NEWSLETTERS FOR WEEK OF 11/6
Pointwise
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CENTRAL FLORIDA over Uab RATING: 1 52-13
KANSAS over Oklahoma State RATING: 1 45-28
AUBURN over Georgia RATING: 2 27-20
WEST VIRGINIA over Louisville RATING: 3 55-27
MISSOURI over Texas A&M RATING: 4 48-20
PURDUE over Michigan State RATING: 4 37-23
OHIO STATE over Illinois RATING: 5 41-10
IOWA over Minnesota RATING: 5 45-13
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland RATING: 2 34-17
BALTIMORE over Cincinnati RATING: 3 27-20
MINNESOTA over Green Bay RATING: 4 26-24
NEW ORLEANS over St Louis RATING: 4 37-13
OAKLAND over Chicago RATING: 5 23-19
posted by phantom
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CKO Vol. 46 - November 8 - 12, 2007 - No. 11
11 BUFFALO over *Miami
Late Score Forecast:
BUFFALO 31 - *Miami 16
There was no "drawing board" for Miami HC Cam Cameron to go back to during winless Dolphins' bye week. After all, the triumvirate that was supposed to be the cornerstone of '07 Miami offense when the regular season commenced is either done for the year with injury (QB Trent Green & RB Ronnie Brown) or has been traded away (WR Chris Chambers), leaving behind a makeshift attack and a leaky "D" allowing NFL-worst 31 ppg. And now Cameron is apparently ready to let BYU rookie QB John Beck sink or swim for the rest of the campaign. So, this becomes a great chance for Dick Jauron's surging Buffalo bunch (won last 3, covered last 5) to continue recent uptick, especially with rookie RB Lynch (153 YR last week) emerging as the playmaker that Bills "O" previously lacked.
10 *MISSOURI over Texas A&M
Late Score Forecast:
*MISSOURI 45 - Texas A&M 16
Respected Big XII scouts firmly believe oddsmakers continue to undervalue a sizzling Missouri squad (7-1 vs. spread, up to 7th in BCS!) that suffers no letdown (following 1st victory at Colorado since 1997) in this major payback game vs. Texas A&M. Tigers Heisman hopeful jr. QB Daniels (69%, 2954 YP, 23 TDs), deep RB corps, and outstanding group of WRs & TEs will light scoreboard vs. penetrable A&M defense (26 ppg) that's had trouble vs. both run & pass (254 ypg, 16 TDs, just 5 ints.). On other side, Aggies predictable, run-oriented attack converts few 3rd downs vs. unified, toughening Mizzou defense inspired by injured star SS "Pig" Brown, who now serves as cheerleader & coach from sidelines on pair of crutches. And you can bet A&M's erratic-passing QB McGee won't come close to duplicating LY's uncharacteristic stats (19 of 23 for 183 yds.) vs. super-intense Tiger stop unit that's allowed just 3 meaningful TDs in 3 Big XII home games this season. Aggies just 2-9 as DD road dog since 97.
10 *TENNESSEE over Arkansas
Late Score Forecast:
*TENNESSEE 38 - Arkansas 29
Darren McFadden's huge game (323 YR, 1 TD pass) last week at home vs. South Carolina was extremely impressive (on the oddsmakers, as well as the public). But, as usual, points and yards will be harder to come by on the SEC road, especially at Knoxville, where the Razorbacks haven't won since 1992! And, while the Hogs hold the rushing edge, the Volunteers are much better balanced, with sr. QB Erik Ainge (65%, 15 TDs, only 5 ints.). UT is still in the thick of the wide-open race in the SEC East, and the Vols were able to sharpen their run defense and give key players some rest last week with their easy 59-7 victory over ground-oriented La.-Lafayette. With Arkansas QB Casey Dick (55%) still struggling to get rapport with his receivers, no surprise if it is Ainge who fires the winning shots in this latest SEC score-fest.
10 *UTAH over Wyoming
Late Score Forecast:
*UTAH 38 - Wyoming 14
Here we go again. Wyo once more mired in another late-season nosedive similar to fades in both '05 (when Cowboys lost and failed to cover last 6) and '06 (no covers last 4). And see little evidence that cold Wyo (no covers since mid-September) about to change course now, especially with pick-prone QB Sween increasingly reluctant to look downfield, and depth-shy "D" wearing down. Much prefer situation at Utah, as rested Utes (on 5-game win streak) roaring down stretch now that "O" has uncovered a legit infantry diversion in RB Darrell Mack, whose five straight 100+ games have made it a lot harder for opposing defenses to key on nimble QB Brian Johnson. Utah also keen to avenge LY's loss at Laramie, and Pokes further depressed after blowing 21-0 lead at SDSU week ago.
10 RICE over *Smu
Late Score Forecast:
RICE 38 - *Smu 33
Yes, SMU played hard and hung in there at Houston Sunday night for Phil Bennett the weekend after the Mustang head coach had been told he will not be back in 2008. But the SMU defense was still overwhelmed in the end, with the Mustangs losing 38-28. It's the lack of quickness on that platoon and a disappointing running game that have combined to sabotage 1-8 SMU in 2007. While it's true that Rice is also lacking much muscle on the defensive end, new HC David Bailiff now has the Owls' offense back to where it was in 2006, when Rice re-entered the bowl picture for the first time since 1961! And quick QB Chase Clement, who led LY's turnaround until a late-season injury, is back in peak form, as evidenced by his 6 TDP in last week's 28-point fourth-quarter explosion to edge UTEP 56-48 despite 7 Owl turnovers. Elusive WRs Dillard & Armstrong should find openings all day vs. SMU's most vulnerable unit.
TOTALS: UNDER (36½) in the Atlanta-Carolina game--Both of these teams boast 6-2 "under" marks this season. Carolina scored 7 pts. in 3 of last 5, all of which went "under" the total....OVER (40½) in the Buffalo-Miami game--Miami has gone "over" in all 3 home games largely due to the defense allowing 40 ppg in those games.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): PURDUE (-4) vs. Michigan State--MSU collapse against Michigan just one in a string of lateseason stumbles for Spartan team that's just 3-13 vs. number the last 4+ seasons after Nov. 1....BOSTON COLLEGE (-5½) at Maryland--BC takes out frustration of first loss on banged-up Maryland. Hurting Terp OL in for a shock facing active BC DL....NORTH CAROLINA STATE (-3½) vs. North Carolina--The "Tom O'Brien Factor" starting to take effect. Ex-Wolfpack coach Amato's excellent recruiting making NCS resurgence happen quickly....HAWAII(-17) vs. Fresno State--Hawaii 11-5 vs. number after November 1 last 3 years & 10-4 last 14 laying double-digits in Honolulu....CINCINNATI (+4½; est.) at Baltimore--Bengals catch Baltimore coming off primetime Monday nighter, and Bengal WR Chris Henry's return a boost.
posted by phantom
Nov. 6 2007 3:10pm -
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THE GOLDSHEET SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 11
Jacksonville 17 - TENNESSEE 13--Tennessee not scoring many style points these days, especially with Vince Young (just 3 TDP, 8 ints.) enduring something of a sophomore slump. And normally-robust J'ville "D" will need no reminding how Titans battered it into submission (278 YR!) in opener at Alltel Stadium. After facing red-hot Drew Brees (445 YP last week), Jaguars eager for a little revenge vs. less-sophisticated Tennessee offense. Note Titans "under" 6-1-1 thus far.
(07-Tenn. 13-JACK. 10...T.22-13 T.46/278 J.18/72 J.17/30/0/200 T.11/18/1/68 T.0 J.1)
(06-JACK. 37-Tenn. 7...J.17-14 J.30/173 T.32/108 J.12/22/0/169 T.15/36/3/154 J.0 T.0)
(06-TENN. 24-Jack. 17...J.23-5 J.40/202 T.16/41 J.22/37/3/194 T.8/15/0/57 T.0 J.1)
(07-Tenn. +7 13-10; 06-JACK. -9' 37-7, TENN. +3' 24-17...SR: Tennessee 15-11)
KANSAS CITY 27 - Denver 16--Which is more disturbing, Denver's recent performance pattern (which includes the two worst losses in Mike Shanahan's 13-season tenure during the last month), or the fact the stumbling Broncos could actually be tied for first in AFC West at the end this day? However, since Denver has gone the equivalent of a full season with just two covers (2-14 last 16 vs. line), might be minus both Jay Cutler (leg) and Travis Henry (knee; check status), and continues to spring huge leaks defensively, K.C. the preference. Priest Holmes steps in if Larry Johnson (ankle; check status) can't go.
(06-DEN. 9-K.City 6 (OT)...D.18-16 D.36/145 K.34/145 D.16/30/1/173 K.17/23/0/131 D.0 K.2)
(06-K. CITY 19-Den. 10...K.22-16 K.41/223 D.16/38 D.25/39/1/206 K.13/22/1/159 K.0 D.0)
(06-DENVER -10' 9-6 (OT), KANSAS CITY -1' 19-10...SR: Kansas City 52-42)
Buffalo 27 - MIAMI 17--Buffalo (4-4) sneaking into wildcard contention as it continues to overachieve (now 13-4 vs. line last 17 on board!). Moreover, rookie RB Marshawn Lynch (156 YR and 2 TDs last week vs. Cincy) emerging as AFC version of Adrian Peterson, and J.P. Losman more assertive (295 YP last week) after watching Trent Edwards for a few weeks. Meanwhile, Miami's would-be 2007 "triplets" (QB T. Green, RB R. Brown, & WR C. Chambers) are either out or traded, and sources indicate winless HC Cameron close to turning to BYU rookie John Beck at QB. Should the '76 Bucs (0-14) be getting worried?
(06-Buf. 16-MIAMI 6...M.15-12 B.32/105 M.20/92 M.23/32/1/190 B.11/18/0/66 B.0 M.0)
(06-BUF. 21-Miami 0...B.13-12 M.28/112 B.37/100 B.13/19/0/186 M.14/33/2/100 B.2 M.0)
(06-Buffalo +6' 16-6, BUFFALO -1 21-0...SR: Miami 50-35-1)
OVER THE TOTAL PITTSBURGH 28 - Cleveland 26--Pittsburgh enjoyed a 5-takeaway, 6-sack laugher in the first meeting. Charlie Frye started at QB for Cleveland, but reliever Derek Anderson (13 of 28, 1 TD, 1 int.) got plenty of experience vs. the Steelers' zone blitz defense, ranked No. 1 thru Week Eight. And these maturing, more-talented Browns are going for their first four-game win streak since Cleveland was reincarnated in 1999. Even if they don't make it, Browns have the guns (Anderson 17 TDP) to die hard. Cleveland 7-0-1 "over" TY; last 5 in series "over." Pitt "over" 16-3-2 last 21 at home prior to Baltimore game Monday.
(07-Pitt 34-CLE. 7...P.17-13 P.38/202 C.15/40 P.12/23/0/159 C.15/33/1/145 P.1 C.3)
(06-Pitt 24-CLE. 20...P.23-15 C.29/99 P.20/77 P.25/44/3/261 C.17/27/0/203 P.0 C.2)
(06-PITT 27-Cle. 7...P.26-11 P.52/303 C.11/18 C.21/37/1/276 P.11/21/0/225 P.1 C.1)
(07-Pitt -4' 34-7; 06-Pitt -3' 24-20, PITT -7 27-7...SR: Pittsburgh 56-55)
NEW ORLEANS 34 - St. Louis 13--With OL, RB, QB & WR injuries hampering their offense, the 0-8 Rams are -13 in TOs and have been out-scored 131-36 in the second half so far TY. HC Scott Linehan is trying to rally his players by telling them to just imagine they're starting with a clean slate. But with RG Richie Incognito the latest OLman to fall, it will be a tough sell. We'll stick with Saints and sizzling QB Drew Brees (11 TDs, 1 int. last 4 games), who's back in 2006 form.
(05-ST. LOUIS -3 28-17...SR: St. Louis 37-30)
Atlanta 17 - CAROLINA 13--The Panthers are 4-1 on the road TY, but 0-3 at home. What's up with that? And while the limited Falcon offense has yielded 25 sacks, Carolina has racked up only seven, with DE Peppers (only 1½) drawing constant extra attention. Could it be that Joey Harrington (63% despite a score of drops, 4 TDs, 5 ints.) rates a clear edge over David Carr (107 YP, 7 sacks at Tennessee)? Check it out--Falcs have covered 4 of last 5.
(07-Car. 27-ATL. 20...C.24-21 C.36/175 A.19/91 A.31/44/0/351 C.13/22/0/138 C.2 A.0)
(06-Atl. 20-CAR. 6...A.24-15 A.47/252 C.16/65 C.21/39/1/150 A.10/22/0/133 A.0 C.1)
(06-Car. 10-ATL. 6...C.15-8 C.52/183 A.19/83 A.9/20/2/94 C.4/7/0/11 C.0 A.0)
(07-Carolina -4 27-20; 06-Atlanta +5 20-6, Carolina +6 10-3...SR: Atlanta 15-10)
Philadelphia 17 - WASHINGTON 10--The Redskins have swept the Eagles only once (2005) in the last 18 years! And, with the Washington offense generating few big plays and defensive leader S Brian Dawkins back in action for Philly, the Skins, who had 296 YR last week at the lowly Jets, will be hard-pressed to duplicate that trick this week. Eagles' 38-17 Sunday Night Football embarrassment vs. Dallas adds extra motivation. Last 8 in series "under."
(07-Wash. 20-PHIL. 12...W.19-18 W.33/130 P.20/114 P.28/46/0/226 W.16/29/1/207 W.0 P.0)
(06-PHIL. 27-Wash. 3...P.17-15 W.31/146 P.34/145 P.12/26/0/220 W.16/32/1/132 P.0 W.0)
(06-Phil. 21-WASH. 19...W.20-14 W.40/210 P.22/99 W.16/28/2/188 P.15/23/0/164 P.1 W.0)
(07-Wash. +6' 20-12; 06-PHIL. -7 27-3, Phil. -1' 21-19...SR: Washington 76-64-5)
GREEN BAY 23 - Minnesota 20--Can the hard-running Minny offense and its hard-nosed defense overcome its huge QB deficit in this game? Tarvaris Jackson (concussion last week) made his starting debut for the Vikes last December in cold & windy Lambeau field, going 10 of 20 for 50 gross YP; 27 net! But backup Brooks Bollinger (a former Wisconsin Badger) showed it doesn't make much difference who hands off to Adrian Peterson (record 296 YR vs. S.D.; now 1034 for the season). GB 11-1 SU last 12 (9-2-1 vs. spread), but Minny has covered 7 straight at Lambeau.
(07-G. Bay 23-MINN. 16...20-20 M.22/155 G.20/46 G.32/45/0/338 M.21/39/1/227 G.2 M.1)
(06-G. Bay 23-MINN. 17...G.16-14 M.23/90 G.26/47 G.24/42/0/347 M.18/30/1/222 G.0 M.1)
(06-G. BAY 9-Minn. 7...G.19-3 M.22/77 G.24/46 G.26/51/2/273 M.10/20/1/27 G.1 M.0)
(07-G. Bay -1' 23-16; 06-G. Bay +5' 23-17, G. BAY -3' 9-7...SR: Green Bay 47-45-1)
BALTIMORE 24 - Cincinnati 21--Cincy made many of its own breaks in the first meeting TY, collecting six takeaways and harassing Steve McNair into a strained groin, with Kyle Boller finishing the game with an apparent late TDP that was nullified by a dubious offensive interference call. A lot has gone haywire for the Bengals since then (check Chad Johnson injury), but they do regain the services of suspended No. 3 WR Chris Henry, with Carson Palmer saying Henry will make a huge difference with his 4.3 speed and 6-4 height. Ravens own only one cover TY prior to their Monday nighter in Pittsburgh.
(07-CINCY 27-Balt. 20...B.20-13 B.25/107 C.23/55 B.22/40/2/207 C.20/32/0/181 C.2 B.4)
(06-BALT. 26-Cincy 20...B.22-17 B.38/129 C.22/92 B.21/31/0/245 B.12/26/2/183 B.0 C.1)
(06-CINCY 13-Balt. 7...B.15-14 B.20/89 C.23/67 C.21/32/0/227 B.26/43/0/227 C.0 B.1)
(07-CINCY -2' 27-20; 06-BALT. -3 26-20, CINCY -3 13-7...SR: Baltimore 13-10)
Chicago 23 - OAKLAND 13--With G.B. & Detroit sizzling in the NFC North, Chicago will see its playoff chances shrink drastically if it doesn't begin to respond. So look for peak effort vs. declining Oakland, which has lost four straight, scoring 12.5 ppg, and routinely failing to slow opposing ground attacks. That's good news for Bear RB Cedric Benson (466 YR, but only 3.1 ypc), who's giving way more often to backups. Brian Griese (9 TDs, 10 ints.) rates the QB edge in this matchup, and Chicago owns the better receivers. (03-CHI +4 24-21...SR: Oak 6-5)
NY GIANTS 24 - Dallas 20--N.Y. (6 straight wins, 5 covers) is a changed team since its stumbling 0-2 start, which included that wild, 45-35 Game One loss in Dallas. Much credit is being given to new def. coord. Steve Spagnuolo, as the rejuvenated Giant defense (tops with 28 sacks thru Week Eight) is coming from all angles in Spagnuolo's multiple blitzes. And the excellent N.Y. receiving corps of Toomer, Burress & Shockey has so far escaped major injury. Cowboys enjoy no walk in the park as they did last Sunday night in Philly.
(07-DAL. 45-Giants 35...N.22-21 D.30/142 N.22/124 D.15/24/1/336 N.29/44/1/314 D.1 N.0)
(06-Giants 36-DAL. 22...D.21-18 N.39/155 D.21/69 D.21/37/4/310 N.12/26/1/173 N.1 D.0)
(06-Dal. 23-GIANTS 20...N.22-21 N.29/126 D.24/110 N.24/36/0/270 D.20/34/2/255 D.0 N.1)
(07-DALLAS -6 45-35; 06-NY Giants +3' 36-22, Dallas -3' 23-20...SR: Dallas 53-35-2)
ARIZONA 26 - Detroit 13--Must look for the tougher, Ken Whisenhunt Cardinals to rebound after their poor performance last week in Tampa Bay, when Edgerrin James had only 15 YR and the offense managed only 195 yards. Meanwhile, the Detroit defense (30th vs. the pass thru Week Eight) is unlikely to enjoy the 4 takeaways and 5 sacks it accumulated vs. the injured Bronco offense. Arizona has played only three home games so far TY (going 2-1; beating Pitt. & Sea.) and is quite alive in the NFC West with a victory.
(06-ARIZ. 17-Det. 10...A.20-19 A.30/105 D.20/68 A.19/29/0/233 D.23/38/1/213 A.0 D.0)
(06-ARIZONA -2' 17-10...SR: Detroit 31-22-5)
*Indianapolis 28 - SAN DIEGO 20--As rookie Adrian Peterson romped through the S.D. defense last week for a record 296 yards (Vikes rushed for 378 overall), Charger fans must have been thinking there is no way that would have happened if former def. coord. Wade Phillips were still in control of the defense (which helped end Indy's 13-0 start in 1995). And let's not even mention what the faithful have been saying about Norv Turner's 4-4 start. LaDainian Tomlinson had only 40 YR at Minn.; Philip Rivers only 197 YP. Now, they face the super-quick Colt defense, plus an unhappy Peyton Manning on offense. TV--NBC
(05-San Diego +7 26-17...SR: San Diego 13-9)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 12
*SEATTLE 26 - San Francisco 10--Hard times for S.F., whose minimal offense was shredded six weeks ago by the Seattle defense, which collected 6 sacks, 3 takeaways, and knocked QB Alex Smith from the game with a shoulder separation. Moreover, 49er RB Frank Gore (ankle injury; DNP last week) has been hemmed in most of the season. Seahawks (WR D.J. Hackett returned last week; WR Engram 14 recs. at Cleveland) much more competent on offense. Niners 1-5 vs. spread last 6 games; all as dog. CABLE TV--ESPN
(07-Sea. 23-S. FRAN. 3...Se.17-9 Sf.19/109 Se.37/93 Se.23/32/1/278 Sf.12/34/2/75 Se.0 Sf.1)
(06-S. FRAN. 20-Sea. 14...Sf.18-15 Sf.34/262 Se.21/70 Se.19/31/3/233 Sf.19/25/0/154 Sf.1 Se.2)
(06-S. Fran. 24-SEA. 14...Se.22-15 Sf.38/228 Se.27/90 Se.20/37/2/210 Sf.14/25/0/162 Sf.0 Se.0)
(07-Seattle -2 23-3; 06-SAN FRAN. +3' 20-14, San Fran. +10 24-14...SR: Seattle 9-8)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
San Francisco and Seattle on Monday Night
San Francisco is 16-13 straight-up and 19-10 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
20-10 straight-up and 19-8-3 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Seattle is 11-5 straight-up and 11-4-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
4-3 straight-up and 4-3 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2007 Reg. Seas.: Seattle -2 beat San Francisco 23-3 at San Francisco
2006 Reg. Seas.: San Francisco +10 beat Seattle 24-14 at Seattle
2006 Reg. Seas.: San Francisco +3½ beat Seattle 20-14 at San Francisco
NFL KEY RELEASES
PHILADELPHIA by 7 over Washington
ARIZONA by 13 over Detroit
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the Cleveland-Pittsburgh game
NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona 9 3 3-5 4-3-1 4-4 20-22 2-1 18-20 2-2 21-23
Atlanta 10 1 2-6 5-3 2-6 14-21 2-2 19-23 3-1 10-20
Baltimore 8 2 4-3 1-6 2-3 18-17 1-2 23-13 0-4 14-20
Buffalo+ 8 3 4-4 6-2 3-5 16-20 5-0 21-18 1-2 8-22
Carolina 9 2 4-4 4-4 2-6 17-20 0-3 12-28 4-1 20-15
Chicago 9 2 3-5 2-6 4-4 18-23 0-4 17-24 2-2 19-22
Cincinnati 11 2 2-6 3-5 5-3 25-31 2-2 23-27 1-3 27-34
Cleveland 8 3 5-3 6-2 7-0 28-29 4-1 32-31 2-1 23-27
Dallas 0 3 7-1 6-2 6-2 33-22 3-1 33-26 3-1 34-18
Denver- 8 2 3-5 1-7 6-2 16-28 1-4 17-26 0-3 14-32
Detroit+ 7 4 6-2 5-2-1 4-4 25-23 3-0 31-17 2-2 19-30
Green Bay+ 5 3 7-1 6-1-1 5-3 24-18 2-1 21-20 4-0 28-16
Houston 10 2 4-5 4-5 5-3 23-25 2-2 26-23 2-3 20-27
Indianapolis -3 3 7-1 6-2 3-5 31-16 4-0 33-17 2-2 28-15
Jacksonville- 6 3 5-3 4-4 4-4 19-19 1-3 17-17 3-1 22-21
Kansas City 9 3 4-4 4-3-1 3-5 16-18 1-2 17-20 3-1 14-17
Miami 13 2 0-8 2-4-2 5-3 21-31 0-3 22-40 1-1 23-28
Minnesota 10 3 3-5 3-3-2 4-4 21-19 2-2 23-17 1-1 19-22
New England -9 5 9-0 8-1 7-2 39-16 4-0 41-11 4-1 39-20
New Orleans 4 3 4-4 3-5 4-3 22-23 1-3 23-22 2-2 21-25
NY Giants 4 3 6-2 5-3 4-3 25-20 3-1 24-19 2-1 30-24
NY Jets 13 2 1-8 2-6-1 5-3 18-25 1-3 15-24 1-3 21-28
Oakland 12 2 2-6 3-5 4-4 19-22 0-4 19-24 3-1 20-20
Philadelphia 7 3 3-5 3-5 3-5 20-19 1-3 25-25 2-2 14-14
Pittsburgh 3 4 5-2 5-2 3-4 26-13 3-0 28-6 2-2 25-18
St. Louis 15 2 0-8 1-7 2-6 12-27 1-3 20-26 0-4 5-29
San Diego 4 4 4-4 4-4 5-2 24-21 3-1 23-14 1-3 24-27
San Francisco 13 1 2-6 2-5-1 3-5 13-23 1-2 10-20 1-3 16-27
Seattle 8 4 4-4 3-5 3-5 21-18 2-2 24-15 1-3 18-20
Tampa Bay 7 4 5-4 4-4-1 3-6 18-16 3-1 22-12 1-3 14-21
Tennessee 5 2 6-2 5-2-1 1-6 21-16 2-2 18-13 3-0 23-18
Washington 9 3 5-3 2-4-2 3-4 19-20 1-2 22-15 1-2 16-25
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “Oâ€â€”Offense. “Dâ€â€”Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions. ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years. TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 8
*WEST VIRGINIA 42 - Louisville 20--Visiting Cardinals need 1 more win to be bowl eligible, and notching that victory at expense of rival WV would be doubly satisfying. Easier said than done against Mountaineer squad that is still lurking around BCS title picture, however. Speedy duo of QB White & RB Slaton will strike early & often vs. poor-tackling Louisville stop unit. And improved WV pass defense (11 ints., only 7 TDP) better equipped to deal with dangerous Card sr. QB Brohm TY. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-LVL. 44-W. Va. 34...W.24-22 W.50/318 L.32/114 L.19/26/0/354 W.13/21/0/222 L.1 W.3)
(06-LOUISVILLE -1' 44-34 05-WEST VIRGINIA +7 46-44 (OT)...SR: West Virginia 6-2)
*BYU 24 - Tcu 20--It's almost as hard to beat BYU in Provo (where it's won 10 straight) as it is to find Coca-Cola Classic at LaVell Edwards Stadium's concession stands. But it's also difficult to extend margins vs. TCU, especially with "D" in ornery mood once more now that DE Blake has returned to lineup, and Frogs jumping again after last week's romp past New Mexico. Another controlled effort by RS frosh QB Dalton (2 TDP vs. Lobos) should keep TCU close.
(06-Byu 31-TCU 17...T.29-20 T.32/141 B.34/72 B.23/37/0/321 T.26/50/1/296 B.1 T.1)
(06-Byu +5' 31-17 05-Tcu +3' 51-50 (OT)...SR: BYU 4-2)
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 9
*EASTERN MICHIGAN 38 - Bowling Green 36--EMU welcomed back QB Andy Schmitt against Toledo, and while EMU doesn't play much defense (29 ppg), neither does BG (33 ppg). Falcon frosh RB Willie Geter (7.3 ypc) & WR Corey Partridge (45 catches) sat out Akron game with injuries and might not be 100%, and BG just 1-13-1 last 15 laying points. CABLE TV--ESPNU
(06-B. GREEN 24-E. Mich. 21...E.18-17 B.42/159 E.26/82 E.25/39/3/248 B.14/24/0/165 B.1 E.0)
(06-BGU -10' 24-21 04-BGU -30 41-20...SR: Bowling Green 22-10-1)
*Rutgers 37 - ARMY 12--This is a bad matchup in two ways for Army. First, quick, athletic Rutgers' defensive front seven will give HC Stan Brock's 117th-ranked offense extreme problems. On other side of ball, Army has one of the worst run defenses in the country and won't slow down Scarlet Knight RB Ray Rice (140 ypg). With Rutgers off back-to-back losses and in a foul mood, you have the makings of a blowout. TV--ESPN2 (DNP...SR: Army 18-15)
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 10
NORTHWESTERN 33 - Indiana 24--In the race for bowl eligibility, this game is a must-win for Northwestern. While 6-4 Indiana's 38-20 win against Ball State last week put Hoosiers into the bowl pool, Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats have to view this game as their best chance for a 6th win. Bacher's bad luck with tipped interceptions continued last week, but Hoosier defense doesn't force nearly as many TOs as NW's last two foes, Iowa & Purdue. (04-N'WESTERN -11 31-24 (OT)...SR: Northwestern 41-33-1)
PURDUE 30 - Michigan St. 20--After blowing 10-pt., 4th-Q lead to archrival Michigan, tough to see slumping MSU scraping itself off the floor for a positive effort against solid Purdue. Prolific Boiler QB Painter has engineered home wins in 5 of 6 this season, losing only to Ohio St., with all victories by at least 14 points. Spartans have made a habit of late-season fades, logging a 4-14 spread mark in last 4 games of season since '03.
(06-Purdue 17-MICH. ST. 15...19-19 M.35/144 P.27/77 P.21/30/0/286 M.16/29/1/161 P.2 M.1)
(06-Purdue +2' 17-15 05-PURDUE +4' 28-21...SR: EVEN 28-28-3)
Virginia 20 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 19--Expect plenty of former Hurricane luminaries to be in attendance, as this is final game at storied Orange Bowl for Miami. Still, have no interest in laying points with host, which is just 11-23 as home chalk since 2002. Virginia's last 5 games have been decided by a total of only 10 points. Can cardiac Cavs, who've won 3 of last 4 (each by a single point!), pull out another nailbiter?
(06-VA. 17-Miami 7...V.21-11 V.42/132 M.29/111 V.23/33/0/217 M.11/18/1/152 V.0 M.1)
(06-VA. +3 17-7 05-MIAMI -17' 25-17 04-Miami +3' 31-21...SR: Miami-Florida 3-1)
Wake Forest 28 - CLEMSON 26--Offensive firepower edge to Clemson, as composed jr. QB Harper (23 TDP, just 4 ints.) making foes pay for keying on RBs J. Davis & Spiller. But Wake has superior special teams and an opportunistic defense that's snagged 25 takeaways. Resourceful soph QB Skinner & clever o.c. Lobotzke find enough openings to keep visiting Deacons (14-5-1 last 20 as dog) in hunt for full 60 minutes.
(06-Clem. 27-W. FOR. 17...C.23-15 C.39/214 W.31/31 C.20/30/3/214 W.19/24/1/188 C.1 W.3)
(06-Clem. -16 27-17 05-WFU +6' 31-27 04-CLEM. -11' 37-30 (OT)...SR: Clemson 55-16-1)
Penn State 37 - TEMPLE 9--Temple HC Al Golden has made progress this season, but this is the toughest game on the schedule for the Owls, and they have been handled easily by far lesser foes this season. Penn State HC Paterno didn't pull any punches vs. Owls last season, as Temple only managed 2 FDs in 47-0 shellacking (that was with now-injured QB DiMichele).
(06-PENN ST. 47-Temple 0...P.19-2 P.33/212 T.29/16 P.17/30/1/199 T.8/19/1/58 P.0 T.2)
(06-PENN STATE -36' 47-0...SR: Penn State 32-3-1)
Georgia Tech 33 - DUKE 14--Conflicting trends, as Tech has failed to cover last 6 as favorite, while Duke is only 3-13 last 16 as home dog. Beleaguered Ramblin' Wreck HC Gailey needs 1 more win to be bowl eligible. Even if star RB Choice (knee) unable to make post, Tech has HUGE rush & defensive edges in this matchup. Fading Devils own nation's least productive ground attack (only 56 ypg).
(06-GA. TECH 49-Duke 21...G.20-15 G.42/214 D.26/41 G.13/25/2/248 D.19/33/2/237 G.0 D.2)
(06-TECH -25 49-21 05-Tech -20' 35-10 04-TECH -18 24-7...SR: Georgia Tech 43-30-1)
South Florida 30 - SYRACUSE 19--Was South Florida really ranked No. 2 in nation less than a month ago? Overburdened QB Grothe should make enough plays to help Bulls snap 3-game losing streak. But, with jr. QB Cameron Dantley sparking Syracuse attack off bench last week, no big surprise if Orange manage to hang inside spread.
(06-S. FLA. 27-Syr. 10...Sf.23-18 Sf.40/150 Sy.39/76 Sf.25/35/1/364 Sy.15/32/1/174 Sf.2 Sy.2)
(06-USF -10 27-10 05-Usf -7' 27-0...SR: South Florida 2-0)
Kentucky 34 - VANDERBILT 24--Since refreshed UK (off needed bye week) still alive in wide-open SEC East, prefer to lay small number vs. Vandy, whose defense harboring self-doubts following 49-22 shellacking at "The Swamp." Doubt Commodores containable offense (just 22 ppg) keeps pace with explosive Cat attack (39 ppg), fortified with expected return of previously-injured RB R Little. UK's NFL-caliber QB Woodson (490 YP, 4 TDP in '06 meeting) licking his chops, so Cats cover their 6th in last 7 meetings.
(06-KY. 38-Vandy 26...V.27-26 V.30/175 K.37/147 K.29/43/0/450 V.23/37/2/446 K.1 V.2)
(06-KY. -2 38-26 05-Ky. +11' 48-43 04-KY. +3 14-13...SR: Kentucky 38-37-4)
Connecticut 21 - CINCINNATI 19--Aided by eight giveaways by host South Florida, Bearcats were able to hang on for win at Tampa last week. Can't count on such generosity from careful 8-1 UConn, which has turned over ball only 10 times all season. Hard-driving HC Edsall's Huskies (6 straight covers) mush their way to another victory on strength of productive rushing attack and underrated defense (only 14 ppg--3rd in nation).
(06-Cincy 26-CONN. 23...Ci.22-15 Ci.41/151 Co.31/123 Ci.20/34/1/291 Co.13/24/0/172 Ci.0 Co.0)
(06-Cincy -4' 26-23 05-CINCY +7' 28-17...SR: Cincinnati 3-0)
Colorado 22 - IOWA STATE 20--Cyclones finally got their share of breaks last week (K-State fumbled opening kickoff) for 31-20 victory, ending 6-game losing streak. RS frosh RB Alexander Robinson continued to balance ISU's mostly "chip-away" offense. CU has been the more effective, consistent team most of 2007, with last week's 55-10 loss to Mizzou uncharacteristic of its overall play, but Buffs in shaky road favorite's role.
(06-COLO. 33-Iowa St. 16...I.19-18 C.38/263 I.30/102 I.18/29/0/209 C.13/19/0/200 C.0 I.0)
(06-COLO. -8' 33-16 05-ISU +2 30-16 04-COLO. -10' 19-14...SR: Colorado 47-13-1)
Air Force 29 - NOTRE DAME 16--As long as ND continues to plumb uncharted depths of ineptitude, reluctant to pick spot where Irish find safe haven. And if anything, matchup vs. AFA even more troubling than last week's vs. Navy, as veteran, blitz-happy Falcon "D" has impeded a lot better offenses than Charlie Weis' wheezing attack. Meanwhile, AFA's hybrid WR/RB Hall (another 275 YR last week!) piling up more stats than all of ND's weapons combined. TV--NBC
(06-N. Dame 39-A. FORCE 17...A.24-19 A.60/200 N.27/176 N.14/19/0/207 A.14/19/0/205 N.0 A.0)
(06-Notre Dame -11 39-17...SR: Notre Dame 22-5)
NEW MEXICO 29 - Colorado State 13--Normally, we'd be tempted to respect series history (dog team has covered last 7) between these two. But to do so this season would require faith in CSU bunch that is routinely losing touch and barely competing most weeks for Sonny Lubick (expected to announce retirement soon). UNM ought to get infantry going after being stonewalled at TCU, and 6-3 Lobos could use another win for bowl prospects.
(06-N. Mex. 20-COLO. ST. 19...C.17-15 N.31/79 C.26/37 C.25/40/1/254 N.15/25/0/195 N.1 C.0)
(06-Unm +6' 20-19 05-Csu +5' 35-25 04-Unm +2 26-17...SR: Colorado St. 31-23)
Houston 42 - TULSA 36--Key clash between frontrunners in West Division of C-USA. Both teams hard-pressed to get many stops, and nifty Tulsa sr. QB Paul Smith (3183 YP & 27 TDP!) will do plenty of damage. But have a little more faith in Houston's defense. And Cougar QBs Keenum & Joseph enjoy better rush supporting with mercurial sr. RB Alridge (24 TDs, 2176 YR on 8 ypc last 1+ seasons).
(06-HOU. 27-Tulsa 10...H.18-15 H.38/227 T.24/113 H.16/21/0/244 T.16/34/1/136 H.1 T.1)
(06-HOUSTON +3 27-10 05-Houston +3 30-23...SR: Houston 17-15)
Rice 35 - SMU 33--Can disappointed SMU finish strong for lame-duck HC Bennett? Wouldn't count on it. Rice got confidence boost last week, overcoming 7 giveaways and scoring 28 unanswered points in last 12 minutes to upend UTEP. Owl QB Clement (12 TDP & 4 TDR in last 3 games!) has superior supporting cast, and Mustang defense not much better than Rice's shaky stop unit.
(06-RICE 31-Smu 27...R.15-11 S.38/140 R.42/78 R.13/21/2/205 S.8/19/2/137 R.1 S.2)
(06-RICE P 31-27 05-SMU -7' 27-7 04-RICE -13' 44-10...SR: SMU 44-38-1)
Boise State 45 - UTAH STATE 14--Acknowledge USU's knack of slipping inside back door lately (Utags have covered 4 of last 5), but Boise has routinely kept that shut in recent meetings, covering last 7. And percolating Broncos (46 ppg in regulation time their last 5) equipped to extend margin these days with hungry backups like frosh RB Avery (6.6 ypc and 9 TDs) getting their chances in late going.
(06-BOISE ST. 49-Utah St. 10...B.24-7 B.41/231 U.30/90 B.25/27/0/257 U.9/19/1/98 B.2 U.0)
(06-BOISE ST. -38 49-10 05-Boise St. -19 45-21...SR: Boise State 9-4)
UTAH 31 - Wyoming 13--With these MWC ships continuing to head in opposite directions after passing one another in the night a few weeks back, compelled to back hot Utah. Wyo (only one cover since opener) sure not inspiring much confidence lately, especially after blowing 21-0 lead at SDSU, as QB Sween reluctant to look downfield. Meanwhile, Utes rolling as rampaging RB Mack (5 straight 100+ YR) providing punishing ground diversion for QB B. Johnson.
(06-WYO. 31-Utah 15...W.17-8 W.44/100 U.29/33 W.17/24/0/202 U.16/31/2/111 W.2 U.2)
(06-WYO. +3' 31-15 05-UTAH -3 43-13 04-Utah -23 45-28...SR: Utah 47-32-1)
Arizona State 27 - UCLA 18--Given UCLA's bipolar performance pattern, would not be terribly surprised at a circle-the-wagons effort from Bruins, especially at Rose Bowl where they've covered 17 of last 22 tries. But with Karl Dorrell perhaps having to turn to his 4th QB of season (soph Rasshan, who was playing WR a few weeks ago), not sure UCLA bounces back. Lots more weapons at ASU QB Carpenter's disposal, and Sun Devils still in BCS mix despite loss at Oregon.
(06-Ucla 24-ARIZ. ST. 12...A.14-13 A.37/115 U.30/87 U.14/24/0/187 A.11/30/1/149 U.0 A.0)
(06-Ucla +5 24-12 05-UCLA -3' 45-35 04-ASU -7' 48-42...SR: UCLA 15-7-1)
MISSISSIPPI STATE 23 - Alabama 21--With Bama off highly-draining, come-from-ahead 41-34 loss in "Saban Bowl," will take price with rested MSU, needing one more victory to become bowl eligible for 1st time since 2000. Bulldogs poised frosh QB Carroll (no ints. in 137 attempts!) effectively managing run-oriented attack, while Tide counterpart J. P. Wilson still prone to critical mistakes. This battle is huge deal for MSU's respected mentor Croom (see Looking for an Angle), who'll have his defensively-stout squad (held Kentucky to season-low 14; red zone "D" 3rd in SEC) primed to spring 2nd straight upset in series.
(06-Miss. St. 24-ALA. 16...A.17-13 M.38/131 A.26/101 A.19/39/2/187 M.9/23/1/143 M.1 A.0)
(06-Msu +14' 24-16 05-Ala. -16 17-0 04-ALA. -17 30-14...SR: Alabama 71-17-3)
TENNESSEE 31 - Arkansas 26--Although Arkansas' formidable ground assault overwhelmed South Carolina in impressive 48-36 victory in Fayetteville, still recommend SEC East contender UT, which hasn't lost vs. Hogs in Knoxville since '92. Vols well-protected sr. QB Ainge (65%, 15 TDs, 5 ints., only sacked thrice) runs better balanced attack than Ark. counterpart Dick (just 157 ypg passing; 11th in SEC), who won't easily loosen up a stacked UT defensive front with vertical passes. Favor payback minded Vols.
