35 views

0 likes

NEWSLETTERS FOR WEEK OF 10/17

Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!

America's Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!

11 KANSAS CITY over *Oakland

Late Score Forecast:

KANSAS CITY 24 - *Oakland 13

(Sunday, October 21)

It has taken K.C. a little while to get things rolling following RB Larry

Johnson's holdout for most of training camp, QB Damon Huard's lingering calf

injury at the start of the season, and DE Jared Allen's initial two-game NFL

suspension. But those factors are now all in the past, as the Chiefs have

won three of their last four games (including a road victory at S.D.) to

become major players in the AFC West. Oakland, banged up in the DL, could

not cope with LaDainian Tomlinson on some basic plays last week, and figures

to have continuing problems with Larry Johnson (112 YR week ago). Also,

physical rookie WR Dwayne Bowe (28 recs.; 3 TDC) is complementing TE Tony

Gonzales (38 & 3). DE Allen has six sacks in just four games, joining DE

Tamba Hali & LB Derrick Johnson in providing high-quality pass-rush pressure.

10 *INDIANA over Penn State

Late Score Forecast:

*INDIANA 24 - Penn State 21

You don't have to be as smart as Kelvin Sampson (...?) to figure out Penn

State's performance pattern. Simply, Nittany Lions have dropped off

alarmingly away from Happy Valley lately (1-6 SU and vs. line as visitor

since last season), and this trip to Bloomington will be just as difficult as

other recent road adventures. Doubt erratic PSU QB Morelli (just 1 TDP & 3

picks in two road starts TY) can put Indiana in the sort of hole Michigan

State did week ago, when Hoosiers were forced into catch-up mode early.

Meanwhile, IU's playmaking soph QB Lewis (16 TDP) has sufficient "quicks" to

diffuse Joe Paterno's aggressive defensive tactics, while smaller Nittany

Lion DBs no doubt having nightmares about prospects of dealing with IU's

rangy 6-7 wideout Hardy (almost 20 yards per catch and 9 TDs!).

10 *MISSISSIPPI over Arkansas

Late Score Forecast:

*MISSISSIPPI 24 - Arkansas 19

Recuperative powers of each will be tested after respective bitter losses

week ago. But SEC sources keeping closer tabs on Arkansas situation that many

believe could begin to deteriorate rapidly with negative rumors of HC Nutt's

future beginning to dominate Razorback Nation. And we're not sure a

turnaround is imminent, especially with playmaking WR Monk still sidelined,

robbing QB Dick (who's completing SEC-low 51%) of the field-stretching

element Hog "O" could use to properly complement RBs McFadden (slowed by sore

ribs) and Felix Jones. Combative "rivalry dog" Ole Miss has covered last five

chances as SEC dog at noisy Vaught-Hemingway. Prefer Rebel balance with sr.

QB Adams (12 TDP) and fleet group of wideouts that provide dangerous aerial

diversion for chop-busting RB Green-Ellis.

11 *MISSOURI over Texas Tech

Late Score Forecast

*MISSOURI 45 - Texas Tech 30

Missouri HC Gary Pinkel has raised expectations and excitement in Columbia,

and the team has responded by notching an 8-1-1 spread mark last 10 at home.

Tigers went to Oklahoma last week without services of top RB Tony Temple

(career 5.3 ypc), who stayed home with an ankle sprain. Temple should be

back to full speed for this weekend after being upgraded to probable on

Monday. Mizzou QB Chase Daniel threw for 361 yds. against an Oklahoma

defense that's much stronger than the Texas Tech group, which yielded 49

points in its only tough road game at Oklahoma State. With Temple back in

the Tiger game plan, the Red Raiders will be kept off balance throughout the

contest. Missouri has faced a much more difficult slate of games than Tech,

and Red Raiders just 8-14 vs. the number away from home since 2004.

10 AUBURN over *Lsu

Late Score Forecast:

AUBURN 17 - *Lsu 16

Long-time SEC scouts say oddsmakers not giving 5-2 Auburn (early 10-pt. dog)

enough respect in this critical SEC West showdown, considering talented, deep

Tigers getting healthier with recent return of LB Blackmon & C Bosley (DE

Groves expected back this week). And with LSU's QB Flynn hampered some by a

nagging high ankle sprain & inconsistent WR corps (4 drops vs. Kentucky), the

offense won't find any groove vs. fast & fierce Auburn stop unit (16 ppg, 3.2

ypc) that's already faced 3 highly-mobile QBs (USF's Grothe, Florida's Tebow

& Vandy's Nickson). Meanwhile, Auburn's battle-tested, accurate QB Cox (58%)

will use some play-action, with physical RBs Tate & Lester having success vs.

LSU front 7 less than dominating past two weeks. And keep in mind confident

Auburn has won 13 of its last 14 on SEC road, and is 8-1 SU last 9 vs. Top

Ten foes!

TOTALS: OVER (46.5) in Minnesota-Dallas game-Vikes rugged vs. the run, but

showed again last week they are still vulnerable to the pass; young Minny

backfield unlikely to go two straight games without a turnover...UNDER (34.5)

in the Baltimore-Buffalo game-It seems as if the Baltimore offense is geared

to score FGs; Bills' offense has only two TDs in the last two games.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): WEST VIRGINIA (-23) VS. Mississippi

State-Rested Mounties torched MSU "D" for 314 yards & 5 TDs on the ground in

'06 meeting & WV 5-0 TY laying double-digits...TEXAS A&M (+2) at Nebraska-A&M

4-1 vs. number last 5 on Big XII road & Callahan's Huskers failed to cover

last 6 games...STANFORD (+10) at Arizona-Cardinal HC Jim Harbaugh has team

headed in right direction. Arizona just 2-6 last 8 as chalk...PURDUE (-7)

over Iowa-Purdue should bounce back at home coming off losses to Ohio St. &

Michigan. Hawkeyes have injury & suspension issues and are just 5-11 vs.

number last 16 away from home...BUFFALO (+3) vs. Baltimore-Bill QB Trent

Edwards has completed 70% of his passes in relief of J.P. Losman, who might

return, and NFL home dogs are 63-45 the last 1+ seasons.

posted by phantom

Oct. 15 2007 9:05pm

24 replies

0 likes

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21

WASHINGTON 17 - Arizona 10--Both teams beat up (check status of Arizona QB Kurt Warner, left elbow; Washington LT Samuels, leg; RT Wade, groin; and C Rabach, groin). Arizona (down to newly-signed Tim Rattay 3 ints. last week) hardly needed another QB injury, and Redskins were already missing two OL starters. Perhaps siding with Washington and its top-ranked defense (through Week Five) and the "under" might offer some benefit.

(05-Washington -3' 17-13...SR: Washington 71-44-2)

NEW ORLEANS 21 - Atlanta 20--One victory, spurred by a terrible punt snap by opponent Seattle, does not prove that the Saints are back on their playoff track of LY. They still have plenty of flaws, as do the Falcons. But Atlanta's new OL combo now has a game under its belt, and Falcs have continued to play hard for Bobby Petrino despite all their adversity TY. Atlanta gives its NFC South rival a game of it.

(06-N. ORL. 23-Atl. 3...N.19-10 N.34/146 A.23/117 N.20/28/0/180 A.12/31/0/112 N.0 A.0)

(06-N. Orl. 31-ATL. 13...A.21-20 A.45/281 N.25/95 N.21/30/0/332 A.9/24/0/52 N.0 A.0)

(06-NEW ORLEANS +3' 23-3, New Orleans +3 31-13...SR: Atlanta 44-32)

BUFFALO 16 - Baltimore 13--Neither of these teams harkens memories of Don Coryell's old San Diego Chargers. And at this stage, perhaps Kyle Boller (started last week vs. Rams) a better alternative than banged-up Steve McNair at QB for Baltimore. But we'd rather not lay points on road with Ravens, as low-octane "O" continues to stall in red zone (PK Stover 18 FGs already!), and banged-up OL started three rookie subs last week. Meanwhile, J.P. Losman (knee) might be available for Buffalo, although Dick Jauron might opt for poised Stanford rookie QB Edwards, who has produced home-dog covers his first two starts.

(06-BAL. 19-Buf. 7...Ba.18-10 Ba.30/111 Bu.14/39 Ba.22/36/1/216 Bu.20/35/2/214 Ba.0 Bu.1)

(06-BALTIMORE -9' 19-7...SR: Baltimore 2-1)

DALLAS 24 - Minnesota 20--Everyone knew Adrian Peterson was good, but last week's 224 YR and 3 TD jaunts on just 20 carries at Chicago were a revelation. This is even a bigger game for the Texas native (from Palestine, TX). And let's not forget the Vikes are 1-0-2 vs. the spread on the road TY, with their biggest loss by just 3 points. Tarvaris Jackson (no ints. in Chicago) playing more carefully, while Tony Romo has tossed nine interceptions.

