THE SPORTS MEMO
MARTY OTTO
BEST BET
Dallas at Detroit +10.5 O/U 51.5
Recommendation: Detroit
The free falling Lions are playing themselves out of a playoff spot as
losers of four straight. Detroit was manhandled at the line of scrimmage
last week as the Vikings tallied 440 yards (200-plus on the
ground and through the air) and scored TDs on their first six possessions.
The Lions offense is sputtering as Kitna’s TD rate goes down
and the INT rate increases, a seven to seven ratio in his last five
games while the defense has been torched for 30 points or more
in three of the last four losses. They now face a Dallas team that is
ranked as the NFL’s second best total and scoring offense, led by
Tony Romo and Terrell Owens. Romo has earned every penny of his
new contract thus far as he completes 66% of his pass attempts
having racked up 3,352 yards with 33 TDs against just 14 INTs. He
has 15 multi-TD games and only one game in which he threw multiple
INTs. But where Dallas excels and keeps foes guessing is with
their ability to mix in Marion Barber and Julius Jones behind a massive
offensive line. But while they will hold very real advantages in
multiple areas this week, the Cowboys shouldn’t take your money
this week. No, they are coming off the biggest hyped game they
have played this year, and they won in convincing fashion. They are
fat and happy and comfortable after three straight home wins, and
may be caught looking ahead to another showdown with rival Philly
next week. We’ll back the Lions in an inflated range as everyone
else bails ship to give us a nice double digit spread to work with.
TEDDY COVERS
BEST BET
NY Giants +3 at Philadelphia O/U 42.5
Recommendation: New York
The Eagles saw their last realistic chance at a longshot playoff
berth go down in flames this past Sunday, as AJ Feeley threw
four interceptions in yet another ugly home loss. Philly hasn’t
enjoyed a tremendous edge at Lincoln Financial Field this season.
Their only two home wins have come against the Lions and
Dolphins -- not exactly a who’s who of quality NFL teams. We’ve
seen Philly lose straight up as a favorite on this field on three
separate occasions, along with their shellacking at home to division
rival Dallas, for a 2-4 SU and ATS mark in Philadelphia. But
this is nothing new. Philly is a .500 team at home dating back to
the start of the 2005 season; well under .500 against the spread.
They lost here at home to the Giants last year, and the year before.
And there’s little reason to expect the Eagles collective
fortunes to change in this meeting against the G-men. After all,
Andy Reid’s squad was pretty much dominated in the first meeting
between these two teams this year, managing only a single
field goal on less than 200 yards of offense. The Giants, too, are
not a team to support at home, but we certainly like their track record
in this road underdog situation. Following their come-frombehind
win at Chicago this past Sunday, Eli Manning and company
have now won and covered each of their last five road games
since their Week 1 loss at Dallas. I’m quite comfortable recommending
a play getting the better team as a full field goal underdog
in a ‘hostile’ road venue that really isn’t very hostile at all.
TIM TRUSHEL
BEST BET
Oakland +10 at Green Bay O/U 41.5
Recommendation: Oakland
The Packers are hurting as they try to keep pace with Dallas
for the possibility of securing home field advantage in
the playoffs. Obviously last week’s loss to the Cowboys was
disheartening but it may also have long term implications as
Brett Favre was knocked out with a separated shoulder and
injured elbow. He is expected to play Sunday, but the injury
will likely keep him from playing at full strength. With that, the
Packers’ game plan this week should include a healthy dose
of Ryan Grant, who has racked up a team-high 561 yards on
the ground in the last six weeks while adding four TDs. The
Raiders do rank 30th against the run, giving up an average of
over 130 yards per game and although last week’s stifling of
Denver looks impressive we aren’t buying a wholesale transition
into a solid stop unit up front. Oakland’s strength comes
from its ball hawking secondary and good cover LBs, which
should force a turnover or two from Favre. The Raiders also
have gotten a boost from running back Justin Fargas who has
put up 285 yards and two TDs the last two weeks. His performance
was a direct result of the Raiders finally showing
some clout with the pass, completing 33-of-50 passes and no
INTs during that span. The last two weeks have show Oakland
is not a that bad of a team when they get moderate contributions
from the running and passing game. We look for
them to get that again this weekend as we grab to 10 points.
