NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS: ( 16-4 !!!!!!!!!!)
These two met once in the ‘81 Garden State Bowl which UT won 28-21. The Vols make a return
visit to Tampa where they are 1-1 SU & ATS in their history including LY’s 20-10 upset loss to Penn
St (-4’). The Badgers make their 4th appearance in this game (1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS). The last time they
visited Tampa in ‘04 they hung tough with favored Georgia but lost 24-21 (+8). The bowl committee
snapped up UW nearly a week before all the other bowl invites were handed out because of their fans’
fine reputation as travellers. Fulmer is 3-2 SU & ATS vs the Big Ten in bowls (7-7 SU & ATS overall).
UW has pulled 2 straight upsets of ranked SEC teams in NY’s Day bowls to bring their record up to
2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS vs the league in bowls (LY’s win under Bielema). UT has played a tougher schedule
(#20-46) taking on 10 bowl eligible teams (6-4 SU & 5-3-2 ATS) to UW’s 7 (4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS), but UT
was outgained 429-385 while UW outgained bowl foes 400-370. Both struggled on the road TY with
UT 2-4 SU & 2-3-1 ATS while UW was 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS! UW has 5 senior starters & UT has 7. UW is
1-3 ATS as a dog TY & UT is 6-1 ATS as an AF S/’05. UW finished their season Nov 17 while UT last
played on Dec 1 but the extra rest has not affected this Big Ten team the L/2Y.
UW came into ‘07 with expectations to not only win their 1st Big Ten Title S/‘99 but also to compete for
their first-ever Nat’l Title as they opened the yr at #7. QB Donovan was 1 of just 2 new starters on off but
inj’s hampered the unit all ssn. TE Crooks, WR’s Swan and Hubbard, RB Hill and RG Kemp were among
the starters who missed multiple gms. The Badgers, who never quite looked like the tm that finished 12-1
in Bielema’s debut season, won their 1st 5 gms to climb into the Top 5 before losing to an unranked yet
favored Illinois tm. Donovan’s efficiency was hampered by the banged up rec corps which by the Penn
St gm saw the Badgers starting 2 true Fr WR’s. Eventually Hubbard returned for the L/5 gms to provide
the offense with a big play threat. The off MVP was John Mackey finalist Beckum who led the NCAA’s
TE in rec ypg and was #2 in rec per game. RB depth was a season long problem as #2 TB Smith was
suspended for all road games (is elig for bowl). When Hill was injured vs Indiana the staff was forced
to turn to true frosh Brown and he finished with 421 yds (5.5) in the L/3. UW returned 5 of their front 7
but were disappointing as they surrendered 73 more pass ypg & 13 extra TD passes than in ‘06. The S
play was erratic as well as CB Ikegwuonu’s play slipped (1st tm All-Big Ten in ‘06). The Badgers will be
without DT Chapman (knee), CB Langford (knee) and possibly Hill (leg) for the bowl.
UT’s roller coaster ssn started with a 1-2 record with blowout losses to Cal & rival UF and fans were
calling for Fulmer’s head. A blowout win over rival UGA quieted the fans until 2 wks later when the Vols
were blown out by rival Bama. Prior to the Ark gm, 191 former UT players including Peyton Manning took
out a full page ad supporting Fulmer, and UT finished the reg ssn with 5 str wins clinching a spot in the
SEC Champ gm. UT’s offense (#32) is led by Sr QB Ainge who lost his top 3 rec’s from ‘06, but still topped
LY’s ydg & threw 10 more TD. Taylor became Ainge’s go-to guy finishing #3 in the SEC in rec pg despite
being less than 100% in several gms. RB Foster turned in a career best ssn with five 100+ rush gms. UT’s
OL has been outstanding allowing just 4 sks in 491 pass atts (0.8%) which is #1 in the NCAA. DC Chavis
has built outstanding defenses here, but TY was an exception. UT finished #46 in overall D, but #76 in our
pass eff D rankings with 3 CB’s lost to inj & dismissal since April ‘07. Undersized FS Hefney (2nd Tm SEC
‘06) had a disappointing beginning of the yr, but true frosh SS Berry emerged as a star setting a UT record
with 222 int ret yds TY. Overall UT was outscored 29.7-28.6 and outgained 415-372 in SEC play TY but
their bend-but-don’t-break defense allowed just 20 ppg in regulation the L/6 (32 ppg 1st 7).
