15 replies

1. 0 likes

   Power Sweep:

   4* Florida 44-13

   3*East Carolina +

   3* LSU 41-10

   2* Temple + 21-20

   2*Oregon 45-3

   2* Pittsburg 30-13

   Underdog ULM +14 21-17

   4* Carolina + 20-21

   3* Jax Under

   2* Houston + 24-26

   2* NYG 27-13

   3* Jax Under 37

   3* Cowboya Under 49

   3* Bengals Under 39

   2* Carolina Over 41

   2* Texans Over 44

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 2 2008 8:37pm
2. 0 likes

   GS Key Releases

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Pro's

   Buffalo by 10 over Seattle

   Tampa Bay by 7 over New Orleans

   Under the Total in the Detroit-Atlanta game

   College

   Northwestern by 16 over Duke

   Florida by 31 over Miami-Florida

   Air Force by 7 over Wyoming

   Mississippi by 3 over Wake Forest

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 2 2008 8:38pm
3. 0 likes

   Pointwise for week of Sept. 4-8

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   College selections

   1--KANSAS over Louisiana Tech 52-10

   1--ALABAMA over Tulane 48-3

   2--Northwestern over DUKE 33-10

   2--WAKE FOREST over Ole Miss 34-17

   3--OKLAHOMA STATE over Houston 44-20

   4--GEORGIA over Central Michigan 56-19

   5--ARIZONA over Toledo 48-10

   5--TEMPLE (+) over UConn 24-22

   NFL Selections

   3--PHILADELPHIA over St. Louis 27-16

   4--ny jets over MIAMI 27-16

   4--INDIANAPOLIS over Chicago 27-13

   5--ATLANTA (+) over Detroit 27-26

   5--Houston (+) over PITTSBURGH 26-24

   Last week Pointwise was 1-1 on their "1" (top) rated plays, 3-5 on all rated plays

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 2 2008 8:39pm
4. 0 likes

   Newsletter Record Tracking

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   *** TRACKING RECORDS FROM LAST WEEK ***

   Newsletter Results Report as of Sept. 1

   (Top 2 Star Ratings Plays and Special Plays)

   Northcoast Power Sweep

   Power Sweep 5* (0-0, 0%)

   Power Sweep 4* (0-1, 0%)

   Dog of the Week (0-1, 0%)

   Early Bird Play (1-0, 100%)

   Winning Points

   Best Bet (1-1, 50%)

   Preferred (3-0, 100%)

   Northcoast Power Plays

   Power Plays 5* (0-0, 0%)

   Power Plays 4* (8-4, 66.7%)

   Pointwise

   Pointwise 1 (1-1, 50%)

   Pointwise 2 (0-1, 0%)

   Confidential Kick Off

   CKO 11 (1-0, 100%)

   CKO 10 (2-2, 50%)

   The Goldsheet

   Key Releases (3-1, 75%)

   Red Sheet

   Red Sheet 89 (0-2, 0%)

   Red Sheet 88 (3-1, 75%)

   Sports Reporter

   Best Bet (2-2, 50%)

   Recommended (2-2, 50%)

   Kevin O’Neill

   Erik Scheponik (0-1, 0%)

   Jets (-3 –115) over @Dolphins

   Louisiana Monroe (+12) @Arkansas

   Dave Fobare (1-0, 100%)

   New England (-16½) over Kansas City

   Middle Tennessee (+13½) over Maryland

   Kevin O’Neill (1-2, 33.3%)

   Texans (+6½) over @Steelers

   Lions @Falcons under 41

   Temple (+7) over Connecticut

   Mississippi (+8) over @Wake Forest

   Georgia (-23½) over Central Michigan

   Matty Baiungo (1-1, 50%)

   Eagles (- 7½) over Rams

   Panthers (+9) over @Chargers

   Auburn (-18) over Southern Miss

   HQ Report

   HQ Report 5 (1-0, 100%)

   HQ Report 4 (0-0, 0%)

   HQ Underdog Play (1-0, 100%)

   HQ Total Recall (0-1, 0%)

   HQ ATS (0-1, 0%)

   Marc Lawrence Playbook

   Best Bet 5 (0-1, 0%)

   Best Bet 4 (0-1, 0%)

   Upset Game of the Week (0-1, 0%)

   Sports Insights Marketwatch

   NCAA Games to Watch (3-0, 100%)

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 2 2008 8:41pm
5. 0 likes

   wayne allen root's pick record

   2007 Cfb Record

   War Billionaire 76.9%

   War Insider 75.0%

   War $ Maker 71.4%

   War Perfect Play 62.7%

   War Chairman 60.7%

   2006 Cfb Record

   War Chairman 76.2%

   War Perfect Play 61.5%

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 2 2008 8:45pm
6. 0 likes

   Sports Reporter

   Vol. 34, No. 2 WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2008

   COLLEGE FOOTBALL

   THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4

   SOUTH CAROLINA over *VANDERBILT by 11

   Of South Carolina’s 34 points last week, 21 came in the fourth quarter against a tired defense that realized that the offense was not about to chip in. Spurrier’s offense lacks play-makers, but should find some success between the tackles and via play-action. Vandy’s resurgent QB Nickson can create problems with his legs, but his squad won’t come close to the 5.4 ypc

   that they hit against Miami-OH. Both teams put up 34 points in week one, so if Vegas gets lazy, the UNDER could be a solid play. SOUTH CAROLINA, 24-13.

   FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

   *BALL STATE over NAVY by 3

   Ball State head coach Brady Hoke has his sights set on a MAC Championship, which the team lacks since he got there. But last time anyone looked, Navy was an Independent. Always-effective Navy senior QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada missed last Saturday's season opener against Towson, which gave senior Jarod Bryant 29 minutes of clock time to trigger 602 rushing yards in the frustrating option. Both Navy QBs played in last season’s meeting in Annapolis, which was tied 31-31 at the end of 60 minutes, with each team topping 500 offensive yards. Navy’s defense is a little older and much healthier now than it was then, and when they take it up the middle on offense, the new clock rules of ’08 will enable them to let it bleed and eventually deny some time to the Ball boys when the productive home team

   offense gets its chance to play with the piggie. BALL STATE, 34-31.

   SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

   *MICHIGAN STATE over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 18

   The starters who helped power Eastern Michigan’s 52-0 home win vs. Indiana State last week were matched against an opponent that was playing its first game under a new head coach, and using a second-string QB in place of a suspended starter. Ya’ think that of the two teams here, Michigan State might have had the better opening tester out on the Pac 10 road at Cal? But one warning about laying points with the Big Ten home favorite: EMU’s little-play offense, which had a longer week of prep time after playing home Thursday (vs. Sparty’s Saturday late-night West Coast commitment which rendered Sunday near-useless for them), can be a very pesky big underdog due to one of its few strengths – ball security. MICHIGAN STATE, 34-16.

   *SYRACUSE over AKRON by 3

   The Orange offense is still crawling, with just a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel for new offensive coordinator Mitch Browning. Besides pounding it with the tailbacks (there is only one ball), and all the short passing stuff, there isn’t much else there. Akron’s defense won’t mind this too much. Put Syracuse’s offense on a long field, and more than half the battle is won. SYRACUSE, 16-13.

   *MICHIGAN over MIAMI OH by 9

   At least the Miami-OH defense won’t have to deal with a QB like Chris Nickson of Vanderbilt, who ran around and through them last Thursday night. Michigan’s defense will continue to play ultra-inspired ball to help protect that currently very lousy transitioning offense. Redhawks coach Montgomery to Rich Rodriguez: ‘We’ve seen your offense when we played Cincinnati in ’06 and Central Michigan in ’07 and frankly, they do it better than you do right

   now.’ It’s hard to ‘’Under’’-stand how the Wolverines didn’t lose by much more than 2 points to Utah. MICHIGAN, 19-10.

   NORTHWESTERN over *DUKE by 8

   David Cutcliffe will ask his Dukies for more than they gave for anyone else in the last decade. But that isn’t Tennessee’s oversized linemen and chiseled running backs out there providing stability for him. The visitors got caught with their pants down vs. Duke last season, out-gaining them by 200 yards and still losing while racking up 13 penalties. Northwestern will show up better prepared, and, unlike last year’s outing when he was injured and out, with all important Tyrell Sutton in the backfield. NORTHWESTERN, 28-20.

   *BOSTON COLLEGE over GEORGIA TECH by 2

   “There’s just too many issues with this offense for people to deal with,” said losing head coach Crowe of Jacksonville State last week, regarding Paul Johnson’s new, option-based attack at Georgia Tech. “We had two and a half weeks to deal with it. The rest of these folks will get two days. Good luck, ACC.” Hmmm, will Johnson have immediate success with something different in a stale league, like Joe Tiller did at Purdue? Even if the BC’s decent defense stings the Jackets’ offense, don’t expect a comfortable victory with a BC offense that managed just 21 points against a MAC foe. BOSTON COLLEGE, 22-20.

   WEST VIRGINIA over *EAST CAROLINA by 4

   If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em? Well, not quite. ECU seemed to take its win against Virginia Tech in stride, so there doesn’t figure to be the emotional letdown that many handicappers fantisize about, but often does not materialize after a big upset win like the Pirates pulled vs. Virginia Tech. But the offense that they beat is pretty bland, and West Virginia’s is very varied

   and will be doing some different things for the first time, unlike Virginia Tech, which was doing the same old things for the zillionth time. Against very good Va. Tech defensive personnel, ECU’s offense gained 369 yards, 100 more than we expected. This is a much bigger game for ECU than it is for West Virginia, because the Pirates are eyeing the BCS bowl bid and West Virginia can win the Big East to get theirs. You might want to dare West Virginia to

   throw it for 245 yards again, as they did vs. Villanova. That could be a fake stat, and ECU is a proven turnover-getter. WEST VIRGINIA, 31-27.

   *BOWLING GREEN over MINNESOTA by 5 The BeeGees led last season’s opener in the Metrodome 21-0 at halftime in the trying-times debut of a new Golden Gophers coaching regime, when the UM defense had few real players

   and BG’s offense had it way too easy. But Minnesota came all the way back and took a short lead before blowing it and losing in overtime. Still, that was Tyler Sheehan’s first career start under center for Bowling Green. He hasn’t done much to be negative about against bad opposing defenses. So, until Minnesota proves it has a pass defense, we’ll avoid needing them. BOWLING GREEN, 35-30.

   *AUBURN over SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI by 17

   427 rushing yards will make Southern Miss backers forget they have a first-year coach who installed a new offensive system. RB Fletcher put it simply, “The holes were there, all I had to do was run through them”. Auburn’s defense won’t be quite as forgiving as Louisiana- Lafayette’s. It better not be because the Tiger offense is a work in progress. Through three

   quarters against Louisiana-Monroe, Tony Franklin’s offense had no play longer than seven yards and they converted just 5-of-15 third downs for the game. AUBURN, 30-13.

   *ALABAMA over TULANE by 27

   Mr. Saban and crew had 7 months to prepare for last week’s Georgia Dome battle and it showed. His offense controlled the ball for an insane 41 minutes, had no turnovers, and converted 11-of-17 on third down. At Tulane, Bob Toledo’s offense requires an intimate knowledge of the system – something that just was not possible last year in year one. The skill players and o-line are now vets of the system and despite losing their RB horse, will fare okay vs. their own class. But the hurricane thing threatened to ruin their prep week for this, and Alabama already owned a game under the belt edge. On defense, the visitors are likely to play more zone defense after struggling at times with man. Tide QB JP Wilson has struggled in his career when forced to make multiple reads against zone defense. ALABAMA, 37-10.

   *NEBRASKA over SAN JOSE STATE by 25

   If Nebraska’s offense can run all over the inferior foes like this one, scoring and eating clock, then there isn’t enough time for that opponent to get ‘er done. The onus is upon Yonus , San Jose’s sixth-year senior running back, to help keep the ball away from Nebraska. But reports say that two offensive line starters, Leatiota and Castillo, almost certainly won't play until the third game. Hey, they can’t fool us, this is only the second game! Still, no pointspread lead is safe with Nebraska’s defense. NEBRASKA, 48-23.

   *OREGON over UTAH STATE by 38

   Utah State will collect their game check along with some serious bruises after matching up with a much more athletic Duck team in Autzen Stadium. Aggie fans should consider it a wiif they score double digits and/or if they score some free Nike gear. It is likely that the Belotti will be playing his two freshmen QB’s – so be patient if siding with team glow-in-the-dark.

   OREGON, 45-7.n

   RECOMMENDED

   *OKLAHOMA over CINCINNATI by 30

   Sooner coach Bob Stoops is on a mission to avenge last year’s Fiesta Bowl loss to West Virginia. He couldn’t prove anything against Chattanooga last week, so the Bearcats will serve as the sacrifice to the football gods. Stoops put his starters back in last week when leading 50-2 in the second half because as he stated, they “still needed to be sharp next week”. Cinci is a good squad, but they rely heavily on their athleticism and ability to create

   turnovers to win ballgames. Easier to take advantage of average Big East teams than against a national power. QB Bradford will have plenty of time to find his targets, especially given the fact that the Bearcats are replacing their starting defensive ends from last year – one who chalked up 13 sacks. After losing to Boise State two years ago, the Sooners put up no fewer than 51 points in the four games that followed. They may not hit the half century mark this go-round, but the same statement will be made. OKLAHOMA,

   44-14.

   *OHIO STATE over OHIO by 35

   Visiting Ohio coach Solich and his popgun offense had 1.8 rushing yards per attempt in last week’s close game at Wyoming, and look ahead to the home and MAC opener vs. Central Michigan. They won’t get much on the ground here, either. When they try to pass after not being able to run, they will suffer a pick-pick here and a pick-pick there. Does Solich sacrifice his starters for four quarters in what appears to be a non-winnable game before it starts? The Buckeyes’ back-ups could start for Ohio, so they’ll always be in a 1s vs. 2s situation despite an absence from #1 RB Beanie Wells with USC on deck. OHIO STATE, 45-10.

   *WISCONSIN over MARSHALL by 24

   The Marshall defensive front should improve upon their 4.8 yard per carry mark from a year ago, but this week won’t help the average. Wisky’s o-line averages 316 pounds and has 100+ starts under their elastic waistlines. Throw in the fact that the visitors just made the switch to a 3-4 defense in the spring and you get a recipe for a Madison-style stampede.

   WISCONSIN, 35-11.

   BEST BET

   *FLORIDA over MIAMI-FL by 9

   A possible Hurricane named Hanna could wreak havoc with this game, but let’s proceed as if it will be prepped for and played without interruption. Florida may have scored 56 on a transitional Hawaii club, but the total was courtesy of 3 defensive/special teams TD’s and 3 more scores of 33, 48, and 62 yards. They’ll have to work much harder against an ultra-athletic intra-state opponent trying to re-build their

   reputation. What better way than to battle the poster child for Sunshine State football in their own house? The ‘Canes’ staff has had months to prepare given last week’s softball of a game against Charleston Southern. How do they hit the 94 mile-per-hour slider that is the Gators? Look for Shannon and crew to run the ball right at the Florida defensive front, an area manned by unproven youngsters. Before they fell behind, Hawaii had some

   success doing just that with their backs and UGA gashed a better Gator defensive front in 2007. Success here will keep the ball out of Tebow’s hands – a key to hanging with Meyer’s bunch. Miami was blasted 51-13 at Oklahoma in week two last year and will not oblige the Swamp faithful with an encore. FLORDIA, 27-18.

   TEXAS TECH over *NEVADA by 11

   Red Raider QB Harrell will seek to play keep away from a Nevada offense that can easily rack up 200+ yards rushing and passing. Unfortunately for the home dog, the secondary lacks experience and will be chasing Tech WRs all over the field – after they catch the ball. TEXAS TECH, 42-31.

   *GEORGIA over CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 24

   The Dawgs may let the Chips hang around for a quarter or two, but based on the rate that BCS schools scored on Central last year – Kansas (52), Purdue (45), Clemson (70) – UGA will pull away to win by 6-8 lengths. Central Mich head coach Butch Jones let the young, backup matadors attempt to take care of business vs. opponents like this last season, while the guaranteed money in the bank was gaining interest for the university. A first half play with the Vegas dog may not be a bad play, as the land’s #1 could be looking ahead to next week’s clash with South Carolina. GEORGIA, 48-24.

   *PENN STATE over OREGON STATE by 19

   The Happy Valley faithful will leave ecstatic after PSU controls the line of scrimmage on both sides and uses their 2005’esque dynamic offense to put up points early and often. The Beavers have some athletes on offense, who basically provided all of the offense against Stanford. JoePa has athletes to match on defense and will force OSU to sustain drives. The visitors have turned in some of the most ill-prepped, mistake-prone road performances

   under this particular head coach, and opened the season with one of those against a highstandard admission Pac 10 foe, no less. Oregon State players make too many bad decisions to be able to provide much of a consistent challenge. PENN STATE, 36-17.

   *WYOMING over AIR FORCE by 6

   The Falcons played their game in week one – (1) 76 runs/12 passes and (2) short 3rd down tries leading to 11-of-19 on third down conversions. Life won’t be quite as easy this week for a young offense and first year QB who’s replacing a 4-year starter. The Cowboys play tough defense at home and will play ball control with a big/experienced o-line. Home team is battle tested after a one-point win vs. Ohio and will use that experience to go 2-0.

   WYOMING, 27-21.

   RECOMMENDED

   *WASHINGTON over BYU by 3

   An “also ran” in their own class, the Huskies should fare better by dropping down and facing one of the non-BCS conference’s best. It worked for Willingham’s club last year when they took out Boise State in Seattle, 24-10. Washington QB Locker will be much better against this young defense that returns only three from last year, than he was against Oregon’s excellent defensive unit (12/28 for 103 yards). His giant o-line will also appreciate the change in scenery as they use their bulk to control the offensive front, giving

   the dynamic signal caller the opportunity to run or throw. BYU chucked it all around the field in Week 1, but will face an experienced secondary that will keep the ball in front. This week in the national media… Willingham will by synonymous with pink slips, BYU with BCS buster.We kinda like Washington, plus points, and cash.WASHINGTON, 30-27.

