FREE MLB Picks - Monday, July 21, 2008

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PRO INFO SPORTS debuted our MLB STAR SELECTIONS this second half of the 2008 season with a winning week, capped by a WINNER in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Game. We reveal that write-up below, followed by Monday's FREE MLB PICK.

SUNDAY JULY 20, 2008

MLB Selection

Game: Boston Red Sox (Wakefield) vs. LA Angels (Garland) 6:00 EST

Prediction: LOS ANGELES ANGELS -116 (Listed Pitchers)

Grade: THREE-Star (graded 1 to 6 units)

Analysis: The Halo’s play host to the Red Sox for the final game of their weekend series on Sunday night’s ESPN MLB Game of the Week. The Angels will be looking to get out their brooms and sweep this weekend series against the Red Sox.

The Red Sox will try to avoid their fifth straight road loss and their fifth straight defeat against the major league-leading Angels.

Boston (57-42) has the best home record in the majors, but its 21-31 mark away from Fenway Park is the league's worst among clubs with overall winning records.

After Saturday's 4-2 loss to the Angels, the Red Sox have now dropped nine of their last 11 on the road, scoring only 10 total runs during their current four-game road skid. They stranded 12 runners Saturday, one day after managing only five hits in an 11-3 loss.

Los Angeles (59-38) also took the last two games of a three-game set in Boston from April 22-24, turning the tables on the team that eliminated the Angels with a three-game sweep in last year's AL division series. A victory Sunday would clinch their first season-series win over the Red Sox since 2001.

With a four-game winning streak overall, the Angels have opened up an eight-game lead over Oakland atop the AL West the largest in any division in baseball. They've allowed just nine runs in their last four games after allowing that many in a 9-2 loss to Oakland July 11.

The Angels will send Jon Garland to the bump with his 8-6 record and 4.20 ERA. The Angels, who have won five of their last six games, are 39-16 at home against winning teams, 6-1 in their last seven home outings and 5-1 with Garland going against an A.L. East opponent.

Boston will send right-hander Tim Wakefield to the rubber with his 6-6 record and 3.60 ERA. Boston is 0-8 behind the knuckleballer on the road against winning teams, 1-10 overall with Wakefield facing winning teams and 1-6 in his last seven road starts. The Red Sox are also 2-9 in their last 11 road games including losing their last four and 3-10 against the A.L. West.

Wakefield has had a number of no-decisions on the road this year, going 1-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 11 starts, and he’s 9-11 with a 4.79 ERA in 27 career appearances against the Los Angeles Angels.

Data base research has solidified our position on the Angels in tonight’s contest. PLAY AGAINST any MLB team on the road after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks, 117-70 SU (+3540). PLAY AGAINST any MLB team on the road versus a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series, 75-33 SU (+3180). PLAY AGAINST any MLB team on the road and it is the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two, 62-27 SU (+3020). PLAY AGAINST any MLB team as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks, 50-17 SU (+2715). The Red Sox are 12-32 SU on the road versus a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $2120 when playing against. PLAY ON any MLB team after a win in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series, 119-87 SU (+2605). The Angels are 35-9 SU (+2385) at home when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start. The Angels are 29-8 SU (+1795) as a home favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start.

Our Pitcher Power Index Ratings show Jon Garland only allowing the Red Sox to plate 3.1 runs while Boston’s starter Wakefield gets touched for 5.4 runs in tonight’s contest. Our Team Power Index Ratings project a Halo’s win with a final score of 5 to 1 in Sunday’s MLB ESPN Game of the Week.

GRADED PREDICTION: 3* LOS ANGELES ANGELS -116

ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: LA ANGELS 5 BOSTON 3

MLB Baseball Pick - July 21, 2008

Sport/Type: MLB/FREE SELECTION

Game: Toronto Blue Jays (Litsch) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Liz) 8:05 EST

Prediction: OVER 10 (+100)

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

Analysis:

Baltimore plays host to the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night in the opening game of a four-game set between these two teams.

The Orioles have been competitive this season and that success has come in large part to their bullpen. Their bullpen has posted an ERA of 3.49 but overuse has depleted their effectiveness lately.

The last six games have seen only Olson and Guthrie pitch at least six innings in their outings. The lack of productivity from the Orioles starters has forced the relievers to pitch over 8 innings in just the last two games allowing five runs and eleven hits. They gave up two runs and four hits in 3 2/3 innings of work in a 5 to 1 loss to the Tigers on Sunday.

Baltimore will send Radhames Liz to the bump on Monday with his 3-2 record and 7.57 ERA. The right-hander is coming off the worst start of his brief career, allowing eight runs and six hits in 2 1/3 innings as Baltimore lost 12-1 to Boston on July 12. He's failed to go at least four innings in three of his eight starts, and has never pitched more than 6 1/3 in his career. Liz also has given up 12 runs in six innings while losing his last two starts.

Toronto will send Jesse Litsch to the hill with his 8-6 record and 4.16 ERA. Over his last two starts we see his ERA has skyrocketed to 10.13 while losing both starts.

After beginning the season 7-1, Litsch has won once in his last eight outings. The right-hander gave up eight runs three of those earned and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings as Toronto lost 9-4 to the New York Yankees on July 12. Litsch is 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in three starts against the Orioles.

Data base research supports our selection on the Over in tonightʼs contest between the Orioles and Blue Jays. Toronto is 4-1 Over their last 5 when their opponent allowed at least 5 runs in their previous game, 10-3 Over their last 13 versus the AL East, 8-3 Over their last 11 road games versus right-handed starters, 13-5-1 Over their last 19 versus right-handed starters overall. Baltimore is 10-2-2 Over versus the AL East, 22-6-3 Over their last 31 after suffering a SU loss, 10-3-1 Over their last 14 after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game, 23-7-1 Over their last 31 as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 19-7-1 Over their last 27 overall and Liz is 10-1 Over his last 11 starts overall. SERIES: 12-1 Over their last 13 overall and 5-1 Over their last 6 played in Baltimore.

Our Pitcher Power Index indicates Liz will allow the Blue Jays to plate 5.6 runs while Litsch gets touched for 6.1 runs in tonight's contest. Our Team Power Index Ratings predict an Over in tonightʼs game with a final score of Baltimore 7 and Toronto 5.

The combination of poor starting pitching and the Orioles bullpen struggling should be enough to send this game well over the posted total.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* TORONTO / BALTIMORE OVER 10 (+100)

Bet Wishes,

PRO INFO SPORTS