GOLD SHEET CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL

Saturday,December 8

MARQUETTE over *Wisconsin (Day Game)...G-oriented Marquette at size disadvantage vs. Wisconsin. But veteran Warriors (all 5 starters

back) will effectively use their uptempo attack & aggressive defense, just as smaller, quicker Duke did in 82-58 home win vs. Badgers on Nov.

27. Marquette’s imperturbable sr. PG D. James (15 ppg, 3 apg, 42% treys) will score, dish & keep squad composed in hostile Kohl Center, while

Big East Defensive Player of Year, 6-3 sr. G McNeal (16 ppg, 4 apg), hounds Wiscy’s new go-to scorer, 6-1 soph G Hughes (18 ppg). Badgers

miss “T&T Boys” (departed stars 6-7 F Tucker & G Taylor) in Warrior payback game. MARQUETTE 73 - *Wisconsin 60 RATING - 11

TEXAS over *Rice...Wrong place, wrong time scenario for Willis Wilson’s rebuilding Rice bunch that is having a hard time adjusting to life

without graduated sharpshooter Morris Almond (NBA 1st-round draftee). With Owls hitting only 34% from floor (and icy 28% beyond arc) and

suffering numerous one-sided beatings already, the last thing Rice needs is to face a roaring Texas squad that’s flying high after win at topranked

UCLA. Horns’ firepower (85 ppg) and accuracy (54% from floor!) way too much for Owls to handle.

TEXAS 96 - *Rice 57 RATING - 10 (at Toyota Center)

BOSTON over *Chicago (NBA)...Intense Boston has cooled off a bit vs. the points, but Chicago has problems the Celtics will exploit. Bulls are

last in the league in scoring and are shooting horrendous 39.7% (also ranks last). Interestingly, Boston is playing the best defense in the

league, holding foes to 87 ppg & 40.5% (both league lows). Both teams played last night, but Chicago is 0-3 when unrested, while the Celtics

covered 3 of first 4 playing 2nd of back-to-back games. Celtics competence too much for struggling Bulls.

BOSTON 100 - *Chicago 82 RATING – 10

Scott Spreitzer's CBB 25* Saturday Slam Dunk! *51-15, 77% ATS!

I'm laying the lumber with the Longhorns. The season of futility that began in the off-season, continues for the Rice Owls. Two assistant coaches left the program this past summer, and even coach Willis Wilson searched for a different address after 15 seasons in Houston. But Wilson didn't get the jobs he interviewed for, and reluctantly returned for season 16 at Rice. The Owls lost their top three scorers from last season and also have no one to lead the team at the point. Three different guards have taken a turn as floor general. None have panned out. In fact, every player who has appeared in more than one game for Rice has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio! I played against Rice earlier this season and cashed an 86-59 win with single-digit fave, Duquesne. While we are obviously paying a more expensive price this time, I expect another absolute blowout. Texas is seriously piling up the points, showing that there's life in Austin after Kevin Durant. The Longhorns are 8-0 to start the season, winning by an average score of 91.3-to-68.5 in their last six. Unlike Rice, Texas has strong leadership in the backcourt. Abrams, Augustin, and Mason are averaging a combined 11.8 assists per game, with just 5.7 turnovers per night. Five players are scoring between 11 and 19 PPG. Texas has also shown, they can win at any pace. The athletic and uptempo Longhorns beat UCLA at Bruin-speed (63-61) one of two wins at a slower pace. Rice will try to slow things down, but don't own the leadership on the floor to dictate the pace. The Longhorns are off for the next six days with a date next Saturday against Texas State, so there are no distractions from this one. UT beat a better Rice squad by 27 points two seasons ago. I expect an even bigger beaddown on Saturday. I'm laying the points with the Longhorns, my 25* release. Thanks! GL! Scott.

CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL RELEASES FOR THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 7-13, 2007

Sunday,December 9

*VIRGINIA TECH over George Washington (Day Game)...With rebuilding GW desperately looking for a creator on offense now that promising soph PG T. King is out for year with knee injury, support athletic VT squad getting ever-improving play at that critical position from explosive, speed-changing frosh PG Thorns (nearly 4 apg) & 6-3 combo G Delaney (8 ppg, 3 apg). And with prized 6-7 frosh F J. Allen (13 ppg, 7 rpg) complementing vet Fs Vassallo (16 ppg, 44% from arc) & D. Washington (13 ppg, 6 rpg) to give Hokies their best forecourt since joining ACC 4 years ago, mistake-prone Colonials (40 TOs vs. last 2 major foes) fall in Blacksburg. *VIRGINIA TECH 82 - George Washington 69 RATING – 11

Listed below are the best and worst head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13 thru 16,

minimum 6 results (current affliation in parenthesis). We recommend you keep this list right beside your schedule as it’s as good a way to find the winner's circle as any at this stage of the season

HOME AWAY

Belichick (NE) 15-6 FOX (PANTHERS) 8-3

Lewis (Cin) 1-6-1 DUNGY (IND) 7-15

Fox (Caro) 3-6

Gruden (TB) 6-11

FAVORITE DOG

Jauron (Buff) 5-2 HOLMGREN (SEA) 13-6 LEWIS (CIN) 2-5

Smith (Chi) 2-5-1 REID (PHIL) 11-6 PHILLIPS (DAL) 5-9

Turner (SD) 5-11 GIBBS (WASH) 28-15

Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition

NFL Week 14

12/07/2007 11:01 AM EST

by Daniel Fabrizio SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 14

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 13 was lucky for the sportsbook industry but not so lucky for our Games to Watch feature. Handle sizes were up with a lot of marquee match-ups in Week 13. Most sportsbooks reported holding over 5% of their handle. Buffalo beating Washington outright broke up a lot of 1pm Parlay/Teaser actions. While Arizona and Oakland winning broke up all the late “junk.” The Public tried to recoup Sunday’s loses by pounding the “piggy bank” called New England. Forget about the 19pt spread: the Patriots were lucky to escape with a win.

The Public posted another losing Sunday. They’ve lost 11 out of the last 12 Sundays. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 2-4. For the season, that makes the Public 42-51-8 = 45.2%. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued its downward trend, going 0-3 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 21-14-2 = 60.0%.

Looking Ahead to this Week

Look for handle sizes to taper off as the Public is licking its wounds from last Sunday. We anticipate Dallas, San Diego, Minnesota, and New Orleans to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 14 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans

With more than 3 out of 4 bets coming in on the Chargers, the point spread has actually moved from pick’em to Tennessee -1 at some sportsbooks. We spoke to our line-makers at the sportsbooks – who confirm “sharp money” on the Titans.

As “value investors,” the Sports Marketwatch is always on the lookout for an edge in terms of “value.” The Chargers were one of the preseason Superbowl favorites – with superstar “LT” looking unstoppable. The Chargers stumbled out of the gate – but we believe their resurgence has created an “overvalued” Charger team.

Our readers know that we like to “Bet Against the Public” and look for sports marketplace “situations” that signal “smart money” – just like this. The Titans are tough at home – so grab the pick’em line while you can.

Tennessee Titans Pick’em

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets

The New York Jets present a similar “smart money” situation that the Titans show above. “Joe Public” is overwhelmingly on Cleveland, to the tune of 81%! With less than 4 out of 5 bets coming in on the lowly Jets – the line has actually moved towards the Jets.

