Aaah...it's almost that time again. Everyone is deep in football, the Baseball season is winding down, hockey has fired up, the holidays are coming, snow is around the corner, and college hoops returns. I have my first play for you locked and ready to go in the Valley. But first my analysis of the season:

The Valley is in a state of flux. I have never seen so much change in so little time:

New coaches abound with no less than 50% of the league going to new coaching regimes.

So much talent graduated: Funk and Danzler from Creighton, Franklin and Taui from Bradley, 4 year starter Brooks McCowan and all valley big man Grant Stout for Northern Iowa, SIU Player of the Year Jamal Tatum and a slew of others.

Notable coaching changes include Grant Marshall coming over from Winthrop to Wichita State..who I'm sure you know about if you fill out brackets in March.

Correction: Falker is back for SIU which is huge for the Salukis.

Predictions for the Valley part II:

#5: Illinois State

#4: Wichita State

#3: Creighton

#2: SIU..with falker back this team is a defensive juggernaut

#1: Northern Iowa

Dropping out: Indiana State..they lost a key recruit and they have the tools, but word in Illinois is to expect big things from the Redbirds in the Chicago Invitational. TOD...I'll meet ya there?

Nugs to consider when gambling on the Valley this year:

***Bradley has one of the best 1,2 guard combinations in the country in Daniel Ruffin and Jeremy Crouch. Crouch led the Valley in 3pts scored and 3pt % last year. They will be running early and often this season. There big men are very athletic. Play on the over in Bradley early in the year if the other team is athletic.

**Missouri State is a huge question mark for me. They have talent but Barry Hinson goes 20 wins plus last two years and doesn't make the dance. They got a brutal non conference..if they lose their first..roll on Mo State as a dog against Arkansas early in the year. But as for the Valley, I'm staying away until I get a better read on the team. Traditionally an over team, this year has a lot of new players offensively but a solid returning defensive core.

**Wichita State should be tough to beat early. They have enough returning talent to make a run at the Virgin Islands Jam. I will have a good sized play on the Baylor/Shockers tilt in Mid November. I think your going to be surprised at how well the Shockers are playing defense come Valley season. Don't be afraid to go hard on the under in the Valley against anyone but Bradley and Evansville when the Shockers are playing.

**Creighton lost 4 starters and a load of talent..but don't be afraid to back them. Altman left for Arkansas and came back home and that alone is reason to believe. They have the top recruiting class in the Valley and a big time player in P'Allen Stinnet...think a taller Jameer Nelson. I will be backing Creighton and the over in non conference in some key games that should shape Creighton's NCAA resume or bust it open as a "rebuilding" year.

**Evansville is absolute garbage. Play the 2H overs on them as they will continually be playing from behind with athletic, but young players. This team lost 3 1000 point scorers, 4 starters, 92% of their scoring, and were still garbage last year. New coach, new system, but same result..The Aces are in the cellar.

key games I'm playing:

The battle of Nebraska (NU @ CU) 11-24

St. Joseph's @ Creighton 12-9

Nevada @ N. Iowa 12-22

GOY: (Barring injuries) Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois 2-02

Drake @ Chicago State 12-7

Mo State @ Arkansas 12-3

Mo State @ Alabama 12-22

Ill. State @ Mo State2-2

Bradley @ Wich State 1-26

I'm really looking forward to the season. Here's my first posted play of the year for Gotpicks in the Valley:

Play #1 on Gotpicks NCAA 2007-2008

No line yet but roll on SIU to dominate Northern Illinois from the MAC on November 17'th.

The logic:

Northern Illinois finished a solid 7-23 last year...AND LOST 4 STARTERS.

New coach Ricardo Patton comes in from Colorado..you know the Same Buffs school that set a record for points allowed while floundering at the bottom of the Big XII for 2 the last 4 years under his tenure.

NIU has nine...9....nine...(Bueller?) Freshman on the roster.

So let's put all that in perspective...Ricardo patton has a brand new coaching staff, no returning talent, likes to run and gun (which is a nightmare in the Valley)and is a proven loser at a bigger school. So, he gets (hopefully) 3 games in a warm up tourney in Cedar Falls Iowa and then has to roll over to Carbondale for a game against Mo Valley Giant SIU. Falker and Shaw will absolutely dominate the inside and you can't tell me NIU is going to be more athletic. The Salukis might hold them to under 40 points while scoring 65 or more. As long as the line is under 24 points, roll on SIU to absolutely crush NIU on November 17'th. There are so many good reasons to back the Saluki's. Last year's 9-1 ATS run non conference. The return of Falker and Shaw coupled with Mullins at PG makes the Salukis tough and talented in one breath. I can't see NIU or a new team with a new coach with a new style trying to play with SIU. Should be an easy win for us. If I see 20 or lower when it opens I'm jumping immediately. SIU and big numbers are usually not a good idea, but this game should hit nicely for us.

SIU -- the points November 17'th against Northern Illinois

I will update when I get a line on the game.

**Disclaimer..if the line is above 24 I will look at it again. But I'm predicting low 20's or high teens to open.

Good luck this year fellas. My first weekly post on gotpicks in hoops. Hope you have a good season whatever you roll.