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1. 0 likes

   Pointwise Newsletter 9/11-9/17

   1--Oregon over PURDUE 45-24

   1--MISSOURI over Nevada 56-20

   2--FRESNO STATE over Wisconsin 34-20

   3--SAN JOSE STATE over San Diego State 31-14

   4--CONNECTICUT over Virginia 31-7

   4--CLEMSON over n.c. state 45-10

   5--TCU over Stanford 44-14

   5--Air Force over HOUSTON 36-24

   NFL Key Plays

   2--JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo 30-16

   3--TAMPA BAY over Atlanta 26-13

   4--San Diego over DENVER 27-17

   4--Miami (+) over ARIZONA 19-20

   5--SEATTLE over San Francisco 31-13

   Last week "1" rated plays were 1-1, now 2-2 on the year

   All rated plays last week--College 5-3 (now 8-8 on year)

   NFL--3-2

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 9 2008 5:20pm
2. 0 likes

   Winning Points

   NFL:

   ****BEST BET

   Pittsburgh over *Cleveland by 24

   Are the Cleveland Browns ready for prime time? They sure didn’t look the

   part last Sunday. So has anything changed? No, not really.The Browns lack

   the edge rushers to bother Ben Roethlisberger, especially after losing linebacker

   Antwan Peek for the season.The Browns also are thin and weak in

   the secondary. The Steelers have a history of physically man-handling the

   Browns. They can do it again by running a now healthy Willie Parker, or

   attack through the air where Roethlisberger has many options, including

   Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and tight end Heath Miller. Pittsburgh has had

   Cleveland’s number, beating the Browns during the past nine meetings,

   covering eight times.The Browns need a successful ground game to keep

   the Steelers’ pass rush and assorted blitzes from teeing off on Derek

   Anderson. Pittsburgh, however, is one of the toughest clubs to run on.The

   Steelers ranked No. 3 last year. Their rush defense has been in the top-10

   each of the past four seasons.The Browns had one of the most feared passing

   attacks last year. It’s not in sync yet. A preseason injury to Braylon

   Edwards has messed up his timing with Anderson. Edwards had four drops

   against the Cowboys. No doubt Cleveland’s “Dawg Pound” will be packed

   for this Sunday night prime time matchup. It won’t matter, though, because

   the Browns aren’t ready.The pressure of lofty preseason expectations and

   being featured on prime time works against them.The Steelers hold mental

   and physical edges. The Browns need a high-scoring offense to hide

   their many defensive blemishes. Right now they don’t have it.There are not

   enough consistent producers behind Edwards and tight end Kellen

   Winslow Jr. with veteran Joe Jurevicius out.Anderson has a strong arm, but

   lacks accuracy and tends to go hot and cold.The Steelers are the more consistent

   and better all around team. PITTSBURGH 38-14.

   ***BEST BET

   Miami over *Arizona 8

   Even when they were so bad last season the Dolphins still lost by just a

   field goal six times. Now Miami has better coaching and front office personnel

   with proven winner Bill Parcells in charge.The Dolphins should be

   a very live ‘dog in this spot, especially coming off a home loss last Sunday

   to the Jets.Anytime you can get a rising AFC team taking a decent amount

   of points against a mediocre NFC club such as the Cardinals, it’s a sound

   investment. Miami’s defensive front is underrated. Its linebackers are active.

   Parcells and new head coach, tough guy Tony Sparano, have made the

   Dolphins stronger and more physical in the trenches.This should pay dividends

   against the finesse Cardinals whose strength is in their two outstanding

   wide receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.The Cardinals

   are a light-hitting, sloppy tackling team. Quarterback Kurt Warner is overthe-

   hill and so is their lead running back, Edgerrin James. Both players have

   a lot of mileage on them. Don’t be surprised if each is replaced in the starting

   lineup by mid-season.Warner still can move a team between the 20’s,

   but is prone to mistakes and has trouble putting up touchdowns in the Red

   Zone.This is the type of matchup where the Cardinals could put up the better

   statistics, but lose the war.The Dolphins can’t come close to matching

   Arizona’s two top wideouts. However, the Dolphins have a very heady, veteran

   quarterback, Chad Pennington, and two solid running backs. Ricky

   Williams and Ronnie Brown, who is nearly 100 percent healthy, are among

   the top running back tandems in the NFL.They can churn up yardage and

   maintain ball-control against a soft Cardinals defensive interior. This is

   Arizona’s only home game during the first four weeks. So the Cardinals may

   be pressing. They’ve dropped 18 of their last 26 home contests in

   September. MIAMI 24-16.

   **PREFERRED

   *CLOSE CALLS

   New Orleans over *Washington by 9

   Quiz time.What quarterback has passed for the most yards during the past

   two plus seasons? No, it’s not Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. If you said

   Drew Brees go to the head of the class. Unlike the Redskins, the Saints and

   their quarterback are in sync with their offensive system.Taking advantage

   of an improved Reggie Bush, Brees shredded Tampa Bay’s respected

   defense last week for 343 yards and three touchdowns. He can take advantage

   of Washington’s overrated secondary and banged-up defensive line.

   The Saints have improved their defense with the addition of rookie tackle

   Sedrick Ellis and linebacker Jonathan Vilma. Their secondary remains vulnerable.

   However, Jason Campbell isn’t fitting into new coach Jim Zorn’s

   version of a West Coast offense.The Redskins lack the rhythm and timing

   at this early stage to make the schemes work. Zorn already has come under

   fire for his inability to manage a game.The Redskins were out-gained by the

   Giants opening week, 354-209. Zorn is in above his head matching wits

   with astute offensive mind Sean Payton.To beat the Saints, you must keep

   their offense off the field and take advantage of their secondary. The

   Redskins can’t do either one at this stage. NEW ORLEANS 26-17.

   Buffalo over *Jacksonville by 4

   Effort, solid coaching and outstanding special teams play. Those are three

   things you can almost always count on when backing Buffalo. Special teams

   especially can’t be overlooked when handicapping Buffalo. Just ask Seattle

   coach Mike Holmgren. The Jaguars could only manage 33 yards rushing

   behind a beat-up offensive line against Tennessee last week. If the Jaguars

   can’t run, they are in big trouble because they don’t have the wideouts to

   scare secondaries.The Bills are off a big home win.They should come into

   this matchup in a strong frame of mind knowing Jacksonville destroyed

   them at this venue last year, 36-14. It’s a revenge spot.The key for Buffalo is

   offensive improvement.Trent Edwards is in his second season as a starter.

   He’s more confident with his downfield passing. Marshawn Lynch is developing

   into a top running back. The receiving corps is improved with the

   addition of second-round draft choice James Hardy. Expected to play for the

   first time this season is left tackle Jason Peters, the Bills’ best offensive lineman.

   He finally ended his holdout just days before the start of the regular

   season. The addition of Peters gives the Bills not only better pass protection,

   but bigger rushing holes for Lynch. BUFFALO 21-17.

   *Kansas City over Oakland by 6

   The Raiders won last year at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time in six

   years. Oakland had lost by a combined 11 points during its previous four

   visits to Kansas City. The Chiefs actually have a better chance of winning

   with backup quarterback Damon Huard replacing injured Brodie Croyle.

   Kansas City was 0-7 with Croyle as its starter.The Raiders are committed to

   a ground attack.They are deep at running back. Kansas City ranked 28th in

   rush defense last season.However, the situation is terrible for Oakland, traveling

   off a Monday night game and playing at an early start time coming

   from the West Coast. The Raiders’ passing attack remains a work in

   progress. KANSAS CITY 16-10.

   Tennessee over *Cincinnati by 3

   The Bengals’ offensive line didn’t look good during preseason. Carson

   Palmer then proceeded to possibly play his worst game ever opening

   week. Coincidence? Palmer certainly is capable of bouncing back in big

   fashion.The Titans are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 away contests.They have

   covered 15 of 22 times as a ‘dog during the Vince Young era, although

   Young (check status) suffered a knee injury last Sunday. His replacement,

   Kerry Collins, is a more accurate passer but lacks Young’s big-play ability

   and mobility.The Titans had the fifth-stingiest defense last year.They held

   Jacksonville to only 187 yards in capturing their opener.TENNESSEE 16-13.

   Indianapolis over *Minnesota by 1

   The Vikings are missing suspended star offensive left tackle Bryant

   McKinnie. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson’s strength is his mobility, but that’s

   limited by his wearing a knee brace. Minnesota also is on a short week after

   played on the road Monday night.The Colts, though, need to be careful. It’s

   nearly impossible to run on Minnesota. Peyton Manning didn’t practice

   until a week before the season. He could still be rusty. He also doesn’t have

   his trusted center, Jeff Saturday. Sack leader Jared Allen can make things

   round on any quarterback. The Colts opened their new stadium opening

   week and have a key AFC South showdown at home next week versus rival

   Jacksonville. INDIANAPOLIS 21-20.

   Green Bay over *Detroit by 4

   For the first time in 15 years, the Lions face the Packers not having to see

   Brett Favre.The Packers were 23-9 against Detroit with Favre under center.

   The Packers have won 11 of 16 road contests under Mike McCarthy, covering

   eight of their past 10 away contests.The Packers may be missing center

   Scott Wells (check status), a key to their offensive line. Detroit’s ground

   game could pick up as veteran Rudi Johnson gets more acclimated. Note to

   totals players.The Packers are 21-6 ‘over’ in their last 27 games on artificial

   turf. The Lions still aren’t tackling any better under Rod Marinelli. GREEN

   BAY 24-20.

   3

   NFL (CONTINUED)

   *Carolina over Chicago by 1

   The Bears have too much inexperience on offense and their offensive line

   is in transition. That keeps us from calling for an outright road upset.Yet

   this should be a very tight game, featuring plenty of running and short passes.

   The Panthers have little speed at the flanks with star wide receiver Steve

   Smith still under team suspension. He’ll return next week. The Bears

   defense still remains very respectable when healthy.The Panthers are much

   better taking points than being the favorite. They also haven’t been very

   profitable at home, going 5-12-1 in their last 18 at Bank of America Stadium.

   CAROLINA 17-16.

   New York Giants over *St. Louis by 11

   The Rams have bigger problems than their one-dimensional offense with

   declining skill position players and weak offensive line. Their defense

   remains horrific, surrendering 522 yards to the Eagles last week. St. Louis is

   just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home contests, while the Giants have won 11

   straight road matchups.The Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 away games.

   Osi Umenyiora is out for the season and Michael Strahan is in the announcing

   booth.Yet the Giants still maintain a fierce pass rush thanks to rising

   star Justin Tuck and aggressive blitzing schemes by defensive coordinator

   Steve Spagnuolo. NY GIANTS 28-17.

   *Tampa Bay over Atlanta by 14

   Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner both had

   outstanding debuts for Atlanta last week.Keep in mind that was at home on

   carpet against a porous Lions defense.Now, though, the Falcons take to the

   road to face a Buccaneers defense that almost always ends the season

   ranked in the top 10. Long-time Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Monte

   Kiffin is going to have a few tricks up his sleeve for Ryan, who will be making

   his first NFL road start. Expect Kiffin to mix in a few blitz packages.The

   Buccaneers swept the Falcons last season, winning by a combined margin

   of 68-10.TAMPA BAY 24-10.

   *Seattle over San Francisco by 6

   The 49ers’ defense plays softer on the road and their offense remains a

   work in progress under new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Yet the

   Seahawks are no bargain right now with a beat-up offensive line and a cluster

   injury problem at wide receiver with Bobby Engram out and possibly

   no Deion Branch and Nate Burleson. Those are their three best wide

   receivers. What Seattle mainly has going is a solid defense and one of the

   strongest home-field advantages. The Seahawks are 43-14 at home since

   2001, the second-best home mark in the NFL during this span. It’s the first

   road start for San Francisco’s six-year career journeyman quarterback J.T.

   O’Sullivan. SEATTLE 16-10.

   *New York Jets over New England by 3

   Tom Brady is 12-2 versus the Jets.The bad news is Brady could be finished

   for the season after suffering an injury to his left knee. Untested Matt Cassel

   looked OK filling in for Brady last week.Things would be much more difficult

   in this spot for Cassel, though, being on the road. Jets coach Eric

   Mangini coached under Patriots head man Bill Belichick for six years.The

   Jets will know all about Cassel. Even with Brady, the Patriots had failed to

   cover in nine of their last 10 games. On the flip side, Brett Favre is still

   learning his new teammates.The Jets could be without kicker Mike Nugent,

   who suffered a thigh injury. NY JETS 23-20.

   *Houston over Baltimore by 7

   Expect a bounce back from Houston playing at home. But until the Texans

   get some semblance of a ground attack, it’s hard to back them with a lot of

   confidence. The Texans rushed for just 75 yards against Pittsburgh last

   week. Baltimore has a solid run defense, too, ranking No. 2 last year. The

   problem for Baltimore is putting points on the board with rookie Joe

   Flacco at quarterback. Houston’s defense was supposed to be improved,

   but it didn’t look good last week. Flacco needs plenty of help, which he

   doesn’t have.The Ravens’ offensive line is in transition and their wideouts

   are average at best. HOUSTON 21-14.

   San Diego over *Denver by 7

   Only four times in Mike Shanahan’s 14 seasons as Denver’s head coach

   have the Broncos failed to score a touchdown.Two of those times occurred

   last year in games against the Chargers. San Diego out-scored Denver, 64-6,

   in sweeping the Broncos. Denver has plenty of incentive after suffering

   their worst home loss since 1966 to the Chargers last year, 41-3. Motivation

   is all good and well, but the Broncos don’t have enough defense to pull the

   upset.Their run defense is weak and their secondary is not as good as perceived.

   The Chargers have covered in nine of their last 10 games. SAN

   DIEGO 24-17.

   *Dallas over Philadelphia by 4 (Monday)

   Both teams are hurting for depth at wide receiver because of numerous

   injuries to their wideouts. But Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo still have

   big-play targets. The Eagles have played the Cowboys tough at Texas

   Stadium, winning and covering six of their past eight visits. This includes

   the last two when the Eagles held Dallas to a combined 13 points. The

   Eagles have no love lost for former teammate Terrell Owens. The Eagles

   have covered nine of the past 11 times they’ve been underdogs during the

   past two plus seasons. DALLAS 24-20.

   OVER/UNDER

   **UNDER: Tennessee at Cincinnati – The Bengals’ defense is ahead

   of their offense, while the Titans lack dangerous wide receivers.

   UNDER: Oakland at Kansas City – Two bad passing offenses means

   lots of running and tight defense.

   UNDER: San Francisco at Seattle – The last four in this series have

   gone ‘under.’The Seahawks best receivers are hurt.

   HISTORICAL TRENDS

   Oakland at Kansas City – The teams split last season with Kansas City

   winning 12-10 on the road and Oakland winning, 20-17, at Kansas City.

   Tennessee at Cincinnati – The Bengals buried the Titans, 35-6, at home

   last year.

   Indianapolis at Minnesota – The Colts defeated the Vikings, 31-28, at

   home in 2004.

   New Orleans at Washington –Washington beat New Orleans, 16-10, on

   the road in 2006.

   Green Bay at Detroit – Last year, the Packers won 37-26 on the road and

   34-13 at home.

   Chicago at Carolina – The Panthers beat the Bears, 29-21, on the road in

   the 2005 playoffs.

   New York Giants at St. Louis – The Giants rolled past the Rams, 44-24, at

   home in 2005.

   Buffalo at Jacksonville – The Jaguars blasted the Bills, 36-14, at home last

   season.

   Atlanta at Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers swept the Falcons last season,

   winning 31-7 on the road and 37-3 at home.

   San Francisco at Seattle – The Seahawks swept San Francisco last year,

   winning 23-3 on the road and 24-0 at home.The past four in the series have

   gone ‘under.’

   Miami at Arizona – The Cardinals nipped the Dolphins, 24-23, on the road

   in 2004.

   New England at New York Jets – The Patriots knocked off the Jets twice

   last year, 38-14 on the road and 20-10 at home.The host team is 2-16 ATS in

   the series.

   Baltimore at Houston – The Ravens edged the Texans, 16-15, at home in

   2005.

   San Diego at Denver – The Chargers rolled past the Broncos 41-3 on the

   road and 23-3 at home last season.

   Pittsburgh at Cleveland – The Steelers swept the Browns last year, 34-7

   on the road and 31-28 at home.The Steelers are 22-4 SU during the past 26

   head-to-head meetings. Pittsburgh is 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS in its last nine versus

   the Browns.

   Philadelphia at Dallas – The teams split last season with Dallas winning

   38-17 on the road and losing 10-6 at home.The Eagles are 6-2 SU and ATS

   in their last eight at Dallas.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 9 2008 5:21pm
3. 0 likes

   Stat Fox Platinum Sheet

   NFL:

   9/14/08 (197) NEW ORLEANS at (198) WASHINGTON

   You’ll notice a trend in this week’s NFL Best Bets, and that is I’ve chosen

   to continue fading some of the teams that looked worst last weekend.

   Washington is one of those teams. The Redskins were awful offensively

   against the Giants in Week 1. In fact, their performance was downright

   “offensive” to anyone who loves the downfield passing game. What makes

   it worst is that it wasn’t a matter of the Giants pass rush dominating the

   line of scrimmage, it was simply that Washington and QB Jason Campbell

   didn’t have a grasp on the new offense of HC Jim Zorn. While having 11

   days off to alleviate the problems, this week’s pointspread against the

   Saints doesn’t leave much room for error. The ‘Skins will have to win

   to cover. They just don’t look ready, and

   historically, this franchise has not been good at

   home early (7-21 ATS at home in September).

   Meanwhile, New Orleans has always been a

   better road spread covering team and has the

   momentum of a big divisional win last week

   to build upon. The Saints could be headed for

   a nice turnaround in ’08. Ride them while the

   price is right.

   Play: New Orleans -2

   9/14/08 (203) NY GIANTS at (204) ST

   LOUIS

   In the past, I’ve found myself making too many

   plays on home underdogs simply because

   they are in fact, home underdogs. I’ve always

   believed that in the NFL, it’s tough to win on

   the road, even when favored. However, I’ve

   come to learn through many painful lessons

   that bad teams are home underdogs for a

   reason. St. Louis is a bad team. The results

   of last week were no mistake, and while a bit

   surprised at the enormity of the pointspread

   in this game, the carryover article on PAGE 7

   convinced me that there’s just little reason to think the Rams can even stay

   in this game. After all, there home field advantage has been dismal of late

   (8-16 ATS L3 years) and the Giants are probably THE best road team in all

   the NFL right now (17-5 ATS L22).

   Play: NY Giants -8

   9/14/08 (205) BUFFALO at (206) JACKSONVILLE

   A lot changes in the NFL from year-to-year, and just because teams like

   Jacksonville and Cleveland were hot at the end of 2007, that doesn’t mean

   that they will automatically pick up where they left off in 2008. Quite frankly,

   after seeing Jacksonville play last weekend, the last thing the Jaguars

   are deserving of is a near TD chalk pointspread. Their O-line was simply

   abused by Tennessee, who held the supposedly powerful Jaguars ground

   game to 33 yards while registering seven sacks as well. I’ll tell you one

   thing, I am not comfortable betting favorites that might have issues upfront.

   At the same time, do you think Buffalo’s excitement level about the 2008

   season picked up a notch after last week’s win and announcement of the

   Tom Brady injury in New England? The Bills legitimately have their sights

   now set on the AFC East title. Confidence means so much in the NFL.

   Buffalo has it, and is getting six points to boot.

   Play: Buffalo +6

   9/14/08 (207) ATLANTA at (208) TAMPA BAY

   Atlanta looked awesome last week in turning back Detroit. In fact, the

   offensive effort was not one seen in those

   parts since about say…1998. So why are

   the Falcons a 9-point dog in Week 2? Simply

   because it is much different playing at home

   against Detroit than it is playing in Tampa Bay.

   This will be the first road test for rookie QB

   Matt Ryan in the NFL, and it could be a painful

   one, as few places match the combination

   of atmosphere and defensive intensity as

   Tampa. The Bucs were #1 in the NFL in yards

   per play defense last season. They routed the

   Falcons 37-3 in Week 14 to clinch the NFC

   South Division title. Now, needing a win to

   avoid falling two games back in the standings,

   I expect them to shut down the Falcons and

   roll. If you need statistical evidence as support,

   note that John Gruden’s teams are 13-6 ATS

   as home favorites of 7.5-14 points.

   Play: Tampa Bay -9

   9/14/08 (209) SAN FRANCISCO at (210)

   SEATTLE

   Lines of minus-9.5 poins are typically reserved

   for the upper echelon teams in the NFL. I

   don’t consider Seattle one of those teams, and last week’s performance in

   Buffalo is enough evidence for me to confirm the Seahawks aren’t in that

   group. This team is facing a lot of questions going forward, especially on

   offense, where personnel changeover and injury woes have left a far from

   potent attack. Against the Bills, that unit gained just 252 yards and 4.1 yards

   per play. Meanwhile, San Francisco actually outgained Arizona 291-285

   in the Week 1 loss. More dramatic, the difference in yards per play in that

   contest was 7.3-4.1 in favor of the 49ers. In most cases, that would result

   in a comfortable victory. Instead, five turnovers were the detriment. What

   is left now is a team that actually outplayed its last opponent but lost and

   whose hunger is motivated by the fact that they are a 9-1/2 point underdog

   in an important divisional game. Take these points but don’t’ be surprised if

   the 49ers challenge for the outright win

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 9 2008 5:22pm
4. 0 likes

   Stat Fox Platinum Sheet

   CFB:

   9/12/08 (103) KANSAS at (104) S FLORIDA

   Although pleased that my Best Bet on Kansas won last week against

   Louisiana Tech, it became obvious to me in watching that game that this is

   not the same Kansas team that took the field a year ago. Just the simple

   score differentials in the first two games should show that. Last year, Kansas

   won its first four games of the season by an average of 47.8 PPG, while

   scoring 53.5 PPG. In the first two games of ’08, that margin has dropped to

   29.5 PPG while the point production has been cut by 19 PPG. The reason is

   obvious, a lot of changeover offensively. It’s going to hurt this week when they

   play perhaps the toughest defensive opponent on the ’08 schedule, South

   Florida. The Bulls have allowed just 2.8 yards per play thus far. Their offense,

   behind all-everything QB Matt Grothe has also been superb, generating 1024

   yards in the first two games. Had it not been for a -5 turnover differential thus

   far, USF would be much higher priced than they

   are now. HC Jim Leavitt’s team is tough as nails

   at home and will be awfully tough to beat here.

   Play: S Florida -3.5

   9/13/08 (109) AUBURN at (110) MISSISSIPPI

   ST

   When looking at home underdogs on any given

   week in a college football season, I tend to

   gravitate towards a few different types of teams

   to consider backing. First, the team should be

   of quality and not simply an underdog because

   they are so poor. Secondly, there should be

   some glaring motivational factor, such as playing

   against a conference rival. Thirdly, the home

   pup should be a team that has demonstrated

   a hunger to protect the home turf. Well, in all

   three cases, I think Mississippi State fits the bill.

   The Bulldogs are a program on the rise, coming

   off a season in which they won their first bowl

   game in several years. In the latter half of the

   ’07 season, they beat Kentucky, Alabama, Ole

   Miss, and UCF, a strong set of foes. Here they

   will be hosting conference rival Auburn and will

   be backed by a nice StatFox Super Situation:

   Play On - Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MISSISSIPPI ST) - in

   conference games, with an experienced QB returning as starter. (61-24 over

   the last 5 seasons.) (71.8%, +34.6 units. Rating = 3*). The Tigers typically

   don’t put up the big offensive numbers to cover big chalk spreads on the road

   in SEC play. I’ll back the hosts.

   Play: Mississippi St +10.5

   9/13/08 (123) OREGON at (124) PURDUE

   Oregon has “wowed” the college football world in the early going by spanking

   Washington and Utah State in its first two games while putting up 110 points.

   Last week alone the Ducks bloated their offensive stats with 688 yards from

   scrimmage. How could anyone possibly bet against this team with numbers

   like that? Well, how about if they are finally playing a good team in a typically

   tough and unfamiliar environment? This game at Purdue will be a stiff test

   for HC Mike Belotti’s team, as Purdue is from the upper half of a power

   conference and boasts one of the top senior quarterbacks in the nation in

   Curtis Painter. He is fully capable of putting up big numbers himself. Plus, if

   last week’s rout by Penn State over Oregon State is any indication, traveling

   east for the Pac 10 is not easy. The Boilermakers are 10-7 SU & 7-5 ATS as a

   home dog, 37-27 ATS overall at home. Expect them to play well here.

   Play: Purdue +7.5

   9/13/08 (153) STANFORD at (154) TCU

   Some games on the college football schedule each week come off as

   obvious blowout situations. Others are much more subtle, and these are the

   games in which the bettor can get the most value in betting on a favorite.

   Perception has a lot to do with this. TCU has

   been an underrated team thus far, but has

   been absolutely dominant defensively, yielding

   just 2.9 yards per play. The Horned Frogs

   have been their typically aggressive selves

   too, forcing seven turnovers in two games.

   At the same time, Stanford, though 1-1 thus

   far including a seducing season opening win

   against Oregon State, has been blasted for

   481 YPG defensively thus far. In the Cardinal’s

   last three road games, they’ve been beaten by

   16, 17, and 24 points as well, and this might

   be the toughest venue of the bunch. TCU is

   12-4 ATS at home the L3 seasons, winning by

   about 26 PPG. Don’t misread the conference

   strengths here. TCU is the better team hands

   down.

   Play: TCU -12

   9/13/08 (167) OHIO ST at (168) USC

   College football betting is often a what have

   you done for me lately endeavor. Bettors think

   along those lines and oddsmakers build their

   spreads accordingly. Such is the case as to

   why USC is a double-digit favorite in this game.

   For fun, let’s go back in the proverbial time machine just two weeks. At the

   time, USC was ranked #3 behind Georgia and Ohio State. A convincing

   win over a pedestrian Virginia team somehow vaulted the Trojans past both

   clubs to the top spot. Meanwhile, an injury to RB Beanie Wells and a struggle

   against Ohio University has nearly everyone down on the Buckeyes. Two

   weeks ago, USC would have been favored by no more than a TD here.

   Now, it is suddenly 10-1/2 points. Every game is played uniquely on its own

   merits. It seems however, that this pointspread has been built upon way too

   many other factors. Included in these factors are Ohio State’s consecutive

   ugly national title game losses to SEC foes. This is still a very experienced

   Buckeyes team, and one of the top teams in the country. They are 3-1 SU

   & 4-0 ATS vs. Pac 10 teams, matching up better against Pac 10 style than

   SEC. There’s no reason USC should win easily here. Grab the points.

   Play: Ohio St +10.5

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 9 2008 5:22pm
5. 0 likes

   Sports Reporter

   Vol. 34, No. 3 WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2008

   NFL

   SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

   *KANSAS CITY over OAKLAND by 6

   With the Oakland Raiders, there are two constants: turnovers and penalties. Make every possible

   positive case you want to make about how their secondary is improved, how big-armed

   QB Jamarcus Russell can stretch defenses, how Darren McFadden is an incredible asset to

   what can finally be an improved running game…but always remember that the Raiders are

   an organization where incompetence begins at the top with Al Davis, then trickles down to

   the coaches and players. The Raiders have talked about improving for six years. Hasn’t happened

   yet. There is only one football for each side, and the Chiefs’ veteran, defensive-minded

   braintrust will not be overmatched by any of what is going on here. Herman Edwards,

   Gunther Cunningham and new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey will be watching the

   Raiders do whatever it is they might try to do on national TV vs. Denver on Monday Night,

   passing around the Cheez Doodles and Mountain Dew and making notes on how they can

   counter it. Sure, the Chiefs are young and have lost 10 in a row since the middle of ‘07. But

   the Raiders’ constant coaching staff and personnel shuffles frequently causes them to play

   younger than the sum of their ages. KANSAS CITY, 19-13.

   TENNESSEE over *CINCINNATI by 3

   Carson Palmer suffered through one of the worst days of his NFL career, passing for less than

   100 yards and putting up a career low single game passer rating. Things should improve –

   at least slightly – against the Titans, but Tennessee’s defense is no pushover and the Bengals

   will be handicapped by a running game that looks to be a problem all season. Tennessee’s

   formula will be simple: run, run and run the football some more. Jeff Fisher knows the key

   to winning games is winning the battle for time of possession, and the possibility of Kerry

   Collins taking over for an injured Vince Young may even help the Titans win the battle of

   turnovers, albeit reducing the big play potential of Young’s quarterback scrambles. As we predicted

   in the offseason, Cincinnati will have problems all season long, as the defense hasn’t

   improved and the offense still lacks a consistent method of moving the ball on the ground –

   a situation that won’t be helped if Palmer can’t improve his accuracy and rapport with his

   all-star receivers. TENNESSEE 17-14.

   BEST BET

   INDIANAPOLIS over *MINNESOTA by 14

   Minnesota enters this season with tremendous expectations placed upon them – expectations

   that might not truly be fair. Despite boasting one of the league’s best run defenses

   and playing in a weak conference lacking depth, the Vikings also feature a young and

   unproven quarterback and one of the more porous secondaries around. Coming off a

   short week and facing a good opponent and good quarterback coming off a sloppy game,

   we’re not too interested in the Vikings. There is a very strong possibility that Tony Dungy

   decides to have Peyton Manning come into this game throwing early and often to

   receivers that will overwhelm an undersized group of Minnesota cornerbacks. Once the

   Colts jump out to an early lead, they will settle for the two and three yard runs to eat time

   of possession while placing the onus on Tarvaris Jackson and a group of no-name

   receivers to catch up to them, effectively taking Adrian Peterson out of the game.

   Peterson remains one of the league’s most explosive performers and a touchdown threat

   every time he touches the ball, but his offensive supporting cast remains the same as

   ever, until proven otherwise. INDIANAPOLIS 31-17.

   NEW ORLEANS over *WASHINGTON by 4

   The Redskins offense should be able to muster some firepower at home and against a weak

   defense such as New Orleans, but the question is whether they will be able to keep up with

   a high flying attack that is sure to pass early and often throughout all four quarters.

   Washington is certainly not as bad as they looked in week one, and have the benefit of extra

   days of rest to prepare for this match-up, while rookie head coach Jim Zorn should learn

   some valuable lessons after reviewing game film from last Thursday. That being said, the difference

   between these two teams will be New Orleans’ most valuable player, Drew Brees.

   Jason Campbell has a long ways to go before he is considered in the same class as Brees,

   and while the completions will be easier to make against this soft secondary, the Redskins

   will be unable to keep up with the sheer depth of offensive personnel that the Saints will

   bring to the nation’s capital. NEW ORLEANS 28-24.

   *DETROIT over GREEN BAY by 3

   If nothing else – and there was definitely nothing there for them last Sunday in Atlanta -- you

   have to like the set-up for the Lions. They have one more day than the Packers to prepare

   for the game, and they had a chance to scout Green Bay’s performance in a division game

   vs. the Vikings on Monday Night. Lions’ coaches were passing around the Wheat Thins and

   Yoo Hoo, watching Aaron Rodgers on the move and in the pocket against Minnesota’s Cover-

   2 defense, and figuring out how their own Cover-2, several years in the making yet still with

   its lunch getting eaten by a rookie QB last Sunday, can minimize what Rodgers does best

   while setting him up to do as many bad things as possible. It’s also not a bad thing for the

   Lions to be catching the Packers off a short week after the Pack was forced to bang bodies

   with Minnesota, which boasts two of the biggest offensive and defensive fronts in the NFL.

   The Pack might be wanting that extra day to heal up from the bruises that come from messin’

   with Sasquatch. The Lions want to be running the ball more frequently this season, and 0-

   21 deficits have a way of ruining such plans. Running it more in this situation might give

   them a few more yards than they’d normally get while loosening up that tight pass coverage

   the Packers like to employ. DETROIT, 23-20.

   *CAROLINA over CHICAGO by 7

   Carolina pulled out an inspiring upset of San Diego in week one, showing a balanced rushing

   attack anchored by two young running backs and displaying a strong front seven on

   defense that helped to stymie the Chargers offense. The return of Jake Delhomme made a

   huge difference, as he was able to engineer a late game drive that enabled the Panthers to

   score the game winning TD, something that would not have happened with Vinny Testaverde

   or Matt Moore at quarterback. While the Panthers may find it more difficult to attack this

   defense, their own defense will face an offense that does not have the capacity to move the

   ball like the Chargers. Regardless of whether Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman is taking snaps

   under center for Chicago, the Bears will be depending on a combination of defense and special

   teams to score points – not a bad thing for an underdog, but the Panthers appear to be

   competent in all areas of the game. Bears rookie running back Matt Forte is an untested

   commodity, and Orton will not receive any help from a suspect wide receiver corps that does

   not feature a single proven NFL player. CAROLINA 20-13.

   NY GIANTS over *ST. LOUIS by 3

   ‘Oh my God, the Giants have won 10 straight road games and the Rams were 0-5 SU, 1-4

   ATS as a home dog last year and lost 38-3 last week. What an opportunity!’ Yeah, to be on

   the Rams, maybe, who are as healthy as they are going to be this year, especially on the

   offensive line, whose first unit never saw the light of the dome in the 2007 regular season.

   This comes at a time when the Giants are missing the bookend defensive ends whose talents

   triggered a 58-sack season last year, but 1 sack opening night against the Redskins,

   who used a still-green quarterback named Campbell. Veteran producer Marc Bulger will hang

   in the pocket longer than a kid like Campbell. That’s why Bulger gets hurt so frequently. It’s

   also why he has a lot of TD passes in his career. Unlike the Redskins, the Rams have the right

   running back for their blocking schemes -- Steven Jackson -- and an offensive coordinator,

   Al Saunders, who could use only two pages in his 2,000-page playbook when he had limited

   stiffs as his quarterbacks for four games he planned as Washington’s OC against the

   Giants in 2006 and 2007. NY GIANTS, 24-21.

   *JACKSONVILLE over BUFFALO by 1

   The score was 22-14, Jacksonville, early in the fourth quarter on this field in late November

   a year ago. The Bills were badly injured all over the place. Their #1 RB Marshawn Lynch did

   not play. Yet there they were in the Jags’ red zone, within one TD of tying it. Until J.P. Losman

   took turned the gun on his own team with yet another turnover. Balloon popped, Jags win

   36-14, a deceptive final score that gets Trent Edwards one step closer to being a better

   choice as Bills’ starting QB. The Cover-2 defense that we advertised as poison to Seattle in

   the Super Best Bet winner on Buffalo last week, will limit the long ones by David Garrard. The

   Jags will attack it with their running game and probably get an impressive rushing total – not

   necessarily what anyone would want from their favorite of greater than a field goal. JACKSONVILLE,

   23-22.

   *TAMPA BAY over ATLANTA by 6

   Let’s not get too crazy about the Falcons after they jumped out to a 21-0 first quarter lead in

   the first game for the new coaching staff, and rookie QB Matt Ryan. But with bowling-ball RB

   Michael Turner, they do have the kind of weapon that gives a four-man defensive front all it

   can handle in the Tampa-2 defense, because when they are attacked between the tackles

   for four quarters, they get all pouty and winded because the corners can’t help them contain

   that kind of rushing attack. Interesting. This particular overrated Tampa Bay team is to be

   respected, but never feared as a favorite of more than a field goal. We didn’t expect to be

   looking with this kind of interest at the Falcons just yet, but... TAMPA BAY, 20-14.

   *SEATTLE over SAN FRANCISCO by 7

   The Seattle offense may take a few weeks to get on track with Matt Hasselbeck looking visibly

   rusty after missing most of the preseason due to injuries and the majority of their wide

   receiver group sidelined by one malady or another. However, even the Seahawks at 70%

   should be enough of a match for the lowly 49ers. Practice in Seattle will be spent emphasizing

   the quarterback-to-wide receiver connection, and while the lack of healthy receivers

   will hurt the overall consistency of the Seattle attack, the 49ers will be starting J.T. O’Sullivan

   in his first road game in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. The noise will hurt communication

   among the offensive personnel, but even if the receivers could hear what O’Sullivan

   was saying, it’s doubtful that the shaky offensive line could stand up long enough against the

   Seattle pass rush to do anything about it. SEATTLE 24-17.

