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Hey Guys,
A very disappointing MNF game that should have easily gone OVER the total. Shit happens and we must move on.
Rockman's GOM >>>> South Florida @ Rutgers
I'll try to keep to short. Not too many teams have rushed for over 100 yds on this Bulls team lately. But, one team had over 200 yds!! That's right...RUTGERS. Ray Rice ran for 202 yds last year in Florida. So, you ask why couldn't WV run against this BULLS team. Simple, WV ran to the outside playing right into the strength of the BULLS defense...SPEED. Whereas, RUTGERS will pound the ball right up the middle all night long neutralizing that speed by running between the tackles.
Rutgers should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage due to their significant size advantage up front.
Rutgers’ OL
RT - Jeremy Zuttah - 6'4 - 295 lbs
RG - Anthony Davis - 6'6 – 350 lbs
C - Ryan Blaszczyk - 6'4 – 290 lbs
LG - Mike Fladell - 6'8 – 325 lbs
LT - Pedro Sosa - 6'5 – 290 lbs
South Florida’s DL
DE – George Selvie – 6’4 - 242 lbs
DE – Jarriett Buie – 6’4 – 249 lbs
NT – Richard Clebert – 6’1 – 312 lbs
DT – Aaron Harris – 6’4 – 264 lbs
It worked excellent last year and I expect the same tonight. Also, WV is a one-dimensional team whereas RUTGERS can run & pass and will exploit this BULLS defense. I should note that RUTGERS has improved their pass offense by 157 ypg. That's amazing!!
I'm sure many of you have read the trends, numbers, etc on this marque matchup. And, you know I love numbers and I'm always trying to exploit any weakness within those trends & numbers.
But, tonight is a totally different animal imo. First of all, Rutgers has a HUGE home field advantage in this matchup. And for the first time, this BULLS team will be hunted and not the hunter in this matchup. The pressure is all on this BULLS team as the #2 ranked team. Talk about pressure on this young & emerging team. And, for the record, Home Dogs on Thursday night & particularly Big East HDs have been GOLD!!
Remember last year when LOUV can into NJ undefeated (8-0) as a 6 pt fav and lost outright to this hungry Rutgers team. I know this Rutgers team will be ready to play tonight.
This game is all about the SITUATION both teams are in tonight. And, I honestly believe that RUTGERS is in a perfect situation to pull the upset at home!!
Play RUTGERS ml +115
Good Luck,
Rockman
posted by rockman
Oct. 17 2007 11:33pm -
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Ok when I saw this game this week my first thought was S. FLORIDA HUGE but after looking at both these 2 teams RUTGERS should be favored in this game but by less than a feild goal! S. Florida is sitting pretty right now undefeated.
Power Rating of teams played favors S FLORIDA 31.2, to RUTGERS 28.8
South Florida is ranked 2nd in the inaugural BCS Standings for 2007. The Bulls are 6-0 and on an 8-game winning streak, tied for the longest in the nation with Boston College and Hawaii. And yet, this is only South Florida's second Big East game of the season. In their only conference game to-date, USF beat West Virginia at home. This will be the school's biggest road trip of the year, but the Bulls already proved they can win a big game on the road when they grabbed an overtime victory at Auburn. The Scarlet Knights are off to a disappointing 4-2 start, 1-1 in the Big East, and must win this week to have a realistic shot at the conference title.
What I'm going to do tonight is 6.5 pt tease on Rutgers & the Over with TCU........... Should equal money.
I really think RUTGERS might win this one!!!
GOOD LUCK to ALL!!!!!!!!
posted by scrilla719
Oct. 17 2007 11:48pm -
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Move over footballers...We have another night of BOSTON RED SOX BASEBALL!!!
So, here it is...Beckett throws a strong 7 innings, Sox get the win and back to Beantown we go....Saturday's Game 6 has Schilling pitching a solid 6-7 innings and Sox force a Game 7. Sunday Night Baseball, Game 7, do or die and Dice K pitches an 8 inning gem before turning the ball over to Papelbon for the save and Sox head to the Series!!!
