NEWSLETTERS AND INFO
Newsletters 11/22-11/27
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Pointwise
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CENTRAL FLORIDA over Utep RATING: 1
VANDERBILT over Wake Forest RATING: 1
SAN JOSE STATE over Nevada RATING: 2
KANSAS over Missouri RATING: 3
WEST VIRGINIA over Uconn RATING: 3
FRESNO STATE over Kansas State RATING: 4
OKLAHOMA STATE over Oklahoma RATING: 5
CINCINNATI over Syracuse RATING: 5
NFL KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND over Philadelphia RATING: 2
TAMPA BAY over Washington RATING: 3
HOUSTON over Cleveland RATING: 4
ST LOUIS over Seattle RATING: 4
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo RATING: 5
posted by phantom
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Confidential Kick-Off!!
11 *VANDERBILT over Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
*VANDERBILT 32 - Wake Forest 23
Southern CKO sources report veteran, smartly-coached Vandy has been able to quickly shake off painful 25-24 come-from-ahead loss vs. rival Tennessee (FG kicker missed 3 of 4!) in preparation for "monumental" match vs. Wake Forest. After all, 'Dores become bowl eligible with their 1st non-losing season since 1982 with victory here! We like their chances. Vandy's well-balanced attack, directed by more careful QB Adams (4 TDs, no ints. last 2 games) will do damage vs. penetrable WF defense which has allowed 36 pts. or more in 3 road games in '07. And after facing a challenging trio of gifted, rifle-armed QBs in Tebow, Woodson & Ainge over past 3 weeks, swift, gang-tackling Vandy defense (just 19 ppg in 5 home games) will be prepared for Deacons less-dynamic aerial game generating fewer than 200 ypg (only 10 TDP). Moreover, 'Dores won't be fooled by Grobe's myriad of misdirection plays, having upset Deacons 24-20 in Winston-Salem in '05
10 *UCF over Utep
Late Score Forecast:
*UCF 52 - Utep 24
Hot meets cold in this game, as UCF has won 5 straight, posting a 4-1 spread mark as star RB Kevin Smith rushed for 206 ypg and 14 TDs in that streak. Contrast that success with slumping UTEP, which has exactly the reverse record (0-5 SU, 1-4 vs. the number) and has yielded 45 ppg & 528 ypg in that nosedive. The UTEP defense yields 5.0 ypc and ranks 100th against the run, so "24-K" (Smith), who leads the nation in scoring at 13.6 ppg, figures to continue his productive surge. UCF sr. QB Kyle Israel is also contributing, completing 69% of his passes in the Golden Knights last 5. It will be a raucous crowd at the new Bright House Networks Stadium, where the first 5 games have resulted in 5 of the top 8 all-time crowds for UCF home games.
10 *RICE over Tulsa
Late Score Forecast:
*RICE 37 - Tulsa 38
Realize a win here gives Tulsa a spot in the C-USA championship game, but a victory won't come easily in Houston. Few QBs (if any) are hotter than Rice triggerman Chase Clement, who's thrown for 1112 yards & 12 TDs in the last 3 games. The Owls have put up 43 ppg, and Clement and jr. WR Jarett Dillard have hooked up 33 times in that run, with Dillard catching 2 TD passes in each of the three games. Okay, so Rice doesn't play defense, but that's not exactly Tulsa's forte either. The Golden Hurricane gives up 34 ppg & ranks 104th in total defense this season, and Tulsa has had turnover issues (-8 ratio). Certainly Tulsa QB Paul Smith (3rd in the country in total offense) will do damage, but Clement will trade him TD-for-TD all the way
10 WASHINGTON ST. over *Washington
Late Score Forecast:
WASHINGTON ST. 30-*Washington 24
Admittedly, Washington State's 8-TO nightmare vs. Oregon State was bad enough to prompt a visit from Mike Wallace to see what really happened vs. Beavers. But Pac-10 sources convinced those shenanigans unlikely to occur in heated Apple Cup, where Cougs should be focused to atone for bitter 3-point home loss to U-Dub in '06 that knocked WSU out of bowl picture. Can't blame Cougar "D" for the result vs. OSU, and Bill Doba's stop unit has indeed played much better in second half of season since young 2ndary matured and platoon switched to 3-4 alignment. And no surprise if WSU QB Brink exploits burnable Husky "D" in his final game as a Coug. Meanwhile, UW unreliable as chalk (2-8 last 10 in role) with either Jake Locker or backup Carl Bonnell (just 7 of 19 vs. Cal) at QB.
10 WASHINGTON over *Tampa Bay
Late Score Forecast:
WASHINGTON 20 - *Tampa Bay 13
(Sunday, November 25)
Don't count the Redskins out just yet! Although Washington has lost 3 of its last 4 and relinquished a pole position in the NFC wildcard race, developments in last Sunday's near-miss at Dallas indicate Redskins could still figure somewhere in the playoff mix. In particular, WR Santa Moss (9 catches vs. Cowboys) appears fully recovered from recent heel injury that limited his effectiveness the past month. And the legit deep threat Moss provides is once again giving QB Jason Campbell the confidence to look downfield after being forced to dink and rely on RB Clinton Portis' thrusts in recent weeks. Granted, Tampa Bay opening up some daylight in soft NFC South, but Buc attack remains somewhat limited with young OL often struggling to provide QB Garcia proper pass protection.
TOTALS: OVER (51) in the Houston-Cleveland game--Some way, some how (Josh Cribbs' returns are helping), Cleveland has found a way to go "over" 9-0-1 TY!...UNDER (41) in the Minnesota-N.Y. Giants game--Giants' back seven improving; Vikes much prefer the overland route.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): CINCINNATI (-20) at Syracuse...Bearcats, with their takeaway defense and much-improved offense, too much for limited, downtrodden Syracuse...MEMPHIS (-8) vs. Smu--Tigers have come out of nowhere to enter bowl picture; Mustangs' defense has too little rush, way too little coverage to cool down hot Memphis QB Hankins...NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+8) over Ball State--Prideful Northern still tough to beat in DeKalb despite slew of early-season injuries...TEMPLE (+11) at Western Michigan--Slowly ascending Owls enjoying being back in the MAC, where they're 5-1 vs. the spread in 2007...NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) vs. Minnesota--Somewhere along the line, the Vikings' limited QBing is likely to fail under the pressure of the G-men's pass-rushers.
posted by phantom
Nov. 20 2007 2:26pm -
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THE GOLDSHEET
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22
Green Bay 26 - DETROIT 17--Can history of 45 years ago repeat itself, when Detroit exposed a then-undefeated, Vince Lombardi G.B. team as mere mortals in a 26-14 Thanksgiving win? Well, unless Alex Karras, Roger Brown, Darris McCord, and Joe Schmidt are willing to put on the pads and harass Brett Favre as they did Bart Starr (12 sacks!) in '62, we're not sure. With Lions gaining only a few inches per carry the last two weeks, doubt Detroit can exploit recent Pack softness vs. run. Emergence of ex-Domer RB Ryan Grant completing the hot Packers' (13-1 SU last 14; 11-2-1 vs. spread) offensive puzzle. TV-FOX
(06-G. Bay 31-DET. 24...D.23-18 D.23/105 G.27/60 G.25/36/0/340 D.25/40/1/319 G.2 D.0)
(06-G. BAY 17-Det. 9...G.19-10 G.32/139 D.20/58 G.20/37/3/164 D.16/26/2/84 G.1 D.1)
(06-Green Bay +6' 31-24, GREEN BAY -5' 17-9...SR: Green Bay 84-64-7)
DALLAS 37 - NY Jets 16--Yes, N.Y. "dug in" last week, catching the high-flying Steelers a bit unaware. But now that the Jets are back out on the road, on short rest, vs. the volatile Dallas attack, doubt they can handle the "Romo to T.O. Show," which has now produced 12 TD connections this season. Cowboys (9-1 SU, 7-3 vs. spread; 8-2 "over") having lots of fun, while 2-8 N.Y. investing in the future with QB Clemens and trying to hold on in 2007 the best they can. TV--CBS
(03-Dallas +3 17-6...SR: Dallas 6-2)
*Indianapolis 26 - ATLANTA 10--The presence of Byron Leftwich (3 sacks, 2 ints., 2 fumbles last week) or Joey Harrington in this game is akin to George Chuvalo subbing for Joe Frazier in the Thrilla in Manila, as the NFL Network originally envisioned this as a marquee matchup between Peyton Manning & Michael Vick. So it goes. Expect a lower-scoring affair, especially with Indy "O" slumping and Marvin Harrison's status still a ?, and with Colt defense now the premier platoon on field. "Unders" prevalent lately both ways (Indy "under" 10-4 last 14; Atl. "under" 18-7-1 since LY). TV--NFL NETWORK
(03-INDIANAPOLIS -7' 38-7...SR: Indianapolis 12-1)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Denver 20 - CHICAGO 17--With the Bears just as inconsistent on defense, at RB, and in their OL as they are at QB, will side with quicker Denver, which is capable of throwing some speedy pass rushers and tight coverage at Rex Grossman (will Lovie turn back to Griese?). Even with its own myriad problems, young Broncos now have lots of valuable experience, with several (DE Dumervil, WR Marshall) becoming solid contributors. (03-Chicago +10' 19-10...SR: EVEN 6-6)
Tennessee 27 - CINCINNATI 20--Because Tennessee takes its rushing game (No. 4 in NFL prior to Monday nighter in Denver) and defense (No. 2) on the road, Titans have become a "tough out" as a visitor (6-1 last 7 SU prior to Bronco game). And defense is certainly not the strong suit of the banged-up Bengals (31st overall; 27th vs. the run thru Week 10). Carson Palmer, betrayed by his OL & RBs, suffered four ints. last week. Vince Young (only 4 TDP, but 10 ints. prior to MNF) struggling somewhat, but note Cincy only 1-8 last 9 if home dog.
(05-Cincinnati -3 31-23...SR: Tennessee 38-31-1)
JACKSONVILLE 16 - Buffalo 13--David Garrard returned with success last week vs. S.D., with two TDP, no sacks, and no interceptions (none for season so far). Meanwhile, the Bills got seriously killed to death by the Pats last week. But, given the nature of the NFL, no surprise to see them put up a stubborn performance, especially if Marshawn Lynch (751 YR) back from sprained ankle. Bills 14-5 last 19 as dog.
(06-BUF. 27-Jack. 24...J.19-13 J.35/207 B.23/72 B.21/28/1/169 J.16/22/0/116 B.0 J.1)
(06-BUFFALO +3 27-24...SR: Buffalo 4-3)
Oakland 19 - KANSAS CITY 13--There aren't many teams against whom Oakland enjoys a QB edge these days. But with Brodie Croyle virtually getting the job by default in K.C., this might be one of those spots. Daunte Culpepper showed there's plenty of life left in his arm at Minnesota (344 YP), while Justin Fargas (578 YR in 2007) adding speed on the ground. Chiefs' complementary weapons not inspiring much confidence these days, especially with Larry Johnson still hurting and Priest Holmes not the same RB he was a few years ago. PK Janikowski (5 FGs last week) the Raiders' best weapon lately, but that's enough to get Oakland over the hump in this one.
(07-K. City 12-OAK. 10...K.14-10 K.32/126 O.24/55 O.18/29/1/213 K.16/32/1/164 K.0 O.1)
(06-K. CITY 17-Oak. 13...K.21-18 K.37/200 O.34/133 O.15/25/1/193 K.9/16/0/92 K.0 O.0)
(06-K. City 20-OAK. 9...K.19-18 K.38/150 O.24/112 O.27/37/2/195 K.12/24/1/142 K.0 O.3)
(07-K. City +2' 12-10; 06-K. CITY -9 17-13, K. City -7 20-9...SR: Kansas City 52-43-2)
Houston 34 - CLEVELAND 27--Before going any further, must note that Cleveland has gone "over" 9-0-1 in '07! And with Matt Schaub back at the controls for Houston, we'll get the "over" recommendation out of the way first. But Browns also going "over" because of numerous defensive shortcomings, with rush "D" a season-long sieve and DL unable to generate any consistent pressure on opposing QBs (Cleve. 29th in sacks), such that even stagnant Ravens exploited them last week. With Schaub and star WR Andre Johnson (73-yard TDC vs. Saints) back in the lineup, Texan offense can strike vertically.
(06-HOU. 14-Cleve. 6...C.19-11 C.28/127 H.26/94 C.25/34/1/179 H.9/15/1/83 H.0 C.2)
(06-HOUSTON -5 14-6...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Seattle 23 - ST. LOUIS 16--Seattle's Oct. 21 home victory over the injury-depleted St. Louis was a virtual walkover, with Seahawks collecting 7 sacks and 5 takeaways. Yes, Rams have recorded back-to-back road wins, but over fading New Orleans and the punchless 49ers. Meanwhile, Seattle QB Hasselbeck (337 YP) was intellectually near the top of his game last week vs. the Bears, and the quickness of RB Maurice Morris (87 YR) a welcome addition. Seahawk WR corps back intact, while St. Louis (6 sacks last week) still crippled up front on offense.
(07-SEA. 33-St. Lou. 6...Se.19-15 Se.32/100 St.17/53 Se.18/35/1/189 St.21/40/3/168 Se.0 St.2)
(06-Sea. 30-ST. LOU. 28...St.21-20 Se.28/125 St.22/59 St.26/39/1/309 Se.19/34/0/239 Se.1 St.1)
(06-SEA. 24-St. Lou. 22...Se.19-18 Se.26/160 St.20/108 St.26/40/1/191 Se.15/23/0/123 Se.2 St.0)
(07-SEATTLE -8 33-6; 06-Seattle -3 30-28, SEATTLE -3' 24-22...SR: St. Louis 10-9)
NY GIANTS 24 - Minnesota 13--With veteran Chester Taylor (career-best 164 YR vs. Oakland) available, Minny would be foolish to rush prize property Adrian Peterson and his sprained knee ligament back into action. But the minimal QBing of the Vikes (53% completions, only 5 TDP) is likely to leave them vulnerable to the N.Y. pass rushers (34 sacks). And pass defense has been Minnesota's weakness for two years. Can Eli Manning avoid the second-half-of-the-season slips that have hampered the Giants' in recent years? (05-Minnesota +9 24-21...SR: Minnesota 11-10)
New Orleans 27 - CAROLINA 20--The Panthers are mysteriously frustrating their fans TY, going 0-4 SU & vs. the spread in Charlotte. Can Vinny Testaverde (recently turned 44) or sore-spined David Carr snap them out of that slump vs. revenged-minded N.O. and its quick-hitting passing attack? Such is not likely, especially with WR Steve Smith (out last week due to shin injury) sidelined and Julius Peppers (only 2½ sacks) having virtually disappeared from NFL highlights TY. Erratic Saints & Drew Brees likely to produce more points.
(07-Car. 16-N. ORL. 13...N.23-12 N.28/89 C.28/88 N.29/47/2/252 C.11/19/1/155 C.0 N.0)
(06-CAR. 21-N. Orl. 18...N.22-20 C.29/167 N.23/63 N.28/38/0/344 C.19/29/0/157 C.0 N.1)
(06-Car. 31-N. ORL. 21...C.20-13 C.33/106 N.17/61 N.20/29/1/236 C.23/27/0/207 C.0 N.1)
(07-Carolina +3 16-13; 06-CAROLINA -7 21-18, Carolina -3 31-21...SR: Carolina 15-10)
Washington 16 - TAMPA BAY 14--Buccaneers improved, but their close-to-the-vest offense should play right into the hands of Washington, which usually doesn't mind grind-'em-out affairs. Emerging QB Jason Campbell has more quality targets (WRs Moss, Randle El & McCardell, and H-back Cooley) than does T.B.'s Garcia. With some new quickness on the Bucs' defense, T.B. has gone "under" 10 of last 15 overall.
(06-T. BAY 20-Wash. 17...T.19-15 T.42/181 W.20/64 W.19/34/0/188 T.14/21/1/178 T.1 W.1)
(06-TAMPA BAY -3 20-17...SR: EVEN 8-8)
UNDER THE TOTAL ARIZONA 22 - San Francisco 6--Even with the "price" rising, only one way to go with the side here until S.F. (0-8 SU, 1-7 vs. spread last can find some punch. That's not likely to happen vs. 2007 NFC West nouveau contender Arizona (3-1 SU & vs. spread at home TY), which is enjoying being in the race. 49er defense (6 sacks last week) still hustling, but S.F. scoring just 9 ppg its last 8. Kurt Warner more careful in HC Whisenhunt's offense, which is keeping defenses honest with the run.
