NEWSLETTERS FOR WEEK OF 10/31
THE GOLDSHEET
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4
Washington 20 - NY JETS 13--Things seem to be going from bad to worse for laboring 1-7 N.Y. The defense, 28th in the NFL through Week Seven, is now without MLB anchor Jonathan Vilma (knee), the team's leading tackler LY. The pass rushers have recorded only 8 sacks; the unit only 6 interceptions. Is it going to Kellen Clemens this week in place of finesse-throwing Chad Pennington? The speedy Washington secondary of No. 1 draft picks will be in a bad mood after last week's 52-point humiliation in Foxborough. Jets 1-6-1 vs. the spread.
(03-WASHINGTON -3 16-13...SR: Washington 7-1)
KANSAS CITY 19 - Green Bay 13--They're not scoring many style points these days in K.C. (in fact, they're not scoring many points at all), but Herm Edwards' teams have long been able to get the most out of aggressive defense and low-risk offense. And with impact DE Jared Allen racking up sacks in bunches (8 already!), Edwards has the playmaker necessary to disrupt Brett Favre's timing, especially since the Pack not running the ball with much authority. Chiefs (13-5-1 vs. line as host since '05) usually offer good value at Arrowhead.
(03-Kansas City +2 40-34 (OT)...SR: Kansas City 6-2-1)
Arizona 21 - TAMPA BAY 20--Jeff Garcia had quickly become Jon Gruden's favorite QB because of his quickness in the pocket and care with the football (no ints. until 3 last week). But Arizona's bye came at a good time for Kurt Warner and his ailing left elbow, as the QB lacks similar escapability and ball possession skills. But he has excellent targets, and Ken Whisenhunt's Cards running with determination TY (E. James 605 YR). Arizona 4-0-1 as a dog in 2007 and 20-5-1 "over" last 26 on the road. (04-ARIZONA -3' 12-7...SR: Arizona 8-7)
Carolina 19 - TENNESSEE 13--Not sure if Carolina better off with old Vinny Testaverde (check ankle tendinitis) or unsteady David Carr at QB. But Panthers probably resourceful enough to hang tight vs. low-variance Tennessee, which doesn't offer the same value when favored (2-5 last 7 in role) as it does as underdog (10-0-1 last 11!). John Fox's veteran Panther defense should limit the damage the still-learning Vince Young (only 6 of 14, 42 YP in return to starting lineup last week) can cause, and PK Bironas' FG prowess (10 of 'em last 2 weeks!) alone not enough to push Titans over hump. (03-Tenn. +1' 37-17...SR: EVEN 1-1)
ATLANTA 19 - San Francisco 13--The idea of Byron Leftwich being the starter for Atlanta for the rest of the season lasted less than one game before the oft-injured QB suffered a high ankle sprain. So it's back to Joey Harrington (63.4%, 4 TDs, 4 ints.) for the grumbling Falcs, with rash CB D. Hall blasting management for releasing DT Grady Jackson (allegedly for "football reasons"), making more playing time available for promising rookie Trey Lewis. However, S.F.'s offense (9 ppg last 4) even less trustworthy than Falcs. "Under" might provide a better option (Atlanta 5-2 "under" TY; 16-6-1 last 23).
(04-Atlanta -3 21-19...SR: San Francisco 44-27-1)
Jacksonville 24 - NEW ORLEANS 13--As HC Sean Payton predicted when the Saints were 0-4, his team would fight back. And, indeed, N.O. since has three straight wins, with Drew Brees hitting 8 TDs vs. only 1 int. during win streak. However, Jacksonville is the bigger, meaner and tougher of these two teams, with QB Quinn Gray (7 of 16, 1 TD, no ints.) playing with poise in a tough environment at Tampa Bay in his first NFL start. The New Orleans defense (11 sacks, only 3 ints.) not super intimidating, and Saints only 3 covers last 14 when favored.
(03-JACKSONVILLE -2' 20-19...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)
Denver 24 - DETROIT 23--Detroit (5-2) is half way to Jon Kitna's much-scoffed-at preseason forecast of double-digit wins for the Honolulu Blue! And the pass-happy Lions even out-rushed the "Monsters of the Midway" 119-63 last week, while picking off 4 passes at Chicago. However, Denver's quick pass rushers hasseled Ben Roethlisberger into 4 sacks, two ints., and 1 fumble two weeks ago. Can they do the same vs. Detroit's high-risk aerial game (35 sacks) while ball hawks Champ Bailey and Dre' Bly (former Lion) blanket two of his receivers? Denver 10-1 "over" last 11 prior to Monday nighter vs. G.B.
(03-DENVER -12 20-16...SR: Denver 6-3)
BUFFALO 23 - Cincinnati 17--Whether it's Trent Edwards or J.P. Losman (key 85-yd. TDP last week at the Jets) at the controls, Buffalo has much more going for it in terms of defense and chemistry than 2-5 Cincy. Bills have fought through their injuries on defense, while Bengals have often languished in their problems, despite their proven talent on offense. Young DBs and LBs have helped generate 4 straight covers for Buffalo, which has also covered all 4 home games TY (and 8 of last 9 at Orchard Park).
(05-Buffalo +13' 37-27...SR: Buffalo 13-11)
San Diego 26 - MINNESOTA 13--Chargers now bringing their excellent talent to bear, cruising past last three opponents by a margin of 26 ppg. And, with Vikes' continuing QB issues (will it be Brooks Bollinger starting this week?), things will become increasingly difficult for rookie RB star Adrian Peterson (740 YR). Minny's pass defense (323 yds. vs. Philly last week) still problematic, while S.D. QB Rivers had 3 TDP last week and former Dolphin Chris Chambers caught a TDP in first game with the Bolts.
(03-SAN DIEGO +5' 42-28...SR: San Diego 5-4)
Seattle 27 - CLEVELAND 26--Seattle might no longer be able to lean as heavily upon Shaun Alexander, whose style isn't working lately because Seahawk OL failing to create the cut-back lanes Alexander once found with regularity for big runs. Or maybe it's because Alexander is now on the other side of 30. Yet Seattle's arsenal still plenty potent if WRs Deion Branch & D.J. Hackett return from injury (as expected), providing Matt Hasselbeck with improved targets. Cleveland "O" continues to percolate, but suspect 2ndary ranks way down in pass defense, contributing to Browns going "over" 6-0-1 in 2007. (03-SEATTLE -6 34-7...SR: Seattle 11-4)
INDIANAPOLIS 27 - New England 24--Indy has won & covered the last three meetings, including LY's exciting AFC title game, when the Colts trailed 21-6 at the half, but rallied to score the winning TD in the final minute. Who can knock N.E. and its 8-0 SU and spread record, 41 ppg offense, and Tom Brady's 30 TDP? No one. But if there is a more worthy foe than Indy to be a home underdog in the NFL, you've got a scoop. With Peyton Manning also at the top of his game, and with the healthy Bob Sanders leading 2007's quicker Colt defense, value lies with undefeated champs (13 straight home wins).
(06-Indy 27-N. ENG. 20...24-24 N.33/148 I.25/53 I.20/36/1/301 N.20/35/4/201 I.1 N.1)
(06-INDY 38-N. Eng. 34...I.32-17 I.30/125 N.24/93 I.27/47/1/330 N.21/34/1/226 I.0 N.0)
(06-Indianapolis +3 27-20, INDIANAPOLIS -3 38-34 (Playoffs)...SR: New England 43-27)
Houston 20 - OAKLAND 17--Yes, Houston was terrible in last week's 35-10 embarrassment in San Diego. But Oakland (0-3 when favored TY) has struggled for three straight games, generating a paltry 11 ppg. And the Raiders were fortunate not to get beat worse than 13-9 last week in Tennessee, when they recovered 3 of the 4 Daunte Culpepper fumbles. Whether it's Matt Schaub or Sage Rosenfels, the Texans bring more QBing to bear than the host, which has covered only 7 of last 28 in the "Not So Dark Hole."
(06-Hou. 23-OAK. 14...O.21-10 H.32/129 O.26/113 O.25/42/2/189 H.7/14/0/M5 H.2 O.3)
(06-Houston +3 23-14...SR: Houston 2-0)
UNDER THE TOTAL *Dallas 22 - PHILADELPHIA 16--Cowboys coughed up NFC East lead with pair of losses vs. Philly LY, with Terrell Owens limited to just 5 recs. for 68 yards by his old mates. Meanwhile, Donovan McNabb appeared to have regained his old form last week, hitting 23 of 36 for 333 YP vs. the Vikes, with no ints. & just two sacks (after 25 knockdowns the previous 6 games). But was that outburst vs. Minny a true indication of "problem solved" in Philly? We think not, with improved, rested, more versatile Dallas having the edge on both offense and defense. Eagles "under" 8 of last 11. TV--NBC
(06-PHIL. 38-Dal. 24...D.23-16 D.39/146 P.18/52 P.18/33/0/331 D.18/38/3/174 P.2 D.2)
(06-Phil. 23-DAL. 7...P.20-16 P.42/204 D.19/83 P.15/23/1/222 D.14/29/2/118 P.0 D.1)
(06-PHILADELPHIA +1 38-24, Philadelphia +7 23-7...SR: Dallas 53-42)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5
*PITTSBURGH 24 - Baltimore 20--QB Steve McNair (groin, back) and CB Chris McAlister (knee) are both expected to return for Baltimore. Both have lost something since their prime. However, bye week should help them stay within relatively roomy number, as Ben Roethlisberger was plenty bothered (4 sacks, 2 ints., 1 fumble) by the Denver pressure two weeks ago. And Baltimore (4 straight covers in series) can bring plenty of heat, as well. Steelers "over" 36-10-1 as host (but 1-2 TY). CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-BALT. 27-Pitt 0...B.19-17 B.35/114 P.11/21 B.21/27/0/161 P.22/42/2/151 B.0 P.1)
(06-Balt. 31-PITT 7...B.23-16 B.33/103 P.18/63 B.21/31/2/256 P.19/42/2/188 B.1 P.1)
(06-BALTIMORE -3 27-0, Baltimore +3' 31-7...SR: Pittsburgh 14-9)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Baltimore and Pittsburgh on Monday Night
Baltimore is 1-3 straight-up and 2-2 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
3-1 straight-up and 3-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Pittsburgh is 20-5 straight-up and 18-7 vs. the spread at home on Monday Night Football;
13-17 straight-up and 15-14-1 vs. the spread on the road on Monday Night Football.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-07)
Favorites vs. Pointspread
Favored by 1-6½ points Won 86, Lost 89, Tied 4
Favored by 7 points or more Won 33, Lost 26, Tied 2
Total Favorites Won 119, Lost 115, Tied 6
Home Teams vs. Pointspreads
Home Team Favorite Won 84, Lost 85, Tied 6
Home Team Underdog Won 30, Lost 34
Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0
Total Home Team Won 115, Lost 119, Tied 6
2007 MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS
Cincinnati -2½ beat Baltimore 27-20 at Cincinnati o40
San Francisco -3 beat Arizona 20-17 at San Francisco u45
Washington +6½ beat Philadelphia 20-12 at Philadelphia u39
Tennessee +4½ beat New Orleans 31-14 at New Orleans n45
New England -7½ beat Cincinnati 34-13 at Cincinnati u53½
Dallas -10 beat Buffalo 25-24 at Buffalo o45
NY Giants -4 beat Atlanta 31-10 at Atlanta u43½
Indianapolis -3 beat Jacksonville 29-7 at Jacksonville u44½
NFL KEY RELEASES
CAROLINA by 6 over Tennessee
JACKSONVILLE by 11 over New Orleans
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Dallas-Philadelphia game
NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona 9 2 3-4 4-2-1 4-3 21-22 2-1 18-20 2-1 23-25
Atlanta 10 1 1-6 4-3 2-5 14-22 1-2 19-25 3-1 10-20
Baltimore- 8 2 4-3 1-6 2-3 18-17 1-2 23-13 0-4 14-20
Buffalo 10 3 3-4 5-2 2-5 14-19 4-0 19-17 1-2 8-22
Carolina- 8 2 4-3 4-3 2-5 19-20 0-3 12-28 4-0 24-14
Chicago- 9 2 3-5 2-6 4-4 18-23 0-4 17-24 2-2 19-22
Cincinnati- 10 2 2-5 3-4 4-3 25-30 2-2 23-27 1-2 29-34
Cleveland 8 3 4-3 5-2 6-0 28-29 3-1 32-31 2-1 23-27
Dallas 1 3 6-1 5-2 5-2 32-23 3-1 33-26 2-1 32-18
Denver 6 2 3-3 1-5 5-1 18-27 1-3 18-28 0-2 18-26
Detroit 9 4 5-2 4-2-1 3-4 22-25 2-0 27-20 2-2 19-30
Green Bay 7 3 5-1 4-1-1 4-2 24-18 2-1 21-20 2-0 29-15
Houston 11 2 3-5 3-5 5-2 22-26 2-2 26-23 1-3 19-30
Indianapolis+ -4 3 7-0 5-2 3-4 32-15 3-0 37-15 2-2 28-15
Jacksonville 4 3 5-2 4-3 3-4 19-16 1-3 17-17 3-0 21-15
Kansas City 8 4 4-3 4-2-1 2-5 15-16 1-1 16-16 3-1 14-17
Miami 13 2 0-8 2-4-2 5-3 21-31 0-3 22-40 1-1 23-28
Minnesota 11 2 2-5 2-3-2 3-4 19-20 1-2 19-16 1-1 19-22
New England+ -9 5 8-0 8-0 7-1 41-16 4-0 41-11 4-0 42-21
New Orleans+ 5 2 3-4 2-5 3-3 19-23 0-3 16-21 2-2 21-25
NY Giants 4 3 6-2 5-3 4-3 25-20 3-1 24-19 2-1 30-24
NY Jets 13 2 1-7 1-6-1 4-3 17-26 0-3 14-24 1-3 21-28
Oakland 11 3 2-5 3-4 4-3 19-22 0-3 19-24 3-1 20-20
Philadelphia 6 3 3-4 3-4 2-5 20-17 1-2 28-20 2-2 14-14
Pittsburgh 3 4 5-2 5-2 3-4 26-13 3-0 28-6 2-2 25-18
St. Louis 16 2 0-8 1-7 2-6 12-27 1-3 20-26 0-4 5-29
San Diego 3 3 4-3 4-3 4-2 25-18 3-1 23-14 1-2 26-24
San Francisco 13 1 2-5 2-4-1 3-4 13-24 1-2 10-20 1-2 16-29
Seattle 8 4 4-3 3-4 2-5 20-15 2-2 24-15 1-2 14-16
Tampa Bay 8 4 4-4 3-4-1 3-5 18-17 2-1 23-13 1-3 14-21
Tennessee 5 1 5-2 4-2-1 1-5 21-17 1-2 18-15 3-0 23-18
Washington 9 3 4-3 2-3-2 2-4 18-20 1-2 22-15 1-1 14-27
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “Oâ€â€”Offense. “Dâ€â€”Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions. ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years. TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 1
*Virginia Tech 19 - GEORGIA TECH 14--Scheduling favors Ga. Tech, which has extra week of prep, while visiting Hokies still trying to figure out how they let No. 2-ranked BC slip off hook. Not enamored of either sputtering offense. But Hokies' mobile true frosh QB T. Taylor (sprained ankle) expected back after sitting out vs. Eagles. And host without star RB Choice (knee). Doubt QB Bennett (only 2 TDP TY) can step up vs. defensively-stout Va. Tech (8-2 last 10 as a dog). CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-Ga. Tech 38-VA. TECH 27...V.25-11 G.36/149 V.27/42 V.27/54/0/339 G.9/17/2/176 G.0 V.2)
(06-Gtu +9' 38-27 05-VTU -10' 51-7 04-Vtu -5 34-20...SR: EVEN 2-2)
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 2
*Temple 21 - OHIO 20--Ohio U's move to soph Theo Scott at QB paid dividends at Bowling Green, but still prefer rested Temple. Owl defense has stiffened in last 3 games (all wins!), yielding just 17 ppg vs. N. Ill., Akron & Miami. Injury to Temple QB DiMichele not tremendously significant, as soph Vaughn Charlton has played in 14 games & has similar stats. (FIRST MEETING)
*BOWLING GREEN 31 - Akron 30--Not interested in laying any points with Bowling Green side that's dropped 9 in a row as a home favorite. While emergence of frosh RB Geter (293 YR last 2 games) a positive, Falcon defense ranks 112th against the run, and Zip jr. RB Bryan Williams has 201 YR in last 2 games. CABLE TV--ESPNU
(06-AKRON 35-B. Green 28...A.28-21 A.39/222 B.38/176 A.17/25/1/248 B.20/36/0/192 A.1 B.0)
(06-AKRON -8 35-28 05-Akron +14 24-14...SR: Bowling Green 8-7)
*Nevada 41 - NEW MEXICO ST. 33--Nevada's defense won't be mistaken for the Pittsburgh Steelers', so Hal Mumme's NMSU Air Raid will produce now that QB Holbrook back in lineup. But Wolf Pack Pistol capable of attacking via ground (slamming RB Lippincott 547 YR last 3!) or air (strong-armed RS frosh Kaepernick 6 TDP and 0 picks in 3 starts), and Aggie "D" yields 40 ppg. TV--ESPN2
(06-NEV. 48-Nms 21...Nv.23-14 Nv.41/236 Nm.23/17 Nm.29/47/3/278 Nv.20/33/3/230 Nv.1 Nm.2)
(06-NEVADA -17' 48-21 05-Nevada -9' 48-24...SR: Nevada 9-1)
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3
INDIANA 35 - Ball State 34--This figures to be an entertaining shootout between Indiana QB Kellen Lewis and Ball State's Nate Davis. Cardinal cover at Illinois made BSU 12-1 vs. the number in last 13 on the road. Hoosiers have 9 TOs in last 2 games and lack the quality RB to hurt Card "D" as Illinois' Mendenhall did last week.
(06-Ind. 24-BALL ST. 23...I.20-14 I.29/147 B.22/41 B.21/33/1/289 I.16/33/0/226 I.0 B.0)
(06-Indiana -3' 24-23...SR: Indiana 3-0)
Rutgers 23 - CONNECTICUT 19--7-1 UConn has covered 5 straight behind an underrated "D" that hasn't allowed more than 17 points and an offense that doesn't beat itself. Prefer Rutgers' firepower, however. Stellar jr. RB Rice (4055 YR last 2+ seasons) is most productive force on field. If QB Teel's receivers get over recent "dropsies," Knights capable of knocking Huskies off their perch atop Big East.
(06-RUT. 24-Conn. 13...C.12-11 C.44/188 R.29/114 R.11/24/1/123 C.8/17/1/67 R.1 C.2)
(06-RUT. -19' 24-13 05-Rut. -3' 26-24 04-Conn. -3 41-35...SR: Connecticut 3-2)
SOUTH FLORIDA 28 - Cincinnati 27--Both have lost 2 straight after opening campaign with 6 straight victories (combined 9-1 vs. spread). Home-field edge at Tampa, where Bulls have won 7 straight (6-0 vs. spread), should help do-it-all soph QB Grothe pull out victory. Still, no surprise if veteran Cincy QB Mauk & rested Bearcats able to hang inside spread.
(06-CINCY 23-S. Fla. 6...C.17-13 C.46/191 S.29/92 S.19/36/1/127 C.11/18/0/105 C.0 S.2)
(06-CINCY +1' 23-6 05-USF -20 31-16 04-CINCY -12 45-23...SR: EVEN 2-2)
NORTHWESTERN 26 - Iowa 21--Respect Iowa's tremendous 2nd-half effort at home vs. Michigan St., but Northwestern's spread capable of successfully attacking tough Hawkeye defense. Return of top Wildcat RB Tyrell Sutton a definite plus, and QB Bacher remains productive (2 of his 3 ints. vs. Purdue were on target but tipped).
(06-Nwstrn. 21-IOWA 7...N.23-16 N.41/225 I.32/117 N.19/29/2/218 I.18/27/2/147 N.0 I.1)
(06-Northwestern +20 21-7 05-NORTHWESTERN +3 28-27...SR: Iowa 45-20-3)
Maryland 24 - NORTH CAROLINA 21--Dicey backing either of these deeply-flawed sides. Carolina one of youngest teams in country, and it shows. Meanwhile, Maryland's offensive production being stymied by OL injuries. Terps' superior defense should allow them to eke out small road victory. (05-Maryland +2' 33-30 (OT)...SR: N. Carolina 36-31-1)
North Carolina State 24 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 26--Wolfpack offense starting to click since jr. QB Evans (682 YP & 6 TDP in last 2 games) regained starting job. Also, emerging NCS soph RB Jamelle Eugene (276 YR last 3 games) helping balance attack. On other hand, Miami attack can't seem to get in groove with either QB Wright or Freeman (combined for 26 TDP & 27 ints. last 1+ seasons) at helm. Hurricanes (just 11-22 as home chalk since 2002!) blowing away their bettors' bankrolls at Orange Bowl.
(04-Miami-Florida -7' 45-31...SR: Miami-Florida 4-1)
Clemson 38 - DUKE 14--Home nature of series (host has covered 8 straight) somewhat vitiated by Duke's terrible spread record at mostly-empty Wallace Wade, where Devils just 3-12 last 15 on line. Hard-trying host can't cope with Clemson's offensive balance (QB Harper already has school record-tying 21 TDP TY) or speed on either side of ball. (05-CLEMSON -30 49-20 04-DUKE +12 16-13...SR: Clemson 33-16-1)
FLORIDA 29 - Vanderbilt 17--Since UF's "franchise" QB Tebow hampered by a bruised shoulder, don't trust Gator squad that's 0-8-1 as DD home chalk vs. SEC foes since '03. Vandy's balanced attack should have success vs. youthful Gator defense allowing 26 ppg. Aggressive 'Dore defense yields just 17 ppg, and Johnson's bowl-hungry squad (one more win to end 25-year drought!) an impressive 12-3 as visiting dog since '04.
(06-Fla. 25-VANDY 19...V.19-18 V.23/93 F.33/88 V.27/44/1/298 F.19/28/3/242 F.0 V.0)
(06-Fla. -16' 25-19 05-FLA. -18' 49-42 (OT) 04-Fla. -12 34-17...SR: Florida 29-9-2)
South Carolina 23 - ARKANSAS 20--Since USC still alive in wide-open SEC East, will take any points with never-say-die 'Cock squad (valiant comeback try from 21-0 deficit in OT loss at Tenn.), which is 10-2-1 as visitor since '05. USC's improved rush defense (held Vols to just 101 YR) prevents Arkansas' McFadden & F. Jones from exploding, while SEC's best 2ndary keeps Hogs now-healthy WR Monk mostly muzzled. 'Cocks previously-benched QB Mitchell completed 31 of 45 for 290 yds. week ago.
(06-Ark. 26-S. CAR. 20...A.23-20 A.50/267 S.15/51 S.22/40/1/289 A.11/20/2/228 A.0 S.0)
(06-Ark. -2' 26-20 05-Usc +4' 14-10 04-USC -4 35-32...SR: Arkansas 9-6)
BYU 38 - Colorado State 10--Since MWC frontrunner BYU benefits from unexpected bye week (due to postponement at San Diego State), more than willing to lay the lumber vs. depressed 1-7 CSU squad that didn't display much fortitude in 27-3 home loss vs. Utah last week (Rams trailed 20-3 at H). Cougars smooth-functioning aerial attack (329 ypg passing) exploits banged-up CSU 2ndary that's intercepted just 13 passes last 19 games. Roughed-up Rams just 5-14 last 19 vs. spread on road under Sonny Lubick, soon expected to announce his retirement, according to TGS sources.
06-Byu 24-COLO. ST. 3...B.21-7 B.37/112 C.23/26 B.22/30/1/290 C.13/23/0/125 B.0 C.0)
(06-Byu -15 24-3 05-BYU +2' 24-14 04-Byu +2' 31-21...SR: BYU 35-27-3)
Kansas State 26 - IOWA STATE 15--ISU improving, with two straight covers and only 2 giveaways last 2 games. K-State better balanced, with more big-time players, including powerful pocket passer Josh Freeman (6 TDP last 2 games) and star WR Jordy Nelson (76 recs.), who last week scored the Wildcats fifth STs TD of the season. Low-scoring Cyclones (16.5 ppg) can't stand any mistakes, but getting enough leadership to hang around.
