NEWSLETTERS FOR WEEK OF 10/24

Confidential Kick-Off!!

The Gold Sheet!!

Americaâ€™s Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!

CKO Vol. 46 October 25-29, 2007 No. 9

11 *NEW ENGLAND over Washington

Late Score Forecast:

*NEW ENGLAND 38 - Washington 10

(Sunday, October 28)

About the only thing the Patriots have done wrong this season (aside from that little deal about videotaping coaches) is to lose their focus while blowing out the Dolphins last week. After backup QB Matt Cassel tossed a sloppy interception that went for a Miami TD to make the score 42-21 with 10:30 left in the fourth quarter, HC Bill Belichick re-inserted QB Tom Brady (27 TDP in 7 games!), who quickly restored order with his sixth TDP of the game. Don't anticipate that type of passing ease vs. defensively-tougher Washington. However, that move speaks to Belichick's insistence that his players remain focused, even after their torrid 7-0 start (6-1 vs. the spread). While the Redskins will yield TDs more grudgingly than Miami, a struggling offense (160 total yards last week)--cursed by OL injuries--will cause their "D" to wear down, while the N.E. "D" will continually be spurred by the Pat fans.

10 *FRESNO STATE over Boise State

Late Score Forecast:

*FRESNO STATE 34 - Boise State 27

(Friday Night, October 26)

They're back! Indeed, after a brief downturn, Pat Hill's Fresno State bunch (on 4-game win streak) is ready once more to participate in lively WAC turf wars with the conference elite such as Boise. Only we're not convinced Broncos are head-and-shoulders above the rest of league contenders as they were last season, especially with Chris Petersen's defense suddenly springing all sorts of leaks, exposed fore and aft by Nevada and allowing normally sluggish La Tech to gain nearly 500 yards at Ruston. That's a red flag for Boise vs. rejuvenated Bulldog attack that has settled on effective OL combo after spate of early-season injuries, allowing dynamite true frosh RB Matthews (6.5 ypc) room to ramble and providing necessary protection for QB Brandstater (only 3 picks), who's now more confident with downfield throws.

10 NORTHWESTERN over *Purdue

Late Score Forecast:

NORTHWESTERN 38 - *Purdue 37

Northwestern has all the elements necessary to make this game much closer than the double-digit spread, so no shock to see the upset. Wildcat QB C.J. Bacher has been as productive and efficient as any QB in the country the last three weeks, throwing for 1351 yards and 10 TDs with only 1 int. while completing just over 70%. Dynamic Northwestern HC Pat Fitzgerald will have no problem motivating his Wildcats, who stand 5-3 SU and become eligible for one of the Big Ten's bowl bids with their next victory. Respect Purdue's attack, led by solid QB Curtis Painter, but the Boiler defense is vulnerable to Bacher and his wide array of targets (at least 9 different players caught passes in each of the last 3 games). Purdue's 2ndary yielded 377 YP to Notre Dame and 364 to Central Michigan and Bacher very capable of more.

10 *TEXAS over Nebraska

Late Score Forecast:

*TEXAS 47 - Nebraska 13

Things could hardly be worse at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have lost three straight, yielding 41 ppg. The rebuilding defense (ranked 105th, down by Toledo and Marshall!) can't stop the run, and therefore is vulnerable to the pass. HC Bill Callahan has new AD Tom Osborne, representing the pride of the Husker nation, looking over his shoulder. And NU has failed to cover its last 7 games. Texas, meanwhile, is looking for a sharper performance than last week, when Colt McCoy tossed two interceptions at Baylor, missed a wide-open receiver in the end zone, and lost his cool to draw a personal foul penalty. CKO scouts say the Longhorns are near delirious to finally be back home for the first time in a month. And they intend to re-establish their dominance in Austin after their sloppy 41-21 loss vs. K-State (which had three long return TDs) in their last home game. Look for the heady McCoy to rebound and for no mercy for discouraged NU.

10 *HAWAII over New Mexico State

Late Score Forecast:

*HAWAII 59 - New Mexico State 21

The smoke has cleared after a sometimes wild ride through first half of season, and Hawaii has emerged with its BCS hopes and dreams of an unbeaten season intact. And now, Warriors are refreshed after needed "bye" week WAC sources believe was just what doctor ordered for QB Brennan to shake nagging ankle woes. That's bad news for NMSU, which welcomed back its own QB (Chase Holbrook) last week vs. Idaho. But offensive balance remains a pipe dream for Hal Mumme's Air Raid, and Aggie stop unit deficiencies hard to camouflage vs. more potent offenses on slate (New Mexico, Auburn, and Boise already combined to score 52 ppg). Expect June Jones' squadron of fleet wideouts to run wild as they usually do at Aloha Stadium, where UH is a solid 9-4 last 13 laying DDs.

TOTALS: UNDER (40Â½) in the New Orleans-San Francisco game--SF scoring 13 ppg, and with QB Alex Smith nursing his injured throwing shoulder and RB Frank Gore knocked out Sunday by a sprained ankle, a 4th straight "under" at Monster Park is likely...OVER (44) in the Detroit-Chicago game--Bears on 20-8-1 "over" run; Detroit 2-1 "over" on road, where Lion games have averaged 57 total points.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): BALL STATE (+13Â½) at Illinois--Ball State & QB Nate Davis are 11-1 vs. the number last 12 on the road...VANDERBILT (-13Â½) vs. Miami-Ohio-Vandy covered 4 of last 5 and slapped around MAC representative Eastern Michigan here in Vanderbilt Stadium a month ago. NORTH CAROLINA STATE (+3) vs. Virginia--Home team 5-0 SU & vs. the number last 5 in this series, and small home dogs (1-3 pts.) 14-8 this year...KANSAS STATE (-24Â½) vs. Baylor-Broken Baylor offense generating more chances and points for opponents than for themselves lately...BUFFALO (+3) at N.Y. Jets-NY not getting what they want offensively from Pennington, while Bills' Trent Edwards' 2-1 mark as a starter has HC Dick Jauron smiling.

posted by phantom

Oct. 23 2007 3:06pm

57 replies

0 likes

GOLD SHEET

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28

Cleveland 28 - ST. LOUIS 20--With St. Louis injured at T, G, QB, RB & WR for a substantial portion of the season, it's Cleveland (28 ppg)--not the Rams--that has the high-flying offense this season, with QB Derek Anderson (14 TDP), WR Braylon Edwards (7 TDP), and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. (29 recs.). St. Louis (0-7) off to its worst start since the 1-12-1 Bob Waterfield/Harland Svare team of 1962. Battered QB Bulger endured 3 more ints. in last week's 33-6 smashing in Seattle.

(03-St. Louis -4' 26-20...SR: EVEN 10-10)

CHICAGO 31 - Detroit 16--First in-season revenge game of the NFL season, and Bears are guaranteed to be ready for this one after giving up an NFL-record 34 fourth-Q points in first meeting, blowing a 13-3 lead to lose 37-27! That was Brian Griese's first start for the Bears, and he contributed to the deluge with a key int. TD. Even though Chicago RB Cedric Benson (long run of only 16 yds. TY) a massive disappointment, Lions' recent road performances (losses by combined 90-24 tally at Philly & Wash.) point strongly toward Bears. Chicago "over" 4 of last 5 TY; 20-8-1 last 29.

(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)

(06-CHI. 34-Det. 7...C.22-15 C.34/89 D.14/46 C.21/28/0/294 D.23/30/0/199 C.1 D.3)

(06-Chi. 26-DET. 21...C.22-18 C.30/116 D.18/67 D.27/45/0/260 C.26/45/0/238 C.0 D.1)

(07-DETROIT +2' 37-27; 06-CHICAGO -8 34-7, Chicago -5' 26-21...SR: Chicago 87-63-5)

Indianapolis 24 - CAROLINA 23--Will this game pair Peyton Manning vs. 43-year-old Vinny Testaverde? Vinny has 271 TD passes. While Peyton has 285 (plus the Jacksonville game) in about half the time. Carolina's pass rush (only four sacks!) way down TY, and Manning nearly unsackable, due largely to his quick reads. Still, Colts not a pointspread powerhouse as a road favorite (1-6-1 last 8 prior to Monday nighter vs. Jags). How much will that game vs. very physical Jacksonville and the short turnaround take out of the defending champs?

(03-Carolina +5 23-20 (OT)...SR: Carolina 3-0)

NY Giants 28 - Miami 24--Will a change of continents help winless Miami? (Remember, Dolphins are unbeaten at new Wembley Stadium!) Perhaps, as even though Miami continues to lose, the development of Cleo Lemon at QB in Cam Cameron's offense (59 points last two games) and increasing contributions of Ohio State rookie WR/KR Ted Ginn, Jr. suggest better days might be coming soon. Powerful veteran RB Jesse Chatman (73 YR last week) a serviceable fill-in for Ronnie Brown (check knee injury). Giants gleefully riding five-game winning streak. Will they take Miami too lightly on their NFL-provided "vacation" trip across the pond (DE Osi Umenyiora was born in London)? (at London, England)

(03-Miami +1 23-10...SR: NY Giants 3-2)

TENNESSEE 28 - Oakland 10--Will Kerry Collins (25 of 42, 280 YP; led last week's winning drive at Houston) start against his former team of 2004-05? One thing that is clear Tennessee's defense (14 ppg until last week's 36 at Houston) is vastly improved over LY (25 ppg in 2006; who needs Pacman?). Oakland's rush defense has often proven leaky TY, and its rush offense (54 ppg last two) has come to a near halt. Daunte Culpepper has been contained by S.D. & K.C. the last two weeks (24 total points). Titans a contender--with or without Vince (check status). (05-Oakland -1 34-25...SR: Oakland 27-17)

MINNESOTA 20 - Philadelphia 17--First meeting of Philly HC Andy Reid vs. his former off. coord. Brad Childress. Minny's erratic pass rush and coverage has helped produce the NFL's lowest-ranking pass defense (through Week Six). But Vikes' top-ranked ground assault (thanks to Adrian Peterson's 670 YR) likely to afford them valuable ball control, especially with ever-forceful G Hutchinson punching holes in the Eagles' DL. Philly 3-7-1 last 11 as road favorite; OL has allowed 25 sacks! What's up with that?

(04-PHILADELPHIA -3 27-16, PHILADELPHIA -8 27-14 (Playoffs)...SR: Minnesota 11-10)

Pittsburgh 24 - CINCINNATI 16--Steelers have covered last six visits to Cincy. And they got much healthier during their bye week a game ago, with WRs Ward & Holmes and SS Polamalu all returning last week in Denver, where Pittsburgh virtually gave the game away with early turnovers. Cincy, meanwhile, can't seem to keep its OL or LBs healthy, and those are bad areas in which to be hurting vs. the visitors' zone blitz & RB W. Parker (600 YR), respectively. The lowly Jets had the hurtin' Bengals on the carpet last week until Cincy's unlikely 21-point, 4th-Q outburst. Steelers made of sterner stuff.

(06-Cincy 28-PITT 20...P.27-15 P.38/170 C.25/87 P.18/39/3/195 C.18/26/2/159 C.1 P.2)

(06-Pitt 23-CINCY 17 (OT)...P.29-15 P.45/207 C.16/44 P.19/28/1/275 C.20/38/0/251 P.1 C.0)

(06-Cincinnati +2 28-20, Pittsburgh +6 23-17 (OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 44-30)

Buffalo 23 - NY JETS 20--Bills' rookie QB Trent Edwards won his first NFL start vs. these Jets four weeks ago, 17-14 in Buffalo. This time it's his first road start. Still, can't trust revenge-minded, but troubled 1-6 N.Y. (1-5-1 vs. spread) to cover even a small spread these days. Bills' defense has fought through early-season injuries to play with considerable competence (18 ppg last 3), as backup DBs have proven to be better than advertised. Buffalo 9-3 last 12 getting points.

(07-BUF. 17-NY Jets 14...N.20-19 B.28/86 N.19/60 N.32/39/2/286 B.22/28/1/218 B.1 N.0)

(06-Jets 28-BUF. 20...B.26-15 B.31/169 N.24/74 B.22/39/1/306 N.19/29/0/182 N.0 B.2)

(06-Buf. 31-JETS 13...N.16-14 B.34/174 N.30/132 B.10/15/0/144 N.22/35/2/143 B.1 N.1)

(07-BUFFALO +3' 17-14; 06-NY Jets +5' 28-20, Buffalo +4 31-13...SR: Buffalo 52-42)

SAN DIEGO 26 - Houston 21--Chargers feeling much better about their 1-3 start after they won two straight heading into their bye week, with HC Norv Turner trying to ease the tension by giving his players a day at practice wearing their old college jerseys. And recently-acquired Dolphin WR Chris Chambers familiar with the offense, which was taken to Miami by new HC Cam Cameron, S.D.'s former offensive coordinator. But Chargers are without stalwart C Nick Hardwick (foot) several weeks, and probably Pro Bowl NT Jamal Williams (knee) as well. And Texans' short-lived comeback last week from 32-7 deficit shows Houston a willing, tough-to-conquer foe.

(04-San Diego +5 27-20...SR: San Diego 2-0)

Jacksonville 20 - TAMPA BAY 10--Tampa Bay doing what it can to bolster injury-depleted RB corps (vets Michael Bennett & Zack Crockett added last week). But even at full strength, not sure Bucs able to budge DTs Stroud & Henderson and Jag "D" that's been virtually impenetrable vs. run since the opener. Jeff Garcia not throwing any picks, but he's not exactly lighting up the scoreboard (Bucs only 14 ppg last 3). And Jacksonville's David Garrard (no picks first 5) not making many mistakes, either. His supporting cast (especially hot RB Jones-Drew) more likely to score deciding points.

(2007 Preseason: Jacksonville -4' beat Tampa Bay 31-19 at Jacksonville)

(03-JACKSONVILLE +3' 17-10...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)

New Orleans 20 - SAN FRANCISCO 13--Not sure wins over mistake-prone Seattle & flawed Atlanta constitute a buy signal for N. O., which isn't the same on attack minus Deuce McAllister's between-the-tackles toughness. And we'd usually rather watch C-SPAN than lay points with unreliable Saints (0-4 as chalk TY, 2-11 last 13 in role). But N.O. now has new hope in NFC South after consecutive wins, while punchless S.F. (less than 200 yards 4 of first 6; 10 ppg last 4) sure not scoring its way out of 4-game slump. Doubt possible return of QB Alex Smith a remedy, especially with WRs still not getting much separation from DBs, and OL continuing to labor.

(06-N. ORL. 34-S. Fran. 10...N.23-10 N.41/190 S.15/57 N.17/28/0/185 S.14/28/3/145 N.0 S.0)

(06-NEW ORLEANS -7 34-10...SR: San Francisco 45-21-2)

NEW ENGLAND 34 - Washington 10--While Patriots were raising their scoring average to 40 ppg with 49 last week in Miami, Redskins were starting three backups in their OL and generating only 160 total yards in their narrow 21-19 over sore-elbowed Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. Worse yet for Washington, Bill Belichick was angry with his team's 28-point allowance to the Dolphins. Redskin defense ranks high vs. the pass, but CBs Carlos Rogers (sprained knee) & Fred Smoot (hamstring) might not be 100%. N.E. 7-0 vs. number; 6-1 "over" in 2007. Skins only one "over" TY!

(03-WASHINGTON -3 20-17...SR: Washington 6-1)

MONDAY, OCTOBER 29

*OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 30 - Green Bay 23--Even though Denver was the beneficiary of some handy early turnovers last week vs. Pittsburgh, it was obvious Jay Cutler had benefited from some extra "class work" during the Broncos' bye week, as he completed 22 of 27 with 3 TDP vs. the Steelers often tough-to-read defense. And credit WRs Marshall & Stokley and TE Scheffler for being reliable targets. Kudos to G.B. for its surprising 5-1 start. But is it not true Packers would be 3-3 if Philly could field punts and Santana Moss could hold onto the ball? Poor ground game hurts G.B. in this one, with Denver going "over" for eleventh time in last 12 games! CABLE TV--ESPN

(03-GREEN BAY -9 31-3...SR: Denver 6-4-1)

MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

Green Bay and Denver on Monday Night

Green Bay is 14-18 straight-up and 17-14-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;

10-7-1 straight-up and 9-9 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.

Denver is 18-9-1 straight-up and 11-16-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;

5-19 straight-up and 8-15-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-07)

Favorites vs. Pointspread

Favored by 1-6Â½ points Won 85, Lost 89, Tied 4

Favored by 7 points or more Won 33, Lost 26, Tied 2

Total Favorites Won 118, Lost 115, Tied 6

Home Teams vs. Pointspreads

Home Team Favorite Won 84, Lost 85, Tied 6

Home Team Underdog Won 30, Lost 33

Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0

Total Home Team Won 115, Lost 118, Tied 6

2007 MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS

Cincinnati -2Â½ beat Baltimore 27-20 at Cincinnati o40

San Francisco -3 beat Arizona 20-17 at San Francisco u45

Washington +6Â½ beat Philadelphia 20-12 at Philadelphia u39

Tennessee +4Â½ beat New Orleans 31-14 at New Orleans n45

New England -7Â½ beat Cincinnati 34-13 at Cincinnati u53Â½

Dallas -10 beat Buffalo 25-24 at Buffalo o45

NY Giants -4 beat Atlanta 31-10 at Atlanta u43Â½

HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 1999 (not necessarily Mon. night)

2003 Reg. Seas.: Green Bay -9 beat Denver 31-3 at Green Bay

1999 Reg. Seas.: Denver +3Â½ beat Green Bay 31-10 at Denver

NFL KEY RELEASES

CHICAGO by 15 over Detroit

TENNESSEE by 18 over Oakland

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

OVER THE TOTAL in the Green Bay-Denver game

NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS

All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.

TOTAL HOME AWAY

TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA

Arizona 9 2 3-4 4-2-1 4-3 21-22 2-1 18-20 2-1 23-25

Atlanta 10 1 1-6 4-3 2-5 14-22 1-2 19-25 3-1 10-20

Baltimore 6 2 4-3 1-6 2-3 18-17 1-2 23-13 0-4 14-20

Buffalo 10 3 2-4 4-2 2-4 14-22 4-0 19-17 0-2 5-32

Carolina 6 2 4-2 4-2 2-4 21-18 0-2 14-27 4-0 24-14

Chicago 7 3 3-4 2-5 4-3 20-24 0-3 20-26 2-2 19-22

Cincinnati 7 3 2-4 3-3 4-2 27-31 2-1 26-28 1-2 29-34

Cleveland 9 3 3-3 4-2 5-0 28-31 3-1 32-31 1-1 21-30

Dallas 1 3 6-1 5-2 5-2 32-23 3-1 33-26 2-1 32-18

Denver 7 1 3-3 1-5 5-1 18-27 1-3 18-28 0-2 18-26

Detroit 10 4 4-2 3-2-1 3-3 23-29 2-0 27-20 1-2 20-37

Green Bay 6 3 5-1 4-1-1 4-2 24-18 2-1 21-20 2-0 29-15

Houston 10 2 3-4 3-4 5-2 24-25 2-2 26-23 1-2 22-28

Indianapolis -2 4 5-0 3-2 3-2 33-18 3-0 37-15 0-2 26-22

Jacksonville 4 3 4-1 3-2 2-3 20-12 1-2 20-12 2-0 20-11

Kansas City 9 4 4-3 4-2-1 2-5 15-16 1-1 16-16 3-1 14-17

Miami- 14 2 0-7 1-4-2 5-2 22-33 0-3 22-40 1-1 23-28

Minnesota 10 2 2-4 2-2-2 2-4 19-19 1-1 20-13 1-1 19-22

New England -7 5 7-0 7-0 6-1 40-17 3-0 37-13 4-0 42-21

New Orleans 7 2 2-4 1-5 2-3 17-25 0-3 16-21 1-2 17-30

NY Giants+ 4 3 5-2 5-2 4-2 27-21 3-1 24-19 2-1 30-24

NY Jets 12 2 1-6 1-5-1 4-2 19-27 0-2 18-27 1-3 21-28

Oakland 12 3 2-4 2-4 4-2 21-23 0-3 19-24 2-1 23-23

Philadelphia 6 3 2-4 2-4 1-5 19-17 1-2 28-20 1-2 11-14

Pittsburgh 4 4 4-2 4-2 3-3 27-13 3-0 28-6 1-2 25-20

St. Louis 16 3 0-7 1-6 1-6 11-27 1-2 20-26 0-4 5-29

San Diego 4 3 3-3 3-3 4-2 23-20 2-1 19-16 1-2 26-24

San Francisco 12 2 2-4 2-3-1 2-4 13-23 1-1 10-16 1-2 16-29

Seattle 8 4 4-3 3-4 2-5 20-15 2-2 24-15 1-2 14-16

Tampa Bay 8 4 4-3 3-3-1 2-5 18-16 2-0 23-9 1-3 14-21

Tennessee 5 2 4-2 4-1-1 1-4 22-18 1-1 20-18 3-0 23-18

Washington 8 3 4-2 2-2-2 1-4 20-15 1-2 22-15 1-0 17-15

College Analysis

KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES

Home team in CAPS. *â€”indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. Pâ€”Pick Game. SRâ€”Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NLâ€”No Line. OPRâ€”Average Opponentsâ€™ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().

Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HCâ€”Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). â€œOâ€â€”Offense. â€œDâ€â€”Defense. DDsâ€”Double Digits. OLâ€”Offensive Line or Lineman. DLâ€”Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.â€”Offensive Coordinator. d.c.â€”Defensive Coordinator. YRâ€”Yards Rushing. YPâ€”Yards Passing. recs.â€”Receptions. ints.â€”Interceptions. STsâ€”Special Teams. ypgâ€”Yards per Game. ppgâ€”Points per Game. ypcâ€”Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LYâ€”Last Year. TYâ€”This Year. Yâ€”Year or Years. TDPâ€”Touchdown Passes. FAâ€”Free Agent. SUâ€”Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 25

*Boston College 21 - VIRGINIA TECH 19--Revenge-minded Virginia Tech is nothing if not resourceful, winning 6 of its first 7 despite a very containable offense that ranks No. 112 in nation. BC attack much more potent, as stellar sr. QB Ryan rates HUGE edge over Hokie counterparts T. Taylor, a still-learning true frosh, and jr. Glennon, who's struggled against quality defenses. Veteran Eagle stop unit is one, as BC has permitted just 46 ypg rushing while picking off 18 passes (both tops in nation). CABLE TV--ESPN

(06-BOS. COL. 22-Va. Tech 3...B.16-14 B.34/90 V.28/33 B.16/29/0/174 B.23/34/2/148 B.0 V.2)

(06-BOSTON COL. +2' 22-3 05-VA. TECH -13' 30-10...SR: Virginia Tech 9-4)

*Air Force 24 - NEW MEXICO 23--UNM a pretty formful bunch under Rocky Long, including routinely underachieving as Albuquerque chalk (just 2-7 last 9 in role). And AFA has had Lobos' number lately, winning last 3 meetings. Falcs have chance to extend series mastery, especially with vet "D" executing d.c. DeRuyter's blitz packages, and "O" keeping enough of Fisher DeBerry's old option in playbook to spring hybrid RB/WR Hall (423 YR last 2!).

(06-A. FORCE 24-N. Mex. 7...A.18-13 A.62/262 N.31/41 N.16/30/1/232 A.3/6/1/19 A.0 N.2)

(06-AFA -13' 24-7 05-Afa +12' 42-24 04-AFA -3 28-23...SR: Air Force 14-9)

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 26

*FRESNO STATE 31 - Boise State 30--Like Vinny Testaverde, the "old" Fresno apparently is back, and Pat Hill's macho bunch in position to reprise old WAC turf war vs. Boise. Like Bulldogs' chances now that frosh RB Matthews (another 144 YR vs. San Jose) continues to provide proper infantry diversion for QB Brandstater, allowing hosts to do some business vs. suddenly-leaky Bronco "D." CABLE TV--ESPN2

(06-BOISE ST. 45-Fsu 21...B.23-11 B.47/300 F.26/102 B.19/25/1/180 F.12/24/1/121 B.0 F.0)

(06-BSU -22' 45-21 05-FSU -9 27-7 04-BSU -9 33-16...SR: Boise State 5-4)

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 27

South Florida 27 - CONNECTICUT 16--Can't sell home-lovin' Huskies short, as they've covered 11 of last 15 at "Rentsch" (including 6 of 7 as dog). Still, South Florida possesses more speed than UConn on both sides of ball. And Bulls not only have top offensive threat on field in never-say-die soph QB Grothe, but also most dynamic defender in sackmeister soph DE Selvie (nation-leading 21Â½ tackles for loss!).

(06-S. FLA. 38-Conn. 16...C.19-18 S.41/205 C.26/60 C.20/40/1/201 S.13/16/0/153 S.0 C.0)

(06-USF -6' 38-16 05-CONN. +7 15-10...SR: South Florida 3-1)

WISCONSIN 27 - Indiana 24--Wisconsin's dismantling of injury-riddled N. Illinois was much-needed confidence-builder. But Hoosier QB Kellen Lewis had his best passing day of the season against stout Penn State "D" and WR James Hardy has already surpassed his yardage & TD numbers from last season. If Lewis can avoid turnovers, Indiana has a shot to snap Badgers' 12-game Camp Randall win streak.

(06-Wis. 52-IND. 17...W.26-21 W.46/209 I.33/167 W.18/23/1/330 I.13/30/0/113 W.1 I.2)

(06-Wisconsin -10' 52-17 05-WISCONSIN -17' 41-24...SR: Wisconsin 33-18-2)

PURDUE 38 - Northwestern 34--Purdue defense shut down Iowa's depleted attack last week, but dynamic Northwestern QB Bacher figures to give Boilermakers all they can handle. Wildcats 6-2 last 8 as a road dog, while Purdue just 3-8 last 11 laying points at home. Respect Boiler QB Painter, but red-hot Bacher (1351 YP, 10 TDP, only 1 int. last 3 games) can more than hold his own.

(06-Purd. 31-N'WSTRN 10...P.28-12 N.42/168 P.28/62 P.36/52/1/448 N.9/15/1/83 P.0 N.0)

(06-Purdue -7 31-10 05-Nwu +7' 34-29 04-NWU +10 13-10...SR: Purdue 48-25-1)

WAKE FOREST 27 - North Carolina 26--Carolina RS frosh QB Yates can't afford many mistakes against opportunistic Wake stop unit, which has returned 6 of its 21 takeaways for TDs. But if he's careful, young Tar Heels have enough weapons & defense to hang with Deacons, who have covered just 1 of last 13 laying 4 or more points.

(06-W. For. 24-N. CAR. 17...N.18-15 W.40/200 N.40/134 N.19/30/2/236 W.7/8/0/89 W.0 N.1)

(06-Wfu -8 24-17 04-Unc +5' 31-24...SR: North Carolina 67-33-2)

LOUISVILLE 36 - Pittsburgh 17--New Louisville HC Kragthorpe thus far unable to continue predecessor Petrino's money-making ways at Papa John's, where Cards are 0-3 vs. spread TY after covering 16 of previous 18 as host. Still, can't ignore huge experience edge L'ville's NFL-caliber sr. QB Brohm (9744 YP & 65 TDP in college career) has over touted Pitt true frosh Bostick (769 YP & 4 TDP).

(06-Lvl. 48-PITT 24...P.22-20 L.31/162 P.24/70 L.21/29/0/337 P.32/51/3/328 L.1 P.1)

(06-Louisville -10' 48-24 05-LOUISVILLE -20' 42-20...SR: Louisville 6-4)

ILLINOIS 34 - Ball State 26--Illinois offense hit some bumps against Iowa & Michigan, as QB Juice Williams' passing deficiencies have been exploited. Ball State has covered 11 of last 12 on road, and Card QB Nate Davis has collected 20 TDs vs. just 3 ints. this season, throwing for 780 total yards in his last 2 road games (at W. Mich. & Nebraska). (FIRST MEETING)

FLORIDA STATE 31 - Duke 17--Sure, seething Seminoles would love to clout someone after losing 2 straight conference games. But is FSU (just 3-13 last 16 as home chalk!) capable of running up score on improving Duke (8-2 last 10 as road dog)? Devils' soph QB T. Lewis has 16 TDP TY; 'Nole counterparts Lee & Weatherford have combined for only 9.

(06-Fla. St. 51-DUKE 24...F.21-19 F.21/157 D.40/52 F.23/40/3/321 D.19/41/0/255 F.1 D.2)

(06-Fsu -23 51-24 05-Fsu -29' 55-24 04-FSU -30' 29-7...SR: Florida State 15-0)

MICHIGAN 45 - Minnesota 14--Can't see backing defenseless Gophers facing chemistry-rich Michigan side riding 6-game win streak. Granted, Wolverines have disappointed laying double digits (1-4 last 5), but even if QB Henne (shoulder/wrist injuries; check status) and RB Mike Hart (rested injured ankle last week) aren't ready to go, doubt Gophers can contain deeper host.

(06-Mich. 28-MIN. 14...Mc.23-18 Mc.45/234 Mn.24/108 Mc.17/24/0/284 Mn.17/34/0/215 Mc.0 Mn.0)

(06-Mich. -9' 28-14 05-Minn. +7' 23-20 04-MICH. -3' 27-24...SR: Michigan 68-24-3)

AUBURN 38 - Mississippi 13--Although Auburn off devastating last-second loss at LSU, look for superior Tigers to vent frustration vs. defensively-soft Ole Miss (ranked 97th) depressed following 44-8 home blowout vs. Arkansas. Containable Rebel offense switched back to erratic QB Schaeffer after starter Adams threw 4 ints. vs Hogs. Auburn's punishing ground assault overpowers Ole Miss' yielding front 7 (207 ypg, 4. 7 ypc).

(06-Aub. 23-MISS. 17...A.25-15 A.41/175 M.28/86 A.21/34/1/253 M.9/17/2/170 A.1 M.0)

(06-Auburn -18' 23-17 05-AUBURN -20' 27-3 04-Auburn -16' 35-14...SR: Auburn 23-8)

MISSOURI 46 - Iowa State 10--With Mizzou trailing Kansas in Big XII North, don't look for any let-up by fiery QB Daniel and home-lovin' Tigers (9-1-1 vs. spread last 11 at Columbia). Iowa State--116th in scoring at only 15 ppg in these days of spread-the-field pyrotechnics--unlikely to keep pace with MU's spread-option, which ran for 212 yds. in last week's 41-10 rout of Texas Tech despite the absence of starting RB Tony Temple.

(06-IOWA ST. 21-Mo. 16...I.23-22 I.48/196 M.24/90 M.29/44/0/310 I.15/27/1/153 I.0 M.1)

(06-ISU +13' 21-16 05-MO. -6 27-24 (OT) 04-Mo. +4' 17-14 (OT)...SR: Missouri 57-33-9)

VANDERBILT 31 - Miami-Ohio 13--Vandy's confidence soaring following historic upset at South Carolina ('Dores hadn't beaten team as highly-ranked since 1937!). So, don't mind bucking offensively-limited Miami-Ohio (thin at RB due to injuries, lacks true go-to WR) lacking firepower to hang with Vandy, whose offense now sparked with insertion of athletic 6-2 soph QB M. Adams. Look for 'Dores all-star WR Bennett (46 catches) to go wild after season-low 2 grabs week ago. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

BUFFALO 23 - Akron 20--Buffalo has never beaten Akron, but this is the best Bull team the Zips have faced. Buffalo QB Drew Willy is coming off a 286-yard passing game at Syracuse and hasn't thrown an int. in last 3 games. RB Starks has 12 TDs this year & gained 5.3 ypc in last 3 games. Akron attack ranks 114th. as soph QB Jaquemain still learning.

(06-AKRON 31-Buf. 16...A.16-13 A.37/144 B.36/98 A.14/21/0/274 B.15/24/1/150 A.1 B.1)

(06-AKRON -17 31-16 05-Akron -10 13-7 04-AKRON -9 44-21...SR: Akron 8-0)

Central Michigan 34 - KENT STATE 19--CMU QB Dan LeFevour has completed 72% for 815 yds. & 9 TDs in last 3 games, and expect Chippewa defense, which yielded 70 pts. vs. Clemson, to bounce back strong now that it's back in the MAC. Kent State suffered a huge blow when QB Edelman broke his arm late in the Bowling Green game. Edelman's clever decision-making was responsible for much of the success Flash RB Jarvis has enjoyed. Coaches are considering starting true frosh G. Morgan at QB, as backup Magazu was on crutches (ankle) vs. BG. Also note Kent's -10 TO count, 3 true frosh starters on "D" and Chips 9-2 SU mark last 11 as a MAC visitor. (04-C. MICH. +1' 24-21...SR: CMU 21-9)

KANSAS STATE 44 - Baylor 9--Payback time for potent K-State (38 ppg in Big XII play) vs. conference "have-not" Baylor, whose backup QBs Machen & Weed tossed four ints. vs. Texas last week after starter Szymanski & RS frosh Beatty threw four the previous week at Kansas! Wildcat QB Freeman (404 YP last week at Ok. State) coming off his best game, fierce HC Prince has his team well-unified, and KSU has 11 def. & STs TDs in his 1+Ys.

(06-BAY. 17-Kan. St. 3...B.13-12 K.21/45 B.19/18 K.22/55/3/296 B.26/47/1/294 B.3 K.2)

(06-BAYLOR +1' 17-3...SR: Kansas State 5-1)

Kansas 27 - TEXAS A&M 21--Should be furious battle between Big XII North leader KU and South co-leader A&M, with quick Jayhawk QB Reesing (17 TDP, 4 ints.; from nearby Austin) facing Aggie option ace McGee (711 YR). Magical KU now 7-0 SU (6-0 vs. spread) for best start since 1968, while A&M 10-3 its last 13 at home, with the losses by 4, 1 & 1 points! Jayhawks' two road wins TY by 7 (at K-State) & 5 (at Colorado).

(06-Tex. A&M 21-KANSAS 18...T.20-10 T.31/146 K.27/113 T.25/45/0/240 K.14/32/0/175 T.1 K.1)

(06-Texas A&M -1' 21-18...SR: Texas A&M 7-1)

TEXAS TECH 41 - Colorado 17--Bad time for youthful CU to be catching TT. Red Raiders steaming about last week's 41-10 loss at Missouri, not to mention LY's defeat in Boulder. Despite its periodic defensive shortcomings, TT 21-7-1 vs. spread when on the line immediately after a straight-up loss under HC Mike Leach. CU QB Hawkins has 15 TDs vs. 12 ints., while Red Raiders' Harrell is 32 & 7, and will be focused after suffering 4 picks last week.

(06-COLO. 30-Tex. Tech 6...C.20-14 C.46/228 T.15/31 T.29/45/3/245 C.12/19/0/152 C.2 T.2)

(06-COLORADO +7 30-6...SR: EVEN 4-4)

WYOMING 27 - Unlv 10--A bit reluctant to lay points with Wyo bunch that's suddenly its own worst enemy (5 TOs last week at Air Force) and might have an unwanted QB controversy brewing after mistake-prone starter Sween was pulled in favor of backup Hetrick vs. Falcs. But fading UNLV (lost last 4) up to its old tricks, and allowing nearly 500 yards vs. sluggish CSU a sign that Reb "D" starting to buckle after encouraging early work.

(06-Wyo. 34-UNLV 26...W.19-12 W.39/89 U.23/59 W.19/27/2/197 U.19/37/1/162 W.0 U.2)

(06-Wyo. -9' 34-26 05-WYO. -18 42-17 04-Wyo. +3' 53-45 (OT)...SR: UNLV 8-7)

TULSA 51 - Smu 32--Can't trust either defense, as each giving up nearly 40 points & 500 ypg. Tulsa has failed to cover its last 5, but SMU 1-6 SU & vs. spread, as scouts say HC Bennett on tenterhooks in Dallas. Golden Hurricane sr. QB Paul Smith (21 TDP) has more reliable supporting cast than Mustangs' soph triggerman Willis.

(06-SMU 34-Tulsa 24...S.21-20 S.34/179 T.36/126 T.22/30/0/230 S.11/19/0/190 S.0 T.1)

(06-SMU +6 34-24 05-TULSA -14' 20-13 04-SMU +11' 41-35 (OT)...SR: SMU 10-4)

TULANE 31 - Memphis 27--Don't want to overreact to Tulane's OT win at troubled SMU. However, no surprise if clever Green Wave HC Toledo able to pound away at soft Memphis rush "D" with record-setting sr. RB Forte (1129 YR, 12 TDs last 5!), keeping Tigers' potent aerial attack idling on sidelines for extended periods. (04-MEM -23' 49-24...SR: Mem 14-11-1)

OREGON 31 - Southern Cal 24--Concede defensive edge to SC stop unit that, if Mel Kiper Jr. is to be believed (and we trust Mel), might have as many as four NFL first-round picks for next April's draft in its ranks. But remain unconvinced Trojans' uprising at Notre Dame an indication that all is well again with offense. Much prefer o.c. Chip Kelly's more-creative Oregon attack that will provide SC "D" by far its biggest challenge to date. Many Trojan sources worried that Duck QB Dixon capable of burning Pete Carroll's often overaggressive defenders, reminiscent of Vince Young's old Rose Bowl magic.

(06-S. CAL 35-Oregon 10...O.25-21 S.28/167 O.40/102 O.30/48/1/256 S.16/27/3/176 S.0 O.1)

(06-USC -8 35-10 05-Usc -21 45-13...SR: Southern Cal 36-15-2)

Louisiana Tech 24 - UTAH STATE 17--USU more competitive than a year ago, and covering some pointspreads (4-2 last 6), but not sure we have the nerve to pick spot where Utags actually break their 13-game losing streak. La Tech upgraded as well under new HC Dooley, and doubt scatter-armed USU QB L. Jackson can exploit improved Bulldog "D" as did Boise QB Tharp last week.

(06-LA. TECH 48-Utah St. 35...L.21-18 L.47/344 U.36/124 U.12/28/2/249 L.13/18/0/226 L.1 U.0)

(06-LTU -6 48-35 05-Ltu -7 27-17...SR: EVEN 2-2)

Arizona 28 - WASHINGTON 21--Washington fading as quickly as Joe Biden's presidential hopes, dropping 5 straight (1-4 vs. points). As long as HC Mike Stoops doesn't explode (literally), cast a vote for UA, which owns a vet "D" capable of stopping this level of opponent. Can't say as much for sloppy-tackling U-Dub stop unit that's allowed 44 or more in 3 of last 4. Frosh RB Grigsby had 126 YR in featured role vs. Stanford & gives Wildcat offense a potent weapon facing Huskies. Note definitive underdog trend (covered last 9!) in series.

(06-Wash. 21-ARIZ. 10...A.17-16 W.40/154 A.24/M7 A.24/41/1/308 W.14/26/1/293 W.0 A.0)

(06-Wash. +3' 21-10 05-Wash. +13 38-14 04-Ariz. +1' 23-13...SR: Washington 17-5-1)

EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - Western Michigan 23--Prefer to take points with EMU side that got a decent performance from true frosh QB McMahon (282 YP; 44 YR; 2 rush TDs) filling in for Andy Schmitt (shoulder; check status) vs. N'western. WMU QB Hiller threw 3 ints. at home vs. Ball State, and ragged Bronco "D" has twice blown leads late in 4th Q in MAC play this year.

(06-W. MICH. 18-E. Mich. 15...E.18-17 W.35/178 E.32/65 E.22/39/2/220 W.18/32/0/150 W.2 E.0)

(06-WMU -15 18-15 05-Wmu -3' 44-36 04-Emu +3' 35-31...SR: W. Michigan 26-13-2)

EAST CAROLINA 32 - Uab 23--Supporting UAB a dicey proposition, as Blazers in midst of wide-scale youth movement under new HC Callaway. Big offensive edge to ECU, but Pirates have permitted 39 ppg in previous 5, and 7 of last 8 victories came by fewer than 14 points.

(06-UAB 17-E. Car. 12...U.22-20 U.42/124 E.27/96 E.20/38/1/280 U.17/23/0/199 U.3 E.2)

(06-UAB -6' 17-12 05-ECU +5 31-23...SR: UAB 4-2)

Florida 30 - Georgia 26--Although Florida's Tebow-led spread attack is groovin', young Gator defense still a work in progress. Therefore, points worth considering with rested rival UGA, which has the offensive weapons to trade all the way. Dawgs versatile, maturing 6-3 soph QB Stafford (only 13 of 33 with 2 ints. in LY's game) primed to atone for that lackluster effort, and dazzling backfield mate RB Moreno (619 YR, 5.2 ypc) will provide Stafford lots of 3rd-and-short situations. Last 5 in rivalry decided by total of just 28 pts. (widest margin 7), and UGA 6-2 last 8 as dog. (at Jacksonville, FL) TV--CBS

(06-Fla. 21-Ga. 14...F.15-14 F.35/156 G.26/64 F.14/28/1/163 G.13/33/2/151 F.1 G.3)

(06-Fla. -13' 21-14 05-Fla. -4 14-10 04-Ga. -7 31-24 all at Jack...SR: Georgia 45-37-2)

Michigan State 23 - IOWA 17--Potent MSU attack was held without an offensive TD against Ohio State. But Spartans have covered 4 of last 5, and QB Hoyer (11 TD passes, only 4 ints.) and RB Javon Ringer (726 YR last 4 games) eager to get 5-3 MSU bowl-eligible before schedule gets tougher. Depleted Iowa offense has scored more than 20 points just once this season and only 23 in last 3 combined. (04-IOWA -7 38-16...SR: Iowa 19-17-2)

MARYLAND 26 - Clemson 19--Maryland defense owns enough athleticism in defensive front 7 to control Clemson running game without "selling out" and exposing itself to Tiger QB Harper's passing. Terp sr. RBs Ball (5.5 ypc, 6 TDs last 3 games) & Lattimore (90 ypg rushing) a potent offensive pair. Clemson a bit of a bully, scoring 52 ppg (and getting 13 of Harper's 19 TDP) vs. non-conference foes La.-Monroe, Furman & C. Michigan. Maryland "D" will bring Tiger attack back to ACC-level reality.

(06-Mary. 13-CLEM. 12...M.18-16 C.41/143 M.28/54 C.18/27/0/251 M.23/35/1/247 M.0 C.0)

(06-Mary. +18' 13-12 05-Clem. +2 28-24 04-CLEM. -3' 10-7...SR: Clemson 29-24-1)

Virginia 20 - N. CAROLINA ST. 19--In a college football season full of surprises, 7-1 Virginia's resurgence has gone largely unnoticed. Conservative Cavs doing it with rushing & defense, however, so points might work with N.C. State now that jr. QB Evans (335 YP & 3 TDP last week) has regained some confidence. Five of UVa's last 6 wins have been by total of 11 points!

