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2007 COLLEGE BOWL GAME INFO

DIRECT FROM VEGAS

WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

EARLY NOTES ON THE COLLEGE BOWLS

Here are some initial thoughts on the college football bowls now that the lines have been up for a few days.

Oddsmakers really wanted to discourage action on the Overs. They know that the public likes betting Overs in bowls anyway. The average guy likes to foot for offenses rather than defenses. The average guy likes betting on bowl games because they're on TV. So, sportsbooks take in a lot of Over bets during the postseason. This year though, many sharps cleaned up with Overs, particularly in a few conferences that saw scoring explosions. That's why you see so many high numbers. Oddsmakers had to discourage action from BOTH squares and sharps on the totals in many of these games.

If you want to bet Overs this year, you're going to need the winning teams to make a run at 50 points. That will probably happen a couple of times. It won't happen enough to justify playing blanket Overs though. Make sure you play it smart with the totals.

Everyone's already talking about the BCS championship game between Ohio State and LSU. I mean, EVERYONE is talking about that game. Many people made up their minds right away on games like USC-Illinois or Georgia-Hawaii with the tall spreads. Either you think the dog is going to get killed, or you like taking double digits whenever you can get them. Not much thought there. But, with Ohio State/LSU, I'm hearing arguments all over the place about which team is the most overrated...which team has the worst big game coach...etc.

Each side can make some compelling arguments (LSU has been overrated this year based on ATS performances, Ohio State was obviously overrated last year based on how they played in the championship game). When that happens, there's a good number on the board that's going to get plenty of action. This won't quite reach Super Bowl proportions. But there's going to be a huge handle in that game. If everyone is talking about that game NOW, a full month ahead of time, you can get it's going to be a big deal here in Vegas come January.

Of course, the bad news about that is that nobody's talking about the other games. Vegas wants a huge bowl season, not just one huge game. I think interest will pick up when we get closer on the calendar to the games being played.

Even though Vegas has a team in the Mountain West conference, this is largely Pac 10 country in terms of betting interest. It's the same time zone, and many Pac 10 games are on TV all the time here. So far, the buzz I'm hearing about Pac 10 teams is as follows:

USC is going to kill Illinois

UCLA is going to get killed by BYU

California is toast, and will get upset by Air Force

Oregon doesn't care any more, and will lose to South Florida

Arizona State was never that great, but neither was Texas, so pass

Nobody's talking about Oregon State/Maryland. Can't say that I blame them.

Now, I'm not saying that this is all sharp opinion, or that I agree with any of it. That's just the buzz I'm hearing. When sharps like underdogs, they don't say anything right away because they want the line to go up. So, the guys that like USC have already bet. The guys that like Illinois are keeping quiet. Many don't expect California to get bet by the public because of the second half slump, so they're taking Air Force now. Otherwise, the early discussion has been about favorites (USC, BYU, South Florida), which isn't a surprise.

I've noticed in the past that many sharps have some square tendencies when talking about teams they watch on TV all the time. They can't help it. All sharps used to be squares until they got smart. Sometimes they fall into old habits. Watching Oregon struggle on TV has them loving South Florida, a team they hardly ever watch. Watching USC move the ball on offense the past month has them loving the Trojans over an Illinois team they hardly ever watch. It will be interesting to see down the road if these early thoughts were sharp or square.

It's amazing how many matchups involve teams that were either in the upper echelons of the BCS ratings at one point, or just came a play or two away from being there. There's a lot of depth in college football this season, which should create a lot of great games as long as both teams show up motivated.

posted by phantom

Dec. 6 2007 4:32pm

173 replies

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R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans, Louisiana

TV: ESPN2

Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis, 8:00 ET

Florida Atlantic:

6-1 Over off an Over

6-0 Over in the second half of the season

Memphis:

3-12 ATS off BB conference wins

2-14 ATS after scoring 42+ points

PapaJohnsBowl

Birmingham, Alabama

TV: ESPN2

Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati, 1:00 ET

Southern Miss:

0-6 ATS as an underdog

6-16 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss

Cincinnati:

12-2 ATS off an ATS win

5-1 ATS off a win by 21+ points

New Mexico Bowl

Albuquerque, New Mexico

TV: ESPN

Nevada vs. New Mexico, 4:30 ET

Nevada:

7-0 Under away after scoring 42+ points

9-1 Under away off 3+ conference games

New Mexico:

0-9 ATS after allowing 6 or less points

1-8 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: ESPN

UCLA vs. BYU, 8:00 ET

UCLA:

9-1 ATS as an underdog

8-1 ATS off a conference loss

BYU:

10-2 Under playing on a neutral field

29-14 Under as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

Sheriton Hawaii Bowl

Honolulu, Hawaii

TV: ESPN

East Carolina vs. Boise State, 8:00 ET

East Carolina:

14-4 Under after winning 3 of their last 4 games

12-5 Under off BB conference games

Boise State:

41-12 ATS off BB conference games

18-3 ATS with a total of 63+ points

Motor City Bowl

Detroit, Michigan

TV: ESPN

Central Michigan vs. Purdue, 7:30 ET

Central Michigan:

14-5 ATS playing on artificial turf

10-2 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Purdue:

9-0 Under off BB losses

16-6 Under off a conference game

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl

San Diego, California

TV: ESPN

Texas vs. Arizona State, 8:00 ET

Texas:

13-3 ATS off 3+ Overs

10-2 ATS after allowing 525+ total yards

Arizona State:

11-2 Under away off a home game

12-4 Under away off a conference game

Champs Sports Bowl

Orlando, Florida

TV: ESPN

Michigan State vs. Boston College, 5:00 ET

Michigan State:

6-16 ATS off a conference game

6-16 ATS off BB games with combined scores of 60+ points

Boston College:

12-4 Under playing on grass fields

21-9 Under away off an ATS loss

Texas Bowl

Houston, Texas

TV: NFL

TCU vs. Houston, 8:00 ET

TCU:

10-1 ATS off BB conference wins

16-5 ATS after having 275+ rushing yards

Houston:

6-0 Under off an ATS loss

6-0 Under away off a combined score of 60+ points

Emerald Bowl

San Francisco, California

TV: ESPN

Maryland vs. Oregon State, 8:30 ET

Maryland:

17-3 Under after scoring 37+ points

14-4 Under after committing 0 turnovers

Oregon State:

10-2 ATS off a conference win by 7 or less points

12-3 ATS off BB conference games

Saturday, December 29th

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Charlotte, North Carolina

TV: ESPN

Connecticut vs. Wake Forest, 1:00 ET

Connecticut:

8-1 ATS off a road loss

21-8 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

Wake Forest:

16-6 Under vs. non-conference opponents

8-2 Under off BB games forcing 3+ turnovers

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Memphis, Tennessee

TV: ESPN

Central Florida vs. Mississippi State, 4:30 ET

Central Florida:

6-1 Under off a conference win

7-0 Under after allowing 325+ passing yards

Mississippi State:

16-30 ATS off an Under

1-5 ATS off a home win

Valero Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, Texas

TV: ESPN

Penn State vs. Texas A&M, 8:00 ET

Penn State:

16-5 Under away vs. non-conference opponents

22-9 Under off a combined score of 60+ points

Texas A&M:

1-12 ATS after gaining 525+ total yards

4-14 ATS away playing with rest

PetroSun Indepedence Bowl

Shreveport, Louisiana

TV: ESPN

Colorado vs. Alabama, 8:00 ET

Colorado:

10-1 Over after scoring 50+ points

6-0 Over after allowing 325+ passing yards

Alabama:

3-11 ATS as a favorite

0-6 ATS off BB losses

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Fort Worth, Texas

TV: ESPN

Air Force at California, 12:30 ET

Air Force:

7-1 ATS off a straight up win

13-3 ATS away playing with 2+ weeks rest

California:

0-7 ATS off BB conference games

2-10 ATS off a straight up loss

Brut Sun Bowl

El Paso, Texas

TV: CBS

Oregon vs. South Florida, 2:00 ET

Oregon:

16-6 ATS off a home loss

9-2 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

South Florida:

9-2 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games

5-1 Under off BB conference wins

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl

El Paso, Texas

TV: ESPN2

Fresno State vs. Georgia Tech, 2:00 ET

Fresno State:

20-8 Over playing on artificial turf

22-10 Over off an Under

Georgia Tech:

1-9 ATS off BB Overs

1-5 ATS off a home game

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl

Nashville, Tennessee

TV: ESPN

Florida State vs. Kentucky, 4:00 ET

Florida State:

6-1 ATS after allowing 37+ points

5-1 ATS off 3+ games forcing 1 or 0 turnovers

Kentucky:

11-3 Under playing with 2+ weeks rest

12-2 Under off BB conference losses

Insight Bowl

Tempe, Arizona

TV: NFL

Indiana vs. Oklahoma State, 5:30 ET

Indiana:

4-15 ATS off 5+ games committing 2+ turnovers

1-5 ATS off a home win by 3 or less points

Oklahoma State:

13-3 Over off an ATS loss

5-1 Over off BB road games

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, Georgia

TV: ESPN

(TC) Auburn vs. Clemson, 7:30 ET

Auburn:

6-1 ATS as an underdog

5-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Clemson:

9-2 Under in bowl games

16-6 Under after winning 4 of their last 5 games

Outback Bowl

Tampa, Florida

TV: ESPN

Wisconsin vs. Tennessee, 11:00am ET

Wisconsin:

10-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

39-22 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Tennessee:

5-1 Under off BB games with 40+ pass attempts

8-3 Under off 3+ conference games

AT&T Cotton Bowl

Dallas, Texas

TV: FOX

Arkansas vs. Missouri, 11:30am ET

Arkansas:

7-1 ATS off BB games allowing 31+ points

15-4 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points

Missouri:

24-7 Over after committing 1 or 0 turnovers

7-3 Over off a loss by 21+ points

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, Florida

TV: ABC

Michigan vs. Florida, 1:00 ET

Michigan:

0-5 ATS after having 100 or less rushing yards

3-7 ATS off a straight up loss

Florida:

9-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

6-1 ATS off an ATS win as a favorite of 10+ points

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, Florida

TV: CBS

Texas Tech vs. Virginia, 1:00 ET

Texas Tech:

0-8 ATS away off a conference win

0-7 ATS away off an ATS win

Virginia:

10-2 Under off a straight up loss

8-1 Under after having 100 or less rushing yards

Rose Bowl presented by Citi

Pasadena, California

TV: ABC

Illinois vs. USC, 4:30 ET

Illinois:

7-1 ATS off a straight up win

10-2 ATS away after scoring 37+ points

USC:

9-2 Under as a favorite

7-1 Under off a conference game

Sugar Bowl

New Orleans, Louisiana

TV: FOX

Hawaii vs. Georgia, 8:30 ET

Hawaii:

7-1 Under off 7+ wins

6-1 Under playing on artificial turf

Georgia:

17-5 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

21-9 ATS away off an Under

Wednesday, January 2nd

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, Arizona

TV: FOX

West Virginia vs. Oklahoma, 8:00 ET

West Virginia:

8-1 ATS away off an ATS loss

6-0 ATS off BB games having 125 or less passing yards

Oklahoma:

8-1 Under away off 3+ conference games

14-4 Under as a neutral field favorite

Thursday, January 3rd

FedEx Orand Bowl

Miami, Florida

TV: FOX

Kansas vs. Virginia Tech, 8:00 ET

Kansas:

3-12 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

25-48 ATS off a conference loss

Virginia Tech:

7-1 ATS off a conference game

15-5 ATS in the second half of the season

Saturday, January 5th

International Bowl

Toronto, Canada

TV: ESPN2

Ball State vs. Rutgers, 12:00 ET

Ball State:

9-1 ATS off an ATS loss

6-1 ATS off a win by 6 or less points

Rutgers:

10-4 Over off BB conference games

4-1 Over playing with 2+ days rest

Sunday, January 6th

GMAC Bowl

Mobile, Alabama

TV: ESPN

Bowling Green vs. Tulsa, 8:00 ET

Bowling Green:

19-8 ATS off a home win by 17+ points

16-6 ATS after allowing 3 or less first-half points

Tulsa:

0-6 ATS after allowing 37+ points

0-8 ATS after having 475+ total yards

Monday, January 7th

BCS Championship Game

New Orleans, Louisiana

TV: FOX

Ohio State vs. LSU, 8:00 ET

Ohio State:

12-1 ATS off an Under

10-2 ATS off a road game

LSU:

1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

1-5 ATS off an ATS loss

posted by phantom

Dec. 6 2007 4:48pm
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2007 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

Issue # 15 Games through December 10, 2007

Preparing for the College Bowls - Preliminary Thoughts and Conference Strength Factors

The regular college football season has ended and the focus and attention turns to the Bowl season which begins on Thursday, December 20 and culminates in the determination of a 'paper' National Champion in the BCS Title game in New Orleans Louisiana on January 7, 2006 when LSU plays Ohio State. It will be a paper championship only since in the absence of a Playoff involving Conference Champions and perhaps a handful of at-large teams it has been the computers and the polls that determined once beaten Ohio State's opponent would be LSU and not any of several other 2 loss teams or similarly once beaten Kansas - or the only unbeaten team - Hawaii (who plays in the relatively weak WAC).

What was once an honor to go to a Bowl is now almost routine for many very average football teams. Although the number of Bowls has exploded over the past two decades a Bowl game is still looked upon by many participants as a reward for a winning season. 64 of the 120 Division I-A teams will be in Bowl games this season. That's 53% of the Division I-A population. 7 of these Bowl bound teams had 6-6 records with only one of these teams -- Nevada Reno -- being from a non-BCS conference.

6 other FBS (formerly Division I-A) teams finished the 2007 season with 6-6 records but will not be going to Bowls - Iowa, Louisville, Louisiana-Monroe, Northwestern, Ohio U and South Carolina.

Four of those teams are from BCS conferences. One team is from the Sun Belt and one is from the Mid American Conference. The Sun Belt also featured an 8-4 team - Troy - who tied with Florida Atlantic for the conference title at 6-1 but lost their head to head matchup last week at home. The Trojans may have been deserving of some other minor Bowl considering their non-conference schedule featured games against 4 teams from BCS conferences who are each going bowling (Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Georgia) and included a non-fluke win over Oklahoma State..

As handicappers we truly enjoy the anticipation of the Bowl season for several reasons, foremost amongst them is that we have several weeks to fully analyze and break down most matchups.

The Bowls also present some unique handicapping challenges since the teams will not have played, in many instances, in more than a month. Several teams, most notably from the Big 10, played their final regular season game on November 17. Ohio State will face LSU for the National Title on January 7 after having been idle for 51 days! That's 7 weeks and 2 days -- MORE THAN HALF A SEASON!!!

Play can often be choppy and there have been distractions since most teams last took the field. That's even more of an argument for a Playoff that begins in late November. You'd have better play because of the continuity. Imagine the baseball Playoffs beginning on November 1 after taking the month of October off. Or the NBA Playoffs beginning on Memorial Day after the regular season ends in mid-April. Yet that's exactly the scenario for the major Bowl combatants, especially the two the decide the National Title.

But we digress. Motivation is also a key factor to consider. For some teams a Bowl is viewed as a reward while for other teams it may be more of a disappointment. Coaches also take differing views of Bowls. Some coaches concentrate on winning the game for the current roster of players while other coaches view a Bowl as a prelude to next season and often give underclassmen more playing time. Other factors that come into play are injuries, suspensions, academic dismissals and the motion of the coaching carousel whereby many coaches are in transition between programs and what often goes unlooked in the changing of head coaches is the turmoil and distractions that can exist amongst the assistant coaches. Still, the college Bowl season is an opportunity to watch many games between generally pretty good, or better, teams spread out over a two week period. Let's enjoy the experience.

A key part of the broad Bowl overview process is to gauge not just the relative strengths of the teams and conferences but also how those strengths have changed since the start of the season. Towards that end we present the following conference data which also shows Bowl records for the past 5 seasons. Note that conference results are tracked based upon conference affiliation during the season in question so that, for example, Virginia Tech's results are included in the Big East for seasons prior to 2004, the season in which they moved from the Big East to the ACC. In 2004 and later Tech's results are part of the ACC summary.

Conference Pre Season

Rank

Pre Season Rating

Current Rank

Current Rating

Rating Change

5 Year S/U

%

5 Year ATS

%

SEC 3 143.1 3 - tie 143.5 0.4 20-15 57.9 17-17-1 50.0

Big 12 4 142.1 1 - tie 144.3 2.2 19-20 48.7 16-21-2 43.2

Big East 1 143.8 3 - tie 143.5 - 0.3 13-11 54.2 11-13 45.8

ACC 6 139.1 6 140.3 1.2 21-14 60.0 21-14 60.0

Big 10 5 141.1 5 141.5 0.4 16-19 45.7 19-16 54.3

Pac 10 2 143.2 1 - tie 144.3 1.1 15-14 51.7 14-15 48.3

Mount. West 7 134.0 7 136.3 2.3 8-9 47.1 10-7 58.8

CUSA 9 127.2 9 125.5 - 1.7 10-16 38.5 11-14-1 44.0

Mid American 10 123.5 10 123.5 0 7-8 46.7 7-8 46.7

WAC 8 127.3 8 128.2 0.9 11-7 61.1 10-8 55.6

Sun Belt 11 118.8 11 121.8 3.0 2-5 28.6 3-4 42.9

Independents n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2-6 25.0 3-5 37.5

The above chart shows that most conferences are within a few games of .500 over the past 5 seasons. The ACC has had the greatest success with their identical 21-14 records both Straight Up and ATS. The two Independents in this study -- Navy and Notre Dame -- are a combined 2-6 - with Notre Dame not winning a Bowl game in 10 straight Bowls since their last Bowl victory in 1992 (and going 1-9 ATS).

Note from the above chart that all but one of the six BCS conferences increased their average Power Ratings during the 2007 season. A conference's Rating is increased by playing teams from other conferences in the early part of the season, especially teams from FCS (I-AA) conferences. Those FCS teams are usually overmatched (with all due respect to Appalachian State) and contribute to the overall increase in the average Power Ratings as a whole. The lone exception was the Big East whose Average Power Rating declined by a small 0.3 points from start to finish.

In two weeks we'll begin our comprehensive preview of the 32 Bowls to be played this season.

One of the major challenges in betting the Bowls is timing. As with everything there are tradeoffs as betting early often insures the best lines, especially when looking at favorites. But by locking yourself into a position so early risks adverse line moves from negative news such as injuries or suspensions.

Our weekly Spreadsheet does have the final regular season college statistics for all 120 Division I-A teams and is arranged in Bowl matchup order, followed by the 56 non-Bowl teams arranged in alphabetical order.

posted by phantom

Dec. 6 2007 4:48pm
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Handicapping Tip: MONEY LINE DOGS - In the last four seasons 54 underdogs have won outright in the bowls, with some very big prices in this group. With all the intangibles involved in the bowls, and so much hinging on preparation and motivation, underdogs on the money line are a very strong play in these games. You hit a few of these and it can turn a breakeven bowl season into a profitable one.

posted by phantom

Dec. 6 2007 4:49pm
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Updated to include 2006 season

Top Bowl Game Team Side & Total Trends

The Good bowl Game Teams

-BostonCollege is 8-2 SU & ATS in its last ten bowl games, including wins in each of its last six(trend broke last year).

-Utah has won six straight bowl games outright and is 5-0 ATS in its last five.

-Miami is on a 8-3 SU & 7-3 ATS run in its last nine bowl games.(failed to cover spread last year)

-OhioSt. is 4-1 SU & ATS in its last 5 bowl games(lost last year to Florida).

-WakeForest is 3-1 SU & ATS.(lost last year to Louisville)

The Poor Bowl Game Teams

-Notre Dame has lost nine straight bowl games and is just 1-9 ATS in its last ten.

-Louisville is on a 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS stretch in recent bowl game action(won and covered last year).

-West Virginia has not matched its regular season success in bowl games, as it is just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in its last 11 bowl games(one last year failed to cover spread).

-New Mexico have lost five straight bowl games and are 1-4 ATS in that span.

BYU broke streak of 4 consecutive losses last year with win and covered ATS

-Purdue is just 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in seven bowl games since 2000.

-Kansas St. is 3-4 SU, but often overvalued in bowl games, as evidenced by its 1-6 ATS record in those contests.

The Over Bowl Game Teams

-Michigan has been a big Over team as well in bowl games, surpassing the total in eight of its last nine.

-West Virginiaâ€™s last eight bowl games have resulted in seven overs.

-Texas & Florida have been reliable for Over bettors, converting 75% of their last eight tries, 6-2.

-Cal and G.Tech are each working on bowl game trends that have seen their Over totals run to five straight.

The Under Bowl Game Teams

-The schools in Arizona have been huge Under teams in bowl games. The Wildcats have gone Under the total in four straight and the Sun Devils in 7 of 8.

-Oklahoma is 8-2 to the Under(lost last year with Boise St. total).

-Utah is 7-1 to the Under.

-Auburn have gone Under the total in six straight bowl games.

-Cincy had gone Under four straight(lost last year going over breaking streak).

-Penn.St.& Tex. A&M are 6-2 to the Under.

Top Bowl Game Conference Side & Total

-The ACC teams have combined for a 17-11 SU & 17-11 ATS record over the last four seasons

.

-The Big East Conference have struggled over the last four seasons(last year broke trend went 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS) in bowl games, as its representatives are just 10-9 SU & 9-10 ATS in that span. Nine of the last fourteen bowl games have gone Over.

-Big Ten Conference has produced 12 Overs out of last 17 games.

-Favorites in bowl games involving Conference USA teams have been on a tear, going 19-2 SU & 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games.

-Favorites are on a roll in games involving Independent teams as well, going 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last eleven games. Independents as underdogs have been a staggering 2-9 SU & 3-8 ATS.

-Mountain West is 16-8 ATS in bowl games.

-Pac 10 teams are 16-8 for the Over. They are 29-25 SU but an amazing 39-14 ATS(went 2-4 last year).

-SEC underdogs are on a huge roll, covering their last 13 of 14(Alabama only underdog last year unable to cover) and winning 11 of them SU. 21 of 30 games have gone Under(last year 5-4).

-WAC is 15-8 for the Over(1-3 last year) and are 9-14 ATS(4-0 ATS last year).

posted by phantom

Dec. 6 2007 4:49pm
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Bowl Trends Continued Updated to include 2006

Individual Bowl Game Series

-GMAC Bowl- Conference USA teams are 2-6 SU & ATS(USM won and covered last year).

-Champs Sports Bowl- Four of the last six bowl games have gone Over(last year went under). The favorite is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS(Purdue lost last year SU to Maryland).

-Hawaii Bowl- Five Straight Overs(Streak broke last year Hawaii/AZ St went under 71.5 with 65 points scored).

-MotorCity Bowl- The MAC has fallen in all of its last four(Streak broke last year Chippewas won straight up 31-14 against Mid Tenn St.).

-Insight.Com Bowl- The underdog is on a run of 8-2 ATS. Over plays are 8-1.

-Houston Bowl- The representative of the Big 12 have gone 3-2-1 ATS(last year Kansas St. was mauled by Rutgers 37-10).

-Independence Bowl- The underdogs are 6-3 ATS.(Alabama failed to cover against Ok. St at +1.5 , 34-31 final)

-Holiday Bowl- 8 straight underdog covers(Streak broke last year as Cal crushed A &M)

-Meineke Car Care Bowl- The ACC has cashed the last 3 out of 5 games.(Last year BC beat Navy by 1 point and failed to cover spread)

-Alamo Bowl- The Big Ten team is 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS.(Iowa covered spread against Texas but failed to win SU)

-MusicCity Bowl- The SEC representative is 2-6 SU & ATS(Last year Kentucky as a DD dog won SU against Clemson). The bowl game has went Under in its last 5.

-MPC Computers Bowl- The favorite is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS.(Miami won SU but failed to cover spread against Nevada)

-Sun Bowl- Dogs are 10-1-1 ATS.

-Liberty Bowl- this bowl game has gone Under 12 times in its last 15.Last year went over 56 with South Carolina/Houston)

-Peach Bowl- The representative of the ACC has gone 4-2 SU & ATS. The Under is 8-3.(Last year Georgia won SU as dog and total went over)

-Cotton Bowl- Has gone Under 10 out of 12 times. (last year under with Auburn/Neb combining for 31)

-Outback Bowl- Underdogs have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS.(Last year Penn St. won SU against Tenn) The Over has hit the last 5 times(streak broken last year as these two teams scored 30 points combined).

-Gator Bowl- The favorite is 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS.(WV won SU last year against Ga Tech but failed to cover spread)

-Capital One Bowl- Six of the last 9 games have gone Over.(Last year went under with Wisc/Ark combining for 31 points)

-Rose Bowl- Designated Home Teams are 12-2 ATS.(Pretty sure USC was home team last year against Michigan)

-Sugar Bowl- Three straight Underdog covers(streak broke as LSU destroyed Notre Dame. The Under is 9-4-1.(Total went under last year)

-Fiesta Bowl- The team with the better SU record has won 10 Fiesta Bowl Games in a row, both SU & ATS.(Boise State entered 12-0 and Oklahoma 11-2...Boise State got it done)

posted by phantom

Dec. 6 2007 4:50pm
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Pointwise

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

PEPPERDINE over Byu (Sat) RATING: 1

SO FLORIDA over Wake Forest (Wed) RATING: 1

DENVER over Penn State (Sat) RATING: 2

MEMPHIS over Cincinnati (Wed) RATING: 2

ARK-LITTLE ROCK over Fla-Int'nal (Sat) RATING: 3

VIRGINIA TECH over Old Dominion (Sun) RATING: 3

ST BONAVENTURE over Wright St (Tues) RATING: 4

LA-MONROE over La-Lafayette (Sun) RATING: 4

ARIZONA over Fresno State (Sun) RATING: 5

OKLAHOMA over Arkansas (Sat) RATING: 5

NFL KEY RELEASES

MINNESOTA over Chicago RATING: 2

PITTSBURGH over Jacksonville RATING: 3

TAMPA BAY over Atlanta RATING: 4

SAN DIEGO over Detroit RATING: 4

NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington RATING: 5

POINSETTIA

BOWL

UTAH (8-4) vs NAVY (8-4)

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 20

9:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Utah ............ 39.7 ...26-26 ... 19-17 .. 164-132 ...199-188 .. +10 . Utah

Navy............ 34.3 ...40-37 ... 24-24 .. 352-173 .....93-266 .. - 1 . by 13.1 Pts

ANALYSIS

Here we go! The first of no less than thirty two Bowl Games! As we noted on

our '06 Bowl Report #1, we released our very first bowl edition (Tues, Dec 16,

1969), and it consisted of exactly 8 Bowls: Sun, Gator, Peach, Blue Bonnet,

Rose, Cotton, Orange, & Sugar. Now the "bowl eligible" mission seems the main

quest for the vast majority of marginal squads, many of whom make it into post

season play. As far as this contest is concerned, a couple of bowl veterans surely

figure to give the fans their money's worth. For the Middies of Navy, this marks

their 5th-straight winning season, something that they hadn't accomplished since

a similar streak in 1978-82. And they've done it in their usual style, namely with

an overland game that has been their forte for ages. At season's end, they ranked

#1 in the nation for the 3rd straight year, & they've finished at #3 or better in all

6 year's of Johnson's reign, but he has now departed. The highlight game, was

snapping their 44-game losing streak vs Notre Dame, altho it took all 46 pts to do

it, as they allowed 44 pts & 375 yds to an Irish team which fielded the nation's

worst offense. Navy is a defensive sieve, ranking 109th in scoring. Try ceding

635 yds & 62 pts to a North Texas squad, which won 2 games. A year ago, Navy

faced Boston College in the Meineke Bowl, with the Eagles entering on a 6-game

bowl winning streak. And this season, they take on a Utah team which has also

won its last 6 bowl games (covering the last 5). The Utes, obviously, are more

balanced, with RB Mack, & QB Johnson (65%) the leaders, & feature a defense

which ranks 14th in the nation. It is rare that we buck a service academy team in

a bowl game, but that Middie "D" is just too much to ignore. Thus, a mild Ute call.

PROPHECY: UTAH 44 - Navy 31 RATING: 6

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (7-5) vs MEMPHIS (7-5)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21

8:00 PM EST -- ESPN2 TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO

Fla Atlantic . 37.2 ...30-34 ... 21-23 .. 127-180 ...286-238 .. +19 . Memphis

Memphis ..... 34.0 ...29-31 ... 24-23 .. 140-210 ...308-230 .. + 6 . by 3.7 Pts

ANALYSIS

From not even fielding a football team, prior to 2001, to a bowl game appearance

in 2007. That is simply an amazing accomplishment, but just the latest in the

storied career of its Hall of Fame head coach, Howard Schnellenberger, who is

best known for turning Miami of Florida into an annual national title contender, &

winning it all in '83. But he also was head man at Louisville, taking over a 2-9

team in '85, & leading them to a 10-1-1 record, including a 34-7 thumping of

Alabama in the '90 Fiesta Bowl. And, in Boca Raton, he has again performed his

collegiate magic. Not only have these Owls been rewarded with a holiday slot,

but Atlantic has a pair of 9-win seasons already under its belt (9-2 in '03, & 9-3 in

'04). The featured performer on this year's squad is QB Rusty Smith, who was

named Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Week 4 times, with his prodigious overhead

accomplishments (256-of-447 for 3,352 yds, & 27 TDs, with just 8 INTs). In

the Owls' 42-39 win over then-dangerous Minnesota, he threw for a school record

463 yds & 5 TDs. And in Atlantic's season-ending 38-32 upset of Troy, he went

23-of-34 for 291 yds (2/0). Oh, and note a defense which thrives on the takeaway,

as FAU ranks #1 in the land in TO ratio (+19). Yes, the fastest start-up program

ever to make it to a bowl game. For the Tigers of Memphis, this marks their 4th

bowl reward in the past 5 seasons (all under HC Tommy West), & thus far, they've

performed decently (2-1, both SU & ATS). A slow start, attributed to the Bradford

tragedy, has turned into a 5-1 stretch drive, in which they've managed to outscore

their opponents, by a combined 215-205 score. That's right, the nation's 20th

"O", but 99th "D". Remember last year, when Troy won this game 41-17. Again.

HAVE A HEALTHY NEW YEAR PROPHECY: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 38 - Memphis 33 RATING: 5

PAPAJOHNS

BOWL

AT BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA

NEW MEXICO

BOWL

AT ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO

CINCINNATI (9-3) vs SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (7-5)

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

1:00 PM EST -- ESPN2 TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Cincinnati .... 41.7 ...37-19 ... 22-20 .. 157-106 ...282-265 .. +17 . Cincinnati

So Miss ....... 36.3 ...25-24 ... 21-20 .. 176-149 ...200-221 .. - 4 . by 7.7 Pts

ANALYSIS

As we wrote a year ago, the Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi have become

a near permanent holiday fixture, & here they are again, participating in their 10th

bowl game in the past 11 seasons. In their previous 9 bowls, they've gone 6-3 on

the field, & 5-4 vs the pts, with their only SU win/ATS loss coming in a 31-19 win

over Arkansas St, in the '05 New Orleans Bowl, as 16-pt chalks. A year ago,

they covered by 14Â½, in their 28-7 win over Ohio U, in the New Orleans Bowl.

This has been a typical season for the Eagles, as their 7-5 log has been the norm

under Jeff Bower, who is coaching his final game at SM, thereby ending a 29-yr

relationship with the school, as a player & coach, with this his 14th consecutive

winning season. The chalk has been the way to go of late, in games involving

Southern, especially away from Hattiesburg, where it is has covered 15 of its last

20 contests. They are led by RB Fletcher, who finished the season with 1,431

yds (5.4 ypr) & 15 TDs, on top of his brilliant frosh season of 1,388 yds & 11 TDs.

Overhead, however, shows just 12 TD passes & 13 INTs for Young & Reaves.

Not the case with the Bearcats of Cincinnati, who are playing in their 6th bowl

game in the past 8 years. They are led by QB Ben Mauk, who transferred from

Wake Forest, & wound up as the nation's 9th rated passer (2,787 yds, 61.4%,

27 TDs, & just 6 INTs). As can be seen above, the Cincy offense is weighted

toward the pass, but note a 4.2-3.0 ypr rushing edge over the entire course of the

season. And be sure to take note of the fact that the Bearcats rank 2nd in the

nation in the takeaway, with 39. The quality of opposition is heavily in the Bearcats'

corner, & Cincy has delivered the money all season long. We call their number.

PROPHECY: CINCINNATI 39 - Southern Mississippi 22 RATING: 4

NEW MEXICO (8-4) vs NEVADA (6-6)

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

4:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Nw Mexico .. 38.0 ...25-21 ... 18-18 .. 137-129 ...222-202 .. + 1 . Nevada

Nevada........ 35.1 ...36-33 ... 24-21 .. 227-173 ...263-231 .. - 4 . by 3.9 Pts

ANALYSIS

The 2nd year for this newest of bowls, with the homestanding Lobos of New

Mexico again playing host. A year ago, they were a bit embarrassed in losing to

San Jose St, 20-12, as the same FG chalks that they are this time around. The

fumble (4) killed New Mexico in that contest, as they held nearly a 100-yd edge

over the Spartans. This season has been just an extension of the successful

tenure of coach Rocky Long, whose minions have gone bowling 6 times in his 11

years at the helm. The Lobos broke our hearts in their opener, when, as our Top

College Play on Pointwise, as 3Â½ pt chalks over Utep, they held edges of 23-12

in FDs, 379-195 in yds, & 38:23-21:37 in time, but managed only 6 pts, in losing

10-6. Ouch! But once more, they've righted their ship, & find themselves again

in the post-season picture. Their ace is RB Ferguson, who finished with 1,177

yds & 13 TDs, while ranking 36th in the nation, while QB Porterie stood at 58.6 for

2,652 yds & 13 TDs, but 8 INTs at season's end. Easy wins were hardly the

norm, as 4 of their 7 wins over lined foes came by just 2, 3, 3, & 3 pts, and note

only a 4-ppg edge over the course of the season. The Wolfpack of Nevada Reno

has really lit it up this season, ranking 7th in the nation on offense, & 16th in the

land in scoring. RB Lippincott sets the tone (1,380 yds & 15 TDs), with QB

Kaepernick at 55.6% for 2,038 yds. Not that impressive? Okay, how about 19

TD passes & only 3 INTs? Good enough to place him 5th in the nation among

QBs. And WR Mitchell averaged 22.0 yd per catch. The last 5 lined Nevada

road gms have seen finals of 36-31, 69-67, 31-28, 40-38,& 27 -24. That Reno

"D" can definitely jump up & bite the 'Pack, but its explosive "O" may neutralize it.

PROPHECY: Nevada 37 - NEW MEXICO 33 RATING: 5

LAS VEGAS

BOWL

HAWAII

BOWL

BRIGHAM YOUNG (10-2) vs UCLA (6-6)

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

BYU ............ 39.5 .. 32-19 .. 25-17 .. 154- 92 ... 304-215 .. - 6 . BYU

UCLA .......... 45.1 .. 23-23 .. 17-19 .. 150-115 .. 185-233 .. - 4 . by 6.9 Pts

ANALYSIS

A bowl rarity here, and it's spelled r-e-v-e-n-g-e. That's right, these two have

already met this season, in week #2 to be exact, when the hosting Bruins of

UCLA, as 7Â½ pt chalks, took the measure of the Cougars of BYU, 27-17,

despite deficits of 23-15 in FDs, & 435-236 in total yards! The Bruins have had

their moments, to be sure, with 45, 44, & 45 pt outbursts in 3 of their first 5

games, but they've been hit hard by the injury bug, especially at QB, with both

Olson & Cowan missing considerable time, altho both should be ready for this

contest. The Uclans, as usual, have seen plenty of bowl action, with this their

6th straight holiday appearance, but note suffering through 7, 6, 4, 5, 7, 6, 6, &

6 loss seasons from '99 thru '07, with the exception being their 10-2 mark in

'05, & even that year saw the Bruins allowing 34.2 ppg (10th worst in the

nation). This year they failed to top 16 pts on 5 occasions, & were completely

outplayed in their finale vs USC, with 26-10 FD, 231-12 RY, & 437-168 TY

deficits. Yet, through it all, the Bruins managed an 8-4 spread mark, going a

perfect 5-0 as dogs, by 63 pts ATS. For the Coogs, this marks their 26th bowl

game since '74. Records of 5-7, 4-8, & 5-6 kept them home for the holidays in

'02, '03, & '04, but Mendenhall has made school history since that dry spell,

becoming the first head coach to take the Cougars bowling in his first 3 years.

All three have been spent in Las Vegas. How have they done so far? A push

in '05's 35-28 loss to Cal, in which they had a mere 469-446 yd deficit; and a

38-8 rout of Oregon last year, as 3Â½ pt chalks (30-14 FD & 548-260 yd edges).

BYU is on a 21-9 ATS run, ranks 15th on "O", 9th on "D". Revenge? You bet.

PROPHECY: BYU 30 - Ucla 20 RATING: 5

BOISE STATE (10-2) vs EAST CAROLINA (7-5)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23

8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Boise St ...... 34.7 .. 43-20 .. 24-17 .. 193-117 .. 284-217 .. + 4 . Boise St

E Carolina .. 39.3 .. 30 30 ... 19-23 .. 171-146 .. 207-290 .. +14 . by 10.1 Pts

ANALYSIS

What, the Hawaii Rainbows not playing in the Hawaii Bowl? Well, actually it

also happened just 2 years ago, when Nevada (-3) prevailed 49-48 in OT, over

Central Florida. Besides, the 'Bows have bigger fish to fry, come New Year's

Day, as they are this year's edition of "Cinderella", just as the Broncos of Boise

State were a season ago, in their stunning upset of Oklahoma, in the Fiesta

Bowl. For Boise, this marks its 6th straight bowl game, & its 8th since 1999,

when the Broncs first burst on the scene with their scintillating offense. At

least 10 wins in 7 of those 9 seasons (8 in '01, & 9 in '05), with LY's 13-0 mark

the acme. They again are among the elites, offensively, ranking 10th in total

"O", as well as 3rd in scoring. A year ago, they were led by QB Zabransky,

who finished 8th in the nation (66.4%, 20 TDs, 7 INTs). Well, he has been ably

replaced by Tharp, who coincidentally, ranks 8th in the nation (68.3%, 28 TDs,

9 INTs). Truly amazing. And RB Johnson is now at 2,743 RYs & 41 TDs the

past 2 years. Note that this marks their 2nd Honolulu appearance in the past

month (39-27 loss to Hawaii in WAC showdown). The Pirates of East Carolina

have been on a steady rise since their 1-11 mark in '03, & have posted an

enviable 25-11 spread mark over the past 3 seasons, including a decent 7-5

record this season. Plenty of "O", but very little "D". As a matter of fact,

they've averaged 41 ppg in 7 of their last 8 games, but allowed 37 ppg in 9 of

their last 11 games. They rank 97th in total "D", & 115th vs the pass. Tharp,

anyone? We know that double digit chalks can be poison come bowl time, but

heavy weight is a weekly occurrence for the Broncos. Feast on the Pirate "D".

PROPHECY: BOISE STATE 45 - East Carolina 24 RATING: 2

posted by phantom

Dec. 14 2007 9:51pm
0 likes

Pointwise

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EMERALD

BOWL

AT SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA

OREGON STATE (8-4) vs MARYLAND (6-6)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

8:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Oregon St ... 46.0 .. 28-23 .. 19-17 .. 167- 75 ... 204-238 .. + 1 . Oregon St

Maryland .... 44.8 .. 25-22 .. 19-19 .. 147-137 .. 203-219 .. + 7 . by 9.5 Pts

ANALYSIS

Okay, which Maryland Terrapin shows up here, the one which posted RY edges

of 239-82 over Rutgers (27-pt cover), 249-10 over NCSt (39Â½-pt cover), &

135-45 over BC (14-pt cover), or the one which was outrushed 353-89 by

West Virginia (2-pt ATS loss), & 249-97 by Clemson (9Â½-pt ATS loss)? Sure,

the Mountaineers & Tigers are Top Ten caliber squads, but so are Rutgers &

BC, which climbed as high as 10th & 2nd in the nation, respectively. Thus,

altho the Terps wound up the season as a 50/50 team, they are much more

than that. Just 2 losses by more than a TD, with 5 of their 7 spread losses by

just 2, 3Â½ (OT), 5, Â½, & Â½ pt. And that includes taking on no less than 8 bowl

teams. In their annihilation of 17Â½ pt chalk Rutgers, the Terps held a 36:57-

23:03 time edge, & in their rout of NCSt, which got them to "bowl eligible"

status, they held a 37:55-22:05 time edge. A true "under-the-radar" squad.

The Oregon State Beavers have also been a generally unnoticed team, never

cracking the Top 25, due mostly to their 2-3 start, which saw them being belted

for 34, 44, & 40 pts. Oh, by the way, they had a cumulative minus 11 TOs in

those 3 early setbacks, 2 of which resulted in spread losses of 34 & 28Â½ pts.

Their horse, of course, is RB Bernard, who has topped the 1,000 yd mark for

the past 3 seasons, but whose 4.4 ypr average this season, is hardly anything

special. He is expected to play, despite undergoing knee surgery. When the

dust settled on the regular season, the Beavers ranked 2nd best in the entire

nation in rushing "D", with an unmatched 2.13 ypr stop unit. Both are highly

competitive bowl squads, but that Beav rush "D" may be the final determinant.

PROPHECY: OREGON STATE 27 - Maryland 17 RATING: 6

MEINEKE

BOWL

AT CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA

WAKE FOREST (8-4) vs CONNECTICUT (9-3)

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29

1:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Wk Forest ... 41.0 .. 28-23 .. 19-19 .. 136- 97 ... 174-220.. +11 . Wk Forest

UConn ........ 41.1 .. 28-19 .. 20-18 .. 165-159 .. 193-188.. + 8 . by 8.1 Pts

ANALYSIS

This contest marks just the first time in school history, that the Deacons of

Wake Forest have participated in the bowl picture in back-to-back seasons,

with just the '46 Gator, '49 Dixie, & '79 Tangerine gracing their resume, before

2 bowls in the '90s, & this, their 3rd since '02. Grobe has done a masterful job

the past couple of seasons, with Wake a combined 19-7, since the onset of

'06. A year ago, they made it to the Orange Bowl, after a 9-6 win over Ga Tech

in the ACC title game, & proceeded to hold mighty Louisville to just 24 pts (16

below the Cards' average), before losing 24-13 (1-pt ATS loss). QB Skinner

has thrown for 1,936 yds, with an eye-popping 72% completion rate. But he

has thrown for just 11 TDs, along with 12 INTs. Frosh RB Adams has been a

pleasant surprise (887 yds & 10 TDs), with WR Moore at 899 yds & 5 TDs.

And that rush "D" ranks 17th in the nation, holding all but 2 foes under 116

RYs. Oh, by the way, rumors of Grobe heading to Arkansas have proven just

that - rumors. He is staying. And so, apparently, is coach Randy Edsall of the

Connecticut Huskies, who was rumored to be heading for Georgia Tech. UConn

has risen quickly, under his tutelage, with this its 2nd bowl in 4 years, the first

a 39-10 rout of Toledo, as a 3Â½ pt dog, in the '04 Motor City. QB Lorenzen is

their trigger (2,269 yds, 13 TDs, 5 picks), but RBs Dixon & Brown combined

for 1,558 yds & 11 TDs. The Huskies ranked 2nd in the nation in scoring "D",

before being pulverized, 66-21, in their finale vs WVa, so take note of a non

conference schedule which included Duke, Maine, Temple, & Akron. In an

oddity, both lost to Virginia by the same score, 17-16. Home field decides this.

PROPHECY: WAKE FOREST 26 - Connecticut 19 Ratin 1

Motor City Bowl

7-5) vs CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-5)

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Purdue ........ 42.4 .. 33-25 .. 24-21 .. 136-151 .. 287-151.. + 4 . Purdue

C Michigan . 36.3 .. 34-36 .. 24-24 .. 186-166 .. 265-285.. + 3 . by 1.2 Pts

ANALYSIS

Did anyone say revenge? Once in a bowl season is a rarity, but this year there

are 2 such setups, with this contest joining that category, as the Boilermakers

of Purdue (-22) pounded the Chippewas of Central Michigan, 45-22 on week

#3 of this season. Purdue led it 38-0, before CM's LeFevour got hot, to narrow

it to 38-22, before the eventual 1-pt Boiler cover. A 223-101 RY edge for PU

in that rout. However, from a 5-0 start, & a Top 25 ranking, the Boilers would

wind up on a 3-game slide, finishing tied for 7th in the Big Ten, along with

Indiana, Michigan St, & Northwestern. Their 33 ppg "O" is led by prolific QB

Painter, who threw for 3,300 yds, 26 TDs (9 INTs), but their "D" has impressed

only sporadically, & they failed to cover in their last 4 away games. The Chips

play on the turf of Ford Field for the 4th time in the past 2 years, & thus far, the

results have been more than satisfactory, with 31-10 & 35-10 wins in the '06 &

'07 MAC Title games, & a 31-14 win over Middle Tennessee in this bowl a year

ago. Talk about your friendly confines. That bowl game, by the way, marked

just their 3rd bowl trip (1st since the '94 Las Vegas). Jones has filled in nicely

as head coach, after '06's head man Brian Kelly bolted for Cincinnati which

losit its head coach to MIchigan St. The Chips are at their best in league play,

as they are 114 pts ahead of the spread in their last 11 MAC games, but have

a 164-90 pt deficit in their 4 non-conference games. LeFevour has been the

quintessential steadying hand at QB, with a spectacular 6,229 PYs & 48 TDs

the past 2 yrs. We would love to give the nod to the Chips, especially on this

field, as such heavy dogs, but we simply can't dismiss that earlier 38-0 deficit.

PROPHECY: Purdue 41 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN 27 RATING: 5

3) vs ARIZONA STATE (10-2)

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27

8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Texas .......... 41.6 .. 36-25 .. 23-21 .. 200- 99 ... 262-276.. - 3 . Texas

Arizona St .. 43.3 .. 32-20 .. 22-18 .. 151-107 .. 259-232.. + 7 . by 3.4 Pts

ANALYSIS

For the 4th time in 8 years, the Longhorns of Texas return to the Holiday Bowl.

Vince Young, of course, took them to a pair of Rose Bowls, with 11-1 & 13-0

marks, the 2nd of which won for them the National Title. Since his departure,

Mack Brown's team has compiled a 19-6 log. A mark that the vast majority of

squads would cherish, but not up to their combined record of 56-8, the previous

4 seasons. They again rank among the elite squads in moving the ball,

finishing in the 12th spot in total offense, & 19th in scoring. RB Charles has

been their "go-to" man, finishing the regular season with 1,458 yds (6.3 ypr),

along with 18 TDs. But altho QB McCoy has thrown for 3,129 yds (64.9%) &

21 TDs, he has also tossed a co-Big 12 leading 18 interceptions. And check

the 'Horns allowing 35.2 ppg over their final 4 games. They are, of course, a

bowl season fixture, with this marking their 46th such contest, & in recent

years, jumping on the underdog has proven profitable, with the pup covering 7

of their last 8 holiday games. The Sun Devils of Arizona State had Rose Bowl

dreams as late as the final week of the season, but it wasn't to be. Dennis

Erickson inherited 16 starters from LY's 7-6 bowl team, & broke to an 8-0 start,

climbing to the 6th spot in the nation, before a loss to Oregon, despite a 489-

400 yd edge. Carpenter would rank 15th among the nation's QBs at season's

end, with 3,015 yds (63%), 23 TDs, & 8 INTs. Defensively, only 2 teams topped

146 RYs vs the Devils, who ranked 13th vs the run. Neither team did much

down the stretch, with the Suns entering on at 0-4 ATS, & the 'Horns at 1-3-1.

Holiday Bowls sure have seen their share of wild games. More of the same.

PROPHECY: ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 36 RATING: 4

TCU (7-5) vs HOUSTON (8-4)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

8:00 PM EST -- NFL NETWORK TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

TCU............. 37.5 .. 27-19 .. 22-17 .. 169-109 .. 219-211 .. - 6 . TCU

Houston ..... 34.9 .. 36-30 .. 26-18 .. 240-143 .. 273-224 .. - 8 . by 7.4 Pts

ANALYSIS

A couple of old Southwest Conference & Conference USA squads meet in the

2nd annual Texas bowl, & fittingly, both are from the Lone Star State, altho the

Cougars of Houston, obviously, have the decided home edge. For the Frogs

of TCU, this marks their 9th bowl appearance in the last 10 years, and the 6th

trip in the 7 years of Patterson's reign, since taking over for the departed Dennis

Franchione, who worked miracles his 3 years at the helm, before leaving

for Alabama in '01. This year's Frog squad is successful, to be sure, but a

definite drop from the past couple of seasons, in which TCU compiled a record

of 22-3, along with a 17-7 log vs the spread. No, those teams hardly needed

wins in their final 2 games of the year, to achieve a winning record, which was

the case this season. They lost 7 starters from LY's potent offense, including

QB Ballard & his .905 career winning percentage. Dalton? Over 2,200 PYs,

but just 10 TDs & 10 INTs. Thus, a team which really has impressed in only 1

of its dozen games, that brilliant 37-0 shutout of a decent New Mexico squad.

The Coogs are one of more than a few squads, which own the double edged

sword of a highly productive offense, only to be dragged down by a vulnerable

defense. The nation's 4th best (& splendidly balanced) "O", which has topped

26 pts in 32 of their last 37 games, but a "D" which has allowed more than 26

pts in 10 of its last 12 lined contests. Check RB Aldridge with 1,568 yds, along

with a 6.4 ypr average. But Houston enters this contest on an 0-4 spread run,

by an average of 16.5 ppg ATS. And the Cougars have allowed 54, 42, & 44

pts in their 3 bowl games since '03. Back-&-forth, but can't back Houston "D".

PROPHECY: TCU 41 - Houston 31 RATING: 4

BOSTON COLLEGE (10-3) vs MICHIGAN STATE (7-5)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

5:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Bost Coll .... 44.5 .. 29-20 .. 24-19 .. 107- 68 ... 330-263 .. + 3 . Bost Coll

Mich St ....... 42.2 .. 34-27 .. 21-18 .. 200-134 .. 226-217 .. + 5 . by 1.1 Pts

ANALYSIS

If Utah's 6-game bowl winning streak ranks 2nd currently, which team ranks

1st? Right, the Eagles of Boston College, who've won 7 straight holiday games,

covering 6, with their only miss by 5Â½ pts in LY's 25-24 miracle win over Navy

in the Meineke Bowl. And they did have to survive another near miraculous

comeback by Boise in the '05 MPC Computer Bowl. Led by QB Ryan, who

threw for 4,258 yds & 28 TDs, the Eagles climbed to the #2 spot in the nation,

& stayed there for 3 weeks, before being upset by Florida St & Maryland, on

consecutive Saturdays. Altho their running game was nearly non-existent down

the stretch (63 ypg in their final 6 outings), they still managed to meet Virginia

Tech in the ACC title game. But they couldn't repeat their earlier heartstopping

effort vs the Huskies, when Ryan threw a pair of TD passes in the final 2:11,

losing 30-16. No running "O", but an equally stingy running "D", which finished

as the nation's best, allowing the above 68 ypg. Can the balanced Spartans,

who haven't graced the holiday scene since the '03 Alamo Bowl, & who haven't

won a bowl game since the '01 Silicon Valley Classic, dent that defense? Well,

truth be told, only Pittsburgh & Ohio St were able to hold the MSU offense in

check, & that includes overcoming a 24-7 deficit vs PennSt & the Lions' 9th

ranked "D", in their regular season finale. Ringer & Caulcrick have combined

for 2,159 RYs & 27 TDs, while QB Hoyer ranks 2nd best in the Big Ten among

QBs (61.5%). Defensively, the Spartans are hardly anything special, with a

32.5 ppg "D" in their last 8 games. But the dog is plus 55Â½ pt ATS in the last

10 games involving BC. We'll grab the pts, in what could be a classic match.

PROPHECY: MICHIGAN STATE 27 - Boston College 26 RATING: 3

PURDUE (7-5) vs CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-5)

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Purdue ........ 42.4 .. 33-25 .. 24-21 .. 136-151 .. 287-151.. + 4 . Purdue

C Michigan . 36.3 .. 34-36 .. 24-24 .. 186-166 .. 265-285.. + 3 . by 1.2 Pts

ANALYSIS

Did anyone say revenge? Once in a bowl season is a rarity, but this year there

are 2 such setups, with this contest joining that category, as the Boilermakers

of Purdue (-22) pounded the Chippewas of Central Michigan, 45-22 on week

#3 of this season. Purdue led it 38-0, before CM's LeFevour got hot, to narrow

it to 38-22, before the eventual 1-pt Boiler cover. A 223-101 RY edge for PU

in that rout. However, from a 5-0 start, & a Top 25 ranking, the Boilers would

wind up on a 3-game slide, finishing tied for 7th in the Big Ten, along with

Indiana, Michigan St, & Northwestern. Their 33 ppg "O" is led by prolific QB

Painter, who threw for 3,300 yds, 26 TDs (9 INTs), but their "D" has impressed

only sporadically, & they failed to cover in their last 4 away games. The Chips

play on the turf of Ford Field for the 4th time in the past 2 years, & thus far, the

results have been more than satisfactory, with 31-10 & 35-10 wins in the '06 &

'07 MAC Title games, & a 31-14 win over Middle Tennessee in this bowl a year

ago. Talk about your friendly confines. That bowl game, by the way, marked

just their 3rd bowl trip (1st since the '94 Las Vegas). Jones has filled in nicely

as head coach, after '06's head man Brian Kelly bolted for Cincinnati which

losit its head coach to MIchigan St. The Chips are at their best in league play,

as they are 114 pts ahead of the spread in their last 11 MAC games, but have

a 164-90 pt deficit in their 4 non-conference games. LeFevour has been the

quintessential steadying hand at QB, with a spectacular 6,229 PYs & 48 TDs

the past 2 yrs. We would love to give the nod to the Chips, especially on this

field, as such heavy dogs, but we simply can't dismiss that earlier 38-0 deficit.

PROPHECY: Purdue 41 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN 27 RATING: 5

posted by phantom

Dec. 14 2007 9:52pm
0 likes

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK: /b]

POINSETTIA BOWL

Navy Military teams are 19-6 ATS as bowlers

Utah Utes 5-0 SUATS L5 bowl games

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

Fla Atlantic Coach Schnellenberger 4-0 SU as bowler

Memphis Dog 4-0 L4 Tigers / Sun Belt Conference games

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL

Southern Miss Bower 15-6 after score 21 < points vs non-con opp

Cincinnati Bearcats 0-4 (1-3 SU) bowler off win

NEW MEXICO BOWL

Nevada Dog is 5-0 ATS in Tomey bowl games

NEW MEXICO Home teams in bowl games are 19-11 SU & 17-13 ATS

LAS VEGAS BOWL

Ucla Bruins 7-3 (8-2 SU) vs MWC opp

Byu 5-1 ATS L6 games vs non con opp

HAWAII BOWL

East Carolina Pirates 16-5 dog w/ Holtz

Boise State Broncos 5-2 SUATS L7 bowl games

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

The Utah Utes are2-18 ATS as favorites in games in which they are outrushed.

COLLEGE BOWLS

Thursday, December 20th

POINSETTIA BOWL

Utah over Navy by 3

Navy will land at San Diego with the fi rst Polynesian head coach in

NCAA history, Ken Niumatalolo, who takes over for the departing

Paul Johnson (Ga. Tech). Middies lead the nation in rushing yards at

352 per game but an obvious concern is a Midshipmen â€˜Dâ€™ that has

been torpedoed for season high â€“ or second high â€“ yards in half their

games in â€™07. Behind all-conference QB Brian Johnson, Utah fi nished

strong by winning and covering six of its fi nal seven games. The Utes

are hot but so is this little bit of military history: service academy

teams are 19-6 ATS as bowlers â€“ and a superb 9-1 when they outrush

their foes. Our INCREDIBLE STAT backs up those numbers, and with

that weâ€™ll be running with the Middies today

Friday, December 21st

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

Memphis over Fla Atlantic by 3

Howard Schnellenbergerâ€™s surprising Owls whipped Troy, 38-32, as

16-point road dogs to win the Sun Belt title and earn the programâ€™s

fi rst-ever bowl bid. A 2-4 start by Memphis put some heat on coach

Tommy West but the Tigers rallied down the stretch to reach their

fourth bowl in the past fi ve seasons. Despite Howieâ€™s 4-0 SU record in

postseason play, we canâ€™t back a Virgin Bowl Favorite that went 0-4

SU & ITS (In The Stats) against the fi ve bowl squads they faced this

year. Weâ€™re aware that C-USA bowlers are just 8-18 SUATS versus a

foe off a SU win but the like the Tigersâ€™ experience and the fact they

were a â€˜mission teamâ€™ that delivered the goods. Again.

Saturday, December 22nd

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL

Cincinnati over Southern Miss by 4

Despite being forced out after 14 consecutive winning seasons,

Southern Miss head coach Jeff Bower will lead his Golden Eagles onto

the fi eld one fi nal time. Bower also brings along this super stat: 10-0

SUATS since 1999 when playing with rest after scoring 21 or fewer

points in the previous game. Taking the cash from Cincinnati coach

Brian Kelly has not been an easy task â€“ heâ€™s 30-15-1 ATS for his career

and 15-2 ATS off a SU win of seven or more points. However, Big East

favorites of 7 or more points are just 4-9 ATS when taking on a bowl

foe off a win or loss of 20 or fewer points. In Jeff Bower's swan song,

weâ€™ll take Southern Miss to win one for the Gipper.

NEW MEXICO BOWL

NEW MEXICO over Nevada by 6

NU coach Chris Ault has proven to be a real ticket-casher when favored

(18-7) and but not so much as a dog (10-13). New Mexico owns some

bad bowl history of its own â€“ 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS the last 10 years â€“ but

two technical factors favor the host. First, teams off a win are 14-7

SUATS playing a bowl game on their home fi eld and, second, teams

returning to the same bowl here they lost SU the previous year are

a solid 13-5 ATS against foes off a double-digit win (6-0 if the host

is off an ATS win of 5 or more points). In a rare matchup of lupine

adversaries, the Albuquerque wolves look like the pack to back.

LAS VEGAS BOWL

Byu over Ucla by 3

Despite leading the Bruins to four bowl games in four years, coach

Karl Dorrell was given the boot and DC DeWayne Walker will lead

Ucla in its season fi nale. Riddled with injuries all season long, the

Bruinsâ€™ 25 seniors and 20 returning starters underachieved in a major

way. Our 2007 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report says not to

give up on the Angelenos here: Ucla stands 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS versus

MWC opponents and Pac 10 bowlers are a scorching 17-3 ATS as

dogs against a foe off a double-digit win. Byu lost earlier this year

in Pasadena, 27-17, as 8.5 point dogs and own a miserable 6-15 SU

& 5-25-2 ATS log off a win versus Pac 10 opponents. Toss in the fact

that the Bruins are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in this series and we cannot

justify the line in this game.

Sunday, December 23rd

HAWAII BOWL

Boise St over East Carolina by 7

Boise State's 2007 edition will have a hard time topping the Broncosâ€™

last postseason appearance, a sensational 43-42 Fiesta Bowl win over

Oklahoma that many rank an one of the greatest bowls ever played.

East Carolina may have fi nished the season just 4-8 ITS but head

coach Skip Holtz has covered in 25 of his 36 starts at ECU and heâ€™s a

perfect 10-0 ATS in games after scoring 34 or more points. Also, our

PLAYBOOK Database tells us that C-USA bowlers are 7-2 ATS versus

the WAC. Boise State may be making its sixth straight trip to a bowl

game but we donâ€™t think the Broncos fi ll the bill as double-digit chalk.

Weâ€™ll sail with the Pirates to pointspread paradise.

posted by phantom

Dec. 14 2007 9:55pm
0 likes

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:

Below is Northcoast Sports Power Plays projection for this weekendâ€™s

Div IAA/FCS Championship Game.

Friday, December 14th â€¢ Chattanooga, TN â€¢ espn2 8:00 pm ET

Yards Yards Turn SpecialRushing Passing Points Overs Teams Delaware 219 245 37 1.7 â€“

Appalachian St 336 135 37 2.4 â€“

This is the 3rd Championship game for both. While Delawareâ€™s 3 games are over a 25 yr span (â€˜82 & â€˜03),

Appalachian St is trying to make history by winning and becoming the first IAA threepeat. The Blue Hens

lost in their 1st appearance but in â€˜03 posted a 40-0 win over Colgate, the only shutout in IAA Championship

history. After an easy opening round win over Delaware St, the Blue Hens had to come from behind on the

road to defeat #1 seed Northern Iowa and #4 seed Southern Illinois. Against SIU, they trailed 10-0 after 1Q

but then scored 17 unanswered pts to lead 17-10 in the 4Q. They gave up an 88 yd KR that allowed SIU to tie

but kicked a 24 yd FG and were able to hold on for a 20-17 win. They had a 404-297 yd edge and benefited

from 2 int, a missed FG and an SIU TD which was called back on a penalty. Pitt transfer QB Joe Flacco had

243 yds (55%) with a 2-0 ratio and RB Omar Cuff added 102 yds (4.9). App St survived their 1st two playoff

games as JMU fumbled while setting up for a game winning FG (28-27) and they were able to hold off Eastern

Washington (38-35). They then face a Richmond team which handed Delaware a 62-56 loss earlier this year.

ASU looked to be in for an easy game after jumping out to a 21 pt lead in the 2Q but Richmond tied the game

at 35. The Spiers however, could not stop QB Armanti Edwards who broke several records with 495 yds

(313 rush) of total offense and 7 TD (4 rush). This is Delawareâ€™s HC KC Keelerâ€™s 2nd trip here in his 6 years

with the Blue Hens. He has just 4 players who were with the team in â€˜03 (all RS) including starting RG Rich

Beverley and starting DT Jeremy Kametz. The Mountaineers have a huge experience edge and should have

a good size crowd edge as they have a much shorter drive (270 miles) compared to Delaware (694 miles).

Our Power Plays numbers call for a 37-37 tie with just a 7 yd difference. We will analyze all of the factors this

week and release our Friday Night Private Play Hotline Play after noon ET on Friday.

POINSETTIA BOWL

NAVY (8-4) VS UTAH (8-4)

This is their 1st meeting but Utah faces a similar off every yr in MWC foe AF. This is a school record 5th

consec Navy bowl all under former HC Johnson (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) & the new HC Ken Niumatalolo (asst HC

with 10 yrs exp at Navy coaching the off) will be coaching his 1st gm. This is also UTâ€™s 5th consec bowl and

they have won their last 6 and covered the last 5. Whittingham has been the DC at Utah S/â€™95 and this is his

8th bowl trip (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS). The Utes played 7 bowl elig tms TY and were 4-3 ATS outscoring foes 25-19 but

being outgained 374-323. Navy faced 4 bowl tms and went 1-3 SU & ATS being outscored 35-28 & outgained

474-405. UT was allotted 10,000 tickets but has struggled with sales as LY they sold 1,500 tickets and 4,000 the

yr prior. There is a large Naval presence in the SD area, and the last time Navy attended this bowl (â€˜05 51-30

win over CSU, -3), they had 20,000+ fans which is one reason why Navy was guaranteed a spot last spring

(if they achieved 6 wins). They both played AF and Utah lost 20-12 being outgained 390-313 while Navy won

31-20 but was outgained 474-381. This is the final gm for 17 Ute seniors while Navy has 22 seniors. Utah is

6-2-1 ATS as a fav of 7+ the L/2Y, but Navy was 18-8 ATS as an AD under Johnson. After Utahâ€™s loss to BYU

Nov 24th, they started practicing for Navy right away, even before the bowl matchups were announced. Navy

traditionally takes the wk after Army off for finals and may only practice 8-9 times prior to the bowl.

Navy came into the yr with just 3 returning starters on D, but in the 2nd gm of the yr they lost their

top ret tackler from â€˜06, LB Sovie and their starting FS Deliz (1 of only 3 seniors in the secondary) for the

yr. After that, the defense struggled mightily with the offense practically forced to score on every poss for

the Mids to win a gm. Luckily Kaheaku-Enhada proved to be a highly proficient triple option QB leading

the tm in rushing and able to get the ball downfield (17.3 yd per comp). Navyâ€™s bevy of talented backs

have helped the Mids become the 1st team in NCAA history to lead the nation in rushing for 3 consec

yrs. Navyâ€™s productive offense (#36) has forced the tm to punt only 21 times TY (least in nation). Navyâ€™s

D finished #117 overall (438 ypg, 36.5 ppg allâ€™d) and last in our pass eff D with 3 true frosh playing major

roles in the secondary. Navy finished with 4 straight wins incl ending their 43 gm losing streak to ND, and

the D held rival Army to 3 pts to clinch a school record 5th consec Commander-In-Chiefâ€™s Trophy.

Utah had high expectations heading into the ssn, but those were quickly put on the back burner when

QB Johnson and PS#17JC RB Matt Asiata went out during the 1st game. UT decided to pull the RS off of

Mack (#30 NCAA rushing) who ended the ssn with six 100 yd rushing gms. The Utes were struggling to find

an identity losing to AF to fall to 0-2 before demolishing UCLA 44-6. The next wk they were shutout for the

1st time S/â€™93 by lowly UNLV and Whittingham issued a challenge to his tm â€œto decide who we want to be.â€

Johnson returned vs Utah St and it was pretty clear who the Utes wanted to be as they went on to win 7 straight

incl a national TV upset of Lâ€™ville in Johnsonâ€™s 2nd gm back (312 pass yds). Johnson has missed some bowl

practices (shoulder again) but they are trying to work him in gradually and he should be fine for this one. The

OL has given up 28 sks (7.5%). They have lost 9 starters due to inj since fall camp, 4 of whom were lost for the

ssn and 5 who missed at least one gm. They now take on the nationâ€™s top rush off but could be without their

top rush defender, Long, who suffered a shldâ€™r separation (which Whittingham calls worse than Johnsonâ€™s) vs

BYU. He is listed as â€œtouch and goâ€ for this gm (check philsteele.com). The Utes D rank #2 in both the NCAA

and our in pass eff D and #3 in the nation in scoring D. They have tallied 36 sks TY. MWC ST POY Sakoda

leads the nation for active dual K/Pâ€™s in career Pâ€™s and yds. Richards ranks #9 in the nation in PR avg.

After starting the ssn 1-3, Utah has the chance to finish with 9 wins for just the 5th time in school history.

LY Navy lost their bowl in heartbreaking fashion on a fmblâ€™d snap which set up a 37 yd gm winning FG

for BC which should serve as strong motivation. Fortunately Navyâ€™s high-powered off shouldnâ€™t drop-off too

much with new HC Niumatalolo taking over for Johnson who left just 2 wks prior to the bowl. Navy took the

wk off for finals after Army and wonâ€™t hit their full allotment of practices but service academies tend not get

distracted with the pageantry surrounding â€œbowl weekâ€. Navyâ€™s offense has avgâ€™d 49 ppg the L/5 and theyâ€™ve

needed them as their inj depleted D has allowed 40+ pts in 7 gms this ssn. Utahâ€™s D finished the ssn with an

impressive 4 week run (7.5 ppg) but 3 of those gm were vs the #70 (CSU), #84 (NM), & #106 (WY) offenses.

Utah is the more balanced team and weâ€™ll call for a 41-31 Utes win. Weâ€™ll also call for the â€œoverâ€™ as Utah can

move the ball on Navyâ€™s D and the Midshipmen will have some new wrinkles on offense with their new HC. FORECAST: OVER 66.5 RATING: 3★

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

FLORIDA ATL (7-5) VS MEMPHIS (7-5)

1st ever meeting. This is Memphisâ€™ 5th all-time bowl & 4th in 5 yrs under HC West. West is 2-1 SU &

ATS after going 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS as Clemsonâ€™s HC from â€˜93-â€™98. Memâ€™s last bowl was the â€˜05 Motor City

(38-31 win) where RB Dâ€™Angelo Williams set an NCAA rec with 34 career 100+ yard gms (bowl rec 238

yds on the day). For FAU this is their 1st ever bowl as they just started playing IA ball in â€˜04 becoming the

fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in â€˜01 when they

didnâ€™t have a FB team. He is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls, the last one was a win in the â€˜93 Liberty Bowl vs Mich

St, 18-7. He also won a Natâ€™l Championship with Miami in â€˜83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms going 1-5 SU

& 2-4 ATS being outgained 416-409 & outscored 35-28 incl a loss to Fla. Mem played 3 going 1-2 SU &

ATS being outgained 516-406 & outscored 46-30. They faced 2 common opp TY (Ark St, Mid Tenn). Mem

(0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) was outgained 440-322 & outscored 28-19 while FAU (2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS) outgained

them 393-237 & outscored them 31-23. Mem has 7 seniors among their 17 upperclassmen starters while

FAU has 5 seniors of their 14. FAU is 2-1 ATS on turf TY while Mem is 7-3 ATS on turf incl a 28-27 (+2â€™)

win here vs Tulane earlier TY. This is Memâ€™s 2nd trip to this bowl. In â€˜03 they broke the nationâ€™s longest bowl

drought (beat N Texas 27-17) & are 3-0 SU & ATS in the Superdome. They are 8-2 ATS as an AD while

FAU is 4-1 ATS as an AF. Mem figures to have the crowd edge bringing 10,000 strong here in â€˜03.

FAU has our #59 rated off led by QB Smith (6-5 212) who was a 4x SBC POW TY incl the L/2W in

key wins which got them here. Smith matured in the 2H of the ssn avg 301 ypg (61%) with a 14-5 ratio

and going 4-2 to win the SBC Title. FAU has speedy WRâ€™s and also utilizes their TE in the pass gm as 5

players have 23+ catches. The FAU run gm struggled outside the SBC avg just 99 ypg (2.7) although all

5 non-conf foes were BCS schools. RB Pierre led the tm but had zero 100 yd gms and FAU on the ssn

failed to have anyone break the 100 yd plateau. The OL is smallish avg 6â€™2â€ 262 with 1 Sr starter and

although inexperienced did improve down the stretch as they allâ€™d 15 sks (3.2%) and opened holes for

127 ypg (3.5) on the year. The D, which had 15 sks, lost 2 good players in DLâ€™s Pinnick & Savidge (knee

injâ€™s) but still played tough allâ€™g just 142 ypg (4.1) the L/4 gms (ssn 180, 4.. The LB corps may be the

best in the SBC as Joseph & Sincere are #1 & #2 tacklers in the conf. The secondary has had an int in 20

straight gms and rFr Polo has 7 on the yr. The Panthers rank #80 in our pass eff D (238 ypg, 65%, 24-19

ratio) and overall have our #83 ranked D allâ€™g 34 ppg and 417 ypg.

Memphis started the year 2-4 having lost a teammate who was killed, playing 3 gms in 11 days and

losing QB Hankins to inj for 2 games. When Hankins returned he was on fire avg 351 ypg (60%) with a 17-7

ratio as the Tigers went 5-1 down the stretch. Memphis has 6 WR that are 6â€™ or taller & 5 had 30+ catches

led by Calhoun (6â€™4â€) who had four 100+ yd gms the L/6 & WR Singleton (6â€™8â€) who had two 100+ yd games

in the L/4. Memphis struggled to run the ball early due to inj & had zero 100 yd rushers the 1st 6 gms. Sr

Doss, who got healthy the 2H of ssn, had two 165+ yd gms down the stretch. The Tiger O-Line, avg 6â€™4â€

301 with 2 Sr starters led by RG Smith, is #9 in the NCAA allâ€™g just 13 sacks (2.6%) and avg 140 ypg (3.9).

The Tigers have our #67 ranked offense. LY Mem fired DC Joe Lee Dunn after 3 gms & West changed the

3-3-5 to a 4-3. They struggled allowing 178 ypg rush (4.5) and 409 ypg (DL not a high recruiting priority).