Look at it this way....MLB needs this to be a series. Too many sweeps in these series. Plenty of $$$ to be made on Saturday Night and Sunday Night baseball on TV....
BoSOX (JOSH BECKETT)---------------- -110 3 UNITS (330-300)
*****DISCLAIMER******
Messy is officially on "tilt" and is chasing his hometown team! Although he believes it can (and will) be done you are hearby forewarned!!!
GOOD LUCK BOYS!!!!
SEE YA SATURDAY IN DA BEAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
posted by thebigmessy
Oct. 18 2007 12:41am -
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Rocko--- great day in pucks for you. I wish I would have tailed as you went 2-0-1 (or, however you do ties)
I actually tailed one of my boys, who does well in pucks, and I went 2-1. If I would have seen your post, I would have went 4-1-1...LOL.
The bad news----> I'm on S Flo for 2 U. It is a sucker play with the pub heavy on the media darlings, but this might be another time where the pub wins before getting crushed this wk end.
the thing about their running (Rut) is that SF has 2 stud CB's so the S can cheat over. But, you have some great logic with the OL v. DL size difference.
arent 2 of the OL for Rutgers really green?
Either way, one of us wins and I'm good with that (as long as it is a 2 U play).
posted by thenooch
Oct. 18 2007 2:04am -
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Rutgers +3 over South Florida
also
ALCS GAME 5 LOCK
Cleveland Indians w/Sabathia
Here' what I don't get. You play Elon, a team where I couldn't name one player at gunpoint. Then you play Auburn, when they absolutely sucked and Brandon Cox threw more INT's then completions, and you beat them by only 3.
Then you go and play North Carolina, who Butch Davis is clearly rebuilding, they stink. Then you go play West Virginia and their quarterback leaves the game in the second quarter, and your last two games have been Florida Atlantic and Central Florida, not exactly two powerhouse programs and what do you get? The #2 ranking in the country. Who thinks this South Florida team is deserving of this ranking? I don't !
I do think they are a solid team, but what have they really done to prove themselves this year. Look at the schedule of games and look at those teams then and now. In case you forgot, South Florida had one home loss last year. Guess who? That's right, Rutgers ! This is a monumental opportunity for South Florida and I don't see them responding.
In the year of the upset, nine teams ranked in the Top 10 have gone down to defeat the past two weeks. South Florida will be no different. Rutgers gets the job done tonight and proves that they are worth all the hype. Ray Rice will get 100+ tonight and be the first back to break the century mark against this USF defense. This can make Rutgers year as they head down the stretch and they will knock off South Florida tonight.
As far as the baseball goes, the Red Sox are done. They should have thrown Beckett in Game 4 and grab momentum back, they didn't and now their done. Sabathis can equal Beckett tonight and I wouldn't be surprised if the Indians break thru in extra innings. They will win this game in the bullpens. Take the Indians !
posted by morpheus
Oct. 18 2007 8:54am -
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Repost of yesterday's pick (I got too excited for the game and posted a day early).......
BoSox -118 (listed)
Post season record 3-3 (+0.4 units)
Final regular season 84-53-1 (+21.86 units)
Good luck
posted by gocubsgo22
Oct. 18 2007 10:28am -
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Rutgers wins this game s/u but I'll be safe and take the points and not the ml. Bases lean right now as much as I hate to say it is to Bosox and Beckett. Ole Josh is a post season stud.
posted by hilly
Oct. 18 2007 10:39am -
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rutgers does seem like the play tonight. i however am gonna lay off of it as south florida has some slippers on and i don't want to fuck with it. also, i'd like to see south florida stay undefeated for the season.
glta
posted by jtmoney16
Oct. 18 2007 10:55am -
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I like Rutgers ML tonight as well!
Bosox will take it back to Fenway- Beckett finds a way to win!
