KENTUCKY DERBY 2008 (Saturday)
Get ready boyz... been watching this field all spring...
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/contenders [kentuckyderby.com]">http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/contenders [kentuckyderby.com]>
BACK THIS WEEKEND!
posted by southern5061
30 replies
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It's that time Southern ---
Slam get your data together and get in here and post
Time to cash a big one
Anyway Southern --- Gayego and Recapturetheglory were 2 horses that I checked out last week that I thought had some VALUE
Will be posting TH or FRI
SLAM - I am serious - I would love to see any data that you have like the stuff you had a couple of years ago
GL
posted by drtnapper07
April 29 2008 4:37pm -
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.
Not just Slam --
Also - Wardawg Sundaybreak Gyphin Nystrooper Snowflake
Let's get a winner here
posted by drtnapper07
April 29 2008 4:51pm -
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Nystrooper still owes me $20!!! so he cant post till he pays!!! haha
hope he is OK!
posted by southern5061
April 29 2008 11:14pm -
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"southern5061":12dtb827
Nystrooper still owes me $20!!! so he cant post till he pays!!! haha
hope he is OK!
NYSTATETPOOPer busted his leg and couldn't pay up the fitty!!!!
Southern, you better have something better than that come August when it will be impossible for the SPUNKEES to catch the Sox!!!!
posted by thebigmessy
April 30 2008 2:08am -
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What's up fellas$$$ I've still got alot of studying to do but right now I am leaning towards Colonel John. That performance at the Santa Anita Derby was no joke and I think he will love the distance. I also am a big fan of Garrett Gomez as a top jockey. From what I've read he had a great workout on the Churchhill dirt on Sunday too. All factors are starting to point his way for me.
Two longshots that I am also considering using in my exotics are Z Fortune and Monba. Z Fortune looked terrific in the Arkansas Derby and probably would have won if he had not given up so much ground early in the race. Monba nipped fellow Pletcher entry Cowboy Cal at the Blue Grass and has won before at Churchill.
Like I said these are only my early leans and I will post my actual picks later this week. Just wanted to through this out there and see what some others are thinking.
By the way, where's the local Philly horse this year?
posted by gyphin
April 30 2008 11:20am -
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.
DERBY UPDATE --
Bad News for Big Brown Fans, as he is 15th in l
ine in choosing his post position
Eight Belles got a good draw and WILL RUN in the
Derby vs 19 Boys
For those of you who cannot wait for the
Post Position Draw at 5 PM tonight
Here are PPs for the contenders and the latest Derby Watch Sheet --
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/watch/derbywatch_042508.pdf [drf.com]">http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/200 [drf.com] ... 042508.pdf
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/pps/Derby_Top_36.pdf [drf.com]">http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/200 [drf.com] ... Top_36.pdf
Here is the link that will get you the Kentucky Derby PPs with their
proper post positions (This will be available some time Wednesday
Evening/Night -
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/pps/kentuckyderby08.pdf [drf.com]">http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/200 [drf.com] ... erby08.pdf
Again - The above link will not work until later tonight
.
.
posted by drtnapper07
April 30 2008 2:29pm -
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I'm liking PYRO!
posted by hilly
April 30 2008 10:35pm -
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Earning in graded races
Z Fortune...329,000
Gayego......640,000
Big Brown...600,000
Pyro...1,020,000
Col John....720,000
Tale of Ekati..738,000
Z Humor...579,000
Cool Coal Man...212,767
Kodiak Kowboy..441,373
Monba...515,000
Adriano....310,000
Smoth Air...290,000
Court Vision...331,872
Recapturetheglory...300,000
Anik Nakai..212,216
Cowboy Cal...207,660
Visionaire...202,500
Big Truck..194,500
Bob Black Jack..180,000
posted by hilly
April 30 2008 10:37pm -
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Gents - my entire "early" card for this Saturday (Derby Day). Best Bets are in BOLD. As usual, my least favorite race of the day is the Derby itself. SOOOOO hard with a 20 horse field. Even if you pick a solid runner, you're at the mercy of what the other 19 do in the field. That said, I feel I have a nice pick in Recapturetheglory @20/1 early odds.
