SUPERBOWL OPINIONS
Fellas I just wanted to see what everyone's opinion on the game is.
Lets get something started fellas. Maybe by the weekend we've all found out who will win as well as cover the spread.
To be honest with all I'm leaning towards PAT minus the pts right now. I'm waiting to book this one though. I believe the pts will drop more as more and more bet on the Giants.
Please chime in fellas.
$$$
posted by close_call
48 replies
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0 likes
The underdog usually has the edge in the first quarter, as they are flying around and going full tilt from the opening kickoff. The underdog has not trailed in the last six Super Bowls. A better indication of the eventual outcome would be the halftime score. Here the team winning or tied after 30 minutes has gone on to win 21 of the last 24 Lombardi Trophies’. Additionally, these 21 winners are 15-4-2 ATS.
New England is 1-8 ATS off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite, with the Giants 9-2 ATS away from Giants Stadium this season. It’s interesting to note only twice in the last 20 years has a team that won the Super Bowl failed to cover Conference Championship contest."
posted by hilly
Jan. 28 2008 9:49am -
0 likes
Phil Steele's Superbowl Formula
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SuperBowl Super System - Northcoast
Points Category
10.0 Award 10pts if a team has WON a Super Bowl in the past THREE years
8.0 Award 8pts to any team whose OPPONENT is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history
8.0 Award 8pts to any team that has allowed fewer defensive rushes
7.0 Award 7pts to the team with the better SU win/loss record
7.0 Award 7pts to the team with the most offensive rushes
5.0 Award 5pts to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry
4.0 Award 4pts to the team that has the best net kick-punt TD returns
4.0 Award 4pts to the team with the better ATS record
4.0 Award 4pts to the team that has the superior NET penalty yards
3.5 Award 3.5pts to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt
3.5 Award 3.5pts to the team that has given up the fewer points
3.5 Award 3.5pts to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing TD's
3.0 Award 3pts to the team that has the most sacks
2.5 Award 2.5pts to the team with fewest offensive pass attempts
2.0 Award 2pts to the team that has the best NET punts (total) on the year
1.5 Award 1.5pts to the team with the best average per offensive rush
1.0 Award 1pt to the team with the best completion percentage
and the answer is.............................
New England is the Super Bowl System Play
14 Point Play (Which is the 4th lowest Point play in the systems history)
posted by phantom
Jan. 28 2008 2:24pm -
0 likes
NY GIANTS are 43-25 UNDER (+15.5 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 17.4, OPPONENT 18.7
NY GIANTS are 22-9 UNDER (+12.1 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 17.2, OPPONENT 18.6
NY GIANTS are 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) in road games when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY GIANTS 18.9, OPPONENT 19.4
NY GIANTS are 35-17 UNDER (+16.3 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 17.5, OPPONENT 18.6
NY GIANTS are 38-21 UNDER (+14.9 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 total yards since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 17.0, OPPONENT 16.2
NEW ENGLAND is 36-18 UNDER (+16.2 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 total yards since 1992.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 19.1, OPPONENT 15.5
posted by hilly
Jan. 28 2008 3:38pm -
0 likes
NE has been horrendous ATS in the 2nd half and playoffs. The only worse team was the Ravens.
Giants have been a great road team, great ATS in recent history.
Everyone's bets the Pats thinking their due. This is what I think about streaks.
You can bet with the streak and lose only once.
Or, you can bet against the streak and win only once.
I'm taking the Giants +12.
posted by sherlock37
Jan. 28 2008 4:39pm -
0 likes
As of right now I see:
Sportsinsights
67% on Giants ATS
68% on Giants ML
Covers.com
62% on Giants
38% on Pats
6:30 PM ET W/L ATS H A AF AA O/U
N.Y. Giants 13-6 13-6-0 3-5 9-1 23.2 21.2 9-10-0
New England 18-0 10-8-0 10-0 8-0 35.6 17.0 11-6-1
Some other trends:
Under is 13-5-1 in NE last 19 playoff games.
NE are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
NE are 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.
You guys think the public will win this one? Biggest game of year for most bettors?
I appreciate all the input so far fellas...lets keep them coming. I just don't want us to over think this one also.
$$$
posted by close_call
Jan. 28 2008 6:24pm -
0 likes
Six quick, random thoughts on the Super Bowl
-- Patriots are 3-0 in Super Bowls under Belichick, but won all three games by a field goal.
-- New England is 12-point favorite; they were 12-point dog in their first Super Bowl win, against the Rams.
-- Belichick and Tom Coughlin coached together with the Giants from 1988-1990.
-- Don't forget, when Giants led New England 26-14 in the second half Dec 30, before losing 38-35, when Randy Moss got loose for some long passes in fourth quarter.
-- Eli Manning played college football in the SEC, where games against Alabama, LSU, Auburn are treated like the Super Bowl and Mardi Gras rolled into one. He'll do fine.
-- Must respect Patriots' 18-0 record, the best record ever in the NFL, to this point. Its going to take a supreme effort to beat them; they've taken everyone's best shot so far.
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posted by phantom
Jan. 28 2008 7:17pm -
0 likes
NFL
Dunkel Index
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
The Super Bowl features a rematch of Week 16 when the Giants gave New England a scare before losing (38-35). New York rode the motivation from that performance to three straight road wins in the playoffs, extending their road winning streak to 10 games. The Patriots continue to win, but not in the impressive fashion of earlier in the season and come into the game 0-5 ATS in their last five contests. The Giants are the underdog pick (+12) according to Dunkel, which has New England favored by only 9. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+12). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 3
Game 101-102: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.052; New England 146.340
Dunkel Line: New England by 9; 49
Vegas Line: New England by 12; 54
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+12); Under
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NFL
Long Sheet
Super Bowl XLII
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Sunday, February 3
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NY GIANTS (13 - 6) vs. NEW ENGLAND (18 - 0) - 2/3/2008, 6:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
NY GIANTS are 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Short Sheet
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Sunday, February 3
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Super Bowl XLII
TV: FOX
NY Giants vs. New England, 6:20 ET
NY Giants:
9-2 ATS in road games
8-2 ATS as an underdog
New England:
2-8 ATS off 8+ wins
1-8 ATS off a SU home win / ATS loss
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NFL
Sunday, February 3
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Tips and Trends
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New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Super Bowl XLII (FOX | 6:30 PM ET)
New York is trying to become the 2nd team in NFL history to win all of its playoff games on the road and then hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy, following the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XL. The Giants have won 10 straight away from home, going 9-1 ATS, with the lone loss coming in a 13-10 victory against Miami in London back on October 28th. EDGE: GIANTS
The Patriots are going for the 1st 19-0 season in NFL history and are already the 1st team to start 18-0. However, after covering their 1st 8 games of the regular season, they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10, including 0-2 in the playoffs with a nearly identical spread as this one. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. EDGE: GIANTS
These teams met in the regular-season finale, which the Giants used as a springboard to the Super Bowl. Some questioned whether or not they would be mentally and physically drained after playing the Patriots hard when they had nothing on the line, but instead they gained a ton of confidence. Quarterback Eli Manning even admitted after winning the NFC Championship that playing competitively against New England in a playoff-type atmosphere is one of the main reasons they earned a rematch in the Super Bowl. EDGE: GIANTS
Manning continues his growth and maturity for the Giants with 8 touchdown passes and just 1 interception in his last 4 games. Ironically, that pick came against the Patriots, who were burned by 4 TD passes as well, 2 of which went to Plaxico Burress. While Manning's development has been crucial, New England QB Tom Brady is clearly in a league of his own as he goes for his 4th Super Bowl title in 4 attempts. Brady has been named Super Bowl MVP twice and is coming off the best regular season of any QB in league history with an NFL-record 50 touchdown passes. EDGE: PATRIOTS
New England is definitely seeing the benefit of a healthy Laurence Maroney, who remains as fresh as any running back the NFL has ever seen in the playoffs. Maroney was very limited for a majority of the regular season, sitting out 3 full games and carrying the ball 15 times or less in 9 other games. Maroney had scored just 2 touchdowns in the 1st 13 games of the regular season, but he has scored at least once in each of the last 5 - scoring 6 total during that stretch - including 2 in the regular-season finale against the Giants. He has rushed for 122 yards in each of the team's 2 playoff games so far on a combined 47 carries. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTS
Patriots are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 40-19-3 ATS in ther last 62 games on grass.
The UNDER is 13-5-1 in New England's last 19 playoff games.
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NFL
Recent Trends
Sunday, February 3
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NFL Recent Trends
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N.Y. Giants (13-6) vs New England (18-0)
New England:
Under is 13-5-1 in NE last 19 playoff games.
NE are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
NE are 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.
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NFL
Sunday, February 3
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NFL In Depth Trends
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Trends – New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher.
Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.
ATS Trends
N.Y. Giants
Giants are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
New England
Patriots are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
O/U Trends
N.Y. Giants
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 playoff games.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games on grass.
Under is 44-19-2 in Giants last 65 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
New England
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games on grass.
Under is 4-1-1 in Patriots last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-1-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall.
Under is 13-5-1 in Patriots last 19 playoff games.
Over is 9-4-1 in Patriots last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
Head to Head
No trends available.
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NFL
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NFL – 5 Statistics
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Five Super Bowl stats you should know
With all the hype about this year’s Super Bowl it’s going to be relatively easy to find the obvious betting statistics, like against the spread and over/under records between the Pats and the Giants.
To give bettors a greater edge in their Super Bowl betting, we’ve gone back through 20 years worth of statistics to bring you a few nuggets of information that could help you make some money.
1. Big favorites have mixed results
The Patriots are hefty 12-point favorites to beat the Giants, which is not surprising for a team that is 18-0. But how have big favorites fared against the spread in past Super Bowls?
Favorites of seven points or more have gone 7-6-1 against the spread in the Super Bowl since the 1986 season, while faves of 10 points or more have gone 4-3-1. Ironically, the biggest spread over that time came in the 2002 clash between St. Louis and New England. The Rams were 14-point favorites, but ended up losing 20-17 to the Pats.
In their next two Super Bowl appearances, the Patriots were seven-point favorites. But they failed to cover on both occasions, beating the Panthers by three in 2004 and the Eagles by three in 2005. In fact, the Pats have been to five Super Bowls in 21 years, but have covered just once.
2. NFC wins battle of the East
Recent history is on the Giants’ side if you look back at Super Bowl matchups between teams from the AFC East and the NFC East.
In the five contests between teams from those divisions in the past 20 years, the NFC East teams are 4-1 straight and 5-0 against the spread, with three of those games going over the total. The Giants were involved in one of those battles, beating the Buffalo Bills 20-19 in 1991.
But the only AFC East team to hand an NFC East franchise a Super Bowl loss over that time was the New England Patriots. They beat the Eagles 24-21 in 2005.
3. Giants home record sets a record
The Giants set an unwanted record this season, becoming the only team in history to make football’s showpiece game, despite having a losing home record.
New York went 3-5 at home this season, losing to Green Bay, Dallas, Minnesota, Washington and New England at Giants Stadium. They lost to the Packers and Dallas by a combined 33 points in those home losses, but it’s worth noting that they defeated both teams on the road in the playoffs.
The home loss to New England will also be a source of encouragement for the Giants. They were only the third team this season to take a lead into the final quarter against the Patriots (28-23), but ended up losing 38-35 because of Tom Brady’s pinpoint passing under pressure.
4. Don’t overlook the total
There have only been five Super Bowls in the last 20 years with a total of 50 or more, with two of them going over the total and the other three going under. The Patriots were involved in one of those games – their 2004 win over Carolina went over the 53-point total.
Of more relevance are the total trends in recent matchups between the Pats and the Giants. Three straight meetings between these teams have gone over, but the totals only ranged from 35 to 46 ½ over that period.
In fact, the 53 ½-point spread between the New England and New York is the highest in well over 10 years and is likely the reaction of oddsmakers to the offensive shootout these teams produced in their last meeting.
5. Successful road teams in the Super Bowl
The New York Giants have won 10 straight road games (a single season record), including three straight in this season’s playoffs. Only five wild-card teams since 1970 have reached the Super Bowl.
The two most recent were the 1986 New England Patriots and the 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots went on to lose the ‘86 final to the Chicago Bears – a 46-10 blowout loss. But the Steelers continued their momentum, defeating Seattle 21-10 as four-point favorites.
Although the Super Bowl is technically at a neutral venue in Arizona, the Giants have been designated as the visiting team.
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NFL
What bettors need to know…….
Sunday, February 3
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What bettors need to know: Giants vs. Patriots
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What bettors need to know: Super Bowl XLII
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET (-12, 53 ½)
Line moves
Some Vegas sportsbooks opened with New England favored by as many as 13 ½ points. Since then, heavy action on New York has moved the line to Patriots -12 at most Vegas and offshore books. The game’s total has held steady between 53 ½ and 54 points.
Brady’s boot
On Monday, Tom Brady was photographed heading from an SUV to his girlfriend Gisele Bundchen's apartment in New York on what looked like a walking cast on his right foot.
"Ah, you know, there's always bumps and bruises. I'll be ready for the Super Bowl," Brady said Monday during his weekly radio appearance on WEEI. "I'm not worried about that. I'm not missing this one. I'd have to be on a stretcher to miss this one. There will be treatment this week. In games like this, you get a little nicked up. It's nothing serious."
Stay tuned for updates.
Raising Arizona
The Super Bowl will be played at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The stadium, which opened Aug. 1, 2006, features a retractable grass field and roof and should accommodate more than 73,000 fans.
Slaying the Giants
New York gave up 80 combined points in its first two games of the season, both of which, not surprisingly, ended up as straight up and ATS losses. Since then, the Giants have held 14 of their last 17 opponents to 24 points or fewer with only Dallas, Minnesota and New England topping that total. The Giants lost all three of those games, covering only against New England in Week 17’s 38-35 loss.
The kicking game
New York’s Lawrence Tynes was 23-of-27 in his field goal attempts in the regular season, with all four of his misses coming on kicks from less than 40 yards out. Tynes missed two huge field goal attempts during the NFC championship game, but he hit the one that counted in overtime from 47 yards. His longest kick of the year was a 48-yarder.
Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski hit 21 of his 24 regular season field goal attempts, with two misses from outside 40 yards. He has only attempted two field goals in the playoffs, hitting one of them. His longest kick of the year was a 45-yarder.
Super stats
The Giants are 5-0 in their last five against the spread and against teams with a winning record.
