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   gold sheet

   NFL ANALYSIS

   KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES

   Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().

   Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “O”—Offense. “D”—Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions. ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years. TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

   All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.

   SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18

   JACKSONVILLE 20 - San Diego 16--Jags have hopes that QB David Garrard (high ankle sprain; check status) will return after missing 3 games. Jacksonville has lost hammering G Naeole for the rest of the season, while S.D. is without DE Castillo for several weeks, with def. coord. Cottrell attributing Adrian Peterson's record 296-yard performance two weeks ago largely to his absence. Note that S.D. 1-5 SU last 6 away and that Chargers are 5-4 TY by virtue of two return TDs vs. Colts plus a missed Vinatieri chip-shot FG. (04-S. DIEGO +2' 34-21...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   INDIANAPOLIS 28 - Kansas City 10--Indy dominated LY's Wildcard meeting, stifling the K.C. offense (only total 126 yards; Larry Johnson 32 YR; check status). Colts laboring themselves a bit these days due to injuries suffered by key receivers Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark & Anthony Gonzalez & (check status), not to mention DE Dwight Freeney. But Indy 4-0 vs. number at home TY and fired up after back-to-back losses.

   (06-INDY 23-K. City 8...I.28-7 I.40/188 K.17/44 I.31/39/3/247 K.14/24/2/82 I.0 K.1)

   (06-INDIANAPOLIS -7 23-8 (Playoffs)...SR: Indianapolis 11-7)

   MINNESOTA 20 - Oakland 10--Battle of two teams searching for some high-quality NFL QBing (will Oakland soon take the wraps off JaMarcus Russell?). But even if big gun RB Adrian Peterson (1081 YR; knee exam pending, check status) out, Vikes have vet Chester Taylor (1216 YR in 2006) against the porous Raider run defense that has yielded 180 ypg rushing on the road TY. Relentless Minny G Steve Hutchinson eager to pound away at that group.

   (03-OAKLAND +4' 28-18...SR: Oakland 9-3)

   Cleveland 24 - BALTIMORE 17--There's no margin for error in Baltimore, especially after injury-nicked Ravens failed to capitalize on a soft early slate (check out the upcoming schedule!). Meanwhile, the offense continues to misfire, especially with Steve McNair (just 2 TDP) a shadow of his former self. Cleveland's credentials as a playoff contender (QB D. Anderson, once waived by Balt., now 20 TDP) solidified further by near-miss at Pittsburgh. Doubt McNair can do much more damage than first meeting, when his dinks proved mostly harmless in Browns' 27-13 win.

   (07-CLE. 27-Balt. 13...B.16-12 B.20/111 C.30/99 B.34/53/1/307 C.10/18/1/204 C.0 B.1)

   (06-Balt. 15-CLE. 14...B.18-17 B.27/86 C.19/38 B.23/41/0/254 C.21/33/1/250 B.0 C.1)

   (06-BALT. 27-Cle. 17...B.14-13 B.35/142 C.16/68 B.13/25/1/231 C.23/33/2/168 B.2 C.0)

   (07-CLEVE. +4 27-13; 06-Balt. -6' 15-14, BALT. -12 27-17...SR: Baltimore 11-6)

   Pittsburgh 26 - N.Y. JETS 10 --The vilified Eric Mangini's switch to stronger-armed Kellen Clemens really not much more than a half-season audition that will determine if Jets need to pursue a new QB with as much as they need upgrades with defensive front 7 in offseason. And Clemens likely to find Steeler def. coord.'s Dick LeBeau's zone blitzes throughly confusing. "Bye" week not likely to improve spirits in glum NY locker room.

   (04-PITTSBURGH -5 17-6, PITTSBURGH -9 20-17 (Playoffs-OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 16-2)

   Tampa Bay 20 - ATLANTA 13--Is the NFC South worse than the AFC or NFC West? And is it really possible Atlanta could become a factor in the division race? Even with Falcons at 3-6, we wouldn't completely rule out the latter, especially if the rejuvenated Warrick Dunn (189 YR last 2) continues to provide the infantry diversion that Joey Harrington needs to function, even at his low-watt power. But now that Earnest Graham has emerged as more than a stop-gap for injured Tampa Bay RBs, and Jeff Garcia functioning effectively at QB, Bucs' offensive competence gives them the edge.

   (06-ATL. 14-T. Bay 3...22-22 A.44/306 T.16/40 T.28/53/3/311 A.10/16/1/76 A.1 T.0)

   (06-Atl. 17-T. BAY 6...15-15 A.34/139 T.29/80 T.22/37/0/192 A.14/23/1/141 A.0 T.2)

   (06-ATLANTA -5 14-3, Atlanta -3' 17-6...SR: Tampa Bay 15-12)

   Arizona 30 - CINCINNATI 23--New Arizona HC Whisenhunt well familiar with the Bengals after spending the L6Ys as an assistant with the AFC North Steelers. Although tall, speedy WR Chris Henry back for Cincy, Bengals depletion on defense has seen them fall to 31st overall through Week Nine, and 28th vs. the run, which is good news to Edgerrin James (678 YR), who's keeping lots of pressure off Kurt Warner (3 TDP last week). Cardinals 9-2-1 last 12 as a dog, and "over" 20-6-1 last 27 on road.

   (03-ARIZONA +3 17-14...SR: Cincinnati 5-3)

   PHILADELPHIA 23 - Miami 17--Is Miami HC Cam Cameron close to giving a shot to BYU rookie John Beck at QB? Even if not, his "triplets" of journeyman QB Cleo Lemon, RB Jesse Chatman (out of football LY), and rookie WR Ted Ginn Jr. are not what he had in mind when he took the job last winter. But it's not like 0-9 Dolphins are being regularly "run over," as 5 of their 9 losses have been by just 3 points! Chatman 124 YR last week vs. Bills, while Lemon had no interceptions. (03-Philadelphia +2' 34-27...SR: Miami 7-4)

   *New England 26 - BUFFALO 16--A banana peel for 9-0 New England? We doubt it, because Buffalo doesn't have quite enough "O" (especially if rookie RB Lynch can't make post) to trade points. But with Sammy Morris out, some insiders wonder if Bill Belichick might regret not luring Corey Dillon out of retirement to provide the physical infantry component that could come in handy as weather deteriorates. Bills (5-0 as home dog TY; currently 6 straight covers overall) haven't dropped a spread decision since Sept. 23 at Foxborough (when QB Losman was KO'd in first series). TV--NBC

   (07-N. ENG. 38-Buf. 7...N.27-12 N.38/177 B.27/110 N.23/29/0/308 B.11/21/1/83 N.1 B.1)

   (06-N. ENG. 19-Buf. 17...N.19-12 N.41/183 B.24/99 B.15/23/0/141 N.11/23/1/136 N.1 B.0)

   (06-N. Eng. 28-BUF. 6...N.18-13 N.27/94 B.25/75 B.16/25/1/181 N.18/27/0/171 N.0 B.2)

   (07-N. ENG. -16' 38-7; 06-N. ENG. -9' 19-17, N. Eng. -5' 28-6...SR: New England 54-40-1)

   DALLAS 30 - Washington 13--Both Tony Romo & Jason Campbell took over as their respective team's starting QBs in midseason LY, but Romo's development has been much greater. Moreover, he's arguably had better offensive support, especially TY by his big, healthy line, something not present in Washington. And kudos to off. coord. Jason Garrett for being able to get all of his offensive weapons (including "T.O." and split-duty RBs J. Jones & Barber) operating in mutual harmony (not easy in the NFL).

   (06-DAL. 27-Wash. 10...D.22-16 D.31/138 W.20/93 D.19/38/0/229 W.18/33/1/152 D.1 W.0)

   (06-WASH. 22-Dal. 19...D.21-18 W.32/117 D.29/111 D.24/36/0/267 W.14/23/0/183 W.1 D.0)

   (06-DALLAS -6' 27-10, WASHINGTON +3 22-19...SR: Dallas 55-37-2)

   OVER THE TOTAL New Orleans 34 - HOUSTON 24--The Saints' recent surge is being driven by QB Drew Brees (13 TDs, only 3 ints. the last 5 games), who has adapted well to the alterations made since the loss of power back Deuce McAllister. Meanwhile, Houston has lost six DBs for the season, including two starters. Andre Johnson (103 recs. LY; knee injury Week Two) is reportedly ready to return for the Texans. But that's not likely to be enough vs. Brees & mates, who are eager for their chances vs. Texan secondary.

   (03-NEW ORLEANS -8 31-10...SR: New Orleans 1-0)

   GREEN BAY 27 - Carolina 10--Panthers can't seem to win at home (six straight losses), but they have a "knack" on the road (4-1 SU; 6-1 vs. spread last 7). Too bad they're catching the Packers when G.B. is red hot (12-1 SU, 10-2-1 vs. spread last 13) and with the Panther QBs gimpy (sore-heeled Testaverde 13 of 28 last week). Pack making impressive in-season improvements at RB with Ryan Grant (278 YR last 3 games) and at WR with addition of Koren Robinson (5 recs. last week).

   (05-CAROLINA -7' 32-29...SR: Green Bay 6-3)

   NY Giants 31 - DETROIT 27--Not a good matchup for Jon Kitna and the Detroit OL, which has yielded a league-high 40 sacks, while the Giants front seven "hungry" for some after collecting only two last week vs. Dallas' well-protected Tony Romo. Kitna will get plenty of completions vs. the N.Y. secondary. But Giants' better balance (Lions minus 18 YR last week) will win the day, especially if Detroit starting CB Fernando Bryant (check foot injury) is out. (04-Detroit +7 28-13...SR: Detroit 21-17-1)

   St. Louis 22 - SAN FRANCISCO 17--Last week's win should do wonders for the confidence of Rams, who have s-o-o-o-o many more weapons on offense than the limited 49ers, whose own OL is now ravaged by injuries (RG Justin Smiley, LT Jonas Jennings placed on IR last week). With Brian Leonard blocking for Steven Jackson & Antonio Pittman (combined 129 YR at New Orleans), QB Marc Bulger had just enough time to hit 27 of 33 in win vs. Saints.

   (07-S. Frn. 17-ST. LOU. 16...St.20-8 Sf.28/89 St.23/61 St.24/41/0/331 Sf.11/17/0/97 Sf.2 St.3)

   (06-S. FRN. 20-St. Lou. 13...St.17-14 Sf.33/127 St.28/118 Sf.11/22/0/233 St.19/34/0/147 Sf.1 St.1)

   (06-ST. LOU. 20-S. Frn. 17...St.23-20 Sf.31/171 St.29/140 St.24/37/1/209 Sf.13/25/2/148 St.0 Sf.1)

   (07-S. Fran. +3 17-16; 06-S. FRAN. +3 20-13, ST. LOUIS -4' 20-17...SR: St. Louis 59-55-2)

   Chicago 19 - SEATTLE 17--Payback time for the Seahawks, who lost in the Divisional Round in OT at Chicago LY? However, Seattle's progress hampered TY by WR injuries and by Shaun Alexander's decline (due in part to hand fracture) to 3.3 ypc. Could Rex Grossman (two late TD drives last week to beat Oakland) turn out to be the next young veteran QB to benefit from spending some time on the sidelines watching another in his job? The tools are there (except for Cedric Benson--3.0 ypc). Chicago 6-2-1 last 9 as reg.-season dog.

   (06-CHI. 37-Sea. 6...C.21-14 C.38/143 S.19/77 C.17/31/0/219 S.17/37/2/153 C.0 S.0)

   (06-CHI. 27-Sea. 24 (OT)...C.21-18 S.31/127 C.34/120 C.21/38/1/251 S.18/33/1/179 C.1 S.0)

   (06-CHICAGO -3' 37-6, CHICAGO -9 27-24 (Playoffs-OT)...SR: Seattle 6-4)

   MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19

   *Tennessee 21 - DENVER 13--A potentially terrible matchup for Denver, which ranked last in rush defense through Week Nine, while the much-improved Tennessee defense was first. Both QBs Jay Cutler & Vince Young going through some growing pains vs. NFL defenses in their second seasons. But Vince's supporting cast much healthier, and RBs LenDale White & Chris Brown (from University of Colorado) provide the power that Denver hates TY, and 6-3 Titans eager to get back on track in AFC playoff chase after last week's loss. Tennessee 9-1-1 last 11 as a visitor overall, and 12-2-1 as an underdog since "V.Y." was elevated to the starting job. CABLE TV--ESPN

   (04-Denver -4 37-16...SR: Tennessee 21-14-1

   MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

   Tennessee and Denver on Monday Night

   Tennessee is 6-7 straight-up and 6-7 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;

   11-8 straight-up and 9-9-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.

   Denver is 18-10-1 straight-up and 11-17-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;

   5-19 straight-up and 8-15-1 vs. the spread on the road on Monday Night Football.

   NFL KEY RELEASES

   ARIZONA by 7 over Cincinnati

   TENNESSEE by 8 over Denver (Monday)

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

   OVER THE TOTAL in the New Orleans-Houston game

   NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS

   All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.

   TOTAL HOME AWAY

   TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA

   Arizona 8 3 4-5 5-3-1 5-4 21-22 3-1 21-20 2-2 21-23

   Atlanta 9 1 3-6 6-3 2-7 15-20 2-2 19-23 4-1 12-18

   Baltimore- 10 1 4-5 1-8 3-4 15-20 1-3 19-15 0-5 13-24

   Buffalo+ 8 3 5-4 7-2 3-6 16-18 5-0 21-18 2-2 9-19

   Carolina- 11 2 4-5 4-5 2-7 17-20 0-4 12-26 4-1 20-15

   Chicago 9 2 4-5 3-6 4-5 18-21 0-4 17-24 3-2 19-19

   Cincinnati+ 9 2 3-6 4-5 5-4 24-28 2-2 23-27 2-3 26-28

   Cleveland 8 3 5-4 7-2 8-0 28-29 4-1 32-31 3-1 24-28

   Dallas -1 3 8-1 7-2 7-2 33-22 3-1 33-26 4-1 33-18

   Denver 7 2 4-5 2-7 7-2 17-26 1-4 17-26 1-3 17-27

   Detroit 8 4 6-3 5-3-1 5-4 25-24 3-0 31-17 2-3 19-30

   Green Bay+ 3 5 8-1 7-1-1 5-4 25-16 3-1 24-16 4-0 28-16

   Houston 9 2 4-5 4-5 5-3 23-25 2-2 26-23 2-3 20-27

   Indianapolis -2 3 7-2 6-3 3-6 29-17 4-0 33-17 2-3 27-16

   Jacksonville 5 3 6-3 5-4 5-4 20-18 1-3 17-17 4-1 23-20

   Kansas City 10 3 4-5 4-4-1 4-5 15-19 1-3 16-21 3-1 14-17

   Miami 13 2 0-9 2-5-2 5-4 20-29 0-4 19-34 1-1 23-28

   Minnesota 10 2 3-6 3-4-2 4-5 18-21 2-2 23-17 1-2 15-24

   New England -9 5 9-0 8-1 7-2 39-16 4-0 41-11 4-1 39-20

   New Orleans- 6 3 4-5 3-6 5-3 22-25 1-4 24-25 2-2 21-25

   NY Giants 5 3 6-3 5-4 5-3 24-21 3-2 23-22 2-1 30-24

   NY Jets 13 2 1-8 2-6-1 5-3 18-25 1-3 15-24 1-3 21-28

   Oakland 13 1 2-7 3-6 4-5 18-22 0-5 16-23 3-1 20-20

   Philadelphia 7 3 4-5 4-5 4-5 21-20 1-3 25-25 3-2 18-16

   Pittsburgh 3 4 7-2 6-3 5-4 28-14 4-1 31-11 2-2 25-18

   St. Louis+ 12 2 1-8 2-7 3-6 15-28 1-3 20-26 1-4 11-29

   San Diego 3 4 5-4 5-4 5-3 24-21 4-1 23-16 1-3 24-27

   San Francisco 13 1 2-6 2-5-1 3-5 13-23 1-2 10-20 1-3 16-27

   Seattle 8 4 4-4 3-5 3-5 21-18 2-2 24-15 1-3 18-20

   Tampa Bay 7 4 5-4 4-4-1 3-6 18-16 3-1 22-12 1-3 14-21

   Tennessee 6 2 6-3 5-3-1 2-6 20-17 2-3 17-16 3-0 23-18

   Washington 9 3 5-4 2-5-2 4-4 20-21 1-3 23-18 1-2 16-25

   College Analysis

   KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES

   Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().

   Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “O”—Offense. “D”—Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions. ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years. TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

   All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.

   THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15

   *Oregon 34 - ARIZONA 26--Will Oregon be the next victim of the "Top Two" curse? Probably not, especially with QB D. Dixon expected to be ready after brief knee injury scare vs. Arizona State Nov. 3. But Ducks might have to sweat a little vs. Mike Stoops' rejuvenated UA bunch that has more than held its own in recent series meetings. Wildcat QB Tuitama (24 TDP) getting more and more comfy with Sonny Dykes' Texas Tech-like spread. CABLE TV--ESPN

   (06-Ariz. 37-ORE. 10...O.18-16 A.45/230 O.26/163 O.25/45/4/183 A.9/14/0/133 A.0 O.2)

   (06-Ariz. +13' 37-10 05-Ore. -10' 28-21 04-ORE. -11' 28-14...SR: Oregon 19-12)

   ADDED GAME

   *ARKANSAS STATE 47 - North Texas 37--With a succession of basketball-like scores (allowed 66 or more three times in nine games!) blurring the distinction between UNT gridders and Johnny Jones' Mean Green hoopsters, can't get too excited about visitors. ASU "O" has exploited the lesser stop units on its schedule, but UNT's "Dodge Ball" offense gaining confidence with every game.

   (06-ARK. ST. 29-N. Tex. 10...A.23-13 A.51/279 N.31/160 A.11/19/0/187 N.11/16/1/103 A.0 N.1)

   (06-ASU -10 29-10 05-Asu -2' 31-24 04-Ntu -5 31-7...SR: EVEN 8-8)

   FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 16

   *CENTRAL MICHIGAN 36 - Eastern Michigan 27--Look for EMU to gather itself for a major effort in this battle for the Michigan MAC Trophy. Eagle QB Andy Schmitt has thrown 7 TD passes & no ints. in his last 4 games, and RB Pierre Walker has 399 YR & 4 TDs in his last 3. The EMU defense is better than Central's, which ranks 113th in the country, and Chippewas have already clinched a spot in MAC title game.

   (06-Cmu 24-EMU 17 (OT)...E.25-24 E.47/188 C.33/176 C.27/42/1/276 E.22/32/0/157 C.0 E.0)

   (06-Cm -4' 24-17 (OT) 05-Em +5' 23-20 (OT) 04-Em +1' 61-58 (OT) Ford Field...SR: CMU 53-25-6)

   *NEVADA 38 - Hawaii 37--Trips to Reno have been the bane of recent Hawaii teams, which haven't won or covered at Mackay Stadium since Nevada joined WAC. And in potentially adverse weather conditions, June Jones' Red Gun might not function as well as Chris Ault's Pistol, which can slam away with north-south RB Lippincott (5.5 ypc). Wolf Pack QB Kaepernick (13 TDP and 5 rush TDs in 4-plus games as starter) almost matching Colt Brennan's (check status) recent stats. And, remember, Warriors needed OT before prevailing at both La Tech & SJSU. CABLE TV--ESPN2

   (06-HAWAII 41-Nevada 34...H.28-25 H.24/160 N.25/108 H.36/47/0/419 N.26/36/0/364 H.2 N.2)

   (06-HAWAII -12 41-34 05-NEVADA -5 38-28 04-HAWAII -18 48-26...SR: Nevada 6-5)

   SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 17

   IOWA 30 - Western Michigan 10--Iowa's defense has put Hawkeyes in a position to virtually clinch a bowl bid with a win in this finale. WMU has just 1 cover this season, and Bronco HC Bill Cubit isn't happy with QB Hiller's performance despite 2378 YP & 16 TDs. It's Hiller's 14 ints. that have his coach in his face. Hawkeyes 9-2 "under" this season.

   (DNP...SR: Western Michigan 1-0)

   TEMPLE 26 - Kent State 20--Backup QBs face off in this one, as Temple's Vaughn Charlton (64% in '07; 238 YP & no ints. vs. Penn State last week) goes up against...??? Kent could be down to its fourth choice at QB, as true frosh Giorgio Morgan (the No. 3 QB forced up the ladder by attrition) left with an injury last week & didn't return. Golden Flashes were forced to use 4th-team soph Jon Brown, who was 16 of 34 in loss vs. NIU. Kent RB Eugene Jarvis is dangerous, but Owls already have 2 MAC wins at home.

   (06-Kent St. 28-TEMPLE 17...K.26-11 K.49/208 T.25/50 K.15/28/1/207 T.14/26/0/144 K.1 T.1)

   (06-Kent State -24 28-17...SR: Kent State 1-0)

   GEORGIA TECH 31 - North Carolina 13--Blood feud vs. Georgia up next for Tech, and Atlanta scouts say HC Gailey probably needs to finally beat hated Bulldogs to have any chance at keeping his job. That potential "lookahead" notwithstanding, Jacket d.c. Tenuta's myriad blitzes vs. still-learning Tar Heel RS frosh QB Yates (13 ints., only 3 TDP in last 7 games) a troublesome matchup for visitor.

   (06-Ga. Tech 7-UNC 0...G.15-12 G.44/143 N.23/55 N.13/34/2/156 G.10/24/1/78 G.1 N.0)

   (06-Tech -13' 7-0 05-TECH -12' 27-21 04-UNC +8 34-13...SR: Georgia Tech 22-17-3)

   MICHIGAN STATE 27 - Penn State 23--Michigan St. HC Dantonio managed to get his Spartans to reverse their history of late season failures with win at Purdue, and another victory would cement a bowl bid for MSU for the first time since '03. That was also the last time the Spartans beat Penn State. Nittany Lions just 1-6 vs. number last 7 on Big Ten road, and MSU scored 39 ppg in 3 conference home games thus far.

   (06-PENN ST. 17-Msu 13...P.22-18 P.39/105 M.15/14 M.30/62/0/291 P.17/37/0/220 P.4 M.0)

   (06-PSU -17' 17-13 05-Psu -8 31-22 04-PSU +3' 37-13...SR: Penn State 12-11-1)

   West Virginia 34 - CINCINNATI 23--Conflicting technical trends. Cincy (9-1 SU last 10 at Nippert) a dangerous dog, but confident West Va. (12-3 vs. spread last 15 away from Morgantown) seems to feed off hostile crowds. Outcome will likely hinge on which unit makes more big plays--opportunistic Bearcat defense (nation-leading 35 takeaways) or explosive Mountaineer offense. With inside track to Big East title, a measured vote for visiting WV and its quick-striking duo of QB White & RB Slaton.

   (06-W. VA. 42-Cincy 24...C.20-13 W.38/313 C.31/57 C.23/41/3/310 W.8/14/0/98 W.0 C.1)

   (06-WEST VIRGINIA -18 42-24 05-West Virginia -14 38-0...SR: West Virginia 13-1-1)

   CONNECTICUT 35 - Syracuse 10--Grind-it-out UConn offense not made of the stuff to easily cover hefty imposts. Few reasons to support bedraggled Syracuse (6 losses by 21 or more TY), however. Solid defensive edge for Huskies (allowing just 15 ppg) over poor-tackling Orange, who have been trampled for 468 ypg.

   (06-SYR. 20-Conn. 14...C.17-14 S.39/163 C.39/70 C.21/33/3/196 S.9/19/0/143 S.1 C.0)

   (06-SYR. -1' 20-14 05-CONN. -6' 26-7 04-SYR. -3 42-30...SR: Syracuse 2-1)

   INDIANA 30 - Purdue 27--Indiana QB Kellen Lewis has thrown for 558 yds. & 6 TDs in the last two games and has maximized the connection with 6-7 WR Hardy (15 recs.; 4 TDs). Can't knock the job Purdue QB Painter has done this season, but Boiler defense is susceptible to Lewis' run-pass dual threat. Old Oaken Bucket returns to Bloomington!

   (06-PURDUE 28-Ind. 19...P.22-20 I.31/215 P.39/175 I.26/42/0/290 P.18/32/4/260 P.1 I.4)

   (06-PURDUE -12 28-19 05-Purdue -12 41-14 04-PURDUE -21 63-24...SR: Purdue 68-35-6)

   TENNESSEE 37 - Vanderbilt 17--Now that UT controls own destiny in SEC East, must support upbeat squad that played its best defensive game of year in convincing 34-13 romp vs. Arkansas (Hogs held to no meaningful TDs, just 289 yds.). Vols highly-productive, well-protected sr. QB Ainge (64%, 17 TDs, 5 ints; only sacked thrice) and mates will eventually pull away from rival Vandy, ranked next to last in SEC in both scoring (22 ppg) & red zone offense. UT still painfully recalls '05 series upset vs. Cutler-led Dores on this field.

   (06-Tenn. 39-VANDY 10...T.18-14 T.26/163 V.34/109 T.21/30/0/266 V.11/24/2/109 T.1 V.0)

   (06-Tenn. -8 39-10 05-Vandy +11' 28-24 04-Tenn. -13 38-33...SR: Tennessee 68-27-5)

   BUFFALO 31 - Bowling Green 28--Buffalo has covered 4 of last 5, and is 3-0 SU at home in MAC games this season. Bull QB Drew Willy has 8 TD passes with no ints. in his last 4 games, and RB James Starks is averaging 143 YR in his last 5. Those two figure to continue piling up stats against BG's mediocre stop unit (33 ppg).

   (06-B. GR. 48-Buf. 40 (OT)...Bg.29-17 Bg.58/356 Bu.47/105 Bg.18/26/1/214 Bu.21/32/0/138 Bg.1 Bu.1)

   (06-BGU -23 48-40 (OT) 05-Bgu -24 27-7...SR: Bowling Green 3-1)

   Tulsa 36 - ARMY 17--Tulsa offense rolling, with 105 points in last two games. However, it was the Golden Hurricane defense (33 ppg) that was mostly responsible for UT's failure to cover six straight games before those two. Too bad Black Knights (4 straight losses, all by 20 points or more) aren't a more inviting home dog (1-6 L2+Ys). It's not good when the Army lacks weapons! (FIRST MEETING)

   Byu 24 - WYOMING 16--Wyoming has only one way to go after its 50-0 whitewash at Utah. And it must be noted Cowboys are 4-1 SU in Laramie in 2007. However, Wyo QBs Sween & Hetrick unable to match aerials with BYU's rapidly developing passer Hall. So Cowboys will need plenty of defense (17 ppg at home) and some oddsmakers' "help" to stay within reach of Cougars.