(06-ARK. 31-Tenn. 14...T.19-18 A.45/259 T.29/92 T.16/34/1/174 A.11/16/0/166 A.1 T.0)
(06-ARKANSAS -5' 31-14...SR: Tennessee 12-3)
Auburn 30 - GEORGIA 20--Since defensively-stingy Auburn (SEC-best 14.5 ppg) totally undaunted by hostile SEC venues (Tigers 12-2 SU last 14 on conf. trail), must take any points vs. UGA squad that's permitted 30 or more in 3 of past 4 outings. Fierce Auburn stop unit knows how to contain mobile SEC QBs like Dawgs dual threat Stafford. Anticipate solid effort from Tiger QB Cox (season-high 4 ints. LY), who was laboring with painful leg injuries vs. UGA year ago.
(06-Ga. 37-AUB. 15...G.20-9 G.46/227 A.25/136 G.14/20/0/219 A.4/12/4/35 G.3 A.0)
(06-Ga. +12 37-15 05-Aub. +3 31-30 04-AUB. -3' 24-6...SR: Auburn 53-49-8)
WASHINGTON STATE 20 - Stanford 18--Wazzu showing a little spunk in recent weeks, especially with "D" adjusting positively to new 3-4 alignment. But points still surprisingly hard to come by for Cougs (just 18 ppg last 6), and Bill Doba teams notoriously unreliable as Palouse chalk (2-8 last 10 in role). Remember, Stanford has won 2 of last 3 on Pac-10 road, and Jim Harbaugh confident that sr. QB Ostrander can run "O" if RS soph Pritchard can't start.
(06-Wash. St. 36-STAN. 10...W.28-11 W.49/240 S.31/28 W.21/33/0/228 S.15/25/1/167 W.3 S.1)
(06-Wsu -10 36-10 05-Stan. +14 24-21 04-Stan. +1' 23-17...SR: Stanford 32-24-1)
Kansas State 41 - NEBRASKA 25--Cornhuskers have produced 7 eye-opening, negative defensive performances their last 8 games (Iowa State being the only exception). So, even though humiliated NU might have the desire to rebound this week, Huskers too fragile at this stage. Without a pass rush (NU only 10 sacks TY!), big K-State QB Freeman is likely to deal all day to WR deluxe Jordy Nelson (89 recs., 2 PR TDs). Huskers 1-8 vs. spread last 9 games.
(06-Neb. 21-KAN. ST. 3...K.17-16 N.43/190 K.18/22 K.23/47/2/272 N.13/22/0/166 N.0 K.0)
(06-Neb. -9 21-3 05-NEB. -6 27-25 04-KSU -5 45-21...SR: Nebraska 74-15-2)
IOWA 34 - Minnesota 13--Once-struggling Iowa could become bowl eligible by reclaiming Floyd of Rosedale trophy with a win against the Gophers. It's clear HC Brewster has no answers for youthful Minny defense, which ranks last in the nation. Meanwhile, Hawkeye HC Ferentz has patched his OL, 6-3 WR Trey Stross has regained full health (91 yds. rec. & a TD vs. NW) and RBs Young & Sims have combined for 129 ypg rushing in last 3 games. Iowa "D" holding foes to 18 ppg.
(06-MINN. 34-Iowa 24...I.26-23 M.42/192 I.36/182 I.27/38/4/364 M.18/30/1/267 M.0 I.1)
(06-MINN. -2' 34-24 05-IOWA -5 52-28 04-Iowa +4 29-27...SR: Minnesota 59-39-2)
MISSOURI 43 - Texas A&M 17--Mizzou's spread (Chase Daniel 23 TDP) working much better than A&M's option attack, which has been mostly held in check by the better defenses it has faced. And catch-up is not the Aggies' forte. But that's likely to be their mode in Columbia, where the Tigers are 9-2-1 last 12 vs. the spread. RS frosh do-everything WR Jeremy Maclin gives MU speed that Aggies cannot match. A&M defense only 10 sacks TY.
(06-TEX. A&M 25-Mo. 19...T.23-20 T.51/180 M.26/74 M.22/31/0/306 T.20/24/0/223 T.0 M.3)
(06-TEXAS A&M +1' 25-19...SR: Texas A&M 7-2)
WISCONSIN 24 - Michigan 21--Must give Wisconsin credit for Ohio State effort. Badgers led the Buckeyes 17-10 with 18 mins. left and played without RB P.J. Hill. Whether Hill's thigh is healed this week isn't crucial, as fresh, productive backup Lance Smith-Williams will be available (he only plays at home). And key Wolverines still nicked up, as QB Chad Henne left MSU game and star RB Mike Hart limped off again vs. Spartans (although both returned).
(06-MICH. 27-Wis. 13...M.16-14 M.39/111 W.27/12 W.22/43/0/236 M.18/25/3/211 M.0 W.1)
(06-MICHIGAN -14 27-13 05-WISCONSIN +3 23-20...SR: Michigan 48-11-1)
OHIO STATE 39 - Illinois 16--HC Jim Tressel should have no trouble getting the Buckeyes focused for Illinois. OSU hung on for a 17-10 win last year, as Illini outgained Tressel's crew. With a berth in the BCS Championship just two wins away, Buckeyes won't be looking ahead to Michigan. No. 1 Ohio State getting better each week, as RB Chris Wells has 523 YR in last 3 games and jr. WRs Robiskie (44 catches, 10 TDs) and Hartline (41 recs., 5 TDs) are a potent tandem. Buckeyes (held Wisc. to 12 YR) have the "D" to deal with run-oriented Illini offense.
(06-Ohio St. 17-ILL. 10...O.17-13 O.47/116 I.22/99 I.14/35/1/134 O.13/23/1/108 O.1 I.1)
(06-Ohio St. -25 17-10 05-OHIO ST. -35 40-2...SR: Ohio State 60-29-4)
VIRGINIA TECH 21 - Florida State 13--Can't sell Florida State short, as Bobby Bowden's proud troops have covered 7 of last 8 as dog. But with spread dipping following Seminoles' upset win at Boston College, compelled to lay reasonable price with Virginia Tech. Hokie jr. QB Glennon (67%, 5 TDP, no ints. last 3 games) throwing with more confidence since regaining starting job. And tenacious Tech defense has held 21 of last 23 visitors at raucous Lane Stadium to 14 points or fewer.
(05-Florida State +14 27-22 at Jacksonville...SR: Florida State 21-10-1)
SAN JOSE ST. 28 - New Mexico St. 27--Without a credible infantry diversion (115th rushing) and boasting a kicking game that might prompt a visit from Mike Wallace (missed last 10 FG tries!), can't lay points with troubled SJSU. Hal Mumme's NMSU Air Raid back on bombing runs once more now that QB Holbrook (400 YP+ in last two) has returned to lineup.
(06-Sjs 31-N. MEX. ST. 21...S.22-21 S.50/256 N.25/65 N.34/49/0/364 S.9/16/0/105 S.1 N.1)
(06-Sjs -6 31-21 05-SJS -7' 27-10...SR: San Jose State 12-2)
Kent State 26 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 25--Kent RB Jarvis (1259 YR) should have some fun with decimated Northern defensive front. But this is the first road start for Golden Flash true frosh QB Giorgio Morgan (18 of 28 in starting debut two weeks ago). And Huskies' J. Anderson (998 YR) eager for a shot at still-vulnerable Kent defense.
(05-Northern Illinois -10' 34-3...SR: Northern Illinois 13-7)
*East Carolina 42 - MARSHALL 23--Go-with vs. go-against. Crafty ECU HC Skip Holtz is 14-3 vs. spread as visitor since 2005, while Marshall has covered just 6 of last 21 on board. How will faltering Thundering Herd keep burgeoning Pirates (46 ppg vs. last 5 C-USA foes!) in check? They won't.
(06-E. CAR. 33-Mar. 20...E.20-17 E.40/74 M.14/35 E.23/31/0/310 M.25/46/1/305 E.2 M.2)
(06-EAST CAROLINA -7 33-20 05-East Carolina +5' 34-29...SR: East Carolina 6-2)
SOUTHERN MISS 41 - Memphis 20--Cocksure sr. QB Hankins (9 TDP last 3 games) a major threat for Memphis. But Southern Miss holds almost all the other cards, including soph RB Fletcher (2378 YR & 21 TDs on 5.2 ypc last 1+ seasons) and a MUCH stouter defense. Eagles continue recent series domination, which has seen them cover 13 of previous 15 meetings!
(06-S. Miss 42-MEMP. 21...S.23-17 S.40/254 M.32/158 S.15/25/0/232 M.12/34/0/151 S.0 M.0)
(06-Usm -7 42-21 05-Memp. +7 24-22 04-MEMP. -6 30-26...SR: Southern Miss 37-19-1)
*Boston College 23 - MARYLAND 10--Debilitating series of OL injuries has sapped the puissance from Maryland's attack, as Terps haven't tallied more than 17 points in losing 3 straight games. BC bummed after home loss to Fla. State sent it tumbling down rankings. However, Eagle defense (permitting just 58 ypg rushing--tops in nation) will stuff UM RBs Lattimore & Ball, giving savvy sr. QB Ryan (5 ints. last 2 games) enough opportunities to get visitor back in win column.
(06-BOS. COL. 38-Mary. 16...22-22 B.30/124 M.29/73 M.28/43/2/258 B.19/29/0/249 B.0 M.2)
(06-BOSTON COL. -7' 38-16 05-Boston Col. -2 31-16...SR: Boston College 3-1)
*TEXAS 41 - Texas Tech 27--TT has a new weapon in true frosh RB Aaron Crawford (3 TDR, 44 YR, 10 recs. last week at Baylor). But Red Raiders (only 7-13 vs. spread last 20 as visitor) tend to struggle vs. quality foes on the road. With RB Jamaal Charles (470 YR last two games!) balancing Longhorn offense, shaky TT defense faces major challenge keeping pace, even with UT QB Colt McCoy (16 ints. TY, but 106 YR last week) erratic TY.
(06-Texas 35-TEX. TECH 31...U.29-27 U.44/227 TT.13/M1 TT.42/62/1/519 U.21/31/1/256 U.3 TT.1)
(06-Texas -10' 35-31 05-TEXAS -16 52-17 04-Texas +1 51-21...SR: Texas 42-14)
*OKLAHOMA 52 - Baylor 6--This appears to be "men against boys," especially with Baylor leading the nation in giveaways with 33 and struggling as an underdog (1-10 last 11 as Big XII dog). OU has the offensive depth and skill to increase the margin, plus BCS rankings motivation.
(06-Okla. 36-BAY. 10...O.17-11 O.41/236 B.20/M48 B.22/45/2/188 O.12/19/1/178 O.4 B.0)
(06-Okla. -20' 36-10 05-OKLA. -14' 37-30 (OT) 04-Okla. -36' 35-0...SR: Oklahoma 16-0)
*NORTH CAROLINA STATE 24 - North Carolina 13--Jelling Wolfpack has strung together 3 straight wins for tough-minded new mentor Tom O'Brien. Meanwhile, young Tar Heels' offensive production declining lately, as unbalanced Carolina attack has mustered 16 points or fewer in 5 of last 6 games. Combo of resurgent jr. QB Evans & emerging soph RB Eugene enough for State to snap vexing 3-game losing streak to bitter rival.
(06-N. CAR. 23-N. Car. St. 9...S.21-17 U.41/123 S.27/80 S.22/41/3/261 U.8/15/0/137 U.1 S.1)
(06-UNC +3' 23-9 05-Unc +11 31-24 04-UNC +10' 30-24...SR: North Carolina 63-27-6)
*Kansas 41 - OKLAHOMA STATE 31--OSU has the firepower to challenge good teams, but defense (37 ppg vs. quality foes; blew 21-point, 4th-Q lead vs. Texas) leaves much to be desired. And KU's superbly-balanced spread offense (46 ppg) is destroying virtually all 2007 foes for first 9-0 Jayhawk start since 1908 (8-0 TY vs. the number)! Huge coach Mangino doing a "huge" job, but must be somewhat mindful of Cowboys' 35-ppg offense.
(06-Okla. St. 42-KAN. 32...O.27-18 O.43/192 K.35/178 O.23/35/1/411 K.15/27/1/187 O.3 K.1)
(06-Oklahoma State +2' 42-32...SR: EVEN 28-28-3)
*Utep 38 - TULANE 34--In contest pitting two former Pac-10 coaches sans much defense, slightly lean to UTEP squad that possesses more quick-strike ability (37 ppg) with ever-improving triggerman Vittatoe (leads C-USA in pass efficiency) than Tulane's Forte-led ground assault. Minor-bowl seeking Miners have beaten better foes (New Mexico & Tulsa), while Green Wave has only knocked off SE Lousiaina & 1-8 SMU in OT.
(06-UTEP 34-Tulane 20...T.31-18 T.25/186 U.36/135 T.32/55/2/295 U.24/33/0/230 U.0 T.3)
(06-UTEP -13 34-20 05-Utep -7 45-21 at Ruston, LA...SR: UTEP 2-0)
*SOUTH CAROLINA 27 - Florida 26--With expected inflation following disparate results, will take South Carolina, which matches up fundamentally better with Florida than it did vs. Arkansas. Gators speedy WR Harvin continues to be No. 1 weapon, especially with bullish QB Tebow limiting his thrusts due to injured shoulder. But UF will convert a minimum of downfield plays vs. tight-covering 'Cock 2ndary (leads SEC in pass defense). Meanwhile, "Darth Visor" has arsenal to burn young, vulnerable, nicked-up UF defense that's yielded 35 ppg last 3 away from "The Swamp".
(06-FLA. 17-S. Car. 16...F.28-23 F.32/147 S.28/135 S.24/34/0/275 F.19/29/1/254 F.0 S.0)
(06-FLA. -13 17-16 05-USC +4 30-22 04-FLA. -7 48-14...SR: Florida 20-4-3)
*Ucf 45 - UAB 16--With surging UCF gunning for a better bowl with a realistic 9-3 finish, compelled to lay it vs. banged-up, still-maturing UAB squad that has been outscored 85-16 by halftime in last 3 one-sided losses. Knights scintillating RB. K. Smith (1448 YR), who missed LY's game due to injury, more than makes up for it in this blowout in Birmingham.
(06-UCF 31-Uab 22...A.25-23 C.38/205 A.27/89 A.25/41/0/289 C.20/25/1/278 C.1 A.0)
(06-UCF -3 31-22 05-Ucf +7' 27-21...SR: UCF 4-0)
*LSU 48 - Louisiana Tech 7--With supremely-motivated 8-1 LSU able to taste a possible BCS championship game, don't expect much letdown in this non-conference game vs overmatched WAC foe La Tech. Tigers punishing, now-healthy attack scores early and often vs. Bulldog defense that has permitted 43 ppg vs. the 3 quality offenses it has faced TY. (DNP...SR: LSU 16-1)
*CALIFORNIA 24 - Southern Cal 23--No, Cal QB Longshore hasn't looked quite the same since injuring ankle five weeks ago. But Bears still have plenty of complementary weapons to slow aggressive SC defensive pressure much better than Yvenson Bernard-less Oregon State did last week. Besides, Trojan "O" still lacking reliable wideouts (lots of drops vs. Beavers) who could help now-healthy QB Booty go downfield with more consistency. Pete Carroll's overvalued bunch just 2-8 vs. line last 10 on Pac-10 road. TV--ABC
(06-USC 23-Cal. 9...S.19-14 S.31/120 C.26/99 S.18/31/0/238 C.17/38/2/176 S.0 C.1)
(06-USC -5' 23-9 05-Usc -18' 35-10 04-USC -7' 23-17...SR: Southern Cal 59-30-5)
*OREGON STATE 22 - Washington 20--Normally, fundamental edge might be conceded to OSU and stout Beaver rush "D" that ranks 2nd nationally while allowing mere 60 ypg, especially since U-Dub "O" about as balanced as Fox News. But unorthodox UW spread option and QB Locker's Tim Tebow-like running ability a potentially awkward assignment for hosts. OSU "O" not the same if RB Bernard not in lineup to provide diversion for QB Canfield.
(06-Osu 27-WAS. 17...O.18-15 O.39/180 W.37/84 O.14/21/2/308 W.14/30/0/172 O.1 W.0)
(06-Osu +9 27-17 05-Osu -3 18-10 04-Osu -7' 29-14...SR: Washington 57-30-4)
*UNLV 23 - San Diego State 17--SDSU showing a bit more bite lately, especially in rally from 21-0 deficit last week vs. Wyo. But rested UNLV's best efforts usually come at Sam Boyd Stadium, and aggressive Rebel "D" can take away Aztecs' hit-and-miss infantry and get after QB O'Connell. MWC sources claim true frosh QB Clayton (again starting) is Mike Sanford's best option for UNLV shotgun spread.
(06-SDS 21-Unlv 7...S.20-18 S.47/141 U.26/39 U.20/39/2/211 S.16/21/1/136 S.1 U.0)
(06-SDS -9 21-7 05-UNLV +9' 13-10 04-SDS -9' 21-3...SR: San Diego State 9-7)
*HAWAII 49 - Fresno St. 24--Since Colt Brennan (6 TDP in last start) has had plenty of time to recuperate from sore ankle with UH playing only once in 23 days, June Jones' Red Gun well-equipped to stretch another margin at Aloha Stadium, where Warriors are 10-4 last 14 laying DDs. Fresno "D" hasn't been able to cope vs. high-powered foes (Oregon & Boise comb. 86 pts.), and QB Brandstater lacks WR weapons to keep pace.
(06-Hi. 68-FRES. ST. 37...H.30-22 F.41/183 H.18/100 H.37/44/0/470 F.18/29/1/304 H.0 F.2)
(06-Hawaii -4 68-37 05-Fsu -12' 27-13 04-FSU -20' 70-14...SR: Fresno St. 20-18-1)
ADDED GAMES
MIDDLE TENN. ST. 31 - La.-Lafayette 24--Generous points worth considering with ULL squad plummetting in class following 59-7 crushing at Tennessee. Ragin' Caguns versatile QB Desormeaux & sidekick RB Fenroy will move sticks vs. wound-licking MTS defense that gave up a whopping 624 yds. to another option-oriented attack in last-minute, 43-40 win vs. UL Monroe. Dog has covered 4 straight in series.
(06-Mts 34-LA.-LAF. 20...17-17 L.30/154 M.37/101 M.19/27/1/244 L.12/24/4/182 M.0 L.2)
(06-Mts +2' 34-20 05-Ull +13' 13-10 04-ULL +2' 24-17...SR: EVEN 4-4)
Navy 48 - NORTH TEXAS 27--There are more similarities between Pat Buchanan & Al Franken than there are between these two and their offensive philosophies. But as long as Navy past celebrating first win over Notre Dame since '63, prefer bludgeoning Mid option over UNT spread. Note Navy (with usual complement of Texans on roster) has covered last 8 reg.-season visits to Lone Star State! (FIRST MEETING)
*FLORIDA ATLANTIC 27 - Arkansas State 16--Life-and-death struggle vs. winless FIU lends credence to belief by some Sun Belt scouts that ASU (1-6 vs. line last 7) had the starch taken out of it by brutal early-season slate. Meanwhile, rested FAU still in New Orleans Bowl mix, and QB Rusty Smith (17 TDP/only 5 int.) providing Howard Schnellenberger's "O" with competent leadership.
(06-FLA. ATL. 29-Ark. St. 0...F.17-8 F.46/178 A.26/6 A.9/24/5/98 F.9/20/1/91 F.0 A.1)
(06-FLA. ATLANTIC +6 29-0 05-ARKANSAS ST. -8' 3-0 (OT)...SR: Arkansas St. 2-1)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
NORTHWESTERN by 9 over Indiana
WAKE FOREST by 2 over Clemson
AIR FORCE by 13 over Notre Dame
AUBURN by 10 over Georgia
posted by phantom
Nov. 6 2007 3:11pm -
0 likes
For more than a decade, John Kelly served as the radio host of "The Stardust Line," the longest-running, single-sponsored sports talk show in the country. His interview subjects included prominent casino owners Bill Boyd and Steve Wynn, professional gamblers Billy Walters and Andy Beyer, and world class athletes Sugar Ray Leonard and Laffit Pincay, Jr.
Kelly currently hosts "Leroy's Sports Hour," a one-hour radio program dedicated to sports betting. The show can be heard weekday afternoons at 2:00 on Fox Sports Radio 1460 (Las Vegas) and ESPN Radio 630 (Reno).
Week 10 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -11 over the ST. LOUIS RAMS
Let's pile on an 0-8 team. The St. Louis Rams are woeful. Injuries have plagued the Rams during the first half of the '07 season. Mainstream media has chronicled the injuries to QB Marc Bulger and RB Steven Jackson, but gamblers will note the Rams offensive line is missing 4 of its 5 opening-day starters. The Rams blew a 14-0 lead in Week 9 to give the Browns their first road win of the year.
In a wide-open NFC, the Saints are back in contention. After starting the season 0-4, the Saints are now even with the league at 4-4. QB Drew Brees looked spectacular last week connecting on 35 of 49 passes for 445 yards and three touchdowns against no interceptions.
"I'd say the swagger is back," Brees told the Associated Press. "We've got a good thing going...but by no means have we accomplished anything yet. That's something we need to realize.
Kelly's forecast.....NEW ORLEANS 38 St. Louis 17
MINNESOTA VIKINGS +6 over the Green Bay Packers
Here's the most impressive part of Adrian Peterson's record-setting day of 296 yards: the Minnesota Vikings are without a passing game to complement Peterson's running skills. Teams know Peterson is going to run the ball yet they still can't stop the rookie out of Oklahoma.
Peterson combines his speed with a willingness to lower his shoulder to frustrate would-be tacklers and dumbfound defensive coordinators. Halfway through his rookie season, Peterson has gained 1,036 yards, a pace that would obliterate Eric Dickerson's rookie record of 1,808 yards set in 1983.
Green Bay is not as good as its 7-1 record would suggest. I'm waiting for QB Brett Favire to regress to his reckless style of 2005 when he threw 29 interceptions and piled up 12 losses.
Let's signal an upset alert.
Kelly's forecast.....MINNESOTA 21 Green Bay 20
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 over the San Diego Chargers
The Colts were valiant in defeat against the undefeated New England Patriots. Let's credit Indy for leading New England by 10 with less than 10 minutes remaining as opposed to downgrading Indy for a fourth-quarter collapse.
San Diego is the team to criticize. The Norv Turner-led Chargers look dazed and confused. QB Philip Rivers exits one of the worst days of his short career. Rivers was just 19 of 42 for 197 yards in a 35-17 loss last week to Minnesota.
The Chargers failed to use their sharpest weapons. Reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson carried the ball only 16 times in last week's loss. Antonio Gates, arguably the best tight end in football, recorded only one catch for 10 yards.
Maybe Marty Schottenheimer wasn't so bad after all.
Kelly's forecast.....INDIANAPOLIS 24 San Diego 10
posted by phantom
Nov. 6 2007 3:12pm -
0 likes
Tuesday, November 6
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C MICHIGAN (5 - 4) at W MICHIGAN (3 - 6) - 11/6/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
W MICHIGAN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
W MICHIGAN is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
W MICHIGAN is 1-1 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Wednesday, November 7
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OHIO U (5 - 5) at AKRON (3 - 6) - 11/7/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
AKRON is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
AKRON is 1-1 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 1-1 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Thursday, November 8
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LOUISVILLE (5 - 4) at W VIRGINIA (7 - 1) - 11/8/2007, 7:45 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
W VIRGINIA is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 1-1 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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TCU (5 - 4) at BYU (6 - 2) - 11/8/2007, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 1-1 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 1-1 straight up against TCU over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Friday, November 9
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BOWLING GREEN (5 - 4) at E MICHIGAN (3 - 7) - 11/9/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 1-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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RUTGERS (5 - 4) at ARMY (3 - 6) - 11/9/2007, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Saturday, November 10
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INDIANA (6 - 4) at NORTHWESTERN (5 - 5) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MICHIGAN ST (5 - 5) at PURDUE (7 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
PURDUE is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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VIRGINIA (8 - 2) at MIAMI (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
VIRGINIA is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WAKE FOREST (6 - 3) at CLEMSON (7 - 2) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WAKE FOREST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 1-1 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PENN ST (7 - 3) at TEMPLE (3 - 6) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GEORGIA TECH (5 - 4) at DUKE (1 -
- 11/10/2007, 1:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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S FLORIDA (6 - 3) at SYRACUSE (2 - 7) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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KENTUCKY (6 - 3) at VANDERBILT (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 2-0 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 2-0 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CONNECTICUT (8 - 1) at CINCINNATI (7 - 2) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO (5 - 5) at IOWA ST (2 -
- 11/10/2007, 12:30 PM There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
IOWA ST is 1-1 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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AIR FORCE (7 - 3) at NOTRE DAME (1 -
- 11/10/2007, 2:30 PM Top Trends for this game.
NOTRE DAME is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
NOTRE DAME is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO ST (1 -
at NEW MEXICO (6 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 3:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (6 - 3) at TULSA (6 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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RICE (2 - 7) at SMU (1 -
- 11/10/2007, 3:00 PM There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 1-1 against the spread versus RICE over the last 3 seasons
SMU is 1-1 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BOISE ST (8 - 1) at UTAH ST (0 - 9) - 11/10/2007, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 69-41 ATS (+23.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 45-23 ATS (+19.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 47-18 ATS (+27.2 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 42-17 ATS (+23.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BOISE ST is 69-41 ATS (+23.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 2-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WYOMING (5 - 4) at UTAH (6 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 1-1 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 1-1 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ARIZONA ST (8 - 1) at UCLA (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ALABAMA (6 - 3) at MISSISSIPPI ST (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS (6 - 3) at TENNESSEE (6 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AUBURN (7 - 3) at GEORGIA (7 - 2) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AUBURN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
GEORGIA is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 1-1 against the spread versus AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 1-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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STANFORD (3 - 6) at WASHINGTON ST (3 - 6) - 11/10/2007, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS ST (5 - 4) at NEBRASKA (4 - 6) - 11/10/2007, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEBRASKA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
NEBRASKA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
NEBRASKA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEBRASKA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEBRASKA is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
NEBRASKA is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (1 - 9) at IOWA (5 - 5) - 11/10/2007, 12:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
IOWA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA is 1-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 1-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS A&M (6 - 4) at MISSOURI (8 - 1) - 11/10/2007, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
MISSOURI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
MISSOURI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS A&M is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS A&M is 1-0 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MICHIGAN (8 - 2) at WISCONSIN (7 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-1 straight up against MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ILLINOIS (7 - 3) at OHIO ST (10 - 0) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLORIDA ST (6 - 3) at VIRGINIA TECH (7 - 2) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 29-9 ATS (+19.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 1-0 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW MEXICO ST (4 - 6) at SAN JOSE ST (3 - 6) - 11/10/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KENT ST (3 - 6) at N ILLINOIS (1 -
- 11/10/2007, 4:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
KENT ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E CAROLINA (6 - 4) at MARSHALL (1 -
- 11/10/2007, 4:30 PM Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
E CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
E CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MEMPHIS (4 - 5) at SOUTHERN MISS (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SOUTHERN MISS is 1-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
SOUTHERN MISS is 1-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOSTON COLLEGE (8 - 1) at MARYLAND (4 - 5) - 11/10/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS TECH (7 - 3) at TEXAS (8 - 2) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BAYLOR (3 - 7) at OKLAHOMA (8 - 1) - 11/10/2007, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 48-73 ATS (-32.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BAYLOR is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
BAYLOR is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 26-49 ATS (-27.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BAYLOR is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BAYLOR is 48-74 ATS (-33.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
OKLAHOMA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N CAROLINA (3 - 6) at NC STATE (4 - 5) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS (9 - 0) at OKLAHOMA ST (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 44-74 ATS (-37.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
KANSAS is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
KANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
KANSAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
KANSAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.
KANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
KANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTEP (4 - 5) at TULANE (2 - 7) - 11/10/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
TULANE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TULANE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TULANE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
TULANE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TULANE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTEP is 2-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
UTEP is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLORIDA (6 - 3) at S CAROLINA (6 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
S CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
S CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UCF (6 - 3) at UAB (2 - 7) - 11/10/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
UAB is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 2-0 against the spread versus UAB over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 2-0 straight up against UAB over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOUISIANA TECH (4 - 5) at LSU (8 - 1) - 11/10/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LSU is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
LSU is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USC (7 - 2) at CALIFORNIA (6 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 2-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
USC is 2-0 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON (3 - 6) at OREGON ST (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 10:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 2-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN DIEGO ST (3 - 5) at UNLV (2 - 7) - 11/10/2007, 11:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
UNLV is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
UNLV is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FRESNO ST (6 - 3) at HAWAII (8 - 0) - 11/10/2007, 11:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAWAII is 1-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
HAWAII is 1-1 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA LAFAYETTE (1 -
at MIDDLE TENN ST (5 - 5) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-1 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-1 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NAVY (5 - 4) at NORTH TEXAS (1 - 7) - 11/10/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 96-65 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
NAVY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 43-18 ATS (+23.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NAVY is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NAVY is 96-65 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 49-19 ATS (+28.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 49-19 ATS (+28.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NORTH TEXAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS ST (4 - 5) at FLA ATLANTIC (4 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 straight up against ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
_________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 6 2007 5:11pm -
0 likes
Tuesday, November 6th
Central Michigan at Western Michigan, 7:30 EST ESPN2
Central Michigan: 12-1 ATS vs. conference opponents
Western Michigan: 1-7 ATS this season
Wednesday, November 7th
Ohio U at Akron, 7:30 EST ESPN2
Ohio U: 8-1 ATS after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
Akron: 1-10 ATS off a conference game
Thursday, November 8th
Louisville at West Virginia, 7:45 EST ESPN
Louisville: 3-12 ATS off ATS losses in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
West Virginia: 12-3 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
TCU at BYU, 9:00 EST VER
TCU: 12-2 ATS off BB conference games
BYU: 8-2 Over off a home win by 17+ points
Friday, November 9th
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan, 7:30 EST ESPNU
Bowling Green: 4-13 ATS as a favorite
Eastern Michigan: 6-1 ATS off a loss by 21+ points
Rutgers at Army, 8:00 EST ESPN2
Rutgers: 6-0 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Army: 1-5 ATS as a home underdog
Saturday, November 10th
Indiana at Northwestern, 12:00 EST
Indiana: 9-2 Over off a home win by 17+ points
Northwestern: 6-0 ATS off a conference home loss
Michigan State at Purdue, 12:00 EST
Michigan State: 4-16 ATS off a conference game
Purdue: 7-1 ATS in November
Virginia at Miami FL, 12:00 EST
Virginia: 6-17 ATS away in November
Miami FL: 15-3 Under in home games
Wake Forest at Clemson, 12:00 EST
Wake Forest: 9-0 Under off a loss by 6 points or less
Clemson: 10-3 ATS off a win by 35+ points
Penn State at Temple, 12:00 EST
Penn State: 11-2 Under off a SU home win / ATS loss
Temple: 3-10 ATS as a home underdog of 21.5 to 28 points
Georgia Tech at Duke, 12:00 EST
Georgia Tech: 16-6 ATS after playing a Thursday game
Duke: 3-12 ATS in home games
South Florida at Syracuse, 12:00 EST
South Florida: 7-0 Under off 3+ conference games
Syracuse: 18-7 ATS off BB Unders
Kentucky at Vanderbilt, 12:30 EST
Kentucky: 5-15 ATS off BB games allowing 31+ points
Vanderbilt: 6-1 Over in November
Connecticut at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Connecticut: 9-0 Under after scoring 37+ points
Cincinnati: 11-2 ATS after forcing 5+ turnovers
Colorado at Iowa State, 2:00 EST
Colorado: 10-0 Under after committing 3+ turnovers
Iowa State: 1-5 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games
Air Force at Notre Dame, 2:30 EST
Air Force: 24-10 ATS away off a home win
Notre Dame: 7-1 Under as an underdog
Colorado State at New Mexico, 3:00 EST
Colorado State: 14-4 ATS off ATS losses in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
New Mexico: 0-6 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Houston at Tulsa, 3:00 EST
Houston: 1-6 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Tulsa: 8-2 Under off a conference win by 10+ points
Rice at SMU, 3:00 EST
Rice: 17-4 Over vs. conference opponents
SMU: 5-14 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win
Boise State at Utah State, 3:05 EST
Boise State: 39-11 ATS off BB conference games
Utah State: 0-6 ATS off BB games scoring 7 or less first-half points
Wyoming at Utah, 3:30 EST
Wyoming: 1-10 ATS off 3+ conference games
Utah: 22-9 ATS off a bye week
Arizona State at UCLA, 3:30 EST
Arizona State: 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
UCLA: 8-1 ATS at home off a conference game
Alabama at Mississippi State, 3:30 EST
Alabama: 5-1 Over vs. conference opponents
Mississippi State: 2-12 ATS off BB Unders
Arkansas at Tennessee, 3:30 EST
Arkansas: 9-2 Under off BB Overs
Tennessee: 6-0 ATS off BB home games
Auburn at Georgia, 3:30 EST
Auburn: 6-0 ATS as an underdog
Georgia: 2-8 ATS off 3+ wins
Stanford at Washington State, 3:30 EST
Stanford: 4-12 ATS vs. conference opponents
Washington State: 13-4 ATS off BB Unders
Kansas State at Nebraska, 3:30 EST
Kansas State: 30-14 ATS off a conference loss
Nebraska: 1-6 ATS after allowing 37+ points
Minnesota at Iowa, 3:30 EST
Minnesota: 19-7 Over in November
Iowa: 16-6 ATS at home in November
Texas A&M at Missouri, 3:30 EST
Texas A&M: 8-22 ATS as a road underdog
Missouri: 8-2 ATS off BB conference wins
Michigan at Wisconsin, 3:30 EST
Michigan: 11-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
Wisconsin: 1-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Illinois at Ohio State, 3:30 EST
Illinois: 9-2 Under off an Over
Ohio State: 17-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Florida State at Virginia Tech, 3:30 EST
Florida State: 4-15 ATS away off 3+ conference games
Virginia Tech: 10-1 ATS off a win as an underdog
New Mexico State at San Jose State, 4:00 EST
New Mexico State: 2-11 ATS off a home game
San Jose State: 20-8 ATS as a favorite
Kent State at Northern Illinois, 4:00 EST
Kent State: 2-11 ATS off a home game
Northern Illinois: 11-3 ATS off BB ATS losses
East Carolina at Marshall, 4:30 EST
East Carolina: 9-2 ATS in road games
Marshall: 3-11 ATS as an underdog
Memphis at Southern Miss, 4:30 EST
Memphis: 4-13 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points
Southern Miss: 7-1 Over after allowing 14 points or less
Boston College at Maryland, 6:00 EST
Boston College: 7-1 Under as a road favorite
Maryland: 15-4 ATS at home off a conference road loss
Texas Tech at Texas, 7:00 EST
Texas Tech: 0-7 ATS away off a conference win
Texas: 11-2 ATS at home off 3+ conference wins
Baylor at Oklahoma, 7:00 EST
Baylor: 1-10 ATS off BB conference games
Oklahoma: 17-3 Under after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
North Carolina at NC State, 7:00 EST
North Carolina: 14-5 ATS off BB games scoring 17 points or less
NC State: 6-17 ATS off a road conference win
Kansas at Oklahoma State, 7:00 EST
Kansas: 7-0 ATS as a favorite
Oklahoma State: 1-6 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
UTEP at Tulane, 7:00 EST
UTEP: 1-7 ATS in November
Tulane: 6-1 Under off a home loss by 14+ points
Florida at South Carolina, 7:30 EST
Florida: 1-8 ATS as a road favorite
South Carolina: 13-4 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Central Florida at UAB, 7:30 EST
Central Florida: 6-0 ATS off BB Unders
UAB: 0-6 ATS at home off a conference game
Louisiana Tech at LSU, 8:00 EST
Louisiana Tech: 0-6 ATS off BB road games
LSU: 6-0 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents
USC at California, 8:00 EST
USC: 24-9 ATS after scoring 24+ first-half points
California: 3-12 ATS off 3+ conference games
Washington at Oregon State, 10:15 EST
Washington: 4-12 ATS after allowing 9 points or less
Oregon State: 10-3 Under off a combined score of 29 points or less
San Diego State at UNLV, 11:00 EST
San Diego State: 10-3 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
UNLV: 2-10 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win
Fresno State at Hawaii, 11:05 EST
Fresno State: 2-12 ATS off an ATS loss
Hawaii: 15-6 ATS as a favorite
Added Games:
Louisiana Lafayette at Middle Tennessee State, 3:30 EST
LA Lafayette: 2-9 ATS vs. conference opponents
Mid Tenn State: 8-1 ATS off a conference win
Navy at North Texas, 4:00 EST
Navy: 13-2 ATS away off a combined score of 70+ points
North Texas: 1-9 ATS off BB conference games
Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic, 4:00 EST
Arkansas State: 9-2 Over after scoring 3 or less first-half points
Florida Atl: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite
posted by phantom
Nov. 6 2007 5:11pm -
0 likes
More NFL trends and stats.
Buf 5-0 ATS L5games
Buf 6-0 ATS vs Mia L6games
Under is 6-2 in BUF last 8 vs. AFC.
BUF are 21-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
MIA are 6-23-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. AFC East.
MIA are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC.
MIA are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 home games.
Mia Defense allowing 34.3 pts/game L3games
PIT are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
PIT are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Over is 8-3-1 in PIT last 12 vs. AFC North.
PIT is 8-0 ATS L8games vs CLE
PIT is 4-0 ATS this year at HOME
PIT beat CLE at CLE 34-7 in week 1 this year
CLE are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
CLE is 6-1 ATS L7games
CLE is 7-0-1 O/U L8games
DEN is 1-7 ATS this year.
DEN are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC West.
DEN are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Over is 9-1 in DEN last 10 games on grass.
DEN defense is giving up 30.3 pts/game L3games
KC is 3-0 ATS L3games vs. DEN
KC are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC West.
Under is 9-2 in KC last 11 games in Week 10.
KC are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 10.
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
TEN won 13-10 at JAC in Week 1.
Under is 7-1 in TEN last 8 games overall.
TEN are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC.
TEN are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
JAC is playing in their 3rd straight road game.
Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
JAC are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 meetings.
JAC defense giving up 31 points/game L3games.
MIN are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC North.
Over is 6-2-2 in MIN last 10 vs. NFC North.
Under is 13-5 in MIN last 18 games on grass.
GB won at Min 23-16 in week 4.
GB are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
GB are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC.
Under is 10-4-1 in GB last 15 vs. NFC North.
GB defense is allowing only 16.3 points/game L3.
Road team is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Underdog is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 meetings.
PHI are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 10.
PHI are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
WAS won at Phi 20-12 in week 2.
WAS is 0-3 ATS L3games
Washington: WAS are 1-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 9-3-1 in WAS last 13 games in November.
WAS defense is allowing 30.3 points/game L3.
Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
STL offense avg. 9.7pts/game while def allowing 27.3 in L3games
STL are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
STL are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
Under is 6-2 in STL last 8 games overall.
NO are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 10.
NO are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
Over is 6-2 in NO last 8 vs. NFC.
Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings
NO off avg 31.3 pts/game while def only allowing 16.7 in L3games.
ATL is 4-1 ATS L5games.
ATL is 3-1 ATS in road games this year.
Under is 7-1 in ATL last 8 vs. NFC South.
Under is 14-3 in ATL last 17 games overall.
Under is 13-3-1 in ATL last 17 vs. NFC.
CAR won 27-20 at ATL in week 3.
CAR is 0-3 ATS at home this year.
CAR is 5-1 ATS in L6 games vs ATL
CAR are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
CAR are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
CAR are 57-28-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings.
CIN won 27-20 at home vs BAL in week 1.
CIN is 5-1 ATS in L6 vs BAL
CIN are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 10.
CIN are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 road games.
CIN def is giving up 29.3 pts/game L3.
BAL are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
BAL are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
BAL offense avg only 14.3 pts/game L3.
Under is 17-8-5 in BAL last 30 vs. AFC.
Favorite is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
CHI are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
CHI are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
CHI are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 10.
OAK is 0-4 ATS at home this year
OAK offense only avg. 12pts/game L3.
OAK def. only giving up 16.3 pts/game L3.
OAK are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 home games.
OAK are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
Under is 14-5-1 in OAK last 20 games overall.
DAL won 45-35 at home in week 1 vs NYG.
DAL are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
Over is 11-3-2 in DAL last 16 games on grass.
DAL are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
DAL defense is giving up 26.3 pts/game L3.
NYG 5-1 ATS L6 games.
NYG def is giving up only 11.7 pts/game L3.
Under is 11-4-1 in NYG last 16 games in November.