   BEST BET

   *ARIZONA over MIAMI by 18

   It’s Rag-Arm on the road for the Dolphins. The Arizona coaches have seen Chad’s act

   before, when they were employed in Pittsburgh and the Steelers would habitually shut

   down the Jets’ offense. Arizona’s personnel isn’t as good as Pittsburgh’s, but Miami has

   worse personnel than the Jets and the Dolphins’ first-season coaches and many new

   players have not yet to had an opportunity to mesh on a game week-to-game week

   basis. The Cardinals were 4-0 ATS vs. AFC opponents in this coaching staff’s debut season

   a year ago. Pennington knew a lot of secrets about the Jets’ defensive calls and tendencies,

   and yet the Dolphins scored only 14 points last Sunday. To get a handle on

   Arizona’s personnel and defensive tendencies, the Dolphins need more than the five

   weeks lead time with inside info they had on the Jets, which did not translate to either a

   win or a cover despite having a pair of solid running backs. Miami is a planeload of mistakes

   still waiting to happen on both sides of the ball. ARIZONA, 35-17.

   NEW ENGLAND over *NY JETS by 2

   Tom Brady’s status is in question for this week’s game against the Jets after leaving last

   week with a knee injury, but Patriots nation has to feel better after Matt Cassel acquitted

   himself well in a regular season game. Cassel consistently made good decisions and even

   threw some excellent passes to Randy Moss. While a serious injury to Brady would bode

   poorly for New England in the long term, the true storyline for this game will be the battle of

   the coaching minds, mentor versus student, Bill Belichik versus Eric Mangini. Brett Favre

   showed that his old bones still have some solid throws left in them, while Thomas Jones

   showed more spark in week one than he did all last season for the Jets. One thing you can

   count on is for Belichick to come in with a game plan that will exploit the gunslinger mentality

   of Favre. Expect a close game and a low total score for two teams that will struggle to

   consistently move to ball through the air. NEW ENGLAND 20-18.

   BEST BET

   BALTIMORE over *HOUSTON by 6

   As stated last week, you want no part of these Ravens against a good defense.

   Cincinnati? Not a good defense. Cincinnati’s D was so bad, that even Flacco Joe could

   manage a game to victory. We said some nice things about the Texans in the Zone Blitz,

   and perhaps they will eventually live up to them. But we also stated that John Harbaugh

   went about some unseen business while targeting a quick start to his Year One as head

   coach of the Ravens. Last week, he had Cincinnati’s ex-receivers coach on his side. What

   was Carson Palmer? Oh, 10-for-25, 99 yards? Hey, who out there still thinks that past

   big stats of overrated quarterbacks, and ATS records like Baltimore’s 3-13 ATS last year,

   is what makes winners here and now in the NFL? For this game, Harbaugh has the ex-

   Houston defensive coordinator Vic Fangio in his locker room. Fangio knows better than

   anyone else that the Houston defense hasn’t made a key stop since Hector was a pup.

   He was once one of the coaches begging and pleading for them to make one. Put check

   marks next to Baltimore for defense, special teams, uniquely tailored game plan, and hidden

   value for all the fumbles from last year that won’t be made now that they’ve cleared

   McNair and McGahee the heck out of that offensive backfield. BALTIMORE, 20-14.

   RECOMMENDED TOTAL

   UNDER 42

   SAN DIEGO over *DENVER by 7

   The Broncos will be handicapped by coming off a short week of rest and just now working

   in star receiver Brandon Marshall into the mix after his suspension for numerous offfield

   incidents. San Diego has owned the Broncos over the past three seasons, going 4-

   2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and after putting up such a desultory performance

   against the Panthers in week one, should be looking for a little redemption.

   However, keep in mind that LaDainian Tomlinson is still working himself into game shape

   after not taking a single snap in the preseason, as has been the pattern over the past few

   seasons, and both Phillip Rivers and Jay Cutler will be challenged by facing off against

   two of the AFC’s best pass defenses. The Chargers should prevail through a superior

   overall offensive attack, but don’t expect many points. SAN DIEGO 17-10.

   BEST BET

   PITTSBURGH over *CLEVELAND by 17

   The additions of Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers didn’t do much to improve Cleveland’s

   defensive line in week one and you have to question whether they’ll be able to win the

   battle in the trenches against a team historically known for their strength in the lines.

   Pittsburgh showed that they are capable of getting out to fast starts, demolishing the

   Houston Texans with a balanced offensive attack and swarming defense that gave the

   Texans little room to breathe. As poorly as the Browns looked for the majority of the afternoon

   against the Cowboys, there’s little reason to expect a different result this week. The

   absence of Joe Jurevicius showed in the way Derek Anderson couldn’t consistently move

   the ball in the air as his steady presence underneath robbed the Browns of their ability

   to stretch the field consistently with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. Cleveland

   clearly overachieved last season and took people by surprise, something that won’t happen

   again this season. Even in last year’s run, the Browns were unable to take on their

   division’s best team, and with Pittsburgh healthy and primed to start the season strong,

   don’t expect the Browns to avenge their embarrassing home opener against the Steelers.

   PITTSBURGH 31-14.

   MONDAY NIGHT, SEPTEMBER 15

   *DALLAS over PHILADELPHIA by 4

   The early gauntlet was thrown down when Philly won by 35 points, Dallas by 18 on opening

   day. Tony Romo got banged around by Cleveland’s pass rush, which wasn’t very good last

   year, and Philly will get in his face, too. Important, new speedy offensive playmakers on both

   teams this season. Felix Jones on Dallas, DeSean Jackson on the Eagles. The Cowboys got

   a lead and padded it on the ground last week against that statue of a Cleveland quarterback

   who their new defensive assistant Grantham knew he could rattle, hence the Best Bet winner

   on the Cowboys. But the Dallas D can’t be as confidently prepared vs. McNabb,

   Westbrook and the rest. Let the shootout start. DALLAS, 30-26.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 9 2008 7:06pm
6. 0 likes

   Sports Reporter

   Vol. 34, No. 3 WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2008

   COLLEGE

   THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11

   *RUTGERS over NORTH CAROLINA by 3

   The Rutgers defensive front four is smaller than you think, head coach Schiano replaced four

   assistants in the off-season, and the Tar Heels are better-coached and better-stocked now

   than when they lost 21-16 to Rutgers in the final season of the Bunting regime. Head coach

   Butch Davis hired Schiano at Miami-FL, so there is some intimacy here, which favors the

   road dog, who will add a few very quick kick returners who did not suit up in the opener vs.

   McNeese State. Rutgers had the worst FG to TD ratio in the Big East last season, and redzone

   woes continued in the Week 1 loss vs. Fresno, compounded by a new field goal kicker

   who they might want to kick in the butt. RUTGERS, 26-23.

   FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

   *SOUTH FLORIDA over KANSAS by 1

   Home team has the better defense, visitor has the better offense. Home team is coming off

   an intra-state rivalry, ESPN2 overtime win against the basic offense of Central Florida. Home

   team’s QB Grothe isn’t as accurate as KU’s QB Reesing. From the spread, Kansas’ running

   backs can probably play gash n’ go against a USF defensive front that would rather be rushing

   the passer than stopping the run. The rushing gains can minimize the bad down-and-distance

   situations for a Kansas team that specializes in avoiding them, and USF’s defensive

   ends won’t get there in time against Reesing’s short drops. Not seeing the home favorite

   opening up a margin. SOUTH FLORIDA, 30-29.

   SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

   NAVY over *DUKE by 4

   Navy needs the Kaipo kid at quarterback. He hasn’t played yet, due to a hamstring injury. The

   kid playing for him, Bryant, is advertised as the better passer, which makes him what, the

   300th best passer in the land, if that? Come on. Navy is not a passing team. Who cares if

   he’s a better passer when they only pass 6 times a game? However, if Duke coach David

   Cutcliffe, and the ex-Tennessee coaches he took to Duke with him, were at all interested in

   quirky offenses, they’d have applied for jobs at one of the academies, or Nicolls State, or

   someplace like that. ‘You want me to tell you a little somethin’ about the triple option, son?

   Well, alright then, you see, it goes like, well, er, ahem, wait a minute, it’ll come to me, uh,

   isn’t it in one of them there textbooks you boys carry around with you?” NAVY, 37-33.

   *VANDERBILT over RICE by 11

   The Owls have a better chance in a battle of SAT scores, but they should be able to keep this

   interesting. Rice will look to chuck it all over Nashville against the ’Dore secondary, which is

   their defensive strength. Although a lower-tier SEC squad, Vandy has nice athletes at corner

   and safety who can run and tackle in space. Look for the home team to put the ball in the

   hands of QB Chris Nickson in an attempt to keep it out of the hands of visiting signal caller

   Chase Clement. Nickson will likely be the best athlete on the field and will be tough for the

   Owls to hunt. VANDERBILT, 31-20.

   AUBURN over *MISSISSIPPI STATE by 10

   These two offenses will likely score less than a tax accountant at a nightclub. After a twogame

   competition, Auburn coaches have turned to QB Chris Todd to lead the charge, to which

   he said, you have “to take care of the ball and be smart.” Don’t expect him to pull any Brett

   Favres out there for risk of being pulled. MSU hasn’t scored more than 19 points in a game

   vs. Auburn in the last five years and that probably won’t change. Coach Croom directs a nondynamic

   power running game which when forced to throw, targets the same WR. The

   revenge-minded visitors won’t mind bottling up the ground attack while keeping a sub-par

   aerial game on the tarmac. AUBURN, 21-11.

   BALL STATE over *AKRON by 10

   The teams haven’t met since 2005 and the Akronites might be shocked at how good Nate

   Davis is up close and personal. Also, Wisconsin and Syracuse pretty much ran the same five

   plays against them, with QBs who are not allowed to freelance. Ball State’s playbook is bigger,

   bigger,

   their offensive speed is faster, and Davis can make something from nothing. Until this

   season, a game like this between West and East division MAC teams didn’t count in the divisional

   standings. Now, it does, so Ball can take it seriously towards their stated goal of winning

   the damn conference because they have to gain the best record in the West first. BALL

   STATE, 30-20.

   *EASTERN MICHIGAN over TOLEDO by 3

   Toledo drove at will against the Eastern Michigan defense in last season’s game, when the

   Easterns were playing for the 10th straight week without a bye. Who has circled the 600

   yards and 52 points allowed in that game? EMU’s defense. Toledo no longer has Jalen

   Parmele, the 220-pound back who took advantage of the small, tired EMUs last year. But

   DaJuane Collins is close to the same size. EMU had already gotten two games in this season

   before Toledo strapped on their helmets in Tucson last Saturday night. EASTERN MICHIGAN,

   31-28.

   *MISSOURI over NEVADA by 28

   Call Reno 911. The Wolfpack showed their teeth by battling Texas Tech, but Mizzou is a bit

   more balanced on offense and QB Daniel has more weapons than his Big 12 counterpart

   Harrell. Look for Daniel to control the game by spreading out the pigskin to a laundry list of

   RBs, WRs, and his big tight end. He can also tuck it himself, but had zero rushing attempts

   last week when they put him in bubble wrap. Nevada’s offense is not to be taken lightly and

   can chew yards and score points. Problem is…they need the ball to do anything and the

   Tigers can be a bit selfish when it comes to sharing. MISSOURI, 49-21.

   *TEXAS TECH over SMU by 42

   Home head coach Mike Leach to all good Texas junior high and high school football players

   observing: ‘Sons of Texas, this June Jones guy at SMU thinks he’s gonna come into our great

   state from those luas out in Hawaii, with a pass-happy system and convince you to go to

   SMU. Well, our passing system is more intricate and successful than his, so if you’d like to

   go to school in Dallas, and we Lubbock fellas are on the schedule when you get there, this

   could happen to you:’ TEXAS TECH, 62-20.

   *NEBRASKA over NEW MEXICO STATE by 24

   We had NMSU circled until two things happened: (1) Nebraska fell flat last week vs. Silicon

   Valley power San Jose St., and (2) Hurricane Gustav forced the cancellation of the Aggies first

   game (bye in week one). So now, QB Chase Holbrook leads his game-rusty squad into the

   Red Sea to face a bent Husker team eager to lose the taste of Northern California. With

   heightened senses, first-year boss Pelini will pound the running game and use play-action to

   push around a physically inferior defensive front. Holbrook will find success against an average-

   at-best secondary, but our funds are best applied against this overrated bunch in future

   weeks. NEBRASKA, 48-24.

   RECOMMENDED

   *BYU over UCLA by 19

   This week’s best-seller: “College Football Math”, by John Q. Public. BYU barely edged

   Washington. UCLA beat Tennessee (from the mighty SEC). UCLA has an all-star coaching

   staff. BYU’s coach shares his name with an untrained horse. Therefore, UCLA is better

   than Washington and UCLA should beat BYU. Thanks, John, but we’ll use our own formula.

   The Bruin hype machine is in full swing after the Vols coaching staff handed them

   a victory in Neuheisel’s return to Westwood. A defense that pressured UT’s new offensive

   schemes won’t be nearly as fierce against a seasoned, dynamic Cougar offense that

   boasts multiple play-makers. They are super-comfortable in the offense, as evidenced by

   an average scoring drive last week of 10 plays and 74 yards. Sure, defensive coordinator

   DeWayne Walker faced BYU twice last year with success, but he lost six starters from

   that defense and must march his troops into enemy territory for the first time this year.

   In that vain, UCLA QB Craft’s Jekyll & Hyde routine could turn into Hyde & Hyde in the

   thin air of Provo, Utah. A young Cougar defense won’t have to deal with as much here as

   they did against the fleet-footed Jake Locker up in Seattle last week. BYU, 33-14.

   OREGON over *PURDUE by 3

   It is all football, all the time for the Ducks right now. For the players who actually attend class,

   the Fall Semester doesn’t begin until September 29. When Purdue – with a 1 game vs. 2 possible

   disadvantage -- shows that it’s tough enough in the running game (given the lack of

   experienced receivers they have going into this season) then you can think about backing

   them against a well-balanced power-conference foe. Similar spread offenses and always

   suspect 4-3 base defenses here, no matter what they’re saying about that Ducky D to this

   point. Usually, when the opponent has a decent offensive system in place, the Oregon

   defense allows them to live up to the hype. OREGON, 31-28.

   BEST BET

   *TEXAS over ARKANSAS by 34

   Mack Brown has been at Texas long enough to understand the importance that this game

   holds to his alum base. Bobby Petrino, well, his history is stooped in the WAC/Pac-10/Big

   East, so he might need a history lesson. Brown’s focus will be there, as will his team’s

   superior talent. Petrino’s Razorbacks have needed two final-drive, fourth down conversions

   to survive Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. Texas is a completely different

   animal and don’t look for one of those traditional Longhorn sleepwalking jobs this season.

   The energy in the locker room is real, and QB Colt McCoy has his team firing out of

   the gates. He’ll use his arms and legs to spit-roast the visiting Hogs from the opening

   kick. Arkansas QB Dick is average and doesn’t have much around him besides an undersized

   starting tailback (5’7, 175 lb) and an NFL-caliber tight end. New Texas defensive

   coordinator Will Muschamp coached against Dick while at Auburn, and knows his weaknesses.

   He’ll bring pressure and force the visitors into bad situations – not where Dick

   excels. McCoy has the look of a seasoned vet wanting to make amends for his sophomore

   slump. He gets a hanging curveball this week and will go yard. TEXAS, 48-14.

   GEORGIA over *SOUTH CAROLINA by 6

   The Gamecocks are struggling through bad offensive play and internal turmoil just two

   games in. They always get up for the Dawgs and should be ready to do battle at home.

   Despite decent stats against weak opponents, UGA’s offensive front has been just okay and

   now faces a big-time challenge against one of the better defenses in the country. Georgia QB

   Stafford is a more traditional type who won’t cause as much trouble as did Vandy athlete

   Nickson. If no WR really steps up to make plays, look for Spurrier’s defense to contain stud

   TB Knowshown Moreno. Question is – can Darth Visor scrap up enough offense to upset the

   lands #2? His top WR McKinley is likely out, his RB’s are docile, and his QB’s have an affinity

   for throwing picks. Answer – no. GEORGIA, 20-14.

   SUPER BEST BET

   AIR FORCE over *HOUSTON by 17

   If you had to guess how Houston’s defense would adapt to playing against a flexbone

   offense, you’d probably have to anticipate that the results would be comical. When Art

   Briles was head coach, the Cougars had trouble stopping anything that moved, let alone

   something quirky like this. The new head coach with the Big 12 roots, and his Big 12,

   Pac 10 and NFL assistants, would need seven months to teach “C” class defensive players

   how to get ready for this assignment, not the allotted seven days, especially with

   them coming off an opponent – Oklahoma State -- that the coaching staff could sink its

   collective knowledge and football background into. How does first-year defensive line

   coach Jim Jeffcoat help his front four get a handle on Air Force’s offense, given his days

   as a Dallas Cowboys defensive assistant and DE player? The Texas Tech offense that

   Houston is operating is just fine and dandy, but it doesn’t necessarily attack the deep vertical

   areas where Air Force’s secondary is most vulnerable. The Falcons see this offense

   every year against BYU. May the Force be with you. AIR FORCE, 45-28.

   *OREGON STATE over HAWAII by 10

   The Beavers will use their athleticism at the skill positions to spread out a slower Hawaii

   defense en route to win #1. Warrior QB Tyler Graunke was inserted after the half last week

   and proceeded to go for 218 yards and 3 TDs. OSU’s secondary is experienced and should

   be able to corral an inexperienced group of islander wideouts. OREGON STATE, 31-21.

   WISCONSIN over *FRESNO STATE by 3

   As stated in the Zone Blitz, head pup Pat Hill has called this game the most important in their

   program’s history. That’s big given the level of competition that he plays. Knee-jerk reaction

   would be to follow the trendy pick and roll with the Bulldogs. Let’s discuss before we jump.

   Hill’s team did struggle running the football against heavyweights last year: 2.9 and 1.7 ypc

   vs. A&M and Oregon. His defensive front seven will also face 1,600 pounds of linemen blocking

   for a 230 pound tailback. Marshall had some success last week, but they didn’t have to

   worry about All-American tight end Travis Beckum, who is expected back for the Badgers.

   Expect a battle that is won with a three-pointer. WISCONSIN, 27-24.

   PENN STATE over *SYRACUSE by 32

   Possible letdown for the Lions in the dome this week, but who’s really willing to take sides

   with the Big East doormat that couldn’t contain Akron’s up-tempo spread offense? PSU also

   runs the spread, but will likely back it down to the bare bones offense they used against

   Coastal Carolina in week one. PENN STATE, 46-14.

   MICHIGAN over *NOTRE DAME by 3

   New Irish defensive collaborator Tenuta didn’t see many spread offenses during his time in

   the ACC. When he did, in a bowl game, the Utah offense made him and his players look like

   total idiots. Lucky for him and the Irish that Michigan isn’t equipped to excel in their system

   at the moment. But the Michigan defense is very well equipped to stand toe-to-toe with anybody

   until the final gun sounds, doing more than its share to spark momentum. It’s looking

   like Notre Dame’s defense is gonna have to do its share of the dirty work, too, because the

   police are standing by to arrest the offense for loitering and indecent exposure. It also looks

   like some Notre Dame players have either been recruited from high school gymnastics

   teams, or been eating rabbit food compared to some of the opposition. What’s up with this?

   MICHIGAN, 16-13.

   *IOWA over IOWA STATE by 17

   Iowa lost the its intra-state rival in ugly fashion last season, when they were caught in injury

   and suspension fallouts. Iowa State – with senior leadership that no longer exists – took

   advantage in what was a major point-to game for then first-season head coach Chizik. Now,

   it’s a major point-to game for Kirk Ferentz. All the Hawkeyes need is a little bit of offense to

   grind out some revenge, and a second straight shut-out for the defense is not out of the

   question. IOWA, 23-6.

   *VIRGINIA TECH over GEORGIA TECH by 3

   Remember the words of the coach who lost to G-Tech on opening day: “Good luck, ACC.”

   There are many potentially over-pursuing, fly-to-what-they-think-is-the-football newcomers

   on that Virginia Tech defense. Georgia Tech isn’t executing their new fluky-duky offense as

   good as they will in the future, but there will be plenty of Hokies caught out of position during

   the course of the afternoon. However, Paul Johnson’s offense fumbles, and he doesn’t

   care about it on the way to eventually getting things right. Although any decent defense is

   liable to intercept Va. Tech’s QB Sean Glennon, who is running out of excuses for being a

   team-killer, the Hokies have attempted to compensate for him by already holding the

   Blacksburg bonfire for Tyrod Taylor’s intended redshirt. Any participation by Taylor would create

   some confusion-causing running around for Tech’s defense to worry about. VIRGINIA

   TECH, 23-20.

   *CLEMSON over NORTH CAROLINA STATE by 17

   It sure didn’t flatter NC State that South Carolina came back and lost to Vanderbilt in the next

   game after beating the Wolfpack 34-0. If Clemson can manage to get the running game

   going, then NC State’s defense will be just as tired as it was in the second half against South

   Carolina. Clemson has their issues as far as matching up against their own kind, which NC

   State is supposed to be, but NC State’s offense got only 11 first downs and 2.2 yards per

   carry vs. William & Mary and is forced to use Harrison “Bad as Heck” Beck at quarterback.

   CLEMSON, 27-10.

   WESTERN MICHIGAN over *IDAHO by 12

   The Vandals really, really want to run the football. Trouble is, they rarely have the lead. Same

   story this week against WMU, who can move the rock up and down the gridiron. They rolled

   up yards against Nebraska and Northern Illinois, and will do so against a lesser defense in

   Idaho. QB Hiller will get ’em going in the first half and the defense will get enough stops for

   the visitors to coast home. WESTERN MICHIGAN, 35-23.

   BEST BET

   CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *OHIO by 16

   CMU allowed 56 points at Georgia last week. Ohio nearly upset Ohio State in Columbus,

   limiting the Buckeyes to two offensive touchdowns. Slam-dunk for the home team, Ohio,

   right? Not so, Mister Mo. Central Michigan was just doing what it does when matched up

   against bigger, stronger, more talented opponents – going through the motions on

   defense and maintaining their tempo on offense By playing fast on offense against opponents

   like Georgia, they set themselves up to tire earlier, make more mistakes, put their

   defense on the field too long, and let a game get away from them. But it all builds

   strength – and value -- for when the Chippewas drop down in class later on. Boo Jackson

   looks like a player at quarterback for Ohio, more with his legs right now than with his

   arm. But the fact of the matter is that there wasn’t much of an opportunity for Ohio State

   to prepare for Jackson’s antics, since Theo Scott had gone almost all the way for Ohio

   against Wyoming seven days earlier. For Ohio to be competitive, it usually helps to have

   an opponent that isn’t executing its offense well. Wyoming never does, and Ohio State’s

   #1 offensive player was out. All hands will be on deck for Central Michigan in the MAC

   opener, a proven scoring machine vs. this class of opponent. When you’re CMU quarterback

   Dan LeFavour and you have what it takes to play the whole game at Georgia, get

   sacked only once in 43 attempts and throw only one interception that wasn’t your fault,

   you’re in the driver’s seat vs. Ohio. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 42-26.

   CALIFORNIA over *MARYLAND by 6

   It’s way too easy to like Cal in this game. So, when Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen

   pulled a Mike Gundy last week and lambasted the media for knocking his lousy, benched and

   now-injured QB Jordan “The Stiff” Steffy, you had to be wondering, and thinking. Two games

   and one ugly Sun Belt road loss (like Maryland at MTS last week!) after Gundy booted Bobby

   Reid for Zac Robinson at Oklahoma State last year, Okie State outscored the vaunted Texas

   Tech offense 45-42 with its new quarterback. Chris “Ho-Hum” Turner is now the Maryland

   starter, but the Terps running backs are pretty good, no Pac 10 defense brings it on the road

   except for USC’s, and who out there wants to be burned when Ralphie Boy finally puts the

   zippy-footed mystery named Josh Portis behind center? CALIFORNIA, 33-27.

   *BAYLOR over WASHINGTON STATE by 1

   WSU has been waxed by solid teams led by experienced QBs. Baylor first-year boss Briles

   continues to groom his first-year QB Griffen, so this is a slight reprieve for the Cougars. But

   at least there is some positive energy in the Bear camp. The new system tasted success in

   the form of 51 points against Northwestern St., which is better than the rotten egg sandwiches

   first-year coach Wulff is eating on the Palouse. Give the edge to Briles and the home

   field in a battle of basement dwelling newbies. BAYLOR, 28-27.

   *TCU over STANFORD by 14

   TCU was a penalty- and turnover-laden mess for most of ’07. When a team cleans up its

   messes, it tends to put future favorable gaps on the scoreboard. The Horned Frogs gained

   nearly 500 offensive yards on Stanford’s field in a 4-point win last season, including 10.1

   yards per pass attempt. TCU wasn’t too healthy when they went into the Farm that afternoon,

   but Stanford was coming off the ultimate upset win against USC. TCU, 34-20.

   *BUFFALO over TEMPLE by 8

   Owl see ya’ later. Temple covers the spread by a mere 3.5 points vs. UConn in the rain and

   we’re supposed to be afraid of them? No way, Jose. UConn’s RB Andre Brown got too many

   carries (36) and too many yards against the Temple defense last Saturday. The Turner Gillians

   figure to spread the meanness with a pair of running backs – Starks and Thermilus – to better

   bully them and wear them down like they did in last season’s game in Philly, which was

   a Best Bet winner on the UB-doobies for all of us. Temple’s offense has been on the field for

   only 22 and 25 minutes in their 2-0 SU and ATS mini-streak. BUFFALO, 24-16.

   RECOMMENDED

   *TENNESSEE over UAB by 39

   Through last week the UT coaching staff continued to fume over the UCLA loss. That frustration

   will be taken out this Saturday, as they exercise the Rose Bowl demons in front

   of 107,000 Neyland Stadium faithful. The Vols’ growing pains in new offensive coordinator

   Dave Clawson’s system were painfully evident in week one. The o-line is experienced

   (4 starters back) and will make big-time strides in the 12 days in between games. It will

   help that the UAB defense is a wet paper towel – giving up 10.2 yards per pass attempt

   and 7.8 ypc against FAU last week. Probably doesn’t help that the Blazers still don’t have

   85 scholarship players on their roster. So you can certainly expect Tennessee to score

   early and often. QB Crompton will have more than enough time to find a trio of talented

   WRs and the RB unit will run to daylight for 60 minutes. What about UAB? Will they put

   up enough points to cover a significant number? Nope. UT’s defense is tough and will be

   out to avenge the second half misfire experienced in week one. TENNESSEE, 49-10.

   EAST CAROLINA over *TULANE by 18

   Not good to have a down-program Tulane team in only its second season in Bob Toledo’s

   offensive system, with only one game under their belt this season, against an East Carolina

   group that started playing for Skip Holtz when they were raw freshman and have consistently

   moved the football while becoming a turnover-getting group on defense, and playmakers on

   special teams. Slight letdown expected from ECU coming off the two power-conference targeted

   affairs that produced 2-0 SU and ATS, but Tulane has failed to capitalize on many supposedly

   favorable set-ups in the past. That’s why they’re Tulane. EAST CAROLINA, 38-20.

   *MARSHALL over MEMPHIS by 4

   It would be easy to write off Marshall after they went from leading 14-0 to losing 14-51 at

   Wisconsin last Saturday afternoon. But that’s a dangerous way to operate. Memphis’ offense

   can’t wear anybody down, and their defense is just like Marshall’s – hasn’t made a big stop

   since Moby Dick was a minnow. Memphis has all these 6’4” to 6’6” receivers, and nobody

   with a good enough arm/brain combination to make enough plays in games that turn into

   shootouts. They are not ready to name a dormitory after JC transfer Arkelon Hall. Marshall

   coach Snyder has rubbed his starting QB Cann’s nose in mistakes he made at Wisconsin that

   helped balloon the final margin. MARSHALL, 30-26.

   *CONNECTICUT over VIRGINIA by 13

   Stories just came out about Virginia’s #1 QB Peter Lalich drinking and weeding this summer,

   while on probation for an underage drinking charge. He has certainly played the position like

   he was under the influence. UConn has revenge for a narrow defeat to a better Virginia team

   last season, but they have problems converting yards to points. Luckily for them, Virginia has

   bigger problems with that. Cavs’ coach Al Groh will call his old UVA assistants at Temple,

   looking for info on the team that Temple took to OT last week. But does Temple have time to

   pick up the phone? CONNECTICUT, 26-13.

   OKLAHOMA over *WASHINGTON by 25

   Who is really surprised that Washington is 0-2? We’ll be more surprised if they are 1-2 after

   this weekend. Willingham’s crew does tend to play better against more conventional offenses

   (see Oregon, compared to BYU), but OU has way too much firepower and Stoops likes to

   use it early in the season. Cinci’s athletes gave the Sooners some trouble, so athletic QB

   Locker could make some plays, but he cannot do it alone against one of the nation’s best.

   OKLAHOMA, 42-17.

   BEST BET

   OHIO STATE over *USC by 3

   Stroll through any Southern California sports bar and you’ll here some variation of this,

   “Ohio St. only beat Ohio by 12 – Trojans will smoke ’em next week”. We’ll leave the

   smoking for the Penn State players, making money is for the Buckeye backers. Yes, USC

   looked good beating Duke on the road…excuse me, it was Virginia, but in name only

   because UVA has Duke’s talent. The USC offensive line is inexperienced and faces an

   enormous challenge against the Buckeyes’ front seven. QB Mark Sanchez has yet to

   prove that he can make plays when pressured in a big game and until we see it, we won’t

   believe it. Ohio State matches up better with USC’s pro-style game than it did against

   Florida and LSU in the last two title games. Jim Tressel & Co. will have had two weeks

   to prepare (Ohio week, and this week) for this battle royale, likely the primary reason the

   Bobcats hung tight. In a game of matchups, this one is a dead heat that will come down

   to the smallest guys on the field. Ohio State kicker Pretorius was 6-of-7 from 40+ last

   year and he’ll be the king of Columbus next week. OHIO STATE, 26-23.

   ARIZONA over *NEW MEXICO by 12

   Bad news for the Lobos – Arizona’s defense looks almost as good as their offense meaning

   your anemic offense won’t catch a break. Wildcats look for 3-0 and to avenge last year’s 29-

   27 loss in a game that saw Tuitama throw for 446 yards. His squad is a bit more balanced

   this year and they’re playing with confidence. New Mexico is at the other end of the barrel

   staring at an 0-3 start – all home losses. ARIZONA, 30-18.

   *BOISE STATE over BOWLING GREEN by 15

   The Falcons are road tested in winning at Pitt this year and played in Boise in 2005, so don’t

   expect the smurf turf to freak them out. That said – winning here ain’t easy, especially for a

   team coming off of a 42-17 home loss. Boise played Cupcake U. in week one and then had

   a bye, so the kids are rested and healthy. Boise’s skill position play-makers will make up for

   the lack of QB and o-line experience against a defense that has proven generous this season.

   BOISE STATE, 39-24.

   UTAH over *UTAH STATE by 28

   Utah’s offense is too balanced for the home Aggies to slow it down enough to hang. The Utes

   put up 225 rushing and 215 passing against a better UNLV defense. As for Utah St.’s D, after

   the Ducks’ 66-24 win vs. USU last week, Oregon true freshman QB Chris Harper said, “It felt

   like high school all over again.” Enough said. UTAH, 49-21.

   *SAN JOSE STATE over SAN DIEGO STATE by 6

   Tomey’s home Spartans are the more experienced and sport the better offensive line. Long’s

   Aztecs did have the best QB on the field at Notre Dame last week, but it looks to be a one

   man show. Gotta have eleven to win. SAN JOSE STATE, 27-21.

   *ARIZONA STATE over UNLV by 19

   The roadie Rebs could catch ASU peeking ahead to a desert battle with Georgia next week.

   They also have the talent to hang, at least for the first half. It is critical that the Devils keep

   QB Carpenter healthy, but even in a route of Stanford he was getting smacked around.

   Coaching staff will keep it simpler and involve the backs a bit more here as they plan for the

   near-term future. ARIZONA STATE, 36-17.

   RECOMMENDED

   *MICHIGAN STATE over FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 25

   You know the drill. For Florida Atlantic, games on the road in big stadiums vs. power-conference

   foes are mercenary affairs. They will erect a statue to Howard $chnellenberger after he

   retires someday, for the money he has directed into the university. It’s an FAU depth-building

   trip on several fronts – piggybank and roster – while Javon Ringer, on turf, speeds around

   inferior defensive dudes to control the affair, and the Spartans pad the lead by building some

   confidence in their passing game after that. Rusty (Big Play) Smith might hit a few long ones

   against a suspect secondary to make things interesting. MICHIGAN STATE, 47-22.

   *ALABAMA over WESTERN KENTUCKY by 31

   Western ran the ball 60 times in last week’s victory – but will be lucky to run 60 plays total

   this week. The ’Bama defense will be tasked with keeping the opponent to 10 points or less

   while the offense rests its injured offensive linemen for a battle at Arkansas next week.

   ALABAMA, 34-3.

   *ARKANSAS STATE over SOUTHERN MISS by 1

   Southern Miss will revert to RB Damion Fletcher up the middle, left and right, which powered

   them to 51 points against another Sun Belt foe in the season opener. They couldn’t use him

   much against Auburn – because of trailing early and all the way, and because an SEC

   defense would have continued to eat him up regardless (14 carries, 40 yards). But ASU isn’t

   the hapless Lafalot defense, and the home team’s own offense is known to chew its share

   of clock. ARKANSAS STATE, 24-23.

   *KENTUCKY over MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 12

   In MTSU’s win against Maryland last week, the Blue Raiders held it for 40 minutes, ran 82

   plays, and had 20 third-down conversion attempts. The difference this week is that the ’Cats

   defense has claws. Head coach Rich Brooks will employ the run ball/protect ball/defend ball

   strategy all year, so don’t expect a lot of “easy” covers like last week. Road dog could stick

   around for a while if their passing game heats up – but Brooks has better athletes that will

   salt away the home win. KENTUCKY, 24-12.

   *ILLINOIS over LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 28

   Lafalot head coach Ricky Bustle to world: ‘Just shoot me, or get me to the Sun Belt season

   in a hurry.’ Up in class, up in distance, down in the dumps. The over/under on Illinois interceptions

   from ULL’s bad passers is 3, despite ULL having having an extra week to prepare.

   The Illini have a bye next week, in advance of Big Ten season. ILLINOIS, 45-17.

   *LSU over NORTH TEXAS by 42

   Tigers are a big-time home favorite this week in football, but may play the role of underdog

   against Hurricane Ike. Assuming the game is played, LSU will employ the same strategy it

   did against Appy State – hand it off three times, throw it once, hand it off three times, etc…

   Resistance will be minimal, but the North Texas athletic department payday will be substantial.

   LSU, 48-6.

   WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

   KANSAS STATE over *LOUISVILLE by 1

   Kansas State hung tough two years ago when Louisville was the dominant Flying Petrinos

   and the Wildcats were struggling. Louisville, the Coach Krags version, ain’t very good now.

