GOLD SHEET
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28
Cleveland 28 - ST. LOUIS 20--With St. Louis injured at T, G, QB, RB & WR for a substantial portion of the season, it's Cleveland (28 ppg)--not the Rams--that has the high-flying offense this season, with QB Derek Anderson (14 TDP), WR Braylon Edwards (7 TDP), and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. (29 recs.). St. Louis (0-7) off to its worst start since the 1-12-1 Bob Waterfield/Harland Svare team of 1962. Battered QB Bulger endured 3 more ints. in last week's 33-6 smashing in Seattle.
(03-St. Louis -4' 26-20...SR: EVEN 10-10)
CHICAGO 31 - Detroit 16--First in-season revenge game of the NFL season, and Bears are guaranteed to be ready for this one after giving up an NFL-record 34 fourth-Q points in first meeting, blowing a 13-3 lead to lose 37-27! That was Brian Griese's first start for the Bears, and he contributed to the deluge with a key int. TD. Even though Chicago RB Cedric Benson (long run of only 16 yds. TY) a massive disappointment, Lions' recent road performances (losses by combined 90-24 tally at Philly & Wash.) point strongly toward Bears. Chicago "over" 4 of last 5 TY; 20-8-1 last 29.
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(06-CHI. 34-Det. 7...C.22-15 C.34/89 D.14/46 C.21/28/0/294 D.23/30/0/199 C.1 D.3)
(06-Chi. 26-DET. 21...C.22-18 C.30/116 D.18/67 D.27/45/0/260 C.26/45/0/238 C.0 D.1)
(07-DETROIT +2' 37-27; 06-CHICAGO -8 34-7, Chicago -5' 26-21...SR: Chicago 87-63-5)
Indianapolis 24 - CAROLINA 23--Will this game pair Peyton Manning vs. 43-year-old Vinny Testaverde? Vinny has 271 TD passes. While Peyton has 285 (plus the Jacksonville game) in about half the time. Carolina's pass rush (only four sacks!) way down TY, and Manning nearly unsackable, due largely to his quick reads. Still, Colts not a pointspread powerhouse as a road favorite (1-6-1 last 8 prior to Monday nighter vs. Jags). How much will that game vs. very physical Jacksonville and the short turnaround take out of the defending champs?
(03-Carolina +5 23-20 (OT)...SR: Carolina 3-0)
NY Giants 28 - Miami 24--Will a change of continents help winless Miami? (Remember, Dolphins are unbeaten at new Wembley Stadium!) Perhaps, as even though Miami continues to lose, the development of Cleo Lemon at QB in Cam Cameron's offense (59 points last two games) and increasing contributions of Ohio State rookie WR/KR Ted Ginn, Jr. suggest better days might be coming soon. Powerful veteran RB Jesse Chatman (73 YR last week) a serviceable fill-in for Ronnie Brown (check knee injury). Giants gleefully riding five-game winning streak. Will they take Miami too lightly on their NFL-provided "vacation" trip across the pond (DE Osi Umenyiora was born in London)? (at London, England)
(03-Miami +1 23-10...SR: NY Giants 3-2)
TENNESSEE 28 - Oakland 10--Will Kerry Collins (25 of 42, 280 YP; led last week's winning drive at Houston) start against his former team of 2004-05? One thing that is clear Tennessee's defense (14 ppg until last week's 36 at Houston) is vastly improved over LY (25 ppg in 2006; who needs Pacman?). Oakland's rush defense has often proven leaky TY, and its rush offense (54 ppg last two) has come to a near halt. Daunte Culpepper has been contained by S.D. & K.C. the last two weeks (24 total points). Titans a contender--with or without Vince (check status). (05-Oakland -1 34-25...SR: Oakland 27-17)
MINNESOTA 20 - Philadelphia 17--First meeting of Philly HC Andy Reid vs. his former off. coord. Brad Childress. Minny's erratic pass rush and coverage has helped produce the NFL's lowest-ranking pass defense (through Week Six). But Vikes' top-ranked ground assault (thanks to Adrian Peterson's 670 YR) likely to afford them valuable ball control, especially with ever-forceful G Hutchinson punching holes in the Eagles' DL. Philly 3-7-1 last 11 as road favorite; OL has allowed 25 sacks! What's up with that?
(04-PHILADELPHIA -3 27-16, PHILADELPHIA -8 27-14 (Playoffs)...SR: Minnesota 11-10)
Pittsburgh 24 - CINCINNATI 16--Steelers have covered last six visits to Cincy. And they got much healthier during their bye week a game ago, with WRs Ward & Holmes and SS Polamalu all returning last week in Denver, where Pittsburgh virtually gave the game away with early turnovers. Cincy, meanwhile, can't seem to keep its OL or LBs healthy, and those are bad areas in which to be hurting vs. the visitors' zone blitz & RB W. Parker (600 YR), respectively. The lowly Jets had the hurtin' Bengals on the carpet last week until Cincy's unlikely 21-point, 4th-Q outburst. Steelers made of sterner stuff.
(06-Cincy 28-PITT 20...P.27-15 P.38/170 C.25/87 P.18/39/3/195 C.18/26/2/159 C.1 P.2)
(06-Pitt 23-CINCY 17 (OT)...P.29-15 P.45/207 C.16/44 P.19/28/1/275 C.20/38/0/251 P.1 C.0)
(06-Cincinnati +2 28-20, Pittsburgh +6 23-17 (OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 44-30)
Buffalo 23 - NY JETS 20--Bills' rookie QB Trent Edwards won his first NFL start vs. these Jets four weeks ago, 17-14 in Buffalo. This time it's his first road start. Still, can't trust revenge-minded, but troubled 1-6 N.Y. (1-5-1 vs. spread) to cover even a small spread these days. Bills' defense has fought through early-season injuries to play with considerable competence (18 ppg last 3), as backup DBs have proven to be better than advertised. Buffalo 9-3 last 12 getting points.
