FOOTBALL WEEK 6
CKO
CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and
PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 2 - 6, 2008 No. 6
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 *MINNESOTA over Indiana
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 40 - Indiana 21
CKO scouts expect Minnesota HC Tim Brewster to rally his club off Ohio State loss for what is a crucial game in
Minny’s quest for bowl eligibility. Gophers have ample weapons to lay open a banged-up Indiana “Dâ€, which has
suffered injuries to three 2ndary starters and its nickel back and has yielded 960 total yards & 84 pts. in last 2
games vs. Ball St. & Michigan State. Minny QB Adam Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in passing and is more efficient
this season, with an 8-2 TD-int. ratio (was 24-19 LY). WR Eric Decker not only leads the Big Ten in receptions,
but o.c. Mike Dunbar is using him as a runner as well (8 carries, 77 YR last 4 games). Running game hasn’t fallen
off much after injury to Duane Bennett, as true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (90 ypg rushing & 5 TDs last 3 games).
Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, who was shaken up last week, has seen his passing production take a nosedive this
season from 234 ypg LY to 162 in ‘08. Obviously, he misses departed WRs James Hardy & James Bailey, while
new lead receiver Ray Fisher has just 4 catches this season.
10 *KANSAS STATE over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS STATE 34 - Texas Tech 31
Long-time Big XII scouts report oddsmakers paying a bit too much respect to offensively-flashy Texas Tech
(leads nation in passing), which has feasted on “cupcakes†and defensively-inept teams so far in ‘08. With
KSU’s demanding HC Prince reportedly spending extra time on tackling fundamentals and techniques after too
many misses the past two weeks, doubt Red Raider QB Harrell and mates maintain those eye-popping numbers
in hostile Manhattan. Meanwhile, Wildcats 6-6, 260 dual-threat QB Freeman (67%, 11 TDs, 2 ints., hasn’t been
sacked yet) should fully exploit a still-vulnerable TT defense that yielded 490 yds. vs. Nevada. With Wildcats
ground attack suddenly having much more pop with converted 6-3, 215 soph WR Lamark Brown rumbling for 137
yds. in his debut week ago, Prince’s rising squad capable of minor upset. Red Raiders a woeful 1-7 as 7-pt. or
fewer road favorite since ‘03.
10 STANFORD over *Notre Dame
Late Score Forecast:
STANFORD 23 - *Notre Dame 20
The pointspread is rising on this game after Notre Dame pulled away from inconsistent Purdue last week. But
Pac-10 scouts report things are finally starting to “slow down†for Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard, who rallied the
Cardinal in the second half two weeks ago for a 23-10 victory over stubborn San Jose and the threw three TD
passes in last week’s 35-28 road triumph at desperate Washington. Stanford power back Toby Gerhart (check
status) suffered a mild concussion in that game. But sr. Anthony Kimble is the former starter at the same spot!
And, with eight srs. on a defense that returned nearly intact from LY, you can be sure it won’t lose its poise at
South Bend. The Cardinal has already taken on Oregon State, Arizona State, and TCU—all likely 2008 bowl
teams. And you can be sure HC Jim Harbaugh (the former Michigan QB) will have the visitor properly motivated.
10 *WISCONSIN over Ohio State
Late Score Forecast:
*WISCONSIN 27 - Ohio State 19
Wisconsin is coming off a distasteful loss at Michigan, in which the Badgers gave up an uncharacteristic four
turnovers and blew a 19-0 lead. Intense Wisconsin HC Bret Bielema will have his team ready to “man up†against
Ohio State this week, and he won’t let the Badgers forget that they led the Buckeyes 17-10 late in the third quarter
before yielding four TDs in the last 18 minutes in ‘07. Wisconsin has been a powerful play in Madison, notching
27-1 SU & 17-9 spread marks the last 4+ seasons (and the Badgers are 6-2 vs. the number following their last
8 losses). Ohio State QB Pryor has added something to the Buckeye attack, but this is a hostile environment for
a youngster. OSU defense not bringing the same type of pressure it has in past, and Buckeyes might look more
like they did in trip to USC than they did in 1st 3 Qs vs. Minny.
10 *PHILADELPHIA over Washington
Late Score Forecast:
*PHILADELPHIA 27 - Washington 13
(Sunday, October 5)
Respect progress made by Washington HC Jim Zorn in installing his offense and adapting QB Jason Campblell to
his system. However, in the yin and yang that is the NFL, prefer taking Philly coming off a disappointing loss in
Chicago over a Redskin bunch that might find it difficult to duplicate emotional peak it achieved in impressive win
in Dallas. The Eagles did a number on Pittsburgh at Lincoln Financial Field, and RB Brian Westbrook could be back
in action after sitting out the Bear game with an ankle injury. Philly QB McNabb hit nine different receivers in
Chicago, and the Washington defense ranks 22nd against the pass and has just 6 sacks this season.
TOTALS: OVER (43½) in the Seattle-N.Y. Giants game—New York has generated 67 points in last two games, and Seattle has gone “over†in all three of
its games due to a leaky defense and a balanced attack...OVER (47) in the Minnesota-New Orleans game—Prolific N.O., which is scoring 28 ppg & yielding
5.2 ypc, is “over†3-0-1 TY and 16-6-1 last 23 since late ’06. Minny “over†in both road games this year, and Adrian Peterson should have some fun.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): MARSHALL (+3½) vs. Cincinnati (Friday night)—Cincy QB injuries and what figures to be a wild home crowd
pulling for Thundering Herd in an ESPN extravaganza reasons enough to take a flyer with Marshall...COLORADO STATE (-2) vs. Nevada-Las Vegas—The
real UNLV defense showed up against Nevada and allowed 444 yards on the ground. CSU 5th-yr. sr. RB Gartrell Johnson is looking for a career
high...AKRON (-3½) at Kent State—Kent State is 0-11 in last 11 games on the line, and leading RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two games with an
ankle injury. Akron is 6-1-1 vs. the number last 8, and QB Jacquemain throws for 200 yds. or more every time out...UTEP (+8) at Southern Miss—UTEP QB
Vittatoe looked sharp vs. Central Florida, and the aggressive Miner defense has made some big plays the last two games. USM defense yielding an
uncharacteristically high 27 ppg and ranks 110th vs. the run...JACKSONVILLE (estimated line: -3) vs. Pittsburgh—Jaguars have had the Steelers number,
winning last four meetings, and Pittsburgh coming off important Monday night AFC North clash against Baltimore.
posted by phantom
23 replies
-
0 likes
College Football Trend Report
FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 3) at MIDDLE TENN ST (1 - 3) - 9/30/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-1 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-1 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOUISIANA TECH (2 - 1) at BOISE ST (3 - 0) - 10/1/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
LOUISIANA TECH is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
BOISE ST is 72-44 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 72-44 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 40-17 ATS (+21.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 40-17 ATS (+21.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 47-24 ATS (+20.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
BOISE ST is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) at S FLORIDA (5 - 0) - 10/2/2008, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MEMPHIS (2 - 3) at UAB (1 - 4) - 10/2/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 1-0 against the spread versus UAB over the last 3 seasons
UAB is 1-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OREGON ST (2 - 2) at UTAH (5 - 0) - 10/2/2008, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
OREGON ST is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
OREGON ST is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 1-0 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 1-0 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINCINNATI (3 - 1) at MARSHALL (3 - 2) - 10/3/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BYU (4 - 0) at UTAH ST (1 - 3) - 10/3/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 1-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 1-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOSTON COLLEGE (3 - 1) at NC STATE (2 - 3) - 10/4/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NC STATE is 1-1 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 1-1 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RUTGERS (1 - 3) at W VIRGINIA (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RUTGERS is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
W VIRGINIA is 1-1 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PENN ST (5 - 0) at PURDUE (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 1-1 against the spread versus PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 2-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IOWA (3 - 2) at MICHIGAN ST (4 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA is 1-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 1-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIANA (2 - 2) at MINNESOTA (4 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARYLAND (4 - 1) at VIRGINIA (1 - 3) - 10/4/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA is 1-1 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CONNECTICUT (5 - 0) at N CAROLINA (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
N CAROLINA is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S CAROLINA (3 - 2) at OLE MISS (3 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS TECH (4 - 0) at KANSAS ST (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 72-46 ATS (+21.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS (3 - 1) at IOWA ST (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
KANSAS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 2-0 against the spread versus IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 2-0 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DUKE (3 - 1) at GEORGIA TECH (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA TECH is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AUBURN (4 - 1) at VANDERBILT (4 - 0) - 10/4/2008, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANDERBILT is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
AUBURN is 1-0 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
AUBURN is 1-0 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UNLV (3 - 2) at COLORADO ST (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 43-66 ATS (-29.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OHIO U (1 - 4) at W MICHIGAN (4 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
W MICHIGAN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 1-0 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 1-0 straight up against W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STANFORD (3 - 2) at NOTRE DAME (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NOTRE DAME is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-1 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 2-0 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARMY (0 - 4) at TULANE (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 2-0 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons
TULANE is 1-1 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEMPLE (1 - 4) at MIAMI OHIO (1 - 3) - 10/4/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEMPLE is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ILLINOIS (2 - 2) at MICHIGAN (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MISSOURI (4 - 0) at NEBRASKA (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEBRASKA is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.
MISSOURI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEBRASKA is 1-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
NEBRASKA is 1-1 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS (4 - 0) at COLORADO (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLORIDA ST (3 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA ST (2 - 2) at CALIFORNIA (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALIFORNIA is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
CALIFORNIA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLORIDA (3 - 1) at ARKANSAS (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 1-0 straight up against ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KENTUCKY (4 - 0) at ALABAMA (5 - 0) - 10/4/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
ALABAMA is 41-63 ATS (-28.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
ALABAMA is 41-63 ATS (-28.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ALABAMA is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
ALABAMA is 39-63 ATS (-30.3 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ALABAMA is 30-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ALABAMA is 41-63 ATS (-28.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SMU (1 - 4) at UCF (1 - 3) - 10/4/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 1-0 against the spread versus SMU over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 1-0 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E MICHIGAN (1 - 4) at BOWLING GREEN (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 1-1 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NAVY (3 - 2) at AIR FORCE (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NAVY is 100-69 ATS (+24.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 100-69 ATS (+24.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 66-40 ATS (+22.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 50-22 ATS (+25.8 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 50-22 ATS (+25.8 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) against Mountain West conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 94-63 ATS (+24.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 63-40 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 50-21 ATS (+26.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
NAVY is 53-23 ATS (+27.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 15-36 ATS (-24.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 2-0 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEVADA (2 - 2) at IDAHO (1 - 4) - 10/4/2008, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
IDAHO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
IDAHO is 1-1 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN DIEGO ST (1 - 3) at TCU (4 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON ST (1 - 4) at UCLA (1 - 3) - 10/4/2008, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 2-0 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 2-0 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON (0 - 4) at ARIZONA (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 49-73 ATS (-31.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
ARIZONA is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 27-52 ATS (-30.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
ARIZONA is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ARIZONA is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N ILLINOIS (2 - 2) at TENNESSEE (1 - 3) - 10/4/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALL ST (5 - 0) at TOLEDO (1 - 3) - 10/4/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
TOLEDO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TOLEDO is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
BALL ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 2-0 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 2-0 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AKRON (2 - 3) at KENT ST (1 - 4) - 10/4/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENT ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 1-1 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
KENT ST is 1-1 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTEP (1 - 3) at SOUTHERN MISS (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN MISS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SOUTHERN MISS is 1-0 against the spread versus UTEP over the last 3 seasons
SOUTHERN MISS is 1-0 straight up against UTEP over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OKLAHOMA (4 - 0) at BAYLOR (2 - 2) - 10/4/2008, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.
OKLAHOMA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
BAYLOR is 49-77 ATS (-35.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BAYLOR is 48-75 ATS (-34.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BAYLOR is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS A&M (2 - 2) at OKLAHOMA ST (4 - 0) - 10/4/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS A&M is 2-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OHIO ST (4 - 1) at WISCONSIN (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 1-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RICE (3 - 2) at TULSA (4 - 0) - 10/4/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
RICE is 2-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
TULSA is 1-1 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OREGON (4 - 1) at USC (2 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 1-1 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
USC is 1-1 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WYOMING (2 - 3) at NEW MEXICO (2 - 3) - 10/4/2008, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HAWAII (1 - 3) at FRESNO ST (3 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAWAII is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
FRESNO ST is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
HAWAII is 2-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
W KENTUCKY (2 - 3) at VIRGINIA TECH (4 - 1) - 10/4/2008, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 69-45 ATS (+19.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA LAFAYETTE (1 - 3) at LA MONROE (1 - 3) - 10/4/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 2-0 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 2-0 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLA INTERNATIONAL (1 - 3) at NORTH TEXAS (0 - 4) - 10/4/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NORTH TEXAS is 1-1 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
NORTH TEXAS is 1-1 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROY (2 - 2) at FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 3) - 10/7/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Sept. 30 2008 3:48pm -
0 likes
Pro Football Trend Report
INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (0 - 3) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
HOUSTON is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TENNESSEE (4 - 0) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN DIEGO (2 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS CITY (1 - 3) at CAROLINA (3 - 1) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
CAROLINA is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON (3 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 120-85 ATS (+26.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO (2 - 2) at DETROIT (0 - 3) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATLANTA (2 - 2) at GREEN BAY (2 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEATTLE (1 - 2) at NY GIANTS (3 - 0) - 10/5/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 46-70 ATS (-31.0 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 17-42 ATS (-29.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TAMPA BAY (3 - 1) at DENVER (3 - 1) - 10/5/2008, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BUFFALO (4 - 0) at ARIZONA (2 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
BUFFALO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINCINNATI (0 - 4) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/5/2008, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) - 10/5/2008, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
posted by phantom
Sept. 30 2008 3:53pm -
0 likes
Pointwise 9/30--10/6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
College Key Selections...
1--OKLAHOMA STATE over Texas A & M 54-20
1--TCU over San Diego State 54-10
2--Missouri over NEBRASKA 45-20
3--NEW MEXICO over Wyoming 38-7
4--ARIZONA over Washington 44-14
4--VANDERBILT (+) over Auburn 17-14
5--Texas over COLORADO 45-17
5--Nevada over IDAHO 52-17
NFL Key Selections....
3--New England over SAN FRANCISCO 24-13
4--DENVER over Tampa Bay 27-20
4--NY GIANTS over Seattle 33-16
5--HOUSTON(+) over Indianapolis 27-26
5--Minnesota (+) over NEW ORLEANS 23-20
posted by phantom
Sept. 30 2008 6:24pm -
0 likes
Mark Lawrence
5 BEST BET
South Carolina over Old Miss by 13
What in the world can Houston Nutt do for an encore? After outplaying
fearsome Florida in the Swamp and leaving Gainesville with a 31-
30 signature win (snapped a 9-game SEC losing streak), Nutt and his
rejuvenated Rebels are suddenly a ‘playuh’ in the SEC. Bear in mind with
a few lucky bounces against Wake Forest and Vanderbilt, Ole Miss could
easily be 5-0 and wearing a national ranking in addition to the 2008
‘glass slipper’. Still, we’re compelled to remind you that South Carolina’s
Steve Spurrier owns a profi table 45-22-1 SU and 45-23 ATS record on the
conference road in his college head-coaching career. The ol’ ball coach
may not have cashed the ticket in last week’s win over UAB but he fi nally
got to keep QB Stephen Garcia on the fi eld for an extended period of
time and the redshirt freshman revived the moribund Gamecock offense
(completed 13-of-20 passes for 131 yards and scrambled for 86 more).
That’s good news for a team that lost SU at Columbia as 17-point favorites
in their last meeting with the Rebels. Much like the Oregon State game
on Thursday, Ole Miss falls into the ‘teams off a SU dog win of 20 or
more points’ scenario, a feeble 8-16 ATS proposition when taking on a
foe off back-to-back SU wins. Nutt appears to have his Ole Miss team on
the fast track to success but following their huge win over the Gators,
the Rebels’ feet don’t fi gure to hit the ground here until they go into
the locker room at halftime. The clincher is Nutt’s poor 4-15 ATS record
versus conference opponents off a SU win (0-6 if he’s off a SUATS win).
Gamecocks are 5-0 ‘ITS’ this year and will show up HUNGRY
4 BEST BET
Alabama over Kentucky by 3
Folks in south Florida may still despise the ground he walks on but there’s
no denying coach Nick Saban has damn near performed miracles with
the Alabama program since he arrived at Tuscaloosa in 2007. Last week’s
shocking domination of preseason No. 1 Georgia at Athens moved the
Tide up to 4th spot in the Coaches Poll – and also drove the line up on
this matchup by at least a fi eld goal. After such a monster effort, Saban
will be hard-pressed to get his team up for a so-so Kentucky team. Bama’s
poor ATS history in today’s role doesn’t help, either. Bear’s descendants
are a woeful 0-4 ATS home off BB road games and just 3-12 ATS in Game
Six (Saban is also only 6-12-1 ATS off a SU dog win). Kentucky coach Rich
Brooks has led his Wildcats to an impressive 9-0 SU record in the fi rst fi ve
games of the past two seasons. UK is also 5-1 ATS away off BB homers and
5-1 ATS off a DD non-SEC win. THIS JUST IN: Since 2005, 4-0 road dogs are
11-2 ATS in Game Five. Did we mention that Bama is also a SMART BOX
3 BEST BET
Georgia Tech over Duke by 24
Hell officially froze over last weekend in Durham, NC, when Duke
absolutely bedeviled visiting Virginia in a merciless 31-3 beating. But
even though the win elevated the Dukies’ 2008 record to a surprising
3-1, expect a rapid thaw to set in Saturday when the Blue Beelzebubs
head down I-85 to Atlanta. If you’ve yet to climb aboard the Georgia
Tech ATS train, don’t let it leave the station without you. We’ve been
Paul Johnson fans from way back and his 2-1 ATS start this season has
increased his pointspread prowess to 35-21-1 since the beginning of
2004. Even better, Johnson is 11-4 SUATS during the regular season when
playing with rest, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS as chalk of more than 3
points. Our powerful database backs that up with this beauty: Game Five
teams playing their fi rst road game off a SUATS win are only 7-17 versus
the number. Hey, Duke took this many points at home last year in a 41-24
loss and they were 25-point dogs here in a 28-point loss in 2006! Looks
like David Cutcliffe’s Devils will start a new ACC losing skein here today as
Tech males a wreck out of Duke.
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:04pm -
0 likes
Mark Lawrence
5 BEST BET
New England over San Fran by 15
Roll the clock back to the first week of the season and our best guess is
the line on this game would have seen the Patriots installed as doubledigit
favorites. Today, with Tom Brady on the sidelines and the Niners a
.500 squad, two touchdowns has become a fi eld goal and suddenly this
game becomes attractive. With that we hurry off to our Bill Belichick
databank and fi nd numbers that support our contention. For openers,
Mr. Personality is 22-9 ATS in his NFL head coaching career on the road in
games off a loss, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine and 7-0 ATS as a
favorite of less than 7 points. To top it off he’s squared off against teams
from the NFC West Division 13 times and – you guessed it – he’s 13-0 ATS
in those games. Toss in Frisco’s 1-10 ATS mark as a dog off a non-division
game when facing an AFC opponent and you can see why we’re taking a
patriotic approach to this game.
4 BEST BET
Philadelphia over Washington by 16
Life has been pretty much black and white at home (2-0 SU and ATS) and
on the road (0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS) for the Eagles in 2008. More important,
from a handicapping perspective, the Green Birds have been perfect, 4-
0, In The Stats this season. They will apply that notion against a fat-andhappy
bunch of Hogs, fresh off last Sunday’s underdog win as doubledigit
dogs at Dallas. That fi ts like a Michael Jackson glove given the fact
the Skins are 0-5-1 ATS on the road off a Cowboy win while Philly is
10-3-1 ATS in division games off an ATS loss of 7 or more points behind
Andy Reid. Andy is also dandy in games off a SU favorite loss, going 17-8
SU and ATS. Just like Los Lobos, he sees a red door and wants to paint
it black
3 BEST BET
Detroit over Chicago by 7
It’s been said that the best sex a man can have is right after his favorite
football team wins a game. If that’s the case then the Motor City’s been
celibate this season. With Matt Millen no longer guarding the condoms
this may actually be a breakout game for the Lions. It happens much
more often than not to winless teams after a Bye Week. The fact of the
matter is 0-3 or worse division dogs playing with an extra wink are 7-7 SU
and 11-1-1 ATS. Additionally, the Lions are 7-5 SU and 12-0 ATS as division
home dogs against an opponent that allowed 20 or more points in its last
contest. With Lovie Smith 1-8-1 ATS in games off a win against a foe off
back-to-back losses, it’s time to break out the Trojans. The Lions and the
men from Motown are looking to make a score today!
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:05pm -
0 likes
pointwise writeups
Pointwise - NCAA 9/30--10/6
OKLAHOMA STATE 54 - Texas A&M 20 - (7:00) -- Check it out. Cowboys piled
up 55 pts, 35 FDs, & 612 yds vs Troy's #12 "D", which held OhioSt to 309 yds.
Robinson, Hunter, Toston, & Co. A steamroller. Contrast that to Ags' #101 "O"
(14 FDs vs Army) & #103 run "O". 'Boys in consecutive series heartbreaks
TCU 54 - San Diego State 10 - (6:00) -- Frogs were overmatched at Okla, but
who isn't? Were +80½ pts ATS in previous 8 gms, & allow just 29 RYpg. The
Aztecs & QB Lindley (school-record 433 PYs) did their thing vs hapless Idaho,
but remember a 293-6 RY deficit in last RG (19-pt ATS loss). Romper Room!
Missouri 45 - NEBRASKA 20 - (9:00) -- Home series, & 'Huskers averaging 45
ppg in last 5 hosters. But also allowing 46 ppg in last 7 conference games, &
managed only 55 RYs in loss to VaTech. Rested Tigs at 42.4 ppg last 18 lined
gms, on 14-4 ATS run, with Daniel in off Big12 record 20 straight completions.
NEW MEXICO 38 - Wyoming 7 - (9:30) -- 'Boy woes continue. Eleven TOs last
2 wks, with 4 QBs tossing 4 INTs vs BG. Now at 10 INTs & just 6 TDs this yr.
Lobos sputtered LY, but check 297-48 RY edge vs NMexSt. WY 0-12-1 ATS!
ARIZONA 44 - Washington 14 - (7:30) -- What little hope Huskies had is now
gone with loss of Locker (thumb). No running, rank behind only SMU in "D"
column, & 0-4 start is Willingham's worst ever. Rested Wildcats have a 111-16
pt edge at home, & own nation's 6th ranked "D". Tuitama (10/2) leads this rout.
VANDERBILT 17 - Auburn 14 - (6:00) -- Tigers have had their way with 'Dores
(Wise Points), but enter off 3 wars (1-pt, 5-pt, 2-pt margins). Spectacular "D"
(9 FDs LW), but <100 RYs "O" last 2 wks. Vandy rested, & 4-0 for only 4th
time since WorldWarII. Solid overland game, & +62 pts ATS in the early going.
Texas 45 - COLORADO 17 - (7:00 - ABC) -- Steer QB McCoy 80-of-100 TY (17-
of-19 LW), with astounding 14/1. Balance, & a 28 RYpg "D" last 2 weeks. UT
has scored 59, 52, 52, 42, 52, & 52 pts in last 6 wins, & Buffs have allowed 30+
pts 7 times since LY. Buff QB Hawkins: just 47% LW, after entering at 70%.
Nevada 52 - IDAHO 17 - (5:00) -- Vandals the pits. Now -95½ pts ATS, allowing
43 ppg in last 20 outings. Made to order for 'Pack, which is in off 2nd 49-pt
effort of the year (444-54 RY edge), behind QB Kaepernick (5 TDs, 416 yds).
WEDNESDAY
BOISE STATE 45 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00) -- Broncos a spectacular 19-3
ATS league HFs of <28 pts. QB Moore: 3 TDs & 386 yds in first start (upset of
powerful Oregon). Note a 227-38 RY, but Tech won't do much denting of Boise
"D". As a matter of fact, the Bulldogs have a 136-20 pt deficit in their last 3 RGs.
THURSDAY
SOUTH FLORIDA 33 - Pittsburgh 13 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Grothe has Bulls in full
mode. Check 245 RYs, 275 PYs in rout of NCSt, allowing 6, 12, 9, 13 FDs in
4 of 5 games. At 41.2 ppg last 6 HGs. Pitt RB McCoy finally over 100 RYs
(149 LW), but ranked 84th on "O" previously. Dog now 18-3 ATS in Pitt games.
Memphis 27 - UAB 22 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- What has happened to that Tiger "D"?
Allowed 45 ppg in 4 outings prior to recent 17, 10, 17 showings. Have run for
276 & 243 yds past 2 weeks (Steele: 203 LW). Blazers similar: 41 ppg "D", in
9 games before allowing only 2 TDs at SoCaro. But are now on 1-10 SU slide.
UTAH 41 - Oregon State 14 - (9:00 - VER) -- Epic Beaver upset of USC no fluke
(34:50-25:10 time edge), behind Rodgers' 186 RYs, with QB Moevao a steady
influence. But lost last RG 45-14, & will be hard pressed to keep it going vs Ute
outfit, which is averaging 36 ppg 14 of last 16. Held last 2 foes to 42 & 56 RYs.
FRIDAY
Cincinnati 31 - MARSHALL 21 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Pike for Grutza has been a joy
thus far (43-of-64 for 551 yds & 5 TDs) mainly to WR Gilyard. And a solid run
"D" for Cincy. But 'Cats needed 48-yd FG to get by Akron. On 19-7 ATS run,
& catch Herd off WVa buzzsaw, but MU allowing only 10 & 16 pts at home TY.
Byu 51 - UTAH STATE 10 - (8:00) -- Coogs a 103-0 pt edge last 2 outings, with
QB Hall now at 15/2 (10 TDs last 2). Won only other RG by just 28-27, & Ags
covered last HG by 20, in QB Borel's debut (97 RYs, 191 PYs). But not here.
SATURDAY
Boston College 31 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 13 - (12:00) -- Yes, we know
the dog is 7-1-1 in Eagle ACC games, but BC allowing only 8.7 ppg in lined tilts.
'Pack "D": >23 pts each of last 8 games, & going it without QB Wilson.
Replacement Beck: 3 INTs in 41-10 loss to SoFla. And just 26 RYs (1.0 ypr).
WEST VIRGINIA 30 - Rutgers 14 - (12:00) -- Now they're cooking. Knights piled
up 93 RYs (2.4 ypr) vs powerful MorganSt. Pathetic. And RU ranks 107th in
run "D" in lined tilts. Eleven TOs so far. As figured, Mounties bounced back off
2 losses with rout of Marshall (Devine: 125 RYs). Despite White's sore thumb.
Penn State 41 - PURDUE 20 - (12:00) -- Put it this way: Purdue has no defense
(103rd in nation). Sure Painter can throw it (359 yds vs NoDame), & Sheets
can run it (358 yds last 3), but check Lions with 1,426 RYs & 1,243 PYs thus
far, along with 6th best "D". Royster (518 RYs), Clark (9/1), et al. It continues.
MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Iowa 22 - (12:00) -- Stellar Spartan RB Ringer now at
681 yds last 3 wks, with MSt averaging 34 ppg last 7 regular season affairs.
Hawks may have lost RB Greene (head), who averaged stellar 10.0, 6.0, 6.4, &
7.6 ypr last 4 gms. Five Iowa TOs in loss to N'Western. MSt steadier of the 2.
MINNESOTA 34 - Indiana 20 - (12:00) -- More running room for Gopher's Eskridge,
than he had vs OhioSt (279-81 RY deficit). Covered in final 1:13 at Columbus,
& now +76 pts ATS last 6 outings. Hoosier "D": 42, 42 last 2 wks, but moved
it well vs decent MichSt "D", behind Thigpen's 12.6 ypr. This is a home series.
Maryland 27 - VIRGINIA 10 - (7:00) -- Another host series, but how can anyone
back the Cavs, who've been outscored 128-20 in lined affairs, along with a RY
deficit of 684-163? Six TOs vs Duke (14 in '08). Terps in off overcoming 17-6
halftime deficit in upset of Clemson, despite 100-RY deficit &11 FDs. Payback.
NORTH CAROLINA 24 - Connecticut 13 - (7:00) -- No stopping Donald Brown,
who now has 906 RYs, but UConn lost QB Lorenzen (foot) in upset of L'Ville
(508-279 yd deficit). Huskies -51 pts ATS last 5 RGs. Sexton for Yates for
Tars: 2 TD passes in final 9 minutes at Miami. Running "O" cause for concern.
MISSISSIPPI 24 - South Carolina 20 - (2:00) -- Blocked PAT provided the edge
in Reb shocker vs Fla. Snead: 85-yd pass in final 5:26, after 4 INTs vs Vandy.
Just 2 TDs for 'Cocks vs UAB's 118th rated "D", & now Spurrier has a QB
dilemma (Garcia, Smelley, or Beecher?). And SC ranks 97th in rushing. Rebs.
KANSAS STATE 45 - Texas Tech 41 - (3:30) -- Wow! Rested Raiders ran for
179 yds vs UMass, but an anomaly, to be sure. Harrell: 12/3, with Crabtree at
114 receiving yds pg. However, KSt averaging 39.3 ppg in last 9 hosters, with
Freeman now schools all-time yardage leader (6,238). Defense take a holiday.
Kansas 43 - IOWA STATE 17 - (12:30) -- Can't buck Jays, who've covered 17-3
lately, with their last 14 covers by 200 pts (just 8 & 1 TY). Reesing: 11/2: 70%.
Last 2 Cyc games decided by 1 & 1 pt ATS, with QB Arnaud coming from 3
INTs vs Iowa, to 4 TDs (2 running) vs Unlv. We buck home series trend here.
GEORGIA TECH 38 - Duke 13 - (12:00) -- Rested Jackets had 438 RYs vs fine
MissSt "D" (24-pt cover), & have 11 TAs in their 3 wins. Imps in off snapping
25-game ACC slide, beating Va, 31-3, despite a 46-yd deficit. GT keeps it up.
COLORADO STATE 34 - Unlv 31 - (2:00) -- Back-to-back OT games proved too
much for Rebs, in 49-27 pasting by Nevada, with a 390 RY deficit, altho QB
Clayton a super 12/1. Rams actually outstatted Cal, but 3 INTs, & Bear TDs on
punt return & blocked punt decided it. Rams, despite their Cal/TCU sandwich.
WESTERN MICHIGAN 24 - Ohio U 23 - (2:00) -- Four straight wins for WM, but
managed just 36 RYs LW, altho Hiller is a superb 15/3 (TDs to INTs). OU did
its thing vs VMI, but check just 4 RYs week before vs N'Western. To the wire.
NOTRE DAME 35 - Stanford 24 - (2:30 - NBC) -- Call it somewhere near LW's
Irish win. Clausen was flawless vs Purdue (275 PYs, 3/0), with Allen staking
ND to 100-RY edge. Irish have covered last 2 HGs by 35½ pts. Card Kimble
for Gerhart (concussion) LW: 157 RYs; & Pritchard in off 222-yd, 3-TD effort.
TULANE 40 - Army 10 - (3:00) -- Greenies couldn't be trusted as huge chalks in
7-pt win over SMU, after leading 31-7 at the half. Anderson: 376 RYs last 2 ,
with 3 TDs for QB Moore LW. Ten straight losses for Cadets, but check 280-
133 RY edge over A&M (Bowden: 128 yds). However Wave run "D" just fine.
Temple 22 - MIAMI-OHIO 20 - (3:30) -- Owls in every game but 1 (PennSt), with
"D" stepping up after loss of QB DeMichele, holding 136-36 RY edge over
WM. 'Hawks can't run (69.6 ypr in lined contests), & can't stop the run either.
Illinois 31 - MICHIGAN 24 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Wolves in off their biggest comeback
win ever in the Big House (19-0 deficit), but the visitor is still a 27-17 ATS play
when UM takes the field. Illini have allowed 49, 52, & 38 pts in last 3 away tilts,
but check a 971-900 yd edge over Mizzou & PennSt. Stay clean & take this.
Florida State 22 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 20 - (3:30) -- 'Noles came from 102 RYs to
259, in rout of Colorado, with Smith motoring for 154 (3 TDs). QB Ponder still
a question, but not that run "D". Remember, 7 TOs in their only loss. 'Canes
have held all 4 foes <90 RYs, but minus 76½ pts ATS in last 4 hosters. Tight.
CALIFORNIA 31 - Arizona State 21 - (3:30) -- Don't like this one a bit. Rested
Suns can't run, ranking 108th (176-4 RY deficit vs Georgia), but Carpenter is
decent 7/2. Misleading Bear rout of ColoSt (3 TDs on special teams & INT), &
Cal may have lost RB Best (elbow). Chalk 19-9 ATS in ASU tilts, so mildest.
Florida 48 - ARKANSAS 13 - (12:30) -- Bounceback time for Gators, who had
allowed only 6 ppg TY, before 31-pt explosion by OleMiss. No INTs for Tebow
so far, & 319 PYs vs the Rebs, altho run "O" at 120 ypg. Hogs have no "D"
(39.4 ppg last 8 lined games), with only TD vs Texas on 80-yd fumble recovery.
ALABAMA 27 - Kentucky 17 - (2:30) -- Super 'Tide upset of Georgia moved dog
edge in 'Bama contests to 26-13 ATS. Just 3 punts vs 'Dawgs (led 31-0 at the
half), & check 8th best run "D". 'Cats 4-0, even without Woodson, with 5th
ranked run "D". Off 3 HGs but covered 1st RG by 28½. Bit of a Tide letdown?
CENTRAL FLORIDA 38 - Smu 24 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Comedown for the Knights,
who averaged 41 ppg in 12 of 14 games LY, but just 15 ppg this yr (115th "O").
Seven TOs & a blocked punt in 58-13 loss to Utep. Ponies have worst run "O"
in nation, & can't stop anyone, but 3 Mitchell 2nd half TDs got the bacon LW.
BOWLING GREEN 45 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (4:00) -- Falcons latest team to
take advantage of Wyoming ineptness. Can't run (#96), but should repeat vs
Eastern, which has allowed 52, 39, 45, 42, 41, 51, & 37 pts in last 7 lined gms.
Navy 33 - AIR FORCE 30 - (4:00) -- Series dog rears its head again, as Mids in
off 1st win over a ranked team in 23 years! A 292-43 RY edge over Wake with
4 TAs. Falcs 10-1 ATS of late, & are 6-0 ATS at home by 54½ pts, but came
from 358 RYpg to 53, along with 9 FDs in luckout cover vs Utah. A Middie call.
UCLA 40 - Washington State 14 - (10:15) -- What a defense! Coogs now at a
213-47 pt deficit in lined games. Can't run, can't stop the run, & are minus 123
pts ATS in just 4 games. Astounding! Bruins finally got off schneid (90-10
deficit prior 2), coming from 51 RYpg to 234 vs Fresno. WSt doom continues.
TENNESSEE 34 - Northern Illinois 17 - (7:00) -- Huskies catch Vols off Florida
& Auburn, with Georgia up next. UT held Gators & Tigers to just 96 & 97 RYs,
but check QB Crompton at just 8-of-23 LW. So chance to explode, but NIU is
at 34.5 ppg, so may crack scoreboard. However, may have lost fine RB Brown.
Ball State 38 - TOLEDO 31 - (7:00) -- Cards at 5-0, despite losing WR Love.
Lewis: 4 straight 100 RY games & 10 TDs, with QB Davis at 11/3. Dedication.
Rocket effort vs Fresno took its toll in 38-pt ATS loss to FlaInt. May carry over.
Akron 33 - KENT STATE 14 - (12:00) -- Only way to go. Kent on 0-11 ATS run,
including minus 146½ pts ATS in last 6 games. Decent running, but no "D".
Zips in off playing solid Cincy even-up, holding 'Cats to 3.4 ypr. Lay the wood.
SO MISSISSIPPI 42 - Utep 24 - (7:00) -- How's that for snapping a 9-gm losing
streak? A 58-13 Miner rout, after entering at 39 ppg "D". And QB Vittatoe did
play (263 yds, 3 TDs). But jubilation short-lived, as rested Eagles regroup off
Marshall upset. Just 96 RYpg last 3 outings, but Fletcher & Co change all that.
Oklahoma 48 - BAYLOR 23 - (12:30) -- Sooners in TCU/Texas sandwich, & in off
just 25 RY effort. But not much overland production needed with QB Bradford
now at a brilliant 16/2 (408 PYs & 4 TDs vs Frogs). Rested Bears are vastly
improved behind QB Griffin's leadership. Check plus 37 pts ATS last 2 games.