The Patriots are 0-5 in their last five against the spread.
The favored team has gone 9-3 straight up and 4-6-2 against the spread in the last dozen Super Bowls.
Teams that score more than 27 points in the Super Bowl are 23-1 and 22-2-1 against the spread. New England has averaged 35.6 points per game, while New York averages 23.2.
Recent meetings
The two teams have split the last four meetings between them dating back to 2005, but the Giants covered the number in three of those games. The over cashed in three times as well.
Notable injuries:
New England:
Tom Brady QB - (ankle) probable.
Mike Wright DE - (foot) IR
Rosevelt Colvin LB - (foot) IR
Sammy Morris RB - (chest) IR
David Thomas TE - (foot) IR
New York:
Rich Seubert OG - (knee) questionable
Craig Dahl S - (knee) IR
Jeremy Shockey TE - (leg) IR
Derrick Ward RB – (fibula) IR
Mathias Kiwanuka LB – (leg) IR
Robert Douglas FB – (knee) IR
Adrian Awasom DL – (back) IR
Jim Finn FB – (shoulder) IR
Will Demps SS – (elbow) IR
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NFL
Key Matchups
Sunday, February 3
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Giants vs. Patriots: the key matchups
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Matchups for the Super Bowl between the New York Giants and New England Patriots on Feb. 3 at the University of Phoenix Stadium:
When the Giants have the ball
Having scored 35 points in their season-finale loss to New England, the Giants know they can move the ball on the Patriots. Moving the ball is not enough, though. Nor is kicking field goals. New York must reach the end zone several times, while also trying to use up the clock.
That means Brandon Jacobs (27) and Ahmad Bradshaw (44) running often. Both have been particularly effective down the stretch, with the rookie Bradshaw breaking some long runs. New England is most vulnerable in that area, although calling the Patriots' run defense a weakness would be an exaggeration.
Linebackers Tedy Bruschi (54), Mike Vrabel (50), Junior Seau (55) and Adalius Thomas (96) will be kept busy by those running backs. The Giants could be without left guard Rich Seubert (69), who hurt his knee, which won't help against the assortment of defensive linemen New England uses. The star is Richard Seymour (93), who missed half the season recovering from a knee injury and has not been particularly dynamic yet. But Ty Warren (94) and Vince Wilfork (75) certainly have been, and Jarvis Green (97) provides depth up front.
New York's blocking has been superb in the playoffs, providing ample protection for Eli Manning (10) and opening wide holes for the running backs. Tackle David Diehl (66) and guard Chris Snee (76) have been particularly impressive.
If Manning gets the same amount of time he's received recently, his hookups with WRs Plaxico Burress (17) and Amani Toomer (81), and rookies Steve Smith (12) and TE Kevin Boss (89) will give the Patriots plenty of trouble. Burress is not the deep threat the Patriots' Randy Moss (81) provides, but he's nearly as dangerous because of his size, good hands and athletic ability. Burress also has been at his healthiest recently, which makes him a matchup problem for Asante Samuel (22) and Ellis Hobbs (27).
Manning has been at his most accurate, playing the best football of his four-year career. His playoff numbers - particularly four touchdowns to no interceptions and a 99.2 rating - are worthy of brother Peyton, last year's Super Bowl MVP.
When the Patriots have the ball
Unquestionably, the key for New York is slowing Moss, who overwhelmed Giants cornerbacks and safeties in the last meeting. Moss had six receptions for 100 yards and two TDs as he broke Jerry Rice's NFL mark with 23 touchdown catches. While Corey Webster (23) has made some big plays in the postseason, he'll need help from Gibril Wilson (28) and the other safeties. The Giants must be aggressive in their approach against Moss.
Of course, that usually leaves Wes Welker (83) with single coverage, and Welker can be destructive on underneath routes. He had 11 catches for 122 yards in the season finale.
There's also Donte' Stallworth (18) and Jabar Gaffney (10) for New York cornerbacks Webster, Sam Madison (29), rookie Aaron Ross (31) and R.W. McQuarters (25) to deal with. The safeties have to handle tight end Benjamin Watson (84), who's extremely dangerous in the red zone.
Plus, there's RB Kevin Faulk (33) on screens, flares and other short passes he turns into decent gains, particularly on first down. Faulk also is terrific on third downs for the highest-scoring offense in league history.
Faulk won't do a lot of running with RB Laurence Maroney (39) now a focal point of the offense. Maroney has run for 244 yards and two TDs and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Engineering it all is the league MVP, Tom Brady (12), who is 3-0 in Super Bowls, twice earning MVP honors. Unless the Giants get ample pressure on Brady with their standout linemen - Michael Strahan (92), Osi Umenyiora (72), Justin Tuck (91) and Fred Robbins (98) - and linebacker Antonio Pierce (58), Brady might get a third individual trophy.
Brady supposedly has a slight ankle injury. Or maybe coach Bill Belichick invented that to make his superb offensive line even stauncher in their protection. Tackle Matt Light (72), guard Logan Mankins (70) and center Dan Koppen (67) are the standouts.
Special Teams
Adam Vinatieri played a leading role in all three Patriots Super Bowl victories, and then won a title with Indianapolis last year. Now Stephen Gostkowski (3) does the placekicking, and he's money.
Lawrence Tynes (9) was inconsistent in his first year with the Giants, and he missed two potential winning field goals at frigid Green Bay in the title game. But he made a 47-yarder to send New York to the Super Bowl.
Patriots punter Chris Hanson (6) didn't get used much during the season, and his gross average in the playoffs is 38.0 yards, less than 20-year veteran Jeff Feagles' net. Feagles (18) is appearing in his first Super Bowl despite two decades in the league.
Neither team has dangerous threats on kick or punt returns, although Domenik Hixon (87) has given the Giants a late-season spark. Hobbs had a 108-yard kickoff return, but that was in the opener.
Coaching
A matchup of former colleagues with the Giants under Bill Parcells. Belichick has won three titles with the Patriots and, given two weeks to prepare for a team, he is virtually unbeatable. Then again, his team has been totally unbeatable this season.
The 2007 Coach of the Year despite the Spygate scandal that cost him a $500,000 league fine, Belichick will come up with a variety of defensive schemes to confuse Manning. His offense will be full-throttle all game.
Coughlin's work this season has been very impressive, too. The Giants were 8-8 in 2006 and barely squeezed into the playoffs, where they lost in the first round. Another such performance might have led to his firing.
Instead, he's improved his relationship with the players and, during the postseason, he's developed solid game plans that the Giants have executed magnificently. Coughlin heads to his first Super Bowl as a head coach with a contract extension certain.
Intangibles
New York simply doesn't lose on the road, and the Giants are the designated away team at University of Phoenix Stadium. They've won 10 straight away games, and they have outplayed all three opponents in the playoffs on both sides of the ball.
Don't forget that they tested the Patriots on Dec. 29, even led by 12 points in the third quarter. And all the pressure is on New England.
Not that the Patriots care about pressure. They are the, uh, perfect example of a team that responds to whatever challenge. This is the best version of any of the Pats teams to make the Super Bowl this decade, and their undefeated record has placed them in a glaring spotlight for months.
New England is experienced, well-rounded and incredibly focused on this championship.
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NFL
Line Report
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NFL – Super Bowl line report
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(01-20-08)
Patriots heavy favorites against Giants at Vegas sports books
LAS VEGAS (AP) -New England Patriots fans who want to bet on their team in the Super Bowl will face a significant point spread against the underdog Giants as quarterback Tom Brady aims for a 19-0 record and fourth championship ring.
The Patriots are favored by 13 to 14 points against the New York Giants (13-6) at Las Vegas sports books, a higher-than-normal spread to entice underdog bettors on the biggest booked game of the season.
''The Patriots are still considered by far the best team in the league,'' said Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton. ''We obviously make that line to get equal action on both sides. To do that, because of the perception of the Patriots, we have to increase their number more than usual.''
Bets were flowing in on the Patriots early in the season as they destroyed opponents and the spread, but the team has won by a margin that was larger than the spread only once in its last eight games, said Chuck Esposito, Caesars Palace's assistant vice president of race and sports book operations.
''A game of this magnitude, historically you'll see some money on the favorite,'' said Esposito, who put the Patriots as 14-point favorites. ''I think that's one of the reasons that the number might be a little bit high.''
The spread is the point difference oddsmakers set to even out lopsided matchups. A bettor who put $110 on the Patriots would need the team to beat the Giants by at least 14 or 15 points to get back $210, which includes his original bet.
Oddsmakers set the total score of the two teams at around 55. Bettors can wager that the final total will be more or less than that amount.
Kornegay predicted a record handle at Nevada sports books, topping the $94.5 million record set in 2006 when Pittsburgh beat Seattle 21-10.
The Patriots are trying to become the second team in NFL history to go undefeated. They already beat the Giants this season, winning 38-35 in the regular-season finale.
''The Giants played right with them for the majority of the game,'' Esposito said. ''And there will be another Manning (New York quarterback Eli Manning) in the Big Game.''
MGM Mirage Inc. sports book director Robert Walker expected the handle in Nevada sports books to hit $100 million.
''I think with the New York team and the Patriots being the most popular team in football, it has the makings of being a special game,'' he said.
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Pats always Super Bowl faves
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(01-28-08)
The New England Patriots are sitting as 12-point favorites to get past the New York Giants and win the Super Bowl on Sunday - but where were they listed in the summer?
During our rundown of the Super Bowl odds back in June we found that the Vegas oddsmakers had spurned the defending-champion Indianapolis Colts and instead pegged Tom Brady and company as the favorites. New England was installed at 5/1 championship odds at that time, while Indianapolis was just a bit behind them at 11/2.
So if you wagered on the Patriots to win Super Bowl XLII back in June you're now waiting for that 5/1 payoff on Sunday night. On the other hand, if you wagered on the Colts to win a second consecutive championship this year you're down a bit of money.
How did the rest of the National Football League fare on those early lines? The San Diego Chargers were third at 6/1 odds, followed by the Chicago Bears at 8/1, and the Baltimore Ravens at 10/1. The New Orleans Saints were pegged at 12/1 odds to win the title, while the Cincinnati Bengals and the Seattle Seahawks were both at 15/1. Of those six teams only the Chargers and the Seahawks managed to make the postseason.
The other eight playoff teams this season all began the year with Super Bowl odds of 20/1 or worse. The Dallas Cowboys led that group at 20/1, while the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers were at 25/1. The Green Bay Packers and the Washington Redskins were both back on the list at just 50/1 odds, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sitting at 60/1, and the Tennessee Titans close to the bottom at 70/1 odds.
And what about the Giants, who could still pay off on that futures bet this weekend? Vegas had Eli Manning's team sitting at 30/1 odds to win the Super Bowl back in June.
If you'd like to skip ahead to next year's Super Bowl and lock in some longshots you can find those early championship odds provided by the Vegas oddsmakers right now. The biggest money can be made on huge turnarounds by the Atlanta Falcons and the Miami Dolphins - should one of those clubs get an unlikely Super Bowl win they pay at 150/1.
Four other teams are listed at 100/1 odds or higher to win Super Bowl XLIII - the Kansas City Chiefs are at 100/1, while each of the Ravens, Oakland Raiders, and San Francisco 49ers are at 125/1. However, no team listed at 100/1 odds or worse by the Vegas oddsmakers in the preseason last season managed to advance to the playoffs.
So who is listed as the favorite for next year's Super Bowl? The same team that is currently the favorite to win this year's Super Bowl. The Patriots are sitting high atop the odds list for next year's championship at 5/2, with the Cowboys and Colts the closest teams to them at 6/1. Next up are Brett Favre's Packers, who are pegged with 7/1 odds.
The Giants are in the Super Bowl this week, but that feat only has them listed seventh at 12/1 odds to win next year's championship - the Jaguars and Chargers are also ahead of them at 10/1. The Seahawks and Steelers are both listed at 18/1 odds to win Super Bowl XLIII, while the Bucs are 28/1, and the Titans and Redskins sit at 30/1 odds.
The Saints and Bears both fell to 7-9 this season, but they're listed at modest 20/1 and 25/1 odds, respectively, to win next year's Super Bowl. The Cleveland Browns had the most wins of any non-playoff team this year, and they're at 30/1 to get into the next postseason and win it all. The Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, and Minnesota Vikings are at 38/1, while the Philadelphia Eagles and the Arizona Cardinals are at 45/1.
Bigger longshots to win Super Bowl XLIII include the Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, and Houston Texans, who all opened at lucrative 60/1 odds to become the champions. The New York Jets and the St. Louis Rams trail on that list at 75/1 odds.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL
Reports
for Sunday’s game (February 3)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reports: Super Bowl
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NFL Rumors
Walking wounded: Brady spotted in cast
Monday, Jan 21, 2008 11:44 pm EST
AP
Fans of the New England Patriots had to be swallowing hard Monday when pictures of quarterback Tom Brady sporting a walking cast on his right foot surfaced.
A video taken of Brady in New York Sunday, which is available on TMZ, shows the NFL's MVP returning to girlfriend Gisele Bundchen's apartment. He's walking gingerly on the sidewalk after emerging from a black SUV parked on the street.
During his weekly appearance on WEEI's "Dennis and Callahan" show, Brady didn't dismiss the notion he had suffered some type of leg injury during Sunday's AFC Championship win. "Ah, you know, there's always bumps and bruises. I'll be ready for the Super Bowl," Brady said, when asked point-blank if he had a leg injury.
Source: Boston Herald
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE
Brady's injury minor
Boot is seen as just a precaution
Boston Globe / January 23, 2008
The sight of star quarterback Tom Brady wearing a protective boot over his right foot Monday had New York tabloids buzzing and Patriots followers fearing the worst, but the injury is not serious.
Brady has a high right ankle sprain, according to an NFL source, which explains why he was wearing the device during a visit to New York. The sprain, which is minor, will not jeopardize Brady's chances of playing in Super Bowl XLII Feb. 3, the source said.
Both the Patriots and Giants are not required to submit an injury report until a week from today. The Patriots do not return to practice until tomorrow.
Two medical experts, neither of whom is treating Brady, indicated that he likely was wearing the boot as a preventative measure.
"Since two weeks remain , the medical/training staff may have determined that using this short leg walker would provide some relief of pressure, and provide support and rest, even if it was a minor injury," said Dr. Michael A. Robinson, a sports podiatrist and foot surgeon based in Brookline. "The short leg walker would help promote more rapid recovery."