The line opened at Cleveland -3.5 and has had a huge move off of the “key” -3.5 to the -3.0 level. Big, “sharp,” money is coming in on the NY Jets. We also like the fact that the Jets are home dogs – that are starting to show some signs of life with a promising young QB.

New York Jets +3.5 (SportsInteraction.com)

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

Our weekly readers know that some of our plays require a bottle of Pepto Bismol nearby. We often need bad teams to do good things – and this is a classic example.

We see “contrarian value” by selling the Vikings “on a high” – particularly after their 42-10 blowout win over Detroit. The Vikings have now won three in a row – and have their stud rookie RB, Adrian Peterson back. The Public is all over Minnesota – and that creates value for the other side.

The 3-9 SF 49ers don’t look like much of a challenge, but this is exactly the type of “ugly game” where value can be found. Historically, home dogs near the end of the NFL season have some teeth to go with their bark. Take the 49ers plus the “near-double-digit-points” – plus a shot of Pepto. Near game-time, the spread might widen to +10.

San Francisco 49ers +9.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 14.

Games to Watch (21-14-2)

Tennessee Titans Pick’em

New York Jets +3.5

San Francisco 49ers +9.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch. enjoy the games!

MTi’s Teaser Play of the Week

MTi’s Teaser Play of the Week won last week. To start this week’s Three-Teamer, we’ll borrow a play from the Side section and take the Raiders. Oakland is 31-0 ATSp10 after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. Next, we’ll add the other side play by taking the Lions up another

ten points. Detroit is 23-0 ATSp10 as a dog when they lost by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks. Finally we’ll take the total in the Titans - Chargers game down ten points because not only are the Titans 25-0 OUm10 as a home dog, the Chargers are 27-0 OUm10 when they are facing a team that has

allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date.

That makes our 3-team, 10-point teaser for this week: 4-Star Oakland +20, Detroit +10’, Tennessee OVER 31

HOUSTON VS TAMPA BAY

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

TAMPA BAY/HOUSTON: Nothing to report here. Everyone's waiting for some kind of confirmation about the Tampa Bay quarterback situation. Houston will definitely have its backup QB going this week. I think it's going to be hard for many guys to get involved unless they here Jeff Garcia feels great and is ready to go. It's hard to ask a backup QB to have two great games in a row on the road. It's hard to ask Houston to do anything right now. They've looked flat the last two games. I'm sorry there are so many quiet games to report on this week. All the excitement really was on Pittsburgh and the Under against New England. And, there are some dogs that will become news on Sunday once the public drives the lines up.

SUPER BEST BET

*HOUSTON over TAMPA BAY by 21

How do you beat the Tampa Bay defense? With a bowling ball between the tackles that circumvents their pass rush and avoids their zone coverage. Rise up, Ron Dayne, from the NFL living dead of running back options. Dayne actually had 86 yards on 18 carries in last week’s loss by Houston at Tennessee, so a productive game by the former Heisman winner would not be completely out of left field. The Bucs are off a hard-fought win against division-rival New Orleans. With four games remaining on the schedule, they now lead the NFC South by three games over Carolina, a team that died weeks ago, and New Orleans, against whom the Bucs are 2-0 in 2007. Tampa Bay is a commanding 4- 0 within its division and 7-2 in NFC play, and this non-conference game affects neither of those potential tie-breaking records. To sum it all up, this is the least important game on the Bucs’ schedule. When a team invests as much time and energy on the division as the Bucs have, and their investment has paid off as well as it has to date, the team has earned the right to take a week off – or, so the team thinks. The schedule, however, says they have to play a game on artificial turf in Houston with a third-string running back and possibly Luke McCown starting at quarterback. They got away with it last Sunday but will very surprising if they get away with it here. HOUSTON, 31-10.

HOUSTON 23 - Tampa Bay 17—Buccaneers rule the NFC South, where they’re 4-0 SU & vs. the spread. But they’re just 4-4 vs. the rest of the league. And Houston’s young defenders (Mario Williams 8½ sacks; Amobe Okoye 5) rarely make things easy for foes. T.B. QB Luke McCown surprised New Orleans for 313 YR and 34 YR in his first start in three years. Sage Rosenfels

has proven to be a capable backup QB for Houston.

DONNIE BLACK

BEST BET

Tampa Bay at Houston +1 O/U 40

Recommendation: Houston

Tampa Bay got a near flawless performance from backup QB Luke McCown last week as he relieved Jeff Garcia and Bruce Gradkowski (who was largely ineffective in relief himself two weeks ago). Mc-Cown completed 29-of-37 passes for 313 yards and led the team to three TDs including the game winner with 14 seconds left to all but cash their ticket as NFC South Champions. The Bucs, behind their second ranked scoring defense, outgained the Saints last week by over 220 yards, but they should feel fortunate to have come away with a win after recovering a fumble on an ill-advised reverse play late in the fourth quarter, and converting on fourth down later in the ensuing game winning drive. But they can’t possibly expect another performance like that from their QB, even if Jeff Garcia returns (at less than 100%) and they certainly can’t expect a gift wrapped win on the road once again. Houston may be without Matt Schaub but Sage Rosenfels has shown good chemistry with his wideouts in spot duty thus far, and has actually posted numbers comparable to Schaub (83.9 QB rating vs. 87.2). Look for the Texans to come up big after back-to-back road losses as Tampa takes a breather with their playoff berth all but guaranteed.

Tampa Bay 7-3 Game Thirteen… 2-12 A vs opp off BB SU losses

HOUSTON 8-2 off BB SUATS losses vs non div opp

Bucs 36.3 35.8 1-5 UNDER after Saints

TEXANS 44.9 40.7 1-4 UNDER home vs NFC South

JAX VS CAROLINA

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

CAROLINA/JACKSONVILLE: There hasn't been much action in this one. The sharps generally take double digit dogs when they can. So, they wouldn't act right away on an underdog like this if they were going to play. They'd wait and hope the public drove the line even higher on game day. That's my sense of this one. In fact, this could end up being a popular play if the line goes to +11 or better. The sharps are skeptical of the Jags as big favorites. And, the fact that Carolina finally played well last week should encourage them to take the big number here. This is a case were a lack of early action is telling you a big play may be on the horizon. The sharps are waiting for a better number, but they're going to be on the double digit dog

BEST BET

*JACKSONVILLE over CAROLINA by 24

The pitiful Panthers showed some signs of life last week against an even worse 49er team, but travel to face a talented and angry Jaguars team. Carolina has actually managed an impressive 4-2 record on the road this season, but all four of those wins came

in the first six weeks of the year. Lots of things have gone south for the Panthers since week six. The Jags, once again, came this close to dethroning the Colts for the AFC South title but fell three points short. They’ll take little solace in the effort and look to work out their frustrations against the non-conference opponent visiting this weekend. The Jacksonville running attack should find plenty of room to run against a Panthers defense that gives up an average of 112 yards on the ground. Carolina has not fared well against the AFC South this season, losing games to Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee without putting up much of a fight. This week’s scenario does them no favors by matching them up with a Jaguars team gearing into playoff mode and intent on proving themselves after losing a big game last week. Vinny Testaverde won the dinosaur match-up vs. Trent Dilfer last Sunday. Good for him. JACKSONVILLE 34-10.

