power sweep
4* Michigan 30-20
3* Florida St. 21-17
3*Tulane 38-10
2*Notre Dame 34-17
2*Duke + 20-24
2*Western Mich. 30-16
Underdog Toledo +7 34-31
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
TOLEDO (+7) over Ball St
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-124. Over the
last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT UPSET
WINNERS to the incredible record including last week with Michigan over
Wisconsin! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:
BSU won at UT in ‘06 snapping a 5 game losing streak in the Glass Bowl. The HT is 11-3-1 SU winning
the L/11 by 20 ppg. LY at Muncie, Toledo had a 313-206 yd edge at the half in a 20-20 gm but thanks in
part to losing their QB to inj, did not score in the 2H and lost 41-20. BSU is 14-3 ATS on the road while
UT is 41-8 SU at home but has suffered 2 straight losses for the first time S/’85. UT, after almost upsetting
#25 Fresno St, was favored (-20) over FIU and led 13-0 but gave up 4 TO’s and despite 20-12 FD and
302-239 yd edges lost 35-16 as they all’d 4 TD drives that started in their own territory. UT played without
leading rusher Collins (360, 8.2, CS). UT QB Opelt is avg 182 ypg (57%) with a 7-2 ratio. BSU QB Davis
is avg 284 ypg (71%) with an 11-3 ratio. RB Lewis leads the tm with 645 yds (5.
. BSU is 5-0 SU and
3-1 ATS incl 2-0 SU in MAC play. The Cardinals had 26-18 FD and 423-353 yd edges winning 41-20 over
Kent but failed to cover as a 22 pt HF. UT is 1-0 SU & ATS in MAC play so the winner here will have a
step up in the MAC West race. BSU has the off (#28-57) and def (#83-94) edges but UT has played the
much tougher schedule (#42-105). On Sept 20th, Toledo (+7) delivered an Underdog Play Winner and
an almost outright upset of Fresno St (54-55) in this very spot. FORECAST: TOLEDO 34 Ball St 31
4* MICHIGAN over Illinois - LY with the game tied mid-4Q, IL fmbl’d a punt to set up a UM TD as
they lost 27-17 (+1). UM is 39-4-2 SU vs IL. IL is 5-2 as an AD (1-1 TY) but on its 2nd straight road trip
and this is Zook’s 1st trip to the Big House. Mich won as an Underdog POW on these pages and a 4H
LPS in the biggest UM comeback in Michigan Stadium history as they trailed Wisky 19-0 at the half.
Five UM 1H TO’s set up the Badgers but the Wolves, who had just 21 1H yds, exploded in the 2H for
247 yds & 27 pts (1 IR TD). Threet had a season high 58 yd run vs the Badgers but UM is #109 in the
NCAA in pass eff & #110 in ttl off. Wolves D allows 89 rush ypg (2.3) with 14 sks. IL lost at PSU 38-24
as they went for it on 4th & 2 at their own 48 early 3Q but were SOD and all’d 94 yd KR TD. QB Williams
avg 226 ypg (59%) with a 9-6 ratio and 283 rush yds. RB Dufrene (396, 6.7) suffered a shoulder inj LW
(CS). Illini allow 183 rush ypg (4.. Wolves shutdown Williams & Co and take adv of a porous Illini D.
FORECAST: MICHIGAN 30 Illinois 20
3* Florida St over MIAMI, FL - This used to be one of the top rivalries but both have gone thru a
downturn recently (LY was 1st meeting S/’77 that neither ranked). This game is always close with the
L/7 decided by 4.4 ppg and none by more than 8. FSU was in control on LY’s game but let it slip away
(see PH) as FSU led 29-24 & UM scored 2 TD’s in :11 w/1:05 left. Miami is 7-2 SU in the series. FSU
won their last trip here in ‘06 13-10 (+3’) in a D struggle (176-134 yd edge, two tms 17 comb FD’s).
Shannon is 0-5 ATS in ACC HG’s with 4 upset losses as they were upset LW 28-24 (-8) vs NC. QB Marve
is avg 139 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio. FSU is 5-9 as an AF. LW the Noles defeated Colorado 39-21 in
Bowden’s 500th game as a HC giving us our Sept GOM 5H Winner. FSU has a solid off and ST’s edge
(off #30-64, ST #37-73) but these 2 matchup pretty evenly on D (FSU #14-17). FSU QB Ponder is avg
137 ypg (51%) with a 6-4 ratio. RB Smith has rushed for 302 yds (5.7). FSU receives their final player
back from susp and you saw what they could do with their full compliment of players. The speedy D will
frustrate rFr QB Marve. FORECAST: Florida St 21 MIAMI, FL 17
3* TULANE over Army - This will be the first game at the outdoor Gormley Stadium S/‘04 and is HC.
Tulane is 5-1-1 SU at home vs Army (avg score 30-16) and the last trip here we used a 3H LPS on
Tulane (-5’) and they won easier than the 42-28 final with a 35-16 FD edge. LY was a tough loss for TU
as they led by 10 w/2:00 left but Army tied it on a Hail Mary and won in OT. TU had a 401-240 yd edge
and the departed RB Forte rushed for 202. That was Army’s last win as they have dropped 10 str. Army
is off their best off perf of the yr as their new option off finally started clicking. QB Bowden, in his first
start, led with 128 yds (3.. They were only outgained 290-284 and had a 21-14 FD edge. The Knights
had just 1 TO, but A&M returned that fmbl 58 yds for a TD and held on to win 21-17, but Army easily
got their 1st cover of the yr (+28). Tulane does have 2 extra days to prep, which is always a plus, and is
all’g just 69 ypg rush (2.. They led SMU 31-7 at the half but had to hang on to win 34-27 as we won
a Thur Night Marquee Play on SMU (+18). Tulane has played the tougher schedule (#59-111), has the
better off (#90-120) and D (#52-102) and catches Army in 2nd of B2B AG’s in a situation where they
had a disappointing finish in a competitive gm vs A&M. FORECAST: TULANE 38 Army 10
OTHER SELECTIONS
2H*NOTRE DAME over Stanford - This marks the12th straight year these 2 have met with ND winning
the L/6 SU (last loss hosting Stanford was in ‘92) while going 4-2 ATS. Irish QB Clausen (275 pass yds,
3 TD) and RB Allen (134 rush yds) recorded career highs allowing ND to pull away in the 2H vs Pur
while delivering a 3H LPS Winner. The Irish have gone 25-12-1 SU & 23-15 ATS all-time vs the P10
but Weis has struggled as a HF going just 3-8 ATS. These schools combined for 6 TO’s, 5 missed FG’s,
4 plays overturned by replay & 9 PF’s LY with ND actually the underdog on the road in their 21-14 win
(+4’).The Cardinal are in their 4th RG in 5 weeks and now travel to the Midwest in a P10 sandwich after
gaining a ssn best 466 yds vs a weak Husky defense as bkup RB Kimble marched for a career-high
157 yds replacing an inj’d RB Gerhart (concussion-CS) midway through the 1Q. While the dog in this
series has gone 6-3 ATS in recent years, the resurgent Irish should be too much for the road weary
Cardinal in this one. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 34 Stanford 17
2* Duke (+) over GEORGIA TECH - The winner in this series has won by DD 19 of 22 gms (86%). GT
is 12-1 SU in the series, has won 6 straight in Atl, is off a bye and only has a IAA foe on deck. Duke DC
MacIntyre played football for GT for 2 years. Duke got some excellent prep work for this as they faced
Johnson’s old team Navy (held Midshipmen to a ssn low 13 FD’s & 207 rush yds) on Sept 13 and has
a bye next week. Since Duke upset GT in ‘03 the Wreck has won the L/4 by 22 ppg. Johnson is 4-9 as
a HF and Cutcliffe is 4-2 as an AD but this is their road opener. GT is avg 307 rush pg (#5 NCAA). GT
is holding opp’s to just over 14 ppg and has been especially aggressive creating TO’s (11). QB Nesbitt
suffered a hamstring 2 wks ago but Johnson said he could be back vs Duke. On the season Nesbitt
is avg 140 ypg ttl off. RB Dwyer has 389 rush yds (8.1). GT has the edge on both sides of the ball (off
#31-77, def #40-46). Duke is 1 holding pen away from being unbeaten. They snapped a 25 gm ACC
losing streak with their 31-3 win over UVA LW & are off to their best start S/’94. QB Lewis is #2 in the
ACC avg 219 ypg (61%) with a 7-2 ratio. WR Riley has 22 rec (12.2). Duke is a much improved team
allowing 117 less ypg than LY. Duke showed LW that they’re learning how to win under SEC Coach
Cutcliffe and takes the next step. FORECAST: Duke 20 (+) GEORGIA TECH 24
2* W MICHIGAN over Ohio - The Bobcats are 2-9 SU visiting Kalamazoo with wins in ‘96 & ‘98. Last
met in ‘06 and Ohio, despite just 10 FD, still won at home 27-20 (+4). This is HC for WM and their only
IA HG in a 2 month span so the fans should be hungry. Ohio is 1-4 SU (only win vs IAA tm) with their
avg loss by 6 ppg but is 4-1 ATS. WM is 4-1 SU but 1-3 ATS. WM was avg over 36 ppg but was held to
just 7 pts vs Temple. Ohio is 0-1 SU in MAC play and WM is 2-0 SU in MAC play (0-2 ATS) winning by
a comb 7 pts. Despite having just 35 yds vs TU LW, WM RB West leads w/467 (5. which is more than
twice the rest of the tm combined. WM QB Hiller avg 271 ypg (70%) with a 15-3 ratio. Ohio QB Jackson
in his 3 starts is avg 293 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio. The Bobcats top rusher is Harden with 274 (5.3).