DAVID JONES
BEST BET
Pittsburgh +14.5 at New England O/U NL
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh Steelers will try to upend New England’s dream of
a perfect season in the headline matchup of week 14’s NFL slate.
Through 11 games, the Steelers boasted the league’s top defense.
Pittsburgh is able to stop the run or pass in a well balanced defensive
scheme. The Steelers are also a solid offensive team as well.
With one of the league’s best rushing attacks behind RB Willie Parker,
Pittsburgh has the ability to keep the Patriots high powered offense
on the sideline. The passing game can strike with QB Ben Roethlisberger
and WR Hines Ward when foes try to focus on stopping
the run. While there is no doubt that the Pats are the clear favorite
to win the Super Bowl, the perceived difference between these
two squads is not the reality based on this pointspread. In their
only game this season against a top caliber defense, the Patriots
managed only 24 points in a narrow win at Indianapolis. The Steelers
defense will present an even bigger challenge. Also, the winter
weather should help an underdog team with a solid defense like the
Steelers. Ultimately, the goal for New England is to win. Even if it
is by one point, the mind set is to stay perfect. So, Pittsburgh just
needs to be competitive to cash a ticket. The Steelers will not be
intimated by facing the Patriots on the road. Most of the title club
from 2005 is still intact. Pittsburgh won three road games in the
postseason to capture the AFC title en route to their Super Bowl
crown. New England stays perfect but the Steelers keep this one in
single digits in a game that will have plenty of playoff type intensity.
ERIN RYNNING
BEST BET
San Diego at Tennessee +1 O/U 41
Recommendation: Tennessee
The Chargers will make the cross-country voyage this Sunday with
a trip to Nashville to face the Titans. This will serve as the second
straight ‘early Sunday game for the West Coast men of San Diego.
Of course, last week they’re victorious against division rival Kansas
City as the Chiefs are struggling mightily in the second half of the
campaign. The Chargers really found the middle of the line worth
attacking with star running back LaDainian Tomlinson, while they
garnered 191 yards on the ground. However, against this Titan’s defensive
front with the return of Albert Haynesworth it will be much
tougher sledding. With Haynesworth in game there’s no question
the Titans have proven they’re as good as any run defense in the
NFL this season. Now, when you can at least slow down the run of
the Chargers, the onus falls on quarterback Philip Rivers. Rivers
still has difficulty carrying this football team offensively. Note, the
Chargers have been fortunate of late in the turnover department.
In fact, they’re +16 in turnovers during their 6-2 run. I just don’t
believe this team is still as overwhelming as they were at times last
year. Meanwhile, the Titans ‘woke up’ out of their three game slumber
in the second half of last week’s Houston game. The offense finally
clicked once again, while the same can be said of the defense.
The Chargers simply won’t be able to bully this Titans team, while
the Titans remember last year’s debacle in San Diego losing 40-7.
JARED KLEIN
BEST BET
San Diego at Tennessee +1 O/U 41
Recommendation: Tennessee
The Tennessee Titans host the San Diego Chargers this week
after finally getting back on track last weekend against the
Houston Texans. The big difference against the Texans was the
return of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth
consistently drew double and even triple teams that freed up
defensive ends Antwan Odom and Kyle Vanden Bosch to make
plays and consistently pressure both Matt Schaub and Sage
Rosenfels. It’s also no coincidence that the Titans didn’t give
up over 100 yards rushing through the first eight games of the
season. Haynesworth is the key and while he and the Tennessee
Titans’ defense will have their hands full against LaDainian
Tomlinson and the Chargers’ offense, the Titans will be up to
the task as they have the sixth-best total defense in the NFL
and are seventh in stopping the run, giving up just 93.9 yards
per game. The Chargers have won three out of their last four
games, but when you take a closer look at how they’ve beaten
teams it’s been due to turnover margin just like last week where
they forced four turnovers against an inept Kansas City offense.