****BEST BET

Carolina over *Jacksonville by 10 (WINNING POINTS)

There’s one thing the Panthers can do and that’s win away from home. Carolina has knocked off Arizona,Atlanta,New Orleans and St. Louis on the road this year.The Panthers are at their best as a road underdog, especially in December where they have covered 13 of the past 15 times in this role. Consequently, Jacksonville is at its worst laying a big price.The Jaguars have been double-digit chalk four times during the last three years.They’ve failed to cover every time, including laying 10 this season to the Falcons.

Jacksonville managed only to beat Atlanta, 13-7.The Jaguars are a conservative team that wins playing good defense, running the ball and limiting mistakes. That means taking few shots downfield.This philosophy fits their personnel, but is not necessarily good for covering a large pointspread. The Panthers are not devoid of talent. Julius Peppers is an elite defensive end. Linebacker Jon Beason is a candidate for defensive rookie of the year. Steve Smith remains a dangerous playmaker. After fiddling around with totally ineffective David Carr, Panthers coach John Fox fully realizes 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde gives his team the best opportunity to win. The Panthers had no confidence when the battered Carr was under center. They have a much better attitude and downfield threat with Testaverde. Smith plays better. So do running backs DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. One reason

why the Panthers play better on the road is less pressure.The onus is on Jacksonville. Don’t be surprised if the Jaguars don’t respond well this week. Jacksonville played well at Indianapolis last Sunday, but still lost. That defeat, in all probability, ended the Jaguars’AFC South Division title hopes. The Jaguars have a key road tilt next week at Pittsburgh.This interconference

matchup isn’t big on their radar screen. CAROLINA 24-14.

***JACKSONVILLE 27 - Carolina 6—Carolina apparently better off with

44-year-old Vinny Testaverde at QB than either alternative (punchy David Carr or rookie Matt Moore) at John Fox’s disposal. But upon closer inspection, Panthers’ only shining moments last 7 weeks have been against the QB-shy Cardinals (mostly Tim Rattay in that game) and the offense-poor 49ers. The resurrection of dormant Carolina pass rush last week (6 sacks) more an indictment of S.F. OL woes than anything else. Jax QB David Garrard (only one pick TY) mostly mistake-free and Jags still on wild card trajectory, so ground game should roll.

4 Star Jacksonville 37-16 (NORTH COAST)

Carolina DEC: 13-2 RD’s… 6-1 Game Thirteen vs non div opp

JACKSONVILLE 1-5 DD favs off SU loss (0-1 this year)… 2-8 bef Steelers

5★ BEST BET

Carolina over JACKSONVILLE by 3

Jags return home off close-call loss against Indianapolis while Panthers take to the road after romping past the 49ers last Sunday. The major challenge at hand for Jack Del Rio’s club will be in attempting to become the fi rst Jacksonville squad in team history to bring home the bacon as a favorite in games after taking on the mighty Colts (0-6 ATS). Meanwhile, Carolina dresses up as a dog knowing they are 14-2-1 ATS as road dogs against a foe off a loss. They are also 13-2 ATS as road dogs in December. Toss in our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK (page 2) and you have the makings of a live dog taking on a dead favorite. We’ll take live over dead, every time.

Panthers 37.4 40.0 1-4 UNDER off BB home gms

JAGUARS 37.5 42.2 1-5 UNDER H w/ OU line 36 < pts

The League is 9-0 OU (11.3 ppg) since October 08, 2006 as a 7+ dog the week after a straight up win at home as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. (CAR)

DALLAS VS DETROIT

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

DALLAS/DETROIT: There's less enthusiasm for Detroit than there is for Carolina at the similar price. Dallas is a blowout team while Jacksonville isn't. And, Detroit is still collapsing while Carolina looks to have snapped out their free fall last week. This line did see some initial early action on Dallas. My information says that's from guys trying to set up a middle. The public is much more likely to bet on Dallas than Jacksonville in a big way, so these guys wanted a piece of Dallas early, then they would hope to buy back on Detroit if they see something as high as +13 or so. I do expect some old school types to take the big home dog Sunday morning. There's just too much of a history for them to buck. They won with Buffalo over Dallas that way. They lost with Buffalo over New England that way. They won with Baltimore over New England. It might be 50/50 this year, but they're going to keep trying. My early read is that there's more enthusiasm for Carolina than Detroit in those similarly priced games

RECOMMENDED

DALLAS over *DETROIT by 21

The proverbial goose looks positively cooked in Detroit, where the early season hopes brewed by a 6-2 start have vanished in the smoke of a smoldering four-game slide. The Detroit offense was dealt another blow when leading receiver Roy Williams was felled by a knee injury that makes him questionable for this week’s contest. In actuality, it’s debatable as to whether his presence would matter in the final outcome anyway. Dallas has looked nearly unbeatable for most of the season, taking on all comers – except for the New England Patriots, of course. The Cowboys formula is simple: throw early and often then close out games with the strong running of Marion Barber. The Dallas defense has also played exceptionally well this year, relying on their bevy of pass rushers to consistently harass opposing quarterbacks while limiting running backs to an average of 84 yards per game – fourth best in the NFL. Greg Ellis and DeMarcus Ware have already notched 10+ sacks each and facing a Mike Martz-coached offense should see these hybrid DE/LBs finding plenty of opportunities to rush the passer. Martz is notorious for flooding the field with receivers to the detriment of the pass protection, but never seems to adjust regardless of how many hits his QB ends up taking. For the record, Jon Kitna has been sacked a league-leading 44 times. Dallas will add several to that tally in this road victory. DALLAS 35-14.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-rated games): DALLAS (-11½) at Detroit—Cowboys’ healthy OL, attacking defense, and fine chemistry keep them rolling

despite the 10-day layoff from previous game.

MARTY OTTO

BEST BET

Dallas at Detroit +10.5 O/U 51.5

Recommendation: Detroit

The free falling Lions are playing themselves out of a playoff spot as losers of four straight. Detroit was manhandled at the line of scrimmage last week as the Vikings tallied 440 yards (200-plus on the ground and through the air) and scored TDs on their first six possessions. The Lions offense is sputtering as Kitna’s TD rate goes down and the INT rate increases, a seven to seven ratio in his last five games while the defense has been torched for 30 points or more in three of the last four losses. They now face a Dallas team that is ranked as the NFL’s second best total and scoring offense, led by Tony Romo and Terrell Owens. Romo has earned every penny of his new contract thus far as he completes 66% of his pass attempts having racked up 3,352 yards with 33 TDs against just 14 INTs. He has 15 multi-TD games and only one game in which he threw multiple INTs. But where Dallas excels and keeps foes guessing is with their ability to mix in Marion Barber and Julius Jones behind a massive offensive line. But while they will hold very real advantages in multiple areas this week, the Cowboys shouldn’t take your money this week. No, they are coming off the biggest hyped game they have played this year, and they won in convincing fashion. They are fat and happy and comfortable after three straight home wins, and may be caught looking ahead to another showdown with rival Philly next week. We’ll back the Lions in an inflated range as everyone else bails ship to give us a nice double digit spread to work with.