(2007 Preseason: Minnesota -2' beat Dallas 23-14 at Minnesota)

(04-MINNESOTA -6 35-17...SR: Dallas 13-12)

OVER THE TOTAL New England 42 - MIAMI 20--Little seems to bother the pointspread-perfect, leadership-rich Patriots and their 38 ppg offense, with Tom Brady now up to 21 TDP and Randy Moss with 8 TDC. Worse yet for 0-6 Miami, slick former Dolphin WR/KR Wes Welker (38 recs.) & RB Sammy Morris (check status) return to face their old team, which can't stop the run and can barely slow down good passers. What veteran N.E. misses speed-wise on defense, it makes up for in intelligence (Junior Seau 3 ints.). Miami QB Cleo Lemon had two TDP & two TDR last week in Cleveland, but also two interceptions. High-octane Pats "over" 10 of last 12 games.

(06-N. ENG. 20-Miami 10...M.19-17 N.34/79 M.21/62 M.26/41/2/221 N.16/29/0/134 N.1 M.1)

(06-MIAMI 21-N. Eng. 0...M.19-12 M.31/131 N.25/123 M.18/30/0/184 N.14/28/0/66 M.0 N.2)

(06-NEW ENGLAND -9' 20-10, MIAMI +3' 21-0...SR: Miami 48-35)

NY GIANTS 23 - San Francisco 10--Whether it's sore-kneed Alex Smith or 35-year-old Trent Dilfer at QB, it's hard to envision S.F. shaking out of its offensive doldrums (less than 200 yds. of offense 4 of 5 games TY) vs. hard-charging N.Y. front seven. Giants tied for first with 17 sacks through Week Five, and rookie CB Aaron Ross adding valuable coverage ability. With foes focused on him, 49er RB Gore averaging a frustrating 61 ypg & 3.6 ypc. Eli 7-1 SU and vs. spread last 8 in October (prior to Atlanta game). Niners "under" 10 of last 14.

(05-NY Giants -10' 24-6...SR: San Francisco 17-15)

DETROIT 23 - Tampa Bay 17--Lions among the leaders in passing, but they pay for it in their Martz-designed offense, with 32 sacks allowed, 8 ints., and low-ranking ground game. Still, their firepower vs. injury-depleted T.B. offense should give them an edge on their quick turf at home. First meeting of former Bucs' DL coach Rod Marinelli vs. former boss Jon Gruden and longtime friend, def. coord. Monte Kiffin. T.B. ground game hurting (30 YR last week).

(05-TAMPA BAY -6' 17-13...SR: Detroit 26-25)

Tennessee 20 - HOUSTON 16--Dynamics of this contest could change if Vince Young (quad injury) can't make post for Tennessee, and Kerry Collins (relieved Vince last week at T.B) gets start. And if it's Collins, we probably don't have to worry about Titans prevailing in same fashion they did in last visit to Houston (V.Y.'s madcap 39-yard OT TD scramble in his "homecoming" last December). But Tennessee more likely to win games with defense (only 14 ppg) this season, and Texan QB Schaub desperate to get injured WRs A. Johnson & rookie J. Jones back in lineup to enliven host's wheezing attack.

(06-TENN. 28-Hou. 22...H.26-10 H.26/148 T.27/111 H.33/46/2/279 T.7/15/0/86 T.0 H.3)

(06-Tenn. 26-HOU. 20 (OT)...T.22-15 T.33/218 H.30/107 T.19/29/1/200 H.17/23/0/133 T.1 H.0)

(06-TENNESSEE -3 28-22, Tennessee +1 26-20 (OT)...SR: Tennessee 8-2)

Kansas City 20 - OAKLAND 16--Damon Huard's shoulder injury early last week turned out to be pretty much a mirage, as he enjoyed a 25 of 35, 2-TDP game vs. in Chiefs' 27-20 win vs. Cincy. More importantly, Larry Johnson (119 YR) got back on track in the contest, and the defense collected four sacks and two interceptions. When Oakland can't get its ground attack rolling, the Raider aerial game comes under heavy pressure (Daunte Culpepper 2 ints., 6 sacks last week).

(06-K. CITY 17-Oak. 13...K.21-18 K.37/200 O.34/133 O.15/25/1/193 K.9/16/0/92 K.0 O.0)

(06-K. City 20-OAK. 9...K.19-18 K.38/150 O.24/112 O.27/37/2/195 K.12/24/1/142 K.0 O.3)

(06-KANSAS CITY -9 17-13, Kansas City -7 20-9...SR: Kansas City 51-43-2)

CINCINNATI 27 - NY Jets 13--Bengals (LBs Ahmad Brooks & Rashad Jeanty out again with injuries last week) can't seem to get healthy on defense. Too bad Jets (29th in total defense prior to last week) can't seem to stop decent offenses when they are healthy. And N.Y. certainly can't match Cincy's firepower, especially since Jets rarely get to opposing passers (only 6 sacks, 4 ints. TY). Would like Bengals even more if RB Rudi Johnson (check status) able to rejoin WRs C.J. & T.J. on offense.

(04-NY JETS -5 31-24...SR: NY Jets 13-6)

Chicago 27 - PHILADELPHIA 20--Yes, Chicago's 2007 defense is not as dominating as LY's Super Bowl team. But whether Andy Reid's low-risk "O" (Philly 16 points or fewer in 4 of first 5) has the weaponry to capitalize, as did the Vikes with rookie RB Adrian Peterson last week, remains to be seen. A big positive for the Bears is their now more-potent offense, with Brian Griese (381 YP & 3 TDP last week vs. Vikes) making better decisions than Rex Grossman and able to better exploit speed WRs Berrian & Hester. "Totals" alert--Chicago "over" last 4 (and 16 of last 22).

(04-Philadelphia -9 19-9...SR: Chicago 25-10-1)

SEATTLE 26 - St. Louis 10--Mike Holmgren was so angry with his offense's 21-0 loss in Pittsburgh that he pulled QB Hasselbeck late in the game, and for a while it looked as if he would spontaneously erupt during last Sunday night's 28-17 home loss vs. winless New Orleans. So, with their minds properly focused, and the Rams playing without their starting LT, LG, QB, RB, one WR and one S, last week in Baltimore, the Seahawks figure to take no prisoners if given an opening. Ram sub QB Gus Frerotte had 5 ints., 1 fumble, and 4 sacks last week. (Check status of Marc Bulger.)

(06-Sea. 30-ST. LOU. 28...St.21-20 Se.28/125 St.22/59 St.26/39/1/309 Se.19/34/0/239 Se.1 St.1)

(06-SEA. 24-St. Lou. 22...Se.19-18 Se.26/160 St.20/108 St.26/40/1/191 Se.15/23/0/123 Se.2 St.0)

(06-Seattle -3 30-28, SEATTLE -3' 24-22...SR: St. Louis 10-8)

*Pittsburgh 27 - DENVER 17--Payback time for Steelers, who played Santa Claus last Nov. 5 vs. Denver, giving away the ball six times, helping Jake Plummer burn them with three TDP. Banged-up Ben Roethlisberger passed for 433 yds., but 3 ints., in the contest, which saw WR Javon Walker pick up 72 of the Broncos' 115 rush yards on one well-timed reverse. But Walker (knee; check status) has missed the last two games, and Rod Smith (PUP list) has missed them all. Broncos are last vs. the run and just 1-11 last 12 vs. spread at home! TV--NBC

(06-Denver 31-PITT 20...P.27-13 D.23/115 P.19/96 P.38/54/3/403 D.16/27/0/221 D.0 P.3)

(06-Denver +3 31-20...SR: Denver 15-9-1)

MONDAY, OCTOBER 22

*JACKSONVILLE 24 - Indianapolis 17--Jags have played the Colts about as well as anyone in recent years, going 6-3-1 vs. spread last 10 in series, and hammering Indy for an amazing 375 YR in LY's meeting in Jacksonville. Choice by HC Del Rio of QB Garrard has been a wise one, as he's avoided any ints. through the first six games and has scrambled for some key first downs. Indy only 1-6 last 7 as a road favorite, and Colts figure to be at an added disadvantage if key players such as RB Addai, WR M. Harrison, and S Bob Sanders not back from their injuries. CABLE TV--ESPN

(06-INDY 21-Jack. 14...J.20-14 J.40/191 I.20/63 I.14/31/0/209 J.16/28/2/106 I.0 J.0)

(06-JACK. 44-Indy 17...23-23 J.42/375 I.20/34 I.25/50/1/305 J.8/14/1/72 J.0 I.0)

(06-INDIANAPOLIS -6' 21-14, JACKSONVILLE +1 44-17...SR: Indianapolis 9-3)

MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

Indianapolis and Jacksonville on Monday Night

Indianapolis is 6-6 straight-up and 3-9 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;

12-4 straight-up and 10-6 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.