The Broncos have a slight def edge (#65-71) and a bigger off edge (#67-101). WM came up flat vs the
Owls without their starting QB but now stay focused at home. Nothing wrong with their D as they’ve
held their L/2 opp to 23 ttl FD’s and 474 combined yds. FORECAST: W MICHIGAN 30 Ohio 16
Thursday, October 2nd -
Pittsburgh at USF - LY USF rallied from a 14-7 deficit. They outscored Pitt 38-23 in
the 2H & got IR TD’s by Allen & Williams & an int by Moffit down to the 1. Each of the 5 gms has been decided
by 9 pts or more. Pitt is 4-1 ATS as an AD while USF is 6-1 at home in BE play (3-0 conf opener). The key to
this game will be D with USF’s #16 D facing our #32 D. Both teams are off solid wins and have a bye on deck.
LY Pitt went into Morgantown and upset #2 WV so they will be confident vs the #10 tm in the nation.
Memphis at UAB - LY UM won the “Battle of the Bones†to mark the 1st time the 100 lb bronze rack of ribs
headed to Memphis. Before LY’s loss, UAB had reeled off 7 straight wins SU and ATS vs UM but Mem had a
563-338 yd edge in the win. UAB is 4-9 SU and ATS in CUSA HG’s. Memphis is 1-5 as an AF in 5 yrs. UAB is
8-4-1 as a HD. Memphis is off a win over Ark St, in which they outgained ASU 453-352. The Tigers are 19-29
off a SU win under HC West. UAB is coming off a 26-13 loss to S Car, where they hung around, but were
outgained 353-207. UAB is 0-2 off a SU loss TY, but the home tm has covered 3 out of 4 in this series.
Oregon St at UTAH - LY UT travelled to Corvallis in the opener but lost QB Johnson and RB Asiata
in the 1H (inj). It was 7-7 at half but OSU took adv in the 2H and won 24-7. UT is 5-8 (2-1 TY) ATS vs
non-conf under Whittingham. OSU is off its huge win vs USC (1st time in 41 yrs OSU knocked off a #1
tm) outgaining them 343-313 and are now loaded with confidence. UT may have been caught looking
ahead LW in their 37-21 win over IAA Weber St. After WSU tied it 7-7, UT rattled off 30 straight pts
& finished with a 450-359 yd edge (WSU garbage yds). These two match up pretty evenly on off (UT
#24-27) and D (OSU #23-26) but UT has a huge ST’s edge (#11-111).
Friday, October 3rd - Cincinnati at MARSHALL - These schools are just 153 miles apart but have only
met 3 times S/‘46, two of those in bowls (‘00 & ‘04). Marshall is 6-1-1 as a HD. LY the Herd appeared
to have the cover trailing 26-14 in the 4Q (+24) but Cincy got 2 late TD’s. LW Cincy QB Pike broke his
non-throwing arm in their 17-15 win over Akron. Mar is off a poor off showing in their 27-3 loss to WV.
Their top 3 threats (Marshall, Passmore & Slate) were all limited in the loss. Cincy is 5-10 as an AF but
Kelly is 7-2 ATS in non-conf play. This is the Bearcats’ 1st trip to Huntington.
Byu at UTAH ST - BYU is 18-1 SU S/’83 vs the Aggies with the only loss (58-56) here in ‘93. The Cougars
have won 9 of the L/11 SU in Logan, but in their L/2 trips here, they were 17 pt AF & barely escaped
winning 34-31 in 2OT (‘99) & 35-34 (‘02). USU is 2-8 ATS as a HD while BYU is 7-4 ATS as an AF under
HC Mendenhall. USU’s dual-threat QB Borel (123 ypg, 55%, 5-2 ratio, 217 rush) helped spark the Aggies
to their first win of the yr, but USU’s D will be hard-pressed to slow down BYU’s high-octane off (481 ypg)
led by Heisman hopeful QB Hall who is avg 321 ypg (74%) with a 15-2 ratio. The Cougars have been stellar
outscoring their L/2 foes 103-0 to post B2B shutouts (first time S/’85) & BYU has yet to give up a sack. The
Cougars own the nation’s longest current win streak (14). Both tms are off byes & have conf gms on deck.
Saturday Games -
Boston College 21 NC STATE 17 - The Eagles defeated their former HC & the
Wolfpack 37-17 in the 1st meeting since O’Brien left for Raleigh but did benefit from +6 in TO’s (NCSt
407-373 yd edge). BC leads the series 3-2 but the HT is 3-0 in ACC play & the Eagles are 0-6 as an AF.
NCSt got a 34 yd TD pass on the final play to upset O’Brien’s BC team here in ‘06. This is the first true
road game for BC QB Crane and on the season he is avg 115 ypg (52%) with a 2-5 ratio. True Fr RB
Harris (PS#159) has 276 rush yd (7.7). BC’s D is #2 in the NCAA only allowing 6.5 ppg & are only all’g
253.5 ttl ypg while NCSt is all’g 401 ypg & 30 ppg (our ranking off BC #85-92, def #20-85). NCSt has
been plagued with inj’s and were w/o probably their top offensive & defensive players, QB Wilson and
LB Irving (CS). Wilson’s fill-in QB Beck avg 118 ypg (45%) with a 2-6 ratio. RB Brown has 320 rush yds
(4.4). Both tms have a bye next week. This is a an emotional game for O’Brien who left a BC team that
went to the ACC Title game that year for a struggling Wolfpack squad.