UT has had an all-or-nothing approach to the bowls the last few yrs with huge blowout wins over
TX A&M in ‘04 & Michigan in ‘01, but blowout losses to Clem & Maryland in B2B Peach Bowls in ‘02
& ‘03. The Vols finished with a loss in the SEC Championship but had a successful 9 win season with
a New Year’s Day bowl bid. Highly respected UT OC Cutcliffe was named HC of Duke and may not
coach the Vols in the bowl. Wisc has covered the L/3 vs the SEC on NY’s Day but Tenn did finish on a
7-3-2 ATS run while facing 10 bowl eligible teams. The Vols running game & defense improved as the
season progressed making them the more balanced team and the choice here.
FORECAST: TENNESSEE 35 WISCONSIN 24 RATING: 3★
This will be the 5th meeting overall (2-2) & a rematch of the ‘03 Independence Bowl which Arkansas won
27-14 (-2’) despite being outgained 407-385. Mizzou is 10-14 in bowls & lost 40-27 vs Texas in their only Cotton
Bowl appearance. This will also be the Tigers’ 1st NYD bowl S/’70 (lost 10-3 vs PSU). Ark is 11-21-3 in bowls,
including 3-6-1 (1-2 ATS) in the Cotton Bowl. The Razorbacks are on a 3-12 SU & 4-11 ATS run in bowls S/’79
are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS on NYD. Pinkel is 2-2 in bowls (2-1 SU & ATS as HC w/MO). Ark interim HC Herring will
be making his HC debut. Both schools sold their allotment of tickets & with the strong recruiting ties for Ark
in TX along with the home of the Big XII for MO the crowd will be a full house at 50/50. Mizzou has faced 6
bowl caliber tms going 5-2 SU & ATS, outscoring opp’s on avg 37-27 & outgaining them on avg 465-364. Ark
was 3-4 SU & 4-3 ATS vs their 7 bowl caliber opps, outgaining them on avg 432-408, but were outscored on
avg 34-31. Both tms played Ole Miss, winning & covering, but Ark only all’d 294 yds & Mizzou gave up 534.
The Tigers have 7 seniors starters with 18 upperclassmen (82%) in starting roles while the Razorbacks start
10 seniors & 17 upperclassmen (77%). Mizzou was 4-0 ATS as an AF TY & Ark is 7-2 ATS as an AD. Ark will
have 8 more days of preparation as MO last played in the Big XII Title gm on Dec 1st.
Missouri was just one gm away from a Nat’l Title shot, but lost to OU for the 2nd time in one yr (only tm that
has beat them all ssn) & was bypassed by the BCS accepting the Cotton Bowl invite ungraciously. Missouri &
Ohio St are the only 2 schools in IA whose losses came vs BCS tms, yet the Tigers are not in the BCS? If you
take away the gms vs OU, Mizzou has dropped 36+ on every opp. Heisman finalist QB Daniel had a stellar Jr
season as he threw for at least 300 yds in 8 gms (62%) & is 4th in the NCAA in ttl off (343 ypg). Jeremy Maclin
broke an NCAA record for the most ttl yds in one ssn by a Fr with 2,713. He is 35% of the Tigers’ total yardage.
John Mackey runner-up Rucker along with Coffman are the best set of TE’s in the nation. The OL avg 6’4†310
with 2 senior starters. The DL avg 6’3†280 with 1 senior starter. The DL is the strength of the D all’g just 101
ypg (3.3) over the L/9 gms. They are led by Sr DT Lorenzo Williams & Jr DE Sulak. The secondary suffered
a big blow with the loss of Sr Pig Brown in late Oct, but does have 5 of 8 upperclassmen in the 2 deep & is
ranked #35 in the pass eff D allowing 262 ypg (62%) with an 18-16 ratio. K Wolfert is a ex-diver on the Mizzou
swim tm & has had an outstanding ssn. Super KR/PR Maclin is a threat to take it all the way on every touch.