Here are the last 4 races for Recapturetheglory:
Ran 1st 04.5.2008 Illinois Derby (GII)
Led from the start, extended lead in stretch, easy win
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/924 [kentuckyderby.com]">http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/924 [kentuckyderby.com]>
Ran 3rd 02.29.2008 Allowance - Fair Grounds
Up and on the pace early, outkicked late
Ran 2nd 11.3.2007 Allowance - Churchill Downs
Set the pace, skimmed the rail, second best
Ran 1st 09.29.2007 Maiden Special Weight - Hawthorne
Stalked soft early pace, ran down leader in stretch
What I like seeing is twofold:
1) This horse likes to get out early and set a decent pace. This is huge in the Derby... more than any other race. Cant get stuck behind a crowd with 20 horses running.
2) this horse may be known as a fast starter, but also has a serious kick. Did you watch the video from the Illinois Derby (above) run a month ago. WOW. Not only set the early pace, but won by a mile with a late charge and even more in the tank.
Ill take my chances here at any odds in the double digits come Saturday.
RECAPTURETHEGLORY – reports from camp...
“The last couple of days he’s been just spectacular,†the New Orleans native said. “He’s gotten just a tad bit better every day the last few days.â€
Roussel said the track has tightened since they arrived a few weeks ago and that Recapturetheglory has appreciated the firmer footing.
and away we go..... updates may come thru Sat AM....
Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 3rd, 2008
Race 1 - #4 Biker Boy (KY) 7/2
Race 2 - #3 Bella Roja (KY) 10/1
Race 3 - #9 Forest Attack (KY) 10/1 *
Race 4 - #4 Screen To Screen (FL) 3/1
Race 5 - #4 Junior College (KY) 5/1
Race 6 - #5 Informed Decision (KY) 4/1 *
Race 7 - #7 Bayou's Lassie (FL) 12/1
Race 8 - #9 Intangaroo (KY) 12/1
Race 9 - #8 Artiste Royal (IRE) (IRE) 5/1
Race 10 (Derby) - #18 Recapturetheglory (KY) 20/1
Race 11 - #8 Manager Boire (KY) 6/1
Race 12 - #10 Quiet Mover (KY) 10/1
posted by southern5061
April 30 2008 11:37pm -
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Not a ton of time right now but I'll try and get in here before saturday.
Right now my top 4 in the order I like are.
Pyro
Zfourtune
Bob Black Jack
Tale of Ekati
this is with a quick skim of a knock system i usually play the derby on.
posted by slam
May 1 2008 2:38am -
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.
First thing I like to do when I cap the Derby is get the Pretenders off my
sheets and eliminate half of the field or more --- I do not have the time to
explain why I have eliminated these, but the eliminations are:
(2) Tale of Ekati
(3) Anak Nakal
(4) Court Vision
(7) Big Truck
(8 ) Vissionaire
(11) Z Humor
(12) Smooth Air
(14) Monba
(15) Adriano
(16) Denis of Cork
(17) Cowboy Cal
The bubble horses that I am concerned about are the 8, 12, 16 & 17, as
one of these could bite.
NOW - I only have 9 horses to cap as I have eliminated 11 of the 20.
Group One - The Studs with proven Dirt Status
(20)Big Brown -
What's not to like - Well Maybe the #20 slot? - But that may not be a
problem for this guy.
(19) Gayego -
This guy fired well from the transition of Poly to Dirt. One reason to be
worried about the Group Three guys. Should have more stamina than
Z Fortune who actually outraced him last time out.
(18 ) Recapturetheglory -
Well, Andrew Beyer (The Speed Rating Guru) said the IL Derby actually
came in at a 110 and he lowered it to a 102 on his judgement call. I can
respect that, but does anyone remember War Eblem? I know Southern
does!!! - I like this pick also.