This ssn they allâ€™d a staggering 210 ypg (5.2) with 26 TD ranking #110 in NCAA. The DL avg 6â€™3â€ 258 with

no seniors listed in the 4 deep (great for â€˜08). The team only had 14 sks which ranked #111 in the NCAA

and allowed their 3 bowl foes 317 ypg rush (6.. The LB corps was a strength despite losing OLB Greg

Jackson (inj) after 2 gms, Quinton McCrary (left tm in Nov) & Winston Bowens (inj) who filled in for Jackson.

Kasser took over and led the team in tkls. The secondary ranks #96 in our pass eff D allâ€™g 230 ypg (62%)

with a 20-12 ratio. The Tigers allow a staggering 440 ypg and 31 ppg ranking #107 in our D rankings.

Memphis finished the ssn winning 5 of 6 gms incl 3 upsets as underdogs. HC West thought this bowl

was a perfect fit giving his young tm a chance at an 8 win ssn. Fla Atl started the ssn 3-1 incl knocking off

Minnesota giving us our Sept 5H Winner. They finished knocking off Troy as a 16 point underdog to earn this

spot as conference champions. Both tms are undervalued and it is unfortunate that they were paired up as we

looked to play on both of them. We do look for an entertaining high scoring gm with both offenses looking for

the â€œhome runâ€ ball. The match-up with the tall receiving corps on both sides adds to this selection. Over the

L/6 games, both Mem & FAUâ€™s final scores are over 70 ttl ppg and look for another high scoring affair here. FORECAST: OVER 67 RATING: 2

posted by phantom

Dec. 14 2007 9:56pm
0 likes

2007 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER

Issue # 15 Games through December 10, 2007

Preparing for the College Bowls - Preliminary Thoughts and Conference Strength Factors

The regular college football season has ended and the focus and attention turns to the Bowl season which begins on Thursday, December 20 and culminates in the determination of a 'paper' National Champion in the BCS Title game in New Orleans Louisiana on January 7, 2006 when LSU plays Ohio State. It will be a paper championship only since in the absence of a Playoff involving Conference Champions and perhaps a handful of at-large teams it has been the computers and the polls that determined once beaten Ohio State's opponent would be LSU and not any of several other 2 loss teams or similarly once beaten Kansas - or the only unbeaten team - Hawaii (who plays in the relatively weak WAC).

What was once an honor to go to a Bowl is now almost routine for many very average football teams. Although the number of Bowls has exploded over the past two decades a Bowl game is still looked upon by many participants as a reward for a winning season. 64 of the 120 Division I-A teams will be in Bowl games this season. That's 53% of the Division I-A population. 7 of these Bowl bound teams had 6-6 records with only one of these teams -- Nevada Reno -- being from a non-BCS conference.

6 other FBS (formerly Division I-A) teams finished the 2007 season with 6-6 records but will not be going to Bowls - Iowa, Louisville, Louisiana-Monroe, Northwestern, Ohio U and South Carolina.

Four of those teams are from BCS conferences. One team is from the Sun Belt and one is from the Mid American Conference. The Sun Belt also featured an 8-4 team - Troy - who tied with Florida Atlantic for the conference title at 6-1 but lost their head to head matchup last week at home. The Trojans may have been deserving of some other minor Bowl considering their non-conference schedule featured games against 4 teams from BCS conferences who are each going bowling (Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Georgia) and included a non-fluke win over Oklahoma State..

As handicappers we truly enjoy the anticipation of the Bowl season for several reasons, foremost amongst them is that we have several weeks to fully analyze and break down most matchups.

The Bowls also present some unique handicapping challenges since the teams will not have played, in many instances, in more than a month. Several teams, most notably from the Big 10, played their final regular season game on November 17. Ohio State will face LSU for the National Title on January 7 after having been idle for 51 days! That's 7 weeks and 2 days -- MORE THAN HALF A SEASON!!!

Play can often be choppy and there have been distractions since most teams last took the field. That's even more of an argument for a Playoff that begins in late November. You'd have better play because of the continuity. Imagine the baseball Playoffs beginning on November 1 after taking the month of October off. Or the NBA Playoffs beginning on Memorial Day after the regular season ends in mid-April. Yet that's exactly the scenario for the major Bowl combatants, especially the two the decide the National Title.

But we digress. Motivation is also a key factor to consider. For some teams a Bowl is viewed as a reward while for other teams it may be more of a disappointment. Coaches also take differing views of Bowls. Some coaches concentrate on winning the game for the current roster of players while other coaches view a Bowl as a prelude to next season and often give underclassmen more playing time. Other factors that come into play are injuries, suspensions, academic dismissals and the motion of the coaching carousel whereby many coaches are in transition between programs and what often goes unlooked in the changing of head coaches is the turmoil and distractions that can exist amongst the assistant coaches. Still, the college Bowl season is an opportunity to watch many games between generally pretty good, or better, teams spread out over a two week period. Let's enjoy the experience.

A key part of the broad Bowl overview process is to gauge not just the relative strengths of the teams and conferences but also how those strengths have changed since the start of the season. Towards that end we present the following conference data which also shows Bowl records for the past 5 seasons. Note that conference results are tracked based upon conference affiliation during the season in question so that, for example, Virginia Tech's results are included in the Big East for seasons prior to 2004, the season in which they moved from the Big East to the ACC. In 2004 and later Tech's results are part of the ACC summary.

Conference Pre Season

Rank

Pre Season Rating

Current Rank

Current Rating

Rating Change

5 Year S/U

%

5 Year ATS

%

SEC 3 143.1 3 - tie 143.5 0.4 20-15 57.9 17-17-1 50.0

Big 12 4 142.1 1 - tie 144.3 2.2 19-20 48.7 16-21-2 43.2

Big East 1 143.8 3 - tie 143.5 - 0.3 13-11 54.2 11-13 45.8

ACC 6 139.1 6 140.3 1.2 21-14 60.0 21-14 60.0

Big 10 5 141.1 5 141.5 0.4 16-19 45.7 19-16 54.3

Pac 10 2 143.2 1 - tie 144.3 1.1 15-14 51.7 14-15 48.3

Mount. West 7 134.0 7 136.3 2.3 8-9 47.1 10-7 58.8

CUSA 9 127.2 9 125.5 - 1.7 10-16 38.5 11-14-1 44.0

Mid American 10 123.5 10 123.5 0 7-8 46.7 7-8 46.7

WAC 8 127.3 8 128.2 0.9 11-7 61.1 10-8 55.6

Sun Belt 11 118.8 11 121.8 3.0 2-5 28.6 3-4 42.9

Independents n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2-6 25.0 3-5 37.5

The above chart shows that most conferences are within a few games of .500 over the past 5 seasons. The ACC has had the greatest success with their identical 21-14 records both Straight Up and ATS. The two Independents in this study -- Navy and Notre Dame -- are a combined 2-6 - with Notre Dame not winning a Bowl game in 10 straight Bowls since their last Bowl victory in 1992 (and going 1-9 ATS).

Note from the above chart that all but one of the six BCS conferences increased their average Power Ratings during the 2007 season. A conference's Rating is increased by playing teams from other conferences in the early part of the season, especially teams from FCS (I-AA) conferences. Those FCS teams are usually overmatched (with all due respect to Appalachian State) and contribute to the overall increase in the average Power Ratings as a whole. The lone exception was the Big East whose Average Power Rating declined by a small 0.3 points from start to finish.

In two weeks we'll begin our comprehensive preview of the 32 Bowls to be played this season.

One of the major challenges in betting the Bowls is timing. As with everything there are tradeoffs as betting early often insures the best lines, especially when looking at favorites. But by locking yourself into a position so early risks adverse line moves from negative news such as injuries or suspensions.

Our weekly Spreadsheet does have the final regular season college statistics for all 120 Division I-A teams and is arranged in Bowl matchup order, followed by the 56 non-Bowl teams arranged in alphabetical order.

posted by phantom

Dec. 15 2007 1:25pm
0 likes

Marc L

All THIS SEASON results are collective by all teams from each conference in games played during the 2007 season. All BOWL GAME Results are since 1980, unless indicated otherwise...

ACC CONFERENCE BOWL REVIEW:

THIS SEASON: 8 bowlers â€“ collectively they were 25-43-2 ATS as favs / struggled vs non-cons (11-18-1 ATS â€“ 6-8 vs > 500) / at best against opp allowed 28.5 PPG season (16-0 SU â€“ one team TY: Florida State

ACC BOWL GAMES: 7-1 ATS as dogs L3Y / best; 25-10-1 dogs 7 < pts: Florida State, Maryland and Virginia

BIG EAST CONFERENCE BOWL REVIEW:

THIS SEASON: 5 bowlers â€“ collectively they were 11-5 ATS as dogs / 17-4-1 ATS vs non-cons (7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS vs > 500) / at best against opp allowed 23 > PPG season (22-4 SU & 16-9-1 ATS â€“ 4 teams (one a dog): Cincinnati, Connecticut, So Florida and Rutgers

BIG EAST BOWL GAMES: hot hand 5-0 SU LY / worst role: dogs 6 > pts (3-12 ATS / 0-6 off loss): West Virginia

BIG 10 CONFERENCE BOWL REVIEW:

THIS SEASON: 8 bowlers â€“ collectively 8-2-1 ATS off BBLâ€™s (4-0 vs non-cons): Michigan and Purdue / 17-9 ATS vs non cons (7-1 SU vs > 500) / at best vs opp allowed 28 > PPG season: 17-1 SU & 12-5-1 ATS : Indiana and Wisconsin

BIG 10 BOWL GAMES: from BSR â€“ 10-2-1 ATS bowlers off BBL: Michigan and Purdue

BIG 12 CONFERENCE BOWL REVIEW:

THIS SEASON: 8 bowlers â€“ collectively 5-1-1 ATS w/rest and 11-4 ATS off BB SUATS wins: Oklahoma / 27-5 SU & 18-9 ATS vs non cons (22-1 SU & 18-5 ATS as favs â€“but- 0-4 SUATS as dogs) / at best vs opp allowed 25.5 PPG on season: 31-6 SU & 22-12-2 ATS: Missouri and Oklahoma State

BIG 12 BOWL GAMES: 2-9 ATS off SU fav loss: Texas and Kansas / 1-7 ATS vs opp off BB losses: Colorado / 2-11 ATS vs opp off DDL: Texas Tech and 5-14 ATS vs opponent off loss: Texas Tech and Oklahoma

PAC 10 CONFERENCE BOWL REVIEW:

THIS SEASON: 6 bowlers â€“ collectively 8-4 SUATS w/rest / 15-3 SU & 10-7 ATS vs non con (3-1 SUATS vs > 500) / nothing special against bad defensive teams (because most of the themselves are just that) â€“ best being 25-11 SU vs opp allowed 24.5 > PPG: Arizona State

PAC 10 BOWL GAMES: quite simply: Good Dog (30-16 ATS / Bad favs (25-45-2 ATS)â€¦ best dog role: 13-1 ATS off SUATS loss - Oregon / best fav roleâ€ 6-15-2 ATS off SU loss - California

SEC CONFERENCE BOWL REVIEW:

THIS SEASON: 9 bowlers (most all conferences) â€“ collectively 7-0-2 ATS w/rest, also 19-12-2 ATS as dogs / 31-5 SU & 19-10 ATS vs non con (10-3 SUATS vs > 500) / at best vs opp allowed 27 > PPG: 27-5 SU: Alabama and Mississippi State

SEC BOWL GAMES: best roles: 13-6 ATS off SU fav loss: Kentucky / 39-23-1 ATS dogs 3 > points (19-7 ATS if .666 <): Arkansas and Mississippi State

posted by phantom

Dec. 15 2007 1:26pm
0 likes

How Conferences stack up during the Bowls

By: Doug Upstone - StatFox

Published: 12/18/2007 at 8:01:00 PM

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With 32 different bowls to wager on this upcoming season, each conference with the exception of the Sun Belt will have multiple teams in bowl games. This offers a chance to gauge the strengths and weakness of specific conferences and teams and how they might perform. By following closely, we can determine how strong one league might compete or be astounded how vulnerable another league actually is. Some years conferences are top heavy, while others have power up and down its bowl roster. Here is a look at each conference and what might occur, along with the records of the bowl teams in non-conference action, plus how the entire league fared versus other bowl bound teams from other conferences.

ACC â€“ The Atlantic Coast Conference will have eight teams playing in the post season with five teams in the favorite slot. The champion, Virginia Tech might be in the best position, even playing in a BCS game, since they roared down the stretch playing exceptional football. Virginia will need its defense to play well to hang with Texas Tech. Clemson, Florida State, and Wake Forest are all in tight contests that need more study. Georgia Tech and Boston College are both uncertain favorites for different reasons, with Maryland in worst spot taking on Oregon State who has only lost to USC in last seven contests.

Record â€“ 21-6, 10-16 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 8-4, 6-6 ATS

Big East â€“This conference will send five strong teams into bowl games. Cincinnati is double digit favorite and could roll with no-nonsense Brian Kelley as coach. Connecticut should keep paces with Wake Forest and South Florida takes on slumping Oregon who once again comes in as disappointed loser. The Rutgers program is still building and would figure to be inspired against MAC opponent, especially after blowing last game to Louisville. West Virginia is tough read after devastating loss to Pittsburgh. Possibly being the underdog against what might be the best team in the country could be enough motivation.

Record â€“ 19-2, 16-5 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS

Big Ten â€“ This league is really down and this is backed by oddsmakers who have made six of the eight teamâ€™s underdogs. Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State all appear ripe to pull the upset or at the very least cover the spread for a number of reasons. Purdue and Penn State are the favorites and each was a bad road team this season and will be facing potent offenses that can move the pigskin. Michigan and Illinois are in unenviable places, against what appears to be superior teams. Indiana, well hereâ€™s hoping they win one more for the departed coach.

Record â€“ 21-2, 14-9 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS

Big 12 â€“ No major conference was talked about less, good or bad until November then the Big 12. Two-thirds of the universities were chosen to participate after the regular season, with linemakers splitting the eight teams half and half as faves and dogs. The top clubs in the conference, Oklahoma and Missouri, are better then a field goal favorite and Kansas is a smallish underdog to Va. Tech. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are robust offensive machines, with defenses lacking. Just like all season, what Texas team will show up is anybodyâ€™s guess. Texas A&M is hard to figure with fill-in coach, but they can still move the ball and probably will play loose.

Record â€“ 22-5, 18-9 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS

Conference USA â€“ How this league has six bowl bids is crazy. Conference title game teams Tulsa and Central Florida are the only listed favorites among the C-USA teams. Even George Oâ€™Learyâ€™s champion Golden Knights are small favorites against a 7-5 team that has not been to a bowl in seven seasons. Could be disastrous year for this league.

Record â€“ 8-13, 9-12 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 1-3, 1-3 ATS

MAC â€“ The Mid-American Conference sends a trio of underdogs into action. The MAC may not win a game, however they might well post a winning record for backers since the three teams all had winning spread records and were a combined 21-13 ATS.

Record â€“ 3-8, 6-5 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 1-7, 3-5 ATS

Mountain West â€“ This was not considered an exceptional year for the Mountain West, yet four of their five teams playing in bowl games are a field goal or better favorites. A big reason for this is all five teams in bowl games finished in the top 25 in fewest points allowed in the country. This gives reason to believe a winning bowl season is in store for this conference.

Record â€“ 11-6, 8-9 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 1-5, 1-5 ATS

Pac-10 â€“ The Pacific 10 had six squads chosen and it could be a mixed bag for this conference. Oregon, UCLA and California all had high hopes and failed for various reasons. This could mean all three could struggle if they lack motivation. USC and Oregon State are both playing superb and deserving favorites. Arizona State just missed Fiesta Bowl berth and might be slightly disappointed for awhile. Donâ€™t expect it to last with positive Dennis Erickson as coach. Ugly number on the Sun Devils going to Holiday Bowl is four straight spread losses.

Record â€“ 14-3, 10-7 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 7-2, 7-2 ATS

SEC â€“ No wonder Ed Orgeron was fired at Mississippi, with only three SEC teams not going bowls from this conference. Not unexpectedly the league is the betting choice in six of the nine encounters. Why this conference might not be as dominate this year is only three of the bowl teams are in the top 20 in the country in defense, compared to typically having five or more. Georgia and Florida look to have match-up edges over competitors, while a case could be made many ways for the other seven squads.

Record â€“ 22-4, 17-9 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 8-4, 8-4 ATS

Sun Belt â€“ Florida Atlantic is surprise SBC champion with upset at Troy and will be REALLY excited to be in New Orleans Bowl after only four seasons at this level. FAU is slight favorite against Memphis who won five of last six to qualify.

Record â€“ 1-4, 2-3 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 0-4, 1-3 ATS

WAC â€“ Another banner year for the Western Athletic Conference, with Hawaii undefeated and in BCS bowl. Boise State oddly returns to Islands just a month after being in Honolulu and is a large favorite. Coach Pat Hill of Fresno State can play the underdog card again; this time against Georgia Tech. Nevada could fill a few seats in Albuquerque as the only true road team.

Record â€“ 6-5, 6-5 ATS - Record vs. other bowl teams 1-2, 2-1 ATS

Independent â€“Navy will open the festivities of the bowl season in friendly San Diego as the top rushing team in the country at 351.5 yards per game and 39.9 points a game. Utah faced somewhat similar Air Force attack and is third in the country in points allowed at 15.6.

posted by phantom

Dec. 19 2007 4:28pm
0 likes

11 SOUTHERN MISS over Cincinnati

Late Score Forecast:

SOUTHERN MISS 28 - Cincinnati 24

Papajohns.com Bowl

at Birmingham, Alabama

(Saturday, December 22, 2007)

Acknowledge Cincy firepower (35 ppg) and HC Kellyâ€™s extended pointspread success (26-8-3 vs. line since â€˜05

with CMU & Bearcats). And USMâ€™s erratic performance pattern certainly made it a bit tricky to pick the right spots

with Golden Eagles in â€˜07, with that inconsistency one of the reasons HC Jeff Bower was not-so-gently nudged

out the door after 17 seasons on the job. But Golden Eagles can be dangerous when both RB Fletcher (1431 YR)

and QB Young (healthy again) on field, and an expected kamikaze effort for the popular Bower (who will coach

this bowl) places USM firmly in the â€œliveâ€ category. Success of bigger bowl dogs (46-21 getting 7 or more since

2000!) also hard to ignore.

CTO Vol. 44 December 21-28, 2007 No. 4

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS

* - Denotes Home Team RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above

posted by phantom

Dec. 19 2007 4:29pm
0 likes

Dr Bob

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Here is the analysis of all Best Bets and strong opinions plus the two other games that are played this week. At the bottom I also have a list of my leans on the other games that I haven't written up yet (the analysis of those will be sent out next Monday or Tuesday)

I will send an email with the math model forecasts of all games written up in a few minutes.

3 Star Selection

***Connecticut 27 Wake Forest (-3.0) 21 (at Meineke Bowl - Charlotte) 10:00 AM Pacific, 29-Dec-07 Connecticut was destroyed by West Virginia 21-66 in their regular season finale, but that shouldnâ€™t take away from the great season that the Huskies had. U Conn was 9-3 for the season and their only losses by more than 1 point were to a very good Cincinnati team and to West Virginia. The other loss was by just 1 point to Virginia and the Huskies have wins against Louisville and South Florida to their credit. Wake Forest, meanwhile, didnâ€™t beat a team all season that is rated higher than Connecticut in my ratings. The best team that the Demon Deacons beat was Florida State, which is about the same as the Huskies, and Wakeâ€™s only other victories against better than average teams came at home in overtime against Maryland (when Maryland was a below average team with Steffy at quarterback) and at Vanderbilt.

The strength of this Huskies team is a defense that gave up 19 points or less in 9 of their 11 games with only good offensive teams Cincinnati (27 points) and West Virginia scoring 20 points or more against them. Connecticutâ€™s defensive weakness is stopping good running teams, but Wake Forest is not a good running team (4.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and Deacons are not likely to take advantage. Wake Forest isnâ€™t a good passing team either, as Riley Skinner averaged 5.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and heâ€™ll have a tough time throwing against a very good Connecticut pass defense that yielded just 5.0 yppp (to teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average defense) while picking off 22 passes. Wake Forest faced 4 better than average defensive teams this season (Boston College, Virginia, Clemson, and Vanderbilt) and the Demon Deacons averaged only 4.2 yppl in those 4 games while not topping 4.4 yppl in any of them. I donâ€™t see Wake Forest having much success against Connecticutâ€™s solid defense either.

Wake Forest also has a good defense, as the Demon Deacons allowed just 4.7 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. Connecticut is nothing special offensively, as the Huskies are average running the ball and slightly worse than average throwing it (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but quarterback Tyler Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions all season, which is why the Huskies are better than average in compensated scoring (27.8 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 25.5 points to an average team). My math model projects 4.7 yppl for both teams in this game, but Wake Forest hasnâ€™t gained more than 4.4 yppl against a better than average defense this season so I think the Huskies will do a better job of moving the football even though my math model projects the yardage as even. Connecticut has an edge in projected turnovers but Wake Forest has a special teams edge. Overall, my math model favors Wake Forest by Â½ a point, so the line value favors U Conn and I think the Huskies will win straight up.

Connecticut applies to a 37-8-1 ATS Bowl situation while Wake Forest applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation. Try not to overreact to Connecticutâ€™s last game (that 21-66 loss to West Virginia), as teams that lost their previous game by more than 38 points are actually 11-2 ATS in bowl games and teams that gave up 65 points or more in their final regular season game are 4-1 ATS in bowls. The fact that Connecticut gave up 66 points in one game and still allowed an average of just 18.6 points for the season tells you how good the Huskiesâ€™ defense was for most of the season.

Iâ€™ll take Connecticut in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-1.12 odds or less) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-1.13 odds or higher) to +1 point.

3 Star Selection

***Georgia Tech (-4.5) 34 Fresno St. 20 (at Humanitarian Bowl - Boise) 11:00 AM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 massive attrition and theyâ€™ve been horrible defensively ever since. Fresno lost defensive line stars Jason Roberts and Jason Shirley after 3 games each and then lost DE Ikenna Ike a couple of weeks later. Starting strong safety Lorne Bell has since been added to that list, so the Bulldogs are down 4 defensive starters since the start of the season. Fresno State has not been able to stop the run since losing Roberts and Shirley, as the Bulldogs allowed 6.1 yards per rushing play in their final 9 regular season games (to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp against an average defense). The Bulldogs are only slightly worse than average defending the pass, but Georgia Tech wonâ€™t need to pass the ball in this game with their strong offensive line going up against Fresnoâ€™s weak defensive front. Georgia Tech has two great running backs in Tashard Choice (1310 yards at 5.3 ypr) and Jonathan Dwyer (374 yards at 5.3 ypr) and the Yellow Jackets also give running quarterback Josh Nesbitt a few series each game and heâ€™s run for 302 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play. Taylor Bennett is nothing special at quarterback (0.2 yards per pass play worse than average) but he wonâ€™t be asked to do much in this game, as my math model projects 7.2 yards per rushing play for Georgia Tech against that horrible Fresno defensive front.

Fresno State put up pretty good offensive numbers (5.9 yards per play) but the Bulldogs faced a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team and they are at a disadvantage against a solid Georgia Tech defense (4.8 yppl allowed to 11 Division 1A opponents that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets are good against the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp) and they have one of the best pass rushes in the nation, averaging 3.9 sacks per game, so they are likely to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Fresno, which is a good indicator of pointspread success. In fact, Georgia Tech applies to a statistical match-up indicator that is 28-3-2 ATS in bowl games.

Fresno State does have an advantage in special teams with All-American kick returner A.J. Jefferson, but Georgia Tech has an All-American punter and their special teams are good too. My math model favors Georgia Tech by 8 Â½ points and the indicator favoring the Yellow Jackets makes this an even better play. Fresno State is 25-8 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents under coach Pat Hill, but theyâ€™ve never had a defense as bad as this yearâ€™s edition. Iâ€™ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 Â½ or -7 points.

2 Star Selection

**Navy 33 Utah (-8.0) 32 (at Poinsettia Bowl) 06:00 PM Pacific, 20-Dec-07 Iâ€™m not sure how fired up Utah will be for this game after losing their season finale to rival BYU, and the Utesâ€™ very good defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) isnâ€™t so great defending the run, which is what theyâ€™ll have to do in this game. Utah allowed a mediocre 4.8 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team and they allowed the Air Force option to ramble for 344 ground yards at 5.6 yprp in an early season loss. Navy has averaged 358 yards at 5.9 yprp on the ground this season and the running portion of their option attack should be as good as always in this game. Utah is amongst the best in the nation at defending the pass (4.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.4 yppp) but that does them little good against the Midshipmen.

Navyâ€™s defense was horrendous this season defending the pass (8.0 yppp allowed to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average team), but Utahâ€™s Brian Johnson is a below average passer (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and Navy is pretty decent at defending the run (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp). Johnson is likely to post good passing numbers and Utah will run the ball with success too, but Navy should be able to match the Utes on the scoreboard.

My math model takes match-ups into account and the math favors Utah by just 8 points in this game, so the line is fair. The reason for the play is based on technical factors. Navy applies to an 18-1-3 ATS subset of a 35-5-4 ATS bowl situation while also applying to a 40-9 ATS bowl game statistical match-up indicator. Navyâ€™s head coach Paul Johnson has moved onto a job at Georgia Tech, but longtime offensive assistant Ken Niumatalolo will keep the offensive system in place and you can be assured that Navy is working hard preparing for this game. Some teams have difficulty staying focused during the weeks of preparing for a bowl game but Military Academies are very disciplined and that seems to pay off in bowl season. In fact, Army, Navy and Air Force are a combined 20-6 ATS in all bowl games since 1976 (Navy is 6-2 ATS), including 10-2 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or more. Interim coaches are 13-6 ATS in bowl games in recent years, so the coaching change shouldnâ€™t affect the Middiesâ€™ preparation for this game either. Navy has a long history of playing well away from home, as the Midshipmen are 107-62-2 ATS in all games away from home the last 28 years, including 66-34 ATS as an underdog of more than 6 points. This game is strong enough technically to be at least a 3-Star Best Bet, but Iâ€™m uncomfortable making a big play on a team with such a bad pass defense, as Utah could easily decide to throw the ball 50 times to take advantage of that bad Navy secondary â€“ although I doubt that they will with Darrell Mack in the backfield to run the ball.

Iâ€™ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.

2 Star Selection

**UCLA 24 BYU (-6.0) 21 (at Las Vegas Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 22-Dec-07 Uclaâ€™s program might be in disarray with Karl Durrell being dismissed, but the Bruins are better than their 6-6 record would indicate. The Bruins played the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation this season and Iâ€™m positive that BYU would be 6-6 or no better than 7-5 if they had played UCLAâ€™s schedule. The Bruinsâ€™ 27-17 win over BYU in the Rose Bowl in September was actually a bad game for UCLA, who was out-gained 3.7 yards per play to 5.6 yppl by the Cougars that day. Iâ€™m sure BYU wants their revenge but they are unlikely to dominate the yardage as they did in that first meeting.

BYUâ€™s offense averaged 5.9 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl but that unit is at a disadvantage against a very good UCLA defense that yielded just 4.7 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team (after adjusting for playing Oregon without Dennis Dixon). BYUâ€™s defense is almost as good, allowing 4.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl, and the Bruinsâ€™ offense was 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season. However, starting quarterback Ben Olson will be back behind center and his passing numbers (5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback) are significantly better than the teamâ€™s passing rating of -0.3 yppp. The Bruinsâ€™ rushing attack has been 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average (3.8 yprp against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp to an average team) in 4 games since leading rusher Kahlil Bell (795 yards at 5.6 ypr in just over 7 games) was injured early in UCLAâ€™s 8th game against Washington State. UCLAâ€™s offense is just average without Bell and with Olson at quarterback, so theyâ€™re not going to have an easy time moving the ball. Thankfully, UCLAâ€™s brilliant special teams and their defensive advantage over BYUâ€™s offense will lead to better field position for the offense to work with.

My math model does call for BYU to have more total yards in this game but UCLAâ€™s special teams advantage is significant and my math favors the Bruins by 2 points in this game. While my math model is very complicated, even a simple math approach shows that this line is too high. BYU played a schedule that was 0.6 points worse than average and they won by an average of 12.4 points (so they would be +11.8 points against an average schedule). UCLA only out-scored their opponents by 0.1 points but the Bruins played a schedule that was 8.2 points tougher than average, so they are +8.3 points based purely on points. The difference in adjusted point differential is BYU by 3.6 points, but UCLAâ€™s offense is better with Ben Olson at quarterback, even with RB Bell out. UCLA also had 2 fumbles returned for TDâ€™s against them, which is random, so thatâ€™s 14 points random points (1.2 per game) that should be factored out of the adjusted points analysis, which leaves us with BYU by 2.4 points without factoring in the return of Olson for the Bruins. Even if the line should be BYU by 3 points then getting 6 points with UCLA is a 58.8% play.

The Bruins are reportedly eager to atone for their bad season and there is no doubt that they have better overall talent than BYU does. UCLA just had problems staying consistently motivated under Dorrell, as they only seemed to play well after a loss or when challenged by a good team. That motivation exists in this game, as the Bruins are off a season ending loss (but cover) against USC and theyâ€™re an underdog. The senior class at UCLA is 14-3 ATS in games after a loss and theyâ€™ve covered 10 straight games as an underdog (5-0 ATS this year). It is clear that UCLA is not getting enough credit for playing a Pac-10 schedule. Pac-10 teams are 181-124-3 ATS (59.3%) since 1980 as an underdog against non-conference opponents, including 77-34-2 ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points against teams that are .500 or better straight up entering the game. Pac 10 teams are also 32-17 ATS as underdogs or picks in bowl games, including 24-8 ATS against teams entering the bowl off a win in their regular season finale. UCLA certainly has the talent to play with any team (as their 10-0 dog record suggests) and theyâ€™d love to play well for interim coach and defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker, who is the playerâ€™s choice to be the next head coach.

Iâ€™ll take UCLA in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 or more.

2 Star Selection

**Clemson (-1.5) 26 Auburn 16 (at Chick-fil-A Bowl at Atlanta) 04:30 PM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 Both of these teams are strong defensively, but Clemson has the better offense, isnâ€™t as likely to turn the ball over and has better special teams. Clemson has averaged 5.7 yards per play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Tigers are just average offensively after adjusting for the loss of big play receiver Jacoby Ford, who missed the final 4 regular season games and is out for this game. Ford averaged 18.2 yards on his 17 receptions and the Tigers have nobody to replace those yards with the other top receivers combining to average only 11.8 yards per catch. Ford also ran for 172 yards on just 14 rushing plays and Clemsonâ€™s rushing attack goes from 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average to 0.2 yprp better than average if you take Fordâ€™s numbers out. Clemson will have trouble moving the ball against a very good Auburn defense that has yielded just 4.6 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A opponents who would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.

Auburnâ€™s offense doesnâ€™t figure to do much either, as the Tigers were held to 4.8 yppl or lower in 8 of their 11 games against 1A opposition and averaged only 4.8 yppl overall in those games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Clemsonâ€™s defense yielded only 4.5 yppl in their 11 division 1A games to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so they have a 1.2 yppl advantage over Auburnâ€™s offense. Unfortunately, starting linebackers Nick Watkins (leading tackler) and Tramaine Billie (3rd leading tackler) are likely to miss this game due to bad academic standing, which affects the defense a bit. Neither player made a lot of impact defensive plays, as they combined for just 2 sacks and 5 other tackles for loss, so I donâ€™t expect a major drop in performance from the Tigersâ€™ defense - but Iâ€™ll dock the Tigers 0.2 yppl for their loss.

With Watkins and Billie out for Clemson, Auburn has a slight edge from the line of scrimmage, but Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has thrown just 6 interceptions on 400 passes (1.5%) while Auburnâ€™s Brandon Cox has thrown 12 picks on only 277 passes (4.3%). In a defensive battle turnovers will probably make the difference and Clemson is likely to win that battle while also having a slight edge in special teams. Overall my math model favors Clemson by 2 points in this game and Clemson applies to a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation at -3 points or less while also applying to a 70-28-2 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator (also if they are -3 or less).

Iâ€™ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points (-112 odds or better) or less. Iâ€™ll also lean with the Under at 45 points or higher.

2 Star Selection

**Wisconsin 31 Tennessee (-3.0) 27 (at Outback Bowl at Tampa) 08:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 These two teams are very similar, as both teams are good offensively, mediocre on defense and have very good special teams. Tennessee averaged 5.7 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Erik Ainge improved a bit once the broken pinky on this throwing hand was completely healthy after the week 5 bye. That attack will be going up against a mediocre Wisconsin defense that allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I actually rate the Badgers as 0.2 yppl worse than average after losing starting CB Allen Lanford and DT Jason Chapman late in the season. But, star LB Elijah Hodge should be at full strength after missing most of the last two games with minor injuries.

Wisconsinâ€™s offense should also move the ball well. The Badgers averaged 5.8 yppl in the regular season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but Wisconsin was slightly worse (by 0.1 yppl) in the final 6 games without big play receiver Luke Swan, who will also miss this game. The loss of running back P.J. Hill will have no impact at all since Hillâ€™s compensated yards per rush (5.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.9 ypr to an average back) is the same as that of Zach Brown (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.8 ypr), who took over for Hill the final 3 games of the regular season. Lance Smith-Williams and his 6.2 ypr is also available, so the Badgers could be even better running the ball without Hill. Tennesseeâ€™s defense was only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl), so the Badgers have an advantage when they have the ball.

Neither quarterback is interception prone, having thrown 10 picks each, and my math model favors Tennessee by 3 points in this game - which is what the line is. The reason for the play on Wisconsin is a 16-0 ATS subset of a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation and a 32-7 ATS bowl angle that both favor Wisconsin. The Badgers played below expectations this season (4-7 ATS) but they were still good enough to make it to one of the New Yearâ€™s Bowl games. Good teams that under-performed in the regular season tend to improve during the month-plus of bowl preparation, as teams playing in major bowl games (the 5 BCS Bowls plus the other New Yearâ€™s Day Bowls â€“ the Outback, Cotton, Citrus, and Gator) are 18-8 ATS as underdogs if they had a losing pointspread record in the regular season when facing a team that has a winning pointspread mark (12-4 ATS against teams that were 3 games or more above .500 ATS, as the Vols were).

Iâ€™ll play this game on the basis of the strong technical indicators and Iâ€™ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-115 odds or less) or more.

2 Star Selection

**Hawaii 32 Georgia (-8.5) 31 (at Sugar Bowl) 05:30 PM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Unbeaten Hawaii had some close calls against a few bad teams, but the Warriors raised their level of play against the good teams that they faced and they have a pretty good shot at an outright upset in this game. Hawaii played their toughest 4 opponents in their final 4 games of the year, facing Bowl teams Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State and Pac-10 rep Washington, who would have been a bowl team if they didnâ€™t face the toughest schedule in the nation. In those 4 games the Warriors averaged 7.5 yards per play while allowing only 5.3 yppl. Those are very impressive numbers considering that those 4 opponents would combine to average 5.9 yppl and allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. For the season Hawaiiâ€™s potent attack was 1.5 yppl better than average (7.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack), but they were 2.2 yppl better than average in those final 4 games when challenged by decent teams. Hawaii has the type of offense that can move the ball even on good defensive teams, so they are relatively better when facing good defenses than they are against bad defensive teams since the level of opposing defense doesnâ€™t have as much impact on Hawaiiâ€™s attack. That has certainly been the case with Colt Brennan, who was 1.7 yards per pass play better than average for the season (8.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) but was 2.1 yppp better than average against the 6 mediocre or better than average pass defenses he faced (8.1 yppp against Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Fresno, Boise and Washington â€“ who would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Georgia has a very good pass defense that yielded just 5.5 yppp in 11 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average team. Colt Brennan is not fazed by good defensive teams, as he threw for nearly 500 yards and averaged 8.8 yppp against Boise State â€“ the best pass defense he faced this season. Boise, at 0.5 yppp better than average defending the pass, is not quite as good as Georgiaâ€™s pass defense (the Bulldogs are 0.9 yppp better than average), but Brennan faced some very good pass defenses last season and thrived. Brennan threw for 9.9 yppp against the 2006 unbeaten Boise State team that was 0.8 yppp better than average against the pass and he averaged 8.6 yppp combined last season in games against the good pass defenses of Alabama, Boise State, Oregon State and Arizona State. Those teams would have combined to allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback, which is pretty close to how good Georgiaâ€™s defense is this year. That included Brennanâ€™s 542 yards at 11.8 yppp in the bowl game against an Arizona State defense that was 0.6 yppp better than average. My math model projects 6.9 yppp for Brennan in this game but that number would be 7.4 yppp based on his habit of playing relatively better against better defensive teams. Hawaii has scored 28 points or more in 25 consecutive games and the Warriors are likely to top 30 points in this game.

What is often overlooked is how good Hawaiiâ€™s defense has been this season. The Warriors didnâ€™t have to flex their defensive muscle too often, as they played a lot of bad offensive teams, but that defense played great when challenged by good offensive teams in their final 3 games. The only better than average offensive teams that Hawaii faced were Nevada, Boise State and Washington, who would combine to average 6.0 yards per play against an average defensive team. The Warriors finished the season against those 3 good offensive teams and held them to a combined 5.2 yppl. For the season Hawaii yielded 5.0 yppl in 10 games against Division 1A opposition that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Georgiaâ€™s offense was only 0.6 yppl better than average in their 11 games against D-1A competition with Matt Stafford in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl), so the Bulldogs only have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Hawaiiâ€™s defense and I actually think the Warriorsâ€™ stop unit is just as good as Georgiaâ€™s offense when they are forced to play at fully intensity â€“ as they will be in this game.

My math model favors Georgia by only 5 points even with a 2.2 points edge for projected turnovers and a 3.9 points advantage for the Bulldogs in special teams and Hawaii is 50/50 to win this game straight up if they play this game at the level theyâ€™ve played against other good teams that theyâ€™ve faced. This game is similar to the situation that unbeaten WAC champion Boise State was in last season as a 7 point underdog to Oklahoma (a 43-42 winner). While Hawaii played a pretty easy schedule they did play their best against the best teams they faced and they have the confidence that they can beat anyone. Teams with 1 loss or fewer are 22-6 ATS in bowl games as underdogs of 7 points or more (6- 0 ATS the last 4 years), so getting a touchdown or more with a team that is not used to losing has been a pretty good bet. I realize that Georgia played their best ball down the stretch, but they arenâ€™t likely to continue to play at such a high level after having more than a month off. In fact, teams that finished the regular season by covering 3 or more consecutive games are just 40% ATS in bowl games since 1980 (51-76-2 ATS) when not facing a team also on a 3 game spread win streak.

Iâ€™ll take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.

Best Bet UNDER

**UNDER - Central Florida (-3.0) 27 Mississippi St. 24 (at Liberty Bowl - Memphis) 01:30 PM Pacific, 29-Dec-07 The side on this game is tough to pick as there are situations favoring both sides and my math model favors UCF by 3 points, which is what the line is. However, the Under looks like a good play. Central Florida averaged 6.0 yards per play and 38.4 points in the regular season but their offense isnâ€™t really that much better than average since they accumulated those numbers against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl and 35.6 points to an average team. Mississippi Stateâ€™s defense yielded only 5.1 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. Mississippi Stateâ€™s defense actually has a pretty significant advantage in this game and the Golden Knights built up their offensive numbers against bad defensive teams while struggling against mediocre or good stop units. UCF averaged only 4.4 yppl in 4 games against average or better defensive teams (NC State, Texas, South Florida, and Southern Miss), who would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average team.

The defense has the advantage when Miss State has the ball too, as the Bulldogs have averaged only 4.5 yppl in their last 6 games with freshman Wesley Carroll at quarterback - against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team. Those numbers are actually better than Miss Stateâ€™s -0.7 yppl full season rating, as they were even worse offensively before Carroll took over. Central Florida has a solid defense that yielded just 5.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so Miss State will have trouble moving the ball as well.

With neither team expected to move the ball at a better than average rate it is not likely that this game is higher scoring than the national average of 54.4 total points. Central Floridaâ€™s special teams do add offense as they are great in returns and bad in coverage, but my math model predicts just 52 Â½ points after factoring in special teams. If the total should be 52 Â½ points then there is a 61.5% chance of going Under the current total of 58 Â½ points (and 60.4% chance of going Under 58 points).

Iâ€™ll pass on the side, but Iâ€™ll go UNDER 58 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and consider the Under a Strong Opinion from 56 to 57 Â½ points.

Strong Opinion

Boise St. (-10.5) 41 East Carolina 25 (at Hawaii Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 23-Dec-07 Boise State lost to the only two better than average teams that they played this year, dropping road games to Washington and Hawaii, but the Broncos won their other 9 games against Division 1A teams by an average score of 47-19 while winning 8 of those 9 games by double-digit margins. East Carolina may be 7-5, but donâ€™t mistake the Pirates for a better than average team. East Carolina out-scored their opponents by an average of 0.4 points per game while playing a schedule that was 4.5 points worse than average. The Pirates do have one quality win, a 52-38 home win over CUSA champ Central Florida, but it took a +5 in turnover margin to win that game.

The Pirates are decent offensively, averaging 5.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack, and that unit should move the ball at a decent rate against a Boise State defense that was 0.1 yppl better than average in 11 games against Division 1A opponents (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). Itâ€™s the other side of the ball where the Pirates have their problems and where theyâ€™ll be overmatched in this game. East Carolina allowed 5.7 yppl this season to a collection of teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. That defense doesnâ€™t have much of a chance to stop a balanced Boise State attack that averaged 6.3 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Boise State feasted on worse than average defensive teams and should score a good number of points in this game.

Enhancing Boiseâ€™s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game is their great special teams, which once against ranks among the best in the nation and consistently supplies the Broncos with good field position while pinning their opponents deep in their end of the field. A team that out-gains their opponents 6.3 yppl to 5.0 yppl, as Boise did in their 11 games against 1A competition would normally out-score their opponents by about 12 points per game, but Boise State out-scored their 11 Division 1A opponents by 20.3 points per game in part because of their incredible special teams. East Carolina has mediocre special teams and that should be the difference between a competitive game and a potential blowout.

My math model favors Boise State by 17 points in this game but Iâ€™ll resist making Boise State a Best Bet because East Carolina is 15-4 ATS as an underdog under coach Skip Holtz (although 0-1 as a Bowl underdog). My math model also predicts a total of 65.3 points and the Under looks like a decent play too. I did my profile analysis on this game, which basically projects scores based on how well each team has played against teams with similar statistical characteristics (using regression analysis on each facet of the opponentâ€™s stats â€“ run offense, pass defense, etc). The profile analysis of Boise State suggests that theyâ€™d total 66 points against a team with East Carolinaâ€™s level of offense and defense while the profile analysis on ECU projects a total of 63 total points against a team with Boise Stateâ€™s statistical profile. Either way, the games is likely to go under the 70 point total.

Iâ€™ll consider Boise State a Strong Opinion at -11 points or less and Iâ€™ll lean with the Under at 69 points or higher.

Strong Opinion

Florida (-10.0) 37 Michigan 22 (at Capital One Bowl - Orlando) 10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Florida is the best team in the nation despite their 3 losses and the Gators spread attack should be no match for a Michigan team that was torched by the similar spread offenses of Appalachian State and Oregon early in the season. Floridaâ€™s offense is easily the best in the nation, as the Gators averaged 210 yards on the ground at 5.8 yards per rushing play while Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow averaged a ridiculous 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, Florida averaged a stunning 7.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while averaging 5.5 yppl or more against every team they faced. Michiganâ€™s defensive numbers are good for the season, as the Wolverines yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. However, spread offenses with good running quarterbacks (i.e. Appalachian State and Oregon) gave the Wolverines trouble as Appalachian averaged 5.9 yppl and scored 34 points while Oregon racked up 610 total yards at 8.1 yppl and had 32 points at the half before calling off the dogs in a 39-7 victory at Ann Arbor. Iâ€™m sure Michigan will try to devise ways to defend the spread better than they did in those two games, but my math model projects 6.9 yppl and 38 points for Florida in this game if Michigan plays as well defensively as they did overall this season.

Michiganâ€™s offense just isnâ€™t good enough to keep up, as the Wolverines were 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Michigan was 0.1 yppl worse than average with running back Mike Hart, quarterback Chad Henne, and WR Mario Manningham all playing, but thatâ€™s still not good enough. Running against Florida is not easy (the Gators allowed just 3.8 yprp to teams that would average 4.9 yprp aginst an average team), but Henne and Manningham should have pretty good success against a sub-par Gatorsâ€™ pass defense that allowed 6.2 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team. Michigan will probably be too conservative to take advantage of the only match-up that may work for them in this game and my math model projects 346 total yards at 5.1 yppl if they throw the ball a bit more than they run it instead of running it 53% of the time as they normally do.

In addition to dominating this game in total yards the Gators also have much better special teams than Michigan does and my math model favors Florida by 17 points. Iâ€™d like to play Florida here but the Gators apply to a negative 36-67-1 ATS Bowl angle that will keep me off of this game as a Best Bet. Iâ€™ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less and Iâ€™ll lean with the Gators if the line goes higher than 10 points.

Other Games

Florida Atl. (-2.5) 36 Memphis 31 (at New Orleans Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 21-Dec-07 Despite being favored, Florida Atlantic isnâ€™t getting enough respect in this game because they reside in the lowly Sun Belt Conference. However, Conference USA, from which Memphis hails, was just as bad as the Sun Belt this season and Memphis is a horrible team whose best win came against a Southern Miss team that is about 5 points worse than an average Division 1A team. Memphisâ€™ 7 wins have come against teams that are on average 17 Â½ points worse than an average team. Florida Atlantic got to this bowl game by beating a good Troy State team that is a couple of points better than an average Division 1A team and the Owls played a schedule that was 9 points tougher than what Memphis played (and each team was 7-5). The Owls are led by sophomore star quarterback Rusty Smith, who averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Smith also threw just 8 interceptions on 447 passes (1.8%). Overall, Florida Atlantic is only 0.1 yards per play worse than an average Division 1A team on the offensive side of the ball with Smith in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). That unit will have no trouble scoring against a horrible Memphis defense that gave up 6.2 yppl this season to a schedule of bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Memphis rates the same as Florida Atlantic on the offense side of the ball, as the Tigers have averaged 5.9 yppl with Martin Hankins behind center â€“ against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. Hankins, however, is more turnover prone than his counterpart, as heâ€™s thrown picks on 3.1% of his passes this season. The difference in this game is defense â€“ Memphis has a horrible defense and Florida Atlantic has a decent defense. The Owls have yielded a respectable 5.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team, so they are 1.3 yppl better than the Tigersâ€™ stop unit.

My math model projects Florida Atlantic to out-gain Memphis 504 yards to 402 yards in this game while also having an advantage in predicted turnovers. The Owls do have horrible special teams, but their special teams are only 1.6 points worse than the Tigers poor special teams units. Overall the math model favors Florida Atlantic by 10 points and Iâ€™d love to play the Owls in this game. Unfortunately, Florida Atlantic applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation and a 1-18 ATS bowl situation and those angles will keep me from playing the Owls.

Iâ€™ll still lean with Florida Atlantic at -3 points or less.

New Mexico (-2.5) 31 Nevada 26 (at New Mexico Bowl) 01:30 PM Pacific, 22-Dec-07 Nevada has an exciting future superstar at quarterback in Colin Kaepernick but New Mexico is a better overall team and the Lobos are playing in their home stadium. That didnâ€™t help New Mexico last season when they lost 12-20 to San Jose State in this same Bowl game but the Lobos may use that defeat as motivation for this game. The strength of New Mexicoâ€™s team is a defense that yielded just 4.7 yards per play this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and that unit has performed especially well since giving up 6.6 yppl in week 2 and week 3 to New Mexico State and Arizona. The Lobos gave up just 4.4 yppl in their final 8 games (to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), including limiting good offensive teams BYU, San Diego State, and Air Force (who would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team) to just 4.5 yppl combined while not allowing more than 4.8 yppl to any of those good offensive teams. Nevada is a very good offensive team, as the Wolf Pack have averaged 6.7 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. That unit got better when starting quarterback Nick Graziano was injured against Fresno State in week 6, which led to the emergence of freshman star Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick is has averaged 8.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB) while throwing 19 touchdown passes against just 3 interceptions. Kaepernick has also added 649 yards on 79 running plays and he teams with RB Luke Lippincott (1380 yards at 5.4 ypr) to give Nevada a balanced attack. Nevada has been 1.1 yppl better than average offensively with Kaepernick at quarterback, which is the same rating as New Mexicoâ€™s defense has had in their last 8 games (although the Lobosâ€™ defense is 0.7 yppl better than average for the season because of poor play early in the season).

The battle between New Mexicoâ€™s offense and Nevadaâ€™s defense is also pretty close, as the Lobos have been 0.6 yppl worse than average this season (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while Nevadaâ€™s defense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl). New Mexico quarterback Donovan Porterie posted just average passing numbers this season (6.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp), but he should be able to throw the ball pretty well in this game and Porterie also doesnâ€™t get intercepted much (8 times on 382 passes). New Mexico's top running back Rodney Ferguson was just ruled ineligible for this game due to academics and there is a big drop-off between his 4.0 ypr and Paul Baker's 3.4 ypr. New Mexico's offense is 0.8 yppl worse than average without Ferguson. The real difference in this game is special teams, as Nevada has horrible special teams while New Mexicoâ€™s special teams are better than average with one of the best kickers in the nation in John Sullivan, who has made 26 of 29 field goals this season â€“ which could come in handy in what is expected to be a tight game.

My math model favors New Mexico by 5 1/2 points on their home field without Ferguson and there are no situations favoring either side in this game, although teams playing on their home field are 13-5 ATS in bowl games when not favored by 7 points or more. New Mexico failed to follow that trend last season, but they are likely to cover this game.

Iâ€™ll lean with New Mexico. Leans on other games

Cincinnati (-11) vs Southern Miss: Math favors Cincy but Bowl angles favor Southern Miss. No Opinion.

Purdue (-8 Â½) vs Central Michigan: Math favors Purdue by 10 points but situation slightly favors Central Michigan. Tough call, but Iâ€™ll lean slightly with Purdue.

Texas (-2 Â½) vs Arizona State: I lean with Arizona State.

Boston College (-3 Â½) vs Michigan State: I lean slightly with Michigan State at +3 or more.

Tcu (-3 Â½) vs Houston: The bowl situation favor Houston, but the math favors TCU pretty significantly and TCU is certainly the side I like.

Oregon State (-5) vs Maryland: Iâ€™ll probably pick Oregon State by 4 points, so Iâ€™ll lean slightly with Maryland.

Penn State (-5 Â½) vs Texas A&M: I lean slightly with Penn State.

Alabama (-3 Â½) vs Colorado: I like Colorado plus the points.

Cal (-3 Â½) vs Air Force: I lean slightly with Cal.

South Florida (-6 Â½) vs Oregon: I lean with Oregon.

Kentucky (-3) vs Florida State: No Opinion at this time with Florida State on the verge of suspensions being handed out. At this point Iâ€™d pick Kentucky by 3 points.

Oklahoma State (-4) vs Indiana: I lean with Oklahoma State.

Missouri (-3) vs Arkansas: My math favors Arkansas and the angles favor Missouri. Iâ€™ll call for Missouri by 3 points.

Texas Tech (-6) vs Virginia: I lean slightly with Texas Tech.

USC (-13 Â½) vs Illinois: I lean slightly with Illinois.

Oklahoma (-7 Â½) vs West Virginia: Tough call without knowing how West Virginia will react to their coach leaving them, but the value is certainly on West Virginia if they show up. Iâ€™ll lean with West Virginia and would have considered them for a Strong Opinion had coach Rodriguez not left for the Michigan job.

Virginia Tech (-3 Â½) vs Kansas: I like Kansas plus the points.

Rutgers (-10) vs Ball State: Math favors Rutgers pretty significantly, but situations are strongly in favor of Ball State. At this point Iâ€™ll pick Rutgers by 10 and thus have no opinion.

Tulsa (-4 Â½) vs Bowling Green: I lean with Tulsa.

LSU (-4) vs Ohio State: Not sure which way Iâ€™ll go in this game yet, but Iâ€™m leaning with Ohio State at this point.

posted by phantom

Dec. 19 2007 4:29pm
0 likes

ANDY ISKOE COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS

The selections are presented in chronological order rather than by strength of selection. The technical selections are based more on generic/situational/statistical past performances rather than team-specific histories which may result in some of the following Trends & Tendencies selections to differ from those we make in the more comprehensive analysis provided in our College & Pro Football Newsletter.

Dec 20 Poinsettia Bowl 3 Star Navy over Utah

Dec 21 New Orleans Bowl 5 Star Memphis over Florida Atlantic

Dec 22 Papa-John's.com Bowl 1 Star Southern Miss over Cincinnati

Dec 22 New Mexico Bowl 2 Star Nevada Reno over NEW MEXICO

Dec 22 Las Vegas Bowl 5 Star Byu over Ucla

Dec 23 Hawaii Bowl 4 Star Boise State over East Carolina

Dec 26 Motor City Bowl 3 Star CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Purdue

Dec 27 Holiday Bowl 4 Star Arizona State over Texas

Dec 28 Champs Sports Bowl 5 Star Michigan State over Boston College

Dec 28 Texas Bowl 4 Star HOUSTON over Tcu

Dec 28 Emerald Bowl 3 Star Oregon State over Maryland

Dec 29 Meinke Car Care Bowl 5 Star Connecticut over WAKE FOREST

Dec 29 Liberty Bowl 5 Star Central Florida over Mississippi State

Dec 29 Alamo Bowl 2 Star TEXAS A&M over Penn State

Dec 30 Independence Bowl 1 Star Colorado over Alabama

Dec 31 Armed Forces Bowl 5 Star Air Force over California

Dec 31 Sun Bowl 5 Star Oregon over South Florida

Dec 31 Humanitarian Bowl No Selection Fresno State vs Georgia Tech

Dec 31 Music City Bowl No Selection Florida State vs Kentucky

Dec 31 Insight Bowl 1 Star Indiana over Oklahoma State

Dec 31 Chick-Fil-A Bowl 4 Star Clemson over Auburn

Jan 1 Outback Bowl 5 Star Wisconsin over Tennessee

Jan 1 Cotton Bowl 4 Star Arkansas over Missouri

Jan 1 Capital One Bowl 2 Star FLORIDA over Michigan

Jan 1 Gator Bowl 2 Star Virginia over Texas Tech

Jan 1 Rose Bowl 3 Star Illinois over USC

Jan 1 Sugar Bowl 2 Star Hawaii over Georgia

Jan 2 Fiesta Bowl 5 Star West Virginia over Oklahoma

Jan 3 Orange Bowl 5 Star Kansas over Virginia Tech

Jan 5 International Bowl 2 Star Ball State over Rutgers

Jan 6 GMAC Bowl 3 Star Bowling Green vs Tulsa

Jan 7

BCS Championship Game 5 Star Ohio State over LSU

posted by phantom

Dec. 19 2007 4:30pm
0 likes

vegas hotsheet

Thursday, December 20th

POINSETTIA BOWL - 9:00pm ET ESPN

303 Navy 30

304 Utah 34

NAVY +8Â½

FREE PICK: UNDER 66

Friday, December 21st

NEW ORLEANS BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN2

305 Florida Atlantic 35

306 Memphis 38

MEMPHIS +3

FREE PICK: OVER 67

Saturday, December 22nd

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL - 1:00pm ET ESPN2

309 Southern Miss 20

310 Cincinnati 39

CINCINNATI -11

NEW MEXICO BOWL - 4:30pm ET ESPN

311 Nevada 31

312 New Mexico 23

NEVADA +3

LAS VEGAS BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN

313 UCLA 24

314 BYU 21

UCLA +6Â½

FREE PICK: Nevada/New Mexico :: UNDER 60

Sunday, December 23rd

HAWAII BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN

341 E Carolina 30

342 Boise St 45

BOISE ST -10Â½

FREE PICK: OVER 70

Wednesday, December 26th

MOTOR CITY BOWL - 7:30pm ET ESPN

401 C Michigan 20

402 Purdue 37

PURDUE -8Â½

FREE PICK: UNDER 71Â½

Thursday, December 27th

HOLIDAY BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN

403 Texas 38

404 Arizona 20

TEXAS -2Â½

FREE PICK: UNDER 62

Friday, December 28th

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL - 5:00pm ET ESPN

405 Michigan St 17

406 Boston College 30

BOSTON COL -3Â½

TEXAS BOWL - 8:00pm ET NFLN

407 TCU 37

408 Houston 27

TCU -3Â½

EMERALD BOWL - 8:30pm ET ESPN

409 Maryland 20

410 Oregon St 32

OREGON ST -5

FREE PICK: Michigan St/Boston College :: UNDER 56

Saturday, December 29th

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL - 1:00pm ET ESPN

413 Connecticut 29

414 Wake Forest 17

UCONN +3

LIBERTY BOWL - 4:30pm ET ESPN

415 C Florida 34

416 Mississippi St 17

UCF -3

ALAMO BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN

417 Penn St 34

418 Texas A&M 13

PENN ST -5Â½

FREE PICK: UCF/Mississippi St :: UNDER 58Â½

Sunday, December 30th

INDEPENDENCE BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN

449 Colorado 35

450 Alabama 22

COLORADO +3Â½

FREE PICK: OVER 51

Monday, December 31st

ARMED FORCES BOWL - 12:30pm ET ESPN

451 Air Force 27

452 California 38

CAL -3Â½

SUN BOWL - 2:00pm ET CBS

453 Oregon 13

454 S Florida 27

S FLORIDA -6Â½

HUMANITARIAN BOWL - 2:00pm ET ESPN2

455 Fresno St 31

456 Georgia Tech 28

FRESNO ST +4Â½

MUSIC CITY BOWL - 4:00pm ET ESPN

457 Florida St 23

458 Kentucky 16

FLORIDA ST +3Â½

INSIGHT BOWL - 5:30pm ET NFLN

459 Indiana 35

460 Oklahoma St 31

INDIANA +4

PEACH BOWL - 7:30pm ET ESPN

461 Auburn 17

462 Clemson 21

CLEMSON -2

FREE PICK: Florida St/Kentucky :: UNDER 56Â½

Tuesday, January 1st

OUTBACK BOWL - 11:00am ET ESPN

463 Wisconsin 34

464 Tennessee 35

WISCONSIN +3Â½

COTTON BOWL - 11:30am ET FOX

465 Arkansas 27

466 Missouri 48

MISSOURI -3

CAPITAL ONE BOWL - 1:00pm ET ABC

467 Michigan 27

468 Florida 29

MICHIGAN +10

GATOR BOWL - 1:00pm ET CBS

469 Texas Tech 48

470 Virginia 28

TEXAS TECH -6

ROSE BOWL - 5:00pm ET ABC

471 Illinois 17

472 USC 38

USC -13Â½

SUGAR BOWL - 8:30pm ET FOX

473 Hawaii 42

474 Georgia 41

HAWAII +9

FREE PICK: Texas Tech/Virginia :: OVER 59

Wednesday, January 2nd

FIESTA BOWL - 8:00pm ET FOX

475 W Virginia 20

476 Oklahoma 38

OKLAHOMA -7Â½

FREE PICK: UNDER 63

Thursday, January 3rd

ORANGE BOWL - 8:00pm ET FOX

477 Kansas 33

478 Virginia Tech 30

KANSAS +3Â½

FREE PICK: OVER 53

Saturday, January 5th

INTERNATIONAL BOWL - 12:05pm ET ESPN2

483 Ball St 20

484 Rutgers 49

RUTGERS -10

FREE PICK: OVER 60Â½

Sunday, January 6th

GMAC BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN

489 Bowling Green 31

490 Tulsa 40

TULSA -4Â½

FREE PICK: UNDER 76

Monday, January 7th

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP - 8:00pm ET FOX

491 Ohio St 16

492 LSU 31

LSU -4

FREE PICK: UNDER 49Â½

posted by phantom

Dec. 19 2007 4:31pm
0 likes

Wild Bill

Clemson -2 (1 unit) Tigers QB and overall defense should be the difference

Fresno State + 4 (1 unit) Bulldogs seem to play a great underdog role.

California -3 (1 unit) Receivers for Bears should get open vs Flyboys.

Central Florida -3 (1 unit) Under-rated club that wants to make a mark.

Arizona State +2 (3 units) Sun Devils primed to win straight up vs banged up Horns.

Cincinnati U -11 (5 units) Bearcats undervalued and should win by 19.

Kansas + 3 (1 unit) Still some value here, Offensively Jayhawks better on paper.

Michigan + 9 1/2 (2 units) Wolverines in a state of flux, except they play vs Mr. Heisman-Jinx

who's coming off a slightly broken hand. Wolverine Seniors want this!

Wisconsin + 3 (1 unit) Badgers undervalued, RB should be healthy to beat over-rated Vols

Indiana + 3 1/2 (2 units) Okie State won't be able to keep up with receiver corps for Hoosiers

Oregon + 6 1/2 (4 units) Yep, Ducks down to 4th or 5th string, however Dog role hard to pass

Penn State -5 1/2 (1 unit) A&M with new HC, Penn State seniors looking to send Joe out a winner

Boston College -3 1/2 (1 unit) I may upgrade this play, Senior QB, strong bowl record as well.

New Mexico -3 (1 unit) Basically a home game vs a club still in transition in Nevada

Ohio State + 4 (5 units) LSU who? Miles downplaying and overvalued coach to me. He's not been anywhere for longer than 4 years to make his mark with recruits. Buckeyes QB shines.

Illinois + 13 1/2 (3 units) Zook looking to win this one straight up and Illini quite capable.

Missouri -3 (3 units) Stronger offense vs a club with acting HC in Herring, not enough. Maclin the difference with special teams.

Over 60 1/2 Ball State-Rutgers (1 unit) Can be a shoot out.

Over 64 1/2 Oklahoma-WV (1 unit) WV defense needs to step up, however both clubs can run and pass.

Over 50 1/2 Illini-USC (5 units) QB Williams for Illini can give USC fits.

Over 54 1/2 GT- Fresno State (1 unit) Fresno offensively can put holes in GT with acting HC at helm

Under 65 1/2 Utah-Navy (1 unit) Utah very good Bowl record vs club with new HC. Defense for Utes will be difference

Over 50 Ohio St-LSU (2 units) Big Back for Buckeyes and specialists could have big days

Over 54 Kansas-Va Tech (1 unit) Jayhawks will come out gunning vs Tech who can score too

Over 69 Hawaii-Georgia (1 unit) QB for Hawaii could riddle Dawg secondary, QB for Dawgs also could have fun vs Rainbows.

Over 69 Okla St- Indiana (2 units) There is no defense for either club.

BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Over 70 1/2 East Carolina-Boise St (10 units) ECU on the road can't stop anyone and Boise knows this field well and also very potent offense. Boise 49 ECU

posted by phantom

Dec. 19 2007 4:31pm
0 likes

HQ Newsletter Bowl Games;

5* C MICHIGAN (+) over PURDUE

3* MICHIGAN (+) over FLORIDA

3*ILLINOIS (+) over USC

3* BALL ST (+) over RUTGERS

HQ UNDERDOG PLAY

Virginia(+) over Texas Tech

HQReport Total Recall OVER/UNDER

Free Play Indiania vs Oklahoma St "Play OVER"

A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems)

Free Play Tennessee over Wisconsin

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:11pm
0 likes

Special K GOY

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oklahoma

__________________

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:12pm
0 likes

4 Purdue -7 1/2

Hoops

4 Dallas +3

4 Over 188 Boston

ATS FINANCIAL

3 Under 72 Purd

Hoops

4 Denver -8

3 New Orleans -2 1/2

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:25pm
0 likes

THE MAX- Dave Fobare______Central Michigan vs. Purdue BEST BET______________Pass

Drew Gordon_______________________400,000♦_____________ ________________Purdue

Charlies Sports Members Section________30*______________________________Pu rdue-8

POINTWISE 0-6 SO FAR__________________ 5___________Purdue 41 - Central Michigan 27

Discount Sports Picks___________________5*_______________Purdue -8 over C. Michigan

Pay Picks_____________________________5*______________ _Purdue -7.5 buy the hook

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS 6-0 SO FAR 4★___________Purdue 48 Central Michigan 31

SUNSHINE FORECAST_____________1 star________________Purdue 46 Central Michigan 27

ACE ACE . ALLEN EASTMEN 1-5 SO FAR_______$100______________Purdue Boilermakers -8

Norm Hitzges___________________Double Play____________Purdue -8 vs Central Michigan

Frank Rosenrat_______________________SB_________________ _________Purdue -7.5

DR BOB 4-2 SO FAR__________OPINION ONLY________________________Purdue -8 Â½

THE GOLD SHEET _________________________________Purdue 43 â€“ Central Michingan 27

vegas hotsheet ( 4-5 SO FAR)_________________________________________Purdu e -8Â½

JOHN CAMBELL FROM COVERS 1-5 SO FAR_______________________________ Purdue -9

MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: 5-1 SO FAR_______________________Purdue by 3

LVTR __________________________________________________ _____Purdue -7 Buy Hook

Tom Striker's CFB Motor City Mauling __________________________________ Purdue (-

ARMVIN SPORTS____________________________________________ _________Purdue -8

L. Ness' Las Vegas Insider___________________________________________ ______Purdue

The Platinum Sheet_____________________________________Purdue 38, C Michigan 27

Gamblers World TIP OF THE DAY_____________________________Purdue Boilermakers -9

Johnny Guild___________________________________________Pu rdue Boilermakers (7-5)

FoxSheets/*******______________******* Forecaster_________Purdue 38, C Michigan 27

WHATIF SPORTS SIMULATIONS BOWLS (3-3)__________Purdue 34 - Central Michigan 26

Mighty ! Quinn: 9-27 last 36_________________________________________Purdue-8 1/2

HQ Newsletter Bowl Games______________5*_______________C Michigan (+) over Purdue

Arthur Ralph_________________900 Best Bet________________________Central Michigan

THEERODFATHER OF SPORTS_________15 UNITS_________________________C Mich+8

Kodiak______________________________10____________ __________________CMU +8'

Winners Edge_______________________2 units________________________C. Michigan +8

SPORTS MEMO______________________________________________ ___ Central Michigan

WINNING POINTS_____________________________ ____Purdue over Central Michigan by 4

ANDY ISKOE COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS ( 2-4 SO FAR )__Central Michigan over Purdue

TEDDY COVERS____________________________________________ _Central Michigan +8

ASA Newsletter___________________________________Centr al Michigan(+9) over Purdue

MR A's_______________________________________________ ____Central Michigan + 8.5

DAVID PAGE______________________________________________ _Central Michigan +7.5

Ben Burns_____________Motor City Bowl MASSACRE (3-0 L3, 15-7 L22) Central Michigan

Betting Prophets__________________________________________ _ Central Michigan +8

Atslocks.com 2-1 so far_______________________________________Central Michigan +8

Cappers Access_______________________comp_________________ _________C. Michigan

Charlies Sports Members Section_________500*_____________________________ Over 71'

Insider Sports Report______________4*_____C. Michigan/Purdue Over 71 Range 69.5 to 73

Frank Rosenrat_______________________SB_________________ ____________Over 70.5

LT Lock 0-2 so far_______________________________________________ __Over Purdue

Atslocks.com 2-1 so far______________comp_______________over 71 Central Mich/Purdue

Silvas Sports __________________________________________________ C.Mich/Pur u 71

Vegas hotsheet ( 4-5 SO FAR)________________comp____________________Under 71Â½

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:30pm
0 likes

Atslocks.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Central Michigan +8 2-1 record so far in bowls.

comp play over 71 Central Mich/Purdue

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:30pm
0 likes

FoxSheets/ *******

****Motor City Bowl****

OVERVIEW: Central Michigan has the privilege of representing the MAC in the Motor City Bowl for the second straight season, but will be facing a much higher caliber opponent this time around in Purdue. It will be a big step up from the â€™06 matchup vs. Sun Belt foe MTSU, a game the Chippewas won easily, 31-14. This will actually be the second time theyâ€™ve faced the Boilermakers this season, and CMU will be looking for a different result from the 45-22 pasting that Purdue put on them at East Lafayette in September. In fact, overall in this series, Purdue has won and covered the L3 meetings, with an average point margin of 37.7 PPG. However, HC Joe Tillerâ€™s team backs into this game off three straight season ending losses and has struggled in bowl games, going just 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in its L7.

******* Forecaster: PURDUE 38, C MICHIGAN 27

******* Bryan says: These two teams battled early in the regular season in a game taken by the Boilermakers at home, 45-22. Since then, Purdue has gone 4-5 SU (3-5-1 ATS) including three consecutive losses to end the season on a down note. Meanwhile the mighty Chippewas have gone 7-3 SU (5-3-1 ATS) including wins in four of their last five. QB Dan LeFevour has used that time to become one of the most versatile offensive weapons in the game, averaging 278 passing and 101 rushing yards per game over Central Michiganâ€™s last eight regular-season

matchups. Three losses to BCS squads by a combined score of 43-167 is certainly reason for worry, but it is Purdueâ€™s inability to stop either facet of the offense (giving up 149 rushing and 234 passing yards per game), a trend that has grown progressively worse, that gives Central Michigan hope. The numbers suggest these two teams are closely matched and the (-9) line seems bloated due to the Big Ten dollar. LeFevour has the heart, Central Michigan will have the crowd in Detroit, and, as is often the case, the team that wants it more will persevere.

PREDICTION: Central Michigan by 1

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:31pm
0 likes

Dr. Bob

Purdue (-8 Â½) vs Central Michigan: Math favors Purdue by 10 points but situation slightly favors Central Michigan. Tough call, but Iâ€™ll lean slightly with Purdue

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:32pm
0 likes

POINTWISE: 0-6 SO FAR

MOTOR CITY PURDUE 41 - Central Michigan 27 RATING: 5

Motor City Bowl

7-5) vs CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-5)

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Purdue ........ 42.4 .. 33-25 .. 24-21 .. 136-151 .. 287-151.. + 4 . Purdue

C Michigan . 36.3 .. 34-36 .. 24-24 .. 186-166 .. 265-285.. + 3 . by 1.2 Pts

ANALYSIS

Did anyone say revenge? Once in a bowl season is a rarity, but this year there

are 2 such setups, with this contest joining that category, as the Boilermakers of Purdue (-22) pounded the Chippewas of Central Michigan, 45-22 on week #3 of this season. Purdue led it 38-0, before CM's LeFevour got hot, to narrow it to 38-22, before the eventual 1-pt Boiler cover. A 223-101 RY edge for PU in that rout. However, from a 5-0 start, & a Top 25 ranking, the Boilers would wind up on a 3-game slide, finishing tied for 7th in the Big Ten, along with Indiana, Michigan St, & Northwestern. Their 33 ppg "O" is led by prolific QB Painter, who threw for 3,300 yds, 26 TDs (9 INTs), but their "D" has impressed only sporadically, & they failed to cover in their last 4 away games. The Chips play on the turf of Ford Field for the 4th time in the past 2 years, & thus far, the results have been more than satisfactory, with 31-10 & 35-10 wins in the '06 & '07 MAC Title games, & a 31-14 win over Middle Tennessee in this bowl a year ago. Talk about your friendly confines. That bowl game, by the way, marked just their 3rd bowl trip (1st since the '94 Las Vegas). Jones has filled in nicely as head coach, after '06's head man Brian Kelly bolted for Cincinnati which losit its head coach to MIchigan St. The Chips are at their best in league play, as they are 114 pts ahead of the spread in their last 11 MAC games, but have a 164-90 pt deficit in their 4 non-conference games. LeFevour has been the quintessential steadying hand at QB, with a spectacular 6,229 PYs & 48 TDs the past 2 yrs. We would love to give the nod to the Chips, especially on this field, as such heavy dogs, but we simply can't dismiss that earlier 38-0 deficit

PROPHECY: Purdue 41 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN 27 RATING: 5

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:33pm
0 likes

WINNING POINTS

MOTOR CITY BOWL

(December 26 at Detroit)

PURDUE over CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 4

OK, so just how does an underdog close this much of a gap after losing 45-22 during the regular season vs. this particular opponent, trailing 31-0 at halftime? First,

there is obviously an emotional factor that leads to a stronger effort after being embarrassed, particularly when films of that earlier rout get shown over and over during pre-game practices. But even more important is that the favorite allows the game to be much closer because they simply can not find a reason to be excited. That is the Purdue situation here. Having closed the season with three consecutive losses, staying on campus into December and then taking a bus ride to Detroit over the Christmas Holiday is more of a punishment than a reward. No, the Chippewa defense can not be counted on to make many stops here, after allowing 30 first downs and 583 yards in the first meeting, although they do have some of the walking wounded back in the secondary. The key is to get enough production from Dan LeFevour and the offense, and when you have a QB that just became the second player in NCAA history to have over 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 rushing in the same season (Vince Young being the only other), you have a good starting point. The Chippewas are also confident in this environment, where they have picked up three decisive wins over the past 12 months, a pair of MAC Championship games, and LYâ€™s 31-14 bowl romp over Middle Tennessee. More enthusiasm puts them in the game, lesser talent keeps them from winning outright. PURDUE 38-34.