WEST VIRGINIA 31 Rutgers 14 - WV has won 13 in a row SU in the series. LY on a rain soaked field
RU took the field in all black uniforms for the 1st time ever. We used a 4H LPS on WV and a 3H Key in
PS. RU QB Mike Teel was playing with a bruised throwing hand but his rec’s dropped 7 passes. WV won
31-3 (-6’) on the road. We won with our 5H College Game of the Year on WV (-13’) 37-13 in 1987. LW
WV rushed for over 300 yds for the 2nd straight week in their 27-3 win over Marshall. They squandered
many chances to pile on pts and also took a knee at the MU5 to end the game. Rutgers got their 1st win
of the year vs Morgan St 38-0. An offense that has struggled (40 pts 1st 3)only put up 297 yds vs IAA
opponent. WV has the off edge (#29-86), def (#29-50) and home edge. The visitor is 6-0 ATS and WV is
1-5 as a Big East HF but Rut is 11-19 as a BE AD. WV looks to be back on track while Schiano tries to
keep his team from imploding as they might be on their way to a losing ssn.
Penn St 34 PURDUE 20 - PSt is 1-7 ATS (lost L/5) on the conf road but did win their last trip here (12-0,
-3’ in ‘06) in the lone shutout of Tiller’s career. LY PSt had a season high 29 FD’s vs Purdue but failed to
cover at home (see PH). Purdue is 10-1 SU in their Big Ten opener and has only been a Big Ten HD 9
times in 11 yrs (5-4 ATS). We went against Purdue LW winning a 3H LPS in a 38-21 loss at Notre Dame
in which the short handed Boilers D (minus starting 2 LB’s) couldn’t stop the Irish in the 3Q in which
they totalled 21 pts & 204 yds. The passing game hasn’t clicked as Painter is just #80 in the NCAA in
pass eff avg 278 ypg (57%) with a 5-4 ratio. PSt is off a 38-24 win over Illinois in which Williams (PS#1)
finally lived up to his HS hype with 241 all-purp yds & 3 TD’s including a 94 yd KR TD. QB Clark leads
the conf in pass eff avg 179 ypg (63%) with a 9-1 ratio. PSt’s D got a boost with the return of susp’d DL
Evans (12.5 sk in ‘07) & Koroma. The Lions have all of the edges (#8-52 off, #12-82 D & #5-33 ST’s) and
look like the top cats in the league right now.
MICHIGAN ST 24 Iowa 20 - LY Iowa QB Christensen threw for just 23 yds in reg but the Hawks won 34-27
in 2 OT’s (see PH) with Mich St blowing a 17-3 (252-71 yd edge) halftime lead. The home team has won 8 in
a row SU in the series. MSU is just 5-10 as a conf HF. MSU provided us with another 4H LPS Winner with a
42-29 win over Indiana LW. QB Hoyer took advantage of a banged up Hoosier secondary with 261 yds & 2
TD to compliment Ringer’s latest 40+ carry game (#2 NCAA with 897 yds). MSU’s D allows 123 rush ypg (4.4)
and now takes on the league’s 2nd leading rusher in 235 lb Greene (665, 6.7). Greene had his 5th straight
100 yd gm vs NW despite missing the final 12:00 due to a concussion. Iowa blew a 17-3 2Q lead thanks to 5
TO’s and ended the game throwing 4 straight incompletions at the NW 8. Iowa is allowing 100 rush ypg (3.1).
The Spartans have played a tougher sked (#45-83) as Hawks QB Stanzi will get his 1st road start.
MINNESOTA 38 Indiana 24 - The home team is 9-1 SU. Minny has won the L/2 in the dome by a combined
118-33 including 63-26 (-5’) in ‘06. Hoosiers last win here was in ‘93. LY Minny lost by 20 on the road but
was only outgained 463-402. The 2 have avg 69 ppg the L/7. IU is 3-11 ATS off a SU conf loss. Hoosiers’
QB Lewis has accounted for 353 ypg vs the Gophers in 2 career starts but was banged up (leg) in a 42-39
loss to Mich St. In that game IU had a 97 yd TD pass called back on a holding penalty in the EZ which
resulted in a safety. IU’s beaten up secondary (minus 3 starters) lost 2 more DB’s LW. Minny lost to 34-21 in
Columbus as the Gophers scored 2 4Q TD’s vs OSU’s reserves and allowed 279 rush yds including 97 to
OSU’s QB Pryor. QB Weber avg 231 ypg (70%) with an 8-2 ratio. WR Decker is the Big Ten’s #1 rec with 37
(13.7). This is Brew’s 1st as a B10 AF (0-1 AF LY) but the improved Gophers have edges all around (#47-54
off, #67-88 D, #38-78 ST & #48-108 sked) and need this one to get to the postseason.
Maryland 31 VIRGINIA 14 - LY Virginia needed a TD with :16 to pull out the 18-17 win (see PH). Maryland
is 4-12 SU vs the Cavs (1-7 SU here). The last time here the Terps rallied from a 20-0 HT deficit to beat the
Cavs 28-26 (-3). Groh is an outstanding 13-4 as a HD and Friedgen is 0-3 as an AF. MD upset then #20
Clemson LW which was helped by a 76 yd reverse by Heyward-Bey that set up the 1st of two 2H TDs in a
20-17 win (+11). On the year, Heyward-Bey has 12 rec (20.. QB Turner is avg 152 ypg (58%) with a 6-5
ratio. The Terps have a solid edge on both sides of the ball (off #46-109, def #60-72). UVA lost LW to Duke
ending their 25 ACC losing streak. UVA is really struggling this year and has been outscored 144-20. They
lost their starting QB Sewell prior to the year because of acads, QB Lalich was kicked off the team a few
week ago (QB Verica avg 117 ypg, 57%, 0-5 ratio). The Cavs have yet to establish a running game (only
avg 66 ypg - #117 NCAA) and now come home to a very unhappy crowd.
NORTH CAROLINA 30 Connecticut 16 - These 2 last met in ‘90 a 48-21 NC win over then IAA Conn.
The Huskies are 4-22-2 SU (8-9 ATS) vs current teams from the ACC including their 45-10 win over VA
in Wk 3. UC is just 5-11 as an AD and in the bowl (in NC) they lost to WF 24-10. NC is just 3-12 as a HF
and NC is 6-14 ATS at home vs non-conf. NC rallied from a 14 pt deficit to beat Miami, Fl 28-24 LW. QB
Sexton playing in place of inj’d Yates, threw for 242 yds (58%) and 3 TD’s. UNC Tate broke the NCAA’s
comb KR yd record and he’ll now face team all’g 24.1 on KR. Conn also is off an impressive win on the
road vs UL 26-21. The Huskies leaned on the NCAA’s leading rusher Brown who rushed for 190 (5.
after starting QB Lorenzen broke his foot. Notre Dame transfer Zach Frazer (PS#7) threw for 90 yds & a
TD and will make his 1st career start here. We’ll ride our #2 Most Improved Team over a Conn team that
has yet to prove themselves vs a strong opponent.
MISSISSIPPI 20 South Carolina 17 - Ole Miss has won 5 in a row SU vs SC and in their last meeting, upset
#25 ranked SC 31-28 (+16’) in Columbia in ‘04. UM DC Nix faces his former team (DC at SC ‘05-‘07). UM is
now 20-5 ATS vs ranked tms after their huge upset of #4 Florida LW and nearly upset then #20 WF earlier TY.