(06-KAN. ST. 31-Ia. St. 10...I.21-15 K.32/156 I.35/104 I.23/41/1/280 K.14/20/1/161 K.0 I.2)
(06-KSU -4' 31-10 05-ISU -7' 45-17 04-Isu +11 37-23...SR: Iowa State 48-38-4)
KANSAS 45 - Nebraska 20--It's interesting to note NU was favored by 22½ in this matchup LY. But intelligent, well-executing Kansas (8-0 SU, 7-0 vs. the spread) rolling in 2007, while Husker defense (despite its frequent high-risk blitzes at Texas) gave up another 364 YR, making it 1235 ground yards the past four games! With hammering Jayhawk RB McAndrew coming off his best game (21 for 183 YR) and heady soph QB Reesing guiding the team to +11 in TOs, sky-high KU the choice.
(06-NEB. 39-Kan. 32 (OT)...K.26-16 K.40/169 N.32/116 K.27/54/3/405 N.15/33/0/395 N.3 K.1)
(06-NEB. -22' 39-32 (OT) 05-KAN. P 40-15 04-NEB. -12' 14-8...SR: Nebraska 88-22-3)
MEMPHIS 34 - East Carolina 33--No surprise well-regarded ECU one of C-USA's top contenders. Not many expected Memphis to be in thick of East Division chase, however. Tigers (8-2 vs. spread last 10 on board) capable of springing upset, as confident sr. QB Hankins (661 YP on 66% last 2 games) vs. vulnerable Pirate pass defense (permitted at least 300 YP in 4 of last 5 games), a matchup that works in favor of host.
(06-E. CAR. 35-Memp. 20...M.22-19 E.39/177 M.30/95 M.25/46/5/296 E.18/27/2/236 E.1 M.1)
(06-ECU -2' 35-20 05-MEMP. -7' 27-24 04-Memp. -16' 38-35...SR: East Carolina 9-6)
PENN STATE 23 - Purdue 21--Purdue owns a significant QB edge with Curtis Painter (24 TD passes; just 6 ints.), and return of explosive RB Jaycen Taylor (6.3 ypc) adds another dimension to Boiler attack. Penn State coming off disappointing result against Ohio State, and playing fast, physical Buckeyes has taken it's toll on OSU foes this season (1-6 vs. number the next game).
(06-Penn St. 12-PUR. 0...PS.23-15 PS.50/240 Pu.24/62 PS.14/31/0/182 Pu.22/39/2/178 PS.1 Pu.1)
(06-Psu -3 12-0 05-PSU -15 33-15 04-Purdue -10 20-13...SR: Penn State 7-3-1)
Navy 28 - NOTRE DAME 26--Navy might be tempted to suit up Roger Staubach (who will be at game) in what looks like its best chance to beat ND since "The Dodger" did it in his Heisman year of...1963. Mids' smallish "D" (which allowed 59 vs. FCS Delaware last week) might be just the tonic for sluggish Irish "O" to jerk out of its season-long lurch. But there's lots more competence in Navy option that continues to inhale yardage on ground. TV--NBC
(06-N. Dame 38-NAVY 14...ND.25-19 Na.56/271 ND.37/176 ND.18/25/0/295 Na.4/7/0/43 ND.0 Na.1)
(06-Und -13' 38-14 at Balt. 05-UND -23' 42-21 04-Und -6 27-9 at ER...SR: N. Dame 70-9-1)
BOISE STATE 46 - San Jose State 14--Without a credible infantry diversion or a reliable kicker (SJSU HC Tomey abandoned FG attempts in last game at Fresno after Spartan miss streak reached 9 in a row!), hard to see San Jose keeping pace on blue carpet, where Boise's extended pointspread mark still very impressive (38-14 last 22). Frosh WR Young & RB Avery the newest toys for HC Petersen to utilize in potent Bronco attack.
(06-Boise St. 23-SJS 20...B.20-13 B.44/160 S.27/75 B.14/20/1/181 S.17/23/0/173 B.0 S.0)
(06-Bsu -13' 23-20 05-BSU -30' 38-21 04-Bsu -33 56-49 (OT)...SR: Boise State 7-0)
Utep 38 - RICE 37--Sure, young Rice defense is awful. But how much better is UTEP platoon that has yielded more than 500 yards to each of its last 6 Bowl Subdivision foes? Versatile Owl QB Clement (9 TDP & 2 TDR last 3 weeks) makes cardiac Miners (last 4 games decided by total of 10 points!) go the distance again.
(06-Rice 37-UTEP 31...R.30-17 R.48/238 U.18/73 U.16/34/1/315 R.19/26/0/233 R.1 U.0)
(06-Rice +9 37-31 05-Utep -19' 38-31 04-UTEP -16 35-28 (OT)...SR: EVEN 5-5)
Lsu 20 - ALABAMA 19--In highly-anticipated battle between squads tied for 1st in SEC West, believe confident, combative Bama (last 4 losses by combined 19 pts.) equipped to give loaded LSU 60-minute battle. Tide's effective QB J. P. Wilson (58%; 291 YP vs. Tigers LY) & topflight WRs (hot D. J. Hall 24 catches last two games) able to do business vs. LSU 2ndary that yielded combined 449 YP vs. Kentucky & Auburn. Game has added significance for Bama HC Saban, who recruited 19 players on current Tiger squad in his 4 years as LSU head man.
(06-LSU 28-Ala. 14...A.23-20 L.34/211 A.28/78 A.22/36/1/291 L.18/21/0/207 L.0 A.1)
-(06-LSU -17' 28-14 05-Lsu -3 16-13 (OT) 04-LSU -8 26-10...SR: Alabama 43-22-5)
ARIZONA 24 - Ucla 20--With injuries mounting (RB Bell & WR Breazell the latest casualties) and offense one hit away from turning to a walk-on QB, not convinced UCLA can again reprise the bounce-back form it displayed after previous defeats. Despite erraticism, UA more likely to fire scoring shots, especially with QB Tuitama (510 YP & 5 TDP last week at Washington) looking more comfy at controls of o.c. Sonny Dykes' spread. TV--ABC
(06-UCLA 27-Ariz. 7...17-17 U.22/65 A.26/M13 A.21/42/1/235 U.23/33/0/227 U.0 A.0)
(06-UCLA -12 27-7 05-ARIZ. +9 52-14 04-UCLA -10 37-17...SR: UCLA 19-10-2)
Arizona State 29 - OREGON 27--As we noted in early September, the marriage between Dennis Erickson and ASU might be one made in football heaven. Any doubters of Sun Devil prowess should note how ASU has outscored foes 153-29 after halftime this season. Slowing prolific Oregon "O" a tall order, but Sun Devils possess plenty of defensive speed to cover sideline-to-sideline and limit damage of Ducks' Heisman darkhorse QB Dixon. And we suspect Oregon "D" might be more vulnerable against big, veteran ASU OL, giving QB Carpenter time to pick away at Ducks' smaller DBs.
(06-Ore. 48-ARIZ. ST. 13...O.28-9 O.40/315 A.34/142 O.23/37/0/259 A.6/19/1/33 O.1 A.1)
(06-Ore. +1' 48-13 05-Ore. +10 31-17 04-Asu +2' 28-13...SR: Arizona St. 16-11)
MIAMI-OHIO 21 - Buffalo 20--Winner of this game takes control of MAC East, and expect Buffalo HC Turner Gill to have his improved Bulls ready to rumble. QB Drew Willy (67%) didn't throw an int. in October. Willy is hooking up with Naaman Roosevelt, while RB Starks balances offense. Miami improving on defense, and soph QB Raudabaugh has 763 YP last 3 games, but ascending Buffalo able to even record at 5-5!.
(06-Miami 38-BUF. 31...M.19-16 B.29/104 M.41/93 B.13/24/4/174 M.17/28/1/167 M.2 B.0)
(06-Miami -7' 38-31 05-MIAMI -27' 54-13 04-Miami -20 25-7...SR: Miami-Ohio 9-0)
AIR FORCE 38 - Army 14--Army was able to slip inside of a few hefty imposts against disinterested opposition earlier in campaign, but there's no chance Air Force about to overlook its service academy rival, especially when AF can clinch bowl eligibility. Falcon "O" a lot more dangerous with hybrid WR/RB Hall and sr. QB Carney, and d.c. DeRuyter's blitz packages will slow limited Black Knight "O" to a crawl.
(06-A. Force 43-ARMY 7...Af.19-12 Af.63/267 Ar.27/131 Ar.12/21/4/116 Af.2/5/0/44 Af.1 Ar.2)
(06-Afa -6 43-7 05-Army +11' 27-24 04-Afa -4 31-22...SR: Air Force 27-13-1)
UCF 42 - Marshall 21--Sure, Marshall finally got off the schneid last week, notching its first win of season vs. struggling Rice at Huntington. But now Herd back on road, where they've "Thundered" away their backers' money in 17 of last 22. Star RB K. Smith will run UCF to easy victory at new Bright House Networks Stadium, where Knights, after giving mighty Texas all it could handle in home opener, have won last 3 by 25 ppg.
(06-Ucf 23-MARSH. 22...U.24-20 U.43/275 M.35/230 U.16/26/0/213 M.14/22/1/136 U.0 M.0)
(06-Ucf +3' 23-22 05-UCF +3' 23-13 04-MAR. -26 20-3...SR: Marshall 3-2)
Michigan 31 - MICHIGAN STATE 23--Michigan will be back to full strength offensively with return of QB Henne and RB Hart for this rivalry game, so expect Wolverines to convincingly extend 7-game season win streak. MSU's 2nd-half collapse vs. Iowa indicates Spartans could be in over their heads. MSU's history of poor play down the stretch repeating itself.
(06-MICH. 31-Mich. St. 13...U.20-14 U.42/211 S.26/60 S.20/35/2/252 U.11/17/0/140 U.0 S.0)
(06-MICH. -15' 31-13 05-Mich. +5 34-31 (OT) 04-MICH. -11 45-37 (OT)...SR: Michigan 66-28-5)
OKLAHOMA 38 - Texas A&M 13--A&M having problems vs. quick foes TY, as demonstrated in losses at Miami, Texas Tech, and vs. Kansas. And even though Aggies have hung close (7, 6 & 1) last 3 in this series, will note that 77-0 was the final on this field in 2003. With Sooners well-rested and BCS on their minds, will count on OU defensive speed & NFL-like receiving corps to dominate again. RS frosh QB Bradford more decisive before home crowd.
(06-Okla. 17-TEX. A&M 16...O.16-15 O.45/224 T.40/204 T.8/18/1/63 O.3/12/0/39 O.2 T.0)
(06-Okla. -2' 17-16 05-OKLA. -13 36-30 04-Okla. -12 42-35...SR: Oklahoma 15-10)
OHIO STATE 37 - Wisconsin 10--Ohio State's top-ranked defense figures to be the dominant platoon--again. Wisconsin RB Hill was injured in rout of Indiana, and backup Lance Smith is prohibited from making road trips, so Badgers could be very thin in backfield. Return of WR Hubbard (only 2 recs. in 2 games) hasn't helped balance offense, so look for result similar to when UW visited Penn State (lost 38-7). (04-Wisc. +3' 24-13...SR: OSU 50-17-5)
FRESNO STATE 36 - Utah State 10--Will Hillary Clinton be president the next time USU (14 straight losses) wins a game? Maybe so. And no doubt revenge-minded Fresno will go to school on recent game films that showed Utag rush "D" bulldozed by both Nevada & La Tech. USU's new QB rotation (soph McCormick splitting snaps with sr. L. Jackson) nothing more than desperate roll of dice by increasingly frustrated Aggie HC Guy.
(06-UTAH ST. 13-Fres. St. 12...F.15-11 F.34/164 U.36/147 F.13/27/0/155 U.9/19/0/120 U.0 F.0)
(06-UTAH ST. +26' 13-12 05-FRESNO ST. -33 53-21...SR: Fresno State 11-10-1)
IDAHO 21 - Louisiana Tech 20--Although Idaho just 1-13 SU last 14, still uncomfy laying pts. with La Tech squad that hasn't covered back-to-back away games as chalk since 1999! Vandals elusive 5-8 RS frosh RB D. Jackson (985 YR) figures to break loose after season-low 45 YR vs. Nevada, especially with now-healthy 6-5 QB Enderle able to stretch Bulldog defense (allows 270 ypg passing).
(06-Idaho 24-LA. TECH 14...I.17-15 I.44/144 L.27/74 I.14/27/1/238 L.11/26/4/137 I.2 L.4)
(06-Idaho +3 24-14 05-La. Tech -9 41-38...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*New Mexico 23 - TCU 17--Need plenty of good reasons these days to buck New Mexico's prowess as road dog (16-4 last 20 in role). And TCU not providing many lately, as "O" (21 giveaways already) a lot more mistake-prone than recent editions. That's also impacted pointspread fortunes of Frogs, who've covered just once in 7 tries since opener vs. Baylor. Lobo attack owns necessary balance to deal with TCU defensive pressure.
(06-Tcu 27-N. MEX. 21...N.15-13 T.35/167 N.40/102 N.15/25/1/183 T.6/16/0/25 T.1 N.2)
(06-Tcu -6' 27-21 05-TCU -1' 49-28...SR: TCU 5-3)
Washington 35 - STANFORD 23--We saw more defense in the long-ago Marvin Hagler-Thomas Hearns fight than U-Dub has displayed lately (Huskies allowing 49 ppg last 3!). But despite Stanford's upgrades, not sure Jim Harbaugh's "O" has enough competence to exploit Ty Willingham's stop unit, especially with Cardinal RB corps decimated. UW's RS frosh QB Locker (493 yards total offense vs. Arizona!) more likely to determine outcome.
(06-Stan. 20-WASH. 3...W.12-7 W.28/39 S.35/20 S.11/20/0/206 W.11/44/3/122 S.0 W.0)
(06-Stanford +19 20-3 04-STANFORD -13' 27-13...SR: Washington 39-34-4)
*TOLEDO 27 - Eastern Michigan 26--With pointspread inflated following Toledo's 70-pt. eruption vs. crippled Northern Illinois, must take extra value with scrappy Eastern Michigan, which played its most complete game of year in 19-2 upset vs. Western Michigan. Eagles can now count on two QBs (both soph Schmitt & frosh McMahon), and with 5-7 sr. RB P. Walker (season-high 151 YR last week) in a groove, defensively-permissive Rockets (41 ppg) narrowly escape in "Glass Bowl."
(06-E. MICH. 17-Toledo 13...T.19-17 T.37/175 E.37/133 E.17/27/1/196 T.18/31/0/143 E.0 T.0)
(06-EMU -1 17-13 05-TOLEDO -20' 30-3 04-Toledo -9' 42-32...SR: Toledo 23-11)
*Texas Tech 48 - BAYLOR 20--So much for players-only meetings. TT QB Graham Harrell called one after the team's 41-10 loss at Missouri, then recorded his second straight 4-int. game last week vs. Colorado! But don't look for a repeat performance this week at Waco, where the Red Raiders have won & covered their last 5 trips. The turnover problems of the Bears (16 the last 3 games) are worse than those of TT!
(06-TEX. TECH 55-Bay. 21...T.32-16 T.19/175 B.29/20 T.38/58/1/507 B.16/30/1/197 T.0 B.2)
(06-TECH -17 55-21 05-Tech -12 28-0 04-TECH -31 42-17...SR: EVEN 32-32-1)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 38 - Texas 35--Potent, rested OSU catching Texas at a good time, with QB McCoy (15 TDs, but 13 ints.) battered after last week's relentless blitzes by desperate Nebraska and missing favorite target Limas Sweed. The Cowboy offense both runs & throws better with soph Zac Robinson at the controls. Darting RB Dantrell Savage (124 ypg rushing) a nice fit for OSU spread-option plays, while 6-4, 220 sr. WR A. Bowman owns experience edge over Longhorns' young secondary. UT 1-6 vs. points last 7 as visitor.
(06-TEXAS 36-Ok. St. 10...T.26-13 T.45/164 O.21/80 T.23/29/0/346 O.11/28/2/123 T.2 O.1)
(06-TEXAS -18 36-10 05-Texas -37' 47-28 04-TEXAS -13 56-35...SR: Texas 19-2)
*Missouri 30 - COLORADO 20--After taking a bit of a breather last week vs. Iowa State, look for Missouri (7-1 SU, 6-1 vs. spread) to regain focus and remain on a collision course with rival Kansas in Big XII North. Colorado (wins over Okla., TT) a respected spoiler, especially with QB Hawkins avoiding ints. last week, and Tigers having lost S "Pig" Brown. However, backups for more-mature MU have stepped up all year.
(06-MO. 28-Colo. 13...M.23-18 C.36/183 M.40/100 M.23/37/2/253 C.13/27/0/190 M.0 C.0)
(06-MO. -15 28-13 05-COLO. -12 41-12 04-MO. -7' 17-9...SR: Missouri 37-31-3)
*Wake Forest 24 - VIRGINIA 17--Cavaliers' run of good luck (4 of first 7 victories by less than a FG!) finally ended last week in loss at N.C. State. Resourceful Wake, meanwhile, has quietly won its last 6 games. Make that 7, thanks to Deacons' opportunistic defense & special teams, which have combined to contribute 9 TDs so far TY! (DNP...SR: Virginia 33-12)
*Southern Miss 31 - UAB 10--With perennial contender USM in thick of C-USA East race, suggest "laying it" vs. banged-up, frosh-laden UAB squad that has lost touch early past two weeks (trailed Houston 35-10 & ECU 20-6 by half). Golden Eagles now possess two quality triggermen (Mich. St. transfer Reaves & now-healthier vet Young), so look for potent RB Fletcher (2,025 YR last 1+Ys) to explode vs. Blazers inviting front 7 (5.5 ypc).
(06-S. MISS 25-Uab 20...S.19-12 S.44/212 U.38/82 U.9/18/2/155 S.8/18/1/128 S.3 U.0)
(06-USM -14' 25-20 05-Usm +2' 37-28 04-USM -1 26-21...SR: Southern Miss 7-0)
*PITTSBURGH 32 - Syracuse 13--Although HC Wannstedt has had limited success since taking helm at Pitt, this has been a surprisingly good role, as his Panthers have covered last 5 as DD home chalk. Extra week of prep not enough to cure what ails woeful Syracuse. Big rushing & defensive edges add to up to big win for host.
(06-Pitt 21-SYR. 11...S.18-16 P.35/236 S.33/92 S.20/29/0/225 P.20/24/0/177 P.1 S.3)
(06-Pitt -7 21-11 05-PITT -12' 34-17 04-SYR. -4 38-31 (OT)...SR: Syracuse 30-29-3)
*BOSTON COLLEGE 17 - Florida State 16--Changing of guard in ACC during recent seasons is nowhere more evident than in this matchup. No. 2-ranked BC off to its best start since World War II, while FSU, a previously perennial national championship contender, can't crack top 25. Wouldn't sell proud Seminoles short, however, as their athletic defense is still stifling at times, and QB Weatherford had 339 YP last week. Savvy sr. QB Ryan might need to produce another late rescue to keep BC in title chase.
(06-Bos. Col. 24-FL. ST. 19...F.19-16 B.32/60 F.21/28 F.32/48/2/326 B.16/26/1/262 B.1 F.1)
(06-Boston Col. +6' 24-19 05-Fsu -1' 28-17...SR: Florida State 3-2)
*TULANE 27 - Tulsa 26--Despite showing significant improvement in HC Toledo's first season, Tulane still finding SU wins hard to come by. But not interested in money-burning Tulsa squad that's dropped 6 straight vs. spread. Excluding loss to LSU, Green Wave star sr. RB Forte has run for 200+ yards in 5 straight games!
(06-TULS. 38-Tula. 3...Ts.21-12 Ts.38/191 Tn.32/74 Ts.16/22/0/267 Tn.10/21/0/78 Ts.0 Tn.0)
(06-TULSA -17 38-3 05-Tulsa -15 38-14 at Monroe, LA...SR: Tulsa 2-1)
*SOUTHERN CAL 24 - Oregon State 16--What a difference a few weeks makes, as this one now has more Holiday and Sun Bowl implications than BCS ramifications. But revenge motive or not, don't like the thought of laying significant points with disappointing SC bunch that isn't get much creative play-calling from 1st-year o.c. Sarkisian. Although OSU could be minus top RB Bernard, Troy "D" not generating push from front 4 to fluster pick-prone (but lately more-careful) OSU QB Canfield.
(06-ORE. ST. 33-S. Cal 31...S.23-16 O.35/89 S.27/86 S.24/39/1/406 O.21/32/0/262 O.0 S.3)
(06-OSU +10' 33-31 04-Usc -18 28-20...SR: Southern Cal 57-9-4)
*Illinois 42 - MINNESOTA 24--Minnesota owns the nation's worst defense, ranks 116th in turnover margin, is starting 8 frosh, and has covered only once at home this season. Illini rush attack (5.5 ypc; 8th in nation at 241 ypg), led by jr. Rashard Mendenhall (1113 YR; 14 TDs), will play keepaway from QB Weber & the Gopher spread offense. (04-MINNESOTA -18 45-0...SR: Minnesota 31-26-3)
*SAN DIEGO STATE 24 - Wyoming 23--With Wyo QB shortcomings becoming a distraction (starter Sween benched vs. UNLV, then relieved ineffective replacement Hetrick vs. Rebs) and contributing to recent pointspread downturn (only one cover since opener), even notoriously unreliable SDSU might be a better alternative than Cowboys. Last week's unexpected "bye" due to local wildfires a bonus for Aztecs' many walking wounded.
(06-WYO. 27-S.D. St. 24...W.23-10 W.54/222 S.20/40 S.10/21/1/192 W.15/25/0/97 W.1 S.0)
(06-WYO. -15 27-24 05-SDS -7' 34-21 04-WYO. +3 20-10...SR: Wyoming 15-13)
*CALIFORNIA 38 - Washington State 20--Cal's flash hasn't justified spread premium placed on Bears, who have covered just 13 of last 36 on board, and 3 of last 18 laying double digits. But do we trust lowly Wazzu to replicate last week's circle-the-wagons effort vs. UCLA, especially now that Cougars on road, where they've lost and failed to cover first 4 in '07 allowing 42 or more on each occasion?
(06-Cal. 21-WSU 3...C.19-14 C.40/177 W.19/88 W.21/41/2/262 C.17/31/2/176 C.1 W.0)
(06-Calif. -9 21-3 05-CALIF. -12 42-38...SR: California 38-25-5)
ADDED GAMES
ARKANSAS STATE 38 - Florida Intl. 10--Perhaps early-season meatgrinder has simply taken the starch out of ASU, which has sunk to also-ran status in Sun Belt. But compared to sad-sack FIU bunch that hasn't won a game in nearly 2 years and is scoring fewer ppg than Notre Dame, Indians look like Ohio State. Recent series history suggests blowout in order.
(06-Ark. St. 31-FLA. INTL. 6...A.21-13 A.47/222 F.19/9 F.18/35/3/177 A.10/22/1/108 A.0 F.1)
(06-Asu +7' 31-6 05-ASU -9 66-24...SR: Arkansas State 2-0)
GEORGIA 41 - Troy 13--Sun Belt teams are just 2-6 vs. the number facing the SEC this year, and Troy yielded 59 points at Florida in a spread loss and needed a TD as time expired to cover with a 20-point loss at Arkansas this season. Trojan QB Haugabook (9th in nation in total offense) suffered a hamstring injury in emotional win at Arkansas St. last Saturday. With bowl-bid deciding games against Sun Belt contenders M. Tenn. & Fla. Atl. scheduled Nov. 20 & Dec. 1, can't see HC Blakeney pushing his injured star too much in this "payday" game. After seeing Florida's spread attack, facing the Trojans should be much easier task for Dawg "D", especially if the Sun Belt's best offensive player isn't 100%. (FIRST MEETING)
*TENNESSEE 42 - La.-Lafayette 17--Even though embroiled HC Phil Fulmer is temporarily off the "hot seat" following 27-24 OT win vs. S. Carolina, Dr. Phil would have trouble getting UT players emotionally ready with revenge game vs. Arkansas on tap. Unreliable Vol "D" (31 ppg) will have trouble with ULL's efficient no-huddle option (25 ppg), directed by nifty 6-2 jr. QB Desormeaux. (DNP...SR: Tenn. 1-0)
*Middle Tennessee St. 31 - LA.-MONROE 21--Plenty of positives both ways in recent weeks, but case for red-hot MTSU (5 straight covers) a bit more persuasive. Blue Raiders' creative offensive package effective with either fleet frosh QB Dasher (sprained knee vs. N. Texas) or former starter Craddock, and note how MTSU quelled similar-looking ULM last year at Malone Stadium.
