJ Jansen IR - Knee - 08/30/08
Josh Sitton missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Atari Bigby missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
INDIANAPOLIS
Dan Federkeil injured last game, "?" - Ribs - 09/23/08
Bob Sanders is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. - Ankle - 09/17/08
T.J. Rushing IR - Knee - 08/25/08
Tyjuan Hagler expected to miss at least six weeks. - Pectoral - 08/02/08
Ryan Lilja expected to miss at least six weeks. - Knee - 08/09/08
Michael Coe IR - Knee - 08/13/08
Roy Hall missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/21/08
Mike Pollak expected to miss at least 4 weeks. - Knee - 09/10/08
Tony Ugoh is upgraded to probable - Groin - 10/01/08
JACKSONVILLE
Scott Starks IR - Knee - 09/24/08
Dennis Northcutt missed last game %27?%27 - Leg - 09/28/08
Richard Collier reserve/non-football injury list - Upper Body - 09/02/08
Reggie Nelson missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Rashean Mathis left last game, "?" - Shin - 09/29/08
Vince Manuwai IR - Knee - 09/08/08
Brad Meester is expected to miss 8-10 weeks. - Bicep - 08/09/08
Chris Naeole missed last game, "?" - Knee - 10/01/08
Maurice Williams IR - Bicep - 09/08/08
Justin Durant missed last game %27?%27 - Leg - 09/28/08
KANSAS CITY
(!) Brodie Croyle out indefinitely - Shoulder - 09/07/08
Patrick Surtain missed last game %27?%27 - Shoulder - 09/28/08
Donnie Edwards missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/28/08
Kevin Robinson expected to miss at least six weeks. - Knee - 08/27/08
Branden Albert left last game, "?".. - Elbow - 09/28/08
MIAMI
Donald Thomas IR - Ankle - 09/10/08
Tab Perry IR - Achilles - 07/27/08
MINNESOTA
Jayme Mitchell IR - Knee - 08/09/08
Ray Edwards missed last game %27?%27 - Shoulder - 09/28/08
Kenechi Udeze expected to miss entire season - Illness - 08/16/08
E.J. Henderson is downgraded to doubtful - Foot - 09/29/08
Bryant McKinnie is probable - Suspension Served - 09/29/08
Madieu Williams missed last game %27?%27 - Neck - 09/28/08
Thomas Tapeh expected to miss - Undisclosed - 09/28/08
Heath Farwell IR - Knee - 08/11/08
Kenderick Allen IR - Wrist - 08/19/08
Vinny Ciurciu missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
(!) Gus Frerotte is upgraded to probable - Hand - 09/29/08
NEW ENGLAND
Dan Connolly missed last game, %27?%27 - Knee - 09/21/08
Kelley Washington is "?" - Ankle - 10/01/08
(!) Tom Brady IR - Knee - 09/07/08
Laurence Maroney missed last game, %27?%27. - Shoulder - 09/21/08
Tank Williams IR. - Knee - 08/09/08
Eric Alexander is "?" - Calf - 10/01/08
NEW ORLEANS
Jamar Nesbit has been suspended for 4 games - Suspension - 09/23/08
Mike Karney missed last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
Jeremy Shockey expected to miss 3-6 weeks. - Hernia - 09/22/08
Mark Simoneau IR - Back - 09/12/08
Marques Colston expected to miss 4-6 weeks - Thumb - 09/10/08
Aaron Stecker missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
Randall Gay missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
David Patten left last game, "?" - Groin - 09/29/08
Mark Campbell injured last game, "?" - Hamstring - 10/01/08
Aaron Glenn is downgraded to doubtful - Knee - 10/01/08
Martin Gramatica is "?" - Groin - 10/01/08
Chris Reis left last game, "?" - Hamstring - 09/29/08
NY GIANTS
R.W. McQuarters missed last game, %27?%27 - Calf - 09/21/08
David Tyree expected to miss at least six weeks. - Knee - 08/26/08
Shane Olivea IR - Back - 08/14/08
Lawrence Tynes missed last game, %27?%27 - Leg - 09/21/08
Jerome McDougle is "?" - Knee - 10/01/08
Osi Umenyiora IR - Knee - 08/26/08
Plaxico Burress expected to miss 1 game - Suspension - 09/24/08
Terrell Thomas missed last game, %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/21/08
NY JETS
David Clowny is out indefinitely - Collarbone - 09/04/08
Brad Kassell IR - Knee - 08/10/08
Jesse Chatman is upgraded to probable - Suspension Served - 09/30/08
Mike Nugent missed last game %27?%27 - Thigh - 09/28/08
Eric Smith 1-game suspension, expected to miss next game. - Suspension - 09/30/08