   (06-BYU 55-Wyoming 7...B.18-10 W.23/144 B.43/141 B.20/26/0/313 W.14/28/2/102 B.0 W.0)

   (06-BYU -18' 55-7 05-Byu -4 35-21 04-BYU -7' 24-13...SR: BYU 40-30-3)

   AIR FORCE 30 - San Diego State 13--SDSU finally showing signs of progress for Chuck Long, as Aztecs now getting help from special teams and "D" (each scored TD last week at UNLV). But overachieving AFA (covered last 6) and its blitz packages well-suited to disrupt SDSU QB O'Connell, and clever Falcon QB Carney has burned better defenses than Aztecs'. Slew of AFA seniors not about to let down in final home game.

   (06-SDSU 19-A. Force 12...A.23-15 A.65/297 S.30/151 S.12/19/0/133 A.4/7/1/47 S.0 A.1)

   (06-SDS +13 19-12 05-AFA -7' 41-29 04-Sds +5' 37-31...SR: Air Force 16-9)

   ARKANSAS 31 - Mississippi State 13--Although surprising 6-4 MSU bowl eligible for 1st time since 2000, still prefer to lay it with superior Arkansas squad that gets vaunted ground assault unleashed again vs. Bulldog front seven (yielding 4.2 ypc, 13 TDs). Word is this could be final home game for Hogs marvelous, NFL-bound jr. RB McFadden (1431 YR; playing in hometown). And doubt MSU's still-learning frosh QB Carroll (9 of 21 for just 100 yds. vs. Bama) sustains many drives. (at Little Rock, AR)

   (06-Ark. 28-MISS. ST. 14...M.19-14 M.30/154 A.38/128 M.15/36/2/201 A.9/18/1/128 A.0 M.0)

   (06-Ark. -14' 28-14 05-ARK. -13' 44-10 at LR 04-Ark. -9' 24-21...SR: Arkansas 11-5-1)

   NEW MEXICO STATE 42 - Utah State 27--With floundering Utah State riding 15-game losing streak, willing to lay single digits with improved NMS aggregrate that's 5-1-1 vs spread last 7 in Las Cruces. Aggies own enormous QB edge with prolific triggerman Hollbrook (72%, 24 TDP), who should have field day vs. permissive Utah State 2ndary (19TDP) that allowed Boise QB Tharp to complete 28 of 32 week ago.

   (06-Nmsu 42-UTAH ST. 20...N.22-18 N.39/160 U.33/135 N.22/29/1/331 U.15/31/1/197 N.1 U.1)

   (06-Nms -6' 42-20 05-Usu -2' 24-21 04-USU +6 54-25...SR: Utah State 25-6)

   Oklahoma State 34 - BAYLOR 23--Likely the last game for respected HC Guy Morriss in Waco (there are rumors a buyout has already been arranged). And the Bears' effort last week at Oklahoma, albeit a 52-21 loss, a sign BU will play hard. OSU's offense burgeoning, but youthful Cowboy defense could leave back door open on the road. Bears own covers TY vs. Texas & Oklahoma.

   (06-OKLA. ST. 66-Bay. 24...O.26-23 O.54/387 B.21/93 B.24/41/3/262 O.13/15/0/123 O.0 B.3)

   (06-OSU -16' 66-24 05-BAY. -3 44-34 04-OSU -25' 49-21...SR: Oklahoma St. 13-12)

   Oklahoma 41 - TEXAS TECH 36--Oklahoma can clinch the Big XII South, and HC Bob Stoops is mindful of the controversial ending to OU's 2005 game on this field (when TT "scored" a TD on the last play). Sooners should get their win. But must be somewhat respectful of Red Raider firepower (42 ppg; QB Harrell 43 TDP TY, 5 last week at Texas), even though the TT "D" (26 ppg) doesn't command much respect (reportedly, even from its coach).

   (06-OKLA. 34-Tex. Tech 24...O.25-16 O.36/139 T.11/31 O.24/31/1/309 T.26/48/1/250 O.3 T.0)

   (06-OKLA. -8' 34-24 05-TECH -7' 23-21 04-OKLA. -25 28-13...SR: Oklahoma 11-3)

   KANSAS 47 - Iowa State 9--Magical Jayhawks (10-0 SU, 9-0 vs. spread) continue to roll while other undefeateds fall, and there's more than enough momentum in now-rowdy Lawrence to continue vs. an ISU team that is still hustling, but also investing in youth for 2008. KU's heady QB Reesing (26 TDs, 4 ints.) has now gone 179 throws without an int., while power back McAnderson (444 YR last 3 weeks) makes all teams honor the middle in Jayhawks' spread. Future-NFL CB Talib should contain Cyclone WR Blythe.

   (06-Kansas 41-IOWA ST. 10...K.19-12 K.46/169 I.30/33 K.20/27/1/234 I.16/31/1/180 K.3 I.3)

   (06-Kansas -1 41-10 05-KANSAS +3 24-21 (OT) 04-ISU +4 13-7...SR: Kansas 46-34-6)

   BOISE STATE 52 - Idaho 12--Now that classy Boise State is dominating on both sides of ball (won last 2 by combined 94-7 score), compelled to lay lumber vs. outmanned, neighboring Idaho squad that's a money-burnin' 1-9 vs. spread last 10 in WAC play. And note, Broncos even a higher % on "blue carpet" late in year, going 18-3 vs. spread last 2 games at home since '97. BSU's torrid 6-2 sr. QB Tharp has 904 YP last 3 games!

   (06-Boise St. 42-IDAHO 26...I.20-17 B.37/208 I.28/69 I.24/45/2/328 B.10/23/1/145 B.0 I.0)

   (06-Bsu -21 42-26 05-BSU -32' 70-35 04-BSU -31' 65-7...SR: Boise St. 18-17-1)

   Duke 34 - NOTRE DAME 27--Miserable 2007 campaign giving 1-9 Irish a little taste of the horror 1-9 Duke goes through year in and year out. In matchup of nation's two most feckless rushing attacks, compelled to back top QB on field. That's clearly Blue Devils' soph T. Lewis, who has thrown at least 1 TDP in each of last 12 games. Depressed Domers (covered just 7 of last 27!) sink further into the abyss. TV--NBC (DNP...SR: Notre Dame 2-1)

   Ucf 42 - SMU 23--Dicey psychology for Mustangs, who are fighting hard for lame-duck HC Bennett but still coming up empty. SMU has lost 8 straight games, although 6 of its last 7 setbacks have been by 2 TDs or fewer. Bowl-eligible UCF has pro-caliber RB Kevin Smith (177 ypg rushing--2nd in nation) and a lot more confidence than host. (FIRST MEETING)

   RICE 39 - Tulane 32--Wary of laying inflated price. Seven of Rice's last 9 victories have been by 6 points or fewer, and Tulane will mount many clock-eating drives with RB Forte (nation-leading 1813 YR) pounding away at weak Owl defense. However, irrepressible record-setting Rice QB Clement, who has thrown for 759 yards & 8 TDs and has run for 227 yards & 4 TDs in just last 2 games (!), usually doesn't need much time to strike.

   (06-TULANE 38-Rice 24...R.26-24 T.28/143 R.39/129 T.21/40/1/344 R.25/47/1/271 T.1 R.0)

   (06-TULANE +2' 38-24 05-RICE -1 42-34...SR: Rice 15-13-1)

   HOUSTON 41 - Marshall 23--With number seriously reduced following highly contrasting efforts last week, would rather recommend bowl-eligible, well-coached Houston, coming off its worst setback since 63-13 spanking at Oklahoma in '04. And while Marshall notched impressive 26-7 upset vs. East Carolina in friendly Huntington, don't see that necessarily translating on road, where Herd is just 3-12 as an underdog since '05. (FIRST MEETING)

   NAVY 45 - No. Illinois 34--Although leaky Navy stop unit even has Defense Secretary Bob Gates worried after allowing 49 first-half points (no kidding!) at North Texas, Paul Johnson's option is the envy of military strategists everywhere as it runs away with another national rushing crown (357 ypg and 42 TDs!). But note that Navy hasn't won a game by more than 12 points TY! (FIRST MEETING)

   MEMPHIS 36 - Uab 32--Thanks to exploits of QB Hankins (another 396 YP last week in upset win vs. USM), Memphis' unlikely bowl hopes still alive. But with last 4 wins by 10 points total, Tigers' KO punch surely not mistaken for George Foreman's. UAB not much, but Blazers showed a little life last week vs. potent UCF, and Neil Callaway's rotating QBs Hunt & Webb can make enough plays to keep visitors within earshot

   (06-UAB 35-Memphis 29...U.22-18 U.50/279 M.27/77 M.22/30/1/303 U.12/20/2/134 U.0 M.1)

   (06-UAB -5' 35-29 05-Uab +2' 37-20 04-UAB +2' 35-28...SR: UAB 7-2)

   California 26 - WASHINGTON 23--Even though U-Dub minus Jake Locker (doubtful after scary neck sprain last week at Oregon State) a bit like the Lakers sans Kobe Bryant, still not sure we want to lay points with underachieving Cal. After all, Bears now in minor bowl territory, haven't covered a number since late September, and QB Longshore still impaired by sore ankle. Note backup Husky QB Bonnell led UW into OT at Berkeley in '06.

   (06-CAL. 31-Wash. 24 (OT)...C.22-18 C.35/195 W.36/162 C.21/36/0/291 W.17/31/5/284 C.0 W.0)

   (06-CAL. -23 31-24 (OT) 05-Cal. -9 56-17 04-Cal. -30' 42-12...SR: Washington 45-37-4)

   Lsu 41 - MISSISSIPPI 16--Since top-ranked LSU has plenty of energy preserved following 58-10 "tuneup" vs. La Tech, explosive Tigers (39 ppg) able to overcome high impost vs. disappointing, defensively-soft (last in SEC) Ole Miss, unlikely to benefit from bye week. Rebels struggling, mistake-prone QB Adams (fewer than 100 YP in last two SEC games; 15 ints.) quickly loses any remaining confidence vs. ferocious, balanced Tiger stop unit (17 ppg, 31 sacks, 16 ints.). LSU's unsuspended back-up QB Perrilloux extends margin.

   (06-LSU 23-Miss. 20 (OT)...L.17-13 M.44/100 L.32/91 L.19/35/0/217 M.9/20/0/95 L.1 M.1)

   (06-LSU -27' 23-20 (OT) 05-Lsu -16' 40-7 04-LSU -20' 27-24...SR: LSU 54-37-4)

   GEORGIA 35- Kentucky 31--With confident and healthy Kentucky clinching consecutive seven-win seasons for 1st time since '76-'77, points worth considering in what shapes up as another SEC shootout. UGA mentor Richt effectively using variety of motivational tactics (Dawgs donned black jerseys for 1st time in modern era last week), but that won't effect Wildcats brilliant sr. QB Woodson (64%, 29 TDs, 7 ints.), who has the weaponry to match Dawgs potent counterpart Stafford's arsenal. Brooks' squad 11-4 vs. spread last 15.

   (06-KY. 24-Ga. 20...G.21-20 G.32/159 K.42/147 G.16/29/3/230 K.23/32/2/204 K.1 G.1)

   (06-KY. +7 24-20 05-GA. -26 45-13 04-Ga. -24 62-17...SR: Georgia 47-11-2)

   Missouri 30 - KANSAS STATE 27--Mizzou in a virtual must-win situation to set up finale vs. Kansas for Big XII North title. Chase Daniel and Co. should get there, but not without a 60-minute battle from humiliated yet capable K-State, off its 73-31 smashing at Lincoln. Ron Prince should get enough out of QB Josh Freeman & WR Jordy Nelson (99 recs.) to keep things interesting, even if the embarrassed Wildcat defense fails in the end.

   (06-MO. 41-Kan. St. 21...M.24-19 K.47/262 M.37/171 M.24/31/0/262 K.5/20/2/63 M.2 K.2)

   (06-MO. -15 41-21 05-KSU -3 36-28 04-Ksu +4 35-24...SR: Missouri 56-31-5)

   Ohio State 27 - MICHIGAN 19--Obviously, Ohio State was deflated after having its perfect season spoiled by Illinois, but neither team will have problems getting back up with Big Ten title at stake. It's tough to back Michigan without knowing how close to 100% are RB Mike Hart and QB Chad Henne. Henne was pulled in the first Q of loss at Wisconsin, although HC Carr said he could've played, while Hart was held out for the 3rd time in 4 games due to a lingering high ankle injury. Talented OSU 8-2 vs. points last 10 on Big Ten road and has beaten Wolverines 3 straight (including SU win in Ann Arbor in '05). TV--ABC

   (06-OHIO ST. 42-Mich. 39...O.24-17 O.29/187 M.30/130 O.29/41/1/316 M.21/35/0/267 O.2 M.0)

   (06-OSU -6' 42-39 05-Osu -3 25-21 04-OSU +5 37-21...SR: Michigan 57-40-6)

   VIRGINIA TECH 34 - Miami-Florida 10--Regardless of outcome vs. Miami, Tech can earn berth in ACC title game with win in reg.-season finale at rival Virginia. Can chemistry-poor Hurricanes pick their pride out of gutter after their emasculating loss last week in final game at Orange Bowl? Maybe. But can't back troubled visitor, whose QBs Wright & Freeman have completed just 34% with 2 TDP & 9 ints. during last 3 games.

   (06-Va. Tech 17-MIAMI 10...10-10 M.27/153 V.40/53 V.5/19/1/86 M.14/30/3/84 V.0 M.0)

   (06-Tech -2 17-10 05-Miami +6' 27-7 04-Tech +7 16-10...SR: Miami-Florida 16-8)

   CLEMSON 31 - Boston College 28--Tigers will sew up Atlantic spot in ACC championship game with a victory. But despite two straight losses, BC can regain the inside track to the Atlantic Division berth with a win of its own. Tough for Eagles to deny Clemson a shot at first conference title since 1991, as QB Harper (31 TDP, only 5 ints.) hot and Tiger RBs J. Davis & Spiller (kick return TD in each of last 2 games) rate big edge. Count on confident BC sr. QB Ryan (836 YP in last 2 games) to go down firing, however.

   (06-B. COL. 34-Clem. 33 (OT)...C.23-22 C.40/147 B.37/110 C.25/40/0/343 B.22/38/0/212 B.1 C.1)

   (06-BC +2 34-33 (OT) 05-Bc +3 16-13 (OT)...SR: EVEN 7-7-2)

   Maryland 23 - FLORIDA STATE 19--Major questions at QB for Florida State (see Special Ticker). Banged-up Maryland battling to keep minor bowl hopes alive. Foes finding some holes in vaunted Seminole defense (permitted at least 24 points 5 times TY). Balanced Terps should be able to generate enough offense to wage 60-minute battle at Doak Campbell, where FSU has covered just 4 of last 17 as chalk!

   (06-MARY. 27-Fla. St. 24...F.24-15 F.34/172 M.32/92 F.22/36/0/286 M.12/20/0/131 M.0 F.1)

   (06-MARY. +3' 27-24 05-FSU -17 35-27 04-MARY. +11 20-17...SR: Florida State 15-2)

   UTAH 27 - New Mexico 20--A bit reluctant to recommend against red-hot Utah bunch (won last 6, covered last 5) that's been hitting on all cylinders since before Columbus Day. But New Mexico historically feisty as visiting dog (17-6 last 23 in role), and QB Porterie regained some confidence with controlled effort vs. CSU. Rocky Long well-versed in chess matches between his unorthodox 3-3-5 Lobo "D" and spread looks such as Utes'.

   (06-N. MEX. 34-Utah 31...N.21-19 U.41/160 N.34/117 N.19/33/1/350 U.18/31/0/234 N.0 U.0)

   (06-UNM +6 34-31 05-Unm +6 31-27 04-Utah -9' 28-7...SR: Utah 29-17-2)

   Oregon State 19 - WASHINGTON STATE 15--Adjustments on Wazzu "D" (including switch to 3-4) paying dividends for Cougs, who appear to be making one final stand to save HC Doba's job. But despite QB Brinks' exploits, WSU still inefficient offensively. And if not suspension-depleted (check ejections last week), OSU "D" should be able to cope. With RB Bernard (149 YR vs. Washington) back in lineup, Beav "O" can function even if reliever Moevao in for injured QB Canfield once more.

   (06-Wash. St. 13-ORE. ST. 6...W.19-16 W.37/85 O.28/64 W.19/34/1/270 O.18/34/1/223 W.1 O.3)

   (06-Wsu -3 13-6 05-OSU -1' 44-33 04-OSU -8 38-19...SR: Washington St. 47-41-3)

   *LOUISIANA TECH 27 - San Jose State 16--After being subject to LSU torture chamber last week, facing limited SJSU will make La Tech feel like it's on a date with Nicole Kidman. Brief Spartan uprising vs. lowly N. M. State no indicator that Spartans have cured their many ills (including 113th-ranked rushing game). Remember, improved Bulldogs have exceeded 200 yards both running & passing in last 3 WAC tilts.

   (06-S. JOSE ST. 44-La. Tech 10...S.24-11 S.58/476 L.22/41 L.16/34/0/181 S.11/17/0/168 S.0 L.0)

   (06-SAN JOSE ST. -9' 44-10 05-LA. TECH -19' 31-14...SR: San Jose State 4-2)

   *North Carolina State 26 - WAKE FOREST 24--After losing 5 of its first 6 games under new HC Tom O'Brien, jelling N.C. State has won 4 straight and covered last 5. Wake having trouble protecting QB Skinner recently, so no shock if Wolfpack able to ride versatile soph RB Eugene (117 carries for 526 YR, 25 receptions in last 5 games) to another victory and continue its surprising late run at possible minor bowl bid.

   (06-W. For. 25-NCSU 23...N.21-13 W.37/142 N.28/134 N.21/37/1/200 W.9/14/0/124 W.0 N.0)

   (06-Wfu +3 25-23 05-WFU +3 27-19 04-NCS -10' 27-21 (OT)...SR: N. Carolina St. 60-34-6)

   *SOUTH FLORIDA 33 - Louisville 21--Maligned Cardinal defense much improved over earlier in season, and Louisville desperate to salvage minor bowl bid out of disappointing campaign. Good matchup for S. Florida defense, however, as Bulls can turn pass rush loose on QB Brohm, thanks to presence of pro-caliber sr. CBs Jenkins & T. Williams. USF (7-2 vs. spread last 9 at Tampa) now healthier at offensive skill positions after recent rash of injuries.

   (06-LVL. 31-S. Fla. 8...L.20-14 L.36/172 S.30/49 L.19/33/0/274 S.15/32/1/237 L.1 S.0)

   (06-LVL. -17 31-8 05-USF +20 45-14 04-LVL. -29' 41-9...SR: EVEN 2-2)

   *Wisconsin 33 - MINNESOTA 24--Minnesota has nothing left to play for except pride and Paul Bunyan's axe, but expect HC Brewster to elicit a solid effort against rival Wisconsin. Gopher QB Adam Weber running spread well. Key Badger offensive cogs QB Donovan (wrist/hand injury vs. Michigan), RB Hill (leg; just 5 carries for 14 yds. last 2 games), and backup RB Smith-Williams (can't travel) either won't be 100% or won't be available, so Minny defense might be able to build on respectable effort at Iowa.

   (06-WIS. 48-Minn. 12...W.21-12 W.44/208 M.29/106 W.12/19/0/193 M.13/28/1/94 W.2 M.1)

   (06-WIS. -8 48-12 05-Wis. +3' 38-34 04-WIS. -7 38-14...SR: Minnesota 59-49-8)

   *TCU 35 - Unlv 7--Late-season fades for UNLV (lost last 6) as familiar in Vegas as Wayne Newton, and Rebels now forced to give benched QB T. Dixon another look after promising frosh starter Clayton broke his throwing hand last week vs. SDSU. TCU "D" has ornery look again now that DE Blake has returned to action, and Frogs can still find themselves in bowl mix if they win their last two.

   (06-Tcu 25-UNLV 10...T.29-11 T.55/221 U.24/118 T.15/28/0/195 U.10/27/1/128 T.2 U.0)

   (06-Tcu -20 25-10 05-TCU -29 51-3...SR: TCU 4-1)

   *Southern Miss 42 - UTEP 35--RS frosh QB Trevor Vittatoe (22 TDP, only 4 ints.) has been a revelation for UTEP, which owns more overall firepower than Southern Miss. But Miners' defensive shortcomings too acute to ignore, as they've allowed 44 ppg over last 6. Star RB Fletcher (1087 YR) helps visiting Eagles (5-5) get eligible for minor bowl bid. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

   *RUTGERS 24 - Pittsburgh 16--Even if Panthers' blossoming true frosh RB McCoy (562 YR last 4 games) holds his own in battle with Knight star jr. RB Rice (4414 YR in career), experienced QB Teel (check status) & Rutgers aerial attack should produce victory. But Pitt has become harder to beat as true frosh QB Bostick has gained experience.

   (06-Rut. 20-PITT 10...R.17-12 R.48/268 P.26/67 P.16/26/0/169 R.10/18/0/72 R.0 P.1)

   (06-Rut. +6' 20-10 05-RUT. P 37-29 04-PITT -5 41-17...SR: Pittsburgh 19-5)

   *ILLINOIS 35 - Northwestern 21--Realize Illinois in potential upset-letdown spot after stunning win at Ohio State, but Illini hold too many fundamental edges to rely strictly on psychology. Illinois has much more team speed than Northwestern, and streaky NW QB Bacher has 9 ints. in the last 3 games. Illinois owns Big Ten's leading rusher in Rashard Mendenhall, and the Illini defense holds foes to just 19 ppg compared with NW's 30 ppg allowance. QB Juice Williams much more effective lately, with 6 TD passes in last 2 games.

   (06-NWSTRN. 27-Ill. 16...N.25-7 I.26/214 N.52/95 N.22/30/0/269 I.4/18/0/65 N.2 I.3)

   (06-NWU +2' 27-16 05-Nwu -15 38-21 04-NWU -12' 28-21 (OT)...SR: Illinois 51-44-5)

   ADDED GAMES

   ALABAMA 45 - La.-Monroe 13--After failing to score a TD in 17-12 loss at Mississippi State, look for Bama offense to come out smoking vs. overmatched ULM defense that allowed a combined 103 pts. in earlier one-sided losses at Clemson & Texas A&M. Tide QB J. P. Wilson, who has made several critical, outcome-changing mistakes last couple weeks, should finally please no-nonsense "Nicktator" in this anticipated torching in Tuscaloosa, similar to '06 result (Bama a 41-7 winner).

   (06-ALA. 41-La.-Mon. 7...A.22-10 A.43/219 L.30/123 A.15/23/0/225 L.10/21/1/73 A.1 L.1)

   (06-ALABAMA -24' 41-7...SR: Alabama 1-0)

   *La.-Lafayette 25 - FLORIDA INTL. 24--The last time win-starved FIU (21 straight losses!) tasted victory, the GOP controlled both the House and Senate. But Golden Panthers came close to elusive triumph in last outing at Arkansas State. And despite presence of Bobby Douglass-like ULL QB Desormeaux (leads all nation's QBs, Tim Tebow included, in rush yards with 1105), 2-8 Ragin' Cajuns hardly fit profile of reliable chalk.

   (06-La.-Laf. 17-FLA. INTL. 7...L.19-8 L.55/270 F.19/53 F.17/32/1/137 L.8/20/1/84 L.1 F.0)

   (06-Ull -4' 17-7 05-ULL -9 28-7 04-Ull -7' 43-34...SR: La.-Lafayette 4-0)

   *FLORIDA 54 - Florida Atlantic 10--With Florida's electric Mr. Tebow (leads nation in pass efficiency; accounted for all 7 TDs vs. USC!) able to generate 51 pts. at South Carolina sans speedy WR Harvin (sinus condition; expected back), high-powered Gators (41 ppg) overwhelm outmanned FAU, which has yielded 45 ppg vs. major foes last 1+Ys. And with potential recruits in attendance, doubt UF's hard-drivin' mentor Meyer shows much mercy vs. Owls legendary, pipe-smokin' HC Schnellenberger. (FIRST MEETING)

   COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

   KANSAS by 38 over Iowa State

   DUKE by 7 over Notre Dame

   MARYLAND by 4 over Florida State

   TCU by 28 over UN Las Vegas

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 13 2007 2:10pm
2. 0 likes

   Big dogs

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   seven big dogs for this week.NorthCarolina,Vandy,MississippiState,NewMexic o,Pittsburg,Miamifla, WesternMichigan

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 13 2007 2:11pm
3. 0 likes

   POINTWISE

   COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

   CENTRAL MICHIGAN over East Mich RATING: 1

   KANSAS over Iowa State RATING: 1

   CLEMSON over Boston College RATING: 2

   UTAH over New Mexico RATING: 3

   MIAMI-FLORIDA over Virginia Tech RATING: 4

   TCU over Unlv RATING: 4

   MEMPHIS over Uab RATING: 5

   TEXAS TECH over Oklahoma RATING

   NFL KEY RELEASES

   NEW ORLEANS over Houston RATING: 3

   JACKSONVILLE over San Diego RATING: 4

   NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo RATING: 4

   DETROIT over New York Giants RATING: 5

   MIAMI over Philadelphia RATING: 5

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 13 2007 2:11pm
4. 0 likes

   Winning Points

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NFL Best Bets

   **** Arizona over Cincinnati by 16

   *** St'Louis over San Francisco by 14

   Preferred

   New England over Buffalo by 6

   New York Jets over Pittsburgh by 1

   College Best Bets

   ****Clemson over Boston College by 28

   *** San Diego St over Air force by 4

   Preferred

   Central Mich over Eastern Mich by 24

   Notre Dame over Duke by 19

   Purdue over Indiana by 12

   NC State over Wake forest by 6

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 14 2007 2:07pm
5. 0 likes

   marc l

   JUST CHILLIN'

   Posted: 2007-11-12

   "Livin' for the weekend. Jumpin' off the deep end.

   Leave me alone, I got a licence to chill,

   and I believe I will.”

   Weekends are the reward for a job well done. The time to kick back, relax, and let it all hang out. And if you're the kind who just can't make it to the weekend you'll be glad to know that in Jimmy Buffett's world it's 5:00 o'clock somewhere and it's Margaritaville. No stress. No strain. Just a cold one, or two, to take the edge off.

   For workaholics, however, chilling is just another word for the office air conditioner being set too low. Weekends are a time to button up all the loose ends and catch up on the work not quite completed. For college football teams, chillin' is a week off during the season. It's a time to heal battered bodies and take a breather from the physical pounding and pressure of knocking heads with the enemy.