Missouri is ranked #2 on offense, #25 on defense & #71 on ST’s (#115 in net punting, 30.9).
HC Nutt’s job was on the line well before the ssn started with all of the offssn drama surrounding the
transfer of former QB Mustain and the other Springdale players. When the Hogs started the ssn 0-3 in SEC
play, planes flew over Ark’s stadium during gms calling for his ouster. The tm led by junior RB’s McFadden &
Jones stuck together and fully supported their HC and won 5 of their L/6 gms including a huge upset of #1
LSU in 3OT to earn a NY’s Day bowl bid. Ark’s offense is #12 in our rankings. Two-time Heisman runner-up
McFadden wasn’t 100% for much of the ssn & was held to 43 yds in their loss to Aub, but tied an NCAA
record with 321 rush yds vs SCar and took nearly half of the snaps from center vs LSU (206 rush, 3 TD).
Jones was inj’d vs Tenn & missed all but 1 snap vs Miss St, but still reached 1,000. QB Dick was solid TY,
but not spectacular with a much improved TD/int ratio (LY 9-6). Dick was hampered by a banged up WR
corps with top WR Monk inj’d in the pressn and not returning until the L/6 gms. Starting WR Johnson missed
2 gms and both Monk & Johnson didn’t get much practice time all yr with the coaches holding them out
to keep them healthy for the gms. The OL is led by Rimington Trophy winner Jonathan Luigs and all’d just
10 sks (3.6%) & the tm finished #3 in the NCAA in rush (297 ypg, 6.2). Ark’s D is #49 in our rankings with
the DL solidifying midssn after Harrison ret’d from susp and settled in at his more natural DT position. Ark
allowed 147 rush ypg (3.
and finished #5 in our pass D rankings all’g 211 ypg (46%) with a 21-19 ratio
vs a tough opposing slate of QB’s. CB Grant led the SEC in PD after moving from FS midssn.
This is a rematch of our 2003 Bowl Game of the Year as Ark (-2’) won 27-14. Missouri was the team
left out of the BCS mix and certainly will use this venue to prove they belonged. Arkansas knocked off the
#1 team in the country in their last game and then struggled to find a HC before luring Petrino from the
Falcons. Missouri has edges on both offense and defense and outgained bowl opponents by 101 ypg while
going 5-2 ATS. Missouri’s run defense is stout enough to slow the powerful Razorback rush attack and QB
Daniel knows that Ark all’d the pass attacks of Alabama and Kentucky to both put up 40+ points. FORECAST: Missouri 41 Arkansas 30 RATING: 4★
This is a rematch of the ‘02 Outback Bowl which Mich won 38-30 (-1), the only prior meeting between
these 2 powers. The Capital One was hoping to get 9-3 Illinois with HC Zook facing his former team, but
instead will host Lloyd Carr’s retirement party. Michigan leads the NCAA with their 33rd straight post season
gm while Florida has played 17 in a row (3rd longest). This is the Gators’ 5th trip to the Capital One Bowl
(2-2 SU) with their last appearance in ‘99 (37-34 loss to Mich St, -2’) while this is UM’s 4th appearance
(2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS). Though Michigan should bring some fans, UF should have a large crowd edge. UF HC
Meyer will be trying to win his 5th straight bowl (4-0 ATS) after LY’s trouncing of #1 ranked Ohio St in the
BCS Title gm as a 7’ pt dog. Meyer is 2-0 ATS as a bowl favorite (both at Utah). Carr is 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS
in bowls (2-3 as bowl dog) & LY suffered a blowout loss to USC in the Rose Bowl (+1). UM has 8 senior
starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles while UF has just 6 senior starters and 11 upperclassmen.
