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1. SPORTS REPORTER

   Vol. 34, No. 4 WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2008

   COLLEGE

   WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

   KANSAS STATE over *LOUISVILLE by 1

   The Petrino-to-Kragthorpe contrast at Louisville has been stark. If the Cards don’t pick it up

   soon, the spoiled, angry, entitled Papa Johners might send the East Carolina security crew

   after their head coach. Lots of offense from the 2007 versions of these teams landed in the

   NFL this year. Unfortunately for Louisville’s defense, K-State’s yardage-making QB Freeman

   remains while Hunter Cant-“Do It”-Well hasn’t been much more than a name with a number

   for Louisville. KANSAS STATE, 23-22.

   THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

   *COLORADO over WEST VIRGINIA by 2

   Our Zone Blitz rated West Virginia’s 2008 investment prospects as “Poor”, so don’t be looking

   for one of those boring, generic forecasts that says something like, “West Virginia should

   be just fine post-Rodriguez.” It just doesn’t have to be that way. Colorado to visitor: ‘We’ve

   got rushing speed to match your rushing speed, we’ve got defensive contain speed for the

   edges you love to exploit, and our quarterback was raised to throw the ball first.’ For Cody

   Hawkins, throwing it into the visitor’s 3-3-5 defense is a bit of a sticky wicket, for he is sometimes

   a little too fearless for his own good. But West Virginia is off turf, on grass, at altitude,

   in trouble. COLORADO, 29-27.

   FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

   *CONNECTICUT over BAYLOR by 17

   “That quarterback makes everybody look slow," said Washington State’s head coach about

   Baylor freshman Griffin, who has helped generate 51- and 45-point home outings for the

   Briles bunch. But UConn has the first defense that will offer resistance against him – quick,

   can’t be bullied by Baylor’s personnel, hurries and sacks quarterbacks and produces more

   than its share of picks. With ball-controlling RB Andre Brown being launched into a Baylor

   defense looking for steals it won’t get, UConn’s non-scoring drives should pin Baylor far

   enough back and onto long fields in their first road game, where all the fun could begin if

   your ticket is stamped “UConn.” CONNECTICUT, 34-17.

   SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

   *PENN STATE over TEMPLE by 24

   ‘Owl see ya’ soon.’ Five members of the Temple coaching staff return home to Happy Valley,

   where they played under JoePa. It is not likely that the patriarch will want to embarrass his

   protégés, but Temple will have trouble containing a potent Lion offense so the potential for a

   blowout exists. Buffalo put up 444 total yards on Al Golden’s squad and PSU won’t do any

   less than that. The backups might get a good number of at-bats given the fact that Illinois is

   in the on-deck circle. PENN STATE, 38-14.

   BEST BET

   CENTRAL FLORIDA over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 1

   Boston College’s offensive strength is its receivers, not a fantastic thing when the new

   starting quarterback has yet to prove he can get them the ball in the right spots, or avoid

   throwing it to the other team. Chris Crane’s Yards Per Attempt after two games is only

   4.7. Ugh. He isn’t a threat to run around and make plays with his legs. Central Florida’s

   defensive strength is its secondary, so this match-up within the match-up could be an

   advantage waiting to play out in UCF’s favor. Central Florida backers might have to live

   with scrappy lefty Greco at quarterback, and know that he won’t be stretching this

   defense any with his arm. But O’Leary is very good at tailoring his offense to the available

   personnel, and with two weeks to get ready, perhaps he inserts the bigger-armed

   mystery man Joe Weatherford to mess ‘em up? CENTRAL FLORIDA, 17-16.

   *NORTHWESTERN over OHIO by 7

   Frankie Solich’s first-ever game as head coach of Ohio resulted in his new bunch o’ boys

   being drubbed 38-14 by Northwestern on this field in 2005, when his staff was putting relative

   strangers on the field against opponents the staff didn’t know. Ohio didn’t score an

   offensive touchdown until four minutes remained. But the Bobcats have a more coherent

   group at this juncture, the assistants now into a fourth year on the mission. The opportunity

   for a win Big Ten country is still an opportunity for a win in Big Ten country, which Ohio

   accomplished at Illinois the very next season and almost accomplished at Ohio State earlier

   this month. Your Northwestern will play down to the perceived level of the opponent if you let

   them. NORTHWESTERN, 30-23.

   SUPER BEST BET

   MIAMI-OH over *CINCINNATI by 9

   Ben Mauk, former Cincinnati quarterback, was denied his sixth season by the NCAA.

   Current Cincinnati quarterback Dustin Grutza, the living, breathing reason they were

   pushing hard for Mauk’s sixth season, was injured in the team’s most recent game at

   Oklahoma, and out. Suddenly, a Cincinnati team whose defense took advantage of every

   new-QB weakness during a 5-0 SU and ATS non-conference season a year ago assumes

   ownership of issues similar to what their vanquished foes in the rear-view were dealing

   with. What goes around comes around, eh? You can only hope that the Bearcats insert

   big-headed Notre Dame deserter Demetrius Jackson, whose “knowledge base” of the

   offense leaves a lot to be desired, according to coach Kelly. “Strong-armed” junior Tony

   Pike is more than likely to be taking the majority of the snaps, but 6’6”, 210 “strongarmed”

   quarterbacks making their first start are not candidates to be threading needles

   on the run, sidestepping blitzes, or executing a full playbook of confounding offensive

   maneuvers. The visiting Redhawks’ offense has looked like Deadhawks against

   Vanderbilt and Michigan, a pair of very salty defensive units. Cincinnati’s defense is kind

   of fake. Is this finally the game where verbally abused QB Daniel Raudabaugh has

   matured, meets an opponent in trouble, and turns some tables for Miami-OH? His own

   team’s defense is very underrated and they all have “47-10” written on the wall from the

   regional rivalry home loss a year ago. Besides a fumble, three interceptions and a

   blocked punt, Miami-OH allowed five sacks in that embarrassment. But they have a fine

   chance to minimize the bonehead and negative-yardage plays this time around, with

   their offensive backfield situation seriously stabilized compared to where it was a year

   ago. MIAMI-OH, 26-17.

   RECOMMENDED

   *MISSISSIPPI over VANDERBILT by 14

   The ‘Dores rely heavily on front man Chris Nickson for offense. Judging by his 71-yard

   passing effort against defensive lightweight Rice, Ole Miss will make the Vandy QB chuck

   it to win it. Rebel general Houston Nutt saw this offense two years ago when he was at

   Arkansas. His defense effectively had an extra week to prep after hosting Samford last

   week. As for his offense, Nutt’s massive offensive line will be the first to challenge

   Vanderbilt’s front seven – the weakness of the unit. Whether running standard sets or the

   “Wild Rebel” formation, the home team has too much quickness, speed, and bulk on

   offense meaning that Nickson will be directing a comeback – not his cup of tea. OLE

   MISS, 27-13.

   *GEORGIA TECH over MISSISSIPPI STATE by 6

   With this game providing the meat to an Auburn-LSU scheduling sandwich, how much prep

   work can you really expect Croom & Co. to do on Gtech’s option game? Jacket QB Nesbitt is

   now battle tested after putting up nice numbers at Virginia Tech last week meaning that the

   offense should continue to improve. They won’t put up 30+ on a good SEC defense, but they

   won’t have to. MSU’s plotting offense thrives against a weak front 7. Yellow Jackets aren’t

   Auburn, but they’re defensive front can sting and Croom’s Bulldogs are allergic to the end

   zone. GEORGIA TECH, 20-14.

   *BYU over WYOMING by 25

   This rivalry is not Auburn-Alabama within college football circles, but these two teams (especially

   Wyoming) take it seriously. BYU’s demolition of UCLA last week will drive an inflated

   number here (6 scoring drives started in Bruin territory), but the Cowboy offense does not

   give much hope for risk-happy backers just hoping the road dog can hang around. They had

   216 total yards against Air Force and 78 yards in the first half against North Dakota State.

   Not good enough against an offensive-machine – even if your respectable defense is up for

   the challenge. BYU, 37-12.

   LSU over *AUBURN by 5

   Auburn’s new offensive system has yet to take, for lack of playmakers. They’ve relied on the

   defense and will likely need to again this Saturday. LSU has yet to play anybody, so it is best

   to take their success with a grain of salt. QB’s Hatch and Lee can hand off well, but will have

   to throw the ball downfield to keep a sinister Tiger defense at bay. That isn’t their strength.

   Both clubs know the importance of this game – the winner here has won the SEC West six

   of the last eight years. LSU’s depth and speed at RB will be the difference in a defensive

   showdown. LSU, 21-16.

   ALABAMA over *ARKANSAS by 12

   If Alabama’s offensive line comes to play, Arkansas won’t have a shot at an upset. Andre

   Smith headlines a bruising group that will open holes for the tailbacks for four quarters. The

   Tide is not a big-play offense – their scoring drives vs. Western Kentucky averaged 8 plays

   – so the Hogs may be able to hang around for a half. Petrino’s bunch has been at their best

   using big plays in the running game to open up the passing lanes, but it will likely be a “chuck

   and duck” approach after they fall behind. Tough to gauge where Arkansas is prep-wise after

   having their game with Texas mercifully called off mid-week last week. ALABAMA, 26-14.

   *SOUTHERN MISS over MARSHALL by 6

   The Blundering Herd was –4 in TO Ratio in last season’s 33-24 defeat vs. ex-coach Bower’s

   Southern Miss team. Maybe they clean up after themselves this time? For the new Southern

   Miss team, non-conference scrimmages are over. Now, first-season head coach Larry Fedora

   and crew must do their new spread offense against opponents who know their personnel and

   are coached by coaches they don’t know. Mark Snyder’s Marshall plan for 2008 includes new

   offensive and defensive coordinators. Too bad the personnel still isn’t much, but Snyder has

   promised tangible improvement by the defense, which manifested itself in a 17-16 score in

   the C-USA opener against what were normally more productive Memphis kids. SOUTHERN

   MISS, 23-17

   HOUSTON over *COLORADO STATE by 11

   If the Cougars want to throw it all over the field for 500 yards – which they do – can Colorado

   State’s defense stop them? The onus here is all on the relatively simple Colorado State

   offense. This unit must use its straight-ahead push vs. a suspect defensive group, to stay on

   the field to reduce the high risks its defense takes just by lining up on every play. Eventually,

   however, Houston’s defense will adjust to what the Rams are doing on offense, and Colorado

   State will run out of bullets while its defense continues to get ripped. HOUSTON, 38-27.

   RUTGERS over *NAVY by 3

   The early anti-Rutgers suggestion in the Zone Blitz is now 2-0 for our Premier Players callers

   via game-day releases on Fresno State and North Carolina, who beat Rutgers by 17 and 32

   points on the expensive home field where you can fry eggs on the expectation-addled heads

   of deluded New Jerseyans. Our entire community knows we have no interest in Rutgers until

   Big East season starts, at the earliest. Our entire community might even know that if Navy’s

   special teams had shown up last season, the loss at Rutgers would have been a lot closer

   than 41-24. Two extra days to prepare gives Rutgers’ small and depth-shy defensive front –

   “surprisingly” overpowered to some by Fresno and North Carolina – a chance to bone up on

   the option and save some face vs. the little guys. RUTGERS, 28-25.

   *NORTH CAROLINA over VIRGINIA TECH by 1

   Lost in the shuffle of UNC’s pounding of Rutgers was the fact that the Scarlet Knights actually

   ran the ball well. You can bet that Beamer and his staff will go to school on that because

   that is all they can do. QB Tyrod Taylor was 9-for-14 for 48 yards against Georgia Tech last

   week and that tells you all you need to know. UNC is tough to tackle due to their offensive

   versatility. They outgained V-Tech in Blacksburg last year and will likely do so again this year.

   As long as QB Yates doesn’t force throws and gets the ball to guys like Brendan Tate and Greg

   Jones, Butch Davis’ group will pull a Ted Nugent and take a “Stranglehold” on the ACC

   Coastal division. NORTH CAROLINA, 24-23.

   *PITTSBURGH over IOWA by 2

   Dopey Dave and the Wannstedts have opened 0-2 ATS but they might be riding an up-curve

   in the offense as relatively inexperienced starting QB Stull feels his way around the field.

   Pitt’s two weeks to get ready for this can’t hurt, because the Hawkeyes’ offense – which

   started a new QB in its rivalry revenge grind vs. Iowa State last week – is flatter than a bottle

   of seltzer left uncapped for two years. Iowa is sandwiched between a rivalry revenge win

   and Big Ten opener, but their defense is good, and Wannstedt and his Pitt-boy Cavanaugh

   usually find ways to keep the underdog in the game. PITTSBURGH, 16-14.

   *FLORIDA STATE over WAKE FOREST by 5

   30-0 was the final tally the last time Wake played in Tallahassee – the defining moment in

   the fall of the FSU program. But a new skyline is starting to take shape. QB Christian Ponder

   doesn’t fit the mold of his predecessors Rix and Weatherford. This kid actually thinks before

   throwing, a novel concept for a quarterback. He also puts more pressure on the defense with

   his feet, which is important given the youth on the o-line.Wake is as clinical as they come –

   armed with vets across the board. They won’t beat themselves and have had a bye week to

   tune up. With six defensive starters still on suspension, the Deacons will look to control the

   football with misdirection runs and precision short-range passing. The FSU coaches are wellversed

   in what Wake wants to do – question is – can they stop it? FLORIDA STATE, 28-23.

   BEST BET

   NOTRE DAME over *MICHIGAN STATE by 5

   As long as the offense remains determined to avoid being poster boys for the Negative

   Yardage Play Club like last year, improved defense will help elevate Notre Dame’s value

   in ’08. Sparty’s offense has owned the Irish defense for two years in a row, but their

   Ringer of a running back will find faster Irish players surrounding him, and this now-overrated

   Michigan State offense – held back to 17 points by rain last Saturday – is far from

   entitled to get more than that here if the weather is good. You might want to take note

   that the Michigan State defense – serious sackmeisters in ’07 – sacked Cal’s quarterback

   only once in the opener but Maryland’s defense sacked Cal’s quarterback five times

   last Saturday. If the sack-it-to-‘em dynamic has disappeared for State, then they are just

   another common team. NOTRE DAME, 24-19.

   *OREGON over BOISE STATE by 17

   The smurf turf kids struggle when stepping up a class playing BCS conference foes on the

   road. They fell to Washington last year and the Ducks – well – they’re a completely different

   animal. Bronco coach Peterson brings a freshman QB into a raucous Autzen Stadium so

   expect the kid to hand off on first, second, and third downs. Oregon could be a bit leg weary

   from the 4 hour, double OT battle in 90+ degree heat last week against Purdue, where they

   had to extend themselves just to get back into that game. Over the course of 60 minutes

   Oregon has too much depth and too many athletes to drop one at home to a physically inferior

   opponent. OREGON, 34-17.

   UTAH over *AIR FORCE by 3

   Let’s try to avoid the usual mistaken perception that since Utah is, on balance, much bigger

   and decidedly faster than Air Force, that they should steamroll the Falcons off the field. Utah’s

   defense has consistently displayed an inability to get off the field against this kind of offense

   – see non-cover in bowl win vs. Navy, outright loss to Air Force last year, 3-point win and

   non-cover vs. Air Force the year before that, three-point win and non-cover vs. Air Force the

   year before that. Utah’s QB Brian Johnson can’t really be trusted vertically beyond 12 yards,

   and if you can’t deep-6 the Air Force secondary, you are almost forced to be in a ballgame

   on their terms. UTAH, 26-23.

   *TULSA over NEW MEXICO by 9

   Tulsa is about as defensive as Switzerland and must keep New Mexico from ball-hogging

   with their running game. Lobo coach Rocky Long wants to grind this one from the opening

   kick, keeping the ball out of the eye of the Golden Hurricane’s lethal offense. His defensive

   will have only a few days to prepare for an offense that plugged in a new QB without losing

   much. Home team is 2-0 on the road this year and finally gets a home game off of bye week.

   Despite the step-up in weight class, Tulsa has too much offense for the offensively-challenged

   road dog to overcome. TULSA, 30-21.

   *INDIANA over BALL STATE by 7

   Brady Hoke’s zippy Ball boys – our Premier Players’ 4-Star game-day winner last Saturday

   in their MAC opener at the sluggish Akronisms – would like to become conference champs

   this season. Indiana is not in their conference. Ball’s revenge and social-climbing angles are

   tempered by being in a MAC sandwich with Kent State on deck, home. Also, the home

   Hoosiers were off last week, haven’t left their Bloomington base since summer workouts

   started, saw the in-state visitor last year, and therefore have some preparation edges to go

   along with offensive and defensive quickness that usually work well for them when matched

   against speed-finesse opponents like this one. INDIANA, 34-27.

   *PURDUE over CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 8

   How many Purdue players signed up to play Central Michigan three times within a year?

   Can’t imagine too much giddy-up goin’ on in West Lafayette this week. Does CMU head

   coach Jones revert from previously established tank-jobber form on the power-conference

   road, and go for “third time’s the charm” following 45-22 (regular) and 51-48 (bowl) losses

   last year? Both normally productive hurry-up offenses have seen the swiss cheese on the

   other side of the line more than enough times to be dreaming about big yardage and big

   points coming up. Some dreams come true. PURDUE, 42-34.

   AKRON over *ARMY by 8

   Normally, this is a situation where we can’t help but think, “All Army,” with a big, fat circle

   around it. They are 0-2 SU, playing at home and coming off a bye, with revenge. Akron is out

   on the non-conference road – at an Independent, no less -- sandwiched between the MAC

   and home opener vs. Ball State, and an intra-state rivalry crack on their home field vs.

   Cincinnati of the Big East. But when the opponent scores first, or first and second, Army has

   that mistake-prone, Wizard of Oz offense with QB Carson Williams: “I can’t come back, I don’t

   know how it works!” If you don’t believe us, then listen to Army’s head coach: “This is a

   process. There's no magic words. There's no magic wand that's waved over everything.”

   See? AKRON, 24-16.

   *MARYLAND over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 18

   If the EMUs use 6’1”, 226 senior RB Terrence Blevins as their main weapon between the

   tackles, launching him at that undersized Maryland defensive front, they could stay on the

   field and be pesky. Few brave point-spread warriors will be interested in the visitors after

   they allowed 580 and 480 yards the last two games. But with Maryland’s win against Cal

   taking some heat off his seat, coach Ralphie Boy might be doing too much quarterback juggling

   and allow Mr. Handoff, Josh Portis, to test his arm in a real game for the first time in

   four years at the expense of favorite players. MARYLAND, 34-16.

   MIAMI-FL over *TEXAS A&M by 3

   Both squads come in fresh off of a bye week. A win here would certainly help. The Canes will

   run a low-risk offense with young QBs on the road, asking their defense to keep them in it.

   That strategy should work against an A&M team that is feeling its way through year one of

   the Sherman era. Their new, pro-style offense has looked amateur to date and should not

   pose much of a threat against a stout Miami defense. Risky proposition backing either side,

   but this is Randy Shannon’s second year at the wheel and he’s had a chance to navigate the

   choppy waters of year one. MIAMI-FL, 13-10.

   EAST CAROLINA over *NC STATE by 6

   Jeopardy answer: 13. Jeopardy question: What is, ‘How many quarters has it been since NC

   State scored a TD against a BCS conference opponent?’ Last we checked, East Carolina

   would not fall into that category but does it really matter? Message is that the Wolfpack

   offense stinks. Now that’s unfortunate because this game has upset potential written all over

   it. Over-valued road favorite coming off of a tough road win. Unfortunately, it is hard to back

   a squad that can’t score. Against Clemson last week, NC State had seven drives of 6+ plays

   – but only three points from the offense. Sorry Tom O’Brien, your fellas are showing signs of

   improvement, but we just can’t go there. EAST CAROLINA, 23-17.

   *MISSOURI over BUFFALO by 34

   Missouri might be favored over the Buffalo Bills given the way their offense is performing.

   Chase Daniel will have no problem picking apart a porous defense in order to get his

   Heisman stats. Buffalo boss Turner Gill has Big 12 ties from his days at Nebraska, but he’ll

   be spending time prepping for conference foe Central Michigan next week. No look ahead for

   the Tigers, as they have a game with Bye State next week. MISSOURI, 43-9.

   FRESNO STATE over *TOLEDO by 6

   Toledo is still a work in progress – going from a run-based team last year to what was supposed

   to be a passing team this year. They were only 8-for-18 throwing it last week, but that

   was in a light monsoon. Fresno held their own against the Wisconsin power rushing attack

   last week, so Toledo must go to the air to compete. Opportunities should exist, as they have

   three WRs who go 6’4+ facing corners that are sub-6 feet. After an emotionally draining loss

   at home, it will be tough for Fresno to leave the California sun for the overcast skies of Toledo,

   OH. Luckily for Pat Hill, he has better players who should be able to win on the road with talent

   alone. FRESNO STATE, 27-21.

   *TEXAS over RICE by 30

   Big recruiting opportunity for Rice when facing the state bully. For that reason alone, they will

   leave it all on the field, but it is their third straight roadie and there is a very winnable game

   with North Texas next week. The Owls’ offensive strength is their passing attack, which plays

   to Texas’ weakness. The Longhorns man a young secondary that will be chasing a good bit

   on Saturday. That said, if Rice scored on every possession, Texas still might win. Their hulking

   o-line faces a small defensive front that has three guys under 250 pounds. Longhorns

   threw for over 300 yards and hit for 5.7 ypc against Rice last year. TEXAS, 51-21.

   *UTAH STATE over IDAHO by 2

   When conference doormats collide, does it make a sound? Idaho outgained Utah State by

   150 yards last year but walked away with a 24-19 loss. Their offense is better this year, but

   they’re not playing in the comfy confines of their dome. Utah State has the defensive edge

   and the home field advantage, so we’ll lean toward the Aggies. UTAH STATE, 23-21.

   TCU over *SMU by 25

   An SMU offense in the early stages of winging it all over the field is in position to be out-positioned

   by a pick-happy TCU defense. Warning to all SMU backers – your quarterback might

   have the gun pointed at his own team, and your defense cannot afford to be placed in vulnerable

   spots against an offense that can plow through ‘em and pass over ‘em. TCU, 42-17.

   FLORIDA over *TENNESSEE by 4

   The team with more rush yards in this rivalry has won 16 of the last 18. UT has averaged 13

   yards on the ground against Florida in the last two years. You can guess the outcomes. The

   Vols’ coaches know this and will look to pound the football into the heart of the Gators’ weakness

   – the defensive front. They are talented, but relatively inexperienced, especially in a

   hostile environment. 7+ play drives must be the name of this game because their offense

   cannot keep up with Florida’s. Tebow’s offense has yet to fire on all cylinders, but they were

   off last week and will be ready to do damage. FLORIDA, 28-24.

   BEST BET

   *ARIZONA STATE over GEORGIA by 6

   The Charlie Daniels Band has to re-title their hit song, ‘cause the devil isn’t going down

   to Georgia this week – it’s the other way around. ASU’s bout of narcolepsy against UNLV

   last Saturday is a wake up call for Sun Devil backers. ASU has a seasoned QB and four

   talented wide receivers that will give UGA trouble all night. The Dawgs’ scoring defense

   has been solid, but both Central Michigan and South Carolina were able to find holes in

   the secondary and move the ball through the air between the 20s. Both of those teams

   lacked the athletes in the backfield to punch the ball in the end zone, but the home dog

   doesn’t have that problem. Georgia’s pass rush has been very average, and will get to

   Carpenter some – but the kid is used to playing through the pressure. Look for the Devils

   to use the passing game to run the Bulldogs’ linebackers, corners, and safeties ragged

   in the 95 degree desert heat. On offense, Mark Richt’s team is extremely effective when

   RB Moreno gets going – opening up the play-action for QB Stafford. ASU’s run defense

   is solid and won’t let the Heisman candidate run free. ASU, 30-24.

   *UNLV over IOWA STATE by 1

   Iowa State has lost 12 straight on the road and after UNLV’s upset win over ASU, #13 is all

   but etched in stone, right?. Maybe wet cement, but not stone. Last week’s 17-5 loss at Iowa

   looks bad on the surface, but it was 3-3 after three quarters and the Cyclones were inside

   the 5 twice and came up with nothing. The Rebels have momentum, but ISU coach Chizik is

   a defensive guru who will make life difficult for Mike Sanford’s offense. UNLV 17-16.

   *STANFORD over SAN JOSE STATE by 7

   Neither team will be outmatched athletically – which is a week-to-week rarity. SJSU coach

   Tomey wants to control clock with the running game as he has been able to do against

   Nebraska and SDSU. The Cardinal run defense is improving and should be able to contain

   SJSU’s skill players better than they did against Oregon State and TCU. Stanford has Pac-10

   athletes, San Jose has a few Pac-10 transfers. STANFORD, 27-20.

   *UTEP over NEW MEXICO STATE by 10

   NMSU looked bad on both sides of the ball at Nebraska – but we’ll give them the first game

   reprieve. UTEP will be off of a bye week and has had time to game plan for the Aggie passing

   attack. The Miners have moved towards a 3-3-5 defense to plug the holes in their pass

   defense. Two things potential UTEP backers should keep in mind – (i) they put a lot of energy

   into the Texas game in week two; and (ii) these schools are only 44 miles apart, so the

   visitors will be travelling light. UTEP, 37-27.

   BEST BET

   ARIZONA over *UCLA by 14

   Arizona expected to be 3-0 rolling into L.A., but a loss to New Mexico de-railed that train.

   Coach Mike Stoops’ head is on the block this year and he needs a statement game this

   week. He faces a UCLA team that is only in game #3 of the Neuheisel/Chow era. Word

   on the street is that the ’Zona coaching staff sees Chow as more of a bum than a guru.

   Either way, the transition pain was felt in full last week and now they limp home from

   Salt Lake City licking their wounds – or gashes – from a 59-0 beating at the hands of

   BYU. The Wildcats have a veteran offense that should have no problem picking apart a

   youthful secondary. QB Tuitama is in his second year of the Sonny Dykes Texas Tech-style

   offense and he has several athletic targets to choose from. Throw in some timely run

   plays and you get a recipe for offensive success. Bruins’ QB Craft starts just his third

   game behind an inexperienced offensive line that does more thinking than reacting. The

   perception of these two teams is that both are mid-tier Pac-10 squads. The reality is that

   UCLA isn’t there yet, and the gap will show on the scoreboard. ARIZONA, 34-20.

   *OHIO STATE over TROY by 16

   Last week, humiliation at USC. Next week, the Big Ten opener vs. Minnesota. Ohio State

   probably doesn’t know enough about Troy to avoid a stale-meat scare in this particular sandwich.

   It doesn’t help OSU that focus for Troy – a program that has a giant-killing mentality

   vs. the meek, mail-in money-scrimmage mindset -- shifted to Ohio State on September 3,

   the minute their September 6 game at LSU was canceled. OHIO STATE, 32-16.

   *ARKANSAS STATE over MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 11

   One should not be fooled by Middle Tennessee’s win against Maryland (we weren’t: Premier

   Players got Maryland, +14 vs. Cal!), or their follow-up close game at Kentucky. It’s a return

   to blah status for the Blue Raiders as they visit a familiar Sun Belt rival. Maryland didn’t apply

   the defensive pressure at MTS they applied vs. Cal, and admitted they were fooled by MTS’

   hurry-up-and-wait offensive tactics at the line of scrimmage. Kentucky didn’t know them

   from a hole in the wall, either. ASU knows them as the opponent who returned a first-playof-

   the-game fumble back for a TD against them to set the tone of last year’s 24-7 loss, when

   ASU’s best running back Arnold was less than 100% healthy. ARKANSAS STATE, 28-17.

   RECOMMENDED

   LOUISIANA-MONROE over *TULANE by 5

   Monrovian systems that have produced 19-7 ATS last two-plus seasons are interesting.

   Senior QB Kinsmon Lancaster has yet to throw an interception this year and comes with

   a 4.8 yards per carry value tag attached. Tulane drops in class from Alabama and East

   Carolina, but Alabama was off a specially targeted Clemson win, and ECU was off their

   targeted, back-to-back wins against V-Tech and West Virginia. ‘Ya think either ‘Bama or

   the Pirates were properly focused for Tulane, whose players are now accepting congratulations

   for two losses? By contrast, the intra-state Sun Belt visitor catches the Green

   Wave in a tricky spot, between conference home games against ECU and SMU, with the

   SMU game coming up off a short week, televised nationally on CSN. The Monrovians

   have a bye week on deck. Therefore, the Flying Weatherbees will be the first 2008 opponent

   directing their A-game at Tulane. LOUISIANA-MONROE, 27-22.

   *MINNESOTA over FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 12

   How does money-bags $chnellenberger make two consecutive pick-up runs coming from

   the Sunshine State into Big Ten territory, again on artificial turf, over which his grassy defense

   usually Matadors, and come away looking good on the scoreboard in the second outing when

   he has the Sun Belt opener on deck and this opponent has revenge? If he does, we will be

   very disappointed. In the dome, he has no chance for that faker defense to be protected by

   rain and wind like it was during the 17-0 game at Michigan State last Saturday. But at least

   they’ll score more. MINNESOTA, 42-30.