   When it comes to dealing with a week of rest in college football, one thing is absolutely for certain. Teams playing at home with the combination of rest and revenge are definitely the 'right side of the game'. That confirmed by the fact that, entering this season, since 1980 all teams in this role are 353-294-7 ATS - or a 54.5% winning proposition. Better yet, bring them in off a confidence-building win and they improve mightily to 187-133-3 (58.4%) ATS. Last year alone was no exception to the rule as rested homers, playing at home off a win with rest and revenge, went 11-4 ATS. FYI: the better the team the better the result, as teams with a win percentage of more than .250 approach the 60% win level.

   Knowing we had created a solid 59% wining angle based on over 350 results, I went in search of looking for a nice subset that could win in a breeze. What I found was simple. By using the same recipe I found that if I were to -

   PLAY ON any college conference home dog or 'pick' in

   their Last Home Game of the season that is playing

   off a win with rest and revenge.

   it would result in a cool 24-7 ATS wining situation. To that I say, hey bartender, set me up with another one! We can make it an ice-cold one simply by also bring the opponent in off a win as our angle zooms up to 22-3 ATS in this role. Now that's what I call a genuine thirst quenching libation. Oh yeah, there was one qualifying play on last year’s card and it went down real smooth when UCLA (+12.5) beat USC, 13-9! And, there’s one play on this week’s card - are you ready for this frosty one… it’s Ole Miss plus the bundle of points against LSU!

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 14 2007 2:07pm
6. 0 likes

   TOM SCOTT’S ANGLE OF THE WEEK

   Posted: 2007-11-13

   There are situations in the NFL where it is more prudent to ignore the choice of a side and, rather, to concentrate on the total. One of those situations occurs this week and, although rare, it provides us with a very profitable angle. What we are looking for is a game in which one team played poorly and the other team played very well. This angle works even better when the team who was shutout did not have a scoring explosion in the game before the shutout loss. We define "poorly" as scoring no points, "very well" as scoring 31 or more and "scoring explosion" as 28 or more points scored. With those definitions in place, we present this week’s angle:

   PLAY the UNDER in any NFL game in which one of the participants scored 31 or more in his last game while the opponent was shut out in his last game if that opponent scored 27 or less in the game before the shutout loss.

   26 Year ATS = 29-8 for 78.4% winners.

   This week’s play = UNDER in the Saint Louis-San Francisco game.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 14 2007 2:07pm
7. 0 likes

   marc l

   fast fact

   Louisville head coach Steve Kragthorpe is a dangerous dog, going 12-1 ATS in his career as a dog against an opponent off win.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 14 2007 2:07pm
8. 0 likes

   marc l

   smart box

   LOOK OUT BELOW!

   When teams on a win streak reach the final game of the regular season, it’s frequently with a sigh of satisfaction. Contentment, though, often turns to bitter disappointment when they enter the season finale off a straight-up underdog win.

   Consider – since 1980 college conference teams off back-to-back victories are just 35-60-2 ATS if their last win was as an underdog. Worse yet, they dip to 15-34-2 ATS when seeking revenge against an opponent they lost to in their most recent meeting. Two teams find themselves in this role this week: Illinois and Iowa State.

   When cast into the role of a favorite in season finales, off back-to-back wins with the last as an underdog, they dip to 5-26 ATS if they covered the spread by more than 10 points in the upset win. And it they're off back-to-back ATS wins in this role, they are a dismal 3-22 ATS. Illinois will try and overcome this ‘return to earth’ phenomenon on Saturday.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 14 2007 2:08pm
9. 0 likes

   marc l

   stat of the week

   Arkansas is 19-0 ATS in SU conference wins when playing off a loss.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 14 2007 2:08pm
10. 0 likes

    nfl trends

    Sunday, November 18th

    San Diego at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST

    San Diego: 9-1 ATS vs. AFC South opponents

    Jacksonville: 1-7 ATS off BB Overs

    Kansas City at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST

    Kansas City: 5-1 ATS off BB ATS losses

    Indianapolis: 28-14 Over off a loss as a favorite

    Oakland at Minnesota, 1:00 EST

    Oakland: 2-9 ATS off 4+ losses

    Minnesota: 17-7 Over after allowing 450+ total yards

    Cleveland at Baltimore, 1:00 EST

    Cleveland: 10-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points

    Baltimore: 0-6 ATS vs. conference opponents

    Pittsburgh at NY Jets, 1:00 EST

    Pittsburgh: 13-4 ATS off BB home wins

    NY Jets: 0-7 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

    Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00 EST

    Tampa Bay: 15-5 Under in road games

    Atlanta: 5-15 ATS off 3+ ATS wins

    Arizona at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST

    Arizona: 19-8 Over as an underdog

    Cincinnati: 0-7 ATS at home after losing 2 of their last 3 games

    Miami at Philadelphia, 1:00 EST

    Miami: 6-15 ATS off an Under

    Philadelphia: 9-2 ATS off a division game

    New England at Buffalo, 1:00 EST

    New England: 8-1 ATS as a favorite

    Buffalo: 6-1 Over off a division win

    Washington at Dallas, 1:00 EST

    Washington: 15-30 ATS after allowing 30+ points

    Dallas: 6-0 ATS vs. conference opponents

    New Orleans at Houston, 1:00 EST

    New Orleans: 1-6 ATS off BB Overs

    Houston: 10-2 Over with a line of +3 to -3

    Carolina at Green Bay, 1:00 EST

    Carolina: 30-16 ATS away off an ATS loss

    Green Bay: 0-8 ATS at home off an Under

    NY Giants at Detroit, 4:15 EST

    NY Giants: 23-10 Under away in November

    Detroit: 3-7 ATS in November

    St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:15 EST

    St. Louis: 5-17 ATS playing with same-season revenge

    San Francisco: 21-8 ATS vs. St. Louis

    Chicago at Seattle, 8:15 EST NBC

    Chicago: 8-2 ATS off BB Unders

    Seattle: 0-9 ATS off division win by 21+ points

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    Monday, November 19th

    Tennessee at Denver, 8:30 EST ESPN

    Tennessee: 14-4 ATS as an underdog

    Denver: 1-10 ATS as a home favorite

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 14 2007 2:12pm
11. 0 likes

    ncaaf trends

    Wednesday, November 14th

    Akron at Miami OH, 7:30 EST ESPN2

    Akron: 0-6 ATS off a home game

    Miami OH: 10-3 Under off an Over

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    Thursday, November 15th

    Oregon at Arizona, 9:00 EST ESPN

    Oregon: 9-2 ATS off a home game

    Arizona: 7-18 ATS at home off a home win

    Added Game:

    North Texas at Arkansas State, 7:00 EST

    North Texas: 17-9 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points

    Arkansas State: 1-9 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    Friday, November 16th

    Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan, 7:00 EST

    Eastern Michigan: 17-7 Under playing on artificial turf

    Central Michigan: 12-0 ATS off a road game

    Hawaii at Nevada, 11:00 EST ESPN2

    Hawaii: 16-6 Over vs. conference opponents

    Nevada: 9-2 ATS after allowing 37+ points

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    Saturday, November 17th

    Western Michigan at Iowa, 12:00 EST

    Western Michigan: 1-7 ATS this season

    Iowa: 10-3 ATS vs. MAC opponents

    Kent State at Temple, 12:00 EST

    Kent State: 0-6 ATS off 4+ losses

    Temple: 11-2 Under as a home underdog

    North Carolina at Georgia Tech, 12:00 EST

    North Carolina: 0-6 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

    Georgia Tech: 11-2 Under off an Over

    Penn State at Michigan State, 12:00 EST

    Penn State: 1-9 ATS away after allowing 6 points or less

    Michigan State: 15-5 ATS at home off a conference win

    West Virginia at Cincinnati, 12:00 EST

    West Virginia: 8-1 ATS away off an ATS loss

    Cincinnati: 30-12 Under playing on artificial turf

    Syracuse at Connecticut, 12:00 EST

    Syracuse: 1-7 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games

    Connecticut: 7-0 ATS at home off a conference road loss

    Purdue at Indiana, 12:00 EST

    Purdue: 8-0 Under off BB losses

    Indiana: 1-6 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less

    Vanderbilt at Tennessee, 12:30 EST

    Vanderbilt: 6-0 Under off a conference game

    Tennessee: 7-0 ATS off BB home games

    Bowling Green at Buffalo, 1:00 EST

    Bowling Green: 0-6 ATS off BB games scoring 31+ points

    Buffalo: 5-1 ATS vs. conference opponents

    Tulsa at Army, 1:00 EST

    Tulsa: 8-1 ATS away off an ATS win

    Army: 1-6 ATS as a home underdog

    BYU at Wyoming, 2:00 EST

    BYU: 7-1 Over off a conference home win

    Wyoming: 1-11 ATS off 3+ conference games

    San Diego State at Air Force, 2:00 EST

    San Diego State: 1-9 ATS away off a road win

    Air Force: 6-1 ATS vs. conference opponents

    Mississippi State at Arkansas, 2:00 EST

    Mississippi State: 8-1 ATS in road games

    Arkansas: 13-4 Over in home games

    Utah State at New Mexico State, 2:00 EST

    Utah State: 2-16 ATS off a loss by 28+ points

    New Mexico State: 6-0 Over after losing 3 of their last 4 games

    Oklahoma State at Baylor, 2:00 EST

    Oklahoma State: 13-2 Over off an ATS loss

    Baylor: 2-10 ATS off BB conference games

    Oklahoma at Texas Tech, 2:00 EST

    Oklahoma: 16-6 Under after winning 8+ of their last 10 games

    Texas Tech: 21-7 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points

    Iowa State at Kansas, 2:00 EST

    Iowa State: 14-35 ATS away playing on artificial turf

    Kansas: 9-0 ATS this season

    Idaho at Boise State, 2:00 EST

    Idaho: 3-11 ATS off a straight up loss

    Boise State: 40-11 ATS off BB conference games

    Duke at Notre Dame, 2:30 EST

    Duke: 6-1 Over as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

    Notre Dame: 0-6 ATS at home off a home game

    Central Florida at SMU, 3:00 EST

    Central Florida: 6-1 Over off 3+ wins

    SMU: 2-10 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less

    Tulane at Rice, 3:00 EST

    Tulane: 5-15 ATS vs. conference opponents

    Rice: 8-1 ATS off a conference win

    Marshall at Houston, 3:30 EST

    Marshall: 1-9 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points

    Houston: 6-1 ATS off a conference loss

    Northern Illinois at Navy, 3:30 EST

    Northern Illinois: 2-10 ATS away after having 475+ total yards

    Navy: 20-8 ATS after having 475+ total yards

    UAB at Memphis, 3:30 EST

    UAB: 10-2 ATS away after allowing 37+ points

    Memphis: 2-13 ATS at home off a conference win

    California at Washington, 3:30 EST

    California: 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

    Washington: 0-7 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

    LSU at Mississippi, 3:30 EST

    LSU: 6-1 Under after gaining 575+ total yards

    Mississippi: 10-5 ATS vs. LSU

    Kentucky at Georgia, 3:30 EST

    Kentucky: 14-5 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points

    Georgia: 3-10 ATS off BB home wins

    Missouri at Kansas State, 3:30 EST

    Missouri: 6-1 Over playing on artifial turf

    Kansas State: 7-0 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points

    Ohio State at Michigan, 3:30 EST

    Ohio State: 17-6 ATS vs. conference opponents

    Michigan: 13-27 ATS after committing 3+ turnovers

    Miami FL at Virginia Tech, 3:30 EST

    Miami FL: 0-6 ATS off an Over

    Virginia Tech: 17-6 ATS vs. conference opponents

    Boston College at Clemson, 3:30 EST

    Boston College: 5-1 ATS as a road underdog

    Clemson: 9-2 Under off BB wins by 21+ points

    Maryland at Florida State, 3:30 EST

    Maryland: 7-1 ATS off ATS losses in 3 of their last 4 games

    Florida State: 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

    New Mexico at Utah, 5:30 EST

    New Mexico: 0-6 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

    Utah: 6-0 ATS off 3+ conference games

    Oregon State at Washington State, 6:30 EST

    Oregon State: 29-15 ATS off a conference win

    Washington State: 5-21 ATS off ATS wins in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

    San Jose State at Louisiana Tech, 7:00 EST

    San Jose State: 23-10 ATS off ATS losses in 2 of their last 3 games

    Louisiana Tech: 0-7 ATS off BB road games

    NC State at Wake Forest, 7:00 EST

    NC State: 1-7 ATS off 3+ conference games

    Wake Forest: 11-3 Under as a home favorite

    Louisville at South Florida, 7:00 EST

    Louisville: 9-21 ATS after committing 4+ turnovers

    South Florida: 7-0 Under off 3+ conference games

    Wisconsin at Minnesota, 7:00 EST

    Wisconsin: 5-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards

    Minnesota: 1-5 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

    UNLV at TCU, 7:30 EST

    UNLV: 2-12 ATS away on Saturdays

    TCU: 8-1 ATS off 3+ conference games

    Southern Miss at UTEP, 7:30 EST

    Southern Miss: 7-1 Under off a loss by 3 points or less

    UTEP: 1-8 ATS in November

    Pittsburgh at Rutgers, 7:45 EST

    Pittsburgh: 14-28 ATS away off an ATS loss

    Rutgers: 7-0 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

    Northwestern at Illinois, 8:00 EST

    Northwestern: 10-2 ATS away off BB games committing 3+ turnovers

    Illinois: 9-22 ATS at home after committing 1 or 0 turnovers

    Added Games:

    Louisiana Monroe at Alabama, 2:00 EST

    LA Monroe: 5-1 ATS off BB home games

    Alabama: 4-14 ATS in home games

    Louisiana Lafayette at Florida International, 7:00 EST

    LA Lafayette: 6-18 ATS as a favorite

    Florida Int: 8-4 Under off a conference loss

    Florida Atlantic at Florida, 7:00 EST

    Florida Atl: 0-6 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

    Florida: 5-1 Over off BB conference games

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 14 2007 2:12pm
12. 0 likes

    Power Sweep

    NCAA

    4* WVU

    3* BYU and Clemson

    2* Wisky, Washington, and Kansas

    Underdog: NC St

    NFL

    4* GB

    3* NE

    2* Clev and Zona

    Power ratings play: Pitt

    Pro Stat Paly: Zona

    Angles Play: Clev and Zona

    System Play: Clev

    (road team that lost by 3 or less as an away dog of 10 or more...1992-2006 15-4)

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 14 2007 2:13pm
13. 0 likes

    BURNS NFL SUNDAY

    RAVENS (-3 or better)

    Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Game Time: 11/18/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Reason: I'm taking the points with BALTIMORE. Who would have thought that the Browns ever would have been favored at Baltimore? The Ravens, who were -3.5 road favorites at Cleveland in September, were whopping -12.5 favorites the last time they hosted the Browns. The Ravens won that game by double-digits, improving to 4-0 the last four times they hosted the Browns, all four victories coming by double-digits. Despite this season's struggles, the Ravens remain a respectable 3-1 at home, allowing an average of just 15 points per game. Thats roughly half of what the Browns' allow (29.3) per week. Look for another strong game by the defense and for Boller to spark the offense, as the Ravens avenge the earlier loss and improve to 5-0 the last five meetings here.

    JETS (+7 or better)

    Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets Game Time: 11/18/2007 4:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Jets Reason: I'm taking the points with the NY JETS. The Steelers have been great at home but merely ordinary on the road, going 2-2 SU/ATS. Coming off an important and close (31-28) division win, they may be ripe for a bit of a letdown here. Despite coming up short, the Jets are coming off one of their best games (and a cover) of the season, losing by a field goal vs. the Redskins. They've had a bye since then and I expect them to be fully focused for this afternoon's game.. Note that the Jets are 2-0 ATS when coming off a bye the past two seasons and 12-6 ATS the last 18. Jets have 'covered' 12 of 15 at home when coming off a home loss. Meanwhile, we find the Steelers at an ugly 6-18-1 the last 25 times they were listed as non division road favorites. The Steelers are also just 0-3-1 ATS their last four road games played in the month of November. Expect them to have their hands full this afternoon.

    PANTHERS (+7 or better)

    Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers Game Time: 11/18/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Panthers Reason: I'm taking the points with CAROLINA. Favre and the Packers have been a great story and have certainly been playing well. This is a difficult "letdown/look-ahead" scheduling situation for them though as they're coming off a big divisional win over the Vikings and have an even bigger divisional game (Lions) on deck. Note that the Packers only loss this season occured after they had faced the Vikings the first time. That dropped the Packers to 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU) the last six times they were coming off a divisional win and a money-burning 2-10-2 ATS (5-9 SU) off a division game overall. Interestingly, the Packers are also 0-8 ATS the last eight times they played at home if their previous game finished below the total. Meanwhile, the Panthers have always thrived in the raod underdog role. The Panthers are 20-11-2 ATS as non-division road dogs and a profitable 30-16 ATS when playing a road game after coming off an ATS loss. In fact, tthe Panthers have been at their best on the road, going 4-1 SU/ATS while allowing a mere 15 points per game. Looking back a bit further and we find them at 13-6 SU and 12-6-1 ATS their last 19 road games overall. I expect them to give the Packers all they can handle, earning at least the cover.

    UNDER skins/cowboys (44 or better)

    Game: Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Game Time: 11/18/2007 4:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Dallas and Washington to finish UNDER the number. The fact that both teams are coming off back to back high-scoring games has helped caused this afternoon's over/under line to be extremely high. In fact, if we look back at the last 20 meetings in this series we find that NONE have had an over/under line higher than 45 (one was as low as 31) and that the vast majority had over/under lines in the mid to high 30s. Note that the last 13 straight of those meetings ALL produced 47 combined points or less and that those games averaged only 34.4 points. Last year's two meetings finished with 41 at Washington and 37 here at Dallas. Including that low-scoring contest, the UNDER is 9-2 the last 11 times that the Cowboys were listed as a favorite in this series. While the offense gets all the accolades, the Cowboys' defense has been getting better throughout the season and has allowed an average of just 17 points its last three games. The Skins defense wasn't at its best last weekend. However, they're still allowing a respectable 21 points per game for the season, despite the blowout loss vs. the Patriots. Knowing how explosive Dallas can be, I expect Gibbs and staff to have a relatively conservative gameplan in order to avoid another embarrassing blowout. The Cowboys have seen the UNDER go 9-5 the last 14 times (2-0 this season) they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 45.5 to 49. During the same stretch, the Skins have seen the UNDER go 6-3 when playing a road game with an over/under line in the same range. Note that the Skins have also seen the UNDER go 35-17-2 when facing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. During the same stretch, they've seen the UNDER go 80-61-4 when they've been listed as underdogs. That includes a highly profitable 13-3 mark the last 16 times they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. Look for this afternoon's game to be lower than expected once again with the final combined score falling beneath the inflated number. *NFC Total of the Month

    JACKSONVILLE (-4 or better)

    Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Game Time: 11/18/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars Reason: I'm laying the points with JACKSONVILLE. Both teams come off important victories. The Jaguars' win was arguably more impressive though, as they went into Tennessee and pounded what had been a red hot Titans squad. Granted, the Chargers did defeat the defending world champions, which is impressive in itself. However, they were rather fortunate to do so and barely won, despite Manning throwing a record number (6) of interceptions. The Chargers' offense certainly didn't fare too well. In fact, they managed just 177 total yards of offense. While I successfully played on the Chargers in their win against the Colts, I also had successfully played against them in their loss at Minnesota the previous week. One of the reasons that I played on the Vikings that week was that I have seen the Chargers struggle when playing these 1:00 EST games for years now. They're already 0-2 SU/ATS when playing an "early" game this season (losses at GB and Min) and even last year's nearly unbeatable team saw both its regular season losses occur when playing at 1:00 pm. Overall, the Chargers are just 1-3 SU/ATS on the road. The three losses came by an average of more than 16 points, all three coming by a minimum of a touchdown. Additionally, note that the Chargers are just 2-9 ATS the last 11 times they were listed as underdogs when coming off a SU win. Regardless of the time zone and/or situation, winning at Jacksonville is no easy task. Indeed, the Jags have won 14 of their last 20 home games. Note that 13 of those 14 wins came by at least a field goal and that 12 of those wins came by at least six points. Many of those victories came against elite teams too, such as Seattle, Indianapolis, Baltimore (when they were good) Pittsburgh and Dallas. Note that the Jags have cashed at a torrid 10-5-1 clip the last 16 times they were listed as home favorites and are 23-11-1 ATS at home versus non-division foes. While the Chargers are allowing 26.7 points per game on the road, the Jags are allowing a mere 16.5 at home. The home team is 2-0 SU/ATS in this series and I look for another win and cover for the home side this afternoon. *Personal Favorite

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 15 2007 3:07pm
14. 0 likes

    By Erick Smith, USA TODAY

    It seems so easy now. LSU and Oregon are on a collision course to play for the national title.

    Fans would embrace the game as the two teams seem more worthy than the other one-loss options.

    They appear destined to win the two toughest conferences in America.

    TALK BACK: Erick Smith chats Thursday, 1 p.m. ET

    Each of their missteps was forgivable. The Tigers fell in triple overtime at Kentucky. The Ducks lost when they fumbled on the goal line in the final minutes against California.

    FIND MORE STORIES IN: Florida | Tennessee | Oklahoma | Ohio State | Kansas | Big Ten | BCS | Bowl | Oregon | Boston College | Erick Smith

    All that remains is for LSU and Oregon to win their final three games. Or not.

    There is the little matter of Kansas. The little Jayhawks that could. Unknown at the start of the season and still an outsider.

    Kind of like the unwanted relative that you have to invite to your wedding. And they could spoil the party.

    They're certainly not going away. Not with an unbeaten mark and Missouri and probably Oklahoma left the schedule. That's two top-10 opponents to pad their credentials with poll voters and the computers.

    Meanwhile, LSU is probably going to face Tennessee in the SEC title game and Oregon only has Arizona, UCLA and Oregon State left on its slate.

    Could Kansas rise above either? An unbeaten Big 12 champion would be tough to deny. The Ducks appear the most vulnerable to losing out with Kansas two places and 60 points down in the polls. That margin would drastically shrink with Oklahoma falling away.

    The computers already have the Jayhawks ahead of Oregon. They could move past LSU with a strong closing kick.

    That would likely put the Ducks on the outside looking in as they were in 2002 when another Big 12 team, Nebraska, denied them a coveted spot in the title game.

    It will make for some restless nights in Eugene, which should become the second-largest concentration of Missouri and Oklahoma fans outside those respective states.

    No. 1 LSU at Mississippi, 3:30 p.m.

    The Tigers started their journey this season in the Magnolia State with a dominating effort against Mississippi State. Pounding the Rebels should provide a nice bookend to their road schedule. LSU 37, Mississippi 14.

    No. 2 Oregon at Arizona, 9 p.m. (Thursday)

    A rare Thursday night game in the Pac-10. How would anyone have known that so much would be riding on it for the Ducks. The raised stakes of defending the No. 2 spot in the BCS could put some additional pressure on Oregon against an improving Wildcats team that has found offensive life. Oregon 35, Arizona 28.

    No. 3 Oklahoma at Texas Tech, 8 p.m.

    If there is one weakness for the Sooners, it is their secondary. If the Red Raiders have one strength, it is their passing game. These two facts alone should make for an interesting game in Lubbock, where Oklahoma felt robbed two years ago by the same Big 12 officials that Tech coach Mike Leach got fined for criticizing this week. Oklahoma 44, Texas Tech 38.

    No. 4 Kansas vs. Iowa State, 3:30 p.m.

    The name Todd Reesing might not be known outside of Lawrence, but if the Jayhawks quarterback with 26 touchdowns and just four interceptions can navigate his team through three more wins, they may want to make a place for him in New York. Kansas 42, Iowa State 20.

    No. 5 West Virginia at No. 25 Cincinnati, 7:45 p.m.

    Connecticut might be tied with the Mountaineers at the top of the Big East standings, but the Bearcats are their biggest threat. Cincinnati might want to go a little easy in victory because it will need West Virginia to beat the Huskies and Pittsburgh to win the conference title and BCS berth. West Virginia 37, Cincinnati 33.

    No. 6 Missouri at Kansas State, 12:30 p.m.

    Chase Daniel should be enjoying watching film of Kansas State's secondary struggle against Nebraska. The highlights might keep him and the Tigers from looking too far ahead to next week's game against Kansas. Missouri 38, Kansas State 20.

    No. 7 Ohio State at No. 23 Michigan, noon

    It may be just as well that there are no national title implications on the line this year. Now both Buckeyes and Wolverines can focus on the two most important things: beating one another and reserving a Rose Bowl berth. Ohio State 26, Michigan 17.

    No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 20 Kentucky, 12:30 p.m.

    If this coaching thing doesn't work out, Mark Richt certainly has a career as a motivational speaker. First, he implores his team to be penalized for a touchdown celebration against Florida and then unveils black jerseys for the game against Auburn. The result was two impressive wins against the Bulldogs' biggest rivals. Georgia 31, Kentucky 23.

    No. 10 Virginia Tech vs. Miami, 3:30 p.m.

    Want to know how far the Hurricanes have fallen? Just watch last week's game against Virginia. If they couldn't respond in the team's final appearance at the Orange Bowl, don't expect much in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech 28, Miami 7.

    No. 12 Hawaii at Nevada, 11 p.m. (Friday)

    With their starting quarterback dealing with a concussion, the Warriors are more worried about Colt Brennan's health than the team's BCS hopes. Hawaii 35, Nevada 34.

    No. 14 Florida vs. Florida Atlantic, noon

    With their SEC schedule done, the Gators must sit back and hope for Tennessee and Georgia to lose. Playing the overmatched Owls should provide a decent diversion for a couple hours. Florida 49, Florida Atlantic 13.

    No. 15 Boise State vs. Idaho, 2 p.m.

    A long the lines of wondering if a tree makes a sound when falling in the woods, can a game be a rivalry if the same team wins all the time? The Broncos hope to find out. Boise State 50, Idaho 10.

    No. 16 Clemson vs. No. 18 Boston College, 7:45 p.m.

    Remember when the Eagles entered November unbeaten and Matt Ryan was the Heisman favorite? Hope BC fans had an opportunity to savor the moment. Clemson 30, Boston College 20.

    No. 19 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt, 2 p.m.

    Looks like Vols fans eager to see Phil Fulmer leave won't be getting their wish. Perhaps they should have stayed quiet. As more and more former players pledge support for Fulmer, the team seems to be inspired to play its best football of the season. Tennessee 31, Vanderbilt 16.