   *NOTRE DAME over SAN DIEGO STATE by 17

   The most striking feature of Aztec civilization was human sacrifice, a primitive tradition nevertheless carried on by the San Diego State football program via scheduling too hard, then losing bodies and battles early and often. But as Year Three of Chuck Long’s regime hits, they are almost as healthy, and almost as mysterious, as they can be. New faces have been

   groomed to be there for a while, and the old ones weren’t much. One of the old ones who was a little something, QB Kevin O’Connell, was dissed by Long when the coach stated that current starter Ryan Lindley stays in the pocket and looks for the third check-down, unlike his fearful predecessor. After working the kinks out vs. triple-option terrors Cal Poly last Saturday, the Aztecs also own a game-under-the-belt edge against the Irish, whose “highly

   ranked recruits” have all the pressure coming out of the gate. NOTRE DAME, 31-14.

   *NEW MEXICO over TEXAS A&M by 1

   More teams will lose 26-3 to TCU this season, so New Mexico shouldn’t be too dissed for that. After all, it’s almost as exactly as we expected it to be, was it not (27-7 Best Bet call)? A&M’s new coaching staff – not one we’d have assembled but we’re not Mike Sherman -- couldn’t prepare ‘em well enough for a home opener vs. Arkansas State of the Sun Belt, so seven days and a trip to Albuquerque to face another stranger is not enough time. Sherman to staff: ‘What’s a 3-3-5 defense?’ Staff to Sherman: ‘What’? During the off-season, A&M’s Year One head coach said of Dennis Franchione’s last team: “I think we played down to the level of the opponent last year.” Strange, considering the Aggies played the nation’s #1-ranked schedule on the strength scale. If the coach has no idea about what he speaks, you probably don’t want to be on him. NEW MEXICO, 17-16.

   RECOMMENDED

   *PITTSBURGH over BUFFALO by 21

   UB’s pair of 100-yard rushers from last week’s blowout win – Starks and Thermilus – will find the going much tougher against the front seven that defensive-minded Dave Wannstedt has crafted. If Pitt allows as many as 100 rushing yards in this game, Wannstedt’s mustache will curl up and shed, and he will order the entire defense run extra laps – if he still has a job. Pitt’s defense, which allowed only 15 first downs last Saturday to a good offensive opponent -- will jam the middle, seal the edges, put UB QB Drew Willy in tougher situations than he’d prefer to have, maybe snap his interceptionless

   streak (currently 251 straight attempts), and prevent first downs. Can’t say any of that about UB’s, defense. The 14-0 lead that Pitt blew last week is not something that Buffalo can come back from. Following last week’s result, the entire Pitt program is on notice. Muscles will be flexed. PITTSBURGH, 27-6.

   RECOMMENDED

   *OKLAHOMA STATE over HOUSTON by 25

   First-year Cougar chief Sumlin was the co-offensive coordinator for Oklahoma the last two years, so neither coaching staff will be surprised by much. Edge rolls towards the fourth-year coach with more talent playing at home. Gundy’s Cowboys have lost only to ranked teams at home in the last two years. Last we checked, Houston wasn’t sniffing the top 25. Okie St.’s offense sputtered at times on the road last week with their no-huddle spread, but got things rolling in the fourth quarter. Gundy took over play-calling duties this season so some hiccups were to be expected out of the chute. Houston switched to a 4-3 this season and will struggle with the new system against a talented and veteran offensive line that is used to paving the way for big-time yards, especially at home.

   OKLAHOMA STATE, 49-24.

   *IOWA STATE over KENT STATE by 3

   QB Austen Arnaud basically needed only to turn around and execute the handoff in his ISU debut, after South Dakota State’s aborted drives (six of them five plays or fewer). Put him on a longer field, with less time to work with following more effective drives and a score or two by the Kents, and home favorite players might not like what they see. IOWA STATE, 19-16.

   *WAKE FOREST over MISSISSIPPI by 7

   Wake’s average margin of victory in 2007 was 6 points, so last week’s 28-point Best Bet thrashing of Baylor ain’t the norm. Ole Miss will push back a bit more, but will find the goings tough against a quirky offense manned by an ultra-efficient QB. First-year Rebel coach Houston Nutt doesn’t know what sort of road personality his team might have, making preparation a bit more difficult. Deacon QB Skinner will make fewer mistakes than Rebel QB

   Snead, and that’ll be the difference. WAKE FOREST, 24-17.

   CALIFORNIA over *WASHINGTON STATE by 15

   Washington State’s spread offense was a disaster against a very average Okie State defense. Their reward – a date with Cal’s much better D. The Cougars will be a double-digit home dog this time and will have trouble keeping it around the number if their defense isn’t up for the challenge. They hung in there for three quarters last week, but it gets tough to stay motivated when your offense is stuck in cement. CAL, 34-19.

   BEST BET

   *WESTERN MICHIGAN over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 20

   The Westerns have dominated Time of Possession but managed only consecutive narrow wins vs. NIU the last two seasons. This time around, perhaps they’ll continue to dominate the clock while also putting a scoreboard gap between themselves and the visitor. To help them create it, they are employing a 24-season mole from NIU, Mike Sabock. As the Huskies’ former recruiting coordinator for the last 12 seasons during the since-exiled

   Novak regime, he knows where all the holes exist in a defense that allowed 434 yards per game last season, and 425 yards to Minnesota last Saturday. NIU’s offense went nowhere on the ground in the Metrodome. Although they transition back into the MAC, they are actually facing a better pass defense in this match-up and probably a better defense overall. Western has pocketed $800,000 from the trip to Nebraska, where they stiffed us. They owe us, and they are dropping in class. WESTERN MICHIGAN, 41-21.

   SOUTH FLORIDA over *CENTRAL FLORIDA by 12

   Since declaring war on his Sunshine State neighbor to the southwest for the purpose of starting a rivalry – to which USF responded with a yawn and some under-the-thumb beat-backs– UCF head coach George O’Leary is 0-3 SU and ATS, resembling the sliced-up Monty Python warrior in the beginning of the Holy Grail movie. They invite USF back for more. But does UCF know what it’s about on offense yet, when they can’t give the ball to Kevin (I’m on the Detroit Lions now) Smith on every other play? If they have to start throwing it around, USF’s pass rush is something to fear. But when USF isn’t getting turnovers, their offense still needs to prove a few things. What we’re rooting for here is a game that plays right to the number, so as not to create any tip-offs about either overrated side. SOUTH FLORIDA, 24-12.

   BEST BET

   CONNECTICUT over *TEMPLE by 21

   UConn head coach Randy Edsall was furious following last Thursday’s opening 35-3 win vs. Hofstra, which is exactly the mindset you want from your road-favorite head coach going against a relatively phony upstart home dog. From Edsall’s point of view, the Huskies have a lot of messes to clean up from that game, especially on offense. But they have a veteran crew and are very eligible to take a step forward. The UConn defense allowed only a field goal after being bait-and-switched by the Long Island boys, who used a quarterback that Connecticut didn’t prepare for. Which is basically how Army’s offense goes into its games, so you give Temple zero bonus points for what might have appeared to be an impressive, 35-7 win against the hapless Cadets last Friday night, where they generated only 265 offensive yards. As suggested here in the projection, several Temple scores were the result of gifts presented to them by Army. Last season’s ultra-sweaty, 22-17 home win vs. Temple in Week 3, which was pre-Pitt, is all the more reason for the Big East boys to take this trip seriously. CONNECTICUT, 31-10.

   BEST BET

   *KANSAS over LOUISIANA TECH by 35

   The Bulldogs’ outright win when getting 7.5 at home against Mississippi State sets them up nicely for a painful fall. La. Tech coach Dooley knows the SEC and why not – his dad is a Georgia legend that played his ball at Auburn. The Big 12 – not so much knowledge there. As noted in last week’s Recommended winner, Sylvester Croom’s offense stalled, turned it over, and was about as dynamic as a career librarian. Kansas is more the 3 am underground nightclub type and will create matchup problems for a less athletic Bulldog defense. QB Reesing was ultra-efficient against FIU and that trend will continue as he

   manages drives, protects the ball, and makes plays this week. Should the Jayhawk offense fail to fly at times – no sweat – La Tech QB (Georgia Tech transfer) Taylor Bennett was 15-of-40 last week and historically struggles against speed due to his heavy feet and weak arm. Lawrence, Kansas was rocking last week as the fan base reacts to last year’s 12-1 mark. That was for FIU, arguably the worst team in D1-A – or whatever they call it these days. The visitors are in for a rude awakening. KANSAS, 42-7.

   RICE over *MEMPHIS by 2

   On C-USA battlegrounds, Rice’s offense tends to leave its mark, as long as QB Chase Clement is the guy pulling the trigger. Memphis has weaponry, a potentially more devastating array than Rice’s, but they haven’t figured out how to maximize it consistently and the defense is on a par with Rice’s matadors, who tend to get flattened by the kind of decent rushing attacks that Memphis doesn’t have. As pointed out in last week’s SMU-Rice projection, which then materialized before the nation’s eyes on ESPN, Rice’s defense has an uncanny knack for coming up with the big pick against inexperienced, or experienced-idiot opposing quarterbacks. Memphis has both – newbie Arkelon Hall, and holdover Hudgens. RICE, 38-36.

   *UTAH over UNLV by 24

   The Rebels will have to improve on last week’s 353-yard performance against Utah State if covering is in the cards. Despite a win in the Big House, the Utes averaged a paltry 0.8 yards per carry and had 15 penalties. Match that in week two and the media Cinderella could become an evil step sister overnight. That said, Utah has too many athletes and too much experience to drop the ball at home. Did you know that after losing 27-0 loss to UNLV last season during their injury-recovery period, Utah allowed just 7, 14, 3, 0 10 and 17 points to Mountain West opponents the rest of the way? UTAH, 34-10.

   *ARIZONA over TOLEDO by 20

   ‘Zona went anti-passing spread offense by rushing 49 times to 31 passes en route to 70 points last Saturday night. Playing Idaho allows you to do that. Toledo packs more athletes in their travel bag and they have eight in the secondary with starting experience to combat what the Cats really want to do. Problem for the Rockets – other than having an apparent gambling problem within the sports programs -- is that their pass rush couldn’t bust a grape last year (9 sacks) and won’t do much against an offensive front that is better than most they will see in the MAC. Points, yards, athletes – that’ll be the general theme of the post-game summary. ARIZONA, 41-21.

   *ARIZONA STATE over STANFORD by 16

   Lost in the Cardinal’s upset win against Oregon State. was their lack of secondary speed. Beaver wideouts regularly burned the high-IQ safeties using nothing more than superior athleticism. The Devils will provide similar matchup problems in the passing game. Unfortunately for Harbaugh, mounting a comeback will be difficult with a lackluster aerial attack that went sub-100 yards in game one. Look for the visitors to hang through the half on determination alone. It won’t be enough. ARIZONA ST. 33-17.

   BEST BET

   TEXAS over *UTEP by 12

   There will be no knee-jerking based on Texas’ rout of FAU, and UTEP’s being routed by Buffalo. Different week, different teams, and UTEP's new 3-3-5 defense was the wrong defense to go into Buffalo with, given UB’s ability to run, run, run against wispy defenders like UTEP’s. All is far from perfect in the UTEPian society, as three INTs, a dropped punt snap, and two 100-yard rushers for Buffalo attest. But Mike Price was worried that his Miners would be looking ahead to this rare opportunity to host a ranked, intra-state power on ESPN2.Was he was worried because he was one of those looking ahead, and didn’t bother preparing them for the ho-hum trip to Buffalo? Against Texas, Florida Atlantic converted four of its first five third downs to start the game, with big pass plays of 22, 15, 33 and 62 yards on each conversion. After FAU scored 10 firsthalf points, new Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp made some adjustments and the Owls were shut out in the second half, but they had given Texas some full-game

   ammo when their coach suggested the Longhorns were soft. “We brought it to 'em, showed 'em we were tough and can play a full 60 minutes," said one Texas RB. But is Texas prepared to do that for a second straight game when they are looking ahead to hosting Arkansas in Austin? UTEP will not stop playing in this one. TEXAS, 42-30.

   *IOWA over FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL by 27

   FIU’s fledgling football program is not to be trusted on the power conference road. They gained 2.5 yards per play at Kansas last Saturday. Iowa’s defense is better, but Kirk Ferentz will juggle quarterbacks Christiansen and Stanzi. Christiansen is pouting about it. Coach Cristobal to IU’s AD: ‘Please send that sizable check to: FIU, 11200 SW 8th Street, Miami, FL…IOWA, 30-3.

   *ARKANSAS over LOUISIANA-MONROE by 14

   Sure, the Hogs were two minutes away from becoming pulled pork at the hands of Western Illinois. For those expecting the same or worse, check out the following: (1) starting tailback Michael Smith was served with a pre-game suspension, meaning that a true freshman was to carry the running load; and (2) Western Illinois started six of eleven possessions in Arkansas territory – that’s ridiculous and won’t be repeated. Petrino’s team won’t be worldbeaters, but ULM beaters. they have the better talent and the home field. ARKANSAS, 28-14.

   TULSA over *NORTH TEXAS by 19

   Miraculously, UNT’s Giovanni Vizza did not throw an interception at Kansas State. He evened things out by averaging only 3.4 yards per attempt. A hurry-up offense that gets only 56 plays cannot be trusted when Tulsa’s offense is shooting for 90. "Tulsa is one of those teams you just really have to be prepared for," UAB safety Will Dunbar said. "If you're not in the right spot, you're going to get burned.” North Texas’ defense hasn’t been in the right spot for two years. TULSA, 48-29.

   *FLORIDA ATLANTIC over UAB by 11

   FAU starting QB Rusty (Big Play) Smith did not get sacked in 31 pass attempts at Texas, and managed to throw for 8.2 Yards Per Attempt. But don’t underestimate UAB’s overall team speed and the cumulative effect that chasing QB Joe Webb around might have on the FAU defense. FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 34-23.

   MARYLAND over *MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 11

   Holding Delaware’s offense to just seven’ points was pretty good for the Maryland defense… or was it, considering that the Blue Hens were playing their first game since 2005 without Joe Flacco as the QB? Maryland’s QBs Steffy and Portis are not to be trusted as they are juggled around by Ralphie Boy as a team from the maligned ACC journeys into a strange land (and what appears to be a bad team, but Troy knew where most of the holes were). MARYLAND, 24-13.

   *LSU over TROY by 20

   With inexperienced QBs, LSU’s comfort zone involves handing the ball off to super-talented RBs behind a massive offensive front. They will rely on this until the beginning of conference play. Translation…the Trojan front seven is in for a long, bruising Saturday. Troy does have athletes – many of them power-conference casualties who needed a place to land. The depth isn’t enough to hang with the SEC elite for 60 minutes, but don’t be surprised if they cover a sizeable number in Death Valley, with LSU distracted earlier in the week by Hurricane Gustav stuff. LSU, 34-14.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 3 2008 9:28pm
7. 0 likes

   Sports Reporter

   Vol. 34, No. 2 WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2008

   THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4

   *NY GIANTS over WASHINGTON by 6

   The Zorn-for-Gibbs move means a more efficient offense for the Redskins, even if they haven’t shown it yet. Nor would anyone be surprised to see Redskins’ veteran Todd Collins come off the bench at some point of this game, to give the Washington offense a lift if Jason Campbell still can’t spark a unit filled with decent offensive talent. But that would mean that

   Washington is trailing, and attempting a comeback against an opponent that has a well-balanced offense with an ability to control the clock and make coming from behind harder than it normally would be. The Giants’ defense got 58 sacks when it had Omenyiora and Strahan at the ends last year. Neither is there now, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuola is liable to blitz from anywhere, the Giants secondary is pretty good in coverage, and

   Washington’s best wide receivers won’t be out-jumping anybody. Redskins have a nice defense, too, but Jason Taylor’s absence offsets the Giants’ DE woes. The Giants sobered up from a Super Bowl hangover when they watched tape of their mistake-filled, weather-blown Week 15 home loss to Washington last season. NY GIANTS, 27-21.

   SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

   *BALTIMORE over CINCINNATI by 4

   The world is hating Baltimore, 3-13 ATS last season, new head coach, and with a troubling quarterback situation. Kyle Boller, the veteran projected starter, has a partially torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. The two back-ups are rookie Joe Flacco, and Troy Smith, both accidents waiting to happen. But Boller has not been ruled out of this game, yet. If they were on

   the road against a good defense, then you’d want no part of the Ravens. But they are home against a bad defense, and former Bengals’ wide receivers coach Hue Jackson is on their side now, helping to neutralize Cincinnati’s only strength, while Baltimore’s very competent defense maintained coaching continuity (DC Ryan) despite the head coaching change. Last season’s 0-2 SU and ATS vs. the Bengals was accomplished with 6 turnovers made each

   time by the Ravens’ offense, many of them directly attributable to the mercifully retired Steve McNair. Clean up the mess and get by. But only with Boller. BALTIMORE, 23-19.

   NEW YORK JETS over *MIAMI by 3

   Last year, these division rivals were among the sorriest teams in the NFL, serving as the whipping boys of the AFC. The extensive humiliation must have spurred both teams into drastic action, as the Jets splurged tens of millions of dollars on free agents – not to mention a certain quarterback who wears number 4 – while the Dolphins hired Bill Parcells to become team president, who then commenced to purge the team of the past regime’s players and remake the franchise in his image – starting with the new head coach, Tony Sparano, former offensive line coach for the Dallas Cowboys. The Dolphins won’t be so soft anymore, but it’s not going to be an easy rebuild when you’re playing with the scraps from a 1-15 squad. The Jets have more immediate expectations, especially with the addition of Bret

   Favre, but is Eric Mangini up to the job? The utter collapse of last season begs the question of whether last year, or the year before, was the fluke. Their release of Chad Pennington served to immediately upgrade the state of the Miami offense and could provide the Dolphins with an edge going into what should be an introductory game for Gang Green’s newly formulated

   group of mercenaries. NEW YORK JETS 21-18.

   *NEW ENGLAND over KANSAS CITY by 17

   Opponents will be better prepared to handle the explosive Patriots offense this year, on the heels of record-breaking seasons by Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The adjustments could be seen even in the second half of last season as their string of blowouts were replaced by New England consistently failing to cover the spread. However, even with a widely

   applauded draft class and a dedicated youth movement, Kansas City looks lost in this match-up. Can Brodie Croyle move the offense without turning it over? Does Larry Johnson have mileage left in those legs, or is this a case similar to Shaun Alexander’s? Herm Edwards can sure inspire his players, but can he game-plan against the likes of Bill Belichick? The Chiefs will grind the ball and try to limit New England’s time of possession. The real question is whether the Patriots passing game opens the year sharply and short circuits Edwards’ strategy. NEW ENGLAND 27-10.