Cameron Worrell IR - Knee - 09/04/08
Justin Miller missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/28/08
Reggie Hodges missed last game %27?%27 - Thigh - 09/28/08
OAKLAND
Oren O'Neal IR - Knee - 08/24/08
Lane Kiffin has been fired, offensive line coach Tom Cable named interim coach - None - 09/30/08
Gerard Warren missed last game %27?%27 - Pectoral - 09/28/08
Cooper Carlisle missed last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/28/08
Seth Wand missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/26/08
Justin Fargas missed last game %27?%27 - Groin - 09/28/08
Ben Troupe missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/26/08
Paul McQuistan IR - Knee - 09/10/08
PHILADELPHIA
Kevin Curtis missed last game %27?%27 - Hernia - 09/28/08
Shawn Andrews missed last game %27?%27 - Back - 09/28/08
L.J. Smith missed last game %27?%27 - Back - 09/26/08
(!) Brian Westbrook missed last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/27/08
Jack Ikegwuonu IR - Knee - 08/27/08
PITTSBURGH
Rashard Mendenhall IR - Shoulder - 09/30/08
Donovan Woods missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/29/08
Kendall Simmons IR - Achilles - 09/30/08
Casey Hampton missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss. - Groin - 09/30/08
Charlie Batch IR - Collarbone - 08/30/08
Andre Frazier injured last game, "?". - Cervical Strain - 09/29/08
Brett Keisel expected to miss up to two months - Calf - 09/15/08
(!) Willie Parker is downgraded to expected to miss - Knee - 09/30/08
Carey Davis is downgraded to doubtful - Ankle - 09/30/08
Keyaron Fox is "?". - Undisclosed - 09/30/08
Daniel Sepulveda IR - Knee - 07/30/08
SAN DIEGO
Stephen Cooper missed last game probable - Suspension Served - 09/28/08
Shawne Merriman IR - Knee - 09/10/08
Mike Goff is "?" - Knee - 10/01/08
SAN FRANCISCO
Shawntae Spencer IR - Knee - 09/24/08
Alex Smith IR - Shoulder - 09/07/08
Manny Lawson is downgraded to doubtful - Hamstring - 10/01/08
Jonas Jennings is downgraded to doubtful - Shoulder - 10/01/08
SEATTLE
Koren Robinson missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/21/08
Nate Burleson IR - Knee - 09/08/08
Ben Obomanu IR - Shoulder - 08/31/08
Rob Sims IR - Pectoral - 09/09/08
Logan Payne IR - Knee - 09/15/08
Wesley Mallard IR. - Knee - 08/06/08
Bobby Engram is upgraded to probable - Shoulder - 09/30/08
Seneca Wallace expected to miss three to four weeks - Calf - 09/15/08
Maurice Morris missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/21/08
Deion Branch is upgraded to probable - Knee - 09/30/08
ST LOUIS
Brandon Gorin IR - Shoulder - 08/18/08
Will Witherspoon injured last game, "?" - Shoulder - 09/30/08
Randy McMichael expected to miss at least 8 weeks - Ankle - 09/30/08
Antonio Pittman is downgraded to expected to miss four to six weeks - Leg - 09/22/08
Mark Setterstrom IR - Knee - 08/17/08
Tye Hill expected to miss at least 4 weeks - Knee - 09/30/08
Dane Looker injured last game, "?" - Concussion - 09/30/08
Marc Bulger has been named starting quarterback - None - 09/30/08
Drew Bennett expected to miss up to six weeks - Foot - 09/08/08
Justin King IR - Toe - 08/16/08
Scott Linehan has been fired, DC Jim Haslett has been named interim coach - None - 09/29/08
TAMPA BAY
Carnell Williams is expected to miss first 6 games. - Knee - 08/28/08
Joey Galloway missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/28/08
Davin Joseph missed last game %27?%27 - Foot - 09/28/08
Sabby Piscitelli left last game, "?" - Elbow - 09/29/08
B.J. Askew missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
Ryan Sims missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/28/08
TENNESSE
(!) Vince Young downgraded to out 2-4 weeks - Knee - 09/07/08
WASHINGTON
Stephon Heyer is downgraded to doubtful - Shoulder - 10/01/08
Jason Taylor missed last game %27?%27 - Calf - 09/28/08
Erasmus James missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/28/08
Phillip Daniels IR - Knee - 07/21/08
Shawn Springs is upgraded to probable - Calf - 10/01/08
