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College Football Trend Report
SMU (1 - 3) at TULANE (1 - 2) - 9/25/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 1-1 against the spread versus SMU over the last 3 seasons
TULANE is 1-1 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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USC (2 - 0) at OREGON ST (1 - 2) - 9/25/2008, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
OREGON ST is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
OREGON ST is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 1-1 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CONNECTICUT (4 - 0) at LOUISVILLE (2 - 1) - 9/26/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 1-1 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 1-1 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NAVY (2 - 2) at WAKE FOREST (3 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 3:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WAKE FOREST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 93-63 ATS (+23.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 62-40 ATS (+18.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 49-21 ATS (+25.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 52-23 ATS (+26.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NAVY is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 49-22 ATS (+24.8 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 49-22 ATS (+24.8 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 1-0 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 1-0 straight up against NAVY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
W MICHIGAN (3 - 1) at TEMPLE (1 - 3) - 9/27/2008, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W MICHIGAN is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TEMPLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEMPLE is 1-1 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 2-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MARSHALL (3 - 1) at W VIRGINIA (1 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
MARSHALL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
MARSHALL is 19-38 ATS (-22.8 Units) in road games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 19-38 ATS (-22.8 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
W VIRGINIA is 1-1 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) at SYRACUSE (1 - 3) - 9/27/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SYRACUSE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 1-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MICHIGAN ST (3 - 1) at INDIANA (2 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 1-1 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 1-1 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NORTHWESTERN (4 - 0) at IOWA (3 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 12:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA is 1-1 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 1-1 straight up against NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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VIRGINIA (1 - 2) at DUKE (2 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 1-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N CAROLINA (2 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OLE MISS (2 - 2) at FLORIDA (3 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLE MISS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OLE MISS is 1-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 1-0 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MISSISSIPPI ST (1 - 3) at LSU (3 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LSU is 1-1 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 2-0 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N ILLINOIS (1 - 2) at E MICHIGAN (1 - 3) - 9/27/2008, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 1-1 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
E MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BUFFALO (2 - 2) at C MICHIGAN (2 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at AKRON (2 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSTON (1 - 3) at E CAROLINA (3 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
E CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
E CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PURDUE (2 - 1) at NOTRE DAME (2 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NOTRE DAME is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-1 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 1-1 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (4 - 0) at OHIO ST (3 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 102-75 ATS (+19.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VIRGINIA TECH (3 - 1) at NEBRASKA (3 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NEBRASKA is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STANFORD (2 - 2) at WASHINGTON (0 - 3) - 9/27/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-1 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-1 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO ST (2 - 1) at CALIFORNIA (2 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
CALIFORNIA is 1-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALABAMA (4 - 0) at GEORGIA (4 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 7:45 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 1-0 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 1-0 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at AUBURN (3 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WISCONSIN (3 - 0) at MICHIGAN (1 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARYLAND (3 - 1) at CLEMSON (3 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEMSON is 1-1 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 1-1 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FRESNO ST (2 - 1) at UCLA (1 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
UCLA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOWLING GREEN (1 - 2) at WYOMING (2 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OREGON (3 - 1) at WASHINGTON ST (1 - 3) - 9/27/2008, 6:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TCU (4 - 0) at OKLAHOMA (3 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UAB (1 - 3) at S CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UAB is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARMY (0 - 3) at TEXAS A&M (1 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARMY is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS A&M is 1-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KENT ST (1 - 3) at BALL ST (4 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENT ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 1-0 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 1-0 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S FLORIDA (4 - 0) at NC STATE (2 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO (3 - 0) at FLORIDA ST (2 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 1-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UCF (1 - 2) at UTEP (0 - 3) - 9/27/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTEP is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
UTEP is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTEP is 1-0 against the spread versus UCF over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 1-0 straight up against UTEP over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ILLINOIS (2 - 1) at PENN ST (4 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ILLINOIS is 2-0 against the spread versus PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 1-1 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW MEXICO (1 - 3) at NEW MEXICO ST (1 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IDAHO (1 - 3) at SAN DIEGO ST (0 - 3) - 9/27/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
IDAHO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
IDAHO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.
IDAHO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
IDAHO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEVADA (1 - 2) at UNLV (3 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
UNLV is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEVADA is 2-0 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN JOSE ST (2 - 2) at HAWAII (1 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 11:59 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 36-15 ATS (+19.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAWAII is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
HAWAII is 2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
W KENTUCKY (2 - 2) at KENTUCKY (3 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS ST (3 - 1) at MEMPHIS (1 - 3) - 9/27/2008, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 1-1 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROY (2 - 1) at OKLAHOMA ST (3 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 1-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 1-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLA INTERNATIONAL (0 - 3) at TOLEDO (1 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
TOLEDO is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TOLEDO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
TOLEDO is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
TOLEDO is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
TOLEDO is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA LAFAYETTE (1 - 2) at KANSAS ST (2 - 1) - 9/27/2008, 3:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH TEXAS (0 - 3) at RICE (2 - 2) - 9/27/2008, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTH TEXAS is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
RICE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS (2 - 1) at TEXAS (3 - 0) - 9/27/2008, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 3) at MIDDLE TENN ST (1 - 3) - 9/30/2008, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-1 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-1 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOUISIANA TECH (2 - 1) at BOISE ST (3 - 0) - 10/1/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Sept. 22 2008 2:26pm -
0 likes
Pro Football Trend Report
NY JETS (1 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (0 - 2) - 9/22/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DENVER (3 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (0 - 3) - 9/28/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLEVELAND (0 - 3) at CINCINNATI (0 - 3) - 9/28/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSTON (0 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) - 9/28/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 1) - 9/28/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2) - 9/28/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 51-74 ATS (-30.4 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 51-74 ATS (-30.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 51-77 ATS (-33.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 51-77 ATS (-33.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATLANTA (2 - 1) at CAROLINA (2 - 1) - 9/28/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 2-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (1 - 2) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 9/28/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GREEN BAY (2 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) - 9/28/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BUFFALO (3 - 0) at ST LOUIS (0 - 3) - 9/28/2008, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN DIEGO (0 - 2) at OAKLAND (1 - 2) - 9/28/2008, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at DALLAS (3 - 0) - 9/28/2008, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at CHICAGO (1 - 2) - 9/28/2008, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALTIMORE (2 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) - 9/29/2008, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Sept. 22 2008 2:40pm -
0 likes
Pointwise College Key Releases
1--CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo 45-20
1--Cincinnati over AKRON 41-17
2--Purdue (+) over NOTRE DAME 23-14
3--BALL STATE over Kent State 50-20
3--PENN STATE over Illinois 41-17
4--Northern Illinois over EASTERN MICH. 48-24
5--Colorado (+) over FLORIDA STATE 20-16
5--Oregon over WASHINGTON STATE 48-14
NFL Key Releases
2--San Diego over OAKLAND 31-17
3--Cleveland (+) over CINCINNATI 17-16
4--Buffalo over ST. LOUIS 34-13
5--CHICAGO (+) over Philadelphia 20-17
5--Carolina over ATLANTA 24-10
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:48pm -
0 likes
Cko
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and
PREFERENCES
11 WESTERN MICHIGAN over *Temple
Shoulder injury to Temple QB Adam DiMichele gives Western Michigan a massive QB edge in this game. HC Al
Golden said his QB (and charismatic leader of an Owl team that covered 3 of its first 4 this season) will be out
“a considerable amount of time,†with the injury. He was replaced by RS freshman Chester Stewart, who tossed
3 interceptions in relief against Penn State. The Broncos, who have never lost to Temple and outscored the Owls
56-10 in last 2 meetings, have veteran Tim Hiller at the controls. Hiller has thrown for 5457 yds. and 54 TDs in his
23-game career and has completed 72% of his passes this season. WMU RB Brandon West has run for 403
yards in the Broncos’ last 3 games. WMU’s rush defense has allowed just 3.6 ypc, and the Broncos, who have
produced All-MAC pass rushers in recent seasons, will put pressure on Stewart (Penn State had 7 sacks against
the Owls last week). Temple’s defense, which ranks 114th against the run, isn’t in good health, either, as four
starters and a backup (including 3 LBs) have missed time with injury.
Late Score Forecast:
WESTERN MICHIGAN 30 - *Temple 13
10 *N.C. STATE over South Florida
Scouts report last week’s upset of undefeated East Carolina has done wonders for the confidence of the
Wolfpack players, reflecting the cumulative effects of the solid coaching of Tom O’Brien. N.C. State had been
giving signs of improvement last year, with victories in 4 of its last 6 games. Now that quick RS frosh QB Russell
Wilson is providing an improved passing dimension and 2007 top rusher Jamelle Eugene (667 YR LY) has
returned to the offense, the athletic NCS defense should find itself both better rested and with more to fight for.
The South Florida offense, lacking marquee rushers and long-distance threats, is too often overly dependent on
QB Matt Grothe to bail it out. Bulls 0-2 vs. the spread on the road TY, and 2-6 last 8 as a traveler overall.
Late Score Forecast:
*N.C. STATE 23 - South Florida 21
10 ALABAMA over *Georgia
Alabama, with its sr. QB (John Parker Wilson) and its strength in “the pits,†is one of the few teams that figures
to be able to challenge loaded Georgia where it is vulnerable. The Crimson Tide returned four starters on their
O-line, led by future NFL LT Andre Smith (6-5, 330). And the deep Bama DL (including 6-5, 365-pound NT
Terrence Cody) figures to be a problem for the still-youthful Bulldog offensive line, which was re-shuffled when
LT Trinton Sturdivant was lost for the season in August. South Carolina’s veteran defense slowed the Bulldog
juggernaut to just 14 points two weeks ago, and the Crimson Tide should have some success too. Frosh RB
Mark Ingram and blue-chip WR Julio Jones have given Nick Saban more punch on offense in 2007. The Red
Elephants haven’t lost a game by more than 7 points in Saban’s tenure.
Late Score Forecast:
ALABAMA 24 - *Georgia 20
10 *MICHIGAN over Wisconsin
Big Ten scouts tell us new, crafty HC Rich Rodriquez believes Michigan has greatly benefited from the bye week,
as it has given his squad a chance to get healthier (especially on OL), as well as spending additional time working
on techniques and fundamentals. Look for Wolverines’ improving RS frosh QB Threet (16 of 23 vs. Notre Dame)
to be afforded more time to connect with WRs Matthews & emerging frosh Odoms, now that more confident,
hotshot frosh RB McGuffie (131 YR in 25 tries vs. Irish) demands more attention from Wisconsin front 7.
Meanwhile, not so sure Badgers new QB Evridge will easily dissect the Wolverines secondary, particularly if top
RB P.J. Hill frustrated by tenacious UM stop unit once again (only 25 carries, 78 YR in 2 games vs. UM). And with
Wolverines’ speedy LB corps keeping close tabs on Badgers top target TE Beckum, UM primed to avoid 1st home
loss in series since 1994. Wiscy, which was fortunate to escape in 13-10 win at Fresno (Bulldogs missed 3
FGs), not so lucky in the boisterous Big House.
Late Score Forecast:
*MICHIGAN 23 - Wisconsin 20
10 *TAMPA BAY over Green Bay
Well, maybe replacing Brett Favre isn’t going to be as easy as it first seemed for Aaron Rodgers, who faced some
real pressure for the first time as a starter last week against Dallas, and couldn’t do much damage until outcome
was decided. It isn’t helping Rodgers that Green Bay infantry at less than 100% these days with Ryan Grant
slightly compromised by a sore hamstring. Things won’t get any easier at loud and distracting Raymond James
Stadium, where d.c. Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2 schemes have frustrated many accomplished QBs (much less one
making only 4th career start). Moreover, must note the leadership rejuvenated vet QB Brian Griese (67 pass
attempts at Chicago!) now providing for Buc offense. Greater accumulation of edges rests with T.B., which
usually takes care of business as home chalk (7-2 last 9 in role).
Late Score Forecast:
*TAMPA BAY 30 - Green Bay 17
TOTALS: OVER (45½) in the Denver-Kansas City game—Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Denver offense (38 ppg) lighting things up with new spread
attack; Broncos have played three straight “oversâ€...UNDER (44½) in the Cleveland-Cincinnati game—Cleveland (9 ppg) hurting at receiver; Browns 8-0-
1 “under†last nine games.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTHWESTERN (+8) at Iowa—Hawkeye offense limited by inconsistent play at QB; Northwestern HC Pat
Fitzgerald (a former standout Wildcat LB) is building a hard-nosed defense (11 ppg TY) in Evanston...OHIO STATE (-18½) vs. Minnesota—Buckeyes
already had the defense; frosh QB Pryor (4 TDP in his first start) should improve weekly as he boosts the offense...OKLAHOMA (-18) vs. Tcu—Sooners,
who were stunned in Norman in their opener in 2005 vs. the Horned Frogs with Paul Thompson at QB, now have revenge in mind with the prolific Sam
Bradford running OU’s no-huddle offense...NEW MEXICO STATE (+3½) vs. New Mexico—With Lobos’ Donovan Porterie gone for the season, QB edge in
this bitter rivalry goes to N.M. State’s pass-happy Chase Holbrook (5 TDP last week at UTEP) in Aggies first home game TY...WASHINGTON (+12) at
Dallas—Cowboy offense impressive, but Eagles showed Dallas pass defense still needs some work; new Redskin HC Jim Zorn has helped young QB
Jason Campbell get the ball to playmakers Moss, Randle El and Cooley.
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:48pm -
0 likes
Statfox Platinum Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Games September 28-29
9/28/2008 (199) HOUSTON at (200) JACKSONVILLE
Hold your applause for Jacksonville everyone, the Jaguars are
not “back†as most experts are now claiming. They simply beat
a struggling Colts team last weekend, a team that HC Jack Del
Rio’s team has always gotten up for and played competitively
against. The Jags struggle against the Texans, having gone
just 3-9 ATS in the L12 games of this head-to-head series.
Meanwhile, Houston certainly can’t be happy about its season
thus far, but let’s not forget, they’ve played two of the toughest
defenses in the NFL in the first two games and they’ve faced an
unusual scheduling situation. This will be their third straight road
game and with things finally getting back to some semblance of
normalcy on the home front, I expect the same on the football
field. This game price is an overreaction to Jacksonville’s win. The
last time the Texans faced a similar overpricing in Jacksonville,
they won outright 13-10 in 2006.
Play: Houston +7.5
9/28/2008 (203) SAN FRANCISCO at
(204) NEW ORLEANS
Far for me to be talking about which
teams are good or not after my personal
Week 3 performance, but I just don’t
get all the buzz about the Saints. This
team is 1-2 and giving up over 27 PPG
and nearly 400 YPG. This week they’ll
be hosting a San Francisco team that
has proven itself very offensively worthy
in the early going, averaging a lofty 8.6
yards per pass attempt. Anyone who
reads the StatFox site often knows how
important this stat is to handicapping
NFL games. When you can get a team
with this much big play potential playing
as a 6-point underdog, the numbers say
you gotta play it. If that’s not enough,
consider the tremendous defensive
advantage that the 49ers will enjoy here.
They are allowing 4.6 yards per play, the
Saints give up 6.3. In actuality, San Francisco’s YPP numbers
(6.5 offense, 4.6 defense) are characteristic of an elite team. This
pointspread doesn’t reflect it.
Play: San Francisco +6
9/28/2008 (207) MINNESOTA at (208) TENNESSEE
There aren’t too many occasions where a 3-0 team with the best
point differential is playing at home against a 1-2 team and only
laying 3-1/2 points. What gives? Why is Tennessee not getting
the respect that the Giants, Dallas, and Denver are getting?
Perhaps because they are winning with dominant defense and
not big play offense. Still, the Titans are outscoring opponents
by 14.3 PPG thus far and holding opponents to just 240.3 YPG
and 4.2 YPP. Here they’ll be hosting an unfamiliar foe that has
endured offensive struggles to date. This will be a very tough
spot for the Vikings, who’ve struggled on the road versus AFC
foes, losing seven straight games while going 1-5-1 ATS. The
Titans meanwhile, have thrived versus the NFC, covering 66.7%
of the time under Jeff Fisher. Tennessee is a solid team, it just
isn’t being treated as such.
Play: Tennessee -3.5
9/28/2008(213) SAN DIEGO at (214) OAKLAND
If San Diego is truly an elite team, this is a game where it
should easily take care of business. The Raiders have little to
no home field advantage to speak of and are the NFL’s most
discombobulated team. They are just 2-11 in their last 13 home
games. If Lane Kiffin were to survive this week’s rumors, this is still
a franchise with a cloud hanging over it. Meanwhile, San Diego’s
Super Bowl aspirations may have taken
a hit in the early going but the Chargers
are still breathing and ready to make a
run. They have dominated Oakland as
well, going 21-11 ATS overall since ’92,
and 13-3 ATS on the road. Norv Turner’s
team has also thrived in divisional play,
recognizing its importance. San Diego
could and should be in a much better
spot than it is now. They’ll eventually get
back to that spot, and in the meantime,
there will be some nice lines to take
advantage of.
Play: San Diego -7
9/28/2008 (217) PHILADELPHIA
at (218) CHICAGO
The NFC East Division is loaded
with playoff caliber clubs and only a
painstaking 41-37 loss at Dallas in
Week 2 has Philadelphia looking up in
the standings. Right now, the Eagles
have to be considered one of the top
teams in the NFL. The numbers back
it up. Even with that 41-point effort by the Cowboys, HC Andy
Reid’s team is allowing just 242 YPG, holding its two other
opponents to 6 & 3 points respectively. On offense, led by the
resurgent Donovan McNabb, the Eagles are averaging 289
YPG thru the air and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Chicao, while
better than expected offensively in the early going, has still lost
a pair of heartbreakers that have demoralizing potential. The
Bears’ offensive balance has been the key to their early season
offensive success. However, with Philly stopping the run at a 46
YPG and 2.4 YPR pace, this game figures to fall on Kyle Orton
for the first time this season. Like you are probably think, I don’t
like those chances either. Look for Philly to win a 5th straight
game in Chicago.
Play: Philadelphia -3
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:50pm -
0 likes
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 45 - Buffalo 20 - (4:00) -- As we've written before, the
Chips are back in their element. Despite LW's last-minute loss to Purdue, note
26-16 FD & 440-344 yd edges, & have to see patented bounceback. Are +114
pts ATS in last 12 league tilts. Bull QB Willy: 10 TDs, but suddenly no run "O".
Cincinnati 41 - AKRON 17 - (3:30) -- Pike for Grutza was certainly no detriment
for Bearcats in rout of Miami-O. He was 20-of-24 for 241 yds & 3 TDs. And
check overland domination in 2-of-3 games to date. Visitor is 6-0 ATS in Zip
tilts (by 42 pts TY), & Akron allowed 35.5 ppg in 43 outings previous to Army.
Purdue 23 - NOTRE DAME 14 - (3:30 - NBC) -- Irish still in search of an "O",
ranking 96th, with 203-16 RY deficit at MichSt. Clausen just 6/6 this yr, but
check 14.8 ppg "D" last 5 outings. Boilers in off last minute win (46-yd Sheets
run; he has 271 RYs last 2 weeks). And Painter has had his way with NoDame.
BALL STATE 50 - Kent State 20 - (12:00) -- Flashes now on 0-10 ATS slide by
145½ pts. In off 667-yd defensive effort vs Lafayette, & have allowed 46 ppg in
their 2 roadsters. BSt smoking with 4-0 start, with Lewis on fire (166 RYs & 4
TDs) in 24-pt cover at Indiana. And try Davis' 10 TD passes so far. Romper!
PENN STATE 41 - Illinois 17 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Lions just keep on doing it. Now
have a 211-44 pt edge for the year, with an enviously balanced "O": 1,182 RYs,
1,062 PYs, behind Royster, Clark, Green, etc. Illini are solid DD dogs (Wise
Points), but are down a notch from LY's Rose Bowl team, despite presence of
Juice at QB. Needed 27-yd fumble return to take Lafayette LW. Lions, easily.
Northern Illinois 48 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - (1:00) -- Finally some "O" for
the Eagles after an 83-27 deficit in their first 2 lined games. But they lost their
last HG by 26 pts ATS, & have allowed 52, 39, 45, 42, 41, & 51 pts in their last
6 lined games. NIU nailed first win for Kill. Averaging 34 ppg & a solid run "D".
Colorado 20 - FLORIDA STATE 16 - (3:30 @ Jacksonville) -- 'Noles came from
57.5 ppg to just 3, in a week. Seven TOs vs Wake, including 5 INTs from QBs
Ponder & Richardson. Can't run, but just 48 RYpg "D", so CU Stewart (166
RYs vs WVa) will be tested. And Hawkins may open up overhead lanes. Tite.
Oregon 48 - WASHINGTON STATE 14 - (6:15) -- Duck QB situation worse by
the week, with Masoli (concussion) now hurting, after losing Roper. Still, a
227-38 RY edge in loss to Boise, along with 237 PYs. WSt lost its last 3 HGs
by 38, 18½, 49½ pts ATS, & has the nation's worst rushing "D". No other way.
THURSDAY
TULANE 37 - Smu 17 - (8:00 - CBSC) -- Wave as this solid a chalk certainly a
rarity, but have allowed only 40 FDs in 3 games, & are 5-1 ATS by 67½ of late,
with Anderson & Moore providing the "O". Pony "D": 44 ppg last 10 contests,
including 55, 56, & 43 pts in last 3 RGs. Mitchell: 7 INTs last 2 games. Greenies.
So California 45 - OREGON STATE 13 - (9:00 - ESPN) -- Sanchez latest USC
Heisman candidate: 4 TDs in rout of OhioSt. Troy has a 1,149-523 yd edge in
the early going, with an 87-10 pt advantage. Now +78½ pts ATS in last 5 tilts.
Beavs off the schneid with 38-pt rout of hapless Hawaii, & Moevao has thrown
for 923 yds, but still no overland game, & chalk is 17-7 ATS in OregSt contests.
FRIDAY
LOUISVILLE 31 - Connecticut 27 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Only one way to go when
UConn travels. Huskies are 0-4 ATS away of late by 59½ pts. Brown now at 716
yds & 10 TDs, but 'Ville woke up the ghosts with 38-pt, 578-yd effort vs KanSt,
led by Cantwell & Anderson (176 RYs, 3 TDs). And no TOs after 7 in previous 2.
SATURDAY
WAKE FOREST 44 - Navy 27 - (3:45) -- Wake in FlaSt/Clemson sandwich, &
still seeking an overland game, but opportunistic Deacs have 15 takeaways so
far, held 'Noles to 3 pts, & winning breeds winning. Mids beat Rutgers in final
2:06, but still allowing 44 ppg in 12 of their last 13 tilts. Skinner the difference.
Western Michigan 31 - TEMPLE 20 - (2:00) -- A taste of reality for Owls in PSt
massacre. Check a 546-138 yd deficit in that 45-3 drubbing. Were 87½ pt
ahead of the spot previous 13, so competitive. WM has allowed 34 ppg in lined
games, but Hiller has thrown for 9 TDs past 2 wks, & had 300-yd edge yr ago.
WEST VIRGINIA 52 - Marshall 14 - (3:30) -- Implausible 17 pts combined for
Mounties last 2 wks (just 72 & 43 PYs), despite 311 RYs at Colo. Herd stuck
it to us LW, by snapping their 9-game road slide, in upset of SoMiss, with RB
Marshall motoring for 252 yds last 2 wks. But call angry Mounties in bounceback.
Pittsburgh 27 - SYRACUSE 10 - (12:00) -- No 100 RY games for McCoy as yet,
with underachieving Panthers in off mere 13 FD effort hosting Iowa. The dog is
17-3 ATS in Pitt games, with 2 of the 3 misses by 4 & 1½ pts, but the Orange
have a 342-114 pt deficit as a HD since LY. Just a 23-22 FD edge vs N'Eastern.
Michigan State 33 - INDIANA 17 - (12:00) -- Check Hoosiers losing to a MAC
team for first time in last 21 meetings, with 42-20 home embarrassment vs Ball
St. QB Lewis is a force: 166 RYs, 159 PYs LW, but that "D" not to be trusted.
Spartan RB Ringer has 483 yds last 2 wks, & 9 TDs for the yr. Rolled last yr.
IOWA 31 - Northwestern 20 - (12:00) -- The dog is 13-4 ATS in 'Cat games, &
note allowing just 4 RYs in LW's win over OhioU. But Bacher threw 4 INTs in
that one (also 3 vs Iowa LY), & RB Sutton is hurt again. Hawk RB Greene has
10.0, 6.0, & 6.4 ypr last 3 games, & Iowa has a 105-8 pt edge at home so far.
Virginia 22 - DUKE 20 - (12:00) -- Both teams had last week off, & it could not
have come at a better time for the 'Cavs, who have a 97-17 pt deficit in lined
affairs to date, along with a 600-63 RY deficit. Fourth straight HG for the Imps,
who've covered their last 3 games by 22½ pts. But still can't trust Duke as fav.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 27 - North Carolina 20 - (12:00) -- Regrouping game for Tars,
who led VaTech 17-3 in final minute of the 3rd, only to lose 20-17. Had 121 yds
in penalties in that one, & now may have lost QB Yates. 'Canes were at 7.8
ppg, before 41 at TexA&M, behind QB Marve & RB Cooper. A bit of a payback.
FLORIDA 41 - Mississippi 13 - (12:30) -- Gators were outstatted in 30-6 win at
Tennessee, but no denying a rush "D", which has allowed only 60, 41, & 96 yds
thus far. And what a weapon KR James is, to complement the steady Tebow.
Reb QB Snead in off 4 INT effort in loss to Vandy, despite nearly doubling 'Dore
yardage. But no "O" TDs in that one for OleMiss, & Gators 7-1 ATS as chalks.
LSU 26 - Mississippi State 10 - (7:30) -- Don't like this one a bit. The Bengals
have covered 10-of-11 vs 'Dogs, & have allowed only 52, 44, & 70 RYs so far.
RB Scott rolled up 132 yds LW, but Lsu needed TD in final 1:03 to take Auburn.
Solid MSt "D" was skunked for 438 RYs in 38-7 loss to GaTech, & only 1 "O"
TD for 'Dogs in last 9 quarters. But Visitor is 17-4 ATS in Tiger games. 'Nother.
EAST CAROLINA 34 - Houston 27 - (3:30) -- Call this along lines of LY. The dog
is 5-0 ATS in Pirate games lately, by 77½ pts. Balanced "O", but in off OT loss
to NCSt. Coogs can't stop the run, but nearly climbed completely out of 17 &
21 pt holes last 2 wks. Eschewed tying FG LW. But Keenum: 16 TDs so far.
OHIO STATE 31 - Minnesota 17 - (12:00) -- Still no Wells for Bucks, but Pryor
(true frosh QB) lit a fire vs Troy with 4 TD passes. That one was just 14-10 in
the 4th. OSt now minus 69½ pts ATS last 6 outings. Minny at 4-0 with 13-2
TO edge. RB Eskridge (192 RYs, 5 TDs in 2 games) & Co may keep it close.
NEBRASKA 22 - Virginia Tech 19 - (8:00) -- Let's see. The last 4 lined games
involving the Hokies saw final scores of 24-21, 27-22, 20-17, & 20-17, so why
not another? Just 108th on "O", with QB Taylor in off 2 INT game. Neb: just
138 & 99 RYs first 2 tilts. Nowhere near Husker 48.3 ppg average last 4 HGs.
Stanford 27 - WASHINGTON 24 - ( 10:00) -- Rested Wash has heartbreaking
28-27 loss to BYU, bookended with 44-10 & 55-14 defeats. Can't run, & surely
can't stop anyone. Cards have a 128-54 pt deficit in their last 4 RGs, but held
SJSt to just 38 2nd half yds, & Gerhart is motoring (148 RYs LW). Mild upset.
CALIFORNIA 41 - Colorado State 14 - (6:00) -- Check the Bears' last 2 games:
49½ pt cover; 32-pt ATS loss. And note Cal coming from 391 RYs to just 38
(Best: from 200 to 25). Have to figure bounceback, as Rams in off nearly
blowing all of 21-pt lead, with endzone INT on final play. Are 5-21 ATS of late.
GEORGIA 20 - Alabama 19 - (7:45) -- What a "D"! Bulldogs have allowed just
22 RYs combined past 2 wks, against SoCaro & ArizSt. Moreno: another 149
yds, with QB Stafford & WR Green the perfect complements. Tide hammered
Arkies with the big play: 87, 25, 31, 62 yd plays, with 63 & 74 yd INT returns.
GA "D" obviously horse of a different color, but 'Bama stayed with 'em yr ago.
Tennessee 19 - AUBURN 16 - (3:30) -- Both of these combatants came up short
in SEC biggies LW, with the Tigers losing to LSU in the final 1:03, managing
just 70 RYs. Had allowed just 5 ppg entering that one, & rank 10th in the land
on "D". Vols outstatted Fla, in their 30-6 setback, being stopped at the 1 twice.
Were nicely balanced before that game, & bit of return to form. Call the upset.
MICHIGAN 27 - Wisconsin 22 - (3:30) -- That Badger overland game opened at
404 yds, but has managed just 158 & 154 since. But still perfect. Not that the
Wolverines are anything to write home about, with their 18.7 ppg "O". Six TOs
in loss to Irish. But Wisky has allowed 31, 38, 38, & 34 pts last 4 Big10 RGs.
CLEMSON 26 - Maryland 20 - (12:00) -- Well, Tiger RB Davis finally got going in
rout of SoCaroSt (3 TDs), but Harper managed 2 INTs in that 54-0 romp. Fact
is CU is 0-5 ATS lately, by 46 pts. The dog is 49½ pts ahead of the line in MD
games, with Terps nicely balanced all year (1 punt LW). They're worth a shot.
Fresno State 30 - UCLA 17 - (3:30 - ABC) -- Bruins at rock bottom now, with no
TDs the past 2 wks, along with a 90-10 pt deficit. Only 11 FDs vs 'Zona, with
just 81 PYs from Craft, & injuries taking their toll. FSt "D": from 10 ppg to 54
in LW's win at Toledo, stopping 2-pt OT try. But allowed only 304 yds vs Wisc.
Bowling Green 27 - WYOMING 17 - (4:00) -- A couple of teams plagued by the
TO. Eight in last 2 games for BG, which outplayed Boise 2 wks ago,& six by
the Cowboys in LW's 44-0 wipeout loss to BYU. WY ranks 115th in total "O",
& 113th in total "D", & is on unheard of 0-11-1 ATS run. Not about to buck it.
OKLAHOMA 34 - Tcu 17 - (7:00) -- In '05, Frogs pulled off upset (Wise Points),
& are loaded again. Check a 96-39 FD edge TY, allowing only 30.5 RYpg. Are
79½ pt ahead of the spot in their last 8 games, with QB Dalton leading a finely
balanced "D". But Okies are another matter, altogether. Bradford: 47-of-59 for
699 yds & 10 TDs in their 2 lined games to date. But can't jump in either way.
SOUTH CAROLINA 33 - Uab 14 - (7:00) -- Gamecocks very unimpressive in the
early going, despite a solid "D". Can't run, & another 2 INTs by Smelley LW,
leading Wofford by just 16-13 until the final 1:58. Blazers snapped 9-game
slide (AlabamaSt), with 223 PYs & 121 RYs from Webb. But 41 ppg "D" last 9.
TEXAS A&M 37 - Army 10 - (7:00) -- Ags in Miami/OklaSt sandwich, & hardly a
safe play here, as they've lost their first 2 HGs by 22 & 15 pts ATS, & can't run,
altho Johnson (for McGee: shoulder) has 6 TD passes last 2 games. First RG
for the Cadets, which have 85-20 pt deficit thus far, & 12 TOs in their 3 games.
South Florida 27 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17 - (7:30) -- No Grothe TDs,
either running or passing, in narrow win over FlaInt (just 2nd time in 30 games),
the Bull "D" is smothering: 6, 12, 9 FDs in 3-of-4 games. 'Pack rode 3 Wilson
TD passes to upset of ECaro, so note 30 pts vs 29th rated Pirate "D". Pass.
UTEP 24 - Central Florida 21 - (8:00) -- Miners have unveiled a decent run "D"
(122 yds vs Texas; 37 yds LW), but are hurting at RB, & now QB Vittatoe is out
(ankle). Allowing 39.3 ppg, but the Knights have less than 200 RYs combined
in their past 2 games, & have been a conference road flop. Mildest of plays hr.
New Mexico 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 37 - (8:00) -- Lobos shellshocked off 56
pt, 606 yd defensive effort vs Tulsa, & now QB Porterie is hurting. Shootout LY,
with Holbrook's 437 PYs & 4 TDs, similar to his 329 PYs & 5 TDs in snapping
6-game losing skein LW. Lobos lost last 2 RGs by 37-0, 28-10, & 56-14 counts.
SAN DIEGO STATE 31 - Idaho 21 - (8:00) -- Worst of the worst here. SDiegoSt
stands at 0-3, with a 293-6 RY deficit in its last game, while managing only 104
RYs for the year. Allowing 41 ppg in last 5 lined games. Vandals 1-11 ATS, &
in off 356-84 RY deficit vs previously 0-3 UtahSt. Anyone remotely interested?
UNLV 33 - Nevada 27 - (10:00) -- Rebels in off a pair of 3-pt OT wins. Still no "D"
(32.6 ppg last 25 contests), but showing decent balance, behind RB Summers
& QB Clayton. Reno also defensive midgets, allowing 41.6 ppg in its last 10
outings, but note amassing 488 yds vs TexTech 2 wks back. Revenge takes it.
San Jose State 30 - HAWAII 20 - (12:05) -- Hate going against home team in
SJSt contests (a 293-92 pt deficit away since last yr). Held to minus 24 yds in
4th quarter at Stanford, but note QB Reed hitting his first 12 & first 16 passes
last 2 wks. 'Bows have 142-27 pt deficit in their last 3 lined games. Spartans.
TEXAS 49 - Arkansas 14 - (2:00) -- This one was moved back a couple of wks,
due to Hurricane Ike, but it makes little difference. Another 4 TDs for McCoy in
LW's drubbing of Rice, so he has set a school-record with 62, & is 63-of-81 for
the season. 'Horns have scored 59, 52, 52, 42, & 52 pts in their last 5 wins, &
that Arky "D" is ripe for the picking (39 ppg last 9). QB Dick: 3 INTs LW. Rout!
WEDNESDAY
BOISE STATE 45 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00) -- Only way to go, as the Broncos
are a spectacular 19-3 ATS as conference HFs of <28 pts. Check QB Moore with
3 TDs & 386 yds in his first start (upset of powerful Oregon). That 227-38 RY
deficit may be cause for concern, but Tech won't to much denting of the Boise
"D". As a matter of fact, the Bulldogs have a 136-20 pt deficit in their last 3 RGs.
ADDED GAMES
KENTUCKY 31 - Western Kentucky 13
Arkansas State 23 - MEMPHIS 16
OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Troy 20
TOLEDO 37 - Fla International 24
KANSAS STATE 28 - La-Lafayette 17
RICE 28 - North Texas 27
Florida Atlanta 21 - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 20
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:51pm -
0 likes
Pointwise
NFL Key Releases
2--San Diego over OAKLAND 31-17
3--Cleveland (+) over CINCINNATI 17-16
4--Buffalo over ST. LOUIS 34-13
5--CHICAGO (+) over Philadelphia 20-17
5--Carolina over ATLANTA 24-10
San Diego 31 - OAKLAND 17 - (4:05) -- It continues. Thus far, the visitor in
games involving the Raiders is a perfect 3-0, both SU & ATS, covering by a
combined total of 51 pts. Oakland actually led the Bills, 23-14, with 4 minutes
remaining, before that collapse. We say "actually", because the Raiders had a
25-10 FD deficit, while coming from 300 RYs at KC to just 98 at Buffalo. The
Raiders catch the Chargers off their Monday Nighter with the Jets, but that
should matter little, a Oakland is 6-15 ATS off a loss of <3 pts, is 2-15 ATS as
a division host, is 1-9 ATS vs the Chargers, & a perfect 0-6 ATS as series host.
Cleveland 17 - CINCINNATI 16 - (1:00) -- A couple of very disappointing teams
meet here. The Browns have said good-bye to LY's super "O", scoring just 8,
14, 20, 10, 6, & 10 pts in their last 6 outings (11.3 ppg). No rushing "O", & in
off just 11 FDs in loss to the Ravens. Cincy took the Giants into OT, but have
a 523-255 RY deficit for the season, altho Palmer was back in form a bit, with
286 PYs, after a combined 223 in his first 2 starts. The Bengals have reached
20 pts in just 2 of their last 8 games, with the dog covering 10-2 in their last
dozen outings. Meshes nicely with Browns' spectacular 16-2 ATS log after
allowing 27+ pts. And Cincy is 1-10 ATS at home vs a foe off a DD SU loss.
Buffalo 34 - ST LOUIS 13 - (4:05) -- Until things change, there is only one way to
go when the Rams take the field. They are now not only on a 3-16 SU slide, but
are 3-15-1 ATS since last year, accumulating a 116-29 pt deficit just this year,
as well as allowing 39.3 ppg in their last 6 outings. They have yet to reach 200
PYs, have a 77-35 FD deficit, as well as a total yard 1,374-607 short end. The
Bills are 3-0 for the first time since '92, & enter off 25-10 FD & 34:27-25:33
time edges, but a narrow 24-23 win. Lynch & Edwards have this "O" purring.
Buff 17-9 ATS lately, & 26-8 ATS off a win of <3 pts. Extension of Ram futility.
CHICAGO 20 - Philadelphia 17 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Check it out. Nine sacks for
the Eagles in their win over the Steelers. Philly had been held below 18 pts on
10 occasions LY, but opened with 38 & 37 pt outbursts. However, Westbrook
is hurting (ankle: just 5 carries vs the Packers), & McNabb was shaken up as
well. The Bears must regroup off blowing a 10-pt lead in the final 3:15 to the
Bucs, losing despite a 158-47 RY edge. Forte is now at 304 RYs. The Bears
are +68½ pts ATS in their last 6 games, & the dog is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in
Chicago tilts. And the Bears are 13-0 ATS HDs off 2 losses vs a foe off a win.
CAROLINA 24 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- We know that this one bucks prevailing
wisdom whenever the Panthers take the field, namely sticking with the dog, as
the pup is now 54-29 ATS in Carolina games lately. As if that weren't enough,
the visitor is on an 8-0 spread run in Panther division games. But the time is
now for Carolina to come storming back, following their dismal play at Minny, in
which Delhomme was sacked 5 times, with key fumbles & 12 penalties putting
the nails in that particular coffin. The Falcs have been splendid at home with
Ryan 21-of-31, but he was just 13-of-31 with 2 picks in his lone RG. Ditto RB
Turner: 324 RYs at home, but just 42 away. Falcons are 4-11 ATS off scoring
28+ pts, & 1-7 ATS Sept dogs off a win of more than 7 pts. Carolina the play.
Denver 30 - KANSAS CITY 27 - (1:00) -- Broncos 3-0 for first time since '03, but
that "D" sure is vulnerable, a they've allowed 28 ppg, the most for any AFC
team, & stingier than only the hapless Lions & Rams. Cutler a splendid 8/2 for
the year, with Marshall snagging 24 passes the past 2 weeks. Note that this is
Denver's 2nd division RG, & that they won their first such setup, 41-14. The
Chiefs have dropped 12 straight on the field, with Thigpen an anemic 27-of-73
thus far, so hardly the answer. KC: just 12.2 ppg in its last 11 games. Sure,
Johnson motored for 121 yds last week, but still a 38-14 loss. The host is 8-2
ATS in Bronco games, but the visitor is 10-3 ATS in Chief contests. Denver is
17-9 off allowing 30+ pts. Chiefs are 11-0 ATS in division play, off allowing 34+
pts, & 36-13 ATS as HDs. And backing Denver as chalk not profitable of late.
JACKSONVILLE 22 - Houston 19 - (1:00) -- Jags avoided 0-3 start on 51-yd
Scobee FG in final 0:04 vs the Colts. Not only that, but their overland game
came to life with Jones-Drew & Taylor both over 100 RYs. Throw in a 16-of-22
showing for Garrard, along with a 41:35-18:25 time edge, & shades of '07
beckon. Texans still searching for missing ingredient, after managing only 12
pts after getting inside the Titan 14 six times. Schaub: just 1 TD pass, with 5
INTs so far, & check a 69-29 scoring deficit. But also check Slaton with 116
RYs (6.4 ypr) vs Tennessee. Houston has a 277-148 pt deficit in its last 8
RGs, but is 10-2 ATS in division play off a pair of losses. We'll take the points.
Arizona 20 - NEW YORK JETS 16 - (1:00) -- Well it had to happen. No TOs for
the Cards in their first 2 games of the season: 2 wins & covers. But 2 miscues
at Washington, as they tried to go 3-0 for the 1st time since '74, with a 24-17
loss the result. And that one also snapped their 10-game streak of scoring at
least 20 pts, but 'Zona is still scoring at a 30.7 ppg clip over its last 11 contests.
And Warner is going along decently, with 6 TDs & only 1 pick for the season.
The Jets are in off their Monday Nighter with the Chargers, & are just 8-23 ATS
as Sept HFs. The Cardinals, meanwhile are 16-6 ATS off a SU loss of <8 pts.
NEW ORLEANS 30 - San Francisco 13 - (1:00) -- Wow! After failing to reach
18 pts on 13 occasions since LY, the Niners explode for 33 & 31 pts in back-toback
weeks. Check their 35:54-24:06 time edge in their win over the Lions,
with Gore cranking out 130 RYs, & O'Sullivan tossing a pair of TDs (no INTs).
First of 3 HGs for the Saints, who haven't normally done all that well as hosts
(12-24 ATS run, & 6-15 ATS as a HF off a SU loss), but who've succeeded
nicely vs the Niners: 9-2 ATS of late, including LY's 31-10 win in 'Frisco. The
Saints nearly came all the way back from an 18-pt deficit at Denver, with Brees
& Bush leading the way to 27 FDs & >500 yds. We'll call for it to continue here.
TENNESSEE 17 - Minnesota 16 - (1:00) -- No questioning the fine play of the
Titans, as they stand at 3-0, both SU & ATS, covering by 10, 18, & 14½ pts.
Are 3-0 for just the 3rd time, & have held their last 7 opponents under 18 pts.
And check Collins' 28-of-47 the past couple of weeks. But the Vikes are rarely
out of a game, with their 2 losses this year coming by just 3 &1½ pts. Not only
that, but Frerotte (for Jackson) has breathed new life into this team, with RB
Peterson now at 340 yds. And check allowing only 25 & 47 RYs past 2 wks.
This could easily go down to the final gun, with pts at a premium. Mild dog call.
TAMPA BAY 23 - Green Bay 17 - (1:00) -- Battle of old NFC Central powers
meeting here. Buccaneer QB Griese set a franchise record by throwing no
less than 67 passes, in Tampa's OT upset of the Bears, connecting on 38 of
them for 407 yds, altho 3 wound up in Chicago hands. Tampa trailed 24-14
with just 3:15 remaining in that one, by the way. The Pack couldn't get it done
at home vs the Cowboys, but are still a formidable play, covering 16-6-1 lately,
& 20-5 SU since the windup of the '06 campaign. Bucs are 32-17 ATS as non
division hosts, while the Pack is 0-8 ATS as a RD off a SU loss to NFL East foe.
DALLAS 30 - Washington 17 - (4:15) -- Home team is the way to go in 'Skin
games thus far, as Washington has compiled 53 pts, 46 FDs, & 778 yds the
past 2 weeks (both played at Fedex). But in their only RG, they were held to
just 11 FDs in that opening day loss to the Giants. Campbell is in the groove,
with a nice 69.7% completion rate the past 2 wks (46-of-66), & has thrown for
4 TDs, without an INT. But taking to the road vs this dedicated Cowboy outfit is
a bit too much. Check 488 & 453 yds in 2 of their 3 outings, with Romo at 5
TDs already. 'Boys are only 10-21 ATS as DD chalks lately, but mild chalk call.
MONDAY
PITTSBURGH 31 - Baltimore 13 - (8:35) -- First RG for the Ravens, who have
opened at 2-0, thanks to a rebirth of its once feared "D". As a matter of fact, they
allowed 29.3 ppg in their final ten '07 games. But stat edges in '08: 42-19 in FDs;
631-323 in yds. No early line here, as Ben's throwing hand was injured vs the
Eagles, altho it doesn't appear serious. And check Parker coming from 243 RYs
the first 2 wks, to just 20 yds on 13 carries vs Philly. A year ago, Pitt also hosted
a Monday Nighter vs the Ravens: 38-7 romp (22-pt cover). Ravens are just 2-7
ATS as Monday RDs, while Steelers are 17-6 ATS as Monday HFs. Settles it.
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:52pm -
0 likes
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET --NCAA (8-6-1)
9/26/2008 (105) CONNECTICUT at (106) LOUISVILLE
Well, it seems that Louisville in as bad of shape as oddsmakers
would have led you to believe prior to the Kansas State game. With
QB Hunter Cantwell getting the passing game going in the last two
outings, the Cardinals are now one of the more balanced teams in
the Big East, both offensively and defensively. The same can’t be
said for Connecticut, who relies extensively on the running game.
The Huskies’ inability to throw the ball on Baylor last Friday night
was eye opening. Though they still won that game, the problem for
them in this Friday night clash is that they’re going to have problems
running the ball on Louisville. HC Steve Kragthorpe’s team has shut
down each of their first three opponents’ ground attacks. With the
running game, UConn will have trouble staying in this one. They are
4-0 having played NOBODY. This game
will be a wake up call. Take the hosts.
Play: Louisville -3
9/27/2008 (125) MISSISSIPPI ST at(126) LSU
Conference games with lines in the 20’s
should catch your eye, especially if both
teams are returning bowl teams. LSU
comes off its huge win at Auburn last
weekend and has this game to get ready
for the real showdown of 2008, at Florida
on October 11th. That alone makes this a
tough spot for the Tigers, not necessarily
dangerous in terms of winning the game,
but a difficult game in which to beat a
large pointspread. Mississippi State,
of course, relies on its defense, as the
offense is probably the worst in the SEC.
However, this is the same team that
held Auburn to 3-points two weeks ago.
In fact, had this game been played last
weekend, before the Bulldogs’ blowout
loss at Georgia Tech, the line would have
been at least 3-4 points more favorable.
As it is, it’s in overreaction. LSU has struggled at home vs. SEC
foes, going 22-41 ATS. MSU is 6-0 ATS on the road off of a spread
loss. Look for a 30-13 type of game here with the dogs getting done
on the number.
Play: Mississippi St +24.5
9/27/2008 (135) PURDUE at (136) NOTRE DAME
Saturday’s game at Michigan State was proof enough for me that
this Notre Dame team is not ready to turn the corner just yet. The
Irish are lacking offensively, producing just 287 YPG in their first
three outings. They are also struggling with turnovers week-in and
week-out, having given up the ball nine times thus far. Purdue
meanwhile, is all about offense, and road underdogs with prolific
offenses make for good plays typically. The Boilermakers’ defensive
numbers are also negatively influenced by the fact that they’ve
played Oregon and Central Michigan, a pair of clubs that put up
big numbers. Saturday’s game figures to improve Purdue’s defensive
outlook. In terms of trends: NOTRE DAME is 11-25 ATS (-16.5
Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning
record since 1992. The average score was NOTRE DAME 25.7,
OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 1*). This is a case where the wrong
team is favored. Take advantage.
Play: Purdue +2.5
9/27/2008 (145) ALABAMA at (146) GEORGIA
Alabama has put up some heady numbers in the early going as
part of their 4-0 start. In not-so-typical Tide-fashion, they are
averaging a healthy 5.9 yards per play. However, something about
that performance at Tulane has me believing this is the same
inconsistent ‘Bama offense. In that
game, they put up just 172 yards in all.