Home team is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 meetings.
DET is 3-1 ATS vs ARI in L 4 meetings.
DET is 4-1 ATS L5 games.
DET is avg. 27.7 pts/game L3 games.
DET def is only giving up 10 pts/game L3 games.
DET are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 10.
Over is 9-4 in DET last 13 road games.
ARI is 1-3 ATS L4 games.
ARI is only avg. 13 pts/game L3 games.
ARI are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
ARI are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
ARI are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
IND is 7-1 ATS this year.
IND is 5-0 ATS L5 games.
IND is 4-0 SU on the road this year.
IND def only giving up 12.7 pts/game L3 games.
Over is 10-1 in IND last 11 games in Week 10.
IND are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in November.
IND are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
SD is 3-1 ATS L3 games.
SD is 3-1 ATS at home this year.
Over is 12-3 in SD last 15 games in November.
SD are 31-15-2 ATS in their last 48 games on grass.
SF is 1-5 ATS in L6 games.
SF is only avg. 13.7 pts/game L3.
SF is giving up 28 pts/game L3.
Under is 7-1 in SF last 8 vs. NFC West.
SF are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 Mon. games.
SF are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 10.
SEA won 23-3 in week 4 at SF.
SEA are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 10.
SEA are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC West.
Under is 9-4 in SEA last 13 games overall
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:04am -
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College Football Angle of the Week
by Tom Scott
There is nothing more satisfying to a football team than beating somebody it wasn’t supposed to beat, especially when it does it in front of the home folks. Conversely, there is nothing more deflating than playing well enough to accomplish that trick but coming up just short.
We took that idea to our database and found that, in the game after a close home loss as an underdog in which the losing team played reasonably well, leaving the friendly confines for another game was particularly distasteful. Some definitions are in order here. By "playing well enough to win", we used 35 points scored as the measuring stick. For "coming up just short", we used a loss of six or less points. With those definitions in place, we present this week’s angle:
PLAY AGAINST any road or neutral team who scored 35 or more points as a home underdog in its previous game, if it lost that game by six or less points and is now a favorite or is an underdog of less than +10.
26 Year ATS = 17-3 for 85% winners.
This week’s play = SAN JOSE STATE minus the points over New Mexico State
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:08am -
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nfl trends
Sunday, November 11th
Week 10 Byes: Houston, New England, NY Jets, Tampa Bay
Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 0-7 ATS off BB Overs
Tennessee: 7-1 ATS off BB home wins
Denver at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Denver: 8-1 ATS off BB games scoring 14 points or less
Kansas City: 11-3 Under vs. division opponents
Buffalo at Miami, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 9-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Miami: 2-11 ATS vs. division opponents
Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: 9-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points
Pittsburgh: 5-0 Over vs. Cleveland
St. Louis at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
St. Louis: 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 10+ points
New Orleans: 6-1 Over off a home win
Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 EST
Atlanta: 8-1 Under away off a win
Carolina: 2-9 ATS off a road game
Philadelphia at Washington, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 7-0 ATS off a home loss by 21+ points
Washington: 18-6 Under after having 175+ rushing yards
Minnesota at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
Minnesota: 2-11 ATS off a win as a home underdog
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game
Cincinnati at Baltimore, 4:05 EST
Cincinnati: 1-9 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Baltimore: 8-3 ATS at home vs. Cincinnati
Chicago at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Chicago: 23-8 ATS away in November
Oakland: 1-8 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Dallas at NY Giants, 4:15 EST
Dallas: 5-1 Over off a win
NY Giants: 8-2 ATS playing with revenge
Detroit at Arizona, 4:15 EST
Detroit: 5-16 ATS away off BB wins
Arizona: 23-8 ATS at home off 3+ losses
Indianapolis at San Diego, 8:15 EST NBC
Indianapolis: 15-5 ATS off 3+ Unders
San Diego: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Monday, November 12th
San Francisco at Seattle, 8:30 EST ESPN
San Francisco: 20-8 ATS on Monday nights
Seattle: 9-3 Over after scoring 30+ points
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:08am -
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Wednesday, November 7th
Ohio U at Akron, 7:30 EST ESPN2
Ohio U: 8-1 ATS after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
Akron: 1-10 ATS off a conference game
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Thursday, November 8th
Louisville at West Virginia, 7:45 EST ESPN
Louisville: 3-12 ATS off ATS losses in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
West Virginia: 12-3 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
TCU at BYU, 9:00 EST VER
TCU: 12-2 ATS off BB conference games
BYU: 8-2 Over off a home win by 17+ points
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Friday, November 9th
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan, 7:30 EST ESPNU
Bowling Green: 4-13 ATS as a favorite
Eastern Michigan: 6-1 ATS off a loss by 21+ points
Rutgers at Army, 8:00 EST ESPN2
Rutgers: 6-0 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Army: 1-5 ATS as a home underdog
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Saturday, November 10th
Indiana at Northwestern, 12:00 EST
Indiana: 9-2 Over off a home win by 17+ points
Northwestern: 6-0 ATS off a conference home loss
Michigan State at Purdue, 12:00 EST
Michigan State: 4-16 ATS off a conference game
Purdue: 7-1 ATS in November
Virginia at Miami FL, 12:00 EST
Virginia: 6-17 ATS away in November
Miami FL: 15-3 Under in home games
Wake Forest at Clemson, 12:00 EST
Wake Forest: 9-0 Under off a loss by 6 points or less
Clemson: 10-3 ATS off a win by 35+ points
Penn State at Temple, 12:00 EST
Penn State: 11-2 Under off a SU home win / ATS loss
Temple: 3-10 ATS as a home underdog of 21.5 to 28 points
Georgia Tech at Duke, 12:00 EST
Georgia Tech: 16-6 ATS after playing a Thursday game
Duke: 3-12 ATS in home games
South Florida at Syracuse, 12:00 EST
South Florida: 7-0 Under off 3+ conference games
Syracuse: 18-7 ATS off BB Unders
Kentucky at Vanderbilt, 12:30 EST
Kentucky: 5-15 ATS off BB games allowing 31+ points
Vanderbilt: 6-1 Over in November
Connecticut at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Connecticut: 9-0 Under after scoring 37+ points
Cincinnati: 11-2 ATS after forcing 5+ turnovers
Colorado at Iowa State, 2:00 EST
Colorado: 10-0 Under after committing 3+ turnovers
Iowa State: 1-5 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games
Air Force at Notre Dame, 2:30 EST
Air Force: 24-10 ATS away off a home win
Notre Dame: 7-1 Under as an underdog
Colorado State at New Mexico, 3:00 EST
Colorado State: 14-4 ATS off ATS losses in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
New Mexico: 0-6 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Houston at Tulsa, 3:00 EST
Houston: 1-6 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Tulsa: 8-2 Under off a conference win by 10+ points
Rice at SMU, 3:00 EST
Rice: 17-4 Over vs. conference opponents
SMU: 5-14 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win
Boise State at Utah State, 3:05 EST
Boise State: 39-11 ATS off BB conference games
Utah State: 0-6 ATS off BB games scoring 7 or less first-half points
Wyoming at Utah, 3:30 EST
Wyoming: 1-10 ATS off 3+ conference games
Utah: 22-9 ATS off a bye week
Arizona State at UCLA, 3:30 EST
Arizona State: 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
UCLA: 8-1 ATS at home off a conference game
Alabama at Mississippi State, 3:30 EST
Alabama: 5-1 Over vs. conference opponents
Mississippi State: 2-12 ATS off BB Unders
Arkansas at Tennessee, 3:30 EST
Arkansas: 9-2 Under off BB Overs
Tennessee: 6-0 ATS off BB home games
Auburn at Georgia, 3:30 EST
Auburn: 6-0 ATS as an underdog
Georgia: 2-8 ATS off 3+ wins
Stanford at Washington State, 3:30 EST
Stanford: 4-12 ATS vs. conference opponents
Washington State: 13-4 ATS off BB Unders
Kansas State at Nebraska, 3:30 EST
Kansas State: 30-14 ATS off a conference loss
Nebraska: 1-6 ATS after allowing 37+ points
Minnesota at Iowa, 3:30 EST
Minnesota: 19-7 Over in November
Iowa: 16-6 ATS at home in November
Texas A&M at Missouri, 3:30 EST
Texas A&M: 8-22 ATS as a road underdog
Missouri: 8-2 ATS off BB conference wins
Michigan at Wisconsin, 3:30 EST
Michigan: 11-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
Wisconsin: 1-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Illinois at Ohio State, 3:30 EST
Illinois: 9-2 Under off an Over
Ohio State: 17-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Florida State at Virginia Tech, 3:30 EST
Florida State: 4-15 ATS away off 3+ conference games
Virginia Tech: 10-1 ATS off a win as an underdog
New Mexico State at San Jose State, 4:00 EST
New Mexico State: 2-11 ATS off a home game
San Jose State: 20-8 ATS as a favorite
Kent State at Northern Illinois, 4:00 EST
Kent State: 2-11 ATS off a home game
Northern Illinois: 11-3 ATS off BB ATS losses
East Carolina at Marshall, 4:30 EST
East Carolina: 9-2 ATS in road games
Marshall: 3-11 ATS as an underdog
Memphis at Southern Miss, 4:30 EST
Memphis: 4-13 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points
Southern Miss: 7-1 Over after allowing 14 points or less
Boston College at Maryland, 6:00 EST
Boston College: 7-1 Under as a road favorite
Maryland: 15-4 ATS at home off a conference road loss
Texas Tech at Texas, 7:00 EST
Texas Tech: 0-7 ATS away off a conference win
Texas: 11-2 ATS at home off 3+ conference wins
Baylor at Oklahoma, 7:00 EST
Baylor: 1-10 ATS off BB conference games
Oklahoma: 17-3 Under after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
North Carolina at NC State, 7:00 EST
North Carolina: 14-5 ATS off BB games scoring 17 points or less
NC State: 6-17 ATS off a road conference win
Kansas at Oklahoma State, 7:00 EST
Kansas: 7-0 ATS as a favorite
Oklahoma State: 1-6 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
UTEP at Tulane, 7:00 EST
UTEP: 1-7 ATS in November
Tulane: 6-1 Under off a home loss by 14+ points
Florida at South Carolina, 7:30 EST
Florida: 1-8 ATS as a road favorite
South Carolina: 13-4 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Central Florida at UAB, 7:30 EST
Central Florida: 6-0 ATS off BB Unders
UAB: 0-6 ATS at home off a conference game
Louisiana Tech at LSU, 8:00 EST
Louisiana Tech: 0-6 ATS off BB road games
LSU: 6-0 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents
USC at California, 8:00 EST
USC: 24-9 ATS after scoring 24+ first-half points
California: 3-12 ATS off 3+ conference games
Washington at Oregon State, 10:15 EST
Washington: 4-12 ATS after allowing 9 points or less
Oregon State: 10-3 Under off a combined score of 29 points or less
San Diego State at UNLV, 11:00 EST
San Diego State: 10-3 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
UNLV: 2-10 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win
Fresno State at Hawaii, 11:05 EST
Fresno State: 2-12 ATS off an ATS loss
Hawaii: 15-6 ATS as a favorite
Added Games:
Louisiana Lafayette at Middle Tennessee State, 3:30 EST
LA Lafayette: 2-9 ATS vs. conference opponents
Mid Tenn State: 8-1 ATS off a conference win
Navy at North Texas, 4:00 EST
Navy: 13-2 ATS away off a combined score of 70+ points
North Texas: 1-9 ATS off BB conference games
Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic, 4:00 EST
Arkansas State: 9-2 Over after scoring 3 or less first-half points
Florida Atl: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:09am -
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Doug Upstone
NFL Play Against Teams
Posted: 2007-11-06
This season we have watched a number of teams rise from the ashes to be extremely successful and for profitable for its backers. Green Bay, Tennessee, Detroit and Cleveland all come to mind as teams exceeding expectations. On the dark side, there is a gathering of NFL teams that is not even coming close to meeting pre-season expectations. Here is a look at those teams and a not so rosy future.
These Ravens being eaten alive – The uniforms looked the same, the familiar pre-game wolfing was seen and heard, but who exactly are these players in the purple helmets with the letter ‘B’? The bravado was all there before the AFC North battle with Pittsburgh. "This is our playoff game," defensive tackle Trevor Pryce said. Baltimore instead looked strangely like Miami instead of the Ravens in being blasted 38-7. No question they missed not having both starting cornerbacks, but where was the safety help on all the long bombs? Pass rush, never saw one from Baltimore. Steve McNair is literally aging in dog year’s right before our eyes. His ineffectiveness this season is being blamed on offensive tackles not playing and hampering the running game. McNair was not the main reason the Ravens were 13-3 last season and he is not the sole reason why they are a shell of there former selves. The league’s oldest team looks every bit of it and Brian Billick might want to try another play-caller because his approach seems to be you need binoculars to throw the ball down the field. The rest of the schedule is among the most challenging in football. At San Diego and Seattle will be trying trips and the home slate includes improving Cleveland, New England, Indianapolis and a return visit with Pittsburgh. By all appearances this Ravens run is over and playing against Billick’s bunch is bankroll builder.
San Diego being hit by lightning – Many questioned the firing of Marty Schottenheimer after 14-2 regular season and the hiring of Norv Turner, who has made his mark as offensive guru, but never as head coach. As the losses continue to mount, often in shocking fashion, the wisdom of the San Diego front office has to come into question. Teams in the hunt for a Super Bowl don’t give up record 296 yards to any running back. This is even truer when a team loses its starting quarterback, who was already a terrible passer and is replaced by back-up, in this case noted (?) Brooks Bollinger. The new defensive scheme has allowed four opponents to score 30 or more points. Opposing teams are selling out to not let LaDainian Tomlinson beat them, throwing down the gauntlet and seeing if Philip Rivers can beat them. Thus far the answer is pretty clear, not a chance in Hades, particularly with Antonio Gates drawing double coverage in rolled up zones in passing situations. Hosting Indianapolis off a loss will not be great fun after Minnesota hangs 35 points on the scoreboard and that is followed by cross-country adventure to tough-minded Jacksonville. In early December a two game road trip takes the Chargers to Kansas City and Tennessee. The AFC West is so weak San Diego could still win it; however betting on this overvalued team makes no sense.
Philadelphia is flopping – Maybe the Philadelphia front office set the tone for the season in drafting quarterback Kevin Kolb as their first pick. His selection sent shock waves thru the City of Brotherly Love. The forward thinking Eagles have generally looked towards the future and since Donovan McNabb was off a couple of injury plagued seasons and his odometer had turned both numbers to 30, it made sense to them to prepare for the future. McNabb is not one to talk, rest assured he is very prideful and was stung even knowing he is not the same quarterback that can scramble around and make plays presently. Most of the time, teams that finish strong one season are poised for bigger things the next. Philly lost three of first four encounters in 2007 and instead of soaring like an eagle; they resemble a 1985 AMC Eagle. With a slightly above average defense, an offense that scores 19.5 points a game thanks to hanging 56 on Detroit, and a coach who is embattled in off the field controversy with his children, the future is cloudier then a gray Philly November day. With six of the remaining seven contests all potential playoffs teams and little ability to score consistently; backing these birds is dicey proposition.
NFL Out-Takes – After five consecutive weeks of lower scoring games, the Over was the correct side for totals players this past week….Cleveland, New England and Dallas are in the top four of teams playing Over the number thanks to offenses on impressive rolls. Denver rounds out the group of teams playing Over because of a faulty defense allowing over 28 points a game….The best Under teams are mostly losers, with St. Louis and Atlanta piling up defeats. Carolina might be turning to former Panther Chris Weinke with all the injuries at the quarterback position. It is hard to fathom a team with Steve Smith (ranked 27th) can’t throw the pigskin. Tennessee is the only team with a winning record that fits this profile, thanks an exceptional defense and slobber-knocker running game. Vince Young is getting credit for being under center and the Titans are winning, not sure it is because of or in spite of the former Longhorn….As long as it keeps winning, you might as well keep playing, home favorites of touchdown or more are 14-6 ATS, 70 percent….Teams in the yards per point category actually had a off week with 2-1 record (two teams played each other) and LOWERED record to 30-10 ATS, 75 percent. Don’t forget to play against the bad clubs in this same field since they improved to 26-12 68.4 percent after 3-1 week.
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:09am -
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marc l
THREE DOG FIGHT
Posted: 2007-11-06
The final sentence in the verse to the song above says, “Together they grow to see the light. To see the light.†It was a classic tune by a classic group – “Black and White†by Three Dog Night.
They were three vocalists who formed an American rock and roll band whose name was taken from a phrase meaning a night so cold that one needs to sleep while embracing three dogs. In fact, early on in their career they recorded songs with Brian Wilson, one of the original Beach Boys, and went by the name Redwood.
Shortly after changing the name of the band and hiring a talented group of backing musicians, they became one of the most successful bands in the land in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. Like most musicians with eighteen Top 20 tunes, including three No. 1’s (Joy to the World, Mama Told Me, and Black and White), their music is known worldwide. Despite the tribulations of drug abuse and death to key members of the group, they have managed to persevere. Yes siree, there’s still plenty of fight in Three Dog Night as they continue to tour today.
The same holds true for a lot of the ugly dogs parading in the NFL these days. No, these mutts are never very likeable to the betting public, but like the loyal canines they are they can be very rewarding to those who support them. The truth be known, there is one particular situation in which they howl with the best of teams.
Simply put, we are looking to -
PLAY ON any 0-3 or worse NFL dog that is playing with a week of rest .
Granted, winless dogs in this league are never very attractive, especially to those who choose to run with the pure pedigrees. However, if there is ever an optimum time to take advantage of these hungry pups it is in this role as these teams are an amazing 20-3 ATS since 1980, winning fourteen of the games straight-up in the field! As Gomer Pyle would say, “Shazam!â€
Last year the Tampa Bay Buccaneers assumed this role as 6.5 points dogs at New Orleans the second Sunday in October. After having been a playoff team the prior year, they had opened the season in embarrassing fashion (0-3). Well rested and in need of a spark, they went on to battle the Saints tooth-n-nail before finally succumbing in a 24-21 loss.
One nice twist to this puppy comes about when he enters this game off a loss of less than twenty points (as did the Bucs). These teams are now an incredible 15-1 ATS!
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:10am -
0 likes
Marc l Smart Box
AS THE NOOSE TIGHTENS
November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race, College Football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and College Hoops tip off a new campaign. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value-aplenty abounds.
Our focus in the world of College Football begins to center around postseason bowl games during Turkey Month. In particular, we like to zero in on UNDEFEATED teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten. As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road.
This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the road from game 10 or later are 37-55-1 ATS. Put them up against a conference foe and they dip to 27-41-1 ATS. This week's qualifying team is KANSAS (note: should they remain perfect this week, we'll also be monitoring the progress of Hawaii and Ohio State next Saturday).
Put them on a horse whose conference opponent is off a SUATS win and they slip to 8-22-1 ATS. And if they defeated this week’s opponent last season they fall off the horse, going 4-16-1 ATS. The Kansas Jayhawks figure to be suffering from neck burn this weekend. Gentlemen, mount your horses..
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:10am -
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Marc l stat of the week
The underdog in the Minnesota/Green Bay series is 14-1-1 ATS.
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:10am -
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marc l angle of the week
TRIPLE COVERAGE
PLAY AGAINST any college favorite that is 3-0 SU & ATS in its last three games versus an opponent that is 0-3 SU & ATS in its last three games if the opponent lost to the spread by 12 > points in its last game.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 16-7-2 (70%)
Play Against: Central Florida
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:12am -
0 likes
marc l Fast Fact
HOME FOG
College Football home dogs off a loss in which they allowed 57 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-13 SUATS since 1980.
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:12am -
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Big Dogs
Here are the big dogs for the week . There are only two this week ,UtahState, Memphis
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:12am -
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Power ~ Sweep
4 * UCF 49 UAB 6
3 * USC 27 Cal 13
3* FAU 34 Ark St. 16
2* Ohio State 34 Illinois 13
2* Washington State 27 Stanford 6
2* Missouri 48 aTm 17
Underdog POW
South Carolina 38 FLorida 35
posted by phantom
Nov. 7 2007 2:13am -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence Friday Night CFB Super Pick Super Play! - Friday 11/9:
Play On: Rutgers
Note: Scarlet Knight travel to Army to take on the Cadets knowing they are 4-0 SUATS in this series the last 10 years. With Rutgers 12-1 ATS in SU road wins when playing off a loss, look for the Knights to get back on the win track here tonight.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 2:07pm -
0 likes
Northcoast Infomercial
Young Gun Sports
4* San Antonio -3
Big 12 POW
Texas Tech
BEN BURNS Friday Night Game of the Month
ARMY
Game: Rutgers vs. Army Game Time: 11/9/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Army Reason: I'm taking the points with ARMY. The popular opinion will be that Scarlet Knights, who still need a win to become bowl eligible, will want to take out the frustration of their disappointing season by blowing out the Black Knights. While they'd surely like to do so, I don't feel that the Scarlet Knights are currently playing well enough to be laying nearly three touchdowns on the road - not even against Army! Rutgers comes off back to back losses, getting outscored 69-22 in the process. Although they did earn a cover at Syracuse, the Scarlet Knights are still a money-burning 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they were laying points on the road. Coming off a string of important Big East games and with their home finale vs. Pittsburgh on deck, it may be easy to take tonight's "lowly" non-conference opponent lightly. While the competition (Tulane, Temple, Rhode Island) has been admittedly rather weak, the Black Knights have played well at home. In fact, they're a perfect 3-0, outscoring opponents by an average score of 24-15. Looking back a bit further and we find the Black Knights at 7-3 SU their last 10 games here. Despite coming up just short of the cover vs. Air Force last week, the Black Knights also remain a profitable 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points. Look for the Black Knights to show some pride as they rise to the occasion and keep this game closer than expected. *Friday Night GOM
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 2:08pm -
0 likes
Saturday 11/10 Service Plays
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Northcoast Early Bird
AzSt -6.5
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NC Comp Power Plays 4*
Mizzou -19.5
6-4 this year
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Underdog POW
Oklahoma St +6
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NCoast Comp. #2 Economy Club. 16-8 Last 2 years
NCSt -3
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Northcoast Big Dogs
Utah State
Memphis.
NCoast CUSA GOW 6-3 this year
Houston +1
NCoast Comp big12 pow. 29-8 last 37
TTech +6.5
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 2:12pm -
0 likes
KELSO STUREGON (STAT NEWSLETTER)
Air Force, at Notre Dame, is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games this season.
Alabama, at Mississippi State, is 6-4 SU but just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games with Mississippi State and lost to the Bulldogs, 24-16, last year as a 14-point favorite.
Arizona State is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last 7 games with UCLA.
Arkansas is 2-5 SU but 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games with Tennessee.
Auburn is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 games at Auburn.
Connecticut, at Cincinnati, is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last 6 games and was favored but once in those contests.
Duke, hosting Georgia Tech, has averaged just 10.0 points in its last four games.
Florida, at South Carolina, is 9-1 SU and 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games with the Gamecocks.
Florida International, hosting Louisiana Lafayette, is 0-4 SU and ATS in this series and overall has lost 21 straight games.
Florida State, at Virginia Tech, is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last 3 meetings with the Hokies.
Hawaii, hosting Fresno State, is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 home games against the Bulldogs.
Illinois, at Ohio State, is 2-6 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games with the Buckeyes.
Kansas, 9-0 SU and 8-0 ATS this season, is at Oklahoma State and stands 0-5 SU and ATS in its last 5 games with the Cowboys.
Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games with the Commodores.
LSU, hosting Louisiana Tech, is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games this season.
Michigan, at Wisconsin, is 7-1 SU but just 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games with the Badgers.
Michigan State, at Purdue, is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last 4 road games against the Boilermakers.
Middle Tennessee, hosting Louisiana-Lafayette, is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games this season.
North Carolina, at N.C. State, is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on its last 4 trips to Raleigh.
Oregon is 9-1 SU and ATS this season and is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at Arizona.
Southern California, at California, has played to the "under" in its last 7 games and in 8 of the nine games it has played this season
__________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 2:14pm -
0 likes
Ben Burns comp
NCAAF for 11/10/2007 - Boston College at Maryland
Prediction: Maryland
It's often tough for college teams that had national title aspirations to regain the same intensity after suffering their first loss of the season. In fact, you may recall that we successfully played against South Florida (at Connecticut) a couple of weeks ago after the Bulls had suffered their first loss. Here are a few other recent examples of highly-ranked teams that struggled after suffering their first loss. After the No. 1-ranked LSU Tigers lost their first game of the season, they barely beat Auburn, failing to cover. Another highly ranked team, the California Golden Bears, followed up their first loss by losing again the following week. The same thing happened to defending champion Florida as the Gators lost outright and followed it up with another loss. After No. 13 Clemson suffered its first loss, the Tigers were crushed at home. The Cincinnati Bearcats started the season with six straight wins. After losing in Week 7, they were favored by double-digits the next week but lost outright vs. Pittsburgh. The Bearcats were in the opposite role only a couple of weeks before that, as they faced a Rutgers team which was coming off its first loss. What happened? The Scarlet Knights lost again!
This week, it's Boston College which is coming off its first loss. A week after a rather miraculous comeback at Virginia Tech, the No. 2-ranked Eagles came up short vs. Florida State. Off that loss, with its dreams of a national title now history, I expect the Eagles to struggle at Maryland this week. Despite last week's loss, the Eagles remain an impressive 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS the last 13 times they faced a team with a winning record. However, this week they'll face a team with a losing record and they haven't been nearly as strong in that role. Indeed, the Eagles are a money-burning 1-8 ATS the last nine times they faced a team which was below .500. They're also 5-7 ATS the last 12 times they were listed as road favorites of -3.5 to 7 points, including 0-3 ATS the last three. During the same stretch, the Terrapins were 6-3 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range, winning five of those games outright.
Despite their 4-5 record, the Terrapins still have a small chance of becoming bowl eligible. Look for them to have more intensity from the opening kickoff and for that to result in at least a cover. Consider taking the points.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 2:15pm -
0 likes
Tom Stryker comp
NCAAF for 11/10/2007 - Michigan at Wisconsin
Prediction: Wisconsin
Off last Saturday's rivalry win over Michigan State and with Ohio State on schedule to visit Ann Arbor next weekend, this trip to Camp Randall is going to be a tough one for the University of Michigan. The Badgers enter this last home game affair off their 38-17 whipping compliments of the No. 1-ranked Buckeyes and they'll be revved up and focused for this revenge war. Dating back to 1980, the Wolverines have enjoyed tremendous success in this series posting a strong 17-4 SU record. However, it should be noted that the last five games in Madison have been extremely competitive. The Maize and Blue are just 3-2 SU in their last five trips to Cheese Country and the average victory for either team in those battles has come by just 4.8 points per game! Technically speaking, this is a great spot for the Badgers. Underdogs in last home game sets that boast a won/loss percentage of .675 or better are a powerful 17-7 ATS provided they enter off a straight up loss. If our host is matched up against an opponent that is not off a straight up win of 18 points or more, this system tightens up to a beautiful 9-0 ATS! Wisky fits this general situation and the tightener perfectly. As a road favorite battling a foe that carries a won/loss percentage of .675 or higher, the Maize and Blue turn black-and-blue notching a dismal 6-14 ATS record. In revenge and off a hard-fought straight up loss in Columbus, the Badgers will take care of business. Take Wisconsin.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 2:15pm -
0 likes
Dr. Bob
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Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
***Air Force (-3.0) 27 NOTRE DAME 14
11:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I resisted going against Notre Dame last week in a Best Bet on Navy because I thought perhaps the horrible Irish passing attack would have some success against the nation’s worst pass defense. That was certainly not the case, as Notre Dame averaged a shameful 3.4 yards per pass play and 4.2 yards per play against a Navy defense that would allow 8.8 yppp and 7.0 yppl on the road to an average offensive team. For the season the Irish have averaged a pathetic 3.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. That is the worst offensive rating of any team in recent years (worse than some bad Sun Belt teams even) and a solid Air Force defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team) isn’t likely to surrender much real estate to the Irish in this game. Notre Dame does have a solid defensive unit that has yielded 5.1 yppl to teams that wold combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit, but they’re not that much better than an Air Force attack that has been 0.3 yppl better than average so far this season. My math model gives Air Force a 58.9% chance of covering (based on the historical predictability of my model) and the Falcons also apply to a 66-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Notre Dame’s only win this season came in a game against UCLA in which the Bruins’ 4th string quarterback turned the ball over 7 times while Notre Dame suffered no turnovers. In other words, Notre Dame is just no good enough to win a football game unless they get very lucky. The math and the strong indicator make Air Force a 63.8% play at -3 points and I’ll take Air Force in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less, 4-Stars at -2 ½ points (at -115 odds or less) and for 2- Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.
2 Star Selection
**VIRGINIA TECH (-6.0) 27 Florida St. 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Virginia Tech has a history of playing well at home against other good teams, as evidenced by their 37-14-1 ATS record in home games when not favored by more than 14 points. The Hokies are fortunate to be facing Florida State with Drew Weatherford at quarterback instead of Xavier Lee. Lee was better than Weatherford last season and he was better than Weatherford this season. Lee has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play on his 130 pass plays this season despite facing teams that would only allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Weatherford, meanwhile, is as mediocre as ever, averaging just 6.3 yppp on 203 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB. Weatherford doesn’t throw as many interceptions as Lee does because he doesn’t throw the ball down the field, but Lee is the better overall quarterback even with the interceptions factored in. Florida State has been just average overall on offense this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Seminoles are 0.4 yppl worse than average with Weatherford at quarterback and they won’t have many scoring opportunities against a very good Virginia Tech defense that has yielded just 4.4 yppl this season to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team. Only very good offensive teams LSU and Clemson have scored more than 14 points against the Hokies and I don’t expect Florida State to reach that number today. The problem with Virginia Tech is an offense that has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season. Pocket passer Sean Glennon has hit his stride the last 3 weeks after struggling early in the year. Glennon was replaced by freshman scrambler Tyrod Taylor after their loss to LSU, and while Taylor’s passing numbers are not nearly as good as Glennon’s his scrambling (40 rushing plays for 336 yards) makes up for the difference. Florida State’s defensive weakness is pass coverage, so I suspect Glennon will get the nod in this game – although it doesn’t matter much. Overall, the Seminoles are only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively, allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Virginia Tech’s defense is 1.7 yppl better than Florida State’s offense while the Seminoles only have a 0.8 yppl advantage over the Hokies’ attack. Virginia Tech also has better special teams - although being without return star Eddie Royal is worth just over 1 ½ points - and my math model favors the Hokies by 10 ½ points in this game. Florida State is coming off their upset win over Boston College (a product of a +3 turnover margin) but that win sets them up in a very negative 9-42-1 ATS subset of a 54-120-2 ATS road letdown situation. Frank Beamer has never beaten Florida State, but this is the first time since 1989 that he gets the Seminoles in Blacksburg and I expect a fired up Hokies team today. I’ll take Virginia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**SOUTHERN MISS (-15.5) 42 Memphis 18
01:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Memphis is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation and the Tigers certainly won’t be able to stop the running of Damion Fletcher (990 yards at 5.4 ypr) and quarterback Jeremy Young (6.0 yards per rushing play). Memphis has allowed 5.9 yards per rushing play for the season (against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team) and the Tigers have been especially porous the last 3 weeks since injuries have hit their linebacking corps. Quinton McCrary missed week 8 against Rice and was out again last week while LB Winston Bowen has missed the last two weeks and is out for the season. In those past 3 games the Tigers have allowed 8.0 yprp (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp) and last week, the only game in which both linebackers were out, the they allowed a preposterous 491 rushing yards at 11.2 yprp to a mediocre East Carolina rushing attack. McCrary may return this week from his injured toe, but he won’t be enough to stop the Southern Miss rushing attack. The Memphis offense is 0.2 yppl worse than average with starting quarterback Martin Hankins in the game but Southern Miss is solid defensively for a CUSA team (they rate as average on a national scale), so the Tigers will have a tough time keeping up with what their defense gives up. My math model favors Southern Miss by 23 ½ points and the Eagles apply to a very good 53-14-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation following last week’s 37-7 win over UAB in Jeremy Young’s first game back from 4 game absence. Memphis has a history of playing better off a loss than off a win under coach West and they’re 9-1 ATS as an underdog of more than 7 points after a conference loss. That team trend is not nearly as strong as the general situation favoring Southern Miss but it will keep me from making this a 3-Star Best Bet. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 or less.
2 Star Selection
**Florida (-6.5) 37 SOUTH CAROLINA 23
04:45 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I’m sure Steve Spurrier would love to beat his old team, but the Gamecocks just aren’t as good as the Gators and Florida applies to a very strong 66-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while South Carolina applies to a negative 22-67-2 ATS situation. Florida’s offense is the best in the nation, averaging 7.0 yards per play against 8 Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average attack. South Carolina’s defense is very good at defending the pass, but Urban Meyer is smart enough to take advantage of a soft defensive front that has allowed 5.5 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average defensive team. Arkansas ripped through that defense last week for 541 rushing yards at 9.3 yprp and the Gamecocks could be without leading tackler Emanuel Cook, who sprained his ankle early in the 2nd half last week, and starting CB Captain Munnerlyn (more likely to miss with a more severe ankle sprain). Overall South Carolina is 0.4 yppl better than average defensively and they are at a huge disadvantage against Florida’s multi-faceted attack. South Carolina’s offense has been just 0.1 yppl better than average this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they won’t be able to run against the Gators, who have allowed just 3.8 yprp this season. The Gators have some trouble against the pass (6.3 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average team), but Gamecocks’ quarterback Blake Mitchell has actually been worse than average throwing the ball this season despite playing a bit better than average the last two weeks since getting his starting spot back. These teams both have a weakness on defense and rate about the same overall on that side of the ball, but Florida is MUCH better offensively and the Gators have better special teams. My math model favors Florida by 11 points and the technical analysis also favors the Gators in this game. The only negative is Florida’s 1-10-1 ATS mark as a regular season favorite away from home under coach Meyer, but Spurrier is just 2-5 ATS as a home dog at South Carolina and the angles are much more significant than the team trend against Florida. I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
TCU 21 BYU (-7.0) 23
06:00 PM Pacific, 08-Nov-07
TCU has certainly been a disappointment this season, but the Horned Frogs are not easy to beat with a defense that goes from very good to great with star DE Tommy Blake back in the starting lineup. Blake has only played in 4 games this season and the Horned Frogs have allowed 4.3 yards per play in those 4 games (to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team). Blake had missed 4 consecutive games prior to starting last week against New Mexico and TCU dominated a decent Lobos offense in allowing just 119 yards, 2.0 yppl and 0 points. BYU is only 0.3 yppl better than average offensively (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), so the Cougars are not going to have an easy time moving the football. TCU’s below average attack (5.0 yppl with starting QB Dalton in the game, against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) will also struggle against a BYU defense that has yielded just 4.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Overall, TCU has a 1.0 yppl edge on BYU’s offense while the Cougars have a 1.0 yppl edge on the Frogs’ attack. TCU has the edge in special teams and I rate the Horned Frogs as the better team overall in this game. I would have considered TCU as a possible Best Bet in this game if not for the fact that Thursday night home favorites of 2 points or more on a winning streak are 39-16-2 ATS over the years. I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Indiana (-2.0) 33 NORTHWESTERN 26
09:00 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Indiana is certainly not a great team, but the Hoosiers are a better than average team and they should be able to beat a sub-par Northwestern team today. Indiana is 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but they have an advantage over a Northwestern defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defense. Indiana also has a slight advantage when the Wildcats have the ball, as Northwestern is 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively while the Hoosiers are 0.1 yppl better than average on defense. Indiana also has an advantage in projected turnover with Kellen Lewis and his 9 interceptions in 10 games going up against Northwestern’s C.J. Bacher, who has thrown 14 picks in 10 games. The big difference in these teams is special teams, as the Hoosiers are better in all facets of special teams and have one of the most valuable place kickers in college football in Austin Starr (his kicking has been 1.4 points per game better than an average kicker, which is the best in the nation). My math model favors Indiana by 7 points and I’ll consider Indiana a Strong Opinion at -3 or less and I’d take Indiana in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.
Strong Opinion
TENNESSEE (pk) 35 Arkansas 30
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Arkansas won for me last week at home against South Carolina but that win sets up the Razorbacks in a very negative 93-185-5 ATS road letdown situation while Tennessee applies to a very good 132-50-6 ATS home momentum situation. Those situations combine to give Tennessee a very profitable 58.5% chance of covering at a fair line but the fair line on this game is Arkansas by 2 ½ points. The Volunteers still have a 54.1% chance of covering at pick, which is good enough to make them a Strong Opinion (it’s 55.6% at +1). I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at pick or better and I’d make the Volunteers a 2- Star Best Bet at +2 points or more (57.8% chance of covering).
Strong Opinion
MISSISSIPPI ST. 22 Alabama (-4.5) 21
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Mississippi State has already upset Auburn and Kentucky this season on the road and the Bulldogs have had an extra week to prepare for this game against an Alabama team that may be emotionally drained after blowing a lead last week to LSU. Teams coming off close losses to superior teams often suffer a letdown the next week while dwelling on what could have been and Mississippi State is not a team that Alabama will have an easy time getting up for. The Crimson Tide apply to a negative 64-145-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s close loss and Bama also applies to a negative 97-173-11 ATS road favorite situation. Mississippi State is good enough defensively to compete with Alabama in this game, as the Bulldogs are 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) while Alabama is 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season and are now even worse without two starting offensive linemen and their #2 running back likely to sit out their 3rd game due to suspension. Mississippi State’s offense is 0.8 yppl worse than average for the season and also 0.8 yppl worse than average with Wesley Carroll as the starting quarterback, but the Bulldogs are improved with Carroll, who has not thrown an interception in 137 pass attempts (the other quarterbacks threw 11 picks in the first 6 games). Alabama is good but not great defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team), so Miss State should have a few scoring opportunities. Mississippi State is only 7-13 ATS at home under coach Croom, but they’re 3-0 ATS as a home underdog after a bye week, so the Bulldogs should be ready to play. My math model favors Alabama by 5 points, so the line is fair, but I’d like to have some line value on my side. The situation is certainly strong enough against Alabama to consider Mississippi State a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more.
Strong Opinion
TULSA (pk) 41 Houston 35
12:00 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Tulsa has been hurt by turnovers this season (-11 in TO margin), which partly explains their 3-6 ATS record. However, the Golden Hurricane are a better team than Houston from the line of scrimmage and should win this game. Tulsa has been fantastic offensively this season, averaging 7.0 yards per play with starting quarterback Paul Smith on the field, against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Smith has been particularly good in averaging 8.4 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback) and he’ll feast on a porous Houston pass defense that’s allowed 6.6 yppp this season despite facing teams that would combine to average only 5.4 yppp against an average defensive team. Overall, Houston rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively and Tulsa has a 1.4 yppl advantage when they have the ball. Houston’s offense ahs an advantage too, as the Cougars are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively (6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl) while Tulsa rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average with top defensive back CB Roberts playing (the secondary was torched by UTEP when Roberts was out). Houston’s offensive advantage of 0.9 yppl isn’t as much as Tulsa’s 1.4 yppl advantage and the difference is even more with this game being played at Tulsa. Houston does have an advantage in projected turnovers and 3 points in special teams but my math model still favors Tulsa by 3 ½ points in this game. Tulsa applies to a solid 105-50-1 ATS home momentum situation, but the Hurricane doesn’t apply to the best part of that angle, so I won’t make Tulsa a Best Bet at the current line. If Houston becomes a favorite or pick then the Cougars would apply to a negative 93-185-5 ATS situation and that would certainly be enough, combined with the extra line value, to make Tulsa a Best Bet. I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at -1 or pick and I’d take Tulsa in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 2:15pm -
0 likes
Private Players (Big East GOW)
Cincy
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 2:16pm -
0 likes
Doc's
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5 Unit Play. #27 Take Michigan -2 ½ over Wisconsin (Saturday 12:00 pm ESPN) Never like to go against Wisconsin @ Camp Randall, but feel we are getting a couple of points, since I felt the opening line should have been five. With this much discrepancy, I have to take a serious look at the roadster. The injuries are starting to take its toll on the Badgers, as DT Chapman is out, RT VanderHeuvel is doubtful, and CB Langford is out as well. RB Hill is questionable and many thought he would play last week, but choose not too. As for the Wolverines, they continue to get better with age, having not lost a game since Oregon on September 8th. They have a strong defense in which Wisconsin will struggle to move the football all day long. They will put pressure on Donovan and the Badgers inability to run the football is a real cause for problem. Look for Seniors Henne and Hart to make the difference as they want to enter their annual meeting with Ohio State undefeated in the Big Ten. This will be a low scoring game that the Wolves control from the onset. Michigan 20, Wisconsin 10.