WISCONSIN 26 - Ohio State 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Badgers in middle of Michigan,
OhioSt, PennSt stretch. Just 158, 154, & 158 RYs since opening at 404, & in
off blowing 19-pt lead. But have won last 5 HGs by combined 203-58 score.
Bucks have Wells back (106 RYs LW), & QB Pryor a true force. This is a war.
TULSA 68 - Rice 40 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Katie, bar the door! 'Canes bring #1 "O"
(>600 ypg) into this one, with QB Johnson (19/4) tossing 12 TDs last 2 weeks
(52.3 ppg in lined games TY). But Owl QB Clement threw 5 TDs in 77-20 rout
of NTx, & has teamed with Dillard for NCAA-record 41 TDs. Scoring explosion!
SO CALIFORNIA 41 - Oregon 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Regrouping time for Troy, off
shocker at OregSt (21-0 deficit, lost 27-21). A 30-yd deficit, after 626-yd edge
in first 2 outings. But Ducks shouldn't go down easily, as they're averaging 47
ppg TY, with 4th best overland game. Visiting series, with this one near spot.
FRESNO STATE 41 - Hawaii 14 - (10:00) -- Bulldogs in off 3 grinders, allowing
297 & 234 RYs last 2 wks. Balanced, behind Brandstater (8/2) & Matthews
(470 RYs). Spells trouble for 'Bows, who, amazingly, rank 102nd in scoring, &
in off losing on 47-yd FG. Hawaii has a 142-27 pt deficit in last 3 away games.
ADDED GAMES
VIRGINIA TECH 37 - Western Ky 6 La-Lafayette 31 - LA-MONROE 21
Fla International 28 - NO TEXAS 17 Troy 27 - FLA ATLANTIC 20
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:06pm -
0 likes
POINTWISE NFL:
New England 24 - SAN FRANCISCO 13 - (4:15) -- Had these 2 met on opening
week, the spread would have been about 10 pts higher, but things have sure
changed. Pats had their 21-game regular season streak snapped in that 37½
pt line loss in Miami. Amazing 461-216 yds deficit in that one. Cassel: an INT
& a fumble. Now on a 1-8 ATS slide. Niners down to earth LW, with just 1 TD
at NewOrleans, after 33 & 31 pt showings previous 2 wks. Gore: 212 RYs last
2 wks, & O'Sullivan a good one. But Belichick is 7-0 ATS away, off a DD SU &
ATS loss, while the Pats are 10-0 ATS vs the NFC West, & 19-6 ATS off a loss
NEW YORK GIANTS 33 - Seattle 16 - (1:00) -- Defending champs had a bye
LW, but note that they're off to their best start since 2000. Just 2 TDs in their
OT win over Cincy, but Eli is cranking it up (46-of-72 last 2) while Jacobs &
Ward are trucking it at 4.9 & 6.8 ypr. No Burress (insubordination), but should
handle the 'Hawks, who've allowed 44, 42, & 34 pts in their last 3 RGs (lost 1st
RG 34-10). The host is on a 30-13 ATS run in Seattle games, & 'Hawks are an
anemic 4-13 ATS as non-division RDs, as well as 1-9 ATS vs an opponent off
3 straight wins. And the Giants are on an 8-1 spread run. NY is the play here.
DENVER 27 - Tampa Bay 20 - (4:05) -- Brian Griese returns to Denver. He has
thrown no less than 97 passes the past 2 weeks (6 INTs), but the Bucs are on
a 3-game run, turning a 21-20 deficit with 2:30 left, vs GreenBay, into a 30-20
win. So things are going nicely for Tampa, which held the Pack to 8 FDs, &
check Graham with 334 yds thus far. The Broncos in search of a "D", allowing
29 ppg, & in off allowing 213 RYs at KC. The host is on a nice 9-2 ATS run in
Denver games, while Tampa is 5-20 ATS on the non-division road, & 1-9 ATS
HOUSTON 27 - Indianapolis 26 - (1:00) -- Texans still winless, altho it took OT
to dispose of them LW, as Schaub tossed a franchise-record 3 TD passes vs
the Jags. Before that effort, he had 5 INTs & only 1 TD pass. And prior to that
contest, Houston was on the wrong end of a 69-39 pt differential. A year ago,
the Texans averaged 28.3 ppg at home, so they can move it. Colts have yet to
run it: RY deficits of 183-53, 180-25, & 236-114 so far, with Peyton just 3/4.
Indy is 2-8-1 ATS in division play of late, as well as 1-11 ATS as a division chalk
off a SU loss vs a losing foe. The Texans? A solid 10-5 ATS as division hosts.
MONDAY
Minnesota 23 - NEW ORLEANS 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- About time for the Vikes
to right their listing ship. Four TOs in loss to Tennessee, 3 of which were turned
into TDs. Still have the scintillating Peterson (420 RYs so far), along with one of
the league's better "D"s (7th overall). The Saints have ridden the arm of Brees
once more, as he is throwing for 336 ypg, with 8 TDs, altho he has been picked
off 4 times. NewOrleans ranks 28th overland, so won't do much vs Vikes' 3rd
best run "D". The Saints are 9-17 ATS home off a SU/ATS win, 1-11 ATS home
vs an opponent off a RG, & 0-10 ATS as an Oct HF vs a foe off a SU/ATS loss.
BALTIMORE 17 - Tennessee 16 - (1:00) -- Quite a nice start for the Titans, who
are off to their first-ever 4-0 start. Not only that, but check covering those 4 by
10, 18, 14½, & 10 pts. Not too bad, considering that they entered this season,
just 15 pts from a 1-13 spread run. They have held their last 8 foes below 18
pts, & altho they were outstatted by the Vikes, 4 takeaways provided the edge.
But the Ravens, who are in off their Monday Nighter with the Steelers, have
allowed just 10 & 10 pts as hosts, & are 30-12 ATS as non-division hosts.
Titans 3-12 ATS off scoring 28+ pts, & 0-9 ATS as RFs of <3½ pts off SU win.
San Diego 33 - MIAMI 20 - (1:00) -- Wow! Dolphins didn't fool around in the
snapping of their 11-game road slide, with that 38-13 drubbing of the Patriots
(461-216 yd edge: a 37½ pt cover). Check Brown with 4 TDs, 113 RYs (6.6
ypr), with Ricky at 98 RYs. Mixing the direct snap put the Pats in a quandary.
And how about Chad with a 17-of-20 day? But still 2-20 SU, & continuing vs
this Charger outfit may be asking a bit much. Could easily be 4-0, as they're
averaging 34.5 ppg. Rivers: 10/4. SanDiego is 13-2 ATS of late, & 15-6 ATS
off a DD division win. Miami is 5-23 ATS off a win of at least 20 pts. Chargers.
CAROLINA 34 - Kansas City 17 - (1:00) -- Finally! Chiefs snapped 12-game
slide, with 33-19 pasting of the previously perfect Broncos, with Huard a nice
21-of-28, & Johnson rolling for 198 RYs (7.8 ypr). But that Denver "D" has
been mauled all year, while the Panthers have allowed only 13 ppg as hosts so
far. And remember that KC dropped its last RG, 38-14. The return of Smith
has upped the potency of this Carolina squad by leaps. If they avoid penalties
(22 last 2 games), Panthers should breeze here. They are on a 4-0-1 ATS
home run, while the Chiefs are 5-15 ATS on the NFC road. New skein begins.
PHILADELPHIA 20 - Washington 10 - (1:00) -- The 'Skins sure showed their
worth in upset of the Cowboys, with a 164-44 RY edge, along with a 36:27-
23:33 time advantage. And how about the maturation of Campbell, who is a
brilliant 66-of-97 the past 3 weeks, with 6 TDs, & no INTs. Throw in Portis,
who motored for 121 vs the Cowboys. Wash is now on a 7-2 ATS run, & has
held 13 foes below 21 pts since LY. But the Eagles could easily be 4-0, with
excruciating 4-pt losses at Dallas & Chicago. Have allowed only 6 ppg in their
last 3 HGs. 'Skins are just 3-14 ATS off pulling an upset. Brutal war to Eagles.
DETROIT 24 - Chicago 23 - (1:00) -- Lions needed LW's bye in the worst way,
as they've opened at 0-3, while allowing 37.7 ppg. As a matter of fact, they've
been stung for 36.1 ppg in their last 9 contests, & are not only on a 1-10 SU
run, but a 2-9 spread slide. Thus far, they've been outrushed, 623-227. That's
right, nearly 400 yds. And now Kitna is hurting (knee), & Millen is gone. The
Bears, on the other hand, are +75½ pts ATS in their last 7 contests. The fly in
the ointment shows that the dog is on a 6-0-1 ATS run in Chicago games. The
Lions are 32-17 ATS off a loss of 15+ pts. Hold our noses, & make a Lion call.
GREEN BAY 24 - Atlanta 9 - (1:00) -- No early line here, due to shoulder injury
to Rodgers, but he should play. He threw 3 INTs LW, after 157 passes without
a pick (3rd longest streak in franchise history). Just 8 FDs for the Pack in that
loss to the Bucs, but still a 16-7 ATS play. The Falcons? Well, they've played
2 RGs to date, losing both by the exact same 24-9 score, so why not another?
Ryan is just 34-of-72 away, & the Falcs have allowed 29 ppg in their last 11
outings. Atlanta is 16-4 ATS on the October road vs .500 or better foes, but
McCarthy is 9-2 ATS off non-division game vs an opponent off a SU/ATS loss.
ARIZONA 24 - Buffalo 20 - (4:15) -- Injury to Card WR Boldin puts this one into
proper perspective. Cards piled up 33 FDs in loss to the Jets, in which they
allowed 6 Favre TD passes. Six TOs (5 by Warner) more than offset 472 PYs
from Kurt. But Cards are at 31 ppg in their last 12 contests, so should be able
to give the Bills all that they can handle. Buffalo is still perfect, despite just 14
FDs & a 100-yd deficit at StLouis (25-0 2nd half edge). The Bills are a more
than profitable 18-9-1 ATS of late, but suddenly without the services of WR/KR
Parrish, a true game breaker. And the chalk is 7-1 ATS in 'Zona games lately.
DALLAS 27 - Cincinnati 19 - (4:15) -- Well, the visitor has been perfect so far, in
Cowboy games, covering all 4, by a combined 35 pts ATS. Not only that, but
their last 4 HGs have been decided by 4, 4, 4, & 2 pts SU. Check the 'Boys'
164-44 RY deficit hosting the 'Skins. The Bengals are still winless (along with
Houston, StLouis & Detroit), but in their last roadster, they covered by 10½, as
they extended the Giants into OT. Sure, they can't run (657-324 yd deficit), &
have been held below 20 pts in 7 of their last 9 games, but the dog is on a nice
11-2 ATS run in Cincy games (10 outright upsets). Very weak call for the pup.
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 16 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Not much leeway in Jag
contests, as their last 3 have been decided by just 4, 2, & 3 pts SU, with the
last 2 featuring Scobee FGs for the wins. Garrard is getting better protection
with just a single sack LW, & he has gone 39-of-54 the past couple of games.
Catching the Steelers off their Monday Nighter with Baltimore is a plus, so note
that the host is on a 14-5 ATS run in Pitt games. And note further that the
Steelers are averaging only 8 ppg on the road in the early going. Jacksonville
is 9-1 ATS as the series host, & is 28-12 ATS vs non-division opponents of late.
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:07pm -
0 likes
STAT FOX / THE PLATINUM SHEET - NCAA
10/1/2008 (303) LOUISIANA TECH at (304) BOISE ST
It seems that Boise State may be as good as ever, and from early
returns, it would appear that Louisiana Tech is also falling into its usual
patterns of performance. From a historical perspective that means
there could be good value with the Broncos this weekend in the made
for TV Wednesday night special. Boise has had its way with Tech on
the home turf, winning three games by an average of 36.0 PPG. The
only reason they are only 2-1 ATS in those contests is because they’ve
been favored by a whopping 29.8 on average. The Broncos have
scored 55, 55, & 36 points the last three times they’ve hosted LT. With
the Bulldogs allowing 442 YPG and 5.9 YPP, I’d say there is a great
chance Boise scores well above 40 points again. This trend says a lot:
LOUISIANA TECH is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units)
versus good offensive teams - averaging
>=5.9 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISIANA TECH
12.9, OPPONENT 48.2 - (Rating = 2*).
Don’t be scared of the number here, as
Tech is one of the worst road underdogs in
all of college football, being outscored by a
43.2-11.4 margin in their L14 opportunities
(3-11 ATS).
Play: Boise St -21.5
10/4/2008 (351) MISSOURI at (352)
NEBRASKA
Does the fact that Nebraska was a 7-point
home favorite over Virginia Tech and a
10-1/2 point home dog to Missouri mean
that the Tigers would be favored by almost
20 against the Hokies? Or this simply an
overreaction to last week’s line mistake in
the Cornhuskers’ game? I’d say more of
the latter. Nebraska is still a good team,
and their Outplay Factor number thus
far (+17.6) proves it. Missouri’s is just 2.5
points higher at this point, meaning both
teams are of elite caliber. Therefore, there’s
really no reason for the lofty double-digit pointspread. Let’s not forget
the Tigers’ historical troubles in Lincoln. Since ’92, Nebraska is 8-0 in
this series at home, playing to an average line of -23.2 and winning by
a 38-11 count. HC Gary Pinkel would be happy enough to just walk out
of this game with a win, never mind the pointspread. Nebraska will not
roll over for the Tigers on the home turf. Don’t fall for the overreaction
or Missouri’s stats vs. suspect defenses.
Play: Nebraska +10.5
10/4/2008 (379) BALL ST at (380) TOLEDO
In its first game without fallen WR Dante Love, Ball State barely missed
a beat, turning back Kent State 41-20 on the home turf. The Cardinals
used Love’s absence as a motivating tool for that game. This week’s
contest will be a real test however, as Ball State takes to the road to
face a Toledo team with which they have historically had problems. The
Rockets have consistently been one of the toughest teams in the MAC
when playing at home. They are 19-9 ATS against conference foes
under Tom Amstutz and have taken six of the L7 against Ball State in
Toledo. On top of that, HC Brady Hoke’s team is struggling defensively,
having allowed 400 YPG over their last four. If there is one recipe I
can suggest to stick to, it’s fading struggling defensive teams as road
favorites in environments where they have historically faltered.
Play: Toledo +7
10/4/2008 (385) OKLAHOMA at (386) BAYLOR
Oklahoma has put up some gaudy offensive numbers in the early
going but there are just certain spots on the schedule that are difficult
pointspread wins for even the best teams
in the country. This game in Waco could
be one of those for the Sooners. It is a
sandwich contest between the TCU game
last week and next week’s Red River
Rivalry showdown with Texas. However,
this isn’t just a situational spot. There are
some valid reasons by Baylor should prove
competitive in this game. The Bears are
drastically improved under Art Briles. In
fact, you should probably take all recent
Big 12 trends at this school and throw them
away, they no longer apply. Unlike past
seasons, this Baylor squad is able to both
run and throw on offense and defend the
run well on the other side of the ball. OU’s
defense meanwhile, hasn’t exactly been
dominant since the Week 1 win, allowing
325.3 PPG since. They typically aren’t a
great large favorite either: OKLAHOMA
is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a favorite of
21.5 to 31 points since 1992.The average
score was OKLAHOMA 33.9, OPPONENT
12.4. Don’t expect an outright upset here
but don’t assume this will be the usual
Oklahoma rout either.
Play: Baylor +27
10/4/2008 (393) OREGON at (394) USC
USC lost to an extremely motivated Oregon State team last Thursday
night. That in turn should make the Trojans extremely motivated
themselves for the next several weeks as they try to get back into the
national championship picture. A convincing win over Oregon would be
enough to get the pollsters to forget about the defeat and start the push
back to the top. There is one specific trend I like to point to when USC
welcomes any upper level team to L.A.: Pete Carroll is 11-3 ATS (+7.7
Units) in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+
PPG on the season as the coach of USC. The average score was USC
37.6, OPPONENT 16.6 - (Rating = 1*). I learned my lesson betting
against this team when it is motivated. I’ll back them here.
Play: USC -16.5
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 6 (ATS & Total)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (363) SMU vs. (364) UCF
Play On - A road team (SMU) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival against opponent off a blowout
loss by 35 points or more to a conference rival. (26-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating=4*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (5-1). L5 Seasons: (7-2). Since 1992: (32-12).
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (325) MARYLAND vs. (326) VIRGINIA
Play On - A home team (VIRGINIA) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive
games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. (38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-1). L3 Seasons: (16-3). L10 Seasons: (62-60). Since 1992: (94-85).
MULTIPLE GAMES
Play On - Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (BAYLOR, IDAHO) - in conference games, returning 8+ offensive
starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. (25-4 since 1992.) (86.2%, +20.6 units.Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (3-0). L5 Seasons: (6-0). L10 Seasons: (10-1).
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 6 (ATS & Total)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (381) AKRON vs. (382) KENT ST
Doug Martin is 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. as the coach of
KENT ST. The average score was Martin 18.3, OPPONENT 29.9 - (Rating = 6*)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (343) STANFORD vs. (344) NOTRE DAME
STANFORD is 11-0 UNDER (+11 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The
average score was STANFORD 10.9, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (399) W KENTUCKY vs. (400) VIRGINIA TECH
Frank Beamer is 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of VIRGINIA TECH. The average
score was Beamer 32.3, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (387) TEXAS A&M vs. (388) OKLAHOMA ST
OKLAHOMA ST is 11-0 ATS (+11 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992. The average score was
OKLAHOMA ST 37.5, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (387) TEXAS A&M vs. (388) OKLAHOMA ST
OKLAHOMA ST is 11-0 OVER (+11 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 41.1, OPPONENT 24.6 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (359) FLORIDA vs. (360) ARKANSAS
Bob Petrino is 11-0 OVER (+11 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has
coached since 1992. The average score was Petrino 34.5, OPPONENT 35.8 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (391) RICE vs. (392) TULSA
TULSA is 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992. The average
score was TULSA 31.5, OPPONENT 34.8 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (353) TEXAS vs. (354) COLORADO
Mack Brown is 33-13 OVER (+18.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of TEXAS. The
average score was Brown 39.4, OPPONENT 21.4 - (Rating = 3*)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (395) WYOMING vs. (396) NEW MEXICO
Joe Glenn is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of WYOMING.
The average score was Glenn 21.5, OPPONENT 29.2 - (Rating = 3*)
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 6 (ATS & Total)
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (375) WASHINGTON vs. (376) ARIZONA
The UNDERDOG is 8-3 SU & 11-0 ATS in WASHINGTON-ARIZONA series since ‘97.
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (333) KANSAS vs. (334) IOWA ST.
The HOME TEAM is 12-4 SU & 12-3 ATS in KANSAS-IOWA ST series since ‘92.
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (355) FLORIDA ST. vs. (356) MIAMI
The UNDERDOG is 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in FLORIDA ST-MIAMI series since ‘98.
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (367) NAVY vs. (368) AIR FORCE
NAVY is 12-4 ATS vs. AIR FORCE since 1992.
Saturday, 10/04/2008 (385) OKLAHOMA vs. (386) BAYLOR
The ROAD TEAM is 10-2 ATS in OKLAHOMA-BAYLOR series since ‘96
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:07pm -
0 likes
STAT FOX / THE PLATINUM SHEET - NFL
10/5/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO at (410) MIAMI
San Diego was sleep walking for three quarters of Sunday’s game
versus Oakland but still managed to turn it on enough to cover a twoscore
pointspread. This team has the type of talent to “flip the switchâ€.
Hopefully this time around it won’t be a matter of waiting till the point
of urgency, since there’s no reason they shouldn’t walk away with a
comfortable win at Miami, especially since they were finally able to
get their primary weapons, Tomlinson and Gates, going on offense
late in Oakland. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers have been a team
that has been tough to stop once they get started: Turner is 8-1 ATS
(+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 26.2, OPPONENT 16.3
- (Rating = 1*). They are also a healthy 15-3 ATS in their L18 AFC
games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are off their bye week and could
be still hung over from the upset of New
England. This game could be a painful
wake up call.
Play: San Diego -6.5
10/5/2008 (413) WASHINGTON at (414)
PHILADELPHIA
As strange as it sounds, Washington
will have wrapped up its road divisional
schedule for 2008 after this game. It is their
second straight contest on the road versus
a NFC East foe, following up the upset
of Dallas last Sunday. It figures to be too
much to ask for them to pull off yet another
stunner here against a Philadelphia team
that is too good on both sides of the ball
to slip to 2-3. In fact, the Eagles could
find themselves in trouble as far as the
playoffs are concerned if they were to
lose here. I just don’t see that happening.
They have been dominant defensively so
far, especially at home, where they have
yielded just 9 points and 346 yards in two
games. Meanwhile, Washington’s offense
has turned it around in its last three games
after the ugly start at New York. However, those offensive breakout
performances were against teams far less capable defensively than
Philly. With RB Brian Westbrook toughing it out this week, look for HC
Andy Reid’s team to bounce back with a convincing win.
Play: Philadelphia -4.5
10/5/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY at (422) DENVER
Prior to Denver’s loss at Kansas City, what do you suppose the line
in this game would have been? My guess is it would have been
something similar or higher than that of the Broncos-Saints game
two weeks ago, or about -5. Let’s face it, the Broncos put on a poor
performance at K.C. but that was a divisional road game with a
double-digit pointspread. There aren’t too many times where NFL
teams cover as chalk in that scenario. It’s simply a difficult situation.
Now, hosting an unfamiliar non-conference foe who hasn’t played in
your stadium since ’99, now that’s a different story. Tampa’s defense
has been bad in five straight road games dating back to last year.
Denver should enjoy another big day offensively. The Broncos are
also due for some luck in the turnover category: Play On - Favorites
vs. the money line (DENVER) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing
1 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games where they
forced 1 or less turnovers. (26-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.9%,
+23 units. Rating = 3*). This seems to be too much of an overreaction
to last week’s results. Take Denver.
Play: Denver -3
10/5/2008 (425) BUFFALO at (426) ARIZONA
Just as I believe that Denver was in a tough spot last week, so was
Arizona, having to play two straight games
across the country on the east coast.
Fatigue was certainly a factor for HC
Ken Whisenhunt’s team, especially on
defense. Fortunately, the Cardinals are
back at home this Sunday, where they are
7-2 under “the Whisâ€. They’ve also fared
well against the AFC in is tenure, going 5-1
ATS. Buffalo has put together a 4-0 start
but has yet to beat anyone who is sure to
be a playoff team in ’08. This is probably
the Bills’ toughest task to date, since
ARIZONA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when
playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.
> 75%) since 1992. Backed by this nice
StatFox Money Line Super Situation, take
the hosts: Play On - Home favorites vs. the
money line (ARIZONA) - good offensive
team - scoring 24 or more points/game,
after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more
last game. (30-2 over the last 10 seasons.)
(93.8%, +26.8 units. Rating = 4*)
Play: Arizona -2
10/6/2008 (431) MINNESOTA at (432) NEW ORLEANS
Although the results haven’t shown in the point totals that the Vikings
have given up in the first four games, Minnesota is still a very tough
team defensively. In this Monday night game at New Orleans, HC
Brad Childress’ team will enjoy a tremendous statistical edge on
defense. The most convincing numbers to look at are in yards per play
allowed. So far in four games, the Vikings are yielding just 4.9 YPP,
while the Saints have been gashed for 6.2 YPP. For those betting
Minnesota here, you also get the benefit of being a 3-point underdog,
possibly more with a hook if you can score it. The Vikings have faced
a killer schedule thus far and are probably better than the 1-3 record
indicates. Look for them to lean on Adrian Peterson extensively in this
game, giving them a great shot at the road upset.
Play: Minnesota +3
TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (405) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (406) HOUSTON
Play Against - Favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by
40+ YPG, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. (34-7 since 1983.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating=4*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (7-0). L10 Seasons: (15-2).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Play Over - Home teams against the total (ARIZONA) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an
average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. (31-7 over the last 10
seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (1-0). L3 Seasons: (10-2). L5 Seasons: (17-3). Since 1983: (61-44).
MULTIPLE TEAMS
Play On - Favorites (DALLAS, DENVER) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. (41-14 over
the last 10 seasons.) (74.5%, +25.6 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (5-1). L5 Seasons: (21-7). Since 1983: (78-45).
TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The
average score was DENVER 21.1, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 5*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The average score
was DENVER 22.6, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 5*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
Norv Turner is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was Turner 27.1, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (423) NEW ENGLAND vs. (424) SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ENGLAND
37.1, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was
JACKSONVILLE 30.7, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
Rod Marinelli is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of DETROIT. The
average score was Marinelli 18, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 3*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
Mike Shanahan is 98-66 OVER (+25.4 Units) as a favorite as the coach of DENVER. The average score was Shanahan
26, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 2*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (419) SEATTLE vs. (420) NY GIANTS
Mike Holmgren is 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) in October games as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren
20.1, OPPONENT 24 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Dick Jauron is 37-16 UNDER (+19.4 Units) off 1 or more straight overs in all games he has coached since 1992. The
average score was Jauron 15.4, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 2*).
TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
The UNDERDOG is 10-8 SU & 14-3 ATS in L19 games of CHICAGO-DETROIT series.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (407) TENNESSEE vs. (408) BALTIMORE
The UNDERDOG is 8-6 SU & 12-2 ATS in TENNESSEE-BALTIMORE series since ‘97.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
The HOME TEAM is 15-5 ATS in PITTSBURGH-JACKSONVILLE series since ‘95.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (413) WASHINGTON vs. (414) PHILADELPHIA
The UNDER is 20-11 in the PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON series since 1992.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
The UNDER is 7-0 in the L7 games between MIAMI & SAN DIEGO
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:09pm -
0 likes
THE GOLD SHEET - NCAA
KEY RELEASES
MICHIGAN STATE by 19 over Iowa
CONNECTICUT by 3 over North Carolina
VANDERBILT by 5 over Auburn
ALABAMA by 28 over Kentucky
MICHIGAN STATE 36 - Iowa 17—MSU’s RB Ringer has 681 YR in his
last 3 games and leads the nation in scoring. Meanwhile QB Brian Hoyer
showed improved form at Indiana, throwing for 261 yds. & 2 TDs with no
interceptions. Iowa’s 5-TO performance against Northwestern shows Hawkeye
offense still has problems. QB Ricky Stanzi has 3 ints., just 1 TDP in last 54
passes, and a late-game head injury to star RB Greene clouds the offensive
picture. Iowa on 9-19-1 spread run. TV-ESPN2
(07-IOWA 34-Mich. St. 27 (OT)...M.23-13 I.44/230 M.52/160 M.25/44/0/308 I.5/15/0/53 I.0 M.1)
(07-IOWA +3 34-27 (OT)...SR: Iowa 20-17-2
*Connecticut 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 24—Both teams off uplifting
come-from-behind road wins led by reserve QBs. UConn soph QB Frazer
(Notre Dame transfer) has nation’s leading rusher in jr. Donald Brown (906 YR & 11
TDs), a physical OL featuring two 5th-yr. seniors and a more veteran defense that’s
allowed just 14 ppg. Favor undefeated Huskies energized by confident HC Edsall.
TV-ESPN2 (DNP...SR: N. Carolina 1-0)
*VANDERBILT 22 - Auburn 17—Since Auburn QB Todd (last in SEC
in pass efficiency) struggling in new spread attack (Tigers last in 3rd-down
conversions), willing to “take†with rested, confident Vandy, led by versatile QB
Nickson, who is expected to welcome back previously-injured WR G. Smith (top
returning pass catcher). Doubt Todd or backup Burns will suddenly shine vs.
aggressive, mistake-creating ‘Dore defense (11 sacks; 10 ints.), spearheaded by
marvelous, 2-way performer D. J. Moore (37 YR vs. Rice). TV-ESPN
(07-AUB. 35-Vandy 7...A.19-17 A.39/239 V.38/133 A.14/18/1/165 V.12/31/1/88 A.0 V.0)
(07-AUBURN -7' 35-7...SR: Auburn 20-19-1)
ALABAMA 38 - Kentucky 10—Now that highly-ranked Bama is in the
thick of national title hunt, believe mastermind Saban (unhappy with “lack of
intensity†in 3rd Q vs. Georgia) can prevent major letdown with fast-starting Tide
(outscoring foes 74-0 in 1st Q). Bama owns huge QB edge with polished J.P.
Wilson (63%, 6 TDs, 1 int.), whose ground assault (215 ypg, 13 TDs) will wear
down Kentucky defense. Tide’s stifling run defense has yielded only 1 rush TD
in last 24 Qs! TV—CBS
(DNP...SR: Alabama 33-2-1)
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2
*SOUTH FLORIDA 26 - Pittsburgh 17—Bulls a solid investment at Tampa
recently, covering 8 of their last 11 as host. And resourceful USF jr. QB Grothe
rates MAJOR edge over limited Pitt counterpart Stull (only 2 TDP TY). Veteran
Panther stoppers no pushovers, however, holding 9 of last 10 foes to fewer than 28
points. Visitor should hang inside roomy spread behind rushing of star soph RB
McCoy. TV-ESPN
(07-S. Fla. 48-PITT 37...P.20-18 S.44/193 P.34/95 P.24/38/3/298 S.17/23/0/159 S.2 P.0)
(07-Usf -10 48-37 06-USF +4' 22-12 05-PITT -1' 31-17...SR: South Florida 3-2)
*Memphis 34 - UAB 24—Blazers’ versatile jr. QB Webb possesses a few
weapons, especially with speedy soph WR/return man Forrest expected back
after sitting out last week. Too bad UAB defense (466 ypg) can’t hold up its end.
Tigers’ deep cast of rangy WRs and emerging juco RB Steele (203 YR in win
over Ark. St.) will eventually overwhelm hapless host (only 4 covers last 15 at
mostly-empty Legion Field).
(07-MEMPHIS 25-Uab 9...M.25-23 M.43/265 U.30/105 M.14/28/0/298 U.25/39/2/233 M.0 U.0)
(07-MEMPHIS -11 25-9 06-UAB -5' 35-29 05-Uab +2' 37-20...SR: UAB 7-3)
*UTAH 31 - Oregon State 16—Dr. Phil is probably jumping up and down at
the dynamics associated with this “psychology play†deluxe, as OSU off
emotional mega-upset of top-ranked SC, while Utah chomping at the bit in
revenge mode after LY’s opening-game loss at Corvallis when QB B. Johnson
& RB Asiata were both KO’d. Stout Ute rush “D†well-equipped to slow betweenthe-
tackles runs by frosh RB “Quizz†Rodgers that befuddled Trojans, and
more-refined components on Utah attack capable of extending margin.
(07-ORE. ST. 24-Utah 7...O.18-12 O.44/241 U.30/18 U.17/37/0/178 O.12/30/2/129 O.0 U.0)
(07-OREGON STATE -6' 24-7...SR: Oregon State 9-4-1)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3
*MARSHALL 20 - Cincinnati 16—Bearcats down to their 3rd-string QB (see
Special Ticker). Clever Cincy mentor Kelly, who’s covered 66% of his games
as a head coach since ‘05, still owns superior defensive depth & speed in thismatchup. Can maturing Marshall RS frosh QB Cann find enough openings in
Bearcats’ leaky pass coverage to lead Herd to its sixth straight victory at
Huntington? TV—ESPN
(07-CINCY 40-Mar. 14...C.22-19 C.39/217 M.35/80 M.21/32/1/257 C.20/27/0/219 C.0 M.1)
(07-CINCINNATI -24 40-14...SR: Cincinnati 7-3-1)
*Byu 48 - UTAH STATE 13—WAC sources insist USU not as helpless as
recent editions, especially with unheralded QB Borel adding some spark to new
option looks in Aggie attack. But high-flying BYU in no mood to cut any slack
to lower-profile state rival, and BCS-dreamin’ Cougs might want to match the
damage done by mortal enemy Utah, which won big at Logan (58-10) a few
weeks ago.
(06-BYU -27 38-0...SR: BYU 41-33-3)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4
Boston College 20 - NORTH CAROLINA ST. 17—With veteran HC O’Brien
saying he’s never seen a situation similar to the extensive list of injuries
currently plaguing his Wolfpack, any investment in N.C. State a dicey
proposition. Just not that eager to lay substantial points on road with BC side
struggling to find an offensive identity with new sr. QB Crane (5 ints., just 2 TDP)
at trigger of attack.
(07-BOS. COL. 37-Ncs 17...N.21-19 B.39/231 N.24/56 N.29/54/5/351 B.15/34/1/142 B.0 N.2)
(07-BC -13' 37-17 06-NCS +6' 17-15 05-BC -4' 30-10...SR: Boston College 3-2)
WEST VIRGINIA 28 - Rutgers 20—Check status of Mountaineer star QB Pat
White (thumb injury, but expected to be available at TGS press time Sunday
night). Even if White good to go, prefer to take points with Rutgers. Substantial
edge owned by Scarlet Knights’ WRs, and emergence of thumping RS frosh RB
Brooks (5 TDs & 199 YR in last 2 games) giving strong-armed sr. QB Teel more
time to find targets.
(07-W. Va. 31-RUT. 3...R.20-15 W.47/254 R.40/183 W.10/16/0/144 R.15/31/2/131 W.0 R.2)
(07-Wva -6' 31-3 06-WVA -10' 41-39 (OT) 05-Wva -3' 27-14...SR: West Virginia 29-4-2)
Penn State 37 - PURDUE 21—Definite defensive edges to undefeated Penn
State despite Nittany Lions’ slippage last week in yielding 24 points & 4.5 ypc
at home vs. Illinois, even with return of suspended DE Evans & DT Kuroma.
However, Purdue has far more defensive questions, as the Boilermakers rank
107th in total defense. Purdue QB Painter will move the ball, especially if PS S
Scirrotto can’t go, but Penn State has too many weapons to ask Boilers to trade
TDs for more than a half. TV—ESPN
(07-PSU 26-Pur 19...Pn.29-22 Pn.41/251 Pr.23/68 Pr.27/48/0/255 Pn.22/36/0/210 Pn.1 Pr.1)
(07-PSU -7' 26-19 06-Psu -3 12-0 05-PSU -15 33-15...SR: Penn State 8-3-1)
MINNESOTA 37 - Indiana 24—Minny got a backdoor cover at Ohio State,
scoring twice after trailing 34-6 with less than 9 minutes to play. However,
Gophers improved enough to bounce back against Indiana defense that’s
yielded 84 points & 960 yds. in last 2 games and has yet to cover TY. Will lay
reasonable number against Hoosier side making first road trip of the season (IU
0-4 SU & vs. number last 4 on the road LY).
(07-IND. 40-Minn. 20...I.22-20 I.42/228 M.29/112 M.24/44/2/280 I.24/36/1/235 I.0 M.0)
(07-IND. -13 40-20 06-MINN. -6 63-26 05-Minn. -12' 42-21...SR: Minnesota 36-26-3)
*Maryland 33 - VIRGINIA 13—Despite Terrapins’ recent surge, very
uncomfortable laying big points on road with Maryland squad that tends to play
to level of competition. Absolutely no interest in Virginia side, however, as Cavs
(just 9 ppg first 4) plumbing depths offensively while showing little spine on
defense. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-Va. 18-MARY. 17...V.25-16 V.39/191 M.38/130 V.23/36/0/248 M.13/19/0/103 V.0 M.0)
(07-Va. +4 18-17 06-Mary. -3' 28-26 05-MARY. +3' 45-33...SR: Maryland 41-29-2)
MISSISSIPPI 20 - South Carolina 19—Sure, Houston Nutt got a signature
win at Ole Miss (1st victory over Top 5 squad since 1977!) faster than expected
with stunning 31-30 upset at Florida. But still interested in grabbing higher price
with defensively-stout USC (just 13 ppg, SEC-best 221 ypg), 7-2-1 as away
underdog under the Spurrier. ‘Cocks prized, good-scrambling RS frosh Garcia
(accounted for 217 yds. vs. UAB) & emerging corps of WRs able to burn Ole
Miss’ inviting red zone defense (15 scores in 16 chances; last in SEC). Rebels’
QB Snead has 8 TDP, 8 ints. (DNP...SR: Mississippi 8-5)
Texas Tech 31 - KANSAS STATE 30—TT program still ahead of K-State’s,
but Wildcats’ jumbo QB Josh Freeman (11 TDs, 2 ints.) giving all the signs he’s
ready to trade points with the Red Raiders. Sr. WR Deon Murphy, 5-7 juco
smurf Brandon Banks, and 6-6 TE Jeron Mastrud provide ample targets for
Freeman to duel TT QB Graham Harrell, while HC Prince’s STs always a threat.