(07-S. FRAN. 20-Ariz. 17...A.20-16 A.38/161 S.22/92 S.15/31/0/102 A.14/28/2/100 S.1 A.0)
(06-ARIZ. 34-S. Fran. 27...A.23-19 S.18/107 A.29/84 S.23/40/0/286 A.23/37/0/283 A.1 S.2)
(06-Ariz. 26-S. FRAN. 20...A.21-14 A.41/123 S.12/49 A.18/26/0/249 S.18/29/1/174 A.1 S.1)
(07-S. FRAN. -3 20-17; 06-ARIZONA -8' 34-27, Arizona +4 26-20...SR: San Francisco 18-14)
SAN DIEGO 27 - Baltimore 12--Despite their many 2007 disappointments, the Norv Turner Chargers have been a formidable home team (4-1 vs. the spread). Meanwhile, the Ravens have fought hard this year, but not particularly well (1-9 vs. the spread!). Subbing for Steve McNair last week, Kyle Boller suffered 6 sacks, 1 fumble, and 2 ints., one of them returned for a 100-yard TD! That means Shawne Merriman (5½ sacks) and CB Antonio Cromartie (6 ints.) will be licking their chops.
(06-BALT. 16-S. Diego 13...B.14-13 S.41/150 B.21/56 B.17/30/2/150 S.13/23/1/134 B.1 S.0)
(06-BALTIMORE +2 16-13...SR: Baltimore 3-2)
*NEW ENGLAND 45 - Philadelphia 17--Rematch of the Super Bowl three seasons ago. However, with T.O. having taken his act to Dallas and Donovan McNabb (check ankle injury) in decline, it's tough to expect Philly to keep pace with the loaded 2007 Patriots, especially with Randy Moss (16 TDC) having turned into a dynamic model citizen and the inordinately precise Tom Brady (38 TDs, only 4 ints.!) apparently on the all-time QB roll. They again please their N.E. fans while the Pats' LBs keep Brian Westbrook well under control. TV--NBC
(04-N. Eng. -7 24-21 (Super Bowl XXXIX at Jacksonville)...SR: Philadelphia 6-4)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26
*PITTSBURGH 35 - Miami 10--Willie Parker (925 YR) is making no secret of the fact he's after the rushing title now that Adrian Peterson's injury has opened the door. And Ben Roethlisberger (23 TDs, only 8 ints.) is close to his Super Bowl form after LY's injuries. The Dolphins might activate Ricky Williams for this game. But Williams or no, rookie QB John Beck is likely to be plenty mystified by Pittsburgh's array of zone blitzes. Just a couple of turnovers might help the Steelers (4-1 vs. the spread at home) bounce back with a vengeance after last week's "soft" performance visiting the Jets. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-PITT 28-Miami 17...P.20-15 P.38/143 M.18/38 M.18/37/2/240 P.15/25/0/196 P.1 M.0)
(06-PITTSBURGH -1 28-17...SR: Miami 11-10)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Miami and Pittsburgh on Monday Night
Miami is 6-15 straight-up and 9-11-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
32-17 straight-up and 29-20 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Pittsburgh is 21-5 straight-up and 19-7 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
13-17 straight-up and 15-14-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
NFL KEY RELEASES
OAKLAND by 6 over Kansas City
HOUSTON by 7 over Cleveland
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the San Francisco-Arizona game
NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona 7 3 5-5 6-3-1 6-4 22-22 3-1 21-20 3-2 23-24
Atlanta- 11 1 3-7 6-4 3-7 14-21 2-3 17-24 4-1 12-18
Baltimore 9 1 4-6 1-9 4-4 17-21 1-4 21-19 0-5 13-24
Buffalo 9 3 5-5 7-3 4-6 15-22 5-1 20-24 2-2 9-19
Carolina 12 1 4-6 4-6 3-7 17-21 0-4 12-26 4-2 20-18
Chicago 9 2 4-6 3-7 5-5 18-22 0-4 17-24 3-3 19-21
Cincinnati 10 2 3-7 4-6 6-4 25-29 2-3 24-29 2-3 26-28
Cleveland 8 3 6-4 8-2 9-0 29-29 4-1 32-31 4-1 26-28
Dallas -1 3 9-1 7-3 8-2 32-22 3-2 32-25 4-1 33-18
Denver 7 2 4-5 2-7 7-2 17-26 1-4 17-26 1-3 17-27
Detroit 9 4 6-4 5-4-1 5-5 23-23 3-1 27-17 2-3 19-30
Green Bay 2 5 9-1 8-1-1 6-4 26-16 4-1 25-16 4-0 28-16
Houston 8 3 5-5 5-5 5-4 23-24 3-2 25-20 2-3 20-27
Indianapolis- 0 2 8-2 6-4 3-7 28-16 4-1 29-16 2-3 27-16
Jacksonville 4 3 7-3 6-4 6-4 21-18 2-3 18-17 4-1 23-20
Kansas City 10 2 4-6 5-4-1 4-6 15-19 1-3 16-21 4-1 13-16
Miami 14 2 0-10 2-6-2 5-5 18-27 0-4 19-34 1-2 20-25
Minnesota 10 2 4-6 4-4-2 5-5 20-21 3-2 24-18 1-2 15-24
New England -10 4 10-0 9-1 8-2 41-16 4-0 41-11 5-1 42-19
New Orleans- 8 3 4-6 3-7 5-4 21-25 1-4 24-25 2-3 19-24
NY Giants 4 3 7-3 6-4 5-4 24-20 3-2 23-22 3-1 27-21
NY Jets+ 11 2 2-8 3-6-1 5-4 18-24 2-3 16-22 1-3 21-28
Oakland 13 1 2-8 3-7 5-5 18-22 0-5 16-23 3-2 20-22
Philadelphia 7 3 5-5 5-5 4-6 21-19 2-3 24-21 3-2 18-16
Pittsburgh 4 4 7-3 6-4 5-5 27-15 4-1 31-11 2-3 23-18
St. Louis 11 2 2-8 3-7 3-7 15-26 1-3 20-26 2-4 12-25
San Diego- 5 4 5-5 5-5 6-3 23-21 4-1 23-16 1-4 23-26
San Francisco 14 1 2-8 2-7-1 3-7 11-22 1-3 10-19 1-4 13-26
Seattle 7 4 6-4 5-5 4-6 22-16 4-2 25-14 1-3 18-20
Tampa Bay 6 4 6-4 5-4-1 4-6 20-15 3-1 22-12 2-3 17-18
Tennessee 6 2 6-3 5-3-1 2-6 20-17 2-3 17-16 3-0 23-18
Washington 9 3 5-5 3-5-2 5-4 20-22 1-3 23-18 2-2 17-26
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “Oâ€â€”Offense. “Dâ€â€”Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions. ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years. TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22
*ARZIONA STATE 24 - Southern Cal 20--Acknowledge Pete Carroll's 22-0 SU record in November since taking over at SC in '01. But by this stage of campaign, we've seen enough of this Trojan edition not to compare it with the high-powered Palmer/Leinart/Bush offensive machines from earlier in decade (Troy has exceeded 27 points just once in last 7 games). If anything, ASU's efforts more impressive this season, and as long as QB Carpenter's sore thumb properly healed after "bye" week, Sun Devils get closer to coveted BCS berth. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-S. CAL 28-Ariz. St. 21...S.18-13 S.36/159 A.33/121 S.12/25/1/148 A.12/21/0/124 S.1 A.1)
(06-USC -19 28-21 05-Usc -15 38-28 04-USC -10' 45-7...SR: Southern Cal 14-9)
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23
Central Michigan 27 - AKRON 16--CMU has a significant QB edge, as Chips' Dan LeFevour is 9th in the country in total offense, while Zip counterpart Chris Jaquemain has completed just 39% in his last 4 games with 7 ints. & just 4 TD passes. CMU HC Butch Jones undoubtedly would like his team to get back on winning track in preparation for upcoming MAC title game against Miami-Ohio. Unless Jaquemain comes up with an aberrational performance, CMU wins with relative ease. CABLE TV--ESPNU
(06-C. MICH. 24-Akron 21...A.24-16 C.36/129 A.31/61 A.25/46/3/375 C.16/23/1/162 C.1 A.0)
(06-CENTRAL MICH. +1 24-21 05-Central Mich. +10' 31-17...SR: Central Michigan 11-9-1)
COLORADO 37 - Nebraska 27--After jr. backup QB Joe Ganz led 7-TDP, 702-yard, 73-point explosion for Nebraska vs. K-State, NU offense brimming with confidence. It must be noted, however, that the thin, rebuilding Husker defense is giving up a lofty 35.5 ppg, 8 points more than host Colorado. Both teams are 5-6 and need this one for bowl eligibility. In that case, will favor the better defense, chemistry, creativity and kicking game of Buffaloes, who have often been at their best in recent years vs. their rivals from Lincoln. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-NEB. 37-Colo. 14...N.24-14 N.46/190 C.31/166 N.20/30/0/278 C.11/23/0/131 N.2 C.0)
(06-NEB. -14 37-14 05-Neb. +16 30-3 04-Colo. +2' 26-20...SR: Nebraska 46-17-2)
MISSISSIPPI STATE 35 - Mississippi 21--In the "Egg Bowl," prefer to lay single digits with resurgent, bowl-bound MSU squad that had season-high 501 yds. in 45-31 setback at Arkansas. With Bulldogs emerging frosh QB Carroll (421 YP, but 4 ints. vs. Hogs) cleaning up his mistakes, look for coming State attack to repeatedly burn talent-shy Ole Miss defense (last in SEC in scoring & rush "D"). Meanwhile, floundering Rebels in danger of 1st winless SEC season since '92, and embroiled HC Orgeron's late-season QB shuffling not a positive.
(06-MISS. 20-Miss. St. 17...S.19-10 S.35/152 U.27/58 S.16/34/1/162 U.10/23/0/142 U.0 S.0)
(06-MISS. -3 20-17 05-MSU +2 35-14 04-MISS. -5' 20-3...SR: Mississippi 59-38-6)
COLORADO STATE 26 - Wyoming 17--Perhaps intense border rivalry vs. hated foe will provide jolt that stumbling Wyo (0-7-1 vs. line last 8 TY) has been missing since September. Then again, maybe it won't. CSU at least playing hard down stretch, with RB G. Johnson (5.5 ypc L6 games) emerging as a force. And possible huge emotional effort could be forthcoming from Rams if this is beloved HC Sonny Lubick's last game (pending retirement rumors rife in Rockies).
(06-WYO. 24-Colo. St. 0...W.15-12 W.39/166 C.22/42 C.23/45/2/217 W.10/22/0/152 W.0 C.1)
(06-WYO. -4 24-0 05-CSU -3' 39-31 04-CSU -4' 30-7...SR: Colorado State 53-40-5)
BOWLING GREEN 41 - Toledo 28--Realize it's a dicey play to back BG at Doyt Perry Stadium, where the Falcons had dropped 9 straight spread decisions until whipping Akron 44-20 Nov. 2. However, Falcon QB Sheehan (64%, 20 TD passes) and his array of weapons (WR Barnes 72 catches; "slash" back Turner 250 YR, 4 TDs rushing, 2 TD passes & 13 recs. last 3 games) will do a lot of damage facing Toledo defense yielding the most points in the country. CABLE TV--ESPNU
(06-TOLEDO 31-B. Green 21...B.20-16 T.47/208 B.31/76 B.24/42/1/246 T.10/13/0/107 T.0 B.0)
(06-TOL. -6' 31-21 05-Tol. +6' 44-41 (OT) 04-TOL. +4' 49-41...SR: Bowling Green 36-31-4)
LSU 34 - Arkansas 27--Now that Arkansas QB Dick (career-best 14 of 17 & 4 TDP vs. Miss. St.) is finally able to take some pressure off future NFL 1st-rounder RB McFadden (1519 YR, 5.6 ypc), capable 7-4 Hogs able to hang inside number vs. top-ranked LSU, which is a money-burnin' 1-10 vs. spread last 11 as SEC host (0-3 TY). Arkansas fighting especially hard for embattled, well-liked HC Nutt, while top-ranked LSU compelled to stay healthy with SEC title game on horizon. Remember, McFadden rambled for 182 YR without much help from Dick (an ugly 3 of 17 passing) in competitive 31-26 series loss LY. Take. TV--CBS
(06-Lsu 31-ARK. 26...A.16-15 A.39/298 L.36/118 L.14/22/0/210 A.5/20/1/62 L.2 A.0)
(06-Lsu -1' 31-26 at LR 05-LSU -17 19-17 04-Lsu -3' 43-14 at LR...SR: LSU 34-17-2)
Texas 25 - TEXAS A&M 23--Last game for Dennis Franchione in College Station? The events of last week mean a Texas win keeps the Longhorns alive in the Big XII South. Colt McCoy is seeking redemption after he played hurt in LY's game and tossed 3 interceptions. And the speedy Jamaal Charles has ignited the UT ground assault with 644 YR in just the last three games. But Longhorns not a dominating team TY, and A&M option QB McGee has developed his passing in recent games. The Aggie defense has seen six spread-option attacks TY (although it has often left plenty to be desired). REG. TV--ABC
(06-Tex. A&M 12-TEXAS 7...A.17-16 A.51/244 U.25/70 U.17/29/4/160 A.7/13/0/58 A.1 U.0)
(06-Tam +13' 12-7 05-Texas -28 40-29 04-TEXAS -10' 26-13...SR: Texas 73-35-5)
*Boise State 40 - HAWAII 33--In a rare WAC showdown with BCS implications, Boise (which has outside BCS hopes of its own) certainly won't be lacking for confidence after beating Hawaii last 6 meetings! And conference scouts remain a bit skeptical about veteran Warrior "D" that has lacked some of the edge under 1st-year d.c. McMackin it played with under Jerry Glanville the last few years. Even with Colt Brennan available for June Jones' Red Gun, red-hot Bronco QB Tharp (27 TDP) and host of Boise weapons capable of surviving another expected shootout. CABLE TV--ESPN2
(06-BOISE ST. 41-Hawaii 34...B.26-24 B.44/242 H.18/88 H.25/37/1/388 B.17/29/1/273 B.0 H.2)
(06-BSU -14' 41-34 05-Bsu -10' 44-41 04-BSU -22' 69-3...SR: Boise State 6-2)
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 24
South Florida 28 - PITTSBURGH 13--Panthers have been righteous dog TY, covering 4 of 5 when getting points. But compelled to back profitable Bulls (13-6 vs. spread last 19 on board). Touted frosh RB Ford (274 YR & 4 TDs last 2 games; originally signed with Alabama) giving versatile soph QB Grothe greater ground support recently. Conversely, Pitt frosh RB McCoy unlikely to make much headway against soph DE Selvie (nation-leading 30½ tackles for loss!) & speedy South Florida defense.
(06-S. FLA. 22-Pitt 12...S.18-12 S.48/190 P.23/55 S.20/26/2/187 P.11/23/3/159 S.2 P.0)
(06-USF +4' 22-12 05-PITT -1' 31-17 04-Pitt -6' 43-14...SR: EVEN 2-2)
WEST VIRGINIA 31 - Connecticut 19--Mountaineers own inside track to Big East title and have been climbing back up BCS rankings since early loss at South Florida. Doubt they'll be derailed at Morgantown. But no big surprise if visiting Huskies (covered 7 of last able to hang inside roomy impost. They have a productive rushing attack & an underrated defense, and well-coached UConn (only 11 turnovers TY) takes care of rock.
(06-West Va. 37-CONN. 11...17-17 W.42/263 C.33/95 W.9/14/1/156 C.15/34/2/115 W.1 C.0)
(06-Wva -23 37-11 05-WVA -15 45-13 04-Wva -6' 31-19...SR: West Virginia 3-0)
UCF 52 - Utep 24--Sure, Miners have some offensive firepower. But not nearly enough to compensate for their awful defense. Plummeting UTEP has lost 5 straight (1-4 vs. spread), permitting 45 ppg during that recent tailspin. A berth in C-USA title game is within Knights' grasp. They'll ride star jr. TB Kevin Smith (1945 YR & league-record 25 TDs) to easy win. (FIRST MEETING)
Missouri 34 - Kansas 31--Remarkable Kansas (11-0 SU, 10-0 vs. the spread) is on the verge of pointspread history with its season-long run. But Missouri (10-1 & 8-2) is not far behind. And the Tigers have played the tougher schedule, with jr. QB Daniel (69.3%, 30 TDs, 9 ints.) more battle-tested than Jayhawks' confident soph Reesing (63.3%, 30 TDs, 4 ints.). KU's RB McAnderson (514 YR last 4 games) is the most powerful force on the field, but Mizzou WR/KR Maclin (3 return TDs; 16 TDs overall) is the most dynamic. The Jayhawks have CB Talib and hold some statistical edges (scoring defense, TO margin, etc.), but Daniel's greater experience under pressure could be the key. (at Kansas City, MO)
(06-MO. 42-Kansas 17...M.27-14 K.29/160 M.37/137 M.26/38/0/356 K.12/23/1/162 M.0 K.1)
(06-MO. -7' 42-17 05-KANSAS +5 13-3 04-Kansas +11 31-14...SR: EVEN 53-53-9)
NORTH CAROLINA 33 - Duke 24--Blue Devils (dropped last 5 vs. spread) wrapping up another miserable campaign. There's a lot more optimism in Chapel Hill, and Butch Davis should lead his young Tar Heels to a 4th straight victory in series. But there are enough holes in UNC 2ndary for Duke QB Lewis (19 TDP) to go down firing.