(07-BUF. 17-NY Jets 14...N.20-19 B.28/86 N.19/60 N.32/39/2/286 B.22/28/1/218 B.1 N.0)
(06-Jets 28-BUF. 20...B.26-15 B.31/169 N.24/74 B.22/39/1/306 N.19/29/0/182 N.0 B.2)
(06-Buf. 31-JETS 13...N.16-14 B.34/174 N.30/132 B.10/15/0/144 N.22/35/2/143 B.1 N.1)
(07-BUFFALO +3' 17-14; 06-NY Jets +5' 28-20, Buffalo +4 31-13...SR: Buffalo 52-42)
SAN DIEGO 26 - Houston 21--Chargers feeling much better about their 1-3 start after they won two straight heading into their bye week, with HC Norv Turner trying to ease the tension by giving his players a day at practice wearing their old college jerseys. And recently-acquired Dolphin WR Chris Chambers familiar with the offense, which was taken to Miami by new HC Cam Cameron, S.D.'s former offensive coordinator. But Chargers are without stalwart C Nick Hardwick (foot) several weeks, and probably Pro Bowl NT Jamal Williams (knee) as well. And Texans' short-lived comeback last week from 32-7 deficit shows Houston a willing, tough-to-conquer foe.
(04-San Diego +5 27-20...SR: San Diego 2-0)
Jacksonville 20 - TAMPA BAY 10--Tampa Bay doing what it can to bolster injury-depleted RB corps (vets Michael Bennett & Zack Crockett added last week). But even at full strength, not sure Bucs able to budge DTs Stroud & Henderson and Jag "D" that's been virtually impenetrable vs. run since the opener. Jeff Garcia not throwing any picks, but he's not exactly lighting up the scoreboard (Bucs only 14 ppg last 3). And Jacksonville's David Garrard (no picks first 5) not making many mistakes, either. His supporting cast (especially hot RB Jones-Drew) more likely to score deciding points.
(2007 Preseason: Jacksonville -4' beat Tampa Bay 31-19 at Jacksonville)
(03-JACKSONVILLE +3' 17-10...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)
New Orleans 20 - SAN FRANCISCO 13--Not sure wins over mistake-prone Seattle & flawed Atlanta constitute a buy signal for N. O., which isn't the same on attack minus Deuce McAllister's between-the-tackles toughness. And we'd usually rather watch C-SPAN than lay points with unreliable Saints (0-4 as chalk TY, 2-11 last 13 in role). But N.O. now has new hope in NFC South after consecutive wins, while punchless S.F. (less than 200 yards 4 of first 6; 10 ppg last 4) sure not scoring its way out of 4-game slump. Doubt possible return of QB Alex Smith a remedy, especially with WRs still not getting much separation from DBs, and OL continuing to labor.
(06-N. ORL. 34-S. Fran. 10...N.23-10 N.41/190 S.15/57 N.17/28/0/185 S.14/28/3/145 N.0 S.0)
(06-NEW ORLEANS -7 34-10...SR: San Francisco 45-21-2)
NEW ENGLAND 34 - Washington 10--While Patriots were raising their scoring average to 40 ppg with 49 last week in Miami, Redskins were starting three backups in their OL and generating only 160 total yards in their narrow 21-19 over sore-elbowed Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. Worse yet for Washington, Bill Belichick was angry with his team's 28-point allowance to the Dolphins. Redskin defense ranks high vs. the pass, but CBs Carlos Rogers (sprained knee) & Fred Smoot (hamstring) might not be 100%. N.E. 7-0 vs. number; 6-1 "over" in 2007. Skins only one "over" TY!
(03-WASHINGTON -3 20-17...SR: Washington 6-1)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 29
*OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 30 - Green Bay 23--Even though Denver was the beneficiary of some handy early turnovers last week vs. Pittsburgh, it was obvious Jay Cutler had benefited from some extra "class work" during the Broncos' bye week, as he completed 22 of 27 with 3 TDP vs. the Steelers often tough-to-read defense. And credit WRs Marshall & Stokley and TE Scheffler for being reliable targets. Kudos to G.B. for its surprising 5-1 start. But is it not true Packers would be 3-3 if Philly could field punts and Santana Moss could hold onto the ball? Poor ground game hurts G.B. in this one, with Denver going "over" for eleventh time in last 12 games! CABLE TV--ESPN
(03-GREEN BAY -9 31-3...SR: Denver 6-4-1)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Green Bay and Denver on Monday Night
Green Bay is 14-18 straight-up and 17-14-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
10-7-1 straight-up and 9-9 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Denver is 18-9-1 straight-up and 11-16-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
5-19 straight-up and 8-15-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-07)
Favorites vs. Pointspread
Favored by 1-6½ points Won 85, Lost 89, Tied 4
Favored by 7 points or more Won 33, Lost 26, Tied 2
Total Favorites Won 118, Lost 115, Tied 6
Home Teams vs. Pointspreads
Home Team Favorite Won 84, Lost 85, Tied 6
Home Team Underdog Won 30, Lost 33
Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0
Total Home Team Won 115, Lost 118, Tied 6
2007 MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS
Cincinnati -2½ beat Baltimore 27-20 at Cincinnati o40
San Francisco -3 beat Arizona 20-17 at San Francisco u45
Washington +6½ beat Philadelphia 20-12 at Philadelphia u39
Tennessee +4½ beat New Orleans 31-14 at New Orleans n45
New England -7½ beat Cincinnati 34-13 at Cincinnati u53½
Dallas -10 beat Buffalo 25-24 at Buffalo o45
NY Giants -4 beat Atlanta 31-10 at Atlanta u43½
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 1999 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2003 Reg. Seas.: Green Bay -9 beat Denver 31-3 at Green Bay
1999 Reg. Seas.: Denver +3½ beat Green Bay 31-10 at Denver
NFL KEY RELEASES
CHICAGO by 15 over Detroit
TENNESSEE by 18 over Oakland