(06-Mts 35-LA.-MN. 21...M.24-15 M.46/215 L.29/102 M.19/24/1/234 L.15/28/0/184 M.3 L.0)
(06-Mts -3' 35-21 05-Ulm +11 34-31 04-MTS -6' 37-24...SR: Middle Tenn. St. 5-2)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4
*HOUSTON 42 - Smu 26--Mustangs (3 of last 4 games decided by 7 points or fewer) not getting blown out. But losses continue to mount for 1-7 SMU, and HC Bennett has been told he won't be back for 2008. Potent, balanced Houston attack has racked up at least 400 yards in every game TY, including a gaudy 1808 over last 3! CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-Houston 37-SMU 27...H.24-20 H.48/357 S.35/44 S.23/36/0/299 H.12/21/0/147 H.1 S.2)
(06-Houston -3' 37-27 05-Smu +12' 29-24...SR: Houston 12-9-1)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
NORTH CAROLINA STATE Plus over Miami-Florida
NEW MEXICO by 6 over Texas Christian
WASHINGTON by 12 over Stanford
GEORGIA by 28 over Troy
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Newsletters 11/1 -11/4
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Confidential Kick-Off!!
The Gold Sheet!!
America’s Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!
CKO Vol. 46 - November 1 - 5, 2007 - No. 10
11 *OHIO STATE over Wisconsin
Late Score Forecast:
*OHIO STATE 40 - Wisconsin 10
Ohio State's dominating 37-17 victory at Penn State is the best indicator yet that there is only one truly scary obstacle in the way of the Buckeyes' run to an undefeated regular season, and that's the finale at Ann Arbor. 6-5 jr. QB Todd Boeckman now has such confidence in his huge OL, and 236-pound RB Chris Wells (996 YR) has become such commanding presence in the backfield, that Boeckman is able to work Jim Tressel's well-designed play-action passes to near perfection. This is not to say UW (19-3 SU the last 1+Ys) is not a worthy opponent. But the Badger RBs & WRs have been hampered by injury much of '07, and P.J. Hill's backup--Lance Smith-Williams--is grounded for road games. Meanwhile, the somewhat disappointing UW "D" has yielded more than 30 points TY to Big Ten foes Michigan State, Illinois, and Penn State. OSU (16-5 vs. the spread in Big Ten last 2+Ys) goes to the whip for the stretch drive.
10 BALL STATE over *Indiana
Late Score Forecast:
BALL STATE 35 - *Indiana 31
Ball State has compiled a remarkable road record, notching a 14-2 spread mark away from home over the last 2+ seasons, including a perfect 4-0 against Big Ten teams. Much of the reason for this streak is heady play of Cardinal QB Nate Davis, who has thrown for 2453 yds. and 21 TDs this season, with only 4 interceptions. His favorite targets are 6-6 TE Darius Hill (44 catches this season; 20 career TDs) & WR Dante Love (130 career catches, 18 TDs). Indiana has dropped three in a row straight-up in quest for 6th win and bowl eligibility. Part of the reason Indiana has struggled is due to injuries. Four offensive line regulars & the starting NT either didn't play vs. Wisconsin or left the game with injuries. Indiana is dangerous with nifty QB Kellen Lewis & 6-7 future NFL WR James Hardy, but the Hoosiers are in for a battle.
10 *ALABAMA over Lsu
Late Score Forecast:
*ALABAMA 23 - Lsu 20
Long-time SEC scouts believe solid pointspread value exists with SEC West contender Bama, considering the jelling Tide played its most complete game of year in resounding 41-17 victory vs. Tennessee. Bama o.c. Major Applewhite expanded the playbook for savvy, efficient QB J.P. Wilson (58%, just 5 ints.), who took full advantage by hitting 32 of 46 for 363 yds. & 4 TDP vs. Vols. And with the coaches adding a few gadget plays during bye week, the balanced Tide attack will do business vs. an LSU stop unit yielding 34 ppg in last 3. Meanwhile, doubt Tiger QB Flynn (only 8 TDP) will find comfort zone, since Saban's confusing blitz packages should prove effective vs.an LSU front that has permitted 19 sacks. Moreover, Bama might own strategical edge since shrewd Saban has personal knowledge of many Tiger players, having recently been the LSU head man for 4 years.
10 ARIZONA STATE over *Oregon
Late Score Forecast:
ARIZONA STATE 30 - *Oregon 26
Dennis Erickson and Mike Bellotti reprise their coaching rivalry from old Beavers vs. Ducks "Civil War" battles when Erickson was at OSU...three jobs ago. But Erickson mostly got the best of those confrontations (covered last 3), and his unbeaten ASU bunch has the ingredients to fluster Bellotti once more. Specifically, an aggressive, speed-based defense that has the sideline-to-sideline "quicks" needed to deal with mobile QB Dixon and Oregon's spread. Meanwhile, Ducks' "D" is the most vulnerable platoon on field, so expect big, veteran Sun Devil OL to provide ample protection for hot QB Carpenter and stable of ASU RBs that doesn't seem to miss injured Ryan Torain (backups Herring & Nance combined 181 YR vs. Cal). Note Sun Devils outscoring foes 153-29 in 2nd half thus far!
10 BALTIMORE over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
BALTIMORE 23 - *Pittsburgh 19
(Monday, November 5)
Last week's "bye" came at a perfect time for Baltimore squad that needed extra time to heal walking wounded. Specifically, catalysts for both Baltimore "O" (QB McNair) and "D" (CB McAlister) are now ready to go. With all hands on deck, Ravens' still-ornery stop unit can bring the sort of heat that flusters Ben Roethlisberger, who had problems dealing with Denver's similar tactics (sacked 4 times with 2 picks) in Pitt's recent loss to Broncos. Moreover, that "bye" week should finally allow Ravens to get their OL (which had started as many as 3 rookies in recent weeks) back in order, which might help Willis McGahee locate some room to run and provide diversion for McNair. And Baltimore certainly not intimidated after winning last 3 (and covering last 4) vs. Steel.
TOTALS: UNDER (37) in the San Francisco-Atlanta game--These two offenses can't get out of their own way lately, as Atlanta has scored 13 ppg last 3 & S.F. 9 ppg last 4....OVER (47) in the Seattle-Cleveland game--Cleveland hasn't gone "under" yet this season & only Tom Brady has thrown more TD passes than Derek Anderson. Seattle's 33 pts. vs. St. Louis & 7-4 "over" mark last 11 away from home help make case.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NORTHWESTERN (-1) vs. Iowa--Northwestern "O" led by QB Bacher very potent. Iowa's 2nd-half offensive "explosion" vs. Mich. St. atypical of what the Hawkeyes have produced this year (11 ppg on the road)...BUFFALO (+7) at Miami-Ohio-Buffalo HC Turner Gill has Bulls believing in themselves and QB Drew Willy is completing 67%...MICHIGAN (-4½) at Michigan State-Wolverine RB Hart & QB Henne were held out vs. Minnesota to be ready for this one. Spartan 2nd-half fade tendencies will be extended...OKLAHOMA STATE (+3) vs. Texas...Longhorn QB McCoy is banged up & OL isn't protecting him. Rested OSU has high-octane attack...WASHINGTON (-3½) at N.Y. Jets-Jets last covered Sept. 16 & unless we're mistaken, Joe Gibbs and the Redskins will be in an ornery mood after the way the Patriots treated them Sunday at Foxborough.
posted by phantom
Oct. 29 2007 7:25pm -
0 likes
Big Dogs
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Here are the big dogs for the week . There are four this week . They are North Carolina state, Vandy , Nebraska , Army
posted by phantom
Oct. 29 2007 7:25pm -
0 likes
marc l
ANGLE OF THE WEEK
GOING DOWN
PLAY AGAINST any undefeated college football conference favorite off an ATS win from Game Nine out versus a .444 > opponent.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 22-6-2
Play Against: Boston College
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2007 3:29pm -
0 likes
marc l
STAT OF THE WEEK
Nebraska is 37-1 SU in its last 38 games against Kansas.
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2007 3:29pm -
0 likes
TOM SCOTT’S ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Posted: 2007-10-29
It seems like there are more and more teams in college football that cannot stop anybody. Bad defenses present good opportunities for the shrewd handicapper if he can look deep enough into the history book to find the right combination of parameters to build a profitable angle. Hey, THAT’S WHAT I DO! And, I did it. We’ll define this "bad defense" as one who has allowed 40 or more points in each of his last two games. To increase his humiliation, we’ll set the last 40-pointer at his home field. To make his recovery harder, we’ll send him on the conference road this week. To insure that we have the better team, we’ll give this defensive no-show a WL% of .333 or less and his opponent a mark of .375 or better. That’s all you need to bring this angle to the table:
PLAY AGAINST any conference road team who allowed 40 or more points in each of its last two games if the last game was at home, his WL% for the year is less than .333 and his opponent has a WL% of .375 or better.
26 Year ATS = 45-18 for 71.6% winners.
This week’s play = STANFORD plus the points over Washington
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2007 3:29pm -
0 likes
Pointwise
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top 3 College Plays Last 7 Weeks: 14-7.
Rated NFL Past 2 Weeks: Won 8-of-10
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
KANSAS over Nebraska RATING: 1
BYU over Colorado State RATING: 1
CENTRAL FLORIDA over Marshall RATING: 2
OHIO STATE over Wisconsin RATING: 3
PENN STATE over Purdue RATING: 4
CLEMSON over Duke RATING: 4
SOUTH FLORIDA over Cincinnati RATING: 5
BOISE STATE over San Jose State RATING: 5
NFL KEY RELEASES
TAMPA BAY over Arizona RATING: 2
HOUSTON over Oakland RATING: 3
SAN DIEGO over Minnesota RATING: 4
CAROLINA over Tennessee RATING: 4
DENVER over Detroit RATING: 5
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2007 3:29pm -
0 likes
marc lawrence
BATTLE OF THE UNBEATENS
Undefeated NFL home dogs, facing an undefeated opponent, are 12-2 ATS since 1980. Play on INDY
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2007 3:30pm -
0 likes
nfl trends
Sunday, November 4th
Week 9 Byes: Chicago, Miami, NY Giants, St. Louis
Washington at NY Jets, 1:00 EST
Washington: 7-2 Under off a loss by 28+ points
NY Jets: 21-6 ATS off a home division loss
Green Bay at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS in road games
Kansas City: 2-8 ATS off BB wins
Arizona at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Arizona: 12-3 Over as a road underdog
Tampa Bay: 6-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less
Carolina at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 8-2 ATS as a road underdog
Tennessee: 11-1 Over off BB wins by 6 points or less
San Francisco at Atlanta, 1:00 EST
San Francisco: 6-1 ATS off BB losses by 10+ points
Atlanta: 8-1 Under as a home favorite
Jacksonville at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 13-4 Under in dome games
New Orleans: 1-8 ATS as a home favorite
Denver at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Denver: 6-0 ATS away off an Under
Detroit: 8-19 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Cincinnati at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
Cincinnati: 1-8 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Buffalo: 8-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
San Diego at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 17-5 ATS off a win by 21+ points
Minnesota: 1-7 ATS vs. non-conference games
Seattle at Cleveland, 4:05 EST
Seattle: 0-8 ATS off a division win by 21+ points
Cleveland: 6-0 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less
New England at Indianapolis, 4:15 EST
New England: 7-1 Over as a favorite
Indianapolis: 8-0 ATS off a road win by 21+ points
Houston at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Houston: 10-2 Over with a line of +3 to -3
Oakland: 3-13 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Dallas at Philadelphia, 8:15 EST NBC
Dallas: 8-2 Over as a road favorite
Philadelphia: 13-3 Over as an underdog
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Monday, November 5th
Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 EST ESPN
Baltimore: 18-5 ATS off a loss as a favorite
Pittsburgh: 9-1 Over at home off a win
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Sunday, November 11th
Week 10 Byes: Houston, New England, NY Jets, Tampa Bay
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2007 3:30pm -
0 likes
NEVER SAY SORRY NICE WORK
posted by takis28
Oct. 30 2007 6:26pm -
0 likes
Power Sweep
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4* Notre Dame 38-24
3* S Florida 34-17
3* Virginia 25-17
2* Ohio St 34-10
2* S Carolina 23-20
2* Clemson 38-17
Underdog Oklahoma St 34-30
4* Wash 23-10
3* Clev 31-27
2* NE 41-30
2* Arizona 21-17
Totals
3* Pats/Colts ov 56 1/2
3* Seattle/Browns ov 47 1/2
3* Texans/Raiders un 41 1/2
2* Broncos/Lions ov 43
2* Panthers/Titans ov 37
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2007 10:11pm -
0 likes
"Takis28":pwmvnd73
NEVER SAY SORRY NICE WORK
I just hate it went i send out losers....
posted by phantom
Oct. 30 2007 10:11pm -
0 likes
ALOHA BRO TAKE A LOOK AT MILW +7.5 TONIGHT LIKE THE PLAY GL KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK
posted by takis28
Oct. 31 2007 1:18pm -
0 likes
JIM HURLEY (NETWORK SPORTS NEWSLETTER)
RUTGERS at CONNECTICUT
Hip, hip, hooray for UConn Huskies crew that proved they're the "real deal" with last weekend's 22-15 home win against South Florida - hey, did you know last weekend's Network Bulletin won a "Preferred Picks" play with that tilt and also kayoed the books with a "Best Bet" winner on Oregon over USC, an "Upset Special" winner with Georgia over Florida and another "Preferred Picks" winner with N.C. State over Virginia ... just thought you'd like to know! Now, the Dawgs try to go 3-and-oh SU (straightup) and ATS (against the spread) on this Big East home stand that also includes 21-17 win against Louisville on Oct. 19th and who are we to stand in their way? It's RB Dixon (career-high 167 yards rushing last week) and a staunch defense that turns the trick here. Connecticut 23, Rutgers 17.
UPSET SPECIAL
CINCINNATI at SOUTH FLORIDA: The wheels have officially fallen off USF Bulls' bandwagon as back-to-back road losses have made HC Leavitt's club a "not-now" team inside the Big East while Cincy Bearcats have been storing up lots of anger ever since that upset loss at Pitts two weeks ago. The 'Cats had last weekend off and so now revved-up defense takes its shots at overworked South Florida QB Grothe while Cincy ground game does the rest.
IOWA at NORTHWESTERN:
You would have thought that the Iowa Hawkeyes won the national championship with all that hoopin' and hollerin' following last week's 34-27 double-overtime win against Michigan State (they don't get many Big 10 wins these days at Iowa) and so maybe momentum carries over here against N'western squad that's surrendered 41, 48 and 35 points in last three league games. We'll check status of 'Eyes RB Young (179 yards and two rushing scores last weekend) before we take the plunge. It's Iowa 33, Northwestern 31.
MARYLAND at NORTH CAROLINA:
You might have noticed where last weekend the UNC Tar Heels didn't force a single turnover in 37-10 loss at Wake Forest and so now visiting Maryland Terrapins "play it safe" and send RBs Lattimore/Ball straight at Carolina defense here in hopes that HC Friedgen's ground game does better than 32 carries for 97 rushing yards (the results in last week's never-close 30-17 home loss versus Clemson). It's Maryland 23, North Carolina 20.
N.C. STATE at MIAMI:
No doubt that it was a good thing that Miami Hurricanes had a week off following 37-29 win at Florida State on Oct. 20th and now HC Shannon's crew gets in the grill of State slinger Evans (fresh off career-best 347-yard passing game in 29-24 home upset of Virginia) and makes him cry "uncle". Miami 27, N.C. State 16.
CLEMSON at DUKE
There's no question that Dookies are much improved squad even after getting toppled 25-6 at Florida State last weekend but HC Roof's guys seemingly don't have the answers (or the man-power) to hang with road-favored Tigers here. Note that Clemson QB Harper comes in with 21 TD passes on the year and RB Davis (129 yards rushing and one TD in last week's win against Maryland) starting to get in swing of things after slowish start but "down side" for HC Bowden's bunch is now it tries to cover back-to-back games as road chalk. It's Clemson 24, Duke 19.
VANDERBILT at FLORIDA
The Gators are slip-sliding right off the college football map these days with three SU losses in last four games and maybe HC Meyer is now seeing the error of his ways by over-utilizing soph QB Tebow earlier this season. The kid's right (non-throwing) shoulder is killing him from taking all those hits on rushing plays. Now, Vandy will make not-so-mighty Gators sweat here providing QB Adams (chest) is a go after coming out of last week's 24-13 non-cover win against Miami (Ohio). Florida 28, Vanderbilt 20.
BEST BET
SOUTH CAROLINA at ARKANSAS: Maybe there's no defending the fact that Arkansas Razorbacks have feasted off lowly Sun Belt Conference this year with wins against Troy, North Texas and Florida International but now this game holds major meaning even if HC Nutt likely to be axed at year's end. The Hogs turned RB McFadden loose last week inside FIU's 10-yard line and one-time Heisman Trophy hopeful scored four short-distance TDs and more of same here against down-in-the-dumps South Carolina club that thought it beat Tennessee last week till Vols got a second chance at FG.
KANSAS STATE at IOWA STATE: All you need to know here is last week Mizzou slinger Daniel completed his first 11 passes in 42-28 non-cover win against ISU Cyclones and now dreamy K-State pass/catch combo of QB Freeman-to-WR Nelson figures to have fun, fun, fun in this Big 12 tilt. P.S., Freeman (22-of-33 for 247 yards) threw three TDs on first three possessions of second half last week while Nelson (eight catches for 105 yards) was having another glitzy day that included 92-yard punt return for a score in route over lowly Baylor Bears. Here, it's Kansas State 35, Iowa State 20.
NEBRASKA at KANSAS
Okay, so we believe, we believe! Kansas Jayhawks now 8-and-oh SU and 7-0 versus the vig after RB McAnderson cranked out career-high 183 rushing yards in 19-11 win at Texas A&M. You don't really think the 'Huskers will play their "A game" here following tough-to-stomach loss in Austin now, do you? Kansas 31, Nebraska 16.
PURDUE at PENN STATE
If you want a loser's lament from last week's 37-17 Penn State loss to Ohio State, then it's this ... don't trust Lions QB Morelli (111 yards passing versus the Buckeyes) with your last dime! And that might be true with Penn State defense too that - save for tackle machine LB Connor (18 stops and one INT) - didn't exactly bone up against big/strong Ohio State O-line.
NAVY at NOTRE DAME
Let's see ... ND Fighting Irish can't score (averaging just 10 points per game) and Navy Midshipmen can't stop a soul (see 59-52 loss to Delaware last Saturday). This should be fun!
LSU at ALABAMA
This one's been anticipated for a long, long time as former LSU boss-man Saban now takes a crack at here-and-now elite Bayou Bengals with his 'Bama bunch that played best game of the year with 41-17 triumph over Tennessee right before last week's bye (note LSU was idle last weekend, too). Get this SEC thriller and lots more College Football Winners on Game Day either online at http://www.JimHurley.com [jimhurley.com]">www.JimHurley.com or at out toll-free # of 1-800-323-4453 after 9:30 a.m. ET.
UCLA at ARIZONA
Finally, the Uclans lost a Pac-10 game as 27-7 setback at Washington State last weekend was a heavy dose of reality but it's time to say a kind word about 'Zona QB Tuitama who threw for a school-record 510 yards in last weekend's thrilling 48-41 come-from-behind win at Washington. Now, expect this one to be a real doozy even if Arizona doesn't score as many fourth-quarter points (see 22-6 final frame against UW). It's UCLA 30, Arizona 28.
MARQUEE MATCHUPS
ARIZONA STATE at OREGON
Here's a quickie pointspread note to pass your way regarding these Pac-10 powers: The ASU Sun Devils and Oregon Ducks enter this game with a combined spread mark of 13-3 (that's a .812 winning rate) and that's some hot stuff! The visitors are fresh off impressive 31-20 win against Cal in which the Bears didn't score in their last eight possessions - no wonder Arizona State HC Erickson was jumping up and down at the end of that clash - while OU Ducks overcoming series of injuries to find ways to win as DB Harper snagged two INTs last week en route to 24-17 triumph over USC that also starred Heisman hopeful QB Dixon (see 157 yards passing and another 76 yards rushing).
ARMY at AIR FORCE
In case you've lost track, the AF Fly Boys now have covered their last four in a row and QB Carney quite capable of taking to the air at times to batter an opponent. Even last week's bye doesn't help Army gang that's lost three in a row to Mr. Vig. It's Air Force 35, Army 18.
MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE
Maybe it doesn't really matter who coaches the M-State Spartans as they roll over and play dead every year when the leaves change colors - last Saturday's aforementioned twin-OT loss to Iowa marked fourth setback in last five games for "Sparty" and not about to trust 'em here with belief that both QB Henne and TB Hart will be back in the saddle for red-hot Wolverines. Now, maize-and-blue WR Manningham (five catches for 162 yards and one score in last week's 34-10 win/cover against Little Brown Jug rival Minnesota) is stat-sheet stuffer deluxe here again.
TEXAS A&M at OKLAHOMA
The Boomer Sooners are lurking right there in the hunt for the national championship and last week's bye allowed HC Stoops' crew a chance to catch its breath after 7-1 SU start that's included four consecutive spread wins followed by four consecutive spread losses. Oklahoma QB Bradford needs to be wary of those blitzes but he'll figure things out. Oklahoma 31, Texas A&M 22.
PREFERRED PICKS
WISCONSIN at OHIO STATE
It's human nature for college teams to puff out their chests after "signature wins" and so expect the OSU Buckeyes to be feeling frisky all this week after 20-point triumph in Happy Valley but this could be real danger zone spot for HC Tressel's team. Consider that visiting Wisky Badgers may or may not have RB Hill here (lower leg injury after 12-carry, 57 yards game in 33-3 win against Indiana last Saturday in Madison) and so that could give 'Eyes even more of a sense of security along with factoid that Badgers are 0-and-3 spreadwise away in '07 season. Still, QB Boeckman (253 yards passing with three TDs versus the Nittanies) should not count on having all day to throw here. This one's closer than "they" think!
WASHINGTON at STANFORD
Spread update says UW Huskies now have failed to cover five of last six games ... enjoy your visit back to "The Farm", Mr. Willingham. Stanford 34, Washington 31.
TEXAS TECH at BAYLOR
The Bears committed seven turnovers in 51-13 loss to K-State last week while T-Tech hurler Harrell aired four INTs in humbling 31-26 loss to two-TD road dog Colorado. Your move! Texas Tech 38, Baylor 22.
TEXAS at OKLAHOMA STATE
If you've been loading up on pro-Longhorns plays this year, then you already know HC Brown's bunch is sub-par 4-5 versus the vig and often highly overpriced (see 28-25 non-cover win against 20½-point pup Nebraska last weekend). Maybe Texas RB Charles - fresh off career-best 290-yard rushing performance against the 'Huskers - can shine here but Okie State can be a real pest and worth the take here plus the points. Texas 32, Oklahoma State 30.
MISSOURI at COLORADO
Now that ESPN was able to show us the highlights of yakkity-yak Mrs. Hawkins (wife of HC Dan and mom of QB Cody), can we please stop "miking" everyone at a football game? Let's see if Mrs. H is still screaming after Mizzou Tigers roll into town with spiffy 6-1 spread log! Memo to the road folks: You may want to have the ball for more than 21:38 as was case last week in two-TD win against lousy Iowa State squad.