Dallas SERIES: 4-1 L5… DEC: 1-7 A vs non div opp off SU loss

DETROIT 9-59 H when lose SU… 1-6 vs opp w/ rev off DD SU win

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

PLAY AGAINST any Game 13 NFL team off back-to-back SUATS wins if they scored 35 > pts and won the last game by 10 > pts versus a .454 > opponent. PLAY AGAINST: DALLAS COWBOYS

Cowboys 45.7 47.2 6-1 OVER non-div RF 3 > pts

LIONS 42.0 44.5 5-0 OVER off BB div gms 5* OVER

Dallas 31 - DETROIT 13—Amazingly, Detroit’s debilitating 4-game skid hasn’t eliminated it from wide-open NFC wild card chase. But allowing NFLworst 50 sacks (revolving door at RT not helping; ex-Bronco George Foster has been a huge bust) and gaining a few inches per carry in some recent outings will scotch Lions’ playoff hopes and Jon Kitna’s promise of 10 wins soon enough.

Meanwhile, Dallas’ main concern is honing its edge for playoffs. And with Romo (33 TDP) & T.O. (14 TDC) red hot, Detroit’s fading defense should oblige.

MTi’s Side Play of the Week!!

5-Star DETROIT +10 over Dallas—The Cowboys beat the Packers 37-27 on Thursday Night last week as a TD+ home favorite. Dallas was up by double-digits at the half and coasted home in the second half. Teams that win easily as a TD+ favorite and are laying at least a TD again can be very vulnerable to overconfidence and a lackadaisical attitude. Indeed, the league as a whole is 8-30-1 ATS (-6.8 ppg) as a 7+ favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a TD+ home favorite. The Cowboys themselves are 0-5 ATS on the road when they were up by

at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a TD+ favorite. We expect that the Cowboys are especially susceptible to this “cocky” attitude and are very likely to get surprised by a Lions’ team that will come to play. Yes the Cowboys are undefeated on the road this season. However,

they are 0-8 ATS as a road 7+ favorite when they won their last two road games, falling short of the linesmakers’ expectations by an average

of 12.7 ppg. This potent team trend has already been active this season. In week 5 the Cowboys were 2-0 on the road so far in the season and

were laying 10 points in Buffalo on Monday Night. Dallas needed a TD with 24 seconds remaining, a recovered on-side kick and then a 53-yard yard field goal as time expired just to eke out a 25-24 victory. We have a very similar scenario here. Detroit has fallen on tough times. They have lost and failed to

cover four straight after starting the season 6-2. The playoffs looked like a cinch and now they are a longshot. However, the Lions, led by tough-as-nails Kitna do not throw in the towel. When they are wounded and not given any respect, they are at their most dangerous. In fact, Detroit is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a 7+ dog when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. Last season the Patriots needed a 15-point fourth quarter to come from behind to beat the Lions 28-21 as a 13’ point underdog in this spot. In addition, the Lions are 6-0 ATS as an underdog by more than a touchdown when they lost by at least a TD in each of the past two weeks. Even if Dallas does get a double digit lead, Jon Kitna has the tools and the receivers to quickly get back inside the number. Grab the double-digits, as the pretty-boy, cock-sure, annoying Cowboys are just the team to motivate the angered Lions.

MTi’s FORECAST: DETROIT 27 Dallas 21

The League is 0-13 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since October 15, 1995 as a home 7+ dog the week after a straight up loss in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. (DET)

The League is 8-0 OU (13.2 ppg) since December 20, 2004 as a road 7+ favorite when they had a positive takeaway margin in each of their last three games. (DAL, IND)

The League is 10-0 OU (12.2 ppg) since December 12, 1993 as a 7+ dog when they are 500 after game seven on the road. (DET)

MTi’s ATS Trend of the Week

Dallas is 11-1 this season and undefeated on the road. This week they are a heavy favorite in Detroit. This is not a good spot to back them. The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS (-12.7 ppg) as a road 7+ favorite when they won their last two road games. This trend has already been active this season. In week 5 the Cowboys were laying 10 in Buffalo on Monday Night. Dallas needed a TD with 24 seconds remaining, a recovered on-side kick and then a 53-yard yard field goal as time expired to eke out a 25-24 victory. This week’s OU Trend of the week indicates a play against the Cowboys and thus ON the Detroit Lions.

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

SAN DIEGO/TENNESSEE: San Diego opened at -1, and is now down to pick-em. So, that's a slight move to Tennessee. But, action died after the move. The sharps are seeing this as a true pick-em right now. Unless the public acts on Sunday, I don't expect to see much sharp action on the team side. The total has come down a tick from the opener. Weather may encourage that further downward. A lot of sharps got hurt last week going against San Diego with the Chiefs. They're not in the mood to tempt fate again.

TENNESSE VS SAN DIEGO

RECOMMENDED

*TENNESSEE over SAN DIEGO by 8

Norv Stram now has most of the NFL right where he wants it: looking away from him and San Diego’s 7-5 record – the worst record among the four AFC division-leaders, but still two games and a head-to-head win better than nearest pursuer, 5-7 SU Denver. However, the one guy staring at him is also 7-5 SU and is not in a position to win his division. Therefore, Titans’ head coach Jeff Fisher can sell this game as the biggest of the season to his players, who can get to 8-5 SU and legitimate Wild Card contention status with Jacksonville and Cleveland by protecting home field against a visitor that is 0-4 SU and ATS in non-division road games this season. "We just kept applying pressure the whole game and we didn't let up," said Chargers’ Shawne Merriman about the win in Kansas City last week, accomplished against sub-par statue quarterbacks, a lousy offensive line and back-up running backs. Tennessee’s offensive line is solid and Vince Young is a wild card player at the quarterback position. Tennessee’s offense is up from 16 first downs per game to 17 this season, while San Diego’s is down from 20 to 18. Young can

do more with his legs than Phillip Rivers can. TENNESSEE, 29-21.

**PREFERRED

*Tennessee over San Diego by 10

The Chargers have seized control of the weak AFC West, but have yet to establish a consistent passing attack and have covered just two of their last eight away contests. Vince Young is the kind of quarterback San Diego’s speed pass rushers can’t catch up to. Young’s passing is getting sharper every week.The Titans have an inside-outside rushing tandem of LenDale White and Chris Brown to keep the Chargers on their heels. Star defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth returned last Sunday for Tennessee after missing

three games with a groin injury.The difference was amazing when he wasn’t in the lineup.The Titans surrendered 97 points in the three games Haynesworth missed. Their run defense is top-notch when Haynesworth plays, which is crucial in bottling up LaDainian Tomlinson. Philip Rivers isn’t enough of a playmaker to lead San Diego to a road victory unless he’s getting a major contribution from Tomlinson. Flying from the West Coast to Nashville for an early start time is a major negative for the Chargers.The last

time they had to do that was three weeks ago at Jacksonville and they were flat in a 24-17 loss. The Titans also have a huge coaching edge with Jeff Fisher going against Norv Turner.TENNESSEE 20-10.