UM took adv of 3 UF TO as they pulled out a 1 pt win despite being outgained 443-325 and outFD’d 24-10. UM
outgained Vandy 385-202 but QB Snead threw 4 int and WR McCluster fmbl’d going into the EZ & UM lost by 6.
SC lost to Vandy by 7 despite a 325-225 yd edge as Vandy had a 3-1 TO edge in that gm. UM’s strength on D
is their DL which held Tebow to 7 net yds rush with 3 sks and harassed him all day. SC’s major weakness has
been the inconsistent OL which has all’d 17 sks (last in SEC). Spurrier’s QB carousel may stop on rFr Garcia
TW, who came in on the 2nd series vs UAB and hit 13-20 for 131 with a 1-1 ratio and also rushed for 86 yds &
a TD. QB Smelley (avg 169 pass ypg, 62%, with 6-6 ratio) has started the L/4 gms. UM QB Snead has avg 206
ypg (53%) with an 8-8 ratio but did throw 2 TD and ran for a TD vs FL. Spurrier is 10-4-1 ATS away but Miss is
12-5 as a HD incl 6-1 ATS as an SEC HD. SC is on a 2-7-2 ATS run. Both tms are better than their records and
both could legitimately be undefeated coming into this gm which means that both are “play on†teams.
Texas Tech 38 KANSAS ST 27 - In their last meeting (‘05), KSU all’d 669 pass yds (65%) on 47 of 72 passes
(all school records). TT is off a bye and is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS vs KSU with the avg win by 23 ppg under Leach.
QB Harrell leads a very potent off (573 ypg & 46 ppg) avg 393 ypg (65%) with a 12-3 ratio. WR Crabtree is
showing no soph slump with 29 rec (15. & 6 TD. KSU held off ULL LW as they were outgained (all’d 509
yds), but did lead 42-23 before garbage time. QB Freeman became KSU’s career yardage leader and is
avg 276 ypg (67%) with an 11-2 ratio. KSU is ranked #39 in our pass eff def all’g 164 ypg (56%) with a 5-2
ratio but the L/2 gms have been ripped for 638 rush yds (6.0). TT is 1-4 ATS on the B12 road & KSU is 9-3
ATS hosting conf foes. Both schools have played rather weak skeds, but TT has a solid D edge (#30-69)
all’g just 100 rush ypg (3.2) & is tied for #1 in the NCAA w/10 int. KSU did take out a #7 Texas tm LY in their
B12 opener but doesn’t have the firepower to trade scores with the Raiders.
Kansas 28 IOWA ST 21 - Both tms are off a bye and it will also double as their B12 opener. The HT is 13-
3-1 ATS but KU was -2 in their last trip here (‘06) and won easily 41-10. KU is on a 17-3 ATS run and under
Mangino is 5-1 as an AF. QB Reesing is avg 351 ypg (70%) with an 11-2 ratio. ISU is on a 6-2 ATS run and
Chizik is 4-1 ATS as a HD. Cyclones run a 2-QB system with Bates (303 ttl yds, #1 rusher) & Arnaud (161
ypg, 65%, 4-2 ratio), who did see most of the action in the 2H/OT of the UNLV gm. Jayhawks are avg 473
ypg, but have struggled running the ball (119 ypg, 3.4). Cyclones are ranked #61 in our pass eff def all’g
176 ypg (58%) with a 6-7 ratio, but have had trouble stopping the run (188 ypg, 5.2). KU has off (#25-78) &
def (#33-73) edges but has a tougher time than expected putting the scrappy Cyclones away.
Auburn 23 VANDERBILT 9 - LY AU led 35-0 before VU scored a TD w/4:57 left 4Q & AU had a 404-221
yd edge. Aub has won the last 3 by an avg of 37-7 and Aub won their last trip here 45-7 in ‘03. Vandy is 9-4
ATS vs SEC West and is off a bye. VU ranks last in the SEC in total off and def and has been outgained in
3 of their 4 gms but is undefeated thanks to a +9 TO margin (#1 NCAA). Vandy is 5-9 as a HD but defeated
SC (+9’) despite being outgained 325-225. VU QB Nickson is avg just 73 ypg pass (58%) with a 3-0 ratio
but also has 270 net rush yds (4.. Nickson (shldr inj) missed the 2H vs Ole Miss but is expected to play
vs Aub. VU’s top rusher is Hawkins (314, 4.7) & Vandy is #3 in the SEC in rushing (202 ypg, 4.6). Aub QB
Todd (163 ypg, 58%, 3-4 ratio) faces VU’s #2 pass eff D (54% all’d, 4-10 ratio). Aub RB Tate (393, 4.6) tms
with Lester (174, 4.1). Aub’s #6 D held Tenn to 191 total yds & 9 FD’s LW in their 14-12 win & produced the
gm winning pts on a FR in the EZ and now faces Vandy’s #89 off. Generally Vandy’s SEC HG’s feature more
fans of their opp’s than Vandy fans, but perhaps their 1st ranking S/’84 will bring out the Black & Gold for this
sold out ESPN night gm (1st time “Game Day†in Nashville). Auburn is off two huge gms vs LSU and Tenn
but is 8-5 as an SEC AF, and won’t overlook this ranked Vandy squad even with West rival Ark on deck.
Unlv 33 COLORADO ST 23 - CSU is 11-1 SU (5-8 ATS) in the series. LY they played in wind gusts up to 50
mph and UNLV lost 48-23 despite a 559-495 yd edge. CSU has won the L/2 here by 28 ppg. UNLV has not
been a conf AF S/’03 although they have played 2 BCS foes TY & covered both (incl ASU upset). LW Cal scored
on a blk’d P & IR to go up 14-0 early in their rout of CSU, 42-7. QB Farris was held to 96 pass yd but CSU
actually outgained Cal 351-348. On the yr Farris avg 220 ypg (66%) with a 4-5 ratio. The top rusher, Johnson,
has 300 yds (4.5) and WR Greer has 25 rec (14.4). Neither CSU or UNLV is blowing tms out as CSU’s MOV
in their 2 wins is by 6 pts & UNLV’s is 16 pts (5.3). UNLV jumped out to a 17-0 lead but once again all’d the
opp to battle back and this time Nev didn’t give LV the chance for OT. LV was outgained 620-381 in their 49-27
loss. QB Clayton threw his 1st int of the yr in the 4Q and is avg 221 ypg (59%) with a 12-1 ratio. Summers was
ineffective LW (20 yds) and now has 406 (4.3). The turning point in LV’s ssn has been the Nev gm as they are
a comb 1-14 SU after playing Nev the L/2Y. Sanford is well aware of that trend & will change it here.
MIAMI, OH 24 Temple 10 - In their only 2 meetings (‘05 & LY), MU has combined to outFD TU 46-22 &
outgain them 876-493 but the series is tied 1-1. Montgomery is 3-0-1 off a bye. MU was upset by TU on the
road LY 24-17 (+6). While MU had a 22-11 FD edge, most of their damage came during garbage time as
they trailed 24-7. TU is just 2-27 SU on the road and this is their first trip to Oxford. Temple is on their 4th
RG in 6 wks. TU lost starting QB DiMichele vs Penn St and he was also the top rusher at the time. RFr QB
Chester Stewart struggled in his first start vs WM throwing for just 60 yds (29 yds rush). TU was outgained
288-196 and outFD’d 18-10 but the D stepped up and held WM to just 7 pts. MU had several players banged
up going into the bye and should be healthier here. QB Raudabaugh is avg 244 ypg (59%) with a 4-5 ratio,
while RB Merriweather leads the tm with 260 yds (3.5). Both offenses have struggled (MU #104-116). TU
has played the tougher schedule (#32-92) but still has the stronger D (#57-96). This is MU’s MAC opener,
while TU is 0-2 SU in MAC gms but 2-0 ATS losing by a comb 6 pts.