REG TV—ABC (05-TX TECH -14' 59-20...SR: Tx Tech 6-3)
Kansas 34 - IOWA STATE 14—With KU supremely rested (played Sam
Houston State followed by bye week) for its Big XII opener, will side with
accurate QB Reesing (70.4%, 11 TDs, only 2 ints.) and veteran Jayhawk
defense over promising but still developing ISU QB Austen (65%, 4 TDs, 2 ints.).
Must be midful, however, of ISU’s 4-1 mark last 5 as home dog.
(07-KANSAS 45-Iowa St. 7...K.31-16 K.37/212 I.26/52 K.30/35/0/354 I.24/43/1/182 K.0 I.0)
(07-KANSAS -26 45-7 06-Kansas -1 41-10 05-KANSAS +3 24-21 (OT)...SR: Kansas 47-34-6)
GEORGIA TECH 30 - Duke 23—Go-with vs. go-with? Tech certainly
qualifies now that pointspread dynamo Paul Johnson (3-0 against line TY; 40-
23-1 his last 5+ seasons at Navy) has taken helm in Atlanta. But insiders insist
downtrodden Duke’s early-season uptick no fluke, and can-do new HC
Cutcliffe’s Blue Devils brimming with confidence after snapping 25-game ACC
losing streak last week. Poised QB Lewis (28 TDP last 1+ seasons) will keep
visitor close. CABLE TV—ESPNU
(07-Ga. Tech 41-DUKE 24...G.21-9 G.52/259 D.28/24 G.11/25/1/218 D.12/29/0/122 G.1 D.1)
(07-Tech -13' 41-24 06-TECH -25 49-21 05-Tech -20' 35-10...SR: Georgia Tech 44-30-1)
COLORADO STATE 31 - Unlv 26—Will it be deja’ vu for UNLV? Sequence
of events eerily similar to Mike Sanford’s previous three seasons in charge,
when Rebs enjoyed similar quick breaks from gate before things went spinning
out of control after bitter loss to hated rival Nevada...which just whipped UNLV
again last week, exposing leaks fore and aft on Rebel stop unit. MWC scouts
report CSU better than advertised, so doubt Rams done in again by fluky nature of
last week’s loss at Cal (Bears scored 3 TDs via defense and STs!).
(07-Colo. St. 48-UNLV 23...U.26-21 C.49/279 U.38/222 U.25/39/3/337 C.13/19/0/218 C.1 U.2)
(07-Csu +2' 48-23 06-CSU -17 28-7 05-Csu -15 31-27...SR: Colorado State 11-4-1)
WESTERN MICHIGAN 25 - Ohio 24—Prefer underdog Ohio U. and
emerging QB Boo Jackson, who has thrown for 880 yards and 6 TDs in last 3
games. Bobcats are 16-5-1 vs. the number last 22 on the line, and experienced
Ohio HC Frank Solich will certainly try to use Temple’s defensive gameplan as
a blueprint to slow prolific Bronco QB Hiller (held to 1 TDP for 1st time this
season) & RB West (just 35 YR vs. Owls).
(06-OHIO +4 27-20...SR: Western Michigan 29-28-1)
Stanford 27 - NOTRE DAME 24—Although Stanford would gladly welcome
availability of slamming RB Gerhart (left last week’s game at U-Dub with
concussion), relief performance of sr. caddy Kimble (career-best 157 YR vs.
Huskies) indicates Jim Harbaugh indeed has some rabbits to pull out of his hat.
And though ND QB Clausen off career game (275 YP) vs. Purdue, he’s been
more apt to self-destruct than Stanford counterpart Pritchard, whose vet OL
now providing pristine protection. TV—NBC
(07-N. Dame 21-STAN. 14...N.19-18 S.44/175 N.38/117 N.19/32/1/196 S.15/33/2/152 N.3 S.0)
(07-Und +4' 21-14 06-UND -29' 31-10 05-Und -15' 38-31...SR: Notre Dame 16-6)
TULANE 30 - Army 14—Green Wave has permitted just 69 ypg rushing in
first 4 games, and hungry Tulane should ride its defensive edge to 3rd straight
victory. However, winless Army might hang around now that Black Knights
found competent triggerman (soph QB Bowden had 128 YR last week) for backto-
the-future switch to triple-option attack.
(07-ARMY 20-Tulane 17 (OT)...T.17-14 T.45/247 A.37/47 A.21/29/0/193 T.16/25/0/154 A.0 T.1)
(07-ARMY -6 20-17 (OT) 06-TULANE -5 42-28...SR: Tulane 8-6-1)
MIAMI-OHIO 22 - Temple 10—Temple has scored just a pair of field goals
since QB DiMichele was injured early vs. Penn State. Backup RS frosh QB
Chester Stewart is just 27 of 51 passing with 3 ints. & 0 TDPs and hasn’t been able
to throw deep accurately. Miami-O. jr. QB Raudabaugh gives RedHawks a
significant edge and can put pressure on game but overworked Owl defenders.
(07-TEMPLE 24-Miami 17...M.22-11 T.34/110 M.27/56 M.33/59/2/314 T.14/19/0/188 T.2 M.1)
(07-TEMPLE +6 24-17 05-Miami-Ohio -21 41-14...SR: EVEN 1-1)
Illinois 21 - MICHIGAN 19—Second-half comeback against Wisconsin
could be just the tonic Michigan needs. However, Wolverines still showed a
propensity for turnovers (5 more last week), and RS frosh QB Threet isn’t a
good fit for Rich Rodriguez’ offense. Illini QB Juice Williams has improved as
a passer, sporting the best completion percentage & TD-int. ratio of his career.
RB Dufresne has run for 6.7 ypc, and WR Benn scored 2 TDs at Penn State.
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-Mich. 27-ILL. 17...M.23-15 I.31/137 M.46/115 M.21/33/2/228 I.14/26/1/116 M.1 I.1)
(07-Michigan -1' 27-17...SR: Michigan 66-21-
*Missouri 31 - NEBRASKA 17—Strange situation, with Mizzou favored in
the Land of Corn, where the Tigers haven’t won since 1978, going 0-15! MU
coach Pinkel is quite aware of that fact, however, and has been focused on this
matchup since the end of last season. NU’s 35-point allowance last week vs.
Virginia Tech’s young skill group is an indication that the Cornhusker defense still
has plenty of holes for Mizzou’s Daniel, Maclin & Co. to exploit. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-MO. 41-Neb. 6...M.32-20 M.36/195 N.25/74 M.34/49/0/411 N.25/43/1/223 M.0 N.0)
(07-MISSOURI -6 41-6 06-NEB. -6 34-20 05-MISSOURI -1 41-24...SR: Nebraska 63-35-3)
*Texas 30 - COLORADO 23—Colt McCoy (80%, 14 TDs, 1 int.) can hardly
play much better. But questions remain about the youthful Texas secondary.
With 5-6, 175 true frosh mighty mite Rodney Stewart (107 YR last week vs. the
quick Florida State defense) balancing the offense, CU QB Cody Hawkins has
just enough weapons to hang around Longhorn team that’s just 2-6 as a road
favorite since Vince Young left. TV-ABC
(05-TEXAS -17 42-17; TEXAS -26' 70-3-Big XII championship at Houston, TX...SR: Texas 8-6)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 23 - Florida State 17—It wasn’t too long ago that annual
meetings between these heated rivals carried major national implications. Both
teams very young TY, showing only glimpses of resurgence after decided
decline of recent seasons. Sloppy Seminoles (12 penalties in each of last 2
games!) have better WRs and slight defensive edge. Young Miami QBs RS
frosh Marve & tr. frosh Harris appear further along learning curve than FSU
soph counterparts Ponder & Richardson, however. REG TV-ABC
(07-Miami 37-FLA. ST. 29...F.19-17 F.47/158 M.45/153 F.14/33/2/208 M.11/22/3/173 M.1 F.3)
(07-Miami +5' 37-29 06-Fsu +3' 13-10 05-FSU +3 10-7...SR: Florida State 27-25)
CALIFORNIA 31 - Arizona State 30—Not everything as rosy as it seemed
for Cal in last week’s romp past Colorado State, as electric soph RB Best KO’d
with dislocated elbow, and shaky effort by QB Riley perhaps re-opening
competition with former starter Longshore (who played well in relief).
Meanwhile, Sun Devils had an extra week after numbing home defeats vs.
UNLV & Georgia, and QB Carpenter and vet receiving corps well-equipped to
trade points in Berkeley. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-ARIZ. ST. 31-Cal. 20...A.25-18 A.53/144 C.25/98 C.18/36/2/261 A.17/29/0/219 A.1 C.0)
(07-ASU -3 31-20 06-CAL -8 49-21...SR: Arizona State 14-13)
Florida 42 - ARKANSAS 13—Since new Arkansas HC Bobby Petrino might
be wishing he were still in Atlanta following lopsided losses vs. Alabama & rival
Texas (outscored 66-10 by intermission), must “lay it†with Florida, seething
from come-from-ahead 31-30 loss vs. Ole Miss. Gator QB Tebow (61%, 6 TDP,
no ints.), who personally apologized for the Rebel defeat, bounces back vs.
frosh-laden, sieve-like Hog defense (SEC-worst 38 ppg & 191 ypg rushing).
Urban Meyer 3-0 vs. spread following SU loss LY.
(06-Florida -2' 38-28 at Atlanta, Ga...SR: Florida 6-1)
UCF 31 - Smu 24—Can’t back bumbling Knights (10 giveaways, only 3 TDs
last 2 games) even though they’ve covered 6 of 8 as host since moving into new
on-campus stadium LY. SMU taking more lumps than expected under
respected new HC June Jones, but Mustangs’ true frosh QB Mitchell (3 TDP
last week) isn’t getting worse.
(07-Ucf 49-SMU 20...S.25-19 U.39/262 S.54/228 U.14/24/1/222 S.18/38/3/176 U.1 S.1)
(07-Ucf -11' 49-20...SR: UCF 1-0)
BOWLING GREEN 42 - Eastern Michigan 22—BG is just 2-8 last 10 laying
double digits, but that’s about all overwhelmed EMU has going for it. Eagles
have allowed 43 ppg and 234 ypg rushing in compiling 0-4 spread mark this
season, and QB Kyle McMahon (65% in two games after taking over starting
job) left the NIU game with a shoulder injury.
(07-B. Green 39-E. MICH. 32...27-27 E.52/269 B.39/193 B.21/33/1/226 E.12/18/0/134 B.1 E.0)
(07-Bgu -3' 39-32 06-BGU -10' 24-21...SR: Bowling Green 23-10-1)
Navy 27 - AIR FORCE 26—Painful 5-game losing streak vs. Annapolis rival
grates Air Force more than Bill O’Reilly does to Keith Olbermann. But even if
Navy QB Kaipo in civilian wear after reinjuring hamstring at Wake, Mids
confident they can compete on even terms after backup Bryant was at tiller for
last 2½ quarters of upset over Deacs. Falcon option certainly no mystery to
Navy, and new AFA QB Shea Smith yet to display ability to sneak a pass or two
downfield, as did predecessor Carney.
(07-NAVY 31-A. Force 20...A.25-18 N.56/302 A.52/237 A.18/23/0/237 N.4/7/0/79 N.0 A.1)
(07-NAVY -2' 31-20 06-Navy +2' 24-17 05-NAVY -1 27-24...SR: Air Force 25-15)
Nevada 52 - IDAHO 20—With Idaho (1-12 vs. spread last 13 on board!)
plumbing depths of ineptitude unfamiliar to even the longest-suffering Vandal
fans, oddsmakers are going to have to be in a very generous mood before we’d
bite on the Kibbie Dome crew. Especially since Nevada regained its swagger
last week at UNLV, when QB Kaepernick (240 YR & 176 YP vs. Rebs) did a
pretty good Vince Young impersonation. Wolf Pack HC Ault usually takes care
of business as chalk (18-8 in role since ‘04).
(07-NEVADA 37-Idaho 21...N.26-17 N.45/159 I.35/56 N.15/26/0/203 I.12/24/1/156 N.1 I.0)
(07-NEVADA -17' 37-21 06-Nevada -10 45-7 05-NEVADA -8' 62-14...SR: Nevada 16-9)
*TCU 41 - San Diego State 10—After escaping Oklahoma with limbs still
intact, facing SDSU will make TCU feel like it’s on a date with Beyonce’.
Especially since we’ve seen what can happen to Aztec RS frosh QB Lindley
when infantry provides no diversion (as was the case in blowout loss at San
Jose). TCU should similarly shut down SDSU ground traffic and limit Aztecs
thru air. TCU very reliable as home chalk for HC Patterson (11-4 in role since ‘05).
(07-Tcu 45-S. DIEGO ST. 33...T.39-15 T.69/376 S.21/75 S.26/51/0/366 T.26/42/0/318 T.3 S.0)
(07-Tcu -12' 45-33 06-TCU -17 52-0 05-Tcu -6' 23-20...SR: TCU 3-0)
*UCLA 39 - Washington State 15—After respective slow starts, perhaps
new HCs Rick Neuheisel and Paul Wulff could be excused for wishing they
were back at their previous jobs. But there appear to be more silver linings in
UCLA’s clouds than Wazzu’s, especially since vet o.c. Chow seemed to find
defibrillator for moribund Bruin attack in last week’s shootout loss vs. Fresno,
when jerry-rigged OL finally displayed some cohesion, and RB Kahlil Bell
returned to lineup. Positives harder to identify for Cougs, now reduced to their
3rd QB (RS frosh Lobbestael) and allowing 65 ppg (!) vs. Pac-10 foes.
(07-WASH. ST. 27-Ucla 7...W.31-14 W.51/274 U.29/100 W.28/47/1/271 U.17/36/0/167 W.0 U.1)
(07-WSU +6 27-7 06-Wsu +2 37-15 05-Ucla -5 44-41 (OT)...SR: UCLA 35-18-1)
*ARIZONA 45 - Washington 20—Ty Willingham’s chances of survival at UDub
now slightly less than the GOP’s of regaining majorities in the Senate and
House after yet another stinging home loss (vs. old employer Stanford),
especially with do-everything QB Locker likely sidelined by fractured thumb.
Doubt backup Fouch (though brave in relief vs. Cardinal) can help Huskies
compensate for poor-tackling “D†allowing 41 ppg. Meanwhile, Mike Stoops
showing signs of taking no prisoners (UA win margin 39 ppg in its 3 triumphs!)
as he tries to save his own job in Tucson.
(07-Ariz. 48-WASH. 41...W.25-22 W.46/236 A.24/25 A.38/51/1/510 W.17/30/2/336 A.1 W.3)
(07-Arizona +4 48-41 06-Wash. +3' 21-10 05-Wash. +13 38-14...SR: Washington 17-6-1)
*TENNESSEE 27 - Northern Illinois 14—UT in testy mood following first 1-
3 start since ‘94, as vexed Vols continuing to get unsteady play from
mistake-prone QB Crompton (just 52%, 2 TDs, 4 ints.). Senior-laden NIU (22
on roster) is used to competing in hostile environs (Ann Arbor, Columbus &
Madison L3Ys). Huskies battle-tested sr. QB Nicholson owns enough weapons
(emerging smurf-like 5-7 frosh RB M. Brown hard to tackle) to do some damage
vs. non-dominating UT defense (allowing 42% on 3rd down). NIU has covered
6 straight on board. (FIRST MEETING)
*Ball State 38 - TOLEDO 35—Since UT (4 TOs, outscored 21-0 in 3rd Q)
was clearly unable to recover from exhausting 55-54 OT loss vs. Fresno State
week before in its stunning 35-16 home loss vs. FIU, don’t mind taking extra
value with Rockets, who’re 6-1 as a Rubber Bowl underdog since ‘03. UT’s
capable QB Opelt (20 starts) & his sure-handed, rangy WRs, 6-5 S. Williams &
6-4 N. Moore, able to trade most of way with BSU’s prolific triggerman N. Davis.
(07-BALL ST. 41-Toledo 20...T.26-20 T.39/214 B.41/181 B.14/20/0/265 T.20/34/2/203 B.0 T.0)
(07-BSU -6' 41-20 06-Bsu +4' 20-17 05-Toledo -20 34-14...SR: EVEN 16-16-1)
Akron 31 - KENT STATE 20—Not difficult to go against Kent State, which
has dropped 11 in a row against the points, has given up 44 ppg in last 3 on the
line, and ranks 105th on defense & 112th in turnover margin. Add in fact that
star Flash RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two contests with an ankle
injury and is very iffy for this game, and you have enough evidence to back
Akron. Zips are on a 6-1-1 spread run, and QB Jacquemain has thrown for more
than 200 yards in each game this season.
(07-AKRON 27-Kent St. 20...A.16-15 K.49/220 A.50/133 K.8/21/2/155 A.9/23/1/112 A.1 K.2)
(07-AKRON +2' 27-20 06-KSU +2' 37-15 05-AKRON -13' 35-3...SR: Akron 28-20-2)
*SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Utep 35—Miners dug themselves out of the dumps
last week, ending 9-game losing streak with resounding 58-13 home win over
UCF. Meanwhile HC Fedora’s USM attack a work in progress under direction
of RS frosh QB Austin Davis. Confident soph Vittatoe (30 TDP, only 11 ints. last
1+ seasons) well established under center for revived UTEP, and attacking
Miner defense has scored 4 TDs in last 2 games.
(07-S. Miss 56-UTEP. 30...S.29-21 S.62/363 U.30/124 U.19/42/1/290 S.10/22/1/205 S.1 U.1)
(07-Southern Miss -3 56-30...SR: Southern Miss 2-1)
Oklahoma 48 - BAYLOR 13—OU is No. 1 in the country for the first time
since just prior to its Big XII title game loss to K-State in 2003, with Sam
Bradford (72%, 12 TDs, 2 ints.) igniting the Sooners’ no-huddle, big-play
offense to near perfection. HC Art Briles has clearly rejuvenated the Baylor
program. But it’s asking a lot of speedy true frosh QB Robert Griffin to trade
points with Bradford. Note, however, OU only 2-5 vs. the spread on the road in
2007; has Texas next.
(07-OKLA. 52-Bay. 21...O.24-20 O.37/180 B.26/170 O.20/25/1/353 B.25/42/2/280 O.0 B.0)
(07-OKLA. -38' 52-21 06-Okla. -20' 36-10 05-OKLA. -14' 37-30 (OT)...SR: Oklahoma 17-0)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 51 - Texas A&M 23—Oklahoma State has lost four
straight in series to A&M, the last three in memorable, agonizing fashion
(Cowboys blew 18-point lead LY!). So, with the Aggie defense somewhat
lacking in speed, and with the OSU offense (51 ppg TY) cooking on all cylinders
(612 yards vs. athletic Troy last week) while A&M is testing its new offense onBig XII road for the first time, will look for some Cowboy revenge.
(07-TX. A&M 24-Osu 23...O.23-19 O.41/200 T.43/150 O.17/27/0/259 T.12/21/0/218 T.0 O.1)
(07-TAM -6' 24-23 06-Tam +3 34-33 (OT) 05-TAM -20 62-23...SR: Texas A&M 17-6)
*WISCONSIN 26 - Ohio State 21—Wisconsin’s uncharacteristic generosity
at Michigan (4 TOs, including int.-return TD) unlikely to repeat itself now that
Badgers are back at Camp Randall Stadium. Return of Beanie Wells was a plus
for OSU (106 YR), but offense still adjusting to frosh QB Pryor, and the stats he
compiled at home against Minnesota won’t be as easy to come by facing stout
Badger stop unit smarting from setback at Ann Arbor. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-OSU 38-Wis. 17...O.21-15 O.36/211 W.37/12 W.18/30/0/269 O.17/28/0/166 O.0 W.2)
(07-OHIO STATE -16 38-17...SR: Ohio State 51-17-5)
*TULSA 59 - Rice 49—Torrid Tulsa, which has scored at least 45 points in 9
of its last 10 games, hasn’t missed a beat with sr. QB David Johnson (74%,
nation-leading 19 TDP, only 4 ints.) directing o.c. Malzahn’s creative attack. But
vulnerable Hurricane defense unlikely to keep irrepressible Rice sr. QB Clement
(64 TDP & 17 TDR last 2+ seasons!) from trading scores.
(07-Tulsa 48-RICE 43...R.38-28 R.37/159 T.37/151 R.40/67/1/541 T.22/39/1/441 T.0 R.0)
(07-Tulsa -13 48-43 06-Rice +14 41-38 (OT) 05-Tulsa -7 41-21...SR: Rice 7-5-1)
*SOUTHERN CAL 34 - Oregon 23—We’ll take Pete Carroll at his word and
assume there’s no chance SC will come out as flat as it did in last week’s
stunning loss at Corvallis. But we’ll also take Carroll at his word that some of
Troy’s fundamentals not where they should be (especially after his “D†proved
vulnerable to Beavers’ run game). Oregon spread scoring plenty of points with
whomever is at QB (capable juco Masoli back in lineup last week at Wazzu). And
remember Mike Bellotti has fared better than most vs. Carroll (beating him twice).
REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-ORE. 24-S. Cal 17...O.22-18 O.47/182 S.33/101 S.26/42/2/277 O.16/25/0/157 O.2 S.1)
(07-OREGON -3 24-17 06-USC -8 35-10 05-Usc -21 45-13...SR: Southern Cal 36-16-2)
*NEW MEXICO 27 - Wyoming 10—UNM hardly the archetype of a reliable big
favorite (Lobos only 1-3 as DD chalk since ‘05), especially with catalyst QB Porterie
out and RS frosh reliever Gruner spending most of his time handing off to RBs
Ferguson & Baker. But that’s more than can be said of confused Wyo (0-12-1 last
13 on board!), whose QB merry-go-round (4 took snaps last week vs. BG!) now has
Joe Glenn looking like the first HC who could be canned before season concludes.
(07-N. Mex. 20-WYO. 3...N.15-12 N.46/153 W.30/48 N.12/21/0/191 W.21/35/0/190 N.0 W.1)
(07-Unm +3' 20-3 06-Wyo. -1' 14-10 05-Unm +6' 27-24...SR: Wyoming 32-28)
*FRESNO STATE 38 - Hawaii 10—Since UH offense (skunked in 2nd H of
SJS loss week ago!) light years away from LY’s explosive, Colt Brennan-led
attack, must support class-dropping FSU side still fuming over 68-37 blowout on
this field in ‘06. Bulldogs productive QB Brandstater & his well-balanced attack will
have its way vs. overworked Warrior “D†that’s allowed 101 pts. in 1st two road tilts.
(07-HAW 37-Fres. St. 30...25-25 F.44/182 H.24/137 H.29/40/1/410 F.15/26/0/209 H.1 F.1)
(07-HAWAII -19 37-30 06-Hawaii -4 68-37 05-Fsu -12' 27-13...SR: Fresno St. 20-19-1)
ADDED GAMES
VIRGINIA TECH 35 - Western Kentucky 10—Tech off tough 3-game stretch
(wins by 3, 3, and 5 points), and Hokie HC Beamer playing it very close to the
vest on offense. Can outclassed WKU (just 26 points total in last 4 visits to BCS
teams) score enough to stay respectable? (FIRST MEETING)
*LA. MONROE 30 - La.-Lafayette 24—There’s no such thing as home-field
edge in this bayou version of Hatfields vs. the McCoys (road team has won last
5 meetings!). But scheduling dynamics might be disadvantage for ULL, which
emptied chamber in last week’s upset attempt at Kansas State, while Monroe
recuperated with needed bye. Ragin’ Cajun QB Desormeaux no mystery to
Warhawks, whose slick QB Lancaster more likely to make deciding plays thru air.
(07-Mon. 17-LAF. 11...Ll.21-18 Lm.52/196 Ll.37/180 Ll.19/38/1/240 Lm.11/19/0/99 Lm.0 Ll.1)
(07-Ulm -3' 17-11 06-Ulm +3 39-20 05-Ull +2' 54-21...SR: La.-Monroe 22-20)
*Florida Intl. 31 - NORTH TEXAS 30—Talk about contrasting performances.
FIU off 35-16 upset win at Toledo, and UNT recouping from mortifying 77-20
debacle at Rice. But still might slightly lean to Mean Green, which owns QB
edge with soph QB Vizza, who hadn’t thrown a pick until last week. Dog has
covered 3 straight between these two Sun Belt bottom-feeders.
(07-FL. INTL. 38-N. Tex. 19...N.16-15 F.40/116 N.26/92 N.31/54/2/253 F.11/20/1/228 F.0 N.1)
(07-FIU +2' 38-19 06-NTU +1' 25-22 (OT) 05-Ntu +1' 13-10...SR: North Texas 2-1)
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7
Troy at Florida Atlantic—Check http://www.goldsheet.com [goldsheet.com]">www.goldsheet.com on Tuesday!!
(07-Fla. Atl. 38-TROY 32...T.27-23 T.39/175 F.37/141 F.23/34/0/291 T.36/50/1/271 F.0 T.2)
(07-Fla. Atl +15' 38-32 06-Troy -3' 24-17 05-TROY +3' 28-14...SR: Troy 4-1)
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:10pm -
0 likes
THE GOLD SHEET - NFL
KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND by 14 over San Francisco
ARIZONA by 17 over Buffalo
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tampa Bay-Denver game
OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 34 - Tampa Bay 26—Denver’s Achilles’
Heel apparently the same as LY, as Larry Johnson (198 YR last week) the latest
to puncture soft Broncos rush defense. Not sure T.B.’s chop-busting Earnest
Graham can’t do similar damage. But Bucs living very dangerously these days,
with Brian Griese (back at one of his old haunts) still prone to sloppy efforts (his
3 picks nearly undid T.B.’s dominance vs. banged-up Packers last week). Jay
Cutler & Co. (34 ppg last 5 at home) tough to outscore at Invesco Field, and
doubt Denver self-destructs with the TOs (4 of ‘em) that undermined attack at
Arrowhead. “Totals†alert—Broncos “over†13 of last 15 at home, and 20 of last
25 overall since late “06; T.B. “over†8-2 last 10.
(04-Denver -3 16-13...SR: Denver 4-2)
New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13—Bill Belichick’s defense led
the way in Super Bowl XXXVI at New Orleans as N.E. defeated Mike Martz’
Rams and their high-powered offense 20-17 on a last-second FG. Now,
Belichick’s defenders are under the microscope after giving up TD drives of 74,
79, 77, 79 and 62 yards vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago! Insiders report extrahard-
hitting, back-to-basics defensive practices in Foxborough since then,
while Tom Brady has reported early in the A.M. to help Matt Cassel with film
study after coaches tailored play book more to his liking. Pats just 2-12 vs. the
spread their last 14 overall, but J.T. O’Sullivan sacked six times in N.O. More
of the same this week.
(04-NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-7...SR: San Francisco 7-3)
ARIZONA 30 - Buffalo 13—After spending two the last two weeks on
the east coast, yielding a total of 8 TOs and 8 TDP, Arizona gets to turn the
tables on undefeated AFC East rep Buffalo. But even if hard-nosed WR
Anquan Boldin sidelined (check status), will come back with Cardinals now on
home turf for only the second time TY. Rookie power back Tim Hightower (via
Richmond) helping Edgerrin James in backfield, and QB Kurt Warner’s arm is
well-oiled, as evidenced by his 472 YP in six-giveaway performance by Arizona
last week. (04-BUFFALO -3' 38-14...SR: Buffalo 5-3)
Indianapolis 31 - HOUSTON 23—First home game for 0-3 Houston, thanks
to Hurricane Ike, which not only damaged the roof of Reliant Stadium, but also
the homes of several Texan players. Indy’s divisional home loss two weeks ago
vs. Jacksonville makes us lean to Colts for the victory, even with Indy’s depleted
defense (especially without SS Bob Sanders). Houston will be a hard-fighting,
homesick host. But Texans finding ways to lose, and New Orleans—albeit in a
more severe situation—never could shake the Katrina distractions in 2005.
Houston 16-7-1 “over†last 24.
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(07-Indianapolis -6' 30-24, INDIANAPOLIS -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 11-1)
BALTIMORE 16 - Tennessee 15—Kerry Collins still has occasional
nightmares about the Baltimore defense, which intercepted him four times
when Collins was with the Giants for a 34-7 Raven victory in Super Bowl XXXV.
Collins might have a touch of déjà vu, as Baltimore’s zone blitzers collected 7
sacks and 5 takeaways in allowing only 20 total points vs. Cincy & Cleveland in
Ravens’ first two home games. With 4-0 Tennessee lacking premier WRs,
Baltimore’s zone blitzers will be after Collins if they are able to keep RBs C. Johnson
& L. White under control. Will Flacco remain unflappable vs. Titan defense (8
ints.)? Balt. FB Le’Ron McClain a revelation with 152 YR first two games.
(06-Baltimore -7 27-26...SR: Baltimore 9-8)
San Diego 23 - MIAMI 20—You can be sure Miami will add a few wrinkles to
its “Wildcat†formation after six plays at New England produced four TDs in the
Dolphins’ 38-13 upset (Miami QB coach David Lee was o.c. LY at Arkansas).
Fortunately for S.D., starting LB Stephen Cooper (Chargers’ top tackler LY)
returns to action this week. However, QB Philip Rivers (sacked four times by
Raiders last week) absorbing more punishment than LY. Chad Pennington
(64%) a steadying influence on Dolphin offense.
(05-Miami +13 23-21...SR: Miami 13-12)
CAROLINA 27 - Kansas City 10—Herm Edwards is still rather limited in his
offensive options, as K.C.’s best alternative is to bang away with Larry Johnson
and hope for error-free work from vet QB Damon Huard (which Huard provided
vs. Denver...and which Tyler Thigpen could not). But doubt L.J. can puncture
the stout Carolina defensive interior as he did the less-assertive Broncos with
198 YR. It’s looking like the 2003 Super Bowl year in Charlotte, with old WR
buddies Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith reunited (14 combined recs., 2 TDs
last week), providing familiar targets for re-energized Jake Delhomme.
(04-Carolina +6' 28-17...SR: Kansas City 2-1)
PHILADELPHIA 23 - Washington 13—Jim Zorn having fine success tutoring
potential-laden young QB Jason Campbell (66%, 6 TDs, 0 ints.) and inspiring
hard-driving runs by Clinton Portis (369 YR). But coping with the Philly pass
rush (17 sacks TY) can be tough (just ask Ben Roethliesberger). Status of Brian
Westbrook (knee) unclear, but Correll Buckhalter a serviceable sub, and rookie
WR DeSean Jackson has enlivened Eagle aerial game.
(07-Was. 20-PHIL. 12...W.19-18 W.33/130 P.20/114 P.28/46/0/226 W.16/29/1/207 W.0 P.0)
(07-Phil. 33-WAS. 25...W.25-22 W.36/158 P.28/139 P.20/28/0/240 W.23/34/0/203 P.2 W.2)
(07-Washington +6' 20-12, Philadelphia +2' 33-25...SR: Washington 76-65-5)
DETROIT 23 - Chicago 20—Oh, Happy Day! That’s the tune Lions’ fans
were singing last week when lucratively-paid GM Matt Millen was fired after
Detroit was 31-84 during his tenure. The question is whether such a move will
be a positive on the field for an 0-3 team that has been outgained by more than
100 yards in each game, out-rushed 623-227 overall, out-sacked 12-3, and
outscored 63-20 in the first half. Lions could hardly be worse. However, this is
the NFL, and let’s remember Detroit swept the Bears LY, has potent weapons
at WR, and is virtually in a must-win situation to join the NFC North race.
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(07-Det. 16-CHI. 7...D.22-16 D.28/119 C.20/63 D.24/35/0/246 C.22/40/4/192 D.1 C.0)
(07-DETROIT +2' 37-27, Detroit +5 16-7...SR: Chicago 87-64-5)
GREEN BAY 17 - Atlanta 16—Things keep repeating for Atlanta, which has
beaten two troubled teams (Detroit & Kansas City) in similar fashion and lost by
exact 24-9 scores at both Tampa Bay & Carolina. Catching angry Green Bay at
Lambeau after The Pack dropped a pair would appear to put this contest more
in the Bucs-Panthers category for Falcs. But not so fast, as G.B. might have to
go with rookies Matt Flynn and/or Jeff Brohm at QB if Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder
injury is serious. If that’s the case, Atlanta can hang around, especially with HC
Mike Smith having rookie Matt Ryan throw mostly short and safe while Michael
Turner (422 YR) keeps the clock and chains moving.
(05-Green Bay +9 33-25...SR: Green Bay 13-11)
NY GIANTS 33 - Seattle 17—Bye week came at a nice time for Seattle, which
is getting a bit healthier on offense and fortified depleted WR crew with recent
additions of vets Keary Colbert & Koren Robinson. But Seahawks likely to catch
a focused N.Y. team after uncharacteristic flat effort that nearly cost G-Men in
last outing vs. Cincy, not to mention N.Y.’s chance to stay ahead of Dallas in
ultra-tough NFC East. D.c. Steve Spagnuolo’s sack-happy Giant defense has
a rather stationary target in Matt Hasselbeck. N.Y. has covered 10 of last 12
overall. Totals note—Both teams trending “over†lately (Giants “over†7-3 at
Meadowlands; Seattle “over†20-7-1 last 28 as visitor).
(06-SEATTLE -3' 42-30...SR: NY Giants 7-5)
DALLAS 30 - Cincinnati 13—Carson Palmer’s elbow expected to be okay.
Even so, it’s hard to count on the poorly-balanced Cincy offense producing only
13 ppg vs. the improved Cowboy defense. Dallas underestimated Washington
last week. But another T.O. tirade is indicative that a similar occurrence unlikely
this week. Huge rush edge owned by RBs MB III and Felix Jones should make
play-action easy for Tony Romo and get winless Bengals to playing from behind
early. (04-CINCINNATI +1 26-3...SR: Dallas 5-4)
*JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 13—Jags have won last four meetings,
including LY’s controversial playoff victory in Pittsburgh. And, while
Jacksonville has plugged the early holes in its OL, the Jags now catch the
Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger nursing a sore shoulder, RB Willie Parker on
the shelf, and two starters out on Pittsburgh DL. Moreover, the Steeler OL was
overwhelmed in its last road game, giving up nine sacks in a 15-6 loss at Philly.
The healthier, more nimble David Garrard (7 for 41 rushing last week) could be
the difference. TV—NBC
(07-Jack. 29-PITT 22...J.25-13 J.42/225 P.17/111 J.17/33/1/197 P.16/33/0/106 J.0 P.0)
(07-Jack. 31-PITT 29...P.24-14 J.29/135 P.26/43 P.29/42/3/297 J.9/21/2/104 J.0 P.1)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 29-22, Jacksonville -2' 31-29 (Playoffs)...SR: Jacksonville 12-8)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24—CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;
torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense
recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce
McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4
ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his
left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson
(420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise.
Minny used to dome conditions. Saints “over†17 of last 23. CABLE TV—ESPN
(05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:12pm -
0 likes
THE SPORTS REPORTER - NCAA
SUPER BEST BET
RUTGERS over *WEST VIRGINIA by 8
‘Oh, Rutgers is terrible this season. Oh, they never beat West Virginia. Oh, the coach is
overrated and should be fired!’ It’s true that Rutgers was 0-3 SU and ATS this season
prior to FCS patsy-to-order Morgan State. It’s also true that Rutgers is 0-8 SU vs. West
Virginia in the new millennium. And now, for something completely different: You know
we’ve been wishing, hoping praying for Rutgers to look as bad as they could possibly
look until Big East season began. Ding-ding-ding. The bell has rung. A year ago, Rutgers
was pretty primed to tackle the Mountaineers. But when bad weather hit and grounded
Rutgers’ passing game, West Virginia, with the aid of +4 turnovers, raced away from
them in the mud. West Virginia made only 15 first downs in that game and had to punt
five times. They weren’t completely dominant, as the scoreboard might have suggested
at 31-3. Rutgers’ QB Mike Teel played the game with a bruised throwing hand. Now a
senior, it’s his last shot at West Virginia, in the first 2008 game that matters for Rutgers’
BCS Bowl chances. He has receivers that can motor on the edges. West Virginia’s newface
defense is looking friendly to a familiar foe, and Rutgers’ running game should experience
a revival after a sluggish start. Rutgers’ defense is small up front but quicker than
in the recent past, the better to contain a run-laden, unbalanced West Virginia offense.
‘Oh, our coach is terrible. He should be fired.We never lose to Rutgers!’ Can you already
hear it coming from around the other corner? RUTGERS, 27-19.