Jacksonville is 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;

1-2 straight-up and 1-2 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-07)

Favorites vs. Pointspread

Favored by 1-6Â½ points Won 84, Lost 89, Tied 4

Favored by 7 points or more Won 33, Lost 26, Tied 2

Total Favorites Won 117, Lost 115, Tied 6

Home Teams vs. Pointspreads

Home Team Favorite Won 84, Lost 85, Tied 6

Home Team Underdog Won 30, Lost 32

Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0

Total Home Team Won 115, Lost 117, Tied 6

HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)

2006 Reg. Seas.: Jacksonville +1 beat Indianapolis 44-17 at Jacksonville

2006 Reg. Seas.: Indianapolis -6Â½ beat Jacksonville 21-14 at Indianapolis

NFL KEY RELEASES

CHICAGO by 7 over Philadelphia

JACKSONVILLE by 7 over Indianapolis

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

OVER THE TOTAL in the New England-Miami game

NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS

All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.

TOTAL HOME AWAY

TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA

Arizona 9 2 3-3 3-2-1 3-3 21-23 2-1 18-20 1-1 25-26

Atlanta 10 2 1-4 3-2 2-3 14-20 1-1 23-22 2-1 8-19

Baltimore 5 2 4-2 1-5 2-2 18-17 1-2 23-13 0-3 14-20

Buffalo 10 3 1-4 3-2 2-3 13-24 3-0 18-18 0-2 5-32

Carolina 7 2 4-2 4-2 2-4 21-18 0-2 14-27 4-0 24-14

Chicago- 8 2 2-4 1-5 4-2 20-25 0-3 20-26 1-2 19-24

Cincinnati 7 3 1-4 2-3 3-2 25-31 1-1 20-27 1-2 29-34

Cleveland 9 3 3-3 4-2 5-0 28-31 3-1 32-31 1-1 21-30

Dallas 1 3 5-1 4-2 5-1 34-24 2-1 36-30 2-1 32-18

Denver 8 1 2-3 0-5 4-1 15-27 0-3 13-28 0-2 18-26

Detroit 11 4 3-2 2-2-1 3-2 23-31 1-0 29-22 1-2 20-37

Green Bay 6 3 5-1 4-1-1 4-2 24-18 2-1 21-20 2-0 29-15

Houston 10 2 3-3 3-3 4-2 22-23 2-1 22-17 1-2 22-28

Indianapolis -2 4 5-0 3-2 3-2 33-18 3-0 37-15 0-2 26-22

Jacksonville 4 3 4-1 3-2 2-3 20-12 1-2 20-12 2-0 20-11

Kansas City 10 4 3-3 3-2-1 2-4 15-17 1-1 16-16 2-1 14-19

Miami 11 2 0-6 1-3-2 4-2 21-30 0-2 19-36 1-1 23-28

Minnesota+ 9 2 2-3 2-1-2 2-3 20-18 1-1 20-13 1-0 20-21

New England+ -6 5 6-0 6-0 5-1 38-15 3-0 37-13 3-0 40-18

New Orleans+ 6 2 1-4 1-4 2-2 16-27 0-2 14-24 1-2 17-30

NY Giants 6 3 3-2 3-2 3-1 25-25 2-1 21-21 1-1 30-31

NY Jets 11 1 1-5 1-4-1 3-2 18-26 0-2 18-27 1-2 17-24

Oakland 11 3 2-3 2-3 4-1 23-26 0-2 24-30 2-1 23-23

Philadelphia 5 3 2-3 2-3 1-4 20-16 1-1 34-21 1-2 11-14

Pittsburgh 3 4 4-1 4-1 2-3 26-9 3-0 28-6 1-1 24-14

St. Louis 15 3 0-6 1-5 1-5 12-27 1-2 20-26 0-3 4-27

San Diego 4 3 3-3 3-3 4-2 23-20 2-1 19-16 1-2 26-24

San Francisco 11 3 2-3 2-2-1 1-4 13-20 1-1 10-16 1-1 17-27

Seattle 8 3 3-3 2-4 2-4 17-17 1-2 20-18 1-2 14-16

Tampa Bay 7 3 4-2 3-2-1 2-4 18-15 2-0 23-9 1-2 13-20

Tennessee 5 2 3-2 3-1-1 0-4 19-14 1-1 20-18 2-0 18-12

Washington 8 3 3-2 2-1-2 0-4 20-14 1-1 22-13 1-0 17-15

College Analysis

KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES

Home team in CAPS. *â€”indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. Pâ€”Pick Game. SRâ€”Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NLâ€”No Line. OPRâ€”Average Opponentsâ€™ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().

Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HCâ€”Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). â€œOâ€â€”Offense. â€œDâ€â€”Defense. DDsâ€”Double Digits. OLâ€”Offensive Line or Lineman. DLâ€”Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.â€”Offensive Coordinator. d.c.â€”Defensive Coordinator. YRâ€”Yards Rushing. YPâ€”Yards Passing. recs.â€”Receptions. ints.â€”Interceptions. STsâ€”Special Teams. ypgâ€”Yards per Game. ppgâ€”Points per Game. ypcâ€”Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LYâ€”Last Year. TYâ€”This Year. Yâ€”Year or Years. TDPâ€”Touchdown Passes. FAâ€”Free Agent. SUâ€”Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 18

*South Florida 27 - RUTGERS 20--Speedy, sure-tackling South Florida stop unit hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in more than a year. The last? Rutgers' star RB Rice during narrow win at Tampa in Sept. 2006. With pro-caliber sr. CBs Jenkins & T. Williams locking down on Knights' blossoming soph WR Britt (23 catches for 581 yards last 5 games), swarming Bull front 7 & star soph DE Selvie (20Â½ tackles for loss in first 6 games!) will make Rice earn every inch TY. Stubborn host will die hard, but QB Grothe's versatility gets profitable USF (covered 11 of last 14) over the top. TV--ESPN

(06-Rutgers 24-S. FLA. 22...19-19 R.45/226 S.25/92 S.17/26/2/255 R.11/20/1/100 R.0 S.1)

(06-Rutgers -3' 24-22 05-South Florida +2' 45-31...SR: EVEN 1-1)

*Utah 24 - TCU 22--It took a few weeks, but gears are finally meshing for Utah attack that posted another 500+ yards last week vs. S. Diego St. and has uncovered the necessary infantry diversion (RB Mack 426 YR last 3) to properly complement hot QB B. Johnson. Meanwhile, TCU's "D" bearing little resemblance to recent shut 'em down Fort Worth stop units, and still not sure if and when star Frog DE Blake will reappear.

(06-UTAH 20-Tcu 7...14-14 U.36/131 T.31/81 T.15/29/0/229 U.19/32/1/223 U.0 T.3)

(06-UTAH -2 20-7 05-TCU +3' 23-20 (OT)...SR: Utah 3-1)

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 19

*Northwestern 42 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 38--EMU showed a little spunk rallying from 28-0 deficit to contest Ohio U. last week, and "back door" might be open for Eagle QB Schmitt (20 of 28 passing, 210 YP & 4 TDP vs. Bobcats; check status). Respect Northwestern attack, as QB Bacher has thrown for 990 yards & 9 TDs with no ints. the last two weeks, but the Wildcats have yielded 89 points in those games. (at Detroit, MI)

(06-NWSTRN. 14-E. Mich. 6...N.15-5 N.44/156 E.28/87 N.16/26/1/110 E.9/25/2/47 N.1 E.0)

(06-NORTHWESTERN -17' 14-6...SR: Northwestern 1-0)

*CONNECTICUT 27 - Louisville 26--Last week's win at rival Cincinnati a major boost for Louisville's sagging confidence. UConn well coached & fundamentally sound. Still, Cards' star sr. QB Brohm has 23 TDP, only 4 ints., and a very bright NFL future, while Husky counterpart Lorenzen, a juco transfer, adjusting to major college action. But L'ville defense still problematic. TV--ESPN

(06-LVL. 48-Conn. 17...L.28-8 L.44/221 C.31/147 L.21/29/1/349 C.7/19/1/89 L.2 C.1)

(06-LOUISVILLE -28' 48-17 05-Louisville -15 30-20...SR: Louisville 3-0)

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 20

SYRACUSE 28 - Buffalo 27--Beleaguered Syracuse HC G. Robinson & his awful Orange about as popular as foot fungus in upstate New York these days. Improving Buffalo has some good young playmakers on offense. Host has more experience on defense and a lot of desperation. Step down in class enables 'Cuse to eke out SU win.