Missouri 42 NEBRASKA 35 - We had a 4H LPS Winner on MO as Pinkel after LY’s 41-6 domination, “It
was as complete a gm as we’ve ply’d in a long time.†MO has been favored here once recently (‘04) and lost
24-3 (-2’) as NU delivered a 4H LPS Winner. In ‘06 we had NU (-4’) and they delivered easily won 34-20 as
our College GOY. We used ‘07’s gm as our B12 POW (75% Winners!) which is FREE the Full Service Line
every Friday. MO has not won in Lincoln S/’78 (15 losses by avg of 26 ppg). MO comes in with the #2 off
in the NCAA (596 ypg & 54 ppg). QB Daniel is avg 353 ypg (76%) with a 12-1 ratio. NU is off a nationally
televised night gm vs VT and they trailed in the 2H by DD’s as their comeback was all for naught (all’d 206
rush yds, 3.7). QB Ganz avg 249 ypg (64%) with a 7-4 ratio. The Huskers D is a lot better than LY (all’g 355
ypg, ranked #19 in pass eff def all’g 239 ypg, 57%, 2-5 ratio). The Tigers are off a bye and on a 17-3 SU &
14-4 ATS run outscoring foes by 23 ppg. HT has won 6 in a row SU & ATS covering by 15 ppg and we’ve
had a good pulse on this series.
Texas 31 COLORADO 17 - UT is 5-1 SU & ATS vs CU (avg W by 33 ppg) under Brown. In their last meeting
(‘05 B12 Title game) UT’s 70 pts was the highest S/’77 (70-3). We did win a Sept 5H in this series in ‘90 with
UT. Texas mauled Ark LW and has hung 42+ (4-0 ATS) on each opp w/an avg win by 39 pts. QB McCoy avg 255
ypg (80%) with a 14-1 ratio and leads the tm w/278 rush yds (8.2). The Buffs are back at home after a tough road
trip out east vs FSU (only 278 yds of off & trailed 25-7 after 3Q) as we won our 5H GOM on FSU. QB Hawkins
avg 202 ypg (64%) with a 9-4 ratio. UT is 1-6-1 as a B12 AF and 1-4 ATS before its RRR gm vs OU. CU did win
as a HD 2 wks ago vs #21 WV and LY took out a #3 OU squad 27-24 (+23). Texas does have a huge off edge
(#7-70). The Buffs are all’g 335 ypg (163 passing, 63%, 3-5 ratio) but the Horns are even better giving up just
303 ypg (53 ypg rush, 2.0) which should slow the Buffs rush attack & force CU to throw more than normal.
CALIFORNIA 34 Arizona St 20 - The Bears returned to their winning ways LW hammering CSU as they
scored TD’s on a PR, IR and a blocked punt. The win may have proved costly however as RB Best (421
rush yds, 7.1) left with an elbow inj (CS). Cal, who had won their previous 4 matchups SU & ATS vs ASU
by 25 ppg (2 upsets), had their streak snapped LY blowing a 20-14 HT lead on the road as the Sun Devils
moved to a perfect 8-0 on the ssn. ASU returns from a bye after their 2nd consec home loss at the hands
of UGA. ASU is on a 5-14 ATS run as a P10 AD but have won & covered their L/4 road openers by a 34-13
avg score with most of them coming later in the ssn. QB Carpenter has been sharp avg 296 ypg (69%) with
a 7-2 ratio but may struggle some here against a very underrated Cal secondary (#8 pass def) which has
all’d just 49% comp with a 3-8 ratio. There may be a possible QB controversy between starter Riley and bkup
Longshore. The home tm has covered 8 of the L/10 in this series giving the Bears the win here.
Florida 48 ARKANSAS 13 - The last meeting between these 2 tms was a 38-28 UF win in the ‘06 SEC
Champ gm. UF is 6-0 SU & ATS in SEC play vs Ark but is now 5-8 SU, 4-8-1 ATS vs SEC West tms after
LW’s upset loss to Ole Miss. UF had 443-325 yd and 24-10 FD edges but 3 TO’s cost them and UM blk’d
UF’s PAT w/3:28 left & held on for the win. Meyer is 3-7 as an SEC AF (but won L3), but this may be a flat
spot as they have “unbeaten letdown†plus a huge gm with LSU on deck. Ark is playing their 3rd consec gm
vs a Top 10 tm plus they have #13 Aub on deck. The Hogs have been outscored 101-24 the L2W all’g an
avg of 268 ypg rush (6.3) and haven’t covered a gm under Petrino yet. Ark all’d UT’s mobile QB McCoy to
rush for 84 yds (9.3) with 2 TD and he hit 17 of 19 for 185 yds & 3 TD’s. LY Ark finished #1 in our pass eff
D rankings, but TY they are #87 and face Tebow who has avg just 202 ypg (61%) with a 6-0 ratio plus 125
rush (2.6) but could boost his stats TW. Ark QB Dick has struggled the L2 wks and is avg 242 ypg (58%)
with a 5-4 ratio. RB Smith has 290 (5.4). Ark is 0-4 as a HD the L4Y. Florida has big edges on off (#10-72)
and def (#3-89) but their biggest is in ST’s (#1-113). UF was 3-0 ATS off a SU loss LY and Ark doesn’t have
the speed to keep this one close.
ALABAMA 27 Kentucky 10 - Kentucky is 2-33-1 SU all-time (0-19-1 on the road) vs Bama with the last UK
win coming in ‘97. The last meeting was a 45-17 Tide win in ‘04. UK has won B2B SEC openers (18 straight
losses prior to ‘06). Bama is 10-5 ATS the week prior to a bye, but 3-15 as a HF. Both tms have faced WKU
with UA winning 41-7 and UK winning 41-3 LW. Even though both teams come into this undefeated, this
will be a rude awakening for UK after opening with an avg Louisville tm, a IAA tm, and then 2 Sun Belt tms
while Bama has beaten 2 Top 10 tms already incl LW’s decisive win at #3 UGA. Bama QB JPW has avg just
149 ypg (63%) with a 6-1 ratio as RB Coffee (490, 7.0) leads the SEC in rushing. UA’s top receiver is PS#1
true frosh Jones (16, 14.1). The D’s are close with Bama (#10-22) having a slight edge, but UA has a huge
edge on off (#15-87) with UK relying on their def to win gms TY. UK QB Hartline is avg 158 ypg (59%) with
a 3-1 ratio. UK is avg 170 ypg rush (4.5) with 4 RB’s getting significant carries. UK’s top tkl’r MLB Johnson
sat out LW (ankle-CS). Though this could be a letdown spot for Bama off such a huge win, this is their SEC
home opener. The Tide crowd should be loud and Bama’s D should be disruptive for UK’s inexperienced
QB who has never started an SEC road game.
UCF 31 Smu 27 - LY, in the tms 1st ever meeting, UCF had 3 scoring plays of 72+ yds in a 49-20 rout. SMU
is on their 3rd road game in 4 wks and this is their 1st trip to Bright House Stadium, but the Mustangs are
9-3 as a CUSA AD. SMU is off a 34-27 loss at Tulane in which they were outgained 474-311, but outscored
TU 20-3 in the 2H. QB Mitchell threw two 2H TD’s as the Mustangs’ Run n’ Shoot off began to show some
signs of life. Mitchell avg 249 ypg (56%) with a 12-12 ratio (most int in NCAA). UCF is on a 3 game SU losing
streak and has yet to beat a IA team TY. LW they were beaten 58-13 on the road by a previously winless
UTEP team. UCF went with TrFr Rob Calabrese at QB and he struggled going 13-31 (42%) for 167 with a
1-2 ratio against our #91 pass eff D and the Knights turned the ball over 6x (2 FR for TD’s). UCF is just 11-16
off a SU loss under O’Leary and appears to be a team without an identity. The visitor is 12-2 ATS in SMU
games so look for HC Jones and the Mustangs’ improving offense to give UCF all they can handle.