BEST BET
*GEORGIA TECH over DUKE by 26
When many of Georgia Tech’s current coaches were with Navy, Duke was 0-4 SU, 1-3
ATS vs. Navy. Duke managed to finally beat Navy this season -- when Paul Johnson and
his henchmen were in Atlanta with Tech, and Navy’s defense was the worst of the five
seasons. But Duke had to score 41 points to win that game. Will Duke be scoring 41
points against Georgia Tech’s defense? Probably not. Can Georgia Tech’s offense score
41 points against Duke’s defense? Probably. Johnson’s last three Navy teams got 35, 49
and 41 against it and Georgia Tech’s version of the Navy offense is executed with bigger
and faster players. Visiting Coach Cutcliffe and his SEC-to-the-NFL minded crew of assistants
know not of the triple-option. When they beat Navy last month, the Navy offense
accumulated 396 yards and 31 points with only 27:40 of ball possession. With Georgia
Tech off a bye week, to face a familiar opponent, and with FCS-yawner Gardner Webb on
deck, Johnson figures to have his team rested and ready for the ACC home opener.
GEORGIA TECH, 41-15.
BEST BET
*MIAMI-OH over TEMPLE by 20
Temple is the fat mouse, 3-1-1 ATS but trying to survive with a young team and an
absent #1 quarterback. Miami-OH is the starving cat, 0-3 SU in streetfights against SEC,
Big Ten and Big East opponents. Who wins this encounter? If Miami-OH’s coaches want
to work in the same place next season, then they’d better win it, and leave no doubt in
the process. “Hey, we lost to Temple last season. We lost our last game by 25 points to
an in-state rival. We beat Charleston Southern, whoop-dee-damn doo. We’re off a bye
week while Temple was fighting tooth and nail for 60 minutes, showing us how they can’t
dent the end zone. Our Athletic Director is not stupid, he’ll probably be aware of all this.
Ya’ think maybe we’d better prepare these kids for a serious effort in our first MAC game
this year?†The name Daniel Raudabaugh is an ugly reminder of losses past with Miami-
OH. But if you live in fear of past defeats, you can miss future opportunities. Western
Michigan’s head coach was giving props to Temple’s great run defense last Saturday.
Let’s call Bill Cubit’s bluff and say that his team just can’t run the ball. MIAMI-OH, 23-3.
BEST BET
MISSOURI over *NEBRASKA by 21
Mizzou hasn’t won in Lincoln since 1978 and QB Chase Daniel knows how tough it is to
deal with the Red Sea. During his team’s bye week, of the challenge Daniel stated that
“we’ll be prepared for it this time.†He directs on offense that is jam-packed with playmakers
who are experienced in the system – a deadly combination. One anonymous
coach who played the Huskers early in the year had this to say about Nebraska’s
defense, “On defense, I wasn't that impressed. They are big up front, but there isn't much
of a pass rush. Bo is trying to scheme them up. He's a big schemer…I think this defense
will struggle to play in space.†That’s exactly the type of defense that Missouri will throttle.
An added wrinkle to the Tiger assault is a running game that will keep Pelini from an
all-out assault on the QB. Patience will be required given the Tigers propensity to give up
the big play, but one cannot live on a few big pass plays alone when getting it handed to
them on the other side of the ball. MISSOURI, 48-27.
BEST BET
*COLORADO over TEXAS by 1
The Horns roll into a Boulder fresh off of four Texas-sized whoopings. CU heads home
after giving up 39 to offensively challenged FSU in Jacksonville. Head Buff Hawkins is
smiling because he knows that the Texas game at home is much larger than a non-conference
loss half a world away. Mack Brown’s group is tough; at least we think they are.
They have yet to play a team that can run the football and challenge their front seven.
CU will do just that. When UT cheats up to stop the ground attack, QB Hawkins’ playaction
will open up a young secondary that’ll be chasing rather than making plays. This
is exactly the spot where Colorado got Oklahoma last year – in Folsom Field with the Red
River Rivalry the following week. History repeats itself. COLORADO, 27-26.
BEST BET
*OKLAHOMA STATE over TEXAS A&M by 35
Okie St. will play the role of John Daly…A&M the role of golf ball. Mike Sherman’s anemic
offense put up 291 yards and 14 points (one defensive TD) at home against Army
athletes. If they put up those numbers in Stillwater it’ll be due to garbage time after Mike
Gundy’s third-teamers are in the game. The Cowboys offense has proven lethal at home
and will have no problem doing their best impression of a Ginsu knife – slicing and dicing
while remaining sharp for four quarters. If Miami-FL can put up 40+ on you, 50+ is
not out of the question when facing a dynamic offense on their home turf. Okie St. can
throw it and run it, meaning that the scoring parade should continue until the final bell.
Gundy’s crew is hiding in the shadows cast by the other Big 12 media grabbers and that
is just fine by us because these kids are good. OKLAHOMA STATE, 48-13.
BEST BET
OHIO STATE over *WISCONSIN by 15
Wisky may need counseling after giving up a 19-0 halftime lead vs. Michigan last week.
Head coach Bielema used words like “disheartening†to describe the loss. No time to
pout because the Buckeyes aren’t good listeners and have their own agenda – restore
the reputation they lost in SoCal. True freshman QB Tyrell Prior has road game experience
and will benefit from a healthy Beanie Wells. Pryor adds a dimension to the offense
that will keep the Badgers defense off-balance, and Wells looked good in limited action.
Due to some issues with the vet o-line, Jim Tressel named himself an assistant offensive
line coach to motivate the players and the staff. The home team must be able to run the
football in order to open up the pass. They’ll have some success with tight end Beckum
– but the Buckeye run defense is only giving up about 90 rush yards per game and will
make noodle-armed QB Everidge chuck it to win it. That’s not his game and it’ll show on
Saturday. OHIO STATE, 25-10.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1
*BOISE STATE over LOUISIANA TECH by 20
Louisiana Tech’s defense must be respected. But the not-ready-for-prime-time offense
makes wagering on them just a little too stressful. If the so-so QB makes one lame-armed
mistake on the smurf turf, they lose any and all momentum that Boise often turns early and
keeps until it’s too late to matter for the other side. BOISE STATE, 30-10.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2
*SOUTH FLORIDA over PITTSBURGH by 8
Watchin’ the Wannies! Always entertaining, for the game’s potential to be either a headscratching
train wreck for Pitt, or the coach’s and his team’s ability to somehow adhere to
the determined, common blueprint and live to fight another week, climbing towards the
always entertaining crash near the finish.Wannstedt wants his o-line and two very good running
backs to control the game by blowing away the South Florida defensive line. They might.
And they might better this rating. South Florida is overrated and Wannstedt is a better coach
than anyone betting on the game would be. SOUTH FLORIDA, 28-20.
MEMPHIS over *UAB by 4
Memphis’ defense is thin on linebackers, long on athletes learning to play DB. But their QB
Arkelon Hall has 6’3â€, 6’4†and 6’8†starting receivers and completed 29 and 28 passes
against the first two C-USA defenses he faced, Rice and Marshall. UAB coach Calloway likes
how his defense has played vs. the run, but they’ve given up way too many third-down completions,
as attested by an opposing third-down conversion rate of 49%. MEMPHIS, 31-27.
*UTAH over OREGON STATE by 11
OSU’s outright win as 25-point dogs vs. then #1-ranked USC only gives a perpetually unprepared
road team farther to fall, exposes their running back Rogers as somebody to contain,
and serves to heighten the Utah focus for revenge. The Utes’ key offensive skill players got
carted off the field left and right during the September, ‘07 loss at Corvallis. Coming off FCS
Weber State gave them an opportunity to manage bodies and win while essentially scrimmaging
last Saturday, in advance of this important non-conference game. UTAH, 31-20.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3
CINCINNATI over *MARSHALL by 1
Got no problem with the home pup in a point-to game when the Marshall plan includes having
Cincinnati’s long-time fired head coach as their defensive coordinator, working overtime
to right the perceived wrong from five years ago (“10 years, I gave those sons of b-----s!â€)
while in receipt of an edge as Cincinnati plays second straight non-conference road game
traveling off a short week, forced to use its diminishing-returns third choice at quarterback.
Sweat, Cincinnati, sweat. The goalposts are nervous, too. CINCINNATI, 23-22.
BYU over *UTAH STATE by 29
Cougars have outscored the last two patsies 103-0 and they’ll add to that this week. The
media is pulling QB Max Hall in all directions, but coach Mendenhall is protecting his star.
Still, you can’t expect the focus to be 100% on the Aggies. Utah St. is an improved bunch and
their new QB can create with his wheels. It won’t be nearly enough, but covering a number
that will be in the 4 TD range is definitely doable. BYU, 39-11.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4
BOSTON COLLEGE over *NORTH CAROLINA STATE by 1
Hang the ‘Beware of Home Dog’ sign on the fence. As expected, NC State tossed three interceptions
against a turnover-getting opponent last Saturday. Harrison Beck is horrible, a 12th
man for the other side. But what if the Wolfpack coaches – all of them ex-Boston Collegestring-pullers for a long, long time -- were playing possum and saving Russell (“Oh, I’m
Injured?) Wilson for this re-try against a BC team that Beck blew it all against last season
with 6 turnovers? Never expect “last week†to be repeated if the coaches might be prioritizing
and manipulating other options. BOSTON COLLEGE, 17-16.
PENN STATE over *PURDUE by 14
Purdue’s offense might be able to keep them in it for a while, but they’ll have to bring their
“A†game because the defense posts “Fs†on their report card. They were 89th vs. the pass
going into the Notre Dame game and allowed frequently woeful Domer QB Clausen to get his
career high. PSU’s offense is far more dynamic than Notre Dame’s and should find plenty of
lush green grass. PENN STATE, 34-20.
*MICHIGAN STATE over IOWA by 3
Michigan State’s offense – Ringer right, left, up the middle plus Hoyer scatter-arming it and
praying for either a pass interference call or that his pass isn’t picked -- won’t do anything
that Iowa’s defense can’t handle well enough to be staying in this thing all the way. Iowa’s
offense will attempt to overcome its own shortcomings by rolling out the QBs, hammering
their big tailback between the tackles, executing well, managing the clock and a springing a
surprise somewhere along the line. Whoever blinks first loses … the bet vs. the spread.
MICHIGAN STATE, 22-19.
*MINNESOTA over INDIANA by 12
If Indiana’s #1 QB Kellen Lewis’ leg is still bad, then the Hoosiers lose his versatility and
everything else becomes easier to contain, which makes undisciplined Indiana take penalties
and commit turnovers. In Lewis’ absence, they go to the Chappel, and you’re not gonna
want to be married to Indiana. Their defense can’t stop anything that moves, and Minnesota’s
defense – unlike the Michigan State mopes who allowed some big plays – practices against
the kind of offense Indiana plays. What was available and gained by the Hoosiers last
Saturday will not be as readily realized this Saturday. MINNESOTA, 35-23.
MARYLAND over *VIRGINA by 15
UVA hit a 3 to tie Duke at the half only to throw up bricks in a scoreless second half. Al Groh
trots out his third-string QB at home in an out-scoring situation against the surging Terps.
Trouble is, unless Maryland’s offense spends the last three quarters in the showers, Cavs
aren’t outscoring anybody. After a series of beat downs – how much do the Virginia coaches
and players have left in the tank? Probably about as much as the residents of Atlanta.
MARYLAND, 28-13.
*NORTH CAROLINA over CONNECTICUT by 4
UConn’s aggressive D is capable of surprising and hurting bettors who play against them.
The Huskies won’t miss injured QB Tyler Lorenzen’s numbers, but can back-up Zach Frazer
at least step in and not screw it up? UConn coach Edsall might want to seek a reprieve for
overworked tailback Brown, but does anything else exist? Meanwhile, his defense will gladly
take away the wideouts and subject itself to pounding from Tar Heels’ big tailback Greg
Little. NORTH CAROLINA, 20-16.
SOUTH CAROLINA over *MISSISSIPPI by 1
Colonel Reb will get respect from the desert after knocking off Florida in the Swamp. This
one could be dangerous for Ole Miss backers, ‘cause Spurrier has a nasty defense that likes
to match up with big offensive lines and less-than-mobile QBs. That sounds a lot like Houston
Nutt’s squad. Nutt’s QB Snead hasn’t proven that he can’t go 60 minutes without making
several bad mistakes and the South Carolina defense is an opportunistic group. Gamecock
QB Garcia gives the offense a dynamic edge that should keep the home town defense at bay.
He’s got good legs and a stronger downfield arm than the other options. SOUTH CAROLINA,
17-16.
TEXAS TECH over *KANSAS STATE by 4
The Wildcats defense is getting gashed – giving up 500+ yards in the past two games. Texas
Tech ain’t the cure for an ailing defense and Ron Prince knows it. Look for him to put the ball
in the hands of QB Josh Freeman to attack a Red Raider defense that is young and under the
direction of a first year defensive coordinator. Mike Leach’s team is off of a bye and QB
Harrell, his o-line, and the skill guys have plenty of experience playing Big 12 road games.
TEXAS TECH, 35-31.
KANSAS over *IOWA STATE by 18
Given the disparity in offensive capabilities, KU head coach Mangino can fly over Ames with
a broom and spell out “Surrender, Chizik†by early in the second half. Iowa State will attempt
to make KU drive the field, and they will. KANSAS, 31-13.
*AUBURN over VANDERBILT by 10
Take a picture of the USA Today top 25 rankings Vandy fans, because it’s not gonna last past
Saturday. The Commodores offense doesn’t match-up well with the Auburn defense. The
Tigers D is build on speed and will keep the fleet-footed QB Nickson from doing damage with
his feet. That is if Nickson plays. He hurt his shoulder vs. Ole Miss and may be sidelined.
Nickson isn’t much of a downfield passer and neither is his backup. Look for Auburn to use
Kodi Burns a bit more at QB to keep the defense from keying on the RBs. AUBURN, 20-10.
UNLV over *COLORADO STATE by 4
Colorado State’s house of cards is on the way down. UNLV? Probably an upside there. Last
Saturday’s Best Bet winner against them, vs. intra-state rival and nemesis Nevada, came at
a bad time for the Runnin’ Rebs on the heels of the Arizona State upset, and a very underthe-
radar hateful revenge score vs. an Iowa State team that cheated them when nobody was
looking in 2006. Most opponents figure to drive the field at will vs. CSU’s defense, and UNLV
is built to drive the field with a 230-pound running back and a QB who can scamper as well
as get it to veteran receivers well enough (12-1 TD-INT, 7.4 ypa). Punts and place-kicks by
Colorado State are adventures you do not want to sign up for. UNLV, 21-17.
OHIO over *WESTERN MICHIGAN by 1
Dink-and-dunk passing teams (WMU) against small, quick defenses (Ohio U.) will often take
the worst of it in the match-up, or at least fail to gain any edges. "I really like the make-up
of our personnel on defense. Our speed and athletic ability is really starting to show," says
Bobcats head coach Solich, which is bad news for auto-piloting WMU QB Hiller. Ohio’s special
teams salivate about Western’s nervous freshmen kicker and punter. Meanwhile,
Western’s defense wins no awards for keeping Temple out of the end zone when Temple was
employing the paper boy as its quarterback. OHIO, 18-17.
*NOTRE DAME over STANFORD by 8
Both of these teams come of offensive anomaly-type games against defensive lightweights,
but things won’t be quite so easy this week. Stanford’s run defense is decent and they
shouldn’t have to stack the box to contain an under-performing ND run game. They’ll make
QB Claussen and his fresh haircut beat ‘em down the field, but the much maligned signal
caller and his WR corps have improved. As for the Cardinal, looks like starting RB Gerhart is
out with an injury, which takes some of the physicality out of the team. That brute strength
would be helpful on the road and they won’t win this pillow fight in South Bend. NOTRE
DAME, 28-20.
*TULANE over ARMY by 20
You had a sense that the world hadn’t changed so much where Tulane should be a –17
favorite and cover (vs. SMU, and they didn’t). But if the world is still essentially the same as
it has been, then this particular Army group shouldn’t cover twice in a row after needing a
trip to the spawning grounds (the state of Texas) to start executing. Which would make Tulane
covering three scores just business as usual against any kind of earth-shattering news.
TULANE, 27-7.
ILLINOIS over *MICHIGAN over by 1
Defense is the glue holding Michigan together and will not let them down until later in the
season, when they’ve been overworked. But at only 64 plays per game, Michigan’s offense
currently requires the defense to step up and be there at all times. At least Illinois has been
using its own version of this offense for a few years. At 73 plays per game, they are obviously
more comfortable in it. But the Juice is sometimes a little too comfortable and can be
squeezed and picked. ILLINOIS, 20-19.
*MIAMI-FL over FLORIDA STATE by 3
The offenses in this rivalry battle will be about as successful as Jabba the Hutt picking up
girls in South Beach. Hard to say that FSU is a one-dimensional offense because neither
aspect is very good. The QB’s are 22-of-58 against D1-A and the running game generally
lacks bite. Miami looks a bit more consistent, but they are not asking QB Marve to do anything
tricky. He completed 22 passes vs. UNC, but for less than 8 yards per completion. He
looks better than his North Florida counterpart and with the home field, we’ll tilt the edge to
the Canes. MIAMI, 17-14.
*CALIFORNIA over ARIZONA STATE by 4
Opportunity for the Devils to fork Cal, as Bear RB Best dislocated his elbow last week and
the QB situation again looks unstable. ASU used the bye week to improve a paltry running
game and they may get their best back Keegan Herring back from a hammy. The o-line will
struggle against a stout Cal front seven and for that reason it’s tough to call the outright
upset. Look for ASU QB Carpenter to become one with the turf in what should be a solid Pac-
10 clash. CALIFORNIA, 27-23.
FLORIDA over *ARKANSAS by 28
The last thing Arkansas coach Petrino wanted to hear after a 52-10 loss to Texas was Florida
QB Tim Tebow saying, “You have never seen any player in the entire country play as hard as
I will play the rest of the season.†Coupled with Urban Meyer’s ego, it looks like another bad
loss for the mistake-prone, hapless Hogs. The Gator defense will ground the Arkansas ground
game, leaving the head hunters to go after the QB and the football. The offense has far too
much speed for a defense that excels at giving up huge plays. FLORIDA 45-17.
*ALABAMA over KENTUCKY by 14
The Bama offensive front exerts its will when motivated. Can’t expect the intensity to be
Game Day, blackout, prime time like it was in Athens, GA last week. Kentucky’s defense is
tough, but is a bit banged up. They’ll keep the team in the game for a few quarters, but after
the offense continues to bang into the brick wall that is the Tide defensive front without much
production, the defense will tire of holding up their end of the bargain. If the bluegrass Cats
can’t pressure Alabama QB JP Wilson, they have no shot at the upset. ALABAMA, 27-13.
*CENTRAL FLORIDA over SMU by 16
How can a poor passing team like Central Florida create a scoreboard gap against an opponent
that will throw on 70% of its offensive plays? By snapping the ball at the last second
before running through the swiss cheese defense, and by scoring special teams and defensive
touchdowns. CENTRAL FLORIDA, 33-17.
*BOWLING GREEN over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 24
If the EMUs have anything to recommend, then they’ve done a great job hiding it so far.
Bowling Green comes down from the mountains of Wyoming with a fresh new package of
red blood cells in their system, kind of like a legal blood-doping situation for the MAC opener
on home field. The Bee Gees scored 39 points in only 24 minutes of offensive possession
against EMU last season in a weird, Friday night travel situation. Take away the fumble recovered
in the end zone and it was still 32 points in 24 minutes. BOWLING GREEN, 41-17.
*AIR FORCE over NAVY by 1
Navy’s defense is a little quicker than the Air Force plodders and that might be the eventual
key. These teams cover against everybody else that can’t prepare well enough for the
flexbones and triple options, but when it comes to playing each other, there isn’t much that
stands out about one side or the other. AIR FORCE, 30-29.
NEVADA over *IDAHO by 20
After getting posterized for 42 and 45 points against Utah St. and San Diego State – Idaho
now welcomes an offense led by a Vince Young look-a-like in Colin Kaepernick. Bottom line
is that the Vandals must ball control with the run game for two reasons: (1) Keeps defense
off field. (2) Keeps their QB from having to throw the football. They’ll have some success on
the ground at home, but turnovers and bad defense won’t win you too many ball games.
NEVADA, 43-23.
*TCU over SAN DIEGO STATE by 24
After spending a few hours under Oklahoma’s bus, TCU gets back to driving their own car
this week. The Horned Frogs will play ball control with the offense, hitting a few big plays
here and there vs. a suspect defensive 11. As noted in a Best Bet Midweek selection last
week, SDSU went to the air to paste Idaho and will look to do the same for the rest of the
season. The Sooners hit for 21.5 yards per completion against Gary Patterson’s crew, but the
Aztecs don’t have that kind of personnel and Patterson learned a thing or two last Saturday.
“It was my fault, I blitzed too much,†stated Patterson. He’ll force redshirt freshman Lindley
to make tight throws this week, which is tough for a youngster on the road. TCU, 34-10.
*UCLA over WASHINGTON STATE by 14
Bruins compete when they can run the ball and the Cougars – well – they just don’t compete.
WSU gave up 6.9 ypc against Oregon last week, TDs on 9 of 13 drives. UCLA doesn’t
have the offensive horses to match those numbers, but they’ll be happy with half that level
of success. The visitors’ QB is making his first road start of his career against a pressuring
defensive front that likes to bring heat. UCLA, 27-13.
*ARIZONA over WASHINGTON by 20
Don’t expect ‘Zona coach Stoops to feel bad for Ty Willingham and his pending pink slip.
Stoops is fighting for his own survival and mentioned this week that they need to “come out
swingingâ€. Knocking out the glass-jawed Huskies should not be tough after Stanford softened
them up by breaking QB Locker’s hand last week. Wildcat QB Tuitama will be purring
comfortably against a defense that appears to enjoy giving up huge plays. ARIZONA, 34-14.
*TENNESSEE over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 21
While Tennessee’s head coach doesn’t know which direction this MAC visitor is coming from,
his four new offensive assistants will work overtime in the wake of a third defeat in four
games, or risk being blamed for it all and fired after only a short tenure in Knoxville under
Prince Philip, who is simmering: ‘Ol Miss got 31 points against Florida and we got only six?!!’
NIU, off the happy-rout of hapless Eastern Mich, figures to maximize its travel miles by
exposing many reserves to action while pocketing the big paycheck and protecting the
$tarters, who will avoid as much contact as possible and live to fight another day. TENNESSEE,
34-13.
BALL STATE over *TOLEDO by 7
The Feds might want to review last Saturday’s FIU game tape to see if Toledo is still shaving
points. If they’re on the level, then they’d better learn to hang onto the football because the
Ball boys are pretty good at taking it away from careless young fellas. The visitors are also
good at driving the field with balanced offense, scoring against MAC defenses, and, in a nod
to the coaching staff’s consistently strong preparation, are 12-3 ATS on the road. BALL
STATE, 34-27.
*KENT STATE over AKRON by 1
A big MAC attack only in the sense that both offenses have ingredients that cause stomach
cramps. If RB Eugene Jarvis is still out for the Kent State side that is over-reliant upon his little
scampers, then Kent backers might eventually be doubled over in pain unless their
defense can induce coughing from Akron’s alleged QB Jacquemain. KENT STATE, 20-19.
*SOUTHERN MISS over UTEP by 2
Wily UTEP head coach Mike Price isn’t about to let some first-season Big 12 yahoo forcing a
spread offense on a between-the-tackles running team outscore his multi-season system.
His new 3-3-5 defense has been out there enough times to represent trouble for Southern
Miss’ quarterback, for whom non-conference season was mere euphoria. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI,
31-29.
OKLAHOMA over *BAYLOR by 25
Could be tough for Stoops to get his fellas up for this conference roadie against a historical
conference doormat. They pounded TCU in a revenge game last week and have Texas on the
horizon. Sooners have too much firepower to drop this one straight up, but Baylor QB Griffen
is athletic as anybody on the other side of the ball and could cause trouble for the nation’s
#1. Baylor is off of a bye and improves under first-year coach Briles with every passing day.
After getting only 38 rushing yards last week, Stoops will keep the ball on the ground as a
tune-up and to keep his QB fresh for next week. OKLAHOMA, 45-20.
*TULSA over RICE by 16
Rice racked up 700 offensive yards against Tulsa’s defense last season as if they had practiced
against it. And, they had, because Tulsa’s head coach and defensive assistants were
Rice’s head coach and defensive assistants the year before. Rice still lost that game, 48-43,
and Tulsa’s running game is now more balanced than the offense that went for 151-441
Rush-Pass vs. Rice a year ago. TULSA, 41-25.
*USC over OREGON by 17
Stop the Oregon rushing attack and you stop Oregon. The Trojans are built to do just that.
Duck coach Belotti is on his fourth/fifth string QB’s and would love to hand it off every play.
He could and did against Washington State. He might but can’t against USC. Probably not the
best time to be playing in the backyard of ticked-off talent. USC, 30-13.
*NEW MEXICO over WYOMING by 9
Fans of spread passing attacks close your eyes. You might see 100 running plays in this one.
The Lobos lost starting QB Porterie to injury and have turned to a redshirt freshman, who is
asked to take the snap and place in comfortably into the running backs belly. They ran it 63
times to 16 passes last week in a win. Wyoming played four QB’s in a loss that saw them
increase their turnover total to 16 in three losses. Ya think ball security is the agenda for this
week? Despite what is certain to be a low-40’s total, think graveyard and be an UNDER-taker.
NEW MEXICO, 21-12.
*FRESNO STATE over HAWAII by 23
If Hawaii can’t win at home after giving up only 237 yards to San Jose St., you can’t expect
much from the islanders on the mainland this week. Fresno is experienced and balanced on
offense and will enjoy this “Sunday drive†after battling LA traffic in three straight tight
games. Now that an undefeated season has gone the way of the dodo for Fresno, don’t
expect an in-conference letdown that would blow-up their next-best goal – the WAC title.
FRESNO STATE, 37-14.
*VIRGINIA TECH over WESTERN KENTUCKY by 27
Hokies will do what they do – run the football and play defense. It worked for Kentucky and
Alabama and big wins vs. WKU, who just can’t matchup at this point in their young D1-A
career. Their spread offense can create space against lesser opponents, but Vtech’s third
string defense is better than the visitor’s first team. VIRGINIA TECH, 34-7.
*LOUISIANA-MONROE over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 1
The Lafalots’ team-killing passer Michael Desormeaux has yet to play against the
Monrovians. Desormeaux’s side has double-revenge. If they can string enough rushing yards
together (335 per game this season) against the Monrovian matadors without putting it on
the ground, then the road dog won’t have to ask him to pass the ball and risk shooting his
teammates in the head again. UL-MONROE, 28-27.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL over *NORTH TEXAS by 3
Only one team in the world has revenge against Florida International this season. That would
be the North Texas crew, for whom FIU had two weeks to ready the kitchen sink in the season
finale last year, when North Texas entered down and very dirty at 2-9 SU. FIU’s quarterbacks
have played against good defenses to date, but 46% completions? Ewww. North Texas
QB, the Vizza Man, is no bargain but North Texas has more experience at tanking non-conference
games by big scores, and then flipping the switch for Sun Belt season. FLORIDA
INTERNATIONAL, 26-23.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7
TROY over *FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 4
Say goodnight to the Flying Schnellenbergers. Troy has had this one circled since last
November, when FAU was our Best Bet +10 outright winner in what amounted to the Sun
Belt title game. As noted in last week’s issue, Troy would be at Oklahoma State last Saturday
in body, with spirit listed as “doubtful.†Spirit is now “probable†for this trip. TROY, 28-24.
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:12pm -
0 likes
THE SPORTS REPORTER - NFL
BEST BET
ATLANTA over *GREEN BAY by 4
The Packers are enduring a tough time right now as AJ Hawk is dealing with a groin
injury and Al Harris is done for several weeks, if not the season, with a busted spleen. On
offense, new quarterback Aaron Rodgers is dealing with nagging injuries to his back and
shoulder, including a potentially dislocated throwing shoulder. There is a good chance
that Rodgers will be either hampered for this game, or miss it, which would test the
chemistry of an offense that was on the verge of truly coming together with Ryan Grant
healing up and the Rodgers-to-Greg Jennings combo becoming an every week threat.
Now the young, but feisty, Falcons travel to Lambeau Field with the chance to steal a
game on the road against one of the “better†teams in the conference that we’ve felt was
kind of fake all along anyway. Green Bay’s run defense has been horrendous, allowing
over 150 yards per game on the ground. The Atlanta game-plan should be centered
around exploiting that weakness. Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood form a potent
combination of power running and speed at the edges that will be instrumental in attacking
a weak Packers defensive front seven and easing the pressure of rookie franchise
quarterback, Matt Ryan. If the running game can force the Packers to play close to the
line of scrimmage, Ryan has the poise to find Roddy White as his big-play threat among
a group of back-up Green Bay corners. The Packers had everything go right for them last
season and even in the first two games of ’08. But the NFL has a way of leveling things
off and setting up “good†teams to be exploited. ATLANTA 20-16.
BEST BET
TAMPA BAY over *DENVER by 7
Layin’ points with that Denver defense, which hasn’t made a key stop since Hector was
a pup? Good luck to ya. Bucs’ head coach Jon Gruden hasn’t prioritized non-conference
road games and is 1-7 ATS in them since 2004, for anyone ATS logging at home. But
that’s part of the smokescreen for this particular match-up. Sure, the Bucs have NFC
South foe Carolina on deck. But the Panthers are hosting the Chiefs this Sunday, which
makes Carolina a good bet to be 4-1 when this game kicks off. With the New York Giants,
Dallas and Washington also 3-1, playoff spots might start to dry up early if teams with
winning records do not keep winning. Mike Shanahan is on the other sideline, and that
gets Gruden’s attention from when they squared off when Gruden coached the Raiders.
Playing in Denver also gets the attention of Bucs’ starting quarterback Brian Griese, who
was booed out of the place and returns as the Broncos’ defense is trying to stop moving
backwards all the time. The Bucs’ offense was logging more offensive plays per game
than anybody else in the NFL prior to facing Green Bay last Sunday (68), then went out
and logged 71 against the Packers, for 36 minutes of clock time. Denver QB Jay Cutler
is good for a few picks against a Cover-2 defense. Hey, he tossed two into the Chiefs’
Cover-2 last Sunday. TAMPA BAY, 27-20.
BEST BET
*ARIZONA over BUFFALO by 14
The Bills venture to the West Coast in a second consecutive non-conference road game
vs. an NFC West opponent. The Bills are already playing their third non-conference game
through five weeks and while they didn’t encounter much resistance while throttling
Seattle and St. Louis, perspective must be maintained. After all, the opening week
Seahawks had a rotating cast of no-names playing wide receiver and the Rams have
played like the worst team in the NFL. The wins were a big boost to an emerging franchise,
but Arizona, despite their own meltdown against Gang Green, are a better team
than their two divisional competitors. With the Bills riding high after starting the season
4-0 and Arizona looking weak after dropping two straight road losses, now is the time
for the smart investor to buy low and bet against the hype. The Bills will be traveling close
to 6,000 miles in the two weeks preceding this game and will be dealing with a knee
injury to their best cornerback, Terrence McGee. Arizona may or may not have Anquan
Boldin, after he suffered an ugly helmet-to-helmet hit against the Jets, but Larry
Fitzgerald will prove to be a complete mismatch against whichever cornerback lines up
against him – Ashton Youboty or Leodis McKelvin. Look for the home team to be rejuvenated
and regain some measure of pride after two desultory efforts. ARIZONA 28-14.
RECOMMENDED
*NY GIANTS over SEATTLE by 15
Seahawks’ head coach Mike Holmgren is a well-known schedule and standings cheat.
When it is imperative for Seattle to play, they play as well as they can play. When it isn’t
imperative for them to play as well as they can play, they play worse than their best and
point to the prioritized affairs. Holmgren’s team is 1-2. With a chance to tie 2-2 Arizona
and 2-2 San Francisco in the NFC West standings, it’s kind of imperative to play, but not
a drop-dead, must-have game because the Seahawks have Green Bay home on deck,
San Francisco and Arizona are loser-laden division rivals who play basically the same
tough schedule as the Seahawks face, and St. Louis barely exists. Giants dangerous
receiving weapon Plaxico Burress has been suspended for this game, and we ain’t fallin’
into the trap of expecting the Giants to fall apart just because the guy who caught the
Super Bowl-winning TD pass won’t be on the field. The Seahawks would need more than
the bye week preceding this to figure out how to protect Matt Hasselbeck from getting
torn in pieces by the Giants’ defense. If they are getting their best receivers like Engram
and Branch back after the bye after they’ve been injured and out so far, all the more reason
for the passing game to still be rusty and the offense prone to being pressured and
picked. The Seahawks’ offense isn’t gonna see the ball much anyway, unless their overrated
defense takes it away from Giants’ RB Brandon Jacobs. NY GIANTS, 28-13.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5
INDIANAPOLIS over *HOUSTON by 2
Peyton Manning and the Colts have to hope that the bye week fixed what ails them because
after this week’s tilt with the Houston Texans, the schedule becomes considerably more difficult.
A home game against Baltimore is followed by consecutive road games against the
Packers and Titans, with games against the Patriots and Steelers lying in wait. If the Colts
can’t get their line issues straightened out, this could be a very bumpy season. Jeff
Saturday’s return should give the offensive line some kind of consistency with the running
game improving in turn. Too often, the Colts have given Joseph Addai no room to run, putting
more pressure on a rusty Manning to carry the offense. More recovery time for an injured
offensive line can only make the Indy offense more consistent. However, the run defense
remains suspect due to a thin defensive line and Bob Sanders once again being out with
injury. New Houston tailback Steve Slaton, with his running and receiving skills, will be
expected to put up a big game in this home outing – the Texans will need it if they hope to
stay in this one. The Colts have handled the Texans pretty well over the years and the added
benefit of having the bye week should ensure that Indy wins their second game and returns
to .500 – an accomplishment that travels further and further out of sight for Houston as they
keep falling on their face against divisional opponents. INDIANAPOLIS 27-25.
TENNESSEE over *BALTIMORE by 6
Titans’ dominant d-lineman Albert Haynesworth and his buddies might munch on a Flacco
Joe sandwich for Sunday brunch here. As stated several times, Baltimore, against a good
defense, does not stand out as a profitable prospect vs. the spread. But they have their own
good defense and they might force Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins to do bad things, as
many as Flacco Joe will do if the Ravens – off one of their two annual auto-grudge matches
vs. Pittsburgh on Monday Night -- cannot dent the Titans on the ground. When Collins sees
the Ravens’ helmets and colors, and Ray Lewis across from him at the line of scrimmage,
he will have flashbacks and day sweats about the 2000 Super Bowl, when Baltimore’s
defense did everything but yank his pants down and spank him in front of millions. A huge
game from Collins is highly unlikely, but the Titans are becoming Baltimore, Jr., winning
through intimidation and depth on the defensive front seven, which makes business easier
for the secondary. Both defenses are allowing low rushing yardage per game. When offenses
cannot run, they usually cannot pass well either, which makes for a low score unless
defense and/or special teams score points or set up short-drive offensive scores. TENNESSEE,
13-7.
SAN DIEGO over *MIAMI by 7
The San Diego Chargers should be nicknamed the Cardiac Kids for their propensity to coast
through the first half, then explode in the second half of games. That being said, Norv Turner
might have a reason to suffer an actual heart attack if there is reason for the Chargers to
need a second half comeback to defeat the Dolphins. Of course, he probably felt that way
when the Chargers allowed the Raiders to tie the game with 3 minutes left last week, but the
Chargers were once again able to pull it out. What’s most important for the gambler to realize
is that San Diego is an extremely talented but inconsistent team that has yet to coalesce.
Shawne Merriman’s injury has had an incredibly detrimental effect and the defense remains
a trouble spot that could be exploited by a creative offensive package out of Miami offensive
coordinator, Dan Henning. While the Miami defense hasn’t been spectacular, they have managed
to hang with solid offenses for most of the year. Having the bye week to game plan
should help the Dolphins hang with the Chargers for most of this game. Ultimately, the superior
firepower of the Chargers will cement the outcome, but be wary of an inflated point
spread and a Miami coaching staff that will do whatever it takes to even up the playing field
on game day. SAN DIEGO 27-20.
*CAROLINA over KANSAS CITY by 13
The absolute lack of any kind of pass rush or run defense by the Denver Broncos made the
Kansas City Chiefs look like a legitimate NFL offense for one week, at least. However, facing
an elite level defense like Carolina on the road will revert the Chiefs right back to their pedestrian
performances of the first three weeks. Damon Huard, who was benched for Tyler
Thigpen due to injury and ineffectiveness, will prove to be a great target against the strong
Carolina pass rush and the combination of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will face
little resistance against an inexperienced and inconsistent Kansas City front seven.
