nfl sunday 12/30
DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
It might be a historic weekend, and it might not. But, it's definitely a weekend that has Las Vegas sharps being very careful about how they handle their money. I know many guys that just take the last regular season weekend off because their indicators don't mean anything.
Math models don't spit out accurate data if the teams aren't going to be playing at 100% intensity.
Trends and angles don't mean anything unless they're specifically tied to Week 17 databases.
Even what the coaches are saying don't always mean anything because coaches have been known to lie in past seasons!
It's a week to be cautious. In a way, that's good news for YOU. That means that any sharp move we're seeing has been very seriously thought out, and is likely to have a little extra meaning. Nobody's chasing anything this weekend. Nobody's playing a bunch of action for fun. Longtime sharps tried that when they were younger and got hurt!
Let's see what the sharps are thinking about this weekend's NFL games...
NEW ENGLAND AT NY GIANTS: The sharps were waiting to hear how much the Giants starters were going to play. As it sounded later in the week like they were going to take the game seriously, money has been coming in on the dog here. The line has dropped from New England -14.5 to -13.5. The sharps definitely like anything at +14 or better with the dog. They've done well going against the Patriots in recent weeks, and will probably keep doing that through the playoffs. The total has jumped from 44.5 up to 47. Apparently the weather isn't currently expected to be awful. With New England guys going for individual records, we could see a high scoring game. The sharps wouldn't take the Over at this current price, but did at lower prices.
BUFFALO AT PHILADELPHIA: This line hasn't moved at all, and the sharps really aren't interested in getting involved. There just aren't any strong reasons either way to make a stand. That may happen a few more times in our rundown. Just remember that passing a game is a sign of strength and discipline, not a sign of weakness.
CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY: Carolina has moved from pick-em to -3, which tells you that the sharps are very confident the home team is in the tank here. It would be impossible to bet the Panthers otherwise at this line obviously. I don't think you'll see many sharps laying more than a field goal in these kinds of games. But, they were comfortable with Carolina at anything less than that.
CINCINNATI AT MIAMI: I've been seeing some Miami action late in the week. The line dropped from Miami +3 to Miami +2.5. You regulars know that any line that sits at 2.5 for awhile is telling you that money is on the underdog. That may be an overreaction to all the news about Bill Parcells going to practice and intimidating everybody. Considering that Cincinnati may be firing people by New Year's, that may be a good thing! We may see more money come in on the Dolphins before kickoff. A consensus is starting to build that this will be a good week for them.
DALLAS AT WASHINGTON: This line has pretty much been sitting at -9 for the Redskins since it was widely available. Some early places had lower numbers. This high number was meant to discourage action. The public will have to pay a premium to bet the must-win team. Right now, the sharps aren't touching this game. They've been burned in the past taking dogs in spots like this figuring professional pride will keep the game close. Dallas has bigger fish to fry.
DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: This line has been going up recently. It sat at Green Bay -3 most of the week, but is now up to -4.5 or so. That suggests that Green Bay is going to let its starters see substantial action. The public doesn't bet this early in the week. Somebody important heard something important! You might still have to sweat the fourth quarter if Green Bay gets a lead. But, the sharps have taken a stand at -3 and -4 within the last 24 hours or so.
JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON: Houston's been getting a lot of action. The line jumped from -4 to -6.5 during the course of the week. This is definitely a vote for the Texans closing the season on a high note. Everyone was impressed with how they moved the ball at home against Denver two weeks ago. If resting Jacksonville is as bad as Denver, then Houston is going to win easily again. It's odd to see a big move on a team with nothing at stake. The fact that it happened tells you that the sharps are fairly confident of this play.
NEW ORLEANS AT CHICAGO: There's not much interest in this one right now. Nobody wants to bet the Bears the week after a win over Green Bay. And, New Orleans does technically need the win in case Washington and Minnesota both lose. Tough to go against a must-win team with a bad opponent when only getting a point. But, nobody wants to bet New Orleans either. Asking a dome team to win in cold weather is rarely smart. So far, a pass on the side and total. Bad weather would bring Under money from out of the woodwork.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: The line dropped from Pittsburgh -3.5 to -3 -120 when it was announced that Ben Roethlisberger isn't going to play. That's not a big move...but anything involving the magic number of 3 usually carries some authority. Vegas sharps know that Baltimore is the worst money team this year in the NFL in terms of pointspreads. They're involved quietly here. You just can't bet big on the Ravens. And, you can't lay points on the road with a backup quarterback in a rivalry game either.
SEATTLE AT ATLANTA: This line has done some jumping around. Atlanta opened as a small favorite, but went up to -3 at midweek. Then, news broke that Seattle wasn't going to lay down and rest for the playoffs, inspiring a lot of Seahawks action. I was a little surprised everyone bet Seattle. This is a jet weary team that has to play next week. It would be dumb for them to go all out this week. Maybe Mike Holmgren was bluffing. Maybe not. The sharps took the playoff bound at +3 with the hopes that he wasn't bluffing.
SAN FRANCISCO AT CLEVELAND: Here's another indicator suggesting mild weather. The total here went UP two points, from 39.5 to 41.5. How often do you see that in the bad weather cities in December. San Francisco got hit as a dog at +11.5, as we're now seeing +10.5. New broke late in the week that Chris Weinke might have to start at quarterback. Nobody in this town is in love with him. I don't expect much more action here unless additional news breaks.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: You already know about the big move here. Tennessee "officially" opened at -4 and went to -6. The outlaw places had them much lower. Clearly there was an expectation that Indy is going to lay down, while Tennessee has to go all out so they can reach the playoffs. Nobody wants to lay more than six with the poor Tennessee offense. But, the sharps and public alike were okay with laying numbers under six. They've seen poor results from Indy in Week 17 in the past. I can tell you now that Indy will be getting a lot of respect in their playoff games in this town.
MINNESOTA AT DENVER: Not much action here. The game is sitting on a field goal, and everyone seems to think that's the right number. I'd say most Vegas sharps expect Washington to beat Dallas this week, so nobody's doing much investing in the other possibilities.
SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND: The line has come down a shade from the opener of San Diego -9. I'm seeing 8's right now in some places. Sharps love home divisional underdogs, and they saw Oakland play well against other divisional teams in recent weeks. Don't forget the sharps were on Cincinnati plus the points last week against Cleveland last week in a somewhat similar spot. I can tell you many guys are concerned about Jamarcus Russell though. He was horrible at Jacksonville, and would have thrown more interceptions but the Jags defenders kept dropping balls. If he had been more impressive last week, we would have seen a much bigger line move in this spot.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: If this game were cancelled, nobody in Vegas would notice. Nobody's interested in getting involved. I'd be surprised if that changed between now and kickoff.
KANSAS CITY AT NY JETS: I saw a move to the Under right before writing this up, as a total of 35 dropped to 34 in places. Not sure what that's about giving Saturday Night's total in the same stadium going up. Maybe the weather is supposed to get worse a day later. Remember that this won't be a night game. The schedule was changed so NBC could show Tennessee at Indy in prime time. I don't think we'll see much action here unless news breaks.