   RECOMMENDED

   HOUSTON over *PITTSBURGH by 3

   Without inferior showings across the board against their AFC South rivals, the Houston Texans could have been a playoff level team. Achieving an 8-8 record, despite their poor divisional play and overreliance on Sage Rosenfels, shows just how far the Texans have come under Gary Kubiak. Houston is clearly a team on the rise and only injuries will slow their ascent. Meanwhile, the Steelers are a team that has yet to prove themselves to be as good as they can be with Mike Tomlin as head coach instead of Bill Cowher. After a

   dominating start to the season, the Steelers petered out as the schedule progressed and made very little changes in the off-season to make you think that they can gear up for another extended playoff push. Their o-line might be a little down, while Houston’s d-line might be on the rise. Expect the unexpected, as the Texans take advantage of balmy weather in Pittsburgh to exact an upset. HOUSTON 20-17.

   BEST BET

   *TENNESSEE over JACKSONVILLE by 9

   The Titans embarrassed the Jaguars last season, running all over their defensive line for over 300 yards and ultimately motivating the Jacksonville defense to get their act together. Despite an incredibly successful regular season and a better than usual showing in the playoffs, the Jaguars made wholesale changes to their defensive line, including the drafting of Derrick Harvey in the first round and finally signing him to a slot-level contract

   a few days ago. With Fred Taylor getting arrested for disorderly conduct a few nights ago (just what you want from a “veteran leader,” right?) and the Jaguars seemingly sharing in the over-inflated sense of self that many elite level teams succumb to, there’s good reason to think that Jeff Fisher and his conservative, but successful, ground-based attack will once again stymie an overconfident Jaguars squad who must adapt to a new defensive coordinator. That didn’t work out too well for, say, the NY Giants against a

   mobile QB and a strong offensive line when the Giants faced a division rival in last year’s opener, did it? Jags might be behind a similar 8-ball. TENNESSEE 29-20.

   DETROIT over *ATLANTA by 7

   The Lions got a lot of mistakes out of the way when Mike Martz was the offensive coordinator, developing a passing game that was non-existent under the prior Mariucci regime, where a small-play team would try to sneak its way past people with chicken-QB Joey Harrington. Jon Kitna has some guts – not a lot of talent, of course. But with mentors like Mike Holmgren,

   Bob Bratkowski and Mike Martz during his 12 NFL seasons, experience counts for something, even with Kitna. It has been announced that rookie Matt Ryan from Boston College will be the Atlanta starter.With experienced NFL veterans at quarterback, the Falcons opened ’06 and ’07 with 2-5 and 1-6 records. The Lions’ defense got the ball to pop out of the other team’s hands 40 times last season, not counting interceptions. For all the jokes that have

   been sent Detroit’s way, they have actually been groomed to be something since Rod Marinelli took over in ‘06. Atlanta has only been jerked around since then, with three different coaching regimes and a mass exodus of veterans. DETROIT, 20-13.

   SUPER BEST BET

   *BUFFALO over SEATTLE by 21

   Obomanu is out of the race!…to be the Seahawks’ go-to receiver in this game. The inexperienced guy was the #1 candidate among a young group of Seattle wideouts being called upon to pick up the slack in the absence of injured veterans Bobby Engram and Deion Branch. We’ve always insisted that wide receivers are the easiest to lose, plug in, and move forward with. However, considering the transition occurring on Seattle’s offensive

   line, at running back and at tight end, Engram stood as one of the ‘’sure things’’ for a revamped unit. Where does this leave the Seattle offense other than up the Erie Canal without a paddle, in a game they can afford to lose as long as they get ’er done vs. NFC West rivals coming up in Weeks 2 and 3? Matt Hasselbeck played in only one pre-season game at quarterback, wasn’t practicing with his usual receivers, won’t be playing with ‘em, either. To add to the degree of difficulty, the opposing Bills are in the third season of a gradual transition to a Cover-2 defense, which has a history of stopping West

   Coast offenses like Seattle’s. Defensive linemen provide all the pressure, reducing the need for blitzes. When the front four play its gaps correctly, they clog up running lanes and force the running backs to run outside (not where Julius Jones excels), where the corners, linebackers, and safeties all help. If Seattle’s defense was ever meant to bail them out here, the one-game suspensions to starting defensive back Rocky Bernard and

   nickel back Jordan Babineaux just made that task harder as the Marshawn Lynch-powered running game triggers an upsiding Bills’ offense. BUFFALO, 30-9.

   *NEW ORLEANS over TAMPA BAY by 6

   The Saints fell far short of expectations last year as the defense failed to reach even the most modest of goals while the offense sputtered because of an inconsistent running attack and poor depth at wide receiver. Even though Drew Brees put together a good season, it wasn’t enough to keep the Saints in the race. Tampa Bay was recovering from a poor 2006 showing to solidify their offense under the guidance of Jeff Garcia while displaying enough defensive acumen to win the NFC South and advance to the playoffs. What a difference one offseason can make! New Orleans spent the spring and summer revamping their defense, emphasizing their defensive line in hopes making their secondary more effective. On offense, they traded for disgruntled New York tight end Jeremy Shockey, giving Brees a steady pair

   of hands to throw to between the hashmarks. In contrast, Tampa Bay didn’t do much to change the personnel from last year’s squad – other than a brief flirtation with Bret Favre that may have only served to damage clubhouse chemistry. Look for these teams to go in opposite directions this season, starting now. NEW ORLEANS 26-20.

   *PHILADELPHIA over ST. LOUIS by 10

   Debuting on the road against the Philadelphia defense -- which might bend, rarely breaks, always blitzes from anywhere and added speed and interception ability when they acquired Asante Samuel -- is probably not the place for a much healthier St. Louis 2008 offense to begin re-discovering the magic. The elusive RB Brian Westbrook is a good weapon to have against the Rams’ aggressive defensive front. Screen to Westbrook, 15 yards, first

   down…Meanwhile, if some of Philly’s new wideouts and returners get their share of touches, the Eagles might look more like the Rams than the Rams do. PHILADELPHIA, 27-17.

   BEST BET

   DALLAS over *CLEVELAND by 17

   Why did Wade Phillips hire Cleveland’s three-season defensive coordinator Todd Grantham away from the Browns prior to this season? Could it be that he knows that the NFC East games have a good chance to be 3-3, and that he is attempting to secure an edge in the four non-conference games against the AFC North? Hey, after Arizona’s new coaching staff came over from Pittsburgh last year, the Cardinals – the Cardinals, mind you – eventually went 4-0 ATS vs. AFC North opponents. So, there you have a little unseen potential for Dallas, on top of all the offensive firepower that everybody knows about. Grantham oversaw a 3-4 defense in Cleveland, the same style that the Cowboys have been attempting to become better at playing since Phillips arrived. He knows where the many holes are in Cleveland’s front – new DT Shaun Rogers notwithstanding – and Dallas’ big offensive line is good at creating holes on its own to begin with. Adam Jones

   in Dallas’ secondary, and on punt returns, has the potential to create instant momentum swings for the Cowboys. If they didn’t already know who Derek Anderson was after the nice things Cleveland’s offense did last season, then the Cowboys know it now with Grantham there to help attack the immobile young dude while Romo is dancing around and keeping the Browns off balance. The Browns were 7-1 SU on this field, 12-3-1 ATS overall last year. Big whoopity whoop. It’s not last year. DALLAS, 27-10.

   *SAN DIEGO over CAROLINA by 10

   LaDanian Tomlinson was rested during the preseason. Antonio Gates is complaining of nagging injuries. Shawne Merriman is playing on a knee that may give at any second… and the Chargers have the NFL’s best depth to account for all of that. The Panthers are a team that knows this is the season to show what they can do – with several years of underwhelming

   performance following their Super Bowl appearance, John Fox and his staff can feel the pressure building – and so can their core group of players. Look for the Panthers to come out running, with two good young running backs in their stable, and for the return of Muhsin Muhammed to restore balance to the passing game, but maybe not until Steve Smith returns from a three-game suspension. For this, Jake Delhomme is playing against his first serious defense since he was injured very early last year, with the Chargers being the reigning leading interceptors in the land. They are not about the Jake some WD-40 to help remove the rust. SAN DIEGO, 24-14.

   ARIZONA over SAN FRANCISCO by 6

   It’s make or break time for the 49ers as Mike Nolan enters what is sure to be his final season in San Francisco – unless the 49ers unexpectedly make the playoffs or sniff around a .500 record. Regardless of whatever unachievable goals have been set in the Bay Area, the Nolan era is one that both fans and players are tired of – earmarks of a management team that is sure to underachive, as opposed to a more fortunate result. In contrast, the Cardinals are building from the ground up, an unsurprising strategy considering the management team they hired, and are a mere few steps away from dethroning the Seahawks as the team to beat in the ineffectual NFC West. Kurt Warner’s ascent to starting quarterback has to have won the goodwill of the locker room, who may or may not believe in Matt Leinart’s potential, but certainly have the eyesight to believe in Kurt Warner’s Super Bowl ring and MVP trophy. ARIZONA 27-21.

   *INDIANAPOLIS over CHICAGO by 14

   “Oh, Peyton Manning missed the entire pre-season for the Colts, so the Bears plus all these points are a lock!” Yeah, right. Mr. Manning has been practicing for many moons against the kind of defense that Chicago likes to play, which Lovie Smith was groomed in by Colts’ head coach Tony Dungy, and Monte Kiffin in Tampa Bay. At this point, Manning could probably rise

   from REM sleep and drill it into the seam of a zone for 17 yards, and he has learned to become patient and to take what the defense gives him, too. Anybody else think that Indy didn’t even play its best game on wet grass in the Super Bowl win against the Bears two seasons ago? Hard to envision Kyle Orton getting anything substantial accomplished for the often comical Chicago offense. INDIANAPOLIS, 30-16.

   MONDAY NIGHT, SEPTEMBER 8

   MINNESOTA over *GREEN BAY by 3

   "We feel very confident that we can throw the ball to win against anybody," Packers’ head coach Mike McCarthy said back in April. “But we need to improve inside in the run game." Well, the next team that improves inside in the run game against the Minnesota Vikings will be the first to do so in about three years. Flip side is that with Tarvaris Jackson as their QB, there is no way that Minnesota can say that they can throw the ball to win against anybody. It’s not like Jackson has incredible receivers who can separate from the sticky man coverage the Packers love to use. But the Vikings have a terrific offensive line, and one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL. This is a high-profile, intense, intra-division opener and perhaps the ultimate edge is that Green Bay is the only NFC North team not playing a Cover- 2 defense. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played against one, or been practicing against one. When the Vikings do their normally good job against the run, Rodgers will be passing into something difficult, where the desired four-man rush (for extra pass coverage without blitzing) got significantly stronger when the Vikings acquired NFL sack leader Jared Allen from the Chiefs. MINNESOTA, 23-20.

   RECOMMENDED TOTAL

   UNDER 41.5

   DENVER at OAKLAND

   We all know Mike Shanahan has long held an axe to grind against Al Davis’ skull for past transgressions, but does his team have the personnel to fulfill his blood grudge against the silver and black? Oakland experienced yet another offseason full of turmoil, but unquestionably upgraded their team. Coach Lane Kiffin finds himself with nothing to lose, knowing that if he is fired he will collect the full balance remaining on his contract – giving him the rare freedom to do as he pleases without fear of reprisal. That might mean the traditionally high-flying Raiders run the ball more than most teams in the NFL, featuring great depth at running back, including top draft pick Darren McFadden – this year’s version of Adrian Peterson. Denver is hoping to unveil a high-flying aerial attack to complement shaky depth at running back, but will be held back in the first game due to Brandon Marshall’s suspension and an improved Raiders’ secondary. Will any of Denver’s slow-footed back-up receivers be able to find room to manuever against Nnamdi Asomugha and DeAngelo Hall? Look for a game decided on the ground and by the respective defenses. DENVER, 16-13

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 3 2008 9:30pm
8. 0 likes

   Red Sheet 9/4-9/8

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   KANSAS 52 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 21½, & is now minus 20½.

   The line in this one has dropped about a TD, from what it would have been before last week's action, & it is simply non realistic. Sure, the Bulldogs pulled the upset of MissSt, much to our dismay, but remember that they trailed 14-3 at one point, before the turnover turned it all around, including a fumbled punt at the 10, followed by a penalty, when theywere apparently stopped. A year ago, we rode the Jayhawks, with their weekly rompers

   very rewarding. They opened in rather lackadaisical fashion in opening day rout, not allowing an "O" TD. But full attention here, following Tech's success, with plenty to spare.

   RATING: KANSAS 90

   PENN STATE 38 - Oregon State 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at PennSt minus 13, & is now minus 16½. No, a 3½ pt line movement in the wrong direction is hardly cause for celebration, but this one just sets up too nicely for the Lions. They've been one of the steadiest of home plays, completely dominating all but OhioSt in that role a year ago, & they return 9 starters from LY's 10th-ranked defense, including 7th vs the run. Now couple that with the Beavers managing only 86 RYs (3.1 ypr) in their opening week loss to a Stanford team which ranked 99th on defense in '07. OregonSt has dropped some bombs lately, in travelling to nonconference venues, & steady home play of the Lions (34-16 ATS) extends that trend.

   RATING: PENN STATE 89

   Northwestern 33 - DUKE 13 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Northwestern minus 6, & is now minus 6½. Going with the revenge motive is sometimes a knee-jerk reaction to a particular contest, with it far from automatic success, but in his case it just cannot be ignored. A year go, the Imps snapped a 22-game losing string, by upsetting the Wildcats, as 16-pt dogs. And yes, it was

   done with smoke & mirrors, as the 'Cats enjoyed edges of 25-15 in FDs, & 536-309 in yards. N'Western's opening win over Syracuse was a case of simply wearing down an opponent, with a rejuvenated RB Sutton (144 RYs), & QB Bacher (3 TDs) the catalysts. The 'Cats won their last 2 trips to Durham by 28-10 & 44-7 scores (21 & 19½ pt covers).

   RATING: NORTHWESTERN 89

   South Florida 40 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 17 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Line opened at SouthFlorida minus 13½, & is now minus 14. It is normally wise to stay away from bucking a team which has had a game circled for a year, but this just may be the case. In '07, the Knights of CentralFla were simply destroyed by the firepower & overwhelming defense of the Bulls, in a 64-12 wipeout, with an amazing yardage deficit of 543-145. That's nearly 400 yds, folks. And it wasn't a down year for the Knights, who posted a 10-win season. But the Bulls have risen to the 17th spot in the nation, with a renewed sense of dedication. More's the pity.

   RATING: SOUTH FLORIDA 88

   Maryland 33 - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 10 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Maryland minus 14, & is now minus 13½. We originally figured a much closer game, but respected sources have the Terps as a rather comfortable winner here. Sure, Maryland has California dead ahead, & was hardly impressive in its narrow opening week escape vs Delaware, save for Scott's 197 RYs in his first career start (7.6 ypr). QB Steffy tossed a couple of INTs, which resulted in his being benched, but look for vast improvement vs the Raiders, who came up short in their hugely important rematch vs Troy last week. Can't bypass juicy spread.

   RATING: MARYLAND 88

   BUFFALO 23 - Seattle 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at pick-em, & is now Buffalo minus 1. Obviously, if this one is decided by the QB position, it would be a no-brainer with the Seahawks in a walk, as Hasselbeck has the edge over Edwards (altho neither is in the best of health). But the Bills are a comer, & have the dominating back in Lynch, who ran for 1,115 yds & 7 TDs in his rookie season, & the Bills have added LB Mitchell & DT Stroud to a defense which held 4 of its final 5 foes to 17 pts or less. At home, the Bills failed only twice ATS last year. Those teams? Try the Super Bowl Patriots & Giants. Host in Seattle contests is golden.

   RATING: BUFFALO BILLS 88

   NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Alabama, Navy, ArizSt, Tulsa - NFL: Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Houston

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 3 2008 9:31pm
9. 0 likes

   Winning Points

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Winning Points 9/4 - 9/8

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   ****BEST BET

   PENN STATE* over OREGON STATE by 35

   No team in the nation has traveled worse in non-conference games the past three seasons that the Oregon State Beavers. Three years ago it was a 63-27 loss at Louisville as +13.5. Two years ago it was 42-14 at Boise State as +7.5. Then last year it was 34-3 at Cincinnati as -3.5. When you lose to the pointspread by an average of 26 points per game in a particular setting it is extremely meaningful, and we add an additional meaning this time around – those were all better Beaver squads than what Mike Riley is fielding right now. A program that has relied on a lead RB to stabilize the offense, and a staunch defensive front, has neither right now, which was fully evident when they were out-rushed 210-86 at Stanford last week. Want to find the last time that Stanford out-rushed a Pac 10 opponent by more than 100 yards? Give yourself plenty of time for the search. But that is what happens when you lose Yvenson Bernard on offense, and have to replace the entire

   front seven on the other side of the ball, and the growing pains will show throughout here against an explosive Penn State offense that can exploit those weaknesses. And do not be fooled by the 404 yards that Lyle Moevao threw for in last week’s loss, since he put the ball in the air 54 times vs. a defense that lacked a pass rush. Now it is a much tougher matchup vs. the Nitanny Lion defensive speed, and a team that is accustomed to being blown out in these settings is as vulnerable as ever, with the awkward travel from Corvallis to State College also taking a toll.

   PENN STATE 45-10.

   ***BEST BET

   MARYLAND over MIDDLE TENNESSEE* by 30

   When a team loses badly at home in a game that they were pointing for in a major way, a statement has been made. And when that same team had a +2 turnover advantage, and still lost to the spread by more than a full TD in that same game, an additional statement has been made. Add the statements up and we have the following – Middle Tennessee is a struggling program right now. After seeing a disappointing 2007 season end with an ugly 45-7 drubbing at Troy, Rick Stockstill and his Blue Raiders spent a great deal of the off-season trying to put the pieces together for a season-opening rematch against the Trojans, falling by 14 despite that turnover advantage, and getting beaten by a 4.7 to 3.4 count in yards per play. Now having failed in a game in which they were aiming perhaps too much for, we get them at the ideal team to be exploited here. And for our purposes we get outstanding

   value as well, with Maryland playing to a stodgy 14-7 on the scoreboard

   vs. Delaware that will not impress anyone. But that is a solid Delaware program that played for the national championship at their level LY, and the Terrapins did a lot of things right that did not make the scoreboard, particularly the 197 rushing yards from Da’Rel Scott, who can be a break-out player this season. Combine him with WR’s Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Ralph Friedgan has some legitimate playmakers. But three missed field goals kept some of that production off of the board last week, and that means a cheap price to lay with the far better team here.