   KANSAS STATE, 23-22.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 9 2008 7:08pm
7. 0 likes

   Power Sweep

   4H Penn St over SYRACUSE - The Syracuse dome advantage has been nonexistent (0-6 HD) and last year we used our College GOY on USF (-16’) here and it was an easy 41-10 winner. Syr is 7-5 ATS vs ranked teams and upset #18 L’ville in ‘07. Penn St was just 1-4 as an AF LY but they are also 7-1 as a favorite vs non-conf. PSU QB Clark is making his 1st road start although the Lions fans will be well represented. LW Penn St rolled over Oregon St 45-14. Clark showed his grasp of the new Spread HD offense vs Oregon St and now faces our #106 def that allowed 478 yds to Akron. LW SU went with backup QB Dantley (former NBA’r Adrian’s son) but got similar results a 42-28 loss. HC Robinson is now 7-30 at Syracuse. This is an old rivalry that was played every year from 1922-’90 and Penn St leads the series 40-23-5. The Lions are 4-0 ATS as DD away fav since 1999 outscoring those opp’s 45-13!!! Could we go against Syracuse again as our September 5H? FORECAST: Penn St 52 SYRACUSE 10

   3H BAYLOR over Washington St - A pair of new HC’s face off here as WSU QB Rogers makes his first true road start. The Cougs new hurry-up offense faltered in their conf opener LW vs Cal as they suffered a tremendous beatdown (3H Winner) falling 66-3 to the Golden Bears. Baylor HC Briles has his offense headed in the right direction with new QB Griffin going 15-19 for 294 yds w/4 ttl TD’s in their expected romp of IAA NW St. In 2006 Baylor went into Seattle and almost pulled the upset (+13) with WSU getting a last second 17 yd FG to win 17-15 (WSU 336-246 yd edge) in a gm in which Rogers made his college debut leading WSU on 2 successful drives in relief. The Cougars also delivered a 5H Bowl POY against Baylor in the ‘94 Alamo Bowl. Wash St is 9-5 ATS in their road opener and has faced a similar off vs OKSt (367 ttl yds) while Baylor is 4-11 ATS at home. However, the Bears are 8-4 ATS off a SU win and have a new attitude with Briles at the helm. FORECAST: BAYLOR 30 Washington St 13

   3H USF over Kansas - THIS IS OUR FRIDAY NIGHT MARQUEE GOY! USF has won 10 straight non conf HG’s (3-1 ATS) and beat #5 West Virginia 21-13 at home on a Friday night LY & had a huge win on the road over #17 Auburn. These two met in ‘06 as we won with a 4H LPS on Kansas (-3’), 13-7. Last year we won our College 5H GOY on USF as they dominated Syracuse 41-10 (-16’). KU won all 5 road games LY (4-1 ATS), has 15 starters back and is ranked #13. Kansas took on the #100 schedule LY and finished #7 while USF took on the #24 schedule and after their embarrassing bowl loss fell out of the polls. Kansas is 2-9 SU in road openers while USF is 50-11 at Raymond James Stadium. LW QB Reesing threw for a career high 412 yds leading Kansas to a 29-0 win over LA Tech. USF squandered (look-ahead) a 14 point lead with less than 3:00 minutes left, but pulled off the OT win over UCF LW. USF has upset the L/3 ranked tms it has faced and HC Leavitt is 6-2 ATS vs ranked teams. The Bulls are our #1 Surprise Team and a Darkhorse National Title Contender with something to prove here. Leavitt will have USF pumped for this nationally televised meeting and this Fri Marquee GOY is free as our thanks for purchasing Power Sweep. FORECAST: USF 34 Kansas 17

   OTHER SELECTIONS

   2H NOTRE DAME over Michigan - LY ex-UM RB Hart vowed that the Wolves would win and they mauled ND 38-0 as both came in 0-2. UM is struggling as rFr QB Threet made his 1st start vs Miami but Sheridan guided the Wolves to its game clinching 4Q TD drive. HC Rodriguez admitted frustration that neither QB has taken command. Rod’s 1st WV team had a new QB & OL and lost 34-10 in its road opener. The veteran UM D has allowed 42 rush ypg (1.1) with 9 sks. Weis is 7-14 ATS at home including LW’s ugly 21-13 opening win over SDSt in which the Irish forced a goal line fmbl early 4Q while trailing 13-7. QB Clausen did rally the Irish with two 4Q TD passes. The Irish did miss a FG, botched another and fmbl’d away the ball on the SDSt 3. The dog is 11-2 ATS in the series. The Irish are the most improved team in the country and get legit revenge on a young offense in transition. FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 23 Michigan 10

   2H SOUTH CAROLINA (+) over Georgia - SC’s 16-12 upset (+3’) cost GA a potential BCS Champ shot LY. Afterwards Spurrier said, “It’s not like they were some big, powerful tm.” That’s plenty of motivation and add in the fact that GA was held without a TD for the 1st time in 6 years. GA QB Stafford (PS#2) is off to a great start avg 244 ypg (63%) with a 4-0 ratio while RB Moreno (PS#14) has shined as the feature back (227, 8.7, 6 TD). SC has had a few extra days to prepare for this off their disappointing Thurs night upset loss to Vandy. SC lost 24-17 despite a 325-225 yd edge as ST’s & TO’s cost them. QB Beecher st’d the opener (12-22 for 106 with 4 int) and Smelley st’d the Vandy loss (28-44 for 325 yds, 4-2 ratio in 2 gms). Star WR McKinley suffered a hamstring inj and missed most of LW’s gm (check status). This is always an early ssn battle (1st 3 games L/16Y) and the defenses (both in top 5 TY) have dominated lately as they’ve avg’d 26 ppg the L/3Y. Georgia has won 3 in a row in Columbia by 9 ppg. Though Richt is 25-4 SU in opponents’ stadiums, UGA is 2-4 ATS the L/2Y as an AF and Spurrier needs to win this gm to have any hope of competing in the SEC East race. FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 17 (+) Georgia 16

   2H IOWA over Iowa St - Not only has Iowa St covered four straight with a pair of upsets (17 pt dog LY, 9 pt dog ‘06) they’ve covered by 17 ppg. New Cyclone QB Arnaud (132 ypg, 77%, 2-0) is making his first road start and really hasn’t been challenged TY. ISU lost almost 50% of their letterman and it will be tough for this team to break an 11 game road losing streak (2-6 ATS run), but they are on a 4-1 SU & 3-1 ATS run. The Hawkeyes may have looked ahead the L2Y with conf road openers on deck but LY’s loss cost them a bowl so they’ll be attentive. Iowa rFr QB Stanzi tossed 3 TD (162 yds, 80%) in his 1st start LW but Ferentz says that the job remains open. Iowa has scored 17+ in just 4 of the last 10 meetings. Despite a 2-6 mark recently, Iowa is 24-11 ATS as a HF while Iowa St is 7-3 ATS in their first road game. LY Iowa St won without an off TD (see PH). Iowa has blown out its 1st 2 foes by a combined 88-3, outgaining them on avg by 266 ypg . Meanwhile, Iowa St has scored 40+ in its 1st 2 (most S/’76) as they’ve taken advantage of TO’s (+6) & ST play but they were outgained by Kent St LW (410-374). FORECAST: IOWA 38 Iowa St 17

   OTHER GAMES

   Thursday, September 11th - North Carolina at RUTGERS - In 2006 NC was at home (-4) and lost 21-16 but did come up empty on two drives deep into RU territory. They had a TD called back, were SOD and were int’d at the 21. NC has not won a road game outside the state of NC since 2002. An ACC team (Maryland) did come in here (+18’) and delivered another Big Dog Play outright upset in their 34-24 win LY. NC has 18 returning starters and while RU has 15 they must replace their key player RB Rice (2012 rush). The teams are fairly even on off with RU having the D (#32-72) and home edges. NC has a big ST’s edge (#62-116).

   Saturday Games - DUKE 38 Navy 27 - The Mids have won 4 in a row vs Duke by an avg score of 35-22. LY QB Lewis threw for 428 yds & WR Riley had 235 yds & 4 TD’s as we won with a 4H College Totals play on OVER 53 and it went over in the 1H! Duke led 43-35 in the 4Q and covered by 11 with Navy getting a FG on the last play for the SU win. Duke has 17 returning starters and an upgrade at coach with Cutcliffe while Navy only has 13 returning starters and loses outstanding Coach Johnson and this is only Niumatalolo’s 3rd game as head man. Navy figures to have a good crowd which negates a home edge. Navy is coming off their Friday night loss to Ball St. SB White has rushed for 476 yds (14.9) in 2 gms. While Navy has the offensive edge (#45-83), Duke has a large defensive edge (#43-112) with a solid D front. Duke is in a new role as they have not been a favorite

   since 2005 (-3 vs EC). LW Duke outgained NW 472-328 & outFD’d them 28-14 but key mistakes led to their demise. QB Lewis has 397 pass yds (59%) with a 2-0 ratio while true Fr J Williams has 13 rec (11.. While Navy leads the series 20-12-5, Duke has a new sheriff in town who has instilled some confidence.

   VANDERBILT 37 Rice 27 - Vandy is coming off a huge win at home, defeating S Carolina for a second straight year. Vandy was actually outgained 325-225 in the 24-17 win, but forced 3 SC TO’s. The Commodores have a few extra days of rest but wins are not the norm, and they are just 2-7 ATS after a SU win. Vandy’s QB Nickson has gone 14-22 with a 2-0 ratio vs 2 good defenses and now should have success against LY’s #102 pass D that has allowed 350 ypg in their 1st 2. Rice QB Clement’s numbers are down from where he left off LY (413 ypg pass L4 in ‘07, 288 TY), but he has a 7-2 ratio and is completing nearly 62% during his first 2. Anytime Clement is at the helm the backdoor is open as Rice is 9-4 ATS as an AD. Johnson is 4-8 ATS as a HF and 5-10-1 vs non-conf. Rice has lost 13 in a row SU to BCS conf schools losing by an avg of 32 ppg (lost to Baylor by 25 LY!). Rice is more experienced with 16 ret sts (Vandy 9) but Vandy does have 6 starters back from a D that allowed just 296 ypg at home in ‘07.

   Auburn 23 MISSISSIPPI ST 6 - LY we won a 4H LPS on MSU as they upset Aub 19-14 (+13). Aub suffered 5 TO’s in that gm which ended the Tigers’ streak of 14 consec SU wins in SEC openers (12-2 ATS). Aub did outgain MSU LY 323-213 and had outscored them by an avg of 38-7 the 4 years prior. In the L/5Y Auburn is 4-1-1 ATS playing an SEC team with revenge. Tuberville is also 8-1 ATS in SEC openers while MSU has lost 6 straight conf home openers incl 2 straight shutouts and is 2-6 ATS as an SEC HD. Aub QB Todd finally grabbed ahold of the starting job after hitting 21 of 31 for 248 yds LW and will make his 1st road start vs a Bulldogs D that all’d 49% comp at home LY and only 34% the L2W. MSU QB Carroll has avg 165 ypg (56%) with a 3-3 ratio in 2 gms. Aub has a large edge on offense (#40-109) and also an edge on def (#6-35). Aub’s D didn’t give up a pt in the 1st 102 mins of action TY and held SM to 6 yds in the 1Q LW. LY MSU gained just 135 ypg pass (excl Ark) and without the threat of the deep pass Aub will stack the line. This is a legitimate revenge game and Aub has won their L/3 in Starkville by 30 ppg while Miss St is 3-8 as a HD. We went against MSU in their opener and won a 3H LPS on LT and even though Aub has perhaps their most important gm of the season on deck (LSU), they should roll.

   Ball St 37 AKRON 30 - The Cardinals are 1-11 S/’96 in road openers with the avg loss by 27 ppg but 10 of those loses were vs BCS teams and LY they won 38-16 (-3’) at E Mich. The HT is 5-1 SU with BSU’s last win here in 1993 (last met ‘05). The Cardinals are 5-1 SU & ATS vs MAC East tms. Akron is 6-3 SU in home openers and this is the final season at the historic Rubber Bowl. Akron covered all 4 in the HD role the L/3Y with 3 outright upsets and almost beat MAC Champ C Mich in ‘07. Akron is off a 42-28 (+4’) win over Syracuse with a 478-353 yd edge but was tied at 28 in the 4Q. Ignore the current stats as Akron has faced the far tougher schedule so far with two BCS conf tms (1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS) on the road. Ball St has the off (#37-79) and D (#82-102) edges.

   Toledo 28 E MICHIGAN 24 - Both teams are off losses as DD AD. However Toledo was outgained in their season opener 452-244 by Arizona, while EM was only outgained 418-342 by Mich St, had a TD called back (holding) and was stopped at the 1 yd line on a fake FG. UT HC Amstutz opened 14-0 vs Michigan MAC schools but is on a 1-6 SU run. UT is 14-4 SU vs EM winning by an avg of 21 ppg and losing by an avg of 4 ppg. EM is 3-9 SU in MAC openers but Toledo is 0-5 ATS as an AF. Toledo lost their last trip here but won at home in ’07, 52-28 with a 610-417 yd edge. EM is 3-5-1 as a HD. Toledo rates a large edge on offense (#70-104) but EM has a large ST edge (#64-117) and is at home. The defenses are almost identical (EM #92-UT#94).

   MISSOURI 49 Nevada 21 - 1st meeting. In 4 of MU HC Pinkel’s first 5 yrs at Mizzou, the Tigers lost SU to a non-BCS team unexpectedly (BG twice, Troy & NM) but MU has since soared to new heights. Mizzou has won 16 of its L/19 gms going on a 13-3 ATS run during that stretch. The Tigers are 13-1 SU & 9-2 ATS at home s/‘02 vs non-conf tms. MU has the edge on off (#12-25), def (#58-85) & ST (#81-97). Nevada is 1-12 SU & 5-7 ATS vs ranked tms since ‘95. The Wolf Pack is 1-11 SU but is 5-4 ATS away vs BCS tms with the lone SU win at Washington in ‘03 (28-17, +17’). UN HC Ault dropped his first 7 gms as an AD but is 4-2 since. This is the Wolf Pack’s road opener & UN allowed 483 ypg away in ‘07. UN has had 2 road gms vs ranked BCS tms in the L/2Y & mailed it in with losses by an avg of 52-15 (Neb 52-10 in ‘07, ASU 52-21 in ‘06). UN has a bye on deck while MU hosts Buffalo next.

   TEXAS TECH 52 Smu 14 - In HC Jones’ first year at Hawaii the team went from 13 ppg to 31 ppg. LW SMU led 30-6, had its 2nd most pass TD’s (Mitchell had 370 yds, 65%, 5-0) in a gm, 1st pair of 100+ WR’s S/’99 and snapped an 11 gm losing streak. The Mustangs have gone 4-1 ATS as a DD dog but have struggled vs Leach’s offense going 1-3 ATS while getting outscored by 34 ppg. Tech has been less than impressive so far with Harrell avg 417 ypg (60%) with just a 3-3 ratio as they were outgained LW 488-421. SMU will catch some tms unprepared for the pass attack but this TT D practices against one of the best daily and saw another mobile QB who likes to throw LW holding Nev’s Kaepernick to 264 yds (not bad for the Pistol off). Leach also has a big ego and will want to show who the state of Texas’ premier pass attack is. Jones said his new offense probably would not hit stride until after Wk 3. Leach is 23-13-1 as a HF and only has a IAA and a bye on deck. TT is 12-0 SU (9-3 ATS) vs SMU S/‘89 winning every gm by DD’s (avg margin of victory 28 ppg) incl 49-9 LY. Harrell has avg’d 381 ypg (72%) with a 9-1 ratio in 2 starts vs SMU (just 6Q’s). Look for the Red Raiders to handle the Mustangs in this old SWC rivalry as Leach can’t be happy with LW’s performance. TT delivered one of our favorite 5H winners of all-time, a 70-10 demolishing (-7) of Neb at home in ‘04. Is SMU next?

   NEBRASKA 52 New Mexico St 17 - Nebraska set school records with 677 rush yards and 883 total yards in their last mtg in 1982. Neb was just #84 in pass D LY and lost 6 of their top 8 in the secondary. A surprising stat is that LY Nebraska threw for 324 ypg and NMSt 332, almost identical and both had losing records. Neb has played 2 gms already but this will mark NMSt’s opener (bye & hurricane). Husker QB Ganz is avg 281 ypg (61%) with a 4-3 ratio and the secondary is allowing 279 ypg (60%) with a 2-3 ratio. Aggies are 4-12 as an AD and have their top rivals on deck but they do have a veteran QB in Holbrook. The Aggies were outscored by a 47-18 avg on the road in ‘07. Neb was solid vs WM, but LW led SJSt early 4Q 14-12 before a KR TD & the Spartans lost their starting QB (outgained 353-315). Huskers need a feel-good win and should hold nothing back with a bye on deck. Pelini will have his sights set on a 3-0 start as no tm will be taken lightly after no bowl LY. We have used Nebraska numerous times as 5H’s incl ‘06 when they delivered as the Game of the Year! Will we give Pelini his first honor?

   OTHER COLLEGE GAMES cont from page 3

   BYU 31 Ucla 23 - 3rd meeting in 370 days and LY the tm that deserved to win lost both. In Sept, BYU had a 435-236 yd edge but lost 27-17. In the bowl UCLA was depleted at QB but had a 316-265 yd edge but had their chip shot 28 yd FG on the gm’s final play blk’d and lost 17-16. UCLA OC Chow spent nearly two decades as OC with BYU. BYU is 8-3 as a HF but UCLA is 5-1 as an AD. UCLA had a bye LW but RB Bell, WR Everett and TE Paulsen are exp to miss here (check status). QB Craft will not be intimidated here as he was thrown in as starter while at SDSt (inj’s to top 4 QB) and hit 20-32 for 216 vs BYU with a couple of 3Q TD drives. BYU is off a 28-27 win (1st non-conf AG win S/’02) vs Wash helped by a very ?? celebration pen (blk xp) after Locker ran it in w/:02 left. QB Hall is avg 412 ypg (78%) with a 5-1 ratio. After a 213 yd performance in the opener, WR Pitta topped 100 LW (10 rec, 17.2 on yr) and RB Unga has 200 yd (4.9). We won a 3H LPS going vs BYU LW playing a P10 team but they win the rubber match against the beaten up Bruins. BYU has delivered numerous 5H GOY’s. Will they get the call again.

   Oregon 44 PURDUE 27 - Oreg is 8-1 ATS away vs non-conf and 5-0 ATS away vs the B10 incl LY’s win at Mich. Despite inj’s the Ducks offense (#5) is avg 29 FD/gm, 592 ypg & 55 ppg. QB Roper (concussion in opener) started in their 66-24 wipeout of USU, a 2H winner on these pages, but #1 TB Johnson (shoulder) had to leave the game in the 1st series (check status). Ducks underrated D (#21) has allowed just 2 TD drives by the 1st string so far. The secondary will give Boiler QB Painter his 1st ‘08 test. The Boilers are just 1-5 ATS home vs non-conf and are not as battle tested having only beaten IAA N Col, a game in which they were outFD’d 22-17 & had 2 blk’d P’s set up TD’s. PU is 1-3 as a HD and hasn’t beaten a ranked team at home SU S/’03. In their L/4 vs power teams PU has come up short getting manhandled by Ohio St, Mich, Penn St and Wisky.

   TEXAS 48 Arkansas 13 - Texas last hosted Ark in ’03 and was upset (-13’) 38-28 which broke a 20 game home win streak. QB McCoy has put the “soph slump” talk to sleep with a 252 pass ypg avg (76%) with a 7-1 ratio and is also the tm’s top rusher. He will feast on a young Ark secondary that allowed ULM QB Lancaster to throw for 270 yds LW. Ark QB Dick has adjusted well to Petrino’s offense avg 321 ypg (63%) with a 4-1 ratio and has led the tm to wins on their final drives in each of the L2 wks. Hog RB Smith rushed for 157 yds & 2 TD’s after missing the opener (susp). The second mismatch will be an improved UT DL against an Ark OL getting their 1st true test in pass blocking in their first road game. The scheduling edge also goes to UT with Rice on deck and the Hogs having their SEC opener vs Bama. This used to be one of the best rivalries in the NCAA and most assuredly was the focus of UT’s preseason prep with Brown being 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS vs the Hogs. This is the only BCS tm the Horns face in the first 5 wks. UT is 9-3 as a HF of 17+ and we won our Underdog POW on ULM last week as they almost pulled the outright upset. This is a big step up in competition for Petrino & Co after struggling to get past W Ill and ULM in the first 2 wks. Also UA’s young tm (15 true frosh plyd in opener incl 6 starters!), with only 10 starters back from LY, has a more important gm on deck. We have used Ark 6 times as a 5H, will we do it again?

   HOUSTON 37 Air Force 24 - 1st meeting. Service Academies have the rep of being great travelers but AF is just 8-13 SU (4-2 ATS LY) on the road. This is UH’s only HG vs a IA foe this month and they are 5-10 ATS in their first lined HG. AF is in a huge MWC sandwich beating WY LW and facing Utah next week. QB Smith has only passed for 90 yds (69%) with a 1-1 ratio but is the #2 rusher (134, 4.2) while Halderman leads with 172 rush yd (19.1!). Hou built a 16-14 HT lead LW (all OKSt pts off UH TO’s) but couldn’t hold off the Cowboys in the 2H in a 56-37 loss, delivering us a 2H College Total win on the OVER. Hou gave up 699 yds ttl off (#2 OKSt hist). QB Keenum is avg 390 ypg (65%) with a 9-0 ratio and his fav target is WR Hafner with 182 rec yds (12.1). While Hou’s DC Skladany has his work cut out facing the OkSt pass attack one week foll by AF’s option this week, AF’s D (only all’d 173 ypg pass w/8 sks in 1st 2) is traveling to take on our #39 off, in their toughest test yet.

   OREGON ST 38 Hawaii 17 - OSU returns home for the 1st time this ssn after being hammered in Happy Valley 45-14. LY’s dominating rush D has now allowed 225 rush ypg this ssn after finishing #1 in the NCAA LY giving up just 71 ypg! Riley is 15-0 SU at home vs non-conf opponents (OSU has won 24 straight) and in 2006 his unranked Beavers were fresh off their big win in the Civil War and came away with the upset win on the islands against a #24 Hawaii squad 35-32 (+8’) despite being outgained 504-326. The Warriors actually trailed IAA Weber St 17-7 at the half before establishing themselves in the 2H for the 19 pt win as QB Graunke relieved 1st time starter Funaki (just 87 pass yds). They do have a trip to the Swamp under their belt and a bye next week but are still a young team (8 ret sts) playing in front of a loud Corvallis crowd. While OSU has just 3 starters back on D, they do have one of the top CB combos in the NCAA and were #10 in our pass D rankings LY (153 ypg allowed, 54.5% TY). With OSU off 2 losses and a bye on deck, LY’s Sugar Bowl participant will have their full attention. We’re 2-0 on 5H games involving Oregon St. Do we make it 3-0?

   FRESNO ST 27 Wisconsin 23 - Fresno plays “anyone, anywhere, anytime” but this one is in front of the Red Wave. Under Hill, the Bulldogs have hosted 5 current BCS teams going 4-1 SU & ATS. The Bulldogs won 24-7 at Rutgers on Labor Day despite being outFD’d 22-16 as Brandstater and Ajirotutu hooked up for 2 crucial big plays which broke open a scoreless game at the half. Fresno did allow 5.0 ypc rush LY but just 106 yds (3.1) in the opener. UW QB Evridge hit 17-26 for 308 yds as the Badgers scored the gm’s L/51 pts in a 51-14 win over Marshall. RB Hill had only 57 yds LW as the Herd loaded the box. TE Beckum & LB Casillas haven’t played in the 1st 2 but both are expected back here. The Badgers are 0-4 as an AD under Bielema (opened as 1’ fav). FSU upset UW in Madison in 2001 and almost repeated in ‘02 losing 23-21 (+9’). The red t-shirts have been printed all summer with this game being the focus of the season and emotions will be at a crescendo for the “red wave”.

   VIRGINIA TECH 21 Georgia Tech 17 - The winner of the four ACC gms in this series has an avg margin of victory of 23 ppg. We used GT as a 3H LPS in their last trip to Blacksburg and they actually dominated leading 38-13 after 3Q as a 10 pt dog! LY we used VT as our Thurs Night ESPN play and they dominated GT on the road 27-3 as a 3 pt dog! This is the first matchup for a Bud Foster D vs a Paul Johnson option offense. GT does have just 9 starters back (VT 10) and their young QB is taking on a confusing D. Johnson is 14-4 ATS as an AD but GT has the youngest squad in the ACC w/75 Fr & So and it showed LW as the offense only managed 235 ttl yds but they somehow pulled out the 19-16 win over BC. RB Dwyer has rushed for 220 yds (7.6) and QB Nesbitt has 110 (4.2). GT has the offensive edge (#59-85) but VT has a slight defensive edge (#36-44) and solid sp tms edge (#50-84). Beamer is 10-3 as a conf DD fav but the dog has been dangerous in this series.

   CLEMSON 38 NC State 7 - Clemson has won 4 in a row SU in the series and LY dominated more than the final of 42-20 would indicate as they had 200-1 yard edge after 4 poss and rolled up a 608-192 yard edge. Clemson has avg 269 ypg rush the last 3 meetings. The dog is 5-1 ATS and the visitior is 7-1 ATS in the series. Clemson, who has 16 starters back, is playing their ACC opener in a IAA sandwich so they will give their “A” game especially after their embarrassing 34-10 loss to Bama on National TV in Wk 1. NCSt only has 10 ret starters but O’Brien is 9-3 ATS as an AD. QB Beck, who took over for the inj’d Wilson, has passed for 246 yds (61%) with a 2-1 ratio. Wilson however, is expected to return & start here (check status). RB Brown has rushed for 144 yds (3.. Clemson is 8-12 as a HF. The Tigers have the edge on both sides of the ball (off #31-97, def #30-83). QB Harper has passed for 380 yds (65%) with a 1-1 ratio. RB Davis has 120 yds (6.3) and Spiller 82 (10.3). When you expect Bowden to win, he tanks so now the Tigers should roll with lowered expectations.

   W Michigan 34 IDAHO 17 - This is only Idaho’s 6th non-conf true HG vs a IA tm since moving up to IA in ‘96. LY Idaho hosted N Ill and it was a strange one as the Huskies led 35-7 thanks to 2 return TD’s but only won 42-35. Idaho had a 606-356 yd edge but had 3 long drives in the 4Q with the game out of reach. Cubit is 1-4 as an AF but Akey is 0-5 ATS in the Kibbie Dome. After being demolished in their opener vs Arizona (outgained 521-112), the Vandals beat IAA Idaho St 42-27 thanks to a blocked punt and being +3 TO’s as they only had a 419-397 yd edge and were outFD’d 25-18. WM is off a 3 pt win over NI but were outFD’d 23-19 and outgained 439-384. Idaho has their WAC opener on deck, while WM will host IAA Tenn Tech. Idaho QB Enderle has just 218 total pass yds while WM QB Hiller is avg 264 ypg (64.6%) with a 5-1 ratio (342 yd vs Nebraska). WM has a huge edge on off (#64-118) and def (#70-116) and has traveled to tougher places to play the last couple years (Neb, Iowa, Missou, WV, Fla St & Virginia).

   C Michigan 31 OHIO 30 - CM is on an 11-1 run SU away from home vs the MAC (7-3-1 ATS). Rematch of the 2006 MAC Title gm when CM outgained Ohio 457-224. OU has won 5 straight home openers (4 vs IAA), including 2005’s OT upset of Pitt 16-10. CM has the more veteran squad but Solich is 4-2 ATS as a HD. Ohio almost beat Wyoming on the road in Wk 1 and put a scare into #3 Ohio St as they led 14-12 into the 4Q before giving up 14 unanswered pts (2-0 ATS). The Bobcats were only outFD’d 17-15 and outgained 272-254. CM didn’t worry #2 Georgia as they were outgained 552-309. CM is 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS vs MAC East tms while Ohio is 5-4 SU & ATS vs MAC West tms since 2005. Ohio starting QB Scott was knocked out of the OSU game (check status). His backup Boo Jackson (PS#63JC) had 55 yds rushing but hit just 9 of 25 pass att (86 yd) with 3 int. QB LeFevour is avg 234 ypg (60%) with a 5-1 ratio. CM has the offensive edge (#30-102) but Ohio has the defensive edge (#51-113).

   California 31 MARYLAND 17 - 1st meeting. Cal makes their 1st visit to the EST S/’01 fresh off their ssn opening win vs Mich St and LW’s demolition (3H LPS Winner!!) of WSU where they handed the Cougars their most lopsided loss in the 69-game series. The RB duo of Best and Vereen impressed again rushing for a combined 280 yds on just 23 carries (12.2). MD dropped the ball LW against MTSt as QB Turner completed just 46% of his passes w/3 costly int in his 1st start of ‘08. The Terps continued their struggles during the 1st 3 gms of the ssn moving their current ATS run to just 1-12. The Terps are 4-11 ATS vs non-conf opponents but you have to believe the Fridge made this game his main priority in the 1st month of the ssn. Cal has big edges on off (#7-74) and def (#13-62). The Bears have won 5 of 6 road games vs non-conf foes and need a strong showing here to keep up their early ssn momentum in preparation for the rest of their P10 slate.

   TCU 41 Stanford 13 - After delivering a winning performance in Wk 1, the Cardinal lost convincingly for the 3rd consec ssn vs ASU LW in Tempe giving us a 4H Top Weekly LPS Winner and now move on to Fort Worth with revenge on their minds after blowing a 31-17 3Q lead to TCU LY in Palo Alto (Stanford is 6-2 ATS in 2nd of a B2B road). TCU is 10-2 SU vs BCS conf schools and comes into this gm somewhat under the radar with all the MWC talk being about BYU and Utah despite solid performances vs NM and IAA foe SF Austin LW. The Frogs are 10-4 as a HF (8-3 as a DD fav) and arguably have the best D in the MWC (165 ttl yds allowed, 3 ppg, 19 ttl FD’s all’d) which could prove to be troublesome for a Stanford team who is making a 2nd straight road trip into a hotter climate.

   BUFFALO 20 Temple 17 - This is the MAC opener for both teams. TU was “welcomed” into MAC play LY vs UB as they were outgained 414-141 (-36 yds rush). LY at Buffalo, TU had 11 true Fr play (9 others 1st start), fielding the youngest tm in school history. Buf was 3-1 at home vs the MAC LY with 3 DD wins. Temple is 2-29 SU on the road. Buf is 2-0-1 all-time as a HF. Both teams are very experienced with Temple having all 22 starters back. Both teams are 1-1 SU with loses to Big East teams but are 2-0 ATS. The Owls led Conn 6-0 until the 4Q in a steady rain but lost in OT by 3 and were outFD’d 21-10 and outgained 379-298. The Bulls hung tough with Pitt trailing 17-16 in the 4Q and were only outgained 352-348 (each had 22 FD). Temple has the defensive edge (#48-73) but Buffalo has the offensive edge (#57-112) and the Bulls RB Starks has 276 yds (5.4) which is more than the Owls entire team (212, 3.3). LY’s dominance by Buffalo on the road is worth noting.

   TENNESSEE 48 Uab 13 - UAB has already faced CUSA’s #1 team Tulsa (outgained 601-414), the SBC’s #1 team FAU (outgained (554-482) and now travels for a 2nd straight week to face an SEC team. The Blazers finished LY in the bottom 10% in both off and def and while overmatched LY they did cover 4 of their first 5. UAB’s off is led by QB Webb who has avg 248 ypg (54%) with a 4-1 ratio and is also the tm’s top rusher with 202 (5.6). Tenn has had 2 weeks to stew over a Labor Day loss (6-1-1 ATS off a loss) and Fulmer will want to work out his offensive concerns (QB Crompton 19-41 for 189 yds, 1 int) with Florida on deck. The biggest mismatch this week is UAB’s DL which allowed 5.7 ypc rush LY (6.9 TY) vs the Tenn OL which allowed FOUR sks LY and rushed for 5.7 ypc at home vs non-conf. UT was on a 10-26 ATS run as a HF but was 4-1-1 LY. While UT only won their last meeting 17-10 (-21’) in ‘05, they have covered their L/2 at home vs CUSA. UT has large edges on off (#22-94) & defense (#27-114). UAB plays BCS schools tough losing the L/5 but 4 of those were by 10 points or less. UT needs some confidence however and will make a strong showing at home and Fulmer is 17-9-1 ATS off a SU loss since 2000.

   East Carolina 27 TULANE 10 - EC is 7-2 SU (3-6 ATS) vs Tulane with both losses being in the dome. The HT is now 7-2 in this series. LY EC jumped out to a 21-6 halftime lead and rolled 35-12 at home (-12). EC is coming off 2 straight upset wins against BCS schools (V Tech, WV) and has another one on deck (NC State). The Pirates controlled the game against WVU, outgaining them 386-251. QB Pinkney has completed an amazing 80% in the first 2, with a 2-0 ratio. The Pirate D held WVU’s explosive QB White to 169 total yds. Tulane is coming off a tough 20-6 loss to Bama in which they outgained the Tide 318-172. TU’s special teams let them down as they allowed a PR TD, missed 2 FG’s (41, 23) and all’d a blk’d punt for a TD. Both teams have veteran squads but this is TU’s 2nd game while EC is in their 3rd (Tulane lost to Houston 34-10 in a similar situation LY). TU is 3-10-1 as a HD and 4-11 ATS in home openers while Holtz is 2-2 as an AF. EC has excelled as a dog but being a big road favorite is another story.

   MARSHALL 38 Memphis 26 - LY Memphis won 24-21 with backup Hudgens at QB. He threw for a career high 346 yds as we won our ESPN Thurs Night play. Both teams are coming off losses. Memphis (0-2) dominated early but lost to Rice LW after allowing 29 4Q pts. The Tigers outgained Rice 523-430. QB Hall completed 29-38 (76%) for 373, but threw 2 int, with the 2nd being ret’d for the gm winning score with only :11 left in the gm. Marshall is coming off a loss to Wisc in which they actually led 14-0, before allowing 51 unanswered pts. Marshall HC Snyder is 8-5-1 ATS at home and this is their only IA home opp this month. They have 17 starters back and make our Most Improved list. Memphis is just 2-8 ATS in CUSA road openers and 12-18 in CUSA road gms. The HT has covered all 3 meetings.

   CONNECTICUT 31 Virginia 10 - Last year in their first ever meeting the Cavs squeaked out a 17-16 win at home (see PH). Conn has won 8 straight (7-1 ATS) at Rentschler Field and is 24-13-1 ATS at home this decade. The Huskies have 17 ret starters while Virginia has just 11 and has a young QB and OL making their first road trip. LY the Cavs were 3-0 ATS as an AD but in their last rebuilding year (‘06) VA went 0-5 ATS. LW Conn edged out Temple in OT 12-9 on the back of RB Brown who had a career high 214 yds. He helped overcome sloppy play incl 3 missed FG’s that had them trailing 6-0 after 3Q in poor weather conditions (rain/wind). VA pitched a shutout over IAA Richmond 16-0 despite having only a 3 pt lead after 3Q. The Huskies have the off (#58-90) & def (#31-53) edges. HC Edsall will have Conn prepared after LW’s scare and look for the Huskies to avenge LY’s loss

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 9 2008 7:11pm
8. 0 likes

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (219) PITTSBURGH vs. (220) CLEVELAND

   Play Under - Any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) - marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing

   a team that had a winning record, in conference games. (89-40 since 1983.) (69.0%, +45 units. Rating=3*).

   The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (4-4). L5 Seasons: (9-8). L10: (27-15).

   1

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (197) NEW ORLEANS vs. (198) WASHINGTON

   Play Against - Home teams (WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, first month of the season, after

   closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. (23-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.2%, +18.6

   units. Rating=3*).

   The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (7-1). L5 Seasons: (11-2). Since 1983: (51-25).

   2

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (211) MIAMI vs. (212) ARIZONA

   Play On - Road teams (MIAMI) - off a home loss against a division rival, in the first month of the season, after closing

   out last season with 2 or more straight losses. (36-11 since 1983.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating=3*).

   The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (1-1). L5 Seasons: (2-3). L10: (9-4)

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (205) BUFFALO vs. (206) JACKSONVILLE

   JACKSONVILLE is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The average

   score was JACKSONVILLE 28.5, OPPONENT 21 - (Rating = 5*)

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (207) ATLANTA vs. (208) TAMPA BAY

   TAMPA BAY is 26-6 UNDER (+19.4 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. The average score was

   TAMPA BAY 15.2, OPPONENT 14.8 - (Rating = 4*

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (195) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (196) MINNESOTA

   INDIANAPOLIS is 21-5 OVER (+15.5 Units) in road games off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992. The average

   score was INDIANAPOLIS 25.6, OPPONENT 27.5 - (Rating = 3

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (203) NY GIANTS vs. (204) ST LOUIS

   Scott Linehan is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) in September games as the coach of ST LOUIS. The average score was

   Linehan 11.1, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 3*)

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (215) BALTIMORE vs. (216) HOUSTON

   BALTIMORE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE

   12.4, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 3*)

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (211) MIAMI vs. (212) ARIZONA

   MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MIAMI

   15.9, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 2*)

   Monday, 09/15/2008: (221) PHILADELPHIA vs. (222) DALLAS

   Andy Reid is 75-43 ATS (+27.7 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average

   score was Reid 22.7, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 2*)

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (213) NEW ENGLAND vs. (214) NY JETS

   Bill Belichick is 46-22 ATS (+21.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of

   NEW ENGLAND. The average score was Belichick 24.3, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 3*)

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (207) ATLANTA vs. (208) TAMPA BAY

   TAMPA BAY is 42-19 UNDER (+21.1 Units) in the first month of the season since 1992. The average score was TAMPA

   BAY 17, OPPONENT 16.3 - (Rating = 2*)

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (199) GREEN BAY vs. (200) DETROIT

   The HOME TEAM is 27-7 SU & 24-8 ATS in GREEN BAY-DETROIT series since ‘92.