(06-N. Car. 45-DUKE 44...N.18-16 N.32/200 D.27/103 D.21/36/2/291 N.20/31/1/253 N.2 D.0)
(06-Unc -7 45-44 05-UNC -21' 24-21 04-Unc -6' 40-17...SR: North Carolina 54-35-4)
VANDERBILT 26 - Wake Forest 21--Although Commodores off painful, come-from-ahead 25-24 loss at Tennessee (Vandy was outscored 16-0 in 4th), still favor highly-motivated 'Dores, who'll become bowl eligible with their 1st-non losing season since '82 with victory here. WF has defeated only defenseless Duke and Navy on road TY, and doubt Deacons clever field general Skinner will find his mojo vs. an aggressive, seasoned Vandy defense (only 19 ppg in last 5 home games) that disguises its schemes well.
(05-Vanderbilt +8' 24-20...SR: Vanderbilt 7-3)
NORTH CAROLINA STATE 20 - Maryland 13--Winner likely headed to minor bowl, while loser will miss out on postseason. Maryland (fewer than 100 YR in 3 of last 4) having a hard time establishing ground game behind its paper-thin OL. A measured vote to N.C. State & versatile soph RB Eugene, although poor decisions by volatile jr. QB Evans (2 TDP, 5 ints. in last 2 games) could prove Wolfpack's undoing.
(06-MARY. 26-Ncsu 20...N.17-11 M.41/165 N.38/154 N.15/26/2/145 M.7/9/0/115 M.1 N.1)
(06-MARY. -2 26-20 05-NCS -3 20-14 04-Ncs +2' 13-3...SR: North Carolina St. 30-29-4)
Cincinnati 37 - SYRACUSE 10--First-year Bearcat HC Brian Kelly a pointspread dynamo, going 25-7-3 against line last 2+ seasons at C. Michigan & Cincy. Hard-pressed to come up with compelling reasons to support Syracuse & its floundering West Coast attack, which hasn't produced more than 2 TDs in any of last 7 games. Not much home-field edge for Orange at Carrier Dome these days.
(06-CINCY 17-Syr. 3...C.16-12 C.42/147 S.31/61 C.13/18/2/205 S.13/29/0/119 C.0 S.0)
(06-CINCY -6' 17-3 05-Cincy +5' 22-16 04-SYR. +2' 19-7...SR: Syracuse 4-3)
SOUTH CAROLINA 24 - Clemson 23--Now that deflated Clemson has been knocked out of ACC title game with last-minute 20-17 home upset loss vs. Boston College, recommend rested, 6-5 South Carolina, whose clever mentor Spurrier has had extra time to scheme. Like '06, 'Cocks 6-3 sr. QB Mitchell (290+ YP last 4 starts) has been steady since returning from bench. Tigers' productive triggerman Harper won't easily find open targets vs. Carolina 2ndary (SEC-best 163 ypg; 54%, 13 ints.). Also, kicking edge goes to Cocks' strong-legged PK/P Succop (29 of 37 FGs L1+Ys; 42-yd. avg.).
(06-S. Car. 31-CLEM. 28...S.28-15 S.35/208 C.33/181 S.24/37/3/284 C.13/19/1/191 S.1 C.1)
(06-Usc +5' 31-28 05-Clem. -3 13-9 04-CLEM. -3 29-7...SR: Clemson 63-37-2)
Buffalo 27 - KENT STATE 19--Kent State 4th-team QB Jon Brown last week showed why he was buried on depth chart, completing just 11 of 27 passes with 0 TDs and 4 ints. at Temple. Conversely, Buffalo QB Drew Willy has completed 67% this season, and Bulls are significantly improved on defense and special teams in upwardly-mobile HC Turner Gill's second (and last?) season in Buffalo. Flash ace RB Eugene Jarvis was held to just 57 YR last week, as now defenses can stack to contain the jitterbug Jarvis as a result of Brown's passing problems.
(06-BUF. 41-Kent St. 14...K.16-15 B.34/176 K.34/103 K.18/34/2/195 B.14/20/1/193 B.1 K.3)
(06-BUF. +15' 41-14 05-Buf. +7 10-6 04-Ksu -8 33-7...SR: Kent State 8-7)
EAST CAROLINA 39 - Tulane 23--Green Wave RB Matt Forte powered for another 194 yards and 5 TDs (now up to 2007 YR & 22) last week vs. defenseless Rice. But ECU (allowing 3.95 ypc) is bigger and tougher up front than the Owls, and the offensively better-balanced Pirates were scoring 42 ppg in C-USA games TY until uncharacteristic 26-7 road loss at Marshall two weeks ago. (04-EAST CAROLINA -3' 27-25...SR: East Carolina 6-2)
Tennessee 37 - KENTUCKY 28--Since SEC East frontrunner UT (wins tie-breaker with UGA) managed to escape in 25-24 come-back thriller vs. Vandy, expect error-free Vols (SEC-low 12 giveaways) to extend their 22-game win streak vs. Kentucky squad that has dropped 3 of last 4. UT's highly-efficient,untouched sr. QB Ainge (sacked only thrice in 391 attempts, 65%, 20 TDs, 5 ints.) makes a few more big plays than Wildcats slipping star passer Woodson, who failed to generate a TD in final 3 Qs of disappointing 24-13 setback at Georgia.
(06-TENN. 17-Ky. 12...K.24-23 K.30/128 T.34/96 K.26/39/0/282 T.19/33/0/240 T.1 K.0)
(06-TENN. -20' 17-12 05-Tenn. -9 27-8 04-TENN. -23' 37-31...SR: Tennessee 70-23-9)
OHIO 31 - Miami-Ohio 17--Rested Ohio U. and sr. star RB Kalvin McRae (162 ypg rushing & 11 rush TDs last 5 games; career 4286 YR & 48 TDs) should be highly motivated in final game at Peden Stadium. Bobcats will say goodbye to 17 seniors (14 in two-deep) against rival Miami-O. squad that has its spot in MAC Championship all locked up. RedHawk offense doesn't convert yards into points as well as it should (107th in scoring at 19 ppg), and QB Daniel Raudabaugh is coming off a 3-int. game in unimpressive 7-0 win at home against Akron. Bobcat seniors secure 6th victory & gain bowl-eligibility.
(06-Ohio 34-MIAMI-O. 24...M.19-16 O.44/304 M.26/128 M.20/36/1/180 O.10/17/1/133 O.2 M.2)
(06-Ohio -3 34-24 05-Miami -9 38-7 04-MIAMI -19 40-20...SR: Miami-Ohio 51-30-2)
Utah 25 - BYU 22--Annual "Beehive Boot" battles (last two decided on final play!) even more exciting to locals than Oprah's recent Osmonds reunion show. And slight edge to hot Utah (covered last 6 TY), thanks to better-balanced "O," playmaking QB B. Johnson, and "D" that's allowed just one TD (and that came after a TO vs. New Mexico) in last 14 Qs of play. Well-defined series trends (dog 9-1 last 10; visitor 12-3 last 15) further support Ute argument.
(06-Byu 33-UTAH 31...B.27-26 U.33/98 B.24/54 U.25/41/0/376 B.28/44/0/375 B.0 U.0)
(06-Byu -3' 33-31 05-Utah +10 41-34 (OT) 04-UTAH -20 52-21...SR: Utah 49-29-4)
MEMPHIS 37 - Smu 22--Jelling Memphis (won & covered 4 of last 5) headed to minor bowl, while 1-10 SMU just playing out string for lame-duck HC Phil Bennett. In their final home game, Tigers' trigger-happy sr. QB Hankins (1771 YP in last 5 games) & sr. RB Doss (168 YR last week) will go out with a bang against pliable Pony defense that's yielding nearly 300 ypg passing & more than 5 ypc. (DNP...SR: Memphis 1-0)
Tulsa 38 - RICE 36--Visiting Golden Hurricane looking to sew up spot in C-USA title game. Rice's defense might be too weak to keep former mentor Graham from achieving that goal. But without a reliable ground hammer to complement star sr. QB Paul Smith (3886 YP & 34 TDP!), tough for visiting Tulsa to keep Owl QB Clement (18 TDP & 6 rush scores in just last 5 games) from trading points.
(06-Rice 41-TULSA 38 (OT)...T.26-18 T.52/260 R.33/147 T.17/29/1/308 R.14/37/0/209 R.0 T.3)
(06-Rice +14 41-38 (OT) 05-Tulsa -7 41-21 04-TULSA +1 39-22...SR: Rice 7-4-1)
UCLA 24 - Oregon 23--Not sure that UCLA can do enough to save Karl Dorrell's job if skittery 4th-string QB Rashaan at controls. But Bruins have displayed a circle-the-wagons mentality in recent years, especially at Rose Bowl, where they're 18-5 vs. number last 23 and unbeaten vs. line last 5 as dog. Oregon "O" just not the same with Brady Leaf in at QB for the injured Dennis Dixon, and not interested laying any points with Ducks after their national title dreams evaporated in Tucson.
(06-OREGON 30-Ucla 20...O.21-17 O.43/256 U.30/104 O.11/22/1/148 U.16/31/1/112 O.1 U.0)
(06-OREGON -9' 30-20 04-Ucla +7 34-26...SR: UCLA 38-22)
AUBURN 20 - Alabama 19--Now that number rising following Bama's shocking 21-14 home loss vs. UL Monroe, will take inflated price with angry, embarrassed, ridiculed Tide squad itchin' to end 5-game series losing streak. Auburn QB Cox's self-confidence waning again (4 ints. vs. Georgia; SEC-low 9 TDP), and his run-oriented, undynamic attack (24 pts. or fewer in 12 of past 13 vs. BCS conference foes) won't uncharacteristically erupt vs. a fired-up Bama defense. If Tide's usually-effective QB J.P. Wilson maintains his poise, Saban's squad hangs close again (all 5 losses TY by TD or fewer). Bama 8-2-2 as TD+ road dog since '97. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-Auburn 22-ALABAMA 15...Al.18-14 Au.40/124 Al.30/112 Al.18/33/1/252 Au.6/14/0/137 Au.1 Al.3)
(06-Auburn -3 22-15 05-AUBURN -7 28-18 04-Auburn -10' 21-13...SR: Alabama 38-32-1)
Georgia 30 - GEORGIA TECH 14--Lack of success against despised Georgia, which has captured last 6 in series, a major reason why Tech HC Chan Gailey on tenterhooks in Atlanta. Will a win save his job? Maybe, but that's easier said than done against burgeoning Bulldogs, who are riding 5-game 2007 win streak. Eager to lay cheap price with UGa's blossoming soph QB Stafford & revelatory RS frosh RB Moreno (766 YR & 9 TDs in last 5 games). Bulldogs won and covered last 3 visits here.
(06-GA. 15-Ga. Tech 12...U.18-12 T.35/146 U.37/84 U.16/29/0/171 T.6/22/2/42 U.1 T.1)
(06-GEORGIA -2' 15-12 05-Georgia -4 14-7 04-GEORGIA -15 19-13...SR: Georgia 58-36-5)
IDAHO 27 - Utah State 20--In the WAC equivalent of a Democratic Presidential debate where only Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel show up, we're tempted to jump on USU bandwagon (such as it is) that's recruiting new riders after Ags broke 16-game losing streak last week. But there are a few more difference-makers (such as RB D. Jackson & CB Franks) on Idaho side.
(06-Idaho 41-UTAH ST. 21...U.22-18 I.35/128 U.35/119 I.10/20/0/188 U.19/27/2/186 I.1 U.1)
(06-Idaho -2' 41-21 05-IDAHO +2 27-13 04-USU -11' 14-7...SR: Idaho 16-15-2)
FLORIDA 42 - Florida State 24--Sure, FSU is a rare DD road dog (1-1 since '97). But believe explosive Florida (43 ppg) eventually covers impost behind super-soph Heisman hopeful Tebow (1st QB in NCAA history with at least 20 TDs both passing & rushing in same season) welcoming back versatile, speedy WR Harvin (45 grabs; missed last 2 games with sinus condition). Conversely, expect 'Noles up-and-down QB Weatherford (3 ints. in '06 tilt) to be on downer in "The Swamp," since his play-action passes rendered mostly ineffective again with stodgy ground attack stymied by UF's run-stuffing front 7 (just 99 ypg, 3.0 ypc).
(06-Fla. 21-FLA. ST. 14...U.16-11 U.32/105 S.18/46 U.21/35/0/283 S.18/43/3/189 U.1 S.0)
(06-Fla. -9 21-14 05-FLA. -4 34-7 04-Fla. +7 20-13...SR: Florida 30-19-2)
OKLAHOMA 37 - Oklahoma State 27--With OU likely needing a win to clinch the Big XII South (unless Texas loses), superior defensive personnel of Sooners should get them there...but not before 60 minutes of "bedlam" have expired. OSU's offense has become unflappable (39 ppg last 5) since 6-3 soph Zac Robinson began executing the Cowboy spread with aplomb. And the OU defense continues to have periodic lapses at inopportune times. Sooners' hopes for a shot at the BCS title game now gone; check status of QB Bradford (concussion).
(06-Okla. 27-OKLA. ST. 21...S.20-19 U.47/238 S.39/119 S.17/31/0/243 U.7/11/0/77 U.0 S.1)
(06-Okla. -5' 27-21 05-OKLA. -19' 42-14 04-Okla. -13' 38-35...SR: Oklahoma 78-15-7)
Nevada 33 - SAN JOSE STATE 27--Be careful before laying too many points with Nevada, which has been involved in a series of hair-raisers in '07. And SJSU a lot more competent at home (8-1 vs. line since LY), where hot QB Tafralis has passed for 300+ yards in all four games TY. But big balance edge owned by Chris Ault's Wolf Pack Pistol, featuring slamming RB Lippincott (5.6 ypc), and Nevada needs win to keep flickering bowl hopes alive.
(06-NEVADA 23-Sjsu 7...N.25-13 N.55/230 S.27/162 N.20/28/1/178 S.10/22/1/77 N.1 S.2)
(06-NEVADA -13 23-7 05-Nevada -3' 30-23 04-NEVADA -14 42-24...SR: Nevada 12-7-2)
Ball State 30 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 23--NIU hasn't quit under vet HC Joe Novak, as young team has covered last two following humiliating 70-pt. defensive "effort" against Toledo. Husky soph RB Justin Anderson has gained 128 ypg rushing in last 9 games, and QB torch has been passed from sr. Dan Nicholson to promising soph Ryan Morris (21 of 35 for 206 YP & 2 TDs last week). Ball State is 13-3 vs. the number last 16 on the road, but only two of those games were double-digit Cardinal wins.
(06-N. Ill. 40-BALL ST. 28...N.24-21 N.41/358 B.26/78 B.29/40/0/307 N.20/27/0/252 N.1 B.1)
(06-Niu -6' 40-28 05-Bsu +29 31-17 04-Niu -20' 38-31 (OT)...SR: Ball State 18-14-2)
*MARSHALL 27 - Uab 19--Don't quite trust Marshall defense (447 ypg; ranks 103rd) to cover double digits against UAB HC Neil Callaway's hard-trying Blazers. Marshall QB Bernard Morris has cooled considerably in second half of season, tossing only 3 TD passes in last 4 games after throwing at least 2 in 6 straight. The previous two meetings in series have both been hotly contested.
(06-Marshall 31-UAB 24...M.21-19 M.46/317 U.28/137 U.18/30/2/205 M.9/12/2/156 M.0 U.0)
(06-Marshall +6 31-24 05-MARSHALL +3 20-19...SR: Marshall 2-0)
FRESNO STATE 31 - Kansas State 25--KSU not exactly rallying down stretch, as ongoing defensive breakdowns (Big XII scouts alarmed at number of missed assignments and improper alignments) contributing mightily to late-season fade. And Fresno good enough to capitalize, especially with "bye" week providing necessary rest that key Bulldog weapons RB R. Matthews & TE Pascoe needed to get back in action. TV-ESPN
(04-Fresno State +12' 45-21...SR: Fresno State 1-0)
NEW MEXICO 23 - Unlv 19--Not sure what to make of UNLV announcement that HC Sanford will return in '08, as Rebs (7th straight loss) didn't exactly respond positively to the news in last week's sleepwalk at TCU. But with QB Porterie enduring a bit of a sophomore slump, low-variance UNM not offering much value itself lately (no covers last 5). Ultra-competitive recent series history suggests generous points worth considering.
(06-N. Mex. 39-UNLV 36 (OT)...U.17-14 N.39/112 U.29/84 U.18/33/2/295 N.13/27/1/168 N.0 U.2)
(06-Unm -2' 39-36 (OT) 05-UNM -15 24-22 04-Unm +2' 24-20...SR: New Mexico 8-6)
Washington State 29 - WASHINGTON 27--Will Morley Safer and the 60 Minutes crew show up in Pullman to investigate Wazzu's 8-TO meltdown vs. Oregon State? Still, Bill Doba's Cougar "D" has shown enough in recent weeks to suggest it won't get run over by U-Dub RBs as did fading Cal last week. And wouldn't want to count on Husky backup QB Bonnell (just 7 of 19 vs. Golden Bears) to extend Apple Cup margin if Jake Locker unavailable again.