THE GOLD SHEET

TENNESSEE by 10 over San Diego

***TENNESSEE 27 - San Diego 17—Are back-to-back wins over the troubled Ravens & Chiefs an indicator that beleaguered Norv Turner finally has San Diego back on track? Perhaps, especially since L.T. getting 25-30 touches per game lately. But Philip Rivers (once coached at NC State by current Tenn. o.c. Norm Chow) still blowing hot and cold, and Bolts’ only success TY vs. a

winning team was its fluke-fest vs. Indy (Peyton six ints.!). Key DT Albert Haynesworth back in action last week. And ex-Bear Justin Gage (22 catches last 4 games) emerging as reliable target for Vince Young.

ERIN RYNNING

BEST BET

San Diego at Tennessee +1 O/U 41

Recommendation: Tennessee

The Chargers will make the cross-country voyage this Sunday with a trip to Nashville to face the Titans. This will serve as the second straight ‘early Sunday game for the West Coast men of San Diego. Of course, last week they’re victorious against division rival Kansas City as the Chiefs are struggling mightily in the second half of the campaign. The Chargers really found the middle of the line worth attacking with star running back LaDainian Tomlinson, while they garnered 191 yards on the ground. However, against this Titan’s defensive front with the return of Albert Haynesworth it will be much tougher sledding. With Haynesworth in game there’s no question the Titans have proven they’re as good as any run defense in the NFL this season. Now, when you can at least slow down the run of the Chargers, the onus falls on quarterback Philip Rivers. Rivers still has difficulty carrying this football team offensively. Note, the Chargers have been fortunate of late in the turnover department. In fact, they’re +16 in turnovers during their 6-2 run. I just don’t believe this team is still as overwhelming as they were at times last year. Meanwhile, the Titans ‘woke up’ out of their three game slumber in the second half of last week’s Houston game. The offense finally clicked once again, while the same can be said of the defense. The Chargers simply won’t be able to bully this Titans team, while the Titans remember last year’s debacle in San Diego losing 40-7.

JARED KLEIN

BEST BET

San Diego at Tennessee +1 O/U 41

Recommendation: Tennessee

The Tennessee Titans host the San Diego Chargers this weekafter finally getting back on track last weekend against the

Houston Texans. The big difference against the Texans was the return of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth

consistently drew double and even triple teams that freed up defensive ends Antwan Odom and Kyle Vanden Bosch to make

plays and consistently pressure both Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels. It’s also no coincidence that the Titans didn’t give

up over 100 yards rushing through the first eight games of the season. Haynesworth is the key and while he and the Tennessee

Titans’ defense will have their hands full against LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers’ offense, the Titans will be up to

the task as they have the sixth-best total defense in the NFL and are seventh in stopping the run, giving up just 93.9 yards

per game. The Chargers have won three out of their last four games, but when you take a closer look at how they’ve beaten

teams it’s been due to turnover margin just like last week where they forced four turnovers against an inept Kansas City offense.

The Titans’ offense is much more of a threat with Vince Young, who had a great game against Houston last week completing

21-of-31 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns, and the Titans’ fifth-best rushing attack. The Titans should be able to take

advantage of San Diego who makes the cross country trip to Nashville after beating division foe Kansas City last weekend.

San Diego SU winner 15-0 Game Thirteen… 64-5 when win SU A

TENNESSEE 12-1 dogs vs opp off BB SUATS wins (last vs div)

Chargers 48.0 47.1 5-1 OVER favs in Game Thirteen

TITANS 43.6 41.3 5-1 OVER in Game Thirteen

ED CASH

BEST BET

San Diego at Tennessee +1 O/U 41

Recommendation: Tennessee

The Chargers are back in control of the AFC West at 7-5, but only because everyone else in the division is so bad. They have won

their last two games over Baltimore and Kansas City only because those offenses are so bad, even worse than what the San

Diego offense has become. Phillip Rivers looks like he is back at NC State during his freshman year and has just one 300-yard

game all year. LT is also having a down year, his only three good games have been against Denver, Oakland and KC, three poor

run defenses. Somehow, the Chargers are 7-5, with only one win over a winning team, and that came only because Peyton Manning threw six picks with half of his offense on the sidelines. Tennessee is also 7-5, breaking a three-game skid last week with a win over Houston. The Titan defense has been banged up, but with Albert Haynesworth back in the lineup, they were better last week against Houston and should be in even better shape this week. Also, Vince Young has played four pretty good games in a row very quietly and seems to be maturing as a passer. Too bad he doesn’t get any help from his receivers or he would be even better. Bottom line: Tennessee is the better team here, they are at home, and they are getting a point. Count me in on that deal anytime. Take the Titans to hand Rivers and the Chargers their sixth loss of the year

3 Star San Diego 27-21 (NORTH COAST)

LARRY NESS' Las Vegas Insider-NFL Week 14

My Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. Head coach Norv Turner was on the "hot seat" at SD after a 1-3 start but is now expected to be offered a multi-year deal with the Chargers at 7-5. I'm NOT sold on the 7-5 Chargers "being back" just yet, as the team's lone quality win came against the Colts (23-21), a game in which SD had two kick return TDs, Peyton threw six INTs plus Indy's Vinatieri missed a 29-yard game-winning FG at the end! The team's other six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 28-44 (.389) entering Week 14! Rivers has thrown for less than 200 yards in FIVE of his last seven games and is nowhere near LY's form. Tomlinson's averaging 26 YPG less, has just 12 TDs through 12 games (had 29 LY) and his YPC is down from 5.2 to 4.4! Overall, the offense is averaging just 23.8 PPG, after averaging a league-best 30.8 LY! For the Titans, Vince Young is really coming on at QB, averaging 264 YPG through the air the last four games, after averaging a pathetic 122.1 through his first seven starts. He's also added 176 rushing yards (6.8 per) the last four weeks. The Titans broke a three-game losing streak LW, as DT Albert Haynesworth returned. In his absence, the team allowed 97 points (32.3 per) and 160 YPG rushing, going 0-3. With him, the Titans are 7-2 in '07, allowing 16.0 PPG and 71.9 YPG rushing (which would rank them 2nd in the NFL!). SD is just 2-4 SU on the road, losing at NE, GB, Min and Jax. The defense has allowed 32 PPG in those losses and like the offense, has not played anywhere near its '06 form. SD has some "wiggle room" in the weak AFC West, a luxury the 7-5 Titans don't have in the AFC South, where the Colts are 10-2 and the Jags are 8-4. On the sidelines, Fisher vs Turner is a complete mismatch. SD is also not helped by traveling again for the second straight week, while the Titans play their second straight at home. Las Vegas Insider on the Ten Titans.

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

OAKLAND/GREEN BAY: We've seen the line go up a bit here, and the total go down. That's an odd combination. But, you can see it in a game like this where a shaky visitor will be outdoors in the winter. Green Bay has extra preparation time from their Thursday game in Dallas. That usually gets respect from the sharps. In this case, it's a top team after a loss too. So, that's why the early money was on Green Bay. Some of that was setting up a middle possibility too. The sharps are hoping the public keeps betting Green Bay and the line goes up. We've got a few spreads sitting just above 10 points this week. That's going to encourage a lot of three-team teasers. The public can't resist those.

