Elite XC 7/26
Lawler over Smith now 3u/1.4u - Same line as i got the first time around and same bet as watching the first fight only confirmed my analysis. Smith is a middle of the pack slugger in my opinion, while lawler is close to a top ten middleweight. This line is low, had been waiting to see if it drops as elite xc has done a good job hyping smith for this fight. I think lawler should have ended it in the first the first time around. Was a little hesitant. This time he does end it, late first or early second.
Smith does have KO power, but as i said the first time, SLawler has a chin and has only been KO'd once. Lawler should win this fight atleast 80% of the time, making this a significantly off line and hence a 3u play.
posted by terpkeg
1 replies
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Reis over Caraway 1.5/.9u (bookmaker) I saw Reis live in January, the guy seemed like a big 145er and looked real impressive getting the W. Last month Caraway cut down to 140 for his Strikeforce fight so i think Reis should have the size and strentgh advantage. Both man are grapplers but Reis is more decorated and experienced. Should be exciting fight, but with Caraway not displaying any KO power, I think he is on the short end of the bjj stick and the line should be -200.
posted by terpkeg
July 26 2008 6:55pm