Dr. Nicholas DiNubile, an orthopedic surgeon specializing in sports medicine, further described the benefit of the boot.
"It is a way to rest that body part and prevent the normal movement that goes on with everyday walking," said DiNubile, who serves as an orthopedic consultant to the Philadelphia 76ers. "That allows things to settle down because it's protecting that area and preventing the motions.
"Not knowing the specifics, it looks to me that they just wanted to put it to rest for a day or two."
Brady's foot became a hot topic when he was photographed in New York City Monday afternoon. Gossip website TMZ.com also posted a 1-minute-18-second video clip of Brady and his girlfriend, Gisele Bundchen, which showed Brady favoring his right foot.
Later in the night, Brady was photographed again in New York City, but without the boot.
Brady's father was a guest on 1510 ESPN radio in New York yesterday, and said that if the injury were serious, Brady would have spoken to him about it. Tom Brady Sr. also said that there is no question Brady will play.
"If he had to go out there with two crutches and a cast on each leg, he is playing," Brady Sr. said. "He won't voluntarily walk off the field. Anybody that thinks a little tweak is going to stop is just wasting ink."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOM'S PLAYING PATRIOT GAMES
January 25, 2008-- FOXBOROUGH - Who said the Patriots don't have a game until Super Bowl XXLII against the Giants on Feb. 3 in Arizona?
They played a game yesterday - a high-stakes cat-and-mouse game of hide-and-seek with their superstar quarterback Tom Brady.
Should there be there considerable concern about the health of Brady and his famously photographed ailing right ankle?
The footsie-playing Patriots would love the Giants to think so.
On the Patriots players' first day back to work after three days off, Brady was nowhere to be found - at least during the periods when reporters had access to the locker room and practice field, which was perfectly choreographed.
Giants Notes: Guarded Optimism
A Couple of Friendly Enemies
Brady was more visible on the streets of Manhattan squiring his supermodel girlfriend Gisele Bundchen around early this week than he was at the team's practice facility yesterday at Gillette Stadium.
He was a no-show in the locker room during the period it was opened to reporters, and Patriots' officials said he would not be available for interviews.
And then, about an hour later, he was a no-show on the practice field during the short window during which the media is permitted to attend.
A ruse?
Absolutely.
A mind game from Bill Belichick?
Bet on it.
Plax: Pats Don't Have Best Wide Receivers
Don't Bet Against Them
The Giants, however, are unlikely to fall for this banana-in-the-tailpipe trick.
In fact, listening to some of Brady's teammates yesterday, you got the distinct impression that there isn't a significant amount of concern about Brady's health.
Several players, in fact, were amused by the attention L'Affaire Brady has attracted, and none seemed concerned that their record-shattering MVP leader would be affected in the least come Super Bowl XLII.
"I mean, it was a walking boot, wasn't it?" Patriots defensive end Richard Seymour said, referring to the photos published in The Post this week of Brady wearing a protective boot on his right foot to protect what is believed to be a mild high ankle sprain. "The New York media wanted to make more out of it than it was. New York, New York, what can you say?
"Every channel I turned to, there it was," Seymour added. "The funny part - the good part - was the flowers (Brady was carrying to Bundchen's West Village apartment). I was (focused) on the flowers, not on the boot. I went and got my wife flowers after seeing that.
"Obviously, Tom can speak for himself (though he chose not to yesterday), but I don't foresee him not being in this game."
Nor do any of Brady's other teammates.
"He's fine. Tommy's the least of my worries. I'm going to put on a boot and see if you guys follow me around," Patriots fullback Heath Evans said.
"He's going to play, man, don't even worry about it," Patriots veteran running back Kevin Faulk said. "If the game would have been today (yesterday) he was going to play. If the game would have been on Monday or Tuesday or whenever the report (from New York) was, he was going to play. Tom is going to be all right and that's it. Simple as that. No more Tom questions, please."
Tough Mann Contest
Strahan, Captain Clutch an Inspiration
Unfortunately for the Patriots players, who were besieged with the Brady questions yesterday, the team's handling of it - purposely creating a shroud of mystery - has perpetuated the mini-hysteria.
Belichick, for example, appeared almost giddy (for him) when he began fielding questions about his quarterback.
"I don't have any comment on it," he said initially.
When asked if Brady would practice, Belichick said, "We'll go out there . . . I don't know."
A moment later, he smirked, "The injury report will be out next Wednesday and we're excited to get that to you. (It'll be) filled out completely and I can't wait to get that to you, because I know you're anxious for it."
Of course, on cue from Belichick, Patriots officials declined to say whether Brady participated in any part of the practice session.
The Patriots will conduct another practice today and players who choose to make themselves available will be speak to reporters again.
All eyes, of course, will be in search of Brady. Let the games continue.
Source: New York Post
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bootless Brady looks fine at Super arrival
Patriots QB acknowledges injury, but says he'll be fine
The Associated Press
updated 6:54 p.m. PT, Sun., Jan. 27, 2008
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. - Relax, Patriots fans. A smiling Tom Brady says not to worry about his much publicized and photographed ankle. It won’t keep him out of Sunday’s Super Bowl.
New England’s star quarterback walked up the three short steps to the podium with ease Sunday night, showing no signs of the right ankle injury that had become such a hot topic since he was spotted wearing a protective boot last Monday.
“It’s feeling good. I’ll be ready to go,†Brady said as the AFC champions met the media for the first time shortly after arriving in Phoenix.
It was also the first time Brady acknowledged he was injured in the AFC championship game.
“It was in the San Diego game, I think in the third quarter,†Brady said, referring to the Patriots’ 21-12 victory last Sunday.
Brady hasn’t practiced since, but said he moved a little bit during the week and “shuffled around.â€
“I’m not concerned about how it’s going to affect my play,†he said. “This won’t keep me out.â€
The face of New England’s franchise reportedly has a minor high ankle sprain. He wore a protective boot on his right foot last Monday in New York while visiting supermodel girlfriend Gisele Bundchen, causing a major stir and concern among Patriots fans.
“I was just trying to get into the house as fast as I could,†Brady said. “I was trying to hobble along. It kind of caught me off guard.â€
New England will try to become the first team in NFL history to finish 19-0 when it plays the New York Giants in the Super Bowl next Sunday.
After returning to Foxborough on Wednesday, Brady wasn’t spotted by the media the next two days while reporters were allowed into the locker room and at practice.
“I was glad to be back in New England and in the insulated atmosphere of our locker room,†he said.
It sure wasn’t safe on the streets of New York for Brady.
“Yeah, it’s been an interesting week,†he said. “I’m much lighter on my toes than I thought.â€
Brady also issued a playful warning: “Don’t any of you chase me around. I won’t be nearly as nice as I was last week.â€
That was when he was followed by paparazzi as he exited a taxi in New York, with a handful of flowers for his girlfriend. Later that day and on Tuesday, he wasn’t wearing the boot when photographed.
“It’s just part of the world we’re living in,†he said. “Those places I went for refuge, I guess I can’t go anymore. If we were 0-16, nobody would (care).â€
Coach Bill Belichick, who spoke before Brady, wouldn’t address the injury or Brady’s status.
“We’ll update our injury report on Wednesday,†Belichick said with a smirk. “And, I look forward to it, too.â€
When Brady was asked, he grinned and said, “How’s the ankle? What did Coach say?â€
The reporter responded with: “He said ask you.â€
Brady laughed and shook his head.
“Did he?†he said. “Wow, that’s different.â€
Brady, who stood at the podium in a navy, pinstriped suit, with a navy vest and his white shirt open at the collar, smiled throughout the news conference and was in a playful mood. When asked about the ankle once again, he interrupted the reporter and said, “Last question of the week.â€
He then went through the details one more time and closed with, “Good? That work?â€
Earlier Sunday, Brady appeared in front of reporters and photographers in Foxborough for the first time since the game against the Chargers. At a departure rally shortly before the team buses left for their trip to Phoenix, he walked without slipping on a light dusting of snow on the Gillette Stadium field as flurries fell.
“Now this is Foxborough faithful right here,†Brady told the cheering crowd of about 15,000 after he reached the podium at midfield along the Patriots sideline. “We can just go ahead and play the game today. Thank you guys for coming out.â€
posted by phantom
Jan. 28 2008 7:18pm -
0 likes
NFL
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Vegas the Only Place Patriots Don't Win
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Although the rest of the sporting world may look at the Patriots as being one win away from completing a perfect season, Las Vegas views them through a much different prism.
To the oddsmakers on the Strip, the 18-0 Patriots are really 10-8.
"As far as the pointspread goes, that's correct," said Chuck Esposito, director of the race and sports book at Caesars Palace, where the Patriots were installed last week as 14-point favorites over the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII Sunday.
"Granted, it's a lot of points," Esposito said, "but we looked for a number that would draw good two-way action . We're not predicting who is going to win or lose, but it's a pointspread that we feel is going to draw good two-way action."
Since its initial release, however, the pointspread has gone down to 121/2, which, oddsmakers say, is not so much a reflection of the recent news about quarterback Tom Brady's right ankle sprain as it is of the Patriots' 2-7 record against the spread in their past nine games.
" would probably affect the line more than anybody in the NFL; maybe Peyton Manning could rival him," said Tony Sinisi, odds director at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. "But it might be a 10-point drop if it went from Tom Brady to Matt Cassel. It would probably go down to New England 3. But there's not any feeling out there that Brady won't play."
Before news broke about Brady's ankle, "I think the betting public was looking for value and felt that, at 13 or 14, there was just too good a value on the Giants," Esposito said. "They have covered nine out of 10 road games and have won 10 straight road games and covered all three playoff games."
It has prompted many bettors to take the Giants and the points.
"We opened the Super Bowl line at 14 and it quickly moved from 14 to 131/2, and ever since then, it's been dropping little by little," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton, who estimated that 70 percent of the early action has been on the Giants.
"It's a little odd, because the favorite in the Super Bowl is always inflated and in this case, it's no different. This is one line that we make that's geared toward the general public, because the general public's money always dominates the action in the Super Bowl. When we put that line out, we expected a little bit more support on the Patriots and we haven't seen that yet, but we're hoping it comes out later."
At the beginning of the season, the Patriots were a sure bet after they trampled not only their opposition en route to an 8-0 start, but the Vegas sports books as well, beating the spread in those wins. Their perfect record (against the spread, that is) was blemished when they failed to cover as a 5-point favorite in a 24-20 triumph at Indianapolis Nov. 4.
"Actually, the Patriots all season long have been a thorn in our side," Kornegay said. "It's a team we just cannot figure out. We took it in the shorts for pretty much two-thirds of the season. The last game that we won -- one of the games that we won -- was the Eagles game . That was the last game we saw this huge snowball effect of support for the Patriots.
posted by phantom
Jan. 28 2008 7:19pm -
0 likes
Great info fellas....I like it!
Again....I cannot and will not put money on Eli Manning. What has he proven?? Finally, he has strung together 3 good games??? Big deal! I will play on the proven team!! I hope the public continues to lay on the Giants! That works well for me!! Besides that, Sherlock is back to his hating ways and rolling against another Boston team!!
I would say that there should be limited if any stock put into the match-up between the Pats and Giants in the final game of the regualr season!
Sure ATS the 2nd half of the season was bad....they were 10-6 ATS for the season! 2 of those games, the line was 20+ points and they won by double digits...10 & 21. Rememer also, the 2nd half of the season also featured more cold, snowy and windy condiitons which will not be a factor!
I know the Giants are a good road team with a 9-1 record. But the Patriots are 10-0 on the road!!!
Eli Manning has a 27/20 TD/INT Ratio with a QB Rating of 77.5
Brady--- 55/11 with a 116.2 rating
Not even comparable!
Pats score an average of 12 more points a game (35.6 vs 23.2)
and give up an average of 4 less (17 vs 21.2)
Ah shit....What do I know, I'm just a homer!!!
PS. How about them Celts!!!! In the top 5 ATS as well!!!!
GOOD LUCK ON THE SUPERBOWL BOYS!!!
posted by thebigmessy
Jan. 28 2008 10:52pm -
0 likes
Thanks again for the info fellas....all good stuff.
Lets keep them coming.
Hey bigmessy maybe you can answer this question for me. Has any team beaten Belichick ATS twice in the same season? Let alone give him two weeks to prepare for the biggest game of year. I honest believe that when they played the first time NE was being too conservative.
Who knows what the game plan will be this time?
I really do believe NE will roll this one buddy. But still looking at some more things though.
Please keep chiming in fellas. GL all $$$
-CC
posted by close_call
Jan. 29 2008 12:30am -
0 likes
Messy, I'm not hating. I do think the Pats will win and finish the perfect season. You make some very good points for why the Pats will win. However, I haven't seen an argument of why the Pats will COVER!.
12 is too many points. I've felt that way all through the playoffs and have gone 2-0 betting against the Pats. The Pats are great, but don't forget to respect their opponents. I thought the Jags had a legit shot at beating the pats, but were 13 point dogs. San Diego went to Foxboro with a lot of injuries, yet still covered the 12 points. The Giants are riding a wave right now.
On another note, what does eveyone think of the total.
Before the line was set, I was thinking over, but 53 is alot of points. It needs to be a near perfect offensive game to soar over that total. This isn't college.
I'm leading my home pool. If I go 1-1 on the Super Bowl, I'm guranteed 2nd place (assuming my opponent goes 2-0). If I go 0-2, a couple of guys could catch me with perfect days. That's another reason I'm on the G-men, as I know most guys will bet NYG.
posted by sherlock37
Jan. 29 2008 8:00am -
0 likes
Game is a dead under in my eyes. 25-17, 27-14 type game. I think Messy's beloved Pats could cover the number but don't think they will. Relax Messy they still win and go perfect, just maybe not cover the number. 12 is awful high for a team that hasn't covered in what?? 2 months?? more? GL with your plays. I'll be on the under unless I see something screwy.
posted by hilly
Jan. 29 2008 9:27am -
0 likes
I cannot and do not refute any of the logic people see in betting the Giants. There are many factors that point to the Pats not covering the number!
But, if asked why I will back the Pats and not the Giants, I will offer this:
Eli Manning Sucks.
Pats have the experience in the big game.
Pats dominated ATS early in the season in GOOD weather conditions.
Public on Giants.
Eli Manning Sucks.
Hilly made two predicitons, both indicating a Pats push/cover!!!
Seriously though, its a tough game simply beacuse it is a lopsided matchup! I cannot play this game hoping Manning will play another good game, something he has never done (This is the first time in his career he has strung together 3+ games with a 100+ passer rating). I will play this game fully expecting Manning to make some egregious mistakes and putting the Giants in a hole that will be too difficult to climb out of!