(06-VA. 14-N. Car. St. 7...V.16-12 V.37/125 N.29/70 N.21/35/1/220 V.12/22/0/131 V.0 N.0)

(06-VIRGINIA -1' 14-7...SR: North Carolina St. 32-21-1)

TEXAS 46 - Nebraska 16--Virtually forced to lay the lumber with Longhorns, as Huskers have now failed to cover last 7 games TY! NU's totally-rebuilt front four generating little pass-rush pressure and has also been battered by the run (more than 300 YR each of last two games, both at Lincoln). Bill Callahan's future in serious doubt with Cornhusker icon Tom Osborne taking over as AD. UT's first home game in a month. TV-ABC

(06-Texas 22-NEB. 20...T.21-15 T.34/128 N.24/38 N.16/29/1/302 T.25/40/0/220 T.1 N.2)

(06-Texas -5' 22-20...SR: Texas 8-3)

NEVADA 48 - Idaho 22--Who would have guessed that Nevada would be storing QBs like the U.S. military does its nuclear weapons, as Chris Ault's Pistol has posted video game-like numbers (1831 yards & 139 points last 3!) since Vince Young-like RS frosh QB Kaepernick replaced injured starter Graziano. That's bad news for fading Idaho bunch (no covers last 5) that has been taken to woodshed (outscored 107-21 last 2!) by Wolf Pack lately.

(06-Nevada 45-IDAHO 7...N.27-11 N.49/222 I.24/93 N.17/27/1/195 I.12/21/1/116 N.0 I.3)

(06-Nevada -10 45-7 05-NEVADA -8' 62-14...SR: Nevada 15-9)

MARSHALL 42 - Rice 41--There are very few good (serviceable?) defenses in C-USA, and these are two of the league's worst. Rice has allowed a staggering 1319 yards in just last 2 games! But yielding Marshall unable to keep Owl QB Clement (9 TDP last 3 games) from trading points. (FIRST MEETING)

Utah 24 - COLORADO STATE 23--Not to get carried away by a win at UNLV, but now that snakebit CSU has finally broken chains of 13-game losing streak, Rams capable of an upsurge, especially with chance to send beloved HC Lubick (almost certain to retire, if MWC rumor mill to be believed) out on high note. Utah on nice roll, but CSU stays close if RB G. Johnson (305 YR last 2) continues to provide support for QB Hanie.

(06-UTAH 35-Colo. 22...U.26-18 U.42/205 C.34/148 U.21/34/1/321 C.15/33/2/235 U.0 C.0)

(06-UTAH -12 35-22 05-CSU -4' 21-17 04-UTAH -26 63-31...SR: Utah 29-17-2)

BOWLING GREEN 42 - Ohio 28--Since fading Ohio having trouble stopping the wind (37 ppg allowed last 5), expect BG to continue its series domination (8 straight covers vs. Bobcats) now that Falcons have fully unleashed blue-chip frosh RB Geter (Florida sprint champ had 203 YR, 4 catches for 53 vs. Kent St. ) to take pressure of capable QB Sheehan. Ohio QB Bower's decision-making remains shakier than ever (4 ints. vs. Golden Flashes).

(06-B. Green 21-OHIO 9...O.19-14 B.44/148 O.32/54 O.20/34/2/188 B.10/19/0/108 B.0 O.1)

(06-Bgu +6' 21-9 05-BGU -21 38-14 04-Bgu -14 41-16...SR: Bowling Green 35-21-2)

OREGON STATE 27 - Stanford 20--OSU's recent resurgence reminiscent of similar midseason rally LY and has coincided with QB Canfield and "O" reducing giveaways (only 3 TOs last 2 after 23 in first 5 games!) that sidetracked Beavers in September. But evidence indicates recent Stanford uprising (won 2 straight on road!) no false alarm, as new QB Pritchard proving an effective pilot for Jim Harbaugh's West Coast version.

(06-Ore. St. 30-STAN. 7...O.24-12 O.47/208 S.21/85 O.16/25/0/177 S.9/26/1/125 O.0 S.1)

(06-Osu -14' 30-7 05-Stan. +6 20-17 04-Osu -2' 24-19...SR: Stanford 47-23-3)

Ucla 27 - WASHINGTON STATE 26--Before counting out Wazzu, remember Cougs circled the wagons in last home game vs. Arizona State, and beleaguered HC Doba in no mood to start building for future by playing loads of underclassmen. And can't be too comfy laying points on road with UCLA, which has lost outright 13 times as chalk in Karl Dorrell's 4+Ys. Note that WSU QB Brink torched Bruin 2ndary with 405 YP in LY's Coug win at Rose Bowl.

(06-Wash. St. 37-UCLA 15...W.25-16 W.36/110 U.24/74 W.28/38/2/405 U.17/37/2/252 W.0 U.1)

(06-Wsu +2 37-15 05-Ucla -5 44-41 (OT) 04-Wsu +14 31-29...SR: UCLA 35-17-1)

*South Carolina 21 - TENNESSEE 20--While both off disappointing efforts, believe road-tested South Carolina (8-1 vs. spread last 9 away) more likely to regroup than UT squad that's dropped 10 straight as SEC chalk in Knoxville. Vols productive QB Ainge won't easily find rhythm vs. 'Cocks tight-covering 2ndary (ranked 1st nationally; 49%, 146 ypg). Meanwhile, Carolina's normally-effective QBs Smelley and/or Mitchell able to attack a green, reeling Vol 2ndary (58%, 13 TDs, just 5 ints.).

(06-Tenn. 31-S. CAR. 24...S.23-17 S.35/165 T.23/71 T.21/29/0/254 S.16/30/3/230 T.1 S.0)

(06-Tenn. -3' 31-24 05-Usc +13' 16-15 04-Tenn. +1 43-29...SR: Tennessee 20-3-2)

*TOLEDO 28 - Northern Illinois 27--Although injury-riddled 1-7 NI just playing for pride, still uncomfy laying points with defensively-porous Toledo squad (45 ppg) that's money-burnin' 2-10 last 12 as MAC chalk. Well-coached Huskies making habit of narrow losses in MAC, dropping 5 of their last 6 by combined 13 pts. Dog in series has covered 5 straight.

(06-Toledo 17-N. ILL. 13...N.17-16 T.49/238 N.22/23 N.20/47/1/244 T.8/21/1/49 T.0 N.1)

(06-Toledo +12 17-13 05-Niu +9' 35-17 04-Toledo +6' 31-17...SR: Toledo 27-7)

*KENTUCKY 34 - Mississippi State 24--Kentucky's "emotional well" running low following 3 straight draining SEC battles, so not surprised to see improved, defensively-tough MSU stay inside generous number. Bulldogs poised frosh QB Carroll (no ints. so far) avoiding the big mistakes, and tackle-breaking RB Dixon should find room vs. Wildcats permissive run defense (ranked 95th, 4.7 ypc).

(06-Ky. 34-MISS. ST. 31...K.22-16 K.38/106 M.24/24 M.22/41/2/384 K.19/29/1/284 K.1 M.1)

(06-Ky. -1 34-31 05-KY. -1 13-7 04-MSU -3' 22-7...SR: Kentucky 20-14)

*RUTGERS 34 - West Virginia 33--Technical case for both sides, as road-warrior Mountaineers 11-3 vs. spread last 14 as visitor and Scarlet Knights have covered 6 straight as dog. Rutgers defense (12 sacks last 2 games) has enough speed to avoid being overwhelmed by WV stars White & Slaton. And, with workhorse RB Rice (377 YR on 75 carries in last 2 games) pounding away, Knight QB Teel should be able to fire some shots down field off play-action.

(06-WVU 41-Rut. 39 (OT)...R.20-19 W.47/195 R.37/174 R.19/26/0/278 W.14/30/1/244 W.0 R.0)

(06-WVA -10' 41-39 (OT) 05-Wva -3' 27-14 04-Wva -15 35-30...SR: West Virginia 28-4-2)

*Ohio State 17 - PENN STATE 16--With QB Anthony Morelli coming off one of his best efforts, contributions of RB Rodney Kinlaw (349 YR, 4 TDs last 3), and a unit that's ranked 4th in the nation in scoring defense, Penn State has all the tools to give Ohio State its biggest challenge to date. Buckeye defense formidable, but Nittany Lions are 19-1 SU last 20 at home, including an upset against the Buckeyes in 2005. TV--ABC

(06-OSU 28-Penn St. 6...P.16-14 P.40/142 O.29/138 O.12/22/2/115 P.16/25/3/106 O.0 P.0)

(06-OSU -17 28-6 05-PSU +3' 17-10 04-OSU -6' 21-10...SR: EVEN 11-11)

*UTEP 45 - Houston 42--Key battle in race for C-USA title between early frontrunners in league's West Division. Balanced Houston offense plenty potent, and slight defensive edge to visiting Cougars. Still, hard to buck UTEP (4-1-1 vs. spread), as Miners have extra week of prep, plus dynamic duo on offense in RS frosh QB Vittatoe (13 TDP, only 3 ints.) & late-blooming sr. RB M. Thomas (13 TDs, 708 YR on 5.1 ypc).

(06-HOU. 34-Utep 17...H.24-13 H.42/204 U.23/30 H.20/30/1/208 U.19/30/1/206 H.0 U.0)

(06-HOUSTON -6' 34-17 05-UTEP -12 44-41 (OT)...SR: UTEP 3-1)

*Byu 33 - SAN DIEGO ST. 13--Acknowledge some encouraging signs lately at SDSU, as "D" finally displaying a little backbone. But erratic performance pattern has been a trademark of Chuck Long's Aztec teams, and psychological state could be more dicey than usual after last-second heartbreaker vs. New Mexico. Meanwhile, BYU's new weapon RB Unga (323 YR last 2) providing extra balance for potent Coug attack.

(06-BYU 47-Sds 17...B.23-21 B.32/152 S.38/141 B.16/21/0/267 S.20/32/1/216 B.1 S.1)

(06-BYU -28 47-17 05-SDS P 31-10 04-BYU -10' 49-16...SR: BYU 23-7-1)

*California 30 - ARIZONA STATE 27--What a difference a few weeks can make, as it's ASU that now has legit BCS hopes, while Cal has readjusted its postseason sights to Holiday and Sun Bowls. We'll see how Sun Devils cope with upper-tier competition without services of chop-busting RB Torain (out for season). No surprise if ASU QB Carpenter damages suspect Bear stop unit, although explosive Cal weaponry capable of trading points vs. any foe.

(06-CAL. 49-Ariz. St. 21...A.25-16 A.46/237 C.27/139 C.18/26/1/270 A.16/36/4/177 C.1 A.1)

(06-CALIFORNIA -8 49-21 04-CALIFORNIA -16 27-0...SR: EVEN 13-13)

*HAWAII 55 - New Mexico State 24--Hal Mumme's NMSU Air Raid finally off tarmac again when QB Holbrook returned with a flourish (404 YP) last Saturday vs. Idaho. But WAC sources suggest last week's Hawaii "bye" could do wonders for Colt Brennan's sore ankle, and leaky Aggie defense could be in for a long night vs. June Jones' Red Gun. Unbeaten BCS hopeful Warriors 9-4 last 13 laying DDs at home.

(06-Hawaii 49-NMS 30...N.28-26 H.33/155 N.30/118 H.23/34/0/353 N.32/46/1/330 H.1 N.2)

(06-Hawaii -19 49-30 05-HAWAII -20' 49-28...SR: Hawaii 3-0)

ADDED GAMES

ARKANSAS 52 - Florida Intl. 7--Now that Arkansas finally played a complete game on both sides of ball in 44-8 romp at Ole Miss, must lay lumber vs. outclassed FIU, riding 19-game losing streak. Hogs have already whipped two Sun Belt squads by combined 112-33 margin TY. (FIRST MEETING)

FLORIDA ATLANTIC 24 - La.-Monroe 21--ULM's athletic, improved-passing jr. QB Lancaster (former WR completed 15 of 20 for 237 yds. vs. FIU) & super-steady RB Dawson (100+ YR in 11 of past 12 games) comprise one of Sun Belt's premier offensive tandems. So look for careful Warhawks (just 10 giveaways in 7 games) to battle opportunistic FAU (+18 TO margin), afforded fewer chances to feast on TOs here.

(06-Fl. Atl. 21-LA.-MON. 19...20-20 F.38/151 L.28/122 L.23/38/2/285 F.13/19/0/185 F.0 L.0)

(06-Fau +14 21-19 05-Ulm +7' 28-21 04-Ulm +14 17-13...SR: La.-Monroe 2-1)

*ARKANSAS STATE 26 - Troy 24--Arkansas State's bipolar performance pattern a bit perplexing (Indians followed school-record 681-yard fireworks show vs. ULL with paltry 138 yards and 9 sacks allowed vs. MTSU last week). But ASU has been Troy's nemesis lately, and Indians usually on warpath at Jonesboro (11-1 SU last 12 as host).

(06-Ark. St. 33-TROY 26...A.25-18 A.51/233 T.26/88 T.19/30/2/267 A.13/26/0/188 A.0 T.1)

(06-Asu +8 33-26 05-ASU -3' 9-3 04-ASU +13 13-9...SR: Arkansas State 6-2)

*Middle Tennessee St 28 - NORTH TEXAS 20--UNT 1-1 SU at home TY, with a 10-point loss to Florida Atlantic & a tipped-pass-delight 10-point victory over Monroe. The emerging MTSU defense had 9 sacks and 4 takeaways vs. Arkansas State last week, while the Eagles fell 45-7 at Troy despite 7 takeaways by North Texas (what?)!

(06-Mtsu 35-N. TEX. 0...M.24-8 M.57/212 N.24/40 M.13/18/0/154 N.7/16/2/63 M.0 N.1)

(06-Mts +4 35-0 05-Ntu +5' 14-7 04-NTU -3 30-21...SR: North Texas 5-1)

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28

*Ucf 28 - SOUTHERN MISS 27--On the surface, this shapes up as battle between star RBs. UCF has jr. Kevin Smith, who has run for 14 TDs & 155 ypg (2nd in nation) TY. USM counters with slippery soph Fletcher (more than 2000 YR in last 1+ seasons). What will likely determine outcome, however, is which QB makes fewer mistakes. Lean slightly to Knights' tough-minded sr. Israel. TV--ESPN

(06-S. Miss 19-UCF 14...U.16-14 U.39/134 S.29/89 U.18/31/1/191 S.15/31/0/184 S.0 U.1)

(06-Usm -6 19-14 05-USM -8' 52-31...SR: Southern Miss 2-0)

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 15 over Kent State

TEXAS TECH by 24 over Colorado

ARIZONA by 7 over Washington

MARYLAND by 7 over Clemson

posted by phantom

Oct. 23 2007 3:09pm
0 likes

Pointwise

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

ARIZONA STATE over California RATING: 1

MISSOURI over Iowa State RATING: 1

TENNESSEE over South Carolina RATING: 2

OREGON over Southern California RATING: 3

VANDERBILT over Miami-Ohio RATING: 4

HAWAII over New Mexico State RATING: 4

TEXAS over Nebraska RATING: 5

TEXAS TECH over Colorado RATING: 5

NFL KEY RELEASES

PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati RATING: 2

INDIANAPOLIS over Carolina RATING: 3

CHICAGO over Detroit RATING: 4

NEW ENGLAND over Washington RATING: 4

BUFFALO over New York Jets RATING: 5

posted by phantom

Oct. 23 2007 3:09pm
0 likes

Big Dogs

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is this weeks big dogs . There are only two . Georgia, Mississippi state.

posted by phantom

Oct. 23 2007 6:11pm
0 likes

Power Sweep

Key Selections

College

4* Byu over SAN DIEGO ST 41 17

3* EAST CAROLINA over Uab 41 17

3* West Virginia over RUTGERS 37 20

2* FLORIDA ATL over Ulm 33 23

2* UTAH ST ( + ) over Louisiana Tech 23(+) L Tech 17 Utah ST winning straight up

2* IOWA ( + ) over Michigan State 20 17 Iowa winning straight up

posted by phantom

Oct. 23 2007 10:08pm
0 likes

Power Sweep

Key Selections

Pro

4* Browns/Rams Over the Total

3* MINNESOTA over Philadelphia 17 10

2* TAMPA BAY over Jacksonville 17 13

2* NEW ENGLAND over Washington 38 17

posted by phantom

Oct. 23 2007 10:09pm
0 likes

Power Sweep

Underdog Play of the Week

Washington St ( +6.5 ) over Ucla

Score W St 27 Ucla 26

posted by phantom

Oct. 23 2007 10:09pm
0 likes

Power Sweep

Over / Unders

4* Browns / Rams Over 43.5

3* Jags / Bucs Under 36.5 (estimated Line)

3* Eagles / Viks Under 40

2* Lions / Bears Over 43

2* Steelers / Bengals Over 44 (estimated Line

posted by phantom

Oct. 23 2007 10:09pm
0 likes

The Gold Sheet EXTRA Tech Play of the Week

Nevado over Idaho -- Nevada 12-1 as Reno chalk since HC Chris Ault returned to sidelines in 04, & Wolf pac has covered last 6 laying double digits Meanwhile cold Idaho no covers in last 5 in 07

posted by phantom

Oct. 23 2007 10:59pm
0 likes

nfl trends

Sunday, October 28th

Week 8 Byes: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle

Cleveland at St. Louis, 1:00 EST

Cleveland: 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points

St. Louis: 2-8 ATS off a road loss by 14+ points

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 EST

Detroit: 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less

Chicago: 11-2 Over as a home favorite

Indianapolis at Carolina, 1:00 EST

Indianapolis: 5-1 ATS vs. NFC South opponents

Carolina: 6-1 Over off BB road wins

NY Giants vs. Miami, 1:00 EST in London, England

NY Giants: 7-0 ATS in October

Miami: 1-11 ATS in the first half of the season

Oakland at Tennessee, 1:00 EST

Oakland: 7-17 ATS off an ATS loss

Tennessee: 30-16 ATS off a division win

Philadelphia at Minnesota, 1:00 EST

Philadelphia: 25-12 ATS vs. NFC North opponents

Minnesota: 23-9 Under off BB road games

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST

Pittsburgh: 7-2 Under playing on artificial turf

Cincinnati: 1-7 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Buffalo at NY Jets, 4:05 EST

Buffalo: 20-7 Over off 3+ ATS wins

NY Jets: 1-5 ATS off 3+ losses

Houston at San Diego, 4:05 EST

Houston: 1-6 ATS off a loss as a favorite

San Diego: 7-1 ATS vs. AFC South opponents

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay, 4:05 EST

Jacksonville: 4-1 Under vs. NFC South opponents

Tampa Bay: 1-7 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

New Orleans at San Francisco, 4:15 EST

New Orleans: 2-9 ATS as a favorite

San Francisco: 7-3 Over in October

Washington at New England, 4:15 EST

Washington: 8-1 Under away off a home game

New England: 7-0 ATS as a favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Monday, October 29th

Green Bay at Denver, 8:30 EST ESPN

Green Bay: 51-30 Over after having 75 or less rushing yards

Denver: 4-12 ATS vs. NFC North opponents

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Sunday, November 4th

Week 9 Byes: Chicago, Miami, NY Giants, St. Louis

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:45am
0 likes

ncaaf trends

Thursday, October 25th

Boston College at Virginia Tech, 7:45 EST ESPN

Boston College: 10-3 Under in road games

Virginia Tech: 15-5 ATS vs. conference opponents

Air Force at New Mexico, 9:00 EST VER

Air Force: 21-40 ATS off BB conference games

New Mexico: 27-12 ATS off ATS losses in 2 of their last 3 games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Friday, October 26th

Boise State at Fresno State, 8:00 EST ESPN2

Boise State: 20-6 ATS off 3+ conference wins

Fresno State: 6-1 Under off 3+ wins

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Saturday, October 27th

South Florida at Connecticut, 12:00 EST

South Florida: 9-2 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Connecticut: 7-0 ATS at home off a conference game

Indiana at Wisconsin, 12:00 EST

Indiana: 4-12 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

Wisconsin: 12-1 ATS off BB Unders

Northwestern at Purdue, 12:00 EST

Northwestern: 3-10 ATS off a straight up win

Purdue: 7-1 Under after losing 2 of their last 3 games

North Carolina at Wake Forest, 12:00 EST

North Carolina: 5-1 Over off 3+ ATS wins

Wake Forest: 7-19 ATS as a home favorite

Pittsburgh at Louisville, 12:00 EST

Pittsburgh: 4-14 ATS away off BB home games

Louisville: 6-1 ATS off a loss

Ball State at Illinois, 12:00 EST

Ball State: 9-1 ATS in road games

Illinois: 14-29 ATS off an Under

Duke at Florida State, 12:00 EST

Duke: 1-6 ATS off BB home games

Florida State: 25-10 ATS off BB ATS losses

Minnesota at Michigan, 12:00 EST

Minnesota: 7-1 Over off BB road games

Michigan: 9-2 ATS vs. conference opponents

Mississippi at Auburn, 12:30 EST

Mississippi: 1-5 ATS off a conference home loss

Auburn: 15-6 ATS vs. conference opponents

Iowa State at Missouri, 12:30 EST

Iowa State: 2-10 ATS after having 100 or less rushing yards

Missouri: 8-1 ATS in home games

Miami OH at Vanderbilt, 12:30 EST

Miami OH: 5-1 Under after winning 3 of their last 4 games

Vanderbilt: 8-20 ATS at home in October

Akron at Buffalo, 1:00 EST

Akron: 8-0 ATS off a bye week

Buffalo: 8-3 Over off a non-conference game

Central Michigan at Kent State, 1:00 EST

Central Michigan: 11-2 ATS as a favorite

Kent State: 2-10 ATS off a home game

Baylor at Kansas State, 2:00 EST

Baylor: 1-8 ATS off BB conference games

Kansas State: 16-6 ATS at home off a road loss

Kansas at Texas A&M, 2:00 EST

Kansas: 6-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less

Texas A&M: 1-6 ATS off a win by 21+ points

Colorado at Texas Tech, 2:00 EST

Colorado: 1-8 ATS as a road underdog

Texas Tech: 21-6 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points

UNLV at Wyoming, 2:00 EST

UNLV: 1-8 ATS away vs. conference opponents

Wyoming: 7-1 Over off BB losses

SMU at Tulsa, 3:00 EST

SMU: 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points

Tulsa: 2-17 ATS off BB games with a combined score of 60+ points

Memphis at Tulane, 3:00 EST

Memphis: 10-3 Under as a favorite

Tulane: 4-13 ATS vs. conference opponents

USC at Oregon, 3:00 EST

USC: 2-9 ATS in October

Oregon: 31-12 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Louisiana Tech at Utah State, 3:00 EST