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:34pm
0 likes

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS

( 6-0 SO FAR ) -->. 3-0 SIDES/ 3-0 TOTALS

PURDUE (7-5) C MICHIGAN (8-5)

MOTOR CITY BOWL

The Motor City Bowl finally landed a B10 opponent for the 1st time S/â€™03 as the Boilers dropped their

L/3 gms and 5 of their L/7 after a 5-0 start. This is rematch of a Sept 15th meeting in which the Boilers

won 45-22 after leading 31-0 at the half while compiling 402 yds. PU finished with 586 yds overall despite

5 TOâ€™s including 4 fmbls. CM is 0-14 SU, 3-10-1 ATS vs the Big Ten S/â€™94 while Purdue is 34-7-1 SU

but 3-5 ATS vs the MAC (2-0 TY). Purdue has gone bowling in 10 of the 11 yrs of Tillerâ€™s tenure (3-6 SU

& 4-5 ATS) with CM being the 1st non-BCS foe. Slow starts have been the norm as Purdue has fallen

behind 95-0 in the L/6 bowls. The Boilers have played 8 gms vs bowl eligible teams (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)

being slightly outscored 27.1-26.6 while outgaining those foes 397-388. CM was 1-3 SU and ATS being

outscored 51-25 and outgained 537-427. This is the Boilersâ€™ 1st trip to Ford Field where CM is 3-0 SU

and ATS the L/2Y including two MAC Championship games and a 31-14 win over MT in LYâ€™s Motor City

Bowl. CM should have the crowd edge as they expect to sell 15,000 tickets while PU hopes to bring 5,000

fans. PU is 4-1-1 ATS an AF (2-1 TY). The Boilers have their most veteran team yet under Tiller with 9

senior starters and 17 upperclassmen. CM has 9 senior starters and 14 upperclassmen but also the

MAC Freshman of the Year in Antonio Brown. Purdue last played on Nov 17 while CM played Dec 1.

The Boilers started out â€˜07 on fire winning their first 5 gms (CM, IAA E Ill & 3 tms with losing records) by

25 ppg. QB Painter â€˜Breesedâ€™ through those overmatched foes with an 18-3 ratio. Once PU got to the meat

of their Big Ten schedule reality quickly set in as OSU and Michigan manhandled the Boilers by a combined

71-28 with 3 of PUâ€™s TDâ€™s coming in the L/1:00. PU rebounded to win their next 2 vs Iowa & NW before

stumbling in their L/3. The Boilers had an inconsistent ground game with Sheets having fmbl problems and

Taylor missing 4 gms with a broken arm. The receiving corps had 2 standouts in WR Bryant and TE Keller

(Mackey semis) but 6â€™4â€ Lymon suffered a sophomore slump before eventually being kicked off the team.

The OL is large (6â€™5â€ 310) and does a good job protecting Painter (23 sks allowed, 4.3%). Boilers are #39 in

our off rankings. PUâ€™s D (#5 returned 9 starters but the undersized front 4 (6â€™4â€ 269) struggled vs the run

(149 rush ypg, 4.0 allowed) and failed to generate a strong pass rush (24 sks). The LBâ€™s were solid finishing

as 4 of the teamâ€™s top 6 tacklers. Despite injâ€™s the secondary was greatly improved finishing #32 in our pass

eff D with CB Vinson actually leading the team in tackles, pbu and int. PU had their best ST unit of the Tiller

era finishing #5 with the one of the NCAAâ€™s top KR units (#7) which scored 3 TD led by Bryant.

CM has our #23 offense. Their main weapon is QB LeFevour who is #5 in the NCAA in total offense

as he had over 3,000 yds passing and 1,000 yds rushing joining Vince Young as the only players to

do so. LeFevour attended PU camps in HS but was never offered a scholarship by the Boilers. The

Chippewas also have two RBâ€™s who combined for over 1,000 yds rushing in Hoskins and LYâ€™s leading

rusher Sneed. Their top two WRâ€™s, Brown and Anderson, have combined for 53% of CMâ€™s receptions

and 55% of their receiving yds. The OL avg 6â€™4â€ 294 with 3 seniors which has opened holes for 5.0

ypc while allowing just 16 sacks (3.1%). CM has our #112 def allowing 36 ppg with 5 gms over 40 pts

including two over 50 pts. The DL avg 6â€™3â€ 264 with 2 seniors allowing 4.1 ypc with 22 sacks led by DE

Zombo, who leads the team in sacks. The top three tacklers are all LBâ€™s led by 2 seniors including Keith,

the MACâ€™s #2 tackler. The Chippewasâ€™ weakest link is the secondary with 4 underclassmen starters as

they have our #110 pass eff D allowing 285 ypg (65%) and a poor 31-16 ratio. CM comes in with our

#91 ranked STâ€™s unit. Brown was the bright spot of the ST leading the team in KR and PR with 1 TD.

They allowed two return TDâ€™s and 10.4 ypr on punts but just 19.4 on KR.

This matchup gave us a 4H Key Selection winner in the first meeting as Purdue was a 21â€™ point

favorite. The Boilermakers are now a single digit favorite and while CM has the emotional edge and is

thrilled to be here, the disparity in talent will become obvious in the 2H. Purdue will be able to run the

ball against a defense allowing 4.1 ypc and pass the ball against a secondary ranked #110 in our pass

eff defense. Three straight bowl losses and a 24-7 loss to Mayland LY (outgained 429-285) will ensure

that Purdue is ready. Thereâ€™s also a big edge in coaching with Tiller matching up vs a bowl virgin.

FORECAST: PURDUE 48 Central Michigan 31 RATING: 4

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:34pm
0 likes

SPORTS MEMO

Purdue vs. Central Michigan +9 O/U 71.5 Recommendation: Central Michigan

Wednesday, December 26, 7:30 pm EST (ESPN) Detroit, Mich

These two teams met back in early September in West Lafayette and

the result was not pretty for Chippewas backers. The Boilermakers

jumped out quickly to a 24-0 lead in the first quarter on the back of

Kory Sheets and arm of Curtis Painter. They would eventually extend

that lead to 31-0 at half, and 38-0 after the first possession of the

second half. Plain and simple, it was a steamroll. Purdue would go

on to start 5-0 breaking into the top 25 with a chance to knock off

the mighty Ohio State at home in a National TV game with major

title implications. They failed, miserably, and it started a downward

spiral that seems to repeat itself every season under Joe Tiller. Purdue

lost five of its last seven games straight up (including their final

three) and we have no reason to believe they will bring a top notch

effort in this second-tier bowl game against a team they dominated

so thoroughly already this year. Going back to that meeting in week

three, we have to wonder how much stock to put into the result? Central

Michigan lost two offensive line starters and its best pass rusher

to the NFL and its second leading tackler to graduation. This was a

team in early transition that really had nothing to play for before the

MAC season started, knowing full well that a second straight MAC

Championship was the goal all along. Comparing statistics on offense

and defense shows some impressive numbers from both sidesâ€™ offensive

units. Tillerâ€™s basketball on grass spread attack has been run

rather effectively by Curtis Painter this season leading Purdue to the

37th ranked offense in terms of total yardage. Painterâ€™s touch was

superb through most of the campaign, throwing for 3,300 yards on

62 percent completions with 26 TDs against just nine INTs. Painterâ€™s

numbers, however, and the teamâ€™s play became more and more

sloppy down the stretch. He fired three INTs in his final two games

with just two TDs, and Kory Sheets has basically disappeared over

this current seven-game stretch, amassing more than 70 yards just

two times. The Chips will check in with the 22nd ranked total offense

led by sophomore quarterback Dan LeFevour. In just his second season,

LeFevour has cemented himself as the MACâ€™s best player, hands

down. He has accumulated over 4,300 yards of total offense on his

way to joining Vince Young as the only other quarterback to throw

for more than 3,000 yards and rush for over 1,000 yards in a season.

His 23 TDs through the air were impressive but his 17 on the

ground were eye-popping as he nearly joined the exclusive Tim Tebow

20/20 club. Purdue would get the slight edge in total and scoring

defense, allowing 385 yards and 25 points per game to CMUâ€™s 450

yards and 35 points per game. But on a closer look at teams that run

a similar offense to that of the Chippewas (Indiana, Michigan State,

Minnesota) and youâ€™ll see those numbers increase to nearly 544

yards and 33 points per game. Joe Tiller-led teams have gone just

3-7 in bowl games, 4-6 ATS, a long term losing proposition. By taking

the points with Central Michigan, youâ€™ll get the more motivated

team with home state support and in-season revenge on its mind

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:35pm
0 likes

ASA Newsletter

Central Michigan(+9) over Purdue

As weâ€™ve stated many times before, picking bowl games is a lot about who wants to be there versus who doesnâ€™t want to be there. That theory applies perfectly to this game. The Boilers were looking for MUCH bigger things this season. They started the year 5-0 and there was talk of winning the Big Ten and a possible Jan. 1 bowl. Since that 5-0 start, Purdue has gone 2-5, barely squeaking into the final bowl spot for the Big Ten, the Motor City Bowl. This team is not at all excited about playing in the lowest bowl slot in the league when it was looking for a sunny, warm location to be making its post-season appearance.

Central Michigan was headed in the opposite direction to close out the season. After losing three of their first four games (including one at Purdue and weâ€™ll get to that in a minute), the Chippewas have won seven of their last nine games. This is an experienced team that won the MAC Championship two straight years and is thrilled to be here. They wanted another shot at Purdue and now they get it. This time the game is on a neutral field rather than in West Lafayette. Take that back, itâ€™s in Detroit, which will make it more of a â€œhomeâ€ game for CMU. They have been talking about redemption ever since being paired with Purdue for this game.

The Boilers beat CMU 45-22 back on Sept. 15. As we stated earlier, the Chippewas were not playing well at that point in the season. They got down 31-0 at halftime and had trouble mustering any offense. At halftime, they made some adjustments and outscored Purdue 22-14 and put up 239 yards passing in the second half. Purdue, on the other hand, had only 65 total yards of offense in half number two.

As the season went along, Central Michigan became very balanced on offense. It ended the season averaging 265 yards passing and 182 yards on the ground. Quarterback Dan LeFevour had his second straight outstanding season throwing for over 3,300 yards and 23 touchdowns. This team should make hay versus a Purdue defense that was shredded by good teams. It allowed 436 yards per game and 32 points per game versus teams going to bowl games. The Boilers went 1-5 versus those teams with their only win coming versus this CMU squad. In fact, that was Purdueâ€™s only win this year over a team with a .500 or better record.

Purdue isnâ€™t thrilled being here in the first place and now it must play a team it already beat this season. No chance they come out fired up for this game. This stays very close with the Chippewas pulling the upset.

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:35pm
0 likes

sunshine forecast

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Central Michigan(+9?) vs. Purdue

Power Rating Projection:

Purdue 35 Central Michigan 27

Statistical Projections

Central Michigan 29

Rushing Yards: 196

Passing Yards: 213

Turnovers: 2 Purdue 36

Rushing Yards: 133

Passing Yards: 334

Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Purdue 46 Central Michigan 27

Purdue (1 star)

_________________

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 5:36pm
0 likes

THE MAX- Dave Fobare______Central Michigan vs. Purdue _______________________Pass

Big Al 4-1 in bowls_____________________________________________ _________Pass

Drew Gordon_______________________400,000♦_____________ ________________Purdue

Eddie Roman_________________________25,000 play________________________Purdue

Rocco Spacamuro______________________100*_______________ __________Purdue -7.5

Charlies Sports Members Section________30*______________________________Pu rdue-8

Seabass__________________________10*______________ ___________________Purdue

B Lang___________________________10 Dime_____________________________Purdue

Wolkosky Milan______________________10*____________________ _____PURDUE -7Â½

Pointwise 0-6 SO FAR___________________ 5___________Purdue 41 - Central Michigan 27

Discount Sports Picks___________________5*_______________Purdue -8 over C. Michigan

Pay Picks_____________________________5*______________ _Purdue -7.5 buy the hook

Hank Green_________________________5*__________________ ______________Purdue

Northcoast Powersweeps 6-0 SO Far_______4★___________Purdue 48 Central Michigan 31

ATS Lock____________________________4_________________ _________Purdue -7 1/2

Yankee Capper_______________________2 Units__________________________Purdue -8

Sunshine Forecast_______________1 star______________Purdue 46 Central Michigan 27

Ace Ace . Allen Eastman 1-5 So Far______$100_________________Purdue Boilermakers -8

Norm Hitzges___________________Double Play____________Purdue -8 vs Central Michigan

Frank Rosenrat_______________________SB_________________ _________Purdue -7.5

Tony Mathews_______Wednesday Night Motor City Bowl Game of the Month______Purdue

Tom Striker______________________Motor City Mauling__________________ Purdue (-8)

Northcoast______________________Top Opinion____________________________Purdue

Dr Bob 4-2 SO FAR______________OPINION ONLY____________________Purdue -8 Â½

Gameday______________________Pass. Opinion___________________________Purdue

COVERS 1-5 so far_______________________________________________ __Purdue -9

The Gold Sheet _________________________________Purdue 43 â€“ Central Michingan 27

Vegas Hotsheet ( 4-5 SO FAR)_________________________________________Purdu e -8Â½

John Cambell FROM COVERS 1-5 So Far__________________________________ Purdue -9

MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: 5-1 SO FAR_______________________Purdue by 3

LVTR __________________________________________________ _____Purdue -7 Buy Hook

Armvin Sports____________________________________________ ___________Purdue -8

L. Ness' Las Vegas Insider___________________________________________ ______Purdue

The Platinum Sheet_____________________________________Purdue 38, C Michigan 27

Gamblers World TIP OF THE DAY_____________________________Purdue Boilermakers -9

Johnny Guild___________________________________________Pu rdue Boilermakers (7-5)

FoxSheets/Statfox______________StatFox Forecaster_________Purdue 38, C Michigan 27

WHATIF SPORTS SIMULATIONS BOWLS (3-3)__________Purdue 34 - Central Michigan 26

Mighty ! Quinn: 9-27 last 36_________________________________________Purdue-8 1/2

Payifwin Jason Bell_________________2000 dimes________________________C Mich +9

Arthur Ralph____________________900 Best Bet_____________________Central Michigan

Players of America___________50 units-Bowl Game of Year_____________Central Mich +8

Michael Cannon_________________20 Dime_______________________Central Michigan

THEERODFATHER OF SPORTS_________15 UNITS_________________________C Mich+8

Kodiak______________________________10____________ __________________CMU +8'

HQ Newsletter Bowl Games______________5*_______________C Michigan (+) over Purdue

PPP/Gavozzi__________________________3*_______________ ___________C Michigan

Psychic ________________________3 units_____________________Central Michigan +8

Winners Edge_______________________2 units_______________________C. Michigan +8

Wayne Root________________________Chairman______________ ________C. Michigan

The Lock Line___________________Top Opinion_____________________Central Michigan

Ben Burns_____________Motor City Bowl Masacure (3-0 L3, 15-7 L22)____Central Michigan

Spritzer_______________________Main Event____________________________C. Mich

Cokin_________________________Fat Man Release_______________________C. Mich

Feist__________________________Island Source Play______________________C. Mich

Sports Memo______________________________________________ ____ Central Michigan

Winning Points______________________________ ____Purdue over Central Michigan by 4

Andy Iskoe COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS (2-4 So far)_______Central Michigan over Purdue

Teddy Covers____________________________________________ ___Central Michigan +8

ASA Newsletter___________________________________Centr al Michigan(+9) over Purdue

MR A's_______________________________________________ ____Central Michigan + 8.5

David Page______________________________________________ __Central Michigan +7.5

Betting Prophets__________________________________________ _ Central Michigan +8

Atslocks.com 2-1 so far_______________________________________Central Michigan +8

Cappers Access_______________________comp_________________ _________C. Michigan

Texas Sports Wire-Steve Turner______Comp___________________________Central Mich

Charlies Sports Members Section_________500*____________________________ Over 71'

Executive Sports __________________250_________________________C MICH OV 71.5

Maingate Group____________________15*______________________ ___________OVER

Insider Sports Report______________4*_____C. Michigan/Purdue Over 71 Range 69.5 to 73

Primestar__________________________3*_____________ ____________________Over

10* Totals Club___________________2*_________________________ __________OVER

Frank Rosenrat_______________________SB_________________ ____________Over 70.5

Northcoast_____________________Double Total_______________________Purdue Over

LT Lock 0-2 so far_______________________________________________ __Over Purdue

Atslocks.com 2-1 so far______________comp_______________over 71 Central Mich/Purdue

Wolkosky Milan______________________10*__________________CM U/PUR UNDER 71Â½

Yankee Capper___________________3 Units_________________CMU/Purdue Under 71 Â½

ATS Financial___________________________3_____________ ________Under 72 Purdue

Silvas Sports __________________________________________________ C.Mich/Pur u 71

Lt ~ Profits___________________________________________ ________________Under

Vegas hotsheet ( 4-5 SO FAR)________________comp____________________Under 71Â½

posted by phantom

Dec. 26 2007 7:25pm
0 likes

CTO

10 ARIZONA STATE over Texas

Late Score Forecast:

ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 30

Holiday Bowl at San Diego, Calif.

(Thursday, December 27, 2007)

10 *LSU over Ohio State

Late Score Forecast:

*LSU 31 - Ohio State 16

BCS Championship Game

at New Orleans, Louisiana

(Monday, January 7, 2008)

TOTALS:

UNDER (48) in the Maryland-Oregon State game â€”Both defenses are strong & aggressive,

but rival QBs young...

UNDER (54) in the Fresno State-Georgia Tech game â€”Fresnoâ€™s top RB Mathews is injured;

blitzes of Tech interim HC Tenuta are relentless...

OVER (60) in the Michigan-Florida game â€”Gatorsâ€™ spread too speedy

for Wolverine defense, while QB Henne & RB Hart healthier now than much of the regular season...

OVER (60) in the Ball State-Rutgers game â€”Cardinal defense canâ€™t stop Ray Rice indoors, but Ball State offense is underappreciated.

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 2:16pm
0 likes

HQ Newsletter Bowl Games;

5* C MICHIGAN (+) over PURDUE

3* MICHIGAN (+) over FLORIDA

3*ILLINOIS (+) over USC

3* BALL ST (+) over RUTGERS

HQ UNDERDOG PLAY

Virginia(+) over Texas Tech

HQReport Total Recall OVER/UNDER

Free Play Indiania vs Oklahoma St "Play OVER"

A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems)

Free Play Tennessee over Wisconsin

__________________

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 2:17pm
0 likes

aaa

NCAAF: Auburn Tigers at Clemson Tigers - Auburn +2.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2

Game Date: 12/31/2007

Note: I do want to make it very clear that I absolutely hate Tommy Tuberville. But, when it comes to laying down money, it is clear that his coached team have been a very good proposition. That is especially true in the big games and he has had a few of those this year beating arch rival Alabama for the 6th straight time to close out the 2007 campaign, winning at Arkansas, beating Florida in the swamp, and giving LSU the scare of their life down there in Tiger Land. This team knows how to win, and more importantly, this team knows how to prepare to win. With preparation time as it is for this game, I suspect that the Tigers from the state of Alabama, ranked 6th in the land in total D, 8th in scoring D, 19th vs the run, & 13th vs the pass, will be up to the task verses the Clemson potent offense. Much has been said about the Clemson QB. Harper, who ranks 17th in the nation, as well as 1st in the ACC in QB ratings, with a 67% pct, & 2,887 yds, along with 27 TD passes, & just 6 Int's, is a good one. However, Clemson is prone to the turnover, and Auburn is one of the hardest hitting teams in Division 1A. They can make you get out of your rythem with extreme pressure on the passer, and a secondary that is probably the 2nd Best the SEC has to offer. That is key in this contest and we have already seen Auburn stop a talented Florida Gator passing attack, as well as holding Vandy to just 7 points. I can promise you that this is not going to be the popular choice in this game. Bettors love to play the best offensive teams and Auburn is not recognized as such. They are averaging 10 points less per contest than Clemson this year, and at time, they have had trouble moving the ball. But there is no doubt that their schedule has been much tougher than Clemson, playing some of the better D's in the country. The Clemson Tigers have 3 losses this year. Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech. Those 3 teams just happen to all have Great D Squads. They all have D teams similar to that of Auburn. None of them are better than this Auburn Crew. Coincidence? I don't think so.

NCAAF: Central Florida Golden Knights at Mississippi State Bulldogs - Mississippi State +3 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3

Game Date: 12/29/2007

Note: A lot of what I have to say about this game is already in the Total Play writeup so I will be very brief. This line is outrageous and based on the overall records of these two schools. The schedule of Mississippi State has been as least twice as difficult playing in the SEC as they have. Actually, the only two schools that the Knights have played that I would consider, quality teams was Texas and South Florida. They did perform well verses the Longhorns and lost a close game. They got pounded by the Bulls. Both of those schools are in the latter half of the top 25. That is it. That is who they have played. Miss State played LSU, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama, West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, That is 8 Teams that are going Bowling and a who's who of the top 25. You just cannot compare these teams based on record alone and I can promise you, that if the Knights had played the schedule of the Bulldogs this year, they would be getting ready for the Holidays in a totally different way. This game with this very good Miss State D is not going to be a Holiday. They have THE BEST secondary in the SEC. They have a huge defensive line and they have better quality athletes. They are also playing their best ball of the season right now and are truly excited to be in this bowl. I am pretty close to this situation and I could on and on at why the Bulldogs will win this one outright. But I will just stop and say that I will be betting this one moneyline as well. This game has been elevated to 3 Unit status.

NCAAF: Ball State Cardinals at Rutgers Scarlet Knights - Over 59.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2

Game Date: 1/5/2008

Note: This line has already started to rise since release and will probably continue to do so. This is best described as an Oddsmaker Blunder and a lot of reasons to like the OVER here. If you have never seen Ball State play then you are in for a treat. They have one of the best throwing QB's in the country and he not can throw, he knows when not to. His 27 TD's and just 6 Int's are about as good as it gets and a primary reason why the Cardinals have scored 32 points per contest. That does include 40 verses Nebraska so they can play with the big boys. Rutgers is a Big Boy and they too should have a field day against the Cardinal D that is just as bad as their offense is good. While the Scarlet Knights have a better than average D, the intensity level in this game is apt not to be that great as this game will be a break from the New Year's games and the big one coming up with Ohio State/LSU. Rutgers season has not been what they expected and they are coming to town to have some fun. They will, and will probably put a big hurt on the Cardinals as well. That will leave Ball State trailing much of the game, if not all of the same, and being in catchup mode is going to give us lot's of passing, a long clock and a few turnovers along the way leading to short fields. The Pass D of Ball State is atrocious, allowing over 220 yards per game and Rutgers recievers are just simply quicker and stronger than anything Ball State can throw at them. If I had to guess I would say that holding the Knights below 40 points is not likely to happen. The Cardinals have shown the ability to strike quick and they too will showcase a good recieving corp. That should allow them to make a few plays to give us what we need. This could easily be the highest scoring game of all the Bowl games and this line is a bargain.

NCAAF: Indiana Hoosiers at Oklahoma State Cowboys - Oklahoma State -4 -110 | Unit Value: 2

Game Date: 12/31/2007

Note: Have I mentioned yet that I am not at all impressed with the play in the Big 10 this year?. While this conference has some good teams, overall, they have been as weak as I have seen them for a very long time. Indiana is in the category of just average and the fact is, if they had played in the conference that the Cowboys do, they would not be Bowling this year. I can't even begin to count the money I have made betting for and against the Hoosiers, because they are very predictable. They punish the lessor schools with their potent offensive attack, and they get punished when they play the Big Boys. While I would not say that OK State is a Big Boy, they do bring much more to the table in this one, including more team speed on both sides of the line of scrimmage. You can look at all 5 Indiana losses this year and in every one of them, they had severe stat deficiencies. That is also true in a game in which they won verses Iowa, with a lot of breaks giving them that win. Oklahoma State has the 9th best offense in the country. They also have the 7th best rushing offense. It does not take a Rocket Scientist to look and see, that against the better rushing teams of the Big 10, Indiana was just pathetic. Michigan State alone garnered 368 yards verses this team. Wisconsin 279 yards. Overall Rushing D numbers for Indiana look OK, but when you look further, you see that they played a lot of non-conference foes that pass the ball a lot. That works in their favor. This game does not. The QB for the Cowboys is the real deal and he can pass, and he can RUN. He should have a field day with the Hoosiers, and if OK State does not grab 40+ points in this contest, I will be hugely surprised. I am not here to say that the Hoosiers will not get some points of their own verses the Cowpoke D that is #104 in the country. However, that is somewhat decieving, considering the wide open conference in which they play. OK State will simply outscore Indiana in this game.

NCAAF: Wisconsin Badgers at Tennessee Volunteers - Tennessee -2 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3

Game Date: 1/1/2008

Note: I am not at all impressed with the play in the Big 10 this year and one of those teams is Wisconsin who has done quite well verses the lessor teams and no so good verses the better teams. The only real team that they beat this year was Michigan and certainly the Wolverines suffered through their worst season in a very long time. They have struggled away from the friendly confines and all 3 losses have come on the road. That is important for this game, because one of the things that I have noticed in Bowl situations, is that the Big 10 does not do so well having to always be the conference that has to travel the most. With most Bowls being in the South and West, and certainly all of the Bigger One's, the advantage lies with the squads playing in their own area, with much more familiar surroundings, local support, and a bigger fan base. Almost nobody travels as well as the Vols Fans, and this huge school also have fan support throughout the southeast. I have been to a Sugar Bowl and have seen Wisconsin play, and I have seen how many they bring to a game. It was not very impressive at all. Of course I would never play a game just based on the venue and that is not the primary reason to play this one. After a slow start, Tennessee is playing as good as anyone in the country and came a whisker away from winning the SEC championship. This team is excited about what they done and especially with the way the defense is playing. They have been as good as anyone at stopping the run over the last 6 games of the season and that is what Wisconsin brings to the table. However, they might not bring leading rusher P.J. Hill to the table suffering from a leg injury. The Vols are going to make Donovan pass the ball as they have have superior D Team Speed, and you just cannot run wide on them with any quality results. They grow'em big and fast at Tennessee and the overall speed between these two schools is overwhelming. We certainly have a huge advantage at the QB position for this one with Ainge being one of the best in the south and already breaking a few of Peyton Manning's marks at this school. He rarely makes mistakes and he is a true team leader. Ainge has 29 TDs, 10 INTs, 3,157 yards, and a 63% completion rate. His 300 completions has snapped the UT record of 287 set by Peyton Manning in 1997. That has been done playing in the best defensive conference in the country. Donovan's numbers are a far cry below that and one of the reasons is the fact that Ainge has bigger and faster recievers to throw to. There goes that team speed thing again. I suspect that while watching this game, you will take note at how quickly the Vols get to the ball on D, and how quickly they get to the endzone on O. I am laying this small number based on that fact alone.

NCAAF: Central Florida Golden Knights at Mississippi State Bulldogs - Under 60 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3

Game Date: 12/29/2007

Note: There are a lot of high scoring teams in Conference USA and vertainly the Knights are one of them. They have averaged over 38 points per contest and here toward the end of the season even better than that, scoring 40+ four of their last five games. They have been playing teams that have little or no defense though and teams that can score themselves. That leads to more possessions and a contest that is wide open in nature. That is not what Mississippi State is all about though and that is not what the SEC is all about. Central Florida is not going to have their way in this one. The Bulldogs have outstanding line play, and a secondary that is second to none in the toughest conference in the land. We do remember how they limited Kentucky to just 14 points at Lexington right. They also stopped Alabama in their tracks and Auburn as well, limiting those teams to 12 points and 14 points. In their final game of the year Ole Miss managed just 14 points as well. This team can play D and they take a lot of pride in doing so. The Bulldogs are a ball control club, equally distributing the run with the pass. Their goal has been stated. That is to keep the ball away from the Golden Knights. I am not here to say that CF cannot and will not score points in this contest. But they are not going to have nearly as much possession time, and when they do, they are not going to have nearly as much success. This will be the first Bowl Game for Croom's Bullies and this town is very excited about the possibilities. They are going to have many more supporters at the game in Memphis and this is going to have a flavor of a home contest. Other than the opening game of the season verses LSU, Miss State has been stifling on D in a home setting and they will come to play. The Knights will not be looking across the line at Tulsa, Marshall, UAB, or SMU. They will be looking at an SEC Squad and the quality of defense in this conference is far superior to that of Conference USA. Perhaps that is why UNDER is 8-3 the last 11 games Miss State has played verses a CUSA Team? If this line was set at 50 it would be a harder decision for me to pull this trigger. I probably still would. At this level, it is a No-Brainer.

NCAAF: Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Houston Cougars - Over 59 -110 | Unit Value: 2

Game Date: 12/28/2007

Note: This game is clearly all about the TCU Defense verses the Houston Offense. Those are the two strengths of these two teams with the Frogs allowing just 19 points per contest this year. The Cougars meanwhile have the 4th best offensive attack in the nation, throwing out 513 yards per contest. This attack is very balanced and the reason why they have scored at least 34 points in 9 of their last 11 games. We often hear that good D stops good O and in many cases that is true. But Bowl Games offer a different flavor, and especially when it is not being played BCS Style. While the offensive brains have left from this team to go to Baylor, the Cougars should by now know how to score on their own and score they have this year. What they have not been able to do is to stop the opposition, allowing 30 per contest themselves and often verses teams that have not been all that score-worthy. We can look at previous Houston Bowl appearances to find that they have allowed 54, 42, and 44 points in their 3 bowl games since 2003, and the fact is, they just don't have the horses to stop anyone. Certainly not a team that has this long to prepare for them. Both teams have quick strike ability, both teams have quality QB's and both teams have very good team speed. These two used to play quite a bit so familiararity is not going to be a problem. When they did, we usually saw up and down the field action. The last 2 games have seen 61 and 117. That is not a typo. That is 117. While I don't suspect that we will see that many in this one, the line is being held down due to coaching changes at Houston and a value line in my opinion. Play the OVER

NCAAF: Ohio State Buckeyes at Louisiana State Fighting Tigers - LSU -4 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3

Game Date: 1/7/2008

Note: This line opened as high as LSU -5 and as expected, it has dropped down. I don't know where the line will go from here but what I have seen, with opinions from other handicappers and public betting, it might very well go down further. However, I will not take the chance at this key number and I will go ahead and get on the Tigers at the current level. I know that I have already said this. The Big Ten is way down this year and although Ohio State is a quality team, they certainly were last year as they played verses Florida and got their ass handed to them. Handicapping College Bowls is more than just about conference verses conference though and that is not the reason to play this game. One reason to play it is the obvious advantage that LSU will have playing in their backyard here in New Orleans. LSU has had 2 mishaps this year verses Kentucky and Arkansas and many will look at that as a reason to play against them. But the fact is, week in and week out, play in the SEC is taxing and going through this conference undefeated is just not reality. The Tigers will be ready for this one, and the long layoff will help them greatly as they get well from a lot of nagging injuries. One of those is to their QB Flynn, who is suffering from a shoulder injury but expected to play. The styles of play between the SEC and Big 10 are like night and day as their is simply much more team speed in the south and that is what did the Buckeyes in last year. Downfield throwing by Todd Boeckman is not going to be as easy as it has been with the Tigers putting extreme pressure on the QB and defensive backs that are bigger and quicker than anything that he has yet to see. Focus is another key in this game as the Tigers get to practically stay at home away from all of the media hype that happens in championship games. It is interesting to note that LSU employs a two-quarterback system of Matt Flynn, who threw for 2,233 yards, 17 touchdowns, and Ryan Perrilloux, who had 694 yards passing, eight TD's. That is much like what Florida did last year and very hard to prepare for. This LSU team is an offensive powerhouse, averaging 38.7 points, 12th-most in the nation. The Tigers topped the 40-point mark seven times in 2007 and defeated six ranked teams. Lest we forget that fact, some can only remember the losses. While the Ohio State offense has averaged 32 points per game, they have done the bulk of that verses Big 10 D's that are not up to snuff. The Buckeyes have more speed than anyone in the Big 10. They did last year as well. They played the Gators and were out-quicked. They will be in this game. They will also have to contend with Glenn Dorsey. Dorsey is the best D player in the country but was hampered by a sore knee late in the season. This guy is just simply bad news and for the first time in a long time, he will be near or at 100%. I am sure that Todd Boeckman will get to know him personally in this contest. LSU is the better team. They don't have a better record. They will when this game ends.

NCAAF: Illinois Fighting Illini at Southern California Trojans - Over 50 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3

Game Date: 1/1/2008

Note: It has not taken Ron Zook to long to turn this Illinois team into an offensive powerhouse. They are led by a very elusive QB, Juice Williams, who can beat you so many ways. He is going to have success verses the Trojans on New Year's Day and it is all because he is not a sitting duck like many QB's are in the Pac 10. This guy can throw, but more importantly he can beat you with the run, and he can beat you with his mobility in the pocket. As you know, I had these Trojans in their big win over AZ State, and all because of the great pressure they put on the QB. They did that very well and they followed it up with another nice effort verses UCLA to close out the 2007 campaign with a bang, winning their last 4 games, and primarily because of their defensive efforts. That fact alone has given us a super low Total Line for this one and I will thank the Oddsmakers for that. This is a different Animal coming to the West Coast though and USC is not going to be able to lay into the passer all game long. As most offensive squads do, the Iliini are peaking toward the end of the year, scoring 35 points per game over the last 4 games, and they they even managed 28 verses a very talented Ohio State team. They are going to get their points in this one. But the main reason to play this game is the USC scoring machine that has Booty back in the saddle and playing an Illinois D that has no way of stopping them. This offensive crew is performing as good as anyone in the country right now and their last two game yard margins are phenominal, with 447 verses the Bruins, and 508 verses AZ State. Those two D's are far better than what Illinois brings to the table and holding the Trojans down below 35 in this one is not going to be likely. We should not be fooled by what USC has done overall this year. They are healthy and they are hungry. It would not even surprise me if they got this total line all by themselves. Illinois is probably going to be working from behind most of this game. That is going to keep the ball in the air, and that is more than likely going to create some Boo Boo's. That very well might give us some bonus D points. Play OVER with confidence.

2007 HEAVY HITTER RECORD: 205-104>66.34%

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 2:17pm
0 likes

JEFFERSONSPORTS

updated records since october 6th (membership began)

NHL 35-21

NCAA HOOPS 38-26

NBA 39-28

NFL 12-14

NCAA FOOTBALL 20-7 3-0 bowls

OVERALL RECORD 144-96 (60%) since oct 6th

Early Release Bowl play 12/29

CONNETICUT+3

__________________

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 2:18pm
0 likes

Marc Lawrence

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AWESOME ANGLE

OF THE WEEK

ATS W-L Record

Since 1980:

11-1

(91%)

HEISMAN

HEX PLAY AGAINST the Heisman

Trophy winning team in a bowl

game that allows 3.0 > yards per

rush vs. an opponent that has

won 15 > of its last 22 games.

PLAY AGAINST:

FLORIDA GATORS

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

The Oakland Raiders

are 1-101-1 ATS in their last 103

straight-up home losses

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 2:21pm
0 likes

Cajun-Sports

Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA)

This Bowl Game features a first year Head Coach at one University and the other Coach leading his team to 10 straight seasons with at least nine wins. Dennis Erickson has done a masterful job with his Arizona State Sun Devil team as they come in ranked 12th in the nation with 10 wins in the regular season and a share of the PAC 10 Title, not too bad for his first season at the helm at ASU. While Texas head man Mack Brown has been consistent if nothing else as his Longhorns come in ranked 17th in the nation and a chance for a 10-win season.

Coach Erickson has brought a sense of stability and confidence to this program and that is reflected in both his offensive and defensive squads. On offense ASU QB Rudy Carpenter has been outstanding throwing for 250+ yards per game on 63% completions and a very impressive 23 touchdowns to only 8 interceptions. They have also averaged a little over 32 points per game on 12.7 yards per point.

ASUâ€™s defense has been equally impressive holding opponents to 19.5 points per game. Their rush defense is allowing a little over 100 yards rushing per game on 3.6 yards per carry. Their pass defense is not quite as stout as their rush defense but they are only allowing 247 yards passing per contest on the year and forcing opponents to 18.5 yards per point.

The Longhorns have shown the ability to score as well averaging 35.2 points per game on the season on 467 yards of total offense. The Longhorns offensive attack is lead by QB Colt McCoy who has completed 65% of his passes for 261 yards per game. He has also thrown for 21 touchdowns which is very productive but when you add to that fact he has thrown 18 to the other team the numbers are not quite as remarkable.

The Texas defense is where the key for this game is found. The Longhorn defense is ranked 109th in the nation in pass defense allowing 275 yards passing per game. They are allowing over 24 points per game and in their last three contests they have averaged allowing 38.7 points per game and 534.3 yards of total offense. These types of numbers if they continue in this game will translate into a long day for the Longhorns as the ASU offense led the PAC 10 in passing efficiency.

Motivation is always important in any sport but it is especially important in College Bowl Games where you might have one team disappointed in the Bowl they are playing in because they had higher hopes for their season and then you have a team that is excited to be in the Bowl and looking forward to playing their opponent. Well based on the Longhorn Players themselves we think we know who will be the more motivated team in this contest.

The Texas Longhorns were hoping for bigger and better things at the start of the season than the Holiday Bowl. Texas started the year 4-0 and then lost their National Championship hopes when dropping back-to-back games in the Big 12. Texas coach Mack Brown said: â€œWe didnâ€™t play to our standards. Our guys need a really good opponent to get up for.â€ His players have one now in Arizona State, but most of the senior players are not happy with the team's finish, including DT Frank Okam who said: â€œThis (the Holiday Bowl) is not where we want to be.â€

There are a couple technical situations that back our position against the Longhorns. The first one is when Texas has played in a minor bowl coming in off a straight up loss and not an underdog of four or more points we find they are 0-5 ATS failing to cover by an average of over 17 points per game. The second tech situation finds Texas in the same situation but facing an opponent off a straight up win by two or more points the Longhorns check in at 0-5 ATS and failing to cover the number by an amazing 22 points per game.

From a situational standpoint we know to â€œPlay Againstâ€ CFB Neutral field favorites in minor bowl games (played in December), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, 53-19 ATS the last ten seasons and 12-4 ATS the last three years. â€œPlay Againstâ€ CFB Neutral field favorites (TEXAS) - in minor bowl games (played in December), good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season, 48-18 ATS the last ten seasons and already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year.

Finally we have a Super System that backs our play on ASU. Following a straight up win but a poor spread performance where a team failed to cover the spread or score 21 points after scoring at least 21 points in its previous 3 games they have bounced back strong as evidenced by this Super System. It says to Play ON a team with 21+ days rest off a SU win & ATS loss/push, scoring less than 21 points in its last game and scoring 21+ points in each of its 3 games before that, 18-0 ATS since 1980. This system qualifies a Play ON Arizona State (+)

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:29pm
0 likes

Michael Cannon - - was 3-0 yesterday

Thursday's Play...

50 Dime â€“

ARIZONA STATE

Take Arizona State as the small dog tonight in the Holiday Bowl over Texas.

This is not the best of spots for Texas, as they struggled down the stretch with their pass defense and now have to face a polished passer in Arizona Stateâ€™s Rudy Carpenter.

Carpenter threw for 3,015 yards with 23 TDs and only eight INTs this year. He was a big reason the Sun Devils finished 10-2 on the year under coach Dennis Erickson.

The Longhorns struggled big time down the stretch on defense, particularly against the pass. Texas allowed a staggering 1,573 yards and 13 touchdowns through the air in its last three games and finished the season ranked 109th in the nation in passing yards allowed.

Arizona State leads the nation in Time of Possession (33:56), while Texas allowed rival Texas A&M to keep the ball for 40 minutes in its season finale. Mind you, the Longhorns were playing with revenge motive against the Aggies and still came up on the short end of a 38-30 final score.

The Longhorns are no pushovers with Colt McCoy leading the offense, but the sophomore quarterback has been prone to mistakes this year with 18 interceptions.

It wouldnâ€™t surprise me to see the Sun Devils pick McCoy off a few times tonight, as their speedy secondary is ranked No. 6 in passing efficiency defense, allowing 232 ypg on 52 percent completions, with a 17-17 TD-to-INT ratio.

The Texas offensive line is banged up, with starting left tackle Tony Hills and starting center Dallas Griffin both out with season-ending injuries suffered a week apart in November.

Carpenter should have a field day against the Longhorns secondary, which will allow the Sun Devils to sustain drives and control the clock.

Texas is just 2-10 ATS as a bowl chalk (2-6 under Mack Brown). Big 12 bowlers are also just 2-9 ATS off a SU favorite loss, 5-16 ATS as a chalk versus a foe off an ATS win and 1-7 ATS in the last eight bowl matchups when favored over the Pac 10.

Holiday Bowl favorites are just 1-8 ATS and the underdog in Arizona State bowl games has cashed 10 of the last 12 tickets.

Take Arizona State as the small dog tonight as they get it done over Texas.

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:30pm
0 likes

Pointwise Phone (Bowl Record 0-7)

4* Arizona St.

__________________

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:30pm
0 likes

SUNSHINE FORECAST

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Texas(-1?) vs. Arizona State

Power Rating Projection:

Arizona State 29 Texas 28

Statistical Projections

Texas 29

Rushing Yards: 146

Passing Yards: 292

Turnovers: 2 Arizona State 27

Rushing Yards: 97

Passing Yards: 269

Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Texas 36 Arizona State 24

Texas (1 star)

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:30pm
0 likes

L. Ness' Holiday Bowl 24* (Texas/Arizona St)

My 24* is on Texas at 8:00 ET.

One could make a solid argument that BOTH of these teams are disappointed to be here. Texas had national title hopes before the season (at a minimum expected a BCS bowl bid) while ASU opened a surprising 8-0 and with a win on Thanksgiving night at home vs USC, would have secured a Rose Bowl bid (lost 44-24). Even with the Rose Bowl out of the picture, the Sun Devils were a likely BCS bowl team but the Rose Bowl decided on a traditioanl Big 10/Pac 10 matchup, chosing Illinois to play USC. If the Rose Bowl had chosen Georgia, then ASU would have likely filled that 10th BCS bowl spot! In the end however, I just don't have ANY faith in ASU in a big game. In its two biggest tests TY, ASU flopped at Oregon and at home to USC (lost by 20, allowing 508 yards!). Rudy Carpenter had an excellent year at QB (63% / 251.2 YPG / 23-8 ratio) but he was sacked 51 times (Texas defensive front will love that!). Texas QB McCoy was erratic this year (21-18 ratio), after posting a 29-7 ratio as a freshman. He did lose his best WR (Sweed) and two OL but Texas has great depth. RB Charles (1,458 / 6.3 / 16 TDs) was great and should have a big game. Texas lost back-to-back Big 12 games to open the year but then won five straight (avg win by almost 20 points!) before throwing in a clunker vs an inspired A&M team in its final game. ASU fell behind Colo (14-0), Ore St (19-0) and Cal (13-0) but came back to win each time, in starting 8-0. Then, the Sun Devils "spit out the bit" when it counted. Erickson's team is overrated and is in over its head vs Texas. Head coach Mack Brown just continues to win, as he's the only coach to guide his teams to nine-plus wins in 11 consecutive seasons! Class wins out. 24* Texas.

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:32pm
0 likes

THE SPORTS MEMO

Arizona State vs. Texas -2 O/U 61 Recommendation: Over

Thursday, December 27, 8 pm EST (ESPN) San Diego, Calif

The PAC-10 has the worst bowl affiliations of any major conference.

The second, third and fourth place teams from the Big Ten

all play on New Yearâ€™s Day in desirable locations: Tampa Bay, Orlando

and Pasadena. The fifth team from the SEC, Arkansas, plays

in the Cotton Bowl on New Yearâ€™s Day. But in the PAC-10, the second

place team plays in the Holiday Bowl on a Thursday Night just after

Christmas in December. Thereâ€™s no question that Arizona State, as

a team, is extremely disappointed in this bid. The Sun Devils were

penalized for the Fiesta Bowlâ€™s location in Tempe, otherwise they

would likely have earned a BCS Bowl bid in their home city. But economic

concerns (tourists spend more local dollars than residents)

forced the Fiesta Bowl to look elsewhere, allowing the Rose Bowl to

pick Illinois as an at-large team, leaving Dennis Ericksonâ€™s squad in

San Diego over the holidays. San Diego certainly isnâ€™t a bad place

to be in late December, but itâ€™s certainly not an exotic or enticing

location for a PAC-10 school. Thatâ€™s just one of the reasons why the

Holiday Bowl has been an underdog bettorâ€™s dream over the last

decade. Qualcomm Stadium seems to be a place where favorites

come to lose. The favorite in this bowl is just 1-8 ATS in its nine-year

existence, with five favorites losing outright and three more winning

in tight fashion. Cal became the first favorite ever to cover the

spread in this bowl last year, whipping Texas A&M 45-10. If Arizona

State overcomes the disappointment of their BCS Bowl snub and

comes to play, they are surely the better of these two teams, capable

of winning by margin. The Sun Devils thrived on adversity all

year, rallying back repeatedly from early deficits. Quarterback Rudy

Carpenter thrived under Ericksonâ€™s tutelage, completing 63% of his

passes with a 23-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio while throwing for more than

3,000 yards. Leading rusher Keegan Herring struggled down the

stretch after his counterpart, Ryan Torain, was lost with a season

ending injury, but he still averaged just shy of 5.5 yards per carry.

And weâ€™d be remiss if we failed to mention frosh kicker Thomas

Weber, who converted on 22 of his 23 field goal tries, including a

perfect six-for-six from outside 40 yards. Weberâ€™s foot is a major

reason why Arizona State averaged more than 30 points per game

in PAC-10 play this year. And with a defense that allowed more than

20 points only three times all season, Arizona State didnâ€™t blow a

single lead all season, they were simply outplayed in both of their

losses (USC and Oregon). Texas wasnâ€™t very good this year, right

from the start. They were resilient, rallying from behind to earn key

late season wins against Nebraska and Oklahoma State on consecutive

weeks, but their defense really fell apart down the stretch, particularly

against the pass. The Longhorns allowed more than 1,500

passing yards in their final four games, giving up more than nine

yards per pass attempt during that span. Quarterback Colt McCoy

is certainly capable of stellar big game performances, and this bowl

has a history of wild shootouts. Expect another wild game this year.

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:35pm
0 likes

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS ( 6-1 SO FAR ) -->. 3-1 SIDES/ 3-0 TOTALS

ARIZONA ST (10-2) TEXAS (9-3)

HOLLIDAY BOWL

This will be the 1st meeting between these programs. Texas is making a bowl trip for the 10th straight

year (23-21-2 all-time). Longhorns are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in the Holiday Bowl & are 0-5 ATS S/â€™95 in non-NYD

bowls. Arizona St (12-10-1 all-time) is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS in the Holiday Bowl (lost 27-4, +18â€™ in last trip

here vs #6 K-St). Sun Devil HC Erickson is 5-5 in bowls (4-6 ATS) and this is the 4th different team he has

guided to the post season. Hornsâ€™ HC Brown is 9-6 SU & 6-9 ATS (3-6 ATS w/UT) in bowls. ASU & UT are

both disappointed not to be playing on NYD. ASU did sell their allotment of tickets, but Texas might have the

fan edge due to the Longhornsâ€™ faithful fans. ASU is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outscoring oppâ€™s

on avg 30-28 & being outgained 381-378. UT is 4-2 SU & 3-2-1 ATS vs bowl caliber teams outscoring foes

on avg 36-32 & outgaining them 464-432. Texas has 8 senior starters with 15 upperclassman (68%) while

ASU has 10 senior starters with 18 upperclassman (82%). The Sun Devils are 6-16 ATS as ADâ€™s, incl TYâ€™s

loss in Eugene (w/Dixon). Horns are 2-7-1 ATS as an AF (including LYâ€™s bowl). Texas has had 8 more days

to prepare as ASU finished up on Dec 1st. While UT (#6) & ASU (#26) both rank high offensively, the Sun

Devils have a slight def edge (#14-32), and have played a stronger sked (#9-25).

QB Carpenter flourished in Ericksonâ€™s system increasing the tms ppg avg from 26.8 to 32.2 TY.

The ground gm was a surprising plus for the 2nd consec yr despite #1RB Torain going down mid-ssn

w/inj as Herring & Nance did a solid job in his absence. WR Jones continues to be the deep threat in

the receiving corps while McGaha leads the tm in rec & rec yds but surprisingly has yet to reach the

EZ. ASUâ€™s OL avg 6â€™5â€ 315 and is full of experience with 4 Srâ€™s & 1 Jr paving the way for 147 ypg (3.4)

but surprisingly allowed a Pac 10 high 51 sks (only SYR & ND allowed more nationally). Altogether

the offense has our #26 ranking. For the 2nd straight ssn, ASUâ€™s def started on fire holding 4 of their

first 5 opponents to 14 pts or less. The DL avg 6â€™3â€ 267 & is led by Davis and Vasquez allowing 101

ypg (3.4) on the ground while recording 27 ttl sks. The LB corps is led by James who led the tm in

tkls (37 more than #2). The ASU secondary is ranked #6 in pass eff def allowing 232 ypg (52%) with

a 17-17 ratio. They are led by a dangerous CB in Tryon & playmaking SS Nolan. ASU finished with

our #14 overall defense. First yr K Weber had an AA ssn converting on all but 1 of his FG attempts

earning the Groza Award in the process. The Sun Devils finished with our #39 ST ranking.

Texas has had one of the most inconsistent seasons under Brown, but he is the only active IA HC

to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 11 consec ssns. After B2B opening Big XII losses, the Longhorns avg win

was by 19 ppg while they outgained foes by 126 ypg before running into an emotional A&M squad in

their ssn finale. Brown still had UT one gm from a Title shot & a possible BCS bowl. Soph QB McCoy

had a little slump as he tossed an int in every gm TY except vs Rice (#105 pass eff D) & ISU (#106).

The rushing attack was stellar led by Charles with six 100+ yd gms including a career best 290 (8.

vs Nebraska. The Longhorns came into TY with one of the most explosive WR corps in the country, but

suffered a huge loss when Sr Sweed had ssn ending wrist surg at mid-ssn. Sr Jones & former minor

league baseball player Cosby stepped up as the primary targets. The OL avg 6â€™5â€™â€™ 305 with NO senior

starters but 1st Tm All-Big 12 Sr LT Hills (6â€™6â€™â€™ 305) broke his left fibula on 11/10 & Sr C Griffin (6â€™4â€™â€™ 285)

tore an ACL on 11/3 & going into the bowl they are very inexperienced with just 1 upperclassman in the

3 deep. The DL avg 6â€™3â€™â€™ 284 with 2 senior starters & this is a deep unit allowing 3.0 ypc & UT is ranked

#10 in NCAA in rush D allâ€™g just 99 ypg. UT has a lot of talent in the secondary, but ranks #56 (allâ€™g 276

ypg, 62%, 20-14 ratio). Texas has our #6 ranked offense, #32 defense & #25 sp tms.

This bowl features a pair of HCâ€™s with National Championships. Both teams have a propensity to fall

behind early and rally back. Texas had an uneven season and did not win & cover consec games this

year and finished their season getting upset by A&M for a 2nd straight year. ASU did finish by beating

UA but failed to cover any of their final 4 gms. As you can see by the checklist, we rate these teams even

but the Sun Devils get the call being a team thrilled to be here vs a team that is 0-5 ATS on non-NY Day

bowls and that expected to be a national contender or at the minimum a BCS bowl team.

FORECAST: ARIZONA STATE (+) 35 Texas 32 RATING: 2*

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:36pm
0 likes

THE SPORTS REPORTER

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27

HOLIDAY BOWL

Qualcomm Stadium â€“ San Diego, CA

BEST BET

ARIZONA STATE over TEXAS by 11

At the end of his first season with the Sun Devils, head coach Dennis Erickson takes one

of the nationâ€™s most upperclassmen-laden teams into a state that 41 players on his roster

called home before they packed up and moved to Tempe, AZ. Most of those kids

were from the Southern California area, where three Texas players are from. Longhornsâ€™

head coach Mack Brown has declared Texasâ€™ bowl practices and the game as â€œall starting

jobs openâ€ season, which will draw some attention Texasâ€™ way. Maybe it should,

maybe it shouldnâ€™t. Texas is 0-3 ATS in Holiday Bowls under Brown, all against Pac 10

opponents. When Texas is playing in the Holiday Bowl, Texas has had an unfulfilling season

and â€œall starting jobs are openâ€ for the next. Thatâ€™s how a coach sustains a highlevel

program expected to compete for national championships every year. We played

successfully on South Carolinaâ€™s Steve Spurrier and a similar â€œall jobs openâ€ edict in a

bowl last season, but Spurrierâ€™s opponent was from Conference USA. If Brown is holding

open auditions with only 41 upperclassmen on the roster and three key seniors

among 18 unavailable (center Dallas Griffin, left tackle Tony Hill, WR Limas Sweed) then

Ericksonâ€™s 55 Pac 10 upperclassmen (31 juniors, 24 seniors) would appear to have an

edge. Arizona State leads the nation in Time of Possession (33:56), while the Texas

defense allowed 533, 476 and 594 yards in its last three outings and was the culprit

when the Texas A&M offense played a 40-20 minute game of hide the piggie against

the Longhorns. ARIZONA STATE, 37-26

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:36pm
0 likes

WINNING POINTS

HOLIDAY BOWL

(December 27 at San Diego)

ARIZONA STATE over TEXAS by 5

We were surprised when Texas was opened as the favorite in this game, and then

even more surprised when the early money went in the Longhorn direction. But

reputations can be a difficult thing to change, which means that a program that has

been in serious decline since Vince Young left continues to be regarded as one that

rates among the nationâ€™s elite. Part of that, of course, is because Texas still managed

a 9-3 campaign, but it was a precarious tight rope â€“ the Longhorns were 3-0 in

games decided by three points or less. In Jamal Charles they have one of the most

under-rated RBâ€™s in the nation, but QB Colt McCoy lacks the arm strength to

attack defenses vertically, and a quick Sun Devil unit is difficult to move the ball

against if you are trying to make things happen underneath. The real problem for

Texas is a pass defense that was abysmal down the stretch. They finished 109th in

passing yards allowed, and over the last three games gave up a horrific 1,573 yards

and 13 touchdowns through the air, while getting only three interceptions. That

means ample opportunity for Rudy Carpenter (#1 in the Pac 10 in passing efficiency)

to attack, and we anticipate a special hunger from the Sun Devils to cap

their turnaround season under Dennis Erickson in style. This opponent, despite

being favored, is not all that much in their way. ARIZONA STATE 33-28.

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:36pm
0 likes

POINTWISE ( 0-7 SO FAR !!!!!!!!!!!)

HOLIDAY ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 36 RATING: 4

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Texas .......... 41.6 .. 36-25 .. 23-21 .. 200- 99 ... 262-276.. - 3 . Texas

Arizona St .. 43.3 .. 32-20 .. 22-18 .. 151-107 .. 259-232.. + 7 . by 3.4 Pts

ANALYSIS

For the 4th time in 8 years, the Longhorns of Texas return to the Holiday Bowl.

Vince Young, of course, took them to a pair of Rose Bowls, with 11-1 & 13-0

marks, the 2nd of which won for them the National Title. Since his departure,

Mack Brown's team has compiled a 19-6 log. A mark that the vast majority of

squads would cherish, but not up to their combined record of 56-8, the previous

4 seasons. They again rank among the elite squads in moving the ball,

finishing in the 12th spot in total offense, & 19th in scoring. RB Charles has

been their "go-to" man, finishing the regular season with 1,458 yds (6.3 ypr),

along with 18 TDs. But altho QB McCoy has thrown for 3,129 yds (64.9%) &

21 TDs, he has also tossed a co-Big 12 leading 18 interceptions. And check

the 'Horns allowing 35.2 ppg over their final 4 games. They are, of course, a

bowl season fixture, with this marking their 46th such contest, & in recent

years, jumping on the underdog has proven profitable, with the pup covering 7

of their last 8 holiday games. The Sun Devils of Arizona State had Rose Bowl

dreams as late as the final week of the season, but it wasn't to be. Dennis

Erickson inherited 16 starters from LY's 7-6 bowl team, & broke to an 8-0 start,

climbing to the 6th spot in the nation, before a loss to Oregon, despite a 489-

400 yd edge. Carpenter would rank 15th among the nation's QBs at season's

end, with 3,015 yds (63%), 23 TDs, & 8 INTs. Defensively, only 2 teams topped

146 RYs vs the Devils, who ranked 13th vs the run. Neither team did much

down the stretch, with the Suns entering on at 0-4 ATS, & the 'Horns at 1-3-1.

Holiday Bowls sure have seen their share of wild games. More of the same.

PROPHECY: ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 36 RATING: 4

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:36pm
0 likes

ACE ACE / ALLEN EASTMEN (1-6 SO FAR)

Holiday Bowl

M/L $400/$468 Take #404 Arizona State Sun Devils M/L over Texas Longhorns. (Thursday, December 27, 8:00 pm EST).

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:37pm
0 likes

MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: 6-1 SO FAR

Holiday Bowl

Arizona st by 1

posted by phantom

Dec. 27 2007 3:37pm
0 likes

JEFFERSONSPORTS ( Bowls 4-0 ):

CONNECTICUT - Saturday 12/29 -

SPORTS MEMO ( Bowls 7-1 ):

BOSTON COLLEGE

T C U

OREGON STATE

*- Added Play -

ATS :

Bowl Lock of the Year:

12* T C U

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 1:54pm
0 likes

Mike Volpe is 10-2 overall in bowl games (sides and totals) and up +34 Units

Champs Sports BowlDecember 28, 20075 PM ET on ESPNMichigan State Spartans (O/U 57) versus the Boston College Eagles -4 Another game where the books are begging you to bet the favorite. Boston College has a ten win season going and Heisman candidate Matt Ryan at QB. The Spartans are only 7-5 but played a hell of a schedule. Michigan State beat Bowl teams, Penn State, Purdue and lost three heart breakers to Bowl bound Michigan (By 3 points), Wisconsin (by 3 points ) and #1 Ohio State (by 7)

5 * Play on Michigan State Spartans +4 10)

Texas BowlDecember 28, 20078 PM ET on NFL NetworkHouston Cougars (O/U 62) versus TCU Horned Frogs -3.5 TCU looks to redeem a disappointing season with a Bowl win over in state rivals Houston. The Cougars face a rough road against one of the Nations best defenses.Look for a low scoring TCU Cover and win

3 * Play on the TCU Horned Frogs -3.5

4* Bonus Play on the UNDER 62

Emerald BowlDecember 28, 20078:30 PM on ESPNMaryland Terrapins (O/U 48.5) versus Oregon State Beavers -4.5 On paper this game looks like a mis match. The Oregon State Beavers roll into the post season winners of three straight and six of their last seven games. The Terps did not even break .500 going just 6-6. But the Terps have lost only one non conference game against the spread and the PAC 10 is just horrible as favorites in Bowl games. Going for brokeOn this one as I will take the Terps OUTRIGHT for a 5* Play

5* Play on Maryland +160

3* Bonus Play on the OVER

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 1:59pm
0 likes

Insider Sports Report

4* Maryland +4.5 over Oregon St. (NCAAF)

Range +6 to +2.5

4* Michigan St./Boston College (NCAAF) UNDER 56.5

Range 58.5 to 54.5

3* T.C.U. -6 over Houston (NCAAF)

Range -4.5 to -8

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:00pm
0 likes

THE SUNSHINE FORECAST

Friday, December 28, 2007

Michigan State(+3) vs. Boston College

Power Rating Projection:

Michigan State 28 Boston College 27

Statistical Projections

Michigan State 27

Rushing Yards: 131

Passing Yards: 228

Turnovers: 1 Boston College 33

Rushing Yards: 116

Passing Yards: 329

Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Michigan State 30 Boston College 29

Texas Christian(-3?) vs. Houston

Power Rating Projection:

Texas Christian 32 Houston 24

Statistical Projections

Texas Christian 30

Rushing Yards: 157

Passing Yards: 241

Turnovers: 2 Houston 21

Rushing Yards: 149

Passing Yards: 206

Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Texas Christian 34 Houston 27

Maryland(+4) vs. Oregon State

Power Rating Projection:

Oregon State 26 Maryland 24

Statistical Projections

Maryland 22

Rushing Yards: 80

Passing Yards: 221

Turnovers: 2 Oregon State 23

Rushing Yards: 163

Passing Yards: 187

Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Oregon State 26 Maryland 24

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:00pm
0 likes

Allen Eastman comp (1-7 IN BOWLS )

Take Boston College -5 over Michigan State.

The Spartans are one of many teams that have lost players to eligibility issues or violation of team rules, etc. Those missing players wont matter. BC is just a better team. This Eagles team was positioned for a BCS berth before a late season meltdown. Look for Matt Ryan and Boston College to wrap up their season in style.

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:01pm
0 likes

Mike Stone

1000 unit CFB Boston College -5 or better

he's 0-7 lmao nice fade though can u say

posted by takis28

Dec. 28 2007 2:04pm
0 likes

FERRINGO FOOTBALL

COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS

3.5-Unit Play. Take #406 Boston College (-4) over Michigan State (5 p.m., Friday, Dec. 28)

Note: Play for 3.0 or 2.5 Units at -4.5 or -5.0 or higher, respectively.

The Spartans had a chance to spring an upset over a deflated Boston College team but now that time is over. Michigan State lost two defensive starters for this game and I think that shows that they arenâ€™t as focused as they should be. Boston Collegeâ€™s seniors are the winningest group in school history and I think they go out on top. The Eagles can stop the run, neutralizing MSUâ€™s strength, and I donâ€™t think MSU can stop Matt Ryan. The Spartans are just 7-19 ATS on grass and 7-16 ATS in nonconference games. Boston College is 6-1 ATS in bowl games and 15-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. They are so much better than the Spartans that it is sick, and only a severe mental letdown by B.C. can prevent a blowout here.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #410 Oregon State (-5) over Maryland (8:30 p.m., Friday, Dec. 28)

The ACC stinks. If you want a decent system for this bowl season I say bet against the Big 10 and ACC blindly for the rest of the season. I'm not kidding. These conferences were awful in nonconference play, have been terrible in bowl games over the past two years, and are perpetually overrated. I think this game is going to be a blowout as a pretty tough Beavers team is able to overpower the Terps.

1.5-Unit Play. Take â€˜Underâ€™ 56.0 Mississippi State vs. Central Florida (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)

2-Unit Play. Take #416 Mississippi State (+130) over Central Florida (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)

3-Unit Play. Take #416 Mississippi State (+3) over Central Florida (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)

I think we have two physical teams here and two teams that will be trading blows all afternoon long. UCF isnâ€™t going to be able to run on a tough SEC team the same way they rolled over CUSA foes. The â€˜underâ€™ is 7-1 in UCFâ€™s last eight games and 11-5-1 in nonconference games. The â€˜underâ€™ is also 23-9-1 after an MSU loss and 4-1 overall for the Bulldogs.

2-Unit Play. Take #458 Kentucky (-9) over Florida State (4 p.m., Monday, Dec. 31)

Note: Play up to -9.5. No play at 10.0 or higher.

I think this one is fairly obvious. I like the Wildcats in this one before whole FSU Suspension Fiasco and I donâ€™t think the line here has properly adjusted. Kentucky beat a better Clemson team last year in their bowl game and this year they should handle the undermanned Seminoles. UK was terrible the last month of the year, but a closer look reveals that their losses were to powerhouses Tennessee (by 2), Georgia (by 11) and LSU (by 6). Two of the losses came in overtime. The ACC stinks and I think the Cats win this one by double digits.

3.5-Unit Play. Take #454 South Florida (-6) over Oregon (2 p.m., Monday, Dec. 31)

The Ducks are really on tilt. Since losing Dennis Dixon this team has gone in the tank and I just donâ€™t trust Brady Leaf (or whoever else is quarterbacking the Ducks) in this one. This USF team is battle hardened and they have faced the type of speed theyâ€™ll be matched up against in the Sun Bowl. Oregon is 1-3 ATS in its last four bowl games and 1-5 ATS in December. USF is on a 14-6 ATS run and are 5-1 ATS in nonconference games. I think the Bulls drive the final nail in a once promising Oregon season.

4-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #468 Florida (-3.5) over Michigan AND Take #472 USC (-6.5) over Illinois

2-Unit Play. Take #472 USC (-13.5) over Illinois (5 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)

The Big 10 stinks. I think both of these games are going to be ugly, ugly blowouts as the Florida and USC programs are just head and shoulders above either UM or Illinois. Also, there is no doubt that Urban Meyer and Pete Carroll will have far superior game plans with the extra preparation time. All in all I think this is one of my favorite plays of the bowl season.

3.5-Unit Play. Take #466 Missouri (-3) over Arkansas (11:30 a.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)

I think the Tigers are the better team here and that weâ€™re getting a bargain with this spread. If it had been -7 we would have likely stayed away here. But Arkansas has had a lot of trouble with pass-happy teams this year, losing to Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee this season. Missouri has lost to only Oklahoma and has handled other BCS bowl teams Illinois and Kansas. I think the Tigers make a statement and avoid the letdown. Mizzou is 8-1 ATS after a loss of 20 or more points, 11-3 ATS overall, and 5-1 ATS in neutral site games. The Hogs are just 2-5 ATS in nonconference games and just 2-5 SU in their last seven bowl games.

7-Unit Play. Take #474 Georgia (-7.5) over Hawaii (8:30 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)

I think this one gets ugly. I have nothing but confidence that Mark Richt, the master motivator, will have his Bulldogs ready to roll in this one. Hawaii is just 7-18 ATS against teams with a winning record and this game reminds me of when Boise State came to Athens in 2005 and got hammered by 35 points. Hawaii is 4-7 ATS as road dogs

4-7 as road dogs and is 10-15 ATS off the islands since 2003. Georgia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 bowl games and 3-2 ATS in its last five. I think they dominate this one from start to finish and position themselves in the preseason Top 5 for next year.

4.5-Unit Play. Take LSU (-4) over Ohio State (9 p.m., Monday, Jan. 7)

LSU isn't as good as it thinks it is. But they are still better than Ohio State. I do see a defensive struggle but I think that the difference - just like in last year's blowout - will be the speed of the Tigers. The Buckeyes simply do not matchup against that type of speed and athleticism in the Big 10. Ohio State has virtually no wins that impress me other than a blowout at Penn State. But even the Lions proved that they aren't very good. The Buckeyes simply don't deserve to be in this game, and are not in the same class as LSU. The Tigers will not blowout OSU like Florida managed to last year but this will be a convincing victory for the SEC.

NFL SELECTIONS

2.5-Unit Play. Take Chicago (+2) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.0 New Orleans at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)

Fade the "Must Win" teams in Week 17 - especially ones that are favored at home. The Saints do not play any defense at all, making them a dicey bet at any time. They had trouble in the slop of Soldiers Field last January and I think they will struggle again this year. I think both teams are going to move the ball and I know the Bears have enough pride to play this one for a win and end a long season on a positive note.

2-Unit Play. Take Carolina (-2.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)

The Bucs are going to be resting just about every key player and are already looking ahead to a matchup with the Giants next weekend. Carolina has been improving over the past month and these guys are still playing (and coaching) for their jobs next year. This is a divisional game so there is definitely extra motivation on the side of the Panthers to lay one on Tampa Bay.

2-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (+10) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)

Fade the "Must Win" teams in Week 17. The Browns are desperate but they don't stop people. San Francisco stunned Denver in Mile High to close out last year and I think they could do the same in this situation. The Browns have to be feeling a bit down after last week's crushing loss at Cincinnati. The Niners are playing better and I don't see them rolling over in this one.

2.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-6) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)

The Texans have had the Jags' number over the past three years when the two teams are playing straight. Now mix in the fact that the Jags will likely be resting their key parts in order to gear up for the postseason and Houston could hang a big number up. The Texans are looking for the franchise's eighth win of the season and that's a mark that means something to them. I think they get their win by pulling away late and laying a big one on a division rival.

1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take New England (-9.5) over New York Giants (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)

Note: If the Patriots do not cover this halftime number I, personally, will be doubling down on either the third quarter line or the second half line. I just don't see a scenario where the Pats don't destroy the G-Men, who don't have the corners to slow down the N.E. offense. Have to play it by ear.

Even if the Giants play their starters, their secondary will get shredded by the New England attack. The Pats will enter this game motivated and will try to put this one away early. They know they will have two weeks before their next game and they do not want to face the wrath of Belichick of they play a sloppy game. The Pats are going to put a bow on their perfect regular season and there really isn't much New York can do about it.

That's it for this week. Good luck.

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:06pm
0 likes

THE GOLD SHEET

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

MICHIGAN STATE (7-5) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (10-3)

Friday, December 28 Night at Orlando, FL (Grass Field)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Mich. St. 12 7-5 7-5 34 27 200 226 53-29-19 134 217 39-19-19 +5 .6 12.0

Bost. Coll. 12 9-3 6-6 29 21 106 340 46-15-27 68 268 31-8-17 +4 .7 11.2

*Michigan State 27 - Boston College 26

â€“It was a tale of two seasons for Jeff

Jagodzinskiâ€™s Boston college team, as an 8-0 start and potential BCS bowl

fizzled after a 2-3 SU mark down the stretch (1-4 vs. the points). Michigan

State, conversely, reversed its recent trend of lateseason fades and turned in

two of its best performances of the season in its final two games against bowlbound

Purdue & Penn State. The Spartans desperately needed both of those

victories in order to secure their first winning record and bowl bid since 2003.

MSU first-year HC Mark Dantonio sparked progress in mental toughness and

discipline thatâ€™s most impressive.

The Spartans have excellent offensive balance, running and passing for

more than 200 ypg. QB Brian Hoyer threw for 2594 yards & 18 TDs with only 7

ints. this season, while the inside/outside RB combination of Jehuu Caulcrick

(813 YR; 21 rushing TDs) & Javon Ringer (1346 YR; 6.0 ypc) balanced the

offense. Hoyerâ€™s favorite target is WR Devin Thomas (75 catches, 1226 yds.).

The OL features 3 fifth-year seniors, including all-conference T Pete Clifford,

and the running game benefited from Dantonioâ€™s revived use of a fullback this

season. Defensively, MSU leaves something to be desired, but all-Big Ten fifthyear

sr. DE Jonal Saint-Dic had 10 sacks.