I'll be back with some more in a few!
posted by thebigmessy
Jan. 29 2008 9:58am -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
The Giants
He has New England winning by 10
A few number to note
Patriots are 2-8 ATS their last 10
Their average margin of victory fell from 25.5 ppg top 12.2 in the last half of the season
The Giants won ten straight road games going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread by +83.5 points in that time away from NY.
Bellichick is 15-3 SU (12-0 as chalk) but only 9-8-1 ATS in the playoffs
And 7-11 under in the playoffs
He is 13-1 SU when the posted otal is 49 or higher
He is also 36-15 SU 30-19-2 ATS agaionst thr NFC
14-5 if of an ATS loss and 25-10 SUATS if they scored less than 28 in their previous game
Coughlin is 6-2 ATS as an 11 plus point underdog and 17-11 off a straight up dog win(6-1 SUATS last 7)
He is also 8-8 SU and 9-4-2 ATS against undefeated teams
Brady is 100-25 SU and 76-45-4 ATS(but only 11-11 as a double digit favorite)including a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post season
Eli Manning as a starter is 32-27 SU and 35-24 ATS but 19-9-1 away from home
Also, he is 29-12-1 in gamwes after they score more than 17
Super Bowl facts to ponder
Super Bowl favorites are 9-3 SU but only 4-6-2 the last 12 years
The last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-11-1 ATS
Teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU and 21-2-1 ATS
Teams who score less than 20 points 0-23 SU and 3-19-1ATS
Since 1980 teams who won a playoff game in OT are 5-10 SU and 7-8ATS in the net game including 0-2 SUATS if the next game was a SB
posted by phantom
Jan. 30 2008 2:32pm -
0 likes
POINTWISE
SUPER BOWL FACTS (In No Particular Order of Importance)
In the first 33 Super Bowls, the spread had come into play only 5 times, but the last 8
have seen 3 such instances: Tennessee (+7) losing 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV;
Carolina (+7) losing 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVII, & Philadelphia (+7) losing 24-
21 in Super Bowl XXXIX. The underdog has gone 6-4-2 ATS in the last 12
Super Bowls. A highly unusual aspect of this year's game, is the amount of
common foes faced by both teams, with 11 of the Giants' 19 opponents also
playing the Patriots, & with 10 of New England's 18 foes taking on New York.
The Giants were 8-3 SU (7-4 ATS) against those squads, while the Patriots
were obviously 10-0 SU (6-4 ATS). The Giants have won a record 10 straight
road games, covering 9 of those 10, by 9.9 ppg ATS. The Pats covered
their first 8 games by 15.7 ppg ATS, with the average spread being minus 10.9
pts. But since then, they stand at just 2-8 vs the pts, with a combined negative
56 pts. The average spread in those 10 games was minus 15.8 pts! Patriots
selected for the Pro Bowl: QB Brady, WR Moss, OT Light, OG Mankins, C
Koppen, DT Wilfork, LB Vrabel, CB Samuel. Giants in the Pro Bowl: DE
Umenyiora. The Giants enter on a 5-0 spread run. The Patriots enter on an
0-5 spread slide. The team with the better spread record has gone 8-2 ATS
in the playoffs, with the only misses coming by ½ pt in Jacksonville's win
over Pittsburgh (with a 1½ pt line move the true culprit), & in New York's
win over Green Bay in -20 degree wind chill weather. The Patriots rank 1st
in 7 offensive categories, rank in the top 5 in 10 offensive categories, & in the
top 10 in 13 offensive categories. The Giants rank in the top 5 in 2 offensive
columns, & in the top 10 in 4 offensive columns. New England ranks in the
top 5 in 7 defensive categories, & in the top 10 in 12 defensive categories. NY
ranks in the top 5 in 5 defensive columns, & in the top 10 in 11 defensive
columns. Brady set an NFL record the year with 50 TD passes during the
regular season, with only 8 interceptions, as he compiled an NFL best 117.2
QB rating. He has thrown for 5 TDs in the playoffs, while setting a playoff
record for completion percentage (92.9) with an incredible 26-of-28 display vs
Jacksonville. But he threw 3 interceptions vs the Chargers, the most he has
thrown since being picked off that many times, by San Diego in LY's playoff win.
And his 1st quarter interception was the first of his career in the 1st quarter of
a playoff game. Manning entered the regular season finale with 19 TD
passes, along with 19 interceptions, with a QB rating of 71.0. But he has
since thrown for 8 touchdowns, with just a single pick, & that vs the likes
of the Pats, Bucs, Cowboys, & Packers. He is 53-of-85 (62.3%) for 602
yds, 4 TDs, & no interceptions in the playoffs. His 3-game stretch without
a pick is his longest of the season, as he had gone 2 straight games
without an INT just once. Patriot RB Maroney has four 100 RY efforts in his
last 5 games, including the exact same 122 yds in each playoff game, after
reaching the 100 RY plateau in only 1 of his first 10 games. The Giants' RB
combo of Jacobs & Bradshaw have run for 318 yds in the playoffs, with
5.0 & 8.3 ypr, respectively, during the regular season. New England WR
Moss set an NFL record with 23 TD catches during the regular season, along
with 98 catches. During the playoffs, he has just 2 catches, for 14 &18 yds.
But his teammate WR Welker has 18 catches in the playoffs (2 TDs), to go
along with his NFL-best 112 receptions during the regular season. The Giant
WR duo of Burress & Toomer combined for 129 catches in the regular
season, for 15 TDs. In their 1st 2 playoff games, Toomer had 11 catches
for 3 TDs, while Burress exploded vs the Packers, with a career high 11
catches for 154 yds. The Giants had a chance to derail the Patriots' shot at a
perfect 16-0 regular season, coming up just 3 pts short on the final week of the
season, as 13½ pt dogs. The Patriots had a 36:18-23:42 time edge in that
one. The Giants fumbled it 5 times vs the Packers, but lost only 1. This year's
Patriot edition is the highest scoring team in history (589 regular season
pts). Brady is 14-2 SU in playoff games, but just 8-7-1 ATS. The Pats' 18
wins ties the '84 Niners, & '85 Bears for the most-ever in a season. Both
head coaches (Coughlin of the Giants, & Belichick of the Patriots), coached
under the legendary Bill Parcells. NY's 3 straight road wins in this year's
playoffs has only been done twice previously: by the '85 Patriots, & by
the '05 Steelers. The Pats were then routed, 46-10, by the Bears in the
Super Bowl, while Pitt eased by the Seahawks, 21-10. The Patriots are on
the verge of history, with their seemingly unstoppable offense, led by one of the
elite QBs of all time in Brady. But their invincibility (25.4 ppg edge in their first
10 games), has been tested with 4 wins of 4 pts or less. And their recent ATS
demise can be attributed to spreads bordering on the ridiculous. They are a
majestic force, to be sure. But the Giants didn't back off in their first meeting,
& have the pressure "D" to at least keep Manning in sight. And perhaps no one
knows the Patriots as well as does Eli's brother Peyton. New England's 3-0
Super Bowl run has been by 3, 3, & 3 pts. So why not another? Points the play.
PROPHECY: New England 26 - NEW YORK GIANTS 23 RATING: 3
posted by phantom
Jan. 30 2008 2:33pm -
0 likes
THE SPORTS REPORTER
RECOMMENDED
NEW ENGLAND over NY GIANTS by 6
Sports Reporter community:
You just won three straight NFL post-season Best Bets on the San Diego
Chargers. Where are you going next? ‘’We’re going to the Super Bowl!†Not with the
Chargers, but hey, that’s okay. They were a fun and profitable point-spread play while
they lasted. What do we have here? It looks very similar to the situation described last
week regarding New England. Bill Belichick is now the guy who Bill Belichick used to
beat. He is the big favorite who, if he continues to play the same way that got him here,
can be defended against in an opposing team’s effort to keep the game close and be in
it with a chance to win it at the end. Belichick’s own reputation and upwardly mobile path
was created that way 17 years ago in Super Bowl XXV against the Buffalo Bills, a landmark
game frequently referenced by us for the ultimate in offensive/defensive mesh --
being able to control the clock with and without the ball, taking away what a cocky offensive
opponent does best and forcing them to do something they wouldn’t necessarily
choose to do in order to avoid losing. Hey, Belichick was the guy whose defense beat Bill
Walsh-Joe Montana-Jerry Rice, and Jim Kelly-Thurman Thomas-Andre Reed within
seven days that season, supported by a no-name offense. He was the guy whose Patriots
were once 5-0 SU vs. Peyton Manning and the Colts, forcing Manning to become a more
patient passer, (and prompting the NFL to alter rules against defensive players which
now lead to cheap offensive gains via defensive penalties that have really cheapened
this sport). He was the guy who, with the 2001 New England underdogs, took down the
St. Louis Rams’ Greatest Show on Turf at +14. That’s the Belichick you look forward to
betting on in the post-season: the big underdog who is forced to break with tendencies
and come up with a different, creative package against a supremely talented but stubborn
opponent, and who also has the ability to sell that package to a group of experienced
players smart enough to buy into it.
But that role is not available to him here. Belichick is now – irony of ironies -- Mike Martz.
Lopsided early-season wins against a bunch of tomato cans and other teams in transitional
states (like the Chargers, who fell 38-14 at New England in Week 2), have created
not just a 18-0 SU record to be protected, but two-score point-spread differences.
This is the NFL, where margins of that size are usually unsustainable by virtue of the very
parity the NFL is designed to create. That axiom has been proven – or appears to have
been proven – in the 1-7 ATS exploits of bandwagon jumpers laying points on New
England in the last eight games played by the 18-0 SU Patriots. The spread failures and
narrower victory margins began against the Philadelphia Eagles, whose defensive coordinator
Jim Johnson is the guy who tutored current Giants’ defensive coordinator Steve
Spagnuolo. The Eagles did their best to take away the deep pass from Tom Brady to
Randy Moss, changed defensive alignments, and pressured Tom Brady. Because
Philadelphia had some dynamic defensive personnel and was not a soft, lame-butt or
transitioning defense like the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills or Miami
Dolphins units that New England had feasted on earlier, they were able to play this way
and come close to winning. That was the “13 catches by Wes Welker†game. If you’re
playing against New England, you want Wes Welker to catch 13 passes because his
yards per catch of 10.5 is 33% lower than Moss’ ypc, and Moss caught three times as
many TD passes as Welker despite having 14 fewer receptions.
If Belichick is the one who must change anything to adapt to what the opponent is doing
– like running Laurence Maroney a season-high 22 to 26 times against the New York
Jets, and in both playoff wins against Jacksonville and San Diego – then he is getting
away from the big pass plays that powered the Patriots to the early blowout wins that
earned them their inflated power rating. The Pats are 0-3 ATS in games with 22 or more
carries by Maroney.
Before the season, Tom Coughlin said that he wanted the Giants to play like the NBA’s
champion San Antonio Spurs. Steady, unspectacular, fundamentally sound, accountable
to themselves and their teammates, and with respect for the coaches. Luckily for them,
The Man Who Loves Himself, Tiki Barber, quit after last season and Jeremy Shockey, The
Most Overrated Tight End That Ever Lived, was injured and “lost†for the season in Week
15. Note that the Giants are 5-0 ATS in the five games Shockey has missed. It’s good to
be doubly disease-free. Coughlin was on that 1990 New York Giants Super Bowl staff
with Belichick. He was coaching the no-name wide receivers Baker, Ingram and Manuel.
(Who?) He knows Belichick, he knows people who know Belichick. He knows that he has
the option of playing like Belichick used to play, and that Belichick knows as well as anyone
that if New York does play like Belichick used to play, then Belichick shouldn’t be a
14-point favorite in this game.
Spagnuolo replaced Tim Lewis as Giants’ defensive coordinator after last season. The
last “Lewis off†team was the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the Super Bowl after
Lewis was canned after 2004 and replaced by Dick ******. Spagnuolo has two weeks
to consider and possibly practice 5- and 6-defensive back alignments to disrupt Tom
Brady’s timing. In other words, take a page from Belichick’s book. When Spagnuolo was
a defensive assistant in Philadelphia four years ago, the Eagles were –3 in turnovers but
lost by only 3 points to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. While Terrell Owens had the kind
of monster receiving game that the Giants’ Plaxico Burress just had against the Packers,
“New England handled frequent blitzes, Deion Branch caught four passes for 71 yards
on a series…†and, according to Branch, “We did a great job of adjusting during the
game. It was physical. A lot of guys were bumped and bruised." So, is there really a
major on-field difference between then, and now?
The key to the whole game is for the Giants to not trail by two scores. Supported by
return units that secure good starting field position, New York is usually well-balanced
enough on offense to avoid that situation as long as turnovers are avoided, as they have
been so far in the ’07 post-season. But if a two-score Giants deficit materializes, a savvy
New England defense can gamble against and bait Eli Manning. Experienced gamblers
with a lead, vs. a still-young quarterback, would probably press their advantage and win
easily. So here’s hoping the Giants don’t get all “Packer proud†and expose their secondary
to excessive, stubborn man coverage that allows big plays or big, cheap gains
via penalties. Make the Patriots work and sweat for their yards. New England averaged
24 first downs per game during the regular season, 24.5 in the two playoff wins. But in
games against opponents whose offenses averaged 22 first downs (Indianapolis), 20
(Philadelphia), 20 (NY Giants) and 20 (Jacksonville), the Patriots did not cover the spread.
Geez, if only Eli was capable of scrambling for a few first downs like Jeff Hostetler was,
the Giants would win this game outright. NEW ENGLAND, 30-24.
posted by phantom
Jan. 30 2008 2:33pm -
0 likes
Hey Guys...I think Plaxico FUCKED UP!!! LMFAOOOOO!!!!
"We're only going to score 17 points?" Brady said Wednesday morning before chuckling. "OK. Is Plax playing defense?"
Could the Pats look to make an ever bigger statement now?? Thats it, keeping talking!!!!!!
posted by thebigmessy
Jan. 30 2008 4:04pm -
0 likes
Super Bowl facts to ponder
Super Bowl favorites are 9-3 SU but only 4-6-2 the last 12 years
The last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-11-1 ATS
Teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU and 21-2-1 ATS
Teams who score less than 20 points 0-23 SU and 3-19-1ATS
Since 1980 teams who won a playoff game in OT are 5-10 SU and 7-8ATS in the net game including 0-2 SUATS if the next game was a SB
posted by phantom
Jan. 30 2008 6:43pm -
0 likes
"THEBIGMESSY":2vnz9xk7
Hey Guys...I think Plaxico FUCKED UP!!! LMFAOOOOO!!!!