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the Green Bay-Denver game
NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona 9 2 3-4 4-2-1 4-3 21-22 2-1 18-20 2-1 23-25
Atlanta 10 1 1-6 4-3 2-5 14-22 1-2 19-25 3-1 10-20
Baltimore 6 2 4-3 1-6 2-3 18-17 1-2 23-13 0-4 14-20
Buffalo 10 3 2-4 4-2 2-4 14-22 4-0 19-17 0-2 5-32
Carolina 6 2 4-2 4-2 2-4 21-18 0-2 14-27 4-0 24-14
Chicago 7 3 3-4 2-5 4-3 20-24 0-3 20-26 2-2 19-22
Cincinnati 7 3 2-4 3-3 4-2 27-31 2-1 26-28 1-2 29-34
Cleveland 9 3 3-3 4-2 5-0 28-31 3-1 32-31 1-1 21-30
Dallas 1 3 6-1 5-2 5-2 32-23 3-1 33-26 2-1 32-18
Denver 7 1 3-3 1-5 5-1 18-27 1-3 18-28 0-2 18-26
Detroit 10 4 4-2 3-2-1 3-3 23-29 2-0 27-20 1-2 20-37
Green Bay 6 3 5-1 4-1-1 4-2 24-18 2-1 21-20 2-0 29-15
Houston 10 2 3-4 3-4 5-2 24-25 2-2 26-23 1-2 22-28
Indianapolis -2 4 5-0 3-2 3-2 33-18 3-0 37-15 0-2 26-22
Jacksonville 4 3 4-1 3-2 2-3 20-12 1-2 20-12 2-0 20-11
Kansas City 9 4 4-3 4-2-1 2-5 15-16 1-1 16-16 3-1 14-17
Miami- 14 2 0-7 1-4-2 5-2 22-33 0-3 22-40 1-1 23-28
Minnesota 10 2 2-4 2-2-2 2-4 19-19 1-1 20-13 1-1 19-22
New England -7 5 7-0 7-0 6-1 40-17 3-0 37-13 4-0 42-21
New Orleans 7 2 2-4 1-5 2-3 17-25 0-3 16-21 1-2 17-30
NY Giants+ 4 3 5-2 5-2 4-2 27-21 3-1 24-19 2-1 30-24
NY Jets 12 2 1-6 1-5-1 4-2 19-27 0-2 18-27 1-3 21-28
Oakland 12 3 2-4 2-4 4-2 21-23 0-3 19-24 2-1 23-23
Philadelphia 6 3 2-4 2-4 1-5 19-17 1-2 28-20 1-2 11-14
Pittsburgh 4 4 4-2 4-2 3-3 27-13 3-0 28-6 1-2 25-20
St. Louis 16 3 0-7 1-6 1-6 11-27 1-2 20-26 0-4 5-29
San Diego 4 3 3-3 3-3 4-2 23-20 2-1 19-16 1-2 26-24
San Francisco 12 2 2-4 2-3-1 2-4 13-23 1-1 10-16 1-2 16-29
Seattle 8 4 4-3 3-4 2-5 20-15 2-2 24-15 1-2 14-16
Tampa Bay 8 4 4-3 3-3-1 2-5 18-16 2-0 23-9 1-3 14-21
Tennessee 5 2 4-2 4-1-1 1-4 22-18 1-1 20-18 3-0 23-18
Washington 8 3 4-2 2-2-2 1-4 20-15 1-2 22-15 1-0 17-15
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “Oâ€â€”Offense. “Dâ€â€”Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions. ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years. TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 25
*Boston College 21 - VIRGINIA TECH 19--Revenge-minded Virginia Tech is nothing if not resourceful, winning 6 of its first 7 despite a very containable offense that ranks No. 112 in nation. BC attack much more potent, as stellar sr. QB Ryan rates HUGE edge over Hokie counterparts T. Taylor, a still-learning true frosh, and jr. Glennon, who's struggled against quality defenses. Veteran Eagle stop unit is one, as BC has permitted just 46 ypg rushing while picking off 18 passes (both tops in nation). CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-BOS. COL. 22-Va. Tech 3...B.16-14 B.34/90 V.28/33 B.16/29/0/174 B.23/34/2/148 B.0 V.2)
(06-BOSTON COL. +2' 22-3 05-VA. TECH -13' 30-10...SR: Virginia Tech 9-4)
*Air Force 24 - NEW MEXICO 23--UNM a pretty formful bunch under Rocky Long, including routinely underachieving as Albuquerque chalk (just 2-7 last 9 in role). And AFA has had Lobos' number lately, winning last 3 meetings. Falcs have chance to extend series mastery, especially with vet "D" executing d.c. DeRuyter's blitz packages, and "O" keeping enough of Fisher DeBerry's old option in playbook to spring hybrid RB/WR Hall (423 YR last 2!).
(06-A. FORCE 24-N. Mex. 7...A.18-13 A.62/262 N.31/41 N.16/30/1/232 A.3/6/1/19 A.0 N.2)
(06-AFA -13' 24-7 05-Afa +12' 42-24 04-AFA -3 28-23...SR: Air Force 14-9)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 26
*FRESNO STATE 31 - Boise State 30--Like Vinny Testaverde, the "old" Fresno apparently is back, and Pat Hill's macho bunch in position to reprise old WAC turf war vs. Boise. Like Bulldogs' chances now that frosh RB Matthews (another 144 YR vs. San Jose) continues to provide proper infantry diversion for QB Brandstater, allowing hosts to do some business vs. suddenly-leaky Bronco "D." CABLE TV--ESPN2
(06-BOISE ST. 45-Fsu 21...B.23-11 B.47/300 F.26/102 B.19/25/1/180 F.12/24/1/121 B.0 F.0)
(06-BSU -22' 45-21 05-FSU -9 27-7 04-BSU -9 33-16...SR: Boise State 5-4)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 27
South Florida 27 - CONNECTICUT 16--Can't sell home-lovin' Huskies short, as they've covered 11 of last 15 at "Rentsch" (including 6 of 7 as dog). Still, South Florida possesses more speed than UConn on both sides of ball. And Bulls not only have top offensive threat on field in never-say-die soph QB Grothe, but also most dynamic defender in sackmeister soph DE Selvie (nation-leading 21½ tackles for loss!).
(06-S. FLA. 38-Conn. 16...C.19-18 S.41/205 C.26/60 C.20/40/1/201 S.13/16/0/153 S.0 C.0)
(06-USF -6' 38-16 05-CONN. +7 15-10...SR: South Florida 3-1)
WISCONSIN 27 - Indiana 24--Wisconsin's dismantling of injury-riddled N. Illinois was much-needed confidence-builder. But Hoosier QB Kellen Lewis had his best passing day of the season against stout Penn State "D" and WR James Hardy has already surpassed his yardage & TD numbers from last season. If Lewis can avoid turnovers, Indiana has a shot to snap Badgers' 12-game Camp Randall win streak.
(06-Wis. 52-IND. 17...W.26-21 W.46/209 I.33/167 W.18/23/1/330 I.13/30/0/113 W.1 I.2)
(06-Wisconsin -10' 52-17 05-WISCONSIN -17' 41-24...SR: Wisconsin 33-18-2)
PURDUE 38 - Northwestern 34--Purdue defense shut down Iowa's depleted attack last week, but dynamic Northwestern QB Bacher figures to give Boilermakers all they can handle. Wildcats 6-2 last 8 as a road dog, while Purdue just 3-8 last 11 laying points at home. Respect Boiler QB Painter, but red-hot Bacher (1351 YP, 10 TDP, only 1 int. last 3 games) can more than hold his own.