Fred Smoot is "?". - Undisclosed - 09/30/08
Alex Buzbee IR - Achilles - 09/04/08
Malcolm Kelly missed last game %27?%27 - Ankle - 09/25/08
posted by phantom
Oct. 8 2008 3:10am -
0 likes
Sports Memo
TEDDY COVERS
NEW ENGLAND AT SAN DIEGO -5
O/U 45 Recommendation: San Diego
When Drew Bledsoe got hurt and Tom Brady became the savior of the franchise, head coach Bill Belichick earned his reputation by parlaying a dominant defense and powerful running game into a Super Bowl title. That was 2001, this is 2008. The Patriots don’t have a strong running game or a dominant defense for Belichick to rely on at this juncture. New England managed only 3.3 yards per carry against the 49ers’ weak run defense last week after gaining only 78 yards on the ground in their ugly loss to Miami. The Pats defense looks older and slower with each passing week and has had consistent coverage problems in the secondary. And let’s not forget that after facing the Jets, Dolphins, Chiefs and 49ers in their first four games of the campaign, this is a huge step up in class for New England. San Diego is once again hungry and desperate, following its own poorly played loss against the Dolphins. Qualcomm Stadium has been rather friendly for the hosts in recent games. The Char¬gers are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight home games, winning six of those games by two touchdowns. With revenge on their minds following their playoff ouster in the AFC Championship Game at New England last January, we’ll back the Chargers.
FAIRWAY JAY
CHICAGO AT ATLANTA +2.5
O/U 43 Recommendation: Atlanta
The Dolphins delivered another outright underdog winner for us last week, and we’ll shoot for the Falcons to fly this Sunday. Both the Bears and Falcons have sur¬prised most observers and betting backers, but their success can be linked to suc¬cess at the line of scrimmage. Chicago’s run defense is top-5 in the NFL but have not faced a ground attack in the top 25 percent. They will the next two weeks starting with Atlanta’s No. 1 rated rushing attack (180 ypg). Michael Turner comes in off another 100+ rushing performance in the win over Green Bay. We expect speedy Jerious Norwood to be more involved this week as both a runner and pass catcher to offset the Bears’ strength in their front seven. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan is playing poised, delivering the ball with the quickness and accuracy of a seasoned veteran. The Bears offense is in the top 3 in the NFC in yards-per-point, proving their efficiency and ability to score. But after an easy time of it on the road last week fac¬ing the league’s worst defense in Detroit, expect the Bears to be in for a real battle Sunday. Solid situation for Atlanta returning home off a win as an underdog. They are still being undervalued and we’ll take the points against an equal opponent.
ROB VENO
OKLAHOMA -7 VS. TEXAS
O/U 57 Recommendation: Oklahoma
Texas’ pass defense has been labeled as their most pressing concern by almost every college football analyst, and that concern is going to become a real¬ity on Saturday. The Longhorns pass rush has been able to somewhat mask the inexperience in the defensive backfield but that asset won’t be nearly as productive against OU. On the season, Texas has recorded 19 sacks but 14 of those were against the overmatched offensive lines of Rice and Arkansas. In Oklahoma, they face an opponent which has allowed just five quarterback sacks in 168 pass attempts thus far this season. With time, QB Sam Bradford (72.6% completions, 18 TDs, 3 INTs) and the Sooners ultra-deep and tal¬ented receiving corps will churn their way to 300+ yards and 35+ points. The three-headed ground attack will figure prominently too and the backs will be productive on screen passes. Obviously Texas has very impressive offensive numbers to date also, but they’ll be facing a veteran group that is playing ex¬cellent defense that yields just 3.8 yards per play. Oklahoma’s edge in overall defense springs the double-digit win here as they steamroll their way to 6-0.