WINNING POINTS

***BEST BET

*Green Bay over Oakland by 27

The combination of Green Bay having four extra days to game-plan and get healthy, the Raiders coming into cold weather and drawing an early start time puts us in the Packers’ corner. Brett Favre should be fine to start, but even if he isn’t the Packers have enough to cover this spread with Aaron Rodgers.The Raiders entered Week 13 with the worst run defense in the league.The Packers are particularly tough when they can get their ground attack going, which makes their play-action passes and frequent slant patterns even more effective. The Raiders have a decent secondary, but not nearly enough depth to cover Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and rookie James Jones. Green Bay is 3-0 SU and ATS versus AFC West teams this season. Favre played his worst game of the season last Thursday against Dallas. So did the Packers’ defense. Some of this, of course,was because of Dallas,

the class of the NFC so far. But some also was injury-related.More than likely the Packers will get back their two key defensive players that didn’t play against the Cowboys, cornerback Charles Woodson and pass rusher Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. Justin Fargas has been running well for the Raiders, but the team still turns the ball over too much (26 giveaways) and commits too many penalties to hang with an elite team like the Packers at such a tough road venue. The Raiders’ quarterback situation consists of Daunte Culpepper,who isn’t 100 percent and still doesn’t have a full grasp of the offense, perennial backup Josh McCown and rookie JaMarcus Russell, who is just beginning to get his feet wet. The Packers are out for redemption after a rare poor showing. They are a well-coached, fundamentally sound team with plenty of big-play ability.The Raiders have yet to exhibit any of these traits. GREEN BAY 37-10.

GOLD SHEET -CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF

11 *GREEN BAY over Oakland ***** I THINK THEY HAVE LOSY ONLY ONE 11* IN THE LAST 2 YEARS!!!!

Late Score Forecast:

*GREEN BAY 38 - OAKLAND 16

With early reports indicating Brett Favre will be ready to start after being felled at Dallas, and with other G.B. walking wounded (including former Raider CB Charles Woodson) benefitting from extra time off, must lay the lumber. Raiders don’t stop the run on the road (198 ypg the last 4), and RB Ryan Grant (588 YR; only four starts) a godsend for G.B. G.B. has covered 12 of its last 16 games.

THE GOLD SHEET

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

OVER THE TOTAL in the Oakland-Green Bay game

***OVER THE TOTAL GREEN BAY 37 - Oakland 16—Early indications are that the remarkable Brett Favre’s starting streak of 269 games (including playoffs) is likely to continue despite last week’s right arm and left shoulder injuries at Dallas. And CB Charles Woodson (former Raider) & DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila might return as well. The Raider run defense often vaporizes on the road (198 ypg last 4!). If Ryan Grant (588 YR) gets it going in Lambeau, Favre & WRs have a fun day. Pack 12-3-1 vs. spread last 16 games; 8-4 “over” TY. (03-Green Bay -5 41-7...SR: EVEN 5-5)

TIM TRUSHEL

BEST BET

Oakland +10 at Green Bay O/U 41.5

Recommendation: Oakland

The Packers are hurting as they try to keep pace with Dallas for the possibility of securing home field advantage in the playoffs. Obviously last week’s loss to the Cowboys was disheartening but it may also have long term implications as Brett Favre was knocked out with a separated shoulder and injured elbow. He is expected to play Sunday, but the injury will likely keep him from playing at full strength. With that, the Packers’ game plan this week should include a healthy dose of Ryan Grant, who has racked up a team-high 561 yards on the ground in the last six weeks while adding four TDs. The Raiders do rank 30th against the run, giving up an average of over 130 yards per game and although last week’s stifling of Denver looks impressive we aren’t buying a wholesale transition into a solid stop unit up front. Oakland’s strength comes from its ball hawking secondary and good cover LBs, which should force a turnover or two from Favre. The Raiders also have gotten a boost from running back Justin Fargas who has

put up 285 yards and two TDs the last two weeks. His performance was a direct result of the Raiders finally showing some clout with the pass, completing 33-of-50 passes and no INTs during that span. The last two weeks have show Oakland is not a that bad of a team when they get moderate contributions from the running and passing game. We look for them to get that again this weekend as we grab to 10 points.

Oakland DEC: 1-7 off DD ATS win vs non div opp

GREEN BAY SERIES: 3-1 L4… DEC: 10-1 vs non div opp off SU win w/ rev

Raiders 37.9 39.2 1-7 UNDER A off BB div gms

PACKERS 40.7 44.5 1-8 UNDER H off BB rd gms 3* UNDER

4-Star Oakland + 10’ over GREEN BAY — The Raiders have knocked off divisional rivals in each of the past two weeks beating longtime rival Denver at home last week —and they did it easily. The Raiders were forced to punt only once and had 34:20 of possession time. Oakland has been so bad against the spread over the past few seasons that their trend listings are heavily weighted towards trends of the play-against variety. However, when the offense can move the chains and stay on the field, the defense is not only better rested for the upcoming game, they are more confident and they play with hope.

Indeed, the Raiders are 7-0 ATS after a home game in which they had more than 34 minutes of possession time, covering the spread by an average of a whopping 16.4 ppg. The Sports Data Query Language (SDQL), records summary, stats summary and game listing for this team trend are given in the space below. In the game listing we can that the Raiders won all seven games straight up and they were an underdog in each of the last three. We can also see one winner from this season. In week 4 this season, the Raiders were a 4 point dog in Miami. In week 3, the Raiders beat the Browns 26-24 while holding

the ball for 36:17. The defense was rested and ready for the Dolphins. Oakland opened up a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter and clobbered Miami 35-17.

The Packers are off a tough loss in Dallas in which Brett Favre was knocked from the game. Green Bay committed a whopping 142 yards of penalties. This is not a good spot to support an NFL team with a wager. The league is 0-11 ATS since December 01, 2002 at home the week after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog in which they committed at least 100 yards of penalties. Finally, Green Bay is 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) at home when they averaged more than 24 points per game in their last three home games.

The Packers have been playing above their level of competence all season and it is starting to catch up to them. The Raiders are playing as an entire team. The offense and the defense are complementing each others performance. This is a very dangerous spot for the Cowboys. Grab this big number.

MTi’s FORECAST: Oakland 24 GREEN BAY 21

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

ST. LOUIS/CINCINNATI: The opener of Cincinnati by 6.5 moved up to -7. Not much has happened since. This isn't the kind of game that's going to appeal to sharps. They normally like underdogs. But, they've learned over the years to be wary of dome teams playing outdoors in cold December weather. There's also an AFC/NFC angle here. If you're going to bet on a bad NFC team, you want to be getting more than a touchdown. If the weather turns out to be mild, I could see some Rams money coming in since Marc Bulger has been cleared to start at QB again. If not, this will largely be a low-action game I expect.

10 ST. LOUIS over *CINCINNATI

Late Score Forecast:

ST. LOUIS 27 - *Cincinnati 22

St. Louis won’t make the playoffs after its 0-8 start, but the Rams have regained their confidence with 3 wins in their last 4 games, as RB Steven Jackson again healthy, setting up the Rams’ explosive WRs. While Cincy still has scary names on offense, CKOInsiders report many in the Bengal locker room have become dispirited after the team’s many disappointments TY.