(6) Z Fortune -
Lost distance to Gayego going four wide in both turns. Starting Position is
better than Gayego's though. Stamina may be the knock, but gotta love
the jockey.
Group Two - Possible Studs with proven Dirt Status
(9) Pyro -
Why in the world did they take this coly off of dirt onto Poly in the last?
Makes it harder to figure this colt out.
(5) Eight Belles
Okay not really a stud -- But, the Bitch is here against the boys for a
reason. Very well seasoned on the dirt, but never more than 1-1/16. If
she can get that cunt in front of the boys, does anyone really want to pass
her. Smells pretty good back here.
(1) Cool Coal Man
Another colt that went off the dirt and failed on the Poly in his last. WTF -
Again, makes it difficult to cap.
Group Three - Studs with NO Dirt Status
(10) Colonel John -
Damn California and the artificial tracks. Big question here will the colt
take to the real surface? Very likely that he will.
(13) Bob Black Jack -
Damn California and the artificial tracks. Big question here will the colt
take to the real surface and more so than CJ above?
Okay - There is my initial take -
Could you imagine a 20-19-18 Trifecta????
Anyway, I will have my final analysis tomorrow
GL Bitchas
.
.
posted by drtnapper07
May 1 2008 3:29pm -
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..
Hey Slam --
You have any write-ups like 2005? - See Link Below
http://www.gotpicks.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1454 [gotpicks.com]">http://www.gotpicks.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1454 [gotpicks.com]>
That was awesome data brother - Would love to see that shit on this race.
--- Dirt
posted by drtnapper07
May 1 2008 3:37pm -
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Any one who knows of or has heard of Ragozin Sheets might be interested in this. For the Derby they list spots for the horses running, A, B , and C.
A. For win #9, #11, #16, #20
B. exotics #1, #4, #7, #8, #14
C. Toss outs #2,#3,#5,#6,#10,#12,#13,#15, #17,#18, #19
Not to use Brown #20 as a key, too short a price.
they always seek value and horses they think will move foreward.
posted by hilly
May 2 2008 4:38pm -
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Beyer's Opinions
Picking Favorite Will Be Mistake
By Andrew Beyer
The Washington Post
"This is not a tough horse race," trainer Rick Dutrow says of the 134th Kentucky Derby, and he is correct in the sense that there is not much formidable competition for his colt Big Brown. The favorite has won all three of his starts with ease, earning superior speed figures, and none of his rivals has a record remotely comparable. In an ordinary race, a horse with such credentials might look unbeatable.
But the Derby is no ordinary race, and it is always a tough one, requiring horses to run 1 ¼ miles amidst the chaos of a 20-horse field — something they will never again do in their lives. History indicates that horses must have sufficient seasoning to handle the unique stress of the race.
A horse ought to have raced at least five times in his career to be ready for the Derby. No horse with fewer than five starts has earned a blanket of Derby roses since Exterminator in 1918. Thirty have tried and failed.
So even though Big Brown owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the Derby field, I am throwing him out Saturday. But even eliminating the favorite doesn't clarify this Derby. The race is filled with unknowns, because of one almost indecipherable factor: synthetic surfaces.
Of the 20 Derby entrants, nine made their last starts on synthetic tracks. Two have never raced on anything but synthetics. What should handicappers make of horses such as Monba and Adriano, who won important stakes on Polytrack after poor performances on dirt? What do we do with Pyro, who ran terribly on Keeneland's Polytrack after looking like a potential star on dirt?
Because of the newness of synthetics, there isn't much historical evidence to make judgments. But it is clear that racing on dirt and racing on synthetics are different games, and most horses prefer one to another. So it is reasonable to disregard any horse who has made his reputation on a synthetic track without showing that he can win a stakes on dirt. Put an X over Monba, Adriano, Cowboy Cal, Bob Black Jack and Colonel John.
This is a weak crop of 3-year-olds. In a typical year, the eventual Derby winner will come into the race showing that he can run a Beyer Speed Figure in the 105-to-110 range. In this year's lineup, Big Brown's 106 is the best, and only six horses have ever earned a triple-digit figure.