    No. 21 Illinois vs. Northwestern, noon

    Former Ohio State assistant Ron Zook isn't a popular man in Columbus these days. First he recruits the players to Florida that beat OSU in last year's title game. Then he takes Illinois into the Horseshoe and ends their championship hopes this season. Illinois 33, Northwestern 17.

    No. 24 Wisconsin at Minnesota, 3:30 p.m.

    Most coaches near the end of a 1-10 season don't want to hear any talk about an axe. Tim Brewster, however, would love to see his Gophers regain Paul Bunyan's Axe after three straight losses to the Badgers. Wisconsin 35, Minnesota 19.

    No. 22 Penn State at Michigan State, 3:30 p.m.

    As the cold win blows in the Big Ten, Penn State is left playing for bowl positioning and possible trip to Florida for the holidays. Meanwhile, the Spartans just reached bowl eligibility and need another win to ensure a warm climate destination. Penn State 28, Michigan State 24.

    Last week's record: 17-6 (12-11)

    Season record: 170-53 (103-102-1)

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 15 2007 6:19pm
15. 0 likes

    NCoast Early Bird

    Navy -15.5

    8-3 this year

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 15 2007 6:20pm
16. 0 likes

    Burns Big 10 GOM

    MICHIGAN (+3 or better)

    Game: Ohio State University vs. Michigan Game Time: 11/17/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Michigan Reason: I'm taking the points with MICHIGAN. The list of teams which have struggled the following game after suffering their first loss is a long one. Last week, after suffering their first loss, the Boston College Eagles lost outright vs. Maryland. Meanwhile, also last week, the Arizona State Sun Devils failed to cover vs. a banged-up UCLA team, after having suffered their first loss the previous week. There have been a ton of other "big name programs" and/or highly ranked teams which have also struggled (failed to cover) this season, the week after suffering their first loss. Some of them include LSU, South Florida, Florida, California, Clemson, Cincinnati, Rutgers and way back in September, Michigan. This week, it's Ohio State which is coming off its first loss of the season. While the Wolverines, who also lost last week, already learned how to "bounce back" from a loss, this is a new experience for the Buckeyes. I expect that to favor the Wolverines. Regardless of the situation, the Wolverines have thrived as underdogs. They were underdogs once this season and beat Penn State outright. Last season, they covered vs. these same Buckeyes (3 point loss at Ohio state) and won outright vs. underdogs vs. the Irish. (Note that two straight games in this series have now been decided by four points or less.) Looking back further and we find them at a highly profitable 7-1 ATS the last eight times they were getting points and 14-6 ATS the last 20. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, look for the Wolverines to be fully focusued on the important task at hand while the Buckeyes get caught thinking about "what might have been." *Big 10 GOM

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 15 2007 6:20pm
17. 0 likes

    Dr Bob

    Best Bet UNDER

    **UNDER - INDIANAPOLIS (-14.5) 25 Kansas City 8

    10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07

    Brodie Croyle will get this first career start this week in place of ineffective veteran Damon Huard, but things are likle to get worse for the Chiefs’ offense. Kansas City’s problems have more to do with the poor play of the offensive line than with the quarterback and Croyle has averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would combine to allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback. To make matters worse running back Larry Johnson is expected to miss his second straight game and Priest Holmes (3.0 ypr) has been even worse running behind that bad line than Johnson was (3.5 ypr). Kansas City has been 0.9 yards per play worse than average offensively this season (4.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and I expect them to be worse with Croyle at quarterback and Johnson on the sidelines. Success against a very good Colts’ defense is even more remote, as the Colts have yielded just 4.5 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit). The loss of DE Dwight Freeney is probably not going to be that significant given that Freeney has had just 9 sacks total in the last two seasons. The Colts’ offense hasn’t been quite as good without injured receiver Marvin Harrison, as Indy’s attack is just 0.3 yppl better than average without Harrison. Kansas City is solid defensively, allowing just 5.3 yppl and 19 points per game (to teams that would average 5.4 yppl and 21 points against an average defense), so don’t expect the Colts to erupt with too many points. My math model favors the Colts by 16 ½ points and projects just 33 total points to be scored. I couldn’t believe the total on this game was so high given that Kansas City’s offense is among the worst in the league and the Colts’ defense is among the best in the league. The total is high because the Colts have a reputation of playing in high scoring games, but Indy’s offense isn’t as good without Harrison and Kansas City is better than average defensively. Indianapolis has gone Under in 4 consecutive games and a total of 43 ½ points just doesn’t make sense. Kansas City’s average total points is just 34.2 points (15.0 on offense and 19.2 allowed) and the Chiefs have faced a schedule that combines to average 42.7 total points per game – so KC games are 8.5 points lower scoring that average. The Colts average total points is 46.0 points and they’ve faced teams that combine to average 42.7 points, so Indy games are 3.3 points higher scoring than what an average team would total against the same schedule. If Kansas City games are 8.5 points lower scoring than average and Colts games are 3.3 points higher scoring than average then a prediction based purely on compensated points would be a game that was 5.2 points lower scoring than average (-8.5 + 3.3). The league average total points is 42.4 points, so a total of 37 points is projected using the simple compensated points formula. That type of analysis is very simplistic and certainly not as accurate as my math model projections, but it clearly backs up the fact that the total is too high in this game. I’ll go UNDER in the Colts-Chiefs game in a 2-Star Best Bet at 41 points or higher.

    2 Star Selection

    **HOUSTON (-1.0) 31 New Orleans 24

    10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07

    I wrote a lot last week about how overrated the Saints were and they certainly proved my point with a convincing loss to the previously winless Rams as an 11 ½ point home favorite. Apparently people still seem to think that the 4-5 Saints are better than the 4- 5 Texans despite Houston having played a tougher schedule. The Saints are better than average offensively, averaging 5.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but Houston is even better offensively (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and get star receiver Andre Johnson back this week after missing the last 7 games. Houston’s pass attack averaged 8.3 yppp in the first two games with Johnson healthy against two decent pass defenses (Carolina and Kansas City) and Johnson had 262 receiving yards on the 20 passes thrown to him (which is a better average than even Randy Moss this year). Matt Schaub returns as the starting quarterback, but that really doesn’t make any difference given how well Sage Rosenfels played in his place (Schaub has averaged 7.8 yards per pass play) and I actually lowered Houston’s pass rating with Schaub returning (but then raised it back up about the same amount for the return of Johnson). The Saints’ recent win streak (before losing last week) had people thinking the Saints of last season had suddenly returned to form, but last year’s Saints were decent defensively while this year’s Saints have the worst pass defense I have seen in years (7.5 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.5 yppp against an average defensive team) and rate at 0.9 yppl worse than average overall (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl). The Saints do have a good run defense, but Houston has a bad rushing attack and will be happy to throw the football 50 times against the Saints’ porous secondary. Houston’s defense has problems too with top CB Dunta Robinson out for the season after getting injured in the first quarter against the Raiders. Based on his yards per passes thrown to receivers he’s covering, compared to the other cornerbacks on the team, Robinson is worth about 0.4 yppp and Houston’s defense goes from 0.6 yppl worse than average to 0.8 yppl worse than average without Robinson. That’s still better than the Saints’ defense, so Houston is better on offense and on defense and my math model favors Houston by 6 ½ points in this game. When my math model differs from the pointspread by 5 points or more the record is 191-132-8 ATS (59%), so the Texans are worth a play here based on the line value. I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

    2 Star Selection

    **DALLAS (-10.5) 32 Washington 12

    01:15 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-07

    Dallas hasn’t played a home game since October 21st, so look for the Cowboys to try to impress their home fans with a good effort against the division rival Redskins. Dallas applies to a very good 91-35-4 ATS home after 2 road games situation and the Cowboys also apply to a 74-26-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator, so I expect the Cowboys to be at their best. Being just average should be good enough given that Washington is suffering key injuries along the offensive line and in the defensive secondary. The Redskins lost starting CB Carlos Rogers a couple of weeks ago and star safety Sean Taylor will join Rogers on the sidelines for a few weeks after injuring his knee last week. You may have noticed the Eagles suddenly passing the ball with great success in their second half comeback once Taylor left the game and the Redskins lack of quality depth in the secondary will be tested again this week. Last season the Redskins were great with all their defensive backs playing and they were horrible in 8 games in which one of them was out and last week was the first indication of a Redskins’ pass defense going from the league’s best to average or worse (Philly averaged 8.0 yards per pass play and more than that after Taylor left the game). Dallas rivals New England as the league’s most potent offense (6.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they’ll move the ball against a banged up Redskins defense pretty easily. Washington’s offense hasn’t been very good since injuries hit the offensive line early in the season and Dallas has become a very good defense since playmaking LB Greg Ellis joined the lineup in week 4 (4.5 yppl allowed in 6 games to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). My math model favors Dallas by 14 points and the situation is clearly on their side. I’ll take Dallas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less and for 3-Stars at -10 or less (-115 odds or better) .

    Strong Opinion

    Oakland 19 MINNESOTA (-5.0) 18

    10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07

    Minnesota will be without star back Adrian Peterson while the Raiders welcome back quarterback Daunte Culpepper back into the huddle after struggling for a few weeks with Josh McCown at quarterback. Culpepper has been much better than McCown this season, as Culpepper has averaged 5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB, while McCown’s 5.1 yppp average came against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Oakland isn’t likely to run well against a great Vikings’ run defense (3.0 ypr allowed) but Culpepper will have decent success against an average Minnesota pass defense (6.6 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average defense). Minnesota’s offense will be much worse without Peterson, who had run for 1081 yards at an incredible 6.4 ypr in just 8 ½ games. Backup RB Chester Taylor has averaged a solid 4.2 ypr in two seasons with Vikings (5.0 ypr on 61 carries this season) and the Vikings will still be able to run with great success against a soft Raiders’ defensive front that has allowed an average of 5.0 ypr to teams that would combine to average only 3.8 ypr against an average team. Peterson will also be missed in the passing game, as his 10.0 yard average on the 22 passes thrown to him is very good and better than the 7/0 ypa that Taylor has averaged on the 19 passes thrown his way. The loss of Peterson is huge, but my math model still favors the Vikings by 7 ½ points in this game. Oakland, however, applies to a very strong 69-16-1 ATS road underdog situation that is tough to pass up. I’ll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.

    Strong Opinion

    JACKSONVILLE (-3.0) 26 San Diego 17

    10:00 AM Pacific, 18-Nov-07

    San Diego is coming off a Sunday night win over the Colts, but I think less of the Chargers now than I did before that upset win. San Diego averaged just 3.5 yards per play against Indy the week after averaging only 3.6 yppl in a loss to Minnesota. The defense played well in that game (4.6 yppl) but the fact that San Diego won by just 2 points despite having two kick returns for touchdowns and registering 6 takeaways is a bit alarming. The Jaguars get quarterback David Garrard back this week after backup Quinn Gray somehow managed to produce a 2-1 record in 3 starts and my math model favors the Jaguars by 3 points with Garrard under center. While there is no line value on either side the situation favors the home team. San Diego applies to a negative 24-60-2 ATS road letdown situation this week while Jacksonville applies to a 121-54-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 58-20-3 ATS when applying to a home team. The situations by themselves is not quite enough to make Jacksonville a Best Bet, as I like to have some line value to go along with the situational edge. I’ll consider Jacksonville a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.

    Strong Opinion

    NY JETS 19 Pittsburgh (-9.5) 22

    01:05 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-07

    The Jets are 1-8 with their only win coming by just 3 points at home against winless Miami, but New York should be better following their bye week as bad teams on a losing streak tend to play with renewed enthusiasm after a week off. In fact, underdogs with a win percentage of less than .125 and on a losing streaks of at least 3 games are now 24-3 ATS following their bye weeks with the 3 spread losses being by 1 ½ points, 1 point and 1 point. Miami just won for me in a Best Bet in that same situation last week and the Jets also apply to a 48-10-1 ATS home underdog after a bye angle. I can’t imagine Pittsburgh getting up for this game but my math model favors the Steelers by 11 ½ points with Kellen Clemens at quarterback for the Jets. The situation is strongly in favor of New York and I’m willing to give up a bit of line value to side with the Jets. I’ll consider New York a Strong Opinion at +8 or more and I’d take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points (at -115 odds or less).

    Strong Opinion

    BUFFALO 16 New England (-16.0) 26

    05:15 PM Pacific, 18-Nov-07

    The Patriots come out of their bye week unbeaten and beating teams by an average of 23 points per game, but the line has been over-adjusted for the fact that people are afraid to bet against Brady and company. Buffalo was whipped 7-38 in Foxboro in week 3 but the Bills are a different team now. Rookie quarterback Trent Edwards was making his first start of the season in that game and incumbent J.P. Losman has since returned to the starting lineup and is playing well, averaging 6.4 yards per pass play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB). Buffalo is also very different defensively after shaking up their lineup following that loss to the Patriots. In 6 games with their current defensive lineup the Bills have allowed just 5.0 yards per play and 14.5 points per game, including limiting a very potent Dallas offense to just 5.4 yppl and 25 points in a one point loss as a double-digit home underdog in week 5. Double-digit home underdogs are usually pretty good bets in the NFL and Buffalo applies to a solid 44-20-2 ATS double-digit home underdog situation that also applied in their near upset of Dallas. My math model favors New England by only 9 ½ points in this game, but the fact that the Patriots have been out-playing their stats by 6 points per game makes that projection a bit less meaningful. The Patriots aren’t likely to continue to out-play their stats by that many points (in past years they out-played their stats by about 2 points per game due to good coaching and redzone efficiency) and the situation favors the Bills so I’ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +14 ½ points or more and I’d take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:52pm
18. 0 likes

    NFL trends for Week 11

    -- Chargers failed to cover last five non-division road tilts.

    -- Arizona covered seven of last eight as a road dog.

    -- Lions are 5-1 as non-divisional home favorite.

    -- Cowboys covered two of last seven as division favorite.

    -- Vikings covered nine of last 12 as home favorite.

    -- Eagles covered just three of last 13 against the AFC.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:53pm
19. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    Dunkel Index

    FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 16

    Game 309-310: Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan

    Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 69.972; Central Michigan 90.973

    Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 21; 70

    Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 13; 66

    Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-13); Over

    Game 311-312: Hawaii at Nevada

    Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 96.000; Nevada 84.317

    Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 12; 72

    Vegas Line: Hawaii by 7 1/2; 79

    Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-7 1/2); Under

    SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 17

    Game 313-314: Western Michigan at Iowa

    Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 69.951; Iowa 91.414

    Dunkel Line: Iowa by 21 1/2; 38

    Vegas Line: Iowa by 14; 46 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-14); Under

    Game 315-316: Kent at Temple

    Dunkel Ratings: Kent 64.327; Temple 74.506

    Dunkel Line: Temple by 10; 44

    Vegas Line: Kent by 2 1/2; 47 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Temple (+2 1/2); Under

    Game 317-318: North Carolina at Georgia Tech

    Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 84.425; Georgia Tech 97.521

    Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 13; 40

    Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 10; 42 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-13); Under

    Game 319-320: Penn State at Michigan State

    Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 97.999; Michigan State 101.058

    Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 3; 54

    Vegas Line: Penn State by 3; 50 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3); Over

    Game 321-322: West Virginia at Cincinnati

    Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 109.874; Cincinnati 97.546

    Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 12; 52

    Vegas Line: West Virginia by 6 1/2; 55 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-6 1/2); Under

    Game 323-324: Syracuse at Connecticut

    Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 75.123; Connecticut 103.970

    Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 29; 39

    Vegas Line: Connecticut by 18; 46

    Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-18); Under

    Game 325-326: Purdue at Indiana

    Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 87.352; Indiana 90.443

    Dunkel Line: Indiana by 3; 56

    Vegas Line: Purdue by 2 1/2; 61 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2); Under

    Game 327-328: Vanderbilt at Tennessee

    Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 94.578; Tennessee 102.903

    Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 8 1/2; 48

    Vegas Line: Tennessee by 12; 52

    Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+12); Under

    Game 329-330: Bowling Green at Buffalo

    Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 73.925; Buffalo 79.445

    Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 57

    Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 1 1/2; 61 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+5 1/2); Under

    Game 331-332: Tulsa at Army

    Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 93.779; Army 71.228

    Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 22 1/2; 59

    Vegas Line: Tulsa by 14 1/2; 63 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-14 1/2); Under

    Game 333-334: BYU at Wyoming

    Dunkel Ratings: BYU 99.960; Wyoming 79.449

    Dunkel Line: BYU by 20 1/2; 51

    Vegas Line: BYU by 10 1/2; 46

    Dunkel Pick: BYU (-10 1/2); Over

    Game 335-336: San Diego State at Air Force

    Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 79.926; Air Force 95.238

    Dunkel Line: Air Force by 15 1/2; 51

    Vegas Line: Air Force by 10 1/2; 49

    Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-10 1/2); Over

    Game 337-338: Mississippi State at Arkansas

    Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 97.171; Arkansas 97.587

    Dunkel Line: Even; 53

    Vegas Line: Arkansas by 11; 51

    Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+11); Over

    Game 339-340: Utah State at New Mexico State

    Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 66.994; New Mexico State 67.570

    Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 1; 60

    Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 9 1/2; 63

    Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+9 1/2); Under

    Game 341-342: Oklahoma State at Baylor

    Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 99.570; Baylor 74.645

    Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 25; 61

    Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 14; 65

    Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-14); Under

    Game 343-344: Oklahoma at Texas Tech

    Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 109.151; Texas Tech 96.716

    Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 12 1/2; 62

    Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 7 1/2; 66

    Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-7 1/2); Under

    Game 345-346: Iowa State at Kansas

    Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 78.776; Kansas 111.606

    Dunkel Line: Kansas by 33; 54

    Vegas Line: Kansas by 25 1/2; 58

    Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-25 1/2); Under

    Game 347-348: Idaho at Boise State

    Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 65.202; Boise State 107.604

    Dunkel Line: Boise State by 42 1/2; 54

    Vegas Line: Boise State by 33; 64 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-33); Under

    Game 349-350: Duke at Notre Dame

    Dunkel Ratings: Duke 74.377; Notre Dame 87.127

    Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 13; 53

    Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 5; 48

    Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-5); Over

    Game 351-352: Central Florida at SMU

    Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 90.529; SMU 70.075

    Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 20 1/2; 68

    Vegas Line: Central Florida by 12 1/2; 72 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-12 1/2); Under

    Game 353-354: Tulane at Rice

    Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 74.389; Rice 73.487

    Dunkel Line: Tulane by 1; 75

    Vegas Line: Rice by 2; 70

    Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+2); Over

    Game 355-356: Marshall at Houston

    Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 79.828; Houston 86.629

    Dunkel Line: Houston by 7; 58

    Vegas Line: Houston by 12; 65

    Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+12); Under

    Game 357-358: Northern Illinois at Navy

    Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 61.179; Navy 84.972

    Dunkel Line: Navy by 24; 68

    Vegas Line: Navy by 15 1/2; 73

    Dunkel Pick: Navy (-15 1/2); Under

    Game 359-360: UAB at Memphis

    Dunkel Ratings: UAB 61.097; Memphis 80.656

    Dunkel Line: Memphis by 19 1/2; 57

    Vegas Line: Memphis by 11; 60

    Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-11); Under

    Game 361-362: California at Washington

    Dunkel Ratings: California 95.802; Washington 96.234

    Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 52

    Vegas Line: California by 7; 58

    Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Under

    Game 363-364: LSU at Mississippi

    Dunkel Ratings: LSU 109.006; Mississippi 80.030

    Dunkel Line: LSU by 29; 51

    Vegas Line: LSU by 18; 54

    Dunkel Pick: LSU (-18); Under

    Game 365-366: Kentucky at Georgia

    Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 102.806; Georgia 103.209

    Dunkel Line: Georgia by 1; 58

    Vegas Line: Georgia by 8; 61

    Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+8); Under

    Game 367-368: Missouri at Kansas State

    Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 111.887; Kansas State 83.980

    Dunkel Line: Missouri by 28;

    Vegas Line: Missouri by 7; 68

    Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-7);

    Game 369-370: Ohio State at Michigan

    Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 103.947; Michigan 105.184

    Dunkel Line: Michigan by 1; 53

    Vegas Line: Ohio State by 4; 49

    Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+4 1/2); Over

    Game 371-372: Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech

    Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 83.462; Virginia Tech 108.333

    Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 25; 44

    Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 16 1/2; 42

    Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-16 1/2); Over

    Game 373-374: Boston College at Clemson

    Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 102.798; Clemson 104.063

    Dunkel Line: Clemson by 1 1/2; 55

    Vegas Line: Clemson by 7 1/2; 52 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+7 1/2); Over

    Game 375-376: Maryland at Florida State

    Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 93.170; Florida State 96.738

    Dunkel Line: Florida State by 3 1/2; 49 1/2

    Vegas Line: Florida State by 7 1/2; 45

    Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+7 1/2); Over

    Game 377-378: New Mexico at Utah

    Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 92.065; Utah 104.450

    Dunkel Line: Utah by 12 1/2; 39 1/2

    Vegas Line: Utah by 14 1/2; 44 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+14 1/2); Under

    Game 379-380: Oregon State at Washington State

    Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 96.717; Washington State 93.885

    Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 3; 45

    Vegas Line: Washington State by 2 1/2; 49 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+2 1/2); Under

    Game 381-382: San Jose State at Louisiana Tech

    Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 77.498; Louisiana Tech 75.355

    Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 2; 56

    Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 6; 53

    Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+6); Over

    Game 383-384: North Carolina State at Wake Forest

    Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina State 92.001; Wake Forest 93.996

    Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 2; 54

    Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 6 1/2; 49

    Dunkel Pick: North Carolina State (+6 1/2); Over

    Game 385-386: Louisville at South Florida

    Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 94.411; South Florida 96.768

    Dunkel Line: South Florida by 2; 55

    Vegas Line: South Florida by 7; 62

    Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+7); Under

    Game 387-388: Wisconsin at Minnesota

    Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 100.863; Minnesota 81.478

    Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 19 1/2; 50

    Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 13 1/2; 57

    Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-13 1/2); Under

    Game 389-390: UNLV at TCU

    Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 71.664; TCU 102.512

    Dunkel Line: TCU by 31; 52

    Vegas Line: TCU by 17; 44 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: TCU (-17); Over

    Game 391-392: Southern Mississippi at UTEP

    Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 76.794; UTEP 80.499

    Dunkel Line: UTEP by 4; 58

    Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 3 1/2; 66

    Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+3 1/2); Under

    Game 393-394: Pittsburgh at Rutgers

    Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 84.111; Rutgers 98.077

    Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 14; 42

    Vegas Line: Rutgers by 11 1/2; 49

    Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-11 1/2); Under

    Game 395-396: Northwestern at Illinois

    Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 81.606; Illinois 103.361

    Dunkel Line: Illinois by 22; 48

    Vegas Line: Illinois by 13 1/2; 57

    Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-13 1/2); Under

    Game 397-398: UL Monroe at Alabama

    Dunkel Ratings: UL Monroe 68.106; Alabama 102.534

    Dunkel Line: Alabama by 34 1/2; 49

    Vegas Line: Alabama by 24 1/2; 54

    Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-24 1/2); Under

    Game 399-400: UL Lafayette at Florida International

    Dunkel Ratings: UL Lafayette 59.550; Florida International 60.044

    Dunkel Line: Florida International by 1; 59

    Vegas Line: UL Lafayette by 4 1/2; 54

    Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+4 1/2); Over

    Game 401-402: Florida Atlantic at Florida

    Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 72.270; Florida 107.843

    Dunkel Line: Florida by 35 1/2; 72

    Vegas Line: Florida by 34; 67

    Dunkel Pick: Florida (-34); Over

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:53pm
20. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    Long Sheet

    Week 12

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Friday, November 16

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    E MICHIGAN (3 - at C MICHIGAN (6 - 4) - 11/16/2007, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    C MICHIGAN is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

    C MICHIGAN is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    C MICHIGAN is 1-1 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons

    C MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HAWAII (9 - 0) at NEVADA (5 - 4) - 11/16/2007, 11:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    NEVADA is 2-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons

    NEVADA is 1-1 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Saturday, November 17

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    W MICHIGAN (3 - 7) at IOWA (6 - 5) - 11/17/2007, 3:35 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    W MICHIGAN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.

    W MICHIGAN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

    W MICHIGAN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.

    IOWA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons.

    IOWA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    IOWA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KENT ST (3 - 7) at TEMPLE (3 - 7) - 11/17/2007, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    KENT ST is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    KENT ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

    KENT ST is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    TEMPLE is 1-0 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons

    KENT ST is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    N CAROLINA (3 - 7) at GEORGIA TECH (6 - 4) - 11/17/2007, 12:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    N CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons

    GEORGIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PENN ST (8 - 3) at MICHIGAN ST (6 - 5) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    MICHIGAN ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

    MICHIGAN ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    MICHIGAN ST is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    MICHIGAN ST is 1-1 against the spread versus PENN ST over the last 3 seasons

    PENN ST is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    W VIRGINIA (8 - 1) at CINCINNATI (8 - 2) - 11/17/2007, 7:45 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    CINCINNATI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    CINCINNATI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

    CINCINNATI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    W VIRGINIA is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons

    W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SYRACUSE (2 - at CONNECTICUT (8 - 2) - 11/17/2007, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    CONNECTICUT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

    CONNECTICUT is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    CONNECTICUT is 1-1 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons

    CONNECTICUT is 1-1 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PURDUE (7 - 4) at INDIANA (6 - 5) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    INDIANA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in November games since 1992.

    INDIANA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    INDIANA is 1-1 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons

    PURDUE is 2-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    VANDERBILT (5 - 5) at TENNESSEE (7 - 3) - 11/17/2007, 2:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    TENNESSEE is 1-1 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons

    TENNESSEE is 1-1 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BOWLING GREEN (6 - 4) at BUFFALO (4 - 6) - 11/17/2007, 1:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons

    BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TULSA (7 - 3) at ARMY (3 - 7) - 11/17/2007, 12:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BYU (7 - 2) at WYOMING (5 - 5) - 11/17/2007, 2:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    WYOMING is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    WYOMING is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

    WYOMING is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

    WYOMING is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

    WYOMING is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

    WYOMING is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons

    BYU is 2-0 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN DIEGO ST (4 - 5) at AIR FORCE (8 - 3) - 11/17/2007, 2:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    SAN DIEGO ST is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

    AIR FORCE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.