UF is 3-2 SU & ATS on the road TY, but just 2-9 ATS as an AF under Meyer. UM has faced 8 bowl elig
tms (5-3 SU & 3-4-1 ATS) with an avg score of 22-22 while being outgained by them 371-326. UF faced
9 bowl elig tms and outscored those tms 43-27 and outgained foes 447-370. Our rankings show UM with
the tougher schedule overall (#18-35). UM last played on Nov 17 while UF played on Nov 24.
#5 Michigan began ‘07 with National Championship expectations as they returned 4 of the NCAA’s best players
in QB Henne, RB Hart, WR Manningham and OT Long. Their shocking loss in the opener to IAA champ App St not
only dashed those lofty dreams but it also opened the floodgates for what proved to be 1 of the NCAA’s wackiest
ssns ever. The opener was also the last time that all of their stars played a full gm as Henne missed parts of 8
gms (knee & shoulder inj’s) while RB Hart missed 3 due to a nagging ankle inj. True frosh Mallett started 4 gms
(3-1 SU & ATS) but struggled with control (5 int & 10 fmbl’s w/5 lost). Despite the inj, Hart rushed for 100+ in 8
of his 9 gms played and will finally be 100% here. Biletnikoff finalist Manningham was in Carr’s doghouse due to
inconsistent play. Lombardi finalist Long was the steadiest performer on an OL which started 6 different combos.
Overall UM finished with our #47 off. After getting blown out by Oregon, UM rallied to win their next 8 gms thanks
to their D which all’d just 15 ppg and 275 ypg during the streak. The Wolves had 1 of the nation’s top D’s in ‘06 but
had to replace 7 starters incl 5 NFL DC’s. They struggled once again vs spread offenses which featured mobile
QB’s allowing 30 ppg and 421 ypg to App St, Oregon & IL. Crable led NCAA LB’s in tfl and was the only true star
of the defense that ranked #7 overall ST’s were rarely special as K Gingell had 2 FG’s blk’d vs App St which cost
them the gm. P Mesko was a standout vs OSU with 12 punts for a 45.9 avg in foul weather (40.1 net).
UF’s 2006 Nat’l Champ high started to wear off late Sept when the Gators were almost upset by Ole
Miss then the next week Aub upset the Gators in the Swamp as a 17’ pt dog ending their 18 gm home win
streak. The following wk, UF outplayed LSU, but lost in Baton Rouge for Meyer’s 1st B2B losses at Florida
(just 2nd time in career). QB Tebow suffered a shldr inj vs UK, and was unable to run vs rival UGA which
led to the Gators’ final loss of the ssn knocking them out of the SEC Title hunt. Heisman-Winner Tebow set
an NCAA record becoming the only player in history with 20+ pass & rush TD’s in a ssn. Tebow is their #1
offensive weapon (72%) as the tm’s top rusher and finished #2 in the NCAA in pass efficiency. Tebow suffered
a brkn hand vs FSU but is expected to be 100% here. Tebow’s top receiver Harvin missed 2 gms and
was forced to fill in at RB finishing as the #2 rusher. Tebow’s mobility helped the OL allow just 12 sks and
the tm rushed for 198 ypg (5.2). The Gators finished with our #1 offense. UF’s defense ret’d just 2 starters
from ‘06 and finished #42 overall in our rankings. The soft spot is the secondary which features 2 true frosh
starters (CB Haden & FS Wright) and finished #68 in our pass D rankings allowing 249 ypg (59%) with a
16-9 ratio. The rush D finished #10 in the NCAA allowing 99 ypg (3.0). UF has a large edge on ST’s (#18-98)
with returnman James & a net punt avg of 38.6 (#9 in NCAA).
