THE MAX
NFL
Thursday, December 13th, 2007
Broncos @Texans under 47
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
This is a meaningful game for this pair of 6-7 teams,
as if the season was over right now, a 7-6 team
would be an AFC Wild Card team. Though there are
teams ahead of them, the winner will move to 7-7
and will still be alive (though in need of help) in the
playoff chase. With relatively inexperienced teams,
especially at quarterback, playing in a meaningful
big game, don’t be surprised at all if both of these
coaches go conservative and have trouble trusting
their young play callers. Mike Shanahan in particular
may struggle to cut Jay Cutler loose. Cutler is a
much better quarterback at home than he is on the
road, with a 12/6 TD to INT ratio at home but
struggling on that road with only 5 touchdown
passes to 6 interceptions. Denver’s D is playing
better than people realize. On Sunday 10 of Kansas
City’s 12 possessions were 3 plays or less. And
while that was against a horrendously weak offense,
they’re previous two games weren’t nearly as poor
defensively as it appeared. At Oakland, turnover
inside of their own territory led to 31 of the Raiders
34 points, and at Chicago you’ll recall that special
teams miscues resulted in three Bears TD’s.
Sage Rosenfels has played better than Matt Schaub
(higher rating, better TD/INT ratio) and with
Schaub’s dislocated shoulder, the backup is
supposed to go again here. But when you look
inside the Texans box score on Sunday, it does not
inspire confidence that an offensive surge is on the
way. The Texans scored four TD’s on Sunday, and
three involved events other than impressive
offensive drives. Houston scored on a kickoff return
for a touchdown to start the second half and two of
their touchdown “drives†were 23 and 17 yards.
They gained less than 4 yards per play on Sunday in
what on the surface seems to be an offensively
productive win but was actually anything else.
Meanwhile their young defense continues to be
better than people realize. With both teams
possessing better D’s than people realize, young
unproven quarterbacks in a big game, and these two
teams playing games with a lot of accidental points
lately, we’ll look for this game to go under the total
Sunday, December 16th, 2007
@Dolphins (+3½) over Ravens
Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare
As a technical handicapper it has been difficult to
stay away from the Dolphins almost on a weekly
basis. As soon as Miami hit the 0-5 mark a lot of
sensible, longstanding technical material came into
play. And as long as the Dolphins kept losing, the
same systems kept popping up the next weekend,
calling the tech-minded capper like a siren. I'm
going to try and make a case for a play on Miami
WITHOUT resorting to some trumped up version of
the systems that other handicappers have bandied
about over the past two months.
Bad teams generally carry pretty bad habits, and the
Dolphins are no exception. Instead of truly playing
one game at a time, bad NFL teams sometimes peek
ahead on the schedule to see if the following week's
game is against a beatable opponent. Of particular
interest here is what happens when an elite
opponent is on deck. The curious result is the bad
team will often play inspired ball, probably on the
assumption they have little chance the next week.
Miami has a game against undefeated New England
on tap, and its fair to say the line on the Patriots
could well rise above -24. This scheduling quirk
triggers a 106-44 ATS "lookahead" system that
features bad teams that have premier opponents
waiting in the wings. This system is 3-2 ATS in 2007,
with its last occurrence on these same Dolphins as
they covered as +11 over Philadelphia in a 17-7 loss
back on November 18. And what was on deck for
Miami after the Philly game? That now renowned
mud bowl on Monday night against Pittsburgh.
The Dolphins should come into this game in much
better physical shape than the Ravens. Baltimore
enters off four consecutive games against winning
opponents (Indianapolis, New England, San Diego
and Cleveland) whose combined record is 40-12.
Miami's previous two opponents have a combined
record of just 10-16. This stark difference triggers a
101-50 ATS general NFL system that wins with
teams that are simply fresher from having faced
relatively weak opposition.
As bad as the Dolphins are this is only the first
season under the current regime. The same coaches
will likely be around next season, so players should
be worried about their 2008 jobs. And no one
wearing a Miami uniform will be able to get away
from the media comparisons of them with the undefeated Dolphins' squad of 1972. There is plenty
of motivation for Miami. But it really looks as though
the Ravens are trying to get their coach Brian Billick
fired. A loss at Miami would almost certainly seal the
deal. Take the points in what should be a snoozer of
a game. Miami by 3
Bills (+5½) over @Browns
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
Coming into this season, neither a crystal ball nor
the best physic in the world could have predicted
that this game would have huge playoff implications.