BOWLING GREEN 41 E Michigan 13 - EM HC Genyk played QB at BG from 1978-‘81 and is 0-3 SU
but 2-1 ATS vs his alma mater. BG is 7-0 outscoring opp’s on avg 44-13 the L/7 HC gms. LY there were
5 lead changes & BG scored w/3:45 left for the win and cover 39-32 (-3’). Last trip here EM led but BG
got a 4Q TD for a 24-21 win (-10’). BG is 4-10 as a HF and Genyk is 10-4 as a MAC AD. While this is
BG’s MAC opener, EM is already 0-2 SU & ATS in MAC play being outscored by a comb 78-17. EM is
0-4 SU & ATS since opening the ssn with a win over IAA Indy St. QB McMahon who leads the tm with
115 ypg (62%) with a 2-4 ratio, made his 2nd start LW but was KO’d early (CS). QB Schmitt who has
3 starts TY but has been playing inj’d came in and threw for 140 yds (57%) with an 0-2 ratio. BG came
off a bye to destroy Wyom 45-16. They did have just 22-18 FD and 388-316 yd edges but were +4 TO.
BG has the better off (#60-111) and D (#68-109) despite playing the tougher schedule (#25-86). BG QB
Sheehan is avg 228 (63%) with a 4-3 ratio.
AIR FORCE 29 Navy 23 - Navy is 11-1 SU vs Service Academies the L/6Y winning 5 consec CIC Trophies.
AF was 19-2 from ‘82-‘02 vs Navy, but has lost a series high 5 str (by a comb 27 pts, avg score 27-21).
Navy is 24-11 (1-2 TY) as an AD. AF wants this bad despite Calhoun’s comments about de-emphasizing
the military gms. Their last time out, the Falcons lost their 1st home gm in Calhoun’s tenure, 30-23 vs Utah.
AF is off a bye while Navy is on their 4th AG in 5 wks and playing in altitude. LY we won with a 3H on these
pages on Navy (-2’) and while they trailed early 4Q they delivered a 31-20 win. Navy caught WF in a clear
letdown spot LW & got its 1st win over a ranked team in 23 yrs. The D, which had given up 76 pts in its
previous 2 outings, held WF to 17 pts and had 4 diff players snag int’s. QB Kaheaku-Enhada went out in
the 2Q (hamstring, CS) but the Midshipmen rode RB Kettani who finished with a career high 175 rush yds.
AF is 4-0 as a HF under Calhoun and has covered 10 straight reg ssn gms. Navy has just played 3 BCS
teams and AF will bring its “A+†game with an extra week to prepare.
Nevada 48 IDAHO 20 - UN leads the series 16-9 SU (4-2 ATS) winning 5 of 6 (4-2 ATS) by 31 ppg (avg
score 49-18). The Wolf Pack was 0-3 ATS as a WAC AF in ‘07 with all 3 decided by 3 or less. UN is 6-4 ATS
as an AF while UI is 3-7 ATS as a HD. UN defeated UI 45-7 (-10) in its last trip to Moscow (‘06). While the
Kibbie Dome is a unique facility, there has been little homefield edge. The Vandals have lost 7 consec home
WAC gms SU (1-6 ATS) by an avg of 18 ppg & UI is only 2-12 SU (4-10 ATS) vs IA tms at home. UI QB
Enderle is showing progress avg 165 ypg (54%) with a 7-7 ratio. His favorite target has been TE Williams
with 26 rec (13. & 3 TD and he has nearly 3 times as many catches as the next closest receiver (9). UN
has the edge on off (#14-115) & def (#91-119). UN’s dual-threat QB Kaepernick is avg 179 ypg (62%) with
a 4-2 ratio & also leads the tm with 454 net yds rushing & 7 TD’s. He single-handedly dismantled UNLV LW
accounting for 416 ttl yds & 5 TD’s. Although the Wolf Pack RB corps has been hit hard by inj’s, the running
gm churned out 465 of UN’s 620 ttl yds LW. This is the Vandals’ only HG in a 5 week span & it’s sandwiched
between a pair of B2B road gms. The Pack attack a weak Vandals D.
TCU 34 San Diego St 10 - The Aztecs are 0-3 vs TCU being outscored on avg 40-18 and the HT is 3-0
ATS. LY SDSt gave up the most yds in school history (694) in a 45-33 loss (+12’). SDSt is 8-14-1 ATS in
MWC AG’s and lost their only trip here 52-0. TCU is 11-4 as a HF. SDSt is 1-4 ATS in conf openers. TCU is
a good tm that was made to look mediocre LW vs Okla. The Frogs entered w/just 1 TO (+12) but lost 4 incl
a fmbl at the OU35 and 2 int inside the OU15 in their 35-10 loss. QB Dalton did throw for a ssn high 212
yds (only 41%) but was held to 32 rush yds. On the yr he is avg 206 ypg pass (57%) with an 0-2 ratio and is
the #2 rusher with 216 (4.2). Turner leads with 229 (4.0). The top rec is Young with 26 (13.4). SDSt snapped
a 6 gm losing streak behind the arm of QB Lindley who set a frosh record with 433 pass yds (63%, 4 TD)
vs Idaho LW. SDSt had their best off output since ‘02 with 603 ttl yds on the night. Lindley is now avg 300
ypg (53%) with an 8-4 ratio. The top rec is Brown with 20 (15. although 3 other WR’s have DD catches.
While SDSt is high after its first win, TCU has all the edges (off #41-108, D #7-104, ST #25-108), is 9-3
the L/3Y as a DD fav and rolls here.
TENNESSEE 27 N Illinois 17 - 1st meeting. UT fell to 1-3 after LW’s loss to Aub, the worst start for the
Vols S/’94 and Fulmer is under major fire. LY after their blowout loss to UF, they pummelled Ark St 48-27
and then UGA the following wk 35-14. Later in the yr, after a blowout loss to AL with Fulmer’s job seemingly
on the line, UT crushed ULL 59-7 and then Ark 34-13. UT has only faced 2 current MAC schools
(Temple & Akron) with an avg win of 40-14 (3 gms). NI did upset #21 Alabama in Tuscaloosa in ‘03. UT
is 5-9 ATS as a DD HF (covered TY vs UAB) and has a huge trip to Georgia on deck. NIll is 14-8 as an
AD but is also in a MAC sandwich off a big shutout win over EM with Miami on deck. NI QB Nicholson
has avg 123 ypg (59%) with a 3-2 ratio and is now healthy after LY’s shoulder inj. UT QB Crompton has
struggled avg 165 ypg (52%) with a 2-4 ratio. UT is avg 166 ypg rush (4. led by Foster (263, 5.6). Its
tough to go against NI as they have covered 6 in a row.
KENT ST 27 Akron 24 - The schools are just 14 miles apart and play for the Wagon Wheel Trophy. QB
Edelman had career high’s in pass yds (305) on 17-21 (81%) 2 yrs ago vs UA in a dominating 37-15 win
at home. LY KSU was in full control but blew some scoring opp and after a 36 yd FR TD only led 17-7
and the Zips rallied for the win with Edelman hitting just 8-21 for 155 yds. UA almost had their 2nd win
TY over a BCS team but could not hold a 4Q lead falling 17-15 to Cincy. Both tms have lost to Ball St.