   MARYLAND 40-10

   COLLEGE FOOTBALL

   **PREFERRED

   Boston College* over Georgia Tech by 17

   We believe that Paul Johnson is a good fit at Georgia Tech, and in time look forward

   to being able to cash a lot of tickets with him. But as is so often the case,

   major system changes lead a program to take a step backwards before they can fully

   grasp the playbooks. The Yellow Jackets move prove to be a classic example, and

   making matters tougher is being in the wrong place at the wrong time in this

   matchup. Tech was able to bully Jacksonville State at the line of scrimmage last

   week, creating the illusion that 349 rushing yards were a sign that the option attack

   is on track. But it was a vanilla game plan that relied on running through a smaller

   opponent, and we did not see much from the option schemes at all. Now they

   go up against one of the toughest defensive fronts in the country, which takes away

   the base plays and forces Josh Nesbitt to make plays in his first road start. That can

   lead to game-turning mistakes, and there is also an inability to throw from behind,

   which is where they will be in the second half. BOSTON COLLEGE 30-13.

   Wyoming* over Air Force by 13

   Troy Calhoun seemingly did a brilliant job at Air Force LY, breathing some life

   back into a program that had grown stale under Fisher DeBerry. But while we like

   much of what we saw, Calhoun was also in the right place at the right time, with

   veterans like Shaun Carney and Chad Hall that he could build around. Now

   instead of building off of that 9-4 campaign it is like starting all over again, and as

   vulnerable as most such teams can be in their first road game, this is a particularly

   difficult challenge. The Cowboys have been waiting a long time to erase the bitter

   memory of last year’s 20-12 loss in Colorado Springs, when they had commanding

   edges in first downs and total offense but were done in by a -4 turnover differential,

   including an 85-yard fumble return for a TD when they were leading and

   driving to break the game open in the fourth quarter. That staunch defensive front

   just shut down the Ohio ground game completely, and can control this one in the

   first road start for Falcon QB Seth Smith. WYOMING 27-14.

   Houston over Oklahoma State* by 1

   While the public tends to fawn over teams that show well early in inter-sectional

   matchups, what we see in Seattle on Saturday was more Washington State being

   bad than these Cowboys being anything special. That opens the door for a game

   that is much closer in talent than will be projected to be cashed at a high spread,

   with the underdog alive to win the whole shooting match. While admittedly some

   talented skill players were lost, as well as coach Art Briles, the Cougars have QB

   Case Keenum (threw for 393 yards and five TD’s to get warmed up on Saturday)

   and a veteran OL, which allows for an easy transition. And the new coaches bring

   a special focus here – head man Kevin Sumlin was the co-offensive coordinator at

   Oklahoma, and will know the Cowboys well, while defensive coordinator John

   Skladeny spent 10 years at Iowa State, before last season’s short stint at UCF. They

   bring a solid working knowledge of a non-conference opponent, and also an added

   spark to set a tone in their new surroundings. HOUSTON 31-30.

   Temple* over Connecticut by 3

   Al Golden’s Owls are now 5-3 in their last right games, with that confidence-boosting

   win at Army the ideal way to start the campaign. One of the signs that a program

   is growing is when a team has a genuine revenge affair and takes care of business,

   and after handling the Black Knights the way they did that focus comes into

   play again here, after a bitter 22-17 road loss to the Huskies last year when an

   apparent TD pass in the final minute was ruled out of bounds, and was a close

   enough call that replay could not over-turn it. From the comments since that loss

   they have not forgotten, and what we remember is that an underdog stood toe-totoe

   on the road, winning the rushing battle by 33 yards and 1.6 per attempt. That

   shows the physical capacity to compete in addition to the mental part of the Owl

   game improving, and the Huskies do not show us the playmakers in the skill positions

   to get anything easily on the road, and also have a bitter revenge game themselves

   on deck vs. Virginia (fell by a point to the Cav’s last year). TEMPLE 23-20.

   South Carolina over Vanderbilt* by 8 (Thursday)

   A major revenger here for the Old Ball Coach after being embarrassed 17-6 at

   home vs. the Commodores last year, and Spurrier’s defense can do their share

   against that young Vandy OL. But laying points with the Gamecock offense on the

   road is out of the question at this juncture. SOUTH CAROLINA 24-16.

   Ball State* over Navy by 3 (Friday)

   The Cardinal passing game is too much for a slow Navy secondary, and the State

   defense can not handle the Midshipmen option attack. That combination led to a

   34-31 thriller for Ball State at Annapolis last year, when both sides easily topped

   500 yards here, and this is more of the same, though the Navy QB situation does

   bear watching. BALL STATE 34-31.

   Michigan State* over Eastern Michigan by 22

   Have to wonder the toll that a bitter late night loss at Cal (with a little better execution

   it was the Spartans game to win) can take in the transition to this one.

   MICHIGAN STATE 35-13.

   Syracuse* over Akron by 7

   The last thing that an under-sized Akron defensive front needed to open the season

   was being bullied in the trenches they way they were at Wisconsin (404 rushing

   yards on 63 attempts). Carry-over fatigue opens the door to give Greg

   Robinson a chance for a home win that he needs desperately. SYRACUSE 26-19.

   Michigan* over Miami O. by 9

   If they over-price the stodgy Wolverine offense based on any bounce-back notions

   from the Utah loss this one moves up our list later in the week – if not for Ute miscues

   and penalties, last week’s scoreboard could have been much different.

   MICHIGAN 23-14.

   Northwestern over Duke* by 11

   Do the Northwestern’s of the world ever bring the kind of fire needed to consider

   “revenge” as a legitimate motive? It can be when you beat Duke by 10 first downs

   and 197 yards, yet lose on your own scoreboard. That stat box shows where the talent

   gap is, perhaps the focus takes care of the rest. NORTHWESTERN 30-19.

   CLOSE CALLS

   West Virginia over East Carolina* by 10

   Films of Pat White throwing five touchdown passes were the early message that Bill

   Stewart sent to all future opponents. As solid as the Pirate defense looked last week,

   they allowed 48 points and 599 yards in Morgantown last year, and that was without

   the new passing wrinkles. WEST VIRGINIA 31-21.

   Bowling Green* over Minnesota by 8

   The Falcons won in the Metrodome last year despite an 0-3 turnover differential,

   which we consider to be of extreme significance, and they showed plenty of moxie

   in the second half at Pittsburgh last week. BOWLING GREEN 34-26.

   Auburn* over Southern Miss by 17

   This is the last tune-up for the Tigers before a difficult stretch of five SEC games

   in as many weeks, and based on the stodgy offensive showing vs. UL-Monroe, they

   badly need some work in those new spread designs. It means no looking ahead, but

   it also means that they are not ready. AUBURN 30-13.

   Alabama* over Tulane by 24

   Although the Crimson Tide dominated the line of scrimmage for us in that BEST

   BET rout of Clemson, still not sure how much explosiveness there is on offense, or

   how much Nick Saban will want to show here, ALABAMA 34-10

   Nebraska* over San Jose State by 19

   Bo Pelini was able to deliver a feel-good win in front of the home folks last week,

   and is now offered the opportunity to duplicate that effort. While the defense may

   have only made baby steps last week, the Spartans muddled QB picture gives that

   unit a chance to grow in confidence. NEBRASKA 38-19.

   Oregon* over Utah State by 24

   If Mike Bellotti needs to break in yet another QB, this time Jeremiah Massoli, he

   at least gets the ideal opponent. OREGON 37-13.

   Oklahoma* over Cincinnati by 14

   A lack of market respect in recent years has led to a 26-8-1 ATS run by the

   Bearcats, one of the most successful for that length of time that we have ever charted.

   And it could be more of the same here, in a game that they do not match up

   nearly as badly in as the marketplace will project. OKLAHOMA 30-16.

   Ohio State* over Ohio by 24

   Vanilla has been Jim Tressel’s favorite flavor in this type of setting since he first

   came to Columbus, and with concerns about Beanie Wells and that huge showdown

   at Southern Cal on deck, it will be an even more bland scoop in this week’s

   cone. OHIO STATE 31-7.

   Wisconsin* over Marshall by 24

   New Marshall defensive coordinator Rick Minter certainly understands the kind of

   smashmouth tactics his players have to defend this week. But are there enough

   bodies to keep from eventually wilting? WISCONSIN 38-14.

   Florida* over Miami F. by 19

   The Gators are likely to be without Percy Harvey again (note how much they even

   missed him vs. Hawaii, with special teams and the defense scoring three of the

   touchdowns), which matters vs. this class of defense, but we do not believe the

   Hurricanes have the kind of maturity at QB to stay competitive in The Swamp for

   long. FLORIDA 31-12.

   Texas Tech over Nevada* by 8

   The Wolfpack have plenty of depth at QB, and a solid veteran cast in the OL to

   unleash the attack. But with a new defensive coordinator and a lot of new faces in

   the huddle on that side of the ball, do they have the speed or tactics to make many

   stops? Any? TEXAS TECH 38-30.

   Georgia* over Central Michigan by 18

   The Chippewas did not step up well on the road last year, getting crushed 52-7 at

   Kansas, 70-14 at Clemson and even 45-22 at Purdue. But the Bulldogs have an

   alarming number of injuries already, and with an SEC showdown at South

   Carolina next week Mark Richt will not be of a mind to exert any more effort here

   than is necessary. GEORGIA 34-16.

   Brigham Young over Washington* by 8

   The second-half fade at Oregon vs. an inexperienced QB was not a good sign for

   Ty Willingham this early in the season, and his defense could be shredded by a

   Cougar attack that is much more comfortable in their new designs than last year.

   But Jake Locker is athletic enough to make a few plays vs. a rebuilt B.Y.U. defense,

   which keeps it interesting for a while. B.Y.U. 34-26.

   Notre Dame* over San Diego State by 14

   A lot of early pressure in Charlie Weis to make something positive happen, and for

   one of the rare times in his tenure at South Bend he has the coaching advantage

   over Chuck Long, who appears to be over-matched. NOTRE DAME 31-17.

   Texas A&M over New Mexico* by 4

   Yes, the Aggies can blame giving away that lead vs. Arkansas State to four secondhalf

   turnovers. But to get out-rushed by over 100 yards at home vs. a Sun Belt

   opponent? Status of Donovan Porterie for New Mexico makes this cloudy for now.

   TEXAS A&M 23-19.

   Pittsburgh* over Buffalo by 15

   Dave Wannstedt is facing more pressure than perhaps any other 0-1 coach in the

   nation, but if you do not take care of the football when playing with a big lead at

   home vs. the likes of Bowling Green, the assumption of bouncing back with precision

   may be dubious. PITTSBYURGH 31-16.

   Iowa State* over Kent State by 11

   Gene Chizik’s first game as Iowa State head man was a 23-14 loss to these Golden

   Flashes last year in front of the folks at Ames. Memories like that linger, and that

   creates more passion than usual for a non-conference affair. IOWA STATE 30-19.

   Wake Forest* over Mississippi by 3

   It did not take Jevon Snead long to establish himself as “the man” on campus in

   Oxford, and the Rebels have some legitimate weapons around him. If the DL

   injuries would not an issue this would be closer to the top of the page, with an SEC

   dog vs. the ACC hard to pass up. WAKE FOREST 27-24.

   California over Washington State* by 13

   Ordinarily the first home game for a new coach brings a lot of optimism, but signs

   of anything tangible to build on were hard to come by in the dismal Cougar showing

   vs. Oklahoma State. Not a strength to be found on either side of the ball right

   now. CALIFORNIA 30-17.

   Western Michigan* over Northern Illinois by 3

   Huskies may be among the most improved teams in the nation this season, which

   means a lot of revenge opportunities in conference play. But the Broncos are also

   better than they showed at Nebraska, which limits some of the value this week.

   WESTERN MICHIGAN 27-24.

   South Florida over Central Florida* by 11

   George O’Leary’s bunch is laying claim to a major revenge motive from that

   hideous 64-12 burial that they suffered vs. the Bulls last year, but with so many

   new faces in the skill positions that aggressive defensive front is capable of the same

   kind of beat-down. SOUTH FLORIDA 27-16.

   Kansas* over Louisiana Tech by 21

   Jayhawks are not going to show the same urgency in this spread range that they did

   in last year’s ATS role, but at least they get genuinely forewarned for this opponent,

   after Tech stood toe-to-toe with physical Mississippi State. KANSAS 37-16.

   Memphis* over Rice by 6

   These two combined for 73 reports and 999 yards when neither defense could stop

   the other in a 3-point Memphis road win last year. In truth, the matchups have not

   changed, and the advantage of the venue is minimal. MEMPHIS 37-31.

   Utah* over U.N.L.V. by 22

   Instead of being in a letdown mode that win in Ann Arbor might actually create a

   spark behind the Utes for their home and conference opener, especially with the

   absurdity of having lost 27-0 to the Rebels on the road last year, when Brian

   Johnson was nowhere near full health. UTAH 34-12.

   Arizona* over Toledo by 15

   Unlike most other teams the Rockets did not get to play a tune-up last week, and

   that may show against an opponent that brings a sense of urgency (if Mike Stoops

   does not go bowling this year he will be someone’s defensive coordinator next

   autumn). ARIZONA 34-19.

   Arizona State* over Stanford by 13

   Stanford could not match the State speed in a 45-3 debacle last year, when the Sun

   Devils scored on an interception return, a 72-yard run and a 62-yard pass. And

   while the Cardinal is improved, speed is still an issue. ARIZONA STATE 34-21.

   Texas over U.T.E.P.* by 19

   Mike Price has been making a big deal about getting the rare chance to host “The

   University of Texas at Austin”. His quote. Probably not a savvy one, to motivate a

   Longhorn team that could have otherwise been flat. TEXAS 38-19.

   Iowa* over Florida International by 28

   As always, we must respect a coach that is under some pressure to when win he has

   the chance to deliver a knockout blow. Kirk Ferentz wears the gloves to throw that

   punch here. IOWA 41-13.

   Arkansas* over UL-Monroe by 16

   In theory, what we wrote about Kirk Ferentz in the previous game could apply to

   Bobby Petrino here, except that when you are trailing Estern Illinois 24-14 in front

   of your own fans in the fourth quarter, you may not have full control of the proceedings

   right now. ARKANSAS 33-17.

   Tulsa over North Texas* by 18

   David Johnson’s transition to running the Tulsa offense was a smooth one last

   week, and he might be facing an even weaker defense here. Nice way to break in.

   TULSA 42-24.

   L.S.U.* over Troy by 21

   Can not be sure if the Tiger preparation for this game will be interrupted by

   Gustav, but that would be the only distraction, with only North Texas on deck.

   L.S.U. 34-13.

   ****BEST BET

   Houston over *Pittsburgh by 7

   Don’t look at Houston anymore as some struggling expansion team. Gary

   Kubiak has the Texans headed in the right direction. Anything short of a

   winning record is a disappointment for the Texans now. Houston is a highly-

   improved squad that needs to prove it can win on the road. This is a

   matchup the Texans are really targeting. Oddsmakers haven’t caught up to

   just how improved the Texans are yet.The oddsmaker is giving Pittsburgh

   a lot of respect because the Steelers still have a mystique, especially when

   playing at home. But the Steelers aren’t close to being an elite team anymore.

   All of this makes the Texans a great value play.Texans QB Matt Schaub

   was sharp during preseason. He has a deep wide receiving group featuring

   Andre Johnson, one of the five best wideouts in the league. Johnson is

   healthy after missing seven games with a knee injury last season. The

   Texans went 6-3 in the games Johnson played in last season. Johnson is a

   huge difference-maker, but doesn’t get a lot of media attention because the

   Texans rarely are in the national spotlight.The Texans brought in offensive

   line guru Alex Gibbs so expect an improved running attack. Rookie Steve

   Slaton could be special. Houston’s players are more comfortable with

   Kubiak’s system now, this being their third year in it. Mario Williams gives

   the Texans a dangerous pass rusher.Kubiak has upgraded his secondary.The

   Steelers are going through a transition phase with a revamped offensive

   line. Losing Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca really hurts, both from a talent and

   leadership standpoint. This showed during preseason when the Steelers

   had trouble putting up touchdowns.Williams can make life miserable for

   Ben Roethlisberger, who isn’t very mobile. HOUSTON 24-17.

   ***BEST BET

   Carolina over *San Diego by 4

   It wouldn’t surprise if the Chargers maki it to the Super Bowl.Yet as good

   as the Chargers are they could be vulnerable in this matchup, caught taking

   Carolina too lightly at home. There’s a cluster injury problem for San

   Diego at linebacker, with inside linebacker Stephen Cooper suspended and

   star pass-rusher and top defensive player Shawne Merriman hobbling from

   a serious knee injury.The injury bug extends to the other side of the ball,

   too, with center Nick Hardwick probably out with a foot injury and star

   tight end Antonio Gates still bothered by last season’s lingering toe injury.

   Gates isn’t nearly the feared deep threat when he’s not up to full speed.

   Carolina won’t have its best wide receiver. Steve Smith is suspended. But

   the Panthers are a smash-mouth team first under John Fox, the best underdog

   coach in the NFL.The Panthers have covered 66 percent of the time

   when taking points under Fox. Carolina has two good running backs,

   DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart, plus Jake Delhomme is

   back under center after missing most of last season due to an elbow injury.

   The Panthers are a much better team when Delhomme is taking snaps. He

   had thrown eight touchdown passes with only one interception last year

   before suffering his season-ending injury during Week 3. Carolina is 22-5

   ATS as an underdog when Delhomme is its quarterback. Pro Bowl defensive

   end Julius Peppers had an off-year in 2007. He’s in a contract year and

   had a huge preseason.Peppers could be a real thorn in the side of Chargers

   QB Philip Rivers, who had off-season knee surgery.The combination of Fox

   in an underdog role, Delhomme and Peppers looking like the Peppers of

   pre-2007 makes Carolina a real live ‘dog. CAROLINA 23-19.

   **PREFERRED

   *CLOSE CALLS

   *New England over Kansas City by 4

   Early in the season, the Patriots are going to have widely inflated lines such

   as this.Truth be told, New England isn’t strong enough right now to cover

   such a huge number.The Patriots looked terrible during preseason. Sure it

   was preseason, who cares? But Tom Brady still may not be 100 percent.He

   could be a little gimpy and rusty. Kansas City’s fiery defensive coordinator,

   Gunther Cunningham, will have his defense fired-up. New England’s secondary

   is mediocre and its linebackers old in the tooth.We’re not fans of

   Brodie Croyle or Herm Edwards. In this matchup, though, Edwards’ conservative

   ways should come in handy for the Chiefs.They’re going to run Larry

   Johnson a lot, eating up clock.That’s a key when taking this many points.