(06-Wash. 35-WSU 32...S.26-14 U.31/109 S.31/102 S.32/54/0/328 U.14/27/2/271 U.0 S.1)
(06-Wash. +8' 35-32 05-Wsu -3 26-22 04-WSU -12 28-25...SR: Washington 64-29-6)
*WESTERN MICHIGAN 27 - Temple 23--Temple, which was 4-42 SU the last four years, last week logged it's 4th victory of 2007 against Kent State. Look for remarkable turnaround to continue as Owls catch Western Michigan possibly still celebrating its upset at Iowa. Broncos managed to avoid turnovers and played perhaps their best defensive game of the season at Kinnick Stadium against the Hawkeyes, but hard-trying 2007 Temple defense is a much better unit than the one that yielded 41 points in last year's visit to Kalamazoo. Owls' frosh RB Daryl Robinson (17 carries for 105 yds. vs. Kent) gives Temple a lift.
(06-W. MICH. 41-Tem. 7...W.15-12 W.34/151 T.29/9 W.15/26/0/143 T.12/26/3/140 W.1 T.1)
(06-WMU -30 41-7 05-Wmu -3' 19-16...SR: Western Michigan 5-0)
*BOSTON COLLEGE 33 - Miami-Florida 13--Motivation a major ? for BC, which has already bagged a spot in ACC title game after last week's hard-fought win at Clemson. Want no part of money-burning Miami bunch that's just 11-24 vs. spread since start of 2005, however. Hurricanes have lost 5 of last 6 SU, as their offense is mostly inept, while their once-proud defense playing with little passion. TV--ESPN
(06-MIAMI 17-Bos. Col. 14...10-10 M.34/66 B.25/24 M.13/26/3/181 B.17/34/1/169 M.1 B.1)
(06-MIAMI-FLORIDA +4 17-14...SR: Miami-Florida 23-3)
*Virginia Tech 19 - VIRGINIA 10--Winner earns spot in next week's ACC title game. Can't sell host Cavaliers short, as they have extra week of prep and a knack for pulling out close games TY (6 of UVa's 9 wins have come by total of 12 pts.!). The stout defenses figure to hold sway in this matchup, so "under" might be best percentage play. Slightly lean to visiting Tech, as its complementary QBs, pocket-passing jr. Glennon & mobile true frosh T. Taylor, have a few more weapons at their disposal.
(06-VA. TECH 17-Va. 0...T.14-5 T.45/156 U.23/46 T.12/18/1/146 U.10/21/1/66 T.0 U.1)
(06-TECH -17 17-0 05-Tech -7 52-14 04-TECH -3' 24-10...SR: Virginia Tech 46-37-5)
*STANFORD 24 - Notre Dame 17--We'd bet even Digger Phelps isn't convinced last week's win vs. lowly Duke is any sort of late-season "buy" signal for ND. Despite that result, their shaky OL, lack of playmakers, and suspect "D" remain tangible negatives for Irish. Rested Stanford has at least progressed noticeably for Jim Harbaugh in '07, and Cardinal arsenal better stocked this week with return of big-play WR Sherman from 1-game suspension.
(06-N. DAME 31-Stan. 10...N.29-14 N.39/204 S.31/72 N.27/38/0/232 S.10/18/1/154 N.0 S.0)
(06-UND -29' 31-10 05-Und -15' 38-31 04-UND -5 23-15...SR: Notre Dame 15-6)
*Tcu 29 - SAN DIEGO STATE 23--We're not going to argue with SDSU critics who maintain Aztecs didn't beat much in their 4 wins this season. But SDSU "D" might not be as vulnerable vs. the more-conventional TCU attack as it was vs. Air Force's hybrid shotgun/option that gained almost 4/10 of a mile in last week's blowout. Remember, Frogs have covered only once on road TY, and Aztec QB O'Donnell has the wheels to neutralize TCU's Blake/Ortiz pass-rush duo.
(06-TCU 52-San Diego St. 0...T.30-6 T.49/275 S.24/31 T.22/26/0/349 S.11/25/2/56 T.1 S.0)
(06-TCU -17 52-0 05-Tcu -6' 23-20...SR: TCU 2-0)
ADDED GAMES
SOUTHERN MISS 29 - Arkansas State 23--Host Eagles are just 1-3 SU & vs. spread last 4 at Hattiesburg. ASU's indomitable soph QB Leonard (game-winning TDP on final play of game vs. UNT last week), top-notch soph RB Arnold, and scrappy defense find ways to keep Indians hanging around.
(05-Southern Miss -16' 31-19 (New Orleans Bowl)...SR: Southern Miss 6-3)
*LA.-LAFAYETTE 30 - La.-Monroe 28--Monroe's upset of Alabama sets up HC Charlie Weatherbie's Warhawks for a possible letdown against rival Lafayette this week. While Monroe RB Calvin Dawson figures to get his yards against yielding Lafayette defensive front, Ragin' Cajun counterpart Tyrell Fenroy has 363 YR in Lafayette's last 3 games. Although jr. QB Desormeaux reinjured his clavicle last week, sr. backup Connor Morel keyed the victory by completing 12 of 15 passes.
(06-Mon. 39-LAF. 20...L.24-16 M.33/173 L.41/173 M.11/18/0/244 L.22/42/3/189 M.1 L.0)
(06-Ulm +3 39-20 05-Ull +2' 54-21 04-ULM -4 13-10...SR: La.-Monroe 21-20)
*Florida Atlantic 30 - Florida Intl. 23--FIU losing streak now at 22 (Golden Panthers, seeking to avoid two straight winless seasons, host North Texas next week). QB Rusty Smith (21 TDP) and the Fla. Atlantic offense should win the day, but FIU now appears to have enough seasoned athletes on defense and just enough QBing (RS frosh Younger 2 TDP, 1 TDR last week) to make a game of it. (at Dolphin Stadium)
(06-Fla. Atl. 31-Fla. Intl. 0...A.22-13 A.45/142 I.19/50 A.15/22/0/219 I.15/31/1/153 A.0 I.0)
(06-Fau -4 31-0 at Dolphin Stad. 05-FIU -1' 52-6 04-Fau -13' 17-10 at DS...SR: FAU 4-1)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
BOISE STATE by 7 over Hawaii (Friday)
TENNESSEE by 9 over Kentucky
OHIO U. by 14 over Miami-Ohio
GEORGIA by 16 over Georgia Tech
posted by phantom
Nov. 20 2007 2:31pm -
0 likes
ncaaf trends
Tuesday, November 20th
Added Game:
Middle Tennessee State at Troy, 7:00 EST ESPN2
Mid Tenn State: 6-1 Under off a loss as a favorite
Troy: 5-1 ATS off a straight up win
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Thursday, November 22nd
USC at Arizona State, 8:00 EST ESPN
USC: 0-6 ATS away off BB wins
Arizona State: 16-5 ATS at home off a road win
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Friday, November 23rd
Central Michigan at Akron, 11:00am EST ESPNU
Central Michigan: 7-0 ATS off a loss
Akron: 2-10 ATS off a conference game
Nebraska at Colorado, 12:00 EST ABC
Nebraska: 16-4 ATS off ATS losses in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Colorado: 0-8 ATS off a road game
Mississippi at Mississippi State, 12:30 EST
Mississippi: 9-2 Under off a SU loss / ATS win
Mississippi State: 1-8 ATS at home off a loss
Wyoming at Colorado State, 2:00 EST
Wyoming: 1-12 ATS off a conference loss
Colorado State: 30-16 ATS off BB ATS wins
Toledo at Bowling Green, 2:30 EST ESPNU
Toledo: 6-1 Over vs. conference opponents
Bowling Green: 1-6 ATS off BB games scoring 31+ points
Arkansas at LSU, 2:30 EST CBS
Arkansas: 14-4 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points
LSU: 7-21 ATS at home in November
Texas at Texas A&M, 3:30 EST ABC
Texas: 6-0 ATS after allowing 375+ passing yards
Texas A&M: 0-6 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games
Boise State at Hawaii, 9:00 EST ESPN2
Boise State: 8-1 ATS off 3+ conference wins
Hawaii: 31-15 Over vs. conference opponents
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Saturday, November 24th
South Florida at Pittsburgh, 12:00 EST
South Florida: 0-6 ATS off BB conference wins
Pittsburgh: 9-2 Under off a SU loss / ATS win
Connecticut at West Virginia, 12:00 EST
Connecticut: 14-3 ATS off an Under
West Virginia: 5-1 Under off BB wins
UTEP at Central Florida, 12:00 EST
UTEP: 1-9 ATS in November
Central Florida: 6-1 Under off BB games with a combined score of 60+ points
Missouri at Kansas, 12:00 EST
Missouri: 7-1 Over off a win
Kansas: 10-0 ATS this season
Duke at North Carolina, 12:00 EST
Duke: 1-8 ATS off 3+ ATS losses
North Carolina: 10-3 Under off an Over
Wake Forest at Vanderbilt, 12:00 EST
Wake Forest: 6-1 ATS off BB Overs
Vanderbilt: 7-0 Under off a conference game
Maryland at NC State, 12:00 EST
Maryland: 10-3 ATS off ATS losses in 4 of their last 5 games
NC State: 1-8 ATS off 3+ conference games
Cincinnati at Syracuse, 12:00 EST
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS off an Under
Syracuse: 2-8 ATS as an underdog
Clemson at South Carolina, 12:00 EST
Clemson: 6-1 Under off ATS wins in 4 of their last 5 games
South Carolina: 6-16 ATS at home off BB ATS losses
Buffalo at Kent State, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 12-4 ATS off an Under
Kent State: 0-7 ATS off 4+ losses
Tulane at East Carolina, 1:00 EST
Tulane: 6-16 ATS off an Over
East Carolina: 10-2 ATS off an Under
Tennessee at Kentucky, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 7-1 ATS off BB home games
Kentucky: 6-1 Under off BB road games
Miami OH at Ohio U, 2:00 EST
Miami OH: 5-1 ATS off an Under
Ohio U: 3-12 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Utah at BYU, 2:00 EST
Utah: 7-0 ATS off 3+ conference games
BYU: 11-2 Over off a conference win by 10+ points
SMU at Memphis, 2:00 EST
SMU: 7-1 Under off a conference home loss
Memphis: 1-6 ATS off a home win
Tulsa at Rice, 3:00 EST
Tulsa: 1-8 ATS after scoring 37+ points
Rice: 28-10 ATS as a home underdog
Oregon at UCLA, 3:30 EST
Oregon: 11-3 Over as a road favorite of 7 points or less
UCLA: 16-4 ATS as a home underdog
Alabama at Auburn, 3:30 EST
Alabama: 4-14 ATS off an Under
Auburn: 6-1 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points
Georgia at Georgia Tech, 3:30 EST
Georgia: 17-6 ATS vs. ACC opponents
Georgia Tech: 1-8 ATS off BB Overs
Utah State at Idaho, 3:30 EST
Utah State: 5-1 ATS in road games
Idaho: 0-7 ATS at home off a road loss
Florida State at Florida, 3:30 EST
Florida State: 4-16 ATS away off 3+ conference games
Florida: 6-0 ATS at home off a home game
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 3:30 EST
Oklahoma State: 4-12 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points
Oklahoma: 6-1 ATS off a loss as a road favorite
Nevada at San Jose State, 4:00 EST
Nevada: 11-2 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
San Jose State: 20-3 Under vs. conference opponents
Ball State at Northern Illinois, 4:00 EST
Ball State: 10-2 ATS in road games
Northern Illinois: 2-9 ATS off a road game
UAB at Marshall, 4:30 EST
UAB: 6-14 ATS off a conference game
Marshall: 6-1 Under vs. conference opponents
Kansas State at Fresno State, 5:00 EST
Kansas State: 30-16 ATS off a conference loss
Fresno State: 0-6 ATS off a road loss
UNLV at New Mexico, 5:30 EST
UNLV: 3-11 ATS as a road underdog
New Mexico: 5-1 Under off a conference game
Washington State at Washington, 6:30 EST
Washington State: 12-1 ATS after forcing 0 turnovers
Washington: 1-8 ATS at home off 3+ conference games
Temple at Western Michigan, 7:00 EST
Temple: 8-2 Under as an underdog
Western Michigan: 8-0 ATS off a win as an underdog
Miami FL at Boston College, 7:30 EST
Miami FL: 0-7 ATS off an Over
Boston College: 6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points
Virginia Tech at Virginia, 7:30 EST
Virginia Tech: 11-2 ATS in road games
Virginia: 8-19 ATS after scoring 24+ first-half points
Notre Dame at Stanford, 8:00 EST
Notre Dame: 27-11 Over after allowing 14 points or less
Stanford: 2-9 ATS in home games
TCU at San Diego State, 9:00 EST
TCU: 9-1 ATS off 3+ conference games
San Diego State: 5-15 ATS off ATS wins in 3 of their last 4 games
Added Games:
Arkansas State at Southern Miss, 3:00 EST
Arkansas State: 7-20 ATS off a home win
Southern Miss: 26-11 Under off a road game
Louisiana Monroe at Louisiana Lafayette, 7:00 EST
LA Monroe: 12-3 Over off an ATS win
LA Lafayette: 2-9 ATS off BB ATS wins
Florida Atlantic at Florida International, 7:00 EST
Florida Atl: 2-8 ATS in November
Florida Int: 5-1 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
posted by phantom
Nov. 20 2007 2:40pm -
0 likes
nfl trends
Thursday, November 22nd
Green Bay at Detroit, 12:30 EST FOX
Green Bay: 10-2 ATS in road games
Detroit: 7-13 ATS off a home game
NY Jets at Dallas, 4:15 EST CBS
NY Jets: 1-6 ATS off BB ATS wins
Dallas: 10-1 Over at home off 4+ wins
Indianapolis at Atlanta, 8:15 EST NFL
Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS off BB ATS losses
Atlanta: 11-25 ATS at home off a home game
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Sunday, November 25th
Denver at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Denver: 4-14 ATS vs. NFC North opponents
Chicago: 14-4 ATS vs. AFC West opponents
Tennessee at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 4-1 ATS playing on artificial turf
Cincinnati: 2-10 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Buffalo at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 5-1 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Jacksonville: 15-4 Over off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Oakland at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 8-25 ATS off 3+ ATS losses
Kansas City: 22-10 Under vs. conference opponents
Houston at Cleveland, 1:00 EST
Houston: 1-8 ATS away off a home game
Cleveland: 11-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points
Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 15-5 Over off a home win
St. Louis: 18-5 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Minnesota at NY Giants, 1:00 EST
Minnesota: 14-3 Under off a straight up win
NY Giants: 21-40 ATS in November
New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 EST
New Orleans: 11-3 Over as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Carolina: 0-6 ATS off a road loss
Washington at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Washington: 5-1 ATS off a division loss
Tampa Bay: 1-8 ATS off BB wins
San Francisco at Arizona, 4:05 EST
San Francisco: 1-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
Arizona: 9-1 Over off BB games scoring 25+ points
Baltimore at San Diego, 4:15 EST
Baltimore: 0-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Diego: 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points
Philadelphia at New England, 8:15 EST NBC
Philadelphia: 3-7 ATS off a home win
New England: 8-1 ATS off a straight up win
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Monday, November 26th
Miami at Pittsburgh, 8:30 EST ESPN
Miami: 0-9 ATS off a road loss
Pittsburgh: 10-2 ATS at home on Monday nights
posted by phantom
Nov. 20 2007 2:40pm -
0 likes
College Football: Rivalry Motivation
by Scott Spreitzer
You’ve probably heard the gambling myth that college football pointspreads get stronger as the season progresses. Once all the teams have played 10 or 11 games, there supposedly aren’t any secrets left.
I do agree that everybody knows the teams better. So, in that sense November lines are more accurate than September lines. But, oddsmakers have shown over the years that they haven’t been able to properly capture all the emotions that go into late season football. These emotional factors are so great that they lead to some of the easiest pointspread covers of the entire season.
In a sense, the lines are better and worse at the same time! Late season pointspreads capture the stat and personnel differences pretty well. But, they do a horrible job of factoring in the emotions properly.
I’d argue that these lines are WORSE (thanks to faulty public perception) than those we see in September!
Let me show you some examples from games played after Thanksgiving last season. These are obviously “late season†games if they’re after Turkey Day.
Texas A&M (+13) beat Texas outright 12-7
South Florida (+21) beat West Virginia outright 24-19
South Carolina (+5) beat Clemson outright 31-28
Wake Forest (+1) beat Maryland outright 38-24
Purdue (+18) lost a heartbreaker to Hawaii 42-35
UCLA (+11) beat USC outright 13-9
Oregon State (+9) beat Hawaii outright 38-35
Rutgers (+10) lost a heartbreaker to West Virginia 41-39
All of those underdogs put up great performances. The list includes four dogs of more than a touchdown that won outright, and a couple of others who just missed. It also includes some very big name favorites, like USC, Texas, and West Virginia (twice). The public really took a bath in the Purdue contest.
But don’t get the idea that late season football is only about upsets:
Nebraska (-13) crushed Colorado 37-14
Rutgers (-16) slaughtered Syracuse 38-7
Louisville (-11) pounded Pittsburgh 48-24
Boise State (-2) nailed Nevada 38-7
Those were all double-digit covers for motivated favorites against teams who lacked competitive fire.
