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Saturday, October 4, 2008 FREE NCAA Football Pick -

8:00 PM EDT

2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)

NORTH TEXAS +6½ over Florida International

The Mean Green will look to grab their first victory of the season when they host the Golden Panthers Saturday night. Florida International got their first “W” this past weekend, thanks to a shocking 35-16 victory at Toledo. Since joining the Sun Belt Conference, the Panthers have struggled mightily, posting a 4-17 ledger in league action. As for North Texas, they have lost 4 games to obviously superior competition, including a 77-20 setback at Rice this past weekend.

The Golden Panthers are mired in their usual atrocious offensive play, as the team is producing less than 200 total ypg, which has led to less than 14 ppg. They have been unable to get anything going on the ground, posting just 84 ypg. The passing attack has also had trouble as quarterback Paul McCall has completed just 47.5 percent of his throws and has just one TD against five interceptions. The Panthers only collected 239 total yards and were outgained by more than 60 yards this past weekend against Toledo, but were able to take advantage of four Toledo turnovers.

On top of the struggles offensively, the defense for Florida International has been beaten and battered by opponents, allowing 380 total ypg, including 162 ypg via the run.

Much like their counterpart, the Mean Green have struggled offensively; however, they have been able to move the ball more, averaging 317 total ypg, which has led to a 14 ppg. Giovanni Vizza has taken the majority of the snaps under center and certainly has the talent to do some damage in Sun Belt play. He has managed four scores against three interceptions during the rugged non-conference play, and the team did rack up 412 total yards against Rice last week, including 155 yards on the ground, averaging a healthy 5.2 ypc.

North Texas has been horrible defensively against the high-powered attacks they’ve had to face in Kansas State, Tulsa, LSU, and Rics. The team surrendered 502 total yards in the embarrassing, 77-20 loss to Rice a week ago. The main problem came against the pass, as North Texas was torched for 328 yards and six touchdowns; however, they should fare much better against the Panthers pop-gun offense.

It will be the Mean Green that plays with more desperation here, as we look to play AGAINST a team off a major upset victory, such as FIU is.

Not only did this team have to come through with a super-human effort, odds are the early part of the week was spent celebrating. If the fans and news media are touting a big win and reliving the upset, it’s tough to get these young kids off that cloud and focus on the next opponent in a short week’s time. Meanwhile, the win gave their upcoming opponent bigger incentive and warning.

The Golden Panthers players and coaches didn't realize how the Toledo win would resonate on campus until they returned to campus in the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning. A crowd of about 200 students waited to greet the team when the buses pulled up to campus following the charter flight back to Miami.

Now, the team will have a tough time focusing for this game and will experience the discomfort of being a sizeable road favorite. FIU has NEVER before in their short history been installed as even a small road favorite. In fact, they are 0-3 SU (-21 ppg) & 0-3 ATS (-25.2 ppg) as a favorite overall vs. all teams besides nearby rival Florida Atlantic, including 0-1 SU & ATS vs. North Texas.

This also gives us the opportunity to play AGAINST a weak team in the unfamiliar role of favorite. Sometimes a team that is used to losing will do something good enough to find themselves in the uncomfortable role of the favorite. This is tough for them to handle. The coach may not have had any difficulty getting them up for a game as an underdog, but when the team takes on the pressure of being expected to win, it can be too much for them.

The Panthers have also not fared well when going up against a team desperate for a victory as they are 0-6 SU (-19.5 ppg) & 0-6 ATS (-19.1 ppg) vs. a sub-.500% opponent off 2 SU losses and not an underdog of more than 16 points.

We also have one of our better NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS active here revealing that after pulling off a major upset as an underdog of at least 2 TDs, road favorites of less than 3 TDs have been absolutely flat, overlooking opponents off a loss. It states:

Play AGAINST a road favorite of 1½-20½ points off a SU win as an underdog of 14+ points in its last game and not a shutout SU win before that vs. an opponent off a SU loss.

This situation has come up 18 times since 1980 and amazingly the favorite has only won 3 of the games outright, while losing 15 SU! Most importantly for our purposes, these teams are a perfectly dreadful 0-18 ATS, failing to cover by nearly 13 ppg on average.

Last year was a classic example with Utah coming off their huge upset over UCLA only to follow it up with a shocking 27-0 LOSS at UNLV, of all places, in what turned out to be a spread loss of 34½ points! Next in line as the PLAY AGAINST team is Florida International.

Meanwhile, as bad as North Texas has been recently, we do have some numbers in their favor, as they are 7-0 ATS (+13.1 ppg) as a home underdog of more than 4 points with less than 13 days rest off 2 road games, and 12-0 ATS (+12) vs. a sub-.350% opponent off a SU win.

Another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours shows that smaller home underdogs looking to avenge a road favorite loss of more than a TD have been tremendously strong. It says:

From Game 3 on, play ON a conference underdog of 2-10½ points with less than 13 days rest, seeking revenge for a road favorite SU loss of 8+ points in the previous matchup last season and not off 5 ATS losses vs. an opponent not off 2 conference ATS wins of more than 1 point in each game.

Just since 1999, these teams are a phenomenal 20-0 ATS, covering the spread by better than 11 ppg on average.

For those overly concerned about the bushel of points that North Texas surrendered last week, we note that Sun Belt Conference home underdogs off a non-conference game allowing 46+ points are 10-0 ATS since 2002, covering the spread by nearly a dozen ppg on average, with North Texas accounting for 2 of those wins.

Our database research also shows that home dogs and very small favorites have roared back after an embarrassing loss and catching an opponent off a surprising victory. Specifically, this NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM advises:

Play ON a home team (not an underdog of 19+ points or underdog of more than 1 point) off a SU loss of 11+ points allowing 56+ points vs. an opponent off an underdog/pick ‘em SU win.

Such teams have been perfect since at least 1980, going 13-0 ATS, while crushing the spread by nearly 16 ppg on average.

The Golden Panthers go from pursuer to prey here, as the Green finally get down and get “Mean” with an “upset” win.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NORTH TEXAS 31 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 23

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