(06-Purd. 31-N'WSTRN 10...P.28-12 N.42/168 P.28/62 P.36/52/1/448 N.9/15/1/83 P.0 N.0)
(06-Purdue -7 31-10 05-Nwu +7' 34-29 04-NWU +10 13-10...SR: Purdue 48-25-1)
WAKE FOREST 27 - North Carolina 26--Carolina RS frosh QB Yates can't afford many mistakes against opportunistic Wake stop unit, which has returned 6 of its 21 takeaways for TDs. But if he's careful, young Tar Heels have enough weapons & defense to hang with Deacons, who have covered just 1 of last 13 laying 4 or more points.
(06-W. For. 24-N. CAR. 17...N.18-15 W.40/200 N.40/134 N.19/30/2/236 W.7/8/0/89 W.0 N.1)
(06-Wfu -8 24-17 04-Unc +5' 31-24...SR: North Carolina 67-33-2)
LOUISVILLE 36 - Pittsburgh 17--New Louisville HC Kragthorpe thus far unable to continue predecessor Petrino's money-making ways at Papa John's, where Cards are 0-3 vs. spread TY after covering 16 of previous 18 as host. Still, can't ignore huge experience edge L'ville's NFL-caliber sr. QB Brohm (9744 YP & 65 TDP in college career) has over touted Pitt true frosh Bostick (769 YP & 4 TDP).
(06-Lvl. 48-PITT 24...P.22-20 L.31/162 P.24/70 L.21/29/0/337 P.32/51/3/328 L.1 P.1)
(06-Louisville -10' 48-24 05-LOUISVILLE -20' 42-20...SR: Louisville 6-4)
ILLINOIS 34 - Ball State 26--Illinois offense hit some bumps against Iowa & Michigan, as QB Juice Williams' passing deficiencies have been exploited. Ball State has covered 11 of last 12 on road, and Card QB Nate Davis has collected 20 TDs vs. just 3 ints. this season, throwing for 780 total yards in his last 2 road games (at W. Mich. & Nebraska). (FIRST MEETING)
FLORIDA STATE 31 - Duke 17--Sure, seething Seminoles would love to clout someone after losing 2 straight conference games. But is FSU (just 3-13 last 16 as home chalk!) capable of running up score on improving Duke (8-2 last 10 as road dog)? Devils' soph QB T. Lewis has 16 TDP TY; 'Nole counterparts Lee & Weatherford have combined for only 9.
(06-Fla. St. 51-DUKE 24...F.21-19 F.21/157 D.40/52 F.23/40/3/321 D.19/41/0/255 F.1 D.2)
(06-Fsu -23 51-24 05-Fsu -29' 55-24 04-FSU -30' 29-7...SR: Florida State 15-0)
MICHIGAN 45 - Minnesota 14--Can't see backing defenseless Gophers facing chemistry-rich Michigan side riding 6-game win streak. Granted, Wolverines have disappointed laying double digits (1-4 last 5), but even if QB Henne (shoulder/wrist injuries; check status) and RB Mike Hart (rested injured ankle last week) aren't ready to go, doubt Gophers can contain deeper host.
(06-Mich. 28-MIN. 14...Mc.23-18 Mc.45/234 Mn.24/108 Mc.17/24/0/284 Mn.17/34/0/215 Mc.0 Mn.0)
(06-Mich. -9' 28-14 05-Minn. +7' 23-20 04-MICH. -3' 27-24...SR: Michigan 68-24-3)
AUBURN 38 - Mississippi 13--Although Auburn off devastating last-second loss at LSU, look for superior Tigers to vent frustration vs. defensively-soft Ole Miss (ranked 97th) depressed following 44-8 home blowout vs. Arkansas. Containable Rebel offense switched back to erratic QB Schaeffer after starter Adams threw 4 ints. vs Hogs. Auburn's punishing ground assault overpowers Ole Miss' yielding front 7 (207 ypg, 4. 7 ypc).
(06-Aub. 23-MISS. 17...A.25-15 A.41/175 M.28/86 A.21/34/1/253 M.9/17/2/170 A.1 M.0)
(06-Auburn -18' 23-17 05-AUBURN -20' 27-3 04-Auburn -16' 35-14...SR: Auburn 23-8)
MISSOURI 46 - Iowa State 10--With Mizzou trailing Kansas in Big XII North, don't look for any let-up by fiery QB Daniel and home-lovin' Tigers (9-1-1 vs. spread last 11 at Columbia). Iowa State--116th in scoring at only 15 ppg in these days of spread-the-field pyrotechnics--unlikely to keep pace with MU's spread-option, which ran for 212 yds. in last week's 41-10 rout of Texas Tech despite the absence of starting RB Tony Temple.
(06-IOWA ST. 21-Mo. 16...I.23-22 I.48/196 M.24/90 M.29/44/0/310 I.15/27/1/153 I.0 M.1)
(06-ISU +13' 21-16 05-MO. -6 27-24 (OT) 04-Mo. +4' 17-14 (OT)...SR: Missouri 57-33-9)
VANDERBILT 31 - Miami-Ohio 13--Vandy's confidence soaring following historic upset at South Carolina ('Dores hadn't beaten team as highly-ranked since 1937!). So, don't mind bucking offensively-limited Miami-Ohio (thin at RB due to injuries, lacks true go-to WR) lacking firepower to hang with Vandy, whose offense now sparked with insertion of athletic 6-2 soph QB M. Adams. Look for 'Dores all-star WR Bennett (46 catches) to go wild after season-low 2 grabs week ago. (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)
BUFFALO 23 - Akron 20--Buffalo has never beaten Akron, but this is the best Bull team the Zips have faced. Buffalo QB Drew Willy is coming off a 286-yard passing game at Syracuse and hasn't thrown an int. in last 3 games. RB Starks has 12 TDs this year & gained 5.3 ypc in last 3 games. Akron attack ranks 114th. as soph QB Jaquemain still learning.
