Marc Lawrence's PLAYBOOK

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Volume 23, Issue 2 August 28 - September 1, 2008

COLLEGE FOOTBALL KICKOFF ISSUE!

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

ATS W-L Record

Since 1992: 14-2 (88%)

PLAY ON any college football road dog of 8 or more points with 17 or more returning starters in Game One if they won 4 or more games last season.

Play On: BOWLING GREEN, FLA ATLANTIC & W. MICHIGAN

Thursday, August 28

BUFFALO over Utep by 3

Okay, so Buffalo head coach Turner Gill didn’t land the Nebraska job but

the former Husker QB did sign a lucrative contract extension through

2012 after his Bulls tied for last year’s MAC East Division title. In fact,

Gill has won almost as many games (7) in two seasons as his predecessor

Jim Hofher won (8) in fi ve years! A whopping 18 starters return for

Buffalo, led by SR signal-caller Drew Willy and JR RB James Starks, the

Bulls’ fi rst-ever single season 1,000 yard rusher. Yes, Buffy appears to

be knocking on the door of respectability but the Bulls seldom venture

into the role of pointspread chalk. That could pose a problem against

visiting Utep: the Miners stand 13-6-1 ATS as dogs under coach Mike

Price, including a 6-1-1 effort last season. And despite an 0-6 fi nish that

quelled any hopes of a winning campaign in ’07, the west Texans were

actually a mere 8 points away from being bowl eligible. With Buffalo

having lost eight of its nine previous home openers, we can’t find

enough positives for either side to get us off the fence here.

MIAMI OHIO over Vanderbilt by 7

We respect SEC underdogs playing outside their conference but the

cupboard looks mighty bare for this year’s Commodores. Vandy lost its

entire offensive line plus WR Earl Bennett, the loop’s all-time leader

in pass receptions, leaving coach Bobby Johnson with a dangerously

inexperienced unit. Not so for the RedHawks, who return 17 starters

from an ’07 squad that just missed a bowl berth when they lost to

Central Michigan in the MAC Championship game. We’ll admit Miami’s

recent 2-12 SU mark versus non-conference opponents isn’t exactly a

confi dence builder but Vanderbilt’s Johnson is a wallet-emptying 0-7

ATS in his career when taking 5 or less points. The RedHawks have also

cashed in all three appearances lately as favorites playing with non-con

revenge (lost 24-13 at Nashville LY). In a matchup of potential MAC

champs vs. SEC chumps, the ‘other’ Miami gets our vote.

SOUTH CAROLINA over NC State by 10

An interesting contest between two quality college football coaches

who were bitterly disappointed by last year’s results. South Carolina’s

Steve Spurrier saw his team open 6-1 in ’07 and climb high in the national

rankings before an 0-5 season-ending collapse kept the Gamecocks in

Columbia for the holidays. NC State shelled out the big bucks to lure

Tom O’Brien from Boston College but Wolfpack fans were howling with

rage when their team was unable to recover from a disastrous 1-5 start

– and the resulting 5-7 fi nish snapped an 8-year bowl skein. If player

experience was the only consideration in this game, SC should win in a

rout: the ‘Cocks return almost double the number of starters (16 to 9)

and lettermen (54 to 28). But O’Brien is a cagey customer (11-7 as a noncon

dog) and Spurrier’s outstanding 17-1 SU record in season openers

masks a less-than-impressive 3-9 ATS ledger. NC State is certainly too

green to warrant serious consideration here but the Pack has covered

the last four in this series while SC has dropped fi ve straight at home

in Game One. You may want to look elsewhere.

Wake Forest over BAYLOR by 16

Wake Forest football fans should be eternally thankful that the tiny

Baptist school’s Athletic Director decided to ‘keep the faith’ in head

coach Jim Grobe. After a promising three year start by the former Ohio

skipper where Wake averaged 6 wins per season, Grobe’s Deacons

suffered through back-to-back 4-win campaigns in 2004-05 and the

program appeared to be at a crossroads. Rather than ditch Grobe,

Wake’s brain trust stood by their man and the decision paid immediate

dividends: 20 wins in the last two seasons, consecutive bowl appearances

for the fi rst time in school history and the Deacs’ fi rst ACC title since

1970. With 15 returning starters including JR QB Riley Skinner (72%

pass completions in ’07), this year’s Demon Deacon squad is poised to

continue their success story. No doubt that new Baylor head coach Art

Briles did a masterful job in Houston but he’ll have his hands full in

this season opener. Briles owns a tepid 1-5 ATS mark as a HD of more

than 6 points while his coaching adversary has compiled a sweet 11-5

spread record on the road against non-conference foes. True, Wake

hasn’t been this big a road favorite since laying 13.5 at Duke in 2005

(won 44-6) but with the best of the SMART BOX (see page 3) at work

here tonight, look for Grobe’s Deacons to walk away from Waco with

a full collection plate.

Oregon St over STANFORD by 4

At fi rst glance, this PAC 10 lidlifter looks like a total Beaver blowout.