Louisiana Tech: 2-10 ATS off an Over

Utah State: 5-1 ATS off 5+ losses

Arizona at Washington, 3:00 EST

Arizona: 7-0 ATS away off 3+ conference games

Washington: 0-7 ATS at home off 3+ conference games

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan, 3:30 EST

Western Michigan: 0-8 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Eastern Michigan: 8-2 Under in home games

UAB at East Carolina, 3:30 EST

UAB: 7-1 Under off BB Unders

East Carolina: 17-7 ATS off BB games allowing 31+ points

Georgia vs. Florida, 3:30 EST at Jacksonville, FL

Georgia: 1-5 ATS after committing 0 turnovers

Florida: 6-1 ATS as a neutral site favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Michigan State at Iowa, 3:30 EST

Michigan State: 0-6 ATS off a conference road loss

Iowa: 7-1 Under off a road loss

Clemson at Maryland, 3:30 EST

Clemson: 1-5 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Maryland: 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less

Virginia at NC State, 3:30 EST

Virginia: 1-9 ATS away off a win as an underdog

NC State: 9-2 Under off a road game

Nebraska at Texas, 3:30 EST

Nebraska: 1-10 ATS off a home game

Texas: 8-0 ATS off BB road wins

Idaho at Nevada, 4:00 EST

Idaho: 2-10 ATS off a loss

Nevada: 9-1 ATS as a home favorite

Rice at Marshall, 4:30 EST

Rice: 15-2 Over playing on artificial turf

Marshall: 2-8 ATS off BB losses

Utah at Colorado State, 5:30 EST

Utah: 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

Colorado State: 24-9 ATS after forcing 4+ turnovers

Ohio U at Bowling Green, 6:00 EST

Ohio U: 0-6 ATS away off a loss

Bowling Green: 9-3 Under in October

Stanford at Oregon State, 6:30 EST

Stanford: 16-6 Under vs. conference opponents

Oregon State: 13-2 ATS at home off BB wins

UCLA at Washington State, 6:30 EST

UCLA: 10-2 ATS vs. conference opponents

Washington State: 1-5 ATS off a conference road loss

South Carolina at Tennessee, 6:45 EST

South Carolina: 10-2 ATS in road games

Tennessee: 2-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Northern Illinois at Toledo, 7:00 EST

Northern Illinois: 1-8 ATS off a road game

Toledo: 22-7 ATS after scoring 42+ points

Mississippi State at Kentucky, 7:00 EST

Mississippi State: 14-29 ATS off an Under

Kentucky: 5-1 ATS off BB games scoring 31+ points

West Virginia at Rutgers, 7:45 EST

West Virginia: 8-2 Over off an Under

Rutgers: 6-0 ATS as an underdog

Ohio State at Penn State, 8:00 EST

Ohio State: 11-1 ATS off an Under

Penn State: 8-2 Under after winning 3 of their last 4 games

Houston at UTEP, 9:00 EST

Houston: 9-2 ATS off a conference game

UTEP: 8-21 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

BYU at San Diego State, 9:30 EST

BYU: 10-1 Over off a win by 21+ points

San Diego State: 8-2 ATS off a conference loss

California at Arizona State, 10:00 EST

California: 7-18 ATS off a loss as a favorite

Arizona State: 7-0 ATS at home off a bye week

New Mexico State at Hawaii, 11:59 EST

New Mexico State: 2-10 ATS off a home game

Hawaii: 10-1 Over in October

Added Games:

Florida International at Arkansas, 2:00 EST

Florida Int: 1-9 ATS off 4+ losses

Arkansas: 6-1 Over after scoring 37+ points

Louisiana Monroe at Florida Atlantic, 4:00 EST

LA Monroe: 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less

Florida Atl: 3-8 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Troy at Arkansas State, 7:00 EST

Troy: 5-1 ATS after allowing 40 or less rushing yards

Arkansas State: 5-1 Under as a home underdog

Middle Tennessee State at North Texas, 7:00 EST

Mid Tenn State: 6-0 ATS in October

North Texas: 4-16 ATS off an Under

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Sunday, October 28th

Central Florida at Southern Miss, 8:00 EST ESPN

Central Florida: 0-4 ATS after scoring 37+ points

Southern Miss: 24-11 Under off a road game

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:46am
0 likes

NFL: Rare Scheduling Situations

by Alex Smart

Last week I touched upon running the football in the NFL and once again Week Seven proved profitable to everyone that put in the 30 minutes during the week to note which teams had a 30+ yard rushing advantage on offense and/or defense heading into their Sunday matchups.

This week I'm going to bring to your attention a scheduling situation that is quite rare in professional pigskin.

Most teams will never play more than two consecutive games at home or on the road, but there are a few occasions during the course of a season where teams are asked to play back-to-back-to-back home or road games. These sets of triplet games are often interrupted by the bye week.

I thought this would be an ideal opportunity to share with you some pertinent angles that will help you in your handicapping after Buffalo became the first team this season (Week 7) to play host for a third consecutive game.

I wasn't at all surprised to see the Bills win outright by five as a field goal underdog. Not only was Buffalo a home underdog, but they were highlighted in a number of trends that supported playing the home team under certain parameters in their third consecutive home game.

It's not just the home team that you should look at a possible play 'on' or 'against.â€™ Fading road teams has proved just as profitable in their third consecutive contest away from home.

THIRD CONSECUTIVE HOME GAME

As a dog or favorite of -3.5 or less points vs. opponent off back to back wins, teams in their third consecutive home game are 32-17 ATS since 1980 (Buffalo qualified). If home team is .500 or better on the season, they improve to 18-5 ATS.

NFL teams are 8-2-1 ATS since 2001 in their third straight home game with the line at 4 or less points. (Buffalo qualified)

NFL teams are 4-1 ATS in their third straight home game vs. an opponent off a double digit SU loss.

NFL teams in their third consecutive home game are 33-14 ATS provided they enter off a straight up loss and own a won/loss percentage of .375 or better.

Home favorites of -4 points or more off a win and playing in their third consecutive home game vs. an opponent off back to back losses are 5-17 ATS.

THIRD CONSECUTIVE ROAD GAME

Teams playing in their third straight road game are 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS as dogs of +3 points when playing off a SU underdog win, including 1-10 SU and 1-10 ATS if the total of the game is lined at 37 points or less.

Any team that's playing its third consecutive road game vs. a division foe with a .500 (or better) record, and both teams are off a straight-up win, are 2-10 ATS.

Teams off a win and playing their third straight road game are 2-14 ATS, if their win percentage is between .666 and .900, and they're not favored by a field goal or more.

Teams playing their third straight road game and are off a SU/ATS win and the SU win was by 5 points or more vs. a winning foe are 2-19 SU and 3-18 ATS since 1994.

Teams on the road for the third consecutive game and off a SU and ATS win are 29-57 ATS including 12-29 ATS in this set coming off a division game. With those two parameters applied and the guest priced as an underdog of +3 or more last game, this trend crashes to 3-15 ATS and is currently on a 1-12 SU and 1-12 ATS run since 1990.

Teams with a winning record playing their third consecutive road game are 35-56 ATS. If the weary traveler is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .375 or better, this angle slides to 20-44 ATS.

Remaining teams that may qualify for any of the above trends/angles are;

10/29 DENVER hosts Green Bay

11/11 MIAMI hosts Buffalo

11/11 JACKSONVILLE @ Tennessee

11/11 TENNESSEE hosts Jacksonville

11/18 NY JETS hosts Pittsburgh

11/29 DALLAS hosts Green Bay

12/23 NEW ENGLAND hosts Miami

12/23 SAN FRANCISCO hosts Tampa Bay

Remember to never use trends as a standalone reason to wager on any sporting event. They must be incorporated into solid handicapping methodology and reasoning.

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:46am
0 likes

Opening Line Report

October 22, 2007

By Stephen Nover

VegasInsider

Cam Cameron is doing the impossible. The Miami Dolphins head coach is making Nick Saban look like Vince Lombardi.

Saban is back in his coaching element at Alabama. Unfortunately for south Florida, Cameron remains with the Dolphins.

If the Dolphins had one thing going for them it was running back Ronnie Brown. Now heâ€™s gone for the season with his annual injury.

Itâ€™s time for the Dolphins to leave the country, which is exactly what theyâ€™re doing. Miami and the New York Giants meet on Sunday in London. Hopefully this matchup wonâ€™t strain U.S. and Great Britain relations.

The Giants were minus 9 on Monday. The line probably isnâ€™t getting lower. Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, made New York minus 11. The Giants have won five in a row.

â€œWith the way the Giants are playing right now, it looks like this is going to be an ugly game for Miami,â€ Seba said.

Is there any other type of game for the Dolphins? The team is starting Cleo Lemon at quarterback, dealt away its best wide receiver, Chris Chambers, has a defense that got old fast with a beat-up secondary and now doesnâ€™t have their lone playmaker, Brown.

Yet the Dolphins havenâ€™t wrapped up the No. 1 overall draft choice yet. Thatâ€™s because the St. Louis Rams also are 0-7.

The Rams are missing key members of their offensive line, but Marc Bulger returned this past week and now it could be time for Steven Jackson to join the lineup. The Rams are hosting the surprising 3-3 Cleveland Browns. The Browns opened minus 3.

â€œI can see Cleveland being the favorite,â€ Seba said. â€œBut thereâ€™s no way Cleveland can be three if Jackson comes back. Cleveland plays no defense and the Rams are home in their dome.

â€œIf Jackson and the rest of the Rams skill guys play, the line is going to come down to one or two.â€

The total seems low at 43 Â½. The Browns rank last in defense surrendering an average of 413 yards. Cleveland, however, has been averaging 32 points since Derek Anderson took over at quarterback in Week 2. The â€˜overâ€™ is 5-0-1 in the Brownsâ€™ six games this season.

â€œThere are going to be lots of ball in the air thatâ€™s for sure,â€ said Seba, who made the total 47.

The Chicago Bears could have their confidence and swagger back after upsetting Philadelphia. The Bears opened minus 4 hosting Detroit. The line was up to 5 by late Monday morning. The Lions scored 34 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Bears, 37-27, during Week 4.

â€œItâ€™s a revenge spot for the Bears and theyâ€™re off the following week,â€ Seba said. â€œAll the incentive is with the Bears and thatâ€™s where the money is going to go.â€

Seba predicts the line will climb to 5 Â½ and possibly 6. The Bears have defeated the Lions the past two years at Soldier Field by a combined margin of 72-13.

The line could climb, too, on another favorite â€“ New England. The Patriots not only are 7-0, but have covered all of their games. New England was as high as minus 16 Â½ on Monday morning hosting Washington.

â€œIt wouldnâ€™t surprise me if the line goes to 17,â€ Seba said.

It used to be the Patriots werenâ€™t a huge public team despite all their Super Bowl trophies. This year they are. Recreational gamblers love to root for offense and the Patriots are sure providing that averaging 39.8 points per game.

No team has come close to even hanging in against the Patriots. New Englandâ€™s narrowest margin of victory is 17 points against the Browns.

â€œThe Patriots have my highest power rating,â€ said Seba, who has been making power rankings for more than 20 years as a professional oddsmaker.

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:50am
0 likes

marc l

angle of the week

DOUBLE BUBBLE BURSTERS

PLAY AGAINST a college team off back-to-back losses in Game Eight or later in a conference game if the loss two games ago was their first of the season versus an opponent with a win percentage of .400 or greater.

ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 11-28-1

Play Against: California

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:50am
0 likes

marc l

stat of the week

The Tennessee Vols have covered three of their last 18 games at

Knoxville against winning SEC opponents.

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:51am
0 likes

doug upstone

Beating the NFL Pointspread in another Way

Posted: 2007-10-23

Recently a colleague of mine Steve Makinen wrote a mind-opening article regarding the benefits of keeping track of yards per pass attempt in the NFL for picking winners in office pools and for sports wagering purposes. This piece showed why it makes since to follow the best teams in YPPA and go against the teams that perform poorly in this area. While I am in complete agreement with Steve in this territory, I find the subject too limiting in its context and would like to share another topic that plays into what Steve has said, yet offers a broader picture overall with similar or even better results for wagering purposes.

I must say first, as opposed to my distinguished pal, Iâ€™m a big proponent of running the ball. Teamsâ€™ that run the ball 26 or more times in the NFL, in todayâ€™s game, cover the spread better than 79 percent of the time. (Note â€“The number 26 is benchmark, if both teams exceed that total, take the team with higher figure.) One statistical analysis which has been around for a couple of decades, yet does not receive much play is yards per point or YPPT. What this measures is the total effectiveness of a teamâ€™s offense to score points in relationship to yards gained. Too put it in simplest terms, how you beat another team is by outscoring them. (I know, Tim McCarver obvious) This can be done by throwing effectively and by running efficiently. To figure this just take the number of yards a team gains in a game and divide by the number of points they scored.

Truthfully, even though I was aware these numbers, I never gave them proper due until about five seasons ago. What I found is after every team has played four games in a season, this can really be an additional valuable tool. What these numbers reflect is any teamâ€™s ability to score points based on yardage gained in a specific contest. For example, New England leads the NFL in scoring and in total offense, thus it would stand to reason, they would be the best team in the league in YPPT. Contrast those consistent numbers with Denver, who finally covered the spread for the first time this season against Pittsburgh. The Broncos are 5th in total offense at 358.3 yards per game, however are a dismal 30th in the league at 20.3 YPPT. Jay Cutler by appearances will be a fine NFL quarterback, maybe even a great one, but as young player he will make mistakes. With a turnover differential of -3 on the season for the Broncos and a suspect defense that can not force many three and outs, this meanâ€™s no matter how smart Mike Shanahan is as coach, if his offense has to continually go 60 yards or more to score touchdowns, the points will be harder to come by compared to a team that creates more turnovers or can alter field position with a strong defense.

Here is a list of the current top five teams against the spread and yards per point number.

New England 7-0 (10.9)

Indianapolis 4-2 (12.4)

Dallas 4-2 (12.4)

Cleveland 4-2 (12.7)

NY Giants 5-2 (13)

As good as the yards per pass attempt group actually are at 23-11, 67.6 percent against the spread, this contingent is right now even more productive at 25-8 ATS, 75.7 percent. Over time these numbers will come down, as oddsmakers adjust and different teams float in and out for any number of reasons.

The same is true for bad teams that can not score, either because they canâ€™t move the ball or they canâ€™t put it in the end zone without solid quarterback play. Here is the list of the bottom feeders in the league and their spread record.

28) New Orleans 1-5 (18.9)

29) Kansas City 4-2 (20.2)

30) Denver 1-5 (20.3)

31) Atlanta 2-5 (21.

32) St. Louis 1-6 (24.3)

At 9-23 ATS, 28.1 percent, this compares very favorably to what the YPPA grouping that is 9-21 ATS, with the difference being how the bye weeks have fallen for particular teams.

All of these figures are not one year wonders either, as the savvy bettor can make a surfeit of riches choosing situations wisely. Last season playing on San Diego, Chicago, New England, Dallas and Buffalo would have brought home a return of 57.6 percent on 45-33-2 ATS record. Conversely, playing against Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Tampa Bay and Oakland would have framed 59.8 percent winners at 46-31. In 2005, the top and bottom five would have netted an even higher percentage in each situation. The Play On teams were 46-31 and Play Against clubs were 47-32 for a combined sound percentage of 61.5 percent.

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:51am
0 likes

TOM SCOTTâ€™S ANGLE OF THE WEEK

Posted: 2007-10-23

Except for the rare occurrences of teams like New England this season, the NFL is a series of ups and downs throughout the season. It is always more prudent to take the contrary side in an NFL game as we will show with this study. Looking at all NFL teams who failed to score more than ten points in either of their last two games, we found that the home underdogs are the ones who respond the best, especially against less than mighty opponents who have displayed current defensive weaknesses. We define "less than mighty" as teams with a WL% less than .666 and "current defensive weakness" as teams who allowed more than 14 points in their last game. When you put all of those things together, you get this angle:

PLAY ON any NFL home dog or pick who scored ten or less points in each of its last two games if his opponent has a WL% of less than .666 and allowed more than 14 points in his last game.

26 Year ATS = 39-19 for 67.2% winners.

This weekâ€™s play = SAINT LOUIS plus the points over Cleveland

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:52am
0 likes

SportsMemo Best Bets:

Covers: Central Michigan

Veno: West Virginia

Black: Duke

Jones: Georgia

Otto: Georgia

Cash: Miss State

Crow: Texas A&M

Trushel: Washington State

Jay: Miami-NYG Over(NFL)

Palermo: Minnesota (NFL)

Klein: New Orleans/San Fran Under (NFL)

Rynning: Buffalo/NYJ Over

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:52am
0 likes

Marc L

WHERE'S THE 'D'?

PLAY AGAINST any non-division NFL favorite off win if they allowed 35 > points in their last game.

ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 9-23

Play Against: Tennessee Titans

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:53am
0 likes

marc l

smart box

BEHIND THE 8-BALL

Game 8 of the College Football season is often a crossroads for most teams. Those who have won more games than they have lost are entertaining thoughts of securing a bowl bid. Those who are reeling and going down for the count are disappointed and their actions on the field confirm those feelings.

According to our powerful database, teams playing Game 8 off three consecutive losses are prime candidates to be dropped into a corner pocket and ignored... especially when they take out as road dogs in this situation. Thatâ€™s because teams in this scenario are a not-so-pretty 59-109-5 ATS since 1980. This week weâ€™ll be queuing-up against the following clubs: Duke, Florida International and SMU.

Put them in against a foe off a SU & ATS loss and they dip to 17-44-1 ATS. Double-digit road dogs against these same opponents are 8-29-1 ATS. And if our â€˜play-againstâ€™ Game 8 double-digit road dog allows 31 or more PPG on the season, they become a 3-16-1 ATS proposition in this same situation! Itâ€™s Duke and SMU that figure to get racked this week.

Go ahead. You make the call. 8-ball in the corner pocket for the win!

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:54am
0 likes

Gold Sheet "EXTRA"

Air Force

Georgia

Nevada

Washington State

NFL: Miami-NYG "OVER"

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:54am
0 likes

SportsReporter

NCAA:

Best Bet: Pitt

Best Bet: USC

Super Best Bet: Virginia

Best Bet: West Virginia

Best Bet: California

Best Bet: Arkansas State

NFL:

Best Bet: Minnesota

Best Bet: Pitt

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:55am
0 likes

Winning Points

4* Penn State

3* North Carolina

2* Nevada

2* Miss State

2* BYU (PPD)

2* Mid Tenn State

NFL:

4* Chicago

3* Minnesota

2* Carolina

2* Oakland

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:55am
0 likes

Playbook Mid Week Alert

Connecticut

Arizona State

NFL: Philadelphia

Reply With Quote

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:55am
0 likes

Playbook

5* Oregon State

4* Georgia

3* Texas A&M

Upset: South Carolina

NFL

5* Steelers

4* Broncos

3* Rams

Reply With Quote

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:55am
0 likes

Power Plays 4*'s

4* Louisville

4* Auburn

4* Missouri

4* Kansas State

4* Oregon

4* Utah State

4* NC State

4* Nevada

4* West Virginia

4* Penn State

4* Arizona State

4* Middle Tennessee

posted by phantom

Oct. 24 2007 2:56am
0 likes

Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition

NFL Week 8

10/26/2007 11:01 AM EST

by Daniel Fabrizio

SportsInsights

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industryâ€™s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at whatâ€™s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace â€“ NFL Week 8

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 7 only had a couple of big decisions for the sportsbooks. It seems the league parity is making it tough for sports bettors to pound favorites, since every Sunday most of the favorites fail to cover. The big decisions were on the Sunday Night game which went the way of sportsbooks, and the Monday Night game which went the way of The Public. Most sportsbooks reported a profitable Sunday. The Monday Night decision wiped out some of Sundayâ€™s gains. But Indy winning in a blowout and the game failing to go over helped break up a lot of Teaser and Parlay action which helped the sportsbooks stay positive for the week.

The Public posted their sixth consecutive losing week. SportsInsights analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 2-2. Remember when you factor in â€œthe juiceâ€, going .500 is losing. For the season that makes the Public 23-32-4 = 42.5%. SportsInsights Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 2-0-1 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 12-8-1 = 60.0%.

Looking Ahead to this Week

NFL Week 8 is shaping up to have some major decisions. We anticipate Indy, NY Giants, San Diego, and New Orleans to be the most â€œlopsided-betâ€ games of the week. Look for handle sizes to remain strong as the Public continues to pound Indy and the NY Giants. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 8 Sports Marketwatch â€“ Games to Watch

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Odds makers at the sportsbooks we contact tell us that â€œsharp moneyâ€ on Detroit is moving the line from Chicago -5.5 to -5.0 â€“ with some books moving to -4.5. SportsInsightsâ€™ exclusive betting percentages confirm that â€œsmart moneyâ€ is on the Lions â€“ with about 60% of the bets coming in on Chicago â€“ while the line is moving in the opposite direction.