Florida won the ‘06 BCS Champ with a coach who is 4-0 in bowls facing a Michigan squad that lost
its L/2 with a coach that has lost 4 straight bowls. Now let’s look a little deeper. The checklist shows that
Michigan matches up fairly evenly and they were a Top 10 team to start the year but were riddled with injuries
to their offense skill players. They will now finally be healthy and can keep this game close. Intangibles
favor the Wolves playing there final game for HC Carr against the Gators who expected, at worst, a BCS
Sugar Bowl trip as SEC Champs. This game is eerily similar to the ‘05 Capital One Bowl where a seemingly
undermatched Wisconsin squad beat Arkansas 24-10 as 10 point dog in Barry Alvarez’s final game. FORECAST: MICHIGAN (+) 31 Florida 35 RATING: 1★
1st matchup. This is UVA’s 5th bowl appearance under Groh, and the Cavs are 7-9 SU & 7-8-1 ATS overall
in bowls. TT is 9-20-1 SU in bowls & is playing in their 8th straight post ssn gm, all under HC Leach (4-3
SU & 3-4 ATS). This will be UVA’s 2nd appearance in the Gator Bowl (lost to OK 48-14, -2 in ‘91). TT hasn’t
won a NYD bowl S/‘54 (Gator Bowl) going 0-3 SU & 0-2 ATS since. The Raiders are 2-1 in the Gator Bowl
but this is their 1st appearance S/’73. The Cavs have not played a NYD bowl since they lost to BC 31-13 in
the ‘94 Carquest Bowl. UVA has faced 5 bowl caliber tms going 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS while outgaining those
opp’s 335-317 but were outscored 21-20 with 3 one pt wins. TT has faced 6 bowl caliber tms going 2-4 SU
& ATS, avg 510 ypg, outgaining foes by 59 ypg but being outscored 36-32. The Cavs have 7 seniors and 15
upperclassmen (68%) in the starting lineup while TT has just 4 senior starters & 10 upperclassmen (45%).
UVA plays their home games on grass & was 6-4 ATS on it & has the surface edge over TT who plays on
turf (3-7 ATS on grass). The Cavs are just 9-15 ATS as an AD under Groh but went 3-0 TY. TT was 3-1 ATS
as an AF TY. TT should have the fan edge here as they have sold their allotment of 12,000+ while UVA still
had 5,000 tickets remaining and their fans generally don’t travel to far away bowls.
TT is known for its potent offense that scores at will as HC Leach has that kind of persona. The
Red Raiders did return to form this year (42 ppg) from an off that avg ‘d 10 pgg less in ‘06 (prior to the
bowl). TT dropped 34+ on 10 opponents TY (83%). TT was 6-1 & ranked #22, but finished 2-3. They did
beat OU (w/o QB Bradford) to end the regular ssn & are the only Big XII tm to be bowl elig every year
since the league was formed in ‘96. For the 1st time in 6 yrs, TT had the same QB start for 2 straight
yrs. Harrell is #1 in the NCAA in pass yds, pass ypg & pass TD’s. TT however is ranked #119 in rush off
avg 61 ypg. Biletnikoff Winner WR Crabtree (1st FR named AFCA AA since Herschel Walker in ‘80) set
a Fr record with 21 TD (shattered old record of 14). He leads the nation in rec & rec yds & has eleven
100+ yd gms (two 200+). Sr WR Amendola was overshadowed, but his veteran leadership is invaluable.
The OL avg 6’6’’ 331 with NO seniors up front, making them inexperienced, but also the tallest &
largest OL in the country. The DL avg 6’4’’ 262 and again with NO seniors starters. DC Setencich was
let go after Tech all’d 49 pts & 610 yds to OkSt. McNeill has filled as interim DC & since then Tech has
allowed 25 ppg & 348 ypg. The Red Raiders rank #25 in our pass eff def allowing 196 ypg (55%) with
a 19-10 ratio. Texas Tech is ranked #3 on offense, #47 on defense & #15 on sp tms.