   The Chiefs’ offensive line surprisingly looked solid during preseason.

   Johnson, healthy from a foot injury,was running well looking like his 2005

   and 2006 form when he rushed for a combined 3,539 yards during those

   two seasons. Dwayne Bowe and Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez are

   reliable targets for Croyle.The Patriots no longer have a shutdown cornerback

   with Asante Samuel gone. The Patriots’ next two games are against

   division opponents.They may not be taking his matchup as serious as they

   need to. NEW ENGLAND 24-20.

   *Philadelphia over St. Louis by 16

   No NFC team can match the Eagles’ quarterback-tailback firepower of

   Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. It’s too much of a powerful combination

   for a leaky Rams defense that surrendered the second-most points

   in franchise history last year.The Eagles are primed to make a run at an NFC

   title with an upgraded pass rush, strong secondary and improved special

   teams.The Rams were hit hard last year by injuries to their offensive line

   finishing with 18 different combinations.The Rams are banged-up again in

   the trenches.Their first-string offense struggled during preseason. QB Marc

   Bulger still looked skittish after a career-low 70.3 passer rating last year

   when he was under constant pressure. Star running back Steven Jackson is

   rusty after a lengthy holdout.The Rams don’t have the great receiving corps

   anymore either.Torry Holt is another year older and dealing with a chronic

   knee problem. He’ll likely be matched up against shutdown cornerback

   Asante Samuel.The Eagles have plenty of motivation after a disappointing

   8-8 2007 season.The only two times the Eagles missed on the playoffs during

   the Andy Reid era they went 12-6 and 11-7 the following seasons. Look

   for the Eagles to bounce back strong again this year. PHILADELPHIA 30-14.

   *New York Giants over Washington by 7 (Thursday)

   The Giants may be in for a Super Bowl hangover after a banquet-filled offseason

   and contract squabbles. But they still should handle Washington at

   Giants Stadium, where they have beaten and covered against the Redskins

   three of the past four years outscoring them, 85-39. Redskins first-year

   coach Jim Zorn, like former Redskins novice coach Steve Spurrier, is going

   to find out the hard way that preseason is much different than regular season.

   Redskins QB Jason Campbell is learning a new offense.The Giants have

   the pass rushers to hinder that development. NY GIANTS 23-16.

   Cincinnati over *Baltimore by 3

   The Bengals defeated the Ravens, 27-20, at home in their opener last year.

   That turned out to be the Bengals’ season highlight. Baltimore, though,

   totally imploded winning just five games on the season, while going 3-13

   ATS.The Bengals at least have a potentially explosive offense spearheaded

   by elite quarterback Carson Palmer.The Ravens have no passing threat and

   their offensive is a jumbled mess. In addition, the Ravens may be without

   star safety Ed Reed (shoulder) and starting tailback Willis McGahee (knee).

   Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals have learned to beat Baltimore winning

   six of the past seven. CINCINNATI 20-17.

   New York Jets over *Miami by 1

   Who could have imagined a starting quarterback matchup of Brett Favre

   versus Chad Pennington. The Dolphins are going with a power-running

   attack. The Jets have shored up their run defense bringing in nose tackle

   Kris ******* to anchor their 3-4. It’s not going to be a quick turnaround for

   the Dolphins.They’ve lost 18 of their last 19 games and are 3-15 ATS in their

   previous 18 division games.The Jets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings at

   Miami, including 7-3 SU.New York can’t afford to slip because its next two

   games are against New England and San Diego. NY JETS 17-16.

   Jacksonville over *Tennessee by 3

   There’s not going to be anything fancy in this matchup of two power

   ground-oriented clubs.The Titans gashed the Jaguars for 458 yards rushing

   in two games last season.The Jaguars figure to load up their defensive line,

   daring erratic Vince Young to beat them through the air.The Titans have a

   lot of confidence in their offensive line, but their passing game leaves much

   to be desired. Rookie running back Chris Johnson has game-breaking

   potential for Tennessee.A slight nod, though, to the Jaguars.They have the

   better quarterback and a strong defense. Jacksonville has covered in eight

   of their past nine season-openers. JACKSONVILLE 20-17.

   NFL (CONTINUED)

   Detroit over *Atlanta by 3

   The Lions have won just eight of their last 56 road contests. However, the

   rebuilding Falcons under first-year coach Mike Smith could be the worst

   team in the NFC with inexperience at quarterback, a revised offensive line

   and a defense that ranked fourth-from-the-bottom last year in total yards.

   Unlike last season, the Lions plan on running the ball a lot with the switch

   of offensive coordinators from pass-crazy Mike Martz to conservative Jim

   Colletto. The Lions are sure to poke and probe Atlanta’s 26th-rated run

   defense. Detroit has covered in its last five opening games.DETROIT 16-13.

   Seattle over *Buffalo by 1

   This isn’t going to be easy for Seattle traveling three time zones with an

   early start time. Buffalo is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games. But how much faith

   do you really have in the Bills? Trent Edwards has yet to prove anything and

   the Bills’ offensive line has been plagued by injuries and a holdout by left

   tackle Jason Peters. The Seahawks are without their most reliable wide

   receiver, Bobby Engram, and could be missing their most talented wideout,

   Deion Branch. However, the Seahawks’ have a top-notch defense that held

   foes to 18.2 points, sixth-lowest last season. SEATTLE 17-16.

   *New Orleans over Tampa Bay by 6

   Joey Galloway has been a monster vs. the Saints, scoring 10 TDs versus

   them in seven games, including catching 11 passes for 291 yards and two

   touchdowns last season.The Saints’ secondary looks vulnerable again this

   season, but their pass rush and linebacking should be improved. The

   Buccaneers have a banged up offensive line and their best running back,

   Cadillac Williams, is out for at least the first six games.Tampa Bay has lost

   in 13 of its past 17 away contests. Drew Brees is primed for a big year for

   the Saints with the addition of tight end Jeremy Shockey and expected

   improvement of wideout Robert Meachem. NEW ORLEANS 26-20.

   Dallas over *Cleveland by 2

   The Browns should be pumped hosting Dallas for the first time in

   Cleveland since 1991. Cleveland, though, is 1-8 in season-openers. The

   Cowboys probably have too many weapons for the Browns to contain. It

   remains to be seen, if perhaps the Cowboys should have done more homework

   during training camp instead of mugging for the cameras in the HBO

   series “Hard Knocks.”Adam Jones is a talent. It’s wrong to call him a shutdown

   corner, though. He’s going through an adjustment period. Braylon

   Edwards could take advantage unless the Cowboys find the pass rush they

   lacked during preseason. DALLAS 32-30.

   Arizona over *San Francisco by 1

   The Cardinals return all of their offensive starters, and they’ve won and

   covered in four of their past five visits to San Francisco.However, it’s tough

   to lay points on the road with Arizona.The Cardinals have dropped seven

   of their past nine road games. They had a quarterback controversy

   between Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart and morale problems with an

   unhappy Anquan Boldin. San Francisco had Arizona’s number last year, beating

   the Cardinals twice. The 49ers are in an offensive transition, learning

   Mike Martz’s complicated passing style.ARIZONA 21-20.

   *Indianapolis over Chicago by 11

   Assuming Peyton Manning is fully recovered, the Colts should be able to

   celebrate their new stadium in style. The Bears are breaking in new skill

   position starters and their banged-up offensive line also is in a state of transition.

   Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Tommie Harris give the Bears a

   strong defensive presence, but the Colts simply have too many weapons

   even with center Jeff Saturday out and Manning rusty. Chicago’s defense

   isn’t strong enough anymore to carry such a weak offense. Indianapolis has

   covered in 10 of its past 14 home contests. INDIANAPOLIS 20-9.

   Minnesota over *Green Bay by 1 (Monday)

   There’s a ton of pressure on Aaron Rodgers performing at home on the

   national stage against the league’s top run-defense. Can he deliver if the

   Packers don’t produce a decent ground attack? Star Vikings defensive end

   Jared Allen may have something to say about that.The Vikings consider the

   Packers their chief rival.They’ve covered in seven of their last eight visits

   to Green Bay. The Packers are thin at defensive tackle and must contend

   with NFC rushing-leading Adrian Peterson. It probably comes down to

   which quarterback, Rodgers or Tarvaris Jackson, makes the least mistakes.

   MINNESOTA 20-19.

   Denver over *Oakland by 4 (Monday)

   Mike Shanahan likes to believe he’s fortified his defensive line.We’ll find

   out early if that’s the case, because the Raiders are going to throw a heavy

   dose of running backs Justin Fargas and rookie Darren McFadden at

   Denver.The Broncos have knocked off the Raiders in eight of the last 10

   meetings. The Raiders are just 8-22 ATS at home, a wretched 2-15 ATS in

   their last 17 home AFC West contests. So much for any Oakland “Black

   Hole” home intimidation.The Broncos, though, have been terrible favorites

   covering just 25% during the past 20 times they’ve laid points. Jay Cutler is

   without his top receiver, suspended Brandon Marshall. DENVER 21-17.

   OVER/UNDER

   ** UNDER: Detroit at Atlanta – The Lions are switching to a

   power ground attack, while the Falcons lack a strong passing attack to light

   up the scoreboard.

   OVER: Dallas at Cleveland – The Browns have an aerial attack that can

   hurt Dallas’ vulnerable secondary, but lack the defense to contain Tony

   Romo,Terrell Owens and Marion Barber.

   UNDER: Chicago at Indianapolis – The Bears’ reshuffled offensive

   line isn’t ready for the Colts’ pass rush pressure, while Peyton Manning may

   be rusty and center Jeff Saturday is out.

   HISTORICAL TRENDS

   Washington at New York Giants – The Giants are 3-1 SU and ATS the past

   four times at home against Washington.The Giants and Redskins split last

   season, with the Giants winning 24-17 on the road and losing 22-10 at

   home.

   Cincinnati at Baltimore – The Ravens are 8-3 SU and ATS at home versus

   the Bengals. Cincinnati swept Baltimore last year, winning 27-20 at home

   and 21-17 on the road.

   New York Jets at Miami – The Jets are 7-3 SU, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 at

   Miami.The Jets beat the Dolphins 31-28 at home and 40-13 on the road last

   year.

   Kansas City at New England – The Chiefs defeated the Patriots, 26-16, at

   home when they last met in 2005.

   Houston at Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh beat Houston, 27-7, at Houston when

   the teams last played in 2005.

   Jacksonville at Tennessee – The teams split last season.Tennessee won

   13-10 on the road and lost 28-13 at home.

   Detroit at Atlanta – The Lions knocked off the Falcons, 30-14, at home

   when they last played in 2006.

   Seattle at Buffalo – Buffalo downed Seattle, 38-9, at Seattle when they last

   met in 2004.

   Tampa Bay at New Orleans – The Buccaneers swept the Saints last season,

   winning 31-14 at home and 27-23 at New Orleans.

   St. Louis at Philadelphia – The Eagles nipped the Rams, 17-16, on the

   road when they last met in 2005.

   Dallas at Cleveland –The Cowboys beat the Browns,19-12,at home when

   they last faced one another in 2004.

   Carolina at San Diego – The Chargers defeated the Panthers, 17-6, at

   Carolina in their previous meeting in 2004.

   Arizona at San Francisco – The Cardinals are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last

   five games at San Francisco.The 49ers swept the Cardinals last season, winning 20-17 at home and 37-31 on the road.The ‘over’ is 7-2 during the past nine games in the series.

   Chicago at Indianapolis – The Colts beat the Bears, 29-17, in the Super

   Bowl two years ago when they last met.

   Minnesota at Green Bay – The Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight at

   Lambeau Field.The Packers beat the Vikings 23-16 on the road and 34-0 at

   home last season.

   Denver at Oakland – The Broncos are 8-2 SU versus the Raiders in their

   past 10 meetings.The teams split last year. Denver won 23-20 in overtime

   at home, while the Raiders won 34-20 in Oakland.

   

   posted by phantom

   Sept. 3 2008 9:34pm
10. 0 likes

    Dr. Bob

    Analysis

    NY GIANTS (-4.0) 21 Washington 17

    04:00 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Sep-04 - Stats Matchup

    Washington rallied down the stretch last season to win their final 4 regular season games with backup quarterback Todd Collins in charge of the attack. Collins struggled in the playoff loss to Seattle, Joe Gibbs retired again and the Redskins have a new coach in Jim Zorn. Zorn brings with him a West Coast style offense that will probably suit quarterback Jason Campbell, who completed 70% of his passes as a senior at Auburn in a similar system. The West Coast offense requires accuracy and Campbell has that quality. Campbell only averaged 5.8 yards per pass play last season (excluding a 54 yard hail mary pass that was completed – and random as far as I’m concerned), but he faced a teams that would allow only 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Campbell, while average on a yards per pass play basis, only threw 11 interceptions and he is more likely to limit his mistakes with more short passes in the playbook. It’s tough to say how Campbell will perform with a new offense to run, but I’ll call for numbers similar to last season. The rushing attack was hurt last season by two early season injuries to linemen RT Jon Jansen in week 1 and to RG Randy Thomas the very next week. With those two back healthy I expect Clinton Portis (1262 yards at only 3.9 ypr) and Ladell Betts (335 yards at just 3.6 ypr) to rebound with much better numbers this season. Washington was an average offensive team last season (although worse than average until Collins’ late season heroics) and the Redskins should be about average offensively this season – although they could struggle early on with the new offense (they’ve been inconsistent in the preseason).

    Washington’s defense was among the best in the league in the first half of 2007, allowing just 4.7 yards per play through week 8 against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Top cornerback Carlos Rogers was lost to injury and a couple of weeks later All-Pro free safety Sean Taylor was murdered. The Redskins started to get burned deep without Rogers and Taylor, but things turned back around the final 4 games when gifted young strong safety LaRon Landry played mostly as the last line of defense at free safety, which is the position he’ll play this season. Rogers has returned from his knee injury and has reportedly looked strong in camp, so I expect the Redskins’ pass defense to be pretty strong with Rogers, Shawn Springs (coming off another very good season), and Landry all being All-Pro caliber players. The Redskins defended the run well all season, yielding just 3.9 ypr to teams that would combine to average 4.3 ypr against an average team.

    Washington grades out as a better than average team, but a lot of that depends on how quickly the players get comfortable with the new schemes on both sides of the ball.

    The Giants were the most improbable Super Bowl champs ever and their 4 game post-season run could lead to them being an overrated team this season. Eli Manning is not suddenly a poised, mistake free quarterback just because he had just 1 interception in 4 playoff games. Just before his good performance in week 17 against the Patriots Manning was playing the worst football of his career, which is pretty bad given how bad his career was up to that point. Manning threw 20 interceptions in 16 regular season games and finished the season averaging 5.8 yards per pass play (including the playoff games) against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. While Manning has a below average quarterback in every season of his career thus far I actually think he’ll be better than average this season in both yppp and in interception percentage, as last year’ magical run is likely to give him more confidence and give his teammates more confidence in him. New York already has a great rushing attack that averaged 4.5 ypr last season (against teams that would allow 4.0 ypr to an average team) and they should be good running the ball again this season.

    New York struggled defensively in a 35-45 opening day loss at Dallas, but star DE Michael Strahan and CB Sam Madison didn’t start in that game and the Giants’ defense was much better starting in week 2 with those two players in the lineup. The Giants rated at 0.7 yards per play better than average defensively from week 2 through the Super Bowl, allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team. The Giants aren’t likely to be as strong this season with Michael Strahan retired and star DE Osi Umenyiora out for the season due to a recent knee injury. Those two ends combined for 21 sacks and 28 quarterback hurries last season and they’ll be impossible to replace. New York should still be better than average rushing the passer, but they won’t come close to the 3.1 sacks per game that they average in 2007. Less pressure on the quarterback from the defensive line will make it tougher for mediocre secondary to cover opposing receivers and the Giants could go from very good against the pass to average this season. The run defense should remain good with LB Antonio Pierce roaming the middle of the field (although he’s questionable for this game).

    The Giants are probably going to be better on offense and not as good on defense this season, and they are certainly not that much better than an average team overall. The Giants look like they’ll be fighting for a wild card spot in the playoffs once again in what should be an 8-8 or 9-7 season.

    My ratings favor New York by 3 ½ points with a total of 40 ½ points, which is pretty close to the line, but the Giants apply to a 41-21 game 1 angle.

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 4 2008 3:08pm
11. 0 likes

    Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (1st of NFL '08 / won 1st CFB Insider 52-7!)-Thursday

    My Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 7:00 ET. The Redskins overcame the tragic death of Sean Taylor by winning their final four games of the regular season, sneaking intro the postseason at 9-7 (did lose at Seattle in the wild card round, 35-14). Starting QB Jason Campbell was lost with a dislocated kneecap in the first game of that four-game season-ending run but Todd Collins stepped in and played well, especially in the team's final two regular season games. Of course, everyone remembers New York's incredible postseason run, winning three straight road games in the NFC playoffs before upsetting the undefeated Patriots 17-14 in the Super Bowl. Much has changed for the Giants on the defensive side of the ball since last February. Five starters from Super Bowl XLII will not be in uniform on Thursday night. DE Michael Strahan retired, LBs Kawika Mitchell (Bills) and Reggie Torbor (Dolphins) left as free agents, FS Gibril Wilson also left as a FA (Raiders) and DE Osi Umenyiora is out for season after getting hurt in a preseason game with the Jets (knee). However, 10 starters return on offense, as only TE Shockey (traded to the Saints) is missing and of course, he sat out LY's playoff run with an injury. Eli "came of age" in LY's postseason and most expect his improvement to continue. As for the Redskins, QB Campbell is on his third offensive coordinator as he begins just his fourth NFL season, as well as his seventh offensive system in eight seasons, dating back to his time at Auburn. Also, there is first-time head coach Jim Zorn, who has brought his version of the West Coast offense to the nation's capital. Campbell has hardly looked comfortable in that offense, as in his last three preseason games he completed just 11-of-24 passes (45.8 percent) for 70 yards (that's a pathetic 2.92 YPA!) without a TD and one INT. LY's two starting WRs Moss and Randle-El both underachieved plus Zorn has been very critical of the team's two rookie WRs (Thomas and Kelly), saying neither would contribute much during the early part of the season. TE Chris Cooley (66 receptions, 8 TD) is probably the team's best receiver. Eli was terrific in the 2007 postseason, throwing six TDs with just one INT, while compiling a 95.7 QB rating (20 points better than his regular season mark). His supporting cast remains largely the same with Plaxico Burress (70 receptions, 12 TDs) and Amani Toomer (59 receptions, 3 TD) heading up a deep receiving corps, while Brandon Jacobs (1,009 rushing yards) and Derrick Ward (602 rushing yards) man the running game. As for the Giants' D, don't sell it short. I expect the Redskins to struggle this year, as Zorn could be in "over his head." Meanwhile, like him or not, Coughlin is a proven winner. Defending Super Bowl champs are on a 6-0-1 ATS run when opening the following season with a prime time game and I see the Giants easily extending that run here. Las Vegas Insider on the NY Giants.