UA lost 41-24 (7 pt HD) while KSU ended a streak of 10 straight ATS losses, 41-20 (22 pt AD). KSU's
top RB Jarvis (207, 5.2) missed his 2nd game (CS). QB Edelman is avg 133 ypg (53%) with a 5-6 ratio
and is the top rusher with 274 (4.9). The Zips are led by QB Jacquemain, who is avg 243 ypg (60%) with
an 8-6 ratio. Their top rusher is RB Kennedy (268, 4.. Akron has the off (#83-98) and def (#97-113)
edges despite playing the tougher schedule (#58-95).
Utep 31 SOUTHERN MISS 30 - LY UTEP allowed SM a ssn high 568 yds in a 56-30 loss at home with
SM RB Fletcher rushing for a career high 211 yds. UTEP QB Vittatoe returned LW after missing most of
the NMSt game and was 18-32 (56%) for 263 yds and a 3-1 ratio in a 58-13 win over UCF. The Miners’
D forced 6 TO’s and had 2 def TD’s to stop a 9 game losing streak. SMiss is off a bye and lost their 1st
CUSA HG under Fedora the previous week. UTEP has a slight edge on off (#55-59), but SM has the
edge in our D rankings (#86-98) despite all’g more ypg (413-400) and facing the weaker schedule. This
is the Miners’ 1st trip to Hattiesburg and UTEP is 2-7 SU on the CUSA road, but 9-3 ATS as a conf AD
(6-2 under Price). Price and the Miners should continue their CUSA road ATS success.
Oklahoma 48 BAYLOR 24 - OU held BU to -48 yds rush in their L/gm in Waco, 2nd best all-time and usually
makes up a good % of the crowd here. Stoops avg win over BU is 42-12, but BU had 450 yds and covered (+38)
in a 58-21 loss in Norman LY. Baylor did almost upset the Sooners in ‘05 on the road (lost in OT). Stoops faced
Briles UH offense in ‘04 and they won 63-13 with a 583-282 yd edge. OU is just 5-11 ATS prior to Texas and
was upset by CU LY blowing a 4Q lead. OU is off a dominant performance vs TCU and they are now ranked
#1. QB Bradford (LW passed for a career best 411 yds) is avg 323 ypg (72%) with a 16-2 ratio. WR Johnson
LW also set a school rec with 206 rec yds. BU is off a bye & has a real talent in QB Griffin who is avg 189 ypg
(60%) with a 7-0 ratio (#1 rusher w/334 yds, 6.1). He has accounted for 63% of the Bears off & didn’t even
start Wk 1! Baylor is just 2-12 ATS in B12 HG’s and the visitor is 10-2 ATS. BU has covered 4 of the L/5Y vs
OU, but LY in conf play went 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS losing every gm by 20+.OU is 3-0 ATS TY, outgaining foes by
274 ypg & winning by an avg of 37 ppg. They have huge off (#1-45), def (#4-80) & ST (#48-84) edges and
should once again take care of BU (OU is only school that BU has never beaten, 0-17).
OKLAHOMA ST 45 Texas A&M 17 - A&M is 10-2 SU (4 in a row) vs OSU in B12 play with the avg score
28-20. Two botched PAT's proved costly for OSU in their last gm hosting A&M, losing by 1 in OT (-3 in
‘06). LY A&M had the largest comeback in school history winning 24-23 (-6’) despite trailing 17-0 at HT.
The Aggies are off a frustrating win vs Army as they had just 14 FD & 290 yds. QB McGee (98 ypg,
71%, 1-2 ratio) reinj’d his shoulder (CS) but Johnson has a start under his belt and avg 113 ypg (57%)
with a 7-2 ratio. OSU LW reached 50+ pts for the 3rd straight gm waxing Troy for 612 yds (Troy all’d Ohio
St just 309 yds) in front of a record 52,463 fans. QB Robinson is avg 212 ypg (71%) with a 7-3 ratio. His
favorite target is WR Bryant with 22 rec (20.3, 6 TD). A&M is 7-18 as an AD and OSU is 16-4-1 ATS as
a DD fav. The Cowboys are rolling at 4-0 (3-1 ATS), winning by an avg of 30 ppg & outgaining foes by
234 ypg. The Aggies are still adjusting to Sherman’s schemes being outscored & outgained (367-298)
on the season which doesn’t bode well heading into the B12.
Ohio St 20 WISCONSIN 16 - OSU hasn’t won B2B gms vs UW S/‘95 &’96. LY Wisky led 17-10 in the 3Q
before OSU rallied for 28 straight pts in a 38-17 win (UW w/out RB Hill). UW is 3-2 SU in Camp Randall
vs OSU and upset #3 Ohio St in their last trip here in ‘03. The Bucks are 11-3 as an AF but UW has only
been a HD 2x in 5 yrs and upset Mich both times and is 6-1 in that role with their lone loss by a half pt.
OSU has covered their L/6 as a SD B10 AF by an avg of 10 ppg. OSU is off a 34-21 win over MInny
which they led 34-6 before substituting heavily in the 4Q. Beanie Wells wasn’t 100% but ran for 106 yds
to compliment Pryor’s 97 rush yds. This will be Pryor’s 1st road start. OSU’s D allows 95 rush ypg (3.5).
Wisky converted 1 TD in 7 UW trips inside Mich’s 50 in the 1H in a 27-25 loss (led 19-0 at the half) in
which the game tying 2 pt conv was called back. UW was without top rec’v TE Graham (shoulder) &
Beckum (hamstring) only played late 4Q. After holding UM to 21 1H yds, Badgers allowed 247 yds & 27
pts to the Wolves’ sputtering spread and they haven’t seen athletes the caliber of Pryor and Wells.
TULSA 54 Rice 37 - These 2 schools have played every yr S/‘96. The visitor is 8-3 SU and the favorite
is 7-4-1 ATS. LY they comb for 1,292 ttl yds & 66 FD’s in Tulsa’s CUSA West clinching win. Rice QB
Clement set a conf record with 601 ttl yds of off incl 541 pass yds in a 48-43 loss, but Rice covered
(+13’) at home. TY Clement is completing 66% of his passes and has a solid 14-3 ratio. LW, in a 77-20
rout of NT, Clement and WR Dillard hooked up for 4 scores and set the NCAA record for TD passes by
a duo with 41. Rice has a bye on deck and is 11-4 ATS the week prior to a bye. Ex-Rice Coach Graham
did not make Owls players and fans happy when he signed a contract extension and then left the next
day for Tulsa. Graham engineered a 41-38 2OT upset win by Rice in the last meeting here, but he is
3-5 (3-0 TY) ATS as a DD fav. Tulsa has our #3 off and put up 641yds (PP proj 700) vs IAA C Ark in a
62-34 win, but only led 28-20 at the half. QB Johnson is completing 74% TY with an outstanding 19-4
ratio. These are 2 of the weaker D’s (TU #111, RU #112) in the NCAA, so expect a another shootout in
this battle of offensive stars.