"We're only going to score 17 points?" Brady said Wednesday morning before chuckling. "OK. Is Plax playing defense?"
Could the Pats look to make an ever bigger statement now?? Thats it, keeping talking!!!!!!
bet with your head not with your heart gmen have a chance su on sunday putting something on ml too gl.
posted by takis28
Jan. 30 2008 7:11pm -
0 likes
"phantom":3vw9gww1
Super Bowl facts to ponder
Super Bowl favorites are 9-3 SU but only 4-6-2 the last 12 years
The last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-11-1 ATS
Teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU and 21-2-1 ATS
Teams who score less than 20 points 0-23 SU and 3-19-1ATS
Since 1980 teams who won a playoff game in OT are 5-10 SU and 7-8ATS in the net game including 0-2 SUATS if the next game was a SB
Thanks for that stat man. I like it!
posted by close_call
Jan. 30 2008 7:24pm -
0 likes
"Takis28":1yl4ru51
"THEBIGMESSY":1yl4ru51
Hey Guys...I think Plaxico FUCKED UP!!! LMFAOOOOO!!!!
"We're only going to score 17 points?" Brady said Wednesday morning before chuckling. "OK. Is Plax playing defense?"
Could the Pats look to make an ever bigger statement now?? Thats it, keeping talking!!!!!!
bet with your head not with your heart gmen have a chance su on sunday putting something on ml too gl.
I hear ya bro....But there is no way I will put my money on ELI! Now, if Favre and the Pack were there....You guys may have shit yourself if I played the Pack!!!!
Now I can see guys taking the points...but a SU Giants win with ELI as the QB????
Eli Sucks (as stated before)
Last game of the season, Brady was sacked ONCE. And that was with TWO STARTING Offensive lineman out. How do they improve on that?? It would seem that the Pats would have better protection now!
NYG cover?? Possibly....But Pats losing SU????
SHEEEEEEEEEEEEE-IT!!!
posted by thebigmessy
Jan. 30 2008 8:23pm -
0 likes
"THEBIGMESSY":qlr396jc
"Takis28":qlr396jc
"THEBIGMESSY":qlr396jc
Hey Guys...I think Plaxico FUCKED UP!!! LMFAOOOOO!!!!
"We're only going to score 17 points?" Brady said Wednesday morning before chuckling. "OK. Is Plax playing defense?"
Could the Pats look to make an ever bigger statement now?? Thats it, keeping talking!!!!!!
bet with your head not with your heart gmen have a chance su on sunday putting something on ml too gl.
I hear ya bro....But there is no way I will put my money on ELI! Now, if Favre and the Pack were there....You guys may have shit yourself if I played the Pack!!!!
Now I can see guys taking the points...but a SU Giants win with ELI as the QB????
Eli Sucks (as stated before)
Last game of the season, Brady was sacked ONCE. And that was with TWO STARTING Offensive lineman out. How do they improve on that?? It would seem that the Pats would have better protection now!
NYG cover?? Possibly....But Pats losing SU????
SHEEEEEEEEEEEEE-IT!!!
anything can happen on sunday anything i can't see pats covering the number -11.5 to -12.5 it will be tough. 2units to make 6+ why not worth a try maybe gmen go after brady with blitz most of the game pats had close games with eagles, colts, ravens which i think ravens should of won su thxs to zebras on that game and week 17 with gmen which they won by 3 they started 8-0 ats since then 2-8. gmen on a mission with eli and there solid defence so far should be a great game for both teams. if u had 20units to put on a team which team would u lay it on +11.5/+12 or -11.5/--12. hows vegas doing and try to find out if he likes the pats to cover the number. enjoy the game this sunday should be a gr8 game and gl with your pats. I just can't lay the wood with the pats bro 2-8 ats i just can't gl
posted by takis28
Jan. 30 2008 11:54pm -
0 likes
Like I already said...This is certainly a game where I cannot strongly refute anyone taking the giants plus the points. Much respect to you guys and your thoughts and opinions and feelings!!! I just cannot go with Eli.
As for the 2-8 record ATS the last 10...I'm going off the top of my head because I cant access certain sites right now but two of those 8 games not covered were won by double digits but under the 20+ spread.
Also, this is something that is being highly overlooked...WEATHER!
As soon as the cold weather started moving in...
In games not covered...(that I remember off the top of my head)
Vs Jets...Windy and Rain
Vs Balt...Cold with 30mph winds
There will be no weather conditions to affect Brady and the Pats. Not a HUGE factor but just something else to think about!!
Question....Would you consider this a Dome??? Its a retractable roof, so will it be open or closed?? I ask becasue if I am not mistaken, Brady has only lost ONE game in a domed stadium in his career. Now I believe that this is natural grass so I am not sure how that affects the dome record with the turf!!! Food for thought!!
posted by thebigmessy
Jan. 31 2008 2:37am -
0 likes
Play on the under and forget about the side!
posted by hilly
Jan. 31 2008 10:32am -
0 likes
If you played for the Pats and against Eli in the last 5 weeks
ATS: you were 0-8
posted by sherlock37
Jan. 31 2008 11:31am -
0 likes
If you play for ELI MAnning in the Superbowl, you are putting your money on a QB that has never played in the big game and who for the first time in his career has strung together more than two games with a QB rating of over 100. A QB rating of 77 and a league leading (tie) 20 Interceptions!
His stats are weak. He was ranked 12th in Passing Yards. 11th in passing Touchdowns and ranked 25 out of 32 in QB rating. Guess who led all three categories???? YUP! He did.
Also, I was looking back and noticed that only two people (posted) were on the Giants last week getting 7.5 vs the Packers. Looked like one post for the Giants +8 vs Dallas.
The more I think about it, the more I am convincing myself that the Pats will crush the Giants.
Eli is good for atleast TWO picks, one possibly returned for a TD. WORDS MARKED!
Good Luck Sherlock....But you are no doubt hating!! ANy of this sound familiar???
How do you not like the Rockies at +200. 21/22 games with Francis at the plate? Too much value here. The only fear is the rust from the layoff. No way I bet the Sox at -210, so I'll take the value here.
_________________
Sherlock
"OMG Bro let it end today. You really don't want it to go to a Dice Fag 7th game do ya?"
Don't you want a 7th game, Messy?
_________________
Sherlock
I'd rather WIN as a HOMER than LOSE as a HATER!!!!!!!!!!!!!
posted by thebigmessy
Jan. 31 2008 12:53pm -
0 likes
OMFG BigMouthy you kill me!!
posted by hilly
Jan. 31 2008 1:06pm -
0 likes
I'd rather WIN with Brady's cock in my pie hole than LOSE as a HATER!!!!!!!!!!!!!
posted by hilly
Jan. 31 2008 1:07pm -
0 likes
I personally could care less who wins or covers. Would actually enjoy seeing the Pats finish it out. Just stay under the number.
posted by hilly
Jan. 31 2008 1:08pm -
0 likes
sorry fellas........giants are now doomed....................
Lang - Super Bowl
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100 DIME
NEW YORK GIANTS
Free Pick - OVER
Final Score: 30-27 Patriots
7 FUN PROP BETS - prices and odds will of course vary
These are not rated selections and do not count toward my profit/loss statement. But so many guys like props I always release a few that I personally enjoy.
1) Coint Toss - Tails
2) National Anthem : OVER 1:42
3) Burress MVP - 8/1
4) Jacobs MVP - 10/1
5) Burress First TD +800
6) Giants score first +155
7) Team to score first won't win game +180
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2008 1:26pm -
0 likes
Tom Brady finished with a league-leading 4,806 passing yards, and for long stretches, New England's aerial attack seemed unstoppable even against solid defenses. Yet impressive as the Flying Elvii passing game was, the numbers posted were not unprecedented.
In acknowlegement:
In 2004, Daunte Culpepper recorded 4,717 passing yards.
In 2002, Rich Gannon led the league with 4,689 passing yards. In 2001, Kurt Warner had 4,830 passing yards.
In 1984, Dan Marino led the league with 5,082 passing yards. In 1981, Dan Fouts compiled 4,802 passing yards.
Culpepper, Gannon, Warner, Marino, Fouts -- of all these quarterbacks with Brady-like performance, none went on to win the Super Bowl that season.
Again its a fact-- the NFL's passing yardage leader has never gone on to win the Super Bowl in the same season. For XLII consecutive years, the passing yardage leader has not been the quarterback to hoist the trophy as the Super Bowl concludes. Never. Maybe this year's Patriots will be the exception. But with passing-yardage leaders 0-for-41 at winning the Super Bowl, the odds seem to be against Brady!
posted by hilly
Jan. 31 2008 1:31pm -
0 likes
Messy,
I think you have some good arguments of why the Pats will win. They are winners, and that’s what they do. Most of your points are based on the entire season’s stats/opinions (except NYG are 13-6 ATS, Pats 10-8), whereas I prefer to use recent history. It’s just a difference of opinion. For instance, the fact that Brady has 5 TDs and 3 ints in the playoffs compared to Eli’s 4 TDs and 0 ints, does not make Eli a better QB. However, it does show that he’s playing more consistently than earlier in the year. So no, I don’t mind backing him and 12 points in the Super Bowl. The Pats have won all three Super Bowls by 3 points.
I’m not sure it was me that used the phrase “Dice Fagâ€, but if you want to bring up previous posts, here are yours from the playoffs.
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:05 pm Post subject:
PATRIOTS----ALL AROUND TONIGHT 1Q -3 1H -7.5 Game -13
Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2008 1:55 am Post subject: AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Believe it or not....I was actually worried about the spread for this game. But thanks to Igor, I realize that the Pats are goona crush the Chargers the saem as they did in week 2....It was 38-14 right??? Weren't Rivers and LT healthy??? Gates played that game also right?? And it wasn't even THAT cold!!
posted by sherlock37
Jan. 31 2008 2:08pm -
0 likes
PS. I don't even like the Giants. I just think they will cover. I try not to bet with my heart, which is why I rarely bet Toronto games.
Either way, I hope it will be a good game.
Messy: Over or under. I need a winner.
posted by sherlock37
Jan. 31 2008 2:13pm -
0 likes
Betting on Super Bowl Jeopardy
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 2/2/2008 at 8:00:00 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The moment of truth has arrived. History calls upon the New England Patriots to be the first 19-0 team for a complete season, while a team from New York is in the unusual role of being an underdog. With an anticipated 100 million viewers, one billion dollars wagered legally in Nevada and over six billion risked worldwide, this promises to be quite a show. While some complain New England being so dominating is bad for the sport, consider what Tiger Woods did for golf. For those betting the Super Bowl, the Patriots being a big favorite is of little consequence.
Let’s ask Alex Trabek (in spirit) to give us the answers to Super Bowl XLII.
The answer: New England easily covers the spread and wins fourth NFL title in seven years, becoming the second undefeated team and first to go 19-0.
The question: If the Patriots play like they did early in the season, are they a lock to beat the oddsmakers and be known as possibly the greatest team of all time?
The answer is very simple if New England rekindles the magic. It’s not like the Patriots have really lost anything other than the emotional edge they had early in the year. In the beginning of the season, they had the feelings of really blowing game to Indianapolis in AFC title game the prior season, Spy-Gate and the accompanying bully talk, which took them to 8-0 straight up and against the spread. After an unbelievable first half, the linemakers and future opponents had seen enough and went to work to devise ways to halt the New England juggernaut. Success was reached on some levels by opposing teams and sportsbooks started recouping lost wagers. New England seemed to settle in just playing football. They took everyone’s best shot, were forced to become a technical boxer, instead of a knockout artist. If the Patriots start hot, this could be reminiscent of the Super Bowls in the 1980’s.
The answer: Save your money and find prop bets that make for sense.
The question: Are the Giants worthy of a money line play?
The opinion among anyone that doesn’t own Giants jersey is New England is a mortal lock to win the game. New York is a healthy +340 and is seeing well over 80 percent of money line action, mostly from “square†bettors. This is like the person that plays all long-shots at the horse track and hits one in 30 and is proud as peacock to brag when they win. Can Tom Coughlin’s crew win; of course, it just seems very unlikely they will, having played Bill Belichick’s bunch only five weeks ago, with two weeks to prepare. With Belichick at the helm, the Patriots are 11-1 SU since the beginning of the 2001 postseason, with two weeks off.
The answer: Based in history, Super Bowls winners have marched and covered spreads to win Lombardi Trophies.
The question: Is covering spreads at the end of the season, important to winning and covering Super Bowls?
What should be of consternation for those still waiting to bet on owner Robert Kraft’s team, is how teams close the season against the spread. By now most everyone realizes New England has failed to cover last five games. In previous Super Bowl wins, the Patriots came into the Big Game on runs of 9-1-1, 6-1 and 4-0 against the spread. Last year’s champion Indianapolis was 3-0 against the oddsmakers number. Also, in this decade, Pittsburgh was 6-0-1 ATS, Tampa Bay 7-2 ATS, Baltimore 9-1 ATS and St. Louis 6-2 against the number. In fact, dating back 15 years, only two teams were even remotely as poor as New England. The 1999 Denver Broncos on the way to second consecutive Super Bowl win were 2-4 ATS to close the season, however did cover both playoff games. The 1995 Dallas Cowboys were 3-3 ATS in last six games, yet like Denver, covered both postseason contests.
The Answer: Over Hill, Over dale, as the teams hit the desert trail, Brady and Manning go rolling along.
The question: In examining the Total, what is the better position to take?
These two teams put up 73 points in less than ideal conditions at Giants Stadium on a chilly Saturday night in late December. This time, two hot quarterbacks will be playing in a controlled weather environment, on a track that expects to be lightning fast, with solid footing. The public assumes New York will want to control the clock against Patriots defense, this is utter nonsense. Coach Coughlin knows running the ball and playing conservative gives his team a nice 10-point loss and pat on the back, with better luck next time. The Giants will have to score, as it is a given the unbeaten Pats will. Coughlin coached teams are 8-0 OVER vs. offensive teams - scoring 29 or more points a game.
The Answer: Randy will gather no Moss, while Burress is bunched.
The question: What is the better prop bet: Randy Moss or Plaxico Burress to go Over receiving yards.