CINCINNATI 24 - St. Louis 23—Improving Rams just one bobbled goal-line snap vs. Seattle from being 4-0 SU last four games! Steven Jackson (354 YR, 16 recs.) close to his 2006 self in those four, with St. Louis scoring 24 ppg. While Cincy potent on offense, injuries & flaws on defense have recently kept the Bengals under .500 as a home favorite (7-9-1 L2+Ys). With Cincy’s playoff hopes flickering none too brightly, wouldn’t count on host in this one. (03-ST. LOUIS -7 27-10...SR: EVEN 5-5)

St Louis 9-1 off DD non div SU winner vs opp off DD SU loss

CINCINNATI DEC: 7-0 H off SUATS loss vs opp off SU win

Rams 44.0 41.6 8-2 OVER away vs AFC

BENGALS 47.0 44.8 8-1 OVER home vs NFC West

The League is 10-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since December 13, 1998 as a home favorite the week after a loss as a TD+ dog in which they Here ahead by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter. (CIN)

BIG AL's NFL MONSTER BLOWOUT WINNER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincy Bengals minus the points over St. Louis. The Rams season has been a nightmare due to injuries. Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, and a host of offensive linemen have all missed significant time this year. Now, on Sunday, it looks like St. Louis will not only be without Bulger (concussion), but also its #2 quarterback, Gus Frerotte. So, Scott Linehan will be forced to play the Rams' 3rd-stringer, Brock Berlin. That just won't cut it against an offensive-minded Bengals squad that should put up a lot of points. Berlin has never attempted a pass in a regular-season game, and behind a makeshift offensive line, he will be in a lot of trouble vs. a Bengals defense that has forced 13 turnovers in its last five games. The Rams like to blitz a lot, but Carson Palmer is good at getting his passes away, so Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh could have big days. Look for a breakout offensive performance by the Bengals on Sunday. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

MIAMI/BUFFALO: Not much action here. The sharps generally won't lay big points with a team that's rarely a favorite. They also like divisional underdogs late in the season because teams are prone to get up for rivals. The problem here is that Miami just has no offense. They didn't score an offensive TD again last week. How can you bet on a team that never scores? Most guys I know are leaving this game alone. The action players are waiting on the weather. They'll take the Under if weather is an issue, knowing these two teams played a 13-10 game in good conditions a few weeks ago.

BUFFALO 13 - Miami 9—It’s nervous time for the 0-14 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs after what seemed to be 0-12 Miami’s best chance at a win went down thedrain vs. the lowly Jets. Will Cam Cameron be tempted to give QB Cleo Lemon another look (how’s that for an alternative?) after Dolphins’ “O” went its third straight game without scoring a TD with rookie John Beck (3 ints. 2 fumbles vs. Jets) at the controls? Still, Miami has often come close TY, losing by 3 points SIX times! Punchless Buffalo bunch has cracked the 20-point barrier just twice TY.

Miami 11-3 dogs 6 > pts… 0/6 O/U Game Thirteen

BUFFALO SERIES: 6-0-1 L7… 4-1 HF’s vs opp off DD SU loss

Dolphins 38.2 40.1 1-4 UNDER off DD div home loss

BILLS 40.3 37.9 1-4 UNDER vs div opp w/ revenge

TOM SCOTT’S ANGLE OF THE WEEK

Posted: 2007-12-04

Sometimes, no matter how bad the opponent is, a team should not be favored. There’s a situation in the NFL this week that finds a substantial home favorite who has been unable to crack the 21-point mark in any of his last three games. If you can’t score 21 in the NFL it’s difficult to win the game let alone cover a spread as a favorite. For example: All NFL teams who failed to score 21 points in games since 1980 went 2003-4735-179 to the spread, less than 30% winners. Favorites who didn’t come up with the black jack went 594-2063-75 ATS or 22.3% winners. Favorites of -4 or more were 274-1112-21 to the number and less than 20% of the tickets got cashed. With that idea in mind and a little tweak here and there, I present my Angle of the Week:

PLAY AGAINST any NFL division home favorite of -4 or more who failed to score 21 or more points in any of his last three games if he is off a SU and ATS win and is going into revenge.

26 Year ATS = 13-1 for 92.8%

This week’s play = MIAMI over Buffalo

The League is 0-10 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since December 27, 2003 as a favorite after a win on the road as a dog against a non-divisional opponent in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. (BUF)

BIG AL's 81-38 ATS NFL DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH -- Sunday

At 1 pm, our AFC East Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins plus the points over Buffalo. Miami's winless on the year, but fall into an 81-38 ATS system of mine that plays on certain winless teams at Game 5 of the season or later vs. foes with a win percentage greater than .250. These two teams met earlier this year, and Buffalo eked out a 3-point win, 13-10. Miami is 11-6 ATS vs. the Bills since 1980 off a SU/ATS loss, including 6-1 ATS with revenge. The weather is expected to be miserable, with a temperature around 32 degrees, and possible freezing rain. That will especially hamper offenses, and getting this large of an underdog is a solid play under these circumstances. Miami's defense is better than Buffalo's, to the extent the Bills' defense doesn't get much pressure on the QB (the Bills have managed just 5 sacks and 2 interceptions over the last 5 games). And Buffy allows a league-worst 49 percent conversion rate on third down. Miami's defense is a lot more active, with 11 sacks, 2 interceptions, a fumble recovery and a TD in just its last 2 games, so look for Trent Edwards to be in trouble somewhat in these poor weather conditions, and to be pressured into some bad decisions. Take the points with the Dolphins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

NY GIANTS/PHILADELPHIA: This is a funny matchup. Right now, nobody in Vegas wants any part of Eli Manning. He's been awful the last two weeks, even though the Giants did rally and cover at Chicago in their most recent game. This isn't a city that particularly trusts Donovan McNabb right now either. He's not a great quarterback when he's not mobile. Coming back from an injury, how mobile can he be? And, they all remember how often he was sacked in the first meeting. Nobody's touching this game! I do expect some Under money coming in if the weather forecast is bad. Otherwise, the oddsmakers seem to have put up a line that's discouraged sharp action. We'll only see the Wise Guys get involved if the public moves this line off the three on game day. That would surprise me.

N.Y. Giants 20 - PHILADELPHIA 17—For a while last week, Eli Manning (2 ints., 1 fumble) looked like the “Rex of the East.” But he later led the Giants on two, gritty, fourth-Q TD drives to beat the Bears in Chicago. Meanwhile, will the fickle Philly fans still be calling for Feeley after his 4 ints. (now 7 in two games) last week? Either way, would rather have the points in battle of two capable but erratic offenses and hard-rushing but often vulnerable defenses. (What in the “wide, wide world of sports” has happened to the Eagles’ tackling?)

TEDDY COVERS

BEST BET

NY Giants +3 at Philadelphia O/U 42.5

Recommendation: New York

The Eagles saw their last realistic chance at a longshot playoff berth go down in flames this past Sunday, as AJ Feeley threw

four interceptions in yet another ugly home loss. Philly hasn’t enjoyed a tremendous edge at Lincoln Financial Field this season.