   SOUTH FLORIDA over *FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL by 24

   USF head coach Jim Leavitt must protect that Florida recruiting base from being sweettalked

   by former Miami-FL manipulator and now FIU head coach Cristobal, who loves to blitz

   on every down. But South Florida can do that too, with better players against a popgun

   offense, and USF QB Matt Grothe can tuck it in and run for 120 yards once the hair-on-fire

   FIU energy is dissipated early. SOUTH FLORIDA, 34-10.

   *LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE over KENT STATE by 3

   Both starting quarterbacks – visiting Edelman and home Desormeaux -- are team-killing bad

   passers. Desormeaux took his game to a new low last Saturday when he kept it, ran into an

   Illinois defender at the line of scrimmage, then had the ball grabbed away from him and run

   back for a defensive TD against ULL. How to deflate your teammates’ energy and hopes.

   LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE, 23-20.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 16, 2008 4:05pm
2. CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

   PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES

   CKO Vol. 47 Sept. 18 - 22, 2008 No. 4

   11 *MINNESOTA over Florida Atlantic

   Late Score Forecast:

   *MINNESOTA 38 - Florida Atlantic 19

   In last week’s pointspread push against Michigan State, the Owls got a huge break with the weather. A nearly

   constant rain put a blanket on the Spartan passing game and kept the MSU offense from scoring a lot more. FAU

   will have no such ally this week against rejuvenated, offensively-potent, revenge-minded Minnesota, which

   plays indoors at the Metrodome. The Owls allowed Spartan RB Ringer to ramble for 282 yards, and the FAU

   defense ranks 105th in the country. Minnesota has shown dramatic improvement on defense this season under

   new d.c. Ted Roof, and there really was never any question about the offense with dual-threat QB Adam Weber,

   star WR Eric Decker, and a vet OL springing a variety of solid RBs. The injury to TB Duane Bennett (4.1 ypc LY)

   isn’t a crushing blow to Gophers, as California true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (turned down Nebraska and Washington)

   ran for 114 yards & 3 scores last week vs. Montana St. and fellow frosh Shady Salamon (5 ypc) are

   ready to roll.

   10 RUTGERS at *Navy

   Late Score Forecast:

   RUTGERS 35 - *Navy 20

   Few teams (other than Notre Dame) have succeeded vs. Navy’s option offense as well as Rutgers under Greg

   Schiano, who is 5-1 SU and vs. the spread vs. the Midshipmen, with all wins by six points or more. And Navy

   has struggled more than expected to far this season following the departure of HC Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech,

   as the Middie backfield has been plagued by key injuries (now FB Eric Kettani has a strained hamstring; check

   status) and the veteran secondary has failed to solidify vs. the pass. All of that is good news for Rutgers, which

   is 0-2 after losses to ascending Fresno and North Carolina. With Ray Rice gone to the NFL, the Scarlet Knights

   are counting more on their deep and speedy cast of WRs TY. And Schiano still has enough veteran talent on

   defense to disrupt the Navy option.

   10 VANDERBILT over *Ole Miss

   Late Score Forecast:

   VANDERBILT 27 - *Ole Miss 22

   Granted, Ole Miss appears an improved side under new HC Houston Nutt. But SEC sources also alerting us to

   pay attention to developments at Vandy, where HC Bobby Johnson’s consistent recruiting efforts have closed

   the “talent gap” that long hindered Dores vs. conference opposition, helping the Nashville bunch to its first 3-0

   start since 1984. Vandy now owns the sort of SEC-caliber playmakers it has long lacked, and Johnson has

   spiced up attack accordingly by featuring electric DBs D.J. Moore & Jamie Graham on offensive end (both

   effective on Wake Forest-like “orbit sweeps”). Dores (least-penalized team in SEC; QB Nickson no picks in first

   3 games) not beating themselves these days, either. Trust series and team trends (Vandy 6-1 vs. line last 7

   meetings; Dores 12-4 as road dog since ‘05) to continue.

   10 MIAMI-OHIO over *Cincinnati

   Late Score Forecast:

   MIAMI-OHIO 20 - *Cincinnati 19

   Long-time Midwest scouts rather surprised Cincy is still a double-digit favorite in 134th meeting for the Victory

   Bell, considering journeyman jr. QB Pike (3 ints. in only 31 career attempts) and/or soph D. Jones (Notre Dame

   transfer) are piloting the no-huddle attack for injured starter Grutza, who was in a groove until suffering broken

   ankle vs. Oklahoma. We doubt either QB ready to pick up the slack vs. a fired-up Miami-Ohio defense aching to

   atone for its embarrassingly-poor effort in 47-10 blowout vs. Bearcats year ago. Miami’s terrific trio of LBs (all

   3 are Butkus Award candidates!) well-equipped to contain Cincy’s ground attack, as well as effectively blitz

   stationary 6-6 Pike, who’ll show hesitation in pocket sans established rapport with his WRs. On other side,

   RedHawks battle-tested jr. QB Raudabaugh (793 YP) now able to work play-action with vet WRs, thanks to productive

   soph RB Merriweather (210 YR so far; he missed ‘07 game with injury) commanding attention from Bearcat

   defense that’s “not playing physical enough,” according to disgruntled HC Kelly. Miami solid 6-1 last 7 as a road dog.

   10 *ATLANTA over Kansas City

   Late Score Forecast:

   *ATLANTA 28 - Kansas City 13

   (Sunday, September 21)

   Atlanta has turned the page and appears set to make some real progress this season, and one key test will come

   in this game against the Chiefs. The Falcon running game is much more lively with free agent RB Michael Turner

   and third year pro Jerious Norwood combining for 373 YR and 6.6 ypc in the first two games. Although Atlanta

   rookie QB Matt Ryan made some mistakes last week under the pressure of the Buc defense (4 sacks, threw 2

   ints. at Tampa), returning home against a team that ranked 28th against the run last season and yielded 300 YR

   last week against the Raiders, he figures to play more like he did in home-opening win against Detroit. Injury to

   K.C. QBs Croyle and Huard might leave them with No. 3 Thigpen, and Chiefs 0-9 SU last 9 visiting non-AFC West foes.

   TOTALS: UNDER (42) in the Cincy-N.Y. Giants game—Bengals (8.5 ppg) can’t get offense going; G-Men (9-3 “under” last 12 at home) prefer to smother

   opponents with defense...OVER (44½) in the Detroit-San Francisco game—Lions’ defense resembling a sieve; Detroit has gone “over” 14 of last 18 away!

   HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): CENTRAL FLORIDA (+11) at Boston College—UCF has covered 5 of last 6 as dog and owns stalwart defense

   to contain BC offense trying to adjust to life without Matt Ryan...IOWA (+1) at Pittsburgh—Pitt’s LeSean McCoy isn’t sneaking up on teams this season (3.8

   ypc TY after 4.8 as a true frosh). Hawkeye “D” ranks 1st in scoring and allows just 3 ypc...AIR FORCE (+7½) vs. Utah—A trip to Colorado Springs not easy

   to prepare for, and sr. QB Shea Smith executing much like Shaun Carney did the last 4 years...TENNESSEE (+7½) vs. Florida—Certainly respect Florida QB

   Tebow, but revenge-minded Vols aren’t anybody’s patsy at jam-packed Neyland Stadium...DENVER (-5½) vs. New Orleans—Uplifting win against Chargers

   and emergence of WR Eddie Royal to complement Brandon Marshall make Broncos worth a look facing Saint team still dealing with defensive problems.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 16, 2008 4:06pm
3. THE GOLD SHEET

   VOLUME 52 SEPTEMBER 18 - 22, 2008 NO. 4

   NFL ANALYSIS

   KEY RELEASES

   HOUSTON by 7 over Tennessee

   CAROLINA by 9 over Minnesota

   OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Jets-San Diego game

   __________________________________________

   SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

   ATLANTA 23 - Kansas City 16—A smashmouth fest could be in the offing,

   with Larry Johnson of the Chiefs opposing Michael Turner (220 YR in opener)

   of the Falcons. However, K.C.’s rebuilding OL could not spring Johnson (12 for

   22 rushing) last week nor could its defense stop the Raiders (300 YR!) Chiefs

   no pushover on the road, covering 7 of last 9 excursions. But is Matt Ryan the

   best QB in the game, even as a rookie?

   (04-KANSAS CITY -3' 56-10...SR: Kansas City 5-1)

   BUFFALO 24 - Oakland 10—With reports circulating that he might soon be

   fired, Lane Kiffin’s Raiders generated 300 YR in their win last week in K.C., and

   then he denied accusations of dissension on the team. Meanwhile, outspoken

   former Oakland DT Warren Sapp, never one to sugar-coat criticism, isn’t too

   high on Oakland’s chances TY, telling watchers of HBO’s Inside the NFL that

   the Raiders have “unrealistic ideas about what their people can do.” That

   comment speaks for itelf. So does the Bills’ 11-3 pointspread record their last

   14 at home. Buffalo QB Trent Edwards making few mistakes.

   (05-OAKLAND -3 38-17...SR: Oakland 19-17)

   􀂋􀂋􀂋Houston 20 - TENNESSEE 13—Even without the unexpected “bye”

   week and distractions caused by Hurricane Ike, Houston figured to have its

   hands full with the rock’em, sock’em Tennessee defense that was respectfully

   referred to as some “animals” by Jag QB David Garrard. But Titans still seeking

   to develop consistency under new o.c. Heimerdinger’s play-calling, and Kerry

   Collins is hampered by Tennessee’s WR limitations. Scouts still believe rookie

   RB Steve Slaton could be a rainmaker for Texans. And, now, well-rested, wellcoached

   Houston eager to avoid 0-2 start and stay close in AFC South race.

   (07-Tenn. 38-HOU. 36...T.23-18 T.39/155 H.12/39 H.27/44/3/294 T.25/42/0/267 T.2 H.3)

   (07-TENN. 28-Hou. 20...T.23-17 T.29/153 H.25/119 T.21/31/1/229 H.20/35/1/196 T.0 H.1)

   (07-Tennessee -1 38-36, TENNESSEE -3' 28-20...SR: Tennessee 10-2)

   NY GIANTS 30 - Cincinnati 10—The situation has become even more

   distracting than the controversies at the MSNBC political anchor desk for

   downtrodden Cincy, which has already let a rookie QB (Ravens’ Joe Flacco)

   and a journeyman (Titans’ Kerry Collins) beat it TY. Now, Bengals faced with

   supremely-confident Super Bowl-winning QB Eli Manning, off near-flawless

   effort (260 YP & 3 TDP) vs. another troubled foe, St. Louis. Not to mention

   highly-athletic Giant stop unit that is affording d.c. Spagnuolo all sorts of

   flexibility in blitz and coverage packages, hardly what the anemic Cincy “O” (8.5

   ppg) needs right now. G-Men on 8-0 spread run dating to late LY!

   (04-CINCY -6 23-22...SR: Cincinnati 5-2)

   Arizona 23 - WASHINGTON 21—Ready to grab the points with Arizona,

   which appears steady on offense with Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin & Larry

   Fitzgerald & Co. and possesses a little more bite on defense in 2008 with the

   return of DE Bertrand Berry, OLB Chike Okeafor, and S Adrian Wilson after

   injuries LY, plus free-agent DE Travis LaBoy joining the proceedings. Cards

   have given up only 23 points TY.

   (07-WASH. 21-Ariz. 19...A.19-10 A.30/84 W.28/73 A.28/42/2/280 W.12/18/1/87 W.0 A.1)

   (07-WASHINGTON -8 21-19...SR: Washington 72-44-2)

   NEW ENGLAND 22 - Miami 13—Tom Brady and Randy Moss were way too

   much for the downtrodden Dolphins LY. Miami is still down in the dumps, but not

   as deep in the muck as LY. And, of course, Pats adjusting to life without their

   MVP QB. Thus, will give the Dolphins one more shot, despite last week’s early

   defensive collapse in Arizona, until we find New England’s new, true balancing

   point with Matt Cassel (16 of 23, 0 TDs, 0 ints. in first start) at QB.

   (07-N. Eng. 49-MIAMI 28...M.25-23 M.30/179 N.22/84 N.22/28/1/359 M.24/37/1/203 N.0 M.1)

   (07-N. ENG. 28-Miami 7...N.19-15 N.25/196 M.22/108 N.18/33/2/204 M.18/41/0/133 N.2 M.0)

   (07-New England -16 49-28, NEW ENGLAND -22 28-7...SR: Miami 48-37)

   CHICAGO 27 - Tampa Bay 20—Will T.B. return to Jeff Garcia (who denies his

   ankle was so sore as to keep him sidelined last week), or stick with Brian Griese,

   who was 3-3 as a starter for the Bears in 2007 before a shoulder injury and is now

   1-0 TY with the Bucs? Since Chicago QB Orton avoiding TOs (none so far) and

   T.B. 3-6 SU last 1+ seasons on the road, will side with improved Bears (check

   status of Devin Hester’s rib injury). Chicago has had a knack of going “over” at

   home lately (15-4 of last 19).

   (06-CHICAGO -13' 34-31 (OT)...SR: Chicago 35-17)

   􀂋􀂋􀂋Carolina 22 - MINNESOTA 13—All of the pieces seem to be in place for

   Minnesota…except at QB (no wonder owner Zygi Wilf risked tampering charges

   with his interest in Brett Favre during the summer!). But as long as it’s Tarvaris

   Jackson, have little interest supporting Vikes vs. quality foes, of which

   rebounding Carolina (2-0 for first time since ’03 Super Bowl year) certainly

   qualifies. Tough-minded Panthers and physical Oregon rookie RB J. Stewart

   (77 YR & 2 TDs vs. rugged Bears) not likely to abandon infantry assault as do

   most Minnesota foes. Jake Delhomme smiling from Charlotte to Greensboro

   this week with return of home run WR Steve Smith from suspension, especially

   vs. Minny secondary.

   (06-MINNESOTA P 16-13 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 4-3)

   SEATTLE 27 - St. Louis 20—St. Louis happy to be facing a fellow troubled

   team after being clobbered at Philly and by Super Bowl champion Giants the

   first two weeks. Rams sporting a 5-13 spread mark last 18 games. But at least

   their top (RB Steven Jackson) & top WR (Torry Holt) are healthy, something

   injury-plagued Seahawks can’t say. Matt Hasselbeck (2 damaging ints. last

   week vs. S.F.) misses his favorite targets.

   (07-SEA. 33-St. Lou. 6...Se.19-15 Se.32/100 St.17/53 Se.18/35/1/189 St.21/40/3/168 Se.0 St.2)

   (07-Sea. 24-ST. LOU. 19...Se.18-17 St.31/104 Se.19/87 Se.21/38/1/215 St.23/37/2/161 Se.1 St.0)

   (07-SEATTLE -8 33-6, Seattle -3 24-19...SR: EVEN 10-10)

   SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Detroit 23—S.F. offensive coordinator Mike Martz

   against the team that fired him after LY, with Jim Colletto hired to develop a

   more worthy ground game so the Lions can better exploit the talents of WRs

   Roy Williams & Calvin Johnson. Also, new 49er starting QB J.T. O’Sullivan

   rode the pine in Detroit LY. So, will this be a game of egos? S.F. prefers to

   make it more one of defense after the Lions have been ripped for 921 yards &

   82 points in the first two games.

   (06-San Francisco +6 19-13...SR: San Francisco 33-27-1)

   DENVER 31 - New Orleans 24—Bronco offense being sparked by its WRs,

   with super-quick rookie WR Eddie Royal (14 recs) seemingly the perfect

   complement to the 6-4, 230 Brandon Marshall, who had 18 catches vs. S.D.

   And, while 2008 N.O. defense might be improved, it has some holes after three

   starters missed action in last week’s 29-24 loss at Washington. Deuce

   McAllister (only 2 carries TY) not 100%. No surprise if this one goes “over,” as

   Denver “over” 18 of its last 23, while Saints “over” 15 of 21!

   (04-Denver -5 34-13...SR: Denver 6-2)

   Pittsburgh 20 - PHILADELPHIA 17—With Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder

   having passed the test last week at Cleveland, Steelers have a lot going for

   them early in the season. A healthy RB Willie Parker, two outstanding WRs in

   Hines Ward & deep threat Santonio Holmes, a fierce and mobile set of LBs

   (again), and Troy Polamalu’s presence in the secondary. Eagles have not been

   a dominating home favorite, and they are 11-6-1 “under” last 18 at home.

   (2008 Preseason: Pittsburgh -1 beat Philadelphia 16-10 in Pittsburgh)

   (04-PITTSBURGH +1 27-3...SR: Philadelphia 46-27-3)

   INDIANAPOLIS 23 - Jacksonville 13—After doses of Matt Forte and Adrian

   Peterson the past two weeks, Indy might finally catch a break against bangedup,

   makeshift Jacksonville OL that has neither been able to open many holes

   for Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew nor provide much protection for the

   harried David Garrard, who’s already thrown as many picks (3) as he did all of

   ’07. Indy ground forces have gone nowhere yet, but at least Colts have Peyton

   Manning and a bounce in their step again after dramatic late rally at

   Minnesota. Jags (only 13 ppg) hard-pressed to outscore competent

   oppositon until further notice.

   (07-Indy 29-JACK. 7...I.24-18 I.33/141 J.27/117 I.23/37/1/243 J.17/36/2/109 I.0 J.1)

   (07-INDY 28-Jack. 25...J.27-19 J.31/168 I.25/63 I.20/29/1/279 J.24/29/1/243 I.0 J.1)

   (07-Indianapolis -3 29-7, INDIANAPOLIS -6' 28-25...SR: Indianapolis 11-3)

   Cleveland 20 - BALTIMORE 16—Cleveland QB Derek Anderson was 2-0 in

   2007 vs. the Baltimore team that probably should never have let him go. Now,

   Anderson owns a significant experience edge over rookie Joe Flacco, who’s

   making just his second start after facing a Cincy team of few strengths in his

   first-ever game before being “hurricaned out” at Houston. Cleveland owns the

   superior receivers, and Browns pleased to be taking on someone their own size

   after dealing with Cowboys and Steelers first two weeks.

   (07-CLE. 27-Balt. 13...B.16-12 B.20/111 C.30/99 B.34/53/1/307 C.10/18/1/204 C.0 B.1)

   (07-Cle. 33-BALT. 30 (OT)...B.23-22 B.25/128 C.34/117 C.24/38/1/263 B.22/41/2/240 C.1 B.2)

   (07-CLEVELAND +4 27-13, Cleveland -2' 33-30 (OT)...SR: Baltimore 11-7)

   it in the irregular meetings of these two, with the host going 14-2 SU the last 27

   years. Brett Favre was injured after throwing 2 ints. in LY’s meeting, with Aaron

   Rodgers (18 of 26, 1 TD) enjoying the best and most extensive performance of

   his career until taking over this season. Tony Romo had 4 TDP in the game,

   which the Cowboys led 27-10 midway in the third Q. But that was in Dallas. Have

   to be impressed with the way Rodgers is already “looking off” DBs and hitting

   alternate targets. Note: Packers “over” 16 of last 20. TV—NBC

   (07-DALLAS 37-G. Bay 27...D.23-20 G.19/124 D.28/105 D.19/30/1/309 G.23/40/2/233 D.0 G.0)

   (07-DALLAS -7 37-27...SR: Dallas 15-12)

   MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

   􀂋􀂋􀂋OVER THE TOTAL *SAN DIEGO 28 - NY Jets 26—Chargers upset

   about getting the worst of the officiating last week in Denver, and they also

   greatly miss the intimidating presence of OLB Shawne Merriman, as the

   remaining S.D. pass rushers were able to apply little pressure last week in

   Denver, with Jay Cutler sacked only once while passing for 350 yards and 4

   TDs, plus the game-winning two-pointer. That gave the Bolts two straight lastsecond

   losses. With L.T. limping, maybe they don’t pull away from Favre, who

   can trade throws with Philip Rivers and help put this one “over.”

   CABLE TV—ESPN

   (05-San Diego -6 31-26...SR: San Diego 18-12-1)

   COLLEGE ANALYSIS

   KEY RELEASES

   COLORADO by 7 over West Virginia (Thursday, September 18)

   OHIO Plus over Northwestern

   SOUTHERN MISS by 21 over Marshall

   MINNESOTA by 19 over Florida Atlantic

   THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

   􀂋􀂋􀂋*COLORADO 24 - West Virginia 17—Both teams off last week. Key

   question is whether WV can get its offense going after 5 Patrick White TDP in

   opener vs. Villanova, but then only 3 points & 251 yards at East Carolina?

   Colorado sees plenty of spread offenses in the Big XII, allowing 23 ppg LY vs.

   Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas and Texas Tech, but 55 to Mizzou. Buffs need some

   ball control from frosh RB Darrell Scott to help scrappy QB Hawkins.

   CABLE TV—ESPN (FIRST MEETING)

   FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

   *CONNECTICUT 33 - Baylor 13—Sure, moribund Baylor program getting

   jolt of excitement from electric new QB Robert Griffin (school-record 217 YR on

   just 11 carries last week). But this is the precocious true frosh’s first road start.

   UConn’s veteran defense hasn’t allowed a meaningful TD in first 3 games, jr.

   RB Donald Brown has 566 YR (2nd in nation) & 8 TDs, and Huskies 15-4 vs.

   spread last 19 at Hartford. CABLE TV—ESPN2 (FIRST MEETING)

   SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

   PENN STATE 42 - Temple 10—Al Golden has Temple off to a 3-0 spread

   start, and Owls have better athletes than in past. That being said, Penn State

   has a deep and explosive offense capable of covering big numbers, and Joe

   Paterno has a history of laying the wood to outmanned foes (12-3 last 15 laying

   double digits). Possible lookahead to Illinois and Nittany Lion defensive attrition

   only potential Penn State stumbling blocks.

   (07-Penn St. 31-TEMPLE 0...P.25-16 P.41/202 T.23/4 P.22/33/1/260 T.26/43/0/238 P.1 T.1)

   (07-Penn State -25' 31-0 06-PENN STATE -36' 47-0...SR: Penn State 33-3-1)

   BOSTON COLLEGE 17 - Ucf 13—Retooling UCF attack doesn’t appear

   capable of generating much against BC’s rock-ribbed front 7. Still, it’s clear that

   new Eagle QB Crane (only 248 YP in first 2 games) is no Matt Ryan. Knights

   have very experienced defense, and “technicals” (UCF 5-1 last 6 as dog; BC

   just 4-9 previous 13 as chalk) say take points. (FIRST MEETING)

   􀂋􀂋􀂋Ohio 30 - NORTHWESTERN 31—Ohio U. got a major bounce-back

   performance from QB Boo Jackson (365 YP, 3 TDs, 0 ints.) subbing for the

   injured Theo Scott last week, and hungry 0-3 Bobcats capable of putting up a

   fight. Undefeated Northwestern has faced a much less-demanding schedule

   than Ohio, and the two teams have given up basically the same amount of

   yards. NU 3-10 last 13 as a home favorite; Bobcats 7-3 last 10 as a road dog.

   (05-NORTHWESTERN -14' 38-14...SR: Northwestern 2-1)

   *CINCINNATI 23 - Miami-Ohio 21—Cincy has seized upper hand lately in

   rivalry that dates to 19th century. Sr. QB Grutza’s broken leg at Oklahoma

   leaves Bearcats with little experience under center. However, superior

   athleticism on defense might still allow Cincy to make it 3 straight over Miami.

   But no surprise if battle-tested jr. QB Raudabaugh & trio of top-notch LBs help

   revenge-minded RedHawks (7-1 last 8 as road dog) take this one to wire.

   (07-Cincy 47-MIAMI 10...C.24-21 C.42/141 M.24/56 C.26/37/0/297 M.27/54/3/267 C.0 M.1)

   (07-Cincy -7 47-10 06-CINCY -11' 24-10 05-MIAMI -10 44-16...SR: Miami-Ohio 59-46-7)

   *MISSISSIPPI 28 - Vanderbilt 27—In battle between two vastly-improved

   squads, prefer to “take” with 3-0 Vandy, now 9-3 last 12 as an SEC dog,

   including minor upset in Oxford in ‘06. Ole Miss’ strong-armed QB Sneed will

   be seriously tested by veteran, ball-hawking Vandy 2ndary that impressively

   skunked prolific Rice aerial assault in 2nd H of 38-21 Nashville victory week ago.

   ‘Dores dual-threat QB Nickson (268 YR, 5.5 ypc, 5 TDs, no ints. TY) & 5-10 jr.

   RB Hawkins (242 YR, 4.8 ypc) will gash a still-developing Rebel defense that’s

   allowed points in 7 of 8 Qs vs. FBS squads.

   (07-VANDY 31-Miss. 17...V.25-13 V.49/183 M.32/54 M.11/22/1/208 V.18/26/0/200 V.1 M.0)

   (07-VANDY -6 31-17 06-MISS. +1' 17-10 05-VANDY -2' 31-23...SR: Miss. 46-34-2)

   GEORGIA TECH 23 - Mississippi State 16—Despite facing rock-ribbed

   defensive squads of Boston College & Virginia Tech, GT’s mobile & surprisingly

   strong-armed soph QB Nesbitt (261 YR, 4.8 ypc; 43-yd TD pass vs. Virginia

   Tech) has run Paul Johnson’s well-designed attack with precision and fluidity.

   Nesbitt & RBs Dwyer & Cox find room vs. over-aggressive Bulldog stop unit

   defense that must play “assignment” defense vs. a clever option attack it so

   rarely faces. Meanwhile, still offensively -punchless MSU attack hard-pressed

   to establish its bread and butter run attack vs. Engineers seasoned & stout DL.

   (DNP...SR: Georgia Tech 2-0)

   BYU 45 - Wyoming 7—Sure, must pay higher price following BYU’s 59-0

   blasting vs. UCLA. But that won’t dissuade us from bucking still-wallowing

   Wyo, a ghastly 2-15-1 vs. spread last 18 on board. Cougs sizzling QB Hall

   (78%,1,095 YP) will continue to put up eye-popping numbers vs. a Cowboy

   2ndary that allowed Ohio to throw for 248. BCS-bowl seeking Cougs easily

   cover their 5th straight in series vs. Wyo squad still lacking any substantial QB

   production (meager 90 YP vs North Dakota St.!)

   07-Byu 35-WYO. 10...B.27-19 B.36/135 W.24/9 B.28/40/0/362 W.24/40/1/268 B.0 W.0)

   (07-Byu -10' 35-10 06-BYU -18' 55-7 05-Byu -4 35-21...SR: BYU 41-30-3)

   *AUBURN 16 - Lsu 13—In clash between two similar SEC West

   contenders, give slight edge to Auburn squad buoyed by vociferous fan support

   in Jordan-Hare Stadium, where host is 30-7 SU since 2003. LSU’s potent

   stable of RBs will have rough time vs. fierce AU front 7 (2 ypc), putting undue

   pressure on inexperienced QBs Hatch and/or J. Lee, who’ve had it easy thus

   far. While Auburn’s new spread attack is a work in progress (315 yds., but only

   a FG vs. Miss. St.), believe capable QB Todd able to effectively work some playaction

   passes vs. untested LSU 2ndary breaking in new CBs in their 1st game away

   from Baton Rouge. AU hasn’t lost two straight in series since ‘95-‘96. TV-ESPN

   (07-LSU 30-Auburn 24...L.23-16 L.33/169 A.35/97 L.22/35/1/319 A.18/28/0/199 L.1 A.0)

   (07-LSU -10 30-24 06-AUBURN -3' 7-3 05-LSU -6 20-17 (OT)...SR: LSU 22-19-1)

   Alabama 23 - ARKANSAS 19—Though youthful Arkansas has eked out

   victories vs. Western Illinois & UL Monroe (remember, Warhawks upset Bama

   LY), still inclined to take a more generous number vs. Bama squad with just one

   SEC road win by more a TD since ‘05. Hogs battle-tested, 6-2 sr. QB Casey

   Dick has quickly developed rapport with soph TE D. J. Williams & prized frosh

   WR J. Adams (combined 20 catches), while versatile 5-7 RB M. Smith (157 YR

   & 4 catches in ‘08 debut vs. ULM) keeps Tide LBs at bay.

   (07-ALA. 41-Ark. 38...Al.24-22 Ar.53/301 Al.34/123 Al.24/45/2/327 Ar.12/25/1/149 Al.1 Ar.2)

   (07-ALA. -3 41-38 06-ARK. -2' 24-23 (OT) 05-ALA. -15' 24-13...SR: Alabama 22-15)

   􀂋􀂋􀂋SOUTHERN MISS 37 - Marshall 16—Former Oklahoma State o.c.

   Larry Fedora’s attack still a work in progress at Southern Miss, although

   maturing RS frosh QB Austin Davis has developed nice rapport with all-conf. sr.

   TE Shawn Nelson (19 catches for 228 yards in last 2 games). Much rather lay

   points than take them with Marshall, which is money-burning 4-19 vs. spread its

   last 23 on road!