UVA started the ssn with an embarrassing 23-3 loss to WY with many wanting Groh fired. However, the
Cavs turned it around and won 7 straight finishing the season 9-3 with Groh being named the ACC COY &
getting his contract extended. UVA played many close games that could have gone either way. A win here
would give UVA 10 wins in a ssn for the first time S/’89. The Cavs lost their top TB Peerman midseason
w/a leg inj (#1 ACC prior to inj) and shuffled around several players until Simpson finally emerged as the
#1. The OL avg 6’5†301 with 2 Sr starters, paving the way for 126 ypg rush (3.4) but did allow 30 sks.
The key to this game for UVA is trying to contain the nation’s #1 passing offense with their #22 ranked D.
Hendricks Winner & ACC Def POY DE Long is #3 in the nation in sks and has that first-step quickness to
apply pressure on TT. Fitzgerald is capable of creating havoc on the other side. The DL avg 6’4†278 is only
all’g 113 ypg rush (3.0) and ranks #6 in the nation with 40 sks. LB Sintim is #2 on the team in sacks and
also has the capability of applying a lot of pressure. UVA’s secondary has struggled, all’g 210 ypg (57%)
with a 15-11 ratio ranking #72 in our pass eff D. They now have to try to defend a team that produced two
1,000+ yd receivers. The Cavs only have our #61 ST ranking but they did have one of the top punters in
the country in Weigand with a 45.5 avg but the tm had 3 P’s blk’d bringing the net to 35.2.
Ironically both of these tms had huge comebacks to beat Minnesota in their previous bowl win
(sorry Glenn Mason). TT’s spread offense is led by Graham Harrell, who passed for 5,000+ yds and
freshman WR Crabtree (1861 yds & 21 TD) and they’ll receive most of the pregame hype. Virginia’s
superstar is DL Long (Howie’s son) who is a one man wrecking crew and this grass field will help slow
the TT offense. The Cavs will quietly prep for this game as the underdog and will keep this one close
against the favored Red Raiders.
FORECAST: VIRGINIA (+) 28 Texas Tech 30 RATING: 2★
The Trojans have won 10 of 12 meetings outscoring the Illini by a 26-10 avg with the last game
in ‘96. Illinois makes their 1st bowl appearance S/’01 (Sugar Bowl) and 1st Rose Bowl S/’83. Since
‘82 the Illini are 3-8 SU in bowls and Zook went 0-2 SU & ATS on NY’s day as Florida’s HC. USC is
making an unprecedented 6th straight BCS Bowl which also happens to be their 32nd Rose Bowl
bid overall. The Trojans are 66-6 their L/72 gms under Carroll with their losses by a combined 20 pts
and are 4-2 SU & ATS in the post season. USC faced 5 bowl caliber teams winning 4 of 5 SU (3-2
ATS) outscoring them by a 27-15 avg. Illinois has faced 9 bowl eligible tms going 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS
outscoring them 27-22 and outgaining them 390-388. USC is playing in their hometown while Illini fans
are expected to flock to Pasadena. USC went 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road TY and IL went 4-2 SU
& ATS including their upset of #1 Ohio St. The Trojans have 10 senior starters and 19 upperclassmen
while bowl hungry Illinois has 8 seniors among 15 upperclassmen. Since the 2nd gm of ‘03 USC has
been favored in every reg ssn game except vs Oregon TY. The Trojans are 4-11 ATS as DD favorites.
IL is 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. IL wrapped up its season Nov 17th while USC finished on Dec 1st.
Ron Zook came to Illinois with the reputation of being a big time recruiter (21 of 22 starters on Florida’s
National Championship tm) but he entered the 2007 season with a 27-33 career record. Zook’s young
squad pulled the NCAA’s largest turnaround in his 3rd year in Champaign going from a 2-10 record to
9-3. The Illini run a no-huddle spread power option which suits the skills of QB Williams. Williams is very
mobile but an unpolished passer, in fact if you take out his 4 TD pass performance vs OSU he had a 9-10
ratio TY. Early in the year Zook frequently substituted Williams with backup McGee who is considered a
better passer but the coach stuck with Juice and was rewarded. Big Ten Offensive POY RB Mendenhall
led the conf in rushing. Frosh WR Benn, who was recruited by USC, led the Illini in receiving despite rarely
being 100% TY due to a shoulder injury. The OL was 1 of the NCAA’s best paving the way for 5.7 ypc with
just 11 sks all’d (3.8%). The offense is #19 in our ranking while the D is #20. The Illini defense is led by AA
LB Leman who was #3 in the conf in tkls. The DL avg’s 6’5†277 and had 38 sks with 3.3 rush ypc all’d.
