nba picks for Monday Nov. 12'th
Jesus I had a bad week last week 9-10-1 ATS on the year got absolutely slaughtered in NBA last week after a 7-2-1 ATS first week. I'll right the ship and be back with a play on this thread tonight.
take care..off to the fricken dentist
posted by pc7588
2 replies
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LONG SEASON GL
posted by takis28
Nov. 12 2007 10:29am -
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Had a solid first week
Had an abysmal second week.
Week 3 starts today
Overall NBA: 9-10-1 ATS
Week 3: 0-0 and can't wait to start a new week.
I think I've found a gem..let's find out.
Sacramento @ Utah:
Tip: 8:05 PM CST
Line as of 5:20 PM CST on bookmaker: Utah -14 / 205 1/2
PLAY:
ROLL WITH ME ON Utah and Sac Town under 205 1/2.
This is a sketchy play when you first look at it.
The Jazz are 5-2 on the over this year.
In 7 games this year they have scored over 100 6 times and 95 on the 7'th against the Spurs.
The Kings are 4-2 ATS on the UNDER this year, but have allowed lots of points on the road.
here's why I'm playing the under:
86% of pub on the over and the line is going down.
Gut instinct: Utah plays much better defense at home and it shows, with the emergence of AK-47 (Andre Kirilenko) back in the saddle offensively, the team has time to set their defense. I know it sounds silly but watch the game tonight, AK and Boozer give Utah a chance to set their D with solid defenders Ronnie Brewer and Deron Williams giving fits to the opposing point. I can't see Kevin Martin getting his 22+ tonight in Utah.
I also believe this series is traditionally low scoring @ Utah. Last time out they didn't break 190 in Salt Lake.
The Kings are currently on a 3 game under streak, the jazz 2 games under.
By breaking down the game, utah should pull away and win with scrubs in the 4'th. But I think the Kings have enough inside with Miller defending that Utah will be forced to bomb away from the perimeter. I'll take my chances on the under if AK/Brewer/and Deron have to beat me. Boozer is a monster, but has bad numbers against the Kings as Miller usually defends him well in the paint.
Dicey play but I like it and am playing it.
ROLL WITH ME ON SAC TOWN/UTAH under 205 1/2
2 unit play for me.
posted by pc7588
Nov. 12 2007 6:47pm