After the game Plaxico Burress had against Green Bay, expect Belichick to design evil schemes to thwart him. Look for Asante Samuel to cover him all over the field. As opposed to the Packers Al Harris, Samuel has the quickness to stay with taller Burress. Patriots’ coaches will want to see if Manning can make other receivers beat them. Randy Moss has as been strangely quiet in the postseason. Against a Giants secondary he had a great deal of success against four games ago; a repeat performance should be expected.
posted by phantom
Jan. 31 2008 6:37pm -
0 likes
"hilly":2lmbb3uz
I'd rather WIN with Brady's cock in my pie hole than LOSE as a HATER!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This coming from the dude that rode the jocks of the following...Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera and the Yanks batboy not to mention that douche-bag Joba the Hut who single-handedly cost the yanks...All that dick riding of a team only to get knocked the fuck out.....LMFAO!!!!!
Shhhhh....I hear the wagon coming!!!
posted by thebigmessy
Feb. 1 2008 3:52am -
0 likes
Just to clarify for you Sherlock.....
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:28 am Post subject:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"OMG Bro let it end today. You really don't want it to go to a Dice Fag 7th game do ya?"
Don't you want a 7th game, Messy?
_________________
Sherlock
That was a QUote....Look it up!
Lets not forget this mysterious bet!!!
Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 12:31 am Post subject:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's a good thing I added a unit on the Sox to win it all at +600 when they were down 3-1
_________________
Sherlock
Now, You can look back all season...I was on the Pats--If it wasnt posted, I was still on them. And I finished up. I finshed up with the Sox and killed the playoffs and series. Now I see you posted my loss on the Pats from two weeks ago....Very nice! I posted based on your hate of Boston teams and Boston bets (Yet you mysteriously won on them +600)!!! I will not even bother backtracking and posting your track record/losses!!! Post my NBA record for this year...Undefeated!!! 2-0 Baby!! And both Celts bets!!! Oh yeah...That NFL Handicapping contest??? I finsihed third...You??? About negative a g-note?? Did I take the Pats for all four of my picks every week??? Shit, not bad for a homer who only plays on heavy favorites!!!!
I can't believe there is so much hate especially with MLK Day just passing!! You guys are awful...Dr. King didnt teach you nuttin!!! I guess if Canada was DOMINATING three of the four major sports leagues I would be a little pissed too!!!! (And hilly would suddenly claim to be an Expos fan!! ....Sorry, I forgot!!)
As for the over/under.....I am not a big total bettor but I will be on the OVER in this game!!! And if you like the Giants....there is no other way to look at it....If the NYG are to cover, the number will go over.
BTW...Manning still sucks!! 3 good games mean shit to me!!!!!! Experience-Experience-Experience!!
posted by thebigmessy
Feb. 1 2008 4:06am -
0 likes
I don't hate betting on Boston teams. In fact, I've made some good coin on the Celts this year.
If I find value, I don't care who the team is.
I'm not a 'hater'. I was cheering for the Pats to beat the Rams in the Superbowl. I wanted the Red Sox to break the curse and cheered for them, Schilling and his bloody sock.
I don't hate Boston teams, but I do find their fans pretty annoying.
They've become no better than Yankee fans.
posted by sherlock37
Feb. 1 2008 10:56am -
0 likes
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=159546 [covers.com]">http://www.covers.com/articles/articles [covers.com] ... Art=159546
As I had mentioned in a previous post....One sack for the Giants vs the Pats with TWO starting lineman out.
If the defensive line can get to Brady, the Giants have a chance. And if they win, Tuck even has his own MVP choice: the defense, particularly the line.
''I'll take our D-line against anybody's offensive line,'' he said. That's just how I feel.''
Well Tuck, the D-Line didn't fare so well with two back-ups in there. I'll take a healthy Pats O-line!!!
posted by thebigmessy
Feb. 1 2008 11:19am -
0 likes
HEAD TO HEAD: PATRIOTS vs GIANTS
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/football/patriots/view.bg?articleid=1070573
posted by thebigmessy
Feb. 1 2008 11:30am -
0 likes
"THEBIGMESSY":ts5rnat9
HEAD TO HEAD: PATRIOTS vs GIANTS
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/football/patriots/view.bg?articleid=1070573
I agree with you 100% bigmessy...but the only thing I can see giant backers saying about this is....that the column was written by boston sports writers. (boston fans) most likely.
posted by close_call
Feb. 1 2008 11:32am -
0 likes
Here's a good one that made me laugh.
http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/story/10612335 [cbs.sportsline.com]">http://cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/story/10612335 [cbs.sportsline.com]>
posted by sherlock37
Feb. 1 2008 12:32pm -
0 likes
NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP
GAME OVERVIEW - Bill Belichick's Patriots were written in as the AFC's Super Bowl team on draft
day & are the only 18-0 team in NFL history. Already loaded with talent the Patriots used the Spygate
scandal to deliver a scorched earth campaign vs the NFL & a win here labels them as the best team
in NFL history. They are now tied with the 1984 49ers & 1985 Bears for most victories in a season
as both finished with 18-1 records. The Giants are 2007's Cinderella team being the 1st ever to win
10 straight road games. The only thing that has slowed NE has been poor weather. In the 10 games
before Thanksgiving avg'd 41.1 ppg with an avg margin of victory of 25 ppg & over the L8 the margin
dropped to 10. NE could to lose several key players in the offseason including Moss, Stallworth, Seau,
Bruschi & Asante Samuel. NYG Coughlin began the season on the hot seat & needed a playoff victory
to return in 2008. Things started poorly as the defense gave up 80 pts in the 1st 2 games but since then
the Giants are 13-4 SU & ATS & the 4th team ever to start 0-2 & make the Super Bowl. For the 2nd
year in a row the Super Bowl will feature a Manning at QB as Eli appears to have turned the corner in
the post season & made this his team. By doing so he & Coughlin have taken big steps to quiet the
critics including former Giant RB Tiki Barber. The Giants success hasn't gone unnoticed in NFL front
offices as 1st year DC Steve Spagnuolo is a strong candidate for the Falcons head coaching job. The
AFC is now 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS in the Super Bowl & in a touch of irony this is the biggest SB line since
Super Bowl XXXVI when the Rams were -14 vs the Patriots.
PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE - Super Bowl XLII will be the 1st SB for the Giants since they were blasted
by the Ravens 34-7 as a 3 pt dog to end the 2000 season. The only remaining players from that team
are Michael Strahan & Amani Toomer. NE brings in 15 players from the AFC Championship game
who were with the team for the 2003 & 2004 SB's. Tedy Bruschi & Troy Brown have been to 4 Super
Bowls with the Patriots including the 1996 loss to Green Bay. Brady is now 14-2 SU & 8-7-1 ATS in
the playoffs with a 100-26 SU record as a starter. Manning is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in the playoffs. Both
teams are stocked with playoff veterans but NE has the most SB & media experience in the NFL &
that gets them the edge here. LARGE EDGE: PATRIOTS
RECORD VS THE SPREAD - The Patriots historic run started off with an 8 game ATS winning streak
as they dominated opponents winning by an average of 26 ppg. Vegas continued to overcompensate &
lines became extremely inflated. They finished the regular season covering just 1 of 6 & then went 0-2
ATS in the Playoffs. The Giants are currently on an 11-4 ATS run & are the first playoff team to win 3
straight road games as an underdog adding to their NFL record 10 game road win streak. The Giants
did drop their last 4 home games & were the only playoff team to lose 2 games by 20+ points as well
as being outgained in 9 games TY. NE has won 13 games this year by DD with 11 games won by 12+
points. The Giants meanwhile have dropped 5 of their 6 losses by DD with 3 of those being by 12+
points. When comparing performances against winning teams NE has a large edge as they finished the
regular season 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS while NY was just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS. Since 1995 there have been 4
DD favorites in the SB with the dog going 3-0-1 ATS & winning outright twice (NE '01 & Den '97) but it
hasn't occurred since the NE upset. The Patriots have played the tougher "marquee" schedule & have
been under the spotlight all season giving them the edge here. SLIGHT EDGE: PATRIOTS
TURF/SITE - This will be the 2nd ever Super Bowl in Arizona with the 1st being SB XXX. University of
Phoenix Stadium opened in August of 2006 & has been named the top NFL venue the L2Y beating
out Lambeau Field. It will be expanded to 73,000 seats for this event & has a retractable roof with a
234 x 430 foot grass field that is rolled outdoors for 350 days a year & indoors for NFL events. The
NFL installs its own grass field called Princess 77 for the SB costing $500,000. Both teams are allotted
12,250 tickets (16.3%) to their fans (season ticket holders) with 5% of the tickets going to the team
hosting the event, 30% shared by the other 30 NFL teams, & 30% is retained by the NFL for sponsors
& special promotions. Neither team has played here & both are FieldTurf teams. Both have fans that
travel well & distance is equal for both teams so this is a true neutral site. EDGE: NONE
GIANTS #16 OFFENSE VS PATRIOTS #4 DEFENSE - It's addition by subtraction for the Giants offense
in 2007. Tiki Barber's retirement was supposed to be a big blow to the run game but the Giants
avg'd 130 ypg (4.4) with 19 rush TD's vs 135 ypg (4.7) & 14 rush TD's LY. The Giants went with a RB
by committee approach for 2007 with Brandon Jacobs being the primary back & while he earned 1164
yds rushing (4.7) he missed 5 games with right knee & hamstring injuries. Derrick Ward did a solid job
in relief with 602 yds (4.
but an ankle injury saw him land on IR. Reuben Droughns (275 yds. 3.2) issimilar in style to Jacobs but he's now a special teams player with the rise of Ahmad Bradshaw who's
success on special teams (23.9 KR avg) got him more time as the 3rd Dn RB. Jacobs & Bradshaw
combined to avg 106 ypg (3.7) in the 3 playoff games. Eli Manning is still a developing QB & his
leadership style & supporting cast is very different from his brother's which because of the NY market
draws a lot of criticism. Prior to the MIN game he only had 2 games with a 100+ QBR & he had 4 int
vs the Vikings with 3 returned for TD's in the loss. He gained a reputation for struggling in cold weather
highlighted by a 32.2 QBR at BUF which was his 1st game without Shockey who landed on IR with
a broken leg vs WAS. The loss of Shockey actually has freed up Manning from forcing the ball to him
& over his L4 games he has avg'd 213 ypg (64%) with an 8-1 ratio (105.1 QBR) with 3 straight 100+
QBR games (prior to GB) for the 1st time in his career. Plaxico Burress comes into this one with 86
rec (14.2) despite playing with torn ankle ligaments & had an outstanding game vs GB with 154 yds
(14.0). Amani Toomer (74, 12.9) rebounded from a torn Achilles & is Manning's prime target on 3rd
Dn. Rookie TE Kevin Boss (13, 12.5) has done a solid job stepping in for Shockey & while WR Steve
Smith has stepped up in the playoffs with 9 rec (11.3) he's still inconsistent. The OL started all 80
together TY but is dinged up a bit as Ctr O'Hara is playing with a knee sprain. They allowed 28 sacks
in the regular season & 6 in the playoffs & have stood up well vs some of the top DE/OLB tandems
over the L3W. They will be key in getting the #4 rush offense going vs NE's #9 rush defense. NE has
allowed 7 games of 100+ yds rushing TY (98 ypg 4.3 on yr) & while they do struggle vs North/South
RB's like Jacobs they held him to 67 yds (4.5) in the 1st meeting & held the Jags to 80 yds (3.6). DE
Richard Seymour (1.5 sacks) had a down year starting out on the PUP but he is still one of the premier
DE's in the NFL & Ty Warren (5 sacks) is opposite him. NT Vince Wilfork (2 sacks) made his 1st Pro
Bowl & is one of the top three 3-4 NT's in the NFL now. While NE has some of the slowest LB's in the
NFL their experience & knowledge of the scheme has them at the right place at the right time & they
remain very effective in sealing the perimeter. Mike Vrabel had a career year (12.5 sacks) & the addition
of Adalius Thomas (6.5 sacks) allowed him to bump to OLB where he is at his best. Tedy Bruschi
(2 sacks) & Junior Seau (4.5 sacks) are the ILB's & both may retire after this game. Asante Samuel (7
int) has established himself as the NFL's best cover CB behind Champ Bailey & will be charged with
covering Burress. Ellis Hobbs (2 int) is the other starting CB & with Samuel playing at a high level he's
been thrown at more TY. SS Rodney Harrison (2 int) is the heart & soul of the secondary & the FS spot
has been split between James Sanders (2 int) & Eugene Wilson (1 int) who has been slowed by an
ankle injury. NE is at a bit of a disadvantage as their top 3 CB's are all 5-11 or smaller while Burress
& Toomer are 6-5 & 6-3 respectively. While Manning will no doubt get advice from his brother & there
some familiarity here the ability of the defense to confuse opposing QB's & experience gets the nod
here especially with an extra week of game planning. SLIGHT EDGE: PATRIOTS
PATRIOTS #1 OFFENSE VS GIANTS #8 DEFENSE - This is potentially where the best matchup &
possibly biggest mismatch of the game will be. The best matchup will be the Patriots OL which allowed
21 sacks (5th) or one every 27.6 pass attempts in the regular season (3 in the playoffs) vs the
Giants DL which tallied an NFL best 53 sacks (1 every 9.9 pass att's) in the regular season but only
3 in the playoffs. The Giants use a 3 DE rotation of Strahan (10 sacks), Umenyiora (13 sacks) & Tuck
(10 sacks) to get to the QB & the 3 have more sacks than 14 NFL teams. The DT's are Fred Robbins
(5.5 sacks) & Barry Cofield (1 sack) who comes out when Tuck is shifted inside. The Giants pass
rush is better than their ranking as the pressure they bring masks a very beaten up DB unit. If they
fail to get to Brady than the biggest mismatch will be the NFL's best QB in 2007 vs the NY secondary.
Brady finished 3rd or better in 10 of the 11 major categories for a QB (tied 7th in int) including TD's
(55), ypa (8.31) & QBR (117.2). Only 4 WR's have caught a pass from Brady TY with Wes Welker
finishing tied for the NFL lead in rec's with 112 in the reg season. Donte' Stallworth started strong but
only had 20 rec & 0 TD in the 2H of the year while Jabar Gaffney had 24 of his 36 rec in the 2H of the
season. Moss lead the NFL with 23 rec TD's & finished 2nd with 1493 yds but has been shutdown
in the playoffs with only 2 rec (16.0). Welker, Stallworth & Gaffney have combined for 25 rec (9.1) in
the playoffs & Kevin Faulk (13 rec, 9.1) has shined as a 3rd Dn RB in the playoffs. TE Ben Watson
has been hurt much of the season but Kyle Brady has made up for it as an outstanding blocking TE.
