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Saturday, August 16, 2008

9:00 PM ET

1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)

DENVER -2 1/2 over Dallas

Two teams out for win #1 of the 2008 NLFX will meet up Saturday night, when the Broncos host the Cowboys in the second August warm-up outing for each squad.

Denver lost 19-16 at Houston in their preseason opener last week, while Dallas was upended 31-17 at San Diego.

Both starting QBs played well last week, although Tony Romo only threw 3 passes against the Chargers. The majority of the Dallas starters will play the first half of this preseason game against the Broncos; however, Romo, tight end Jason Witten, running back Marion Barber and wide receiver Terrell Owens will all take a seat after 1 quarter. This should turn the offense sluggish for the Cowpokes, as backup QB Brad Johnson, pushing 40, was an ugly 5-15 last week. Johnson's outing was so weak, Dallas owner Jerry Jones is wondering why he didn't grab another veteran QB in the offseason. Now, Dallas is sitting Romo down early to get some playing time for Johnson with the first-string offensive line.

One of our NFLX Handicapping strategies is to play AGAINST a team that is ignoring its strength to work on a weakness. During exhibition season it's common for a polished team to work on a weak spot, which is what the Cowboys are doing here with Johnson. A team such as Dallas simply doesn't need to work its strongest stuff while ignoring its weaknesses, which means we can expect the 'Boys to be much less less productive than usual.

This relates to another NFLX Handicapping Strategy of ours, which is:

Play AGAINST a team off a playoff season and/or with established veterans at most positions and few position battles going on, and that figures to be playoff bound again with basically the same team, especially early in the preseason.

Teams with most of their roster spots already filled usually lack quality free agent rookies. There simply aren't a lot of positions open on those type of teams, making them unattractive to the better free agents - the ones with options to go to more than one training camp. Vets hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless".

The Broncos, on other hand, have a lot to prove in the preseason off another season without a playoff appearance. Denver is relishing the opportunity to go up against the vaunted "America's Team" as was shown this week when the 2 teams scrimmaged together. The team that went 7-9 last season loved matching up against a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

"I don't think Dallas was used to that type of practice," Broncos cornerback Dre Bly said.

"Those guys finished 13-3 last year, so they probably can afford to relax in practice and coast their way through certain drills. Us, we were 7-9, so we're on the ground right now and we're trying to get back up that hill."

A year ago, the Cowboys physically dominated the Broncos in their preseason game at Dallas. The Broncos got so frustrated, some vented afterward that the 'Boys had broken unwritten NFL rules by blitzing too much for a relatively meaningless exhibition. Denver hasn't forgotten about that treatment and will be quite motivated here. Another NFLX Handicapping Strategy we use is: Play ON a team looking to prove themselves against a conference champion or Super Bowl favorite. Teams looking for a confidence-building victory will have extra incentive to play well and beat a Super Bowl caliber team.

It's never easy for a team to come into Denver and leave with a win, especially during the exhausting preseason. This is why we look to play AGAINST a sea-level visiting favorite or very small underdog at a stadium one mile or more above sea level when all factors indicate a close game. The air is considerably thinner at 4000+ feet in elevation than those below 1000 feet. With the oxygen level greatly reduced at higher elevations, the heart and breathing rates increase to compensate. This is experienced as shortness of breath and early fatigue. It takes about 10 days for the body to completely acclimate to altitude, so low-altitude teams making road trips to the Rocky Mountains simply don't have enough time to fully adjust.

This is why it's no surprise that Denver is a powerful 10-0-1 ATS at home in NFLX play when not favored by more than 4 points. We look for the Broncos starters to be very competitive with the Cowboys starters and for the home team to have the edge from there with a better QB rotation and stamina, leading to a SU & ATS win.

PROJECTED FINAL MARGIN: DENVER BY 7 OVER DALLAS

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