Against Georgia, it certainly won’t be
easy to move the ball: GEORGIA is 6-0
ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive
teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play over
the last 2 seasons. The average score
was GEORGIA 34.2, OPPONENT 17.2
- (Rating = 1*). Additionally, the Bulldogs
have typically brought their best game for
the biggest games: Richt is 22-11 ATS
(+9.9 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring
opponents by 10+ PPG on the season
as the coach of GEORGIA. The average
score was GEORGIA 28.1, OPPONENT
21.0 - (Rating = 1*). In this contest, you
have one of the elite teams in the country
taking on one that is still coming into its
own. The best part is that the elite team
is laying less than a TD at home.
Play: Georgia -6
9/27/2008 (153) FRESNO ST at (154)UCLA
UCLA and Fresno State have a naturally
developed regional rivalry and have met four times in the last 15
seasons. In those four contests, UCLA was the favorite each time,
by an average of 12.5 PPG. Fresno State won outright in one of the
games, a bowl game following the 2003 season. This time around, a
Bulldogs’ team that is 2-1 with wins over a suspect Rutgers club and
Toledo is the somewhat heavy road favorite. In the game against
the Rockets, Fresno couldn’t get a stop, winning 55-54 in overtime.
Let me ask you this: Is this the type of team you want to again lay
6-1/2 points with on the road playing “up†in conference stature?
This is still WAC vs. Pac 10, and the WAC is rarely favored in such
matchups. UCLA is still one of the better home underdogs in college
football, going 18-5 ATS in their L23 opportunities. Having beaten
Tennessee outright in the season opener, I imagine the Bruins will
be extra motivated by being an underdog here. This game means a
lot on the West Coast, don’t expect the Bruins to roll over.
Play: UCLA +6.5
TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. WAKE FOREST (-15.5) over NAVY 20
2. WISCONSIN (-4) over MICHIGAN 16
3. ALABAMA (+7) over GEORGIA 16
4. MARSHALL (+17) over W VIRGINIA 14
5. BALL ST (-18) over KENT ST 14
6. SAN JOSE ST (+3) over HAWAII 13
Top College Football Systems, Trends and Head-to-Head Data
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (161) UAB vs. (162) S CAROLINA
Play On - A home team (S CAROLINA) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive
games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. (38-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.9%, +28.1 units. Rating=4*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (16-2). L10 Seasons: (62-59). Since 1992: (94-84).
Friday, 09/26/2008 (105) CONNECTICUT vs. (106) LOUISVILLE
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - off an upset win as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through
9. (25-4 since 1992.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating=3*).
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (4-1). L5 Seasons: (8-1). Since 1992: (18-3).
MULTIPLE GAMES
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (IOWA, IDAHO) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a
winning record on the season playing another winning team. (29-7 since 1992.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (9-4). L5 Seasons: (14-4). L10 Seasons: (19-6).
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (125) MISSISSIPPI ST. vs. (126) LSU
LSU is 15-1 SU & 14-2 ATS vs. MISSISSIPPI ST since 1992.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (127) N ILLINOIS vs. (128) E MICHIGAN
The ROAD TEAM is 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in N ILLINOIS-E MICHIGAN series since ‘00.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (117) NORTHWESTERN vs. (118) IOWA
The UNDERDOG is 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in NORTHWESTERN-IOWA series since ‘95.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (135) PURDUE vs. (136) NOTRE DAME
The UNDERDOG is 4-12 SU but 11-4 ATS in PURDUE-NOTRE DAME series since ‘92.
Saturday, 09/27/2008 (179) NEVADA vs. (180) UNLV
The FAVORITE is 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in NEVADA-UNLV series since ‘94.
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:53pm -
0 likes
THE GOLD SHEET - NCAA (9-7)
KEY RELEASES- COLLEGE ANALYSIS
LOUISVILLE by 14 over Connecticut (Friday, September 26)
PURDUE by 8 over Notre Dame
WASHINGTON by 14 over Stanford
PENN STATE by 25 over Illinois
***LOUISVILLE 31 - Connecticut 17—UConn brings nation’s leading
rusher in jr. D. Brown (179 ypg & 10 TDs), as well as sound, veteran defense.
However, Louisville’s own stop unit much improved, allowing only 4 meaningful
TDs in first 3 games. Emergence of RS frosh RB V. Anderson (176 YR & 3 TDs
last week) opening airways for rifle-armed Card sr. QB Cantwell, who’s a much
more highly-regarded pro prospect than Husky counterpart Lorenzen. Cards
avenge LY’s upset loss. TV—ESPN2
(07-CONN. 21-Lvl. 17...L.20-16 C.39/175 L.31/93 L.29/43/3/228 C.9/18/0/130 C.2 L.0)
(07-CONN. +3 21-17 06-LVL. -28' 48-17 05-Lvl. -15 30-20...SR: Louisville 3-1)
***Purdue 28 - NOTRE DAME 20—Notre Dame reverted to recent form,
as loss to Michigan State sank Irish spread record to 10-21-1 last 32 under
Charlie Weis. Purdue bounced back from disappointing OT-loss to Oregon with
win against C. Michigan. Boilers own QB edge with Curtis Painter (9517 YP &
57 TDP career) over soph Jimmy Clausen (2 ints. in each game this season).
Big edge for Purdue is sr. RB Kory Sheets (5.7 ypc; scored 2 TDs in 6 straight
games) who ran for 141 yards last season against the Irish. TV—NBC
(07-PURDUE 33-N. Dame 19...P.27-21 P.42/119 N.26/49 N.34/52/2/377 P.22/37/2/252 P.0 N.1)
(07-PURDUE -21' 33-19 06-UND -14' 35-21 05-Und +3' 49-28...SR: Notre Dame 51-26-2)
***WASHINGTON 31 - Stanford 17—Creative blitz and stunt packages
devised by veteran Stanford d.c Ron Lynn were enough to impede San Jose QB
Kyle Reed last week, but similar aggressiveness might not work vs. punishing
Jake Locker and UW spread that rolled for 388 YR vs. Tree LY. And Jim
Harbaugh reportedly thinking very hard about using true frosh Nathan Luck at
QB if uneven performances of starter Pritchard (just 1 TDP) continue. Do-or-die
time for Ty Willingham, who needs immediate course correction or risks
impeachment and removal from office by angry Husky Nation.
(07-Wash. 27-STAN. 9...W.31-14 W.63/388 S.26/116 W.16/32/1/151 S.17/31/0/137 W.1 S.1)
(07-Washington -3 27-9 06-Stanford +19 20-3...SR: Washington 40-34-4
***PENN STATE 42 - Illinois 17—Cantankerous Penn State HC Joe
Paterno called his team’s 45-3 romp over Temple “sloppy†and said he wasn’t
happy with the effort. Mind you, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 and have outscored
the opposition by an average of 53-10! HC Ron Zook of rested Illinois has
expressed worries as well, but his issues are real concerns. Illini QB Juice
Williams was held to just 157 yds. total offense last season by Nittany Lions,
who have the guns to make revenge work. REGIONAL TV—ABC
(07-ILL. 27-Penn St. 20...P.18-17 I.38/216 P.36/129 P.21/38/3/298 I.11/27/2/120 I.0 P.1)
(07-ILL. +3 27-20 06-PSU -18 26-12 05-Psu -18 63-10...SR: Penn State 12-3)
*TULANE 37 - Smu 13—Although substantial favorite an exceedingly
strange pointspread role for long-suffering Tulane, inclined to support resurgent
host following last week’s satisfying win over La.-Monroe. Squalid SMU “stopâ€
unit (nation’s-worst 531 ypg) can’t stop anyone, and Mustangs have scored just
2 TDs in last 2 games behind misfiring true frosh QB Mitchell (10 ints. TY).
Green Wave has enough rushing and defense (only 223 ypg—No. 8 in country!)
to bludgeon visitor into submission.
(07-Tulane 41-SMU 34 (OT)...S.23-21 T.50/361 S.32/84 S.28/37/1/354 T.13/24/0/160 T.1 S.1)
(07-Tulane +6 41-34 (OT) 06-Smu -3 33-28 05-Tulane -3' 31-10...SR: Tulane 11-5)
*Southern Cal 37 - OREGON STATE 10—Granted, Corvallis has been a
real minefield lately for SC, which has failed to cover last 3 trips to Reser
Stadium and lost 2 of those outright (including 33-31 shocker in ‘06). But can’t
envision erratic OSU QB Moevao doing too much business vs. Pete Carroll’s
latest defensive monster that’s loaded with future NFL first-round draftees. And
since rebuilt Beaver “D†not yet generating the pressure of recent OSU stop
units, Mark Sanchez should again have plenty of time to locate his various
weapons downfield. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-S. CAL 24-Ore. St. 3...S.16-12 S.36/100 O.37/91 S.20/34/0/187 O.11/28/1/85 S.1 O.0)
(07-USC -16' 24-3 06-OSU +10' 33-31...SR: Southern Cal 58-9-4)
WAKE FOREST 32 - Navy 20—Swarming Demon Deacon defense has 50
takeaways in last 16 games (!) and holds MAJOR edge over smallish, slowish
Navy stop unit. Still, no surprise if tough-minded Middies hang inside roomy
impost, as Wake just 4-15 vs. line last 19 laying more than a TD. TV—ESPNU
(07-W. For. 44-NAVY 24...W.28-23 N.67/328 W.44/196 W.22/28/0/213 N.4/12/0/39 W.0 N.3)
(07-Wake Forest -3 44-24...SR: Wake Forest 6-2)
Western Michigan 23 - TEMPLE 16—Western, with 17 returning starters
and veteran leaders in nearly every platoon, saw its advantage grow when
Temple QB DiMichele suffered a shoulder injury at Penn State, with RS frosh
backup Stewart throwing three interceptions. Bronco QB Hiller (27 of 31, 5 TDP
in 41-7 walkover vs. Tenn. Tech), RB West, WR Simmons, and FS Delmas (3
ints.) too much for Owls.
(07-W. MICH. 16-Temple 3...W.19-6 W.40/162 T.27/54 W.24/39/1/276 T.6/25/0/92 W.0 T.1)
(07-WMU -12 16-3 06-WMU -30 41-7 05-Wmu -3' 19-16...SR: Western Michigan 6-0)
WEST VIRGINIA 35 - Marshall 24—New WV HC Bill Stewart already under
heavy fire in Morgantown, as Mountaineers off back-to-back losses for first time
since 2004. Meanwhile, hungry instate rival Marshall catching a little updraft
lately. Host can still hit “home runs†with star QB Pat White & speedy RB
Devine. But confident RS frosh triggerman Cann helping Herd attack strike nice
balance last couple weeks.
(07-W. Va. 48-MAR. 23...W.27-17 W.52/362 M.32/121 M.20/32/0/266 W.13/18/0/149 W.0 M.1)
(07-Wvu -24' 48-23 06-WVU -22 42-10...SR: West Virginia 7-0)
Pittsburgh 32 - SYRACUSE 9—With tough trip to South Florida up next, Pitt
probably content to ride star soph RB McCoy & HUGE defensive edge to any SU
win. However, that’s not reason enough to back awful Orange, who have
dropped their last 7 as Carrier Dome dog by average score of 46-16.
(07-PITT 20-Syr. 17...P.16-15 P.41/141 S.31/30 S.19/37/0/235 P.21/30/0/153 P.0 S.0)
(07-PITT -13 20-17 06-Pitt -7 21-11 05-PITT -12' 34-17...SR: EVEN 30-30-3)
Michigan State 34 - INDIANA 20—Indiana defense couldn’t handle run/
pass Ball St. combo of Lewis and Davis last week, and MSU has the potential
of giving Hoosiers the same headaches. Spartans have played a tougher
schedule, has won 3 straight, and QB Brian Hoyer has yet to find his best form
(45%, just 1 TD pass). Also, WR Mark Dell (24 ypc) is developing into a go-to
receiver and Javon Ringer is 2nd in the nation in rushing. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis
was just 11 of 25 passing with 0 TDs and 2 ints. vs. Ball State, and 95 of his 159 YP
came on two completions to Andrew Means. TV-ESPN2
(07-MICH. ST. 52-Ind. 27...M.28-9 M.67/368 I.17/22 M.20/23/0/190 I.13/19/0/171 M.1 I.2)
(07-MSU -3' 52-27 06-IND. +7 46-21 05-MSU -18 46-15...SR: Michigan State 40-14-2)
IOWA 26 - Northwestern 23—Although off to a slow start, Northwestern QB
Bacher still has an edge over Iowa counterparts, Christensen and Stanzi,
neither of whom has played well enough to win the job. Hawkeye defense
wasn’t quite as dominating last week at Pitt, and visitor has covered last 3 in
series. NU RB Sutton’s injury that forced him out of Ohio game didn’t appear
serious, but sr. Conteh is a quality backup. Wildcat defense making plays (rank
4th in sacks & TFLs).
(07-Iowa 28-N’WESTERN 17...N.24-18 N.33/116 I.34/70 I.21/36/0/299 N.28/55/3/277 I.1 N.0)
(07-Iowa +1' 28-17 06-Nwu +20 21-7 05-NWU +3 28-27...SR: Iowa 46-20-3)
DUKE 31 - Virginia 20—Sure, downtrodden Duke hasn’t been favored in an
ACC game since 2002 (and they lost that one). But these programs headed in
different directions. Confidence growing at Durham under new HC Cutcliffe,
while Charlottesville insiders insist longtime Virginia mentor Groh on his way
out. Little chance Cavs’ inexperienced QBs able to trade points with Duke’s QB
Lewis (26 TDP, only 10 ints. last 1+ seasons). TV—ESPNU
(07-VA. 24-Duke 13...V.17-12 V.34/133 D.34/84 V.22/32/0/191 D.15/35/1/145 V.2 D.0)
(07-VIRGINIA -18 24-13 06-Virginia -5' 37-0 05-VIRGINIA -24' 38-7...SR: Virginia 32-27)
MIAMI-FLORIDA 28 - North Carolina 27—Check status of UNC starting QB
T.J. Yates (ankle). If Yates is able to make post, then Tar Heels have enough
weapons to inflict some damage on Miami’s speedy defense. If he’s not,
resourceful Hurricane RS frosh QB Marve likely to lead host to more comfy
victory. TV—ESPN
(07-N. CAR. 33-Miami 27...M.20-18 N.46/183 M.36/109 M.17/33/4/302 N.15/23/0/218 N.1 M.0)
(07-UNC +7 33-27 06-MIAMI -19 27-7 05-MIAMI -20' 34-16...SR: North Carolina 6-5)
FLORIDA 42 - Mississippi 10—Ole Miss has sprung a couple upsets (‘99 &
‘00) and took UF to wire (in ‘08) in last 3 meetings, but that only keeps Gators
focused for SEC opener in The Swamp, where they are 7-1 vs. spread last 8.
Rebel QB Snead, who had his confidence shaken in 4-int. effort in Vandy loss,
won’t have it restored vs. smothering Gator “D†that hasn’t allowed a meaningful
TD in ‘08! UF’s star-studded cast (RB Moody had 55 YR in 9 carries vs.
Tennessee) taking pressure off Mr. Tebow (only 126 total yds. vs. Vols!).
(07-Fla. 30-MISS. 24...F.28-18 F.45/246 M.21/80 M.19/32/1/310 F.20/34/0/261 F.0 M.0)
(07-Florida -23 30-24...SR: Mississippi 11-10-1)
*LSU 37 - Mississippi State 3—Though LSU could suffer some letdown
following thrilling, last-minute 26-21 victory at Auburn, want no part of
regressing 1-3 MSU, which has failed to score a TD over last 8 Qs. Streak
continues here. Meanwhile, Tigers rapidly-developing RS frosh QB Lee will
take full advantage of explosive arsenal (RB Scott had 132 YR vs. Auburn!) vs.
wound-licking Bulldog defense that allowed a whopping 500 yds. in Georgia
Tech blowout loss. History repeats itself (Looking for an Angle). TV—ESPN2
(07-Lsu 45-MISS. ST. 0...L.22-9 L.50/198 M.26/10 L.14/22/0/149 M.14/33/6/136 L.0 M.1)
(07-Lsu -18' 45-0 06-LSU -33' 48-17 05-Lsu -14' 37-7...SR: LSU 65-33-3)
Northern Illinois 34 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 21—EMU “D†and special
teams have regressed this season, and the Eagles have yielded 134 points in
last 3 games. NIU is scoring 34 ppg, and the visitor has covered 7 straight in
this series. NIU QB Harnish sat out Indiana St. game with a foot sprain, and
Huskie HC Jerry Kill went with former starter Nicholson (on the mend from
shoulder surgery) & RS frosh DeMarcus Grady effectively.
(07-E. Mich. 21-N. ILL. 19...N.19-18 E.41/189 N.36/184 E.16/24/0/189 N.20/28/1/160 E.0 N.0)
(07-Emu +13' 21-19 06-Niu -7' 27-0 05-NIU -21 24-8...SR: Northern Illinois 22-14-2)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31 - Buffalo 29—Could this be a MAC title game
preview? Buffalo’s continuing improvement under Turner Gill suggests that
might be a possibility, and doubt Bulls will flinch at prospect of facing productive
CMU QB LeFevour after battling Chase Daniel and Mizzou’s high-octane attack
last week. Pliable Chippewa “D†should present plenty of opportunities for UB
QB Willy and big-play WR/KR E. Jackson (3 TDs vs. Mizzou) to make things
interesting. (06-Central Michigan -15 55-28...SR: Central Michigan 3-1)
Cincinnati 30 - AKRON 17—Since Cincy’s strong-armed 6-6 jr. QB Pike (20 of
24 for 241 yds. vs. Miami-Ohio) has picked up where injured Grutza left off, Bearcats
fast, sure-handed WRs Goodman & Gilyard (combined 41 catches, 6 TDs) should
repeatedly burn rebuilt Akron 2ndary in Zips 1st acid test of year. So, support
profitable Cincy (17-8-1 vs. spread since ‘06) making relatively-short 238-mile trip
to Rubber Bowl. (06-CINCINNATI -6 20-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
EAST CAROLINA 35 - Houston 29—Pirates trying to shake lingering
emotional effects of last week’s OT loss at N.C. State that quashed BCS hopes
stoked by ECU’s early upsets of Va. Tech & W. Virginia. Meanwhile, Houston
desperate to get off the schneid after 3 straight losses, and quick-trigger QB
Case Keenum (16 TDP, only 4 ints.) gives Cougars good chance to take this
one the distance.
(07-E. Car. 37-HOU. 35...H.23-14 E.40/173 H.46/139 H.30/41/2/345 E.11/26/1/156 E.1 H.1)
(07-East Carolina +13' 37-35...SR: East Carolina 5-3)
OHIO STATE 41 - Minnesota 9—Hype over Tyrelle Pryor’s ascension to the
starting QB slot last week against Troy and his 4 TD passes can’t mask the fact
that the Trojans outgained the Buckeyes in Columbus, and OSU led just 14-10
in the 4th Q. That being said, 4-0 Minnesota is jumping way up in class after
facing lighter weight competiton, and the Gopher pass defense ranks last in the
Big Ten after finishing 115th in the nation last season. Tressel’s Buckeyes
continue dominance over Gophers.
(07-Ohio St. 30-MINN. 7...O.24-15 O.47/250 M.29/45 M.27/44/2/232 O.18/29/0/209 O.1 M.0)
(07-Osu -23' 30-7 06-OSU -27 44-0 05-Osu -4 45-31...SR: Ohio State 40-7)
*NEBRASKA 23 - Virginia Tech 20—VT traveling a long way to play the
better-balanced Huskers. Hokies managed comeback win last week at North
Carolina despite 2 ints. by QB T. Taylor and with the benefit of an injury to Hokie
QB Yates. Nebraska OL bolstered by the return of sr. starter Christensen from
suspension. Bo Pelini has improved the NU defense, but his young LBs will be
tested by VT’s youthful, but talented, backfield. Hokies 11-2 last 13 as dog.
TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Nebraska 1-0)
CALIFORNIA 37 - Colorado State 19—Can the Mountain West play Larry
Holmes to the Pac-10’s Leon Spinks one more time? Hard to envision Cal
meeting same fate as befell various conference brethren, but still not sure
Golden Bears can run away and hide from better-than-advertised CSU bunch
that’s getting surprising production from QB Farris and rediscovered
semblance of infantry diversion last week vs. Houston. Cal a notorious
underachiever as DD chalk (3-13-1 last 17 in role).
(07-Cal. 34-CSU 28...Co.22-14 Ca.31/245 Co.42/157 Co.21/30/2/301 Ca.19/29/0/146 Ca.0 Co.1)
(07-California -14 34-28...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*GEORGIA 26 - Alabama 23—Though previously top-ranked UGA
demonstrating it didn’t deserve to drop in polls with its resounding 38-7
thrashing in Tempe, still ready to “take†with big, fast & athletic Bama, owning
plenty of playmakers on both sides of ball (school-record 2 ints. returned for
TDs vs. Arkansas). Tide’s battle-tested, now-mistake-free QB J.P. Wilson
(only 1 int.) keeps pace with Dawg counterpart Stafford, working play-action
vs. UGA defense that hasn’t faced such a deep, formidable ground assault
all year. Saban’s crew tough to beat by margin, with last 8 losses by 7 pts.
or fewer. TV-ESPN
(07-Georgia 26-ALA. 23 (OT)...G.20-18 A.35/164 G.40/153 G.19/36/2/224 A.17/35/0/185 G.0 A.1)
(07-Georgia +3' 26-23 (OT)...SR: Alabama 35-25-4)
AUBURN 20 - Tennessee 17—Not counting on UT winning the SEC East as
it did LY following 1-2 start. But do expect proud Vols to bounce back with
fiercely-competitive effort vs. Auburnbunch not easily getting “off the matâ€
following last-minute loss vs. LSU. UT HC Fulmer unhappy with QB Crompton,
but seriously doubt unfinished Tiger QB Todd dissects tight-covering Vol
2ndary (7 ints.; Florida had just 96 YP). AU still has ball security issues (9 TOs
last 3 games). Tigers just 4-7 vs. spread last 11 on the Plains, while resilient
Vols 4-0-1 vs. spread last 5 following SU loss. TV-CBS
(DNP...SR: Auburn 24-21-3)
Wisconsin 19 - MICHIGAN 17—Wisconsin HC Bielema spent the team’s
bye week expanding the playbook, getting the team healthy, and discussing the
merits of “cheddar vs. Swiss†cheese on The Big Ten Network. Michigan
counterpart Rodriguez had no time for TV revelry, as he had work to do. The
Wolverine defense has played well when not pressured by turnovers or poor
field position. Doubt now-focused Michigan will oblige Badgers by
committing 6 turnovers, as UM did vs. ND. Wisconsin RB P.J. Hill hasn’t
had much success against the vet Wolverine run defense (25 carries, 78 YR
in 2 games), so Badger QB Evridge will be forced to make some plays in a
very hostile environment. TV-ABC
(07-WIS. 37-Mich. 21...W.24-17 W.52/232 M.25/47 M.14/41/3/273 W.14/28/0/245 W.1 M.0)
(07-WIS. +2' 37-21 06-MICH. -14 27-13 05-WIS. +3 23-20...SR: Michigan 48-12-1)
CLEMSON 28 - Maryland 24—Since Maryland’s previously-meandering
offense now finding end zone with regularity, eager to take points with Terps.
Mobile backup QB Portis (originally at Florida; 9 carries for 98 yards last week)
an added dimension for humming UM attack, while Clemson QB Harper (only 3
TDP & 4 ints. in first 4 games; 27 & 6 LY) developing “happy feet†behind Tigers’
young, rebuilt OL.
(07-Clem. 30-MARY. 17...C.27-18 C.56/249 M.32/97 M.19/31/1/217 C.20/26/0/179 C.1 M.1)
(07-Clem. -3' 30-17 06-Mary. +18' 13-12 05-Clem. +2 28-24...SR: Clemson 30-24-1)
Fresno State 24 - UCLA 12—After second straight TD-less performance
last week vs. Arizona, banged-up UCLA “O†and QB Craft looking about as
uncomfortable as Barack Obama in recent interview with Bill O’Reilly. As long
as Bruin attack continues to flatline, have no problem supporting the far-greater
offensive competence demonstrated by Fresno, which lives for these sort of
dates and will have plenty of support at Rose Bowl (as many as 20,000 “Red
Wavers†could make the trip!). REG'L TV—ABC (DNP...SR: UCLA 6-1)
Bowling Green 24 - WYOMING 13—The last time Wyo covered a
pointspread (9-15-07 at Boise), Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton were
considered frontrunners in the presidential race! And with HC Joe Glenn’s
future job prospects in Laramie not looking much better than Rudy or Hillary’s
dashed White House dreams, prefer BGSU bunch that MAC sources say used
“bye†week to tune-up “O†(expect more runs from QB Sheehan in Falc spread
option). New Cowboy o.c. Cole might be readying his résumé, too, with
redesigned Poke “O†scoring paltry 10 ppg. (FIRST MEETING)
Oregon 38 - WASHINGTON STATE 15—We could excuse Mike Bellotti for
asking Dan Fouts if he has any eligibility remaining after yet another Oregon QB
(juco Masoli) was KO’d last week, forcing true frosh Darron Thomas into the fray
vs. Boise. And Wazzu’s Paul Wulff might be down to his third option at QB (RS
frosh Lobbestael) after starter Lopina & backup Rogers went down for the count
vs. Portland State. But Coug “D†still by far the most-vulnerable platoon on field,
so need more evidence than last week’s smackdown of Jerry Glanville’s Vikings
that WSU stop unit has plugged its many leaks.
(07-ORE. 53-Wash. St. 7...O.30-17 O.51/213 W.30/63 O.26/35/0/338 W.15/36/2/251 O.1 W.1)
(07-ORE. -19' 53-7 06-WSU +3' 34-23 05-Ore. -4 34-31...SR: Oregon 40-38-7)
*OKLAHOMA 35 - Tcu 10—Sooners well remember TCU’s 17-10 upset in
Norman three years ago, so expect special effort from OU team averaging 55
ppg (eased up) in its new no-huddle offense, directed excellently by Sam
Bradford (79%, 12 TDs, 2 ints.). Yes, points will not come so easy vs. the
respected Horned Frog defense. But TCU will discover its ground game mostly
grounded. (05-Tcu +25 17-10...SR: Oklahoma 6-4)
*SOUTH CAROLINA 42 - Uab 10—Realize USC mastermind Spurrier (says
he might switch to hotshot QB Garcia) still seeking answers on laboring offense,
but good chance he finally finds solutions vs. sieve-like UAB defense that’s
permitted an eye-popping 1703 yds. in 3 non-covering losses so far. Look for
swift, sturdy ‘Cock defense to spin a web around Blazers fleet-footed QB Webb
after facing highly-mobile SEC triggermen Nickson & Stafford in early SEC
battles. (DNP...SR: South Carolina 1-0)
TEXAS A&M 46 - Army 13—New A&M coach Mike Sherman is forcing a few
square pegs of the old Aggie offense into the round holes required by his prostyle
attack. Even so, A&M’s 6-5 soph QB Jerrod Johnson has 6 TDP in two
games relieving Stephen McGee, while Army looking toward the Pentagon for
help after just 223 yards and 7 completions last week vs. Akron. (06-TX A&M -27'
28-24 at San Antonio...SR: Tx. A&M 2-1)
BALL STATE 41 - Kent State 20—Could Ball State really be a stealth BCS
contender? Well, Cards’ prospects of running the table are still in order after
romping past Indiana. And even without star WR Love (scary cervical fracture
vs. Hoosiers), Nate Davis & Co. should have no trouble outscoring sagging KSU
bunch that allowed UL-Lafayette to gain 3/8 of a mile last week and has proven
poorer value to its investors than some financial services stocks (Flashes no
covers last 10 on board!)
(06-BALL STATE -3 30-6...SR: Ball State 22-17-4)
*South Florida 23 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20—Plenty of “buy†signs
flashing for Wolfpack during last week’s upset OT home win over E. Carolina.
RS frosh QB Russell Wilson (3 TDP) is emerging as heady field general, hardcharging
RBs Andre Brown & Jamelle Eugene are finally healthy, and athletic
defense hung tough even though it was missing 2 top players. Bulls’ have
burned backers’ money in 6 of last 8 away from Tampa.
(05-NO. CAROLINA ST. -4 14-0 (Meineke Car Care Bowl)...SR: N.C. St. 1-0) TV—ESPNU
FLORIDA STATE 23 - Colorado 13—Last week’s grisly home loss to Wake
(FSU had 7 giveaways & 139 yards in penalties!) proves early talk of Seminoles’
imminent return to grace was fantasy. On plus side, venerable d.c. Mickey
Andrews’ stop unit looked plenty gnarly and welcomes back a handful of
suspended starters vs. Colorado. Buff QB Hawkins’ lax ball security a major
concern against hard-hitting FSU. (at Jacksonville, FL)
(07-Fla. St. 16-COLO. 6...C.21-10 F.37/95 C.25/M27 C.34/54/2/306 F.8/18/0/126 F.0 C.0)
(07-Florida State -4' 16-6...SR: Florida State 2-0) TV-ABC
*Ucf 24 - UTEP 17—Though UCF (led 7-3 at H!) forgot to show up following
intermission of 34-7 setback at Boston College, still not endorsing floundering
UTEP, which has dropped 9 straight games and might be down several key
offensive starters, including QB Vittatoe (see Ticker). Knights developing dual
threat, 6-3 jr. QB Greco, who was benched after throwing 3 ints. vs. Eagles,
should bounce back vs. inviting Miner defense yielding 43 ppg over last 11.
(07-UCF 36-Utep 20...C.27-17 C.55/213 T.19/28 T.20/37/2/292 C.19/28/1/267 C.0 T.0)
(07-UCF -20' 36-20...SR: UCF 1-0)
*NEW MEXICO STATE 34 - New Mexico 29—Now that QB Holbrook (5
TDP vs. UTEP) back in cockpit of NMSU Air Raid after threatened benching by
HC Mumme, don’t mind giving Aggies a whirl vs. hated UNM. After all, Rocky
Long’s defenses haven’t exactly slowed Holbrook (945 YP & 8 TDP last 2 vs.
Lobos), and UNM will have to go with backup QB Gruner after starter Porterie
KO’d in last week’s humbling loss at Tulsa.
(07-UNM 44-Nms 34...S.30-20 U.39/154 S.28/108 S.47/64/2/473 U.18/25/0/342 U.1 S.0)
(07-UNM -7 44-34 06-Unm -6 34-28 05-UNM -22 38-21...SR: New Mexico 65-28-5)
*SAN DIEGO STATE 33 - Idaho 16—Which is the lesser of these two evils?
A cautious vote for SDSU, whose RS frosh QB Lindley at least demonstrated
some competence at Notre Dame (we won’t mention subsequent effort at San
Jose). And even James Carville would be hard-pressed to put a positive spin
on anemic Idaho bunch that’s on 1-11 pointspread run and absorbed vicious
beating vs. Utah State (the Aggies, not the Utes) last week. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*Nevada 27 - UNLV 23—True, UNLV off to its most positive start in many
years (3 wins already exceed victory total of each of Mike Sanford’s previous 3
teams!). But we’re accustomed to seeing similar encouraging early efforts from
Rebs, and it’s worth noting that losses to Nevada in each of the last three
campaigns have sent UNLV seasons spinning out of control. Wolf Pack “Dâ€
won’t be stretched as it was in recent outings vs. Big XII heavyweights Texas
Tech & Mizzou, and Rebel “D†was burned badly the last time it saw a QB
(Utah’s Brian Johnson) as mobile as Nevada’s Kaepernick.
(07-NEV. 27-Unlv 20...U.24-21 U.39/205 N.35/128 N.20/38/1/330 U.18/40/1/249 N.0 U.0)
(07-NEVADA -3' 27-20 06-Nevada -3' 31-3 05-NEVADA +1' 22-14...SR: Nevada 18-15)
*San Jose State 27 - HAWAII 20—Greg McMackin’s rebuilt Hawaii Red Gun
about as similar to June Jones’ previous editions as Sean Hannity’s political
views are to those of Alan Colmes. And with QB Graunke possibly
compromised by hand injury, Warriors won’t rediscover their old scoring magic
anytime soon. Not sure undersized UH “D†can blitz SJS QB Reed into submission
as did Stanford last week, and Spartans’ shutdown CBs Owens & Francies will
come in handy vs. Red Gun.
(07-Hawaii 42-SJS 35 (OT)...H.34-18 H.26/56 S.25/42 H.44/75/4/545 S.27/47/3/302 H.0 S.1)
(07-Hawaii -17 42-35 (OT) 06-HAWAII -25 54-17 05-Hawaii -6 45-38...SR: EVEN 15-15-
ADDED GAMES
*KENTUCKY 29 - Western Kentucky 10—In 1st-ever meeting between
these two, lean to excited WKU squad that has enough offensive skill to sneak
inside number vs. nicked-up UK team (key LB M. Johnson & DT Lumpkin
doubtful) that still has issues at WR (too many drops & incorrect routes,
according to coaches) & STs (kicker Seiber missed 4 of 6 FGs vs. MTS).
Wildcats, who narrowly escaped vs. M. Tenn. St., have huge lookahead toward
Bama next week. (FIRST MEETING)
Arkansas State 33 - MEMPHIS 27—Sure, Memphis in double-revenge
mode after dominating cross-river rival ASU for years. However, current reality
finds Red Wolves holding substantially stronger hand. Visitor’s irrepressible jr.
QB Leonard and much deeper well of defensive resolve will trump top-notch
Tiger WR corps.
(07-ASU 35-Mem. 31...A.24-17 M.45/177 A.39/134 A.16/37/0/255 M.12/25/0/218 A.2 M.0)
(07-ARKANSAS ST. -4' 35-31 06-Arkansas St. +9 26-23...SR: Memphis 27-22-5)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Troy 17—It’s payback time for OSU, which
remembers Troy’s boisterous celebration LY after the Trojans whupped the
Cowboys 41-23 in Alabama. State defense still has a few questions, but don’t look
for the Cowboy offense, led by heady jr. Zac Robinson, to let up. OSU (bye week
following Sept. 13 rout vs. Mo. St.) has extra time to prep for youthful Troy offense.
(07-TROY 41-Osu 23...T.29-20 O.38/241 T.48/174 T.34/49/1/388 O.18/37/2/191 T.1 O.3)
(07-TROY +10 41-23...SR: Troy 1-0)
*TOLEDO 41 - Florida International 20—Stark contrast in offensive
production for these two teams, as FIU ranks last in scoring and total offense
while Toledo scores 37 ppg & generates 396 ypg. Would draw the line at 3 TDs
as defense-shy Rockets have potential lookahead to homecoming vs. MAC foe
Ball State up next. (FIRST MEETING)
KANSAS STATE 48 - La.-Lafayette 20—Clever QB Michael Desormeaux
and Louisiana offense must be respected. But undersized Cajun defense (633
yards at So. Miss) should be just what the doctor ordered for K-State offense
after its spotty Wednesday play at Louisville. Juco RB Keithen Valentine should
be of more help to QB Freeman, while HC Prince’s STs already have 4 TDs TY.
(DNP...SR: Kansas State 2-0)
*RICE 42 - North Texas 27—After being manhandled by big, bad Texas,
Rice & star QB Clement will welcome shot at little, sad North Texas. Very
measured vote to dog, however, based on belief that Mean Green attack can
land some shots of its own against wounded Owl defense.
(DNP...SR: North Texas 1-0)
WRITE-IN GAME
TEXAS 38 - Arkansas 16—Youthful Razorbacks (4 ints.) humiliated 49-14
last week by ascending Alabama. But Arkansas always extra-focused vs.
Texas, whose early schedule of Florida Atlantic, UTEP & Rice has been none too
testing. UT and Colt McCoy will get their win, but humbled Hogs will fight all the way.
(DNP...SR: Texas 55-21) TV-ABC
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:54pm -
0 likes
THE GOLD SHEET (3-6)
KEY RELEASES
CAROLINA by 18 over Atlanta
PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-St. Louis game
CAROLINA 28 - Atlanta 10—Week Two redux for Atlanta, which, after
opening impressively vs. a troubled foe (Detroit), was stonewalled at an angry
Tampa Bay? Perhaps, as Falcs now must face another NFC South contender
(Carolina) in bounce-back mode. Improved as Atlanta “D†might be under new
HC Mike Smith, it’s unlikely the Falcs can shut down the Panther infantry as did
Minnesota’s strong front seven last week. And if Jake Delhomme can
effectively use play-action, expect his special rapport with favorite WR Steve
Smith (4 catches in return from suspension last week) to reappear. Atlanta still
not asking a lot of rookie QB Matt Ryan (only 31 total pass attempts in Falcs’ two
wins), and doubt Michael Turner (366 YR) provides enough ground support on
road to compensate.
(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0)
(07-Atl. 20-CAR. 13...A.12-10 C.28/90 A.28/88 A.20/27/0/189 C.13/29/1/145 A.1 C.1)
(07-Carolina -4 27-20, Atlanta +3' 20-13...SR: Atlanta 16-10
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
*PITTSBURGH 34 - Baltimore 13—Kudos to Joe Flacco for his
hurricane-aided 2-0 start. But initial road games are rarely easy for rookie QBs
(ask Atlanta’s Matt Ryan). Trying to decipher the confusing Steelers’ zone
blitzes, account for their mobile quartet of LBs, and keep an eye on active SS
Troy Polamalu figures to be a major challenge for tall Baltimore rookie Flacco
(who, by the way, left Pitt to transfer to Delaware!) Moreover, you can expect
a special effort from the Pittsburgh OL after it gave up nine sacks in last week’s
loss at Philly. Steelers “over†42-14-1 at Heinz since 2001! CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-PITT 38-Balt. 7...P.14-5 P.39/90 B.14/64 P.14/21/1/201 B.16/31/1/40 P.0 B.3)
(07-BALT. 27-Pitt 21...B.21-14 B.40/180 P.19/46 P.16/31/2/218 B.16/27/0/154 B.1 P.1)
(07-PITTSBURGH -9 38-7, BALTIMORE +3 27-21...SR: Pittsburgh 15-10)
OVER THE TOTAL Buffalo 29 - ST. LOUIS 24—The Rams’ back
seven has been shredded the first three games, with opponents completing 58
of 88 passes for 7 TDs with no interceptions. St. Louis has now lost seven
straight games going back to LY, the last six of them by 17 points or more!
Meanwhile, the Bills have fortified their aerial game with the addition of 6-5 WR
James Hardy, their second-rounder from Indiana. All that being said, this is the
NFL, and the opening spread near 10 could still turn out to be a heavy load for
improving Buffalo (3-0 for the first time since 1992). Rams HC Linehan fighting
for his job, and he still has talent on offense in RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc
Bulger, and WR Torry Holt. St. Louis “over†17-8-1 its last 26 at home.
(04-BUFFALO +1 37-17...SR: Buffalo 5-4)
Denver 31 - KANSAS CITY 20—While K.C. has started three different QBs
in the first three games, Denver’s Jay Cutler has emerged as one of the
brightest young passers in the league, with 714 YP and 6 TDs. And, while the
Chiefs’ rebuilt OL has failed to meld, the remodeled Bronco front wall has
allowed only one sack. Rebuilding K.C. 1-7-1 vs. spread last 9 at home.
However, with the pointspread so uncharacteristic for this old AFC West rivalry,
and with Chiefs able to run with Larry Johnson, might look for 10-3 series “overâ€
trend to continue.
(07-Denv 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1)
(07-DENVER 41-K. City 7...D.23-7 D.34/215 K.17/16 D.20/27/0/238 K.15/29/1/113 D.0 K.2)
(07-Denver +3 27-11, DENVER -7 41-7...SR: Kansas City 52-44)
CINCINNATI 23 - Cleveland 13—0-3 vs. 0-3. Bengals at least showed signs
of life last week with their near win vs. the Giants, as Carson Palmer hit 27 of 39,
Chris Perry the balanced offense with 70 YR, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh got
loose for 12 receptions. Meanwhile, Cleveland offense (9 ppg) was stifled in
Baltimore, with Derek Anderson (5 sacks, 3 ints.) under pressure, receiving
corps thin, and Jamal Lewis showing his age. Cincy 6-1 SU last 7 in series;
“under†7 of last 9 overall; Cleveland “under†8 of last 9 overall.
(07-CLE. 51-Cin 45...Ci.33-23 Cl.30/226 Ci.26/137 Ci.33/50/2/394 Cl.20/33/1/328 Cl.0 Ci.1)
(07-CIN 19-Cle. 14...Cl.25-15 Ci.33/155 Cl.26/136 Cl.29/48/4/244 Ci.11/21/2/115 Ci.1 Cl.0)
(07-CLEVELAND +7 51-45, CINCINNATI +2' 19-14...SR: Cleveland 35-34)
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Houston 20—Houston has played Jacksonville tough
over the years, covering 9 times in 12 series meetings. With the Jags’ offense
hurting in the line and at WR, don’t mind looking for a continuation, as Texan
offense had problems shaking off the rust in the red zone last week in
Tennessee. With 2007 seventh-round pick Zach Diles locking up one OLB
spot, Houston now has four rock-solid young guns in front seven (Diles, MLB
DeMeco Ryans, DE Mario Williams, DT Amobi Okoye) to counter Jacksonville’s
improving ground game (236 YR at Indy). Must acknowledge, however, the
hurricane-disrupted Texans have yet to play a home game.
(07-JACK. 37-Hou. 17...J.25-23 J.26/244 H.24/61 H.30/43/1/329 J.22/34/0/213 J.3 H.2)
(07-HOU. 42-Jack. 28...J.24-19 H.34/170 J.23/96 J.25/39/0/285 H.11/18/1/120 H.0 J.1)
(07-JACKSONVILLE -6' 37-17, HOUSTON -6' 42-28...SR: Houston 7-5)
NY JETS 24 - Arizona 16—The NFL’s answer to a Jamie Moyer vs. Randy
Johnson pitching matchup, with vet QBs Kurt Warner (37) & Brett Favre (38)
each a bit long in the tooth, but still quite serviceable. Warner has had more
chances to show his stuff early in the season, but expect that dynamic to
gradually change as Favre gains familiarity and Eric Mangini (hopefully)
loosens the handcuffs on the Jets’ offense, which was limited by conservative
playcalling in first two games. Will count on improved N.Y. OL to help Favre get
things going. Arizona only 3-7 SU last 10 on road.
(04-NY Jets -3 13-3...SR: NY Jets 4-2)
NEW ORLEANS 30 - San Francisco 27—With N.O. defense thinned by
injuries, it’s a good time for S.F. QB J.T. O’Sullivan to make his second road
start. Niner offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who liked what he saw of
O’Sullivan a couple of years ago while studying film of NFL Europe players,
says the QB could develop into one of his best with O’Sullivan’s combination of
mobility with a quick release. Offensive-minded Saints (4-11 last 15 as
Superdome favorite) have hardly protected their turf very well lately, but they do
have a penchant for going “over†(16 of last 22).
TENNESSEE 17 - Minnesota 16—Another battle of “fossil†QBs, with 36-
year-old Gus Frerotte opposing 35-year-old Kerry Collins after each was tabbed
to provide veteran leadership. But, with both teams limited in receiving talent,
this might turn out to be more of a contest between young RBs Adrian Peterson
(340 YR) of the Vikes and speedy Chris Johnson (276 YR) of the Titans. And
Minnesota has been No. 1 against the run for the L2Ys. In ground-oriented,
defensive affair, would look for Tennessee’s 13-7 “under†trend to extend. (04-
MINNESOTA -6 20-3...SR: Minnesota 7-3)
TAMPA BAY 24 - Green Bay 16—Aaron Rodgers of the Packers took his first
loss as a starter Sunday night vs. Dallas, but he still has 4 TDs & no ints. TY,
showing a better delivery & composure than many expected. However, the heat
and noisy crowd of Raymond James has done in many a good QB, as Brett
Favre showed with Green Bay many a time. The Bucs won last week in Chicago
despite 4 turnovers, with Brian Griese completing 38 of 67 passes! With Ryan
Grant still not 100% due to his sore hamstring, will side with rejuvenated veteran
Griese and home-loving’ Bucs (7-2 last 9 as a home favorite).
(05-Tampa Bay -3' 17-16...SR: Green Bay 30-19-1)
San Diego 26 - OAKLAND 13—The situation in Oakland seems to have at
least one bizarre twist each week, with the team’s PR department last week
distributing a column critical of HC Lane Kiffin. Mike Shanahan has pointed out
that he lasted one year and four games, and this is ominous Week Four of Year
Two for Kiffin. More importantly, S.D.’s talented CBs capable of taking
adequate care of the Raiders’ WRs, allowing Chargers to overload their injury/
suspension-thinned defense vs. the formidable Oakland ground game. With
S.D. 9-0 SU last 9 in this rivalry (and 9-1 last 10 vs. the line), will side with Philip
& L.T. over JaMarcus & “Run D.Mc.â€
(07-S. DIEGO 28-Oak. 14...18-18 S.32/206 O.23/49 O.24/37/2/193 S.14/21/1/156 S.0 O.1)
(07-S. Diego 30-OAK. 17...O.17-15 O.29/122 S.33/120 O.23/31/1/194 S.15/27/0/133 S.1 O.3)
(07-SAN DIEGO -9' 28-14, San Diego -8' 30-17...SR: Oakland 55-40-2)
DALLAS 27 - Washington 23—By all appearances so far, Dallas appears to
by Super Bowl bound. But this is a lonnng season, and new Washington HC Jim
Zorn seems to have done wonders with the Washington offense, boosting the
confidence of big, mobile, strong-armed QB Jason Campbell by allowing him to
fire away to talented targets Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, and Chris
Cooley. Scouts report Redskins happy they finally have their top cover guys
(Shawn Springs, Carlos Rogers, Fred Smoot) all healthy again. Washington 5-
1 vs. spread last 6 in series.
(07-DAL. 28-Wash. 23...W.28-19 D.25/72 W.17/62 W.34/55/1/361 D.22/32/1/287 D.0 W.1)
(07-WASH. 27-Dal. 6...W.22-7 W.37/131 D.16/1 W.22/31/0/223 D.14/27/1/146 W.2 D.0)
(07-DALLAS -10' 28-23, WASHINGTON -9 27-6...SR: Dallas 56-38-2)
*Philadelphia 27 - CHICAGO 20—Will side with the experience of Donovan
McNabb to make game-deciding plays over the still-evolving Kyle Orton (2 ints.
last week) vs. Philly pass rush (9 sacks last week). Bears again perfecting the
art of the close defeat (back-to-back 3-point losses), with offense becoming
increasingly reliant upon the work of impressive rookie RB Matt Forte (on pace
for 1600-yard season). Eagles (check status of Brian Westbrook’s ankle) still
seething from LY’s meeting at the Linc, when then-Chicago QB Brian Griese
drove Bears the length of the field without a timeout for last-second win.
Compelling “over†trends of note (Philly “over†11-6 last 17 away; Bears “overâ€
16-4 last 20 at Soldier Field). TV—NBC
(07-Chi. 19-PHIL. 16...P.21-19 P.25/123 C.23/72 C.27/41/0/314 P.21/34/0/211 C.0 P.0)
(07-Chicago +5' 19-16...SR: Chicago 26-10-1)
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:55pm -
0 likes
KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX
NCAA (ES 2-1) (DF 3-0) (KO 5-4) (MB 1-4)
Saturday, September 27th, 2008
Marshall (+15½) over @West Virginia
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Who would have thought Rich Rodriguez'
departure would have affected the Mountaineer
air attack more than their ground game?
Despite not being known as a good passing
quarterback Pat White managed to notch 9.2
and 8.0 yards per attempt the last two
seasons. In three games so far in 2008 White
has gained just 5.0 yards per attempt and that
includes a 48-21 win over FCS squad Villanova.