Conversely, Larry Johnson will find it difficult to put up another 100-yard game against a
stout run defense that has depth on the defensive line and fast linebackers to chase down
running backs in pursuit. It’s not like LJ is the fastest running back around and he’ll find it
more difficult to break tackles against a defense that does more than just stick an arm out
when trying to stop a moving object. The aging Patrick Surtain and his fellow cornerbacks
will prove witness to the improving rapport between Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith, which
in turn will open up the entire Carolina passing offense. Just witness what Muhsin
Muhammad did last week – while that is certainly not a performance that will repeat every
week, the return of Smith gives the Panthers one more option to worry the defense. CAROLINA
23-10.
*PHILADELPHIA over WASHINGTON by 3
Redskins are off a hard-fought win against division rival Dallas, the kind of thing that sometimes
can take the air out of a team temporarily. Yet the points we said were coming
Washington’s way in the Gibbs (ZZZzzz)-to-Zorn switch have materialized: 29, 24, 26 since
the opening night stonewalling suffered in New York. Gibbs and Al Saunders are looking like
human anchors now. You wouldn’t want to be a Philadelphia defensive player in practice this
week after they allowed Kyle Orton of the Bears to look like a champ in only the first half last
Sunday night. They will be drummed into a frenzy and be looking to take it out on Jason
Campbell and the Redskins. Can they? The Eagles have always prided themselves on allowing
yards but stiffening in the red zone, which didn’t happen last Sunday. Campbell has
always had problems producing in the red zone, and one Sunday’s work at Dallas isn’t
enough evidence that this problem has ceased. Getting Westbrook back would help the
Eagles soften up the Skins’ D and take the pressure off their own. PHILADELPHIA, 23-20.
CHICAGO over *DETROIT by 2
Somehow, Detroit was 2-0 vs. Chicago last season. They did something they usually do not
do – win – twice. Therefore, they are capable of doing it again. They are a group of blockheads
seeking to rise above the label, an often-dangerous mix. They have the added edge of
coming off a bye week, while the Bears played the Sunday Night game vs. Philadelphia last
week. Once again, the Lions alleged brain trust was in front of the big screen, passing around
the Pretzel Thins and Diet Squirt, thinking about how they might put their players in position
to beat the Bears, and hoping that their quarterback, Charlie Brown-head Kitna, doesn’t point
the gun at his own team despite no real running game to support him, which is one reason
for Kitna’s repeated self-inflicted wounds. Detroit’s ownership kicked the architect of their
mess out of his chair since they last played, but Matt Millen wasn’t on the field or coaching
the Lions, and the Ford family still has major karmic payback coming its way for manufacturing
machines that have killed more people than any other invention besides guns and
bombs, polluting the atmosphere and burning precious energy in the process. The Bears are
healthier on defense this season than they were for either of the meetings vs. Detroit in ’07,
and their o-line protects well enough. CHICAGO, 23-21.
NEW ENGLAND over *SAN FRANCISCO by 8
Matt Cassell isn’t Tom Brady – both of their mothers and the entire world knows that, including
the San Francisco 49ers. In fact, rumors persist that rookie Kevin O’Connell, a third round
pick out of San Diego State, may see some playing time against the 49ers. Bill Belichick has
had an extra week of preparation time to limit the exposure of his team’s weakest assets
while realizing that new San Francisco quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan has a tendency to hold on
to the football for way too long. Expect the Patriots to keep the pressure on O’Sullivan all day
long, which should result in Frank Gore receiveing a heavy workload. The 49ers just might
be able to hang with the big boys for a while, as the Patriots are traveling west for a nonconference
road game and may not be fully there mentally. But the prospect of chasing a 4-
0 Buffalo team should ensure that the Patriots pull out a victory over a team they have a
superior talent edge against. NEW ENGLAND 24-16.
*DALLAS over CINCINNATI by 20
Knee-jerk reaction would be to say that because Cincinnati went into New York as a two-TD
underdog and took the NFC East Giants to overtime, they will come into Dallas and stay close
with the Cowboys. Hey, they might, anything is possible, but it’s also possible that the
Bengals will have picked yet another bad week to be the Bengals, with Dallas coming off
their first loss last Sunday. Before the season started, we talked about how Dallas had prepared
itself for inevitable NFC East defeats by bringing in assistant coaches with recent experience
in the AFC, including new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, who was Cleveland’s
defensive coordinator for three seasons and game-planned against the Bengals six times in
that span. Even Wade Phillips, the head coach, game-planned against Bob Bratkowski’s
Cincinnati system when he was defensive coordinator of the Chargers in 2006. Cincinnati is
no stranger to the locker-room string pullers, whose ego-bruised player puppets will be
foaming at the mouth to get their stats back up to par this Sunday. Winless Cincinnati’s
seams could be unraveling and if the Dallas pass rush is effective, it may not matter whether
or not Carson Palmer returns from a sore elbow. He missed a key AFC North game last
Sunday, so the injury has to be significant. DALLAS, 37-17.
*JACKSONVILLE over PITTSBURGH by 8
Two straight game-winning field goals by Josh Scobee has given the Jaguars a .500 record
and a new lease on life. The Jacksonville offensive line has been slowly improving after a terrible
start to the season, as has their defensive line, and the performance of David Garrard
and the run defense is testament to that improvement. Conversely, any offseason talk about
Pittsburgh’s offensive line having turned the corner has been exposed as fradulent and erroneous,
after the way Ben Roethlisberger has been knocked around like a pinball all season.
The big quarterback is dealing with an injured throwing shoulder and has been battered
around every game without failure. The Jaguars should be able to exert similar pressure on
the quarterback this week and the absence of Willie Parker and the reliance on rookie
Rashard Mendenhall, who has noticeably struggled with blitz pick-ups in his young career,
should make the pass protection a precarious situation once more. The Jaguars are slowly
rising up after a disastrous start to the season and facing an injured Pittsburgh squad coming
off a short week of rest should help them achieve a winning record for the first time this
season. JACKSONVILLE 23-15.
MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 6
MINNESOTA over *NEW ORLEANS by 1
You can buy the 1-3 SU and ATS Vikings cheap, despite the very real fact that they are transitioning
from the one of the best opposing offensive-defensive line combinations
(Tennessee) to one of the weakest. New Orleans’ running game, so-so at best, attempts to
dent a good run defense that did everything it needed to do last week in a loss, and might
get rewarded if they bring it again here. The Vikings will contain the run and they have the
speed on defense – especially at linebacker -- to chase down Bush on those screen and
wideout pass plays. Drew Brees has nightmares about floating balls over the line and into
Cover-2 defenses. The Saints’ ability to stop anything that moves with a purpose (do not
count the San Francisco 49ers’ offense as something that moves with a purpose) is highly
suspect. MINNESOTA, 24-23.
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:14pm -
0 likes
THE SPORTS MEMO - NCAA
ROB VENO
RUTGERS AT WEST VIRGINIA -14
Recommendation: West Virginia
An unraveling Rutgers squad played poorly once again last weekend in their 38-0 victory against I-AA Morgan State. The final reads far more impressive than the actual content of the game as the Knights were able to stifle the Morgan State offense but still unable to move the ball with any authority. Sure Rutgers suspended
star wide receiver Kenny Britt and starting left tackle Anthony Davis for the game but even with its remaining huge personnel advantages, Rutgers was only able to compile 297 total yards and they allowed four quarterback sacks. There’s zero continuity with this offense right now and with West Virginia’s defense
beginning to make strides, expect this road test to prolong Rutgers’ sputtering
ways. The Mountaineers offense has begun to click behind back-to-back 300+ rushing yard performances and they’re due for a scoreboard eruption. Fresno State and Navy each ran the ball successfully against the Knights and Pat White and Co. figure to do the same. Play action passing off the run should do damage to Rutgers as well. Expect West Virginia to consistently pressure mistake-prone QB Mike Teel to help produce points as they roll at home to an easy win.
ED CASH
DUKE +14 AT GEORGIA TECH
Recommendation: Duke
Last week, I had a winner here on Duke as a home dog against a woeful
Virginia team as they cruised, 31-3. This week we take the much improved
Blue Devils on the road as a two touchdown underdog to the Yellow
Jackets. I am sold on David Cutcliffe as a coach, and he secretly has some talent to work with in Durham. They certainly are worthy of a look as a 14-point dog against anyone in the ACC given what we have witnessed
thus far. Georgia Tech is also better than expected this year under new coach Paul Johnson. They have implemented his running offense very well, even with starting quarterback Josh Nesbitt on the shelf with an injury.
They had over 450 yards on the ground two weeks ago against Mississippi
State in a 38-7 win. Duke does have the advantage of playing this exact offense just two weeks ago in their win over Navy, so I expect them to be well prepared and not be caught off-guard. They gave up a couple of big plays but totally dominated the Midshipmen in the second half. Tech is obviously better than Navy, but not worthy of this high of a price.
TEDDY COVERS
TEXAS TECH -7 AT KANSAS STATE
Recommendation: Texas Tech
Kansas State is not a good defensive football team. The Wildcats closed out the 2007 campaign by allowing 198 points in their final four games, missing out on a bowl bid as a result. Two weeks ago, we saw a suspect Louisville offense rush for 303 yards against the Wildcats, while Louisville quarterback Hunter Cantwell picked apart the secondary. K-State couldn’t get to the quarterback with their blitzes; they got pushed around at the line of scrimmage against the run, and their back seven looked noticeably slow against a mediocre Big East opponent. Last week, it was a similar story, this time against a Sun Belt foe. Louisiana-Lafayette gained more than 500 yards against the Wildcats, hanging 37 points on this bottom-tier stop-unit. The last time that K-State faced the high-octane Texas Tech attack, the Red Raiders threw for a school record 669 yards in a 59-20 wipeout…and that was against a better defense
than the one Ron Prince is working with this year. While Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas have been steadily moving up in the national polls thanks to some high profile victories, Mike Leach’s squad has stayed under the radar through the first month of the season, giving us a very reasonable pointspread to work with here.
JARED KLEIN
OHIO STATE AT WISCONSIN +3
Recommendation: Wisconsin
Since 2004 the Wisconsin Badgers have been a home underdog a total of twice and they are 2-0 SU and ATS in both those contests. Camp Randall is one of the ultimate home field advantages in all of college football with the Badgers sporting a 41-14 record since 2000. Wisconsin is coming off of a very disappointing
loss to Michigan last weekend after blowing a 19-point lead despite forcing five turnovers. “It was embarrassing,†senior linebacker DeAndre Levy was quoted as saying. “I am more embarrassed than anything. I am baffled to what happened.†Maybe looking ahead to Ohio State, maybe not. Either way UW handed Michigan the game. Despite Ohio State’s 38-17 win last year, the Badgers are the only Big Ten team above .500 (3-2) against the Buckeyes during the Jim Tressel era. Everyone will be talking about freshman QB Terrelle
Pryor’s solid game against Minnesota and how nothing seems to faze this kid, but this is his first true road start in one of the most hostile environments
in the Big Ten. Wisconsin is still a good football team despite the loss and I expect them to rebound in a big way this weekend in Camp Randall.
TIM TRUSHEL
OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR +27
Recommendation: Baylor
The Sooners are without question a very good football team. Quarterback Sam Bradford has led this team to a 4-0 mark while scoring an average of 50 ppg. Their margin of victory
is an incredible 37 ppg. But would it surprise you to know that last year at this exact same point Oklahoma was 4-0 and had scored an average of 62 ppg with an average margin
of victory of 50 ppg? Yet despite this early season non-conference success Oklahoma lost its next game to Colorado as a 23-point road favorite. In fact, during the Big XII regular
season the Sooners were just 3-6 ATS with these inflated lines. We saw it numerous times last week with straight up losses by USC, Florida, Georgia, East Carolina, Clemson and Wake Forest. Throw in big favorite spread losses by Pittsburgh, LSU and Penn State and you clearly see that parity has hit college football hard. The statement “On any given Sunday…†now applies to Saturday as well. Baylor is an exciting young team with a huge playmaker at quarterback, Robert Griffin. New coach Art Briles has brought an explosive offensive scheme from Houston and the results have been solid. With an extra week to prepare the Bears will bring maximum effort. Oklahoma is 17-0 all-time versus Baylor and with games against Texas and Kansas on deck the Sooners may look past the Bears.
BRENT CROW
TEXAS AT COLORADO +14
Recommendation: Colorado
The Buffaloes are getting no respect at all at home this week against Texas. The loss to Florida State has turned Colorado into a two-touchdown home underdog
against an unbeaten conference rival. They will undoubtedly be ready to play this week against the Longhorns, who probably aren’t nearly as worried after watching the Buffaloes lose to Florida State. Texas also has a date with Oklahoma next week, so they could very easily be looking ahead to that game. Colorado is no slouch at home, beating West Virginia already this season and upsetting No. 3 ranked Oklahoma last year in Boulder as a 23.5-point underdog.
Don’t pay much attention to the 39-22 loss to Florida State last week, it included a cross-country trip, was played in hot, humid conditions, and the Buffs may have partied a little too much after beating West Virginia the week prior. Late last year, Colorado was just +3.5 at home to 15th ranked Kansas and also +3.5 hosting 9th ranked Mizzou, so this line is clearly an overreaction
to its loss to Florida State. Texas is unproven thus far after beating four bad teams and this will be their biggest test to date. Put the Horns on upset alert
ERIN RYNNING
ILLINOIS +2.5 AT MICHIGAN
Recommendation: Illinois
Illinois travels to Ann Arbor this Saturday where they’ll battle the Wolverines. I feel Michigan is still in a vulnerable state despite its upset win over Wisconsin last weekend. The offense is inept with little threat in the passing game shown by the 96 yards amassed against the Badgers. In fact, Michigan had just one first down in the first half and was outgained 220-21 yards, due in large part to five turnovers. Meanwhile, the Illini were caught in a tough Happy Valley environment last Saturday eventually losing by 14 points. The Illini have faced a couple of stellar offenses and we peg the defense to greatly improve its numbers
starting this week against Michigan. Facing the Michigan spread offense will be nothing new after facing it in every game this season, and of course every day in practice. On the other side of the coin, Michigan spent much of the game trying to figure out Utah’s balanced attack and Illinois is as balanced as they come, averaging more than 200 yards per game passing and rushing. Don’t get down on this Illini squad. They are without question the better of these two teams and have more than enough offense to win this game outright.
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:15pm -
0 likes
THE SPORTS MEMO - NFL
MARTY OTTO
INDIANAPOLIS -3 AT HOUSTON
O/U 47
Recommendation: Over
I normally wouldn’t play an NFL total lined this high but some real fundamental and situational factors line up and make this one hard to pass up. For starters, the Houston defense just can’t keep opponents off the scoreboard. They’ve given up at least 30 points in all three of their games thus far, equally gashed on the ground and through the air even by modest offensive teams like Jacksonville and Tennessee. While I think the Colts’ offense is somewhat diminished from recent years due to poor health along the front line, they did have the luxury of working out the kinks during their bye last week. Going back to the second half of the Minnesota game we have seen Peyton Manning shake off some of the rust after missing camp with a knee injury and the running game finally make a contribution. When the game has been on the line Manning
has led his team to easy points and I don’t see him having a problem picking apart Houston’s shady secondary. I don’t however think the Colts’ defense will be able to fix their problems in one week. They are undersized and inexperienced and the sudden emergence of Steve Slaton for Houston will add to the Colts’ misery in stopping
the run. Six straight in this head-to-head have gone Over and this makes seven.
FAIRWAY JAY
SAN DIEGO AT MIAMI +7
Recommendation: Miami
Two weeks ago we cashed our easiest winner of the season when the Dolphins (+12.5) traveled to New England and crushed the AFC Champs 38-13. Now back in action and coming off a bye week, Miami is in a very strong situation as a big home underdog. Numerous strong situational systems support Miami this week, as the players and coaches have the extra week of preparation and planning while the public still approaches these fish as dead and unable to swim with the big fish. The Chargers were losing 15-0 at halftime last week and struggled mightily with the Raiders before scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter to get the 28-18 victory and a remarkable pointspread cover. Oakland had some injured offensive linemen and less than 100% running backs, but still managed to outgain San Diego despite
Tomlinson’s big late touchdown run. This week it will be the Dolphins’ ground attack of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams that can chew up yardage similar to how the Panthers and Broncos (140+ each rushing) did while beating San Diego in weeks 1 and 2. Add in some single wing sets, short Pennington passes and a stronger
and improving Dolphins’ defense and this ‘Dog should be ready to bite again.
DONNIE BLACK
BUFFALO AT ARIZONA -1.5
Recommendation: Arizona
The Cardinals were 2-15 straight up in the Eastern Time Zone entering their game against the New York Jets. To spark some success the organization decided
to stay on the East Coast for the entire week. Many players were not in favor of the plan. Kurt Warner was the most outspoken against it and perhaps the results were indicative of his displeasure. The game results were not good as the Cardinals lost 56-35 and Warner had three fumbles lost and three interceptions. The Cardinals showed some spark as the offense
in the second half was tremendous. However, the defense could not slow down Brett Favre on his way to six touchdown passes. Off the big loss the Cardinals return home to face the perfect 4-0 Buffalo Bills who rallied in the second half to win and cover against the St. Louis Rams. Buffalo was outgained by more than 100 yards and was only 3-of-13 on third down yet was able to manage a 17-point win. For Buffalo, this will be the best team in the most favorable situation that they have faced this season. We expect Arizona to earn the win as we eagerly grab the small line in this matchup.
TEDDY COVERS NEWS AND NOTES
Bengals - Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly no Carson Palmer; really struggling
with the down field passing game. 57 yards and two interceptions
in the first half doesn’t cut it, even for a backup. A big part of the problem is the offensive line. There’s no running game to support the quarterback here, and Fitzpatrick does not have time to find receivers down field. Chris Perry leads NFL running backs in fumbles through four games, another very bad sign. Even with multiple injuries in the secondary,
Cinci did do a solid job of shutting down the Browns passing game, the lone bright spot for the afternoon. This team is playing passionless football, and that’s a very bad sign this early in the season.
Bills - This is a team to bet against in the first quarter/first half. The sluggish starts have been a consistent thing for Buffalo; three straight weeks in which they’ve looked half asleep early. This offensive line is not getting the job done here - Trent Edwards took way too many hits and Marshawn Lynch did not have room to run. We forget how young this team actually is - there are only six players on the roster on the wrong side of 30. Hence, the lapses in concentration and intensity are perfectly understandable. And with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, no team in the NFL has stepped up better than the Bills so far this young season, turning fourth quarter deficits into victories in each of their last three ball games.
Broncos - Brandon Marshall might be the single best receiver in the NFL right now. The guy has linebacker size, but the softest hands around and the ability to outleap defenders. His touchdown catch to give the Broncos the lead here was truly a thing of beauty. With Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler, this passing game is borderline unstoppable, all with players that have three years of experience or less; an outstanding core group to build around. Too bad Jay Cutler had an awful afternoon, his first bad game of the season. This run defense is getting pushed around badly. The problems Denver has had with its front seven in recent years aren’t solved. Dre Bly is clearly the weak link in this secondary. This is not an upper echelon defense by any stretch of the imagination.
Chargers - LaDainian Tomlinson is a complete non-factor right now. It’s perfectly clear to anyone who is impartially watching that Darren Sproles is the more explosive running back. Every time Ted Cottrell calls a blitz, something good seems to happen. Every time the defense drops back into coverage, something bad seems to happen - the pass rush simply isn’t there without the blitz. I just can’t fathom why they aren’t blitzing on almost every play. Does anyone else think that Nate Kaeding is the spitting image of a young Bob Newhart, especially following
a missed field goal?
Chiefs - Herm Edwards refused to take a chance on fourth and short from inside the two yard line, settling for 23 and 21-yard field goals in the first quarter. It’s not rocket science to recognize that Edwards is too conservative, but this was downright ridiculous; a coach more interested in hanging around than in putting pressure on their opponent
right from the get-go. These rookie cornerbacks are going to have their share of growing pains. Punter Dustin Colquitt really might be the most important pointspread player on this team, consistently pinning the Broncos deep in their own territory. With all the money and high draft choices they’ve spent on their defensive line over the past few seasons, I have only one question - where’s the pass rush! Key injury to first round draft choice, offensive lineman Brandon Albert, who was carted off the field. At least Larry Johnson showed up today, carrying the team on his back to earn their first win since last October despite the offensive line woes.
Jaguars - These safeties are really struggling in pass coverage - the secondary depth here is not very good. And the once vaunted run defense
looked a bit suspect here - I’ve got serious questions about this defense. The Jags offense had the ball for 26 minutes in the second half against Indy last week, but that was only because the Colts were scoring so quickly. Here, the Texans were able to control the clock for a good portion of the game against Jacksonville. This coaching staff is making excellent adjustments at halftime. For the third week in a row, the Jags came out in the second half and marched down the field, taking control of a close game. David Garrard is really taking apart the Texans secondary with short, precise throws. Four drives in the second half and overtime; four scores.
Jets - Their uniforms are ugly enough to warrant some discussion here. Aren’t the Jets a green and white team, not a yellow-and-blue team? Quit messing me up! This was the second straight week that we’ve seen some ball-hawking potential out of this defense. On Monday
Night, the Jets had a pick six, and they had another one here with Darrelle Revis. Shaun Ellis forced a Kurt Warner fumble for a loss of 23 yards, negating a red zone opportunity, then Dwight Lowery created a turnover two plays later with a devastating hit on Anquan Boldin, recovered by the newly signed Hank Poteat. This young secondary is making some plays! Forcing five first half turnovers goes a long way towards notching a victory in a must win game.
Raiders - The Raiders were able to run the football effectively, even when facing eight or nine men in the box. And with the opposing defense selling out to stop the run, for the second straight week we saw a big play catch and run touchdown throw from JaMarcus Russell. But the passing game couldn’t carry the offense after halftime - held to a single first down for the first 25 minutes of the second half. And once Russell was faced with some blitzes, the offensive production declined markedly.
Texans - The whole offense is predicated on Matt Schaub’s ability to hit receivers in stride, and he’s just not doing that right now. Andre Johnson isn’t running crisp routes, and their shots down the field to Johnson aren’t connecting. Even the bread and butter of the offense, the underneath routes, are not connecting. One touchdown in six red zone possessions heading into this game, and it was a problem again here. Rookie running back Steve Slaton is very slippery, the perfect fit for this offense. But when the offense finally found some rhythm, the defense fell apart, allowing four scores on four drives after halftime. This secondary really is bottom tier - they need Dunta Robinson to get healthy ASAP.
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 4:15pm -
0 likes
*** FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER PLAYS AND RECORD TRACKING REPORT ***
(Top 2 Star Ratings Plays and Special Plays)
** NCAA NEWSLETTERS **
HOT CAPPERS / PLAYS
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (3-1-1)...MINNESOTA
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (3-1)...
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (4-0)...DUKE
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (3-1)...
HQ REPORT 5* (3-1-1)...BALL ST
HQ REPORT UNDERDOG PLAY OF WEEK (4-1)...UTEP
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (4-1)...SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (3-0)...TOLEDO
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP EARLY (2-1)...
FADES:
LOGICAL APPROACH MONEYLINE (1-3)...
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (0-3)...
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-4)...MICHIGAN
POINTWISE 2* (0-6)...MISSOURI
THE REST
BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (1-2)...COLORADO
CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 2* (0-1)...
CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 3* (0-1)...
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (10-6)...KANSAS STATE...STANFORD...WISCONSIN
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (2-2)...
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (1-0)...ILLINOIS
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...
HQ REPORT ATS (3-2)...SOUTH CAROLINA
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (2-3)...IND/MIN OVER
HQ REPORT 4* (0-0)...
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (2-0)...WISCONSIN
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (7-5)...
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (3-3)...
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (1-1)...
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (2-3)...ALABAMA
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (0-2)...
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (3-4)...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (1-0)...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (1-0)...
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (37-28)...
POINTWISE 1* (4-6)...OKLAHOMA ST...TCU
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (1-1)...WEST VIRGINIA
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (8-7)...
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (6-11-1)...GEORGIA TECH...MIAMI-OH...MISSOURI...COLORADO...OKLAHOMA ST...OHIO ST
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (9-7-1)...
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (1-2)...RUTGERS
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (10-9-1)...BOISE ST...NEBRASKA...TOLEDO...BAYLOR...USC
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (0-2)...TEXAS TECH
THE GOLD SHEET (9-11)...MICHIGAN ST...UCONN...VANDERBILT...ALABAMA
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (12-9)...
THE RED SHEET 88* (7-7-1)...
THE RED SHEET 89* (5-4-1)...
THE RED SHEET 90* (1-0)...
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (1-1)...BAYLOR
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (6-4)...
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (9-13)...
** NFL NEWSLETTERS **
HOT
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (3-1)...PHILADELPHIA
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (3-1)...
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (3-0-1)...TENNESSEE
POINTWISE 2* (2-1)...
FADE
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (0-3)...
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (1-4)...
LOGICAL APPROACH MONEYLINE (1-3)...
LOGICAL APPROACH TOTALS (0-8)...
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (0-3)...
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (1-4-1)...NY GIANTS
THE RED SHEET 88* (1-2)...
THE REST
BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (0-0)...
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (0-0)
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (0-0)...ARIZONA
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (0-0)...
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (1-2)...
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (0-1)...MIAMI
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (1-1)...
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (5-4)...
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (2-0)...
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (2-3)...PHILADELPHIA
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (2-3)...NEW ENGLAND
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (2-0)...IND/HOU OVER
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (1-0)...
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (1-0)...
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (3-3)...
POINTWISE 1* (0-0)...
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (1-0)...
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (7-5)...
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (6-5)...ATLANTA...TAMPA BAY...ARIZONA
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (1-0)...
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (9-11)...SAN DIEGO...PHILADELPHIA...DENVER...ARIZONA...MINNESOT A
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (0-1)...
THE GOLD SHEET (5-7)...NEW ENGLAND...ARIZONA...TB/DEN OVER
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (1-2-1)...
THE RED SHEET 89* (1-0)...
THE RED SHEET 90* (0-0)...
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (2-0)...
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (7-4)...
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (2-4)...
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 10:20pm -
0 likes
THE RED SHEET
RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
OCTOBER 4, 2008
VOLUME 40, NUMBER 6
South Carolina 27 - MISSISSIPPI 20 - (2:00 EDT) --Line opened at Mississippi minus 3, and is now minus 2½. This contest sets up perfectly for the Gamecocks, not only catching the Rebs off their epic draining upset of Florida, but also on the heels of their previous grinder vs Vandy. SC has been somewhat of a disappointment so far, but took Georgia to the final gun, & is in off a couple of warmups, Wofford & UAB. The 'Cocks field the 9th best "D" in the nation, & top passing "D", which should put Reb QB Snead to the test. SEC has been dog heaven in this type of affair, & Spurrier has been a premier road pup play. And again.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 89
OKLAHOMA STATE 55 - Texas A&M 20 - (7:00) --Line opened at OklahomaSt minus 23½, and is now minus 24½. The Cowboys have to be the number one "under the radar" team in the land, just now sneaking into the Top 25 (21st & 22nd in the polls). Their triumvirate of QB Robinson (5th ranked passer in the land), Hunter (#3 rusher), & Bryant (#5 receiver) lead the nation's 3rd rated scoring offense. Contrast that to the Aggies, who've rank 101st in total offense, are 103rd in rushing (133 RYs vs Army), & are hurting at QB. Toss in the fact that the 'Pokes have dropped 2 straight series heartbreakers. Revenge in true style.
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 89
MIAMI-OHIO 30 - Temple 10 - (3:30) --Line opened at Miami minus 8, and is now minus 7. A week ago, we went against these Owls, in their home match with WesternMichigan, figuring that their offensive production would take a nose-dive, with the loss of QB DeMichele, & it more than proved out, as Temple managed but a mere FG vs the Broncos. However, it ended in a
push, as Western, despite a 252-60 PY edge, & an 18-10 FD advantage, was able to post just 7 pts itself. But the Owls must now travel to a Miami team,which has already faced a non-conference slate of Vandy, Michigan, & Cincinnati. Another revenger.
RATING: MIAMI-OHIO 88
BOWLING GREEN 48 - Eastern Michigan 10 - (4:00) --Line opened at BowlingGreen minus 20, and is now minus 21. The Falcons of BG are another rather unnoticed team, as their 2-2 log would indicate. However, those setbacks came vs the likes of Minnesota & Boise. So note that the Gophers have but a single loss, to OhioSt, while the Broncos are perfect, while holding down the 17th spot in the nation. Not only that, but the Falcs played Minny even-up, statwise, except for a 5-0 TO deficit. And their loss to Boise again was due to the OT (3), as BG had 22-16 FD edge. Eagles allowing 44 ppg in their last 7 lined games.
RATING: BOWLING GREEN 88
Akron 34 - KENT STATE 14 - (12:00) --Line opened at Akron minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. As long as the Flashes are on the board, there is only one way to go. That's right, an 0-11 spread run! And as we noted on Pointwise, earlier in the week, they are minus 146½ pts ATS in their last 6 games. They have actually been decent, overland, but their ace RB Jarvis is now hurting (ankle). Defensively, they can't stop much, ranking 105th overall, including 114th vs the run. The Zips' record is a bit deceiving, with 2 of their 3 losses coming vs Wisconsin (5½ pt cover), & Cincinnati (9-pt cover). Leadership of Jacquemain decides it.
RATING: AKRON 88
New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13 - (4:15) --Line opened at NewEngland minus 3½, and is now minus 3. As we wrote earlier, had these 2 met on opening week, the spread would have been at least 10 pts higher. The loss of Brady, of course, is monumental. However, the defense stepped up in the Pats' 2 openers, allowing 10 & 10 pts. But it all collapsed in 3813
shocking loss to Miami, at home. Thus, this contest is a classic "backs-to-the-wall" situation for the Patriots. No questioning the improvement of the Niners (33 & 31 pt efforts in 2 of their last 3 outings), thus there will be no sneaking up. Pats have to take it.
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TCU, Missouri, MichiganSt, UCLA -- NFL: Jacksonville, Giants, Minnesota
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 10:22pm -
0 likes
Power Plays 4*'s
CFB:
4* West Virginia
4* Penn State
4* Minnesota
4* Iowa State
4* Duke
4* UNLV
4* Western Michigan
4* FSU
4* California
4* Florida
4* SMU
4* Bowling Green
4* TCU
4* UTEP
4* Oklahoma State
NFL:
4* Carolina
4* Tampa Bucs
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2008 10:23pm -
0 likes
DR BOB
4 Iowa
3 Utah St
3 Baylor
3 Okla St
3 Tulsa
3 GT
3 Stanford
2 W Va
2 Hawaii
2 NC
2 Zona
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Star Selection
**** Iowa 30 MICHIGAN ST. (-7.0) 24
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Michigan State has won 4 straight games since losing at Cal and Iowa is coming off back-to-back loss to Pitt and Northwestern. Those recent results have given me tons of line value to play on a superior Iowa squad that is in a great situation against an overrated Michigan State team. Let’s review Michigan State ’s season so far. The Spartans started the season with a not as close as the final score indicated 31-38 loss at Cal, who out-gained MSU 7.4 yards per play to 5.1 yppl and should have won by 17 points if not for a few fluke plays. Michigan State rebounded with a 42-10 win over Eastern Michigan , but only out-gained the lowly Eagles 6.3 yppl to 5.8 yppl. After that was a solid 17-0 win over Florida Atlantic and a good win over a bad Notre Dame team (you’ll see). Last week’s win over Indiana was the result of a +3 in turnover margin, as the Spartans were out-gained 6.5 yppl to 6.6 yppl against by a Hoosiers team that was missing 3 of their 4 starting defensive backs and lost two subs during the game (which is why Hoyer was able to average 10.0 yards per pass play). For the season Michigan State has been just 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) and all this talk about Jevon Ringer’s great season is a bit unfounded when you consider that Ringer has averaged a mediocre 4.8 ypr this season against teams that would allow 5.1 ypr to an average team. The Spartans defense, meanwhile, is 0.3 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Michigan State does have better than average special teams, but the Spartans are just barely better than an average Division 1A team so far this year – but their 4 straight wins has hidden that fact. Iowa, despite being 3-2, has been 0.7 yppl better than average offensively (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), and are better now that Ricky Stanzi is the full-time quarterback, and the Hawkeyes have been 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yppl). Iowa ’s close losses to Pitt and Northwestern are a bit misleading when you consider that the Hawkeyes out-gained those teams 771 yards at 5.8 yppl to 657 yards at 4.8 yppl. The perception of these two teams is way off and Iowa applies to a 63-12 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation while Michigan State applies to a negative 42-91-3 ATS home favorite letdown situation that plays against teams on a 4 game or more win streak. Iowa also applies to a 44-11-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Hawkeyes are 11-4 ATS after consecutive losses since 2000 (8-2 ATS as a dog). I’ll take Iowa in a 4-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars from +6 ½ to +4 points (2-Stars down to +3).
3 Star Selection
*** GEORGIA TECH (-12.5) 35 Duke 10
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Duke starting the season at 3-1 and breaking a 25 game conference losing streak under new coach David Cutcliffe is a nice story, but the Blue Devils are a Cinderella story that is not going to have a fairy tale ending. Duke has out-scored their opponents by an average score of 30.8 to 16.3, but that is wildly misleading given that the Blue Devils have averaged only 4.8 yards per play while allowing 5.2 yppl. The Blue Devils’ offense has gained their 4.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, so they are once again bad offensively and won’t move the ball with much success against a very good Georgia Tech stop unit that has yielded just 4.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team. While Duke’s offense is struggling to move the ball, the Blue Devils mediocre defense (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 5.1 yppl against an average team) will be overwhelmed by a Georgia Tech option rushing attack that has averaged 6.9 yppl against a schedule of most good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl to an average attack. Georgia Tech quarterback Josh Nesbitt is nursing an injured hamstring and will not play, but backup quarterback Jaybo Shaw led the attack to 500 yards at 7.9 yppl last week against a normally stingy Mississippi State defense. Many analysts, including myself, wondered if coach Paul Johnson’s option attack that worked so well at Navy could work in the ACC and that question has been answered. I suppose it’s pretty obvious that an offense that was able to move the ball against BCS teams with inferior talent at Navy should really be able to move the ball with BCS athletes running it. This looks like a blowout win to me and I’ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars from -14 ½ to -17 points.
3 Star Selection
***Stanford 26 NOTRE DAME (-7.0) 23
11:30 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Stanford won for me last week and I’m back on the Cardinal for another 3-Star Best Bet. Stanford is an improving team that is now better than average on both sides of the ball and is playing with more confidence. Quarterback Tavita Pritchard had his best game ever last week (222 yards on 24 pass plays) and he is now just 0.2 yards per pass play worse than an average quarterback (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback). Stanford’s offensive line is opening holes for Toby Gerhart (421 yards at 5.7 ypr) and backup Anthony Kimble (248 yards at 5.3 ypr), who took over for a woozy Gerhart in the first quarter last week and ran for 157 yards on 15 carries. Gerhart should be over his concussion by game time, but Kimble is good enough to get the job done against a soft Notre Dame defensive front that has given up 4.9 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average team. The Notre Dame pass defense isn’t good either, allowing 5.9 yppp to teams that would average 5.8 yppp, and the Irish rate at 0.3 yards per play worse than average overall defensively. Stanford is 0.4 yppl better than average offensively with Pritchard on the field and the Cardinal should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game. Notre Dame’s offense did a good job last week in a win over Purdue, but the Irish lack a rushing attack and have averaged just 5.2 yppl for the season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Stanford’s defense has come on strong since LB Nick Macaluso and S Sean Wiser joined the lineup after each missed the first two games. The Cardinal were a bit worse than average defensively in the 2 games without Macaluso and Wiser, but they’ve yielded just 4.4 yppl in 3 games with their current lineup (to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Even using all games the Cardinal would rate at 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl) and that unit has an edge over Notre Dame’s defense. Stanford has an edge in this game regardless of who has the ball and both teams are good in special teams. Notre Dame’s 3 wins haven’t actually been very impressive, as they barely out-played a bad San Diego State team, were out-gained 5.0 yppl to 5.7 yppl by a mediocre Michigan team and only out-gained Purdue last week 6.45 yppl to 6.42 yppl. Stanford should be favored in this game and the Cardinal apply to a very strong 44-11-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’ll take Stanford in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars from +6 ½ to +5 points.