Oregon State has controlled the series – covering four of the last fi ve

meetings overall and at this site – and Mike Riley’s crew has consistently

brought the cash back to Corvallis in their fi rst lined game of the year,

winning fi ve of six. Stanford contributes to OSU’s aura of superiority

with a dismal 1-5 ATS mark playing at home with conference revenge

and an 0-3 badge of failure in the Cardinal’s previous three PAC 10

openers. Even so, Stanford strikes us as a band of overachievers under

spirited head coach Jim Harbaugh and they could fi nd some holes in a

Beaver defense returning just 3 starters to a unit that completely stuffed

the run last season (limited foes to just 71 YPG and 2.1 YPR). Throw in

OSU’s weak 1-6 SU and ATS log in its initial conference matchup and

suddenly things don’t appear so hopeless at The Farm. Pass.

ADDED GAME

MID TENN ST over Troy by 3

After back-to-back 8-win seasons and a postseason pounding of Rice in

the 2006 New Orleans Bowl, Troy’s Larry Blakeney will be hard-pressed

to engineer a Sun Belt three-peat in 2008. For openers, he must deal

with the loss of OC Tony Franklin, who took his highly successful spread

offense to Auburn. Even more daunting is the absence of his main

offensive catalysts, QB Omar Haugabook and RB Kenny Catthouse, a

pair of outstanding players who combined for an astonishing 4,671 total

yards from scrimmage last year. It’s tough enough for a team in fl ux

to open on the road as chalk but especially when their opponent hits

the fi eld breathing revenge-fueled fi re. Last year’s season-ending 45-7

loss at Troy marked MTSU coach Rick Stockstill’s worst-ever conference

loss with the Blue Raiders and we LOVE dogs in Game One matchups

that were annihilated in season fi nales the year before. Buoyed by a

coaching staff with 142 years of experience and the return of exciting QB

Dwight Dasher, don’t be surprised if Middle Tennessee State improves

to 3-0 as a home dog under the fi ery Stockstill.

Friday, August 29

Temple over ARMY by 10

Here’s a sight we haven’t seen since late 2002: the Temple Owls favored

by a touchdown. If the line appears somewhat outrageous, wait until

we tell you that Temple has won only ONCE in its last 26 road games,

has covered only twice in six tries as road chalk and lost outright to

Army last year by a 37-21 score! Ready to plop down some cash on the

Cadets? Not so fast, my friend… the Black Knights are one green team

heading into ’08, returning just 4 starters on offense and 5 on defense.

By comparison, Temple welcomes a veritable wealth of talent back to

Philly – 21 starters including both lines, 53 lettermen and 47 players

who saw playing time as freshmen and sophomores. The Owls took

the fi rst step to a major turnaround last season when they shook off

a typically hapless 0-5 start to record a 4-3 fi nish (led the MAC in total

defense!) and they’re champing at the bit to send Army down the road

to its 12th consecutive losing campaign. Oh yeah, Temple outgained

the Cadets by a sizable 134 yards in ‘07’s loss at West Point and a win

here establishes the Year of the New Owls. Expect undermanned Army

to fail for the seventh time in its last nine tries as a home dog.

RICE over Smu by 8

The June Jones Era in Dallas has offi cially begun. SMU ponied up a

fat $2 million a year for 5 years to lure Jones and his run-and-shoot

attack from Hawaii. Despite inheriting a 1-11 mess of a team, quick

turnarounds are part of Jones’ resume: he took an 0-12 Hawaii team

to 9-4 in his fi rst year on the island. SMU fi ts the ‘green team’ profi le

we’ve seen already with Army and NC State but it should be intriguing

to see Jones’ innovative offensive schemes attack a Rice stop unit that

fi nished DEAD LAST in total team defense last year, allowing 407 yards

and 43 points per game. Fortunately for the Texas Owls, they have a

quick-strike offense of their own, led by the best passing tandem in CUSA,

QB Chase Clement and WR Jarrett Dillard. Clement fi red his way to

18 school records and Dillard gained over 1,000 yards as the Owls rolled

to a best-ever 377 total points. Rice also owns the better pointspread

numbers, covering 5 of the last 6 in this series and posting a 5-1 log

playing with revenge at home versus a conference opponent. With

SMU bringing a sorry 1-6 ATS record as C-USA RD’s of 10 or less points

to the fray, we’ll have to side with Rice in what could be a scoreboardshattering shootout (Owls won last year, 43-42). Did we forget to

mention that the Mustangs are also a go-against proposition according

to our SMART BOX? THIS JUST IN: Jones will go with FRESHMAN QB

Bo Levi Mitchell over incumbent Justin Willis as the starter against Rice.

Mitchell ran a June Jones-style offense for a powerful Texas high school

program but he’ll still be taking his fi rst game snaps at this level. With

that in mind, we’ll saddle up with the home team tonight.

Saturday, August 30

MICHIGAN over Utah by 1

When new Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez last led a team onto the

playing fi eld, his West Virginia Mountaineers blew a point-blank shot

at the BCS Championship game by LOSING OUTRIGHT at Morgantown

to 28-point underdog Pittsburgh. Eight months and a contentious $4

million contract buyout later, Rodriguez makes his debut with the Maizeand-

Blue in what should be one of the day’s most closely-scrutinized

contests. The Wolverines’ new leader inherited some quality players on

defense but only four starters (new QB) return to operate his complex

no-huddle spread attack. Translation? These players weren’t recruited

to play this offense. Rodriguez also inherited a trove of horrible ATS

numbers: Michigan is 1-7 as non-conference HF’s of less than 30 points,

4-16 as chalk of 2 or more points in Game One and 3-9 in the fi rst of

back-to-back home games. True, those stats were amassed under the

departed Lloyd Carr but there’s no denying that today’s foe, Utah, is

one of the most underrated and dangerous teams in college football.