Over the summer new head man Bill Stewart
and his offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen talked
up the need for more offensive balance in
Morgantown by throwing the ball more. After
poor results in the first two games the plan
was junked and last week against Colorado
White and RB Noel Divine combined for 281
yards on 45 carries. White threw the ball just
15 times for an anemic 43 yards. Still, even the
ground game is down a notch in 2008. Last
season White and Devine combined to gain 7.4
yards per carry, and this season that number is
down to 6.1 ypc.
My best tech system on this game is not a play
against West Virginia, but a play on Marshall. It
is a 154-81 ATS cross-season bounceback
system. Marshall qualifies because of their 3-1
record off a dismal 3-9 mark in 2007. This
system is already 4-1 ATS this season,
including a 48-7 win last week on TCU over
SMU.
When Rich Rodriguez left for Ann Arbor assistant Bill
Stewart took the helm and led the Mountaineers
over Oklahoma 48-28 in the Fiesta Bowl. It was a
prime example of what I call the "Altobelli
Syndrome". That happens when an iconic head
coach leaves a program and the players try to prove
to themselves and the world that they were the
reason for the team's success and not the coach.
The Baltimore Orioles won the World Series in 1983
with coach Joe Altobelli after the legendary Earl
Weaver retired. Then the inevitable decline set in
and Altobelli was fired in May 1985. That decline has
started for the Mountaineers, and the betting public
has yet to catch up. Take the points. West Virginia
by 7.
Northwestern (+7½) over @Iowa
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
I like the look of this Northwestern team under
young head coach Pat Fitzgerald. They returned 16
starters and 47 lettermen from a team that won 6
games last season. They had to get used to new
systems on both sides of the ball, but have had 4
games against a fair even if non-intimidating
schedule to get used to those systems. I especially
liked Fitzgerald’s hire of Mike Hankwitz as the
defensive coordinator. Hankwitz has held the same
role at Texas A&M and most recently Wisconsin, and
always seems to field a quality unit on that side of
the ball. He has a surprising amount of talent (by
NW standards) to work with this season and the
results have been good so far at 11 points per game
and 282ypg. The key to the offense is senior RB
Tyrell Sutton who suffered a leg injury against Ohio
U this weekend, but was in street clothes on the
sideline after the game, and both he and teammates
say he will be fine. Check Sutton’s status for sure,
but we will continue under the assumption he will be
starting for NW. As I said above they haven’t faced the nation’s
toughest schedule thus far, but it hasn’t been the
nation’s worst either, as the 24-20 win at improving
Duke is far more impressive than it’s been in a long
while, and Ohio U gave Ohio St. a scare at the
Horseshoe. Also, the Southern Illinois team that the
Wildcats ran through was one of the nation’s top 5
1AA teams last season, and rated one of the top 15
this season by the Dunkel Index. The Wildcats are a
very business-like 4-0. Last season they won 3
conference games, only one less than today’s
opponent, the Iowa Hawkeyes. However, it must be
noted that Iowa did not play either Michigan or Ohio
St. last season while Northwestern played both.
Northwestern was outyarded by 23 per game in Big
10 affairs while Iowa was outyarded by 89 per game
against the far weaker conference schedule. With
similar returnee numbers (slight advantage to
Northwestern) and a small overall talent edge to
Iowa, I actually have these teams rated very close
to equal, making this line look about 4 points too
high. The Hawkeyes have played the toughest opponent
of either of these teams so far, losing by 1 at
Pittsburgh this past week. However, the rest of
their schedule has been cupcake city, and they have
really beaten up on some weak offensive clubs.
After being a cash cow as home chalk from 2001-
2005, Kirk Ferentz is only 3-7 ATS in that role since.
This line is too high based on the names and
histories of these two clubs. Take the points with
the under-the-radar Wildcats. Iowa by only 3
Mississippi (+23) over @Florida
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Going against Florida cost us on these pages last
week, but we have no hesitation in doing it once
again in this spot. Based on scheduling dynamics
and recent results, this looks like a prime spot to
fade Florida. The Gators enter off a spotlight win
over SEC rival Tennessee, a game in which they had
an extra week to prepare. But it wasn’t the typical
big number Florida win. The Gators managed only
243 total yards with quarterback Tim Tebow
completing 8 of 15 passes for 96 yards. And off the
win we have to consider their previous history under
head coach Urban Meyer. Over the last four years,
Meyer has had Florida geared-up off their bye going
4-0 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread. But
things are not so easy in their following game with
the Gators going 2-1 straight-up and 0-3 against the
spread. The two wins came by only 6 and 7 points.
In games following Florida’s two biggest rivals,
Tennessee and Georgia, Meyer’s Gators are just 1-5
against the spread with their average win coming by
14.3 points per game. Those two situations
certainly indicate negative coaching spread patterns
on Meyer heading into this game.
Ole Miss is in their first year under head coach
Houston Nutt. And he stepped into a pretty good
situation in Oxford, getting a very talented team that
just needed some good coaching. Things started off
nicely with a smashing of Memphis in their opener.
They then followed that with a near miss at Wake
Forest, rebounded by stomping Samford, and lost a
tough one last week to Vanderbilt. Ole Miss
dominated the game despite the loss, allowing only
11 first downs on 202 total yards and just 3.8 yards
per play. What did Ole Miss in was quarterback
Jevan Snead who threw 4 interceptions, which
basically handed Vandy the win. The Rebels played
a sloppy game overall with six turnovers and seven
costly penalties. Snead is a very good QB, and off
his worst performance, he’ll bounce back and keep
Ole Miss competitive here. Nutt and defensive
coordinator Tyrone Nix (DC at South Carolina) have
coached in the SEC for awhile so they know what to
expect in conference play, and that experience
cannot be overlooked.
With Florida off the huge Tennessee win, and Ole Miss off
a home loss, the Gators may not take the Rebels too
seriously. And that would be a huge mistake because
Florida had all kinds of trouble with them in the same exact
situation last year. The only difference (albeit a big one) is
that this game will be played in The Swamp. Ole Miss
actually should have won last year’s game, but came up 6
points short in their 30-24 loss. Last year’s experience
should give them confidence that they can hang with
Florida, and Nutt’s presence should give them more of a
chance. Taking over 3 touchdowns with a much improved
Ole Miss club off a home favorite loss is the way to go,
especially when we consider the negative indicators on the
host’s coach. Florida by only 17.
Alabama (+6½) over @Georgia
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Attractive game between a pair of teams who beat
up on overmatched opponents on Saturday.
Georgia has an incredible schedule, and a nearly
endless series of big games on tap. Georgia and the
20,000 fans they brought to Tempe were ready for
the Arizona State game and dominated, and there’s
no question that they had big edges in athleticism
and depth over the Sun Devils. Among Georgia
people there was tons of hype for that game
throughout the offseason. Obviously with ASU’s loss
to UNLV the week before it was not as intense as it
could have been, but this is still the third
consecutive big game for Georgia. Knowing that he’s
going to need to pull out all the stops to motivate
his team through their vicious schedule, Marc Richt
is pulling out the black shirts for this one. That
worked last year when they were a surprise for the
Auburn game, and worked again in the Sugar Bowl.
Alabama is off of an absolute whipping of Arkansas. And
while Arkansas is down, 35-7 at the half, with a full game
rushing yardage edge of 328-92 are nice aspects of a win.
The clunker that Bama threw in against Tulane following
their rampage over Clemson is helpful here, as it gives Nick
Saban a effective warning for his club on not believing the
hype after a big game. And this is a very big game. In
Matthew Stafford and John Parker Wilson, you’ve got a pair
of quality veteran quarterbacks. And they have possibly
the two best true freshman WR’s in the country to throw
to, in Georgia’s AJ Green (8 catches for 158 yards in
Tempe) and Alabama’s Julio Jones.
But what has us taking the points here is the play on
the line of scrimmage. Already young, Georgia has
lost some horses on their offensive front. They’re
well coached up there, but those injuries have
caused a shuffling in their lineup that didn’t matter against
Arizona State, but should matter against a Bama team with
a rock-ribbed defensive line. Nose tackle Terrence Cody is
an absolute beast, going 360 pounds and forcing Arkansas
to offer double team help to their center, Rimington Award
candidate Jonathan Luigs. After playing up the
summertime conventional wisdom that Bama actually
lacked defensive depth, Saban must be laughing now, as
their defense has waves of players. And Saban is one of
the best defensive game planners around, important to
have considering Georgia’s skill position weaponry.
Nobody has had any better luck with injuries than the
Crimson Tide. They’re as completely healthy as a team
could possibly be for their fifth game of the campaign.
Bama’s Arkansas walkover had a morning starting time in
the Central Time Zone, and they were back in Tuscaloosa
in time to watch Georgia’s win in the desert. The Bulldogs
flew a redeye back to Atlanta, and then bused out to
Athens. Obviously there’s time to recover, but will that all
nighter catch up to the Dawgs late in the 4th quarter?
There are some intangibles that favor Alabama, though of
course the UGA crowd will be revved up for this prime time
affair. But the depth of talent that Bama has defensively
is remarkable, and the concerns for UGA’s offensive line
are warranted. This looks like one of your last chances to
take substantial points with Bama for a long time. Could
go either way, and we’ll call it Bama by 1.
South Florida (-8) over @NC State
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
South Florida was in a tough spot last week, and the
fact that they laid an egg is not all that surprising.
Two weeks back, the Bulls hosted Kansas in a Friday
night spotlight game. They were down by 10 points
at the half, but scored 17 points in the 3rd quarter,
and then struck quickly in the 4th to take a 14 point
lead. But then the Bulls needed to dig down again
after Kansas tied the score at 34 with just over five
minutes to play. South Florida eventually pulled out
a 37-34 on a last play field goal, but the game left
them drained. And they suffered a huge hangover
last week at Florida International and the
unimpressive 17-9 win definitely raised a few
eyebrows. But South Florida has some excuses. First, and
most relevant, is how the game described above
played out. Second, the Bulls were playing the
worst team in major college football. The FIU
Golden Panthers owned just one win in their last 26
games coming in, so to expect any focus from the
Bulls was simply not going to happen. “I think we
were thinking a little bit ahead,†South Florida
quarterback Matt Grothe said. “Luckily we won that
game. It was a little scary.†And this game was also
on the day of the big grand opening of FIU’s brand
new on-campus stadium, which was a huge day for
the school and football program. They were going
to show up; this was their Super Bowl, especially
against an in-state opponent ranked # 12. “We
really, really played with everything we had,†FIU
coach Mario Cristobal said. So everything adds up
perfectly to draw a line through the game and forget
the results because South Florida basically just
showed up and went through the motions. And with
head coach Jim Leavitt saying, “We played about as
bad as we could have played, I don’t see how we
could have played worse,†look for his team to play
60 minutes of football here. NC State enters off an upset
win over one in-state foe East
Carolina. It was fitting that the game went to overtime
because the stats were dead even (literally). But it was
still the first game this year in which NC State actually
scored a touchdown against a real opponent after getting
shutdown against South Carolina and Clemson. And South
Florida’s defense is just as good if not better than those
two so look for State’s offensive troubles to comeback in
this game. And this comment by head coach Tom O’Brien
makes me believe that his team may bounce off last
week’s win: “They listen to the trash about how they can’t
score and how they’ve been scoreless for so many halves
(against FBS teams),†O’Brien said. “It bothers our young
guys. Our veterans are more used to it and don’t take it to
heart. This win got the weight off their shoulders and
showed them how it feels to win a big game.†So we have
two teams entering off wins, but South Florida is looking to
play much better while NC State is satisfied because they
finally scored a touchdown. The better team will be
extremely focused here and stretches out to a comfortable
win. South Florida by 14.
Colorado (+6) over Florida State
@Jacksonville, Florida
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Not buying into the “Florida State hype†was one of
my few exhibitions of wisdom on Saturday. You
may not have noticed the Seminoles on Saturday, as
Georgia/Arizona State and LSU/Auburn were
certainly more attractive games, but FSU’s offense
was horrendous. FSU turned the ball over 7 times,
but it wasn’t a case of them marching up and down
the field only to have turnovers kill them. The
Seminoles gained only 230 yards on 64 plays (yep,
that is, in fact, only 3.6 yards per play. Wasn’t Jimbo
Fisher supposed to solve all these problems?) Their
offensive design continues to be dreadful, and they
just aren’t a heady group. FSU has a lot of speed,
and it works well on defense, but they’re going to
have to score some points to get this cover and
where is that coming from? Colorado is used to
facing athletic teams from the Big 12 (and West
Virginia, who they beat on Thursday night), and
they won’t be intimidated.
Dan Hawkins son Cody is the quarterback for the
Buffs. He’s improved this season, completing 70%
of his attempts with 6 TD’s and 3 INT’s. Colorado
is a program that’s really coming together. Talent
has never been in short supply in Boulder, but a ton
of off-field problems predated Coach Hawkins’
arrival. And he had to win the team over. But it
appears that he has. After the upset win over West
Virginia Hawkins said, "I think they totally believe in
what we're doing and why we do it. And that is
huge." There’s no such buy-in at FSU right now. Bobby
Bowden is barely involved in any game-planning or
actual coaching. His heir apparent Fisher was
supposed to be a great developer of quarterbacks.
But he appears to have given up on Drew
Weatherford after his bad year in ’07. Christian
Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson were both awful
for the Seminoles at QB Saturday, and Colorado
enjoys a very solid quarterbacking advantage.
This game is not being played in Tallahassee; it is
being played in Jacksonville. Obviously 90%+ of the
fans will be rooting for the ‘noles, but there will be
empty seats, it isn’t the ordinary home crowd, and it
isn’t something that’s obvious to all bettors. In fact,
the buzz is so little, that you could log on to
Ticketmaster on Monday afternoon and order lowerlevel
30-yard line tickets for the game and you can’t
find major ticket scalping web sites asking for any
more than $150 apiece for the best seats. This
hardly screams “big gameâ€. Some suspended
players come back for FSU this week, bolstering a
solid defense. But the offense is a disaster and this
game looks like it’ll be a low scoring, tight affair, and
we like the direction the Buffaloes are heading in.
Colorado by 3
San Jose State (+3) over @Hawaii
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Following a terrific season, but thinking he’s peaked
with what he can accomplish with the program, the
coach leaves his established home for a better
paying job. An overmatched assistant takes over as
head man, and the losses mount. Sure, this
discussion could be about West Virginia, but it is
about Hawaii, wiped out by their only two 1-A
opponents thus far. Getting blasted at Florida is
understandable. Losing 45-7 at Oregon State (a
team that replaced their entire front 7 on defense)
on yardage of 485-211? Not so much. Even the 1-
AA home game in between, a 35-17 win over Weber
State, was blasé. You may have read that Tyler
Graunke, the UH quarterback, is supposed to be back in
the lineup, but against the vulnerable defense of Oregon
State he threw 27 passes at 4.4 yards per attempt with
two interceptions. Nothing to be scared about. This team
lost not only head coach June Jones, but QB Colt Brennan
and a lot of other good players as well, as they returned
only 9 starters. They’re a shadow of what they were
under Jones and the fan support is suffering, as there was
a lot of controversy over Jones’ departure and the
culpability of the university administration and the athletic
department leadership in not keeping him around.
And in this game they’re taking on a team that’s better
than many realize. San Jose State’s Dick Tomey has done
a fine job at a school that was considering dropping the
sport within the past decade. In a loss to Stanford on
Saturday night, Cal transfer Kyle Reed completed 23 of 26
passes, but protection was a major issue, as the Spartans
allowed him to be sacked six times in the second half.
There were some instances where he should have thrown
the ball away. But San Jose State can compete against a
team below the BCS level of talent (outrushed San Diego
State 293-6). And their 23-10 loss to Stanford was 16-10
and the Spartans had the ball at midfield with a couple of
minutes left. Stanford made the strange decision (first
and goal from the 9 with less than a minute left and no
timeouts for SJSU) to punch in a TD to make the margin
look more significant at 23-10. Stanford isn’t that bad, and
at this point a significantly better team than this depleted
Hawaii club, something that is obvious when you compare
their results against Oregon State. Stanford outplayed
Oregon State on the line of scrimmage, with a 210-86
rushing edge. That same OSU team outrushed this Hawaii
team 217-57. Of course those stats were all from games played on the
mainland, and UH has exhibited a big home field edge over
the years. But even with better talent they are only 2-4
against the spread in their last six outings as a home
favorite. Hawaii has a week off but this coaching matchup
of Tomey against Greg McMakin is men vs. boys. There
will definitely be support for Hawaii in the betting markets
by those who are used to playing Hawaii at home and have
trouble realizing that these two teams are completely
different from the ones that resulted in a 42-35 Hawaii
road win at Spartan Stadium last season. Take the points
and look for the outright upset. San Jose State by 4.
KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX
NFL (ES 1-1) (DF 0-2) (KO 1-2) (MB 2-1)
Sunday, September 28th, 2008
@Cincinnati (-3½) over Cleveland
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Both teams come into this rivalry game
with a deserved 0-3 record. But the
Bengals woke up last weekend falling in
overtime to the defending Super Bowl
champ Giants 26-23. The offense showed
some spine, erasing deficits three times
during regulation. Carson Palmer had his
first solid game of the season,
withstanding a furious Gotham pass rush
(six sacks) to deliver 27 completions in 39
passes. Browns' QB Derek Anderson was supposed
to be the pillar of a revived Cleveland
attack. In 2007 he orchestrated a boomor-
bust air game that completed lots of
long passes (averaged nearly 13 yard per
completion) with a higher than average
interception rate. So far in 2008 there has
been no boom only bust. Anderson has
completed less than 45% of his passes and
averaged less than 10 yards per
completion. My top tech on this game is a 108-44 ATS
system that plays on losing teams that must
give a good effort now because the road ahead
looks difficult. On deck Cincinnati has a visit to
a 3-0 Dallas team that is off an impressive 27-
16 Sunday night nationally televised win over
the Packers at Lambeau. This system is already
1-0 ATS in 2008 with a winner on Minnesota
over Carolina last week.
Long term I'm not a fan of the Bengals'
prospects. Over the offseason Marvin Lewis
wanted to get rid of bad seed wideout Chris
Henry, but owner Mike Brown overruled him.
The slight has undercut Lewis' authority in the
locker room. But a good effort on the road
against the Super Bowl winning Giants should
be enough inspiration to succeed here. Lay the
points. Cincinnati by 11.
Texans (+7½) over @Jaguars
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
The Texans were in a terrible spot last week. Not
only were they playing in just their second game of
the season, but they also had to deal with much
more important things than football. Hurricane Ike
wrecked havoc in the city of Houston, and the
Texans’ players had to deal with the harsh realities.
It was impossible for them to focus on football when
they and their families were directly affected by the
nasty storm. They lost close to four days of
preparation, so their results from Sunday’s game at
Tennessee should be ignored. But now they’ll be
back into the swing of football full time, and their
improvement will show on the field this week as
they face another divisional opponent in
Jacksonville. Houston’s running game was very impressive in the
loss at Tennessee. The Titans possess one of the
best defensive lines in the game, and heading into
Sunday’s game, they allowed only 33 yards on 1.9
yards per rush to the Jaguars and 88 yards on 3.1
yards to the Bengals. Those numbers are no fluke
after ending last year allowing only 91 yards per
game on 3.8 yards per rush. But the Texans gashed
them yesterday for 148 yards on 5.2 yards per rush.
Steve Slaton had a field day, and the zone blocking
scheme seems to be working for Houston. Despite
scoring only 12 points, the Texans had plenty of
chances throughout the game. In fact, they had the
ball inside the Tennessee 14-yard line six times, but
came up empty on those possessions. Head coach
Gary Kubiak is catching some heat for sticking with
Matt Schaub at quarterback. Schaub has not played
well at all with 6 turnovers in two games. But he
was facing good defenses in Pittsburgh and
Tennessee, and you cannot underestimate the
setbacks caused by Ike. At 0-2, the Texans are
desperate which might cause Kubiak to make a
hasty QB switch to Sage Rosenfels. Still like the
Texans in this spot though, regardless of who’s
under center. Jacksonville was one play away from being 0-3.
They were bailed out on a 4th down penalty on the Colts, which kept
their final drive alive on way to the game winning field
goal. And that was after the Jags held the ball for over 25
minutes in the 2nd half. Even with the win, the Jaguars still
have issues. We can’t overlook the fact that the Jags are
still missing two starters on their offensive line. A center
and a guard missing make it extremely difficult for
Jacksonville to run up the middle, a spot where the Jags
love to run the football. They shredded the Colts for 236
yards on the ground, but that’s the norm for them when
facing Indy. David Garrard admitted to reporters he could
“exhale†after Sunday’s win, and that really doesn’t shout
confidence right now. The Jags are satisfied off their first
win while the Texans will give their all to avoid a 0-3 start.
Jaguars by only 1.
Niners (+6) @Saints
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
It’s never a bad idea to fade teams with poor
defenses in the NFL, particularly as the pointspread
gets larger. The Saints D is again a weak outfit.
Thus far this season they’ve allowed nearly 28
points per game, on 392 yards per game, and 6.2
yards per play. They rank 27th or worse in all those
categories. And before you excuse away these
numbers by saying, “well they played the Broncos,
and Denver is playing in some very high scoring
games,†realize that New Orleans’ other two games
were against the Redskins and the Bucs, who are
much closer to average offensively. And the Saints
offensive production resulted in part from having to
let it fly when trailing 21-3.
And while these are not you father’s 49ers, neither
are they the horrific outfit from last season. Alex
Smith will get his guaranteed $25 million, but is
unlikely to ever see the field again for this ballclub.
JT O’Sullivan had yet another strong performance on
Sunday. Sure it was only against the Lions (that
was an excellent report on Detroit by Dave Fobare
that we emailed to you), but the Niners outgained
the Detroit 5.9 yards per play to 4.4, marking the
third straight impressive boxscore for San Francisco.
O’Sullivan is averaging an impressive 9.4 yards per
pass attempt on the season. With only a single
interception on the season thus far, he could be a
guy who is really emerging into an impressive
player. In the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Lions, the Niners
have faced a pretty blah set of opponents, but it is
well worth noting that they’re gaining 6.0 yards per
play, while giving up 4.4. Against some tougher
competition (Bucs, Redskins, Broncos) the Saints
gain 6.3 yards per play while allowing the 6.2 we
mentioned earlier. The Niners were a team that
everyone had on their “look out for these guys†list
last season, but Alex Smith and injuries hurt them.
Now they’ve got O’Sullivan, the unheralded but
effective quarterback, and are enjoying some better
health. When you see the difference between their
offense last season and this season, and the decline
of Detroit’s, it looks like Mike Martz is a positive
influence on an offense, even relatively quickly. This
club has a lot of good young players who may be
blossoming. There is some concern that they gave
up some yards and points on the road a couple of
weeks ago to a beat-up Seattle offense, but the
Saints defensive vulnerabilities strike us as being
more important. Taking a TD with them against a
club with significant defensive issues doesn’t look
like the worst move to make on Sunday’s NFL card.
Niners by 1.
Falcons (+7) @Panthers
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Matt Ryan had a real nice advantage in his 5th-year
senior season at Boston College. He had already
graduated, so he was taking a class or two as a
graduate student, but for the most part he was
majoring in football. He would show up to watch
film for hours each day before the rest of the team
gathered for his afternoon practice. Steve Logan
(former East Carolina coach) had most recently been
a QB coach in NFL Europe and BC head coach Jeff
Jagodiznski was previously Brett Favre’s offensive
coordinator with the Packers. So he had all kinds of
time to watch film and learn from a couple of
coaches with a lot of background in helping coach
professional quarterbacks. As a result, he is more
prepared than most to be an NFL quarterback and is
averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt, which ties
him for 7th in the league. Veterans on the Falcons
suggest that after the horror of having Bobby
Petrino as head coach, Mike Smith and his staff are
a breath of fresh air. Smith’s defenses at
Jacksonville certainly always looked well coached, so
maybe we shouldn’t be surprised by the new
professionalism being exhibited by Atlanta.
The Sporting News projected a 1-15 season for
Atlanta but this team is making good progress.
They’ve been fortunate to have home games against
sad-sacks Detroit and Kansas City, but they blew
both clubs out and the fact remains they’re on the
right track. The Falcons are averaging 6.2 yards
per play while allowing 4.9. Carolina has played
stiffer competition but has averaged only 4.5 yards
per play while allowing 4.9. The Panthers haven’t
looked sharp since their opening win over the
Chargers. In their loss at Minnesota on Sunday they
didn’t score after taking a 10-0 lead with 9:55 left in
the second quarter. They were penalized 12 times.
And they gained only 203 yards of total offense.
Valuable special teams performer and situational
linebacker Dan Connor (3rd round rookie out of Penn
State) tore his ACL and is done for the season.
While there are new faces on the Atlanta coaching
staff, many of these players are familiar with each
other from having played in the division together.
As bad as the Falcons were the past two seasons,
they’re won in Charlotte as an underdog both times.
Panthers have won only 3 of their last 18 games by
more than 7 points and since the start of the 2003
season are 10-21-1 against the spread as a home
favorite. In fact, you could likely do a lot worse
than simply taking the points in games involving
either one of these coaches. Take the points in a
game that will go to the wire. Panthers by only 3.
Monday, September 29th, 2008
Ravens @Steelers Under The Total
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
No line has been posted on this game yet due to the
uncertain status of Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger
who suffered a hand injury against Philadelphia on
Sunday. Big Ben and the Black and Gold offense
were rendered surprisingly ineffective at Philly as
they could muster only 6 points on 180 yards. They
struggled mightily with Eagles’ defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson’s blitz packages and it won’t be any
easier here against Rex Ryan’s attacking defense.
However, Pittsburgh can afford to be more patient
with the running game here, knowing that the
Ravens offense is far less capable than Donovan
McNabb and the Eagles. Now the line will certainly
adjust downward if Byron Leftwich is under center
instead of Roethlisberger, but that will create a more
cautious and probably punchless Pittsburgh attack,
as Leftwich will be a sitting duck for Baltimore. I
expect Pittsburgh to attempt to win this game with
its defense, more worried about field position than
going up top with the passing game.
The Ravens will likely do the same thing, as
subjecting Joe Flacco to Dick Lebeau’s blitz packages
any more than they have to just wouldn’t be fair at
this point of the rookie’s career. The Ravens lack
weapons on the outside, but have a very deep
backfield with Willis McGahee, Le’Ron Mclain, and
Ray Rice. With those three healthy, they won’t mind
as much as some teams repeatedly plunging it into
the teeth of the Pittsburgh defense. The Baltimore
defense looks as strong as ever, as they’ve allowed
only 333 yards TOTAL in their two games thus far.
As I said last week, until they wear down in
December, I expect them to be top 5 on that side of
the ball. Last week I recommended Baltimore Under in these
pages. It was a winner at the opening price, but a
loser if you bet it on Sunday. One of Baltimore’s
scores was a defensive touchdown. They face a
much stiffer defense this week, and I expect this to
be a smashmouth type affair. Both teams will run
and run some more vs. defenses that simply have
not been run on in years. Neither team wants to
play from behind thus neither will want to make the
first mistake. I expect the number to be
somewhere around 36 with Rothelisberger starting,
and most likely 33.5 or 34 if he’s not. Either way,
the call is Under as the first one to 17 may just be
the winner here.
Systems & Strategies
Running To Daylight: Through Game 5, play any NFL team that rushed for more than
200 yards last week and is a dog or fave up to -7 today.
Record Since 1990: 77-55 ATS (58.3%)
This week’s application: Jacksonville Jaguars
Bye Bye: Play against any undefeated college road favorite in Game 3 or later coming
off a bye week.
Pointspread Record Since 1983: 73-44 (63.5%)
This week’s application: Oregon State (play against USC), Michigan (play against
Wisconsin)
That’s More Like It: Play on any 1-2 team off a loss in Game 4 vs. an undefeated
conference opponent off of back to back straight-up and pointspread wins.
Pointspread Record since 1980: 17-6 (74%)
This week’s application: Michigan over Wisconsin
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:56pm -
0 likes
Power Sweep
4* UNLV 37-27
3* LSU 38-0
3*Penn St. 41-13
2* Ohio St. 41-13
2* North Carolina (+) 20 (+) - 23
2* Auburn 23-6
Underdog Michigan +7 20-17
NFL
4* Tenn 27-9
3* Over Cleveland 31-30
2* Houston (+) 17 (+) -20
2* San Fran 27 (+)-28
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:57pm -
0 likes
Power Plays 4*'s
CFB:
4* Pittsburgh
4* Michigan State
4* LSU
4* N. Illinois
4* Notre Dame
4* Ohio State
4* Nebraska (if line is 7 or less)
4* California
4* Georgia (if line is 7 or less)
4* Bowling Green
4* Oregon
4* South Carolina
4* South Florida
4* FSU
4* New Mexico State
4* San Diego State
4* Kansas State
4* Texas
NFL:
4* Carolina
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:58pm -
0 likes
SPORTS REPORTER - NCAA
(SBB 1-1) (BB 4-9-1) (REC 7-5-1)
SUPER BEST BET
*WASHINGTON over STANFORD by 27
College football talking heads yap about Washington like they expected the Huskies to be
3-0 at this point.We shouldn’t be surprised that they are winless, but we should be happy
that they are mentioned in the same sentence with a pathetic Washington State team.
The kids are pretty good, they earned for us in Week 2 as a Best Bet selection against a
BYU team that has just crushed people since, and the Huskies should do so again this
week. Willingham had an extra week to prep for what is arguably the biggest game of
his career in Seattle. Gotta get this conference home win…or the circling buzzards start
dive-bombing. His offense continues to improve and QB Locker gets no love due to the
0-3 start, but his legs alone will be too much for a flat-footed Cardinal group to handle.
The Huskies defense ain’t world class, but keeping moderately quick Stanford RB Gerhart
under wraps shouldn’t be too tough and the rest of the Cardinal offense is as scary as
teddy bear. Let’s not forget that BYU put up only 28 points a few weeks back and has
since pasted 59 and 44 against UCLA and Wyoming. WASHINGTON, 44-17.
BEST BET
NEVADA over *UNLV by 8
The Rebels are rolling after a 3-1 start including wins over two BCS conference schools.
Not to rain on their Vegas strip parade, but ASU is a shadow of their last year’s form and
Iowa State – well – is Iowa State. Nevada has played a much tougher slate, ranking dead
last in the national pass defense rankings after playing Texas Tech and Missouri. Okay,
that actually makes sense. The defense is not LSU’esque, but they will appreciate playing
a less-than-dynamic group that won’t spread you out all over the field. Offensively,
QB Kaepernick is without his top two tailbacks, but he can motor and his WR corps is
dangerous. Lost in the video game-like loss to Mizzou were several drives that saw
Nevada handling the Tigers up front and pounding the ball inside. That’s a testament to
the strength of the o-line and to the offense as a whole. Pack will keep the Fremont
Cannon for the fourth straight year. NEVADA, 35-27.
BEST BET
*INDIANA over MICHIGAN STATE by 4
Gotta love the square headline on a square Web site that said: “Indiana Hoosiers Football:
A Program (Once Again) in Decline.†Right. One game, one loss vs. an intra-state rival
with a good offense that was laying in revenge, and Indiana should pack it in? It’s still
early in the season, and Indiana’s defense hasn’t been worn down yet. Their offense will
show Michigan State a lot of looks and a lot of speed that the Spartans haven’t seen
since the Cal game, where Michigan State allowed 38 points. “Potentially program-killing
loss,†said the anti-Indiana story. Hmmm, all the Hoosiers need to do is score first, put a
run-based road favorite in a trailing scoreboard position, and they are in the driver’s seat.
Michigan State got only 16 first downs vs. Notre Dame last Saturday, while they handed
it to RB Javon Ringer 39 times. Their QB Bryan Hoyer is now 2-for-2 sub 50% pass completions
vs. BCS foes, and in neither of those outings did he have the excuse of bad
weather he had when 5-for-15 passing vs. Florida Atlantic. INDIANA, 31-27.
BEST BET
*FLORIDA over MISSISSIPPI by 9
This might sound funny, but Ole Miss is probably the best
offensive that Florida has faced to date. Perhaps it was a bit premature here to be suggesting
that Florida’s interior D could be exploited by Miami-FL or Tennessee. So we’ll
stick with the theme and put the hammer down this time. When Ed Orgeron was booted
from Ol’ Miss, Houston Nutt inherited a huge offensive line that will be a problem for the
inexperienced Gator defensive tackles. The Florida defensive unit has only given up 19
points on the year, but that was against a few offensive bottom feeders. Unfortunately for
Rebel backers, the offense will have to put up 30+ to pull the upset against Tebow’s
offense, which has yet to explode. Confident QB Jevan Snead will get ‘em close. The
under in Gainesville this week will be very OVER-rated. FLORIDA, 37-28.
BEST BET
*TEXAS over ARKANSAS by 38
Mack Brown has been at Texas
long enough to understand the importance that this game holds to his alum base. Bobby
Petrino, well, his history is stooped in the WAC/Pac-10/Big East, so he might need a history
lesson. Brown’s focus will be there, as will his team’s superior talent. Arkansas? Just
exposed by Alabama. The energy in the Texas locker room is real, and QB Colt McCoy has
his team firing out of the gates. He’ll use his arms and legs to spit-roast the visiting Hogs
from the opening kick. Arkansas QB Dick is worse than average, and doesn’t have much
around him besides an undersized starting tailback (5’7, 175 lb) and an NFL-caliber tight
end. New Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp coached against Dick while at
Auburn, and knows his weaknesses. He’ll bring pressure and force the visitors into bad
situations – not where Dick excels. McCoy has the look of a seasoned vet wanting to
make amends for his sophomore slump. He gets a hanging curveball this week and will
go yard. TEXAS, 52-14.
RECOMMENDED
*SOUTH CAROLINA over UAB by 35
Tough for an offensive guy like Spurrier to watch his offense sputter week-in, week-out.
When he does get a chance to pass the ball and build his team’s confidence – he takes
it. Enter UAB, who hasn’t given up less than 548 yards to any opponent and the low water
mark was against an average Tennessee offense. QB Chris Smelley will be given the
opportunity to throw it early and often in an attempt to get lathered up for the meat of
the schedule. No need to sweat the back door cover with a defense that is top 20 nationally
against a smaller, slower, weaker foe. Two years ago after beating Wofford by just 7,
the Ole Ball Coach put a 45-6 hurting on FAU. It won’t be that bad this Saturday, but the
general result will be the same. SOUTH CAROLINA, 41-6.
RECOMMENDED
*EAST CAROLINA over HOUSTON by 20
This is, in effect, a third straight week on the road for Houston and they will have spent
only a few days in their home area in that span. East Carolina knows how to get
turnovers. Houston passes a lot. It is the recipe for implosion with a new coaching staff
getting a relatively young and very distracted team all hyped up on its latest high-powered
offensive system, only to be met by an opponent that can mess ‘em up with a pass
rush and playmakers in the secondary, while the ECU defense drops in class from opposing
defenses already faced such as Virginia Tech,West Virginia and NC State. Meanwhile,
their offense can be the latest in a long line of units to exploit a Houston defense that
hasn’t made a key stop since Moby Dick was a minnow. Houston is 2-10 ATS since Case
Keenum took over as the starting QB last year. He usually gets headlines for big passing
yards. Bettors going against Houston usually get the money. EAST CAROLINA, 41-21.
RECOMMENDED
*KENTUCKY over WESTERN KENTUCKY by 13
With regards to his offense, wildcat coach Rick
Brooks stated last week that he would be “trying to get our young guys some repsâ€.
Translation – the old guys aren’t cutting it and the SEC schedule is knocking on our door.
His defense has been excellent – yielding only 6 ppg. Brooks will be missing starting
middle linebacker Johnson and starting defensive tackle Lumpkin weakening the middle
of the D. Could be a situation where a lesser known in-state team makes the short 150-
mile trip and battles the big state school who has one eye on a battle in Tuscaloosa next
week. KENTUCKY, 26-13.
RECOMMENDED
*OKLAHOMA STATE over TROY by 27
The Okie State coaches were under a lot of heat during the short week leading up to the
trip to Troy last season. We’ll spare you the details, which you may already have been
aware of. They took a lot of heat afterwards for what appeared to be an unprepared,
nationally televised defeat. Unlike Ohio State, whose offense is still finding its way and
seems to have scrimmaged its way into Big Ten season, the Cowboys’ starting QB and
their systems are in place. Troy has a history of being competitive when stepping up in
class on the road. But rarely are the trips on back-to-back Saturdays, against a fresh visitor
with proven ability to be productively balanced on offense. The Cowboys have made
a habit of streaking to leads vs. non-conference visitors on this field and have had two
weeks to figure out the best way to build up a big halftime lead, the better to turn the
second half into “point-to Texas A&M time.†OKLAHOMA STATE, 45-18.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
*TULANE over SMU by 17
Tulane’s defense got 9 sacks combined against Alabama and East Carolina, and 4 more
against the Monrovian QB on the move last Saturday. Under first-season head coach June
Jones, SMU wants to throw it on 70% of their offensive downs, with freshmen QBs. But June
bugs need to go through the pupal stage before they have a chance to emerge as adults
capable of eating yards. Toledo Bob’s Tulane D will spray the eggs. TULANE, 34-17.
USC over *OREGON STATE by 24
Oregon State has a weak front seven, but if they can keep USC’s stable of horses from gashing
with the run, the secondary should keep QB Sanchez from bombing away. Beaver coach
Mike Riley is usually pretty good when he has prep time and the bye week before this one
should help him keep it respectable. USC, 31-7.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
CONNECTICUT over *LOUISVILLE by 4
Connecticut might do unto Louisville what Louisville did unto Kansas State: run them into a
frantic deficit. Put Cards’ QB Hunter Cantwell in a trailing position and Louisville won’t look
so good. Does Louisville get anything close to 303 rushing yards and 41 minutes of clock
time against the defense of the reigning co-Big East champs? Probably not. Does anyone
even realize that UConn is the reigning co-Big East football champ? CONNECTICUT, 20-16.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
*WAKE FOREST over NAVY by 12
Duke beat Navy by 10, so Joe Public will expect more from one of the ACC’s best. Wake’s
general ability to win while keeping the score close makes jumping on that train a bit
sketchy. The defenders of our country don’t keep the end zones safe from enemy intruders
on the football field. Buddy Green’s defense has given up 97 points through three games, so
expect a surgical performance from Dr. Riley Skinner. Midshipmen offense is different
enough for them to score some, but their best running back Kettani admitted to being only
about 75% last week despite putting up 133 yards vs. Rutgers. He’s a play away from visiting
the medical staff and ending his day early. WAKE FOREST, 29-17.
WESTERN MICHIGAN over *TEMPLE by 3
The running game has been coming around for Western Michigan, and they need that
because Tim Hiller’s dink-and-dunk passing can only get them so far. But Western Michigan
continues to try to get by with a faker defense that needs turnovers to stop what they can’t
stop without ‘em. Temple made 10 turnovers in its first four games last year, 8 this year so
they don’t have all the loser dust out of their system yet. However, Temple’s D is showing that
it is capable of offsetting those boners by getting them back at about the same rate. WESTERN
MICHIGAN, 26-23.
*WEST VIRGINIA over MARSHALL by 16
The favored Mountaineers have been able to work through the plastic arrows launched their
way by the intra-state chump for two consecutive seasons since coach Snyder pushed for
the series as part of his Marshall Plan. But when a favorite can’t throw the ball and suddenly,
its 50% third-down conversion offense of the past has regressed to only 35%, then it is
not investment-worthy. Stickin’ to the “stay away from West Virginia†stance stated early and
often. Coaches have been teaching the Marshall defensive players how to tackle better,
which can’t hurt. WEST VIRGINIA, 30-14.
PITTSBURGH over *SYRACUSE by 13
“Hi, we’re from the NFL and we’re here to help!†A couple of college presidents and athletic
directors were more desperate and even less astute than most NFL owners, so Wannstedt
and Robinson have filled the hot-air expectation balloons to the bursting point. Syr-excuse
has been narrowing the scoreboard gap in recent seasons losing by 17, 10 and 3, and was
priming for this with fake effort vs. Northeastern that Wannstedt & Co. might be dumb enough
to think was real, while Pitt was out there proving it could puff its chest out far enough beat
a smaller-than-usual Big Ten defense by a point. PITTSBURGH, 33-20.
*DUKE over VIRGINIA by 7
Al Groh looks like a dead man walking on the sidelines and his offense is just dead – ranking
118th of 119 teams. First game starter Lalich was booted from the team for his Jim
Morrison impersonation so the troubles will continue. Duke can outscore folks under the
direction of super-underrated coach David Cutcliffe and they won’t have to put in quite as
much effort against the toothless Cavs. UVA is just 7-14 in their last 21 ACC road games, with
six of those wins coming in Durham. What is it that they say about payback? DUKE 28-21.
*MIAMI-FL over NORTH CAROLINA by 7
UNC faces a revenge-minded ’Canes club that is showing an intensity that was lacking in
recent years. Second-year boss Randy Shannon noted that his team has “closed the gap†on
the nation’s elite. First-year QB’s Marve and Harris are settling in and the running game will
be effective between the tackles vs. UNC’s defensive speed. Butch Davis’ club gift-wrapped
last week’s game against V-Tech and it might be tough to get off the mat. They’ve relied
heavily on WR Brendan Tate to make plays, but Miami’s defensive team speed can track Tate
unlike the McNeese St. and Rutgers of the world. MIAMI, 24-17.
*LSU over MISSISSIPPI STATE by 20
The Tigers will look to spread their offensive legs at home after surviving slugfest at Auburn
last week. Tigers have mauled the Bulldogs by an aggregate score of 340-81 in their last 8
contests. These Bayou brawlers are not quite as explosive and Croom’s defense will keep
them in it for a few quarters. If the visitors can protect and allow the QB to attack an untested
secondary, this road dog will hunt. Just not so sure that they are up for the challenge after
returning from Atlanta with their tail between their legs. LSU, 31-11
NORTHERN ILLINOIS over *EASTERN MICHIGAN by 3
If the EMUs hadn’t already been blown out by MAC rival Toledo, you could excuse their 40-
and 50-point non-conference blowout losses. But the Toledo game was probably their exposure.
NIU ain’t much, but that two-week bye for Eastern Michigan in November is looking
more and more like a fine time to fire the coach and get a head start on next season. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS, 26-23.
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN over BUFFALO by 4
Dudes named Stewart Sampsel and Tony Paoli goofed their way around the field at quarterback
for Buffalo the last time the teams met, in 2006. Drew Willy has made people forget the
clowns, and RBs Thermilus and Starks should be fresh enough and fit enough to launch
themselves at the CMU matadors, staying on the field long enough to prevent the LeFavourled
offense to do too much of its usual damage. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 30-26.
CINCINNATI over *AKRON by 10
Shoulda figured that the kid behind Cincinnati’s injured QB Dustin (Ugh) Grutza was better
than him, right? Onward we go, and you do not trust Akron’s offense or defense when it
moves up in class, outright win at Syracuse notwithstanding. When teams like Cincinnati plug
in passers and still maintain effectiveness, no need to keep buckin ‘em by using mediocrity
against them. CINCINNATI, 29-19.
PURDUE over *NOTRE DAME by 1
Purdue has a weak enough running game for Notre Dame to be in with a decent chance to
avenge last season’s loss, when Purdue actually ran it 44 times, much of it in the second half
to protect a 23-0 halftime lead. Purdue’s defense can allow Notre Dame QB Clausen to look
a little better than he is. Meanwhile, Purdue QB Curtis Painter’s TD-INT is 3-3, for a kid who
was 29-11 last year. As real games come down the pike, Purdue’s suspect offensive talent
and possibly stale system will be further tested. But with Notre Dame’s D lacking the ability
to get pass pressure on a passing team, Painter can do just enough. PURDUE, 24-23.
*OHIO STATE over MINNESOTA by 16
Despite the offensive snooze festival the Tressels have staged, they know that Minnesota is
stocked with Ohio-area talent they didn’t want in Columbus, for a reason. With the insertion
of Pryor at QB for the prior stiff, the OSU coach appears to be turning up the dimmer switch
for Big Ten season. Young talent from the first two Brewster-raised crops has been enough
to step forward so far for the Golden Gophers amid a rash of injuries. But defensive resistance
will probably be too much for them in this match-up. OHIO STATE, 31-15.
*NEBRASKA over VIRGINIA TECH by 5
The Hokies pulled a Houdini last week in Chapel Hill, but coach Beamer has only so many
tricks up his sleeve. Nebraska’s defensive mentality has done a 180-degree turn since
defensive-minded head coach Bo Pelini hit town. The visitors bring an unbalanced, ineffective
offense to Lincoln that won’t push what is still just an average defense. On offense,
Huskers QB Ganz is starting to get it going and can probably lead a scoring drive on 25% of
their possessions and still get the win. NEBRASKA, 26-21.
*CALIFORNIA over COLORADO STATE by 31
Cal’s offensive balance, and the quality of the players executing it, is probably too good for
Colorado State’s defense to contain for a full game. Or, a full half. Zip!… there goes Jahvid
Best for 60 yards. Zing!… there goes another Riley to ?? completion for 30. Look out, now.
CSU’s front seven won’t know which way is left, right, up, or down and the secondary, where
they’ve been looking for ?? play from a true freshman at corner. With Cal having had two
weeks to simmer about the Maryland trip, CSU’s secondary is probably locked into a multislice
toaster set on high. CALIFORNIA, 51-20.
*GEORGIA over by ALABAMA 3
Bama’s offensive front is a monster and will create some running space against a pretty good
Dawg front four – something that ASU could not do last week (4 rushing yards). That will give
Tide QB J.P. Wilson the chance to hit some well-timed play-action body shots – softening the
home town D. UGA is putting up decent rushing numbers, but they aren’t getting a great line
surge for stud back Moreno. QB Stafford might have to sling it 30+ times to move the ball
against a stellar Nick Saban defensive squad. Likely comes down to the little guys and UGA
has a good one in freshman Blair Walsh. GEORGIA, 24-21.
*AUBURN over TENNESSEE by 3
Backing either team here seems like a suicide mission given their respective offensive maladies.
Alas, somebody has to win and we’ll pencil in the home team whose defense likes to
punch you in the mouth. The Vols’ front seven performed well against Florida and will be
happy to see a far less dynamic offense this week. Auburn smiled when LSU’s hulking o-line
boarded a plane for Baton Rouge and will roll out the red carpet for UT’s struggling big uglies.
AUBURN,15-14.
WISCONSIN over *MICHIGAN by 6
Just like Kenny Loggins 80’s hit, this one has “danger zone†written all over it for the
Badgers. Both squads come off bye weeks, but with every day that passes, Michigan washes
away the transitional dirt and gets more comfy in their new skin. Rich Rod’s offense must
play mistake-free football of they are to spring the upset – something that they haven’t come
close to doing through three games. Wisky’s offensive balance with their TB’s and future
Sunday playing tight end will prove too much in the end. WISCONSIN, 30-24.
*CLEMSON over MARYLAND by 14
Turtles are averaging a hare-like 43 ppg in their last two, but those points were a function of
a perfect setup (Cal) and an overmatched opponent (E. Michigan). Clemson is still looking to
avenge the week one collapse against Bama and should find some redemption here. The
Tiger o-line is still scuffling a bit which keeps us from circling little Bowden. Keep an eye on
the Da’Rell Scott injury situation. The Terps starting tailback was out last week and the
Fridge’s two top runners were a QB and a WR. That may work against lesser athletes, but not
in Death Valley. CLEMSON, 31-17.