ED CASH
ARKANSAS +19 AT AUBURN
O/U 39 Recommendation: Arkansas
I am not sure what Auburn has done to become a 19-point conference favorite this year. They have been horrible offensively, and after losing to Vanderbilt last week for their second conference loss, it is going to be tough for this coaching staff to get the train back on the tracks. There seems to be some disagreement among head coach Tommy Tuberville and OC Tony Franklin about the direction of the offense and who should be at quarterback. I don’t expect things to get bet¬ter overnight or even at all this season. This week they face an Arkansas team that is slowly improving in Bobby Petrino’s first year. They were beaten 38-7 last week at home by Florida, but the game was much closer than the final score. It was 17-7 in the fourth quarter and Arkansas was very much in the game, play¬ing Florida very tough on both sides of the line of scrimmage. It would not sur¬prise me at all if they broke out with a big game this week at Auburn. Auburn lost two key defenders in the Vandy game to injuries, and we all know that defense is the Tigers’ only strength. Auburn probably scores a few more than its 18 ppg average on the season, but it won’t be enough to cover this week.
DONNIE BLACK
ARIZONA STATE +25.5 AT USC
O/U 46.5 Recommendation: Arizona State
With three consecutive losses the bloom is off this Sun Devils team. Last week Arizona State played a very sloppy game. They had four fumbles (only one of which resulted in a turnover), two interceptions, seven penalties and three sacks allowed. Yet they had an opportunity for the spread cover when the best field goal kicker in the nation lined-up for a 44-yard field-goal attempt. Thomas Weber’s miss was only his second in 35 tries. This week they get four scores, and in our opinion that is too many. Arizona State has played USC tough, losing only two of its last ten meetings with the Trojans by more than 24 points. Senior quarterback Rudy Carpenter suf¬fered a sprained left ankle in the fourth quarter at California but he was able to play for the final 11 minutes. He remains questionable at press time. The story for ASU however should be its defense as they are allowing just 20.8 ppg and 325 ypg. Both are improvements over last season. So while USC is a potentially explosive opponent, we would expect Arizona State to hang tough and keep this one closer than the huge pointspread margin.
ERIN RYNNING
MINNESOTA AT ILLINOIS -11
O/U 57 Recommendation: Illinois
Under Ron Zook, Illinois has had one focus and one focus only: recruit as much talent and speed as possible. The results have paid off as the Illini field one of, if not the most, athletic team in the Big Ten. Minnesota’s Tim Brews¬ter has adopted the same game plan but in just his second year, the Gophers’ roster top to bottom just doesn’t compare at the moment. Illinois is off a solid confidence-building road win over Michigan, dominating the ground game 191-69. This result was impressive considering the strength of Michigan’s front defensive line. In addition, Illinois’ defense is still adjusting after losing many key players to graduation. Keep in mind also the quality of offense the Illini had faced heading into last week. The bottom line is their ability to run and throw the ball will be too much for the Gophers to contain. Minnesota boasts a 5-1 record, but they’re not ready to break through just yet. The Il¬lini will find holes in UM’s secondary with their many weapons and I have my doubts about the Gophers’ offense against formidable competition. We’ll ride the Illini as they give the home crowd in Champaign plenty to cheer about.
BRENT CROW
VANDERBILT AT MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5
O/U 37.5 Recommendation: Mississippi State
Give Vanderbilt credit for their tremendous 5-0 start, including three SEC wins over Auburn, South Carolina and Ole Miss. The Commodores have done a great job on defense and special teams and have made just enough plays on offense to get by. Avoiding turnovers is the most important thing Vandy has accomplished this season, something that in the past was always a major is¬sue against solid competition. This week the Commodores go to Starkville to face the 1-4 Bulldogs, who are coming off a bye week. Mississippi State will be focused and ready to play this week against the 13th-ranked Commo¬dores. State gave LSU a pretty good battle two weeks ago before losing 34-24. They got a little confidence on offense with Tyson Lee at QB and they should be able to use their size up front to their advantage against the speedy Vandy defense. This just shapes up to be a dangerous game for Vanderbilt after its biggest win in school history, highest ranking and plenty of never-before-seen National media coverage. Mississippi State’s may be 1-4 but the hun¬ger is still there and this week they’ll hand Vandy its first loss of the season.