BC has won 7 straight bowls (covering 6), but this is Jagodzinskiâ€™s first

postseason as a head coach. The Eagles have fallen from a potential national

title shot to a third-tier bowl and canâ€™t help but be disappointed at the way their

season finished. BC does own an edge at QB. Eagle sr. Matt Ryan threw for

4258 yards and 28 TDs and is considered one of, if not the, top NFL prospects

at his position. However, Ryan is not without flaws, as he threw 12 ints. in BCâ€™s

last 6 games. Soph WR Rich Gunnell (58 catches) and jr. Brandon Robinson

(53) are productive, and sr. RB Andre Callender paced the team with 72 recs.

and ran for 956 yards (4.7 ypc) & 9 scores. The defense led the country against

the rush, but overall held foes to only 20 fewer yards per game than Michigan

State, as the Eagle pass defense ranked 103rd.

Spartan HC Mark Dantonio was in charge at Cincinnati for a bowl win in â€˜04,

so he knows how to prepare. (DNP...SR: BC 3-1-1)

EMERALD BOWL

MARYLAND (6-6) vs. OREGON STATE (8-4)

Friday, December 28 Night at San Francisco, CA (Grass Field)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Maryland 11 5-6 4-7 24 22 141 203 31-23-7 148 223 29-15-12 +9 2.6 9.5

Oregon St.11 7-4 7-4 25 25 166 183 32-21-7 80 232 32-12-17 -2 -1.0 8.4

*Maryland 21 - Oregon State 20

â€”These teamsâ€™ respective 2007 campaigns

were both complicated by significant injuries. Oregon State lost its best WR (sr.

Sammie Stroughter) early in season, then saw star sr. RB Yvenson Bernard

(missed 2 of last 4 games) & top QB soph Sean Canfield (missed last 3)

sidelined down stretch. Marylandâ€™s starting QB Jordan Steffy was knocked out

of lineup after first month of campaign, but his loss wasnâ€™t as debilitating as the

series of injuries that decimated the Terrapin OL.

Each squad will be closer to full strength for this game. The steady Bernard

(more than 1000 YR in each of last 3 seasons) & the shaky Canfield (8 TDP, 14

ints.) are expected back for the Beavers. Steffy is available for Maryland

(although heâ€™s been replaced by cool soph Chris Turner), and, more

importantly, the OL has regained some traction (thanks in part to the return

of all-ACC sr. G Andrew Crummey). Also, Terp star LB Erin Henderson (122

tackles) is now in much better shape after playing through painful knee &

back injuries.

Prefer to take points with UM side that appears capable of springing small

upset. Turner is a better field general than Canfield and a better passer than

OSUâ€™s No. 2 QB, 5-11 soph Lyle Moevao. And the Terps counter Bernardâ€™s

ground presence with productive sr. RBs Lance Ball & Keon Lattimore. Also

favor â€œunder,â€ as both teams possess a speedy, hard-hitting defense (Beavers

have 42 sacks & rank No. 2 in nation vs. the rush).

(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

TEXAS BOWL

TCU (7-5) vs. HOUSTON (8-4)

Friday, December 28 Night at Houston, TX (Retractable Dom

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Tcu 12 7-5 5-6 27 19 169 219 37-19-13 109 211 26-12-12 -6 2.1 14.5

HOUSTON11 7-4 4-7 34 32 227 272 49-25-22 151 232 46-19-27 -10 -2.6 18.0

*Tcu 30 - HOUSTON 21â€”

The two most dominant platoons in this matchup

are clearly TCUâ€™s defense & Houstonâ€™s offense. Although down a bit from

2006 when it ranked 2nd overall in nation, the Horned Frog stop unit has still

limited foes to 19 ppg on 320 ypg this season. Meanwhile, the balanced

Cougars are racking up 513 ypg (4th in nation) and have put at least 34

points on scoreboard in 9 of their last 11 games.

But, while the TCU defense has been bolstered by return of sr. DE Tommy

Blake, a preseason A-A who missed several games earlier in campaign, the

Cougars enter this battle without the architect of their prolific attack. Head

coach Art Briles has already left for his new job at Baylor, taking co-offensive

coordinators Randy Clement & Philip Montgomery with him to Waco. DB coach

Chris Thurmond will serve as Houstonâ€™s interim mentor for this game.

Itâ€™s unlikely the Cougars would have been able to run roughshod over the

sure-tackling Frogs even if Briles were still around. And now, stripped of its

offensive brain trust, doubt UH will do significant damage against a swarming

TCU stop unit that has the speed necessary to keep Cougsâ€™ big-play sr. RB

Anthony Alridge (2527 YR on 7.5 ypc and 28 TDs last 2 seasons) bottled up.

â€œUnderâ€ might also be worth a look, as Frogsâ€™ own youth-laden attack is not

a finished product with still-learning RS frosh QB Andy Dalton (10 TDP & 10

ints.) at the trigger.

(04-TCU -6' 34-27...SR: Hou. 13-11)

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:07pm
0 likes

THE MAX

Champs Sports Bowl @Orlando, FL

December 28, 2007, 5:00PM EST

Michigan St vs. Boston College

Opening line: Boston College â€“3, 58

Current line: Boston College â€“3Â½, 56

Analysis by Matty Baiungo

Rookie head coaches square off here in this ACC â€“

Big Ten challenge. Michigan St head coach Mark

Dantonio took over a program that was just mired in

mediocrity under John L. Smith over the last few

years despite having NFL talent to work with. But

Dantonio turned things around instantly as the

Spartans improved their offense by 9 points per

game and 69 yards per game from a season ago.

Their offense is tough to stop as they average over

200 yards on the ground and through the air while

scoring 34 points per game on yardage of 426. And

that offense did not fall off one bit vs. good

competition as the Spartans put up the same

numbers vs. the bowl teams they faced. Their

defense played well early allowing only 15.5 points

per game over the first 4 games, but tailed off by

allowing 32.5 points per game over the last 8

games.

Boston College changed their identity after Tom

Oâ€™Brien bolted for Raleigh. BC hired former Green

Bay offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski, and

coach Jags hired Steve Logan to be his offensive

coordinator. No longer was BC that pounding

running team, but instead, they went to being an

â€œexplosion teamâ€ that aimed for big plays on every

down. BC wanted runs of 12 yards or more and

passes of 16 yards or more. And they accomplished

that with senior QB Matt Ryan. He led the Eagles to

330 passing yards per game on his way to setting

numerous school passing records. The running

game wasnâ€™t anything special though as they gained

just 3.5 yards per rush. Defensively, the Eagles

owned the best rush defense in the country allowing

a miniscule 68 yards per game on 2.2 yards per

rush. Their secondary is very weak ranking 103rd in

the country. They gave up over 330 passing yards

in 5 of their games with those opponents scoring 28,

17, 24, 27, and 42 points in those games.

You have to question the mental state of Boston

College as they could have been playing in a BCS

bowl had they beat Virginia Tech in the ACC

championship game. They were also the #2 team in

the country at one point, and a trip to see Mickey

was not in their plans. The BC fan base does not

travel all that well, so their support will be minimal.

On the other hand, Michigan St is excited to be

here. Their last bowl game was back in 2003.

Compare that to BC playing in their 9th consecutive

bowl game, and itâ€™s easy to assume Michigan St

wants to be here. This looks like a good match-up

for a high scoring game, and weâ€™ll look for this game

to go over the total as both passing attacks should

put up big numbers.

Texas Bowl @Houston, TX

December 28, 2007, 8:00PM EST

TCU vs. Houston

Opening Line: TCU â€“3Â½, 61

Current Line: TCU â€“3Â½, 59Â½

Analysis by Erik Scheponik

This yearâ€™s Texas Bowl is aptly named, and should

draw a nice little turnout with two solid instate

programs doing battle here. Houston HC Art Briles

will not coach the Cougars here, as he leaves for

Baylor. Briles turned the UH program around,

leading the team to 4 bowl games in his 5 years,

after they made only 2 in the previous 15 years. His

exciting offense did not skip a beat despite losing

Kevin Kolb to the Philadelphia Eagles after last

season. This yearâ€™s offense. Led by redshirt

freshman QB Case Keenum, was the best of Brilesâ€™

tenure here, scoring 36 points per game, and

ranking 4th in the nation at 513 yards per game. It

will be interesting to see how this team, and mainly

this high-powered offense responds, as they will be

coached by cornerback coach and recruiting

coordinator Chris Thurmond for the bowl game.

TCU had some injuries to key players early on both

sides of the ball early on and that contributed

greatly to an unimpressive 4-4 start. However, they

got somewhat healthy and finished strong, going 3-1

SU/ATS down the stretch, including a respectable

27-22 loss at BYU, and a 37-0 massacre of New

Mexico. The college football coaching carousel has

somehow avoided Gary Patterson again thus far,

and although it wouldnâ€™t shock me if he was

snatched up late in the game, he is, for now, staying

put. Pattersonâ€™s program is built on defense, and

this year is no different, as TCU ranked 16th

nationally in total defense (320 ypg) and scoring

defense (19ppg). The Horned Frogs held the bowl

teams on their schedule to only 4.3 yards per play, a

number surpassed by only USC and Ohio St. By

comparison, UH allows 6.0 ypplay to the bowlers on

their schedule.

This would be an interesting chess match if Art

Briles were on the Houston sideline. However, heâ€™s

not, and therefore I have to side with TCU. The UH

spread offense uses tons of misdirection and

specializes in mismatches and getting their

playmakers in space. The quarterback looks to the

sideline on most plays, and then makes the call. I

cannot fathom Keenum getting the same input from

the sideline now that not only Briles, but BOTH OF

HIS OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS are now at Baylor.

Patterson and his DC Dick Bumpus will have their

rugged defense prepared here, and despite their

talent, Iâ€™m not sure the Cougars offense will be able

to adjust with their current coaching situation.

TCU should improve to 4-2 SU, 4-1-1 ATS in bowls

under Patterson. TCU by 11.

Emerald Bowl @San Francisco, CA

December 28, 2007, 8:30 PM EST

Maryland vs. Oregon State

Opening Line: OSU -4, 49

Current Line: OSUâ€“5, 48Â½

Analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

Interesting matchup between a pair of teams that

had never given each other a second thought up to

now. An Oregon State offensive lineman even

claimed he wouldnâ€™t be able to find Maryland on a

map. Lyle Moevao, a squatty (5-11, 225 pound)

quarterback, won the final three games for the

Beavers and even if the frequently intercepted Sean

Canfield is healthy, Maevao will get the call here.

Veteran running back Yvenson Bernard is the

Beavers primary offensive threat, but he had his

knee scoped before the Oregon game and is no lock

to play here. The physical Beaver offensive line is a

strength, and their defense has great speed.

Even though Oregon State appears to have gotten

stiffed, with Oregon going to the Sun Bowl despite a

loss to the Beavers, OSU played in El Paso and didnâ€™t

want to go back, so theyâ€™re excited to be in this

contest. Oregon State was the third place team in

the Pac Ten, and thatâ€™s certainly more impressive

than a mid-level ACC finish by a 6-6 team that was

3-5 in conference play. But Oregon State was

fortunate to play both Cal and Oregon when the

Bears and Ducks were extremely beat up, and lost

to Cincinnati, Arizona State, UCLA, and USC, all by

double digits. Maryland was truly devastated by

injuries this season and will be significantly

healthier. Like Oregon State, theyâ€™re excited to be

here, as the players preferred this destination to

Charlotte and Boise. Oregon State will have more

fan support in this baseball stadium, but crowd noise

shouldnâ€™t be an issue.

Ralph Friedgen has been a great developer of

quarterbacks over the years (he got a team

quarterbacked by Stan Humphries to the Super

Bowl, developed Joe Hamilton and George Godsey

at Georgia Tech and Shaun Hill here at Maryland)

but the Terps have struggled at that position over

the past few years. Chris Turner came out of

nowhere to be effective at the position after Josh

Portisâ€™ suspension for academic dishonesty and

Jordan Steffyâ€™s concussion. Turner was effective

when he got decent offensive line play, but

struggled when the line was injury riddled. Turner is

a California native (his dad was the original

drummer for Ratt) and will have dozens of people in

the stands at this one.

Oregon Stateâ€™s statistical advantages in this game

are a big shaky due to catching teams at good times

and Marylandâ€™s injuries. With the Terps return to

health and Bernard not at 100% for the Beavers

weâ€™ll call for the upset. Maryland by 3.

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:08pm
0 likes

THE SPORTS MEMO ( 7-1 IN BOWLS THIS YEAR !!)

Boston College -3.5 vs. Michigan State O/U 57 Recommendation: Boston College

Friday, December 28, 5 pm EST (ESPN) Orlando, Fla.

If you combine the team (staring at a major bowl bid almost all season)

and personal disappointments of both BC and senior signal caller

Matt Ryan (didnâ€™t even finish in the Heisman top five), youâ€™d come to

the immediate assumption that this middle of the road bowl game is

not one that theyâ€™ll be extremely excited to play in. But this is a blue

collar, upper class laden group with a recent history of cashing tickets

in this very type of bowl contest. In this decade, Boston College

has gone 6-1 ATS in their postseason appearances with all being of

the pre-New Yearâ€™s Day variety. Add in the fact that first-year head

coach Jeff Jagodzinski will be very motivated to come away with a

victory in his first bowl appearance and you can see that the group

from Chestnut Hill will likely show up focused. With the motivation and

desire to win being the same from the opposing Michigan State Spartans

and their first-year head coach Mark Dantonio, figure this to be

an early bowl season tilt where everybody goes hard for the full 60

minutes. With the ever important focus factor handicapped as even

and no home field advantage involved, the fundamentals become the

single most important aspect to be examined here. For both defenses,

this will be a tremendous challenge as Michigan Stateâ€™s well balanced

offense along with BCâ€™s prolific passing attack are very tough to stop.

The Spartans averaged 200.3 rushing yards and 225.9 passing yards

per game this season but the success of the ground attack is absolutely

crucial for them every time they take the field. The rushing tandem

of Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick was sensational this year and

when theyâ€™re going well, they help the MSU passing game immensely.

Junior quarterback Brian Hoyer has put together an impressive set of

statistics throwing for 2,594 yards and completing 61.5% of his passes

while throwing a mere seven interceptions. This is however, a run first

team and if the ground game doesnâ€™t produce, this teamâ€™s scoreboard

production goes down significantly. That could be an issue in this contest

as Boston College boasts the nationâ€™s No. 1 rushing defense allowing

a mere 68.1 rushing yards per game. They are tough enough

to stand up to Michigan Stateâ€™s steamroll type of running game and

they swarm to the football very well. Their secondary led by safety

Jamie Silva and shutdown cornerback DeJuan Tribble are opportunistic

playmakers. The Spartans limited wide receiving corps which

features just one dominant target in junior Devin Thomas could find

things exceptionally tough against this group. That wonâ€™t be the case

for Matt Ryan and his arsenal of receiving options. The diversity of this

Eagles passing game which can dissect an opponent short, mid range,

or deep, will be a major concern for Michigan State all day. Michigan

State sack artist Jonal Saint-Dic and his running mate at defensive end

Ervin Baldwin (17.5 combined sacks and 32 combined tackles for loss)

are critical to this pass defense which places a heavy burden on freshman

tackle Anthony Castonzo and the Eagles offensive front. Expect

Boston College to have all the answers in this matchup and cover the

short number against the game but outclassed East Lansing bunch.

TCU -3.5 vs. Houston O/U 60 Recommendation: TCU

Friday, December 28, 8 pm EST (NFL Network) Houston, Texas

The numbers Houston put up this season offensively can be quite

intimidating. There is no secret however, the strength of their

schedule and the lack of defense being played by the opposition

had a lot to do with the output. Of the 11 I-A teams Houston faced,

the average total defensive ranking was 94th, with six of those

teams taking up the bottom 19 spots nationally. TCU on the other

hand played a much more respectable slate, facing five defenses

that ranked in the top 50, including four in the top 26. TCU ranks

16th in the nation in total defense and two of Houstonâ€™s three

worst games offensively came against 28th ranked Alabama and

62nd ranked Oregon. In those two games, the Cougars were outscored

a combined 78-51. Therefore, while Houston has the weapons

and the system to move the ball, we donâ€™t expect the weekly

40-plus points they were accustomed to putting up within C-USA

to happen. The Horned Frogs once again sported a hefty defense

this season, but it was the lack of offense that kept them from

contending in the Mountain West. After averaging close to 200

yards per game rushing the last five seasons, the Horned Frogs

were left hanging as star running back Aaron Brown spent most of

the season on and off the injury report. With him out, things didnâ€™t

come easy but good news came in the form of sophomore Joseph

Turner (5.2 yards per carry) who closed out the year with a 226-

yard effort against San Diego State. The passing game showed

some signs of promise with a handful of 300-yard games from

freshman Andy Dalton. However, with 121 more rush attempts than

pass, the focus is clear. The key in this game is going to be the

battle of turnovers. In Houstonâ€™s four losses, they committed 15.

No coincidence either those games featured three of the top four

defenses Houston faced. TCU isnâ€™t statistically dominant at taking

the ball away, but again, this is a quality of defense the Cougars

have seen little of. Another key stat to look at with both these

teams is offensive and defensive red zone production. Houston

allowed a ridiculously high 76% touchdown rate when opponents

were inside the 20. TCU allowed touchdowns just 44% of the time

when in the red zone. Those stats tell us Houston is likely to settle

for more FGs than the customary TD they had such an easy time

converting on playing the weak defenses of C-USA. And while TCU

is no great shakes with the ball, they averaged 32.6 points per

game their last six contests facing defenses than almost all had

more prowess than what theyâ€™ll see against Houston. Weâ€™ll also

address former head coach Art Briles leaving his post to take

the less than sexy Baylor gig. While we donâ€™t always agree that

a coach leaving has an impact, it is one more negative aspect to

what once was a bright season prior to the devastating 56-7 loss

to Tulsa â€“- which kept Houston out of the conference championship

game. Defense rules the day in this one as TCU makes scoring

a lot tougher on Houston than in games past. Weâ€™ll lay the points

Maryland vs. Oregon State -4 O/U 48 Recommendation: Oregon State

Friday, December 28, 8:30 pm EST (ESPN) San Francisco, Calif.

6-6 record or not, the Maryland Terrapins came way with some impressive

performances in 2007. They won at then-undefeated Rutgers as a

17.5-point underdog. They backed that up with a win against a respectable

at the time Georgia Tech squad and then closed out the year with

a shutout win at NC State â€“- a game in which the winner headed to a

bowl and the loser stayed home. All in all, Maryland played nine games

as an underdog and won four of them. Quarterback Chris Turner proved

his worth this year after Jordan Steffy was plagued with injuries. Originally

the back-upâ€™s back-up, Turner managed to complete over 75% of

his passes in two huge wins over Boston College and NC State and gave

the run-oriented Maryland offense some balance. His role in this game

is extremely important given that Oregon State boasts one of the best

rush defenses in the country. Running backs Keon Lattimore and Lance

Ball both tallied 1,500 yards and 25 TDs combined. It was a grind it out

affair on the ground for most of the season as the Terps averaged over 4.1

yards per carry only once this season vs. I-A competition. For the second

straight year, Oregon State quietly put together a solid campaign. The

Beavers endured multiple key injuries but managed to win six of their last

seven SU and ATS. The quarterback situation is up in the air with Sean

Canfield and Lyle Moevao in the mix. Canfield missed the season finale

vs. Oregon with a shoulder injury, but regardless of who plays, the two

combined for a 10-to-20 TD-to-INT ratio making running back Yvenson

Bernardâ€™s health an interesting factor (he is expected to play). Defensively,

we see a huge advantage with OSUâ€™s defensive line. Not only are

they stout at stopping the run, but they can get to the quarterback with

42 sacks on the season. That is bad news for a suspect Maryland offensive

line that allowed 38 sacks. While Maryland did come away with some

marquee victories, the bottom line is they finished the season 6-6, with a

win over I-AA Villanova and just three league wins. The offense as a whole

was marginal at best with national rankings of 65th in rushing, 78th in

passing and 88th in total offense. There were more than enough sub 20-

point performances against the ACC for us to recognize the Terps as a

weak offensive club. Oregon Stateâ€™s resume was clearly more impressive.

They were outclassed by USC and Cincinnati and had a major letdown vs.

UCLA, but outside of those three games, they were impressive against

teams of better quality than what theyâ€™ll face in Maryland. Initial questions

linger, however, as to what type of intensity the Beavers will bring

into this one. The PAC-10â€™s bowl alignment is notoriously bad and there

has to be a sour taste in heading to the Emerald Bowl after finishing 6-3

in one of the better conferences in the country. To their credit, head coach

Mike Riley has done an excellent job at preparing his squads for postseason

play with a 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS mark. Marylandâ€™s Ralph Friedgen, too, is

well versed in good postseason performances, outscoring his last three

bowl opponents a combined 95-17. Still, the matchup favors the Beavers

who are capable of shutting down the Maryland rushing game and forcing

a first-year quarterback in Turner to make plays he is not accustomed to

making. The line in our opinion is very favorable as weâ€™ll back the Beavers

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:08pm
0 likes

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS ( 6-2 SO FAR ) -->. 3-2 SIDES/ 3-0 TOTALS

BOSTON COLLEGE (10-3) MICHIGAN ST (7-5)

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

This will be the 6th meeting and Boston College holds a 3-1-1 SU & 1-1 ATS record. This is BCâ€™s 9th

consecutive bowl game winning 7 in a row SU (6-1 ATS). BC played in the then-Carquest Bowl in â€˜94 &

defeated Virginia 31-13. Michigan St returns to the post season for the first time S/â€™03. They are 7-10 SU

(5-8 ATS) all-time in bowls and this is their first trip to this bowl. Dantonio is 1-0 SU & ATS in the bowls as

a HC with a 32-14 win over Marshall in the â€˜04 Ft Worth Bowl. This is Jagodzinskiâ€™s first year as a HC &

first bowl game. The Eagles have won 10 gms in B2B years for the 1st time in BC history. These 2 have

faced 2 common oppâ€™s TY (BG & ND) and the Eagles outscored those oppâ€™s 41-19 while the Spartans had

a 30-16 edge. BC has faced 7 bowl caliber teams (Virginia Tech twice) and outscored those oppâ€™s 27-24

and outgained them 436-358. MSU had the tougher overall sked facing 9 bowl caliber teams outscoring

them 34-31 and outgaining them 427-388. MSU has 15,000 alums who live in Florida and should be

well represented as they finished the year winning their last 2 to earn this bid. BC fans are known as

poor travellers. The Eagles are 4-11 ATS as an AF (0-2 TY) while MSU was 3-0 ATS as an AD TY. The

Eagles were in the ACC Championship game on Dec 1 while MSU has not played since Nov 17th. BC

has 8 seniors and 14 upperclassmen starters while MSU has 10 seniors and 17 upperclassmen.

Even though BC finished #2 in the ACC and #14 overall they were still passed up by the Chick-fil-A

and Gator Bowls. This season BC had a lot of â€œfirstsâ€ beginning with a first year coach, 8-0 record for

the first time since 1942, beat Miami for the first time since 1984 and won their division & played in the

ACC Championship game for the first time. They can send the seniors out with just 12 losses in their 4

years, the winningest class ever. BC is led by the ACC POY & Unitas Award winner QB Matt Ryan (#3

NCAA total pass yds), who broke Doug Flutieâ€™s BC season record for TD passes. RB Callender is not

only the top rusher but leads the teams in recâ€™s. The OL avgâ€™s 6â€™6â€ 292 with 2 senior starters. BC has only

allowed 19 sks TY (3.1%) but also only avgâ€™d 105 ypg rush (3.6). BC is led by the nationâ€™s #1 rushing D

which allowed only 68.2 ypg (2.2). The DL avg 6â€™3â€ 274 with just 1 senior starter and the defense posted

34 sacks. Herzlich & Dunbar (hampered by sprained ankle) are the top 2 LBâ€™s with a combined 16.5 tfl.

BC is #24 in scoring D, however MSU scored 83 pts in the last 2 gms (Purdue & Penn St). The Eagles

have our #63 pass eff D (#33 NCAA) allowing 261 ypg (60%) with a 19-21 ratio. The secondary is led

by Thorpe finalist FS Silva. BC has our #50 sp tms. The loss of LS Jack Geiser (knee) became costly in

the ACC title game when his backup was slow on a couple of snaps and 2 kicks were blocked.

The 3rd time may finally be the charm as Mark Dantonio is the third MSU HC hired since Nick

Saban left. Dantonio brought the Spartans some much needed toughness and discipline and scrapped

the teamâ€™s spread to go with a power running game. Luckily Dantonio had the horses to do it as speedy

Ringer and bruising Caulcrick combined for 2,159 yds and 27 TDâ€™s. QB Hoyer steadily built confidence

in his first year as a starter and finished #2 in the B10 in pass eff. WR Thomas went from a little used JC

transfer to the teamâ€™s go-to receiver. TE Davis played both ways and finally lived up to his vast potential.

The huge OL (6â€™6â€ 310 avg) started 5 upperclassmen and paved the way for 4.4 ypc (4.0 in â€˜06) although

they did allow 30 sks (8.4%). MSU is one of 9 NCAA teams to avg 200 ypg both rushing & passing and is

#17 in our off rankings. The Spartans have struggled for years to develop a pass rush but that changed

under ex-DC Dantonio as MSU finished #12 in the NCAA with 37 sks. The DL was anchored by â€œThe

Sack Masterâ€ DE Saint-Dic who had a league record 8 FF. True frosh LB Jones led the team in tackles

in an impressive debut. The secondary was a weak spot with preseason All Conf FS Wiley benched at

times and MSU playing true frosh and ex-WRâ€™s at CB. MSU finished #79 in pass eff D and #50 in our

overall defensive rankings. MSU finished #83 in STâ€™s with KR Thomas (28.1) the lone standout.

The line may look surprising with a 10-3 BC team only favored by a FG vs a 7-5 Mich St squad.

BC did drop the ACC title game and throughout this entire season they felt they were heading to a BCS

bowl. This team lived on TOâ€™s but only had 3 int in the L/6gm of the season and are now without top

sackman DL Albright. Michigan St won their L2 both as underdogs and all 5 of MSUâ€™s losses were by

7 pts or less with 2 coming in OT. MSUâ€™s emotions are also the polar opposite of BCâ€™s as they thought

they were headed to Detroit to play a MAC team and now get a trip to Orlando and Disney World.

FORECAST: MICHIGAN ST (+) 31 Boston College 30 RATING: 2★

TCU (7-5) HOUSTON (8-4)

TEXAS BOWL

This is the 2nd Texas Bowl and the 25th meeting between SWC/CUSA foes who last met in â€˜04. UH has

lost L/7 (1-6 ATS) in the series. This is TCUâ€™s 2nd trip in 3 years (former Houston Bowl) and their 9th bowl

trip in 10 years. This is the Cougars 18th bowl (7-9-1 all-time) but they have not won a bowl game S/â€™80. HC

Briles took the Cougars to 4 bowls in the L5Y but left for the Baylor job and DB cch Chris Thurmond will be

the interim coach as new HC Sumlin will remain with Oklahoma for the bowl. He is considering hiring other

asstâ€™s to help coach in this one as both co-OCâ€™s Montgomery and Clements joined Brilesâ€™ staff. TCU clinched

a bowl bid battling back from a 17-0 deficit vs SDSt in their finale, turning out the 3rd largest offensive output

in school history. Houston was looking to repeat as CUSA Champs but got hammered by Tulsa 56-7. LY the

Cougs lost the Liberty Bowl 44-36 (+5) to S Carolina. TCU is 3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS under HC Gary Patterson in

the post season. The Cougs faced 4 bowl caliber teams TY going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, outgaining them 440-416

but being outscored 43-23 with 3 of those gms being their lowest pt ttls of the yr. TCU took on 5 bowl caliber

opps and went 2-3 ATS outscoring foes 21.8-21.6 and outgaining them 344-304. UH went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS

in bowls under Briles (all as dogs), but this is just a few miles from campus. The Cougs are 5-3 ATS as an AD

(1-2 TY) and 10-5 ATS on grass & have played at Reliant Stadium twice, a 10-7 loss to Rice in â€˜04 (-4) and a

38-24 loss to Oregon (+7â€™) in â€˜05. TCU was 0-3 TY as an AF and is just 10-18-1. They are however, 19-12-1

ATS on grass the L/4Y and 10-7-1 the L/2Y as a fav of a FG or more. The Frogs have 16 upperclassmen (9

Srâ€™s) in the starting lineup. Houston has 9 seniors among their 19 upperclassmen starters.

TCU was the media darling before the ssn, having the Preseason Off and Def POYâ€™s. Unfortunately, DL

Blake faced medical probs and never played to his potential (missed parts or all of 5 gms). The Off POY Brown

was injâ€™d and DNP in 2 of the 1st 3. He returned vs SMU but his production fell as he was bothered by a knee

inj and coaches made the decision to put the ball in RB Turnerâ€™s hands. Turner also missed parts of 6 gms but

over the L/4 avgâ€™d 109 ypg rush (5.2) inc a career high 226 yd vs SDSt. Brown broke his ankle vs UNLV and will

not be available. After the AF loss, TCU decided to go with the QB who was not turning the ball over. Both QBâ€™s

Marcus Jackson and Andy Dalton saw PT, and Patterson was true to his word, as each was pulled after a TO.

The OL avg 6â€™5â€ 296 with just 1 Sr and has allâ€™d 21 sks (5.1%) and paved the way for 169 ypg (3.. Overall they

finished with our #57 rated off. Hiding in the shadows of Blake for the L/3Y was DL Ortiz (3x 1st Tm MWC), and

he stepped up ranking #28 in the NCAA with 15.5 tfl while leading our #16 def. The D allâ€™d just 109 ypg rush

(3.0) and tallied 36 sks. David Roach leads our #8 pass eff D that allows 211 ypg (53%) with a 12-16 ratio. TCU

has our #1 ranked STâ€™s unit led by PK Chris Manfredini (tied #13 in NCAA in FGâ€™s) and P Derek Wash (#13 net).

PR Brian Bonner ranks #18 in the NCAA in PR and the Frogs give up 17.4 ypr on KR and 5.8 ypr on PR.

The Cougars have avgâ€™d more than 438 ypg in 4 of the L/5Y. They are one of the most balanced teams

in the NCAA avg 240 ypg on the ground and 273 thru the air. After losing QB Kevin Kolb to the NFL, Briles

instituted a 2 QB system with rFr Keenum and soph Joseph. Keenum saw a majority of the action down

the stretch and ranks #16 in NCAA in pass eff. WR Avery ranks #4 in the NCAA in ypg rec and has legit

4.2 spd. RB Anthony â€œQuick Sixâ€ Alridge is another legit 4.2 guy, finished #13 in NCAA in all-purp yds. The

Cougs OL avg 6â€™3â€ 291 led by RT Akeroyd and RG Bloesch and have 2 Srâ€™s on the front line. The OL opened

up holes for 240 ypg rush good for #10 in NCAA and the 5.1 ypc are the most S/â€™99 but they allâ€™d 29 sks

(7.3%). The DL avg just 6â€™3â€ 276 led by CUSA sack leader Hunt and the Houston D usually wins the 4Q

allowing just 54 pts on the yr. The LB corps is led by the duo of Allen & Lubojasky who help plug holes as

Houston allowed 3.9 ypc rush which is its lowest S/â€™02. The secondary is led by SS Schwartz who missed

LY due to inj but has bounced back and leads the team in tkls. SS Kenneth Fontenette has a tm leading 4

int as the Cougs are ranked #47 in our pass eff D allâ€™g 224 ypg (51%) with a 28-13 ratio. Overall the Cougs

have our #43 offense, #78 def and #84 STâ€™s with KR Avery #16 in the NCAA.

Houston was thinking CUSA championship but they were mauled vs Tulsa 56-7 and are now dealing with

the mass exodus of their coaching staff to Baylor. TCU recovered after losing both the pressn off & def POYâ€™s

for a period of time and did win 3 of their L/4 with the loss being a cover at bowl bound BYU. This game is a

classic matchup of off vs def and in LYâ€™s bowl TCU held N Ill to just 60 yards of TOTAL off. The Horned Frogs will

battle for next season while the Cougars are playing for interim coaches and havenâ€™t won a bowl since 1980.

FORECAST: TCU 35 Houston 24 RATING: 2★

OREGON ST (8-4) MARYLAND (6-6)

EMERALD BOWL

This is the 1st meeting and only the 4th time MD has played a P10 tm in school history with only one in

a bowl (Aloha Bowl vs Wash â€˜82). This will be MDâ€™s 1st bowl in the state of California but they do have 5,000

alumni between LA & San Fran. This will be MDâ€™s 5th bowl game in 7 yrs and their 22nd bowl appearance

(9-10-2). The Terps have won their L/3 bowl gms, outscoring those oppâ€™s 95-17. Friedgen is 3-1 SU & ATS in

bowl gms which is the most wins by any MD coach. LY MD defeated Purdue 24-7 (+1) in the Champ Sports

Bowl in a game the Terps had a 429-285 yd edge. The Terps have faced 8 bowl caliber tms and were just

3-5 SU & ATS, being outscored 27-24. MD is 42-33 ATS on grass under Friedgen. OSU played the tougher

schedule TY (#11-44). After winning 7 of their final 8 LY to earn a Sun Bowl bid (39-38 win over Mizzou),

the Beavers continued their 2H surge again TY winning 6 of their L/7 (6-1 ATS) to earn their 7th bowl in 9

seasons. OSU has won their last 3 post season trips (2-1 ATS). The Beavers faced 7 bowl caliber teams

and were 3-4 SU & ATS being outscored by an avg of 30-21. OSU has 13 senior starters incl 8 on def giving

them the experience edge as the Terps have 8 senior starters with just 3 on the offensive side of the ball.

The Terps outscored their oppâ€™s 25-22 but were outgained 356-351. The Terpsâ€™ offense (#53 ranking),

which has been decimated by injuries (only 3 players have started all 12 gms), avgâ€™d 424 ypg their final

3 games. QB Turner has been solid since stepping in for Steffy who was injâ€™d vs Rutgers. RBâ€™s Lattimore

(#1 ACC scoring TDs) and Ball became just the 2nd duo in MD history to each post 10+ rush TDs in the

same season. WR Heyward-Bey, a frosh AA in â€˜06, leads the Terps in recâ€™s. OGâ€™s Crummey and Thomas

were out with fractured fibulas, while LT Burley has missed quite a bit of time w/an ankle inj. Crummey

did return for the season finale. MD allâ€™d 38 sks TY (12%, #107 in NCAA). The Terps defense has our #30

ranking. The DL avg 6â€™4â€ 293 with 2 Sr starters but the defense only has 23 sk, while allâ€™g 137 rush ypg

(3.9). LB Henderson led the team in tkl in all but 2 gms despite being hampered by inj the final 7 wks. MD

is +7 in TOâ€™s. They are ranked #70 in our pass eff D allâ€™g 219 (60%) with a 13-12 ratio. MD had to replace

their starting P, K and top KR TY and their only returning specialist, PR Oquendo, was lost prior to the BC

game (knee inj) but they do have the #2 KR def in the NCAA. MD finished with our #48 ST unit.

After heavy competition at the QB position during fall camp, HC Riley decided to go with a QB

rotation for OSUâ€™s first 2 gms of the ssn. QB Canfield became the full-time starter in wk 3 but struggled

with accuracy issues early throwing a nation leading 13 int through the AZ gm. He then suffered a shldr

inj 3 gms later vs USC allowing bkup Moevao to assume starting duties. Moevao was able to guide

OSU to 3 straight wins (3-0 ATS) to end the year and may have earned the starting job for this one

(Canfield possibly available). RB Bernard became the #2 all-time rusher in school history after a 3rd

consec 1,000+ yd ssn and should return for the bowl after missing the Civil War with a knee inj. The

WR position took a big blow when standout Stroughter (74 rec, 17.5 in â€˜06) took a Med RS forcing true

frosh WRâ€™s Rodgers and Catchings to accept bigger roles behind starters Brown & Powers. The OL

avg 6â€™3â€ 309 and paved the way for 167 ypg rush (4.1) led by C DeVan & RG Schuening (49 consec

starts). OSU allowed 31 sks TY (7.5%) & finished with our #49 overall offense. The DL avg 6â€™2â€ 272

with 4 Sr starters. OSU uses a heavy rotation on the line keeping players fresh as they allâ€™d 75 ypg

(2.1) on the ground finishing #2 in the nation. The LB spot also consists of 3 senior starters with team

captain Doggett leading the way on a tm that finished with the #6 overall def. The secondary finished

#10 in pass eff D allowing 238 ypg (53%) with an 18-20 ratio. Former Groza winner Serna had another

fine year and after LYâ€™s starting P quit the tm just prior to the ssn, Serna took on double duty for the

first time since HS. OSU finished with our #86 ST unit.

Maryland suffered as much attrition as any team in the country and it showed as they dropped 3 of

their L/5 games. Five weeks of healing will have this team in the best shape theyâ€™ve been in all season.

OSU had to adjust to losing their top WR as well as finishing the year with their backup QB. Maryland

is the better offensive team while OSU has a shutdown defense. We side with Friedgenâ€™s offense to be

able to dissect the Beaversâ€™ defense. The Fridge has won his L/3 bowls by an avg of 32-6 and should

get enough out of his defense that is facing a QB unit with a 10-20 ratio.

FORECAST: MARYLAND (+) 23 Oregon State 20 RATING: 3★

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:08pm
0 likes

Jon Campbell FROM COVERS 1-7 bowl record LMAO

Champs Sports Bowl

Michigan State vs. Boston College (-3, 56 Â½)

This gameâ€™s a toughie. Iâ€™d like to take BC, but Iâ€™m worried itâ€™ll be in for a letdown by missing out on a BCS bowl game. Itâ€™s not like the school will have any fans there to help it out. Michigan State is a good team that has a bit of a deceiving record this season. Its players will want to finish the season on a high note.

Pick: Michigan State +3

Texas Bowl

TCU vs. Houston (+4, 60 Â½)

Expect a few cowboy hats in the stands for this one. You can also expect a Cougars offense thatâ€™s a little out of sorts after head coach Art Briles jumped ship for Baylor at the end of the season. Briles called all the plays for a Houston team that averaged 36 points per game this season.

Pick: TCU -4

Emerald Bowl

Maryland vs. Oregon State (-4 Â½, 49)

The Beavers were one of the hottest teams in the nation down the stretch with six wins and covered spreads in their last seven games.

Pick: Oregon State -4 Â½

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:09pm
0 likes

THE SPORTS REPORTER

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

Citrus Bowl Stadium -- Orlando, FL

BEST BET

MICHIGAN STATE over BOSTON COLLEGE by 13

You think BC wanted to go to Disney World after the ACC title game? Not according to

Eagle linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar who said of the loss to V-Tech, â€œItâ€™s a setback in terms of this program, our team, and our personal goals.â€ Other players mentioned how they

wanted the Orange Bowl more than they wanted the ACC title. Their consolation prize is

a pre-January 1, non-BCS game against a highly motivated team looking for a signature

bowl win. How bad does Michigan State want this? Well, first-year head coach

Dantonio noted that his program was looking to â€œearn back respect.â€ He is going to

great lengths to ensure that his team is prepared. He even cranked up the heat in their

inside practice facility to 82 degrees in an attempt to simulate the heat and humidity of

central Florida. He added, â€œWe canâ€™t re-create ideal weather conditions, but we can

maintain an up-tempo practice pace and do additional post-practice running for conditioning

purposes.â€ On the playing field, Boston College has struggled when they couldnâ€™t

protect all-world QB Matt Ryan. In losses to FSU, Maryland, and V-Tech, Ryan was

pressured early and often. Makes sense, given that 75% of their offensive production

comes via the air. Michigan State ranked 14th in sacks this year with 36, so the field

goal favorite will likely be warding off more pressure. As for Dantonioâ€™s offense, the

Spartans really get things started with the rushing attack (4.7 ypc), but they do man a

solid aerial game as well, which will be key against one of the nationâ€™s best run defenses.

That same defense put the offense in good spots by generating turnovers this year

â€“ including 21 picks. Bad news for Eagle backers â€“ MSU turned it over only 13 times

on the year â€“ meaning that those short fields may not be there. Sparty certainly will be

there â€“ on the field, in the stands, and in the win column. MICHIGAN STATE, 30-17.

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:09pm
0 likes

WINNING POINTS ( 2-6 IN BOWLS)

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

(December 28 at Orlando)

MICHIGAN STATE over BOSTON COLLEGE by 2

Since we are still dealing with calendar 2007, and not something with a BCS

moniker attached, the concept of â€œwho wants it moreâ€ must be one of the mitigating

factors, and it may well be the strongest factor of all â€“ in a game in which the

favorite does not have a personnel edge over the underdog, give us the points with

a side that will bring a lot more enthusiasm to the table. For Michigan State to get

here in the first season under Mark Dantonio is a major reward, particularly

because the Spartans had to win it on the field. After a draining three-week stretch

in which they lost at Ohio State by seven, at Iowa in double overtime, and then a

bitter 28-24 home defeat vs. Michigan after they led 24-14 in the fourth quarter,

it would have been easy to quite. Instead they Spartans rebounded to win resoundingly

at Purdue the following week, and then rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat

Penn State in the finale that not only secured this bid, but creating a great deal of

momentum to carry over. Boston College can not say the same. In early November

the Eagles were thinking National Cahmpionship, and a Heisman Trophy for Matt

Ryan. In early December they were thinking a BCS bowl. Now they not only have

lost those lofty targets, but also have to regenerate enthusiasm with a shorter

amount of time available. While Ryan is special, B. C. did not gain 100 rushing

once against a bowl team this season, and that means a one-dimensional attack that

is easier to defend with the ample prep time that the Spartans have. With a likely

edge in fans as well (there are two-for-one packages being sold for fans from the

state, who can watch both Michigan State and Michigan over a four day period on

this same field), they win this one outright. MICHIGAN STATE 29-27.

TEXAS BOWL

(December 28 at Houston)

T.C.U. over HOUSTON by 8

While bowl games are supposed to be rewards for seasons well played, rarely has an

invitation become as much of a dark cloud as it has for Houston. The Cougars do

not get to take any kind of trip, and have been left at the altar not only by head

coach Art Briles, but by co-offensive coordinators Philip Montgomery and Randy

Clements as well, with all three departing for Baylor. That becomes more important

for this program because for Houston the turnaround under Briles was about

wide-open offensive schemes. Now they hang around their dorm rooms waiting for

the Kevin Sumlin era to begin, and despite having outstanding talent in the skill

positions on offense there are major tactical concerns as they face the best defense

they have gone up against all season. It hardly creates a scenario conducive to them

playing well, and interim coach Chris Thurmond will have an awkward time keeping

them interested over the Christmas period. There is also an intriguing conference

aspect that does not seem to be priced into this line, as we harbor a belief that

four Mountain West teams might have been good enough to win Conference USA,

with these Horned Frogs one of them. Their offense caught fire down the stretch,

and the defense will be much more physical at this line of scrimmage than what the

Cougars have been accustomed to this season. T.C.U. 34-26.

EMERALD BOWL

(December 28 at San Francisco)

OREGON STATE over MARYLAND by 7

Mike Rileyâ€™s Beavers may have been held together but duct tape at various times,

but all they did was battle, week after week. A Pac 10 campaign that opened disastrously,

as a 19-0 lead in the opener vs. Arizona State turned into a defeat and a 14-

12 lead in the 4th quarter vs. U.C.L.A. reversed itself into a stunning 40-14 final

score, ended with a surge that we believe will carry over here â€“ they went 6-1 in

their last seven league games, losing only at Southern Cal, and gutting out that final

win at Oregon with a back-up QB and without key RB Yvenson Bernard. Now

they get healthy again in the skill positions on offense, and a defense that was rock

solid down the stretch (even in the loss at Southern Cal they only allowed 16 first

downs and 287 yards) gets a chance to control the flow against a Maryland team

that lacks playmakers. While Ralph Friedgan got the Terrapin job because of his

offensive acumen, as each year goes by his reputation becomes tarnished. His attack

finished #88 in the nation in total offense this season, showing no big play ability

either overland (65th in rushing yards) or through the air (78th in passing). It

could only add up to a 6-6 record, courtesy of non-conference walkovers vs.

Villanova and Florida International, and an offense that did not perform well at all

from behind may find itself in that very role here, with Oregon State having a

sparkling 127-16 edge over the opposition in the first quarter this season, with the

defense allowing only one touchdown in 12 games. OREGON STATE 27-20.

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:09pm
0 likes

POINTWISE ( 0-8 !!!!!!!!)

EMERALD BOWL

AT SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA

OREGON STATE (8-4) vs MARYLAND (6-6)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

8:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Oregon St ... 46.0 .. 28-23 .. 19-17 .. 167- 75 ... 204-238 .. + 1 . Oregon St

Maryland .... 44.8 .. 25-22 .. 19-19 .. 147-137 .. 203-219 .. + 7 . by 9.5 Pts

ANALYSIS

Okay, which Maryland Terrapin shows up here, the one which posted RY edges

of 239-82 over Rutgers (27-pt cover), 249-10 over NCSt (39Â½-pt cover), &

135-45 over BC (14-pt cover), or the one which was outrushed 353-89 by

West Virginia (2-pt ATS loss), & 249-97 by Clemson (9Â½-pt ATS loss)? Sure,

the Mountaineers & Tigers are Top Ten caliber squads, but so are Rutgers &

BC, which climbed as high as 10th & 2nd in the nation, respectively. Thus,

altho the Terps wound up the season as a 50/50 team, they are much more

than that. Just 2 losses by more than a TD, with 5 of their 7 spread losses by

just 2, 3Â½ (OT), 5, Â½, & Â½ pt. And that includes taking on no less than 8 bowl

teams. In their annihilation of 17Â½ pt chalk Rutgers, the Terps held a 36:57-

23:03 time edge, & in their rout of NCSt, which got them to "bowl eligible"

status, they held a 37:55-22:05 time edge. A true "under-the-radar" squad.

The Oregon State Beavers have also been a generally unnoticed team, never

cracking the Top 25, due mostly to their 2-3 start, which saw them being belted

for 34, 44, & 40 pts. Oh, by the way, they had a cumulative minus 11 TOs in

those 3 early setbacks, 2 of which resulted in spread losses of 34 & 28Â½ pts.

Their horse, of course, is RB Bernard, who has topped the 1,000 yd mark for

the past 3 seasons, but whose 4.4 ypr average this season, is hardly anything

special. He is expected to play, despite undergoing knee surgery. When the

dust settled on the regular season, the Beavers ranked 2nd best in the entire

nation in rushing "D", with an unmatched 2.13 ypr stop unit. Both are highly

competitive bowl squads, but that Beav rush "D" may be the final determinant.

PROPHECY: OREGON STATE 27 - Maryland 17 RATING: 6

TCU (7-5) vs HOUSTON (8-4)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

8:00 PM EST -- NFL NETWORK TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

TCU............. 37.5 .. 27-19 .. 22-17 .. 169-109 .. 219-211 .. - 6 . TCU

Houston ..... 34.9 .. 36-30 .. 26-18 .. 240-143 .. 273-224 .. - 8 . by 7.4 Pts

ANALYSIS

A couple of old Southwest Conference & Conference USA squads meet in the

2nd annual Texas bowl, & fittingly, both are from the Lone Star State, altho the

Cougars of Houston, obviously, have the decided home edge. For the Frogs

of TCU, this marks their 9th bowl appearance in the last 10 years, and the 6th

trip in the 7 years of Patterson's reign, since taking over for the departed Dennis

Franchione, who worked miracles his 3 years at the helm, before leaving

for Alabama in '01. This year's Frog squad is successful, to be sure, but a

definite drop from the past couple of seasons, in which TCU compiled a record

of 22-3, along with a 17-7 log vs the spread. No, those teams hardly needed

wins in their final 2 games of the year, to achieve a winning record, which was

the case this season. They lost 7 starters from LY's potent offense, including

QB Ballard & his .905 career winning percentage. Dalton? Over 2,200 PYs,

but just 10 TDs & 10 INTs. Thus, a team which really has impressed in only 1

of its dozen games, that brilliant 37-0 shutout of a decent New Mexico squad.

The Coogs are one of more than a few squads, which own the double edged

sword of a highly productive offense, only to be dragged down by a vulnerable

defense. The nation's 4th best (& splendidly balanced) "O", which has topped

26 pts in 32 of their last 37 games, but a "D" which has allowed more than 26

pts in 10 of its last 12 lined contests. Check RB Aldridge with 1,568 yds, along

with a 6.4 ypr average. But Houston enters this contest on an 0-4 spread run,

by an average of 16.5 ppg ATS. And the Cougars have allowed 54, 42, & 44

pts in their 3 bowl games since '03. Back-&-forth, but can't back Houston "D".

PROPHECY: TCU 41 - Houston 31 RATING: 4

BOSTON COLLEGE (10-3) vs MICHIGAN STATE (7-5)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

5:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Bost Coll .... 44.5 .. 29-20 .. 24-19 .. 107- 68 ... 330-263 .. + 3 . Bost Coll

Mich St ....... 42.2 .. 34-27 .. 21-18 .. 200-134 .. 226-217 .. + 5 . by 1.1 Pts

ANALYSIS

If Utah's 6-game bowl winning streak ranks 2nd currently, which team ranks

1st? Right, the Eagles of Boston College, who've won 7 straight holiday games,

covering 6, with their only miss by 5Â½ pts in LY's 25-24 miracle win over Navy

in the Meineke Bowl. And they did have to survive another near miraculous

comeback by Boise in the '05 MPC Computer Bowl. Led by QB Ryan, who

threw for 4,258 yds & 28 TDs, the Eagles climbed to the #2 spot in the nation,

& stayed there for 3 weeks, before being upset by Florida St & Maryland, on

consecutive Saturdays. Altho their running game was nearly non-existent down

the stretch (63 ypg in their final 6 outings), they still managed to meet Virginia

Tech in the ACC title game. But they couldn't repeat their earlier heartstopping

effort vs the Huskies, when Ryan threw a pair of TD passes in the final 2:11,

losing 30-16. No running "O", but an equally stingy running "D", which finished

as the nation's best, allowing the above 68 ypg. Can the balanced Spartans,

who haven't graced the holiday scene since the '03 Alamo Bowl, & who haven't

won a bowl game since the '01 Silicon Valley Classic, dent that defense? Well,

truth be told, only Pittsburgh & Ohio St were able to hold the MSU offense in

check, & that includes overcoming a 24-7 deficit vs PennSt & the Lions' 9th

ranked "D", in their regular season finale. Ringer & Caulcrick have combined

for 2,159 RYs & 27 TDs, while QB Hoyer ranks 2nd best in the Big Ten among

QBs (61.5%). Defensively, the Spartans are hardly anything special, with a

32.5 ppg "D" in their last 8 games. But the dog is plus 55Â½ pt ATS in the last

10 games involving BC. We'll grab the pts, in what could be a classic match.

PROPHECY: MICHIGAN STATE 27 - Boston College 26 RATING: 3

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:09pm
0 likes

EROCKMONEY ( 4-4 SO FAR)

Staying with the theme of going against Conf. USA. This is a home game for Houston, but TCU is the superior team. TCU played well down the stretch after struggling early in the season. TCU won't have a letdown of falling short of possible BCS expectations and will continue their fine play down the stretch.

Pick: TCU by 13

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 7th)

12/28 - Champs - Michigan St. (+3.5) v. Boston College

BC went from National Title to BCS berth to Champs. Will this team be motivated for this game? I like Michigan St. coming in and being very happy to be in this game after the last few years. Ryan is an outstanding QB and will be a top 10 pick in next years draft. BC has played over their heads all season and will have a letdown in this one.

Pick: Michigan St. by 4

Status: Recommended Play (rank - 1st)

12/28 - Emerald - Oregon St. (-4.5) v. Maryland

Oregon St. has really played well down the stretch and will over match the Terps in San Francisco. Oregon St. will have the crowd and an overall edge in talent. The ACC had a down especially compared to the powerful PAC 10. Maryland has shown up big in their last three bowl games and the public seems to be riding the Beavers, which makes me nervous. However, I'll join the crowd and ride the Beavers.

Pick: Oregon St. by 9

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:10pm
0 likes

DR. BOB ( 4-4 )

LEANS:

Boston College (-3 Â½) vs Michigan State: I lean slightly with Michigan State at +3 or more.

Tcu (-3 Â½) vs Houston: The bowl situation favor Houston, but the math favors TCU pretty significantly and TCU is certainly the side I like.

Oregon State (-5) vs Maryland: Iâ€™ll probably pick Oregon State by 4 points, so Iâ€™ll lean slightly with Maryland. ( ????????) FADING HIMSELF ??

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:10pm
0 likes

MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: 6-2 SO FAR

Champ Sports Bowl

Boston College by 7

Texas Bowl

TCU by 1

Emerald Bowl

Maryland by 10 *BEST BET*

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:10pm
0 likes

Pointwise Phones

3* Mich. St.

4* Air Force, Fresno St., South Florida

3* Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Colorado

2* Hawaii, Kanas

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 2:12pm
0 likes

10 NOTES for the BOWLS.''''

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Houston Nutt left Arkansas to become the head coach at Mississippi. Defensive coordinator Reggie Herring will be the interim coach for the Hogs in their Cotton Bowl match-up against Missouri. The players loved Nutt: "It's sad that it had to end like this," star running back Darren McFadden said. "Coach Nutt, I love playing for him. He's a great coach." Center Jonathan Luigs said: "We came in, we were here for him, went through everything he went through. Just him going out like this is kind of sorrow, but it's something we have to accept." And with totalitarian (according to some of the Atlanta Falcons) Bobby Petrino taking over in 2008, the players will be going from one extreme to the other.

2. Chan Gailey got fired at Georgia Tech despite never having a losing season and going to a bowl all 6 years in Atlanta. But it's not really about football according to AD Dan Radakovich: "Obviously, he didn't agree with the decision, but he understood there's a business aspect to this. As far as Xs and Os, Chan is a very good coach. But there's more to it now. College football is more than just Xs and Os, especially in the competitive market where we are." Just say it Dan, it's all about the Benjamin's, baby! Defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta will be the interim coach for the Humanitarian Bowl clash with Fresno St. Tenuta wanted the head job, "I've auditioned my defense for the last six years. You've seen how they played." But Tenuta did not get the job. Navy's Paul Johnson did.

3. And speaking of Navy, they filled Johnson's spot with assistant head coach Ken Niumatalolo. He will coach the Midshipmen against Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl on December 20th. Even though Johnson gets the credit, Niumatalolo is the man behind Navy's 351-yard rushing attack. "I don't really care whose offense we call it. We're going to use it because it works," he said. "I've been involved with this offense for 20 years. I've called the plays for this offense before. I learned a lot from Paul about the various wrinkles and how to make adjustments." And the players are ecstatic that Niumatalolo got the job: "I think it's a great move. Personally, I'm happy because we've got a coach who really knows the option," junior quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada said. Navy shouldn't skip a beat without Johnson.

4. Lloyd Carr retired from Michigan, and he will coach is final game in the Capital One Bowl against Florida. And contrary to media reports, his team absolutely loves him: "It was emotional," safety Jamar Adams said. "My eyes welled up." "We're just trying to go out with a bang and send him out with a victory," wide receiver Mario Manningham said. "It makes it special, knowing this is his last game, and God knows the last time he won a bowl game; you know what I'm saying? We've got to send him out right, with a victory." Rich Rodriguez will be the new coach in Ann Arbor after leaving Morgantown.

5. And Rodriguez will also be missed by his players. "The players are upset because he said he's going to leave before the bowl game," James Dykes, the father of West Virginia defensive tackle Keilen Dykes said. "At least coach them in the bowl game. James just called to tell us and I know he is very upset about this." And their practices haven't been spirited either. "We tried to be excited," Keilen Dykes said. "We're all hurting right now, but we can't cry." Added Steve Slaton: "I'm pretty sure the next guy will do a good job but Coach Rod was West Virginia." No bowl coach has been named yet for the Mountaineers Fiesta Bowl game vs. Oklahoma.

6. Before Rodriguez made his final decision on Michigan, he sought out his good friend; Florida's head coach Urban Meyer for advice. Guess Meyer gave him the go-ahead, and I found this quote amusing by Meyer after being asked if Rodriguez would leak the secrets of the spread offense: "If I hear that," Meyer said, "he won't be a very good friend of mine."

7. Jeff Bower resigned from Southern Miss after 17 years on the sidelines. Reports are saying that he was forced out, and that assumption comes from Bower's comments: "I want you to know there's a lot of fight left in Jeff Bower, and I am not done yet." He will still coach against Cincinnati in the Papajohns.com Bowl, and his players will be ready: "The coaches are still coaching hard," linebacker Gerald McRath said. "They're not going to lie down. They teach character. They teach how to handle adversity. And that's what this is. Are you going to lie down and point fingers, or are you going to step up?" "We owe it to Coach Bower and this staff," McRath said. "He's done so much for this program. He's helped build this program. He's the reason why I'm here in the first place." "I'm glad he's staying for the bowl," center Rick Thompson said. "He's just a great coach, a great person. That's the way it should be, going out and coaching the last game." Oklahoma St offensive coordinator Larry Fedora will take Bower's place in 2008.

8. Enough of the coaching moves. Central Florida will play Mississippi St in the Liberty Bowl. Both teams have sold out their allotment of tickets, but there's a huge discrepancy in the number. UCF sold 10,000 while Miss St sold 30,000. The game is a sellout, and it appears it will be a pro-Miss St crowd in Memphis. With just a week of workouts before heading to Memphis, UCF head coach George O'Leary isn't too happy. "We really don't get that many extra practices as everyone thinks.? I think what the bowl does is prolong your ability to get some younger guys some more practice."

9. 25 Florida St players will be suspended for their Music City Bowl against Kentucky. But mom's the word on who they are. And heir apparent to Bobby Bowden, offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, isn't opening his mouth either. "No comment until the head man makes a comment. I'm not in position -- that's for him." Smart move by Jimbo considering Bowden's son, Terry, is being rumored for other head coaching jobs. The real head-scratcher in all of this is the line only moving up 2 points despite this debacle being out for a few days now.

10. Now that coach Fran is out at Texas A&M, what about the inside information for his newsletter subscribers? Do they get a pro-rated refund on their $1,200 considering they still have a game to play against Penn St in the Alamo Bowl? Fran's last words after resigning: "We have made many lasting friendships." Too funny.

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 3:20pm
0 likes

----------------------------FRIDAY SERVICE REPORT------------------------------

SERVICE REPORT

ATS Lock Club................12*Bowl Game Of The Year: TCU

.......................................5*Maryland

.......................................3*Boston College

A-Play.............................VIP: TCU/Hou(U)

Big 10 Sports...................Bowl Game Of The Year: Michigan State

Dave Cokin......................Window Play: TCU

........................................Under The Hat: Oregon State

........................................3*Boston College

Doctor Bob.......................Boston Coll, TCU & Oregon State

Director Sports.................Boston Coll, TCU & Maryland

Frabk Magliosa................Michigan State

Gold Sheet.......................Top: Maryland

.........................................Regular: Michigan State

Guarantee Picks..............Michigan State

Jim Feist.........................Inner Circle: TCU

.......................................Personal Best: Oregon State

.......................................5*Boston College

Joe Gavazzi(PPP)...........3*Maryland/OSU(U)

.......................................2*Maryland & TCU

.......................................1*Michigan State

Las Vegas Sports............10*TCU

Lenny Stevens................10*Michigan St, TCU & Maryland

Marc Lawrence...............3*Maryland, Boston Coll & TCU

Northcoast.......................3*TCU

........................................1*Maryland & Michigan State

Randy Radtke..................Michigan State & Maryland

Rocketman......................Michigan St, TCU & Maryland

Sports Authority..............TCU

Sports Bank.....................400*Oregon State

Sports Doctor..................50*TCU/Hou(U)

SPorts Unlimited.............3*Maryland/OSU(U)

Texas Sports Brokers......10*Houston

VIP Lock Club..................500*Michigan State

Wayne Root.....................Millionaire: Houston

.........................................No Limit: Maryland

........................................Chairman Of The Board: Michigan State

Windy City.......................9*Michigan State

posted by phantom

Dec. 28 2007 5:16pm
0 likes

DR BOB ( 6-5)

3 Star Selection

***Connecticut 27 Wake Forest (-3.0) 21 (at Meineke Bowl - Charlotte) 10:00 AM Pacific, 29-Dec-07 Connecticut was destroyed by West Virginia 21-66 in their regular season finale, but that shouldnâ€™t take away from the great season that the Huskies had. U Conn was 9-3 for the season and their only losses by more than 1 point were to a very good Cincinnati team and to West Virginia. The other loss was by just 1 point to Virginia and the Huskies have wins against Louisville and South Florida to their credit. Wake Forest, meanwhile, didnâ€™t beat a team all season that is rated higher than Connecticut in my ratings. The best team that the Demon Deacons beat was Florida State, which is about the same as the Huskies, and Wakeâ€™s only other victories against better than average teams came at home in overtime against Maryland (when Maryland was a below average team with Steffy at quarterback) and at Vanderbilt.

The strength of this Huskies team is a defense that gave up 19 points or less in 9 of their 11 games with only good offensive teams Cincinnati (27 points) and West Virginia scoring 20 points or more against them. Connecticutâ€™s defensive weakness is stopping good running teams, but Wake Forest is not a good running team (4.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and Deacons are not likely to take advantage. Wake Forest isnâ€™t a good passing team either, as Riley Skinner averaged 5.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and heâ€™ll have a tough time throwing against a very good Connecticut pass defense that yielded just 5.0 yppp (to teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average defense) while picking off 22 passes. Wake Forest faced 4 better than average defensive teams this season (Boston College, Virginia, Clemson, and Vanderbilt) and the Demon Deacons averaged only 4.2 yppl in those 4 games while not topping 4.4 yppl in any of them. I donâ€™t see Wake Forest having much success against Connecticutâ€™s solid defense either.

Wake Forest also has a good defense, as the Demon Deacons allowed just 4.7 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. Connecticut is nothing special offensively, as the Huskies are average running the ball and slightly worse than average throwing it (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but quarterback Tyler Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions all season, which is why the Huskies are better than average in compensated scoring (27.8 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 25.5 points to an average team). My math model projects 4.7 yppl for both teams in this game, but Wake Forest hasnâ€™t gained more than 4.4 yppl against a better than average defense this season so I think the Huskies will do a better job of moving the football even though my math model projects the yardage as even. Connecticut has an edge in projected turnovers but Wake Forest has a special teams edge. Overall, my math model favors Wake Forest by Â½ a point, so the line value favors U Conn and I think the Huskies will win straight up.

Connecticut applies to a 37-8-1 ATS Bowl situation while Wake Forest applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation. Try not to overreact to Connecticutâ€™s last game (that 21-66 loss to West Virginia), as teams that lost their previous game by more than 38 points are actually 11-2 ATS in bowl games and teams that gave up 65 points or more in their final regular season game are 4-1 ATS in bowls. The fact that Connecticut gave up 66 points in one game and still allowed an average of just 18.6 points for the season tells you how good the Huskiesâ€™ defense was for most of the season.

Iâ€™ll take Connecticut in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-1.12 odds or less) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-1.13 odds or higher) to +1 point.

Penn State (-5 Â½) vs Texas A&M: I lean slightly with Penn State.

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 1:47pm
0 likes

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS (8-3 SO FAR ) --> 5-3 SIDES/ 3-0 TOTALS

These teams met in 2006, a 24-13 WF win (+6â€™) and Conn upset Wake on the road in â€˜03, 51-17 as a

9 pt dog. Conn is 2-5 ATS the L/7 vs teams from the ACC with 2 straight covers. This is the Huskiesâ€™ 2nd

bowl ever after they defeated Toledo in the â€˜04 Motor City 39-10 (+3â€™). The Huskies went from 4-8 LY to

9-3 tying for the most regular ssn wins in the programâ€™s 109 year history, its 1st ever national ranking and

won a share of BE Title. A soft non-conf schedule, 2 blown calls and favorable home field weather were

contributing factors. Conn has played 6 bowl caliber teams with only 1 outside of their conf (UVA). They

were dogs in 5 and went 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS despite being outscored 27-20 & outgained 441-318 benefitting

from their +13 TO margin. WF also faced 6 bowl caliber teams going 3-3 SU & ATS being outscored

28-26 & outgained 366-362. Conn was 2-2 as an AD TY but is 4-11 since 2004. Conn fans travelled well

their last bowl (10,000+) & sold out TYâ€™s allotment of 12,500 tickets. WF should have the crowd edge with

17,500+ tix sold and the bowl is just over an hour away. The Huskies have 4 senior starters among 13

upperclassmen while WF has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 9 seniors. These 2 played 2 common oppâ€™s

TY (Duke & UVA) and WF outscored them 29-27 but was outgained 347-326 while UC outscored them

31-16 and outgained them 371-251, however both teams lost to UVA 17-16. This will be WFâ€™s 8th bowl

appearance but marks the first time WF has been to bowl games in consecutive years. The Deacons are

4-3 SU all-time in bowl games (3-3 ATS) incl their Orange Bowl loss LY. This is Grobeâ€™s 7th year as HC

and his 3rd bowl appearance (1-1 SU & ATS). WF is just 4-7 ATS as an AF and 5-4 ATS on grass since

installing turf LY (1-3 TY). Conn plays on grass & was 2-9 as an AD from â€˜04-â€™06 but went 2-2 TY.

Conn is the most recent surprise out of the BE or this yearâ€™s Rutgers of 2006. The Huskies offense has

our #71 ranking, avg 358 ypg & 28 ppg. Edsall began the season returning 8 starters on offense but 6 were

sophs and a 1st year JUCO QB. Lorenzen transferred from Palomar CC where he was a JCAA. Last yearâ€™s

QB DJ Hernandez switched to WR. Lorenzen didnâ€™t put up the flashiest numbers but manages the offense

very well. RB Brown started the first 6 gms but was hampered by injury & platooned the rest of the year with

Dixon. The Huskies got better WR play TY from Hernandez (2 QBâ€™s on field), Kanuch & NFL prototype Jeffers.

The OL avg 6â€™3â€ 301 & has paved the way for 165 ypg rush (3.9) but allâ€™d 28 sks (8.5%). UCâ€™s defense has

our #51 ranking allâ€™g 19 ppg, 346 ypg with 28 sacks. The DL avg 6â€™2â€ 267 allâ€™g 159 ypg (4.4) rush. The heart

of the defense is at LB led by Sr Lansanah. The defense is tied for #7 in the NCAA in TO margin & tied for #3

in int with 22. They have our #21 pass eff defense avg 188 ypg (58%) with an 11-22 ratio. The Huskies have

our #58 STâ€™s ranking. Edsall experimented with Tyvon Branch in 2005 as a KR where he fumbled 3 times vs

WV but the test panned out this year as he finished #21 in NCAA & had 2 TD returns.

After starting the year 0-2, the Deacons won 8 of their L/10. Under Grobe, WF is 19-7 SU over the L/2Y, the

most successful 2 yr stretch in school history. However, after being the ACC Champs LY & making their appearance

in the Orange Bowl, this is a step down. WF has a somewhat conservative passing game, led by QB Skinner, as

they have a high completion rate (72%), but avg just 191 ypg pass. Skinner (missed 2 gms w/shldr inj), however,

threw more than twice as many int TY (13) as he did as a rFr LY (5). They do have a big-play threat at WR in

Moore (#1 rec/gm in ACC) and rFr TB Adams (ACC Rookie POY) really stepped up and finished 3rd in the ACC

rushing. The OL, led by AA C Justice, avg 6â€™4â€ 309, allowing 26 sks (7.3%) and 143 ypg (3.3). Overall, WF has

our #70 ranked off. The DL, with 3 Sr starters, avg 6â€™3â€ 278 and is allowing 109 ypg rush (3.1) but the D (#38) had

just 27 sks. WF has our #22 pass eff D allowing 242 ypg (54%) with a 20-18 ratio. CB Alphonso Smith (#1 NCAA

in int) and LB Curry have combined 6 IR TD and WF has scored 10 non-off TDâ€™s (#1 NCAA). The Deacons have

the edge on sp tms with our #28 ranking. K Swank is just the 2nd player in WF history with more than 100 PAT.

Conn comes in with the better record but they are still an overrated team. A bad call vs Temple and a

missed fair catch pen vs Lâ€™ville would drop their record to 7-5 plus UC was helped by weather in 2 other gms.

WFâ€™s HC Grobe deserves his accolades as the Deacons have 19 wins the L/2 ssns which matched their

regular season record in the previous 4 yrs combined. After rumors of him leaving for Ark, Grobe signed

an extension with WF. While the units are comparable it is a rarity that a tm gets shutout on our checklist

as every category is either even or gives Wake the edge. Conn is second to last among bowl teams having

been outgained by 123 ypg vs bowl caliber opponents. Wake has always been an outstanding underdog

but theyâ€™ve now gone 5-1 ATS as a TD or less favorite. FORECAST: WAKE FOREST 27 Connecticut 20 RATING: 2★

This is the 2nd meeting between these two schools with the previous meeting a 35-28 MSU (-4â€™)

win in â€˜97. CUSA Champ UCF is off a 44-25 win vs Tulsa avenging their 2005 championship loss. For

CUSA members this is the bowl invite you want because it means you finished #1 in the conference

& after missing out on a bowl game LY the Knights are excited. This is just the 12th season in IA ball

for the Knights and their 2nd ever bowl game as they lost the 2005 Hawaii Bowl to Nevada 49-48

(+2â€™) in OT on a missed xp. HC George Oâ€™Leary was the TYâ€™s CUSA COY (named Bobby Dodd Natâ€™l

COY in â€˜00 at GT) and is 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS in bowl games. SEC COY Croom is coaching his first

bowl and this is MSUâ€™s first bowl trip since â€˜00. MSU sold out their allotment of 30,000 tickets while

UCF is having trouble selling their 10,000 ticket allotment (7,500 sold as of presstime). UCF is 4-3

SU and 5-2 ATS vs bowl teams TY while MSU is 3-5 SU & 4-4 ATS. UCF is 1-8 ATS as an AF &

MSU is on a 7-2-1 ATS run as an AD with 4 outright upsets the L/2Y. UCF has 6 senior starters &

14 upperclassmen & MSU has 7 seniors & 18 upperclassmen. UCF is just 3-10 ATS vs non-conf

foes under Oâ€™ Leary. Both teams beat UAB TY with MSU having a greater margin of victory (30-13

to 45-31) but UCF outgained UAB 506-343 while MSU was actually outgained 288-284.

UCF has our #44 rated offense and QB Israel really matured the 2H of the season during their 7

game win streak avg 177 ypg (67%) with a 10-4 ratio showing great poise. RB Smith had a Heisman-like

season leading the NCAA in both rushing and TDâ€™s. Smith exploded during a 7 game streak breaking

200 yds 3xâ€™s including a career high 320 vs UAB all as a junior (likely to test the NFL waters). Smith

who broke Marcus Allenâ€™s single ssn rush attempt record is now just 181 yds from breaking Barry

Sandersâ€™ single season rush record of 2,628 yds and has avg 122 yds in the 1H of games. The OL

with 2 senior starters avg 6â€™4â€ 304 opening holes for 243 ypg (5.1), both school records, and allowed

17 sacks (5.3%). With all the talk of Smith the D seems to have been forgotten but after allâ€™g 116

points (58 ppg) to EC and USF they allâ€™d just 149 points (21.3) in the L/7. The DL is led by 2 seniors

and avg 6â€™3â€ 288 and leads CUSA in rush ypg allâ€™d at 131 (3.7) and the D tallied 38 sks. The LB corps

took a hit in the offseason when they lost WLB Richards to inj and in the CUSA Champ game lost #4

tklr Hogue to a broken hand so they will be thin. The secondary is the best in CUSA and ranks #12 in

our pass eff D (248 ypg, 56%, 26-23 ratio) with their 23 int tied for #1 in NCAA. Overall the D ranks

#56. UCF has a huge edge on sp tms (#9-103) with solid PK and return gms.