FRESNO STATE over *UCLA by 7
Home cupcake could catch the travel weary visitors at a good time. Fresno’s recent itinerary
included an indirect flight to Toledo, a 2OT game, an indirect night flight back home, some
rest/practice/school, and finally a trip this week to Westwood. Luckily for Pat Hill’s crew,
UCLA hasn’t put up over 300 yards in a game this season and struggles to get out of its own
way. Bulldogs have the talent and experience to survive Neuheisel and Chow, but danger
does lurk in the LA shadows and the loss to Wisconsin took the edge off the BCS bowl hopes.
FRESNO STATE, 23-16.
*WYOMING over BOWLING GREEN by 2
Cowboys were ambushed at BYU on Saturday, but the 44-0 score was a bit misleading.
Wyoming held the Cougars under 400 yards of total offense (low on the season) and were
doomed by 6 turnovers (2 returned for TDs). Bottom line – there will be value with this bunch
in the coming weeks. They get BG off their bye week and just prior to opening up conference
play. The Falcons have been grounded by their own turnover woes, committing three in the
fourth quarter in two straight games. This might be a game of whoever holds onto the ball
longer wins. We like the direction in which the home team is moving. WYOMING, 27-25.
OREGON over *WASHINGTON STATE by 17
Fourth-string true freshman QB who expected to be red-shirted this year vs. third-string redshirt
freshman QB learning a new offensive system. Ah, the stuff of Hollywood legend. Injuries
have crushed the QB depth chart on both sides, but Oregon can withstand it better given their
RB duo of Blount and Johnson. Home dog is still a work in progress and don’t have the personnel
to swim with the Ducks. Fourth stringer takes his team onto the Palousse and proceeds
to hand off 40+ times in an ugly conference win. Perhaps Tinsel Town won’t be calling.
OREGON, 30-13.
*OKLAHOMA over TCU by 15
Quirky offenses give Oklahoma’s defense some issues. When a defense has issues, it affects
the offense. TCU can get quirky. A few years ago, they were sneaking in some option every
now and then, but with all the non-effectiveness of how Lou Holtz would sneak in option with
Ron Powlus as his quarterback. But with Andy Dalton behind center, they do it better. TCU will
look to chip away at the Sooners with runs, pitches and short passing gains underneath, and
frustrate them by making first downs by a yard and staying on the field. The world might
expect a Stoops kill based on TCU’s upset of Oklahoma in this ballpark three seasons ago.
Maybe. But lots of water has run under that bridge. OKLAHOMA, 28-13.
*TEXAS A&M over ARMY by 25
28 of the bumbling, stumbling Army players are from the state of Texas. For them -- hapless,
always overlooked and frequently mocked -- this is the road trip that matters most. The
opponent’s offense is still feeling its way, so Army’s underrated defense has a better chance
to keep them in the game if the offense doesn’t give it away – fat chance for the latter, right?
Come on, it’s Army. It’s as if the Federal Government has told them that it is betting big
chunks of the budget deficit against them every Saturday and a high military rank awaits if
they play poorly for the good of their country. TEXAS A&M, 32-7.
*BALL STATE over KENT STATE by 17
Take the number of plays that Ball State QB Nate Davis can make, multiply by the number of
plays that Kent QB Julian Edelman cannot make, and then ask yourself how can Kent State
can get lucky to stay within range. Their Yards Per Attempts are 10.2 vs. 6.4. Ball’s WR Dante
Love, one of the nation’s leading receivers, will be out but Ball State kept pouring it on Indiana
without him after he got seriously hurt in the second quarter last Saturday. Kent’s defense
might have a better idea how to limit Ball without Love, but Kent’s offense is the Nowhere
Men. BALL STATE, 31-14.
SOUTH FLORIDA over *NORTH CAROLINA STATE by 9
Bad offense of NC State vs. decent, albeit overrated defense of South Florida. The roadie Bulls
get turnovers against opponents that make them. NC State was one of the most generous
teams in that department last season, and they’ve given it away twice to South Carolina,
Clemson and East Carolina. Nice schedule, quality opposition. Are they riding an up-curve?
Or does USF’s Jim Leavitt put a lot of focus on this affair since he lost to NC State in a bowl
game a couple of years ago? SOUTH FLORIDA, 22-13.
*FLORIDA STATE over COLORADO by 7 (at Jacksonville, FL)
FSU found themselves, only to lose themselves in a seven-turnover performance at home.
That won’t happen again, but the o-line problems up front won’t correct overnight. CU does
not have nearly the experience or the knowledge base of Wake, which will play to the Noles
favor. Buffs coach Dan Hawkins will rely on a young offense to put up points in their first road
game. Goings will be tough against a salty defense that now thinks it must hold opponents
to single digits. FLORIDA STATE, 20-13.
CENTRAL FLORIDA over *UTEP by 7
UTEP is a passing team going up against a decent pass defense. The home team hasn’t really
demonstrated an ability to stop anything that moves at any speed – slow, medium or high.
The Miners are still transitioning to a 3-3-5 defense, not the best defense to play against a
rush-based offense. CENTRAL FLORIDA, 27-20.
*PENN STATE over ILLINOS by 16
As we expected (see Zone Blitz), PSU has been a good play to date – going 3-0 ATS. The
offense has been lethal – using 6-7 playmakers each game to gobble up chunks of yards.
Illinois is currently ranked 10th in the Big 10 in rush defense due to suspect linebacker play
and limited secondary support. If the back seven moves up to support the run, Lion QB Clark
has a bevy of speedsters at his disposal in the passing game. Look for the Penn State defensive
line to drink plenty of Juice come Saturday, as they force the dynamic signal caller into
bad down and distance situations. PENN STATE, 34-16.
*NEW MEXICO STATE over NEW MEXICO by 1
For head Lobo Rocky Long there is one way to victory – power run and play defense. They
should be able to get physical against a smaller WAC opponent. NMSU will take the opposite
approach and chuck it around the field against New Mexico’s 3-2-6 defense. QB Holbrook hit
for 473 yards and 4 TD’s last year and has a comfort level against this unique defensive
scheme. The battle of I-25 will come down to who can extend drives with third down conversions
and the home team is better equipped to do it. NEW MEXICO STATE, 29-26.
*SAN DIEGO STATE over IDAHO by 12
At 0-3, Chuck Long’s Aztecs needed a bye like their alum base needs a win. SDSU’s strength
is their passing attack – too bad Long tried to rewind time and Oklahoma power run in a 35-
10 loss at San Jose State. He’ll get back to the strength this week against at team that he
can actually match up against. Idaho’s paper towel defense ain’t Brawny – it’s more like the
38 cent “value†stuff which is actually no value. SAN DIEGO STATE, 37-25.
SAN JOSE STATE over *HAWAII by 2
The recent Warriors were used to putting up 300 yards in a half. This edition averages under
3 bills in total offense per game. The personnel loss and coaching transition is taking its toll,
but at least this game is on the island. Spartan coach Dick Tomey is getting nice play from
Cal transfer QB Kyle Reed, who should be able to weather the hostile environment and keep
his team on track. Better players, betting coaching, better team. Not that he has been good,
but starting Hawaii QB Graunke has a hand injury that may not be healed by Saturday. SAN
JOSE STATE, 23-21.
ARKANSAS STATE over *MEMPHIS by 1
Arkansas State QB Cory Leonard is riding a 10-1 TD-INT season so far, threw three TDs and
no picks against Memphis last season, and his team is looking ahead to a bye while Memphis
has C-USA foe UAB on deck next week. Memphis QB Arkelon Hall has yet to prove he can
run Memphis’ offense as well as Martin Hankins did, and Memphis’ running game has looked
good only once – against a Nicholls State team playing its first game just last week.
ARKANSAS STATE, 24-23.
*TOLEDO over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL by 22
If Toledo’s defense left the field, FIU’s offense would need three plays to punch it across the
goal line. It’s early in the season, so let’s not expect a multi-overtime game against Fresno,
which they lost, to take any starch out of the Toledos, who happen to be 1-2 and home. They
cannot wait to get back out there. Expecting them to be tired and let down would be contrary
to all that is competitive sports. TOLEDO, 35-13.
*KANSAS STATE over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 24
Lafalots got their targeted home win vs. Kent, now hit the power-conference road where they
have a little bit of confidence after hanging with Illinois a few weeks ago. Can’t believe Ron
Zook had his Illini fully prepared for ULL. Gotta believe that Ron Prince, with the hottest seat
in Manhattan, KS, coming off a nationally televised defeat, will have his home side primed to
kill on the class drop. KANSAS STATE, 38-14.
*RICE over NORTH TEXAS by 15
Two fire-drill offenses, but North Texas’ kids are still falling down the stairs while attempting
to execute the drill. As stated time and again on these pages, Rice’s defense has a way of
allowing yards, then stepping in front of opposing passes for the big pick. In North Texas’
case, the big pick against them often seems like part of the basic game plan. RICE, 48-33.
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
FLORIDA ATLANTIC over *MIDDLE TENNEESSE by 5
This Sun Belt opener for FAU was, naturally, the game that Howard Schnellenberger was
pointing to when FAU lost 37-3 at Minnesota at the ridiculously low spread of +7 last week,
as you all were warned would happen. The Sun Belt opener is usually the best time to bet on
Schnellenberger, coming off the stiff-job money-runs on the non-conference road. You know
that Middle Tennessee was trying against Maryland and Kentucky. Neither of these sides is
inspiring as far as their ability to cover spreads from here on out but if someone is destined
to covers this affair and if someone is undervalued for this one particular game, it’s probably
the visitor. FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 28-23.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1
*BOISE STATE over LOUISIANA TECH by 16
Louisiana Tech’s defense must be respected. But the not-ready-for-prime-time offense
makes wagering on them just a little too stressful. If the so-so QB makes one lame-armed
mistake on the smurf turf, they lose any and all momentum that Boise often turns early and
keeps until it’s too late to matter for the other side. BOISE STATE, 29-13.
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 10:59pm -
0 likes
SPORTS REPORTER - NFL
(SBB 1-0) (BB 5-3) (REC 0-4)
BEST BET
*CAROLINA over ATLANTA by 21
What goes up, must come down. Not interested in trying to catch the dirty Birds as they
come off a lopsided win against a Chiefs team that has now lost 12 in a row. Anybody in
the NFL coulda done that. Heck, Atlanta opened by beating the sorry 0-3 Lions -- who
had one of the worst second-half ’07 records in the NFL -- then immediately went down
the drain vs. division rival Tampa Bay seven days later, a Tampa Bay team that was coming
off a loss, as Carolina is. Young teams like Atlanta tend to be very volatile, what some
would call “unpredictable.†So, in our ongoing attempt to predict the unpredictable, you
simply get in tune with the zig-zagging and go with the flow, the flow in this case being
the opposite of last weekend. Your run-of-the-mill ATS logger will be waving Carolina’s
8-16-2 ATS record as a home favorite since 2004, and taking up the cause of the Atlanta
team. Fine. Note that each of Atlanta’s wins came against opponents having mucho problems
running the ball on offense. Kansas City and Detroit were rushing for 73 and 68
yards per game heading into last Sunday. The Chiefs then got 186 rushing yards at
Atlanta, yet lost by 24 points. So, they are just bad all over. The Lions got 116 rushing
yards at San Francisco, yet lost by 18 points. Ditto. Bad all over. The Panthers got only 47
rushing yards losing at Minnesota. Not unusual, because nobody runs well vs. the
Vikings. Everything evens out, and dropping in class to Atlanta’s front seven is the first
step to Carolina’s frequently good running game getting back on track. It doesn’t hurt that
they actually lost the second game of the season series to the Falcons last year. Raise
that focus. Rip that division rival. CAROLINA, 34-13.
BEST BET
MINNESOTA over *TENNESSEE by 8
The Titans have taken advantage of poor starts around their division and a strong running
game to race out to a 3-0 start. The mental and emotional collapse of Yince Young
has failed to derail Tennessee’s clubhouse. However, all good things must come to an
end. Tennessee’s lack of a NFL-caliber wide receiver will allow the Vikings’ defense to
concentrate on their specialty: shutting down the opposing running game. The Titans
finally play against an elite level defense and their offense will not prove up to the task,
as the statuesque Kerry Collins devolves into his old habit of sacks and turnovers. Jared
Allen, in particular, should cause some havoc given Collins’ immobility. This being a nonconference
game, the team with less to lose is more likely to play that way. Despite last
week’s win, the Vikings must continue to play with an urgency belying their circumstances;
after all, the coach ditched his three-year love affair with Tarvaris Jackson in an
effort to save his own job. This team is built to win now. Tennessee is undefeated but has
played a soft schedule. A road game against Baltimore next week is followed by their
bye. Doesn’t 4-1 heading into the bye week sound nice? MINNESOTA 21-13.
BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over *CHICAGO by 14
Quick review: Philadelphia was last week’s 5-Star Premier Players winner vs. Pittsburgh.
Last year’s meeting, won 16-13 by the Bears in Philadelphia, came at a time when the
Eagles were having red-zone issues, having scored 16 points or less in five of their first
six games, including that visit from Chicago, whose QB that afternoon was Brian Griese.
The since discarded veteran did a good job moving the Bears’ offense before they, too,
stalled in the red zone. Neither side turned the ball over. In this re-hook, Kyle Orton will
attempt to do what Griese did for the Bears a year ago. But if the Eagles, a faster team
in ’08 on all three sides of the ball (special teams being the third side), can dent the end
zone more frequently against the possibly Hester-less Chicagos, then Orton will need to
do more than Griese did against this very aggressive visiting defense. The thought of
Orton needing to do more than usual is kind of silly. Orton not screwing it up, plus superior
special teams plays and turnovers acquired, can equal money for Chicago players.
Orton, without the special teams magic, playing from behind against a competent offense
that doesn’t turn the ball over, while matched against a good defense? Not the same
thing. Where was Donovan McNabb born and where did he attend high school? Oh,
Chicago, IL, eh? What a coincidence. That’s where they’re playing this game, where the
Eagles are 4-0 SU since he started playing for them and they’ve been chowing down on
the chunky beef soup and other stuff that McNabb’s mom cooks for them on Saturday
night. The key running back Westbrook might be out for Philly. He’s been out before. Like
in that 31-9 win at Green Bay two years ago? They have other guys, you know.
PHILADELPHIA, 23-9
RECOMMENDED
HOUSTON over *JACKSONVILLE by 2
Houston’s season has gotten off to a tumultuous start, as they’ve received consecutive
smackdowns from Pittsburgh and Tennessee sandwiched around a forced bye week that
saw a hurricane flatten their city. Our preseason sleeper hasn’t looked anywhere near
where they should be, but a return to normalcy should help the Texans get back on track.
Gary Kubiak’s bunch travels to face a Jacksonville team that they have consistently
played tough during his tenure; after notching their first win with a last second victory
over Indianapolis, the Jaguars are primed to have a letdown game and may underestimate
an 0-2 Houston squad prior to their Week 5 nationally televised game against the
Steelers. Kubiak has done okay against the Jaguars in his tenure, with a 2-2 ATS & SU
record, so he won’t be seeing anything new. But this time the Texans have a solid running
threat in rookie RB Steve Slaton, who displayed good strength and quickness in
gaining 116 yards last week. He should experience success against a Jacksonville
defensive front seven that has been weakened through injury and off-season turnover. A
strong running game will also give Matt Schaub more room to throw, finding stud WR
Andre Johnson, who will be looking for redemption after a drop-filled affair last week.
Look for Houston to notch their first win of the season against a familiar foe ripe for taking.
HOUSTON 24-22.
RECOMMENDED TOTAL
OVER 51
*NEW ORLEANS over SAN FRANCISCO by 3
Now, here are two teams that love to attack on offense. Mike Martz’s system has yielded
quick dividends for the 49ers and should continue this week against a Saints defense
that hasn’t made a key stop since Jim Mora was the coach. One of the more surprising
early season success stories is J.T. O’Sullivan, who has demonstrated skills reminiscent
of Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger in piloting the Martz offense to a 2-1 record. Of course,
that’s been over three games against shoddy defenses, but O’Sullivan should once again
experience success against a team that couldn’t stop Jeff Garcia, Jason Campbell or Jay
Cutler – add another J to the list. Frank Gore will grind and bash his way through a run
defense that has allowed over 100 rushing yards in every game this year. San Francisco
was embarrassed at home by the Saints last season and will travel to the Bayou with a
chip on their shoulder. The Saints are again struggling to meet preseason expectations,
but a 1-2 record is not fatal in the NFC South. Drew Brees has shouldered the load in the
early going and will do so again this week against a 49ers secondary that lacks depth.
Look for the Saints to barely hold off a surging 49ers in more back-and-forth action. NEW
ORLEANS 33-30.
DENVER over *KANSAS CITY by 14
The eyes often lie when it comes to football truths, but it’s beginning to look a lot like Kansas
City truly is as bad as they look. Whatever positive attributes this team may possess are
instantly negated by their rotating group of stiffs at QB.Would you like a healthy dose of Tyler
Thigpen, with a splash of Damon Huard in relief? Say no thank you and take a pass. The
Denver Broncos offense has lit up opponents to start the season, and while they may not be
as good as they’ve looked early on, they won’t have problems making some more true
believers out of the public with the spanking they will deliver to their division foes. The Chiefs’
porous run defense, which has given up both yards and scores galore, will make Selvin Young
look like a superstar while Jay Cutler continues his ascent to elite QB status against an aged
and overmatched secondary. The long-term ramifications of this game will be to make
Denver a potentially overrated commodity heading into a three-week stretch against some
legitimate defenses: Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and New England. Or are Cutler and Brandon
Marshall an unbeatable combination? They just might seem like it today. DENVER 31-17.
*CINCINNATI over CLEVELAND by 9
As poorly as both teams played in the season’s first two weeks, the Bengals at least displayed
some talent (and pride) in a losing cause last week. However, moral victories don’t
earn much in the NFL and Marvin Lewis has to be feeling the pressure to perform after being
constantly undermined by both his owner and players. Romeo Crennel is on the eve of dead
duck status in Cleveland, as is GM Phil Savage, after off-season personnel decisions have
backfired and blanketed the Browns locker room with a lazy sense of complacency and
incompetence. Crennel’s on-field presence is nearly non-existent and his passivity in play
calling has handicapped his team almost as much as his players’ poor performance. He has
also been unable to achieve much success against Cincinnati, posting a poor 2-4 ATS, 1-5
SU record against Marvin Lewis’ squad. Will Derek Anderson’s continued poor performance
increase the call for Brady Quinn? At least he won’t hear so many boos playing in Cincy.
Neither team’s defense does a good job covering receivers or stopping the run, but conversely
neither team has been able to achieve much consistency on offense. At least Carson
Palmer displayed some semblance of his past form when his offensive line bothered to pass
protect against the Giants; Palmer should find more time to throw against a Browns defense
that hasn’t pressured the opposing QB all season. While the struggles of both teams tempers
expectations for a shoot-out on the level of last season’s 96-point melee in Cleveland, the
Bengals should be able to get their offense on more consistent footing against such a weak
defense. CINCINNATI 26-17.
ARIZONA over *NY JETS by 1
Generation Jets has a problem here: The Whisenhunt coaching staff knows who they are,
knows where they’ve been, and is planning to take advantage of all that. Arizona is 5-0 ATS
vs. AFC opponents since this coaching staff took the reins. The coaching staff’s roots are in
Pittsburgh. Notice how Pittsburgh had owned the Jets until last year’s loss, when Whisenhunt
and Grimm were no longer in Pittsburgh? The Jets are coming off a short week and a long
flight West to East after the Monday Night game in San Diego. Tuesday is pretty much a wasted
day for the Jets, which would have negated Arizona making a second straight West to East
trip after the Cardinals played in Washington last Sunday. But given the situation, the Arizona
braintrust has decided to make a very interesting non-move and force the Manginis to sweat
a little more: The Cardinals are staying in Washington this week, avoiding the wasted air travel
They will use the hours gained, off a loss, to take full aim at the Jetsons! Nice, nice, very
nice. As long as they stay out of jail during the extended road stay, the Cardinals will show
up with those big receivers, vs. those little Jets corners, and some nice leverage for maintaining
their NFL-leading YAC-yardage and making the home fans very nervous. The Jets got
an ex-Cardinals’ linebacker in the off-season, but they may need more than that for comfort.
ARIZONA, 27-26.
GREEN BAY over *TAMPA BAY by 1
The kid, Aaron Rodgers, has been pretty against the Cover-2 defenses of Detroit and
Minnesota, and will try his skill against the Bucs’ defense the other two were styled after. A
good rapport with an impressively deep Packers wide receiver corps has been maintained
with Rodgers ability to throw on the run against four-man pass rushes. Can Brian Griese pull
a similar trick with the Buccaneers? Chucking the ball 67 times in a game will inflate your
stats, but that’s not going to happen every week. As satisfying as Tampa’s comeback victory
over Chicago might have been, that was also Griese’s own personal revenge game after
being discarded by the Bears in the offseason. Griese had practiced against Chicago’s Cover-
2. Green Bay plays tighter man coverage, and the Packers usually have stout run defense,
capable of shutting down what has been an unproductive Tampa running game. Griese is not
a QB you want to rely on to win games for you on a week-to-week basis. He is barely a game
manager and last week was probably the highlight of his season. GREEN BAY 21-20.
BUFFALO over *ST. LOUIS by 11
Perhaps the Rams are as bad as everyone thinks they are. Sometimes, certainly in the minority
of instances, the public is right. The Rams were two-score underdogs to a division rival
last Sunday, and lost contact early. Now, they are a home underdog to a team unaccustomed
to being a road favorite. The Bills are 0-4 ATS laying points away from home since 2004. But
you can’t hold Buffalo’s past history against them in this spot. Sure, a non-conference road
game is the least important on the schedule. But the 3-0 SU Bills got their scare on their
home field last Sunday in the squeaker vs. Oakland. The Rams have very little to hold onto
right now. Buffalo’s defensive coordinator Perry Fewell came directly from St. Louis. Since
their departed offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild had come directly from St. Louis as well,
since-promoted OC Turk Schonert, the QB coach under Fairchild, is not going in blind here,
especially since the Rams are pretty transparent to begin with. Late owner Georgia Frontiere
died over the winter, Sonny Boy Rosenbloom wants to sell, take the money and run, and few
owners on the outs can motivate well-paid players who don’t know where the franchise is
headed. BUFFALO, 28-17.
SAN DIEGO over *OAKLAND by 10
The Chargers are coming off a short week of rest after a Monday night appearance and travel
to the Black Hole of Raider Nation. It’s a long-standing tradition that formers Raiders
employees love sticking it to Al Davis – just something about that guy – and Norv Turner is
no different. San Diego won and covered both games against the Raiders in Norv’s first season
with San Diego. It’s probably safe to assume that he still holds a grudge and likes to win
football games. The bickering between Davis and head coach Lane Kiffin has settled into a
dull roar, but the Raiders have managed to put together two strong efforts after their opening
night debacle. If Kiffin stays true to form and runs the ball as often as he can, the Raiders
may be able to put up some points against a weakened Chargers run defense. Darren
McFadden and Michael Bush form an effective young running back tandem and could do
wonders in taking some of the pressure of the erratic JaMarcus Russell. It’s unfortunate that
the management situation has deteriorated to the level that it has, because the Raiders do
have talent. But how can an offensive coaching staff develop and teach their players with
such uncertainty hanging over their heads? These are the things that torpedo seasons and
it’s unfortunate that Oakland has been stuck in this position for so long. SAN DIEGO 27-17.
*DALLAS over WASHINGTON by 14
Gotta love that on Sunday Night in Green Bay, the Cowboys were not fazed by the short week
or the NFC East sandwich. The easy Midweek Update Best Bet winner on Dallas –3 at Green
Bay flew in the face of conventional “handicapping,†because there are no handicappers
here. Just a bunch of forecasters who figure out what’s going to happen instead of basing
picks on what has happened in the past to other teams. Anyway, teams that overcome traditional
traps overcome them because they have superior talent to play four quarters of highlevel
football. Keep that in mind if your first instinct is to like the Redskins and the points.
Redskins’ ballyhooed DE Jason Taylor? He’ll be following the lead of Dallas’ offensive lineman
across from him and voted off the stage. DALLAS, 31-17.
MONDAY NIGHT, SEPTEMBER 29
*PITTSBURGH over BALTIMORE by 11
If you know anyone else with the nerve and confidence to have made the Baltimore Ravens,
3-13 ATS last season, a Best Bet vs. the pointspread in each of their first two games this season…
well, you don’t know anyone else, so let’s forget that notion. You’d have to have known
someone else who over the summer wrote a book called How to Beat the Pro Football
Pointspread (coming out soon, October they say), and nobody else did. At 2-0 with that “buy
low†strategy, let’s forget about making a third consecutive big push on Baltimore, because
that had already been done anyway. They would have beaten Houston in Week 2 except for
Hurricane Ike, but that opportunity will come again in November. This has been stated before,
in the forecasts for each win and in the forecast of the postponed game: “You do not want
the Ravens against a good defense.†Pittsburgh? Good defense. Flacco Joe, whaddya know?
Not enough to warrant green light against blitzes of Dick LeBeau. PITTSBURGH, 21-10.
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2008 11:00pm -
0 likes
The Gold Sheet Extra
VOLUME 27 SEPTEMBER 25-29, 2008 NO. 5
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA!!!
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
TULANE
One of the most important elements of handicapping is to be on top
of emerging teams and trends, and try to capitalize upon any
extended pointspread win or losing streaks before it gets too late.
Such is the case with surging Tulane, one of the early-season
surprise teams and ready to continue its upswing Thursday night
when hosting SMU at the Superdome. HC Bob Toledo’s Green Wave
has covered its first three out of the chute in 2008, extending its
pointspread run to 5-1 its last 6 on the board since late 2007.
Meanwhile, the Mustangs continue to struggle, dropping 2 of their
first 3 vs. the line and now 11 of their last 16 dating to late ‘06.
DUKE
One of the most-pronounced team trends in recent years has been
Virginia’s ongoing failures on the road. The Cavaliers stand a poor 9-
24 vs. the number their last 33 as a visitor for HC Al Groh, and a mere
4-13 vs. the points their last 17 as a visiting dog. And please note
how poorly the Cavs have fared lately, reflected in their lowly -24.75
“AFS†(“Away from Spreadâ€) number their past two on the board.
All of that could mean bad news for UVa when it travels to Durham for
a Saturday date vs. revived Duke. The Blue Devils have been one of
those early streakers in 2008, covering their first 2 on the board, and
are a featured Rested Home Winner recommendation this week.
VIRGINIA TECH
Virginia Tech has been providing such good pointspread value
on the road for so long that it almost seems like the Hokies should
be an automatic recommendation whenever that situation arises.
Which it does again this Saturday at Nebraska. Tech is simply
one of the best road performers in the land, reflected in its 16-3
spread mark its last 19 as a true visitor, and has posted quite an
underdog mark as well, standing 11-2 vs. the points its last 13 as
the “short.†The Hokies are a featured recommendation in a
number of systems this week, including Coach & Pointspread &
College Coach as Underdog with HC Frank Beamer, as well as a
Power Underdog play.
FRESNO STATE
As mentioned in the Tulane writeup, it’s important to keep on top of
pointspread developments as they are happening, and try to catch
extended winning or losing spread streaks in their earliest stages.
One of those barometers we use to measure a team’s current form is
the “AFS†(“Away from Spreadâ€) calculation. And over the last two
weeks, there hasn’t been a worse “AFS†team in the country than
UCLA, a whopping -34.00 in that span. Needless to say, the Bruins
didn’t cover either of those games, which is another good reason
we’re going to recommend visiting Fresno State for their Saturday tilt
at the Rose Bowl.
SAN JOSE STATE
That was a tough loss San Jose State endured last week at
Stanford, but indicators are still pointing up for the Spartans...and
they’re not for Hawaii, which hosts Dick Tomey’s troops Saturday
night in Honolulu. The Warriors have fallen off the map in the early
going, crushed in their first two pointspread decisions, reflected in a
poor -17.50 “AFS†(“Away from Spreadâ€) mark. UH is also just 4-9 vs.
the line its last 13 on the board, while SJSU has covered 8 of its last
vs. the number.
NFL RELEASE
SAN FRAN.-N.ORL. “OVERâ€
It’s not hard to recognize New Orleans’ recent “totals†pattern, one
of the most-pronounced in the league. Simply, it’s “over†time when
the Saints take the field these days, and expect more of the same for
Sunday’s home encounter vs. San Francisco. The Saints are "over"
in their first three this season and 16 of their last 22, as well as 8 of
their last 11 at the Superdome.
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the "tech edge"
COLLEGE
SMU at TULANE (Thursday, September 25)...Road team has
won and covered last 3 meetings, including exciting Wave win LY at
Dallas in OT. Tulane has not been DD chalk since ’03 vs. Army, but
Bob Toledo 2-0 vs. line TY, 4-1 last 5 on board. Tech edge-Tulane,
based on recent trends.
SOUTHERN CAL at OREGON STATE (Thursday, September
25)...Trojans have had their problems this decade at Corvallis, losing
2 of 3 trips SU and failing to cover any of those, including pointpsread
losses by powerful ’04 & ’06 teams (losing SU in ’06 by 33-31 count).
Riley 7-2 vs. line last 9 at home, though Beavs just 1-3 as home dog
since ’05 (win coming vs. SC in ’06). Tech edge-slight to OSU,
based on series home trends.
UCONN at LOUISVILLE (Friday, September 26)...Edsall not quite
as tough on road as at home in recent years (6-10 vs. line away, 14-
4 vs. spread at home since ’05). Tech edge-UL, based on UConn
home/road pattern.
NAVY at WAKE FOREST...Mids no covers first 2 away TY and now
just 2-5 vs. line last 7 as visitor. Grobe covered 5 of 7 as favorite LY
and also established home field edge at Winston-Salem (5-1 vs.
spread as host LY). Tech edge-slight to Wake, based on recent
trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at TEMPLE...Owlies now 15-9 last 24 on
board since mid ’06 for Al Golden. Owls 8-3 vs. line at Linc for Golden,
and Temple 2-1 in rare chalk role for Golden. Broncos only 4-9-1 vs.
line since LY. Tech edge-Temple, based on recent trends.
MARSHALL at WEST VIRGINIA...Herd 1-2 vs .line TY and now 5-
19-1 vs. line last 24 away from Huntington. WVU only 5-5-1 as DD
chalk at Morgantown the past two years and has dropped last 2 on
board TY.. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on extended Herd
road woes.
PITT at SYRACUSE...Robinson on 0-6 spread run since late LY
and just 4-15 last 19 vs. number. Robinson also no covers last 7 as
Carrier Dome dog. Tech edge-Pitt, based on Robinson negatives.
MICHIGAN STATE at INDIANA...Home team has won and covered
last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series. Hoosiers 5-2 vs. line last 7 as Big Ten
host. Tech edge-slight to Indiana, absed on series home trends.
NORTHWESTERN at IOWA...Underdog team has won SU last 3
meetings. Ferentz 4-11 as chalk since ’06, 9-18-1 vs. line last 28
overall on board. Tech edge-NU, based on series and team trends.
VIRGINIA at DUKE...Al Groh now 9-24 vs. line last 33 as visitor, 4-
13 last 17 as visiting dog Tech edge-Duke, based on team trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Heels have covered 3 of
4 (2-2 SU) since Canes joined ACC in ’04. Canes only 2-5 vs. line at
home for Shannon LY and 12-25 vs. spread last 37 as host. Tech
edge-slight to UNC, based on team trends.
OLE MISS at FLORIDA...Rebs have covered 2 of first 3 for Houston
Nutt, and remember that Ole Miss still fared well as dog for Orgeron
(10-7 last 2 years; Rebs now 11-7 as dog since ’06). Urban Meyer has
covered last 7 reg.-season games, however, and is now 7-1 vs. line
at Swamp since LY. Tech edge-slight to Florida, based on team
trends.
MISSISSIPPI STATE at LSU...LSU has really brutalized MSU over
the years, winning last 8 SU by hefty DD margins, covering 10 of last
11 and 14 of last 16 in series. Les Miles, however, only 2-8-1 vs. line
last 10 reg.-season games, and Sly Croom 7-3-1 vs. number last 10
as visitor. Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on series trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Road team has
covered last 7 meetings! EMU only 4-11 vs. line last 15 on board, and
Eagles just 3-8 vs. line last 11 at Rynearson Stadium. Tech edge-
NIU, based on series and team trends.
BUFFALO at CENTRAL MICHIGAN..Chips are 10-2-2 vs. line at
Mt. Pleasant since ’05, although they surprisingly haven’t covered 5
of last 6 reg.-season games. Turner Gill 5-1 vs. line last 6 as dog.
Tech edge-slight to CMU, based on team trends.
CINCINNATI at AKRON...Cincy 17-8-1 vs. line since ’06, and Brian
Kelly teams 26-9-3 vs. line since ’05. Kelly teams also 15-6 vs. line
as chalk that span. Zips tough as Rubber Bowl dog, however,
covering all 4 chances in role since ’05. Tech edge-slight to Cincy,
based on extended team trends.
HOUSTON at EAST CAROLINA...ECU won a wild one at UH LY
and has covered 5 of 6 meetings since ’00. Skip 7-3 as home chalk
since arriving at ECU in ’05. Cougs no covers last 8 on board since
late LY. Tech edge-ECU, based on team trends.
PURDUE at NOTRE DAME...Note that road team has covered last
4 meetings. Weis only 10-20-1 vs. line last 31 on board overall.
Tiller’s recent visitor mark (7-3-1 vs. line since ’06) a lot better than his
home mark lately. Tech edge-Purdue, based on team trends.
MINNESOTA at OHIO STATE...Tressel has dominated Gophers
and has covered 4 of last 5 in series. Buckeyes 13-8 as DD home
chalk since ’05. Tech edge-Ohio State, based on team and
extended series trends.
VIRGINIA TECH at NEBRASKA...Beamer 15-3 vs. line last 18 as
true visitor, and 10-2 as dog since 2001. Tech edge-Beamer, based
on extended trends.
STANFORD at WASHINGTON...Ugh! Road team 3-0-1 vs. line last
4 meetings. Harbaugh only 5-8 as dog as Tree HC. Ty only 3-6 as
chalk at U-Dub and 8-13 vs. spread as host since taking over in ’05
(1-5 as home chalk that span). Tech edge-slight to Tree, based on
series and team trends.
COLORADO STATE at CAL...Rams actually covered meeting at
Fort Collins LY, and were 3-2 for Lubick as visiting dog LY. Tedford
only 3-13-1 vs. line as DD chalk since ’05. Tech edge-slight to CSU,
based on extended Cal DD chalk woes.
ALABAMA at GEORGIA...Georgia has covered 4 of last 5 between
the hedges since mid ’07 and is 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board. Tech
edge-slight to Georgia, based on team trends.
TENNESSEE at AUBURN...Fulmer 5-4-1 as dog since ’06 and 13-
7-1 as dog since ’03. Tuberville only 6-13 vs. line last 19 as chalk, 4-
8 vs. spread last 12 at Jordan-Hare. Tech edge-slight to UT, based
on team trends.
WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN...Badgers now 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 in
series. Badgers 9-5 vs. line at Camp Randall under Bielema. Tech
edge-Wisconsin, based on series and recent team trends. MARYLAND
at CLEMSON...Road team has covered last 4 and 5 of last 6
in series, but Ralph only 4-8 vs. line as visitor since ’06. Tommy
Bowden now on 5-game pointspread slide since late LY. Terps 6-2
vs. line last 8 in series. Tech edge-Maryland, based on series and
recent team trends.
FRESNO STATE at UCLA...If getting points, note Pat Hill 5-1 as
dog away from Fresno since LY. Throw out bad ’06 and Pat Hill 21-
10 last 31 as dog. Bruins 17-5 vs. line at Rose Bowl since late ’04 but
no covers last 2 in '08 Tech edge-Fresno, especially if dog, based
on team trends.
BOWLING GREEN at WYOMING...Wyo on 0-10-1 spread run last
11 on board and 2-15-1 last 18 against number. BGSU has covered
first two on road TY and is 6-1 vs. line last 7 reg.-season games since
late ’07. Pokes also 1-7-1 last 9 at Laramie. Tech edge-BGSU,
based on recent trends.
OREGON at WASHINGTON STATE...Ducks 4-6 as visiting chalk
since ’06, but Bellotti 35-20 vs. line last 55 on board. Cougs 0-3 vs.
line under Wulff. Tech edge-Oregon, based on recent trends.
TCU at OKLAHOMA...Frogs have been better at home vs. line than
on road in recent years, but note TCU 7-2 as DD dog since ’98 (1-0 since
’05, that being ’05 opener vs. Sooners). Stoops 10-3-1 as Norman chalk
since ’06. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on team trends.
UAB at SOUTH CAROLINA...UAB now 2-7 vs. spread last 9 on
board. Spurrier 15-8-1 vs. line last 24 on board, 9-4 last 13 as chalk.
Also 6-3 as DD chalk since taking over Gamecocks since ’05. Tech
edge-SC, based on UAB woes.
ARMY at TEXAS A&M...Army 7-18 vs. line last 25 on board, 4-9 last
13 as visitor. Stan Brock no covers last 4 away from home. Tech
edge-slight to A&M, based on recent Army woes.
KENT STATE at BALL STATE...Ball State 17-8 vs. line since ’06,
9-3 vs. line as chalk since ’06. Golden Flashes only 1-7 last 8 as dog
(0-2 TY) and 2-13 last 15 overall on board. Tech edge-Ball State,
based on team trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at NC STATE...Bulls only 2-6 vs. line last 8 as
visiting chalk. Not much home edge lately for Wolfpack, however, just
2-4 vs. line at Raleigh for O’Brien LY, and a solid 33% previously as
host (4-8 since ’06, 6-12 since ’05). Tech edge-slight to USF, based
on NCS negatives.
COLORADO vs. FLORIDA STATE (at Jacksonville)...Hawkins
only 5-10-1 as “short†since taking over Buffs in ’06. Tech edgeslight
to FSU, based on extended CU dog marks.
UCF at UTEP...If UCF a dog note 1-9 mark vs. line as visiting dog
since ’03. UTEP no covers first 2 TY (both as dog) but if Miners a dog,
note Price 13-7-1 last 21 as short. Tech edge-UTEP, based on team
trends.
ILLINOIS at PENN STATE...Zook has covered the last 2 vs.
Shades and beat him SU at Champaign-Urbana LY. Shades 11-6 as
home chalk since ’05, however. Zook 4-1 vs. line as true visitor LY
and 6-2 as DD dog since ’06. Tech edge-slight to Zook, based on
team trends.
NEW MEXICO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Road team had covered
4 straight in series until Lobos won and covered at Albuquerque LY.
Rocky was 0-2 as road chalk LY, and NMSU 6-3-1 vs. line last 10 at
home. Tech edge-NMSU, based on team trends. .
IDAHO at SAN DIEGO STATE...Vandals 0-5 last 5, 1-10 last 11 on
board since early ’07. Tech edge-slight to SDSU, based on team
trends.
NEVADA at UNLV...Fremont Cannon! Home team has covered 5
of last 6 in series, although Wolf Pack rolled 31-3 in last trip to Vegas
in ’06, and Pack has won and covered last 3 meetings. Tech edgeslight
to Nevada, based on recent series trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at HAWAII...Leahey has won last 7 in series,
although Dick Tomey has covered last 5 and 8 of last 9 on board since
early ’07. UH just 4-9 vs. line last 13 on board. Tech edge-SJSU,
based on recent UH woes.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at KENTUCKY...UK just 2-6 vs. line last 8
on board since late LY, no covers last 3 as home chalk. Tech edgeslight
to WKU, based on recent trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at MEMPHIS...Underdog team has covered
last 3 meetings. If Memphis chalk note 3-7 spread mark at Liberty
Bowl in role since ’05, and Tommy West just 5-10 vs. line last 15 as
chalk overall. If ASU a dog, note 8-4 mark on road in role since ’06.
Tech edge-Arkansas State, if dog, based on team trends.
TROY at OKLAHOMA STATE...Revenge for OSU after getting
whipped at Troy 41-23 LY. Trojans, however, solid 8-3 as dog since
’06 and 12-4 vs. spread away from home that span. Cowboys have
covered their last 6 as DD chalk, however. Tech edge-slight to Troy,
based on extended trends.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at TOLEDO...Amstutz just 2-6 as DD
chalk since ’06, but is 6-1 vs. line hosting non-conference opposition
since taking over in ’01. Tech edge-slight to Toledo, based on team
trends.
LOUISIANA at KANSAS STATE...Cajuns now 5-2 last 7 as DD road
dog after combative cover at Illinois. KSU now 1-5 vs. line last 6 on
board (only cover against North Texas), although Ron Prince is 7-1 vs.
line as home chalk since ’06 (4-0 laying DDs since ’06 at home). Tech
edge-slight to KSU, based on team trends.
NORTH TEXAS at RICE...UNT 2-17 vs. line last 19 away from Denton
vs non-Belt foes. Tech edge-Rice, based on UNT negatives.
NFL
DENVER at KANSAS CITY...Broncos dominated LY, winning and
covering both by hefty 68-18 combined score. Although Broncos had
failed to win previous 4 or cover previous 3 at Arrowhead. “Overs†10-
3 last 13 meetings. Chiefs just 1-7-1 vs. line themselves their last 9
at Arrowhead. Tech edge-Broncos and “over,†based on recent
team and series “totals†trends.
CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI...Bengals “under†7-2 last 9 on
board, Brownies “under†last 9 on board since late LY. Tech edge-
“Under,†based on “totals†trends.
HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE...Texans have done well in this
series, covering 9 of 12 all-time vs. Jags (3-1 vs. line the last 2 years,
loss came at Alltel LY). Texans “over†15-7-1 previous 23. Tech
edge-“Over†and Texans, based on series and “totals†trends.
ARIZONA at NY JETS...Mangini 2-6-1 vs. line as host since LY.
Jets “under†6 straight since late ’07, though Cards “over†12-7 for
Whisenhunt (since ’07) and “over†32-18-1 last 51 since late ’04. Tech
edge-slight to Cards, based on recent Jets home woes.
SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS...Saints “over†16-6 last 22
on board. NO also just 4-11 vs. line as Superdome chalk since ’06 (1-
0 TY). Tech edge-“Over†and 49ers, based on “totals†and team
trends.
ATLANTA at CAROLINA...â€Unders†11-4-1 last 15 in series. Falcs
“under†13-4 away since ’06, and Panthers “under†11-5-1 at Charlotte
since ‘06. Road team has won and covered last 5 meetings. Tech
edge-“Under,†based on “totals†trends.
MINNESOTA at TENNESSEE...Vikes “under†7-3 last 10 away.
Titans have turned into an “under†team after being an “over†in ’06,
now “under†13-7 since ’07. Tech edge-“Under,†based on
“totalsâ€trends.
GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY...Gruden now 6-2 vs. line as home
chalk since LY, but Pack 10-2-1 vs. line last 13 away since late ’06 (1-
0 TY). Pack also “over†8-1 away since LY and “over†16-4 since ’07.
Tech edge-“Over,†based on Pack “totals†trends.
BUFFALO at ST. LOUIS...Rams now 5-13 vs. line since ’07 (0-2
TY), 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at Edward Jones Dome. Rams “over†11-
5-1 at home since ’06 (1-0 TY), 17-8-1 “over†last 26 as host. Tech
edge-Bills and “over,†based on team and “totals†trends.
SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND...All Bolts lately in this spirited rivalry, as
Chargers have won last 9 meetings SU and stand 9-1 vs. line last 10
meetings. 5 of last 6 meetings “under†as well, but Chargers “overâ€
14-5 away since ‘06. Bolts have also covered last 6 at Oakland.
Raiders poor 11-29-1 vs. line at home since ’03. Tech edge-
Chargers and slight to “over,†based on team and Bolt “totalsâ€
trends.
WASHINGTON at DALLAS...Skins getting upper hand lately in
series, covering both meetings LY and 5 of last 6. Tech edge-slight
to Redskins, based on recent series trends.
PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO...Birds now 10-2 vs. line last 12 as
visitor, also “over†11-6 last 17 as visitor. Bears “over†15-4 last 19 at
Soldier Field. Tech edge-“Over†and Eagles, based on “totalsâ€
and team trends.
BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (Monday, September 29)...Series
“over†last 3, and Ravens have covered 5 of last 6 meetings, though
they were routed 38-7 at Heinz Field LY. Tomlin, however, is 7-3
vs. line at home since LY, and Steel 11-6 as home chalk since ’06.
Steel also “over†42-14-1 at Heinz Field since late ’01. Tech edge-
“Over†and slight to Steel, based on “totals†and team trends.
SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT
COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
COACH & POINTSPREAD-ARKANSAS over Texas, AUBURN
over Tennessee@, BALL STATE over Kent State, CINCINNATI over
Akron, EAST CAROLINA over Houston, MICHIGAN over Wisconsin,
NICHIGAN STATE over Indiana, OHIO STATE over minnesota,
OREGON over Washington State, SOUTH FLORIDA over NC State@,
TCU over Oklahoma@, VIRGINIA TECH over Nebraska@.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-ILLINOIS over Penn State@,
MICHIGAN STATE* over Indiana, NC STATE over South Florida@,
UTEP* over Ucf, UCLA* over Fresno State, VIRGINIA TECH over
Nebraska@.
RIVALRY DOGS-NEW MEXICO STATE over New Mexico, and
dog in NEVADA-UNLV game.
POWER UNDERDOGS-OREGON STATE over Southern Cal
(Thursday, September 25), ALABAMA over Georgia, ILLINOIS over
Penn State@, MICHIGAN over Wisconsin, NAVY over Wake Forest,
PURDUE* over Notre Dame, TENNESSEE over Auburn@, TCU over
Oklahoma@, VIRGINIA TECH over Nebraska@, and dog in FRESNO
STATE-UCLA game.
PAINFUL MEMORY-No plays this week.
POWER REVENGE-PENN STATE over Illinois@.
RESTED HOME WINNERS-OREGON STATE oer Southern Cal
(Thursday, September 25), DUKE over Virginia@, NEBRASKA over
Virginia Tech@, OKLAHOMA over Tcu@, OKLAHOMA ST. over Troy.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES-IDAHO over San Diego State.
STREAKBUSTERS-off pointspread win-OREGON STATE over
Southern Cal (Thursday, September 25), NORTH TEXAS over Rice,
NAVYover Wake Forest, STANFORD over Washington; off
pointspread loss-COLORADO STATE over Cal.
"AFS" (Away from spread last two decisions): PLUS (+)...BYU
+433.00, Minn 28.75, SoCal 23.00, Tulsa 20.25, Bay 18.25, ULL
18.25, Ball 17.50, UNC 16.50, Ala 16.25, Tol 16.00, Md 14.25, PennSt
13.75, UNLV 13.75, Cal 13.50, GT `13.50, Okla 12.00, Ok St 11.00,
Vandy 11.00, Utah 10.50; MINUS (-)...UCLA -34.00, WSu 33.00, Va
24.75, Rit 20.00, Ark 19.50, Wyo 19.25, Az St 18.50, Haw 17.50, Ida
17.50, WVU 17.25, Syr 16.50, EMU 16.00, Nev 15.50, Army 15.00,
Clem 15.00, FAu 13.75, Ind 13.50, Kent St 13.50, BGSU 13.00, Mich
12.00, Ohio St 12.00, Ill 11.50, Rice 11.00, ECU 10.75, USF 10.50.
POINTSPREAD STREAKS: Wins...4- Vandy, Ohio 3-0-1 last 4; 3-
AFA, Ball, Fla, GT, Penn St, TCU, Tex, Tulane, Tulsa, UNLV, MSU
2-0-1 last 3; 2-Ala, bay, BYU, Colo, Duke, KU, ULL, Md, Minn, NCS,
NIU, Okla, Ok St, SoCal, Tol, Troy, Wisc. Losses...3-Aub, EMU,
Hou, Ida, Kent St, Mich,Ohio St, Rut, USF, Syr, UAB, UTEP, WSU,
Wyo; 2-Az St, Ark, Army, Clem, ECU, Fresno, Haw, Ill, Ind, Nev, NU,
Ore, Rice, UCLA, Va, WVU.
NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-GREEN BAY over Tampa Bay,
PHILADELPHIA* over Chicago.
FAMILIARITY-KANSAS CITy over Denver, CINCINNATI# over
Cleveland, OAKLAND over San Diego.
NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK- KANSAS CITY over Denver, St.
LOUIS over Buffalo.
NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-CAROLINA over Atlanta.
*-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May conflict with
other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!! recommendation,
consult Technician’s Corner and/or Tech Plays of Week. Line moves
after Sunday night can alter selections in certain systems.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2008
POWER UNDERDOGS/PAINFUL MEMORY teams to be charted
in 2008 include Alabama, Arizona State, Auburn, Boise State, Boston
College, BYU, Cal, Cincinnati, Clemson, East Carolina, Florida,
Florida State, Fresno State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Iowa,
Kansas, LSU, Michigan, Missouri, Navy, New Mexico, Ohio State,
Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers,
South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, Southern Miss, Tennessee,
Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Tulsa, UCLA, Utah, Virginia Tech,
Wake Forest, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
POWER REVENGE teams for 2008 include Auburn, Florida,
Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, Southern
Cal, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia Tech, and Wisconsin.
IMPOTENT FAVORITES for 2008 include Army, Baylor, Eastern
Michigan, Florida International, Idaho, Kent State, New Mexico State,
North Texas, San Diego State, Stanford, Syracuse, UAB, UNLV, Utah
State, and Washington State.
COACH & POINTSPREAD coaches for 2008 include Bobby Petrino,
Arkansas; Tommy Tuberville, Auburn; Brady Hoke, Ball State; Bronco
Mendenhall, BYU; Brian Kelly, Cincinnati; Skip Holtz, East Carolina;
Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech; Mark Mangino, Kansas; Charlie
Weatherbie, Louisiana-Monroe; Rich Rodriguez, Michigan; Mark
Dantonio, Michigan State; Gary Pinkel, Missouri; Jim Tressel, Ohio
State; Mike Bellotti, Oregon; Jim Leavitt, South Florida; Gary Patterson,
TCU; and Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech.
COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG coaches for 2008 include
Mike Stoops, Arizona; Tommy Tuberville, Auburn; Brian Kelly, Cincinnati;
Tommy Bowden, Clemson; Skip Holtz, East Carolina; Urban
Meyer, Florida; Bobby Bowden Florida State; Mark Richt, Georgia;
Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech; Ron Zook, Illinois; Charlie Weatherbie,
Louisiana-Monroe; Mark Dantonio, Michigan State; Rocky Long, New
Mexico; Tom O'Brien, NC State; Jim Leavitt, South Florida; Mike
Price, UTEP; Rick Neuheisel, UCLA; Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech;
and Jim Grobe, Wake Forest.
NFL 2008
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG coaches for 2008 include Dick Jauron,
Buffalo; John Fox, Carolina; Mike Shanahan, Denver; Mike McCarthy,
Green Bay; Tony Dungy, Indianapolis; Jack Del Rio, Jacksonviille; Bill
Belichick, New England; Sean Payton, New Orleans; Tom Coughlin,
NY Giants; Andy Reid, Philadelphia; and Jeff Fisher, Tennessee.
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 25 2008 2:19am -
0 likes
WINNING POINTS - NFL
(BB 6-3) (PRE 0-4)
****BEST BET
San Francisco over *New Orleans by 14
San Francisco has a respectable defense and talent on offense.The important
factor here is the 49ers now know how to maneuver their offensive
talent.That makes them a dangerous foe against a crippled Saints defense
that remains highly vulnerable through the air. Like him or not, Mike Martz
is making a difference as San Francisco’s offensive coordinator.The 49ers’
offense is improving each game as the players, and new quarterback J.T.
O’Sullivan, get more comfortable with Martz’s elaborate West Coast system.
San Francisco has gained 365 and 370 yards, respectively, in their last two
games facing a good defense (Seattle) and a bad one (Detroit).The Saints’
defense is closer to Detroit’s defense. Martz has said O’Sullivan is the best
quarterback he’s ever coached.The 49ers have controlled the clock averaging
35 minutes in time of possession during this span.They have an elite
runner, Frank Gore, to give them balance.This is a key because the potent
Saints offense can’t score when they’re on the sidelines. Being on carpet
also speeds up the 49ers’ offense. It’s particularly helpful to veteran wideout
Isaac Bruce, who has lost a step but still knows how to get open.The
Saints are without their best wide receiver, Marques Colston. Running back
Deuce McAllister has yet to be a factor. Until McAllister proves he’s healthy
enough to contribute, the Saints lack an inside ground attack.That proved
costly last week in a two-point loss at Denver when the Saints couldn’t
punch the ball in from the one-yard line near the end of the first half. By
now defenses realize the Saints are gearing their offense almost entirely to
Reggie Bush. The 49ers will be keying on Bush, who is not a heavy-duty
back. San Francisco holds a huge edge in the kicking game. Joe Nedney is
among the best place-kickers in the NFL. Saints kicker, Martin Gramatica, is
struggling. SAN FRANCISCO 31-17.
***BEST BET
Buffalo over *St. Louis by 24
Looking to go 5-0 heading into their bye week, the Bills have lots of
momentum. They had their scare last week at home, nearly losing to
Oakland. So don’t look for the Bills to let up as they face the Rams, the
NFL’s worst team. Buffalo is off to its first 3-0 start since 1992. On the opposite
end are the Rams. How bad is St. Louis? The Rams are equal opportunity
employers.They rank last both in offense and defense.They have been
outscored by 87 points already in just three games for an average loss of 29
points per game.The Rams are 0-15 versus teams with a winning mark, 2-
13 ATS. Buffalo is expanding its offense with star left tackle Jason Peters
rounding into shape after a lengthy holdout.Marshawn Lynch keeps getting
better and second-year quarterback Trent Edwards is gaining more confidence
resulting in a larger playbook.The Rams’ best pass rusher, defensive
end Leonard Little, may not play because of a hamstring injury. The Bills
have an aggressive defense with young talent.They also have arguably the
top special teams units in football with dangerous kickoff and punt returners.
Buffalo last visited St. Louis 13 years ago.The Bills are used to playing
on artificial turf, though.The Rams offense no longer can carry their weak
defense. In fact, their offense has gotten so weak that it now needs to be
carried. Quarterback Marc Bulger is shell-shocked. He hasn’t had a 200-yard
passing game this season. There are injuries at wide receiver and in the
offensive line. Torry Holt no longer has his explosiveness and Steven
Jackson hasn’t been able to do anything on the ground or out of the backfield.
He’s rushed 50 times for 159 yards, a pedestrian 3.1 yard average. He’s
still looking for his first touchdown of the season.Yes, it’s seems strange to
lay a big number with Buffalo, especially when the Bills are on the road. But
in this matchup, it’s justified. BUFFALO 33-9.
**PREFERRED
*Carolina over Atlanta by 17
The Falcons are improved and playing hard for first-year head coach Mike
Smith. But the Falcons have not improved enough to the point where they
can beat a good club on the road.Atlanta’s two victories have come against
two very weak foes, Detroit and Kansas City, both at home. When the
Falcons ventured away from the Georgia Dome, they were soundly
smacked by division foe, Tampa Bay. This matchup is very similar. The
Falcons are a turf team playing on grass against a well-coached, tough
defensive club. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan couldn’t do anything at
Tampa. Don’t look for him to fare any better in his second pro career away
start. A rejuvenated Julius Peppers is going to make things miserable for
him. Ryan has yet to exhibit accuracy on his medium-to-deep throws.The
Falcons have been relying on running back Michael Turner and short passes.
That’s not enough to get it down here. Steve Smith is back from suspension
to provide the Panthers with a vertical threat. The Falcons’ secondary
has been vulnerable all season. Luckily for them, they haven’t seen
stellar quarterbacks. Jake Delhomme isn’t an elite quarterback, but he has
two good running backs and Smith.That will be enough given the Falcons’
limitations on the road. CAROLINA 27-10.
*Tennessee over Minnesota by 13
Is it a fluke the Titans are 3-0 for the first time since ’99? Not really. The
Titans remain under the radar screen because they don’t have any marquee
stars.They do have defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, though. He’s a premier
run-stuffer.The Vikings are trying to get by with Adrian Peterson and
37-year-old Gus Frerotte at quarterback after coach Brad Childress became
the last person in the world to give up on Tarvaris Jackson. Peterson doesn’t
have his full motor, however, because of a hamstring injury. Frerotte is
an upgrade on Jackson, but that isn’t saying much.Frerotte was 1-2 with the
Rams last season, throwing six touchdowns with 10 interceptions. He is 38-
44-1 as an NFL-starter.The Titans don’t exactly have a youngster behind center
either with Kerry Collins. The Titans have two good runners, LenDale
White and rookie Chris Johnson, to keep defenses from keying on Collins,
who happens to be ranked third among active quarterbacks in passing
yards behind Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. Collins has been managing
the Titans well since Vince Young was injured. The Vikings are poorlycoached
and playing on grass, which reduces the quickness of their pass
rushers.The Titans have enough edges to cover a short number.TENNESSEE
26-13.
CLOSE CALLS
Denver over *Kansas City by 13
Calling Len Dawson.The Chiefs sure could use their old quarterback – even
at age 73. Kansas City has yet to adequately replace Trent Green.The Chiefs
are averaging 10.6 points. Herm Edwards has been a disaster of a coach.
The Chiefs have dropped a franchise-record 12 consecutive games.They’ve
failed to cover the spread in their past five home contests.After seeing Matt
Cassel, JaMarcus Russell and Matt Ryan, the Chiefs now draw a red-hot Jay
Cutler.The Broncos have lost four of their past five at Arrowhead Stadium.
But they should prevail here if Brandon Marshall can stop getting arrested.
DENVER 30-17.
*Cincinnati over Cleveland by 7
Call it the Crisis Bowl. Neither team has won yet. The Bengals may have
ended their offensive slump scored 23 points and gaining 347 yards on the
road last week versus the Giants. Carson Palmer should fare better after
having faced tough defenses in Baltimore,Tennessee in extreme wind conditions
and the Giants. It’s difficult, though, to ever place any trust in the
undisciplined Bengals although they have defeated Cleveland the past four
times at home.The Browns have lost their confidence and may be making
a quarterback switch from Derek Anderson to Brady Quinn, the people’s
choice. CINCINNATI 20-13.
*Jacksonville over Houston by 6
The Texans usually play the Jaguars strong, owning a 7-5 lifetime mark
against them.This includes a 6-2 ATS record during the past four seasons.
Jacksonville also is coming off a huge last-second road victory against division
rival Indianapolis. Still, this isn’t a good spot either for Houston.
Because of Hurricane Ike, the Texans are opening the season playing three
straight road games,the first time that’s happened in the league since 1991.
The Texans have only been able to average 275 yards against a couple of
other tough defenses, Pittsburgh and Tennessee, and the team may be losing
confidence in quarterback Matt Schaub. JACKSONVILLE 23-17.
*New York Jets over Arizona by 7
New York is on a short week following its Monday night road game against
San Diego.Yet the spot is much worse for Arizona.The Cardinals are staying
out East after losing Sunday to the Redskins.Arizona has dropped 58 of
its past 74 road contests.The Cards have failed to cover in seven of their
last eight versus AFC opponents. Brett Favre gets all the attention, but Kurt
Warner is another old warrior who has been playing surprising well with
just one turnover this season. He’s averaging around 300 yards passing during
his last nine starts.Arizona has scored 20 or more points in 10 of its last
11 games. NY JETS 34-27.
Green Bay over *Tampa Bay by 2
Under Mike McCarthy, the Packers have become a tough road foe.They are
12-5 SU away from Lambeau Field behind McCarthy, 9-2 ATS in their last 11
road matchups.The Packers have a solid defense and a diversified offense.
Tampa Bay has a solid defense, too, but no downfield passing attack. Don’t
be fooled by Brian Griese passing for more than 400 yards last week. He’s
strictly a check-off type of quarterback. He couldn’t unseat Rex Grossman
at Chicago. Griese also could be without his lone deep threat, Joey
Galloway (check status). He didn’t play last week because of a foot injury.
GREEN BAY 21-19.
San Diego over *Oakland by 4
“Just win, baby†has long been replaced as the Raiders’ motto by “Just be
dysfunctional,baby.â€Lane Kiffin may actually be looking forward to Al Davis
firing him. Now the Raiders face a team that has defeated them nine
straight times, covering eight of the nine, by a victory margin of nearly 16
points a game. Temper your enthusiasm, though, for San Diego. The
Chargers entered their Monday night game against the Jets yielding 32.5
points. San Diego’s pass rush isn’t the same without injured Shawne
Merriman, leaving its cornerbacks exposed. SAN DIEGO 30-26.
*Dallas over Washington by 7
The Cowboys have more weapons than Barack Obama has campaign
spending money. But Washington could keep this close as its offense is
coming around after a slow opener picking up new coach Jim Zorn’s West
Coast schemes.Clinton Portis is running well again. Dallas’ run defense isn’t
as good missing injured hard-hitting safety Roy Williams. This is a fierce
rivalry that the Redskins may be taking more serious than Dallas, which is
off a Monday night home game versus Philadelphia and a Sunday night road
game against Green Bay.Now the Cowboys have to wheel back to face this
traditional foe. DALLAS 28-21.
*Chicago over Philadelphia by 2
The Eagles are going to be in trouble if Pro Bowl running back Brian
Westbrook is sidelined because of an ankle injury suffered last Sunday.The
Bears defense remains fierce and can tee off on Donovan McNabb if there’s
no threat of a ground attack.The Eagles remain without top wideout Kevin
Curtis and tight end L.J. Smith has been a non-factor up to this point.The
Bears, on the other hand, need Devin Hester (check status), who was out
last week with bruised ribs. Fearing Philadelphia’s blitzes, the Bears probably
will look to be very conservative. CHICAGO 19-17.
*Pittsburgh over Baltimore by 14 (Monday)
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (check status) is taking a heavy
pounding in every game as his offensive line gets its act together.
Baltimore’s defense is playing well again, but this is a real tough venue and
spot for Ravens’ rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.The Ravens’ offensive line
also is in a state of transition and could have problems handling the crowd
noise and Pittsburgh’s defensive team speed. The Steelers’ 3-4 defense is
tough to run on. So Flacco will need to make plays.The Ravens are 1-8 ATS
in their last nine away games, 1-4 ATS as a road ‘dog. PITTSBURGH 27-13.
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: San Diego at Oakland –Without their edge pass rushers, San
Diego’s defense is much weaker. The Raiders have gone ‘over’ in eight of
their last 10.
UNDER: Cleveland at Cincinnati – The Bengals have gone ‘under’ in
seven of their last nine, while Browns quarterback Derek Anderson is averaging
135 yards passing and has thrown five interceptions and just two
touchdowns.
OVER: Arizona at NY Jets – The Cardinals have gone ‘over’ 72 percent
during their last 25 games thanks to an aggressive downfield passing attack
and suspect defense.
posted by phantom
Sept. 25 2008 2:21am -
0 likes
Air Force
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 DL Stephen Larson Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 WR Spencer Armstrong Fibula is out indefinitely
2008-09-20 QB Eric Herbort Academics has left team
2008-09-01 WR Ty Paffett Back is out indefinitely
2008-08-31 TE Travis Dekker Ankle out until early October
Akron
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 DL Ryan Bain Foot downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-21 DT Eric Lively Elbow downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-20 RB Alex Allen Hip missed last game '?'
2008-09-19 NT Cowles Stewart Leg is out for the season.
Alabama
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 LB Rolando McClain Foot is upgraded to probable
2008-08-26 QB Nick Fanuzzi None has transferred.
2008-07-17 LB Ezekial Knight Illness expected to miss entire season.
2008-07-01 LB Jimmy Johns Disciplinary has been suspended from the team.
Arizona State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 OL Matt Hustad Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 RB Dimitri Nance Thumb missed last game '?'
2008-09-19 RB Keegan Herring Hamstring missed last game '?'
2008-09-17 RB James Morrison Ankle is likely out for the season.
2008-09-11 LB Chad Lindsey, Personal has left the team.
2008-09-11 CB Grant Crunkleton None has left the team.
2008-09-10 LB Brandon Magee Pectoral is out indefinitely.
2008-09-06 DB Angelo Fobbs-Valentino Leg expected to miss at least two weeks
Arizona U
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 C Blake Kerley Knee injured last game, is likely out for the season.
2008-09-09 DT Johnathan Turner Legal problems is out indefinitely.
2008-09-09 DT Lolmana Mikaele Suspension is out indefinitely.
2008-09-07 WR Terrell Reese Suspension is out indefinitely
Arkansas
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 WR Lucas Miller Concussion is downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-22 WR Marques Wade Knee expected to miss the rest of the season
2008-09-21 LB Wendel Davis Knee missed last game, '?'
2008-09-09 OL Mitch Petrus Eligibility out for the season
Arkansas State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 WR Jahbari McLennan Concussion left last game, '?'
2008-08-21 RB Preston Brown Suspension is expected to miss entire season
Army
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 DE Nicholas Emmons Undisclosed is downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-22 QB Carson Williams Hand is upgraded to probable
2008-09-20 QB Chip Bowden Ankle left last game, "?"
2008-09-14 QB Paul McIntosh None has left the team
Auburn
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 RB Tristan Davis Head left last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-22 WR Robert Dunn Hand left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 RB Brad Lester Leg upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 WR John Douglas Knee missed last game, '?'
2008-09-20 CB Zac Etheridge Arm left last game, "?"
2008-09-07 WR Chris Slaughter Suspension out indefinitely
2008-09-06 DB Marcus Jemison Leg is expected to miss entire season
2008-09-02 WR Philip Pierre-Louis Knee is out for the season.
2008-08-07 CB Aairon Savage Knee expected to miss entire season
Ball State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 WR Dante Love Head is out for the season.
Boise State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-08-26 QB Nick Lomax None is expected to transfer.
Boston College
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-15 DL Alex Albright Neck out for the season
2008-08-31 WR Dominick Magazu None has transferred
Bowling Green
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 WR Freddie Barnes Shoulder left last game, "?"
2008-09-23 OL Jeff Fink Undisclosed is upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 LB Erique Dozier Ankle left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 RB Anthony Turner Shoulder left last game, "?"
2008-08-23 OL DJ Young Personal has left the team.
2008-08-13 RB Eric Ransom Knee is out for the season.
2008-08-13 WR Derek Brighton Ankle expected to miss 6-8 weeks
Buffalo U
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 RB James Starks Knee missed last game, downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-20 CB Kendrick Hawkins Foot missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 DL Ronald Hilaire Leg missed last game '?'
2008-08-26 LB Jamal Chisam Knee is expected to miss the entire season
2008-08-07 LB Darius Willis Academics is academically ineligible
2008-08-07 LB Fred Branch Back is expected to miss entire season
2008-08-07 LB Obi Ezemma Academics is academically ineligible
BYU
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 WR Michael Reed Knee expected to miss 2 - 4 weeks
2008-09-08 LB Vic So'oto Foot expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
2008-09-01 DT Terrance Hooks Knee is expected to miss the season.
2008-08-16 LB Dan Van Sweden Leg expected to miss entire season
2008-08-06 C Tom Sorenson Shoulder expected to miss 4-6 weeks
2008-08-02 LB Grant Nelson Illness is expected to miss 2008-2009 season.
California
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 RB Shane Vereen Ankle upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 WR Marvin Jones Knee is out indefinitely
2008-09-21 WR Michael Calvin Toe is upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 RB Jahvid Best Sternum is upgraded to probable
2008-09-11 DL Kendrick Payne Knee is expected to miss at least 3 weeks.
Central Florida
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 WR Kamar Aiken Foot missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 QB Michael Greco Knee upgraded to probable
2008-09-23 LB Jordan Richards Undisclosed upgraded to probable
2008-09-22 OL Jeramy DeVane Personal is out indefinitely
2008-08-07 WR AJ Guyton ACL expected to miss entire season
2008-08-07 RB Phillip Smith Disciplinary has been dismissed from the team.
Central Michigan
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 LB Calvin Hissong Neck expected to miss entire season.
Cincinnati U
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-09 QB Dustin Grutza Ankle is out indefinitely.
2008-08-08 QB Ben Mauk Eligibility has been denied an extra year of eligibility.
Clemson
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 OL David Smith Ankle is expected to miss up to 3 weeks.
2008-09-21 OT Chris Hairston Knee missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 WR Terrence Ashe Ankle missed last game, '?'.
2008-09-05 OT Rashaad Jackson Quad is out indefinitely.
2008-09-04 DT Jamie Cumbie Wrist likely to miss rest of season
2008-09-04 OL Barry Humphries Knee is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
Colorado
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 WR Jason Espinoza Collarbone is expected to miss.
2008-09-24 WR Kendrick Celestine Personal has left the team.
2008-09-22 LB BJ Beatty Leg is doubtful
2008-09-18 LB Lynn Katoa Eligibility expected to miss entire season
2008-09-03 OL Ethan Adkins Suspension is out indefinitely.
2008-08-21 WR Markques Simas Eligibility expected to miss entire season
2008-08-21 OT Sione Tau Eligibility expected to miss entire season
2008-08-14 LB Jon Major ACL expected to miss entire season
2008-08-14 DE Drew Hudgins ACL expected to miss entire season
Colorado State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 OL Mark Starr Ankle is upgraded to probable
2008-09-23 DB Brandon Owens Ankle is upgraded to probable
2008-09-23 C Tim Walter Ankle is upgraded to probable
2008-09-18 K/P Jason Smith Arm is out indefinitely
2008-09-18 CB DeAngelo Wilkinson Suspension is out indefinitely
Connecticut
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-12 OL Alex LaMagdelanie Shoulder is out for the season.
2008-08-02 DT Jarrell Miller Personal has left the team.
Duke
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 RB Re'Quan Boyette Knee downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-02 TE Brandon King Collarbone is out for the season.
East Carolina
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 DT Khalif Mitchell Toe is "?".
2008-09-24 DL Scotty Robinson Foot left last game, downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-24 WR TJ Lee Foot is downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-23 CB Leon Best Ankle left last game, "?"
2008-09-23 CB Jerek Hewett Ankle left last game, "?"
2008-09-23 FB Kevin Gidrey Thumb is upgraded to probable
2008-09-15 OL Stanley Bryant Leg out indefinitely.
2008-09-14 LB Quentin Cotton Knee expected to miss the rest of the season
2008-08-26 RB DaRonte McNeil None has transferred.
2008-08-26 WR DeMorio Waymon None has transferred.
2008-08-17 RB Dominique Lindsay Knee is out for the season.
2008-08-14 DT Brandon Setzer Knee expected to miss the entire season
Eastern Michigan
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 QB Andy Schmitt Shoulder missed last game '?'
2008-09-09 DB Derrick Hunter Knee out indefinitely.
Florida
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 TE Aaron Hernandez Leg injured in practice, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-24 LB Ryan Stamper Ankle left last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 DL Jermaine Cunningham Leg is "?".
2008-09-20 DL Torrey Davis Disciplinary missed last game is '?'
2008-09-17 DT John Brown Hand is out indefinitely.
2008-08-12 OL Jim Barrie ACL expected to miss entire season
2008-08-12 LB Brendan Beal ACL is expected to miss entire season
2008-08-09 TE Cornelius Ingram ACL is out for the season.
2008-08-07 S Dorian Munroe ACL expected to miss entire season
Florida Atlantic
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-01 C Nick Paris Foot out until Sept 30 against Middle Tennessee State
2008-08-21 TE Darian Williams Knee expected to miss entire season
2008-07-17 WR Jason Harmon ACL expected to miss entire season
Florida Intl
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 WR Kendall Berry Knee is expected to miss entire season.
2008-09-21 OL Devon Dickerson Abdominal missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 WR Ashlyn Parker Foot missed last game, '?'
2008-09-20 TE Moses Hinton Eligibility missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 DL Cody Pellicer Finger expected to miss 2 weeks
Florida State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 DT Moses McCray Knee expected to miss.
2008-09-23 DL Paul Griffin Suspension is not expected to return until Oct. 4 vs Miami Hurricanes.
2008-09-20 DB Dionte Allen Ankle missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 C AJ Ganguzza Knee missed last game, downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-19 DT Emmanuel Dunbar Back is expected to miss entire season.
2008-08-29 RB Tavares Pressley Knee is expected to miss entire season.
2008-07-17 OL Evan Bellamy Blood Clot is expected to miss entire season.
Fresno State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 DT Cornell Banks Ankle missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss.
2008-09-22 DL Jon Monga Knee expected to miss 3 - 4 weeks
2008-09-21 OL Richard Pacheco Hamstring missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 WR Jason Crawley Hamstring missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 WR Devon Wylie Foot missed last game, '?'
2008-09-16 LG Cole Popovich Quad is out indefinitely.
2008-09-09 LB Quaadir Brown Personal out for the season
2008-09-09 LB Nick Bates Arm out 6-8 weeks.
2008-08-19 LB Ryan Machado ACL out for the season.
Georgia
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 S Quintin Banks MCL upgraded to "?".
2008-09-24 DE Roderick Battle Neck missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss.
2008-09-24 WR Tavarres King Ankle is expected to miss.
2008-09-22 TE Tripp Chandler Neck upgraded to probable
2008-09-22 DE Jeremy Lomax Neck upgraded to probable
2008-09-19 LS Jeff Henson Suspension is out for the season.
2008-09-06 LB Charles White Achilles is expected to miss entire season
2008-09-02 FB Brannan Southerland Foot upgraded to '?'
2008-08-31 DL Jeff Owens ACL is expected to miss entire season
2008-08-26 OL Chris Little Foot out indefinitely.
2008-08-12 OT Trinton Sturdivant Knee is expected to miss entire season.
Georgia Tech
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 QB Josh Nesbitt Hamstring injured last game, "?".
2008-09-20 WR Correy Earls Hamstring missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 CB Martin Frierson Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 LB Brad Jefferson Arm missed last game '?'
2008-09-19 OL AJ Smith Elbow missed last game '?'
2008-07-01 CB Jerrard Tarrant Suspension has been suspended from the team.
Hawaii
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 DT Fale Laeli Knee missed last game, probable.
2008-09-23 RB David Farmer Knee missed last 3 games, "?".
2008-09-23 RB Daniel Libre Ankle downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-23 RB Leon Wright-Jackson Foot upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 OL Laupepa Letuli Shoulder missed last game, upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 QB Tyler Graunke Wrist upgraded to probable
2008-09-17 OL Keith AhSoon Shoulder is expected to miss at least 6 weeks.
2008-09-08 LB Blaze Soares Calf is '?'
Houston U
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 DT Ell Ash Ankle is expected to miss.
2008-09-24 RB Andre Kohn Abdominal left last game, expected to miss.
Idaho
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 S Shiloh Keo Abdominal downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-23 WR Maurice Shaw Leg downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-08 OL Matt Cleveland Fibula is out indefinitely
2008-08-12 OT Mike Iupati Shoulder expected to miss the first 4 games of the season
Illinois
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 OL Ryan Palmer Foot is expected to miss 3-4 weeks
2008-09-21 S Donsay Hardeman Knee is upgraded to probable
2008-09-17 OL Randall Hunt Knee missed last game, probable.
2008-09-17 WR Jeff Cumberland Foot upgraded to probable.
2008-09-10 DB Miami Thomas ACL is out for the season.
2008-09-08 WR Brian Gamble Undisclosed has left the team.
2008-08-13 DT Sirod Williams ACL expected to miss the entire season
2008-08-01 DT D'Angelo McCray Academics has decided to transfer.
Indiana
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 DB Christopher Phillips Knee is out for the season
2008-09-24 DB Nick Polk Knee left last game, downgraded to expected to miss.
2008-09-21 DB Austin Thomas Leg missed last game, '?'
2008-09-20 OT Rodger Saffold Knee left last game, "?"
Iowa
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 OL Jeff Tarpinian Hamstring missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 QB Ricky Stanzi None is expected to start.
2008-09-22 LB Dezman Moses Suspension is expected to miss next 4 games.
2008-08-07 OL Dace Richardson Knee is expected to miss entire season
Iowa State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 LB Michael Bibbs Leg left last game, '?'
2008-09-02 DB Kennard Banks Arm out indefinitely.
Kansas
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-17 CB Kendrick Harper Undisclosed missed last game, expected to miss.
2008-09-12 WR Dexton Fields Leg missed last game '?'
2008-08-19 PK Stephen Hoge Personal has left the team.
2008-08-16 P Kyle Davis Personal has quit the team.
2008-08-16 RB Carmon Boyd-Anderson Personal has decided to transfer.
Kansas State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 LB John Houlik Suspension Served upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 DT Xzavier Stewart Undisclosed missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 OL Edward Prince Undisclosed missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 RB Dee Bell Undisclosed missed last game, '?'
2008-09-14 RB Leon Patton Suspension has been dismissed from the team
Kent
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 TE Jameson Konz Ankle downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-23 RB Eugene Jarvis Ankle downgraded to doubtful
Kentucky
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 LT Garry Williams Knee upgraded to probable
2008-09-23 LB Micah Johnson Ankle downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-22 DT Ricky Lumpkin Ankle is downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-16 FB John Conner Stinger left last game, "?"
2008-09-16 KR Randall Cobb Ankle is downgraded to out indefinitely
2008-09-13 CB David Jones Knee left last game, "?"
2008-09-07 WR EJ Fields Hamstring is out indefinitely
2008-08-07 CB Paul Warford Eligibility will miss entire season
2008-08-05 QB Curtis Pulley Disciplinary has been dismissed from the team.
Louisiana Tech
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-08-23 DT Rolando Melancon Eligibility expected to miss entire season
2008-08-16 RB William Griffin Personal has decided to transfer.
Louisville
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 WR Troy Pascley Hip left last game, "?"
2008-09-23 OL Mark Wetterer Undisclosed missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 OL George Bussey Ankle missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-18 WR Scott Long Foot missed last game '?'
2008-08-19 QB Matt Simms Disciplinary has been suspended for the first 4 games of season.
2008-08-07 RB George Stripling Disciplinary has been dismissed from the team.
2008-07-17 WR Jajuan Spillman Disciplinary has been dismissed from the team.
LSU
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 QB Andrew Hatch Concussion upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 LB Darry Beckwith Knee missed last game, '?'
Marshall
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 PK Craig Ratanamorn Hip missed last game, '?'
2008-09-20 S Omar Brown Foot missed last game is '?'
2008-09-20 LB Tyson Gale Ankle missed last game is '?'
2008-09-20 WR Charles Walker Knee missed last game is '?'
2008-09-20 RB Terrell Edwards Leg missed last game is '?'
2008-09-20 K Craig Ratanamorn Hip missed last game is '?'
2008-09-17 TE Maurice Graham Leg out for season
2008-09-17 DB Zearrick Matthews Foot downgraded to expected to miss next 2 weeks
2008-09-17 DL Montel Glasco Leg out for season
2008-09-01 CB JJ Johnson Suspension has been dismissed from team
Maryland
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 DE Mack Frost Knee is upgraded to "?".
2008-09-24 LB Adrian Moten Wrist upgraded to "?".
2008-09-23 FS Terrell Skinner Ankle missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-22 WR LaQuan Williams Foot downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-22 NT Travis Ivey Foot upgraded to '?'
2008-09-21 DB Richard Taylor Knee out for the season
2008-09-20 DB Nolan Carroll Foot missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 RB Da"Rel Scott Shoulder missed last game probable
2008-09-05 WR Kevin Dorsey Foot is expected to miss entire season
2008-09-04 QB Jordan Steffy Thumb downgraded to expected to miss at least 3 weeks.
Memphis
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 LB Greg Jackson Suspension missed last game, expected to miss
2008-09-23 WR Maurice Jones Shoulder missed last game, '?'
2008-09-13 C Ronald Leary Ankle missed last game is '?'
2008-09-12 RB Gregory Ray Hamstring is expected to miss 6-8 weeks.
2008-08-27 RB TJ Pitts Ankle expected to miss 2-4 weeks.
2008-08-19 OL Terrence Echols MCL expected to miss 4 - 6 weeks.
2008-08-19 OL Michael Denning MCL expected to miss 4 - 6 weeks.
Miami Florida
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 DT Marcus Forston Stinger is upgraded to probable
2008-09-22 S Randy Phillips Leg is out indefinitely.
2008-09-20 DT Josh Holmes Undisclosed missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 RB Javarris James Ankle missed last game, expected to miss
2008-09-06 OL Chris Barney Undisclosed is out indefinitely
2008-09-01 WR Tommy Streeter Wrist is expected to miss entire season
2008-09-01 DE Courtney Harris Achilles expected to miss entire season
Michigan
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 OL Perry Dorrestein Knee is "?".
2008-09-23 WR Terrence Robinson Knee missed last game, expected to miss.
2008-09-22 OL Mark Ortmann Elbow missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-21 DB Brandon Smith Appendix will likely redshirt
2008-08-28 OG Cory Zirble Knee is expected to miss 6-8 weeks
2008-08-24 OL Elliot Mealer Shoulder is expected to miss entire season
Michigan State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 DB Kendell Davis-Clark Shoulder missed last game, downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-21 RB Javon Ringer Ankle is upgraded to probable
2008-08-31 LB Jon Misch Foot expected to miss four weeks
2008-08-31 S Roderick Jenrette Personal has left the team.
2008-08-15 S Enrique Shaw Personal has left the team.
Middle Tenn St
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 OL Evon Lettsome Ankle missed last game is '?'
2008-09-10 WR Michael Cannon Knee will miss the season
2008-08-11 C Jake Padrick Knee is expected to miss the entire season.
Minnesota U
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 LT Dominic Alford Ankle missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-24 OL Trey Davis Hand upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 RT Nedward Tavale Ankle missed last game, "?".
2008-09-09 RB Duane Bennett Knee is out for the season.
2008-08-26 WR Damien White None has left the team.
Mississippi St
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 DB Keith Fitzhugh Concussion left last game, "?"
2008-09-23 WR Marcus Green Pelvis missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss.
2008-09-23 WR O'Neal Wilder Knee is "?".
2008-09-23 LB Dominic Douglas Achilles is "?".
2008-09-21 DB Derek Pegues Ankle left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 OL Michael Gates Hamstring left last game, "?"
2008-09-20 PK Eric Richards Hip missed last game '?'
2008-09-02 LB Jamar Chaney Ankle is out for the season.
Missouri
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-15 LB Steve Redmond MCL expected to miss entire season
2008-09-03 DE Michael Keck Personal has quit the team.
2008-08-16 OL Bryan Webb Personal has quit the team.
2008-08-16 DL Andy Maples Foot is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
Navy
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 RT Andrew McGinn Concussion missed last 2 games, doubtful.
2008-09-23 LB Craig Schaefer Concussion upgraded to probable.
2008-09-21 DE Michael Walsh Toe left last game, "?"
NC State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 QB Harrison Beck None is expected to start.
2008-09-23 OL Curtis Crouch Ankle downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-22 LB Nate Irving Leg is out indefinitely.
2008-09-22 QB Russell Wilson Shoulder is out indefinitely.
2008-09-22 DE Alan-Michael Cash Knee is out indefinitely
2008-09-22 TE Anthony Hill Chest is out indefinitely
2008-09-20 WR Geron James Ankle missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 DE Jeff Rieskamp Shoulder missed last game '?'
2008-09-12 TE Matt Kushner Knee is out for the season.
2008-08-28 SS Javon Walker Knee will miss the season
2008-08-19 QB Justin Burke None has decided to transfer.
2008-08-15 WR Donald Bowens Back will miss the season
2008-08-13 S Clem Johnson Jaw expected to miss entire season
2008-08-13 RB Toney Baker Knee is out indefinitely
Nebraska
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 OL Andy Christensen Suspension Served upgraded to "?".
2008-09-23 CB Anthony West Knee upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 DE Pierre Allen Foot missed last game, probable.
2008-09-23 S Rickey Thenarse Shoulder upgraded to probable, "?" to start.
2008-09-13 OL D.J. Jones Undisclosed missed last game '?'
2008-09-13 FB Thomas Lawson Appendix missed last game '?'
2008-09-06 DE Barry Turner Leg out for the season.
2008-08-30 CB Anthony Blue Knee is out indefinitely
2008-08-07 DT Kevin Dixon Disciplinary has been dismissed from the team.
Nevada
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 RB Brandon Fragger Shoulder is expected to miss 4 weeks
2008-09-07 RB Luke Lippincott ACL injured last game, out for season
2008-09-06 CB Dayton Guillory Undisclosed has been dismissed from team
New Mexico
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 DB Jerome Jenkins Ankle out for the season
2008-09-22 QB Donovan Porterie ACL is downgraded to expected to miss the remainder of the season
2008-09-22 S Ian Clark Shoulder is downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-01 S Mike Love Academics is out indefinitely
New Mexico State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 OL Kyle Smith Foot left last game, "?"
2008-09-16 TE Ryan Franzoy ACL is out for the season.
2008-09-07 DB Chris Woods None has transferred
No Illinois
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 QB Dan Nicholson Shoulder limited last game, probable
2008-09-21 DB Melvin Rice Hamstring missed last game, '?'
2008-09-08 QB Chandler Harnish Foot out indefinitely
2008-08-18 TE David Koronkiewicz Elbow expected to miss entire season
North Carolina
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 QB Mike Paulus None is expected to start.
2008-09-22 QB TJ Yates Ankle is expected to miss at least 6 weeks.
2008-09-20 DE Darrius Massenburg Knee missed last game '?'
North Texas
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 OL Kelvin Drake Ankle is downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-23 OL Esteban Santiago Undisclosed missed last game, probable.
2008-09-23 OL JJ Johnson Undisclosed missed last game, probable.
2008-09-23 WR Brock Stickler Undisclosed missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 WR Casey Fitzgerald Shoulder upgraded to probable
2008-09-13 RB Micah Mosley Shoulder missed last game '?'
2008-09-13 DB Adryan Adams Undisclosed missed last game '?'
2008-09-05 WR Jamel Jackson Collarbone is out indefinitely
2008-08-30 WR Evan Fentriss Personal has left the team
2008-08-30 LB Justin Padron Personal has left the team
2008-08-16 WR Marcus King Personal has decided to transfer.
2008-08-14 DE Alonzo Horton Eligibility expected to miss entire season
Northwestern
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 OL Kurt Mattes Knee missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss.
2008-09-22 WR Andrew Brewer Undisclosed is downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-22 RB Tyrell Sutton Leg is upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 QB C.J. Bacher Hand is upgraded to probable
2008-09-20 LB Bryce McNaul Leg missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 WR Kevin Frymire Ankle missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 DL Niko Mafuli Undisclosed missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 OL Keegan Grant Ankle missed last game '?'
2008-09-19 DB Justan Vaughn Illness is downgraded to expected to miss the season
2008-08-11 WR Drake Dunsmore ACL expected to miss entire season
Notre Dame
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 WR David Grimes Back missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-24 TE Will Yeatman Legal problems downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-20 S Jashaad Gaines Personal out indefinitely
2008-08-22 CB Darrin Walls Personal has left the school.
2008-08-22 TE Mike Ragone ACL expected to miss the entire season
Ohio
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 OL Tommy Stuck Suspension missed last game '?'
2008-09-12 QB Theo Scott Shoulder is out for the season.
2008-08-31 FB Mitch Morsillo Shoulder is out indefinitely
Ohio State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 DB Tyler Moeller Leg missed last game '?'
2008-09-18 RB Beanie Wells Foot is upgraded to probable
2008-09-17 OG Steve Rehring Foot out indefinitely
Oklahoma
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 TE Eric Mensik Ankle is expected to miss at least 4 weeks.
2008-09-18 DT DeMarcus Granger Foot will be out at least 4 weeks and could miss the rest of the season.
2008-09-13 WR Brandon Caleb Ankle missed last game is '?'
2008-09-13 DB Quinton Carter Knee missed last game is '?'
2008-09-02 DE John Williams Personal is out indefinitely.
Oklahoma State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 WR Artrell Woods Knee upgraded to probable
2008-09-23 WR Damian Davis Undisclosed upgraded to probable
2008-09-22 S Lucien Antoine Knee is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
2008-09-21 DT Jeray Chatham Foot missed last game, '?'
2008-08-20 OL Michael Booker None has transferred.
2008-08-17 WR William Cole Knee will miss entire season
Oregon
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 QB Jeremiah Masoli Head left last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-24 DB Walter Thurmond III Groin missed last game, downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-14 QB Justin Roper Knee injured last game, out 2 - 4 weeks
2008-08-26 LB Kevin Garrett Suspension has been dismissed from the team.
2008-08-24 QB Nathan Costa ACL expected to miss the season
Oregon State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 DE Victor Butler Ankle upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 OG Jeremy Perry Knee upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 QB Sean Canfield Shoulder upgraded to "?".
2008-09-23 S Cameron Collins Hamstring is "?".
2008-09-23 S Austin Hall Knee is "?".
2008-09-23 PK Justin Kahut Hip is "?".
2008-09-01 S Bryan Payton None has transferred
2008-09-01 RB Patrick Fuller None has transferred
2008-09-01 CB James Dockery Knee expected to miss at least three weeks
2008-09-01 OL Brent McNeil Toe is out indefinitely
2008-08-07 T Tavita Thompson Academics will be eligible to return on (11/01) vs Arizona State
Penn State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 OL Doug Klopacz ACL is out for the season
2008-09-24 OL Mike Lucian Ankle upgraded to probable
2008-09-24 TE Mickey Shuler Ankle upgraded to probable
2008-09-23 DL Maurice Evans Suspension Served missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 DL Abe Koroma Suspension Served missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-21 OL Ako Poti Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-10 DT Devon Still Ankle is out for the season.
2008-09-07 LB Jerome Hayes ACL out for the season
2008-09-01 S Nick Sukay Foot is expected to miss entire season
2008-08-01 DT Phillip Taylor Dismissed dismissed from team.
2008-08-01 DT Chris Baker Dismissed dismissed from team.
Pittsburgh U
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-04 LB Adam Gunn Concussion is expected to miss the season.
2008-08-12 DE Doug Fulmer Knee is expected to miss the season.
Purdue
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 LB Jason Werner Back downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-20 TE Kyle Adams Knee missed last game '?'
2008-08-19 RB Jaycen Taylor Knee is expected to miss the rest of the season.
Rice
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-17 CB Brandon King Foot is out for the season.
2008-09-09 LB Vernon James Knee out for the season
2008-09-09 LB Brian Raines Knee expected to miss 6 weeks.
Rutgers
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 DE George Johnson Ankle injured last game, "?".
2008-09-20 RB Kordell Young Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-12 DE Gary Watts Knee is out for the season.
San Diego State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 DE Ryan Williams Concussion is upgraded to probable
2008-09-22 S Corey Boudreaux Abdominal missed last game, probable
2008-09-22 OL Jerome Long Ankle missed last game, probable
2008-09-22 OL Siaosi Fifita Knee missed last game, probable
2008-09-22 DL Ernie Lawson Mononucleosis is expected to miss at least 3 weeks
2008-09-13 PR Davion Mauldin Foot missed last game '?'
2008-09-13 DE Erik Ikonne Ankle missed last game '?'
2008-09-13 PR Jose Perez Wrist missed last game '?'
2008-09-08 OL Neil Spencer Shoulder is expected to miss entire season
2008-09-03 DE Tony DeMartinis Knee is expected to miss the season.
San Jose State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 OL Ronnie Castillo Back missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 RB Patrick Perry Knee missed last game, '?'
2008-09-16 WR Kevin Jurovich Mononucleosis is out indefinitely.
SMU
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 WR Cole Loftin Collarbone expected to miss at least 6 weeks.
South Carolina
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 SS Chris Hall Suspension is expected to miss.
2008-09-23 WR Kenny McKinley Hamstring missed last game, downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-22 QB Tommy Beecher Shoulder out indefinitely
2008-09-22 OL Heath Batchelor Suspension expected to miss
2008-09-22 DE Jordin Lindsey Suspension expected to miss
2008-09-21 RB Mike Davis Suspension expected to miss
South Florida
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 DL Aaron Harris Undisclosed upgraded to probable
2008-09-24 CB Tyller Roberts Ankle upgraded to probable
2008-09-23 LB Alonzo McQueen Foot downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-21 WR Edner Alcin Foot left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 DL Terrell McClain Ankle left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 DE George Selvie Ankle left last game, probable
2008-09-20 CB Tyson Butler Ankle missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 NT Sampson Genus Ankle missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 LB Brouce Mompremier Neck out indefinitely
2008-09-20 DB Carlton Williams Hip left last game, "?"
2008-09-11 OG Zach Hermann Foot is expected to miss at least a month.
2008-08-07 OL Danny Tolley ACL is out indefinitely
Stanford
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 OL Gustav Rydstedt Concussion missed last game '?'
2008-09-01 DB Austin Yancy Hamstring out indefinitely
2008-09-01 WR Marcus Rance Knee out indefinitely
2008-08-07 OL Allen Smith Knee out for season
Syracuse
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 RB Delone Carter Hamstring missed last game, '?'
2008-09-13 LB Chad Battles Leg missed last game '?'
2008-08-23 K John Barker Suspension is out indefinitely
2008-08-12 WR Dan Sheeran Leg is out indefinitely.
2008-08-08 WR Mike Williams Academics is academically ineligible
2008-08-08 DE Brandon Gilbeaux Academics is academically ineligible
TCU
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 RB Ryan Christian Undisclosed limited last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-20 S Sir Demarco Bledsoe Suspension missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 S Tekerrein Cuba Personal missed last game '?'
2008-09-10 CB Jason Teague Knee is expected to miss 3-5 weeks.
Temple
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 QB Adam DiMichele Shoulder is expected to miss 3-6 weeks.
2008-09-20 DE Leyon Azubuike Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 LB Alex Joseph Undisclosed missed last game '?'
2008-09-05 CB Daryl Robinson Personal has left the team.
2008-09-03 DB Anthony Ferla Undisclosed will redshirt
Tennessee U
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 OL Vladmir Richard Knee is upgraded to probable
2008-09-20 S Daryl Vereen Knee missed last game is '?'
2008-09-15 FB David Holbert ACL is expected to miss entire season
2008-08-16 TE Jeff Cottam Back expected to miss 6-8 weeks
2008-08-08 DT Chase Nelson Knee is expected to miss the season.
2008-08-02 P Britton Colquitt Suspension is expected to miss first 5 games of season.
Texas
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 OL Charlie Tanner Ankle missed last game, '?'
2008-09-22 TE Blaine Irby Knee is expected to miss the rest of the season.
2008-09-22 RB Foswhitt Whittaker Knee missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 TE Ian Harris Neck missed last game, '?'
2008-09-01 TE Josh Marshall Shoulder out indefinitely
2008-09-01 DB Ishie Oduegwu Shoulder out indefinitely
Texas A&M
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 QB Stephen McGee Shoulder is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Army.
2008-09-23 QB Jerrod Johnson Shoulder upgraded to probable.
2008-09-21 RB Ryan Tannehill Ankle missed last game, '?'
2008-09-20 FB Anthony Vela Ankle missed last game '?'
2008-09-01 WR Roger Holland Concussion is expected to miss entire season
2008-08-29 RB Cornell Tarrant Personal has decided to transfer.
Toledo
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 CB Desmond Marrow Head upgraded to probable
2008-09-23 C Buster Garrett Leg expected to miss.
2008-09-23 RB DaJuane Collins Ankle left last game, upgraded to probable.