The Bills and Browns? Well it is a huge game for
both after both won again last week while the Titans
gave away a win to the Chargers. Cleveland
currently sits in the #6 spot in the wildcard race at
8-5, but they are just one game ahead of the Bills
who are 7-6. So if Buffalo can win this game, the
two would be tied for the final spot. But we don’t
need the Bills to win here. We just need a close
game, and with the importance it has and the fact
that neither team has been in this situation before,
both teams will feel the pressure, which will result in
a game that’s decided late.
Buffalo has won six of their last eight, and their
confidence is sky high according to rookie
quarterback Trent Edwards: "We're starting to
believe in what the coaches are saying and what the
team leaders are saying. We feel pretty confident
right now." And they should considering this. Five
of their six losses have come against the leagues
best: Pittsburgh, New England twice, Dallas, and
Jacksonville. The other loss was a 15-14 decision to
Denver in the season opener. The Bills allowed 36.2
points per game and 443 yards per game in those
defeats. But there’s no shame there because those
5 teams are doing it to everybody. In their 7 wins
which all came against either equal or lesser
competition, the Bills allowed just 13.5 points per
game and 291 yards per game. And the defensive
difference in the wins and losses is huge. How
about a better than 3 touchdown difference in points
allowed (22.7 points per game) and a football field
and a half less in yardage allowed (152 yards per
game). Buffalo’s offensive numbers are close to the
same in their wins and losses, they are not good not
matter which way you slice it.
Cleveland has also won 6 of their last 8, but
according to Jamal Lewis, their job is done: "We're
in the playoffs right now." Not quite J-Lew, you still
have 3 games to play. And the way their defense
allows points, a bad offense like Buffalo should be
able to put up points. Taking out the 2 games vs.
Pittsburgh and the one vs. New England, the Browns
defense allows similar defensive numbers. Overall,
they allow 27.4 points per game vs. 25.7 without the
Steelers and Patriots while the yardage is 389 to
huge defensive edge over Cleveland. Lower scoring The bottom line here is that Buffalo holds a
huge defensive edge over Cleveland. Lower scoring
games are usually played when playoff implications
are on the line, and that would also favor the Bills.
These two also played 4 common opponents at the
same venues, and the line evaluation greatly favors
the Bills. At Pittsburgh, both teams were 10-point
underdogs. At home vs. the Bengals, Buffalo was
just a 1-point dog while the Browns were a 7½-
point dog. Also at home, the Bills were a 3-point
dog to the Ravens while the Browns were a 4-point
dog. The only difference came at the Jets where
Buffalo was a 3-point dog and Cleveland laid 3½ last
week. That line history tells us that these two are
rated real close in the eye of the linesmaker so the
points look real juicy here. Bills by 1.
Jaguars (+4) over @Steelers
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
In this intriguing battle of 9-4 clubs, we simply feel
that Jacksonville is the better team than Pittsburgh.
A lot of their numbers both offensively and
defensively are very similar, but there are two things
that make us rate Jacksonville higher. First of all,
the Jags lost their quarterback for almost four full
games, and it was a big dropoff to backup Quinn
Gray. Jack del Rio decided on David Garrard in the
preseason, cut loose Byron Leftwich, and it was
absolutely the right decision. Garrard has continued
to avoid interceptions and has been extremely
efficient overall. 65% completions and 13 TD’s to
only a single interception are tremendous numbers.
The second factor is the strength of schedule. We
shouldn’t punish the Steelers too severely for getting
squashed by the top team in football on the road.
And we shouldn’t laud the Jags too much for rolling
over one of the worst teams in the league at home,
the reality is that the Steelers have played a
significantly easier schedule than the Jaguars have.
So similar numbers without their QB for four games
and against a stronger schedule actually favor
Jacksonville.
And right now, the Jaguars are playing their best
football of the season. In their big win over
Carolina, Marcus Stroud turned an ankle in his first
game back from his performance enhancing drugs
suspension, and his status is unclear for this
weekend, but everything else was good. Fred
Taylor ran wild, with a power and burst that belies
his age. Cornerback Rashean Mathis shut down
Steve Smith. The Jaguars have excellent special
teams play, not only at the skill positions, but
possessing the league’s #1 kickoff coverage unit as
well. The Steelers are obviously a very sound team,
but overrated by playing a lot of nationally televised
games against some poor teams. The Jaguars are a
very sound team that gets far less publicity. Jags
by 3.