WAKE FOREST at VIRGINIA
Check it out ... the Virginia Cavaliers played in four consecutive ultra-tight affairs in the month of October and gotta believe that HC Groh's club may be close to running on "E" here. Virginia's 29-24 loss in Raleigh last weekend showed Wahoos have major weaknesses in trying to stop the forward pass and Wake's QB Skinner-to-Moore combo should rattle home boys here. Throw in fact that Demon Deacons can score other ways too (see 98-yard KO return for a TD and an INT-for-TD in last Saturday's walkover win versus North Carolina) and so this makes it seven SU wins in a row for the Grobes. Wake Forest 24, Virginia 15.
SYRACUSE at PITTSBURGH
No doubt you won't see us recommending pro-'Cuse plays all that often but here's a decent spot to gobble up all those points as Orange had last weekend off to prep while Pittsburghers were 24-17 loss-but-cover dudes at Louisville where goal-line lost fumble late was a killer (we thought HC Wannstedt was gonna fall out of the coaching booth upstairs). Pittsburgh 26, Syracuse 21.
FLORIDA STATE at BOSTON COLLEGE
Not quite sure that FSU Seminoles can beat BC here with "Chinese water torture" tactics (see four FGs last weekend by PK Cismesia in 25-6 win against Duke) but overall the game plan is to keep QB Ryan in relative check for a full 60 minutes after he torched Virginia Tech with a pair of scoring strikes in game's final 2:11 last Thursday night.
OREGON STATE at USC
There was major pain etched on the face of Trojans' HC Carroll following last week's loss in Eugene but what's a guy to do? Backup QB Sanchez (277 yards passing with two TDs and two picks) had to go over injured Booty and Southern Cal just didn't have the right stuff to get it done late. Maybe suddenly-hot O-State Beavers (three straight wins/covers) are walking into a steamy cauldron here but we can't be totally sure. It's USC 34, Oregon State 22.
ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA
The magic formula for the Illini is simple ... get ram-tough RB Mendenhall (28 carries for 189 rushing yards and two TDs last week in 28-17 non-cover win against Ball State) the ball early and often against hapless Gophers. Got it, Zooker? Illinois 31, Minnesota 20.
WASHINGTON STATE at CALIFORNIA
Just wanna know if Cal coach Tedford is still a "hot commodity" for the pros ... don't think so! Still, this is not to suggest grabbing up Wazzu plus all the points as even with last week's win against UCLA the fact is Coogs have allowed 42-or-more points on four different occasions this year. Pass! California 38, Washington State
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2007 2:44pm -
0 likes
Thursday, November 1st
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 7:45 EST ESPN
Virginia Tech: 10-2 ATS in road games
Georgia Tech: 2-11 ATS off an ATS win
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Friday, November 2nd
Temple at Ohio U, 7:00 EST
Temple: 6-1 ATS as an underdog
Ohio U: 6-1 Under off a road win
Akron at Bowling Green, 7:30 EST ESPNU
Akron: 7-1 Under off BB ATS losses
Bowling Green: 0-7 ATS in home games
Nevada at New Mexico State, 8:00 EST ESPN2
Nevada: 8-1 ATS off a home game
New Mexico State: 6-17 ATS as an underdog
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Saturday, November 3rd
Ball State at Indiana, 12:00 EST
Ball State: 10-1 ATS in road games
Indiana: 9-21 ATS off 3+ conference losses
Rutgers at Connecticut, 12:00 EST
Rutgers: 6-1 Under off a home loss
Connecticut: 8-0 ATS at home off a conference game
Cincinnati at South Florida, 12:00 EST
Cincinnati: 1-10 ATS away after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
South Florida: 8-0 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Iowa at Northwestern, 12:00 EST
Iowa: 1-9 ATS off a home game
Northwestern: 19-8 ATS after committing 4+ turnovers
Maryland at North Carolina, 12:00 EST
Maryland: 21-7 ATS off BB conference losses
North Carolina: 18-33 ATS as a home favorite
NC State at Miami FL, 12:00 EST
NC State: 7-1 Under in November
Miami FL: 7-17 ATS as a favorite
Clemson at Duke, 12:00 EST
Clemson: 10-22 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Duke: 6-1 ATS at home vs. Clemson
Vanderbilt at Florida, 12:30 EST
Vanderbilt: 8-1 ATS as a road underdog
Florida: 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
South Carolina at Arkansas, 2:00 EST
South Carolina: 10-2 ATS in road games
Arkansas: 7-1 ATS after scoring 37+ points
Colorado State at BYU, 2:00 EST
Colorado State: 1-8 ATS off a conference loss
BYU: 9-2 Over off a home win
Kansas State at Iowa State, 2:00 EST
Kansas State: 28-13 ATS off a home win by 28+ points
Iowa State: 11-2 Under after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Nebraska at Kansas, 2:00 EST
Nebraska: 1-5 ATS playing on artificial turf
Kansas: 6-0 ATS as a favorite
East Carolina at Memphis, 2:00 EST
East Carolina: 13-3 ATS in road games
Memphis: 2-12 ATS at home off a conference win
Purdue at Penn State, 2:30 EST
Purdue: 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Penn State: 9-0 ATS at home off ATS losses in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
Navy at Notre Dame, 2:30 EST
Navy: 14-1 ATS away after forcing 0 turnovers
Notre Dame: 0-7 ATS at home vs. Navy
San Jose State at Boise State, 3:00 EST
San Jose State: 18-2 Under vs. conference opponents
Boise State: 28-9 ATS off 3+ conference games
UTEP at Rice, 3:00 EST
UTEP: 1-6 ATS in November
Rice: 27-10 ATS as a home underdog
LSU at Alabama, 3:30 EST
LSU: 15-5 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Alabama: 4-14 ATS in home games
UCLA at Arizona, 3:30 EST
UCLA: 9-1 ATS off a loss
Arizona: 2-10 ATS at home off a win as an underdog
Arizona State at Oregon, 3:30 EST
Arizona State: 8-0 Under off a conference win by 10+ points
Oregon: 6-1 ATS as a favorite
Buffalo at Miami OH, 3:30 EST
Buffalo: 5-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Miami OH: 5-1 Over off BB Unders
Army at Air Force, 3:30 EST
Army: 7-21 ATS off a bye week
Air Force: 6-1 Over off a loss by 6 points or less
Marshall at Central Florida, 3:30 EST
Marshall: 2-9 ATS in road games
Central Florida: 6-1 Over off BB wins
Michigan at Michigan State, 3:30 EST
Michigan: 10-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
Michigan State: 0-7 ATS off a conference road loss
Texas A&M at Oklahoma, 3:30 EST
Texas A&M: 8-21 ATS as a road underdog
Oklahoma: 9-2 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Wisconsin at Ohio State, 3:30 EST
Wisconsin: 5-1 Under in November
Ohio State: 16-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Utah State at Fresno State, 5:00 EST
Utah State: 1-10 ATS after allowing 275+ rushing yards
Fresno State: 10-3 Under off BB conference games
Louisiana Tech at Idaho, 5:00 EST
Louisiana Tech: 2-9 ATS off a road game
Idaho: 6-1 Under off a conference road loss
New Mexico at TCU, 5:30 EST
New Mexico: 8-1 ATS away off a conference game
TCU: 7-0 Under off a loss as a favorite
Washington at Stanford, 6:30 EST
Washington: 0-7 ATS off a conference loss by 7 points or less
Stanford: 16-5 Under after scoring 9 points or less
Eastern Michigan at Toledo, 7:00 EST
Eastern Michigan: 17-5 Under playing on artificial turf
Toledo: 9-1 ATS at home off a win by 21+ points
Texas Tech at Baylor, 7:00 EST
Texas Tech: 16-2 ATS off a home loss
Baylor: 1-9 ATS off BB conference games
Texas at Oklahoma State, 7:00 EST
Texas: 0-6 ATS after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
Oklahoma State: 13-4 ATS at home after allowing 37+ points
Missouri at Colorado, 7:00 EST
Missouri: 8-2 Under as a road favorite
Colorado: 0-7 ATS off a road game
Wake Forest at Virginia, 7:00 EST
Wake Forest: 0-7 ATS off a conference win by 21+ points
Virginia: 6-0 ATS at home off BB conference games
Southern Miss at UAB, 7:00 EST
Southern Miss: 19-6 ATS off a loss by 17+ points
UAB: 12-2 Under after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Syracuse at Pittsburgh, 7:00 EST
Syracuse: 14-28 ATS as a road underdog
Pittsburgh: 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Florida State at Boston College, 7:30 EST
Florida State: 3-15 ATS away off 3+ conference games
Boston College: 7-1 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Tulsa at Tulane, 7:30 EST
Tulsa: 7-2 Under off a home conference win
Tulane: 1-11 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less
Oregon State at USC, 8:00 EST
Oregon State: 0-6 ATS off a win by 17+ points
USC: 6-1 Under as a favorite
Illinois at Minnesota, 8:00 EST
Illinois: 6-16 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Minnesota: 11-3 Over in home games
Wyoming at San Diego State, 9:00 EST
Wyoming: 2-11 ATS off BB conference games
San Diego State: 8-2 ATS off a conference loss
Washington State at California, 10:00 EST
Washington State: 8-1 ATS off a win as a home underdog
California: 3-11 ATS off 3+ conference games
Added Games:
Florida International at Arkansas State, 3:00 EST
Florida Int: 1-8 ATS off 5+ losses
Arkansas State: 24-11 ATS off BB losses
Troy at Georgia, 3:30 EST
Troy: 1-9 ATS away off BB ATS wins
Georgia: 16-4 Under after scoring 42+ points
Louisiana Lafayette at Tennessee, 4:00 EST
LA Lafayette: 6-18 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
Tennessee: 14-4 ATS at home off a home conference win
Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana Monroe, 7:00 EST
Mid Tenn State: 8-2 ATS off 3+ ATS wins
LA Monroe: 1-9 ATS off a win by 6 points or less
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Sunday, November 4th
SMU at Houston, 8:00 EST ESPN
SMU: 1-9 ATS away off a loss by 6 points or less
Houston: 6-0 ATS at home off a conference game
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2007 2:44pm -
0 likes
Power Plays Newsletter
4* South Florida
4* Maryland
4* NC State
4* Clemson
4* Vanderbilt
4* Penn State
4* Notre Dame
4* Alabama
4* Ohio State
4* Oklahoma State
4* Pittsburgh
4* Tulane
4* USC
4* San Diego State
NFL: One 4* on the Seahawks / Browns OVER
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2007 9:34pm -
0 likes
SportsReporter:
NFL
Best Bet: Cincinnati
Best Bet: San Diego
Best Bet: New England
Best Bet Total: New England / Indy OVER 57
Recommended: Dallas,
NCAA:
Best Bet: Michigan
Best Bet: FSU
Best Bet: California
Best Bet: Troy
Recommended: Miami-Ohio, Ohio State, Tulane,
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2007 9:35pm -
0 likes
interesting info for the big game
Power Rankings: No. 1 will be decided Nov. 4
By Pete Prisco
CBSSports Senior Writer
Tell Pete your opinion!
Updated Oct. 30
We have a first here.
Since doing the CBSSports Power Rankings, I've always had a team in the No. 1 spot and one in the No. 2 position, never co-No.1s.
This week, we have a tie.
Tom Brady and Randy Moss: It's been all grins so far in New England. (US Presswire)
It has to be that way. With the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts set to play the Game of the Year-Decade-Millennium on Sunday at the RCA Dome, how can one team be in the top spot and the other in the second spot?
They are both undefeated. They are both winning big. And they are both quarterbacked by one of the two best in the league.
So in honor of this week's game, it's a tie.
Go ahead, chowder-heads. Let it fly. Rip. I know it's coming. How can that Patriots-bashing, Peyton Manning-loving Prisco do it again?
Why? I believe they're equals.
The Patriots have been in the top spot of the rankings the past three weeks, and they are playing at an amazing level, but there are reasons the teams should be tied. Here are three:
• The Colts have played a tougher schedule. Their seven opponents have a combined 27-24 record. The Patriots' eight opponents have a combined 24-34 record. The Colts have won two tough road games, at Jacksonville and at Tennessee, while the Patriots' lone impressive road victory was against the Dallas Cowboys.
• The Colts, according to the scoring stats, have a better defense. The Colts are giving up 14.6 points per game, second best in the league, while the Patriots are giving up 15.9 points per game. From a yardage standpoint, the Patriots have an edge, allowing 268.5 yards per game compared to 272.9 for the Colts.
• The Patriots' offense is putting up huge numbers, leading the league in scoring at 41.4 points a game, but four of their games have come against the bottom four defensive teams in the league. The Jets (29th), Bills (30th), Bengals (31st) and Browns (32nd) all fell victim to the New England offense. Those games with the Patriots have something to do with why they're down so low, but they have also struggled against other offenses. The Dolphins, another Patriots victim, are ranked 24th in total defense. New England has also faced just one top 10 defense, the Cowboys at No. 6.
By contrast, the Colts offense, which is averaging 32 points per game, has faced just two defenses ranked lower than 20 -- the Carolina Panthers (21st) and Denver Broncos (25). They have faced two top 10 defenses, the fifth-ranked Tennessee Titans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who come in at No. 8.
Yes, the Patriots have come out and made everyone stand up and take notice with that pleasant-to-the-eyes passing offense. It is a joy to watch. But the Colts can score too and they have played a tougher schedule and have a slightly better defense. So I say they're even. For that reason I'm putting them both in the top spot here in the CBSSports.com Power Rankings this week.
We have co-No. 1s. I can hear the screaming all the way from New England now down to my home in Florida.
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2007 9:35pm -
0 likes
Wednesday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13............
If you don’t have at least a .500 record, you can’t get ranked.
13) Lions—4-0 if they win turnover battle, 0-2 if they lose it, 1-0 when it was even. Looking good for a playoff spot.
12) Redskins—Beat Lions 34-3, lost to Patriots 52-7; does that mean Patriots would beat Lions by 76? (No it doesn’t, but it does mean AFC is still lot better than NFC).
11) Ravens—How come Billick’s (supposed offensive guru) offense, Marvin Lewis’ (supposed defensive guru) defense both stink?
10) Seahawks—You watch them play, their body language is very negative; they’re lucky Arizona hasn’t learned how to finish games yet.
9) Packers— Favre added another chapter to his legendary career late Monday night. He is something to watch.
Titans—Not stat team; they just win; that’s a compliment. 7) Cowboys— Attention baseball owners; Jerry Jones bought Cowboys for $150M in ’89; they’re worth $1.3B now, and that’s in a league with a salary cap.
6) Jaguars—Get most out of their players, but they really need Garrard to get healthy.
5) Steelers—Its hard to win seven years in row on home field of a division rival, but Pittsburgh is 7-0 in last seven visits to Cincinnati.
4) Giants—Discounting dismal performance in London; they won, field was a mess, distractions were everywhere. I’d take them against Dallas on neutral field.
3) Chargers—Looked hungry, angry vs Houston. A team to avoid in January. No one wants Norv fired now.
2) New England—Closest game they’ve had was 34-17 vs Cleveland. Midseason Super Bowl is Sunday.
1) Colts—Defending champs are tops on this list until they lose. They're a 5-point home dog Sunday. Interesting.
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2007 9:36pm -
0 likes
NCAAF
Long Sheet
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Thursday, November 1
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VIRGINIA TECH (6 - 2) at GEORGIA TECH (5 - 3) - 11/1/2007, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA TECH is 1-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA TECH is 1-1 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, November 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEMPLE (3 - 5) at OHIO U (4 - 5) - 11/2/2007, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
AKRON (3 - 5) at BOWLING GREEN (4 - 4) - 11/2/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AKRON is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 1-1 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
AKRON s 2-0 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEVADA (4 - 4) at NEW MEXICO ST (4 - 5) - 11/2/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEVADA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEVADA is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, November 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALL ST (5 - 4) at INDIANA (5 - 4) - 11/3/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
BALL ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 season.
BALL ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
INDIANA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 1-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RUTGERS (5 - 3) at CONNECTICUT (7 - 1) - 11/3/2007, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 2-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
RUTGERS is 2-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINCINNATI (6 - 2) at S FLORIDA (6 - 2) - 11/3/2007, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IOWA (4 - 5) at NORTHWESTERN (5 - 4) - 11/3/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NORTHWESTERN is 2-0 against the spread versus IOWA over the last 3 seasons
NORTHWESTERN is 2-0 straight up against IOWA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARYLAND (4 - 4) at N CAROLINA (2 - 6) - 11/3/2007, 3:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARYLAND is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MARYLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
MARYLAND is 1-0 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NC STATE (3 - 5) at MIAMI (5 - 3) - 11/3/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CLEMSON (6 - 2) at DUKE (1 - 7) - 11/3/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
DUKE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEMSON is 1-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 1-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VANDERBILT (5 - 3) at FLORIDA (5 - 3) - 11/3/2007, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
VANDERBILT is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------
S CAROLINA (6 - 3) at ARKANSAS (5 - 3) - 11/3/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS is 1-1 against the spread versus S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS is 1-1 straight up against S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO ST (1 - 7) at BYU (5 - 2) - 11/3/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
BYU is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER TE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KANSAS ST (5 - 3) at IOWA ST (1 -
- 11/3/2007, 12:30 PM Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 78-53 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
IOWA ST is 1-1 straight up against KANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEBRASKA (4 - 5) at KANSAS (8 - 0) - 11/3/2007, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEBRASKA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
KANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
KANSAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
KANSAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
KANSAS is 53-77 ATS (-31.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
KANSAS is 43-74 ATS (-38.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
KANSAS is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
KASAS is 2-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 1-1 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E CAROLINA (5 - 4) at MEMPHIS (4 - 4) - 11/3/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
E CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 1-1 straight up against E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PURDUE (7 - 2) at PENN ST (6 - 3) - 11/3/2007, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PURDUE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
PURDUE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 2-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NAVY (4 - 4) at NOTRE DAME (1 - 7) - 11/3/2007, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 95-65 ATS (+23.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 95-65 ATS (+23.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 62-38 ATS (+20.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 48-19 ATS (+27.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 48-19 ATS (+27.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 60-37 ATS (+19.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 46-19 ATS (+25.1 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
NAVY is 42-18 ATS (+22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NAVY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in wees 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-1 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 2-0 straight up against NAVY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN JOSE ST (3 - 5) at BOISE ST (7 - 1) - 11/3/2007, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 68-41 ATS (+22.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 68-41 ATS (+22.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 38-16 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 38-16 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 44-23 ATS (+18.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 46-18 ATS (+26.2 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
BOISE ST is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 41-17 ATS (+22.3 Units) off a win against aconference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 2-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTEP (4 - 4) at RICE (1 - 7) - 11/3/2007, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
RICE is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
RICE is 2-0 against the spread versus UTEP over the last 3 seasons
RICE is 1-1 straight up against UTEP over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LSU (7 - 1) at ALABAMA (6 - 2) - 11/3/2007, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
ALABAMA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ALABAMA is 1-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 2-0 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL overthe last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UCLA (5 - 3) at ARIZONA (3 - 6) - 11/3/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 30-56 ATS (-31.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 30-56 ATS (-31.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ARIZONA is 49-75 ATS (-33.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ARIZONA is 30-56 ATS (-31.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against UCLA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA ST (8 - 0) at OREGON (7 - 1) - 11/3/2007, 6:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
OREGON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
OREGON is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
OREGON is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BUFFALO (4 - 5) at MIAMI OHIO (4 - 5) - 11/3/2007, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARMY (3 - 5) at AIR FORCE (6 - 3) - 11/3/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 14-36 ATS (-25.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
AIR FORCE is 1-1 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 1-1 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MARSHALL (1 - 7) at UCF (5 - 3) - 11/3/2007, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 2-0 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 2-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MICHIGAN (7 - 2) at MICHIGAN ST (5 - 4) - 11/3/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasonsnbsp;
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS A&M (6 - 3) at OKLAHOMA (7 - 1) - 11/3/2007, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS A&M is 2-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WISCONSIN (7 - 2) at OHIO ST (9 - 0) - 11/3/2007, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in ths series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTAH ST (0 -
at FRESNO ST (5 - 3) - 11/3/2007, 5:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH ST is 2-0 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 1-1 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOUISIANA TECH (3 - 5) at IDAHO (1 -
- 11/3/2007, 5:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
IDAHO is 2-0 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
IDAHO is 1-1 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW MEXICO (6 - 2) at TCU (4 - 4) - 11/3/2007, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
NEW MEXICO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
NEW MEXICO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON (2 - 6) at STANFORD (3 - 5) - 11/3/2007, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 45-71 ATS (-33.1 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
STANFORD is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E MICHIGAN (3 - 6) at TOLEDO (4 - 5) - 11/3/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
TOLEDO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
TOLEDO is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 1-1 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO is 1-1 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS TECH (6 - 3) at BAYLOR (3 - 6) - 11/3/2007, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 71-47 ATS (+19.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
BAYLOR is 48-73 ATS (-32.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BAYLOR is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BAYLOR is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
BAYLOR is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
BAYLOR is 26-48 ATS (-26.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BAYLOR is 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) in weeks 10 throug 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS TECH is 2-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS (7 - 2) at OKLAHOMA ST (5 - 3) - 11/3/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
TEXAS is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS is 2-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MISSOURI (7 - 1) at COLORADO (5 - 4) - 11/3/2007, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 1-1 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WAKE FOREST (6 - 2) at VIRGINIA (7 - 2) - 11/3/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
WAKE FOREST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOUTHERN MISS (4 - 4) at UAB (2 - 6) - 11/3/2007, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UAB is 1-1 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
SOUTHERN MISS is 2-0 straight up against UAB over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SYRACUSE (2 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 5) - 11/3/2007, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------
FLORIDA ST (5 - 3) at BOSTON COLLEGE (8 - 0) - 11/3/2007, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-1 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-1 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TULSA (5 - 3) at TULANE (2 - 6) - 11/3/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 48-73 ATS (-32.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
TULANE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 2-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
TULSA is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OREGON ST (5 - 3) at USC (6 - 2) - 11/3/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
OREGON ST is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 1-0 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST is 1-0 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ILLINOIS (6 - 3) at MINNESOTA (1 -
- 11/3/2007, 8:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 45-74 ATS (-36.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WYOMING (5 - 3) at SAN DIEGO ST (2 - 5) - 11/3/2007, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
WYOMING is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WASHINGTON ST (3 - 5) at CALIFORNIA (5 - 3) - 11/3/2007, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
CALIFORNIA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALIFORNIA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
CALIFORNIA is 2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLA INTERNATIONAL (0 -
at ARKANSAS ST (3 - 5) - 11/3/2007, 3:00 PM Top Trends for this game.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROY (6 - 2) at GEORGIA (6 - 2) - 11/3/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA LAFAYETTE (1 - 7) at TENNESSEE (5 - 3) - 11/3/2007, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIDDLE TENN ST (4 - 5) at LA MONROE (3 - 5) - 11/3/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 1-1 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 1-1 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, November 4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SMU (1 - 7) at HOUSTON (5 - 3) - 11/4/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SMU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus SMU over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2007 9:37pm -
0 likes