JARED KLEIN
MINNESOTA +11 AT ILLINOIS
O/U 57 Recommendation: Minnesota
The Golden Gophers are one of the hidden gems in the marketplace this season. They’ve gone 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. Last week’s victory over Indiana was head coach Tim Brewster’s first Big Ten win and with the way this team is playing, you can tell they are brimming with confidence as they head into this week’s showdown on the road against Illinois. Minnesota is improved in all areas of the game since last season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Gophers would’ve held Indiana to just one first down and 24 total yards at halftime, if not for Marcus Thigpen’s 77-yard touchdown. They forced three turnovers and sacked Ben Chap¬pell and Kellen Lewis a combined four times. Illinois has not been stellar on de¬fense and teams have shown they can move the ball against this unit. Michigan, who ranks dead last in the Big Ten in nearly every offensive category, managed to put up 20 points. Now Illinois will have to contend with Minnesota’s spread offense and the Big Ten’s leading receiver Eric Decker, who has put up 696 yards this season. So while Illinois boasts a potent offense with Juice Williams at the helm, the Gophers can move the ball and keep this game within double-digits.
TIM TRUSHEL
VANDERBILT AT MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5
O/U 37.5 Recommendation: Mississippi State
During the Summer, in these same pages we called for Vanderbilt to be one of the worst teams in the nation. Without question we were wrong. They now stand at 5-0 for the first time since 1943 and have beaten Auburn, Mississippi and South Carolina. The ESPN Game Day crew made their first-ever visit to Vanderbilt Stadium, which was a sellout and actually had more Commodore fans than Auburn fans. Smartly we have been able to avoid letting our preseason opinion of Vanderbilt influence our regular season game management and we have steered clear of the Commodores since their week one win over Miami (OH). Yet this week the situation to play against Vanderbilt is just too rich. First Vanderbilt comes of its biggest, most important vic¬tory ever. Second, their victories over their SEC opposition have come in quite favor¬able situations and or venues. This game at Mississippi State will not. The Bulldogs are off a bye week and with a 1-4 start to the season, this team is hungry and will not look past Vanderbilt. Statistically neither of these two teams come away im¬pressive, but with the ability to run the ball behind a massive offensive line, we like State’s opportunity to control the line of scrimmage and win this one outright.
MARTY OTTO
WESTERN MICHIGAN AT BUFFALO -1
O/U 53 Recommendation: Buffalo
Buffalo enters this MAC tilt fresh off a bye week of preparation, rested and ready for a WMU team that tops the table in the Western Division at 3-0. But that isn’t the only situational factor that lines up in our favor as West¬ern Michigan may look ahead to next week’s opponent, their biggest rival, Central Michigan. This is not strictly a situational play, however. Western Michigan’s offense will get all of the press this week as Tim Hiller lights up the scoreboard but don’t sell the Bulls short. Drew Willy is in the midst of setting all kinds of school records, already approaching the 15 TD passes he had in his breakout campaign last year while featuring a 4-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. The bye week also afforded RB James Starks a much needed break to get healthy after suffering through a bit of a hip injury that slowed him early on. Although they have a losing record, this is a Bulls team that has fought through a rebuilding defense quite well, hanging around in games against Pitt and Missouri out of conference and taking CMU to the wire on the road. Now back at home I expect them to finally finish one off.
posted by phantom
Oct. 9 2008 2:41am -
0 likes
Logical Approach
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Colorado + 14 over KANSAS - For many years Colorado was the much stronger program but the situation has reversed over the past few seasons. But any gap that Kansas may have created over CU appears to have narrowed. The talent level on the teams is fairly even. Kansas has displayed the better offense this season and has been slightly better on defense but the series history suggests this line is way too high. CU had won 5 straight in the series until Kansas won the past two seasons, each by exactly 5 points. Colorado bounced back from their low point, a 2-10 season in 2006, to go 6-6 last season before losing to Alabama in the Independence Bowl. They've played a much tougher schedule this season although they are off of one sided away losses to Florida State and Texas. Meanwhile Kansas has not performed at last season's level, losing at South Florida and struggling last week to win at Iowa State. And Kansas is at Oklahoma next week. This is competitive throughout. Kansas wins but by just 31-24.