You see, that’s the whole key to handicapping late season college football action. Which team is going to have competitive fire? Which team is going to be flat because they’re looking ahead to a bigger game down the road, or because they’ve already mentally finished their seasons. These edges can be worth two or even three touchdowns.
And there’s nothing the oddsmaker can do about it! They’re trying to balance the books based on how the public is going to bet anyway. The public bets based on what they know about the teams rather than the possible influences of competitive fire. As a result, late season college football lines will ALWAYS be way off. Yet, the books continue to cash the majority of "John Q. Public's" wagers.
Here are keys to look for when trying to find the team with competitive fire in late season games:
Favorites who have already clinched what they need to clinch will often be flat in these late season games. They’ll be priced as champions, but they’re likely to have one of their least motivated efforts of the season. They’re thinking about a conference championship game coming up, or the bowl they’ve already clinched.
Favorites who have something to play for, but are facing a bowl caliber opponent will often have trouble living up to expectations. They won’t necessarily be flat. But they will play a bit too nervous and conservative for their own good. Their opponents will have a ton of competitive fire because they’ll have a chance to play spoiler against a big name team. Look at how many of those upsets last year featured bowl bound underdogs. A&M beat Texas on the road. South Florida beat West Virginia on the road.
Favorites who have a history of running up the score on weak opposition will run away and hide from non-bowl teams late in the year. The lesser teams get demoralized early in the game, and just throw in the towel. The favorites will keep piling on the points, particularly if it’s “senior day†in a home finale.
It’s all about competitive fire. In some games you’ll uncover dogs that are ready to spring an upset and throw a monkey wrench in the BCS process. In other games, you’ll find favorites who might have a high spread covered by halftime on the way to a rout. If you look to go against distracted favorites, while backing talented underdogs, you’ll have no trouble finding these games.
posted by phantom
Nov. 20 2007 2:41pm -
0 likes
Peter King
Green Bay Packers (9-1) at Detroit Lions (6-4)
Eating habits nationwide change. I know they do in my house. We usually eat Thanksgiving dinner at 2 or 3 if we're home for it, and this year, I've not-so-subtlely pushed dinner back to 4:30ish. I'm not going to miss the first meaningful Lions game since Alex Karras menaced foes at Tiger Stadium ... and I'm not going to miss whatever it is Brett Favre's going to do next.
Packers 23, Lions 10
New York Jets (2-8) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1)
The Bill Parcells Alumni Bowl. One of Parcells' last meaningful picks, Jets pass-rusher Shaun Ellis, chases the no-name Parcells installed at quarterback last year, Tony Romo. I don't like Ellis' chances to leave much of an imprint on the elusive Romo.
Cowboys 34, Jets 13
Indianapolis Colts (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
The sleep-inducing qualities of turkey are overrated, as I learned this week on Wikipedia. There is more tryptophan in cheddar cheese than turkey. Then again, if there was caffeine in turkey we'd still be ready for a nap by about the third Falcon turnover in the third game of a food-and-Heineken Light-filled day. Poor Cris Collinsworth, by the way. Not that he has to miss Thanksgiving with his four children, but that he has to enliven this game for the NFL Network.
Colts 30, Falcons 6
Tennessee Titans (6-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)
Marvin Lewis has coached 75 NFL games. Take a guess what his record is. Nine over .500? Eleven? Try one. He's 38-37, in danger this week of evening the ledger piloting one of the most disappointing teams in the league. I see him preparing for a nice little housecleaning. By the way, Vince Young threw the ball very well in Denver on Monday night. Maybe that quad strain is the best thing that could have happened to his pocket presence.
Titans 19, Bengals 15
Houston Texans (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-4)
I half-expect Elvin Bethea to blindside Brian Sipe in this one. Somehow, Mario Williams chasing Derek Anderson (and not catching him, in my opinion) doesn't conjure up the same visions. This is a game the Browns have to have if they have designs on that sixth playoff seed.
Browns 27, Texans 13
Oakland Raiders (2-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6)
Chiefs have won nine straight in the series. Real killers, there. Whoa. The margins of those nine wins: 7, 3, 7, 1, 6, 4, 4, 11 and 2 points. You get that the recent history, plus Warren Sapp's apt reaming-out of the Raiders' defense, is going to make for another close one in Arrowhead.
Chiefs 20, Raiders 16
Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-8)
The Rams will finish 5-11, may save Scott Lenihan's job and will totally confound draftniks who want them to get in position to pick Howie Long's son to fix their defense. (It's never too early to talk draft, is it?) They also might win this game. They've scored 50 points and had 45 very welcome carries from Steven Jackson in their nice little two-game winning streak ... with both wins coming on the road. This team's not dead.
Seahawks 28, Rams 25
Minnesota Vikings (4-6) at New York Giants (7-3)
"That is a very, very costly loss for us,'' Tom Coughlin said the other day, when it was determined that pass-rusher Mathias Kiwanuka was lost for the year with a broken left fibula. That will matter down the road -- against Chicago and Washington, and certainly in the finale against Tom Brady. But this week, the Giants need roughage to combat the Vikes running game, not a speed-rusher to frustrate the passer.
Giants 16, Vikings 13
Washington Redskins (5-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
This is the fourth Washington-at-Tampa Bay game in the last three years. It's true: The Bucs have played Washington in Raymond James Stadium more in the last three years than they've played any team in the league at home. (Three straight regular-season meetings, plus the 'Skins' 20-17 playoff nailbiter there in '05, when Chris Simms threw the perfect pass in the end zone that Edell Shepherd couldn't hold onto.) "It feels like we're in the NFC East,'' Jon Gruden said the other day. I like Washington, because I'm really starting to like what I see in Jason Campbell.
Redskins 30, Buccaneers 23
New Orleans Saints (4-6) at Carolina Panthers (4-6)
The Saints have lost four, won four, lost two. By rights, they should lose two more, I suppose. But these are the expansionesque Panthers we're talking about, with as bad a quarterback situation as there is in the league. Remember when Vinny Testaverde was a warm and fuzzy story, not a grim reality?
Saints 16, Panthers 12
Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)
I can just see it now. Chris Kelsay jogs onto the field in Jacksonville on Sunday, and Dick Jauron sidles up to him. "Hey,'' Jauron says. "What's that piece of black metal on your neck?" Kelsay, confused, picks it off and starts examining it. Jauron knows immediately what it is. "Shrapnel," he says, "left over from the New England game."
Jaguars 27, Bills 10
San Francisco 49ers (2-8) at Arizona Cardinals (5-5)
The Niners have 10 touchdowns in 10 games. I'm just staying with the average here in what looks fairly certain to be San Francisco's ninth loss in a row.
Cardinals 31, 49ers 13
Denver Broncos (5-5) at Chicago Bears (4-6)
This is the kind of year it is in Chicago: The Bears can't find a quarterback, they traded the wrong running back to the Jets, Bernard Berrian hasn't turned into Willie Gault, their defense lost its bite, Brian Urlacher's back hurts all the time, Mike Brown's hurt again ... and this win could move them within a game of a wild-card spot with three of the last five games at home.
Bears 24, Broncos 20
Baltimore Ravens (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (5-5)
The real question is: How long am I going to be a sucker for the Chargers? If I could count on Kyle Boller to play a B game here, I'd pick Baltimore, but he makes two throws every game that make you say: What in the world led him to THAT decision?
Chargers 23, Ravens 21
Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) at New England Patriots (10-0)
I think Donovan McNabb will play, but getting hurt (sprained ankle, sprained thumb) in November for the fourth time in the last six years leads me to think that Andy Reid will be led to make this inevitable decision after the season: whacking McNabb and going with '07 second-round pick Kevin Kolb.
Patriots 40, Eagles 14
Miami Dolphins (0-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)
I pick a relatively close game not because I think the Steelers won't play well. I think the message from Mike Tomlin will be heard loud and clear, and several times, this week. "Every time you take the field, you've got to come to play,'' Tomlin said the other day. "That's what great teams do.'' I think Miami will play OK down the stretch, in part because Cam Cameron's going to put the kid quarterback, John Beck (only 9-of-22 in his debut at Philly last week), in position to succeed. Success is a relative term on an 0-10 team, but I think Beck's going to have some.
Steelers 27, Dolphins 17
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 21 2007 9:03pm -
0 likes
Scott Spreitzer's NFL 25* Thanksgiving Day Beatdown! *20-8, 71% NFL Run!
I'm taking the points with the Lions. Packers' lines are often slanted a bit, thanks to the public's infatuation with future hall-of-famer, Brett Favre. But now, thanks to Green Bay's incredible start and Detroit's back-to-back losses, the value is squarely on the side of the home pup. First of all, when capping this game, check out GB's schedule. It's been a soft ride, catching mediocre opposition in the right spots for the most part. I give the Pack and especially Favre the respect they deserve, but this may be the first time this season when they are the team in the tough spot. It is the first time they've been road-chalk with Mike McCarthy at the helm. I don't like their small-ish offensive line in this one, matching up against the very capable Cory Redding and Shaun Rogers. One of these two DTs will have to be double-teamed which leaves the other to wreak havoc on the GB passing game. Offensively, Detroit is loaded at WR, giving Kitna four targets to throw to. Green Bay safety Nick Collins is not expected to play and the Packers are short on quality depth in the secondary. I believe Kitna will pick them apart. The Lions have handled Favre in recent seasons. This time, the Lions have the supporting cast to break through with a win over their division rival. Add it up and we have a strong play on the Lions, plus points on Thanksgiving day. Here's to a great and winning holiday.
posted by phantom
Nov. 21 2007 9:04pm -
0 likes
BIG AL's 100% (13-0) 5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH (Thursday)
At 12:30 pm, our 5* NFL Game of the Month is on the Detroit Lions plus the points over Green Bay. On Sunday, the Packers won 31-17 over Carolina, but Green Bay was outgained in yardage by the Panthers, and victorious simply because Carolina turned the ball over four times (vs. zero turnovers by the Pack). Turnovers, of course, are the most random element of football wagering, so Green Bay was indeed fortunate to have won its fifth straight game (and fourth straight ATS). But now, Green Bay falls into two negative systems of mine (2-24 ATS and 0-13 ATS), while Detroit is a play under a 78-43 system off its back to back losses (at Arizona and home vs. the Giants). Specifically, our 78-43 angle plays on winning teams at home off a home loss, if our home team is not favored by 9+ points. And our 13-0 angle plays on certain winning teams at home, who are not favored by 4+ points, if they're matched up against a foe off back to back wins and covers. Detroit has lost its last three meetings with the Packers, and the revenging team is 17-8 ATS since 1980 in Detroit's Turkey Day games. Finally, with such a short work week, Detroit has a huge advantage by playing its previous game at home, and not having to travel. And the Lions are 100% ATS since 1980 on Thanksgiving when coming off a home game. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my College Football Winners on Thursday and Friday.
posted by phantom
Nov. 21 2007 9:04pm -
0 likes
1. Power Sweep Angle Plays:
4 Cleveland (again this week)
3 Dallas
2. Power Sweep Total Plays:
3 Ravens/Chargers Over38.5
3 Texans/Browns Over 51.5
3 49ers/Cards Over 38
2 Redskins/Bucs Under 36.5
2 Bills/Jags Under 36
3. Power Sweep System Play:
Play On any home favorite that beat a division foe by 21 or more as an away favorite last week. 26-9-1 ATS 74% (3-0 ATS TY) This Weeks Play: TAMPA BAY
posted by phantom
Nov. 21 2007 9:05pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Angle of the week = Play Against: TEXAS A&M
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Utah is a wallet-fattening
15-0-1 ATS as a conference dog
versus an .800 < opponent.
3* Texas by 14
4* tenny by 13
5* Utah by 10
UPSET UPSET UPSET UPSET
S CAROLINA over Clemson by 6
3* Denver by 8
4* balt by 3
5* Bills by 10
3* Kc under
4* sd under
5* panthers under
posted by phantom
Nov. 21 2007 9:06pm -
0 likes
Power Play 4* Selections:
4* Mississippi State
4* Colorado State
4* South Florida
4* Missouri (Only if they are an underdog)
4* North Carolina
4* Tulane
4* Miami-Ohio
4* Washington
4* TCU
4* UL-Monroe
4* Florida Atlantic
posted by phantom
Nov. 21 2007 9:06pm -
0 likes
northcoast;
4 Memphis
3 Georgia
3 Marshall
2 Alabama
2 Vandy
2 W. Virg
u d p o w san jose state
4 TAMPA
3 SAN DIEGO
2 G B
2 CLEVE.
posted by phantom
Nov. 21 2007 9:06pm -
0 likes
Big Dogs
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Here are the big dogs for the week . There are six this week ,Arkansas, Utep, Tulane, Rice, FloridaState, MiamiFla.
posted by phantom
Nov. 21 2007 9:08pm -
0 likes
Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
**DETROIT 26 Green Bay (-3.5) 22
09:30 AM Pacific, 22-Nov-07
Detroit is coming off a misleading 10-16 loss to New York in which they out-gained the Giants 6.6 yards per play to 5.2 yppl but were -2 in turnover margin and played poorly in special teams. The Lions are still +5 in turnover margin for the season (Green Bay is also +5) and the Lions have a good chance of beating the 9-1 Packers if they are not hurt by turnovers again. Green Bay is a good team, but they are not as good as their record suggests and the Packers are due for a letdown today. Green Bay applies to a very negative 23-75-3 ATS letdown situation that is based on their good recent play and they also apply to a negative 7-34 ATS situation that plays against divisional road favorites on a winning streak. Detroit has been much better at home this season, out-gaining their opponents 6.0 yppl to 4.7 yppl on this field, so they should have the confidence to win this game. My math model favors Green Bay 4 ½ points but the math would actually favor the Lions using their home game stats only. I’ll take Detroit in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +4 or more..
Thursday Opinions
DALLAS (-14) 33 New York Jets 14
The Jets played well last week in upsetting the Steelers, but Pittsburgh was in a huge letdown situation and Dallas is not. The Cowboys’ offense is simply too good (6.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to 5.2 yppl to an average team) for a horrible Jets’ defense to stop. New York has allowed 5.8 yppl this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and the Jets are especially bad defending the pass (7.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp), so expect Tony Romo and Terrell Owens to have another huge day after combining for 4 touchdowns last week. New York has faced two other good passing teams this season, allowing 10.6 yppp to New England and 9.9 yppp to Cincinnati, and my math model projects 10.0 yppp for the Cowboys in this game. New York has averaged only 4.8 yppl this season and the Jets’ attack is even worse now with Kellen Clemens at quarterback while Dallas has one of the best defensive units in the NFL. My math model favors Dallas by 18 ½ points and there are no situations that apply that suggest a Cowboys’ letdown. I’ll lean with Dallas to show off on national TV.
ATLANTA (+11 ½) 16 Indianapolis 23
Indianapolis is much better defensively this season and that unit ranks among the NFL’s best (4.5 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team), but the Colts offense isn’t as potent with Marvin Harrison injured for most of the season. Payton Manning was averaging 8.3 yards per pass play in the first 3 games with Harrison healthy, but he’s averaged only 6.3 yppp since week 4 when Harrison got hurt and the Colts’ attack has averaged only 5.4 yards per play over those 7 games (against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Harrison is expected to miss this week and while Anthony Gonzalez is doing a good job filling in for Harrison (207 yards on 22 passes thrown to him), 3rd and 4th receivers Aaron Moorehead and Craphonso Thorpe have been horrible in combining for 112 yards on 33 passes thrown to them. The difference between those reserves and having those balls targeted for Harrison is nearly 2 points per game. Atlanta is not too bad defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense), so the Colts aren’t likely to score an abundance of points without Harrison in the lineup (unless a 3rd receivers steps up and starts playing much better). The Falcons’ offense is below average and my math model projects just 234 total yards and 3.9 yppl for them against the Colts’ stout defense, but the math favors Indy by just 6 points overall. Over the last few years the Colts have out-played their stats by about 2 ½ points per game on average, so Indianapolis by 8 ½ points is a better projection for this game. Double-digit road favorites usually have a tough time covering in the NFL and teams with a win percentage of greater than .750 are only 19-39-2 ATS as a road favorite of 10 points or more if they’re coming off a win (teams don’t letdown as big favorites coming off a loss), so I’ll call for a 7 point margin and lean with Atlanta plus the points.