Croom said his team performed ahead of schedule this year reaching a bowl with a 7-5 record.

Returning starting QB Henig was injâ€™d in the 3rd gm and 2nd string QB Riddell suffered a torn ACL

in gm 5 which left true frosh Carroll in charge of MSUâ€™s #92 offense. Carroll started out throwing 137

passes without an int, but finished with a 5-6 ratio in the L/3 gms and was replaced for 2 drives by

Henig in the Egg Bowl. RB Dixon was in Croomâ€™s doghouse at various times during the ssn losing

his starting job to FB DucrÃ© at mid-season but regaining it the following gm after rushing for 152 yds

& 3 TD vs UAB. With the inconsistency at QB, top WR Burksâ€™ numbers fell almost by 50% from LY.

MSUâ€™s #40 defense allâ€™d 159 ypg rush (4.2) but gave up over 200 yds rush in 5 gms TY and MSU

finished #34 in our pass D rankings (182 ypg, 54%, 20-15 ratio). FS Pegues is a converted CB who

led the MSU comeback vs Ole Miss with a 75 yd PR TD late 4Q.

Though MSU is excited to be here and will have a huge crowd edge UCF has the better skill players,

a solid D, strong sp tms and would love to knock off just their 2nd SEC tm in school history (1-12 SU,

7-5 ATS). This is only the third time UCF has had more rush yards than pass yards led by All-American

RB Kevin Smith. Miss St will hear about his talents for the next several weeks and will be ready for the

challenge as he is just 181 yards from breaking the all-time rushing record. The Bulldogs have one of

the fastest defenses the Knights have faced and their outside speed can contain Smith. Although MSU

has not been to a bowl since 2000 their tough SEC schedule and crowd edge plus the indignity of being

an underdog against a school which has been in IA ball for only 12 years makes them the play.

FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI ST (+) 27 Ucf 23 RATING: 2★

These traditional powers last met in PSUâ€™s only Alamo Bowl appearance in â€˜99 when the Lions shutout

the Aggies 24-0. PSU leads the all-time series 2-1. Despite being located just 160 miles from San Antonio,

this is only A&Mâ€™s 3rd Alamo appearance (2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS) and the game is a sellout thanks to their

fans. Paterno is 22-10-1 SU & 20-9-1 ATS in bowls while the Aggiesâ€™ interim HC Darnell is 0-1 SU & ATS.

The loss came to Wash 34-7 in the â€˜89 Freedom Bowl when he coached Florida after Galen Hall was

fired. Hall is currently PSUâ€™s OC. Both teams are disappointed to be here with A&M in transition between

the end of the Franchione era while new HC Sherman finishes his NFL ssn. Paterno admitted after the

ssn that his team shouldâ€™ve won 10 gms & that he made some coaching errors. A&M has played 8 bowl

caliber tms (4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS, outscored on avg 31-28). PSU also played 8 bowl eligible tms (4-4 SU &

2-6 ATS, outscoring them on avg 26-22). A&M was 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road while PSU was 2-3 SU

& 1-4 ATS. Lions were favored in all AGâ€™s & their lone cover was at Temple where 2/3 of the fans were in

blue. A&M was 3-4 ATS as a dog pulling upsets vs Neb & Tex. The Aggies are 5-3 ATS on turf L/2Y while

Lions are 0-5 ATS. The veteran A&M has 13 Sr starters and 21 upperclassmen! PSU has just 3 Sr starters

with 16 upperclassmen. A&M last played on Nov 23 while PSU finished the season 6 days earlier.

After losing 4 games to Top 25 teams in â€˜06, Penn St was considered a contender for the B10 Title. QB

Morelli actually posted better #â€™s than Kerry Collins in his 1st year as a starter and much was expected of the

Sr. Morelli posted better overall #â€™s in â€˜07 but finished his career failing to throw a TD pass vs either OSU or

Mich. PSU started the year with RBâ€™s Kinlaw and Scott who avgâ€™d 136 ypg. When Scott was suspâ€™d, powerful

rFr Royster stepped up and the new duo avgâ€™d 169 ypg. The Jr trio of WRâ€™s (Williams, Norwood & Butler) are

steady but none are taller than 6â€™0â€. TE Quarless spent the year in the staffâ€™s doghouse. Despite replacing #5

overall NFL DC LT Brown, PSU had a better rushing ypc (4.6 to â€˜06â€™s 4.3) and allâ€™d 20 sks (23 in â€˜06). Overall

PSU is #32 in our offensive rankings. The Lions had to replace 5 starters on D (#13) and the results were

inconsistent. DE Evans showed true star potential but injâ€™s and suspâ€™s were a problem as DT Odrick (ankle),

DE Hayes (knee), DT Koroma (foot) and DT Baker (susp) all missed time. Koroma should play in the bowl

while Baker is ?. LBâ€™s Connor and Lee were the NCAAâ€™s top duo. The fine front 7 helped the Lions finished

#2 NCAA in sks and #6 in rush D. Three DB starters returned but top cover CB King spent as much time off

the field defending his play than making plays on it. VHT Wallace started the L/2 after Sargeant started the

1st 10 at the other CB spot. After finishing â€˜06 #16 in pass eff D they finished #74 in â€˜07.

A&M persevered through a ssn filled with many distractions winning their last game vs rival Texas to

secure a bowl berth. The Aggies at one point during the ssn were 3-0 & ranked #20 in the country until

a complete collapse vs Miami, Fl. They did win their first 2 Big XII gms and stood at 5-1 & alone atop the

South Div & then went into a meltdown going 1-4 in a 5 wk stretch being outscored by 11 ppg & outgained

by 113 ypg. A&M did end the ssn with 4 ranked opponents, but took care of UT and Franchione resigned

shortly after the gm (told players prior). In their 1st 8 gms the Aggies ran wild avg 260 ypg (5.3), but vs

those ranked foes to end the yr were held to just 127 ypg (3.4), which was 89 yds & 1.4 ypc below their

season avg. QB McGee accounts for 62% of the Aggiesâ€™ offense. A&M has 2 solid RBâ€™s and when Lane

has 15+ carries A&M was a perfect 5-0 (14 or less 2-5). Goodson is a Reggie Bush RB type. A&M is

ranked #98 in the NCAA in passing off, but did surprise Texas with 362 yds (66%) which was a ssn high

& the most passing yds in 33 gms. The OL avg 6â€™5â€™â€™ 309 and is senior filled with 4 up-front & all 5 are

returning starters. The DL is led by DE Harrington while the LB corps is the oldest in the country with

Dodge & Tupe. Aggies are ranked #88 in our pass eff def allowing 264 ypg (63%) with a very poor 21-7

ratio (#100 in NCAA). Texas A&M is ranked #38 on offense, #45 on defense & #40 on STâ€™s.

Texas A&M finished a tumultuous season and lost 4 of 5 games during the Franchione fiasco but

did finish by knocking off Texas for a 2nd straight year. Penn St is also disappointed as they were a B10

frontrunner to start the season. This is a one-sided matchup with a powerful Nittany Lion defense facing

a one dimensional offense. The Lions front seven can dominate the run game of A&M and the Aggies

have had no success when being forced to throw. Penn St HC Paterno is a â€œbowl geniusâ€ and will have

his team prepared and focused even in this lower tier bowl.

FORECAST: Penn St 30 Texas A&M 16 RATING: 3★

Pay Service Bowl Records (as of 29 Dec)

Totals Plays (8-3): single 1-2, double 7-0, triple 0-1

Sides: Star Rated Plays 3-0

Opinions 2-1 regular, 1-4 top

System Plays (Sides) 3-1

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 1:49pm
0 likes

Asa 7* BOWL GOY

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alabama -3 1/2

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 1:51pm
0 likes

Sebastian

20* NY/NE under

20* Wake

20* Penn St.

50* Miss St.

NBA

10* Ind

20* Atl

20* Char

NCAAB

10* Memphis

10* Wich St.

10* LSU

20* Alabama

20* Dayton

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 1:52pm
0 likes

SUNSHINE FORECAST

COLLEGE BOWL GAMES

Saturday, December 29, 2007

Connecticut(+3?) vs. Wake Forest

Power Rating Projection:

Connecticut 26 Wake Forest 23

Statistical Projections

Connecticut 20

Rushing Yards: 124

Passing Yards: 166

Turnovers: 2 Wake Forest 20

Rushing Yards: 155

Passing Yards: 152

Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Connecticut 24 Wake Forest 20

U-C-F(-3) vs. Mississippi State

Power Rating Projection:

U-C-F 33 Mississippi State 24

Statistical Projections

U-C-F 31

Rushing Yards: 230

Passing Yards: 153

Turnovers: 2 Mississippi State 17

Rushing Yards: 103

Passing Yards: 157

Turnovers: 2

** Statistical edge to U-C-F

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Mississippi State 35 U-C-F 27

Mississippi State (1 star)

Penn State(-4) vs. Texas A+M

Power Rating Projection:

Penn State 30 Texas A+M 22

Statistical Projections

Penn State 34

Rushing Yards: 201

Passing Yards: 258

Turnovers: 2 Texas A+M 19

Rushing Yards: 133

Passing Yards: 176

Turnovers: 2

** Statistical edge to Penn State

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Penn State 29 Texas A+M 21

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 1:55pm
0 likes

BIG AL

At 8:15 pm, our TV Game of the Year is on the NY Giants plus the points over New England, as the G-Men fall into 86-34, 31-6, 12-0, 113-64, 27-6, 19-1 and 22-1 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 12-0 ATS system. That system plays on certain .535 or better teams in their Last Home Game who are matched up against a foe off a SU win, provided our home team is NOT favored by 3 or more points. A lot is being made of the fact that the Giants might rest some of their starters, but regardless, the Patriots are overpriced here. Consider that the teams New England has been favored by more than 2 TDs on the road this season include only Miami (-15.5), Buffalo (-15.5), and Baltimore (-19). Suffice it to day, the Giants are a much better club than either of those three aforementioned teams. Also, since 1980, .900 (or better) teams are huge money-burners in the season's final 5 games, going 11-22 ATS, including 6-15 ATS on the road. Take the points with New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss any of my College Football Bowl Winners. We're off to a 4-1 start on our Bowl selections, and will have our 5* College Football Game of the Year real soon. We're 36-12 our last 48 College Football 5* Plays (100% this Year), and we cashed our 5* Game of the Year last season on Iowa over Texas, so don't miss this huge play.

At 8 pm, on ESPN 2, our selection is on the revenging Dayton Flyers, who lost to Pitt at the Petersen Events Center last season. And, since 1990, revenging home dogs of +5 or less points are a 93% ATS play against non-conference foes off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. With Jamie Dixon's Panthers off back to back wins over Duke and Oklahoma State, we'll fade the Panthers tonight, and play on Dayton, who has won nine straight after dropping its 2nd game of the season at George Mason. Among the Flyers' victims during this nine-game win streak was then-No. 14 ranked Louisville, who Dayton beat 70-65 on the road as 12-point underdogs. Dayton has outscored its foes by an impressive 9.3 ppg during its win streak, and is led by senior guard Brian Roberts (18.2 ppg this season, and 21 in the game vs. Pitt last season). This will be an especially tough game for the Panthers to win, as it will be their first without senior Mike Cook, who tore his ACL in the waning moments of regulation vs. Duke. Cook not only was responsible for 10.4 ppg for Pitt, but he provided invaluable leadership as well, and his absence will be felt tonight. Take the points with Dayton. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big winner today in College Hoops. It's out of a 14-0 ATS angle, and it's on TV.

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 1:56pm
0 likes

WAYNE ROOT

Chairman - Patriots

Millionaire - U Conn

Money Maker - Texas A&M

Chairman - Drake

Millionaire - Wisc GBay

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 1:56pm
0 likes

NORTHCOAST

Late Phone Selections:

4* Miss St +3 vs UCF (Liberty Bowl) @ 4:30 pm ET Top College Play of the Week

(System 1: Miss St 80 pt play #12 of 32 and System #2 Miss St 65 pt play #3 of 32)

Other Star Rated Selections:

No selections at this time

Top Opinions

Penn St -5 vs Texas A&M (Alamo Bowl) @8:00 pm ET

(System 1: Tex A&M 68 pt play #131 of 32 and System #2 Tex A&M 37 pt play #37 of 32)

Under 52 Penn St/Texas A&M (Triple Play) Marquee Totals Play

Wake Forest -2 vs UConn (Meineke Care Care Bowl) @1:00 pm ET

(System 1: UConn 54 pt play #18 of 32 and System #2 UConn 24 pt play #16 of 32)

Regular Opinions

Under 54.5 Miss St/UCF (Single Play) Marquee Totals Play

Under 46.5 Wake ForestUConn (Single Play) Marquee Totals Play

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 1:58pm
0 likes

Dave Cokin

fat man releases

miss st

penn st

uab

under the hat

penn st

window

raptors

3 star action play

mavs

champ club

drake

window

byu

under the hat

tenn chat

3 star action play

wisc milw

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 2:02pm
0 likes

Brandon Lang

SATURDAY'S EARLY PICK

25 DIME - Wake Forest

Still have a lot of work to do.

Yes, the perfect Friday was nice but trust me, still have a long way to go.

It was nice to get the 15 dimer on Tcu under our belt but when I tell you the best is yet to come, take heed in that.

I can't stress to you enough the biggest key to this business is making sure your winning days make more than your losing days take away.

It's called money management and lately it's been rock solid.

Last Sunday +28.5 dimes, Monday +40 dimes, losing days Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday cost me did little damage leading to the +40 dime Friday.

I told you I was going to finish December strong and roll that into 2008 leading to my 16th straight Super bowl winner.

The tough run is over and the good times are rolling now.

Jump on. Stay put. Evaluate where you are at after my 16th straight Super bowl winner and I truly believe you will be more than happy with where this thing ends

Up.

So here we go. An even bigger bowl winner. Another winning day and setting ourselves up for the 2nd straight winning week.

Now to your analysis:

25 DIME - Wake Forest - This will be one of those weird, tough-to-comprehend, distracting type of football games that will have you wondering why in the heck the coordinators from each program have jobs. And what it'll come down to is which program â€“ which one member of a particular coaching staff â€“ can produce the unsuspecting 'big play' to swing the momentum in his team's behalf. And with all due respect the BCS Bowl teams, there may not be a more dangerous team than Wake Forest, when considering all units except the offense. It sounds crazy, but may I remind you of Boise State's heroics last season, when a hook-and-ladder and Statue of Liberty plays kicked off 2007's highlights. The Deacons will have it's hands full with a spunky Huskies team, but in the end, we're going to see a defensive highlight reel, or something out of the ordinary to help Wake get it done.

Saturday Night Picks

10 DIME - Patriots

5 DIME - Penn State

5 DIME - Pitt

10 Dime PATRIOTS â€“ I'll be honest with ya, I never understood why â€“ since the Dallas win â€“ everyone kept mentioning tonight's game as the one contest the favorites to win the Super Bowl had to worry about, as far as the hurdle toward the undefeated achievement. I was more concerned with Pittsburgh and Miami, and that's the God's honest truth, than I was with this game. I sat on the set of one Internet-based television show roughly four months back, and told everyone this was the team to beat in the AFC, and that I expected it to be there in February. Now, 16 weeks in, I have no problem backing this team in this one, as it's the Giants everyone should be worried about, in terms of which starters will rest; and for how long. Seriously, if the Pats were ever in a situation where they were risking injuries, it was at Dallas, at Indianapolis and at home against Pittsburgh. New England is going to break out early and often in this one, and will coast to a 3-TD win!

5 Dime - PENN STATE â€“ Texas A&M's biggest problem tonight is that it comes out of the high-profile Big 12, and what most teams did to frustrate the Aggies this season was clog the trenches to stifle the rushing tandem of Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson, while coincidentally forcing Stephen McGee to move the chains through the air. It's apparent the ploy worked, as A&M ranked 98th in the nation with its passing offense, and forced the rushing game to keep it games. Inefficient play calling led to the defense wearing itself out, ranking 84th overall with its stop unit, while the passing D ranked 106th. Since the turn of the century I haven't necessarily been that inspired by legendary coach Joe Paterno, but when the time is right, you come to appreciate â€“ and understand â€“ why he's won 22 bowl games during his illustrious career. The game may be in the Alamo Dome â€“ about 170 miles Southwest of College Station â€“ but Joe Pa will have his team fully prepared for what could be his final Bowl appearance.

5 Dime PITTSBURGH â€“ I swear that everywhere I've turned the Flyers are being picked in this clash; but there's something about the Panthers that has me keeping in touch with their whereabouts early on this season. I admit I was skeptical about this team, since it came into the campaign sans Aaron Gray. But with all due respect to how he found a way to get his teammates involved last season, despite being the star, the Panthers' chemistry is much better without a big-star name in the starting rotation, and that matters in a conference like the Big East. Coach Jamie Dixon is smart enough to make his players understand the Flyers are nothing to look past, a trait that can be attributed to the reason he is first Pitt coach to reach the Big Dance four straight seasons. Dayton will suffer from the loss of freshman star Chris Wright, who is nursing an ankle injury, while the Panthers will make another statement.

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 2:02pm
0 likes

northcoast 4* Miss St

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 2:04pm
0 likes

SERVICE REPORT

ATS Lock Club..................4*Wake Forest

.........................................3*C.Flori da, Penn State & New England

Big 10 Sports....................Regular: Penn State

Dave Cokin.......................Under The Hat: Penn State

.........................................System Play: U Conn

.........................................3*Mississ ippi State & New England

Director Sports..................U Conn, C.Florida, Penn St & New England

"Doc".................................4*Wake Forest

Doctor Bob.........................3* U Conn

..........................................2*CFU/MSU(U)

..........................................1*Penn State

Gold Sheet........................Regular: Wake Forest

Guarantee Picks................Wake Forest

Frank Magliosa.................Mississippi State

JB Sports...........................2*Mississippi ST & NYGIants

Jim Feist...........................Bowl game Of The Year: Penn State

..........................................5*Missis sippi State & New England

Joe Gavazzi(PPP).............3*U Conn & Penn State

.........................................2*C.Flori da

.........................................1*NY Giants

Kelso Sturgeon.................10*C. Florida & Texas A&M

Las Vegas Sports..............10*Wake Forest & Texas A&M

Lenny Stevens..................10*U Conn, C.Florida & Penn State

LT Profits...........................2*Mississippi State

Marc Lawrence..................Top: Penn State

Northcoast.........................4*Mississippi State

..........................................Opinions : Wake Forest & Penn State

Northcoast (Totals).............UConn/WF(U), CFU/MSU(U) & PSU/A&M(U)

Rocketman........................U Conn, C.Florida & Penn State

Texas Sports Brokers........10*Texas A&M 5*Wake Forest

Wayne Root.......................Millionaire: U Conn

..........................................Money Maker: Texas A&M

..........................................Chairman Of The Board: New England

VIP Lock Club....................500*Mississippi State

Winners Path.....................Penn State

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 2:07pm
0 likes

Alex Smart NCAA Liberty Bowl Opinion (1 Unit) Mississippi State Bulldogs +3 and Alamo Bowl Opinion (1 Unit) Texas A&M Aggies +6

ATS Football Lock Club NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (4 Units) Wake Forest Demon Deacons -1.5 and Saturday NFL Regular Play (3 Units) New England Patriots -13

Ben Burns' Consulting NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Plays (Ben Burns' Personal Favorite) Wake Forest Demon Deacons and (Ben Burns' Total Annihilator) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under, Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (Ben Burns' Liberty Bowl Blowout) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Saturday NFL Top Rated Play (Ben Burns' Saturday Night Pro Football Total of the Year) NY Giants/New England Under

Big Al McMordie Saturday NFL Special (Big Al's NFL TV Game of the Year) New York Giants

Bill Hilton's Gameday Sports NCAA Liberty Bowl Regular Play (3*) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (2*) Texas A&M Aggies

Blazer NCAA Liberty Bowl Regular Play (3*) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (3*) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Regular Play (3*) New York Giants

Bob Balfe's Sunday Selections NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2.5, Liberty Bowl Regular Play Central Florida Golden Knights -3 and Alamo Bowl Regular Play Texas A&M Aggies +5.5

Brandon Lang NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (25 Dimes) Wake Forest Demon Decons and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (5 Dimes) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Regular Play (10 Dimes) New England Patriots

Dave Cokin NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (System Play) Connecticut Huskies, Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (Solid Gold) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (Under the Hat) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Top Rated Play (Solid Gold) New England Patriots

Doc Enterprises NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (5*) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Meineke Bowl Regular Play (4*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Ethan Law NCAA Alamo Bowl Regular Play (1 Unit) Penn State Nittany Lions

Fast Eddie Sports Saturday NCAA Liberty Bowl Regular Play (10*) Central Florida Golden Knights and Saturday NFL Regular Play (10*) New England Patriots

Frank Rosenthal NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Plays (SB+) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under 47.5 and (SB) Wake Forest Demon Deacons -1, Liberty Bowl Regular Plays (SB) Central Florida Golden Knights -2.5 and (SB) Mississippi State/Central Florida Under 56, Alamo Bowl Regular Plays (SB) Texas A&M Aggies +5.5 and (SB) Penn State/Texas A&M Under 52.5, Saturday NFL Regular Plays (SB+) New York Giants +14 and (SB+) New England/NY Giants Over 46

Guaranteed Sports NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (4*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Jim Feist NCAA Alamo Bowl Special (Jim Feist's College Bowl Game of the Year) Penn State Nittany Lions

Jim Kruger NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (3*) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under 48

Joe Gavazzi's Private Players of Pittsburgh NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Plays (3%) Connecticut Huskies and (3%) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under, Liberty Bowl Primetime Opinion (2%) Central Florida Golden Knights and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (3%) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Primetime Opinions (1%) New York Giants and (1%) New England/NY Giants Under

Kelso Sturgeon NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (10 Units) Central Florida Golden Knights -3, Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (10 Units) Texas A&M Aggies +5 and Bowl Parlay (10 Units 2 Teamer) Texas A&M Aggies + Central Florida Golden Knights, Saturday NFL Regular Plays (5 Units) New England Patriots -13.5, (5 Units) New England/NY Giants Under 46.5 and (5 Unit 2 Team Parlay) New England/NY Giants Under 46.5 + New England Patriots -13.5

Larry Ness NCAA Alamo Bowl Special (Larry Ness' 24* Legend Play) Penn State Nittany Lions

Lem Banker NCAA Liberty Bowl Regular Play Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alamo Bowl Regular Play Texas A&M Aggies

Lenny Stevens NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (10*) Connecticut Huskies, Liberty Bowl Regular Play (10*) Central Florida Golden Knights and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (10*) Penn State Nittany Lions

LT Profits NCAA Liberty Bowl Regular Play (2*) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Saturday NFL Regular Play (2*) NY Giants/New England Under

LV Sports NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (10*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (10*) Texas A&M Aggies

Michael Cannon NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (40 Dimes) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (10 Dimes) Penn State Nittany Lions

Mike Rose NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play Connecticut/Wake Forest Over 48, Liberty Bowl Regular Play Mississippi State/Central Florida Over 55.5, Alamo Bowl Regular Plays Penn State Nittany Lions -5.5 and Penn State/Texas A&M Under 51.5, Saturday NFL Regular Play New York Giants +14

Northcoast Sports NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (4*) Mississippi State Bulldogs +3 and Regular Opinion (1*) Mississippi State/Central Florida Under 54.5, Meineke Bowl Top Opinion (2*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2 and Regular Opinion (1*) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under 46.5, Alamo Bowl Top Opinions (2*) Penn State Nittany Lions -5 and (2*) Penn State/Texas A&M Under 52, Saturday NCAA Top Opinion (2* Marquee Private Play Hotline) New England/NY Giants Under 46.5

Pointwise Late Telephone Service NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (3*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

R&R Totals NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play Central Florida/Mississippi State Under

Rocketman Sports NCAA Meineke Bowl Opinion (1*) Connecticut Huskies, Liberty Bowl Opinion (1*) Central Florida Golden Knights and Alamo Bowl Opinion (1*) Penn State Nittany Lions

Scott Spreitzer NCAA Liberty Bowl Special (Scott Spreitzer's College Bowl Shocker Game of the Year) Mississippi State Bulldogs, Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (Scott Spreitzer's Main Event) Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (Scott Spreitzer's College Bowl Insider) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Top Rated Play (Scott Spreitzer's Saturday Night Pro Football TKO December Game of the Month) New York Giants

Sebastian Sports NCAA Liberty Bowl Special (50*) Mississippi State Bulldogs, Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (20*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (20*) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Top Rated Play (20*) New England/NY Giants Under

Spylock NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (3 Units) Connecticut Huskies

The Gold Sheet Late Telephone Service NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (1 Unit) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The Real Animal NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Plays (4*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2 and (4*) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under 47

The Underdog NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play Connecticut Huskies

Total Insights NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (1*) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under

VIP Lock Club NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (500%) Mississippi State Bulldogs

VSSWins.com Saturday NCAA Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (6%) Texas A&M Aggies +6/-120, Sunday NCAA Independence Bowl Top Rated Play (6%) Colorado Buffaloes +4/-115 and 2008 BCS National Title Game Special (7.5% College Bowl Game of the Year) Ohio State Buckeyes +5/-125, Saturday NCAA College Basketball Top Rated Play (6%) Texas Longhorns -7/-115, (6%) Arkansas Little Rock Trojans -3/-125, (6%) TCU Horned Frogs -5/-120, (6%) BYU Cougars -4/-115, (4%) Memphis Tigers -8/-120, (6%) Illinois State Redbirds +7/-115, (6%) Wichita State Shockers -1/-130, (6%) Alabama Crimson Tide -12/-115, (6%) DePaul Blue Demons -1/-125 and (6%) Dayton Flyers +4/-125 (More Throughout the Day)

Wayne Root NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (Millionaire) Connecticut Huskies and Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (Money Maker) Texas A&M Aggies, Saturday NFL Top Rated Play (Chairman) New England Patriots

Winners Margin NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (5*) Connecticut Huskies and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (5*) Penn State Nittany Lions

Winners Path NCAA Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play Penn State Nittany Lions

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 2:13pm
0 likes

1. Ats 1t 4-wf / 3-ne

2. Bankers 1t 400-wf

3. Ben Burns Wf, Miss St, Wf Under / Nyg Under

4. Big Money Conn

5. Blazer 4 3-ms St, Pst Under / 3-nyg

6. Carolina Sports 4- Penn St, 3- Uconn / 4-nyg

7. Doc Enterprises 5 5-miss St, 4-wf

8. Dr. Bob 3-uconn, 2-cfla Under

9. Gameday 3 3-miss St, 2-tx A&m

10. Inside Info 3-cfla

11. Joe D 25-penn St

12. Lenny Stevens 10-conn, Cfla, Pst

13. Lt Profits 2-ms St

14. Nationwide (goldst) 6 Reg: Wf

15. Neri 3-conn, Ms St Under, Pst

16. Northcoast 4-ms St

17. Pointwise 3-wf

18. Preferred Picks Pass

19. Private Players 3-conn And Under, Pst, 2-cfla

20. Score 300-conn, Pst / 400-ne

21. Underdog Ms St

22. Pure Lock Pass

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 2:14pm
0 likes

John Ryan's College Bowl 7* GOY on PENN ST (everyone on them)

Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Penn State â€“ AiS shows an 86% probability that PSU will win this game by 6 or more points. PSU QB Morelli possess an extremely strong arm and with all fo the rest leading up to this game will be in fine condition. OC Galen Hall (yes, the same guy, who coached the Cowboys) will expand the offense to exploit all of the severe weaknesses in the Texas A&M defense. The Aggies rank 100th in the nation in pass defense. Their CB and safeties are not fast enough to be caught in man coverage. In playing zone, Morelli will have the option to get the ball to their best play maker Derrick Williams. He is an awesome athlete and is extremely dangerous in the open field. PSU has a very deep corp of receivers with three of them having 40+ catches on the season. These 3 are Williams, Butler, and Norwood and all of them have significant advantages in man coverage. PSU will pass to set up the run and that running game can be powerful at times â€“ especially late in the game. Rodney Kinlaw has emerged as a strong power back with 222 carries and a 5.3 YPR average. A&M has two monster defensive players in DT Bryant (6-5, 322) and NT Smith (6-3, 315). They can clog the space for the running game, but they lack the speed and quickness to generate any sort of pass rush against a solid PSU offensive line. In fact, most of the secondary has been hung out to dry with a marginal pass rush at times â€“ even in 3rd and long situations. If Morelli were to ever have his career game â€“ this would have to be the matchup to do it in. AiS also shows a 90% probability that PSU will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that A&M is just 12-40 ATS when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. A&M is off a 38-30 win of Texas in a huge upset and in the game before they lost at Missouri40-28, but covered as a 17 point dog. The fact that both of their last 2 games went over 60 points puts them into an 0-7 ATS role spanning the past 15 years. Take Penn State to roll big.

posted by phantom

Dec. 29 2007 2:14pm
0 likes

WINNING POINTS ( 8-6)

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

(December 30 at Shreveport)

ALABAMA over COLORADO by 7

This was hardly the season that Alabama was looking for in Nick Sabanâ€™s debut,

with his own unfortunate comments late in the year drawing even more national

attention to the struggles that the Crimson Tide have had, and then a USA Today

article showing how the program was #2 in the nation in coaching dollars spent per

win this season. In fairness, however, while things were disappointing they were not

all that awful, with Alabama not losing a game all season by more than a touchdown.

The first bottom line is that an influx of talent is needed before the building

process gets underway, but the second bottom is that the Crimson Tide still

have more talent than this opponent, which gets buoyed by an intense focus and

what should be a major edge in fan support. Like Saban, Dan Hawkins also needs

some solid recruiting classes to get things turned around in Boulder, and while

pulling an upset of Oklahoma is a sign of the capacity of this coaching staff, there

were far too many games in which the Buffaloes were not able to compete. The pass

defense allowed over 400 yards in four of the last seven games, and in the last two

home games allowed Missouri and Nebraska to top 50 points and 600 yards, a real

sign of a lack of depth as they basically wore out. That means plenty of operating

room for D. J. Hall and an Alabama offense that will finally enjoy some breathing

room off of that difficult S.E.C. schedule to make some game-breaking plays.

ALABAMA 31-24.

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:11am
0 likes

Jon Campbell FROM COVERS (6-8 bowl record )

PetroSun Independence Bowl

Colorado vs. Alabama (-3 Â½, 51)

Bama has only covered one spread in its last 10 games. Thatâ€™s bad. Iâ€™m still not sure about this one though. It depends on which Tide team shows up â€“ the one that whipped Tennessee 41-17 or the one that lost to Louisiana-Munroe 21-14. Iâ€™ll roll the dice and say the former.

Pick: Alabama -3 Â½

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:11am
0 likes

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS: ( 11-3!!!!!!!!!!)

This is the only bowl matching two 6-6 tms TY and is the 3rd all-time meeting (1-1) with both prior

tilts in bowls. They last met in the â€˜91 Blockbuster Bowl and Bama won 30-25 (-2). CU did not make a

bowl LY & is 12-15 all-time. UA is making their NCAA record 55th bowl appearance and their 4th bowl

trip in a row. This is UAâ€™s 3rd trip to the Independence Bowl (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) and their 2nd trip in a row

to Shreveport. Bama is on a 1-5 ATS run in bowls. Saban went 3-5 SU & ATS in bowls at LSU & Mich St.

This will mark CUâ€™s 1st Independence Bowl berth, but they are on a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run in the post

season. HC Hawkins is 2-2 SU & ATS in bowls (all w/Boise St). CU fans are not known for traveling &

might not be well represented again due to the 1,071 mile trip & the late night Sun start. Bama may also

have trouble selling tickets since they went to this bowl LY and finished the reg ssn with 4 straight losses

including their 6th in a row to rival Aub. CU has faced 6 bowl caliber tms TY & has gone 2-4 SU & ATS

being outscored on avg 29-17 & outgained 346-294. UA faced 9 bowl caliber tms with a 3-6 SU & 1-7-1

ATS record but was only outscored 25-24 and outgained 355-350. Both schools plyâ€™d FSU and both lost

SU & ATS, but CU was held to -27 rush yds (-1.1). CU has 6 senior starters with 15 upperclassmen

(68%) and Bama has 7 seniors with 12 upperclassmen (55%). CU is 4-10 ATS (including bowls) as an

AD & the Tide was 1-2 ATS as a AF TY and finished the ssn on a 1-8-1 ATS run.

Colorado took care of business vs rival Neb to become bowl eligible in their ssn finale & secured this

slot when Fresno beat K-St. They dropped 65 pts on the Huskers (most scored in a single gm S/â€™95). It

was a tale of 2 ssns as CU stood 4-2 outgaining foes by 76 ypg with a win over then #3 OU (snapped 14

gm losing streak vs ranked tms). Buffs were outscored by 15 ppg & outgained by 97 ypg in a 5 wk period

(1-4) before the ssn final. CU has our #48 off avg 28 ppg & 377 ypg. Buffs returned 9 starters on off from

LYâ€™s 2-10 tm that avg 16.3 ppg (lowest in 22 yrs). HC Hawkinsâ€™ son Cody earned the starting QB job but

understandably struggled early but had a 8-1 ratio over the L/4 gms. The success of the off relies heavily

on RB Charles. Five of their 6 losses came when Charles failed to reach 100 yds. The OL avg 6â€™4â€ 305

paving the way for 150 ypg (3.9) allâ€™g 16 sks. The CU def has our #53 ranking allâ€™g 29 ppg, 389 ypg with

just 19 sks. The DL avg 6â€™3â€ 268 allâ€™g 128 rush ypg (4.0). The LB corps was hampered by injâ€™s early in

the ssn and is missing 50% of the 2 deep. LB Dizon was named Big 12 Def POY with a league leading

12.4 tpg (#2 NCAA). CB Wheatley, who is the leader of the secondary, missed the L/2 gms with an inj

but should be 100% (#2 all-time int leader w/14). CU ranks #24 in our pass eff def rankings allâ€™g 262 ypg

(57%) with a 24-15 ratio vs a very tough slate of opposing QBâ€™s. K Eberhart has a strong leg, hitting 8-12

from 40+ (L/54) but will not have the advantage of the high altitude. CU has our #21 STâ€™s ranking.

LY Tide alum Mike Shula was fired after a 6-6 reg ssn which resulted in a trip to the Independence

Bowl and Bama brought in Saban for an unheard of salary to save the program from mediocrity. The

Tide proved that Rome wasnâ€™t built in a day and return to Shreveport after taking a nosedive in the 2H

of the ssn including a humiliating home loss to ULM. Tide QB Wilson led the Tideâ€™s #58 offense but was

erratic and wilted under heavy pressure finishing the ssn with a 1-5 ratio in the L/3. RBâ€™s Grant, Coffee,

Upchurch and Johns were all given opportunities, but Grant proved to be the most consistent starting

9 gms. WR Hall finished #2 in the SEC in rec ypg in a strong senior yr. The OL suffered greatly when

2 starters missed 4 gms in the highly publicized textbook scandal and allâ€™d 24 sks (5.5%) with the tm

rushing for 151 ypg (4.0). The defense finished #29 in our overall rankings and #39 in our pass D rankings

allâ€™g opposing QBâ€™s to complete just 54% with a 17-17 ratio. Bama has our #17 STâ€™s rankings.

Nick Saban has not quite been the savior that the Crimson Tide alumni had hoped for. A 6-6

year with a season ending 4 game losing streak is unacceptable. While Colorado also comes in with

a 6-6 mark their fans are pleased with the progress HC Hawkins has shown. Saban made â€œdisasterâ€

remarks after the loss to ULM and no one has more pressure for a feel good win to save face for

recruiting. Bama has the talent edge, the need, the crowd, and the fear of embarrassment.

FORECAST: ALABAMA 30 Colorado 17 RATING: 2★

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:11am
0 likes

THE GOLD SHEET ( 7-7)

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

COLORADO (6-6) vs. ALABAMA (6-6)

Sunday, December 30 Night at Shreveport, LA (FieldTurf)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Colorado 12 6-6 6-6 28 29 151 226 41-19-19 128 262 44-18-24 -4 -.4 8.2

Alabama 11 5-6 2-7 25 23 136 218 29-13-15 133 217 32-14-17 +2 .6 9.4

*Alabama 24 - Colorado 23â€”

Itâ€™s hard to envision either of these two 6-

6 teamsâ€”both looking toward the futureâ€”escaping the gravity of the other.

Alabama (only 2-7-2 vs. the spread) lost its last four games and has ended up

in the same bowl it lost 34-31 LY to Oklahoma State. Hard-driving HC Nick

Saban (only 3-5 SU in bowls) is thankful for the extra days of bowl practice, but

the â€œNicktatorâ€ has railed at his players near the end of the season for not doing

things â€œthe right way.â€ Saban has commitments from a large recruiting class and

has reportedly told his team that many current players will not be back in 2008.

In Boulder, the atmosphere has been a little different, with Colorado happy to

be back in the postseason after missing the bowls completely LY despite having

gone to the Big XII title game 4 of the 5 previous seasons. But enthusiastic

coach Dan Hawkins had one of the youngest teams in the country in 2007,

complete with a redshirt freshman QB (son Cody), two true frosh starters in his

OL, and a slew of young receivers. Plus, the young Buffaloes snapped their 1-

4 late-season slide with a rousing 41-point second-half comeback to beat

defenseless rival Nebraska 65-51.

Both opposing QBs were inconsistent (Cody Hawkins 56.4%, 19 TDs, 15

ints.; John Parker Wilson 54.9%, 15 TDs, 11 ints.), both teams struggled

converting on third down (CU 34.5%; Bama 37.0%), and both suffered from

some inconsistent kicking (Buffs only 9 of 16 FGs of 30-49 yards; Crimson Tide

only 10 of 18). But on defense, both teams are speckled with outstanding

playmakers, as CU LB Jordon Dizon was second in the nation in tackles; Bamaâ€™s

255-pound true frosh LB Rolando McLain was an all-SEC frosh. Buffsâ€™ CB

Terrence Wheatley (back from toe fracture) had 5 ints.; Tide S Rashad Johnson

had 6. Bama DE Wallace Gilberry had 9 sacks; Buff DT George Hypolite 6.

Alabama has played in five bowls this century, with the final margins only 1,

1, 4, 3 & 3 (!), with the Red Elephants winning only two.

(DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:15am
0 likes

POINTWISE ( 4-10)

ALABAMA (6-6) vs COLORADO (6-6)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30

8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Alabama ..... 46.8 .. 27-22 .. 23-18 .. 151-128 .. 222-213.. + 4 . Alabama

Colorado .... 44.5 .. 27-28 .. 17-19 .. 152-128 .. 227-262.. - 4 . by 3.7 Pts

ANALYSIS

These 2 collegiate stalwarts meet for just the 3rd time, with the previous 2 also

coming in the post-season. In the '69 Liberty Bowl, the Buffaloes of Colorado

prevailed over the Crimson Tide of Alabama, 47-33. The Tide snagged a bit of

revenge, by winning the '91 Blockbuster Bowl, 30-25, as a 2-pt chalk. This

season saw the arrival of Nick Saban at Tuscaloosa. He brought LSU a share

of the national title just 4 years ago, before moving on to an ill-fated stretch

with the Miami Dolphins. And, altho 'Bama has had its moments, including an

amazing 41-17 rout of then 20th-ranked Tennessee, along with a mere 3-pt

loss to currently 4th-ranked Georgia, & a 7-pt loss to now 2nd-ranked LSU,

the fact of the matter is that the Tide hasn't won since that blowout of the Vols.

Thus, a 6-6 record, despite 9 returning offensive starters, with nary a loss by

more than a TD. Extremely competitive, but a classic underachiever, exemplified

by a loss to La-Monroe, as a 24Â½ pt favorite. Like the Tide, Colorado, is

also a difficult team, in which to get a proper read. The Buffs' highlight was

that shocking 27-24 upset of 3rd-ranked Oklahoma, as 23-pt dogs. And it was

no fluke, as CU held the Sooners to 12 FDs, while holding a 381-230 yd edge.

That win completed a 3-game stretch, in which Colorado held a combined FD

edge of 73-28. The low point? Try a 55-10 home loss to Missouri, with a 402

yd deficit. QBs Wilson of UA & Hawkins of CU have posted similar stats, &,

as can be seen above they match each other perfectly in rushing "O" & "D".

Note 'Bama's last 5 bowl games being decided by 1, 1, 4, 3, & 3 pts SU. That

is just about what should be expected in this meeting. So, we will take the pts.

PROPHECY: COLORADO 27 - Alabama 25 RATING: 4

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:16am
0 likes

THE SPORTS MEMO ( 12-2 !!!!!!!!!!)

Alabama -3.5 vs. Colorado O/U 51 Recommendation: Over

Sunday, December 30, 8 pm EST (ESPN) Shreveport, La

The Independence Bowl is not a treasured destination for SEC

schools, especially ones that pay their new coach $4 million per

year. Such is life, however, and Nick Saban and Alabama are back

in Shreveport for the second consecutive year. The Tide was

a 34-31 loser to Oklahoma State in last yearâ€™s game. Colorado

is back in a bowl this year after suffering through a 2-10 season

a year ago. They are probably a little more excited to be in

Shreveport than the Tide, but the edge probably isnâ€™t that great.

I would expect Alabama to have a good effort as Saban tries to

end his first season in Tuscaloosa with a winning record. These

teams are actually pretty similar this season. Both had some nice

conference wins, some bad losses, and some near misses. Colorado

had a win over then number one ranked Oklahoma early in

the year and also had a road win at Texas Tech. Alabamaâ€™s best

win came against Tennessee, but they also battled LSU tough in

a seven-point loss. The Tide ended the season on a four game

losing streak, dropping all four games by a touchdown or less.

They really struggled on offense, scoring just 36 points in their

last three losses to Auburn, Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi

State. These two teams are also similar statistically using the

true rushing and passing numbers. They are both about average

running the ball, a little below average throwing it and about average

on defense. Colorado has better offensive numbers, while

Bama has a little better numbers defensively. In looking at this

matchup, I expect to see a wide open game. Neither team really

has anything to lose or gain in this game and the trend among

bowl games in recent years has definitely been towards highscoring

games. Coloradoâ€™s Dan Hawkins has always been a wide

open offensive coach, and in the bowl atmosphere, I expect that

to be even more evident. Alabama should be able to throw the

ball against this Colorado defense that allowed over 400 yards

passing in three of its last four games, something I am sure has

caught the attention of the Alabama coaching staff. After a solid

sophomore season, Alabama quarterback John Parker Wilson

definitely regressed this year. Some of that can be attributed

to injuries to key players on offense, but Wilson also failed to

make some throws that he made the year before. He needs a

solid game here to cement his status as the starter next year,

and this is a defense that he can certainly take advantage of.

Wilson will also have everyone on the offense around him healthy

and eligible for this game, another plus. Coloradoâ€™s offense is

led by Cody Hawkins, the son of the coach. He has also had an

up and down season, but ended with two solid performances

in the Buffaloesâ€™ last two games. In fact, Colorado scored 93

points in those two contests. Choosing the winner of this game

is tough, it will likely be decided late in the game, but both sides

should light up the scoreboard and push it easily Over the total.

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:16am
0 likes

DR BOB ( 7-6)

Alabama (-3 Â½) vs Colorado: I like Colorado plus the points.

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:16am
0 likes

MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: 6-8 ( lost 6 striaght)

Independence Bowl

Colorado by 3

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:17am
0 likes

pointwise phones

3* Colorado

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:17am
0 likes

Asa 7* BOWL GOY

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alabama -3 1/2

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:17am
0 likes

VSS

NCAA Independence Bowl (Sunday) Top 6% #449 COLORADO BUFFALOES +4/-115 over Alabama Crimson Tide

posted by phantom

Dec. 30 2007 3:17am
0 likes

Pointwise Bowl Games

OKLAHOMA STATE (6-6) vs INDIANA (7-5)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 31

5:30 PM EST -- NFL NETWORK TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Okla St ........ 46.2 .. 33-29 .. 21-20 .. 246-155 .. 238-292 .. - 1 . Okla St

Indiana ....... 40.5 .. 32-27 .. 18-19 .. 156-159 .. 238-239 .. + 0 . by 3.6 Pts

ANALYSIS

For the first time in 14 years (45-20 loss to Virginia Tech in '93 Independence),

the Hoosiers of Indiana grace the bowl scene. They followed that loss to the

Hokies with a 6-5 record in '94, but then suffered through 12 consecutive

losing campaigns, before managing a 7-5 season this year. Lynch (for the

stricken Hoeppner) became the first head coach in program history to reach a

bowl game in his first season. The key to the Hoosiers' season, was its quick

start vs non-conference foes Indiana St, Western Michigan, & Akron, winning

by a combined score of 133-58. No, not the toughest of competition, but just

what Indy, & its 16 returning starters needed, in shaking a losing attitude.

They couldn't stay with Illinois, Mich St, or Wisconsin (112-44 pt deficit), but

their 2 other losses came by just 6 & 3 pts, vs 8-4 Penn St, & at 6-6 Northwestern.

However, check 288-134, 368-22, 192-68, 279-145, & 165-94 RY deficits

in their 5 losses. Hardly enough for QB Lewis (61%), along with his 2,839 yds

& 26 TDs to overcome. And that spells trouble vs an Oklahoma State Cowboy

team which sports not only the land's 9th ranked offense, but 7th best rushing

game, behind do-it-all QB Robinson (2,522 yds, 20 TDs passing; 777 yds, 7

TDs rushing). The 'Pokes scored at least 39 pts in each of their 6 wins, &

have now topped 40 pts 10 times the past 2 years. Thus, defense has to be

their bane, & so it is, ranking 104th overall, & 116th vs the pass, so Lewis has

to be licking his chops. Thus, a barnburner is almost a certainty. In an oddity,

the Hoosiers recorded the only shutout in this bowl's history (24-0 vs Baylor in

'91, when it was known as the Copper Bowl). This should be exact opposite.

PROPHECY: OKLAHOMA STATE 44 - Indiana 30 RATING: 3

CLEMSON (9-3) vs AUBURN (8-4)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 31

7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Clemson ..... 44.1 .. 34-18 .. 19-15 .. 147-106 .. 231-168.. +11 . Clemson

Auburn ....... 47.3 .. 24-17 .. 18-17 .. 154-119 .. 174-179.. + 1 . by 7.4 Pts

ANALYSIS

Defense! This one matches a pair of perennial bowl participants, who meet

for the first time since the Tigers (or War Eagles) of Auburn took the measure

of the Tigers of Clemson, 21-17, in the '97 Peach Bowl, which, incidentally, is

the former name of this bowl. And doesn't that seem a logical score for this

contest? When the dust settled, the Tigers ranked 6th in the land in total "D",

8th in scoring "D", 19th vs the run, & 13th vs the pass. Solid credentials. But

the Eagles weren't far behind, ranking 8th, 6th, 25th, & 6th, in those columns,

respectively. So pts will be at a premium. However, if a team is to break out,

offensively, then Clemson would be the obvious choice. CU has exploded for

at least 42 pts on 5 occasions, with 2 of those marks posted vs bowl teams:

70-14 vs Central Michigan, & 44-10 vs Wake Forest. They are led by one of

the more pleasant surprises, QB Harper, who ranks 17th in the nation, as well

as 1st in the ACC in QB ratings, with a 67% pct, & 2,887 yds, along with 27 TD

passes, & just 6 INTs. Davis & Spiller have been "go-to" backs, while Kelly (84

receptions) is a force. The Eagles have been among the elites for ages, &, as

noted above, can take almost any foe out of its game. They thrive in the dog

role, covering 7-of-8 in that rare designation, over the past 4 years. If they are

at a disadvantage here, it is their penchant for the turnover, which has seen a

combined minus 11 in 3 of their 4 losses (5-0 deficit vs So Fla, 5-1 deficit vs

Miss St, 4-2 deficit vs Georgia). Though a veteran, sr QB Cox threw for only 9

TDs this season, while tossing 12 INTs. Thus, the QB edge seems to favor

Clemson, & that may decide it. Hate bucking AU as a dog, but this a CU call.

PROPHECY: CLEMSON 24 - Auburn 17 RATING: 6

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 1:31am
0 likes

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS:

These two met in â€˜04 with Cal leading the series 5-2. HC Tedford & Co enter this game much maligned

after losing 6 of L/7 (0-7 ATS) incl an embarrassing loss to Stanford. Cal will be playing a 5th str bowl gm

for the 1st time while AF is making its 1st appearance S/â€˜02. None of AFâ€™s 17 seniors have played in a

bowl, and this was their 1st winning ssn S/â€™03. Cal has played 6 bowl squads being outscored by a 29-27

and outgained 399-389 going just 2-4 SU & ATS. AF took on 5 bowl tms and went 3-2 ATS & 2-3 SU

being outscored 25-19 and outgained 376-351. During pressn, new AF HC Calhoun told the Cadet Wing

that if his tm went 6-0 at home and went bowling (which they did), he would buy the first 200 tickets. AF

should have a large crowd edge, drawing many military fans. This is MWC COY Calhounâ€™s (an AF grad)

1st bowl game as a HC but he was the OC at Ohio and WF where he did go to a bowl in â€˜02. Both Cal

& AF faced CSU this ssn and while both tms were victorious, Cal was actually outgained 458-391 and

they barely held on with a 6 pt win (-14) while the Falcons manhandled CSU outgaining them 437-380

in their 45-21 win (+3). The Bears have 8 senior starters & 20 upperclassmen starters while the Falcons

have 14 seniors and 19 upperclassmen.

The Bearsâ€™ offense began the ssn on fire avg 39 ppg & 426 ypg on their way to being #2 in the country

after 5 gms. QB Longshore (64%, 7-2 ratio in first 5 gms) appeared to be having an even better ssn than

LY until an ankle inj suffered late in the gm vs UO caused him to miss the heartbreaking loss to OSU.

Following his return the next wk, it was apparent that he was not 100% causing him to struggle for the

remainder of the ssn completing just 57% of his passes with a 9-11 ratio over the L/6. Forsett became

the 5th straight Cal RB to rush for 1,000+ yds practically carrying the off for most of the ssn. The WR

combo of Jackson & Hawkins comb for over 50% of the tmâ€™s recâ€™s despite both dealing with nagging injâ€™s

most of the yr. The OL avg 6â€™5â€ 303 & is led by AA C Mack who helped Cal rush for 163 ypg (4. while

allâ€™g just 11 sks (#5 NCAA, 2.6%). Overall the off finished with our #30 rankings. Despite losing some key

players to graduation the Bears D played surprisingly well earning our #31 overall ranking. The DL avg

6â€™3â€ 295 & allâ€™d 152 rush ypg (3.9) while recording just 22 sks as injuries to this position were significant

most of the year. The secondary earned a middle of the pack ranking at #54 in pass eff D allâ€™g 223 ypg

(61%) with a 16-10 ratio. Opposing tms chose to punt away from dangerous DeSean Jackson for most of

the ssn as he returned just 12 punts (1 TD) all ssn long. The Bears finished with our #47 ST ranking.

AFâ€™s #36 off is led by MWC Off POY Hall who was the target of a late ssn grass roots Heisman

campaign. Hall began the ssn as a WR in Calhounâ€™s modified offensive scheme, but stepped into the RB

role in gm 6 vs UNLV and never looked back (1,257 rush, 6.9 L/6). He needs just 79 yds rush to break

AFâ€™s single-ssn rush recâ€™d (Beau Morgan, 1996) He is also the leading rec when QB Carney chooses

to pass it (23% of the time) becoming the only player in the NCAA to lead his team in both rushing and

receiving. The OL avg 6â€™4â€ 272 with 2 Sr starters and helped pave the way for 299 rush ypg (5.4) which

is #2 in the NCAA in rush offense while allâ€™g 13 sks (6.7%). LB Fowler is the tmâ€™s #1 tklr and leads our

#59 rated D which is allâ€™g just 131 rush ypg (3.3) with 28 sks. DB Thomas follows close behind, heading

up our #62 pass eff D. In their L/3 gms (Army, ND, SDSt) the AF D held each team under 100 yds rush

as those teams avg just 57 ypg (1.7), but it could be hard to hold that enthusiasm as they have not played

since Nov 17th. The Falcons have our #11 STâ€™s unit. Hall literally does it all for the Falcons as he is the

only player who has returned punts TY and is also the leading KR. PK Harrison helped the season along

as he nailed the game winning 33 yarder vs TCU, which spring-boarded AF through a tough conference

schedule (7-1 ATS in conf play, only loss to BYU).

The service academies perform well in bowls as they are not distracted by the pageantry and stay

focused on their goals. After AF HC Calhoun talked about changing to a pass offense he basically kept

the Falconsâ€™ offense the same. California is devastated to be here after being ranked #2 and thinking

about a national championship early TY. They now have lost an unthinkable 6 of 7 and need to win to

keep from a losing season. They are now healthy (QB & top 2 DL) and can refocus. The Bears finished

last season is a disappointing fashion (1-2 SU & 0-5 ATS) and came out and blasted A&M while AF

played only one top #20 team (BYU) and lost that game 31-6.

FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 38 Air Force 27 RATING: 2★

This is the 1st meeting in a matchup that features two former #2 ranked tms. The Bulls have never played

a P10 tm and have 37 days to prepare while UO last played Dec 1st (2OT loss to rival OSU). The Ducks are

4-2 vs BE tms but havenâ€™t faced one S/â€™65 (Pitt). The Bulls are 22-11 ATS vs non-conf tms S/â€™01 while UO has

covered 8 of 10 S/â€™04. This is USFâ€™s 3rd straight bowl appearance as well as their 3rd bowl in school history.

LY in its 10th yr of existence, USF won its 1st bowl 24-7 (-5) over EC. Under HC Bellotti Oregon has gone

4-6 SU (5-5 ATS) in bowl gms losing their L/4 incl a 30 pt loss to BYU LY. This marks UOâ€™s 4th appearance

in the Sun Bowl with their last being a 31-30 (+4) â€˜03 loss to Minny. In â€˜07 the Bulls defeated #17 Auburn on

the road & #5 WV at home and achieved their 1st Top 25 ranking in school history. They rose to #2 but after

3 straight losses & a challenge by Leavitt, the offense responded avg 48 ppg in their L/3. Oregon also rose

to #2 before Heisman front-runner Dixonâ€™s knee inj KOâ€™d him for the season in a 34-24 (-10) loss to AZ to

begin a 3 gm SU & ATS losing streak. USF played 7 bowl caliber tms TY going 4-3 SU & ATS outscoring

oppâ€™s 34-21 & outgaining them 409-332. UO has played 8 bowl squads going 5-3 SU & ATS outscoring them

32-23 & outgaining them 411-398. The Bulls are 2-3 ATS TY as an AF while UO is 9-4 as an AD since â€˜03.

USF has 6 seniors among 16 upperclassmen starters while UO has 8 among their 16.

The Bulls have our #22 ranked offense avg 35.8 ppg & 422 ypg. LY USF found a dual-threat QB they

hadnâ€™t seen since 2002â€™s Marquel Blackwell. QB Grothe has been a one man offensive machine leading in

passing & rushing. Much like â€˜06, USF got little production from the backfield platooning 3 RBâ€™s until HT Bama

transfer Ford (PS#46) emerged rushing for 112 ypg (5.0) the L/3. Late ssn injâ€™s to the WR position gave rFr

Mitchell 22 of his tm leading 37 rec. The OL, avg 6â€™4â€ 309, was banged up all ssn giving up 25 sks (6.6%)

but still paved the way for 193 ypg (4.4). The offense should be healthy for the bowl. USFâ€™s defense has our

#23 ranking allâ€™g 20.7 ppg & 327 ypg with 30 sks. The DL which features 2 Srâ€™s avg 6â€™2â€ 275 and has allâ€™d

112 rush ypg (3.2). They are led by BE Def POY DE Selvie who broke the NCAA single ssn tfl record with

31.5. This defense held the #4 rush attack (293 ypg) of WV to 188 yds & held Lâ€™ville QB Brohm to a season

low 213 yds & 3 int. They lead the NCAA in TOâ€™s gained with 40!!! AA CB Jenkins skipped the NFL (#3DC)

& teams avoiding him found All-BE Williams on the other side who returned 3 int for TDâ€™s. The Bulls have

our #7 pass eff def allâ€™g 215 ypg (51%) with a 17-23 ratio. USF has our #81 STâ€™s led by Delbert Alvarado

who had a solid yr despite missing 4 of 7 FGâ€™s vs Auburn which could have given USF a comfortable lead.

Numbers are misleading for UOâ€™s offense as they finished with our #12 offense but injâ€™s to key players

have decimated the team. QB Dixon earned P10 Off POY honors despite missing the final 2.5 gms as he

was probably the most important player to any tm in the nation. The off avg 41 ppg & 506 ypg in Dixonâ€™s

10 starts but just 16 ppg & 244 ypg without him incl the teamâ€™s first shutout S/â€™85 vs UCLA. After an inj to

bkup QB Leaf & #3 QB Costa, the Ducks will be forced to use rFr QBâ€™s Roper & Kempt (102 ypg, 36%, 2-4

ratio combined). RB Stewart has taken the bulk of the workload (79% of RB attâ€™s) at the RB spot since an

ACL inj to Johnson in their 6th gm. WR Williams & TE Dickson became UOâ€™s only consistent targets after

injâ€™s to WRâ€™s Paysinger and Colvin (#2 & #3 on depth chart) early in the ssn. The OL avg 6â€™5â€ 311 & is led

by C Unger who helped lead the way for 243 ypg rush (5.1) while allâ€™g just 23 sks (6.0% - 6 in the L/2 gms).

The Duck D had a better than expected ssn earning our #27 ranking. The DL led by DE Reed avg 6â€™3â€ 284

and the team allowed 137 ypg rush (3.6) with 35 sks. The LB position also battled injâ€™s losing WLB Tuitele

for most of the ssn (should be available) & MLB Bacon who tore his ACL vs ASU. UOâ€™s secondary features

an abundance of playmakers led by ROV Chung and they finished #15 in pass eff D allâ€™g 250 ypg (53%)

with an 18-16 ratio. The ST unit finished with the #46 ranking featuring a strong 1st yr effort from P Syria.

Both teams were ranked as high as #2 earlier this year and each believed they had a legitimate

chance to play in the BCS Title game. Oregon lost probable Heisman winner QB Dixon and now will go

with rFr Roper. While he struggled replacing Leaf vs UCLA, he had a week of practice to face Oreg St

and has worked with the #1â€™s the last month. Both defenses have talent that will be playing on Sunday

and by looking at the checklist youâ€™ll see they are very evenly matched. Oregon will try to control the

TOP with Stewart running and Grothe has tossed 8 int the L/4 games.

FORECAST: OREGON (+) 21 South Florida 23 RATING: 2★

Tech is one of just 6 schools to play in a bowl gm in each of the L/11Y & ranks 3rd all time in

bowl winning % (62.9). This will be the 2nd time GT has played in the Humanitarian Bowl as they

defeated Tulsa, 52-10 in â€˜03 & it was the last time the Jackets played on artificial turf. GT & FSU

have met just once before, a 30-21 FSU win in â€˜02 Silicon Valley Classic. GT fired their HC Gailey,

who led the Jackets to a bowl gm in each of his 6 seasons, after they lost to in-state rival UGA for

the 7th straight yr. DC Tenuta has taken over as the interim HC. This will be Tenutaâ€™s 3rd time vs the

Bulldogs. Fresno should have the fan edge as this is in a WAC stadium & GT fans wonâ€™t travel this

far to sit in the snow. FSU played Nov 30th while GTâ€™s last gm was Nov 24th. GT has 16 upperclassmen

starters including 11 Srâ€™s while FSU has 12 upperclassmen including 6 Srâ€™s. The Jackets are

just 4-7-1 as an AF and FSU is 3-1 as an AD. GT faced 6 bowl caliber tms going 1-5 ATS & was

outscored 24-15 & outgained 394-325. Fresno went 1-4 SU & 3-2 ATS vs bowl tms & was outgained

by 121 ypg & outscored by 9 ppg. The Bulldogs had their string of 7 consec bowl gm appearances

snapped LY but turned its â€˜06 record of 4-8 around to finish 8-4 in â€˜07. Fresno is in a bowl for the 8th

time under HC Hill and the Bulldogs are 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS. Each of FSUâ€™s 7 bowl gms under Hill

were closely contested & all were decided by single digits, an avg of 6 ppg. Fresno is 2-0 SU & ATS

vs tms from the ACC with both meetings occurring in a bowl game. Aside from its win over GT in

â€˜02, FSU defeated UVA 37-34 (+5) in OT in the MPC Computers Bowl here in â€˜04.

Tenuta said he will not make any changes on the def or sp tms but expects to do some tinkering

on offense (#52), especially in the passing game which ranks #102 in the NCAA. Tenuta will probably

go with more than 1 QB. FSU ranks #86 in run def & now has to face a healthy Choice (hamstring &

knee), who finished as the #1 rusher in the ACC (#15 NCAA). GTâ€™s OL avg 6â€™3â€ 295 & has paved the

way for a solid 4.8 ypc rush & allâ€™d just 19 sks (5.7%). GTâ€™s rush D is ranked 12th in NCAA allâ€™g 100

ypg & GT is #1 NCAA with 47 sks, but now has to face the #16 rush off (FSU avg 205 ypg rush). The

DL avg 6â€™4â€ 268 with 2 Sr starters & is allowing just 2.8 ypc. LB Wheeler, GTâ€™s leading tklr, is solid

around the line of scrimmage. As solid as GTâ€™s overall D (#28) has been, it struggled on pass D & is

#58 allâ€™g 210 ypg (55%). While they allâ€™d just 11 TD, they only came up with 5 int (#117 NCAA). Ray

Guy Winner P Brooks, who has the highest career punting avg ever in the ACC, is #4 in the NCAA

TY & PK Bell is #4 in FGâ€™s on our #3 STâ€™s unit.

FSU has our #64 offense which is directed by QB Brandstater who really took a step forward in

his progression TY. Whatâ€™s more, the bigger FSUâ€™s game & opponent, the bigger he played in those

gms. In Fresnoâ€™s five gms TY vs BCS conf tms or tms that appeared in the rankings in â€˜07, Brandstater

threw for 1,264 yds (62%) & 10 TD with only 3 int. When RB Dwayne Wright (1462 yds) left early for

the NFL LY, the backfield was a concern for the Bulldogs entering â€˜07. However, that concern soon

gave way to strong performances in FSUâ€™s RB-by-committee backfield that racked up 2,456 yds &

30 TD on the ground TY. The OL avg 6â€™4â€ 285 & paved the way for 4.7 ypc while allowing 18 sks. TE

Pascoe led the tm in rec thru 11 gms before WR Moore turned it up down the stretch. In FSUâ€™s final

two gms, Moore had 13 rec (18.5) with 2 TD and recorded the only 100 yd rec gms by a Bulldog TY.

FSU DL avg 6â€™2â€ 265 & features two Srâ€™s. The defense is led by LB Riley who posted 51 more tkls than

any other Bulldog en route to earning WAC Def POY honors. FSU had the fewest int by any tm in the

NCAA TY with 3. FSU has our #8 rated ST unit & is led by Jefferson who is #1 in the NCAA in KR.

Fresno St has lived by HC Pat Hillâ€™s mantra â€œAnyone, Anywhere, Anytimeâ€. They made a statement

knocking off Kansas St and took A&M to OT and would relish a win vs a BCS conference

team in a bowl. In LYâ€™s Humanitarian Bowl Nevada had the crowd edge as the Boise fans supported

their conference foe and youâ€™ll find the same situation again. Fresnoâ€™s offense has been clicking at

the end of the season and Brandstater, at 6â€™5â€, has nimble feet and a cannon for an arm while GT

players will be thinking about how next seasonâ€™s switch to the option affects them.

FORECAST: FRESNO ST (+) 30 Georgia Tech 24 RATING: 4*

UK is 3-1-1 vs FSU with the last meeting a 26-24 win by UK in 1965. FSU is 39-33-4 vs SEC teams

not incl Florida. FSU is 4-5 as an unfamiliar AD while KY is 4-2 as an AF under Brooks. LY FSU avoided

their 2nd losing ssn with their 44-27 win over UCLA in the Emerald Bowl, and need a win TY to put a

positive finish to an up & down ssn. Since 1982 FSU leads the NCAA with a 18-6-1 bowl record (16-8-1

ATS). FSU was in danger of breaking their consecutive bowl appearances (28th, 38th overall) at 5-3 with

Nov gms vs BC, VT, MD & Florida. They split going 2-2 with wins at BC & at home vs MD before their

45-12 loss to FL. FSU was unable to score a TD vs the Gators & was outgained 541-287 while KY was

able to score 5 TD & outgained FL 512-427. KY will be going to B2B bowl games for the 4th time in their

history and will make their 2nd straight trip to the Music City Bowl while this will be FSUâ€™s 1st visit. LY UK

defeated Clemson 28-20 (+10â€™) in front of a record crowd for the Music City Bowl and most of the fans

were wearing blue. UK fans snapped up 27,000 tickets to this bowl because Lexington is within driving

distance and should greatly outnumber FSU fans who have been notoriously absent from recent bowl

appearances. UK has only won B2B bowls once in their history (â€˜51-â€™52). KY has played 9 bowl caliber

teams going 4-5 SU & ATS with an avg score of 34-34 & outgaining those tms 429-399. FSU has played

8 bowl caliber tms going 4-4 SU & ATS being outgained 381-315 & outscored 23-20. FSU has 6 senior

starters among 14 upperclassmen in the starting lineup while KY has 9 seniors & 14 upperclassmen.

The Noles have our #60 off ranking avg 23 ppg & 360 ypg. Bowden cleaned house after LYâ€™s dismal ssn &

brought in LSU OC Jimbo Fisher to revamp his offense, who has been named Bowdenâ€™s successor when he

retires. Still a work in progress, FSU made minor improvements. QB Weatherford was benched after subpar

performances in the 1st 4 gms, but returned after Lee consistently turned the ball over. Weatherford has 1 int

in 270 attâ€™s after throwing 29 in 1st 2Y. RB Smith was banged up this season and never really produced. He

missed vs MD & the Noles moved over WR Parker who rushed for 133 (6.7). Parker leads the team in recâ€™s

& all-purp yds avg 112 ypg. The OL avg 6â€™5â€ 286 paving the way for 121 rush ypg (3.5) allâ€™g 21 sks (5.0%).

The defense which is the strength of the team, returned 8 starters but allâ€™d nearly 60 ypg more than LY &

allâ€™d 437 ypg over L/4 gms. They have our #24 defense allâ€™g 22 ppg & 350 ttl ypg with a league low 26 sks

(6.3%). The DL avg 6â€™3â€ 263, allâ€™g 114 ypg rush (3.3). The defense is led by LB Hayes who is tied for #15 in

NCAA in tfl with 17.5. CB Robinson is tied for 10th in NCAA with 6 int. FSU has our #38 pass eff defense

allâ€™g 236 ypg (56%) with a 20-16 ratio. The Noles have a large edge on sp tms (#16-89) led by Parker avg

10.4 yds on PRâ€™s & K Cismesia who was 8-12 from 40+ incl a 60 yd FG vs FL. The bowl elig of some FSU

players could be affected by an academic misconduct case thatâ€™s under investigation.

Future NFL QB Woodson retâ€™d for his senior yr to end some of the schoolâ€™s long losing streaks

and was able to help the tm achieve some of those goals including their first win over rival Louisville

since â€˜02 and their first win over a #1 tm (LSU) since 1964. Woodson avgâ€™d 275 ypg (65%) with a 26-4

ratio in the 1st 8 gms and was being touted for the Heisman, but then injs to RBâ€™s Little & Dixon and

WR Burton and an inexplicable OL collapse which left Woodson scrambling for his life at times, led to

a 10-6 ratio in the L/4 gms. Woodson set an NCAA record with 325 passes without an int and finished

#1 in the SEC in pass ypg. The OL finished last in the SEC with 35 sks allâ€™d (23 in L/5 gms) & the tm

avgâ€™d 157 ypg rush (4.2). With all of the offensive injs, UK avgâ€™d just 21 ppg in regulation the L/4 (40

ppg the 1st . Little, Burton and Dixon should be healthy for the bowl. UKâ€™s #55 defense is led by LB

Woodyard (#1 SEC tkl pg) and DE Jarmon (#2 SEC sks). UKâ€™s secondary finished #44 in our pass D

rankings allâ€™g 200 ypg (56%) with a 23-15 ratio.

Kentucky finished their season losing 4 of their last 5 after upsetting LSU. Florida St underachieved

for a 2nd straight year but did finish LY with a bowl win. The Wildcats and QB Woodson will get most

of the headlines while the Seminoles will be insulted as a bowl underdog for the 2nd straight year.

FSU has a significant def edge and will be able to slow Woodson while the FSU offense has talent

and speed and look for OC Fisher to open up the offense with a few new wrinkles.

FORECAST: FLORIDA ST (+) 31 Kentucky 24 RATING: 3★

These schools met once in 1930. Indiana snapped a 14 yr bowl drought & 12 straight losing ssns

in the midst of an emotional yr with the passing of HC Hoeppner in June. The Hoosiers are 3-5 in

bowls & 4-1 ATS S/â€™87. HC Lynch (1st IU HC to lead tm to bowl in debut ssn) guided Ball St to the â€˜96

Las Vegas Bowl (lost 18-15, but covered +6â€™). OSU is 11-6 SU in bowls (1-3-1 ATS S/â€™97), but hasnâ€™t

won B2B post season gms since â€˜87 & â€˜88. HC Gundy is 3-0 SU & ATS as a player/cch in bowls for

the Cowboys. Indiana is 23-19-6 vs current B12 teams, but hasnâ€™t played one S/â€™92. OSU is 1-8-1

vs the B10, including 0-2 SU & ATS in bowls. This is both teamsâ€™ 1st trip to the Insight Bowl which is

played on grass. Indiana (3-8 ATS) & OSU (4-8 ATS) both normally play on artificial turf. The Hoosiers

are 12-26 ATS as an AD and the Cowboys are 8-3 as an AF. Both teams played 8 bowl eligible foes

and Indiana was 3-5 SU (4-4 ATS) allâ€™g 432 ypg & only avg 354 ypg on offense. OSU was just 2-6 SU

(3-4-1 ATS) allâ€™g 479 ypg, but did avg 453 ypg on off. Both have 7 senior starters, but OSU has 14

upperclassmen (64%) while IU has 11 (50%). Indiana has had a extra wk of prep as they played their

last gm on Nov 17th. The Cowboysâ€™ Orange Brigade will be well represented but Indiana is offering

free tickets to students and has a sizable alumni base in Arizona.

Oklahoma St finished in the B12 South basement (1st tm other than Baylor) 2 yrs ago allowing

418 ypg. They improved on that LY by 54 ypg, but let DC Bedford go. Former Ohio St DB cch Beckman

was brought in as the new DC TY & the def allowed 447 ypg which was the most S/â€™88 (455 ypg). For

all the trouble with the def TY the spread off had its best yr under HC Gundy & OC Fedora avg 484

ypg (best ironically S/â€™88, 515 ypg) & the 2nd highest mark since 1940. QB Reid started the first 2

gms, but in a surprise move was benched for Robinson (single ssn rec for ttl yds, 3299) who has not

relinquished his duties. He did miss some time in the reg ssn finale, but X-rays only showed a bruised

shoulder so he should be 100% for the bowl. The rushing yds have gone up by 38 ypg from LY as the

ypc has increased each of the L/3Y (3.9, 5.2 & 5.4). RB Savage has topped 100+ yds in 9 straight. The

Cowboys are 1 of only two IA tms (Houston) to avg 230+ ypg in both rushing & passing. WR Bowman

should be 100% after missing 2.5 gms. The front seven is led by Sr DE Peterson (6â€™2â€™â€™ 240). The LB

corps suffered TY as 3 of the players on the preseason 2 deep were dismissed from the program. The

Cowboys rank #100 in our pass eff def giving up 292 ypg (66%) with a 25-12 ratio & clearly this is the

weakness of the tm as the leading tklr is a former WR. Oklahoma St is ranked #11 on offense, but just

#66 on the defensive side & comes in at #69 on STâ€™s.