Led by a fi nally-healthy 5th year SR QB Brian Johnson, the Utes have

piled up 46 wins in the past fi ve seasons and own enough talent – 14

starters return plus a handful of former starters who missed ’07 with

injuries provide added depth – and coaching to contend for a BCS Bowl.

Utah’s outstanding 32-9-2 ATS record as an underdog means you won’t

get Rich playing the Wolverines in this spot. Expect the Utes to improve

to 4-0 against Big 10 foes after bagging the bucks today.

NORTHWESTERN over Syracuse by 8

Be careful what you wish for. When Syracuse was embarrassed 51-14

by Georgia Tech in the 2004 Champs Sports Bowl, longtime head coach

Paul Pasqualoni was sent packing in favor of Greg Robinson – a move

that turned out to be one of the biggest hiring blunders in college

gridiron history. Architect of a 7-28 record in three disastrous years

(only TWO wins versus Big East foes), Robinson was inexplicably asked

to return for a fourth season in 2008. His swan song gets underway

here against a Northwestern contingent returning its leading passer,

5th year Sr QB C.J. Bacher, all three leading receivers, and the team’s top

rusher, talented RB Tyrell Sutton. Yes, we like the look of the Wildcats

this year – just not in this role laying double digits. The Purple Cats own

an ugly 3-13 ATS mark as DD HF’s and have cashed only once in seven

prior tussles with Big East schools. Northwestern could also get caught

peeking ahead to next week’s Revenge Special against Duke (loss to

the Blue Devils kept them from reaching a bowl game). Robinson’s SU

record outside the Big East is actually a respectable 9-5 and coupled

with the ‘Cuse’s 9-4 ATS log in season openers (8-2 vs. foes who won 8

or less games LY), we’ll be sippin’ Orange juice today.

OLE MISS over Memphis by 6

Despite a trio of strong recruiting classes, former Mississippi head

coach Ed Orgeron managed to record just 10 wins in three tumultuous

seasons at Oxford – so he was given the boot and replaced by Houston

Nutt, a proven winner who logged a 76-48 mark at Arkansas. Now

there’s a palpable air of excitement surrounding the Ole Miss football

program. Nutt knows the SEC like the back of his hand and he’s supermotivated to prove the skeptics wrong. His fi rst task will be to take

down Memphis for the fi rst time since 2004: the Rebels have dropped

3 straight to the Tigers by just 4, 3 and 2 points. Tommy West’s Tigers

are positioned for a fast start in ’08 with six of their fi rst seven games

slated against non-winning squads from last year. Problem is they’re

just 1-6-1 ATS in road openers – and an embarrassing 3-24 SU against

SEC foes. However, hidden inside that awful SU log is a 16-8-1 record

as underdogs, including a shiny 13-2 nugget if the line grows to double

digits. We’re also concerned over the loss of three Ole Miss defensive

linemen from scrimmage injuries (all-SEC performer Greg Hardy is

out) so we’ll wait until they get healthy before raising the Rebel fl ag.

Besides, according to the SMART BOX, new head coach Nutt qualifi es

as a ‘play-against’ in his Magnolia State debut.

3* BEST BET

WYOMING over Ohio U by 20

Like George Peppard used to say on ‘The A-Team’, “I love it

when a plan comes together.” The home-team Cowboys certainly

appear to have more than enough edges in this matchup to ride

roughshod over the greenhorns from Athens, Ohio. For openers,

the Bobcats are an astonishing 0-22 (as in ZERO) SU away to open

the season and today’s trek to Laramie marks only the second

time since 1996 that Ohio U has ventured west of the Mississippi.

They’ll find a hungry Wyoming team waiting: the Cowboys

started 4-1 last year before collapsing to a 1-6 fi nish, victims of

too much youth on the roster. With 15 starters back, including

the entire offensive line – and SO QB Dax Crum taking the reins

from Karsten Sween – we expect good things for the ‘Boys in ’08.

Wyoming has stampeded its opponents right out of the gate,

going 13-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in home openers while covering all

seven as chalk. The Pokes are also a solid 54-14-1 ATS in SU home

wins… a number made even more appealing when we consider

Ohio coach Frank Solich’s awful 2-21 ATS mark in SU road losses.

Look for the Cowboys to corral the cash today.

WISCONSIN over Akron by 34

Ohio State and Michigan may get most of the Big 10 ink but the road

to the conference championship inevitably runs through Madison,

Wisconsin. That’s because the Badgers own the third best record in

the loop over the past 11 seasons – and third-year coach Bret Bielema

hasn’t missed a beat, going 21-5 in two seasons after replacing the

legendary Barry Alvarez. The Badgers have won and covered FIVE

consecutive season-openers, not good news for an Akron squad whose

offense landed in the MAC cellar last year (fi nished #111 in the nation)

while fi nishing on a 1-5 SU slide. The Zips also own a lifeless 0-5 ATS

record as dogs of < 28 points and have cashed only 3 of their previous

13 attempts as DD RD’s (Badger fans will also enjoy the numbers on

display in this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3). Wisconsin will come

into the game with a banged up secondary but new QB Allan Evridge

(logged 6 starts with Kansas State in his freshman year in 2005) has

consistently moved the offense in practice. In this mismatch between

a MAC lightweight and a Big 10 heavyweight, Akron’s J.D. Brookhart

might want to consider packing a white towel for the trip.