As usual, weâ€™ll take the side of the sharps and sportsbooks â€“ and like to be â€œcontrarian investorsâ€ by â€œBetting Against the Public.â€ Detroit can put points on the board â€“ and the Bears just arenâ€™t the same team they were a year or two ago.

Detroit Lions +5

Indianapolis Colts vs Carolina Panthers

We see â€œvalueâ€ for the Carolina Panthers in several ways. Firstly, our readers know that we like to â€œsell on good news.â€ The Coltâ€™s strong performance on Monday Night Football against a strong Jacksonville team solidified the Colts as a huge â€œPublicâ€ team.

At the time of writing, a whopping 90% of bets were coming in on the Colts. Huge public money has moved the line from Indy -6 to -7 in some places. It is possible that we could see -7.5 at game time. Thatâ€™s HUGE value: 1 or 1.5 points â€“ right at a key number of 7.

Another factor that could come into play is that Carolina is coming off a â€œbyeâ€ week â€“ while Indy played on Monday (and has a short week). Weâ€™ll grab the value!

Carolina Panthers +7

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tampa Bay Bucs

In this match-up, we see value in â€œbuying on bad news.â€ The Jacksonville Jaguars had a poor showing on Monday Night Football. As a result, the Public is betting against Jax. 60% of the bets are coming in on Tampa Bay.

Even so, the line moved from TB -5 to -3.5. This is a tell-tale sign that sharps are also buying Jax on bad news. Jax is a physical team built to run the football. Running the football will help rookie QB Quinn Gray in the absence of QB David Garrard. Weâ€™ll buy Jax on bad news and join the smart money.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4

So, hereâ€™s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this weekâ€™s Games to Watch for NFL Week 8.

Games to Watch (12-8-1)

Detroit Lions +5

Carolina Panthers +7

Jacksonville Jaguars +4

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

Iâ€™ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio

President

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:31pm
0 likes

By Erick Smith, USA TODAY

Kansas and Arizona State for the national title anyone? Crazy as it may seem, that could be a real possibility with tough road tests this weekend for No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Boston College.

Losses by the Buckeyes at Penn State and the Golden Eagles at Virginia Tech would leave the aforementioned Jayhawks and Sun Devils as the remaining unbeatens from the six BCS conferences.

Wonder what preseason odds we could have gotten on that in Las Vegas. Probably good enough for this writer to immediately retire on an island in the Pacific. Not sure what would be better: The relaxing time on the beach or the relief of not having to predict this crazy world of college football.

Of course that would mean missing out on a madcap finish to the season that surely will come in the next six weeks.

You have Ohio State and Boston College in great shape. Each has tough finishes ahead and will have to walk a tightrope to remain perfect.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: Ohio State | Kansas | West Virginia | Southern California | Virginia Tech | Bowl | BCS | Buckeyes | Oregon | Boston College | Penn State | Arizona State | Rose Bowl | Sun Devils | Anthony Morelli

Losses by one or two of the front-runners opens the door for a host of contenders. LSU is third in the BCS standings, followed by Arizona State. Oklahoma and Oregon are right behind the Tigers in the polls, however their computer rankings have them behind the Sun Devils.

Kansas is stuck in ninth in the BCS, though a lot of ground can be made up should the Jayhawks run the table. You also have to include West Virginia, Virginia Tech and South Florida among the contending one-loss teams that could benefit from even more upsets that certainly will come.

And what about Southern California? The Trojans are all the way back in 12th place by virtue of the major misstep against Stanford.

The drama that surely will unfold may be enough reason to delay that trip to paradise until January.

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 22 Penn State, 8 p.m.

How quickly can a game change? We saw a prime example last week with the Buckeyes comfortably ahead of Michigan State 24-0 before allowing two defensive touchdowns and a late field goal. Perhaps that scare was good for Jim Tressel's bunch as they have been untested so far. The Nittany Lions should change that, but don't expect this to be where OSU slips up. Ohio State 20, Penn State 10.

No. 2 Boston College at No. 9 Virginia Tech, 7:30 p.m. (Thursday)

This will be Virginia Tech's 16th Thursday appearance on ESPN. Its record is 13-2. The two losses just happened to be against Boston College. The bigger concern for the Hokies is the status of quarterback Tyrod Taylor and his injured ankle. On the other side of the ball, Eagles quarterback Matt Ryan could solidify his Heisman hopes against one of the nation's top defenses. Virginia Tech 24, Boston College 19.

No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 8 Southern California, 3 p.m.

The stakes couldn't be much higher for the Ducks and Trojans. Both already have one loss in the Pac-10 and know another defeat will rule them out for the national championship and the Rose Bowl. Dennis Dixon still has yet to receive appropriate attention around the nation, but this week is the coming-out party for the Oregon quarterback. Oregon 30, Southern California 21.

No. 6 West Virginia at Rutgers, noon

Last year's epic game ended with Mountaineers victorious in triple overtime and the Scarlet Knights reduced to the Texas Bowl instead of a BCS game. Rutgers may be itching for revenge, but it is an itch they cannot scratch this week. West Virginia 31, Rutgers 23.

No. 7 Arizona State vs. No. 20 California, 8 p.m.

Things can't be falling into place much better for the Sun Devils. Two weeks ago, it looked like the Golden Bears would be one of their toughest games. Now Cal is slumping and ASU is rising in the BCS with all the other contenders falling apart. Arizona State 24, California 23.

No. 10 Kansas at Texas A&M, 7 p.m.

The Jayhawks are more like the Ugly Duckling of unbeatens from BCS conferences. With little expectation facing them this year, they have quietly been dominating at home and posted nice wins at Kansas State and Colorado. A bigger test awaits this week as KU gets a taste of a bigger pond in College Station. Texas A&M 28, Kansas 24.

No. 11 Florida at No. 19 Georgia, 3:30 p.m.

Losers of eight of nine and 15 of 17 in the series, the Bulldogs and their fans have been as bubbly as flat champagne after the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. It doesn't appear to be a better year this time around. Florida 26, Georgia 20.

No. 12 South Florida at Connecticut, 3:30 p.m.

Teams that lose for the first time after the start of October and then travel on the road the next week are susceptible to a second upset. See California and Cincinnati last week. It wouldn't at all be shocking if the Bulls met the same fate this Saturday. South Florida 21, Connecticut 20.

No. 13 Missouri vs. Iowa State, 2 p.m.

The Cyclones battled Oklahoma toe-to-toe for three quarters last week. There probably won't be much left in the gas tank for the Tigers. Missouri 40, Iowa State 9.

No. 14 Hawaii vs. New Mexico State, 12:05 a.m.

This is the last easy game for the Warriors as they try to run the table and reach the BCS. A daunting four-game stretch to end the season starts in two weeks when Fresno State comes to the islands. Hawaii 45, New Mexico State 21.

No. 15 Kentucky vs. Mississippi State, 12:30 p.m.

The last two weeks have shown how far Rich Brooks has taken the Wildcats program. It is amazing to think that midway through last season he was in danger of losing his job. Kentucky 35, Missisippi State 14.

No. 16 Texas vs. Nebraska, 3:30 p.m.

Life doesn't get any easier for Bill Callahan. With consecutive losses by 35, 31 and 22 points (the last two coming at home) and Tom Osborne looking over his shoulder, the Cornhuskers coach must take his team on the road to Austin. A loss would give Nebraska its first four-game skid since 1961. Texas 38, Nebraska 16.

No. 17 South Carolina at Tennessee, 7:45 p.m.

Steve Spurrier coming to Knoxville may be just what the Vols need to inspire them after a sub-par effort against Alabama. The Gamecocks, too, had their worst game of the year last Saturday in a loss to Vanderbilt. With a logjam of five teams with two losses in the SEC East, the winner can still have hope of reaching the conference title game. The loser can start thinking of distant bowl locations. South Carolina 17, Tennessee 14.

No. 18 Virginia at N.C. State, 4:30 p.m.

Winning Ugly was the theme for the 1983 White Sox. It may as well apply to the Cavaliers, who have won the last three of their seven-game winning streak by four total points. It should be no surprise that this will be another close one. Virginia 23, N.C. State 20.

No. 21 Michigan vs. Minnesota, 3:30 p.m.

Well, well, well. Look who is back in the Top 25. Maybe we need to clear off the dirt that critics were shoveling on the grave of Lloyd Carr's coaching tenure and the Wolverines' Rose Bowl hopes. With Michigan and Ohio State two games ahead of the field, it looks the regular season finale in Ann Arbor will decide both issues. Michigan 33, Minnesota 7.

No. 23 Auburn vs. Mississippi, 6 p.m.

It will be hard for the Tigers to bounce back after their tough loss to LSU, especially because it means their chances in the SEC West are on life support. At least they can take solace in knowing they are probably playing the best football of any team in the conference. Auburn 28, Mississippi 10.

No. 25 Wisconsin vs. Indiana, noon

A good showing against Northern Illinois shouldn't be overexaggerated. However, it looks like the Badgers may have finally turned the corner after such a disappointing start. Wisconsin 30, Indiana 20.

Last week's record: 10-7 (7-10)

Season record: 128-36 (70-78)

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:32pm
0 likes

everyedge newsletter #8

THE ExTRA MILE

Moving into the mid-season there are plenty of variables that go into making

solid NFL selections. Bye weeks are almost over, the weather is getting nasty

and to top it all off, now we have games being played in Europe!

This week the team at Every Edge has highlighted a few angles

worth considering in the quest to pick winners.

- Late bye matchups: NFL teams started taking byes this year

one week later than in the past five seasons but after Week 8 there

are still going to be just a handful of teams yet to take a break.

One matchup this weekend, the English Bowl, or the Tea Cup,

whichever you prefer, features two teams that still have a bye

week upcoming.

When two teams that are both yet to take their bye meet in Week 7

or later, playing on the underdog in all non-divisional contests has

gone 5-1 ATS the past six times. In all contests, regardless of division,

playing the â€œOverâ€ has also resulted in a tidy profit by producing

7 overs compared to only 2 unders. Miami is nearly getting double-digits

thanks to the Giants five-game SU/ATS win streak and although New York is

hot, both times they have managed five wins a row the past 10 years during the

regular season, they followed it up with a straight-up loss as a favorite in Game

6. The total is set at 48 and when playing on a five-plus SU losing streak the Dolphins

have gone over the posted total five straight times.

- Home dogs barking: Early lines are indicating that Week 8 is going to offer

bettors anywhere from three to five opportunities to back a home underdog

and so far this year these teams have picked up right where

they left off in `06. Playing on home dogs last season of all

shapes and sizes produced a 47-30-2 ATS (61%) record and so

far in `07 these teams have gone 20-13 ATS (61%).

Conference home dogs are 35-21-1 (63%) since 2006 but three

of this weekâ€™s potential home dogs are inter-conference rivals

and they have not fared as well, going 5-3 ATS so far this year

and just 16-15 ATS since `06. Getting seven points or more

with a home dog continues to be the strongest profile, hitting at

3-1 ATS this season for a total record of 12-4 ATS since `06.

- International Flair: San Francisco and Arizona played a

regular season game in Mexico City in 2005 but for the first

time ever, the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins are

playing one off North American soil. This is the Giants first game abroad

since defeating San Diego, 28-20, in Berlin, Germany, in 1994. Miamiâ€™s most

recent outing was also a win, 38-19 over the Broncos in Mexico City, in

1997, and although they were all exhibition, the Dolphins are 4-0 straightup

outside the United States. This game will take place at Wembley Stadium

in London, England

pro power by greg dempson

The Dolphins have a bye next week and then host the Bills,

travel to Philadelphia and then Pittsburgh for a Monday

night game. Off that Monday contest they host the Jets,

travel to Buffalo (on December 9th) then host the Ravens,

travels to Foxboro and conclude the season at home vs. the

Bengals. Misery doesnâ€™t love company but the Dolphins

arenâ€™t alone as St. Louis is also 0 â€“ 7 straight up and the

Rams also get a bye after hosting Cleveland this Sunday.

(More on the winless Rams and Dolphins next week.)

NFL Schedule Makers

The NFL does a masterful job at marketing and I thought

the league should have scheduled the Steelers vs. the Giants,

the headlines could have read, â€œBig Ben meets Big Ben.â€

Giants vs. Dolphins: the â€œLondon Bridgeâ€ Bowl!

Technically this is a home game for Miami but the odds

makers arenâ€™t technical as the Giants opened as 10-point

favorites and the line is presently â€“ 9Â½ with the total sitting

at 48 points. The Dolphins and their opponents have

combined to score 41 or more pints (make that points) in

six of seven contests. Only their week one game vs. the

Redskins resulted in a low scoring affair, a 16 â€“ 13 loss.

The Giants have reeled off five straight wins after starting

the season at 0 â€“ 2. Their defense has been stellar of late

allowing an average of 13.8 PPG their last five, a marked

improvement since week one when they allowed 45 at Texas

Stadium and week two when New York allowed 35 at the

Meadowlands vs. the Packers. The total seems a bit high to

me and with a trip of this distance, plus the time change,

will the teams be sluggish. Thereâ€™s no past history (regular

season) to draw from. Out of curiosity I looked at preseason

games played at Wembley Stadium and abroad as well as so

see what type of combined points were scored. A total of

eight preseason contests were played at Wembley Stadium

and only one of the eight resulted in one team winning by

double-digits and that was the only favorite that covered

the spread. So, the underdog (including pick) covered 7 out

of 8. The Inter-Conference games were higher scoring than

the Conference match-ups but again, you can not compare

exhibition games to regular season contests.

Oddities

The Dolphins played the third exhibition game ever held at

Wembley Stadium and the two teams combined for exactly

48 points. Miamiâ€™s other three games abroad combined for

36 points vs. the Raiders at Tokyo (1991) and their matchup

at Berlin in 1992 vs. the Broncos produced 58 combined

points. Their last appearance abroad was in 1997 when the

Dolphins played in Mexico City vs. the Broncos and they

combined for 57 points. The Giants have played just one

game outside the Continental USA and that was in 1994

at Berlin vs. the Chargers. Those two teams combined for

exactly 48 points.

There were no preseason games played in 2004 and 2006.

For this 2007 regular season contest, tickets sold out within

two hours of going on sale and over half a million ticket

requests were made in the first 72 hours after the game at

Wembley was announced.

The St. Louis Rams

The Rams franchise began as the Cleveland rams before

they moved to the West Coast. For the first time in their

storied history, the Rams begin a season at 0 â€“ 7. Injuries

have played a part in their 2007 demise but to quote every

coach thatâ€™s ever been on the sidelines, â€œEveryone gets

injuries, you have to play through them!â€

This Sunday the Rams host the Browns before their bye

week before taking to the road for games against the Saints

and 49ers. Four of their last six games are at home and of

the two winless teams I believe they have a better chance

at winning a couple of games than Miami does. Check the

status of RB Jackson, he should start this Sunday.

The Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 4 â€“ 2 straight up with their two losses as

road chalk vs. non division foes, first at Arizona and last

Sunday night at Denver. They did cover on the road in week

one vs. division rival the Browns and are laying 3 points

at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh didnâ€™t seem prepared or perhaps

Denver was hungrier. I also thought their game plan left a

lot to be desired. I have circled their road games at the Jets

and St. Louis as possible let down situations. They should

be up for this Sundayâ€™s game vs. the Bengals but that line

jumped from â€“ 1 to â€“ 3Â½ points, Iâ€™ll just watch this one.

This Weekâ€™s System

The Browns travel to a non division site to play the Rams

and the total is 43 and 43Â½ points.

Chart

When a team scored 30 or more points and won straight

up in regulation time prior to their bye, play the over when

away vs. a non-division opponent after their bye.

* Indicates a Monday night game. ** Indicates each team

off a bye week.

16 â€“ 3 â€“ 3 = 84% ATS when playing the over.

13 â€“ 0 â€“ 3 =100% when home team won or lost their last

game st. up by more than 4 points.

10 â€“ 1 = 91% over the number when the total is 40 or less.

8 â€“ 0 â€“ 2 = 100% to the over when opponent scored 27 or

more their last game.

9 â€“ 1 â€“ 2 = 91% over if opponent won their last game

straight up.

9 â€“ 1 â€“ 2 = 90% over when road team won their last game

by 14 or more points.

Last Week at Every Edge

I missed with the Broncos/Steelers under the total bringing

my 2007 Every Edge record to 7 â€“ 2 ATS. The other system

play in last weekâ€™s chart, the Lions/Bucs under won. Hell, I

had first pick with my own system with two potential plays

and I still couldnâ€™t get it right!

This Weekâ€™s Selection

Iâ€™ll back the Rams and Browns over the total of 43Â½ points

or lower. I bet them over 43 â€“ 1.17. Good winning with the

Rams and Browns over the total.

Winning Info by ben burns

Last weekâ€™s selections went 2-1 ATS. We started the

week off with a CFL winner on Winnipeg. The Blue

Bombers won by double-digits, avenging a loss at

Calgary the previous week. Our second selection

didnâ€™t fare so well, as Ohio State won but failed to

â€œcoverâ€ vs. Michigan State. We were a bit fortunate

with our final play, as the Bengals rallied to win by

a touchdown vs. the Jets, covering by a single point.

That brings the record in my column so for this year

to 11-7-2 ATS (61%). Weâ€™ve been successful with

both â€œlaying pointsâ€ and â€œtaking points.â€ This week,

Iâ€™ve isolated a pair of what I hope will be highly

motivated home underdogs. As always, good luck!

NCAA

South Florida at UCONN

The Bulls are a strong and well-coached team. They

had a fantastic run to begin the season, reeling off

six straight wins and climbing to as high as #2 in

the polls. However, they lost a heart-breaker (30-

27) at Rutgers on Thursday. That was a nice win

for me as I used the Scarlet Knights as a big play. In

this â€œtopsy-turvyâ€ season, the Bullsâ€™ national title

dreams arenâ€™t quite over yet. They took a MAJOR

hit though! Off that huge loss, playing their second

straight road game and with a big revenge game vs.

Cincinnati on deck, Iâ€™m not sure that the Bulls are

ready to be laying points.

Believe me, itâ€™s tough for college teams that had

national title aspirations to regain the same intensity

after suffering their first loss of the season. Here are

several recent examples. The #1 ranked LSU Tigers

lost their first game of the season two weeks ago

and then barely beat Auburn last week, failing to

cover. Another highly ranked team, the California

Golden Bears, followed up their first loss by

losing again last week. The same thing happened

to defending champion Florida, as the Gators lost

outright and followed it up with another loss. After

#13 Clemson suffered its first loss, the Tigers got

crushed at home two weeks ago.

The same thing has happened within the Big

East a few times already too. Like the Bulls, the

Cincinnati Bearcats started the season with six

straight wins. Also, like the Bulls, they were upset

in their seventh game. The following week (last

Saturday) the Bearcats were asked to lay doubledigits

on the road vs. Pittsburgh. They couldnâ€™t

recover from their first loss though and the

Panthers won outright. The Bearcats were in the

opposite role only a couple of weeks before that, as

they faced a Rutgers team which was coming off its

first loss. What happened? The Scarlet Knights lost

again! The fact that the Bearcats had just seen their

dreams of an undefeated season shattered was only

one of the reasons why I played on the Panthers

last week. Itâ€™s also only one of the reasons why the

Huskies are worth a look this week.

Like the Bulls, the Huskies are also 6-1 for the

season. In fact, after knocking off Louisville last

week, theyâ€™re currently the only team with an

undefeated record (2-0) in the highly competitive

Big East. While they didnâ€™t enter the season with

particularly lofty expectations, the Huskies are

proving to be an extremely tough opponent.

Even their lone loss (at Virginia) came by a single

point. The Huskies lost badly at South Florida last

season. However, they upset the Bulls, as seven

point underdogs, when the teams met here in 2005.

Including that result, the Huskies are a profitable

11-4 ATS the last 15 times they played at home

and 8-1 ATS the last nine times they were listed

as underdogs in the +3 to +7 range. This is a huge

game and I expect it to come down to the wire.

Take the points with UCONN.

UCLA at Washington State

While theyâ€™ve managed to remain perfect in

Pac-10 play, the Bruins have been one of the

most inconsistent teams in the country. Back in

September, they looked impressive in beating BYU

by double-digits, only to get crushed 44-6 by Utah

the following week. After getting back on track, the

Bruins were dominant at Oregon State, winning by

a score of 40-14. Instead of building off that effort,

they lost by double-digits vs. a previously winless

Notre Dame squad. They followed that up with a

solid win vs. California last week. Off that big win,

it certainly wonâ€™t be a surprise if they experience a

letdown this week. While itâ€™s hard to know what

to expect from UCLA, Iâ€™m expecting a massive

effort from home underdog Washington State.

The Cougars had last week off to recover from

an embarrassing loss vs. a strong Oregon squad.

Thatâ€™s worth noting as the Cougars are a solid 15-9

the last 24 times that they played when coming off

a bye. The Cougars are also a profitable 12-4 ATS

the last 16 times they were listed as underdogs of

eight points or less. That includes a perfect 5-0 ATS

the last five times that they were home underdogs

in that range. The Cougars crushed the Bruins 37-

15 at UCLA last season, after losing by only three

points the previous year. QB Brink threw for more

than 400 yards in last seasonâ€™s game and the defense

blanked the Bruins for the entire second half. In

fact, the Cougars are a perfect 6-0 ATS in six series

meetings this millennium, winning five of those

games outright. Look for them to give their guests

all they can handle once again this season.