4 Unit Play. #28 Take Under 46 ½ in Michigan @ Wisconsin (Saturday 12:00 pm ESPN) The Badgers are really banged up and Michigan still likes to pound the football with RB Hart. Michigan will control this game from the onset and we collect big with a side and total. Michigan 20, Wisconsin 10.
4 Unit Play. #36 Take Mississippi State +5 over Alabama (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN Gameplan) Bulldogs have always been a dangerous team @ Wade Stadium and are coming off a bye week facing Alabama. The Tide is coming off a disappointing game to LSU last Saturday losing, 41-34. That being said that game should not have been that close, as the Tide were out gained, 475-254. The Bulldogs have held Bama without an offensive touchdown the past two years making the points very attractive in 2007, call the upset. Mississippi State 24, Alabama 21.
6 Unit Play. #55 Take Arizona State -7 over UCLA (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) PAC-10 Game of the Year. The Sun Devils lost their first game of the season last Saturday in Eugene; however, they did out gain the Ducks and had their chances. Now they are back on the road again in Los Angeles, a very laid back environment @ the Rose Bowl. They will face the Bruins, a team riddled with injuries and a Coach on the hot seat. The UCLA defense has been torched the last two weeks, giving up 61 combined points to the two bottom feeder PAC-10 teams, Washington State and Arizona. The Sun Devils still have a chance to return to the Rose Bowl with a win here and with a bye week looming, look for Coach Erickson to pour it on. UCLA season is coming apart and this will be the icing on the cake, as the Devils prevail in a big rout. Arizona State 35, UCLA 10.
4 Unit Play. #59 Take Florida State +6 over Virginia Tech (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) This game reminds me a lot of last week’s game that they Seminoles had with Boston College. FSU still has a rock solid defense to keep the scoring at a minimum, but is finally starting to see a high powered offense that resembled their strong teams in the 1990s. QB Weatherford had been benched early this season, but has came back playing exceptional football and now there is no question this is his job. Florida State won at Boston College and Boston College has already won at Virginia Tech. Coach Frank Beamer has never beaten Florida State and in fact the Hokies last win over the Seminoles came in 1975. Bowden and company upset Tech in 2005 despite being a 14-point underdog and expect a similar situation to occur on Saturday, although a Seminole victory would certainly not surprise this write. Florida State 24, Virginia Tech 20.
5 Unit Play. #79 Take Oklahoma State +6 over Kansas (Saturday 8:00 pm ABC) No question, Jawhawks are on a roll, but I was not too impressed with their performance last week against a team that has thrown in the towel. The Cowboys have an offense that can score points and they are not afraid of anyone in the country. They will be playing their third straight home game and last one of the year, so they will want to give their fans something to remember them by. The Hawks have not played anybody during the non-conference season and don’t play Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech in conference. OK State’s powerful running attack will make the difference and that will make the difference. Oklahoma State 35, Kansas 30.
4 Unit Play. #91 Take Central Florida -21 over UAB (Saturday 7:30 pm CSTV) Two teams going in different directions here, as the Knights still have visions of winning the C-USA title and the Blazers cannot wait for this season to end. The Knights should be able to control this game on the ground and wear down a UAB team that has nothing left. UAB did not have much talent to start the season and what little they had is now gone. It is a simple rout and that is all there is too it. Central Florida 48, UAB10.
3 Unit Play. #110 Take Green Bay -6 over Minnesota (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The NFC North Division appears to be going through Green Bay and the Packers look to sweep the Vikings yet again. Green Bay has won three straight games in this series and many of them have not been close. They will focus in on RB Peterson and make some other Vikings beat them. The Vikings defense is solid against the run but terrible against the pass and thus QB Favre should have a field day. Minnesota still does not have a quarterback and that does not bode well in the cold environment of Lambeau Field. If the Packers do not beat themselves by allowing the Vikings to score on defense, they will cruise to a double-digit victory. Green Bay 27, Minnesota 13.
3 Unit Play. #117 Take Cleveland +9 ½ over Pittsburgh (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Cleveland Browns have been the surprise team in the AFC and look to tie Pittsburgh for the division lead in the AFC North. Cleveland can throw the football with QB Anderson. Cleveland has not had much success in this series, but they will have revenge on their mind from an embarrassing performance in week one of the season. Pittsburgh has played a weak schedule to account for their success and already has losses to Arizona and Denver. This game will be much closer then what the experts think and Pittsburgh playing on a short week will come up flat. Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 24.
4 Unit Play. #128 Take New York Giants +1 ½ over Dallas (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The NFC East is up for grabs on Sunday when the New York Football Giants try and even up this series at one game apiece. The home team has dominated this series, winning 22 of the last 33 meetings ATS (one push). When these teams met earlier in the season, the Giants were banged up on defense, but they will be coming off a bye after their victory over Miami in London. The Giants have a strong pass defense that will be able to pressure QB Romo. The Cowboys have played a weak schedule to amass most of their victories in 2007 and their luck is about to run out on Sunday, as the Giants win this game by a botched field goal and move into first place in the East. New York 27, Dallas 24.
We received a few complaints this week, stating that we were not truthful with our NFL selections recently. I can assure you that is not the case and we never advertise any streaks that are not true. If we did, we would not have any loyal customers. I have said it before and will continue to say that we are always a lot stronger in college then in the NFL. If we have a good week in the NFL, we will certainly not be putting comments like, "We own the NFL" and so forth. I would encourage you to read my article (4th Down and Inches) each week, as I personally discuss the highs and lows of the previous weekend.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 2:16pm -
0 likes
Robert Ferringo
COLLEGE SELECTIONS
2.5-Unit Play. Take #206 Florida Atlantic (-7) over Arkansas State (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
Arkansas State hasn’t performed well against the top of the Sun Belt this year, getting outscored 51-7 by Troy and MTSU. ASU’s QB is 50-50 to play, and even if he is under center we have to wonder about his effectiveness. I’m looking for a big bounceback game for FAU in their final home game of the season.
4-Unit Play. Take #151 Auburn (+2) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
The Bulldogs have peaked and I think that Auburn is the stronger, more battle-tested team here. Auburn is 7-0 ATS as an underdog and 14-4-1 ATS after a win by 20 points or more. Georgia is 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
5-Unit Play. Take #118 Miami (-3.5) over Virginia (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 10)
I think that the Cavaliers are all out of miracles and that they are going to get ambushed in the last Hurricanes game in the Orange Bowl. This is a special game for Miami and I think they’ll play inspired ball, much like they did against Texas A&M. Virginia is just 5-13 ATS as a road underdog.
4-Unit Play. Take #116 Purdue (-4) over Michigan State (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 10)
The Spartans just had their hearts ripped out by Michigan and I think this is a letdown spot. They were actually still talking about the loss to Big Blue on Tuesday so that tells me they aren’t focused on a dangerous Purdue team. The home team is 8-1 ATS in this series and Michigan State is 9-24 ATS following a straight-up loss.
4-Unit Play. Take #119 Wake Forest (+9) over Clemson (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 10)
Underdogs have been a solid play in the ACC all season and I think that this is a few too any points to give the defending conference champions. Clemson has been beating cream puffs and they are 2-6 ATS at home and against teams with a winning record. The Deacons are 12-2 ATS against teams above .500 and are 11-5 ATS on the road.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 2:17pm -
0 likes
College football trends to ponder for Week 10
-- Visitor covered six of last eight NC State-UNC games.
-- Duke covered three of last 14 as a home underdog.
-- Urban Meyer is 1-8 as a road favorite at Florida.
-- Southern Miss covered 13 of last 15 against Memphis.
-- Visitor is 10-3 vs spread in Oregon State-Washington tilts
-- Visitor is 11-4 vs spread in Georgia-Auburn series.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:23pm -
0 likes
NCAAF
Dunkel Index
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 9
Game 109-110: Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 73.925; Eastern Michigan 74.802
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 1; 66
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 4 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+4 1/2); Over
Game 111-112: Rutgers at Army
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 95.161; Army 73.383
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 22; 49
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 18; 48
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-18); Over
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 10
Game 113-114: Indiana at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 85.680; Northwestern 87.848
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 2; 57
Vegas Line: Indiana by 2; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+2); Under
Game 115-116: Michigan State at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 95.546; Purdue 95.557
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: Purdue by 4 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+4 1/2); Under
Game 117-118: Virginia at Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 92.735; Miami (FL) 91.879
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+3 1/2); Under
Game 119-120: Wake Forest at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 97.188; Clemson 103.125
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 6; 55
Vegas Line: Clemson by 9; 51
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+9); Over
Game 121-122: Penn State at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 101.407; Temple 66.545
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 35; 42
Vegas Line: Penn State by 23 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-23 1/2); Under
Game 123-124: Georgia Tech at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 95.050; Duke 77.377
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 18; 49
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 13 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-13 1/2); Over
Game 125-126: South Florida at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 96.426; Syracuse 78.123
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 18; 52
Vegas Line: South Florida by 16 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-16 1/2); Under
Game 127-128: Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 88.783; Vanderbilt 93.357
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 4 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 4; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+4); Under
Game 129-130: Connecticut at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 100.970; Cincinnati 97.546
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 3 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6 1/2); Under
Game 131-132: Colorado at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 91.462; Iowa State 90.821
Dunkel Line: Even; 58
Vegas Line: Colorado by 6 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+6 1/2); Over
Game 133-134: Air Force at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 90.592; Notre Dame 92.715
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 2; 40
Vegas Line: Air Force by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+2 1/2); Under
Game 135-136: Colorado State at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 83.095; New Mexico 85.214
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 2; 44
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 9 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+9 1/2); Under
Game 137-138: Houston at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 86.601; Tulsa 82.949
Dunkel Line: Houston by 4; 69
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 1 1/2; 77 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1 1/2);
Game 139-140: Rice at SMU
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 75.941; SMU 72.518
Dunkel Line: Rice by 3 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: SMU by 6 1/2; 72 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+6 1/2); Under
Game 141-142: Boise State at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 101.524; Utah State 70.380
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 31; 66
Vegas Line: Boise State by 24; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-24); Over
Game 143-144: Wyoming at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 82.698; Utah 98.201
Dunkel Line: Utah by 15 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Utah by 13 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-13 1/2); Over
Game 145-146: Arizona State at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 105.145; UCLA 89.323
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 16; 48
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 6; 52
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-6); Under
Game 147-148: Alabama at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 95.134; Mississippi State 97.741
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 2 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Alabama by 4 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+4 1/2); Over
Game 149-150: Arkansas at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 95.379; Tennessee 99.560
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 59
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 1; 63
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+1); Under
Game 151-152: Auburn at Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 99.447; Georgia 97.566
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Georgia by 1 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+1 1/2); Over
Game 153-154: Stanford at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 83.741; Washington State 87.157
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 3 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Washington State by 10 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+10 1/2); Under
Game 155-156: Kansas State at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 97.626; Nebraska 84.192
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 13 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 7 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-7 1/2); Under
Game 157-158: Minnesota at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 77.491; Iowa 91.414
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 14; 45
Vegas Line: Iowa by 14 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+14 1/2); Under
Game 159-160: Texas A&M at Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 90.054; Missouri 116.319
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 26; 59
Vegas Line: Missouri by 17 1/2; 62
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-17 1/2); Under
Game 161-162: Michigan at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 102.184; Wisconsin 96.560
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 5 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Michigan by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-2 1/2); Over
Game 163-164: Illinois at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 91.097; Ohio State 115.533
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 24 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 14 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-14 1/2); Under
Game 165-166: Florida State at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 93.572; Virginia Tech 105.982
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 12 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 5; 40
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-5); Over
Game 167-168: New Mexico State at San Jose State
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 64.844; San Jose State 76.786
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 12; 52
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 3 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (-3 1/2); Under
Game 169-170: Kent at Northern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Kent 69.244; Northern Illinois 19.191
Dunkel Line: Even; 54
Vegas Line: Kent by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+3 1/2); Over
Game 171-172: East Carolina at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 85.715; Marshall 74.702
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 11; 62
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 7; 65
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-7); Under
Game 173-174: Memphis at Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 72.932; Southern Mississippi 84.514
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 11 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 15 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+15 1/2); Under
Game 175-176: Boston College at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 95.552; Maryland 96.170
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Boston College by 6; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+6); Under
Game 177-178: Texas Tech at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 98.411; Texas 99.560
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 57
Vegas Line: Texas by 6 1/2; 65
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (+6 1/2); Under
Game 179-180: Baylor at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 71.645; Oklahoma 112.151
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 40 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 38; 56
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-38); Under
Game 181-182: North Carolina at North Carolina State
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 87.106; North Carolina State 89.817
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 2 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+3 1/2); Under
Game 183-184: Kansas at Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 107.806; Oklahoma State 96.840
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 11; 60
Vegas Line: Kansas by 5 1/2; 66
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-5 1/2); Under
Game 185-186: UTEP at Tulane
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 80.706; Tulane 70.936
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 10; 66
Vegas Line: UTEP by 4 1/2; 72
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-4 1/2); Under
Game 187-188: Florida at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 98.605; South Carolina 99.438
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 1; 62
Vegas Line: Florida by 6 1/2; 59
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+6 1/2); Over
Game 189-190: Central Florida at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 90.529; UAB 64.097
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 26 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 20 1/2; 62
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-20 1/2); Under
Game 191-192: Louisiana Tech at LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 70.815; LSU 110.376
Dunkel Line: LSU by 39 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: LSU by 35 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-35 1/2); Under
Game 193-194: USC at California
Dunkel Ratings: USC 97.188; California 98.802
Dunkel Line: California by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: USC by 4; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (+4); Under
Game 195-196: Washington at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 93.234; Oregon State 93.093
Dunkel Line: Even; 55
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 197-198: San Diego State at UNLV
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 83.012; UNLV 76.140
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 7; 44
Vegas Line: UNLV by 2 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+2 1/2); Under
Game 199-200: Fresno State at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 86.565; Hawaii 102.405
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 16; 68
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 18; 72
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+18); Under
Game 201-202: UL Lafayette at Middle Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: UL Lafayette 59.550; Middle Tennessee State 84.799
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 25; 66
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 14; 62
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-14); Over
Game 203-204: Navy at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 84.058; North Texas 59.632
Dunkel Line: Navy by 24 1/2; 67
Vegas Line: Navy by 15 1/2; 73
Dunkel Pick: Navy (-15 1/2); Under
Game 205-206: Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 73.850; Florida Atlantic 75.360
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 7; 56
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+7); Under
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:24pm -
0 likes
NCAAF
Long Sheet
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Friday, November 9
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BOWLING GREEN (5 - 4) at E MICHIGAN (3 - 7) - 11/9/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 1-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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RUTGERS (5 - 4) at ARMY (3 - 6) - 11/9/2007, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Saturday, November 10
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INDIANA (6 - 4) at NORTHWESTERN (5 - 5) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MICHIGAN ST (5 - 5) at PURDUE (7 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
PURDUE is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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VIRGINIA (8 - 2) at MIAMI (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
VIRGINIA is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WAKE FOREST (6 - 3) at CLEMSON (7 - 2) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WAKE FOREST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 1-1 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PENN ST (7 - 3) at TEMPLE (3 - 6) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GEORGIA TECH (5 - 4) at DUKE (1 -
- 11/10/2007, 1:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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S FLORIDA (6 - 3) at SYRACUSE (2 - 7) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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KENTUCKY (6 - 3) at VANDERBILT (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 2-0 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 2-0 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CONNECTICUT (8 - 1) at CINCINNATI (7 - 2) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO (5 - 5) at IOWA ST (2 -
- 11/10/2007, 12:30 PM There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
IOWA ST is 1-1 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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AIR FORCE (7 - 3) at NOTRE DAME (1 -
- 11/10/2007, 2:30 PM Top Trends for this game.
NOTRE DAME is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
NOTRE DAME is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO ST (1 -
at NEW MEXICO (6 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 3:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (6 - 3) at TULSA (6 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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RICE (2 - 7) at SMU (1 -
- 11/10/2007, 3:00 PM There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 1-1 against the spread versus RICE over the last 3 seasons
SMU is 1-1 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BOISE ST (8 - 1) at UTAH ST (0 - 9) - 11/10/2007, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 69-41 ATS (+23.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 45-23 ATS (+19.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 47-18 ATS (+27.2 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 42-17 ATS (+23.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BOISE ST is 69-41 ATS (+23.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 2-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WYOMING (5 - 4) at UTAH (6 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 1-1 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 1-1 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA ST (8 - 1) at UCLA (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALABAMA (6 - 3) at MISSISSIPPI ST (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS (6 - 3) at TENNESSEE (6 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AUBURN (7 - 3) at GEORGIA (7 - 2) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AUBURN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
GEORGIA is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 1-1 against the spread versus AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 1-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STANFORD (3 - 6) at WASHINGTON ST (3 - 6) - 11/10/2007, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON ST is 1-1 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS ST (5 - 4) at NEBRASKA (4 - 6) - 11/10/2007, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEBRASKA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
KANSAS ST is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
NEBRASKA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
NEBRASKA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEBRASKA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEBRASKA is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
NEBRASKA is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (1 - 9) at IOWA (5 - 5) - 11/10/2007, 12:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
IOWA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA is 1-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 1-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS A&M (6 - 4) at MISSOURI (8 - 1) - 11/10/2007, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
MISSOURI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
MISSOURI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS A&M is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS A&M is 1-0 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MICHIGAN (8 - 2) at WISCONSIN (7 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-1 straight up against MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ILLINOIS (7 - 3) at OHIO ST (10 - 0) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLORIDA ST (6 - 3) at VIRGINIA TECH (7 - 2) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 29-9 ATS (+19.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 1-0 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW MEXICO ST (4 - 6) at SAN JOSE ST (3 - 6) - 11/10/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SAN JOSE ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KENT ST (3 - 6) at N ILLINOIS (1 -
- 11/10/2007, 4:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
KENT ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against KENT ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E CAROLINA (6 - 4) at MARSHALL (1 -
- 11/10/2007, 4:30 PM Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
E CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
E CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MEMPHIS (4 - 5) at SOUTHERN MISS (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SOUTHERN MISS is 1-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
SOUTHERN MISS is 1-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOSTON COLLEGE (8 - 1) at MARYLAND (4 - 5) - 11/10/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS TECH (7 - 3) at TEXAS (8 - 2) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BAYLOR (3 - 7) at OKLAHOMA (8 - 1) - 11/10/2007, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 48-73 ATS (-32.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BAYLOR is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
BAYLOR is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 26-49 ATS (-27.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BAYLOR is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BAYLOR is 48-74 ATS (-33.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
OKLAHOMA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 1-1 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N CAROLINA (3 - 6) at NC STATE (4 - 5) - 11/10/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS (9 - 0) at OKLAHOMA ST (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 44-74 ATS (-37.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
KANSAS is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
KANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
KANSAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
KANSAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf this season.
KANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
KANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTEP (4 - 5) at TULANE (2 - 7) - 11/10/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
TULANE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TULANE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TULANE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
TULANE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TULANE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTEP is 2-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
UTEP is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLORIDA (6 - 3) at S CAROLINA (6 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
S CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
S CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UCF (6 - 3) at UAB (2 - 7) - 11/10/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
UAB is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 2-0 against the spread versus UAB over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 2-0 straight up against UAB over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOUISIANA TECH (4 - 5) at LSU (8 - 1) - 11/10/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LSU is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
LSU is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USC (7 - 2) at CALIFORNIA (6 - 3) - 11/10/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 2-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
USC is 2-0 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON (3 - 6) at OREGON ST (5 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 10:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 2-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN DIEGO ST (3 - 5) at UNLV (2 - 7) - 11/10/2007, 11:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
UNLV is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
UNLV is 1-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FRESNO ST (6 - 3) at HAWAII (8 - 0) - 11/10/2007, 11:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAWAII is 1-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
HAWAII is 1-1 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA LAFAYETTE (1 -
at MIDDLE TENN ST (5 - 5) - 11/10/2007, 3:30 PM Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-1 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-1 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NAVY (5 - 4) at NORTH TEXAS (1 - 7) - 11/10/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 96-65 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
NAVY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 43-18 ATS (+23.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NAVY is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NAVY is 96-65 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 49-19 ATS (+28.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 49-19 ATS (+28.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NORTH TEXAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS ST (4 - 5) at FLA ATLANTIC (4 - 4) - 11/10/2007, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 straight up against ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:24pm -
0 likes
NCAAF
Short Sheet
Friday, November 9th
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan, 7:30 EST ESPNU
Bowling Green: 4-13 ATS as a favorite
Eastern Michigan: 6-1 ATS off a loss by 21+ points
Rutgers at Army, 8:00 EST ESPN2
Rutgers: 6-0 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Army: 1-5 ATS as a home underdog
Saturday, November 10th
Indiana at Northwestern, 12:00 EST ESPNC
Indiana: 9-2 Over off a home win by 17+ points
Northwestern: 6-0 ATS off a conference home loss
Michigan State at Purdue, 12:00 EST
Michigan State: 4-16 ATS off a conference game
Purdue: 7-1 ATS in November
(TC) Virginia at Miami FL, 7:15 EST ESPN2
Virginia: 6-17 ATS away in November
Miami FL: 15-3 Under in home games
Wake Forest at Clemson, 12:00 EST ESPN2
Wake Forest: 9-0 Under off a loss by 6 points or less
Clemson: 10-3 ATS off a win by 35+ points
Penn State at Temple, 12:00 EST ESPNU
Penn State: 11-2 Under off a SU home win / ATS loss
Temple: 3-10 ATS as a home underdog of 21.5 to 28 points
(TC) Georgia Tech at Duke, 1:00 EST
Georgia Tech: 16-6 ATS after playing a Thursday game
Duke: 3-12 ATS in home games
South Florida at Syracuse, 12:00 EST
South Florida: 7-0 Under off 3+ conference games
Syracuse: 18-7 ATS off BB Unders
(TC) Kentucky at Vanderbilt, 2:00 EST
Kentucky: 5-15 ATS off BB games allowing 31+ points
Vanderbilt: 6-1 Over in November
(TC) Connecticut at Cincinnati, 3:30 EST ESPNU
Connecticut: 9-0 Under after scoring 37+ points
Cincinnati: 11-2 ATS after forcing 5+ turnovers
(TC) Colorado at Iowa State, 12:30 EST
Colorado: 10-0 Under after committing 3+ turnovers
Iowa State: 1-5 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games
Air Force at Notre Dame, 2:30 EST NBC
Air Force: 24-10 ATS away off a home win
Notre Dame: 7-1 Under as an underdog
Colorado State at New Mexico, 3:00 EST
Colorado State: 14-4 ATS off ATS losses in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
New Mexico: 0-6 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Houston at Tulsa, 3:00 EST
Houston: 1-6 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Tulsa: 8-2 Under off a conference win by 10+ points
Rice at SMU, 3:00 EST
Rice: 17-4 Over vs. conference opponents
SMU: 5-14 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win
Boise State at Utah State, 3:05 EST
Boise State: 39-11 ATS off BB conference games
Utah State: 0-6 ATS off BB games scoring 7 or less first-half points
Wyoming at Utah, 3:30 EST CSTV
Wyoming: 1-10 ATS off 3+ conference games
Utah: 22-9 ATS off a bye week
Arizona State at UCLA, 3:30 EST ABC
Arizona State: 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
UCLA: 8-1 ATS at home off a conference game
(TC) Alabama at Mississippi State, 12:30 EST
Alabama: 5-1 Over vs. conference opponents
Mississippi State: 2-12 ATS off BB Unders
(TC) Arkansas at Tennessee, 12:30 EST
Arkansas: 9-2 Under off BB Overs
Tennessee: 6-0 ATS off BB home games
Auburn at Georgia, 3:30 EST CBS
Auburn: 6-0 ATS as an underdog
Georgia: 2-8 ATS off 3+ wins
(TC) Stanford at Washington State, 6:30 EST
Stanford: 4-12 ATS vs. conference opponents
Washington State: 13-4 ATS off BB Unders
(TC) Kansas State at Nebraska, 12:30 EST VER
Kansas State: 30-14 ATS off a conference loss
Nebraska: 1-6 ATS after allowing 37+ points
(TC) Minnesota at Iowa, 12:00 EST
Minnesota: 19-7 Over in November
Iowa: 16-6 ATS at home in November
(TC) Texas A&M at Missouri, 12:30 EST FSN
Texas A&M: 8-22 ATS as a road underdog
Missouri: 8-2 ATS off BB conference wins
(TC) Michigan at Wisconsin, 12:00 EST ESPN
Michigan: 11-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
Wisconsin: 1-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Illinois at Ohio State, 3:30 EST ABC
Illinois: 9-2 Under off an Over
Ohio State: 17-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Florida State at Virginia Tech, 3:30 EST ABC
Florida State: 4-15 ATS away off 3+ conference games
Virginia Tech: 10-1 ATS off a win as an underdog
New Mexico State at San Jose State, 4:00 EST
New Mexico State: 2-11 ATS off a home game
San Jose State: 20-8 ATS as a favorite
Kent State at Northern Illinois, 4:00 EST
Kent State: 2-11 ATS off a home game
Northern Illinois: 11-3 ATS off BB ATS losses
East Carolina at Marshall, 4:30 EST
East Carolina: 9-2 ATS in road games
Marshall: 3-11 ATS as an underdog
Memphis at Southern Miss, 4:30 EST
Memphis: 4-13 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points
Southern Miss: 7-1 Over after allowing 14 points or less
(TC) Boston College at Maryland, 8:00 EST ABC
Boston College: 7-1 Under as a road favorite
Maryland: 15-4 ATS at home off a conference road loss
(TC) Texas Tech at Texas, 3:30 EST ABC
Texas Tech: 0-7 ATS away off a conference win
Texas: 11-2 ATS at home off 3+ conference wins
(TC) Baylor at Oklahoma, 6:30 EST FSN
Baylor: 1-10 ATS off BB conference games
Oklahoma: 17-3 Under after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
(TC) North Carolina at NC State, 12:00 EST
North Carolina: 14-5 ATS off BB games scoring 17 points or less
NC State: 6-17 ATS off a road conference win
(TC) Kansas at Oklahoma State, 8:00 EST ABC
Kansas: 7-0 ATS as a favorite
Oklahoma State: 1-6 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
UTEP at Tulane, 7:00 EST
UTEP: 1-7 ATS in November
Tulane: 6-1 Under off a home loss by 14+ points
(TC) Florida at South Carolina, 7:45 EST ESPN
Florida: 1-8 ATS as a road favorite
South Carolina: 13-4 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Central Florida at UAB, 7:30 EST CSTV
Central Florida: 6-0 ATS off BB Unders
UAB: 0-6 ATS at home off a conference game
Louisiana Tech at LSU, 8:00 EST
Louisiana Tech: 0-6 ATS off BB road games
LSU: 6-0 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents
USC at California, 8:00 EST ABC
USC: 24-9 ATS after scoring 24+ first-half points
California: 3-12 ATS off 3+ conference games
Washington at Oregon State, 10:15 EST FSN
Washington: 4-12 ATS after allowing 9 points or less
Oregon State: 10-3 Under off a combined score of 29 points or less
San Diego State at UNLV, 11:00 EST CSTV
San Diego State: 10-3 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
UNLV: 2-10 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win
Fresno State at Hawaii, 11:05 EST
Fresno State: 2-12 ATS off an ATS loss
Hawaii: 15-6 ATS as a favorite
Added Games:
Louisiana Lafayette at Middle Tennessee State, 3:30 EST
LA Lafayette: 2-9 ATS vs. conference opponents
Mid Tenn State: 8-1 ATS off a conference win
Navy at North Texas, 4:00 EST
Navy: 13-2 ATS away off a combined score of 70+ points
North Texas: 1-9 ATS off BB conference games
Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic, 4:00 EST
Arkansas State: 9-2 Over after scoring 3 or less first-half points
Florida Atl: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:24pm -
0 likes
NCAAF
Write-up
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Friday’s Games
Bowling Green won its last four games vs Eastern Michigan, by 63-21/33-20/41-20/24-21 scores. Falcons lost three of last four road games; they’re 5-0 when scoring 31+ points, 0-4 when they don’t, and are 1-2 vs. spread when favored. Four of its last five games went over total. Eastern lost five of last six games; six of their seven losses are by 11+ points- they’re 3-6 vs spread as underdog in ’07. Four of their last six foes scored 30+ points.
Rutgers is 2-4 in last six games; they’re 1-1 on the road this year, winning 38-14 at Syracuse (-17), losing 38-19 last week at UConn (+1.5). Knights are 3-2 vs spread when favored this year. Army lost rivalry game at Air Force last week, 30-10 (+17); this is their first home game in month. Cadets won last three home games, beating Temple, Tulane, losing only to Akron (22-14)- they’re
3-2 as dog in ’07. Army allowed average of 288.3 rushing yards/ game in last four games.
Saturday’s Games
Top 10 Games
UCLA won three of last four games vs Arizona State, winning last two here, 20-13 (-2)/45-35(-3); last year, ASU was awful in red zone, failing to score TD in 24-12 home loss to Bruins. Sun Devils lost for first time last week, they trailed at half for fourth week in row and fifth time in last six weeks. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. ASU 2-1 on the road, winning by 41-3/23-20; they’re 6-2 as favorite TY. Erratic Bruins lost three of last four; dogs covered their last five games.
Arkansas ran ball for 541 yards last week, a terrific performance; now they face Tennessee defense that gave up 259 yards on the ground in the 31-14 loss to Arkansas LY (-5). Hogs lost 41-38 at Alabama, won 44-8 at Ole Miss in only two previous road games (594 rushing yards); in last three games, they’ve outscored foes 150-54, running for 1,083 yards. Vols won five of last six games, but in their three losses, they were outscored 62-17 in second half. Will Hogs’ running game wear them down?
Visitor is 3-2 in last five Georgia-Auburn games, with Tigers winning last visit here 31-30; not sure what effect Tuberville-to-A&M rumors are having on Auburn, which has won six of last seven games, losing only in last second at LSU- they’re 3-0 as road dog this season,. 2-1 SU. Dawgs won three in row, six of last seven games; they were held to 12,14 points in their losses (South Carolina/Tennessee) but scored 42,44 points in last two weeks, beating Florida, Troy.
Winner of next week’s Michigan-Ohio State game wins Big 11, so the Wolverine-Badger game is missing that urgency, but still, Michigan won last eight games following 0-2 start; home side won last three in series, as Michigan lost its last visit here, 23-20 (-2). Wolverines were down 24-14 with 7:00 left in East Lansing last week, rallied to win, have hated Buckeyes on deck- this is soft spot for them. Badgers are 2-3 in their last five games after getting thumped by Ohio State, but they’re 6-0 at home in '07.
Ohio State won last three games vs Illinois (23-16/40-2/ 17-10); this game has more urgency for them due to national title stuff. Buckeyes covered six of their last eight games; they’re 2-3 as home favorite in ’07, running ball for 213.3 ypg in last three weeks. Illini won seven of last nine games; they were held to 6,17 in only two losses (Iowa, Michigan)- they’re averaging 30.4 pg on road, 36.5 if you take out the Iowa loss. Illinois has 772 rushing yards in their last two games.
Beamer is 0-7 vs Florida State, losing 27-22 on neutral field in last meeting (-14.5, ’05). Hokies are +13 in turnovers the last six games (14 INTs), and outscored last five foes 96-21 in first half, but they were held to 7,10 points in their two losses (LSU, BC). Florida State won six of last eight games, is off win at BC last week; Seminoles haven’t allowed first half point in last two games, and in four of last seven. FSU scored defensive TD in three of last five games- five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
Boston College tries to rebound from first loss at banged-up Maryland squad they’ve beaten last two years, 31-16 (-2.5)/38-16 (-8). Terps lost last three games, by 1,13,3 points, scoring just 15.7 pg- they’ve run ball for just 102 ypg in last four games, are 2-4 vs spread as dog in ’07. Eagles are 2-1 on road, scoring 21.7 pg, beating Ga Tech (24-10, +7), Notre Dame (27-14, -14). Eagles didn’t score in first half in last two games and have just one takeaway in those two games, big part of their recent struggles.
Oklahoma State won four of last six games; they had second half leads of 17-0/35-14 in losses, so Kansas’ unbeaten record gets serious test here. OSU is +7 in turnovers last three games, but they’re 0-5 when they score less than 39 points (14-23-23-35 in losses). Jayhawks are 3-0 on road, winning at K-State (30-24), Colorado (19-14), A&M (19-11); they covered last seven games, are +12 in turnovers in last four, with 18 INTs in last seven. Hard to believe they hung 76 on Nebraska last week, but they did.
South Carolina gave up 581 rushing yards in loss at Arkansas last week, their third loss in row; how, Ball coach’s old team visits- Gamecocks beat them here 30-22 in ’05 (+4) then barely lost at Swamp LY (17-16; Carolina had 48-yd FG blocked at gun). Florida scored 41.3 pg in last three games- their last four games all went over total- they’re 2-2 on road, winning 30-24 at Ole Miss, 45-37 at Kentucky, losing 28-24 at LSU, 42-30 vs Dawgs in Alltel. Both defenses in this game really struggling.
Cal snapped three-game skid vs Wazzu last week but looked sluggish doing it; in its last four games, they’re -7 in turnovers (5-12) and have been outscored 69-31 in second half- four of last five games stayed under total, as have Trojans' last seven tilts. USC beat Cal last three years (23-17/35-10/23-9) after Bears had upset them here in ’03. Trojans are 3-1 on the road, allowing 26.3 pg (other than shutout at 1-8 Notre Dame). Cal is 4-1 at home, losing 31-28 to Oregon State.
Rest of Card
-- Indiana clinched bowl bid last week, must avoid letdown vs Northwestern squad that’s beaten IU in last three series games (41-37/37-31/31-24). Wildcats turned ball over 12 times in last four games.
-- Purdue is 7-1 in last eight games vs Michigan State, winning last three (45-42/28-21/17-15); Boilers are 5-1 at home this year (lost to Ohio St), 4-1-1 as fave. Spartans lost three in row, five of last six games.
-- Virginia’s Cardiac Cavs (last three wins all by point) are guest for Miami’s last-ever game in Orange Bowl. Virginia beat ‘canes 17-7 LY (+3) after losing previous two years, 25-17 (+17)/ 31-21 (-3.5).
-- Clemson, Wake Forest split last four meetings, with the Tigers needing OT and 24-0 run in 4th quarter to get their two wins. Wake had six-game win streak snapped last week. Clemson won its last three, by 56-13-37.
-- Penn State crushed Temple 47-0 LY (-36); Lions won four of last five games, are just 1-2 on road (beat Indiana 36-31) but they figure to have crowd edge here. Owls are using backup QB, but have won 3 of 4.
-- Georgia Tech beat Duke last three years (24-7/35-10/49-21); underdog is 8-0 vs spread in Tech games, with GT 0-5 as faves. Duke lost last six games, last three by combined total of 115-30.
-- South Florida makes third trip to northeast in last four weeks, trying to break three-game skid (allowed 30 pg) vs Syracuse club they’ve beaten 27-0/27-10 the last two seasons.
-- Kentucky won four of last five vs Vanderbilt, winning its last three, 14-13/48-43/38-26; UK lost three of last four games, is 1-1 on road, beating Arkansas 42-29, losing 38-23 at South Carolina. Vandy can clinch first bowl bid since ‘82 with win; they’re 4-2 at home.
-- UConn is 8-1 this year; they covered last six games (only loss is 17-16 at Virginia) and allowed just 15.6 pg in last five. Cincinnati won at USF last week; they’re 2-2 in Big East, with both wins by five points. UC is 3-2 as favorite in ’07.
-- Colorado won four of last five vs Iowa State, losing 30-16 in last visit here; Buffs lost three of last four games, allowing 36.8 pg. Cyclones snapped six-game skid last w k, upsetting K-State.
-- Air Force beat Army last week in rivalry game, their fourth win in last five games (5-0 vs spread); Falcons lost last three road games, allowing 31-31-34 points. 1-8 Notre Dame goes back to Clausen at QB after losing to Navy.
-- New Mexico won three of last four vs Colorado State, taking last two visits here, 26-17/20-19; 11 of last 14 series games were decided by single digit margins. Four of last five Lobo games stayed under the total.
-- Houston is on short week after Sunday night win over SMU; they’ve beaten Tulsa last two years, 30-23 (+2.5)/27-10 (-3.5). Tulsa is 4-1 at home, scoring 36.2 pg (only loss to Oklahoma)
-- SMU is also on short week after loss at Houston; their coach is lame duck, too. Rice gave up 45.5 pg in last eight games; they turned ball over seven times last week, somehow beat UTEP.
-- Boise State won its last seven games (4-2 vs spread last six); they’re 2-1 on road, winning at La Tech (45-31), Fresno (34-21). Utah State is winless, but covered four of last five games.
-- Utah won last five games, covered last four; they won last three home games, 44-6/34-18/23-7. Wyoming lost last two visits here, 47-17 (+12.5)/43-13 (+2.5).
-- Alabama didn’t score offensive TD in last two games vs 5-4 Mississippi State, which can clinch bowl with win over Croom’s alma mater- their four losses are all by 12+ points. Alabama is off very intense game vs LSU last week.
-- Washington State lost five of its last six games, but whacked UCLA 27-7 in there- all three of their '07 wins are by 17+ points. Stanford is 2-1 as road dog, winning at Arizona and USC, but they lost last two games, scoring total of just 15 points.
-- Nebraska has quit on Callahan- only one of their six losses is by less than 18 points. K-State is 3-2 as favorite this year, but they’re only 1-3 on road, although the win was 41-21 upset at Texas.
-- Iowa won three of last four games (Ws by 4-7-11), and need this win for bowl, but in their last six games, they’ve been outscored 82-23 in first half. Minnesota is 1-3 vs spread on road, losing away games by 3,20,1,24 points.
-- Missouri scored 45.7 pg in winning last three games; they’re 6-1 vs spread as favorite in ’07. Franchione is rumored to be out at Texas A&M, which lost its last two games 19-11/42-14 and could easily finish with four straight losses (finish vs Texas).
-- New Mexico State lost four of last five games, allowing 40.2 pg; they’re 1-4 as road dog, with away losses by 10-35-58-1-37 points. San Jose is favored despite losing last two games by combined score of 72-7.
-- Kent is road favorite despite losing last four games by average score of 35-17. Northern Illinois lost its last five games, scoring just 12.4 pg; they’re 1-4-1 vs spread as underdog this season.
-- East Carolina won five of last six games, scoring 41.8 pg; they won last three road games by 2-3-16 points.- they’re +13 in TO's. Marshall is 1-5-1 vs spread as underdog this season.
-- Memphis won last two road games; totals in their away games this year: 66-76-73-55 (average of 67.5). Southern Miss lost to Tigers two of last three years- they won three of their last four games, with wins by 21-9-30 points.
-- Texas gave up 25,35 points in last two games, trailing both at half, but rallied for pair of wins, gaining 545-589 total yards, in 28-25/38-35 wins; Horns are 3-5-1 vs. spread as favorite this year- they beat Texas Tech last four years, winning last two in Austin, 43-40 (-18)/52-17 (-17).
-- Oklahoma whacked Baylor the last five years by average score of 40-10; only one of those five games was closer than 26 points. Bears covered just one of their last six games (avg score, 42-12).
-- NC State won last three games after 1-5 start, beating Virginia, Miami by combined total of eight points- they’re 0-1 as favorite. North Carolina scored just 13.7 pg in its last three games.
-- UTEP’s defense allowed 45.4 pg in last five games, and somehow won twice; they’re 1-3 on road this season, with totals in those games 76-53-93-104 (average, 81.5). Losing side scored 42+ in four of their last five games.
-- UAB’s depth is poor; they’ve lost their last three games, by 49-10/41-6/37-7 scores, and allowed 307.3 rushing yards/game the last four games. Central Florida won, covered its last three games, winning by 21-17-34 points- they have 10 INTs in those three games.
-- Louisiana Tech won three of last four games, is 5-1 vs spread in WAC, but now they join big leagues, albeit facing LSU squad off string of four tight, emotional games (all decided by seven pts or less). LSU has Ole Miss, Arkansas on deck—doubt you get their best effort here.