NEBRASKA over W Michigan by 10

Another eagerly-awaited coaching debut takes place in Lincoln where

former LSU defensive coordinator Bo Pelini takes over for the failed

Bill Callahan. Diehard Husker fans cheered the decision to hire Pelini,

especially after the Big Red ‘defense’ was gashed for 40 or more

points SIX times in ’07 (gave up a school record 76 points to Kansas!).

We happen to think that Pelini will turn things around in Huskerland

but it won’t happen overnight. Remember, this team laid 24 points at

home to Ball State last year and struggled to eke out a 41-40 win over

the Gonads. Although both squads qualify as 2008 ‘Mission Teams’,

the Broncos return more starters (18 to 12), a quality QB in Tim Hiller

and confi dence from a season-ending win at Iowa as 14-point dogs. In

the fi rst of fi ve consecutive home games to open the season, Nebraska

should churn out the SU win but this week’s SMART BOX reminds us

they’re not the side to back in Bo Pelini’s fi rst game.

OREGON over Washington by 11

The last time we saw Oregon, the underdog Ducks were routing USF

56-21 in one of the most dominant bowl performances of the decade.

Now Mike Bellotti’s bunch is going to amend the old adage that ‘two

heads are better than one’: word out of Eugene is the Ducks will employ

a ‘3-headed QB’ system to compensate for the departure of top-notch

Dennis Dixon (Pittsburgh Steelers). The Webfeet seem to have all the

numbers on their side, too. Oregon has covered 5 of its previous 6 Game

One appearances, cashed four straight in this series and body-slammed

opponents lately when laying double digits, going 8-2 ATS. Washington

can’t claim much pointspread success in PAC 10 play, posting a weak

1-7 ATS mark vs. conference opponents. The Huskies have also failed to

cover in 5 straight league affairs when a non-con foe is waiting in the

wings. The fact that UW’s star QB Jake Locker is nursing a sore hammy

(expected to play) all but wraps things up for Oregon, right? Not when

our excitement is tempered by this tidbit from our PLAYBOOK database:

DD conference road dogs in Game One are 25-13 ATS, including 12-4 if

they won 4 or more games last year. We may revisit this later…

Tulsa over UAB by 10

Tough to step in front of the defending C-USA champs here but Tulsa

must replace marvelous 4-year starter Paul Smith at quarterback

and it’s just not in our blood to lay 14 points on the road when our

side is plagued by a 450-yard defense – especially one with a new

QB! Meanwhile, the Blazers can’t waste time dwelling on last year’s

miserable 2-10 fi nish: they’ll face no less than 9 opponents in 2008

who were bowl-eligible the season before. UAB does welcome back

17 returning starters led by SR QB Joe Webb and Neil Callaway’s boys

did fi ght Tulsa tooth-and-nail in a tough 38-30 loss last year as 24-

point dogs. The Blazers are also at their best when taking points in

Birmingham against a league adversary, going 9-3-1 ATS lately. We may

not make a move on the home team here but we defi nitely won’t be

touting Tulsa, either.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

NEW MEXICO over Tcu by 3

We had considered going with Gary Patterson’s well-coached Frogs

here (covered 3 straight season openers) but with New Mexico

recently placed on a 3-year NCAA probation for recruiting and

academic violations, Rocky Long’s Lobos should bust through the

gate with an urgency to ‘get it done now’. Coming off a superb

9-4 season that included a 23-0 shellacking of Nevada in last year’s

New Mexico Bowl (Lobos’ fi rst bowl win in 46 years!), UNM can

improve head coach Rocky Long’s record as MWC underdog to

26-15 with a pointspread cover today. A closer look at the Horned

Ones reveals a tendency to perform much better at Fort Worth:

Patterson stands 22-15 ATS at home but sinks to a 17-24 spread

mark away from Amon G. Carter Stadium, including just 8-15 as

a road favorite. The Lobos should also be snarling over last year’s

37-0 humiliation by the Frogs, Long’s third consecutive loss to

Patterson. We’ll go with a pack of wild wolves to raise the ATS mark

of HD’s in season-opening conference games to a perfect 4-0.

Mississippi St over LA TECH by 12

‘Keep The Drive Alive’ should be ‘08’s mantra for MSU head coach

Sylvester Croom after he survived three 3-win seasons to lead the

Bulldogs to the promised land in 2007, capturing 8 wins and a rare bowl

victory over Central Florida. The most improved team in the rugged SEC

last year, Mississippi State will no longer have the element of surprise

in its favor but the Dogs may not need it with 15 starters returning, led

by SR QB Wesley Carroll. And though it may seem bizarre to see the

Starkville Bulldogs as road chalk, they’ve actually cashed in six of their

last nine in that role when taking on a non-con opponent. Our powerful

database provides immediate backup by noting that previous-season

bowlers bring home the bacon as road chalk in Game One non-league

clashes, posting a highly profi table 42-20-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, the

Ruston Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech are not so fortunate when it comes

to tackling an SEC foe, going 3-28 SU and 0-6 SU and ATS in the last

six meetings. With Croom’s team an amazing 23-2 ATS in its last 25 SU

road wins, the Starkville breed of bulldog should walk away with Best

In Show honors today.