(05-SYRACUSE -24 31-0 04-Syracuse -15 37-17...SR: EVEN 3-3-1)

Miami-Ohio 21 - TEMPLE 19--Temple enjoying life in the MAC, as the Owls are on a 2-game winning streak for the first time since 2002. QB DiMichele's three 4th-Q TD passes to rally Temple vs. Akron a sign Al Golden's team headed in right direction. Miami-O. off emotional home victory against Bowling Green (honored the late Terry Hoeppner and Ben Roethlisberger), and despite success, RedHawk attack missing some key cogs due to injuries. (05-Miami-Ohio -21 41-14...SR: Miami-Ohio 1-0)

WEST VIRGINIA 48 - Mississippi State 17--Now that rested 5-1 WV back in national title picture, prefer to lay the lumber vs. MSU squad that allowed 314 YR vs. Mounties spread attack in LY's 42-14 home loss. Bulldogs true frosh QB Carroll will be forced into many 3rd-and-long passing situations, since State's bread-and-butter ground game won't get untracked again vs. WV's toughening run defense (just 2.8 ypc, only 56 YR LY!). Croom's tiring squad (8th straight without a bye) wears down vs. explosive Mounties, who've won their two games in Morgantown TY by combined 110-31 margin.

(06-W. Va. 42-MISS. ST. 14...M.25-20 W.44/314 M.37/56 M.17/35/2/250 W.6/10/0/92 W.0 M.0)

(06-West Virginia -21 42-14...SR: West Virginia 1-0)

Penn State 22 - INDIANA 20--Prefer to count on "regression to the mean" after disparate results for these two last week. Can't see laying a premium number with Nittany Lion side that still gets uneven performances from QB Morelli and has suspended its top RB (Austin Scott). Penn State just 2-7 vs. number last 9 away from home, and Hoosier QB Kellen Lewis' speed will keep Nittany Lion defense off balance.

(04-Penn State -3' 22-18...SR: Penn State 10-0)

CLEMSON 38 - Central Michigan 26--This has been good pointspread role for rested Clemson, as Tigers' speed at skill positions usually too much for this level of foe. And vulnerable CMU defense will definitely have its hands full. Still, Chips' confident soph QB LeFevour, who's passed for 611 yards & 7 TDs and run for 246 yards & another 5 scores in just last 2 games, has enough weapons to avoid blowout. (FIRST MEETING)

WISCONSIN 38 - Northern Illinois 10--Wisconsin's embarrassing performance at Penn State should ensure a focused effort this week against injury-depleted NIU that owns just 1 win this season. Badger star RB Hill, who's been slowed by a groin injury, will get relief from backup Lance Smith (7.9 ypc, only available for home games). Banged-up Huskie defensive front yielding 4.6 ypc. (DNP...SR: Wisconsin 9-1)

Arkansas 24 - MISSISSIPPI 23--Since disappointing Arkansas (0-3 in SEC!) still seriously misses the services of star WR Monk (embattled HC Nutt said it himself on national TV following bitter loss vs. Auburn), will "take" with hard-trying, offensively-balanced Ole Miss squad that's 5-0 as a home dog since '06. Hogs ace RB McFadden (season-low 43 YR vs. Auburn) has been bothered by sore ribs. And must give QB edge to Rebel triggerman S. Adams (58%, 12 TDs) over inconsistent Arkansas counterpart Dick (SEC-low 51%). Hiccupping Hogs 1-7-1 vs. spread last 9.

(06-ARK. 38-Miss. 3...A.15-14 A.37/141 M.31/102 A.14/18/0/205 M.13/36/0/143 A.0 M.0)

(06-ARK. -20' 38-3 05-Ark. +1 28-17 04-ARK. -9' 35-3...SR: Arkansas 29-23-1)

SOUTH CAROLINA 38 - Vanderbilt 16--USC's demanding HC Spurrier (he called his offense "putrid") will be cracking the whip after nearly blowing 21-3 halftime lead in 21-15 victory vs. N. Carolina. So expect focused 'Cocks to eventually pull away from Vandy squad lacking offensive punch (11th in SEC in scoring & total off.). Commodores' new 2-QB system not the answer vs. Carolina's confusing zone & blitz packages. Spurrier 7-2 vs. spread last 9 in SEC.

(06-S. Car. 31-VANDY 13...S.18-16 S.39/194 V.36/133 S.11/18/1/133 V.11/25/2/120 S.3 V.1)

(06-Usc -3' 31-13 05-USC -7' 35-28 04-Usc -3' 31-6...SR: South Carolina 14-2)

NAVY 33 - Wake Forest 32--This season's gridiron version of the long ago Bobby Fischer-Boris Spassky chess showdown? Whatever, we at least know Lou Holtz will be paying close attention in the ESPN studio to two of his favorite teams and coaches (Navy's Paul Johnson and Wake's Jim Grobe). Although Mid "D" appears most vulnerable unit on field, Navy option humming with QB "Kaipo" at tiller, and Deacs not as menacing when favored (5-22-2 last 29 as chalk!). (DNP...SR: Wake Forest 5-2)

GEORGIA TECH 30 - Army 10--Hard-trying Army didn't get embarrassed in earlier trips to ACC reps Wake & Boston College. No real motivation for Tech (just 5-10 last 15 as DD favorite) to pile points on Knights, and good chance for Jackets to rest some of their nicked-up starters. (DNP...SR: Georgia Tech 2-1)

AIR FORCE 24 - Wyoming 20--MWC sources continuing to sing praises of AFA and new HC Calhoun, as resourceful Falcs shut down their more aggressive shotgun package in favor of successful interpretation of old option during last week's inclement weather at Fort Collins. But QB Carney capable of going up top if necessary, and d.c. DeRuyter's well-disguised blitzes could fluster hot-and-cold Wyo QB Sween (only 7 TDP vs. 9 picks).

(06-A. Force 31-WYO. 24...A.24-14 A.70/327 W.21/77 W.13/21/0/169 A.3/7/0/40 A.1 W.2)

(06-Afa P 31-24 05-Wyo. +2' 29-28 04-WYO. -2' 43-26...SR: Air Force 23-20-2)

WESTERN MICHIGAN 34 - Ball State 31--Recent play of WMU QB Hiller (830 YP, 7 TDP, just 1 int. last 3 games) points to Broncos winning a shootout in this one. WMU RB Bonds (330 YR last 3) helping to balance attack, and Ball State had trouble with Western Kentucky last week (allowed 411 total yards to Hilltoppers & only led 14-12 at the half).

(06-W. Mich. 41-BALL ST. 27...B.23-20 W.38/166 B.29/9 B.28/38/3/360 W.20/24/0/291 W.2 B.0)

(06-Wmu -3 41-27 05-Bsu +11' 60-57 (OT) 04-BSU +3' 41-14...SR: Western Michigan 19-14)

Kansas 27 - COLORADO 26--It's still a bit unclear what to make of Kansas, with its five blowout home wins over weak opposition, and its one narrow road victory (30-24 at K-State), in which KU trailed in the 4th Q. It is clear that young CU is improved TY, with 5-8 sr. dynamo Hugh Charles having strung together four straight 100-yd. rushing games, the defense usually holding its own (ask Oklahoma), and QB Hawkins (despite 12 ints.) enlivening the offense.

(06-KANSAS 20-Colo. 15...C.19-14 C.43/172 K.33/161 K.18/29/3/180 C.10/27/2/144 K.1 C.0)

(06-KANSAS -2 20-15 05-COLO. -15' 44-13 04-Colo. +2' 30-21...SR: Colorado 41-22-3)

Memphis 36 - RICE 31--Not much to recommend in battle between these C-USA bottom-feeders. Memphis 2-14 SU vs. Bowl Subdivision foes last 1+ seasons. But Rice deeply depressed after giving up 21 unanswered 4th-Q points & 748 total yards in last week's come-from-ahead loss to rival Houston. (FIRST MEETING)

Tulane 23 - SMU 21--Green Wave in transition (especially on offense), but also showing some spunk under new HC Toledo. Dallas scouts tell us SMU will probably be adjusting to their own new mentor next season, as Mustangs' 1-5 start finds HC Bennett back under heavy fire after promising 2006 campaign. Tulane RB Forte has 787 YR last 4.

(06-Smu 33-TULANE 28...S.24-22 S.38/98 T.21/M33 T.30/50/0/398 S.23/40/1/261 S.0 T.1)

(06-Smu -3 33-28 05-Tulane -3' 31-10...SR: Tulane 10-5)

Nevada 27 - UTAH STATE 24--WAC sources have alerted us to fundamental changes in Logan that have made still-winless USU at least a bit more competitive vs. line (covered last 2, and 3 of last 5). New o.c. Dickey (ex-North Texas HC) hellbent on establishing run, which has effectively slowed pace of games and kept still-vulnerable Utag "D" off field. Chris Ault's Nevada Pistol still adjusting to new triggerman Kaepernick (making just 2nd start).