    Good Luck...Larry

    Larry Ness' 20* Non-Conference GOY (1st GOY play TY / 7-1 start to CFB '08)-Sat

    My 20* play is on Penn State at 3:30 ET. Oregon State opened the '08 season with a conference road game at Stanford, losing 36-28. The Beavers had a chance late but fumbled the ball away at the Stanford goal line, with just under 50 seconds remaining. QB Lyle Moevao impressed with 404 yards passing and three TDs but he also threw two INTs (one returned for a TD) and also botched a swing pass which resulted in a Cardinal safety. WR Sammie Stroughter missed of most of LY with an injury but looked great in his first game of '08, with 12 catches for 157 yards and two TDs. Fellow WR Shane Morales, who had just 16 catches in '07, almost matched that total in his first game of '08, with 13 receptions for 151 yards. However, OSU's running game, which last year featured Yvenson Bernard (1,214 yards / 13 TDs), gained just 86 yards on 28 carries. Things hardly get easier for OSU this week, as the Beavers must travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. By the way, it should be noted that Oregon State is the only BCS school which is being asked to open the '08 season with back-to-back road games. Penn State opened its '08 season with a 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina. While it's impossible to make too much of that win, it should be noted that the 66 points were the most scored in an opener by a Penn State team since 1926! I was NEVER a fan of QB Anthony Morelli and senior QB Daryll Clark was a solid 11-of-14 with 146 yards (one TD / no INTs) in the team's opener. He's made even better by a trio of WRs in Butler, Norwood and Williams, who are now all seniors. PSU rushed 43 times for 334 yards in the easy win, as four players ran for 60 yards or more, led by redshirt freshman Stephon Green's 89 yards with two TDs. The Penn State defense owns a veteran DL and 2ndy and should have little trouble with the OSU running game (sans Bernard) and will be fore-warned about Moevao, after his 404-yard effort vs Stanford. OSU's defense allowed Stanford only 301 total yards but 210 of those came on the ground. I guess that should come as no surprise, as while OSU led the nation in rushing yards allowed in '07 (71 YPG / 2.1 YPC), the team returns just THREE defensive starters in '08, including NONE of the team's front-seven! Let's note that OSU traveled to Cincy last year and lost 34-3, traveled to Boise St in '06 and lost 42-14 and visited Louisville in '05, losing 63-27. That's three non-conference road losses by an average margin of 31.7 PPG. That margin sounds about right to me here, as well. Non-Conference GOY 20* Penn State.

    Good Luck...Larry

    Larry Ness' SEC Game of the Month (7-1 start to CFB '08 / 3-0 with GOM plays)-Thursday

    My SEC Game of the Month is on South Carolina at 8:30 ET. When these two schools met last October 20 in Columbia, South Carolina, the Gamecocks were 6-1 and ranked No. 6 in the AP poll. South Carolina took a seven-game series winning streak into that game and Steve Spurrier had NEVER lost to the 'Dores in 14 previous meetings (most as Florida's head coach). However, the 'Dores, 13 1/2-point underdogs, won 17-6.. They held South Carolina to 282 total yards and just 26 rushing yards as the team set a school record with seven sacks. The defeat was the first of five consecutive losses for the Gamecocks, who finished the '07 season just 6-6 As for Vandy, the 'Dores won the following week vs Miami-Ohio to move to 5-3, just one win away from being bowl-eligible. That's no small deal, as Vandy hasn't been to a bowl game since 1982. However, similar to South Carolina, Vanderbilt lost its final four games (finished 5-7), with the defense allowing an average of 33 PPG. Both teams won last Thursday, South Carolina 'pitching a shutout' at home to NC State (34-0) and Vandy winning at Miami-Ohio, 34-13. South Carolina's defense was great last week, holding NC State to just 138 total yards and its QBs to five completions in 20 attempts for 49 yards with two INTs. The Gamecocks really struggled for the first three quarters offensively, as QB Tommy Beecher was awful, completing 12-of 22 passes for just 106 yards, while throwing FOUR interceptions. Spurrier replaced him with former starter Chris Smelley and he led three TD drives in the fourth quarter, completing 5-of-5 passes for 92 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Smelley has been named the team's starter this week and look for the team's best WR, Kenny McKinley (77 catches / 9 TDs) to contribute more than his six catches for only 37 yards against the Wolfpack. The South Carolina ground game struggled a year ago averaging just 3.6 YPC but the Gamecocks have four starting OL back in '08 for TB Mike Davis, who gained 101 yards last week on just 14 carries. Vandy QB Nickson had a career-high 166 yards rushing last week and two rushing TDs but that came against a Miami-Ohio defense which is nowhere near as athletic as South Carolina's. Note that Vandy only out-gained Mia-O by 20 yards last week and that in LY's upset of the Gamecocks, Vandy only gained 269 yards. South Carolina does have Georgia up next week but the memory of last year's loss will be all the motivation Spurrier's team needs here to win and win handily. The road team has covered SEVEN of the eight meetings between these schools this decade and that form follows Thursday night. SEC Game of the Month 15* South Carolina.

    Good Luck...Larry

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 4 2008 6:07pm
12. 0 likes

    ace-ace

    SD-6 1ST HALF...........................$2000.00 -105

    I think that it’s one of the strongest plays on the board. I also think that there is more value on this game in the first half than there is opening ourselves up to a back door cover on the large number. The Panthers have to travel cross-country without their best player, suspended wideout Steve Smith, and take on a team that many have destined for the Super Bowl. The Chargers covered all six of their non-divisional home games last year, winning all six by double-digit margins. They got off to fast starts in those games and we expect the same thing this weekend. The Chargers are 44-20-2 ATS overall and have been a dominating home team. I think they will overwhelm the visiting Panthers, who are still adjusting to the loss of their best player.

    DET-3.......................................$2500.00 -110

    Matt Ryan is making his NFL debut at home against the visiting Lions and I expect him to make some typical rookie mistakes. The Falcons are firmly entrenched in a rebuilding mode. And while they will play hard they don’t have the overall talent to win many games this year. The main area where I expect Detroit to take advantage is against the weak Atlanta secondary. Detroit likes to throw the ball all over the field and I think they will have an easier time moving the ball than Atlanta will against an improving Detroit defense. Atlanta is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games.

    CIN-1.5.....................................$2000.00 -110

    The Ravens have not looked good at all this preseason and now they are breaking in a new quarterback and a new head coach. Baltimore is just 1-5 ATS in its last six divisional games and 1-5 in its last six games in Week 1. This defense is not what it once was, and with an offense that is going to be even worse than what they’ve had to deal with over the last few years that’s a recipe for disaster.

    IND-6.5 1ST HALF.........................$800.00 -105

    Just as with our play on San Diego, I think there is simply more value on the first half of this game than with the large numbers. The Chicago defense is not as strong as it has been and I am betting that Peyton Manning shakes off the rust early. Indy is facing a soft Cover-2, the same defense that they play, so nothing the Bears will do on D will be anything they aren’t used to. Kyle Orton is also an unproven quarterback making a start in the RCA Dome and I expect a slow start from a weak Chicago offense. We just need the Colts to be by a touchdown for this one to cash and I think they will be ahead much more than that at the break.

    DAL-5.5................................ .....$600.00 -105

    The Browns are a little banged up and I think the Cowboys are going to take advantage of that weak Cleveland secondary. Derek Anderson has not fully gotten over his concussion and hasn’t been able to find a rhythm with his receivers since he’s been out of action for several weeks. The Cowboys have covered five straight spreads in Week 1 and I think that they are going to be too talented for Cleveland in this one.

    NYJ UNDER 36.............................$300.00 -103

    When I look at these two teams I see two improved defenses and two new quarterbacks. On top of that this is going to be an intense rivalry game because it’s not only between two divisional foes, but between an ex-quarterback (Chad Pennington) that was dumped by his former team. The Dolphins have bought into the “Parcells Way” and that means playing good defense and running the ball. On top of that, Pennington knows the entire Jets playbook inside and out – even better than Brett Favre - and will have the Fins prepared for everything New York wants to do.

    GB UNDER 38..............................$500.00 -105

    Neither of the quarterbacks on either side is anything to write home about so I see the defenses dictating the tempo in this one. Green Bay was an exceptional ‘over’ team last year and has gone ‘over’ in eight straight NFC games. But streaks like that generally don’t carry over into the following year. Also, the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these two teams. Also, the ‘under’ is 15-6-1 in Minnesota’s last 22 games on grass.

    SEA +1.......................................$300.00 -106

    The Seahawks offense will be fine with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm and I think that they are the better team in this situation. The Bills have been a poor team in the first-half of the year over the last few seasons, and they have lost some heart breakers in their home openers over the last few years. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in this series and the Seahawks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 September games.

    NYG-4.5......................................$300.00-106

    Defending Super Bowl champions are 6-0-1 ATS in their first game of the season over the last seven years and I expect that trend to continue. The Redskins are still struggling to learn new systems on both sides of the ball and they did not look good at all over their last three preseason games. On top of that, they will likely be without Jason Taylor. The favorite in this rivalry series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the Giants are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 divisional games.

    I stand on tho play.....AA

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 4 2008 7:27pm
13. 0 likes

    Default

    BP OF Ballinpicks Friday CFB 3*

    Friday Night we have 2 Offensively Minded schools going at it with Navy visiting Ball St! If you have been with me in the past years, you know that Navy has always been one of my main horses to ride! 2 Years ago, I think we rode them week in and week out! Times change though. I am going with Ball St in this one here! Both teams have good scoring offenses here, heck Navy has the best rushing offense in the game yr in and yr out! Why? Because frankly thats all they do! But they are damn good at it! What really kills Navy though is their lack of skill on Defense, especially in the secondary. That is where I expect Ball St to succeed with ease Friday Night! NAvy has their 2nd string QB running the offense as of now, since K-Ehnada is injured. Jarros Bryant ran the Navy Offense against no sort of run defense in his first game, but will find it much more difficult in this matchup. Ball St held NorthEastern to under 100 yards rushing last week, but then again who is Northeastern. Navy will get their yards on the ground, but their problems will come in crucial 3rd downs and so forth, while their Defense will not be a great help against the Ball St Offensive assault. This one will have lots of scoring, and should be a fun game from our side, but I do feel Ball St has more to offer in this game, and will cover the TD here!

    BP Friday 3*: Ball St Cardinals -7

    

    posted by jimmyz623

    Sept. 5 2008 5:23pm
14. 0 likes

    CAUTION

    *** THIS WAS RELEASED YESTERDAY ***

    ** SINCE THEN THERE HAVE BEEN MANY PENN ST PLAYERS SUSPENDED !!!!

    Penn State players Maurice Evans, Abe Koroma and Andrew Quarless will miss Saturday's game against Oregon State after police found marijuana in their apartment earlier this week, Penn State coach Joe Paterno said on his radio show Thursday night.

    University police seized marijuana from an apartment shared by Evans, Koroma, Quarless and cornerback A.J. Wallace, who Paterno said was not involved in the incident and will be allowed to play Saturday against the Beavers.

    No charges have been filed and the investigation is ongoing, Lt. Bill Moerschbacher of the Penn State university police wrote in an e-mail to ESPN.com.

    Evans, a first-team All-Big Ten selection, and Koroma are starters at defensive end and defensive tackle, respectively.

    Quarless, a reserve tight end, was suspended for spring practice following a DUI arrest on March 2. He was cited for DUI, failing to stop at a red light and buying alcohol as a minor. The judge sentenced him to a 15-month rehabilitation program, according to the court records.

    "They're all three good football players, they're not bad kids," Paterno said. "But you pay for it when you do dumb things. It's something that they'll be living with. ... I feel sorry for them and I wish I could do something besides saying, 'You're going to sit out this week, 'til I get all the information.' Because I don't have it all."

    Larry Ness' 20* Non-Conference GOY (1st GOY play TY / 7-1 start to CFB '08)-Sat

    My 20* play is on Penn State at 3:30 ET. Oregon State opened the '08 season with a conference road game at Stanford, losing 36-28. The Beavers had a chance late but fumbled the ball away at the Stanford goal line, with just under 50 seconds remaining. QB Lyle Moevao impressed with 404 yards passing and three TDs but he also threw two INTs (one returned for a TD) and also botched a swing pass which resulted in a Cardinal safety. WR Sammie Stroughter missed of most of LY with an injury but looked great in his first game of '08, with 12 catches for 157 yards and two TDs. Fellow WR Shane Morales, who had just 16 catches in '07, almost matched that total in his first game of '08, with 13 receptions for 151 yards. However, OSU's running game, which last year featured Yvenson Bernard (1,214 yards / 13 TDs), gained just 86 yards on 28 carries. Things hardly get easier for OSU this week, as the Beavers must travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. By the way, it should be noted that Oregon State is the only BCS school which is being asked to open the '08 season with back-to-back road games. Penn State opened its '08 season with a 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina. While it's impossible to make too much of that win, it should be noted that the 66 points were the most scored in an opener by a Penn State team since 1926! I was NEVER a fan of QB Anthony Morelli and senior QB Daryll Clark was a solid 11-of-14 with 146 yards (one TD / no INTs) in the team's opener. He's made even better by a trio of WRs in Butler, Norwood and Williams, who are now all seniors. PSU rushed 43 times for 334 yards in the easy win, as four players ran for 60 yards or more, led by redshirt freshman Stephon Green's 89 yards with two TDs. The Penn State defense owns a veteran DL and 2ndy and should have little trouble with the OSU running game (sans Bernard) and will be fore-warned about Moevao, after his 404-yard effort vs Stanford. OSU's defense allowed Stanford only 301 total yards but 210 of those came on the ground. I guess that should come as no surprise, as while OSU led the nation in rushing yards allowed in '07 (71 YPG / 2.1 YPC), the team returns just THREE defensive starters in '08, including NONE of the team's front-seven! Let's note that OSU traveled to Cincy last year and lost 34-3, traveled to Boise St in '06 and lost 42-14 and visited Louisville in '05, losing 63-27. That's three non-conference road losses by an average margin of 31.7 PPG. That margin sounds about right to me here, as well. Non-Conference GOY 20* Penn State.

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 5 2008 9:14pm
15. 0 likes

    The following are newsletter plays

    Kevin O’Neill / The Max

    Erik Scheponik NCAA (0-1, 0%)

    Louisiana Monroe (+12) @Arkansas

    Dave Fobare NCAA (1-0, 100%)

    Middle Tennessee (+13½) over Maryland

    Kevin O’Neill NCAA (1-2, 33.3%)

    Temple (+7) over Connecticut

    Mississippi (+8) over @Wake Forest

    Georgia (-23½) over Central Michigan

    Matty Baiungo NCAA (1-1, 50%)

    Auburn (-18) over Southern Miss

    HQ Report

    NCAA HQ Report 5 (1-0, 100%)

    5*BOWLING GREEN over MINNESOTA by 14

    NCAA HQ Underdog Play (1-0, 100%)

    Louisiana Monroe (+12) over Arkansas

    NCAA HQ Total Recall (0-1, 0%)

    Houston versus Oklahoma St PLAY OVER

    NCAA HQ ATS (0-1, 0%)

    Arizona St (-13) over Stanford

    THE SPORTS MEMO

    COLLEGE FOOTBALL

    ** BEST BETS***:

    ED CASH

    MIAMI (OH) +14.5 AT MICHIGAN

    Recommendation: Miami

    I went against the Wolverines last week with Utah +3.5 and have to take the points again this week with the Miami RedHawks. Michigan lost to Utah by a 25-23 score, but they were lucky to be that close. After getting destroyed in the first half by the Utah offense, Michigan turned it up a notch on defense in the second half and forced some turnovers to get back into the game. The bottom line, however, was that their offense was terrible with both young quarterbacks in the game. Michigan was only able to run for 43 yards on 22 carries in the game while throwing for 160. They will likely win this game because of their defense, but Miami-Ohio should never be out of it. Miami dropped their opener at home to Vanderbilt, 34-13, but they were far from being dominated on the line of scrimmage. Turnovers and poor special teams play killed them against the Commodores, something that should be addressed this week in practice. Michigan’s offense should improve a little bit this week, but not enough to pass up taking two touchdowns with Miami-Ohio. Another outright Michigan loss would not surprise me.

    FAIRWAY JAY

    EAST CAROLINA +9 AT WEST VIRGINIA

    Recommendation: East Carolina

    I was impressed with East Carolina as they opened the season with a hard-fought and deserved victory over No. 17 Virginia Tech on a neutral field. Now returning home, the Pirates are primed to pull off another upset. Senior quarterback Patrick Pinkney was 19-for-23 for 211 yards last week, and should have success against the Mountaineers average secondary. Meanwhile, West Virginia is an overrated team that beat an inferior Villanova team 48-21 last week in one of the opening week’s misleading final scores. The strength of the West Virginia defense that was so instrumental to their success a year ago is no longer in place. The Mountaineers

    defensive front lost two outstanding linemen from a season ago and a weak Villanova offense outgained the West Virginia power spread option that featured more passing by QB Pat White. Villanova piled up 400 total yards, 28 first downs and ran 87 offensive plays. Some critical mistakes in the red zone proved costly, and East Carolina’s strength along the defensive line and stronger secondary combined with a balanced offensive attack will make for a real tug-o-war. West Virginia’s BCS title hopes could end early, as this ‘Dog looks ready to bite hard again.