(06-AKRON 31-Buf. 16...A.16-13 A.37/144 B.36/98 A.14/21/0/274 B.15/24/1/150 A.1 B.1)
(06-AKRON -17 31-16 05-Akron -10 13-7 04-AKRON -9 44-21...SR: Akron 8-0)
Central Michigan 34 - KENT STATE 19--CMU QB Dan LeFevour has completed 72% for 815 yds. & 9 TDs in last 3 games, and expect Chippewa defense, which yielded 70 pts. vs. Clemson, to bounce back strong now that it's back in the MAC. Kent State suffered a huge blow when QB Edelman broke his arm late in the Bowling Green game. Edelman's clever decision-making was responsible for much of the success Flash RB Jarvis has enjoyed. Coaches are considering starting true frosh G. Morgan at QB, as backup Magazu was on crutches (ankle) vs. BG. Also note Kent's -10 TO count, 3 true frosh starters on "D" and Chips 9-2 SU mark last 11 as a MAC visitor. (04-C. MICH. +1' 24-21...SR: CMU 21-9)
KANSAS STATE 44 - Baylor 9--Payback time for potent K-State (38 ppg in Big XII play) vs. conference "have-not" Baylor, whose backup QBs Machen & Weed tossed four ints. vs. Texas last week after starter Szymanski & RS frosh Beatty threw four the previous week at Kansas! Wildcat QB Freeman (404 YP last week at Ok. State) coming off his best game, fierce HC Prince has his team well-unified, and KSU has 11 def. & STs TDs in his 1+Ys.
(06-BAY. 17-Kan. St. 3...B.13-12 K.21/45 B.19/18 K.22/55/3/296 B.26/47/1/294 B.3 K.2)
(06-BAYLOR +1' 17-3...SR: Kansas State 5-1)
Kansas 27 - TEXAS A&M 21--Should be furious battle between Big XII North leader KU and South co-leader A&M, with quick Jayhawk QB Reesing (17 TDP, 4 ints.; from nearby Austin) facing Aggie option ace McGee (711 YR). Magical KU now 7-0 SU (6-0 vs. spread) for best start since 1968, while A&M 10-3 its last 13 at home, with the losses by 4, 1 & 1 points! Jayhawks' two road wins TY by 7 (at K-State) & 5 (at Colorado).
(06-Tex. A&M 21-KANSAS 18...T.20-10 T.31/146 K.27/113 T.25/45/0/240 K.14/32/0/175 T.1 K.1)
(06-Texas A&M -1' 21-18...SR: Texas A&M 7-1)
TEXAS TECH 41 - Colorado 17--Bad time for youthful CU to be catching TT. Red Raiders steaming about last week's 41-10 loss at Missouri, not to mention LY's defeat in Boulder. Despite its periodic defensive shortcomings, TT 21-7-1 vs. spread when on the line immediately after a straight-up loss under HC Mike Leach. CU QB Hawkins has 15 TDs vs. 12 ints., while Red Raiders' Harrell is 32 & 7, and will be focused after suffering 4 picks last week.
(06-COLO. 30-Tex. Tech 6...C.20-14 C.46/228 T.15/31 T.29/45/3/245 C.12/19/0/152 C.2 T.2)
(06-COLORADO +7 30-6...SR: EVEN 4-4)
WYOMING 27 - Unlv 10--A bit reluctant to lay points with Wyo bunch that's suddenly its own worst enemy (5 TOs last week at Air Force) and might have an unwanted QB controversy brewing after mistake-prone starter Sween was pulled in favor of backup Hetrick vs. Falcs. But fading UNLV (lost last 4) up to its old tricks, and allowing nearly 500 yards vs. sluggish CSU a sign that Reb "D" starting to buckle after encouraging early work.
(06-Wyo. 34-UNLV 26...W.19-12 W.39/89 U.23/59 W.19/27/2/197 U.19/37/1/162 W.0 U.2)
(06-Wyo. -9' 34-26 05-WYO. -18 42-17 04-Wyo. +3' 53-45 (OT)...SR: UNLV 8-7)
TULSA 51 - Smu 32--Can't trust either defense, as each giving up nearly 40 points & 500 ypg. Tulsa has failed to cover its last 5, but SMU 1-6 SU & vs. spread, as scouts say HC Bennett on tenterhooks in Dallas. Golden Hurricane sr. QB Paul Smith (21 TDP) has more reliable supporting cast than Mustangs' soph triggerman Willis.
(06-SMU 34-Tulsa 24...S.21-20 S.34/179 T.36/126 T.22/30/0/230 S.11/19/0/190 S.0 T.1)
(06-SMU +6 34-24 05-TULSA -14' 20-13 04-SMU +11' 41-35 (OT)...SR: SMU 10-4)
TULANE 31 - Memphis 27--Don't want to overreact to Tulane's OT win at troubled SMU. However, no surprise if clever Green Wave HC Toledo able to pound away at soft Memphis rush "D" with record-setting sr. RB Forte (1129 YR, 12 TDs last 5!), keeping Tigers' potent aerial attack idling on sidelines for extended periods. (04-MEM -23' 49-24...SR: Mem 14-11-1)
OREGON 31 - Southern Cal 24--Concede defensive edge to SC stop unit that, if Mel Kiper Jr. is to be believed (and we trust Mel), might have as many as four NFL first-round picks for next April's draft in its ranks. But remain unconvinced Trojans' uprising at Notre Dame an indication that all is well again with offense. Much prefer o.c. Chip Kelly's more-creative Oregon attack that will provide SC "D" by far its biggest challenge to date. Many Trojan sources worried that Duck QB Dixon capable of burning Pete Carroll's often overaggressive defenders, reminiscent of Vince Young's old Rose Bowl magic.
(06-S. CAL 35-Oregon 10...O.25-21 S.28/167 O.40/102 O.30/48/1/256 S.16/27/3/176 S.0 O.1)
(06-USC -8 35-10 05-Usc -21 45-13...SR: Southern Cal 36-15-2)
Louisiana Tech 24 - UTAH STATE 17--USU more competitive than a year ago, and covering some pointspreads (4-2 last 6), but not sure we have the nerve to pick spot where Utags actually break their 13-game losing streak. La Tech upgraded as well under new HC Dooley, and doubt scatter-armed USU QB L. Jackson can exploit improved Bulldog "D" as did Boise QB Tharp last week.
(06-LA. TECH 48-Utah St. 35...L.21-18 L.47/344 U.36/124 U.12/28/2/249 L.13/18/0/226 L.1 U.0)
(06-LTU -6 48-35 05-Ltu -7 27-17...SR: EVEN 2-2)
Arizona 28 - WASHINGTON 21--Washington fading as quickly as Joe Biden's presidential hopes, dropping 5 straight (1-4 vs. points). As long as HC Mike Stoops doesn't explode (literally), cast a vote for UA, which owns a vet "D" capable of stopping this level of opponent. Can't say as much for sloppy-tackling U-Dub stop unit that's allowed 44 or more in 3 of last 4. Frosh RB Grigsby had 126 YR in featured role vs. Stanford & gives Wildcat offense a potent weapon facing Huskies. Note definitive underdog trend (covered last 9!) in series.