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (213) NEW ENGLAND vs. (214) NY JETS

   The ROAD TEAM is 13-7 SU & 16-3 ATS in L20 games of NEW ENGLAND-NY JETS series.

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (191) OAKLAND vs. (192) KANSAS CITY

   The ROAD TEAM is 15-4 ATS in OAKLAND-KANSAS CITY series since ‘98.

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (217) SAN DIEGO vs. (218) DENVER

   The FAVORITE is 17-5 SU & 14-6 ATS in SAN DIEGO-DENVER series since ‘97.

   Sunday, 09/14/2008: (207) ATLANTA vs. (208) TAMPA BAY

   The FAVORITE is 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in ATLANTA-TAMPA BAY series since ‘95.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 9 2008 7:40pm
9. 0 likes

   Home Teams Winning or Losing Close Game in Week 1

   - Home teams in week 2 that won their opening game by three or

   less points are

   12-7 ATS (63%).

   Plays for ‘08: Carolina

   Road Teams Winning or Losing Close Game in Week 1

   - Road teams in week 2 that lost their opening game by three or

   less points are

   11-7 ATS (61%).

   Plays for ‘08: San Diego

   Home Teams Winning or Losing a Double-Digit Game in

   Week 1

   - Home teams that lost the opener by a double-digit margin are

   14-22 ATS (39%)

   in their week 2 game.

   Plays for ‘08: AGAINST Detroit, AGAINST St. Louis, AGAINST

   Seattle, AGAINST Houston, AGAINST Cleveland

   Home or Road Team Scoring Differential from Week 1

   Results

   - Road teams with a scoring differential of over 30 points better

   from week 1 than the home team are

   12-5 ATS (71%) in week 2.

   Plays for ‘08: NY Giants, Buffalo, Pittsburgh

   Home Teams That Scored or Allowed Less than 10 Points

   in Week 1

   - Home teams that allowed fewer than 10 points in their first game

   are

   11-5 ATS (67%) in the week 2 contest, including 5-0 ATS as

   double-digit favorites.

   Plays for ‘08: NONE

   Home Teams That Scored or Allowed 35 or more Points in

   Week 1

   - Home teams that allowed more than 35 points in their first game

   are 2-14 ATS (13%) in the week 2 contest, including

   0-4 ATS

   (0%) as an underdog.

   Plays for ‘08: AGAINST St. Louis, AGAINST Houston

   Road Teams That Scored or Allowed more than 35 Points in

   Week 1

   - Week 2 road teams that scored

   more than 35 points in their

   opening contest are just

   6-10

   ATS (38%).

   Plays for ‘08: AGAINST

   Pittsburgh, AGAINST

   Philadelphia

   Combo Angle – Road Team Allowed 10 Points or less and

   Home Team Scored 10 or less in Week 1

   - Road teams that allowed 10 or fewer points in week 1 are

   6-3-1

   ATS (67%) in week 2 when facing an opponent who scored 10 or

   fewer in its opening contest.

   Plays for ‘08: NY Giants

   Combo Angle – Home Team Allowed 10 Points or less and

   Road Team Scored less than 20 in Week 1

   - Home teams that allowed 10 or fewer points in week 1 are

   9-2

   ATS (82%) in week 2 when matched against an opponent who

   scored less than 20 in its opening contest.

   Plays for ‘08: NONE

   Combo Angle – Home Team Allowed 35 Points or more and

   Road Team Scored more than 14 in Week 1

   - Home teams that allowed 35 or more points in week 1 are

   2-11

   ATS (15%) in week 2 when matched against an opponent who

   scored more than 14 points in its opening contest.

   Plays for ‘08: AGAINST St Louis, AGAINST Houston

   Home Underdogs in Week 2

   - Home underdogs in week 2 that are matched against an

   opponent that scored more than 35 points in week 1 are

   6-3 ATS

   (67%).

   Plays for ‘08: Cleveland

   - Home underdogs in week 2 going up against an opponent who

   yielded less than 17 points in its opening game are just

   7-10 ATS

   (41%).

   Plays for ‘08: AGAINST Cincinnati, AGAINST St Louis

   In all, we have 16 week 2 NFL pointspread carryover angles with

   success rates of 61% or better, or 41% or worse. Don’t forget

   though, of our list of teams qualifying for the angles, the Monday

   night results of a week ago are not included, so be sure to add

   those games if any of the four teams (Minnesota, Green Bay,

   Denver, Oakland) apply. You should be on your way to a great

   weekend of NFL betting.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 9 2008 7:42pm
10. 0 likes

    THE GOLD SHEET

    VOLUME 52 SEPTEMBER 11 - 15, 2008 NO. 3

    NFL ANALYSIS

    Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the

    following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes

    attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader

    is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series.

    P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number

    of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they

    met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star (H).

    Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game,

    when listed in score line). “O”—Offense. “D”—Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or

    Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—

    Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions.

    ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—

    Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years.

    TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best

    rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

    All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please

    note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog

    as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread

    on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.

    KEY RELEASES

    KANSAS CITY by 14 over Oakland

    TAMPA BAY by 20 over Atlanta

    OVER THE TOTAL in the Chicago-Carolina game

    SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

    􀂋􀂋􀂋KANSAS CITY 24 - Oakland 10—Third start overall and first on the

    road for JaMarcus Russell, who will experience the unique “pleasure” of trying

    to direct his team amid the cacophany of arguably the NFL’s noisiest stadium.

    Brodie Croyle (0-7 as a starter; check status) finally beginning to face opposing

    QBs with even less experience than his own. Raider RBs (Fargas, McFadden,

    Bush) imposing, but Oakland OL and WRs not. Will count on improving young

    Chiefs’ defense and K.C.’s crowd to fluster Russell into mistakes.

    (07-K. City 12-OAK. 10...K.14-10 K.32/126 O.24/55 O.18/29/1/213 K.16/32/1/164 K.0 O.1)

    (07-Oak. 20-K. CITY 17...O.19-18 K.37/164 O.29/153 O.15/22/0/159 K.12/23/1/128 O.1 K.0)

    (07-Kansas City +2' 12-10, Oakland +4' 20-17...SR: Kansas City 52-44-2)

    CINCINNATI 16 - Tennessee 13—Situation hardly comforting these days

    in Cincy, where problems are running a bit deeper than the NFL disallowing

    “Ocho Cinco” on jersey of the artist formerly known as Chad Johnson. Getting

    its ground game in gear (Chris Perry only a puny 2.1 ypc in first game as Rudi

    Johnson’s replacement) might be easier said than done vs. stout Tennessee

    run defense. But Titans not looking especially explosive themselves, with

    Vince Young (knee) and speedy rookie RB Chris Johnson both injured last

    week (check status). “Under” might be a better idea.

    (07-CINCY 35-Ten. 6...C.30-10 C.36/148 T.18/61 C.32/38/1/278 T.19/31/1/244 C.0 T.1)

    (07-CINCINNATI +1 35-6...SR: Tennessee 38-32-1)

    Indianapolis 27 - MINNESOTA 16—Indy run defense will give up a bunch

    of yards to Adrian Peterson, but its pass rush and ball-hawking secondary

    should prove major problems for young Vike QB Tarvaris Jackson, especially

    with LT McKinnie serving second game of his suspension. Moreover, 32ndranked

    Minny pass defense must prove it can contain Peyton Manning, who

    should be less rusty and quicker on his feet after opening-game loss.

    Remember, however, that the rebuilt interior of the Colts’ OL must deal with the

    granite-like Williams-Williams DT duo of the Vikes. Minny only 2-5 last 7 as

    home dog.

    (04-INDIANAPOLIS -7 31-28...SR: Indianapolis 14-7-1)

    New Orleans 24 - WASHINGTON 17—When is Jason Campbell going to

    start resembling a real No. 1 QB in the NFL? The fact he’s absorbing his

    seventh offensive system in eight years (at Auburn, then Washington) has

    something to do with it. Campbell appears far from mastery of Jim Zorn’s

    version of the West Coast system, especially if Campbell’s stuttering opening

    performance vs. the Giants is any indication. Even with Deuce McAllister’s

    return to active duty on hold due to lingering knee issues, there’s a lot more

    offensive competence on New Orleans, especially with Drew Brees (343 YP &

    3 TDP vs. Bucs) apparently in midseason form.

    (06-Washington +9' 16-10...SR: Washington 14-7)

    DETROIT 23 - Green Bay 16—First road start for Aaron Rodgers, with

    Packers only 5-5 SU their last 10 trips to the Motor City. Without Favre’s help

    with the offense, more is likely to be asked of the Packer defense TY, with CBs

    Al Harris and Charles Woodson facing younger and more-physical Detroit

    WRs Roy Smith and Calvin Johnson. Lions’ defense still has holes, as

    Falcons (474 total yards) exposed last week. But is Rodgers ready yet to

    exploit them? We’ll say no.

    (07-G. Bay 37-DET. 26...25-25 D.30/134 G.17/100 G.31/41/0/381 D.19/40/1/197 G.1 D.0)

    (07-G. BAY 34-Det. 13...G.19-16 G.38/217 D.17/47 D.22/48/2/246 G.16/26/0/177 G.1 D.0)

    (07-Green Bay -3' 37-26, GREEN BAY -4' 34-13...SR: Green Bay 86-64-7

    􀂋􀂋􀂋OVER THE TOTAL Chicago 27 - CAROLINA 26—Kudos to Steve

    Smith-less Carolina and to Jake Delhomme (and his surgeons) for their lastplay

    victory at San Diego. However, the running of rookie Matt Forté (123 yards)

    and the nearly-mistake-free play of Kyle Orton (13 of 21, no ints.) was a big

    boost not only to the Bear offense, but to the Chicago defense, which was both

    injured and overworked LY. Must be impressed with Lovie’s depth on the DL

    especially with DTs Harris and Dvoracek both healthy, plus impressive thirdround

    pick Marcus Harrison of Arkansas. With Jake back for Panthers,

    however, will look “over” again in Charlotte.

    (05-CAROLINA +3 13-3, Carolina +2' 29-21 (Playoffs)...SR: EVEN 2-2)

    NY Giants 23 - ST. LOUIS 10—Maybe St. Louis isn’t as bad as it looked in

    its opener at Philly. Then again, maybe it is! After all, it was no secret Rams’

    banged-up OL was a mess, and that Steven Jackson might be rusty after his

    holdout and hamstring woes kept him out of preseason. Without much pass

    rush to bother Eli Manning, it’s hard to see the overworked Ram defense

    compensating for any offensive shortcomings. Meanwhile, the re-tooled

    Giants’ stop unit looked just fine, with d.c. Steve Spagnuolo still having plenty

    quality athletes available. The G-men were supreme road warriors LY, winning

    their last 11 away from Meadowlands (10-1 vs. line!)!

    (05-NY GIANTS -3 44-24...SR: St. Louis 26-13)

    JACKSONVILLE 17 - Buffalo 16—Not sure we trust Jacksonville to

    recover from its ugly 17-10 opening loss at Tennessee, especially with OL

    injuries mounting alarmingly (three more hurt vs. Titans, not to mention top

    backup Richard Collier’s absence due to gunshot wounds) and protection

    breaking down for David Garrard, sacked 7 times in Nashville. New WRs Jerry

    Porter (hamstring) & Troy Williamson yet to provide the deep threat intended.

    Buffalo’s’ offense has more bite now that second-year QB Edwards reading

    defenses more quickly. Dynamic Bills’ ST helped scuttle Seattle in opener.

    (07-JACK. 36-Buf. 14...J.21-20 J.26/124 B.24/94 J.23/37/0/292 B.27/40/2/203 J.1 B.1)

    (07-JACKSONVILLE -8' 36-14...SR: EVEN 4-4)

    􀂋􀂋􀂋TAMPA BAY 26 - Atlanta 6—A rookie QB (Matt Ryan) on a rebuilding

    team (Atlanta) with a rookie head coach (Mike Smith) is NOT a good

    combination for facing the most-developed of the usually-confusing, two-deep,

    zone-blitz defenses now simply dubbed the “Tampa Two” scheme throughout

    football. Especially with that combination on the road, and especially when the

    Bucs dominated the Falcs LY (before Michael Turner, however), winning twice

    by a total score of 68-10! T.B. offense perfectly average (worse than average

    if Jeff Garcia & Joey Galloway not in tune), but stop unit expert at producing

    opponent mistakes.

    (07-T. Bay 31-ATL. 7...15-15 T.31/149 A.19/49 A.31/48/2/226 T.11/21/0/156 T.2 A.2)

    (07-T. BAY 37-Atl. 3...T.21-5 T.48/190 A.20/106 T.15/25/1/95 A.4/15/2/27 T.0 A.2)

    (07-Tampa Bay -3 31-7, TAMPA BAY -12' 37-3...SR: Tampa Bay 17-12)

    SEATTLE 27 - San Francisco 13—Seattle’s WR situation getting

    desperate, especially after Nate Burleson (knee; check status) was shelved in

    the Buffalo game after Bobby Engram, Deion Branch, and Ben Obamanu were

    already out with injury. RB Maurice Morris (knee) also hurting. However,

    Seattle’s resiliency when returning home—where Seahawks are 19-8-1 vs.

    spread last 28 games—should not be underestimated. Nor should the QB edge

    and coaching edge owned by the host. Niners fall behind too early, too often to

    be trusted.

    (07-Sea. 23-S. FRAN. 3...Se.17-9 Sf.19/109 Se.37/93 Se.23/32/1/278 Sf.12/34/2/75 Se.0 Sf.1)

    (07-SEA. 24-S. Fran. 0...Se.27-6 Se.36/106 Sf.16/79 Se.27/40/1/274 Sf.12/28/0/94 Se.1 Sf.2)

    (07-Seattle -2 23-3, SEATTLE -9' 24-0...SR: Seattle 10-8)

    ARIZONA 20 - Miami 17—After six losses by a FG LY, Miami battled Brett

    Favre and the Jets on pretty even terms for much of last week’s opener,

    showing enough positives to make them worth a look. Rushing attack should

    improve as LT Jake Long develops and Ricky Williams & Ronnie Brown get

    back in the groove. Chad Pennington quickly gaining rapport with TEs Anthony

    Fasano & David Martin. Kurt Warner a savvy—but not mobile—field general.

    (04-Arizona +3 24-23...SR: Miami 8-1)

    NY JETS 23 - New England 13—It took less than one quarter for the Super

    Bowl runner-up jinx to click in, with Tom Brady felled by a major knee injury.

    Now, the question is whether the proud Patriots, suddenly finding themselves

    underdogs for the first time since the 2006 playoffs, will rise up behind Matt

    Cassel (13 of 18, 1 TD in opener; Chris Simms and others to get tryouts this

    week). However, the truth is N.E.’s OL, ground game, and—at times—the

    defense were beginning to disappoint. Mangini’s Jets have always played

    Belichick tough; Favre vs. Cassel might now be the difference.

    (07-N. Eng. 38-JETS 14...Ne.28-17 Ne.37/134 Ny.19/60 Ne.22/28/0/297 Ny.21/31/0/167 Ne.0 Ny.0)

    (07-N. ENG. 20-Jets 10...Ne.16-13 Ne.35/131 Ny.17/90 Ny.25/40/1/146 Ne.14/27/1/134 Ne.0 Ny.1)

    (07-New England -6' 38-14, NEW ENGLAND -21 20-10...SR: EVEN 48-48-1)

    HOUSTON 24 - Baltimore 13—Will side with the up and down nature of the

    NFL, as Houston is desperate to avoid an 0-2 start. Baltimore rookie QB Joe

    Flacco avoided major mistakes (no sacks, no ints.) in opener, plus running for

    a 38-yard TD! But Raven defense, which stuffed troubled Cincy (154 total

    yards), faces a tougher task vs. Houston, especially with Andre Johnson (10

    recs. in opener) flashing his 2006 form. Baltimore 0-8 vs. spread on road LY (0-

    4 as dog).

    (05-BALTIMORE -8 16-15...SR: Baltimore 2-0)

    San Diego 23 - DENVER 13—Are the Chargers still stunned after their lastplay

    loss on opening day? If nothing else, the setback to Carolina should

    remind them of their agonizing 1-3 start LY before they straightened things out.

    Feeling here is S.D. doesn’t want a repeat of that early-season frustration.

    Even with WR Brandon Marshall (102 recs. LY) back from suspension for

    Denver, and Charger LB Shawne Merriman limited, S.D. roster much deeper in

    impact players. Broncs totaled six points in two meetings LY.

    (07-S. Diego 41-DEN. 3...S.20-17 S.37/214 D.20/72 S.13/18/0/270 D.23/36/1/224 S.0 D.2)

    (07-S. DIEGO 23-Den. 3...S.18-12 S.38/147 D.19/92 S.18/28/0/187 D.14/32/2/133 S.1 D.1)

    (07-San Diego +1 41-3, SAN DIEGO -9 23-3...SR: Denver 52-43-1)

    *Pittsburgh 31 - CLEVELAND 20—Steelers have dominated the series in

    recent years, going 9-0 SU, 7-1-1 vs. the spread, and 4-0-1 vs. the number in

    Cleveland. The Browns’ only loss at home LY was vs. Pittsburgh (in the opener

    with Charlie Frye starting). Now, Cleveland’s defense in question after multiple

    Game One failures vs. Dallas. The Steelers’ superior running game and

    defense have allowed the Men of Steel to control this matchup. Trust Willie

    Parker and powerful rookie Rashard Mendenhall to help Pittsburgh maintain its

    overland edge. TV—NBC

    (07-Pitt 34-CLE. 7...P.17-13 P.38/202 C.15/40 P.12/23/0/159 C.15/33/1/145 P.1 C.3)

    (07-PITT 31-Cle. 28...P.22-13 P.35/159 C.18/40 P.23/35/1/242 C.16/35/0/123 P.0 C.1)

    (07-Pittsburgh -4' 34-7, PITTSBURGH -10 31-28...SR: Pittsburgh 57-55)

    MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

    *DALLAS 27 - Philadelphia 23—Both impressive in opener, but

    pointspread roomy enough to consider Philly, especially with McNabb &

    Westbrook healthy, the attack invigorated by WR DeSean Jackson (6 for 106

    receiving in opener), and the defense reinforced by former N.E. CB Asante

    Samuel. Eagles play with confidence in Dallas, winning and covering 3 of

    last 4 meetings. Philly also has the pass rushers in quantity that Browns did

    not when Tony Romo had plenty of time to spot his targets last week.

    CABLE TV—ESPN

    (07-Dal. 38-PHIL. 17...D.24-21 D.32/110 P.19/66 D.20/25/1/324 P.27/46/2/250 D.0 P.1)

    (07-Phil. 10-DAL. 6...P.20-11 P.27/134 D.15/53 D.13/36/3/187 P.23/41/0/181 P.1 D.0)

    (07-Dallas -3 38-17, Philadelphia +10 10-6...SR: Dallas 54-43)

    COLLEGE ANALYSIS

    KEY RELEASES

    UCLA by 3 over Byu

    OREGON STATE by 26 over Hawaii

    FRESNO STATE by 11 over Wisconsin

    WASHINGTON Plus over Oklahoma

    THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11

    *RUTGERS 31 - North Carolina 30—Scarlet Knights itching to get in win

    column after dropping home opener vs. Fresno State. Sr. QB Teel will hit some

    big plays to top-notch WRs Britt & Underwood. But Rutgers misses recordsetting

    RB Rice in red zone. Confident Carolina soph QB Yates has

    wherewithal to trade points for full 60 minutes, as Britt & Underwood have

    nothing on Tar Heels’ dynamic WR duo of sr. Tate (397 total yards in opener!)

    and jr. Nicks. TV-ESPN

    (06-Rutg. +4' 21-16...SR: Rutg. 3-0)

    FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

    *SOUTH FLORIDA 23 - Kansas 20—Jayhawks have now covered a

    bankroll-swelling 16 of their last 19 vs. spread! And nifty KU jr. QB Reesing (32

    of 38 for 412 yards) was near flawless during last week’s whitewash of La. Tech.

    USF counterpart Grothe a plenty resourceful field general himself, however,

    and Bulls are 8-2 against line their last 10 in front of burgeoning crowds at

    Tampa. Must get at least a FG to support Jayhawks vs. speedy, swarming USF

    stop unit. CABLE TV—ESPN2

    (06-KANSAS -4 13-7...SR: Kansas 1-0)

    SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

    Navy 38 - DUKE 33—Scouts say Duke jr. triggerman Lewis (23 TDP, only

    10 ints. last 1+ seasons) rapidly maturing under tutelage of new HC & respected

    QB guru Cutcliffe. Still, lean to more confident Navy over success-starved

    Devils, especially if Middies’ slippery starting sr. QB Kaheaku-Enhada (check

    status; missed first 2 games with hamstring) able to make post.

    (07-NAVY 46-Duke 43...N.29-21 N.69/304 D.26/78 D.23/36/1/428 N.13/21/1/236 N.0 D.1)

    (07-NAVY -13' 46-43 06-Navy -10' 38-13 05-Navy -6 28-21...SR: Navy 20-12-5)

    VANDERBILT 31 - Rice 27—HC Bobby Johnson says “the ante has been

    raised” for his Vandy squad, gunning for its first 3-0 start since 1984. Still,

    believe ‘Dores will have a hard time pulling away from a veteran, plucky Rice,

    uplifted by exhilirating last-second, 42-35 win at Memphis. Vandy’s dual threat

    QB Nickson won’t be contained, but Owls will trade most of way behind poised

    sr. QB Clement and duo of WR Dillard (NCAA active leader in catches, yds. &

    TDs) & 23-year-old TE/FB Casey (combined 32 catches so far). Rice has

    covered 6 of past 7 as a dog. (DNP...SR: Vanderbilt 2-1)

    Auburn 26 - MISSISSIPPI ST. 10—After mashing MSU 5 straight times,

    Auburn players say they took Bulldogs “too lightly” prior to LY’s 19-14 upset loss

    on The Plains. Not here. So, willing to lay single-digits with payback-minded

    Tigers, who now possess the aerial game—QB Todd 21 of 31 for 248 YP vs.

    Southern Miss—to balance ground attack. MSU ’s limited QB Carroll (only 11

    TDP, 10 ints. L1+Ys) unable to consistently burn athletic AU 2ndary, while

    Bulldogs bread & butter run game stymied by Tigers fierce front 7 (held Golden

    Eagles star RB Fletcher to a mere 29 YR!).

    (07-Miss. St. 19-AUB. 14...A.16-14 A.46/216 M.43/172 A.12/22/3/107 M.5/18/0/41 M.1 A.2)

    (07-Msu +12' 19-14 06-Aub. -21 34-0 05-AUB. -15 28-0...SR: Auburn 56-23-2)

    AKRON 32 - Ball State 31—Akron QB Jacquemain (67%, 5 TDP, just 1 int.)

    obviously improved this season. The return to form of RB Dennis Kennedy (all-

    MAC in ‘06, injured much of last season), addition of juco WR Deryn Bowser,

    and a vet offensive line have made the Zip spread hum. Respect BSU QB Nate

    Davis (81%) & RB MiQuale Lewis (6.5 ypc), but the Card defense yielded 5.9

    ypc vs. Navy and is vulnerable on front line.

    (05-BALL STATE +3 23-17...SR: EVEN 9-9-1)

    EASTERN MICHIGAN 35 - Toledo 28—Both coming off shellackings at the

    hands of higher-class foes. Toledo’s “D” allowed 40 ppg LY and appears

    unimproved, and Rockets just 3-14 last 17 on the road overall. Vet Eagle QB

    Andy Schmitt and RB Terrence Blevins (7.7 ypc) should find going easier

    against pliable Rocket defense.

    (07-TOLEDO 52-E. Mich. 28...T.26-24 T.44/324 E.44/217 T.17/29/0/276 E.18/34/2/200 T.1 E.0)

    (07-TOLEDO -8 52-28 06-EMU -1 17-13 05-TOLEDO -20' 30-3...SR: Toledo 24-11)

    MISSOURI 52 - Nevada 20—Nevada’s offense (488 yds. last week vs.

    Texas Tech; QB Kaepernick 92 YR & 264 YP) can’t be taken lightly. However,

    defense very vulnerable to big plays. Mizzou WR/RB/KR Jeremy Maclin likely

    to break a few. Meanwhile, Tiger QB Chase Daniel (16 of 17 before departing

    early last week vs. SE Mizzou) nearly prefect if opponents can’t pressure him.

    (FIRST MEETING)

    TEXAS TECH 54 - Smu 23—Mustang QB Bo Levi Mitchell (5 TDP in last

    week’s 47-36 victory over Texas State) is learning June Jones’ pass-happy

    offense quickly. But rebuilding SMU secondary (10 TDP first two games!)

    appears to have light years to go. Mustangs must avoid turnovers or face

    prospect of a near-record day for Graham Harrell & 6-3 WR Michael Crabtree.

    (07-Tex. Tech 49-SMU 9...T.30-15 S.31/115 T.18/80 T.50/66/0/473 S.16/34/2/155 T.0 S.1)

    (07-Texas Tech -9 49-9 06-TEXAS TECH -26 35-3...SR: Texas Tech 29-15)

    NEBRASKA 48 - New Mexico State 20—First game for N.M. State, which

    DNP two weeks ago, then had its opener last week vs. Nicholls State of

    Thibodaux, LA postponed due to Nicholls’ concerns regarding Hurricane

    Gustav. Aggies, with 6-5 sr. Chase Holbrook (70%, 26 TDs, 18 ints. LY) and his

    experienced receivers, should score some. But the undersized NMS defense

    (40 ppg vs. FBS teams LY) is a problem. Ags 1-5 as road dog LY.

    (DNP...SR: Nebraska 2-0)

    􀂋􀂋􀂋Ucla 26 - BYU 23—Dodging last week’s bullet in Seattle temporarily

    keeps BYU’s BCS dreams alive. But remember, BYU wasn’t better than UCLA

    a year ago, when teams split a pair and Cougs were fortunate to survive Las

    Vegas Bowl nailbiter. And despite early injuries piling up for Rick Neuheisel’s

    Bruins, they were resilient enough to overcome Tennessee in opener.

    Emergence of QB Craft gives sage UCLA o.c. Chow (back in old Provo haunt)

    some options, and Bruins’ 11 straight covers in dog role impressive!

    (07-UCLA 27-Byu 17...B.23-15 U.37/110 B.25/44 B.30/53/1/391 U.13/28/1/126 U.0 B.3)

    (07-Byu 17 - Ucla 16...U18-17 U47-162 B.28/34 B.21/35/0/231 U.11/29/1/154 B.1 U.2)

    (07-UCLA -8 27-17; Byu -6 17-16 (Las Vegas Bowl)...SR: UCLA 7-2)

    Oregon 33 - PURDUE 31—Oregon is quickly moving up on “go-with” lists.

    Ducks have already posted a pair of lopsided wins, as HC Mike Bellotti’s offense

    is loaded. QB Justin Roper (69%, 10 ypp) has made Oregon fans forget Dennis

    Dixon just as RB Jeremiah Johnson (shoulder injury; check status) & juco

    LeGarrette Blount (combined 8.3 ypc) have made them forget Jonathan

    Stewart. However, “price” is elevating as Ducks face skillful Boiler QB Painter

    in OU’s toughest test of 2008. (DNP...SR: Purdue 1-0)

    TEXAS 31 - Arkansas 16—Razorbacks, learning the new systems of Bobby

    Petrino, have struggled for much of their first two games, having to come from

    behind to beat Western Illinois and UL-Monroe. However, Arkansas always sky

    high when it plays Texas, and youthful Longhorn secondary still a work in

    progress. Hogs plenty young themselves on defense, but they own far more

    raw talent overall than UT’s first two victims of Florida Atlantic and UTEP.

    REGIONAL TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Texas 55-21)

    Georgia 20 - SOUTH CAROLINA 16—With pointspread rising following

    disparate results, would consider extra value with wounded but angry South

    Carolina (off Vandy loss) in a defensive-oriented series (see Looking for an

    Angle). UGA owns more impressive arsenal with dazzling, tackler-hurdling

    soph RB Moreno (career-best 168 YR vs. CMU), but ‘Cocks blitz packages

    equipped to exploit Dawgs young OL in first acid test of season. If USC’s top

    weapon WR McKinley returns, QB Smelley (233 YP vs. Vandy) & slashing M.

    Davis able to execute some Spurrier-designed “trick” plays. Recommend

    “under” in what figures to be another, loooww-scoring battle.

    07-S. Car. 16-GA. 12...S.21-20 S.34/140 G.31/128 G.19/45/1/213 S.20/31/0/174 S.0 G.0)

    (07-Usc +3' 16-12 06-Uga -3 18-0 05-UGA -18 17-15...SR: Georgia 44-14-2)

    HOUSTON 35 - Air Force 26—Lean to UH squad that’s 15-4 SU at

    Robertson Stadium since 2005 (3 of those losses by combined 10 pts.).

    Fundamentally, Cougs seasoned (and embarrassed) defense able to put 8-9 in

    box vs. AF’s grinding, option attack (Falcon QB Shea attempted only 4 passes

    vs. Wyo) after being “stretched-out” (putting it nicely) by Oklahoma State’s

    explosive, superbly-balanced offense. Look for UH QB Keenum (779 YP so far;

    81 YR vs. Cowboys) to score quickly and often vs. rebuilt, smallish AF 2ndary.

    Tread lightly, since AF has covered 8 straight in reg.-season.

    (FIRST MEETING)

    􀂋􀂋􀂋OREGON STATE 42 - Hawaii 16—Home cooking can’t help but

    agree with OSU after its Stanford & Penn State misadventures. But look hard

    enough and there might be a silver lining for Beavers, as frosh RB Jacquizz

    Rodgers hinting at gamebreaker status, and sr. WRs Stroughter & Morales

    providing reliable targets for QB Moevao. Meanwhile, UH Red Gun a long way

    from past editions, with new HC McMackin juggling QBs Funaki & Graunke and

    rebuilt WR corps in adjustment phase. (06-Oregon State +8 35-32...SR: OSU 4-3)

    􀂋􀂋􀂋FRESNO STATE 32 - Wisconsin 21—We’re still not sure Fresno is

    ready to crash the BCS party or re-establish control of WAC (Boise State is still

    quite formidable), but this rare opportunity to host a major foe is the sort of

    assignment Pat Hill’s Bulldogs have lived for this decade. Granted,

    Wisconsin’s power game will be a challenge, but this is first road start as a

    Badger for QB Evridge, and Wiscy aerial game compromised if key TE Beckum

    still out or still slowed by nagging hamstring. FSU’s QB Brandstater’s

    confidence grows if RB Matthews (163 YR vs. Rutgers) provides necessary

    infantry diversion. REGIONAL TV—ABC (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

    Penn State 42 - SYRACUSE 10—Insiders at Syracuse say last week’s

    humbling home loss to MAC rep Akron has turned beleaguered Orange HC

    Robinson’s seat from hot to sizzling. Meanwhile, negative publicity associated

    with PSU’s frequent off-field problems seems to have engendered an allbusiness

    attitude among Lions on the gridiron. Balanced PSU attack racked up

    1048 yards in first 2 games.

    (DNP...SR: Penn State 40-23-5)

    Michigan 17 - NOTRE DAME 16—Michigan’s transition to the spread under

    Rich Rodriguez took another step in the wrong direction in lackluster effort

    against Miami-O., as the Wolverines’ third-down efficiency has been terrible.

    ND also failed to impress in narrow win over SDS, as Jimmy Clausen’s 3 TD

    passes were mitigated by a pair of interceptions. In what figures to be a lowscoring

    affair, would take any points available. TV—NBC

    (07-MICH. 38-N. Dame 0...M.25-10 M.61/289 N.33/M6 M.7/16/0/90 N.13/22/2/85 M.2 N.2)

    (07-MICH. -8' 38-0 06-Mich. +5 47-21 05-Und +7' 17-10...SR: Michigan 20-14-1)

    IOWA 24 - Iowa State 20—Both offenses off to tremendous starts in first two

    games, as the teams have averaged 43 ppg. Iowa HC Ferentz moved Stanzi

    into the starting QB spot against FIU, and he responded with 8 of 10 passing

    and 3 TDPs. Although both he and Jake Christensen will play, Christensen

    elicted boos from the Hawkeye faithful as his indecisiveness again resulted in

    needless sacks. Iowa State has covered 9 of last 10 in series, and Cyclones are

    getting big plays out of QBs Arnaud (77%) and Bates (leading rusher, 8.1 ypc).

    (07-IOWA ST. 15-Iowa 13...S.17-16 S.39/143 U.34/115 S.21/29/0/157 U.12/23/0/118 S.1 U.0)

    (07-ISU +17' 15-13 06-IOWA -13' 27-17 05-ISU +9' 23-3...SR: Iowa 36-19)

    VIRGINIA TECH 17 - Georgia Tech 14—Sure, Ga. Tech’s new option attack

    a work in progress. But soph QB Nesbitt & soph FB Dwyer (220 YR & 3 TDs on

    7.6 ypc in first 2 games) are very well-suited to the scheme installed by savvy

    former Navy HC Paul Johnson (21-8-1 last 30 as dog!). Plus, it’s not as if host

    Hokies’ sputtering offense (only 68 YP vs. Furman) appears ready for prime

    time. Eager to grab points in anticipated defensive struggle.

    (07-Va. Tech 27-GA. TECH 3...G.13-10 V.46/185 G.26/105 V.22/33/0/296 G.12/29/5/166 V.1 G.1)

    (07-Vtu +2' 27-3 06-Gtu +9' 38-27 05-VTU -10' 51-7...SR: Virginia Tech 3-2)

    CLEMSON 38 - North Carolina State 13—Retooling Clemson OL could

    have some trouble with N.C. State’s athletic front 7. Still, Wolfpack already

    down to 3rd-string QB Beck last week, and limited NCS weaponry pales in

    comparison to Tigers’ substantial cast of speedy playmakers.

    (07-Clem. 42-N. CAR. ST. 20...C.32-15 C.50/340 N.23/55 C.25/39/0/268 N.19/34/3/147 C.0 N.0)

    (07-Clem. -7 42-20 06-CLEM. -17' 20-14 05-Clem. +4' 31-10...SR: Clemson 49-26-1)

    Western Michigan 40 - IDAHO 28—We’re sure Idaho enjoyed a rare chance

    to imitate Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly and play bully role vs. outmanned Idaho State

    last week. But fact is that Vandals on 1-9 spread run, and soph QB Enderle (3

    picks in opener vs. Arizona) still prone to mistakes. Would rather trust WMU’s

    established jr. QB Hiller (45 TDP, 19 ints. career) and RB West to fire majority

    of scoring shots at Kibbie Dome.

    (DNP...SR: Western Michigan 1-0)

    *OHIO 27 - Central Michigan 26—After losing (but covering) in the altitude

    of Wyoming and the “Big Horshoe” in Columbus, Ohio will be primed to get its

    first win returning home. Defending MAC champ CMU is loaded offensively

    again with league MVP QB Dan LeFevour. However, can’t help but be

    impressed with Bobcats’ effort against the Buckeyes (led in 4th Q). Ohio HC

    Solich has a veteran 2ndary, but shoulder injury of QB Theo Scott (check

    status) might be a problem (backup “Boo” Jackson threw 3 picks vs. Buckeyes).

    (06-Cmu -3' 31-10 at Detroit 05-CMU -6 37-10...SR: Central Michigan 19-4-2)

    *California 27 - MARYLAND 19—After last week’s disparate results, must

    be wary of laying inflated price with enigmatic Cal (only 6-12-1 vs. spread last

    19 as visitor). Can find few reasons to back troubled Maryland (just 9-18 last 27

    on board), however. Terp QBs have completed just 50% with 5 ints. and only

    1 TDP, while burgeoning Bears have blazed their way to 104 points in first 2

    games behind quick-striking RBs Best & Vereen (combined 492 YR on 8.8 ypc,

    including 3 TDs of 80+ yards!). (FIRST MEETING)

    *BAYLOR 27 - Washington State 23—New regimes for both teams.