(06-NEV. 42-Utah St. 0...N.21-13 N.44/202 U.38/125 N.12/20/0/140 U.9/21/3/82 N.2 U.0)

(06-NEVADA -29 42-0 05-Nevada -9' 30-24...SR: Nevada 13-4)

Tennessee 27 - ALABAMA 23--Resurgent UT (3 straight wins & covers) very much alive in SEC East. Vols now-punishing ground attack (401 YR last two games) will allow refined, well-protected sr. QB Ainge (67%, 21 TDs, just 3 ints., sacked only twice) to work play-action vs. depth-shy Bama defense vulnerable at CB spot opposite Castille (Bama has allowed SEC-high 12 TDP). Vols possess hotter kicking game with RS frosh PK Lincoln (12 of 13 FGs) & P Colquitt (43 yd. avg.). TV--CBS

(06-TENN. 16-Ala. 13...T.17-11 T.21/57 A.30/53 T.28/46/3/302 A.13/29/0/158 T.0 A.0)

(06-TENN. -11 16-13 05-ALA. -3' 6-3 04-TENN. -7 17-13...SR: Alabama 44-38-7)

Texas A&M 30 - NEBRASKA 24--With both teams coming off humiliating losses, will side with the more stable situation. NU's defense (104th in the nation) failing to stop just about everyone, which is bad news vs. the run-oriented spread-option offense of Aggies, ably led by mistake-minimizing QB Stephen McGee (only 6 ints. last 1+Ys). Husker offense failing frequently vs. quality foes, and discouraged defense being accused of not going all out.

(06-Neb. 28-TEX. A&M 27...N.19-13 T.27/155 N.38/123 T.19/32/0/288 N.21/36/1/267 N.0 T.0)

(06-Nebraska -1 28-27...SR: Nebraska 10-2)

Oklahoma 48 - IOWA STATE 13--With ISU's "small-play" offense fighting to gain just a few first downs (much less touchdowns) and haunted by giveaways (19), Cyclone defense reaping the whirlwind (56-3 loss vs. Texas last week). To make matters worse, OU has more offensive talent and depth than UT and is back in national title hunt in a big way.

(06-OKLA. 34-Iowa St. 9...O.17-12 O.34/185 I.29/89 O.16/27/0/195 I.14/25/2/149 O.0 I.0)

(06-OKLAHOMA -19 34-9...SR: Oklahoma 66-5-2)

MISSOURI 42 - Texas Tech 31--With Mizzou (8-1-1 vs. number last 10 as host) now selling out in Columbia and QB Chase Daniel expert at keeping the chains moving with his scrambles and darts to dual TEs Coffman & Rucker (78 combined receptions), will side with Tigers in this shootout. TT QB Harrell (74%, 31 TDs) & WR sensation Crabtree (78 recs., 17 TDs) will do their damage. But Red Raider offense loses a bit of its edge away from home.

(06-Mo. 38-TEX. TECH 21...T.29-18 M.40/133 T.16/78 T.44/61/2/378 M.15/22/1/173 M.0 T.3)

(06-Missouri +5 38-21...SR: Missouri 4-2)

California 29 - UCLA 20--Difficult call without knowing status of both QB situations. But with Ben Olson out, UCLA's problems more acute if Patrick Cowan (knee) can't make post, as Bruin "O" better off snapping directly to RBs Bell or Markey than entrusting walk-on Bethel-Thompson with the controls. Cal at least in better shape if QB Longshore (ankle) sidelined, as backup Riley moved Bears smartly before last-second brain cramp vs. Oregon State last week.

(06-CAL. 38-Ucla 24...C.24-23 U.34/187 C.34/167 U.22/40/2/329 C.20/24/0/266 C.1 U.0)

(06-CAL. -17' 38-24 05-UCLA -1 47-40 04-CAL. -16 45-28...SR: UCLA 48-28-1)

Southern Cal 26 - NOTRE DAME 13--No surprise if Charlie Weis pulls out every trick in the book (get ready for the green jerseys) as ND tries to break humbling 5-game losing streak vs. its hated old rival. But doubt current Irish QBs Clausen or Sharpley about to "wake up the echoes" this week. Still, after life-and-death struggles vs. Pac-10's bottom tier, and injury list growing exponentially (QB Booty could miss another start), not too comfy laying points with underachieving SC bunch that's just 2-10 last 12 as DD chalk. TV--NBC

(06-S. CAL 44-N. Dame 24...S.21-18 S.32/139 N.31/130 N.22/45/0/274 S.17/28/2/265 S.0 N.1)

(06-USC -8' 44-24 05-Usc -12 34-31 04-USC -23' 41-10...SR: Notre Dame 42-31-5)

FLORIDA STATE 16 - Miami-Florida 14--Remember when this blood feud had major national championship implications nearly every season? That luster might be gone, but bitter feelings and lots of speed on both defenses remain. Decision will likely hinge on which team gets a couple plays (or at least fewer mistakes) from its struggling QBs. Superior WRs tilt odds slightly in favor of host Florida State. But both teams struggling to score points. REG. TV--ABC

(06-Fla. St. 13-MIAMI 10...F.9-8 M.26/2 F.25/1 F.16/32/1/175 M.18/27/1/132 F.0 M.0)

(06-Fsu +3' 13-10 05-FSU +3 10-7 04-MIAMI -2 16-10 (OT)...SR: Florida St. 27-24)

Oregon 30 - WASHINGTON 24--Pointspread growing after last week's disparate efforts. And though playmaking RS frosh QB Locker giving U-Dub hope for the future, deficiencies in Husky passing game and defense becoming harder for Ty Willingham to camouflage as season progresses. But with Oregon down a few key playmakers (WR Colvin & RB J. Johnson out), Ducks might be hard-pressed to extend margin vs. old northwest rival.

(06-ORE. 34-Wash. 14...O.31-10 O.54/316 W.21/13 O.18/30/2/138 W.15/34/1/125 O.1 W.0)

(06-ORE. -14' 34-14 05-ORE. -16' 45-21 04-ORE. -20 31-6...SR: Washington 58-36-4)

OHIO STATE 40 - Michigan State 12--Michigan State attack has been impressive, as Spartans have averaged 42 ppg in 3 Big Ten games. However, Ohio State is the cream of the crop in the conference, and Buckeyes own the top-rated defense in the nation. OSU QB Boeckman 67% last 4 games & Buckeyes have handled Michigan St., covering last 4 in series. LSU's upset loss will serve to focus newly named No. 1 Ohio State. REGIONAL TV--ABC

(06-Ohio St. 38-MICH. ST. 7...O.20-13 O.44/182 M.30/63 O.16/24/0/239 M.19/30/1/135 O.1 M.0)

(06-Osu -14 38-7 05-OSU -6' 35-24 04-Osu -1 32-19...SR: Ohio State 25-12)

MARYLAND 23 - Virginia 13--Lightly-regarded Virginia has quietly won 6 straight, as Cavs' veteran defense hasn't allowed more than 3 TDs in any game this season. However, Maryland on recent uptick of its own. And rested Terps have found solid game manager in soph QB Turner to go with productive sr. RB duo of Lattimore & Ball. Poor-traveling UVa (just 9-23 vs. spread last 32 as visitor) lacks quality WRs.

(06-Mary. 28-VA. 26...V.19-17 V.35/181 M.34/174 V.13/21/1/243 M.17/28/1/171 M.0 V.1)

(06-Mary. -3' 28-26 05-MARY. +3' 45-33 04-VA. -14 16-0...SR: Maryland 41-28-2)

Bowling Green 27 - KENT STATE 24--Bowling Green HC Gregg Brandon called his team's loss to Miami-O. one of the most embarrassing games he's ever coached. Expect Falcons to come out with a much better effort this week, with Brandon working his OL into a frenzy after that group yielded 6 sacks against Miami. BG pass attack rebounds behind QB Sheehan & WRs Partridge & Barnes.

(06-Kent St. 38-B. GRN. 3...B.17-16 K.38/216 B.45/157 K.14/22/0/141 B.15/31/3/125 K.0 B.3)

(06-Kent St. +7 38-3 05-B. Green -11 24-14...SR: Bowling Green 52-16-6)

UCF 40 - Tulsa 33--Bullet-riddled UCF happy to be back at new Bright House home digs after being strafed for 116 points (!) in losses at E. Carolina & S. Florida. Smart Tulsa sr. QB P. Smith (369 ypg passing) will do damage. But, after being stuffed by stingy South Florida defense, Knights' jr. RB K. Smith (172 ypg rushing prior to last week) gets back on track vs. much more malleable Golden Hurricane (permitting 44 ppg in last 5).