Other Featured College Selections
Notre Dame + 7 over NORTH CAROLINA - Both teams are clearly on the upswing and each has shown progress since the start of the season. Both teams are very similar statistically although Notre Dame has played the more demanding schedule. Notre Dame has the better talent - for now - as Carolina's recruiting is making great strides under coach Butch Davis. Carolina disappointed us last week when they routed UConn even though UConn dominated the stats, out first downing 'Carolina 23-13 and outyarding the Tar Heels 378-263. In fact, Carolina has been outgained on the season, often a poor indicator of pointspread success for favorites. Both defenses have excelled at creating turnovers, averaging nearly 3 takeaways per game. Notre Dame has b Bye next week while Carolina faces ACC nemesis Virginia next week in a double revenge spot including a bitter 2 point home loss last season. Notre Dame continues to build momentum and they take another step towards "restoring the glory" with an upset win here. Notre Dame wins 27-20.
NEVADA RENO - 19 over New Mexico State - Nevada plays their first home game in more than a month and enter this game with great momentum following road wins at Idaho by 35 points and at UNLV by 22. Those wins followed losses against a pair of unbeaten Big 12 powers Texas Tech and Missouri which clearly served to strengthen the Wolfpack for when they returned to face teams more at their level. Nevada has done well when given the chance to play bully on what has been a strong home field under coach Chris Ault. New Mexico State is all offense and little defense although their stats compare favorably to Nevada due to playing much weaker competition. Nevada has the # 4 rushing attack in the nation, gaining over 300 ypg, State is allowing over 220 rushing ypg so this matchup strongly favors Nevada. Eliminating last week's home rout of lowly I-AA/FCS Alcorn State, New Mexico State has allowed an average of 301 rushing ypg to their 3 I-A/FBS foes! Their defense will wear down and prevent the offense from trading points. Nevada wins handily 56-23.
ARKANSAS STATE - 12 ½ over Louisiana Monroe - We go to the "added" board to find a very appealing matchup of outstanding strength vs glaring weakness in the fundamentals. Both in the running game and in overall offense the stats are staggering as Arky State is averaging 6.1 yards per rush and 7.2 yards per play (while allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense). Monroe is allowing 6.8 yards per rush and 7.1 yards per play (while gaining just 5.1 yards per play on offense). Teams that average more than 2 yards per play than they allow are 70-8 straight up and 48-14-2 ATS this season, winning by an average of 26+ points per game. Teams that allow more than 2 yards per play than they gain are 3-19 ATS and 2-17 ATS, losing by an average of 21 points per game. Those astounding numbers more than offset some technical edges that lend support to Monroe. Arkansas State already has a road win over a BCS team, Texas A&M, and now steps back down to their own level against a very beatable foe. Arkansas State wins 37-17.
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: SEATTLE - 3 over Green Bay - At 1-3 Seattle is off to their worst start since 0-3 in 2002. The Pack has also started slowly at 2-3 following last week's home loss to pesky Atlanta in which they trailed most of the way. Seattle has battled injuries to key members of their offense all season but are starting to get healthy. This is their only home game in a 6 week stretch so a win here is critical to their hopes of defending their NFC West title. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers was game in playing through injury last week and is becoming more comfortable as Brett Favre's successor. The home team has won each of the last 5 games between the teams including a one sided win by the Packers last season. Reliance strictly on statistics would provide support to backers of the Pack. But this is the NFL and sometimes we must look beyond stats and place greater emphasis on the intangibles in a league in which the talent is so evenly spread. This is one such game. Seattle's pedigree makes them worth backing here. Seattle wins 28-20.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
NEW ORLEANS - 7 over Oakland - The Saints lost a to Minnesota on Monday night with a missed FG being the difference making this a game of great need for the Saints. They outgained Minny by over 100 yards in defeat and have the NFL's top passing offense. Oakland begins the Tom Cable era following the firing of Lane Kiffin a week ago. The Raiders are clearly in disarray and the coaching change should not have a major impact of a team still being coached, in reality, by owner Al Davis. Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell has yet to show he has the poise and composure to perform well in front of his fans from his college days at LSU. The Saints have the better team chemistry, more weapons and a more mature offense. They should put forth a great effort in what is their last home game until the Sunday before Thanksgiving. New Orleans wins 31-16.