    AIR FORCE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

    AIR FORCE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

    AIR FORCE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    AIR FORCE is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons

    AIR FORCE is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MISSISSIPPI ST (6 - 4) at ARKANSAS (6 - 4) - 11/17/2007, 2:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    MISSISSIPPI ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

    MISSISSIPPI ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

    MISSISSIPPI ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    ARKANSAS is 1-1 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons

    ARKANSAS is 2-0 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UTAH ST (0 - 10) at NEW MEXICO ST (4 - 7) - 11/17/2007, 2:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    NEW MEXICO ST is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    NEW MEXICO ST is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    NEW MEXICO ST is 19-37 ATS (-21.7 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    NEW MEXICO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons

    NEW MEXICO ST is 1-1 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OKLAHOMA ST (5 - 5) at BAYLOR (3 - - 11/17/2007, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    BAYLOR is 49-73 ATS (-31.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    BAYLOR is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

    BAYLOR is 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) in November games since 1992.

    BAYLOR is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

    BAYLOR is 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    BAYLOR is 49-74 ATS (-32.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    BAYLOR is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons

    BAYLOR is 1-1 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OKLAHOMA (9 - 1) at TEXAS TECH (7 - 4) - 11/17/2007, 8:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    TEXAS TECH is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    TEXAS TECH is 51-27 ATS (+21.3 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    TEXAS TECH is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.

    TEXAS TECH is 70-46 ATS (+19.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    TEXAS TECH is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

    TEXAS TECH is 52-28 ATS (+21.2 Units) in home games since 1992.

    TEXAS TECH is 52-28 ATS (+21.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

    OKLAHOMA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    OKLAHOMA is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons

    TEXAS TECH is 1-1 straight up against OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    IOWA ST (3 - at KANSAS (10 - 0) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    IOWA ST is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.

    KANSAS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.

    KANSAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.

    KANSAS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.

    KANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

    KANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.

    KANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.

    KANSAS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

    KANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite this season.

    KANSAS is 45-74 ATS (-36.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

    KANSAS is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in November games since 1992.

    KANSAS is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    KANSAS is 2-0 against the spread versus IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons

    KANSAS is 2-0 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    IDAHO (1 - 9) at BOISE ST (9 - 1) - 11/17/2007, 3:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    BOISE ST is 70-41 ATS (+24.9 Units) in all games since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 48-25 ATS (+20.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 48-18 ATS (+28.2 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 25-7 ATS (+17.3 Units) in November games since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 43-17 ATS (+24.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 25-7 ATS (+17.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 70-41 ATS (+24.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 39-16 ATS (+21.4 Units) in home games since 1992.

    BOISE ST is 39-16 ATS (+21.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    BOISE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus IDAHO over the last 3 seasons

    BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DUKE (1 - 9) at NOTRE DAME (1 - 9) - 11/17/2007, 2:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    NOTRE DAME is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UCF (7 - 3) at SMU (1 - 9) - 11/17/2007, 3:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    UCF is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    SMU is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TULANE (3 - 7) at RICE (3 - 7) - 11/17/2007, 3:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    TULANE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    TULANE is 49-74 ATS (-32.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

    RICE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

    RICE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

    RICE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.

    RICE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

    RICE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    RICE is 1-1 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons

    RICE is 1-1 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MARSHALL (2 - at HOUSTON (6 - 4) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    MARSHALL is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

    MARSHALL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

    MARSHALL is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

    MARSHALL is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    HOUSTON is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in November games since 1992.

    HOUSTON is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    N ILLINOIS (2 - at NAVY (6 - 4) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    NAVY is 96-66 ATS (+23.4 Units) in all games since 1992.

    NAVY is 91-61 ATS (+23.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    NAVY is 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    NAVY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in November games since 1992.

    NAVY is 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    NAVY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    NAVY is 96-66 ATS (+23.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UAB (2 - at MEMPHIS (5 - 5) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    UAB is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

    MEMPHIS is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    UAB is 1-0 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons

    UAB is 2-0 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CALIFORNIA (6 - 4) at WASHINGTON (3 - 7) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    CALIFORNIA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

    CALIFORNIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

    CALIFORNIA is 32-53 ATS (-26.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    CALIFORNIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.

    WASHINGTON is 46-72 ATS (-33.2 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    WASHINGTON is 1-1 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons

    CALIFORNIA is 2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LSU (9 - 1) at OLE MISS (3 - 7) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    LSU is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    OLE MISS is 1-1 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons

    LSU is 2-0 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KENTUCKY (7 - 3) at GEORGIA (8 - 2) - 11/17/2007, 12:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    GEORGIA is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    GEORGIA is 1-1 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons

    GEORGIA is 1-1 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MISSOURI (9 - 1) at KANSAS ST (5 - 5) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    KANSAS ST is 53-31 ATS (+18.9 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    KANSAS ST is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    KANSAS ST is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.

    KANSAS ST is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

    KANSAS ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

    KANSAS ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.

    KANSAS ST is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in home games since 1992.

    KANSAS ST is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

    MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    KANSAS ST is 1-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons

    KANSAS ST is 1-1 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OHIO ST (10 - 1) at MICHIGAN (8 - 3) - 11/17/2007, 12:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    MICHIGAN is 1-1 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons

    OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIAMI (5 - 5) at VIRGINIA TECH (8 - 2) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    MIAMI is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

    MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

    MIAMI is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    VIRGINIA TECH is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    VIRGINIA TECH is 82-58 ATS (+18.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    VIRGINIA TECH is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

    VIRGINIA TECH is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BOSTON COLLEGE (8 - 2) at CLEMSON (8 - 2) - 11/17/2007, 7:45 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons

    BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 straight up against CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MARYLAND (5 - 5) at FLORIDA ST (6 - 4) - 11/17/2007, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    FLORIDA ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    MARYLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons

    FLORIDA ST is 1-1 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW MEXICO (7 - 3) at UTAH (7 - 3) - 11/17/2007, 5:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    NEW MEXICO is 2-0 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons

    NEW MEXICO is 2-0 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OREGON ST (6 - 4) at WASHINGTON ST (4 - 6) - 11/17/2007, 6:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    OREGON ST is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

    OREGON ST is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons

    WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 straight up against OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN JOSE ST (4 - 6) at LOUISIANA TECH (4 - 6) - 11/17/2007, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    SAN JOSE ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    SAN JOSE ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    SAN JOSE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons

    LOUISIANA TECH is 1-1 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NC STATE (5 - 5) at WAKE FOREST (6 - 4) - 11/17/2007, 4:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    WAKE FOREST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    WAKE FOREST is 2-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons

    WAKE FOREST is 2-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LOUISVILLE (5 - 5) at S FLORIDA (7 - 3) - 11/17/2007, 8:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    S FLORIDA is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons

    S FLORIDA is 1-1 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WISCONSIN (8 - 3) at MINNESOTA (1 - 10) - 11/17/2007, 3:30 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    WISCONSIN is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

    WISCONSIN is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    UNLV (2 - at TCU (5 - 5) - 11/17/2007, 7:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    UNLV is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    UNLV is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    TCU is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

    TCU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    TCU is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    TCU is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

    TCU is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    TCU is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    TCU is 1-1 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons

    TCU is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SOUTHERN MISS (5 - 5) at UTEP (4 - 6) - 11/17/2007, 7:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    UTEP is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

    UTEP is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PITTSBURGH (4 - 5) at RUTGERS (6 - 4) - 11/17/2007, 12:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    RUTGERS is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons

    RUTGERS is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NORTHWESTERN (6 - 5) at ILLINOIS (8 - 3) - 11/17/2007, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    ILLINOIS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

    ILLINOIS is 46-74 ATS (-35.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

    ILLINOIS is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) in home games since 1992.

    ILLINOIS is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    NORTHWESTERN is 2-0 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons

    NORTHWESTERN is 2-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA MONROE (4 - 6) at ALABAMA (6 - 4) - 11/17/2007, 2:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    LA MONROE is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992.

    ALABAMA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    ALABAMA is 29-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    ALABAMA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    ALABAMA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    ALABAMA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

    ALABAMA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

    ALABAMA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    ALABAMA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA MONROE over the last 3 seasons

    ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against LA MONROE over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA LAFAYETTE (2 - at FLA INTERNATIONAL (0 - 9) - 11/17/2007, 7:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    LA LAFAYETTE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

    FLA INTERNATIONAL is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    LA LAFAYETTE is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons

    LA LAFAYETTE is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FLA ATLANTIC (5 - 4) at FLORIDA (7 - 3) - 11/17/2007, 12:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    FLA ATLANTIC is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

    FLA ATLANTIC is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:53pm
21. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    Short Sheet

    Week 12

    Friday, November 16th

    Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan, 7:00 EST

    Eastern Michigan: 17-7 Under playing on artificial turf

    Central Michigan: 12-0 ATS off a road game

    Hawaii at Nevada, 11:00 EST ESPN2

    Hawaii: 16-6 Over vs. conference opponents

    Nevada: 9-2 ATS after allowing 37+ points

    Saturday, November 17th

    (TC) Western Michigan at Iowa, 3:30 EST

    Western Michigan: 1-7 ATS this season

    Iowa: 10-3 ATS vs. MAC opponents

    Kent State at Temple, 12:00 EST

    Kent State: 0-6 ATS off 4+ losses

    Temple: 11-2 Under as a home underdog

    North Carolina at Georgia Tech, 12:00 EST

    North Carolina: 0-6 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

    Georgia Tech: 11-2 Under off an Over

    (TC) Penn State at Michigan State, 3:30 EST

    Penn State: 1-9 ATS away after allowing 6 points or less

    Michigan State: 15-5 ATS at home off a conference win

    (TC) West Virginia at Cincinnati, 7:45 EST

    West Virginia: 8-1 ATS away off an ATS loss

    Cincinnati: 30-12 Under playing on artificial turf

    Syracuse at Connecticut, 12:00 EST

    Syracuse: 1-7 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games

    Connecticut: 7-0 ATS at home off a conference road loss

    (TC) Purdue at Indiana, 3:30 EST

    Purdue: 8-0 Under off BB losses

    Indiana: 1-6 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less

    (TC) Vanderbilt at Tennessee, 2:00 EST

    Vanderbilt: 6-0 Under off a conference game

    Tennessee: 7-0 ATS off BB home games

    Bowling Green at Buffalo, 1:00 EST

    Bowling Green: 0-6 ATS off BB games scoring 31+ points

    Buffalo: 5-1 ATS vs. conference opponents

    (TC) Tulsa at Army, 12:00 EST

    Tulsa: 8-1 ATS away off an ATS win

    Army: 1-6 ATS as a home underdog

    BYU at Wyoming, 2:00 EST

    BYU: 7-1 Over off a conference home win

    Wyoming: 1-11 ATS off 3+ conference games

    San Diego State at Air Force, 2:00 EST

    San Diego State: 1-9 ATS away off a road win

    Air Force: 6-1 ATS vs. conference opponents

    Mississippi State at Arkansas, 2:00 EST

    Mississippi State: 8-1 ATS in road games

    Arkansas: 13-4 Over in home games

    Utah State at New Mexico State, 2:00 EST

    Utah State: 2-16 ATS off a loss by 28+ points

    New Mexico State: 6-0 Over after losing 3 of their last 4 games

    (TC) Oklahoma State at Baylor, 7:00 EST

    Oklahoma State: 13-2 Over off an ATS loss

    Baylor: 2-10 ATS off BB conference games

    (TC) Oklahoma at Texas Tech, 8:00 EST

    Oklahoma: 16-6 Under after winning 8+ of their last 10 games

    Texas Tech: 21-7 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points

    (TC) Iowa State at Kansas, 3:30 EST

    Iowa State: 14-35 ATS away playing on artificial turf

    Kansas: 9-0 ATS this season

    Idaho at Boise State, 2:00 EST

    Idaho: 3-11 ATS off a straight up loss

    Boise State: 40-11 ATS off BB conference games

    Duke at Notre Dame, 2:30 EST

    Duke: 6-1 Over as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

    Notre Dame: 0-6 ATS at home off a home game

    Central Florida at SMU, 3:00 EST

    Central Florida: 6-1 Over off 3+ wins

    SMU: 2-10 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less

    Tulane at Rice, 3:00 EST

    Tulane: 5-15 ATS vs. conference opponents

    Rice: 8-1 ATS off a conference win

    Marshall at Houston, 3:30 EST

    Marshall: 1-9 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points

    Houston: 6-1 ATS off a conference loss

    Northern Illinois at Navy, 3:30 EST

    Northern Illinois: 2-10 ATS away after having 475+ total yards

    Navy: 20-8 ATS after having 475+ total yards

    UAB at Memphis, 3:30 EST

    UAB: 10-2 ATS away after allowing 37+ points

    Memphis: 2-13 ATS at home off a conference win

    California at Washington, 3:30 EST

    California: 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

    Washington: 0-7 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

    LSU at Mississippi, 3:30 EST

    LSU: 6-1 Under after gaining 575+ total yards

    Mississippi: 10-5 ATS vs. LSU

    (TC) Kentucky at Georgia, 12:30 EST

    Kentucky: 14-5 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points

    Georgia: 3-10 ATS off BB home wins

    (TC) Missouri at Kansas State, 12:30 EST

    Missouri: 6-1 Over playing on artifial turf

    Kansas State: 7-0 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points

    (TC) Ohio State at Michigan, 12:00 EST

    Ohio State: 17-6 ATS vs. conference opponents

    Michigan: 13-27 ATS after committing 3+ turnovers

    Miami FL at Virginia Tech, 3:30 EST

    Miami FL: 0-6 ATS off an Over

    Virginia Tech: 17-6 ATS vs. conference opponents

    (TC) Boston College at Clemson, 7:45 EST

    Boston College: 5-1 ATS as a road underdog

    Clemson: 9-2 Under off BB wins by 21+ points

    (TC) Maryland at Florida State, 12:00 EST

    Maryland: 7-1 ATS off ATS losses in 3 of their last 4 games

    Florida State: 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

    New Mexico at Utah, 5:30 EST

    New Mexico: 0-6 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

    Utah: 6-0 ATS off 3+ conference games

    Oregon State at Washington State, 6:30 EST

    Oregon State: 29-15 ATS off a conference win

    Washington State: 5-21 ATS off ATS wins in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

    San Jose State at Louisiana Tech, 7:00 EST

    San Jose State: 23-10 ATS off ATS losses in 2 of their last 3 games

    Louisiana Tech: 0-7 ATS off BB road games

    (TC) NC State at Wake Forest, 4:00 EST

    NC State: 1-7 ATS off 3+ conference games

    Wake Forest: 11-3 Under as a home favorite

    (TC) Louisville at South Florida, 8:00 EST

    Louisville: 9-21 ATS after committing 4+ turnovers

    South Florida: 7-0 Under off 3+ conference games

    (TC) Wisconsin at Minnesota, 3:30 EST

    Wisconsin: 5-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards

    Minnesota: 1-5 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

    UNLV at TCU, 7:30 EST

    UNLV: 2-12 ATS away on Saturdays

    TCU: 8-1 ATS off 3+ conference games

    Southern Miss at UTEP, 7:30 EST

    Southern Miss: 7-1 Under off a loss by 3 points or less

    UTEP: 1-8 ATS in November

    (TC) Pittsburgh at Rutgers, 12:00 EST

    Pittsburgh: 14-28 ATS away off an ATS loss

    Rutgers: 7-0 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

    (TC) Northwestern at Illinois, 12:00 EST

    Northwestern: 10-2 ATS away off BB games committing 3+ turnovers

    Illinois: 9-22 ATS at home after committing 1 or 0 turnovers

    Added Games:

    (TC) Louisiana Monroe at Alabama, 2:30 EST

    LA Monroe: 5-1 ATS off BB home games

    Alabama: 4-14 ATS in home games

    Louisiana Lafayette at Florida International, 7:00 EST

    LA Lafayette: 6-18 ATS as a favorite

    Florida Int: 8-4 Under off a conference loss

    (TC) Florida Atlantic at Florida, 12:00 EST

    Florida Atl: 0-6 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

    Florida: 5-1 Over off BB conference games

    ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:54pm
22. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    Write-up

    Friday's Games

    Underdog is 12-5 vs spread in Central-Eastern Michigan games, with last three all going OT; Chippewas won five of their last six games (losing only to Clemson) are 5-0 in MAC, winning home games by 21-25 pts- they’re 4-1 vs spread as favorite. The teams that beat Central held them to 22 or less points. Eastern held one of last seven foes under 26; they’re 3-7 vs spread as dog this season, 2-4 as road dog, with away losses by 24- 23-11-6-24 pts. All that, despite being +8 in turnovers their last five games.

    Hawai’i QB Brennan was cleared to play after concussion last week; Warriors are 4-0 on road this year, scoring 46 pg, but they needed OT to win at La Tech, San Jose (2-2 as road fave). Home side won last seven Hawai’i-Nevada games (6-1 vs spread), with Wolf Pack taking last two played here, 24-14/38-28. Nevada won last three games, scoring 36 pg, but they’ve allowed 36+ in five of nine games (1-4 in those, 4-0 in the others)- they had last week off, while Hawai’is travelling after beating Fresno Saturday

    Saturday’s Games

    Top Ten Games

    Penn State beat Michigan State the last three years, 37-13/31-22/ 17-13; home side covered 10 of last 14 series games. Spartans lost five of last seven after 4-0 start; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games- they allowed 32.7 pg in last seven. Lions won five of last six games; they’re 2-2 on the road, winning at Indiana (36-31), Temple (31-0). MSU is 4-2 at home, 1-2 in last three, losing to Northwestern (48-41ot), Michigan (28-24, when they led by 10 with 7:00 left).

    West Virginia won three of last four vs. Bearcats, winning last two years by 38-0/42-24 scores; home side is 4-0-1 vs spread in series. WVa won last four games since upset at South Florida, winning by 41-25-28-7 points- they’re 6-2-1 vs spread this year, all as favorite, 3-1-1 as road fave, with wins by 25-17-41-28 points. Bearcats held eight of nine D-I foes under 100 rushing yards this year (Pitt had 260). -- four of UC’s last five games stayed under total.

    Purdue won the Old Oaken Bucket last five years, by margins of

    24-8-39-27-9 points, winning the last two visits here, 24-16/41-14. Boilers are 2-4 in last six games after 5-0 start- they lost last two road games. Indiana lost four of last five games after 5-1 start; they blew game last week, letting freshman sub QB throw INT for TD in his only play as sub for dinged starter Lewis (IU led at time, 14-3), and Hoosiers wound up losing game by a FG that they should have won.

    Vanderbilt is 5-5, needs win here or vs Wake next week to be eligible for first bowl in 25 years. Tennessee beat Commodores 24 of last 25 years, but Vandy won their last visit here; ‘dores covered 12 of last 16 as road dog, have already won at South Carolina in ’07, but Vols are 6-0 at home (5-0-1 vs spread) with wins by 20-21-21-3-51-21 points. Vols are +8 in turnovers in last three games, with seven INTs- they held Arkansas to 127 yards rushing last week. Three of five Vandy losses are by 14+ points.

    Emergence of freshman RB Moreno has sparked Georgia run game (195.8 ypg in last four). Kentucky beat Georgia 24-20 LY (+7), for first series win in last 10 tries; UK allowed 31+ points in four of last five games. Wildcats are 2-1 SU on road, 3-2 vs the spread as dog, but -9 in turnovers last five games, with only four takeaways. Dawgs won four in row, seven of their last eight games, scoring 42-44-45 in last three, all vs foes who will be in bowls- they’re 4-1 at home, winning last three by 45-17/44-34/

    45-20 scores.

    Missouri beat Kansas State LY for first time in last 14 meetings; they lost last eight visits to Little Apple, (24-14/36-28 in last two), but are on roll this year, winning last four games, scoring 44.5 pg. Mizzou is 2-1 on road, winning 38-25 at Ole Miss, 55-10 at Colorado, losing 41-31 at Oklahoma. K-State gave up to 73 to dead Nebraska squad last week, their third loss in last four games. Tigers have biggest game in their recent history next week (vs rival Kansas in Arrowhead); they can’t look past this.

    Health of Henne, Hart kept this game off board most of week. Michigan lost five of last six games vs Ohio State, losing last three years by 37-21/25-21/42-39 scores; this is first time since ’59 both teams come into this game off a loss. Buckeyes had national title hopes dashed last week; they’re 4-0 on road, winning by 19-23-16-20 points. Wolverines won last five home games, scoring 33.4 pg- they covered six of last seven as a dog. Four of last five OSU games went over total.

    Boston College beat Clemson in OT in each of last two years, 16-13/34-33; Tigers outgained BC 479-322 LY, still lost. Clemson won, covered last four games overall (+7 in TO’s), winning by 56-13-37-34 points; they’re 2-2 as home favorite in ’07. Boston College covered last four tries as underdog, but lost last two weeks, 27-17/42-35 (-6 in TO’s)- they haven’t picked off pass in last three games. Four of last five Clemson games went over total, but three of BC’s last four stayed under.

    Underdog covered last four NC State-Wake Forest games, with Wake winning last two, 27-19/25-23; home side covered eight of last 11 series games. Wolfpack won last four games to even record (5-5), with seven INTs in last three; their last three games were all decided by five or less points. Wake lost their last two games, scoring 16-10 points, but they won last four at home, by 11-7-3-20 points. State covered last four tries as underdog. State needs one more win to become bowl eligible.

    Home side covered last four South Florida-Louisville games, with Cardinals losing last two visits here, 31-28OT/45-14 (as 20-point favorite). South Florida snapped 3-game skid last week, routing Syracuse; they scored 33-41 in last two games, and outscored last three opponents 49-13 in second half. Bulls covered 13 of last 20 as home favorite. Louisville is 2-0 as dog this season, disappointing 5-5 SU, 2-3 on road, losing at Kentucky (40-34), UConn (21-17), West Virginia (38-31).

    Rest of the Card

    -- Iowa needs win here to guarantee bowl bid; they’ve won last three games, by 7-11-5 points, but failed to cover last three tries as favorite. Western Michigan lost last three games; four of their last five were decided by four or less points.

    -- Temple scored seven points in losing its last two games (23-7/

    31-0) with QB Charlton replacing the injured starter DiMichele; they’re 6-3 vs spread as dog in ’07. Kent lost last five games, but is favored for third time in last four weeks, second straight time on road!!!!

    -- Underdog covered nine of last 13 Ga Tech-North Carolina games, with Tech winning eight of last nine, but Heels covered last three. Dog is 8-1 vs spread in last eight Tech games, with GT 2-4 as favorite. UNC had ball on 12-yard line to win at NC State last week, but fell just short; they’re 2-7 vs D-I teams.

    -- Syracuse is 2-6 vs spread as dog this season, 1-3 on road, with 35-0 loss at Iowa and pair of 3-point defeats; last four SU games stayed under total, as have four of last five Husky games. UConn is 3-1 as favorite, 5-0 SU at home, with wins by 5-34-4-7-19 points.

    -- Bowling Green is 6-0 when it scores 31+ points, 0-4 when it doesn’t; they’re 3-3 on road, and scored 82 points in winning last two games. Six of their last seven games went over total. Buffalo covered four of last five games; they’re 3-0 at home in MAC, winning by 21-10-16 points.

    -- Army lost last four games, by 24-24-20-35 points, allowing 38 pg (-9 TO ratio); they’re 3-4 vs spread as underdog in ’07. Tulsa crushed Houston 56-7 last week; they’re 2-2 on road, beating UL-Monroe 35-17, Tulane 49-25. Hurricane covered just two of last six as a favorite.

    -- Wyoming trailed 40-0 at half last week in Utah, as they go thru another late season slide, losing four of last five games (0-5 vs spread), but they’re 4-1 at home, losing 20-3 to New Mexico. BYU won six in row after 1-2 start; they’re 2-2 on road, winning at New Mexico (31-24), UNLV (24-14).

    -- Air Force just beat Army, Notre Dame last two weeks, could let down vs San Diego State squad that scored 65 points in winning last two games, after 2-5 start, but Falcons covered last six games, are 4-0 as favorite in ‘07. Aztecs covered four of last five tries as dog.

    -- Underdog covered 12 of last 15 Arkansas-Miss State games, with home side covering last five. Bulldogs are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine tries as road dog; they beat Alabama last week to become bowl eligible, but since 11 of 12 SEC teams might be eligible, a seventh win wouldn’t hurt.

    -- Underdog is 6-2 vs spread in last eight New Mexico State-Utah State games; USU covered four of last six, even though they’ve lost 16 in row SU. NMex State lost last three games, giving up 50-40-51 points, so hard to endorse them, especially giving 9.5 points- they’re 1-1 as favorite this season.

    -- Baylor’s coach isn’t coming back in ’08; they’re 2-11 vs the spread in last 13 Big 12 games. Oklahoma State needs win to become bowl eligible, or Gundy won’t be back either. Cowboys allowed 81 points in losing last two games- they’re 1-2 vs spread as favorite, 1-3 SU on road, winning only at Nebraska.

    -- Oklahoma won last five games, last four by 10+ points; they’re just 1-3 as road favorite in ’07, but covered 10 of last 14 vs Texas Tech, which lost three of last four games and is 0-2 as underdog this year. Faves covered five of Tech’s last six games.

    -- 3-8 Iowa State won last two weeks, is only thing between Kansas and showdown with Missouri for Big 12 North title last week; home side is 12-3-1 vs. spread in Jayhawk-Cyclone series. Kansas covered 13 of last 14 games overall, but they did allow 39-28 points in last two games.

    -- Boise won last eight games, covered last three, outscoring last two foes 92-7, but Broncos play Hawai’i next week, so they could look past in-state rival that is 0-9 vs D-I teams (1-6 vs spread in last seven). None of their last five losses are by more than 16 points, however.

    -- Duke’s offensive coordinator was OC at Notre Dame LY, but Weis fired him; the guy’s kids still go to school in South Bend. Both teams 1-9, they both lost close games to Navy, Duke lost last seven games, failed to cover last four. Is this is the worst nationally televised game in history of college football?

    -- Not only has SMU’s coach already been fired, they blew 15-point lead in 4th quarter last week, their 8th loss in row (four of last six by six or less pts, or in OT). Central Florida failed to cover last eight tries as road favorite, but they’ve won four in row overall, with all four wins by 14+ points.

    -- Rice won last two games, allowing 90 points; they’ve allowed 45.1 pg vs D-I foes this year, and is 1-3 at home, even losing to I-AA Nicholls State. Tulane is 0-7 scoring less than 34 points; they split last four games after 1-5 start. Wave has 200+ rushing yards in five of last six games.

    -- Marshall covered just three of last 15 as road dog; they did upset East Carolina at home last week, holding hit Pirates to 7 points. Houston got crushed at Tulsa last week, ending 4-game win streak; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five tries when favored.

    -- Navy scored 74 points last week and didn’t cover, week after giving up 44 points and winning at Notre Dame- they trailed 49-45 at North Texas at the half last week. Northern Illinois ended five-game skid last week. Navy covered three of last 10 as home favorite- they have bowl bid locked up.