(06-Wash. 21-ARIZ. 10...A.17-16 W.40/154 A.24/M7 A.24/41/1/308 W.14/26/1/293 W.0 A.0)
(06-Wash. +3' 21-10 05-Wash. +13 38-14 04-Ariz. +1' 23-13...SR: Washington 17-5-1)
EASTERN MICHIGAN 24 - Western Michigan 23--Prefer to take points with EMU side that got a decent performance from true frosh QB McMahon (282 YP; 44 YR; 2 rush TDs) filling in for Andy Schmitt (shoulder; check status) vs. N'western. WMU QB Hiller threw 3 ints. at home vs. Ball State, and ragged Bronco "D" has twice blown leads late in 4th Q in MAC play this year.
(06-W. MICH. 18-E. Mich. 15...E.18-17 W.35/178 E.32/65 E.22/39/2/220 W.18/32/0/150 W.2 E.0)
(06-WMU -15 18-15 05-Wmu -3' 44-36 04-Emu +3' 35-31...SR: W. Michigan 26-13-2)
EAST CAROLINA 32 - Uab 23--Supporting UAB a dicey proposition, as Blazers in midst of wide-scale youth movement under new HC Callaway. Big offensive edge to ECU, but Pirates have permitted 39 ppg in previous 5, and 7 of last 8 victories came by fewer than 14 points.
(06-UAB 17-E. Car. 12...U.22-20 U.42/124 E.27/96 E.20/38/1/280 U.17/23/0/199 U.3 E.2)
(06-UAB -6' 17-12 05-ECU +5 31-23...SR: UAB 4-2)
Florida 30 - Georgia 26--Although Florida's Tebow-led spread attack is groovin', young Gator defense still a work in progress. Therefore, points worth considering with rested rival UGA, which has the offensive weapons to trade all the way. Dawgs versatile, maturing 6-3 soph QB Stafford (only 13 of 33 with 2 ints. in LY's game) primed to atone for that lackluster effort, and dazzling backfield mate RB Moreno (619 YR, 5.2 ypc) will provide Stafford lots of 3rd-and-short situations. Last 5 in rivalry decided by total of just 28 pts. (widest margin 7), and UGA 6-2 last 8 as dog. (at Jacksonville, FL) TV--CBS
(06-Fla. 21-Ga. 14...F.15-14 F.35/156 G.26/64 F.14/28/1/163 G.13/33/2/151 F.1 G.3)
(06-Fla. -13' 21-14 05-Fla. -4 14-10 04-Ga. -7 31-24 all at Jack...SR: Georgia 45-37-2)
Michigan State 23 - IOWA 17--Potent MSU attack was held without an offensive TD against Ohio State. But Spartans have covered 4 of last 5, and QB Hoyer (11 TD passes, only 4 ints.) and RB Javon Ringer (726 YR last 4 games) eager to get 5-3 MSU bowl-eligible before schedule gets tougher. Depleted Iowa offense has scored more than 20 points just once this season and only 23 in last 3 combined. (04-IOWA -7 38-16...SR: Iowa 19-17-2)
MARYLAND 26 - Clemson 19--Maryland defense owns enough athleticism in defensive front 7 to control Clemson running game without "selling out" and exposing itself to Tiger QB Harper's passing. Terp sr. RBs Ball (5.5 ypc, 6 TDs last 3 games) & Lattimore (90 ypg rushing) a potent offensive pair. Clemson a bit of a bully, scoring 52 ppg (and getting 13 of Harper's 19 TDP) vs. non-conference foes La.-Monroe, Furman & C. Michigan. Maryland "D" will bring Tiger attack back to ACC-level reality.
(06-Mary. 13-CLEM. 12...M.18-16 C.41/143 M.28/54 C.18/27/0/251 M.23/35/1/247 M.0 C.0)
(06-Mary. +18' 13-12 05-Clem. +2 28-24 04-CLEM. -3' 10-7...SR: Clemson 29-24-1)
Virginia 20 - N. CAROLINA ST. 19--In a college football season full of surprises, 7-1 Virginia's resurgence has gone largely unnoticed. Conservative Cavs doing it with rushing & defense, however, so points might work with N.C. State now that jr. QB Evans (335 YP & 3 TDP last week) has regained some confidence. Five of UVa's last 6 wins have been by total of 11 points!
(06-VA. 14-N. Car. St. 7...V.16-12 V.37/125 N.29/70 N.21/35/1/220 V.12/22/0/131 V.0 N.0)
(06-VIRGINIA -1' 14-7...SR: North Carolina St. 32-21-1)
TEXAS 46 - Nebraska 16--Virtually forced to lay the lumber with Longhorns, as Huskers have now failed to cover last 7 games TY! NU's totally-rebuilt front four generating little pass-rush pressure and has also been battered by the run (more than 300 YR each of last two games, both at Lincoln). Bill Callahan's future in serious doubt with Cornhusker icon Tom Osborne taking over as AD. UT's first home game in a month. TV-ABC
(06-Texas 22-NEB. 20...T.21-15 T.34/128 N.24/38 N.16/29/1/302 T.25/40/0/220 T.1 N.2)
(06-Texas -5' 22-20...SR: Texas 8-3)
NEVADA 48 - Idaho 22--Who would have guessed that Nevada would be storing QBs like the U.S. military does its nuclear weapons, as Chris Ault's Pistol has posted video game-like numbers (1831 yards & 139 points last 3!) since Vince Young-like RS frosh QB Kaepernick replaced injured starter Graziano. That's bad news for fading Idaho bunch (no covers last 5) that has been taken to woodshed (outscored 107-21 last 2!) by Wolf Pack lately.
(06-Nevada 45-IDAHO 7...N.27-11 N.49/222 I.24/93 N.17/27/1/195 I.12/21/1/116 N.0 I.3)
(06-Nevada -10 45-7 05-NEVADA -8' 62-14...SR: Nevada 15-9)
MARSHALL 42 - Rice 41--There are very few good (serviceable?) defenses in C-USA, and these are two of the league's worst. Rice has allowed a staggering 1319 yards in just last 2 games! But yielding Marshall unable to keep Owl QB Clement (9 TDP last 3 games) from trading points. (FIRST MEETING)
Utah 24 - COLORADO STATE 23--Not to get carried away by a win at UNLV, but now that snakebit CSU has finally broken chains of 13-game losing streak, Rams capable of an upsurge, especially with chance to send beloved HC Lubick (almost certain to retire, if MWC rumor mill to be believed) out on high note. Utah on nice roll, but CSU stays close if RB G. Johnson (305 YR last 2) continues to provide support for QB Hanie.
