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Sport / Type: NFL / FREE SELECTION (Week 4)

Game: San Francisco vs. New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST)

Prediction: OVER 48.5

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

Analysis:

The San Francisco 49ers make the trip to the Big Easy to face the hometown New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon at the Louisiana Superdome.

The odds-makers have listed the Saints as a 6-point home favorite and the total opened at 49.5 and has since been bet down to 48.5.

Last week the 49ers defeated the Lions 31 to 13 as a 5-point favorite but the score fell below the posted total of 47. In that game San Fran QB JT O’Sullivan threw for 189 yards and a pair of touchdowns. While Frank Gore rushed for 130 yards on 27 carries to help lead the 49ers to the win.

The Saints are coming in off two tough losses the last coming in Denver as a 5.5 point road underdog losing 34 to 32. We used this Saints team as our NFL 5* Game of the Week last week and they got the ATS win for us in that contest.

Saints QB Drew Brees had another huge day passing as he threw for 421 yards and a touchdown. Saints RB Reggie Bush had a big day as well with 73 yards rushing on 18 carries and a touchdown. He also caught 11 passes for 75 more yards and another touchdown.

Both teams have been solid on the offensive side of the ball this season but both have found it difficult to stop the other team’s offense. This plays right into our selection in this contest as we expect another high scoring offensive affair. This series has seen the “Over” cash in three of the last four meetings overall.

The 49ers have surprised a few people coming out of the gate with a 2-1 record on the young season and this also triggers a nice “Over” situation as we know the Saints are a perfect 8-0 Over their last 8 when playing a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

On the technical front we also have a super situation that is active in this contest. It states to Play Over on road teams off a home win by 10 or more points against an opponent off a road ATS win where the team lost SU as an underdog, 30-7 Over the last ten seasons. During the last five seasons we have seen this situation post a record of 13-1 Over.

The Saints have started the 2008 campaign with three straight over performances averaging better than 54 points per game. This “Over” run for the Saints actually dates back to last season where they are a combined 8-0 over since the 2007 campaign.

New Orleans is 11-3 Over against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, 18-6 Over in home games after a loss by 6 or less points since 1992 and 10-2 Over after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

San Francisco appears to have adapted well to their new offensive schemes brought in by new OC Mike Martz. They have scored 31 and 33 points in their last two games respectively. We also note that underdogs off a SU double-digit non-division win at home and a SU division road dog win have produced a perfect 6-0 Over record the last three years.

This game will be played indoors on Sunday which also triggers a nice technical situation that tells us to Play Over in domed games during Game Four or Five of the season. This situation has produced an “Over” record of 16-5-2 since the 2001 season. During the last four seasons this situation has been a money making 11-1-2 Over.

Even though the number opened a little high to our liking it has come back down to well within our Total Points Range for a 2* Selection on the Over.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* San Francisco / New Orleans OVER 48.5

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