    -- Underdog covered seven of last eight Memphis-UAB games, with Blazers winning last seven SU; UAB has given up 240-335-216-338-402 rushing yards in last five games. Tigers upset Southern Miss last week; they need win to get to six, but their last four wins are all by three or less points.

    -- Cal lost four of last five games (0-5 vs spread), losing last two on road; they’re 1-5 vs spread in their last six tries as favorite. Washington QB Locker left with sprained neck last week; doubt he goes here, and there is dropoff to backup Bonnell. Huskies lost seven of their last eight games.

    -- Underdog covered eight of last 10 LSU-Ole Miss games, with four of last five decided by three or less pts; teams compete on recruiting trail (Orgeron is from Cajun country, grew up an LSU fan). Rebels are 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven SEC home games. Does LSU need style points?

    -- Miami tanked in Orange Bowl finale last week, losing 48-0 to Virginia, now go to Blacksburg after Tech beat Florida State last week. In its last two games, Miami is 10-35/178 passing, dismal numbers. Hokies won seven of last eight games, with last four wins all by 18+ points.

    -- Florida State covered four of last 15 as home favorite; they’re 3-1 at home, losing to Miami, winning by 10-17-19 points.- they’re 1-4 if they allow more than 17 points. Maryland ended 3-game skip beating BC last week; three of their last four losses were by seven or less points (30-17 vs Clemson).

    -- Utah is hot, winning last six games, covering last five; they won last four home games by combined score of 151-31- they allowed three points in last two games, opponents are 7 for last 41 on third down against Utes. New Mexico won four of last five games, but the loss was 37-0 at TCU.

    -- Favorite covered 12 of last 15 Oregon State-Wazzu games, with OSU covering six of last seven in series; their QB Canfield missed last week’s game, but Beavers won four of last five games, losing only at USC. Coogs won last two home games, beating UCLA 27-7, Stanford 33-17.

    -- San Jose State is 1-5 on road, beating winless Utah State, losing other five games by combined score of 188-27; they’re 2-5 vs spread as dog this season- they had 476 rushing yards vs Louisiana Tech LY in 44-10 win. Tech got waxed at LSU last week, after winning previous two games.

    -- Wisconsin is 3-3 in last six visits to Metrodome, with three wins by combined total of eight points. Minnesota lost last nine games (1-3 vs spread in last four), with three of their last four home losses by 14+ points. Badgers won three of last four games, winning by 41,30,16 points.

    -- TCU covered five of last seven as double digit favorite, but are 2-4 vs spread in last six tries overall as a favorite; they’re 4-1 at home this year, winning by 27-14-12-37 points. UNLV lost last six games, with four of six by 10 or less points- they’re 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this season.

    -- UTEP lost last four games, allowing 42.3 pg; they gave up 45-47 in two games they won before that, so they’re an awful team. on defense. Southern Miss got upset at home by Memphis last week; they’re 3-2 on road, losing at Tennessee, Boise State. Favorite covered their last ten road games.

    -- Rutgers lost three of last four home games; favorite covered four of their last five games. Pitt is 0-3 on road this year, losing at Michigan State (17-13), Virginia (44-14), Louisville (24-17)- their last three games stayed under total. Pitt is 3-2 as an underdog this season.

    -- Illinois had highly emotional win at Ohio State last week; their third win in row; they’re 4-2 vs spread as favorite this seasons. Northwestern covered three of last four tries as underdog, but Bacher threw nine INTs in last three games (-8 TO ratio in last four games).

    -- Alabama is 0-3 as home favorite this season, covered three of last 15 as double digit favorite; they beat UL-Monroe 41-7 LY (+24), but have huge Auburn game up next, coming off physical Miss State contest. UL-Monroe covered last three tries as an underdog, but this is deeper water for them- they lost 49-26 at Clemson in September (+26).

    -- UL-Lafayette ran ball for 376 yards in upset win at Middle Tennessee last week, week after running for 234 in loss at Tennessee; Cajuns are 1-0 as favorite this year, 1-4 on road, with only win last week. FIU is 0-9, but came close last week, losing 27-24 after leading 9-3 at the half.

    -- Florida scored 100 points in winning last two games; they have Seminoles on deck, after hammering South Carolina last week. FAU lost 41-6 at Oklahoma State, 45-17 at Kentucky, so they’re out of their league here, but as long the Gators’ check clears at the bank, it’s a productive night for Owls.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:54pm
23. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    Tips and Trends

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    Tips and Trends

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    Friday, November 16

    Hawaii Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack (11 PM ET | ESPN2)

    Friday night’s WAC meeting has the No. 12 Hawaii Warriors taking on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Hawaii is in the middle of a dream season, going 9-0 on the year and being led by Heisman candidate QB Colt Brennan. Brennan has thrown for 3,216 yards and 28 touchdowns on year, and needs just one more TD through the air to tie another NCAA record by throwing a TD in 35 straight games. He suffered a concussion last week, but has declared he’d be ready to face Nevada. The Wolf Pack defense are fresh off a horrible performance, allowing 407 passing yards to New Mexico State’s QB Chase Holbrook, which translates to a very long night for them against this Warriors passing offense. EDGE: HAWAII

    Hawaii QB Colt Brennan has put up outstanding numbers in two career games versus the Wolf Pack, completing 65-of-90 passes for 828 yards, seven TDs and one interception. In last year's meeting, a 41-34 Warriors win at Hawaii, Brennan went 36-for-47 with four TDs and no picks. EDGE: HAWAII

    Nevada’s redshirt freshman QB Colin Kaepernick has stepped in for the injured Nick Graziano and completed 81-of-145 passes for 1,248 yards, 13 TDs and only two interceptions, giving him a 155.0 passer rating that ranks 10th in the nation. His excellent play has Nevada in contention for a third consecutive bowl bid, but Wolf Pack coach Chris Ault said "We have Hawaii first." Kaepernick should be in line for another nice game, as the Hawaii passing defense has been shredded to the tone of 296 passing yards over their last three games. EDGE: NEVADA

    The Wolf Pack has won all three meetings between these schools in Reno, and holds a 6-5 edge in the series. Since Nevada joined the WAC in 2000, it has alternated wins and losses in its annual match-up with Hawaii as the home team has won every year. EDGE: NEVADA

    Nevada boasts one of the few offenses that may be able to keep up with Hawaii's. The Warriors lead the nation with 50.2 points per game, but the Wolf Pack rank 15th with 37.3. In four full games quarterback Colin Kaepernick has started, Nevada has averaged 43.8 points. BIG EDGE: OVER

    Hawaii is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS loss.

    Hawaii is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 road games.

    Hawaii is 1-5 in its last 6 Friday games.

    Nevada is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against a winning team.

    Nevada is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games following a bye week.

    Nevada is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 conference games.

    Saturday, November 17

    #7 Ohio State at #21 Michigan (ABC | 12 PM ET)

    Michigan and Ohio Sate have met on the final Saturday of the Big Ten season every year since 1935, and this is the first time since 1959 both programs meet coming off of losses. Before Ohio State’s shocking loss to Illinois they had hopes of playing for the BCS title, now a trip to the Rose Bowl is on the table with a Big 10 Championship. “You come to Ohio State to play against Michigan" says OS WR Brian Hartline. Ohio State Coach Jim Tressel is 5-1 versus Michigan since taking over in 2001, and look to continue his team’s dominance on the road this season. State is 4-0 on the road and has won those games by an average of 22 points. EDGE: OHIO STATE

    Michigan simply didn’t look like they brought it’s A-game to Wisconsin last week, suffering a 37-21 loss. Players said they weren’t looking past that game, but it truly didn’t mean much in the run for the Big 10 Championship thanks to an eight-game winning streak in the middle of the season. Michigan scored an average of 31 points per game during that streak, and the players have stepped-up for their coach Lloyd Carr. “I am very proud of the way this team has fought this year, and we will fight again for a trip to the Rose Bowl” Michigan coach Lloyd Carr. EDGE: MICHIGAN

    Ohio State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following an ATS loss.

    Ohio State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.

    Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog.

    Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 conference games.

    The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

    Northwestern at #19 Illinois (ESPN | 12 PM ET)

    After beating the top-ranked team in the country for the first time since 1956, the No. 21 Illinois look to close their first winning regular season in six years on a high note. Illinois has won three in-a-row and are averaging 33 points per game during the streak. QB Juice Williams has seen more action through the air during this streak, averaging 164 passing yards with 6 touchdowns. This red-hot Illinois offense should be able to make some nosie against a Northwestern team which is allowing 415 total yards per game on the road this season. EDGE: ILLINOIS

    Northwestern has played very good against their in-state rivals, “We're playing very good football” said Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald. Northwestern has won four in a row against Illinois and only one of those games was decided by fewer than 11 points. Northwestern hasn’t lost to Illinois since 2002. EDGE: NORTHWESTERN

    Northwestern is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.

    Northwestern is 4-11 ATS in its 15 road games against a winning home team.

    Illinois is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU win.

    Illinois is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite.

    #1 LSU at Mississippi (CBS | 3:30 PM ET)

    Top-ranked LSU travels to Mississippi looking to stay in the ***** of the national title race. The Tigers finally climbed back atop the AP poll winning three straight and jumping back into the top spot when Ohio State lost to Illinois on Saturday. During this three game streak LSU has averaged 43 points per game while racking up an average of 500+ yards. Not only has the Tigers offense been ticking, but their defense is allowing just 66 rushing yards per game and 237 yards overall – led by Glenn Dorsey. EDGE: LSU

    Since Eli Manning's graduation, Mississippi is 6-24 in SEC play, and has a 10-game losing streak against ranked teams, but the Rebels played Florida and Alabama close, and are coming off a bye week. “They are coming to our house, and I know we will be ready for the challenge." Mississippi coach Ed Orgeron said. SLIGHT EDGE: MISSISSIPPI

    LSU is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as a road favorite of 10.5+ points.

    LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 conference games.

    Mississippi is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 home games.

    Mississippi is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games as a home underdog.

    Road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

    Iowa State at #3 Kansas (ABC | 3:30 PM ET)

    Kansas is in the midst of a remarkable run from nowhere to legitimate national title contender. The Jayhawks are 10-0 on the season and have showed they can win high scoring and low scoring affairs. They are one of the rare teams in the league to not have any players listed on the injury report, and have been hard to stop, averaging 46 points per game overall. Kansas is putting up over 500 yards a game, and this is not good news for the Iowa State defense which is already allowing close to 400 yards a game. BIG EDGE: KANSAS

    The Iowa State Cyclones have been outscored by an average of 14.5 points in dropping all four of their road games this season. However, Iowa State is coming off one of its most impressive victories of the season, rallying from a 21-point halftime deficit to beat Colorado 31-28 last Saturday. This is following their 31-20 victory over Kansas State on Nov. 3, and the Cyclones have won back-to-back conference games for the first time since winning four in a row in 2005. "The two-game winning streak lets our team know we can play against the best teams in the country" State coach Gene Chizik said. EDGE: IOWA STATE

    Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 conference games.

    Iowa State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games against a winning team.

    Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 conference games.

    Kansas is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games as a home favorite.

    Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

    Penn State at Michigan State (ABC | 3:30 PM ET)

    The Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan State Spartans wrap up their respective schedules, as the two are set for a Big Ten Conference clash. Penn State is coming off its second shutout of the season, a 31-0 triumph at Temple last weekend. The Nittany Lions have gotten hot down the stretch, winning five of their last six games. State is averaging 31 points per game over that winning stretch and Michigan State’s defense is giving up that exact number over their last three games. EDGE: PENN STATE

    Against Purdue, Michigan State QB Brian Hoyer completed 22-of-31 passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns. He looked often to Devin Thomas, who finished with 10 catches for 116 yards. The Spartans rank second in the conference with 205 rushing yards per game, and coach Mark Dantonio will stick with the run in this game. Michigan State know they need this game in order to officially lock up a bowl game, so expect a hard-fought game from start to finish. EDGE: MICHIGAN STATE

    Penn State is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games following an ATS win.

    Penn State is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 conference games.

    Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against a winning team.

    Michigan State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games.

    Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

    #6 West Virginia at #22 Cinncinnati (ESPN | 7:45 PM ET)

    West Virginia is coming off one of its worst performances of the season, but still managed to come away with a victory. The fifth-ranked Mountaineers continue their push for the Big East crown on Saturday when they visit the 25th-ranked Bearcats, who are back in the ***** of the conference chase. West Virginia beat Louisville 38-31 last Thursday to move up one place in the AP poll and one place in the BCS standings to sixth. West Virginia QB Pat White has rushed for 204 yards, two touchdowns, thrown for 198 yards, and two scores in two career games against Cincinnati.The Mountaineers are 13-1-1 against the Bearcats, and have won all five meetings in Cincinnati. EDGE: WEST VIRGINIA

    Cincinnati has eight regular-season wins for the first time since 1993, and is looking to notch nine victories for the first time since 1976. The Bearcats offense has been rolling along at home going 4-1 while averaging 37 points per game. While their offense has been clicking, the defense has been great at getting the ball back to them. The Bearcats lead the nation in both takeaways and interceptions, and this is great news for them considering the Mountaineers had a total of five fumbles alone in their last game. EGDE: CINNCINNATI

    West Virginia is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games as a road favorite.

    West Virginia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games against a winning team.

    Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU win.

    Cincinnati is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games.

    Under is 5-1 in West Virginia’s last 6 games following a SU win.

    #4 Oklahoma at Texas Tech (ABC | 8 PM ET)

    Oklahoma, which has won a record four Big 12 titles in its five championship game appearances, extended its conference win streak to five games with a 52-21 win over Baylor last Saturday. The Sooners moved up one spot in the AP poll, matching their highest ranking of the season. Oklahoma has won six-in-row and has been a powerhouse on offense, scoring an average of 30 points per game. This is good news for the Sooners, as now they face a Texas Tech defense which was just lit up for 59 points last week against Texas. EDGE: OKLAHOMA

    The Red Raiders have fallen on hard times, losing three out of their last four games. The good news has been their offense, compiling 542 yards per game on the season, while averaging 467 passing yards at home. The Red Raider passing attack is led by QB Graham Harell, who leads the Football Bowl Subdivision with 421 completions, 4,878 yards and 43 TDs, who will face an Sooner defense which is allowing 8 yards per pass completion. EDGE: TEXAS TECH

    Oklahoma is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games against a winning home record.

    Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall.

    Texas Tech is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games as a home underdog.

    Texas Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against a winning team.

    Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:54pm
24. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    Preview

    Friday, November 16

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    What bettors need to know: Hawaii at Nevada

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    Brennan’s back

    Hawaii star quarterback Colt Brennan returned to practice on Wednesday.

    Brennan suffered a concussion in last Saturday’s 37-30 victory over Fresno State. The concussion caused Brennan to miss two practices this week and raised speculation he could miss Saturday’s tilt versus the Wolf Pack.

    “If the game was today, I would say he would play,” Hawaii coach June Jones told reporters.

    Brennan is 65-for-90 for more than 800 yards with seven touchdowns in two career meetings with the Wolf Pack. The senior also has more than 3,200 passing yards and 28 touchdowns against 12 interceptions this campaign overall.

    “I’ve just got to hope that I continue to get better and feel good,” Brennan told reporters. “Hopefully Friday, I can get cleared. That's all I'm waiting for.”

    Warriors shorthanded

    Hawaii running back Kealoha Pilares is doubtful for Saturday.

    Hawaii is averaging 73.2 rushing yards per game, with Pilares averaging less than 40 yards. Pilares has three rushing touchdowns this season, while quarterback Brennan leads the Warriors with six.

    “You know they're going to pass the ball,” Wolf Pack senior defensive back Damon Jenkins told the Sacramento Bee. “That's what makes this year a little like 2005. They're a little more predictable. Still tough to stop, but a little more one-dimensional.”

    The Warriors have the second-ranked passing attack in the country, tallying more than 450 yards per contest. They have also scored 28 passing touchdowns this season and are averaging more than 50 points per contest.

    “If we stick to our game plan and execute it like we did two years ago we can beat them,” Jenkins told reporters.

    Wolf Pack on the attack

    Everyone in the country is familiar with Hawaii’s potent aerial attack. Not many people, though, are aware of Nevada’s bruising ground assault.

    “In any situation, any team you’re playing, they say the best defense is a good offense,” Wolf Pack center Dominic Green told the Reno Gazette-Journal. “That's where we try to pride ourselves on. Our main goal is time of possession the last four years, ever since Coach Ault and Coach K (offensive coordinator Chris Klenakis) came back. That's what any offense should try to do – keep the ball, keep your defense off the field and good things will happen.”

    Wolf Pack running back Luke Lippincott leads the team with more than 1,200 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Lippincott is also averaging more than 115 rushing yards per contest. He has also surpassed the 100-yard plateau six times this season and eight times in his collegiate career.

    “We've got to try to run the clock and keep the ball as long as we can and score once we get into the red zone,” Lippincott told reporters.

    Nevada is averaging an impressive 230 rushing yards per contest. It is also the only school in the conference averaging more than five yards per carry.

    Hawaii, though, can be stifling on defense as well. The Warriors have allowed a meager 110 rushing yards per showing.

    Crunching the numbers

    Nevada holds a narrow 6-5 lead in the all-time series against Hawaii after losing 41-34 last season.

    The Warriors have never beaten Nevada in Reno. Nevada is also a stunning 5-1 against the spread (ATS) at Mackay Stadium against teams with winning records.

    Since the Wolf Pack joined the Western Athletic Conference in 2001 they have rotated wins and losses with the Warriors.

    The home team has won every contest. It is also 5-1 ATS in the last six contests between Hawaii and Nevada.

    Nevada is in contention for a third straight bowl bid, though head coach Chris Ault isn’t thinking past Friday’s matchup with the conference-leading Warriors.

    “We'd better not be thinking about a bowl, we have Hawaii first,” Ault told reporters.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:55pm
25. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    Gameday

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    NCAAF Gameday

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    College Football Gameday

    Friday – Hawaii (13) at Nevada

    The Warriors defeated Fresno State 37-30 as a 19-point favorite last week, but may have suffered a huge injury setback in the victory. Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan was knocked out cold and suffered a concussion in the win, which leaves his status for Friday up in the air. Hawaii head coach June Jones said Brennan will be a game-time decision on Friday night.

    Before getting knocked out Brennan completed 28-of-39 passes for 396 yards with two touchdown passes, an interception and a rushing TD against Fresno State. Running back Leon Wright-Jackson provided the rest of the Warriors’ offense with 65 yards and a touchdown on six carries. If Brennan can’t play on Friday, backup QB Tyler Graunke would get the call. Graunke has seen some action this season and has completed 44-of-72 passes for 734 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions.

    The Wolf Pack were off last week and played their last game on Nov. 2 when they edged New Mexico State 40-38 as a 6.5-point underdog. Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick had a monster game while completing 15-of-28 passes for 237 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, while also rushing for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries. Luke Lippincott was also strong on the ground with 143 rushing yards on 30 carries, and Marko Mitchell led all receivers with six receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown.

    When Hawaii faced Nevada last season the Warriors defeated the Wolf Pack 41-34 as a 13.5-point favorite. Brennan threw four touchdowns passes and also ran in for a score in the won.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:56pm
26. 0 likes

    NCAAF

    Matchup notes

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    College football key matchup notes - Week 12

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Friday, November 16

    No. 12 Hawaii at Nevada (+7, 79)

    The Hawaii quarterback is expected to be a game-time decision Friday night when the No. 12 Warriors seek to remain unbeaten as they visit the Wolf Pack.

    Saturday, November 17

    No. 7 Ohio State at No. 23 Michigan (N/A)

    Michigan leads the series with Ohio State 57-40-6 and 30-18-4 in Ann Arbor. Carr is 6-6 against the Buckeyes.

    Northwestern at No. 21 Illinois (-13 1/2, 56 1/2)

    Northwestern is 44-51-5 all-time against Illinois, but has won four in a row in the series and only one of those games was decided by fewer than 11 points.

    Florida Atlantic at No. 14 Florida (-34, 67 1/2)

    Tim Tebow looks to continue making his case for becoming the first sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy when he leads 14th-ranked Florida into its first meeting with Florida Atlantic on Saturday.

    No. 6 Missouri at Kansas State (+7, 68 1/2)

    The Wildcats look to bounce back at home, where they're 4-1. Their only defeat in Manhattan came Oct. 6 against Kansas, the only team from a BCS conference without a loss.

    No. 20 Kentucky at No. 9 Georgia (-8, 61)

    The Wildcats have never beaten three top 10 teams in one season, but that could change on Saturday.

    Idaho at No. 15 Boise State (-33 1/2, 65)

    Boise State is looking for its 45th straight regular-season home win.

    Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee (-11 1/2, 52)

    Vanderbilt ranks second-to-last in the SEC in offense (330 ypg) and scoring (21.9 ppg), but had one of it's best games against the Wildcats, gaining 432 yards.

    No. 24 Wisconsin at Minnesota (+13 1/2, 57)

    Minnesota has lost both of it's games against ranked opponents this season, and nine straight games to Top 25 teams since a 42-35 double-overtime victory over Purdue on Sept. 24, 2005.

    No. 1 Louisiana State at Mississippi (+19 1/2, 54)

    LSU had to wait 48 years to make it to No. 1 in the Top 25. The Tigers hope to make the most of a second stint that came about much more quickly.

    Iowa State at No. 4 Kansas (-26, 58)

    Kansas is in the midst of a remarkable run from nowhere to legitimate national title contender, but coach Mark Mangino doesn't want his team looking ahead.

    Miami at No. 10 Virginia Tech (-17, 42)

    Miami (5-5, 2-4) has lost four of five, including three to unranked teams. In order to qualify for a bowl game for the 10th straight year, they'll have to win either at Virginia Tech (8-2, 5-1) or at 18th-ranked Boston College next week.

    No. 5 West Virginia at No. 25 Cincinnati (+6 1/2, 55 1/2)

    Cincinnati has eight regular-season wins for the first time since 1993, and is looking to notch nine victories for the first time since 1976.

    No. 18 Boston College at No. 16 Clemson (-7 1/2, 52 1/2)

    Boston College has lost it's national championship hopes, and now Clemson would relish spoiling its new rival's shot at the ACC title.

    No. 3 Oklahoma at Texas Tech (+8 1/2, 66)

    Texas Tech has lost six of its last seven meetings with Oklahoma to fall to 3-11 all-time against the Sooners. The Red Raiders, though, won the teams' last matchup in Lubbock 23-21 on Nov. 19, 2005.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:56pm
27. 0 likes

    NFL

    Dunkel Index

    Week 11

    Chicago at Seattle

    The on-again, off-again saga of Rex Grossman appears to be on again as the much-criticized QB came off the bench last week and led the Bears to a win over the Raiders. It likely saved the Bears season -- at least for the moment -- and set up a showdown for this weekend in Seattle. These two team met twice last year with the Bears winning both times, the first during the regular season at home (37-6) and the second in the divisional playoff (27-24). But it is Seattle that comes in with the better record at this point and in first place in the division, while the Bears are likely scratching for a wild card bid. The difference between the two teams doesn't look to be that great, though. Four of Seattle's five wins have come against losing teams (Cincinnati, St. Louis and San Francisco twice), while the Bears have actually played better ball on the road (3-2 record) than at Soldier Field (1-3) with notable victories at Philadelphia and Green Bay. Lovie Smith is sticking with Grossman this week looking for a little of last season's magic. The should make for a good underdog pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has Chicago favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+ Here are all of this week's picks.

    SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18

    Game 403-404: San Diego at Jacksonville

    Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 136.733; Jacksonville 132.944

    Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4; 47

    Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; 40 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Over

    Game 405-406: Kansas City at Indianapolis

    Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.159; Indianapolis 150.679

    Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 25 1/2; 41

    Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 14 1/2; 44 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-14 1/2); Under

    Game 407-408: Oakland at Minnesota

    Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.759; Minnesota 133.595

    Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11; 32

    Vegas Line: Minnesota by 5; 35 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5); Under

    Game 409-410: Cleveland at Baltimore

    Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.240; Baltimore 130.107

    Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 47

    Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 43 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

    Game 411-412: Pittsburgh at NY Jets

    Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.003; NY Jets 125.759

    Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12 1/2; 44

    Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 40 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-9 1/2); Over

    Game 413-414: Tampa Bay at Atlanta

    Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.556; Atlanta 125.997

    Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 5 1/2; 37

    Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 35 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

    Game 415-416: Arizona at Cincinnati

    Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 128.651; Cincinnati 128.841

    Dunkel Line: Even; 44

    Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 48

    Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3 1/2); Under

    Game 417-418: Miami at Philadelphia

    Dunkel Ratings: Miami 120.412; Philadelphia 132.231

    Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 12; 46

    Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 10; 40 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-10); Over

    Game 419-420: New England at Buffalo

    Dunkel Ratings: New England 151.973; Buffalo 131.347

    Dunkel Line: New England by 20 1/2; 48

    Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 46 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: New England (-14 1/2); Over

    Game 421-422: Washington at Dallas

    Dunkel Ratings: Washington 124.164; Dallas 142.188

    Dunkel Line: Dallas by 18; 51

    Vegas Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 47 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10 1/2); Over

    Game 423-424: New Orleans at Houston

    Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 130.026; Houston 127.300

    Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 3; 53

    Vegas Line: Houston by 1; 48

    Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+1); Over

    Game 425-426: Carolina at Green Bay

    Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.292; Green Bay 139.830

    Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14 1/2; 32

    Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 37 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9 1/2); Under

    Game 427-428: NY Giants at Detroit

    Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.018; Detroit 135.970

    Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 47

    Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 49

    Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3); Under

    Game 429-430: St. Louis at San Francisco

    Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 117.074; San Francisco 121.724

    Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 44

    Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 40

    Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3); Over

    Game 431-432: Chicago at Seattle

    Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.276; Seattle 128.293

    Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 40

    Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 37 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6); Over

    MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19

    Game 433-434: Tennessee at Denver

    Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 133.358; Denver 129.003

    Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 41

    Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 38 1/2

    Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3); Over

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:56pm
28. 0 likes

    NFL

    Long Sheet

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sunday, November 18

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN DIEGO (5 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (6 - 3) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    JACKSONVILLE is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.

    SAN DIEGO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KANSAS CITY (4 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 2) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

    INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.

    INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

    INDIANAPOLIS is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons

    INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OAKLAND (2 - 7) at MINNESOTA (3 - 6) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    OAKLAND is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

    OAKLAND is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

    OAKLAND is 21-46 ATS (-29.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

    OAKLAND is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

    MINNESOTA is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CLEVELAND (5 - 4) at BALTIMORE (4 - 5) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games this season.

    BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

    BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    CLEVELAND is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons

    BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PITTSBURGH (7 - 2) at NY JETS (1 - - 11/18/2007, 4:05 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    PITTSBURGH is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

    PITTSBURGH is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TAMPA BAY (5 - 4) at ATLANTA (3 - 6) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

    ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ARIZONA (4 - 5) at CINCINNATI (3 - 6) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM

    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIAMI (0 - 9) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 5) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

    PHILADELPHIA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ENGLAND (9 - 0) at BUFFALO (5 - 4) - 11/18/2007, 8:15 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    BUFFALO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    BUFFALO is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    BUFFALO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    BUFFALO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

    BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.

    NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

    NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.

    NEW ENGLAND is 114-83 ATS (+22.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    NEW ENGLAND is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

    NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

    NEW ENGLAND is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

    NEW ENGLAND is 73-50 ATS (+18.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

    NEW ENGLAND is 50-27 ATS (+20.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.

    NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.

    NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

    NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

    NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WASHINGTON (5 - 4) at DALLAS (8 - 1) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    WASHINGTON is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

    WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    WASHINGTON is 43-67 ATS (-30.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

    DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons

    WASHINGTON is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ORLEANS (4 - 5) at HOUSTON (4 - 5) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CAROLINA (4 - 5) at GREEN BAY (8 - 1) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    CAROLINA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.

    GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.

    CAROLINA is 70-42 ATS (+23.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

    CAROLINA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

    GREEN BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons

    CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons

    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY GIANTS (6 - 3) at DETROIT (6 - 3) - 11/18/2007, 4:15 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    NY GIANTS are 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    NY GIANTS are 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in November games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ST LOUIS (1 - at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 7) - 11/18/2007, 4:15 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    ST LOUIS is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    ST LOUIS is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    ST LOUIS is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in November games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

    SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CHICAGO (4 - 5) at SEATTLE (5 - 4) - 11/18/2007, 4:15 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    CHICAGO is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.

    CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

    SEATTLE is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

    SEATTLE is 43-69 ATS (-32.9 Units) off a division game since 1992.

    SEATTLE is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

    SEATTLE is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    SEATTLE is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons

    CHICAGO is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons

    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Monday, November 19

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TENNESSEE (6 - 3) at DENVER (4 - 5) - 11/19/2007, 8:30 PM

    Top Trends for this game.

    TENNESSEE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

    DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

    DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    DENVER is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

    DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

    DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

    DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

    DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History

    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:57pm
29. 0 likes

    NFL

    Short Sheet

    Sunday, November 18th

    San Diego at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST

    San Diego: 9-1 ATS vs. AFC South opponents

    Jacksonville: 1-7 ATS off BB Overs

    Kansas City at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST

    Kansas City: 5-1 ATS off BB ATS losses

    Indianapolis: 28-14 Over off a loss as a favorite

    Oakland at Minnesota, 1:00 EST

    Oakland: 2-9 ATS off 4+ losses

    Minnesota: 17-7 Over after allowing 450+ total yards

    Cleveland at Baltimore, 1:00 EST

    Cleveland: 10-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points

    Baltimore: 0-6 ATS vs. conference opponents

    Pittsburgh at NY Jets, 1:00 EST

    Pittsburgh: 13-4 ATS off BB home wins

    NY Jets: 0-7 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

    Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00 EST

    Tampa Bay: 15-5 Under in road games

    Atlanta: 5-15 ATS off 3+ ATS wins

    Arizona at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST

    Arizona: 19-8 Over as an underdog

    Cincinnati: 0-7 ATS at home after losing 2 of their last 3 games

    Miami at Philadelphia, 1:00 EST

    Miami: 6-15 ATS off an Under

    Philadelphia: 9-2 ATS off a division game

    New England at Buffalo, 1:00 EST

    New England: 8-1 ATS as a favorite

    Buffalo: 6-1 Over off a division win

    Washington at Dallas, 1:00 EST

    Washington: 15-30 ATS after allowing 30+ points

    Dallas: 6-0 ATS vs. conference opponents

    New Orleans at Houston, 1:00 EST

    New Orleans: 1-6 ATS off BB Overs

    Houston: 10-2 Over with a line of +3 to -3

    Carolina at Green Bay, 1:00 EST

    Carolina: 30-16 ATS away off an ATS loss

    Green Bay: 0-8 ATS at home off an Under

    NY Giants at Detroit, 4:15 EST

    NY Giants: 23-10 Under away in November

    Detroit: 3-7 ATS in November

    St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:15 EST

    St. Louis: 5-17 ATS playing with same-season revenge

    San Francisco: 21-8 ATS vs. St. Louis

    Chicago at Seattle, 8:15 EST NBC

    Chicago: 8-2 ATS off BB Unders

    Seattle: 1-4 ATS vs. NFC North opponents

    Monday, November 19th

    Tennessee at Denver, 8:30 EST ESPN

    Tennessee: 14-4 ATS as an underdog

    Denver: 1-10 ATS as a home favorite

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:57pm
30. 0 likes

    NFL

    Write-up

    Week 11 NFL schedule

    Sunday, November 18

    Chargers (5-4) @ Jaguars (6-3) —San Diego is +13 in turnovers last five games (13 INTs), with four special teams TDs in last three games, but their passing game has gained just 4.3/3.3 ypa in last two games, as Rivers looked lost. In last three games, Bolts gained 237-229-177 total yards, and have just two offensive TDs on 23 drives (11 3/outs) in last two games; they’re 1-3 on road, routing Denver, but giving up 38-31-35 points in three losses. Jaguars are home for first time in four weeks; they’re 2-2 at Alltel- four of their last five games went over total. Chargers are 5-0 allowing less than 31 points. Would be very concerned about Charger offense.

    Chiefs (4-5) @ Colts (7-2) —Indy lost last two games, now has major injury issues, with Harrison, Freeney, Clark all banged up; they allowed 24-23 points in losing last two games, after not allowing more than 20 in any of seven wins- they’re 3-1 at home, with wins by 41-10/38-20/33-14 scores. Chiefs are 0-2 since bye, losing by 11,16, allowing 30 peg; they didn’t have first down in first half of playoff loss here LY; they’re without QB Huard, star RB Johnson here, as Alabama alum Croyle makes first NFL start. KC is 2-2 on road, 3-1 as road dog. All four Indy games since its bye stayed under the total.

    Raiders (2-7) @ Vikings (3-6) — Star rookie RB Peterson is out (knee) so Viking passing game (less than six yards per attempt in seven of last eight games) will need to produce, but they have started three different QB’s in last three games, so hard to have any continuity there. Oakland is 0-5 since its bye, with losses by 14-2-4-7-11 points; they’re 1-3 on road, 3-1 as road dog, with losses by 3-14-4 points. This is their only game all season on artificial turf. Vikings are 2-2 at home; this is first time they’ve been favored since Week 1, when they beat Falcons 24-3 (-3). Under is 4-0-1 in last five Raider games, but last three games at Metrodome went over.

    Browns (5-4) @ Ravens (4-5) —Baltimore is back to Boller at QB, in midst of three-game skid (three TDs on 35 drives, 10 turnovers in last two games); they lost at home for first time in four tries last week. Ravens ran ball 32 times in last two games, with 73 dropbacks, too much passing for them. In their last 18 trips to red zone, Ravens have four TDs, which is awful. Browns scored 27+ points in each of last four games, behind Raven reject Anderson; they’re just 1-3 on road, beating the 1-8 Rams, allowing 27.8 ppg. Cleveland is 3-0 vs spread when favored this season. Five of last six Raven games stayed under total, but over is 8-1 in Cleveland games.

    Steelers (7-2) @ Jets (1-8) —Indy’s recent struggles put #2 seed in AFC within reach for Steelers, so they can’t afford slip-up here vs Jet squad that last won in Week 3. Pitt is 2-2 on road, 6-3 vs spread as favorite; they scored 30.3 pg in four games since its bye. Jets lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); bye week gave new starting QB Clemens time to work. Last four Jet losses are by 7-7-10-3 points- they were 11-18 on 3rd down in Clemens’ first start, after being 10-37 in previous three, so Clemens can make plays. In last five games, Steelers outrushed opponents by total of 691-323- they need to avoid letdown, after beating three divisional rivals in last three games, with Monday nighter up next.

    Buccaneers (5-4) @ Falcons (3-6) —Tampa allowed 20-33-23-24 points in its losses, 14 or less in its wins; they’re 1-3 on road, winning only at Carolina. Bucs are 0-4 when they don’t win turnover battle, 5-0 when they do. Falcons scored more than 20 in only one ’07 game, although they did get 20 in last two games since bye, both wins. They allowed 14.5 pg in last two games, but opposing QB’s were Smith, Testaverde, so hard to get too excited, although win is a win. Bucs ran ball for 124-136-162 yards in last three games; they were +10/+14 in field position last two games. Last five Atlanta games, and five of last seven Tampa games stayed under total.

    Cardinals (4-5) @ Bengals (3-6) —Arizona is 4-1 when it scores more than 21 points, 0-4 when it does not; Bengals allowed 24+ points in seven of last eight games, shutting down inept Ravens last week- they are 2-2 at home, allowing average of 27.3 pg. Cardinals are 1-4 on road, with losses by 3-3-2-7 points (4-1-1 as underdog, 2-1-1 on road). Bengals were +4/+1/+6 in turnovers in their three wins; they haven’t won a game without winning TO margin. Cards turned ball over 2+ times in each of last six games (-8 in last four games). Cincy is 2-3 as a favorite this season. NFC teams won six of last eight vs AFC, cutting season lead to 20-19.

    Dolphins (0-9) @ Eagles (4-5) —Winless Miami gives BYU rookie Beck his first NFL vs blitzing Eagle defense that allowed 38-25 points last two weeks, after giving up 16.7 pg over first seven games of season. Fish may be 0-9, but they’ve lost five games by a FG, and are 2-1-2 vs spread as road dog. Eagles are 2-3 at home, losing last two there; they’ve only won field position battle twice this year, and both times it was by single yard, but Miami has lost FP by 13-20-17 yards last three weeks. Philly is 0-3 this season in game following a win; they’re 2-4 vs spread as favorite. Over last four games, Miami was outscored 82-20 in first half.

    Patriots (9-0) @ Bills (5-4) —Buffalo is 4-0 since its bye, allowing 12 pg; they’re 4-2 at home, with pair of one-point losses (Denver/ Dallas); they’ve only lost field position battle in one game, but that was 38-7 loss at Foxboro in Week 3, when Pats outgained them 485-193, averaging 10.2 ypa, while Bills averaged just 2.8. NE scored 17 points on its four drives that started in Buffalo territory, while Bills went 3/out on six of 10 drives. Patriots come off bye; they’re 4-0 on orad, winning by 24-21-21- 21-4 points; seven of their nine games went over total. Bills won last four games that stayed under, but are 1-2 if games goes over total- they’re sticking with Losman as starting QB.

    Redskins (5-4) @ Cowboys (8-1) —Dallas won last three games, by 10-21-11 points, scoring 31 pg; they’re 3-0 as home favorite this season, winning 45-35/35-7/24-14- seven of their nine games went over total, as did last four Redskin games. In their nine wins, Pokes outscored foes 170-60 in 2nd half (outscored 27-10 in second half by Patriots, their only loss). Redskins are 2-2 on road, losing 17-14 at Lambeau, 52-7 at Foxboro; they’ve been outscored 80-41 in second half of last five games. Redskins are

    3-0 SU in game following loss this season, 1-1-1 vs spread as the dog. Redskin rush defense allowed 152-124-139 yards in their last three games.

    Saints (4-5) @ Texans (4-5) - N.O. had won four in row before Rams ambushed them in Superdome last week; Bulger was 28-34/276 against Saints, not sure Texans can match that production (12+ IP’s in five of last six games). Saints beat Seattle, 49ers in last two road games- they averaged over seven yards per pass attempt in last three games. Texans are 2-2 at home; they’re 4-1 when allowing 21 or less points, 0-4 when they allow 26+. Saints scored 31-41-29 in last three weeks, and outsacked opponents 17-2 over last six. Saints played last six weeks in row; Texans are coming off their bye week. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Houston games, 4-1 in Saints’ last five.

    Panthers (4-5) @ Packers (8-1) —Green Bay won last four games, allowing 12.5 pg; they scored 67 points in last two games (six TD’s, seven FGA on 20 drives); their four home wins are by 3-7-3-34 points. Carolina has Vinny, Carr back at QB; they’re 0-3 since bye, scoring 9 pg, losing by 24-13-7 points. Panthers averaged 5.1 ypa or less in seven or less eight games, were outscored 41-10 in second half of last three games. Underrated Packer defense allowed only one of last eight opponents to run ball for 95+ yards- their last five foes are combined 12 for last 57 (21.1%) on third down. Last six Carolina games stayed under, as did three of last four Packer tilts.

    Giants (6-3) @ Lions (6-3) —If playoffs started now, these would be two NFC wild cards, so big game in playoff positioning; Detroit has 29 takeaways in nine games, but are only +7, since March Madness doesn’t exactly stress ball security (five TO’s at Arizona last week). Lions lost field position battle in last six games; they’re 1-3 if they don’t win turnover battle. Giants had six-game win streak ended by Dallas last week; they won last three away games, allowing 12.3 pg, but averaged just 3.7/4.5/5.0 ypa in last three games overall. Detroit is 4-0 at home, scoring 31.8 pg- they somehow had -18 rushing yards last week, which isn’t easy to do in NFL.

    Rams (1-8) @ 49ers (2-7) —St Louis is road favorite despite winning first game in Week 10, that’s how awful 49ers are. SF won first meeting 17-16, despite being outgained 392-186; Rams lost three fumbles in game, lost field position battle by 14 yards. Niners are on short week, with funeral of coach Nolan’s dad mixed in; they scored two TD’s on 36 drives in last three games, and scored just two TDs on last 26 drives at home. Rams came off bye and upset Saints in Superdome; Bulger was 28-34/276 in air. Despite records, thinking St Louis is in way better shape mentally at this point, especially with 49ers coming off MNF disaster- they’re four for last 25 on third down.

    Bears (4-5) @ Seahawks (5-4) — Chicago’s QB situation is totally screwed up; they scored three TD’s on last 32 drives, but big one was 61-yard pass to Berrian that beat Raiders and kept Bears alive in race for playoffs. Chicago is 0-3 in game following a win; they’re 4-2 when allowing 20 or less points, 0-3 otherwise, and scored just pair of field goals in first half of last three games. Seattle is 1-3 after win; they had easy win on Monday, no travel, so it shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Bears been held under 100 rushing yards in each of last seven games. Five of last seven Seattle games stayed under total, as did Chicago’s last three contests.

    Monday, November 19

    Titans (6-3) @ Broncos (5-4) —Tennessee is 3-1 on road, losing only by FG at Tampa; three of their four road games were decided by three or less points- they had three-game win streak snapped by jags last week, as Jax outrushed Titans 166-62. Denver won for just second time in seven games at KC last week; they’re 2-3 at home, with both wins by FG. Bronco offense can’t carry team, scoring just three FGs on last 20 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line. Titans turned ball over seven times in last two games- they’re 4-1 if they turn it over less than three times. Under is 6-2-1 in Tennessee games, but seven of last eight Denver games went over.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:57pm
31. 0 likes

    NFL

    Total bias: Week 11 over/under plays

    Sunday, November 18

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NFL over/under picks

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans – over 48

    Forget about Thanksgiving, quarterback Matt Schaub must think Christmas has arrived with the return of his star receiver. Andre Johnson hasn't played since Week 2 but he's ready to make an impact for the Texans.

    Keep in mind Houston has only had Schaub, Johnson and running back Ahman Green on the field together twice this season. Expect Schaub to connect with Johnson for at least one big play.

    The Saints continue to score with ease and struggle to prevent their opponents from doing the same. Cornerback Jason David may go down as the worst free-agent signing ever in professional football.

    Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles – under 40 1/2

    The John Beck era has begun in Miami. The 26-year-old quarterback was named the starter for this weekend's game to try and spark a lackluster offense. Cam Cameron's game plan will likely be run-heavy in an attempt to limit Beck from too many long passing downs.

    I expect Philly to jump out to an early lead and milk the clock. The Eagles just want to grab a win and come out of this game healthy.

    Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos – under 38

    Neither one of these two teams is having a great offensive season. Javon Walker – Denver's most explosive weapon – has been out the majority of the year because of an uncooperative knee.

    The Broncos have struggled stopping the run all season but Tennessee's top two backs are both a little dinged up. Chris Brown (ankle) and LenDale White (knee) will both play but may be limited.

    As mentioned above, Vince Young isn't giving the Titans' consistent quarterback play. Expect a quick game filled with three-and-outs.

    Last week’s record: 3-0

    Season record: 18-12

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 4:59pm
32. 0 likes

    NFL

    NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 11

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Cheat Sheet

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Sunday, November 18

    Arizona at Cincinnati (-3)

    Why Cardinals Cover: Playing for a share of the NFC West lead. Kurt Warner getting healthier and playing better. Are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record while the Bengals are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

    Why Bengals cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite. Home team has won last seven meetings. Receiver Chris Henry returned with a bang last week with four catches for 99 yards. Edgerrin James is only averaging 2.8 yards per carry for his career against Cincinnati.

    Total (48 1/2): Combined teams allowing almost 50 points per game.

    Carolina at Green Bay (-9 1/2)

    Why Panthers cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

    Why Packers cover: Are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Have NFL’s best passing attack (yes, even better than New England’s). Brett Favre has thrown 20 TDs in eight career game against Carolina. Finally found running game with Ryan Grant rumbling for 119 yards against Minnesota’s NFC-best rush defense. Panthers have yet to win at home this season.

    Total (37 1/2): Under is 6-0 in Panthers’ last six games overall.

    Cleveland at Baltimore (+2 1/2)

    Why Browns cover: Coming off heartbreaking loss to Pittsburgh last week. Are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Reeling Ravens have lost three straight. Beat Baltimore 27-13 in first meeting this year.

    Why Ravens cover: Will turn to Kyle Boller in place of Steve McNair who has been horrible and unable to protect the football (seven fumbles). Willis McGahee has rushed for 209 yards and two touchdowns in two career games vs. Cleveland. Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

    Total (43 1/2): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.

    Kansas City at Indianapolis (-14 1/2)

    Why Chiefs cover: Have held opponents to only four rushing touchdowns. Colts are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and will be without defensive end Dwight Freeney who is out for the season with a foot injury.

    Why Colts cover: Trying to avoid losing three straight after starting season 7-0. Are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings. Brodie Croyle will be making his first career start at QB for Kansas City. Chiefs Running back Larry Johnson still out.

    Total (43 1/2): Under is 6-1 in Chiefs’ last seven road games and 4-0 in Colts’ last four games overall.

    Miami at Philadelphia (-10)

    Why Dolphins cover: Have won four of their last six meetings including two of three in Philadelphia. Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Jesse Chatman had breakout game last week with 124 yards rushing while filling in for the injured Ronnie Brown.

    Why Eagles cover: Brian Westbrook is one of the league’s most versatile weapons and has 1,219 all-purpose yards and nine touchdowns this season. Miami is allowing opponents to rush for 149.7 yards per contest. Rookie John Beck will start at quarterback for Miami.

    Total (40 1/2): Under is 7-2 in Philadelphia’s last nine games on grass.

    New Orleans at Houston (-1)

    Why Saints cover: Look to rebound from embarrassing 37-29 home loss to the Rams who were winless at the time. Are third in the NFL with 194 first downs. Held opponents to seven sacks all season. Are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.

    Why Texans cover: Get stud wide receiver Andre Johnson back after being out since mid-September. Saints are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

    Total: (47 1/2): Over is 4-1 in Saints’ last five road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

    Oakland at Minnesota (-5 1/2)

    Why Raiders cover: Daunte Culpepper will make his first career start against the team that drafted him. Vikings without league’s leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, because of a torn LCL ligament. Minnesota has used three quarterbacks this season and none have a QB rating better than 66 percent.

    Why Vikings cover: Holding opponents to 3 yards per rush, second-best in the NFL. Oakland only averaging 155.8 passing yards per game while allowing opponents to rush for 1,298 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.

    Total (35 1/2): Under is 12-3-2 in Raiders’ last 17 road games and 4-0-1 in their last five games overall. Teams own two of the worst passing offenses on the NFL.

    San Diego at Jacksonville (-3)

    Why Chargers cover: Have won four of last five games. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

    Why Jaguars cover: Are back home after going 2-1 on a three-game road trip. Have held LaDainian Tomlinson to 94 yards rushing in last two meetings. Will have starting QB David Garrard back from an ankle injury. Home team has won and covered last two meetings. Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

    Total (40 1/2): Over is 4-0 in Chargers’ last four road games and 4-1 in Jaguars’ last five games overall.

    Tampa Bay at Atlanta (+3)

    Why Buccaneers cover: Coming off bye week. Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Atlanta. Trying to hold division lead in tight NFC South. Are holding opponents to 16 points per game while Atlanta is only averaging 15 points per contest. Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.

    Why Falcons cover: Will have QB Byron Leftwich back from an ankle injury. Have won and covered last two meetings. Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings. Warrick Dunn has brought new life to the running game.

    Total (35 1/2): Under is 4-0 in Buccaneers’ last four vs. NFC and 8-1 in Falcons’ last nine vs. NFC South.

    N.Y. Giants at Detroit (+3)

    Why Giants cover: Lead the NFL with 31 sacks while the Lions have allowed a league-high 32 sacks. Road team has won last five meetings and is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

    Why Lions cover: Haven’t lost at home this season and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

    Total (49 1/2): Under is 4-1 in Giants’ last five road games.

    Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets (+9 1/2)

    Why Steelers cover: Have best defense in league. Jets are only 1-4 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. New York is worst in the NFL in rushing first downs allowed, rushing yards allowed and average yards per passing play allowed.

    Why Jets cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. Kellen Clemens was solid in his first game as the Jets’ new starting quarterback. Willie Parker is questionable with a hip injury.

    Total (40 1/2): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

    Washington at Dallas (-10 1/2)

    Why Redskins cover: Holding Terrell Owens to 38.3 receiving yards per game for his career. Clinton Portis finally appears healthy and has rushed for 333 yards in his past two games. Are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

    Why Cowboys cover: Are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Redskins will be without Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor who has a knee injury. Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games and 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Dallas. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

    Total (46 1/2): Under is 5-2-2 in the last nine meetings and 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Dallas.

    St. Louis at San Francisco (+3)

    Why Rams cover: Coming off first victory of season, over New Orleans. Lead the NFL in interceptions. Trent Dilfer will start at QB for 49ers. San Francisco has totaled fewer than 200 yards of offense five times this season.

    Why 49ers cover: Frank Gore has six touchdowns in five games versus the Rams who have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season. Are holding Steven Jackson to 3.7 yards per carry for his career. Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in San Francisco. Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.

    Total (40 1/2): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

    Chicago at Seattle (-6)

    Why Bears cover: Have outstanding special teams. Won last two meetings. Holding opponents to 12.7 points in their last three games.

    Why Seahawks cover: Have only allowed five passing touchdowns this season. Rex Grossman will start at QB for Chicago. Have changed offense to be more pass oriented, taking pressure off a banged-up Shaun Alexander. Bears having difficulty running the ball all season.

    Total (37 1/2): Under is 7-1 in Seahawks’ last eight home games.

    New England at Buffalo (+15)

    Why Patriots cover: Will want to silence critics (Don Shula, Mercury Morris) who have voiced negative opinions about the Patriots possibly going undefeated. Beat Buffalo 38-7 in late September. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Buffalo and 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings overall. Favorite is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

    Why Bills cover: Are 5-1 since losing to New England in Week 3. Holding opponents to 17.8 points per game at home. Are 5-0 ATS at home.

    Total (46 1/2): Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Buffalo and 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.

    Monday, November 19

    Tennessee at Denver (-2 1/2)

    Why Titans cover: Could get run-stopping defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth back from a hamstring injury. League’s fourth-best rush offense gets to face NFL’s 31st-ranked rush defense. Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.

    Why Broncos cover: Rookie Selvin Young filled in admirably for an injured Travis Henry, rushing for 109 yards and a score against a tough Chiefs defense. Are averaging 5.66 yards per offensive play, sixth best in the league. Have averaged 36 points per game in their last two meetings while holding the Titans to 13 points per contest. Home team has won eight of last 10 meetings.

    Total (38): Over is 9-1 in Broncos’ last 10 home games and 13-3 in their last 16 games overall.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 16 2007 5:00pm
33. 0 likes

    SERVICE REPORT

    ATS Lock Club..................7*Georgia & Washington State

    .........................................6*Notre Dame

    .........................................5*Texas Tech, Michigan & Purdue

    .........................................4*Louisia na Tech, Florida St & Iowa State

    A-Play...............................WestVa/Cinn(O)

    Big Ten Sports..................Shocker Of The Year: Michigan

    Dave Cokin........................Under The Hat: Ga Tech, UConn & Georgia

    ..........................................Window Play: Rutgers

    ..........................................System Play: Mississippi & Miami(Fla)

    ..........................................Big Shot: Houston

    ..........................................3*New Mexico State & Kansas

    Director Sports..................Specials: Iowa, Oklahoma & Floirda Intl

    "Doc".................................6*Indian a

    ..........................................5*Clemso n & Michigan State

    ..........................................4*Cincin nati & Iowa State

    Doctor Bob.........................4*South Florida

    ..........................................3*Washin gton State

    ..........................................2*Clemso n

    Brandon Lang...................50*Clemson

    .........................................30*Virgin ia Tech & Tulsa

    .........................................20*Missio uri & Tennessee

    .........................................15*Arkans as & Mississippi

    Frank Magliosa..................Mississippi, Michigan & Washington State

    Glen McGrew....................San Diego State

    Gold Sheet........................Top: Michigan State

    ..........................................Regular: U Conn,NCState,Maryland,New Mex,OSU/WSU(U)

    Guarantee Picks................Notre Dame

    Jim Feist............................Inner Circle: Buffalo

    ..........................................Platinum : Michigan St, Minnesota & Northwestern

    ..........................................Personal Best: Michigan & Virginia Tech

    ..........................................5*Clemso n & Cincinnati

    ..........................................4*Kansas State 3*Vanderbilt

    Joe Gavazzi(PPP)..............5*Houston & Washington State

    ..........................................4*Clemso n & Pittsburgh

    ..........................................3*NC State, Iowa St, West Va, UConn, Navy, Illinois

    Las Vegas Sports...............10*Clemson, Utah & Air Force

    Lenny Stevens...................Game Of The Year: Utah

    ..........................................20*India na

    ..........................................10*Cinci nnati, Michigan & UTEP

    Marc Lawrence.................Big 10 Game Of The Year: Michigan

    Northcoast..........................Should Have On Final Report

    Northcoast(Small Coll).......3*Western Michigan

    Northcoast(Totals)..............Total Of The Year: UAB/Memphis(O)

    ...........................................3*WestV a/Cin(U) & MSU/Ark(U)

    Purelock............................Kansas State

    Rocketman........................3*Oregon State

    ..........................................2*Vander bilt & Boston College

    Texas Sports Brokers........10*TCU 5*Texas Tech

    Underdog Sportsline.........Big 10 Game Of The Year: Michigan

    VIP Lock Club...................1000 Utah

    ..........................................500*Iowa

    ..........................................250*Conn ecticut

    Wayne Root.......................Billionaire: Texas Tech

    ..........................................Milliona ire: Wyoming

    ...........................................Perfect Play: Vanderbilt

    ...........................................Inner Circle: Boston College

    ..........................................No Limit Game Of The Year: Kansas State

    ..........................................Money Maker: Cincinnati

    ..........................................Chairman Of The Board: Michigan

    Winners Path.....................Top: Notre Dame

    ..........................................Regular: Buffalo, TCU & Boston College

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 17 2007 11:35am
34. 0 likes

    Tom Stryker's 5-Star Internet College Game of the Year - 14-0 ATS System!