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2007 12:02pm -
0 likes
WAYNE ALLEN ROOOOOT
Chairman - Cowboys
Millionaire - USC
Money Maker - Lions
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2007 12:02pm -
0 likes
BIG AL's ____________5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH_________________ Detroit
Scott Spreitzer________ 25*_____________________________________ Detroit
Dr. Bob._____________________2*_______________________ _________Detroit
lem banker __________________________________________________ _____det
Neri Sports ________________2*________________________________ ___Detroit
Marc Lawrence__________________________________________ ___________Det
Trushel Sports _________20*_________________________________Detro it +3.5
DR CHAD_____________5 unit_________________________________GREEN BAY
CW Winner Phone Picks___cold as ice lately________________________Green Bay
Northcoast __________Top Marq____________________________________G B -3
Northcoast _________Uncle Phi's Play 3______________________________G B -3
Gold Medal Club________15*________________________Green Bay -1.5 First half
Northcoast ___________Reg____________________________________ _G B U 47
VICTOR KING'S_______________3*_____________PACKERS/LIONS UNDER TOTAL
Gold Medal Club ________15*________________________GB OVER 23.5 First half
DR. BOB____________2 Star Selection_________DETROIT 26 Green Bay (-3.5) 22
Burns NFL__________________________________________LIONS (+3 or better)
Kelso Chairmans Club __________10 units______________Detroit +3 v. Green Bay
ppp opinions__________________________________________ _______green bay
ppp opinions__________________________________________ ___green bay over
HighDesertSports__ ____________NFL GOY___________________Lions +3.5 -110
HighDesertSports____________________________GB/DET OVER 23.5 1st half -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ GB/DET OVER 46.5 -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ ________Lions +160 ML
Norm Hitzges______________________________________Green Bay -3 vs Detroit
computer spts___________________comp____GREEN BAY/DETROIT UNDER 46 1/2
Cappers Access_Sport______Favorite Underdog Line_____________________Lions
Northcoast _____________2____________________________________ Dallas -14
Marc Lawrence__________________________________________ __________Boys
Phenom __________________________________________________ ______Dallas
Neri Sports ________________2*________________________________ ___Dallas
CW Winner Phone Picks___cold as ice lately___________________________NY Jets
lem banker __________________________________________________ _____jets
Wunderdog _________________4 units____________________New York Jets +14
Northcoast ___________Reg___________________________________D allas U 47
Gold Medal Club ________15*______________________________Dallas UNDER 48
Lang's picks_____________15 DIME__________________________Dallas Cowboys
Burns NFL_ _____________________________UNDER jets/cowboys (46 or better)
ppp opinions__________________________________________ ___________dallas
ppp opinions__________________________________________ ________dalls over
HighDesertSports_________________________________N YJ/DAL OVER 47.5 -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ ___Jets +8 1st half -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ ________Jets +14 -105
Norm Hitzges_____________________________Double Play--Dallas -14 vs NY Jets
Winning Points Online NFL POD___***BEST BET________Dallas* over NY Jets by 27
Cappers Access_Sport______Favorite Underdog Line__________________Cowboys
Wunderdog__________________4 units_____________________Arizona State +3
dr bob____________________3*___________ Arizona St +3.5, 2* at +3 or worse.
Neri Sports ________________3*________________________________ _Az State
DR CHAD _____________3 units___________________________ARIZONA STATE.
Pork Chop__________________3*__________________________ _______Ariz. St.
Jeff Bonds________________double-dime bet__________________Arizona St. 3.5
Northcoast ___________Reg____________________________________ __U S C -3
Johnathan Stone _________________________________________________U sc -3
Northcoast __________Top Marq__________________________________Usc U 49
Cappers Access_Sport______Favorite Underdog Line_________________Arizona St
ppp opinions__________________________________________ ____________asu
ppp opinions__________________________________________ ________asu under
Kelso Best Bets Club____________10 units___________________Ariz St +3 v. USC
burns college football___________________________OVER usc/asu (51 or better)
Lang's picks_____THURSDAY 25 DIME_____________________USC TROJANS –
(If your man has -3 1/2 then you buy the half and only lay 3)
wsex______________________________________________ _______usc-3 at -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ _________USC -13 -105
HighDesertSports_________________________________ USC/ASU UNDER 49 -105
HighDesertSports_____________NCAA FB GOY___________________USC -3 EVEN
huddle up spts___________________comp___________________Ariz ona State +3'
Gold Medal Club _________15*__________________________________Indy -11.5
Phenom __________________________________________________ _______Indy
DR CHAD_____________5 unit______________________________________INDY.
Wunderdog ____________Comp______________________________Atla nta +11.5
Northcoast ___________Reg____________________________________ _Atl. + 11
Marc Lawrence _________________________________________________A tlanta
Neri Sports ________________1*________________________________ __Atlanta
Wunderdog__________________3 units________________________Atlanta +11.5
lem banker __________________________________________________ _____ata
Northcoast ___________Reg____________________________________ _Alt. U 41
Wunderdog__________________4 units___________________Ata UNDER 41 -110
Gold Medal Club _________15*_______________________________Indy OVER 41
Greg Shaker______________triple-dime bet ________________IND-ATL Over 42.0
Trey Johnson___________ 10*______________________________________Colts
Lang's picks______________5 DIME__________________________ Atlanta Falcons
Lang's picks_____________FREE PICK____________________Indy-Falcons UNDER
Kelso Best Bets Club ____________5 units_______________Atlanta +11.5 v. Indy
ppp opinions__________________________________________ __________atlanta
ppp opinions__________________________________________ _____atlanta under
HighDesertSports_________________________________I NDY/ATL UNDER 41 -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ ________Colts -12 -105
Mike Rose______________________comp______Colts/Atlanta Falcons u41.0 (-110)
Marc Lawrence__________________comp__________________un der Colts-Falcons
arthur ralph spts_________________comp________________________I NDY Colts
Cappers Access_Sport______Favorite Underdog Line____________________Falcons
HighDesertSports__________________________________ ______G.Mason +2 -105
HighDesertSports__________________________________ _______Mia-Oh -3 -105
razor sharp spts__________________comp________MIAMI-OH over South Alabama
tv hotline_______________________comp________________ ______MIAMI-OH -3
easy money-____________________comp_____________SOUTH CAROLINA -2 1/2
dr. vegas_______________________comp__________Villanov a -6.5 over C. Florida
#1 spts________________________comp____________CENTRA L FLORIDA + 6 1/2
Jimmy The Moose________________comp___________________Detroi t Red Wings
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2007 12:05pm -
0 likes
Scott Spreitzer
NFL 25* Thanksgiving Day Beatdown!
Lions
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BIG AL MCMORDIE
5* NFL Game of the Month
Detroit Lions
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DR CHAD
5 units on GREEN BAY and INDY.
3 units on ARIZONA STATE.
FRIDAY.. 3rd 7 unit ever (1-0-1) NEBRASKA +4 and a half.
5 units Mississippi and Texas A & M.
3 units COLORADO ST. and TOLEDO
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Mike Neri Sports
3* Az State
2* Detroit
2* Dallas
1* Atlanta
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Northcoast
2 Dallas -14
Top Usc U 49 Marquee
Top G B -3- Marquee
Reg G B U 47
Reg Atl. + 11-
Reg Dallas U 47
Reg Alt. U 41
Reg U S C -3
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Gold Medal Club
NFL: All rated 15*
Green Bay -1.5 First half
OVER 23.5
Dallas UNDER 48
Indy -11.5
OVER 41
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lem banker
det
jets
atl
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Marc Lawrence
Det
CowBoys
Atlanta
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wunderdog
NFL
Game: New York Jets at Dallas (Thursday 11/22 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on New York Jets +14
Game: Indianapolis at Atlanta (Thursday 11/22 8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +11.5
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110
Ncaa football
Game: U S C at Arizona State (Thursday 11/22 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Arizona State +3
Game: Nebraska at Colorado (Friday 11/23 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nebraska +4
Game: Mississippi at Mississippi State (Friday 11/23 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Mississippi +6.5
Game: Toledo at Bowling Green (Friday 11/23 2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toledo +7
Game: Boise State at Hawaii (Friday 11/23 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boise State +3
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Jeff Bonds
double-dime Arizona St. 3.5
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Greg Shaker
triple-dime IND Over 42.0
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Johnathan Stone
Usc -3
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Trey Johnson
10* Indianapolis
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Dr. Bob
2 Star Selection
**DETROIT 26 Green Bay (-3.5) 22
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Ben Burns
NFL
LIONS (+3 or better) *Main Event
UNDER jets/cowboys (46 or better) *Thursday Total of the Year
college football
OVER usc/asu (51 or better) *PAC 10 Total of the Year
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Kelso Sturgeon
Chairmans Club = 10 units Detroit +3 v. Green Bay
Best Bets Club
10 units Ariz St +3 v. USC
5 units Atlanta Falcons +11.5 v. Indy
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Point Train's
*90.9%* NFL Turkey Day Total - Thur.
UNDER 41 ATLANTA FALCONS -vs-Indianapolis Colts
Rating: 3 units
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wayne root
top play - dallas
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Brandon Lang
THURSDAY
25 DIME
USC TROJANS
15 DIME
Dallas Cowboys
5 DIME
Atlanta Falcons
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VICTOR KING'S
3* PACKERS @ LIONS GO UNDER THE TOTAL
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THE GOLDSHEET
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22
Green Bay 26 - DETROIT 17
DALLAS 37 - NY Jets 16
*Indianapolis 26 - ATLANTA 10
*ARZIONA STATE 24 - Southern Cal 20
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ppp
green bay
green bay over
dallas
dalls over
atlanta
atlanta under
asu
asu under
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Wild Bill
Lions +3 (1 unit)
Jets +13 1/2 (2 units)
Colts -11 1/2 (1 unit)
USC -3 1/2 (2 units)
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Winning Points Online NFL POD
***BEST BET
Dallas* over NY Jets by 27
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Norm Hitzges
Thanksgiving Weekend
Green Bay -3 vs Detroit
Double Play--Dallas -14 vs NY Jets
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Vegas Sports Pics
USC Trojans - 3 over (at) Arizona State Sun Devils
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Pure Lock
GREEN BAY (-) PTS
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Vegas Hot Sheet
Silver Rated Picks
1.Det +3.5
2.Dallas -14
3.KC -5.5
4.Chicago -1.5
5.Philly +22
6.San Fran +10.5
7.NYG -7
8.Balt under 38.5
9.Pittsburgh -10
Premium Picks
1.TB -3
2.Tenn -1
3.Buff -8.5
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Guaranteed Sports Pick
USC -3
Dallas -14
Indy under 41
Green Bay -3
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Doc's sports nfl
4* Det +3.5
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Pointwise Newsletter
Green Bay 23 Detroit 17
Dallas 34 New York Jets 13
Indy 23 Atlanta 16
Arizona St 24 USC 17
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Steven Budin-ceo
THURSDAY'S PICK
25 DIME PLAY
GREEN BAY PACKERS
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SCORE
Dallas 400%
Detriot 300%
Az St. 300%
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PAUL LEINER
20* NFL Over 47 Det/GB
10* CFB USC -3
5* NFL Jets +14
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Robert Ferringo
THANKSGIVING SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #103 Green Bay (-3) over Detroit (12:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 22)
I
COLLEGE SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #116 Mississippi State (-6.5) over Mississippi (12:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 23)
Note: This is our SEC Game of the Year.
4-Unit Play. Take #150 Kentucky (-3) over Tennessee (1:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #133 Missouri (+2) over Kansas (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 23)
3-Unit Play. Take #144 South Carolina (+3) over Clemson (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
3-Unit Play. Take #173 Ball State (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
2-Unit Play. Take #190 Stanford (-3.5) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
NFL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 36.0 Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #203 Buffalo (+7.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
3-Unit Play. Take #217 San Francisco (+10.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
3-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+3.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 25)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 New York Giants (-7) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
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ATS FINANCIAL
3 units Over 46 GB
3 units Dallas
Hoops
1 units W Kentucky
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ATS LOCK CLUB
NFL
4 units GreenBay
3 units Dallas
Hoops
3 units Cal Irvine
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Magliosa
NFL Over Indy
College USC
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Jeffersonsports
NFL
DETROIT+3.5
NCAA HOOPS EARLY RELEASE
GEORGE MASON+2
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Frank Patron
7 Point Differential - Arizona St
posted by phantom
Nov. 22 2007 12:10pm -
0 likes
Gold Medal Club-Friday____________15*__________________Akron +3 UNDER 63
Discount Sports Picks______________10*____________C. Michigan +3 over Akron
Michael Cannon________3-0 yesterday 10 Dime_____________CENTRAL MICHIGAN
LT PROFITS_____________________COMP__________________ Akron +2.5 (-110)
John Fina_________________________comp_________________ _____Akron +2.5
Charlie's 500__________________10* comp_______________central michigan+2'
Ats Financial Package________________3__________________________ __C Mich
superpicks dot net_________________20*____________________C. Michigan -2.5
pork chop________________________3*____________________ ______cent mich
Vegas Runner_____________ 2* comp__________________OVER 62.5 CMICH/AKR
cokin______________________under the hat__________________________akron
pork chop________________________3*____________________ _______b. green
Yankee Capper Total Ticket__________2 Units____________Central Michigan –2 ½
hsw early phones______________________________________c.mich /akron under
Sea Bass_________________________10___________________ _______Akron +3
DR CHAD___________________3rd 7 unit ever (1-0-1)++++++__NEBRASKA +4.5
Wunderdog___________________3 units________________________Nebraska +4
Mighty ! Quinn_____________________________________________ _Neb + 4 1/2
BILL HILTON GAMEDAY SPORTS____2*_______________COLORADO-4 vs Nebraska
Cappers Access Sport________Favorite Underdog Line Pick___________3- Nebraska
COMPUTER SPORTS_____________comp____________________COLORAD O-3 1/2
Valley Sports__________________comp_______________Nebrask a Over Colorado
Matt Rivers____________________comp____________________ _______Colorado
Scotty Spreitzer _______FB Conf. Shocker of the Month________________Nebraska
Selective Sports___________________4__________________Colora do under 59.5
Charlie's 500____________________500*_______________________ _colorado-3'
spritzer_____________________big 12 shocker gom__________________nebraska
Sea Bass_________________________10___________________ ________Neb +4
Wayne Root______________________Chair___________________ _Colorado Buffs
DR CHAD_____________________5 units_________________________Mississippi
Wunderdog___________________3 units_____________________Mississippi +6.5
Doc's sports___________________4*_______________________ ____ Miss st -6.5
Furingo____________________SEC GOY________________Mississippi State (-6.5)
Mike Rose_______________compMississippi____________Miss issippi State Over 47
Michael Cannon__________3-0 yesterday__________________MISSISSIPPI STATE
Selective Sports___________________4____________________Ole Miss under 48
Charlie's 500____________________10*_____________________mis sissippi st+6'
Ats Lock Club_______________________4______________________ _______Miss
Sea Bass_________________________10___________________ ________Miss +6
DR CHAD_____________________3 units______________________COLORADO ST
pro source____________________________________________ ____colorado st - 3
Larry Ness_____________________comp_____________________ ____Colorado St
MIKE WYNN____________________comp________Wyoming/Colorado St Under 48
Discount Sports Picks______________5*_______________________Wyomin g +3.5
Ats Financial Package________________3__________________________ __Col St.
Rocketman Sports___________________5*______________________ Colorado St
Larry Ness______________________________________________ ___Colorado St.