Troy
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 RB Chris Anderson Eligibility is out indefinitely
2008-09-22 WR Kennard Burton Ankle left last game, probable
2008-09-22 OL Tyler Clark Cramps left last game, probable
2008-09-22 DE Kenny Mainor Knee out for the season
Tulane
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 LG Tyler Rice Hamstring missed last game '?'
2008-09-17 S Alex Lauricella Knee expected to miss.
2008-09-15 WR Alan Mitchell Suspension is doubtful, will be eligible (9/25) vs. SMU
2008-08-31 OT Travis Olexa Knee expected to miss entire season
2008-08-07 RB Andre Agers Suspension is out indefinitely
Tulsa
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 RB Courtney Tennial Undisclosed missed last game '?'
UAB
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 DB Brandon Carlisle Knee missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-22 DT Tim Davis Undisclosed missed last game '?'
2008-09-17 TE Cory Powers None has left the team
2008-09-17 OL Ryan Roget Knee has left the team
2008-09-15 RB Aaron Johns Undisclosed expected to miss 2-5 weeks
2008-09-05 LB Terry Thomas Leg is out indefinitely
2008-08-29 LB Kyle Roget Hip is expected to miss entire season
2008-08-29 WR Sylvester Mencer Shoulder is expected to miss entire season
UCLA
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 TE Cory Harkey Ankle left last game, downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-24 DT Jerzy Siewierski Neck missed last game is, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 LB Kyle Bosworth Knee missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss.
2008-09-23 WR Marcus Everett Toe missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss.
2008-09-22 RB Kahlil Bell Ankle upgraded to probable
2008-09-22 WR Nelson Rosario Knee upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 LB John Hale Ankle left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 OL Micah Kia Back left last game, "?"
2008-09-20 C Micah Reed Knee missed last game is '?'
2008-09-20 RB Aundre Dean Ankle missed last game is '?'
2008-09-20 OL Sean Sheller Knee expected to miss entire season.
2008-09-03 TE Logan Paulsen Foot could miss the rest of the season.
2008-08-14 QB Patrick Cowan ACL expected to miss entire season
2008-08-11 QB Ben Olson Foot is expected to miss at least 8 weeks.
2008-07-28 WR Jamil Turner None has left the team.
2008-07-28 RB Christian Ramirez Academics is ineligible.
UL Lafayette
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 WR Lance Kelley Fibula is out indefinitely
2008-08-30 RB Deon Wallace Personal has left the team
UL Monroe
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-17 SS James Truxillo Knee is out for the season.
2008-08-31 WR LaGregory Sapp Academics out for the season
UNLV
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 RB David Peeples Foot is downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-23 OL Evan Marchal Ankle upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 TE Austin Harrington Leg missed last game, '?'
2008-09-10 LB Starr Fuimaono Knee is out for the season.
USC
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 LB Chris Galippo Undisclosed is expected to miss.
2008-09-23 CB Shareece Wright Neck is expected to miss up to 6 weeks.
2008-09-22 WR Patrick Turner Thigh is upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 WR Damian Williams Ankle upgraded to probable
2008-09-19 DE Kyle Moore Back is "?".
2008-09-07 C Michael Reardon Hip is out indefinitely
Utah
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 TE Brad Clifford Hip expected to miss
2008-09-17 LB Matt Martinez Bicep is out for the season.
2008-09-07 DT Lei Talamaivao Ankle is expected to miss entire season
2008-09-01 DT Kenape Eliapo Foot out 6-8 weeks
Utah State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-16 LB Jordan Glass Fibula is out for the season.
2008-09-05 TE Rob Myers Toe is expected to miss rest of the season.
2008-08-26 FB Jacob Actkinson Shoulder is expected to miss the season.
2008-08-12 QB Jase McCormick Personal has left the team.
UTEP
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 QB James Thomas None expected to start
2008-09-22 WR Jeff Moturi Hamstring is probable
2008-09-22 RB Donald Buckram Shoulder missed last game, probable
2008-09-22 RB Terrell Jackson Ankle missed last game, probable
2008-09-22 QB Trevor Vittatoe Ankle left last game, doubtful
2008-08-13 S Roddray Walker Shoulder is out indefinitely
2008-08-07 S Braxton Amy ACL expected to miss entire season
Vanderbilt
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-20 RB Jeff Jennings Shoulder missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 WR George Smith Foot missed last game '?'
2008-09-08 CB Darlon Spead Fibula out indefinitely.
2008-09-07 WR Chris Reinert Leg out for season
2008-09-02 WR John Cole Knee is expected to miss at least 8 weeks.
2008-08-15 DT Derrius Dowell Knee expected to miss entire season
2008-08-10 WR Alex Washington Knee expected to miss entire season
2008-08-02 RB Jermaine Doster Legal problems is suspended for 2008-2009 season.
Virginia
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-18 QB Peter Lalich Legal problems has been dismissed from team
Virginia Tech
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 QB Tyrod Taylor Foot upgraded to probable
2008-09-20 FB Kenny Younger Knee missed last game doubtful
2008-09-17 RB Ryan Williams None will redshirt.
2008-09-08 WR Zach Luckett Suspension is out indefinitely
2008-08-11 FS Ron Cooper ACL is expected to miss the season.
2008-07-17 WR Brandon Dillard ACL expected to miss entire season
Wake Forest
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-08-19 OL Ryan Britt Knee is out indefinitely.
Washington State
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 QB Marshall lobbestael None is expected to start.
2008-09-24 LB Jason Stripling Shoulder is out for the season.
2008-09-24 QB Kevin Lopina Back downgraded to expected to miss 2-6 weeks.
2008-09-21 DL Fevaea'i Ahmu Shoulder missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 LB Cory Evans Undisclosed missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 LB Kendrick Dunn Ankle missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 QB Gary Rogers Neck out for the season
2008-09-09 DE Jessy Sanchez Shoulder is out indefinitely.
2008-09-05 OL Andrew Roxas Knee expected to miss three to six weeks
2008-09-05 WR Keith Rosenberg Personal has left the team.
2008-08-27 OL Dan Rowlands Shoulder has left the team.
2008-08-27 DT Andy Roof Suspension has been dismissed from the team.
Washington U
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 S Victor Aiyewa Groin missed last game, "?".
2008-09-24 SS Jason Wells Knee missed last game, downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-23 TE Michael Gottlieb Hamstring missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 SS Darin Harris Concussion missed last game, downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-23 OL Mark Armelin Foot missed last game, downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-16 CB Byron Davenport Ankle missed last game, downgraded to doubtful.
2008-09-16 CB Quinton Richardson Knee is upgraded to probable
2008-09-12 RB Chris Polk Shoulder is out for the season.
2008-08-11 WR Curtis Shaw Personal has left the team, out indefinitely
2008-08-07 LB E.J. Savannah Eligibility expected to miss entire season
West Virginia
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 LB JT Thomas Head upgraded to probable.
2008-09-16 RB Zach Hulse Shoulder out indefinitely
Western Kentucky
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 QB KJ Black Shoulder missed last game, upgraded to probable.
2008-09-08 CB Rashad Etheridge Suspension is out indefinitely
Western Michigan
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-16 CB David Lewis Arm is out for the season.
2008-09-13 DT Cody Cielenski Disciplinary missed last game '?'
2008-09-05 WR Dervon Wallace Knee is out indefinitely
2008-08-23 WR Jordan White Knee expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
2008-08-19 OL Andy Laue None has left the team.
Wisconsin
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 DL Jason Chapman Thumb upgraded to probable.
2008-09-24 LB Jaevery McFadden Hand upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 RB John Clay Back upgraded to probable.
2008-09-23 CB Aaron Henry Knee missed last game, downgraded to expected to miss.
2008-08-31 DE Kirk DeCremer Back out for the season
Wyoming
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 WR David Leonard Concussion is "?".
2008-09-21 LB Matt Barella Shoulder left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 LB Joe Evers Ankle left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 OL Russ Arnold Ankle left last game, "?"
2008-09-20 LB Brian Hendricks Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-14 DL Anthony Wilson Eligibility out for season
2008-08-19 WR Brandon Stewart Shoulder is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
posted by phantom
Sept. 25 2008 2:23am -
0 likes
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
LIST OF PURELY NFL OVERRATED AND UNDERRATED TEAMS VERY SHORT
After a few weeks of play in any sport, I like to sit back and take stock of who the most overrated and underrated teams have been out of the gate. As an oddsmaker, I want to be in touch with any errors the markets are making about the caliber of teams. As a big bettor, I want to monitor those teams closely to see how much value might remain before the lines finally catch up.
Through three weeks of pro football action in 2008, you might be surprised to find out that only FOUR teams are either 3-0 or 0-3 so far.
3-0 AGAINST THE SPREAD:
Philadelphia
Tennessee
0-3 AGAINST THE SPREAD
Detroit
St. Louis
Considering there are 32 teams in the NFL, that’s a surprisingly low number. You’d have four of each flipping coins! To be fair, Baltimore and Houston are on the extreme ends of the scale too, but they’ve only played two games each because of the hurricane. Baltimore is 2-0 ATS (fortunate to play at home against two bad teams). Houston is 0-2 ATS (unfortunate to play on the road against two good teams).
Clearly Detroit and St. Louis have been the most overrated teams in football, even though several name franchises are off to slow starts. St. Louis has been slaughtered three games in a row, barely looking like an NFL team in the process. Detroit has been a huge disappointment too. At least they had a nice surge in the middle of their loss to Green Bay. St. Louis hasn’t had any surges.
Philadelphia and Tennessee are the most underrated team in terms of performing consistently. The Eagles only covered the Dallas game by a field goal, and the Pittsburgh game by about 5-6 points. Still, those are tough opponents and Philadelphia is really looking good in terms of playoff potential. The public was looking more at Dallas and the NY Giants as favorites in the NFC East heading into the season. Tennessee caught a schedule break in drawing Cincinnati and Houston. The win over Jacksonville was legitimate though.
I’d have to say that the bad teams have been bigger surprises than the good teams in terms of cover margins. Train wrecks can be dramatic that way.
Why are we seeing so many teams at 2-1 and 1-2 ATS? The pointspreads are supposed to turn games into technical coin flips according to Las Vegas lore. There are more 2-1 and 1-2 teams than even coin flips would suggest? Are the lines better than coin flips?
I don’t think that’s it. I’d attribute that to the following:
*Many teams have a tendency to emphasize certain games on the schedule. If you’re not a great team, it’s very hard to emphasize all the games in your first month of the season. That means you pick a spot to come hard, and allow a soft performance so you have plenty left in the tank for the latter stages of the season. We’ve seen several teams put up great results one week, then nothing the next. Or, vice versa. Think about Miami getting drilled in Arizona but then winning a blowout at New England.
*The lines are so high with good teams that it’s hard for them to cover every single week. You just can’t expect peak performances every time somebody like Dallas, Indianapolis, or the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants take the field. They’d have to win all games decisively to cover the spreads. That’s too big a task. And, there’s no reason anyway to go that hard in the first month of the season.
*Expectations are so low for bad teams that many are bound to beat those expectations at least one in three times. A break here or there, and a big dog hangs within the number. If they catch a flat favorite, they might even make a run at a straight up victory. Oakland and Cincinnati almost pulled off upsets as big dogs this past Sunday. Miami did. Emotional tendencies are in play on both ends of the spectrum.
*The public tends to overreact to what they watched the previous week, while the teams themselves are more likely to reverse an extreme performance. That means line movements are heading in the opposite direction of reality. Atlanta didn’t get any respect going into the Detroit game…got a lot of respect after beating Detroit…then lost that respect in the Tampa Bay loss just before the Kansas City game. The public was yo-yoing the wrong way. That’s happening all over the league.
*The public is incorrectly assessing personnel changes from last year. They thought the NY Jets would take a big step forward with Brett Favre. New York is 1-2 ATS and was almost 0-3 ATS. They thought the New Orleans Saints would turn into a contender in the NFC given their personnel moves. A season opening win vs. Tampa Bay tricked them into thinking they were right. New Orleans then lost at Washington, and had to scramble from way down before covering in a loss at Denver. The public fell in love with Aaron Rodgers just before he lost badly to Dallas.
*The public loves betting on playoff teams. Many of last year’s playoff teams are dealing with injuries that make it impossible to cover consistently. But those teams have enough talent to avoid getting skunked too. Indianapolis found a win to win at Minnesota. Jacksonville finally got on the board at Indianapolis. New England isn’t looking great, but got the money on the road against the Jets.
If you’re trying to pick winners this weekend, all of these reversals in form should be weighing heavily on your mind. It’s very important that you see what’s going on here. You can’t just ride hot teams or go against cold teams every week. Those words barely mean anything right now except in a few instances. And, those instances might disappear once media bandwagons start with Philadelphia and Tennessee.
The most important key is to avoid overreacting to something you saw last week. Dallas looked great at Green Bay. Are they going to cover again? They didn’t cover the week after looking great at Cleveland. Have you given up on Pittsburgh after two bad games? Maybe they’re about to get moving again.
DNow that almost everyone has played three games with varying degrees of success, you can go through the results and pin down what a “good†performance means, and what a “bad†performance means. The New York Giants can blow out bad teams (like St. Louis). But, if they’re not focused they can find themselves in overtime with somebody like Cincinnati. You need to see that scale of possibilities for all 32 teams.
Then, do your best to figure out which end of the scale each team is most likely to be on this weekend. I think a lot of stat handicappers will have trouble in these early weeks because they keep picking off “averages†and “projections†when teams hardly ever play an average game. There’s not much consistency, and stat guys need consistency to pick winners. If a team wins a lot of their games by 7 points, you can do something with that. If they keep alternating between 17-point wins and 3-point losses, then the average doesn’t get you anywhere. You need to figure out what’s causing the extremes. You might find it odd that a bunch of 2-1 or 1-2 ATS records is signaling anything meaningful. I believe it is. The results are more random than coin flips! Yeah, it’s asmall sample size. And some math guys might argue with how I characterized that. As handicappers, you need to realize how extreme performances can be from week to week. And, you have to avoid the mistakes the public is making that helps cause the pointspreads to miss the mark by so much.
posted by phantom
Sept. 25 2008 2:24am -
0 likes
nfl injury update
Arizona
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 TE Jerame Tuman Hamstring is upgraded to probable
2008-09-22 DL Bertrand Berry Groin is upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 OT Gabriel Watson Knee missed last game, '?'.
2008-09-01 C Al Johnson Knee I.R.
Atlanta
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 WR Laurent Robinson Knee left last game, "?"
2008-09-22 OT Sam Baker Dizziness left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 C Alex Stepanovich Back missed last game, '?'
2008-08-30 RB Thomas Brown Leg IR
2008-07-28 CB Von Hutchins Foot IR
Baltimore
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 CB Samari Rolle Shoulder is "?".
2008-09-24 LB Nick Greisen Quad is "?"
2008-09-22 SS Dawan Landry Neck is out indefinitely
2008-09-19 DT Kelly Gregg Knee is expected to miss at least 2 weeks
2008-09-03 QB Kyle Boller Shoulder IR
2008-08-26 NT Kelly Talavou Shoulder IR.
2008-08-26 DT Dwan Edwards Back IR.
2008-08-12 LB Prescott Burgess Wrist IR
2008-08-12 RB P.J. Daniels Shoulder IR
2008-07-25 TE Quinn Sypniewski Knee IR
Buffalo
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 WR Roscoe Parrish Finger expected to miss 4-6 weeks
2008-09-22 FB Darian Barnes Foot is upgraded to probable
2008-09-04 LB Angelo Crowell Knee IR
2008-08-26 TE Derek Fine Thumb is out indefinitely
Carolina
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 LB Dan Connor Knee expected to miss the rest of the season
2008-09-21 WR Ryne Robinson Knee missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 G Travelle Wharton Knee missed last game, '?'
2008-09-03 QB Matt Moore Leg is out 4-6 weeks.
Chicago
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 DT Tommie Harris Knee is "?"
2008-09-24 DE Alex Brown Ankle is "?"
2008-09-21 PR/KR Devin Hester Ribs missed last game, '?'
2008-09-17 CB Brandon McGowan Ankle IR
2008-08-07 OT Chris Williams Back is out indefinitely
Cincinnati
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 TE Ben Utecht Chest missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 SS Dexter Jackson Thumb missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 S Herana-Daze Jones Hamstring missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 CB Johnathan Joseph Ankle missed last game, '?'
2008-09-04 RB Jeremi Johnson Knee IR
2008-08-31 WR Chris Henry Suspension expected to miss first four games
Cleveland
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 LB Willie McGinest Hamstring missed last game '?'
2008-09-21 G Eric Steinback Shoulder missed last game '?'
2008-09-21 OG Ryan Tucker Hip missed last game '?'
2008-09-20 WR Donte' Stallworth Quad missed last game '?'
2008-09-15 DE Robaire Smith Achilles IR
2008-09-10 SS Sean Jones Knee is expected to miss at least four weeks.
2008-09-04 LB Antwan Peek Knee expected to miss rest of season.
2008-08-30 OG Lennie Friedman Shoulder IR
2008-08-28 WR Joe Jurevicius Knee is expected to miss first 6 games.
2008-07-25 CB Daven Holly Knee IR
Dallas
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 WR Sam Hurd Ankle is upgraded to probable
2008-09-22 OG Kyle Kosier Foot expected to miss two to three weeks
2008-09-22 S Pat Watkins Shoulder left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 LB Anthony Spencer Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-17 FB Deon Anderson Knee is expected to miss at least 2 weeks
2008-09-16 SS Roy Williams Forearm is expected to miss at least 3 weeks.
Denver
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 S Marlon McCree Neck is upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 WR Darrell Jackson Calf missed last game '?'
2008-09-21 C Tom Nalen Knee IR
2008-08-29 RB Anthony Alridge Hamstring IR
2008-08-27 DT Carlton Powell Knee expected to miss at least six weeks.
2008-08-07 RB Ryan Torain Elbow expected to miss up to 3 months
Detroit
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 OG Stephen Peterman Hand injured last game, doubtful
2008-09-21 QB Jon Kitna Knee injured last game, "?"
2008-09-09 TE Dan Campbell Hamstring IR
2008-09-04 CB Stanley Wilson Achilles IR
2008-08-31 WR Aveion Cason Ankle IR
2008-08-20 FB Jon Bradley Shoulder IR
Green Bay
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 WR James Jones Knee left last game, "?"
2008-09-22 S Nick Collins Back left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 CB Al Harris Spleen is out indefinitely
2008-09-21 SS Atari Bigby Hamstring missed last game '?'
2008-09-21 FB Korey Hall Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-21 OG Josh Sitton Knee missed last game '?'
2008-08-30 LS JJ Jansen Knee IR
2008-08-25 DT Justin Harrell Back is expected to miss first 6 games
Houston Texans
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 TE Mark Bruener Hamstring missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 RB Ahman Green Ankle missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 DT Travis Johnson Knee missed last game, '?'
2008-09-11 DE Stanley McClover Knee IR
2008-08-30 RB Chris Brown Back IR
2008-08-26 OL Scott Jackson Plantar Fasciitis IR
2008-08-26 CB Dunta Robinson Knee expected to miss at least six weeks.
2008-08-22 WR Harry Williams Neck IR
2008-08-18 OG Fred Weary Leg IR
2008-08-05 CB Jimmy Williams Knee IR
Indianapolis
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 G Dan Federkeil Ribs injured last game, "?"
2008-09-21 WR Roy Hall Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-21 OT Tony Ugoh Groin missed last game '?'
2008-09-17 S Bob Sanders Ankle is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.
2008-09-10 DE Mike Pollak Knee expected to miss at least 4 weeks.
2008-08-25 CB T.J. Rushing Knee IR
2008-08-13 CB Michael Coe Knee IR
2008-08-09 OG Ryan Lilja Knee expected to miss at least six weeks.
2008-08-02 LB Tyjuan Hagler Pectoral expected to miss at least six weeks.
Jacksonville
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 CB Scott Starks Knee IR
2008-09-22 WR Dennis Northcutt Leg left last game, "?"
2008-09-22 S Reggie Nelson Knee left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 WR Jerry Porter Hamstring missed last game '?'
2008-09-21 LB Justin Durant Leg missed last game '?'
2008-09-08 OG Maurice Williams Bicep IR
2008-09-08 OG Vince Manuwai Knee IR
2008-09-02 OT Richard Collier Upper Body reserve/non-football injury list
2008-08-09 C Brad Meester Bicep is expected to miss 8-10 weeks.
Kansas City
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 QB Damon Huard None is expected to start
2008-09-21 CB Patrick Surtain Shoulder missed last game, '?'
2008-09-07 QB Brodie Croyle Shoulder out indefinitely
2008-08-27 WR Kevin Robinson Knee expected to miss at least six weeks.
Miami
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-10 OG Donald Thomas Ankle IR
2008-07-27 WR Tab Perry Achilles IR
Minnesota
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 WR Sidney Rice Knee is upgraded to probable
2008-09-24 LB Vinny Ciurciu Knee is upgraded to probable
2008-08-19 DT Kenderick Allen Wrist IR
2008-08-16 DE Kenechi Udeze Illness expected to miss entire season
2008-08-15 S Madieu Williams Neck is expected to miss 6 weeks.
2008-08-14 OT Bryant McKinnie Suspension expected to miss 4 games.
2008-08-11 LB Heath Farwell Knee IR
2008-08-09 DE Jayme Mitchell Knee IR
New England
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 C Dan Connolly Knee missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 RB Laurence Maroney Shoulder missed last game, '?'.
2008-09-07 QB Tom Brady Knee IR
2008-08-09 S Tank Williams Knee IR.
New Orleans
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 OG Jamar Nesbit Suspension has been suspended for 4 games
2008-09-22 LB Scott Fujita Knee missed last game is '?'
2008-09-22 TE Jeremy Shockey Hernia expected to miss 3-6 weeks.
2008-09-22 OT Jammal Brown Hip left last game, "?"
2008-09-22 CB Randall Gay Hamstring left last game, "?"
2008-09-22 WR David Patten Groin left last game, "?"
2008-09-22 TE Mark Campbell Hamstring missed last game, "?"
2008-09-21 DB Aaron Glenn Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-21 DT Antwan Lake Groin missed last game '?'
2008-09-21 RB Aaron Stecker Hamstring missed last game '?'
2008-09-12 LB Mark Simoneau Back IR
2008-09-10 WR Marques Colston Thumb expected to miss 4-6 weeks
NY Giants
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 WR Plaxico Burress Suspension expected to miss 1 game
2008-09-21 CB R.W. McQuarters Calf missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 CB Terrell Thomas Hamstring missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 K Lawrence Tynes Leg missed last game, '?'
2008-08-26 DE Osi Umenyiora Knee IR
2008-08-26 WR David Tyree Knee expected to miss at least six weeks.
2008-08-14 G Shane Olivea Back IR
NY Jets
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 QB Brett Favre Ankle is probable.
2008-09-22 NT Kris Jenkins Back is upgraded to probable
2008-09-22 P Reggie Hodges Thigh is downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-22 CB Justin Miller Toe missed last game '?'
2008-09-22 K Mike Nugent Leg missed last game '?'
2008-09-04 S Cameron Worrell Knee IR
2008-09-04 WR David Clowny Collarbone is out indefinitely
2008-08-31 RB Jesse Chatman Suspension expected to miss first four games
2008-08-10 LB Brad Kassell Knee IR
Oakland
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 OG Cooper Carlisle Ankle is downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-22 RB Justin Fargas Groin is downgraded to expected to miss
2008-09-22 DT Gerard Warren Neck left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 OT Kwame Harris Leg missed last game, '?'
2008-09-10 OL Paul McQuistan Knee IR
2008-08-24 RB Oren O'Neal Knee IR
Philadelphia
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 QB Donovan McNabb Ribs is probable.
2008-09-22 TE L.J. Smith Back left last game, "?"
2008-09-22 RB Tony Hunt Concussion is upgraded to probable
2008-09-21 RB Brian Westbrook Ankle left last game '?'
2008-09-21 OG Shawn Andrews Back missed last game '?'
2008-08-27 CB Jack Ikegwuonu Knee IR
2008-08-20 WR Kevin Curtis Hernia expected to miss 6-8 weeks
Pittsburgh
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 LB Donovan Woods Hamstring expected to miss
2008-09-23 RB Willie Parker Knee is expected to miss
2008-09-22 DT Casey Hampton Groin expected to miss.
2008-09-21 QB Ben Roethlisberger Hand left last game '?'
2008-09-21 CB Deshea Townsend Heel missed last game '?'
2008-09-15 DE Brett Keisel Calf expected to miss up to two months
2008-08-30 QB Charlie Batch Collarbone IR
2008-07-30 P Daniel Sepulveda Knee IR
San Diego
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 C Nick Hardwick Foot missed last game '?'
2008-09-10 LB Shawne Merriman Knee IR
2008-07-25 LB Stephen Cooper Suspension expected to miss first 4 games
San Francisco
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 OT Jonas Jennings Shoulder expected to miss
2008-09-24 S Dashon Goldson Shoulder left last game, "?"
2008-09-24 CB Shawntae Spencer Knee IR
2008-09-07 QB Alex Smith Shoulder IR
Seattle
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-21 RB Maurice Morris Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-21 WR Koren Robinson Knee missed last game '?'
2008-09-15 WR Logan Payne Knee IR
2008-09-15 QB Seneca Wallace Calf expected to miss three to four weeks
2008-09-15 WR Deion Branch Knee is out indefinitely
2008-09-09 RG Rob Sims Pectoral IR
2008-09-08 WR Nate Burleson Knee IR
2008-08-31 WR Ben Obomanu Shoulder IR
2008-08-24 WR Bobby Engram Shoulder out indefinitely
2008-08-06 LB Wesley Mallard Knee IR.
St. Louis
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-23 QB Trent Green None is expected to start
2008-09-23 OL Jacob Bell Hamstring is upgraded to probable
2008-09-23 DE Leonard Little Hamstring is upgraded to probable
2008-09-23 OT Orlando Pace Groin is "?"
2008-09-22 RB Antonio Pittman Leg is downgraded to expected to miss four to six weeks
2008-09-08 WR Drew Bennett Foot expected to miss up to six weeks
2008-08-18 OT Brandon Gorin Shoulder IR
2008-08-17 OL Mark Setterstrom Knee IR
2008-08-16 CB Justin King Toe IR
Tampa Bay
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 OG Davin Joseph Foot is upgraded to probable
2008-09-24 PK Matt Bryant Personal is "?"
2008-09-23 WR Joey Galloway Foot is downgraded to doubtful
2008-09-22 DL Ryan Sims Hamstring left last game, "?"
2008-09-22 FB B.J. Askew Hamstring left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 CB Aqib Talib Hamstring missed last game, '?'
2008-08-28 RB Carnell Williams Knee is expected to miss first 6 games.
Tennessee
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-22 CB Nick Harper Quad left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 WR Justin Gage Groin missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 DE Jacob Ford Sternum missed last game, '?'
2008-09-07 QB Vince Young Knee downgraded to out 2-4 weeks
Washington
Date Pos Player Injury Status
2008-09-24 FB Mike Sellers Quad is "?"
2008-09-22 DE Jason Taylor Calf is expected to miss.
2008-09-22 WR James Thrash Ankle missed last game , "?"
2008-09-21 OL Stephon Heyer Shoulder left last game, "?"
2008-09-21 DE Erasmus James Knee missed last game, '?'
2008-09-21 WR Malcolm Kelly Ankle missed last game, '?'
2008-09-04 DE Alex Buzbee Achilles IR
2008-07-21 LB Phillip Daniels Knee IR
posted by phantom
Sept. 25 2008 2:25am -
0 likes
INJURY REPORT
NFL Football
Arizona Cardinals
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 3:06:55 PM Gabe Watson DT kneecap questionable Watson (kneecap) may not return until Week 5, according to the Arizona Republic. He has only participated in three full practices since fracturing his kneecap in April, so the Cardinals are easing him back into action. Once he is 100 percent, Watson will have minimal fantasy value as a part-time nose tackle.
9/22/2008 3:05:16 PM Jerame Tuman TE hamstring questionable Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is optimistic that Tuman (hamstring) will be able to play in Week 4, according to the Arizona Republic. Tuman is mainly a blocker and he has very little fantasy significance.
9/22/2008 3:04:05 PM Bertrand Berry DE groin questionable The Cardinals are optimistic that Berry (groin) will be able to play in Week 4, according to the Arizona Republic. He did some jogging on Monday. Berry's prognosis is favorable, but you'll want to check back later in the week to make sure that he will play on Sunday.
9/22/2008 11:24:24 AM Steve Breaston WR hamstring probable Breaston (hamstring) is struggling as a returner and the Cardinals might give J.J. Arrington a chance, according to the Arizona Republic. This is just speculation and the article points out that Arizona's return team hasn't done a very good job of blocking for Breaston this season. Breaston is only averaging 18.8 yards per kickoff return and 7.6 yards per punt return this season, so it's possible that Arizona will give someone like Arrington a chance to do better. This would be a big blow to Breaston's value, because he isn't receiving many targets as a receiver.
Atlanta Falcons
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 7:25:56 PM Laurent Robinson WR knee questionable Robinson (knee) has been diagnosed with a knee sprain, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. Robinson typically plays in four wide receiver sets and is at his best when he can spread the offense deep with his speed and agility. Obviously this knee injury, though severity unknown, is going to present a major problem in his playing ability and could keep Robinson on the shelf for more than just a week. We wish Robinson a quick recovery, but slot receiver Harry Douglas' fantasy stock increases with this injury.
Baltimore Ravens
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 8:52:57 PM Willis McGahee RB Eye probable McGahee may be limited in practice this week due to a cut on his right eyelid, the Baltimore Sun reports. It's starting to seem like McGahee is looking for any reason he can to miss practice time. Regardless, expect McGahee to be ready for Monday night's game against Pittsburgh in a similar timeshare role he played with Le'Ron McClain and rookie Ray Rice on Sunday.
9/23/2008 8:46:37 PM Dawan Landry S Head questionable Landry (spine) is expected to return this season after being carted off the field on Sunday, the Baltimore Sun reports. "His stability tests are all normal," Head coach John Harbaugh said. "He will be in a cervical collar for at least a week, and then they'll evaluate him further and then we'll just take it from there. He'll be playing in some number of weeks, and it won't be too many weeks." Landry was on the ground for nearly ten minutes after taking a Jamal Lewis knee to the head near the end of the first half of Baltimore's win over Cleveland.
9/23/2008 8:39:45 PM Yamon Figurs WR Hamstring probable Figurs plans to play in Monday night's game against the Steelers, the Baltimore Sun reports. Figurs biggest impact is clearly in the return game. His speed makes him a potential home run threat at wideout, but don't expect to see many targets his way.
9/23/2008 8:35:43 PM Samari Rolle CB Shoulder probable Rolle plans to play Monday night against the Steelers after injuring his right shoulder in Sunday's win over Cleveland, the Baltimore Sun reports. Rolle plans to practice Wednesday despite the soreness in his shoulder. Expect him to trot out onto the field against Pittsburgh.
Buffalo Bills
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 7:50:23 AM Darian Barnes FB questionable Barnes injured his right foot during the first half of Sunday's win over the Raiders and did not return. He was on crutches and wearing a walking boot in the locker room, The Buffalo News reports. Barnes said he has no idea how badly the foot is injured, but should know more in the next day or two. "It's still a lot of swelling," he said. Barnes was having a good game before the injury, making a few strong plays. He's the only true fullback on the roster, so if he needs to miss some time the Bills might have to look at bringing Jonathan Evans back or moving a tight end into a hybrid role.
Carolina Panthers
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 4:13:19 PM Dan Connor LB Out Connor will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL in his left knee, the Associated Press reports. The third-rounder had played on special teams in the first three games, but it's a tough blow to the Panthers' linebacker depth since it was hoped that Connor could evolve into a regular contributor this year.
9/22/2008 3:54:52 PM Ryne Robinson WR knee questionable Robinson (knee) is expected to practice on Wednesday and he could make his season debut on Sunday, the Panthers' official site reports. We'll revisit his status later in the week.
9/22/2008 3:51:50 PM Charles Johnson DE probable Johnson, who recorded his first sack of the season in Week 1, is day-to-day with a hamstring injury, the Panthers' official site reports. It doesn't sound like anything serious, so we expect him to play in Week 4. Beyond that, Tyler Brayton also had a decent game on Sunday, so Johnson will likely share time with him against Atlanta regardless of how healthy he is.
Cincinnati Bengals
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 11:08:26 AM Ben Utecht TE Ribs questionable Utecht (sternum) worked out vigorously before Sunday's game and lifted weights on Monday, but left both feeling short of breath, Bengals.com reports. It doesn't look too good for him to play on Sunday against the Browns.
9/23/2008 10:38:40 AM Jonathan Joseph CB ankle questionable The Bengals seem optimistic that Joseph (ankle) will play this week against the Browns, Bengals.com reports. We'll have a better idea about Joseph's status following Wednesday's practice. The Bengals' secondary did much better than expected in light of Joseph and Dexter Jackson's absences.
Cleveland Browns
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 11:59:31 PM Eric Steinbach G shoulder questionable Steinbach (shoulder) will not require surgery on his rotator cuff, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. He has not been ruled out for Sunday's game of Cincinnati yet, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him take another week and show up after the week five bye week.
Dallas Cowboys
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 11:19:41 AM Felix Jones RB Calf probable Jones had his right calf heavily wrapped after Sunday's win over the Packers, the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram reports. The injury isn't thought to be serious, but we should have a better idea of Jones' status after the team returns to practice on Wednesday.
9/23/2008 11:14:30 AM Kyle Kosier G Foot Out Kosier re-injured his right foot in Sinday's win over the Packers, and will be out for another 2-3 weeks, the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram reports. The Cowboys offensive line didn't skip a beat while he was out before, so don't expect there to be much of an impact from his absence this time either.
9/22/2008 11:25:09 AM Miles Austin WR probable Austin caught one 52-yard TD pass, and had another 63-yard reception, in Dallas' win over Green Bay Sunday. Those were the only two passes he pulled down, but that was plenty. Austin's speed should allow him to hang onto the #3 WR job even when the other options, such as Sam Hurd, get healthy, and the Cowboys' passing attack is potent enough that he should have a little value in deeper fantasy leagues.
Denver Broncos
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 5:04:22 PM Tom Nalen C Knee IR Nalen was placed on injured reserve with a left knee injury on Tuesday. A five-time Pro Bowl selection, Nalen was in his 15th season with the team. He was unable to bounce back from two surgical procedures on his knee prior to the season, and failed to appear in a game this season.
Green Bay Packers
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 4:01:14 PM Al Harris CB blood in urine doubtful Harris (blood in urine) may have ruptured his spleen during Sunday's loss to the Cowboys and could miss the season, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Not having Harris would be a big blow to the Packers defense. Harris will get a second opinion, but things don't look to bright for him right now.
9/22/2008 3:36:28 PM James Jones WR probable Jones dropped the only two passes thrown his way on Sunday and then left with knee and wrist injuries. Jones is slowly dropping down behind Jordy Nelson on the depth chart, mainly due to a number of dropped passes this season. He'll still see time with Ruvell Martin out, but don't expect much fantasy production.
9/22/2008 3:08:53 PM Nick Barnett LB probable Barnett suffered an elbow sprain during Sunday's loss and recorded just five tackles. Barnett was on and off the field at various times during the night due to the injury. He's usually more productive than five tackles so the injury may have affected his play.
9/22/2008 2:55:00 PM Ryan Grant RB hamstring probable Grant (hamstring) rushed 13 times for 54 yards in Sunday's loss to the Cowboys. Grant has been hampered by a hamstring injury and an ineffective Green Bay running game overall. The Packers started out this way last season and were able to turn it around so there is still some hope that Grant can be productive this year.
Houston Texans
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 9:22:01 PM Ahman Green RB ankle questionable Texans head coach Gary Kubiak said Green (ankle) should practice this week, the Texans' official site reports. "I expect him to practice this week, but it has been awhile so we'll see how he does. But I do expect him to practice," said Kubiak. With the early season success of Steve Slaton, the Texans will not rush Green, who may have lost his starting job to the rookie.
posted by phantom
Sept. 25 2008 2:26am -
0 likes
Jacksonville Jaguars
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 8:46:46 AM Reggie Nelson S questionable Nelson's knee injury is not serious, Jags coach Jack Del Rio told the Florida Times-Union. Expect Nelson to play on Sunday.
9/23/2008 8:45:47 AM Dennis Northcutt WR questionable Northcutt's hip flexor injury is not serious, Jags coach Jack Del Rio told the Florida Times-Union. Northcutt should be set to play on Sunday, though his touches may be limited if Jerry Porter returns.
9/22/2008 3:43:01 AM Brian Williams S probable Williams had five tackles and an interception in the Jags' 23-21 win over the Colts on Sunday. Williams is the top IDP player on a stout Jags defense, especially in leagues that count tackles.
9/22/2008 3:37:26 AM Fred Taylor RB toe probable Taylor (toe) had a huge game in Sunday's 23-21 win over the Colts, rushing for 121 yards on 26 carries, and catching two passes for nine yards. The Jags finally figured out on Sunday that to win, they'll have to feature Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew in heavy doses. Expect this to be a trend for the Jags.
New Orleans Saints
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 6:12:42 PM Jamar Nesbit G Suspension Out Nesbit has been suspended four games without pay for for violating the league's policy on anabolic steroids and related substances. The suspension begins immediately for Nesbit, who will be eligible to return to the Saints' active roster following the team's October 19 game against the Carolina Panthers. Nesbit will be unable to participate in team activities until the week of October 20. New Orleans heads to London that week to face the San Diego Chargers in Wembley Stadium on October 26.
9/22/2008 4:51:19 PM Mark Campbell TE questionable With reports that Jeremy Shockey will miss three to six weeks after undergoing sports hernia surgery, Campbell's fantasy value gets a boost. Campbell missed last Sunday's game with a hamstring injury, and his availability for this weekend's contest against San Francisco is unclear. Even if he is healthy enough to play, however, he is likely to split time with Billy Miller. Unless either Campbell or Miller can establish themselves as the team's clear No. 1 tight end while Shockey is out, it's best to steer clear of both of them for fantasy purposes.
9/22/2008 4:34:25 PM Jeremy Shockey TE Out Shockey will have sports hernia surgery this week and is expected to miss three to six weeks, the Times-Picayune reports. The injury has reportedly been bothering Shockey for weeks, but it was aggravated in Sunday's loss to the Broncos.
9/22/2008 2:28:14 PM Randall Gay CB questionable Gay left Sunday's game with a hamstring injury, the Times-Picayune reports. Gay was recovering from a hamstring injury prior to Sunday's game, so it seems likely that he re-aggravated the injury. Even when healthy, Gay's role in the defense is likely to be reduced now that Mike McKenzie (knee) has returned to action.
9/22/2008 2:17:09 PM David Patten WR questionable Patten left Sunday's against the Broncos with a strained groin, the Times-Picayune reports. Patten's injury helps explain his poor performance (two catches for 12 yards) in Sunday's game. Patten's status for this weekend's contest is unclear. Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem's value would get a boost if Patten missed the game.
New York Jets
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 6:18:57 PM Brett Favre QB Ankle probable Favre (ankle) expects to play Sunday against Arizona, the Associated Press reports. Mangini didn't seem concerned about Favre's injury, saying "Brett usually plays, and I would anticipate the same ."
9/22/2008 11:55:39 PM Laveranues Coles WR thigh probable Coles (thigh) had six catches for 75 yards and a touchdown in Monday's loss at San Diego. He continues to look better and better every week, as he gets more comfortable with Brett Favre.
9/22/2008 7:38:07 PM Justin Miller CB foot inactive Miller (foot) is inactive for Monday's game against the Chargers. We'll check back on his status next week.
Oakland Raiders
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 10:38:25 AM Darren McFadden RB probable Head coach Lane Kiffin said he expects McFadden's turf toe to clear up this week, the Santa Rosa Press Democrat reports. McFadden claims that his toe injury wasn't a factor on Sunday, but he slipped several times before getting touched and went through three pairs of cleats. A healthy McFadden is obviously a better McFadden, so hopefully Kiffin's prognosis is correct.
9/23/2008 10:32:59 AM Derrick Burgess DE questionable Burgess injured his triceps in the Raiders' loss to the Bills on Sunday, the Santa Rosa Press Democrat reports. Burgess underwent an MRI exam on Monday and the results of the exam should be available in the next couple days.
9/23/2008 10:30:54 AM Gerard Warren DT Out Warren suffered a torn pectoral muscle in the Raiders' loss to the Bills on Sunday, the Oakland Tribune reports. Warren has been Oakland's best interior defender and his loss could really hurt the Raiders' run defense. Terdell Sands will likely take Warren's spot in the starting lineup while he's out.
9/23/2008 10:30:54 AM Cooper Carlisle G questionable Carlisle suffered an ankle injury in the Raiders' loss to the Bills on Sunday, the Oakland Tribune reports. Carlisle may not practice this week. His status for next Sunday's game is uncertain at this point. Chris Morris will start at guard if Carlisle is unable to play next Sunday.
9/22/2008 11:02:27 AM Javon Walker WR probable Walker caught his first two passes of the season in the Raiders' loss to the Bills on Sunday, the Oakland Tribune reports. Walker caught the two passes early on and then didn't catch another for the rest of the afternoon. It looks like it take some time for Walker to develop into a contributing fantasy performer again.
Philadelphia Eagles
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 2:43:54 PM Shawn Andrews OT back questionable It dose not sound as if Andrews (back) is close to returning to the lineup, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Coach Andy Reid said Andrews' lower back injury has not improved. Max Jean-Gilles replaced him Sunday.
9/22/2008 2:41:43 PM Donovan McNabb QB chest probable Coach Andy Reid expects McNabb (chest) to be ready to play Week 4 against the Bears, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. It sounds like McNabb and the offense will be without Brian Westbrook (ankle), so he may be asked to throw even more than usual as long as his health permits.
9/22/2008 2:30:59 PM Kevin Curtis WR sports hernia inactive Curtis (sports hernia) is expected to work with the scout team this week, the Eagles' official site reports. There's still no timetable for Curtis' return, but we should have a better idea where he is after he practices with the scout team this week.
9/22/2008 1:16:18 PM Brian Westbrook RB questionable An MRI Monday revealed no tears or structural damage to Westbrook's ankle, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. The team is calling the injury a strain, and labeling his status as day-to-day. Eagles coach Andy Reid said that Westrbook is no longer using crutches to walk, though he does have a limp. It seems like a decision on Westbrook's availability may not come until Sunday, so make sure you have a contingency plan if he's unavailable. Correll Buckhalter will get the carries out of the Philly backfield if Westbrook is on the shelf.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 6:15:38 PM Brett Keisel DE Calf Out Keisel will miss his second consecutive game Monday night against Baltimore, the Associated Press reports. Not a surprise, Keisel will likely miss at least 1-2 more games.
9/23/2008 12:25:53 PM Ben Roethlisberger QB Hand probable The Steelers expect Roethlisberger (hand, shoulder) to play against Baltimore Monday night. Coach Mike Tomlin did not list Roethlisberger among the team's injured players during his press conference on Tuesday. He did, however, say that the Steelers QB could be limited in practice early in the week.
9/23/2008 12:16:55 PM Casey Hampton DT Groin Out Hampton will miss Monday's game against Baltimore with a strained groin, according to coach Mike Tomlin. Hampton is the rock of a Pittsburgh defensive line that has little depth. Chris Hoke will replace Hampton with Travis Kirschke serving as his backup.
9/23/2008 12:12:54 PM Willie Parker RB Knee Out Parker will not play Monday night against the Ravens because of a sprained left knee, coach Mike Tomlin said at his press conference on Tuesday. Parker was injured late in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss to Philadelphia. Tomlin saidthat rookie Rashard Mendenhall will serve as Pittsburgh's primary back in Parker's absence.
San Diego Chargers
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 6:32:20 PM Luis Castillo DE Knee probable Castillo took a shot to the knees during the Jets game on Monday night, the Associated Press reports. Castillo returned after the hit and is expected to be fine. An MRI on Tuesday revealed no damage.
9/23/2008 12:47:05 PM LaDainian Tomlinson RB Toe probable Tomlinson stated that his toe felt good after San Diego's game on Monday night and that he may be able to get a full week of practice in, the San Diego Union Tribune reports. While we'd still guess he's given a lighter work load in practice this week, it seems like he should be near 100 percent healthy for the Chargers' Week 4 matchup against the Raiders, barring a setback.
9/22/2008 7:24:55 PM Darren Sproles RB hamstring probable Sproles (hamstring) is listed as active for Monday's game against the Jets. LaDainian Tomlinson is listed as active too, but we expect to see Sproles get his share of the carries, if not a majority, depending on how Tomlinson feels. In fact, ESPN reports that Sproles will have his return duties scaled back so that he can focus on being in on the offense.
San Francisco 49ers
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 7:47:46 PM Shawntae Spencer CB Knee IR Spencer will miss the rest of the season with a torn ligament in his left knee, the Associated Press reports. Spencer injured the knee during the 49ers' Sept. 14 win over the Seahawks. He underwent surgery last Wednesday. Tarell Brown or Donald Strickland will step up to fill the vacant third cornerback spot.
St. Louis Rams
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 9:06:44 PM Antonio Pittman RB Out Pittman will be sidelined the next 4-to-6 weeks with a cracked fibula, the Sports Network Sports Network reports. As a result of Pittman's injury, Brian Leonard will step into the Rams' backup RB role behind Steven Jackson.
posted by phantom
Sept. 25 2008 2:27am -
0 likes
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 12:28:28 PM Derrick Brooks LB hamstring probable Brooks (hamstring) had four tackles for Tampa Bay on Sunday. For the second straight week, Brooks did not practice but was able to play on Sunday.
9/22/2008 12:27:41 PM Aqib Talib CB hamstring questionable Talib (hamstring) is questionable for Tampa Bay against Green Bay on Sunday, the St. Petersburg Times reports. Talib had to sit out Sunday's game at Chicago due to the injury.
9/22/2008 12:27:05 PM Ryan Sims DT questionable Sims suffered a hamstring strain in Sunday's Buccaneers-Bears game. Sims registered no tackles or sacks on Sunday, and it's not clear if he left the game due to the injury. Still, he's questionable for Sunday's game against the Packers.
9/22/2008 12:04:05 PM Joey Galloway WR foot questionable Galloway (foot) is still questionable for Tampa Bay going into Sunday's game against Green Bay, the St. Petersburg Times reports. Galloway did not make the trip to Sunday's game at Chicago due to the injury. Antonio Bryant had a big game in Galloway's place on Sunday, with Mike Clayton and Ike Hilliard both contributing as well, so the Bucs may not feel forced to rush Galloway back.
9/22/2008 11:58:37 AM B.J. Askew FB questionable Askew suffered a hamstring strain in Sunday's Buccaneers-Bears game, the St. Petersburg Times reports. He's questionable for Tampa Bay's Week 4 contest against Green Bay. Askew had no carries and two receptions for 18 yards (three targets) for the Bucs on Sunday before suffering the injury early in the overtime period. Askew was limited all through camp with a foot injury that required minor surgery, so we may be seeing a cascade effect here.
Tennessee Titans
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/23/2008 11:16:39 AM Nick Harper CB Quadriceps questionable Harper, who suffered a quad injury against the Texans, was sore and will probably be day-to-day this week, the Tennessean reports. "It's not as bad as we thought," coach Jeff Fisher said. "He's just got a little thigh bruise going."
9/23/2008 11:15:11 AM Justin Gage WR Groin questionable Coach Jeff Fisher did not give an update on Gage, who missed Sunday's game with a groin injury, the Tennessean reports. Gage missed Sunday's game with a groin injury and had been the Titans leading receiver after two games.