NCAAF
Short Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, November 1st
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 7:45 ET ESPN
Virginia Tech: 10-2 ATS in road games
Georgia Tech: 2-11 ATS off an ATS win
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, November 2nd
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Temple at Ohio U, 7:00 ET
Temple: 6-1 ATS as an underdog
Ohio U: 6-1 Under off a road win
Akron at Bowling Green, 7:30 ET ESPNU
Akron: 7-1 Under off BB ATS losses
Bowling Green: 0-7 ATS in home games
Nevada at New Mexico State, 8:00 ET ESPN2
Nevada: 8-1 ATS off a home game
New Mexico State: 6-17 ATS as an underdog
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, November 3rd
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ball State at Indiana, 12:00 ET
Ball State: 10-1 ATS in road games
Indiana: 9-21 ATS off 3+ conference losses
Rutgers at Connecticut, 12:00 ET
Rutgers: 6-1 Under off a home loss
Connecticut: 8-0 ATS at home off a conference game
Cincinnati at South Florida, 12:00 ET
Cincinnati: 1-10 ATS away after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
South Florida: 8-0 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Iowa at Northwestern, 12:00 ET
Iowa: 1-9 ATS off a home game
Northwestern: 19-8 ATS after committing 4+ turnovers
Maryland at North Carolina, 12:00 ET
Maryland: 21-7 ATS off BB conference losses
North Carolina: 18-33 ATS as a home favorite
NC State at Miami FL, 12:00 ET
NC State: 7-1 Under in November
Miami FL: 7-17 ATS as a favorite
Clemson at Duke, 12:00 ET
Clemson: 10-22 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Duke: 6-1 ATS at home vs. Clemson
Vanderbilt at Florida, 12:30 ET
Vanderbilt: 8-1 ATS as a road underdog
Florida: 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
South Carolina at Arkansas, 2:00 ET
South Carolina: 10-2 ATS in road games
Arkansas: 7-1 ATS after scoring 37+ points
Colorado State at BYU, 2:00 EST
Colorado State: 1-8 ATS off a conference loss
BYU: 9-2 Over off a home win
Kansas State at Iowa State, 2:00 ET
Kansas State: 28-13 ATS off a home win by 28+ points
Iowa State: 11-2 Under after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Nebraska at Kansas, 2:00 ET
Nebraska: 1-5 ATS playing on artificial turf
Kansas: 6-0 ATS as a favorite
East Carolina at Memphis, 2:00 ET
East Carolina: 13-3 ATS in road games
Memphis: 2-12 ATS at home off a conference win
Purdue at Penn State, 2:30 ET
Purdue: 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Penn State: 9-0 ATS at home off ATS losses in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
Navy at Notre Dame, 2:30 ET
Navy: 14-1 ATS away after forcing 0 turnovers
Notre Dame: 0-7 ATS at home vs. Navy
San Jose State at Boise State, 3:00 ET
San Jose State: 18-2 Under vs. conference opponents
Boise State: 28-9 ATS off 3+ conference games
UTEP at Rice, 3:00 ET
UTEP: 1-6 ATS in November
Rice: 27-10 ATS as a home underdog
LSU at Alabama, 3:30 ET
LSU: 15-5 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Alabama: 4-14 ATS in home games
UCLA at Arizona, 3:30 ET
UCLA: 9-1 ATS off a loss
Arizona: 2-10 ATS at home off a win as an underdog
Arizona State at Oregon, 3:30 ET
Arizona State: 8-0 Under off a conference win by 10+ points
Oregon: 6-1 ATS as a favorite
Buffalo at Miami OH, 3:30 ET
Buffalo: 5-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Miami OH: 5-1 Over off BB Unders
Army at Air Force, 3:30 ET
Army: 7-21 ATS off a bye week
Air Force: 6-1 Over off a loss by 6 points or less
Marshall at Central Florida, 3:30 ET
Marshall: 2-9 ATS in road games
Central Florida: 6-1 Over off BB wins
Michigan at Michigan State, 3:30 EST
Michigan: 10-2 ATS vs. conference opponents
Michigan State: 0-7 ATS off a conference road loss
Texas A&M at Oklahoma, 3:30 ET
Texas A&M: 8-21 ATS as a road underdog
Oklahoma: 9-2 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Wisconsin at Ohio State, 3:30 ET
Wisconsin: 5-1 Under in November
Ohio State: 16-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Utah State at Fresno State, 5:00 ET
Utah State: 1-10 ATS after allowing 275+ rushing yards
Fresno State: 10-3 Under off BB conference games
Louisiana Tech at Idaho, 5:00 ET
Louisiana Tech: 2-9 ATS off a road game
Idaho: 6-1 Under off a conference road loss
New Mexico at TCU, 5:30 ET
New Mexico: 8-1 ATS away off a conference game
TCU: 7-0 Under off a loss as a favorite
Washington at Stanford, 6:30 ET
Washington: 0-7 ATS off a conference loss by 7 points or less
Stanford: 16-5 Under after scoring 9 points or less
Eastern Michigan at Toledo, 7:00 ET
Eastern Michigan: 17-5 Under playing on artificial turf
Toledo: 9-1 ATS at home off a win by 21+ points
Texas Tech at Baylor, 7:00 ET
Texas Tech: 16-2 ATS off a home loss
Baylor: 1-9 ATS off BB conference games
Texas at Oklahoma State, 7:00 ET
Texas: 0-6 ATS after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
Oklahoma State: 13-4 ATS at home after allowing 37+ points
Missouri at Colorado, 7:00 ET
Missouri: 8-2 Under as a road favorite
Colorado: 0-7 ATS off a road game
Wake Forest at Virginia, 7:00 ET
Wake Forest: 0-7 ATS off a conference win by 21+ points
Virginia: 6-0 ATS at home off BB conference games
Southern Miss at UAB, 7:00 ET
Southern Miss: 19-6 ATS off a loss by 17+ points
UAB: 12-2 Under after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Syracuse at Pittsburgh, 7:00 ET
Syracuse: 14-28 ATS as a road underdog
Pittsburgh: 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Florida State at Boston College, 7:30 ET
Florida State: 3-15 ATS away off 3+ conference games
Boston College: 7-1 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Tulsa at Tulane, 7:30 ET
Tulsa: 7-2 Under off a home conference win
Tulane: 1-11 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less
Oregon State at USC, 8:00 ET
Oregon State: 0-6 ATS off a win by 17+ points
USC: 6-1 Under as a favorite
Illinois at Minnesota, 8:00 ET
Illinois: 6-16 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Minnesota: 11-3 Over in home games
Wyoming at San Diego State, 9:00 ET
Wyoming: 2-11 ATS off BB conference games
San Diego State: 8-2 ATS off a conference loss
Washington State at California, 10:00 ET
Washington State: 8-1 ATS off a win as a home underdog
California: 3-11 ATS off 3+ conference games
Added Games:
Florida International at Arkansas State, 3:00 ET
Florida Int: 1-8 ATS off 5+ losses
Arkansas State: 24-11 ATS off BB losses
Troy at Georgia, 3:30 ET
Troy: 1-9 ATS away off BB ATS wins
Georgia: 16-4 Under after scoring 42+ points
Louisiana Lafayette at Tennessee, 4:00 ET
LA Lafayette: 6-18 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
Tennessee: 14-4 ATS at home off a home conference win
Middle Tennessee State at Louisiana Monroe, 7:00 ET
Mid Tenn State: 8-2 ATS off 3+ ATS wins
LA Monroe: 1-9 ATS off a win by 6 points or less
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, November 4th
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SMU at Houston, 8:00 EST ESPN
SMU: 1-9 ATS away off a loss by 6 points or less
Houston: 6-0 ATS at home off a conference game
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2007 9:37pm -
0 likes
NFL
Short Sheet
Sunday, November 4th
Week 9 Byes: Chicago, Miami, NY Giants, St. Louis
Washington at NY Jets, 1:00 EST
Washington: 7-2 Under off a loss by 28+ points
NY Jets: 21-6 ATS off a home division loss
Green Bay at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS in road games
Kansas City: 2-8 ATS off BB wins
Arizona at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Arizona: 12-3 Over as a road underdog
Tampa Bay: 6-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less
Carolina at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 8-2 ATS as a road underdog
Tennessee: 11-1 Over off BB wins by 6 points or less
San Francisco at Atlanta, 1:00 EST
San Francisco: 6-1 ATS off BB losses by 10+ points
Atlanta: 8-1 Under as a home favorite
Jacksonville at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 13-4 Under in dome stadiums
New Orleans: 1-8 ATS as a home favorite
Denver at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Denver: 6-0 ATS away off an Under
Detroit: 8-19 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Cincinnati at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
Cincinnati: 1-8 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Buffalo: 8-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
San Diego at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 17-5 ATS off a win by 21+ points
Minnesota: 1-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Seattle at Cleveland, 4:05 EST
Seattle: 0-8 ATS off a division win by 21+ points
Cleveland: 6-0 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less
New England at Indianapolis, 4:15 EST
New England: 7-1 Over as a favorite
Indianapolis: 8-0 ATS off a road win by 21+ points
Houston at Oakland, 4:15 EST
Houston: 10-2 Over with a line of +3 to -3
Oakland: 3-13 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Dallas at Philadelphia, 8:15 EST NBC
Dallas: 8-2 Over as a road favorite
Philadelphia: 13-3 Over as an underdog
Monday, November 5th
Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 EST ESPN
Baltimore: 18-5 ATS off a loss as a favorite
Pittsburgh: 9-1 Over at home off a win
posted by phantom
Oct. 31 2007 9:49pm -
0 likes
By Erick Smith, USA TODAY
Whether in a long-term relationship or as a member of a college football team, heartbreak is hard to overcome.
For football teams on the rebound from a tough loss, it is hard to get completely emotionally invested in the next game. It often makes one defeat worth two in the loss column.
The crisis usually happens when a team suffers its first loss of the season or sees one of its major goals slip away. It can happen when defeat is snatched from the jaws of victory in the final seconds. And the situation is made more difficult if that team has to go on the road the next Saturday.
California, poised to take over the No. 1 ranking in the polls, fell in the final seconds at home to Oregon State three weeks ago and hasn't won since.
South Florida was in position to run the table and reach the title game before losing at Rutgers. Predictably the Bulls were flat last Saturday against Connecticut.
FIND MORE STORIES IN: Oklahoma | Virginia Tech | College | Auburn | Georgia Tech | Rutgers | Texas A | Oregon State | Hokies | Allen Patrick
Michigan, Louisville, Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Cincinnati, South Carolina and Kentucky also have been victimized by this scenario this season.
The dilemma now faces both Virginia Tech and Southern California. The Hokies still were thinking about getting back into the national title race before melting down against Boston College in the final two minutes. Now they must go on the road and face Georgia Tech on Thursday night in front of a national television audience.
The Trojans have been in the BCS for the past five seasons, but are staring at the possibility of playing in the Holiday Bowl or a lesser bowl after losing to Oregon. At least they have the advantage of playing Oregon State at home, and have the experience of overcoming a tough loss earlier in the season to Stanford.
As for the question of who will next have to deal with a broken heart: Watch the five remaining unbeatens. When one falls, they could be in line for another stumble.
Perhaps the best philosophy — in college football as in real life — for dealing with heartbreaks: There's always other fish in the sea.
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 19 Wisconsin, noon
Might have to start becoming a believer in the Buckeyes after their beatdown of Penn State. A big win against the Badgers would do the trick. Ohio State 24, Wisconsin 10.
No. 2 Boston College vs. Florida State, 8 p.m.
Doug Flutie lives 23 years later in the body of Matt Ryan. That might be a little extreme, but the Eagles quarterback certainly is on his way to the Heisman Trophy after his performance against Virginia Tech, especially if can take down the Seminoles this week. Boston College 21, Florida State 14.
No. 3 LSU at No. 18 Alabama, 5 p.m.
Despite the animosity among LSU fans, Les Miles should have no hard feelings about Nick Saban leaving. He continues to reap the rewards of Saban's handiwork with 17 current starters who were part of Saban's final team in 2004. LSU 24, Alabama 17.
No. 4 Oregon vs. No. 6 Arizona State, 3:30 p.m.
The game of the year in the Pac-10 was supposed to be Southern Cal and California. Those teams have combined for five losses, while the Ducks and Sun Devils are 15-1. With the status of ASU quarterback Rudy Carpenter in doubt, Oregon and counterpart Dennis Dixon look primed to take control of the conference race. Oregon 31, Arizona State 16.
No. 5 Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M, 8 p.m.
Just when things were looking up for Dennis Franchione, the Aggies delivered another poor performance. Bob Stoops may have sympathy for his counterpart, but that won't stop the Sooners from going for an impressive win to bolster their BCS chances. Oklahoma 37, Texas A&M 12.
No. 8 Kansas vs. Nebraska, 12:30 p.m.
Not a misprint in your paper. The Jayhawks are really 19-point favorites against the Cornhuskers. And it may not be that close with Nebraska forced to start backup quarterback Joe Ganz. Kansas 38, Nebraska 14.
No. 9 Missouri at Colorado, 6:30 p.m.
The Buffaloes should have confidence after shutting down Texas Tech's passing offense last week in Lubbock. The challenge will be great with Chase Daniel and the Tigers coming to town. Even if Colorado can't pull the upset, this has been a great year for coach Dan Hawkins with his team likely to go bowling. Missouri 30, Colorado 21.
No. 10 Georgia vs. Troy, 1 p.m.
If it wasn't apparent before the Florida game, Knowshon Moreno is going to be the next great Georgia running back. And he's only a freshman. Georgia 31, Troy 13.
No. 12 Texas at Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m.
The Cowboys are only a one-point loss at Texas A&M away from being unbeaten since coach Mike Gundy's infamous meltdown in September. Maybe more coaches need to follow his lead. Oklahoma State 28, Texas 27.
No. 13 Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 7:30 p.m. (Thursday)
There are not many worse ways to lose than what the Hokies endured last Thursday. Getting back up and going on the road will take a huge amount of character. Georgia Tech 21, Virginia Tech 20.
No. 14 Michigan at Michigan State, 3:30 p.m.
Shortly after being hired, Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio installed a clock counting down the minutes until the Michigan game. It reaches zero this Saturday and the Spartans hope they don't turn into pumpkins. Michigan 27, Michigan State 24.
No. 15 Southern California vs. Oregon State, 8 p.m.
Some silver linings for Trojans fans. Pete Carroll is 20-0 in November as USC coach. John David Booty looks like he will return at quarterback. Plus the team should be motivated to avenge last year's loss to the Beavers. Southern California 30, Oregon State 14.
No. 16 Auburn vs. Tennessee Tech, 2:30 p.m.
Game ball to the schedule maker in Auburn. Not only do they get an easy opponent, somebody might confuse the Golden Eagles with the bigger school in the state when reading the box score. Auburn 34, Tennessee Tech 6.
No. 17 Florida vs. Vanderbilt, 12:30 p.m.
The good news for the Commodores is that they are one win away from becoming bowl eligible. That could mean their first postseason game in 25 years. The bad news is that they have lost 16 straight to the Gators, so the celebration may have to wait another week or two. Florida 35, Vanderbilt 17.
No. 20 Connecticut vs. Rutgers, 7:15 p.m.
The Huskies are barking atop the Big East and in the Top 25 for the first time in school history. After back-to-back games against South Florida and West Virginia, the Scarlet Knights better have something left for the trip to UConn. Connecticut 21, Rutgers 19.
No. 21 South Florida vs. Cincinnati, 3:30 p.m.
Two teams that took unbeaten records into the second week of October now enter November with two losses. There is still a chance for one to emerge in the balanced Big East, however that run will have to start this week. South Florida 24, Cincinnati 20.
No. 22 Boise State vs. San Jose State, 3 p.m.
As if the Broncos didn't need more help, Ian Johnson returns this week after missing time with a bruised kidney. They'll be prepared for the Spartans this week after nearly losing in San Jose last year. Boise State 42, San Jose State 20.
No. 24 Clemson at Duke, noon
Nobody was cheering more for Virginia Tech than Clemson. A win would have put the Tigers in control of their own destiny in the ACC. Now they'll have to hope for some help before their showdown with the Eagles in a couple weeks. Clemson 35, Duke 10.
No. 25 South Carolina at Arkansas, 8 p.m.
Two losses in a row have changed the momentum for the Gamecocks. Switching back to Blake Mitchell as the starting quarterback won't help with the Razorbacks finding their stride after a slow start. Arkansas 23, South Carolina 16.
Last week's record: 10-7 (8-9)
Season record: 138-43 (78-87)
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2007 4:38pm -
0 likes
Dr Bob NFL Posted Today at 10:22 AM
3 Star Selection
***OVER (37 1/2) - TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 28 Arizona 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
Tampa Bay’s offense has been better than their scoring average of 18.4 points indicates, as the Bucs have averaged 5.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Some miscues down in the red-zone have led to the lower than expected scoring, but those events are not likely to continue to happen and Tampa should move the ball well against an Arizona defense that is 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average defense). Tampa has injuries to the offensive line and to their running back unit, but they’ve run the ball at a decent level since top linemen Luke Petitgout went on the IR before week 5, and running back Earnest Graham is doing a good job running the ball (Tampa has run for 260 yards at 5.2 ypr the last two weeks). Arizona’s offense is also better than their season average of 0.3 yppl better than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl) now that Kurt Warner is the starting quarterback. Matt Leinart was horrible early in the season before getting injured (just 5.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while Warner has averaged 7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Warner was also considerably better than Leinart last season, so there is no doubt that Arizona is a better offensive team now than they were earlier in the season. Warner was knocked out early in his first start against Carolina in week 6, but the Cardinals averaged a solid 5.0 yppl in Warner’s first full game at quarterback against a very good Washington defense that would allow just 4.3 yppl at home to an average team. I rate Arizona’s attack at 1.1 yppl better than average with Warner at the helm and the Cardinals’ offense has an advantage over a solid Buccaneers defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl against teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Both offensive units have a clear advantage in this game and the Over looks like a very good play given that the total is a few points lower than an average NFL total. The Over even looks like a value if Tampa Bay continues to have trouble scoring in the redzone. Tampa Bay’s games have averaged 35.2 total points against teams that combine to average 40.2 total points per game, which is 5.0 below average). Arizona’s games average 43.4 total points against a schedule that combines to average only 37.4 total points, which is 6.0 points more than average. The average points scored in an NFL game this year is 42.0 with the median total points at 40 ½ points. Even just using compensated points would yield a fair total of 41 ½ points (40.5 median -5.0 + 6.0 = 41.5) and that doesn’t even take into account that Arizona is now a better offensive team with Warner at quarterback. The total is simply way to low and my math model is a solid 87-55-3 picking the Over when the difference is 6 points or more and the total is less than 48 points, including 8-3 this season. I’ll go OVER 38 points or less in a 3-Star Best Bet and the OVER is a 2-Star Best Bet from 38 ½ points to 41 points.
My math model also favors Tampa Bay by 6 ½ points and the Buccaneers apply to a solid 61- 21-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Jon Gruden is 24-11-2 ATS in his coaching career as a favorite or pick following a loss. That trend lost last week because of 3 random Jeff Garcia interceptions (he had thrown zero picks in the first 7 games and averages only 0.7 per game in his career). Tampa Bay out-gained Jacksonville 385 yards at 6.0 yppl to 221 yards at 3.7 yppl and would have won easily if not for the -3 in turnover margin. Unfortunately, Arizona applies to a solid 71-30-1 ATS situation and I’ll just lean with Tampa Bay in this game based on the math model forecast.
3 Star Selection
***Houston 23 OAKLAND (-3.0) 17
01:15 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
Oakland is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite (1-7 straight up), including 0-3 ATS this season, and the only game this season that the Raiders have won and covered was against winless Miami. Houston was -5 in turnovers last week in San Diego, giving them no chance to cover, but that loss sets up the Texans in a very strong 50-12-1 ATS subset of a 90-33-1 ATS road underdog bounce back situation. Houston is also a better team than Oakland, even with Sage Rosenfels starting at quarterback for the injured Matt Schaub. Rosenfels has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and his 6.9 yppp average on 227 career pass plays is much better than average (6.1 yppp is average in recent years). Houston doesn’t have much of a ground attack (just 3.3 ypr) but they have still been 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively this season and I rate them at 0.2 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at the helm. The Raiders defense has been 0.3 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team, so Houston should move the ball well in this game. Oakland’s offense has sputtered in recent weeks (just 4.0 yppl and 11 points per game in their last 3 games) and has been 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season, which is just as bad as a Houston defense that also 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl). Houston has an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage, but Rosenfels is a bit interception prone and the Raiders have a 2.8 points advantage in projected turnovers. Even with that advantage my math model only favors Oakland by 2 ½ points in this game, so the line is fair. The situation strongly favors Houston and I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-1.15 odds or better) and for 2- Stars at +3 (-1.20 or worse) down to +1 point.
2 Star Selection
**INDIANAPOLIS 27 New England (-5.5) 24
01:15 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
If anyone can stop the Patriots it is an undefeated Colts team that is certainly not intimidated by Tom Brady and company, who they’ve beaten 3 consecutive teams. What New England has done so far this season is unprecedented, as winning and covering the spread in each of their first 8 games has never been done before, but I still insist that the pointspreads have been inflated in recent weeks. Lost in the glare of New England’s fantastic start has been the great play of the Colts, who are as good as ever offensively and rate as the second best defensive team in the NFL after compensating for level of opponent. The Colts’ offense is 0.8 yards per play better than average this season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they have an advantage over a good Patriots’ defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average. The Colts’ defense has yielded just 4.5 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team, but they are at a disadvantage in this game against a Patriots’ attack that has averaged 6.6 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.3 yppl to an average team. New England just gained 6.4 yppl against Washington, the league’s best defensive team, so the question I asked myself is if the level of the opposing defense has any bearing on the Patriots’ offensive production. I calculated a regression equation for New England’s offense as a function of the level of the opposing defense and site and it turns out that the level of the opponent’s defense has less influence on the Patriots’ offense than normal. My math makes this game a pick, but the math would favor New England by 2 points if I adjust for the fact that the Patriots are influenced less than normal by good defensive teams. I can also make an adjustment based on the fact that New England’s scoring margin of 25.5 points per game is 6.8 points better than their statistics would project. The Colts’ 17.4 points average margin of victory is 3.1 points better than their stats would project, so I can certainly justify a line of New England by 5 ½ if each team continues to out-play their stats as they have so far this season (that’s my adjusted math model at New England by 2 points plus 6.8 minus 3.1 equals 5.7 points). But, there is no way I can justify a line higher than 5 ½ points and I think 2 ½ or 3 points is a fair line in this game. With the line at least fair, we can play the Colts based on a number of high percentage situations. Indy applies to a 47-12-1 ATS scheduling situation that plays on good teams at home after playing 2 or more games on the road. The colts also apply to a 67-24-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation while New England applies to a negative 23-74-3 ATS situation as well as a few other negative situations. I’ll resist making the Colts a 3-Star as they probably should be based on the strong situations, but I’ll take Indianapolis in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars if the line gets up to +7 points.
2 Star Selection
**PHILADELPHIA 21 Dallas (-3.5) 17
05:15 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
The Cowboys are the 3rd best team in the NFL so far, rating at 1.1 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.7 yppl better than average on defense in 4 games since impact LB Greg Ellis joined that unit. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is just 3-4 straight up and the Eagles have been a major disappointment so far. Philadelphia has been pretty offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and a bit better than average on defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The Eagles certainly have proven that they can be better offensively and the defense is getting healthy again after struggling for a few weeks without star CB Lito Sheppard (he’s played just 3 games) and star S Brian Dawkins, who has played just 2 games but will be back this week. My math model favors Dallas by just 1 ½ points in this game and the Eagles apply to a 73-26-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. I certainly don’t mind taking points with an Eagles squad that is 36-20-2 ATS as an underdog in coach Andy Reid’s 9 seasons. I’ll take Philadelphia in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-1.20 odds or better) or more.
Strong Opinion
TENNESSEE (-4.0) 21 Carolina 13
10:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
Carolina’s offense has really struggled without starting quarterback Jake Delhomme, as backups David Carr and Vinny Testaverde have combined to lead the offense to just 4.5 yards per play in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team. David Carr will start this game and he’s been particularly bad this year (4.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but he’s likely to play better than he’s been playing and I rate the attack at 0.5 yppl worse than average with Carr at the controls. Don’t expect much production from that unit in this game against a stout Titans’ defense that has yielded just 4.9 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. The only problem with the Titans is an offense that has been 0.7 yppl worse than average with Vince Young under center. Young has had a horrible season throwing the football (5.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) and Tennessee’s rushing attack has been only average this season (4.3 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr). Carolina has been slightly better than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl), so Tennessee is likely to produce around their average number of points in this game (they average 20.7 points per game). The Titans defense has given up 14 points or less in 5 of their 7 games with the only two teams scoring more than 14 points being good offensive teams (Indy and Houston) – something which Carolina certainly is not. My math model favors Tennessee by 7 ½ points and the Titans apply to a solid 158-92-9 ATS statistical profile indicator. Carolina is 22-7-2 ATS as an underdog in recent years, which basically cancels out the angle favoring Tennessee. The value is still on the side of Tennessee and I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at -4 points or less and I’d certainly take the Titans in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.