-- Oregon State had won three in row before losing 24-3 at USC last week; Washington had lost six in row before its 27-9 win at Stanford. Four of last five Oregon State games stayed under the total. Huskies are 0-6 if they allow more than 12 points.
-- San Diego St. came from behind to upset Wyoming last week; they’re 1-3 on road, losing by 28-21-16 points (won 24-20 at Colorado State). UNLV lost last five games, allowing 31.8 pg- they gave up average of 255.8 rushing yards/game over last four weeks.
-- Fresno State has special teams TD in each of last two games; they’ve won five of last six (losing 34-21 at home to Boise), are 2-2 as dog this season. Hawai’i had last week off, so Brennan’s ankle should be better; they’re averaging 48 pg in last four games.
-- Middle Tennessee won last four games, covered five of last six (scored 91 pts in last two games, are +12 in turnovers last three); they have Troy on deck, need this win for .500 season. ULL lost 59-7 in Knoxville last week; they’re 2-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-18-31-52 points.
-- Navy in ultimate letdown spot, playing weak team on road after momentus win last week, ending 43-year skid vs Notre Dame. North Texas is 1-7, allowed 93 points in last two games- they lost one game 45-7, despite a +5 turnover ratio in that tilt.
-- Florida Atlantic lost in OT last week, their third loss in last four games- with game at Florida on deck, they need this one. Arkansas State is 0-4 on road, losing by 8-21-17-17 points (1-3 as underdog).
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:25pm -
0 likes
NCAAF
Tips and Trends
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Tips and Trends
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Friday, November 9
Rutgers at Army (8 PM ET | ESPN2)
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights look to get back on track Friday night when they travel to Michie Stadium to take on the Army Black Knights. The Scarlet Knights enter this game on a two game losing streak, suffering defeats to West Virginia and Connecticut by a combined 47 points. The Black Knights also find themselves in a losing streak of their own, losing their last three with a sputtering offense averaging just 14 ppg during that stretch. This is the first meeting between these two schools since 2003, and Rutgers has enjoyed great success against Army, covering the point spread in eight out of the last ten meetings. EDGE: RUTGERS
One of the bright spots for the Scarlet Knights has been RB Ray Rice. He leads the Big East and is sixth nationally with 140 rushing yards per game. Rice looks to be set for a big game against the Black Knights on Friday night, as they are ranked 109th in the country in rushing defense allowing 213 yards per game. BIG EDGE: RUTGERS
The Army Black Knights return home for the first time since beating Tulane in overtime a month ago and sport an unblemished home mark of 3-0 on the season. Army’s defense has been a bend but don’t break kind of unit at home, giving up close to 400 yards per game, but allowing just 15 points. The Scarlet Knights amassed 510 yards of offense against UConn last week, but could only find the end zone once. EDGE: ARMY
Army’s head coach Stan Brock has said that his team will do whatever it takes to protect their home turf, and they are very proud of the fact that they haven’t lost a game this season at home. This game is expected to be a sell out and everyone will be wearing all black to support the Black Knights. Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano said this game is going to be a tough challenge for his team on a short week. EDGE: ARMY
Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a losing team.
Rutgers is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Army is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Army is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 9-3-1 in Rutgers last 12 games overall.
Saturday, November 10
#12 Michigan at Wisconsin (ESPN | 12 PM ET)
The Wolverines must win this game if they have any hopes of finishing alone atop the Big Ten. Otherwise, a win against Ohio State would mean possibly sharing the title with the Buckeyes. "You never want to tie anything, especially with Ohio State," Michigan RB Mike Hart said. "We want to win this game, and then go win the championship outright." EDGE: MICHIGAN
Michigan has won seven of the last eight meetings with Wisconsin, including a 27-13 victory at home last year. However, the Badgers are 5-2-1 ATS in those games. SLIGHT EDGE: WISCONSIN
Wisconsin is coming off a disappointing 38-17 loss to Ohio State last week, rushing for a season-low 12 yards on 37 carries. Star RB P.J. Hill is suffering from a bruised leg and may not play. (Check status on Pregame Wire) EDGE: MICHIGAN
The Badgers have won 13 straight home games along with 24 of 25. However, Michigan is 21-4-1 all-time at Camp Randall Stadium. SLIGHT EDGE: MICHIGAN
Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games against a winning team.
Michigan is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.
Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog.
Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 conference games.
The UNDER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
Wake Forest at #21 Clemson (ESPN2 | 12 PM ET)
The winner of this game still has a legitimate shot at making the conference title game following BC's loss to Florida State last week. Both Clemson and Wake Forest sit one-half game behind the Eagles. Wake lost to BC 38-28 back on September 1st while the Tigers play host to the Atlantic Division leaders next Saturday. EDGE: CLEMSON
Wake Forest surrenders 224.4 passing yards per game, which could be the difference against a Clemson team that leads the ACC in passing efficiency and ranks third in passing yards with 258 per game. EDGE: CLEMSON
The Demon Deacons have dropped their last three games at Death Valley, losing by an average score of 41-20. EDGE: CLEMSON
Wake Forest is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 road games.
Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall.
Clemson is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games against a winning team.
Clemson is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as a home favorite.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings.
Air Force at Notre Dame (NBC | 2:30 PM ET)
Air Force has lost the last three meetings with Notre Dame but beat the Fighting Irish on the road as a 21.5-point underdog back on Ocotober 19th, 1996. The Falcons are 4-1 in their last five games overall, covering the spread each time during that stretch. EDGE: AIR FORCE
Prior to last week's 46-44 loss in triple overtime, Notre Dame's losses had all been decided by at least 13 points. The Fighting Irish are 0-5 at home, scoring 14 points or less in four of those games. EDGE: AIR FORCE
Air Force is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as a small favorite.
Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against the Mountain West.
Notre Dame is 2-8 ATS in its last 19 home games
Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Illinois at #1 Ohio State (ABC | 3:30 PM ET)
The Illini are confident they can play with the Buckeyes in this one after suffering a tough 17-10 home loss in last year's meeting. That Illinois team finished 2-10 while this year's squad is headed to a bowl game. "The amount of respect we have for that team is just about as high as anybody else," Ohio State WR Brian Hartline said. "Being able to watch them do what they've done this year so far, we have a lot of respect for them. It'll be a different game this year." SLIGHT EDGE: ILLINOIS
The Buckeyes certainly can't afford to slip here if they have any hopes of making it to the BCS title game for the second year in a row. This is also a possible look-ahead spot with Michigan on deck next week, but Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel is confident that won't happen. "This group really understands that we've got work to do," Tressel said. EDGE: OHIO STATE
Ohio State has won 28 straight regular-season games and 20 in a row in Big Ten play. EDGE: OHIO STATE
Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall needs just 17 yards to break the school's single-season rushing record after totaling 390 yards and four touchdowns in the last two games. However, Ohio State ranks third nationally in run defense, allowing 65 yards per game and only two rushing TDs all season. SLIGHT EDGE: OHIO STATE
Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win.
Illinois is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Illinois is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games as a road underdog.
Ohio State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 home games.
Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of 20+ points.
#9 Arizona State at UCLA (ABC | 3:30 PM ET)
The Sun Devils are coming off their first loss of the season to virtually end any hopes of playing in the BCS title game, but they still have a lot to play for with a potential spot in the Rose Bowl still up for grabs. "Obviously guys are down," ASU QB Rudy Carpenter said. "We wanted to have a magical season this year, and I think guys have got to understand that we still can. We've still got a lot to play for - I think everybody on our team realizes that we can still accomplish the goals that we had set at the beginning of the season." EDGE: ARIZONA STATE
UCLA will likely start its fourth different QB this year in Osaar Rasshan, who replaced Patrick Cowan after he suffered a concussion against Arizona last week. Rasshan led the Bruins to a pair of field goals and a touchdown against the Wildcats and has never made a collegiate start. "We're encouraged with how he played, played with a lot of courage and heart, making some plays out there," UCLA head coach Karl Dorrell said. "His first time on the field, and being a road game, it was pretty encouraging for us to see how he responded." EDGE: ARIZONA STATE
Arizona State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS loss.
Arizona State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 conference games.
Arizona State is 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
UCLA is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following a SU loss.
UCLA is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home games.
#18 Auburn at #10 Georgia (CBS | 3:30 PM ET)
Georgia has won three straight games behind the running of freshman RB Knowshon Moreno, who has totaled 541 yards and six touchdowns during that stretch. Moreno is the first freshman since Herschel Walker to rush for 1,000 yards and could get some help in the backfield if Thomas Brown can return from a collarbone injury. "Thomas is coming right along," Bulldogs head coach Mark Richt said. "He's definitely got a chance to play in this one. I think he's motivated to - we're going to start working him this week as if he's got a shot." EDGE: GEORGIA
Auburn's defense has limited the opposition to seven points or less in four of the last five games. The Tigers are 18-9 in their last 27 trips to Athens, winning six of the last seven there. EDGE: AUBURN
The Bulldogs have won five of six at home this season and beat Auburn 37-15 on the road last year. In fact, the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. SLIGHT EDGE: AUBURN
Auburn is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall.
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 conference games.
Georgia is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite.
Georgia is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss.
Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Florida State at #11 Virginia Tech (ABC | 3:30 PM ET)
The Seminoles have won 12 in a row vs. Virginia Tech, the latest coming in the 2005 ACC championship game. The teams have not played since then but share a common recent opponent in Boston College. Florida State handed the Eagles their first loss last Saturday while the Hokies blew a 10-0 lead and lost 14-10 to BC back on October 25th. EDGE: FLORIDA STATE
Florida State QB Drew Weatherford threw for 354 yards and two touchdowns in last week's upset of BC, and he has thrown only one interception in 192 pass attempts. EDGE: FLORIDA STATE
Virginia Tech is allowing an ACC-low 14.3 points per game. The UNDER is 8-2 in both the team's last 10 games as a favorite and last 10 conference games. EDGE: UNDER
Florida State will be looking for wins over ranked teams in consecutive games for the first time since 1992.
Florida State is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog.
Florida State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 conference games.
Virginia Tech is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games following an ATS win.
Virginia Tech is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 home games as a favorite.
The UNDER is 10-4 in Virginia Tech?s last 14 games.
Texas Tech at #14 Texas (ABC | 3:30 PM ET)
Texas has won the last four in the series with Texas Tech and four straight overall. The last two wins for the Longhorns have been nail-biters, coming down to the wire without much defense being played. They have given up 1,134 yards of offense to Nebraska and Oklahoma State while beating both teams by a combined six points. The Red Raiders bring the nation's top offense to Austin, averaging 549.5 yards per game. EDGE: OVER
Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree seems to be hitting a wall late in his freshman year, averaging 109.5 yards per game in the last four with only one touchdown. Crabtree still leads the nation in receiving yards, catches and touchdowns, but he is coming off a season low of four catches for 61 yards after averaging 179 yards and almost three TDs per game in his first six. "Crabtree is just putting up amazing numbers," Texas DE Brian Orakpo said. "I can't even do what he's doing on a video game." EDGE: TEXAS
Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against a winning team.
Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win.
Texas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games as a home favorite.
Texas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS win.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
#15 Florida at South Carolina (ABC | 7:45 PM ET)
The Gamecocks just gave up a school-record 541 rushing yards in a road loss at Arkansas and now have to face Florida QB Tim Tebow, who leads the SEC in both total offense (314 yards per game) and rushing touchdowns (14). EDGE: FLORIDA
South Carolina has dropped three straight games, and head coach Steve Spurrier has lost four in a row only once in his career. That came back in 1987 in his first season with Duke. He beat his former team Florida in the first meeting since leaving the Gators in 2005 and also led the Gamecocks to a cover in a 17-16 loss last year as a 13-point underdog. EDGE: SOUTH CAROLINA
Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against a winning team.
Florida is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games as a road favorite.
South Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against a winning team.
South Carolina is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games overall.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
#4 Kansas at Oklahoma State (ABC | 8 PM ET)
The Jayhawks are coming off an awesome offensive display in a 76-39 rout of Nebraska last week. They got a school-record six touchdown passes from QB Todd Reesing and four rushing touchdowns from RB Brandon McAnderson. In fact, Kansas scored TDs on 10 straight possessions to beat the Cornhuskers for the second time in 39 meetings. EDGE: KANSAS & OVER
Oklahoma State totaled 603 yards in a 42-32 win over Kansas last October 14th. The Cowboys have won the last five meetings but blew a 35-14 lead last week in a 38-35 home loss to Texas. "As painful as it is, we still have to correct everything that happened in the game to make us better for the next week and then get back on track," OSU head coach Mike Gundy said. "The one thing that will work to our advantage this week is it's not every day you get to play a team that's fifth in the BCS or whatever they are. I would think that our players would be excited about playing at team that's as highly regarded as they are." SLIGHT EDGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
The Cowboys are surrendering an average of 448.3 yards per game, good for second-worst in the Big 12. That's bad news against the nation's second-best offense, as Kansas is averaging 46.2 points per game. EDGE: KANSAS
Kansas is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU win.
Kansas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.
Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS loss.
Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games against Kansas.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
#17 USC at California (ABC | 8 PM ET)
This will be Senior Day at Cal's Memorial Stadium, and you can bet the 18 players who will be honored would love nothing more than to beat the Trojans in their final home game. The last time the Golden Bears beat USC came back in 2003, 34-31. "Some people jumped off the bandwagon, but we can't control who sticks with us," Cal LB Zack Follett said. "There's nothing we can do except keep playing." EDGE: CAL
Both teams have QB injury issues, with Cal's Nate Longshore still bothered by a sprained ankle and USC's John David Booty trying to recover from a broken finger. Longshore completed 26-of-39 passes for 213 yards and no touchdowns last week while Booty connected on 19-of-33 for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Insiders expect both teams to continue following conservative offensive gameplans here. EDGE: UNDER
USC is 21-0 in November games under head coach Peter Carroll.
USC is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against a winning team.
USC is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 conference games.
Cal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog.
Cal is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
#8 Boston College at Maryland (ABC | 8 PM ET)
The Eagles are looking to bounce from their first loss of the season, knocking them from #2 in the BCS rankings to #8. They still sit atop the ACC's Atlantic Division, one-half game ahead of both Clemson and Wake Forest. BC head coach Jeff Jagodzinski said the team's top priority is still winning the conference title despite the loss. "We've never won one before," Jagodzinski said. "Our goal is to win the ACC first. If that happens, we'll see what happens after that." EDGE: BOSTON COLLEGE
BC has won the last two meetings with Maryland by an average of 18.5 points, including a 31-16 victory the last time the team visited College Park. The Terrapins have lost three straight following a 4-2 start, including two in a row at home by a combined 14 points. EDGE: BOSTON COLLEGE
BC is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS loss.
BC is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against a losing team.
Maryland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games.
Maryland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 conference games.
The UNDER is 4-1 in Maryland?s last 5 home games.
#19 Virginia at Miami (Florida) (ESPN2 | 8 PM ET)
Virginia has thrived in close games this season, winning each of its last three by one point. The Cavaliers are also 5-0 in games decided by two points or less, setting the NCAA record for wins by such a small margin. EDGE: VIRGINIA
The Hurricanes have not lost three in a row at home since 1996 and will be playing their final game at the Orange Bowl on Saturday. They will begin playing at Dolphin Stadium next season. "The future's the future, the past is the past, and I enjoyed it. It was great," Miami head coach Randy Shannon said. "But I look forward to other challenges that were presented to us as a university and we think it's going to be a great situation." BIG EDGE: MIAMI
Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog.
Virginia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games.
Miami (FL) is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 conference games.
Miami (FL) is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 home games against a winning team.
The UNDER is 20-6 in Miami?s last 28 home games as a favorite.
Fresno State at #16 Hawaii (ESPN2 | 11 PM ET)
Hawaii has just four games left to move up four spots in the BCS standings, guaranteeing a spot in a BCS bowl game. The Warriors are coming off a bye week as one of only three unbeaten teams in the country. "I don't look at it because it doesn't matter," Hawaii head coach June Jones said. "It'll only matter if we keep winning. We've convinced the players of that too. They speak that same way. It is kind of cool, but everyone in this room will be disappointed if we don't end up that way." EDGE: HAWAII
In two career games against Fresno State, Hawaii QB Colt Brennan has thrown for 736 yards and six touchdowns. The Heisman Trophy candidate has 970 yards and 10 TDs in his last two games and will need to finish strong to get invited to New York as a finalist. EDGE: HAWAII
Fresno State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.
Fresno State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games against a winning team.
Hawaii is 8-3 in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 10+ points.
Hawaii is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 home games against a winning road team.
Home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:25pm -
0 likes
NCAAF
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College Football Top 25
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There was another big shakeup at the top of the Top 25 college football rankings this week. Ohio State held on to the No. 1 position once again, but the rest of the Top 5 all changed. LSU moved back into their old slot at No. 2, while Oregon landed at No. 3 after toppling Arizona State. The No. 4 spot now belongs to Oklahoma, while Kansas made a three-spot leap to grab the No. 5 position.
The largest gain of the week was made by Clemson. The Tigers are making a late push for first place in the ACC Atlantic and made a five-spot gain in the rankings after thrashing Duke last week.
The biggest loser of the week was Boston College. The Eagles were riding high at No. 2 and had national championship game visions before an upset loss to Florida State knocked them down the rankings six spots.
Three new teams entered the rankings this week, with Virginia making their Top 25 debut while California and Kentucky both got back in. The three teams that got the boot from the rankings were South Carolina, Wake Forest and South Florida.
1. Ohio State – 10-0 (1)
The Buckeyes ripped Wisconsin 38-17 last week to remain on top of the rankings. Ohio State hosts 7-3 Illinois this weekend in their final home game of the season.
2. LSU – 8-1 (3)
The Tigers defeated Alabama 41-34 last week to climb up to No. 2. LSU has an easy out-of-conference game this weekend versus 4-5 Louisiana Tech.
3. Oregon – 8-1 (4)
The Ducks moved into the Top 3 after knocking off Arizona State 35-23 last week. Oregon is off this week before heading to 4-6 Arizona on Nov. 15.
4. Oklahoma – 8-1 (5)
The Sooners gained a single spot in the rankings after blowing out Texas A&M 42-14 last week. Oklahoma has an easy home game versus 3-7 Baylor this week.
5. Kansas – 9-0 (8)
The Jayhawks flew into the Top 5 after embarrassing Nebraska 76-39 last week. Kansas takes their perfect record to 5-4 Oklahoma State this week.
6. West Virginia – 7-1 (7)
The Mountaineers climbed one spot up the ladder despite not playing last week. West Virginia heads back to the gridiron on Thursday with a big game at home against 5-4 Louisville.
7. Missouri – 8-1 (9)
The Tigers shredded Colorado 55-10 last week to gain two positions in the rankings. Missouri takes on 6-4 Texas A&M at home this weekend.
8. Boston College – 8-1 (2)
The Eagles tumbled down the rankings after suffering their first loss of the season to Florida State, 27-17 last week. Boston College will look to rebound at 4-5 Maryland this weekend.
9. Arizona State – 8-1 (6)
The Sun Devils slipped in the rankings after losing to Oregon 35-23 last week. Arizona State has a road game at 5-4 UCLA this weekend.
10. Georgia – 7-2 (10)
The Bulldogs dropped Troy 44-34 last week to hold at No. 10. Georgia has a tough SEC test this weekend at home versus 7-3 Auburn.
11. Virginia Tech – 7-2 (11)
The Hokies got past Georgia Tech 27-3 last week to remain at No. 11. Virginia Tech will face 6-3 Florida State at home this weekend.
12. USC – 7-2 (13)
The Trojans stomped Oregon State 24-3 last week. USC needs a win this week when they travel to No. 24 California.
13. Michigan – 8-2 (15)
The Wolverines defeated rivals Michigan State 28-24 last week. Michigan hits the road for a game at 7-3 Wisconsin this weekend.
14. Hawaii – 8-0 (12)
The Warriors were off last week, but somehow dropped two spots in the rankings. Hawaii can start back up the rankings again if they can beat 6-3 Fresno State this weekend.
15. Texas – 8-2 (14)
The Longhorns edged Oklahoma State 38-35 last week. Texas hosts 7-3 Texas Tech in a must-win game this weekend.
16. Connecticut – 8-1 (16)
The Huskies pounded Rutgers 38-19 last weekend to hold steady at No. 16. Connecticut faces 7-2 Cincinnati on the road this weekend.
17. Florida – 6-3 (18)
The Gators stopped their fall down the rankings after crushing Vanderbilt 49-22 last week. Florida will try to become the latest team to defeat 6-4 South Carolina this weekend.
18. Auburn – 7-3 (19)
The Tigers dismantled Tennessee Tech 35-3 last week. Auburn has a much tougher game this week at No. 10 Georgia.
19. Boise State – 8-1 (21)
The Broncos moved up the rankings after routing San Jose State 42-7 last week. Boise State has a laugher this weekend at 0-9 Utah State.
20. Clemson – 7-2 (25)
The Tigers moved out of the Top 25 basement after plastering Duke 47-10 last week. Clemson needs to keep winning when they take on 6-3 Wake Forest at home this weekend.
21. Alabama – 6-3 (17)
The Crimson Tide slipped in the rankings after a 41-34 loss to LSU last week. Alabama will try to get back on track versus 5-4 Mississippi State this weekend.
22. Tennessee – 6-3 (24)
The Volunteers cruised past Louisiana-Lafayette in a 59-7 blowout last week. Tennessee should have a harder time with 6-3 Arkansas this weekend.
23. Virginia – 8-2 (-)
The Cavaliers clipped Wake Forest 17-16 last week to get into the rankings. Virginia heads to 5-4 Miami (FL) this weekend.
24. California – 6-3 (-)
The Golden Bears re-entered the rankings after slipping past Washington State 20-17 last week. California is in tough at home against No. 12 USC this weekend.
25. Kentucky – 6-3 (-)
The Wildcats found their way back into the rankings despite not even playing last weekend. Kentucky needs a win at 5-4 Vanderbilt this weekend to remain in the Top 25.
Out:
South Florida (20)
Wake Forest (22)
South Carolina (23)
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:26pm -
0 likes
NFL
Dunkel Index
Denver at Kansas City
The Chiefs have struggled to generate much offense in the first half of the season and come into this contest ranked 29th in the league in scoring (15.5 ppg) and 30th in total offense (286.3 ypg). That doesn't look to improve much without RB Larry Johnson, who is likely to miss Sunday's game with a sprained foot. But despite the problems, Kansas City finds itself tied for first place in the AFC West with San Diego and a chance to move into first outright. If any team was supposed to challenge the Chargers, it was the Broncos. But Denver is reeling right now and has lost five of its last six, including last weekend's 44-7 blowout in Detroit. QB Jay Cutler was carted off the field with a badly bruised leg, which at a minimum should affect his mobility on Sunday. RB Travis Henry also sat out the fourth quarter with a knee injury. The home team has won the last nine straight and the Chiefs look like a good pick to make it 10 straight and cover the line (-4) according to Dunkel, which has KC favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 11
Game 207-208: Jacksonville at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 133.690; Tennessee 135.076
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+4 1/2); N/A
Game 209-210: Denver at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.224; Kansas City 133.774
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 12 1/2; 32
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-4); N/A
Game 211-212: Buffalo at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 130.856; Miami 123.412
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 7 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3); Over
Game 213-214: Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.240; Pittsburgh 142.548
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 16; 51
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 9; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-9); Over
Game 215-216: St. Louis at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 113.977; New Orleans 136.425
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 22 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-11 1/2); Under
Game 217-218: Atlanta at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 126.572; Carolina 128.820
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 2; 33
Vegas Line: Carolina by 4 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4 1/2); Under
Game 219-220: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 128.495; Washington 128.231
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over
Game 221-222: Minnesota at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 132.195; Green Bay 134.370
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Over
Game 223-224: Cincinnati at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.588; Baltimore 126.396
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2); Under
Game 225-226: Chicago at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.356; Oakland 128.388
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 35
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Under
Game 227-228: Dallas at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.390; NY Giants 137.645
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 2; 46
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+1); Under
Game 229-230: Detroit at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 135.354; Arizona 128.071
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+1 1/2); Under
Game 231-232: Indianapolis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 147.679; San Diego 135.163
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 12 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3); Under
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 12
Game 233-234: San Francisco at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 117.961; Seattle 131.430
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 13 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Under
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:26pm -
0 likes
NFL
Long Sheet
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Sunday, November 11
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JACKSONVILLE (5 - 3) at TENNESSEE (6 - 2) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (3 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 4) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BUFFALO (4 - 4) at MIAMI (0 -
- 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEVELAND (5 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ST LOUIS (0 -
at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 4) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST LOUIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-74 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-74 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (2 - 6) at CAROLINA (4 - 4) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 5) at WASHINGTON (5 - 3) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at GREEN BAY (7 - 1) - 11/11/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CINCINNATI (2 - 6) at BALTIMORE (4 - 3) - 11/11/2007, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CHICAGO (3 - 5) at OAKLAND (2 - 6) - 11/11/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
CHICAGO is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-45 ATS (-28.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DALLAS (7 - 1) at NY GIANTS (6 - 2) - 11/11/2007, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT (6 - 2) at ARIZONA (3 - 5) - 11/11/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
ARIZONA is 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 4) - 11/11/2007, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, November 12
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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 6) at SEATTLE (4 - 4) - 11/12/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
SEATTLE is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:27pm -
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NFL
Short Sheet
Sunday, November 11th
Week 10 Byes: Houston, New England, NY Jets, Tampa Bay
Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 0-7 ATS off BB Overs
Tennessee: 7-1 ATS off BB home wins
Denver at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Denver: 8-1 ATS off BB games scoring 14 points or less
Kansas City: 11-3 Under vs. division opponents
Buffalo at Miami, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 9-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Miami: 2-11 ATS vs. division opponents
Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: 9-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points
Pittsburgh: 5-0 Over vs. Cleveland
St. Louis at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
St. Louis: 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 10+ points
New Orleans: 6-1 Over off a home win
Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 EST
Atlanta: 8-1 Under away off a win
Carolina: 2-9 ATS off a road game
Philadelphia at Washington, 1:00 EST
Philadelphia: 7-0 ATS off a home loss by 21+ points
Washington: 18-6 Under after having 175+ rushing yards
Minnesota at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
Minnesota: 2-11 ATS off a win as a home underdog
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game
Cincinnati at Baltimore, 4:05 EST
Cincinnati: 1-9 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Baltimore: 8-3 ATS at home vs. Cincinnati
Chicago at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Chicago: 23-8 ATS away in November
Oakland: 1-8 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Dallas at NY Giants, 4:15 EST
Dallas: 5-1 Over off a win
NY Giants: 8-2 ATS playing with revenge
Detroit at Arizona, 4:15 EST
Detroit: 5-16 ATS away off BB wins
Arizona: 23-8 ATS at home off 3+ losses
Indianapolis at San Diego, 8:15 EST NBC
Indianapolis: 15-5 ATS off 3+ Unders
San Diego: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game
Monday, November 12th
San Francisco at Seattle, 8:30 EST ESPN
San Francisco: 20-8 ATS on Monday nights
Seattle: 9-3 Over after scoring 30+ points
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:27pm -
0 likes
NFL
Write-up
Week 10 NFL schedule
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Sunday, November 11
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Jaguars (5-3) @ Titans (6-2) — Third straight road game for the Jaguars, who gave up 445 passing yards to Brees last week, but now face Titan squad that has total of only 122 passing yards in last two games. Tennessee ran ball down Jags’ throats for 282 yards in 13-10 Week 1 win (+6); Titans won last three games overall, and also three in row at home, allowing just one TD on opponents’ last 39 drives in home games. Jags gave up 31 pg in last three games, after giving up 11.6 in first five; they miss QB Garrard and DT Stroud. Titans have 12 sacks in last two games. Under is 6-1-1 in Tennessee games this season.
Broncos (3-5) @ Chiefs (4-4) —X-rays of Cutler’s leg showed no break, rare good news for Denver side that lost five of last six games; they were outscored 82-27 in losing last two road games, are 1-7 vs spread in ’07, 1-3 as underdog. Chiefs are 3-1 if they allow less than 20 points; they’ve gained more than 290 TY in only two of eight games, allowed 12 sacks in last three games, and other than Gonzalez, have useless receivers- they averaged 5.3 or less ypp in last four games. Star RB Johnson was carted off near end of game last week, which could be very damaging. Six of last seven Denver games went over the total.
Bills (4-4) @ Dolphins (0-8) —Buffalo is 3-0 since bye, allowing 12.7 pg; if they hadn’t blown late lead vs Dallas in Week 5, they would have five-game win streak- they’re +8 in turnovers last four games, taking ball away 11 times. Now, they’re road favorite at desperate Miami club that is 0-3 at home, losing by 17-18-21 points (allowing 40.3 pg) and has been outscored 82-17 in first half of last three games overall. Buffalo is 1-2 on road, scoring 7.7 pg (two TD’s on 28 drives); they have been outscored 64-10 in two games on natural grass (vs Pats, Steelers). Five of last seven Miami games went over total (over is 3-0 in Miami home games). .
Browns (5-3) @ Steelers (6-2) — Cleveland won last three games, scoring 33.7 pg; they covered six of last seven games, have 12 TDs on last 29 drives and converted 19 of last 34 3rd down plays. Browns averaged 7.6+ ypa in four of last five games; they’re +6 in turnovers in their five wins, -8 in their three losses. Pitt is 4-0 off Monday’s rout of Ravens, winning by 23-21-21-31 points; they’re just sixth team ever to win their first four home games of season, all by 21+ points. Steelers routed Browns 34-7 in opener on Lake Erie, running ball for 206 yards, starting six of 14 drives in Browns’ territory. Seven of eight Cleveland games went over total, including last four in row.
Rams (0-8) @ Saints (4-4) —Red-hot Brees is 66-88/771 passing in last two games, as Saints rallied from 0-4 start to even record; only 23 of their last 141 plays were run on third down, that tells you how well they’re moving ball. NO scored 14 or less points in all four losses (four TDs on 41 drives), 22+ in their wins (14 TDs on 43 drives). Doubtful winless Rams can offer much resistance; they haven’t scored TD in 46 drives on road, with 16 3/outs and five missed FGs in nine tries. St Louis is 1-7 vs spread this year; five of eight losses are by 14+ points- they’re -9 in turnovers last three games. Six of their eight games stayed under total. Former Saint coach Haslett is Rams’ DC.
Falcons (2-6) @ Panthers (4-4) —Carolina is 0-3 at home, losing by 13-13-24 points, allowing 28.3 pg; they’ve been outscored 53-19 in first half of last five games, and are now down to Carr and Moore at QB, not ideal combo. Panthers beat Atlanta 27-20 in the season opener, running ball for 175 yards, offsetting 31-44/331 passing day by Harrington. Falcons were outscored 44-12 in second half of last four games; they’re 0-4 on road, losing by 21-6-7-6 points, scoring just 9.8 pg (two TDs on 41 drives on road). Odd thing about Atlanta is they have +11 turnover ratio in last five games, and still went 2-3 in those five. Carolina has +6 ratio in turnovers in their last four games.
Eagles (3-5) @ Redskins (5-3) — The legal case involving Reid’s family is huge news in Philly, is casting pall over season that isn’t going well anyway. Philly lost home Monday nighter 20-12 to Washington in first meeting of season, scoring just nine points in four visits to Redskin red zone- in their last 16 visits to red zone, Iggles have just five TDs, with 10 FGs tried (4.07 ppd). Philly also has just one takeaway in last three games, but they have won three of four after loss this season. Skins are 3-1 at home, with wins by 3,31,2 points; they were outscored 41-9 in first half of last two games, but rallied well to pull out OT win over Jets in Swamp last week. Skins’ last three games went over.
Vikings (3-5) @ Packers (7-1)—Rookie RB Peterson set all-time single game rushing mark last week; he is carrying Viking offense that has all three QB’s banged up; they’re 1-3 on road, losing by 3-3-10 points. Pack beat them 23-16 first meeting, at Metrodome, outrushing Vikes 155-46. Red-hot Favre, who averaged more than 10 yards per pass attempt in each of last two games (with wins at Denver, KC in span of six days) was 32-45/322 passing in first meeting vs Vikes, Minnesota is +5 in turnovers last four games; they outrushed foes 925-315 in last four games. Over is 4-1 in Vikings’ last five games, 5-2 in Packers’ last seven contests. Pack is 1-1-1 as favorite, 5-0 as dog this season.
Bengals (2-6) @ Ravens (4-4) —Not much to choose from here; Bengals are 0-4 on road, giving up 33.8 pg; they’ve lost six of last seven games since 27-20 Week 1 win vs Ravens, allowing 3+ TDs in all seven games. Cincy had six takeaways in the opener, have just 10 in seven games since. Ravens on short week after putrid performance in Pittsburgh (lost 38-7, gaining just 107 yards on a rainy night); they’re 3-0 at home, though, winning by 7-3-19 pts; they’re 1-5 vs. spread as favorite this season, covering only vs winless Rams. Bengals gave up 26 TDs on opponents last 74 drives. Four of last five Baltimore games stayed under total.
Bears (3-5) @ Raiders (2-6) — Oakland scored just 12.5 ppg in losing last four games (under 3-0-1), with -7 turnover ratio and only four TDs on last 43 drives; they’re 11 for last 41 on third down, so no one is making plays to move the chains (think they could use Randy Moss, in his current state?) Chicago has just one TD on last 19 drives, is -7 in turnovers last three games (1-8) and has been outrushed 553-218 in last three games- road team won their last four games. Raiders trying to avoid using rookie QB Russell before he is ready, but if losing continues, they’ll have to play him pretty soon. NFC teams were 5-2 vs AFC last week, cutting AFC’s season lead to 20-18.
Cowboys (7-1) @ Giants (6-2) —Big Blue won six in row after 0-2 start, allowing 11.7 pg in last three games (three TDs allowed on last 32 drives); one of losses was 45-35 shootout in Week 1 in Dallas, with total yardage 478-438, Dallas- they had six TDs on 10 drives. Pokes are 4-0 on road, scoring 33.5 pg; six of their seven wins are by 10+ points. Cowboys outscored foes 156-57 in 2nd half of their wins- Pats had 27-10 edge in second half of their only loss. Giants outrushed opponents 705-377 in last four games; they won last three home games by 13-11-18 points. Six of eight Dallas games went over the total. Cowboys pretty much clinch NFC East with win here.
Lions (6-2) @ Cardinals (3-5) —Detroit has 24 takeaways in eight games (+8 ratio); in three games they lost turnover battle, they were crushed (56-21/34-3) and in one game that was even, they nipped Vikings by FG, so if Arizona can avoid miscues (they’re -9 in turnovers last three games, with 10 giveaways) they can pull upset here. Lions are 3-0 since their bye, giving up 10 pg (three TDs on 31 drives); they outscored last three opponents 42-7 in first half, and outrushed last four foes 396-234. Cardinals are 2-1 at home, beating Seattle, Steelers, losing to Carolina- they need to run ball better (42 rushes, 107 yards in last two games). Three of last four Lion games stayed under.
Colts (7-1) @ Chargers (4-4) —No love lost for Manning clan in San Diego after Eli refused to play for Chargers; huge game for 4-4 Bolts, who are still tied for first in AFC West. Bolts are 3-1 at home, with wins by 11-14-25 points; they’ve outscored last five opponents 99-26 in first half of last five games, but they’ve had injuries on defensive front (Vikings had 378 rushing yards last week) which will hurt vs potent Colt offense (scoring 28 pg on road (4-0)). Indy is off first loss; they covered last six games, with last three staying under total. Rivers needs to make more plays for Bolts, who are just 7 for last 24 on third down conversions. Bigger game for San Diego than Indy.
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Monday, November 12
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49ers (2-6) @ Seahawks (4-4) —Seattle scored 33,30 points in last two games, but couldn’t hold 21-6 lead on Lake Erie last week, but they’re still in good shape in division, since other three teams are bad. 49ers lost last six games, with four losses by 18+ points; they have yet to gain 290 yards in any game this season. Hawks won first meeting 23-3 in Candlestick, holding 49ers to 22 net passing yards (that was with Dilfer under center, not Smith). Seattle lost three of last four games, beating winless Rams; three of their four wins are by 14+ points. 49ers are -9 in turnovers last five games, -15 in sacks; this is their third road game in last four weeks. Potentially ugly Monday night game.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:27pm -
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NFL
Write-up
Week 10 NFL schedule
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Sunday, November 11
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Jaguars (5-3) @ Titans (6-2) — Third straight road game for the Jaguars, who gave up 445 passing yards to Brees last week, but now face Titan squad that has total of only 122 passing yards in last two games. Tennessee ran ball down Jags’ throats for 282 yards in 13-10 Week 1 win (+6); Titans won last three games overall, and also three in row at home, allowing just one TD on opponents’ last 39 drives in home games. Jags gave up 31 pg in last three games, after giving up 11.6 in first five; they miss QB Garrard and DT Stroud. Titans have 12 sacks in last two games. Under is 6-1-1 in Tennessee games this season.
Broncos (3-5) @ Chiefs (4-4) —X-rays of Cutler’s leg showed no break, rare good news for Denver side that lost five of last six games; they were outscored 82-27 in losing last two road games, are 1-7 vs spread in ’07, 1-3 as underdog. Chiefs are 3-1 if they allow less than 20 points; they’ve gained more than 290 TY in only two of eight games, allowed 12 sacks in last three games, and other than Gonzalez, have useless receivers- they averaged 5.3 or less ypp in last four games. Star RB Johnson was carted off near end of game last week, which could be very damaging. Six of last seven Denver games went over the total.
Bills (4-4) @ Dolphins (0-8) —Buffalo is 3-0 since bye, allowing 12.7 pg; if they hadn’t blown late lead vs Dallas in Week 5, they would have five-game win streak- they’re +8 in turnovers last four games, taking ball away 11 times. Now, they’re road favorite at desperate Miami club that is 0-3 at home, losing by 17-18-21 points (allowing 40.3 pg) and has been outscored 82-17 in first half of last three games overall. Buffalo is 1-2 on road, scoring 7.7 pg (two TD’s on 28 drives); they have been outscored 64-10 in two games on natural grass (vs Pats, Steelers). Five of last seven Miami games went over total (over is 3-0 in Miami home games). .
Browns (5-3) @ Steelers (6-2) — Cleveland won last three games, scoring 33.7 pg; they covered six of last seven games, have 12 TDs on last 29 drives and converted 19 of last 34 3rd down plays. Browns averaged 7.6+ ypa in four of last five games; they’re +6 in turnovers in their five wins, -8 in their three losses. Pitt is 4-0 off Monday’s rout of Ravens, winning by 23-21-21-31 points; they’re just sixth team ever to win their first four home games of season, all by 21+ points. Steelers routed Browns 34-7 in opener on Lake Erie, running ball for 206 yards, starting six of 14 drives in Browns’ territory. Seven of eight Cleveland games went over total, including last four in row.
Rams (0-8) @ Saints (4-4) —Red-hot Brees is 66-88/771 passing in last two games, as Saints rallied from 0-4 start to even record; only 23 of their last 141 plays were run on third down, that tells you how well they’re moving ball. NO scored 14 or less points in all four losses (four TDs on 41 drives), 22+ in their wins (14 TDs on 43 drives). Doubtful winless Rams can offer much resistance; they haven’t scored TD in 46 drives on road, with 16 3/outs and five missed FGs in nine tries. St Louis is 1-7 vs spread this year; five of eight losses are by 14+ points- they’re -9 in turnovers last three games. Six of their eight games stayed under total. Former Saint coach Haslett is Rams’ DC.
Falcons (2-6) @ Panthers (4-4) —Carolina is 0-3 at home, losing by 13-13-24 points, allowing 28.3 pg; they’ve been outscored 53-19 in first half of last five games, and are now down to Carr and Moore at QB, not ideal combo. Panthers beat Atlanta 27-20 in the season opener, running ball for 175 yards, offsetting 31-44/331 passing day by Harrington. Falcons were outscored 44-12 in second half of last four games; they’re 0-4 on road, losing by 21-6-7-6 points, scoring just 9.8 pg (two TDs on 41 drives on road). Odd thing about Atlanta is they have +11 turnover ratio in last five games, and still went 2-3 in those five. Carolina has +6 ratio in turnovers in their last four games.
Eagles (3-5) @ Redskins (5-3) — The legal case involving Reid’s family is huge news in Philly, is casting pall over season that isn’t going well anyway. Philly lost home Monday nighter 20-12 to Washington in first meeting of season, scoring just nine points in four visits to Redskin red zone- in their last 16 visits to red zone, Iggles have just five TDs, with 10 FGs tried (4.07 ppd). Philly also has just one takeaway in last three games, but they have won three of four after loss this season. Skins are 3-1 at home, with wins by 3,31,2 points; they were outscored 41-9 in first half of last two games, but rallied well to pull out OT win over Jets in Swamp last week. Skins’ last three games went over.