After HC Hoeppner died of brain cancer in June, the team and interim HC Lynch dedicated the

2007 ssn to his memory with the goal of â€˜Playing 13â€™. IU started the season 5-1 but lost 3 in a row

before rebounding to win 2 of their L/3 to clinch an elusive bid and rightly rewarded Lynch with a 4

year contract extension. The Hoosiers are led by QB Lewis who is rewriting the teamâ€™s record book

as a soph. Lewis was also the tmâ€™s top rusher by default as the RBâ€™s struggled due to injâ€™s in â€˜07. The

WR corps is probably the deepest in IU history led by 6â€™7â€ NFL prospect Hardy who was #2 in the

NCAA in TD recâ€™s. Hoeppnerâ€™s â€œ7 Blocks of Limestoneâ€ OL recruiting class paid dividends with 3 starters

contributing to an off (#62) which avgâ€™d 4.2 ypc and allowed 30 sks. IUâ€™s D (#64) is small by B10

standards with none of the LBâ€™s weighing even 235 lbs. The front 7 was vulnerable vs the run allowing

199.6 ypg to bowl eligible tms but DE Middleton emerged as star as he led the nation in sks. IU set a

school record with 42 sks. The secondary features first day NFL prospect CB Porter and the Hoosiers

rank #61 in pass eff D. IU is #52 in STâ€™s led by Groza finalist K Starr who hit 10-11 from 40+ including

the game winning 49 yd FG which beat rival Purdue and clinched the Hoosiersâ€™ bowl bid.

IU set a goal of â€œPlaying 13â€ and reached that goal. You now have a team that is making their first

bowl appearance in 14 years and emotionally feel that this season is a success. Oklahoma St meanwhile

is in their 5th bowl in 6 years, knocked off an SEC opponent LY, and with a 6-6 record knows that a

loss makes this season a complete disappointment. OkSt has more offensive weapons and has been

much more competitive versus a far more difficult schedule (#15-77).

FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 38 Indiana 31 RATING: 1★

Less than 48 hours after the Chick-fil-A Bowl selected Clemson and Auburn, officials declared the

game a complete sellout. This will be the first meeting between these two since the â€˜98 Chick-fil-A Bowl,

won by Auburn 21-17 under Terry Bowden, Tommyâ€™s brother. AU is 32-11-2 in this series & has won each

of the L/12. This will be Clemsonâ€™s 30th bowl appearance (15-14 overall) and its 7th in the Chick-fil-A

(2-4). CU last appeared here in 2004 when it upset #6 Tennessee 27-14. CU is 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS under

Bowden in bowls. Overall Aub is making their 34th bowl appearance & this is their 8th straight bowl under

Tuberville (5-3 SU & ATS overall). Aub hasnâ€™t been a bowl dog since their â€˜02 upset of Penn St in the

Capital One Bowl. Aub is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in prior Peach Bowl appearances. Bowden served as an

assistant coach at Auburn from â€˜91-â€™96. Clemson is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS on the road TY, all as a fav but are

just 8-14-1 in that role under Bowden. Aub was 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) with 2 outright upsets as an AD TY &

is 10-3 as an AD since â€˜02. CU is 2-2 ATS on artificial turf under Bowden with both wins coming in bowl

gms. Aub last played in the Georgia Dome in the â€˜04 SEC Champ gm. AU faced the tougher schedule TY

(#29-51). Both tms have only 6 senior starters, but CU has 15 upperclassmen starting while Aub has 12.

CU has faced 9 bowl caliber teams (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS), outscoring them 31-20 & outgaining them 401-309.

Aub has faced 7 bowl tms (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) and was outscored 23-19 and outgained 326-283.

After rumors spread that Ark was interested in Bowden, CU offered him a contract extension. A

victory here would give the Tigers a 10 win season for the first time S/â€™90. QB Harper is #1 in the ACC

(#17 NCAA) in pass eff with a solid 27-6 ratio (TDâ€™s CU rec). RB Davis, who is 2nd in CU history in

career rushing with 3,058 yds, is CUâ€™s top RB & half of the â€œThunder-and-Lightningâ€ attack. The other

half is Spiller, who is not only the #2 rusher but #3 in recâ€™s. WR Kelly led the ACC in rec ypg & has set a

CU single ssn record in rec. The OL avg 6â€™5â€ 313 and is led by 4 senior starters who are opening holes

for 159 ypg rush (4.1) but did allow 32 sks (#99 NCAA). Both teams have Top 10 defenses and CUâ€™s D

is only allâ€™g 297 total ypg & 18 pts per gm. The DL avg 6â€™5â€ 278 and allâ€™d just 3.3 ypc rush, considering

they only had 26 sks (T#9 FSU in ACC). CU was +12 in TO margin (#2 ACC, #10 NCAA). DE Merling

leads the tm in sks & tfl but he also has the ability to drop back into pass coverage. Watkins and BIllie

are CUâ€™s top LBâ€™s and they have combined for almost 200 tkls. CU has our #20 pass eff D allâ€™g 185 ypg

(58%) with an 11-15 ratio, led by safeties Hamlin & Clemons. CUâ€™s K game struggled TY as PK Buchholz

who also played on CUâ€™s soccer team and many times had games the night before a FB game incl

driving down to Atlanta late Friday night to face GT & where his 4 missed FGâ€™s cost CU the game. He

also missed 2 vs BC incl one as time expired for yet another loss. Buchholz did however make the game

winner in their season finale as time expired for the 23-21 win vs SC.

Aubâ€™s ssn started out rough when they almost lost to KSt (14 pts scored in last 2:01 for 10 pt win),

then suffered B2B upsets at home vs USF & Miss St. Heading into the Swamp at the end of Sept, Aub

was a 17â€™ pt dog and brought Tebow to tears as true frosh PK Byrum hit the 43 yd gm winner twice to end

UFâ€™s 18 gm home win streak. After that Aubâ€™s ssn turned around with the only other losses being a close

loss to LSU and a mistake-filled loss to UGA (both BCS tms). Usually steady QB Cox struggled with a 2-6

ratio in the 1st 3 gms and had a 1-4 ratio in their blowout loss to UGA. True frosh bkup QB Burns actually

started the NMSt gm, but Cox came off the bench to lead the win and Burns served as a change of pace

mobile QB the rest of the yr. The running gm wasnâ€™t up to par early in the ssn, but improved significantly

once Lester retâ€™d from susp in gm 6. Aubâ€™s OL had 3 true frosh starters (24 sks allowed, 154 rush ypg,

3.7) which is another reason the offense finished #90, and led to the resignation of OC Borges prior to

the bowl. Aubâ€™s #9 D held Doak Walker winner McFadden to 43 yds & overall allowed 119 ypg (3.5) & 17

ppg. Aub finished #16 in our pass defense rankings allowing just 179 pass ypg. Tuberville was rumored

to be a candidate at TX A&M, LSU & Ark TY, but reportedly has agreed to return to Aub next year.

Tuberville called this gm a â€œtrue rivalryâ€ as the tms are close in proximity and recruit many of the same

players. These 2 teams are ranked #8 & #9 in our defensive ratings but Clemson has a large edge on offense.

Auburn was outgained on the season by 43 ypg vs bowl foes while Clemson outgained their bowl opponents

by 92 ypg. Clemsonâ€™s embarrassing bowl performance LY insures that Bowden has this team ready.

FORECAST: CLEMSON 19 Auburn 13 RATING: 2★

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 1:32am
0 likes

Dr Bob Bowls

3 Star Selection

***Georgia Tech (-4.5) 34 Fresno St. 20 (at Humanitarian Bowl - Boise) 11:00 AM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 massive attrition and theyâ€™ve been horrible defensively ever since. Fresno lost defensive line stars Jason Roberts and Jason Shirley after 3 games each and then lost DE Ikenna Ike a couple of weeks later. Starting strong safety Lorne Bell has since been added to that list, so the Bulldogs are down 4 defensive starters since the start of the season. Fresno State has not been able to stop the run since losing Roberts and Shirley, as the Bulldogs allowed 6.1 yards per rushing play in their final 9 regular season games (to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp against an average defense). The Bulldogs are only slightly worse than average defending the pass, but Georgia Tech wonâ€™t need to pass the ball in this game with their strong offensive line going up against Fresnoâ€™s weak defensive front. Georgia Tech has two great running backs in Tashard Choice (1310 yards at 5.3 ypr) and Jonathan Dwyer (374 yards at 5.3 ypr) and the Yellow Jackets also give running quarterback Josh Nesbitt a few series each game and heâ€™s run for 302 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play. Taylor Bennett is nothing special at quarterback (0.2 yards per pass play worse than average) but he wonâ€™t be asked to do much in this game, as my math model projects 7.2 yards per rushing play for Georgia Tech against that horrible Fresno defensive front.

Fresno State put up pretty good offensive numbers (5.9 yards per play) but the Bulldogs faced a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team and they are at a disadvantage against a solid Georgia Tech defense (4.8 yppl allowed to 11 Division 1A opponents that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets are good against the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp) and they have one of the best pass rushes in the nation, averaging 3.9 sacks per game, so they are likely to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Fresno, which is a good indicator of pointspread success. In fact, Georgia Tech applies to a statistical match-up indicator that is 28-3-2 ATS in bowl games.

Fresno State does have an advantage in special teams with All-American kick returner A.J. Jefferson, but Georgia Tech has an All-American punter and their special teams are good too. My math model favors Georgia Tech by 8 Â½ points and the indicator favoring the Yellow Jackets makes this an even better play. Fresno State is 25-8 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents under coach Pat Hill, but theyâ€™ve never had a defense as bad as this yearâ€™s edition. Iâ€™ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 Â½ or -7 points.

2 Star Selection

**Clemson (-1.5) 26 Auburn 16 (at Chick-fil-A Bowl at Atlanta) 04:30 PM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 Both of these teams are strong defensively, but Clemson has the better offense, isnâ€™t as likely to turn the ball over and has better special teams. Clemson has averaged 5.7 yards per play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Tigers are just average offensively after adjusting for the loss of big play receiver Jacoby Ford, who missed the final 4 regular season games and is out for this game. Ford averaged 18.2 yards on his 17 receptions and the Tigers have nobody to replace those yards with the other top receivers combining to average only 11.8 yards per catch. Ford also ran for 172 yards on just 14 rushing plays and Clemsonâ€™s rushing attack goes from 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average to 0.2 yprp better than average if you take Fordâ€™s numbers out. Clemson will have trouble moving the ball against a very good Auburn defense that has yielded just 4.6 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A opponents who would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.

Auburnâ€™s offense doesnâ€™t figure to do much either, as the Tigers were held to 4.8 yppl or lower in 8 of their 11 games against 1A opposition and averaged only 4.8 yppl overall in those games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Clemsonâ€™s defense yielded only 4.5 yppl in their 11 division 1A games to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so they have a 1.2 yppl advantage over Auburnâ€™s offense. Unfortunately, starting linebackers Nick Watkins (leading tackler) and Tramaine Billie (3rd leading tackler) are likely to miss this game due to bad academic standing, which affects the defense a bit. Neither player made a lot of impact defensive plays, as they combined for just 2 sacks and 5 other tackles for loss, so I donâ€™t expect a major drop in performance from the Tigersâ€™ defense - but Iâ€™ll dock the Tigers 0.2 yppl for their loss.

With Watkins and Billie out for Clemson, Auburn has a slight edge from the line of scrimmage, but Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has thrown just 6 interceptions on 400 passes (1.5%) while Auburnâ€™s Brandon Cox has thrown 12 picks on only 277 passes (4.3%). In a defensive battle turnovers will probably make the difference and Clemson is likely to win that battle while also having a slight edge in special teams. Overall my math model favors Clemson by 2 points in this game and Clemson applies to a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation at -3 points or less while also applying to a 70-28-2 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator (also if they are -3 or less).

Iâ€™ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points (-112 odds or better) or less. Iâ€™ll also lean with the Under at 45 points or higher.

Iâ€™ll play this game on the basis of the strong technical indicators and Iâ€™ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-115 odds or less) or more.

Cal (-3 Â½) vs Air Force: I lean slightly with Cal.

South Florida (-6 Â½) vs Oregon: I lean with Oregon.

Kentucky (-3) vs Florida State: No Opinion at this time with Florida State on the verge of suspensions being handed out. At this point Iâ€™d pick Kentucky by 3 points.

Oklahoma State (-4) vs Indiana: I lean with Oklahoma State.

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 1:32am
0 likes

MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: 6-9 ( lost 7 striaght!!)

Armed Forces Bowl Air Force by 10

Sun Bowl USF by 4

Humanitarian Bowl Fresno st by 2

Music City Bowl Florida st by 10

Insight Bowl Indiana by 7 *BEST BET*

Chick-Fil-A Bowl Clemson by 3

COLLEGE:

Monday, December 31st

ARMED FORCES BOWL

Amon G Carter Stadium â€¢ Fort Worth, TX

5★ BEST BET

A battle between two teams clearly headed in opposite

directions. Cal started the season in rip-roaring fashion,

jumping out to a 5-0 record and a Number 2 national ranking

before hitting the skids. The Bears then lost six of their fi nal

seven games (0-7 ATS) to limp into this bowl matchup with

a 6-6 record. First-year Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun

took over for the legendary Fisher DeBerry and responded

by leading the Flyboys to their best season since 2000 â€“ and

the Forceâ€™s fi rst bowl appearance since 2003. Every aspect of

todayâ€™s game seems to favor the Falcons. Military teams are

a strong 19-6 ATS as bowlers but improve to a dazzling 10-1

mark when outrushing their opponentsâ€¦ a virtual certainty

here since Air Forceâ€™s 299 rushing yards per game ranks second

in the nation. California has been less-than-golden when

taking on fellow bowlers, going 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 tries

in that role. Factor in Calâ€™s tendency to come apart down the

stretch (3-18 ATS from Game Eight out over the last four years)

and weâ€™re having a hard time understanding why these Pac

10 underachievers are laying points instead of getting them.

Off we go, into the wild blue yonderâ€¦

MUSIC CITY BOWL

LP Field â€¢ Nashville, TN

4★ BEST BET

FSU quarterback Drew Weatherford is no stranger to criticism

but he canâ€™t be blamed for making costly offensive mistakes:

Weatherford has not thrown an interception in his last 234

pass attempts. That consistency has been missing from Bobby

Bowdenâ€™s team in recent years but the ATS archives tell us olâ€™

Bobby knows what to do once he reaches postseason play.

The Seminoles are a profi table 17-10-1 ATS as bowlers under

Bowden (7-2-1 off a SU loss) and Florida State has excelled

when facing less than .600 SEC competition, going 11-1 SU

& 10-2 ATS in that role. Kentucky vaulted out to a 5-0 start

but limped home with a 2-5 fi nish, a performance that took

some of the luster off the Wildcatsâ€™ October 13th home upset

of then-Number One LSU. Our PLAYBOOK database tells us

that the Bluegrass Cats are just 3-13 SU & 6-9-1 ATS versus

a greater than .500 opponent off a double-digit ATS loss,

and SEC bowl favorites playing off back-to-back SU losses are

pointspread poision, dropping nine in a row to the number.

ACC bowlers are 9-4 ATS as a pick or dog versus SEC foes and

with FSU offi cials fi nally ironing out the â€˜Bowden-to-Fisherâ€™

coaching transition, look for a fully-focused Seminole squad

to go cat-skinninâ€™ today.

INSIGHT BOWL

Monday, December 31

INDIANA over Oklahoma St by 7

Handicapping college football

games is as much a measure

of common sense as it is the

accumulation of stats and edges.

Simple logic tells us the Hoosiers are

absolutely thrilled to be a participant in

this game. Playing most of the season

on guts and guile, they dedicated the

campaign to former head coach Terry

Hoeppner, who died of brain cancer

earlier in the year. They werenâ€™t the

prettiest team to come down the pike,

just the most emotional. Along the way

they managed to put 27 or more points

on the scoreboard in 10 of their 12

games. Going up against OSUâ€™s 104th

ranked defense, they appear poised to

do the same today. That sets the table

for perhaps the most remarkable of all

bowl stats, given the fact that pre-New

Years Day bowl dogs who score 27 or

more points are a mind-blowing 104-

14 ATS since 1980! Thatâ€™s not a typo.

Itâ€™s a stunning stat, to be sure. Add

in the fact that BIG 12 bowl favorites

are 2-10 ATS against BIG 10 foes and

weâ€™ve suddenly got enough to take us

over the edge. Common sense, stats

and edges. Next to a dog, theyâ€™re a

handicapperâ€™s best friend.

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 12:22pm
0 likes

THE SPORTS REPORTER:

ARMED FORCES BOWL

Amon G. Carter Stadium â€“ Fort Worth, TX

BEST BET

AIR FORCE over CALIFORNIA by 8

Excellent punishment for the Cal Bears. â€˜OK, kids, in return for losing six of your last

seven games, including the Big Game against Stanford, you get to be land-locked in Fort

Worth, TX and play defense against some Independent triple-option!â€™ Almost as exciting

as a new pair of pajamas for Christmas. Although he was sacked only six times all season

in 376 pass attempts, Calâ€™s quarterback Nate Longstiff saw his yards per attempt

drop to 6.8 from 8.0 a year ago, with a TD-INT ratio of 16-13 representing another

decline from his sophomore seasonâ€™s 24-13. One reason for the dip could be that RB

Marshawn Lynch, currently shredding tacklers in the NFL, meant a lot more to the Cal

offense than anybody realized. As the go-to back, Justin Forsettâ€™s 186 pounds doesnâ€™t

wear down defenses. Calâ€™s offense gained only 20.5 first downs per game this season

after gaining 20.2 last season, when the games were shorter. Air Forceâ€™s offense moved

the chains 21.2 times per game in â€™07 with a quarterback Shawn Carney that has put

in four years in the system, tweaked and enhanced by first-season head coach Troy

Calhoun and staff this year. Along the way, Air Force improved its relentless and elusive

ground attack from 4.1 yards per carry up to 5.4. That kind of production keeps the

opposing defense on the field a lot and forces the opposing offense to be near-perfect

when it has the ball. Longstiff and Co. may get a boost if WR DeSean Jackson returns

after missing the Cal game, but Cal did lose five out of the last six with the NFL-eyeing

wideout on the field, and Air Force has a senior-laden secondary. AIR FORCE, 28-20.

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 12:23pm
0 likes

THE MAX

Armed Forces Bowl @Fort Worth, TX

December 31, 2007 12:30 PM EST

California vs. Air Force

Opening Line: Cal â€“4Â½, 53Â½

Current Line: Cal â€“3Â½, 54

Analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

This is a terrific test of the school of thought that

the break before bowl games is an interruption of

momentum. These teams are at polar opposites

from a performance standpoint heading down the

stretch. After reaching #2 in the BCS after a

fortuitous win at Oregon, Cal not only lost their next

game, they lost six of seven, failing to cover a single

game. Air Force lost consecutive road games to BYU

and Navy, then won six of their final seven, covering

each of the seven games. If youâ€™re looking for

reversals of form in the bowls, hereâ€™s your game,

and you can go ahead and play 1-6 straight up, 0-7

against the spread over 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS.

What happened to Cal? Injuries killed Cal down the

stretch, and it would have been difficult to find a

unit more beat up than the Bears defense. Their

offense had fewer excuses. Chemistry was terrible.

DeSean Jackson, a Heisman candidate in

September, will probably go pro and a lot of people

in the Cal football program wonâ€™t shed any tears

over that. The defense gave up 239 yards rushing

to USC and then 334 yards rushing to Washington,

then the team lost to Stanford as a 13Â½-point

favorite. A weakness defending the run is not a

good sign when youâ€™re playing Air Force.

Air Forceâ€™s running game sparked their great year.

Their strength is the running game, as the Flyboys

ran for 298 yards per game and had 33 touchdown

runs. Troy Calhoun did a great job in his first year

and the experienced QB Shaun Carney (45 career

games) and play-any-position runner Chad Hall

excelled. Hall averaged nearly 180 yards per game

in the Falcons last seven games. And there is no

question that a service academy will always bring a

top effort. Can you say the same about Calâ€™s effort?

After all, this team was once #2 in the BCS

standings and had much, much higher dreams than

New Yearâ€™s Eve at a bowl game none of them even

knew existed. After the Stanford loss Cal safety

Thomas DeCoud said, â€œit's kind of too late to salvage

anything, but we just want to get to a bowl game

and end on the right note so the younger guys can

get this program back to where it was."

That hardly sounds like a motivated team, and Air

Forceâ€™s motivation is never, ever in question.

Obviously Cal has the better athletes, especially as

some of their players returned to health over the

break. But Air Force has the better football team,

and their motivation and crowd support will be

superior. No reversal of fortune projection for us.

Weâ€™ll take the points. Air Force by 4.

Sun Bowl @El Paso Texas

December 31, 2007, 2:00PM

South Florida vs. Oregon

Opening Line: USF â€“6Â½, 51Â½

Current Line: USF â€“6Â½, 52

Analysis by Erik Scheponik

When healthy, with their Heisman caliber Dennis

Dixon under center, the Oregon Ducks were

legitimately one of the nationâ€™s best teams with

perhaps the nationâ€™s best offense. However, that all

seems like a distant memory after the Ducks saw

their season go by the way side that Thursday night

in Arizona, when Dixon limped to the locker room

with a torn ACL. They were then shutout at UCLA

and lost a barnburner at home against rival Oregon

St. to end the season. They were down to their 4th

and 5th QBs to end the season after losing backup

Brady Leaf as well. I expect to see both Conner

Kempt and Justin Roper during this game, and it is

entirely possible that one of them takes a big step

forward practicing with the first unit during the

month of December. The QB position wasnâ€™t the

only MASH unit for Oregon the second half of the

season, and several key players remain out for this

bowl game. Stud RB Jonathan Stewart, a future

first round NFL draft pick, will likely be leaned on

heavily in this game as the young QBs face a tough

South Florida defense.

The Bulls were another team (there were about 20

this season!) that had national championship

aspirations at one point, ranking as high as #2 in

the nation in mid-October. After losing a tough

game at Rutgers, they then went into the customary

swoon that many teams that start 5 or 6-0 go

through, dropping the next game in bad weather at

Uconn, and then losing at home to Cincinnati. They

rallied to win the final 3 SU/ATS. Weâ€™ll have plenty

of time to see both conferences by the time this

contest rolls around, and there is NFL type talent at

several positions on their roster. Their D forced a

nationâ€™s best 41 TOâ€™s, and if they can keep Stewart

under wraps, they should win this game as Iâ€™m not

sure the Ducksâ€™ young, inexperienced QBâ€™s can

protect the ball against USFâ€™s pressure and

ballhawking secondary.

The Pac-10 is the superior conference, but South

Florida is the healthier team with a better, more

proven QB in Matt Grothe. They are more excited to

be here than UO, as this is the most prestigious

bowl the program has ever played in. However,

teams that come into bowl games red-hot SU/ATS

often cool off in a big way, and there are a couple of

angles that suggest fading the Bulls here. Weâ€™ll

have plenty of time to see both conferences by the

time this contest rolls around, and like itâ€™s

conference brother UCLA, weâ€™ll need to monitor

Oregonâ€™s injury situation as game time approaches.

Pass for now.

Humanitarian Bowl @Boise, Idaho

December 31, 2007 2:00 PM EST

Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State

Opening Line: GT â€“5, 55Â½

Current Line: GT â€“5Â½, 54Â½

Analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

This is a difficult situation for the Georgia Tech

Yellow Jackets. Following their loss to cross-state

rival Georgia, the Yellow Jacket brass fired coach

Chan Gailey, who had made a bowl game in every

season on the Flats (was also fired after making the

playoffs both years with the Dallas Cowboys). Paul

Johnson comes in from Navy with a spread option

offense that is the complete opposite of what has

been done here over the years. The wide receivers

are considering transferring while Johnson convinces

them that heâ€™ll pass the ball more with access to

BCS conference talent. But thoughts of transferring

are superceding the thoughts about this game.

And the players arenâ€™t the only ones distracted. Jon

Tenuta hoped to get the head job, but now the

interim coach is likely entertaining high-paying

options elsewhere (Les Miles has spoken openly of

Tenuta becoming his new defensive coordinator to

replace Bo Pelini, now the coach at Nebraska.

Factor in that with all the ACC destinations in warm

weather climates, Georgia Tech finds themselves in

Boise, Idaho today, and youâ€™ve got the perfect

recipe for a flat, disinterested performance.

Fresno State is a scrappy team that finds ways to

win. The Bulldogs pieced together a four game

winning streak in the middle of the season despite

being outgained in all four games. In the heart of

the season that can be seen as a sign of weakness.

But when analyzing how a team will do in a bowl

game against a distracted team, it is a sign of effort.

And there is no reason to question the effort that

Fresno State will give here. Pat Hillâ€™s teams are

always ready for action against the big boys, with a

pointspread mark of 22-8-1 in their last 31 games

against BCS Conference teams. and there will be

focus, enthusiasm, aggression, and hard hitting on

the Smurf Turf today.

Thereâ€™s some concern about Fresnoâ€™s pliable run

defense against Techâ€™s Tashard Choice, but the

Bulldogs improved down the stretch in that category

after some poor early performances and effort can

supercede what appear to be matchup advantages

on paper. Georgia Tech has already lost four times

as a favorite this season. Factor in their distraction

and thereâ€™s no reason not to look for more of the

same here. Fresno State beat a disinterested

Georgia Tech team in the 2002 Silicon Valley Classic

30-21 as 6Â½-point dog. Take the points with as the

hard-trying Bulldogs do it again. Fresno State by

3.

Music City Bowl @Nashville, Tennessee

December 31, 2007, 4:00 PM EST

Florida State vs. Kentucky

Opening Line: Kentucky -1, 56

Current Line: off the board

Analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

This will go down as probably our best call of the

bowls, as we were way ahead of the curve with

information about the Florida State suspensions, and

were able to confirm an internet report passed along

to us and share it with you when â€“1Â½ was still

widely available. Now that the suspensions are

public currency the game has come down off the

board and depending on who are among the 20+

suspended players, thereâ€™s not telling what this line

comes back at. Though this is a slap in the face for

FSU, they made a nice move this week by locking in

Jimbo Fisher to be their coach designate when

Bowden decides to retire. Fisher is largely filling the

role right now, as Bobby hangs out in the tower and

on his golf cart.

While it is difficult to make a comparison since we

donâ€™t know what FSU is bringing to the table, a few

notes about Kentucky. After his long no-INT streak,

Andre Woodson has come back to earth with 11

picks in the last 8 games. UK was 5-0 in September

but have won only twice since then. Big crowd

advantage for the Wildcats, as Nashville is right on

the interstate about 45 minutes from the state line

and an easy day trip from the Bluegrass. Be careful

with the scoring averages for the Wildcats, multiple

overtime games with LSU and Tennessee added 3

points per game to their offensive scoring average

and 2Â½ points to their defensive average.

Impossible to make a call right now, but if you laid

the point and a half when we emailed you youâ€™ll

have plenty of options by game day. Kentucky by

??????

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl @Atlanta, Georgia

December 31, 2007, 8:00 PM EST

Auburn vs. Clemson

Opening Line: Clemson â€“1Â½, 47

Current Line: Clemson â€“2Â½, 47

Analysis by Erik Scheponik

This â€œBattle of the Tigersâ€ is one of the better bowl

games out there as Southern bragging rights will be

on the line in the Georgia Dome. The Clemson

Tigers are making their record 8th Peach Bowl

appearance due to their late November home loss to

Boston College. Had the Tigers won that game they

would have played Virginia Tech in the ACC

Championship. Tommy Bowden was able to rally

the troops to a big revenge win over rival South

Carolina in the season finale. They feature one of

the nationâ€™s most talented backfields with

underrated QB Cullen Harper (27/6 ratio!), as well

as future NFL RBs James Davis and CJ Spiller, both

of whom can take a simple off tackle run or dump

off pass 50+ yards on any given carry. On defense

their strength is a disruptive front seven that held

bowl opposition to only 3.2 yards per rush. On the

season, CU outyarded bowlers by nearly 100 yards

per game and holds a +1.2 net yards per play

advantage over these Auburn Tigers.

However, although the ACC was improved this

season, and took baby steps towards narrowing the

gap vs. the SEC, that gap definitely still exists. The

bowl caliber teams faced by Auburn are a tougher

group than those faced by Clemson, and the SEC

was deep this season, featuring many explosive

offenses. Despite drawing the two most talented

teams and offenses from the East in Georgia and

Florida on the road, as well as divisional foes LSU

and Arkansas on the road, the War Eagle defense

allowed only 4.7 ypplay in conference action, a

strong number indeed. Against teams that rely on

big plays out of the running game, Arkansas and

Florida, AU allowed 17 and 7 points respectively.

Much like last season, their problems were on

offense where they went for only 18 points per

game, and 4.3 ypplay against bowlers. Spread guru

Tony Franklin was hired last week to replace Al

Borges as offensive coordinator, but its uncertain

how much of his offense, a totally foreign attack,

will be implemented for this game.

Clemson has some statistical advantages in this

game, but Bowden is only 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in bowl

action, and Iâ€™m in no hurry to lay points into

Tubervilleâ€™s 20-13 ATS mark as an underdog, or an

SEC team with road wins at Arkansas and Florida

under their belt as well as a loss at LSU where they

led for about 50 minutes of the game. Instead, Iâ€™ll

play the under based on two strong, sub-300 yard

per game defenses, (I have Auburnâ€™s rated as a top

10 unit) and AUâ€™s offensive weaknesses and

uncertainties. 21-20 either way! Go under.

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 12:23pm
0 likes

THE GOLD SHEET ( 7-8 )

UNDER (54) in the Fresno State-Georgia Tech game

Air Force 27 - California 24

Kentucky 31 - Florida State 24

Fresno State 27 - Georgia Tech 23

South Florida 35 - Oregon 23

Indiana 35 - Oklahoma State 34

Auburn 23 - Clemson 21

THE SPORTS MEMO 13-2 so far

Air Force +3.5

Fresno State +5

South Florida -6

Kentucky/Florida State Over 56

Indiana +4

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS 12-3 so far

CALIFORNIA 38 Air Force 27 RATING: 2★

OREGON (+) 21 South Florida 23 RATING: 2★

FRESNO ST (+) 30 Georgia Tech 24 RATING: 4*

FLORIDA ST (+) 31 Kentucky 24 RATING: 3★

OKLAHOMA ST 38 Indiana 31 RATING: 1★

CLEMSON 19 Auburn 13 RATING: 2★

Jon Campbell FROM COVERS 7-8 so far

Air Force +3.5

Fresno State +4 Â½

South Florida -6 Â½

Kentucky -1

Indiana +4 Â½

Auburn +2

WINNING POINTS ( 9-6)

AIR FORCE over CALIFORNIA by 3

SOUTH FLORIDA over OREGON by 10

GEORGIA TECH over FRESNO STATE by 3

KENTUCKY over FLORIDA STATE by 7

OKLAHOMA STATE over INDIANA by 5

AUBURN over CLEMSON by 3

EROCKMONEY ( 9-6 SO FAR)

Air Force by 7 Recommended Play (rank - 6th)

GT by 2 Recommended Play (rank - 13th)

S Florida by 6 Recommended No Play

Kentucky by 4 Recommended Play (rank - 12th)

Clemson by 5 Recommended Play (rank - 14th)

Oklahoma St. by 5 Recommended No Play

DR BOB ( 7-7)

***Georgia Tech (-4.5) 34 Fresno St.

**Clemson (-1.5) 26 Auburn 16

Slight lean Calif.

Lean towards Oregon

Kentucky by 3 points

Lean with Oklahoma State

VEGAS HOTSHEET ( 8-11 SO FAR)

CAL -3Â½

S FLORIDA -6Â½

FRESNO ST +4Â½

FLORIDA ST +3Â½

COMP play: Florida St/Kentucky UNDER 56Â½

INDIANA +4

CLEMSON -2

MARC LAWRENCE BOWL PREDICTIONS: 6-9 so far

5* Best Bet Air Force by 10

USF by 4

Fresno st by 2

4* Best Bet Florida st by 10

BEST BET Indiana by 7

Clemson by 3

ANDY ISKOE COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS ( 6-10 SO FAR )

5 Star Air Force over California

5 Star Oregon over South Florida

No Selection Fresno State vs Georgia Tech

No Selection Florida State vs Kentucky

1 Star Indiana over Oklahoma State

4 Star Clemson over Auburn

Mighty Quinn 7-7 so far. Gotta be eatin Dino up haha

Air force + 3 1/2

Fresno + 4 1/2

Sfla - 6 1/2

Kent -1

Indy +4

Auburn +2

KODIAK

15 unit Fresno St +5

10 unit Air Force +3.5

Pointwise phones

4* Air Force

4* Fresno St.

4* South Florida

THE SPORTS REPORTER

AIR FORCE over CALIFORNIA by 8

CKO

UNDER (54) in the Fresno State-Georgia Tech

AUBURN (+2)

THE MAX-Kevin Oâ€™Neill

Air Force by 4

Fresno State by 3

Kentucky by ??????

The Max-Erik Scheponik

Auburn vs. Clemson Under

WILD BILL

Clemson -2 (1 unit)

Fresno State + 4 (1 unit)

California -3 (1 unit)

Indiana + 3 1/2 (2 units)

Over 54 1/2 GT- Fresno State (1 unit)

Over 69 Okla St- Indiana (2 units)

HQ Newsletter Bowl Games

Comp Indiana vs Oklahoma St OVER

AAA

Auburn +2.5 Unit Value: 2

Oklahoma State -4 Unit Value: 2

TOBY SCOTT

AIR FORCE

FERRINGO FOOTBALL

2-Unit Play Kentucky (-9)

3.5-Unit Play South Florida (-6)

Strike Point Football

4-Unit Play Indiana +4

5-Unit Play Clemson -2

Ted Sevransky

20* Bowl Total of year Over 54 Air Force

comp- Auburn +2.5

Teddy Covers

South Fla -6

Fresno St +6

Auburn +3 -120

Nellys bowl GOY..

AIR FORCE +3.5..

Arthur Ralph

Superpicks: Cal/Air Force Over

Regular Play Oregon

Regular Play Air Force

Regular Play Indiana

Comp Fresno State

Tim Trushel

Regular play California

Regular play Fresno St.

Alex Smart

2 unit Oregon

Dave Malinsky Free Advice

4* SOUTH FLORIDA over OREGON

Point Train

10-UNIT BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (-4.5)

Tom Scott

FRESNO STATE plus the points.

Globalwide Sports

Kentucky -9.5

Dr. Vegas

Auburn over Clemson.

Wayne Root

Chairman-Air Force

BEN POWERS

california over 55

fresno st. under 55

clemson under 46'

Ethan Law (Thank You Ethan! Happy New Year!)

1* CALIFORNIA -4.5

Small opinion OREGON +6.5

Small opinion GEORGIA TECH -6

Larry Ness

Bowl underdog GOY Fresno St

Rocco Spacamuro

100*Fresno St +6

Real Animal

Comp 2* Frenso ST + the points

Sharp Betting

Air Force

Geo Tech

S Florida

Clemson

BEN BURNS

Sunbowl Blowout Under Ore/USF

Personal Favorite Clemson

Dec GOM Indiana

LT Profits

Best Bet- Oregon

Comp- Air Force +3.5

Comp- Florida State +4.5

JEFF BENTON

Comp 3♦ FLORIDA STATE

Michael Cannon

Comp 3♦ KENTUCKY

Frank Rosenthal

AIR FORCE+5 SB

OVER 54.5 SB+

OREGON+6.5 SB

UNDER 52.5 SB

FRESNO ST+6.5 SB

UNDER 55 SB

KY-9 SB

UNDER 58 SB

OK ST-4 SB

OVER 68 SB

AUBURN+2.5 SB

UNDER 47 SB+

Bob Balfe

Air Force/California Over 55.5

Oregon/South Florida Under 52

Georgia Tech -6 over Fresno State

Florida State +9.5 over Kentucky

Indiana +5 over Oklahoma State

Clemson -2.5 over Auburn

Matt O'Shea

AIR FORCE-SINGLE DIME

S.FLA-DOUBLE DIME

GT UNDER-SINGLE DIME

KENT/FSU OVER-SINGLE DIME

OK ST/IND OVER-DOUBLE DIME

CLEMSON-SINGLE DIME

Cappers Access

4- Air Force

5 Indiana

2- Clemson

Mike Rose comp

South Florida -6.0

D. Malinsky - Big Six

6* - Auburn (+2.5)

THEERODFATHER

AIR FORCE+4.5 15 UNITS

FRESNO ST+6 15 UNITS

OKIE STATE-5 35 UNIT HITT PLAY

KENTUCKY -9.5 35 UNIT HITT PLAY

OREGON+6 25 UNIT HITT PLAY

CLEMSON-2 15 UNITS

KT--FLA STATE WAY OVER 58 25 UNIT HITT PLAY

J Whip

AF triple dime

ATS LOCK

8 Ok St. -4 1/2

6 Auburn +2 1/2

1 unit parlay

4 California -3 1/1

ATS FINANCIAL

4 Fresno +6

4 Florida St. +9 1/2

3 So Florida -6

PSYCHIC

2 units California -4.5

3 units South Florida -6

2 units Fresno +6

3 units Florida State +9.5

3 units Indiana +5

4 units Clemson -2.5 MAJOR

TOUTHOUSE

Air Force +3.5

Florida State +4.5

South Florida -6.0 ????

Auburn +2.5

Keith Martin Sports

Oregon Over 51.5 CFB

Johnny Guild

Air Force Falcons +4.5

Indiana Hoosiers +4.5

Indy/Okie St Over - 69

Rob Veno

Bluechip O/U Report: AF/CAL OVER

Mike ~ Rose

Air Force +4

Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day

Oklahoma State

Lenny 20* Stevens

10 star air force

10 star fresno state

10 star clemson

yourwinningpicks college football

Best bet Georgia Tech (-4.5)

Oklahoma State (-4)

Best bet Clemson (-1.5)

Best bet Kentucky (-3)

South Florida (-6.5)

California (-3.5)

Moneyline Plays

Oregon Ducks +200

Globalwide Sports

Kentucky -9.5

USA Sports Consulting

Fresno State +5.5 (-105)

BRW Sports Advisors

Indiana / Oklahoma State Over 69

Bob Harvey Sports

Air Force / California Under 54.5

BIG AL-COMP

-4.5 California

MR A

California - 3.5

South Florida - 6.5

Fresno State + 5.5

Kentucky - 3

Auburn + 2.5

Oklahoma State - 4

MJP sports

OREGON 6.5

ARMVIN SPORTS

FRESNO STATE 6

FRESNO STATE at GEORGIA TECH Under 54

Van Winkle Sports

Best Bet AIR FORCE at CALIFORNIA Over 54

Mike Rose

AIR FORCE at CALIFORNIA Over 54

OREGON 6

OREGON at SOUTH FLORIDA Over 52

GEORGIA TECH -6

FRESNO STATE at GEORGIA TECH Over 54.5

INDIANA at OKLAHOMA STATE Over 68.5

AUBURN 2.5

AUBURN at CLEMSON Under 46.5

FLORIDA STATE 10

FLORIDA STATE at KENTUCKY Under 58

Northcoast / Phil Steele

Inside Information Play Oklahoma State -4.5

Norm Hitzges

Double Play Air Force +4 vs California

Single Play Fresno +6 vs Georgia Tech

Single Play Oregon +6 vs So. Florida

Single Play Indiana +5 vs Oklahoma State

Single Play Auburn/Clemson Under 46.5

PPP/Gavozzi

1*Cal

3*Cal over

1*S Florida

1*Fresno

1*Florida St

4*Okie St

1*Auburn

3*Auburn under

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 12:27pm
0 likes

Larry Ness

Bowl underdog GOY-- Fresno St

Ness Insider ---------S. FLA

-------------------------------

BEN BURNS

Sunbowl Blowout Under Ore/USF

Personal Favorite ----Clemson

Dec GOM -------------Indiana

-------------------------------

Spreitzer

20*----------------- Air Force

TKO GOM----------- Fresno St

-------------------------------

Big Al

Bowl Favorites--------Fla State

100% SUN BOWL ----Oregon Ducks

BLOWOUT WINNER.---Fresno St

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 12:34pm
0 likes

ATS LOCK

8 Ok St. -4 1/2

6 Auburn +2 1/2

1 unit parlay

4 California -3 1/1

Hoops

4 Xavier -7 1/2

```````````````````````````````````````````````

TUESDAY

8 Georgia -7 1/2

7 Florida -10 1/2

6 USC -13 1/2

1 unit round robin

Hoops

3 Wich St.

ATS FINANCIAL

4 Fresno +6

4 Florida St. +9 1/2

3 So Florida -6

Hoops

4 Marshall -3

``````````````````````````````````````````````````

TUESDAY

5 Arkansas +3 1/2

4 Wisconsin +2

3 Virginia +6

Hoops

3 Alabama

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 12:36pm
0 likes

1. Ats 1t 8- Okla St, 6- Aub, 4-cal

2. Bankers 1t 400- Af, Ind

3. Ben Burns Ind, Clem, Oreg Under

4. Big Money Ok St

5. Blazer 4 5-ore, 3-af And Over, Fla St Over

6. Carolina Sports 4-fres, 3-oreg, Okla St

7. Doc Enterprises 5 Pass

8. Dr. Bob 3-gtech, 2-clem

9. Gameday 3 3-fres, 2-aub

10. Inside Info 3-ky, 2-cal

11. Joe D 25-aub, 15- Oreg, Fres

12. Lenny Stevens 10-af, Fres, Clem

13. Lt Profits 3-oreg, 2-fres, Ind

14. Nationwide (goldst) 6 Reg: Fres And Under

15. Neri 4-cal, 3- Over

16. Northcoast 4- Cal, 3-fres, Fla St

17. Pointwise 4-af, Fres, So Fla

18. Preferred Picks 3-af, Ind

19. Private Players 4-okla St, 3-cal Over, Auburn Under

20. Score 100-clem, Fres, 300- Ky, Cal

21. Underdog Pass

22. Pure Lock Pass

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 1:52pm
0 likes

Tally...through post 80

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Air Force

Arthur Ralph

THE GOLD SHEET......................Air Force 27 - Cal 24

Pointwise...................AIR FORCE 31 - Cal 30 RATING: 3

pointwise phones...................(4*) Air Force

THE SPORTS MEMO

Jon Campbell

MARC LAWRENCE...................5★ BEST BET

Mighty Quinn

KODIAK...................10units

THE SPORTS REPORTER...................best bet

Kevin O'neill's THE MAX

Toby Scott

Nellys bowl GOY

TOUTHOUSE

Sharp Betting

Mike Rose

Matty O'Shea

Frank Rosenthal

J Whip

Cal

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS......................CAL 38 AF 27 RATING: 2★

VEGAS HOTSHEET

WILD BILL

Tim Trushel

PSYCHIC...................2 units

Ethan Law

ATS LOCK

Over

Arthur Ralph......................Superpicks: Cal/Air Force Over

Ted Sevransky

BEN POWERS

Rob Veno

Frank Rosenthal

Bob Balfe

Under

*************************************

Fresno St

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS......................FRESNO ST (+) 30 Georgia Tech 24 RATING: 4*

THE GOLD SHEET......................Fresno State 27 - Georgia Tech 23

Pointwise...................FRESNO STATE 27 - Georgia Tech 24 RATING: 1

pointwise phones

THE SPORTS MEMO

Jon Campbell

VEGAS HOTSHEET

MARC LAWRENCE

Mighty Quinn

KODIAK...................15units

Kevin O'neill's THE MAX

WILD BILL

Teddy Covers

Tim Trushel

Tom Scott

PSYCHIC...................2 units

Larry Ness...................bowl underdog GOY

Rocco Spacamuro...................100*

L.T. Profits

Frank Rosenthal

ATS FINANCIAL

Georgia Tech

Dr Bob......................***Georgia Tech (-4.5) 34 Fresno St. 20

Sharp Betting

Bob Balfe

Over

WILD BILL...................2units

Under

THE GOLD SHEET...................CKO

BEN POWERS

Matty O'Shea

Frank Rosenthal

*************************************

Oregon

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS......................ORE (+) 21 S Fla 23 RATING: 2★

Arthur Ralph

MARC LAWRENCE

alex smart...................2units

L.T. Profits

Frank Rosenthal

S. Fla

THE GOLD SHEET......................South Florida 35 - Oregon 23

Pointwise...................SOUTH FLORIDA 34 - Oregon 17 RATING: 2

pointwise phones

THE SPORTS MEMO

Jon Campbell

VEGAS HOTSHEET

Mighty Quinn

FERRINGO

Teddy Covers

Malinsky...................4*

PSYCHIC...................3 units

TOUTHOUSE

Sharp Betting

Matty O'Shea

ATS FINANCIAL

Over

Under

Ben Burns

Frank Rosenthal

Bob Balfe

*************************************

Fla State

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS......................FLORIDA ST (+) 31 Kentucky 24 RATING: 3★

VEGAS HOTSHEET

MARC LAWRENCE...................4★ BEST BET

PSYCHIC...................3 units

TOUTHOUSE

Bob Balfe

ATS FINANCIAL

Kentucky

THE GOLD SHEET......................Kentucky 31 - Florida State 24

Pointwise...................KENTUCKY 34 - Florida State 24 RATING: 2

Jon Campbell

Mighty Quinn

Kevin O'neill's THE MAX

FERRINGO

Globalwide Sports

Frank Rosenthal

Over

THE SPORTS MEMO

Matty O'Shea

Under

Frank Rosenthal

*************************************

Ok State

Pointwise...................OK ST 44 - Indiana 30 RATING: 3

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS......................OK ST 38 Indiana 31 RATING: 1★

AAA

Point Train...................10-UNIT BOWL GOY

Frank Rosenthal

Vegas Experts

ATS LOCK...................8 units

Indiana

Arthur Ralph

THE SPORTS MEMO

Jon Campbell

VEGAS HOTSHEET

MARC LAWRENCE

Mighty Quinn

WILD BILL

Strike Point

PSYCHIC...................3 units

Ben Burns

Bob Balfe

Over

WILD BILL...................2units

Matty O'Shea

Frank Rosenthal

Under

*************************************

Auburn

Jon Campbell

Mighty Quinn

THE GOLD SHEET...................CKO

AAA

Teddy Covers

Dr. Vegas

TOUTHOUSE

Malinsky...................6*

Frank Rosenthal

ATS LOCK

Clemson

Pointwise...................CLEMSON 24 - Auburn 17 RATING: 6

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS......................CLEMSON 19 Auburn 13 RATING: 2★

Dr Bob......................**Clemson (-1.5) 26 Auburn 16

VEGAS HOTSHEET

MARC LAWRENCE

WILD BILL

Strike Point

PSYCHIC...................4 units

Ben Burns

Sharp Betting

Matty O'Shea

Bob Balfe

Over

Under

Kevin O'neill's THE MAX

BEN POWERS

Frank Rosenthal

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 1:58pm
0 likes

NESS LEGEND ( FB 11-3 ):

SPORTS MEMO ( Bowls 13-2):

AIR FORCE

FRESNO STATE

SOUTH FLORIDA

INDIANA

Florida State/Kentucky OVER

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS :

Double (7-0):

Rated Plays (7-0):

4* FRESNO STATE

3* FLORIDA STATE ( Hmmmm.)

2* CALIFORNIA

2* OREGON

2* CLEMSON

1* OKLAHOMA STATE

*- Added Plays -

TEDDY COVERS :

- Bowl TOTAL of the Year -

20* California/Air Force OVER

NELLY'S :

- Bowl Game of the Year -

AIR FORCE

KELSO :

- 100 Unit Bowl Play -

100* OKLAHOMA STATE

ROOT :

-NO LIMIT Bowl GAME-OF-THE-YEAR -

OREGON

- BILLIONAIRE ( 10-4 )-

CLEMSON

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 2:05pm
0 likes

SERVICE REPORT

ATS Lock Club................8*Oklahoma State

.......................................6*Auburn

.......................................4*Fresno St & Florida St

A-Play.............................VIP Play: SFla/Ore(U)

Blazer.............................5*Oregon

Brandon Lang.................15*California

........................................5*Fresno St & South Florida

Dave Cokin......................Under The Hat: Auburn

........................................Window Play: South Florida

........................................System Play: Florida State

........................................3*Fresno St & Oklahoma St

Director Sports................Air Force, Ga Tech, Kentucky, Clemson

Doctor Bob......................3*Georgia Tech

........................................2*Clemson

Frank Magliosa...............Florida St

Glen McGrew..................Best Bet: Cal/AF(O)

Guarantee Picks.............Auburn

Jim Feist.........................Personal Best: Georgia Tech

.......................................5*South Florida

Joe Gavazzi(PPP)...........4*Oklahoma St

.......................................3*Cal/AF(O) & Clem/Aub(U)

.......................................Opinions: Calif, SFla, FSU, Fresno, Auburn

Kelso Sturgeon...............100*Oklahoma State

........................................5*South Florida & Kentucky

........................................3*Fresno State

Las Vegas Sports............10*Oklahoma St & California

Lenny Stevens................10*Air Force, Fresno St & Clemson

Marc Lawrence...............Indiana

Northcoast.......................3*Fresno St & Florida State

........................................Opinion: Oregon, Okla St & Clemson

Randy Radtke..................Auburn & Florida State

Sports Bank....................500*Georgia Tech

Sports Doctor..................100*KY/FSU(O)

........................................75*Indiana

SCORE............................400*Fresno ST & Clemson

.......................................300*Kentuck y

VIP Lock Club.................100*Bowl Game Of The Year: Oregon

Wayne Root....................Billionaire: Clemson

.......................................Millionaire : Indiana

.......................................Inner Circle: Florida State

.......................................No Limit Bowl Game Of The Year: Oregon

.......................................Chairman Of The Board: Fresno State

Windy City Sports...........Bowl Game Of The Year: Georgia Tech

Winners Path..................California & Oregon

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 3:48pm
0 likes

Tuesday, January 1st

Outback Bowl

Tampa, Florida

TV: ESPN

Wisconsin vs. Tennessee, 11:00am ET

Game Preview by Carlo Campanella

Wisconsin:

10-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

39-22 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Tennessee:

5-1 Under off BB games with 40+ pass attempts

8-3 Under off 3+ conference games

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AT&T Cotton Bowl

Dallas, Texas

TV: FOX

Arkansas vs. Missouri, 11:30am ET

Game Preview by Larry Ness

Arkansas:

7-1 ATS off BB games allowing 31+ points

15-4 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points

Missouri:

24-7 Over after committing 1 or 0 turnovers

7-3 Over off a loss by 21+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, Florida

TV: ABC

Michigan vs. Florida, 1:00 ET

Game Preview by Al McMordie

Michigan:

0-5 ATS after having 100 or less rushing yards

3-7 ATS off a straight up loss

Florida:

9-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

6-1 ATS off an ATS win as a favorite of 10+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, Florida

TV: CBS

Texas Tech vs. Virginia, 1:00 ET

Game Preview by Brian Hansen

Texas Tech:

0-8 ATS away off a conference win

0-7 ATS away off an ATS win

Virginia:

10-2 Under off a straight up loss

8-1 Under after having 100 or less rushing yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rose Bowl presented by Citi

Pasadena, California

TV: ABC

Illinois vs. USC, 4:30 ET

Game Preview by Scott Spreitzer

Illinois:

7-1 ATS off a straight up win

10-2 ATS away after scoring 37+ points

USC:

9-2 Under as a favorite

7-1 Under off a conference game

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sugar Bowl

New Orleans, Louisiana

TV: FOX

Hawaii vs. Georgia, 8:30 ET

Game Preview by Ben Burns

Hawaii:

7-1 Under off 7+ wins

6-1 Under playing on artificial turf

Georgia:

17-5 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

21-9 ATS away off an Under

posted by phantom

Dec. 31 2007 9:39pm
0 likes

happy new year fellas!

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 6:42am
0 likes

THE GOLD SHEET ( 9-12 )

OUTBACK BOWL

WISCONSIN (9-3) vs. TENNESSEE (9-4)

Tuesday, January 1 Day at Tampa, FL (Grass Field)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Wisconsin11 8-3 4-7 29 23 197 213 38-24-14 141 207 30-15-15 -1 1.3 11.4

Tennessee13 9-4 8-4 33 28 145 255 53-18-31 163 245 44-14-24 +6 2.6 8.5

Tennessee 31 - Wisconsin 24â€”

Both had higher expectations and hopes for

this season, but Wisconsin finished 4th in the Big Ten after a 12-1 mark in â€™06

and being ranked No. 5 in October, while Tennessee lost the SEC title game

against LSU following a roller-coaster campaign that saw UT alternately lose

and win by more than 14 points in four September games. However, playing on

New Yearâ€™s Day (even if it is the early Outback Bowl) can hardly be considered

an unsuccessful season. The Badgersâ€™ year was marked by offensive

inconsistency caused in succession by the adjustment of new starting QB Tyler

Donovan, injuries to their top two wide receivers, and an injury to star RB P.J.

Hill. Donovan finished the season with 2452 YP, 58%, 16 TD passes & 10 ints.

Hill should be close to 100% for this game after being held to 1104 YR (1569 in

â€™06) due to nagging groin & leg problems, and backup Lance Smith-Williams,

who was prohibited from traveling with the team during the season, will be

available for this game. Top WR Luke Swanâ€™s torn hamstring vs. Illinois ended his

season, although 6-4 sr. Paul Hubbard returned from a knee injury to play in the last

5 games and had an excellent day in upset of Michigan, catching 7 passes for 134

yards, but was held without a catch in finale against Minnesota. All-American TE

Travis Beckum (73 catches) was the main receiver during the year, although he

could still be feeling the effects of a shoulder injury. UW wonâ€™t be 100% on defense,

as CB Allen Langford is being disciplined and his backup is true frosh Aaron

Henry. Jr. DT Jason Chapman was injured against Ohio State and is also out.

Tennessee owns a couple of edges that point us toward the Vols. QB Erik

Ainge has had a magnificent season, throwing for 3123 yards & 29 TDs,

including 12 in the last 3 games. The ground game was potent as well, as Arian

Foster gained 1162 yards & scored 14 TDs despite operating behind an OL that lost

starting OT Eric Young after he was injured against South Carolina. The offense

will also be without leading receiver Lucas Taylor (73 recs., 1000 yds.), who ran into

academic problems. On the plus side, highly respected offensive coordinator

David Cutcliffe will direct the attack one more time before taking on the head

coaching assignment at Duke, and recent return to action of 6-8 TE Brad Cottam

(94 rec. yds. in last two games) will serve Ainge well as another primary target.

Phil Fulmerâ€™s defense improved significantly as the season wore on, allowing

just 23 ppg in the last 6 games after yielding more than 32 ppg in the first 7.

Academics took a couple of contributors on defense after the SEC

Championship game, as starting LB Rico McCoy and DT Demonte Bolden were

ruled ineligible along with Taylor (and a few other bit part players). However, the

linchpins of the defense are star MLB Jerod Mayo, a consensus all-SEC pick

averaging 10 tackles per game, and sr. S Jonathan Hefney (also all-SEC; who

will make his 50th start in this game), both still available.

We believe the injury/suspension situation is about a wash. In addition to the

edge Ainge holds, two other angles weighed in our decision. Wisconsin didnâ€™t

cover a game away from Madison this season, and the Badger defense fell off

noticeably from last year (allowed 154 more yds. & 11 more points per game

than 2006). Improving Tennessee is 8-2 in its last 10 games, and Fulmer will

remind his team of last seasonâ€™s 20-10 loss to underdog Big Ten foe Penn State

in this same bowl. (DNP...SR: Tenn. 1-0)

COTTON BOWL

ARKANSAS (8-4) vs. MISSOURI (11-2)

Tuesday, January 1 Day at Dallas, TX (Grass Field)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PFPA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFFOPR

Arkansas 11 7-4 6-4 40 27 300 165 57-29-23 147 229 35-13-20 +8 2.6 12.6

Missouri 12 10-2 9-3 40 25 159 327 60-24-31 116 263 40-18-17 +13 3.0 8.0

Missouri 41 - Arkansas 34â€”

In a game featuring loads of point-generating

performers on both teams and good-but-not-great defenses, Missouriâ€™s better

balance and QB excellence are likely to be the decisive differences. This is not

to disrespect Arkansas in any way. TGS scouts report the Razorbacks have

recovered rapidly from the departure of Houston Nutt and distractions of Bobby

Petrinoâ€™s hiring, with interim HC Reggie Herring (defensive coordinator the L3Ys;

reportedly headed to A&M after game) praising his playersâ€™ conscientiousness &

spirit in preparation, saying â€œWe have them right where we want them.â€

Herring has reportedly added more variations to the attackâ€™s â€œWild Hogâ€ sets,

which feature A-A RB Darren McFadden (1725 YR, 5.7 ypc, 4 TD passes TY)

operating behind a much-decorated OL (C Jonathan Luigs won the Rimington

Award). Felix Jones (1117 YR, 9.1 ypc; 2 KOR TDs) is also a constant threat,

FB/H-B Peyton Hillis led the team in recs. (44), and 6-6 star WR Marcus Monk

(27 career TDs, but only 4 TY) is expected to be 90-95% after missing the bulk

of the season following two knee surgeries in August.

However, the Arkansas defense proved vulnerable to competent passers

TY, giving up 41 points at Alabama, 42 vs. Kentucky, 36 vs. South Carolina, 34 at Tennessee, and 48 at LSU (in overtime). And QB Casey Dick (57%,

18 TDs, 9 ints.), although improved, still has limitations.

That means the door is open for QB Chase Daniel (69.7%, 4170 YP, 33 TDs, 10 ints.) and

the multi-dimensional Tiger spread offense, which strikes repeatedly and effectively at

defensive weaknesses. With Daniel mobile enough to buy time and tough enough to put his

head down and run, Mizzou was second in the nation in third-down conversions at 53%.

Clutch TEs Martin Rucker & Chase Coffman combined for 132 recs. & 15 TDs, while RB Tony

Temple (758 YR) led a capable RB corps. But the new addition who helped boost the Tigers

to the top of the BCS rankings going into December is speed-burning RS frosh WR/RB/KR

Jeremy Maclin, who had 77 recs. & 9 TDC, plus 4 TDs rushing, 2 on punt returns, and 1 on

kickoff returns.

Tiger HC Gary Pinkel says his teamâ€™s focus & effort are the best heâ€™s seen, and heâ€™s been

surprised by his teamâ€™s youthful quickness on defense, especially after losing playmaking S

Pig Brown in the eighth game. Fired-up Mizzou fans have gobbled up tickets as fast as the

Hog backers.

If you love watching offense on New Yearâ€™s Day, this is your bowl. But as a small favorite,

the Daniel-led Tigers are the choice. (DNP...SR: Tennessee 1-0)

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

MICHIGAN (8-4) vs. FLORIDA (9-3)

Tuesday, January 1 Day at Orlando, FL (Grass Field)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Michigan 11 8-3 6-5 26 19 159 205 36-15-21 150 175 23-14-8 +5 2.9 11.8

FLORIDA 11 8-3 8-3 43 26 199 259 63-33-25 104 257 34-16-16 +1 3.1 8.6

FLORIDA 38 - Michigan 34â€”

The demanding Michigan faithful finally got

their wish, as longtime head coach Lloyd Carr tendered his resignation

following a 4th straight loss to rival Ohio State in this yearâ€™s regular-season

finale. Early on, it appeared that the beleaguered Carr might be forced out

before finishing 2007, as the Wolverines followed a mortifying loss to

Appalachian State in their opener at Ann Arbor with a humbling 39-7 home

defeat at the hands of Oregon. But UM made things interesting, winning its

next 8 games before dropping the final 2 (at Wisconsin & vs. Buckeyes) to

seal Carrâ€™s fate. Former West Virginia mentor Rich Rodriguez takes charge

of the Wolverines after this game, and heâ€™s already notified the current UM

assistant coaches that nearly all of them will be replaced.

While Big 10 insiders predict a spirited effort from the Wolverines in the swan

song for the respected Carr & his staff, emotion alone wonâ€™t be enough to keep

UM in the hunt against potent defending national champ Florida. The Gators

have scored more than 500 points this season, with tough-as-nails QB Tim

Tebow (29 TDP, 22 TDR) taking home the Heisman in just his sophomore

season. A quick glance at the relative statistics in this matchup, and it would

appear that Michigan (just 26 ppg) is severely outgunned. But a deeper look

reveals that the Wolverinesâ€™ offensive production during 2007 was severely

stunted by lingering injuries to QB Chad Henne & RB Mike Hart. With that star

senior duo now healthyâ€”and the best full-time WR on the field (jr. Mario

Manningham has 20 TDC in last 2 seasons) wearing Maize & Blueâ€”Michiganâ€™s

attack should have enough balance & weapons to trade points.

As long as the weather is OK, â€œoverâ€ might be the best percentage play. The

slowish Wolverine defense does not match up well against UFâ€™s quick-hitting

spread scheme, and the young, rebuilt Gator stop unit (allowing 249 ypg

passing, only 16 takeaways) is also vulnerable. (DNP...SR: Michigan 1-0)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Illinois 11 8-3 7-4 29 21 265 160 40-24-14 118 256 28-8-17 +2 3.1 10.9

So CAL 12 10-2 6-6 31 16 186 233 47-20-27 79 180 23-12-8 -1 2.9 11.6

ROSE BOWL

ILLINOIS (9-3) vs. SOUTHERN CAL (10-2)

Tuesday, January 1 Day at Pasadena, CA (Grass Field)

SOUTHERN CAL 27 - Illinois 20â€”

Weâ€™ve seen it countless times throughout

the years. In a nutshell, itâ€™s hard to get the image of a powerful program,

especially one at its zenith, out of oneâ€™s mind. Whether Woody Hayesâ€™ late â€˜60s

Ohio State teams, Darrell Royalâ€™s Texas wishbone powerhouses from the same

era, or, in a cross-sport reference, John Woodenâ€™s first Bill Walton-led UCLA

NCAA title team in 1972, rarely can powerhouse programs sustain an

unprecedented level of domination for more than a year or two. They might

keep winning, but oddsmakers make adjustments to the pointspread, adding

another hurdle to be cleared, while opponents begin to figure out ways to slow

them down.

And so it has been with Southern Cal the past two seasons in the wake of the

breathtaking Matt Leinart/Reggie Bush teams of a few years ago. Sure, the

Trojans are still plenty good; indeed, theyâ€™ve got a legit argument that they were

playing as well as any team in the country when the regular season concluded.

But with QB John David Booty limited somewhat by a WR corps that continues

to suffer from the dropsies, theyâ€™re not nearly as dynamic as they were in the

heyday of Leinart/Bush, although the vision of those Norm Chow-influenced

and designed offensive juggernauts is hard to erase from the memory bank.

And itâ€™s the knee-jerk reaction to those past glories that likely continues to

saddle Troy with added pointspread premiums, ones they have mostly not been

able to overcome, even since the later days of Leinart and Bush. Indeed, SC

has covered just 3 of 8 laying double digits this season, 4 of its last 15 since

early â€˜06, and just 9 of its last 26 since the middle of the â€˜05 campaign. And,

now, the Trojans are being asked to carry the heaviest pointspread burden of

any bowl team this postseason.

That in itself isnâ€™t enough of a reason to support underdog Illinois, but itâ€™s a

nice bonus. Blessed with several playmakers, the Illini coped with some nasty

defenses this season, including a seemingly impenetrable Ohio State stop unit,

and usually fared well, especially in that 28-21 November 10 upset at

Columbus, when soph QB Juice Williams passed for 4 TDs and gave the

Buckeyes fits with his mobility. Although the matchup of Williams, RB Rashard

Mendenhall (1526 YR), and the 5th-ranked Illini infantry vs. the stout Trojan rush

â€œDâ€ (ranks 4th at mere 79 ypg) could prove problematic for the Champaign-

Urbana bunch, some Pac-10 observers believe Juiceâ€™s elusiveness could be

unnerving for Pete Carrollâ€™s â€œD,â€ as have other mobile QBs in the past (such as Vince Young and, this season, Oregonâ€™s Dennis Dixon).

Moreover, despite its prowess, the Troy â€œDâ€ hasnâ€™t been forcing TOs (and

providing resultant short fields for the â€œOâ€) as it did for Carroll earlier in the

decade. Yes, if SC shuts down the Illini infantry and forces Williams to the air,

Illinois could be in trouble. But weâ€™re not convinced itâ€™s going to be that easy.

(DNP...SR: Southern Cal 10-2)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Hawaii 10 10-0 4-6 43 27 77 450 56-14-37 146 224 34-16-14 -3 1.1 20.9

Georgia 11 9-2 7-4 31 21 182 198 42-26-16 125 211 27-15-11 +5 3.3 7.5

SUGAR BOWL

HAWAII (12-0) vs. GEORGIA (10-2)

Tuesday, January 1 Night at New Orleans, LA (Dome; FieldTurf)

*Georgia 40 - Hawaii 37â€”

Certain stereotypes die hard, we suppose. Such

as the argument that the gap remains wide between BCS and non-BCS

conference powers. Which, depending on the matchup, might still prove true.

But recent wins by â€œoutsidersâ€ Utah (35-7 over Pitt in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl) and

Boise State (who could forget that epic 43-42 thriller over Oklahoma in last

yearâ€™s Fiesta?) in BCS bowls, not to mention some of the upsets during the justcompleted

regular season (remember Appalachian State over Michigan?)

ought to dispel those notions...at least for the time being.

Still, just because Boise beat OU last year, and Utah whipped Pitt three

years ago (a game in which the Utes were a rather prohibitive 14-point favorite,

by the way), doesnâ€™t mean Hawaii is going to do the same against Georgia.

Indeed, there are some potentially troubling fundamental matchups for the

Warriors to overcome in New Orleans, not to mention evidence that, at least

based on its schedule, June Jonesâ€™ bunch really doesnâ€™t belong in the BCS,

especially vs. a Bulldog team tested week in and week out by rugged SEC

competition. Mainland travel has also often been a thorn for Hawaii teams and

came very close to scuttling this seasonâ€™s BCS plans, with UH experiencing

narrow escapes at modest WAC outposts such as La Tech (45-44 in OT), San

Jose State (42-35 in OT), and Nevada (28-26 on a last-second FG). And last

time we checked, trips to Ruston, San Jose, and Reno sure arenâ€™t to be

confused with excursions to Tuscaloosa, Knoxville, or Jacksonville for a date

vs. Florida, all of which UGa dealt with in â€˜07.

Thus, the challenge for the Warriors is for their defense not to be

manhandled by a maturing Bulldog OL that began to open holes for

breathtaking RS frosh RB Knowshon Moreno (1273 YR) as the season

progressed and allowed soph QB Matthew Stafford ample time to look

downfield for speedy deep-threat WRs Sean Bailey & Mohammed Massaquoi.

Although most WAC observers believe Moreno might do significant damage,

they also suggest this Hawaii â€œDâ€ is more fundamentally sound under 1st-year

d.c. Greg McMackin (who has lots of NFL background) than it was under Jerry

Glanville the past two seasons. In particular, McMackinâ€™s in-game adjustments

were invaluable, reflected in the fact Hawaii jumped from 93rd a year ago to 33rd

in total defense stats this season.But weâ€™re not sure a bigger challenge doesnâ€™t await a Georgia â€œDâ€ that

admittedly dealt with a lot of firepower in â€˜07, but never had to cope with a strike

force quite like the UH Red Gun piloted by sr. QB Colt Brennan, now healthy

after throwing 38 TDP in 2007 after tossing 58 a year ago. Brennanâ€™s prolific

squadron of wideouts will allow the Red Gun to keep firing for a full 60 minutes.

And even if the Bulldogs extend the margin, keeping the back door â€œshutâ€

against Brennan might be easier said than done.

(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

TEXAS TECH (8-4) vs. VIRGINIA (9-3)

Tuesday, January 1 Day at Jacksonville, FL (Grass Field)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Texas Tech11 7-4 6-5 39 27 58 470 56-15-40 185 205 38-17-18 -6 .5 11.5

Virginia 12 9-3 5-6 24 19 127 203 35-21-12 115 210 23-8-15 +3 3.6 13.7

Texas Tech 38 - Virginia 26â€”

Any short list of the top candidates for coach

of the year honors in 2007 should contain the name of Virginia mentor Al Groh.

Already on the hot seat after a losing campaign in 2006, Groh was under heavy

fire in Charlottesville when his Cavaliers opened this season with a moribund

23-3 loss at Wyoming. Based on that performance, few could have predicted

what would follow, as UVa cobbled together 7 straight wins and managed to

stay in the thick of the ACC title chase until the final week of the regular season.

Little has come easy for the Cavaliers this year, as 6 of their 9 victories were

decided by a total of 12 points! And the formula for success frequently wasnâ€™t

pretty, as Groh, lacking a lot of premium offensive weapons, chose to play it

close to the vest on the attack, while leaving it up to his stingy, veteran defense

to hold foes in check. So, the main question in this matchup appears to be

whether Virginia & its Kia-like offense (just 330 ypg) has any chance of keeping

pace with the spread passing scheme â€œFerrariâ€ being driven Texas Tech (42 ppg

& 537 ypg).

Itâ€™s not impossible, especially if the Red Raider OL canâ€™t hold the Cavaliersâ€™

A-A sr. DE Chris Long (14 sacks; son of former Oakland Raider star & current

talking head Howie) at bay. Still, itâ€™s much more likely that Tech will eventually

be able to pull away from this hard-trying but limited underdog. Raider jr. QB

Graham Harrell has thrown for 83 TDs & nearly 10,000 yards in just the last 2

seasons, and his rapid reads & quick release will help de-fuse the Virginia pass

rush. Also, Techâ€™s revelatory RS frosh WR Michael Crabtree (125 catches for

1861 yards & 21 TDs!) is a near-impossible matchup, too physical for many

CBs to handle but also too quick & agile to be covered by most safeties. No

surprise if the fundamentally-sound Cavaliers & versatile QB Jameel Sewell (16

TDP, 15 ints. last 2 seasons) win a few battles. They just probably donâ€™t have

enough overall firepower to survive a 60-minute war against the relentlesslyattacking

Red Raiders. (DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 6:43am
0 likes

POINTWISE ( 6-14 )

MISSOURI (11-2) vs ARKANSAS (8-4)

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

11:30 AM EST -- FOX TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Missouri ...... 47.0 ...40-25 ... 25-20 .. 165-119 ... 328-262 .. +11 . Missouri

Arkansas ..... 42.2 ...40-26 ... 19-19 .. 297-148 ... 161-211 .. + 6 . by 2.5 Pts

ANALYSIS

Just a month ago, the Tigers of Missouri were hoping to land a spot in the BCS

Championship game, as they were ranked #1 in the nation, before losing to

Oklahoma, 38-17, in the Big 12 title contest. That game, by the way, was the

only one in which Mizzou failed to reach at least 31 pts this season. As a matter

of fact, the Tigers had averaged a blazing 42 ppg in their 13 lined contests,

previous to that failure vs the Sooners. Led by brilliant Jr QB Chase Daniel, who

finished 4th in the Heisman voting (69.7%, 4,170 yds, 33 TDs, & only 10 INTs),

the Tigers have been a major story all season. Ranked a mere 32nd on our

"Polls" column at the season's onset, with only 1 publication ranking them in the

Top 25, they barely escaped Illinois in their opener, but prevailed, thanks to 5

Illini TOs. But the machine was revved, with 548, 619, 581, & 606 yds in the

next 4 contests, before being derailed by Oklahoma (who else?). They were the

only team to take the measure of then 2nd-ranked Kansas (519-391 yd edge), &

their 55-10 road demolition of a decent Colorado squad (598-196 yd edge) is the

stuff of legends. Thus, the Razorbacks of Arkansas will have their hands full, in

trying to stay with this offensive juggernaut. But the Hogs have the irrepressible

McFadden in their arsenal. He has run for an astronomical 4,485 yds & 40 TDs

the past 3 years, ranking 31st, 10th, & 4th in ball toting since '05. He blitzed

LSU for 206 yds in Arkies' season-ending upset of mighty LSU, & how about an

incredible 323 RYs (9.2 ypr), in the Hogs' 48-36 win over South Carolina? That

is simply awesome. Even with the departure of 10-yr coach Houston Nutt, the

Razorbacks fear no one. And the huge Tiger disappointment may be the edge.