    Washington State stepping down in class after big losses by combined score of

    105-16 (!) vs. Oklahoma State and Cal. So Baylor’s psyche much better after

    unleashing true frosh spread offense QB Robert “Rambo”Griffin, who passed

    for 3 TDs and ran for 42 yards in his first-start, 51-6 demolition of Northwestern

    State (6-5 LY). Cougars averaging only 182 ypg of offense with shaky QBing.

    (06-WASHINGTON ST. -13 17-15 at Seattle...SR: Baylor 3-2)

    *TCU 27 - Stanford 20—Lopsided loss at Arizona State indicates Jim

    Harbaugh’s Stanford not quite ready for prime time. But upon closer inspection,

    Cardinal can likely slow down TCU’s voracious blitzers with improved infantry

    provided by slamming RB Gerhart, who’s added a power-run dimension not

    seen on the Farm since days of “Touchdown” Tommy Vardell. And there are

    enough playmakers on vet Tree “D” to keep Frogs’ dinking soph QB Dalton from

    causing major damage.

    (07-Tcu 38-STAN. 36...T.29-27 S.49/170 T.48/150 T.23/34/0/344 S.15/30/0/194 T.1 S.0)

    (07-Tcu -6 38-36...SR: TCU 1-0)

    *BUFFALO 30 - Temple 20—Key MAC East Division battle between former

    doormats turned contenders. Substantial rush edge owned by host Bulls &

    hard-charging jr. RB Starks. Will Temple let disappointment of last week’s

    depressing double-OT home loss to UConn linger?

    (07-Buf. 42-TEMPLE 7...B.21-10 B.45/224 T.25/M36 B.20/22/1/190 T.15/27/2/177 B.2 T.1)

    (07-Buffalo +3' 42-7 06-BUFFALO -6 9-3 (OT)...SR: Buffalo 3-0)

    *TENNESSEE 48 - Uab 13—After fuming Phil Fulmer called UT’s bitter 27-

    24 OT loss at UCLA “unacceptable,” expect UT to come out smoking vs.

    overmatched UAB, just 2-6 last 8 as a DD dog. Vols green but skillful QB

    Crompton & his star-studded cast should have its way vs. “invisible” Blazer

    defense that has allowed a whopping 94 pts. vs. non-BCS squads Tulsa and

    Florida Atlantic. Resilient Vols (6-1-1 vs. spread last 8 following SU loss)

    seeking a stifling defensive effort in preparation for visit from Tim Tebow & Co.

    next week. (05-TENNESSEE -22 17-10...SR: Tennessee 2-0)

    *East Carolina 26 - TULANE 16—After last week’s impressive beat-down of

    highly-ranked West Virginia, ECU is now 28-11 vs. spread since Skip Holtz took

    helm! ‘Nuff said? Maybe. But no surprise if Pirates have hard time reaching

    emotional peak for trip to lightly-regarded Tulane, which showed a lot of moxie

    on defense in 20-6 loss at Alabama.

    (07-E. CAR. 35-Tulane 12...E.22-17 E.46/219 T.32/108 T.20/38/1/228 E.14/21/0/222 E.2 T.1)

    (07-EAST CAROLINA -12' 35-12...SR: East Carolina 7-2)

    *Memphis 35 - MARSHALL 33—Tigers down in the dumps after blowing 15-

    point 4th-Q lead in home loss to Rice, which scored winning TD on long int.

    return with less than a minute left in game. Substantial edge to hale & hardy

    Memphis aerial attack and its plethora of rangy receiving targets. However,

    host Thundering Herd has more defensive resolve and runs ball better.

    (07-MEM. 24-Mar. 21...Ma.25-24 Ma.34/185 Me.35/99 Me.30/46/0/346 Ma.23/32/1/220 Me.0 Ma.1)

    (07-MEM. -2' 24-21 06-MAR. -9' 41-27 05-MEM. -10' 26-3...SR: Memphis 2-1)

    *CONNECTICUT 21 - Virginia 16—Home-field advantage significant for

    UConn, which is 13-4 vs. spread at Hartford since 2005. But limited QB

    Lorenzen (4 ints., no TDP in first 2 games) having hard time balancing Husky

    offense. Although UVa counterpart Lalich struggling as well, Cavaliers possess

    very veteran LBs and enough rushing to take this one the distance.

    (07-VA. 17-Conn. 16...C.17-16 V.44/148 C.33/78 V.15/25/2/184 C.17/33/0/176 V.1 C.2)

    (07-VIRGINIA -3 17-16...SR: Virginia 1-0)

    􀂋􀂋􀂋WASHINGTON 27 - Oklahoma 38—Rest assured U-Dub’s end zone

    celebrations will be about as subdued as one of Bob Schieffer’s “Face the

    Nation” interviews after last week’s costly penalty on Jake Locker at the death

    of the game vs. BYU. And though Huskies might not be in a position to level

    matters with OU at the end as they were vs. Cougars, UW proved it could dig

    deep at home and deliver a kamikaze effort for the under-fire, but wellrespected

    Ty Willingham. Tough to trade points with QB Bradford and Sooner

    no-huddle scoring 55 ppg, but OU “D” had some leaks exposed by Cincy last

    week. CABLE TV—ESPN (06-OKLAHOMA -16' 37-20...SR: EVEN 1-1)

    *SOUTHERN CAL 31- Ohio State 17—Although Jim Tressel is likely to keep

    RB Beanie Wells’ injury status as well-guarded a secret as John McCain did his

    Sarah Palin VP nomination, we’re not sure how much difference it will

    eventually make for OSU. After all, SC athletically similar to the SEC powers

    that have blasted Buckeyes in past two BCS title games, and word is that Pete

    Carroll positively giddy about Troy’s restructured OL and emerging WR corps

    that made life so easy for QB Sanchez (3 TDP) in one-sided opener at Virginia.

    OSU’s chances might be better in possible January bowl meeting (maybe a

    rematch in BCS title game?) with a healthy Beanie and with frosh QB Pryor’s

    likely ascension to gamebreaker status by season’s end. But for now, slowish

    QB Boeckman and the very green Pryor likely overmatched by Trojan defensive

    quicks. TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Southern Cal 11-9-1)

    *Arizona 34 - NEW MEXICO 17—Hey, if Joe Lieberman can jump the

    Senate aisle and support “the maverick,” why can’t Arizona football make a

    change, too? Wildcats no longer appear an unreliable chalk proposition after

    pair of blowout wins, and revenge motive strong for QB Tuitama & UA spread

    offense that wasted 446-yard passing effort in LY’s upset loss vs. UNM. Lobo

    “O” still seeking traction, as rebuilt OL and new WR corps making life difficult in

    early going for QB Porterie.

    (07-N. Mex. 29-ARIZ. 27...A.25-24 N.39/94 A.21/38 A.30/53/1/446 N.29/42/1/327 N.1 A.2)

    (07-New Mexico +9' 29-27...SR: Arizona 43-19-3)

    *BOISE STATE 48 - Bowling Green 23—Though BSU has major lookahead

    at Oregon next week, that won’t dissuade us from supporting rested, BCS-bowl

    seeking Broncos, who’ve been 72% play on the “blue carpet” over the last

    decade. BSU’s frosh phenom, southpaw QB K. Moore (HC Peterson calls him

    the best frosh QB he’s seen at BSU since 2001!), RB I. Johnson (yes, he’s still

    around!), and a deep, speedy WR corps should go wild vs. a wound-licking BG

    defense that yielded 42 points vs. Minnesota at home last week.

    (05-BOISE STATE -7' 48-20...SR: Boise State 1-0)

    *Utah 45 - UTAH STATE 14—Not much of a rivalry lately (Utah has easily

    covered last 4 trips to Logan), so don’t mind laying somewhat inflated price

    following Utah State’s 66-24 debacle at Oregon. Utes multi-skilled QB B.

    Johnson (305 YP vs. Michigan; 80 YR vs. UNLV) will further demoralize sievelike

    Aggie defense, tired from chasing (but not tackling) Duck RBs (408 YR in

    53 tries). USU 1-5 as DD home dog since ‘03.

    (07-UTAH 34-Utah St. 18...U.16-15 U.36/144 S.46/136 U.18/29/2/181 S.17/24/0/139 U.0 S.1)

    (07-UTAH -21' 34-18 06-Utah -20 48-0 05-UTAH -24' 31-7...SR: Utah 75-28-4)

    *SAN JOSE STATE 28 - San Diego State 16—Tempted to “buy” on SDSU

    and hot RS frosh QB Lindley after near-miss at Notre Dame, but such teases

    have been commonplace for Chuck Long’s Aztecs. Besides, we’re not sure

    Irish are any better than SJSU, which rediscovered its infantry (137 YR) at

    Nebraska and had Huskers on ropes until late KO of Cal transfer QB Reed,

    who’s expected to be ready. Dick Tomey’s Spartans have provided good value

    at home (9-1 vs. line last 10).

    (06-SJS +2' 31-10 05-SDS -14 52-21...SR: San Jose State 17-15-2)

    *ARIZONA STATE 47 - Unlv 17—With Georgia showdown on deck, Dennis

    Erickson could be excused for keeping ASU under wraps. That, however,

    wouldn’t be in character either for him or Sun Devils, who have covered 10 of last

    11 laying DDs at Tempe. ASU attack and QB Carpenter (733 YP first two)

    looked in midseason form last week vs. Stanford, and UNLV’s 2nd-half collapse

    at Utah (never mind backdoor cover) reminiscent of previous Reb road

    meltdowns under Mike Sanford. (FIRST MEETING)

    ADDED GAMES

    MICHIGAN STATE 42 - Florida Atlantic 20—After struggling against Cal,

    MSU RB Javon Ringer made E. Michigan pay with 5 rush TDs last week. Fla.

    Atlantic has had major problems against high-level foes, dropping 11 of last 12

    spread decisions when getting double-digits out of Sun Belt, yielding 52 pts. to

    Texas, 59 to Florida, 45 to Kentucky, 35 to South Florida and 42 to Oklahoma

    State in recent chances. Look for Ringer to rip and for Spartan QB Bobby Hoyer

    to regain form facing FAU “D” that yielded 34 pts. & 483 yds. to toothless UAB

    offense. (FIRST MEETING)

    ALABAMA 37 - Western Kentucky 14—Though Bama players might be

    motivated by some booing during listless 20-6 win vs. Tulane (following

    emotion-draining win vs. Clemson), still reluctant to lay heavy lumber with Tide

    squad that’s been a steady money-burner as chalk (see Looking for an Angle).

    WKU’s athletic 6-4 soph QB Black (266 total yds. in opener) & RB Hayden (1237

    YR last 1+Ys) able to make enough plays to stay within roomy number.

    (FIRST MEETING)

    *ARKANSAS STATE 28 - Southern Miss 24—Scouts impressed by focus

    shown by blossoming ASU under respected HC Steve Roberts, as Red Wolves

    followed upset win at A&M in opener with 83-point outburst vs. Texas Southern.

    USM still assimilating new mentor Fedora’s offense, so side with happenin’

    host’s resourceful jr. QB Leonard & tough-to-tackle jr. RB Arnold (1675 YR on

    6.7 ypc in last 17 games).

    (07-S. MISS 16-Ark. St. 10...19-19 A.42/242 S.46/177 S.13/24/1/123 A.9/23/1/118 S.1 A.1)

    (07-USM -14 16-10 05-Usm -16' 31-19 (New Orleans Bowl)...SR: Southern Miss 7-3)

    *KENTUCKY 26 - Middle Tennessee State 17—SEC observers raving

    about quick-footed Kentucky stop unit (Cats allowing a Tim Lincecum ERA-like

    2.5 ppg thru first two games!), but there’s nothing too dynamic about o.c. Joker

    Phillips’ rebuilt Wildcat attack that’s still adjusting to new QB Hartline.

    Meanwhile, jr. QB Craddock emerging as effective leader for MTSU, and Blue

    Raider confidence soaring for another shot at a “big boy” after dominating

    Maryland last week.

    (DNP...SR: Kentucky 1-0)

    *ILLINOIS 48 - La.-Lafayette 16—Illinois’ defense was laid open by E. Illinois

    RB Bess (183 YR), and Lafayette has some weapons in QB Michael

    Desormeaux (1141 YR LY) & RB Tyrell Fenroy (1021) to do similar damage.

    However, leary of backing Ragin’ Cajun defense that yielded 633 yds. at

    Southern Miss and is now facing explosive Illini attack that’s scored 89 pts. in

    first two games and is 4-1 last 5 laying double digits.

    (FIRST MEETING)

    *LSU 51 - North Texas 13—Bayou Bengals DNP vs. Troy last week after

    Hurricane Gustav messed things up a bit in Baton Rouge, so this game

    becomes a key tuneup for LSU’s young QBs before next week’s visit to

    defensively-staunch Auburn. Tulsa led North Texas 42-10 at the half last week,

    at Denton. Main question in this one is when HC Miles will ease up with his

    starters before imminent SEC West opener.

    (05-LSU -44 56-3...SR: LSU 3-0)

    WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

    *LOUISVILLE vs. Kansas State—Check out our website on Tuesday,

    September 16 at http://www.goldsheet.com [goldsheet.com]">www.goldsheet.com for our analysis of this game.

    TV—ESPN2

    (06-Louisville -14 24-6...SR: Louisville 1-0)

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 10 2008 2:31pm
11. 0 likes

    Confidential Kick-Off!!

    The Gold Sheet!!

    America’s Handicapping Leaders For Over 50 Seasons!

    CKO Vol. 47 Sep. 11--Sept. 15, 2008 No. 3

    CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS

    * - Denotes Home Team

    RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

    11 *MICHIGAN STATE over Fla. Atlantic

    Late Score Forecast:

    *MICHIGAN STATE 45 - Fla. Atlantic 17

    Michigan State HC Mark Dantonio has the Spartan program headed in the right direction, as the team has covered 8 of last 12 after a bit of a slow start to his tenure early last season. MSU showed itself to be a bit of a bully last week in manhandling Eastern Michigan 42-10 behind future pro RB Javon Ringer's 5 TDs. Expect MSU QB Brian Hoyer to regain form as he gains rapport with RS frosh WR B.J. Cunningham (8 recs., 17.4 ypc) and vet Mark Dell transitions into his new "go-to" guy to replace Devin Thomas. Florida Atlantic has not been competitive as a big underdog outside of the Sun Belt, dropping 11 of its last 12 spread decisions as a double-digit dog against non-conference foes, with an average margin of defeat of more than 37 points. Owl HC Schnellenberger will take the paycheck and focus on winning the Sun Belt.

    10 *SOUTHERN CAL over Ohio State

    Late Score Forecast:

    *SOUTHERN CAL 37 - Ohio State 16

    Southern Cal has made a habit of covering against non-conference foes the last two seasons, covering 8 of last 9 encounters outside Pac-10 play, with the only spread loss coming as a 47-point favorite. The Trojans appear to be as good as advertised, as QB Mark Sanchez' knee appears sound and he was very sharp against the Cavs. Obviously, facing Ohio State is a step up for USC, but the Buckeyes have some questions entering this game. The biggest and most obvious is the health of lead RB "Beanie" Wells. Reporting on Wells' foot injury has been a nightly staple on the Big Ten Network, interesting, since HC Jim Tressel is guarding information on the subject as closely as the Pentagon guards the nuclear launch codes. Buckeye players who were recruited by USC have provided some "locker room" material, but doubt Trojans need more motivation for this game, and they have the better athletes.

    10 *AKRON over Ball State

    Late Score Forecast:

    *AKRON 37 - Ball State 33

    he Gold Sheet's MAC scouts were beating a path to the bookmaker early this week, eager to grab substantial points with Akron in its home opener. The Zips are brimming with confidence following their impressive win at Syracuse last week. Versatile sr. RB Dennis Kennedy (originally at Ohio State) is back to his fine 2006 form after an injury-plagued 2007 campaign. And rapidly-maturing jr. QB Chris Jacquemain (68%, 5 TDP, only 1 int. in first 2 games) now has new troika of targets--touted juco Deryn Bowser, converted DB sr. Andre Jones, and West Virginia transfer Jeremy Bruce (combined 24 catches for 285 yards)--in his WR arsenal. Can't knock potent Ball State offense. But Cardinal defense has plenty of holes, and Akron (6-1 last 7 as dog at Rubber Bowl) will find enough of them to have good chance at springing small upset.

    10 IOWA STATE over *Iowa

    Late Score Forecast:

    IOWA STATE 23 -*Iowa 24

    Long-time Midwest scouts report that upbeat 2-0 Iowa State has clearly shown it has fully integrated the systems and philosophy of knowledgeable 2nd-year HC Gene Chizik, who has also upgraded recruiting. So they urge us to take generous DD spread vs. Iowa squad that hasn't proven much by whipping outclassed Maine and Florida International. Cyclones will continue to effectively rotate soph QBs, 6-3 Arnaud (77%) and athletic, swift 6-1 Bates (138 YR so far), both of whom have shown they can take full advantage of a variety of weapons, including go-to sr. WR Sumrall (54 recs. LY; 8 TY) and versatile soph RB A. Robinson (465 YR & 23 catches last 5 games), who returns to action after missing Kent State with a bruised leg. Rebuilding Hawkeye defense (just 5 starters back; new CBs) will be hard-pressed to contain nicely-balanced, growing ISU attack. Meanwhile, expect Iowa's new starting soph QB Stanzi, who replaces inconsistent jr.Christensen, to make a few miscues vs. maturing, fired-up Cyclone defense, which has limited hated rival to 17 pts. or fewer in 3 of past 4 meetings. History repeats in a bitter rivalry recently dominated by Cyclones, who've covered 9 of past 10!

    10 MIAMI at *Arizona

    Late Score Forecast:

    MIAMI 20 - *Arizona 17

    (Sunday, September 14)

    Expect Miami to improve substantially now that unusual Pennington-vs.-Favre, Dolphins-Jets first game is out of the way. CKO insiders say no-nonsense Dolphin HC Tony Sparano, an OL guru as an assistant, is quite pleased with the potential of the Miami OL, especially rugged rookie top-pick LT Jake Long, second-year C Samson Satele, and powerful former LT-turned-RT Vernon Carey. Thus, expect Dolphins to begin running with more authority as that unit jells in front of hard-running Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Chad Pennington (2 TDP in opener vs. his former team) figures to be a good ball-control caretaker of the offense. So Arizona best not be full of itself after its Game One victory over still-marginal S.F. and QB J.T. O'Sullivan in his first start. Cards 0-5 last 10 years laying more than 7 points!

    TOTALS: UNDER the total in the Michigan-Notre Dame game--Neither offense figures to improve a great deal in just one week. Both coaches leaning on their defenses in early going...OVER (47) in the Philadelphia-Dallas game (Monday Night)--Philly has a healthy QB McNabb & RB Westbrook, and the Cowboys might have the best offense in the NFL.

    HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): KANSAS (+3½) over South Florida (Friday Night)--Kansas is on a 16-3 spread roll, and QB Reesing completed 84% (!) against La Tech last week while UCF took S. Florida to OT...PENN STATE (-26½) over Syracuse--Orangemen showing few signs of life, while explosive Penn State well-focused following off-field distractions...OHIO (+3½) over Central Michigan--See value in backing Bobcats as a home dog. Ohio dropping back into their own class after two tough road losses (but covers) at Wyo & Ohio State...MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (+16½) over Kentucky--Blue Raiders have covered 4 of last 5 outside of Sun Belt play, and QB Joe Craddock has new weapons in frosh WRs McDonald & Beyah. CHICAGO (+3) vs. Carolina--Bears' rookie RB Forte & a healthy LB Urlacher the missing ingredients for Chicago's defense-first, no-mistakes-on-offense, win-with-special-teams Super Bowl formula.

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 10 2008 2:34pm
12. 0 likes

    THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA!!

    Welcome to The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!!!

    VOL. 27 SEPTEMBER 11-15, 2008 NO. 3

    Purchase the CKO:

    THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA!!!...featuring the TECHNICAL REPORT

    TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

    AUBURN

    Revenge is often a dish best served cold, which Auburn plans

    to do Saturday when it invades Starkville to face host Mississippi

    State. Last season, the Tigers were stunned at home by Sly Croom's

    Bulldogs, 19-14, qualifying the return match as featured Painful

    Memory and Power Revenge recommendations for the Plainsmen. Auburn

    has covered 4 of its last 6 in revenge spots for HC Tommy

    Tuberville, whose presence on the sidelines also makes this a Coach

    & Pointspread play for the Tigers. Tuberville's Tigers have fared

    well on the road lately, covering 8 of their last 12, and have won

    and covered big their last 3 as a series visitor at Starkville (all

    wins by 28 or more). And home cooking hasn't worked too well

    lately for MSU, which is only 3-12 vs. the number its last 15 as

    host.

    GEORGIA TECH

    It's no secret that Georgia Tech HC Paul Johnson knows what

    he's doing. Johnson routinely exceeded expectations durng a

    successful 6-year stnt at Navy, and looks to be carrying that same

    success with him to his new gig in Atlanta. Johnson's Midshipmen

    were 16-6-1 vs. the line the last 5 years as an underdog, and

    Johnson picked up the trend without a hitch in his first dog chance

    last Saturday with the Yellow Jackets, not only covering the

    number, but winning outright at Boston College. Johnson looks to

    do more of the same this week at Virginia Tech, and his presence is

    a major reason GT is a featured play in both the College Coach as

    Underdog and Power Underdog systems this week. The Jackets are

    also a recommended Painful Memory play vs. the Hokies.

    SAN JOSE STATE

    Every so often, a few unlikely "pointspread nuggets" can be

    uncovered in unsuspecting places. Take San Jose State, for

    example. Usually flying well under the national radar, the

    Spartans have nonetheless developed a nice pointspread trend at

    home for veteran HC Dick Tomey. And those angles are worth noting

    when San Jose plays host Saturday night to winless San Diego State.

    Simply, the Spartans have developed a solid home field edge,

    covering 9 of their last 10 at Spartan Stadium. And they have

    usually taken care of business when expected under Tomey, covering

    6 of their last 7 as chalk.

    ARIZONA STATE

    Until further notice, we see no reason to jump off Arizona

    State, especially when the Sun Devils are laying points at Tempe,

    which they'll be doing again Saturday night against UNLV. Chopping

    some heavy lumber is no concern, either, considering how ASU has

    covered 6 of its last 7 laying double digits since HC Dennis

    Erickson arrived last season, and 10 of its last 11 in that heavy

    favorite role at home since 2005. And we're not afraid to buck the

    Rebels, who have covered just 4 of their last 18 on the road under

    HC Mike Sanford.

    HOUSTON

    Kudos to Baltimore for its opening week win over Cincinnati

    ...but let's see the Ravens do it again. Especially on the road,

    where Baltimore failed to cover all 8 of its games last season and

    must deal with again this week when traveling to Reliant Stadium

    for a game vs. an angry Houston side. The Texans have paid off

    like a loose slot machine at home for HC Gary Kubiak, covering

    their last 4 and 8 of their last 10 as host.

    EXTRA POINTS

    LOOK OUT BELOW!

    by Bruce Marshall, TGS EXTRA!!! Editor

    As usual, a lot of attention is being paid to teams at the top

    of the polls. But shrewd handicappers have long known that

    wagering bargains can be found at the opposite end of the college

    gridiron spectrum. Specifically, teams on the slide can provide

    outstanding "go against" opportunities. The key, as always, is

    identifying squads in the early stages of such streaks, which is

    one reason we have begun our weekly "pointspread streaks" list in

    the Systems Spotlight panel, featured in this week's TGS EXTRA!

    Although it's early in the campaign, and no team can be on more

    than a 1 or 2-game pointspread streak after last weekend's college

    slate, knowledge of teams starting quickly, or breaking slowly, vs.

    the line can be an important handicapping component, for within

    those ranks are a handful of teams in the initial stages of some

    extended runs (good and bad) vs. the line.

    Following is a quick look at teams that appear in trouble, and

    good candidates for some "go against" recommendations in the coming

    weeks.

    Washington State...Some longtime northwest observers are

    frankly a bit horrified at what they have seen thus far from the

    Cougs, who have been left at the gate for the first two games of

    new HC Paul Wulff's regime. The trashing of Wazzu's long-enduring

    offensive playbook (which was essentially the same from the time

    Wulff played for the Cougs under Dennis Erickson all the way until

    last season) in favor of a new no-huddle attack has been nothing

    short of disastrous in the early going, as new QB Gary Rogers (a

    5th-year senior) has looked completely lost in the process, missing

    a host of open receivers and raising the possibility Wulff is about

    to make an early switch to either Kansas State transfer Kevin

    Lopina or RS frosh Marshall Lobbestael at the position. Meanwhile,

    Wazzu's newly-aligned 4-3 defense has been torched by (admittedly

    potent) Oklahoma State and Cal in the first two weeks, appearing

    out of position much of the time while allowing a slew of big plays

    and a whopping 53 ppg. By the way, that 66-3 loss vs. the Golden

    Bears set a record as Wazzu's worst-ever defeat, eclipsing a 62-3

    shellacking Jackie Sherrill's lone Coug team absorbed vs. UCLA in

    1976.

    Wyoming...Here's another new offense that is struggling to

    find traction in the early going. Under-fire Wyo HC Joe Glenn

    enlisted veteran o.c. Bob Cole to install a version of Wake

    Forest's well-conceived offense in Laramie, but early returns are

    not positive, especially after last week's ugly 23-3 home loss vs.

    Air Force. New QB Dax Crum sure isn't looking too comfy at the

    controls, hitting on only 7 of 19 passes against the Falcons and

    pulled late in the game in favor of former starter Karsten Sween,

    who didn't fare much better. The Pokes also didn't help their

    cause by losing 4 fumbles in that sloppy display against the Force.

    Special teams woes that have also proven costly in the first two

    games. Add it up, and the war drums are beating at Dick Cheney's

    alma mater, as Glenn's chances of surviving past this season begin

    to dip.

    Syracuse...The watch is on at the Carrier Dome, where it is

    beginning to look less and less likely that HC Greg Robinson will

    survive the campaign, much less September. Resignation chatter is

    now rife on blogs in Orange country after Akron rolled into the

    dome last weekend and spanked Syracuse, 42-28, There was a silver

    lining of sort for Syracuse in the defeat, that being the

    performance of new starting QB Cameron Dantley, who looked good in

    his starting debut in place of Andrew Robinson. But the defense

    (supposedly the specialty of Robinson, the team's co-d.c.) was

    abysmal, the Zips administering a beatdown to the tune of 478 total

    yards while catching the Orange flat-footed a number of times with

    well-disguised draw plays. There's already talk in Orange country

    that a lopsided home loss this week vs. Penn State could be the

    final straw for Robinson. And, in a peripheral matter, Robinson's

    performance at Syracuse (now 7-30 SU) has been so abysmal that the

    man who hired him, AD Daryl Gross, is supposedly in hot water

    himself. Stay tuned.

    Colorado State...How far have the Rams fallen? We know they

    slipped all of the way to 3-9 last season, a campaign that cost

    long-serving HC Sonny Lubick his job. Sonny, however, apparently

    didn't leave much in the cupboard for successor Steve Fairchild, as

    CSU needed a late rally last weekend to prevail against

    lower-division Sacramento State in what was almost the

    most-humiliating defeat in CSU's modern football history. Although

    the Rams have two accomplished RBs in Gartrell Johnson & Kyle Bell,

    the OL has looked overmatched, and new QB Billy Farris continues to

    seek traction. Moreover, Mountain West observers are stunned at

    the overall talent level left behind by Lubick, which some are

    beginning to say is currently the worst in the MWC (ouch!).

    Other potential early "go-against" teams: Arkansas, Army,

    Maryland, Notre Dame, UTEP, West Virginia.

    NFL TICKER

    WEEK ONE REVIEW

    by Bruce Marshall, TGS EXTRA!!! Editor

    Well, it didn't take long for the first fantasy football

    bombshell of the 2008 season to drop.

    Tom Brady. Out for the year.

    That's the preliminary diagnosis on the New England QB, who

    didn't take a snap due to foot injury concerns in the preseason,

    then suffered a torn ACL while getting hit in the pocket in

    Sunday's opener vs. the Chiefs. Suddenly, many fantasy football

    leagues have bene turned inside-out, with the likely top choice in

    many drafts having bit the dust before the first week was

    completed.

    What does it mean, fantasy-wise, for the Patriots? Meet Matt

    Cassel, the new sheriff in town (for the moment, at least) and QB

    for the Patriots, who did just enough in relief to help New England

    to a 17-10 win. But don't expect Brady-like numbers from Cassel,

    and don't expect '07-like fantasy numbers from wideouts such as

    Randy Moss or Wes Welker, either. We'd also keep a close eye on HC

    Bill Belichick, who might soon make a move for another QB (Chris

    Simms reportedly on the radar). Which would be understandable, as

    Cassel has only appeared in limited garbage-time work in the past,

    and didn't even lead the Pat offense on a TD drive in the

    preseason. Possible fantasy beneficiaries could be RBs Sammy

    Morris and Laurence Maroney, who shared carries vs. the Chiefs and

    might be called upon to carry a heavy workload in the coming weeks.

    There were some other fantasy developments worth noting in

    Week One, and we now take a quick trip around the league for those

    highlights.

    Atlanta...It didn't take newly-acquired RB Michael Turner long

    to make an impression in his first start, All the ex-Charger did

    was blast for 220 YR (one of those a 66-yard dash) and 2 TDs in the

    Falcons' impressive 34-21 win over Detroit. New HC Mike Smith kept

    the game plan rather conservative for rookie QB Matt Ryan, who

    passed only 13 times, but did complete one of those for a 62-yard

    score in the first quarter to Michael Jenkins. Baltimore...No one

    was expecting too much from Delaware rookie QB Joe Flacco in his

    first start, but he didn't hurt the Ravens against Cincy, not

    throwing a pick in 29 mostly-safe passing attempts. And he indeed

    helped Baltimore with his legs in HC John Harbaugh's first

    regular-season game, scrambling for a 38-yard score in Baltimore's

    17-10 win. RB Willis McGahee was held out of the game with knee

    concerns, with ex-Alabama RB Le'Ron McClain and Rutgers rookie Ray

    Rice sharing the carries vs. Cincy.

    Carolina...The Panthers' new 1-2 RB punch of DeAngelo Williams

    and Oregon rookie Jonathan Stewart made a nice debut in the opener

    at San Diego, combining for a workmanlike 139 YR in Carolina's

    exciting 26-24 win. The Panthers won the game on the final play

    when QB Jake Delhomme, looking fine in his first regular-season

    game back from Tommy John surgery, tossed a 14-yard TD pass to Dante

    Rosario on the game's final play. Jake passed for 247 yards on the

    day. New York Jets...It hasn't taken Brett Favre too long to fit

    in with the Jets, tossing 2 TD passes in his first regualr-season

    start wearing a different shade of green, as the Jets wion their

    opener at Miami, 20-14. RB Thomas Jones was also in top form vs.

    the Dolphins, rushing for 101 yards in the win.

    Philadelphia...Donovan McNabb is back and so apparently is the

    deep ball in Philly! All McNabb did was pass for 361 yards in the

    Birds' 38-3 romp past the Rams on opening day, with three different

    Philly receivers (Hank Baskett, Greg Lewis, and Cal rookie DeSean

    Jackson) each cracking the 100-yard barrier, the first time that

    was done by the Eagles since their 1960 championship year when

    Timmy Brown, Pete Retzlaff, and Tommy McDonald all turned the trick

    in a 38-28 win over the Redskins on December 18. What's

    interesting is that the Eagles' top two wideouts, Reggie Brown and

    Kevin Curtis, both missed the game due to injury. Pittsburgh...

    Willie Parker is apparently back from a broken leg, at least based

    upon his opening-week performance against Houston (138 YR and 3

    Tds) in the Steelers' 38-17 romp. Illinois rookie RB Rashard

    Mendenhall, expectred to get the bulk of the short-yardage carries

    (and cracks at the goal line from close range), indeed carried 10

    times, but didn't record a TD against the Texans.

    TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

    Featuring the "Tech Edge"

    COLLEGE

    NORTH CAROLINA at RUTGERS (Thursday, September 11)...Butch 5-3 as

    dog LY, while Schiano has cooled abit vs. the number now just 2-4

    last 65 as home chalk and 6-7 vs. line overall since '07. Tech

    edge-slight to UNC, absed on team trends.

    KANSAS at SOUTH FLORIDA (Friday, September 12)...Mangino covered

    all 4 chances as true visitor LY, and is 7-2 vs. line on road since

    '06. Magino also 15-3 vs. line his last 18 onboard. Tech

    edge-slight to KU, based on team trends.

    NAVY at DUKE.Mids have beaten Duke SU last 4 seasons, though didn't

    cover LY's wild 46-43 win at Annapolis. Mids 17-7 vs. line their

    last 24 as visitor. Tech edge-slight to Navy, based on series

    trends.

    RICE at VANDERBILT.Dores recovered somewhat last year as chalk,

    covering 2 of 3 chances, although Vandy still just 5-10 as chalk

    since '02. Dores no covers 9 of last 10 hosting non-SEC

    opposition! Owls 15-6 as dog since '06 (6-4 under Bailiff), 9-4 as

    road dog since '06 (4-3 for Bailiff). Tech edge-Rice, based on

    team trends.

    AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI STATE.Big revenge spot for Tuberville after

    losing to Sly 19-14 LY. Tigers had won and covered previous 5

    meetings. Sly just 1-4 vs. line as host LY and 3-12 previous 15

    vs. spread at Starkville. Tuberville has won and covered last 3

    trips to MSU with all wins by 28 or more. Tigers 8-4 vs. line as

    visitor since '05, and Tuberville has covered 4 of last 6 in

    revenge. Tech edge-Auburn, based on team and series trends.

    BALL STATE at AKRON.Ball State 5-2 vs. line away LY, 10-3 since

    '06, 3-1 as road chalk since '06, 8-3 as overall chalk that span.

    Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on team trends.

    TOLEDO at EASTERN MICHIGAN.Home team has won and covered the last

    3 meetings. Amstutz no covers last 6 as visitor, 3-15 last 18 in

    role. Tech edge-EMU, based on Amstutz negatives.

    NEVADA at MISSOURI.Mizzou on 18-8-1 spread run last 27 on board,

    though Tigers only covered 1 of 3 laying DDs since '06. Tigers

    have also covered their last 7 vs. non-Big XII opposition. Tech

    edge-slight to Mizzou, based on team trends.

    SMU at TEXAS TECH .TT has won and covered big the last 2 years vs.

    pre-June SMU. Leach 15-7 laying DDs since '03. Red Raiders 5-2

    last 7 laying 20 or more. Tech edge-TT, based on series trends.

    NEW MEXICO STATE at NEBRASKA.Mumme 1-5 vs. line away LY and 5-12 in

    role since taking over NMSU in '05. Ags just 3-8 as DD road dog

    under Mumme. Tech edge-Nebraska, based on NMSU negatives.

    UCLA at BYU.Rematch from pair of games LY both covered by UCLA

    (split SU). Bruins on 11-0 run as underdog (1-0 for Neuheisel) and

    now 19-9 last 28 on board. Cougs, however, 8-3 vs. line as home

    since '06 (all as chalk). Tech edge-UCLA, based on recent dog

    mark.

    OREGON at PURDUE.Bellotti 11-4 vs. line since last season. Ducks

    also 8-1 vs. line as non-conference visitor since '99. Tiller was

    3-3 vs. line at Ross-Ade LY but only 6-12 against points as host

    since '05. Purdue only 1-5 vs. line in non-conference games since

    '05. Tech edge-Oregon, based on team trends.

    ARKANSAS at TEXAS.Houston Nutt covered all 3 vs. Mack Brown in last

    decade, but Nutt has moved to ole miss and Arkansas struggling for

    Petrino. Mack has won and covered first two as 20+ chalk TY. Tech

    edge-slight to Texas, based on recent trends.

    GEORGIA at SOUTH CAROLINA.Revenge for Richt after early loss LY

    between hedges. Bulldogs have won last 3 trips to Columbia, and

    road team has covered last 3 in series. UGa 11-4-1 vs. line last

    16 on board. Spurrier only 3-6 as home dog since taking over SC in

    '05. Richt also 7-3 vs. line last 10 in revenge. Tech

    edge-Georgia, based on team and recent series trends.

    AIR FORCE at HOUSTON.UH just 1-4 as home chalk for Briles LY.

    Calhoun 9-3 vs. line at AFA since LY. Tech edge-AFA, based on team

    trends.