I got a BIG inside tip on an NHL game last night! Phoenix will win tonight against Edmonton. I expect a score of 4-1!
Frosty
posted by frosty
Oct. 18 2007 11:53am -
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Warning: Phoenix might be playing their back-up goalie tonight.
Here's my NHL write up found in the NHL section. I'm 9-3-1 in so far in pucks, so I'm starting the season on a hot streak. Not BP hot, but hot nonetheless.
NJ/Phi O 5.5 EV.
Brodeur is not on his game so far this year. It seems the Devils are compensating for this by opening up the ice. The trap is not being employed in Jersey.
Leans
TO/Florida O6.5 +115. Toronto has been over this total in the last 5 games and 6/7 this season. They are leading the league in scoring and have a shoddy defence. Beware, though. Florida's goalie can steal the show and the TO defence took a beating in the press after the Buff game.
posted by sherlock37
Oct. 18 2007 12:15pm -
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Taking the OVER 52.5 in Rut/S.FL game
Leaning towards RUT +3 as well.
Goodluck
posted by close_call
Oct. 18 2007 2:08pm -
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Guys be very careful on tonights game.....
DONT get
COMPROMISED 
posted by mustand1z
Oct. 18 2007 3:59pm -
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INDIANS +110
S.FLA. -2.5
TCU -3.5
posted by cowboysfan
Oct. 18 2007 4:55pm -
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*** here are Dr. Bobs plays---be careful---I will re-post a post that To Win shared with us recently***
Dr. Bob - Week 8 - NCAA CFB for Thursday Night's games.
Dr. Bob - Week 8 - NCAA CFB
Here is the analysis for Thursday Night's games. Neither of the two games tonight is a Best Bet or Strong Opinion.
Thursday, October 18
RUTGERS 24 South Florida (-2 ½) 23
South Florida has climbed all the way to #3 in the polls and #2 in the initial BCS rankings, but that means that they are now the hunted and it looks like another top 5 team may go down to defeat. The Bulls are fantastic defensively, allowing just 3.8 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but Rutgers has been nearly as good offensively. The Scarlet Knights have averaged 7.3 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. That attack has not played as well, on a relative basis, against decent defensive teams, but I’d still rate Rutgers’ attack at 1.1 yppl better than average after taking that into account. While South Florida has a 0.4 yppl advantage when Rutgers has the ball, the Scarlet Knights have an even bigger edge when their defense is on the field. South Florida has been only 0.2 yppl better than average on offense this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but Rutgers is 0.7 yppl better than average on defense (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense). I decided to take Rutgers’ game against an overmatched Norfolk State out of my math model while also taking out South Florida’s game against Elon (the Bulls actually didn’t play well in that game as they could have been looking forward to Auburn). The math still favors Rutgers by 1 point and there are positive situations favoring both teams in this game. I’ll lean with Rutgers as a home dog.
TCU (-3 ½) 24 Utah 22
Utah has won 3 straight games since quarterback Brian Johnson returned to the starting lineup and the Utes have a chance to make it 4 in a row tonight. Johnson doesn’t have the receiving corps that allowed him to average 7.7 yards per pass play as a starter in 2005 and his numbers are a bit below average after compensating for the poor pass defenses that he’s been throwing against. The rushing attack went from horrible to decent when coaches decided not to redshirt Darrell Mack and Mack has piled up 622 yards in his 5 starts while averaging 5.2 ypr. Utah is still 0.2 yards per play below average offensively even with Johnson at quarterback and Mack running the ball and that unit should struggle against a Horned Frogs defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average and has only allowed Texas to average more than 5.0 yppl (Texas only got 5.6 yppl). TCU’s mediocre attack (0.1 yppl below average with Dalton at quarterback) will also struggle in this game against a solid Utah stop unit that’s yielded only 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl against an average team. These teams are very even from the line of scrimmage, but Utah has an edge on special teams and my math model only favors the Horned Frogs by 2 points. TCU tends to play their best at home against decent teams (22-6 ATS at home when not favored by more than 13 points), but Utah has a long history of success as an underdog (43-15-2 ATS, 5-3-1 ATS under their current coach). I’ll lean with the Utes but wouldn’t recommend playing this game given the team trends that favor both sides.