PROPHECY: ARKANSAS 34 - Missouri 33 RATING: 5

TEXAS TECH (8-4) vs VIRGINIA (9-3)

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Texas Tech . 42.0 .. 42-26 .. 25-19 .... 65-177 .. 476-196.. - 6 . Tex Tech

Virginia ....... 41.1 .. 24-19 .. 16-15 .. 127-115 .. 203-210.. + 3 . by 4.4 Pts

ANALYSIS

Here we go again! The Raiders of Texas Tech compete in their 8th straight

bowl game, in the 8 years of Mike Leach's tutelage. And what an offense the

Raiders display, especially with their aerial fireworks, where they've ranked

#1, #1, #1, #1, #3, & #1 the past 6 years. Junior Graham Harrell has inherited

the mantle from earlier Tech flingers Kingsbury, Symons, Cumbie, & Hodges.

In his 2 years over center, he has thrown for 9,953 yds & 83 TDs! Not exactly

the type of opponent one aspires to face in a bowl contest. The Raiders swept

past Clemson, 55-15, in the '02 Tangerine (35-pt cover); Navy, 38-14, in the

'03 Houston (11Â½ pt cover), & California, 45-31, in the '04 Holiday (3-pt cover).

So an automatic play, right. Not quite, as they were held to a mere 10 pts in a

13-10 loss to Alabama in the '05 Cotton (6-pt ATS loss), & needed the largest

comeback in bowl history for a 44-41 OT win over Minnesota in the '06 Insight

(3Â½ pt ATS loss). By the way, Tech came from 38-7 down, halfway thru the

3rd. So, still a scintillating attack, but hardly an obvious "go-with" bowl play.

But, when the Raiders are on their game, they are dynamite. The Cavs return

to the bowl scene, after LY's expected miss, following the departure of Groh's

offensive & defensive coordinators. Virginia opened the year with a miserable

5 FD, 7 RY, 110 TY display in a 23-3 loss at Wyoming, but has fallen just twice

since, by 5 at NCSt, & by 12 at VaTech. Five wins by 3 pts or less, but also a

pair of impressive 30 & 48 pt romps over Pittsburgh & Miami. The Cavs shine

on "D", where they rank 18th (11th in scoring "D"). But containing Harrell,

Crabtree (21 TD catches), & Co, is another matter. But not a "1" call anymore.

RATING: TEXAS TECH 33 - Virginia 24 RATING: 6

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (10-2) vs ILLINOIS (9-3)

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

5:00 EST -- ABC TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

USC ............ 40.3 .. 31-16 .. 21-16 .. 186- 79 ... 233-180 .. - 1 . USC

Illinois ......... 43.5 .. 30-29 .. 19-19 .. 266-115 .. 157-241 .. + 1 . by 10.3 Pts

ANALYSIS

Just 3 years ago, Ron Zook left the Florida Gators as a failed successor to the

legendary Steve Spurrier, when they suffered through 5-loss seasons in each

of his 3 years at the Gainesville helm. Well, it didn't take the Fighting Illini of

Illinois long to snag him. And what a coup it has turned out to be, with Illinois

making it all the way back from a combined 8-38 record from '03-'06, to a spot

in the Grandaddy Bowl. Plain & simple, Zook has recruited well. Led by the

elusive Juice Williams at QB (1,498 PYs, 774 PYs), & the running of Mendenhall

(1,526 yds, 6.2 ypr, 16 TDs), the Illini have come from 47th, to 10th, to 5th in

the land in overland production. Check topping 275 RYs no less than 7 times,

with 260 RYs vs an Ohio St "D" which was 200 yds more than the 60.4 RYpg

allowed by the Buckeyes in their other 11 games. And that was at Columbus.

Can they repeat such a fete vs a healthy USC Trojan squad, which has been

the premier program in nation over the past 5 years? The logical answer may

seem to be: "Why Not?". And we certainly don't dismiss any such possibility,

with the aforementioned Illini overland accomplishments. But, as we noted,

this Troy squad is at its healthiest at the moment, proving that with a throttling

of then #7 Arizona St, in that Thanksgiving day massacre (508-259 yd edge),

followed by their rout of Ucla (26-10 FD, 231-12 RY, 437-168 TY advantages).

Booty is again a force (63%, 20 TDs), & remember, he threw for 4 TDs in LY's

annihilation of Michigan in this same bowl. In Zook's 3 years with Florida, his

Gators went 0-3 in bowl games, losing 38-30, 37-17, & 27-10 (9, 23Â½, 13 pt

ATS setback). Sure, this is another time & place, but Trojans shine in biggies.

PROPHECY: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 38 - Illinois 20 RATING: 4

FLORIDA (9-3) vs MICHIGAN (8-4)

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Florida ........ 46.6 .. 43-26 .. 22-18 .. 199-104 .. 259-258.. + 1 . Florida

Michigan .... 43.1 .. 26-20 .. 19-15 .. 162-131 .. 185-159.. + 8 . by 14.1 Pts

ANALYSIS

What a match! Just the 2nd between these collegiate gridiron behemoths, the

Wolverines of Michigan, & the defending national champion Gators of Florida.

Their 1st meeting took place in the '02 Outback Bowl, with Michigan (+1) prevailing

38-30. The Wolves have dropped 4 bowl games since, & have allowed

33 ppg in their last 9 holiday classics. Not exactly what is expected from

squad which is known for its rock-ribbed defense. A year ago, the Gators

made it look easy, in their 41-14 BCS title rout of Ohio St (31-pt cover), & the

Wolves made it look difficult in that 32-18 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl (13-pt

ATS setback). But despite those outcomes, we still feel that the Wolves were

jobbed from a return shot at the Buckeyes. No doubt, they still feel the same.

But is that added incentive enough to propel them past the awesome Gators,

who somehow lost 3 times this season? Florida opened more than few eyes

in its unheard of 59-20 rout of Tennessee, & wound up the season on a 4-gm

run, both SU & ATS, despite a "D", which allowed 33 ppg in its final 4 SEC tilts.

The Gator are led, of course, by Heisman winner, soph Tim Tebow, who set all

kinds of QB records with 29 passing, & 22 running TDs. Try 68.5% & just 6

INTs. The Wolves opened with that shocking loss to Appalachian St, followed

by a 39-7 home loss to Oregon (624-365 RY deficit), but then 8 straight wins,

before losses to Wisconsin & Ohio St: 40-25 FD & 756-411 yd deficits! Hart

has been a stalwart at RB for 4 years, but managed only 2.8 ypr in LY's Rose

Bowl. QB Henne & WR Mannigham are threats, to be sure, but Gator coach

Urban Meyer has simply shined in bowl contests. Florida, despite huge spot.

PROPHECY: FLORIDA 41 - Michigan 21 RATING: 1

GEORGIA (10-2) vs HAWAII (12-0)

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

8:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Georgia ...... 47.1 .. 32-21 .. 18-17 .. 179-120 .. 200-205.. + 4 . Georgia

Hawaii ......... 34.3 .. 46-23 .. 27-21 .... 81-140 .. 442-210.. - 1 . by 5.9 Pts

ANALYSIS

This contest features yet another 2-loss team which feels that it has been

jobbed out of the BCS Title Game (the Georgia Bulldogs), facing major college

football's lone unbeaten team, which is thrilled to be here (the Hawaii Rainbow

Warriors). The 'Dawgs are, of course, one of the true elite squads in the land,

with a combined 63-15 record over the past 6 years, and making it to 34 bowl

games since the '66 season, with this marking their 11th straight season with

a bowl reward. And try 22 New Year's Day games. This year edition hardly

began with any flourish, as Georgia stood at just 4-2, after a thrashing at the

hands of the Vols of Tennessee, with 1 of those 4 wins by just 3 pts, in an OT

game vs eventual 6-6 Alabama. QB Stafford is the trigger, finishing as the 5th

rated passer in the SEC with 2,348 yds & 18 TDs, but Moreno is the engine

(2nd to McFadden in SEC RYs) in the 'Dawgs' 6-0 windup. Check 188 yds in

the Bulldogs' shockingly easy win over Florida (19Â½ pt cover). Yep, a 6-game

run to wind it up, & the 4th slot in the national rankings, but no BCS cigar. For

the 10th-ranked & perfect Rainbows, this one represents the apex. June Jones'

overhead barrages have been near unstoppable for the last 7 years, but this

edition is assuredly his best. The 'Bows have been challenged, to be sure, but

at season's end, they again led the nation in scoring at 46.2 ppg, down a bit

from LY's 46.8 ppg. They are led, of course, by the brilliant Colt Brennan, who

has thrown 131 TDs the past 3 years, to a bevy of top-notch receivers, such as

Grice-Mullen, Bess, & Rivers. This squad defines the word "explosive". Can

Hawaii be this year's Boise St? Absolutely. Fireworks galore & another upset.

PROPHECY: HAWAII 38 - Georgia 36 RATING: 2

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 6:43am
0 likes

THE SPORTS MEMO ( 15-6 !!!!!!!!!!)

Wisconsin +2

Missouri -3

Florida -10

Tech Tech-5.5

Illinois +13.5

Georgia-8

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 6:43am
0 likes

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS: ( 16-4 !!!!!!!!!!)

These two met once in the â€˜81 Garden State Bowl which UT won 28-21. The Vols make a return

visit to Tampa where they are 1-1 SU & ATS in their history including LYâ€™s 20-10 upset loss to Penn

St (-4â€™). The Badgers make their 4th appearance in this game (1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS). The last time they

visited Tampa in â€˜04 they hung tough with favored Georgia but lost 24-21 (+8). The bowl committee

snapped up UW nearly a week before all the other bowl invites were handed out because of their fansâ€™

fine reputation as travellers. Fulmer is 3-2 SU & ATS vs the Big Ten in bowls (7-7 SU & ATS overall).

UW has pulled 2 straight upsets of ranked SEC teams in NYâ€™s Day bowls to bring their record up to

2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS vs the league in bowls (LYâ€™s win under Bielema). UT has played a tougher schedule

(#20-46) taking on 10 bowl eligible teams (6-4 SU & 5-3-2 ATS) to UWâ€™s 7 (4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS), but UT

was outgained 429-385 while UW outgained bowl foes 400-370. Both struggled on the road TY with

UT 2-4 SU & 2-3-1 ATS while UW was 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS! UW has 5 senior starters & UT has 7. UW is

1-3 ATS as a dog TY & UT is 6-1 ATS as an AF S/â€™05. UW finished their season Nov 17 while UT last

played on Dec 1 but the extra rest has not affected this Big Ten team the L/2Y.

UW came into â€˜07 with expectations to not only win their 1st Big Ten Title S/â€˜99 but also to compete for

their first-ever Natâ€™l Title as they opened the yr at #7. QB Donovan was 1 of just 2 new starters on off but

injâ€™s hampered the unit all ssn. TE Crooks, WRâ€™s Swan and Hubbard, RB Hill and RG Kemp were among

the starters who missed multiple gms. The Badgers, who never quite looked like the tm that finished 12-1

in Bielemaâ€™s debut season, won their 1st 5 gms to climb into the Top 5 before losing to an unranked yet

favored Illinois tm. Donovanâ€™s efficiency was hampered by the banged up rec corps which by the Penn

St gm saw the Badgers starting 2 true Fr WRâ€™s. Eventually Hubbard returned for the L/5 gms to provide

the offense with a big play threat. The off MVP was John Mackey finalist Beckum who led the NCAAâ€™s

TE in rec ypg and was #2 in rec per game. RB depth was a season long problem as #2 TB Smith was

suspended for all road games (is elig for bowl). When Hill was injured vs Indiana the staff was forced

to turn to true frosh Brown and he finished with 421 yds (5.5) in the L/3. UW returned 5 of their front 7

but were disappointing as they surrendered 73 more pass ypg & 13 extra TD passes than in â€˜06. The S

play was erratic as well as CB Ikegwuonuâ€™s play slipped (1st tm All-Big Ten in â€˜06). The Badgers will be

without DT Chapman (knee), CB Langford (knee) and possibly Hill (leg) for the bowl.

UTâ€™s roller coaster ssn started with a 1-2 record with blowout losses to Cal & rival UF and fans were

calling for Fulmerâ€™s head. A blowout win over rival UGA quieted the fans until 2 wks later when the Vols

were blown out by rival Bama. Prior to the Ark gm, 191 former UT players including Peyton Manning took

out a full page ad supporting Fulmer, and UT finished the reg ssn with 5 str wins clinching a spot in the

SEC Champ gm. UTâ€™s offense (#32) is led by Sr QB Ainge who lost his top 3 recâ€™s from â€˜06, but still topped

LYâ€™s ydg & threw 10 more TD. Taylor became Aingeâ€™s go-to guy finishing #3 in the SEC in rec pg despite

being less than 100% in several gms. RB Foster turned in a career best ssn with five 100+ rush gms. UTâ€™s

OL has been outstanding allowing just 4 sks in 491 pass atts (0.8%) which is #1 in the NCAA. DC Chavis

has built outstanding defenses here, but TY was an exception. UT finished #46 in overall D, but #76 in our

pass eff D rankings with 3 CBâ€™s lost to inj & dismissal since April â€˜07. Undersized FS Hefney (2nd Tm SEC

â€˜06) had a disappointing beginning of the yr, but true frosh SS Berry emerged as a star setting a UT record

with 222 int ret yds TY. Overall UT was outscored 29.7-28.6 and outgained 415-372 in SEC play TY but

their bend-but-donâ€™t-break defense allowed just 20 ppg in regulation the L/6 (32 ppg 1st 7).

UT has had an all-or-nothing approach to the bowls the last few yrs with huge blowout wins over

TX A&M in â€˜04 & Michigan in â€˜01, but blowout losses to Clem & Maryland in B2B Peach Bowls in â€˜02

& â€˜03. The Vols finished with a loss in the SEC Championship but had a successful 9 win season with

a New Yearâ€™s Day bowl bid. Highly respected UT OC Cutcliffe was named HC of Duke and may not

coach the Vols in the bowl. Wisc has covered the L/3 vs the SEC on NYâ€™s Day but Tenn did finish on a

7-3-2 ATS run while facing 10 bowl eligible teams. The Vols running game & defense improved as the

season progressed making them the more balanced team and the choice here.

FORECAST: TENNESSEE 35 WISCONSIN 24 RATING: 3★

This will be the 5th meeting overall (2-2) & a rematch of the â€˜03 Independence Bowl which Arkansas won

27-14 (-2â€™) despite being outgained 407-385. Mizzou is 10-14 in bowls & lost 40-27 vs Texas in their only Cotton

Bowl appearance. This will also be the Tigersâ€™ 1st NYD bowl S/â€™70 (lost 10-3 vs PSU). Ark is 11-21-3 in bowls,

including 3-6-1 (1-2 ATS) in the Cotton Bowl. The Razorbacks are on a 3-12 SU & 4-11 ATS run in bowls S/â€™79

are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS on NYD. Pinkel is 2-2 in bowls (2-1 SU & ATS as HC w/MO). Ark interim HC Herring will

be making his HC debut. Both schools sold their allotment of tickets & with the strong recruiting ties for Ark

in TX along with the home of the Big XII for MO the crowd will be a full house at 50/50. Mizzou has faced 6

bowl caliber tms going 5-2 SU & ATS, outscoring oppâ€™s on avg 37-27 & outgaining them on avg 465-364. Ark

was 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS vs their 7 bowl caliber opps, outgaining them on avg 432-408, but were outscored on

avg 34-31. Both tms played Ole Miss, winning & covering, but Ark only allâ€™d 294 yds & Mizzou gave up 534.

The Tigers have 7 seniors starters with 18 upperclassmen (82%) in starting roles while the Razorbacks start

10 seniors & 17 upperclassmen (77%). Mizzou was 4-0 ATS as an AF TY & Ark is 7-2 ATS as an AD. Ark will

have 8 more days of preparation as MO last played in the Big XII Title gm on Dec 1st.

Missouri was just one gm away from a Natâ€™l Title shot, but lost to OU for the 2nd time in one yr (only tm that

has beat them all ssn) & was bypassed by the BCS accepting the Cotton Bowl invite ungraciously. Missouri &

Ohio St are the only 2 schools in IA whose losses came vs BCS tms, yet the Tigers are not in the BCS? If you

take away the gms vs OU, Mizzou has dropped 36+ on every opp. Heisman finalist QB Daniel had a stellar Jr

season as he threw for at least 300 yds in 8 gms (62%) & is 4th in the NCAA in ttl off (343 ypg). Jeremy Maclin

broke an NCAA record for the most ttl yds in one ssn by a Fr with 2,713. He is 35% of the Tigersâ€™ total yardage.

John Mackey runner-up Rucker along with Coffman are the best set of TEâ€™s in the nation. The OL avg 6â€™4â€ 310

with 2 senior starters. The DL avg 6â€™3â€ 280 with 1 senior starter. The DL is the strength of the D allâ€™g just 101

ypg (3.3) over the L/9 gms. They are led by Sr DT Lorenzo Williams & Jr DE Sulak. The secondary suffered

a big blow with the loss of Sr Pig Brown in late Oct, but does have 5 of 8 upperclassmen in the 2 deep & is

ranked #35 in the pass eff D allowing 262 ypg (62%) with an 18-16 ratio. K Wolfert is a ex-diver on the Mizzou

swim tm & has had an outstanding ssn. Super KR/PR Maclin is a threat to take it all the way on every touch.

Missouri is ranked #2 on offense, #25 on defense & #71 on STâ€™s (#115 in net punting, 30.9).

HC Nuttâ€™s job was on the line well before the ssn started with all of the offssn drama surrounding the

transfer of former QB Mustain and the other Springdale players. When the Hogs started the ssn 0-3 in SEC

play, planes flew over Arkâ€™s stadium during gms calling for his ouster. The tm led by junior RBâ€™s McFadden &

Jones stuck together and fully supported their HC and won 5 of their L/6 gms including a huge upset of #1

LSU in 3OT to earn a NYâ€™s Day bowl bid. Arkâ€™s offense is #12 in our rankings. Two-time Heisman runner-up

McFadden wasnâ€™t 100% for much of the ssn & was held to 43 yds in their loss to Aub, but tied an NCAA

record with 321 rush yds vs SCar and took nearly half of the snaps from center vs LSU (206 rush, 3 TD).

Jones was injâ€™d vs Tenn & missed all but 1 snap vs Miss St, but still reached 1,000. QB Dick was solid TY,

but not spectacular with a much improved TD/int ratio (LY 9-6). Dick was hampered by a banged up WR

corps with top WR Monk injâ€™d in the pressn and not returning until the L/6 gms. Starting WR Johnson missed

2 gms and both Monk & Johnson didnâ€™t get much practice time all yr with the coaches holding them out

to keep them healthy for the gms. The OL is led by Rimington Trophy winner Jonathan Luigs and allâ€™d just

10 sks (3.6%) & the tm finished #3 in the NCAA in rush (297 ypg, 6.2). Arkâ€™s D is #49 in our rankings with

the DL solidifying midssn after Harrison retâ€™d from susp and settled in at his more natural DT position. Ark

allowed 147 rush ypg (3. and finished #5 in our pass D rankings allâ€™g 211 ypg (46%) with a 21-19 ratio

vs a tough opposing slate of QBâ€™s. CB Grant led the SEC in PD after moving from FS midssn.

This is a rematch of our 2003 Bowl Game of the Year as Ark (-2â€™) won 27-14. Missouri was the team

left out of the BCS mix and certainly will use this venue to prove they belonged. Arkansas knocked off the

#1 team in the country in their last game and then struggled to find a HC before luring Petrino from the

Falcons. Missouri has edges on both offense and defense and outgained bowl opponents by 101 ypg while

going 5-2 ATS. Missouriâ€™s run defense is stout enough to slow the powerful Razorback rush attack and QB

Daniel knows that Ark allâ€™d the pass attacks of Alabama and Kentucky to both put up 40+ points. FORECAST: Missouri 41 Arkansas 30 RATING: 4★

This is a rematch of the â€˜02 Outback Bowl which Mich won 38-30 (-1), the only prior meeting between

these 2 powers. The Capital One was hoping to get 9-3 Illinois with HC Zook facing his former team, but

instead will host Lloyd Carrâ€™s retirement party. Michigan leads the NCAA with their 33rd straight post season

gm while Florida has played 17 in a row (3rd longest). This is the Gatorsâ€™ 5th trip to the Capital One Bowl

(2-2 SU) with their last appearance in â€˜99 (37-34 loss to Mich St, -2â€™) while this is UMâ€™s 4th appearance

(2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS). Though Michigan should bring some fans, UF should have a large crowd edge. UF HC

Meyer will be trying to win his 5th straight bowl (4-0 ATS) after LYâ€™s trouncing of #1 ranked Ohio St in the

BCS Title gm as a 7â€™ pt dog. Meyer is 2-0 ATS as a bowl favorite (both at Utah). Carr is 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS

in bowls (2-3 as bowl dog) & LY suffered a blowout loss to USC in the Rose Bowl (+1). UM has 8 senior

starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles while UF has just 6 senior starters and 11 upperclassmen.

UF is 3-2 SU & ATS on the road TY, but just 2-9 ATS as an AF under Meyer. UM has faced 8 bowl elig

tms (5-3 SU & 3-4-1 ATS) with an avg score of 22-22 while being outgained by them 371-326. UF faced

9 bowl elig tms and outscored those tms 43-27 and outgained foes 447-370. Our rankings show UM with

the tougher schedule overall (#18-35). UM last played on Nov 17 while UF played on Nov 24.

#5 Michigan began â€˜07 with National Championship expectations as they returned 4 of the NCAAâ€™s best players

in QB Henne, RB Hart, WR Manningham and OT Long. Their shocking loss in the opener to IAA champ App St not

only dashed those lofty dreams but it also opened the floodgates for what proved to be 1 of the NCAAâ€™s wackiest

ssns ever. The opener was also the last time that all of their stars played a full gm as Henne missed parts of 8

gms (knee & shoulder injâ€™s) while RB Hart missed 3 due to a nagging ankle inj. True frosh Mallett started 4 gms

(3-1 SU & ATS) but struggled with control (5 int & 10 fmblâ€™s w/5 lost). Despite the inj, Hart rushed for 100+ in 8

of his 9 gms played and will finally be 100% here. Biletnikoff finalist Manningham was in Carrâ€™s doghouse due to

inconsistent play. Lombardi finalist Long was the steadiest performer on an OL which started 6 different combos.

Overall UM finished with our #47 off. After getting blown out by Oregon, UM rallied to win their next 8 gms thanks

to their D which allâ€™d just 15 ppg and 275 ypg during the streak. The Wolves had 1 of the nationâ€™s top Dâ€™s in â€˜06 but

had to replace 7 starters incl 5 NFL DCâ€™s. They struggled once again vs spread offenses which featured mobile

QBâ€™s allowing 30 ppg and 421 ypg to App St, Oregon & IL. Crable led NCAA LBâ€™s in tfl and was the only true star

of the defense that ranked #7 overall STâ€™s were rarely special as K Gingell had 2 FGâ€™s blkâ€™d vs App St which cost

them the gm. P Mesko was a standout vs OSU with 12 punts for a 45.9 avg in foul weather (40.1 net).

UFâ€™s 2006 Natâ€™l Champ high started to wear off late Sept when the Gators were almost upset by Ole

Miss then the next week Aub upset the Gators in the Swamp as a 17â€™ pt dog ending their 18 gm home win

streak. The following wk, UF outplayed LSU, but lost in Baton Rouge for Meyerâ€™s 1st B2B losses at Florida

(just 2nd time in career). QB Tebow suffered a shldr inj vs UK, and was unable to run vs rival UGA which

led to the Gatorsâ€™ final loss of the ssn knocking them out of the SEC Title hunt. Heisman-Winner Tebow set

an NCAA record becoming the only player in history with 20+ pass & rush TDâ€™s in a ssn. Tebow is their #1

offensive weapon (72%) as the tmâ€™s top rusher and finished #2 in the NCAA in pass efficiency. Tebow suffered

a brkn hand vs FSU but is expected to be 100% here. Tebowâ€™s top receiver Harvin missed 2 gms and

was forced to fill in at RB finishing as the #2 rusher. Tebowâ€™s mobility helped the OL allow just 12 sks and

the tm rushed for 198 ypg (5.2). The Gators finished with our #1 offense. UFâ€™s defense retâ€™d just 2 starters

from â€˜06 and finished #42 overall in our rankings. The soft spot is the secondary which features 2 true frosh

starters (CB Haden & FS Wright) and finished #68 in our pass D rankings allowing 249 ypg (59%) with a

16-9 ratio. The rush D finished #10 in the NCAA allowing 99 ypg (3.0). UF has a large edge on STâ€™s (#18-98)

with returnman James & a net punt avg of 38.6 (#9 in NCAA).

Florida won the â€˜06 BCS Champ with a coach who is 4-0 in bowls facing a Michigan squad that lost

its L/2 with a coach that has lost 4 straight bowls. Now letâ€™s look a little deeper. The checklist shows that

Michigan matches up fairly evenly and they were a Top 10 team to start the year but were riddled with injuries

to their offense skill players. They will now finally be healthy and can keep this game close. Intangibles

favor the Wolves playing there final game for HC Carr against the Gators who expected, at worst, a BCS

Sugar Bowl trip as SEC Champs. This game is eerily similar to the â€˜05 Capital One Bowl where a seemingly

undermatched Wisconsin squad beat Arkansas 24-10 as 10 point dog in Barry Alvarezâ€™s final game. FORECAST: MICHIGAN (+) 31 Florida 35 RATING: 1★

1st matchup. This is UVAâ€™s 5th bowl appearance under Groh, and the Cavs are 7-9 SU & 7-8-1 ATS overall

in bowls. TT is 9-20-1 SU in bowls & is playing in their 8th straight post ssn gm, all under HC Leach (4-3

SU & 3-4 ATS). This will be UVAâ€™s 2nd appearance in the Gator Bowl (lost to OK 48-14, -2 in â€˜91). TT hasnâ€™t

won a NYD bowl S/â€˜54 (Gator Bowl) going 0-3 SU & 0-2 ATS since. The Raiders are 2-1 in the Gator Bowl

but this is their 1st appearance S/â€™73. The Cavs have not played a NYD bowl since they lost to BC 31-13 in

the â€˜94 Carquest Bowl. UVA has faced 5 bowl caliber tms going 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS while outgaining those

oppâ€™s 335-317 but were outscored 21-20 with 3 one pt wins. TT has faced 6 bowl caliber tms going 2-4 SU

& ATS, avg 510 ypg, outgaining foes by 59 ypg but being outscored 36-32. The Cavs have 7 seniors and 15

upperclassmen (68%) in the starting lineup while TT has just 4 senior starters & 10 upperclassmen (45%).

UVA plays their home games on grass & was 6-4 ATS on it & has the surface edge over TT who plays on

turf (3-7 ATS on grass). The Cavs are just 9-15 ATS as an AD under Groh but went 3-0 TY. TT was 3-1 ATS

as an AF TY. TT should have the fan edge here as they have sold their allotment of 12,000+ while UVA still

had 5,000 tickets remaining and their fans generally donâ€™t travel to far away bowls.

TT is known for its potent offense that scores at will as HC Leach has that kind of persona. The

Red Raiders did return to form this year (42 ppg) from an off that avg â€˜d 10 pgg less in â€˜06 (prior to the

bowl). TT dropped 34+ on 10 opponents TY (83%). TT was 6-1 & ranked #22, but finished 2-3. They did

beat OU (w/o QB Bradford) to end the regular ssn & are the only Big XII tm to be bowl elig every year

since the league was formed in â€˜96. For the 1st time in 6 yrs, TT had the same QB start for 2 straight

yrs. Harrell is #1 in the NCAA in pass yds, pass ypg & pass TDâ€™s. TT however is ranked #119 in rush off

avg 61 ypg. Biletnikoff Winner WR Crabtree (1st FR named AFCA AA since Herschel Walker in â€˜80) set

a Fr record with 21 TD (shattered old record of 14). He leads the nation in rec & rec yds & has eleven

100+ yd gms (two 200+). Sr WR Amendola was overshadowed, but his veteran leadership is invaluable.

The OL avg 6â€™6â€™â€™ 331 with NO seniors up front, making them inexperienced, but also the tallest &

largest OL in the country. The DL avg 6â€™4â€™â€™ 262 and again with NO seniors starters. DC Setencich was

let go after Tech allâ€™d 49 pts & 610 yds to OkSt. McNeill has filled as interim DC & since then Tech has

allowed 25 ppg & 348 ypg. The Red Raiders rank #25 in our pass eff def allowing 196 ypg (55%) with

a 19-10 ratio. Texas Tech is ranked #3 on offense, #47 on defense & #15 on sp tms.

UVA started the ssn with an embarrassing 23-3 loss to WY with many wanting Groh fired. However, the

Cavs turned it around and won 7 straight finishing the season 9-3 with Groh being named the ACC COY &

getting his contract extended. UVA played many close games that could have gone either way. A win here

would give UVA 10 wins in a ssn for the first time S/â€™89. The Cavs lost their top TB Peerman midseason

w/a leg inj (#1 ACC prior to inj) and shuffled around several players until Simpson finally emerged as the

#1. The OL avg 6â€™5â€ 301 with 2 Sr starters, paving the way for 126 ypg rush (3.4) but did allow 30 sks.

The key to this game for UVA is trying to contain the nationâ€™s #1 passing offense with their #22 ranked D.

Hendricks Winner & ACC Def POY DE Long is #3 in the nation in sks and has that first-step quickness to

apply pressure on TT. Fitzgerald is capable of creating havoc on the other side. The DL avg 6â€™4â€ 278 is only

allâ€™g 113 ypg rush (3.0) and ranks #6 in the nation with 40 sks. LB Sintim is #2 on the team in sacks and

also has the capability of applying a lot of pressure. UVAâ€™s secondary has struggled, allâ€™g 210 ypg (57%)

with a 15-11 ratio ranking #72 in our pass eff D. They now have to try to defend a team that produced two

1,000+ yd receivers. The Cavs only have our #61 ST ranking but they did have one of the top punters in

the country in Weigand with a 45.5 avg but the tm had 3 Pâ€™s blkâ€™d bringing the net to 35.2.

Ironically both of these tms had huge comebacks to beat Minnesota in their previous bowl win

(sorry Glenn Mason). TTâ€™s spread offense is led by Graham Harrell, who passed for 5,000+ yds and

freshman WR Crabtree (1861 yds & 21 TD) and theyâ€™ll receive most of the pregame hype. Virginiaâ€™s

superstar is DL Long (Howieâ€™s son) who is a one man wrecking crew and this grass field will help slow

the TT offense. The Cavs will quietly prep for this game as the underdog and will keep this one close

against the favored Red Raiders.

FORECAST: VIRGINIA (+) 28 Texas Tech 30 RATING: 2★

The Trojans have won 10 of 12 meetings outscoring the Illini by a 26-10 avg with the last game

in â€˜96. Illinois makes their 1st bowl appearance S/â€™01 (Sugar Bowl) and 1st Rose Bowl S/â€™83. Since

â€˜82 the Illini are 3-8 SU in bowls and Zook went 0-2 SU & ATS on NYâ€™s day as Floridaâ€™s HC. USC is

making an unprecedented 6th straight BCS Bowl which also happens to be their 32nd Rose Bowl

bid overall. The Trojans are 66-6 their L/72 gms under Carroll with their losses by a combined 20 pts

and are 4-2 SU & ATS in the post season. USC faced 5 bowl caliber teams winning 4 of 5 SU (3-2

ATS) outscoring them by a 27-15 avg. Illinois has faced 9 bowl eligible tms going 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS

outscoring them 27-22 and outgaining them 390-388. USC is playing in their hometown while Illini fans

are expected to flock to Pasadena. USC went 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road TY and IL went 4-2 SU

& ATS including their upset of #1 Ohio St. The Trojans have 10 senior starters and 19 upperclassmen

while bowl hungry Illinois has 8 seniors among 15 upperclassmen. Since the 2nd gm of â€˜03 USC has

been favored in every reg ssn game except vs Oregon TY. The Trojans are 4-11 ATS as DD favorites.

IL is 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. IL wrapped up its season Nov 17th while USC finished on Dec 1st.

Ron Zook came to Illinois with the reputation of being a big time recruiter (21 of 22 starters on Floridaâ€™s

National Championship tm) but he entered the 2007 season with a 27-33 career record. Zookâ€™s young

squad pulled the NCAAâ€™s largest turnaround in his 3rd year in Champaign going from a 2-10 record to

9-3. The Illini run a no-huddle spread power option which suits the skills of QB Williams. Williams is very

mobile but an unpolished passer, in fact if you take out his 4 TD pass performance vs OSU he had a 9-10

ratio TY. Early in the year Zook frequently substituted Williams with backup McGee who is considered a

better passer but the coach stuck with Juice and was rewarded. Big Ten Offensive POY RB Mendenhall

led the conf in rushing. Frosh WR Benn, who was recruited by USC, led the Illini in receiving despite rarely

being 100% TY due to a shoulder injury. The OL was 1 of the NCAAâ€™s best paving the way for 5.7 ypc with

just 11 sks allâ€™d (3.8%). The offense is #19 in our ranking while the D is #20. The Illini defense is led by AA

LB Leman who was #3 in the conf in tkls. The DL avgâ€™s 6â€™5â€ 277 and had 38 sks with 3.3 rush ypc allâ€™d.

Illinois ranks #42 in pass eff D led by cover CB Davis who was the only soph to be a Thorpe semifinalist.

The STâ€™s were a much improved unit (#62) as K Reda hit 3 FGâ€™s from 50+ and the team blkâ€™d 2 kicks.

Trojans QB Booty looked to be the Heisman frontrunner early but a broken finger vs Stanford (4

int in the 2H) caused him to miss the next 3. In Bootyâ€™s absence, bkup Sanchez took over leading

USC to victories in 2 of 3 starts. Booty returned & despite accuracy issues early, put together an

impressive performance vs ASU (375 yds, 67%, 4-0 ratio) boosting his confidence to end the ssn.

RB Washington led in rushing for the 2nd straight ssn while rFr Johnson & true frosh McKnight were

forced to carry the remainder of the load after the transfer of Moody (#2 rush LY) and a ssn ending inj

to Gable (#3 rush LY). The WR position was the biggest ? TY after the departure of Jarrett & Smith to

the NFL. The new receiving trio of Turner, Ausberry & Hazelton struggled early in the ssn as TE Davis

led the tm in rec, rec yds & rec TDâ€™s winning the John Mackey Award. The OL is loaded with talent &

size (6â€™5â€ 303) led by AA LT Baker who helped pave the way for 185 ypg rush (4.7) while allâ€™g 15 sks

(3.6%). USC is ranked #10 on offense. The DL avg 6â€™5â€ 286 allâ€™g just 79 ypg rush (2.4) led by DT Ellis

and DE Jackson. The LB corps is one of the best in the nation with Maualuga, Rivers & Cushing. The

secondary allâ€™d 180 ypg (54%) with an 8-10 ratio ranking #4 in pass eff D. The def finished #2 overall.

USC struggled on STâ€™s (#100) as they allowed 3 blkâ€™d Pâ€™s and a KR TD.

It is business as usual as USC is playing in their 3rd straight Rose Bowl and 6th straight BCS appearance.

Illinois is thrilled to be selected by the BCS and their season is a success just by landing in this

game. The Trojans have a chip on their shoulder and are out to prove that they are a national power. The

defense has at least 9 players who will be playing on Sundays and already faced a pair of mobile QBâ€™s

in Dixon and Locker. They held Oreg (w/ Dixon) 167 yds under their season avg and held Washington

204 yards under theirs. USCâ€™s HC Carroll against UI HC Zook is one of the biggest bowl mismatches.

FORECAST: USC 34 ILLINOIS 13 RATING: 2★

Hawaii ended the reg ssn with a perfect 12-0 record en route to becoming the only undefeated team in

IA. The Warriors own the nationâ€™s longest winning streak at 13 gms & have won 22 of their L/23 contests.

The Warriors are playing in their first BCS bowl (the WACâ€™s 2nd in as many yrs) & are making their 5th

bowl appearance in 6 years. Three-time WAC COY (â€˜99, â€˜06, â€˜07) Jones has guided the Warriors to 5 of

their 7 bowls & is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. UGA is playing in their 11th straight bowl & 7th consec bowl under

Richt (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) and LY upset #14 VT in a 31-24 come-from-behind win in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

This is UGAâ€™s 43rd bowl appearance (#6 in NCAA, 23-16-3 record) and their 9th Sugar Bowl (3-5 SU). In

their last Sugar Bowl trip, UGA was upset by WV (-6) 38-35, a gm in which the Dawgs trailed 28-0 early

2Q. UH is 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY outscoring them 35-28 and outgaining them 517-357 while

completing 73% of its pass atts. UGA has faced a much tougher schedule (#49-118) with a 7-2 SU & 6-3

ATS record vs 9 bowl elig tms. UGA outscored those tms 30-22 & outgained them 372-333. The Warriors

are 1-3 SU (3-1 ATS) vs SEC squads S/â€˜87. UGA sold over 22,000 tickets to this gm as of presstime and

will have a huge crowd edge with possibly less than 1,500 fans making the long trip from Hawaii. UGA is

4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS on the road TY while UH is 5-0 SU & 2-3 ATS. UH has 12 senior & 21 of their starters

are upperclassmen while UGA has just 7 seniors & 13 upperclassmen in starting roles.

UH QB Brennan, the WAC Off POY, directs our #8 rated off & is the NCAAâ€™s career leader with 131

TD passes. Brennan has passed for over 4,000 yds in each of his 3 ssns at UH. TY he threw for over

400 yds & 4 or more TDâ€™s in 6 of UHâ€™s 12 gms with ssn-highs of 548 yds & 6 TD. In the Warriorsâ€™ final

2 gms vs their biggest opps, Brennan passed for 937 yds (80%) & 10 TD, including a school-record 20

consec comp vs Wash. UHâ€™s WR trio of Bess, Grice-Mullen & Rivers have each surpassed the 1,000

yd plateau TY (ties NCAA record). UH also had at least 2 WRâ€™s with 100+ yds in a gm 8 times TY

including 4 gms with three 100+ yd receivers. UHâ€™s OL avg 6â€™2â€ 293 & all 5 have started every game

TY. The unit is primarily a pass-protection front in the Run-&-Shoot (606 pass plays vs 261 rush) &

allâ€™d 26 sks while aiding a running game that avg 3.6 ypc. UH is known for its offense but it features

our #61 rated D which has been flying under the radar. UH is #9 in the NCAA in sks (38), #11 in int

(19) & #5 in 3rd down conv (28.7%). UHâ€™s DL avg 6â€™3â€, 281 & DE Veikune leads the WAC in sks. The

LB duo of Elimimian & Leonard both eclipsed the century mark in tkls while the veteran secondary

allâ€™d 217 ypg (57%) with a 15-19 ratio earning our #23 overall pass eff D ranking. UH is #55 in our ST

ratings & PK Kelly hit two HUGE kicks to keep UHâ€™s undefeated season & BCS hopes alive.

UGAâ€™s young offense (#41) is led by soph QB Stafford who made great strides after a rocky true

frosh ssn improving his TD/int ratio from 7-13 in â€˜06. However, the teamâ€™s 6 gm win streak to end the

ssn can partially be attributed to RB Moreno who started the L/6 after Brown & Lumpkin were injâ€™d.

Brown retâ€™d as a bkup in the L/3 & led the tm vs GT with 139. Lumpkin (â€˜06â€™s top rusher with 798, 4.9)

may be available for the bowl. The WRâ€™s were steady but unspectacular for most of the ssn with less

dropped passes than â€˜06. The OL starts 3 true frosh and allâ€™d just 15 sks (4.4%) while opening holes

for 179 rush ypg (4.6). UGAâ€™s #15 D was solid vs the run allâ€™g 120 ypg (3.4) & had a solid pass rush

with DT Atkins collecting 29 qbh & DE Howard having 33. The safeties were a little banged up TY, so

CB Allen finished as the #2 tklr and UGA finished #41 in our pass D rankings allâ€™g 205 ypg (59%) with

an 11-11 ratio. They will need their top 6 DBâ€™s (at least) to be healthy for the bowl, but UGA did hold

the best QB they faced, Tebow (though stationary due to shldr inj) to 236 pass yds and 1 TD pass.

Though UGA is happy to make a BCS bowl, this is potentially a lose-lose situation for the Dawgs

because if they beat UH, they â€œonlyâ€ beat a WAC tm, and if they lose, it will be a replay of LYâ€™s Fiesta

Bowl. Hawaii is thrilled with a BCS appearance and does have hope from fellow WAC member Boiseâ€™s

Fiesta Bowl win. Georgia however will use that same upset from LY to keep themselves focused and

HC Richt has made a point that their loss to WV in 2005 catapulted the Mountaineers program. A

focused Georgia team will show you the talent difference between the SEC and the WAC,

FORECAST: GEORGIA 43 Hawaii 27 RATING: 2★

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 6:44am
0 likes

WINNING POINTS ( 9-10-1)

OUTBACK BOWL

(January 1 at Tampa)

TENNESSEE over WISCONSIN by 5

When the world saw Florida humiliate Ohio State in the National Championship

game LY a case can be made that the long Buckeye layoff was a major factor â€“ the

Gators extended their season a full two weeks longer, and as such were much closer

to their prime playing rhythm. There was another game LY that brought a similar

setting to the table, when Wisconsin gutted out an outright win over Arkansas

(which lost to Florida in the SEC title game) on January 1st. Did that game tell us

that the layoff, which is matched in this game, is not all that important? Not really.

Despite winning on the scoreboard, the Badgers were badly pushed around at

the line of scrimmage â€“ total offense was 368-201, and a team that prides itself on

physical play up front was actually held to minus yards rushing. The truth is that

in two games in which SEC teams played two weeks longer into the season than

Big 10 opponents, the SEC side dominated each game. That becomes the starting

point for this one but the rest is precarious, largely because of Tennesseeâ€™s inconsistency

through this season (three losses by 14 points or more, and had to survive

missed field goals down the stretch by both Vanderbilt and Kentucky that would

have turned those results around), and recent bowl performances (three losses in

double figures in the last four trips). But Wisconsin may bring even less to the

table, losing at Illinois and Penn State in the only road games against bowl teams,

and not facing anyone near the likes of Vol QB Erik Ainge this season. TENNESSEE

31-26.

COTTON BOWL

(January 1 at Dallas)

ARKANSAS over MISSOURI by 1

Since the BCS first began its money-making enterprise, few teams have been treated

as poorly as Missouri. The Tigers only lost to one team all season, that being

Orange Bowl entrant Oklahoma, and beat BCS-bound Illinois and Kansas on neutral

fields. Why did the latter two get better invitations? Ask the money guys. What

it should do is put an extra motivation into the preparation for Gary Pinkel and his

team for this game, but that is not always a good thing â€“ for a program making its

first New Yearâ€™s day appearance under their coach (it took seven seasons), maintaining

the proper composure to use that energy for something positive can be a

question. But that is only one of many questions in this one. While we believe that

Arkansas can get Darren McFadden untracked vs. an only average Tiger defense, in

what will likely be his last game as a Razorback, there are some defensive questions.

It has nothing to do with the post-Houston Nutt transition, as defensive coordinator

Reggie Herring takes over as head man for this game, but rather â€“ is this pass

defense any good? Yes, we see what the numbers say; they rate 5th in the nation in

the key pass efficiency defense numbers, usually the best measure. But take a look

at the opposition. Even coming from the tough SEC they faced one of the weakest

clusters of passing offenses that could be imagined at that level. We will still give

them enough benefit of the doubt to call for the mini upset in this one, but do not

have the full confidence that the way they match up vs. Chase Daniel really shows

in their numbers. ARKANSAS 31-30.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

(January 1 at Orlando)

FLORIDA over MICHIGAN by 8

Yes, there would be a sentimental part of us that might like to see a nice guy like

Lloyd Carr get a win in his final game as Michigan coach. But we are also realists

enough to know that games can only be won on emotion if there are not major tactical

issues. There certainly are here. While the Wolverines will finally have Mike

Hart and Chad Henne both healthy in the backfield for the first time since

September, which makes them one of the best offenses in the nation, that only supplies

half of the answer here. The rest must come from whether or not defensive

coordinator Ron English and his players can do something that we have not seen a

Michigan defense do in a long time â€“ stop a quality spread offense led by a mobile

QB. In the last three bowls games we have seen the opposition ring up 38, 32 and

32 against them, and after seeing the way that Appalachian State and Oregon made

this unit look slow back in September, we can only wonder how many holes that

Urban Meyer might find for Tim Tebow and some skill people with great quickness

to exploit. The fact that Michiganâ€™s defensive numbers got better down the

stretch was more a result of the competition than any special growing up that

might have taken place for this unit. The bottom line is that we see an explosive

affair in which neither side figures to stop the other very easily, and with two savvy

quarterbacks that take good care of the ball, opportunities should turn into points.

FLORIDA 38-30.

GATOR BOWL

(January 1 at Jacksonville)

TEXAS TECH over VIRGINIA by 9

Once upon a time, playing in the ACC meant going up against great QBâ€™s and

sophisticated passing attacks. Not this season. It was a flat-out awful year for

offenses in that conference, and a big part of it was a lack of QB play. And if

Virginia did not even face the best of them, Matt Ryan of Boston College, then just

how much weight do we attach to those solid defensive numbers of the Cavaliers?

Not a whole lot, that is what, especially when there was nothing special about the

offenses that they faced in non-conference competition either. That means that

they are not exactly well-prepared for facing the best passing attack in the land, and

that we are likely to see some shock from a defensive huddle that has rarely been

over-matched this season. Even more shock comes from the fact that Mike Leach

has had ample time to tweak his playbook, as has been his history in bowl games,

and that means even more ways to get the ball to Michael Crabtree, who somehow

never got into the Heisman hunt despite a remarkable freshman season in which

he caught 125 passes, good for 1,861 yards and 21 touchdowns. And while the Red

Raiders are not here because of their defense note that there is reason to at least

expect a little spark from that side of the ball â€“ this may end up being a one-game

playoff for interim defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill to show why he should

get that job full time. Cavaliers are only here because of a fluky 5-0 record in games

decided by two points or less, and those dice can go cold vs. this class. TEXAS

TECH 37-28.

ROSE BOWL

(January 1 at Pasadena)

SOUTHERN CAL over ILLINOIS by 17

For as excited as Ron Zook and his team are to have earned this berth so early in

the building process, it may ultimately become one of those â€œbe careful what you

wish forâ€ moments. The reward of being in the Rose Bowl comes with the challenge

of taking on the team that is playing the best football of any in the nation

right now, and once that will cause them some matchup problems. The Illinois

surge has been a result of Zook and Juice Williams arriving at the same time, with

the latter providing a mobile look at QB that has caused real problems for slower

defenses in the Big 10. That included the stunning upset at Ohio State, when the

Buckeye defense was repeatedly a half step away from making plays against

Williams. But now that can be corralled by one of the fastest defenses in the nation,

and one that has experience against such attacks. And it is a defense that was kicking

its game into a higher gear down the stretch, once they were able to get everyone

healthy again. The speed at LB makes a particular difference here â€“ shut down

the Illinois ground game and this offense has a difficult time challenging through

the air, where they rated 82nd nationally in passing efficiency. But even with the

Trojan defense dominating the game the pointspread still looms large, because for

once Pete Carroll does not have a lot of playmakers on offense - Southern Cal only

had one touchdown all season on a play of 50 yards or more. There is still enough

to merit the call here, however, particularly with the two week edge in playing

rhythm, with their win over U.C.L.A. coming long after Illinois had finished up

vs. Northwester. SOUTHERN CAL 31-14.

SUGAR BOWL

(January 1 at New Orleans)

GEORGIA over HAWAII by 15

In our Rose Bowl analysis we wrote about Illinois being in a â€œbe careful what you

wish forâ€ setting, and we can begin this one the same way. By going undefeated,

while others around the nation were stumbling, June Jones and his Warriors have

made their way into a BCS bowl. That is great for the program, but this result will

not be. Now they have to take on a Georgia team has been outstanding down the

stretch, which is what was expected of a young but talented team that needed some

time to develop. And the bottom line is that Hawaii is overmatched. Instead of

using Colt Brennan and that deep corps of WRâ€™s to wear down lesser opponents,

Jones now has to deal with a defense that not only has the personnel to rush

Brennan, but to also cover man-to-man all over the field. And what can happen

when this offense faces any kind of challenge away from home? The truth is that

we do not know, because it did not happen this season â€“ the only trip to face a bowl

team was that last-play escape at mediocre Nevada when Brennan sat out most of

the way. But note that Brennan was intercepted four times in an overtime win at

San Jose State, and five more at Nevada. Those are ominous signs when stepping

up against this class of defense. They headaches get worse when Georgia has the

ball, when Knowshon Moreno and Thomas Brown pound away against an undersized

defensive front, which in turn means that Matthew Stafford has plenty of

time in play action to throw deep down the field. Hope the Warriors enjoy the

Cajun food. GEORGIA 42-27.

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 6:45am
0 likes

DR BOB ( 10-9)

2 Star Selection

**Wisconsin 31 Tennessee (-3.0) 27 (at Outback Bowl at Tampa) 08:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 These two teams are very similar, as both teams are good offensively, mediocre on defense and have very good special teams. Tennessee averaged 5.7 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Erik Ainge improved a bit once the broken pinky on this throwing hand was completely healthy after the week 5 bye. That attack will be going up against a mediocre Wisconsin defense that allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I actually rate the Badgers as 0.2 yppl worse than average after losing starting CB Allen Lanford and DT Jason Chapman late in the season. But, star LB Elijah Hodge should be at full strength after missing most of the last two games with minor injuries.

Wisconsinâ€™s offense should also move the ball well. The Badgers averaged 5.8 yppl in the regular season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but Wisconsin was slightly worse (by 0.1 yppl) in the final 6 games without big play receiver Luke Swan, who will also miss this game. The loss of running back P.J. Hill will have no impact at all since Hillâ€™s compensated yards per rush (5.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.9 ypr to an average back) is the same as that of Zach Brown (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.8 ypr), who took over for Hill the final 3 games of the regular season. Lance Smith-Williams and his 6.2 ypr is also available, so the Badgers could be even better running the ball without Hill. Tennesseeâ€™s defense was only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl), so the Badgers have an advantage when they have the ball.

Neither quarterback is interception prone, having thrown 10 picks each, and my math model favors Tennessee by 3 points in this game - which is what the line is. The reason for the play on Wisconsin is a 16-0 ATS subset of a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation and a 32-7 ATS bowl angle that both favor Wisconsin. The Badgers played below expectations this season (4-7 ATS) but they were still good enough to make it to one of the New Yearâ€™s Bowl games. Good teams that under-performed in the regular season tend to improve during the month-plus of bowl preparation, as teams playing in major bowl games (the 5 BCS Bowls plus the other New Yearâ€™s Day Bowls â€“ the Outback, Cotton, Citrus, and Gator) are 18-8 ATS as underdogs if they had a losing pointspread record in the regular season when facing a team that has a winning pointspread mark (12-4 ATS against teams that were 3 games or more above .500 ATS, as the Vols were).

Iâ€™ll play this game on the basis of the strong technical indicators and Iâ€™ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-115 odds or less) or more.

2 Star Selection

**Hawaii 32 Georgia (-8.5) 31 (at Sugar Bowl) 05:30 PM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Unbeaten Hawaii had some close calls against a few bad teams, but the Warriors raised their level of play against the good teams that they faced and they have a pretty good shot at an outright upset in this game. Hawaii played their toughest 4 opponents in their final 4 games of the year, facing Bowl teams Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State and Pac-10 rep Washington, who would have been a bowl team if they didnâ€™t face the toughest schedule in the nation. In those 4 games the Warriors averaged 7.5 yards per play while allowing only 5.3 yppl. Those are very impressive numbers considering that those 4 opponents would combine to average 5.9 yppl and allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. For the season Hawaiiâ€™s potent attack was 1.5 yppl better than average (7.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack), but they were 2.2 yppl better than average in those final 4 games when challenged by decent teams. Hawaii has the type of offense that can move the ball even on good defensive teams, so they are relatively better when facing good defenses than they are against bad defensive teams since the level of opposing defense doesnâ€™t have as much impact on Hawaiiâ€™s attack. That has certainly been the case with Colt Brennan, who was 1.7 yards per pass play better than average for the season (8.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) but was 2.1 yppp better than average against the 6 mediocre or better than average pass defenses he faced (8.1 yppp against Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Fresno, Boise and Washington â€“ who would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Georgia has a very good pass defense that yielded just 5.5 yppp in 11 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average team. Colt Brennan is not fazed by good defensive teams, as he threw for nearly 500 yards and averaged 8.8 yppp against Boise State â€“ the best pass defense he faced this season. Boise, at 0.5 yppp better than average defending the pass, is not quite as good as Georgiaâ€™s pass defense (the Bulldogs are 0.9 yppp better than average), but Brennan faced some very good pass defenses last season and thrived. Brennan threw for 9.9 yppp against the 2006 unbeaten Boise State team that was 0.8 yppp better than average against the pass and he averaged 8.6 yppp combined last season in games against the good pass defenses of Alabama, Boise State, Oregon State and Arizona State. Those teams would have combined to allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback, which is pretty close to how good Georgiaâ€™s defense is this year. That included Brennanâ€™s 542 yards at 11.8 yppp in the bowl game against an Arizona State defense that was 0.6 yppp better than average. My math model projects 6.9 yppp for Brennan in this game but that number would be 7.4 yppp based on his habit of playing relatively better against better defensive teams. Hawaii has scored 28 points or more in 25 consecutive games and the Warriors are likely to top 30 points in this game.

What is often overlooked is how good Hawaiiâ€™s defense has been this season. The Warriors didnâ€™t have to flex their defensive muscle too often, as they played a lot of bad offensive teams, but that defense played great when challenged by good offensive teams in their final 3 games. The only better than average offensive teams that Hawaii faced were Nevada, Boise State and Washington, who would combine to average 6.0 yards per play against an average defensive team. The Warriors finished the season against those 3 good offensive teams and held them to a combined 5.2 yppl. For the season Hawaii yielded 5.0 yppl in 10 games against Division 1A opposition that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Georgiaâ€™s offense was only 0.6 yppl better than average in their 11 games against D-1A competition with Matt Stafford in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl), so the Bulldogs only have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Hawaiiâ€™s defense and I actually think the Warriorsâ€™ stop unit is just as good as Georgiaâ€™s offense when they are forced to play at fully intensity â€“ as they will be in this game.

My math model favors Georgia by only 5 points even with a 2.2 points edge for projected turnovers and a 3.9 points advantage for the Bulldogs in special teams and Hawaii is 50/50 to win this game straight up if they play this game at the level theyâ€™ve played against other good teams that theyâ€™ve faced. This game is similar to the situation that unbeaten WAC champion Boise State was in last season as a 7 point underdog to Oklahoma (a 43-42 winner). While Hawaii played a pretty easy schedule they did play their best against the best teams they faced and they have the confidence that they can beat anyone. Teams with 1 loss or fewer are 22-6 ATS in bowl games as underdogs of 7 points or more (6- 0 ATS the last 4 years), so getting a touchdown or more with a team that is not used to losing has been a pretty good bet. I realize that Georgia played their best ball down the stretch, but they arenâ€™t likely to continue to play at such a high level after having more than a month off. In fact, teams that finished the regular season by covering 3 or more consecutive games are just 40% ATS in bowl games since 1980 (51-76-2 ATS) when not facing a team also on a 3 game spread win streak.

Iâ€™ll take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.

Strong Opinion

Florida (-10.0) 37 Michigan 22 (at Capital One Bowl - Orlando) 10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Florida is the best team in the nation despite their 3 losses and the Gators spread attack should be no match for a Michigan team that was torched by the similar spread offenses of Appalachian State and Oregon early in the season. Floridaâ€™s offense is easily the best in the nation, as the Gators averaged 210 yards on the ground at 5.8 yards per rushing play while Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow averaged a ridiculous 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, Florida averaged a stunning 7.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while averaging 5.5 yppl or more against every team they faced. Michiganâ€™s defensive numbers are good for the season, as the Wolverines yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. However, spread offenses with good running quarterbacks (i.e. Appalachian State and Oregon) gave the Wolverines trouble as Appalachian averaged 5.9 yppl and scored 34 points while Oregon racked up 610 total yards at 8.1 yppl and had 32 points at the half before calling off the dogs in a 39-7 victory at Ann Arbor. Iâ€™m sure Michigan will try to devise ways to defend the spread better than they did in those two games, but my math model projects 6.9 yppl and 38 points for Florida in this game if Michigan plays as well defensively as they did overall this season.

Michiganâ€™s offense just isnâ€™t good enough to keep up, as the Wolverines were 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Michigan was 0.1 yppl worse than average with running back Mike Hart, quarterback Chad Henne, and WR Mario Manningham all playing, but thatâ€™s still not good enough. Running against Florida is not easy (the Gators allowed just 3.8 yprp to teams that would average 4.9 yprp aginst an average team), but Henne and Manningham should have pretty good success against a sub-par Gatorsâ€™ pass defense that allowed 6.2 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team. Michigan will probably be too conservative to take advantage of the only match-up that may work for them in this game and my math model projects 346 total yards at 5.1 yppl if they throw the ball a bit more than they run it instead of running it 53% of the time as they normally do.

In addition to dominating this game in total yards the Gators also have much better special teams than Michigan does and my math model favors Florida by 17 points. Iâ€™d like to play Florida here but the Gators apply to a negative 36-67-1 ATS Bowl angle that will keep me off of this game as a Best Bet. Iâ€™ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less and Iâ€™ll lean with the Gators if the line goes higher than 10 points.

Missouri (-3) vs Arkansas: My math favors Arkansas and the angles favor Missouri. Iâ€™ll call for Missouri by 3 points.

Texas Tech (-6) vs Virginia: I lean slightly with Texas Tech.

USC (-13 Â½) vs Illinois: I lean slightly with Illinois.

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 6:45am
0 likes

Northcoast:

5* Over 59.5 Mich

4* Georgia

Northcoast (more):

Top Opinion:

USC

Tenn

Missouri

Regular opinion:

Michigan

Virginia

Triple Play:

USC under 49

Double Play:

Wisc over

Arkansas over

Single Play:

Virgina under

Hawaii over

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 10:37am
0 likes

TALLY

Wisc-18

Tenn--19

over-4

under-5

Ark-13

Miss--24

over-4

under-3

Mich-22

Flor-15

over-7

under-1

T.Tech-16

Virg-16

over-6

under-5

Ill-13

USC-19

over-9

under-9

Haw-16

Geor-23

over-4

under-1

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 11:03am
0 likes

Teddy Juneâ€™s 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year (Career 25*: 6-0 100%)

My 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year is the Michigan Wolverines plus the points over the Florida Gators. Michigan enters this afternoonâ€™s game 8-4 SU and the Gators enter 9-3 SU. It has been an interesting year for the Wolverines to say the least. Coach Lloyd Carr has announced his retirement and the team has had an up and down season due to quite a few key injuries. For the first time since September todayâ€™s game will have seniors Mike Hart and Chad Henne completely healthy. Even with the amount of time Hart has missed and games in which he has played hurt numbers wise he still had a very solid year (1232 yards rushing, 12 TDâ€™s and 5.3ypc). Offensively their rankings and statistics are not indicative of what this team is capable of due to injuries and I do expect this offense to be in great shape with a little over a month of healthy practice to prepare. Defensively this team has been fairly strong this year minus the well publicized hiccups. Ron English is a terrific defense coordinator and with this much time to prepare for a team I expect them to be well prepared for the Florida attack. Michigan does rank 24th in the nation in total yards, 8th in the nation in passing yards against, and 20th in the nation in points allowed at 20.2 per game. Meanwhile for the Florida Gators it has been a bit of a down year as well, the highlight certainly being Tebow winning the Heisman at the end of the year but overall a disappointing season. Offensively this team has been very strong all year ranking high in most categories, defensively they have really struggled against the pass as they rank 87th in the nation but have been very solid against the run. That being said in the 3 games they lost this season they were torched on the ground including the Georgia loss in which Moreno ran for 188 yards and 3 TDâ€™s. This bodes well for a healthy Mike Hart drooling at the chance to be let loose in this huge game. For well over a month now Michigan has heard from the media how their too slow to face an SEC school and how they will get gashed on defense by a potent Florida spread attack. Theyâ€™ve heard that Heisman winning quarterback Tim Tebow will run and pass all over their defense on route to an easy victory. If they didnâ€™t need any more motivation than from the ridicule and criticism that has been put on this program all season long well they have it. Tebow will be back for another year so game doesnâ€™t mean nearly what it means for some key Michigan players. Mike Hart and Chad Henne will be gone after this game and a big NFL audition in todayâ€™s bowl certainly would boost fading draft stock after the injury plagued seasons. Meanwhile, Mannigham has stated he is not sure if he will return I expect he will leave as well assuming he has a decent game today. Draft stock on the line for key players and expect an extremely inspired effort from the Wolverines for their coach in his last game. It is noteworthy that double digit bowl underdogs have been cash machines the last few years including a perfect 2-0 this year. Also, Heisman Trophy-winning teams are a mere 7-18 ATS as bowlers since 1980 including last yearâ€™s loser with Troy Smith. My 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year is the Michigan Wolverines plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Letâ€™s make some money.

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 12:27pm
0 likes

BIG Al---

Championship--Hawaii over--

Blue Chip--Mizz--

Line Mover--Wisky--

10Dimes--USC--

Offshore Steam--TTech under--

Computer boys--Hawaii

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 12:28pm
0 likes

BIG AL's 5* COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR!!!!

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbows plus the points over Georgia, as Hawaii falls into 68-36, 82-31, and 77-23 ATS systems of mine. This is NOT your father's Hawaii team, as the Rainbows are playing defense this season. Hawaii's stop unit led the WAC Conference with 28 turnovers created this season, and the Rainbows ranked among the top 40 teams nationally on defense. On the other side of the ball, Hawaii led the nation in scoring at 46.2 ppg on 529 yards per game. A lot is being made of the fact that Hawaii is the only undefeated team this season (at 13-0), but don't overlook the fact that Hawaii also won 10 of its last 11 games in 2006 (going 7-3 ATS with one non-lined game). Combined, Hawaii is now 23-1 SU its past 24 games, with its lone defeat by a mere 3 points to Oregon State. In addition to Colt Brennan, Hawaii also boasts a terrific wide receiving corps that includes Jason Rivers and Davone Bess. And, with this game being played indoors on turf, in perfect climate conditions, Hawaii's pass offense won't be slowed down by wind, mud, or a torn-up field. Georgia's top running back, Knowshon Moreno won't start today, as he's recovering from a sprained ankle, so Thomas Brown will start, and may get the load of the carries for Georgia if Moreno's ankle gives him problems today. But Moreno gets 12 yards per catch out of the backfield, so if he's not 100% healthy, his productivity will be sorely missed. Take Hawaii plus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other Bowl Winners today (including a 5*), and I also have a great daytime winner for you in College Basketball

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 12:29pm
0 likes

NEW YEARS DAY SERVICE REPORT--------------------

HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!!

SERVICE REPORT

ATS Lock Club...............8*Georgia 7*Florida

......................................6*USC 5*Arkansas

......................................4*Wisconsin 3*Virginia

Big 10 Sports..................Upset Bowl Game Of The Year: Michigan

Brandon Lang...............20*USC

.....................................10*Missouri

......................................5*Michigan

Dave Cokin....................Under The Hat: Wisconsin

......................................Window Play: Illinois

......................................System Play: Michigan

......................................Big Gun: Arkansas

......................................3*Georgia & Virginia

Director Sports..............Top: Virginia

.....................................Regular: Florida, Missouri & Hawaii

Doctor Bob.....................2*Wisconsin & Hawaii

Frank Magliosa..............Virginia & Tennessee

Guarantee Picks............Michigan

Jim Feist........................Inner Circle: Florida

......................................Personal Best: Missouri

......................................5*Arkansas

Joe Gavazzi(PPP)..........4*Missouri

......................................1*Wisconsin

Kelso Sturgeon..............25*Florida, Illinois & Georgia

Las Vegas Sports...........Bowl Game Of The Year: Georgia

......................................10*USC

Lenny Stevens...............20*Michigan

......................................10*Arkansas & USC

LT Profits.......................3*Virginia

......................................2*Wisconsin & Arkansas

Northcoast.....................5*Mich/Fla(O)

......................................4*Georgia

Purelock........................Bowl Game Of The Year: Virginia

Randy Radtke................Top: Wisconsin

Rocketman....................Bowl Game Of The Year: Virginia

Sports Authority.............Bowl Game Of The Year: USC/Illini(U)

Sports Bank...................Bowl Game Of The Year: Florida

Sports Doctor.................Bowl Game Of The Year: Florida

Texas Sports Brokers....Bowl Game Of The Year: Illinois

......................................10*Texas Tech 5*Georgia

VIP LOck Club...............500*Missouri

......................................250+Michigan

Wayne Root...................Bowl Game Of The Year: Michigan

......................................Billionaire: Wisconsin

......................................No Limit: Hawaii

......................................Money Maker: USC

......................................Chairman Of The Board: Arkansas

Windy City Sports..........Bowl Game Of The Year: Georgia

Winners Path.................Top: Illinois

......................................Regular: Georgia

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 12:45pm
0 likes

Brandon Lovell

Blank Check Game of my Career Texas Tech -6

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 12:47pm
0 likes

Cannon's Amazing Bowl Systems

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is easy....

2 Units

Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

Navy (Winner)

Memphis (Loser)

Colorado(Loser)

Florida St.( tie?) (winner? )

Rutgers

3 Units and 5 Units

Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.

If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units.

Southern Miss 3 Units (WINNER)

Nevada 3 Units (LOSER)

UCLA 3 Units (WINNER)

East Carolina 3 Units (Winner)

Purdue Moneyline 5 Units (Winner)

Texas Moneyline 5 Units (Winner)

Mich St. 3 Untis (Winner)

TCU 5 Units (Winner)

Maryland 3 Units (Loser)

Wake Forest 5 Units Moneyline (Winner)

Mississippi St. 3 Units(Winner)

Texas AM 3 Units(Loser)

California 5 Units Moneyline(Winner)

Georgia Tech Moneyline 5 Units(Loser)

Oregon 3 Units(Winner)

Okla St. 5 Units Moneyline (Winner)

Auburn 3 Units( Winner) Total so far 13-4!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tenn Moneyline 5 Units

Arkansas 3 units

Michigan 3 Units

Texas Tech Moneyline 5 Units

Illinois 3 Units

Georiga Moneyline 5 Units

West Virgina 3 Units

Virginia Tech Moneyline 5 Units

Bowling Green 3 Units

LSU Moneyline 5 Units

Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

Auburn( Winner)

Hawaii

Illinois

West Virginia

Kansas

Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams

Texas (WInner)

Tennessee

LSU

(THESE SHOULD ALL WIN)

A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team

Southern Miss (WInner)

UCLA (WINNER)

East Carolina (WInner)

Mich St. (WInner)

Oregon(Winner) 5-0 so far!!!

Arkansas

Michigan

(THIS IS ON FIRE SO FAR)

A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team

THESE ARE MY HOLIDAY GIFT GAMES FOR EVERYONE

WAKE FOREST ( Winner )

TEXAS TECH

These systems are solid winning info.

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 12:48pm
0 likes

SPORTS UNLIMITED

BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR

GEORGIA

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 12:49pm
0 likes

1. Ats 1t 8-ga, 7-fla, 6-usc

2. Bankers 1t 400-tt, Ga Over

3. Ben Burns Bgoy - Ga, Ark, Usc Under

4. Big Money Mich

5. Blazer 4 3-tenn, Mich, Va

6. Carolina Sports 4-mizz, 3-fla, Va, Usc

7. Doc Enterprises 5 5-usc, 4-wisc Under, Va, Mich, Ga

8. Dr. Bob 2-wisc, Haw

9. Gameday 3 5-bgoy - Mich, 3-usc, 2-mizz, Wisc

10. Inside Info 3-tenn, 2-mich, Ill

11. Joe D 20-mizz, Ga, 15-tt, Fla

12. Lenny Stevens 20-mich, 10-ark, Usc

13. Lt Profits 3-va, 2-wisc, Ark

14. Nationwide (goldst) 6 Top: Mich Over, Reg: Tenn, Haw

15. Neri 5-fla, 4-fla Over, 3-tt, 2-usc, Ga

16. Northcoast 5- Mich Over, 4-ga

17. Pointwise 2-haw

18. Preferred Picks 5-mich, 4-wisc, 3-va

19. Private Players 4-mizz, Mich And Over, Ga, 3-usc Under

20. Score 400-mizz, Ga, 300- Fla, Usc

21. Underdog Va

22. Pure Lock Bgoy- Va

posted by phantom

Jan. 1 2008 1:04pm
0 likes

NorthCoast Powersweep

system selection

Play against a team on New Year's Day whose offense averaged 32+ points and they had 40+ days rest

17-6 74% ATS since 1998

play against Texas Tech play Virginia winner

UPDATED 18-6 75%

play against Kansas play Virginia Tech

Missouri while high profile games have been a norm for VT.

FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 30 Kansas 17 RATING: 4★

posted by phantom

Jan. 3 2008 2:55pm
0 likes

POINTWISE PHONE (2-5 LAST 3 DAYS)

2* KanSAS

__________________

posted by phantom

Jan. 3 2008 2:56pm
0 likes

THE SPORTS MEMO ( 17-11 !)

Virginia Tech -3 (-120) vs. Kansas O/U 54 Recommendation: Virginia Tech

__________________

posted by phantom

Jan. 3 2008 2:56pm
0 likes

DR BOB ( 11-15)

Virginia Tech (-3 Â½) vs Kansas: I like Kansas plus the points

posted by phantom

Jan. 3 2008 2:56pm
0 likes

Orange Bowl: Kansas vs. Virginia Tech (-3, 51) Thursday, Jan. 3, 8:00 pm ET

*************ATS trends*************

--Kansas Jayhawks--

Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

--Virginia Tech Hokies--

Hokies are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.

Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.

Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Hokies are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.

Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Over/under trends

Kansas

Under is 4-1 in Jayhawks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 4-1 in Jayhawks last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Virginia Tech

Under is 6-0 in Hokies last 6 Thursday games.

Under is 6-1 in Hokies last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Over is 5-1 in Hokies last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Under is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

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#48 01-03-2008, 08:52 AM

Dubya

Cappers Mall Team Join Date: Aug 2005

Posts: 574

THE GOLD SHEET

ORANGE BOWL

KANSAS (11-1) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (11-2)

Thursday, January 3 Night at Miami, FL (Grass Field)

TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR

Kansas 11 10-110-1 43 17 195 295 61-25-32 103 238 24-7-16 +19 8.0 13.6

Virg. Tech 12 10-2 7-4 28 17 134 203 40-19-15 93 203 24-13-9 +10 6.0 9.8

*Virginia Tech 27 - Kansas 19â€”The â€œstrength of scheduleâ€ argument is hardly

a foolproof one, especially as it relates to successful teams having faced a lessthan-

demanding slate. It doesnâ€™t necessarily mean that squad canâ€™t meet a

serious challenge when presented. How, then, should we evaluate Kansas, a

revelation in winning its first 11 games (and covering the first ten vs. the

number), but undoubtedly the beneficiary of a woeful non-conference schedule

and fortuitous Big XII fixture list that avoided all of the heavyweights (namely

Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech) from the southern half of the loop?