    HAWAII at OREGON STATE.UH now just 5-10 vs. spread last 15 on

    board, and Leahey might be starting to fade again on mainland,

    dropping last 4 vs. spread away from home. Riley has been pretty

    good home chalk lately, with 6-2 mark in role since '06. Tech

    edge-OSU, based on team trends.

    WISCONSIN at FRESNO STATE.Note Pat Hill only 3-9 vs. line last 12

    at Dog House although much of that damage done in poor '06.

    Badgers no covers all 6 away from home LY and are just 1-4-1 as

    visiting dog since '05. Tech edge-slight to Fresno, based on

    recent Wisconsin road woes.

    PENN STATE at SYRACUSE.Cuse just 3-11 last 14 on board, also 0-6 as

    home dog LY and just 3-8 in role under Robinson. Shades only 1-4

    as road chalk LY, however, but he is 11-5 laying DDs overall since

    '05. Tech edge-Shades, based on team trends.

    MICHIGAN at NOTRE DAME.Revenge for Weis (which a lot of games will

    be this year) after 38-0 loss at Big House LY. If ND a dog, note

    Weis only 1-3 as home dog LY, and overall as host just 4-12 last 16

    in role. Tech edge-slight to Michigan, based on team trends.

    IOWA STATE at IOWA.Revenge for Iowa after bitter 15-13 loss at Ames

    LY. But note ISU has covered the last 4 and 9 of last 10 in

    series. Cyclones 6-3 as dog for Chizik LY. Tech edge-ISU, based

    on team and series trends.

    GEORGIA TECH at VIRGINIA TECH.Chan was 6-2-1 vs. line as dog at GT

    the last 2 years, and Paul Johnson was 16-6-1 as dog the last 5

    seasons at Navy. Beamer only 2-4 as home chalk LY (1-3 laying DDs

    as host in '07). Tech edge-GT, based on team trends.

    NC STATE at CLEMSON.O'Brien having trouble gaining traction at NCS,

    only 5-7 vs. line since LY. Clemson has covered 4 of last 5 in

    series, though Tommy B just 6-12 vs. spread last 18 on board since

    late '06. Tech edge-slight to Clemson, based on series trends.

    WESTERN MICHIGAN at IDAHO.Idaho 1-9 vs. spread last 10 on board.

    Akey 0-3 as home dog LY. WMU on a bit of a slide, too, just 3-9-1

    last 13 on board, and Broncos just 1-4 as visiting chalk since '05.

    Tech edge-slight to WMU, based on recent Idaho negatives.

    CENTRAL MICHIGAN at OHIO. Chips only 2-5-1 vs. line as visitor

    since LY but they are 15-5-1 as chalk since '05. Solich, however,

    4-1 vs. line at Athens LY and 10-4 vs. number as host since taking

    over Bobcats in '05, he's 4-2 as home dog that span. Tech

    edge-slight to Ohio, based on team trends.

    CAL at MARYLAND.Ralph only 5-12 vs. line last 17 on board and 9-18

    last 27 overall. Ralph also just 5-11 vs. line his last 16 as host

    and no covers last 6 hosting non-ACC teams. Tech edge-Cal, based

    on Ralph negatives.

    WASHINGTON STATE at BAYLOR.Bears have slipped to 8-19 vs. line last

    27 on board and just 4-12 vs. number last 16 at Waco. Tech

    edge-slight to WSU, based on team trends.

    STANFORD at TCU.Frogs are solid 12-4 vs. line last 16 at Fort

    Worth, 10-4 last 14 as home chalk (5-2 last 7 laying DDs at home).

    Tech edge-TCU, based on team trends.

    TEMPLE at BUFFALO.Buffalo abused Owls 42-7 LY and has won last two

    years against Temple. Bulls have also covered 5 of last 7 as MAC

    host. Turner Gill now 22-12-1 vs. line last 35 on board. Tech

    edge-slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.

    UAB at TENNESSEE.UT 9-3-1 vs. line after last 13 SU losses. UT

    also covering games at home lately, 5-1-1 LY and 9-4-1 since '06.

    Vols have also covered last 4 hosting non-SEC teams. UAB 11-20-1

    vs. line last 32 on board. Tech edge-UT, based on team trends.

    EAST CAROLINA at TULANE.Skip 27-11 vs. line at ECU, 16-5 vs. line

    away from Greenville. Skip also 9-5 as chalk since '05 and 2-0 as

    DD chalk that span. Bob Toledo non-descript 5-6 vs. line LY, but

    Tulane 11-21-1 vs. line overall since '05. Tech edge-Skip, based

    on recent trends.

    MEMPHIS at MARSHALL.Note that home team has won and covered the

    last three seasons. Tommy West 5-1 vs. line last 6 as visitor.

    Herd has been a bit better at home than on road lately (home team

    21-9-1 vs. line in Herd games since '05). Tech edge-slight to

    Marshall, based on team and series trends.

    VIRGINIA at UCONN.Groh, historically subpar vs. line on road at Uva

    (9-23 last 32 vs. spread as visitor). Cavs no covers last 5 as

    non-conference visitor. Edsall 13-4 vs. line at Rentsch since '05,

    9-3 as chalk since '05, 4-1 as DD chalk that span. Tech edge-UConn,

    based on team trends.

    OKLAHOMA at WASHINGTON.Stoops just 2-6 vs. line last 8 as chalk

    away from Norman, but OU is 11-6-1 as DD chalk since '06. Ty 6-3

    as home dog since '06 (though just 6-8 vs. line at Seattle that

    span). Tech edge-UW, based on team trends.

    OHIO STATE at SOUTHERN CAL.Tressel 4-1 vs. line as visitor LY, 11-3

    vs. line as visitor since '05. He's 1-0 as visiting dog that span

    in rare dog role. Bucks 9-4 vs. line last 13 with single-digit

    spreads, but Pete 7-1 last 8 in such roles. Pete just 2-4 as home

    chalk LY but has covered 13 of last 20 on board since mid '06.

    Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.

    ARIZONA at NEW MEXICO.Revenge for Stoops after 29-27 home loss to

    Rocky LY. Rocky no covers last 3 as home dog and just 5-10 vs.

    line last 15 on board, also just 2-5 last 7 as dog. Stoops has now

    covered last 6 on board since late LY. Stoops also 8-4 vs. line

    last 12 in revenge spots. Tech edge-slight to UA, based on recent

    trends.

    BOWLING GREEN at BOISE STATE.Boise has continued blue carpet magic

    the past few years, now 15-5 vs. line last 20 as host, 12-4 last 16

    laying DDs at home. Tech edge-Boise, based on team trends.

    UTAH at UTAH STATE.Road team 3-0-1 vs. line last 4 meetings, and

    Utes have won and covered handily last 4 trips to Logan. Utah 6-1

    vs. line laying DDs since '06. more. Utags only 2-8 vs. line at

    home since '06. Tech edge-Utah, based on team and series trends.

    SAN DIEGO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE.Dick Tomey 6-1 as chalk since

    '06, and Spartans also 9-1 vs. spread as host since '06 as well.

    Tech edge-San Jose State, based on team trends.

    UNLV at ARIZONA STATE.Rebs just 4-14 vs. line last 18 as visitor

    under Sanford. Erickson 6-1 as DD chalk since LY amd ASU 12-2 in

    role since '05 (10-1 as Tempe DD chalk that span). Tech edge-ASU,

    based on team trends.

    FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MICHIGAN STATE.Prior to covering 3 of 5 outside

    of Belt LY, Owls had dropped previous 7 vs. spread outside of

    conference. Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on team trends.

    WESTERN KENTUCKY at ALABAMA.Nick now 2-7 as chalk at Bama, and

    dating back to Mike Shula days, Tide 6-18 as chalk since '05, 2-15

    as home chalk that span (2-12 laying DDs at home). Tech edge-WKU,

    based on team trends.

    SOUTHERN MISS at ARKANSAS STATE.Red Wolves only 2-5 vs. line last

    7 as host compared to 8-4 road dog mark that span. Fedora trying

    to follow up Bower recent success as road chalk (USM 4-0 in role

    LY, 6-1 since '06). Tech edge-slight to USM, based on team trends.

    MIDDLE TENNESSEE at KENTUCKY.Mixed results for Rich Brooks laying

    big numbers lately (2-2 as DD chalk since '06), although he is

    11-6-1 vs. line at Lexington since '05. Tech edge-slight to UK,

    based on team trends.

    LOUISIANA at ILLINOIS.Ragin' Cajuns only 3-7 as dog since LY and

    4-10 vs. line in role since '06 (4-4 as DD road dog that span,

    however). Tech edge-slight to Illinois, based on team trends.

    NORTH TEXAS at LSU.UNT 1-18 vs. line last 19 visiting non-Belt

    opposition! Les Miles 5-2-1 vs. line laying 30 or more with LSU

    since '05. Tech edge-LSU, based on team trends.

    NFL

    OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY."Unders" in five of last 6 in series.

    Oakland only 6-35 SU its last 41 away from home, however. Chiefs

    only 1-6-1 vs. line as host LY. Tech edge-slight to "under," based

    on "totals" trends.

    TENNESSEE at CINCINNATI.Titans "under" 12-6 since LY after being an

    "over" team the previous few years. Tech edge-slight to "under,"

    based on "totals" trends.

    INDIANAPOLIS at MINNESOTA.Vikes are "over" 7 of last 9 at home.

    Colts have won and covered last 5 and 8 of last 9 against NFC

    opposition. Tech edge-slight to Colts and "over," based on team

    trends.

    NEW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON.Saints "over" 14-6 last 20 on board since

    late '06. If Saints favored, note 4-1 road chalk mark since '06

    (3-1 LY). Skins only 12-18-4 vs. line last 34 on board (7-9-2)

    last 18. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Saints, based on "totals"

    and team trends.

    GREEN BAY at DETROIT. Pack has won and covered last 4 in series,

    and McCarthy Packers (with Favre) were 11-4-1 vs. line away the

    past two seasons. Pack was also 7-1 "over" away LY and is "over"

    11-4-1 away since '06. Lions "over" 7-3 last 10 at Ford Field.

    Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and team

    trends.

    CHICAGO at CAROLINA.Home chalk historically tricky for Panthers,

    just 11-21 in role since '03 (1-3 in injury-plagued '07, 7-10 since

    '05). Panthers also "under" 6-2 as host LY, "under" 18-9 last 27

    at Charlotte. Tech edge-slight to "under," based on "totals"

    trends.

    NY GIANTS at ST. LOUIS.Giants looking for 12th straight win away

    from home! Down stretch LY, NY won last 11 away from Meadowlands

    (only non-cover was rainy London game vs. Miami). Giants also

    "under" 9-3 last 12 away from home. Rams 3-10 last 13 as dog and

    2-6 vs. line last 8 as host. Tech edge-Giants, based on team

    trends.

    BUFFALO at JACKSONVILLE.Bills "under" 6-2 away LY, "under" 11-5

    last 16 as visitor. Jags 12-5 vs. spread last 17 at Alltel. Tech

    edge-Jags and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

    ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY.Atlanta is "under" 12-4 on road since '06,

    16-5 "under" last 21 away. Tech edge-"Under," based on team

    trends.

    SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE.Last four in series "under." Seattle has

    won and covered 3 of last 4 at home vs. SF and is 19-8-1 vs. line

    at Qwest Field since '05. SF 2-6 vs. line away LY. Tech

    edge-Seahawks and slight to "under," based on team and series

    "totals" trends.

    MIAMI at ARIZONA.Cards "over" 31-17-1 since '05. Tech edge-slight

    to "over," based on Cards' "totals" trends.

    NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS.NE 8-2-1 vs. line last 11 in series,

    although teams have split last 4 spread decisions. Patriots,

    however, have won and covered last 5 as series visitor. Four of

    last five meetings at Meadowlands also "over." Tech edge-"Over,"

    based on "totals" trends.

    BALTIMORE at HOUSTON.Kubiak 6-2 vs. line at home LY (3-2 as chalk),

    10-6 as host since '06. Texans also "over" 14-7-1 last 22 on board.

    Ravens 0-8 vs. number on road LY. Tech edge-Texans and "over,"

    based on team and "totals" trends.

    SAN DIEGO at DENVER.Bolts have swept Broncos SU ea ch of the last

    two seasons. Shanahan "over" 6-2 at home LY, 11-5 overall in '07,

    and "over" 12-5 last 17 as host. Bolts "over" 8-2 away LY, 13-5

    "over" on road since '06. Tech edge-"Over" and Bolts, based on

    "totals" and recent series trends.

    PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND.Steelers have won SU last 9 in series,

    7-1-1 vs. line in those games. Last six in series "over" as well.

    Steel has won and covered last 5 at Cleveland. Tech edge-"Over"

    and Steel, based on "totals" and series trends.

    PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS (Monday, September 15).Birds have won and

    covered last 2 (as dog each time) and 3 of last 4 at Dallas. Andy

    4-1 as dog LY, 8-2 in role since '06, and 19-8 last 27 as dog away

    from home. Tech edge-Eagles, based on team and series trends.

    SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT

    COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

    COACH & POINTSPREAD-ARKANSAS over Texas, AUBURN over Mississippi

    State, BALL STATE over Akron, BYU over Ucla@, EAST CAROLINA over

    Tulane, MICHIGAN over Notre Dame, MICHIGAN STATE over Florida

    Atlantic, MISSOURI over Nevada@, OHIO STATE over Southern Cal@,

    OREGON over Purdue@, TCU over Stanford.

    COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-GEORGIA TECH over Virginia tech, NEW

    MEXICO over Arizona, UCLA over Byu.

    RIVALRY DOGS-IOWA STATE over Iowa@.

    POWER UNDERDOGS-KANSAS over South Florida (Friday, September 12),

    GEORGIA TECH over Virginia Tech, NEVADA ovewr Missouri@, NEW MEXICO

    over Arizona, OHIO STATE over Southern Cal@, PURDUE over Oregon@,

    UCLA over Byu, WISCONSIN over Fresno State@.

    PAINFUL MEMORY-AUBURN over Mississippi State, GEORGIA TECH over

    Virginia Tech, IOWA over Iowa State@.

    POWER REVENGE-AUBURN over Mississippi State.

    RESTED HOME WINNERS-BOISE STATE over Bowling Green, FRESNO STATE

    over Wisconsin, SOUTHERN CAL over Ohio State@.

    IMPOTENT FAVORITES-WASHINGTON STATE* over Baylor.

    "AFS" (Away from spread last two decisions): PLUS (+)...Cal

    +25.50, Az 22.25, ECU 21.25, Vandy 20.25, Rice 18.00, Ohio 16.75,

    Ore 13.50, Minn 12.75, Buff 12.25, USM 12.25, Temple 12.25, Ok. St

    10.75; MINUS (-)...WSu -34.00, Wyo 17.00, Syr 13.50, Ore St 13.25,

    Pitt 13.00, Kent St 11.50, A&M 10.25, Miami-O 10.00, New Mex 10.00.

    POINTSPREAD STREAKS: Wins...2-Akron, Az, Buff, Cal, ECU, Ok St,

    Ore, Rice, USM, Temp, Tex, Tulsa, Vandy; Losses...2-Kent St, Mem,

    Mich, Ore St, Pitt, Syr, UAB, UTEP, WSU, WMU, Wyo.

    NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

    NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-BUFFALO over Jacksonville@, DENVER over San

    Diego, GREEN BAY* over Detroit@, INDIANAPOLIS* over Minnesota,

    TENNESSEE* over Cincinnati, PHILADELPHIA over Dallas@ (Monday,

    September 15).

    FAMILIARITY-KANSAS CITY# over Oakland, DETROIT# over Green Bay,

    NY JETS over New England, DENVER over San Diego.

    NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-SEATTLE over San Francisco, ST. LOUIS over

    NY Giants.

    NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo@, DALLAS over

    Philadelphia@ (Monday, September 15).

    *-If underdog. #-If dog, pick, or 1-point favorite. @-May

    conflict with other tech system(s). For preferred TGS EXTRA!!!

    recommendation, consult Technician's Corner and/or Tech Plays of

    Week. Line moves after Sunday night can alter selections in certain

    systems.

    COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2008

    POWER UNDERDOGS/PAINFUL MEMORY teams to be charted in 2008

    include Alabama, Arizona State, Auburn, Boise State, Boston

    College, BYU, Cal, Cincinnati, Clemson, East Carolina, Florida,

    Florida State, Fresno State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Iowa,

    Kansas, LSU, Michigan, Missouri, Navy, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio

    State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers,

    South Carolina, South Florida, Southern Cal, Southern Miss,

    Tennessee, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Tulsa, UCLA, Utah, Virginia,

    Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

    POWER REVENGE teams for 2008 include Auburn, Florida, Georgia,

    LSU, Missouri, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, Southern Cal,

    Tennessee, Texas, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

    IMPOTENT FAVORITES for 2008 include Army, Baylor, Duke, Eastern

    Michigan, Florida International, Idaho, Kent State, Minnesota, New

    Mexico State, North Texas, Rice, San Diego State, Stanford,

    Syracuse, Temple, Tulane, UAB, UNLV, and Utah State.

    COACH & POINTSPREAD coaches for 2008 include Bobby Petrino,

    Arkansas; Tommy Tuberville, Auburn; Brady Hoke, Ball State; Bronco

    Mendenhall, BYU; Brian Kelly, Cincinnati; Skip Holtz, East

    Carolina; Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech; Mark Mangino, Kansas; Charlie

    Weatherbie, Louisiana-Monroe; Rich Rodriguez, Michigan; Mark

    Dantonio, Michigan State; Gary Pinkel, Missouri; Jim Tressel, Ohio

    State; Mike Bellotti, Oregon; Jim Leavitt, South Florida; Gary

    Patterson, TCU; and Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech.

    COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG coaches for 2008 include Mike Stoops,

    Arizona; Tommy Tuberville, Auburn; Brian Kelly, Cincinnati; Tommy

    Bowden, Clemson; Skip Holtz, East Carolina; Urban Meyer, Florida;

    Bobby Bowden Florida State; Mark Richt, Georgia; Paul Johnson,

    Georgia Tech; Ron Zook, Illinois; Charlie Weatherbie,

    Louisiana-Monroe; Mark Dantonio, Michigan State; Rocky Long, New

    Mexico; Tom O'Brien, NC State; Jim Leavitt, South Florida; Mike

    Price, UTEP; Rick Neuheisel, UCLA; Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech; and

    Jim Grobe, Wake Forest.

    NFL 2008

    NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG coaches for 2008 include Dick Jauron,

    Buffalo; John Fox, Carolina; Mike Shanahan, Denver; Mike McCarthy,

    Green Bay; Tony Dungy, Indianapolis; Jack Del Rio, Jacksonviille;

    Bill Belichick, New England; Sean Payton, New Orleans; Tom

    Coughlin, NY Giants; Andy Reid, Philadelphia; and Jeff Fisher,

    Tennessee.

    YARDSTICKS

    COLLEGE--2008 TO DATE

    1-3 3.5-6.5 7-13.5 14-over TOTAL

    HOME FAVORITES 1-3 2-7 7-6 19-12 29-28

    ROAD FAVORITES 1-1 2-1 7-9 3-0 13-11

    FAVORITES-DOGS* 2-4 4-9 16-15 22-12 44-40

    COLLEGE--LAST WEEK

    1-3 3.5-6.5 7-13.5 14-over TOTAL

    HOME FAVORITES 0-2 0-6 3-2 12-8 15-18

    ROAD FAVORITES 1-0 0-1 2-7 2-0 5-8

    FAVORITES-DOGS* 1-2 0-7 6-9 14-8 21-26

    NFL--2008 TO DATE

    1-3 3.5-6.5 7-13.5 14-over TOTAL

    HOME FAVORITES 2-0 2-0 1-1 0-1 5-2

    ROAD FAVORITES 2-3 1-0 0-0 0-0 3-3

    FAVORITES-DOGS* 4-3 3-0 1-1 0-1 8-5

    NFL--LAST WEEK

    1-3 3.5-6.5 7-13.5 14-over TOTAL

    HOME FAVORITES 2-0 2-0 1-1 0-1 5-2

    ROAD FAVORITES 2-3 1-0 0-0 0-0 3-3

    FAVORITES-DOGS* 4-3 3-0 1-1 0-1 8-5

    *NOTE: 1st # Favorite winners: 2nd # Underdog winners. Example: In

    the 1-3 point range in the NFL last week, the Favorites won 4 while

    the Underdogs won 3. Games at neutral sites also appear here.

    THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA!

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 10 2008 2:34pm
13. 0 likes

    Red Sheet

    SEPTEMBER 13, 2008 VOLUME 40, NUMBER 3

    Air Force 38 - HOUSTON 24 - (3:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Houston minus 3½, & is now minus 5. The

    Falcons are one of the top spread streakers, & are currently on a nice 8-1 run vs the pts.

    And, as usual, they are doing it with their splendid overland game, which has piled up 694

    yds thus far. Defensively, they've allowed a total of only 18 FDs in the early going, & caused

    5 TOs in last week's 23-3 demolition of a decent Wyoming squad. Not the best of teams for

    this Cougar "D' to face on the heels of allowing nearly 700 yds, 379 of which came on the

    ground. The Coogs can crank it up, overhead, with Keenum tossing 9 TD passes already,

    but are on an 0-6 spread run, by 70½ pts. Love the underdog role here.

    RATING: AIR FORCE 89

    MICHIGAN STATE 47 - Florida Atlantic 17 - (Noon) -- Line opened at MichiganSt minus 16½, & is now

    minus 17. Simply no questioning the improvement of the Spartans since no-nonsense

    coach Dantonio arrived in East Lansing a year ago. From 3 consecutive losing seasons, to

    a near upset of BostonCollege in the '07 Champs Sports Bowl. MichiganSt is on a nice 8-

    3-2 spread run, with 1 of those misses by a mere ½ pt in its opening 30-23 loss at California,

    so note the Bears' 66-3 romp over WashingtonSt last week. With Ringer off a 5-TD game,

    & veteran Hoyer doing the tossing, see no letup, as the Owls, behind QB Rusty Smith, were

    also a bowl team LY. Thus, you have total focus with the better team.

    RATING: MICHIGAN STATE 89

    CLEMSON 48 - North Carolina State 10 - (Noon) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 19½, & is now minus

    18½. To say that the Tigers laid an egg in their opening week game with Alabama, would be

    a gigantic understatement. They ranked 9th entering that one, & crawled away with a 34-10

    loss, in which they were outrushed by an incomprehensible 239-0, with their pair of stellar

    RBs, Harper & Stiller, being completely shackled. But got off the mark last week vs the

    Citadel (who wouldn't?), & should keep it going vs an NCSt team which has amassed a total

    of 21 FDs in its 2 games to date, & has little or no overland game to take much needed time

    off the clock. And a year ago, Clemson had a 608-202 yd edge vs Wolfpack.

    RATING: CLEMSON 88

    TCU 45 - Stanford 13 - (7:00 -- Line opened at TCU minus 13½, & is now minus 12½. In '05 & '06, the Frogs

    were one of the best propositions in college ball, with their near weekly routs. But a year

    ago, it took them 9 games to approach their recent profitable status. So note their current

    5-1 spread run, with their only miss by just 1 pt. This season, they have a highly impressive

    49-19 FD edge & that includes a 20-9 edge over always dangerous NewMexico. The Cards

    have had their moments, to be sure, including their epic upset of USC LY, & have a solid run

    "D", but note that they have been outscored by 60 pts in their last 3 RGs.

    RATING: TCU 88

    FRESNO STATE 35 - Wisconsin 20 - (10:30 - ABC) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 2, & is now minus

    1½. As you know, we had the Bulldogs in their opening week tussle with Rutgers, & did not

    like what we were witnessing in the first half, when they were badly outplayed, but managed

    to escape with a 0-0 tie at intermission. And then they did what we expected, with a 24-7

    win, behind the running of Matthews (163 yds & 3 TDs), & the passing of Brandstater. Are

    now on a 7-2 ATS run, covering their last 2 by 36 pts. The 10th ranked Badgers came from

    404 RYs to 158 in a week, & have allowed >30 pts in their last 4 RGs.

    RATING: FRESNO STATE 88

    Pittsburgh 31 - CLEVELAND 20 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 4, & is now minus 5. We

    originally gave the Browns the benefit of the doubt in this one, figuring that they just couldn't

    be "one-year wonders", as they lit it up with regularity a year ago. Sure, they did absolutely

    nothing right in their hometown 28-10 wipeout loss to the Cowboys, with a FD deficit of 30-

    11, along with a 488-205 yd disadvantage. But the Steelers provided the perfect opponent

    in which to erase the sudden doubts, with this NBC Sunday Nighter. But respected sources

    tell us that the Browns are simply not in the class of this Pitt team which opened impressively:

    Ben 13-of-14, & 138 RYs from Parker. Spread reasonable.

    RATING: PITTSBURGH STEELERS 88

    NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Oregon, Missouri, BoiseSt, OregonSt - NFL: NewOrleans, J'Ville, Philly

    LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): NotreDame (+4 to +1); Kansas (+6 to +3½); Duke (Pick

    to -2½); OregonSt (-9½ to -12); California (-11½ to -14); Baylor (+5 to +2½); Buffalo (-4 to -6½); UCLA (+10½

    to +8½); Oregon (-5 to -7); Rice (+8½ to +7); Nevada (+28 to +26½); Houston (-3½ to -5); Syracuse (+28 to

    +26½); USC (-9 to -10½); BowlingGreen (+17 to +15½); WesternKy (+29 to +27½); NoTexas (+42½ to +41)

    - NFL: Chicago (+6½ to +3); NYGiants (-6 to -8½); Cincinnati (+1 to -1); Miami (+8 to +7); Washington (Pick

    to -1); Pittsburgh (-4 to -5) - TIME CHANGES: Toledo/EasternMich: now Noon; SanJoseSt/SanDiegoSt

    (now 8:00) - KEY INJURIES: LaLafayette RB (concussion) probable; Marshall TE Slate (knee) probable;

    Navy QB Kaheaku-Enhada (hamstring) probable; Nevada RB Lippincott (knee) out; OhioSt RB Wells (foot)

    probable; SoCarolina WR McKinley (hamstring) doubtful; Texas A&M RB Goodson (knee) probable; Texas

    A&M QB McGee (shoulder) questionable; Vanderbilt WR Smith (foot) doubtful....

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 10 2008 2:35pm
14. 0 likes

    PLAYBOOK NFL

    KANSAS CITY over Oakland by 6

    It’s strange to see a team that has lost each of its last 10 games in a row

    donning the role of a favorite. However, when you’re talking about the Chiefs

    and home-opening games, the oddsmaker knows what he’s doing. That’s

    because Kansas City is 20-7 SU and 20-5-1 ATS in home openers, including

    12-0-1 ATS when hosting a division rival. Tough to fade numbers like those

    especially considering that teams in Game Two, off a season-opening Monday

    Night game, are just 13-26 ATS when facing a foe that is seeking revenge

    – including 9-25 if that foe won 4 or more games last season. You say the

    visiting team is 9-0 ATS in this series. We say 9-1 is in the making.

    CINCINNATI over Tennessee by 1

    Ocho Cinco hooked up with Ocho Nuevo (Carson Palmer’s 89 total passing

    yards) for ONE CATCH in the Bengals’ embarrassing 17-10 loss at Baltimore,

    immediately prompting Marvin Lewis to ask for a refund from Rosetta Stone.

    Cincinnati season ticket holders will be doing the same if they fail to get by

    the Vince Young-less Titans today. Coming to the Striped Cats’ aid is the fact

    that NFL teams in Game Two playing off a SU favorite loss are 12-4 SU and ATS

    when facing an opponent off a SU underdog win in which the foe covered

    the spread by more than nine points since 1983. With Jeff Fisher one of the

    league’s best underdog coaches and Lewis a paltry 1-7-1 ATS as a favorite off

    a SU and ATS loss in which he failed to the spread by 7 or more points, it’s ‘no

    way Jose’ for either team for us today.

    Indianapolis over MINNESOTA by 3

    So much for not taking a snap during the preseason. Ask Peyton Manning

    and Tom Brady their thoughts on the subject and we’re certain it would

    differ from their coaches’ point of view. Manning was as rusty as a 50-year

    old hooker in Baghdad in the Colts’ stunning loss to the Bears, posting an

    81.8 QB Rating for the game. Will he fi nd the groove in the Metrodome

    this Sunday? Not unless his offensive line and TE Dallas Clark gets healthy.

    Sure, Tony Dungy is 19-13 ATS in his career in games off a SU favorite loss,

    including 10-4 as a favorite of less than 7 points. But with Minny also reeling

    off a tough Monday night scrape with the Packers, we’ll sit back and observe

    for now.

    WASHINGTON over New Orleans by 3

    With the Saints off a season-opening win and cover and the Skins on the

    opposite end of that ladder, it would be easy to run with the gang from

    Bourbon Street here today. To that we say no. For the 2nd week in a row

    New Orleans tackles a team that improved on both sides of the ball last year

    while the Saints slipped both ways in 2007. They needed a timely INT in the

    end zone to stave off Tampa Bay last week. They’ll need more than that to

    hold off the Hogs today. It’s Jim Zorn’s home debut and his Porkers take the

    fi eld knowing they are 10-2 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 2 points in

    games after scoring less than 10 points when facing a foe off a win. We’ll

    know more after today exactly where each of these teams fi t on the NFC

    power chain.

    DETROIT over Green Bay by 7

    Shame on the oddsmakers. The Lions took another of their famous road

    dumps when they lost in Atlanta as 3.5-point favorites last Sunday. Like Peter,

    Paul and Mary said, “When will they ever learn?” They sing a different tune

    at home, however. It’s here where they are 7-0 ATS in September off a nondivision

    SU and ATS loss. They are also 15-2 ATS at home as a division dog or

    favorite of 4 or less points after allowing more than 28 points in their last

    game. The Pack attack lacks in division games when coming off a division

    battle. That’s confi rmed by its 0-8-1 ATS mark when taking on a sub .500

    division rival that lost its last game SU as a favorite. Monday night hangover

    at its best here today.

    3 BEST BET

    Last week’s two biggest upset makers collide in Carolinas. The Bears

    avenged their Super Bowl loss to the Colts with a shocking win at

    Indianapolis while the Panthers pounced on the Chargers in a stirring

    last-play-of-the-game win at San Diego. What to do for an encore?

    If you’re Carolina head coach John Fox the plan would be avoid the

    dreaded FAVORITE moniker as his team is 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS in its

    franchise history when laying points against a .500 or better opponent

    in Games 1 thru 6. Bears’ boss Lovie Smith counters at 5-1 ATS as an NFL

    head coach when facing a foe off a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SU

    and ATS away Now, where else can you fi nd info like that other than

    the PLAYBOOK? No deliberating here, It’s Da Bears.

    Chicago over CAROLINA by 7

    5 BEST BET

    Now that we’ve paid the bills with Buffalo, it’s time to charge things up

    with the Jags. Jax boss Jack Del Rio warms up when facing non-division

    opposition, going 34-19 SU and ATS in his NFL career, including 17-7-1

    ATS as a host. Better yet, he’s 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS at home in Games

    One thru Thirteen against a foe off one-win exact. Buffi e enters off last

    week’s wire-to-wire home win over Seattle, to which they were quoted

    as saying, “Hopefully we made a statement today.” The problem is this

    is GAME TWO of the season, a bit early on for a 7-win team last year

    to be vouching about its self -proclaimed status. When last we checked

    the Bills were averaging 9 PPG in their last nine road games! That won’t

    cut it here today. Buffalo falls to 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in games against

    opponents off a SU favorite loss here today. Purchase approved.

    JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo by 20

    NY Giants over ST. LOUIS by 3

    Welcome to this week’s ‘clothespin special’. Take a poll of the fans who

    watched last week’s Rams’ ruination against the Eagles and it would be hard

    to get any of them to cast a vote St. Louis’ way. Toss in the loss of WR Drew

    Bennett and Scott Linehan’s putrid 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS mark as an NFL head

    coach in games against winning teams and you’d be hard pressed to fi nd

    many fans in St. Louis that like the Redbirds’ chances today. Enter Captain

    Contrarian. For openers, defending Super Bowl champions are a measly 35-

    55 ATS as non-division road favorites the next year. When favored in road

    openers they are just 6-16 ATS, including 1-7 when playing off one-win exact.

    No surprise whatsoever to see the Rams improve to 7-1 ATS as a September

    home dog here today. Start your clothespins.

    TAMPA BAY over Atlanta by 7

    Nice job by the Falcons in Mike Smith’s debut as an NFL coach. Not only did

    his team rush the ball for over 300 yards against the listless Lions, they also

    ‘improved’ to 8-23 SU and ATS as home dogs of late (that’s how bad things had

    become in Atlanta). If they’re able to generate HALF the rushing yards they

    produced last week, they’ll be in great shape: NFL road dogs who rush for 150

    or more yards in a game are an eye-popping 312-67-9 ATS! That’s 80.4% ATS,

    likely enough to keep us out of any thoughts we may be harboring for the Bucs.

    Sure, this is Matt Ryan’s initial foray on the NFL road but that rushing stat scares

    the crap out of us.

    SEATTLE over San Francisco by 6

    First, our apologies to Niners’ QB J.T. O’Sullivan. We referred to him as

    O’Connell on these pages last week. His uncle, Gilbert, called us to correct

    the faux pas. Him and his teammates will be up against it when they take

    on a surly Seahawks squad that was squashed, 34-10, at Buffalo last week.

    Most pundits would come running to Seattle’s defense, citing the need for

    a bounce back. Us, we’re likely to be alone on an island in our assessment

    as we prefer to call out Seattle’s sour 3-10-1 ATS mark as a favorite in games

    off a DD SU and ATS loss under Mike Holmgren. Then there’s the Seahawk

    supporters that will choose to turn a blind eye to San Francisco’s 10-1 ATS

    record in September when facing a foe off a DD SU loss. We don’t mind. We’ll

    take the points as we remain ‘alone again, naturally’.

    ARIZONA over Miami by 3

    A game effort by the Dolphins in their Tuna-debut last week when they

    fell painfully close in a 6-point loss to Brett Favre and the Jets. At least they

    resembled a competitive team, an important fi rst step in its strive to return to

    respectability. Our database reminds us that 1-win teams (from the previous

    season) off a loss taking 6 or more points from a team off a win in which it

    scored more than 20 points are 10-2 ATS. That fi ts nicely into Miami’s 10-1

    ATS mark as a non-division dog of 6 or more points. A huge 5-0 turnover

    edge propelled Arizona to a 23-13 win over the Niners, a game in which San

    Francisco outgained the Cardinals. Zona’s 1-12 ATS mark as a favorite of 7 or

    more points cements it. Hang up the sign... we’re going fi shing.

    NY JETS over New England by 6

    My, oh my. The best laid plans are now history with Pats QB Tom Brady done

    for the season. Bill Belichick must now turn to Matt Cassel, a quarterback who

    hasn’t played a full game of signifi cance since high school, in hopes of getting

    his team back to the playoffs sans its Superstar. The truth of the matter is the line

    in this game has likely shifted 7 points because of Brady’s injury. Our AWESOME

    ANGLE (see page 2) doesn’t mind and neither do the Jets. Sure, New England’s

    20 straight game regular season win streak is on the line today but the bottom

    line is one team is shell-shocked while the other is giddy at the prospect of its

    new Hall of Fame QB now favored to lead its team to the promised land. This is

    simple: Brett Favre versus Matt Cassel. Case closed.

    4 BEST BET

    Yet another Game Two matchup involving teams off disparate results

    last Sunday. The Joe Flacco era got off to a resounding start when he

    combined with Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to become the 2nd NFL quarterback

    tandem since 1971 to win debut games on Week One (FYI: Archie

    Manning and Jim Plunkett were the others). It should be noted that

    NFL teams taking to the non-division road in Game Two off a SU home

    dog win are a meager 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS if they were a losing team

    the prior year. The Texans will look to their 7-1 ATS mark at home under

    Gary Kubiak against opponents off a win to get back on track quickly.

    It’s never hard fading rookie QB’s in their fi rst road outing, especially

    those with a 63.7 QB rating. We’re deep in the heart of…

    HOUSTON over Baltimore by 13

    DENVER over San Diego by 4

    The 2nd of season-opening division games fi nds the Broncos looking to

    atone for a pair of disturbing losses suffered against the Chargers last year.