Vikings (3-5) @ Packers (7-1)—Rookie RB Peterson set all-time single game rushing mark last week; he is carrying Viking offense that has all three QB’s banged up; they’re 1-3 on road, losing by 3-3-10 points. Pack beat them 23-16 first meeting, at Metrodome, outrushing Vikes 155-46. Red-hot Favre, who averaged more than 10 yards per pass attempt in each of last two games (with wins at Denver, KC in span of six days) was 32-45/322 passing in first meeting vs Vikes, Minnesota is +5 in turnovers last four games; they outrushed foes 925-315 in last four games. Over is 4-1 in Vikings’ last five games, 5-2 in Packers’ last seven contests. Pack is 1-1-1 as favorite, 5-0 as dog this season.
Bengals (2-6) @ Ravens (4-4) —Not much to choose from here; Bengals are 0-4 on road, giving up 33.8 pg; they’ve lost six of last seven games since 27-20 Week 1 win vs Ravens, allowing 3+ TDs in all seven games. Cincy had six takeaways in the opener, have just 10 in seven games since. Ravens on short week after putrid performance in Pittsburgh (lost 38-7, gaining just 107 yards on a rainy night); they’re 3-0 at home, though, winning by 7-3-19 pts; they’re 1-5 vs. spread as favorite this season, covering only vs winless Rams. Bengals gave up 26 TDs on opponents last 74 drives. Four of last five Baltimore games stayed under total.
Bears (3-5) @ Raiders (2-6) — Oakland scored just 12.5 ppg in losing last four games (under 3-0-1), with -7 turnover ratio and only four TDs on last 43 drives; they’re 11 for last 41 on third down, so no one is making plays to move the chains (think they could use Randy Moss, in his current state?) Chicago has just one TD on last 19 drives, is -7 in turnovers last three games (1-8) and has been outrushed 553-218 in last three games- road team won their last four games. Raiders trying to avoid using rookie QB Russell before he is ready, but if losing continues, they’ll have to play him pretty soon. NFC teams were 5-2 vs AFC last week, cutting AFC’s season lead to 20-18.
Cowboys (7-1) @ Giants (6-2) —Big Blue won six in row after 0-2 start, allowing 11.7 pg in last three games (three TDs allowed on last 32 drives); one of losses was 45-35 shootout in Week 1 in Dallas, with total yardage 478-438, Dallas- they had six TDs on 10 drives. Pokes are 4-0 on road, scoring 33.5 pg; six of their seven wins are by 10+ points. Cowboys outscored foes 156-57 in 2nd half of their wins- Pats had 27-10 edge in second half of their only loss. Giants outrushed opponents 705-377 in last four games; they won last three home games by 13-11-18 points. Six of eight Dallas games went over the total. Cowboys pretty much clinch NFC East with win here.
Lions (6-2) @ Cardinals (3-5) —Detroit has 24 takeaways in eight games (+8 ratio); in three games they lost turnover battle, they were crushed (56-21/34-3) and in one game that was even, they nipped Vikings by FG, so if Arizona can avoid miscues (they’re -9 in turnovers last three games, with 10 giveaways) they can pull upset here. Lions are 3-0 since their bye, giving up 10 pg (three TDs on 31 drives); they outscored last three opponents 42-7 in first half, and outrushed last four foes 396-234. Cardinals are 2-1 at home, beating Seattle, Steelers, losing to Carolina- they need to run ball better (42 rushes, 107 yards in last two games). Three of last four Lion games stayed under.
Colts (7-1) @ Chargers (4-4) —No love lost for Manning clan in San Diego after Eli refused to play for Chargers; huge game for 4-4 Bolts, who are still tied for first in AFC West. Bolts are 3-1 at home, with wins by 11-14-25 points; they’ve outscored last five opponents 99-26 in first half of last five games, but they’ve had injuries on defensive front (Vikings had 378 rushing yards last week) which will hurt vs potent Colt offense (scoring 28 pg on road (4-0)). Indy is off first loss; they covered last six games, with last three staying under total. Rivers needs to make more plays for Bolts, who are just 7 for last 24 on third down conversions. Bigger game for San Diego than Indy.
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Monday, November 12
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49ers (2-6) @ Seahawks (4-4) —Seattle scored 33,30 points in last two games, but couldn’t hold 21-6 lead on Lake Erie last week, but they’re still in good shape in division, since other three teams are bad. 49ers lost last six games, with four losses by 18+ points; they have yet to gain 290 yards in any game this season. Hawks won first meeting 23-3 in Candlestick, holding 49ers to 22 net passing yards (that was with Dilfer under center, not Smith). Seattle lost three of last four games, beating winless Rams; three of their four wins are by 14+ points. 49ers are -9 in turnovers last five games, -15 in sacks; this is their third road game in last four weeks. Potentially ugly Monday night game.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:27pm -
0 likes
NFL
Sunday, November 11
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NFL Week 10 trends
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The cheeseheads in Wisconsin will pack Lambeau Field this weekend when the
red-hot Green Bay Packers (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) return home to host the
upset-minded Minnesota Vikings (3-5, 3-3-2).
The Packers return home sitting atop the NFL Central Division and tied with
Dallas for the best record in the conference. However, they can hardly
afford to take the Vikings lightly despite a 23-16 road win in the initial
series encounter.
The underdog in this traditional rivalry had cashed in 16 of the previous 17
meetings until the Packers prevailed as 1-point favorites at the Metrodome.
Green Bay has been a poor investment as home favorites (5-12-1 ATS) and as
division home chalk (3-9 ATS). The Packers have cashed six straight coming
off a non-conference game.
Minnesota has 'covered' nine of its last dozen against Green Bay. The
Vikings have been tripped up in 11 of 13 ATS off an upset win as home dogs.
The 'over' has cashed at a 12-4-1 clip in the last 16 shootouts on the
frozen tundra of Wisconsin. Minnesota has eclipsed the 'total' in 20 of
its
last 28 in November. The Vikings have been on the low side in eight straight
off a double-digit win.
Trends and angles for the remainder of the NFL's Week 10 menu appear below.
JAGUARS (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) at TITANS (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)
Tennessee upset Jacksonville in the season opener as 6 1/2-point road dogs,
13-10. The Titans have won 13 of the past 18 series scrapes (12-6 ATS). The
home team has won and cashed in 11 of the past 16 confrontations and the SU
winner is 23-2 ATS. The Jaguars are 14-4 after losing by 14 points or more
and they have cashed at a 9-2-1 clip as division road dogs. They have also
'covered' six straight off a double-digit SU loss.
BRONCOS (3-5, 1-7) at CHIEFS (4-4, 5-3)
Kansas City has feasted on Denver at Arrowhead Stadium, winning 12 of 16 SU.
The home team in this AFC West rivalry has cashed at a 10-2-1 pace. However,
the Chiefs have failed in seven of 11 as favorites against the Broncos.
Denver is 9-4 with division revenge. The Broncos are also 10-4 as division
dogs of more than one point. Kansas City is 20-7-2 ATS at home after
allowing 30 points or more. Eight of the last 11 series encounters have been
on the high side.
BILLS (4-4, 6-2) at DOLPHINS (0-8, 2-4-2)
Buffalo has cashed four straight versus Miami, but it has lost eight of the
last dozen series showdowns SU on the road. The Bills have 'covered' five
straight this season and they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 trips to the
post. Buffalo is just 2-9-1 as division road favorites. The Dolphins are
2-11 ATS versus division rivals. They have cashed eight of 11 as home dogs
off back-to-back SU losses. The Bills have eclipsed the total in 17 of 26 as
road favorites and in 13 of 16 following a double-digit victory.
BROWNS (5-3, 6-2) at STEELERS (5-2 SU&ATS prior to Monday)
Cleveland will be looking for payback after bowing to Pittsburgh in its home
opener as 4 1/2-point dogs, 34-7. The Steelers have won and cashed seven
straight versus the Browns overall and they are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS at home
in this AFC Central rivalry. The Browns are 11-6-1 as road dogs of seven
points or more and 18-6-1 ATS after scoring 23 points or more. Cleveland has
zipped 'over' at a 15-4-2 pace as division road dogs and Pittsburgh had
followed suit at a 12-1-1 clip as division home favorites prior to Monday's
match with Baltimore.
RAMS (0-8 SU&ATS) at SAINTS (4-4, 3-5)
St. Louis has come up short in nine of its last 10 as double-digit dogs
while New Orleans has floundered in eight of 10 as double-digit favorites.
The Rams are 0-7 as road dogs of 10 1/2 to 14 points and they have failed to
get the green at a 9-28-2 rate versus a non-division opponent. The red-hot
Saints have won four straight after starting the year 0-4. However, they are
1-12 ATS after scoring 28 points or more in back-to-back games when facing
an opponent that's below .500.
FALCONS (2-6, 5-3) at PANTHERS (4-4 SU&ATS)
Carolina drew first blood this season, winning as 3 1/2-point favorites in
Week 3 at Atlanta, 27-20. The Falcons are 11-6-3 ATS in the last 20 series
clashes. The Panthers are 19-6 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in two
straight games and they are 21-11 ATS after losing by double-digits. Atlanta
has dipped 'under' in 17 of 23 on the road, including 11 of its last 12
and
seven straight on road grass. Carolina has knuckled 'under' in 14 straight
as home favorites against division foes. The NFC South foes have been on the
low side in 10 of the past 12 meetings at Bank of America Stadium and in 17
of 22 confrontations overall.
EAGLES (3-5 SU&ATS) at SKINS (5-3, 3-3-2)
The underdog has barked in four of the past five series clashes between
Philadelphia and Washington. The Eagles are 18-11 ATS versus division foes
on the highway. They have also 'covered' at a 15-8-1 clip against the
Redskins. Washington is 9-19 as division home favorites and 4-9 as series
chalk. Philadelphia has strayed 'under' in 14 of its last 20 as division
dogs on the road and in 13 of 17 on the highway after yielding 28 points or
more. These NFC East rivals have slipped below the 'total' in 11 of 14
meetings at D.C.
BENGALS (2-6, 2-5-1) at RAVENS (4-3, 1-6 prior to Monday)
Baltimore has won and cashed eight of its last 11 versus Cincinnati in Charm
City. The favorite has clicked in nine of the last 11 showdowns and the SU
winner is 20-2 ATS. The Bengals had 'covered' six straight on the road
versus division foes until coming up short at Cleveland in their road opener
this year. Cincinnati has zipped 'over' in 10 of 11 as division road dogs
and the Ravens have followed suit in 11 of 16 as division home favorites.
BEARS (3-5, 2-6) at OAKLAND (2-6, 3-5)
Chicago has 'covered' 13 of 19 when facing teams from the AFC West, though
it came up short in its first two chances this season. The Bears are 21-9
ATS on the road in Weeks 10-13 and 23-8 away from home in November. However,
they are only 4-11-1 ATS on the road versus teams from the AFC. Oakland is
6-18 as home dogs of seven points or less and it has failed to get the green
in 15 of 20 as home overall. The Raiders have cashed 10 of 15 as
short-enders when facing a team from the NFC. Chicago has topped the 'total'
in 15 of 20 as favorites and in six straight after allowing 17 points or
less in two straight games. Oakland has bounced 'under' in 13 of 17 as home
dogs and in 14 of 16 at home after the first month of the season.
COWBOYS (7-1, 5-2-1) at GIANTS (6-2, 5-3)
The New York Giants are 11-5-1 ATS at home versus Dallas. The Giants have
cashed 22 of 32 at home after allowing 10 points or less. Dallas is 6-15-1
off a double-digit division win. The Cowboys have cashed 11 of 14 the week
after facing Philadelphia.
LIONS (5-3, 5-2-1) at CARDS (3-5, 5-2-1)
Detroit is 5-16 ATS after two or more straight wins. Arizona is 23-8 ATS at
home after three or more straight losses. The Lions are 2-10 ATS on the
highway off a SU victory. The Cards are 11-6 ATS after losing by seven
points or less.
COLTS (7-1, 5-1-2 ATS) at CHARGERS (4-4 SU&ATS)
Indianapolis is 8-3 as road favorites off a SU loss and 14-6-2 as road chalk
of 3 1/2 points or less. The Colts have also cashed at an 18-5-1 clip versus
non-division foes on the highway. San Diego is 14-5-2 ATS after losing SU as
favorites. However, the Chargers are 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game and
1-6 ATS at home in November off a double-digit spread loss. Indianapolis has
blown 'over' in 15 of 18 on the road when facing a team from the AFC West.
San Diego has been on the high side in six of eight at home following a
double-digit loss.
49ERS (2-6, 2-5-1) at SEAHAWKS
Seattle trounced San Francisco as 1-point road favorites in the initial
confrontation this year, 23-3. The 49ers are 20-8 ATS on Monday Night
Football and 36-17 ATS when playing their second straight game on the road.
The 'under' is 5-2-1 in the last eight series clashes. The Seahawks have
knuckled 'under' at a 16-4-1 clip as division favorites at home.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:28pm -
0 likes
NFL
Total bias: Week 10 over/under plays
Sunday, November 11
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NFL over/under picks
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans over 35
I know the last time the Jags and Titans played each other the final score resembled a baseball boxscore, but I think things will be different this time around.
There's a good chance Jacksonville will have its starting QB back, which should be a big plus for the offense. David Garrard was playing flawlessly before a high ankle sprain put him on the shelf.
Titans running back LenDale White has rushed for 100 or more yards in each of the last three weeks, and there'll be no Marcus Stroud clogging up the middle. The Pro Bowl defensive tackle begins his four-game suspension (steroids) this weekend.
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers under 48
The Colts' lack of depth at receiver was exposed last week. If Marvin Harrison plays you have to assume he's still not all the way back from his knee injury. Indy is a much better team when they stick to the ground game. That should be the game plan seeing how poorly the Chargers did against the run last weekend.
Phillip Rivers concerns me. He doesn't read or respond well to the blitz. I've got a feeling the defensive-end tandem of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney will be in Rivers' grill most of the game.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks under 39
The 49ers couldn't gain 10 yards even if you gave their offense six cracks. Star back Frank Gore is banged up and the offensive line is in shambles. Throw in a quarterback with a bum shoulder and you've got the formula for a great under club.
The Seahawks are now one-dimensional with the football. If anyone knows where the real Shaun Alexander is could you please page him? The guy is killing my fantasy team. My crystal ball says there should be an abundance of kicking and punting on Monday night. Hope you?re a fan of special teams.
Last week's record: 1-2
Season record: 15-12
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posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:28pm -
0 likes
NFL
Sunday, November 11
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Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet for Week 10
Buffalo at Miami (+3)
Why Bills Cover: Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Miami. J.P. Losman has thrown more touchdowns (7) against Miami than any other opponent. Won five of last six meetings with Dolphins, including both last season.
Why Dolphins cover: Averaging 4.6 points per game more than Buffalo. Miami’s sixth-best pass defense facing league’s second-worst offense.
Total (40 ½): Over is 5-1 in Dolphins’ last six vs. AFC and 4-1 in Bills’ last five games as a road favorite.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-10)
Why Browns cover: Averaging 33.7 points in their last three games, all victories. Both Willie Parker (knee) and Ben Roethlisberger (hip) are suffering from injuries.
Why Steelers cover: Have won eight straight matchups with Cleveland, outscoring them 231- 94. Are holding opponents to 12.2 points per game while scoring 27.8. Haven’t lost at home this season. Browns are 0-7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Favorite is 6-0-1 ATS in last seven meetings.
Total (47 ½): Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings and 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in Pittsburgh.
Denver at Kansas City (-3)
Why Broncos cover: Travis Henry has rushed for 250 yards in two career games versus Kansas City. Chiefs will be without leading rusher Larry Johnson, which means 34-year-old Priest Holmes will get the bulk of the carries.
Why Chiefs cover: Broncos QB Jay Cutler will play with a leg injury. Home team is 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings and has won eight straight. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Kansas City.
Total (37 ½): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City and 8-3 in the last 11 meetings overall.
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4)
Why Jaguars cover: Have won two of last three meetings in Tennessee. Are 3-1 ATS on the road this year compared to 1-3 at home. Titans have running back issues with LenDale White dealing with a toe injury, Chris Henry facing a suspension and Chris Brown returning from an ankle injury.
Why Titans cover: Rushed for 282 yards in Week 1 against a Jacksonville team that will now be without run-stopper Marcus Stroud who is suspended. Jags QB Quinn Gray is only completing 49.3 percent of his pass attempts. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Jaguars are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 meetings and 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in Tennessee.
Total (35): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Minnesota at Green Bay (-6)
Why Vikings cover: Are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Green Bay. Adrian Peterson is having a record-setting year and poses matchup difficulties for any team. Packers will be without run-stopping safety Nick Collins who has a sprained knee. Road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Why Packers cover: Are 3-1 at home this year while the Vikings are 1-3 on the road. Have won last three meetings. Two of Minnesota’s three QBs are banged up. Brooks Bollinger will start if Tarvaris Jackson (concussion) can’t go. Packers have NFC’s sixth-ranked defense while Vikings have 30th-ranked pass offense. Donald Driver has 546 yards receiving and four touchdowns in his last five games versus Minnesota.
Total (40 ½): Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
Philadelphia at Washington (-3)
Why Eagles cover: Are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Washington with six wins in their last seven visits. Donovan McNabb has thrown for 1,283 yards and eight touchdowns (3 INTs) in five career games versus the Redskins.
Why Redskins cover: Are 3-1 ATS at home. Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Only allowing 14.8 points per game at home. Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Total: (38): Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings and 4-0-2 in the last six meetings in Washington.
St. Louis at New Orleans (-11 ½)
Why Rams cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in New Orleans. Expected to have Steven Jackson back from injury. Marc Bulger threw for 358 yards and had two TDs in their last meeting. Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and has won six of the last 10. Drew Brees threw for 139 yards and two interceptions in his only game versus St. Louis. Reggie Bush will play with a bruised knee.
Why Saints cover: Have won four straight after starting 0-4, covering in three of those victories. Averaging 31.3 points in their last three games. Rams are 1-7 ATS this season and only averaging 12.4 points per game.
Total (46): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Atlanta at Carolina (-4)
Why Falcons cover: Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings, winning all four games. Immobile Panthers QB Vinny Testaverde will play with an Achilles injury. Both wins this season have come at home.
Why Panthers cover: Have won four of last five meetings. DeShaun Foster has 574 yards rushing and five touchdowns in last five games against Atlanta. Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings and only averaging 9.8 points per game on the road.
Total (36): Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Carolina.
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-4 ½)
Why Bengals cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Carson Palmer has thrown nine TDs in his last five games against Baltimore. Will have WR Chris Henry back from suspension. In their last three meetings Cincy has held Willis McGahee to 168 yards and no touchdowns.
Why Ravens cover: Ray Lewis called out the offense after embarrassing loss to Pittsburgh last week. Have third-best defense in NFL. Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Favorite is 13-3 ATS in last 16 meetings. Bengals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Baltimore.
Total (44 ½): Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Baltimore.
Chicago at Oakland (+3)
Why Bears cover: Raiders are 0-4 in their last four home games and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 home games overall. Josh McCown replaced Daunte Culpepper at QB for Oakland last week and threw three interceptions. Raiders haven’t won since September.
Why Raiders cover: Home team has won last three contests. Are averaging 100 yards rushing in their last three games thanks largely to Justin Fargas. Chicago has NFC’s worst run defense at 130.9 yards per game. Bears are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Total (38): Under is 14-5-1 in Oakland’s last 20 games.
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (+1 ½)
Why Cowboys cover: Averaging 405.8 yards and 33.1-points per game. Tank Johnson will play in his first game for Dallas. Held bruising running back Brandon Jacobs to 26 yards on the ground in Week 1. Plaxico Burress is dealing with an ankle injury.
Why Giants cover: Have won six straight games. Eli Manning has thrown 12 TDs in six games against Dallas. Home team is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 meetings. Tony Romo has thrown six interceptions in his last five games against New York. Cowboys are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in New York.
Total (49): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in New York. Teams combined for 80-points in Week 1.
Detroit at Arizona (-1)
Why Lions cover: Coming off impressive 44-7 rout of Denver last week. Have won three of last four against Arizona. Holding opponents to 10 points per game in their last three while averaging 27.7. Cardinals have lost three straight, averaging 13 points in those contests.
Why Cardinals cover: Anquan Boldin has 352 yards receiving and two touchdowns in his last three games against Detroit. Favorite is 5-0 ATS in last five meetings. Home team is 7-0 ATS in last seven meetings. Lions are 0-4 ATS in last four meetings in Arizona. Jon Kitna has been limited in practice this week due to a sore shoulder.
Total (45): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
Indianapolis at San Diego (+3 ½)
Why Colts cover: Are 4-0 on the road. Holding LaDainian Tomlinson to 78.5 yards rushing in their last two meetings. Road team is 5-2 ATS in last seven meetings. Chargers gave up 296 yards rushing to Adrian Peterson last week, an NFL record.
Why Chargers cover: Are 3-1 ATS and straight-up at home. Will want to rebound from embarrassing 35-17 loss to Minnesota last week. Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Peyton Manning has thrown five interceptions in four games against San Diego.
Total (48 ½): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
San Francisco at Seattle (-10)
Why 49ers cover: Are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 Monday Night Football games. Frank Gore is expected to return from an ankle injury and has averaged 110 rushing yards per game against the Seahawks in his career.
Why Seahawks cover: In his last five games against the Niners, Matt Hasselbeck has thrown 11 touchdown passes while averaging 249 yards per game. Could have receiver Deion Branch back from injury. The 49ers sport the NFL’s worst offense and are only averaging 13 points per game.
Total (39 ½): Under is 7-1 in San Francisco’s last eight versus NFC West.
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 3:28pm -
0 likes
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 57-59-5 (-286.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 55-57-4 (-180.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 0-2-1 (-82.50 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!
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Friday, November 9
Rutgers Scarlet Knights -20 (10 Units)
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights were my play of the year in the BIG EAST CONFERENCE last week against UConn and we all know how that went. Not only did they not win and cover the +1 points against the Huskies but they lost the game 38-19 and pretty much blew their shot at winning this Conference (not like it was gonna happen anyways). I know the big knock on this team was that they had not faced any valid opponents on the road this season and although that remains true (well UConn is good but they lost to them), what Rutgers really needs is to move outside the Big East and pickup where they left off prior to starting play in the Big East. Heading into Conference play, the Scarlet Knights were 3-1 straight up and 2-1 ATS in those games and they had looked good in blowout wins over Buffalo, Navy and Norfolk State. This is a tough team to understand because they have the actual talent to reach a BCS Bowl Game (well they did heading into the season) but they can't seem to string together three straight good games. They went from beating South Florida one week to getting crushed against the Mountaineers another week. The last time Rutgers came here was in 2003 and they won by 16 points but that was a Rutgers team that went 5-7 and doesn't have anywhere near as much fire power as today's team. The Scarlet Knights come into this game averaging 30.6 points per game this season and they have done that on 462.6 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.5 yards per play. The scary part for Army is that they have allowed 26.2 points per game this season and have allowed a whopping 413.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play. WOW are they in trouble here. On the ground, we all know what RB Ray Rice can do and he has led this team to 179.3 rushing yards per game this season and 4.6 yards per carry in those games. I have a feeling Rice is going to come close to 200+ yards rushing in this game as Army has allowed 212.7 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry and have one of the worst run defenses in College Football. In the air, QB Mike Teel has not been great but he has completed 58.1% of his passes for 2467 passing yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. He is up aganist an Army secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 66.1% of thier passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass attempt which is perfect for Teel because he is very accurate with the long ball and the running game should help setup huge passes to WR's Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt. Teel makes mistakes but Army has picked off less than one pass per game this season and they don't have a pass rush that could ever get anywhere near this Rutgers offensive line. Army does force a lot of turnovers but even if the Scarlet Knights fumble once or twice in this game, they'll have too much of a lead that it wont matter. Rutgers should have no problems running holes into the Michie Stadium turf and I don't see how this Army defense can come close to stopping these guys at all. Rutgers offense could have its best performance of the season in this one.
The Army Black Knights (funny how they play against the Scarlet Knights) were not supposed to be any better than the 3-9 squad of 2006 and let me tell you that better, they are definitely not. Army comes into this game having already matched the three win total of last season but their remaining games are not really winnable so they can once again forget about going to a Bowl Game. New head coach Stan Brock has done what he can with this team but they have not responded well. Their three wins this season have come against I-AA Rhode Island back in September (barely), they somehow beat Temple as six point favorites back in September and they managed to beat Tulane on homecoming weekend as six points favorites although failing to cover the spread in that game. If you look at some of their games against better teams, you will notice that they lost to Boston College by 20, Central Michigan by 24, Georgia Tech by 24 and Air Force by 20. The last three games listed were the last three games this team has played and they have not been pretty. Looking back on their last meeting with Rutgers in 2003, the score was a lot closer than the actual way the game went as Rutgers completely dominated but gave up a bunch of late points. Army comes into this game averaging only 17.2 points per game this season and they have done it on only 271.8 total yards of offense per game and only 4.1 yards per play which has to be amongst the weakest in the Country. Rutgers has allowed only 22.1 points per game this season and they have also allowed 326.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Army has absolutely no hope of moving the ball as they average only 76.6 rushing yards per game this season on 2.3 yards per carry. Rutgers has been good against the run as they have allowed 162.2 rushing yards per game but on only 3.9 yards per carry this season. That leaves everything up to QB Carson Williams in a bad spot here because he has completed only 50.9% of his passes this season for only 1281 passing yards, 6.0 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Rutgers secondary has been deadly and has allowed opponents to complete only 52.5% of their passes this season for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt this season. The Army offensive line has had big time problems and injury issues and they have allowed 2.7 sacks per home game which can't be good because Rutgers defensive line is tough and they average almost 3.0 sacks per game this season meaning Williams is in trouble here. Rutgers has not had luck with interceptions this season but I expect them to get a few in this game as Army QB's are throwing 1.7 interceptions per game this season. The Black Knights have also fumbled 17 times this season and lost 8 of those fumbles which means that they are a lock to lose the ball once or twice in this game which should definitely result in quick point scoring strikes by Rutgers. Army has absolutely nothing that can threaten the Scarlet Knights defense for more than a touchdown in this game and I don't think the offense is going to look good at all.
I know what Vegas is doing here guys. This is a freebie for everyone who pushed on Central Michigan Tuesday night, lost on Ohio Wednesday night and lost on West Virginia and TCU on Thursday night. All four of those plays were public plays and all four of them went down the toilet. So this is a gift from Vegas to let bettors regain confidence heading into the weekend. Don't believe my theory? Just sit there and watch and lets see what happens here. We have seen this in the past where the public gets their asses handed to them all week and then come Friday night, they continue to pound away on the obvious play only to finally be rewarded for their effort and given hope heading into the weekend. Rutgers is not looking to come to Toronto to play in the INTERNATIONAL BOWL and that's exactly what's going to happen with the way things are going. They have three very winnable games left on their schedule and this is a great chance to showcase Ray Rice one more time on TV before he takes off for the NFL. Prior to this season, Rutgers had not covered the spread as a road favorite since the 2003 season going 0-5 ATS since then but they broke that streak this year with a win and cover against Syracuse earlier this year. This game should make them 2-0 ATS as road favorites this season. Rutgers has been one of the only teams you can rely on when it comes to non-conference play.
Trend of the Game: Rutgers is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Rutgers 31, Army 7
Saturday, November 10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +9 (10 Units)
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have been one of the most profitable football wagers over the course of the last two seasons. They were an impressive 8-4 ATS in 2006 and are currently 6-3 ATS this season with three games remaining before a Bowl Game. No matter what you think of this Wake Forest program and no matter how much you think they are badly overachieving like they were last season, you have to respect the fact that they were 5-0 ATS as road underdogs last season and are 1-1 ATS in that spot this season with their only loss coming against Boston College where they had several in-game injury issues and pretty much had that game covered for quite some time. The Demon Deacons are coming off a devastating loss to Virginia last weekend despite covering the +1.5 spread and losing 17-16. Jim Grobe has done a good enough job with this team that they can easily bounce back from this and come out flying in this game. History is not on the Deacons side here seeing how they are 2-21 when playing in Clemson since 1963 and it has been almost 10 years since they last won a game here. I am not concerned at all however because this is a team that doesn't stop surprising and this number is way to high to begin with. Wake Forest comes into this game averaging 28.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 342.0 total yards of offense per game 4.8 yards per play which is not all that impressive but consider that they were without their starting QB for a while. Clemson's defense has been very good allowing 18.8 points per game this season and allowing only 284.7 total yards of offense in those games on 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, Wake Forest has not been as effective running the ball as they have in the past as they average only 149.9 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry this season. They are up against a Clemson defense that has allowed 127.6 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry this season so at least we know Wake can move forward at times. In the air, QB Riley Skinner has been outstanding, completing 73.2% of his passes this season for 1412 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. He is up against a Clemson secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 55.0% of their passes for 5.3 yards per pass attempt this season. Interceptions are going to be key in this game because Skinner tends to make a lot of ill-advised throws, despite the good completion rate, and Clemon has intercepted 11 passes this season so he needs to be careful. Wake Forest has been very good at holding onto the ball and avoiding turnovers as they have lost only 5 fumbles in nine games this season which is huge because it can change a game just like that. Wake Forest is a lot better on offense this season than they were last season and I think this unit can put enough points on the board to keep this game within a touchdown and possibly win the game straight up. We saw the Clemson defense fold a few weeks ago against the Virginia Tech offense and I believe that Wake Forest is capable of putting just as much pressure on the Tigers in this game.
The Clemson Tigers are a team that I have never really gotten along with this season and past seasons but they finally cashed a big winner for me last week as they beat the crap out of Duke as 17 point road favorites and brought home the bacon on that one. Ever since their BYE WEEK back in mid-October, this Clemson team has come out looking like a team on a mission and a team that is going put some serious pressure on Boston College for the ACC Atlantic Division championship. They are currently only one game behind Boston College as they have a 7-2 record on the season. I have concerns for Clemson backers in this game for the simple fact that the Tigers have played only two conference home games all season and one of them was back on the first week of September when they hosted Florida State on a Monday Night. Clemson won that game by only six points and in their latest conference home game, got blown out by Virginia Tech to the tune of 41-23 as five point favorites in that game. So dating back to the last two conference home games of last season, the Tigers have now gone four conference home games without winning by more than six points which really has to concern some of you seeing how the spread is almost at 10. Playing against Duke, Maryland and Central Michigan does not really prepare you for the speedy athletes on this Wake Forest team, that's for sure. Clemson comes into this game averaging 36.2 points per game this season and they have done that on 425.9 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play which is impressive considering they returned only 5 starters on offense this season. Wake Forest has been pretty stingy on defense as they have allowed 22.2 points per game this season and allowed 345.4 total yards of offense in those games on 4.7 yards per play (only 0.3 less than Clemson's defense this season). On the ground, we all know how much Clemson likes to pound away with RB's CJ Spiller and James Davis who have led the team to 167.9 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. Wake Forest has been pretty good against the run however as they have allowed only 121.0 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.3 yards per carry which should throw off the balance of the Clemson offense. In the air, QB Cullen Harper has completed 65.2% of his passes this season for 2166 passing yards, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 23 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. Wow that's incredible. He is going up against a Wake Forest defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 53.3% of their passes this season for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt and I strongly think this defense can come up with some big plays. Dean Hood's defense is getting better and better by the week of experience. Clemson's offensive line is one of the weakest in the ACC Conference and they have allowed 26 sacks in only nine games games this season which is almost 3.0 sacks per game. Wake Forest has some very good pass rushers and they are averaging 2.4 sacks per game this season which means Harper is going to have pressure on him all afternoon. The Deacons have forced 19 fumbles this season and recovered an impressive 12 of them so a Clemson team that has fumbled 13 times this season needs to be careful. I think the Clemson offense is going to score some points in this one but this is a Wake Forest team that takes full advantage of their opportunities and I really like their playmaking abilities on the defensive side of things.
You can argue all you want that Clemson is the better team and that Clemson is just too strong for the Deacons. Well it makes sense right? Clemson went to Wake Forest last season and beat the Deacons 27-17 as 16 point road underdogs so since Clemson is better this year and since Wake Forest is not as good as last year, the Tigers should win this one easy right? NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! Wake Forest is averaging 7.2 more points per game this season than they were averaging last season so they have a much better chance of keeping up this time around seeing how their defense has played well enough to win games. This game means everything in the race for the ACC Atlantic Division as both Clemson and Wake Forest trail Boston College in the standings but can easily makeup ground with a win here and some Boston College losses this weekend or down the road. Wake Forest would jump into second place if they can win this game and should Clemson beat Boston College next week and Wake Forest win their game, they could be a in a tie for first place by the end of next weekend. Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS in their last four games and are playing like every game is their last while Clemson is already looking ahead to the Boston College game next weekend. Also keep in mind that Wake Forest blew a 17-3 third quarter lead in last year's game so don't expect that to happen again.
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 11-1 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog.
Wake Forest 30, Clemson 27
Michigan Wolverines -2.5 (10 Units)
The Michigan Wolverines as you guys already know have been written off by everyone as potential BCS Bowl contender and as BCS Championship Game Contender. It makes sense right I mean after losing their season opening game against I-AA Appalachian State and then following that up with another loss this time against Oregon, why would anyone care what they have done since? Well to tell you the truth, Appalachian State was defending I-AA champions, Oregon is one of the top five teams in the Country and probably heading to a BCS Game (pending disaster the last few weeks of the season) and believe it or not, the Wolverines have gone 8-0 since that loss to Oregon and are 6-2 ATS in the process. So had it not been for the two losses at the beginning of the year, this Michigan team would probably be ranked #1 or #2 behind Ohio State and that would make the big game next weekend almost as big as last year's meeting when the two teams met as the #1 and #2 teams in the Country. Well that's all in the past but what I do know is that Michigan is surging to that home game against Ohio State next weekend and despite the danger of looking ahead. Michigan has completely dominated this series with Wisconsin whether you like to admit it or not and I don't see why anyone would go against them after they beat both Illinois and Michigan State as road favorites over the span of the last three weeks. The Wolverines come into this game averaging 28.9 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 407.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play in those games. Wisconsin's defense has been solid but has also been very beatable this season as they have allowed 22.5 points per game on the year and allowed 338.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, RB Mike Hart continues to lead this team to good things and the Wolverines average 193.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry. Wisconsin's defense has had problems stopping the run all season long as they have been rushed on for 148.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry which means Hart can really control the tempo of this game. In the air, QB Chad Henne has completed has completed 61.5% of his passes this season for 1469 yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions which is good and pretty much how Henne has been his entire career. Wisconsin's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.5% of their passes this season for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt which means they will probably keep things short in this game and force Michigan to move the sticks many times on drives. That's where the running game comes in because it will soften up this secondary and allow Henne to go play action and hit some deep balls like he loves doing. Wisconsin's defense has been steady but only steady. I mean they don't force turnovers (only 7 interceptions and 5 recovered fumbles all season) and when you don't win the turnover battle in any of your games, you're definitely not getting anywhere fast. Michigan is just too much to handle because they rarely make mistakes with the ball (despite losing 11 fumbles this season and throwing 9 interceptions). Okay Michigan does have a problem holding onto the football but like I said before, Wisconsin just doesn't have any big playmakers on this defense and they won't be able to force the Wolverines into making those mistakes. Michigan beat these guys at home by 14 points last season and seeing how they are a much better road team, I think they get the job done once again.
The Wisconsin Badgers came into this season with not only BIG 10 Championship aspirations but also BCS National Title aspirations. That probably makes you laugh now but the were returning 16 starters combined on both sides of the ball and looked like a team that could give both Michigan and Ohio State a good run for their money. Well those aspirations and dreams ended on October 6 when the Badgers went to Illinois and lost to Ron Zook and the Fighting Illini 31-26. That loss was followed by another loss to Penn State in a crushing 38-7 blowout loss which pretty ended both BIG 10 and National Title thoughts. The Badgers showed what they are really made of last week with a 38-17 loss to Ohio State on the road which put the final nails in the conference aspirations coffin. Michigan has been relentless in this series in the past and have won 7 of the last 8 games in this matchup. Had it not been for a lucky last second strile in 2005, the Badgers would not have a win over Michigan in ages. You have to be impressed by Wisconsin in recent home games as they have allowed only 6 points in their last two home games but that was against Indiana and Northern Illinois so playing against Michigan is going to be like a wakeup slap in the face for these guys who allowed 30+ points at home against Michigan State and Citadel this season. The Badgers come into this game averaging 28.8 points per game on the season and they have done that by averaging 404.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Michigan's defense has been tremendous since the first two weeks of the season as they have allowed only 19.2 points per game this season and allowed only 320.9 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in those games. ***INJURY ALERT*** RB PJ Hill is out again this week so his 1066 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry and 15 touchdowns will be dearly missed for a team that averages 186.1 rushing yards per game on the season for 4.2 yards per carry. Without Hil it's going to be tough for this team to penetrate a Michigan defense that has allowed 134.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry. That leaves the task up to QB Tyler Donovan who has completed 59.1% of his passes this season for 2093 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Michigan's secondary has bounced back nicely and has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 56.0% of their passes this season for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which means that if Wisconsin goes down early in this game, they probably won't be able to come back against a defense that no longer allows big yardage plays. The Wolverines secondary is very impressive as they have picked off 13 passes this season and that's mainly because of the defensive line and their ability to pressure the QB like they have. The Wolverines have 31 sacks on the season and that's bad news for a Wisconsin offensive line that has allowed 29 sacks in ten games this season. The Wolverines are also relentless in terms of attacking the ball and forcing fumbles as they have forced a whopping 25 fumbles this season and recovered 14 of those fumbles. Wisconsin has had problems against aggressive defenses like that as they have lost 8 fumbles on the season and could be under immense pressure from this defense. I think Wisconsin is going to have all sorts of problems putting points on the board in this game without Hill and the Michigan defense has always showed up to play in this place. Give me the Wolverines to dominate on both sides of the ball in this game.
WISCONSIN HAS NEVER EVER WON TWO STRAIGHT HOME GAMES AGAINST MICHIGAN! As a matter of fact, Michigan is a whopping 48-11-1 straight up all-time versus the Badgers and in those 60 games have managed to hold Wisconsin to an incredible 10.0 points per game. So after beating the Wolverines at home back in 2005, I don't think the odds of Wisconsin doing it agains are that good since they have never done it before against the Wolverines. RB PJ Hill is out for Wisconsin and I'll be honest with you guys...the only reason Wisconsin has 18 wins over the course of the last two seasons is because of Hill and his great ability to power run and move the chains. The offense is based around Hill and he is not going to play in this game (see what happened to them last week against the Buckeyes?). The Badgers have probably packed it in for the season after their loss last weekend and despite heading to another Bowl Game, they are not as motivated as they would usually be for this game. Michigan is one of the hottest teams in the Country right now, they have been one of the best ATS road teams in the Country over the last few years and I am betting on them large to win and cover this game.