    TIM TRUSHEL

    EAST CAROLINA +9 AT WEST VIRGINIA

    Recommendation: East Carolina

    Even off a great upset against Virginia Tech, there is some resistance in the betting marketplace with East Carolina this week. When the summer previews came out in the middle of the summer I knew for certain that East Carolina would be in position to win one if not both of its opening two games. This is a very good team and a program on the rise. Skip Holtz has done a tremendous job and has exceeded expectations at every stop. Here in building this program he has gotten so much more than has been projected. Over the past four seasons, the Pirates are an incredible 27-11 against the spread. The key to their success this week and in moving forward this season will be improved play on the defensive side of the ball. Last season this unit was torched for 30 points per game and got progressively worse as they played out the season. With nine starters back, Holtz and his coaches repeatedly told boosters, alumni and the media that this year would be different. Last week in holding the Hokies to just 237 yards, their statements showed early promise. This week, they will be even further tested as they face an opponent that in last season’s matchup gained nearly 400 yards rushing and 200 more through the air. That embarrassment will further serve to motivate.

    DONNIE BLACK

    NORTHWESTERN AT DUKE +6

    Recommendation: Duke

    The wrong team is favored here. Duke enters 2008 as a different team with a tremendous amount of enthusiasm centered around its new coach David Cutcliffe. Extremely successful

    as a coordinator at Tennessee and head coach at Mississippi, Cutcliffe has raised expectations. The culture and acceptance of losing is no longer tolerated. Last week as they beat James Madison 31-7, Duke sent a signal to those that were paying attention that this would be a different year. Normally a win over a Division I-AA team might not be worthy of note, but James Madison returned 16 starters to a team that lost 28-27 to Appalachian State in the playoffs. Ranked in the Top 5 in all polls, the win is more impressive

    than most people realize. They held James Madison to 239 yards and did not allow a third down conversion. With 10 starters back on the defensive side this is likely a sign of some good things to come even as the Blue Devils step up in class. Northwestern is projected

    as a lower echelon Big Ten team. With seven consecutive seasons with between three and sevens wins, they are as mediocre as they come. Talent, athleticism and speed should all be in favor of Duke and with home field advantage, we see no reason why this Duke team can’t beat Northwestern for a second straight season as an underdog

    JARED KLEIN

    MINNESOTA +4.5 AT BOWLING GREEN

    Recommendation: Minnesota

    Minnesota got the job done SU last weekend against Northern Illinois, 31-27. This weekend we’re not asking the Gophers to win by any margin but to just keep the game close, something I believe they’ll do. The offense looked very solid against Northern Illinois behind sophomore QB Adam Weber. Weber completed 64 percent of his passes for 298 yards and two touchdowns. What was even more impressive was that he threw no interceptions and wasn’t forced to serve as the team’s leading

    rusher as RB Duane Bennett ran the ball 18 times for 92 yards and two touchdowns.

    I was also impressed with the Gophers’ defense as the game progressed. Minnesota

    held Northern Illinois to just 72 yards on the ground for an average of just 2.3 ypc despite starting five new players on defense. I expect this team to continue to grow and get better throughout the season. It’s no secret why Bowling Green was able to knock off Pittsburgh despite posting only 254 yards of total offense. The Falcons capitalized on a whopping three fumbles and one interception in their 10-point victory. Minnesota was very careful with the ball against NIU and I anticipate

    another solid effort from this young team. Take the plus points this weekend

    BRENT CROW

    SOUTHERN MISS AT AUBURN -18

    Recommendation: Auburn

    Both teams opened the season with easy wins over the directional Louisiana

    schools last week. Auburn defeated UL-Monroe, 34-0 and Southern Miss crushed Louisiana-Lafayette, 51-21. It seems as if the early bettors were not very impressed with Auburn’s win, however, as the Tigers quickly dropped from -20 to -17. I disagree with the early move though, and think the Auburn defense will be much tougher than what the Golden Eagles faced last week when they piled up 435 yards rushing. The Tigers’ defense held UL-Monroe to 220 total yards in the shutout and will face a very young Southern Miss offense. The Eagles were facing one of the worst defenses in the nation last week and were able to manhandle the Cajuns at the line of scrimmage. That will not be the case this week on the road at Auburn, and they will be forced to throw the ball. That should play into the Tigers’ hands and lead to a few turnovers. Auburn’s offense didn’t do much last week through the air and the coaches and fans were not pleased. I think that ensures that they will be focused on improving this week and will result in a solid performance

    GOLD SHEET - KEY RELEASES

    College

    Northwestern by 16 over Duke

    Florida by 31 over Miami-Florida

    Air Force by 7 over Wyoming

    Mississippi by 3 over Wake Forest

    Pointwise for week of Sept. 4-8

    ** Key Selections are graded 1 to 4, with 1 being the highest rating. "5" rated games are considered "best of the rest"

    College selections

    1--KANSAS over Louisiana Tech 52-10

    1--ALABAMA over Tulane 48-3

    2--Northwestern over DUKE 33-10

    2--WAKE FOREST over Ole Miss 34-17

    3--OKLAHOMA STATE over Houston 44-20

    4--GEORGIA over Central Michigan 56-19

    5--ARIZONA over Toledo 48-10

    5--TEMPLE (+) over UConn 24-22

    KANSAS 52 - Louisiana Tech 10 - (7:00) -- Jays went thru the motions in rout of

    FlaInt, with no pts in final 20 minutes, & only TD allowed on punt return. They

    averaged 48.5 ppg at home LY, & on a 15-3 ATS run, with their last 12 covers

    by 15.9 ppg! Tech did it with mirrors in upset of MissSt (5 takeaways), with QB

    Bennett just 14-of-40. Note losing their last 2 RGs by 58-10 & 49-10 scores.

    ALABAMA 48 - Tulane 3 - (7:00) -- As we stated LW, 'Bama is rarely outmanned,

    & isn't carrying the "instant success" Saban stigma of LY. Brilliant debut in rout

    of #9 Clemson. Amazing 239-0 RY edge, holding Davis & Spiller to combined

    20 RYs. Check a 41:13-18:47 time edge. Opener for Greenies is a wipeout.

    Northwestern 33 - DUKE 10 - (7:00) -- Sweet revenge. 'Cats welcomed return

    to form of RB Sutton LW (144 RYs), with 3 TD tosses from Bacher. Nicely

    balanced, & the only TD they allowed in opener came on a 9-yd drive. Imps

    return 17 starters, with Cutcliffe's debut a success, but check allowing >5 ypr

    to JsMad. Visitor 9-3 ATS in Duke tilts, & Imps were 117th on "O" LY. Romper.

    WAKE FOREST 34 - Mississippi 17 - (3:30) -- Deacons continue to impress, &

    altho Baylor is hardly proper barometer, fact is that they can be dominating,

    with their solid "D" (26th LY), & leadership of QB Skinner (27-of-36 & 3 TDs in

    opener). Chalk now on 7-0 ATS run in Wake games by 118 pts. Rebs' Nutt

    got his debut win, but check 28-19 FD deficit, while allowing 453 yds. Dekes.

    OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Houston 20 - (7:00) -- New Coog HC Sumlin's troops

    ran up 615 yds vs Southern, with Keenum tossing 5 TDs. But that ends quickly.

    Fact is that Houston is on an 0-5 ATS run, by 67 pts. Balanced attack of OSt

    (>40 pts 11 times since '06) is led by Robinson & Hunter, & was solid in trip to

    WashSt, with a surprising "D" that allowed <200 yds to LY's 27th rated offense.

    GEORGIA 56 - Central Michigan 17 - (3:30) -- Top ranked Bulldogs got 3 TDs

    from Moreno on only 3 carries in walkthrough win over GaSouthern. Racked

    up another 535 yds, & have now topped 40 pts 7 times since LY. Yes, we know

    that Wise Points notes the 'Dawgs' futility as a NC DD chalk, but in '07, the

    Chips played 4 non-ACC away games, & were stung for 52, 45, 70, & 51 pts.

    Winning Points 9/4 - 9/8

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ****BEST BET

    PENN STATE* over OREGON STATE by 35

    No team in the nation has traveled worse in non-conference games the past three seasons that the Oregon State Beavers. Three years ago it was a 63-27 loss at Louisville as +13.5. Two years ago it was 42-14 at Boise State as +7.5. Then last year it was 34-3 at Cincinnati as -3.5. When you lose to the pointspread by an average of 26 points per game in a particular setting it is extremely meaningful, and we add an additional meaning this time around – those were all better Beaver squads than what Mike Riley is fielding right now. A program that has relied on a lead RB to stabilize the offense, and a staunch defensive front, has neither right now, which was fully evident when they were out-rushed 210-86 at Stanford last week. Want to find the last time that Stanford out-rushed a Pac 10 opponent by more than 100 yards? Give yourself plenty of time for the search. But that is what happens when you lose Yvenson Bernard on offense, and have to replace the entire

    front seven on the other side of the ball, and the growing pains will show throughout here against an explosive Penn State offense that can exploit those weaknesses. And do not be fooled by the 404 yards that Lyle Moevao threw for in last week’s loss, since he put the ball in the air 54 times vs. a defense that lacked a pass rush. Now it is a much tougher matchup vs. the Nitanny Lion defensive speed, and a team that is accustomed to being blown out in these settings is as vulnerable as ever, with the awkward travel from Corvallis to State College also taking a toll.

    PENN STATE 45-10.

    ***BEST BET

    MARYLAND over MIDDLE TENNESSEE* by 30

    When a team loses badly at home in a game that they were pointing for in a major way, a statement has been made. And when that same team had a +2 turnover advantage, and still lost to the spread by more than a full TD in that same game, an additional statement has been made. Add the statements up and we have the following – Middle Tennessee is a struggling program right now. After seeing a disappointing 2007 season end with an ugly 45-7 drubbing at Troy, Rick Stockstill and his Blue Raiders spent a great deal of the off-season trying to put the pieces together for a season-opening rematch against the Trojans, falling by 14 despite that turnover advantage, and getting beaten by a 4.7 to 3.4 count in yards per play. Now having failed in a game in which they were aiming perhaps too much for, we get them at the ideal team to be exploited here. And for our purposes we get outstanding

    value as well, with Maryland playing to a stodgy 14-7 on the scoreboard

    vs. Delaware that will not impress anyone. But that is a solid Delaware program that played for the national championship at their level LY, and the Terrapins did a lot of things right that did not make the scoreboard, particularly the 197 rushing yards from Da’Rel Scott, who can be a break-out player this season. Combine him with WR’s Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Ralph Friedgan has some legitimate playmakers. But three missed field goals kept some of that production off of the board last week, and that means a cheap price to lay with the far better team here.

    MARYLAND 40-10

    Red Sheet 9/4-9/8

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KANSAS 52 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 21½, & is now minus 20½.

    The line in this one has dropped about a TD, from what it would have been before last week's action, & it is simply non realistic. Sure, the Bulldogs pulled the upset of MissSt, much to our dismay, but remember that they trailed 14-3 at one point, before the turnover turned it all around, including a fumbled punt at the 10, followed by a penalty, when theywere apparently stopped. A year ago, we rode the Jayhawks, with their weekly rompers

    very rewarding. They opened in rather lackadaisical fashion in opening day rout, not allowing an "O" TD. But full attention here, following Tech's success, with plenty to spare.

    RATING: KANSAS 90

    PENN STATE 38 - Oregon State 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at PennSt minus 13, & is now minus 16½. No, a 3½ pt line movement in the wrong direction is hardly cause for celebration, but this one just sets up too nicely for the Lions. They've been one of the steadiest of home plays, completely dominating all but OhioSt in that role a year ago, & they return 9 starters from LY's 10th-ranked defense, including 7th vs the run. Now couple that with the Beavers managing only 86 RYs (3.1 ypr) in their opening week loss to a Stanford team which ranked 99th on defense in '07. OregonSt has dropped some bombs lately, in travelling to nonconference venues, & steady home play of the Lions (34-16 ATS) extends that trend.

    RATING: PENN STATE 89

    Northwestern 33 - DUKE 13 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Northwestern minus 6, & is now minus 6½. Going with the revenge motive is sometimes a knee-jerk reaction to a particular contest, with it far from automatic success, but in his case it just cannot be ignored. A year go, the Imps snapped a 22-game losing string, by upsetting the Wildcats, as 16-pt dogs. And yes, it was

    done with smoke & mirrors, as the 'Cats enjoyed edges of 25-15 in FDs, & 536-309 in yards. N'Western's opening win over Syracuse was a case of simply wearing down an opponent, with a rejuvenated RB Sutton (144 RYs), & QB Bacher (3 TDs) the catalysts. The 'Cats won their last 2 trips to Durham by 28-10 & 44-7 scores (21 & 19½ pt covers).

    RATING: NORTHWESTERN 89

    South Florida 40 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 17 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Line opened at SouthFlorida minus 13½, & is now minus 14. It is normally wise to stay away from bucking a team which has had a game circled for a year, but this just may be the case. In '07, the Knights of CentralFla were simply destroyed by the firepower & overwhelming defense of the Bulls, in a 64-12 wipeout, with an amazing yardage deficit of 543-145. That's nearly 400 yds, folks. And it wasn't a down year for the Knights, who posted a 10-win season. But the Bulls have risen to the 17th spot in the nation, with a renewed sense of dedication. More's the pity.

    RATING: SOUTH FLORIDA 88

    Maryland 33 - MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 10 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Maryland minus 14, & is now minus 13½. We originally figured a much closer game, but respected sources have the Terps as a rather comfortable winner here. Sure, Maryland has California dead ahead, & was hardly impressive in its narrow opening week escape vs Delaware, save for Scott's 197 RYs in his first career start (7.6 ypr). QB Steffy tossed a couple of INTs, which resulted in his being benched, but look for vast improvement vs the Raiders, who came up short in their hugely important rematch vs Troy last week. Can't bypass juicy spread.

    RATING: MARYLAND 88

    BUFFALO 23 - Seattle 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at pick-em, & is now Buffalo minus 1. Obviously, if this one is decided by the QB position, it would be a no-brainer with the Seahawks in a walk, as Hasselbeck has the edge over Edwards (altho neither is in the best of health). But the Bills are a comer, & have the dominating back in Lynch, who ran for 1,115 yds & 7 TDs in his rookie season, & the Bills have added LB Mitchell & DT Stroud to a defense which held 4 of its final 5 foes to 17 pts or less. At home, the Bills failed only twice ATS last year. Those teams? Try the Super Bowl Patriots & Giants. Host in Seattle contests is golden.

    RATING: BUFFALO BILLS 88

    The Sports Reporter

    COLLEGE FOOTBALL

    BEST BET

    *FLORIDA over MIAMI-FL by 9

    A possible Hurricane named Hanna could wreak havoc with this game, but let’s proceed as if it will be prepped for and played without interruption. Florida may have scored 56 on a transitional Hawaii club, but the total was courtesy of 3 defensive/special teams TD’s and 3 more scores of 33, 48, and 62 yards. They’ll have to work much harder against an ultra-athletic intra-state opponent trying to re-build their

    reputation. What better way than to battle the poster child for Sunshine State football in their own house? The ‘Canes’ staff has had months to prepare given last week’s softball of a game against Charleston Southern. How do they hit the 94 mile-per-hour slider that is the Gators? Look for Shannon and crew to run the ball right at the Florida defensive front, an area manned by unproven youngsters. Before they fell behind, Hawaii had some

    success doing just that with their backs and UGA gashed a better Gator defensive front in 2007. Success here will keep the ball out of Tebow’s hands – a key to hanging with Meyer’s bunch. Miami was blasted 51-13 at Oklahoma in week two last year and will not oblige the Swamp faithful with an encore. FLORDIA, 27-18.

    BEST BET

    *WESTERN MICHIGAN over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 20

    The Westerns have dominated Time of Possession but managed only consecutive narrow wins vs. NIU the last two seasons. This time around, perhaps they’ll continue to dominate the clock while also putting a scoreboard gap between themselves and the visitor. To help them create it, they are employing a 24-season mole from NIU, Mike Sabock. As the Huskies’ former recruiting coordinator for the last 12 seasons during the since-exiled

    Novak regime, he knows where all the holes exist in a defense that allowed 434 yards per game last season, and 425 yards to Minnesota last Saturday. NIU’s offense went nowhere on the ground in the Metrodome. Although they transition back into the MAC, they are actually facing a better pass defense in this match-up and probably a better defense overall. Western has pocketed $800,000 from the trip to Nebraska, where they stiffed us. They owe us, and they are dropping in class. WESTERN MICHIGAN, 41-21.

    BEST BET

    CONNECTICUT over *TEMPLE by 21

    UConn head coach Randy Edsall was furious following last Thursday’s opening 35-3 win vs. Hofstra, which is exactly the mindset you want from your road-favorite head coach going against a relatively phony upstart home dog. From Edsall’s point of view, the Huskies have a lot of messes to clean up from that game, especially on offense. But they have a veteran crew and are very eligible to take a step forward. The UConn defense allowed only a field goal after being bait-and-switched by the Long Island boys, who used a quarterback that Connecticut didn’t prepare for. Which is basically how Army’s offense goes into its games, so you give Temple zero bonus points for what might have appeared to be an impressive, 35-7 win against the hapless Cadets last Friday night, where they generated only 265 offensive yards. As suggested here in the projection, several Temple scores were the result of gifts presented to them by Army. Last season’s ultra-sweaty, 22-17 home win vs. Temple in Week 3, which was pre-Pitt, is all the more reason for the Big East boys to take this trip seriously. CONNECTICUT, 31-10.

    BEST BET

    *KANSAS over LOUISIANA TECH by 35

    The Bulldogs’ outright win when getting 7.5 at home against Mississippi State sets them up nicely for a painful fall. La. Tech coach Dooley knows the SEC and why not – his dad is a Georgia legend that played his ball at Auburn. The Big 12 – not so much knowledge there. As noted in last week’s Recommended winner, Sylvester Croom’s offense stalled, turned it over, and was about as dynamic as a career librarian. Kansas is more the 3 am underground nightclub type and will create matchup problems for a less athletic Bulldog defense. QB Reesing was ultra-efficient against FIU and that trend will continue as he

    manages drives, protects the ball, and makes plays this week. Should the Jayhawk offense fail to fly at times – no sweat – La Tech QB (Georgia Tech transfer) Taylor Bennett was 15-of-40 last week and historically struggles against speed due to his heavy feet and weak arm. Lawrence, Kansas was rocking last week as the fan base reacts to last year’s 12-1 mark. That was for FIU, arguably the worst team in D1-A – or whatever they call it these days. The visitors are in for a rude awakening. KANSAS, 42-7.