   (07-S. Miss 33-MAR. 24...S.21-20 S.41/160 M.31/99 S.23/30/0/310 M.20/38/3/309 S.0 M.1)

   (07-Usm -3' 33-24 06-USM -7 42-7 05-Usm -7 27-24 (OT)...SR: Southern Miss 3-0)

   Houston 35 - COLORADO STATE 23 Houston “D” has been put in positions

   as awkward as Sarah Palin during her interview with Charlie Gibson last week.

   But pedestrian CSU attack not likely to cause the sort of problems that highpowered

   Ok. State and precision-based Air Force presented in last two games.

   With Rams still unable to establish credible infantry diversion, trust prolific Coug QB

   Keenum (13 TDP already!) to fire more scoring shots than CSU counterpart Farris.

   (07-HOU. 38-Colo. St. 27...H.22-13 H.44/153 C.38/126 H.22/31/1/247 C.16/26/1/227 H.1 C.1)

   (07-HOUSTON -6' 38-27...SR: Houston 2-0)

   Rutgers 30 - NAVY 24—Which is fixable of what obviously ails these two?

   Measured vote for Rutgers’ psyche, admittedly on shaky side after sloppy home

   defeats vs. Fresno and UNC. But Navy apparently missing Paul Johnson’s

   shrewd game management more than anticipated, and undersized Mid “D”

   helpless vs. competent opposition. Maybe Scarlet Knights don’t qualify as such

   in current state, but remember Navy option is no secret to Rutgers “D” that has

   kept it check in recent meetings.

   (07-RUTGERS 41-Navy 24...R.24-20 N.54/254 R.43/210 R.14/19/1/266 N.5/12/3/35 R.0 N.0)

   (07-RUTGERS -16 41-24 06-Rutgers +2' 34-0 05-RUTGERS -6' 31-21...SR: EVEN 11-11-1)

   NORTH CAROLINA 24 - Virginia Tech 19—Key early clash in ACC’s wideopen

   Coastal Division. Is up-and-coming Carolina ready to knock off old-guard

   Va. Tech? Wouldn’t sell Hokies short, as wily old HC Beamer still has enough

   defense & special teams to prevail in close games. Current reality, however,

   finds Tar Heels with HUGE edge in terms of overall offensive firepower. UNC sr.

   WR/return man Tate has 616 all-purpose yards in just 2 games, inhaling 356 of

   those on just 13 touches from scrimmage!.

   (07-VA. TECH 17-N. Car. 10...N.18-13 V.36/165 N.45/124 N.16/25/1/182 V.11/20/1/76 V.0 N.1)

   (07-TECH -19 17-10 06-Tech -13 35-10 05-TECH -23' 30-3...SR: Virginia Tech 16-9-6)

   Iowa 21 - PITTSBURGH 16—Iowa defense, led by emerging soph DE

   Clayborn (leads team with 21 tackles) and sr. DTs King & Kroul, has been a

   dominant unit thus far, allowing just 2 FGs in three games. Hawkeyes took a

   safety with 28 secs. left to give away the cover against Iowa St. last week, but

   Pitt won’t be so lucky. Panther RB LeSean McCoy will find the Iowa front 7 a bit

   tougher than Bowling Green or Buffalo. (DNP...SR: Pitt 2-1)

   *Wake Forest 23 - FLORIDA STATE 20—Although several TGS scouts

   insist slumbering giant is waking in Tallahassee, not ready to buck well-coached

   Wake based solely on revenge-minded Seminoles’ easy wins over lightweights

   W. Carolina & Chattanooga. Acknowledge that FSU offense looks much

   sharper with resourceful soph Ponder at trigger. But suspension-strapped

   Seminoles (see Special Ticker) still not at full strength, so prefer to side with crafty

   QB Skinner (72% last 1+ seasons) & Deacons’ play-making defense. TV-ESPN2

   (07-W. FOR. 24-Fla. St. 21...W.18-14 W.48/180 F.24/47 F.24/48/2/283 W.19/27/2/215 W.1 F.2)

   (07-WFU +5' 24-21 06-Wfu +8' 30-0 05-FSU -21 41-24...SR: Florida State 21-4-1)

   MICHIGAN STATE 28 - Notre Dame 16—Not sure ND can maintain

   emotional edge that fueled 21-0 start at home against Michigan last week. Irish

   defense yielded 131 YR to Wolverine RB McGuffie & 6.6 ypc to SDS RB

   Sullivan, so Spartans’ Javon Ringer (166 ypg rushing; 9 TDs) figures to give

   rebuilt ND DL major problems. Ranking 96th in total offense an indication the

   Irish attack has improved only incrementally over last season (last in the nation

   in ‘07). HC Charlie Weis traveling/coaching with busted knee ligaments. TV—ABC

   (07-Mich. St. 31-N. DAME 14...M.19-9 M.49/219 N.35/117 M.11/24/1/135 N.11/20/0/86 M.1 N.1)

   (07-Msu -10' 31-14 06-Und -3 40-37 05-Msu +5' 44-41 (OT)...SR: Notre Dame 44-26-1)

   OREGON 31 - Boise State 26—There’s more evidence than against O.J.

   Simpson in his latest trial that there’s really nothing to fear in Pac-10 (outside of

   USC) this season. And even though Oregon displaying Crater Lake-like depth at

   skill positions (capable juco Masoli & true frosh Harper likely to handle QB duties

   after starter Roper injured knee late at Purdue), WAC sources say Boise HC

   Petersen very satisfied with steady progress of new RS frosh QB Moore, who’s

   hit 72% of his passes in early going, with plethora of established complementary

   weapons at his disposal. (FIRST MEETING)

   Utah 27 - AIR FORCE 26—Plenty of early positives both ways. But if there’s

   a foe that might be able to exploit Utah’s troubling cluster of DL injuries (as

   limited Utah State could not last week), it’s Air Force, especially with Falc option

   game hardly missing a beat with new QB Shea Smith, and even more dangerous

   when bread-and-butter dive plays gaining consistent chunks of yardage (as they

   did in AFA’s 334 YR in last year’s upset win at Salt Lake City). Falcs 11-3 vs.

   line for HC Calhoun!

   (07-A. Force 20-UTAH 12...A.20-15 A.63/334 U.33/73 U.20/39/2/240 A.8/14/0/56 A.1 U.0)

   (07-Air Force +7' 20-12 06-Utah -1 17-14 05-UTAH -7 38-35...SR: Air Force 14-10)

   *TULSA 41 - New Mexico 27—That was a Mariano Rivera-like “save” for

   New Mexico and HC Rocky Long last week vs. Arizona, as natives had become

   restless in Albuquerque after 0-2 start. But things won’t get any easier for Lobos

   vs. potent (52 ppg!) and rested Tulsa bunch that has been so excellent on attack

   end that HC Graham hasn’t been able get juco QB Bower promised snaps

   because of new starter David Johnson’s flawless execution (NCAA-best 241

   passer rating!). (DNP...SR: EVEN 2-2)

   *INDIANA 31 - Ball State 30—Vet Ball State attack led by efficient QB Nate

   Davis (39 TD passes, just 9 ints. last 16 games) capable of trading scores all the

   way against Indiana. Hoosier QB Lewis has looked sharp in leading Indiana to

   a pair of victories against W. Ky. and Murray St., but Indiana facing a tougher foe

   in Brady Hoke’s explosive Falcons.

   (07-IND. 38-Ball St. 20...B.22-19 I.31/108 B.32/67 I.22/35/1/354 B.27/49/2/345 I.2 B.0)

   (07-INDIANA -6' 38-20 06-Indiana -3' 24-23...SR: Indiana 4-0)

   PURDUE 40 - Central Michigan 24—Purdue players seemed upbeat in

   postgame interviews after leading 20-3 against Oregon last week, only to lose in

   OT. Certainly, Boiler QB Curtis Painter can’t wait to face the CMU defense, after

   he threw for 906 yds. & 6 TDs in a pair of victories over the Chippewas last

   season. MAC MVP QB Dan LeFevour will move the ball, but the CMU pass

   defense ranks 108th.

   (07-PURDUE 45-C. Mich. 22...P.30-23 P.37/223 C.33/101 C.35/56/1/364 P.29/40/1/360 P.4 C.2)

   (07-Purdue 51-C. MICH. 48...P.28-22 C.44/143 P.27/41 P.35/54/2/546 C.17/35/0/292 P.1 C.0)

   (07-PURDUE -21' 45-22, Purdue -8 51-48 (Motor City Bowl)...SR: EVEN 2-2)

   Akron 30 - ARMY 16—Although Akron is just 3-7 last 10 as a favorite, and

   Army is coming off a bye week after losing to New Hampshire, favor Zips against

   undermanned host. Stan Brock’s Cadets have again been plagued by turnovers

   (minus-32 margin in last 24 games on the line). After facing Wisconsin and Ball

   State attacks, Army’s pedestrian offense could seem like a scrimmage vs. the

   “twos” for Zip defense.

   (07-AKRON 22-Army 14...Ak.18-17 Ak.35/133 Ar.29/58 Ar.23/44/2/184 Ak.17/29/0/154 Ak.0 Ar.0)

   (07-AKRON -5' 22-14 at Browns Stadium 05-Army +8' 20-0...SR: Army 3-1)

   MARYLAND 30 - Eastern Michigan 13—Last week’s wire-to-wire home

   victory over Cal a soothing salve for Maryland’s wounded psyche following

   mortifying loss at Sun Belt rep Middle Tennessee. Terps (just 1-8 last 9 laying

   points!) do tend to play down to level of competition, however.

   (DNP...SR: Maryland 3-0)

   *TEXAS A&M 23 - Miami-Florida 21—Miami’s defensive speed should

   allow Hurricanes to keep things tight in battle of two teams adjusting to new

   offensive schemes—A&M to Mike Sherman’s version of the West Coast, and

   Miami incorporating spread-option plays for mobile RS frosh QB Robert Marve.

   Will it be sr. Stephen McGee (mild shoulder separation at New Mexico) or

   promising 6-5 soph Jerrod Johnson (3 TDP vs. Lobos) at QB for Aggies? TV-ABC

   (07-MIAMI 34-Tex. A&M 17...M.18-12 M.40/127 T.33/98 M.21/26/0/275 T.12/22/1/142 M.3 T.2)

   (07-MIAMI-FLORIDA -2' 34-17...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   East Carolina 24 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 10—No surprise that ECU

   was a little flat at Tulane last week after earning Top-20 ranking with wins over

   Va. Tech & West Virginia. Pirates will have no problem getting fired up for this

   in-state trip to Raleigh, however. Speedy Wolfpack stop unit capable of holding

   up its end, but punchless State offense has produced just 3 points in last 13 Qs

   vs. TGS-rated foes. TV-ESPN

   (07-N. Car. St. 34-E. CAR. 20...21-21 E.34/72 N.28/49 N.29/44/1/335 E.28/53/1/254 N.1 E.1)

   (07-Ncs +5' 34-20 06-Ecu +3 21-16...SR: North Carolina State 15-10)

   MISSOURI 54 - Buffalo 13—It’s hard to pick against sizzling Mizzou, which

   scored on its first 10 possessions last week against Nevada and has scored in

   64 of 68 Qs over the last two seasons! Chase Daniel (72% with 10 TDs and only

   1 int.) has been nearly perfect, and Jeremy Maclin (3 TDC in first 33 mins. vs.

   Nevada last week) back at full speed after early-season injury. Improving Bulls

   7-4 last 11 as a DD road dog, but Tigers on 14-3 spread roll. (FIRST MEETING)

   *Fresno State 30 - TOLEDO 27—We doubt that pugnacious Pat Hill will

   allow his Fresno troops to wallow in “what ifs” after longshot BCS dreams were

   likely scuttled by Wisconsin last week. Hey, there’s a lot of football left to be

   played…it’s only mid-September, for gosh sakes! But also not sure we’re

   interested in laying a heavy price at Glass Bowl vs. offensively-competent

   Toledo bunch that can balance things nicely for efficient QB Opelt with blasts

   from RB Collins (7.7 ypc).

   (05-FRESNO STATE -12' 44-14...SR: Fresno State 1-0)

   *TEXAS 48 - Rice 13—Texas enjoyed unanticipated bye week, with

   Hurricane Ike causing a postponement of its game vs. Arkansas. That extra

   healing and prep time might turn out to be bad news for Rice, which has been

   hammered to the tune of 161-31 the last three years by the bigger Longhorns

   (led 41-7 LY at the H). UT doesn’t run as well TY, but savvy QB Colt McCoy

   showing great rapport with sr. WRs Quan Crosby & Jordan Shipley. Owls

   hurting at LB.

   (07-TEXAS 58-Rice 14...T.25-17 T.40/227 R.30/M11 T.20/31/0/333 R.23/38/2/279 T.1 R.0)

   (07-TEXAS -38' 58-14 06-Texas -32 52-7 05-TEXAS -40' 51-10...SR: Texas 68-21-1)

   UTAH STATE 31 - Idaho 23—It’s difficult to make a case for either of these

   WAC stragglers, but we’ll try. USU stepping w-a-a-a-y-y-y down in class after

   Oregon & Utah, and regional scouts reported signs of life with option elements

   of Aggie “O” before it was stonewalled by Utes. Meanwhile, nothing positive to

   report at Idaho, allowing 61 ppg vs. TGS-rated foes and now 1-10 vs. line last 11

   on board. Vandals plumbing slightly greater depths of ineptitude these days.

   (07-Utah St. 24-IDAHO 19...I.24-15 I.52/237 U.44/154 I.14/27/3/191 U.11/15/0/118 U.1 I.1)

   (07-Usu +2' 24-19 06-Idaho -2' 41-21 05-IDAHO +2 27-13...SR: EVEN 16-16-2)

   *Tcu 38 - SMU 13—Taking points has been profitable in this Dallas-area

   rivalry lately, with SMU covering 4 of last 5 against Fort Worth neighbor TCU.

   Horned Frogs’ IMMENSE defensive edge might hold sway this time around,

   however, as true frosh Mustang QB Bo Levi Mitchell (8 ints. in decisive losses

   to Rice & Texas Tech) so far shooting himself in foot with June Jones’ “Red Gun.”

   (07-TCU 21-Smu 7...S.23-13 S.47/149 T.34/142 S.19/34/1/203 T.11/26/0/108 T.2 S.1)

   (07-TCU -23 21-7 05-SMU +14' 21-10...SR: TCU 41-38-7)

   Florida 24 - TENNESSEE 23—Of course, UF has decided edge at QB with

   Mr. Tebow, but recommend “taking” with fired-up UT squad still fuming from 59-

   20 pasting in The Swamp LY (see Looking for an Angle). Vols effectively moved

   the pocket for QB Crompton in 35-3 romp vs. UAB. And his deep stable of RBs

   & WRs capable of piercing maturing but unfinished Florida defense in 1st road

   test of year. Gator ground game still lacks much pop (only 89 YR vs. Miami-

   Florida), and not so sure Tebow puts up Heisman numbers vs. cohesive,

   tight-covering Vol 2ndary (self-named “Goon Squad”), featuring omnipresent,

   super-soph SS Berry. UT is 4-0 as a home dog since ‘06, while Meyer’s troops

   just 2-9 as visiting chalk since ‘05. TV—CBS

   (07-FLA. 59-Tenn. 20...F.23-14 F.46/255 T.21/37 F.14/19/1/299 T.28/46/2/261 F.0 T.1)

   (07-FLA. -7 59-20 06-Fla. -3' 21-20 05-FLA. -6' 16-7...SR: Tennessee 19-18)

   *Georgia 31 - ARIZONA STATE 20—Even if shocking loss vs. UNLV results

   in a slight pointspread benefit for ASU, not interested in taking bait with Dennis

   Erickson’s troops, who were manhandled by Georgia-like athletes from Southern

   Cal & Texas a year ago. Dawgs have plenty of similar quicks on “D” to pressure

   Sun Devil QB Carpenter and to stick with group of ASU wideouts not to be

   mistaken for Usain Bolt. And after facing a heavy dose of super-quick SEC

   defenses the past year, Knowshon Moreno and friends likely not troubled by Sun

   Devil defenders who couldn’t stop the likes of UNLV’s Omar Clayton (who?) in

   crunch time last week. REGIONAL TV—ABC (FIRST MEETING)

   *UNLV 27 - Iowa State 20—UNLV skill players showing encouraging

   development under HC Sanford, with long-armed 6-3 true frosh WR Phillip

   Payne joining RB Frank “The Tank” Summers (103 YR at Arizona State) and

   veteran wideouts Ryan Wolfe & Casey Flair as support for improving soph QB

   Omar Clayton. ISU was helped by 4 fumble recoveries in scoring 48 points vs.

   Kent State, but was held without a TD last week at Iowa.

   (06-IOWA STATE -14 16-10...SR: Iowa State 4-0)

   *STANFORD 26 - San Jose State 24—Jim Harbaugh might not overlook

   nearby San Jose (which was injury-ravaged when pounded 37-0 by Cardinal in

   ’07) as have some past Stanford mentors. But Bay Area scouts taking note of

   undervalued Spartan bunch that’s gained some traction in recent weeks with

   emergence of Cal transfer QB Kyle Reed and availability of mini-RB Yonus

   Davis (143 YR in SDSU romp). Stanford QB Pritchard (just 1 TDP) still blowing

   hot-and-cold.

   (07-STAN. 37-San Jose St. 0...St.26-10 St.48/276 Sj.25/32 St.19/30/1/230 Sj.13/28/1/131 St.0 Sj.0)

   (07-STANFORD -7 37-0 06-SAN JOSE ST. +10 35-34...SR: Stanford 47-14-1)

   *UTEP 26 - New Mexico State 24—In “Battle of I-10” rivalry, would lean to

   NMS team that owns the firepower to trade all the way with UTEP squad just 1-

   8 as chalk since ‘06. Aggies prolific QB Holbrook (434 YP vs. Miners in ‘07) and

   speedy WR C. Williams (9 catches for 221 yds. 2 TDs) licking their chops after

   playing pitch and catch in 29-24 Albuquerque win LY. UTEP’s switch to 3-3-5

   defense not paying dividends so far. Miner losing streak now at eight.

   (07-N. MEX. ST. 29-Utep 24...N.25-13 N.32/113 U.29/79 N.36/48/1/434 U.16/28/1/266 N.1 U.1)

   (07-NMS -5 29-24 06-UTEP -16' 44-38 05-Utep -9' 34-17...SR: UTEP 49-34-2)

   Arizona 24 - UCLA 16—Which of these two is better equipped to get off the

   deck? A measured vote for Arizona, thanks to sr. QB Tuitama and moreestablished

   offensive weaponry that burned a better DeWayne Walker UCLA “D”

   last November. Meanwhile, Rick Neuheisel might have to consult with Dr. Phil

   to soothe battered Bruin psyche after BYU fiasco. Or perhaps find Alan Alda and

   the rest of the old cast from M*A*S*H after mounting injuries continue to deplete

   OL and skill positions.

   (07-ARIZ. 34-Ucla 27...A.21-14 U.41/145 A.34/128 A.21/36/0/341 U.10/28/0/143 A.0 U.0)

   (07-ARIZONA +1 34-27 06-UCLA -12 27-7 05-ARIZONA +9 52-14...SR: UCLA 19-11-2)

   ADDED GAMES

   OHIO STATE 35 - Troy 10—Not more Trojans! Buckeyes saw enough of the

   USC kind in their 35-3 embarrassment in L.A. Now, the question is whether OSU

   mopes about that loss or bounces back with a vengeance vs. athletic, welltraveled

   Troy, which played at Arkansas, Florida & Georgia LY! Trojans got

   “hang in theres” vs. Hogs & Bulldogs, but lost 59-31 in the Swamp. Trojans

   younger in backfield in 2008, but soph QB Jamie Hampton & 5-8 soph RB

   DuJuan Harris helped Troy to 736 yards of offense in last week’s 65-0 rout of

   Alcorn State. (FIRST MEETING)

   *Middle Tennessee St. 24 - ARKANSAS STATE 22— Hard to explain

   MTSU’s curious recent series domination (Blue Raiders have won and covered

   last 5, all by DD margins!). But will stick with trend as long as hot MTSU QB

   Craddock (355 YP at Kentucky) keeps firing away…and as long as Rick

   Stockstill gets Blue Raiders’ chins back up after last-second Hail Mary nearly

   resulted in miracle win at Lexington.

   (07-MTS 24-Ark. St. 7...M.22-8 M.49/205 A.33/22 M.11/24/1/179 A.9/19/3/116 M.0 A.1)

   (07-MTS -2' 24-7 06-Mts -4 38-10 05-MTS -5 45-7...SR: Middle Tennessee State 8-1)

   La.- Monroe 28 - TULANE 26—Trip to mostly-empty Superdome hardly

   intimidating for road-tested ULM, which has traveled to several of college

   football’s most daunting venues over last few seasons. Although C-USA scouts

   raving about Tulane’s stout rush ‘D’ (only 155 yards in first 2 games), cagey sr.

   QB Lancaster capable of leading Warhawks to mild upset.

   (DNP...SR: Tulane 1-0)

   􀂋􀂋􀂋MINNESOTA 38 - Florida Atlantic 19—Minnesota found a

   replacement for injured RB Bennett last week, as frosh Eskridge rambled 114

   yards and 3 TDs against Montana State. FAU was beaten worse than 17-0 score

   last week, as Javon Ringer ran for 282 yards. Gopher QB Weber is 2nd in the Big

   Ten in total offense, and WR Eric Decker leads that league in receiving. HC

   Brewster gets revenge for last year while Gophers surge to 4-0 heading into Big

   Ten play.

   (07-FAU 42-Minn. 39...M.29-24 M.28/135 F.41/117 F.27/44/0/463 M.31/47/4/335 F.0 M.3)

   (07-FLORIDA ATLANTIC +7 42-39 05-MINNESOTA -32 46-7...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   *South Florida 47 - FLORIDA INTL. 10—In its last 9 games vs. non-Sun Belt

   foes, FIU’s offense has mustered only 3 TDs.

   (06-S. FLA. -20 21-20...SR: S. Fla. 1-0)

   *LA.-LAFAYETTE 31 - Kent State 24—With plucky ULL gaining confidence

   following surprisingly competitive 20-17 loss at Illinois, expect well-coached

   Ragin’ Cajuns (under savvy 7th-year HC Bustle) to prevail vs. mistake-prone

   Kent State (10 TOs so far) on extended 0-9 spread run. ULL’s multi-tasking,

   option-running QB Desormeaux (188 YR, 6.3 ypc; 200 YP vs. Illini) & recordbreaking

   RB Fenroy (just became school’s all-time leading rusher) will flummox

   a Flash defense with a mere 17 takeaways in last 16 games.

   (FIRST MEETING)

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 16, 2008 4:07pm
4. Pointwise

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

   MICHIGAN STATE over Notre Dame RATING: 1

   MISSOURI over Buffalo RATING: 1

   EAST CAROLINA over No Caro St RATING: 2

   TENNESSEE over Florida RATING: 3

   TCU over Smu RATING: 4

   SO MISSISSIPPI over Marshall RATING: 4

   FRESNO STATE over Toledo RATING: 5

   BYU over Wyoming RATING: 5

   NFL KEY RELEASES

   SEATTLE over St Louis RATING: 2

   SAN DIEGO over New York Jets RATING: 3

   BUFFALO over Oakland RATING: 4

   NEW YORK GIANTS over Cincinnati RATING: 5

   DENVER over New Orleans RATING: 5

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 16, 2008 4:09pm
5. Winning Points

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   COLLEGE FOOTBALL

   ****BEST BET

   MICHIGAN STATE* over NOTRE DAME by 27

   If there is ever a silver lining to losing a play, it is getting the chance to come right back with the same concept at even better value the following week. That is the case here after our Michigan call near the top of these pages last week died amidst a series of Wolverine turnovers, and not necessarily through anything special that Notre Dame did. Best example? There were three Michigan fumbles that turned directly into Fighting Irish touchdowns, and on none of those plays were the Wolverine players touched by a defender before he lost the ball. It was literally the “Luck O’ the Irish” that afternoon, yet that is not what the perceptions of the public will be, as it never takes much for this particular program to become popular again. So now a team that managed only 14 first downs and 260 yards in that win, getting only 3.3 per rush and completing less than 50 percent of their passes, is put into a short price range against a far superior opponent, and one that has been laying in wait off of a pair of easy home wins (110 runs vs. only 31 passes as Mark Dantonio kept things close to the vest). The Spartans dominated the Irish exactly as the scoreboard showed in a 31-10 rout in South bend last year, leading 354-203 in total offense, and now they bring Javon Ringer and that power ground game against a defense that has not faced those tactics yet. And until we see any indication that the Irish can run the ball, Jimmy Clausen is a sitting duck on the road vs. this class of pass rush. MICHIGAN STATE 37-10.

   ***BEST BET

   RUTGERS over NAVY* by 21

   With three straight wins and covers in this series, Greg Schiano and his coaching staff have shown that they have a solid knowledge of how to defend the Navy option schemes. Yet those games did not carry nearly the meaning of this one, with the Scarlet Knights having to deal with the embarrassment of being blown out twice on national television on their own field already, and as a consequence having their backs firmly up against the wall of the 2008 season. But while the public may lose favor with them because of those highly-visible failures, there are plenty of targets ahead for Schiano, particularly with conference play yet to begin. So with extra time to tactically prepare, and with a home game vs. Morgan State next week providing no look-ahead at all, this is an ideal situation for the Scarlet Knights to start all over again. The defensive tactics should once again be sound, and note that in each of the last two meetings they held the Midshipmen to their season lows of rushing yardage and total offense. But that is only the beginning of the Navy problems this time. Now a slow secondary that has already allowed 973 passing yards has to take on that explosive tandem of Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood. Those two caught nine passes for 203 yards vs. this defense last year, when Mike Teel averaged 14 yards per pass attempt, and they bring the talent and the savvy to run free throughout in this one. And with Navy also lacking a pass rush to get to Teel, there is ample time for those deep routes to develop. RUTGERS 41-20.

   **PREFERRED

   Boston College* over Central Florida by 21

   With a young corps of skill people, and a not very talented one at that, we could call this the Blanche DuBois season for George O’Leary, who needs to “depend on the kindness of strangers”. But he is not going to get any of that here. With two weeks to steam off of their sloppy loss to Georgia Tech we can expect the Eagles to bring a special fire to this one, and there is absolutely no letting up either, with only a home game vs. Rhode Island on deck. So what does that leave the Knights with? A tough road matchup vs. a physical defense that will control the line of scrimmage, and force their skill people to make plays. That is their worst nightmare. Although they did get to overtime vs. South Florida, the offense could not score a touchdown for the first 57 minutes of play, and even with the O.T. period they netted just 12 first downs and 226 yards. And that was at home. Now over-matched QB Michael Grecco is going to have to play from behind in a hostile environment, and it will get ugly. BOSTON COLLEGE 28-7.

   North Carolina* over Virginia Tech by 12

   That dominating win at Rutgers with the pressure of the national cameras will have done wonders for the North Carolina confidence, and that is going to make a big difference when it comes to “closing the deal” this season. For what may have been lost in their 4-8 of 2007 was just how many strikes they made in the first campaign under Butch Davis. Playing better football is one thing, but actually learning to win is another, and a program that had not had a winning season since 2001 found itself with a roster filled with players that lacked confidence. They went 1-4 in outcomes decided by four points or less, and in many of those games they were actually the better team. Now it is a different season, and good talent and coaching can now equate good results. Getting revenge for that 17-10 loss at Blacksburg is the next step and note that the Carolina talent was already better that day, leading 18-11 in first downs and by 65 yards of total offense. Now they are the ones creating matchup problems. NORTH CAROLINA 25-13.

   Utah over Air Force* by 14

   By opening 3-0, including covers in both games that were on the board, it is easy for Air Force to continue to earn respect in the Troy Calhoun era. But this line tells us that the cart is ahead of the horse in terms of the 2008 realities. Without Shaun Carney and Chad Hall they have some big shoes to fill, and each of those last two wins may not mean as much as they will get credit for. They were only tied 3-3 in the third quarter at Wyoming, before a +4 advantage in turnovers helped to finally break that one open, and the wind and the rain gave their ground game major advantages against Houston’s passing attack on Saturday. But now they are going up against an opponent that is primed for revenge after LY’s 20-12 home loss, and one that is rock-solid up front against the run. It means that the Falcons are going to have to be successful passing to survive this week, and in getting those last two wins they were an awful 3-11 through the air, for just 15 yards. That is not going to cut it this week. UTAH 27-13.

   Georgia over Arizona State* by 17

   Getting behind the S.E.C. in major inter-conference showdowns has been a money-maker, and we believe that there is another prime opportunity this week. Even with last Saturday’s loss (we had U.N.L.V. near the top of this page, but never expected the outright win), Arizona State brings enough public sex appeal to keep this line short, but the bottom line is that they are a few years away from being in this class. They werewhipped at the line of scrimmage when Southern Cal came to town last year, managing only 16 rushing yards in a 20-point blowout, and in the 18-point bowl loss to Texas they could only garner 22 overland. Now they once again have to face the kind of physical defensive front they do not see often in Pac 10 play, and we expect to see the Bulldog defense dominating the flow. Meanwhile Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and some talented receivers are accustomed to stepping up against bigger challenges, and will enjoy the breathing room here after being shackled by a tough South Carolina defense. GEORGIA 33-16.