Trend of the Game: Michigan is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Michigan 34, Wisconsin 10
Air Force Falcons -3.5 (25 Units)
The Air Force Falcons won't feel the same coming into South Bend this weekend for the first time in ages without Fisher DeBerry. However that might be a good thing for these guys as they had not won many games in South Bend with DeBerry and the new Troy Calhoun era seems to be taking a turn for the good in recent weeks. Air Force is an impressive 7-3 on the season right now and they are automatically going to a Bowl Game as of right now. Air Force has not only won 7 games but they are a very impressive 7-2 ATS on the season and have been misunderstood by oddsmakers all year because of their new coach and because they had only 12 combined returning starters on both sides of the ball. Well the Falcons have now covered the spread in five straight games despite losing to New Mexico in a very close road game a few weeks back. I know it's not too encouraging to bet on these guys because of the way they have played in some road games but they are definitely the play here. They did beat Utah 20-12 in their first road game of the season but then got crushed by BYU the following week and Navy the week after. However, I was impressed with their 45-21 win at Colorado State and impressed with a game they shoulda won in New Mexico. The Falcons come into this game averaging 25.7 points per game this season and they have done that on 395.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. Notre Dame's defense has been decent this season but they have still allowed a whopping 31.4 points per game this season and allowed 368.9 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, we all know how well Air Force can run the rock as they average 272.8 rushing yards per game this season and have done that on 5.1 yards per carry which is really bad news for Notre Dame because the one thing they can't do is stop the run. The Irish have allowed a whopping 199.0 rushing yards per game this season and have allowed 4.3 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Shaun Carney has completed 62.6% of his passes this season for 1202 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. The Notre Dame pass defense has been decent as opposing QB's have completed only 53.7% of their passes against them this season for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which won't do much against a team that averages only 16.4 pass attempts per game this season. You can stack the box all you want against these guys, Carney will make you pay for it by throwing deep. The Irish defense has 9 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries on the season which should get them one or two turnovers in this game but other than that they just can't stop the run and Air Force is going to have a fun time running all over the Irish defense. It's not like Notre Dame has an offense that can counter with strikes against AF so the defense is going to be tired and allow a bunch of points because of a useless offense...something that has been the case all year long. Air Force actually dominated their meeting last year but somehow lost anyways despite all the time of possession advantage and everything. This should be interesting to see what Calhoun can do in his South Bend debut. I'm willing to bet it's more than DeBerry did here the last 10 years.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish just keep trucking along hoping this season is going to end at some point in the next few weeks. Well it will guys and your sorry asses are not going to a Bowl Game now and not going to a Bowl Game for a long time to come. The Irish have definitely been the biggest disappointment in College Football this season (almost like my betting record in CFB) and I don't see them turning things around before the end of this season. Notre Dame is now a pathetic 1-8 on the season with their one and only win coming on the road agianst a depledted UCLA team but that was more than a month ago. The Irish are a big fat 0-5 straight up at home this season and are an even more pathetic 1-4 ATS in those games having only covered the spread once and that was against Boston College (by 0.5). Like I said before, after losing the heartbreaker in overtime against Navy last week, I don't see why the Irish would be motivated to bounce back and win this game. Navy was +3 last week and they won and covered so I find it a bit strange that the Irish went from -3 last week to +3.5 this week against another service academy when they almost won the game last week. I smell a big time trap for Notre Dame backers in this one. The Irish come into this game averaging a paltry 13.8 points per game despite putting up 44 points last week against Navy. They also average only 208.4 total yards of offense per game this season on 3.1 yards per play and this has to be their worst offensive team ever. Air Force is actually playing good defense this season as they have allowed only 18.5 points per game on the year after allowing 25+ points per game the last three seasons. Wanna know more about Defensive Coordinator Tim DeRuyter...keep reading further down. The Falcons have allowed only 347.6 total yards of offense per game this season on 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, Notre Dame still does not have a running threat to speak of as they average 56.4 rushing yards per game on the season and average only 1.6 yards per carry with only 7 rushing touchdowns all season. Air Force has been good against the run allowing only 141.8 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Jimmy Clausen is back in as the starter and he has completed 57.4% of his passes this season for 618 passing yards, only 4.4 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 5 interceptions. OUCH. So much for one of the top recruits in the Country. Air Force has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 56.7% of their passes this season for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt but the Irish just can't get things going. The offensive line as probably the worst in the entire Country as they have allowed 45 sacks in only nine games this season while Air Force has a very good pass rush and will probably get to Clausen several times in this game with their 2.1 sacks per game on the season. Clausen has thrown 5 interceptions this season and needs to worry here as Air Force has 1.4 interceptions per game on the year and they have also forced 1.5 fumbles per game. I mention that because Notre Dame has fumbled 20 times this season and lost 10 of those fumbles. Someone has to explain to me how Notre Dame can improve on offense this week? They can't...Air Force is much better defensively than Navy...by a mile and I don't see the Irish getting many points here. Still don't know about DC Tim DeRuyter? Than keep reading guys...
The public will be the public and the squares will continue to bet on Notre Dame thinking that this team has an inch of hope of turning things around this season under Charlie Weiss. Well they don't. Don't be fooled by the big name of the program, look more at what they have done on the field and what they can do on the field this weekend that is different from past games. The answer is...NOTHING! Once again I am giving 100% credit for the Falcons success to Air Force DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR TIM DERUYTER. For those of you who don't know who he is...he has coached at three different school and has 15 years of coaching experience at those schools and of those 15 years, his teams have always been ranked among the National Leaders. Well he's done it again with a bad defense and turned them into the #18 defense in the Nation after they allowed 25+ points per game the last three seasons. Notre Dame has won 16 straight games against Service Academies heading into last week and we all know how that ended up (loss to Navy). The party is over in South Bend and the future is bleak for everyone involved. Air Force is better than Navy this season and there is no way these guys allow 40+ points against the Irish. Mr. DeRuyter...the floor is yours. Don't know why this guy doesn't have a job with a bigger school yet?
Trend of the Game: Notre Dame is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Air Force 27, Notre Dame 10
Utah State Aggies +24 (10 Units)
The Boise State Broncos are not a team I usually fade but that only applies on their smurf turf and not in road game situations like this one. I was fooled by these guys a few weeks back when I thought Fresno State could handle what they in store for them but I was dead wrong and Broncos really proved me wrong on that one. However, I would like to point out that Boise State is 2-8 ATS in road games where they are favored by 10 points or more and that goes all the way back to the 2004 season...so yeah they are not worth the price of admission as road favorites of too many points. How about last year when they were -36 at New Mexico State and won 40-28? How about last year when they were -21 at Idaho and won 42-26? How about last year at San Jose State when they were -14 and won 23-20? How about the year before that at Hawaii where they were -10 and won 44-41? Get my drift here guys...this team should never be favored by this many points away from home and that has been an insiders secret for quite some time now. Another good example would be their game at Louisiana Tech this season where they were -16.5 and won 45-31...once again failing to cover the large road chalk as they have done for many seasons now. The Broncos come into this game averaging 41.8 points per game this season and they have done that on an impressive 481.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. The Utah State defense has been brutal this season allowing 35.3 points per game and allowing a whopping 448.6 total yards of offense on 6.4 yards per play in those games. However, my play is not based on defense for the Aggies, it's based on ability to keep up. On the ground, the Broncos have once again bene prolific running the ball as they average 207.1 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry this season and they should have no problems running the Aggies into the ground as they have allowed 204.3 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. Not a problem if you ask me. In the air, QB Taylor Tharp has completed 66.8% of his passes this season for 2274 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 21 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. The Aggies defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 68.1% of their passes this season for 8.1 yards per pass attempt and like I said before, stopping the Broncos won't be an easy thing to do in this game. However there is hope because as well as Tharp has played this season, he still makes mistakes and has thrown a lot of interceptions which can't be good against a secondary that takes a lot of chances and has 10 interceptions in nine games this season. The Aggies have also forced 17 fumbles and do have some players who can cause havoc for opposing teams that have turnover problems like Boise State who have fumbled 15 times in nine games this season. It could be those one or two turnovers that make the difference in this game and besides, Boise State takes 7.6 penalties per game this season and they are just no built to win these games big.
The Utah State Aggies are one of the only winless teams left in the Country right now but that doesn't make them the worst team in the Nation...not by any means. The Aggies have had some tough luck and were supposed to be a lot more competitive than the 1-11 Aggies from one season ago. Competitive they have been and people tend to have misperceive this team a lot. The Aggies opened the season with a very close 23-16 loss to UNLV as home underdogs. They also came very close to beating a San Jose State team on homecoming but coming up short and losing 23-20 as home favorites. Then came the big game at home against Nevada a few weeks ago where the Aggies looked like they had that first win in the bag but somehow still lost 31-28 against the Wolfpack. I was actually impressed with their loss last week at Fresno State as the Aggies were once again able to compete hard in the game and keep things to only 10 points most of the game, losing 38-27 as 20+ points underdogs. So Utah State has lost three games by 7 points or less and they deserve a win. That win won't come until the New Mexico State or the Idaho games coming up but I think they can definitely compete in this game and keep things closer than people think. The Aggies come into this game averaging 20.9 points per game on the year which is a big improvement from the 10.8 points per game they averaged last season. They average 274.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.4 yards per play and they seem to be improving by the week. Boise State has allowed 20.8 points per game this season and they have done that by allowing 306.7 total yards of offense per game and 4.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Utah State has averaged only 121.9 rushing yards per game this season on 3.1 yards per carry but QB Leon Jackson III has passed the 1000 rushing yard mark for his career and I see him making big plays against a Broncos defense that has allowed 120.2 rushing yards per game this season on 3.5 yards per carry. In the air, Jackson III has completed 65.7% of his passes this season for 1174 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He is going up against a tough Broncos secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 51.3% of their passes this season for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt which won't make it easy. The offensive line has had problems protecting Jackson III all season and this afternoon should be no different. However, Jackson is a playmaker who was recruited by several PAC 10 schools because of an outstanding high school career. This is his last game at home and I think he is going to lead this team to something good. The Aggies have lost 9 fumbles on the season but Boise State has recovered only 5 fumbles in nine games this season and they don't force enough turnovers to win this game as big as the experts think. Jackson III is not going out without a bang in this game having won only 7 games in his four year career at this school. Seeing how five of those wins have come at home, could there be magic in the Logan, Utah air this afternoon? Would love to see it that's for sure.
Wanna talk inspiration for this game? The Utah State Aggies are winless on the season...yes, but they have played hard and are destined for something good to happen. This is the home finale for the Aggies this season and it also marks the end of an era for 12...yup 12...seniors in the starting lineup who are going to play one last time in Logan before saying goodbye to their football careers (well most of them anyways). When you have 12 guys playing one last time at home for a team that has had no luck but that has competed hard all season, I think they are going to be motivated big time and keep this game very close to a shocker. Could they possibly pull off the upset? I don't know but that would be nice. This team also has 19 combined returning starters on both sides of the ball so experience is not a problem. Boise State has been one of the worst 10+ points road favorites in college football over the span of the last three of four seasons and there is no reason to think they are going to turn things around in this game. It seems like this team takes things lightly against weaker conference opponents and they have paid the ATS price for it in the past. The Aggies are going to play inspired and keep this game a lot close than people think.
Trend of the Game: Boise State is 2-8 ATS since 2004 as a road favorite of 10 or more points.
Boise State 47, Utah State 35
Auburn Tigers +2 (100 Units) ***SEC PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Auburn Tigers came into this season as complete write-offs for the SEC West Division Title. I didn't see one single expert predict that they would win this Division or come close to winning the division. Although the probably won't win the Divisionw with only two games remaining, the Tigers have come a pretty damn long way since opening the season 1-2 straight up with losses against South Florida and Mississippi State (both at home). The Tigers have since turned things around and have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS in those games. They have been one of the hottest spread teams over the last month or so and I am not missing out on this baby. After snapping out of their early season funk and beating the crap out of New Mexico State at home, Auburn went to Florida and somehow beat the Gators in their own swamp 20-17. They followed that up with a blowout win over Vanderbilt while favored by a touchdown. Next game an even more impressive road win over the Arkansas Razorbacks where the Tigers were three point underdogs but managed to win in hostile territory. Oh did I mention that Auburn had a win over LSU a few weeks ago but blew things late and lost the game? They recovered from that and beat both Mississippi and I-AA Tennessee Tech in the last two weeks. So here we are. The Tigers come into this game averaging 25.5 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 343.6 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Georgia has been stingy on defense once again this season and they have allowed only 22.4 points per game (highest total in many years for them) and they have also allowed 340.9 total yards of offense per game and only 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Auburn has not been as good as when Kenny Irons was here but they still average 160.2 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry in those games and that should be enough to move the chains against a Georgia defense that has allowed 131.8 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry (once again one of their highest yards per carry in years). In the air, QB Brandon Cox has been pretty efficient this season completing 60.9% of his passes for 1619 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. He is going up against a Georgia defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete a whopping and surprisingly high 63.1% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The Bulldogs have problems defending the deep pass and the deep pass is what Auburn likes to throw. What I don't like about this Bullgos defense is that they have only 4 interceptions on the season and that's horrendous for any SEC defense to not be able to force more turnovers. On top of that they have forced 18 fumbles this season but have come up with only 8 of those fumbles and that just won't cut it when playing such a big SEC game. Auburn is here and they are here for business. They have been impressive all season on the road and this should be no different. I am taking the Tigers and calling for them to pull off the upset in this game.
The 2007 edition of the Georgia Bulldogs will always be remembered for what they did in their 42-30 win over Florida in the SWAMP a few weeks ago. After scoring their first touchdown of the season and taking the 6-0 lead, the entire Bulldogs team stormed the field and celebrated in the endzone drawing about 20 flags but working magic on the confidence and morale of the Gators team. It had such an impact that the Bulldogs controlled the rest of the game and I expect things could get ugly the next time these two teams meet. The Bulldogs have three games left on their schedule and they currently hold a one game lead in the SEC EAST Division which makes things intense each and every time they hit the field. They somehow managed get over the Florida hangover last week and beat Troy 44-34 but you have to be concerned with them allowing that many points at home on homecoming weekend. Has this team lost focus because they are in first place in the East or what? Don't forget that this is the same Georgia team that lost 16-12 to South Carolina in their first SEC home game of the season and the same Georgia team that has not played against another SEC opponent at home since a win and cover against Ole Miss on September 29. If I can recall, Georgia also lost at home last season against Tennessee and Vanderbilt while beating Mississippi State by only three points as a 17 point favorite and beating Georgia Tech by only three points as well. That would make the Bulldogs 2-7 ATS in their last nine SEC home games. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging a nice 31.4 points per game this season and they have also averaged 379.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Auburn's defense is probably one of the best in the SEC right now as they have allowed only 14.5 points per game this season and have allowed only 293.8 total yards of offense per game and only 4.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Knowshown Moreno has been outstanding and has led this team to 173.7 rushing yards per game this season on 4.6 yards per carry in those games. Well Auburn is not about to let Moreno or the returning Thomas Brown to do much in this game as they have allowed only 114.0 rushing yards per game this season and only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Matthew Stafford is a bit banged up coming into this game but has completed 56.1% of his passes this season for 1798 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Auburn's secondary knows how to keep things in check and they have allowed their opposing QB's to complete only 57.2% of their passes this season for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt which is going to be a problem for Georgia as they will struggle to move the ball like they did in this meeting last year. Satfford has been good this season and has not thrown too many interceptions but he has to be careful against an Auburn defense that is very good at confusing opponents and that now has 11 interceptions on the season. Georgia has been very good at holding onto the ball and now turning it over via the fumble but I have to say that I am concerned for this offense. Auburn's defense is pissed off after allowing their highest points and yards total of the year against Georgia and they have had this game circled on their calendars for quite some time now. Auburn has been one of the most consistent defenses in the Nation over the las four seasons and I expect that to continue in this game. The Bulldogs will lose this game and things are going to get interesting in the race for the SEC Title Game in a few weeks.
I don't care what you tell me about Georgia and what they have done, the bottom line is that every single returning player on this Auburn teams remembers the 37-15 home upset loss to the Bulldogs in 2006 where they allowed 446 total yards (the most of any game all season). Believe it or not, AUBURN HAS ALLOWED 30 OR MORE POINTS IN ONLY 3 OF THEIR LAST 68 GAMES and that game against Georgia was one of them. This is a game the Tigers have been looking forward to since this time last year and just to make things better, the visitor is 11-3-1 all-time in this series. Auburn has been one of the best road underdog teams around over the years while Georgia has been a horrendous 2-7 ATS in their last nine SEC conference home games which puts them in a very bad spot here. They looked like trash against Troy last week and I don't see how they could get much better this week. You don't have to look much further than what Georgia has done at home the last two seasons when favored against SEC opponents to know that this is a very bad spot for them. The pressure is on Mark Richt and his guys to hold the lead in the SEC East Division and something tells me that they are going to buckle and lose it to the Gators. This is definitely my PLAY OF THE YEAR in the SEC.
Trend of the Game: Auburn is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Auburn 31, Georgia 14
Connecticut Huskies +6.5 (10 Units)
The Connecticut Huskies are yet another road team I am betting on this week and I am betting on them because I don't feel they are getting the respect that they deserve from oddsmakers. We are talking about the current leader in the BIG EAST CONFERENCE which means that the Huskies are only three wins away from reaching their second Bowl Game in school history (well that is already done) but I mean reaching a BCS Bowl for the first time ever. They have the Bearcats this week, Syracuse next week and then the big showdown for the BCS with West Virginia. What a game that is going to be and I think both teams are going to go in there with identical records. As long as the Huskies don't look to far ahead, they should be just fine in this game. I was on Rutgers last week for my Big East Play of the Year and boy was I wrong about these Huskies. If you are still doubting what they can, the Huskies beat Duke 45-14 in their first road game of the season, they beat Pittsburgh 34-14 in their second road game of the season, they lost to Virginia 17-16 (only reason they are not undefeated) in their third road game of the season and here we are in Cincinnati. So the Huskies are 3-0 ATS on the road this season and coach Randy Edsall is finally being rewarded for all his hard work over the course of the last nine seasons. UConn has never beat Cincinnati but things are about to change. The Huskies come into this game averaging 31.1 points per game this season and they have done that on 367.3 total yards of offense in those games and 5.3 yards per play. Cincinnati's defense has allowed 17.9 points per game this season and they have done that by also allowing 377.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Huskies have moved the ball effectively and average 174.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. It won't be easy to move the ball however as Cincinnati has allowed only 107.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry. In the air, QB Tyler Lorenzen has been the star of this team as he has completed 58.4% of his passes this season for 1723 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Cincinnati's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 60.7% of their passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt which is bad news for Bearcat backers because Lorenzen has a very good arm and he loves hooking up with Terence Jeffers and DJ Hernandez on the deep ball. Cincy can't stop the deep passes and that is going to be a big problem in this game. The offensive line protection is a concern for the Huskies as they allow more than 2.0 sacks per game but Lorenzen is mobile and he is used to it so he won't be surprised when he has Bearcat guys in his face all afternoon. Cincinnati's defense lives and dies by the art of interceptions as they have a whopping 21 interceptions on the season. Well that won't matter much here because Lorenzen rarely throws picks and he has shown great composure in his first season as the starting QB. The Bearcats have also forced 19 fumbles this season but that also won't be a concern for the Huskies who have lost only 6 fumbles in nine games this season. Connecticut is the one team that can do some damage on this Cincinnati defense and I think they are going to surprise them with their ability to pass and throw effectively.
The experts all called for the Cincinnati Bearcats to win no more than six games this season after going 8-5 last season. I don't know if it's because they didn't trust new head coach Brian Kelly or because they didn't like the 16 returning starters but something has to give. Well Cincinnati is currently 7-2 on the season and are only one win away from once again matching that 8 win total from one season ago. So they have already exceeded expectations and all that remains to do is get that win #8 and try to get another before the season ends so they don't have to play in my hometown of Toronto like they did in last years INTERNATIONAL BOWL. But here is my problem with this Cincinnati team. Sure they have won some big games on the road like their 38-33 win over South Florida last week or their 28-23 road win over Rutgers more than a month ago but what about their home schedule? I mean they crushed SE Missouri State in their home opener, crushed Oregon State in their second home game of the season, crushed Marshall in their third home game of the season but lost to their only real home opponent Louisville in their last home game. So seeing how UConn beat the Cardinals a few weeks ago, how is Cincinnati going to win this game having lost their only big home game of the season? The Bearcats come into this game averaging 37.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 429.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. Connecticut's defense has shocked everyone this season and allowed only 13.7 points per game and have allowed only 317.4 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Cincinnati has managed to establish a strong running game as they average 167.7 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry in those games. They are going up against a Huskies defense that has been solid and that has allowed only 122.9 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.6 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Benjamin Mauk has been pretty good as he has completed 60.4% of his passes this season for 1757 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 18 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions on the season. Connecticut's secondary has been bent but not broken as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.0% of their passes this season for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt which should limit how far Mauk can throw and how many times he can risk going deep in this game. The Huskies have a very good pass rush that can pressure Mauk into making mistakes. I know he doesn't make many mistakes but Cincinnati QB's have thrown 9 interceptions this season and the UConn defense has 19 interceptions on the season so Mauk needs to be careful here. Cincinnati's biggest problem in games this season is that they shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers. The Bearcats have managed to fumle the ball 21 times in nine games this season and have lost 10 of those fumbles which could really change the way this game plays out. Cincinnati has the offense to win this game but I don't know that they can solve the Huskies just yet. If Louisville, Pitt, South Florida and Rutgers couldn't do it...what makes you think the Bearcats can get it done? I am calling for a very close games here.
KEEP DISRESPECTING THE HUSKIES! I did it last week and I learned my damn lesson for once. This team is the real deal and they have shown it on more than one occasion this season. Cincinnati won their meeting last year by a final score of 26-23 but let me explain to you how this went down. Connecticut had a 23-16 lead with about 2:00 to go in that game and somehow they messed it up and allowed 10 points in the final minutes of the game to lose and pretty much miss out on any Bowl Game chances they had. That is why I think the Huskies can play like they did last year and once again run the show against the Cincinnati team. UConn has lost both all-time games in Cincinnati but that was when they were 2-9 (2001 season) and 5-6 (2005 season). These boys are 8-1 on the year baby and there is no chance in hell that Cincinnati should be considered this many points better than them. The home crowd advantage at Nippert Stadium is a lot better in night time games and I don't think the fans will be as lous as they could be in this game. Cincinnati has been a very good home team over the years but once again this game is being played in the afternoon and I love my chances here.
Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
Connecticut 23, Cincinnati 21
San Jose State Spartans -3.5 (25 Units)
The Nex Mexico State Aggies are not a good football team. Prior to the season starting a bunch of WAC Conference experts called for the Aggies to have a winning season and reach their first BOWL GAME since the 1960 season where they reached the Sun Bowl but that's not going to happen this year. The Aggies come into this game with 4-6 record on the year and unless they can find a way to win against both San Jose State and Utah State and then Fresno State, then they have a chance. I would have no problems betting on this team had this been a home game where they are 4-1 on the season but let's face it, the Aggies are 0-5 straight up away from home this season and they are 1-4 ATS in those games. In their road opener the Aggies went to New Mexico and lost by 10 points. That was followed by a 35 points loss at Auburn and then followed by a 58 point loss at Boise State. Then came a trip to Louisiana Tech where the Aggies came close to winning but blew things late in the game and that was once again followed by a 37 point ass raping at the hands of Hawaii just two weeks ago. So here we are. I know the road team has dominated this series in the past but this is a very bad spot for the Aggies and I don't see them winning this game so why bet on them? The Aggies come into this game averaging 25.5 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 423.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games. San Jose State's defense has been pretty bad this season as they have allowed 31.6 points per game this season and allowed a whopping 406.6 total yards of offense in those games on 5.5 yards per play which is not that bad at all actually. On the ground, Nex Mexico State has had problems moving the ball all season as they average only 92.6 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry in those games. San Jose State's biggest problem is stopping the run as they have allowed 175.4 rushing yards per game this season on 4.7 yards per carry but the Aggies don't have any weapons to expose that. In the air, QB Chase Holbrook is a good one and he has completed 72.4% of his passes this season for a whopping 2858 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 22 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. However he is without last year's NCAA leader in receiving yards WR Chris Williams who is out with an injury. San Jose State's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 63.9% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt so they haven't been burned too many times for deep balls (Holbrook lives and dies by the long ball). The problem with Holbrook is that he makes a lot of mistakes and throws a lot of interceptions, somehting that comes with averaging 46.3 pass attempts per game. Well I think he is in trouble in this game. Not only does he not have his top receiver in the game but San Jose State has 16 interceptions on the season and they have some very sharp (risk takers) defensive backs that feast on INT prone quarterbacks. I don't know what it is that defensive coordinator Dave Fipp does but Spartans opponents average 7.9 penalties per game this season for 65.5 penalty yards lost per game so there is some kind of edge there. The Aggies can score some points no doubt against this defense but I like the playmakers on San Jose State and I like that the top receiver in the Nation last year (and close to it this year) is out for this game.
The San Jose State Spartans came into the season with the same kind of expert expectations as New Mexico State. Both teams were supposed to play really well this year and both teams were supposed to reach a Bowl Game when all was said and done. Well the Aggies are not going to a Bowl Game (pending a miracle) but the Spartans still have a decent chance. I know they are 3-6 on the season and pretty much down and out but all they have to do is win their last three games of the season and a Bowl Game might come calling on the 6-6 Spartans. What sucks for the Spartans is that they have not had enough home games to really get their feet set on the season and it has cost them. They did not play a home game until September 29 against I-AA UC Davis and that was an easy 34-14 win for the home team. Then came another home game against Idaho where they won 28-20 as a 7.5 point favorite on homecoming weekend. I was even more impressed by this team when they hosted Hawaii the following week as a +16 point home underdog and had the Warriors beat until they blew the game late and ended up losing in overtime 42-35. That was a big morale kill on this team and it showed in their 30-0 loss to Fresno State the following week. However, they were still a bit shell shocked last week against Boise State losing 42-7 but now is time to get back to busines at home where they have been at their best. The Spartans come into this game averaging only 16.0 points per game on the season and they have done that by also averaging 307.1 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play in those games. Not impressed and nothing compared to New Mexico State's offense but there is hope. Nex Mexico State has allowed 35.5 points per game this season and have one of the worst defenses in this Country as they also allow 425.9 total yards per game this season and allow 6.6 yards per play in those games which is a full 1.1 yards more than what San Jose State allows. On the ground, the Spartans are not a good rushing team as they average only 69.3 rushing yards per game this season on 2.3 yards per carry but RB Jacob French has run well in two of the last three games and he could have a big game against a New Mexico State defense that has allowed 156.5 rushing yards per game this season on 5.0 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB and team leader Adam Trafalis is probably out. In comes either QB Sean Flynn or Jordan La Secla. Both have played in games this season. La Secla was 4 for 8 in relief against Boise State last game and will probably start. He has attempted only 18 passes in his career here but does have one touchdown pass. I think La Secla is going to have a coming out party in this game as the QB of the future here. He is up against a defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.7% of their passes this season but for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. LaSecla looked good a few times this season and I trust he can get the job done. Looks like Trafalis is passing the torch for now. San Jose State has been very good with the ball this season as they have lost only 1 fumble this season (#1 in the NCAA in lost fumbles) and that can only lead to good things when playing at home against a New Mexico State defense that has recovered only 6 fumbles in 10 games this season and intercepted only 7 passes all season long. I think despite having problems on offense in past games, the Spartans will have a much easier time in this game as they take a big step down in class to face an opponent that is nowhere near as good as their last three opponents (Boise State, Fresno State and Hawaii). It's back to Spartans football tonight after those three losses and the Spartans should have their way in front of the Spartan Stadium faithful.
You wanna talk about injuries and question why I would bet on San Jose State without their starting QB in the lineup? Well how about Nex Mexico State being without WR Chris Williams again who was #1 in the NCAA in receiving yards in 2006 and who has 56 receptions this season for 772 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns? I think that's a pretty big deal. San Jose State has almost always dominated this series as they lead the head to head 12-2 all-time and have won every game by an average margin of 23 points per game (final score 37-14 in most of the game). I don't see why that would be any different today as they take on a very bad road team that doesn't seem to do anything away from home. The Spartans beat New Mexico State last season for their first road in since 2003 and I think they come into
posted by phantom
Nov. 9 2007 9:08pm -
0 likes
CONSENSUS WITH SERVICES ON THEM TO THIS POINT - HOPE THIS HELPS
* NOTE - YOU MAY NOT HAVE ALL THESE SERVICES POSTED YET:
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Indiana (4) - dr. bog, strike points, spylock, steam plays
Northwestern (2) - smart, scott
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Purdue (6) - ferrigno, spylock, ptwise, cko, cowherd, betters world
Michigan State (1) - executive
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South Florida (3) - power sweep, sports reporter, ptwise
Syracuse (1) - hurley
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Iowa (4) - nelly, pointwise, goldsheet, HQ
Minn. (0)
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Michigan (4) - doc, strike pts, rightside, platinum
Wisconsin (1) - stryker
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N.C. State (4) - northcoast, rightside, CKO, powersweep
N. Carolina (0) -
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Mississippi St. (9) - dr. bob, doc, shaker, crows, black, AAA, nelly,
sports crew, cowherd
Alabama (0) -
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Tennessee (7) - dr. bob, stryker, strike points, burns, rightside,
johnson, CKO
Arkansas (2) - steward, hurley
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Missouri (9) - blades, nelly, stryker, northcoast, rightside, pointwise, cko
powersweep, golden contender
Texas A&M - (0) -
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Air Force - (8) - dr. bob, spylock, sports crew, steam plays, cowherd,
betters world, pointwide, rose
Notre Dame - (0) -
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Rice (3) - CKO, goldsheet, marshall
SMU (0) -
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Utah (4) - bonds, cko, powersweep, cokin GOY
Wyoming (0) -
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Auburn (8) - ferrigno, pure lock, strike pt., rightside, ptwise, spts reporter,
cowherd, betters world
Georgia (2) - eck man, powersweep
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Florida Atl (3) - chuck luck, ferrigno, power sweep
Ark State (0) -
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Memphis (4) - wunderdog, ncoast, sports crew, powersweep
So. Miss (2) - dr. bob, steam plays
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Virginia (4) - strike points, betters world, rose, lt profits
Miami (2) - ferrigno, gameday
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Central Florida (6) - doc, roberts, simonson, ptwise, power sweep, freese
UAB (1) - lawrence
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Oklahoma St (7) - doc, wunderdog, stryker, ncoast, burns, lawrence, powersweep
Kansas (2) - big money, ptwise
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USC (4) - teddy covers, power sweep, HQ, computer
Cal (1) - camponella
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:31am -
0 likes
Brandon Lang
SATURDAY
50 DIME
USC TROJANS
30 DIME
Air Force
15 DIME
Purdue
Cincinnati
Houston
10 DIME
S.Carolina
Arizona St
Free Pick - Hawaii
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:31am -
0 likes
Dave Cokin GOY
Utah
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:32am -
0 likes
heres a nice system for sat - play on home favs -10 to-30 off a win of 40 or more points,allowed 10 or less-vs a conf opponent off a loss- this system plays on missouri-the system record is a stout 32-12 ats- not 40-4,but nice none the less-for further support consider texas-am when they do lose on the road they are a disastrous 1-34 ats- and i really cant see how they can stop chase daniel and the tigers-or how they can put enough points up to keep it real close-that said the line on this game should be around 17-not 19or20- as it has been adjusted with last weeks results in mind, unless the aggies catch mizzou sleepwalking for kansas-this could be a blow- bol gc-
MISSOURI
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:32am -
0 likes
Tim Trushel's
20* NCAA Underdog GOY
SOUTH CAROLINA +7
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:32am -
0 likes
NELLYS 4* IOWA
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:33am -
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Steve Simonson Picks 11/10/7 (3-0) Last Saturday
(3-1) on the year.
GOY 10* UCF -20 1/2
Penn St. -24 9*
Rice +6 7*
Teaser of the day 9*
Miss. St. +10 1/2
WF +14 1/2
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:33am -
0 likes
Doc Enterprises:
6*ariz St,
5*ok St, Mich,
4*ms St, Fla St, C Fla, Mich Under
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:34am -
0 likes
Nationwide (goldst):
Super 7: Iowa,
Top: Bc, Reg: Wf, Rice, Oh St, Stan Under
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:34am -
0 likes
Greg Roberts Radio Show
NOVEMBER 10-11 WEEKEND PICKS
Missouri -19 Over Texas A&M (Favorite Game)
North Carolina State -3.5 Over North Carolina (Favorite Game)
Mississippi State +4.5 Over Alabama
Cincinnati -6.% Over Connecticut
South Carolina +7 Over Florida
Auburn +2 Over Georgia
Kentucky -3.5 Over Vanderbilt
Ohio State -15 Over Illinois
Oregon State -5 Over Washington
Southern Mississippi -16.5 Over Memphis
Arkansas +1 Over Tennessee
Dolphins +3 Over Bills
Giants +1.5 Over Cowboys
Chargers +3.5 Over Colts
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:35am -
0 likes
Pointwise Late Phone
4 * C. Florida / Iowa
3 * Maryland / Kanas / Auburn / S Carolina / Missouri / FSU / Air Force
2 * La Tech / Utah St / South Florida
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 4:36am -
0 likes
SATURDAY SERVICE REPORT
ATS Lock Club....................8*Oklahoma State
...........................................7*Cinci nnati
...........................................6*Texas & Purdue
...........................................5*Arkan sas
...........................................4*Nebra ska, Georgia & Oregon State
Big Al..................................SEC Game Of The Month: Tennessee
Big 10 Sports......................Underdog Game Of The Year: Wisconsin
...........................................Also: Indiana
Brandon Lang....................50*USC
..........................................30*Air Force
..........................................15*Purdu e, Cincinnati & Houston
..........................................10*South Carolina & Arizona State
..........................................Opinion: Hawaii
Dave Cokin........................Under The Hat: Iowa
..........................................Window Play: Tulsa
..........................................System Play: North Texas
..........................................Big Shot: Oregon State
..........................................3*Ohio State & Purdue
Director Sports...................Special: Mid Tenn State
..........................................Top: Houston & Navy
...........................................Regular : Ohio St, Purdue, Fresno St, Penn St
Doctor Bob.........................3*Air Force
...........................................2*Virgi nia Tech, So.Mississippi & Florida
Frank Magliosa..................Nebraska, Maryland & Mississippi State
Gold Sheet........................Super Power 7: Iowa
..........................................Top: Boston College
..........................................Regular: Rice, Wake Forest, Ohio St & Stan/WSt(U)
Guarantee Picks................New Mexico
Jim Feist............................Inner Circle: Iowa
..........................................Platinum : Wake Forest & North Texas
..........................................Personal Best: Auburn & Air Force
..........................................4*Missou ri
..........................................3*UCLA
Joe Gavazzi(PPP)..............5*Arkansas & Colo/IowaSt(U)
..........................................4*Arizon a St & USC
..........................................3*Boston Coll, Florida, Ala/MissSt(U)
Kelso Sturgeon..................15*Kentucky
Las Vegas Sports................10*Washington St, Utah & Cincinnati
Lenny Stevens...................Underdog Game Of The Year: Mississippi State
...........................................20*Virg inia Tech
...........................................10*Okla homa St, Auburn & Miami(Fla)
Northcoast...........................Should Have on Final Report
Northcoast(Small Coll)........3*Florida Atlantic
Northcoast(Totals)...............4*Ark/Tenn(O)
...........................................3*Ala/MissSt(U) & Bay/Okla(U)
Pointwise...........................4*C.Florida & Iowa
Rocketman.........................4*Wisconsin, Purdue & Illinois
...........................................3*Color ado
...........................................2*South Carolina
Sebastian...........................150*Utah
...........................................100*Cin cinnati
...........................................50*Wisc onsin
Texas Sports Brokers.........10*North Texas 5*Wisconsin
VIP Lock Club.....................500%Washington State
...........................................250%Mis souri
Wayne Root........................Billionaire: Wisconsin
...........................................Million aire: Cincinnati
...........................................Perfect Play: UCLA
...........................................Inside Circle: South Carolina
...........................................No LImit (ACC Game Of The Year): Maryland
...........................................Money Maker: Vanderbilt
...........................................Chairma n Of The Board: Notre Dame
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 11:41am -
0 likes
spritzer--
acc chalk wipeout goy.............v.tech
smashmouth blowout goy............missouri
early value gow...................5 star maryland
5 star hammer......................okla st
4 star hammer......................mid tenn st
tko..........miss st, tex, usc
ko..............hawaii, utah, c.fla
main event..................fla atl
tko.. cbb..............byu, nc wilm
5 star total....................celtics under 86
fiest--
shocker goy...................s.car
mismatch gom.......................fla atl
inner circle.....................iowa
platinum...................wake, n.tex
personal best...................aub, a force
totals............mich under 46.5, virg under
personal elite..................utah
island source......................c.fla
platinum......................jazz
persoanl best..................nuggets, pacific
total.....................tor over 91
cokin--
fat man plays..............cincy-6.5,aub+2,utah-13.5
college goy..............utah
under the hat...............iowa
window...................tulsa
totals........nw over 61, wake under 51
big shot..................oreg st
champ club...................g.tech
under the hat.................toledo..cbb
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 11:45am -
0 likes
ASA's SEC Game of the Year - Saturday
Mississippi State (+4) over Alabama
Saturday ? 12:30 pm EST
Alabama had every opportunity to win the inaugural Saban Bowl over LSU last week but blew a 27-17 third-quarter lead and a 34-27 late fourth-quarter lead. The loss was definitely of the heartbreaking variety and the Tide won't easily recover. Now they must go on the road as the favorite to take on a Mississippi State team that will be in the mood to pull off a big home upset.
Pulling an upset is something that the Bulldogs would not be new to either. Mississippi State went into Kentucky's stadium two weeks and pulled out a convincing 31-14 upset of the Wildcats. The Bulldogs outgained Kentucky on offense and picked off Heisman candidate Andre Woodson three times. They had last week off to rest and will ready to go against a physically, emotionally and mentally fatigued Alabama squad.
The Crimson Tide's 6-3 record suggests that Nick Saban has done his job and has Alabama on track to return to its winning ways of years past. But a closer look shows that the Tide are nothing more than a mediocre team that has benefited from some close wins. Alabama is a middle-of-the-pack 57th in total offense and 52nd in total defense and doesn't do anything particularly well on either side of the ball. This mediocrity has led to a poor 2-6 ATS record.
Mississippi State certainly doesn't own the flashiest offense but its defense has done the job on many occasions this season. The Bulldogs are a solid 36th in the nation in total defense, which isn't easy to do in the tough SEC. They are especially strong against the pass, where they are 21st in the country with just 191.9 passing yards allowed per game. A majority of Alabama's offenses courtesy of the pass but Mississippi State will be up for the challenge.