    #338 ARKANSAS (-) over Mississippi State at 2 PM EST

    Thanks to last week's results this game sets up nicely. Arkansas enters it final home game of the season off a blowout loss at Tennessee while Mississippi State arrives off its impressive home win over Alabama.

    Technically speaking, the Razorbacks are locked into one of my strongest Last Home Game systems and I'm going to ride the Pigs straight to the bank. According to my college football database, greater than .500 last home game conference favorites priced at -9' or more are a powerful 23-5 ATS provided they enter off a straight up loss of 21 points or more and they are matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage less than .700. If our host enters off a decent offensive performance in which they scored 11 points or more last, this system hits perfection at 14-0 ATS! Arkansas fits the general situation and the perfect tightener.

    Off back-to-back straight up dog wins over Kentucky and Alabama, Mississippi State gets to face the Razorbacks for an encore. This is not a good spot for the Bulldogs. Coming off two or more straight up wins and matched up against an opponent that arrives off a blowout loss of 10 points or more, MSU is a dismal 6-12 ATS!

    The Pigs got cooked by the Vols last week. They'll bounce back nicely here. Take Arkansas. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 17 2007 11:35am
35. 0 likes

    Some of the GOY GOM GOD etc...

    Larry Ness' 20* SEC Game of the Year Arkansas

    Score GOY- Okla. ST

    MARC LWARENCE Goy 10* Michigan +4

    Ben Burns Big 10 GOM MICHIGAN (+3 or better)

    MO MONEY NCAA GOY-- OHIO ST 6* Unit XL Large

    Tom Stryker's C-USA GOY CENT FLORIDA over SMU by 24

    Big Ten Sports Shocker Of The Year: Michigan

    Lenny Stevens Game Of The Year: Utah

    Northcoast Game Of The Week: NC State

    Northcoast(Totals) Total Of The Year: UAB/Memphis(O)

    Underdog Sportsline Big 10 Game Of The Year: Michigan

    Windy City Sports Total Of The Year: Calif/Wash(O)

    Blazer GOY T.C.U

    BIG AL Big 10 GOM Michigan

    Jeff Cline 50*Game Of The Year: Florida State

    Red Zone SMALL SCHOOL GAME OF THE YEAR SATURDAY NIGHT

    UL Lafayette – 4

    Dino GOM 15* KAN ST + 7 1/2 ( -120 ) - BOUGHT THE HOOK

    IndianCowboy Play of the Day Maryland Terrapin +7.5

    Silver Fox Game Of The Year Louisville

    Moneyman Game Of The Year florida State

    Norm Hiztges Tripple Play-Biggest Play So Far This Year TCU

    Tom Stryker's 5-Star Internet College GOY Arkansas

    Zach Ziglar Dog of the Year: Minnesota +13.5

    Live Dog Goy - Washington St

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 17 2007 2:06pm
36. 0 likes

    SELECTIVE SPORTS

    LSU/Ole Miss Under 54 for 5 units

    Michigan +4.5 for 4 units

    S-Miss/Utep Over 66 for 4 units

    Minnesota +14 for 4 units

    --------------------------------------------

    Van Winkle Sports

    CFB

    PURDUE -2.5

    Best Bet! TULSA -14.5

    --------------------------------------------

    Ben Burns

    #1 Total of the Week

    UNDER cincinnati/west virginia

    personal favorite

    CLEMSON

    Big 10 GOM

    MICHIGAN (+3 or better)

    3 game exec report

    GEORGIA (-10 or better)

    FLORIDA STATE (-10 or better)

    KANSAS STATE (+6 or better)

    --------------------------------------------

    GARY GREENE

    top play

    Arkansas (-11)

    --------------------------------------------

    Larry Ness

    Legend Play

    South Florida

    --------------------------------------------

    Spylock

    1 Ohio State

    1 U Conn

    --------------------------------------------

    Robert Ferringo

    COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

    4.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #368 Kansas State (+7.5) over Missouri (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)

    4.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #370 Michigan (+4) over Ohio State (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 17)

    Note: This is our Big 10 Game of the Year.

    4-UNIT PLAY. Take #337 Mississippi State (+11) over Arkansas (2 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)

    3-UNIT PLAY. Take #354 Rice (-2) over Tulane (3 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)

    2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #322 Cincinnati (+6.5) over West Virginia (7:45 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)

    2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #371 Miami (+17) over Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)

    2.5-UNIT PLAY. Take #326 Indiana (+2.5) over Purdue (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 17)

    --------------------------------------------

    Doc"s Sports

    4 Unit Play. #12 Take Central Michigan -13 over Eastern Michigan (Friday 7:00 pm)

    4 Unit Play. #16 Take Cincinnati +6 ½ over West Virginia (Saturday 7:45 pm ESPN)

    5 Unit Play. #18 Take Clemson -7 ½ over Boston College (Saturday 7:45 pm ESPN 2)

    4 Unit Play. #21 Take Iowa State +26 over Kansas (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC Regional)

    5 Unit Play. #26 Take Michigan State +2 ½ over Penn State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC Regional)

    4 Unit Play. #28 Take Minnesota +14 over Wisconsin (Saturday 3:30 pm Big Ten Network)

    4 Unit Play. #52 Take Notre Dame -6 over Duke (Saturday 2:30 pm NBC)

    6 Unit Play. #60 Take Indiana +2 ½ over Purdue (Saturday 3:30 pm Big Ten Network)

    4 Unit Play. #76 Take Buffalo +1 over Bowling Green (Saturday 1:00 pm)

    --------------------------------------------

    Mike Devine Sports

    Best Bet!

    NOTRE DAME -5.5

    --------------------------------------------

    Dr Bob

    Rotation #386 South Florida (-7) 4-Stars at -7 or less, 3-Stars from -7 1/2 to -10, 2- Stars at -10 1/2 or -11.

    Rotation #380 Washington State (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -2 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -3.

    Rotation #374 Clemson (-7 1/2) 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or less, 3-Stars at -7 or less.

    Rotation #312 Nevada (+7) 2-Stars at +7 or more.

    Strong Opinion - Rotation #310 Central Michigan (-13) Strong Opinion at -13 or less.

    Strong Opinion - Rotation #322 Cincinnati (+6 1/2) Strong Opinion at +5 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

    Strong Opinion - Rotation #330 Buffalo (+1) Strong Opinion at -1 or better. 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more.

    Strong Opinion - Rotation #339 Utah State (+9 1/2) Strong Opinion at +7 1/2 or more, 2- Star Best Bet at +10 or more.

    Strong Opinion - Rotation #371 Miami-Florida (+16 1/2) Strong Opinion at +15 or more, 2- Star Best Bet at +17 or more.

    Strong Opinion - Rotation #378 Utah (-14 1/2) Strong Opinion at -16 or less.

    Strong Opinion - Rotation #394 Rutgers (-11 1/2) Strong Opinion at -12 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -10 or less.

    --------------------------------------------

    NORTH COAST

    EARLY BIRD

    Navy -15.5

    NORTHCOAST BIG DOGS

    North Carolina

    Vandy

    MississippiState

    NewMexico

    Pittsburg

    Miami, FL

    WesternMichigan

    --------------------------------------------

    Marc Lawrence

    PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB

    PLAY AGAINST: Illinois

    --------------------------------------------

    Red Sheet 11/15

    Clem37-17 ov BC 89

    Kan 58-13 ov I St 89

    Temple 27-17 ov Kent 88

    NCST 24-23 ov WF 88

    Ark 41-14 ov Miss St 88

    --------------------------------------------

    STEAM SHEET

    Danny's Upset Special

    3* NORTHWESTERN over Illinois by 1

    STAT SYSTEM

    KANSAS

    UPSET SPECIAL

    3* CINCINNATI over W Virginia by 7

    BLOWOUT SPECIAL

    3* HOUSTON over Marshall by 21

    --------------------------------------------

    MTI

    COLLEGE SYSTEM OF THE WEEK

    FLORIDA ATLANTIC

    --------------------------------------------

    Winning Points

    College Best Bets

    ****Clemson over Boston College by 28

    *** San Diego St over Air force by 4

    Preferred

    Central Mich over Eastern Mich by 24

    Notre Dame over Duke by 19

    Purdue over Indiana by 12

    NC State over Wake forest by 6

    --------------------------------------------

    Power Plays

    4* Selections

    4* Connecticut

    4* BYU

    4* Mississippi State

    4* Notre Dame

    4* Navy

    4* Memphis

    4* Washington

    4* LSU

    4* Georgia

    4* Missouri

    4* Clemson

    4* San Jose State

    4* Wisconsin

    4* Illinois

    --------------------------------------------

    Sports Reporter

    NCAA:

    Best Bet: Arkansas

    Best Bet: Vanderbilt

    Best Bet: Memphis

    SUPER Best Bet: Michigan

    Best Bet: Minnesota

    Best Bet: Pittsburgh

    --------------------------------------------

    Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)

    Gator's NCAA Game of the Week Report

    SEC GOW (2-3 -1.3)(Saturday): Arkansas -10.5

    MWC GOW (0-0 0.0)(Saturday): Utah -14.5

    ACC GOW (0-0 0-0)(Saturday): Clemson -7.5

    Gator's Super System Selections

    Clemson -7

    Gator's 70% Situational Report

    NCAA (Saturday):

    Clemson OVER

    HOUSTON

    --------------------------------------------

    CKO

    10 TULSA over *Army

    Late Score Forecast:

    TULSA 43 - *Army 17

    10 *TEMPLE over Kent State

    Late Score Forecast:

    *TEMPLE 27 - Kent State 19

    10 UAB over *Memphis

    Late Score Forecast:

    UAB 31 - *Memphis 33

    10 NORTH CAROLINA STATE over *Wake Forest

    Late Score Forecast:

    N.C. STATE 24 - *Wake Forest 20

    --------------------------------------------

    Power Sweep

    NCAA

    4* WVU

    3* BYU and Clemson

    2* Wisky, Washington, and Kansas

    Underdog: NC St

    --------------------------------------------

    GOLD SHEET

    KANSAS by 38 over Iowa State

    DUKE by 7 over Notre Dame

    MARYLAND by 4 over Florida State

    TCU by 28 over UN Las Vegas

    --------------------------------------------

    TOM STYKER

    IOWA

    --------------------------------------------

    kodiak

    10 mich ml +155

    20 mich +4

    5 tt o 66

    5 kan st +7

    5 mich st +3

    5 cinc +7 -120

    5 buff ml (no ml listed, so +1 -110)

    --------------------------------------------

    allan eastman

    3 mich +4'

    3 kentky +7'

    3 ind +2'

    3 nev +7

    --------------------------------------------

    gary greene bluebook

    arkansas (-11) top play

    --------------------------------------------

    TEDDY COVERS:

    11/17/07 CFB 20* Big Ticket: San Diego State +11 (335)

    11/17/07 CFB Michigan +4 (370)

    11/17/07 CFB Louisiana Tech -5.5 (382)

    11/17/07 CFB South Florida -8 (386)

    --------------------------------------------

    Tim Trushel 20*

    pittsburgh

    --------------------------------------------

    Dave Malinsky

    CFB

    6* Notre Dame

    6* San Diego State /Air force Over

    4* Northwestern

    4* Connetcuit

    4* South Florida

    --------------------------------------------

    ASA

    ASA 4-STAR ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (-11) over Mississippi State Bulldogs

    ASA 4-Star Michigan State (+3) over Penn State Saturday - 2:30 pm CST

    ASA 4-Star Indiana (+2.5) over Purdue Saturday - 2:30 pm CST

    ASA Top Game CLEMSON TIGERS (-8.5) over Boston College Eagles

    --------------------------------------------

    king creole

    OKLAHOMA SOONERS @ TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

    3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

    1* OVER the TOTAL / BOSTON COLLEGE @ CLEMSON / 7:45pm ET (time change) / ESPN2 TV

    --------------------------------------------

    fairway jay

    20* sec total GOY

    arkansas under

    --------------------------------------------

    teddy covers

    20* mountain west GOY

    san diego st..

    --------------------------------------------

    joe atkins

    10* bowling green over

    --------------------------------------------

    ethan law

    game of the month

    Verdict: Bowling Green 24, Buffalo 31

    PLAY 2* UNITS ON BUFFALO

    --------------------------------------------

    gameday

    4* gow

    florida state

    --------------------------------------------

    randy white

    cowboy club goy

    missouri

    --------------------------------------------

    ron raymond

    5 units oklahoma -8

    --------------------------------------------

    mel stewart

    BLOWOUT of the Week

    Boise St. -33

    --------------------------------------------

    Pointwise Phones

    4* NC St., Arkansas

    3* Kansas, Central Michigan, TCU, Northwestern, Clemson, Oklahoma St., Houston

    2* Pitt.

    --------------------------------------------

    madduxsports

    #322 - NCAA - 3 units on Cincinnati +7 -120

    #346 - NCAA - 5 units on Kansas -26

    #364 - NCAA - 3 units on Mississippi +19.5

    #374 - NCAA - 3 units on Clemson -6.5 -120

    #378 - NCAA - 3 units on Utah -14.5

    #386 - NCAA - 4 units on South Florida -6.5 -120

    --------------------------------------------

    Nationwide (goldst) :

    Top: Mich St,

    Reg: Conn, Ore St Under, Md, N Mex, Nc St

    --------------------------------------------

    Private Players PPP

    5*

    Wash St

    4*

    clem

    Pitt

    3*

    Iowa St

    Nc St

    --------------------------------------------

    Inside Info :

    3*

    g.tech

    Hou

    2*

    New Mex

    --------------------------------------------

    Scott Spreitzer

    Game of Year

    Arkansas

    --------------------------------------------

    nevada club

    tulsa

    --------------------------------------------

    glen mcgrew

    best bet - san diego st

    --------------------------------------------

    mike warren

    platinum play - georiga

    navy

    --------------------------------------------

    Reed Harris

    conf. usa GOY

    houston u.

    --------------------------------------------

    JIM KRUGER - NCAA FOOTS

    # 370 Michigan +4 over Ohio State - Silver 4* 1.5 Unit Play

    # 326 Indiana +1.5 over Purdue - Bronze 3*

    # 335 San Diego State +11 over Air Force - Bronze 3*

    # 386 South Florida -8.5 over Louisville - Bronze 3*

    # 383 NC State +6 over Wake Forest - Bronze 3*

    Logged

    Uncle Jay

    Administrator

    Hero Member

    Respect: 2

    Offline

    Posts: 614

    Re: Saturday 11-17 Service Plays

    « Reply #1 on: Today at 09:14:50 AM »

    Marc Lawrence

    10 * GOY

    Michigan

    --------------------------------------------

    Brandon Lang

    SATURDAY

    50 DIME

    CLEMSON TIGERS

    30 DIME

    Virginia Tech

    Tulsa

    20 DIME

    Missouri

    Temple

    15 DIME

    Arkansas

    Ole Miss

    --------------------------------------------

    Steve Budin

    Va Teach

    --------------------------------------------

    Trey Johnsons

    Big Bad Blowout of the Month!

    3* Selection

    Oklahoma St (-) over Baylor at 7:00 PM EST

    Conference Crusher of the Week!

    Purdue (-) over Indiana at 3:30 PM EST

    10* Clemson

    --------------------------------------------

    Alex Smart

    Game of the Year

    6 units BC +8.5

    2 units Rice -2 2

    2 units Texas Tech +9

    --------------------------------------------

    Purelock

    CFB

    Kansas State + Points

    CBB

    Florida State - Points

    NBA

    Seattle + Points (NBA)

    --------------------------------------------

    Keslo Sturgeon

    Chairmans Club = 10 units Iowa -14 v. W. Mich

    Best Bets =

    5 units =N. Carolina +9.5 @ Georgia Tech

    4 units = NC State +6.5 @ Wake

    3 units = Louisville +8.5 @ S Flor

    --------------------------------------------

    Stan Sharp

    CFB Side

    Triple-Dime bet Penn St. -2.5 (-110) vs Michigan St.

    --------------------------------------------

    Ethan Law

    2* BUFFALO PICK?EM

    1* SOUTH FLORIDA -8.5

    1* K-STATE +7.5

    1* NW +14

    1* MICHIGAN +4

    OPINION SELECTIONS:

    1/2* SAN DIEGO STATE +11

    1/2* BAYLOR +14

    1/2* MINNESOTA +14

    1/2* TEXAS TECH +7.5

    1/2* LOUISIANA TECH -5.5

    --------------------------------------------

    Las Vegas Tout

    CFB

    Ohio State at Michigan pointspread Michigan +4 3

    Northwestern at Illinois pointspread Northwestern +13.5

    3

    Kentucky at Georgia pointspread Georgia -7.5 2

    BYU at Wyoming pointspread Wyoming +10 5

    Idaho at Boise State pointspread Boise State -34 3

    Oklahoma State at Baylor pointspread Oklahoma State -14

    3

    UNLV at TCU pointspread TCU -17 3

    Southern Miss at Texas El Paso pointspread Texas El Paso

    +3 5

    CBB

    Illinois at Hawaii pointspread Illinois -4 3

    NFL

    Miami at Philadelphia pointspread Miami +10 3

    Tampa Bay at Atlanta pointspread Tampa Bay -3 4

    Carolina at Green Bay pointspread Green Bay -10 4

    Carolina at Green Bay moneyline Green Bay -400 5

    New Orleans at Houston moneyline New Orleans +104 4

    NY Giants at Detroit moneyline Detroit +134 4

    Washington at Dallas pointspread Washington +10.5 2

    New England at Buffalo pointspread Buffalo +16 4

    --------------------------------------------

    Big Al McMordie

    Big 10 GOM

    Michigan

    --------------------------------------------

    Jeff Bonds

    CFB Side

    triple-dime Mississippi +19.0

    --------------------------------------------

    Vegashotsheet

    premier picks:

    1. Oklahoma -15

    2. California -7

    3. Oklahoma St. -15

    silver rated picks:

    1. Buffalo -1.5

    2. Notre Dame -5.5

    3. Houston -11.5

    4. Michigan +4

    5. New Mexico -14.5

    6. Northwestern +13.5

    --------------------------------------------

    Hsw Early Phones

    South Florida

    Logged

    Uncle Jay

    Administrator

    Hero Member

    Respect: 2

    Offline

    Posts: 614

    Re: Saturday 11-17 Service Plays

    « Reply #2 on: Today at 11:25:38 AM »

    HSW Early Phones

    6* South Florida

    5* Boston College

    4* Florida State

    --------------------------------------------

    CHARLIES SPORTS

    MEMBERS SECTION

    saturday november 17, 2007. (early card)

    ncaaf. michigan+4 (500* )

    ncaaf. missouri-7 (30*)

    ncaaf. florida state-7' (20*)

    ncaaf. rutgers-12 (20*)

    ncaaf. tulsa-15 (10*)

    ncaaf. florida-34 (10*)

    --------------------------------------------

    Jim Feist

    Inner Circle

    buffalo

    Platinum

    Mich st

    Minn

    N Western

    Personal Best

    Mich

    Va Tech

    Island Source

    NC State

    Serial Game

    BYU

    --------------------------------------------

    Scott Sprietzer

    5 star Hammer

    Cent Florida

    3 star Hammer

    New Mexico State

    TKO

    Memphis

    Southern Miss

    N Western

    KO

    Houston

    Navy

    Conf USA GOM

    Rice

    Mountain West GOM

    Air Force

    Main Event

    Michigan

    GOY

    Arkansas

    --------------------------------------------

    Dave Cokin

    Fat man releases

    Arkansa

    Vanderbilt

    Michigan

    Under the Hat

    Georgia Tech

    UCONN

    Georgia

    Window

    Rutgers

    Totals

    Navy over 72.5

    California under 57.5

    Big Shot

    Houston

    System Play

    Miami Florida

    --------------------------------------------

    Wayne Root

    Perfect Vandy

    Millionaire Wyoming

    Chairman Mich

    Billionaire Tex Tech

    Inner Cirl BC

    Money Maker Cinc

    No Limit GOY Kansas St

    --------------------------------------------

    Brandon Lovell

    Ohio st. 1st half under (GOY)

    --------------------------------------------

    Lenny Stevens

    20 GOY Utah

    20 Indiana

    10 Mich

    10 Cinn

    10 Utep

    --------------------------------------------

    OC Dooley Card

    4-UNITS on Michigan +4' (Best Bet)

    3-UNITS on Northern Illinois/Navy UNDER 72' (Triple Play totals major)

    2-UNITS on Buffalo (pick)

    2-UNITS on Rutgers -12'

    2-UNITS on Tulane +3

    2-UNITS on Florida International +4

    2-UNITS on Boston College/Clemson UNDER 53

    --------------------------------------------

    Sebastian

    150* Arkansas -12

    100* Georgia -7

    50* Kansas St. +7

    30* FSU -7

    30* Tex Tech +8

    20* VA Tech -16

    20* Baylor +14

    20* TCU -17

    20* Washington St. -3

    20* NC St. +6

    --------------------------------------------

    LOCKSMITH SPORTS.

    Kansas st..

    San Diego st..

    Indiana

    --------------------------------------------

    Coach Ron Meyer

    Chalkboard

    Michigan

    Coach Consensus

    Fsu

    Lockerroom

    Vandy

    Live Dog Goy

    Washington St

    Playbook

    Notre Dame

    Dallas Sportsline

    Wyoming

    --------------------------------------------

    Bob Balfe

    Saturday Card

    College Football

    Ohio State -4 over Michigan

    Minnesota/Wisconsin Over 58

    Syracuse +20 over UConn

    NBA Basketball

    Wizard -6 over Trailblazers

    College Basketball

    Western Kentucky -11.5 over Murray State

    --------------------------------------------

    Trev Rogers

    BIG 12 GOY

    Kansas State

    --------------------------------------------

    MIKE LINEBACK

    4* Premium #345 Iowa State +27 -110 @ 3:30p

    ET.

    4* Premium #365-366 Kentucky vs. Georgia OVER 60.5

    -110 @ 12:30p ET.

    4* Premium #368 Kansas State +7.5 -120 (1/2

    pt. buy) @ 12:30p ET.

    3* Opinion #387-388 Wiscosin vs. Minnesota

    OVER 57.5 -110 @ 3:30p ET.

    --------------------------------------------

    DR CHAD

    7 unit on TCU GAME OF YEAR!

    5 units on V Tech, Cincy, and Washington

    3 units on DUKE and LOUISVILLE

    --------------------------------------------

    marc lawrence

    revenge gow indiana

    --------------------------------------------

    IndianCowboy

    Game: Maryland Terrapin @ Florida State Seminoles - Saturday November 17, 2007 12:00 pm

    Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Maryland Terrapin +7.5 (-109) (Play of the Day)

    Hilton Selections

    Texans

    Titans

    Cardinals

    Panthers

    Ravens

    --------------------------------------------

    Norm Hiztges

    Triple Play

    TCU

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 17 2007 2:09pm
37. 0 likes

    GOM's GOY's GOD's

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Up to date from page one to this post...

    Larry Ness' 20* SEC Game of the Year Arkansas

    Score GOY- Okla. ST

    MARC LWARENCE Goy 10* Michigan +4

    Ben Burns Big 10 GOM MICHIGAN (+3 or better)

    MO MONEY NCAA GOY-- OHIO ST 6* Unit XL Large

    Tom Stryker's C-USA GOY CENT FLORIDA over SMU by 24

    Big Ten Sports Shocker Of The Year: Michigan

    Lenny Stevens Game Of The Year: Utah

    Northcoast Game Of The Week: NC State

    Northcoast(Totals) Total Of The Year: UAB/Memphis(O)

    Underdog Sportsline Big 10 Game Of The Year: Michigan

    Windy City Sports Total Of The Year: Calif/Wash(O)

    Blazer GOY T.C.U

    BIG AL Big 10 GOM Michigan

    Jeff Cline 50*Game Of The Year: Florida State

    Red Zone SMALL SCHOOL GAME OF THE YEAR SATURDAY NIGHT

    UL Lafayette – 4

    IndianCowboy Play of the Day Maryland Terrapin +7.5

    Silver Fox Game Of The Year Louisville

    Moneyman Game Of The Year florida State

    Norm Hiztges Tripple Play-Biggest Play So Far This Year TCU

    Tom Stryker's 5-Star Internet College GOY Arkansas

    Zach Ziglar Dog of the Year: Minnesota +13.5

    Live Dog Goy - Washington St

    No Limit GOY K St

    DR CHAD GAME OF YEAR 7 unit on TCU

    Spritzer conf usa gom rice

    Spritzer mountain west gom aforce

    Spritzer goy Arkansas

    Alex Smart GOTY BC +8.5 6 units

    glen mcgrew best bet san diego st.

    reed harris conf. usa goy houston u

    mel stewart Underdog GOW BOSTON COLLEGE +8.5

    ASA Top Game CLEMSON TIGERS (-8.5)

    teddy covers 20* mountain west goy san diego st

    gameday 4* gow florida state

    randy white cowboy club goy Missouri

    Steven Budin 20 DIME PLAY VIRGINIA TECH

    Mighty ! Quinn best bet duke

    Burns #1 total of the week UNDER cincinnati/west Virginia

    gary greene bluebook top play arkansas (-11)

    the pro source ** TOP Play CUSA GOY Memphis U -11 **

    Alatex goy BC

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 17 2007 2:10pm