3 Star Selection
*** OKLAHOMA ST. (-24.0) 51 Texas A&M 14
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Oklahoma State had the nation’s 3rd best offense last season and they rank at #3 in my offensive ratings this season too – although they are better than they were last season. The Cowboys are led by quarterback Zac Robinson, who averaged 8.3 yards per pass play last season (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB), and is even better so far this year (11.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp). While Robinson is a great passer, the Cowboys have chosen to mostly keep the ball on the ground in their 4 blowout wins. That strategy has worked just fine, as the Cowboys have averaged 6.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team). Oklahoma State has racked up more than 600 total yards and 55-plus points in each of their last 3 games, including last week against a good Troy State defense. I don’t see any way that Texas A&M will be able to stop the Cowboys with a defense that has allowed 238 rushing yards at 5.7 yprp to teams that would only average 4.4 yprp against an average defensive team. Oklahoma State may score on every drive in this game when they don’t turn the ball over (and they’ve committed just 5 turnovers in 4 games). Texas A&M will not have much luck when they get the ball, as the Aggies are 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack) while Oklahoma State is 0.5 yppl better than average on defense (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppp). The Aggies’ starting quarterback Stephen McGee is out, but Jerrod Johnson has had most of the snaps this season and is equally bad. The Cowboys are also dangerous in special teams while Texas A&M is below average in special teams. My ratings favor the Cowboys by 37 points in this game and they apply to a very strong 78-20-2 ATS momentum situation. Oklahoma State certainly has no issues with running up the score either, as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 13 points the last 3 season, winning those games by an average of 32.4 points while laying an average of 18.4 points. I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -27 points or less and for 2-Stars at -27 ½ or -28 points.
3 Star Selection
*** TULSA (-15.5) 55 Rice 28
05:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Both of these teams are horrible defensively, but Tulsa is much better offensively and should eventually pull away from the Owls. Tulsa ’s bend but don’t break defense has allowed an average of 404 yards at 5.9 yards per play (against teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average team), but only 24 points per game. While the Hurricane are 1.0 yppl worse than average defensively, that unit is better than a Rice defense that is 1.3 yppl worse than average for the season (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and has been even worse since losing top CB Brandon King, who broke up 19 passes last season and had 2 interceptions in 3 games this season. Rice has been 2.0 yppl worse than average in two games without King, allowing 7.1 yppl to Texas and North Texas , who would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The difference in this game is offense and that is a huge difference in favor of Tulsa . Rice is a good offensive team that has been 0.2 yppl better than average in their 5 games, averaging 5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. However, Tulsa ’s offense is the best in the nation right now, averaging a ridiculous 601 yards at 8.7 yppl at 55 points per game – against a schedule that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team. Quarterback David Johnson has averaged an incredible 12.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average QB) and he has averaged 10 yppp or more in every game with 19 touchdown passes against just 4 interceptions in 4 games. The Golden Hurricane can run the ball too, averaging 216 yards at 5.9 yard per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp) and I expect Tulsa to score every possession in which they do not turn the ball over (they’ve committed just 5 turnovers in 4 games). My math model favors Tulsa by 25 ½ points in this game and the Hurricane apply to a very good 78-20-2 ATS home momentum situation while Rice applies to a negative 64-146-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their 77-20 win over North Texas. I’ll take Tulsa in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 ½ points to -20 points.
2 Star Selection
** WEST VIRGINIA (-13.5) 35 Rutgers 14
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
West Virginia is much better than a 2-2 team that has only out-scored their foes by an average of 6.7 points. The Mountaineers have out-gained their opponents 6.0 yards per play to 4.5 yppl and it’s just random that they have only averaged 23 points when an average of 6.0 yppl on offense would generally result in about 30 points per game. The offense has improved the last two games with coach Bill Stewart reverting back to the run-oriented option attack that has been so successful for the Mountaineers in recent years, after trying to implement a more pass-heavy attack. Pat White is still an accurate quarterback (73.3% completions), but the inexperienced West Virginia receiving corps is simply not getting open down the field, which has resulted in an average of just 7.2 yards per catch (the worst in the nation I’m guessing). The less passing the better as far as I’m concerned and West Virginia has topped 300 yards rushing in each of their last two games (at 6.8 yards per rushing play) and the Mounties should run for over 300 yards at around 7.0 yprp in this game against a Rutgers defense that allowed 218 rushing yards at 5.9 yprp to Fresno State and 279 yards at 5.9 yprp to Navy – the two good running teams that they’ve faced. Rutgers has been 0.2 yards per play worse than average defensively through their first 4 games (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team), so West Virginia should move the ball well with an attack that rates at 0.6 yppl better than average. Rutgers’ offense is probably going to improve upon their poor early season results (just 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but West Virginia has been 0.7 yppl better than average defensively (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl) and the Mounties are even better than that now that star LB Reed Williams (leading tackler last season) is back after missing the first two games. West Virginia has yielded just 3.9 yppl to Colorado and Marshall in the two games with Reed in the lineup, which rates at 1.2 yppl better than average (Colorado and Marshall would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). In addition to my math model favoring West Virginia by 22 ½ points the Mountaineers also apply to a very good 253-136-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator. My only issue with this game is Rutgers ’ 9-1 ATS mark as a double-digit underdog the last 6 seasons, but that team trend doesn’t out-weight the rest of the evidence supporting the Mountaineers. I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and I’d consider the Mountaineers a Strong Opinion from -14 ½ to -16 points.
2 Star Selection
**BAYLOR 24 Oklahoma (-26.5) 40
09:30 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Baylor’s days as the Big 12’s punching bag are over. The Bears are a new team under new coach Art Briles and freshman quarterback Robert Griffin is one of the most exciting and talented newcomers in the nation. Griffin took over the reigns of the offense late in the Bears’ opening 13-41 loss to Wake Forest and he has been great ever since. Griffin has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) with zero interceptions while also running for 372 yards in just over 3 games on just 46 rushing plays (that’s 8.1 yprp!). Taking out the game with Division 1AA Northwestern State would drop gives a better indication of Griffin’s ability at this level, but he’s still been very good in averaging 6.5 yppp againsat Division 1A teams that would combine to allow just 5.4 yppp to an average QB. Griffin is joined in the backfield by sophomore back Jay Finley, who has run for 317 yards at 8.1 ypr. Overall, Baylor has been 1.4 yards per play better than average in 3 games against Division 1A teams when Griffin was at quarterback (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Oklahoma ’s defense has been 0.8 yppl better than average in 3 games against Division 1A opponents (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl), so Baylor has an advantage against the Sooners’ defense and should move the ball pretty well. The Bears are also good defensively, allowing just 4.9 yppl in 3 Division 1A games to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team. Oklahoma is great offensively, averaging 7.4 yppl when quarterback Sam Bradford is in the game (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack), but they’re facing a defense that is 0.5 yppl better than the average stop unit they’ve faced this season and this game is on the road – so I doubt that the Sooners will get to their 49.8 point average. Oklahoma is actually not likely to continue scoring as efficiently as they have been, as it’s nearly impossible to continue to score a touchdown nearly every time they get in the redzone (they’ve attempted just 1 field goal and scored a TD every other time they’ve been within the opponent’s 20 yard line) and the Sooners are not going to go through the season with zero lost fumbles either. My math model project Oklahoma to tally 498 yards at 7.1 yppl in this game, but it also projects Baylor with 397 yards at 5.9 yppl, which would lead to a game that is much close than expected even if Oklahoma continues to score as efficiently as they have been. In addition to good line value (the fair line should be 22 points) Oklahoma applies to a negative 32-85-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation that has already worked twice this year (against USC in their straight up loss at Oregon State and against Oregon in their non-covering OT win at Purdue). The Sooners are also just 5-18 ATS as a favorite of 24 points or more following consecutive wins and they will probably be looking past this game towards next week showdown with rival Texas. Baylor, meanwhile, applies to a solid 83-40-5 ATS situation that plays on good running teams as underdogs of 24 points or more. Underrated Baylor is 2-0 ATS with Griffin starting at quarterback and Oklahoma is due for a letdown (and Baylor is likely to cover even if the Sooners don’t letdown). I’ll take Baylor in a 2-Star Best Bet at +24 points or more and for 3-Stars at +27 or more.
2 Star Selection
** NORTH CAROLINA (-7.0) 33 Connecticut 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Both of these teams will be using quarterbacks getting their first starts of the season, but North Carolina is most likely to be successful in this game. Connecticut ’s Tyler Lorenzen, knocked of last week’s game, will miss most of the season and will be replaced by highly touted passing quartertback Zach Frazer, who transferred from Notre Dame. Frazer is likely going to be a better passing quarterback than Lorenzen was, but the Huskies will miss Lorenzen’s 236 yards on 35 rushing plays. Overall, I’ll call for the Huskies to be a bit better with Frazer than they were with Lorenzen, which puts U Conn’s attack (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) about 0.4 yppl better than average for this game. U Conn is known as a good defensive team and they’ve only give up 14.2 points per game, but the Huskies are actually below average on a yards per pass play basis after factoring in the schedule of most weak offensive teams. U Conn has yielded 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team and the 6.4 yppl that they’ve allowed Baylor and Louisville the last 2 weeks is more indicative of the struggles they’re really having on defense (Baylor and Louisville would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team). North Carolina’s offense was hurt by the injury to starting quarterback T.J. Yates and backup Mike Paulus was horrible in his place (23 yards on 14 pass plays), but veteran Cameron Sexton came off the bench last week to lead the comeback over Miami last week with 242 yards on 19 pass attempts and 2 touchdown passes. Sexton was thrown into the lineup as a freshman back in 2006 and struggled in a bad offense (5.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average QB), but his numbers actually weren’t that bad for a freshman and North Carolina has a much better system under Butch Davis and more weapons at the receiver position than they had in 2006. I don’t expect Sexton to play at the level he played last week, or even at the level that Yates was playing at, but he should be above average throwing the ball while North Carolina’s ground attack does some damage against a U Conn defensive front that’s allowed 5.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would average just 4.5 yprp against an average team. While Connecticut has the undeserved reputation of being good defensively, the Tar Heels actually are good defensively, allowing just 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. UNC also has much better special teams with Brandon Tate averaging 28.5 yards per kick return and an incredible 28.2 yards per punt return. My math model favors North Carolina by 13 points in this game after making the appropriate adjustments (it favored UNC by 16 points without those adjustments) and Connecticut applies to a negative 18-64 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s lucky upset win at Louisville (U Conn was out-gained 289 yards at 4.8 yppl to 508 yards at 7.2 yppl by Louisville). I’ll resist making UNC a 3-Star, even at -7 or less, because of the higher level of uncertainty of exactly how well each new quarterback will perform (although Sexton was clearly better last week). I’ll take North Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less.
2 Star Selection
** ARIZONA (-21.5) 42 Washington 10
04:30 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Washington is loaded with underclassmen on a defensive unit that has allowed 7.7 yards per play (to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team) and Arizona’s spread passing attack should move the ball at will (Washington has allowed 9.6 yards per pass play). While Arizona is known for Willie Tuitama and the pass attack, it is the Wildcats’ defense that has really shined, as that unit has yielded just 3.9 yppl (to a schedule of teams that would average 4.8 yppl against an average team) and 15.5 points per game. The 36 points that Arizona allowed to New Mexico is misleading given that the Lobos averaged a sub-par 5.2 yppl in that game (Arizona turned the ball over 5 times are were -4 in turnovers, but have only committed 2 total turnovers in their other 3 games). Washington will be without dynamic quarterback Jake Locker for awhile, but sophomore Ronnie Fouch will probably be a better passing quarterback than Locker was (Fouch has averaged 6.1 yards on 50 pass plays while Locker had averaged just 4.2 yppp), but Locker was the team’s leading rusher last season and this season and those yards are not going to be replaced. Overall, I actually rate the Washington offense as better with Fouch given how poorly Locker was throwing the ball, but Fouch will probably struggle in this game against an Arizona secondary that has yielded just 3.3 yppp in 4 games (to teams that would average 5.2 yppp against an average defensive team). Arizona ’s pass defense actually ranks as #2 in the nation in my ratings and covering Washington ’s only legitimate threat at wide receiver, D’Andre Goodwin, will be easier with Goodwin attempting to play with his injured ribs. Goodwin has 27 catches for 315 yards and the #2 pass catcher on the team has just 11 receptions for 128 yards, so it would hurt the Huskies if Goodwin is not able to play up to his normal standards. Washington isn’t likely to take advantage of a mediocre Wildcats run defense given that the Huskies have averaged just 3.5 yards per rushing play after taking out Locker’s contributions. In addition to being overmatched on both sides of the ball, the Huskies have horrible special teams while Arizona excels in that department. My math model favors Arizona by 32 points and the Huskies apply to a negative 31-70-2 ATS situation that is based on their poor recent defensive performances. I’ll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less and for 3-Stars at -21 or less.
2 Star Selection
** Hawaii 24 FRESNO ST. (-22.0) 37
07:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Hawaii is 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS against Division 1A competition this season, but the Rainbow Warriors are now an underrated team. Hawaii has been out-scored by an average of 17.0 points per game in 4 games despite averaging 5.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.0 yppl on defense. The reason for the large negative scoring differential is a -15 in turnover margin in those 4 games, but it’s nearly impossible to continue to be so negative in turnovers and the point spread for this game hasn’t taken that into account. Hawaii matches up very well with Fresno State from a yards per play perspective, as Warriors have actually been 0.3 yppl better than average offensively when either Tyler Graunke or Inoke Funaki are in at quarterback (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while the banged up Fresno State defense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and getting worse with the injuries to DT Jon Monga and LB Nick Bates (the Bulldogs allowed 982 yards at 6.7 yppl the last two weeks to Toledo and UCLA, who would average just 5.4 yppl against an average team). Fresno has made up for their bad defense with a good offense that rates at 0.9 yppl better than average (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but Hawaii should be able to slow that attack with a stop unit that’s given up just 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. Hawaii has faced two very good offensive teams in Florida and Oregon State , both on the road, and the Warriors allowed 6.3 yppl to the Gators and Beavers, who would combine to average 6.7 yppl at home against an average team. Hawaii is clearly better than average defensively and the Warriors actually have an overall advantage over Fresno State from the line of scrimmage. Fresno has a huge edge in this game in special teams (about 9 points) and my math model projects the Bulldogs to be +1.5 in turnover margin. Even with those edges, the math still only favors Fresno State by 13 points in this game and Hawaii should cover the spread even if they are -3 in turnovers (which would be an improvement over their -3.75 TO margin average). I’ll take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Penn St. (-13.5) 41 PURDUE 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Penn State failed to cover by 1 point in last week’s 38-24 win over Illinois , but the Nittany Lions continued to play well as they out-gained the Illini 6.9 yards per play to 5.6 yppl. For the season Penn State has averaged 7.3 yppl while allowing just 3.9 yppl while facing a schedule that would average 5.0 yppl and allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Those numbers show that Penn State has been 2.9 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage and that is not just a function of facing a few bad teams. The Nittany Lions have out-gained good teams Oregon State and Illinois 6.9 yppl to 5.1 yppl, which is very good considering that the Illinis and the Beavers would combine to out-gain an average team 6.0 yppl to 5.0 yppl on the road. So Penn State is 2.8 yppl better than average in those two games, which is about the same as their overall season rating. Purdue, meanwhile, has been a below average team – rating at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively in their 4 games. The big problem for the Boilermakers in this game is their horrible run defense (5.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average just 4.4 yprp against an average team) going up against a great Penn State offensive line that is paving the way for 273 yards per game at 6.6 yprp (against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp). Penn State ’s offense should move the ball at will while their sturdy defense limits a mediocre Purdue attack. Purdue did manage to cover as a home underdog against Oregon, but the Boilermakers gave up 306 yards at 7.1 yprp to the Ducks in that game and were lucky to be close while getting out-gained by 1.2 yppl in that game. I would love to play Penn State here but the Nittany Lions apply to a negative 5-30 ATS subset of a 28-68-2 ATS letdown situation that will keep me from making this game a Best Bet. Penn State does apply to a 90-36-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Lions are 17-5-1 ATS, but I must respect the strong situation going against them even though I can’t see how they won’t win by at least two touchdowns. I’ll consider Penn State a Strong Opinion at -14 or less and I’d take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Strong Opinion
KANSAS ST. 33 Texas Tech (-7.0) 34
12:30 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Texas Tech has not been as good away from home (25-28 ATS) as they have been at home (27-17-2 ATS) under coach Mike Leach and the Red Raiders haven’t been as good following a victory (26-33-1 ATS) as they have been following a loss (21-10 ATS). Tech is just 14-24 ATS away from home when not coming off a loss, including 10-21 ATS against teams with a win percentage of at least .333 (2-12 ATS since 2005). Off back-to-back wins that record gets even worse, as Leach’s team is just 1-14 straight up and 3-12 ATS on the road after consecutive wins against a team with a win percentage of .333 or higher – including 1-12 ATS if not an underdog of more than 18 points (0-7 ATS since 2004). That includes an 0-2 straight up record as a favorite of 6 points or more, with one of those being a loss as a 23 point favorite. Now that we’ve established the fact that Texas Tech is in a situation in which they normally don’t cover, I can start to argue that they shouldn’t be favored by as much as they are in this game. Kansas State ’s defense has been ripped apart the last two weeks by Louisville and UL Lafayette, but most of that damage was on the ground, as those teams combined for 682 rushing yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play against the Wildcats. Kansas State has been good against the pass this season (4.5 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppp against an average team) and they allowed a reasonable 6.0 yppp in those last two games, which is pretty good considering that Louisville and UL Lafayette would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team. While Kansas State ’s run defense is a problem for them, that problem won’t be completely exploited this week by a Texas Tech offense that has thrown the ball on 67% of their plays this season. The Red Raiders have been good running the ball when they do decide to put it on the ground and my math model projects 211 rushing yards for them in this game, but Kansas State should limit Tech’s aerial attack to a modest average. My math projects Tech to gain 486 total yards at 6.9 yards per play, but Kansas State can come close to matching those numbers. Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman is having an incredible season, averaging 9.6 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average QB, and the Wildcats have averaged 7.0 yppl when Freeman has been on the field (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). Texas Tech is a solid defensive team, but the Red Raiders are 0.5 yppl better than average on defense, which is not close to how good the Wildcats are offensively. My math projects 442 yards at 6.3 yppl for Kansas State and the Wildcats are among the best in the nation in special teams again this season. My ratings favor Texas Tech by just 3 points in this game and that doesn’t take into account the fact that the Red Raiders don’t play as well away from home (or the fact that Kansas State is 74-34 ATS at home since 1990). Texas Tech’s only road game was a lucky cover at Nevada in which Tech only out-gained the Wolf Pack 6.2 yppl to 6.0 yppl as a 10 ½ point favorite. I’ll consider Kansas State a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Navy 27 AIR FORCE (-5.0) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Navy matches up very well with Air Force on both sides of the ball. Navy’s option rushing attack has averaged an incredible 6.8 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and that attack matches up well against an Air Force defense that has been good in pass defense but has been horrible against the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team). The Falcons are 0.1 yppl better than average overall defensively, but they are worse than average against a team that runs the ball 86% of the time. Navy’s defense, meanwhile, is horrible against the pass (7.4 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.6 yppp against an average team), but the Middies are pretty good against the run (4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.3 yprp against an average team) – which matches up perfectly against an Air Force option attack that runs the ball 87% of the time. So, Air Force is a team that isn’t likely to take advantage of Navy’s bad pass defense while also not being able to defend what Navy does on offense. My math model takes into account such match-ups and the math favors Navy to win this game. Sadly, there is a negative 21-67-1 ATS letdown situation that applies to Navy and is based on their upset win over Wake Forest . That situation is enough to keep me from being on Navy as a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Navy a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
TCU (-24.0) 38 San Diego St. 9
03:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
TCU applies to a very strong 74-17-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while San Diego State applies to a negative 64-146-1 ATS road letdown situation. While the technical analysis is strongly in the favor of the Horned Frogs I am not confident in their ability to take advantage of a bad San Diego State defense (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team). TCU will surely be able to run the ball, as the Aztecs are particularly bad defending the run (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average team), but TCU’s offense is 0.7 yppl worse than average and my math model projects only 34 points for the Frogs. TCU does have a very strong defense that’s allowed just 4.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average stop unit and my math projects just 14 points for the Aztecs in this game. However, the math favor TCU by just 20 points and the negative line value makes it tough to back the Frogs as a Best Bet in this game even though the technical analysis is so strongly in their favor. My overall analysis gives TCU a solid 54% chance to cover at -24 ½ points and a 56.7% chance at -24 points and I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Northern Ill 14 TENNESSEE (-16.0) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Even with two losses behind them, the Volunteers may have trouble dipping into the emotional well after SEC games with Florida and Auburn and with a trip to Georgia next week. If the Vols do play with some intensity I still don’t think they’ll cover the big spread with a bad offense (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) going up against a pretty solid Northern Illinois defense that’s allowed just 4.7 yards per play this season (to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average team). The Huskies are coming off a 37-0 road win at Eastern Michigan and road underdogs coming off a road shutout win are 30-8 ATS since 1980. Northern Illinois has been better than average offensively this season (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team), but most of the aerial damage was done by injured starter Chandler Harnish, who was having a great start to his career before getting hurt in game 2. Veteran Dan Nicholson was 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average for his career entering this season and he’s 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average on 59 pass plays (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB) since taking over for Harnish. Northern Illinois is a decent running team (5.4 yprp against teams that would allow 5.6 yprp), but Tennessee is strong defensively (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) and my math model projects only 233 total yards at 3.6 yppl for the Huskies in this game. Tennessee is at a major disadvantage in special teams with their backup punter and poor punt coverage (28.0 net punting) going up against a Northern Illinois punt return team that has caused opponents to net just 26.6 net yards per punt. The Huskies’ punt team has averaged 41.7 net yards per boot while the Vols’ punt return team has allowed opponents to net 38.0 yards per punt. With all the punting that’s going to be going on for both sides in this game, that turns into a significant advantage for Northern Illinois and is likely to keep Tennessee in bad field position with an offense that won’t move the ball that easily. I’ll consider Northern Illinois a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I’d take the Huskies in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UL Lafayette (-2.5) 37 UL MONROE 28
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
UL Lafayette is a very good offensive team by national standards (not just by Sun Belt standards), as the Ragin’ Cajuns have averaged 6.4 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. That average is skewed by a 667 yard at 9.0 yppl game against Kent State, but UL Lafayette just gained 509 yards at 6.4 yppl on the road against at Kansas State last week and their median offensive game rating is 0.6 yppl better than average. That unit should move the ball at easily against a UL Monroe defense that’s allowed 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average team. Monroe is decent offensively, rating at 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and they’ll have pretty good success against a Lafayette defense that has been 0.6 yppl worse than average this season (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl). UL Lafayette is better on both sides of the ball and in special teams and I’ll consider UL Lafayette a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2008 2:09am -
0 likes
Alan Eastman
$1000 Take #338 Vanderbilt (+4) over Auburn (6 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
This is our NCAA Game of the Month and I think it's a game that the Commodores win outright. Auburn's offense has not proven that it can score points efficiently enough to where they should be laying points on the road. They are very shaky at the quarterback position and People keep betting against Vandy and the 'Dores just keep covering the spread. They remind me a bit of Virginia last year in that people keep playing against them waiting for their luck to change, but the Commodores, like the Cavs, will just keep finding ways to win (and cover). The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series and Vanderbilt is 5-2 ATS in SEC play. Auburn embarrassed Vanderbilt last year, but they are going to find out that this is a much better Vandy team.
$300.00 Take #310 Utah (-11) over Oregon State (9 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 2)
I think that the Beavers are set for a letdown and I think that the the line movement on this game told us everything we need to know. This line steamed over three points on the side of the Utes. We are also going to keep playing a trend that we've noticed in this early season, and that is that the home teams in the primetime games are 8-2-1 ATS to this point.
$500.00 Take #331 Texas Tech (-7.5) over Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
We've seen the Wildcats enough this year to know that they aren't very good, and people haven't seen the Red Raiders enough this year to realize just how good they are. The Red Raiders boast one of the best passing offenses in the country, but look for them to be able to move the ball easily on the ground against the No. 107 rated rush defense in the country. Basically, I think that Tech can move the ball at will and I don't think that the Wildcats will be able to score enough points to keep up. Texas Tech is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and I think they win this one in blowout fashion.
$300.00 Take #340 Illinois (+2.5) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
The Wolverines managed a pretty luck win at home against Wisconsin last week when the Badgers started to look ahead to Ohio State in the second half. That won't happen with Illinois, which is a bit undervalued because they've lost some road games to some of the top teams in the country (Missouri, Penn State). I don't think that Michigan will be able to handle the speed that the Illini bring to this game, and I think that Illinois defense is going to be able to handle the slow, weak spread offense that the Wolverines are trying to run.
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2008 2:10am -
0 likes
power sweep
4* Michigan 30-20
3* Florida St. 21-17
3*Tulane 38-10
2*Notre Dame 34-17
2*Duke + 20-24
2*Western Mich. 30-16
Underdog Toledo +7 34-31
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
TOLEDO (+7) over Ball St
Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 180-124. Over the
last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 28 OUTRIGHT UPSET
WINNERS to the incredible record including last week with Michigan over
Wisconsin! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:
BSU won at UT in ‘06 snapping a 5 game losing streak in the Glass Bowl. The HT is 11-3-1 SU winning
the L/11 by 20 ppg. LY at Muncie, Toledo had a 313-206 yd edge at the half in a 20-20 gm but thanks in
part to losing their QB to inj, did not score in the 2H and lost 41-20. BSU is 14-3 ATS on the road while
UT is 41-8 SU at home but has suffered 2 straight losses for the first time S/’85. UT, after almost upsetting
#25 Fresno St, was favored (-20) over FIU and led 13-0 but gave up 4 TO’s and despite 20-12 FD and
302-239 yd edges lost 35-16 as they all’d 4 TD drives that started in their own territory. UT played without
leading rusher Collins (360, 8.2, CS). UT QB Opelt is avg 182 ypg (57%) with a 7-2 ratio. BSU QB Davis
is avg 284 ypg (71%) with an 11-3 ratio. RB Lewis leads the tm with 645 yds (5.
. BSU is 5-0 SU and3-1 ATS incl 2-0 SU in MAC play. The Cardinals had 26-18 FD and 423-353 yd edges winning 41-20 over
Kent but failed to cover as a 22 pt HF. UT is 1-0 SU & ATS in MAC play so the winner here will have a
step up in the MAC West race. BSU has the off (#28-57) and def (#83-94) edges but UT has played the
much tougher schedule (#42-105). On Sept 20th, Toledo (+7) delivered an Underdog Play Winner and
an almost outright upset of Fresno St (54-55) in this very spot. FORECAST: TOLEDO 34 Ball St 31
4* MICHIGAN over Illinois - LY with the game tied mid-4Q, IL fmbl’d a punt to set up a UM TD as
they lost 27-17 (+1). UM is 39-4-2 SU vs IL. IL is 5-2 as an AD (1-1 TY) but on its 2nd straight road trip
and this is Zook’s 1st trip to the Big House. Mich won as an Underdog POW on these pages and a 4H
LPS in the biggest UM comeback in Michigan Stadium history as they trailed Wisky 19-0 at the half.
Five UM 1H TO’s set up the Badgers but the Wolves, who had just 21 1H yds, exploded in the 2H for
247 yds & 27 pts (1 IR TD). Threet had a season high 58 yd run vs the Badgers but UM is #109 in the
NCAA in pass eff & #110 in ttl off. Wolves D allows 89 rush ypg (2.3) with 14 sks. IL lost at PSU 38-24
as they went for it on 4th & 2 at their own 48 early 3Q but were SOD and all’d 94 yd KR TD. QB Williams
avg 226 ypg (59%) with a 9-6 ratio and 283 rush yds. RB Dufrene (396, 6.7) suffered a shoulder inj LW
(CS). Illini allow 183 rush ypg (4.
. Wolves shutdown Williams & Co and take adv of a porous Illini D.FORECAST: MICHIGAN 30 Illinois 20
3* Florida St over MIAMI, FL - This used to be one of the top rivalries but both have gone thru a
downturn recently (LY was 1st meeting S/’77 that neither ranked). This game is always close with the
L/7 decided by 4.4 ppg and none by more than 8. FSU was in control on LY’s game but let it slip away
(see PH) as FSU led 29-24 & UM scored 2 TD’s in :11 w/1:05 left. Miami is 7-2 SU in the series. FSU
won their last trip here in ‘06 13-10 (+3’) in a D struggle (176-134 yd edge, two tms 17 comb FD’s).
Shannon is 0-5 ATS in ACC HG’s with 4 upset losses as they were upset LW 28-24 (-8) vs NC. QB Marve
is avg 139 ypg (66%) with a 5-3 ratio. FSU is 5-9 as an AF. LW the Noles defeated Colorado 39-21 in
Bowden’s 500th game as a HC giving us our Sept GOM 5H Winner. FSU has a solid off and ST’s edge
(off #30-64, ST #37-73) but these 2 matchup pretty evenly on D (FSU #14-17). FSU QB Ponder is avg
137 ypg (51%) with a 6-4 ratio. RB Smith has rushed for 302 yds (5.7). FSU receives their final player
back from susp and you saw what they could do with their full compliment of players. The speedy D will
frustrate rFr QB Marve. FORECAST: Florida St 21 MIAMI, FL 17
3* TULANE over Army - This will be the first game at the outdoor Gormley Stadium S/‘04 and is HC.
Tulane is 5-1-1 SU at home vs Army (avg score 30-16) and the last trip here we used a 3H LPS on
Tulane (-5’) and they won easier than the 42-28 final with a 35-16 FD edge. LY was a tough loss for TU
as they led by 10 w/2:00 left but Army tied it on a Hail Mary and won in OT. TU had a 401-240 yd edge
and the departed RB Forte rushed for 202. That was Army’s last win as they have dropped 10 str. Army
is off their best off perf of the yr as their new option off finally started clicking. QB Bowden, in his first
start, led with 128 yds (3.
. They were only outgained 290-284 and had a 21-14 FD edge. The Knightshad just 1 TO, but A&M returned that fmbl 58 yds for a TD and held on to win 21-17, but Army easily
got their 1st cover of the yr (+28). Tulane does have 2 extra days to prep, which is always a plus, and is
all’g just 69 ypg rush (2.
. They led SMU 31-7 at the half but had to hang on to win 34-27 as we wona Thur Night Marquee Play on SMU (+18). Tulane has played the tougher schedule (#59-111), has the
better off (#90-120) and D (#52-102) and catches Army in 2nd of B2B AG’s in a situation where they
had a disappointing finish in a competitive gm vs A&M. FORECAST: TULANE 38 Army 10
OTHER SELECTIONS
2H*NOTRE DAME over Stanford - This marks the12th straight year these 2 have met with ND winning
the L/6 SU (last loss hosting Stanford was in ‘92) while going 4-2 ATS. Irish QB Clausen (275 pass yds,
3 TD) and RB Allen (134 rush yds) recorded career highs allowing ND to pull away in the 2H vs Pur
while delivering a 3H LPS Winner. The Irish have gone 25-12-1 SU & 23-15 ATS all-time vs the P10
but Weis has struggled as a HF going just 3-8 ATS. These schools combined for 6 TO’s, 5 missed FG’s,
4 plays overturned by replay & 9 PF’s LY with ND actually the underdog on the road in their 21-14 win
(+4’).The Cardinal are in their 4th RG in 5 weeks and now travel to the Midwest in a P10 sandwich after
gaining a ssn best 466 yds vs a weak Husky defense as bkup RB Kimble marched for a career-high
157 yds replacing an inj’d RB Gerhart (concussion-CS) midway through the 1Q. While the dog in this
series has gone 6-3 ATS in recent years, the resurgent Irish should be too much for the road weary
Cardinal in this one. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 34 Stanford 17
2* Duke (+) over GEORGIA TECH - The winner in this series has won by DD 19 of 22 gms (86%). GT
is 12-1 SU in the series, has won 6 straight in Atl, is off a bye and only has a IAA foe on deck. Duke DC
MacIntyre played football for GT for 2 years. Duke got some excellent prep work for this as they faced
Johnson’s old team Navy (held Midshipmen to a ssn low 13 FD’s & 207 rush yds) on Sept 13 and has
a bye next week. Since Duke upset GT in ‘03 the Wreck has won the L/4 by 22 ppg. Johnson is 4-9 as
a HF and Cutcliffe is 4-2 as an AD but this is their road opener. GT is avg 307 rush pg (#5 NCAA). GT
is holding opp’s to just over 14 ppg and has been especially aggressive creating TO’s (11). QB Nesbitt
suffered a hamstring 2 wks ago but Johnson said he could be back vs Duke. On the season Nesbitt
is avg 140 ypg ttl off. RB Dwyer has 389 rush yds (8.1). GT has the edge on both sides of the ball (off
#31-77, def #40-46). Duke is 1 holding pen away from being unbeaten. They snapped a 25 gm ACC
losing streak with their 31-3 win over UVA LW & are off to their best start S/’94. QB Lewis is #2 in the
ACC avg 219 ypg (61%) with a 7-2 ratio. WR Riley has 22 rec (12.2). Duke is a much improved team
allowing 117 less ypg than LY. Duke showed LW that they’re learning how to win under SEC Coach
Cutcliffe and takes the next step. FORECAST: Duke 20 (+) GEORGIA TECH 24
2* W MICHIGAN over Ohio - The Bobcats are 2-9 SU visiting Kalamazoo with wins in ‘96 & ‘98. Last
met in ‘06 and Ohio, despite just 10 FD, still won at home 27-20 (+4). This is HC for WM and their only
IA HG in a 2 month span so the fans should be hungry. Ohio is 1-4 SU (only win vs IAA tm) with their
avg loss by 6 ppg but is 4-1 ATS. WM is 4-1 SU but 1-3 ATS. WM was avg over 36 ppg but was held to
just 7 pts vs Temple. Ohio is 0-1 SU in MAC play and WM is 2-0 SU in MAC play (0-2 ATS) winning by
a comb 7 pts. Despite having just 35 yds vs TU LW, WM RB West leads w/467 (5.
which is more thantwice the rest of the tm combined. WM QB Hiller avg 271 ypg (70%) with a 15-3 ratio. Ohio QB Jackson
in his 3 starts is avg 293 ypg (63%) with a 6-2 ratio. The Bobcats top rusher is Harden with 274 (5.3).
The Broncos have a slight def edge (#65-71) and a bigger off edge (#67-101). WM came up flat vs the
Owls without their starting QB but now stay focused at home. Nothing wrong with their D as they’ve
held their L/2 opp to 23 ttl FD’s and 474 combined yds. FORECAST: W MICHIGAN 30 Ohio 16
Thursday, October 2nd -
Pittsburgh at USF - LY USF rallied from a 14-7 deficit. They outscored Pitt 38-23 in
the 2H & got IR TD’s by Allen & Williams & an int by Moffit down to the 1. Each of the 5 gms has been decided
by 9 pts or more. Pitt is 4-1 ATS as an AD while USF is 6-1 at home in BE play (3-0 conf opener). The key to
this game will be D with USF’s #16 D facing our #32 D. Both teams are off solid wins and have a bye on deck.
LY Pitt went into Morgantown and upset #2 WV so they will be confident vs the #10 tm in the nation.
Memphis at UAB - LY UM won the “Battle of the Bones†to mark the 1st time the 100 lb bronze rack of ribs
headed to Memphis. Before LY’s loss, UAB had reeled off 7 straight wins SU and ATS vs UM but Mem had a
563-338 yd edge in the win. UAB is 4-9 SU and ATS in CUSA HG’s. Memphis is 1-5 as an AF in 5 yrs. UAB is
8-4-1 as a HD. Memphis is off a win over Ark St, in which they outgained ASU 453-352. The Tigers are 19-29
off a SU win under HC West. UAB is coming off a 26-13 loss to S Car, where they hung around, but were
outgained 353-207. UAB is 0-2 off a SU loss TY, but the home tm has covered 3 out of 4 in this series.
Oregon St at UTAH - LY UT travelled to Corvallis in the opener but lost QB Johnson and RB Asiata
in the 1H (inj). It was 7-7 at half but OSU took adv in the 2H and won 24-7. UT is 5-8 (2-1 TY) ATS vs
non-conf under Whittingham. OSU is off its huge win vs USC (1st time in 41 yrs OSU knocked off a #1
tm) outgaining them 343-313 and are now loaded with confidence. UT may have been caught looking
ahead LW in their 37-21 win over IAA Weber St. After WSU tied it 7-7, UT rattled off 30 straight pts
& finished with a 450-359 yd edge (WSU garbage yds). These two match up pretty evenly on off (UT
#24-27) and D (OSU #23-26) but UT has a huge ST’s edge (#11-111).