(06-UTAH 35-Colo. 22...U.26-18 U.42/205 C.34/148 U.21/34/1/321 C.15/33/2/235 U.0 C.0)
(06-UTAH -12 35-22 05-CSU -4' 21-17 04-UTAH -26 63-31...SR: Utah 29-17-2)
BOWLING GREEN 42 - Ohio 28--Since fading Ohio having trouble stopping the wind (37 ppg allowed last 5), expect BG to continue its series domination (8 straight covers vs. Bobcats) now that Falcons have fully unleashed blue-chip frosh RB Geter (Florida sprint champ had 203 YR, 4 catches for 53 vs. Kent St. ) to take pressure of capable QB Sheehan. Ohio QB Bower's decision-making remains shakier than ever (4 ints. vs. Golden Flashes).
(06-B. Green 21-OHIO 9...O.19-14 B.44/148 O.32/54 O.20/34/2/188 B.10/19/0/108 B.0 O.1)
(06-Bgu +6' 21-9 05-BGU -21 38-14 04-Bgu -14 41-16...SR: Bowling Green 35-21-2)
OREGON STATE 27 - Stanford 20--OSU's recent resurgence reminiscent of similar midseason rally LY and has coincided with QB Canfield and "O" reducing giveaways (only 3 TOs last 2 after 23 in first 5 games!) that sidetracked Beavers in September. But evidence indicates recent Stanford uprising (won 2 straight on road!) no false alarm, as new QB Pritchard proving an effective pilot for Jim Harbaugh's West Coast version.
(06-Ore. St. 30-STAN. 7...O.24-12 O.47/208 S.21/85 O.16/25/0/177 S.9/26/1/125 O.0 S.1)
(06-Osu -14' 30-7 05-Stan. +6 20-17 04-Osu -2' 24-19...SR: Stanford 47-23-3)
Ucla 27 - WASHINGTON STATE 26--Before counting out Wazzu, remember Cougs circled the wagons in last home game vs. Arizona State, and beleaguered HC Doba in no mood to start building for future by playing loads of underclassmen. And can't be too comfy laying points on road with UCLA, which has lost outright 13 times as chalk in Karl Dorrell's 4+Ys. Note that WSU QB Brink torched Bruin 2ndary with 405 YP in LY's Coug win at Rose Bowl.
(06-Wash. St. 37-UCLA 15...W.25-16 W.36/110 U.24/74 W.28/38/2/405 U.17/37/2/252 W.0 U.1)
(06-Wsu +2 37-15 05-Ucla -5 44-41 (OT) 04-Wsu +14 31-29...SR: UCLA 35-17-1)
*South Carolina 21 - TENNESSEE 20--While both off disappointing efforts, believe road-tested South Carolina (8-1 vs. spread last 9 away) more likely to regroup than UT squad that's dropped 10 straight as SEC chalk in Knoxville. Vols productive QB Ainge won't easily find rhythm vs. 'Cocks tight-covering 2ndary (ranked 1st nationally; 49%, 146 ypg). Meanwhile, Carolina's normally-effective QBs Smelley and/or Mitchell able to attack a green, reeling Vol 2ndary (58%, 13 TDs, just 5 ints.).
(06-Tenn. 31-S. CAR. 24...S.23-17 S.35/165 T.23/71 T.21/29/0/254 S.16/30/3/230 T.1 S.0)
(06-Tenn. -3' 31-24 05-Usc +13' 16-15 04-Tenn. +1 43-29...SR: Tennessee 20-3-2)
*TOLEDO 28 - Northern Illinois 27--Although injury-riddled 1-7 NI just playing for pride, still uncomfy laying points with defensively-porous Toledo squad (45 ppg) that's money-burnin' 2-10 last 12 as MAC chalk. Well-coached Huskies making habit of narrow losses in MAC, dropping 5 of their last 6 by combined 13 pts. Dog in series has covered 5 straight.
(06-Toledo 17-N. ILL. 13...N.17-16 T.49/238 N.22/23 N.20/47/1/244 T.8/21/1/49 T.0 N.1)
(06-Toledo +12 17-13 05-Niu +9' 35-17 04-Toledo +6' 31-17...SR: Toledo 27-7)
*KENTUCKY 34 - Mississippi State 24--Kentucky's "emotional well" running low following 3 straight draining SEC battles, so not surprised to see improved, defensively-tough MSU stay inside generous number. Bulldogs poised frosh QB Carroll (no ints. so far) avoiding the big mistakes, and tackle-breaking RB Dixon should find room vs. Wildcats permissive run defense (ranked 95th, 4.7 ypc).
(06-Ky. 34-MISS. ST. 31...K.22-16 K.38/106 M.24/24 M.22/41/2/384 K.19/29/1/284 K.1 M.1)
(06-Ky. -1 34-31 05-KY. -1 13-7 04-MSU -3' 22-7...SR: Kentucky 20-14)
*RUTGERS 34 - West Virginia 33--Technical case for both sides, as road-warrior Mountaineers 11-3 vs. spread last 14 as visitor and Scarlet Knights have covered 6 straight as dog. Rutgers defense (12 sacks last 2 games) has enough speed to avoid being overwhelmed by WV stars White & Slaton. And, with workhorse RB Rice (377 YR on 75 carries in last 2 games) pounding away, Knight QB Teel should be able to fire some shots down field off play-action.
(06-WVU 41-Rut. 39 (OT)...R.20-19 W.47/195 R.37/174 R.19/26/0/278 W.14/30/1/244 W.0 R.0)
(06-WVA -10' 41-39 (OT) 05-Wva -3' 27-14 04-Wva -15 35-30...SR: West Virginia 28-4-2)
*Ohio State 17 - PENN STATE 16--With QB Anthony Morelli coming off one of his best efforts, contributions of RB Rodney Kinlaw (349 YR, 4 TDs last 3), and a unit that's ranked 4th in the nation in scoring defense, Penn State has all the tools to give Ohio State its biggest challenge to date. Buckeye defense formidable, but Nittany Lions are 19-1 SU last 20 at home, including an upset against the Buckeyes in 2005. TV--ABC
(06-OSU 28-Penn St. 6...P.16-14 P.40/142 O.29/138 O.12/22/2/115 P.16/25/3/106 O.0 P.0)
(06-OSU -17 28-6 05-PSU +3' 17-10 04-OSU -6' 21-10...SR: EVEN 11-11)
*UTEP 45 - Houston 42--Key battle in race for C-USA title between early frontrunners in league's West Division. Balanced Houston offense plenty potent, and slight defensive edge to visiting Cougars. Still, hard to buck UTEP (4-1-1 vs. spread), as Miners have extra week of prep, plus dynamic duo on offense in RS frosh QB Vittatoe (13 TDP, only 3 ints.) & late-blooming sr. RB M. Thomas (13 TDs, 708 YR on 5.1 ypc).