USC 33 Oregon 20 - The Ducks come into this gm riding some solid momentum after dismantling the
Cougars in Pullman while the Trojans return home after losing to the Beavers for the 2nd consec time
visiting Corvallis (1st unranked team to beat a #1 S/’85) and continuing their DD conf fav woes as they
now move to a puzzling 3-11 ATS. After tearing through the first 2 gms, USC struggled against the “up
the middle†OSU ground gm that tallied 176 yds on the night. The Trojans may also be missing some
key links on D TW with some VHT’s going down late in the loss (CS). LY the Ducks took advantage of
an energized home crowd & QB Sanchez making his 1st career start to knock off USC 24-17. The win
stopped a 3 gm losing streak but they are 5-3 SU vs USC. UO is 9-3 ATS as an AD and has been lethal
on the ground again in ‘08 avg 309 ypg which could cause some USC headaches after LW. The visitor
is 8-3 ATS but the fav has covered 6 of 7. While USC may be down some emotionally, they are 16-8 ATS
as a conf HF (11-3 ATS after a SU loss) but Oregon's D can keep this one within reach.
NEW MEXICO 23 Wyoming 13 - NM is 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the series but the last time these 2 met in
Albuquerque, WY got its 1st win at the site S/‘91. LY we used a 3H on NM on the road and they dominated
20-3 as a 4 pt dog. The visitor is 5-0 ATS. WY upset SEC member Ole Miss on the road in ‘04 but is just
2-10 as an AD since. Two wks ago, Tulsa handed NM its worst loss in 74 gms, but the Lobos bounced
back LW beating NMSt 35-24 despite being outgained 430-352. QB Gruner, in his 1st start (Porterie
out yr), hit 7-16 for 55 yds with a 1-1 ratio. Baker led with 146 rush yds as #1 rusher, Ferguson (528
yds, 5.0), was battling an inj (CS). WY has scored just 5 off TD’s TY and avg a measly 11 ppg. The QB’s
are playing scared as the cch’s have adopted a “no tolerance†policy as far as TO’s go. LW WY played
4 QB’s, 3 of whom tossed int’s. On the yr WY is -11 in TO’s. The 4 QB’s have comb to throw for 107 ypg
(52%) with a 2-10 ratio. RB Moore has 508 rush yds (5.6) and the leading rec has just 13 rec (thru 5
gms!!). The Pokes are 0-7 the L/2Y off a SU loss. This is Gruner’s first start at home but it’s a battle of
two good D’s and below avg QB play.
FRESNO ST 34 Hawaii 13 - Hawaii has won 5 of the L/7. The HT is 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS. These two
have combined for 76 ppg in the L/5 & the L/2 gms in Fresno have been blowouts. FSU won 70-14 (-12)
in ‘04 before UH won 68-37 (-4) in ‘06. Incl LY’s bowl gm, UH is 12-16 SU & 10-18 ATS (0-5 ATS skid)
on the mainland. The Warriors are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS under new HC McMackin. UH’s “merry-go-roundâ€
QB situation still lingers but more importantly the Warriors need to start protecting the ball (#117 in the
NCAA with 17 TO’s lost). McMackin stated UH would run more in ‘08 but the Warriors are only avg 12
ypg more (83 ypg) than they did LY & leading rusher Pilares (109 yds) is only avg 27 ypg thru 4 gms.
FSU has the edge on off (#32-94) & ST (#29-112). FSU has blocked 41 kicks S/’02 which is #1 in the
NCAA. QB Brandstater is avg 227 ypg (63%) with an 8-2 ratio & his favorite target TE Pascoe leads
with 16 rec (7.5) & 2 TD. WR Ajirotutu is a big-play threat with 15 rec (19.6) & RB Mathews has 470 yds
(5.7) & 4 TD’s. FSU is only 4-8 ATS in WAC HG’s. The Bulldogs are still in search of an outright WAC
Championship. The Bulldogs were WAC tri-Champs in ‘92, ‘93 & ‘99 but are focused on bringing the
hardware home to Fresno TY.
VIRGINIA TECH 37 Western Kentucky 6 - VT does have a bye on deck but is off a pair of ACC games
and a trip to Lincoln so they won’t be full throttle. They won 35-30 at Neb scoring on 6 str poss and
scored over 24 pts for 1st time TY in front of the largest crowd in stadium history. They also had a ssn
high 377 yds ttl off but lost ROV Davon Morgan for the yr w(ACL). VT has won their L/27 non-conf HG’s
by 31 ppg and this is HC. QB Taylor is avg 74 ypg (60%) with an 0-2 ratio. WKU may be overwhelmed in
front of this crowd as LY they were dominated 49-3 at Florida in front of 90,086. This is WKU’s 5th road
trip in 6 gms. They are off a 41-3 loss to Kentucky gaining only 157 yds ttl off with 142 of those rushing
and were outFD’d 23-8 giving us a 3H Totals Play Winner. WKU QB Black, who missed the L/2 gms
(shldr), returned and is only avg 92 ypg (56%) with 1-0 but the Hilltoppers have played the #5 toughest
schedule. WKU has the NCAA’s weakest D (#120) while VT has one of strongest (#27).
ULM 31 Louisiana-Lft 28 - LY ULL played w/o star QB Desormeaux & lost 17-11 despite outgaining ULM by
125 yds. ULL is 4-9 vs ULM S/‘91 and this is the earliest they have played this rivalry S/’97. The visitor is 10-1
ATS. ULM is fresh off a bye while this is the 3rd AG in 4 wks for ULL, all vs teams who were in bowls LY. ULL
is 13-7 ATS as an AD and avg 464 ypg while ULM is just 3-8 as a HF and avg 300 ypg. ULM QB Lancaster
is avg 201 ypg (56%) with a 5-0 ratio. ULL is off 45-37 loss to Kansas St despite outgaining them 509-470
(335-198 rush edge). ULL QB Desormeaux got pounded and did come out for a short time in 3Q. He is avg
172 ypg (61%) with a 2-2 ratio and rushing for an avg of 109 ypg (nation’s leading rusher among QB’s). RB
Fenroy is off his 19th 100 yd gm and has 453 yds (6.5) with 377 of them coming in the L/2 gms.
FIU 24 NORTH TEXAS 20 - LY’s win vs NT snapped the NCAA’s longest losing streak of 23 gms. QB
McCall hit 11-20 for 228 yds and 3 TD’s in his first start. The 7OT gm in ‘06 between NT & FIU is tied
for the longest gm in NCAA history. NT won that gm 25-22 in FIU’s only game as an AF (-3). FIU is the
more veteran squad with 18 ret starters. NT is off a 77-20 loss to Rice (most pts for a CUSA tm) with 6
TO’s resulting in 5 Owl TD’s. They have yet to have a receiver or rusher hit the 100 yd mark in a gm TY.
QB Vizza had not thrown an int up until Rice and is avg 187 ypg (61%) with a 4-3 ratio. FIU is off their
first non-conf IA win in the history of the program beating Toledo 35-16 despite being outgained 302-
239. UT was held scoreless in 2H and gave up 4 TO’s with 3 leading to FIU TD’s. FIU QB’s have been
inconsistent so far with McCall avg 68 ypg (46%) with a 1-5 ratio and Younger avg 59 ypg (48%) with an
0-0 ratio. Both tms have played tough schedules (NT #6, FIU #5) and have struggled on off (NT #111,
FIU #119) with NT avg 317 ypg while FIU is avg 196.
Tuesday, October 7 -Troy at FLORIDA ATL - FAU snapped a 4 game losing streak to Troy LY with their 38-32
road win (+16) stealing the Sun Belt Title in Troy’s FHG. FAU, off a bye, has 18 ret starters and is 10-4 ATS in
conf play. FAU QB Smith is avg 219 ypg (46%) with a 4-5 ratio. This is Troy’s 3rd straight road gm (in 4 wks)
and they were outgained 612-416 LW vs Okla St. QB Hampton is avg 233 ypg (63%) with a 9-7 ratio.
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