Friday, October 3rd - Cincinnati at MARSHALL - These schools are just 153 miles apart but have only
met 3 times S/‘46, two of those in bowls (‘00 & ‘04). Marshall is 6-1-1 as a HD. LY the Herd appeared
to have the cover trailing 26-14 in the 4Q (+24) but Cincy got 2 late TD’s. LW Cincy QB Pike broke his
non-throwing arm in their 17-15 win over Akron. Mar is off a poor off showing in their 27-3 loss to WV.
Their top 3 threats (Marshall, Passmore & Slate) were all limited in the loss. Cincy is 5-10 as an AF but
Kelly is 7-2 ATS in non-conf play. This is the Bearcats’ 1st trip to Huntington.
Byu at UTAH ST - BYU is 18-1 SU S/’83 vs the Aggies with the only loss (58-56) here in ‘93. The Cougars
have won 9 of the L/11 SU in Logan, but in their L/2 trips here, they were 17 pt AF & barely escaped
winning 34-31 in 2OT (‘99) & 35-34 (‘02). USU is 2-8 ATS as a HD while BYU is 7-4 ATS as an AF under
HC Mendenhall. USU’s dual-threat QB Borel (123 ypg, 55%, 5-2 ratio, 217 rush) helped spark the Aggies
to their first win of the yr, but USU’s D will be hard-pressed to slow down BYU’s high-octane off (481 ypg)
led by Heisman hopeful QB Hall who is avg 321 ypg (74%) with a 15-2 ratio. The Cougars have been stellar
outscoring their L/2 foes 103-0 to post B2B shutouts (first time S/’85) & BYU has yet to give up a sack. The
Cougars own the nation’s longest current win streak (14). Both tms are off byes & have conf gms on deck.
Saturday Games -
Boston College 21 NC STATE 17 - The Eagles defeated their former HC & the
Wolfpack 37-17 in the 1st meeting since O’Brien left for Raleigh but did benefit from +6 in TO’s (NCSt
407-373 yd edge). BC leads the series 3-2 but the HT is 3-0 in ACC play & the Eagles are 0-6 as an AF.
NCSt got a 34 yd TD pass on the final play to upset O’Brien’s BC team here in ‘06. This is the first true
road game for BC QB Crane and on the season he is avg 115 ypg (52%) with a 2-5 ratio. True Fr RB
Harris (PS#159) has 276 rush yd (7.7). BC’s D is #2 in the NCAA only allowing 6.5 ppg & are only all’g
253.5 ttl ypg while NCSt is all’g 401 ypg & 30 ppg (our ranking off BC #85-92, def #20-85). NCSt has
been plagued with inj’s and were w/o probably their top offensive & defensive players, QB Wilson and
LB Irving (CS). Wilson’s fill-in QB Beck avg 118 ypg (45%) with a 2-6 ratio. RB Brown has 320 rush yds
(4.4). Both tms have a bye next week. This is a an emotional game for O’Brien who left a BC team that
went to the ACC Title game that year for a struggling Wolfpack squad.
WEST VIRGINIA 31 Rutgers 14 - WV has won 13 in a row SU in the series. LY on a rain soaked field
RU took the field in all black uniforms for the 1st time ever. We used a 4H LPS on WV and a 3H Key in
PS. RU QB Mike Teel was playing with a bruised throwing hand but his rec’s dropped 7 passes. WV won
31-3 (-6’) on the road. We won with our 5H College Game of the Year on WV (-13’) 37-13 in 1987. LW
WV rushed for over 300 yds for the 2nd straight week in their 27-3 win over Marshall. They squandered
many chances to pile on pts and also took a knee at the MU5 to end the game. Rutgers got their 1st win
of the year vs Morgan St 38-0. An offense that has struggled (40 pts 1st 3)only put up 297 yds vs IAA
opponent. WV has the off edge (#29-86), def (#29-50) and home edge. The visitor is 6-0 ATS and WV is
1-5 as a Big East HF but Rut is 11-19 as a BE AD. WV looks to be back on track while Schiano tries to
keep his team from imploding as they might be on their way to a losing ssn.
Penn St 34 PURDUE 20 - PSt is 1-7 ATS (lost L/5) on the conf road but did win their last trip here (12-0,
-3’ in ‘06) in the lone shutout of Tiller’s career. LY PSt had a season high 29 FD’s vs Purdue but failed to
cover at home (see PH). Purdue is 10-1 SU in their Big Ten opener and has only been a Big Ten HD 9
times in 11 yrs (5-4 ATS). We went against Purdue LW winning a 3H LPS in a 38-21 loss at Notre Dame
in which the short handed Boilers D (minus starting 2 LB’s) couldn’t stop the Irish in the 3Q in which
they totalled 21 pts & 204 yds. The passing game hasn’t clicked as Painter is just #80 in the NCAA in
pass eff avg 278 ypg (57%) with a 5-4 ratio. PSt is off a 38-24 win over Illinois in which Williams (PS#1)
finally lived up to his HS hype with 241 all-purp yds & 3 TD’s including a 94 yd KR TD. QB Clark leads
the conf in pass eff avg 179 ypg (63%) with a 9-1 ratio. PSt’s D got a boost with the return of susp’d DL
Evans (12.5 sk in ‘07) & Koroma. The Lions have all of the edges (#8-52 off, #12-82 D & #5-33 ST’s) and
look like the top cats in the league right now.
MICHIGAN ST 24 Iowa 20 - LY Iowa QB Christensen threw for just 23 yds in reg but the Hawks won 34-27
in 2 OT’s (see PH) with Mich St blowing a 17-3 (252-71 yd edge) halftime lead. The home team has won 8 in
a row SU in the series. MSU is just 5-10 as a conf HF. MSU provided us with another 4H LPS Winner with a
42-29 win over Indiana LW. QB Hoyer took advantage of a banged up Hoosier secondary with 261 yds & 2
TD to compliment Ringer’s latest 40+ carry game (#2 NCAA with 897 yds). MSU’s D allows 123 rush ypg (4.4)
and now takes on the league’s 2nd leading rusher in 235 lb Greene (665, 6.7). Greene had his 5th straight
100 yd gm vs NW despite missing the final 12:00 due to a concussion. Iowa blew a 17-3 2Q lead thanks to 5
TO’s and ended the game throwing 4 straight incompletions at the NW 8. Iowa is allowing 100 rush ypg (3.1).
The Spartans have played a tougher sked (#45-83) as Hawks QB Stanzi will get his 1st road start.
MINNESOTA 38 Indiana 24 - The home team is 9-1 SU. Minny has won the L/2 in the dome by a combined
118-33 including 63-26 (-5’) in ‘06. Hoosiers last win here was in ‘93. LY Minny lost by 20 on the road but
was only outgained 463-402. The 2 have avg 69 ppg the L/7. IU is 3-11 ATS off a SU conf loss. Hoosiers’
QB Lewis has accounted for 353 ypg vs the Gophers in 2 career starts but was banged up (leg) in a 42-39
loss to Mich St. In that game IU had a 97 yd TD pass called back on a holding penalty in the EZ which
resulted in a safety. IU’s beaten up secondary (minus 3 starters) lost 2 more DB’s LW. Minny lost to 34-21 in
Columbus as the Gophers scored 2 4Q TD’s vs OSU’s reserves and allowed 279 rush yds including 97 to
OSU’s QB Pryor. QB Weber avg 231 ypg (70%) with an 8-2 ratio. WR Decker is the Big Ten’s #1 rec with 37
(13.7). This is Brew’s 1st as a B10 AF (0-1 AF LY) but the improved Gophers have edges all around (#47-54
off, #67-88 D, #38-78 ST & #48-108 sked) and need this one to get to the postseason.
Maryland 31 VIRGINIA 14 - LY Virginia needed a TD with :16 to pull out the 18-17 win (see PH). Maryland
is 4-12 SU vs the Cavs (1-7 SU here). The last time here the Terps rallied from a 20-0 HT deficit to beat the
Cavs 28-26 (-3). Groh is an outstanding 13-4 as a HD and Friedgen is 0-3 as an AF. MD upset then #20
Clemson LW which was helped by a 76 yd reverse by Heyward-Bey that set up the 1st of two 2H TDs in a
20-17 win (+11). On the year, Heyward-Bey has 12 rec (20.
. QB Turner is avg 152 ypg (58%) with a 6-5ratio. The Terps have a solid edge on both sides of the ball (off #46-109, def #60-72). UVA lost LW to Duke
ending their 25 ACC losing streak. UVA is really struggling this year and has been outscored 144-20. They
lost their starting QB Sewell prior to the year because of acads, QB Lalich was kicked off the team a few
week ago (QB Verica avg 117 ypg, 57%, 0-5 ratio). The Cavs have yet to establish a running game (only
avg 66 ypg - #117 NCAA) and now come home to a very unhappy crowd.
NORTH CAROLINA 30 Connecticut 16 - These 2 last met in ‘90 a 48-21 NC win over then IAA Conn.
The Huskies are 4-22-2 SU (8-9 ATS) vs current teams from the ACC including their 45-10 win over VA
in Wk 3. UC is just 5-11 as an AD and in the bowl (in NC) they lost to WF 24-10. NC is just 3-12 as a HF
and NC is 6-14 ATS at home vs non-conf. NC rallied from a 14 pt deficit to beat Miami, Fl 28-24 LW. QB
Sexton playing in place of inj’d Yates, threw for 242 yds (58%) and 3 TD’s. UNC Tate broke the NCAA’s
comb KR yd record and he’ll now face team all’g 24.1 on KR. Conn also is off an impressive win on the
road vs UL 26-21. The Huskies leaned on the NCAA’s leading rusher Brown who rushed for 190 (5.
after starting QB Lorenzen broke his foot. Notre Dame transfer Zach Frazer (PS#7) threw for 90 yds & a
TD and will make his 1st career start here. We’ll ride our #2 Most Improved Team over a Conn team that
has yet to prove themselves vs a strong opponent.
MISSISSIPPI 20 South Carolina 17 - Ole Miss has won 5 in a row SU vs SC and in their last meeting, upset
#25 ranked SC 31-28 (+16’) in Columbia in ‘04. UM DC Nix faces his former team (DC at SC ‘05-‘07). UM is
now 20-5 ATS vs ranked tms after their huge upset of #4 Florida LW and nearly upset then #20 WF earlier TY.
UM took adv of 3 UF TO as they pulled out a 1 pt win despite being outgained 443-325 and outFD’d 24-10. UM
outgained Vandy 385-202 but QB Snead threw 4 int and WR McCluster fmbl’d going into the EZ & UM lost by 6.
SC lost to Vandy by 7 despite a 325-225 yd edge as Vandy had a 3-1 TO edge in that gm. UM’s strength on D
is their DL which held Tebow to 7 net yds rush with 3 sks and harassed him all day. SC’s major weakness has
been the inconsistent OL which has all’d 17 sks (last in SEC). Spurrier’s QB carousel may stop on rFr Garcia
TW, who came in on the 2nd series vs UAB and hit 13-20 for 131 with a 1-1 ratio and also rushed for 86 yds &
a TD. QB Smelley (avg 169 pass ypg, 62%, with 6-6 ratio) has started the L/4 gms. UM QB Snead has avg 206
ypg (53%) with an 8-8 ratio but did throw 2 TD and ran for a TD vs FL. Spurrier is 10-4-1 ATS away but Miss is
12-5 as a HD incl 6-1 ATS as an SEC HD. SC is on a 2-7-2 ATS run. Both tms are better than their records and
both could legitimately be undefeated coming into this gm which means that both are “play on†teams.
Texas Tech 38 KANSAS ST 27 - In their last meeting (‘05), KSU all’d 669 pass yds (65%) on 47 of 72 passes
(all school records). TT is off a bye and is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS vs KSU with the avg win by 23 ppg under Leach.
QB Harrell leads a very potent off (573 ypg & 46 ppg) avg 393 ypg (65%) with a 12-3 ratio. WR Crabtree is
showing no soph slump with 29 rec (15.
& 6 TD. KSU held off ULL LW as they were outgained (all’d 509yds), but did lead 42-23 before garbage time. QB Freeman became KSU’s career yardage leader and is
avg 276 ypg (67%) with an 11-2 ratio. KSU is ranked #39 in our pass eff def all’g 164 ypg (56%) with a 5-2
ratio but the L/2 gms have been ripped for 638 rush yds (6.0). TT is 1-4 ATS on the B12 road & KSU is 9-3
ATS hosting conf foes. Both schools have played rather weak skeds, but TT has a solid D edge (#30-69)
all’g just 100 rush ypg (3.2) & is tied for #1 in the NCAA w/10 int. KSU did take out a #7 Texas tm LY in their
B12 opener but doesn’t have the firepower to trade scores with the Raiders.
Kansas 28 IOWA ST 21 - Both tms are off a bye and it will also double as their B12 opener. The HT is 13-
3-1 ATS but KU was -2 in their last trip here (‘06) and won easily 41-10. KU is on a 17-3 ATS run and under
Mangino is 5-1 as an AF. QB Reesing is avg 351 ypg (70%) with an 11-2 ratio. ISU is on a 6-2 ATS run and
Chizik is 4-1 ATS as a HD. Cyclones run a 2-QB system with Bates (303 ttl yds, #1 rusher) & Arnaud (161
ypg, 65%, 4-2 ratio), who did see most of the action in the 2H/OT of the UNLV gm. Jayhawks are avg 473
ypg, but have struggled running the ball (119 ypg, 3.4). Cyclones are ranked #61 in our pass eff def all’g
176 ypg (58%) with a 6-7 ratio, but have had trouble stopping the run (188 ypg, 5.2). KU has off (#25-78) &
def (#33-73) edges but has a tougher time than expected putting the scrappy Cyclones away.
Auburn 23 VANDERBILT 9 - LY AU led 35-0 before VU scored a TD w/4:57 left 4Q & AU had a 404-221
yd edge. Aub has won the last 3 by an avg of 37-7 and Aub won their last trip here 45-7 in ‘03. Vandy is 9-4
ATS vs SEC West and is off a bye. VU ranks last in the SEC in total off and def and has been outgained in
3 of their 4 gms but is undefeated thanks to a +9 TO margin (#1 NCAA). Vandy is 5-9 as a HD but defeated
SC (+9’) despite being outgained 325-225. VU QB Nickson is avg just 73 ypg pass (58%) with a 3-0 ratio
but also has 270 net rush yds (4.
. Nickson (shldr inj) missed the 2H vs Ole Miss but is expected to playvs Aub. VU’s top rusher is Hawkins (314, 4.7) & Vandy is #3 in the SEC in rushing (202 ypg, 4.6). Aub QB
Todd (163 ypg, 58%, 3-4 ratio) faces VU’s #2 pass eff D (54% all’d, 4-10 ratio). Aub RB Tate (393, 4.6) tms
with Lester (174, 4.1). Aub’s #6 D held Tenn to 191 total yds & 9 FD’s LW in their 14-12 win & produced the
gm winning pts on a FR in the EZ and now faces Vandy’s #89 off. Generally Vandy’s SEC HG’s feature more
fans of their opp’s than Vandy fans, but perhaps their 1st ranking S/’84 will bring out the Black & Gold for this
sold out ESPN night gm (1st time “Game Day†in Nashville). Auburn is off two huge gms vs LSU and Tenn
but is 8-5 as an SEC AF, and won’t overlook this ranked Vandy squad even with West rival Ark on deck.
Unlv 33 COLORADO ST 23 - CSU is 11-1 SU (5-8 ATS) in the series. LY they played in wind gusts up to 50
mph and UNLV lost 48-23 despite a 559-495 yd edge. CSU has won the L/2 here by 28 ppg. UNLV has not
been a conf AF S/’03 although they have played 2 BCS foes TY & covered both (incl ASU upset). LW Cal scored
on a blk’d P & IR to go up 14-0 early in their rout of CSU, 42-7. QB Farris was held to 96 pass yd but CSU
actually outgained Cal 351-348. On the yr Farris avg 220 ypg (66%) with a 4-5 ratio. The top rusher, Johnson,
has 300 yds (4.5) and WR Greer has 25 rec (14.4). Neither CSU or UNLV is blowing tms out as CSU’s MOV
in their 2 wins is by 6 pts & UNLV’s is 16 pts (5.3). UNLV jumped out to a 17-0 lead but once again all’d the
opp to battle back and this time Nev didn’t give LV the chance for OT. LV was outgained 620-381 in their 49-27
loss. QB Clayton threw his 1st int of the yr in the 4Q and is avg 221 ypg (59%) with a 12-1 ratio. Summers was
ineffective LW (20 yds) and now has 406 (4.3). The turning point in LV’s ssn has been the Nev gm as they are
a comb 1-14 SU after playing Nev the L/2Y. Sanford is well aware of that trend & will change it here.
MIAMI, OH 24 Temple 10 - In their only 2 meetings (‘05 & LY), MU has combined to outFD TU 46-22 &
outgain them 876-493 but the series is tied 1-1. Montgomery is 3-0-1 off a bye. MU was upset by TU on the
road LY 24-17 (+6). While MU had a 22-11 FD edge, most of their damage came during garbage time as
they trailed 24-7. TU is just 2-27 SU on the road and this is their first trip to Oxford. Temple is on their 4th
RG in 6 wks. TU lost starting QB DiMichele vs Penn St and he was also the top rusher at the time. RFr QB
Chester Stewart struggled in his first start vs WM throwing for just 60 yds (29 yds rush). TU was outgained
288-196 and outFD’d 18-10 but the D stepped up and held WM to just 7 pts. MU had several players banged
up going into the bye and should be healthier here. QB Raudabaugh is avg 244 ypg (59%) with a 4-5 ratio,
while RB Merriweather leads the tm with 260 yds (3.5). Both offenses have struggled (MU #104-116). TU
has played the tougher schedule (#32-92) but still has the stronger D (#57-96). This is MU’s MAC opener,
while TU is 0-2 SU in MAC gms but 2-0 ATS losing by a comb 6 pts.
Missouri 42 NEBRASKA 35 - We had a 4H LPS Winner on MO as Pinkel after LY’s 41-6 domination, “It
was as complete a gm as we’ve ply’d in a long time.†MO has been favored here once recently (‘04) and lost
24-3 (-2’) as NU delivered a 4H LPS Winner. In ‘06 we had NU (-4’) and they delivered easily won 34-20 as
our College GOY. We used ‘07’s gm as our B12 POW (75% Winners!) which is FREE the Full Service Line
every Friday. MO has not won in Lincoln S/’78 (15 losses by avg of 26 ppg). MO comes in with the #2 off
in the NCAA (596 ypg & 54 ppg). QB Daniel is avg 353 ypg (76%) with a 12-1 ratio. NU is off a nationally
televised night gm vs VT and they trailed in the 2H by DD’s as their comeback was all for naught (all’d 206
rush yds, 3.7). QB Ganz avg 249 ypg (64%) with a 7-4 ratio. The Huskers D is a lot better than LY (all’g 355
ypg, ranked #19 in pass eff def all’g 239 ypg, 57%, 2-5 ratio). The Tigers are off a bye and on a 17-3 SU &
14-4 ATS run outscoring foes by 23 ppg. HT has won 6 in a row SU & ATS covering by 15 ppg and we’ve
had a good pulse on this series.
Texas 31 COLORADO 17 - UT is 5-1 SU & ATS vs CU (avg W by 33 ppg) under Brown. In their last meeting
(‘05 B12 Title game) UT’s 70 pts was the highest S/’77 (70-3). We did win a Sept 5H in this series in ‘90 with
UT. Texas mauled Ark LW and has hung 42+ (4-0 ATS) on each opp w/an avg win by 39 pts. QB McCoy avg 255
ypg (80%) with a 14-1 ratio and leads the tm w/278 rush yds (8.2). The Buffs are back at home after a tough road
trip out east vs FSU (only 278 yds of off & trailed 25-7 after 3Q) as we won our 5H GOM on FSU. QB Hawkins
avg 202 ypg (64%) with a 9-4 ratio. UT is 1-6-1 as a B12 AF and 1-4 ATS before its RRR gm vs OU. CU did win
as a HD 2 wks ago vs #21 WV and LY took out a #3 OU squad 27-24 (+23). Texas does have a huge off edge
(#7-70). The Buffs are all’g 335 ypg (163 passing, 63%, 3-5 ratio) but the Horns are even better giving up just
303 ypg (53 ypg rush, 2.0) which should slow the Buffs rush attack & force CU to throw more than normal.
CALIFORNIA 34 Arizona St 20 - The Bears returned to their winning ways LW hammering CSU as they
scored TD’s on a PR, IR and a blocked punt. The win may have proved costly however as RB Best (421
rush yds, 7.1) left with an elbow inj (CS). Cal, who had won their previous 4 matchups SU & ATS vs ASU
by 25 ppg (2 upsets), had their streak snapped LY blowing a 20-14 HT lead on the road as the Sun Devils
moved to a perfect 8-0 on the ssn. ASU returns from a bye after their 2nd consec home loss at the hands
of UGA. ASU is on a 5-14 ATS run as a P10 AD but have won & covered their L/4 road openers by a 34-13
avg score with most of them coming later in the ssn. QB Carpenter has been sharp avg 296 ypg (69%) with
a 7-2 ratio but may struggle some here against a very underrated Cal secondary (#8 pass def) which has
all’d just 49% comp with a 3-8 ratio. There may be a possible QB controversy between starter Riley and bkup
Longshore. The home tm has covered 8 of the L/10 in this series giving the Bears the win here.
Florida 48 ARKANSAS 13 - The last meeting between these 2 tms was a 38-28 UF win in the ‘06 SEC
Champ gm. UF is 6-0 SU & ATS in SEC play vs Ark but is now 5-8 SU, 4-8-1 ATS vs SEC West tms after
LW’s upset loss to Ole Miss. UF had 443-325 yd and 24-10 FD edges but 3 TO’s cost them and UM blk’d
UF’s PAT w/3:28 left & held on for the win. Meyer is 3-7 as an SEC AF (but won L3), but this may be a flat
spot as they have “unbeaten letdown†plus a huge gm with LSU on deck. Ark is playing their 3rd consec gm
vs a Top 10 tm plus they have #13 Aub on deck. The Hogs have been outscored 101-24 the L2W all’g an
avg of 268 ypg rush (6.3) and haven’t covered a gm under Petrino yet. Ark all’d UT’s mobile QB McCoy to
rush for 84 yds (9.3) with 2 TD and he hit 17 of 19 for 185 yds & 3 TD’s. LY Ark finished #1 in our pass eff
D rankings, but TY they are #87 and face Tebow who has avg just 202 ypg (61%) with a 6-0 ratio plus 125
rush (2.6) but could boost his stats TW. Ark QB Dick has struggled the L2 wks and is avg 242 ypg (58%)
with a 5-4 ratio. RB Smith has 290 (5.4). Ark is 0-4 as a HD the L4Y. Florida has big edges on off (#10-72)
and def (#3-89) but their biggest is in ST’s (#1-113). UF was 3-0 ATS off a SU loss LY and Ark doesn’t have
the speed to keep this one close.
ALABAMA 27 Kentucky 10 - Kentucky is 2-33-1 SU all-time (0-19-1 on the road) vs Bama with the last UK
win coming in ‘97. The last meeting was a 45-17 Tide win in ‘04. UK has won B2B SEC openers (18 straight
losses prior to ‘06). Bama is 10-5 ATS the week prior to a bye, but 3-15 as a HF. Both tms have faced WKU
with UA winning 41-7 and UK winning 41-3 LW. Even though both teams come into this undefeated, this
will be a rude awakening for UK after opening with an avg Louisville tm, a IAA tm, and then 2 Sun Belt tms
while Bama has beaten 2 Top 10 tms already incl LW’s decisive win at #3 UGA. Bama QB JPW has avg just
149 ypg (63%) with a 6-1 ratio as RB Coffee (490, 7.0) leads the SEC in rushing. UA’s top receiver is PS#1
true frosh Jones (16, 14.1). The D’s are close with Bama (#10-22) having a slight edge, but UA has a huge
edge on off (#15-87) with UK relying on their def to win gms TY. UK QB Hartline is avg 158 ypg (59%) with
a 3-1 ratio. UK is avg 170 ypg rush (4.5) with 4 RB’s getting significant carries. UK’s top tkl’r MLB Johnson
sat out LW (ankle-CS). Though this could be a letdown spot for Bama off such a huge win, this is their SEC
home opener. The Tide crowd should be loud and Bama’s D should be disruptive for UK’s inexperienced
QB who has never started an SEC road game.
UCF 31 Smu 27 - LY, in the tms 1st ever meeting, UCF had 3 scoring plays of 72+ yds in a 49-20 rout. SMU
is on their 3rd road game in 4 wks and this is their 1st trip to Bright House Stadium, but the Mustangs are
9-3 as a CUSA AD. SMU is off a 34-27 loss at Tulane in which they were outgained 474-311, but outscored
TU 20-3 in the 2H. QB Mitchell threw two 2H TD’s as the Mustangs’ Run n’ Shoot off began to show some
signs of life. Mitchell avg 249 ypg (56%) with a 12-12 ratio (most int in NCAA). UCF is on a 3 game SU losing
streak and has yet to beat a IA team TY. LW they were beaten 58-13 on the road by a previously winless
UTEP team. UCF went with TrFr Rob Calabrese at QB and he struggled going 13-31 (42%) for 167 with a
1-2 ratio against our #91 pass eff D and the Knights turned the ball over 6x (2 FR for TD’s). UCF is just 11-16
off a SU loss under O’Leary and appears to be a team without an identity. The visitor is 12-2 ATS in SMU
games so look for HC Jones and the Mustangs’ improving offense to give UCF all they can handle.
BOWLING GREEN 41 E Michigan 13 - EM HC Genyk played QB at BG from 1978-‘81 and is 0-3 SU
but 2-1 ATS vs his alma mater. BG is 7-0 outscoring opp’s on avg 44-13 the L/7 HC gms. LY there were
5 lead changes & BG scored w/3:45 left for the win and cover 39-32 (-3’). Last trip here EM led but BG
got a 4Q TD for a 24-21 win (-10’). BG is 4-10 as a HF and Genyk is 10-4 as a MAC AD. While this is
BG’s MAC opener, EM is already 0-2 SU & ATS in MAC play being outscored by a comb 78-17. EM is
0-4 SU & ATS since opening the ssn with a win over IAA Indy St. QB McMahon who leads the tm with
115 ypg (62%) with a 2-4 ratio, made his 2nd start LW but was KO’d early (CS). QB Schmitt who has
3 starts TY but has been playing inj’d came in and threw for 140 yds (57%) with an 0-2 ratio. BG came
off a bye to destroy Wyom 45-16. They did have just 22-18 FD and 388-316 yd edges but were +4 TO.
BG has the better off (#60-111) and D (#68-109) despite playing the tougher schedule (#25-86). BG QB
Sheehan is avg 228 (63%) with a 4-3 ratio.
AIR FORCE 29 Navy 23 - Navy is 11-1 SU vs Service Academies the L/6Y winning 5 consec CIC Trophies.
AF was 19-2 from ‘82-‘02 vs Navy, but has lost a series high 5 str (by a comb 27 pts, avg score 27-21).
Navy is 24-11 (1-2 TY) as an AD. AF wants this bad despite Calhoun’s comments about de-emphasizing
the military gms. Their last time out, the Falcons lost their 1st home gm in Calhoun’s tenure, 30-23 vs Utah.
AF is off a bye while Navy is on their 4th AG in 5 wks and playing in altitude. LY we won with a 3H on these
pages on Navy (-2’) and while they trailed early 4Q they delivered a 31-20 win. Navy caught WF in a clear
letdown spot LW & got its 1st win over a ranked team in 23 yrs. The D, which had given up 76 pts in its
previous 2 outings, held WF to 17 pts and had 4 diff players snag int’s. QB Kaheaku-Enhada went out in
the 2Q (hamstring, CS) but the Midshipmen rode RB Kettani who finished with a career high 175 rush yds.
AF is 4-0 as a HF under Calhoun and has covered 10 straight reg ssn gms. Navy has just played 3 BCS
teams and AF will bring its “A+†game with an extra week to prepare.
Nevada 48 IDAHO 20 - UN leads the series 16-9 SU (4-2 ATS) winning 5 of 6 (4-2 ATS) by 31 ppg (avg
score 49-18). The Wolf Pack was 0-3 ATS as a WAC AF in ‘07 with all 3 decided by 3 or less. UN is 6-4 ATS
as an AF while UI is 3-7 ATS as a HD. UN defeated UI 45-7 (-10) in its last trip to Moscow (‘06). While the
Kibbie Dome is a unique facility, there has been little homefield edge. The Vandals have lost 7 consec home
WAC gms SU (1-6 ATS) by an avg of 18 ppg & UI is only 2-12 SU (4-10 ATS) vs IA tms at home. UI QB
Enderle is showing progress avg 165 ypg (54%) with a 7-7 ratio. His favorite target has been TE Williams
with 26 rec (13.
& 3 TD and he has nearly 3 times as many catches as the next closest receiver (9). UNhas the edge on off (#14-115) & def (#91-119). UN’s dual-threat QB Kaepernick is avg 179 ypg (62%) with
a 4-2 ratio & also leads the tm with 454 net yds rushing & 7 TD’s. He single-handedly dismantled UNLV LW
accounting for 416 ttl yds & 5 TD’s. Although the Wolf Pack RB corps has been hit hard by inj’s, the running
gm churned out 465 of UN’s 620 ttl yds LW. This is the Vandals’ only HG in a 5 week span & it’s sandwiched
between a pair of B2B road gms. The Pack attack a weak Vandals D.
TCU 34 San Diego St 10 - The Aztecs are 0-3 vs TCU being outscored on avg 40-18 and the HT is 3-0
ATS. LY SDSt gave up the most yds in school history (694) in a 45-33 loss (+12’). SDSt is 8-14-1 ATS in
MWC AG’s and lost their only trip here 52-0. TCU is 11-4 as a HF. SDSt is 1-4 ATS in conf openers. TCU is
a good tm that was made to look mediocre LW vs Okla. The Frogs entered w/just 1 TO (+12) but lost 4 incl
a fmbl at the OU35 and 2 int inside the OU15 in their 35-10 loss. QB Dalton did throw for a ssn high 212
yds (only 41%) but was held to 32 rush yds. On the yr he is avg 206 ypg pass (57%) with an 0-2 ratio and is
the #2 rusher with 216 (4.2). Turner leads with 229 (4.0). The top rec is Young with 26 (13.4). SDSt snapped
a 6 gm losing streak behind the arm of QB Lindley who set a frosh record with 433 pass yds (63%, 4 TD)
vs Idaho LW. SDSt had their best off output since ‘02 with 603 ttl yds on the night. Lindley is now avg 300
ypg (53%) with an 8-4 ratio. The top rec is Brown with 20 (15.
although 3 other WR’s have DD catches.While SDSt is high after its first win, TCU has all the edges (off #41-108, D #7-104, ST #25-108), is 9-3
the L/3Y as a DD fav and rolls here.
TENNESSEE 27 N Illinois 17 - 1st meeting. UT fell to 1-3 after LW’s loss to Aub, the worst start for the
Vols S/’94 and Fulmer is under major fire. LY after their blowout loss to UF, they pummelled Ark St 48-27
and then UGA the following wk 35-14. Later in the yr, after a blowout loss to AL with Fulmer’s job seemingly
on the line, UT crushed ULL 59-7 and then Ark 34-13. UT has only faced 2 current MAC schools
(Temple & Akron) with an avg win of 40-14 (3 gms). NI did upset #21 Alabama in Tuscaloosa in ‘03. UT
is 5-9 ATS as a DD HF (covered TY vs UAB) and has a huge trip to Georgia on deck. NIll is 14-8 as an
AD but is also in a MAC sandwich off a big shutout win over EM with Miami on deck. NI QB Nicholson
has avg 123 ypg (59%) with a 3-2 ratio and is now healthy after LY’s shoulder inj. UT QB Crompton has
struggled avg 165 ypg (52%) with a 2-4 ratio. UT is avg 166 ypg rush (4.
led by Foster (263, 5.6). Itstough to go against NI as they have covered 6 in a row.
KENT ST 27 Akron 24 - The schools are just 14 miles apart and play for the Wagon Wheel Trophy. QB
Edelman had career high’s in pass yds (305) on 17-21 (81%) 2 yrs ago vs UA in a dominating 37-15 win
at home. LY KSU was in full control but blew some scoring opp and after a 36 yd FR TD only led 17-7
and the Zips rallied for the win with Edelman hitting just 8-21 for 155 yds. UA almost had their 2nd win
TY over a BCS team but could not hold a 4Q lead falling 17-15 to Cincy. Both tms have lost to Ball St.
UA lost 41-24 (7 pt HD) while KSU ended a streak of 10 straight ATS losses, 41-20 (22 pt AD). KSU's
top RB Jarvis (207, 5.2) missed his 2nd game (CS). QB Edelman is avg 133 ypg (53%) with a 5-6 ratio
and is the top rusher with 274 (4.9). The Zips are led by QB Jacquemain, who is avg 243 ypg (60%) with
an 8-6 ratio. Their top rusher is RB Kennedy (268, 4.
. Akron has the off (#83-98) and def (#97-113)edges despite playing the tougher schedule (#58-95).
Utep 31 SOUTHERN MISS 30 - LY UTEP allowed SM a ssn high 568 yds in a 56-30 loss at home with
SM RB Fletcher rushing for a career high 211 yds. UTEP QB Vittatoe returned LW after missing most of
the NMSt game and was 18-32 (56%) for 263 yds and a 3-1 ratio in a 58-13 win over UCF. The Miners’
D forced 6 TO’s and had 2 def TD’s to stop a 9 game losing streak. SMiss is off a bye and lost their 1st
CUSA HG under Fedora the previous week. UTEP has a slight edge on off (#55-59), but SM has the
edge in our D rankings (#86-98) despite all’g more ypg (413-400) and facing the weaker schedule. This
is the Miners’ 1st trip to Hattiesburg and UTEP is 2-7 SU on the CUSA road, but 9-3 ATS as a conf AD
(6-2 under Price). Price and the Miners should continue their CUSA road ATS success.
Oklahoma 48 BAYLOR 24 - OU held BU to -48 yds rush in their L/gm in Waco, 2nd best all-time and usually
makes up a good % of the crowd here. Stoops avg win over BU is 42-12, but BU had 450 yds and covered (+38)
in a 58-21 loss in Norman LY. Baylor did almost upset the Sooners in ‘05 on the road (lost in OT). Stoops faced
Briles UH offense in ‘04 and they won 63-13 with a 583-282 yd edge. OU is just 5-11 ATS prior to Texas and
was upset by CU LY blowing a 4Q lead. OU is off a dominant performance vs TCU and they are now ranked
#1. QB Bradford (LW passed for a career best 411 yds) is avg 323 ypg (72%) with a 16-2 ratio. WR Johnson
LW also set a school rec with 206 rec yds. BU is off a bye & has a real talent in QB Griffin who is avg 189 ypg
(60%) with a 7-0 ratio (#1 rusher w/334 yds, 6.1). He has accounted for 63% of the Bears off & didn’t even
start Wk 1! Baylor is just 2-12 ATS in B12 HG’s and the visitor is 10-2 ATS. BU has covered 4 of the L/5Y vs
OU, but LY in conf play went 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS losing every gm by 20+.OU is 3-0 ATS TY, outgaining foes by
274 ypg & winning by an avg of 37 ppg. They have huge off (#1-45), def (#4-80) & ST (#48-84) edges and
should once again take care of BU (OU is only school that BU has never beaten, 0-17).
OKLAHOMA ST 45 Texas A&M 17 - A&M is 10-2 SU (4 in a row) vs OSU in B12 play with the avg score
28-20. Two botched PAT's proved costly for OSU in their last gm hosting A&M, losing by 1 in OT (-3 in
‘06). LY A&M had the largest comeback in school history winning 24-23 (-6’) despite trailing 17-0 at HT.
The Aggies are off a frustrating win vs Army as they had just 14 FD & 290 yds. QB McGee (98 ypg,
71%, 1-2 ratio) reinj’d his shoulder (CS) but Johnson has a start under his belt and avg 113 ypg (57%)
with a 7-2 ratio. OSU LW reached 50+ pts for the 3rd straight gm waxing Troy for 612 yds (Troy all’d Ohio
St just 309 yds) in front of a record 52,463 fans. QB Robinson is avg 212 ypg (71%) with a 7-3 ratio. His
favorite target is WR Bryant with 22 rec (20.3, 6 TD). A&M is 7-18 as an AD and OSU is 16-4-1 ATS as
a DD fav. The Cowboys are rolling at 4-0 (3-1 ATS), winning by an avg of 30 ppg & outgaining foes by
234 ypg. The Aggies are still adjusting to Sherman’s schemes being outscored & outgained (367-298)
on the season which doesn’t bode well heading into the B12.