(05-Tulsa -2 44-27 at Orlando...SR: Tulsa 1-0)

EAST CAROLINA 30 - North Carolina State 21--Pirates (134 points in last 3 games!) showing considerable offensive clout. Banged-up ECU defense not getting many stops, however. Sloppy State (just 5 takeaways vs. 22 giveaways!) has had extra week to try to clean up its act. But Pirates always give extra effort vs. the men from Raleigh.

(06-E. Car. 21-NCSU 16...E.20-13 E.38/124 N.29/107 E.14/29/0/220 N.17/28/1/186 E.0 N.0)

(06-Ecu +3 21-16 04-Ncs -21' 52-14...SR: North Carolina State 14-10)

ARIZONA 26 - Stanford 24--Arizona's bipolar performance pattern makes Cats a particularly difficult read, but recent history indicates Mike Stoops' bunch not to be trusted as chalk (just 2-6 in role since '04). Meanwhile, poised soph QB Pritchard has proven a defibrillator of sorts for Jim Harbaugh's version of West Coast "O," and playmaking Stanford wideouts Bradford, Moore, & Sherman can make UA "D" pay for its gambling tactics.

(06-Ariz. 20-STAN. 7...A.16-4 A.51/220 S.19/M6 A.10/13/1/74 S.8/13/0/58 A.0 S.1)

(06-Ariz. -3' 20-7 05-Stan. +4' 20-16...SR: Arizona 13-9)

San Jose State 26 - FRESNO STATE 27--Late collapse vs. potent Hawaii notwithstanding, October version of San Jose a lot better than September edition, as shrewd HC Tomey has patiently mixed and matched personnel to compensate for early spate of injuries. And thanks to its own enhanced infantry presence, Fresno getting back in groove as well. But with Spartan QB Tafralis (300+ YP last 4) firing away, SJS extremely live dog.

(06-SJSU 24-Fres. St. 14...F.23-17 S.36/187 F.36/154 S.15/27/1/216 F.21/37/4/215 S.1 F.0)

(06-SJS -4 24-14 05-FSU -33 45-7 04-Fsu -26 62-28...SR: Fresno State 35-33-3)

*Houston 34 - UAB 27--Birmingham scouts impressed by moxie rebuilding Blazers (4 straight covers) are displaying under new HC Callaway. Houston should eventually ride its well-balanced offense (748 yards last week!) to victory, but hard-fighting host won't make it easy. (04-UAB -9' 20-7...SR: UAB 4-1)

*Florida 34 - KENTUCKY 23--Kudos to HC Brooks & his undaunted UK squad for upsetting No. 1 ranked LSU. But would still rather lay price with refreshed, defensively-superior Florida squad that hasn't lost in series since 1986. With reliable WR Caldwell back in lineup, Gators versatile, bullish soph QB Tebow (500 YR, 66%, SEC-leading 326 ypg total offense) will do plenty of business vs. somewhat undersized, yielding Cat defense (last in SEC in rush "D"; 26 ppg, 44% on 3rd down) that must perform at max intensity for 3rd straight week. Crafty UF mentor Meyer has never dropped 3 straight.

(06-FLA. 26-Ky. 7...F.24-17 F.38/235 K.22/39 F.16/28/1/279 K.26/38/0/210 F.1 K.0)

(06-FLA. -26' 26-7 05-Fla. -23 49-28 04-FLA. -18' 20-3...SR: Florida 40-17)

*Boise State 31 - LOUISIANA TECH 17--La Tech sure not scoring many style points these days, and HC Dooley resorting to desperate measures (more-mobile QB Mosley got start last week vs. NMS before former starter Champion bailed him out in relief) to kick-start "O." So, outscoring potent Boise probably out of question. Yet Broncos rarely take their "blue carpet" KO power on road, and improved Bulldog "D" can keep hosts from humiliation.

(06-BOISE ST. 55-La. Tech 14...B.24-20 B.42/265 L.35/141 B.15/23/0/224 L.17/35/1/163 B.3 L.1)

(06-BSU -35' 55-14 05-Bsu -6' 30-13 04-BSU -24' 55-14...SR: Boise St. 5-4)

*PURDUE 27 - Iowa 16--Iowa reached back for superior home effort against youthful Illinois, but facing veteran Purdue QB Curtis Painter and mature Boiler spread attack on road will be a tougher challenge for the Hawkeyes. Iowa offense missing too many pieces due to injury & suspension to expect much scoring, and Boilermaker "D" stepping way down in class after facing potent Michigan & Ohio State in last two games.

(06-IOWA 47-Purdue 17...I.25-24 I.40/286 P.36/202 P.23/48/3/254 I.17/23/0/253 I.3 P.0)

(06-IOWA -11 47-17 05-Iowa +4' 34-17 04-IOWA P 23-21...SR: Purdue 44-32-4)

*Ohio 30 - TOLEDO 26--Ohio HC Solich got his team back on track last week as both star RB Kalvin McRae (170 YR) and QB Brad Bower (232 YP, 3 TD passes) turned in their finest performances of the season in 48-point output vs. EMU. The Bobcat OL looked much more efficient, allowing only 1 sack and opening holes for McRae. Injured Toledo "D" continues to implode (34 points vs. Liberty, 43 at Buffalo; 43 ppg TY).

(05-Toledo -10' 30-21 04-TOLEDO -13' 31-13...SR: Toledo 29-19-1)

*Texas 52 - BAYLOR 16--Last week's 56-3 UT outpouring at Iowa State a bad omen for Baylor, which has lost last four at Waco to Longhorns by a combined 229-10 count! With new talent on Texas "D" showing signs of jelling behind DTs Okam & Lokey, it's hard to see unbalanced Bear offense (111th rushing) offering relief for beleaguered defense.

(06-TEXAS 63-Bay. 31...T.22-17 T.37/162 B.11/27 B.26/48/1/320 T.21/32/1/275 T.0 B.4)

(06-TEXAS -27 63-31 05-Texas -29 62-0 04-TEXAS -38 44-14...SR: Texas 70-22-4)

*OKLAHOMA STATE 31 - Kansas State 22--Credit K-State's Ron Prince for developing fine STs (11 TDs in L1+Ys) and a resourceful offense (e.g., TDs on reverses, RB passes). But he admits the Wildcat defense is neither especially big, nor fast, nor deep. So the versatile OSU offense--benefiting from the change to QB Zac Robinson five games ago--should capture the day. RB Savage (212 YR at Nebraska) & 6-4 WR Bowman (44 recs.) could dominate.

(06-KSU 31-Osu 27...O.19-14 O.41/193 K.36/180 K.10/15/0/177 O.14/22/1/138 K.0 O.0)

(06-KANSAS STATE +2' 31-27...SR: Oklahoma State 33-22)

*Cincinnati 37 - PITTSBURGH 19--Bearcats' bubble finally burst last week in home loss to Louisville. But count on energetic HC Kelly to get Cincy quickly back in win column. His sr. QB Mauk has substantial experience & mobility edges over Pitt's touted but still-learning true frosh counterpart Bostick. And the attacking Bearcat defense makes a lot more plays than passive Panther stop unit (just 2 takeaways last 4 games).

(06-Pitt 33-CINCY 15...C.16-13 P.35/90 C.30/35 P.11/21/0/267 C.25/40/2/221 P.3 C.1)

(06-Pitt -7' 33-15 05-PITT -13 38-20...SR: Pittsburgh 6-0)

*ILLINOIS 34 - Michigan 27--Will jump back on Illinois bandwagon now that Illini return home to Champaign-Urbana, where they've already handled Penn State & Wisconsin in '07. Key Michigan offensive cog RB Hart (and his backup) might not be 100% due to ankle injuries suffered vs. Purdue, and Wolverine offensive outburst shouldn't mask fact that Michigan lacks a top-25 defense. In speedy Juice Williams & Eddie McGee, Illini has type of escapability at QB that gives Wolverine "D" problems. (04-Mic. -18' 30-19...SR: Mic. 65-21-2)

*NEW MEXICO STATE 28 - Idaho 23--Recommend treading lightly, as both starting QBs banged-up (see Special Ticker). But would give nod to more competitive Idaho squad that boasts the premier rusher in elusive 5-8 RS frosh D. Jackson (786 YR, 5.6 ypc). Note, Vandals have covered 5 straight in series, while Aggies have defeated an FBS squad by more than a TD just once since Nov. '04.