New England + 6 over SAN DIEGO - New England showed some signs of life last week with their win at San Francisco while the Chargers continued to struggle with an uninspired effort in losing at Miami. Star RB LaDanian Tomlinson's productivity is down greatly as the absence of long time fullback Lorenzo Neal is being greatly felt. The Chargers are being outgained by 54 yards per game as their defense ranks # 28. The Pats' offense figures to continue to improve as QB Matt Casell becomes more comfortable running the offense and develops better timing with his receivers. This is a coaching mismatch and as such we can expect the Patriots'' Bill Belichick to outthink, outsmart and outcoach the Chargers' Norv Turner. The Chargers have struggled every bit as much as has New England and they've managed to come up short in close games. The class difference shows again here as the Pats pull the upset. New England wins 24-21.
CLEVELAND + 8 over N Y Giants (Monday) - Cleveland has had a disappointing though not surprising start to their season as they've played a very tough schedule that gets no easier over the next few weeks. The Giants have done very little wrong this season aside from a lackluster overtime win against Cincinnati before their Bye. The Giants have not played a very tough schedule, defeating a pair of winless teams (Cincinnati and St Louis) and another win over 1-3 Seattle. The Browns should be prepared for this prime time contest and they do have talent to give the Giants a game. The situation calls for a play on the home underdog with an outright upset not a shock. They do have momentum after winning at Cincinnati before their Bye. The Giants still have the better balanced offense and a more proven defense. They also have an edge at QB and in overall confidence. That's enough to call for the win, but it will be close. NY Giants win but by just 20-17.
Money Line Recommendations
College:
MEMPHIS
MISSISSIPPI ST
TEXAS A&M
Notre Dame
Pro:
Carolina
HOUSTON
ARIZONA
New England
Best of the NFL Totals
Cincinnati/N Y Jets OVER 45
Carolina/Tampa Bay UNDER 36 ½
Chicago/Atlanta UNDER 43 ½
Jacksonville/Denver OVER 48
Dallas/Arizona OVER 50
N Y Giants/Cleveland UNDER 43 ½
posted by phantom
Oct. 9 2008 2:41am -
0 likes
nelly
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5-c. mich
4-ore
3-ok st
2-nevada
2-toledo
1-ohio u
1-baylor
georgia-tenn under the total
5-dallas
4chicago
3-sf
2-tb
1-balt
system:sf
minnesota-detroit over the total
posted by phantom
Oct. 9 2008 2:42am -
0 likes
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
BAD BODY CLOCK SHOWS UP AGAIN IN THE NFL
A couple of weeks ago I talked in a national publication about how oddsmakers in Las Vegas and Reno are defenseless against “bad body clock†bets. They just can’t put the “right†number on a game like this because not enough people are betting the tendency!
That was right after California lost at Maryland as a big favorite in college football. I also referenced the big Seattle loss at Buffalo in the NFL that we had already seen.
This past Sunday, two more jump out as very obvious. Not only were they early kicks for West Coast teams…but they involved flying from one coast all the way over to the other.
* San Diego (-6) lost to Miami 17-10, and got drilled by a lot more than the final score indicates. The West Coast sleepy-heads were outgained 390-202, and outrushed 157-60. That’s not supposed to happen with LaDainian Tomlinson in uniform!
* Seattle (+7) lost to the NY Giants 44-6, and arguably lost by more than the final score makes it sound! New York won total yardage 523-187. It didn’t even look like an NFL game. Note that a lot of sharps took a bad hit here. The public bet New York up to 7.5 on game day, and many Wise Guys stepped in big on Seattle figuring that half a point off a key number was too good to pass up. Even the Wise Guys forget about the bad body clock sometimes.