   *CLOSE CALLS

   Kansas State over Louisville* by 1 (Wednesday)

   We are not enamored with the polish of the Wildcats, particularly away from Manhattan. But until we see some kind of positive results from the Big East, all shadings must be against that grouping in competitive non-conference affairs. KANSAS STATE 28-27.

   West Virginia over Colorado* by 9 (Thursday)

   Bill Stewart is making major statements about going back to more basic zone option plays, and that is bad news for a Colorado defense that sees little of those tactics in the Big 12, and will have a difficult time adjusting to the speed of Pat White. WEST VIRGINIA 31-22.

   Connecticut* over Baylor by 15 (Friday)

   Huskies have been pointspread demons of late in Hartford (9-2 ATS in their L11), and as much as we like youn Bear QB Robert Griffin, the savvy to take on this class of defense on the road is still a season away. CONNECTICUT 31-16.

   Penn State* over Temple by 24

   Al Golden’s rebuilding project is making tremendous strides in Philly, but off of back-to-back gut wrenching defeats a young squad can be fragile, especially when having to play from behind against this kind of opponent. We call it a “snap factor”. PENN STATE 37-13.

   Northwestern* over Ohio by 12

   All Boo Jackson did as a replacement for Theo Scott as Ohio QB was throw for 365 yards in that loss to Central Michigan, including TD passes of 77, 45 and 43 yards. That could mean a backdoor cover against a Wildcat defense that opens Big 10 play at Iowa next week. NORTHWESTERN 34-22.

   Cincinnati* over Miami O. by 9

   That 47-10 crunching in Oxford last year was Miami’s worst loss in the “Victory Bell” series since 1940. But with Cincinnati having two weeks to prepare off of that drubbing at Oklahoma, it not only means a comparable focus, but also ample time for Tony Pike to break in to his role as starting QB. CINCINNATI 28-19.

   Mississippi* over Vanderbilt by 6

   The first home SEC game for Houston Nutt means a lot, but while we like the direction that the Rebels are showing, there is still a question of having the kind of depth to cover as chalk in conference play. Commodore secondary gives up few big plays, which will keep them in the hunt in hostile environs. MISSISSIPPI 27-21.

   Georgia Tech* over Mississippi State by 6

   In many ways this can be a carbon copy of the Bulldog loss to Auburn last week. There is enough defense to compete against anyone, but getting any offensive support at all is another matter entirely. GEORGIA TECH 19-13.

   L.S.U. over Auburn* by 3

   Through three games those new Auburn offensive designs do not give any indication that they are ready for this class of challenge yet. But that defense is another matter, and keeps them in this one to the final drive. L.S.U. 16-13.

   Brigham Young* over Wyoming by 27

   Wyoming scored three points in the first half vs. Air Force two weeks ago, and then got shutout in the first 30 minutes by North Dakota State last week. And those games were at home. B.Y.U. 37-10.

   Alabama over Arkansas* by 8

   A case can be made that the Razorbacks got a big break with their trip to Texas being cancelled; not only does it prevent a loss that could shatter their confidence, but it allows a couple of practice week’s to acclimate more to their new playbooks. But nowhere near being ready for this challenge yet. ALABAMA 27-19.

   Southern Miss* over Marshall by 9

   The Thundering Herd are just 3-11 ATS as road underdogs under Mark Snyder so far. We don’t see this talent gap being as wide as the line projects, but until they show some toughness when traveling they remain off of our board. SOUTHERN MISS 30-21.

   Colorado State* over Houston by 1

   The team that has the ball last may win this one. The host Rams can pound away against a rush defense that might be the worst in Division I right now, but their own weaknesses at QB become a huge headache for the tactics and the speed of the Cougar offense. COLORADO STATE 36-35.

   Iowa over Pittsburgh* by 2

   Although the Panthers have two weeks to prepare, and the Hawkeyes are off of that emotional revenge affair vs. Iowa State (including the late safety that ruined our investment on these pages), the bottom line is that if Dave Wannstedt’s team could not rush for only 230 yards vs. those M.A.C. defensive fronts, can they move this calss off of the line of scrimmage? IOWA 19-17.

   Wake Forest over Florida State* by 1

   Demon Deacons have won and covered the last two in this series, rolling the pointspread by 30 points in the process. That tells us much about the current coaching levels of the programs, and we are not sure that beating up on a pair of patsies has the Seminoles prepared for the polished opponent they are up against here. WAKE FOREST 24-23.

   Oregon* over Boise State by 12

   Broncos were able to get a little tactical help here buy facing the spread schemes of Bowling Green last week, but now their X’s have to chase much faster O’s, and away from that blue field. OREGON 35-23.

   Tulsa* over New Mexico by 10

   Lobos have faced a much more difficult schedule do far, but the complex schemes of the Golden Hurricanes are going to be a handful to defend on this field, especially with the offense showing a nice precision with David Johnson a the helm (no turnovers in 133 snaps so far). TULSA 34-24.

   Indiana* over Ball State by 6

   These two combined for 699 passing yards in a 38-20 Hoosier win on this field last year, when an interception return for a TD helped to build a bigger margin on the scoreboard than the physical play on the field called for. But after coasting twice the host has had two weeks to prepare, which does help the defensive playbook. INDIANA 30-24.

   Purdue* over Central Michigan by 13

   Chippewas have allowed 54.8 points per game in going 0-5 against teams from BCS conferences the last two seasons, including 45 points and 583 yards in what was a misleading loss to these Boilermakers last year – they coasted home 45-22 after leading 31-0 at halftime and seemingly getting bored. PURDUE 40-27.

   Akron over Army* by 3

   We will be watching closely to see how the Black Knights respond here after some most critical comments about their heart and desire from Stan Brock leading into their bye week. It could mean a special effort here, but alas it will take more than effort because the talent is so minimal. AKRON 23-20.

   Maryland* over Eastern Michigan by 16

   An absolutely classic flat spot for the Terrapins here, off of that explosive win over California, and with the conference opener at Clemson on deck. But the oddsmakers will have to be extremely generous before we dare trust the punchless Eagles. MARYLAND 33-17.

   Miami F. over Texas A&M* by 1

   Two weeks should be enough for Aggie QB Stephen McGee’s shoulder to heal, but the big weakness Mike Sherman sees right now is team speed, and that was a big factor at Miami LY, when the Hurricanes rolled to a 24-0 halftime lead in an eventual 34-17 win. MIAMI F. 20-19.

   East Carolina over N. C. State* by 10

   A significant regional revenge motive for the Pirates, who were upended 34-20 on their own field last year despite a +58 in total offense, makes this more than just another non-conference affair. And the Wolfpack offense has not scored a touchdown in its last 13 quarters vs. lined opponents. Should be plenty of seats in Raleigh available for Pirate fans. EAST CAROLINA 26-16.

   Missouri* over Buffalo by 31

   With a bye week on deck, and with Chase Daniel a very serious Heisman candidate, the Tigers are allowed to attack much longer than the Bulls can cope with. And with a big M.A.C. showdown at Central Michigan next, they might even be inclined to back off themselves and save some energy. MISSOURI 52-21.

   Fresno State over Toledo* by 4

   From everything that we read leading up to last week’s game vs. Wisconsin, the Bulldogs were almost making that one too important in the grand scheme. And when a team loses a home game that they were aiming for with both barrels, it can often mean a tough time finding energy on the road. FRESNO STATE 28-24.

   Texas* over Rice by 32

   Rice did not get any favors from Hurricane Ike, which postponed the Texas/Arkansas game early enough in the week for the Longhorns to already begin prepping for this one. It was 58-14 last year, when they lacked any special focus. TEXAS 52-20.

   Utah State* over Idaho by 3

   Somebody has to win, don’t they? Actually in this kind of matchup, we usually find it being more lost by mistakes than won by someone taking charge. Which is why we are rarely involved. UTAH STATE 24-21.

   T.C.U. over S.M.U.* by 24

   Gary Patterson will surely want to show June Jones who is boss of the Metro area. But with a bigger challenge at Oklahoma coming up, once he has enough margin for ego purposes, the game grinds to a halt. T.C.U. 38-14.

   Florida over Tennessee* by 7

   Rarely has a Phil Fulmer team ever been as out-classed as his Vols were in that 59-20 blowout in The Swamp last year, when Florida commanded a 2-1 edge in total offense. The blaring of Rocky Top changes some of that, but has the talent gap simply grown that wide? FLORIDA 27-20.

   U.N.L.V.* over Iowa State by 2

   Road trips to Utah and Arizona State may have saddled the Rebels with a couple of defeats, but it also means that they are stepping way down in class here, and the door is open for a badly needed win against an unimposing Cyclone defensive front (which was statistically aided by the wind and rain last week). U.N.L.V. 24-22.

   Stanford* over San Jose State by 6

   The talent gap between these programs is nowhere near what the scoreboard (37-0) and the box score (506-163 in total offense) showed for the Cardinal last year. And the kind of confidence the Spartans picked up in that rout of San Diego State makes a big difference in terms of believing that they can get this done. STANFORD 27-21.

   U.T.E.P.* over New Mexico State by 6

   Aggies showed the rust at Nebraska that could be expected in their first outing of the season. Now the Miners have two weeks to prepare in this revenge affair, studying films of how they allowed 434 passing yards in last year’s 29-24 loss. But the X’s are so limited than even the extra prep time can’t help much. U.T.E.P. 41-35.

   Arizona over U.C.L.A.* by 1

   It is serious gut-check time already for the Bruins. It is one thing to struggle on offense with all of those injuries in the skill positions, but how do we adjust for the lack of heart that a usually solid defense showed once things got out of hand in Provo? ARIZONA 24-23.

   Ohio State* over Troy by 18

   Buckeyes bring the natural focus of spitting out the trouncing that they took on the west coast, which served our BEST BET purposes well. But when we look back at what Troy did at Middle Tennessee, and then view subsequent performances by the Blue Raiders, could this underdog be better than what the oddsmakers are calling for? OHIO STATE 34-16.

   Arkansas State* over Middle Tennessee by 10

   We can not see anything in these rosters or coaching staff’s that tell us that the 24-7 home win by Middle Tennessee last yea is the true level of these programs. So does that leave a pendulum that is ready to swing the other way in a correction mode? ARKANSAS STATE 31-21.

   Tulane* over UL-Monroe by 6

   Kudos to the Green Wave for overcoming all of the distractions to play a pair of solid games against bowl-bound teams. So now time to actually break through and win one outright as they step down in class. TULANE 27-21.

   Minnesota* over Florida Atlantic by 7

   We are never supposed to be in a hurry to look to a team like these Gophers when in a chalk role, but note that it took every bit of a +7 turnover advantage for the Owls to escape with that 42-39 home win last year. When that kind of advantage can only lead to that small of a home margin, there is something that we can work with. MINNESOTA 34-27.

   South Florida over Florida Internatio\nal* by 28

   A chance for Jim Leavitt to showcase his program in what is to be a prime recruiting area if he is going to take the Bulls to the next level. SO. FLORIDA 35-7.

   Louisiana* over Kent by 3

   The Cajuns showed some missing toughness in battling back against Illinois, instead of the usual early submission on the road. That could carry a little momentum into their first home game. LOUISIANA 27-24.

   NFL

   ****BEST BET

   New Orleans over *Denver by 14

   An exciting, if not lucky, home victory this past week against San Diego puts undefeated Denver in the limelight. It also makes the Broncos overrated and inflated from a pointspread perspective. Jay Cutler and wide receiver Brandon Marshall are becoming major forces. But New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees already is a force with more weapons at his disposal despite the loss of star wideout Marques Colston. Yes, Cutler can attack a vulnerable Saints secondary. Cutler, though, still is learning. He’s prone to mistakes. His spectacular play so far has hidden a number of Denver deficiencies, including a weak run defense, a secondary that isn’t as good as perceived and a mediocre ground attack that lacks a true featured back. The Saints go three deep at running back with Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Deuce McAllister. Their offensive line protects Brees as well as any quarterback in the league. New Orleans has that balanced offense. Denver does not, relying too much on Cutler. This isn’t going to be overlooked by the Saints’ sharp boss, Sean Payton. The Broncos haven’t been good when cast in the favorite’s role, going 6-15 (28 percent) ATS in their last 21. Denver is off two AFC West matchups and is at another division foe, Kansas City, next week. This is a letdown spot for Denver off its dramatic 39-38 win versus the Chargers when Cutler threw a late touchdown pass followed by a surprising game-winning two-point conversion. That was a draining game, both physically and mentally. The Saints are a much improved club that right now is under the radar screen, especially following last week’s road loss against a rested Redskins squad. Cutler is going to have to carry the Broncos. Weather shouldn’t hinder the warm-weather Saints being so early in the fall. The Saints are the better team and they’re getting points. That says it all. NEW ORLEANS 34-20.

   ***BEST BET

   *Washington over Arizona by 18

   The Cardinals are 2-0 for the first time in 17 years. This is a team that has had the grand total of one winning season during the past 23 years. Anyone firmly sold on them? Some improvement does appear to be there. They’ve won the time of possession battle in both of their games by a combined margin of nearly 18 minutes. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are putting up huge receiving numbers with ancient Kurt Warner slinging to them. But let’s not swallow the Kool-Aid just yet. Keep in mind the teams Arizona has played – San Francisco and Miami. This is clearly a step up for the Cardinals. The Redskins play in the NFC’s toughest division. They are well-coached on defense. Their offense showed signs of picking up new coach Jim Zorn’s intricate West Coast style. Jason Campbell finally had a solid performance. Clinton Portis remains an upper level running back. Wide receiver Santana Moss is back being a game-breaker. The Cardinals are not a good tackling team and they lack Washington’s balance on offense. Edgerrin James is on the downside of his distinguished career being pushed by rookie Tim Hightower. Tight end Leonard Pope still hasn’t become an integral part of Arizona’s passing attack. The Cardinals are really just about Fitzgerald and Boldin. Warner still has a strong arm to get them the ball. However, he’s a statue in the pocket. Pressure Warner and the Cardinals are in trouble, especially when playing on the road with excessive crowd noise. This could be where defensive end Jason Taylor factors in. It’s a tough situational spot for the Cardinals, too. They are traveling across three time zones. Making it worse for them is this is an early start time. It’s the first time this season the Cardinals have to leave the West Coast. The Cardinals haven’t traveled well lately, failing to cover in four of their last six road contests. WASHINGTON 31-13.

   **PREFERRED

   *Buffalo over Oakland by 18

   We had Buffalo as preferred winner last week when the Bills were underdogs to Jacksonville. We’re coming back on Buffalo this week as a favorite. Normally we’d prefer the Bills in their accustomed ‘dog role. But this is a horrendous spot for Oakland and the Bills are playing well. Buffalo is off to its best start in five years, having posted victories against playoff teams Seattle and Jacksonville. The Bills’ offense is coming together. The return of star offensive left tackle Jason Peters is a big key. So is the growing confidence of second-year quarterback Trent Edwards. The Bills are once again outstanding on special teams. Their defense is healthy and more physical that last year. The Raiders have yet to establish any threat of a passing game with JaMarcus Russell under center. There are real character concerns in Oakland. Lane Kiffin is in a race with St. Louis’ Scott Linehan to see who is the first head coach fired. The Raiders are on an off-surface here, being a grass team. They may not have running back Justin Fargas (check status) and are off back-to-back division games. It’s also a very difficult travel spot for the Raiders, going from the West Coast to the East Coast while drawing an unfavorable early start time. BUFFALO 28-10.

   Carolina over *Minnesota by 6

   These are two tough physical, grind-it-out clubs. Both are strong defensively and on special teams. The Vikings are home on carpet and already in must-win mode. Yet our strong preference is Carolina. The Panthers hold key edges at quarterback, coaching and at the flanks with star wide receiver Steve Smith now back after serving a two-game suspension. Minnesota is a disappointed club having lost opening week to Green Bay and then blowing a 15-0 lead at home last Sunday to Indianapolis. Tarvaris Jackson has yet to show he has the passing skills to be a successful NFL starting quarterback. The Vikings are Adrian Peterson and that’s it. The Panthers defense is rejuvenated. They’ll key on Peterson. No coach is better at covering the spread as an underdog than the Panthers’ John Fox at 31-15-1 (67 percent). Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme has proven his right elbow is back to where it was pre-reconstructive surgery. He was able to engineer enough points to beat two good defenses, San Diego and Chicago, despite not having Smith. Now he finally has him. The Panthers are 23-5-1 (82 percent) ATS when getting points with Delhomme taking snaps. Carolina went 3-0 SU and ATS playing in domes last year. CAROLINA 16-10.

   *CLOSE CALLS

   *Atlanta over Kansas City by 1

   Getting out of Kansas City could be the best thing for the Chiefs. Herm Edwards is one step ahead of the posse. The Chiefs have lost 11 games in a row. Already they have tried three quarterbacks. Their offense is slow and can’t make plays. Michael Turner could have a big game running against Kansas City. Turner better come up big, because the Falcons are a one-dimensional running team with rookie Matt Ryan at quarterback. The Chiefs are terrible, but they often catch inflated points on the road. That’s a factor why they have covered seven of their past nine away contests. ATLANTA 17-16.

   *Tennessee over Houston by 2

   Believing the Texans were markedly improved, we made the Texans one of our four best bets during opening week against Pittsburgh. Wrong. Houston may indeed be improved, but until it proves it can perform well on the road and effectively run the ball, the Texans won’t have our endorsement. The Texans come into this matchup rested, though, having not played last week because of hurricane-related damage to their stadium. Kerry Collins gives the Titans more of a downfield threat than injured Vince Young, but we’re hesitant to lay too many points with such a historically turnover-prone quarterback. TENNESSEE 26-24.

   *New York Giants over Cincinnati by 9

   Maybe the Giants are this good. But are the Bengals really this bad, scoring one touchdown in two games. Carson Palmer has thrown 52 times and has 233 yards to show for it with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Cincinnati is five-for-26 on third-down conversions. The Bengals weren’t sharp in preseason. It’s carried into the season. The Giants have a bye next week, while the Bengals host division foe Cleveland. However, the Bengals have to be focused looking at 0-3 with a defeat. Their defense isn’t as bad as some may think. Palmer and his starting wide receivers are too good to stay in this slump. NY GIANTS 26-17.

   *New England over Miami by 9

   The record-setting scoring Patriots of 2007 are dead. It is slugfest time now for New England minus Tom Brady. Bill Belichick is 6-13 SU when Brady hasn’t started for him. If the Dolphins can finally get their ground game untracked they could keep it close with heady Chad Pennington at quarterback compared to Matt Cassel, making his second start since high school. The Patriots have won 21 straight regular-season games. Miami, by contrast, has lost 20 of its past 21 games. The Dolphins have failed to cover in 16 of their last 19 division contests. But no longer can the Patriots get away with taking any opponent lightly. NEW ENGLAND 23-14.

   *Chicago over Tampa Bay by 7

   Matt Forte just could be the real deal. No, he’s not a franchise back. But he’s solid and that’s all the Bears need playing at home for the first time with their defense back in tip top shape. Chicago quietly has covered its past five games. The Bears welcome an old friend back, Brian Griese. Apparently Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden prefers Griese instead of gutsy but over-the-hill Jeff Garcia. Griese still is rounding into shape from last year’s knee injury and getting in sync with his receivers. The Bears may be without kick return star Devin Hester (ribs), while the Buccaneers may be missing their best wideout, Joey Galloway (check status). CHICAGO 16-9.

   *Seattle over St. Louis by 7

   Scott Linehan is dead man walking. His Rams have surrendered 963 yards and 79 points in two games, while managing just one touchdown despite having Steven Jackson and Torry Holt. St. Louis hasn’t won at Qwest Field since 2004. Seattle is in need of a win, too, having been drilled at Buffalo and upset at home by San Francisco. But as bad as St. Louis is, the Seahawks are just too banged-up on offense for a ringing recommendation. Seattle is down its three best wideouts, forced to start street free agents, Logan Payne and Courtney Taylor, versus San Francisco. There are running back and offensive line injuries, also. Seattle is 0-7 ATS in its past seven at Qwest. SEATTLE 24-17.

   *San Francisco over Detroit by 1

   Detroit’s fragile chemistry could boil over having lost its first two games, while surrendering 82 points and 921 yards in losses to Atlanta and Green Bay at home. The Lions have lost 49 of their last 57 road matchups. Mike Martz’s 49ers’ offense started to come around last week in an upset overtime victory against Seattle. The Lions have no lost love for their former offensive coordinator. The 49ers may be drained following their big win versus the Seahawks. Their best defensive player, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, suffered a leg injury. His status needs to be monitored. SAN FRANCISCO 24-23.

   *Philadelphia over Pittsburgh by 1

   This isn’t the great spot for either club. This is Philadelphia’s only non-conference game during the first 10 weeks. The Eagles also are off a Monday night game versus division rival Dallas. Donovan McNabb masks the Eagles’ mediocre group of wide receivers. Pittsburgh is in a division sandwich situation. The Steelers are off a game at Cleveland, the team many expected to win the AFC North before the season, and host division foe Baltimore the following week. The Steelers remain tough to run on. The Eagles, though, are strictly a pass-first club. PHILADELPHIA 21-20.

   *Indianapolis over Jacksonville by 2

   After throwing only three interceptions last season, Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard already has been picked off that many times this season. The Jaguars can’t get their ground game going because both of their starting guards have been lost for the season and center Brad Meester isn’t expected to return until at least Game 4 because of a biceps injury. The Colts are 19-3 under Tony Dungy during September. Yet Indy can’t be backed with confidence either because of their offensive line injury list, which includes center Jeff Saturday and left tackle Tony Ugoh. The Colts also may be without star safety Bob Sanders (ankle). INDIANAPOLIS 21-19.

   *Baltimore over Cleveland by 4

   The Browns go on the road for the first time facing a Ravens squad they have lost four of the past five times to in Baltimore. The Ravens could get back their top run-stuffer tackle Kelly Gregg (check status). The Ravens are trying to get by on a fierce defense and good special teams with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco just trying to stay out of trouble. He succeeded opening week against the Bengals throwing no interceptions and not getting sacked. The Ravens may open their offense up more knowing the Browns are slow on defense and thin in the secondary with safety Sean Jones out with a knee injury. CLEVELAND 24-20.

   *Green Bay over Dallas by 3

   The Packers draw the Cowboys at an opportune time. Dallas is traveling on a short week following its Monday night matchup versus the Eagles and will be on grass, an off-surface for the Cowboys. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers played well against the Cowboys last year when he was called on to replace Brett Favre. He has looked sharp through two games this season going 42-for-60 for 506 yards, while accounting for five touchdowns with no interceptions. The last time the Cowboys visited Lambeau Field, back in 2004 under Bill Parcells, the Packers buried them, 41-20. GREEN BAY 27-24.

   *San Diego over New York Jets by 6 (Monday)

   This should be a good barometer just how much the Jets have improved with their new free agents and Brett Favre. New York’s run defense looks much improved so far. The Chargers are sure to be in a bad mood after losing a controversial game last week to the Broncos. San Diego has won and covered seven of its last eight home games. The Chargers probably aren’t going to reach the 42 sacks they got last year with star pass rusher Shawne Merriman out. Obviously a lot depends on the physical condition of LaDainian Tomlinson, who has yet to dominate like he has in the past. SAN DIEGO 26-20.

   OVER/UNDER

   ** OVER: Houston at Tennessee – Tennessee rookie running back Chris Johnson is looking good and the Titans can attack Houston’s weak secondary better with Kerry Collins.

   UNDER: Tampa Bay at Chicago – Game-managers instead of downfield passers at quarterback and two stingy defenses spell under.

   UNDER: Carolina at Minnesota – Two conservative offenses going against tough defenses.

   HISTORICAL TRENDS

   Kansas City at Atlanta – The Chiefs smashed the Falcons, 56-10, at home in 2006.

   Oakland at Buffalo – The Raiders defeated the Bills, 38-17, at home in ‘05.

   Houston at Tennessee – Tennessee swept Houston last season, winning 38-36 on the road and 28-20 at home.

   Cincinnati at New York Giants – The Bengals nipped the Giants, 23-22, at home in 2004.

   Arizona at Washington – The Redskins edged the Cardinals, 21-19, at home last year.

   Miami at New England – New England swept Miami last year, winning 49-28 on the road and 28-7 at home.

   Tampa Bay at Chicago – Chicago beat Tampa Bay, 34-31, at home in 2006.

   Carolina at Minnesota – The Vikings trimmed the Panthers, 16-13, at home in 2006.

   St. Louis at Seattle – Seattle beat St. Louis 33-6 at home and 24-19 on the road last season. The Seahawks are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS versus the Rams.

   Detroit at San Francisco – The 49ers defeated the Lions, 19-13, on the road in 2006.

   New Orleans at Denver – Denver defeated New Orleans, 34-13, on the road in 2004.

   Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – The Steelers buried the Eagles, 27-3, at home in 2004.

   Jacksonville at Indianapolis – The Colts knocked off the Jaguars 29-7 on the road and 28-25 at home last season.

   Cleveland at Baltimore – The Browns swept the Ravens last season, winning 27-13 at home and 33-30 at Baltimore. The Ravens are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS hosting Cleveland.

   Dallas at Green Bay – The Cowboys shaded the Packers, 37-27, at home last season.

   New York Jets at San Diego – The Chargers defeated the Jets, 31-26, on the road in 2005.

   .

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 17, 2008 3:19pm
6. Sports Network

   Kansas State (2-0) at Louisville (1-1)

   The Sports Network

   DATE & TIME: Wednesday, September 17th, 8:00 p.m. (et)

   FACTS & STATS: Site: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium (42,000) -- Louisville, Kentucky. Television:ESPN2. Home Record: KSU 2-0, Louisville 1-1. Away Record: KSU 0-0, Louisville 0-0. Neutral Record: KSU 0-0, Louisville 0-0. Conference Record: KSU 0-0, Louisville 0-0. Series Record: Louisville leads, 1-0.

   GAME NOTES: The Louisville Cardinals continue their season-opening four-game homestand this Wednesday, as they entertain the Kansas State Wildcats in a non-league affair at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium. The Cardinals have the luxury of playing four straight and six of their first seven games at home, although their 2008 campaign didn't get off on the right foot. In their opener on August 31st, Louisville was handled by visiting Kentucky 27-2 in a battle for the Governor's Cup. The Cardinals though, were able to rebound from that loss, as they easily defeated Football Championship Subdivision member Tennessee Tech, 51-10, on September 6th. The 51 points marked the third highest total in the Steve Kragthorpe era and was obviously a big improvement from the performance in the opener. As for KSU, it kicked off the season with a pair of home games, winning them by a combined score of 114-16. After opening the season with a 45-6 triumph of North Texas, the Wildcats trounced FCS opponent Montana State, 69-10, on September 6th. The 69 points were the most scored in a game by KSU since it pounded Ball State 76-0 in 2000. The Wildcats and Cardinals have met just one time previously on the gridiron, with Louisville capturing a 23-6 victory in Manhattan in 2006.

   The Wildcats have had their way on the offensive side of the ball thus far, amassing over 160 rushing and 300 passing yards in each of their first two games. Quarterback Josh Freeman is off to a great start and he has already totaled nine touchdowns, including four rushing. In the team's last game, Freeman completed 16-of-21 tosses for 288 yards and a pair of scores, in addition to rushing for 35 yards and two more touchdowns in a romp of Montana State. Brandon Banks was his main target, as he pulled down six passes for 95 yards and a score. It was another solid effort by Banks, who had three catches for 88 yards and a two scores in the opener versus North Texas. The ground attack hasn't produced a 100-yard rusher in either game, but the team has still been successful running the ball, averaging 4.3 yards per carry thus far.

   The defense for KSU has also been impressive early on, limiting North Texas to just 205 yards in the opener and Montana State to only 191 yards the following week. After failing to record a turnover in the opener, the Wildcats generated four against Montana State, to go along with a pair of blocked punts that were returned for touchdowns. Courtney Herndon put forth a tremendous effort in the team's last game, as he blocked a punt, returned a fumble 43 yards for a touchdown and recorded an interception. In the opener, Herndon was also a factor, posting four tackles and one of the squad's two sacks.

   After a dismal opening performance against Kentucky, the Cardinals and their offense stepped up last game, posting 451 total yards in a romp of Tennessee Tech. It was a big turnaround for Louisville, which turned the ball over five times and was limited to a mere 205 total yards by Kentucky. The unit went for 234 yards on the ground in its last game and that was a big improvement from the opener, when Louisville had just 53 rushing yards. In just the second game of his career, tailback Victor Anderson went over the century mark with 114 yards and a score on 12 carries. It was a much better effort from Anderson, who was limited to just 31 yards on 12 carries in the team's opener. Hunter Cantwell, making his second career start as well, was much more effective, throwing for 203 yards and a pair of scores on 15-of-23 tosses. Hunter appeared much more nervous in the opener, when he passed for just 152 yard and three interceptions. After leading the team with nine catches for 77 yards in the opener, Doug Beaumont once again paced the Cardinals with five receptions for 83 yards versus Tennessee Tech.