Their only two home wins have come against the Lions and Dolphins -- not exactly a who’s who of quality NFL teams. We’ve

seen Philly lose straight up as a favorite on this field on three separate occasions, along with their shellacking at home to division

rival Dallas, for a 2-4 SU and ATS mark in Philadelphia. But this is nothing new. Philly is a .500 team at home dating back to

the start of the 2005 season; well under .500 against the spread. They lost here at home to the Giants last year, and the year before. And there’s little reason to expect the Eagles collective fortunes to change in this meeting against the G-men. After all,

Andy Reid’s squad was pretty much dominated in the first meeting between these two teams this year, managing only a single

field goal on less than 200 yards of offense. The Giants, too, are not a team to support at home, but we certainly like their track record in this road underdog situation. Following their come-frombehind win at Chicago this past Sunday, Eli Manning and company

have now won and covered each of their last five road games since their Week 1 loss at Dallas. I’m quite comfortable Becommending a play getting the better team as a full field goal underdog in a ‘hostile’ road venue that really isn’t very hostile at all.

NY Giants SERIES: 3-1 L4… 1-9 bef Redskins (0-1 this year)

PHILADELPHIA 7-1 if < .500 off BB SU losses (last vs. non-div opp)

4★ BEST BET

PHILADELPHIA over NY Giants by 13

Rematch of two division rivals that found the Eagles dropping a 16-3 verdict earlier this season in New York as -2.5 point favorites. In that loss Philly held the Giants to a season-low 212 yards, yet lost when they managed a season-low 190 yards of offense in the contest. Andy Reid has been solid in revenge in his NFL career, especially in division games (18-7-1). And he’s at his best in revengers when taking on a sub .700 division foe as his 17-5-1 ATS mark confi rms. Toss in the ‘Black-n-Blue Factor’ (winning teams on the road the game after facing the Bears are 1-7 ATS these past two seasons) and suddenly the Giants look like a rotten apple ready to be tossed, especially off last week’s dramatic comeback win over Chicago.

Giants 41.9 46.4 9-1 OVER dogs vs div opp w/ revenge

EAGLES 42.3 44.5 7-1 OVER w/ div revenge 4* OVER

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

ARIZONA/SEATTLE: The total has dropped from 45.5 down to 44 on the news that Arizona might be without two key receivers. Remember that 45 is a common number in football (24-21, 28-17), so crossing it represents a large move. That's a strong Under indicator at this point. The team side line as gone from Seattle -6.5 to -7. Nobody wants to lay more than a touchdown in a game where so much is at stake.

RECOMMENDED

ARIZONA over *SEATTLE by 3

Huge game for the 6-6 SU Cardinals, who are 1-0 in the season series with Seattle but two games behind the 8-4 SU Seahawks in the NFC West. Do they have what it takes to make the next three games after this one a sprint to the wire? The Seahawks had a

Feeley-good day at Philadelphia last Sunday when running back Shaun Alexander returned to action for the stretch run while the defense picked the Eagles’ #2 quarterback four times. Despite the apparent disadvantage of having Matt (Dink-and-Dunk)

Leinart at quarterback for the first meeting, the Cardinals were able to gain 431 offensive yards to 370 and won the game 23-20 despite being only even in Turnover Ratio. Mercifully, Leinart’s attitude and injuries have moved him out of the picture. Kurt Warner

will quarterback Arizona this time around – for better or worse, as it always is with Warner. The Cardinals are on a 0-2 SU and ATS run in Seattle.Warner fumbled four times in last season’s 21-10 defeat, and the team melted down immediately after he was

knocked out the 37-12 defeat in 2005 with an injury. Hold onto the damn ball and don’t get hurt, you…ARIZONA, 23-20.

SEATTLE 31 - Arizona 19—Cardinals, with the development of their top-notch receiving corps, have become a righteous underdog (10-2-1) in recent years. But, like most teams, they’ve had their problems (1-3 last 4) covering in noisy Seattle. Don’t see Arizona (defense down 4 starters) keeping pace with Seattle now that Shaun Alexander back, RB Maurice Morris improved, and WR Nate Burleson helping at wideout and on returns. Hawks’ attacking defense (MLB Lofa Tatupu 3 ints. last week!) setting up some easy scores. Series “over” 6 of last 7.

ROB VENO

BEST BET

Arizona at Seattle -7 O/U 45

Recommendation: Seattle

The Cardinals’ pass defense, which has been dissected at will by their last four opponents, is in for a methodical torching here.

The 237 yards allowed through the air by Arizona to the pathetic 49ers passing attack a couple weeks ago put the ultimate red

flag on this recent month long span which has now seen the Cards allow 1,119 aerial yards or 280 per game. With Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck distributing the wealth among his three and four wide receiver sets, Arizona’s depth shy defensive backfield figures to have trouble matching up. Adding to the Cardinals woes here will be the fact that ‘Hawks RB Shaun Alexander returned last week

and looked very good teaming with backfield mate Maurice Morris to register a combined 129 rushing yards on a very wet field.

Seattle’s diversity will keep the Cardinals off balance all game correlating into solid point production. Defensively, Seattle’s relentless

and speedy pass rush (second in the NFL with 36 sacks) is likely to overwhelm the Cardinals porous offensive line (29

sacks allowed) and make things difficult for QB Kurt Warner. The game carries importance for each of these divisional rivals but

favor the Seahawks in this situation whose 5-1 home record includes a current 3-0 straight up and pointspread run. There’s also

a revenge factor here as Seattle endured a heartbreaking 23-20 loss to the Cardinals back on September 16 when Neil Rackers

hit a field goal with 1 second remaining. A victory here clinches the NFC West for Seattle and expect them to get it by 14+.

Arizona SU winner 15-1 Game Thirteen… DEC: 1-6 if .500 >

SEATTLE SERIES: 3-1 L4 H… 1-5 favs 10 < pts Game Thirteen

3★ BEST BET

Arizona over SEATTLE by 6

Rather quietly the Seahawks have strung together a 4-0 SUATS streak and are suddenly riding high atop the NFC West

division. They can salt the Cardinals away with a win here today, on a home fi eld where they’ve won 21 of their last 25

games. Added incentive comes from a 3-point loss at Arizona on Week Two this season. Before you think about putting your hard earned cabbage on Seattle, we suggest you take a long look at the rest of the salad bar. For openers Arizona is 5-0 SUATS as a dog against an opponent off a SUATS win. They’re also 9-0 ATS as dogs versus a division foe off a SUATS win. Toss in Seattle’s 1-7 ATS mark at home in games off a double-digit SU dog win and you now have a bountiful plate full of fixins’ that will likely require a doggie bag to go!

Cardinals 41.5 43.8 8-2 OVER as div RD's 10 < pts

SEAHAWKS 44.5 43.2 6-1 OVER L7 vs Cardinals

OVER (45) in the Arizona-Seattle game—Seattle defense setting up easy points for the offense; Cards’ defense down four starters.

LARRY NESS ' LEGEND Play-NFL

My LEGEND Play is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET. The 6-6 Cards are tied with the Lions and Vikings for the final wild card spot in the NFC. That's heady territory considering the team has made the postseason just ONCE (in 1998) since moving to the desert in 1988. Meanwhile, with a win here, the Seahawks (who have won four straight games), can clinch their FOURTH straight NFC West title. Seattle is playing well, as Hasselbeck has thrown two TD passes in SIX of his last seven games, while averaging 275 YPG through the air. In the four-game winning streak, he's completed 62.2% with a 7-3 ratio. RB Morris averaged 84.3 YPG on the ground in the three games Alexander missed and added 5-for-64 LW, as Alexander returned (Shaun had 20-65). Arizona escaped LW with just a 27-21