Boston College over KENT ST by 10

For the fi rst time in four years, the Eagles will start the season without

1st team all-ACC quarterback Matt Ryan, now wearing the uniform of

the Atlanta Falcons. Besides Ryan’s 25-7 record as a starter, second-year

coach Jeff Jagodzinski must also deal with the loss of two 4-year running

backs, L.V. Whitworth and Andre Callender. Then, too, the ‘neutral’

game site at Browns Stadium is just a 30-mile jaunt north of the Kent

State campus. Even so, we’re not interested in a KSU squad that fl at-out

quit last year, staggering to an 0-7 SUATS fi nish. We also don’t intend

to crank up ‘Fly Like An Eagle’ before the kickoff, not with BC starting

green QB Chris Crane and their ACC opener with Georgia Tech lurking

on deck. We talked ourselves right out of this one… pass.

Oklahoma St over WASH ST by 10

Boomer Sooner may grab most of the headlines in Oklahoma but

believe us when we tell you these Cowboys from Stillwater are mighty

good. OSU QB Zac Robinson is quite simply the best athlete on the fi eld

in today’s contest, setting a school record last year with 3,671 yards

of total offense – and those numbers came against the 5th toughest

schedule in the land! No such luck for the Cougars as Bill Doba’s fourth

straight non-winning effort at Pullman resulted in his replacement

by former Eastern Washington head coach Paul Wulff (SMART BOX,

anyone?) The Cougs have not fared well in practice, either, losing six

starters over the past two injury-riddled weeks. Still, despite WSU’s

banged-up status, Okie State’s Mike “I’m a man, dammit!” Gundy has

struggled to a mediocre 5-10-1 ATS log away from home (1-3 SUATS

vs. non-Big 12 opposition). Subtle reminders like those will make us

think long and hard before we snap the rubberband on behalf of the

talented Cowboys today.

MINNESOTA over No Illinois by 11

When Minnesota committed one of the biggest choke-jobs in

postseason history by blowing a 31-point lead to lose 44-41 to Texas

Tech in the 2006 Insight Bowl, the Athletic Director overreacted by

immediately fi ring long-time head coach Glen Mason. BIG mistake:

new coach Tim Brewster presided over a nightmarish 1-11 debut – and

the sight of that 500 YPG defense favored by a TD over an NIU team

returning 20 starters here is downright puzzling. However, a visit to

our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3 makes us realize the big line might

actually be justifi ed. New Minnesota DC Ted Roof (Duke) fi gures to have

an immediate impact and the Golden Gophers WILL be an improved

commodity in ’08… just because they can’t get any worse! With the

Huskies managing just ONE SU WIN in 28 tries versus the Big 10, there’s

little doubt that Minny will snap its 10-game SU losing streak here.

As far as covering the number, we say “lay it if you play it.” Oh yeah,

did we forget to mention that Northern Illinois will be breaking in a

NEW head coach?

PITTSBURGH over Bowling Green by 8

The word out of Pittsburgh is that this year’s team is so talented not

even head coach Dave Wannstedt can screw things up. Or can he?

Wanny’s Panthers may not have a walk in the park here against the

BeeGees, a squad that’s loaded with 17 returning starters and owns a

5-1-1 ATS log in its initial road game of the season. Hey, we like 7-plus

win teams taking double digits from losers, a setup that’s cashed nine

of the last thirteen tickets in lidlifters. And even though Pittsburgh

has shown some pointspread success squaring off with the MAC (5-1

at home) and in Game One situations (4-1 L5), they’ll also be buckling

beneath the unfamiliar weight of high expectations from a host of

preseason pundits. Pitt could very well be this year’s surprise team in

the Big East but we’ll have to witness a few convincing sermons before

we go changing religions. Today doesn’t look like the day.

FLORIDA over Hawaii by 35

New Hawaii head coach Greg McMakin couldn’t have picked a worse

venue to begin his tenure with the Warriors. Not only will UH be taking

on another SEC team after getting demolished by Georgia in last year’s

Sugar Bowl, the boys from the pineapple patch must face off against

arguably the most bloodthirsty coach in America, Florida’s Urban Meyer.

After regressing by 11 points and 61 yards per game in ’07, we expect

the Gator stop unit to return to form this season, complimented by a

relentless offense that scored TDs on 47.3% of their possessions last

year (an SEC record). Heisman-winning QB Tim Tebow is back to face

ANOTHER rookie coach and with the Gators doing an ATS chomp on

10 of their last 12 non-con foes, we should go ahead and put Florida

on our ticket right now, huh? Maybe not… news from The Swamp

indicates that at least fi ve key players have been lost to practice injuries

and superstar WR Percy Harvin will not play. And since this has been

the biggest-moving line on the entire board, we’re not all that anxious

to follow the pack. Well watch for now.

Va Tech over EAST CAROLINA by 4

In last year’s season-opener between these two schools, the Hokies were

still trying to shake off the effects of an early-summer campus massacre

and struggled to a 10-point win over the feisty Pirates. However, unlike

that contest, today’s game shifts from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg to

Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium. Tech’s Frank Beamer is normally

a safe bet outside the conference but he’s currently riding a troubling

0-6 ATS streak against non-ACC foes. That stat plays right into the hands

of Skip Holtz at ECU, a 26-11 ATS whiz kid who’s covered an incredible

77% of his tries (17-5) as an underdog. The Pirates have also fared well

against the ACC lately, cashing in four of the last fi ve encounters. Word

is that Virginia Tech will continue to employ the same two-headed QB

attack of Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor, an approach that struggled

in its ‘07 meeting with the Bucs. Don your eyepatch and work up your

best “Yarghhhh” – we’re sailing aboard the Pirates ship here.