The Bulldogs are just 6-21 SU over Alabama since 1980 but one of those wins came last year in a 24-16 win on the road as 14.5-point favorites. That win improved Mississippi State's ATS mark versus the Tide to 17-9 since 1980, including a 9-3 ATS mark in the last 12 meetings. Within those games, the Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS when coming off a win. Expect that to continue in this game as Mississippi State takes advantage of Alabama's letdown last week. Take the Bulldogs at home plus the points
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 12:09pm -
0 likes
SATURDAY SERVICE REPORT
ATS Lock Club....................8*Oklahoma State
...........................................7*Cinci nnati
...........................................6*Texas & Purdue
...........................................5*Arkan sas
...........................................4*Nebra ska, Georgia & Oregon State
Big Al..................................SEC Game Of The Month: Tennessee
Big 10 Sports......................Underdog Game Of The Year: Wisconsin
...........................................Also: Indiana
Brandon Lang....................50*USC
..........................................30*Air Force
..........................................15*Purdu e, Cincinnati & Houston
..........................................10*South Carolina & Arizona State
..........................................Opinion: Hawaii
Dave Cokin........................Under The Hat: Iowa
..........................................Window Play: Tulsa
..........................................System Play: North Texas
..........................................Big Shot: Oregon State
..........................................3*Ohio State & Purdue
Director Sports...................Special: Mid Tenn State
..........................................Top: Houston & Navy
...........................................Regular : Ohio St, Purdue, Fresno St, Penn St
Doctor Bob.........................3*Air Force
...........................................2*Virgi nia Tech, So.Mississippi & Florida
Frank Magliosa..................Nebraska, Maryland & Mississippi State
Gold Sheet........................Super Power 7: Iowa
..........................................Top: Boston College
..........................................Regular: Rice, Wake Forest, Ohio St & Stan/WSt(U)
Guarantee Picks................New Mexico
Jeff Cline...........................30*Crusher: New Mexico
Jim Feist............................Inner Circle: Iowa
..........................................Platinum : Wake Forest & North Texas
..........................................Personal Best: Auburn & Air Force
..........................................4*Missou ri
..........................................3*UCLA
Joe Gavazzi(PPP)..............5*Arkansas & Colo/IowaSt(U)
..........................................4*Arizon a St & USC
..........................................3*Boston Coll, Florida, Ala/MissSt(U)
Kelso Sturgeon..................25*NC State
..........................................15*Kentu cky
Las Vegas Sports................10*Washington St, Utah & Cincinnati
Lenny Stevens...................Underdog Game Of The Year: Mississippi State
...........................................20*Virg inia Tech
...........................................10*Okla homa St, Auburn & Miami(Fla)
Northcoast..........................Game Of The Year: South Florida
...........................................4*Notre Dame, So Carolina, NCState & No Dame
...........................................3*Iowa & C.Florida
Northcoast(Small Coll)........3*Florida Atlantic
Northcoast(Totals)...............4*Ark/Tenn(O)
...........................................3*Ala/MissSt(U) & Bay/Okla(U)
Pointwise...........................4*C.Florida & Iowa
PureLock............................Auburn
Rocketman.........................4*Wisconsin, Purdue & Illinois
...........................................3*Color ado
...........................................2*South Carolina
Sebastian...........................150*Utah
...........................................100*Cin cinnati
...........................................50*Wisc onsin
Texas Sports Brokers.........10*North Texas 5*Wisconsin
Underdog Sportsline..........Top: Wisoconsin
...........................................Regular : Marshall & South Carolina
VIP Lock Club.....................500%Washington State
...........................................250%Mis souri
Wayne Root........................Billionaire: Wisconsin
...........................................Million aire: Cincinnati
...........................................Perfect Play: UCLA
...........................................Inside Circle: South Carolina
...........................................No LImit (ACC Game Of The Year): Maryland
...........................................Money Maker: Vanderbilt
...........................................Chairma n Of The Board: Notre Dame
Windy City Sports..............Blowout Game Of The Year: Miami(Fla)
...........................................8*Maryl and
...........................................6*Flori da
Winners Path......................Big 10 Blowout Game Of The Year: Northwestern
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 1:01pm -
0 likes
ATS 2 (5-2) (5-14) (32-18) 8 OKLAHOMA STATE - 7 CINCINNATI - 6 texas, purdue, - 5 arkansas
BEN BURNS 1 (26-18) (4-11) (9-8) PAC TEN GAME OF WEEK UCLA ----- NON CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH NORTH TEXAS ---- SHOCKER OF THE MONTH DUKE ---- SEC GAME OF WEEK TENNESSEE ---- NOVEMBER DOG OF MONTH OKLAHOMA STATE ---- REVENGE GAME OF YEAR VANDERBILT
BIG AL 1 (5* 12-10) (3* 20-21) ACC GAME OF YEAR VIRGINIA TECH --- SEC TENNESSEE -- 3* MARYLAND, OKLA STATE, CALIFORNIA, NORTH CAROLINA, MISS STATE, GEORGIA
BILL BAILEY 5 (100* 3-5) (50* 2-6) (25* 8-6) 100 SOUTH FLORIDA
BANKER 4 (500* 4-2) (400* 5-7) (16-7) 400 NORTHWESTERN
BLAZER 8 (4* 6-4) (3* 15-13) 4 LOUISIANA TECH, ILLINOIS - 3 memphis, so carolina, new mexico state
BRANDON LANG 2 (30* 3-1) (9-9) (37-41) SOUTHERN CAL - AIR FORCE - purdue, cincy, houston, arizona state, south carolina
CASH 2 (5-5) (10-6) (33-18) NC STATE, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, boise state, colorado, so carolina, unlv, georgia, alabama
COACHES CORNER 3 (1-2) (3-6) (21-17) SOUTHERN CAL, ARIZONA STATE -- missouri, oklahoma, texas, air force, hawaii, utah
COWTOWN 5 (3* 2-1) (29-17) texas, tennessee
COMPUTER KIDS 2 (7-3) (11-12) (7-6) ALABAMA OVER, CENTRAL FLORIDA UNDER, NORTHWESTERN OVER
DAVE COKIN 2 (44-27) (21-23) GAME OF YEAR UTAH -- IOWA, TULSA, NORTH TEXAS, OREGON STATE, ohio state, purdue
DOLPHIN 2 (5* 3-5) (20-25) 3 virginia tech, uconn, virginia
DIRECTOR SPORTS 4 (2-0) (8-5) (45-37) MIDDLE TENNESSEE -- NAVY, HOUSTON, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA -- ohio state, fresno state, arizona state, virginia tech, purdue, penn state
DOC ENTERPRISES 1 (3-3) (5* 4-7) (37-21) 6 ARIZONA STATE - 5 MICHIGAN, OKLAHOMA STATE - 4 miss state, florida state, central florida, michigan under
DOCTOR BOB 1 (4* 0-5) (3* 10-9) (2* 11-16) 3 AIR FORCE - 2 virginia tech, florida, southern miss
DR CHAD 2 (21-14) VIRGINIA, TEXAS TECH, USC, MINNESOTA -- air force, kansas state
EXECUTIVE 7 (2-2) (5-5) (3-3) 600 COLORADO - 400 VANDERBILT - 300 houston, georgia
EXPERT 1 (14-11) (1-1) SOUTH CAROLINA
FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (0-1) (12-11) SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FINAL SCORE 1 (12-10) (6-4) PURDUE
GAME DAY 1 (4* 6-3) (25-22) 4 CINCINNATI - 3 miami florida, washington state - 2 colorado
GARDEN STATE SPORTS 5 (5* 2-5) (2* 21-15) 5* CLEMSON -- 2 texas, oklahoma state
GOLD SHEET 1 (0-4) (7-2-1) (24-17) SUPER POWER 7 IOWA --- BOSTON COLLEGE --- wake forest, rice, ohio state, stanford under
GUARANTEED 3 (3-10) NEW MEXICO
INSIDERS EDGE 10 (40* 5-5) (18-13) 40 GEORGIA - 30 kentucky, ucla
INSIDE STEAM 10 (5-5) (0-1) (2* 19-13) UNDERDOG GOY MARSHALL - 2 cal, virginia tech
INSIDE INFO 1 (3* 4-5) (14-23) 3 ARIZONA STATE - 2 florida
JEFF CLINE 3 (1-3) (4-3) (6-8) NEW MEXICO - IOWA, PURDUE - missouri
JIM FEIST 2 (5-6) (27-25) (18-15) GAME OF MONTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC --- IOWA, WAKE FOREST, NORTH TEXAS, AUBURN, AIR FORCE -- missouri, indiana over, ucla ---- SHOCKER GAME OF YEAR SOUTH CAROLINA
JOHNNY DETROIT (36-27)
KELSO STURGEON 1 (50* 5-3) (25* 3-3) (17-18) 15* KENTUCKY -- 25* NC STATE -10* PARLAY NEBRASKA, SOUTH CAROLINA, CALIFORNIA
KEVIN ONEILL 1 (14-19) michigan state, virginia, wake forest, arizona state, miss state, auburn, south carolina
LARRY NESS (5-5) (8-10)
LT PROFITS 1 (3* 3-1) (15-26) northwestern, wisconsin under, california
LV INSIDERS 5 (1-6) (400% 8-6) (10-13) 400 COLORADO
LV LOCKLINE 4 (50* 5-4) (25* 21-16) 25 miss state - 50 CAL - 25 so miss
LV SPORTS 3 (10* 23-24) wash state, utah, cincinnati
LENNY STEVENS 3 (2-5) (20* 5-9) (10* 20-13) UNDERDOG GOY MISS STATE --- VIRGINIA TECH --- miami florida, oklahoma state, auburn
MAGLIOSA 3 (21-22) MISS STATE, NEBRASKA, MARYLAND
MAXWELL 2 (2-0) (7-4) (24-9) IOWA, air force, hawaii, north texas, clemson
MIKE NERI 10 (5* 2-0) (4* 8-8) (24-16) 4 CENTRAL FLORIDA - 3 miami florida, virginia tech
MIKEY SPORTS 3 (1-1) (5-4) (23-18) UL LAFAYETTE - alabama, southern miss, hawaii
MILLIONAIRES 5 (3-1) (9-7) (1-3) COLORADO, SOUTH FLORIDA
NORTHCOAST 2 (5* 1-2) (4* 3-5) (4* 12-8) (3* 15-13) 5 SOUTH FLORIDA - 4 WASH STATE, NC STATE, SO CAROLINA, NOTRE DAME - 3 central florida, iowa
NORTHCOAST SMALL COLL 2 (MARQUEE GOY 0-1) (3* 6-5) 3 florida atlantic -- MARQUEE ohio state, northwestern
NORTHCOAST TOTALS 2 (4* 4-2) (16-14) 4 ARKANSAS OVER - 3 alabama under, oklahoma under
NY SPORTS 4 (10* 2-2) (9* 4-1) (22-16) 8 wisconsin - 10* OKLA STATE - 8 houston, -6 smu
POINTWISE 2 (4* 7-13) (46-40) 4 CENTRAL FLORIDA, IOWA -- 3 maryland, kansas, auburn, south carolina, missouri, florida state, air force - 2 louisiana tech, utah state, south florida
POINTSPREAD MAVEN 6 (20* 4-0) (10* 15-12) (5* 7-3) 20* GOY CINCINNATI
POWER PLAYS 1 (2-5) (24-15) (5-4) BIG TEN GOY PURDUE --- SEC GOY TENNESSEE --- ACC GAME OF YEAR VIRGINIA TECH
PLATINUM 1 (3-3) (19-6) (4-3) BOSTON COLLEGE, MIAMI FLORIDA
PREFERRED PICKS 5 (5* 1-1) (4* 6-3) (3* 15-10) 5* REVENGE GOY CALIFORNIA - 3 so carolina, okla state, miami florida
PRIMETIME 7 (19-12) (1-5) HOUSTON
PRIVATE INVESTORS 4 (11-12) (15-10) GEORGIA, ALABAMA, TENNESSEE
PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 2 (6* 0-3) (5* 10-8) (26-35) 5 ARKANSAS, IOWA STATE UNDER - 4 arizona state, southern cal, 3- boston college, florida, new mexico under, miss state under
PURE LOCK 1 (7-3) AUBURN
RAIDER 1 (1-1) (7-8) (7-7) UCLA, washington state under, hawaii, air force
RANDY RATDKE 7 (9-9) (8-9) MIAMI FLORIDA, OKLAHOMA STATE, SOUTH CAROLINA -- illinois
REED HARRIS 2 (20-11) (25-24) AUBURN, miami florida, utah state, kansas state, southern miss, kent, oregon state
R&R TOTALS 3 (7-4) memphis under
SEBASTIAN 2 (4-6) (50* 8-10) (44-21) UTAH, CINCINNATI, WISCONSIN, duke, north texas, auburn, virginia tech, oklahoma state, ucla, nebraska
SCORE 8 (500% 3-1) (7-3) (11-17) 400 SO FLORIDA, SOUTHERN CAL - 300 texas, kentucky
SCOTT SPREITZER 2 (8-16) (28-25) (8-8) VIRGINIA TECH - MISS STATE - TEXAS, USC, HAWAII, UTAH, CENTRAL FLORIDA
SILVER STAR 9 (10* 4-2) (6-2) (13-18) 10 CRUSHER GOY TEXAS - 8 tulane - 6 minnesota
SLAM DUNK 4 (1-1) (15-10) (11-5) SOUTH CAROLINA, VIRGINIA TECH, SOUTH FLORIDA, UCONN
ED SLICK 5 (2* 5-11) (40-35) virginia, penn state, iowa, east carolina, central florida, usc, hawaii
SOLID GOLD PICK 2 (4-5) (31-16) PURDUE, duke, washington state, kansas, arkansas
SPORTS GURU 4 (40* 4-2) (30* 14-6) (5-6) 40 MISSOURI - 30 so miss, washington
SPORTS ANALYST 2 (3-2) (14-10) (2-5) NORTHWESTERN, COLORADO, TENNESSEE, wash state, kansas
SPORTS AUTHORITY 5 (4-8) (14-15) (7-3) FALSE FAVORITE GAME OF MONTH NORTH CAROLINA -- PURDUE, KANSAS STATE
SPORTS BANK 7 (500* 5-6) (2-2) (2-10) 500 GOY COLORADO
SPORTS DOCTOR 7 (2-5) (75* 9-1) (11-11) 100 GEORGIA - 75 STANFORD - 50 new mexico
SPORTS INVESTORS 9 (10* 5-4) (9* 3-6) (18-10) 10 MISMATCH GOY NEW MEXICO - 8 smu - 6 stanford
SPORTS NETWORK 6 (2-5) (9-15) (31-22) TENNESSEE, CINCY, MIAMI FLORIDA
SPORT TRENDS 2 (1-1) (9* 9-7) (64-50) AUBURN, UTEP, wake forest, kansas
SPORTS UNLIMITED 10 (3-1) (7* 1-5) (15-13) 15* CONFERENCE GOY VIRGINIA TECH - 5 washington
STATISTICIAN 5 (1-1) (90% 15-12) (6-9) MICHIGAN STATE -- OREGON STATE, UCONN, COLORADO, TEXAS AM
SUPER LOCK 1 (15-7) KANSAS
SUPER SYSTEMS 1 (1-0) (11-14) UTAH STATE
SWAMI 7 (1-0) (30-19) MIAMI FLORIDA, south carolina, tennessee, duke, houston
TD CLUB 9 (10* 2-4) (2-1) (17-17) 10 TULANE - 8 northern illinois - 6 san diego state
THE COACH 9 (1-4) (9-9) (7-8) 3 FLORIDA - 2 MARSHALL, UCLA UNDER
THE INSIDER 6 (0-2) (14-14) (29-32) PASS
TIPPS 2 (2-2) (8-6) (28-30) MISSOURI, CENTRAL FLORIDA, ohio state, maryland, clemson, uconn, texas am, florida state, hawaii, arkansas state
TOMMY THUNDER (10* 3-2) (7-4) (18-18)
TONY WRIGHT 9 (20* 0-2) (10* 1-2) (10-23) miami florida, tulane, maryland
TOP DAWG 6 (0-2) (2-4) (28-15) vanderbilt, miss state, san diego state, temple
TRU-LINE 2 (2-2) (6-5) (5-0) SAN DIEGO STATE
UNDERDOG 9 (3-7) OKLAHOMA STATE
UNDERDOG SPORTSLINE 1 (1-4) (1-8) (12-4) WISCONSIN, marshall, south carolina
UNIVERSAL 6 (0-1) (6-5) (28-28) arizona staste, utah, utah state, rice, houston, georgia, illinois, virginia tech, northern illinois
USA SPORTS 6 (10-3) (37-31) utep, south carolina, usc, oregon state, texas, boston college
VEGAS CONNECTION 5 (3* 5-3) (2* 7-14) (2-1) 2 COLORADO
VEGAS PIPELINE 2 (1-2) (27-15) (3-2) PURDUE, DUKE, UTEP, NORTHWESTERN, IOWA STATE
VIP SPORTS 1 (1000* 4-3) (8-4) (5-6) WASHINGTON STATE, missouri
WAYNE ROOT 2 (NO LIMIT 6-5) (5-3) (21-7) (18-12) NO LIMIT MARYLAND - PERFECT PLAY UCLA -- BILLIONAIRE WISCONSIN - MONEY MAKER VANDERBILT -- INSIDER SOUTH CAROLINA -- MILLIONAIRE cincinnati -- CHAIRMAN notre dame
WILDCAT (10* 4-4) (7* 5-5) (9-8)
WINDY CITY 6 (10* 5-5) (7-6) (12-12) BLOWOUT GOY MIAMI FLORIDA -- MARYLAND, florida
WINNERS PATH 3 (3-3) (1-6) (12-7) BIG TEN BLOWOUT GOY NORTHWESTERN - CLEMSON - southern cal
WISE GUYS 7 (3* 3-3) (2* 18-17) (2-1) GOY ARKANSAS
WIZARD 2 (0-1) (10-10) (12-6) SOUTHERN CAL, UCLA, STANFORD, OREGON STATE
ADDITIONAL ***
JB SPORTS 4 (1-0) (2-1) (10-7) 3 wisconsin - 3 miami florida, unlv, north texas
ASA 2 (8-1) (4* 2-3) (7-3) PURDUE, miss state, arkansas --- 10* MISSOURI -- SEC GOY MISS STATE
NELLY 1 IOWA
GREG SHAKER 1 SEC DOG OF YEAR MISS STATE
TIM TRUSHEL 1 UNDERDOG GAME OF YEAR SOUTH CAROLINA
COMPUMAN 2 GAME OF YEAR ARIZONA STATE
JIM KRUEGER 2 kentucky, wyoming, san jose, southern cal, san diego state
NORM HITZGES 2 MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, IOWA, CENTRAL FLORIDA, UTAH, FLORIDA ATLANTIC
ROCKETMAN 3 WISCONSIN, PURDUE, ILLINOIS, colorado, south carolina
ALATEX 5 MISSISSIPPI STATE
CAROLINA 5 GOY CENTRAL FLORIDA
DAVE ******** 8 6* AIR FORCE
BOB BALFE 8 ucla, maryland, baylor, uab, miami florida, vanderbilt
DIAMOND STAR 9 NEW MEXICO STATE
TOM STRYKER 10 MISSOURI - NEW MEXICO
posted by phantom
Nov. 10 2007 6:31pm -
0 likes
Kelso
HIGH ROLLERS PLAY
ATLANTA +3.5
________________
Pork Chop
4* Tenn
3 1/2* Clev
3 1/2* Minny
4* Okl
4* Dallas
4-5* Ariz
3* S.diego
3* S.d Under
Real Animal
3* Denver 'OVER' 37
4* six-point teaser of Pittsburgh -4 and Pittsburgh 'OVER' 41.
4* Atlanta +3 1/2
3* Washington -2 1/2 on the buy
4* NY Giants +2 1/2
5* NY Giants 'OVER' 48
NORTHCOAST 3.5 star ARIZONA-2 // 3 star st louis over 46- // 3 star green bay-6 // do not waste buying phils personal plays, CHUNG was going to,office said 2 of them are the same,probably arizona and green bay,he never fades wise guy money moves and the sharps are on st louis under 46- L A R G E !!
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:06pm -
0 likes
Billy Coleman
5* Ariz (GOM)
4* Chic
4* Over St.Louis
3* Under Atl
3* Under Jac.
MARC LAWRENCE NFL PAID for PICKS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3* Miami Dolphins +3
3* St.louis Rams +11
3* New York Giants +1.5
Reply With Quote
Charlies
green bay under 40' (500* )
buffalo-2' (30*)
jacksonville+4' (20*)
ny giants+1' (20*)
cleveland+10 (10*)
st. louis+10 (10*) free play
Stan Sharp
NFC BLOWOUT BIG BET OF THE YEAR
Triple Dime
Detroit is riding high after last weeks lopsided win but the
facts of that win are more a result of Denver mistakes last week rather Detroit superior play. Arizona is ready to pull a Upset today as Detroit hasn't played well on the road. The Detroit defense gets exposed today as they get shredded by the Arizona receivers.
TAKE ARIZONA as STAN'S NFC BLOWOUT BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
Maddux Sports
5 units on St. Louis +11.5 (UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR)
4 units on Arizona -1
3 units on Miami +3 -125
3 units on Cleveland & Pittsburgh Under 47.5
3 units on Atlanta +4
3 units on Cincinnati +3.5
2 units on Indy & San Diego Under 48
Psychic Sports Picks Members Area
11/11
NFL
2 units Jacksonville +4.5
2 units Indianapolis -3.5
2 units Chicago -3.5
3 units Philadelphia +3
3 units Ny Giants +1.5
3 units Arizona -1
5 units Miami +2.5
NFL Game of the Year
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:10pm -
0 likes
Dr. Bob Sports
Sunday NFL:
4 Star Selection
****Cincinnati 28 BALTIMORE (-4.0) 21
My math model has made a habit of picking against the Bengals this season (with good results), but last week's predictable loss at Buffalo may have finally caused the line to catch up with the fact that Cincinnati is a below average team. What the oddsmakers haven't quite discovered yet is that Baltimore is even worse. The problem with Cincinnati is a horrible defense that has allowed 6.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average team. Baltimore's offense, however, has averaged only 4.5 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they are still 0.9 yppl worse than average with Steve McNair in the game (Kyle Boller has only been slightly worse). The match-up between Baltimore's bad offense and Cincy's bad defense is a toss-up and the Ravens only averaged 4.8 yppl in their week 1 loss at Cincinnati. Normally the Ravens would make up for their bad offense with a great defense and the Ravens appeared to have another great defense in their first 2 games, allowing just 4.4 yppl to the Bengals and Jets. However, All-Pro CB Samari Rolle was injured in week 2 and has missed 4 of 6 games since. The other star corner Chris McAlister missed one game that Rolle played in and was on the sidelines with Rolle last week while Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger averaged 8.4 yards per pass play. The Ravens can still stop the run (3.0 ypr allowed), but their opponents have averaged 7.5 yards per pass play in the 5 games in which either Rolle or McAlister missed, compared to the 5.6 yppp allowed when both played. Rolle is expected to miss this game and McAlister couldn't finish practice on Thursday and is questionable. Baltimore's defense is 0.3 yppl better than average for the season, but the Ravens are 0.3 yppl worse than average without both star cornerbacks playing. Cincinnati has averaged 5.8 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and Carson Palmer will pick the Raven's injury ravaged secondary apart. Palmer may even be helped by the return of big play receiver Chris Henry, whose 8 game suspension is over. Henry made it tough for opponents to double team both Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and averaged 8.1 yards per pass thrown to him last season, which is considerably better than the pathetic 6.2 ypa that the Bengals 3rd and 4th receivers have averaged so far this year. Without even factoring in Henry's return the Bengals have a 0.9 yppl advantage over the Ravens' defense without Rolle (and probably without McAlister). Baltimore has a 1.9 points edge in special teams, but my math model favors Cincinnati by 1½ points in this game. In addition to the line value the Bengals apply to a very strong 47-7-1 ATS subset of a 76- 22-4 ATS situation while Baltimore applies to a negative 33-71-2 ATS situation. The record is 9-1 ATS when both of those situations apply to the same game (the only loss by just 2 points) and I'll take Cincinnati in a 4-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars as a dog of less than 3 points.
3 Star Selection
***Denver 21 KANSAS CITY (-3.0) 16
Denver has been horrible lately and they hit rock bottom last week in a 7-44 loss at Detroit. The Broncos are now just 1-7 ATS this season, but teams that are 2-6 or worse against the spread in the first half of the season are pretty good bets in the second half of the season as the line adjusts. The Broncos' offense hasn't been quite as good without WR Jevon Walker the last 5 games and the loss of C Tom Nalen has hurt the rushing attack the last 3 games. Even after making adjustments for those injuries I still rate the Broncos attack at 0.2 yards per play better than average with Jay Cutler in the game (he missed most of last week's loss after getting sacked in the first quarter but is listed as probable for this game). Kansas City's defense is only 0.1 yppl better than average for the season after getting beaten for 433 yards at 7.1 yppl last week by Green Bay, so the Broncos have a slight advantage when they have the ball. Denver's defense has also been a problem, allowing 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team, but the Chiefs' offense is 0.9 yppl worse than average (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and will be without RB Larry Johnson this week. Johnson has averaged only 3.5 ypr this season behind a bad offensive line and with teams stacked to stop him, so I don't expect Priest Holmes to do any better (although I didn't downgrade the Chiefs rushing attack either). Denver actually has a 0.2 yppl advantage against the Chiefs' horrible offense. Kansas City does have an advantage in projected turnovers, but my math model favors the Chiefs by only 2 points in this game and Denver applies to a very strong 68-16-1 ATS bounce-back situation while Kansas City applies to a negative 26-86 ATS situation. Those two angles actually overlap quite a bit and the record is 22-4 ATS for the road team when they do both apply to the same game, including 17-0 ATS since 1992. I'll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars if they're a dog of less than 3 points (or at +3 at -120 odds or higher).
3 Star Selection
***St. Louis 22 NEW ORLEANS (-11.5) 23
The Rams are 0-8 straight up and 1-7 ATS with their only spread win coming by just ½ a point. New Orleans made it to the NFC Championship game last season and appears to be back in top form with 4 straight wins after starting the season 0-4. Nobody would want to take the Rams under those circumstances and the oddmakers know it. To compensate for the fact that nobody wants to bet the Rams or bet against the Saints the oddsmakers have inflated the pointspread on this game and I have no problems taking the woeful Rams in this situation. Winless teams are usually very good bets as underdogs against mediocre teams, as 0-5 teams or worse are 79-38-3 ATS as underdogs against teams with a win percentage of less than .750. The Rams have failed in that role 3 times this season, but this time they qualify in a 40-11-2 ATS subset of that angle and this time the line value is clearly in their favor. St. Louis played better offensively before their bye week, averaging 6.1 yards per play against the Browns with Marc Bulger looking like Marc Bulger (310 yards on 36 pass plays). I actually don't expect Bulger to suddenly be great again and the Rams offense is still 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). That unit is actually 0.5 yppl worse than average with Bulger in the lineup and they'll have another chance to look good against a bad defensive team, just as they did in week 8 against the Browns. While the Saints do look close to last year offensively in recent weeks, they are not close to being as good overall as they were a year ago because their defense is horrible. The Saints were only slightly worse than average defensively last season but they've allowed 5.9 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The pass defense is the worst I've seen in years (7.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.7 yppp against an average team) and that unit just gave up 344 aerial yards at 9.8 yppp to Jaguars' backup quarterback Quinn Gray, who had previously been horrible. The Rams' offense actually has an advantage over the Saints' defense in this game, which is rare for a double-digit dog. New Orleans has improved offensively in recent weeks, but the Saints are still just 0.2 yppl better than average on the attack side of the ball this season while the Rams are only 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The difference is not necessarily Drew Brees, who has completed a career best 67% of his passes, but the receiving corps. Brees' receivers have not been as good this season as teams can now double team Marques Colston without having to worry about getting beaten by Pro Bowl receiver Joe Horn, who is now in Atlanta. Colston averaged a very good 14.8 yards per catch last season but has averaged just 11.5 ypc this year and Brees has averaged a pathetic 9.7 yards per completion this year because the receivers haven't been able to get open deep (12.4 ypc last year). The offense has looked better the last two weeks because Brees has completed 75% of his passes, a rate that he is unlikely to continue. The rushing attack has averaged just 3.8 yards per rush and the Saints' offense would only be 0.5 yppl better than average if I used Brees' two year passing numbers instead of just this season. So, even if the passing attack is indeed back to being good the Saints are still 0.3 yppl worse than average overall from the line of scrimmage (+0.5 on offense and -0.8 on defense) and they have bad special teams too. My math model only favors New Orleans by 6 points and that number would be 7½ points if I used Brees' two year pass rating instead of just this season. Not only is there plenty of line value on the side of the Rams but their bye week allowed them to get healthier and to refocus themselves. Bad teams that enter their bye week on a losing streak often come out of the bye week playing much better and with renewed enthusiasm. In fact, winless teams are 20-3 ATS as an underdog or pick after their bye week with the 3 spread losses coming by just 1 point, 1 point and 1½ points. New Orleans managed to cover last week despite a horrible defensive performance, but the Saints are just 2-8 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more under coach Sean Payton, including 1-4 ATS this season. I'll take St. Louis in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 2-Stars from +9½ points to +7½ points.
3 Star Selection
***ARIZONA (-1.0) 28 Detroit 19
The only difference between these two teams this season has been turnover differential (Detroit is +8 and Arizona is -9) and that discrepancy is not something that is likely to continue. Detroit may be 6-2 but the Lions are really just an average team that has been helped by turnovers. The Lions have been 0.3 yards per play better than average on offense (5.7 yppl with Kitna in the game against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team) and 1.2 points worse than average in special teams. Arizona is 3-5 but the Cardinals are also an average team that has been hurt by turnovers. The Cardinals have actually out-gained their opponents 5.3 yppl to 5.0 yppl this season against teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl and allow 5.0 yppl to an average team. The Cardinals are actually 0.7 yppl better than average offensively with Kurt Warner at quarterback instead of injured Matt Leinart, as Leinart was 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average (5.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while Warner has been 1.3 yppp better than average (7.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp). Some of those numbers were enhanced when Warner came in off the bench and ran the comeback offense from the shotgun formation against teams playing prevent defenses, but Warner has been 1.2 yppp better than average in his two starts (6.3 yppp on the road against very good Washington and Tampa Bay defenses that would combine to allow 5.1 yppp at home to an average QB). Arizona is a better overall team from the line of scrimmage than Detroit and the turnovers should be about even in this game given that Kitna and Warner have about the same lifetime interception rate and fumbles are 90% random in the NFL. My math model favors Arizona by 3½ points in this game and the Cardinals apply to a 48-12-1 ATS home bounce-back situation that is based on their two road losses. Detroit has allowed just 7 points in each of their last two games despite having a slightly worse than average defense for the season. That high level of defense is unlikely to continue, however, as teams that allow less than 10 points in consecutive games are 42% ATS over the last 28 years in their next game and Detroit applies to a 31-86 ATS subset of that general situation. The Lions also haven't played as well on the road as they have at home under coach Rod Marinelli and they're just 2-8 ATS on the road under Marinelli when not getting at least 10 points and 1-3 ATS on the road after a win. Detroit has always been bad on the road after a win (39- 60-2 ATS) and even worse off back-to-back wins (12-28-1 ATS, including 1-10-1 ATS recently, 0-1 this year with a 21-56 loss at Philly). I'll take Arizona in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and I'll make the Cardinals a 2-Star Best Bet from -1½ to -3 points.
2 Star Selection
**PITTSBURGH (-9.5) 33 Cleveland 16
Cleveland is now 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS with Derek Anderson as the starting quarterback but the 6 teams that the Browns covered against are all at .500 or worse and have a combined record of 12-36 while they were blown out by 17 points at New England and lost 7-34 at home to the Steelers in week 1 when Anderson took over in the quarterback spot in the middle of the game. Beating bad teams does not prepare you to compete with the likes of New England or Pittsburgh and the Steelers offense should take advantage of a bad Cleveland defense (5.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) while Pittsburgh's stingy defense (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl) slows down a good Browns attack that is 1.1 yppl better than average with Anderson at the helm. There isn't any line value in this game, but Pittsburgh applies to a 74-25-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator, a 162-92-8 ATS statistical profile indicator and a 63-25-4 ATS statistical profile indicator that pegs them as having the statistical characteristics of a team that should cover as a big home favorite. That has certainly been the case this season, as Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS at home (all as big favorites) with all 4 victories being by 21 points or more. I'll take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Strong Opinion
San Francisco 16 SEATTLE (-10.0) 20
San Francisco is the 2nd worst team in the NFL, but the Niners aren't so bad that they can't cover as a double-digit dog against a sub-par Seattle team in a negative situation. Seattle has been solid defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, but the Seahawks have been 0.2 yppl below average on offense (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they're even worse without WR Deion Branch in the lineup the last 3 games (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Branch will probably miss this game too, or not be 100% if he does play. What makes Branch important is that he's averaged 9.5 yards per pass thrown to him while the 3 other receivers taking his place combine to average just 5.9 yards per pass attempted. Branch had 36 passes thrown to him in 5 games and those 7.2 attempts are now resulting in 3.6 yards less per throw, which is 25.9 yards per game, 0.7 yards per pass play and 0.4 yppl which equates to about 2 points per game. My math model favors the Seahawks by 8½ points without Branch playing and by 10½ points if he is 100% healthy. The Niners apply to a very good 226-109-9 ATS contrary indicator while Seattle applies to a negative 33-89-1 ATS situation that is based on their bad defense last week. I should probably make the Niners a Best Bet based on the good technical support and a bit of line value, but I simply don't trust them enough. I will consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion in this game at +8 points or more.
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:11pm -
0 likes
spritzer--
nfc blowout goy...............ariz
5 star hammer...........oak
tko...................sd
ko...............rams,balt
5star total...............det under 44.5
insider...................nyg
dog shocker gom.........wizzards
tko.................lac
also releasing loymd
feist--
sun night goy...........sd
inner circle...............kc
platinum............rams over 46
personal best..........bills over 41,bears
totals..........car under 35.5, jax under 35
personal elite...........clev over 46
teaser............pitt-ariz
personal elite.............rockets
also releasing brown
cokin--
fat man releases.......oak+3.5, lac
under the hat...........gb
window...............nyg
total.................jax under 35
big shot...............den
super total............gb under 40
LENNY STEVENS
20 star afc game of the year miami
20 star philadelphia
10 star tennessee
10 star arizona
10 star ny giants
Sebastian 100% confirmed
100* dal -1
50* arz -1
30* phi +3
20* mia +3
20* min +5-
20* under ind/sd 47-
20* tease sd +10 and under ind/sd 54
10* cle +10
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:12pm -
0 likes
WAYNE ROOT:
Chairman - Chargers
Millionaire - Ravens
Money Maker - Packers
No Limit - Cardinals
Insider Circle - NY Giants
Billionaire - Dolphins
big al
3* Afc West Goy - Broncos
3* Nfc Goy - Rams
3* Sunday Night Goy - Chargers
3* Over Falcons - Arizona
Opinion - Raiders
Opinion - Clippers
NFL Week 10 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
SportsInsights’ exclusive data verifies what our sportsbooks contacts are saying: that “smart money†is going to Jacksonville. This is a situation where recent performance is giving us value on Jax.
Tennessee has won three games in a row. Meanwhile, Jacksonville lost badly to New Orleans, 41-24 last week. With the Public loading up on Tennessee, we see value on Jax in this huge divisional match-up.
The status of QB Garrard will be a game time decision. We believe he’ll play and add a much-needed passing threat to the Jaguar’s offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
The line opened at KC -4. However, even with almost 8 out of every 10 bets coming in on KC, the line dropped to KC -3! That is a huge move to the “key 3†number, meaning “big money†is coming in on Denver.
The sharps are on Denver, “buying on bad news†– after last week’s embarrassing loss to Detroit. We’re optimistic that Denver QB Cutler will start and be effective. We’ll join the “sharps†and expect Denver to make some noise in the tight AFC West scramble.
Denver Broncos +3
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
The public is pounding their bets down on Detroit like they know the score. A massive 9 out of 10 bets are coming in on Detroit. STILL – the line actually reversed (!!) – with the line opening at Detroit -1 but moving to Arizona -1.5 in some places.
This is a seemingly “soft line,†with the 6-2 Detroit Lions being a 1 point dog to a 3-5 Arizona team. “Soft lines†often indicate “value†– and in this case, the “smart money†is on Arizona big time. Another source of value on Arizona – is Detroit’s thrashing of the Broncos last weekend. Let’s sell Detroit on a “high†and grab the “zero pick-em line†that’s still out there.
Arizona Cardinals Pick’em
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 10.
Games to Watch (16-10-1 = 61.5%)
Jacksonville +4.5
Denver +3
Arizona Pick’em
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:14pm -
0 likes
ATS Lock
REGULAR ( Anything below 5*) 7-3-2 (70%) (4-0-1 L2W)
Big Al
TOP ( Anything not rated GOM, GOW, GOY plays) 11-6-1 (65%)
Brandong Lang
REGULAR ( Anything below 30*) 19-11-2 (63%) Totals 3-0
Gameday
Regular (Plays below 4*) 13-10-1(56%) (0-3 LW)
Pointwise
REGULAR (anything below 4*)26-17-1 (60%) (19-7-1 (73%) (L5W) 11/11/07 PlaysSeattle, Baltimore, San Diego, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Minnesota
Spylock
REGULAR (anything below 3*) 9-4 (69%) 11/11/07 Plays Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Indianpolis
Lenny Stevens
REGULAR (Anything below 20*) 9-3 (75%)
Sebastian
SPECIAL (100* AND ABOVE) 4-1-1 (80%)
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:16pm -
0 likes
some of the bad guys in the NFL
Dr Bob
REGULAR (Aything below 3*) 14-16-3 (46%) (3-10 (30%) L3W)
These do not include STRONG OPININS
Mike Neri
REGULAR (anything below 4*) 10-14-2 (41%)
Northcoast
REGULAR (Anything below 4*) 5-14 (26%) (0-4 LW)
Private Plaayers Of Pittsburgh (PPP)
SPECIAL (5* or Higher) 4-9 (30%)
Purelock
1-5-1 (16%)
Spreizter
SPECIALs (GOM, GOY) 2-6-1 (25%)
Lenny Stevens
SPECIAL (Anything above 20*) 0-4
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:16pm -
0 likes
Pointwise Phones
3* Seattle
3* Baltimore
3* San Diego
3* Jacksonville
2* Buffalo
2* Minnesota
Spylock
5 Miami
5 Oakland
Ats Football Lock
Indy -3 8 Units
NYG +2 8 Units
Chi -3 8 Units
Philly +3 8 Units
2 Unit Round Robin par on the above 4 games....thats 6 2unit parlays
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:18pm -
0 likes
Wolkosky Milan
229-169-11 last seventy eight days
8-2 Yesterday!
Today:
10* JAGUARS +4½
10* BILLS -2½
10* PITTSBURGH -9½
10* RAVENS -3½
10* FALCONS +4½
10* VIKINGS +6
10* COWBOYS -1
5* LA CLIPPERS +1
5* WASHINGTON +4½
5* MIAMI +3
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:18pm -
0 likes
Mike Neri
3* Denver
3* Giants
3* Arizona
PPP
5 Pittsburgh
5 New Orleans Over
3 Titans
3 Minnesota
3 Pitt over
3 Arizona over
JB Sports
3* Denver
3* Eagles
3* Baltimore
3* Chicago
2* San Diego
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:24pm -
0 likes
SERVICE REPORT
ATS Lock Club...............8*Indianapolis,NYGiants,Chicago ,Philadelphia
......................................4*Jacksonvil le & Buffalo
Brandon Lang...............25*Pittsburgh
......................................5*Philadelph ia, Tennessee, NYGiants
......................................Sunday Night Opinion: San Diego
Dave Cokin....................Under The Hat: GreenBay
......................................Window Play: NYGiants
......................................System Play: St Louis Rams
......................................Big Shot: Denver
......................................3*Oakland & Indianapolis
Director Sports...............KansasCity, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Minnesota
Frank Magliosa..............NYGiants, Oakland, Miami
Gold Sheet....................Top: Indy/SD(U)
......................................Regular: Buffalo, New Orleans & NYGiants
Guarantee Picks............Kansas City
Jim Feist........................Inner Circle: Kansas City
......................................Platinum: StL/NO(O)
......................................Personal Best: Buffalo & Buf/Mia(O)
......................................Sunday Night Game Of The Year: San Diego
......................................Underdog Of The Week: Atlanta
......................................4*Cleveland 3*St Louis
Joe Gavazzi(PPP).........5*Pittsburgh & StL/NO(O)
.....................................3*Tennessee, Minnesota & Detr/Ariz(O)
Las Vegas Sports..........10*Cleveland & Green Bay
Lenny Stevens...............AFC Game Of The Year: Miami
......................................20*Philadelp hia
......................................10*Tennessee , Arizona & NYGiants
LT Profits.......................Atlanta, Philadelphia & Oakland
Northcoast.....................3.5*Arizona
......................................38Green Bay & StL/NO(O)
PureLock.......................Minnesota
Sebastian......................100*Dallas
......................................50*Arizona
Texas Sports Brokers....10*Miami 5*NYGiants & San Diego
Underdog Sportsline......Underdog Game Of The Month: St Louis
......................................Top: San Diego
.......................................Regular: Atlanta & Philadelphia
VIP Lock Club................500%Arizona
Wayne Root...................Billionaire: Miami
......................................Millionaire: Baltimore
......................................Inner Circle: NYGiants
......................................No Limit: Arizona
......................................Money Maker: Green Bay
......................................Chairman Of The Board: San Diego
Winners Path................Top: Tennessee
.....................................Regular: San Diego & NYGiants
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:40pm -
0 likes
1. Ats 8-nyg, Indy, Chi, Phil
2. Bankers 400-den Under, 300-dal, Ariz
3. Ben Burns Ariz, Mia, Sd, Sd Under, Pitt Under
4. Big Money Det
5. Blazer 3-buff, Det
6. Carolina Sports 3-cin, Den, Stl, Mia, Minn Under
7. Doc Enterprises 4-nyg, 3-clev, Gb
8. Dr. Bob 4-cin, 3-den, Stl, Ariz, 2-pitt
9. Gameday 3-pitt, 2-phil, Ariz
10. Inside Info 3-no, 2-gb, Tennj
11. Joe D 15-minn, Balt
12. Lenny Stevens 20-mia, Phil, 10-tenn, Ariz, Nyg
13. Lt Profits 3-atl, 2-phil, Oak
14. Nationwide (goldst) Top: Indy Under, Reg: Buff, No, Nyg
15. Neri 3-den, Nyg, Ariz
16. Northcoast 3 1/2-ariz, 3-gb, St Louis Over
17. Pointwise 3-sd, Jax, 2-buff, Min
18. Preferred Picks 3-mia, St Louis, Nyg
19. Private Players 5-pitt, No Over, 3-tenn, Minn, Pitt Over, Det Over
20. Score 400-wash, 300-chi, Indy
21. Underdog San Diego
22. Pure Lock Chi
posted by phantom
Nov. 11 2007 12:42pm