   Through the first two games, Louisville's defense has been rather sound and has allowed just two touchdowns to opposing offenses. The defense has surrendered a combined 386 yards of total offense through two games and it has held both opponents under 75 yards rushing. Last game, the Cardinals held Tennessee Tech to only 176 total yards, while forcing four turnovers. Two of those miscues resulted in touchdowns on fumble returns. Woodny Turenne led the defense with five stops in the squad's last outing.

   KSU has been clicking on all cylinders early on, but this will be a big road test for it. Still, the Wildcats have appeared explosive on both sides of the ball and with Freeman running the show under center, they should emerge victorious in this one. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Kansas State 31, Louisville 17

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 17, 2008 3:32pm
7. September 15, 2008

   Week 3 trends

   By Jimmy Sirody

   Don Best Handicapper

   See Jimmy's Picks

   The San Diego Chargers (0-2 SU&ATS) were a trendy pick to unseat the New England Patriots in the AFC this season, but two straight late game lightning bolts have the Chargers sitting at 0-2 heading into Monday's home battle with the New York Jets (1-1 SU&ATS).

   San Diego has started the season with back-to-back losses nine times since the schedule expanded to 16 games in 1978 and they have reached the playoffs just once under that big burden.

   The Jets come to town after splitting their first two games against division foes. They haven't fared well outside the AFC-East when playing on the road, losing 14 of 17 SU (5-12 against the spread). New York has also floundered at a 15-23-2 clip as underdogs, though the Jets have 'covered' nine of 11 as Monday night road short-enders.

   The Chargers have cashed 13 of their last 18 as home favorites in September and they are 12-4-2 ATS off a SU loss. San Diego is 8-2 ATS versus a non-division foe when under the Monday night lights.

   Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 3 NFL menu appear below.

   CHIEFS (0-2, 1-1) at FALCONS (1-1 SU&ATS)

   Kansas City has lost 15 of 20 versus NFC teams (5-14-1 ATS). The Chiefs have cashed 18 of 26 after losing by 14 points or more and 13 of 15 during the third week of the season. Atlanta is 13-23-1 ATS as a non-division home favorite. The SU winner is 13-1 ATS when Kansas City squares off against an NFC-South foe. The Falcons have zipped 'over' in 12 of 16 at home after scoring 10 points or less. The Chiefs have been on the high side at a 9-4-1 clip versus NFC opponents and they have topped the 'total' in 26 of 40 off a division loss. Atlanta has ducked 'under' in 18 of 26 as favorites versus AFC clubs.

   RAIDERS (1-1 SU&ATS) at BILLS (2-0 SU&ATS)

   Buffalo looks to open the season with three straight wins for the first time in more than a decade.. The Bills are 23-12 ATS at home off a SU and ATS win. Oakland is 16-26 ATS on the road. The Raiders have eclipsed the 'total' at a 12-4-1 rate after winning SU as dogs and Buffalo has followed suit in 21 of 32 under the same scenario. However, Oakland has slipped below the number in 17 of 21 on the road when facing teams with a winning record.

   TEXANS (0-1 SU&ATS) at TITANS (2-0 SU&ATS)

   Tennessee has come up short in 13 of its last 19 as division home favorites and the Titans have dropped 28 of 40 ATS at LP Field when laying between 3 ½ and 10 points. Tennessee is 2-6 ATS at home after winning by 14 or more as well. Houston has failed in six of its last seven ATS on the division road. The SU winner is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 series showdowns. Eight of the past 10 tussles have been on the high side. The Texans have blown 'over' in seven straight avenging a road loss and in 10 of 12 against division foes.

   BENGALS (0-2 SU&ATS) at GIANTS (2-0 SU&ATS)

   Cincinnati is 19-10-1 ATS on the highway. But the Bengals have failed in 11 of their last 16 on the road ATS after losing by 14 points or more. The New York Giants are 15-7-1 after scoring 30 points or more. The defending champs have flown 'over' in 16 of 24 as non-conference favorites while dipping 'under' in six of seven as double-digit chalk. Cincinnati has been on the low side in 17 of 21 as road dogs of seven points or more.

   CARDS (2-0 SU&ATS) at SKINS (1-1 SU&ATS)

   Washington is a dismal 5-14-3 as home favorites in September and the Skins have failed to cash at a 2-10-2 clip in their first role as chalk. In addition, they are 3-14 ATS after a SU dog win and 8-16-1 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back home games. Arizona is 9-21 ATS on the road outside its division. The underdog has cashed in 15 of the past 22 series encounters. The Cards have been on the high side at a 22-7-1 rate on the road against a non-division opponent.

   DOLPHINS (1-1 SU&ATS) at PATRIOTS (2-0 SU&ATS)

   Miami is 15-8-1 as road dogs of seven points or more, but just 3-12-1 as division road pups. New England has cashed in six of the past eight series shootouts. The Patriots are 23-10-2 ATS at home after a SU and ATS win and 22-10-1 ATS as division favorites. The defending AFC champs are 21-9-1 ATS after allowing 10 points or less.

   BUCS (1-1 SU&ATS) at BEARS (1-1, 1-0-1)

   Tampa Bay has been a bust on the road versus non-division rivals, dropping 20 of 23 spread decisions. The Bucs are also just 5-12 ATS after allowing 10 points or less. Chicago is 6-14 as home favorites the first four weeks of the season but 18-9 as non-division home choices. Tampa Bay has snuggled 'under' in 17 of 23 after a double-digit win and in 36 of 53 after allowing 10 points or less. The Bucs have been on the low side in 13 of 17 as dogs of three points or less as well.

   PANTHERS (2-0, 1-0-1) at VIKINGS (0-2 SU&ATS)

   Carolina has cashed at a 14-6-1 pace as September dogs and at a 21-13-2 clip as non-division short-enders. The Panthers have 'covered' at a 22-12-1 rate on the road when facing teams with a losing record. Minnesota has snuck 'under' at a 6-18-1 rate as home favorites of 3 ½-points or less.

   RAMS (0-2 SU&ATS at SEAHAWKS (0-2 SU&ATS)

   The dog has cashed in this NFC-West rivalry six of 10 times. Seattle is 18-8 as home favorites, but only 6-17-1 as division home favorites. St. Louis is 10-23 ATS off a SU and ATS loss and the Rams have failed to 'cover' 17 of 26 on the road versus a division foe. St. Louis has zipped 'over' in 24 of 36 as away dogs of seven points or more. However, the Rams have knuckled 'under' in eight of their last nine in September.

   LIONS (0-2 SU&ATS) at 49ERS (1-1 SU&ATS)

   Detroit has stumbled in 11 of its last 13 as road dogs of seven points or less. The Lions have cashed 32 of 48 after losing by 15 points or more. San Francisco was 0-7 ATS at home off a road game last year. The 49ers are 5-11 ATS off a SU dog win and 6-13 ATS at home after allowing 28 points or more. Detroit has taken the high road in 13 of 17 as short-enders on the highway and in 15 of its past 22 off a SU loss. San Francisco has dipped 'under' in 13 of 20 after winning SU as dogs.

   SAINTS (1-1 SU&ATS) at BRONCOS (2-0 SU&ATS)

   Denver is 6-16 ATS after winning SU as dogs and 4-11 ATS at home after a SU&ATS division victory. The Broncos have 'covered' at a 17-8-1 rate after allowing 30 points or more. New Orleans has zipped 'over' in 30 of 46 after losing SU as favorites and topped the number in 20 of 27 on the road versus teams with a winning record.

   STEELERS (2-0, 1-0-1 ATS) at EAGLES (1-0 SU&ATS prior to Monday)

   Pittsburgh is 12-5-1 ATS on the road after playing a game on the road. The Steelers are 27-18-1 ATS after yielding 10 points or less. Philadelphia is 9-19 as non-conference favorites. Pittsburgh has slipped below the 'total' in 19 of 28 games off a SU division road win.

   JAGUARS (0-2 SU&ATS) at COLTS (1-1 SU&ATS)

   Jacksonville has 'covered' at an 8-3-1 pace against Indianapolis. The Jaguars are 11-3-1 as road dogs versus a division foe while the Colts are 13-26-2 as division home chalk. Indianapolis has lost 23 of its last 38 home games in September and the Colts are 11-28 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record. Jacksonville has eclipsed the 'total' in 13 of 18 as single-digit dogs, but dipped 'under' in 11 of 15 as division road pups.

   BROWNS (0-2, 0-1-1) at RAVENS (1-0 SU&ATS)

   The home team has cashed in seven of the past 10 series scrapes. Baltimore is 13-4 as home favorites of three points or less and 11-4 as home chalk during the first four weeks of the season. Cleveland has 'covered' five straight versus the Ravens and the dog is 9-4 in the last 13 encounters. The Browns are 17-9-1 as September dogs, but only 4-11 ATS after allowing 10 points or less. Cleveland has trickled 'under' at a 5-13-1 pace in September and Baltimore has followed suit at a 7-19-3 clip during the first month of the season.

   COWBOYS (1-0 SU&ATS prior to Monday) at PACKERS (2-0 SU&ATS)

   The home team has won and cashed in the past 10 series meetings. Green Bay is 8-3 as home dogs in September and 14-9 ATS off a SU division road win. Dallas is 26-12-1 as road favorites of seven points or less. Ten of the past 11 series skirmishes have topped the 'total.' The Cowboys have been on the high side in 15 of 20 on the road versus a non-division opponent. The Packers have bounced above the number at a 16-6-1 rate after scoring 28 points or more.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 17, 2008 3:43pm
8. 9/17/2008

   DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

   NFL TEASERS AGAIN A BIG STORY

   I keep promising not to devote too much space to this. But, it’s become such a big story in Las Vegas and Reno sportsbooks that I have to keep you posted.

   Sharps betting NFL teasers are making a killing!

   In past years, what’s called “basic strategy” for NFL two-team teasers has been particularly dangerous later in the season once the lines have had time to settle into place. In “basic strategy,” you tease any games that cross both the 3 and the 7 with those six-point moves. It makes sense that moving a line six points is more valuable if the lines are accurate.

   Early season lines can be soft because it’s hard to know for sure where everyone stands because of offseason personnel and coaching changes. The oddsmaker in me spends a lot of time saying “We’ll know more after this week” during September. After awhile, you pretty much know where all the teams stand. Teasers have more intrinsic value after the market knows where the teams stand.

   This year though, the basic strategy has been working out of the gate. Almost every game that could have been used logically in a two-team six-point teaser in Week Two of the regular season got there.

   Here’s a list:

   *Tennessee was at +2.5 or +1.5 at Cincinnati for part of the week. They would be a logical choice to tease up to +7.5 or +8.5. The sharps liked Tennessee to win the game outright…and the line eventually dropped out of the basic strategy window. Tennessee closed a 1-point favorite. They would win the game 24-7.

   *Minnesota was +2 much of the week at home against Indianapolis. This was a very popular teaser choice (moving the Vikings up to +8) because the Colts looked so sluggish the week before vs. Chicago. The Vikings as a team side took in a lot of money too, and the line closed at pick-em. Minnesota blew a 15-0 lead on the way to an 18-15 loss. That was enough to cover teasers though.

   *Washington opened at +2 at home against New Orleans. That line came down fairly soon to pick-em. If you teased the Redskins up to +8 when you could, they covered that easily in a 29-24 victory.

   *New York was an 8.5 point favorite over St. Louis. The Giants were teased down to -2.5 by many people (particularly the square public). That was a laugher when New York won 41-13. You can tell that a lot of teasers are winning to this point! That’s all of the early games on the list. People teasing by starting times had built up a nice bankroll for the late games.

   *Tampa Bay was at -8 or -7.5 early in the week before it was announced that Jeff Garcia would miss the game. People who bet teasers early weren’t bothered too much that it was Brian Griese instead. The game line dropped to -7. Teasers were fine when the Bucs won 24-9

   *Seattle was the only blemish on the day. In the process of dropping from -9 to -7, they sat in the basic strategy window for awhile at 7.5 to 8.5. The Seahawks ended up losing the game outright, which was a saving grace for sportsbooks rooting against teaser action. The public had Seattle in a lot of teasers too. They figured there was no way this team could lose to San Francisco.

   *New England was a popular teaser play when they were getting points from the New York Jets. A lot of late money came in on the Pats, so they were ultimately a 1-point favorite (matching Tennessee/Cincinnati in that regard). The Patriots won 19-10 you’ll recall.

   *Denver was a popular teaser play earlier in the week too. They were getting +1.5 or so at times before eventually getting bet to be a favorite with late money as well. You can tell the sports books got hit hard Sunday. Teasers were winning, and the late money was winning! Denver won outright 39-38. The books were desperately hoping San Diego would hold on to that 38-31 fourth quarter lead.

   Okay, those are the late afternoon games. One teaser nominee didn’t get there. That’s a big deal because all teasers with Seattle lose. But, on a day where so many combinations won, it was small consolation.

   And, it was about to get worse.

   *Pittsburgh was a popular teaser team with the public Sunday night even though they weren’t in the right window for basic strategy. Squares love taking six-point favorites down to pick-em figuring they’ll win the game. I’ll probably write at least two articles later in the season warning you against that. This time it worked. Any teaser with Pittsburgh and anyone but Seattle cashed its ticket.

   *Dallas was a popular teaser team with the public Monday Night even though they weren’t in the right window. Same price range as Pittsburgh. Give the squares a home team that only has to win straight up and they’ll bet it. Any teasers with Dallas and anyone but Seattle also won.

   Magnifying the problem was that “middle” approach I talked about last week. Remember some sharps put Minnesota +8.5 in teasers, but then bought back some of Green Bay at -2 or -1.5 on game do to shoot at that big window that would be a sweep. Green Bay won by 5, and all bets won. It happened again in BOTH the Pittsburgh and Dallas games! Both won by four points. Anyone trying to shoot a middle won everything.

   Thinking like a sharp, and betting like a sharp, means making the most of basic strategy teasers in the NFL. Don’t try them in the colleges. That sport is too erratic, so you’re not getting the same value when you move a game six points. Don’t just bet the teams you like in teasers figuring the extra six points are insurance. It’s not about that. It’s about putting both the 3 and 7 in your favor and letting results take care of themselves. Oddsmakers are onto this, and are trying to figure out a defense. You saw many lines move all the way through the windows this past week to discourage teaser play. The hope from sportsbooks that early season volatility would help them turned out to be wrong this year. Something that usually gets stronger later in the season actually started out strong in 2008. I know all of you have different situations in terms of your access to teasers and the right numbers. Do what you can to put this sharp strategy to work for you as best as possible.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 17, 2008 6:02pm
9. Marc Lawrence Playbook Best Bets

   3*s: C. Michigan, NO Saints, Titans over

   4*s: Georgia, Hou Texans, SF 49ers over

   5*s: BC, Car Panthers, Redskins over

   5_ BEST BET

   Disappointing start for both programs with BC dropping its ACC opener

   to Georgia Tech while UCF fell in overtime to bitter intrastate rival South

   Florida. We’re not at all enamored with OT losers (see last week’s I’M A

   LOSER article for more on this)… especially when the defeated squad

   was outgained by a 504-226 margin! Since each team has had an extra

   week to prepare, they’ll probably spend most of the time trying to revive

   a pair of moribund offenses. A quick check of the ATS archives tells us

   the Eagles are the more likely choice to succeed. Boston College stands

   16-6 with rest when taking on .500 > non-conference foes and Jeff

   Jagodzinski’s bunch has covered 15 of 19 opportunities when winning

   SU as chalk versus .500 > opponents. Central Florida’s George O’Leary

   does not fare well when taking to the highway off a loss, compiling

   a weak 6-16 ATS record (0-4 playing out of conference). THIS JUST IN:

   Game Three Bowlers off a SU favorite loss (like BC) are an outstanding

   16-3-1 ATS versus a foe that was a dog of more than 8 points in its last

   game. With UCF leaving Orlando for the fi rst time this season and Boston

   College facing lowly Rhode Island the following week, we’ll look to fl y

   like an eagle with the more-focused Beantown Boys.

   BOSTON COLLEGE over C Florida by 21

   3_ BEST BET

   We’ll learn a lot about Joe Tiller and his Purdue team here. After

   ripping through Oregon for 300 fi rst quarter yards and a 20-3 lead, the

   Boilermaker offense inexplicably fi red blanks the rest of the way against

   the Ducks – and before you could say ‘Donald’, Oregon had caught up

   and forced overtime, eventually winning 32-26. That devastating loss puts

   the Boilers smack in the middle of our classic ‘Home Favorite Letdown Off

   An Overtime Loss’ scenario (see last week’s I’M A LOSER article). Central

   Michigan may not get much attention but the Chippewas have averaged

   9 wins per season over the last two campaigns and went bowling both

   years. They also owe Purdue for a pair of SU defeats in 2007, a 23-point

   embarrassment on this fi eld in Game Three and a narrow 3-point loss in

   the Motor City Bowl. In a battle of top-notch quarterbacks, we expect

   CMU’s Dan LeFevour to outduel the Boilers’ Curtis Painter and walk way

   with a statement-making win.

   Central Michigan over PURDUE by 1

   4_ BEST BET

   You’ve got to hand it to Mark Richt. Last week’s SEC opener against South

   Carolina looked like an after-hours parking lot brawl outside a redneck

   bar but somehow the Georgia coach guided his Dawgs to a crucial 14-

   7 win over the Gamecocks. Now comes the part of the schedule where

   Richt shines: he’s 32-2 SU versus non-conference foes – 27-0 during the

   regular season – plus he’s 26-4 SU and 19-11 ATS away from Athens. It

   doesn’t also doesn’t hurt that Preseason No. 1 teams are 26-2 SU and 18-9

   ATS in Game Fours. Since Arizona State’s jackrabbit 8-0 SU start last year,

   the Sun Devils have cooled considerably, going just 4-4 SU and 1-6 ATS

   (shocked last week in OT by UNLV, 23-20, as 25-point favorites). We can

   sweeten the deal by telling you home teams off an overtime loss were

   just 24-41-3 ATS entering this season when taking on a foe off a SU win.

   The best of this week’s SMART BOX confi rms our choice – Dawgs rule in

   the desert tonight.

   Georgia over ARIZONA ST by 17

   4_ BEST BET

   Thanks to Ike the Texans will tackle the Titans with the benefi t of an extra

   wink of rest. And if you are winless in the NFL, that’s a nice handicapping

   combination. That’s confi rmed by the fact that teams in this league that

   have yet to win a game are 32-19-1 ATS when taking points with the

   benefi t of an extra week to prepare. More important, Houston needs

   this game like blood given Tennessee’s 2-0 start to the season. Jeff Fisher

   wears a label as a good dog. When laying points against winless teams

   he is just 2-6 ATS in his NFL career, including 1-6 as a single-digit favorite.

   Titans drop to 1-7 ATS as September chalk against avenging division foes

   here today. Texans get back in the mix of things today.

   Houston over TENNESSEE by 7

   3_ BEST BET

   Intent on making more than a point, the man on a mission stamped

   himself with a stirring two-point conversion to steal last week’s game

   away from San Diego. Mike Shanahan’s job this week will be to keep his

   team at the same level they were during the Charger game. That may be

   a problem considering the Broncos are in the middle of a season opening

   division sandwich. To that extent they are 0-8 ATS in this role (division

   games before and after with a non-division game in the middle). They are

   also just 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Saints will

   gladly comply, sporting a 7-0 ATS mark as road dogs of more than 3 points

   off a loss when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS victory. With New

   Orleans boss Sean Payton 6-1 ATS in his NFL career as a dog against .500 or

   better opposition, look for venue to turn into Mile Sigh today.

   New Orleans over DENVER by 7

   5_ BEST BET

   The Vikings were many a ‘Wise Guys’ choice to win the NFC North Division

   while making their way to the playoffs. A strengthened defense with

   a powerful running game made for solid reasoning. Missing from the

   equation, though, is a quarterback. When they go down this week it’s safe

   to say Tarvaris Jackson will be carrying a clipboard sooner than later. The

   Jackson experiment aside, the Panthers have capitalized on the return of

   QB Jake Delhomme, vaulting to a 2-0 start sans the services of his best WR

   Steven Smith. Like the Terminator, Smith’s back this week and these Cats

   are lovin’ it. The most mind-boggling stat of all is at work here as Carolina

   is 20-1 ATS as a non-division road dog against .550 or less opposition

   in their franchise history, including 20 wins in a row! With Game Three

   winless favorites of less than 5 points just 3-19-2 ATS since 1990, you’d be

   wise to join the guys who realize Carolina is a live Road Cat!

   Carolina over MINNESOTA by 10

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 18, 2008 1:53am
10. Sept. 18

    West Virginia at Colorado: The Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever that keeps Colorado coaches and ADs scheduling these type of games dates back to the 1980s under Bill McCartney. Since 2003, CU has played UCLA, Washington State, Florida State, Miami, Arizona State and Georgia in the regular season. Record: 2-7.

    Sept. 20

    Georgia at Arizona State: Not a good matchup if you're an ASU offensive lineman. The Sun Devils allowed the second-most sacks in the country (55) last season. Georgia led the SEC in sacks (42).

    LSU at Auburn: Before we get into the West Division implications, note to Tubs: Make sure you shade a guy over to Demetrius Byrd's side. He was the LSU receiver who caught the winning touchdown pass with one second left last season.

    Florida at Tennessee: Hate Inc. UT lost this game by 39 last season and ended up playing for the SEC title. Think that sat well with Florida?

    Wake at Florida State: Forget the Bowden Bowl, Bobby needs to win the Grobe Grudge. Wake has won the last two in a row for the first time.

    Sept. 27

    John Parker Wilson has yet to beat Georgia while a starter at Alabama.

    Tennessee at Auburn: The Vols are 12-0 after Florida in regular season games last 12 seasons.

    Wisconsin at Michigan: The Rich Rod infiltration of the Big Ten continues. Good-old pro-style vs. new-fangled spread option.

    Virginia Tech at Nebraska: If the Huskers are going to be any good at all, they have to win this game. Virginia Tech's defense will be good enough to hug out its differences with Nebraska quarterback Joe Ganz.

    TCU at Oklahoma: Oklahoma is reportedly concerned about TCU spies after the Sooners lost to the Horned Frogs in 2005. OU assistants are being issued night vision goggles for practice after the sun goes down.

    Fresno State at UCLA: This ends a brutal non-conference schedule for Fresno. If the Bulldogs can get through Rutgers, Wisconsin and Toledo, they could be talking Orange Bowl by this point.

    Alabama at Georgia: If Saban has his way, this game will be played in a cone of silence. No pesky spectators or media to get in the way of his mission. The Dawgs have won three in a row over the Tide, the last in overtime.

    Oct. 4

    Ohio State at Wisconsin: Might be the Big Ten Game of the Year. Of course, it doesn't take much to earn that label. Wisconsin led in the third quarter at Columbus last year before losing by 21.

    Missouri at Nebraska: The last time Missouri won in Lincoln, Central State (Ohio) University's AD played in the game. That would be one Kellen Winslow in 1978.

    Oregon at USC: The Ducks treated USC's Mark Sanchez like beaver road kill on I-5 last season (two interceptions). Oregon's D has gotten ornerier.

    Oct. 9

    Clemson at Wake Forest: Thursday night at Groves Stadium, what could be scarier? No, really. This is a matchup of the ACC's top two quarterbacks.

    Oct. 11

    Tim Tebow accounted for three touchdown's in last season's matchup with LSU.

    LSU at Florida: The Crazy Les legend grew last season in this meeting. LSU went five-for-five on fourth downs. Tim Tebow can't be any greater than he was that night (two touchdowns throwing, one rushing), can he?

    Arizona State at USC: If the Trojans are going to be knocked off their Pac-10 throne, it has to start here. It's been nine years since the Sun Devils won in the Coliseum.

    Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas): As usual, Big 12 South and national championship hopes are at stake. Somehow, the turkey legs and corn dogs taste better for the winners.

    Oct. 18

    Kansas at Oklahoma: Kansas' Todd Reesing likes to run around. Oklahoma DE Auston English likes to chase. Reesing better have help. Oklahoma is 21-0 in Big 12 home games since 2002. Michigan at Penn State: Give Rodriguez Penn State's skill players and Michigan might have a better chance this season. Give Rod JoePa's players and he might have the cops swarming around.

    Ohio State at Michigan State: Mark Dantonio tries to psyche out his former boss (Jim Tressel) by sporting green and white argyle. Will it matter? Ohio State has won the last six in this series.

    Missouri at Texas: This might be all that stands between Missouri and an undefeated season. The Tigers are a better team on paper but this game is in Austin where the Longhorns are 10-0 following the Oklahoma game the past decade. Four of those wins have been against ranked teams.

    Oct. 23

    Auburn at West Virginia: This should be interesting. One of the nation's best spread-option pass schemers (Auburn OC Tony Franklin) vs. one of the nation's best spread-option run schemes.

    Oct. 25

    Alabama at Tennessee: The Tide might have reached their '07 high in last seasons' 24-point victory over UT. John Parker Wilson, time for you to step up again.

    Oct. 26

    Central Florida at Tulsa: 2007's No. 1 offense (nationally) vs. Conference USA's No. 1 defense (projected in 2008). The Golden Hurricane lost twice to the Knights last season, including the Conference USA championship game.

    Georgia at LSU: SEC championship game preview? The teams haven't met since the '05 title game. Pro SCOUT s fight over press box space to watch Matthew Stafford vs. the LSU defense.

    Nov. 1

    Georgia vs. Florida (in Jacksonville, Fla.) Urban Meyer orders the entire population of Gainesville onto the field after the Gators first touchdown.

    Texas at Texas Tech: The over-under is 78. That's the average number of points scored in this game the past five years. All have been won by Texas.

    Nov. 8

    Could this be the final Bowden Bowl?

    Clemson at Florida State: Tommy has won the last four out of five over his dad. Will this be the last meeting?

    Nov. 22

    BYU at Utah: Hopefully, a BCS bowl is at stake. The last time it was, Utah fans broke out one of the best signs of all time during a rout of the Cougars: Where's Your God Now?

    Michigan at Ohio State: Yo, Rich. Big game today. You might have heard about when you came to town.

    Cal Poly at Wisconsin: The San Luis Obispo County fair got in the way of a September meeting so they moved this game to late November. Kidding. Just threw this in to remind you that no one is safe. The I-AA Mustangs won at San Diego State in 2006, averaged a school-record 40 points last season and return 10 starters to a confusing option offense.

    Nov. 28

    West Virginia at Pittsburgh: Devine vs. McCoy. Stewart vs. Wannstedt. White vs. Pittsburgh's defense. West Virginia's psyche vs. itself. Just think if the Mountaineers need this to go to the BCS title game. Again.

    Nov. 29

    Chase Daniel and Mizzou should have a lot riding on the outcome of the Kansas game.

    Missouri vs. Kansas (in Kansas City, Mo.): The winner could be playing at Arrowhead two weeks in a row. Kansas City hosts the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 6. Nothing, though, can top last season's epic. The second-largest crowd in Arrowhead history watched Missouri win 36-28.

    Auburn at Alabama: Tommy Tuberville is running out of hands to show the cameras how many times in a row he has won.

    Dec. 6

    South Florida at West Virginia: Jim Leavitt might -- just might -- admit this is a big game. The South Florida coach fell asleep during Neil Armstrong's walk on the moon. Not much phases him. The winner here should capture the Big East. Two top 10 Mountaineers' teams have played South Florida the past two years. Two top 10 Mountaineers teams have come out losers. The tough Bulls' D has shut down West Virginia's running game.

    USC at UCLA: Rick Neuheisel is Tabasco. This rivalry, lately has been rice cakes. In other words, USC-UCLA needs a little Ricky Tabasco.

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 18, 2008 1:54am
11. Thursday, September 18

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    W VIRGINIA (1 - 1) at COLORADO (2 - 0) - 9/18/2008, 8:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Friday, September 19

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BAYLOR (2 - 1) at CONNECTICUT (3 - 0) - 9/19/2008, 8:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    BAYLOR is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.

    BAYLOR is 26-50 ATS (-29.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

    BAYLOR is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

    CONNECTICUT is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, September 20

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TEMPLE (1 - 2) at PENN ST (3 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    TEMPLE is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in September games since 1992.

    TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    PENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons

    PENN ST is 2-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UCF (1 - 1) at BOSTON COLLEGE (1 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 1:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OHIO U (0 - 3) at NORTHWESTERN (3 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 12:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIAMI OHIO (1 - 2) at CINCINNATI (1 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 7:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons

    CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    VANDERBILT (3 - 0) at OLE MISS (2 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 7:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    OLE MISS is 1-1 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons

    OLE MISS is 1-1 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MISSISSIPPI ST (1 - 2) at GEORGIA TECH (2 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 1:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WYOMING (2 - 1) at BYU (3 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 3:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    WYOMING is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    WYOMING is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

    WYOMING is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

    WYOMING is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    WYOMING is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    WYOMING is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    BYU is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons

    BYU is 2-0 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LSU (2 - 0) at AUBURN (3 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 7:45 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    LSU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    AUBURN is 2-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons

    AUBURN is 1-1 straight up against LSU over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ALABAMA (3 - 0) at ARKANSAS (2 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 12:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    ARKANSAS is 1-1 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons

    ARKANSAS is 1-1 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MARSHALL (2 - 1) at SOUTHERN MISS (2 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    MARSHALL is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

    MARSHALL is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    MARSHALL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in September games over the last 3 seasons.