Missouri over Illinois by 3

A rematch of last season’s exciting opener in St. Louis where the Tigers

prevailed by a 40-34 fi nal, a game that launched both schools on the

path to an outstanding year and an appearance in a major bowl. Some

solid numbers put us immediately in the Illini corner: Illinois is 6-1 ATS

as a dog with non-con revenge, head coach Ron Zook is 14-5 ATS as a

dog with revenge and Big 10 pups are 10-3 ATS versus the Big 12 (10-3

taking 7 or more points). Two outstanding quarterbacks – Illinois’ Juice

Williams and Missouri’s Chase Daniel – return to do battle but Gary

Pinkel’s Tigers are carrying too much weight for our tastes… especially

since Missouri was outstatted in its ’07 win over the Illini. In what looks

to be a dead-even stalemate, we’ll opt to take the points.

4* BEST BET

Michigan St over CALIFORNIA by 7

Intriguing matchup between two promising teams that never

quite seem to ‘make it over the hump’. That just might change

in 2008 for Michigan State, our choice for ‘sleeper team’ in the

Big 10. All six Spartan losses in ’07 were by 7 or fewer points and

talented RB Javon Ringer is the most dynamic player on the fi eld

today. Hard-nosed SR QB Brian Hoyer compliments head coach

Mark Dantonio’s style, playing with passion and purpose, to a

tee. Dantonio also answers this week’s TRIVIA TEASER (see page

2). Cal owns a sorry 0-5 ATS mark at home before back-to-back

road games – plus the Bears can’t focus the week before taking

on Washington State, failing to cover in fi ve of the last six such

games. Worst of all, California is the ONLY team in the nation to

slip both offensively and defensively each of the last three years.

With experienced QB Nate Longshore losing his starting job to

SO Kevin Riley, the Bears may continue to slip, slide away.

Usc over VIRGINIA by 16

Even the most venomous Trojan-haters can’t deny that coach Pete

Carroll has done an astonishing job at USC: following a 6-6 debut in

2001, the eternally youthful Carroll has compiled a mind-boggling

70-8 record topped off by a pair of national championships. He’s

accomplished these feats by reloading instead of rebuilding. Even

though Southern Cal returns only 11 starters in ’08, they welcome back

18 players who own career starts (including LBs Rey Maualuga and

Brian Cushing, defensive MVPs of the last two Rose Bowls). Compared

to USC, the Cavs are a work in progress but head coach Al Groh still

boasts some mighty impressive ATS fi gures in these situations: 14-2 in

the fi rst of back-to-back homers, 12-2 as a home dog (3-0 outside the

ACC) and 28-14-1 at Scott Stadium. Whew! Trojans have two more weeks

to think about the Buckeyes so they shouldn’t be overly distracted but

the truth is they’re simply banged up at too many critical positions (QB

& RB) to be laying this kind of wood in a season-opener.

Clemson over Alabama by 3

This opening-Saturday showdown between two coaches under

immense pressure to win will be played at a much greater level of

intensity than most of the games on today’s schedule. In one corner we

have Nick Saban, who recently graced the cover of Forbes magazine

as ‘College Football’s Most Powerful Coach’ and in the other corner

we have Tommy Bowden, son of gridiron royalty, whose teams have

never quite lived up to their potential, winning just enough to land

a mid-tier bowl instead of basking in the BCS spotlight. The Tigers

race onto the Georgia Dome carpet ranked #9 nationally but with

only one starter returning to the offensive line, it may take a while

to untrack the ‘Thunder & Lightning’ RB tandem of James Davis and

C.J. Spiller. We harbor no great love for the Tide’s overpaid ‘Nictator’

but we must respect his 16-9 ATS record when placed in the role of

competitive underdog (6 or fewer points). No doubt the monkey will

be riding Clemson’s back here and overachieving ‘Bama could make

it feel like the proverbial 800-pound Gorilla by game’s end. Looks like

a fi eld goal photo-fi nish to us.

ARIZONA over Idaho by 24

The soaring temperatures in Tucson aren’t all due to the desert sun…

a great deal of the heat is being generated directly underneath the

rear end of Arizona coach Mike Stoops. While brother Bob’s success

story at Oklahoma gets annual rave reviews, Mike has failed on his

promise to deliver a winning season to the Wildcats during four

agonizing years. Lucky for him that we’ve pegged the Wildcats as this

year’s PAC 10 ‘sleeper’… but we won’t be jumping on the bandwagon

immediately. The lightly-regarded Vandals return 16 starters and a

super soph RB named Deonte Jackson, who’ll operate behind all fi ve

returning OL starters. With Stoops a less-than-inspiring 2-7 in his

UA career as a favorite (0-5 laying 5 or more points), we can’t bring

ourselves to lay this kind of lumber in a season-opener. Maybe when

the Desert Cats post a winning season record under Stoops, we’ll pay

closer attention.