Strong Opinion
MINNESOTA 21 San Diego (-7.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
San Diego didn’t look so good early in the season but the Chargers have won and covered in 3 straight games heading into this affair with the Vikings. The line on this game suggests that the Chargers are back to being the Chargers after struggling early in the season, but that may not necessarily be the case. San Diego has played better the last 3 games, but it’s pretty easy to look good when you’re +10 in turnover margin in a 3 game span, as the Chargers have been in their last 3 games (+5 TO last week against Houston). San Diego is clearly a good team, but being favored by 7 points on the road against a decent Vikings team is a bit of a stretch. Minnesota is only 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback and the Vikings are 0.1 yppl better than average on defense. San Diego is 0.4 yppl better than average on offense for the season and just average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team). My math model favors San Diego by only 1 ½ points, so there certainly appears to be an overreaction to the Chargers’ recent success. Now, it certainly is possible that San Diego will continue to play at the level they’ve played the last 3 games (without the benefit of +10 in turnover margin, of course), but the math would only favor San Diego by 7 points if I only used their last 3 games – so the current line is assuming the very best from the Chargers. There is no valid reason to throw out San Diego’s first 4 games of the season, so the true line is probably closer to 4 points or so. Even if the line should be 7 points the Vikings are still worth a look given that they apply to a solid 158-92-9 ATS statistical profile indicator while San Diego applies to a negative 35-61-1 ATS letdown situation. The only game Minnesota has lost by more than 7 points this season was a respectable 10 point loss on the road at Dallas, so they can certainly hang within 7 points at home today. I’ll respect San Diego’s recent success enough to keep me from playing Minnesota, but I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2007 4:41pm -
0 likes
3 Star Selection
***OHIO (-7.5) 36 Temple 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 02-Nov-07
Temple has won 3 straight conference games after starting the season with 5 losses, but the Owls are now without starting quarterback Adam DiMichele, who was injured in the Owls’ win over Miami-Ohio and is lost for the season. Backup Vaughn Charlton did a decent job off the bench in that game but there is plenty of evidence that Vaughn is not nearly the quarterback that DiMichele is. Charlton has averaged just 3.4 yards per pass play on 120 career pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback, and he is 2.1 yppp worse than average on his 21 pass plays this season. DiMichele, meanwhile, has averaged 5.8 yppp this season against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Temple’s offense is 0.9 yards per play worse than average for the season (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and they’re likely to be worse than that with Charlton at quarterback as he was 1.2 yppp worse than DiMichele last season and 1.0 yppp worse than DiMichele in limited action this season. Ohio’s defense has been 0.7 yppl worse than average this season, so the Bobcats would have an advantage against the Owls’ offense even if DiMichele were healthy. Ohio also has an advantage on the other side of the ball, as the Bobcats are just 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) while Temple has been 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively. The Bobcats are more dynamic offensively with freshman quarterback Theo Scott having taken over for Brad Bower. Scott got his first start last week and led the Bobcats to 6.3 yppl and 38 points against a Bowling Green defense that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Scott’s passing numbers (92 pass plays) haven’t been quite as good as Bower’s, but his running (169 yards on 28 running plays) adds to the rushing attack and makes the Bobcats tougher to prepare for. Overall, I rate the Ohio offense about the same as there season average with Scott at the helm, but there is plenty of potential for improvement based on last week’s good offensive showing. Aside from having edges on both sides of the ball, the Bobcats also have great special teams while Temple’s special teams have been poor. My math model favors Ohio by 17 points (it would have been 15 points with DiMichele at QB for Temple) and Temple applies to a negative 61-141-1 ATS letdown situation. I’ll take Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less, for 4-Stars at -7 points or less (at - 1.15 odds or better) and for 2-Stars from -10 ½ to -12 points.
3 Star Selection
***PENN ST. (-7.0) 35 Purdue 18
09:00 AM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
Penn State is not in the same class as #1 Ohio State, but the Nittany Lions should easily beat a mediocre and overrated Purdue team that has been destroyed by good teams. All 7 of Purdue’s victories are against mediocre or bad teams and the Boilermakers were beaten soundly by the two good teams that they’ve faced, losing at home 7-23 to Ohio State and 21-48 at Michigan. Penn State didn’t look good against Ohio State either, but the Lions were competitive in their 9-14 loss at Michigan and out-gained the Wolverines 4.6 yards per play to 4.1 yppl while Purdue was out-gained by Michigan 4.1 yppl to 6.3 yppl. Purdue built up their good offensive stats early in the season against bad teams, but the Boilermakers are just average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and only 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). Penn State, meanwhile, is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Nittany Lions are 0.8 yppl better than average defensively after excluding the yards that their backup defense gave up to Buffalo after the starters were pulled with a big lead. So, Penn State has a slight edge when they have the ball and a huge edge with their stout defense against Purdue’s mediocre offense. Penn State also has an advantage in special teams and the Nittany Lions apply to a very strong 31-4 ATS subset of an 82-32-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator – and Penn State is 18-8- 1 ATS in their last 27 home games (4-2 ATS this season). My math model gives Penn State a 61% chance of covering at -7 points and the strong statistical indicator adds to that percentage. I’ll take Penn State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2- Stars from -7 ½ to -10 points.
2 Star Selection
**ARKANSAS (-4.5) 32 South Carolina 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
Arkansas is coming off an easy 58-10 warm-up win over Florida International while South Carolina is in turmoil after losing two straight games and shuffling quarterbacks once again. Steve Spurrier is turning to senior Blake Mitchell this week after Mitchell came off the bench to throw for 290 yards on 45 passes last week. However, that 6.4 yards per pass play that Mitchell averaged last week isn’t all that good considering that Tennessee would allow an average quarterback to throw for 6.7 yppp against them at home. South Carolina has been 0.3 yppp worse than average for the season (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average team) and Mitchell has actually been worse than that on his 140 pass plays this season – averaging just 5.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp. I’m not going to adjust downward based on Mitchell’s stats because the more effective Chris Smelley will probably come off the bench if Mitchell struggles. Both South Carolina quarterbacks will likely struggle against an Arkansas defense that has allowed just 4.4 yppp this season (to teams that would average 5.5 yppp against an average defense). Overall, South Carolina is just average offensively while Arkansas is 0.5 yards per play better than average on defense. The best thing about South Carolina is their pass defense (4.3 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp), but Arkansas won’t need to throw the ball much given that their rushing attack is so good (298 yards per game at 6.4 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) and that the Gamecocks are only 0.2 yprp better than average defending the run. Overall Arkansas is 0.7 yppl better than average on offense while South Carolina is 0.9 ypppl better than average on defense – but the Gamecocks’ normal advantage on defense (pass defense) won’t benefit them today nearly as much as it normally does. My math model favors Arkansas by 10 ½ points in this game and the Razorbacks qualify in a very good 49-9-1 ATS subset of a 127-53-3 ATS home momentum situation. South Carolina has been good on the road under Steve Spurrier (10-3 ATS), but South Carolina has played only 1 point better on the road than they have overall this season (after adjusting for strength of opponent and the fact that they’re on the road, of course). Arkansas hasn’t beaten a good team all season, but the Hogs out-gained Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn (their 3 losses) by an average of 5.5 yppl to 5.1 yppl – so it’s not like they’ve played poorly in those games. However, I’ll resist making Arkansas a 3-Star Best Bet as I probably should based on my math and the strong situation. I’ll take Arkansas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Kansas St. (-14.0) 37 IOWA ST. 17
09:30 AM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
Kansas State is 6-1 ATS this season with their only spread loss coming against a Kansas team that is a perfect 7-0 ATS. The Wildcats still appear to be underrated and they are likely to beat the Cyclones pretty handily today. Kansas State has a good offense that has averaged 5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl against an average team and they have the edge over a mediocre Iowa State defense that is just 0.1 yppl better than average. Kansas State’s real advantage in this game is when the Cyclones have the ball, as Iowa State is 1.0 yppl worse than average on offense (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) while the Wildcats are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). Kansas State also has the nation’s best special teams this year while Iowa State is horrible in special teams, so expect the Wildcats to score at least one touchdown or set up an easy score with their special teams. My math model favors Kansas State by 20 ½ points and I’ll consider Kansas State a Strong Opinion at - 14 points or less and I’ll make Kansas State a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Navy 29 NOTRE DAME (-3.5) 27
11:30 AM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
Notre Dame has beaten Navy 43 consecutive times, but the Irish have never been this bad. This game will come down to Notre Dame’s national worst passing attack against Navy’s national worst pass defense. The Irish have averaged a pathetic 3.2 yards per pass play and only 3.1 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp and 4.8 yppl to an average team), but they actually have a chance to move the ball through the air in this game with Navy allowing a horrendous 9.1 yppp to teams that would average 5.9 yppp against an average defensive team. Current Irish quarterback Evan Sharpley has been the best of Notre Dame’s quarterbacks, but he still has been 1.9 yppp worse than average (3.7 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB). Sharpley actually should post better than average passing numbers in this game given that Navy’s defense has been 3.2 yppp worse than average. That does not necessarily mean that Notre Dame is going to win since they still have a horrible rushing attack and Navy’s good option running attack (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) is going to move the ball well against a Notre Dame defense that is just barely better than average defending the run (5.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team). My math model favors Navy by 2 points in this game and Notre Dame applies to a negative 16-48 ATS situation. Navy, meanwhile, is 74-34-1 ATS in regular season games played away from home, including 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in South Bend. Navy also tends to beat the teams that they are capable of beating, as they are 20- 7 ATS since 2003 when facing a team with a losing record, including 11-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 7 points in those games (10-1 straight up). Normally I’d be playing Navy in this game as a Best Bet but there is some uncertainty on how well Notre Dame’s horrible pass attack will perform against Navy’s horrible pass defense since Navy has not faced a team nearly as bad as Notre Dame on offense and Notre Dame has not faced a defensive unit nearly as bad as Navy’s. I’ll consider Navy a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Texas El Paso (-7.5) 44 RICE 30
12:00 PM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
I’ve gone against Rice for 4 consecutive weeks and after getting lucky with turnovers against Southern Miss (7 S. Miss turnovers) and Houston (5 Houston turnovers and covered despite being out-gained by over 300 yards) the Owls haven’t been so fortunate in not covering against Memphis and Marshall. Now it’s UTEP’s turn to beat up on Rice. The Miners’ above average offense (6.3 yards per play with their starting unit in against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) will feast on a horrible Rice defense that’s allowed 6.8 yppl to teams that would average only 5.3 yppl against an average defensive unit. UTEP has scored 48 points or more in their last 3 games against horrible defensive teams (Texas Southern, SMU, and Tulsa) and only Texas Southern has a defense as bad as Rice. Rice has averaged only 4.8 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) but the Owls are only 0.5 yppl worse than average since their pathetic offensive display in their opening home loss to Nicholls State. UTEP is 0.9 yppl worse than average defensively, but Rice has only a 0.4 yppl advantage when their offense is on the field while the Miners have a 1.9 yppl advantage and should score on most of their possessions. UTEP quarterbacks have only thrown 5 interceptions in 5 games and the only 2 times Rice has covered in 8 games is when they got 5 or more turnovers, which isn’t likely to happen in this game. My math model favors UTEP by 14 ½ points and I’ll take UTEP in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (strong opinion up to -9 points).
Strong Opinion
UL Lafayette 23 TENNESSEE (-28.5) 46
01:00 PM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
It will be tough for Tennessee to get up for this non-conference affair as a huge favorite after their hard fought overtime win over SEC rival South Carolina last week and with Arkansas coming to Knoxville next week. Non conference home favorites of more than 21 points are just 19-40-3 ATS against losing teams if the big home favorite won and covered the previous week in a game in which they were favored by 7 points or less or getting points (i.e. a big non-conference home favorite after winning a tough game). Meanwhile, Lafayette is the type of team that has a good chance of covering as a big underdog since they run the ball so well. Good running teams make good big dogs because they can move the ball with less risk of turnovers while also running the clock more than passing teams. UL Lafayette applies to an 82-39-5 ATS big underdog statistical profile indicator that plays on good running teams as big dogs and the Ragin’ Cajuns certainly shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball on the ground in this game. Lafayette averages 252 yards on the ground per game at 6.1 yards per rushing play (against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) while Tennessee is just mediocre defending the run (5.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team). Tennessee is going to score plenty of points against Lafayette’s bad defense, but Lafayette should score enough to stay within the big line and the Vols aren’t likely to be fully focused on this game. My math model favors Tennessee by just 26 points and Lafayette is already 2-0 ATS this season as an underdog of more than 21 points, including a 14 point loss at South Carolina as a 28 ½ point dog in which the Cajuns ran for 254 yards at 5.5 yprp. I’ll consider UL Lafayette a Strong Opinion at +28 points or more and as a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes back up to +31 or more.
Strong Opinion
TOLEDO (-7.5) 38 Eastern Mich 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
Toledo is coming off a 70-21 home thrashing of Northern Illinois last week (the Rockets were favored by just 3 ½ points) and that win sets up the Rockets in a very good 83-24-3 ATS home momentum situation this week. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, is coming off a 19-2 upset win over Western Michigan in which they were +5 in turnover margin. The Eagles actually out-played the Broncos in that game, but that win sets them up in a very negative 17-62 ATS road letdown situation today. Toledo has covered the last two weeks at home and the Rockets are now 28-8 ATS at home when not favored by 28 points or more. The problem with making Toledo a Best Bet is that the line has been over-inflated based on last week’s impressive showing by the Rockets. My math model favors Toledo by only 5 ½ points and while the situations give the Rockets a 63.7% chance of covering at a fair line the chance of covering at -8 points is only 55.5%, which is not good enough to make this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider Toledo a Strong Opinion at -9 or less (54.3% cover at -9) and I’d only play Toledo as a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (59.2% at 7, but 56.2% at -7 ½).
dr bob
posted by phantom
Nov. 1 2007 7:29pm -
0 likes
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK:
AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
12-1
(92%)
PEEKA-
BOO PLAY AGAINST any sub .700
NFL road favorite off a win if
they are scheduled to face the
defending Super Bowl champs
in their next game.
Play Against:
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
ALABAMA over Lsu by 3
First-year Tide head coach Nick Saban faces a daunting statistic in this
intriguing match between Alabama and Saban’s former SEC team
from Baton Rouge: the series visitor is 12-2-1 ATS. However, the Tide
has been like money in the bank as dogs off a SU win. Bama stands
30-13-1 ATS in that role, a number that tightens to 26-9-1 if the team
is allowing 21.5 or less points per game. Saban also owns a 22-12
mark of success when playing a home game against a foe off a SU
win. The clincher comes when we note that LSU coach Les Miles is the
answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. One look at those
numbers and you know which way we’ll be rolling today.
5 BEST BET
TOLEDO OVER EASTERN MICH BY 20
Rockets had been staging for several weeks before fi nally reaching
ignition sequence against Northern Illinois, vaporizing the Huskies
with a searing 70-point blast in which they gained an astonishing
812 yards of offense. Suddenly, what looked like a lost season for
Toledo could turn into a 7-5 bowl-campaign if they close out the
year with three wins. The Rocketmen have been close to perfect
when playing their fi nal home game of the season, going 14-1 SU
& 7-2 ATS – and churning out 146 points in the last three games
tells us this year’s team is a good bet to build on those strong LHG
numbers. UT’s trusty 8-1 ATS mark in straight-up revenge wins as a
favorite cements it
4 BEST BET
USC OVER OREGON ST BY 28
Trojans let us down as our 5-Star College Game of the Month,
winning the stat battle again but failing on the scoreboard in a loss
at Oregon. Pete Carroll’s team is one of only seven college teams
to remain perfect ITS for the season and they return home to the
Coliseum where they’ve covered nine of 11 series meetings with the
Beavers. Carroll is also 8-3 SUATS off a SU loss and would love to heap
a little pain and suffering on OSU’s Mike Riley: the Beavers’ 33-31
upset of the Trojans last year snapped USC’s 38-game regular season
win streak. With the dam builders physically bruised and battered,
and just 1-6 ATS taking points from a Pac 10 foe seeking revenge,
we’ll look for Pistol Pete to reload in this critical conference clash.
3 BEST BET
OKLAHOMA ST OVER TEXAS BY 7
Cowboys kicked back in Stillwater last week to rest and work on the
Texas game plan. Our PLAYBOOK database uncovered this nugget:
conference home underdogs off back-to-back wins playing with
rest are a rejuvenating 29-10 ATS, a stat that fi ts like a glove with
Okie State’s 9-4 spread streak as a dog at Boone Pickens Stadium.
The Longhorns are not the dominant team of recent seasons: Texas
was forced to score 19 unanswered fourth-quarter points to avoid
an embarrassing loss to mediocre Nebraska. The Horns have been
a poor investment as Big 12 road favorites, going just 2-10 in that
role when laying single digits versus a foe off a SU win. We’ll hang
our hats on the cowpokes, and not the cattle, in this southwest shootout.
NFL
5 BEST BET
Broncos finally take to the road after camping at home throughout
the month of October. History tells us it should not be much of
a problem, though, as Denver is 11-3 SUATS on the road after a
Monday Night performance, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog. The
bottom line is that we’re not all that enamored with the Lions’
lofty 5-2 record as they reside near the bottom of the league in a
majority of defensive stats. And because we like underdogs with
the better offense and the better defense, the feeling here is this
cowardly Lion gets exposed today when Denver improves on its 5-1
SU mark in this series.
Denver over DETROIT by 10
4 BEST BET
Truth of the matter is, off last week’s ‘inside-out’ win last Sunday
against Tampa Bay, we were prepared to fade the Jags today.
Then, after deeper research, we did an ABOUT FACE. Not only
does Marc’s BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article (see page 2) come into
play here today, but so, too, does Jack Del Rio’s glossy dog log
in non-vision games. That’s because he is 10-4 SU & 11-3 ATS in
these games when his team takes the fi eld with a .500 or better
record, including 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS when taking less than six
points. Expect the Saints' win skein to stop at three as they dip to
1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in games off a trio of wins.
Jacksonville over NEW ORLEANS by 8
3 BEST BET
If there’s one constant in the NFL we’ve come to rely on it’s
Panther head coach John Fox taking points. That’s confi rmed
by his sterling 22-6-1 ATS mark as a road dog in his NFL career,
including 21-3-1 ATS when taking 8 or fewer points. Whew! Meld
those numbers into Tennessee's terrible 1-10 ATS log as a favorite
off a non-division game when facing a foe off a loss and suddenly
it’s a Pointer Sisters feeling (We’re All Excited). Vinny or no Vinny,
we’re on a Fox hunt here today.
Carolina over TENNESSEE by 7
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 2:32pm -
0 likes
THE RED SHEET
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
OHIO STATE 41 - Wisconsin 10 - (12 Noon - EDT) -- Line opened at OhioSt minus 16½, and is now minus
15½. Pardon us, but a drop in this line? Unfathomable, except for the fact that there is still
a large portion of the gaming public which hasn't been sold on this Buckeye edition. Perhaps
a carryover effect from the huge egg that they laid in LY's embarrassing national title
loss to Florida. But make no mistake, this is the best team in the nation, & has proven its
worth by the week, including LW's road rout of a solid PennSt outfit, which had been near
invincible at home. Badgers' recent improvement has only served to keep the spread very
much in sight. Methodical Bucks are on a mission, & just continue here.
RATING: OHIO STATE 89
COLORADO 27 - Missouri 20 - (6:30) -- Line opened at Missouri minus 4½, and is now minus 4. The
Tigers of Missouri had been "money in the bank", prior to last week's sluggish performance,
in barely squeaking by 28½-pt dog IowaSt. After jumping to a 14-0 lead in the game's first
8:08, they were stung by an INT runback TD by the Cycs, & not only settled for a 14-pt win
(14½ pt line loss), but were outgained, 389-366. And, no they weren't peeking ahead, as
they had a score to settle with IowaSt, which had upset them just last year. The Buffaloes
have been absolutely superb, since their upset of Oklahoma, & are 35½ pts ahead of the
spot at home, & that includes FlaSt, Oklahoma, & Kansas. Upset.
RATING: COLORADO 89
KANSAS 51 - Nebraska 13 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Kansas minus 14, and is now minus 17½. Yet
another spread that makes little sense, as we were figuring somewhere in the 22 to 25 pt
area, prior to last week's games. And all the Jayhawks did a week ago, was to extend their
record to a perfect 8-0, & their spread log to 7-0. Line has to reflect the Huskers' decent
showing at Texas, in which, as 20½-pt dogs, they actually led the 'Horns 17-3, with 4 minutes
left in the 3rd, before finally being worn down. They Jayhawks are off to their best start
in 98 years, average 215 RYs & 264 PYs, while ranking 5th in total "D", & 2nd in scoring
"D". Have a ton of scores to settle with the Huskers, & do so in style here.
RATING: KANSAS 89
Florida State 27 - BOSTON COLLEGE 24 - (8:00) -- Line opened at BC minus 6½, and is still minus 6½.
The Eagles have risen to the Number Two spot in the nation, & deservedly so, with their
brilliant 8-0 start. Led by QB Ryan, & the land's 2nd-best rushing "D", they have staked their
claim. But, if it weren't for the recovery of an onside kick in the final 2 minutes, in that nearmiracle
win over VaTech, LW, their perfect mark would have bitten the dust. Their Achilles
heel, is their running game, which ranks only 85th in the nation, & which has topped 168
RYs just twice all year (32 RYs last week). The dog is 17-6 ATS in Seminole games of late,
as well as 28-15 ATS in BC contests. 'Noles well remember LY's wrencher.
RATING: FLORIDA STATE 88
CENTRAL FLORIDA 55 - Marshall 20 - (3:30) -- Line opened at CentFlorida minus 14, and is still minus 14.
Yet another spread that makes little sense, in light of the sieve that is Marshall's defense (35
ppg). We had this one circled, 2 weeks back, following the Knights' 44-23 drubbing of
always dangerous Tulsa, which represented an 18½-pt cover. But we were sure that the
line would take a jump, due to UFC's upset of SoMiss on Sunday Night (20 pt cover).
However a spread of about a FG less than was anticipated prior to last week. So, we aren't
about to pass on it. Sure, the Herd snapped its 8-game slide a week ago. So what? Have
to see Smith (155 RYpg) & Co continuing along. CF: 42.3 ppg at home.
RATING: CENTRAL FLORIDA 88
New England 44 - INDIANAPOLIS 34 - (4:15) -- Line opened at NewEngland minus 4½, and is now minus
5. Simply amazing that a team as splendid as the defending champions (& perfect) Colts
can be installed as 5-pt underdogs at home. The very first home dog setup since Dungy
arrived in 2002. Whatever can be said about Indianapolis has already been said, including
their 12 straight wins, their 35-15 ppg edge at home, their 10-1 ATS run against nondivision
squads, their defensive improvement, their receivers, & oh yes, their QB, who has
taken his spot among the best ever to play the game. But this Patriot team has taken it all
to a level, previously unheard of. A match in all aspects, & a 14.6 ppg ATS edge!
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): BYU, Pittsburgh, Oregon, Toledo -- NFL: Tampa Bay, San Diego, Pittsburgh
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Kansas (-14 to -17½); Nevada (-3½ to -6½); UConn (Pick
to -3); La-Lafayette (+32½ to +30); NoCarolina (-1 to -2½); NoCaroSt (+13½ to +12); SoCarolina (+6 to
+4½); SanJoseSt (+27 to +25½); Buffalo (+8½ to +7); Michigan (-3 to -4½); NewMexico (+5 to +3½); Toledo
(-5½ to -7); Army (+17½ to +16). -- TIME CHANGES: Rutgers/UConn: now 7:15; Cincy/SoFla: now 3:30;
Md/NoCarolina: now 3:45; Ark/SoCarolina: now 8:00; IowaSt/KansSt: now 12:30; Kansas/Nebraska: now
12:30; PennSt/Purdue: now Noon; Alabama/LSU: now 5:00; Oregon/ArizSt: now 6:45; Miami-Ohio/Buffalo:
now 3:00; Okla/TexA&M: now 8:00; OhioSt/Wisc: now Noon; Baylor/TexTech: now 3:00; OklaSt/Texas: now
3:30; Colo/Mo: now 6:30; Va/Wake: now Noon; Pitt/Syracuse: now Noon; BC/FlaSt: now 8:00.