    MARSHALL is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.

    MARSHALL is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    SOUTHERN MISS is 2-0 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons

    SOUTHERN MISS is 2-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HOUSTON (1 - 2) at COLORADO ST (1 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 3:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons

    HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    RUTGERS (0 - 2) at NAVY (1 - 2) - 9/20/2008, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    NAVY is 98-69 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all games since 1992.

    NAVY is 92-63 ATS (+22.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    NAVY is 61-40 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    NAVY is 98-69 ATS (+22.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

    NAVY is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    RUTGERS is 2-0 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons

    RUTGERS is 2-0 straight up against NAVY over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    VIRGINIA TECH (2 - 1) at N CAROLINA (2 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    VIRGINIA TECH is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    VIRGINIA TECH is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    N CAROLINA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    N CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons

    VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    IOWA (3 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    IOWA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    IOWA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WAKE FOREST (2 - 0) at FLORIDA ST (2 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 7:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    WAKE FOREST is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons

    WAKE FOREST is 2-0 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NOTRE DAME (2 - 0) at MICHIGAN ST (2 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 3:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    MICHIGAN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons

    MICHIGAN ST is 1-1 straight up against NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BOISE ST (2 - 0) at OREGON (3 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    OREGON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

    BOISE ST is 71-44 ATS (+22.6 Units) in all games since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 71-44 ATS (+22.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UTAH (3 - 0) at AIR FORCE (3 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 4:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    AIR FORCE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    AIR FORCE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

    AIR FORCE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

    AIR FORCE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    AIR FORCE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    AIR FORCE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    UTAH is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    AIR FORCE is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons

    AIR FORCE is 1-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW MEXICO (1 - 2) at TULSA (2 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 7:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BALL ST (3 - 0) at INDIANA (2 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    INDIANA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

    BALL ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

    BALL ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.

    BALL ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    INDIANA is 1-1 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons

    INDIANA is 2-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    C MICHIGAN (2 - 1) at PURDUE (1 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    C MICHIGAN is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    PURDUE is 1-1 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons

    PURDUE is 2-0 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    AKRON (1 - 2) at ARMY (0 - 2) - 9/20/2008, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    AKRON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

    ARMY is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

    ARMY is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

    ARMY is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    AKRON is 1-0 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons

    AKRON is 1-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    E MICHIGAN (1 - 2) at MARYLAND (2 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    E MICHIGAN is 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

    MARYLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIAMI (1 - 1) at TEXAS A&M (1 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    TEXAS A&M is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons

    MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    E CAROLINA (3 - 0) at NC STATE (1 - 2) - 9/20/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    E CAROLINA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

    E CAROLINA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    E CAROLINA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

    E CAROLINA is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    E CAROLINA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    NC STATE is 1-1 against the spread versus E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons

    NC STATE is 1-1 straight up against E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BUFFALO (2 - 1) at MISSOURI (3 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 2:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    MISSOURI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    MISSOURI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

    MISSOURI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

    MISSOURI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    MISSOURI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FRESNO ST (1 - 1) at TOLEDO (1 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 8:15 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    TOLEDO is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    TOLEDO is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

    TOLEDO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home games since 1992.

    TOLEDO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    RICE (2 - 1) at TEXAS (2 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 7:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    TEXAS is 2-0 against the spread versus RICE over the last 3 seasons

    TEXAS is 2-0 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    IDAHO (1 - 2) at UTAH ST (0 - 3) - 9/20/2008, 4:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    IDAHO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    UTAH ST is 1-1 against the spread versus IDAHO over the last 3 seasons

    UTAH ST is 1-1 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TCU (3 - 0) at SMU (1 - 2) - 9/20/2008, 8:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

    SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    SMU is 1-0 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons

    TCU is 1-0 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FLORIDA (2 - 0) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 3:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    TENNESSEE is 1-1 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons

    FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    GEORGIA (3 - 0) at ARIZONA ST (2 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 8:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    GEORGIA is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

    GEORGIA is 45-24 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    IOWA ST (2 - 1) at UNLV (2 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 9:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    IOWA ST is 14-36 ATS (-25.6 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.

    UNLV is 42-65 ATS (-29.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    UNLV is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    UNLV is 1-0 against the spread versus IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons

    IOWA ST is 1-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN JOSE ST (2 - 1) at STANFORD (1 - 2) - 9/20/2008, 9:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    SAN JOSE ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    STANFORD is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    STANFORD is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    STANFORD is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons

    STANFORD is 1-1 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW MEXICO ST (0 - 1) at UTEP (0 - 2) - 9/20/2008, 9:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    UTEP is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    NEW MEXICO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus UTEP over the last 3 seasons

    UTEP is 1-1 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ARIZONA (2 - 1) at UCLA (1 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 3:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    ARIZONA is 51-76 ATS (-32.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    ARIZONA is 26-52 ATS (-31.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    UCLA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    UCLA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    UCLA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

    UCLA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

    UCLA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    UCLA is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

    UCLA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TROY (2 - 0) at OHIO ST (2 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    OHIO ST is 102-74 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIDDLE TENN ST (1 - 2) at ARKANSAS ST (2 - 1) - 9/20/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    MIDDLE TENN ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons

    MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 straight up against ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA MONROE (1 - 2) at TULANE (0 - 2) - 9/20/2008, 3:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    TULANE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 2) at MINNESOTA (3 - 0) - 9/20/2008, 7:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

    FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    S FLORIDA (3 - 0) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (0 - 2) - 9/20/2008, 5:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    FLA INTERNATIONAL is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons

    S FLORIDA is 1-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KENT ST (1 - 2) at LA LAFAYETTE (0 - 2) - 9/20/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    KENT ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    KENT ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

    KENT ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    KENT ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    LA LAFAYETTE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    LA LAFAYETTE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 18, 2008 1:55am
12. Thursday, September 18

    8:30 PM WEST VIRGINIA vs. COLORADO

    West Virginia is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games

    West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

    Colorado is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

    Friday, September 19

    8:00 PM BAYLOR vs. CONNECTICUT

    Baylor is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games

    Baylor is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

    Connecticut is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games

    Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    Saturday, September 20

    12:00 PM EAST CAROLINA vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE

    East Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

    East Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

    North Carolina State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

    12:00 PM TROY vs. OHIO STATE

    Troy is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

    Troy is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road

    Ohio State is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games at home

    Ohio State is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games

    12:00 PM FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. MINNESOTA

    Florida Atlantic is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

    Florida Atlantic is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

    Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

    Minnesota is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games

    12:00 PM TEMPLE vs. PENN STATE

    Temple is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Penn State

    Temple is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Penn State

    Penn State is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home

    Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

    12:00 PM IOWA vs. PITTSBURGH

    Iowa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

    Iowa is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road

    Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home

    12:00 PM CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. PURDUE

    Central Michigan is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games

    Central Michigan is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road

    Purdue is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

    Purdue is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home

    12:00 PM OHIO vs. NORTHWESTERN

    Ohio is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

    Ohio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

    Northwestern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

    Northwestern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

    12:30 PM ALABAMA vs. ARKANSAS

    Alabama is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arkansas

    Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arkansas

    Arkansas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

    Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    1:00 PM MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. GEORGIA TECH

    Mississippi State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road

    Mississippi State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    Georgia Tech is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home

    1:00 PM S. CAROLINA ST vs. CLEMSON

    No trends available

    Clemson is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

    Clemson is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home

    1:00 PM EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. MARYLAND

    Eastern Michigan is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games

    Eastern Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

    Maryland is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home

    1:00 PM CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. BOSTON COLLEGE

    Central Florida is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

    Central Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

    Boston College is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

    Boston College is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games

    1:05 PM AKRON vs. ARMY

    Akron is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

    Akron is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road

    Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

    Army is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

    2:00 PM BUFFALO vs. MISSOURI

    Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

    Buffalo is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games

    Missouri is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

    Missouri is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

    3:00 PM ARIZONA vs. UCLA

    Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

    Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

    UCLA is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona

    UCLA is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

    3:00 PM WYOMING vs. BYU

    Wyoming is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

    Wyoming is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road

    BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Wyoming

    BYU is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Wyoming

    3:00 PM LOUISIANA-MONROE vs. TULANE

    Louisiana-Monroe is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

    Louisiana-Monroe is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

    Tulane is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

    Tulane is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

    3:00 PM INDIANA STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

    Indiana State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

    Indiana State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

    Northern Illinois is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games

    3:30 PM BOISE STATE vs. OREGON

    Boise State is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games

    Boise State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games on the road

    Oregon is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

    Oregon is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

    3:30 PM NOTRE DAME vs. MICHIGAN STATE

    Notre Dame is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Michigan State

    Notre Dame is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Michigan State

    Michigan State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

    Michigan State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

    3:30 PM MARSHALL vs. SOUTHERN MISS

    Marshall is 4-18-2 ATS in its last 24 games on the road

    Marshall is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    Southern Miss is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

    Southern Miss is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

    3:30 PM RUTGERS vs. NAVY

    Rutgers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road

    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rutgers's last 6 games on the road

    Navy is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Rutgers

    Navy is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Rutgers

    3:30 PM VIRGINIA TECH vs. NORTH CAROLINA

    Virginia Tech is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

    Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

    North Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech

    North Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

    3:30 PM NORTHEASTERN vs. SYRACUSE

    Northeastern is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games

    Northeastern is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    Syracuse is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

    Syracuse is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

    3:30 PM FLORIDA vs. TENNESSEE

    Florida is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

    Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

    Tennessee is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

    Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    3:30 PM HOUSTON vs. COLORADO STATE

    Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road

    Colorado State is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games

    Colorado State is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home

    4:00 PM UTAH vs. AIR FORCE

    Utah is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Air Force

    Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Air Force

    Air Force is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

    Air Force is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

    4:00 PM ALABAMA STATE vs. UAB

    No trends available

    UAB is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

    UAB is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

    4:00 PM IDAHO vs. UTAH STATE

    Idaho is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

    Idaho is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    Utah State is 2-19 SU in its last 21 games

    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah State's last 6 games

    5:00 PM SOUTH FLORIDA vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

    South Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

    South Florida is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road

    Florida International is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games

    Florida International is 1-24 SU in its last 25 games

    7:00 PM TENNESSEE TECH vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN

    Tennessee Tech is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    Tennessee Tech is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

    Western Michigan is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

    Western Michigan is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home

    7:00 PM KENT STATE vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

    Kent State is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games

    Kent State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

    Louisiana-Lafayette is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

    Louisiana-Lafayette is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games

    7:00 PM VANDERBILT vs. MISSISSIPPI

    Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Vanderbilt's last 14 games

    Mississippi is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Vanderbilt

    Mississippi is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Vanderbilt

    7:00 PM PORTLAND STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE

    Portland State is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games

    Portland State is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road

    Washington State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

    Washington State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

    7:00 PM WOFFORD vs. SOUTH CAROLINA

    Wofford is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

    Wofford is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    South Carolina is 2-5-2 ATS in its last 9 games

    South Carolina is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games

    7:00 PM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA vs. LOUISIANA TECH

    Southeastern Louisiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    Southeastern Louisiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

    Louisiana Tech is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

    Louisiana Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

    7:00 PM MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. ARKANSAS STATE

    Middle Tennessee is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

    Middle Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

    Arkansas State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee

    Arkansas State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee

    7:00 PM MURRAY STATE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY

    Murray State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

    Murray State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    Western Kentucky is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games

    7:00 PM RICE vs. TEXAS

    Rice is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

    Rice is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road

    Texas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Rice

    Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Rice

    7:00 PM NEW MEXICO vs. TULSA

    New Mexico is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

    New Mexico is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games

    Tulsa is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tulsa's last 6 games

    7:00 PM SAM HOUSTON STATE vs. KANSAS

    Sam Houston State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

    Sam Houston State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    Kansas is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games

    Kansas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games

    7:00 PM MASSACHUSETTS vs. TEXAS TECH

    Massachusetts is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

    Massachusetts is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    Texas Tech is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home

    Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

    7:00 PM BALL STATE vs. INDIANA

    Ball State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

    Ball State is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games on the road

    Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

    Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

    7:00 PM MIAMI vs. TEXAS A&M

    Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

    Miami is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road

    Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

    Texas A&M is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

    7:00 PM WAKE FOREST vs. FLORIDA STATE

    Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Florida State

    Wake Forest is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Florida State

    Florida State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

    Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Wake Forest

    7:30 PM MIAMI (OHIO) vs. CINCINNATI

    Miami (Ohio) is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

    Miami (Ohio) is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road

    Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami (Ohio)

    Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami (Ohio)

    7:45 PM LSU vs. AUBURN

    LSU is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games

    LSU is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

    Auburn is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LSU

    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Auburn's last 7 games when playing LSU

    8:00 PM TCU vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST

    TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

    TCU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Southern Methodist

    Southern Methodist is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing TCU

    Southern Methodist is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing TCU

    8:00 PM GEORGIA vs. ARIZONA STATE

    Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

    Georgia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road

    Arizona State is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games

    Arizona State is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home

    8:00 PM NICHOLLS STATE vs. MEMPHIS

    Nicholls State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

    Nicholls State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road

    Memphis is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

    Memphis is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games at home

    8:15 PM FRESNO STATE vs. TOLEDO

    Fresno State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

    Fresno State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

    Toledo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

    9:00 PM SAN JOSE STATE vs. STANFORD

    San Jose State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

    San Jose State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Stanford

    Stanford is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Jose State

    Stanford is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Jose State

    9:00 PM IOWA STATE vs. UNLV

    Iowa State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

    Iowa State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

    UNLV is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

    UNLV is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games

    9:05 PM NEW MEXICO STATE vs. TEXAS EL PASO

    New Mexico State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas El Paso

    New Mexico State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Texas El Paso

    Texas El Paso is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

    Texas El Paso is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 18, 2008 1:55am
13. NCAAF

    Short Sheet

    Week 4

    Thursday, September 18th

    West Virginia at Colorado, 8:30 ET ESPN

    West Virginia: 8-2 ATS off ATS loss

    Colorado: 4-12 ATS as an underdog

    Friday, September 19th

    Baylor at Connecticut, 8:00 ET ESPN2

    Baylor: 5-14 ATS as an underdog

    Connecticut: 10-0 Under after scoring 37+ points

    Saturday, September 20th

    Temple at Penn State, 12:00 ET Big 10

    Temple: 2-8 ATS vs. Big 10

    Penn State: 9-2 ATS vs. non-conference

    (TC) Central Florida at Boston College, 1:00 ET ESPNU

    Central Florida: 6-1 Under off BB non-conference games

    Boston College: 1-4 ATS off BB Unders

    Ohio at Northwestern, 12:00 ET Big 10

    Ohio: 8-2 ATS as road underdog

    Northwestern: 1-8 ATS off a SU win

    (TC) Miami (OH) at Cincinnati, 7:30 ET

    Miami (OH): 0-5 ATS if 60+ points were scored last game

    Cincinnati: 7-0 ATS off BB non-conf games

    (TC) Vanderbilt at Ole Miss, 7:00 ET

    Vanderbilt: 2-14 ATS off home win by 17+ points

    Ole Miss: 5-1 ATS off a home win

    (TC) Mississippi State at Georgia Tech, 12:00 ET

    Mississippi State: 8-3 ATS in road games

    Georgia Tech: 2-8 ATS off ATS win

    Wyoming at BYU, 3:00 ET MTN

    Wyoming: 0-8 ATS vs. conference

    BYU: 6-0 ATS at home 1st half of season

    (TC) LSU at Auburn, 7:45 ET ESPN

    LSU: 3-11 ATS vs. conference

    Auburn: 5-1 ATS as an underdog

    (TC) Alabama at Arkansas, 12:30 ET

    Alabama: 5-12 ATS as a favorite

    Arkansas: 10-3 Over in home games

    Marshall at Southern Miss, 3:30 ET

    Marshall: 3-11 ATS as a road underdog

    Southern Miss: 10-3 ATS off SU win as underdog

    Houston at Colorado State, 3:30 ET

    Houston: 3-0 ATS off BB Overs

    Colorado State: 5-1 Under off SU win

    Rutgers at Navy, 3:30 ET CBSC

    Rutgers: 1-8 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less

    Navy: 64-40 ATS as an underdog

    Virginia Tech at North Carolina, 3:30 ET ABC

    Virginia Tech: 8-1 ATS Away vs. non-conference

    North Carolina: 19-34 ATS as home favorite

    (TC) Iowa at Pittsburgh, 12:00 ET ESPN2

    Iowa: 0-7 ATS off BB SU wins

    Pittsburgh: 6-0 ATS off a home win

    (TC) Wake Forest at Florida State, 7:00 ET ESPN2

    Wake Forest: 10-3 Under off BB SU wins

    Florida State: 10-2 ATS at home off BB home games

    Notre Dame at Michigan State, 3:30 ET ABC

    Notre Dame: 1-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

    Michigan State: 10-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points

    Boise State at Oregon, 3:30 ET

    Boise State: 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points

    Oregon: 20-6 ATS off BB non-conf games

    Utah at Air Force, 4:00 ET VER

    Utah: 1-7 ATS off road win by 28+ points

    Air Force: 8-1 ATS vs. conference

    New Mexico at Tulsa, 7:00 ET

    New Mexico: 6-1 ATS off non-conference game

    Tulsa: 0-6 ATS after scoring 31+ points BB games

    Ball State at Indiana, 7:00 ET Big 10

    Ball State: 6-0 ATS in September

    Indiana: 2-10 ATS after scoring 31+ points BB games

    (TC) Central Michigan at Purdue, 12:00 ET Big 10

    Central Michigan: 14-1 ATS off a road game

    Purdue: 10-3 Under in home games

    (TC) Akron at Army, 1:00 ET ESPNC

    Akron: 0-6 ATS off home game

    Army: 7-23 ATS off bye week

    (TC) Eastern Michigan at Maryland, 1:00 ET

    Eastern Michigan: 5-0 ATS off BB ATS losses

    Maryland: 1-8 ATS as favorite

    (TC) Temple at Buffalo, 12:00 ET

    Temple: 18-35 ATS in September

    Buffalo: 9-2 ATS off an Under

    (TC) Miami (FL) at Texas A&M, 3:30 ET

    Miami (FL): 1-6 ATS off ATS win

    Texas A&M: 8-2 Over vs. non-conference

    (TC) East Carolina at NC State, 12:00 ET

    East Carolina: 18-4 ATS on grass

    NC State: 1-6 ATS vs. non-conference

    Buffalo at Missouri, 2:00 ET

    Buffalo: 11-3 Under vs. non-conference

    Missouri: 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference

    (TC) Fresno State at Toledo, 8:15 ET ESPNU

    Fresno State: 0-9 ATS off non-conference game

    Toledo: 10-1 ATS at home off win by 21+ points

    Rice at Texas, 7:00 ET

    Rice: 24-3 Over L27 games

    Texas: 1-6 ATS off cover as DD favorite

    (TC) Idaho at Utah State, 4:00 ET

    Idaho: 2-11 ATS off a loss by 35+ points

    Utah State: 0-6 ATS off home loss

    TCU at SMU, 8:00 ET CBSC

    TCU: 9-2 ATS off BB SU wins

    SMU: 0-6 ATS in home games

    (TC) Florida at Tennessee, 3:30 ET CBS

    Florida: 1-5 ATS off BB home wins

    Tennessee: 22-10 ATS off BB ATS losses

    Georgia at Arizona State, 8:00 ET ABC

    Georgia: 6-0 Under as road favorite

    Arizona State: 2-6 ATS as an underdog

    Iowa State at UNLV, 9:00 ET MTN

    Iowa State: 11-2 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points

    UNLV: 8-20 ATS at home off ATS win

    San Jose State at Stanford, 10:00 ET

    San Jose State: 10-2 ATS off SU win

    Stanford: 2-10 ATS off BB road losses

    New Mexico State at UTEP, 10:00 ET

    New Mexico State: 7-1 ATS off an Under

    UTEP: 1-8 ATS as favorite

    (TC) Arizona at UCLA, 3:00 ET

    Arizona: 26-52 ATS as favorite

    UCLA: 18-4 ATS as home underdog

    Added Games

    Troy at Ohio State, 12:00 ET Big 10

    Troy: 5-1 ATS after scoring 37 points

    Ohio State: 17-7 Under off BB ATS losses

    (TC) Middle Tennessee State at Arkansas State, 7:00 ET

    Middle Tenn State: 8-2 ATS off BB ATS wins

    Arkansas State: 1-5 ATS off BB ATS games

    (TC) Louisiana Monroe at Tulane, 3:00 ET

    LA Monroe: 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less

    Tulane: 6-17 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points

    (TC) Florida Atlantic at Minnesota, 12:00 ET Big 10

    Florida Atlantic: 7-0 ATS off non-conference game

    Minnesota: 6-0 Over as home favorite

    (TC) South Florida at Florida International, 5:00 ET ESPNU

    South Florida: 3-0 ATS after a win by 6 or less points

    Florida International: 0-7 ATS off BB Unders

    Kent State at UL-Lafayette, 7:00 ET

    Kent State: 1-11 ATS on Saturday

    UL-Lafayette: 2-8 ATS in home games

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 18, 2008 1:56am
14. THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

    TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

    BYU

    That was a real warning shot fired by BYU a week ago vs. UCLA,

    but we didn’t need any extra convincing to give the Cougars a solid

    recommendation at Provo for their Saturday battle vs. struggling

    Wyoming. BYU has owned this series since losing to HC Joe Glenn’s

    first Cowboy team in 2003, winning and covering the last 4 meetings,

    all by double-digit margins. And the Cougs have been reliable as home

    chalk lately, too, covering 9 of their last 12 in that role. Meanwhile, Wyo

    continues on an extended pointspread slide, standing 0-10-1 vs. the

    number its last 11 on the board, and 2-15-1 its last 18 against the spread.

    HOUSTON

    There are several “go against” situations in college football, and

    Colorado State certainly seems one of those stragglers. The Rams

    have been laboring lately, especially vs. the line at home, covering just

    4 of their last 12 at Fort Collins, and are in tough again Saturday

    afternoon when potent Houston comes calling. And since 2003, the

    Rams have covered only 1 of 5 as a home dog, and overall stand a

    subpar 19-30 vs. the number their last 49 on the board. As for the

    Cougars, they’ve capitalized on most of their recent chances as road

    chalk, covering 5 of their last 7 in that role.

    SAN JOSE STATE

    About this time each season, we want to begin paying special

    attention to a couple of weekly calculations highlighted in our Systems

    Spotlight feature, those being Pointspread Streaks and “AFS” (Away

    from Spread). And each of those identify San Jose State as a team

    to watch as the Spartans make the short trip up the Bayshore

    Freeway for their annual battle with nearby Stanford Saturday night.

    San Jose could be in the early stages of an extending pointspread

    uptick, covering its first 2 games on the board this season, and the

    Spartans have recorded a noteworthy +11.50 “AFS” mark their last two

    games. Meanwhile, the Cardinal has long underachieved vs. the number

    at home, dropping 14 of its last 21 vs. the line on the Farm since mid ’04.

    ARIZONA

    Last week’s disappointing loss at New Mexico might be a

    temporary blip on the Arizona radar screen, as the Wildcats look

    to get back to their winning ways Saturday at the Rose Bowl vs.

    shellshocked UCLA. Remember, UA had covered 6 straight before

    its slip-up vs. the Lobos. And if the Cats are getting any points this

    wwek, they’ll be a featured recommendation under HC Mike

    Stoops in the College Coach as Underdog system (thanks to their

    16-7-1 spread mark their last 24 as the “short”). As for the reeling

    Bruins, note their poor –20.00 “AFS” mark the last two games after

    that shellacking absorbed vs. BYU.

    N.Y. GIANTS

    It’s about time we start showing a bit of respect to the world

    champs! After all, the New York Giants haven’t failed to cover a

    pointspread since early last December, covering 8 in a row since.

    Taking it back a bit further, the G-Men are now 10-1 vs. the number their

    last 11 on the board, and 16-4 their last 20 against the line. So, why not

    recommend them Sunday at the Meadowlands vs. struggling Cincinnati?

    For the Bengals, it’s been a nightmarish beginning to the campaign,

    failing to cover their first 2 out of the chute, and their spread mark is a

    poor 4-11 their last 15 against the number dating to early last season.

    N.O.-DENVER “OVER”

    There’s no secret about the “totals” patterns of New Orleans and

    Denver lately. They’ve both been going “over” a lot, which figures

    to happen again in Sunday’s encounter at Invesco Field. As for the

    Saints, they’re “over” 15 of their last 21 overall, while the Broncos are

    “over” 18 of their last 23. Denver is also “over” 13-5 its last 18 as host.

    TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

    WEST VIRGINIA at COLORADO (Thursday, September

    18)…WVU had been good visiting chalk for Rodriguez (9-3-1 last 3

    years), but Stewart failed his first chance in role miserably vs.

    ECU. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on extended trends.

    BAYLOR at UCONN (Friday, September 19)…Art Briles was 5-2

    as visiting dog the past three years with UH. Edsall’s extended

    chalk marks are good (7-2 since ’06, 10-3 since ’05, 18-7-1 since ’03).

    Tech edge-slight to UConn, based on extended trends.

    TEMPLE at PENN STATE…Shades has had a few close calls in

    career vs. Owls but not the last 2 years, winning and covering by a

    combined 78-0. Vicious Shades 12-3 vs. line last 15 as DD chalk.

    But Owls off to 2-0 start vs. line TY as gradual improvement

    continues under Al Golden. Tech edge-slight to Shades,

    based on DD chalk mark.

    UCF at BOSTON COLLEGE…O’Leary now 5-1 vs. line his last 6

    as dog. BC on 4-9 spread run last 13 as chalk and 2-6 last 8 on

    board for Jags after quick break from gate last season. Tech

    edge-UCF, based on team trends.

    OHIO at NORTHWESTERN… Cats covered opener as home

    chalk vs. Cuse but NU still just 3-9 laying points at Evanston since

    ’03. Solich has now covered last 3 as road dog after getting W in

    pair of those to open campaign, and 7-3 as road dog since ’06.

    Tech edge-Solich, based on team trends.

    MIAMI-OHIO at CINCINNATI…Local rivals. Edge the past two

    years to Cincy with decisive wins and covers, and Cincy has also

    covered 4 of last 5 meetings. RedHawks, however, 7-1 vs. line last

    8 as road dog. Tech edge-slight to Miami-O, team trends.

    VANDY at OLE MISS…Vandy has covered 6 of last 7 in series,

    and Bobby Johnson covered both vs. Houston Nutt (when at

    Arkansas) in ’05 & ’06. Dores 11-3 as road dog since ’05, 16-7

    since ’03, and 9-3 last 10 as SEC road dog. Tech edge-Vandy,

    based on team and series trends.

    MISSISSIPPI STATE at GEORGIA TECH…Sly Croom 7-2-1 vs.

    line last 10 as road dog and 9-3-1 vs. line last 13 away.. Tech

    edge-slight to Sly Croom, based on team trends.

    WYOMING at BYU…BYU has dominated matters since losing to

    Joe Glenn’s first Wyo team back in ’03. Since then, Cougs have

    won and covered last 4, all by DD margins. Bronco 9-3 vs. line as

    home chalk since ’06. Cowboys on 0-10-1 spread run dating to

    early ’07 and 2-15-1 vs. number last 18 on board! Tech edge-

    BYU, based on series and team trends.

    LSU at AUBURN…Brutally close series of late, the last 4 all

    decided by 6 or fewer, and that 30-24 LSU win LY was decided on

    TD with 1 second left in game! Auburn has covered the last 3

    meetings and has beaten LSU the last four times these two have

    tussled at Jordan-Hare. Les Miles only 2-6-1 vs. line as visitor the

    last two seasons. Tech edge-Auburn, especially if dog,

    based on team and recent series trends.

    ALABAMA at ARKANSAS…Close series the last couple of

    years, the last 2 decided by 4 points total. Road team has covered

    last 3 meetings, though Arkansas has covered 4 of last 5 in series.

    Bama 2-7 as chalk for Nick since LY, 6-20 overall last 26 as chalk

    dating to late ’04. Tech edge-Arkansas, based on Bama chalk

    negatives.

    MARSHALL at SOUTHERN MISS…Herd road woes continue,

    just 4-19 vs. line last 23 away from Huntington. Tech edge-USM,

    based on team trends.

    HOUSTON at COLORADO STATE…CSU only 3-7 vs. line last 10

    at Fort Collins, 1-3 as home dog since ’06. Tech edge-UH, based

    on recent CSU negatives.