Two of these six are Gayego and Z Fortune, who finished 1-2 in the Arkansas Derby. Both earned their numbers honestly; Gayego dueled hard for the early lead; Z Fortune rallied after being parked wide on both turns. For both of them this was a career-best race, and some handicappers will reject a horse who has peaked in his most recent start.
Pyro comes into the Derby after the worst race of his life — his dismal showing on Polytrack. There's not much history to support the chances of a horse who finished 10th in his final prep race. Yet Pyro is one of only two colts in the field — the other being Big Brown — who have demonstrated exceptional talent.
This is a colt whose running style always seemed made to order for the Derby, and he had been the favorite in future betting until his Polytrack debacle. Now he is discredited, but he remains the lone horse in the field with both the raw talent and the racing experience that are usually necessary to win the Derby. My selections: 1. Pyro. 2. Z Fortune. 3. Gayego.
posted by hilly
May 2 2008 4:41pm -
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Sticking with my boy for the Derby
#18 Recapturetheglory
$20 Win
$20 Place
$100 Show
Good luck to all....
I also have $50 WPS on my two best bets above.
posted by southern5061
May 3 2008 10:52am -
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My time to pickride...so far on my pickride card:
To win: 50.00 on #18 (Recapture the Glory-Southern)
To win: 100.00 on #9 (Pyro-Hilly0
To win: Drtnapper 100.00
Tri Box:
Southern's Pony, Hilly's Pony, Drt's pony, and Slam's or Trooper's Pony.
hook a brother up..and let's ride$$$
posted by pc7588
May 3 2008 12:50pm -
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Playin with a few early..this one goes in minutes. 3 horse in the 5 race, WPS. GL
posted by hilly
May 3 2008 1:24pm -
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"hilly":3eu1zjaz
Playin with a few early..this one goes in minutes. 3 horse in the 5 race, WPS. GL
Placed, small profit but still profit.
posted by hilly
May 3 2008 1:33pm -
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Southern is the man
won on 7th race thanks hit the super.
posted by kellysguns
May 3 2008 3:17pm -
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Yup I hit er also, 7 in the 7. $26.20 for the win
posted by hilly
May 3 2008 3:27pm -
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.
Big question is whether Pyro re-fires comin back to
dirt & whether Colonel John fires on his first time on
the dirt.
I still like the 18 & 19
My play is
18/19 HUGE PAYOUT EXACTA
&
9,10-18,19 MODERATE PAYOUT EXACTA
Prediction -
Colonel John - Gayego
posted by drtnapper07
May 3 2008 3:34pm -
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ON the 7th missed out on the exa for 50 box with the 9 how f ing mad am I. Watching a little and didn't get it in time. was typing it in and the race went off.
posted by kellysguns
May 3 2008 3:38pm -
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8 race I played an exacta box on the 5 and the 1. GL
Also have the 5 to WIN/Place
posted by hilly
May 3 2008 3:41pm -
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Hit again in the 8th with the 9 just missed the super
posted by kellysguns
May 3 2008 4:08pm -
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Sure did. Way to go
posted by hilly
May 3 2008 4:09pm -
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Final card:
Pyro WP
Pyro +165 H2H vs Big Brown
Exacta Box 9,10,20
Just can't see this Big Brown working his way from the rake and still having enough to win. All the talent in the world but I see a worn down horse finishing 3rd.
GL everyone.
posted by hilly
May 3 2008 5:55pm -
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hit nicely on my race 7 and 8 with the two 12/1's
tough run in the derby, my 47/1 horse finished 4th i do believe.
till next time.....
posted by southern5061
May 3 2008 7:16pm -
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The UPS horse is for real, WOW!
posted by hilly
May 3 2008 7:31pm -
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yup...he's a nice horse.
but you'll never see me bet on a 3/1 shot in the derby....no way...not with 20 running.
see yall in a couple weeks.
posted by southern5061
May 3 2008 11:17pm