(06-IDAHO 28-Nmsu 20...I.23-15 I.42/151 N.17/31 N.25/41/2/342 I.19/27/1/298 I.0 N.0)

(06-IDAHO -1 28-20 05-Idaho +5' 38-37 (OT)...SR: Idaho 10-3)

*LSU 20 - Auburn 16--Sure, revenge-minded LSU in doubly-angry mood after dropping from coveted but hard-to-maintain No. 1 spot. But still suggest "taking" with coming Auburn (4 straight wins & covers), which has thrived in this role (see Looking For An Angle). Without a fully healthy WR Doucet, doubt somewhat-hampered LSU QB Flynn (high ankle sprain) makes many big plays vs. fast, deep Auburn stop unit (16 ppg, 279 ypg). LSU's loaded "D" eager to atone for Kentucky performance, but Auburn's tough, savvy field general Cox & steady RBs Tate & Lester maintain enough ball control for another low-scoring series defensive struggle.

(06-AUBURN 7-Lsu 3...L.16-13 A.38/72 L.23/42 L.20/37/0/269 A.11/20/1/110 A.0 L.0)

(06-AUBURN -3' 7-3 05-LSU -6 20-17 (OT) 04-AUBURN -1' 10-9...SR: LSU 21-19-1)

*New Mexico 33 - SAN DIEGO STATE 17--Although you don't hear Stan Verrett or Scott Van Pelt talking much about New Mexico on ESPN SportsCenter, Lobos' growing prowess no secret in MWC. And Rocky Long's unorthodox 3-3-5 defense has created all sorts of problems for bumbling SDSU in recent years (UNM 6 straight series wins and covers). Poor-tackling Aztec "D" still springing leaks fore (5.0 ypc) and aft (304 ypg thru air!).

(06-N. MEX. 41-Sdsu 14...S.25-14 N.32/214 S.34/104 S.27/49/3/327 N.9/20/0/87 N.0 S.1)

(06-UNM -10' 41-14 05-Unm +3 47-24 04-UNM -5 19-9...SR: San Diego State 20-13)

*UNLV 23 - Colorado St. 16--Pick the spot where snakebit CSU breaks debilitating 13-game losing streak? Not yet, as physical UNLV front seven usually tough vs. the run. However, will note that Rams last win coincidentally was vs. Rebs more than a year ago (October 7, 2006)!

(06-Colo. St. 28-UNLV 7...C.23-14 C.43/130 U.22/52 C.23/28/0/257 U.19/38/1/198 C.1 U.0)

(06-CSU -17 28-7 05-Csu -15 31-27 04-CSU -6' 45-10...SR: Colorado State 10-4-1)

ADDED GAMES

TROY 47 - North Texas 22--Doubt UNT catches the same breaks (a pair of tipped interceptions for scores, and a 99-yard "bumper pool" TD pass from QB Vizza to WR Fitzgerald) it did to score three 1st-H TDs vs. ULM week ago. QB Haugabook & potent Troy spread ready to torch 118th-ranked Mean Green "D" that's been lit up by every capable "O" it has faced.

(06-TROY 14-N. Texas 6...N.12-11 T.39/142 N.35/83 N.11/25/0/147 T.13/22/1/101 T.1 N.0)

(06-TROY -10' 14-6 05-Troy +2 13-10...SR: Troy 3-1)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 32 - Arkansas State 19--With MTSU's dynamic true frosh QB Dasher (410 total yards last week at Memphis!) making all of Santa's reindeer proud, no reason hot Blue Raiders (covered last 3) can't continue curious series dominance over ASU. MTSU has won and covered last 4 meetings, the last 3 by 28 or more! ASU DL doesn't penetrate well (115th in sacks; 118th in tackles for loss), and Indian "D" will have problems containing Dasher.

(06-Mtsu 38-ASU 10...A.20-15 M.37/211 A.45/162 A.14/35/1/146 M.11/14/0/134 M.0 A.0)

(06-Mts -4 38-10 05-MTS -5 45-7 04-MTS -6' 45-17...SR: Middle Tenn. St. 7-1)

*Florida Atlantic 23 - LA.-LAFAYETTE 20--Disturbed by ULL's serious 2nd-H meltdown in 52-21 pummeling at Arkansas State. But don't mind taking extra value with Cajuns, who should get effective option attack (5.7 ypc) going vs. permissive Florida Atlantic front 7 (4.6 ypc). Owls RS soph QB R. Smith (12 TDP, 3 ints.) is on the beam, but Lafayette (11th in rushing in nation) will minimize his chances.

(06-La.-Laf. 6-FLA. ATL. 0...L.11-10 L.37/144 F.26/87 F.18/34/2/150 L.11/21/1/84 L.1 F.2)

(06-Ull -8' 6-0 05-Fau +5' 28-10...SR: EVEN 1-1)

*LA.-MONROE 30 - Florida Intl. 10--Following bizarre 31-21 upset loss vs. North Texas (Mean Green intercepted 2 tipped passes for TDs & had 99-yd. TD pass before H!), expect UL Monroe to bounce back vs. depressed FIU squad riding 18-game losing streak. Warhawks steady RB Dawson (had 100+ YR in 10 straight until last week) regains mojo in friendly Malone Stadium.

(06-La.-Mon. 35-FL.. INTL. 0...L.16-9 L.47/162 F.21/10 F.19/36/1/200 L.15/18/0/184 L.2 F.2)

(06-Ulm P 35-0 05-Fiu +10 31-29 04-Ulm -7' 43-34...SR: La.-Monroe 2-1)

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21

*Southern Miss 28 - MARSHALL 27--Young, rebuilding Marshall defense getting shoved around on regular basis. But even if USM star soph RB Fletcher runs wild, Eagles won't easily distance themselves from Herd squad desperate to notch its first win. Home-field edge in Huntington still meaningful, and sr. QB Morris (1405 YP, 11 TDP, only 2 ints. last 5 games) has enough receivers to go down firing. TV--ESPN

(06-S. MISS 42-Mar. 7...S.23-12 S.44/226 M.31/150 S.14/19/0/135 M.7/14/2/129 S.0 M.2)

(06-USM -7 42-7 05-Usm -7 27-24 (OT)...SR: Southern Miss 2-0)

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

OHIO STATE by 28 over Michigan State

SAN JOSE STATE Plus over Fresno State

ILLINOIS by 7 over Michigan

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE by 13 over Arkansas State

posted by phantom

Oct. 15 2007 9:06pm
0 likes

Pointwise

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 3 College Plays Last 5 Weeks 11-4

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

OKLAHOMA STATE over Kansas State RATING: 1 37-20

TEXAS over Baylor RATING: 1 53-13

AUBURN over Lsu RATING: 2 20-23

EAST CAROLINA over No Caro State RATING: 3 37-17

OKLAHOMA over Iowa State RATING: 4 48-10

NEW MEXICO over San Diego State RATING: 4 34-13

HOUSTON over Uab RATING: 5 41-17

TENNESSEE over Alabama RATING: 5 24-19

NFL KEY RELEASES

NEW ENGLAND over Miami RATING: 2 38-13

ATLANTA over New Orleans RATING: 3 18-19

DENVER over Pittsburgh RATING: 4 22-20

JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis RATING: 4 26-23

BUFFALO over Baltimore RATING: 5 17-16

posted by phantom

Oct. 16 2007 5:49pm
0 likes

Marc L angle of the week

ROTTEN RUSH DEFENSES

PLAY AGAINST a college home favorite from Game Six on out of the season who is off a loss and allows more than 200 rushing YPG vs. a winning opponent who allows < 200 rushing YP.

ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 9-27-1

Play Against: Nebraska

posted by phantom

Oct. 16 2007 5:49pm
0 likes

TOM SCOTTâ€™S ANGLE OF THE WEEK

Posted: 2007-10-16

Last week, I posted this angle:

PLAY AGAINST any College team who started the season 5-0, lost Game Six and is playing a .400 or better opponent who failed to cover the spread in its last game.

26 Year ATS = 23-8 for 74%

That angle gave us MICHIGAN minus the points over Purdue and Michigan won easily (48-21).

This week, we extend that angle one week deeper into the season. There arenâ€™t as many plays for obvious reasons but the numbers are very similar and certainly worth noting. We are adding two parameters and subtracting two but the idea is the same. Here is the new angle:

PLAY AGAINST any college team who started the season 6-0, lost and failed to cover in Game Seven and is favored by at least six points today.

Those numbers are 16-4 for 80% since 1980. However, within those numbers, are a pair of pretty subsets. If the Play Against team is home, the angle is 8-1 ATS and, if the Play ON team is off a SUATS win, itâ€™s 6-0.

With both subsets in action, This Weekâ€™s Play is AUBURN plus the points over Lsu.

Marc L stat of the week

Auburn is 18-3 SUATS under Tommy Tuberville versus

an .850 > conference opponent.

posted by phantom

Oct. 16 2007 5:49pm
0 likes

marc l smart box

ON THE ROAD AGAIN

Life on the road in college football is in direct contrast to that at home. Not only are challenges from the opposition much greater but so too is having to adapt to living life out of a suitcase. This is especially true for teams that find themselves on the road more than at home at this stage of the season.