Take the points with WASHINGTON STATE

winninG inFO By Ben Burns

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:32pm
0 likes

NFL Playbook - Week 8

October 24, 2007

By Marc Lawrence

NFL

Sunday, October 28

Cleveland

17-3 A when O/U line > 40 pts

0-4 A Game Seven

ST. LOUIS

20-6 H off div opp

4-15 when O/U line is > 45 & < 50 pts

Detroit

0-8 off SU win vs opp w/rev

0-4 Game Seven

3-14 RDâ€™s off SU win vs opp off SU win & < pts

CHICAGO

SERIES: 3-1 L4 H

7-2 HFâ€™s w/rev off conf opp

SMITH: 9-2 w/rev vs opp off SUATS win

Indianapolis

11-4 off div RG (1-1 this year

0-5 RFâ€™s off SU div win

DUNGY: 12-1 off BB SU wins (last by DD) vs non div opp

CAROLINA

SERIES: 3-0 L3

5-1 H Game Seven

2-12 H vs opp off BB SUATS wins

OCT: 1-6 H vs .500 > opp off SUATS wins

NY Giants

SERIES: 3-1 L4

11-2 A off SU win 14 > pts

8-2 A Game Eight

12-3 A when O/U line is 42 > pts

0-4 favs > 3 pts bef div HG

Miami

5-0 A aft allowing 28 > pts

9-2 dogs 6 > pts (8-0 non div)

7-1 A vs non conf opp

0-6 aft Patriots

1-4 Game Eight

Oakland

SERIES: 4-1 L5/1-6 L7 A

*OCT: 4-0 off ATS win vs non div opp

SU loser 1-16 Game Seven

3-13 A vs opp w/rev

TENNESSEE

14-1 when win SU w/rev

9-3 Game Seven

0-5 conf favs off div opp

5-21 HFâ€™s > 5 and < 10 pts

Philadelphia

SERIES: 8-1 L9

OCT: 2-8 A vs opp off DD SU loss

MINNESOTA

14-3 HDâ€™s w/rev

0-4 Game Seven

OCT: 1-8 when < .500 dogs

Pittsburgh

SERIES: 6-0 L6 A / visitor 9-1... 9-1 A vs div opp off SU win (5-0 favs)

1-7 RFâ€™s vs opp off DD SU win

OCT: 4-11 favs vs < .500 opp w/rev

4-12 Game Seven vs opp w/rev

CINCINNATI

15-3 2ND div HG

OCT: 1-7 H off SU win

4-22 when lose SU in 2nd of BB HGâ€™s

4-16 H vs div opp off SU loss

3-7 Game Seven

Buffalo

SERIES: 4-2 L6 / 5-11 L16 A

9-1 if < .500 vs div opp off SU dog win

NY JETS

OCT: 7-0 off SUATS loss w/rev

7-2-1 H Game Eight

2-9 HFâ€™s aft allowing 35 > pts

Houston

5-0 A off BB SUATS losses vs conf opp

7-1 off BB SUATS losses vs non div opp

3-1 Game Eight

0-8 dogs when W/L record is .500 >

SAN DIEGO

OCT: 5-1 favs vs opp off BB SU losses

OCT: 2-10 when .500 > vs opp off SUATS loss

2-6 H Game Seven

TURNER: 0-5 DD fav (0-1 this year)

Jacksonville

6-0 dogs when O/U line is 36 < pts

5-0 off DD SU loss

OCT: 1-6 non div RFâ€™s

3-7 Game Seven

TAMPA BAY

15-4 HDâ€™s

1-5 Game Eight

New Orleans

0-6 off BB SUATS wins vs opp off SU loss

PAYTON: 8-3 A (1-2 this year)

4/1 O/U Game Seven

SAN FRANCISCO

SERIES: 2-8 L10 / 0-4 L4 H

6-1 Game Seven w/rev

Washington

SERIES: 4-0-1 L5 / 3-0 L3 A

OCT: 7-1 A off SU loss vs .500 > opp

1-9 dogs Game Seven

GIBBS: 8-1 RD vs non div opp off DD SU win

NEW ENGLAND

4-0 DD favs off SUATS win vs opp off BB SU losses

8-1 w/rev vs opp off BB SU losses

12 -2 off BB SU wins of 14 > pts

2-6 H Game Eight

5-11 fav before Colts

Monday, October 29

Green Bay

6-73 when lose SU (0-1 this year)

3-9-1 L10 vs AFC opp

DENVER

12-2 vs opp off SUATS win w/rest

15-4 Game Seven (8-1 H)

1-9 H bef BB RGâ€™s

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:32pm
0 likes

more trends

NCAAFB Playbook

October 24, 2007

By Marc Lawrence

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Thursday, October 25

Bost Coll

SERIES: 5-1 L6 / 4-1-1 L6A

0-5-1 Weekday RG

0-4 A vs conf opp w/ revenge

1-7 A w/ rest

2-11 aft Notre Dame

3-7 when undefeated (Gm 5>)

VA TECH

12-1 H w/ conf revenge

8-1-1 Weekday HG

10-3 H off BB RG (6-1 off BB rd W)

1-4 aft Duke

Air Force

SERIES: 3-0 L3

4-0 aft Wyoming

7-3 dogs vs conf opp w/ revenge

0-6 bef Army

1-4 Game Nine

2-5 on Thursdays

NEW MEXICO

SERIES: 5-1 L6 H

6-1 Game Eight

12-3 w/ conf revenge

5-2 aft SD State

1-5 off BB RG

2-5 on Weekdays

Friday, October 26

Boise St

SERIES: 5-1

3-0 as conf RFâ€™s 10 < pts

5-1 in 2nd of BB RG

5-1 Game Eight

10-2 on Weekdays

2-5 A vs conf opp w/ revenge

FRESNO ST

4-1 as conf HDâ€™s 4 > pts

4-1 aft San Jose St

0-4 on Weekdays

2-10 w/ conf revenge

2-6 Game Eight

Saturday, October 27

S Florida

4-1 vs .700 > opp

8-3 in 2nd of BB RG

5-2 off Weekday gm

1-4 A vs opp w/ revenge

CONNECTICUT

SERIES: Host 3-0

4-1 H w/ conf revenge

1-5 in 2nd of BB HG

1-3 Game Eight

Duke

4-0 as RDâ€™s 21 < pts w/ conf revenge

5-1 A game Eight

4-1 w/ rest

0-4 aft Va Tech

FLORIDA ST

SERIES: 3-1 L4

1-5 as HFâ€™s 10-22 pts

1-4 Game Eight

2-7 in 2nd of BB HG

2-7 as DD favs vs con opp w/ revenge

Minnesota

SERIES: 3-1 L4 A

5-2 as conf RDâ€™s 18 > pts

2-6 as RDâ€™s w/ conf revenge

2-5 Game Nine

MICHIGAN

4-1 H vs conf opp w/ revenge

6-2 bef Michigan St

7-3 Game Nine

1-4 aft RG vs Illinois

4-10 as conf HFâ€™s 18 > pts

Mississippi

9-2 as DD RDâ€™s off BB HG

9-2 as DD RDâ€™s w/ conf revenge

1-6 Game Nine

2-6 aft Arkansas

AUBURN

SERIES: 5-2 L7

8-1 H vs .333 < conf opp

0-5 as DD favs vs conf opp w/ revenge

1-5 in 1st of BB HG

2-8 H aft LSU

Iowa St

SERIES: 3-1 L4 A

1-10 vs conf opp w/ revenge

1-7 as conf RDâ€™s 24 > pts

2-7 A off BB HG

3-10 aft Oklahoma

2-6 dogs in Game Nine

MISSOURI

6-1 as favs 20 > pts

5-1 H Game Eight

5-1 bef Colorado

6-2-1 H w/ conf revenge

10-4 as favs in 2nd of BB HG

Baylor

4-1 A bef Texas Tech

1-5 aft Texas

2-9 Game Nine

3-7 vs conf opp w/ revenge

KANSAS ST

7-1 bef RG vs Iowa St

13-4 as conf HFâ€™s 14 > pts

6-2 H w/ conf revenge

7-3 Game Eight

Kansas

3-0 aft Colorado

3-0 bef Nebraska

3-10 A w/ conf revenge

2-5 Game Eight

*2-5 as conf RFâ€™s 7 > pts

TEXAS A&M

SERIES: 3-0 L3

5-0 H Game Nine

8-1 as HDâ€™s off BB RG

7-2 as HDâ€™s vs opp w/ conf revenge

2-6 bef Oklahoma

Colorado

SERIES: 3-0 L3

10-2 A vs .600 > opp off SUATS L

0-5 vs conf opp w/ revenge

2-6 aft HG vs Kansas

TEXAS TECH

5-1 as HFâ€™s 2 > pts w/ conf revenge

5-2 H bef BB RG

0-3 aft Missouri

Usc

SERIES: 4-0 L4 / 6-1 L7 A

6-0 Game Eight

4-0 L4 as conf RDâ€™s

0-3 aft Notre Dame.. 1-5 in 2nd of BB RG

2-9 A vs conf opp w/ revenge

OREGON

5-1 H w/ conf revenge

*11-2 as HF/HD 3 < pts

5-2 off DD SU conf road W

1-4 H Game Eight

2-5 vs .800 > opp (Gm 7 >)

Georgia

4-1 as dogs w/ conf revenge

7-2 w/ rest

0-4 aft Vanderbilt

1-7 Game Eight

3-9 off SU road W but ATS L

FLORIDA

SERIES: 6-2-1 L9

6-2 Game Eight

2-7 :9 as A/Neutral favs

2-7 as favs off BB RG

2-6 aft Kentucky

Virginia

0-6 A Game Nine

1-6 in 2nd of BB RG

3-9 aft RG vs Maryland

3-7 L10 as conf RFâ€™s

3-7 vs .300 < opp

NC STATE

SERIES: 5-1 L6 H

1-8 H w/ conf revenge

1-4 Game Eight

Nebraska

SERIES: 3-1 L4

6-0 aft Texas A&M

0-4 Game Nine

1-4 dogs off BB HG

1-4 bef RG vs Kansas

TEXAS

SERIES: Host 4-0

11-1 off BB RG

7-1 H vs conf opp w/ revenge

4-1 bef Okla St

5-2 Game Nine

S Carolina

SERIES: 5-0 L5 A

4-0 A Game Nine

5-1 aft Vanderbilt

4-1 in 1st of BB RG

1-5 as conf fav/dog 3 < pts

TENNESSEE

4-0 in 1st of 4 straight HG

0-5 aft RG vs Alabama

1-8 H vs conf opp w/ revenge

3-15 H vs > .500 conf opp

Mississippi St

8-1 A Game Nine

4-1 A vs conf opp w/ revenge

1-5 bef Alabama

2-8 as conf dogs 17 < pts off non conf gm

2-5 in 2nd of BB RG

KENTUCKY

SERIES: 5-1 L6

6-1 as HFâ€™s vs con opp w/ revenge

5-1 as conf favs 8 > pts

1-6 aft Florida

1-5 H Game Nine

W Virginia

10-1 vs opp off Weekday gm

5-1 A vs conf opp w/ revenge

4-1 bef Louisville

RUTGERS

SERIES: 3-1 L4

5-1 H Game Eight

5-1 as dogs in 2nd of BB HG

6-2 as dogs w/ conf revenge

0-6-1 off SU conf dog W

Ohio St

5-1 Game Nine

5-1 as conf RF < 10 pts

5-2 A vs conf op w/ revenge

3-8 bef HG vs Wisconsin

PENN ST

SERIES: 4-0 L4 H

16-1 SU L17 HG

6-1 H w/ conf revenge

5-1 L6 as HDâ€™s

9-2 Game Nine

3-7 bef Purdue

California

SERIES: 4-0 L4

6-1 as dogs in 2nd of BB RG

6-2 aft RG vs UCLA

1-4 Game Eight

2-5 as conf RDâ€™s < 10 pts vs opp off SU W

ARIZONA ST

6-1 H Game Eight

5-1 when undefeated (Gm 7 >)

0-4 as conf HFâ€™s < 10 pts w/ revenge

1-4 w/ rest

New Mex St

1-8 vs rested opp

1-6 as RDâ€™s w/ conf revenge

1-6 Game Nine

1-3 as conf dogs 21 > Pts

HAWAII

10-2 in 1st of BB HG

4-1 as HFâ€™s w/ rest

5-2 Game Eight

2-6 off SU W but ATS L

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:33pm
0 likes

nfl trends

Sunday, October 28th

Week 8 Byes: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle

Cleveland at St. Louis, 1:00 EST

Cleveland: 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points

St. Louis: 2-8 ATS off a road loss by 14+ points

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 EST

Detroit: 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less

Chicago: 11-2 Over as a home favorite

Indianapolis at Carolina, 1:00 EST

Indianapolis: 5-1 ATS vs. NFC South opponents

Carolina: 6-1 Over off BB road wins

NY Giants vs. Miami, 1:00 EST in London, England

NY Giants: 7-0 ATS in October

Miami: 1-11 ATS in the first half of the season

Oakland at Tennessee, 1:00 EST

Oakland: 7-17 ATS off an ATS loss

Tennessee: 30-16 ATS off a division win

Philadelphia at Minnesota, 1:00 EST

Philadelphia: 25-12 ATS vs. NFC North opponents

Minnesota: 23-9 Under off BB road games

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST

Pittsburgh: 7-2 Under playing on artificial turf

Cincinnati: 1-7 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Buffalo at NY Jets, 4:05 EST

Buffalo: 20-7 Over off 3+ ATS wins

NY Jets: 1-5 ATS off 3+ losses

Houston at San Diego, 4:05 EST

Houston: 1-6 ATS off a loss as a favorite

San Diego: 7-1 ATS vs. AFC South opponents

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay, 4:05 EST

Jacksonville: 4-1 Under vs. NFC South opponents

Tampa Bay: 1-7 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

New Orleans at San Francisco, 4:15 EST

New Orleans: 2-9 ATS as a favorite

San Francisco: 7-3 Over in October

Washington at New England, 4:15 EST

Washington: 8-1 Under away off a home game

New England: 7-0 ATS as a favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Monday, October 29th

Green Bay at Denver, 8:30 EST ESPN

Green Bay: 51-30 Over after having 75 or less rushing yards

Denver: 4-12 ATS vs. NFC North opponents

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Sunday, November 4th

Week 9 Byes: Chicago, Miami, NY Giants, St. Louis

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:33pm
0 likes

Kelso Sturegon NFL(Newsletter)

Best Bet Of Week

TENNESSEE TITANS by 14 over Oakland Raidersâ€”There are few teams in the NFL playing better than the Tennessee Titans (4-2). They are efficient on offense and defense and it is not a stretch to say they are the best-coached team in the league. In this home game against the Oakland Raiders, who are making their second draining cross-country trip in the last three weeks, there are few edges that do not belong to the Titans. While Oakland has done quite well running the ball in three of its last four games, it must be noted that ground yardage came against teams ranked 30th, 31st and 32nd in the league. It wonâ€™t be so easy in Nashville, where the defense has limited teams to just 63.2 yards per game this season. I look for the Titans to simply grind away at Oakland, wear out the Raiders and cruise home by a comfortable margin.

Preferred Plays

Cleveland Browns by 9 over ST. LOUIS RAMSâ€”There can be little question the Cleveland Browns (3-3) are one of the surprise teams of the NFL season. While usually punchless on offense, the Browns are averaging 345.5 yards of offense each game and that has translated into 27.8 points per gameâ€”enough to permit Cleveland to outshoot or at least keep up with all their opponents. Add a little defense to the mix and this could be a very good Browns team. While the road always plays dangerously, the St. Louis Rams are right now by far the worst team in the NFL, although it is not their fault. No team in recent memory has been hit by as many injuries as has St. Louis and there simply is nothing the Rams can do about it but get well and salvage whatever they can from this season. The futility of it all is reflected in the fact St. Louis is averaging just 283.5 yards and 12.2 points per game this season. This one should from the get-go belong to the upstart Browns, which are coming off a bye.

Buffalo Bills by 7 over NEW YORK JETSâ€”No one is about to suggest the Buffalo Bills are loaded with talent but it certainly is no stretch to say coach Dick Jauron gets 100% from each of his players and to say this is one team that comes to play every Sunday. Buffalo, which beat the Jets, 17-14, at home earlier this season, should make it a sweep against a team that is playing with an offensive game plan that is so conservative it makes one wonder of what the New York coaching staff is afraid. The Jets wonâ€™t let Chad Pennington go long and count on running back Thomas Jones to do it all. That 1-5 start is no accident, because what New York is doing is not working. It is difficult to believe the Jets can handle the shut-down defense the Bills are capable of throwing at any opponent, and that should open the door for another Bills win.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS by 17 over Houston Texansâ€”The Houston Texans (3-4) are learning out rather quickly new quarterback Matt Schaub canâ€™t do it by himself. The offense line has improved in its pass blocking and cut way down on the sacks it used to permit in wholesale fashion but now it canâ€™t block for the run. Houston caught everyone attention when it opened the season 2-0, beating Kansas City, 20-3, and then going to Carolina to knock off the Panthers, 34-21. Since then they have gone 1-3, with the lone win coming at the expense of the Atlanta Falcons. San Diego (3-3) comes into this game off a bye week and should be in high gear as they continue to redeem the season. After a 1-3 start, San Diego in its last two games has beaten Oakland at home, 28-17, and crushed the Denver Broncos on the road, 41-3. The offense is clicking the defense is finally in gear. This one should be somewhat easy.

Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERSâ€”Jacksonville continues to fly below the NFL radar screen but is without a doubt one of the best teams in the league. The Jaguars are doing it by playing a combination of field position football combined with a very conservative grind-it-out offense and, in the process, are driving their opponents nuts. But itâ€™s not just the offense. The Jags are giving up just 278.8 yards and 11.6 points per gameâ€”both extremely impressive figures. When a team is playing as well on both sides of the ballâ€”and can control the pace of the gameâ€”they are not going to lose many. Tampa Bay is a much improved team from last season but still is without a decent running game because of injuries to its top two running backs and it seems highly unlikely the Bucs can win with the passing arm of quarterback Jeff Garcia alone. This is a game that will be deliberate and even boring but it should belong to the visitors.

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:34pm
0 likes

DR. BOB

SAN DIEGO (-10.0) 24 Houston 23

01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-28 - Stats Matchup

3-Star Best Bet on Houston at +7 1/2 or more

San Diego has played two good games in a row, but that hardly means that theyâ€™re suddenly back to being the dominant team that they were last season. The Chargers are good offensively, rating at 0.4 yards per play better than average, but their defense has allowed 5.5 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. The Texans have an offense that has averaged 5.7 yppl this season (to teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and it doesnâ€™t matter whether Matt Schaub or backup Sage Rosenfels starts since Rosenfels has a lifetime 7.0 yards per pass play average and has averaged 7.9 yppp the last two weeks against Jacksonville and Tennessee. Rosenfels led the Texans to 28 4th quarter points in their near upset of the Titans last week. The Texans havenâ€™t been as good throwing the ball in 5 games without star WR Andre Johnson and I rate their attack at 0.2 yppl better than average without Johnson in the lineup. Houstonâ€™s defense is 0.4 yppl worse than average but the Texans are an average team overall thanks to their good special teams. San Diego isnâ€™t much better than average and my math model favors the Chargers by just 4 Â½ points if this game is being played in San Diego and by 1 Â½ points if the game is moved to Arizona due to the firestorms in San Diego. The math would favor the Chargers by only 8 points even if they play defensively at the high level that they played on that side of the ball last year, so there is line value favoring Houston even if you assume that the Chargers are back to being the Chargers of last year (which I doubt they are). The Chargersâ€™ two recent wins actually sets them up in a negative 43-100-1 ATS home favorite letdown situation. Itâ€™s also not a stretch to think the Chargers were more than a little distracted this week with half the team being forced to evacuate their homes and then practice in Arizona. Houston has always been an up and down team but theyâ€™re predictable that way as the Texans are just 8-18 ATS lifetime after a victory and 22-9-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses (21-7-1 ATS as an underdog), so I expect them to bounce-back from consecutive losses with a good effort this week. The line value alone makes Houston a good play here and Iâ€™ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog of 10 points or more and for 2-Stars as an underdog from 9 Â½ to 7 Â½ points.

CHICAGO (-5.0) 28 Detroit 24

10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-28 - Stats Matchup

2-Star Best Bet Over 45 points or less

I donâ€™t really like either side in this game, as my math model favors Chicago by 4 points and there are insignificant situations favoring both sides, but the OVER looks like a good bet. Chicagoâ€™s defense is far from the dominating group they had last season, as injuries to defensive backs Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher and changes along the defensive line have led to a leaky defense that has allowed an average of 6.1 yards per play and 25.2 points in 6 games since Brown was injured (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). Detroitâ€™s offense is 0.4 yppl better than average with Jon Kitna under center and the Lions have averaged 23.3 points per game despite facing teams that have combined to allow an average of just 18.9 points per game on defense. Chicagoâ€™s offense was a problem early in the season with Rex Grossman at quarterback but the Bears have averaged 26.0 points per game and are only 0.2 yppl worse than average in Brian Grieseâ€™s 4 starts. Chicagoâ€™s offense should move at a better than average clip in this game given that the Lions have given up 5.6 yppl and 28.5 points per game this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl and 19.5 points against an average defense). Chicago also routinely gets points from their great special teams and my math model projects 54 Â½ points in this game. I havenâ€™t released too many over/under Best Bets but Iâ€™ve been using my math model since 1999 and the Over has been a 62% winner when my math model projects a difference from the total of 6 points or more (5.8 actually) and the total is less than 48 points (the record is now 86-53-3, including 7-1 Over this season). Chicago has also gone 17-8-1 Over the last two seasons, including 11-2 Over at home and 16-4-1 Over as a favorite or pick.