Ohio St 20 WISCONSIN 16 - OSU hasn’t won B2B gms vs UW S/‘95 &’96. LY Wisky led 17-10 in the 3Q
before OSU rallied for 28 straight pts in a 38-17 win (UW w/out RB Hill). UW is 3-2 SU in Camp Randall
vs OSU and upset #3 Ohio St in their last trip here in ‘03. The Bucks are 11-3 as an AF but UW has only
been a HD 2x in 5 yrs and upset Mich both times and is 6-1 in that role with their lone loss by a half pt.
OSU has covered their L/6 as a SD B10 AF by an avg of 10 ppg. OSU is off a 34-21 win over MInny
which they led 34-6 before substituting heavily in the 4Q. Beanie Wells wasn’t 100% but ran for 106 yds
to compliment Pryor’s 97 rush yds. This will be Pryor’s 1st road start. OSU’s D allows 95 rush ypg (3.5).
Wisky converted 1 TD in 7 UW trips inside Mich’s 50 in the 1H in a 27-25 loss (led 19-0 at the half) in
which the game tying 2 pt conv was called back. UW was without top rec’v TE Graham (shoulder) &
Beckum (hamstring) only played late 4Q. After holding UM to 21 1H yds, Badgers allowed 247 yds & 27
pts to the Wolves’ sputtering spread and they haven’t seen athletes the caliber of Pryor and Wells.
TULSA 54 Rice 37 - These 2 schools have played every yr S/‘96. The visitor is 8-3 SU and the favorite
is 7-4-1 ATS. LY they comb for 1,292 ttl yds & 66 FD’s in Tulsa’s CUSA West clinching win. Rice QB
Clement set a conf record with 601 ttl yds of off incl 541 pass yds in a 48-43 loss, but Rice covered
(+13’) at home. TY Clement is completing 66% of his passes and has a solid 14-3 ratio. LW, in a 77-20
rout of NT, Clement and WR Dillard hooked up for 4 scores and set the NCAA record for TD passes by
a duo with 41. Rice has a bye on deck and is 11-4 ATS the week prior to a bye. Ex-Rice Coach Graham
did not make Owls players and fans happy when he signed a contract extension and then left the next
day for Tulsa. Graham engineered a 41-38 2OT upset win by Rice in the last meeting here, but he is
3-5 (3-0 TY) ATS as a DD fav. Tulsa has our #3 off and put up 641yds (PP proj 700) vs IAA C Ark in a
62-34 win, but only led 28-20 at the half. QB Johnson is completing 74% TY with an outstanding 19-4
ratio. These are 2 of the weaker D’s (TU #111, RU #112) in the NCAA, so expect a another shootout in
this battle of offensive stars.
USC 33 Oregon 20 - The Ducks come into this gm riding some solid momentum after dismantling the
Cougars in Pullman while the Trojans return home after losing to the Beavers for the 2nd consec time
visiting Corvallis (1st unranked team to beat a #1 S/’85) and continuing their DD conf fav woes as they
now move to a puzzling 3-11 ATS. After tearing through the first 2 gms, USC struggled against the “up
the middle†OSU ground gm that tallied 176 yds on the night. The Trojans may also be missing some
key links on D TW with some VHT’s going down late in the loss (CS). LY the Ducks took advantage of
an energized home crowd & QB Sanchez making his 1st career start to knock off USC 24-17. The win
stopped a 3 gm losing streak but they are 5-3 SU vs USC. UO is 9-3 ATS as an AD and has been lethal
on the ground again in ‘08 avg 309 ypg which could cause some USC headaches after LW. The visitor
is 8-3 ATS but the fav has covered 6 of 7. While USC may be down some emotionally, they are 16-8 ATS
as a conf HF (11-3 ATS after a SU loss) but Oregon's D can keep this one within reach.
NEW MEXICO 23 Wyoming 13 - NM is 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the series but the last time these 2 met in
Albuquerque, WY got its 1st win at the site S/‘91. LY we used a 3H on NM on the road and they dominated
20-3 as a 4 pt dog. The visitor is 5-0 ATS. WY upset SEC member Ole Miss on the road in ‘04 but is just
2-10 as an AD since. Two wks ago, Tulsa handed NM its worst loss in 74 gms, but the Lobos bounced
back LW beating NMSt 35-24 despite being outgained 430-352. QB Gruner, in his 1st start (Porterie
out yr), hit 7-16 for 55 yds with a 1-1 ratio. Baker led with 146 rush yds as #1 rusher, Ferguson (528
yds, 5.0), was battling an inj (CS). WY has scored just 5 off TD’s TY and avg a measly 11 ppg. The QB’s
are playing scared as the cch’s have adopted a “no tolerance†policy as far as TO’s go. LW WY played
4 QB’s, 3 of whom tossed int’s. On the yr WY is -11 in TO’s. The 4 QB’s have comb to throw for 107 ypg
(52%) with a 2-10 ratio. RB Moore has 508 rush yds (5.6) and the leading rec has just 13 rec (thru 5
gms!!). The Pokes are 0-7 the L/2Y off a SU loss. This is Gruner’s first start at home but it’s a battle of
two good D’s and below avg QB play.
FRESNO ST 34 Hawaii 13 - Hawaii has won 5 of the L/7. The HT is 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS. These two
have combined for 76 ppg in the L/5 & the L/2 gms in Fresno have been blowouts. FSU won 70-14 (-12)
in ‘04 before UH won 68-37 (-4) in ‘06. Incl LY’s bowl gm, UH is 12-16 SU & 10-18 ATS (0-5 ATS skid)
on the mainland. The Warriors are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS under new HC McMackin. UH’s “merry-go-roundâ€
QB situation still lingers but more importantly the Warriors need to start protecting the ball (#117 in the
NCAA with 17 TO’s lost). McMackin stated UH would run more in ‘08 but the Warriors are only avg 12
ypg more (83 ypg) than they did LY & leading rusher Pilares (109 yds) is only avg 27 ypg thru 4 gms.
FSU has the edge on off (#32-94) & ST (#29-112). FSU has blocked 41 kicks S/’02 which is #1 in the
NCAA. QB Brandstater is avg 227 ypg (63%) with an 8-2 ratio & his favorite target TE Pascoe leads
with 16 rec (7.5) & 2 TD. WR Ajirotutu is a big-play threat with 15 rec (19.6) & RB Mathews has 470 yds
(5.7) & 4 TD’s. FSU is only 4-8 ATS in WAC HG’s. The Bulldogs are still in search of an outright WAC
Championship. The Bulldogs were WAC tri-Champs in ‘92, ‘93 & ‘99 but are focused on bringing the
hardware home to Fresno TY.
VIRGINIA TECH 37 Western Kentucky 6 - VT does have a bye on deck but is off a pair of ACC games
and a trip to Lincoln so they won’t be full throttle. They won 35-30 at Neb scoring on 6 str poss and
scored over 24 pts for 1st time TY in front of the largest crowd in stadium history. They also had a ssn
high 377 yds ttl off but lost ROV Davon Morgan for the yr w(ACL). VT has won their L/27 non-conf HG’s
by 31 ppg and this is HC. QB Taylor is avg 74 ypg (60%) with an 0-2 ratio. WKU may be overwhelmed in
front of this crowd as LY they were dominated 49-3 at Florida in front of 90,086. This is WKU’s 5th road
trip in 6 gms. They are off a 41-3 loss to Kentucky gaining only 157 yds ttl off with 142 of those rushing
and were outFD’d 23-8 giving us a 3H Totals Play Winner. WKU QB Black, who missed the L/2 gms
(shldr), returned and is only avg 92 ypg (56%) with 1-0 but the Hilltoppers have played the #5 toughest
schedule. WKU has the NCAA’s weakest D (#120) while VT has one of strongest (#27).
ULM 31 Louisiana-Lft 28 - LY ULL played w/o star QB Desormeaux & lost 17-11 despite outgaining ULM by
125 yds. ULL is 4-9 vs ULM S/‘91 and this is the earliest they have played this rivalry S/’97. The visitor is 10-1
ATS. ULM is fresh off a bye while this is the 3rd AG in 4 wks for ULL, all vs teams who were in bowls LY. ULL
is 13-7 ATS as an AD and avg 464 ypg while ULM is just 3-8 as a HF and avg 300 ypg. ULM QB Lancaster
is avg 201 ypg (56%) with a 5-0 ratio. ULL is off 45-37 loss to Kansas St despite outgaining them 509-470
(335-198 rush edge). ULL QB Desormeaux got pounded and did come out for a short time in 3Q. He is avg
172 ypg (61%) with a 2-2 ratio and rushing for an avg of 109 ypg (nation’s leading rusher among QB’s). RB
Fenroy is off his 19th 100 yd gm and has 453 yds (6.5) with 377 of them coming in the L/2 gms.
FIU 24 NORTH TEXAS 20 - LY’s win vs NT snapped the NCAA’s longest losing streak of 23 gms. QB
McCall hit 11-20 for 228 yds and 3 TD’s in his first start. The 7OT gm in ‘06 between NT & FIU is tied
for the longest gm in NCAA history. NT won that gm 25-22 in FIU’s only game as an AF (-3). FIU is the
more veteran squad with 18 ret starters. NT is off a 77-20 loss to Rice (most pts for a CUSA tm) with 6
TO’s resulting in 5 Owl TD’s. They have yet to have a receiver or rusher hit the 100 yd mark in a gm TY.
QB Vizza had not thrown an int up until Rice and is avg 187 ypg (61%) with a 4-3 ratio. FIU is off their
first non-conf IA win in the history of the program beating Toledo 35-16 despite being outgained 302-
239. UT was held scoreless in 2H and gave up 4 TO’s with 3 leading to FIU TD’s. FIU QB’s have been
inconsistent so far with McCall avg 68 ypg (46%) with a 1-5 ratio and Younger avg 59 ypg (48%) with an
0-0 ratio. Both tms have played tough schedules (NT #6, FIU #5) and have struggled on off (NT #111,
FIU #119) with NT avg 317 ypg while FIU is avg 196.
Tuesday, October 7 -Troy at FLORIDA ATL - FAU snapped a 4 game losing streak to Troy LY with their 38-32
road win (+16) stealing the Sun Belt Title in Troy’s FHG. FAU, off a bye, has 18 ret starters and is 10-4 ATS in
conf play. FAU QB Smith is avg 219 ypg (46%) with a 4-5 ratio. This is Troy’s 3rd straight road gm (in 4 wks)
and they were outgained 612-416 LW vs Okla St. QB Hampton is avg 233 ypg (63%) with a 9-7 ratio.
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2008 5:11am -
0 likes
power sweep nfl
4*Tenn. 23-10
3*Arizona 31-20
2*Miami + 17-20
2*NYG 30-10
3* KC/Carolina Under 37
3*Skins U38
3* Bemgals/Boys Over 44
2*Pats/49's Under 42
2*Colts/Texans O46
4* Tennessee over BALTIMORE - TEN is 4-0 for the 1st time in franchise history after a 4H win as a
Key Selection LW. BAL beat the Titans 27-26 in the last meeting in ‘06 but failed to cover as a 7 pt AF.
This game pits the Titans #5 D (#1 sacks) vs the Ravens #1 D (#17 sacks). The Ravens are off LW’s
MNF game vs PIT & teams are 6-20 ATS after dealing with the Steelers physical style of play. TEN is
11-4-1 ATS on the road. The Ravens have been able to insulate Flacco (129 ypg 58% 0-2 5.4 ypa) with
a strong run game but that has been vs CIN #19 & CLE #10 D’s which is inflated. While Flacco has
only been sacked once prior to MNF he’s only thrown 48 pass att’s which was tied for 31st prior to LW.
Dating back to LY TEN is allowing only 79 rush ypg (3.9) on the road. While BAL is only allowing 70 ypg
rushing (3.5) TY, CIN didn’t put much effort into WK 1 & CLE dumped the run game after Anderson’s
2 int put them in the hole. TEN QB Collins has fulfilled his role as a game manager admirably TY with
171 ypg (56%) with a 2-1 ratio in his 3 starts being sacked just once. TEN’s #8 pass D is only allowing
203 ypg (57%) with a solid 1-8 ratio with just a 5.7 ypa (52.5 QBR). While there is no line due to MNF
TEN has the better QB, is healthier with a very impressive defense with more rest & we return to them
as a Key Selection. FORECAST: Tennessee 23 BALTIMORE 10
3* ARIZONA over Buffalo - The Bills travel for the 2nd straight week but have a bye on deck. ARZ is
finally home after 2 straight road games. ARZ is 10-3 as a non-div HF & 6-1 ATS vs the AFC. ARZ decided
to stay out on the East Coast LW & they were unable to focus on the goal at hand with police escorts to
practice & spending their free time seeing the sights. They were down 34-0 at the end of the 1H with 4
TO’s converted into 20 pts & outgained 203-92. The came out strong in the 2H as they outscored NYJ
35-22 & had 27-9 FD & 376-170 yd edges. ARZ is expected to be without WR Boldin after he took a
vicious hit at the end of the game. BUF started slow vs STL LW being down 14-6 at the end of the 1H &
was outgained 210-96. They then rallied & scored 25 unanswered points. BUF only had an 11 yd edge
in the 2H but had 3 drives start on their 41 or better & 100 of STL yds came on their L2 drives. ARZ has
the #5 & #9 units which is impressive considering 3 of their 1st 4 games have been on the road. BUF’s
#17 ranking is skewed due to the success of their special teams & their #7 defensive ranking is vs a
STL team in chaos, OAK with essentially rookie QB, a JAX team with no quality WR’s & a depleted OL
& very beaten up SEA team. BUF will be hearing how good they are & front runners for the division but
expect an embarrassed ARZ team to come ready to play. FORECAST: ARIZONA 31 Buffalo 20
OTHER SELECTIONS
2* MIAMI (+) over San Diego - MIA is off a stunning upset win of NE before their bye & HD’s that
scored 24 or more before their bye are 13-5 ATS when they return. SD is in a tough spot here as they
are off a 1 pt loss to DEN, a MNF game, a road game vs OAK & have a SNF game vs NE on deck.
SD is 2-5 ATS in EST games. MIA is 1-5 ATS as a HD. SD gets a good matchup with Rivers who has
passed for 256 ypg (65%) with a 10-4 ratio taking on MIA’s #26 pass defense which is worse than the
ranking shows. They have allowed 242 ypg (69%) with a 6-1 ratio & 8.7 ypa (114.9 QBR). The Chargers
also have a huge special teams edge (#5 vs #32). Pennington has been very efficient with the ball (225
ypg 64% with a 2-1 ratio) but its the run game with Brown & Williams who have combined for 311 yds
(4.4) that makes the MIA offense go. SD was down 15-0 to OAK LW & was outgained 199-85 at the
half & a slow start on a long road trip would be tough to overcome. MIA’s Wildcat offense caught NE
completely off guard & Sparano will probably have more wrinkles for this game. We’ll side with MIA
here as an Ugly Dog which is now 19-9 (68%). FORECAST: MIAMI 17 (+) San Diego 20
2* NY GIANTS over Seattle - Both teams are off their bye weeks & SEA expects to get WR’s Engram,
Robinson & Branch back for this game. The Giants initially suspended WR Burress for this game after
he violated team rules but he is appearing. SEA is 1-8 ATS after a bye under Holmgren & 4-13 ATS in
EST games. The Giants are 5-13 ATS after a bye. This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years & SEA won the
last one 42-30 as a 3.5 pt HF. SEA was up 28-0 at the half & while the Giants had a 337-333 yd edge
198 yds came in the 4Q with the game out of reach. The Giants have won the yardage battle in all 3
games & have outgained foes 400-252 on the year earning 13 sacks. SEA has only outgained the hapless
Rams & were outgained by an avg 352-302 vs BUF & SF. Hasselbeck has struggled playing with
#6 & #7 WR’s starting with just 184 ypg passing (49%) with a 2-3 ratio & he faces the Giants #3 pass
defense. Manning has continued to be solid with 255 ypg passing (61%) with a 4-1 ratio & he gets to
take on SEA’s #25 pass defense. While SEA should be better with their WR’s returning the Giants are
at home, healthier & deeper at this point. FORECAST: NY GIANTS 30 Seattle 10
Indianapolis 31 HOUSTON 21 - The Texans finally get to play a HG but it’s vs a Colts team that was
stunned on a last second FG vs JAX. Dungy noted during the bye that Manning really needed the time
to heal his knee & improve his timing while the DL needed to assimilate their #3 & #4 DT’s which they
picked up off TC waivers. IND is 3-0 ATS after a bye but just 1-6 as a div AF. HOU is 9-4 ATS as a division
HD. The home team has covered 4 straight & the teams split LY’s series. IND beat HOU 30-24 but failed
to cover as a 6.5 pt AF as HOU opened the game with an 84 yd KR for a TD. IND had a 30-17 lead in
the 4Q but Schaub led HOU on a 75 yd 14 play drive to steal the cover. IND avg’d a 410-277 yd edge vs
HOU in both meetings LY. IND also expects C Saturday, LT Ugoh & TE Clark to return for this game but
SS Sanders is out for another month. Both teams are pretty even statistically (IND #19 & #23 vs HOU
#20 & #25) but HOU’s offense has been limited due to the lack of a true #1 RB even as Slaton only has
142 yds rushing (3.6) minus his 50 yd run vs TEN. Schaub had a good game LW with 307 yds passing
(73%) with a 3-0 ratio but JAX won the coin toss in OT & hit the game winning FG. Manning gets a good
matchup vs a HOU defense whose #9 pass defense ranking isn’t as good as it looks as they are allowing
160 ypg rushing (4.
. HOU does have a sizeable special teams edge but the Colts have put up 40, 36 &29 pts after a bye the L3Y & the road team is the play in a higher scoring game.
CAROLINA 23 Kansas City 10 - This is only the 2nd time CAR has ever been a DD favorite & they are
4-1-1 ATS as a fav of 7 or more. KC goes from facing strong offensive team to a stout defensive team
& was a much needed bye on deck. CAR is in a flat spot here after facing 3 of the better defenses & a
beating a division rival as a 3H LPS at home. They now get one of the NFL bottom feeders & CAR has a
road game vs TB on deck. CAR’s win came at a heavy price as both OT’s Gross & Otah were KO’d of LW’s
game & their status is unknown. KC is 2-6-1 ATS on the road vs the NFC but CAR is 2-5-1 ATS at home
vs the AFC. KC snapped a 12 game losing streak but lost 1st RD DC LT Albert (knee). KC has only won
the yardage battle in 3 of their L13 games. The Chiefs were able to take advantage of DEN’s #30 defense
& RB Johnson rushed for 198 yds (7.1). Fielding a pair of rookie CB’s the Chiefs were able to hold a DEN
team that scored 41, 39 & 34 in their first 3 to just 19 pts. CAR outgained ATL 401-268 & forced them to
punt on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H and followed up with a pair of SOD. Delhomme had a standout day with
294 yds passing (69%) with a 2-0 ratio & 10.1 ypa. CAR is a poor HF but KC has struggled with power
rushing teams TY (OAK, ATL) & they are too young to take on a CAR team playing with confidence.
PHILADELPHIA 21 Washington 10 - The Eagles are off LW’s SNF game vs CHI & it’s not known if McNabb
played the entire game or if RB Westbrook & TE Smith played. The dog has covered 3 straight & PHI lost
to WAS 20-12 as a 6.5 pt HF LY on MNF. PHI is 2-5 ATS as a div HF. PHI has won the yardage battle in 5
of their L6 games thanks to a resurgent McNabb with a 377-264 yd edge going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS. While
McNabb has passed for 288 ypg (66%) with a 10-3 ratio the rush defense has been outstanding allowing
just 65 ypg (3.3). They have allowed 216 ypg passing (56%) with a 3-6 ratio & have earned 18 sacks.
WAS upset DAL LW with a good game by Portis (121 yds 5.
& another efficient game by Campbell whopassed for 231 yds (65%) with a 2-0 ratio. WAS forced DAL to punt on 4 of their 1st 5 drives & held DAL
to 44 yds rushing (4.0). While there is no line due the SNF game, Westbrook should return here & we’ll
side with the home team.
Chicago 24 DETROIT 17 - DET did some housecleaning during the bye & the new front office immediately
turned the teams attention to CHI. QB Kitna sprained his knee late vs SF & while he should play he won’t
be 100%. DET has covered 3 straight & won both games SU LY. The dog is 12-4-1 ATS in the series & DET
is 4-0 ATS after a bye. CHI is 1-4 ATS as a div AF. DET with extra rest also catches CHI off a SNF game
vs PHI. For as much DET wants to be a rushing team they have been taken out of their element by being
outscored 21-0 in the 1Q vs ATL, 21-3 in the 1H vs GB & 21-3 in the 1H vs DET. The Lions have been
outgained in 6 straight games & the defense has given up 400 or more yards in 3 of their L9 games. So far
TY DET has been outgained 430-289 & while the defense has assumed most of the blame for TY’s failings
the offense has only converted 9 of 34 3rd Dns. DET has struggled on both sides of the ball in terms of pass
rush allowing 12 sacks (26th) while only earning 3 (29th). CHI has played 4 straight playoff level teams &
could have been 3-0 prior to PHI. While DET will put a good effort here they have been very inconsistent
stopping the run (#32, 5.6 ypc) & we’ll side with the road team here.
GREEN BAY 24 Atlanta 10 - GB beat ATL 33-25 as 9 pt AD in the last meeting back in 2005. GB is 7-2-1
ATS at home & 8-3-1 ATS vs a non-div foe. The Falcons shift from facing a power rushing offense with a
stout defense to a high powered passing offense that is vulnerable vs the run. It’s not unusual to see a young
team with a young QB do better at home than on the road as ATL has outgained foes 426-305 at home
but been outgained 356-251 on the road. ATL has only rushed for 112 ypg (4.4) on the road vs 252 (6.5)
at home & the Falcons haven’t scored an offensive TD in either road game. GB is off a painful loss to TB &
QB Rodgers possibly has a separated shoulder. He threw 3 int LW which were converted to 17 pts. GB was
blasted LW being outFD 20-8 & outgained 327-181 & were held to just 66 yds in the 2H. After allowing 217
yds (6.2) rushing to DAL, GB gave up 178 yds (4.3) rushing to TB as the talent on at DT is a weak link. GB
is a hostile environment to play & look for the Packers to bounce back off an embarrassing loss.
DENVER 24 Tampa Bay 23 - Just 2 weeks after facing CHI, Brian Griese faces another former team in DEN.
TB is 1-9 ATS away vs the AFC but DEN is 2-9 ATS hosting an NFC foe. DEN was lucky to be down just 13-6
LW at the half as the Chiefs LW had a pair of FG’s on their 1st 2 drives which went down to the DEN 5 & 3.
Cutler couldn’t get into a rhythm & KC outrushed DEN 108 (6.4) to 30 (3.0) in the 1H. While DEN has shown
that it has a formidable offense TY (#1) the defense (#30) is a major issue especially in the passing game. They
haven’t been able to generate much of a pass rush (6 sacks) & have allowed 285 ypg passing (73%) with a 7-1
ratio with an 8.4 ypa (111.9 QBR). TB beat GB LW as a 3.5H LPS LW on the back of a superb 2H in which they
had an 11-1 FD & 209-66 yd edge. TB converted 4 TO’s into 24 points & after rushing for 178 yds (4.3) they
get to take on a DEN team that allowed 213 yds (6.5) rushing LW. While this game has a sea level based team
travelling into the altitude the cold isn’t a factor & we’ll side with the better defense getting points here.
New England 23 SAN FRANCISCO 16 - The Patriots have had 2 weeks to stew over an embarrassing loss
that snapped a 21 game reg season win streak. NE is 14-3 ATS on the road off a SU loss & 8-3 ATS on the
road after a bye. SF is 4-1 ATS hosting an NFC team & 4-1 ATS hosting an East Coast team. The Patriots
are used to playing with a big lead & forcing teams to pass thus avoiding the wear & tear on an older back 7.
While Cassel got a lot of heat for his play vs MIA passing for 131 yds (61%) with a 1-1 ratio & 4.2 ypa, he’s
simply doing what the coaching staff asks of him. Belichick now has 4 complete games & extra time to work
with. The secondary is still adjusting to its offseason overhaul allowing 210 ypg (71%) with a 3-2 ratio & a
8.1 ypa. After a big win vs DET, SF was overwhelmed by NO being outgained 467-312 with 97 yds coming
late in the 4Q. O’Sullivan had a tough day & only hit 257 yds (50%) with 1-2 ratio. This is not the same NE
team that everyone is used to but the coaching edge is big enough to side with the road team here.
DALLAS 38 Cincinnati 17 - This is one of the biggest mismatches of the year with DAL’s #2 & #11 units vs
CIN #31 & #19 units. After being listed as probable the morning of LW’s game the Bengals benched QB Palmer
due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. CIN started former Ram Ryan Fitzpatrick who hit for 156 yds (60%)
with a 1-3 ratio & just a 5.8 ypa. After posting B2B seasons of 1000+ yds receiving each Houshmanzadeh &
Johnson have combined for 382 yds (10.9) in 2008. CIN has been outrushed 164 (4.3) to 82 (3.5) on the year
& Fitzpatrick led the team in rushing LW (41 yds 10.3) vs the #22 rush defense. CIN has been held to 215
total yards of offense or less in 3 of 4 games TY. DAL has earned 344 yds in each of their games TY & will
be keen to restart a run game that was outrushed 164 (4.
to 44 (4.0) LW. They have converted a blistering57% of 3rd Dns while allowing just 36% 3rd Dns. LW’s loss brings DAL back to earth a bit but they are still
the top team in our power ratings. CIN is 0-4 for the 1st time in HC Lewis career. While there is no line due to
Palmer we’ll side with the home team in a higher scoring game that could get ugly very fast.
Pittsburgh at JACKSONVILLE - The Steelers go from 1 physical game vs BAL to another vs the Jags
who beat them twice in PIT LY. JAX won the 1st meeting 29-22 as a 3.5 pt AD and then ended the Steelers
playoff hopes with a 31-29 win as a 2.5 pt AF. PIT simply couldn’t execute its offense without RB Parker
who missed LW’s game vs BAL. The key play of the game was when Garrard scrambled 32 yds for a 1st
Dn on 4th & 2 to setup the game winning FG with :40 left. The Jaguars are off B2B close wins beating IND
on the final play & winning a brawl vs HOU. PIT has a bye on deck but will they risk bringing Parker back
& just how much gas do the Jags have left? This is the Sunday Night Marquee PPH Play. The PPH has
the winner up at 11:00 am ET on Sunday morning! Call 1-900-438-9467 for just $15 or pay just $9
on your NC Debit Card. Sunday Night Plays over the last 11 years are 103-66-3 61%!
Minnesota at NEW ORLEANS - This game features a matchup of strength vs strength with NO’s #3
offense led by Drew Brees vs MIN’s #6 defense highlighted by the DL. The Saints have been nickel &
dimed by injuries so far TY but MIN is off a tough physical game vs TEN & has to travel for a 2nd straight
week. The Vikings lost QB Frerotte with an injury on his throwing hand LW & Jackson is expected to get
the start here. Both teams feature a pair of electric RB’s in Bush & Peterson but they impact the game
differently & this game will come down to which defense can execute the coaches schemes.
SYSTEM PLAY
There are 3 main methods of handicapping, Fundamental, Situation & Technical. Fundamental handicapping
or the analysis of personnel matchups & power ratings is our main method of handicapping. This accounts for
roughly 50% of how we view a game. Situation handicapping (analysis of letdown, look ahead, systems, etc...)
takes up approximately 25% of our handicapping. Technical handicapping (analysis of angles) takes up the
rest. You should never base your final selection on 1 factor. To be a complete handicapper you must look at all 3
methods. Each week in Power Sweep we provide a system to add to your handicapping arsenal. This is done at
the request of our subscribers who want handicapping tips & methods. Many times we will agree with the side
that the system chooses. Sometimes the Fundamental & Technical aspects of a game will outweigh the system
& we have the other side written up in Power Sweep. We want to make it clear that the side we write up in
Power Sweep is the side we are on. If that is ever the case during a week, keep the system for future use, but
be aware that the side we write-up in the Power Sweep Selections page is the side we are on.
This is the 25th season of our System Section & it has been a consistent winner. Each week we
release a super system which pertains to that week's games. Here is an NFL Week 5 System:
Play on a road team that lost by 3 or less at home before its bye.
1993-2007: 17-4 81%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY: INDIANAPOLIS
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2008 5:14am -
0 likes
Cajun-Sports Gator Report Newsletter for Saturday October 4, 2008
Gator Report CFB 15-10 ATS +280
Gator Report NFL 12-1 ATS +1090
NCAA “Tech†Game of the Week:
12:00 PM EDT
2 STAR SELECTION
Rutgers +14 over WEST VIRGINIA
The Mountaineers will host the Scarlet Knights early on Saturday, as the two teams open Big East play. Both teams have been among the league’s best in recent seasons; however, neither program is off to a great start in 2008.
West Virginia, after entering the season in the Top 25, is an even 2-2 following a 27-3 victory over Marshall last weekend. Rutgers began the season with three straight losses, all as favorites, before finally entering the win column against 1-AA Morgan State, 38-0, last weekend.
Rutgers could have easily poured on the points last week; however, it was over at the half and the Knights called off the dogs. The offense did what it had to do, while the Rutgers' defense was simply dominant, yielding only eight first downs and a mere 109 yards of total offense to Morgan State. The team also forced four turnovers, in addition to picking up three sacks. THAT’S the Scarlet Knights defense we are more accustomed to seeing.
The Mountaineers have tried a variety of offensive approaches this season and it appears they will return to depending mainly on their ground attack to move the ball. Quarterback Patrick White injured his thumb in the game and will play here, but his throwing could especially be hampered, allowing the Rutgers defense to further focus on stopping the run.
Despite the Scarlet Knights horrendous 0-3 start, they haven't played a conference game yet, so they still have a lot to play for, as does the Mountaineers. The difference here is the coaching which we believe leans heavily in Rutgers and Greg Schiano’s direction. We often look to play ON a rebuilding team that started the season losing at least its first few games.
Off to such a poor start, the team will be butt of jokes in all local sports media and nobody will want to bet on the sorry bunch; however, this will generate line value on the team as they will be very determined to win, while upcoming opponents may take them lightly. Teams whose coaches have a long-term commitment from the athletic department will receive better efforts from the players, while coaches whose job is as good as gone after the season may find players more likely to quit on them.
We also like to play ON an underachieving team that has been "going through the motions" after some type of major stimulus.
Replacing the coach is the ultimate short-term wake-up call, but there can be any number. The “players-only team meeting†or lineup change are a couple of examples. It may even be something negative like a well-publicized player-player dispute or player-reporter confrontation. Ultimately, a positive stimulus or not, it can still give a falling team something to "circle the wagons" and rally around.
This is the case for Rutgers, as QB Mike Teel took a swing at a teammate in a loss at Navy. The frustration for this team had simply reached the boiling point and Teel lost his cool and took it out on the wrong team. Teel confessed his error, Schiano handled the situation, and we believe the incident has brought the team closer together and will turn out to be a rallying point, especially here as a road dog against a hated conference foe.
It’s probably for the best that this game is on the road, as Rutgers won’t have to worry about hearing their home fans boo them, as has happened in previous home losses this season. The road is often a sanctuary for teams. They feel less pressure and heat away from the home fans. These teams may be overvalued at home, but will be undervalued on the road, which is what we see here. They have played well here recently, as the road team in this series is 5-0 ATS when not favored by more than 14 points. We also note that the Knights are 7-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) as an underdog when playing with revenge for a SU & ATS loss since 2003
As further proof that their goose-egg victory over Morgan State will be a confidence boost for Rutgers, we find them qualifying for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a conference road underdog off a non-lined shutout SU win of less than 52 points vs. an opponent not off 2 SU losses.
Since at least 1980, these teams are 10-0-1 ATS, easily covering the spread by more than 15 ppg on average.
Meanwhile, we have a Mountaineers team that is an ugly 0-10 ATS (-15.1 ppg) at home off a home game and not an underdog of 20+ points.
Additionally, we are not sold on their new coach, Bill Stewart, in the least bit. He’s a nice guy – too nice – which is not conducive to having a tough team. He’s too determined to NOT be Rich Rodriguez, so we see these teams headed in opposite directions as the season progresses.
The Knights have a great chance of stealing one here, and should at least stay within a TD of the Mountaineers for a comfortable spread cover.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WEST VIRGINIA 34 RUTGERS 27
NCAA 70% Super Situations:
>NCAA Saturday: Play Under CFB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 70 in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 24-4 Under (85.7%) since 2003.
PLAY: Rice / Tulsa Under 80
Gator Report NCAA Games of the Week:
>SEC GOW (2-2 -.20 ): Kentucky +15½ over ALABAMA 3:30 PM EDT
Kentucky is:
5-0 ATS (+17.9 ppg) when not favored by 18+ points and facing an opponent off a road underdog SU win since 2000
4-0 ATS (+13.4 ppg) on the road with 5+ days rest off 2 SU wins
4-0 ATS (+12 ppg) as an unbeaten underdog with 5+ days rest since 1998
Undefeated road underdogs have been greatly under-valued by the wagering public when facing a team off a road dog victory. Kentucky qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that documents this. It states:
From Game 5 on, play ON an undefeated road underdog not off a spread loss of 12+ points vs. an opponent off a road underdog SU win.
Since at least 1980, these teams are 9-1-1 SU (+7.5 ppg) 11-0 ATS (+11.8 ppg)
Alabama is:
0-7-1 ATS (-10.5 ppg) with less than 12 days off a road underdog SU win vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 24+ points
0-7-1 ATS (-8.4 ppg) as a favorite with less than 12 days rest off any underdog SU win.
0-3 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since 2002 as a home favorite vs. an opponent off 2 home SU wins.
0-4 ATS as an undefeated conference home favorite of more than 3 points since 2002
Unbeaten favorites of 1-3 TDs have run into trouble against revenge-minded foes off a victory in the second half of the season. Alabama qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM documents this, stating:
From Game 6 on, play AGAINST an undefeated favorite of 6½-20½ points vs. an opponent off a SU win and seeking revenge for a SU loss.
With South Florida’s loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday, these teams are now 0-14 ATS just since 2005!
>ACC GOW (1-0 +100): Florida State +2 over Miami, Fl 3:30 PM EST
Miami is:
0-14 ATS (-18 ppg) as a favorite of less than 33 with less than 13 days rest off a SU loss.
0-11 SU (-12.9 ppg) & 0-11 ATS (-15.1 ppg) since 1996 in home games with a line between -9 and +6.
>“BIG EASY†GOW (4-1 +290): TCU -24½ over San Diego State 6:00PM EST
San Diego State is 0-17 SU (-22.2 ppg) & 0-16-1 ATS (-10.8 ppg) an underdog of 4-29 points with less than 8 days rest off a SU win.
TCU is:
9-0 SU (+32.1 ppg) & 9-0 ATS (+14.2 ppg) as a favorite of more than 8 points vs. opponents not off a road SU loss of 14+ points & ATS loss.
Huge favorites at home from their 5th game on, have blasted conference opponents after getting blown out themselves. TCU qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 5 on, play ON a conference home favorite of 24+ points off a SU loss of 22+ points.
Since 1993, these teams are 16-0 SU (+41.6 ppg) & 15-0-1 ATS (+13.1 ppg).
>Underdog GOW (3-1 +190): NEBRASKA +10½ over Missouri 9:00PM EST
Missouri is:
0-5 SU (-16.4 ppg) 0-5 ATS (-10.6 ppg) on the road with 13+ days rest and not an underdog of 32+ points
Missouri hasn't won in Lincoln, Nebraska, since 1978, going 0-15 SU.
Missouri qualifies for a mid-season NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
In Games 5-8, play AGAINST an undefeated conference road favorite of more than 7 points off an ATS loss of more than 7 points.
Since 1997, these teams are 4-17 SU (-9 ppg) & 0-21 ATS (-9.9 ppg)!
Nebraska is:
5-0 ATS (+11.9 ppg) as a conference home underdog of 3+ points since at least 1980.
8-0 ATS (+7.8 ppg) in conference home games vs. undefeated opponents.
14-0 SU (+25 ppg) & 14-0 ATS (+11.5 ppg) off its first SU loss of the season in which they lost by less than 18 points and now not favored by 32+ points
posted by phantom
Oct. 3 2008 10:32pm