Yankee Capper Total Ticket__________3 Units________________Colorado St. –3 ½
Vegas Runner________________1* comp__________________OVER 49 WYO/CSU
Dr Bob________________________3*_____________________ LSU -13.5 or better
Mighty ! Quinn_____________________________________________ Ark + 12 1/2
Insider Sports Report_____________4*_____________Arkansas/L.S.U.UNDER 59.5
Michael Cannon__3-0 yesterday____30 Dime_______________________ARKANSAS
Charlie's 500____________________30*_______________________a rkansas+13'
Hondo_____________________________________________ _______________Ark
KelsoBest Bets______________________5 units__________Arkansas +12.5 @ LSU
Ats Lock Club_______________________3______________________ ________LSU
superpicks dot net_________________20*___________________Arkansas (+13.5)
Wolkosky Milan___________________10*___________________ARKA NSAS +13½
Wolkosky Milan___________________10*___________________ARK/LSU OVER 59
Sebastian________________________Comp_____________ ______________LSU
Kevin Kennedy____________________comp___________________ ____OVER LSU
pork chop________________________3*____________________ ___________ark
DR CHAD_____________________3 units___________________________TOLEDO
Wunderdog____________________3 units_________________________Toledo +7
joyce sterling_____________underdog game of week________________toledo+6.5
Duble B___________________college football rivalry GOY______________TOLEDO
Insider Sports Report______________3*_________Bowling Green -6.5 over Toledo
RAZOR SHARP SPORTS____________comp__________________TOL/BG OVER 73½
Michael Cannon_________3-0 yesterday 5 Dime_______________BOWLING GREEN
Tony Mathew___________________comp__________________Bow ling Green -6.5
TOTALS 4U_____________________comp__________________TOL/ BG UNDER 74
Tony Mathew___________________comp__________________Bow ling Green -6.5
Charlie's 500____________________20*_____________________bow ling green-6'
Fred Riecke~Gdata______________________________________ _____b.green-6.5
Wolkosky Milan___________________10*________________BOWLING GREEN -6½
feist___losing evrything in sight lately_____platinum____________________bgreen
DR CHAD_____________________5 units________________________Texas A & M
Mighty ! Quinn_____________________________________________ _A & M + 5 ½
joyce sterling______________contrary gow___________________texas a &m +5.5
Insider Sports Report____________4*____________________________Te xas -5.5
Elite Sports Picks_____________________________________________ Texas -5.5
Cappers Access Sport____Favorite Underdog Line Pick______________6 Texas A&M
tim Sullivan__________________________________________ ____________texas
Hondo_____________________________________________ _____________A & M
Fred Riecke~Gdata______________________________________ ________texas-5
Charlie's 500____________________20*______________________te xas a&m +6'
Tony K_________________________________________________ Texas A&M +5.5
Wolkosky Milan___________________10*_______________TEX/TEXAM UNDER 60
KRUUGER______________________Bronze 3*_____________________Texas -6.5
Tony K-Pickpal___________________________________________ _____texas a-m
Mike Mitchell______________________comp________________ _OVER Texas A&M
cokin________________________direct line__________________________tex am
feist-__losing evrything in sight lately___personal best____________________texas
Raider Sports_____________________10_____________________ ________TEXAS
Sea Bass_________________________10___________________ ____Tex A&m +1
Sea Bass_________________________20________________Tex /tex A&m Over 60
Wayne Root_____________________ No Limit_____________________Texas A&M
Steve Budin_____________________25 DIME___________________BOISE STATE
Doc's sports college________________4*_________________________ boise st +3
Wunderdog______________________4 units___________________Boise State +3
Mighty ! Quinn_____________________________________________ Boise + 4 1/2
ABBA______________________________________________ ____Boise State (+3)
BILL HILTON GAMEDAY SPORTS______3*__________________________HAWAII-3'
red zone sports____________wac game of the year___________________hawaii-3
joyce sterling__________________________________________ ________hawaii -3
Duble B_____________________Personal Favorite____________________HAWAII
Cappers Access Sport_______Favorite Underdog Line Pick______________3 Hawaii
DR. VEGAS_____________________________________________ _____Hawaii -3
Rob Veno________________________(7-2-2)____________________Boise st. +4
Maddux Sports____________________comp__________Hawaii -2.5 (Buy 1/2 Point)
tim Sullivan_______________________Best bet________________________hawaii
The hooks Plays ________________fade away hes terrible_________Boise State +4
KelsoBest Bets______________________3 units________________Boise State +3
Hondo_____________________________________________ _____________Boise
Fred Riecke~Gdata______________________________________ ____bosie.st+3.5
Fred Riecke~Gdata______________________________________ _Haw-Boise ov 75
superpicks dot net_________________20*____________________Boise St. (+3.0)
Wolkosky Milan___________________10*____________________BOI SE STATE +3
KRUUGER ______________________Bronze 3*_________________Boise State +3
IndianCowboy____________________3 units______________________Boise State
Spylock___________________________________________ _________Boise St +3
pork chop________________________3*____________________ __________haw
cokin________________________fatman play_________________________hawaii
feist___losing evrything in sight lately___personal best_________________boise st
spritzer___________________________ko_____________ _______________hawaii
Yankee Capper Total Ticket__________2 Units_____________________Boise St +3
PPP_____________________________5*________________ _________Boise state
Sea Bass_________________________200__________________ __Boise State +3
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2007 12:14pm -
0 likes
FRIDAY SERVICE REPORT
ATS Lock Club...............4*Mississippi State
......................................3*LSY & Colorado State
Dave Cokin....................System Play: Texas A&M
......................................3*Bowling Green
Director Sports...............Top: Boise State
......................................Regular: Mississppi State & Nebraska
Doctor Bob....................3*LSU
Frank Magliosa..............Texas A&M, Boise St & Ole Miss
Guarnatee Picks............Colorado State
Jim Feist........................Platinum: Bowling Green
......................................Personal Best: Boise State
......................................5*Nebraska 4*Arkansas
Joe Gavazzi(PPP)..........5*Boise State
......................................3*Arkansas & Texas A&M
Las Vegas Sports...........10*LSU & Boise State
Lenny Stevens...............20*Arkansas
.......................................10*Nebraska & Colorado State
LT Profits........................Hawaii
Northcoast......................3*Arkansas
......................................Opinions: Nebraska, Colo St, Hawaii & Texas A&M
Randy Radtke................Colorado
Rocketman....................5*Colorado State
Sebastian......................200*Boise State
Sports Authority.............Game Of The Week: Nebraska
Sports Bank...................400% LSU
Sports Doctor.................75*Ole Miss
......................................50*Boise State
Texas Sports Brokers....10*Boise State 5*Texas A&M
Underdog Hotline..........Game Of The Year: Boise State
Underdog Sportsline.....Wyoming
Windy City Sports..........8*Toledo
......................................6*Nebraska
Winners Path.................Texas A&M
posted by phantom
Nov. 23 2007 12:49pm -
0 likes
Rob Ferringo
4-Unit Play. Take #150 Kentucky (-3) over Tennessee (1:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #133 Missouri (+2) over Kansas (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 23)
3-Unit Play. Take #144 South Carolina (+3) over Clemson (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
3-Unit Play. Take #173 Ball State (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
2-Unit Play. Take #190 Stanford (-3.5) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
--------------------------------------------
Doc's sports college
4* Miss st -6.5
4* boise st +3
4* S car. +2.5
4* wake forest -2
4* memphis -7.5
4* ball st -8.5
4* virginia +3.5
5* UCF -19
--------------------------------------------
Northcoast
Early Bird POW
North Carolina
Underdog POW
South Carolina
Power Plays
4* Tulane
Econlmy Club
Miami Fla.
Northcoast Big Dogs
Arkansas
Utep
Tulane
Rice
Florida State
Miami Fla
--------------------------------------------
MARC LAWRENCE
Perfect System Club
Virginia
5* Virginia + 3.5
4* Utah + 4.5
3* Tennessee + 3
3* Georgia Tech + 3.5
UPSET
S CAROLINA over Clemson
--------------------------------------------
CKO
11 *VANDERBILT over Wake Forest
Late Score Forecast:
*VANDERBILT 32 - Wake Forest 23
10 *UCF over Utep
Late Score Forecast:
*UCF 52 - Utep 24
10 *RICE over Tulsa
Late Score Forecast:
*RICE 37 - Tulsa 38
10 WASHINGTON ST. over *Washington
Late Score Forecast:
WASHINGTON ST. 30-*Washington 24
--------------------------------------------
Tim Trushel
College Game Of Year
20* Featured Play
Kentucky -2.5 (150)
--------------------------------------------
ASA
6-Star West Virginia (-18)
--------------------------------------------
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
***PITTSBURGH 23 S. Florida (-10.0) 24
3 Star Selection
***Miami Ohio 33 OHIO (-2.0) 25
3 Star Selection
***NORTH CAROLINA (-14.0) 38 Duke 14
3 Star Selection
***Alabama 23 AUBURN (-6.0) 19
2 Star Selection
**STANFORD (-3.5) 26 Notre Dame 14
2 Star Selection
**WEST VIRGINIA (-17.5) 38 Connecticut 12
Strong Opinion
Miami Fla 21 BOSTON COLLEGE (-14.5) 30
Strong Opinion
FLORIDA (-13.5) 40 Florida St. 21
Strong Opinion
Clemson (-2.5) 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
--------------------------------------------
Spylock
1 Kentucky -3
1 Stanford -3.5
1 Kansas -2
--------------------------------------------
Nellys sportsline
10* Virginia +3.5 GOY
3* Utah +4.5
2* West Virginia -19
--------------------------------------------
Carlo Campanella
7* Play On Georgia
--------------------------------------------
POINT TRAIN
10* GOY KENTUCKY WILDCATS (-2.5)
--------------------------------------------
Gold Medal Club
CFB
25*+ Alabama +6
25* Maryland ML +120
15* Southern Miss -14
15* Wake Forest -1
15* N.Illinois +9
--------------------------------------------
BIG AL MCMORDIE
RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR
Virginia Cavaliers
--------------------------------------------
MATT RIVERS
1. 500,000♦ Kentucky
2. 100,000♦ Virginia Tech
1. 150,000♦ Florida State
2. 100,000♦ Georgia
--------------------------------------------
Trey Johnson
5* Rivalry Game of the Year!
Georgia (-)
Perfect 4-0 Blowout of the Month!
Play Oklahoma (-)
93% CFB Crusher of the Month!
North Carolina (-)
--------------------------------------------
BEN BURNS
College Football
*Big 12 Main Event
MISSOURI
*November NCAA Blowout GOM
WEST VIRGINA
*Mountain West Conference Total of the Year
UNDER TCU/SD State
*NCAA Non-Conf. GOY
GEORGIA TECH
SAN DIEGO STATE (+10.5 or better)
SYRACUSE (+17.5 or better)
--------------------------------------------
Norm Hitzges
Picks of the Pole
Double Plays
Texas -5.5 vs Texas A&M
Memphis -7.5 vs SMU
UCF -19 vs UTEP
Florida -14 vs Florida State
Single Plays
Georgia -3.5 vs Georgia Tech
Colorado State -3.5 vs Wyoming
Boise State +3.5 vs Hawaii
Vanderbilt +1 vs Wake Forest
Cincy -20 vs Syracuse
South Carolina +3 vs Clemson
San Jose +3.5 vs Nevada
Buffalo +1.5 vs Kent State
Utah State +2 vs Idaho
Washington -5.5 vs Washington State
TCU -11 vs San Diego State
VaTech -3.5 vs Virginia
LSU -13 vs Arkansas
--------------------------------------------
Andy Iskoe
126 Hawaii -2.5
133 Missouri +2
187 Va Tech -3.5
193 Ark St. +13.5
Best Bet:
138 Vandy +1
--------------------------------------------
Donnie Black
CFB NC State -2.5 (140)
CFB South Carolina +3 (144)
CFB 20* Black Magic: Ohio U -2 (152)
--------------------------------------------
Tim Trueshel
CFB 20* Featured Play: Kentucky -2.5 (150)
CFB Pittsburgh +10 (128)
CFB South Carolina +3 (144)
CFB Ohio U -2 (152)
CFB Washington State +6 (181)
CFB Virginia +3.5 (188)
--------------------------------------------
red zone sports
total of week oregon /ucla under 50.5
top side of week south carolina +3
--------------------------------------------
Service Insider
Georgia Tech +4
Florida -13.5
So. Miss -14
--------------------------------------------
Gamebreakers Sports
College Week 13
Triple Power Play
Washington -5.5
Kansas St +1.5
Triple Power Play
Game of the Year
Ball St -8
--------------------------------------------
Ats Lock Club
Foots
8 S Carolina
6 Marshall
6 Virginia Tech
5 Kentucky
5 Georgia
Hoops
5 Rhode Island
4 Wisconson
3 St. Louis
--------------------------------------------
Jim Feist
sec gom
alabama
--------------------------------------------
Dave Cokin
under the hat plays
UCF
ECU
Ohio u.
--------------------------------------------
Jeff Benton
25 Dime: ALABAMA (plus the points vs. Auburn)
10 Dime: UCLA (plus the points vs. Oregon)
5 Dime: KANSAS (minus the points vs. Missouri)
5 Dime: UTAH (plus the points vs. BYU)
--------------------------------------------
Ats Financial Package
NCAAF
4 Wake Forest
3 Wisconson
3 Okla St.
BASKETBALL
4 Minnesota
3 California
--------------------------------------------
Scott Spreitzer
Final 25* CFB Gridiron Mismatch
Memphis
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Nov. 24 2007 11:34am -
0 likes
SERVICE REPORT
ATS Lock Club...................8*South Carolina
..........................................6*Marsha ll & Virginia Tech
..........................................5*Kentuc ky & Georgia
..........................................4*Wake Forest
..........................................3*Notre Dame & San Diego State
Brandon Lang...................50*West Virginia
.........................................30* TCU, C.Florida & Tulsa
.........................................15*Cincin nati & Oklahoma
Brian Mac..........................Hotside: Virginia Tech
Cobra................................Game Of The Year: Wake Forest
Dave Cokin........................Under The Hat: East Carolina & Ohio University
..........................................Wondow Play: Georgia Tech & Oregon State
..........................................System Play: Floirda State
...........................................Big Gun: BYU
...........................................3*South Carolina & Idaho
Director Sports...................Special: Ball State & Memphis
...........................................Top: W.Michigan & UL Monroe
...........................................Regular : Oklahoma & Georgia
"Doc"..................................5*Virgi nia & C.Florida
Doctor Bob.........................3*Pittsburgh, Miami(Ohio), Alabama
...........................................2*Stanf ord & West Virginia
Frank Magliosa...................Alabama, NC State & Pittsburgh
GameDay............................Game Of The Year: Virginia
Gold Sheet..........................Top: Memphis
............................................Regula r: Vanderbilt, Rice, Georgia, Boston College
Guarantee Picks..................Stanford
Jim Feist.............................Platinum: San Jose State
...........................................Persona l Best: Virginia
...........................................5*Fresn o State 4*Utah
Joe Gavazzi(PPP)...............5*Alabama & SFla/Pitt(U)
............................................4*Pitt sburgh & Oklahoma State
...........................................3*Ala/Aub(U)
Las Vegas Sports................10*Wake Forest, Idaho & Memphis
Lenny Stevens....................20*Kentucky & North Carolina
...........................................10*Kans as, Florida & Virginia
LT Profits............................Utah & Utah/BYU(U)
Nelly...................................Game Of The Year: Virginia
Northcoast...........................4*Marshall
...........................................3*Memph is, Georgia & Miami(Fla)
Northcoast(Totals)...............3*FSU/Fla(O) & Ore/OSU(U)
Pointwise............................4*South Carolina & UCLA
Purelock.............................Tennessee
Randy Radtke.....................Special: Alabama
...........................................South Carolina, Virginia, Ga Tech & Missouri
Rocketman.........................4*Duke 2*UL Monroe
Special K............................20*Vanderbilt
SCORE................................400*Cincinnat i & West Virginia
...........................................200*Vir ginia & Missouri
Sports Authority..................Game Of The Week: Kansas State
...........................................Tulsa & San Diego State
Texas Sports Brokers........10*Alabama 5*Georgia Tech
VIP Lock Club....................250% Georgia
Wayne Root.......................Billionaire: Alabama
..........................................Milliona ire: Georgia Tech
..........................................Inner Circle: Washington
..........................................No limit: San Jose State
..........................................Money Maker: Virginia
Windy City Sports..............Game Of The Year: Wake Forest
..........................................8*West Virginia 6*NC State
Winners Path.....................Georgia
posted by phantom
Nov. 24 2007 1:01pm -
0 likes
Dr Bobster
3 Star Selection
***Buffalo 20 JACKSONVILLE (-8.0) 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
Buffalo is 7-1 ATS this season when not playing New England, including 6 straight non- Patriots spread wins and the Bills are still an underrated team. I can certainly understand why the Bills are considered a bad team given that theyve averaged just 4.8 yards per play while allowing 5.8 yppl this season, but those numbers dont reflect whats going on with the Bills currently. Buffalo was horrible defensively early in the season but a couple of injuries to starting defensive backs led to a new lineup and the Bills discovered that the backups are much better than the original starters were. In 6 games since CB Jabari Greer and S George Wilson joined the starting lineup the Bills have allowed 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. Buffalos J.P. Losman has played well since returning as the starting quarterback and he has been 0.1 yards per pass play better than average this season (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) while Trent Edwards was 0.9 yppp worse than average in his 5 games. The rushing attack is much worse without Marshawn Lynch, as his 3.8 ypr is much better than the 2.7 ypr that the other running backs have averaged this season. I adjusted the Bills rushing attack 0.8 yards per rushing play downward for the absence of Lynch and I rate Buffalos attack at 0.7 yppl worse than average without Lynch. Jacksonville, however, is 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively this season (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and their offense is only 0.3 yppl better than average with David Garrard at quarterback, so the Jags are actually a below average team from the line of scrimmage. Garrard makes up for that by having not thrown an interception all season, but the Jaguars certainly are just barely better than an average team overall while Buffalo is barely worse than average thanks to their great special teams and their now better than average defense. My math model favors Jacksonville by only 3½ points in this game and the Jags apply to a 2-29 ATS subset of a 33-77-1 ATS home favorite letdown situation. The Bills were 5-1 straight up in their 6 games before facing the Patriots juggernaut last week, with the only other loss being by just 1 point to the 9-1 Cowboys, so getting more than a touchdown looks like a good play given the situation and the line value. I'll take Buffalo in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7½ points or more and for 2-Stars at +7 points.