9/22/2008 9:54:38 AM Vince Young QB inactive The Titans owner Bud Adams said on Sunday he has no doubt quarterback Vince Young will succeed in the NFL. And despite recent events, using the franchise's first pick of the 2006 was not a mistake, the Tennessean reports. "No, no,'' Adams said as he left LP Field after the Titans defeated the Texans. "It has been a terrible thing, what he's been going through. But I still think he is going to be a great one. Down the years I think we'll be glad to have him. He'll bounce back. He's liable to be playing here 15 years.'' Titan fans do have to wonder how good the team might be had they drafted local Vanderbilt star Jay Cutler instead of Young.
Washington Redskins
Updated Player Pos. Injury Status Update Rotowire Analysis
9/22/2008 1:09:35 PM Jason Taylor DE Out Taylor will be out for this coming weekend's game against Dallas after having blood released from his left calf muscle, the Washington Post reports. "He'll be fine," according to coach Jim Zorn. "It's about healing now." That said, Zorn would not say whether Taylor would be back for Week 5's contest against Philadelphia.
9/22/2008 9:50:58 AM Fred Smoot CB hip probable Smoot (hip) is still bothered by the injury he suffered in Week 1, the Washington Post reports. He played sparingly in Week 3. He plans to practice more this week and hopes to be at full strength for Week 4.
posted by phantom
Sept. 25 2008 2:27am -
0 likes
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
Circled Game
Last Updated: 9/22/2008 3:49:45 PM
Eagles QB Donovan McNabb left the game with a chest injury against the Steelers, but is listed as Probable against the Bears.
Eagles RB Brian Westbrook left Sunday's Steelers game with an ankle injury, and is listed as Questionable against the Bears. Eagles TE LJ Smith is listed as Questionable against the Bears. Bears WR Devin Hester missed Sunday's game with a rib inury and is listed as Questionable against the Eagles.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Circled Game
Last Updated: 9/23/2008 8:53:26 PM
Steelers RB Willie Parker has been declared out for Monday's game against the Ravens with a sprained left knee. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is Questionable with hand and shoulder injuries for Monday's game against the Ravens.
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
Circled Game
Last Updated: 9/24/2008 2:57:14 AM
Redskins DE Jason Taylor suffered a calf injury and underwent surgery on Monday. He is out against the Cowboys.
Buffalo Bills vs. St. Louis Rams
Circled Game
Last Updated: 9/24/2008 3:33:14 AM
The NFL Network is reporting Trent Green has been named the Rams' starter at QB against Buffalo.
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Circled Game
Last Updated: 9/24/2008 3:33:13 AM
Packers CB Al Harris left the game against the Cowboys with a kidney injury and is listed as Questionable against the Buccaneers. Buccaneers WR Joey Galloway missed last week's game with a foot injury and is listed as Questionable against the Packers.
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Circled Game
Last Updated: 9/24/2008 4:42:05 AM
Texans RB Ahman Green is listed as Questionable for Sunday's game against the Jaguars
posted by phantom
Sept. 25 2008 2:27am -
0 likes
Dr. Bob CFB
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 College Best Bets and 5 Strong Opinions this week.
Rotation #141 Stanford (+3) 3-Stars at +3 or more, 2-Stars from +2 1/2 to -1.
Rotation #162 South Carolina (-25) 3-Stars at -27 or less, 2-Stars at -27 1/2 or -28.
Rotation #166 Ball State (-17 1/2) 3-Stars at -21 or less, 2-Stars from -21 1/2 to -23.
Rotation #167 South Florida (-9) 2-Stars at -10 or less, 3-Stars at -7 or less.
Rotation #174 Penn State (-15) 2-Stars at -17 points or less.
Strong Opinions are:
Thursday - Rotation #102 Tulane (-18) Strong Opinion at -19 or less.
Thursday - Rotation #104 Oregon State (+24 1/2) Strong Opinion at +24 or more. 2-Star Best Bet at +27 or more.
Rotation #126 LSU (-24) Strong Opinion at -26 or less.
Rotation #153 Fresno State (-7) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Rotation #163 Army (+27 1/2) Strong Opinion at +27 or more.
3 Star Selection
***BALL ST. (-17.5) 48 Kent State 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Kent State applied to a very strong 53-6-1 ATS indicator last week and still couldn’t come close to covering the spread. That’s 10 consecutive spread losses for the Golden Flashes and it’s about to become 11 in a row. Kent is a horrible defensive team that has allowed 6.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team and the Flashes are not going to be able to stop future NFL draft pick QB Nate Davis – even with top WR Dante Love out. Davis has been among the very best quarterbacks in the nation this season, completing 73% of his passes for an incredible average of 10.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average QB). Dante Love was Davis’ favorite target, but Love was seriously injured in the first half of last week’s game and will no longer be able to play football. Davis and Love had grown into the nation’s top passing duo, as Davis completed an amazing 28 of 32 passes intended for Love for 460 yards (14.4 ypa). If I take those passes out of Davis’ tally then he still would average an incredible 8.4 yards per pass play and Davis gained 127 yards on 14 pass plays (9.1 yppp) after Love’s injury last week at Indiana. Kent State has allowed 66% completions and 7.3 yards per pass play to a horrible collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 4.9 yppp against an average defensive team. Davis will exploit that defense even without Love and RB MiQuale Lewis (529 rushing yards at 5.9 ypr) will also have a big day running against a Kent defensive front that has given up 5.8 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would average just 4.4 yprp against an average team. Kent is decent offensively, averaging 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, but the absence of star running back Eugene Jarvis (1669 yards at 6.0 ypr last season and 5.2 ypr this year before getting hurt in game 3) will likely hurt that attack. Ball State has a much improved defense that has yielded 5.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl, so Kent’s offense and Ball State’s defense are about the same and Kent will have a difficult time keeping up with Ball State on the scoreboard. In addition to the mismatch at the line of scrimmage there is some technical analysis that supports the Cardinals. Ball State applies to a 57-18 ATS home momentum situation that is based on last week’s win at Indiana and Kent applies to a negative 22-68-3 ATS situation. Love’s injury should also serve to fire up his team, which will no doubt dedicate this game to their fallen star. I’ll take Ball State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less and for 2-Stars from -21 ½ to -23 points.
3 Star Selection
***SOUTH CAROLINA (-25.0) 45 UAB 10
04:00 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
South Carolina hasn’t been very good offensively this season, averaging just 5.1 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack, but the Gamecocks have been 0.1 yppl better than average with Chris Smelley at quarterback and Steve Spurrier will take out his frustration against the nation’s worst defense. UAB has allowed 7.8 yppl in 4 games to teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team and the Blazers are particularly bad against the pass, allowing 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would average 5.5 yppp against an average team. UAB allowed 9.7 yppl to Tulsa, 9.2 yppl to Florida Atlantic, and 7.4 yppl to a sub-par Tennessee offense. Even the 4.8 yppl and 10 points that UAB allowed to Alcorn State last week is bad when you consider that Alcorn State is one of the worst offensive teams in Division 1AA ball and would average just 2.7 yppl and 0 points against an average Division 1A defense. While South Carolina finally gets to have some fun on offense the ferocious Gamecocks’ defense (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team) should put the clamps on UAB quarterback Joe Webb, who is a below average passer (6.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp) but has run for 443 yards on 55 rushing plays (8.1 yprp). UAB has only faced one better than average defensive team and the Blazers scored just 3 points in that game at Tennessee. South Carolina’s defense is much better than Tennessee’s defense, so Webb won’t generate too much offense. My ratings favor the Gamecocks by 35 points and Steve Spurrier’s teams at Duke, Florida, and South Carolina are a combined 86-54-2 ATS (61%) as a favorite of 35 points or less. Spurrier is also 5-1 ATS at South Carolina when facing a team with a losing record. I’ll take South Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -27 points or less and for 2-Stars from -27 ½ to -28 points.
3 Star Selection
***Stanford 30 WASHINGTON (-3.0) 21
07:00 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Washington has faced a tough schedule of teams (Oregon, BYU, and Oklahoma), but that doesn’t hide the fact that the Huskies are a bad team. Washington has been out-gained by an average of 4.3 yards per play to 7.6 yppl in those 3 contests, which is bad even when you consider that Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma would combine to out-gain an average team 6.4 yppl to 4.6 yppl. The Huskies’ Jake Locker is an outstanding talent, but all of last year’s top receivers are gone and Locker has averaged just 4.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback). Jake can still run the ball (229 yards on 37 rushing plays), but the running backs have been horrible and Washington’s overall rushing numbers are just average (4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp). Stanford has a solid defense that has allowed 5.2 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit and the defense has been better the last two weeks with the addition of LB Nick Macaluso, who missed the first two games of the season. Stanford’s offense is hindered by the poor quarterback play of Tavita Pritchard (4.6 yppp against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp), but running back Toby Gerhart has run for 407 yards at 5.7 ypr and he should have another big game against a weak Huskies’ defensive front that’s surrendered 6.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average team. Washington can’t defend the pass either (9.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 7.4 yppp), so Pritchard should have decent success through the air too. Stanford is actually a much better offensive team than Washington is and the defensive edge for the Cardinal is huge (as well as the special teams edge). Not only is Stanford the better team but the Cardinal apply to an 88-35-1 ATS subset of a 248-132-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator that has been very good to me over the years and Washington is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons, including 0-5 straight up their last 5 in that role. I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars from +2 ½ to -1
2 Star Selection
**S. Florida (-9) 31 NO CAROLINA ST. 14
04:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
South Florida is 0-3 ATS this season, but the Bulls are in a good spot to play a good game this week against an NC State team due for a letdown after their overtime win over East Carolina. NC State applies to a negative 42-78-1 ATS situation that plays against home underdogs after a straight up win as a dog of 7 points or more and the Wolfpack will be hurt by the loss of top defensive player Nate Irving, who injured his leg in the second half of last week’s win. Starting quarterback Russell Wilson is also out indefinitely, but Wilson wasn’t really that productive and Harrison Beck probably won’t be any worse. Beck has averaged just 5.8 yards per pass play on 209 pass plays since last season (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) and he has thrown a horrendous 13 interceptions on just 214 career pass attempts (6.1%, which works out to 2 per game). South Florida has been just mediocre defending the pass so far this season, but Beck shouldn’t do too much damage and the Wolfpack aren’t going to be able to run against a dominating USF defensive front that has allowed just 3.1 yards per rushing play in 3 games against Division 1A opponents (who would combine to average 4.3 yprp against an average team). South Florida’s offense has only been 0.2 yards per play better than average in 3 Division 1A games, but they played it pretty conservatively last week in a letdown spot against Florida International (which followed their thrilling win over Kansas) and I actually rate the Bulls’ attack at 0.5 yppl better than average. NC State’s defense has been worse than average through 4 games (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl) and that unit is likely to get worse without Irving, who leads the team in tackles, has 25% of the team’s tackles for loss and 28% of the team’s passes defended with 3 of those being interceptions. South Florida applies to a very strong 40-3 ATS subset of a 245-130-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator and my math model suggests that the line is fair, as I favor USF by 8 ½ points despite the Bulls playing below their potential so far. I’ll take South Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less and I’d make USF a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 or less.
2 Star Selection
**PENN ST. (-15.0) 40 Illinois 16
05:10 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Penn State has won their 4 games by an average score of 53-10 and the Nittany Lions still appear to be an underrated team. Perhaps people question the strength of a schedule that includes Coastal Carolina, Syracuse and Temple. My math model compensates for strength of opponent and the Nittany Lions rank among the top 5 teams in the nation in my ratings. Penn State did host a pretty good Oregon State team (the Beavers are underrated because they lost to Stanford in a game they actually dominated from the line of scrimmage) and the Lions out-gained the Beavers 7.0 yards per play to 4.7 yppl in a 45-14 victory, so Paterno’s club has proven themselves against a team of similar caliber to Illinois. By the way, Illinois faced two horrible teams in their 3 games and the Illini only out-gained Eastern Illinois and UL Lafayette 5.9 yppl to 4.6 yppl, which is a far cry from Penn State’s 7.0 yppl to 3.8 yppl advantage against their schedule. Illinois did play very well against Missouri (6.9 yppl to 6.7 yppl allowed), but quarterback Juice Williams has followed up his incredible 409 yards at 8.7 yards per pass play performance by averaging just 5.2 yppp against Eastern Illinois and UL Lafayette, which is a game they nearly lost. Overall, Williams has been just 0.3 yppp better than average (6.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback), which is slightly better than he was last season (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp). Illinois certainly doesn’t run the ball as well this season (5.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team) as they did when they had Rashard Mendenhall toting the rock and I don’t see the Illini doing much damage against a dominating Penn State defense that has allowed just 2.9 yprp and 3.9 yppp to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp and 5.0 yppp against an average defensive team (after factoring in that they faced Temple’s backup quarterback for most of last week’s game). Now the Lions get their best defensive player, DE Maurice Evans (12.5 sacks and 21.5 total tackles for loss last season), back after serving a 3 game suspension. Penn State’s offense is also very good (7.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and the Lions great rushing attack (279 yards per game at 6.7 yprp, against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) will thrive against an Illinois defensive front that has allowed 5.6 yprp to teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team. If Eastern Illinois can run for 211 yards at 6.6 yprp against the Illini I just don’t see how Penn State and their dominating offensive line can be stopped. The Illini have been good in pass defense (5.4 yppp against teams that would average 6.6 yppp) but they are just 0.1 yppl better than average overall and Penn State should have no trouble moving the ball. My ratings favor Penn State by 24 ½ points in this game and using this year’s games only would favor the Lions by 32 ½ points. Penn State reminds me a lot of Kansas last season, as the Jayhawks started the season with dominating wins over weaker teams while the public questioned how good they really were because of their schedule. My math model picked Kansas every week and the Jayhawks covered the spread in their first 11 games. Penn State is a very good team and that will be proven over and over again this season. My only concern is Illinois coach Ron Zook’s history of success against good teams. Excluding Zook’s first year at Illinois in 2005 (when he didn’t have any talent), Zook’s teams at Florida and Illinois are 13-1-1 ATS as an underdog in conference play, including a straight up win at Ohio State last season. Penn State, however, is 17-4-1 ATS the last few years as a favorite of 9 points or more and the Paterno is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 9 points or more in revenge games - so the team trends are about even - and Penn State applies to a solid 87-34-1 ATS statistical profile indicator. I’ll take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less.
Strong Opinion
TULANE (-18.0) 39 SMU 16
05:00 PM Pacific, 25-Sep-08
June Jones hasn’t had the instant magic at SMU as he did in his first season at Hawaii back in ’99 (from 0-12 in ’98 to 9-4 in ’99), as the Mustangs young quarterbacks are struggling in his run-and-shoot attack. Freshman starter Bo Levi Mitchell has been decent on a yards per pass attempt basis (7.1 ypa), but he takes too many sacks and has thrown 10 interceptions in 4 games. Overall the Mustangs have averaged a respectable 5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but the interceptions figure to keep on coming with a freshman at quarterback against a good defense. While Jones hasn’t been a miracle worker at SMU, new Tulane defensive coordinator O’Neill Gilbert has turned the Tulane defense into a very good unit. The Green Wave started the season by holding Alabama to just 173 total yards at 3.6 yppl and they to nearly upset East Carolina while limiting the Pirates’ good attack to just 5.2 yppl. The Green Wave finally got their first win of the season with a 24-10 win over UL Monroe last week while yielding just 200 total yards. Tulane has given up just 4.6 yppl in 3 games to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team and the Wave pass defense has been especially good (just 4.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.5 yppp), which matches up nicely with a pass-heavy SMU attack. Tulane has averaged 4.3 sacks per game and they should harass Mitchell into plenty of mistakes in this game. Tulane hasn’t been much offensively (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl), but SMU has a horrible defense that’s surrendered 6.7 yppl (to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average team), including giving up 6.0 yppl and 36 points to a bad Texas State offense and 6.6 yppl and 48 points to a sub-par TCU attack last week. My math model favors Tulane by 18 ½ points and the Green Wave apply to a 55-24-3 ATS home momentum situation that plays on teams coming off their first win of the season. SMU, meanwhile, applies to a negative 4-22 ATS early season angle based on their bad defense. I’ll consider Tulane a Strong Opinion at -19 points or less.
Strong Opinion
OREGON ST. 16 USC (-24.5) 34
06:00 PM Pacific, 25-Sep-08
USC has been dominant in their first two games, beating the crap out of a bad Virginia squad 52-7 and then taking care of a very good Ohio State team 35-3. The Trojans are certainly the best team in the nation based on their first two games, but teams that impressive in their first two games can often become overrated. In fact, game 3 road favorites of 6 points or more are just 10-27 ATS if they won and covered as favorites in each of their first two games, including 1-11 ATS if they covered the spread in both games by more than 9 points. USC also applies to a negative 11-45 ATS road favorite letdown situation and Oregon State applies to a 39-4-1 ATS subset of a 99-37-3 ATS rested home underdog situation that is 23-1-1 ATS when applying to underdogs of 7 points or more. While USC is obviously a very strong team on both sides of the ball and special teams, the Beavers may be a bit underrated. Oregon State was crushed 14-45 at Penn State, but the Beavers’ loss at Stanford was misleading (they out-gained the Cardinal 490 yards to 306 yards) and Oregon State rates 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively after adjusting for the level of opposition faced. Quarterback Lyle Moevao is posting very good numbers (6.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and Sammie Stroughter (21 catches in 3 games) and Shane Morales (22 catches) form one of the best receiving duos in the Pac 10. The Beavers won’t be able to run, but they should have some success throwing the football. My ratings favor USC by 22 points and the line has gone from 21 ½ points to 25 points – so there is line value on the side of the Beavers in addition to the strong situation. The only problem I’ve got with this game is USC’s 18-5 ATS record in games after a bye (including bowl games) under coach Pete Carroll, including 9-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 13 points – so the off week probably negates the possibility of a letdown. However, the Trojans are also just 4-11 ATS as a conference road favorite of more than 10 points after a win when they don’t have revenge (2-2 ATS off a bye). The situation favoring Oregon State is just too strong to ignore and I’ll consider Oregon State a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more and I’d take Oregon State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +27 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Army 12 TEXAS A&M (-27.5) 34
09:30 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Army is the worst offensive team in Division 1A football, as the Cadets have averaged just 3.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. However, Army’s run heavy attack (78% runs) should have decent success today against an A&M defensive front that has allowed opponents to average 6.5 yards per rushing play (those opponents would only average 4.6 yprp against an average team). If Army can run for better than the 3.7 yprp that they’ve managed so far this season then they can sustain a few drives and eat up the clock in the process. Teams that run a large majority of the time are generally good bets as huge underdogs in part because running the ball eats up more clock and usually leads to fewer turnovers (which are normally a big problem with huge underdogs). Texas A&M has been well below average both running (3.9 yprp) and throwing the ball (5.5 yppp) and the Aggies are 0.7 yppl worse than average overall on offense (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Army is pretty good defending the run (4.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), but the Aggies should move the ball through the air pretty easily in this game against a Black Knight secondary that has given up 7.5 yards per pass play to teams that would average just 5.4 yppp against an average defensive team. My ratings favor Texas A&M by just 22 points in this game and I’ll consider Army a Strong Opinion at +27 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Fresno St. (-7.0) 32 UCLA 20
12:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
UCLA has been out-played in every game this season and the Bruins were lucky to get their one win over Tennessee (they were out-gained 4.0 yards per play to 4.9 yppl by the Vols). I don’t see that trend changing today against a good Fresno State team that survived their letdown game last week at Toledo (a 55-54 OT win). The Bulldogs have been 1.1 yppl better than average offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) with a good balance of run (188 yards at 5.5 yprp) and pass (207 yards at 7.2 yppp) and veteran quarterback Tom Brandstater rarely makes mistakes (just 6 interceptions on 416 pass attempts since last season). UCLA’s defense has barely been better than average so far this season (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), so the Bulldogs should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game. That is not likely to be the case for UCLA’s offense, which has managed just 3.9 yppl in 3 games this season (against teams that would allow 4.7 yppl to an average attack). Fresno is average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl) and will be a bit without two of their defensive linemen this week, but UCLA doesn’t appear capable of moving the ball consistently enough to keep up with Fresno State. My ratings favor Fresno State by 12 ½ points and using this year’s games only would predict a 17 ½ point margin in favor the Bulldogs. UCLA is 11-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or more since 1989 (1-0 this year) and Fresno State is only 3-9 ATS as a non-conference favorite under Pat Hill, so I’ll resist making this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
LSU (-24.0) 37 Mississippi St. 7
04:30 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-08
Mississippi State was 4-0 in close games last season (i.e. games decided by 7 points or less) so their 8-5 record is a bit misleading and is the reason the Bulldogs were overrated heading into this season. Miss State was just an average team last season, rating at 0.7 yards per play worse than average on offense and 0.6 yppl better than average on defense. This year’s team is even worse offensively so far, averaging 4.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team, and that unit has managed just 7 points total in games against Auburn and Georgia Tech the last two weeks (and they scored just 14 points against a bad Louisiana Tech defense in their only other game against a Division 1A opponent, which also resulted in a loss). LSU’s defense is not as good as it’s been in recent years, but the Tigers are still very good on the stop side of the ball and that unit has allowed just 4.1 yppl in 3 games against teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average team. Mississippi State may give more playing time to quarterback Tyson Lee, who has completed 67% of his 45 passes, but Lee’s compensated yards per pass play number (5.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) is only 0.1 yppp better than Miss State’s team average – so Lee doesn’t appear to be the answer (although he hasn’t thrown an interception and Carroll has thrown 6 picks). Expect another single digit scoring effort from the Bulldogs in this game. LSU may also be changing quarterbacks, as redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee played very well in the 2nd half of last week’s comeback win at Auburn after starter Andrew Hatch was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Lee has averaged a sparkling 7.6 yppp on 50 pass plays (against teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp) and he gives the Tigers a better passing option to go along with their great rushing attack (6.7 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team). Mississippi State is once again solid in pass defense (4.6 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppp), but the Bulldogs were ripped for 439 yards on the ground last week by Georgia Tech at an incredible 8.3 yprp. I actually think that game was an aberration since the Bulldogs aren’t used to seeing the option being run in the SEC, but LSU should still be able to get good yardage on the ground and gradually extend the margin in this game. LSU actually applies to a very strong 74-16-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator, but the Tigers are a surprising 0-10 ATS in conference home games following a victory under coach Les Miles and they could certainly suffer a letdown this week after last week’s showdown with Auburn. My math model favors LSU by 30 points in this game, so the Tigers can still cover even with a bit of a letdown, and that 74-16-1 ATS match-up indicator is too good to ignore. I’ll consider LSU a Strong Opinion at -26 points or less.
posted by phantom
Sept. 25 2008 10:08pm -
0 likes
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP NFL
link to pdf file for northcoast powersweep
http://www.zshare.net/download/1928895088b54790/ [zshare.net]">http://www.zshare.net/download/1928895088b54790/ [zshare.net]>
(4★ = 2-0-1)
4★ Excellent
3★ Very Good
2★ Good
4* Tenn 27-9
3* Over Cleveland 31-30
2* Houston (+) 17 (+) -20
2* San Fran 27 (+)-28
4★ TENNESSEE over Minnesota - These teams are rather similar in that they feature smashmouth offenses
with excellent RB’s & powerful physical defenses. MIN is 0-5-1 ATS away vs AFC teams. TEN is 12-4 ATS at
home vs the NFC. LW the Vikings made a surprise move by switching to QB Frerotte to salvage the season
for a heavy preseason playoff favorite. Frerotte was decent & after a slow start fi nished with 204 yds (57%)
with a 1-1 ratio (7.3) but the defense was dominant as MIN outgained CAR 166-38 in the 2H. TEN’s defense
has been ferocious TY as they are only allowing 89 ypg rushing (3.7), have 11 sacks, a 1-7 ratio & a 5.4 ypa.
Collins is doing enough in the passing game to keep opposing defenses honest & the combo of Johnson &
White has rushed for 141 ypg (4.3). While both teams are mirror images we’ll side with the home team that
has allowed 14 or less pts in 11 of its L19 games. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 Minnesota 9
3★ OVER: Cleveland 31 CINCINNATI 30 - Neither CIN or CLE has had a fair shot to start the year as both
teams have faced 3 straight top 10 defenses. CLE got its season on track LY with a 51-45 shootout win in
Wk 2 as a 7 pt HD only to lose ATS CIN 19-14 as a 2 pt AF in Wk 16. CLE has a much needed bye on deck
to heal up & is 5-1-1 ATS before it. The favorite is 10-6 ATS. While Palmer had a good game LW with 286
yds (69%) with a 1-0 ratio vs NYG they only have 3 offensive TD’s in 3 games. They revamped the defense
in the offseason but have been outrushed 174 (4.7)-97 (3.3) & the offense has only converted 15 of 49 3rd
Dns (35%). Anderson started out 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS LY & avg 262 ypg passing (58%) with a 23-12 ratio
(89.4 QBR) & 7.6 ypa. Anderson is 3-4 SU & ATS & has avg’d 161 ypg (51%) with a 7-10 ratio (57.6 QBR)
& a horrible 5.3 ypa since. It’s been 10 years since an 0-3 team made the playoffs & after LW’s close loss
it’s business as usual for CIN. CLE however was billed as a playoff team before the season & look for them
to go all out to snare a win before the bye as both QB’s vent their frustration in a higher scoring game.
FORECAST: OVER: Cleveland 31 CINCINNATI 30
OTHER SELECTIONS
2★ Houston 17 (+) JACKSONVILLE 20 - HOU is the 1st team since 1991 to start the season with 3 road
games. The Texans are 9-3 ATS vs the Jaguars. LY JAX beat HOU 37-17 as a 6.5 pt HF. HOU drove inside
the JAX 10 on their 1st 2 drives but settled for a FG & fumbled the ball away. JAX had TD drives of 76, 81, 78,
& 73 yds along with a 77 yd fumble return for a TD. HOU is 5-13 ATS on the road while JAX is 5-13 ATS as
a division favorite. QB Schaub was very rusty LW vs TEN with only 188 yds passing (45%) and an 0-3 ratio
(5.1 ypa). HOU did fi nally fi nd a RB as Slaton rushed for 116 yds (6.4). The Jags stuck to what they do best
with the run & defense LW & beat IND on a 51 yd FG with :08 left. JAX outrushed IND 236 (4.9) to 114 (6.0)
& had a huge 41:35 to 18:25 TOP edge. Garrard is back to his role as game manager & he only had 167 yds
(73%) with an int LW & JAX WR situation simply doesn’t give JAX the ability to engage in a shootout. We’ll
side with the Ugly Dog (18-9 67%) getting generous points vs a JAX team that has a tough SNF game vs PIT
on deck and will just be happy to get a SU win here. FORECAST: Houston 17 (+) JACKSONVILLE 20
2★ San Francisco 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28 - This is the 3rd year in a row & 12th in 10 years that these
former NFC West foes square off with NO going 9-2 ATS. Brees has avg’d 261 ypg (72%) with a 5-0 ratio in
his 2 meetings vs SF beating them by a combined 65-20. LY NO jumped out to a 31-3 lead before allowing
an 80 yd 15 play drive to SF in garbage time as the Saints had a 26-15 FD & 438-260 yd edge as a 2 pt
AF. NO is 5-14 ATS as a HF. SF is 2-6 ATS as an AD. NO returns home after 2 road games while the 49ers
are off a “Martz†revenge game vs DET. SF mauled DET with 14-4 FD & 224-67 yd edges with a 21-3 lead.
In his L2 games O’Sullivan has passed for 255 yds (66%) with a 3-0 ratio & 113.4 QBR. SF’s pass defense
was 21st LY but thanks to the better efforts of the offense to keep them fresh they are 8th at this point with
a 5.5 ypa. Brees once again had an outstanding game LW passing for 421 yds (81%) with a 1-0 ratio but
the run game only gained 88 yds (3.5) vs DEN #27 rush defense. After 3 high scoring & taxing games. NO
is in a fl at spot with a MNF HG on deck vs MIN. SF delivered as our 4★ Key Selection LW here & look for
SF to make this a surprisingly close game. FORECAST: San Francisco 27 (+) NEW ORLEANS 28
OTHER GAMES
Denver 38 KANSAS CITY 17 - KC is the 1st team since 1960 to start 3 different QB’s in its 1st 3 games & a
report surfaced of them trying to trade for Brady Quinn LW. DEN swept the series SU & ATS LY by a combined
68-18. DEN avg 390-207 yd edge & was +6 TO’s with a 9-2 sack edge as well. KC was without RB Johnson
for both games & Cutler avg’d 218 yds (66%) with a 5-1 ratio. DEN is 2-5 ATS on the road in Div play but KC
is 0-6 SU & ATS at home during their 12 game SU losing streak. After facing the #4 & #2 pass offenses the
L2W the Broncos get a favorable matchup vs a KC offense that only has passed for 169 ypg (4.8 ypa) in 3
games. KC went with Tyler Thigpen LW & he only had 128 yds passing (39%) with a 1-3 (3.6 ypa). KC didn’t
earn their initial FD until 9:03 left in the 2Q with their 1st 6 drives being 3 & out. KC was forced to start 2 rookie
CB’s LW with Surtain out gave up 192 yds passing (10.7 ypa) to a rookie QB in his 3rd start. They now face
Cutler who has surged on the season with 305 yds passing (68%) with an 8-2 ratio & 8.5 ypa. The talent gap
is simply too wide here & look for DEN to remain undefeated with a big road win here.
Arizona 24 NY JETS 23 - ARZ opted to stay & practice in DC after LW’s game vs WAS instead of enduring a
6000+ mile roundtrip on a plane. The Jets are off a long trip for a MNF game vs an angry SD team. NYJ are
2-6-1 ATS at home. LW was a huge game for ARZ as Whisenhunt pounded the fact that the team had to win
the NFC games on the road. ARZ was tied 17-17 after the 3Q but couldn’t hang on as they were outgained
126-23 & Warner was int’d to set up a 2 play, 15 yd TD drive for WAS. LW’s loss snapped a streak of 20+ ppg
in 10 straight games for ARZ. Arizona also lost DE Berry and fell to 2-15 SU and 6-11 ATS in EST. This is a
unique scheduling situation as the travel advantage goes to ARZ here & they catch a Jets squad travelling
back from SD on a late night fl ight. ARZ has a dynamic passing game & while James has become one of
the slower RB’s in the NFL they should be able to go to hang with Favre & the Jets here.
CAROLINA 24 Atlanta 9 - The visitor has covered the L5 in the series & CAR is 6-19 ATS as a division HF.
CAR is 1-8 ATS at home off a SU road loss. The teams split the series LY with Delhomme being KO’d for
the year with an elbow injury in the 1st game. ATL had a 17-10 lead in the 3Q when they self-destructed
due to penalties including an unsportsmanlike penalty that gave CAR a fresh set of downs on the ATL 14
enabling them to tie it up 2 plays later. CAR had another drive helped by a roughing the passer penalty to
put the ball on the ATL 10 with the go ahead TD on the next drive. ATL had a 442-313 yd edge but was hit
with 10 penalties. LW’s results set up a favorable setting as ATL crushed arguably the worst team in the NFL
LW 38-14 as a 6 pt HF as our 4★ NFL GOM. ATL only had a 77 yd edge in the game as they converted 3
int into 17 pts. Their 2 wins have been at home vs foes that are a combined 0-6 TY. They were held to just 9
pts & 105 yds rushing (3.
in their only road game vs TB. CAR has played 3 playoff caliber defenses thatwere backed up by strong rushing attacks & have beaten 2 of them. Delhomme was harassed by a MIN DL
that fi nally got its act together but ATL’s #10 pass defense is overrated. Expect CAR’s offense to improve
in WR Smith’s 2nd game (4 rec 17.5). While it’s tough to lay this many points with CAR, the Falcons have
exceeded expectations winning both games at home with a rookie QB & losing their road game. The home
team has covered by 14 ppg in Falcons games.
TAMPA BAY 19 Green Bay 10 - The Packers are off LW’s SNF game vs DAL & it’s unknown how Rodgers
fared vs one of the better defenses in the NFL. GB is 9-2 ATS on the road & in their 9 wins they have tallied
a 32-17 margin. TB is 7-2-1 ATS at home. GB faced Griese LY on SNF vs the Bears & he was effective as
he passed for 214 yds (60%) with a 2-1 ratio in the 27-20 win as a 3 pt AD. The Bucs are off a very physical
OT game in which Griese had 67 pass att’s (3 shy NFL record) & it’ll be interesting to see how his shoulder
holds up. While Griese had 407 yds (57%) he also had 3 int which setup 17 pts for CHI. TB’s pass defense
is a bit of a question as they struggled vs Brees in Wk 1 (343 yds 72% 3-1) & they allowed Orton to get on
track in the 2H as he hit 192 yds (68%) with 2 TD’s. Rodgers has been strong in the 1st 2 games with 253
ypg (70%) with a 4-0 ratio. He now has to travel to a hot & humid location vs a traditionally strong defense
at home. Even though he faced DAL on the road LY coming off the bench TB will have 3 full games of fi lm
on him to work with & there is a different mind-set as the practicing starter.
Buffalo 30 ST LOUIS 20 - STL goes from facing a depleted division foe that they are very familiar with to
facing a healthy BUF team that is 3-0 for the 1st time since 1992. The Rams have a bye on deck & they are not
expected to have 3/4 of the stadium capacity. BUF is 5-2 ATS on the road. STL is 0-5 as a HD & is 4-9 ATS vs
a foe above .500. BUF got a wake up call vs OAK LW & was forced to rally from 9 pts down halfway thru the
3Q. In the 4Q they surged to a 211-82 yd edge with a 17-7 score. LY after 3 games STL was outgained an avg
298-291, outrushed 152 (4.7) - 91 (3.5), Bulger was sacked 8 times & they were losing by an avg of 23-11.
TY’s Rams are being outgained 457-202, outrushed 184 (5.1) - 56 (3.1), Bulger has been sacked 11 times
& they are losing by a 39-9.7 margin. STL has 1 offensive TD in 36 drives & after LW’s performance at SEA
HC Linehan is dead man walking. BUF read too many of their press clippings LW & took OAK for granted but
STL had their best chance for a win LW vs a team starting their 7th & 9th WR’s & couldn’t come thru. While
this is a large amount of points to work with, a young BUF team showed their character coming back from a
9 pt defi cit with 6:00 to go & they are ready to handle the role as a large AF.
San Diego 31 OAKLAND 13 - The Chargers are off LW’s MNF game vs the Jets & Tomlinson was questionable
due to a toe injury. SD has dominated the series going 9-1 SU & ATS with an avg score of 28-15.
SD is 5-1 ATS as a division AF. OAK is 2-11 ATS as a division HD & are 3-7 ATS at home before a bye.
Russell got his 1st start at home vs SD LY in the season fi nale. While SD was outgained 316-253 they
sacked Russell 4 times & converted 4 TO’s into 14 pts. SD has a massive edge in the passing game with
Rivers (297 ypg 63% 6-1 9.9 ypa) vs Russell (130 ypg 52% 3-0 6.8 ypa). OAK blew a 9 pt lead halfway in
the 3Q & only ran 11 offensive plays for the rest of the game. LW OAK’s strength is in the run game but RB
Fargas (groin) is quest, RB McFadden (turf toe) is only at 70% & RB Bush (55 yds 3.9 LW) still struggles
in pass protection. Also up in the air is the Kiffi n/Davis feud which was brought back into the spotlight by
former OAK QB Gannon after LW’s game. Div dogs of 7 or more are 19-3-1 ATS before their bye but SD is
a better & more desperate team. Even if SD won on MNF they are at best tied with OAK in the AFC West,
have covered 5 straight here & have won by 18 ppg.
DALLAS 24 Washington 17 - The Cowboys are off B2B primetime games including a road game vs GB
LW on SNF. WAS has covered 3 straight in the series but DAL had already earned the #1 seed in the NFC
& rested everyone vs a WAS team that needed a win to make the playoffs in the season fi nale LY. In LY’s
1st meeting WAS had a 10-7 lead at the half but DAL pulled ahead 28-16 mid-4Q. WAS scored a 5 yd TD
pass by Campbell who ran a hurry up offense. WAS got to the DAL 19 on their next drive but Campbell
was int in the EZ & WAS had 28-19 FD & 423-362 yd edges. DAL is 1-5 ATS at home in division play. WAS
was in a horrible situation in their 1st road game vs the defending SB champions with a new HC & a QB in
his 3rd system with the team. In the L2 games Campbell has avg’d 257 ypg (70%) with a 3-0 ratio & 107.8
QBR as he has adjusted to Zorn’s SEA style offense. WAS still has the same basic defense as LY & should
do enough to slow down a weary DAL team to stay within the number
.
Philadelphia at CHICAGO - The Bears upset the Eagles 19-16 as 6 pt AD’s LY. PHI had a 9-3 lead at the
half & was up 16-12 late in the 4Q. After running out the clock PHI punted & pinned CHI at their own 3.
CHI drove down to the PHI 15 with :15 left & threw the game winning TD as time expired with a 386-334
yd edge. The Bears rested Hester (rib cartilage) & lost to TB in OT LW 27-24 as a 3 pt HF. Orton started
slow LW going 9 of 18 for 76 yds & 2 int and then he put the game on his shoulders & threw for 192 yds
(81%) with 2 TD’s to send the game to OT. PHI’s win LW was very costly as RB Westbrook has a strained
ligament in his ankle & McNabb was KO’d before the 1H with a chest injury only to return in the 2H. We’ll
hold off on making a call here as we need to see the injury status of Hester & Westbrook. This is the
Sunday Night Marquee PPH Play. The PPH has the winner up at 11:00 am ET on Sunday morning!
Call 1-900-438-9467 for just $15 or pay just $9 on your NC Debit Card. Sunday Night Plays over
the last 11 years are 103-65-3 61%!
Baltimore at PITTSBURGH - The Steelers take this rivalry much more seriously than they do the one
vs the Browns. BAL has covered 5 of 6 in the series but how will the 2-0. Rookie QB Flacco handle
making his 1st career road start on MNF in a hostile stadium? Roethlisberger was sacked 8 times LW
& was KO’d out of the game late & his status is unknown. This will come down to which defense is more
physical at the POA & if the OL’s can protect their QB’s. Call tonight for the Monday Night Magic
play. See below and don’t miss out on this Guaranteed Winner - you pay ONLY IF YOU WIN on
the Monday Night Magic Play!
OVER/UNDERS
3★'s are 6-3 THIS YEAR .
Here are this week's plays:
3★ Browns/Bengals Over 42'
3★ Falcons/Panthers Under 39'
3★ Broncos/Chiefs Over 46'
2★ Texans/Jaguars Under 40
2★ Vikings/Titans Under 37
SYSTEM SELECTION
Go against the home team that lost by 3 or less as a double digit road dog last week.
1989-2007: 23-5 82%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY:
AGAINST: CINCINNATI
PLAY ON: CLEVELAND
PRO ANGLES
There are 3 main methods ofhandicapping, Fundamental, Situation & Technical. Fundamental handicapping,
or theanalysis of personnel matchups & power ratings, is our main method of handicapping.
This accounts for roughly 50% of how we view a game. Situational handicapping (analysis
of letdown, look ahead, systems) takes up approximately 25% of our handicapping.
Technical handicapping (analysis of angles) takes up the rest. You should never base
your fi nal selection on 1 factor. To be a complete handicapper you must look at all 3
methods. For more complete analysis you should read Ten Keys To A Winning Season
Each week in Power Sweep we provide the angle section to add to
your handicapping arsenal. Many times we will agree with the angle
plays. Sometimes the Fundamental & Situational aspects of a game
will outweigh the angles & we have the other side written up in Power
Sweep. We want to make it clear that the side we write up in Power
Sweep is the side we are on. We are NOT Technical handicappers,
but we do use them in our handicapping analysis. Each week in Power
Sweep we provide pro angles for the current week's games. For the
angle plays the number in the ( ) indicates how many angles apply to
that team. The higher the number the stronger the angle play.
ATL is 3-9-1 as a division dog
ARZ is 5-2 away vs the AFC
BAL is 5-1 vs PIT
BUF is 5-1 vs the NFC
BUF is 5-2 on the road
CAR is 6-19 as a div HF
CHI is 5-0 as a dog
CLE is 5-1-1 before a bye
DAL is 1-5 at home vs a div foe
DAL is 3-7 as a favorite of 7.5 or more
DEN is 2-5 on the road in division play
GB is 9-2 on the road
HOU is 5-12 on the road
HOU is 1-5 in Div play
JAX is 5-13 as a division favorite
KC is 0-6 SU & ATS at home
KC is 0-5 SU & ATS in division play
MIN is 0-5-1 away vs the AFC
NYJ are 7-4 as a non-div HF
NO is 4-9 as a non-div HF
NO is 3-9 as a fav of 7 or more
OAK is 5-13 as a HD
OAK is 2-11 at home in division play
OAK is 3-7 at home before a bye
PHI is 10-2 on the road
STL is 0-5 as a HD
STL is 1-6 after facing SEA
STL is 5-13* overall
SD is 8-3-1 away in division play
SF is 2-6 as an AD
TB is 19-9-2 hosting a non-div foe
TEN is 12-4 at home vs the NFC
WAS is 5-9-1 on the road
posted by phantom
Sept. 26 2008 4:00am -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence's PLAYBOOK
Volume 23, Issue 6 September 25-29, 2008
PRO FOOTBALL
4* BEST BET
Cleveland over CINCINNATI by 7
division cellar-dwellers. The Bengals came oh-so-close before falling in
overtime to the NY Giants. That sets the table for this contest as teams off
a loss of 3 or fewer points against the defending Super Bowl champions
are 1-7 ATS when hosting a division foe the following week. Couple that
with the fact that winless teams at home in Game Four of the season
are 1-11 SU and ATS when facing an opponent off a loss of more than 7
points. With a strong possibility of a ‘Quinn sighting’ in the offi ng and
the Black Cats a putrid 2-16 SU and ATS in Game Four of the season, look
for Romeo to come calling today.
3* BEST BET
Houston over JACKSONVILLE by 3
Questionable play-calling by Gary Kubiak denied the Texans a chance to
take Tennessee down while a fortuitous 51-yard fi eld goal at the buzzer
lifted the Jags past the Colts in diverse results for both of these teams
last week. As a result the Texans are in quest of their fi rst win of the
campaign with a defense that’s allowed 31 and 38 points in its two losses.
We mention that because teams in Game Three that have allowed more
than 30 points in each game to open the season are 4-1 SU and ATS when
taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win. Jack Del Rio’s 2-4 SU and 1-5
ATS mark as a favorite against division opponents off a loss is disturbing.
No surprise here to see Jax fall to 0-6 ATS as home chalk against a foe off
an away game. Take Tex.
NY JETS over Arizona by 6
Flyboys return to the Apple off Monday night’s skirmish in San Diego while the
Cardinals look to regroup after Sunday’s hard-fought, fi rst loss of the season
at Washington. It won’t be easy considering Zona’s 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS mark
against the AFC East. Couple that with the fact that Brett Favre is 8-1 as a nondivision
favorite after Monday nights and 3-1 SU and ATS in his career against
the Cardinals. We won’t fade those kind of numbers
NEW ORLEANS over San Francisco by 3
One team’s got it and the other doesn’t. Defense, that is. And if you’re Frisco
head coach Mike Nolan you’re banking heavily on it as the Saints have managed
to post 30 or more points in each if its last four meetings in this series (all wins).
Our friendly database tells us that favorites or dogs of 1 or less points off backto-
back losses are 0-7-1 ATS in Game Four of the season when taking on a foe
off back-to-back wins. The loss of TE Jeremy Shockey certainly doesn’t help
matters. The bottom line is it’s hard to pass on a touchdown dog with 100 yards
the better defense. We won’t.
CAROLINA over Atlanta by 3
Panthers let us down in a major way last week when, after jumping out to a
10-0 lead at Minnesota, they then no-showed the fi nal 40 minutes of the game.
With that we have no choice but to fade them in their non-desirable role as
chalk. That’s confi rmed by John Fox’s 3-9 ATS record as a division home favorite,
including 1-5 when laying more than 6 points. In somewhat of a surprise, the
rebuilding Falcons will look to improve to 3-1 (or better) through the fi rst four
games of the season for the 4th time in the last fi ve years with a win here today.
Averaging 55 yards more than they allow per game against an opponent that
surrenders 23 YPG more than it gains, another 3-1 start is a distinct possibility.
You know what to do.
TENNESSEE over Minnesota by 1
From a technical standpoint this game is a tough call. That’s because 3-0 teams
at home, favored by less than 7 points, are an eye-popping 12-1 ATS in Game
Four. On the fl ip side, dogs with a 1-2 record off a win are 14-1-2 ATS when
facing a foe off back-to-back wins. Whew! What to do? The feeling here is the
1-2 dog is a lot hungrier than the 3-0 favorite. The decision-maker comes from
the fact that Titans head coach Jeff Fisher is 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3
or more points off a win against an opponent off a win of less than 10 points.
Take three or leave it.
TAMPA BAY over Green Bay by 1
Battle of the Bays fi nds Tampa back home off an exhilarating 3-point OT win
over Chicago while Green Bay takes to the road off Monday night’s SU and ATS
loss to the Cowboys. That loss snapped a 6-0 ATS win skein in September for the
Pack. Given the Packers’ 5-0 ATS log as dogs of 3 or more points against the NFC
South, we’ll opt for the points. If the line drops below 3, forget it.
Buffalo over ST. LOUIS by 10
Not much of a case to be made for the hapless Rams here. Not when 0-3 SU and
ATS home teams are 9-18-1 ATS, including 0-5 when hosting an undefeated foe.
Buffalo has been one of the surprise teams in 2008, for sure. It’s hard laying this
many points with them, though, as they are just 9-17-2 ATS as road favorites,
including 2-9-2 against an opponent off back-to-back losses. Then again, with
St. Louis’ 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS against winning teams under Scott Linehan
there is no way we’d entertain wasting our hard-earned money on a team that
can’t compete.
San Diego over OAKLAND by 10
With rumors circulating hot and heavy about the impending fi ring of Raider
coach Lane Kiffi n, one has to wonder about the mental approach of the Blackand-
Silver as they enter this game. And that’s a shame as this year’s team
appears much more competitive than editions past. Nonetheless, the Chargers
have owned this series (9-1 ATS the last 10 games, including 6-0 here) and
they own a gaudy 11-1 ATS mark in September on the road against avenging
opposition. The Raiders’ 2-14 ATS record at home in division games slants this
game heavily in the visitor’s favor.
DALLAS over Washington by 7
All aboard. It’s time for everyone jumping on the Cowboy bandwagon to step
up and be counted. To that we refer to Lee Corso’s favorite phrase, “Not so fast,
my friend!†Sure, they’re another 3-0 team at home in Game Four taking on a
winning opponent (these teams are 20-8 ATS). And, yes, Wade Phillips is 6-1 ATS
in games against opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. But the fact of
the matter is the Redskins are a well-schooled unit (one turnover this season)
that has given Dallas fi ts the last three seasons (4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS). They are
also 14-6-1 ATS as road dogs against division foes off a win, including 9-3 taking
6 or more points. Too many points to pass here. No leaping allowed.
Philadelphia over CHICAGO by 6
Eagles continue to soar behind a healthy Donovan McNabb while the Bears
continue to search for a quarterback they can rely upon. Granted, Kyle Orton
has given Chicago a shot in the arm early on but the fact of the matter is there is
a huge edge in Philly’s favor in this QB matchup. Ditto on the coaching sidelines
where Andy Reid reigns superior over Lovie Smith. That’s confi rmed by Reid’s
25-11 ATS road mark against an opponent off a loss, including 11-2 when he
has road rage (revenge). Conversely, Smith is just 9-14 ATS against non-division
opposition seeking revenge, including 0-6 during the fi rst six games of the
season. Andy looks just dandy here tonight.