UNLV over Utah St by 7

With both of these perennial losers dragging identical 2-10 ’07 records

into this tragedy, the best thing we can say here is that ONE of the

contestants will emerge with a rare SU win. With just 3 road wins in

3 years under Brent Guy, we pretty much know the SU winner of this

game WON’T be Utah State. But the Aggies do have a good shot at

cashing the ticket: they were 6-1 ATS last season away from Romney

Stadium and 15 starters have found their way back. That makes it

somewhat diffi cult to lay double digits with a team that’s won exactly

TWO GAMES each of the last four years and won by more than 7 points

just ONCE in their last 23 games! Throw in the fact that the Rebs will

more likely be thinking about next week’s MWC opener against mighty

Utah than the lowly Aggies and we’re thinkin’ Utah State, straight to

the window.

ADDED GAMES

INDIANA over W Kentucky by 17

It was a storybook season for the football Hoosiers in ’07: stunned

by the untimely death of head coach Terry Hoeppner, Indiana rallied

around new leader Bill Lynch and fi nished with a 7-6 record, including

IU’s fi rst bowl appearance since 1993. But with the ‘Hoeppner-cause’

now history, we’ve got the Hoosiers penciled in on our ‘fade list’

for 2008. Today’s tussle in Bloomington marks Western Kentucky’s

initial foray into Division 1 football – we don’t acknowledge the

NCAA’s ridiculous new label – and the Hilltoppers’ 12-year streak of

consecutive winning seasons looks to be in severe jeopardy this year

(opening the new season on the road in fi ve of their fi rst six games

certainly won’t help their cause). However, despite WKU’s lightweight

status, we can’t snap the rubber band on an Indiana squad that’s a

woeful 0-5 ATS lately as favorites of 14 or more points.

AUBURN over La-Monroe by 25

Tigers coach Tommy Tuberville (28-6 in conference play) refused

to stand pat in the off-season, hiring innovative OC Tony Franklin

from Troy and former Pitt DC Paul Rhoads. Tubs will also fi eld what

could be the best offensive line in America (all fi ve starters return)

in addition to the SEC’s top-ranked red-zone defense. Yes, the SU

outcome here is a slam-dunk but the Tigers have cashed in just

one of their previous fi ve season-openers and own an even worse

1-6 ATS mark when playing the fi rst of back-to-back home games.

Don’t forget that the Warhawks stunned the Tide at Alabama last

year and return 15 starters to a squad that’s held its own against SEC

opposition, covering 6 of 8 encounters. Monroe also owns a sterling

10-3 ATS record as road dogs over the previous two seasons. With

the visitors riding a strong fi nish from ’07 (won three of their fi nal

four games), we’re not overly anxious to lay this kind of lumber this

early.

SOUTHERN MISS over La-Lafayette by 7

After 18 years as head coach of the Golden Eagles (including 14 straight

winning seasons), Jeff Bower was mysteriously released in favor of

former Oklahoma State OC Larry Fedora. His season-opening opponent

may provide a stiffer test than anticipated: ULF will benefi t from the

return of star SR QB Michael Desormeaux and SR RB Tyrell Fenroy, the

only player to ever log three consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons.

C-USA favorites have not fared well lately against Sun Belters, posting

a money-burning 1-7 ATS mark and Southern Miss has covered only

ONCE in its last fi ve tries as home chalk, losing three of those games

SU. Plus, the PLAYBOOK database tells us that new head coaches laying

7 or more points in their fi rst game are a BAD investment: 20-32 ATS

since 1990. All of this doesn’t necessarily mean we’re enamored with

the Ragin’ Cajuns – we just don’t want to fade the ‘no new head coach’

advice dispensed by this week’s SMART BOX.

TEXAS over Fla Atlantic by 20

Emotions will be at a fever pitch in Austin as the Longhorns kick off

the new season against FAU. Why? Two weeks ago Florida Atlantic

head coach Howard Schnellenberger was actually quoted as saying,

“Texas is not that tough a team. They don’t play physical football.

If you keep hitting them hard enough, they’ll back down.” WTF?!?

You’d think a coach who’s been around the block as many times

as Howie wouldn’t make infl ammatory pregame statements like

that – unless, of course, he felt like he had the personnel to back it

up. Granted, FAU does return 18 starters including Sun Belt Player

of the Year Rusty Smith at quarterback but considering the Owls’

horrendous record as big dogs – 0-9 when taking 21 or more points

– even this talented lineup may not be enough to butt heads with

a pissed-off Bevo. However (and there’s always a ‘however’), the

problem for Texas backers is laying over three TDs with a team that’s

gone a mediocre 7-15 ATS in season openers (not to mention, too,

that FAU is a play from this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2).

Mack Brown and his ‘Horns of Renown may serve up a great big

helping of barbecued Owl tonight but the price on Texas is too steep

for our liking.

KANSAS over Florida Int’l by 32

While the Jayhawks’ superb run as the best pointspread team in the

nation last year (11-1 ATS) will convince most bettors to keep riding

Kansas, we’ve automatically put them on our ‘fade list’ for 2008. That

may seem foolish against a sacrifi cial lamb like FIU, a team so awful

that it barely avoided a winless campaign in ’07 by beating North

Texas in the season fi nale. And considering the Golden Panthers’

dreadful ATS numbers – 1-5 as dogs of 24 > pts and 1-5 on the road

vs. non con foes – bucking Kansas may appear downright suicidal.