Illinois ranks #42 in pass eff D led by cover CB Davis who was the only soph to be a Thorpe semifinalist.
The ST’s were a much improved unit (#62) as K Reda hit 3 FG’s from 50+ and the team blk’d 2 kicks.
Trojans QB Booty looked to be the Heisman frontrunner early but a broken finger vs Stanford (4
int in the 2H) caused him to miss the next 3. In Booty’s absence, bkup Sanchez took over leading
USC to victories in 2 of 3 starts. Booty returned & despite accuracy issues early, put together an
impressive performance vs ASU (375 yds, 67%, 4-0 ratio) boosting his confidence to end the ssn.
RB Washington led in rushing for the 2nd straight ssn while rFr Johnson & true frosh McKnight were
forced to carry the remainder of the load after the transfer of Moody (#2 rush LY) and a ssn ending inj
to Gable (#3 rush LY). The WR position was the biggest ? TY after the departure of Jarrett & Smith to
the NFL. The new receiving trio of Turner, Ausberry & Hazelton struggled early in the ssn as TE Davis
led the tm in rec, rec yds & rec TD’s winning the John Mackey Award. The OL is loaded with talent &
size (6’5†303) led by AA LT Baker who helped pave the way for 185 ypg rush (4.7) while all’g 15 sks
(3.6%). USC is ranked #10 on offense. The DL avg 6’5†286 all’g just 79 ypg rush (2.4) led by DT Ellis
and DE Jackson. The LB corps is one of the best in the nation with Maualuga, Rivers & Cushing. The
secondary all’d 180 ypg (54%) with an 8-10 ratio ranking #4 in pass eff D. The def finished #2 overall.
USC struggled on ST’s (#100) as they allowed 3 blk’d P’s and a KR TD.
It is business as usual as USC is playing in their 3rd straight Rose Bowl and 6th straight BCS appearance.
Illinois is thrilled to be selected by the BCS and their season is a success just by landing in this
game. The Trojans have a chip on their shoulder and are out to prove that they are a national power. The
defense has at least 9 players who will be playing on Sundays and already faced a pair of mobile QB’s
in Dixon and Locker. They held Oreg (w/ Dixon) 167 yds under their season avg and held Washington
204 yards under theirs. USC’s HC Carroll against UI HC Zook is one of the biggest bowl mismatches.
FORECAST: USC 34 ILLINOIS 13 RATING: 2★
Hawaii ended the reg ssn with a perfect 12-0 record en route to becoming the only undefeated team in
IA. The Warriors own the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 gms & have won 22 of their L/23 contests.
The Warriors are playing in their first BCS bowl (the WAC’s 2nd in as many yrs) & are making their 5th
bowl appearance in 6 years. Three-time WAC COY (‘99, ‘06, ‘07) Jones has guided the Warriors to 5 of
their 7 bowls & is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS. UGA is playing in their 11th straight bowl & 7th consec bowl under
Richt (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) and LY upset #14 VT in a 31-24 come-from-behind win in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
This is UGA’s 43rd bowl appearance (#6 in NCAA, 23-16-3 record) and their 9th Sugar Bowl (3-5 SU). In
their last Sugar Bowl trip, UGA was upset by WV (-6) 38-35, a gm in which the Dawgs trailed 28-0 early
2Q. UH is 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY outscoring them 35-28 and outgaining them 517-357 while
completing 73% of its pass atts. UGA has faced a much tougher schedule (#49-118) with a 7-2 SU & 6-3
ATS record vs 9 bowl elig tms. UGA outscored those tms 30-22 & outgained them 372-333. The Warriors
are 1-3 SU (3-1 ATS) vs SEC squads S/‘87. UGA sold over 22,000 tickets to this gm as of presstime and
will have a huge crowd edge with possibly less than 1,500 fans making the long trip from Hawaii. UGA is
4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS on the road TY while UH is 5-0 SU & 2-3 ATS. UH has 12 senior & 21 of their starters
are upperclassmen while UGA has just 7 seniors & 13 upperclassmen in starting roles.