The success of the passing attack has left Laurence Maroney as an afterthought for most of the year
(reg ssn 835 yds, 4.5) but he has four of his five 100 yd rushing games in his L5 & has avg'd 110 ypg
(5.2) in that span. The Giants #8 rush defense has allowed ten 100 yd rush games (98 ypg 4.3) TY &
Maroney's fresh legs (26th in rush att's) could be a factor. The Giants LB's are very underrated being
balanced vs run & in pass coverage with MLB Antonio Pierce (1 sack) & WLB Kawika Mitchell (3.5
sk) starting all 16 games. SLB Reggie Torbor was promoted after Kiwanuka broke his leg & the DL
pressure allows them to focus on protecting the 2nd level. The secondary is a concern as CB's Aaron
Ross (dislocated shoulder) & Sam Madison (abdomen) are playing hurt & none of the Giants DB's
have started all 16 games TY. RW McQuarters (3 int) is a good #3 CB but the Giants have struggled
with Corey Webster (3 int) & Kevin Dockery (0 int) providing depth. SS Gibril Wilson (4 int) has done
a good job while FS James Butler (1 int) has been serviceable. The key to the game will be in how
NE stands up to the Giants formidable pass rush. Brady was photographed walking in an air cast
after the SD game but will have 2 weeks to heal here. He is very adept at reading defenses & making
the quick pass to defuse the pass rush. Playing in a controlled environment gives NE the edge in the
pass attack but the Giants pass rush shouldn't be underestimated here. EDGE: PATRIOTS
SPECIAL TEAMS - This is a fairly even matchup as the Giants have our #22 special teams unit while the
Patriots have our #19 unit. In terms of hidden yards NE has the edge as they avg'd 9.6 (11th) & 24.1 (4th)
on PR's & KR's vs 7.7 (27th) & 23.8 (7th) for the Giants. NE also has slightly better coverage units allowing
5.4 (2nd) on PR's & 21.6 (11th) on KR's (22nd) vs 5.5 (5th) & 22.8 (22nd) by the Giants. Much of this is
due to NE having a core group of special teamers like LB Izzo supplemented by a roster with players who
could start elsewhere. Neither has a standout Punter as Jeff Feagles 36.0 net avg is tied for 30th & Chris
Hanson's 36.1 net avg is tied for 28th as Brady has more TD passes (55) than Hanson has punts (49).
NE K Gostkowski finished as our #29 rated K TY hitting 84.6% of FG's & wasn't needed much due to the
offensive success. NYG K Tynes overcame 2 bad misses vs GB with the longest FG in Lambeau in the
playoffs for the win LW. He is our #25 rated K for 2007 hitting 84% of FG's. SLIGHT EDGE: PATRIOTS
COACHING - Both coaches are members of the Bill Parcells coaching tree and spent the 1988-1990
seasons together. Coughlin was the WR's coach & Belichick was the DC on the staff of the 1990
Giants team that won SB XXV. Belichick was also the DC of the 1986 Giants team that won SB XXI
vs DEN & has his own lineage of assistants who have gone off to other HC jobs. Josh McDaniels is
in his 7th season with NE & his 2nd as the OC & turned down 2 offers to interview for HC jobs. DC
Dean Pees has been with NE since 2004 & is also in his 2nd year as a coordinator. Giants' OC Kevin
Gilbride is a long time OC in the NFL & the only NFL QB coach Manning has had. DC Spagnuolo was
the Eagles LB coach for 3 years before coming to the Giants & his version of the Eagles scheme is
more protective of his depleted DB corps. NE has more familiarity on the staff & in marquee games
& get the nod here & it remains to be seen if Spagnuolo isn't a 1 year wonder. EDGE: PATRIOTS
PAST HISTORY MATCHUP & INTANGIBLES - This will actually be the 3rd meeting between these
teams as NE beat the Giants 27-20 as a 3.5 pt HF in the last preseason game & 38-35 in the reg season
finale as a 13 pt AF. The Giants had nothing to play for in the season finale but decided to go all in vs
a NE team under pressure for a perfect season. NE scored 22 straight points after being down by 12
in the middle of the 3Q & scored on 7 of 9 drives discounting kneel downs. The Giants pulled to within
3 with 1:04 left but NE recovered the onside kick & ran out the clock. NE had 27-19 FD, 390-316 yd &
36:18-23:42 TOP edges in the game. Manning was very crisp with 251 yds passing (69%) with a 4-1
ratio (118.6 QBR). Brady had 356 yds passing (76%) with a 2-0 ratio. The tandem of Moss & Welker
combined for 17 rec (13.1) & Moss broke Rice's record for TD rec's in a season. The Giants used the
momentum of playing NE tough to push past TB, DAL & GB on the road during their playoff run despite
injuries to Ctr O'Hara & CB Madison. NE is under much more pressure here as they go for their place
in the history books. The Giants will be playing the disrespect card as much of the media will be talking
about NE's dominant season. Their previous performance vs NE gives them a confidence boost that
they can do so again but it is mitigated by Belichick's coaching prowess as he's 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS & 3-6
O/U in the playoffs vs a team he's faced in the regular season. SLIGHT EDGE: GIANTS
CONCLUSION - Let us begin with a handicapping lesson. The Super Bowl is an ISOLATED GAME &
THERE IS LITTLE LINE VALUE!! Many amateurs put their biggest play of the year on the Super Bowl
hence the reason they are amateurs. The best plays you can find are during the regular season when
Vegas posts numbers on 35-40 college games, NFL sides & NFL totals each week. With roughly 70
games to choose from, you can find plenty of solid line value. This week, everyone in the country will
know EVERYTHING about this game & the line will be very sharp. Do not fall into the trap of putting your
biggest play of the year (or even close to it) on the most isolated game of all. Bill Belichick is a history buff & the Patriots are well aware of what this game means in terms of their place in the NFL record books & how a win will essentially make Spygate meaningless. Brady has a chance to join the likes of Bradshaw & Montana as the only QB's to win 4 Super Bowls in their careers & is just entering his prime. NE is 13-5 O/U, 7-2 O/U vs teams with a winning record, 4-0 O/U vs the NFC East & 6-2 O/U on the road TY. The Giants are only 9-9-1 O/U TY, 5-3 O/U vs teams with a winning record, 3-1 O/U vs the AFC East and 3-7-1 O/U on the road with most of the games played in poor weather. The Super Bowl has seen inflated Totals lines in recent years as Vegas has overcompensated for casual fans rooting for scoring & there has been 3 straight Unders. This is an advantage here as the public will perceive the Giants to be a "run to control the clock team." The Giants have avg'd 28 ppg the L5 & can use the run game to open up the pass attack for Manning. The Giants have also faced the NE defense just 4 games ago & Manning will be able to recognize tendencies to
attack. Brady gets to face a depleted Giants secondary that will have to gamble to keep up with the
WR's & Maroney's 122 yds rushing in each of the L2 games will keep them honest. These teams posted
73 points in the season finale & should have similar success in ideal conditions.
FORECAST: OVER 53' RATING: 2★
posted by phantom
Feb. 1 2008 2:07pm -
0 likes
NFL
Long Sheet
Super Bowl XLII
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Sunday, February 3
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NY GIANTS (13 - 6) vs. NEW ENGLAND (18 - 0) - 2/3/2008, 6:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
NY GIANTS are 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Short Sheet
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Sunday, February 3
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Super Bowl XLII
TV: FOX
NY Giants vs. New England, 6:20 ET
NY Giants:
9-2 ATS in road games
8-2 ATS as an underdog
New England:
2-8 ATS off 8+ wins
1-8 ATS off a SU home win / ATS loss
posted by phantom
Feb. 1 2008 2:13pm -
0 likes
NFL
Sunday, February 3
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Tips and Trends
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New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Super Bowl XLII (FOX | 6:30 PM ET)
New York is trying to become the 2nd team in NFL history to win all of its playoff games on the road and then hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy, following the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XL. The Giants have won 10 straight away from home, going 9-1 ATS, with the lone loss coming in a 13-10 victory against Miami in London back on October 28th. EDGE: GIANTS
The Patriots are going for the 1st 19-0 season in NFL history and are already the 1st team to start 18-0. However, after covering their 1st 8 games of the regular season, they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10, including 0-2 in the playoffs with a nearly identical spread as this one. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. EDGE: GIANTS
These teams met in the regular-season finale, which the Giants used as a springboard to the Super Bowl. Some questioned whether or not they would be mentally and physically drained after playing the Patriots hard when they had nothing on the line, but instead they gained a ton of confidence. Quarterback Eli Manning even admitted after winning the NFC Championship that playing competitively against New England in a playoff-type atmosphere is one of the main reasons they earned a rematch in the Super Bowl. EDGE: GIANTS
Manning continues his growth and maturity for the Giants with 8 touchdown passes and just 1 interception in his last 4 games. Ironically, that pick came against the Patriots, who were burned by 4 TD passes as well, 2 of which went to Plaxico Burress. While Manning's development has been crucial, New England QB Tom Brady is clearly in a league of his own as he goes for his 4th Super Bowl title in 4 attempts. Brady has been named Super Bowl MVP twice and is coming off the best regular season of any QB in league history with an NFL-record 50 touchdown passes. EDGE: PATRIOTS
New England is definitely seeing the benefit of a healthy Laurence Maroney, who remains as fresh as any running back the NFL has ever seen in the playoffs. Maroney was very limited for a majority of the regular season, sitting out 3 full games and carrying the ball 15 times or less in 9 other games. Maroney had scored just 2 touchdowns in the 1st 13 games of the regular season, but he has scored at least once in each of the last 5 - scoring 6 total during that stretch - including 2 in the regular-season finale against the Giants. He has rushed for 122 yards in each of the team's 2 playoff games so far on a combined 47 carries. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTS
Patriots are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 40-19-3 ATS in ther last 62 games on grass.
The UNDER is 13-5-1 in New England's last 19 playoff games.
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NFL
Recent Trends
Sunday, February 3
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NFL Recent Trends
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N.Y. Giants (13-6) vs New England (18-0)
New England:
Under is 13-5-1 in NE last 19 playoff games.
NE are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
NE are 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.
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NFL
Sunday, February 3
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NFL In Depth Trends
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Trends – New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher.
Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.
ATS Trends
N.Y. Giants
Giants are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
New England
Patriots are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
O/U Trends
N.Y. Giants
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 playoff games.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games on grass.
Under is 44-19-2 in Giants last 65 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
New England
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games on grass.
Under is 4-1-1 in Patriots last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-1-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall.
Under is 13-5-1 in Patriots last 19 playoff games.
Over is 9-4-1 in Patriots last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
Head to Head
No trends available.
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NFL
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NFL – 5 Statistics
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Five Super Bowl stats you should know
With all the hype about this year’s Super Bowl it’s going to be relatively easy to find the obvious betting statistics, like against the spread and over/under records between the Pats and the Giants.
To give bettors a greater edge in their Super Bowl betting, we’ve gone back through 20 years worth of statistics to bring you a few nuggets of information that could help you make some money.
1. Big favorites have mixed results
The Patriots are hefty 12-point favorites to beat the Giants, which is not surprising for a team that is 18-0. But how have big favorites fared against the spread in past Super Bowls?
Favorites of seven points or more have gone 7-6-1 against the spread in the Super Bowl since the 1986 season, while faves of 10 points or more have gone 4-3-1. Ironically, the biggest spread over that time came in the 2002 clash between St. Louis and New England. The Rams were 14-point favorites, but ended up losing 20-17 to the Pats.
In their next two Super Bowl appearances, the Patriots were seven-point favorites. But they failed to cover on both occasions, beating the Panthers by three in 2004 and the Eagles by three in 2005. In fact, the Pats have been to five Super Bowls in 21 years, but have covered just once.
2. NFC wins battle of the East
Recent history is on the Giants’ side if you look back at Super Bowl matchups between teams from the AFC East and the NFC East.
In the five contests between teams from those divisions in the past 20 years, the NFC East teams are 4-1 straight and 5-0 against the spread, with three of those games going over the total. The Giants were involved in one of those battles, beating the Buffalo Bills 20-19 in 1991.
But the only AFC East team to hand an NFC East franchise a Super Bowl loss over that time was the New England Patriots. They beat the Eagles 24-21 in 2005.
3. Giants home record sets a record
The Giants set an unwanted record this season, becoming the only team in history to make football’s showpiece game, despite having a losing home record.
New York went 3-5 at home this season, losing to Green Bay, Dallas, Minnesota, Washington and New England at Giants Stadium. They lost to the Packers and Dallas by a combined 33 points in those home losses, but it’s worth noting that they defeated both teams on the road in the playoffs.
The home loss to New England will also be a source of encouragement for the Giants. They were only the third team this season to take a lead into the final quarter against the Patriots (28-23), but ended up losing 38-35 because of Tom Brady’s pinpoint passing under pressure.
4. Don’t overlook the total
There have only been five Super Bowls in the last 20 years with a total of 50 or more, with two of them going over the total and the other three going under. The Patriots were involved in one of those games – their 2004 win over Carolina went over the 53-point total.
Of more relevance are the total trends in recent matchups between the Pats and the Giants. Three straight meetings between these teams have gone over, but the totals only ranged from 35 to 46 ½ over that period.
In fact, the 53 ½-point spread between the New England and New York is the highest in well over 10 years and is likely the reaction of oddsmakers to the offensive shootout these teams produced in their last meeting.
5. Successful road teams in the Super Bowl
The New York Giants have won 10 straight road games (a single season record), including three straight in this season’s playoffs. Only five wild-card teams since 1970 have reached the Super Bowl.
The two most recent were the 1986 New England Patriots and the 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots went on to lose the ‘86 final to the Chicago Bears – a 46-10 blowout loss. But the Steelers continued their momentum, defeating Seattle 21-10 as four-point favorites.
Although the Super Bowl is technically at a neutral venue in Arizona, the Giants have been designated as the visiting team.
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NFL
What bettors need to know…….
Sunday, February 3
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What bettors need to know: Giants vs. Patriots
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What bettors need to know: Super Bowl XLII
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET (-12, 53 ½)
Line moves
Some Vegas sportsbooks opened with New England favored by as many as 13 ½ points. Since then, heavy action on New York has moved the line to Patriots -12 at most Vegas and offshore books. The game’s total has held steady between 53 ½ and 54 points.