    Those occurred when San Diego held Denver to a fi eld goal in each game,

    thus contributing to a disappointing 7-9 effort last year. Rest assured Mike

    Shanahan is aware of what happened and he’s mad-as-hell about it. Shanahan

    is 23-13-2 ATS in his career with division revenge, including 12-4 ATS when the

    foe is off a loss. On the other side of the coin is Norv Turner. Aside from being

    a slow starter (13-18 SU and ATS in fi rst two games of the season), he is just

    28-42-2 ATS in division play. Worse, Turner is 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in his initial

    division game of the season in his NFL head coaching career. We like Mike.

    Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND by 7

    When a team more than doubles its win total, while going from loser to

    winner from one season to the next, and its defense declined it’s surely a sign

    of an overrated club. Meet the Cleveland Browns. They were exposed last

    week (we bit, we’re sorry to say) and don’t fi gure to put the pieces back in

    place anytime soon. Not with a unit that is without three of its top offensive

    threats (KR Joshua Cribbs, WR’s Donte Stallworth and Joe Jurevicious). To

    make matters worse, they host a team that has bullied and dominated them

    like a red-headed stepchild (Steelers 8-1 ATS last nine in the series, including

    5-0 here). Until they return to health and start playing some defense we’ll

    keep them on our ‘off-list’ for the time being.

    DALLAS over Philadelphia by 7

    Impressive outings by both teams puts this game in the national spotlight,

    under the Monday Night lights to boot. Good numbers abound for both

    sides, too. The Eagles are 11-6 SU and ATS on Mondays behind Andy Reid,

    including 7-0 SU and ATS when playing off a win of 7 or more points. They are

    also 19-12 SU and 21-10 ATS on the division road under Andy. The Cowboys

    counter at 17-11 ATS in Monday night division duels, including 9-3 in Games

    1 thru 3. Wade Phillips chips in at 12-3 SU and ATS at home off a win versus

    an opponent off a win, including 6-1 in division games. His 1-6 ATS mark in

    Monday night games is the only negative note.

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 10 2008 11:06pm
15. 0 likes

    PLAYBOOK

    Thursday, September 11th

    RUTGERS over North Carolina by 7

    Scarlet Knights last took on UNC in the 2006 season opener for both teams,

    stepping on the favored Heels at Chapel Hill 21-16. Since that meeting Rutgers’

    Greg Schiano has gone 18-8 SU & 14-10 ATS while UNC is just 8-16 SU and 10-

    11 ATS. RU immediately felt the loss of ’07 star RB Ray Rice to graduation in

    its season opener against Fresno State while Pat Hill’s Bulldogs found a Ricefree

    diet to their liking – FSU stifl ed the Knights 24-7, outrushing Rutgers by

    100 yards. Carolina’s lone opponent so far in 2008, 1-AA McNeese State, gave

    the Tar Heels all they could handle before falling 35-27 (Cowboys outgained

    UNC in fi rst downs by 22 to 13 while running up an 11-minute advantage on

    the game clock). It’s good for Rutgers coach Greg Schiano that tonight’s foe

    doesn’t reside in the Big East: he’s a sizzling 20-6-1 ATS at home when laying

    less than 17 points to a non-conference adversary. Those numbers fi t like a

    glove into Carolina’s 0-6 SU and ATS efforts lately against Big East foes – but

    one troubling stat keeps us from slipping on the armor. UNC coach Davis owns

    an impressive 68-19 SU and 56-19 career ATS mark when his teams score 21

    or more points (that angle went 3-1 ATS in 2007). With Rutgers giving up just

    over 22 PPG over the past 14 games, we may have to sit this one out.

    Friday, September 12th

    SOUTH FLORIDA over Kansas by 3

    Seven years ago this matchup would have been one of those ‘added game’

    curiosities – but tonight it’s one of the hottest tickets in Orlando, home of

    arguably the second-best college football team in the Sunshine State. Both USF

    and Kansas desperately want to be included in college football’s elite and this

    little donnybrook should show us if either squad warrants that type of talk.

    We know the Jayhawks are at the top of the ATS heap, currently on a superb

    12-2 spread run, and KU has cashed all three prior meetings with the Big East.

    Those numbers lose a bit of luster, though, when stood next to the ‘Hawks’

    dismal 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS mark playing their fi rst road game without rest. The

    Bulls failed to cover as 2-TD chalk in their thrilling OT win over UCF but South

    Florida overwhelmed the Knights 504-226 in total yards. The Kansas defense

    has held its fi rst two opponents to a measly 10 points but Mark Mangino’s stop

    unit hasn’t seen an offense this lethal since going to war with Missouri in last

    year’s Big 12 North Championship. Tough to buck the Bulls when they’re 10-2

    SU recently at Raymond James Stadium – and just as tough to fade a Kansas

    contingent that’s covered seven straight as a road dog. Your call.

    Saturday, September 13th

    Navy over DUKE by 3

    Wow, if new Duke coach David Cutcliffe had beaten Northwestern last

    week, he would’ve equaled the Blue Devils’ victory total for the previous

    THREE seasons (2 wins) in just two weeks! Duke lost its home opener to the

    Wildcats 24-20, but Cutcliffe cashed as a 5-point dog. Today the Blue Devils

    fi nd themselves in a seldom-experienced role: chalk. Only once in the past

    four years has Duke laid points and they lost the whole game; in fact, the

    last 10 times the Devils have been favored, they’ve failed to cover a single

    contest. That’s music to the Midshipmen’s ears… especially after last week’s

    frustrating 35-23 loss to Ball State. Navy’s reliable ground attack rolled up

    346 yards rushing against the ‘Nads but blew numerous second-half scoring

    opportunities: the Mids were stopped twice on downs and failed a third time

    thanks to a costly red zone interception. The points should come more easily

    today in a series that Navy has dominated (they’ve covered four of the last

    fi ve at Wallace Wade Stadium). With the visitors’ cargo including a stout 23-9

    ATS record away after a SU loss and a 6-2 ATS mark versus the ACC, we expect

    the Middies to steam into Durham and weigh anchor three hours later before

    sailing away with the outright win.

    UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

    Rice over VANDERBILT by 3

    Vandy coach Bobby Johnson is off to his fi rst 2-0 season start since 2005

    but not without some help. If you watched last week’s 24-17 win over

    South Carolina, you know the Gamecocks were victimized by some

    extremely biased offi ciating, especially in the crucial second half. Even

    so, few could have predicted that this Week Three matchup between

    two traditionally downtrodden programs would emerge as a battle of

    2008 unbeatens. Rice blasted SMU 56-27 on opening day then rode a

    strong 29-point fourth quarter to surge past Memphis 42-35 (69-yard

    interception return for a TD with just 11 seconds remaining stunned

    the Tigers). Our powerful database tells us today’s game – regardless of

    Zebra interference – should go the way of the Owls: Game Three teams

    off BB SU victories taking on a non-conference foe on the road stand a

    respectable 19-8 ATS. The Commies’ litany of past pointspread failures

    only reinforces our thinking. Teams equaling Vandy’s back-to-back SU

    dog wins are a weak 3-7 ATS playing a non-league foe in Game Three.

    Even worse, VU has struggled to a 3-13 SU and 4-11 ATS record off

    previous consecutive wins (0-4 SUATS last four) and the Commodores

    have laid a big fat egg recently as home chalk of 17 or fewer points,

    burying their backers with an 0-10 mark. When the gun sounds here, we

    think Vandy will be singing the blues in Music City.

    Auburn over MISSISSIPPI ST by 13

    With the offense putting the ball on the carpet and a QB controversy at full

    boil, Auburn turned to its punishing defense to pull out Saturday’s 27-13

    win over Southern Miss. The Tigers’ stop unit – which had pitched a shutout

    in the fi rst 102 minutes of the season – yielded a pair of 4th quarter TDs

    to the Golden Eagles before fi nally slamming the door. Tommy Tuberville

    immediately named QB Chris Todd as the starter for this week’s ‘circled in

    red’ revenge showdown with Missy State. 2007’s shocking 19-14 defeat as 13-

    point chalk on the plains marked Tubs’ fi rst loss to the Bulldogs in seven years

    (he’d gone 5-0 SU and ATS in the previous fi ve confrontations) and the ATS

    archives tell us the Tigers should get their pound of fl esh at Starkville. Aubbie

    has ruled the series recently, covering fi ve of six tries and they’ve cashed four

    straight tickets in their initial trip away from Jordan-Hare Stadium. Sylvester

    Croom’s Bulldogs, the most improved team in the SEC last year, look to be

    reverting to their previous level of mediocrity after dropping the season

    opener to lightly-regarded Louisiana Tech before sleepwalking through a 34-

    10 win over outmanned SE Louisiana last week. MSU is more bark than bite

    when installed as a home dog of more than 7 points (1-5 ATS) and Croom

    has limped to a 4-12 spread mark when losing SU as a conference pup. In this

    latest battle between cats and dogs, the Tigers should prevail.

    Ball St over AKRON by 3

    Ball State QB Nate Davis continued his great start in 2008, passing for 326 yards

    and 4 TDs to lead his Gonads to a 2-0 start with a victory over Navy. But success

    does not necessarily breed more success with the Testicular Ones when they

    show up as road favorites off a SU win – they won their previous four games in

    that role SU but failed to grab the money in a single contest. Another nugget

    from our PLAYBOOK database reveals that Game Three bowlers laying points

    on the highway off a SUATS victory have stumbled to a paltry 18-38 ATS mark

    if they scored 34 or more points in their previous game. Akron gained 478

    yards against Syracuse last Saturday and the Zips showed enough tenacity to

    snap a late 28-28 tie en route to their 42-28 win. Akron coach J.D. Brookhart

    loves being a MAC home dog when taking on a foe off a SU win, covering four

    of his last fi ve tries. With the ‘Nads now a shriveling 2-7 ATS off consecutive

    wins when taking on a league opponent, we like the Rubber City boys to cash

    today’s check. Like Doctor Evil frequently says to his son, Scott, “Zip it.”

    Toledo over E MICHIGAN by 1

    More MAC madness featuring a pair of squads that were crushed last week

    by a combined score of 83-26. The EMU rush defense looked to be in a state

    of foreclosure against Michigan State, allowing the Spartans 286 yards and

    six TDs on the ground. This sort of performance should come as no surprise to

    Eagles fans: Eastern Michigan was scorched for an unbelievable 600 total yards

    in 07’s 52-28 loss to the Rockets. Stats like that should get the fuel fl owing for

    the Toledo offense after being held to just 74 yards on 24 carries by Arizona’s

    Desert Swarm. Tom Amstutz and company have won and covered fi ve of the

    last six series scuffl es but the Big Boy’s troubling home-road dichotomy – 26-

    11 ATS home compared to 13-26-1 ATS away – puts this on hold for now.

    Don’t be surprised to see Toledo fl ip-fl op to the favorite’s role by game time.

    MISSOURI over Nevada by 28

    After laboring in near-obscurity for six seasons at Columbia, Missouri coach

    Gary Pinkel has unleashed a genuine offensive monster, racking up an average

    of 40 PPG in 2007 and opening the new campaign with a pair of 52-pointers.

    Mizzou’s 4-0 ATS record against the WAC coupled with the luxury of playing

    the second of three consecutive home games (Tigers won’t play outside the

    state of Missouri until October 4th) should point the way to another lop-sided

    win, right? Maybe not. Nevada’s 35-19 home loss to Texas Tech was much

    closer than the fi nal score might indicate. The Wolf Pack actually outgained

    the much ballyhooed Red Raider offense and appeared to have taken a 15-14

    lead when QB Colin Kaepernick scored from 3 yards out. But a subsequent

    challenge and lengthy review ended with the play being ruled a fumble and

    the ball was awarded to Texas Tech. While we respect such scrappy play by

    the underdog lupines, heading into Missouri for their initial road game of

    the new season does not appear to be the optimum situation to risk our

    hard-earned dough. At the same time, laying almost four TDs to a capable

    opponent is not our idea of sound fi nancial planning, either. Pass.

    TEXAS TECH over Smu by 41

    When SMU emptied the vault to lure new coach June Jones from Hawaii to

    Dallas, they knew they’d get one of college football’s most exciting, highscoring

    offenses. Apparently the Mustang brain trust overlooked the fact that

    they’d also be getting a defense that Jones tended to treat like a red-headed

    stepchild. Two games and 92 points later (SMU defense gave up 36 points last

    week in win over 1-AA Texas State), Mustang fans realize they’ll probably be

    facing a ‘last team with the ball wins’ scenario until Jones’ offensive transition

    is complete. A defense with more holes than John Dillinger’s corpse is not what

    you want to take into Lubbock to face the aforementioned Red Raiders of Mike

    Leach. Tech has bested the Ponies in three straight on this fi eld and should be

    champing at the bit to get after a squad that’s covered just ONCE in 10 tries

    against Big 12 opposition. One look at our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3 and it’s

    obvious these Mustangs should be herded into the corral with little resistance.

    TTRR QB Graham Harrell did not enjoy one of his more memorable outings

    against Nevada last week; he’ll make amends here in a big-time blowout.

    NEBRASKA over New Mexico St by 31

    While most college teams have a pair of games under their belt already this

    season, the Aggies from Las Cruces have yet to take the fi eld. After their

    9/4 opening game against Nicholls State was cancelled due to the arrival of

    Hurricane Gustav, Hal Mumme’s troops must now make their ’08 debut at

    inhospitable Memorial Stadium in Lincoln. (FYI: season-opening dogs are 0-6

    ATS versus teams playing their 3rd game of the year). The 2-0 Huskers haven’t

    exactly faced powerhouse competition so far, whipping Western Michigan in

    their opener before struggling to subdue San Jose State last week. With huge

    games awaiting Nebraska against Virginia Tech and Missouri, we’d love to run

    with the Aggies and the big points here but Mumme’s 10-23-1 ATS career mark

    in games against an opponent off a SU win tells us different. The Corn Boys

    have made short work in the past of WAC teams foolish enough to venture

    into Big Red’s lair, going 14-0 SU and 8-4 ATS on their home turf. Lay it.

    Byu over UCLA by 4

    The Cougars escaped Seattle last week by virtue of one of the worst pieces

    of offi ciating in college football history. Trailing 28-21 in the fi nal minute of

    play, Washington’s Jake Locker moved his team deep into BYU territory and

    scored on a rollout with just seconds remaining on the clock. Unfortunately,

    Locker reacted to the clutch TD by fl ipping the football over his shoulder before

    celebrating with jubilant teammates in the end zone – and the damnable yellow

    hanky was tossed onto the fi eld. After being penalized 15 yards for ‘excessive

    celebration’, the Huskies’ lengthy PAT was blocked and BYU stole the victory,

    extending the nation’s longest winning streak to 12 games. That skein could be

    in jeopardy today against a resurgent UCLA squad that upset Tennessee in new

    coach Rick Neuheisel’s opener. The Bruins have mauled the Mormons in fi ve

    straight regular season meetings and are aching to get revenge for last year’s

    17-16 defeat in the Las Vegas Bowl. Check out what the visitors are bringing

    to Provo: 8-1 ATS as non-conference dogs of 3 or more points, 8-2 ATS away

    versus a non-Pac 10 foe when seeking revenge and 8-3 SUATS when taking on

    MWC foes. Whew! Despite dominating its own conference for several years,

    the Cougars don’t match up well with the PAC 10 at home, covering just three

    of the last 10 contests. Neuheisel has had an extra week to prepare so we’ll be

    surprised if this game doesn’t go to the wire, too.

    Oregon over PURDUE by 3

    After blasting their fi rst two opponents by a combined score of 110-34, Mike

    Belloti’s offense looks like the most well-oiled machine in the nation right

    now. When we note the Ducks’ super 9-0 ATS log in their fi rst road game and

    an equally profi table 8-1 ATS mark against non-conference teams, everything

    seems to point in the feathered ones’ direction here, too. But as Lee Corso

    would say, “Not so fast, my friend!” Game Three bowlers (see Ball St vs Akron)

    like Oregon who are favored on the road off a SUATS win are a weak 18-38

    versus the number if they scored 34 or more points in their last outing (OU

    registered 66 against Utah State). Purdue sports a solid 4-1 ATS record as nonconference

    home dogs of 4 or more points and the negative press that the Big

    10 has received over the past few weeks will add value to the Boilermakers’

    side here. 2008 marks Purdue coach Joe Tiller’s fi nal season on the sidelines

    at West Lafayette and we must respect the Tiller-man’s success at home – 34-

    16 ATS playing at Ross-Ade Stadium off a SU win. Despite the fact that Tiller

    takes the fi eld today as a lame duck coach, we think his Boilers will slow the

    Quack Attack enough to walk away with the cash at game’s end.

    TEXAS over Arkansas by 24

    Recent medical reports indicate the sale of pacemakers and defi brillators have

    soared in the state of Arkansas over the previous two weeks, a direct result

    of the cardiac Razorbacks snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in a pair

    of heart-stopping thrillers. New coach Bobby Petrino has certainly given Hog

    fans a full 60 minutes of football each week as Arkansas has had to mount

    two fourth-quarter comebacks over inferior competition to post its 2-0 start.

    The Razorbacks take a giant step up in class this Saturday when they fl y into

    Austin to square off with former Southwest Conference foe Texas. Bevo has

    not been as genial a host as Arky, stampeding UT’s opening two opponents by

    a 94-23 margin, but the ATS archives sound a warning to those who think the

    ‘Horns will duplicate those performances against the Hogs. Texas has dropped

    six in a row ATS versus the SEC and Mack Brown’s team is a money-burning

    3-7 ATS in Game Three of the season. Don’t take that as an endorsement of

    Arkansas, though. The Hogs are a miserable 1-6 ATS in Game Three and have

    lost four of fi ve as underdogs playing off back-to-back homers. The current

    line of Texas –23 doesn’t leave us much wiggle room so we’ll watch.

    Georgia over S CAROLINA by 10

    Even though the season is only two weeks old, Gamecock QB problems are

    driving coach Steve Spurrier crazy – NOT a situation he wants to be in with

    2nd-ranked Georgia set to invade Columbia. Totals players take note: this

    has been one brutal, low-scoring series with the last 10 meetings averaging

    a 17-11 fi nal in favor of the Dawgs. And as much as we respect the Ole Ball

    Coach, South Carolina could easily get cold-cocked today. The Bulldogs owe

    SC for last season’s devastating 16-12 defeat, Georgia’s only loss last year

    between the hedges and the Gamecocks own an awful 0-5 ATS record as

    home underdogs against an SEC foe playing with revenge. True, the Dawgs

    are facing the same ‘Game Three Bowler’ angle that applies to the Oregon-

    Purdue matchup but this Georgia squad has got South Carolina outclassed

    at virtually every position. In what promises to be a good, old-fashioned SEC

    slugfest, the visitors from the Peach State should end up ruling the roost.

    Air Force over HOUSTON by 3

    A tip of the hat goes to coach Troy Calhoun and his Flyboys. After losing

    4-year starting QB Shaun Carney and star RB Chad Hall, we were convinced

    that Air Force would suffer a sophomore slump in Calhoun’s second season at

    the controls. Instead, the Force followed an expected 41-7 thrashing of lowly

    Southern Utah by going to Laramie last Saturday and totally shutting down

    Wyoming’s offense in a 23-3 shocker. With the Falcon defense exceeding

    expectations, we don’t mind taking 6 points on the road today against the

    Cougars. New Houston coach Kevin Sumlin must do a rapid about-face to

    prepare for an offense that stands in direct contrast to the wide-open

    Oklahoma State attack he saw last week (Coogs ripped for 56 points). Game

    Three stats favor the airmen: they’re 7-1 SUATS in that role this decade while

    new coaches at home like Sumlin are just 10-23-1 ATS when facing down a foe

    off a SUATS win. The bottom line is Air Force can slow this game to a crawl

    and frustrate the Cougars into their second loss of the season.

    OREGON ST over Hawaii by 13

    Poor Mike Riley. He’s probably already checking future schedules to make

    sure he doesn’t open a season with back-to-back roadies… especially after

    stumbling against Stanford in his PAC 10 opener, then getting eviscerated

    45-14 at Penn State. But don’t expect the Beavers to go into hibernation just

    yet… not when the host in OSU battles with the WAC stands a strong 13-5

    ATS. These two last put on the gloves late in 2006 when visiting Oregon State

    beat Hawaii 35-32 as 8-point underdogs. The guys with the funny shirts are

    still trying to forge an identity under new coach Greg McMakin and Corvallis

    is not exactly the easiest venue on this year’s slate. With Hawaii just 1-6 ATS off

    a SU win when playing a PAC 10 foe and the Beavers 6-1 ATS at home before

    continuing the Trojan Wars, some home-cooked pineapple could be just what

    OSU needs to raise the decibel level at Reser Stadium this weekend.

    FRESNO ST over Wisconsin by 3

    Another immensely intriguing matchup between schools that occasionally

    cross paths, this contest of nationally-ranked teams – along with Ohio State-

    USC – should give us some insight into the ability of the Big 10’s power teams

    to stand up against prolifi c West Coast offenses. The Badgers fell behind 14-

    0 last week at Madison to sacrifi cial lamb Marshall but turned on the jets

    when Herd coach Mark Snyder continued to stack his defense at the line of

    scrimmage in an attempt to pressure inexperienced QB Allan Evridge. “We

    wanted to see if he could throw the football,” dead-panned Snyder, “and he

    did.” Evridge got hot, opening previously non-existent running lanes for RB

    P.J. Hill and Wisconsin scattered the Herd with 51 unanswered points (Evridge

    fi nished 17-of-26 for 308 yards while Hill rushed for 210). Still, we don’t

    think the Badgers will go California-dreamin’ against the bruising Bulldogs.

    If Wisky remains the favorite, they’ll fi ght a 1-5 ATS log as non-league RF’s

    when playing off a double-digit win at a venue west of the Mississippi. Bret

    Bielema’s Badgers also fall prey to the previously noted Game Three Bowler

    angle (18-38 ATS) and must face a hungry Fresno State squad that’s covered

    seven of its last eight as non-conference home dogs. We all know Badgers are

    tough protecting their dens but get ‘em out of their territory and a pack of

    wild dogs will bring ‘em down every time.

    Penn St over SYRACUSE by 25

    If the great William Shakespeare were a modern day sportswriter, no doubt

    he would’ve already penned a tragedy surrounding the fall of the Syracuse

    football empire and its tormented king, coach Greg Robinson. Now 7-30 SU

    following this year’s 0-2 start, Robinson at least got to see his offense put

    28 points on the scoreboard against Akron. Unfortunately, the Zips posted

    42 of their own and turned the once raucous Carrier Dome into a cavernous

    mausoleum. As a result, this showdown of former Eastern football powers

    fi nds the fading Orange taking 26 points from the invading Lions. Believe it or

    not, the history books support SU today: the Orange is 23-5 ATS in the second

    of back-to-back home games and Robinson owns a 6-2 ATS mark in the dome

    against non-Big East opponents. Need more ammunition? Penn State has

    failed to cover in its last four road openers and owns an embarrassing 1-9 ATS

    mark lately against the Big East. Even so, we wouldn’t touch the ‘Cuse today

    if Macbeth’s ghost himself advised us to do so. All of which begs the question

    concerning the doomed Robinson: when doth falleth the gauntlet?

    NOTRE DAME over Michigan by 6

    Charlie Weis and his Irish may have used up a season’s worth of luck last

    week when they barely edged lowly San Diego State. Leading 13-7 in the

    fourth quarter, the Aztecs were inches away from a game-clinching TD when

    Brandon Sullivan fumbled and Notre Dame recovered in their own end zone.

    Minutes later, Irish QB Jimmy Clausen connected on a 38-yard scoring pass

    to Golden Tate and the home team took the lead for good. Even though

    the 21-13 win sunk a boatload of handicappers who expected Notre Dame

    to open 2008 with a rout (Irish were favored by 21 points), the Dame can

    actually claim a 3-game win streak heading into today’s game – and remains

    a ‘Mission Team’ with a long list of paybacks. Not coincidentally, Michigan

    sits at the top of that list following 2007’s merciless 38-0 pounding of the

    Irish at the Big House. But the Wolverines aren’t exactly in synch themselves,

    struggling to adjust to new coach Rich Rodriguez’s complex offensive

    schemes while eking out a 1-1 start. The Maize-and-Blue owns some horrible

    numbers away from Ann Arbor, including 0-7 ATS as non-conference road

    chalk and 1-9 ATS in the season’s fi rst road game. Meanwhile, Notre Dame

    has fashioned a highly-profi table 13-4-1 spread mark as home dogs when

    not playing off a loss. With Charlie “To hell with Michigan” Weis dropping

    two straight to the Wolves in embarrassing fashion, this could easily be

    Notre Dame’s biggest game of the year… until next week… and the week

    after.

    IOWA over Iowa St by 17

    Of the many accomplishments that can be attributed to head coach Kirk

    Ferentz since his arrival in Iowa City, beating Iowa State is not one of them. In

    nine cracks against the hated Cyclones, Ferentz has managed to deliver just

    THREE victories – despite being favored for the last seven years! It happened

    in 2007 when Iowa State stunned the Hawkeyes 15-13 as 17-point home

    dogs. However, that result could play to Iowa’s advantage here as the Hawks

    have major revenge along with some major value in the line: they’re laying

    fewer points at home this year with a much better team than they did at ISU

    last season. Unfortunately, we can’t risk the big bucks here because of the

    one-sided series history. The Cyclones have rung the register in nine of the

    previous ten meetings and covered all fi ve of their recent trips to Kinnick

    Stadium. Still, Ferentz has gone 38-19-1 ATS at home with the Hawkeyes and

    seems to be righting the ship after two consecutive non-winning campaigns.

    Point a gun in our direction and we’ll fade an Iowa State squad that’s just 6-18

    ATS when they lose SU as a dog versus an avenging team.

    VA TECH over Ga Tech by 11

    So much for the “Sean Glennon is my guy” QB plan hatched by Virginia

    Tech head coach Frank Beamer. Following the Hokies’ season opening upset

    by East Carolina, Beamer scrapped plans to redshirt Tyrod Taylor and rode

    the quarterback’s 112 rushing yards to a 24-7 win over Furman. And after

    Paul Johnson improved to 2-0 in his fi rst year at Georgia Tech by beating

    Boston College, we’re sure some folks at Syracuse are asking, “Why didn’t we

    get THAT guy?” Johnson will face the biggest test of his young ACC career

    here at Blacksburg – our PLAYBOOK database warns us that new coaches in

    Game Three off a SU dog win are a woeful 1-11 ATS on the road against an

    opponent off a win of 7 or more points. Tech has also cashed in four of the

    past fi ve series games and stands 9-3 ATS when taking on a revenge-seeking

    conference adversary. Best of all, VT coach Beamer is the answer to this week’s

    TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. Hokies gobble up the Yellow Jackets today.

    CLEMSON over NC State by 21

    Strictly from a numbers standpoint, the Tigers’ ACC opener looks like a

    Mexican standoff (can we still use that expression in the Hispanic States of

    America?). Good stats abound on both sides: Clemmie has cashed in four of

    the last fi ve meetings but NC State has grabbed the money in four of its last

    fi ve trips to Death Valley. The Wolfpack is also 8-1 ATS as conference dogs of

    8 or more points but the Tigers can answer with a 4-1 ATS mark when playing

    an avenging ACC opponent. New Pack coach Tom O’Brien edged Tommy

    Bowden in a pair of closely contested thrillers while at Boston College but he

    also got ripped to shreds by Clemson at Raleigh last year, 42-20. The truth is

    the Tigers have a huge edge athletically and may be anxious to make amends

    for their season-opening faux pas against Alabama. Lay it if you play it.

    W Michigan over IDAHO by 7

    The Broncos are another of our ‘Mission Teams’ – suffered a losing season

    the previous year after back-to-back winning campaigns – but they certainly

    haven’t played like it, opening 0-2 ATS and ITS (in the stats). The road to

    redemption could easily start here in Moscow, Idaho, where WMU catches

    the host Vandals celebrating a rare SU victory. Yes, last week the Potato

    Heads (Idaho) beat their in-state rival Tater Heads (Idaho State) and snapped

    a depressing 11-game losing streak. However, even counting that victory, the

    Vandals have won just TWO of their previous 19 games. We think you should

    forget about his, drag your own Mr. Potato Head out of the closet and see if

    you can make him look like the presidential candidate of your choice.

    C Michigan over OHIO U by 6

    Ohio University was poised to pull off the Upset of the New Millennium last

    week in Columbus but the Bobcats, as your local real estate agent might say,

    couldn’t close the deal. Yes, 34-point underdog Ohio actually led the mighty

    Buckeyes 14-12 after three quarters but succumbed to reality in the fi nal

    stanza when Ohio State struck for 14 unanswered points. The 26-14 Bobcat

    loss means they will either (a) play inspired football on the heels of their

    miraculous performance or (b) show up as fl at as a Ross Perot crew-cut. We’re

    guessing the latter, especially with the Chippewas winning and covering their

    last four MAC openers. After getting trounced 56-17 by Georgia last week,

    the prospect of taking on the Bobcats today should be like eyesight to the

    blind for CMU. Check on the status of starting Ohio QB Theo Scott who left

    early with a shoulder injury against OSU and did not return.

    3 BEST BET

    Looking at last week’s results, you may fi nd this pick harder to swallow

    than a big dose of castor oil. That’s okay with us because we hope the

    public drives this infl ated number even higher. No doubt the Golden

    Bears are off to a great start but this West Coast / East Coast traveler is

    not so desirable off last week’s conference opening rout at Washington

    State (Cal’s previous excursion east of Ole Man River resulted in a 17-

    point loss at Tennessee as 2.5 point favorites), especially with a 12

    Noon ET / 9 AM PT body clock time kickoff slated. And as we’ve seen

    several times already in this week’s writeups, the ‘Game Three Bower’

    angle also goes against California here. Maryland’s unexpected defeat

    by Middle Tennessee State was a huge embarrassment for Ralph

    Friedgen’s program but the Rotund One owns a sweet 8-3 ATS record

    at home if the Terps are .500 or less, including 5-1 when playing off a

    loss. Even better is this database special that tells us underdogs off a SU

    loss as double-digit RF’s are a sterling 17-4 ATS when playing a foe off

    consecutive SUATS wins. THIS JUST IN: ACC dogs have clawed their way

    to a 13-3-2 spread mark against PAC 10 foes, a number that tightens to

    7-1 if the game takes place in the regular season. Fear the turtle!

    California over MARYLAND by 3

    BAYLOR over Wash St by 1

    This line shows such a huge lack of respect for the Baylor program that we’re

    surprised Rodney Dangerfi eld himself isn’t spinning in his grave. After getting

    obliterated by Oklahoma State (39-13) and then California (66-3), Washington

    State takes to the road for the fi rst time this season and somehow ends up as

    road chalk over 1-1 Baylor! WTF? Of the last 20 teams to hit the highway off

    a loss of 60 or more points, only FIVE have managed to get the money. We

    also feel that new Bears head coach Art Briles is just as savvy as WSU’s rookie

    skipper, Paul Wulff – even if Baylor does bring a 1-5 SU record against the PAC

    10 into this contest. However, no amount of discussion will convince us to

    seriously consider either side in this clunker. Pass.

    5 BEST BET

    When Stanford surprised Oregon State in a hard-fought PAC 10 opener,

    there was a fl eeting instant when Cardinal fans thought, “Maybe THIS

    is the year.” Not. Reality came crashing down on Jim Harbaugh’s team

    last week in the desert when Arizona State toppled The Tree, 41-17.

    Although the program has gained a lot of notoriety since Harbaugh

    took over in 2007, the fact of the matter is they’ve been pushed all over

    the fi eld. Stanford has lost the stats in 12 of its 14 games with Harbaugh

    – including 0-5 ITS away – with an average stat loss of a whopping 174

    YPG (lost by 239 yards at ASU and 189 yards in upset of OSU). To make

    matters worse, Stanford travels to Texas cattle country off back-to-back

    double conference revengers to open the season! After feasting on

    Stephen F. Austin last week 66-7, the Froggies know the last eight home

    teams to play off a 60-point win are 6-1-1 ATS. Overlooked TCU head

    coach Gary Patterson is 13-7 at Fort Worth versus .500 > opponents,

    plus 21 of his 31 SU wins have come by 14 or more points. The Clincher?

    Non-conference HF’s of 18 or less points off a win of 50 > points are 27-7

    ATS since 1980, including 19-3 if they won 8 or more games the previous

    year. GO FROGS!

    TCU over Stanford by 25

    VA TECH over Ga Tech by 11

    So much for the “Sean Glennon is my guy” QB plan hatched by Virginia

    Tech head coach Frank Beamer. Following the Hokies’ season opening upset

    by East Carolina, Beamer scrapped plans to redshirt Tyrod Taylor and rode

    the quarterback’s 112 rushing yards to a 24-7 win over Furman. And after

    Paul Johnson improved to 2-0 in his fi rst year at Georgia Tech by beating

    Boston College, we’re sure some folks at Syracuse are asking, “Why didn’t we

    get THAT guy?” Johnson will face the biggest test of his young ACC career

    here at Blacksburg – our PLAYBOOK database warns us that new coaches in

    Game Three off a SU dog win are a woeful 1-11 ATS on the road against an

    opponent off a win of 7 or more points. Tech has also cashed in four of the

    past fi ve series games and stands 9-3 ATS when taking on a revenge-seeking

    conference adversary. Best of all, VT coach Beamer is the answer to this week’s

    TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. Hokies gobble up the Yellow Jackets today.

    CLEMSON over NC State by 21

    Strictly from a numbers standpoint, the Tigers’ ACC opener looks like a

    Mexican standoff (can we still use that expression in the Hispanic States of

    America?). Good stats abound on both sides: Clemmie has cashed in four of

    the last fi ve meetings but NC State has grabbed the money in four of its last

    fi ve trips to Death Valley. The Wolfpack is also 8-1 ATS as conference dogs of

    8 or more points but the Tigers can answer with a 4-1 ATS mark when playing

    an avenging ACC opponent. New Pack coach Tom O’Brien edged Tommy

    Bowden in a pair of closely contested thrillers while at Boston College but he

    also got ripped to shreds by Clemson at Raleigh last year, 42-20. The truth is

    the Tigers have a huge edge athletically and may be anxious to make amends

    for their season-opening faux pas against Alabama. Lay it if you play it.

    W Michigan over IDAHO by 7

    The Broncos are another of our ‘Mission Teams’ – suffered a losing season

    the previous year after back-to-back winning campaigns – but they certainly

    haven’t played like it, opening 0-2 ATS and ITS (in the stats). The road to

    redemption could easily start here in Moscow, Idaho, where WMU catches

    the host Vandals celebrating a rare SU victory. Yes, last week the Potato

    Heads (Idaho) beat their in-state rival Tater Heads (Idaho State) and snapped

    a depressing 11-game losing streak. However, even counting that victory, the

    Vandals have won just TWO of their previous 19 games. We think you should

    forget about his, drag your own Mr. Potato Head out of the closet and see if

    you can make him look like the presidential candidate of your choice.

    C Michigan over OHIO U by 6

    Ohio University was poised to pull off the Upset of the New Millennium last

    week in Columbus but the Bobcats, as your local real estate agent might say,

    couldn’t close the deal. Yes, 34-point underdog Ohio actually led the mighty

    Buckeyes 14-12 after three quarters but succumbed to reality in the fi nal

    stanza when Ohio State struck for 14 unanswered points. The 26-14 Bobcat

    loss means they will either (a) play inspired football on the heels of their

    miraculous performance or (b) show up as fl at as a Ross Perot crew-cut. We’re

    guessing the latter, especially with the Chippewas winning and covering their

    last four MAC openers. After getting trounced 56-17 by Georgia last week,

    the prospect of taking on the Bobcats today should be like eyesight to the

    blind for CMU. Check on the status of starting Ohio QB Theo Scott who left

    early with a shoulder injury against OSU and did not return.

