MMA WEEKEND UFC/AFFLICTION/DREAM
DREAM 5 - Alvearez over Kawajiri got +125 at 5D 1u.
I know Alvarez really wanted Kawajiri in the QF, he thinks he matches up well with him, and i agree. kawajiri does not want to bang with alvarez. imo alvarez is a younger, stronger, more athletic version of kawajiri. i have rode alvarez the whole tourney and have him at 11/1 to win it.
i think he may have a problem with aoki bc he almost got caught by hansen several times and aoki may get out of his fight w/ uno the fresher of the two, but we will see.
Should have more later in the week, keep an eye out for valesquez line.
posted by terpkeg
6 replies
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i feel like i just was robbed before even the fights are happeneing, running late this morning, didnt look at the lines, but am adding these no less.
valesquez over obrien 4u/2.3u - line opns even this morning, settle for -175, as this should be -300+. valesquez is a better wrestler, stronger and will end it in first imo.
maia over macdonald (ufc 87) 2u/1.3u -155 - this actually opened at +150!!!!! mac doesnt have ko power, cannot out grapple maia, will be subbed or stopped via gnp.
machida over silva/lil nog over dewees - 4u/2.4u - dont even want to get into how overrated silva is, will save it for another time and nog hasnt never been subbed, dewees sub fighter. machida actually opened -140, was -190 as i went to put in then moved to -260. lil no was sittin at -430 and in same time fram goes to -600. but still like odds here.
all at 5dimes
posted by terpkeg
July 17 2008 1:47pm -
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pyle over ambrose 1.5u/.5u - another off line imo, pyle seems focused now coming out of extreme couture and ambrose has had all his ights in small show in ca. hasnt anyone experienced.
posted by terpkeg
July 17 2008 1:56pm -
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I'm still looking but right now i got 2 dogs in Affliction and 1 dog and 1 favorite in UFC>>>>I'll post in the AM from work.
GL..I like the Pyle play a lot$$$ Hate the heavy juice in this sport..we need a run line$
posted by pc7588
July 18 2008 6:00pm -
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adding.....
Arlovski over Rothwell .5u/.2u
Alovski/Pyle .5/.4 - Arlovski has caught a little too much shit for his performances since the second sylvia fight. i think the chin thing is a little overrated and that his new more cautious fighting style is exactly what he needs to frustrate and pick apart rothwell. Rothwell says that all the pressure is on AA, but i think he is kidding himself. This is by far the biggest stage of his career, AA has been there before. I expected line would be -275 bc of public perception that AA is fading, but asctually think this fight is 75-80% for AA. At -220 right now at cris puts AA at 69%. I think this is low.
Franca over Edgar .5/.7 The layoff concerns me and I have also heard that Edgar has bulked up since fighting Maynard. However, I expect Franca BBJ will be able to somewhat neutralize Edgar wrestling, in terms of putting him in some dangerous positions from his back which could lead to some scrambles and stand ups. If this fight turns into a slugfest, i give it 65-35 to franca.
Total Card for weekend
Valasquez over Obrien 4u/2.3u (UFN)
Nogueira over Dewees (Aff) /Machida over Silva (UFC 89) 4u/2.4u
Pyle over Ambrose 1.5u/.5u (Aff)
Alvarez over Kawajiri 1u/1.2u (Dream)
Arlovski over Rothwell .5u/.2u (Aff)
Arlovski/Pyle .5u/.4u (Aff)
Franca over Edgar .5u/.7u (UFN)
Unfortunately, the Valasquez/Nog/Pyle lines moved significantely from the point i put my plays in, but i am very high on all three so if you have 5D and are looking for some action plays, may want to parlay Valasquez and Pyle. Nog at -1200 now is a waste. But i suggest keeping an eye on the Machida line as it opened at -140 went to -440 now back to -290. Just from watching Thiago Silva's 4 UFC fights I find him very overrated.
Dwval fight - Both fighter banged in the first, Silva seemed to take some punishment. Both fighters gassed horribly, crowd booed relentlessly, and Silva eventually ended it but i think it was more a product of exhuastion.
Irvin fight - Irvin got takedown, silva got up, irvin blew out knee. End of story.
Alexander - HA showed no ground game and gave up mount too easy. Didnt do much for me.
Mendez - Silva thrown a bone and almost got his head kicked off. Then recovered to beat a man who seemed undersized and at a significant size disadvantage.
I think Machida should be -450 or more. No reason to think his bbj isnt better and his strinking isnt crisper. Maybe im drinking too much Machida KoolAide but I tend to believe he is the best 205er in the world.
posted by terpkeg
July 19 2008 11:46am -
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Here's my thoughts and small plays:
With Affliction and UFC (the two I looked at and capped) there are so many damn favorites that have juice over 250..I tried to find the ones that had serious value so here's what I have for tonight:
Affliction Main Event:
I played 100.00 on Sylvia to upset Fedor earlier in the week. So many reasons for me to play on Sylvia at +285. ( The line i see now is 265)
1.) Fedor is hurt. It's not a rumor, it's confirmed. I really dug on this and honestly believe he's not 100%.
2.) Fedor really hasnt been tested. He outweighed an old Matt Lindland and still didn't look incredible. If the Law had been close in weight, he might have caught him. But since that fight, Fedor has been too worried about money and not enough about fighting. Well guess what, he got the money, let's see how he does against a man that can strike. Sylvia can catch Fedor, I still think the Maine-iac is one of the better strikers at Heavyweight when he decides to toss the leather.
Sylvia's not a fighter I like, so it's hard to bet on him, but I really do think he has a shot tonight.
1 unit to win 2.85 units
BEST BET: I'm against ya Terp. I think Hermes is gonna get lit up. Frankie Edgar is a good fighter, not just a wrestler. His striking is legit and it showed in the Fisher fight, a very good striker. I don't thank Hermes can take him down and if he's not on the juice, does he have the pace to roll with Frankie
3.0 (-150) units to win 2 units on Frank Edgar over Hermes Franca.
UPSET SPECIAL: Jessie Taylor is gonna destroy CB Dolloway tonight.
1.5 units to win 1.8ish units.
**Dolloway has fought A LOT this year. Taylor's eager to please his master Dana White. I think Taylor Ground and pounds the decision in the 2nd on a gassed CB.
posted by pc7588
July 19 2008 7:35pm -
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Weekend Total 5-1 +4.1u
Pending.....
Nogueira over Dewees (Aff) /Machida over Silva (UFC 89) 4u/2.4u
Good weekend for me as Nogueira, Pyle and Valesquez all one early in the first. Cain looked great in his domination of Obrien.
Arlovski looked great. Fight of Night in Affliction imo. Like to see Barnett next.
As for Alverez, happy with the win over Kawajiri, great fight. If you havnt seen it you need to youtube it ASAP. However, left in disappointment as the doctors wouldnt let him continue. I think he woulda KO'd Aoki just as Hansen did.
So my 11/1 on Alvarez goes down the tube. I also had Aoki at 2.6/1 after first rd to win it as i saw him as the biggest threat to alverez. So i go from garunteed profit in the final and possibly a +10u banger to a -2u. But what are you going to do, the tourney was great as a whole and i look forward to more DREAM.
Again, check out Alverez/Kawajiri, fight was a slugfest.
Good call on Edgar PC. Franca did hurt him but his bbj wasnt enough to nuetralize edgars wrestling like i had hoped.
Tough breal on JT as i think the illegal knee had more of an effect on the outcome than it seemed. That knee hit him right on the button and he let himself slip up and get caught soon after.
posted by terpkeg
July 21 2008 1:28pm