The Titans’ offense is much more of a threat with Vince Young,
who had a great game against Houston last week completing
21-of-31 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns, and the Titans’
fifth-best rushing attack. The Titans should be able to take
advantage of San Diego who makes the cross country trip to
Nashville after beating division foe Kansas City last weekend.
ED CASH
BEST BET
San Diego at Tennessee +1 O/U 41
Recommendation: Tennessee
The Chargers are back in control of the AFC West at 7-5, but only
because everyone else in the division is so bad. They have won
their last two games over Baltimore and Kansas City only because
those offenses are so bad, even worse than what the San
Diego offense has become. Phillip Rivers looks like he is back at
NC State during his freshman year and has just one 300-yard
game all year. LT is also having a down year, his only three good
games have been against Denver, Oakland and KC, three poor
run defenses. Somehow, the Chargers are 7-5, with only one win
over a winning team, and that came only because Peyton Manning
threw six picks with half of his offense on the sidelines. Tennessee
is also 7-5, breaking a three-game skid last week with a win over
Houston. The Titan defense has been banged up, but with Albert
Haynesworth back in the lineup, they were better last week against
Houston and should be in even better shape this week. Also, Vince
Young has played four pretty good games in a row very quietly
and seems to be maturing as a passer. Too bad he doesn’t get any
help from his receivers or he would be even better. Bottom line:
Tennessee is the better team here, they are at home, and they
are getting a point. Count me in on that deal anytime. Take the
Titans to hand Rivers and the Chargers their sixth loss of the year
DONNIE BLACK
BEST BET
Tampa Bay at Houston +1 O/U 40
Recommendation: Houston
Tampa Bay got a near flawless performance from backup QB Luke
McCown last week as he relieved Jeff Garcia and Bruce Gradkowski
(who was largely ineffective in relief himself two weeks ago). Mc-
Cown completed 29-of-37 passes for 313 yards and led the team to
three TDs including the game winner with 14 seconds left to all but
cash their ticket as NFC South Champions. The Bucs, behind their
second ranked scoring defense, outgained the Saints last week by
over 220 yards, but they should feel fortunate to have come away
with a win after recovering a fumble on an ill-advised reverse play
late in the fourth quarter, and converting on fourth down later in
the ensuing game winning drive. But they can’t possibly expect
another performance like that from their QB, even if Jeff Garcia
returns (at less than 100%) and they certainly can’t expect a
gift wrapped win on the road once again. Houston may be without
Matt Schaub but Sage Rosenfels has shown good chemistry with
his wideouts in spot duty thus far, and has actually posted numbers
comparable to Schaub (83.9 QB rating vs. 87.2). Look for
the Texans to come up big after back-to-back road losses as Tampa
takes a breather with their playoff berth all but guaranteed.
ROB VENO
BEST BET
Arizona at Seattle -7 O/U 45
Recommendation: Seattle
The Cardinals’ pass defense, which has been dissected at will by
their last four opponents, is in for a methodical torching here.
The 237 yards allowed through the air by Arizona to the pathetic
49ers passing attack a couple weeks ago put the ultimate red
flag on this recent month long span which has now seen the Cards
allow 1,119 aerial yards or 280 per game. With Seahawks QB Matt
Hasselbeck distributing the wealth among his three and four wide
receiver sets, Arizona’s depth shy defensive backfield figures to
have trouble matching up. Adding to the Cardinals woes here will
be the fact that ‘Hawks RB Shaun Alexander returned last week
and looked very good teaming with backfield mate Maurice Morris
to register a combined 129 rushing yards on a very wet field.
Seattle’s diversity will keep the Cardinals off balance all game
correlating into solid point production. Defensively, Seattle’s relentless
and speedy pass rush (second in the NFL with 36 sacks)
is likely to overwhelm the Cardinals porous offensive line (29
sacks allowed) and make things difficult for QB Kurt Warner. The
game carries importance for each of these divisional rivals but
favor the Seahawks in this situation whose 5-1 home record includes
a current 3-0 straight up and pointspread run. There’s also
a revenge factor here as Seattle endured a heartbreaking 23-20
loss to the Cardinals back on September 16 when Neil Rackers
hit a field goal with 1 second remaining. A victory here clinches
the NFC West for Seattle and expect them to get it by 14+.