UH QB Brennan, the WAC Off POY, directs our #8 rated off & is the NCAA’s career leader with 131
TD passes. Brennan has passed for over 4,000 yds in each of his 3 ssns at UH. TY he threw for over
400 yds & 4 or more TD’s in 6 of UH’s 12 gms with ssn-highs of 548 yds & 6 TD. In the Warriors’ final
2 gms vs their biggest opps, Brennan passed for 937 yds (80%) & 10 TD, including a school-record 20
consec comp vs Wash. UH’s WR trio of Bess, Grice-Mullen & Rivers have each surpassed the 1,000
yd plateau TY (ties NCAA record). UH also had at least 2 WR’s with 100+ yds in a gm 8 times TY
including 4 gms with three 100+ yd receivers. UH’s OL avg 6’2†293 & all 5 have started every game
TY. The unit is primarily a pass-protection front in the Run-&-Shoot (606 pass plays vs 261 rush) &
all’d 26 sks while aiding a running game that avg 3.6 ypc. UH is known for its offense but it features
our #61 rated D which has been flying under the radar. UH is #9 in the NCAA in sks (38), #11 in int
(19) & #5 in 3rd down conv (28.7%). UH’s DL avg 6’3â€, 281 & DE Veikune leads the WAC in sks. The
LB duo of Elimimian & Leonard both eclipsed the century mark in tkls while the veteran secondary
all’d 217 ypg (57%) with a 15-19 ratio earning our #23 overall pass eff D ranking. UH is #55 in our ST
ratings & PK Kelly hit two HUGE kicks to keep UH’s undefeated season & BCS hopes alive.
UGA’s young offense (#41) is led by soph QB Stafford who made great strides after a rocky true
frosh ssn improving his TD/int ratio from 7-13 in ‘06. However, the team’s 6 gm win streak to end the
ssn can partially be attributed to RB Moreno who started the L/6 after Brown & Lumpkin were inj’d.
Brown ret’d as a bkup in the L/3 & led the tm vs GT with 139. Lumpkin (‘06’s top rusher with 798, 4.9)
may be available for the bowl. The WR’s were steady but unspectacular for most of the ssn with less
dropped passes than ‘06. The OL starts 3 true frosh and all’d just 15 sks (4.4%) while opening holes
for 179 rush ypg (4.6). UGA’s #15 D was solid vs the run all’g 120 ypg (3.4) & had a solid pass rush
with DT Atkins collecting 29 qbh & DE Howard having 33. The safeties were a little banged up TY, so
CB Allen finished as the #2 tklr and UGA finished #41 in our pass D rankings all’g 205 ypg (59%) with
an 11-11 ratio. They will need their top 6 DB’s (at least) to be healthy for the bowl, but UGA did hold
the best QB they faced, Tebow (though stationary due to shldr inj) to 236 pass yds and 1 TD pass.
Though UGA is happy to make a BCS bowl, this is potentially a lose-lose situation for the Dawgs
because if they beat UH, they “only†beat a WAC tm, and if they lose, it will be a replay of LY’s Fiesta
Bowl. Hawaii is thrilled with a BCS appearance and does have hope from fellow WAC member Boise’s
Fiesta Bowl win. Georgia however will use that same upset from LY to keep themselves focused and
HC Richt has made a point that their loss to WV in 2005 catapulted the Mountaineers program. A
focused Georgia team will show you the talent difference between the SEC and the WAC,
FORECAST: GEORGIA 43 Hawaii 27 RATING: 2★