Dont know if any of you follow Dr. Bob, but found this on another site that someone posted and thought some may be interested. Dont know if true or not, but thought I would pass on the information.
GL
to win
"Just joined the posting forum, but have been a longtime reader. There's really some great stuff in here and I appreciate all the information.
I'm sure all of you one time or another have heard of the handicapper/tout by the name of Bob Stoll, a.k.a, Dr. Bob. For the last couple years in college football he has hit a rate of 60-65% of his games, leading to a Wall Street Journal Article about his success and a numerous of clients paying $1000 for the college football season.
When joining his service (unfortunately, I did this year), you have access to his Best Bets ranked from 2-5 Stars. His college football plays are released every Thurday at 4:45pm eastern. At that time, he posts how many Best Bets he has for the week and releases them every three minutes after that.
Dr. Bob claims to have success with his service you need to bet his Best Bets immediately due to line changes. The line changes anywhere from 1-4 points about 2-3 minutes after each Best Bet is released. Bob claims that the line movement is due to the success he has had in the past and that most sportsbooks have caught on.
Well this year he's a pathetic 10-20 with his best bets (3-15 the last 3 weeks), which he claims is totally uncharacteristic of his past success. Bob has told his clients (me included) that his poor record is "simple variance," and a indication of his performance should be looked at his 57-60% rate he's had in the past.
I'd decided to look further into it. I've got a family member that works at a Vegas sportsbook. When talking to him this AM, he asked how I was doing this year in college football, and I said I was betting Dr. Bob's best bets and he's hitting about 20% instead of the 60% in years past. He began laughing and went on to say, "Well there's a reason for that. I'd be very careful with Dr. Bob, he's crooked."
When asking what he meant by that comment he elaborated by saying Dr. Bob has been approached by a huge Vegas gambler that paid him a tremendous amount of money (5 million) to release the wrong side of his Best Bets to his clients. In turn the line would change 1-4 points, and then this Vegas gambler and Dr. Bob could bet the other side, the correct side that Dr. Bob would normally release to his clients in the past, and get the better line.
Apparently, this vegas gambler has been doing this for the past 3 weeks which could help explain Dr. Bob's horrible 3-15 record. So beware Dr. Bob players, proceed with caution...the only one's benefiting from his service are the Vegas gambler, Dr. Bob and sportsbooks (local, offshore or Vegas). So either quit betting on his plays or go the opposite side of his Best Bet releases. "
_________________
T.O.
posted by thenooch
Oct. 18 2007 6:21pm -
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T.O/Florida O 6.5 is no longer a lean, it's a play. Vokoun is out, and Florida is starting Craig Anderson.
posted by sherlock37
Oct. 18 2007 6:34pm -
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plays for tonight....
U 24 1H Utah
S FLO -2
U 4.5 1st 5 innings
riding...
Phoenix and O 5.5...
~~~~
also, the MICH play is down to a pick em. I like them to win SU...
posted by thenooch
Oct. 18 2007 6:34pm -
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2 benjis on the road favorite tonight for me
USF - the small tariff
GL Guys
posted by phball101
Oct. 18 2007 7:07pm -
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* OVER 52 Rut./S.Fla.
Tease tomight.........
*S.Fla. +4 & Utah +10
Good Luck !
posted by beesmart
Oct. 18 2007 7:22pm -
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BTW, the U 24 is my only 4 U play. the rest are 2 U
(I actually did play Sherlock's O 6 (-130) in TO v. Flo game for 4 U also because of the great value I was getting w out the hook).
posted by thenooch
Oct. 18 2007 7:28pm -
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Sorry Nooch. 4 goals in the first 30 mins. I really thought we'd cash.
posted by sherlock37
Oct. 18 2007 10:10pm