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 2:32pm -
0 likes
KILLER SPORTS / MTI
MTi’s SIDE Play of the MONTH!
5-Star Houston +3 over OAKLAND—The Raiders are getting way
too much respect from the linesmakers. They are 2-5 on the season
and they are laying a field goal to the 3-5 Texans. Right away we can
cite the fact that the league is 0-19-1 ATS a home favorite versus any
team with more wins after playing on the road. Home favorites that
are off a road game have been drastically overestimated when they
are facing a team with more wins. Here the Raiders are off a game
in Tennessee and that’s enough to qualify for this strong play-against
system that has been cited in this newsletter numerous times already
this season. Last week, it produced TWO winners. Both the Jets and
the Bears were home favorites over teams that had more wins than
them and both the Jets and the Bears were off road games. The Jets
and the Bears both lost outright notching two more straight up winners
for this amazing league-wide system.
Last week, we had the Eagles over Minnesota in this spot and one
of the reasons was the league’s terrible performance the week after
almost pulling a road upset. In last week’s issue, we cited the fact that
the Vikings were up at the half in Dallas and caved in the second
half. Teams have a hard time recovering from this. Indeed, the league
is 0-15 ATS after a loss as a dog against a non-divisional opponent
in which they were winning at the half. Last week in Tennessee, the
Raiders were up 9-3 on the Titans as a 7-point underdog. They were
shutout in the second half and lost 13-9. This is absolutely no reason
to play on them here. It would have been much better for the raiders
if they were blown out last week. In the close loss, they had to give
a supreme effort on both sides of the ball in an effort to secure the
upset. Coming up empty in this spot has left teams both emotionally
and physically drained, and hence, vulnerable to the upset. In fact, in
only 2 of the 15 games did the home team win straight up.
The Raiders themselves have a lot of play-against trends in this situation.
Against the Titans last week, Oakland committed 14 penalties
for 100 yards. The Raiders have a terrible times after getting flagged
excessively. In fact, Oakland is 0-7 ATS (-10.5 ppg) the week after a
road game in which they committed 100+ yards of penalties. We have
more. In fact, we’re just getting started. Oakland out-gained the Titans,
but the Raiders play terribly after a loss in which they outgained their
opponent, going 0-7 ATS (-9.1 ppg) as a favorite the week after a loss
in which they outgained their opponent. The Texans like to throw
the ball and they have an efficient offense. Oakland has had trouble
against similar teams. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS (-11.7 ppg) when the
line is within 3 of pick at home and their opponent’s season-to-date
average pass attempts per game is greater than 35 and 0-8 ATS (-11.0
ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick and they are facing a team that
has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.
In their last three games the Raiders have scored 14, 10 and 9
points respectively. When the offense can’t put points on the board,
the defense adopts a defeatist attitude: Why should they give 110% if
their offense sucks? This, not surprisingly, has led to poor ATS results.
The Raiders are 0-11 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since as a favorite when their
DPS was negative in each of their last three games. Oakland has lost
each of their last six straight up in this situation.
The Texans got clobbered last week in San Diego for their third
straight loss. Here they are playing in their second straight road game.
However, Kubiak is no dummy. As soon as he saw that the Chargers
were going to blow them out, which was very early in the game, he
began planning for this week vs Oakland. Unlike the Raiders, the
Texans were not pressing the entire game last week. Houston knows
how to handle the second of two road games, as they are a perfect 6-0
ATS on the road after playing on the road, covering the spread by an
average of 11.3 ppg. In their last qualifying game, they beat the Raiders
23-14 getting 3 in Oakland. Houston not only wins this one outright,
they embarrass the Raiders even further. Moneyline Play.
MTi’s FORECAST: Houston 27 OAKLAND 13
MTi’s Totals Play of the Week!!
4-Star San Diego at Minnesota OVER 41—Last week the Chargers
had 35 points at the half and coasted home 35-10. We look
for more offense vs the Vikings this week. San Diego is 12-0 OU on
the road the week after they scored at last ten points more than their
season-to-date average, as long as they did not win by 38+ points. The
Chargers have gone over by an average of 12.1 ppg in this situation
and played to a 35-27 final in their last active date.
The Chargers capitalized on five turnovers from the Texans last
week and this also indicates a play on the OVER. The Chargers are
9-0 OU as a single-digit favorite the week after a win in which they
benefited from at least four turnovers. Besides these perfect team
trends, we also have some league-wide systems supporting a play on
the OVER here.
The Chargers opened up a big early lead and coasted home last
week as a big home favorite over the Texans, allowing Houston to hang
onto the ball for much of the second half. This leads to OVERs the
following week. In fact, the league is 11-0 OU as a 7+ point favorite
when they are off a game in which they had at least three FEWER
minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average as a
TD+ favorite.
San Diego has been fortunate in the turnover department in each
of the last three weeks, as they have had a positive takeaway margin
each time. This allows them to play with aggression on both sides of
the ball and leads to higher scoring games. In fact, the league is 7-0
OU as a road 7+ favorite when they had a positive takeaway margin
in each of their last three games, going over the total by an average
of 13.6 ppg.
The Chargers virtuosity in turnover margin will not go un-noticed
by the Vikings. Minnesota has historically played higher scoring games
vs similar opponent. The Vikings are 10-0-2 OU (7.9 ppg) as a 7+
dog when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least
2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.
Yes, the Vikings’ offense has struggled lately, scoring only 14 and 16
points in the last two weeks respectively. Contrary to what the amateur
handicapping might think, this is a strong OVER situation for Minnesota.
In fact, the Vikings are 8-0-1 OU when they are off a home
game and their DPS was negative in each of the past two weeks.
Finally, we can point to Minnesota’s poor conversion rate vs the
Eagles last week. The Vikings are 7-0 OU the week after a loss as an
underdog in which they converted at most one-third of their third
down attempts, going over by an average of 9.8 ppg. Minnesota
should get close to 20 points here and that should be plenty to get
this one OVER.
MTi’s FORECAST: San Diego 31 MINNESOTA 20
3-Star Green Bay at Kansas City UNDER 38’—The Packers are on
a roll, but so are the Chiefs. Green Bay is 3-0 on the road this season
and the Chiefs have won their last two games — both as an underdog.
The linesmakers put this one at a toss-up and this strongly indicates
the UNDER. The league is 0-11 OU when the line is within three of
pick’em and the road team has won their last two road games. This
system provided the OU winner in the Monday Night game in each of
the last two weeks. The Packers qualify again. In addition, the Packers
themselves are 0-8 OU (-6.9 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick on
the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak.
Finally, the league is 0-7 OU (-12.3 ppg) in their second straight
road game when they are off a win in the first in which they got at least
first downs via the penalty. This one should stay under — especially
the first half. Let’s go UNDER
MTi’s FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 17 Green Bay 16
MTi’s Teaser Play of the Week
MTi’s Teaser Play of the Week won last week, making it three
in a row.
To start this week’s Three-Teamer, we’ll use the Panthers, who are
21-0 ATSp10 on the road after a straight up loss at home.
Next, we’ll add the Patriots, who are 20-0 ATSp10 when they won
and covered their last three games.
Finally, to complete our three-teamer, we’ll use the Ravens, who
are 20-0 ATSp10 when facing a team that has allowed an average of
fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date.
That makes our 3-team, 10-point teaser for week 9:
4-Star Carolina +14, New England +5’, Baltimore +19’
MTi’s late teasers have been 19-2 over the past three weeks with the
teasers rated 4-Stars and higher a perfect 13-0 and the three-teamers a
perfect 12-0. They are available at KillerCappers.com all season with
a web debit account. As a ways, MTi’s teasers are guaranteed to be
PERFECT or you pay nothing.
*ATSp10 means against the spread plus ten points. That is, when used in a
ten-point teaser.
Perfect NFL Systems ACTIVE Week 9
The League is 9-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since November 20, 2005 as
a favorite the week after a straight up loss at home as a favorite in
which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-todate
average. (TB)
The League is 7-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since December 11, 2005 as
a road dog the week after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog in which
they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their
season-to-date average. (CAR, HOU)
The League is 0-19-1 ATS (-13.8 ppg) since December 03, 2006
as a home favorite versus any team with more wins. after playing on
the road. (NO, OAK)
The League is 0-8 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since December 20, 1998 as a
road 7+ favorite the week after a straight up win at home as a TD+
favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their
season-to-date average. (SD
The League is 0-8 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since October 16, 2005 as a road
favorite after a road game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes
of possession time. (WAS)
The League is 0-9 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since October 08, 2006 as a
home favorite the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which
they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average.(CLEVE)
The League is 0-10 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since December 01, 2002 at
home the week after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog in which they
committed 100+ yards of penalties. (OAK)
The League is 0-14 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since November 26, 2006
at home after a loss as a dog in which they were winning at the half.(OAK)
The League is 7-0 ATS (13.0 ppg) since December 05, 1993
as a dog the week after their completion percentage was at least
ten points lower than their season-to-date average as a TD+ road favorite ( INDY)
The League is 0-10 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since December 11, 2005 as a
road favorite the week after a game in which they got a first down
on at least 40% of their offensive plays. (NE)
The League is 0-8 OU (-9.8 ppg) since November 10, 2002 at
home after game seven when they are off a straight up home loss that
dropped them to 500 on the season. (TB)
The League is 0-11 OU (-12.4 ppg) since November 19, 2006
within 3 of pick on the road when they won their last two road games ( GB )
The League is 0-9 OU (-7.7 ppg) since November 20, 2006 as
a road dog versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up loss at home ( SF )
The League is 0-12 OU (-12.4 ppg) since October 01, 2001 at
home the week after a 7+ point win as a favorite in a game that was tied at the half ( cleve)
MTI'S TREND OF THE WEEK:
2007 NFL Report |
success is based on sound teaser philosophy and access to amazing
teaser trends. For example, The Ravens are 63-1 ATSp10 in franchise
history as a home favorite. That is, when used in a ten-point teaser, the
Ravens are 63-1 since they entered the league in 1996. That’s 98.4%
winners. When playing 10-point teasers it is important to use teams
that don’t get blown out. The Ravens simply do not get embarrassed
as a home favorite. Their ONLY ATSp10 loss came back in week 13
of the 2001 season. Since then they have covered 36 straight as a home
favorite with an extra ten points.
Other ten-point teaser trends include:
The Steelers are 32-0 ATSp10 the week after a game in which
their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their
season-to-date average.
The Eagles are 25-0 ATSp10 when they rushed for at least 50 yards
fewer last week than their season-to-date average.
The Giants are 26-0 ATSp10 on the road when facing a team that
has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date.
The Jets are 25-0 ATSp10 on the road when they covered by 10+
points last week.
The Rams are 25-0 ATSp10 vs a non-divisional opponent when
they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks.
The Panthers are 24-0 ATSp10 in franchise history at home when
their opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts per game is
greater than 35.
The Lions are 23-0 ATSp10 when they were up by at least a TD at
the half and won by double-digits last week at home.
The Chiefs are 23-0 ATSp10 as a 7+ favorite vs a divisional opponent.
Yes, the key to success when playing 10-point teasers is to look for
situations in which a team is going to be focused and unlikely to but
forth an effort that is significantly below the linesmakers’ expectations.
There are also good trends for totals in 10-point teasers. For example,
The Bears are 0-35 OUp10 after a loss in which they allowed
at least four sacks. That is, taking the OU line plus ten points and
going under has produced 35 straight winners when the Bears are off
a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks.
Taking the total the other way, we find that the Colts are 34-0
OUm10 as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent. That is, taking
the total down ten points and going OVER has produced 34 straight
winners when the Colts are a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent.
In addition:
The Falcons are 29-0 OUm10 as a 7+ dog when their opponent is
on a 2+ game winning streak.
The Cardinals are 28-0 OUm10 (+12.7 ppg) since September 24,
1989 as a road dog when they covered by 10+ points last week.
The Chargers are 27-0 OUm10 (+15.2 ppg) since October 31,
1999 when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards
per completion season-to-date.
The Seahawks are 27-0 OUm10 (+17.0 ppg) since December 18,
1994 as a home dog.
The Steelers are 0-24 OUp10 on Monday Night Football.
Note that this last teaser trend applies for next week when Pittsburgh
visits the Ravens.
With this information, it’s no surprise that MTi is making a killing
MTi’s Teaser Trends!!
Last week against the Saints, the 49ers allowed Drew Brees to
throw for four touchdowns and 336 yards on 31-of-39 passing.
San Francisco has a very difficult time recovering after a defensive
performance like this one. The 49ers are 0-8 ATS since November
18, 2001 on the road the week after a game in which they allowed
at least 300 yards passing, failing to cover by an average of 13.3 ppg.
San Francisco has lost every one of their last six in this situation by
double digits. The margins were -10, -32. -39, -17, -38 and -21 points.
Check out the game listing yourself at KillerSports.com by using the
SDQL, which is given below.
This week’s ATS Trend of the week indicates a play on the Falcons over the 49 ers
MTI 'S O/U TREND OF THE WEEK
Last week against the Titans, the Raiders had 32:37 of possession
time, held the Titans to only 11 first downs and outgained them
235 to 218 yards. Yet Tennessee won 13-9 laying a touchdown. The
loss dropped the Raiders to 2-5 on the season.
This is a strong UNDER spot for Oakland, as they are 0-9 OU
(-9.6 ppg) since November 20, 2005 the week after a loss in which
they outgained their opponent. In their last four games in this situation,
the Raiders have scored 14, 10, 9 and 3 points respectively. This
is the first active date for this team trend this season.
PRO FOOTBALL SYSTEM / Week #9
The league is 18-0 ATS
(+10.2 ppg) on the road when
they are off a loss in which
they converted less than 33%
of their third downs, as long as
they are not getting more than
8 points from the linesmaker.
SYSTEM ANALYSIS
The Broncos lost last week on Monday Night
Football 13-19 in overtime to the Green Bay
Packers. Although the Broncos accumulated 332
total yards, Green Bay’s defense was tough when
it needed to be. The Broncos converted only
3-of-10 third down attempts. This result makes
Denver a play-on team here. The league is 18-0
ATS (+10.2 ppg) on the road when they are off a
loss in which they converted less than 33% of their
third downs, as long as they are not an underdog
by more than 8 points.
This week the Broncos are a three point dog in
Detroit, which means that all of the parameters are met.
The Redskins also had trouble with third down
conversions last week vs New England, moving the
chains on only 2 of their 12 third down attempts.
Washington is on the road vs the Jets this week
and this qualifies them for this system, which has
produced three winners this season.
The reason for this is simple. Teams that
had trouble converting third downs and lost are
underestimated by the linesmakers — especially
if they are on the road. The problem with third
down conversions is usually the fault of the playcalling
and not the personnel on the field. Thus,
it is easily remedied the following week.
This week’s NFL system indicates a play ON
the Denver Broncos and ON the Washington
Redskins.
Sports
COLLEGE SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Play AGAINST a favorite
of 3 points or less off a SU
loss scoring 36+ points
and allowing less than 66 points
SYSTEM ANALYSIS
Last week’s PRO INFO SPORTS NCAA Football
POWER SYSTEM of the Week qualified
the North Texas Mean Green over Middle Tennessee
State and we suffered only our second loss
of the season on our College System of the Week
here in the Killer Sports Newsletter. Our season
to date record now stands at 6-2-1 ATS on our
College Football Power System of the Week.
For this week’s system we focused our efforts
on College Favorites and have found a very simple
but powerful system from the data bases at sportsdatabase.
com.
First, we have a team that had what could be
considered as a scoring explosion and still lost the
game. This team’s offensive unit provided what
they felt should have been enough points to win
almost any game and to walk away in defeat must
be demoralizing. Their defensive unit has suffered
an embarrassment by not only losing the game but allowingso many points to be scored
Our system shows that our “Play Against†team
has put their all into their last game both physically
and emotionally and has nothing to show for their
efforts. A closer examination of our system shows
that they not only fail to cover the spread but they
have failed to win the game outright in 22 of the
24 qualifying games and the last 14 straight.
This system had not qualified a play since 2004
until October 20th when Rice faced Memphis.
The previous week saw Rice put up 48 points
only to lose to Houston who scored 56 in the
win. In the qualifying game Rice lost to Memphis
outright 38 to 35 as a one point favorite to move
the system’s record to 0-23-1 ATS since 1992.
The University of Washington lost last week 48
to 41 to Arizona which sets up this week’s qualifying
game. With all the system parameters met
this week’s PRO INFO SPORTS NCAA Football
POWER SYSTEM of the Week qualifies Washington
as our “Play Against†team and Stanford as pur "PLAY ON " team of the week
MTi Sports Forecasting has a long record of success with NFL
teasers. In fact, it was NFL teasers that got them interested
in Sports Handicapping back in 1989. Since then, MTi Sports has
been a consistent winner with their NFL teasers year after year. Their
success is based on sound teaser philosophy and access to amazing
teaser trends. For example, The Ravens are 63-1 ATSp10 in franchise
history as a home favorite. That is, when used in a ten-point teaser, the
Ravens are 63-1 since they entered the league in 1996. That’s 98.4%
winners. When playing 10-point teasers it is important to use teams
that don’t get blown out. The Ravens simply do not get embarrassed
as a home favorite. Their ONLY ATSp10 loss came back in week 13
of the 2001 season. Since then they have covered 36 straight as a home
favorite with an extra ten points.
Other ten-point teaser trends include:
The Steelers are 32-0 ATSp10 the week after a game in which
their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their
season-to-date average.
The Eagles are 25-0 ATSp10 when they rushed for at least 50 yards
fewer last week than their season-to-date average.
The Giants are 26-0 ATSp10 on the road when facing a team that
has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date.
The Jets are 25-0 ATSp10 on the road when they covered by 10+
points last week.
The Rams are 25-0 ATSp10 vs a non-divisional opponent when
they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks.
The Panthers are 24-0 ATSp10 in franchise history at home when
their opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts per game is
greater than 35.
The Lions are 23-0 ATSp10 when they were up by at least a TD at
the half and won by double-digits last week at home.
The Chiefs are 23-0 ATSp10 as a 7+ favorite vs a divisional opponent
Yes, the key to success when playing 10-point teasers is to look for
situations in which a team is going to be focused and unlikely to but
forth an effort that is significantly below the linesmakers’ expectations.
There are also good trends for totals in 10-point teasers. For example,
The Bears are 0-35 OUp10 after a loss in which they allowed
at least four sacks. That is, taking the OU line plus ten points and
going under has produced 35 straight winners when the Bears are off
a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks.
Taking the total the other way, we find that the Colts are 34-0
OUm10 as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent. That is, taking
the total down ten points and going OVER has produced 34 straight
winners when the Colts are a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent.
In addition:
The Falcons are 29-0 OUm10 as a 7+ dog when their opponent is
on a 2+ game winning streak.
The Cardinals are 28-0 OUm10 (+12.7 ppg) since September 24,
1989 as a road dog when they covered by 10+ points last week.
The Chargers are 27-0 OUm10 (+15.2 ppg) since October 31,
1999 when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards
per completion season-to-date.
The Seahawks are 27-0 OUm10 (+17.0 ppg) since December 18,
1994 as a home dog.
The Steelers are 0-24 OUp10 on Monday Night Football.
Note that this last teaser trend applies for next week when Pittsburgh
visits the Ravens.
With this information, it’s no surprise that MTi is making a killing
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 2:33pm -
0 likes
MARC LAWRENCE PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB CFB pick
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This week's play from Marc's Perfect System Club:
11/3/07 - CFB REVVED UP HOME DOGS
PLAY ON any college conference home dog off back-to-back wins with
rest and revenge from Game Eight out if they won 7 > games last
season and won their last game by < 30 points.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 12-0
Play On: Oklahoma State
Rationale: home teams playing with rest and revenge off a win late in
the season play well with an week of rest. If they are are quality
team that did not catch the oddsmakers eye in their last game they
really respond in these situations.
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:25pm -
0 likes
NCoast Early Bird
Illinois -11
NCoast 4* Power Play (6-3 this year)
Tulane +7
Underdog Play
Alabama +7.5
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:25pm -
0 likes
***BIG GAME ALERT*** Ben Burns' Conference GAME OF THE YEAR ***5-2 YTD***
Conference USA Game of the Year
Memphis
Ben Burns' SEC MAIN EVENT (38-22 L60 MEs) ***NATIONAL TV***
Alabama
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:25pm -
0 likes
NCoast Comp. CUSA POW 6-2 this year
Memphis +5.5
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:26pm -
0 likes
greg roberts 7*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7* COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR:
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE +7
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:26pm -
0 likes
Sat, 11/03/07 - 12:00 Greg Shaker | CFB Side
triple-dime bet316 Northwestern -1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 315 Iowa
Analysis: NCAAF: Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats - Northwestern -1 -110 | Unit Value: 3 DIME "Big 10 Game of Year"Game Date: 11/3/2007
Note: The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a good effort last week at home to Michigan State but then again what is new. this team has been hard to beat at home but now they must travel again and that has not been what they have done well this year and previous years as well. Actually, we can lok at what they did and how they beat the Spartans to see that it was not as impressive as it might appear. They were outgained in that contest by a whopping 468 to 283 in total yards and out-firstdowned 23-12. Just 12 first downs is not going to win this game Saturday. The Hawkeyes will also enter this game with some injuries on defense and mostly in the secondary. Playing the spread offense of the Wildcats is not what they want to have to do considering this fact. Northwestern actually led Purdue in the 4th quarter last week before falling and the score is not indicative of what that game was all about. They allowed a defensive TD in the last quarter and were only outgained by a very good Boilermaker offense by 100 yards. Our team is close to being Bowl eligible and we can expect a concerted effort from them in this game. Iowa has yet to win on the road and in the process has scored just under 10 points per contest, with just 227 total yards per game and 74 on the ground. If you cannot run the ball away from home you are not going to be successful in most cases. The QB comparison Saturday is highly in our favor with Christensen completing barely over 50% of his passes this year. Northwestern's Bacher can be as good as anyone in the Big Ten and he should have his way with this banged up Hawkeye D. Too many Wildcat weapons will be on the field Saturday and in many more cases, Northwestern will win this matchup for the 3rd consecutive year.
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:26pm -
0 likes
JOE GAVAZZI’S
COLLEGE
PHP SIDES
5% ALABAMA
4% OKLAHOMA ST
4% VANDY
STEAMROLLERS
5% Illinois
3% KANSAS
3*% AIR FORCE
COLLEGE PRIVATE PLAYS
5* Rutgers (+2) over CONNETICUT
3* S Miss (-11) over UAB
3* Michigan (-3.5) over MICHGAN STATE
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:26pm -
0 likes
Kelso
Chairmans Club 25 unit = Ariz St +7.5 @ Oregon
Best Bets
5 units Cent Fla. -14 v. Marshall
4 units NC St +10.5 @ Miami (Fl)
3 units La Tech -3.5 @ Idaho
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:29pm -
0 likes
NCoast Comp. Big 12 POW
Oklahoma -21 over TAMU
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:29pm -
0 likes
Air Force is 16-2 in 18 games with Army and in 11 of those games have held the Cadets to 7 or less points.
Alabama is 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games with LSU.
California is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games with Washington State.
Florida, hosting Vanderbilt at homecoming, is 16-0 in its last 16 meetings with the Commodores and has won 18 straight homecoming games.
Iowa is 25-6 all-time against Northwestern but those six losses have come in the last 10 games.
Kansas State is 11-2 in its last 13 games with Iowa State and has won those games by an average of 32 points.
Maryland is 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games with North Carolina.
Michigan has won 5 straight games against Michigan State but the last four games in East Lansing have all been decided by 7 or less points.
Minnesota hosts Illinois at its homecoming and stands 6-1 in its last 7 meetings with the Fightin' Illini.
Missouri is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in its last 5 games at Colorado and stands 1-10 in its last 11 trips to Boulder.
Ohio State is 2-4 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last 6 games with Wisconsin.
Oklahoma is 7-3 SU but just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games with Texas A&M.
Oklahoma State is 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games with Texas.