Monday, September 29th
5* BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 17
The 2nd place Steelers host the 1st place Ravens in this battle of AFC
Central Division rivals under the Monday Night lights in a showdown of
the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses. When the Steelers come
out of the tunnel they will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-1 SU and
12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with
revenge. On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is 1-6 SU and ATS on
Mondays against division rivals when not taking double-digits. With
Marc’s PROVE IT ALL NIGHT theory (see page 2) also at work here, look
for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh
is off a loss. Our taste buds are set. Pass the ketchup.
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 26 2008 4:03am -
0 likes
LOGICAL APPROACH
P. O. Box 20405 - - - Las Vegas, NV 89112
2008 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 5
Games through September 29, 2008
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: HAWAII - 3 over San Jose State- After stepping up in class and being blown out by Florida and Oregon State - both on the road - Hawaii opens WAC play against San Jose State, a team they have had great success against over the years. Hawaii is clearly down from last season when they were unbeaten until crushed by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. They had a Bye last week and will be fresh for this contest against a team coach by ex-Hawaii coach Dick Tomey. San Jose has lost79 straight to Hawaii. Their last 4 trips to the islands have resulted in Hawaii wins by 37, 18, 9 and 24 points. This is still an intimidating place to play and Hawaii's rough experience against tougher teams will have them primed for this contest in which they still have the superior athletes. Hawaii wins 41-24.
Other Featured College Selections
Virginia + 7 over DUKE- It's clear that the fortunes of both programs are changing as Duke is improved under first season coach Cutcliffe while Virginia is in decline after winning so many close games last season that could easily have turned their 9-4 season into a losing campaign had some of those close games gone the other way. Still, Virginia has the much greater talent and is an underdog in this series for the first time since 1988 (when the Cavs did cover). Virginia lost one sided games to USC and Uconn, sandwiched around a win over I-AA/FCS Richmond. Duke has beaten I-AA/FCS James Madison and Navy sandwiched around a home loss to Northwestern. This is the ACC opener for both teams and although Duke seemingly enjoys a huge statistical edge, the quality of competition must be considered. Duke has significant concerns on defense that the heretofore struggling Virginia offense should exploit. Both teams are off of Byes and while it is acknowledged that Duke is not the patsy of seasons past, Virginia has won the last 8 games in the annual series, 7 of which have been by double digits. This one is closer but Virginia wins again, 23-17.
MICHIGAN + 6 ½ over Wisconsin- Both teams are off of Bye weeks as they open Big 10 play. Michigan has clearly struggled in dropping 2 of their first 3 games under new coach Rodriguez, although the defense has played well, especially against the run. Wisconsin is unbeaten and is favored over Michigan for the first time in at least 30 years! And they are not just favored, but favored in Ann Arbor. Michigan still has some very talented athletes and this is the Big House where Michigan is rarely an underdog. In fact, Michigan has been a home underdog just 4 times in the past decade and 2 of those were against arch rival Ohio State. In their other two home underdog games, the Wolverines upset Penn State twice - last season and in 1998. UM is playing with revenge for a 37-21 loss at Wisconsin last season. Wisky has beaten Michigan twice in the past 3 seasons, both at home. Asking Wisconsin to upset Michigan at the Big House is not that far fetched given the fortunes of both teams this season. But EXPECTING them to do so by making them favorites, especially close to a TD, IS something of a stretch. This game goes to the wire. Wisconsin wins but by just 23-20.
Nevada Reno + 4 over UNLV- UNLV seems to have turned the corner for beleaguered coach Mike Sanford who had won just 2 games in each of his first 3 seasons. Already the Rebels are 3-1 following a pair of wins over BCS teams Arizona State and Iowa State. Both wins were by 3 points in overtime and the games were draining experiences, especially the Iowa State win in which UNLV led 21-0 at the half and then allowed ISU to tie the game at the end of regulation following a 98 yard drive. Nevada is rested for this annual rivalry game in which the Wolfpack have won the last 3. Nevada has played a very tough early schedule, losing one sided contests to a pair of Top Ten teams, Texas Tech and Missouri which followed a one sided win over I-AA/FCS Grambling to open the season. The talent gap between the teams has narrowed and UNLV is not making the mistakes that have doomed them in recent seasons. Still, this is a well coached Nevada team that places great emphasis on beating their downstate rival. Nevada coach Ault has a history of success in his multiple tenures and relishes being the underdog this season. Nevada wins 28-24.
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CAROLINA - 7 over Atlanta-It's been a nice start for Atlanta in what is a season of rebuilding and their two wins in three games has to give the young Falcons great confidence. But those wins came against inept Detroit and Kansas City and both were at home. Rookie QB Ryan struggled in his lone road start at Tampa Bay. Carolina is a legitimate Playoff caliber team and should find Atlanta's defense much more yielding than the Minnesota defense they faced last week. The Panthers will also be focused and motivated to atone for back to back losses on this field to Atlanta the past two seasons. The offense should continue to improve with WR Smith back for a second straight week following his suspension. Carolina has faced a much tougher early schedule and has the much better defense. Look for that defense to confuse the Falcons and their rookie QB, focusing on taking away Atlanta's fine running game and forcing QB Ryan into mistakes. Carolina wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections:
KANSAS CITY + 9 over Denver-Denver is unbeaten through three games largely sue to their offense. In their last two games against San Diego and New Orleans, the defense was unable to protect huge early leads and that nearly cost them two wins. Kansas City is one of the weakest teams in the league and unlikely to show much improvement in the short term, turning to untested QB Tyler Thigpen to lead the offense. But the Chiefs have always enjoyed a strong home field and have defeated the Broncos in 7 of their last 9 meetings on this field.Denver has come close to losing each of their last two games - both at home - but the wins have served to inflate the line here. KC does have problems on offense although the running game did emerge last week. Denver is allowing 425 yards per game and now plays in a very hostile environment. This is the NFL and an outright upset would not be a shock. Still, Denver finds a way to win yet another close game. Denver wins but by just 20-17.
NEW ORLEANS - 6 over San Francisco- The 49ers have won two in a row while the Saints have dropped their last two. San Francisco's offense seems much improved under offensive coordinator Mike Martz and gets to face another team with defensive deficiencies. But the Saints are dropping in class after starting the season against a pair of Playoff teams from last season and much improved Denver. This becomes a game of need for New Orleans to avoid a 1-3 start and they have the more mature offense and a defense that should match up well against the 49ers' offense. The teams are meeting for a third straight season and the Saints have won the last two meetings by nearly identical 31-10 and 34-10 scores. San Francisco has narrowed the gap and the Saints have been hit by injuries to their receiving corps including TE Shockey. But the Saints have depth on offense and an improving defense and catch the 49ers still in the early stages of learning the Martz offense. The familiarity that existed last week for the 49ers against Detroit does not exist here. New Orleans puts forth their best effort of the early season this week. New Orleans wins 34-17.
Washington + 11 ½ over DALLAS- This is another long time bitter Divisional rivalry. Washington has fared well against the Cowboys of late, covering 5 of the last 6 meetings with 4 straight up wins. This is only the third time in the past decade that there's been a double digit point spread between these teams. The Underdog has covered the two previous such games and Washington''s new offense is steadily showing improvement. It's hard to find fault with anything Dallas has done this season in starting 3-0 although there are still some concerns on defense. Washington is a physical team and that could work to wear down the Cowboys in the second half, meaning the 'Skins could put points on the board when trailing by a couple of touchdowns. But much more likely is a competitively played game from the start, with the running game of Washington keeping the Dallas defense on the field for long stretches. The offense is gaining more confidence each week and the series history suggests this gets decided late. Dallas wins but by just 27-20.
posted by phantom
Sept. 26 2008 4:04am -
0 likes
Red Sheet
THE RED SHEET (90* 1-0) (89* 3-4-1) (88* 5-6-1)
ALABAMA 20 - Georgia 19 - (7:45 EDT) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 7½, and is now minus 6½. Admittedly, the 1-pt swing has moved the line from more to less than TD. Regardless, this one should be an all-out war. The Bulldogs rank #3 in the land, & deservedly so, with their defense holding SoCarolina & ArizonaSt to a combined 22 RYs the past 2 weeks. And theMoreno/Stafford combo keeps all opposing defenses honest. But the Tide has also posted a perfect 4-0 record, with impressive showings in all but one outing. A year ago, this one went into OT, & 'Bama is much improved this time around. The Bulldogs are still fairly green across their offensive line, & the Tide's 13th ranked "D" will do its part.RATING: ALABAMA 89
Western Michigan 34 - TEMPLE 14 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Western Michigan minus 3, and is now minus 3½. No questioning the improvement of the Owls, under Golden's tutelage. They've been a highly profitable play, covering 16 of their last 24, & had been 87½ pts ahead of the spread in their 13 games, previous to their trip to PennSt last week, a game in which they were totally exposed, not only by the 45-3 final, but more importantly by a 546-138 yd deficit. Not only that, but may have lost the services of their most important player, QB DiMichele, who went down with a shoulder injury. The Bronco "D" is cause for concern, of course, but without DiMichele, the dynamic has changed, & WM "O" purring all year.RATING: WESTERN MICHIGAN 89
TOLEDO 41 - Florida International 10 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Toledo minus 17, and is now minus 18½. Yes, we are aware of the fact that the Panthers have covered 2 of their 3 games to date, against no less than #18 Kansas, & #13 SouthFlorida. But the former cover was by a mere 6 pts, as the Panthers' only TD came as the result of a punt return, with Kansas calling off the dogs over the final 20 minutes. And the latter took place just a week ago, when they caught the SoFlorida off a brutal 37-34 game. Thus the draining element is squarely on the other foot in this contest, as FlaInt must now travel to take on a suddenly potent Rocketsquad (95 pts last 2 wks). Panthers have an 82-10 pt deficit on the road.RATING: TOLEDO 88
BALL STATE 51 - Kent State 20 - (12:00 Noon) -- Line opened at BallSt minus 18, and is now minus 17. They say that opposites attract, & this one certainly attracts us. Difficult to find 2 more different squads than these 2, with that Cardinal offense a thing of beauty, due to no less than 10 starters from last year's 30th ranked "O". The combo of QB Davis (10 TD passes so far), & RB Lewis (166 RYs in last week's 42-20 upset of Indiana) has them cooking. Check averaging 41.5 ppg thus far, with the Flashes allowing 48 & 44 pts in their 2 RGs to date, & in off being battered for 667 yds by Lafayette. Spread more than reasonable.RATING: BALL STATE 88
OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Troy 17 - (7:00) -- Line opened at OkahomaSt minus 17, and is still minus 17. The Trojans of Troy continue to impress. They've made it to a couple of bowls over the past 4 seasons, with a 29-pt cover over Rice in the '06 New Orleans Bowl. So their credentials have been well established, with no greater proof than their brutal battle with OhioSt just last week, when they trailed the Buckeyes by just 14-10 in the 4th. But that game had to takes its toll, & now they run smack into one of the more unappreciated teams around. Cowboys have topped 40 pts 13 times since '06, & continue production.RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 88
CAROLINA 27 - Atlanta 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Carolina minus 7, and is still minus 7. Yes, it is very unusual for us to be backing the favorite in a game involving the Panthers, as the dog has been simply golden over the past 5+ seasons. However, there has been a bit of a chink in that armor of late, with the chalk on an 8-3-1 spread run in Carolina games since last year.The return of Delhomme has resulted in a 2-1 start for the Panthers, & we have to see him doing his thing, after a less than stellar showing in Minnesota last week. The Falcons, behind QB Ryan & RB Turner, have been world beaters as hosts in the early going, but in their lone road game, both came up considerably short. Lay the wood here.RATING: CAROLINA 89
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): CentMich, Cincinnati, Michigan, Maryland -- NFL: Chargers, Bills, Steelers
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Wisconsin (-3 to -6½); FresnoSt (-3½ to -7); Illinois (+16½ to +13½); SouthernCal (-21½ to -24); Louisville (-1½ to -3½); SanDiegoSt (-9 to -11); UAB (+26½ to +24½); Marshall (+17 to +15½); Duke (-5½ to -7); Stanford (+5 to +3½); Toledo
(-17 to -18½) - NFL: StLouis (+9½ to +8).
-
TIME CHANGES: NoIllinois/EastMich: now Noon; TexasA&M/Army: now 12:30; PennSt/ Illinois: now 8:10; Texas/Arkansas: now 3:30 -
KEY INJURIES: BallSt WR Love (Head) out; Cincy QB Grutza (neck) out; EastMich QB Schmitt (shoulder) questionable; MichiganSt RB Ringer (ankle) probable; NewMexico QB Porterie (ACL) out; NorthCarolina QB Yates (ankle) out; Northwestern RB Sutton (leg) probable; OhioSt RB Wells (foot) questionable; Oregon QB Costa (ACL) out; Oregon QB Masoli (head) questionable; Temple QB DiMichele (shoulder) doubtful; TexasA&M QB McGee (shoulder) questionable; UTEP QBVittatoe (ankle) doubtful; WashingtonSt QB Lopina (shoulder) questionable.....
posted by phantom
Sept. 26 2008 4:04am -
0 likes
Denver at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Denver: 6-17 ATS as favorite
Kansas City: 20-8 ATS off road loss by 14+ points
Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 8-0 ATS off road game
Cincinnati: 0-4 ATS off loss by 6 points or less
Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Houston: 7-0 Over vs. division
Jacksonville: 9-2 Over off a win
Arizona at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 10-4 Over as road underdog
NY Jets: 11-2 ATS after playing on Monday night
San Francisco at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 10-23 ATS Away off win by 14+ points
New Orleans: 11-3 Over vs. conference opponents
Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 13-4 Under in road games
Carolina: 6-0 Under at home vs. division
Minnesota at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 5-1 Under as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Tennessee: 6-0 ATS in September
Green Bay at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 7-0 ATS Away off ATS loss
Tampa Bay: 0-7 ATS at home off Away game where both teams scored 24+ points
Buffalo at St. Louis, 4:05 ET
Buffalo: 26-8 ATS off win by 3 points or less
St. Louis: 0-7 ATS in September
San Diego at Oakland, 4:05 ET
San Diego: 8-1 ATS off BB ATS wins
Oakland: 0-7 ATS as home dog of 7 points or less
Washington at Dallas, 4:15 ET
Washington: 46-68 ATS vs. division
Dallas: 9-1 Over off DD win
Philadelphia at Chicago, 8:15 ET NBC
Philadelphia: 26-12 ATS off NFC North
Chicago: 20-7 Over vs. conference
Monday, September 29th
Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 0-8 ATS in road games
Pittsburgh: 21-9 ATS at home off non-conf game
Trends Sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, September 28
1:00 PM ARIZONA vs. NY JETS
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games
NY Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home
1:00 PM ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 6-13-4 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Atlanta
1:00 PM CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
1:00 PM DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
1:00 PM GREEN BAY vs. TAMPA BAY
Green Bay is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Green Bay is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Green Bay
1:00 PM HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
1:00 PM MINNESOTA vs. TENNESSEE
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
1:00 PM SAN FRANCISCO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Francisco is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing New Orleans
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
4:05 PM BUFFALO vs. ST. LOUIS
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
4:05 PM SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
4:15 PM WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Washington is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Dallas is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
8:15 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. CHICAGO
Philadelphia is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Chicago
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Monday, September 29
8:30 PM BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Week 4 NFL games
Sunday, September 28
Broncos (3-0) @ Chiefs (0-3)-- Major trap game for Denver squad that scored 38 ppg in winning first three games, scoring 13 TDs on 20 drives. Chiefs started three different QBs in first three weeks, lost all three by 7-15-24 points, allowing 204 rushing yards/game. Broncos are 8-4 in the last dozen series games, but lost seven of last nine visits to Arrowhead. Denver led last two games 21-3, had to hang on for dear life to win, but that was against tougher competition than this. Chiefs have four TDs on 34 drives with 14 three/outs, are -9 in sacks.
Browns (0-3) @ Bengals (0-3)-- Desperate times in Ohio; loser here falls to 0-4. Bengals showed life in OT loss at Swamp last week, converting 10-17 on third down, but they had only one TD in four trips to Giants' red zone, and have just one sack, no INTs in three games. Browns have two TDs on 28 drives. may be thinking about switching QB- they lost six of last seven in series, losing last four visits here by 10-3-17-5 pts. Only three of last 18 series games were won by less than seven points. Neither team stops run well; Browns allow 145 yds/game, Bengals 174.
Texans (0-2) @ Jaguars (1-2)-- Life still isn't back to normal in Houston area (most stoplights were still out, as of Wednesday); Texans have to be distracted, have allowed 69 points in losing first two games (gave up eight TDs on 22 drives) and are mulling QB change to Rosenfels, after Schaub (42-70, 330 passing, 4.2/4.3 ypa) was banged up last week by the Titans. Jaguars averaged 7.6 ypa in win at Indy last week, after they averaged 3.7/4.8 in first two games- they also ran ball for 236 yards with an OL that was missing two starters. In six visits here, Texans have gone WLWLWL-- home side won seven of last ten series games.
Cardinals (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)-- Arizona stayed on east coast after loss in Washington; Jets flew home cross-country early Tuesday morning, after hideous loss in San Diego, when they ran ball just 13 times, dropping to pass 50 times. Favre is prone to turnovers, but Arizona hasn't forced a turnover in last two games, after getting five in the opener. Arizona has four TD drives of 80+ yards in last two games; if Chargers can average 10 yards/pass attempt vs Jets, Arizona should do damage as well, with Fitzgerald/Boldin running amok. Jets getting killed in field position; they started eight more drives 80+ yards from end zone than their foes have.
49ers (2-1) @ Saints (1-2)-- Disappointing 0-2 road swing for Saint club that scored 56 points in two games but couldn't finish either game- they allow 133 rushing yards/game. 49ers scored 64 points in winning its last two games, as O'Sullivan becomes latest signal caller to thrive under the tutelage of QB guru Martz. Niners lost five of last six visits to Big Easy, with four of five losses by 8+ points. Saints won seven of last nine in a series that used to be divisional rivalry, winning last four by 8-3-24-21 points. Nine of last 11 series totals were 41+. Niners had good balance last week, running ball for 182 yards, passing for 188.
Falcons (2-1) @ Panthers (2-1)-- Home side won all three Atlanta tilts, with Ryan averaging 11.1/10.7 yds/pass attempt in his two home wins, but only 3.5 in his road debut at Tampa. Falcons ran ball for 318-186 in their wins, scoring eight TDs on 19 drives, but didn't score TD vs Bucs, running ball for 105 yards. Carolina went 3/out on 11 of last 22 drives, with just two TDs- they allowed 105-115-119 yards in three games so far in '08. Home side lost last five Falcon-Panther games, with Atlanta
6-2 in last eight visits here- they won last two visits here, 20-6/20-13. Six of last seven series totals at this site were 33 or less.
Vikings (1-2) @ Titans (3-0)-- Minnesota passing game improved to 6.0 ypa with Frerotte under center, after averaging 4.7/4.4 in Jackson's two starts; they're still weak in red zone, with one TD, six FG tries in eight visit inside opponents' 20-yard line, but that could be attributed to the absence of OT McKinnie (this is last game of his four-game suspension). Titans allowed just 29 points in three games (forced 15 three/outs, gave up three TDs on 35 drives)- they've run ball for 154.5 ypg. Minnesota won its only previous visit here, ten years ago- they won last four games in this seldom-played series by 6-10-18-17 points.
Packers (2-1) @ Buccaneers (2-1)-- Brian Greise turned into Dan Fouts last week, going 38-67/407, rallying Bucs from down 23-13 in last 4:40, and winning game in OT. Bucs held Atlanta to 234 yards in 24-9 win in Week 2, its only home game, vs QB making his first road start- Rodgers is making his second start on foreign soil. After running ball for 310 yds in first two games, they were just 17-47 on road last week, as Chicago committed to stopping run. Home team won ten of last twelve in series, which used to be division rivalry. Packers lost five of last six visits to this site. Six of last sever series totals were 35 or less.
3-month old son of Bucs' kicker Bryant passed away during the week, so Bucs will play this game with heavy hearts.
Bills (3-0) @ Rams (0-3)-- 38-year old Green starts at QB for a woeful St Louis club that was outscored 116-29 in first three games; if OL does not protect better than they've been doing, Green will never last a whole game, since he has concussion issues. Rams were outgained 445-133 on ground in last two games, so huge trap game for 3-0 Bills, who struggled at home vs Raiders last week, rallying at end for 24-23 win- their wins last two weeks are by combined total of five points. Rams once fired the Bills' special teams coach April, generally considered the best at his job in NFL. Game not expected to sell out; natives are very restless.
Chargers (1-2) @ Raiders (1-2)-- San Diego won last nine series games, with five of last six wins by 13+ points; they won last four visits here by 6-13-27-13 points. Oakland soap opera swirls around coach Kiffin, but Raiders are improved, scoring 23 points in each of last two games- last week's loss was bitter- they led almost whole way. Oakland had one TD on four trips inside red zone last week, bad news in a one-point loss. Chargers averaged 11.1/10.0 ypa in last two games- they've run ball for just 97.3 ypg so far. Six of last eight series totals were 40+; all three San Diego games this season went over the total.
Redskins (2-1) @ Cowboys (3-0)-- Home side won six of last seven in this intense rivalry, with Redskins 2-14 in last 16 visits here, losing last two visits here 27-10/28-23. Dallas is off pair of primetime games; they were held to 6.9 ypp last week, after averaging 10.0/10.4 in first couple games. Redskins are already +5 in turnovers, but allowed couple of 80+-yard TD drives to Cardinals last week. Double-digit favorites are 0-4 vs spread in NFL this season. Cowboys are 21-35 on third down, Skins are just 11-35, but Cowboys have yet to pick off pass thus year. Difficult to give double digits in rivalry game to capable underdog.
Eagles (2-1) @ Bears (1-2)-- Homecoming for McNabb; Bears lost last two games, both by FG-- they led 17-3 at Carolina, led Bucs 24-14 with 4:40 left, but lost both. Eagles won five of last six series games, winning last four visits here. Johnson's blitzed pummeled Big Ben last week, as they sacked Steeler QBs nine times (Pitt averaged just 3.6 ypa). Hard to imagine Orton thriving vs Johnson's blitzes after he coughed up INT/TD last week vs Bucs. Bears ran ball for 183-115-158 yards so far, but the Eagles allowed just 36-68-33 rushing yards so far. After road loss to the Cowboys, Philly needs road win to justify contender status in NFC.
Monday, Sepember 29
Ravens (2-0) @ Steelers (2-1)-- First NFL road game for rookie Flacco is in incredibly tough spot, on Monday night vs a wounded division rival (plus, Flacco transferred to Delaware from Pitt). Ravens lost six of last seven visits to this site, but won four of last five overall in series-- they ran ball for 380 yards in first two games, allowing only one TD so far on 24 drives, with 14 three/outs, but the road hasn't always been as kind to Ravens. Steelers better work on blitz pickup; Roethlisberger was sacked nine times last week, and hit lot more than that. Wouldn't be confident in Steeler chances here if Leftwich had to play instead of Big Ben.
posted by phantom
Sept. 26 2008 4:05am -
0 likes
9/25/2008
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
YOUR "TAX" GOES UP ON HIGHER FOOTBALL SPREADS
I've mentioned in the past that the public has to pay a premium when betting on the best teams or the hottest college football teams. Oddsmakers know who they're going to bet. They charge a "tax" on those teams to help offset the risk of being one-sided on a game.
What many don't realize is that the higher the pointspread, the higher the tax. There may only be a point or two involved when the spread is around a touchdown. When the spread gets to 14-17, it's more like 2-3 extra points you have to lay. When you get up to 24-28 or so, which is very common in college football with the very best teams, there may be as many as 4-5 points of tax involved.
Why is that? Why would "the bigger the spread, the bigger the tax" be the way to go?
Most top teams in the polls win by big margins when things are going well. The public sees those big victory margins every week and assumes they're going to continue. If a team is winning 48-14, or 52-10 in early action, the squares don't mind laying 24-28 points even if the "right" spread should only be 17-20. They figure USC or Oklahoma or whoever is going to keep winning. When those teams win, they win big.
They also hear from people that those coaches "have to cover" to keep their alumni happy. That's talked about all the time here in Nevada. I don't know if it's true or not. The coaches will never admit it publicly. And, the coach is the only guy who knows whether or not it's true. I can tell you this though, the public believes it's true! And, the public saw Urban Meyer call for a last second field goal for Florida that covered the Miami game a few weeks ago! To the squares, they've got "insurance" because the team might cover for them at the last second even if they don't put the game away early.
Here are the teams that oddsmakers are taxing the most right now in college football.
USC
The Trojans have been a public favorite throughout the Pete Carroll era. Well, they were skeptical of him at first. But, when he started winning, the public got on the bandwagon quick. I've told you before that Las Vegas might as well be the home city of Southern Cal the way the money comes in. Locals bet them like they're the hometown team. Squares of all types bet them because they're a national power. Sportsbooks always have to charge a premium in USC games.
It's funny. The first year USC got hot, they just kept covering all the spreads no matter how big they got. Oddsmakers would lift the number...the public would keep betting...and USC would win by bigger and bigger margins. That calmed down late in the Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush era though. And, the Trojans have had trouble living up to pointspread expectations consistently since then. They'll still win by some big margins. But they stub their toe more often than the public realizes.
I think there's about 3-4 points of tax in the Thursday Night spread this week. USC is better than Oregon State. Are they that much better? What would the spread have been before the season started? The Trojans may still cover the spread Thursday. The players will be hard-pressed to keep doing that week after week this year in my view.
GEORGIA
Man, the money has come flooding in on Georgia this year. The media has been all over them as one of the best teams in the country. Then, for two straight weeks the Bulldogs were touchdown favorites in national TV games. The public LOVES betting big name teams at single digit spreads...so the squares lines up to take Georgia.
The first game at South Carolina was a push, and could have been a loss. The second game at Arizona State was a rout though. The public won big in that game. This week Georgia is once again a touchdown favorite as they play Alabama. And, it looks like the public will be all over them again this weekend based on the money I've already seen coming in.
Georgia isn't really a "traditional" public team from recent years. Squares have been betting USC for a long time. Georgia has become the "next big thing" in college football, so the public is betting them like they've already won the championship.
OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma is a lot like USC in that they've been winning for years...and, when they win, they often put up big totals. The public loves betting on teams that score into the 50's and 60's several teams a season. They just look unbeatable on the highlight shows. Note that Oklahoma hasn't been in a big TV game yet this year. They're highlights are all over the place though, so they seem like a TV team to the public.
And, like USC, Oklahoma has had trouble running the table in recent years. They have a game or two each season where they lose their focus and risk an upset. There are others where they're not as sharp as they should be, and can't get the money as a 25-30-point favorite.
The tax will be high on Oklahoma again this year until they play a bad game.
FLORIDA
I already mentioned that field goal at the end of the Miami game. That was all the public needed to see to stay on this bandwagon even though the Gators didn't look very good. They found a way to win and cover. As long as the squares get paid every so often on a team like this, they keep on betting them.
You know, Florida had a few games last year where they didn't play very well. They were a 3-loss team and barely got by Michigan in the bowl. But, winning a national championship two seasons ago was enough to cement them in the mind of the public as championship material. USC hasn't won in awhile, yet they're still commonly accepted as a championship contender before every season. Florida looks like they'll be in the same boat for the foreseeable future. When was the last time Oklahoma won a championship? The public has a long memory!
TEXAS
Even though the Horns haven't been in the top five for awhile, they're still bet very heavily by the public. A lot of Texas money "finds" its way to Las Vegas if you know what I mean. And, we're talking about another team that wins by big scores when things are going well. You saw that this year against Florida Atlantic, UTEP, and Rice. This week's line against Arkansas is four touchdowns. It might have been half that before the season started, or even lower. The Hogs have started poorly. Texas is winning big. So far!
Most of you reading this already know to avoid betting on public teams unless there are specific handicapping fundamentals that tell you a blowout is at hand. And, even then, it's tough to make the case that overcoming the tax is +EV. What I want to emphasize today is that the tax goes up when the spread goes up. If you're going to bet teams like this, look for the more competitive games with the smaller spreads. It's easier to clear a 1-2 point tax than a 4-5 point tax.
Think about it this way:
* Georgia pushed and won against a small tax (1-0-1 ATS)
* Georgia would have been 2-0 ATS with no tax
* Georgia would have been 1-1 ATS with a bigger tax
The existence of the tax turned a win into a push. The fact that it was a smaller tax at the smaller price actually turned a potential loss into a push. It's less dangerous to play the big name teams at these smaller numbers. I wouldn't recommend at all laying big numbers with these teams. Sure, they'll win some games by 40 points. But, if there are 20 games this year with the teams above laying double digit spreads, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 9-11 ATS or worse against those expectations.
Assume 20-0 or 19-1 straight up against double digit spreads (you'd be surprised how often teams that pricey lose outright late in the season, as Ohio State did to Illinois last year, and West Virginia to Pittsburgh). I don't think you should expect 12-8 or 13-7 against the number. The hurdles are just too high. Sharps put the tax in their favor by taking the dogs and just accepting that they'll lose some ugly blowouts here and there. If you go 4-3 every seven games, it doesn't matter how ugly those losses were.
posted by phantom
Sept. 26 2008 4:06am -
0 likes
*** FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER REPORT AND TRACKING ***
** RECORDS THIS YEAR IN PARENTHESIS
(Top 2 Star Ratings Plays and Special Plays)
** NCAA NEWSLETTERS **
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (1-3)...UNLV
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP DOG (2-0)...MICHIGAN
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP EARLY (2-1)
NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (27-20)...PITTSBURGH...MICHIGAN ST...LSU...N ILLINOIS...NOTRE DAME...OHIO ST...NEBRASKA...CALIFORNIA...GEORGIA...BOWLING GREEN...OREGON...S CAROLINA...S FLORIDA...FSU...N MEX ST...SD ST...KAN ST...TEX
WINNING POINTS BEST BET (5-3)...ALABAMA...FLORIDA
WINNING POINTS PREFERRED (8-10)...WAKE FOREST...TENNESSEE...TOLEDO...IOWA
POINTWISE 1* (4-4)...CENTRAL MICHIGAN...CINCINNATI
POINTWISE 2* (0-5)...PURDUE
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (2-1-1)...WESTERN MICHIGAN
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (8-5)...NC ST...ALABAMA...MICHIGAN
THE GOLD SHEET (9-7)...LOUISVILLE...PURDUE...WASHINGTON...PENN ST
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA (9-7)...TULANE...DUKE...VA TECH...FRESNO ST...SAN JOSE ST
THE RED SHEET 90* (1-0)
THE RED SHEET 89* (3-4-1)...ALABAMA...WESTERN MICHIGAN
THE RED SHEET 88* (5-6-1)...TOLEDO...BALL ST...OKLAHOMA ST
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET (1-1)...WASHINGTON
SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET (4-9-1)...NEVADA...INDIANA...FLORIDA...TEXAS
SPORTS REPORTER RECOMMENDED (7-5-1)...SOUTH CAROLINA...EAST CAROLINA...KENTUCKY...OKLAHOMA ST
HQ REPORT 5* (2-1-1)...MICHIGAN ST
HR REPORT 4* (0-0)
HQ REPORT UPSET OF WEEK (4-0)...MARSHALL
HQ REPORT TOTAL RECALL (1-3)...ARMY/TEX A&M UNDER
HQ REPORT ATS (3-1)...CLEMSON
SPORTS INSIGHT MARKETWATCH (6-6)...SYRACUSE...NORTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (3-1)...OKLAHOMA
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (2-2)...PENN ST
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (0-3)
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (8-6-1)...LOUSIVILLE...MISS ST...PURDUE...GEORGIA...UCLA
LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (1-0)...HAWAII
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (1-2)...VIRGINIA...MICHIGAN...NEVADA
LOGICAL APPROACH MONEYLINE (1-3)
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (1-0)
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 4* (1-0)
CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 3* (0-1)
CAJUN SPORTS GATOR REPORT 2* (0-1)
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (3-0)...MARSHALL
ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (2-1)...NORTHWESTERN
MATTY BAIUNGO (THE MAXX) (1-4)...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH FLORIDA
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (5-4)...ALABAMA...COLORADO...SAN JOSE STATE
ROB VENO (SPORTS MEMO) (1-0)...PURDUE
JARED KLEIN (SPORTS MEMO) (1-0)...ILLINOIS
ERIN RYNNING (SPORTS MEMO) (1-0)
FAIRWAY JAY (SPORTS MEMO) (2-0)...WASHINGTON
TEDDY COVERS (SPORTS MEMO) (0-1)...NC ST
BRENT CROW (SPORTS MEMO) (0-2)...MISSISSIPPI
MARTY OTTO (SPORTS MEMO) (0-2)
TIM TRUSHEL (SPORTS MEMO) (1-1)
ED CASH (SPORTS MEMO) (3-0)...DUKE
DONNIE BLACK (SPORTS MEMO) (2-1)...GEORGIA
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2008 4:04am -
0 likes
SEPTEMBER 27
(4)
RED = SPECIALS
BOLD - TOP PLAYS
REGULAR - regular plays
BLUE - add on plays
ACE ACE 1 (6* 2-1) (11-5) 1000* UNDERDOG GAME OF MONTH VIRGINIA TECH -- 500 west michigan - 400 alabama -- 300 maryland
A PLAY (0-1) (3-4)
ATS 4 (15* 1-0) (4-3) (10-13) 8* GRAND SLAM TENNESSEE, MISSISSIPPI, FLORIDA STATE, NOTRE DAME -- 5 memphis
BEN BURNS 1 (4-4) (10-11) MAIN EVENT ILLINOIS --- NON CONFERENCE NOTRE DAME --- BLOWOUT GAME OF MONTH OHIO STATE
BIG AL 1 (3-1) (3* 7-4) GAME OF MONTH ALABAMA -- BIG TEN GAME OF MONTH ILLINOIS --- SOUTH FLORIDA
BILL BAILEY (100* 2-2) (3-6)
BANKER 3 (500* 1-1) (400* 4-3) (5-6) 300 pittsburgh
BLAZER 3 (4* 0-3) (3* 7-5) 4 NORTH CAROLINA - 3 ohio state, okla state
BOB BALFE 1 (16-8) iowa, houston, tenessee
BRANDON LANG 1 (20* 4-1) (8-10) 20* NEW MEX STATE - 5 bowling green
CAJUN SPORTS 1 (5* 3-1) (4* 2-4) (9-10) 4 TENNESSEE, ALABAMA, UCLA - 3 stanford
CAPPERS ACCESS 1 (14-8) indiana, purdue, alabama, nebraska
CASH 1 (2-1) (6-5) (13-9) CENTRAL FLORIDA -- FLORIDA -- central miochigan, new mex state, san diego state, hawaii, nc state
CHARLIE SPORTS 4 (500* 4-6) (17-6) 500 MICHIGAN STATE
COACHES CORNER 1 (0-1) (13-10) WASHINGTON, unlv, virginia tech
COWTOWN (2* 0-3) (9-10)
COMPUTER KIDS 1 (1-0) (10-10) oklahoma under, lsu over, iowa under
DAVE COKIN 1 (1-1) (14-15) (8-8) OHIO STATE, OKLA STATE, CALIFORNIA, PENN STATE northwestern under, wyoming under
DAVE ******** 1 (6* 0-4) (5* 0-1) (4* 12-9) 4 army
DIAMOND STAR 3 (3* 1-1) (2* 9-8) IOWA
DIRECTOR (5-4) (11-6)
DOC ENTERPRISES 3 (7* 0-1) (5* 1-2) (13-8) 5 OHIO STATE - 4 duke, michigan state, iowa
DOCTOR BOB 1 (3* 1-0) (2* 3-2) 3 BALL STATE, SO CAROLINA, STANFORD --- 2 so florida, penn state-
DOLPHIN 3 (3* 8-16) 3 miami florida
EVAN ALTEMUS (1-3) (14-11) (9-6)
EXECUTIVE (400% 1-0) (7-6)
EXPERT 1 (0-1) (4-5) (3-2) NC STATE
FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (5-3) (4-6) CENTRAL MICHIGAN, WASHINGTON
FINAL SCORE 1 (0-1) (1-4) (6-5) MICHIGAN STATE, SO CAROLINA
GAME DAY 1 (1-1) (11-8) 4 OKLAHOMA
GARDEN STATE SPORTS (5* 2-0) (8-2)
GOLD SHEET 1 (0-2) (1-3) (8-7) WESTERN MICHIGAN --- navy, northwestern, washington, maryland, okla state
GREG PRICE (0-1) (3-7) (4-4)
INSIDERS EDGE (40* 2-3) (9-5)
INSIDE STEAM (2-0) (5-11)
INSIDE INFO (2* 1-3) (8-7)
JB SPORTS 3 (2-10) (6-6) indiana
JEFFERSON SPORTS 1 (8-8) miami florida
JIM FEIST 1 (1-3) (16-7) (11-7) BLOWOUT GAME OF WEEK PURDUE --- MARSHALL, TENN UNDER, WEST MICHIGAN, WASHINGTON -- miami florida under
KELSO STURGEON 1 (100* 1-0) (50* 2-0) (15* 1-1) (10-8) 50 NORTHERN ILLINOIS
LARRY NESS 1 (2-3) (6-9) 25* CENTRAL MICHIGAN -- LV INSIDER IOWA -- 15* RIVALRY GAMEOF MONTH UNLV --- 15* BAILOUT HAWAII
LT PROFITS 1 (3* 0-1) (2* 12-6) 2 ark state, central michigan, miami florida
LV INSIDERS 3 (500* 2-2) (1-2) (6-8) 400 VIRGINIA
LV LOCKLINE 3 (50* 3-0) (7-8) 25 ohio state
LV SPORTS (11-8)
LENNY STEVENS 1 (20* 2-0) (20* 1-0) (6-8) 20* TV GAME OF MONTH NEBRASKA - 10 east carolina, auburn, penn state
MAXWELL 1 (1-2) (9-10) SEC GAME OF MONTH LSU
MIKE NERI (4* 5-1) (10-6)
MILLIONAIRES CLUB (2-0) (4-0) (1-4)
NORM HITZGES 1 (3* 2-0) (2* 8-8) (1* 9-9) OHIO STATE, OKLAHOMA, PENN STATE, OKLA STATE, COLORADO
NORTHCOAST PHONES 2 (5* 0-1) (4* 3-0) (4* 7-1) (6-5) 5 FLORIDA STATE - 4 MICHIGAN, MICHIGAN STATE, PENN STATE, WEST MICHIGAN - 3 new mexico state, notre dame
NORTHCOAST CLUB GAMES 2 (0-1) (7-13)
NORTHCOAST TOTALS 1 (4* 0-1) (8-4) 3 iowa under, wake forest under, ark state over, central florida under
NORTHCOAST SMALL COLL 2 (4* 2-2) (2-10) bowling green, no illinois, memphis, toledo
NY SPORTS (10* 2-0) (9* 1-0) (8-9)
PHENOM 1 (13-2) michigan state, west michigan, nc state, alabama
PLATINUM 1 (18-11) NOTRE DAME, penn state, central michigan, michigan, bowling green
POINTWISE 3 (4* 3-3) (8-11) 3 pitt, mississippi
POINTSPREAD MAVEN (20* 1-2) (9-7)
POWER PLAYS 1 (14-9) OKLAHOMA STATE, MIAMI FLORIDA, OREGON, AKRON, SO CAROLINA
PREFERRED PICKS 2 (5* 0-1) (4* 2-1) (3-5) NON CONFERENCE 4* GAME OF MONTH UCLA -- 4 MICHIGAN - 3 tennessee, alabama
PRIMETIME (2-2) (2-7)
PRIVATE INVESTORS (1-1) (12-12)
PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 1 (5* 1-1) (4* 8-2) (3* 9-17) 5* DUKE, WEST MICHIGAN -- 4 northern illinois, south florida - 3 nc state, alabama
PURE LOCK (5* 1-3)
RAIDER 1 (10-9) arkansas, virginia tech, washington
REED HARRIS 1 (0-1) (13-13) NC STATE, MARYLAND, tennessee, lsu, florida
RIGHT ANGLE (2* 0-1) (3-4)
ROSENTHAL (41-20)
SEBASTIAN 4 (10-3) (100* 2-0) (18-19) 300 NEBRASKA -- 200* MICHIGAN -- 100* INSIDE STEAM WASHINGTON
SCORE (500% 1-1) (400% 3-0) (7-5)
SCOTT SPREITZER 1 (2-2) (12-8) (5-6) 25* WASHINGTON --- HAMMER GAME OF MONTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN --- TKO SHOCKER MISSISSIPPI --- IOWA, MICHIGAN, oregon, san jose over, cincy over
SILVER STAR (10* 2-0) (9* 0-1) (4-8)
SLAM DUNK 1 (8-7) CENTRAL MICHIGAN
ED SLICK 3 (2* 1-1) (14-11) 1 duke, tex am
SOLID GOLD PICK 1 (1-3) (5-3) arkansas state, bowling green, penn state, west virgina
SPORTS ANALYST 1 (1-0) (1-1) (5-5) LSU, ARK STATE, toledo, penn state
SPORTS AUTHORITY (3-1) (3-0) (5* 6-3)
SPORTS BANK (500* 1-1) (400* 2-1) (2-5)
SPORTS DOCTOR (2-1) (1-0) (4-6)
SPORTS INVESTORS (10* 1-3) (6-7)
SPORTS NETWORK (1-1) (5-10) (30-17)
SPORT TRENDS (0-1) (1-0) (27-23)
SPORTS UNLIMITED (10* 0-2) (7* 0-1) (6-10)
STATISTICIAN (100* 0-1) (2-4) (0-1)
SUPER LOCK 1 (4-5) OHIO STATE
SUPER SYSTEMS 1 (4-4) (2-2) NOTRE DAME
SWAMI 1 (5-5) ohio state, ball state, western michigan
TOUCHDOWN CLUB (10* 2-1) (9* 0-1) (9-6)
THE COACH 3 (3* 1-2) (3-6) (1-6) 1 clemson
THE INSIDER (1-0) (4-3) (3-3)
THE SPORTS GURU (40* 1-3) (7-9)
TIPPS 1 (0-1) (0-1) (12-11) LSU, tcu, alabama, notre dame, penn state
TOMMY THUNDER (10* 2-0) (9* 0-2) (6-6)
TONY WRIGHT (1-1) (7-2)
TOP DAWG 1 (17-7) virginia tech, stanford, alabama, north carolina, akron, ucla, maryland
TRU-LINE 1 (2-0) (8-6) PAC TEN GAME OF MONTH WASHINGTON
UNDERDOG (4-0)
UNIVERSAL (1-2) (15-9)
USA SPORTS (3-0) (12-12)
VEGAS CONNECTION 3 (3* 1-2) (2* 6-9) (0-2) 2 MIAMI FLORIDA
VEGAS PIPELINE 1 (5-8) (2-5) NOTRE DAME, GEORGIA, UNLV
WAYNE ROOT 1 (2-0) (4-9) (12-5) PERFECT PLAY GEORGIA --- NO LIMIT TENNESSEE --- BILLIONAIRE UCLA --- MONEY MAKER NEVADA --- INNER CIRCLE NOTRE DAME --- MILLIONAIRE GAME OF YEAR michigan --- CHAIRMAN nebraska
WILDCAT (3-1) (2-3) (1-0)
WINDY CITY (10* 0-3) (9* 1-0) (6-8)
WINNERS EDGE 1 (4* 0-1) (3* 0-2) (8-8) GAME OF MONTH GEORGIA - 3 UCLA - 2 purdue
WINNERS PATH 3 (0-1) (1-1) (5-5) 3 michigan state
WISE GUYS (3* 2-2) (6-9) (0-1)
WIZARD 1 (3-3) (8-5) WEST VIRGINIA
ADDITIONAL ***
TEDDY COVERS (20* 1-0) (10* 0-2) (9-8)
SMART MONEY 1 (3-1) illinois
RON RAYMOND 1 OHIO STATE
K GLANTZ 1 LOCK OF WEEK NEBRASKA
ASA 1 6* WASHINGTON - 4 houston - 3 ohio state
STRIKE POINT 1 8* GOY WASHINGTON
GLEN McGREW 1 MISMATCH GAME OF MONTH SOUTH CAROLINA --- TV GAME OF MONTH PENN STATE
LEE STERLING 1 oklahoma, florida state, alabama, nebraska
T STRYKER 1 PERFECT SITUATION OHIO STATE
SAVANNAH 1 5* STANFORD - 4 ALABAMA - 3 buffalo, tcu
MARC LAWRENCE 1 advertised super situations -- TENNESSEE, MICHIGAN, CALIFORNIA
EZ WINNERS 1 5* WESTERN MICHIGAN, ALABAMA
ROCKETMAN 1 3 north caroliina
MIKE ROSE 1 5* OKLAHOMA STATE
ERIN RYNNING 1 20* BUFFALO
FAIRWAY JAY 1 5 nebraska
JIM KRUEGER 1 new mex state, oklahoma, ok state, so florida, washington
BOB AKMENS 1 8 UCLA - 5 ball state, cincy, miss state, nevada, temple
INDIAN COWBOY 2 PLAY OF DAY SYRACUSE - mississippi, georgia over
WIZZARD OF ODDS 2 GAME OF MONTH WASHINGTON
JOYCE STERLING 2 UNDERDOG OF WEEK WASH STATE
DONN WAGNER 2 3 indiana, michigan state
ELITE 2 BIG TEN GOY OHIO STATE
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2008 1:22pm -
0 likes
To make your decision a little easier here are the late games:
SEABASS
50* SD
100* Dal/Was over
RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH
Chargers/Raiders Under 45 -110
Erin Rynning
Raiders/ playmaker
Tim Trushel
10* san francisco
allen eastman/ace-ace
$800.00 #215 Take Washington (+11.5)
ATS
5* CHARGERS
5* EAGLES
BOB BALFE
COWBOYS
BEARS
CHARLIES
20* RAIDERS
DATAMAN
10* RAIDERS
10* BEARS
DAVE COKIN
WINDOW BILLS
FAIRWAY JAY
10* RAIDERS
10* REDSKINS/COWBOYS UNDER
10* STEELERS
10* RAVENS/STEELERS UNDER
LAS VEGAS SPORTS
EAGLES
MTi
4.5* BILLS/RAMS OVER
4* REDSKINS/COWBOYS UNDER
NORTH COAST MARQUEE
EAGLES/BEARS UNDER
POINTWISE
3* CHARGERS
3* STEELERS
PURELOCK
BILLS
SCORE
400% COWBOYS
300% BEARS
SCOTT SPREITZER
TKO REDSKINS
SPORTS UNLIMITED
4* BEARS
DOC'S
3* RAMS
DAVE MALINSKY
6* EAGLES/BEARS OVER
EZWINNERS
3* BEARS
KELSO
10 UNITS BEARS
5 UNITS CHARGERS
5 UNITS REDSKINS
NSA
10* BILLS
10* COWBOYS
10* CHARGERS
MIKE NERI
3* CHARGERS
Pointwise Phone Plays
2* Buffalo
2* San Francisco
Tom Stryker
4 * Chargers
Frank Patron
10,000 unit lock - Redskins +11
Dr. Bob
2* 49ERS +5
KBHOOPS
4* Bears +3
3* Cowboys -10.5
3* Rams +9
rocketman
4 san fran +4.5
3 wash +11
Billy Coleman
4* SD
3* Wash
3* Philly
Maddux Sports
NFL - 3 units on San Francisco +5
NFL - 3 units on Oakland +7.5
Indian Cowboy
Sf +5.5 (pod)
ppp
4 sf
3G
4* Oakland
4* Bears
JEFFERSONSPORTS
San Francisco+5
San Diego-7
ROOT
Chairman- Cowboys
Millionaire- Bears
Billionaire- Raiders
Jim Feist
Personal 49ers
Tony George
4 Units on Denver
texas insiders
100 dallas
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2008 2:54pm