PC7588 POST SEASON PLAYS
Play #1:
Roll with me on Pittsburgh +3 @ home against Jacksonville.
I know everyone loves Jville but there are reasons for this play:
1. Big Ben is 6-1 in the playoffs SU
2. I personally believe it is very difficult to win 2 road games in the same venue.
3. Troy will be playing safety for the Steelers.
4. Najeh is a better back up (and a different runner) than people think. With the game planning time, I think your gonna be surprised how well Najeh runs today.
5. Pitt has both Holmes and Ward available.
6. Gerrard has never started a post season game and has 8 career pass attempts lifetime in the post season.
7. The pub is absolutely hammering on Jville.
8. Historically and trend wise, home teams in the first round of the playoffs usually do well ATS. Don't know the exact number but this trend usually holds true.
With all that being said, I think that Jville has a chance to win and cover. But I won't bet against the Steelers at home in the playoffs with the matchup we have at qb. The Jags team that beat Pittsburgh 29-22 didn't face Troy, they didn't have Heinz ward, and the Jags ran all over them. If nothing else, Pitt is gonna force Jville to throw to beat them. Should be a tight game but I really do expect the Steelers to win outright.
ROLL WITH ME ON PITTSBURGH +3
Play #1:
Good luck this post season.
posted by pc7588
5 replies
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We hit easily (just kidding, I was sweating my cajones off) on the Steelers yesterday.
1-0 ATS
Today:
I am rollin over 39 1/2 (take up to 40 1/2) in Tampa Bay/ New York. A friend of mine down here and I spoke at length yesterday about the playoffs and agreed that the NFL is really trying to buck trends. Last 5 years (as mentioned yesterday) the first round home teams usually cover ATS..well..they both covered again on Wild card Saturday.
I'm taking the over based on some of these facts:
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS on the over in their last 5. (Keep in mind Garcia missed two of those games)
Garcia is usually a great gamer in the playoffs. In games he has started his teams have averaged 27.8 games over his career. (Again, take this with a grain of salt, great Niners teams and playing from behind as a sub).
I get a lot of local coverage on the Bucs. This isn't your traditional Bucs team. The defense has gotten pillaged in some games and they are not the monsters of St. pete from years past. The offense, however, is also new school and this bodes very well for Tampa. I'm tellin ya, today's game is going to turn into a shoot out.
Notice I haven't even mentioned the Giants. Brandon Jacobs is the kind of back that gives a smaller quicker defense like Tampa Bay fits. He will have a good game barring injury. I talked about the quick Bucs defense. You can ask anyone I fantasy ball with, I hate Eli Manning and think he lives off of his brother's name. He can't win the big games but he can score and get you points. This Giants offense is good enough to get us the over and Eli will help with a fumble or interception(s). I like this over and so does the pub but I can't see a reason to get away from it.
GL today.
PC's post season play #2:
Tampa Bay/G Men over 39 1/2 (you can still get this line but hurry, it's going up.)
PC7588 post season NFL 2008: 1-0 ATS
posted by pc7588
Jan. 6 2008 10:48am -
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I shoulda, coulda, woulda..oh well 1-1 ATS..there goes the perfect post season$$
Anyways..1-1 ATS on the post season,
Play #3: Seattle +8 -115...I like the hawks in the bad weather. They know how to play in high winds and bad weather as well. GB and Favre should win, but I don't know if they beat Holmgren and company by 8. I would take this down to 7 because I know there are a lot of different lines out there. I've seen between 7 and 8 so far and obviously booked the one I got most value on.
Anyways, Seattle has talent and has flown under the radar. The Packers are obviously a good football team to do what they have done this year. But I'm rollin the Seahawks in what should be a very bad weather game.
Seattle+8
Play #4: I told MC I was only playing one but I had to take Seattle and in the nightcap I have to play the under. Brady and Company will get theirs and they will win the game, but Del Rio will slow it down and pound the run. the Jags D is good enough to get in Brady's face but he should torch them once or twice on deep plays against the Blitz. I gotta play the under because it's just getting hammered on the over which does look like the play. It's interesting but I've been watching the line since Thursday and it's just not budging..if anything it's gone down since I last checked. But two unpopular plays today that I'm advocating.
Jville under 50 1/2
posted by pc7588
Jan. 12 2008 2:40pm -
0 likes
Sorry for the 0-2 yesterday..I did much better but lost on this posted.
1-3 ATS in NFL post season
Today:
Chargers +11...even though Gates is out I like the fact that the Chargers run to Freeney's side of the defense. Oh wait, Freeney's out for the year. LT will get me this cover today.
San Diego +11
I'm not playing on the Cowboys game..GL all.
posted by pc7588
Jan. 13 2008 12:25pm -
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I got two today:
Roll with me on Green Bay over 41 as the BEST BET. Brandon jacobs will be a handful for the Pack to bring down and it should be just enough to get Eli throwin the rock with some accuracy. Favre is a good cold weather QB and Eli is much better in bad weather than people know. I expect this game to hit easily for us.
ROLL WITH ME ON GREEN BAY OVER 41
I hate to say it, but I'm with Messy. After some subpar performances, the Patriots should be bringing a loaded muzzled off shotgun to today's matchup. And I disagree, Billy Volek is no Phillip Rivers, or he would have earned his starting jobs in Tennessee, Dallas, or San Diego. If Phillip doesn't play, I don't think the Chargers stand a chance against a smart coach like Billi.
Be Grudgingly, Patriots -13 1/2 for me. ( I bought a 1/2 point, it's currently at 14 on bookmaker.)
GL all
PC:
GB Over 41
Pats -13 1/2
Have a good one.
posted by pc7588
Jan. 20 2008 8:22am -
0 likes
3-4 ATS on the post season:
Props:
Welker over 75 1/2 receiving yards...2 units
Jacobs over 61 rushing yards...1.5 units
Over 54 1/2 for the game..4 units
GL
posted by pc7588
Feb. 3 2008 4:30pm