    RUTGERS at NAVY…Rutgers own edge lately, winning and

    covering last 3 and 6 of last 7 in series. Mids only 1-4 vs. line at

    Annapolis LY, 2-7 since ’06, although Navy still 16-7-1 as dog since

    ’03 (but 0-2 in dog role vs. Scarlet Knights that span). Schiano was

    3-0 as chalk away from home LY. Tech edge-Rutgers, based

    on team and series trends.

    VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA…Hokies have won and

    covered last 6 as ACC visitor. Tech edge-Beamer, based on

    team trends.

    IOWA at PITTSBURGH…Hawkeyes just 2-8 vs. line as visitor

    since ’06, 4-11 vs. number as visitor since ’05. If Wannstedt chalk,

    note 1-8 spread mark last 9 in role. Tech edge-slight to Iowa,

    based on Wannstedt chalk woes.

    WAKE FOREST at FLORIDA STATE…Wake has won last 2 SU

    vs. FSU and has covered last 4 and 8 of last 10 in series. Grobe 14-

    6 as short since ’05, 22-12 since ’03. Bowden 4-8 vs. line as

    Tallahassee chalk since ’06, 5-11 in role since ’05. Tech edge-

    Wake, based on team and series trends.

    NOTRE DAME at MICHIGAN STATE…Road team 6-0-1 vs. line

    last 7 in series. Tech edge-slight to ND, based on series

    trends.

    BOISE STATE at OREGON…Ducks 7-1 vs. line as Autzen

    Stadium chalk since ’07, 14-3 as home chalk since ’05. Boise 6-10-

    1 vs. spread as visitor since ’05. Tech edge-Oregon, based on

    team trends.

    UTAH at AIR FORCE…Road team has covered last 6 and 8 of

    last 9 in series. Force, however, 5-0 vs. line at home under Calhoun

    and 11-3 vs. line since he took over LY. Tech edge-slight to

    AFA, based on team trends.

    NEW MEXICO at TULSA…Golden Hurricane has won and

    covered big its first 2 TY and has covered last 3 since the end of

    ’07. Tulsa has covered first 2 as DD chalk in ’08 but was 0-5 in role

    LY. Lobos 3-7 vs. line last 10 on board. Tech edge-Tulsa,

    based on recent trends.

    BALL STATE at INDIANA…Home team has covered the last 2

    years in series, and Hoosiers 7–1 as home chalk since ’03 (0-1 TY,

    however). But Cards 13-3 vs. line last 16 away, 7-2 as visiting dog

    since ’06. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on team

    trends.

    CENTRAL MICHIGAN at PURDUE…These two getting used to

    one another, with their third meeting since last season. Purdue

    won both LY but only covered the first meeting, as Chips covered

    wild bowl game. Chips now 1-4 as visiting dog since LY. Tiller was

    3-2 as Ross-Ade chalk LY but is only 4-9 vs. line in role since ’05.

    Tech edge-slight to Purdue, based on team trends.

    AKRON at ARMY…Army 3-7 as dog for Stan Brock, 4-10 vs.

    number at West Point since ’05. Black Knights also a mere 7-17 vs.

    number last 24 on board. Tech edge-Akron, based on team

    trends.

    EASTERN MICHIGAN at MARYLAND…EMU only 4-10 vs. line

    last 14 as dog. Ralph, however, just 1-7 vs. line as home chalk

    since ’05, and a mere 5-12 vs. line last 17 on board. Tech edgeslight

    to EMU, based on Fridge negatives.

    MIAMI-FLORIDA at TEXAS A&M…Shannon just 4-9 vs. line

    since taking over at Miami LY, although one of those covers was

    easy home win over A&M LY. If Canes road chalk note 1-6 mark in

    role since ’05. Tech edge-slight to A&M, based on extended

    Miami negatives.

    EAST CAROLINA at NC STATE…Dog has won and covered the

    last two seasons. But Skip 28-12 overall vs. line at ECU since ‘05.

    Wolfpack and just 9-23 last 32 vs. line at Raleigh. Tech edge-ECU,

    based on team trends.

    BUFFALO at MISSOURI…Tigers have covered their last 8 vs.

    non-Big XII opposition. Tigers 10-2 vs. line as chalk since. Tech

    edge-Mizzou, based on team trends.

    FRESNO STATE at TOLEDO…FSU 2-8 as DD chalk since ’06 (1-

    3 LY), 0-3 as DD road chalk since ’06. Toledo has been better at

    Glass Bowl lately for Amstutz, at least opposed to road mark, and

    home team 19-7 vs. line last 25 Rocket games on board. Tech

    edge-slight to Toledo, based on team trends.

    RICE at TEXAS…Texas has punished Rice the last 3 years,

    scoring 51 or more on each occasion and covering all of those,

    covering 34-point-or-more lines in each. Mack has covered first 2

    in ’08 laying 20+. Tech edge-Texas, based on series trends.

    IDAHO at UTAH STATE…Idaho only 1-10 vs. line last 11 on

    board, however, and mere 6-14 last 20 as dog. Utags in rare chalk

    role (0-1 since ’06) and just 3-10 vs. line last 13 at Logan. Tech

    edge-slight to USU, based on team trends.

    TCU at SMU… SMU has covered last 2 and 4 of last 5 in series,

    covering last 2 vs. Frogs at Gerald Ford Stadium. TCU on 6-1

    spread run dating to late LY. Ponies were 0-6 vs. line at home LY.

    Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent team trends.

    FLORIDA at TENNESSEE…Urban Meyer 3-0 SU vs. Vols,

    although home team has covered last 3 meetings (2 of those by

    Gators). Urban Meyer 1-3 as road chalk LY, however, and just 2-

    8 as visiting chalk since ’05. Vols 5-1-1 vs. line at home LY, 9-4-1

    as host since ’06, and 4-0 as home dog since ’06. Tech edge-

    Tennessee, based on extended team trends.

    GEORGIA at ARIZONA STATE…Richt 12-7 vs. line last 19 away

    from Athens. Richt also has covered all 5 chances as nonconference

    visitors (most of those vs. GT) since taking over

    Dawgs in ’01. Note Sun Devils 0-3 as dog for Erickson LY (0-1 as

    home dog), and ASU 7-16 last 23 as dog dating to late ’03. Tech

    edge-Georgia, based on team trends.

    IOWA STATE at UNLV…If Rebs dog note 3-1 mark in role LY at

    Sam Boyd Stadium, 9-4 in role under Sanford since ’05. Tech

    edge-UNLV, if dog, based on team trends.

    SAN JOSE STATE at STANFORD…Tree only 7-14 vs. line as

    host since mid ’04. Tech edge-San Jose, based on Tree

    home negatives.

    NEW MEXICO STATE at UTEP…Mumme 1-6 vs. line on road

    since LY and 5-13 vs. line on road since taking over NMSU in ‘05.

    Also just 4-13 vs. line as road dog since ’05. Price, however, just 1-

    8 as chalk since ’06, and no covers last 2 vs. Aggies. Tech edgeslight

    to NMSU, based on UTEP chalk negatives.

    ARIZONA at UCLA…Stoops 16-7-1 vs. line last 24 as dog., and

    Cats have covered 6 of last 7 on board since late ’07 (including 34-

    27 win over UCLA LY). Neuheisel, however, just 5-16-2 his last 23

    as chalk when at U-Dub. Tech edge-Arizona, based on team

    trends.

    TROY at OHIO STATE…Trojans 7-3 as dog since ’06 and 4-2

    that span getting DDs away. Trojans also 16-8 vs. number last 24

    overall on board and 11-4 vs. spread last 15 away from Movie

    Gallery Stadium. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.

    MIDDLE TENNESSEE at ARKANSAS STATE…Ugghhh! MTSU

    has owned this series, winning and covering last 5, all by DD

    margins! Red Wolves starting hot in ’08 but only 3-6 as chalk since

    ’06. Tech edge-MTSU, based on series trends.

    UL-MONROE at TULANE…Weatherbie 13-6-1 vs. line as road dog

    since ’05, 17-8-1 as dog overall that span. Warhawks 9-2 as singledigit

    dog that span. Tech edge-ULM, based on team trends.

    FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MINNESOTA…Ugh! Revenge for

    Gophers after losing 42-39 at Dolphin Stadium LY. Brewster,

    however, 0-4 as chalk since arriving at UM in ’07. But Howard no

    cover last 11 as non-conference visitor, and FAU just 4-9 as road

    dog since ’06. Tech edge-slight to Minnesota, based on

    team trends.

    SOUTH FLORIDA at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL…Cristobal was

    3-1 as home dog LY and 2-0 getting DDs at FIU Stadium. Tech

    edge-slight to FIU, based on team trends.

    KENT STATE at LOUISIANA…Golden Flashes just 2-13 vs.

    number last 15 on board. If Kent State favored note 2-10 mark in

    role since ’05. Tech edge-Louisiana, based on KSU

    negatives.

    COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

    COACH & POINTSPREAD-ARKANSAS over Alabama, AUBURN

    over Lsu@, BALL STATE over Indiana, BYU over Wyoming, CINCINNATI

    over Miami-Ohio@, EAST CAROLINA over NC State@, GEORGIA

    TECH over Mississippi State, UL-MONROE obver Tulane, MICHIGAN

    STATE over Notre Dame@, MISSOURI over Buffalo, OHIO STATE

    over Troy, OREGON over Boise State@, SOUTH FLORIDA over

    Florida International, TCU over Smu@, VIRGINIA TECH over North

    Carolina.

    COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-AUBURN* over Lsu, UL-MONROE

    over Tulane, MEW MEXICO over Tulsa, NC State over East

    Carolina@, VIRGINIA TECH* over North Carolina, WAKE FOREST over

    Florida State, and dog in ARIZONA-UCLA game.

    RIVALRY DOGS-MIAMI-OHIO over Cincinanti@, SMU over Tcu@.

    POWER UNDERDOGS-ARIZONA STATE over Georgia, BOISE

    STATE over Oregon@, IOWA over Pitt, NEW MEXICO over Tulsa,

    TENNESSEE over Florida, VIRGINIA TECH* over North Carolina, WAKE

    FOREST over Florida State, and dog in AUBURN-LSU game.

    PAINFUL MEMORY-UTAH over Air Force, TENNESSEE over Florida.

    POWER REVENGE-AUBURN over Lsu@, TENNESSEE over Florida.

    RESTED HOME WINNERS-COLORADO over West Virginia (Thursday,

    September 18), ARKANSAS over Alabama.

    IMPOTENT FAVORITES-IDAHO over Utah State, SAN JOSE STATE

    over Stanford.

    "AFS" (Away from spread last two decisions): PLUS (+)...SoCal

    +23.00, BYU 21.75,, MTSU 16.75, Penn St 14.75, AFA 14.25, UNLV

    13.50, Cal 13.25, Minn 12.75, Tulane 12.75, Vandy 12.50, Okla 12.25,

    SJSU 11.50, Utah 11.50, Okla. St 11.00, UConn 10.00, Fresno 10.00,

    TCU 10.00, Texas 10.00; MINUS (-)...WSU -32.25, Ida 29.00, Rut

    29.00, Va 24.40, Ohio St 21,50, UCLA 20.00, Haw 19.00, EMU 18.25,

    Wyo 17.25, Syr 15.50, USU 14.75, BGSU 13.0, Pitt 13.00, SMU 12.50

    POINTSPREAD STREAKS: Wins...3-Ohio, USM, Temple, Vandy;

    2-AFA, Ball, Duke, Fla, GT, ISU, MTSU, Ole Miss, Mizzou, NIU, Okla,

    Okla St, Penn St, SJSU, SoCal, TCU, Tex, Tulane, Tulsa, UNLV, Wisc.

    Losses...3-Mich, Syr, UAB, WSU; 2-Aub, BGSU, CMU, EMU, Haw,

    Hou, Ida, Ill, Kent St, Marsh, Navy, Nev, NCS, Pitt, Rut, Stan, Utah St,

    UYTEP, Va, VT, Wyo.

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 19, 2008 9:35pm
15. Football Newsletter Report

    (Top 2 Star Ratings Plays and Special Plays)

    Plays listed are for 9/17 through 9/22.

    Last Updated: Sept. 19, 8pm

    Northcoast Power Sweep

    NCAA Power Sweep 4* (1-2, 33%)

    UTAH -7.5

    NFL Power Sweep 4* (1-0-1, 100%)

    SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -4

    Dog of the Week (1-1, 50%)

    TOLEDO +7

    Early Bird Play (1-0, 100%)

    BYU -26 ( NOW -29 )

    Winning Points

    NCAA Best Bet (4-2, 67%)

    MICHIGAN STATE -8.5

    RUTGERS -5

    NFL Best Bet (1-3, 25%)

    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +5.5

    WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3

    NCAA Preferred (6-8, 43%)

    BOSTON COLLEGE -10.5

    NORTH CAROLINA -2

    UTAH -7.5

    GEORGIA -7

    NFL Preferred (0-2, 0%)

    BUFFALO BILLS -9

    CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5

    Northcoast Power Plays

    NCAA Power Plays 4* (21-15-1, 58%)

    PENN STATE -28

    BYU -29

    AUBURN +2.5

    ALABAMA -9.5

    HOUSTON -6.5

    NORTH CAROLINA -2

    UTAH -7.5

    PURDUE -10.5

    MARYLAND -21

    FLORIDA -7.5

    OHIO STATE -21

    NFL Power Plays 4* (1-3, 33%)

    SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -4

    Pointwise

    NCAA Pointwise 1 (3-3, 50%)

    MICHIGAN STATE -8.5

    MISSOURI -34

    NFL Pointwise 1 (0-0, 0%)

    NCAA Pointwise 2 (0-4, 0%)

    EAST CAROLINA -7.5

    NFL Pointwise 2 (0-1, 0%)

    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -10

    Confidential Kick Off

    NCAA CKO 11 (1-1-1, 50%)

    MINNESOTA -7

    NFL CKO 11 (0-0, 0%)

    NCAA CKO 10 (7-3, 70%)

    RUTGERS -5

    VANDERBILT +6.5

    MIAMI OHIO +12

    NFL CKO 10 (1-1, 50%)

    ATLANTA FALCONS -5

    The Goldsheet

    NCAA Key Releases (7-6, 54%)

    OHIO +10.5

    SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5

    MINNESOTA -7

    NFL Key Releases (2-4, 33%)

    HOUSTON TEXANS +5

    CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5

    NEW YORK JETS/SAN DIEGO CHARGERS OVER 44

    The Goldsheet Extra

    NCAA Technical Plays of the Week (2-2, 50%)

    BYU -29

    HOUSTON -6.5

    SAN JOSE STATE +9

    ARIZONA -2.5

    NFL Technical Plays of the Week (0-0, 0%)

    NEW YORK GIANTS -13.5

    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / DENVER BRONCOS OVER 51.5

    Red Sheet

    NCAA Red Sheet 90 (1-0, 100%)

    NFL Red Sheet 90 (0-0, 0%)

    NCAA Red Sheet 89 (2-3-1, 40%)

    MINNESOTA -7

    MIAMI OHIO +12

    NFL Red Sheet 89 (0-0, 0%)

    NCAA Red Sheet 88 (4-4-1, 50%)

    MICHIGAN STATE -8.5

    SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5

    RUTGERS -5

    NFL Red Sheet 88 (1-1, 50%)

    NEW YORK GIANTS -13.5

    Sports Reporter

    NCAA Super Best Bet (1-0, 100%)

    MIAMI OHIO +12

    NFL Super Best Bet (1-0, 100%)

    NCAA Best Bet (4-6-1, 40%)

    ARIZONA STATE +7

    NOTRE DAME +8.5

    CENTRAL FLORIDA +10.5

    NFL Best Bet (4-1, 80%)

    ARIZONA CARDINALS +3

    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +5.5

    BALTIMORE RAVENS -2

    NCAA Recommended (7-3-1, 70%)

    UL – MONROE +6

    MISSISSIPPI -6.5

    NFL Recommended (0-3, 0%)

    NEW YORK GIANTS -13.5

    Kevin O’Neill The Max

    Erik Scheponik NCAA (1-1, 50%)

    WAKE FOREST +4.5

    Erik Scheponik NFL (1-0, 100%)

    CLEVELAND BROWNS/BALTIMORE RAVENS UNDER 38.5

    Dave Fobare NCAA (2-0, 100%)

    GEORGIA -7

    Dave Fobare NFL (0-1, 0%)

    KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +4.5

    Kevin O’Neill NCAA (4-2, 67%)

    AUBURN +3

    NORTH CAROLINA -1.5

    ARKANSAS STATE -5

    Kevin O’Neill NFL (0-2, 0%)

    ARIZONA CARDINALS +3

    JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5.5

    Matty Baiungo NCAA (1-2, 33%)

    UTAH -7.5

    TENNESSEE +7.5

    Matty Baiungo NFL (2-0, 100%)

    CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5

    HQ Report

    HQ Report 5 (1-1-1, 50%)

    FLORIDA -7

    HQ Report 4 (0-0, 0%)

    HQ Underdog Play (3-0, 100%)

    BAYLOR +14

    HQ Total Recall (1-2, 33%)

    CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs PURDUE PLAY OVER

    HQ ATS (2-1, 67%)

    TULSA -10

    Sports Insight Marketwatch

    NCAA Games to Watch (6-3, 67%)

    MISSISSIPPI –6.5

    AUBURN +3

    TENNESSEE +7.5

    NFL Games to Watch (3-3, 50%)

    CINCINNATI BENGALS +13.5

    MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3

    JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5.5

    The Sports Memo

    Ed Cash NCAA (2-0, 100%)

    GEORGIA -6.5

    Ed Cash NFL (0-0, 0%)

    Fairway Jay NCAA (2-0, 100%)

    Fairway Jay NFL (0-0, 0%)

    OAKLAND AT BUFFALO Under 37

    Tim Trushel NCAA (1-0, 100%)

    NORTH CAROLINA -1.5

    Tim Trushel NFL (1-0, 100%)

    Donnie Black NCAA (2-0, 100%)

    AUBURN +3

    Donnie Black NFL (0-0, 0%)

    Jared Klein NCAA (1-0, 100%)

    Jared Klein NFL (1-0, 100%)

    ST. LOUIS RAMS +10

    Brent Crow NCAA (0-1-1, 0%)

    EAST CAROLINA -7.5

    Brent Crow NFL (0-0, 0%)

    Erin Rynning NCAA (1-0, 100%)

    Erin Rynning NFL (1-0, 100%)

    SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -4

    Rob Veno NCAA (1-0, 0%)

    Rob Veno NFL (1-0, 100%)

    MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3

    Marty Otto NCAA (0-1, 0%)

    NAVY AT RUTGERS Over 58

    Marty Otto NFL (1-0, 100%)

    Teddy Covers NCAA (0-0, 0%)

    SO MISSISSIPPI -9.5

    Teddy Covers NFL (0-1, 0%)

    Marc Lawrence Playbook

    NCAA Best Bet 5 (2-1, 67%)

    BOSTON COLLEGE - 10 1/2

    NFL Best Bet 5 (2-1, 67%)

    CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5

    ARIZONA CARDINALS / WASHINGTON REDSKINS Over 42

    NCAA Best Bet 4 (1-2, 33%)

    GEORGIA -7

    NFL Best Bet 4 (1-1, 50%)

    HOUSTON TEXANS +5

    DETROIT LIONS / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Over 46.5

    Upset Game of the Week (0-2, 0%)

    ARMY +10

    Statfox Platinum Sheet

    NCAA (7-3, 70%)

    LSU -3

    PITTSBURGH -1

    OREGON -12

    TEXAS A&M +3.5

    TENNESSEE +7

    NFL (5-5, 50%)

    KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +4

    ARIZONA CARDINALS +3

    CAROLINA PANTHERS +3

    ST. LOUIS RAMS +10.5

    DENVER BRONCOS -4.5

    Logical Approach

    College Selection of the Week (0-0, 0%)

    TULSA - 10 ½

    NFL Selection of the Week (0-0, 0%)

    MINNESOTA - 3 ½

    College Featured Selections (0-0, 0%)

    VIRGINIA TECH + 2

    UL – MONROE +6

    MISSISSIPPI -6.5

    NFL Featured Selections (0-0, 0%)

    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS + 5 ½

    GREEN BAY + 3

    SAN DIEGO - 9

    Best of NFL Totals (0-0, 0%)

    KANSAS CITY CHIEFS / ATLANTA FALCONS UNDER 36

    OAKLAND RAIDERS / BUFFALO BILLS UNDER 36

    ARIZONA CARDINALS / WASHINGTON REDSKINS OVER 42

    MIAMI DOLPHINS / NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS UNDER 35

    TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS / CHICAGO BEARS UNDER 35 ½

    DETROIT LIONS / SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS OVER 46

    JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS / INDIANAPOLIS COLTS UNDER 42

    CLEVELAND BROWNS / BALTIMORE RAVENS UNDER 38 ½

    College Moneyline Recommendations (1-0, 100%)

    ARKANSAS

    TEXAS A&M

    UL – MONROE

    NFL Moneyline Recommendations (0-0, 0%)

    HOUSTON TEXANS

    TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

    GREEN BAY PACKERS

    Nelly's Sportsline

    NCAA Rating 5 (0-0, 0%)

    TULSA -10.5

    NFL Rating 5 (0-0, 0%)

    WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3

    NCAA Rating 4 (0-0, 0%)

    MIAMI FLORIDA -3.5

    NFL Rating 4 (0-0, 0%)

    MIAMI DOLPHINS +13.5

    Cajun-Sports "Gator Report" Newsletter

    3 Unit Plays (0-0, 0%)

    MISSISSIPPI STATE / GEORGIA TECH UNDER 36.5

    2 Unit Plays (0-0, 0%)

    KENT STATE +2.5

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 20, 2008 3:17am
16. sportsinsights

    NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 4 – Games to Watch

    Vanderbilt vs Mississippi (9/20 7P)

    Vanderbilt is a small surprise early in the season with a 3-0 record, including a home upset of then No.24 ranked South Carolina. The Commodores have an offense dominated by the running game. Quarterback Chris Nickson has more rushing attempts (49) and rushing yards (268) than pass attempts (45) and passing yards (252). He has also rushed for 5 touchdowns, while only tossing two TDs to his receivers. Senior Sean Walker leads all receivers with six catches for 93 yards. Running back Jared Hawkins is Vandy's second-leading rusher with 242 yards on 50 carries, including 107 yards last week in a win over Rice. The Commodores defense isn't the strength of the team, as they are allowing over 350 yards of total offense per game.

    Mississippi is off to a good start in Head Coach Houston Nutt's first season. Two easy wins and a road loss to No. 18 Wake Forest on a last-second field goal, have the Rebels feeling pretty good as they seek their first SEC win since November of 2006. The Rebels are putting up points with Nutt's unorthodox offensive system that likes to spread the ball and confuse defenses. Texas transfer Javon Snead has looked good, but not great, behind center, and he is coming off his worst performance for Ole Miss after throwing no TDs and two interceptions against Samford. The Rebels are averaging over 400 yards of offense per game.

    This game features two teams that have made previous appearances in this column and a pretty big line movement since opening as Mississippi -5 at Pinnacle. The Rebels are currently laying 7 points to the Commodores across the board, even with Vandy garnering 60% of the public bets. That kind of movement with the public backing the underdog indicates the Sharps are giving up the points to take the home team. We tend to follow those guys here at Sports Marketwatch, so why change now? We'll go against Vandy for a second straight week, and hope Ole Miss comes through for us again.

    Mississippi –6.5

    LSU vs Arkansas (9/20 7:45PM)

    LSU has dominated two underdogs by scoring 41 points in both of its first two games. They will get a much stiffer test as the open SEC play traveling to Auburn. The Bayou Bengals individual numbers don't look that impressive until you notice how many players are making contributions on offense. They are averaging 445 yards per game on offense, including 241 on the ground. The defense is a strength for this team. They've limited opponents from putting points on the board, but they only created one turnover against lesser teams Appalachian State and North Texas. LSU will be without defensive cornerstone LB Darry Beckwith after he suffered a knee injury last week. The Bayou Bengals have also committed 14 penalties in their two contests in 2008.

    Auburn is coming off one of the lowest scoring games in the history of college football, a 3-2 win against Mississippi State last Saturday. The Tigers have only given up 15 points in their three games this season; two coming from last week's safety and seven from a Southern Mississippi touchdown following an Auburn turnover. That leaves six points that can be placed on the defense's shoulder through tree games. They are allowing only 53 rushing yards per game to opponents. Auburn is still adjusting to the spread offense implemented during the off-season, and it showed during last week's sloppy performance against the Bulldogs. The Tigers feature a pair of talented running backs in Ben Tate and Brad Lester.

    Early action from the public loves defending champ LSU, who are receiving 84% of bets. The line has moved from an opening of LSU -1.5 to -2.5 at Pinnacle. Their combination of offense and defense makes them attractive against what looks like a one-sided Auburn team. Well, here at the Marketwatch, we like going against the public and this game has some history on that side. The home team has won this matchup eight consecutive times, and 11 of the previous 18 games have been decided by a touchdown or less, including the last four. We're thinking this one will be nail-biter, so we're taking the home team with the points.

    Auburn +3

    Florida vs Tennessee (9/20 3:30P)

    Florida came into the season as a championship contender, and the Gators have done nothing to show otherwise so far in 2008. Led by returning Heisman winner Tim Tebow, Florida has stormed out of the gate scoring 82 points in its first two games, while allowing only 13 points to Hawaii and Miami (FL). They come off a bye week, giving them extra time before opening SEC play on the road. This is a team in the spotlight, and they tend to put up lots of points, which draws the public's interest.

    Tennessee bounced back from the UCLA upset with a 35-3 win over Alabama-Birmingham last week. The Volunteers put up 548 yards of total offense, including 266 on the ground. Stud running back Adrian Foster only ran the ball 12 times for 100 yards against the Blazers, a sign of good health for the Tennessee running game overall. Quarterback Jonathan Crompton also looked more comfortable against the UAB than he did in the season opener, completing 19 of 31 pass attempts for 240 yards. The Volunteers defense also made three interceptions last week to give them seven through two games.

    Tennessee's Phillip Fulmer hasn't beaten Florida since Urban Meyer took over in Gainseville, and many people think this is a make-or-break season for Fulmer. He gets the No. 4 Gators at home as a chance to make a statement. Florida's flash has the public backing them with 80% of bets, but the line has jumped back-and-forth from Florida -7.5 and -7 since opening at Pinnacle. We'll go against the public and take the home team getting 7.5 points.

    Tennessee +7.5

    So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.

    Games to Watch (6-3)

    Mississippi –6.5

    Auburn +3

    Tennessee +7.5

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 20, 2008 3:17am
17. sportsinsights

    NFL Week 3 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

    Cincinnati Bengals +13.5 over New York Giants

    If people didn't believe in the Superbowl Champion New York Giants, they certainly do now! The Giants are now 2-0 and lead the NFL in "net points" or "points for" minus "points against" with a +37. The Giants are collecting about two-thirds of the bets -- even with a large line of Giants -13.5.

    In this game, we want to "bet against the public" and "sell" the Giants after last week’s dominating performance. We'd note that the Giants beat up on St. Louis, currently the league's doormat (0-2, -63 "net points," worst in the league by a wide margin). At the same time, we want to "buy" an underperforming Cincy team. The Bengals finished last season just below .500 (with a 7-9 record) and scored about as many point as they gave up. On the other hand, the Giants scored just slightly more points than they gave up in the 2007 regular season.

    We don't think the Giants have improved so much that they command such a large line -- even at home. The point spread is growing as we speak. With the public jumping on the Giant bandwagon, the line is steadily increasing and should hit Cincy +14 or +14.5 at game time. Skybook reports heavy Smart Money coming in Cincy. We'll take the points.

    Cincinnati Bengals +13.5

    Minnesota Vikings -3 over Carolina Panthers

    This game will be one of the most "lopsided-bet" games of the weekend. The Public can’t believe Carolina is getting +3.5 and they are betting it like they know the score. A glance at the standings shows Carolina 2-0 and Minnesota 0-2. Thus, the casual betting public is thinking that they will grab Carolina and the points and take the seemingly better team. The Public may also be factoring in Viking RB Adrian Peterson's sore hamstring too much. It's looking like he will be playing on Sunday.

    If we take a closer look at the standings, we see that Carolina's two wins AND Minny's two losses were ALL close games. Both of these teams have scored almost the same number of points that they have given up (even with 2-0 and 0-2 records!). In 2007, the Vikings were just below the league's elite, with "net points" (PF minus PA) of +54 while the Panthers were mediocre at best at -80.

    Minnesota opened at -3 but Sharps have pounded the number off of the "key 3" to -3.5. We'll join the Sharps and take the better team from last year (discounting this season's early win-loss records). Grab the -3 that is still available at SIA.

    Minnesota Vikings -3

    Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 over Indianapolis Colts

    This should be a great game between two of the NFL's elite squads. The teams' combined 1-3 record (Indy is 1-1; Jax is 0-2) in this young season will make this a hotly contested game. The Public still loves the Indianapolis Colts but it looks like Indy has lost a step. Although the Jaguars have started the season off slowly, they have lost their two games by a combined 11 points.