2 Star Selection
**Oakland 17 KANSAS CITY (-5.5) 14
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
The Raiders are a much better team with Daunte Culpepper at quarterback in place of Josh McCown, as Culpepper has averaged a decent 5.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback) while throwing just 5 interceptions in 162 passes. McCown, meanwhile, averaged only 5.1 yppp despite facing teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB and he threw 9 picks in just 122 pass attempts. Culpepper looked good in his return to the starting lineup last week, throwing for over 300 yards and averaging 7.2 yppp against the Vikings and the Raiders are just 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively with Culpepper at quarterback. Kansas Citys defense has been solid all season and the Chiefs rate at 0.4 yppl better than average on that side of the ball, so they have a 0.5 yppl advantage over the Raiders attack. The Chiefs have turned their offense over to second year pro Brodie Croyle and he hasnt proven to be any worse than Damon Huard was in his 1½ games behind center. Croyle has averaged only 5.5 yppp on 79 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and the Chiefs running attack has gone from bad to dreadful with Larry Johnson sidelines the last two weeks. Kansas City has averaged only 3.2 ypr this season and the Chiefs averaged just 2.8 ypr in two games without Johnson (against teams that would combine to allow 4.4 ypr) and now backup Priest Holmes has suddenly retired. Rookie Kolby Smith takes over, but his 19 yards on 10 carries this season does not indicate that he’ll be any better than Holmes was (just 3.0 ypr before retiring). Kansas City has been 0.9 yppl worse than average offensively this season (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and that unit is even worse without Larry Johnson again this week. The Raiders have been a disappointment defensively this season, but their horrible run defense doesnt figure to hurt them too much against an equally bad Chiefs rushing attack and the Raiders defense (0.6 yppl worse than average) has a 0.5 yppl advantage over the Chiefs offense without Johnson which is the same advantage that KC had over Oaklands offense. The Raiders have an edge in special teams and my math model favors the Chiefs by just 2 points in this game. Oakland applies is just 2-8 and riding a 6 game losing streak but the Raiders continue to play hard and last weeks competitive loss at Minnesota is a good omen for the Raiders today. Teams that have lost 5 or more consecutive games are good bets if theyre coming off a loss of 7 points or less (a sign that they havent given up) and Oakland applies to a 76-26-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Ill take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3½ points or more and for 3-Stars at +6 or more.
2 Star Selection
**Baltimore 17 SAN DIEGO (-9.0) 18
01:15 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
San Diego is certainly not a dominating team this season, being out-gained by an average of 305 yards at 5.3 yards per play to 355 yards at 5.6 yppl (after taking out quarterback spikes and kneel downs), and even the Chargers compensated numbers (0.1 yppl better than average offensively and 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively) are just mediocre. Baltimore looks like a bad team right now, as the Ravens have lost 4 straight games and are just 1-9 ATS for the season. Baltimores offense is indeed bad, averaging only 4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, but the Ravens defensive issues in recent weeks are likely to be a thing of the past with CB Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister back together in the secondary. Rolle has missed 6 games due to epilepsy, but hes returning to the lineup this week while McAlister should play this week with a bum ankle after returning from a 3 game absence last week. Safety Ed Reed got hurt last week, but he is also expected to play this week. Baltimores run defense has been great all season (3.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.1 ypr against an average team) and the pass defense was very good too in the 3 games in which both Rolle and McAlister have played allowing just 5.4 yards per pass play in weeks 1, 2 and 6 to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.6 yppp against an average defense). Baltimores pass defense has been 0.9 yppp worse than average in 7 games in which either Rolle or McAlister was out, so they are certainly not going to be as bad as their poor season numbers indicate. Baltimores defense is 0.4 yppl better than average for the season, but that unit has been 0.6 yppl better than average with their secondary intact and they have a pretty good edge over San Diegos offense especially if the Chargers try to run against the Ravens stout defensive front. My math model favors San Diego by 7 points if McAlister and Reed play as expected and by 9 points if one of them doesnt so the line is fair at the very worst and Baltimore applies to a number of good situations. The best of the situations is a 19-1 ATS subset of a 59-19-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and Ill take Baltimore in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7½ points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Minnesota 20 NY GIANTS (-7.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
It looks like the oddsmakers are making a little too much of the injury to star rookie running back Adrian Peterson. Peterson had been incredible for Minnesota before getting hurt (1081 yards at 6.4 ypr), but the Vikings have a great offensive line and a very good backup running back in Chester Taylor, who has run for 468 yards at 5.6 ypr. The absence of Peterson is only worth about 1 point and the Vikings should certainly not be a 7 point underdog in this game. New York is only 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the best part of their offense a rushing attack that has averaged 4.6 ypr against teams that would allow just 3.9 ypr to an average team. However, running against the Vikings is not something that is easily done (Minnesota yields just 3.0 ypr) and Eli Manning is below average again this season (5.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback). The Vikings are 0.2 yppl worse than average defending the pass, but the Giants are at a disadvantage overall against the Minnesota defense. The Vikings offense has been 0.5 yppl better than average this season, but I rate that attack at just 0.2 yppl better than average without Peterson and with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. The Giants are only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively and these teams are about even overall from the line of scrimmage. The Giants do have an advantage in projected turnovers but Minnesota has an edge in special teams and my math model favors New York by just 2 points in this game and the Vikings have a solid 56% chance of covering at +7 points based on the historical predictability of my math model. Ill consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion in this game at +7 points and Ill take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7½ points or more (at -115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion
San Francisco 15 ARIZONA (-10.5) 20
01:05 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
San Francisco is now officially the worst team in the NFL after losing at home to the Rams, but the 49ers qualify in a very good 227-111-9 ATS contrary indicator and a 24-1 ATS subset of a 138-67-3 ATS situation. Arizona, meanwhile, applies to a negative 34-90-1 ATS situation and the 49ers are the strongest technical play of the week. San Franciscos defense is good enough to keep them in the game, but their offense is horrendous and my math model favors Arizona by 12½ points. The situations are certainly strong enough to give up a bit of line value but Im just not eager to pull the trigger on the Niners in a Best Bet. Ill consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more on the basis of the strong situations and indicators.
Strong Opinion
Under (41) - PITTSBURGH (-16.0) 24 Miami 10
05:30 PM Pacific, 26-Nov-07
Miamis offense went from better than average to a bit worse than average when quarterback Trent Green was injured and then the attack went from worse than average to dreadful starting week 9 when star running back Ronnie Brown was hurt. Backup Jessie Chatman is a decent runner, but he hasnt been able to match Browns 5.1 ypr and Chatman hasnt come close to making up for Browns contributions in the passing games. Brown still leads the Dolphins in receiving yards despite missing the last 3 games and he was the NFLs best pass catching running back when he got hurt, averaging 8.5 yards per pass thrown to him. Chatman, meanwhile, has averaged only 4.4 yards on the 28 passes thrown to him and the difference is about 3 points per game. The difference in the running contributions between the two backs works about to about 2 points per game and the Dolphins have averaged just 4.1 yards per play and 9 points in 3 games without Brown. Miami has turned over the reigns of this broken down offense to rookie John Beck and he appears to be no better or worse than Cleo Lemon was in Lemons 5 games at the helm which is to say not very good. My math model favors Pittsburgh by 14½ points and I have situations going both for and against the Dolphins in this game. Ill lean slightly with Miami and I would have made the Under a Best Bet here if not for Pittsburghs tendency to go Over at home (39-12-1 Over). Miami has gone easily Under in all 3 games without Brown and his absence hasnt been properly adjusted for in the total. I will consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher.
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2007 2:08am -
0 likes
EROCKMONEY_________(Upset Special)____________Carolina (+3) v. New Orleans
Wunderdog______________Comp_______________________________Carolina +3
The RED SHEET_______________________________________________N Orleans
Bernz______________________________________________________PANTHERS
gbwins.com______________________________________________New Orleans -3
LT Profits_________________Comp____________________Carolina Panthers +3.0
Dave Price________________Comp_______________________New Orleans Saints
Vincent Pioli_______________comp__________________________New Orleans +1
Gold Medal Club_____________15*_____________________________Carolina +3
North Star Sports Service_________________________________NEW ORLEANS -3
Bernz_______________________________________________________BENGALS
king creole______________double dime___________________cinn /tenn over 46.5
LEM BANKER___________________________________________________Bengals
SportsAction365____________comp____________________________Cincinnati -3
G. LYON__________________________________________________CINNCINNATI
king creole___________________________ double dime _____cinn /tenn over 46.5
ATS FINANCIAL______________________3 units___________________Tennessee
MARC LAWRENCE______________4*___________Houston + 3 Buy Extra 1/2 Point
MARC LAWRENCE_______NFL PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB__________________Houston
The hook_______________________________________________Brownies - 3 1/2
EROCKMONEY________________________________________Under 51 Hous/Clev
gbwins.com________________________________________________Cleveland -3
Teddy Covers________________________________________Houst/Cleve Over 51
Robert Ferringo_______________3-Unit Play____________________Houston +3.5
Phenom__________________________________________Houston/Cleveland Over
Gold Medal Club_________________10*________________(First Half) Browns -1.5
GAFFNEY____________________________________________________HOUSTON
G. LYON_____________________________________________________HOUSTON
Norm Hitzges_____________________________________Houston +3 vs Cleveland
POINT TRAIN______________ROAD WARRIOR____________Houston Texans(+3.5)
Tim Trushel_______________________________________________Houston +3.5
Wunderdog__________________________2 Units___TEXANS / BROWNS UNDER 51
North Star Sports Service______________________________________HOUSTON 4
North Star Sports Service____________________HOUSTON/CLEVELAND Under 52.5
ATS FINANCIAL______________________3 units_____________________Houston
MARC LAWRENCE___________________3*________________________Buffalo + 8
Robert Ferringo________________________________________over 36.0 Buff/Jax
Robert Ferringo____________________2.5-Unit Play_____________Buffalo (+7.5)
king creole______________________dime bet jaguars/bufflo___________over 36.5
Phenom___________________________________________________________Jax
Alex Smart________________________Comp________________Buffalo Bills +7.5
Norm Hitzges___________________________________Buffalo +8.5 vs Jacksonville
Stephen Nover_____________________Comp_____________________Buffalo Bills
Gold Medal Club____________________25*_______________________Buffalo +8
Dr B_________________________3 Star***BEST BET_______________Buffalo +7
GAFFNEY________________________________________________JACKSONVILLE
Wunderdog__________________________4 Units____________BUFFALO BILLS +9
king creole_________________________dime bet_______jaguars /bufflo over 36.5
vicki.MTI newsletter plays__NFL system of the week ______________Buffalo UNDER
ATS LOCK CLUB_____________________12 units__________________Jacksonville
Kelso_____________________Chairmans Club 10 Units_____Jacksonville +8 v. Bills
EROCKMONEY__________________Blowout of the Week_______Kansas City (-5.5)
The hook________________________________________________Kc over 34 1/2
Dr B_____________________________2 Star________________________Oakland
NSA Wins_________________________comp____________________Oakland +4.5
GAFFNEY____________________________________________________OAKLAND
Norm Hitzges_________________________________________Oakland +5.5 vs KC
Wunderdog__________________________4 Units________OAKLAND RAIDERS +6
North Star Sports Service___________________OAKLAND/KANSAS CITY Over 34.5
Robert Ferringo__________________2.5-Unit_______________New York Giants -7
Fred Callahan_____________________comp__________________Giants over 48.5
Gold Medal Club____________________25*________First Half) Giants -3 OVER 20
Dr B_________________________Strong Opinion___________________Minnesota
The hook_____________________________________________________giants -7
(JOHHNY) Law_____________________________________Minnesota Vikings +7.5
vicki.MTI newsletter plays______________4*_____________________under giants
vicki.MTI newsletter plays__________Trend of the Week_______________NY Giants
Kelso___________________________5 Units Best Bet______Giants -7.5 v. Vikings
The hook____________________________________________________Seattle -3
NELLY______________________________3*_____________________St.Louis +3
gbwins.com__________________________________________________Seattle -3
Teddy Covers_______________________________________________St. Louis +3
ROB VENO______________________20* blue chip_____________st.louis over 44.5
DC sports_______________________20* grand slam___________st.louis over44.5
DONNIE BLACK___________________blackmagic 20*__________st.louis over 44.5
ace-ace/allan Eastman_________________30_________________________sea -3
007's cousin?____________________triple-dime bet__________STL/SEA Over 44.5
Phenom________________________________________________________Seattle
LT Profits Comp_____________________________________Seahawks/Rams u45.0
Marc Lawrence________________________Comp_______________St. Louis Rams
Michael Alexander_____________________Comp________________St Louis Rams
GameDay___________________________comp___________________Seattle -5.5
Gold Medal Club___________________10*__________First Half Seattle OVER 22.5
Tim Trushel________________________________________________St. Louis +3
vicki.MTI newsletter plays___OU Trend of the week_____Rams and Seahawks OVER
North Star Sports Service______________________________________ST LOUIS 3
North Star Sports Service_______________________SEATTLE/ST LOUIS Over 44.5
NELLY_____________________________1*___________________Washington +3
EROCKMONEY_______________________________Tampa Bay (-3) v. Washington
CKO______________________________10___________________________WASH
Teddy Covers_____________________________________________Tampa Bay -3
Dave Malinsky______________________6*_____________________TAMPA BAY -3
ace-ace/allan Eastman________________20___________________________tb -3
king creole________________________dime bet____________t bay/Wash over 38
Steven Budin____________________25 DIME PLAY_____TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
LEM BANKER_____________________________________________________Bucs
Phenom____________________________________________________Tampa Bay
Bruce Marshall_____________________Comp_________Washington Redskins +3.0
Gold Medal Club____________________25*____________________Washington +3
GAFFNEY___________________________________________________TAMPA BAY
G. LYON__________________________________________________WASHINGTON
Norm Hitzges_________________________________Tampa Bay -3 vs Washington
S.Spreitzer________________________best bet____________________tampa bay
Matt Rivers _________________Lock of the day 100,000♦________________Redskins
Kelso_________________________3 Units Best Bet__Washington +3 @ Tampa Bay
ATS LOCK CLUB______________________4 units__________________Washington
Ross Benjamin________________NFL 20* Game Of The Month____ -3.5 Tampa Bay
king creole_________________________dime bet_____tampa bay/redskins over 38
Dave Malinsky________________________6*_____TAMPA BAY over WASHINGTON
North Star Sports Service__________________________________WASHINGTON 3
North Star Sports Service__________________WASHINGTON/TAMPA BAY Over 36.5
vicki.MTI newsletter plays_______________4*________________________wash
NELLY______________________________1*____________________Denver +1.5
Bernz____________________________Personal___________BEARS (-3 or better)
The hook_____________________________________________________Bears -1
ron Raymond______________________5 unit____________bears/broncs under 41
LEM BANKER____________________________________________________Bears
Phenom_______________________________________________________Denver
Mike Rose________________________Comp______________Denver Broncos +2.0
Matt Rivers_______________________50,000♦____________________________Bears
ATS LOCK CLUB______________________5 units______________________Denver
EROCKMONEY_____________________________Over 38) San Francisco at Arizona
VICTOR KING______________________2*_________49ers @ CARDINALS UNDER
Bernz_________________________________________________________49ERS
Robert Ferringo___________________3-Unit_____________San Francisco (+10.5)
STEPHEN N______________OVER total of the month__________ARI /SF Over 37.5
Dr B________________________strong Opinion_________________San Francisco
Norm Hitzges________________________________Arizona -10.5 vs San Francisco
North Star Sports Service___________________________________ARIZONA -10.5
GOLDEN CONTENDER____________________________________________Raveens
The hook__________________________________________________Balt + 9 1/2
MARC LAWRENCE___________________3*_____________________Baltimore + 9
Larry Ness_______________________NFL 24*____________________SD Chargers
Matt Fargo_________________________Comp_______________Baltimore Ravens
Tony Campone______________________comp____________San Diego under 40.5
G. LYON____________________________________________________BALTIMORE
POINT TRAIN__________________6-UNIT BEST BET_____Baltimore Ravens (+9.5)
Norm Hitzges_____________________________________________San Diego -9.5
Dr B_________________________2 Star Selection___________________Baltimore
Matt Rivers______________________________________________50,000♦ Ravens
North Star Sports Service____________________________________SAN DIEGO -9
ATS LOCK CLUB______________________5 units____________________Baltimore
VICTOR KING____________________2*____________EAGLES @ PATRIOTS OVER
Bernz Blue________________________________UNDER pats/eagles (48 or better)
GAFFNEY________________________________________________NEW ENGLAND
Charlies Sports_________________comp_____________________Philadelphia -10
Tim Trushel___________________Featured Play_________New England Under 50.5
The RED SHEET___________________________________________________PITT
EROCKMONEY___________________________________Miami (+15) at Pittsburgh
Dr B_________________________Strong Opinion_________Under 41 PITTSBURGH
posted by phantom
Nov. 25 2007 11:59am -
0 likes
SERVICE REPORT
ATS Lock Club..............3*Miami
Brandon Lang...............50*Pittsburgh
.....................................Opinion: Mia/Pit(O)
Dave Cokin...................3*Pittsburgh
Director Sports..............Pittsburgh
Frank Magliosa.............Miami
Jeff Cline......................20*Pittsburgh
Jim Feist.......................5*Pittsburgh
Jim Hurley....................Miami
Joe Gavazzi(PPP).........Opinions: Pittsburgh & Mia/Pit(U)
Lenny Stevens..............10*Pittsburgh
Northcoast.....................2*Pittsburgh
SCORE...........................200%Pittsburgh
Sports Authority.............MNF Game Of The Month: Pittsburgh
Sports Bank...................400*Mia/Pit(O)
Sports Doctor.................50*Pittsburgh
Sports Unlimited............3*Pittsburgh
Tony Wright...................3*Mia/Pit(U)
Texas Sports Brokers....5*Miami
Tom Stryker..................Game Of The Month: Pittsburgh
Wayne Root..................Chairman Of The Board: Pittsburgh
Windy City.....................9*Pittsburgh
posted by phantom
Nov. 26 2007 8:04pm
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