Over 45 points or less in a 2-Star Best Bet

SAN FRANCISCO 20 New Orleans (-2.5) 16

01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-28 - Stats Matchup

As I said last week, the Saints arenâ€™t suddenly a good team because they finally won a game or two. The Saints were out-gained 5.5 yards per play to 6.2 yppl in their win over Seattle and they didnâ€™t cover last week in their win over the Falcons. New Orleans is still struggling on offense (just 4.8 yppl for the season against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and their defense has been horrible this season â€“ allowing 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. The Saints defense has actually gotten better with CB Jason David sidelined the last 3 weeks, as David was beaten with regularity in the 3 games that he played. New Orleans is only 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively with their current lineup, so they have an edge over a struggling 49ersâ€™ offense that rates at 0.9 yppl worse than average with Alex Smith behind center (heâ€™s back from his injured shoulder this week). The 49ers have been 0.2 yppl better than average defensively this season and these teams are pretty close from the line of scrimmage while the 49ers have a significant edge in special teams. My math model favors the 49ers by 3 Â½ points at home and the Niners apply to a solid 190-103-6 ATS statistical profile indicator while the Saints apply to a negative 23-53-3 ATS road letdown situation. Iâ€™ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and Iâ€™d take the 49ers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 (-120 or better odds)

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:34pm
0 likes

Ferringo

NFL SELECTIONS

4.5-Unit Play. Take #215 Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)

Note: This was our Gridiron Game of the Week until we altered the rating on the New Mexico game. That is college play is our official GOTW.

The Steelers have dominated the Bengals recently, posting a 6-0 ATS mark against their rivals in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh is 12-6 ATS coming off a SU loss and I think theyâ€™re smarting from their tough one in Denver last week. The Bengals canâ€™t tackle. They canâ€™t defend. And theyâ€™re going to be without Rudi Johnson and tackle Willie Anderson. I think the Steelers will outmuscle the Bungles yet again and this one will be decided by double-digits.

4-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #209 New York Giants (-3) over Miami AND Take #212 Tennessee (-0.5) over Oakland

The Dolphins have completely mailed it in and will now be without Zach Thomas, Ronnie Brown, and Reynaldo Hill. The Giants should have their way with the Miami secondary and New Yorkâ€™s blitz-happy defense should overwhelm Cleo Lemon. I donâ€™t mind laying the Giants (-9.5) if youâ€™re not into the teasers. As for Tennessee, the Raiders have covered the spread in only 31 percent of their last 70 games overall. They are 8-17 ATS against a team with a winning record and they are 15-37 ATS against the AFC. Tennesseeâ€™s rushing attack should decimate the leagueâ€™s worst rush defense, and getting Vince Young back should be a boon to this team all around.

3.5-Unit Play. Take â€˜Overâ€™ 37.0 Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)

The â€˜overâ€™ is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series and is 10-3 in New Yorkâ€™s last 13 divisional games. Over their past 10 meetings there have been an average of 39.2 points scored and the â€˜overâ€™ is 8-3 ATS in meetings played before Week 10. These two teams have two of the five worst defenses in the league and surrender a combined 49.4 points per game. There is a little wind weâ€™ll have to deal with in this one, but I donâ€™t see it hampering either offense. Look for another low-scoring first half before the fireworks come out in the second half.

3-Unit Play. Take â€˜Underâ€™ 37.5 Philadelphia at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)

These teams have combined to go â€˜underâ€™ in 9 of their 12 games, with each posting an absurd, anomaly game (Phillyâ€™s 56-21 vs. Detroit and Minnyâ€™s 34-31 vs. Chicago). Throw out those two contests and these teams are 90 percent â€˜underâ€™, with Minnesota averaging 32.8 combined points in those five games and Philadelphia just 28.0 in its other five games. These are two of the best rush defenses in the league and two of the worst red-zone offenses in the league. Weâ€™re above a key number and weâ€™ll be looking for another dogfight.

2-Unit Play. Take #206 Chicago (-5) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)

1-Unit Play. First Half: Take #206 Chicago (-3) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)

The Bears are 3-1 ATS against the Lions in Soldiers Field and Detroit is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games on grass. The Lions got maimed by both Philadelphia and Washington in road games this year and I think their woes continue. Remember, the Bears were beating Detroit 13-3 without six defensive starters and with Brian Griese making his first start. The Bears are much more confident and after not forcing a turnover in two straight games I think Chicagoâ€™s defense is due for a big day.

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:35pm
0 likes

Kelso Sturgeon (Newsletter)

LSU by 13 over ALABAMAâ€”It is impossible to watch LSU (7-1) play and not conclude that this is a team on a mission and that mission is to play for the national championship. The Tigers are relentless in everything they do and appear to have the talent to simply wear down and overwhelm a good Alabama (6-2) team that has for years struggled against LSU. In the last five meetings between these two teams in Tuscaloosa, Alabama is just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS. It also is of note Alabama coach Nick Saban threw LSU to the wolves a few seasons ago to take the Miami Dolphin head coaching jobâ€”a fact that gives LSU even more incentive to win.

KANSAS STATE by 24 over Baylorâ€”Itâ€™s homecoming in Manhattan and all the pieces seem to be in place for the Wildcats (4-3) to turn up the heat and play one of their best games of the season. First of all Kansas State comes into this one off a last second 41-39 loss at Oklahoma State and figures to be in a rather hostile mood. Then there is the issue of talentâ€”and Kansas State has most of it. Baylor (3-5) has many issues at the quarterback spot and that more than anything else has contributed to four consecutive lop-sided losses to other Big 12 teams. Kansas State has an explosive offense and there is no reason to think Baylor, which has scored just 10 points in three of its last four games, can keep up.

BYU by 17 over SAN DIEGO STATEâ€”BYU (5-2) is locked in a fierce battle with Air Force over which team will win the Mountain West Conference championship, so donâ€™t look for the Cougars to show any mercy to San Diego State. BYU is 3-0 in MWC play, compared to Air Force at 4-1, and brings to San Diego an offense that is getting better with each game, and with a defense that has given up but 7, 14 and 6 points in three of its last four games. There is no question San Diego State played much better last week in losing to a good New Mexico team, 20-17, but simply is not physical enough, or deep enough, to go the distance in this one.

South Florida by 10 over CONNECTICUTâ€”There is no doubt Connecticut (6-1) is the surprise of the Big East this season and one gets the impression we have not yet seen the best of the Huskies. But, with that said, Connecticut is catching a superior South Florida (6-1) team coming off its first loss of the season and that spells nothing but trouble for the Huskies, who upset Louisville, 21-17, last week. South Florida has dramatically superior talent and my figures say the Bulls, with the 11th best defense in the country, and with an explosive offense, should be able to manhandle this young Connecticut team. Look for UConn to stay close for a while but to wilt as South Florida keeps the pressure on.

MISSOURI by 35 over Iowa Stateâ€”Missouri (6-1) is another team on a mission and just might be the best team in the Big 12, even though it has a 41-31 loss at Oklahoma marring its record. The Tigers have shown in recent blow-out home wins over Nebraska, 41-6, and last week Texas Tech, 41-10, this is a serious football team with big ambitions. I realize Iowa State (1-7) showed plenty of grit and played quite well last week in its 17-7 home loss to Oklahoma and this is a big negative for the Cyclones in this one. Young, struggling teams such as Iowa State simply do not have the goods to play two bang-up games in a row. This one has blow-out written all over it.

VANDERBILT by 21 over Miami-Ohioâ€”Miami-Oh (4-4) could not have found a tougher time to meet Vanderbilt (4-3), a team that is trying to get to six wins and become bowl eligible for the first time since 1982. The Commodores are playing their best football right now and come into this game off a stunning 17-6 win at nationally ranked South Carolina and know they remain in a must win situation in this one. This Miami team is not to be confused with the good Miami teams of the past. While it has won three of its last four games, it comes into this off a 24-17 loss at Temple, giving one some insight into my assessment of its ability. There will be no let-down in Nashville and Vanderbilt should dominate.

Best Of The Rest

WISCONSIN by 10 over Indiana

WAKE FOREST by 13 over North Carolina

MICHIGAN by 42 over Minnesota

BUFFALO by 3 over Akron

Kansas by 4 over TEXAS A&M

Louisiana Tech by 10 over UTAH STATE

EASTERN MICHIGAN by 7 over Western Michigan

EAST CAROLINA by 21 over UAB

N.C. STATE by 4 over Virginia

TEXAS by 17 over Nebraska

NEVADA by 24 over Idaho

South Carolina by 4 over TENNESSEE

Ohio State by 7 over PENN STATE

ARIZONA STATE by 7 over California

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:35pm
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USC at Oregon

By: The Champs at #1 Sports

Southern California (6-1, 3-1 PAC 10, #12 BCS) accomplished itâ€™s most decisive victory of the 2007 season with a 38-0 win at Notre Dame last Saturday. They get back to conference play this week, healthier than they have been in a while. The Trojans have battled health issues all season with 23 key players missing games this season, including 11 starters, but they get a major impact player back this week in two-time All-American 6â€™5â€ 305 senior LT Sam Baker. Baker rejoins the crew of 6â€™4â€ 285 junior LG Jeff Byers, 6â€™5â€ 305 senior C Matt Spanos, 6â€™4â€ 330 senior RG Alatini Malu, and 6â€™5â€ 305 senior RT Drew Radovich who have pounded out 202.3 rushing yards per game at a 5.2 yard per carry clip led by the Trojan back trio of 6â€™1â€ 220 senior Chauncey Washington (96 for 426 and 6 TD), 6â€™0â€ 210 sophomore Stafon Johnson (54 for 425 and 4 TD), and 6â€™0â€ 180 freshman Joe McKnight (36 for 219 and TD). Pass protection has been a little more suspect for the quarterbacks, 6â€™3â€ 225 sophomore Mark Sanchez (42 of 72 for 388 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT) and 6â€™3â€ 215 senior John David Booty (113 for 175 and 1239 yards, 12 TD, 8 INT). 10 sacks and 12 interceptions against this schedule for a team with this type of run/pass balance are a direct result of injuries along the line, and whoever gets the call at the trigger (Sanchez started the last two games while Booty healed his broken finger) this week will certainly benefit from the return of LT Baker. Given the time, Southern Californiaâ€™s receivers are good enough to improve on their numbers of 232.4 passing yard per contest and 17 receiving touchdowns with 6â€™3â€ 210 sophomore WR Vidal Hazelton (22 for 261 and 3 TD), 6â€™5â€ 220 junior WR Patrick Turner (32 for 331 and TD), and 6â€™4â€ 225 freshman WR David Ausberry (17 for 155) stretching the field instead of 6â€™4â€ 250 senior TE Fred Davis (34 for 538 and 5 TD) and 6â€™1â€ 225 freshman FB Stanley Havili (19 for 93 and 3 TD) working underneath.

Head Coach Pete Carrollâ€™s (71-13 in 7th season at USC) defense was hyped in the preseason as the best group in college football history but have fallen short of that mark with a 252.1 yards (#3 nationally) and 16.6 points allowed (#10 nationally) per game so far. These numbers are impressive to be sure, and good enough to be considered the PAC 10â€™s best unit, but the defense can be had as Nebraska (31 points), Washington (24), and Stanford (24) have shown. Defensive Coordinator/Defensive Line Coach Nick Holtâ€™s best squad is up front with 6â€™5â€ 270 senior LDE Lawrence Jackson (25 T, 5 TFL, 4 S), 6â€™2â€ 305 senior LDT Sedrick Ellis (27 T, 7 TFL, 5 Â½ S, FR), 6â€™5â€ 295 junior RDT Fili Moala (18 T, 3 TFL), and 6â€™6â€ 275 junior RDE Kyle Moore (25 T, 2 Â½ TFL, 1 Â½ S, 2 INT, FR, FF) stuffing opposing rushing games for just 64.2 yards per game while keying the pressure for 17 sacks by the Trojans this year. 6â€™3â€ 250 junior MLB Rey Maualuga (43 T, 5 Â½ TFL, 3 S) and 6â€™3â€ 235 junior WLB Keith Rivers (47 T, 3 Â½ TFL, 2 FR) make up one of the best backer tandems in the country, while the nationâ€™s most-physical safeties 6â€™4â€ 225 sophomore Taylor Mays (27 T, INT, FF) and 6â€™1â€ 225 junior Kevin Ellison (30 T, 2 Â½ TFL, 2 FF, INT) are walking highlight reels of thunderous hits and will be the key playmakers if the Trojans are to stop Oregonâ€™s rushing game.

Oregon (6-1, 3-1 PAC 10, #5 BCS) unleashed one of the most punishing displays of rushing the football in college football history on the Washington Huskies last week, racking up 465 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground in a 55-34 victory to remain just 1 game behind Arizona State (7-0, 4-0 PAC 10) and UCLA (5-2, 4-0 PAC 10) in the conference standings. First-year Offensive Coordinator Chip Kelly inherited a fine group of linemen from Gary Crowter (took same job at LSU) in 6â€™6â€ 322 junior LT Fenuki Tupou, 6â€™4â€ 310 senior LG Josh Tschrirgi (26 career starts), 6â€™5â€ 300 junior C Max Unger (32 career starts), 6â€™4â€ 308 junior RG Mark Lewis, and 6â€™7â€ 337 senior RT Geoff Swartz (30 career starts) who have paved the way for the nationâ€™s 3rd best rushing attack with 294.4 yards per game at a 6.0 yards per crack. Behind this wall, PAC 10 Offensive Player of the Week 5â€™11â€ 230 junior RB Jonathon Stewart (131 for 940 yards and 7 TD), 5â€™11â€ 195 sophomore RB Andre Crenshaw (48 for 269 and 3 TD), and 5â€™10â€ 205 junior RB Jeremiah Johnson (54 for 344 and 5 TD) have powered for a ridiculous 195 first downs on the ground, the key feature in Oregonâ€™s attack that has scorched the scoreboard for 46.6 points per game. Head Coach Mike Bellottiâ€™s (103-49 in 13th season at Oregon) passing game may be the second option, but dual-threat 6â€™4â€ 205 senior QB Dennis Dixon (138 of 199 for 1728 yards, 16 TD, 3 INT passing, 75 for 416 and 7 TD rushing) has made the most of his drops with a pass efficiency rating (162.34 for whatever that means to you) that ranks 4th in the nation. Amazingly, Dixon has passed for and rushed for at least one score in each game this season, with 6â€™5â€ 240 junior WR Jaison Williams (31 for 505 and 5 TD) leading the Ducks in all receiving categories. Of Oregonâ€™s 40 touchdown drives this season, 22 of them have taken less than 2 minutes off the clock, including seven that have lasted 18 seconds or less.

Defensive Coordinator Nick Aliottiâ€™s squad is pretty decent, allowing 22.6 points per game on 143.0 rushing and 253.3 passing yards, while making more than their share of big plays with 7 fumble recoveries, 9 interceptions, and 19 sacks. 6â€™2â€ 255 junior LDE Nick Reed (29 T, 13 Â½ TFL, 7 Â½ S) is one of the nationâ€™s most productive rush ends, and 6â€™2â€ 220 junior SLB Jerome Boyd (38 T, 6 TFL, S, FR, FF, INT) has a nose for the ball, but Oregonâ€™s best defensive unit is clearly found in the secondary. 6â€™0â€ 181 senior FS Mathew Harper (66 T, 2 TFL, 2 S, FF, INT), 6â€™0â€ 210 junior SS Patrick Chung (60 T, 3 Â½ TFL, FF, 2 INT, 2 blocked punts), 6â€™0â€ 208 sophomore LCB Jarius Byrd (34 T, 3 TFL, S, 2 FR, 3 INT), and 6â€™0â€ 185 sophomore RCB Walter Thurmond III (60 T, 3 TFL, FR, INT) have each started all seven games this season and are big-time ball-hawkers to the man. This Saturdayâ€™s game against Southern California will mark the 53rd consecutive sellout at Autzen Stadium (field turf surface, 59,000+).

Free winner from #1 Sports: In most situations where a conferenceâ€™s best defense meets a conferenceâ€™s best offense we would lean toward the stoppers but not here. The Ducksâ€™ schedule currently ranks as the 6th toughest in the nation, while the Trojans are living off a reputation earned by consecutive seasons with Top-4 AP finishes, BCS Bowls, Pac 10 Titles, and at least 11 wins - each of which will be brought to an end in Eugene Saturday. Take Oregon â€“3 to improve your season article mark to 6-3.

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:36pm
0 likes

Ohio State at Penn State

By: Big Jay of Platinum Plays

Head coach Jim Tressel takes his #1 ranked and undefeated Buckeyes to University Park and Beaver Stadium to take on Joe Paterno's #25 ranked Nittany Lions. You can rest assured that Beaver Stadium will be filled to capacity (107,282) as Ohio State faces it's first real test since moving up to the top of the rankings. The Buckeyes (8-0/4-0) will not have an easy road to finishing the season undefeated, winning the Big Ten and staying on top of the BCS standings, as their last four games are against the conference's best teams. Ohio State first travels to Penn State, then have Wisconsin and Illinois at home, and finish their regular season on the road against Michigan in "The Big House." Penn State (6-2 / 3-2) is currently tied for second in the Big Ten with Illinois, and a victory here and a successful finish to the season could land the Nittany Lions in one of the better bowl games at season's end. It seems to be a weekly occurence that a team or teams in the top ten of the rankings fall to defeat, and now we'll find out if it the Buckeyes' turn.

What a great job Tressel has done with this year's Buckeyes. They are not only sitting on top of the Big Ten, but the nation also. This was supposed to have been a rebuilding year for Ohio State while Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan duked it out for the conference title. But Tressel again has made the Buckeyes the team to beat. A lot of the credit to Ohio State's success rides with Jr QB Todd Boeckman. Boeckman is the anti-Troy Smith and stands 6'5" and weighs in at 243 lbs. He's continued to improve as the season rolls on, as his 18 TDs vs 7 Ints would attest, and is completing passes at a 66% clip. Soph RB Chris Wells (863 yds/5.8 avg/7 Tds) carries his share of the offensive load, and Jr WR Brian Robiskie (37 rec/728 yds/7 TDs) gives Boeckman an experienced target to throw to. However, it's the Buckeyes defense, (ranked #1) giving up 7.9 pts/gm, from which their success begins and ends. Led by Jr LB James Larinaitis, it was the stop unit which sustained the Buckeyes while the offense gained confidence.

While coaches Joe Paterno and Florida State's Bobby Bowden battle each other on a weekly basis for the most wins ever by a college head coach, a victory over the #1 ranked Buckeyes would be a special memory for the Pennsylvania icon, affectionately known as JoePa. This season marked Paterno's 58th season coaching at Penn State and his 42nd as head coach. The Nittany Lions' losses this season came on consectutive weeks on the road to Michigan and Illinois. Sr QB Anthony Morelli (1739 yds/13 TDs/7 ints) has never lived up to his billing as the greatest quarterback recruit to come to Penn State, but has been fairly proficient. With one of the best groups of pass catchers in the nation (Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams and Terrell Golden), more was expected from the passing game. Sr RB Rodney Kinlaw (728 yds/6 TDs) has taken over the bullwork of the ground game after Sr Austin Scott was suspended with off the field legal troubles. The Lions' defense ranks 2nd in the Big Ten giving up 15.0 pts/gm, which is 4th in the nation. Jr K Kevin Kelly broke the record for field goals as a Nittany Lion with three against Indiana in Penn State's last game, and may well have a major part in this Saturday's game against the Buckeyes. As great a career as JoePa has had in his lengthy run at Penn State, it's become tarnished in the last couple years by off the field problems with his players. Paterno is 80 years old and any problems with his program, on or off the field, and questions arise as to if he's too old to be running the football program. A victory over the #1 ranked team in the nation would relegate any questions about Paterno's age and ability to the background.

Free winner from Platinum Plays: This game opened with Ohio State being favored by 3Â½ with a total of 41. Ohio State remains a 3Â½ favorite, while the total has dropped to 39Â½. I believe this game will be a physical, bone-jarring Big Ten defensive exhibition, while on the offensive side of the ball, each team will be conservative as to not commit the big turnover. Despite the low total, Platinum's Big Ten Pigskin Prediction is Under 39Â½ points.

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:36pm
0 likes

Ben Burns

Situational Game of the Year-Saturday

UTAH STATE

Blowout Game of the Year

LOUISVILLE

3-Game Executive Report Saturday

TEXAS A&M

MISSISSIPPI STATE

IOWA

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:37pm
0 likes

Jose Gonzalez gives out a pick in the Reno Gazette-Journal every Thursday. We posted his writeup the last two weeks as he was on a run. That run ended last week. He is now 7-1, which for this college football season is very decent.

Here is his writeup:

Afther Week 8, the gap narrows; Manos picks WAC game

LAS VEGAS

FAU -6

Louisiana-Monroe at Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 1 p.m. (pacific time)

The Florida Atlantic Owls will look to keep a perfect record in the Sun Belt Conference when they take on the War Hawks of La.-Monroe.

The Owls are 3-0 in conference play, winning by an average of 10 points per game. At home, FAU has covered the spread in all three games, including a win over Minnesota.

The Owls are led by the charismatic head coach Howard Schnellenberger, who is known for taking distraught programs into the national spotlight. He was responsible for transforming a dismal Miami Hurricane program in 1979 to a national-championship team in just four seasons.

He then took the Louisville program in 1985 that had been perennial losers for a period of six years to a national ranking of No. 11 in 1995. In 1998, Schnellenberger started a program from scratch at FAU, and now the Owls are on the verge of a conference championship and bowl game appearance.