@Giants (-4½) over Redskins
Selection and analysis by Erik Scheponik
Sure, this would be a great story if Washington
could pull this one off and stay in the NFC playoff
race, considering all that this team has been through
the last couple of weeks. They rallied tremendously
against Chicago in an emotional win last week,
keeping their postseason hopes alive. However, in
retrospect perhaps the best thing they could have
done was get back out on the field rather quickly
with two games within 10 days of the Sean Taylor
tragedy. Now they have had some extra time for
things to sink in, and although I don’t want to play
psychologist here, I’m not sure I can trust this team
from a betting standpoint. There has to be a
letdown sooner or later. Even if they can somehow
keep bringing it every week, are they good enough
to beat the Giants? A win over Chicago certainly
doesn’t mean much nowadays, and although Todd
Collins looked excellent in relief of Jason Campbell
last week, what opposing QB hasn’t looked good
against Chicago lately? The Skins must now take to
the road and beat one of the NFL’s top 10 teams
without their offensive and defensive leaders, a very
tall task indeed.
The Giants have not played particularly well at home
this year (3-3 SU/ATS as compared to 5-1 SU/4-
2ATS on the road) but I think that will only serve to
motivate them here today. They answered a couple
of gut checks the last two weeks on the road after
losing a fluky game at home to Minnesota a couple
of weeks back. Their other 3 losses on the season
are to Dallas twice and Green Bay, and as they
continue to get healthy, it is apparent that there
really aren’t many holes on this team. The Giants
have had the talent for a while now, but that talent
is finally translating to wins. They remember their
collapse down the stretch last season, and with a
road game at red-hot Buffalo and New England at
home to close out the season, I expect complete
focus here as they try to lock up a home playoff
game. They have won and covered 3 straight
against Washington, and Eli Manning is playing the
best ball of his career. Their pass rush is among the
league’s best and could cause problems for backup
QB Collins, who really had an easy time of it against
the Bears.
Washington will give a huge effort here, but it
simply won’t be enough. They are playing against a
superior opponent, and you have to wonder how
much will be left in the tank if/when they fall behind.
NY Giants by 10
Monday, December 16th, 2007
Bears (+9½) over @Vikings
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Another less than scintillating matchup for the poor
ESPN crew. The Bears didn’t play badly in their loss
to the Redskins last Thursday. They outgained the
Redskins 356-345 and enjoyed a 22-15 first down
advantage. They lost the turnover battle 2-1 and
that hurt them. Obviously the Bears have fallen
victim to the Super Bowl loser hex and are merely
playing out the string. But there is reason to
expect a big (for them) performance out of them
here. All kinds of poor matchups have dimmed the
luster of Monday Night Football in the eyes of the
sporting public. But the players know that this is the
one game each week that is being watched by their
colleagues across the league. And at this time of
the year with a team out of the mix the players
know that the coaches and personnel folks around
the league are watching as well, and with a lot of
Bears probably on their way to other places next
season it wouldn’t hurt to give those folks a head
start on making a positive impression before they do
their player evaluation and make it a positive. Kyle
Orton gets the start here and really, is that a
downgrade? The guy hasn’t really played since being
a serviceable game-manager a couple of years ago.
He was very limited then, but maybe he’s learned
something in the past couple of years.
We pointed out how the Bears had some
advantages in their Thursday night loss that didn’t
make it to the scoreboard. When you look inside
the Vikings win over the Niners in San Francisco on
Sunday, it is jarring to see how little Minnesota
actually did. The Vikings gained only 280 yards and
had all kinds of trouble sustaining offense, notching
only 11 first downs. Chester Taylor popped a 84-
yard TD run but on the other 55 offensive plays the
Vikings gained only 196 yards, including 33 yards
rushing on 30 carries (Adrian Peterson had only 3
yards rushing on 14 carries). The Niners handed
them a short INT return TD on the game’s first play
and from there on it was a cakewalk to beat the
worst offensive team in the league. The offense did
little other than that long Taylor TD run the rest of
the game. It was a “silver platter†game that the
49ers basically handed to the VIkes.
The Vikings do have the better offense and the
better defense. But that’s why this line opened at 10
before wisely being bet down. And getting nearly
double digits with a team that was -3½ early in their Super
Bowl year here last season seems to have some inherent
value. With the extra time off (Thursday to Monday night
is the longest possible rest in the NFL without a bye week)
and with their colleagues around the league watching this
one, expect the Bears to give a top effort. But it speaks to
how far Chicago has fallen that the top effort won’t be
enough to get the win. Vikings by only 4.
Momentum Favorite: Play on any NFL road favorite that scored at least 40 points in the
previous game now facing a team that won S/U as an underdog in the last game.
Pointspread Record Since 1996: 11-4 (73%)
This week’s application: Denver Broncos over Houston Texans
Roger and out (in honor of Roger King): Play against any NFL favorite in their final road
game of the season, with BB home games on deck, versus an opponent off a loss.
Pointspread Record since 1980: 13-3 (81%)
This week’s application: Oakland Raiders (play against the Indianapolis Colts)