Penn State is 8-2 in its last 10 meetings with Purdue.
Pittsburgh is 4-6 SU but 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games with Syracuse.
Rutgers is 2-3 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in its 5 meetings with Connecticut.
Southern California hosts Oregon State at homecoming and stands 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS in its last 9 games with the Beavers.
Syracuse is 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at Pittsburgh.
Texas Tech has won 11 straight games against Baylor, with the average winning margin in those games 33 points.
UCLA is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games with Arizona. This is Arizona's homecoming game.
Virginia is 19-1 in its last 20 games against Wake Forest.
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:29pm -
0 likes
Ryan's 7* CFB MONSTER release
Ryan won his last RARE7* MONSTER side with UNC as they covered easily against SC. Ryan’s 5* plays have hit 67% ATS L3 seasons and the 7* plays are even stronger.
Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan
Game: Nevada at New Mexico St. Nov 2 2007 8:00PM
Prediction: New Mexico St.
Reason: Ai Simulator 7* graded play on New Mexico State - AiS shows an 86% probability that NMST will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. As a team, the Wolf Pack is averaging 37.0 points a game and 491.0 yards of total offense. However, the Nevada defense for the Wolf Pack this season has been allowing 36.5 points a game and 405.9 yards of total offense. So, it stands to reason that NMST will rush the ball aggressively and this in turn will set up their passing attack where they enjoy numerous matchup advantages. I would not be surprised to see NMST get 400+ yards passing in this game and that will be based on being able to run the ball occasionally on 1st and 10. Just enough, say 3.0 YPC, to open up the passing attack that will be in a vulnerable cover 2 or even more vulnerable man coverage. Senior wide receiver Derek Dubois put together one of his best all around games for the Aggies this past weekend at Hawai’i. He finished the game with 218 all-purpose yards. His eight catches for 106 yards moved him into seventh place in receptions and eighth place in receiving yards on the career record lists with 123 receptions for 1,710 yards. Five of his catches this past Saturday went for first downs. Senior wide receiver Brandon Allen tied his career high with his six receptions for 40 yards against the Warriors last Saturday on the Islands. More importantly, the Aggies durable receiver increased his consecutive games with a catch streak to 40, the second longest active streak in the nation and he is just one game away from tying the Aggie record of 41 held by Duane Gregory from 1994-97. You will hear announcers Spillman and Sean McDonough sing their praises. I like the Aggies here and of course revenge doesn’t hurt them either.
posted by phantom
Nov. 2 2007 5:31pm -
0 likes
SERVICE REPORT
ATS Lock Club..............Game Of The Year: Oregon
......................................8*Miami(Ohio )
......................................6*Iowa State
......................................5*Rutgers & Penn State
......................................4*Colorado, TCU & Michigan
Big 10 Sports.................Ohio State
Brandon Lang................30*Kansas
......................................20*Northwest ern, C.Florida & BYU
......................................15*Oklahoma St, Tulane & Alabama
......................................10*Oregon & Oklahoma
Dave Cokin....................Under The Hat: Oregon
......................................Window Play: Oklahoma State
......................................System Play: NC State
.......................................Big Shot: Texas Tech
.......................................3*Boise St & Ohio State
Director..........................Top: Missouri
.......................................Regular: Air Force, Clemson, NC State 7 Navy
Frank Magliosa...............Idaho, Florida State, Rutgers & Colorado
Glem McGrew................SEC Game Of The Year: Alabama
Gold Sheet....................Top: Boise State
......................................Regular: NC State, Ohio State, Alabama, Memphis
Greg Roberts.................Game Of The Year: Alabama
Jim Feist........................Platinum Game Of The Year: Oklahoma State
......................................Inner Circle: Arizona
......................................Platinum: Cincinnati & New Mexico
......................................Personal Best: Toledo & Florida State
......................................5*Duke 3*Nebraska & Arkansas
Joe Gavazzi(PPP)..........Big East Game Of The Year: Rutgers
......................................3*Michigan & So.Mississippi
Kelso Sturgeon..............50*LSU
......................................25*Arizona State
Las Vegas Sports...........10*Indiana, UTEP, So Florida & Notre Dame
Lenny Stevens................Big East Game Of The Year: Rutgers
.......................................20*Michigan State
.......................................10*Navy, Oklahoma State & Florida State
Northcoast(Small Coll)....3*Toledo
Northcoast(Totals)...........4*Vandy/Fla(O)
.......................................3*EC/Memphis(O) & A&M/Okla(U)
Pointwise.......................4*Ohio State & USC
Purlock...........................Navy
Rocketman.....................Duke, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin & So.Mississippi
Sebastian.......................Oregon
Texas Sports Brokers....10*Notre Dame 5*Nebraska
Tony Scott.....................Game Of The Year: Virginia
VIP Lock Club................1000% BYU
Wayne Root...................Game Of The Decade: Colorado
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 11:56am -
0 likes
Sebastuan
300* Oregon -7.5 (buy to 7 if possible)
10* Miami Ohio , Kansas , Vandy , Iowa St, BYU
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 11:58am -
0 likes
ATS Lock Club
25 units on Oregon (-7 1/2) over Arizona State, 6:45 - Lock of the year
8 units on Miami-Ohio (-6 1/2) over Buffalo, 3:00
6 units on Iowa State (+15 1/2) over Kansas State, 12:30
5 units on Rutgers (+1 1/2) over Connecticut, 7:00
5 units on Penn State (-8) over Purdue, 12:00
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 11:58am -
0 likes
Jim Feist
Mountain West GOY
BYU
Glenn McGrew
SEC Game of Year
ALABAMA
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 11:59am -
0 likes
Feist
5* Duke
4* Nebraska
3* Ark
Inn. Cir. AZ
Plat GOY Okla st
Plat Cinci
Plat New Mex
Personal best Toledo
Personal best Flr St
Total pur/psu UNDER
Sprietzer
5* Stanford (early value game)
5* Az
4* UL-MON
TKO Tulane
TKO Bama
KO Flr st
KO Toledo
KO BYU
Heavy hitter GOY/SM Insider OKLA
Dog pound Okla st
Dog pound Idaho
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 11:59am -
0 likes
Asa
6.5 STAR
OHIO ST. (7-2) last 5 stars or higher
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:00pm -
0 likes
Michael Cannon
Saturday's Late Plays...
40 Dime -
MICHIGAN
5 Dime -
ALABAMA
Saturday's Early Plays...
25 Dime -
VANDERBILT
5 Dime -
TROY
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:00pm -
0 likes
Northcoast;
4 0ver Vanndy-flordia 50
4 Notre Dame
4 U S C
4 So. Miss.
3 Ohio St.
3 S. Flordia
3 Virg.
3 U L Monroe
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:05pm -
0 likes
Big Al's Plays
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At 3:30 pm, our Big 12 Revenge Game of the Year is on Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys look to snap a nine-game losing streak to the Longhorns. Okie State falls into several of my best systems, with records of 104-51, 47-13, 77-30, 40-10, 62-25, 33-9, and 26-0 ATS. Let's take a look at our 33-9 ATS system. Here, we want to play on any rested home underdog (or Pk) off back-to-back wins, at Game 6 of the season or later, that's matched up against an unrested foe. Two weeks ago, Oklahoma State beat then-No. 25 Kansas State 41-39 for its fourth win in five games, and the Cowboys won 45-14 two games back vs. Nebraska. Also, Texas struggles on the road vs. rested teams, as the 'Horns are a poor 18% ATS since 1980 in this role when priced from -20.5 to +2 points. Take Oklahoma State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 3-game TV package on Saturday, or my Big Chalk Blowout of the Month, or my 20-0 ATS System Winner.
Our 3 selections include Rutgers, California and Florida State.
At 7:15 pm, on ESPN-U, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights plus the points over UConn, as the Huskies are in a terrible situational spot following their last three games which they covered as an underdog (vs. Virginia, Louisville and South Florida), winning their last two outright. But winning College football teams off three straight pointspread wins as an underdog are 0-17 ATS since 1980 vs. conference foes if they're favored by less than 13 points (or Pk). Take Rutgers.
At 8 pm, on ABC TV, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles plus the points over Boston College. The BC Eagles are unbeaten, but now fall into a nasty 9-40 ATS situation, as unbeaten teams that start the season with 5+ wins, are horrid vs. revenging foes off a SU win, if our unbeaten team is priced from -5.5 to -20 points. Last year, BC went into Tallahassee and upset the Seminoles 24-19, but look for Bobby Bowden's men to avenge that loss with an upset here. Take the points.
At 10 pm, on Fox Sports Net, our selection is on the California Golden Bears minus the points over Washington State. Jeff Tedford's team has dropped three straight, but should break out of its funk here vs. Wazzu. The Bears fall into a 55-31 ATS angle that plays on double digit home favorites, at Game 7 forward, off back to back ATS losses. And if our team is on a 3-game or worse losing streak, then our 55-31 stat moves to 11-2 ATS. Look for the Bears to rout the Cougars. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Big Chalk Blowout of the Month, or my Conference Revenge Game of the Year, or my 20-0 ATS System Winner.
At 5 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide plus the points over LSU, as Nick Saban's crew falls into a super 20-0 ATS system. What we want to do is play on any rested, revenging home team, at Game 9 of the season or later, if our home team is off a win, priced from +7 to +16.5 points, and matched up against a foe whose win percentage is .700 or better. Two weeks ago, Alabama upset Tennessee 41-17 as a home dog for its third straight win, and now Saban's men seek to snap their four-game losing streak to LSU. The Tigers have dropped five straight games to the spread and easily could be on a 3-game losing streak, had they not come back to win against Florida and Auburn at home. Alabama is a solid 7-3-1 ATS as home dogs since 1998 vs. a foe off a win, and we'll grab the points with the Crimson Tide on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Conference Revenge Game of the Year, my Big Chalk Blowout of the Month, or my 3-Game TV Package on Saturday.
At 8 pm, our Big Chalk Blowout of the Month is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas A&M, as Bob Stoops men fall into a super 42-11 ATS system that pinpoints when certain big favorites will blowout their opponent. What we want to do is play on any home/neutral site favorite of -9 or more points, that's off back to back wins of 9+ points, if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game, and also did not register a pointspread win two games back. And, if our big favorite failed to cover its spread by 6 or more points the previous game, and is now favored by 13+ points, then our 42-11 system improves to an almost perfect 17-1 ATS since 1980. Also, Texas A&M is an awful 5-22 ATS since 1996 on the road off a home game, if they're playing a .500 or better foe. Take Oklahoma. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 3-game NCAA Football package, or my 20-0 ATS System Winner, or my Conference Revenge Game of the Year.
At 8:35 pm, our Central Division Game of the Month is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Milwaukee. The Bulls have started 0-2, and now have to go on the road to take on their Central Division rival, the Milwaukee Bucks. This is a great spot for Scotty Skiles' men, as winless teams are 81.1% ATS on the division road in the first four games of a season, provided they i) won at least 34 regular season games the previous year, and ii) are not playing without rest vs. a rested foe. Look for Chicago to break into the win column this Saturday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:05pm -
0 likes
Accu-Pick
5* Memphis
4* S Carolina
4* S. Miss
3* Fla. St.
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:06pm -
0 likes
BURNS
Main event Alabama
CUSA GOY Memphis
ACC GOM Virgina
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:07pm -
0 likes
Wolkosky Milan
197-151-8 last seventy days
2-4 Yesterday
Today:
10* OKLAHOMA STATE +3
10* INDIANA -7
10* ALABAMA +7
10* TEXAS TECH -20½
10* MARYLAND +2½
10* COLORADO +4
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:07pm -
0 likes
Welcome to All Star Selections
Your Football Selections for Saturday November 3rd is:
NCAA Football
5* Take Miami (-10.5) over N.C. State
3* Take Florida State (+6.5) over Boston College
3* Take Troy State (+16) over Georgia
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:08pm -
0 likes
Northcoast Late Phones
4* ND -3
4* USC -15
4* So Miss -10-1/2
3* Ohio St -16
3* USF -5
3* Virginia pk
3* UL Monroe +3-1/2
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:09pm -
0 likes
Lenny Stevens
20 big east goy rutgers
20 mich state
10 navy
10 okie state
10 fla state
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:11pm -
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Kelso 50 *
LSU -7
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:11pm -
0 likes
SERVICE REPORT
ATS Lock Club..............Game Of The Year: Oregon
......................................8*Miami(Ohio )
......................................6*Iowa State
......................................5*Rutgers & Penn State
......................................4*Colorado, TCU & Michigan
Big 10 Sports.................Ohio State
Brandon Lang................30*Kansas
......................................20*Northwest ern, C.Florida & BYU
......................................15*Oklahoma St, Tulane & Alabama
......................................10*Oregon & Oklahoma
Dave Cokin....................Under The Hat: Oregon
......................................Window Play: Oklahoma State
......................................System Play: NC State
.......................................Big Shot: Texas Tech
.......................................3*Boise St & Ohio State
Dave Malinsky................4*Northwestern & Vanderbilt
Director..........................Top: Missouri
.......................................Regular: Air Force, Clemson, NC State 7 Navy
Frank Magliosa...............Idaho, Florida State, Rutgers & Colorado
Glem McGrew................SEC Game Of The Year: Alabama
Gold Sheet....................Top: Boise State
......................................Regular: NC State, Ohio State, Alabama, Memphis
Greg Roberts.................Game Of The Year: Alabama
Guarantee Picks............Toledo
Jim Feist........................Platinum Game Of The Year: Oklahoma State
......................................Inner Circle: Arizona
......................................Platinum: Cincinnati & New Mexico
......................................Personal Best: Toledo & Florida State
......................................5*Duke 3*Nebraska & Arkansas
Joe Gavazzi(PPP)..........Big East Game Of The Year: Rutgers
......................................3*Michigan & So.Mississippi
Kelso Sturgeon..............50*LSU
......................................25*Arizona State
Las Vegas Sports...........10*Indiana, UTEP, So Florida & Notre Dame
Lenny Stevens................Big East Game Of The Year: Rutgers
.......................................20*Michigan State
.......................................10*Navy, Oklahoma State & Florida State
Northcoast.......................Game Of The Week: Notre Dame
........................................4*USC & So.Mississippi
........................................3*Ohio State, Virginia, So.Florida & UL-Monroe
Northcoast(Small Coll)....3*Toledo
Northcoast(Totals)...........4*Vandy/Fla(O)
.......................................3*EC/Memphis(O) & A&M/Okla(U)
Pointwise.......................4*Ohio State & USC
Purlock...........................Navy
Rocketman.....................Duke, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin & So.Mississippi
Sebastian.......................Oregon
Sports Unlimited............4*Virginia
Texas Sports Brokers....10*Notre Dame 5*Nebraska
Tony Scott.....................Game Of The Year: Virginia
VIP Lock Club................1000% BYU
Wayne Root...................Game Of The Decade: Colorado
Winners Path.................Blowout Game Of The Year: BYU
......................................PAC 10 Game Of The Year: Arizona State
......................................Central Florida
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:17pm -
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Neri
5* Illinois
4* Toledo
3* Clemson, Penn State, Oregon, Ohio State
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:17pm -
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Alatex-20* Oklahoma St
posted by phantom
Nov. 3 2007 12:19pm -
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SERVICE REPORT
ATS Lock Club..................7*New England & Dallas
..........................................5*Washin gton
..........................................4*Detroi t
.........................................3*Denver & Kansas City
..........................................NBA: 4*Boston
Brandon Lang...................50*Kansas City
.........................................25*San Diego & Cleveland
.........................................15*Indian apolis, Jacksonville & Arizona
.........................................10*Detroi t & Philadelphia
Dave Cokin........................Under The Hat: Dallas
..........................................Window Play: Washington
.........................................System Play: Buffalo
..........................................Big Shot: Houston
.........................................3*Kansas City & New England
.........................................NBA: Denver & Boston
Director Sports..................NYJets, New England, Kansas City, SMU
..........................................NBA: Boston
"Doc".................................4*Kansas City
Doctor Bob........................4*Houston
..........................................3*Indian apolis & Philadelphia
Frank Magliosa..................Detroit & Philadelphia
Guarantee Pick..................Atlanta
Jim Feist...........................Platinum Game Of The Year: Philadelphia
.........................................Inner Circle: San Francisco & Detroit
.........................................Personal Best: Buffalo & Washington
.........................................5*Carolin a 4* Jacksonville 3*Arizona
.........................................NBA Inncer Circle: Char/Miami(O)
.........................................NBA Personal Best: L.A.Clippers
Joe Gavazzi(PPP).............5*Jacksonville & Den/Det(O)
.........................................3*Detroit , Indianapolis, Hou(Oak(U) & Sea/Cle(O)
Las Vegas Sports..............10*Tampa Bay, Jacksonville & Oakland
Lenny Stevens..................Sunday Night TV Game Of The Year: Philadelphia
..........................................20*Kansa s City
.........................................10*Atlant a, Cleveland & Houston
LT Profits...........................NYJets, Buffalo & Minnesota
Northcoast.........................3.5*Washington
..........................................3*San Diego & Arizona
Pointwise..........................4*Denver
Purelock............................NFL: Green Bay
..........................................NBA: L.A.Clippers
Randy Radtke....................Kansas City, Denver, Philadelphia, San Fran, Indy
Rocketman........................4*Kansas City
..........................................3*NYJets & Arizona
Sebastian..........................100*NE/Indy(U)
..........................................50*Kansa s City
Texas Sports Brokers........10*Philadelphia 5*Houston
VIP Lock Club...................250% Jacksonville
Wayne Root......................Billionaire: Minnesota
.........................................Millionai re: Indianapolis
.........................................Perfect Play: Kansas City
.........................................No Limit: Philadelphia
.........................................Money Maker: Carolina
.........................................Chairman Of The Board: NY Jets
Winners Path....................Tennessee & Jax/NO(U)
posted by phantom
Nov. 4 2007 1:00pm -
0 likes
Final FADE Report
Play Seattle-Cleveland under 46 1/2; Got 8-0 services on the Over
Play Seattle +2; Got 16-6 services on the Browns
Play Raiders -2 1/2 (buy 1/2 pt if you have too); Got 14-5 services on the Texans!!!! I personally don't like this play, but its a fade play and I will play it small!!!!
I ended up with 20-19 services on the Colts. I'm teasing the Colts +12 with the Eagles +9 1/2.
Good Luck if you tag along
Krunch
posted by phantom
Nov. 4 2007 3:31pm -
0 likes
ATS 2 (8-3) over
BEN BURNS 1 (3-3) (2-1) UNDER
BIG AL 5 (0-1) (1-1) MONDAY NIGHT GOY PITTSBURGH
BILL BAILEY 3 (0-3) (3-2) 50 pittsburgh
BANKER 4 (1-0) (6-1) 500 AFC MONDAY NIGHT GOY PITTSBURGH
BRANDON LANG 2 (20* 3-5) (1-3) 25 PITT
CASH 2 (0-1) (2-1) (2-6) PASS
COACHES CORNER 2 (0-1) (4-2) PASS
COWTOWN (4-6)
COMPUTER KIDS 2 (6-3) PASS
DAVE COKIN 2 (0-1) (7-6) 3 baltimore
DOLPHIN (5-5)
DIAMOND STAR 3 (0-1) (2* 5-1) under
DIRECTOR SPORTS 3 (7-4) under
DOC ENTERPRISES 3 (2-6) baltimore
DOCTOR BOB 4 (1-0) PASS
EXPERT 1 (3-6) PITTSBURGH
FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (5-4) BALTIMORE
FINAL SCORE 1 (7-3) UNDER
GAME DAY 4 (2* 0-1) OPINION pitt
GARDEN STATE 3 (2* 4-4) baltimore
GOLD SHEET 3 (1-3) PASS
GUARANTEED 2 PASS
INSIDERS EDGE (40* 2-0) (30* 4-2)
INSIDE STEAM 4 (0-1) (3-4) over
INSIDE INFO 4 (2* 2-3) 1 pittsburgh
JB SPORTS 3 (0-1) (1-4) PASS
JEFF CLINE 2 (1-0) PASS
JIM FEIST 2 (3-1) (3-3) BALTIMORE
KELSO STURGEON 2 (10* 2-8) 10 pittsburgh
LENNY STEVENS 2 (20* 1-0) (5-6) pitt and under
LT PROFITS 2 (2-4) under
LV INSIDERS CLUB 4 (400% 0-1) (4-3) OVER
LV LOCKLINE 4 (25* 4-4) under
LV SPORTS 2 (1-2) PASS
MAGLIOSA 2 (2-3) BALTIMORE
MAXWELL 2 (6-4) OPINION pitt
MIKE NERI (1-8)
MILLIONAIRES (0-1)
NORTHCOAST 1 (2* 3-5) 2 pittsburgh --- MARQUEE over
NY SPORTS (8* 0-1) (6-1)
POINTWISE 3 (3-4) pittsburgh
POINTSPREAD MAVEN 3 (10* 2-2) (2-2) over
POWER PLAYS 2 (2-6) BALTIMORE
PLATINUM 2 (2-9) baltimore
PREFERRED PICKS 4 (3* 0-4) 4 BALTIMORE
PRIMETIME (4-4)
PRIVATE INVESTORS 2 (3-4) PASS
PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 1 (3-4) 1* OPINION pittsburgh and under
PURE LOCK 2 (0-1) PASS
RAIDER 2 (0-1) (2-4) PASS
RANDY RADTKE (0-3) (0-1)
REED HARRIS 3 (6-8) PASS
SCORE 4 (2-6) 200 pittsburgh
SCOTT SPREITZER 3 (2-0) (4-2) over
SILVER STAR (10* 0-1) (2-2) (8* 2-1)
SLAM DUNK 2 (1-7) PASS
SOLID GOLD PICK 2 (2-4) PASS
SPORTS GURU 3 (40* 0-1) (4-3) baltimore
SPORTS ANALYST 1 (3-2) pittsburgh and over
SPORTS AUTHORITY 4 (0-1) (3-4) (0-1) PITTSBURGH
SPORTS BANK (500* 0-1) (2-3) (0-3)
SPORTS DOCTOR 4 (0-1) (3-3) 50 pittsburgh
SPORTS INVESTORS (9* 0-3) (8* 2-3)
SPORTS NETWORK 2 (8-11) pitt and over
SPORT TRENDS 2 (2-4) pittsburgh
SPORTS UNLIMITED (0-1) (2-4)
STATISTICIAN 2 (0-1) (90* 4-1) (0-2) PITTSBURGH
SUPER LOCK 2 (3-6) PASS
SUPER SYSTEMS 2 (3-5) BALTIMORE
SWAMI 2 (5-3) PASS
TOUCHDOWN CLUB (1-0) (4-3)
THE INSIDER 2 (0-1) (2-1) PITTSBURGH
TIPPS 2 (1-1) (3-6) PASS
TOMMY THUNDER 3 (3-6) under
TONY WRIGHT (3* 5-4)
TOP DAWG 2 (3-1) PASS
TRU-LINE 2 (1-2) PASS
UNDERDOG 3 (0-1) PASS
UNIVERSAL 2 (2-3) PASS
USA SPORTS 2 (4-3) PASS
VEGAS CONNECTION 4 (6-0) (0-1) 2 PITTSBURGH
VEGAS PIPELINE 2 (2-7) pittsburgh
WAYNE ROOT 2 (3-5) CHAIRMAN pittsburgh
WILDCAT (7* 0-2) (5* 2-1)
WINDY CITY 4 (8* 2-6) OVER
WINNERS PATH 2 (0-1) (0-2) PASS
WISE GUYS 3 (2* 4-4) under
WIZARD 2 (1-8) PASS
VIP SPORTS 2 (1-0) PASS
BOB BALFE (6-3)
UNDERDOG SPORTSLINE 2 (3-2) PASS
SEBASTIAN 3 (100* 2-0) (6-3) 20* TEASER pitt and over
ROCKETMAN 2 (0-2) PASS
ED SLICK 3 (1-4) pitt
THE COACH 3 (1-0) (2-4) under
R&R TOTALS 2 (0-1) PASS
SHARP TOTALS 2 under
DR CHAD 3 (4-4) baltimore and over
posted by phantom
Nov. 5 2007 7:36pm