The Owls are led by one of the best unknown quarterbacks in the country in sophomore Rusty Smith. He has thrown for 16 touchdowns and just three interceptions. FAU is a perfect 6-0 against the spread when it scores 28 or more points, over the last three seasons.

At home, Smith is guiding the Owls to 32 points a game and will be facing a War Hawk defense that is surrendering 39.5 points a game on the road.

Defensively, the Owls are led by freshman defensive back Tavious Polo, who leads the country with seven interceptions. As a team, FAU leads the country with a +18 in turnover margin, taking the ball away an amazing 25 times. Senior linebacker Cecil Sincere also leads the conference with 70 tackles. If the Owls get an early lead, LA-Monroe will be playing right into the hands of the Owls' ball-hawk defense.

Jorge Gonzalez

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:37pm
0 likes

cowherd

penn state +4

florida -7.5

lville -9.5

oregon -3

cal +3

texas a&m +2.5

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:38pm
0 likes

Alabama is 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games with LSU.

Arizona is 2-3 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at Washington.

Arizona State is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games with California and in its last 4 meetings with the Golden Bears is 0-4 in both categories.

Boston College is just 2-7 SU in its last 9 games with Virginia Tech but stands 6-2-1 ATS in those games.

BYU is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last 9 games with San Diego State.

Clemson is 6-4 SU in its last 10 games with Maryland, but just 3-6-1 ATS in those contests.

Florida is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games with Georgia.

Fresno State is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last 6 games with Boise State.

Tulane is just 4-3 SU in its last 7 games with Tulane but is 5-1-1 ATS in those outings.

Middle Tennessee State is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last 6 games with North Texas.

Mississippi is 2-8 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games with Auburn.

Nebraska, riding a 3-game losing streak, is 1-5 SU and 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games with Texas.

North Carolina is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last 4 games at Wake Forest.

Northern Illinois is 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games with Toledo.

Northwestern is 2-8 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games with Purdue.

Notre Dame is 5-0 SU and 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games with Navy.

Ohio University is 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games with Bowling Green.

Ohio State is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last 5 games at Penn State.

Oklahoma is 7-3 SU but just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games with Texas A&M.

Oklahoma State is 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games with Texas.

Oregon State is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games with Stanford.

Rutgers is 0-10 SU but 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games with West Virginia.

South Carolina is 1-4 SU but 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at Tennessee.

SMU is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games with Tulsa.

Syracuse is 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at Pittsburgh.

UCLA is 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games with Washington State.

USC is 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at Oregon.

Wyoming is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games with UNLV.

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:39pm
0 likes

Greg Roberts-

Auburn -18 Over Ole Miss

Houston -6 Over UTEP

Texas A&M +2.5 Over Kansas

Georgia +7.5 Over Florida

Southern Cal +3 Over Oregon

South Carolina +2.5 Over Tennessee

Louisville -9.5 Over Pittsburgh

Maryland +2.5 Over Clemson

Tulane -1.5 Over Memphis

Washington State +6 Over UCLA

West Virginia -6 Over Rutgers

--------------------------------

Steelers -3.5 Over Bengals

__________________

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:41pm
0 likes

kelso....

50 mid tenn st

10 east carolina

5 rutgers

5 oregon

5 south florida

posted by phantom

Oct. 26 2007 3:41pm
0 likes

pointwise phones

4* South Florida

4* Penn State

3*'s oregon Texas, Fla.atl. Geo. Ariz.St K.st Oreg. St. Missori Unc.

Reply With Quote

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:22am
0 likes

ultra spts

7 south carolina

5 ariz. st

4 ariz.

4 penn.st.

3 memphis

3 georgia

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:23am
0 likes

Donnie Black SEC GOY...Georgia

Reply With Quote

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:23am
0 likes

PLATINUM PLAYS - College Lock of the Year- Texas A&M Aggies +3

Best Bets-

the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS - 13Â½ OVER

the Colorado Buffalos

the MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS - 3 OVER

the Iowa Hawkeyes

the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS - 3 OVER

the Kent State Golden Flashes

the MARYLAND TERRAPINS + 3Â½ OVER

the Clemson Tigers

the UCLA BRUINS - 6 OVER

the Washington State Cougars

the DUKE BLUE DEVILS + 17Â½ OVER

the Florida State Seminoles

the COLORADO ROCKIES/Josh Fogg + 125 OVER

the Boston Red Sox/Daisuke Matsuzaka

the Boston Red Sox & Colorado Rockies

OVER the posted total of 10Â½ runs

Reply With Quote

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:23am
0 likes

pure locks comp pick is s.carolina so the member pick must be akron. also matchs m. lawrence 100% super system play

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:24am
0 likes

BEN BURNS

COLLEGE SATURDAY

UNDER Uconn/south florida

Game: South Florida vs. Connecticut Game Time: 10/27/2007 3:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on UCONN and South Florida to finish UNDER the total. This is a huge game in the Big East featuring a pair of teams which pride themselves on playing tough defense. Indeed, the Huskies are allowing only 12.7 points per game (11 at home!) this season while the Bulls are allowing just 17.7. Despite last week's game sneaking above the number, the Bulls have still seen the UNDER go 10-5 the last 15 times they were laying points. Meanwhile, after holding Virginia to a mere 17 points two weeks ago, the Huskies also limited the high-powered Louisville Cardinals to 17 last Friday. Those results brought the UNDER to 5-0 the last five times that Connecticut played in the month of October. It's also interesting to note that the Huskies have been listed as underdogs three times now this season and have allowed 14, 16 and 17 points. While Connecticut snuck past Louisville last week, South Florida lost a tough one vs. Rutgers. That's worth mentioning as the Bulls have seen the UNDER go 7-4 the last 11 times they were coming off a conference loss while during the same stretch the Huskies have seen the UNDER go 5-1 when coming off a conference win. Yes, last season's game was relatively high-scoring. However, that was at Tampa. When the teams faced each other here at Storrs in 2005, they finished with a mere 25 combined points. While we won't get the frigid 33 degree temperatures that game was played in, it appears probable (currently 80% chance of rain/thunder) that the weather will be less than perfect. I'm expecting a defensive battle which stays below the total. *October Total of the Month

please check back for added plays

please check back for added plays

UTAH STATE

Game: Louisiana Tech vs. Utah St. Game Time: 10/27/2007 3:00:00 PM Prediction: Utah St. Reason: I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. I won with the Aggies last week as they covered in a 3-point loss vs. Nevada. The Wolfpack were coming off an extremely painful (4 overtimes vs. Boise St.) loss and I felt they were in a difficult "situation." Now 3-0 ATS their last three games, this week, the Aggies face another team which is in a difficult situation. Like Nevada the week before, the Bulldogs had their hearts broken by Boise State. While it didn't go to overtime, the Bulldogs played the Broncos tough with the game going back and forth for 3 1/2 quarters. They came up short in the end though as Boise was able to pull away in the final minutes. This was the second time this season that the Bulldogs played an elite team from the WAC tough. You may recall that they lost by only one point vs. Hawaii earlier in the season. After playing so hard, only to come up short, they didn't have much left the following week and lost by 30 points. With this afternoon's over/under line currently sitting at 52, it's also worth mentioning the Bulldogs, after losing their most recent road game by a score of 24-0, are now just 1-7 ATS the last eight times they played a road game with an over/under line range from 49.5 to 56 and a money-burning 2-10 ATS the last dozen times they were coming off a game which finished above the number. Granted, the Aggies aren't exactly an elite opponent. However, they should be an extremely hungry one. That's because they only have two home games left this season and the other one is against Boise State. That makes this their best chance at earning a victory and avoiding a winless season. As evidenced by their recent "ATS" success, the Aggies have still been playing hard. Coach Brent Guy says of his team: "I've said this publicly and I've told the team this: I believe we are a better football team, top to bottom, than two years ago when we won three games and last year when we won one game." Note that the Aggies returned a whopping 19 starters from the team which put up 35 points at LA Tech last season. The Aggies are 9-3 ATS their last 12 home games played in the month of October and 7-2 ATS their last nine October games overall. Facing a Bulldogs team, coming off a difficult loss, which has dropped five straight WAC road games (outscored 228-70!) look for the Aggies to seize the opportunity and grab their first win of the year. *Situational Game of the Year

TEXAS A&M

Game: Kansas vs. Texas A&M Game Time: 10/27/2007 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Texas A&M Reason: I'm taking the points with Texas A&M. The Jayhawks have an undefeated record and a lofty national ranking. However, their shedule has been relatively soft. Additionally, they're facing a Texas A&M team which is undefeated at home (5-0) and which has always given them problems. Indeed, the Aggies have won seven straight meetings in the series and have never lost to Kansas Coach Mark Mangino. The Aggies only two losses came at Texas Tech and at Miami and they absolutely crushed Nebraska, at Lincoln, last week. While they rarely lose at home, the Aggies almost never never get blown out here. In fact, their last two losses here (both last season vs. Oklahoma and Nebraska) both came by a single point. I mention those games as, like today, the Aggies were slight home underdogs in each, going 2-0 ATS. Look for them to carry positive momentum forward from the big win at Nebraska as they continue their dominance of Mangino and the Jayhawks by scoring the minor upset.

MISSISSIPPI STATE

Game: Mississippi St. vs. Kentucky Game Time: 10/27/2007 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Mississippi St. Reason: I'm taking the points with MISSISSIPPI STATE. The Bulldogs won 22-7 when they hosted the Wildcats in 2004. The Wildcats bounced back to win the next two meetings. However, both were extremely close as those victories came by just six and three points. The Wildcats, who have some key players banged-up, are coming off a trio of huge games (South Carolina, LSU, Florida) and may already be looking ahead to next week's bye. While it won't be easy, I feel that the Bulldogs are capable of winning this game. As mentioned, last year's game came down to the wire and this is an even better Mississippi State team. At 1-3 in conference play (4-4 overall) coach Croom had this to say about the importance of the game: "It's another great challenge and another great opportunity. That's what we've been talking to our players about. If you're really serious about putting ourselves in a position where we can have a chance to go into a bowl game, we've got to go up and play and do everything we possibly can to win this ball game." While last week's final score (38-13) at West Virginia wasn't pretty, the Bulldogs actually outscored the Mountaineers from the second quarter on. As they have done for three straight years and with their bowl hopes on the line, look for the Bulldogs to give the Wildcats all they can handle.

IOWA

Game: Michigan St. vs. Iowa Game Time: 10/27/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Iowa Reason: I'm taking the points with IOWA. I feel that the wrong team is favored here. The home team has won seven straight games in this series with the Spartans last win here coming way back in 1989. After knocking off Illinois in their last game here, the Hawkeyes are now a healthy 20-6 the last 26 times they hosted a Big 10 opponent. The Spartans played the Buckeyes tough last week. However, I won't be surprised if they "left something on the field" with that effort. Note that the Spartans are just 1-5 the last six times they played the second of back to back road games and they're also a money-burning 0-6 ATS the last six times they were coming off a conference loss. The Spartans are also 1-4 their last road games and 6-14 their last 20. This is a massive game as the Hawkeyes need three wins in their last four games to keep a six-year bowl streak alive. "We still have a chance to make this a miraculous season," linebacker Mike Klinkenborg told the Des Moines Register. "Attitudes aren't down. We're not calling it quits." The Hawkeyes have won five straight home games in this series including 38-16 and 44-16 blowouts the last two. Look for them to score the upset, keeping their bowl hopes alive.

LOUISVILLE

Game: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Louisville Game Time: 10/27/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Louisville Reason: I'm laying the points with LOUISVILLE. I wasn't surprised that Pittsburgh knocked off Cincinnati last week as I used the Panthers as my "shocker of the month." Off that big upset win and facing a team which has dominated them, I expect the Panthers to find things significantly tougher this afternoon. Indeed, the Panthers have lost six straight in this series with the last win coming way back in 1983. Last year, at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals won 48-24. Note that Brohm threw for 337 yards and four touchdowns in that game. The Cardinals won by a similar margin (42-20) when the teams mets here in Louisville in 2005. Off a tough loss to Connecticut and playing their homecoming game, the Cardinals would love nothing more than a blowout victory to ease some of the sting from this year's disappointing season. On his team's chances of making it the postseason, coach Steve Kragthorpe simply said: We're at home against Pittsburgh. we've got to win the game." Note that while the Cards are a profitable 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were coming off a loss (4-0 ATS last four after a conference loss) the Panthers are a money-burning 4-14 ATS the last 18 times they were coming off back to back home games. Neither team's defense has been very strong. However, the Cardinals have a much better offense. In fact, while Louisville is averaging a whopping 50.2 points per game and 631 yards at home, the Panthers are managing a mere 13.5 points and 299 yards on the road. Not surprisingly, the Panthers have lost both their road games and are now 7-13 SU/ATS their last 20 away from home, 6-12 ATS their last 18 times in the underdog role. As they have done in all their home games, facing a highly suspect Panthers' defense, look for the Cardinals to put up huge points once again, more than enough to cover the reasonable number. *ncaa blowout game of year

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:25am
0 likes

Tom Scott 5* Texas Tech.

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:25am
0 likes

Chip Chrimbes A-Play

Megabuck Play A Day - Penn State

Chip Shots - Texas A&M, UCONN, NC State

Reply With Quote

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:25am
0 likes

MARC LAWRENCE PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB plays

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10/27/07 - CFB

DOWN RIGHT DEFENSIVE

PLAY ON any college home dog from Game Five out that allows 2.5 < YPR

if they are off back-to-back wins in which they scored 36 > points

and allowed 31 < points in their last game.

ATS W-L Record SInce 1980: 16-0

Play On: Penn State

Rationale: Quality defensive home dogs bring a lot to the table,

especially when they have an offense that is capable of putting

points on the scoreboard.

10/28//07 - NFL

HEINOUS HOME DOG

PLAY ON any NFL home dog off back-to-back SUATS losses if they

started the season 0-4 and lost to a division foe in their last game.

ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 20-0

Play On: St. Louis Rams

Rationale: NFL home dogs bring out their best after they've become

thoroughly embarrassed. They also command value frm the oddsmakers

because of their plight

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:26am
0 likes

Arizona at Washington Oct 27 2007 3:00PM

PICK: Arizona

Your pick will be graded at: 3.5 Sportsbook

EXPERT: Matt Fargo

TITLE: 92.9% Pac Ten GOM

REASON FOR PICK: ***Pac Ten Game of the Month*** What started out as a promising season for Washington has turned into a nightmare yet again. After starting the year 2-0, the Huskies have lost five straight games and only one of those was close, a tight three-point loss to USC. That was a game it could have won and it obviously has left a lasting impression as the two games since then have been complete disasters. Since outgaining Syracuse by 237 yards in the first game of the year, Washington has been outgained in every game since and by an average of 187.2 ypg.

It hasnâ€™t exactly been a good year for Arizona either but at least it has been competitive. Three of the six losses have been by a touchdown or less and it has won the yardage battle in half of its eight games. The offense has been up and down but it now gets to face one of the worst defenses it has seen. Washingtonâ€™s defense has gotten shredded during the five-game losing streak, allowing at least 460 yards in every game and slipping to last in the Pac Ten in total defense.

Arizona has improved greatly on offense from a season ago. Its 25.4 ppg dwarf the team's 12.1 ppg at this point last season. The Wildcats have scored 13 more touchdowns than they did at this point last year and are logging about 127 more total yards per game. On the other side, Washington quarterback Jake Locker posted a career-high 257 passing yards in last week's loss to Oregon, but was intercepted four times. Of the conference's regular quarterbacks, Locker is last in completions, passing efficiency and passing yards.

Arizona running back Nick Grigsby will continue making his case for the Freshman All-Pac-10 team, now facing a unit thatâ€™s next to last nationally in run defense. The Huskies are struggling mightily against the run, allowing more than 300 ypg over their past five games including 465 last week against Oregon. An amazing eight different backs have rushed for more than 100 yards during that span against Washington. Grigsby rushed for 126 yards last week against Stanford.

The Wildcats are coming off a bad loss to Stanford where they were favored by close to two touchdowns and that sets up a great situation for Arizona. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games coming off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This situation is 26-2 ATS (92.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons including a 16-1 ATS mark (94.1 percent) over the last five years. Expect a big rebound for the Wildcats as their slim postseason hopes remain intact. Play Arizona Wildcats 2.5 Units

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:26am
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Marc Lawrence 100% CFB Super Pick Super Play - Saturday 10/27

Play On: Akron

Note: Zips take on the Bulls in a battle for first place in the MAC East Division race knowing they are 8-0 SU in this series, having been favored all eight games (-17 at home last year and 1-0 here two years ago). With Akron playing with a week of rest and Buffalo having allowed season high and 2-high yardage in its last two games, look for the Zips to improve to 5-0 SUATS as a conference dog off a loss under head coach J.D. Brookhart here today.

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 2:27am
0 likes

eddy June

10* Connecticut

10* Oregon

10* Texas A&M

15* Utah State

ATS Lock Club

15* Central Michigan

10 units on Penn State (+3 1/2) over Ohio State, 8:00

10 units on Louisiana Tech (-2 1/2) over Utah State, 3:00

2 unit parlay on both games

7 units on West Virginia (-6) over Rutgers, 12:00

5 units on Wake Forest (-5) over North Carolina, 12:00

5 units on California (+3) over Arizona State, 10:00

Brandon Lang

20 DIME

South Florida

Nevada

Kansas St

15 DIME

Ball St

Unlv

Utep

10 DIME

Purdue

Arizona St

Big Al Mcmordie

Big Chalk Blowout Goy

Oregon State

Big 12 Goy

Texas A&m

Big East Revenge Goy

Uconn

Pac 10 Gom

Oregon

4* Huge Gom

Psu

Root,

College GOY is UCONN,

Seabastian

20* Georgia

20* Ark St.

20* Iowa

20* Utah

20* UVA

20* Louisville

50* NC

50* Tenn

50* Texas AM

100* Penn St. (buy up to +4)

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 12:21pm
0 likes

Nationwide

Top Play Auburn

Reg Play Louis Wash Utep Scarunder Ohio St Under

Root Saturday

Chairman - Arizona

Millionaire - U Conn

Money Maker - Miss St

No Limit - NC St

Insider Circle - Iowa

Billionaire - Tex A&M

Lenny Stevens

20 SEC GOY South Car

20 MD

10 NCST Tulsa Cal

Lt Profits

2 Rutgers

Color Over

Uab Under

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 12:26pm
0 likes

SERVICE REPORT

ATS Lock Club................10*Penn State & Louisiana Tech

........................................7*West Virginia

........................................5*Wake Forest & California

........................................4*Clemson, Arkansas St & Virginia

Big Ten Sports................Upset Game Of The Year: Penn State

Brandon Lang.................30*Oregon State

.......................................20*South Florida, Nevada & Kansas State

.......................................15*Ball State, UNLV & UTEP

.......................................10*Purdue & Arizona State

Chip Chirimbus...............Megabucks: Penn State

.......................................Chip Shot: Texas A&M

Dave Cokin.....................Under The Hat: Purdue

.......................................Window Play: Bowling Green & Oregon State

.......................................System Play: North Carolina & Penn State

.......................................Big Shot: Illinois

.......................................3*Clemson, Missouri & Colorado State

Director Sports...............Special: Arizona State

.......................................Top: Kansas & Kentucky

.......................................Regular: Arkansas, Auburn, Colorado & Florida

"Doc"..............................8*Penn State

Doctor Bob.....................3*Kansas, Wisconsin & Hawaii

......................................2*Auburn & Marshall

Frank Magliosa..............Wash State, Penn State, Arkansas State, NC State, Kent

Glen McGrew.................Parlay Of The Month: Georgia/Tennessee

Gold Sheet.....................Top: Auburn

......................................Regular: Wash State, UTEP, Louisville, SoCar/Tenn(U)

Guarantee Picks.............Florida

Jim Feist........................SEC Game Of The Year: Georgia

......................................Big 12 Game Of The Year: Kansas State

......................................Inner Circle: Texas A&M

......................................Platinum: Connecticut & North Carolina

......................................Personal Best: Washington St & Pittsburgh

......................................5*Texas Tech

......................................4*Mississipp i & Mississippi State

Joe Gavazzi(PPP)..........5*USC & Indy/Wisc(O)

......................................4*Texas A&M & South Carolina

......................................3*Wisconsin & Georgia

Kelso Sturgeon..............50*Middle Tennessee State

......................................10*East Carolina, Rutgers & South Florida

Las Vegas Sports...........10*Wisconsin, East Carolina & Louisville

Lenny Stevens................SEC Game Of The Year: South Carolina

.......................................20*Maryland

......................................10*Californi a, Tulsa & North Carolina State

LT Profits.......................Rutgers, Colo/TexTech(O) & UAB/EC(U)

Northcoast.....................Game Of The Month: Texas A&M

......................................4*West Virginia & Oregon State

......................................3*Louisville , Utah State & Washington State

Northcoast(Small Coll)...3*Western Michigan

Northcoast(Totals)..........3*USF/UConn(U) & Memphis/Tulane(O)

Pointwise.......................4*South Florida & Penn State

Purelock.........................Akron

Rocketman Sports..........5*Arizona

.......................................4*South Carolina & SMU

......................................3*Penn State

Rob Ferrigno..................6*South Carolina

Texas Sports Brokers.....10*Texas A&M 5*USC

Three Gs.........................Game Of The Year: South Florida

Underdog Sportsline......Top: No Texas, Colorado State & Rutgers

......................................Regular: Connecticut

VIP Lock Club................1000% Rutgers

.......................................500%Iowa

Winners Path..................ACC Game Of The Year: Florida State

.......................................Top: Iowa & Northern Illinois

.......................................Regular: Vanderbilt & Nevada

posted by phantom

Oct. 27 2007 12:35pm

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