However, our PLAYBOOK Database tells us that bowlers in their fi rst

game of the following season are just 7-13 ATS against an opponent

that logged only a single win the year before. Translation? KU’s highoctane

offense could take a few games to hit top speed and may not

be up to covering today’s astonomical number. Hold your nose and

take the generous points with FIU.

TEXAS A&M over Arkansas St by 16

What’s this? Another new head coach laying big wood in his debut?

Former Green Bay Packers head coach Mike Sherman makes his fi rst

appearance on the sidelines wearing Aggie Maroon and doesn’t

appear concerned that his team returns the fewest starters in the Big

12 this season. However, Sherman should be paying attention to the

fact that pesky Arkansas State has brought home the money in 13 of

its last 20 tries as underdogs of 24 or less points – and that the newlynamed

Red Wolves cashed four of fi ve recent season openers. With

A&M stumbling to a poor 0-5 spread mark in lined openers and the

SMART BOX warning us against untested coaches in this situation,

we’ll have to go the way of the Sun Belt once more. THIS JUST IN: A&M

stud RB Jorvorskie Lane has been listed as ‘questionable’ because of

lingering effects from a neck injury.

KANSAS ST over North Texas by 28

The much-ballyhooed hiring of Texas high school football legend

Todd Dodge turned into a bigger disaster than Hurricane Katrina

when UNT’s porous defense was fl ooded by an average of 486

yards and 45 points per game (gave up 74 points to Navy!). And a

depressingly bad season ended on an even worse note when the

‘Obscene Green’ got whipped 38-19 by previously winless FIU. Things

don’t look any more promising today: North Texas is 0-6 ATS versus

Big 12 opponents by an average losing margin of 47.5 PPG! In direct

contrast, Kansas State stands 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS when unbuckling

Sun Belters with an average win of 42 PPG! The Wildcats earned a

bowl berth in coach Ron Prince’s fi rst season but regressed to a 5-7

record in 2007. K-State needs a big start here to erase last season’s

bad memories and we think they’ll get it.

5* BEST BET

LOUISVILLE over Kentucky by 17

When does a 6-6 season feel worse than kissing your sister? When

you had a date with a Super Model and end up having to take sis

to a Hannah Montana concert, that’s when! For a team that has

National Title aspirations, last year’s 6-6 effort was bittersweet

for coach Steve Kragthorpe and the Cardinals. The biggest

problem was a defense that nose-dived nearly 100 YPG. To help

shore up the black hole, they promptly hired well-respected Ron

English as the new DC and Secondary Coach. One of the culprits

that kept UL home for the holidays last season was Kentucky

when the Wildcats banished the Cardinals in Lexington (as 5.5

point dogs). Beset with QB problems (Curtis Pulley tossed off the

squad for disciplinary reasons) and heavy graduation losses, the

Wildcats are the Kentucky Fried answer to this week’s BETCHA

DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2. Look for the host in this series

to improve to 5-0 ATS when Coach K opts to step on the pedal

early and often in this statement-making game today.

Colorado over Colorado St by 17

Normally in rivalry games our fi rst inclination is to make a case for

the avenging dog. However, word out of Fort Collins is the Rams

will be a dog without much fi ght this campaign. First year boss Steve

Fairchild replaces icon Sonny Lubick – minus the services of QB Caleb

Hanie (graduated) who led the MWC in passing effi ciency last season.

Aside from the SMART BOX angle at work our database reminds us

that bowlers who fi nished the season with a losing record (6-7) due

to a bowl loss are sharp plays in season-opening games. With Buffs’

head coach Dan Hawkins 43-16 ATS in straight-up wins, including

13-0 his last 13, we’ll roam with the Buffalo in Denver.

Monday, September 1

RUTGERS over Fresno St by 3

Our eyebrows raised when the preseason polls opened and the Bulldogs

landed a spot in the nation’s Top 25. No disrespect to Pat Hill but the

feeling here is they are not even the best team in their conference.

Hill has done a masterful job with this program, especially in games

outside the conference where he is 26-8-1 ATS. Despite the fact his

Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on weekdays, we respect his

ability to shine in non-conference clashes. While Rutgers may be down

a notch or two in ’08 the fact remains they are a well-coached squad

themselves with Greg Schiano on the sidelines. The Knights’ 6-1 ATS

mark as non-conference chalk, 6-1 ATS log in season openers and 5-1

ATS record in weekday games makes this a tough call.

Tennessee over UCLA by 4

The Volunteers may have lost 14 games the past three seasons but

they still own the best road record of all SEC teams (48-18) since

1992. QB Jonathon Crompton steps in for Erik Ainge knowing the

PAC 10 has had its way against Tennessee of late, going 5-1 ATS in

the last six showdowns. Adding fuel to the fi re is Vol head coach Phil

Fulmer’s decision to suspend starting defensive back Brett Vinson

and defensive tackle Donald Langley due to academic issues. On

the fl ip side, the Bruins have been college football’s BEST home dog

lately, going 8-0 ATS when taking points in Pasadena. They’re also 5-

0 ATS against the SEC and 8-1 ATS in lidlifters! However, before you

empty the vault, heed these words of caution: Rick Neuheisel’s newcoach

status makes him a SMART BOX liability and QB problems are

biting the Bruins (3rd-string Kevin Craft will be at the helm today).

Even so, the points look too good to pass up.