(Oh, while we’re on that game, the sportsbooks took a big hit even though the Wise Guys lost because the public LOVED the Giants. That means they included them in a lot of parlay and teaser plays that typically cashed. It was a big Sunday for the squares thanks to the G-men).
Those are both double digit misses from the market spreads, with San Diego missing by 13 points and Seattle missing by a whopping 31 points. Note how both teams started slowly and just never got going.
FIRST QUARTER
New York 14, Seattle 3
Favored San Diego 3, Miami 3
HALFTIME SCORE
New York 27, Seattle 6
Miami 17, San Diego 3
The games were pretty much over in the first 30 minutes. In fact, the home teams had covered the full game spreads by two touchdowns or more at halftime!
So, the guys betting the “bad body clock†theory on quarters and halves also cashed their tickets. There just wasn’t much to sweat here. Unless you’re a bookmaker!
How can the oddsmakers put up the right number in a game like this?
If Seattle no-shows, like they did in Buffalo too, then you could probably argue that the “right†line is something like 17-21 points. Normally spreads like that are reserved for the very best against the very worst. Well, the Giants are the defending Super Bowl champs, and Seattle playing at 10 in the morning with jet lag might well be one of the worst.
Imagine that the sportsbooks DID put a line like 17-21 on the game! If the sharps came in heavy at +7.5, the action would obviously have been ridiculously one-sided on the Seahawks. Sportsbooks will accept a level of risk, but not THAT much risk.
What about the other game. Can you make Miami a favorite over San Diego? The Chargers were playing their second straight road game after a road divisional win. Situational handicappers might argue Miami WAS the true favorite in the game (I heard some guys make that very point last week). But, if the sportsbooks even drop it to -3 or pick-em for the Chargers, the public action is so heavy that the books aren’t remotely balanced. A perfect balance is rare. Sportsbooks don’t what THAT big a position on any one team, no matter what eventually happens in the game.
Because hardly anyone is betting the “bad body clock†angle aggressively, the market prices just don’t incorporate it right now.
Should you be looking at the system when the Oakland Raiders visit the New Orleans Saints this weekend? The kneejerk answer would be yes, of course! But, let’s remember that:
* Oakland busted the system with a near upset at Buffalo a few weeks ago.
* Oakland also won an early kick at Kansas City, though that was only a trip halfway across the country.
* Oakland had a bye last week (though Seattle was coming off a bye and it didn’t help them).
* New Orleans has a short preparation week after a Monday Night game.
It’s not the ideal go-against situation. Oakland has established success in this kind of spot, and could be helped by the bye week. It’s also a trip only halfway across the country. Personally, I think the approach is best when the West Coast teams have to go all the way to the East Coast (which we saw in both examples last Sunday). I do know some guys who also include the Mountain Time Zone teams (Arizona and Denver) when they start early…and guys who only focus on the clock and not the geography. To each his own. Pick an approach you’re comfortable with.
Just don’t ignore this factor! It’s a proven winner. And, it’s also something to look for in non-conference college basketball. The season starts in November, and the first 4-6 weeks is when opportunities like this pop up on Saturdays in hoops.
Let me leave you with a list of possibilities for the next few weeks:
SUNDAY
Oakland at New Orleans (not ideal)
OCTOBER 19TH
San Diego at Buffalo (horrible spot for the Chargers off New England)
San Francisco at the NY Giants
OCTOBER 26TH
Oakland at Baltimore (Raiders might as well move East!)
San Diego at New Orleans (no break for the Bolts)
Arizona at Carolina (if you play the Mountain teams too)
NOVEMBER 2ND
Arizona at St. Louis (early, but not much of a trip)
NOVEMBER 9TH
Seattle at Miami (3rd cross country trip of the year for Seattle)
NOVEMBER 16TH
Denver at Atlanta
Oakland at Miami (Raiders really racking up frequent flyer miles) I’m not saying all of the Eastern teams will win and cover these games. You have to handicap each game as it comes. But, they will have a potential edge that you should be aware of as you study the possibilities. I don’t think we’ve seen the last body clock blowout of 2008.
posted by phantom
Oct. 9 2008 2:43am