(06-HOU. 34-Utep 17...H.24-13 H.42/204 U.23/30 H.20/30/1/208 U.19/30/1/206 H.0 U.0)
(06-HOUSTON -6' 34-17 05-UTEP -12 44-41 (OT)...SR: UTEP 3-1)
*Byu 33 - SAN DIEGO ST. 13--Acknowledge some encouraging signs lately at SDSU, as "D" finally displaying a little backbone. But erratic performance pattern has been a trademark of Chuck Long's Aztec teams, and psychological state could be more dicey than usual after last-second heartbreaker vs. New Mexico. Meanwhile, BYU's new weapon RB Unga (323 YR last 2) providing extra balance for potent Coug attack.
(06-BYU 47-Sds 17...B.23-21 B.32/152 S.38/141 B.16/21/0/267 S.20/32/1/216 B.1 S.1)
(06-BYU -28 47-17 05-SDS P 31-10 04-BYU -10' 49-16...SR: BYU 23-7-1)
*California 30 - ARIZONA STATE 27--What a difference a few weeks can make, as it's ASU that now has legit BCS hopes, while Cal has readjusted its postseason sights to Holiday and Sun Bowls. We'll see how Sun Devils cope with upper-tier competition without services of chop-busting RB Torain (out for season). No surprise if ASU QB Carpenter damages suspect Bear stop unit, although explosive Cal weaponry capable of trading points vs. any foe.
(06-CAL. 49-Ariz. St. 21...A.25-16 A.46/237 C.27/139 C.18/26/1/270 A.16/36/4/177 C.1 A.1)
(06-CALIFORNIA -8 49-21 04-CALIFORNIA -16 27-0...SR: EVEN 13-13)
*HAWAII 55 - New Mexico State 24--Hal Mumme's NMSU Air Raid finally off tarmac again when QB Holbrook returned with a flourish (404 YP) last Saturday vs. Idaho. But WAC sources suggest last week's Hawaii "bye" could do wonders for Colt Brennan's sore ankle, and leaky Aggie defense could be in for a long night vs. June Jones' Red Gun. Unbeaten BCS hopeful Warriors 9-4 last 13 laying DDs at home.
(06-Hawaii 49-NMS 30...N.28-26 H.33/155 N.30/118 H.23/34/0/353 N.32/46/1/330 H.1 N.2)
(06-Hawaii -19 49-30 05-HAWAII -20' 49-28...SR: Hawaii 3-0)
ADDED GAMES
ARKANSAS 52 - Florida Intl. 7--Now that Arkansas finally played a complete game on both sides of ball in 44-8 romp at Ole Miss, must lay lumber vs. outclassed FIU, riding 19-game losing streak. Hogs have already whipped two Sun Belt squads by combined 112-33 margin TY. (FIRST MEETING)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 24 - La.-Monroe 21--ULM's athletic, improved-passing jr. QB Lancaster (former WR completed 15 of 20 for 237 yds. vs. FIU) & super-steady RB Dawson (100+ YR in 11 of past 12 games) comprise one of Sun Belt's premier offensive tandems. So look for careful Warhawks (just 10 giveaways in 7 games) to battle opportunistic FAU (+18 TO margin), afforded fewer chances to feast on TOs here.
(06-Fl. Atl. 21-LA.-MON. 19...20-20 F.38/151 L.28/122 L.23/38/2/285 F.13/19/0/185 F.0 L.0)
(06-Fau +14 21-19 05-Ulm +7' 28-21 04-Ulm +14 17-13...SR: La.-Monroe 2-1)
*ARKANSAS STATE 26 - Troy 24--Arkansas State's bipolar performance pattern a bit perplexing (Indians followed school-record 681-yard fireworks show vs. ULL with paltry 138 yards and 9 sacks allowed vs. MTSU last week). But ASU has been Troy's nemesis lately, and Indians usually on warpath at Jonesboro (11-1 SU last 12 as host).
(06-Ark. St. 33-TROY 26...A.25-18 A.51/233 T.26/88 T.19/30/2/267 A.13/26/0/188 A.0 T.1)
(06-Asu +8 33-26 05-ASU -3' 9-3 04-ASU +13 13-9...SR: Arkansas State 6-2)
*Middle Tennessee St 28 - NORTH TEXAS 20--UNT 1-1 SU at home TY, with a 10-point loss to Florida Atlantic & a tipped-pass-delight 10-point victory over Monroe. The emerging MTSU defense had 9 sacks and 4 takeaways vs. Arkansas State last week, while the Eagles fell 45-7 at Troy despite 7 takeaways by North Texas (what?)!
(06-Mtsu 35-N. TEX. 0...M.24-8 M.57/212 N.24/40 M.13/18/0/154 N.7/16/2/63 M.0 N.1)
(06-Mts +4 35-0 05-Ntu +5' 14-7 04-NTU -3 30-21...SR: North Texas 5-1)
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28
*Ucf 28 - SOUTHERN MISS 27--On the surface, this shapes up as battle between star RBs. UCF has jr. Kevin Smith, who has run for 14 TDs & 155 ypg (2nd in nation) TY. USM counters with slippery soph Fletcher (more than 2000 YR in last 1+ seasons). What will likely determine outcome, however, is which QB makes fewer mistakes. Lean slightly to Knights' tough-minded sr. Israel. TV--ESPN
(06-S. Miss 19-UCF 14...U.16-14 U.39/134 S.29/89 U.18/31/1/191 S.15/31/0/184 S.0 U.1)
(06-Usm -6 19-14 05-USM -8' 52-31...SR: Southern Miss 2-0)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 15 over Kent State
TEXAS TECH by 24 over Colorado
ARIZONA by 7 over Washington
MARYLAND by 7 over Clemson