As it relates to this bowl matchup vs. Virginia Tech, we believe more might

be learned from the Jayhawksâ€™ November 24 loss vs. Missouri, when KU was

outclassed for much of the night before a belated late rally vs. the Tigersâ€™

prevent defense made the final score look a bit more respectable. Not to

mention the fundamental challenge presented by the Hokies, whose defensive

presence is far more menacing than any the Jayhawks were forced to confront

during the regular season.

And how the KU attack fares vs. a typically disruptive Bud Foster Hokie â€œDâ€

is paramount to any analysis of this matchup. Although Jayhawk soph QB Todd

Reesing (32 TDP vs. only 6 picks!) was certainly marvelous in â€˜07, itâ€™s worth

noting that he and the potent KU attack didnâ€™t post big numbers vs. the moredemanding

tests on the schedule. The Jayhawks scored only 19 points at both

Colorado & Texas A&M; Reesing netted less than 200 passing yards vs. both

the Buffs and Aggies; KUâ€™s usually-robust infantry gained only 42 rushing yards

in that Big XII North showdown vs. Mizzou.

Indeed, we are a bit more impressed with what VT has accomplished,

especially down the stretch when the Hokies were definitely one of the nationâ€™s

hottest teams, winning and covering their last 5, and 7 of their last 8, avenging

their only defeat in that span by beating BC in ACC title game. VTâ€™s offense,

which struggled in September and much of October, began to jell as its young

OL matured and sr. QB Sean Glennon returned to the lineup following an earlyseason

stint on the bench. And HC Frank Beamer seems to have found the

proper balance by rotating Glennon and more-elusive true frosh Tyrod Taylor at

QB, creating a awkward change-of-pace for opposing defenses. Hard as it is to

imagine anything being too big a bite for Jayhawk HC Mark Mangino to swallow,

the combo of VTâ€™s harassing â€œDâ€ and now-capable Hokie â€œOâ€ will cause the KU

coach lots of indigestion.

(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)

posted by phantom

Jan. 3 2008 2:59pm
0 likes

WINNING POINTS

ORANGE BOWL

(January 3 at Miami)

VIRGINIA TECH over KANSAS by 7

OK, it is way too easy of a reference to Dorothy looking wide-eyed and saying

â€œWeâ€™re not in Kansas anymoreâ€, but that really is a proper way to start this one.

While Mark Manginoâ€™s team was one of the truly great stories in college football

this season, the Jayhawks have had one of the easiest schedule rides ever for a team

to get to a BCS bowl. Now they have to do all of their prep for this game after suffering

their first loss of the season, which can create some confidence issues, and

the big-time spotlight is also thrown on a team that has precious little experience

in such settings. They have only been to two previous bowls in Manginoâ€™s six seasons,

and in the only underdog appearance for rocked by 30 vs. N. C. State four

years ago. Now they are in against the real thing both in terms of talent and experience.

Virginia Tech was just a late rally by Matt Ryan and Boston College of having

gone 12-1, and the Hokies had to earn their way, facing the likes of LSU,

Clemson, Georgia Tech and Virginia on the road, and then handling Boston

College in a rematch on a neutral field to earn this trip. They bring more speed and

aggressiveness on defense than Todd Reesing faced in what was a soft Big 12 this

season, and if he is a half step late with the ball it can mean the kind of game-turning

mistakes that Tech has made a routine part of the game under Frank Beamer,

with this saosn no different â€“ the defense and special teams directly scored six

touchdowns. And with Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor both healthy, there is the

opportunity to throw entirely different looks at a Jayhawk defense that in reality

may be nothing special. VIRGINIA TECH 29-22.

posted by phantom

Jan. 3 2008 3:00pm
0 likes

SPORTS MEMO

Virginia Tech -3 (-120) vs. Kansas O/U 54 Recommendation: Virginia Tech

What a season it has been for the Kansas Jayhawks. Predicted to finish

fifth or sixth in the Big 12 North by most, this team exceeded expectations

and was ranked No. 1 in the nation late in the season. A closer look

though potentially exposes this team as a fraudulent upper echelon

team. Buoyed by a ridiculously soft non-conference schedule, believers

did not come around until the Jayhawks defeated Kansas State, Colorado

and Texas A&M on the road in the month of October. Those three

wins would prove to be the Jayhawksâ€™ biggest accomplishment. Until

the season finale meeting for a division championship against Missouri,

Kansas had remained unbeaten and talks of a National Title were increasing.

Kansas played from behind as Missouri dominated the game,

limiting KU to fewer than 50 rushing yards while holding an overall yardage

advantage of 519-391. Looking back over the season we can see that

Kansas played one of the softest schedules in the country. They did not

have to face either Oklahoma or Texas and the non conference slate

consisted of four home games against weak competition. Virginia Tech

will be the toughest defense the Jayhawks have faced. The Hokies held

good opposition with solid running games like Clemson, Virginia and

Miami to fewer than 3.0 yards per carry. In half their games this season

the VT defense held the opposition to 2 or less yards per rush. This is

a huge advantage. While Kansas also had success defensively, it was

not nearly as dominant and the overall success was more a product of

the lack of quality competition. Virginia Tech was not only a defensive

stalwart this season as the offense improved each week. After early

season struggles and non-descript offensive play over the first quarter

of the season, the Hokies won seven of eight and were a fluky rain

soaked comeback away from playing for a National Title. They scored

30-plus points in six of those victories and 40-plus in four of the wins.

Quarterbacks Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor provided multiple looks

and styles making it extremely difficult for defenses to have success.

Combined the tandem threw/rushed for 23 touchdowns while throwing

just five interceptions. Glennon especially performed well down the

stretch, throwing just one interception over the last 10 games. Statistically

these numbers pale in comparison to Kansas quarterback Todd

Reesing who threw for 3,259 yards and 32 touchdowns. While Reesing

was quite impressive the bulk of those numbers came against inferior

competition. In their toughest games Kansas relied more heavily on the

running game and defense. On the road or in neutral site games against

solid defenses (Colorado, Texas A&M, Kansas State and Missouri) Kansas

averaged 24 points per game. In their other eight games they averaged

55 points per game. Part of the reason for the big numbers was

a huge +19 turnover margin. Virginia Tech is not likely to be victimized

by this offense because they do not turn the ball over and they too

dominate the turnover margin. This game is simple as Virginia Tech

has the better defense and offense and a significant edge in special

teams as well. With a short price and a better more battle tested team,

weâ€™ll lay the number as Virginia Tech gets the win and spread cover

posted by phantom

Jan. 3 2008 3:00pm
0 likes

POINTWISE

VIRGINIA TECH (11-2) vs KANSAS (11-1)

THURSDAY, JANUARY 3

8:00 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:

Va Tech ....... 44.2 .. 29-15 .. 16-14 .. 134- 86 ... 199-207.. +13 . Va Tech

Kansas ....... 38.7 .. 44-16 .. 22-18 .. 197- 91 ... 294-227.. +19 . by 3.7 Pts

ANALYSIS

This could be a classic. For the 15th straight year, the Hokies of Virginia Tech

are going bowling. Under head coach Frank Beamer, they have been noted

for their stellar defenses, & superior special teams play. And this season has

been no exception, as Tech ranks 5th, 2nd, & 5th in rushing, total, & scoring

"D", while recording 43 sacks, & 21 interceptions (3rd & 5th best in the land,

respectively). In its ACC title win over Boston College, Tech blocked 2 kicks,

intercepted 2 passes, & held BC to 3.4 ypr. Offensively, it is another matter,

as the Hokies rank 99th in total "O" (81st in rushing, 85th in passing). Ore has

been their "go-to" back, toting the pig for >2,000 the past couple of years, but

for just 4.2 ypr. Glennon is the head chucker in Beamer's duo QB system, as

he & Taylor have a combined 2,552 yds, 16 TDs, & just 5 INTs. A check at the

above stats again show Tech with a huge edge in TOs. But perusing that

column also shows that their opponents here, the Jayhawks of Kansas, have

taken a back seat to no other team in the nation in that department, tying with

Florida Atlantic as the best in the land in that important stat: +19. At year's

end, the Jays ranked 13th in the nation in total defense, 7th vs the run, & 3rd

in scoring. But it has been that KU "O" (#2 in scoring), led by QB Reesing,

which made weekly headlines, eventually vaulting the Jays to the 2nd spot in

the nation, with 11-0 SU & 10-0 ATS records. They had a shot at the first-ever

team with an 11-0 ATS mark, but came up short in their match with potent

Missouri. However, they definitely deserve this spot. The underdog has gone

5-1 ATS in Hokie bowl games since '01, & this one makes it 6-of-7. Kansas!

PROPHECY: KANSAS 27 - Virginia Tech 20 RATING: 3

posted by phantom

Jan. 3 2008 3:00pm
0 likes

Orange Bowl

By: Totals 4 U

Kansas (11-1, 7-1 Big 12, #8 BCS) gave the BCS Committee, who clearly wasnâ€™t excited about them getting into their 2008 Championship Game, an early Christmas present when they came up short in the Big Championship with a 28-36 loss to Missouri and this is Coach Manginioâ€™s (36-36 in 6th year in Lawrence) squadâ€™s opportunity to prove the pollsters wrong. The Jayhawksâ€™ explosive offense is one of the best in the nation, but itâ€™s the defense of Coordinator Bill Young that makes the Crimson and Blue a complete contender. Just 192 points were allowed all season (16.0 points per game) by a crew that didnâ€™t miss a single start due to injury all season while holding opponents to 91.4 rush yards (at 3.1 yards per carry and just 7 rush TD) and 226.8 pass yards (at 5.5 yards per attempt). The Job of the foursome up front hasnâ€™t simply been to rush the pocket blindly (only 21 sacks) but to control the line of scrimmage with gap discipline and get their hands up at the quarterbackâ€™s release. Linemen 6â€™4â€ 240 junior LDE Russell Brorsen (32 T, 3 TFL, INT), 6â€™1â€ 285 senior RDT James McClinton (38 T, 11 TFL, 2 Â½ S, INT), and 6â€™3â€ 250 junior RDE John Larsen (39 T, 11 TFL, 1 Â½ S, 2 INT) each have recorded picks this season due to this approach and a ton of tipped balls have been the source of Kansasâ€™s 20 team interceptions in 2007. Former Ohio State linebacker, Steve Tovar, coaches a superb crew in the middle with 6â€™3â€ 22 junior James Holt (91 T, 12 TFL, S), 6â€™1â€ 235 junior Joe Mortensen (98 T, 14 TFL, 2 S), and 6â€™5â€ 255 Mike Rivera (84 T, 9 Â½ TFL, 2 S, INT) making the big hits created by the gap control up front. Jahawk corners 6â€™2â€ 205 junior Aquib Talib (61 T, 3 Â½ TFL, 4 INT) and 6â€™0â€ 180 freshman Chris Harris (61 T, Â½ TFL, INT) are both big in stature while 6â€™1â€ 205 sophomore FS Darrell Stuckey (66 T, 2 TFL, 2 INT) has a good nose for the ball.

Kansasâ€™s offense piled up the points in bunches (44.3 per game) with 5â€™11â€ 200 sophomore QB Todd Reesing (256 of 409 for 3259 yards, 32 TD, 6 INT) at the trigger who found 8 different receivers in the end zone in 2007. The size 6â€™4â€ senior WR Marcus Henry (52 for 994 and 9 TD), 6â€™3â€ senior TE Derek Fine (44 for 380 and 4 TD), 6â€™0â€ junior WR Dexton Fields (56 for 733 and 6 TD), and 6â€™3â€ freshman WR Dezmon Briscoe (41 for 476 and 7 TD) has helped the diminutive Reesing to find his mark while experience (1 senior and 4 juniors) and continuity (59 of 60 possible starts) by the Jayhawk offensive line (6â€™4 Â½â€ and 301 pounds per man) have given him time to pick up 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 294.5 yards through the air per contest. Coach Manginioâ€™s rushing game â€“ like himself - doesnâ€™t waste much time juking and jiving. The Thunder and Lightning tandem of 6â€™0â€ 235 senior Brandon McAnderson (175 for 1050 and 16 TD) and 5â€™10â€ 190 sophomore Jake Sharp (138 for 788 and 7 TD) have surrendered total losses of just 28 yards in 313 carries while pacing a unit the has racked up196.6 yards on the ground per game to go with 29 rushing touchdowns. Keep your eye out for sophomore backup quarterback Kerry Meier, who has caught 20 passes and rushes 15 times this season, and the return tandem of Marcus Herford (30.0 per kick return and 2 TD) and Raim Pendleton (12.1 per punt return and TD).

Virginia Tech (11-2, 8-1 ACC, #3 BCS) may have stumbled out of the gate with an unimpressive 17-7 home win over East Carolina and a crushing 7-48 loss at LSU but no team in the nation was excited about facing them the last 5 weeks when the ran off wins against Georgia Tech, Florida Sate, Miami, Virginia, and Boston College by an average of 19.8 points per contest. The Hokie offense is a balanced attack led by thrower 6â€™4â€ 225 junior QB Sean Glennon (130 of 207 for 1636 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT) and rusher 6â€™1â€ 220 freshman QB Tyrod Taylor (71 of 131 for 916 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT passing and 97 for 431 yards and 6 TD rushing). Glennon has made the last 6 starts but you will be sure to see plenty of both in Miami. For a crew that traditionally hasnâ€™t done much downfield, Coach Frank Beamer (156-82-2 in 21st year in Blacksburg) has some decent talent at wideout this year with 6â€™1â€ 220 senior Josh Morgan (43 for 522 and 5 TD), 6â€™4â€ 214 senior Justin Harper (37 for 571 and 4 TD), 5â€™10â€ 180 senior Eddie Royal (32 for 485 and 4 TD), and 5â€™11â€ 190 senior Josh Hyman (25 for 339 and TD) giving defenses plenty to thing about besides stacking the box against the Tech rush. The Hokie offensive line is huge at 6â€™4 Â½â€ and better than 320 pounds per man but have struggled all season both in pass protection (49 sacks allowed in 13 games) and run blocking (3.4 yards per rush). Frankly, the running back pair of 5â€™11â€ 205 junior Brandon Ore (244 for 876 and 8 TD) and 5â€™9â€ 205 sophomore Kenny Lewis Jr. (53 for 183 and 4 TD) are good enough to pile up big numbers but just have found little daylight, especially along the right side of 6â€™4â€ 310 sophomore RG Sergio Render and 6â€™5â€ 312 sophomore RT Ed Wang. By the numbers the Hokies have racked up 29.3 points of offense per game on 133.5 yards rushing and 198.8 yards passing per contest.

As sub-par as Virginia Tech has been at rushing the ball, Defensive Coordinator Bud Fosterâ€™s boys have been even better at stopping it. 6â€™5â€ 267 senior LDE Chris Ellis (49 T, 9 TFL, 8 Â½ S, INT), 6â€™2â€ 293 senior LDT Carlton Powell (36 T, 6 TFL, 2 Â½ S), 6â€™4â€ 290 senior RDT Barry Booker (43 T, 10 Â½ TFL, 4 S), and 6â€™2â€ 256 junior RDE Orion Martin (51 T, 8 Â½ TFL, 4 Â½ S) are brutal to run against up the middle, allowing just 86.0 yards per game on the ground at 2.8 yards per carry in 2007. Behind the front wall, senior backers 6â€™0â€ 238 Vince Hall (92 T, 6 Â½ TFL, 3 Â½ S, INT) and 6â€™2â€ 236 Xavier Adibi (108 T, 12 TFL, 3 S, 2 INT) are blazers to the ball, often capping off plays broken by the boys up front with highlight reel hits. As strong as the Virginia Tech font 7 has been, the defensive backfield, coached by â€™96 alum Torrian Gray, has been its equal with 207.3 pass yards allowed per game. Junior cornerbacks 5â€™10â€ 200 Brandon Flowers (79 T, 7 TFL) and 6â€™0â€ 203 Victor â€œMachoâ€ Harris (34 T) have each snagged 5 interceptions this season while Harris is credited with an astounding 11 pass breakups. Youâ€™ll see both these kids playing on Sundays. 43 sacks and 21 interceptions are big parts of why the Hokies have allowed just 15.5 points per game this campaign and since you askedâ€¦yes, the legendary Frank Beamer special teams units blocked 4 more kicks this year.

Free winner from Totals 4 U: Although the Jayhawks and the Hokies are left on the outside looking in at the National Championship, this may be the best match up of the season. The crews of Mark Mangino and Frank Beamer each play with all kinds of heart and intensity, plus when would you ever get to see these clubs face off outside of bowl play? We don't expect this one to be easy by any stretch, but we'll give the nod to the arm of Todd Reesing and against the offensive line of Tech. Take Kansas + 3 1/2 and enjoy the game!

posted by phantom

Jan. 3 2008 3:00pm
0 likes

Wild Bill 5 units Ohio State + 4

VSS 7.5% COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +5/-125

Gold Medal Club 5* Ohio State Money Line +155

Spylock 3 unit Ohio St

BIG AL Ohio St

The Lock Line (Reg. Play)Ohio St. +4

POINTWISE 9-20 so far RATING: 5 OHIO STATE 26 - Lsu 23

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS 25-6 so far RATING: 3★ OHIO ST (+) 23 LSU 20

ANDY ISKOE ( 10-21 SO FAR ) 5 Star Ohio State over LSU

MARC LAWRENCE (13-18) 10* Bowl GOY Ohio St

Jon Campbell from COVERS 17-13 so far Ohio State +4 Â½

Brandon Lang 15 Dime OHIO STATE

S. Spritzer CFB Bowl GOY OSU buckeyes

THE SPORTS REPORTER BEST BET OHIO STATE over LSU by 10

THEERODFATHER 75 UNITS OHIO STATE+4.5

Frank Rosenthal Comp BUCKEYES+4 SB

JEFFERSONSPORTS NCAA FOOTBALL EARLY RELEASE OHIO ST.+4

Psychic Sports Picks 4 units MAJOR Ohio State +4

SI Vegas Steam- Ohio st

Moneyline Plays Ohio State Buckeyes +150

LT Lock Ohio St +3'

POSTER FROM ANOTHER FORUM #1 43-14-1 so far 35* Ohio St +4.5

POSTER FROM ANOTHER FORUM #2 46-25 so far Triple Play Ohio State +4

Bob Balfe Ohio State +3.5 over LSU

NORTHCOAST TOP OPINION PLAY Ohio State

Maddux Sports 4 units Ohio State +4.5

(C&P) CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS OHIO ST +4

Winners Edge 2 units Ohio St. +5

WISE OWL SYNDICATE OHIO STATE +3.5

Brian Gabriele ProCappers Ohio St

Micheal Cannon 25 Ohio St

Bobby Bo 10* Ohio State +4

WAYNE ROOT Millionaire - Ohio St

Johnny Guild Ohio State Buckeyes +4

PPP GAVAZZI 1* ohio state

Vegas Runner Ohio State

Rockdeman Sports OHIO ST

Mike L. Ohio St +3.5

AAA Unit Value: 3(Heavy Hitter LSU -4

FERRINGO FOOTBALL 4.5-Unit LSU (-4)

Vegas Sports Informer 6 unit LSU -4

THE GOLD SHEET 13-18 so far LSU 31 - Ohio State 16

WINNING POINTS 13-15-1 so far L.S.U. over OHIO STATE by 9 (26-17)

EROCKMONEY 14-11 SO FAR(rank - 2nd) LSU by 1

VEGAS HOTSHEET ( 17-20 SO FAR) LSU -4

Mighty Quinn..(14-15 so far) LSU â€“ 4

Bryan Leonard (Covers experts) Bowl GOY LSU (-3.5)

Kodiak 15 Lsu -3 -130

Cappers Access LSU -4

Dotorepicks LSU

BRW Sports Advisors LSU -3.5 (-107)

SUNSHINE FORECAST (1 star) Louisiana State

GAMBLERS WORLD TIP OF THE DAY LSU Tigers

Larry Cook â€“ Procappers 10* BCS Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR LSU -3.5

Tim Trushel regular play lsu -3 (-20)

Black Magic Sports 5 Unit BEST BET LSU -3.5

ETHAN LAW OPINION SELECTION ON LSU -4

Brandon Lovell 20* NCAAF LSU -3.5 -120 (Buy the Half Point if necessary)

Ats Lock Club 4 units on LSU (-3 1/2) over Ohio State

Chris Jordan 100♦ LSU

Mr.A's LSU - 4Â½

Keith Martin Sports LSU -3.5

PPP GAVAZZI 3* ohio state under - first half only

Lenny Del Genio under

THE SPORTS MEMO 18-13 so far Under 50.5

Doc Sports 5 unit Ohio St/LSU under 49.5

Rockdeman Sports UNDER

VEGAS HOTSHEET comp UNDER 49Â½

Dr. Bob Strong Opinion Under (47 1/2)

Frank Rosenthal Comp UNDER 48 SB

Kodiak 15 Lsu under

MATT RIVERS â€“ Comp under

JAKE TIMLIN - Comp UNDER

Matt O'Shea- 3 dime Best bowl total of the year Under

Mike Rose OHIO STATE at LSU Under

BURNS blue chip under osu/lsu

POSTER FROM ANOTHER FORUM #2 46-25 so far Ohio State Under 48.5

NORTHCOAST TOP OPINION PLAY under

Maddux Sports 2 units Ohio State Under

ETHAN LAW PLAY 1* UNIT UNDER 48

PPP GAVAZZI 2* ohio state under

POSTER FROM ANOTHER FORUM#1 43-14-1 so far 15* Ohio St /LSU Over 47.5

Sports Gambling Hotline 4♦ OVER

System Picks LSU / Ohio State Over 47

RED ZONE OHIO STATE vs LSU OVER

ARMVIN SPORTS Over 47.5

Wild Bill 2 units Over 50 Ohio St-LSU

Chris Jordan 300♦ OVER Lsu/Ohio State

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:52pm
0 likes

PPP GAVAZZI

1* ohio state

2* ohio state under

3* ohio state under - first half only

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:53pm
0 likes

Brandon Lovell

Double Your Wager National Championship GOY

20* NCAAF LSU -3.5 -120 (Buy the Half Point if necessary)

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:54pm
0 likes

JEFFERSONSPORTS

4-2 yesterday

NCAA FOOTBALL EARLY RELEASE

OHIO ST.+4

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:55pm
0 likes

RED ZONE

OHIO STATE vs LSU OVER

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:55pm
0 likes

Marc Lawrence perfect angle pick is Ohio State.

Lenny D's total is the under.

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:55pm
0 likes

SUNSHINE FORECAST

Monday, January 7, 2008

Ohio State(+5?) vs. Louisiana State

Power Rating Projection:

Louisiana State 26 Ohio State 25

Statistical Projections

Ohio State 22

Rushing Yards: 164

Passing Yards: 153

Turnovers: 2 Louisiana State 19

Rushing Yards: 131

Passing Yards: 168

Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Louisiana State 33 Ohio State 17

Louisiana State (1 star)

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:56pm
0 likes

Ohio State:

12-1 ATS off an Under

10-2 ATS off a road game

LSU:1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

1-5 ATS off an ATS loss

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:56pm
0 likes

VSS bowl

2008 VSSWINS 7.5% COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR

2007-2008 BCS National Title Game Monday January 7th, 2008 8:05 PM ET

7.5% #491 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +5/-125 over LSU Tigers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:57pm
0 likes

BIG AL

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes plus the points over LSU, as the Bucks fall into 33-25 and 31-16 ATS systems of mine. But the reason I like Ohio State in this game comes down to coaching, and rushing offense/defense. From his days at Youngstown State to the present, there has not been a more successful Championship coach than Jim Tressel. He's been here before, and his decision-making is much better than Les Miles, who often acts like a riverboat gambler (recall his decision to throw into the end zone vs. Auburn, instead of kicking a game winning FG). I do like Bo Pelini, however, but the LSU defensive coordinator may have been a bit distracted these last few weeks since he's off to become Nebraska's head coach after this game. The Buckeyes completely shut down Michigan at the end of the season, and held the Wolves to 3 points (but that Michigan team put up 41 vs. the SEC's Florida Gators). Overall this season, Ohio State allowed just two rushing touchdowns (and those two scores came in games OSU won by a combined 39 points)! Just two rushing TDs?! That's mind-boggling. On the offensive side of the ball, OSU has RB Chris Wells, perhaps the best RB in the nation in the 2nd half of the season. Wells got 222 yards against Michigan, 221 vs. Michigan State, 169 vs. Wisconsin, 133 vs. Penn State, and 76 vs. Illinois (but OSU was playing from behind, and had to throw the ball). LSU has shown a tendency this year to give up a lot of rushing yards. It surrendered over 150 to Florida and Ole Miss, and 385 to Arkansas! With the spread being more than a field goal, we'll take the Buckeyes.

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:57pm
0 likes

Marc Lawrence 10* Bowl GOY

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10* Ohio State

Bought and paid for

Confirmed

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:57pm
0 likes

AAA

NCAAF: Ohio State Buckeyes at Louisiana State Fighting Tigers - LSU -4 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3

Game Date: 1/7/2008

Note: This line opened as high as LSU -5 and as expected, it has dropped down. I don't know where the line will go from here but what I have seen, with opinions from other handicappers and public betting, it might very well go down further. However, I will not take the chance at this key number and I will go ahead and get on the Tigers at the current level. I know that I have already said this. The Big Ten is way down this year and although Ohio State is a quality team, they certainly were last year as they played verses Florida and got their ass handed to them. Handicapping College Bowls is more than just about conference verses conference though and that is not the reason to play this game. One reason to play it is the obvious advantage that LSU will have playing in their backyard here in New Orleans. LSU has had 2 mishaps this year verses Kentucky and Arkansas and many will look at that as a reason to play against them. But the fact is, week in and week out, play in the SEC is taxing and going through this conference undefeated is just not reality. The Tigers will be ready for this one, and the long layoff will help them greatly as they get well from a lot of nagging injuries. One of those is to their QB Flynn, who is suffering from a shoulder injury but expected to play. The styles of play between the SEC and Big 10 are like night and day as their is simply much more team speed in the south and that is what did the Buckeyes in last year. Downfield throwing by Todd Boeckman is not going to be as easy as it has been with the Tigers putting extreme pressure on the QB and defensive backs that are bigger and quicker than anything that he has yet to see. Focus is another key in this game as the Tigers get to practically stay at home away from all of the media hype that happens in championship games. It is interesting to note that LSU employs a two-quarterback system of Matt Flynn, who threw for 2,233 yards, 17 touchdowns, and Ryan Perrilloux, who had 694 yards passing, eight TD's. That is much like what Florida did last year and very hard to prepare for. This LSU team is an offensive powerhouse, averaging 38.7 points, 12th-most in the nation. The Tigers topped the 40-point mark seven times in 2007 and defeated six ranked teams. Lest we forget that fact, some can only remember the losses. While the Ohio State offense has averaged 32 points per game, they have done the bulk of that verses Big 10 D's that are not up to snuff. The Buckeyes have more speed than anyone in the Big 10. They did last year as well. They played the Gators and were out-quicked. They will be in this game. They will also have to contend with Glenn Dorsey. Dorsey is the best D player in the country but was hampered by a sore knee late in the season. This guy is just simply bad news and for the first time in a long time, he will be near or at 100%. I am sure that Todd Boeckman will get to know him personally in this contest. LSU is the better team. They don't have a better record. They will when this game ends

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:57pm
0 likes

THE GOLD SHEET ( 13-18 )

*LSU 31 - Ohio State 16â€”

We donâ€™t really want to play â€œpile onâ€ Ohio State,

especially since itâ€™s really not warranted. Sure, maybe the Buckeyesâ€™ title

game credentials are a bit spotty, especially considering their soft nonconference

slate (was Jim Tressel interested in winning the MAC title, too?)

and questionable strength of this yearâ€™s Big Ten. Not to mention the fact that

the last time OSU faced an SEC foe, it was thoroughly outclassed by Florida in

last Januaryâ€™s mismatch of a national title game. But in a year in which so many

championship contenders slipped on more than one banana peel, the

Buckeyesâ€™ consistency must count for something. OSU stumbled just once

(Nov. 10 vs. Illinois), which was one fewer time than almost every other BCS

title game hopeful...including LSU. And for those whose memories are short,

weâ€™ll remind you that it wasnâ€™t long ago (five years, to be exact) when many

were also questioning OSUâ€™s title credentials against the Miami Hurricanes...a

night in which the 11Â½-point underdog Buckeyes scored a stunning 31-24

overtime win.

That OSU has a legit claim to a spot in this game, however, is not to suggest

the Buckeyes are going to win it. Especially since weâ€™re not sure the

matchups are any better vs. the Tigers than they were when OSU was

dominated by the Gators a year ago in Glendale.

Indeed, despite scoring 31 ppg, the Buckeye â€œOâ€ lacks the dimensions of

last yearâ€™s attack that featured Heisman Trophy-winning QB Troy Smith and

homerun threat WR/KR Ted Ginn, Jr. These Buckeyes simply donâ€™t spread the

field the same way, and lumbering 6-5 jr. QB Todd Boeckman, while efficient

enough (64.5% completions and 23 TDP), does not possess nearly the

playmaking ability of Smith a year ago. OSU was more likely to wear down the

opposition behind a physical OL and bruising 235-lb.soph RB Beanie Wells,

who thundered for 1463 YR. And the receiving targets, led by sure-handed jr.

WR Brian Robiskie (68 catches), are competent, if not flashy.

Thatâ€™s all fine and dandy vs. MAC foes and most Big Ten opponents. But will

the Buckeye offense that bullied Northwestern and Kent State work effectively

against LSU? We wouldnâ€™t count on it.

Much like last yearâ€™s battle against Florida, when OSU was overwhelmed by

the Gatorsâ€™ speed and athleticism, similar problems exist against the Tigers.

Especially since LSU has had over a month to heal some of its bumps and

bruises, specifically star DT Glenn Dorsey, who sources say has mostly

recovered from a sore knee and back and routinely occupied multiple blockers

even when less than 100% during the regular season. Moreover, d.c. Bo

Peliniâ€™s vaunted â€œpressâ€ coverage schemes that confused Tennesseeâ€™s Erik

Ainge in the SEC title game could similarly discombobulate Boeckman & Co.

Meanwhile, that extra time off after the SEC title game has also allowed the

LSU offense to get healthy, with sr. QB Matt Flynn (who missed the SEC

decider with a shoulder injury) expected to start, and elusive backup Ryan

Perrilloux (now with valuable big-game experience gained from that win over

the Vols) available as a nice change-of pace option. The speed of Perrilloux

and now-healthy wideouts such as NFL-bound Early Doucet should

effectively stretch the Buckeye stop unit that put the clamps on slower and

less-diversified attacks throughout the season, but was exposed as a bit slowfooted

by Illinois and mobile QB Juice Williams in that upset loss vs. the Illini.

Letâ€™s also not forget a couple of other intangibles, not the least of which is

the location of the game (New Orleans) in the Tigersâ€™ backyard, plus the fact

that a seasonâ€™s worth of distractions regarding LSU HC Les Milesâ€™ courtship

with alma mater Michigan is now history. And much like Florida a year ago,

the Tigers sure arenâ€™t going to blink at the prospect of facing OSU after a

steady diet of SEC competition.

(DNP...SR: Ohio State 1-0-1

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:58pm
0 likes

POINTWISE ( 9-20 )

For the 2nd time in the past 2 years, the Buckeyes of Ohio St are participants in

the national title game. A year ago, they were TD favorites over Florida, expected

to take it all, thereby completing a perfect season. But a funny thing

happened on the way to their coronation. As you can see, below, we have listed

the first 9 BCS title matches, along with the accompanying statistics. No, that's

not a typo. Just 8 FDs & 82 YDs for OSU, which entered last year's title match

as the unquestioned top team in the nation. Let's check out those title contests

Thus, for the 3rd time in 6 years, coveted placements in this game have been

OSU's reward for stellar campaigns. That win over Miami, by the way, came in

double overtime, with the Hurricanes entering as the unanimous #1 ranked team

in the nation. This season, the Buckeyes had to replace 13 starters, & were

placed in the #11 spot in the nation on our pre-season "Polls" column. But they

have been a force since the opening bell, with the nation taking notice following

their 33-14 road smothering (16-pt cover) of a potent Washington outfit, which

opened 2-0, including a 24-10 win over Boise (17Â½ pt cover) the previous week.

The departure of Smith, of course, left a gaping hole at QB, but Jr Boeckman

has been more than a pleasant surprise, finishing the season as the 13-ranked

passer in the nation (65%, 2,171 yds, 23/12). No, we aren't forgetting those 3

picks in OSU's shocking loss to Illinois (22-pt ATS loss), but he has assuredly

gotten the job done. Overland, Beanie Wells ranks 11th in the land (1,463 yds,

14 TDs). The Bucks' true worth may have come at Penn St, where the Lions

had simply destroyed all foes, including combined 91-33 pt, 82-47 FD, 728-203

RY edges over Iowa, Wisconsin, & Purdue. But the invading Bucks (-3) simply

routed the Nits, 37-17. At the season's end, anchored by Butkus winning LB

Laurinaitis, OSt ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, in total, passing, rushing, & scoring

"D". But they have been installed as a solid dog in this one, as their opponents,

the Bayou Bengals of LSU are just a couple of triple OT losses from standing at

13-0. The Tigers, much like the Buckeyes, are one of the top defensive teams

in the land, with DT Dorsey, their main man. Their oft-injured QB Flynn (55%)

has opened the door for Perrilloux, who is at a superb 69%, & went 20-of-30 for

243 yds in the Tigers' SEC title game win over Tennessee. Hester & Williams

have motored for a combined 1,475 yds (5.4 ypr), & 17 TDs. But note just 1

cover for LSU in its last 10 games. The dog is on a 6-2 run in Buckeye bowl

games, & has taken 4 of the last 5 BCS title games, on the field. Call the upset

PROPHECY: OHIO STATE 26 - Lsu 23 RATING: 5

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:58pm
0 likes

THE SPORTS MEMO ( 18-13)

Ohio State vs. LSU -4.5 O/U 50.5 Recommendation: Under

This game offers a lot of interesting counter arguments where each

side can be understood but only one side will be right. Whatâ€™s more

important here, the potential negative effect of Ohio Stateâ€™s 53-day

layoff before this one kicks off or the Buckeyeâ€™s potential focus and

desire to redeem themselves for last yearâ€™s National Championship

fiasco? Is picking the winner here as easy as saying LSU is the far

faster team from the far superior conference or is Ohio Stateâ€™s offense,

including quarterback Todd Boeckman and his trio of wide receivers,

vastly underrated? Is having head coach Les Miles back in

the fold a reason for LSU to be so hyped up that they just take the

field and blow OSU out or is Jim Tressel still one of the nationâ€™s best

big game coaches who will have his underdog team extremely well

prepared? Since you can take each of these valid arguments from

either side and apply them to fit whichever way you like, letâ€™s examine

some other aspects where advantages may exist. For the LSU side,

my belief is that its upper hand is contained in the semi-home field

edge supplied by the Louisiana Superdome venue and the ownership

of running-type quarterback Ryan Perilloux in their two-headed system.

Ohio Stateâ€™s fans will travel for this but with 72,000 seats, a majority

of the allegiance will go to LSU and at some point in this game

you have to figure it will rattle the Buckeyes at least somewhat. To go

with that, Illinoisâ€™ quarterback Juice Williams showed in his 16 carry,

70-yard effort against OSU, that these defensively sound Buckeyes

can be dented a bit by a multi-dimensional attack. While the Bayou

Bengals do not have as extensive a playbook as the Urban Meyer-led

Gators, who crushed Ohio State last year, they are still very diverse.

Speed, power, rushing, passing, drop back, roll out, inside, outside,

short or deep, LSUâ€™s 448 yards per game offense is adept at moving

the football and scoring any way possible. Ohio State is tremendous

at applying pressure in the backfield and statistically they own the

best pass defense in the land, so this will be a great matchup. Defensively,

the Tigers will be at full strength health wise and theyâ€™ll probably

look to intimidate Buckeyes â€œhard to flusterâ€ Boeckman. Stopping

running back Chris Wells and his 121.9 rushing yards per game

is imperative and the Bayou Bengals have the front seven to do that.

Ohio State prefers to go deep when they throw the football so LSU

would be best served to play a two deep style and keep everything

in front of them. OSU receivers Brian Robiskie, Brian Hartline and

freshman speedster Ray Small are all capable of explosive scoreboard

changing plays. Dynamite return men in OSUâ€™s Hartline (punt

returns) and LSUâ€™s Trindon Holliday (kickoff returns) are possible difference

makers as well. In the end, despite the amount of top-notch

talent on both sides of the ball, we expect Ohio State to come with

a much better effort than a year ago. We saw with both teams, in

their biggest games of the year (Michigan and Tennessee), hard hitting

affairs with tons of defensive intensity. Cases are available for

both sides in our opinion which is why we feel value in the Under.

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:58pm
0 likes

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS: ( 24-6 !!!!!!!!!!)-- OVER IN TULSA PENDING

The craziest season ever ends with the matchup that most expected on Nov 4th, the 1st time TY that

these 2 were ranked #1-2. Since then both have lost gms & won conf championships while others fell victim

to the upset bug. They have met twice previously with OSU holding a 1-0-1 SU & 2-0 ATS advantage. This

is OSUâ€™s 3rd title gm under Tressel (1-1 SU & ATS) while this is LSUâ€™s 2nd BCS Championship gm following

their â€˜03 upset of Okla under Saban. Tressel is 4-2 SU & ATS in bowls incl a 33-7 win over Milesâ€™ OkSt tm in

the â€˜04 Alamo Bowl. Miles is 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS in the post season incl 2-0 SU & ATS at LSU. Despite the

fact that Miles is a Michigan alum, he met with all of OSUâ€™s coaching staff last spring in a friendly exchange

of ideas. The Tigers are playing just 65 miles away from their campus in the Superdome where theyâ€™ve gone

3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS the L/5Y. OSU is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in the dome. LSU has played the tougher sked with 9

gms vs bowl eligible tms (7-2 SU & 2-5-2 ATS) outscoring them 36-24 and outgaining them 437-294. OSU

played 7 bowl eligible squads going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS outscoring them 31-14 and outgaining them 378-230.

OSU is 0-8 SU & ATS all-time vs the SEC in bowls. LSU is 1-2 SU & ATS in the post season vs the B10.

OSU is 11-3 ATS away the L/3Y (4-1 ATS TY). The Bucks have pulled upsets the L/3 times theyâ€™ve been

installed as dogs (1st time TY) while LSU was favored in every gm (4-7-2 TY). OSU has just 3 Sr starters

and 13 upperclassmen while LSU has 12 Srâ€™s among their 18 upperclassmen. OSU once again has 51 days

between gms which caused Tressel to change their entire post season routine while LSU has 37.

OSUâ€™s 2007 season unofficially began on Jan 8th when the favored Bucks were humiliated 41-14

by Florida in the BCS Title game. Tressel used that score as off-season motivation as it was the playersâ€™

access code to get into their conditioning sessions. A soft early sked allowed new starting QB Boeckman

to learn on the field. Boeckmanâ€™s confidence ebbed with the Penn St game where he hit 19-26 for 253

yds and 3 TDâ€™s and Lee Corso started comparing the 6â€™5â€ Jr to Tom Brady. Boeckman struggled in the

L/2 however tossing 3 costly intâ€™s in the loss to Illinois and being limited to two 2H passes after a shaky

1H in wet weather vs Mich. Tressel says that he throws the deep ball better than any Buck QB heâ€™s had

which opens the field for RB Beanie Wells. Wells shook off knee, ankle and hand injâ€™s to lead the Big

Ten in rushing during conf play. WRâ€™s Robiskie and Hartline both measure 6â€™3â€ and are perfect jump ball

targets. Broyles Award winner Heacockâ€™s D led the NCAA in total, scoring, and pass eff D. The Big Tenâ€™s

DL of the year was DE Gholston and its Defensive POY was Butkus winner Laurinaitis. OSU is #11 in our

pass eff D with Jenkins splitting time between CB & S. OSUâ€™s STâ€™s were UnTressel-like ranking #41 and

finishing the season #117 in KR avg, allâ€™g 2 KR TDâ€™s while 3 Pretorius FGâ€™s or xpâ€™s were blocked.

LSU began the season strong with a 48-7 domination of #9 VT, but then the injâ€™s started to pile up with

top WR Doucet (missed 4) & QB Flynn both missing the MT gm. After beginning the ssn on a 3-0 ATS run,

the Tigers went 1-7-2 ATS the L/10 and somehow won the SEC Champ gm despite playing without QB

Flynn and Lombardi/Outland/Lott winner DT Dorsey who wasnâ€™t 100% the rest of the year after a chop

block suffered in their last minute win over Aub. With Dorsey hobbled, they allâ€™d 26 ppg & 305 ypg the L/5

while only allâ€™g 15 ppg, 232 ypg in their 1st 8. Flynn threw 3 int vs Bama after taking a hit early in that gm,

and threw 2 the next wk vs LT. In all, LSU played 6 gms that were decided by 7 pts or less and ended up

losing two in 3 OTâ€™s (both when ranked #1). The good news for LSU is that the time off should give all the

injâ€™d players enough time to heal for the bowl. Overall LSU has the offensive edge (#14-33), but OSU has

a slight defensive edge (#1-5). LSUâ€™s normally strong STâ€™s finished #87 due to a subpar return gm, but

PK David set school single ssn & career records for FGâ€™s & pts.

One major distraction for LSU TY was the status of their coaches with Miles agonizing over rumors

that he was leaving for his alma-mater Michigan and DC Pelini being hired as Nebraskaâ€™s new HC. Miles

agreed to stay at LSU & Pelini is expected to coach the bowl. OSU will be looking for redemption after

LYâ€™s sluggish effort in the BCS Champ gm and the Bucks would love to quiet critics who say that the SEC

is vastly superior in the speed dept. Befitting this odd year, LSU is the first two loss team to make it to

the BCS title gm and despite being ranked #2 find themselves favored. The dog has won 5 out of the L/7

champ games. This will be won in the trenches so expect the Buckeyes defense and OL to come up big

and give OSU their second National Championship in the last 6 years.

FORECAST: OHIO ST (+) 23 LSU 20 RATING: 3★

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:59pm
0 likes

WINNING POINTS ( 13-15-1)

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP

(January 7 at New Orleans)

L.S.U. over OHIO STATE by 9 (26-17)

The first thing that the public did when this one hit the board was the play on

Ohio State, and we hear talk of â€œrevengeâ€ a lot in the reasoning, after the Buckeyes

were humiliated by Florida 41-14 in LYâ€™s BCS Title game. But while that sentiment

can sometimes having its place in handicapping, this game is not one of them. The

bottom line we see is an Ohio State team that is weaker than LYâ€™s squad facing an

opponent that by kickoff will be better than Florida was last January, while at the

same time one of the prime factors in LYâ€™s blowout is still in play â€“ the fact that

Jim Tressellâ€™s team has not played since November 17th, while L.S.U. was extending

its season two weeks deeper. That puts the favorite in a much better position to

play closer to their top level, and with the comfort of being right back on the same

field where they humbled Notre Dame 12 months ago by the same exact score that

Florida whipped Ohio State by (yes, 41-14), we may see a true champion in action.

The Tigers had a chance to be special all along, but injuries kept the passing game

and the defense from developing the way that they could, and a pair of painful

triple-overtime defeats were suffered along the way. Now everyone is healthy again,

particularly big-timers like Glenn Dorsey and Early Doucet, and QB Matt Flynn

is also fully healthy again, creating a nice one-two punch with Ryan Perrilloux. And

when healthy this defense is either the best in the nation, or the best east of the

Southern Cal campus. Ohio State does not boast any such strength. The Buckeyes

managed only 82 yards of total offense vs. Florida last January despite the presence

of Troy Smith, Anthony Gonzalez, Antonio Pittman and Ted Ginn Jr., and while

Todd Boeckman has done a solid job of managing games this season, where were

the challenges? The Big 10 was down this season, and the Ohio State non-conference

schedule included a pathetic series of home games vs. Youngstown State,

Akron and Kent. That hardly prepares them for the level of challenge that they are

going to face here, so for the second season in a row they go home without this coveted

trophy. L.S.U. 26-17.

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:59pm
0 likes

Bryan Leonard (Covers experts)

Bowl GOY

REASON FOR PICK: LSU (-3.5) over Ohio State

Having this game played so late in the season gives us a two fold edge for the Tigers. First off is one which is often talked about and that is the lack of a conference tournament in the Big 10. That means Ohio State hasnâ€™t played since November 17th while LSU played on December 1st against Tennessee. We saw last year what such a long layoff could do to a team and Ohio State falls into the same scenario again this season. The second edge is the so called hype edge. Before the bowl parings were finalized everyone couldnâ€™t wait to bet against this overrated Buckeyes squad. Once it was known that they would oppose LSU everyone we talked to here in Las Vegas assumed the line would be 7 points. Well the line opened at LSU favored by 6 and all the money has since come in on the Buckeyes. Face it, we all love to root for the underdog and there have been plenty of feel good stories about this Ohio State team. A common theme is that last year was an anomaly and they wonâ€™t make the same mistakes again. But the truth is that last yearâ€™s Ohio State team was much better than this yearâ€™s version. Sure the 2007 version has the better defense but offensively this team isnâ€™t even close to the talent they had on hand a year ago.

One of our favorite handicapping angles during bowl season is to play on a team who is playing in their home state. Itâ€™s been a long time winner and this year once again it has provided a nice 3-2 60% payback. Teams simply are more comfortable playing near their home and the LSU Tigers are very familiar with the Superdome. The Tigers were the preseason favorite along with USC to win the national title. But injuries hurt both those teams as the season progressed. But now LSU is as healthy as they have been all season, and we have already seen what USC has done when getting their injured back in the lineup.

We give the Ohio State defense a slight edge in this match-up as LSU also brings to the table an excellent defense. But offensively the Tigers are much better. The dual threat behind center should really give the buckeyes fits. Hey buckeyes fans remember Juice Williams? While Ohio State enters this game as the underdog itâ€™s LSU that has more to prove. All season long they were thought of as an underachieving group. Now in their own backyard they can prove their worth.

PLAY LSU

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 4:59pm
0 likes

Dr. Bob

I have a Strong Opinion on the Under (47 1/2) in the BCS Championship game and no opinion on the side.

BCS Championship Game

LSU (-3.5) 21 Ohio St. 17

05:00 PM Pacific, 07-Jan-08

Itâ€™s pretty well known that Ohio State is 0-9 lifetime in bowl games against SEC teams, including last yearâ€™s humiliating loss to Florida in the BCS Championship game, but that really doesnâ€™t mean much to me. The SEC is perceived to be a much better conference than the Big 10 in recent years, but Big 10 teams are actually 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS against SEC teams in bowl games the last 4 years (1-1 this year with Wisconsin losing to Tennessee and Michigan beating up on Florida). The fact that Michigan beat Florida despite being -4 in turnover margin is an indication that the difference between the quality of the Big 10 and the SEC isnâ€™t as much as it is perceived to be. So, forget about the hype of the SEC being a dominant conference and focus on the teams. My math model adjusts for strength of opponents, which is affected by the strength of the conference a team plays in and the math on this game reveals that Ohio State was no worse than LSU this season.

The question is whether Ohio State can compete with LSU in this game, as the Tigers are healthier on defense and at the receiver position than they were for parts of the regular season. LSUâ€™s offense was very inconsistent this season, playing 4 games in which they averaged less than 5.0 yards per play and having 4 games in which they averaged 7.0 yppl or more. Overall the Tigers averaged 6.1 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. The rushing attack was outstanding, averaging 236 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp), but quarterback Matt Flynn was mediocre. Flynn averaged only 5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and the Tigers appear to be a better team when Ryan Perrilloux is at quarterback. Perrilloux averaged 8.4 yppp on 79 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp) and that includes 7.6 yppp in the SEC Championship game against Tennessee when Flynn was injured (Tennessee would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team). Flynn was hindered a bit by early season injuries to the receivers Demetrius Byrd and Early Doucet, as Byrd missed games 1 and 4 and Doucet was out for 5 games from game 3 through 7. Flynnâ€™s numbers were better from game 8 on when his entire receiving corps was intact, as Flynn averaged 6.5 yppp his final 5 games against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB. Iâ€™ll assume thatâ€™s the level Flynn will play in this game and that Perrilloux probably wonâ€™t see much time, unless the Tigers need him near the goal line for a running option. Overall the Tigers rate at 1.0 yppl better than average on offense heading into this game.

Ohio Stateâ€™s defense rates at 1.9 yppl better than average, yielding just 3.6 yppl for the season against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Ohio State completely shut down every better than average pass attack that they faced this season, and only Illinois averaged more than 5.0 yppp against the Buckeyes. The reason that the Illini managed to average 6.0 yppp was because they couldnâ€™t sack the mobile Juice Williams (Williams averaged only 6.4 yards per pass attempt but was sacked just once). Matt Flynn is not that mobile, so he wonâ€™t be able to buy time to find open receivers and there wonâ€™t be too many open receivers for Flynn to find. Flynn had mixed results against the good pass defenses heâ€™s faced this year, averaging 8.8 yppp against Virginia Tech and 8.1 yppp against Auburn, but managing just 3.0 yppp against South Carolina and 3.2 yppp against Kentucky. Ohio Stateâ€™s pass defense is so much better than any team that LSU faced this year (the Buckeyes allowed just 3.6 yppp to teams that would average 6.2 yppp), but Flynn is capable of posting decent numbers and is also potentially going to be horrible. LSUâ€™s offensive production will probably depend on their ability to run against an Ohio State defense that gave up just 3.6 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average defense). Ohio State played two teams that are very good running teams and the Buckeyes gave up a combined 5.1 yprp to Washington and Illinois (who would combine to average 6.1 yprp), so they were only 1.0 yprp better than average against good running teams. Those numbers are misleading, however, as Washington and Illinois both have running quarterbacks that got a lot of those yards. Ohio State held All-Big 10 back Rashard Mendenhall to just 88 yards on 26 carries (3.4 ypr) and held Washington star Louis Rankin to 42 yards on 14 carries as quarterback Jake Locker scrambled for 107 yards on 13 rushes. Flynn is a decent runner, but certainly not in the class of Williams and Locker, so donâ€™t imply that Ohio Stateâ€™s relative troubles with Washington and Illinois apply to LSUâ€™s good rushing attack. LSU may actually run for less than expected in this game given that the Tigers, who are 1.3 yprp better than average overall, were only 0.9 yprp better than average against the 7 better than average run defenses that they faced (5.2 yprp against Miss State, Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee â€“ who would combine to allow 4.3 yprp to an average team). Ohio Stateâ€™s defense is 0.9 yppl better than LSUâ€™s offense and my math model projects just 303 yards at 4.5 yppl for the Tigers in this game.

The key to this game is how well LSUâ€™s defense plays. The Tigers were a dominating unit for most of the season, but star DT Glenn Dorsey (the college defensive player of the year) was banged up late in the season and LB Barry Beckwith missed a couple of games late in the season. LSUâ€™s defense was noticeably weaker in their final 3 games, giving up a combined 6.4 yppl to Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee. Reports are that the Tigers are fully healthy on defense and will be back to their dominating form for this game. LSU was 1.2 yppl better than average defensively for the season (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), but the Tigers were 1.6 yppl better than average in their first 10 games and Iâ€™ll assume that they will be that good in this game. If that is the case then the Tigers have a 1.3 yppl advantage over an Ohio State offense that was just 0.3 yppl better than average with Todd Boeckman at quarterback. Ohio State was 0.6 yppl better than average against the 3 good defensive teams that they faced (5.3 yppl against Penn State, Illinois, and Michigan, who would allow 4.7 yppl to an average team). However, the Buckeyes averaged only 4.0 yppl against Michigan, who was the best defensive team that they faced this season. Ohio State should have an even tougher time moving the ball against LSUâ€™s defense and my math model projects just 274 yards at 4.1 yppl is the Tigers defense is indeed as good as it was in their first 10 games (which Iâ€™m assuming it is). Boeckman is also a bit turnover prone (12 interceptions in just 273 passes, 4.4%) and the math model projects a 5.3% interception rate for Boeckman in this game, so the Buckeyes could be in trouble if they get down by a couple of scores and are forced to throw more than normal against LSUâ€™s attacking defense.

Overall, my math model favored LSU by just Â½ a point using stats for each team for the entire season (with 2 points being give to LSU for playing in Tiger-friendly New Orleans), but that projection changes after adjusting Flynnâ€™s stats for games in which he had all his receivers and using only LSUâ€™s first 10 games on defense. I now have LSU by 4 points with a total of just 38 Â½ points, as it is pretty clear that the defenses have big advantages in this game and scoring will not be easy (unless there are some defensive touchdowns). Underdogs of 3 points or more are 6-2 straight up in BCS Championship games, including Ohio Stateâ€™s 31-24 upset of Miami-Florida as a 12 point dog in 2003. The Buckeyes will certainly be motivated after hearing how they canâ€™t compete with an SEC team for the past 6 weeks and Ohio State is better equipped to compete this season given that theyâ€™re defense is the best in the nation this year after being a very young group last season. Remember, the Buckeyesâ€™ defense was 0.3 yppl better than LSUâ€™s defense was when it was healthy. I can see both teams winning this game and my math model suggests that there is no value in betting the side in this game. The better play is on the under given that both defenses have significant advantages and I will consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion in this game at 45 points or higher and I have no opinion on the side.

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 5:00pm
0 likes

Brandon Lang

MONDAY

15 Dime OHIO STATE

NOTE: I live for moments like this. Flat out live for them.

Hitting championship games is what separates the men from the boys. It's exactly what has separated me from everybody else my entire career.

I really think 8 in a row speak for itself. I really do.

Even better, hit this game tonight and it's a 3rd straight winning week.

So as you can see, a lot on the line tonight.

If you are reading this right now then you obviously made a wise choice. I love the fact you have made me your go to guy with this championship game tonight.

I boast being the best big game handicapper in the world and tonight is another chance to show that world why.

I am as confident as I have ever been that my championship streak will hit #9 in a row tonight after Ohio St gets the cover.

So without further hesitation or delay, here is why Ohio St covers the number tonight in with my 9th straight Championship winner.

OHIO STATE - I have no problem going to war with the Ohio St Buckeyes tonight.

First and foremost, they have the #1 scoring defense as well as the #1 overall defense in all of College football.

A defense that went into Michigan and held the Wolverines to 3 points and 99 yards total offense for the entire game.

Yes people, the same Michigan team that put up 41 points and close to 600 yards total offense against SEC opponent the Florida Gators.

The first mistake people are making with this game is putting to much into the Buckeyes 0-8 run versus the SEC.

In those 8 battles, they never had the best defense in all of college football in which to go to war with.

The second mistake people are making is they are putting to much into Ohio States only mistake of the year in losing to Illinois at home.

Throw that game out in handicapping this game here because Lsu offensively isn't Illinois or for that matter Florida, the only other team to beat Ohio St in 2 years

Those two teams are a spread offense attack, something Lsu isn't. This Ohio St defense matches up very well with this Lsu offense as well as they have anybody all year.

The last mistake they are making is the fact this Lsu team isn't as good as the world is making them out to be.

I mean, this is an Lsu team that trailed in 6 of their games this year with less than 3 minutes to go.

Florida let them off the hook. Alabama let them off the hook. Auburn let them off the hook.

Arkansas went into Lsu and beat them, the same Arkansas team that was destroyed 38-7 in their bowl game by Missouri.

This is an Lsu team that shouldn't have won the SEC championship game versus Tennessee but a couple of bad throws by Ainge of the Vols gave Lsu the win.

A lot of people in the SEC felt the best team in that conference was the Georgia Bulldogs but by almost default, Lsu is here.

Lastly, this is an Lsu team that finished the year on a 1-7-2 ATS. You can call it bad lines or bad football but the fact of the matter is I just don't think this team is that good.

Another area in which the Buckeyes have a tremendous advantage is coaching. Tressel is twice the game coach as Les Miles.

With all this time to prepare and the fact Tressel is a dog, makes the Buckeyes that much more dangerous.

In my opinion, this game comes down to the matchup of the Ohio St running game versus the Lsu 13th ranked rush defense.

Wells is a monster for the Buckeyes and I fully expect him to have a solid game here tonight.

Ohio St was fantastic away from home this year crushing Washington by 19, Minnesota by 23, Purdue by 16, Penn St by 20 and the aforementioned Michigan by 11.

Check out that Penn St win. People, that was the 11th best defense in the country and the 7th best run defense and Ohio St rolled them.

Last year Ohio St was the favorite and they got caught with being over confident and not taking Florida seriously.

That is not going to happen tonight. They are the dog and a live dog at that.

Big ten Michigan beat SEC Florida. Big Ten Wisconsin held it's own against SEC Tennessee. Ohio St will own it's own against Lsu tonight and then some.

Defense wins championships people and it wouldn't surprise me if this Buckeyes team wins this game outright.

9th straight Championship Winner - Ohio St

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 5:00pm
0 likes

. spritzer's cfb bowl goy

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

osu buckeyes

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 5:00pm
0 likes

PHANTOM ARE THESE CAPPERS WRITING A NOVEL BRO ROCK AND ROLL TIME HAWAII GL

posted by takis28

Jan. 7 2008 5:00pm
0 likes

"phantom":37c192mu
Brandon Lang

MONDAY

15 Dime OHIO STATE

NOTE: I live for moments like this. Flat out live for them.

Hitting championship games is what separates the men from the boys. It's exactly what has separated me from everybody else my entire career.

I really think 8 in a row speak for itself. I really do.

Even better, hit this game tonight and it's a 3rd straight winning week.

So as you can see, a lot on the line tonight.

If you are reading this right now then you obviously made a wise choice. I love the fact you have made me your go to guy with this championship game tonight.

I boast being the best big game handicapper in the world and tonight is another chance to show that world why.

I am as confident as I have ever been that my championship streak will hit #9 in a row tonight after Ohio St gets the cover.

So without further hesitation or delay, here is why Ohio St covers the number tonight in with my 9th straight Championship winner.

OHIO STATE - I have no problem going to war with the Ohio St Buckeyes tonight.

First and foremost, they have the #1 scoring defense as well as the #1 overall defense in all of College football.

A defense that went into Michigan and held the Wolverines to 3 points and 99 yards total offense for the entire game.

Yes people, the same Michigan team that put up 41 points and close to 600 yards total offense against SEC opponent the Florida Gators.

The first mistake people are making with this game is putting to much into the Buckeyes 0-8 run versus the SEC.

In those 8 battles, they never had the best defense in all of college football in which to go to war with.

The second mistake people are making is they are putting to much into Ohio States only mistake of the year in losing to Illinois at home.

Throw that game out in handicapping this game here because Lsu offensively isn't Illinois or for that matter Florida, the only other team to beat Ohio St in 2 years

Those two teams are a spread offense attack, something Lsu isn't. This Ohio St defense matches up very well with this Lsu offense as well as they have anybody all year.

The last mistake they are making is the fact this Lsu team isn't as good as the world is making them out to be.

I mean, this is an Lsu team that trailed in 6 of their games this year with less than 3 minutes to go.

Florida let them off the hook. Alabama let them off the hook. Auburn let them off the hook.

Arkansas went into Lsu and beat them, the same Arkansas team that was destroyed 38-7 in their bowl game by Missouri.

This is an Lsu team that shouldn't have won the SEC championship game versus Tennessee but a couple of bad throws by Ainge of the Vols gave Lsu the win.

A lot of people in the SEC felt the best team in that conference was the Georgia Bulldogs but by almost default, Lsu is here.

Lastly, this is an Lsu team that finished the year on a 1-7-2 ATS. You can call it bad lines or bad football but the fact of the matter is I just don't think this team is that good.

Another area in which the Buckeyes have a tremendous advantage is coaching. Tressel is twice the game coach as Les Miles.

With all this time to prepare and the fact Tressel is a dog, makes the Buckeyes that much more dangerous.

In my opinion, this game comes down to the matchup of the Ohio St running game versus the Lsu 13th ranked rush defense.

Wells is a monster for the Buckeyes and I fully expect him to have a solid game here tonight.

Ohio St was fantastic away from home this year crushing Washington by 19, Minnesota by 23, Purdue by 16, Penn St by 20 and the aforementioned Michigan by 11.

Check out that Penn St win. People, that was the 11th best defense in the country and the 7th best run defense and Ohio St rolled them.

Last year Ohio St was the favorite and they got caught with being over confident and not taking Florida seriously.

That is not going to happen tonight. They are the dog and a live dog at that.

Big ten Michigan beat SEC Florida. Big Ten Wisconsin held it's own against SEC Tennessee. Ohio St will own it's own against Lsu tonight and then some.

Defense wins championships people and it wouldn't surprise me if this Buckeyes team wins this game outright.

9th straight Championship Winner - Ohio St

posted by takis28

Jan. 7 2008 5:01pm
0 likes

Malinsky

6* Ohio St

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 5:05pm
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Mike Volpe

BCS Championship BowlJanuary 7, 20088 PM ET Ohio State Buckeyes (O/U 50.5) versus LSU Tigers -6

LSU being in this game puzzles me, LSU being favored by six points in this game STUNS me. The Tigers have dropped three straight games versus the number andeight of their last ten as favorites. I do not know about you but betting on a team that is covering 20% of their games is not too appealing a choice. Yes the Buckeyes stumbled against Illinois but OSU has lost just that one game and covered 80% of their games. Hmmmm 20% 0r 80%????? Iâ€™ll take 80%!!!!

Play 5* on the Ohio State Buckeyes +6

Bonus Play 3* play on the UNDER

__________________

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 5:05pm
0 likes

"Takis28":24qf4xh2
PHANTOM ARE THESE CAPPERS WRITING A NOVEL BRO ROCK AND ROLL TIME HAWAII GL

LOOKS like svcs leaning on Ohio St....woof Woof!!!!

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 5:06pm
0 likes

Wolkosky Milan

394-302-15 last one hundred thirty four days

64-33-2 last sixteen days!

7-2 Saturday!

5-1 Yesterday (2-1 NFL, 1-0 CFB, 2-0 NBA)

Today:

10* LSU -3Â½

10* OSU/LSU OVER 47

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 5:06pm
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Sebastian

200* Ohio St. (+4)

He reduced the play from 300*.

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 6:04pm
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Analyst: JASON BELL

20,000 National Championship Lock

ONE AND ONLY 20,000*

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP LOCK

LSU Tigers

In a battle of two exceptional defenses, I trust Matt Flynn and Ryan Perriloux over Todd Boeckman, who I have never really heard anything about, positive or negative. This guy plays on the #1 team in the nation and I've never seen a highlight of his, a game that he put up ridiculous numbers, nothing. In the world of Sportscenter, I've never seen this guy featured on anything.

The only games LSU lost this year were in triple overtime to Kentucky and when McFadden went ridiculous. They are clearly the best team in the country, and will prove it tonight. Ranked outside of the top 10 by the AP and picked to finish third in its own conference, Ohio State was not projected to be anything special this year and there is a reason. They are not that good and they are certainly not better then LSU.

LSU plays in the SEC folks, Ohio state plays in the Big 10 and just take a look at what these teams have done in Bowl Games this year. SEC is now 6-2. Big 10 is now 2-5 with Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State all going down.

Fact, the SEC has better players and more go to the NFL.

Fact, SEC has buried Big 10 in Bowl Games over the past three years.

Fact, the SEC plays faster, quicker teams all year long and tought schedule.

The keys today for LSU are as follows - their ability to throw on anyone they choose and their ability to stop the run. Flynn and Perriloux should be able to throw on the Buckeyes at will tonight. Remember, if it is Perrlioux, the Buckeyes had trouble containing a very similar QB in the Illini's Juice Williams. Secondly, Glenn Dorsey, who is arguably going to be the #1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft, clogs the middle and gets serious run up the field.

The Tigers have covered five of seven bowl games, while the Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the SEC. The Tigers will sustain the Buckeyes opening emotion and pull away in the second half.

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 6:04pm
0 likes

Pointwise Phone

3* Ohio St.

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 6:04pm
0 likes

Here are the stats from sportsinsights, the odds service. LSU 58%, OHIO ST 42%, OVER 58%, 42%UNDER, Here is the analysis from the info. 58% of the bettors are on LSU, but the line has gone from 6 to 3', and 58% is on the over yet the total has gone from 51' to 47. Smart money/sharps on ohio st and under

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 6:05pm
0 likes

Here are the stats from sportsinsights, the odds service. LSU 58%, OHIO ST 42%, OVER 58%, 42%UNDER, Here is the analysis from the info. 58% of the bettors are on LSU, but the line has gone from 6 to 3', and 58% is on the over yet the total has gone from 51' to 47. Smart money/sharps on ohio st and under

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 6:07pm
0 likes

L. Ness' weekly wipeout winner - cfb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LSU

Ohio St is back for another try in the BCS title game, after getting blown out by Florida last year, 41-14. Once again the Buckeyes come in as the nation's No. 1 ranked team and once again they will face an SEC team (LSU). The big difference though, is that unlike LY when Ohio St was the solid favorite (minus-7 1/2), this time around the Buckeyes are the underdogs. However, one wouldn't know it by the "line movement," as LSU opened a six-point favorite but seemingly ALL of the money has come in on Ohio St! I DON'T understand it? This year's Ohio State is NOT as good as last year's team, as Troy Smith was a much more athletic and dangerous player than this year's starting QB, Todd Boeckman. While Boeckman had a surprisingly good year, he's got little mobility in the pocket and has nowhere near the playmaking ability of Smith. Also note that in his last two games (Illinois and Michigan), he passed for a total of just 206 yards with an 0-4 ratio. He also doesn't have the one-two punch Smith had in WRs Ginn and Gonzalez. While Beanie Wells (1,463) had a great season at RB, he's surely no better than Antonio Pittman. One could make the case that Ohio' St's D is better this year, as it ranks No. 1 in both scoring (10.7 PPG) and total yards (225.3) but then again, one must consider the competition. The Big 10 was CLEARLY down TY (only Michigan has played well in the bowls) and Ohio St's non-conference schedule consisted of Youngstown St (Div I-AA), Akron (4-8), Kent St (3-9) and Washington, which lost NINE of its last 11! Now to LSU. Many think this is the nation's most talented team overall but in fairness, the Tigers did lose to both Kentucky and Arkansas, teams which finished with a collective 10 losses! Granted, both came in triple-OT but the Tigers LOST just the same! However, LSU played NINE bowl-eligible teams TY, yet its defense finished ranked third in the nation YPG, allowing just 283.9. The rush D allowed 103.1 YPG (3.1) and with DT Dorsey back at 100% (that's the claim), the pass rush (32 sacks) should be fearsome. LSU's pass D allowed just 46.4% completions and came up with 21 INTs. Just like LY, Ohio St's offense will NOT be able to cope with LSU's defensive speed, quickness to the ball and overall athleticism! While OSU has a great D itself and has plenty of athletes, the LSU offense has been helped by the layoff, giving underrated QB Matt Flynn time to get healthy. Also don't discount backup Perrilloux's ability to bring a "different look" when he's used at QB. Hester (1,017 / 5.0) leads a running game which averages 218.9 YPG (5.1) and has scored 34 TDs, while the WRs are "better than their numbers," especially with Doucet now healthy. Les Miles has led LSU to two DOMINATING bowl wins since coming to Baton Rogue, beating No. 9 Miami 40-3 in the Peach Bowl two years ago and trashing ND 41-14 in LY's Sugar Bowl. Playing in New Orleans is basically a "home" game for the Tigers and while I don't expect Ohio St to lose by fours TDs (like LY), a two-TD margin seems about right. Weekly Wipeout Winner on LSU

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 6:07pm
0 likes

spritzer--

bowl goy.................ohiost

tko.....................cal full,butler

5 star hammer gow.................gold st

cokin--

Fat man releases.......ohio st under 47.5,n texas

bowl goy....................ohio st

window.......................cal full

under the hat..............butler

3 star action................n texas

feist--

platinum.................ohio st

inner circle.....................san jose st

5 star executive.................north tex

total......................suns over

inner circle...............gold st

5 star executive..........nuggets

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 6:08pm
0 likes

Tally

OSU-54

LSU-27

Over-8

Under-21

This reminds me of Tampa yesterday.

This is yesterdays Tampa. We know what happened there.

NY Giants 20

Tampa Bay 54

Over 8

Under 14

Here was Oklahoma's. This is just food for thought.

TALLY:

Oklahoma: 43

WVU: 24

over: 4

under: 7

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 6:43pm
0 likes

1. Ats 6t 4-lsu

2. Bankers 2t 300-ohio St

3. Ben Burns Under

4. Big Money 2t Lsu

5. Blazer 4-oh St

6. Carolina Sports 4-oh St, Op: Under

7. Doc Enterprises 5-under

8. Dr. Bob Op: Under

9. Gameday Op: Oh St

10. Inside Info 2t 2-ohio St

11. Joe D 6t 15-oh St

12. Lenny Stevens 20-oh St

13. Lt Profits 6t 2-oh St

14. Nationwide (goldst) Reg: Lsu

15. Neri 3-oh St Under

16. Northcoast Op: Ohio St & Under

17. Pointwise 6t 3-ohio St

18. Preferred Picks 10-ohio St

19. Private Players 3-oh St Under In 1st Half, 2-ohio St Under, 1-oh St

20. Score 300-lsu

21. Underdog 2t Pass

22. Pure Lock Pass

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 7:47pm
0 likes

SERVICE REPORT

ATS Lock Club..................4*LSU

Brandon Lang...................15*Ohio State

Dave Cokin.......................Bowl Gane Of The Year: Ohio State

David Malinksy..................6*LSU

Director Sports..................Ohio State

"Doc..................................5*OSU/LSU(U)

Doctor Bob........................Opinion: OSU/LSU(U)

Frank Magliosa.................OSU/LSU(U)

Gold Sheet........................Regular: LSU

JB Sports..........................2*Ohio State

.........................................1*OSU/LSU(U)

Jim Feist...........................Platinum: Ohio State

Joe Gavazzi(PPP).............2*OSU/LSU(U)

.........................................1*Ohio State

Kelso Sturgeon.................30*LSU

Las Vegas Sports..............10*LSU

Lenny Stevens..................Bowl Game Of The Year: Ohio State

LT Profits..........................2*Ohio State

Marc Lawrence.................Bowl Game Of The Year: Ohio State

Mike Warren.....................Platinum: OSU/LSU(U)

Northcoast.........................2*Ohio State & OSU/LSU(U)

Randy Radtke...................Ohio State

Reed Harris.......................OSU/LSU(U)

Rocketman........................1*LSU

SCORE..............................300*LSU

Sebastian..........................200*LSU

Sports Authority................LSU

Sports Bank......................Bowl Game Of The Year: LSU

Sports Doctor...................Bowl Game Of The Year: LSU

Sports Unlimited...............5*LSU

Texas Sports Brokers.......Bowl Game Of The Year: Ohio State

Tony Diamond..................5*LSU

Underdog Sportsline........Ohio State

Wayne Root......................Millionaire: Ohio State

.........................................10*OSU/LSU(O)

Windy City Sports.............10*LSU

Winners Path....................LSU

posted by phantom

Jan. 7 2008 7:58pm
0 likes

GREAT WORK PHANTOM MONEY TIKI WORKED AGAIN ON ALL MY PLAYS TONIGHT SPECIALLY ON TIGERS BROTHER BUCKEYES 0-9 IN SEC GAMES HAVE A GR8 DAY AND THXS FOR YOUR HARD WORK ALOHA/YIASOU

posted by takis28

Jan. 8 2008 12:30am

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