    SportsInsights' sports marketplace stats verify that "smart money" is on Jacksonville. With the majority of bets on Indy, the line actually moved from the opener of Indy -6 down to Indy -5. The big, smart money is more than countering the Public's bets on Indy. We'll join the smart money and take Jax in what should be a great game. Grab the 5.5 points that is still available at some books.

    Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

    So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsightsanalysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

    Games to Watch (3-3)

    Cincinnati Bengals +13.5

    Minnesota Vikings -

    Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 20, 2008 3:18am
18. ACE ACE 1 (6* 1-1) (10-4) VANDERBILT -- navy, tex am

    A PLAY 2 (VIP 3-2) VIP MINNESOTA OVER --- HEAVY HITTER ARKANSAS --- PRIVATE PLAY AUBURN

    ATS 2 (15* 1-0) (3-3) (9-8) 7 NC STATE - 6 auburn, pitt, new mexico, indiana, rutgers

    BEN BURNS 1 (3-3) (9-9) SEC GOY AUBURN --- PITTSBURGH, FLA ATLANTIC

    BIG AL (1-1) (3* 6-2)

    BILL BAILEY (100* 1-2) (3-5)

    BANKER 2 (500* 0-1) (400* 3-3) (3-6) 400 GEORGIA TECH

    BLAZER (4* 0-1) (3* 6-3)

    BOB BALFE 2 (12-7) colo state, navy, wake forest, tennessee

    BRANDON LANG (20* 4-0) (6-8)

    CAJUN SPORTS 2 (5* 2-1) (4* 2-3) (7-8) 5 TOLEDO - 4 NOTRE DAME - balls tate, wake forest, arkansas, auburn

    CAPPERS ACCESS (14-6)

    CASH 2 (2-0) (5-4) (10-8) AUBURN - toledo, alabama, central florida, arizona

    CHARLIE SPORTS 2 (500* 3-6) (13-5) 500 OHIO - penn state, akron, alabama, iowa, ohio state

    COACHES CORNER 1 (12-6) DOG OF MONTH UCLA -- ohio, auburn, so miss, central florida

    COWTOWN (2* 0-2) (8-7)

    COMPUTER KIDS 1 (1-0) (10-4) boise under, notre dame over, utah state under, unlv under

    DAVE COKIN 1 (11-12) (6-6) SEC GOY ARKANSAS --- TOLEDO

    DAVE ******** 2 (6* 0-2) (4* 10-6) 4 boston college

    DIAMOND STAR 2 (3* 1-1) (2* 7-6) 2 central florida

    DIRECTOR 2 (4-2) (8-5) AKRON, UTAH, EAST CAROLINA, penn state, ul lafayette

    DOC ENTERPRISES 1 (5* 1-1) (11-4) 7* GOY NORTH CAROLINA - 5 UTAH, - 4 mississippi, auburn, fla atlantic, unlv - 3 houston

    DOCTOR BOB 1 (3* 1-0) (2* 1-1) 2 iowa, kent -- OPINIONS arizona, florida state, san jose, iowa state

    DOLPHIN (3* 7-13)

    EVAN ALTEMUS 1 (1-2) (12-9) (4-4) ACC GOY NORTH CAROLINA --- TOLEDO, PITT UNDER, FLORIDA -- michigan state, troy, stanford, wake forest, arizona state, auburn

    EXECUTIVE (300% 1-3) (4-3)

    EXPERT 1 (0-1) (4-3) (2-2) UCLA, SAN JOSE STATE

    FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (5-2) (4-4) EAST CAROLINA

    FINAL SCORE 2 (1-4) (6-4) CENTRAL FLORIDA

    GAME DAY 2 (10-5) 4 MICHIGAN STATE - 3 auburn, pitt, 2 arkansas, central michigan, arizona state

    GARDEN STATE SPORTS (5* 2-0) (7-1)

    GOLD SHEET 2 (0-1) (1-2) (7-4) SUPER POWER 7 SAN JOSE STATE

    GREG PRICE 1 (3-6) (3-2) GAME OF WEEK UCLA - TEMPLE -- mississippi, nc state, auburn

    INSIDERS EDGE (40* 2-2) (8-3)

    INSIDE STEAM (2-0) (2-10)

    INSIDE INFO 2 (2* 0-2) (6-7) georgia tech

    JB SPORTS 1 (2-9) (2-3) minnesota, michigan state, rutgers

    JEFFERSON SPORTS 1 (7-5) utah

    JIM FEIST 1 (1-1) (13-2) (8-6) BLOWOUT GAME OF WEEK MICHIGAN STATE

    KELSO STURGEON 2 (100* 1-0) (50* 1-0) (15* 1-0) (7-7) 50 ARIZONA - 10CENTRAL FLORIDA - florida, michigan state, georgia

    KEVIN ONEILL (4-1)

    LARRY NESS 1 (2-2) (5-8) 20* MISSISSIPPI

    LT PROFITS 1 (3* 0-1) (2* 11-3) 2 san jose, idaho, toledo

    LV INSIDERS 2 (500* 2-1) (1-1) (5-8) 400 NORTHWESTERN

    LV LOCKLINE (50* 2-0) (7-5)

    LV SPORTS (8-6)

    LENNY STEVENS 2 (20* 3-0) (5-6) 20* UNDERDOG GAME OF MONTH BALL STATE - 10 mississippi, utah, georgia

    MAXWELL (1-2) (7-5)

    MIKE NERI (4* 4-0) (9-4)

    MILLIONAIRES CLUB (1-0) (3-0) (1-4)

    NORM HITZGES 1 (3* 2-0) (2* 7-6) (1* 5-6) 2 UTAH, GEORGIA, HOUSTON - 1 minnesota, mississippi, rutgers, boston college, miami florida, utep, arizona

    NORTHCOAST PHONES (5* 0-1) (4* 2-0) (4* 6-1) (6-2)

    NORTHCOAST CLUB GAMES 1 (0-1) (6-7) EARLY BIRD GAME OF WEEK Byu --- POWER PLAYS GAME OF WEEK North Carolina --- ECONOMY CLUB Rutgers --- BIG DOG PLAY OF WEEK New Mexico --- PAC 10 PLAY OF WEEK Ucla

    NORTHCOAST TOTALS 2 (4* 0-1) (6-2) 3 south florida under, minnesota over - 2 iowa under, texas am under

    NORTHCOAST SMALL COLL 2 (4* 1-1) (2-6) 2 missouri, fla atlantic

    NY SPORTS (10* 2-0) (9* 1-0) (6-7)

    POINTWISE (4* 2-2) (6-8)

    POINTSPREAD MAVEN (20* 1-1) (6-7)

    POWER PLAYS 1 (11-8) MICHIGAN STATE, TOLEDO, TROY

    PLATINUM (14-9)

    PREFERRED PICKS 2 (4* 2-1) (3-3) 5* GAME OF MONTH AUBURN

    PRIMETIME (2-1) (2-6)

    PRIVATE INVESTORS (1-0) (10-8)

    PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 2 (4* 8-0) (3* 9-14) 5 PURDUE

    PURE LOCK (5* 1-2)

    RAIDER 2 (9-4) san jose, ucla, arizona state

    REED HARRIS (0-1) (12-6)

    RIGHT ANGLE 1 (1-2) 2* IDAHO UNDER - 1* utah, new mexico, unlv over, utep over

    ROSENTHAL 2 (32-15) penn state, auburn, michigan state and under, north carolina, army, air force, tex am, rice, florida and under, georgia, arizona, troy state

    SEBASTIAN 2 (8-3) (100* 2-0) (14-14) 300 AKRON, TOLEDO - utah, tennessee, northwestern, auburn, michigan state, miss state under, new mex state over, idaho under -

    SCORE (500% 1-0) (400% 2-0) (5-4)

    SCOTT SPREITZER 1 (2-0) (11-6) (4-5) CONFERENCE GOY UTAH --- TKO BAILOUT SHOCKER OF THE MONTH SAN JOSE STATE --

    SILVER STAR (10* 1-0) (9* 0-1) (3-6)

    SLAM DUNK 1 (7-4) ucla, houston, miami ohio

    ED SLICK (2* 1-1) (9-8)

    SOLID GOLD PICK 2 (1-2) (4-2) SAN JOSE STATE

    SPORTS ANALYST (1-0) (1-0) (5-3)

    SPORTS AUTHORITY (3-0) (2-0) (5* 6-3)

    SPORTS BANK (500* 1-1) (400* 1-1) (2-4)

    SPORTS DOCTOR (2-1) (3-5)

    SPORTS INVESTORS (10* 1-2) (6-5)

    SPORTS NETWORK 1 (4-5) (22-12) BOISE STATE, MIAMI OHIO -- FAU, HOUSTON, VIRGINIA TECH, IDAHO, FRESNO, SAN JOSE -- ohio state, pitt, alabama, missouri, tulane, navy, florida, utah, wake forest, ball state, tulsa, unlv

    SPORT TRENDS (0-1) (1-0) (19-9)

    SPORTS UNLIMITED (10* 0-2) (5-5)

    STATISTICIAN (100* 0-1) (1-1) (0-1)

    SUPER LOCK 1 (3-4) MISSOURI

    SUPER SYSTEMS 1 (3-1) (2-2) TROY, FLORIDA STATE

    SWAMI 1 (5-3) san jose state, east carolina

    TOUCHDOWN CLUB (10* 2-0) (9* 0-1) (7-5)

    THE COACH (3* 1-1) (2-6) (1-5)

    THE INSIDER (1-0) (4-2) (3-3)

    THE SPORTS GURU (40* 1-2) (7-6)

    TIPPS 1 (0-1) (0-1) (10-6) central florida, alabama, east carolina, mississippi, toledo

    TOMMY THUNDER 2 (10* 2-0) (9* 0-1) (3-6) central michigan

    TONY WRIGHT (1-0) (7-1)

    TOP DAWG 1 (12-5) tennessee, ball state, notre dame, air force, virginia tech, boise state

    TRU-LINE 1 (2-0) (7-3) auburn, michigan state, arizona state, tennessee

    UNDERDOG (3-0)

    UNIVERSAL (1-2) (13-6)

    USA SPORTS (3-0) (10-8)

    VEGAS CONNECTION (3* 1-2) (2* 5-7) (0-1)

    VEGAS PIPELINE (4-6) (1-5)

    WAYNE ROOT 2 (1-0) (3-6) (11-3) PERFECT PLAY TOLEDO --- INNER CIRCLE AUBURN --- BILLIONAIRE MISSISSIPPI --- NO LIMIT PAC 10 GOY ARIZONA STATE --- MILLIONAIRE smu --- CHAIRMAN GAME OF YEAR Tennessee

    WILDCAT (3-0) (2-2) (1-0)

    WINDY CITY 2 (10* 0-2) (9* 1-0) (4-7) 10 EAST CAROLINA

    WINNERS EDGE 2 (4* 0-1) (3* 0-1) (7-6) 3 IOWA STATE - 2 army, rice, florida

    WINNERS PATH 2 (0-1) (1-1) (4-2) iowa, utah, lsu under, iowa state

    WISE GUYS (3* 1-2) (5-7) (0-1)

    WIZARD (2-2) (7-5)

    ADDITIONAL ***

    TEDDY COVERS 1 (20* 1-0) (10* 0-2) (5-5) 6 oregon - 5 ohio over - 3 boston college, arizona, so miss, miami florida, toledo

    SMART MONEY (3-1)

    ALEX SMART 1 (4* 0-2) (7-7) 4 AUBURN - 3 kent, east michigan, north carolina

    FAIRWAY JAY 1 5* MICHIGAN STATE - 4 FAU OVER, ARIZONA, UTAH, MISSISSIPPI

    ROCKETMAN 1 5* EAST CAROLINA - 2 miss state

    BOB AKMENS 1 8* EAST CAROLINA - 5 cincinnati, middle tennessee, ohio, san jose state, wake forest

    SPORTS INSIGHT 1 mississippi, auburn, tennessee

    RON RAYMOND 1 5* WYOMING OVER, WAKE FOREST, SAN JOSE STATE

    M O'SHEA 1 TOTAL OF MONTH UNLV UNDER

    GLENN McGREW 1 UNDERDOG GAME OF MONTH TOLEDO

    EZ WINNERS 1 5* PENN STATE, TOLEDO - 3* north carolina, wake forest - 2rutgers

    GREG SHAKER 1 3* GAME OF MONTH MISS STATE - 2 NAVY OVER, IDAHO UNDER

    MIKE ROSE 1 5* MINNESOTA OVER - 3 ball state, lsu under, mississippi

    TOM STRYKER 1 HIGH NOON PAYDAY GEORGIA TECH

    STEAM ON LINE 1 NON CONFERENCE GAME OF YEAR MICHIGAN STATE

    ASA 1 6* MICHIGAN STATE - 3* byu, tennessee, arizona state, toledo

    ETHAN LAW 1 3* WYOMING - 2% air force, florida state, pittsburgh, virginia tech, tennessee, miss state over

    SPECIAL K 2 SUPER K 20* PITTSBURGH

    IRON HORSE 2 GAME OF YEAR TENNESSEE

    VIP 2 1000* TEXAS AM - 500 IDAHO - wake forest, maryland

    ROOT UPSET CLUB 2 tennessee, auburn, arizona state

    SAVANNAH 2 3 toledo

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 20, 2008 5:00pm
19. 9/20/2008

    DIRECT FROM NEVADA

    WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

    WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK'S NFL GAMES

    Great to see you back for our weekly look at what Nevada sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this weekend's NFL games. This has become a very popular feature, and I appreciate all of you taking time out of your weekend to come visit the website so you can learn more about how to think and bet like a sharp.

    There are some common themes in this week's games. We have several spots with a 3-point favorite...where books are trying as hard as they can NOT to shift off the field goal. That's such a common number that they'll get flooded with money the other way even with just a half point move. Should they make that move, and the game lands exactly on three...well then half the bettors win, and the other half pushes. For the books...BIG LOSS!

    We're also seeing a few 9-point favorites out there. I've talked a lot about how sportsbooks are trying to stay away from 8 and 8.5 point favorites because of basic strategy teasers that focus on those games. Books are trying to discourage teaser action, either by lifting the vigorish on the option (common in Vegas), or keeping number out of the range (more common offshore).

    Some interesting things are happening in those games, and on the rest of the card. So, let's get started. Comments are presented in rotation order for your convenience.

    KANSAS CITY AT ATLANTA: Not much happening of interest here unfortunately. Atlanta is a 5.5 point favorite, and the total has been locked in at 36.5 for awhile now (after opening at 36). The announcement that Tyler Thigpen would get the start did nothing to the line, because the sharps think all the KC quarterbacks are about equally horrible. There's just no interest in this game right now. I know some old school sharps who automatically go against any bad team that's a favorite just on principal. That approach tends to wait until the last possible second on the hopes that the public will drive the favorite higher. I do expect some old school money to hit the dog on game day. It certainly won't be a tidal wave though. Key numbers aren't involved. This is a game most guys have no interest in.

    OAKLAND AT BUFFALO: We come to our first game sitting on the number 9. Buffalo opened at 9 and 37. I'm now seeing 9 and 36.5. It will take a lot of money to move off the number 9 even though it's not a critical number. Sportsbooks just don't want to have to deal with Bills -2.5 of -2 in teasers, so it's not coming down even if a lot of Raiders money comes in. The books would rather be one-sided on Buffalo -9 rather than Oakland +2.5! Sure, the other part of the teaser has to hit too. Some many of those have been winning that the books prefer not to take the risk. A little tick to the Under because Buffalo tends toward lower scoring games. If anything happens with the weather, it will come down more than that.

    HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: Some Houston money came in early on the Texans +6. I'm seeing mostly +4.5 now as I write this. The total has gone up from 37.5 to 38.5 and 39. Interesting moves. I'm hearing that the sharps just don't trust Tennessee as a favorite. They like them as a dog, or maybe a cheap favorite (as they were in Cincinnati last week). Once the lines get higher, it's harder for them to get there consistently. I like some of the reasons for the total going up. Kerry Collins is a better quarterback than Vince Young...and the team won't be playing in 50-mph winds this week! Some totals guys I respect pointed that out. They think they got a sleeper at Over 37.5. Houston had a forced bye last week because of the hurricane. Hard to know how that will effect them. I was a little surprised there was so much fondness for Houston given that situation.

    CINCINNATI AT NY GIANTS: It's amazing how much this line has changed from where it would have been earlier in the season. The Giants were seen by the sharps as a 9-7 or 10-6 type team (many of whom still think last year was a fluke). Cincinnati was supposed to have a shot at the Wildcard if they could get healthy. The Giants would have been favored by more than a field goal, but less than a touchdown if the game was played in mid August or so. Perceptions have changed so much that the line is now -13. Higher in places. Is that the right number? Old school guys are going to take the dog because they take every double digit dog. They're hoping to see +14 on game day. Some of the younger guys remember how well big favorites did early last season. They're less likely to get involved either way. I've seen Over money come in at 41 and 41.5. If the weather's nice, it may go higher on game day.

    ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON: We come to the first our field goal games. Washington opened at -3. They're now -3 with -120 vigorish, or -125 in some places. That means the sharps like Washington as a percentage play. But, if the line moved to -3.5, a whole lot of other guys would come in on Arizona with the hook. And, some of the early money might buy back anyway because three is such a common number. You might not think that's a great strategy because there's no"middle to shoot at." Well, three's are so common that you can make it work, particularly if you had favorable vigorish. Sharps know how to find that. I would be surprised if the line moves off a field goal. It would take a lot of public money over the weekend to cause that. The total's stayed steady at 42.

    MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND: New England joins the NY Giants as the only current double digit favorites. Funny that those were the Super Bowl teams. The line opened at -13, and is now 12.5. I'm hearing mostly Miami votes from the sharps. Some bet right away figuring +13 would be the best they'd see. Others are waiting until game day hoping the line will go up higher. Tough to see the public loading up on New England given that the Patriots haven't even scored 20 points in a game yet. Hard to cover a -13 like that. But, Miami did look awful last week, so it's possible. I don't know of any sharps who like New England at this price. I'm hearing Miami or pass. Nothing happening on the total yet, as it sits at 35.5

    TAMPA BAY AT CHICAGO: Chicago opened at -3.5, but came right down to -3. I'm even seeing low vigorish now at the field goal (even money if you lay the -3). The sharps don't see this Bears team as a good favorite. Early actors were very happy to get the hook. I don't expect this line to come off the field goal. If the public doesn't come in strong on the Bears, the sportsbooks will be rooting for Chicago on game day. I should mention here that sportsbooks don't like dropping a 3 down to 2.5 because that 2.5 moves into the basic strategy teaser window I've been telling you about this year and last. The sharps already like Tampa Bay +3. They'd load up quick on teasers where they could move Tampa Bay to +8.5 and cross both the 3 and the 7. The totals sitting at 35 or 35.5. A lot of low numbers this week on the Over/Unders. If the weather is nice everywhere, you may see some game day Over money come in from the totals guys.

    CAROLINA AT MINNESOTA: Minnesota in one of those field goal games, but the Vikings are getting hit so hard that the books might have to move the line up to 3.5 anyway. I've seen some 3.5's out there. Laying -3 will cost you anywhere from -120 to -135 depending on the place. There was a generally favorable reaction to the benching of Tavaris Jackson in favor of Gus Frerotte. Why? Because the sharps were all over Minnesota the first two weeks and went 0-2! They just missed both spreads, and spent a lot of time yelling at the quarterback or the play calling in those games. I'm interested to see what happens here. I know some guys who like Carolina hoping to get +3.5 or +4. They know Steve Smith is coming back after a suspension. Might be split money amongst the sharps if the line ever settles in on game day.

    ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE: The sharps made a killing on this field last week, as they bet San Francisco +9, +8.5, +8, +7.5, all the way down to a touchdown. San Francisco won that game outright. You know it had to be a lot of money coming in to fly through that teaser window. Ultimately any Seattle teasers lost anyway...the only basic strategy team not to get there last weekend. There's a lot less enthusiasm for St. Louis, who has looked absolutely horrible so far. Seattle has a ton of injuries though. I wouldn't be shocked to see a game day move on the dog again. The San Francisco move happened late last week. The total has come down half a point from the opener. There's just not much happening yet with the Over/Unders this week. I won't mention them again unless there's a move of a point or more to mention.

    DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO: San Francisco opened as a 5-point favorite. Detroit money has come in pretty heavily, so we're seeing 4 or 3.5 as I write this. It's not that everyone thinks the Lions are great. They've been stunned at how bad the defense has looked. But, they don't trust the 49ers as a favorite of this size...particularly with an inexperienced quarterback. Also, the Niners are coming off a divisional win, which might set up a letdown spot. I don't think the line will go all the way down to a field goal. If it does some middle players would step in on SF. For now, Detroit is the sharp side here. And, critical numbers aren't yet involved, so it's a game others could follow along with if they were so inclined.

    NEW ORLEANS AT DENVER: Here's another game with a move over non-critical numbers. But, it's moving in the other direction. Denver opened at -4 in this spot, and is now up to -5 or -5.5 as I look at the board. The sharps like what they see from the Denver offense this year...and they know that the New Orleans defense is pretty bad. That, and what may be a lingering bias for the AFC in interconference matchups has led to some love for the favorite. Remember that sharps are typically dog players, so this is a serious vote for the Broncos at the lower numbers. Some are talking about the AFC falling back to earth this year, creating more parity between the conferences. Well, that's true...because INJURIES have hurt the traditional powers. Denver isn't injured. New Orleans wasn't an NFC playoff team last year. Might be some thought about the altitude edge in play here too. New Orleans is playing its second straight road game.

    PITTSBURGH AT PHILADELPHIA: Another field goal game. The money is coming in on the favorite here as well. So, you have to lay heavy juice to play the Eagles at -3. I'm seeing a 3.5 now. This is similar to the Minnesota game in that the money may be so one-sided that the books have to move off the field goal and risk getting sided. A rock and a hard place from their perspective. This move goes against the AFC/NFC theory of the prior game. I'm hearing that some guys who focus on injuries think Ben Roethlisberger is in worse shape than he's letting on. Donovan McNabb has looked great so far too. Guys I respect are quietly suggesting that the Eagles may be in the top two of the NFC right now alongside Dallas. We'll know more about that after watching this game.

    JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts opened at -6. Jacksonville got bet early, bringing the line all the way down to +5 and +4.5. If the Jaguars had done anything in the first two weeks, I think they would have been hit hard even at +3. Indianapolis hasn't looked good at all, except for the fourth quarter at Minnesota. But, Jacksonville doesn't even have a good quarter in the books! The Jaguars are 0-2, and have as many injury issues as the Colts do. The sharps see the points as a value play given two injury-riddled teams trying to work things out. It's not an enthusiastic play though because the sharps have all been watching the Jags flounder on TV.

    CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE: We have a total that moved a point, so let me talk about that first. This one opened at 39.5, and has come down to 38.5. Sharps definitely want to play Unders in Baltimore games given their quality defense and rookie quarterback. Also, Cleveland's biggest weakness is seen as its secondary, which won't be as big a problem against a rookie quarterback. Baltimore opened -1 on the team side. I'm currently seeing -2 as an average of what's out there. That puts Cleveland in the teaser window. Not many options out there to stick in a teaser with Cleveland! This is why I talked about teasers again in my Wednesday article a few days ago. Fear of teasers is playing a big role in shaping what the lines look like this week.

    DALLAS AT GREEN BAY: Another field goal game. Though, this time it's a road favorite. That's the first time we've seen that this week. All the other field goal teams are hosts. The sharps will go against the public here if there's a move in either direction. Normally the public bets the favorite...and bets Dallas. So, the most likely scenario is that the sharps come in on Green Bay at favorable rates late Sunday. If the sharps liked Dallas, they would have acted already. We expect a big handle in the sportsbooks on this huge Sunday Night matchup. Everyone's looking forward to it, and they'll have all day to bet.

    NY JETS AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego opened at -7.5, and jumped right through the teaser window up to -9. You're going to see a lot of that this year. It's like 8-point or 8.5-poinit favorites have gone extinct! The Jets haven't exactly impressed yet this year. But, the public does like Brett Favre. I'm interested to see what the public finally decides about this one on Monday. They normally like laying points with San Diego at home because the Chargers win a lot of blowouts. But, Favre plus this many points will be hard for them to pass up. The sharps are going to play it by ear. They're more likely to take the points than to lay them...and are hoping the line might inch up a little higher by kickoff.

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 21, 2008 4:54am
20. Tips and Trends

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    Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings

    Panthers: The Panthers are 2-0 after two tough wins over San Diego and Chicago and now they get star receiver Steve Smith back this week. Smith was suspended two games after punching teammate Ken Lucas but the two say they have made amends and are ready to move on. Smith will join Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett to give Carolina a formidable trio of receivers. The Panthers will present a stiff challenge for young quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. In the first two weeks, Carolina?s defense is only giving up 176 yards per game through the air.

    Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

    The OVER is 4-0 in Carolina's last 4 road games.

    Key Injuries - OT Travelle Wharton (knee) is day-to-day.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 17

    Vikings (-3.5, O/U 37): The Vikings came into the season with Super Bowl aspirations but are a disappointing 0-2, losing two games they could have easily won. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson shouldered much of the blame for Minnesota's slow start, and head coach Brad Childress has made the switch to veteran Gus Frerotte for Sunday?s game. Childress is hoping Frerotte will be able to help generate more big plays out of the passing game. This is a pivotal game for the Vikings, who don?t want to start out 0-3. As always, they have been extremely tough to run the ball on, holding the opposition to 82 yards per game on the ground.

    Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

    Vikings are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.

    Key Injuries - WR Sidney Rice (knee) is day-to-day.

    OT Bryant McKinnie (suspension) is OUT.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 20

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

    Steelers: The Steelers have jumped out 2-0 to start the season and with some of the conferences preseason favorites floundering, Pittsburgh is setting itself up nicely to be a major factor in the AFC. After dismantling Houston in their opener, the Steelers are coming off a hard-fought win over bitter rival Cleveland. Last week NBC reported that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had a separated shoulder but the Steelers referred to the report as ?nonsense.? ?They know more than I do,? Coach Mike Tomlin said. ?That?s good television, I guess.? As usual, defense is the name of the game in Pittsburgh. Through two weeks, the Steelers defense has allowed just 11.5 points and 221.0 yards per game.

    Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

    The OVER is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games overall.

    Key Injuries - CB Deshea Townsend (heel) is day-to-day.

    DE Brett Keisel (calf) is OUT.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

    Eagles (-3, O/U 46): The Eagles have to recharge the batteries after a gut-wrenching 41-37 emotional loss at Dallas last Monday night. The game had a playoff feel to it but now the Eagles have to refocus and prepare to take on a tough Steelers squad. Donovan McNabb has been on fire to start the year, throwing for 642 yards and four touchdowns in the season?s first two weeks. After stifling the lowly Rams, the Eagles defense was torched by the Cowboys to the tune of 41 points and 380 yards of total offense. There is a new star emerging in the city of Brotherly Love. Rookie receiver DeSean Jackson is becoming McNabb?s go-to receiver and he?s an exceptional return man as well. Jackson just needs to make sure he holds onto the football until he crosses the goal line, something he didn?t do against Dallas.

    Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

    Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 3.

    Key Injuries - WR Reggie Brown (hamstring) is questionable.

    OT Shawn Andrews (back) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 23

    Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

    Cowboys (-3, O/U 51.5): After defeating bitter rival Philadelphia in one of the most thrilling Monday night games ever, the Cowboys must now take to the road to face the 2-0 Packers. This will be a tall order for the Cowboys, who have never won a game at Lambeau Field in the franchise?s illustrious history. Led by Tony Romo, Marion Barber and Terrell Owens, the Cowboys offense has been a well-oiled machine in the first two weeks of the season, averaging 34.5 points and 433.5 yards per game. The defense struggled badly against the Eagles. If there was one bright spot it was that after allowing 30 points in the first half, the Cowboys held Philly to just one touchdown in the final two quarters.

    Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

    The OVER is 7-0 in Dallas' last 7 games in Week 3.

    Key Injuries - S Roy Williams (forearm) is OUT.

    TE Jason Witten (shoulder) is probable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 30 (Side Play of the Day)

    Packers: Fans in Green Bay have to be ecstatic with the performance of quarterback Aaron Rodgers thus far. Rodgers has thrown for 506 yards and four scores in leading the Pack to wins over division foes Minnesota and Detroit. Rodgers may need another big game through the air because running back Ryan Grant hasn?t been 100 percent healthy in the first two games. Grant continues to be bothered by a sore hamstring, which kept him out most of the preseason. His workload was scaled back in the first two games, and he wasn?t able to finish either of them. The Packers secondary allowed some big plays last week against Detroit and that area will need to be tightened up with the high-flying Cowboys offense coming to town.

    Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

    The OVER is 6-0 in Green Bay's last 6 home games.

    Key Injuries - S Atari Bigby (hamstring) is day-to-day.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 21

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 21, 2008 4:55am