    3 BEST BET

    Looking at last week’s results, you may fi nd this pick harder to swallow

    than a big dose of castor oil. That’s okay with us because we hope the

    public drives this infl ated number even higher. No doubt the Golden

    Bears are off to a great start but this West Coast / East Coast traveler is

    not so desirable off last week’s conference opening rout at Washington

    State (Cal’s previous excursion east of Ole Man River resulted in a 17-

    point loss at Tennessee as 2.5 point favorites), especially with a 12

    Noon ET / 9 AM PT body clock time kickoff slated. And as we’ve seen

    several times already in this week’s writeups, the ‘Game Three Bower’

    angle also goes against California here. Maryland’s unexpected defeat

    by Middle Tennessee State was a huge embarrassment for Ralph

    Friedgen’s program but the Rotund One owns a sweet 8-3 ATS record

    at home if the Terps are .500 or less, including 5-1 when playing off a

    loss. Even better is this database special that tells us underdogs off a SU

    loss as double-digit RF’s are a sterling 17-4 ATS when playing a foe off

    consecutive SUATS wins. THIS JUST IN: ACC dogs have clawed their way

    to a 13-3-2 spread mark against PAC 10 foes, a number that tightens to

    7-1 if the game takes place in the regular season. Fear the turtle!

    California over MARYLAND by 3

    BAYLOR over Wash St by 1

    This line shows such a huge lack of respect for the Baylor program that we’re

    surprised Rodney Dangerfi eld himself isn’t spinning in his grave. After getting

    obliterated by Oklahoma State (39-13) and then California (66-3), Washington

    State takes to the road for the fi rst time this season and somehow ends up as

    road chalk over 1-1 Baylor! WTF? Of the last 20 teams to hit the highway off

    a loss of 60 or more points, only FIVE have managed to get the money. We

    also feel that new Bears head coach Art Briles is just as savvy as WSU’s rookie

    skipper, Paul Wulff – even if Baylor does bring a 1-5 SU record against the PAC

    10 into this contest. However, no amount of discussion will convince us to

    seriously consider either side in this clunker. Pass.

    BUFFALO over Temple by 10

    Temple lost a heartbreaker in OT to UConn last week but in truth the Owls had

    been scattered to the four winds throughout most of the game. The Huskies

    rushed for 203 yards and only missed fi eld goals and Connecticut turnovers

    kept the Philly boys in the game. Yes, Temple does owe Buffalo some major

    pain after the Bulls routed the favored Owls at home 42-7 last year but like

    our BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2 explains, overtime losers don’t

    cut the ATS mustard on the highway. Buffalo is loaded with returning starters

    on both sides of the ball and coach Turner Gill is getting a lot out of some notso-

    highly recruited players. Buffy is also 5-2-2 ATS in MAC openers, including a

    perfect 4-0 against teams off a loss. Looks bullish from where we’re sitting.

    TENNESSEE over Uab by 24

    UAB backers got incinerated last week when FAU broke a 73-yard scoring run

    for the cover with just 40 seconds remaining (couldn’t they have put down

    ‘the knee’ and walked off the fi eld?). We still think the Blazers are quite the

    scrappy bunch and these numbers don’t disagree: 6-0 as dogs of 4 > points in

    the second of back-to-back away games, 4-1 ATS away against the SEC and

    9-3 ATS as dogs of 20 > points. The Vols own some strong stats, too, going 5-0

    ATS lately as double-digit non-conference chalk and 6-1 ATS when playing the

    fi rst of two at Rocky Top. However, Tennessee is still waiting to crack the win

    column in ’08 and can’t possibly ignore its HUGE triple revenge showdown with

    Florida the following week. Big points + disinterested favorite = No Thanks.

    East Carolina over TULANE by 10

    Looks like ECU could be the feel-good story of the season. Off consecutive

    program-building upset wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia (those two

    teams combined to go 22-5 in 2007), Skip Holtz and his Pirates look to open

    3-0 when they head to N’awlins to dispose of mediocre Tulane. Hmmm…

    before we start a rush to the East Carolina window, we should inform you

    that the Bucs from Greenville are a less-than-stellar 3-12 SU in their last 15

    road openers (0-6 last 6!). You should also know that the Green Wave rolled

    over the Tide yardage-wide in last week’s loss to Bama, outgaining Nick

    Saban’s Tiger-slayers by a 318-172 margin. The Pirates were so giddy after

    last Saturday’s decimation of the Mounties that more than one player was

    quoted as saying, “It feels like we won a championship today.” They may eat

    those words: our PLAYBOOK database exposes Game Three road favorites off

    a SU win and ATS cover as 5-24 ATS frauds when taking on conference foes.

    Greenies make ‘em sweat…

    UCONN over Virginia by 13

    As we previously noted, Connecticut ran roughshod over Temple last week

    but continually shot themselves in the foot to turn a runaway into a nailbiter.

    Overtime winners playing at home in their next game are a 55% grind (74-59-

    2 ATS) but these Huskies are a perfect 5-0 against the number when playing

    the fi rst of two in a row at Storrs. UConn would also love a little payback

    here since the Cavs slipped past them 17-16 at Charlottesville in ’07. Virginia

    was ground into absolute pulp by the Trojans to start the season (52-7 home

    loss), then fought their way to a frustrating, mistake-fi lled 16-0 win over 1-AA

    Richmond last week. UConn can legitimately blame many of their miscues on

    playing the Temple game in a torrential downpour courtesy of Tropical Storm

    Hannah. Still, the number looks pretty solid at this point in the week.

    Oklahoma over WASHINGTON by 21

    We got a good look at Oklahoma’s depth last Saturday as they turned a 28-

    20 lead over Cincinnati into a 52-26 runaway when the Bearcats just ran out

    of gas in the late going. In direct contrast, the downtrodden Huskies must

    try to get back up off the mat following their incredibly cruel 1-point loss to

    BYU, victimized by an outrageous unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that led

    to a blocked extra point as time expired. Washington has a few numbers in

    their corner here: the Seattle dogs are 16-6 ATS as home pups versus a foe

    off a SU win while the Sooners are only 2-6 ATS when laying points to a PAC

    10 opponent. This year’s Oklahoma team looks to be something special and

    now is not the time to step in front of a hungry program seeking redemption

    for four bowl losses in fi ve years. If you must play this, hitch a ride with the

    Sooner Schooner.

    USC over Ohio St by 11

    Simply put, the Buckeyes suffered the Mother Of All Look-Aheads last week

    in their near-disastrous meltdown against Ohio U, rallying late for a 26-

    14 win (OSU was 34-point chalk). USC garnered a lot of praise for its ‘men

    against boys’ destruction of Virginia and subsequently jumped to the top

    spot in all the national polls. The Trojans have certainly owned this series,

    winning fi ve straight games while outscoring the Bucks by an incredible 91-

    6 margin. However, the current editions of both these fi ne programs are

    loaded with top quality athletes and playmakers. Ohio State’s Jim Tressel

    may have pulled a ‘Marv Levy’ in the last two BCS title games but he’s won

    FIVE National Championships, owns a 14-4 SU record against unbeaten foes

    (only ONE loss by more than 7 points) and stands 3-1 SU and ATS as a dog of

    7 > points. USC’s Pete Carroll is also awash in pointspread success: 7-0 ATS as

    HF’s off a SU win of 28 > points, 5-0 ATS as chalk versus the Big 10 and 9-2

    ATS with rest. It’s tough to lay signifi cant points to this caliber of underdog

    but the best of our SMART BOX is at work here and we must respect it. You

    make the call.

    Arizona over NEW MEXICO by 3

    Alright, pipe down… enough of the “not New Mexico again” complaints.

    The fact is the Lobos have nothing but themselves to blame for their 0-2 start

    – they outgained Texas A&M 370-236 in a 28-22 home loss last week but a 7-2

    turnover bug has seemingly buried them early. Arizona is playing with a bit

    more purpose in ’08 but this is essentially the same team that lost outright to

    New Mexico 29-27 as a 9.5-point home favorite last year. Wildcats’ head coach

    Stoops doesn’t own many shiny pointspread credentials. He’s just 3-6 SU and

    2-7 ATS when favored by fewer than 14 points, including 0-7 ATS when NOT

    off an ATS loss. Our database chips in with this fi nal gem: bowlers who start

    the season 0-2 SU and ATS at home in Game Three are a brain-melting 26-3

    SU! With Zona laying doubles in its fi rst trip out of Tucson, we’ll hunker down

    with these Lobos one more time.

    BOISE ST over Bowling Green by 20

    It’s one step up and two steps back for the BeeGees. They followed an

    improbable 27-17 upset of Pittsburgh on opening weekend with a shocking

    42-17 no-show at home against Big 10 bottom-feeder Minnesota (5 turnovers

    killed the Falcons). BGSU could be in over its head on the blue carpet today…

    the Falcs lost here 48-20 in 2005 and have covered just fi ve of their last 20

    SU losses when taking points. The Broncos jealously guard their home turf,

    winning 33 of the last 34 games SU while covering lined home games to the

    tune of 37-14 ATS. That’s strong medicine as they say in these parts and with

    the best of the SMART BOX in agreement, looks like we’ll be wearing blue

    and orange today.

    Utah over UTAH ST by 25

    QB Brian Johnson has led the Utes to an impressive 2-0 start and is probably

    counting the minutes until he can take the fi eld here with a chance to

    embarrass a hated foe in its home opener. The last two meetings on this

    fi eld resulted in 48 and 42-point blowouts by Utah, so it’s no surprise the

    Aggies have dropped four straight ATS at home in the series. Utah State

    is also a feeble 1-5 ATS lately as home dogs of 18 > points – a perfect

    bookend for Utah’s sparkling 19-4 ATS mark in its last 23 SU wins as road

    chalk. There’ll be a blowout or two on the board today; this could be one

    of them.

    SAN JOSE ST over San Diego St by 7

    Gutsy performances by both these teams on the road last Saturday. The

    Aztecs fi nished their loss to Notre Dame with no less than fi ve defensive

    linemen out of the game but still outstatted the Irish in a game they could

    have won. Meanwhile, Dick Tomey’s Spartans threw a scare into Nebraska

    before fi nally being subdued 35-12. San Jose State owns a 4-1 ATS edge in

    the series and with both teams in need of a win, the feeling here is that San

    Diego State could bring last week’s loss to the fi eld today. Slight edge to the

    Spartans.

    ARIZONA ST over Unlv by 27

    It could be time for the U.S. Treasury to investigate ASU head coach Dennis

    Erickson because the man continues to manufacture money at home, courtesy

    of a 49-28-3 ATS record. That badge of honor contains another jewel in its

    setting, a 33-13 ATS record off a double-digit win. The Sun Devils are also 5-1

    ATS in the third of three straight home games and have cashed in fi ve of six

    Game Three situations. UNLV may have fought Utah tough for three quarters

    but they walk into this matchup barefooted: 0-7 ATS in the second of back-toback

    away games, 1-8 ATS after tangling with the Utes and 1-6 ATS in Game

    Three. We could continue but you know which way we’re going. Welcome to

    Erickson Printing… start the presses!

    4 BEST BET

    Both teams saw doube-digit leads evaporate into losses but we don’t

    know how the Blundering Herd can overcome the trauma of giving

    up 51 unanswered points in their loss to Wisconsin. Memphis may be

    0-2 SU and ATS but the Tigers have won both stat battles to start the

    season. Memphis fi ts this nifty number concerning bowl teams playing

    with next-season revenge: Game Three Bowl dogs of less than 20 points

    off consecutive pointspread losses and a SU loss have cashed in 13 of

    their last 16 tries. Tiger coach West badly needs a win to lower the

    heat under his own seat and just so happens to own a 10-2 ATS record

    off a SU favorite loss when tackling a > .333 opponent. Marshall has

    stumbled to a pathetic 2-7-1 ATS record in its last 10 conference openers

    and won’t be able to stop a Memphis team still steaming over their lastsecond

    loss to Rice. Tigers restore the roar in Huntington.

    ADDED GAMES

    MICHIGAN ST over Fla Atlantic by 17

    Both teams got back on the winning track last week when Michigan State

    emulsifi ed Eastern Michigan, 42-10, while Howie Longname’s Owls scored

    with a 15-point win over UAB. Tricky trends at work here with the Spartans

    1-8 ATS as home chalk of 24 or less when playing off a win and FAU just 1-10

    ATS as a dog of more than 21 points. A Notre Dame (1-7 ATS before the Irish)

    look-ahead puts any thoughts of MSU on hold.

    ALABAMA over W Kentucky by 28

    Hilltoppers 3rd straight road game fi nds them winless in their last four games

    against SEC competition by an average losing margin of 37.5 PPG. Somehow

    the Tide was held to a mere 172 yards offense in last week’s lethargic win over

    Tulane. Granted, a letdown was in order following their romp over Clemson

    but 172 yards of offense? No interest here.

    ARKANSAS ST over Southern Miss by 7

    There appears to be a new predator in the Sun Belt and it’s a Red Wolf.

    Hungry like the wolf, Arkansas State laid 83 points and 670 yards on Texas

    Southern last week. They are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games in Jonesboro and

    they outstatted the Golden Eagles in a 16-10 season-ending loss last year. Yes,

    they can play. Sure, Smissy is 13-1 ATS in Game Threes but need we remind

    you that was under former head coach Jeff Bower. To conclude, our database

    tells us that home teams are 17-2 SU after scoring 74 more points in their last

    game. Beware of the Canis lupus rufus!

    KENTUCKY over Mid Tennessee St by 16

    A lot has changed since the Blue Raiders last invaded Lexington in 2002.

    MTSU dropped a 44-22 decision as 6-point dogs. That was Andy McCollum

    against Guy Morriss, back when both teams were struggling for identity.

    Today it’s Rick Stockstill against Rich Brooks as both programs have turned

    the corner. The Wildcats railroaded Norfolk, 38-3, while the Blue Raiders

    stunned Maryland, 24-14, as 13-point underdogs last week. Brooks’ toughest

    task these days will be to keep his team focused between now and its next big

    game against Alabama the fi rst week in October.

    ILLINOIS over La Lafayette by 28

    It’s that ho-hum portion of the schedule for the nation’s elite teams, meaning

    it’s all on the coaches to keep their teams fully focused in these pay-forslaughter

    games. The SMART BOX reminds us that we want no part of the

    Ragin’ Cajuns. So does their 1-9 ATS mark with rest and a 1-7 ATS log in games

    off a loss of 21 or more points. If Penn State weren’t up next for the Illini we’d

    be fi ring up the Poulan this weekend.

    LSU over North Texas by 48

    Thanks to Gustav, the Bengals become a prime SMART BOX play this week

    and Les Miles is absolutely loving it. Like Urban Meyer, Miles chews up nonconference

    foes with a passion, going 19-6-1 ATS in his college football head

    coaching career, including 16-3-1 when laying points. That fi ts like a silk slipper

    when North Texas is involved as the Lean Machine is 0-8 ATS in Game Threes,

    0-5 ATS against the SEC and 1-7 ATS in the fi rst of BB road games. Timber!

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 10 2008 11:08pm
16. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    Long Sheet

    Week 3

    Some matchups will update as game days approach. We'll post as soon as they are available.

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    Thursday, September 11

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    N CAROLINA (1 - 0) at RUTGERS (0 - 1) - 9/11/2008, 7:45 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    RUTGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons

    RUTGERS is 1-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Friday, September 12

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KANSAS (2 - 0) at S FLORIDA (2 - 0) - 9/12/2008, 8:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    KANSAS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    KANSAS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    KANSAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    KANSAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    KANSAS is 1-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons

    KANSAS is 1-0 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, September 13

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NAVY (1 - 1) at DUKE (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    NAVY is 98-68 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all games since 1992.

    NAVY is 98-68 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

    NAVY is 64-39 ATS (+21.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

    NAVY is 49-21 ATS (+25.9 Units) in road games since 1992.

    NAVY is 49-21 ATS (+25.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.

    NAVY is 92-62 ATS (+23.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    NAVY is 49-20 ATS (+27.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    NAVY is 52-22 ATS (+27.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

    DUKE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    DUKE is 1-1 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons

    NAVY is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    RICE (2 - 0) at VANDERBILT (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    RICE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

    RICE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    AUBURN (2 - 0) at MISSISSIPPI ST (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 against the spread versus AUBURN over the last 3 seasons

    MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BALL ST (2 - 0) at AKRON (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 1:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TOLEDO (0 - 1) at E MICHIGAN (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    TOLEDO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

    TOLEDO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

    TOLEDO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    TOLEDO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    TOLEDO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    E MICHIGAN is 1-1 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons

    E MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEVADA (1 - 1) at MISSOURI (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 12:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    MISSOURI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    MISSOURI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    MISSOURI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

    MISSOURI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SMU (1 - 1) at TEXAS TECH (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    TEXAS TECH is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home games since 1992.

    TEXAS TECH is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

    TEXAS TECH is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    TEXAS TECH is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    TEXAS TECH is 72-46 ATS (+21.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    TEXAS TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus SMU over the last 3 seasons

    TEXAS TECH is 2-0 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW MEXICO ST (0 - 0) at NEBRASKA (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    NEBRASKA is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    NEBRASKA is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

    NEBRASKA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UCLA (1 - 0) at BYU (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    BYU is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    UCLA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

    UCLA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    UCLA is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

    UCLA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    UCLA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    UCLA is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    UCLA is 2-0 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons

    BYU is 1-1 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OREGON (2 - 0) at PURDUE (1 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    OREGON is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ARKANSAS (2 - 0) at TEXAS (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 3:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    GEORGIA (2 - 0) at S CAROLINA (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 3:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    S CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons

    S CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    AIR FORCE (2 - 0) at HOUSTON (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    AIR FORCE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HAWAII (1 - 1) at OREGON ST (0 - 2) - 9/13/2008, 4:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    OREGON ST is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games since 1992.

    OREGON ST is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

    OREGON ST is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    OREGON ST is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    OREGON ST is 1-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons

    OREGON ST is 1-0 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WISCONSIN (2 - 0) at FRESNO ST (1 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 10:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PENN ST (2 - 0) at SYRACUSE (0 - 2) - 9/13/2008, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    SYRACUSE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    SYRACUSE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    SYRACUSE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MICHIGAN (1 - 1) at NOTRE DAME (1 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 3:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons

    MICHIGAN is 2-0 straight up against NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    IOWA ST (2 - 0) at IOWA (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    IOWA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.

    IOWA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    IOWA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons

    IOWA is 1-1 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    GEORGIA TECH (2 - 0) at VIRGINIA TECH (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    VIRGINIA TECH is 32-10 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

    VIRGINIA TECH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    VIRGINIA TECH is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    VIRGINIA TECH is 85-60 ATS (+19.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    VIRGINIA TECH is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons

    VIRGINIA TECH is 1-1 straight up against GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NC STATE (1 - 1) at CLEMSON (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 12:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    CLEMSON is 1-1 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons

    CLEMSON is 2-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    W MICHIGAN (1 - 1) at IDAHO (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 5:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    W MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    W MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    W MICHIGAN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

    W MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

    W MICHIGAN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    C MICHIGAN (1 - 1) at OHIO U (0 - 2) - 9/13/2008, 2:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    C MICHIGAN is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    C MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons

    C MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CALIFORNIA (2 - 0) at MARYLAND (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    CALIFORNIA is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    CALIFORNIA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WASHINGTON ST (0 - 2) at BAYLOR (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 12:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    BAYLOR is 71-97 ATS (-35.7 Units) in all games since 1992.

    BAYLOR is 71-97 ATS (-35.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

    BAYLOR is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    BAYLOR is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons

    WASHINGTON ST is 1-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    STANFORD (1 - 1) at TCU (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    STANFORD is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

    TCU is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    TCU is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    STANFORD is 1-0 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons

    TCU is 1-0 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TEMPLE (1 - 1) at BUFFALO (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    TEMPLE is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons

    BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UAB (0 - 2) at TENNESSEE (0 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 12:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    E CAROLINA (2 - 0) at TULANE (0 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 3:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    E CAROLINA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

    E CAROLINA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    E CAROLINA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    TULANE is 51-75 ATS (-31.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    E CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons

    E CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MEMPHIS (0 - 2) at MARSHALL (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 7:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    MARSHALL is 1-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons

    MARSHALL is 1-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    VIRGINIA (1 - 1) at CONNECTICUT (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 7:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    CONNECTICUT is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    CONNECTICUT is 1-0 against the spread versus VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons

    VIRGINIA is 1-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OKLAHOMA (2 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 2) - 9/13/2008, 7:45 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    OKLAHOMA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    WASHINGTON is 0-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons

    OKLAHOMA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OHIO ST (2 - 0) at USC (1 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 8:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    USC is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

    OHIO ST is 102-73 ATS (+21.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    OHIO ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ARIZONA (2 - 0) at NEW MEXICO (0 - 2) - 9/13/2008, 8:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    ARIZONA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

    ARIZONA is 26-51 ATS (-30.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    ARIZONA is 51-75 ATS (-31.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    NEW MEXICO is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

    NEW MEXICO is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BOWLING GREEN (1 - 1) at BOISE ST (1 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 8:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    BOISE ST is 71-43 ATS (+23.7 Units) in all games since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 71-43 ATS (+23.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 40-16 ATS (+22.4 Units) in home games since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 40-16 ATS (+22.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after a bye week since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UTAH (2 - 0) at UTAH ST (0 - 2) - 9/13/2008, 8:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    UTAH ST is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons

    UTAH is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN DIEGO ST (0 - 2) at SAN JOSE ST (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 8:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    SAN JOSE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    SAN JOSE ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    SAN JOSE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons

    SAN JOSE ST is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UNLV (1 - 1) at ARIZONA ST (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 10:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    UNLV is 41-65 ATS (-30.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    ARIZONA ST is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 1) at MICHIGAN ST (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    FLA ATLANTIC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    W KENTUCKY (1 - 1) at ALABAMA (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

    ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    ALABAMA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    ALABAMA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    ALABAMA is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SOUTHERN MISS (1 - 1) at ARKANSAS ST (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 7:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons

    SOUTHERN MISS is 1-0 straight up against ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIDDLE TENN ST (1 - 1) at KENTUCKY (2 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    MIDDLE TENN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA LAFAYETTE (0 - 1) at ILLINOIS (1 - 1) - 9/13/2008, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    ILLINOIS is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) in home games since 1992.

    ILLINOIS is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

    ILLINOIS is 47-75 ATS (-35.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NORTH TEXAS (0 - 2) at LSU (1 - 0) - 9/13/2008, 8:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    NORTH TEXAS is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

    LSU is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 11 2008 3:58am
17. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    Short Sheet

    Week 3

    Thursday, September 11th

    North Carolina at Rutgers, 7:45 ET ESPN

    North Carolina: 1-5 ATS 1st month of season

    Rutgers: 8-2 ATS in non-conference games

    Friday, September 5th

    Kansas at South Florida, 8:00 ET ESPN2

    Kansas: 13-3 ATS off ATS win

    South Florida: 11-3 Under in September

    Saturday, September 13th

    Navy at Duke, 12:00 ET ESPNU

    Navy: 37-14 ATS as road underdog

    Duke: 7-18 ATS as favorite

    (TC) Rice at Vanderbilt, 7:00 ET

    Rice: 20-8 ATS off SU win as dog

    Vanderbilt: 9-22 ATS off BB ATS wins

    (TC) Auburn at Mississippi State, 7:00 ET ESPN2

    Auburn: 0-6 ATS off SU win/ATS loss

    Mississippi State: 2-9 ATS in home games

    Ball State at Akron, 1:00 ET

    Ball State: 10-3 ATS in road games

    Akron: 1-5 ATS off BB Overs

    (TC) Toledo at Eastern Michigan, 12:00 ET

    Toledo: 1-8 ATS as an underdog

    Eastern Michigan: 13-7 Under off road game

    (TC) Nevada at Missouri, 12:30 ET

    Nevada: 14-5 Over as road underdog

    Missouri: 8-1 ATS vs. non-conference

    (TC) SMU at Texas Tech, 7:00 ET

    SMU: 7-20 ATS Away 1st month of season

    Texas Tech: 53-28 ATS at home

    (TC) New Mexico State at Nebraska, 7:00 ET

    New Mexico State: 4-1 Under as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points

    Nebraska: 0-6 ATS off SU win

    UCLA at BYU, 3:30 ET VER

    UCLA: 11-1 ATS as an underdog

    BYU: 5-1 Under vs. Pac 10

    Oregon at Purdue, 3:30 ET ABC

    Oregon: 6-0 ATS 1st month of season

    Purdue: 36-18 Under in home games

    Arkansas at Texas, 3:30 ET ABC

    Arkansas: 5-1 Under vs. Big 12

    Texas: 1-6 ATS off DD cover as favorite

    Georgia at South Carolina, 3:30 ET CBS

    Georgia: 25-7 Under off home win by 17+ points

    South Carolina: 6-1 Under off SU loss as favorite

    Air Force at Houston, 3:30 ET CBSC

    Air Force: 6-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less

    Houston: 4-12 ATS after allowing 50+ points

    (TC) Hawaii at Oregon State, 4:00 ET FSN

    Hawaii: 36-19 Over playing with 6 or less days rest

    Oregon State: 1-6 ATS in September

    (TC) Wisconsin at Fresno State, 10:30 ET ESPN2

    Wisconsin: 4-2 ATS as road favorite

    Fresno State: 0-8 ATS off non-conference game

    Penn State at Syracuse, 3:30 ET ABC

    Penn State: 8-2 ATS in non-conference games

    Syracuse: 0-6 ATS as home underdog

    Michigan at Notre Dame, 3:30 ET NBC

    Michigan: 8-2 Under in September

    Notre Dame: 2-8 ATS in September

    (TC) Iowa State at Iowa, 12:00 ET Big10

    Iowa State: 7-1 Under off an Over

    Iowa: 0-6 ATS off BB SU wins

    Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech, 3:30 ET ABC

    Georgia Tech: 1-8 ATS off ATS win

    Virginia Tech: 13-4 ATS vs. conference

    (TC) NC State at Clemson, 12:00 ET

    NC State: 1-6 ATS 1st month of season

    Clemson: 21-4 Under after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play

    Western Michigan at Idaho, 5:00 ET

    Western Michigan: 0-7 ATS as a favorite

    Idaho: 1-5 ATS as home underdog

    (TC) Central Michigan at Ohio, 2:00 ET

    Central Michigan: 13-1 ATS off road game

    Ohio: 4-0 Over as home underdog

    (TC) California at Maryland, 12:00 ET

    California: 6-1 ATS off win by 17+ points

    Maryland: 0-7 ATS 1st month of season

    (TC) Washington State at Baylor, 12:30 ET FSN

    Washington State: 5-1 Under vs. Big 12

    Baylor: 5-14 ATS as an underdog

    Stanford at TCU, 7:00 ET MTN

    Stanford: 1-9 ATS in September

    TCU: 17-5 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards

    (TC) Temple at Buffalo, 12:00 ET

    Temple: 18-35 ATS in September

    Buffalo: 9-2 ATS off an Under

    (TC) UAB at Tennessee, 12:30 ET

    UAB: 9-2 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5+ points

    Tennessee: 5-1 Under vs. Conference USA

    (TC) East Carolina at Tulane, 3:00 ET

    East Carolina: 12-2 ATS off Under

    Tulane: 16-31 ATS as home underdog

    Memphis at Marshall, 7:00 ET

    Memphis: 16-6 ATS off a conference loss by 7 points or less

    Marshall: 2-14 ATS off BB non-conference games

    (TC) Virginia at UConn, 7:30 ET ESPNU

    Virginia: 13-4 Under off BB home games

    UConn: 0-6 ATS after allowing 9 points or less

    Oklahoma at Washington, 7:45 ET ESPN

    Oklahoma: 6-1 Under as road favorite

    Washington: 3-0 ATS as a home underdog of 14.5+ points

    Ohio State at USC, 8:00 ET ABC

    Ohio State: 8-2 ATS in road games

    USC: 11-1 Under in home games

    Arizona at New Mexico, 8:00 ET CBSC

    Arizona: 26-51 ATS as favorite

    New Mexico: 25-11 ATS off home loss

    Bowling Green at Boise State, 10:00 ET

    Bowling Green: 1-5 ATS off home loss by 14+ points

    Boise State: 19-5 ATS at home off win by 17+ points

    Utah at Utah State, 10:00 ET

    Utah: 5-1 ATS after scoring 42+ points

    Utah State: 1-14 ATS off a road loss by 28+ points

    (TC) San Diego State at San Jose State, 8:00 ET

    San Diego State: 32-15 Under in road games

    San Jose State: 9-1 ATS at home

    UNLV at Arizona State, 10:00 ET FSN

    UNLV: 16-31 ATS off ATS win

    Arizona State: 19-7 ATS at home off BB ATS wins

    Added Games

    Florida Atlantic at Michigan State, 12:00 ET

    Florida Atlantic: 1-8 ATS Away vs. non-conference

    Michigan State: 4-1 ATS off win by 17+ points

    (TC) Western Kentucky at Alabama, 7:00 ET

    Western Kentucky: n/a

    Alabama: 2-10 ATS as home favorite

    (TC) Southern Miss at Arkansas State, 7:00 ET

    Southern Miss: 5-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

    Arkansas State: 8-20 ATS off home win

    (TC) Middle Tennessee State at Kentucky, 7:00 ET

    Middle Tennessee State: 7-1 ATS off SU win as a dog

    Kentucky: 5-1 Over after allowing 17 points or less BB games

    (TC) LA Lafayette at Illinois, 12:00 ET Big 10

    LA Lafayette: 2-8 ATS off bye week

    Illinois: 8-2 Under after scoring 42+ Points

    North Texas at LSU, 8:00 ET

    North Texas: 22-39 ATS vs. non-conference

    LSU: 9-1 ATS vs. non-conference

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 11 2008 3:58am
18. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tips and Trends

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, September 13

    Michigan at Notre Dame

    Michigan (-1, O/U 35.5): After falling to Utah in its opener, Michigan rebounded with an ugly win over Miami, OH at home. After the win head coach Rich Rodriguez admitted the program still has a ways to go and said he will continue to rotate quarterbacks Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan. Rodriguez was hoping that one of the young quarterbacks would have established themselves by the Notre Dame game, but that hasn’t been the case. The Wolverines are still looking for playmakers on offense, while seven of the top eight offensive linemen from last year are either gone or injured, further hurting the offense’s production.

    Favorite is 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

    The UNDER is 13-3 in Michigan's last 16 September games.

    Key Injuries - LT Mark Ortmann (shoulder) is out.

    RB Michael Shaw (groin) is probable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 17

    Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish were expected to be much better this season but it didn’t show last week when Notre Dame barely escaped at home against San Diego State, one of the worst teams in Division I. The Irish scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to pull out to win, thanks to quarterback Jimmy Clausen throwing for 237 yards and three scores. Clausen did throw two picks but looked more comfortable leading the Irish offense than he did a season ago. Notre Dame’s rush defense played well against the Aztecs, allowing just 71 yards on the ground.

    Notre Dame is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games.

    The UNDER is 10-2 in Notre Dame’s last 12 non-conference games.

    Key Injuries - FS Jashaad Gaines (personal reasons) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (Side Play of the Day)

    #5 Ohio State at #1 USC

    Ohio State: With the big matchup versus USC looming, the Buckeyes almost forgot they had to play a game against Ohio first. Ohio State trailed the Bobcats 14-12 before pulling away in the fourth quarter. Head coach Jim Tressel even admitted after the game that he thought his team was looking ahead to the Trojans. Tressel better hope that’s the case because if the Buckeyes don’t play much better on Saturday, they’ll get blown out. The offense sputtered without star running back Beanie Wells, who is expected to play this week. Todd Boeckman threw for only 110 yards against the Bobcats, often missing open receivers badly. If Boeckman struggles early against the Trojans, expect to see freshman sensation Terrelle Pryor get more snaps under center.

    Ohio State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 road games.

    Ohio State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. Pac-10.

    Key Injuries - RB Chris Wells (foot) is probable.

    CB Donald Washington (suspension) is probable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 14 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

    USC (-10.5, O/U 43): After hammering Virginia 52-7 in the opener, USC has had two weeks to sit back and wait for the Buckeyes to visit. While this is a huge game for both teams, Pete Carroll said the coaching staff will spend a few days of the week working hard with the younger players before getting into game-planning for Ohio State. USC’s defense manhandled Virginia and they must be licking their chops after watching the Buckeyes struggle offensively against Ohio. Mark Sanchez looks like he is going to be the next great USC quarterback after throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns against Virginia. In a battle between two of college football’s best defenses, Sanchez could be the deciding factor.

    USC is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a bye week.

    The UNDER is 6-1 in USC's last 7 home games.

    Key Injuries - WR Vidal Hazelton (ankle) is probable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 24

    #10 Wisconsin at #21 Fresno State

    Wisconsin (-1.5, O/U 51): After two tune-ups against Akron and Marshall, the Badgers travel to a place no BCS school likes to go: Fresno State. Last week Wisconsin fell behind Marshall 14-0 but then scored 51 unanswered points to win 51-14. New quarterback Allan Evridge showed he could throw the ball when called upon to do so, tossing for 308 yards and a touchdown. Evridge will need a repeat performance against a tough Bulldogs defense that will crowd the box to stop the run. The Wisconsin pass defense still needs some work after allowing 239 yards through the air to Marshall.

    Wisconsin is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 non-conference games.

    Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.

    Key Injuries - CB Mario Goins (foot) is questionable.

    TE Travis Beckum (hamstring) is probable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 27

    Fresno State: The Bulldogs have already toppled one BCS conference team when they traveled cross-country to Rutgers and easily disposed of the Scarlet Knights. This time Fresno State will have the luxury of playing in front of sold-out and raucous Bulldog Stadium. It will be a giant opportunity for the Bulldogs, who often must go on the road to play against quality opponents. Fresno can’t afford to get off to a slow start this week like they did against Rutgers when they went scoreless in the first half. Quarterback Tom Brandstater will look to exploit the Badgers secondary but Fresno State’s receivers need to hang onto the football. They had four drops against Rutgers.

    Fresno State is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.

    The OVER is 4-1 in Fresno State's last 5 non-conference games.

    Key Injuries - LB Nick Bates (arm) is OUT.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 24

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 11 2008 4:00am
19. 0 likes

    Thursday, September 11

    North Carolina at Rutgers

    North Carolina: The Tar Heels won their opener over Division I-AA McNeese State 35-27 in a game that was much tougher than anticipated. The running game struggled with the tailbacks contributing only 69 yards to the 163-yard total. Wide receiver Brandon Tate provided some big plays on reverses or the Tar Heels would have netted only 57 yards on the ground. North Carolina was no better at stopping the run. The Heels defense allowed McNeese State to rush for 152 yards. Even though Rutgers no longer has Ray Rice, they will look to exploit Carolina’s soft run defense with Kordell Young. Overall, the Heels gave up 391 to McNeese State, so defense is a huge concern for Butch Davis coming into this game. The Tar Heels will be looking for their first victory outside of the state of North Carolina since 2002.

    North Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games in September.

    North Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its 5 vs. Big East.

    Key Injuries - FB Bobby Rome (ankle) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

    Rutgers (-5, O/U 45): The Scarlet Knights will be looking to rebound after a disappointing home loss to Fresno State to open the season. Rutgers will be looking to re-establish its dominance at home. The Scarlet Knights went 7-0 at home in 2006 but are just 5-4 since. If that’s going to happen, Rutgers needs to find some offense. They recorded just 106 rushing yards against Fresno State and were held scoreless in the first half. The Scarlet Knights have a talented trio of receivers but there were way too many drops in the opener. This game features an interesting battle of coaches. Greg Schiano was Butch Davis' defensive coordinator at the University of Miami, and this is the first time the two will face off as head coaches.

    Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 Thursday games.

    Rutgers is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.

    Key Injuries - DE Gary Watts (knee) is questionable.

    LT Anthony Davis (back) is questionable.

    PROJECTED SCORE: 28

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 11 2008 4:02am
20. 0 likes

    UPDATE #3: SATURDAY

    CFB :

    SPYLOCK ( 6-0 ):

    5* OHIO

    3* SOUTHERN MISS

    NESS INSIDER ( 3-0 ):

    INSIDER- IOWA

    ROOT NO LIMIT ( 2-0 ):

    NO LIMIT- B Y U

    ACE ACE ( 10-2 ):

    $1000- NAVY

    $ 500- AKRON

    $ 500- TCU

    COLIN COWHERD ( 9-2 ):

    FRESNO STATE

    OREGON

    U S C

    GEORGIA

    PENN STATE

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 13 2008 1:01pm
21. 0 likes

    Added:

    NORTHCOAST 5*- AUBURN

    BALFE ( 8-2 CFB ):

    RICE

    NEBRASKA

    B Y U

    HAWAII

    TULANE

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 13 2008 1:01pm