BRENT CROW
BEST BET
Minnesota at San Francisco +7.5 O/U 45
Recommendation: San Francisco
The Vikings come into this game on a roll, winning three straight
over Oakland, New York and Detroit. Whereas they were a 4.5-
point home favorite over the Raiders three weeks ago, they
are now a full touchdown chalk over the 49ers on the road.
They have won their past two games by scores of 41-17 and
42-10 and super rookie running back Adrian Peterson is back
in the fold as well. On the other hand, San Francisco is 3-9 on
the year and is coming off a 31-14 loss to the Panthers. San
Francisco has the worst offense in the league and has scored
more than 17 points just twice all year, both times against Arizona.
Despite all of that, I like the underdog 49ers at home this
week. Minnesota now finds themselves in position to get into
the playoff race after their three-game win streak, which adds
pressure to their young quarterback. The 49ers have nothing
to play for but pride, and they have played with pride on defense
all year, especially at home. San Francisco has had a difficult
stretch lately, playing four of their last five games on the
road. Getting back to their place should ensure another good
effort from the defense, and if they can force a turnover or
two, they can win this game. The 49ers are 3-0 this year, (all
three of their wins) when they have a positive turnover ratio.
FAIRWAY JAY
BEST BET
Cleveland at NY Jets +3.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York
No, that wasn’t a misprint last week. The winless Dolphins (0-12)
were favored. And they got beat. Again. The Jets fit a very solid
late-season situation last week playing against a NFL home favorite
(Dolphins) of 3 or less when both teams are off a loss. Now, New
York returns to home turf off an underdog win as a disrespected
‘Dog of a touchdown or less. This is a solid long-term winning
situation. Regular Fairway Followers know we cashed our NFL
Game-of-the-Year winner last week on Arizona over Cleveland.
The Browns defense is still a problem, dead last in the NFL allowing
390 ypg. Another area of concern is penalties, as the Browns
are the second most penalized team in the NFL (95 for 716 yards)
while the Jets have the second fewest penalties in the league (46
for 360 yards). The Browns mighty offense has ‘only’ produced 21
and 27 points the past two weeks against sub-par defenses. Meanwhile,
the Jets running game came to life last week with Thomas
Jones and Leon Washington rushing for over 140 yards. The offense
and quarterback Kellen Clemens is gaining confidence and
should use last week’s performance to ‘Jet’ them to continued
success against this poor Browns defense. The last time New York
played on this field, we cashed a big ‘Dog winner with the Jets outright
victory over Pittsburgh. New York’s pass defense is an area
of concern in this match-up, but look for the Jets to continue their
move towards respectability against a Browns team that could
be feeling the ‘Dawg collar around their neck down the stretch.
SONNY PALERMO
BEST BET
Kansas City +6.5 at Denver O/U 37.5
Recommendation: Kansas City
Missed using Denver last week, and I’m switching sides and going
against them this week. The loss to the Raiders knocked Denver
out of the hunt for the division title, maybe not mathematically,
but certainly realistically as they sit two games behind San Diego
with only four left to play. And the Oakland loss also leaves them
with no hope for a Wild Card spot either, as the Jags, Cleveland
and Buffalo all sit ahead of them - and all three won’t collapse
over the final weeks. What this leaves us with is a great spot to
play against a team who will be in quit mode and full of loathing
over the realization that their season is over. In this spot, the
Broncos return home, not as heroes but as goats, and no amount
of optimism can convince them they did not blow any chance for
the postseason with the two road losses to the Bears and Raiders
-- two games they should have won. The Chiefs’ offense is not
much worse than Denver’s, while their defense is a whole lot better,
surrendering 100 points less on the season. Denver couldn’t
cover as a small favorite at Oakland, they’re now 1-4 as favorite
in ‘07, and are in that role again, giving almost a TD here. Take
the Chiefs, in a game where we get a team that is 4-1 ATS on
the road in ’07, seeking revenge for an earlier loss at KC. Keep
in mind, they may not need ‘em as they can win this one SU