Brady’s boot
On Monday, Tom Brady was photographed heading from an SUV to his girlfriend Gisele Bundchen's apartment in New York on what looked like a walking cast on his right foot.
"Ah, you know, there's always bumps and bruises. I'll be ready for the Super Bowl," Brady said Monday during his weekly radio appearance on WEEI. "I'm not worried about that. I'm not missing this one. I'd have to be on a stretcher to miss this one. There will be treatment this week. In games like this, you get a little nicked up. It's nothing serious."
Stay tuned for updates.
Raising Arizona
The Super Bowl will be played at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The stadium, which opened Aug. 1, 2006, features a retractable grass field and roof and should accommodate more than 73,000 fans.
Slaying the Giants
New York gave up 80 combined points in its first two games of the season, both of which, not surprisingly, ended up as straight up and ATS losses. Since then, the Giants have held 14 of their last 17 opponents to 24 points or fewer with only Dallas, Minnesota and New England topping that total. The Giants lost all three of those games, covering only against New England in Week 17’s 38-35 loss.
The kicking game
New York’s Lawrence Tynes was 23-of-27 in his field goal attempts in the regular season, with all four of his misses coming on kicks from less than 40 yards out. Tynes missed two huge field goal attempts during the NFC championship game, but he hit the one that counted in overtime from 47 yards. His longest kick of the year was a 48-yarder.
Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski hit 21 of his 24 regular season field goal attempts, with two misses from outside 40 yards. He has only attempted two field goals in the playoffs, hitting one of them. His longest kick of the year was a 45-yarder.
Super stats
The Giants are 5-0 in their last five against the spread and against teams with a winning record.
The Patriots are 0-5 in their last five against the spread.
The favored team has gone 9-3 straight up and 4-6-2 against the spread in the last dozen Super Bowls.
Teams that score more than 27 points in the Super Bowl are 23-1 and 22-2-1 against the spread. New England has averaged 35.6 points per game, while New York averages 23.2.
Recent meetings
The two teams have split the last four meetings between them dating back to 2005, but the Giants covered the number in three of those games. The over cashed in three times as well.
Notable injuries:
New England:
Tom Brady QB - (ankle) probable.
Mike Wright DE - (foot) IR
Rosevelt Colvin LB - (foot) IR
Sammy Morris RB - (chest) IR
David Thomas TE - (foot) IR
New York:
Rich Seubert OG - (knee) questionable
Craig Dahl S - (knee) IR
Jeremy Shockey TE - (leg) IR
Derrick Ward RB – (fibula) IR
Mathias Kiwanuka LB – (leg) IR
Robert Douglas FB – (knee) IR
Adrian Awasom DL – (back) IR
Jim Finn FB – (shoulder) IR
Will Demps SS – (elbow) IR
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NFL
Key Matchups
Sunday, February 3
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Giants vs. Patriots: the key matchups
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Matchups for the Super Bowl between the New York Giants and New England Patriots on Feb. 3 at the University of Phoenix Stadium:
When the Giants have the ball
Having scored 35 points in their season-finale loss to New England, the Giants know they can move the ball on the Patriots. Moving the ball is not enough, though. Nor is kicking field goals. New York must reach the end zone several times, while also trying to use up the clock.
That means Brandon Jacobs (27) and Ahmad Bradshaw (44) running often. Both have been particularly effective down the stretch, with the rookie Bradshaw breaking some long runs. New England is most vulnerable in that area, although calling the Patriots' run defense a weakness would be an exaggeration.
Linebackers Tedy Bruschi (54), Mike Vrabel (50), Junior Seau (55) and Adalius Thomas (96) will be kept busy by those running backs. The Giants could be without left guard Rich Seubert (69), who hurt his knee, which won't help against the assortment of defensive linemen New England uses. The star is Richard Seymour (93), who missed half the season recovering from a knee injury and has not been particularly dynamic yet. But Ty Warren (94) and Vince Wilfork (75) certainly have been, and Jarvis Green (97) provides depth up front.
New York's blocking has been superb in the playoffs, providing ample protection for Eli Manning (10) and opening wide holes for the running backs. Tackle David Diehl (66) and guard Chris Snee (76) have been particularly impressive.
If Manning gets the same amount of time he's received recently, his hookups with WRs Plaxico Burress (17) and Amani Toomer (81), and rookies Steve Smith (12) and TE Kevin Boss (89) will give the Patriots plenty of trouble. Burress is not the deep threat the Patriots' Randy Moss (81) provides, but he's nearly as dangerous because of his size, good hands and athletic ability. Burress also has been at his healthiest recently, which makes him a matchup problem for Asante Samuel (22) and Ellis Hobbs (27).
Manning has been at his most accurate, playing the best football of his four-year career. His playoff numbers - particularly four touchdowns to no interceptions and a 99.2 rating - are worthy of brother Peyton, last year's Super Bowl MVP.
When the Patriots have the ball
Unquestionably, the key for New York is slowing Moss, who overwhelmed Giants cornerbacks and safeties in the last meeting. Moss had six receptions for 100 yards and two TDs as he broke Jerry Rice's NFL mark with 23 touchdown catches. While Corey Webster (23) has made some big plays in the postseason, he'll need help from Gibril Wilson (28) and the other safeties. The Giants must be aggressive in their approach against Moss.
Of course, that usually leaves Wes Welker (83) with single coverage, and Welker can be destructive on underneath routes. He had 11 catches for 122 yards in the season finale.
There's also Donte' Stallworth (18) and Jabar Gaffney (10) for New York cornerbacks Webster, Sam Madison (29), rookie Aaron Ross (31) and R.W. McQuarters (25) to deal with. The safeties have to handle tight end Benjamin Watson (84), who's extremely dangerous in the red zone.
Plus, there's RB Kevin Faulk (33) on screens, flares and other short passes he turns into decent gains, particularly on first down. Faulk also is terrific on third downs for the highest-scoring offense in league history.
Faulk won't do a lot of running with RB Laurence Maroney (39) now a focal point of the offense. Maroney has run for 244 yards and two TDs and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Engineering it all is the league MVP, Tom Brady (12), who is 3-0 in Super Bowls, twice earning MVP honors. Unless the Giants get ample pressure on Brady with their standout linemen - Michael Strahan (92), Osi Umenyiora (72), Justin Tuck (91) and Fred Robbins (98) - and linebacker Antonio Pierce (58), Brady might get a third individual trophy.
Brady supposedly has a slight ankle injury. Or maybe coach Bill Belichick invented that to make his superb offensive line even stauncher in their protection. Tackle Matt Light (72), guard Logan Mankins (70) and center Dan Koppen (67) are the standouts.
Special Teams
Adam Vinatieri played a leading role in all three Patriots Super Bowl victories, and then won a title with Indianapolis last year. Now Stephen Gostkowski (3) does the placekicking, and he's money.
Lawrence Tynes (9) was inconsistent in his first year with the Giants, and he missed two potential winning field goals at frigid Green Bay in the title game. But he made a 47-yarder to send New York to the Super Bowl.
Patriots punter Chris Hanson (6) didn't get used much during the season, and his gross average in the playoffs is 38.0 yards, less than 20-year veteran Jeff Feagles' net. Feagles (18) is appearing in his first Super Bowl despite two decades in the league.
Neither team has dangerous threats on kick or punt returns, although Domenik Hixon (87) has given the Giants a late-season spark. Hobbs had a 108-yard kickoff return, but that was in the opener.
Coaching
A matchup of former colleagues with the Giants under Bill Parcells. Belichick has won three titles with the Patriots and, given two weeks to prepare for a team, he is virtually unbeatable. Then again, his team has been totally unbeatable this season.
The 2007 Coach of the Year despite the Spygate scandal that cost him a $500,000 league fine, Belichick will come up with a variety of defensive schemes to confuse Manning. His offense will be full-throttle all game.
Coughlin's work this season has been very impressive, too. The Giants were 8-8 in 2006 and barely squeezed into the playoffs, where they lost in the first round. Another such performance might have led to his firing.
Instead, he's improved his relationship with the players and, during the postseason, he's developed solid game plans that the Giants have executed magnificently. Coughlin heads to his first Super Bowl as a head coach with a contract extension certain.
Intangibles
New York simply doesn't lose on the road, and the Giants are the designated away team at University of Phoenix Stadium. They've won 10 straight away games, and they have outplayed all three opponents in the playoffs on both sides of the ball.
Don't forget that they tested the Patriots on Dec. 29, even led by 12 points in the third quarter. And all the pressure is on New England.
Not that the Patriots care about pressure. They are the, uh, perfect example of a team that responds to whatever challenge. This is the best version of any of the Pats teams to make the Super Bowl this decade, and their undefeated record has placed them in a glaring spotlight for months.
New England is experienced, well-rounded and incredibly focused on this championship.
posted by phantom
Feb. 1 2008 2:13pm -
0 likes
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
A FUNNY THING HAPPENED ON THE WAY TO THE SUPER BOWL!
I hadn't planned on talking about the Super Bowl until we got closer to game day. But, the early action has been so intense in Las Vegas and Reno that I wanted to provide a quick update.
The exact OPPOSITE of what many expected to happen occurred as soon as the lines went up. There was some general thought that New England would be about a two-touchdown favorite over the Giants...and that the line would go UP right away to something approaching 16 or 17. Now, I'm not saying that EVERYBODY thought this was going to happen. But, if you listed to the talk in the sportsbooks, this was the prevailing line of thought.
The game would open around -14.
The Patriots would get bet up right away by early public money and sharps (Vegas professionals) wanted to stake a position on a key number
You could get the Giants at +16 or even +17 if you waited awhile
Most of the public thought this. Many sharps did too. As is normally the case, the public was thinking about how to get the favorite at an affordable price. The sharps were looking at how to maximize the value of an underdog bet. At least, that's what everyone "said" they were thinking. Once the number went up on the board, here's what happened.
Nobody wanted the Patriots!
The public, who had just watched the NY Giants play very well for the third week in a row (by the way, my only service release in the football that day was the Giants +7.5), decided that 14 points was just too much for a neutral site game. Patriots' fans didn't want to lay that many points. Giants' fans gladly took the number thinking it was a gift.
The sharps, who wanted New York all along, suddenly realized that the line WASN'T going to go up! They had better get +14 while it was available because there was no guarantee they would see it again. So much for waiting for +16 of +17. So much for taking an early position on the Pats. About the ONLY money on New England was from position takers, and they were outnumbered by Giant backers who wanted the two touchdowns.
It was clear that the line was going to come down. The position takers bought out of their plays and swallowed some juice (you can't have a big play on New England -14 and NY Giants +13 because if it lands on one of those numbers you lose big). There was almost a panic buying effect on the Giants. Get them now before the good numbers are gone!
The line went down to +13, and Giants money STILL kept coming in! Who knows how low the line would go? New York was playing its best football of the year right now. New England has only covered two spreads in the last ten weeks. When they faced each other in the regular season, the Pats only won by three. There were plenty of Nevada sports bettors who were okay at +13.
The line is currently New England -12.
Just when you thought you've seen everything...
It's very uncharacteristic for money to be coming in AGAINST a team that's been hyped by the media for weeks, particularly one with a chance to make history. The public rushes to those teams like moths to a lamp. What happened here?
People who have been betting on New England a lot lately are BROKE! The lines have been way too high for a couple of months. Even if they wanted to bet the Pats in the big game, they don't have the money right now. Or, if they have something left, they're tired of losing every week. It's like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown in those old "Peanuts" comics. Patriots' bettors have been frustrated and lying on their backs for two months.
People who have been betting on the Giants lately are RICH! They cashed the season finale against the Patriots, and they won three games outright as underdogs in the playoffs. Of course, those guys are going to keep betting!
There's a perception in Vegas that "New York money" eventually finds its way to Vegas if you know what I mean. If you don't, I'm not explaining it! The sharps realized that the early money was on the Giants, and that even MORE money from New York may be coming in during the course of the fortnight. The sharps knew they didn't want to take +14 if they were going to see +16 later in the week. But, if the line was only going to be +11 later on, they'd better get down quick at +14 or +13.
All the computer guys in town were showing edges for the Giants just because a computer isn't going to make one playoff caliber team a 14-point favorite on a neutral site over another one. Once those guys saw what was happening, they acted early too. The public, and the sharps, and the syndicates all wanted the Giants at the same time. Anybody who wanted the Pats was low on funds.
Is the line going to stay at New England -12 the rest of the way? I wouldn' be surprised to see some late money come in on the Patriots. The public does like favorites, particularly in the Super Bowl. Many just won't be able to help themselves. But, the Giants backers are pretty serious, as are the syndicates. They can't justify a number this high on neutral field. If the public hits the Pats, it may only get back to 13 before the Giants money moves again. I'm very interested to see what happens.
On the weekend of the big game, I'll go over some of the reasons why the sharps like the Giants, and I'll try to find some props that they're playing. We'll also have a better sense of where the line is going to settle. It could turn out that some sharps flip over to New England if we see a continued drop. You can't ever assume the most recent surprise was the LAST surprise!
The total is currently sitting at 53.5 or 54 in most places after opening at 55. This was kind of a mini-version of the team side story. Pats backers will like the Over because of the offense. Giants backers will like the Under because the defense has played well in the playoffs. There was less money involved, but it was the same story. I think we'll see some movement here between now and the next time we talk football.
That's the Super Bowl news from out here.
posted by phantom
Feb. 1 2008 2:17pm -
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EA SPORTS revealed their prediction for the outcome of the highly anticipated Super Bowl XLII game. Based on simulations using the award winning Madden NFL 08 video game, the New England Patriots were victorious over the New York Giants by a narrow margin of eight points with a final score of 38-30. Over the past five years, EA SPORTS has a perfect record predicting the winner of the Super Bowl.
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2008 11:24am -
0 likes
brandon lovell
quintuple your wager game of career
50* patriots -7 1st half
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2008 11:25am -
0 likes
AKMENS ( 11-2 * ):
40* NEW ENGLAND
10* OVER
PSYCHIC ( 9-3 * ):
EXECUTIVE NFL 400% or higher ( 14-5 ):
BURNS ( 10-0 in SuperBowls ):
NEW ENGLAND
TEDDY COVERS ( 13-2 Season ):
NY GIANTS
Total - OVER
posted by phantom
Feb. 2 2008 11:27am