    BEST BET

    TEXAS over *UTEP by 12

    There will be no knee-jerking based on Texas’ rout of FAU, and UTEP’s being routed by Buffalo. Different week, different teams, and UTEP's new 3-3-5 defense was the wrong defense to go into Buffalo with, given UB’s ability to run, run, run against wispy defenders like UTEP’s. All is far from perfect in the UTEPian society, as three INTs, a dropped punt snap, and two 100-yard rushers for Buffalo attest. But Mike Price was worried that his Miners would be looking ahead to this rare opportunity to host a ranked, intra-state power on ESPN2.Was he was worried because he was one of those looking ahead, and didn’t bother preparing them for the ho-hum trip to Buffalo? Against Texas, Florida Atlantic converted four of its first five third downs to start the game, with big pass plays of 22, 15, 33 and 62 yards on each conversion. After FAU scored 10 firsthalf points, new Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp made some adjustments and the Owls were shut out in the second half, but they had given Texas some full-game

    ammo when their coach suggested the Longhorns were soft. “We brought it to 'em, showed 'em we were tough and can play a full 60 minutes," said one Texas RB. But is Texas prepared to do that for a second straight game when they are looking ahead to hosting Arkansas in Austin? UTEP will not stop playing in this one. TEXAS, 42-30.

    Northcoast Power Sweep:

    4* Florida 44-13

    3*East Carolina +

    3* LSU 41-10

    2* Temple + 21-20

    2*Oregon 45-3

    2* Pittsburg 30-13

    Underdog ULM +14 21-17

    Power Sweep College Key Selections

    4* FLORIDA over Miami, Fl - These two were fierce rivals in the 80’s and have met 4 times this decade including 2 bowls with Miami winning all 4! UM rFr QB Marve was susp LW and makes his debut here. The line play will be the key as UM replaces 3 OL starters while UF replaces their top sack man. The Hurricanes rush attack slowed to a crawl gaining just 1.6 ypc the L/3 games of LY while Florida’s rush D all’d just 2.3 ypc on the ssn at home. Miami has never been a DD dog in this rivalry. Keep in mind LY Miami was a DD dog 3 times and was 1-2 ATS with the lone win by a half point and a loss to Oklahoma 51-13. Their young QB will make his first road start in the Swamp. Florida is coming off a 56-10 rout vs Hawaii AND has a bye on deck! The Gators also whipped Fla

    St (-14) in their season finale LY 45-12. While Florida has the obvious offensive edge (#1-85), the defensive edge is slightly closer (#5-22). The Gators have a better off, better def, 4 times revenge and state pride. FORECAST: FLORIDA 44 Miami, Fl 13

    3* EAST CAROLINA (+) over West Virginia - WV has won 7 in a row SU in the series outgaining EC by 194 ypg. Until LY it appeared Holtz had devised the perfect plan to stop the spread as they were the only team to hold WV under 200 yards rush in both

    ‘05 and ‘06 covering by 11 ppg. WV shredded them for 599 yards in a 48-7 win in ‘07. Holtz is 10-4 ATS vs non-conf and 17-5 ATS as a dog! LW QB Pat White threw (no really) for a career high 5 TD’s in WV’s new look offense which features a more balanced attack. Despite being outgained 399-354 & allowing IAA Villanova to control the TOP(37:22), the Mountaineers prevailed 48-21. We won a 3H LPS on EC as they stunned #17

    VT in Beamer-like fashion blocking a punt with 1:52 left for a 27-22 outright upset. WV once again has the off (#16-47) and ST’s (#40-94) edges while EC has the D edge

    (#34-56). Holtz has been an excellent underdog coach but now has his team expecting to beat BCS caliber foes. FORECAST: EAST CAROLINA 31 (+) West Virginia 34

    3* LSU over Troy - Troy is off B2B 8-win seasons and HC Blakeney keeps them playing hard as they are 5-2 ATS vs BCS teams. What is even more impressive is that they avg’d 400 ypg in 3 SEC road games LY. They now are led by QB Hampton who got his 2nd career start in LW’s decisive SBC win over MT. Troy RB Harris had 148 rush (7., but LB’s Woods and Lee posted 25 tkl, 2.5 sk, 5.5 tfl to steal the show. LSU QB Hatch made his 1st career start LW (7-14 for 77 yds, 1 TD) but split time with Jarrett Lee (6-10 for 116 with 2-1 ratio) in the IA vs IAA championship battle. RB Scott got the start (160, 10.0). LSU has another week to work on their offense with NT on deck and expect

    the defense to step up as they gave up 187 yds passing (42%) to App St LW. Troy is 1-8 vs the SEC only losing by an avg of 12 pgg. LSU on the other hand is 31-0 SU vs SBC teams with avg win of 46-3. In their only other meeting LSU was -24 in 2004 and barely won 24-20. Troy has a different QB,different OC and will have disparate SEC results compared to LY. FORECAST: LSU 41 Troy 10 NOTE: THIS GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL NOV. 15

    OTHER SELECTIONS

    2* TEMPLE (+) over Connecticut-Temple beat Connecticut LY getting a TD pass with :40 left but they were robbed by the officials and then the replay crew (see PH). Conn has now won 11 in a row SU vs the MAC (7-4 ATS). Temple is just 7-25 SU at home but always puts a little more into this game (4-0 ATS vs Conn) as they were kicked out of the Big East and basically replaced by Conn. UC only had a IAA foe (beat Hofstra 35-3) LW, who was without their starting QB. The Huskies have 17 starters back from their 9-4 bowl squad. Temple has all 22 starters back with just 3 lettermen lost but does have their MAC opener on deck. Golden is 6-2 as a HD while UC has been an AF just 9 times in 7 years but is 7-2 ATS in that role. The Owls are off a 35-7 win over Army, in the Knights 1st game with their new option offense, but were still outgained by Army 284-250 as the Owls scored on a FR and a 98 yd KR. Expect marked improvement from the 22 Owl returning starters from Wk 1 to Wk 2.

    FORECAST: TEMPLE 21 (+) Connecticut 20

    2*OREGON over Utah St - First meeting S/’01 as the Ducks are 3-0 SU (1-0 ATS) all-time vs the Aggies with a 39-12 margin of victory. The Aggies dropped their 2nd straight ssn opener at the hands of UNLV but are 6-2 ATS as an AD and 2-1 ATS vs BCS teams the L3Y but have won just 6 of 36 gms vs the Pac-10. The Ducks delivered a 3H LPS Winner LW despite losing starting QB Roper (late 2Q) with a mild concussion. UO is 13-3 ATS as a HF and beat WAC member Fresno by 31 LY (-16’). Under Bellotti, the Ducks are 27-1 SU at home vs non-conf foes but surprisingly haven’t been a 20+ fav in 4 years. With Oregon coming off a P10 game, a trip to the Big Ten, matchup vs ranked Boise and the rest of the P10 sked, this is the game they put the least emphasis on this year. FORECAST: OREGON 45 Utah St 3

    2* PITTSBURGH over Buffalo - 1st meeting. Buffalo is 3-13 ATS vs current BE teams & 1-10 in their L/11 road openers. Pitt is now 25-3 vs the MAC. Pitt was handed their worst upset home loss since 2001 to USF. They squandered a 14-0 lead losing 27-17 to BG, despite a 393-254 yd edge. Buffalo had a huge win over UTEP 42-17. QB Willy threw for a IA school record 4 TD’s. For a team that allowed 406 ypg & 28 ppg in ‘07, they held UTEP to 266 yds. Pitt plays their 2nd straight MAC team at home with a bye on deck while Buffalo has their MAC opener on deck. Pitt has the edge on offense (#45-52) and defense (#18-58). Pitt OC Cavanaugh told the Panther fans that they would be surprised with the new offense and the pressure is on after LW’s loss. BG stacked 8 in the box and Stull refused to stretch the field. Wannstedt will fix that TW.

    FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 30 Buffalo 13

    UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

    Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 177-123. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 27 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record!

    Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week:

    UL-Monroe (+14 1/2) over Arkansas

    Arkansas’ new offense struggled vs IAA W Ill only winning 28-24 but QB Dick did pass for 318 yds (just the 10th Razorback to throw for 300+ yds). They were without RB Smith who was serving a one-gm suspension. They now host an upper echelon SBC team that, of course, knocked off Bama LY but struggled vs Auburn in their opener (lost 34-0 and were without starting WR’s McNeal and Sapp). The young Ark LB’s corp will find this Lancaster-led (136 yds LW vs Aub) offense a formidable early season test. LY the Hogs hosted 3 SBC teams (Troy, FlU & NT a combined 11-25) and while they did win all 3 they allowed 329 ypg. ULM meanwhile traveled to 3 BCS teams (Clem, A&M, Bama) and avg’d 350 ypg. These tms last met in ‘05 and UA is 7-0 SU but 3-4 ATS in the series. The Razorbacks have just 11 returning starters and are learning new schemes with Texas on deck while ULM has 15 starters back with Alabama A&M up next. FORECAST: ARKANSAS 21 Ulm 17

    Marc Lawrence Playbook

    3 Star

    Miami-Ohio

    4 Star

    Auburn

    5 Star

    Penn State

    3* BEST BET

    Though Michigan fans may disagree, the Wolverines’ 25-23 loss to

    Utah in UM coach Rich Rodriguez’ debut was not the surprise many

    have made it out to be: the veteran Utes simply owned better, more

    experienced players. And that’s the problem once again here today.

    The RedHawks, the preseason pick to win the MAC East division behind

    17 returning starters this season, fell unceremoniously in a puzzling 21-

    point home loss to Vanderbilt, a game which was near-even in the stats.

    They are 5-1 ATS on the road in games off an upset loss as a favorite.

    More importantly, 17 returning starter dogs in Game Two off a SU and

    ATS loss are a rock-solid 25-9 ATS. Coupled with information shared in

    Marc’s SHAKEDOWN STREET article on page 2, we can only envision

    more trouble on the horizon for the Dazed-and-Blue as they continue

    to try and adapt to Rich Rod’s new schemes. It should be noted that

    when Rodriguez took over the West Virginia job in 2001 he inherited

    a bowl team that proceeded to fi nish 3-8 in his fi rst year at the helm.

    No surprise to see UM tumble to 2-10 ATS in the ‘Big House’ against

    non-conference foes.

    4* BEST BET

    Auburn lived up to early expectations with a dominating 34-0 win over

    La-Monroe to open the ’08 season but the Tigers face a much tougher

    foe here. Southern Miss kicked off the Larry Fedora era by crushing the

    Sun Belt’s other Louisiana rep from Lafayette, 51-21, and cruise into this

    meeting on a 4-0 ATS series run against Aubbie. That’s where the good

    news ends and the bad starts, however, for the Golden Eagles. That’s

    because Smissy is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven showdowns against teams

    from the SEC. Adding to their misery is the best from this week’s SMART

    BOX (see page 3). Toss in the fact the Eagles are a miserable 3-18 ATS in

    games they lose SU as a dog when playing off a double-digit win and

    you can see where we’re going here. With Aubbie’s offense growing

    more accustomed to Tony Franklin’s new spread attack, look for the eye

    of the Tiger to take dead aim on the Eagles and improve to 10-3 ATS as

    double-digit favorites in Game Two of the season here today.

    5* BEST BET - PENN ST

    Troublesome debut for the Beavers last week in a 36-28 loss to underdog

    Stanford. A rush defense that was rock-solid last year couldn’t slow down

    a stiff breeze versus the Cardinal and OSU QB Moevao – despite a 34-of-

    54 for 404 yards and 3 TDs performance – was done in by turnovers. The

    only team from a BCS conference to open the season with consecutive

    road games, Oregon State must travel cross-country and hitch it up to

    take on Joe Pa’s Nittany Lions, a 2-TD favorite after swamping Coastal

    Carolina 66-10. The Beavs are 1-5 SU in their last six trips to the Eastern

    Time Zone (the win was against a Temple team that proceeded to lose

    50 of its next 57 games). The last two visits resulted in 34-2 and 63-

    27 losses to Cincinnati and Louisville, respectively. Now dead even with

    Bobby Bowden in career victories, Paterno has gone 7-4 SU and ATS in

    his last 11 PAC 10 clashes – plus his Lions own a sturdy 5-1 ATS mark as

    non-conference HFs of 7 or more points. The Beavers’ pointspread dam

    looks leaky, at best: Game Two road dogs off a SU road favorite loss

    in Game One are a wallet-emptying 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS. With Oregon

    State already 0-5 ATS in its last 5 Game Two situations, it looks like fl attailed

    rodent could be on the menu today in Happy Valley.

    UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

    Oops… not long after FAU coach Schnellenberger suggested that

    Texas “wasn’t that physical a football team,” the Owls had to eat a

    major portion of crow following their 52-10 destruction at Austin

    last week. Now they’re faced with having to regroup against a team

    of Blazers that returns 17 starters in head coach Neil Callaway’s 2nd

    season. Out database chips in with this dandy: 17 Returning Starters

    dogs in Game Two, playing off a SU and ATS loss, are 25-9 ATS. Toss in

    Howie Longname’s 6-15 ATS mark as home in games off a double-digit

    defeat and FAT’s (Florida Atlantic) dismal 1-6 ATS log as home chalk

    and we suddenly smell an upset in the making. Don’t forget, the Owls

    defense slipped 82 YPG in an 8-win bowl season last year. Like Texas,

    these Blazers may not be all that physical but they fi t just right.

    SPORTS INSIGHTS 3-0 last week

    Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 2

    Recapping Week1

    This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and we couldn't have asked for a better start. Not only did all three of the teams we highlighted cover the spread, they won outright as well. It just goes to show you that preseason hype is just that, hype, as three preseason top-25 teams fell to underdogs.

    Overall = 3-0 = 100.0%

    NCAA WEEK 2

    Week 1 was much anticipated, and it didn't disappoint. We saw some big upsets, some big injuries, and a lot of good games. Some conferences looked very strong (SEC), and some looked... well let's just say not very good (ACC). Week 2 has some high-profile teams making their season debuts (Notre Dame and Miami), and features some interesting matchups (West Virginia at East Carolina). We're glad to have the college teams back battling on the way to the BCS Championship Game in Miami.

    Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

    We anticipate there will still be quite a few lopsided bet games this week due to more cupcakes on the schedules of some top teams. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here are a trio of line value games we are keying on.

    NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 2 – Games to Watch

    BYU vs Washington (9/6 -3:30P)

    BYU has come into this season shooting to become last season's Hawaii, the team from a non-BCS conference to receive a BCS bowl bid. The Cougars have a history of high-powered offenses, and it looks no different this season. The public LOVES offense, and they tend to follow that when they bet. High-scoring offenses also tend to turn the ball over, as the Cougars did last week by coughing up five fumbles. BYU had a good defense last season, but lost eight starters from that unit. There's still a question how the new starters will perform after allowing some big plays last week against Northern Iowa.

    Washington is coming off a road loss to No. 18 Oregon, and the Huskies' Tyrone Willingham is on the hot seat in his fourth season. Willingham does have a special talent in QB Jake Locker, who passed for 2,062 yards and ran for another 986 in 2007. The Huskies defense has experience and a new coordinator in Ed Donatell, who spent 13 seasons as a coordinator in the NFL.

    The Cougars are receiving 60% of wagers at Sports Insights' contributing sportsbooks, but the line has moved in the opposite direction you would expect. BYU opened at Pinnacle as 10-point favorites, but are currently at -8.5. A 1.5 point move against that percentage shows me that the Sharps are backing Washington. I'm going to follow the Smart Money, especially since there are still some places offering Washington +9.5 (Sports Interaction).

    Washington +9.5 (Sports Interaction)

    Texas A&M vs New Mexico (9/6 - 5:00P)

    Texas A&M opened the Mike Sherman era with a home loss to Arkansas State, not a good way to endear yourself to the Aggies' 12th Man. Sherman is switching to a pro-style offense at A&M, but it doesn't look like he has the right fit of players for that system. Senior QB Stephen McGee is more of a dual-threat player, as he was the Big 12's top rushing quarterback last season with 899 yards. Sherman also moved bruising RB Jorvorskie Lane to fullback, and made Mike Goodson the featured back. The Aggies didn't have a strong defense last season, and lost their top-2 defensive players heading into 2008.

    New Mexico won its first bowl game since 1961 last season with a 23-0 defeat of Nevada in the New Mexico Bowl. The Lobos return key talent on offense including two-time first-team all-conference running back Rodney Ferguson. He is joined in the backfield by fellow RB Paul Baker (over 200 yards total offense in New Mexico Bowl). New Mexico also returns a strong secondary from last season, which could give fits to A&M's McGee.

    The Aggies are receiving 76% of the betting public's support playing on the road, but they have moved from -3 favorites at Pinnacle to -2.5. Yet again, I'm following the Sharps and taking the home dog. Much like last week's Michigan game, beware of a coach implementing a new system without the right players in place to run it.

    New Mexico +2.5

    Mississippi vs Wake Forest (9/6 - 7P)

    Wake Forest went on the road and crushed Big 12 cellar dweller Baylor 41-13 in week 1. Junior Riley Skinner begins his third season as the Demon Deacons starting QB. Skinner was the most accurate passer in the NCAA last season with a 72-percent completion rate, but Wake lost four starters along its offensive line. The Deacs also return the bulk of a talented defense.

    In Houston Nutt's debut Mississippi started out the year with a big win against Memphis. It seems Nutt has found a decent option in Junior WR Dexter McCluster to play the Darren McFadden position of his "Wildcat" offense that he brought over from Arkansas. Texas transfer QB Jevan Snead looked good in his first action for Ole Miss, and the Rebels' unpredictable offense can confuse even the most experienced defenses. With DT Peria Jerry and DE Greg Hardy, the Rebels also feature the SEC's most talented defensive line duo, and a potential stud LB in Allen Walker.

    The Deacs are receiving two-thirds of public wagers after receiving extra media attention for being the only ACC team to actually look good in week 1. Even with that public support, the line has moved a half-point in their favor. Could that be a sign of smart money I see? Absolutely. When two teams this talented square off, anything can happen, and we're following the Sharps in thinking this is a close one. I'll take Ole Miss and the points, especially when there are books offering 8 points like Olympic.

    Mississippi +7.5

    So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 1.

    Games to Watch (3-0)

    Washington +9.5 (Sports Interaction)

    New Mexico +2.5

    Mississippi +7.5

    One game just missing the cut this week was Northwestern at Duke. It's looking to be a Square Play, and if Duke ends up getting +7, I'm jumping in.

    It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

    

    posted by phantom

    Sept. 6 2008 5:41am