College football teams playing in a combination of their 5th road game in Game Seven of the season often times tire out. Thatâ€™s confirmed by their poor 41-55-1 ATS record in this scenario since 1980. Bowling Green, Florida International and North Texas will be â€˜On The Road Againâ€™ this week. Bring the opponent in off a win in its last game and they dip to 15-31 ATS. North Texas finds itself in the latter role this week.

If these weary travelers allow 21.5 or more points per game on the season, they drop to 8-24 ATS against a foe off a win. Best of all, if the aforementioned traveler is taking on an opponent that owns a win percentage of more than .600, they practically drop dead, going 2-13 ATS! North Texas will test those waters this week.

Letâ€™s see how our tired travelers fare this week. Our guess is they will need to put in for a wakeup callâ€¦

posted by phantom

Oct. 16 2007 5:50pm
0 likes

marc l soft sevens

6-0 nfl favorites in game seven are 3-13-1 ATS if they scored mored than 28 points in their last game. Play against NE

posted by phantom

Oct. 16 2007 5:50pm
0 likes

WEEK 7 VEGAS REPORT

Oddsmakers canâ€™t make a pointspread high enough on the New England Patriots.

â€œItâ€™s almost an unwritten rule that you canâ€™t make an NFL road team more than 14 no matter what the difference is in the two teams,â€ said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

So LVSC sent out an opening number in the New England-Miami game of Patriots minus 14. By Monday morning, the Patriots were up 16 Â½ and even 17 at some places.

â€œTheyâ€™re just re-writing all the odds,â€ Seba said.

Not only have the Patriots won all six of their games, but theyâ€™ve easily covered the pointspread in each contest. Their average victory margin is 23 points.

Following their smashing 48-27 road victory against Dallas this past Sunday, the Patriotsâ€™ odds of winning the Super Bowl stood at even money. Bookmakers raised the AFCâ€™s odds of taking the Super Bowl to minus 10 Â½ from 8 Â½.

Itâ€™s just mid-October, but already the Patriots look like a cinch to reach the Super Bowl as long as Tom Brady doesnâ€™t get hurt.

The only question seems to be will New England go undefeated along the way?

According to a â€˜yes/noâ€™ prop at the Las Vegas Hilton, the Patriots are minus $7.00 to lose at least once during the regular season and plus $5.00 to go undefeated.

â€œItâ€™s unbelievable to only get 5-1, but if you make the Patriots any higher people will take it,â€ Seba said.

The Patriotsâ€™ biggest test comes on Nov. 4 when they play Indianapolis on the road. The problem with taking the Patriots to go unbeaten is they could rest their starters the last couple of weeks if home-field advantage already is clinched. Thatâ€™s usually the case if a team opens 13-0.

New England plays three home games in a row during December â€“ Steelers, Jets and Dolphins â€“ before closing on the road against the Giants.

Seba said Belichick, unlike the Coltsâ€™ Tony Dungy, just might be egotistical enough to try to go 16-0. The Patriots donâ€™t seem to experience letdown like regular mortals.

Even though they whipped Dallas in the seasonâ€™s most hyped game, the Patriots probably wonâ€™t have a letdown against the winless Dolphins. Thatâ€™s because Miami upset them last year at home, 21-0. The Dolphins held the Patriots to just 189 yards of offense.

That doesnâ€™t seem possible this season even though the Dolphins have defeated the Patriots seven of the last nine times in South Florida. Miamiâ€™s overrated defense is yielding an average of 33.2 points in the last five games.

The Patriots-Dolphins total of 51 is the highest â€˜over/underâ€™ on the Week 7 board.

The lowest is Baltimore-Buffalo at 35. LVSC sent out an opening side number of Ravens minus 4 Â½. The line is a solid three. This surprises Seba.

â€œWhen you think about Baltimore playing Buffalo, you think thereâ€™s a huge difference,â€ he said. â€œBut I guess the Dallas game gave Buffalo a good resume. It looks like the Ravens might have to go with (Kyle) Boller again since (Steve) McNair is still banged-up.

â€œBut is Buffalo going to do something against the Ravens defense? I doubt it.â€

Denver is a home underdog for the first time since the opening game of the 2002 season when it hosted St. Louis, then coming off a Super Bowl appearance. Pittsburgh is minus 3 Â½ versus the Broncos.

â€œI wouldnâ€™t feel comfortable laying more than a field goal with Pittsburgh on the road,â€ Seba said. â€œBut itâ€™s amazing the Broncos are playing so bad at home. Theyâ€™ve really lost it.â€

The Broncos have covered only one of their last 12 home games. They also are 1-9 against the spread as a home favorite.

It appears the oddsmakers have set a good line on the Monday night matchup of Indianapolis at Jacksonville. The Colts are three-point road favorites.

The Colts have won an NFL-high 10 consecutive games. They are averaging 32.8 points and expect to have back injured Marvin Harrison and Joseph Addai. Jacksonville has won four in a row.

The Jaguars steamrolled the Colts, 44-17, at home last season. The Jaguars rushed for 375 yards, the second highest single-game rushing total in NFL history.

â€œI canâ€™t argue with three,â€ Seba said about the pointspread. â€œEspecially with the way Jacksonville has been playing.â€

posted by phantom

Oct. 16 2007 5:50pm
0 likes

Phil Steele Power Sweep

College

4* Houston over UAB 38-17

3* Florida Atlantic over Louisiana-Lft 41-20

3* Clemson over C Michigan 44 - 20

2* Oklahoma over Iowa St 51 - 6

2* UCF over Tulsa 49 - 38

2* Penn St over Indiana 34 - 20

Pro

4* Cincinnati over NY Jets 31 - 10

3* Detroit over Tampa Bay 33 - 17

2* New England over Miami 37 - 10

2* Philly over Chicago 34 - 17

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 5:56pm
0 likes

Thursday, October 18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S FLORIDA (6 - 0) at RUTGERS (4 - 2) - 10/18/2007, 7:45 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons

RUTGERS is 1-1 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UTAH (4 - 3) at TCU (4 - 3) - 10/18/2007, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TCU is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

TCU is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

TCU is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

UTAH is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

UTAH is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

UTAH is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

TCU is 1-1 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons

TCU is 1-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, October 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NORTHWESTERN (4 - 3) vs. E MICHIGAN (2 - 5) - 10/19/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

E MICHIGAN is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

E MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons

NORTHWESTERN is 1-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOUISVILLE (4 - 3) at CONNECTICUT (5 - 1) - 10/19/2007, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

CONNECTICUT is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons

LOUISVILLE is 2-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, October 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (3 - 4) at SYRACUSE (1 - 6) - 10/20/2007, 4:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

SYRACUSE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against MAC opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

SYRACUSE is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

SYRACUSE is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI OHIO (4 - 3) at TEMPLE (2 - 5) - 10/20/2007, 12:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons

MIAMI OHIO is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MISSISSIPPI ST (4 - 3) at W VIRGINIA (5 - 1) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

W VIRGINIA is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons

W VIRGINIA is 1-0 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PENN ST (5 - 2) at INDIANA (5 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 12:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C MICHIGAN (4 - 3) at CLEMSON (4 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 12:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

C MICHIGAN is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

C MICHIGAN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

C MICHIGAN is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

C MICHIGAN is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

C MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

C MICHIGAN is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

CLEMSON is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N ILLINOIS (1 - 6) at WISCONSIN (5 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 12:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS (3 - 3) at OLE MISS (2 - 5) - 10/20/2007, 2:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

ARKANSAS is 2-0 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons

ARKANSAS is 2-0 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VANDERBILT (3 - 3) at S CAROLINA (6 - 1) - 10/20/2007, 12:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

S CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

S CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

S CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

S CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

S CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons

S CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WAKE FOREST (4 - 2) at NAVY (4 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 1:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

WAKE FOREST is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

NAVY is 95-64 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all games since 1992.

NAVY is 90-59 ATS (+25.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

NAVY is 95-64 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

NAVY is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

NAVY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against ACC opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARMY (3 - 4) at GEORGIA TECH (4 - 3) - 10/20/2007, 12:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WYOMING (4 - 2) at AIR FORCE (5 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 2:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

WYOMING is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

AIR FORCE is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

AIR FORCE is 1-1 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons

AIR FORCE is 1-1 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALL ST (4 - 3) at W MICHIGAN (3 - 4) - 10/20/2007, 2:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

BALL ST is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

BALL ST is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

BALL ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

BALL ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

W MICHIGAN is 1-1 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons

W MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS (6 - 0) at COLORADO (4 - 3) - 10/20/2007, 3:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

KANSAS is 51-77 ATS (-33.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

KANSAS is 41-74 ATS (-40.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

COLORADO is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

COLORADO is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons

COLORADO is 1-1 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (2 - 4) at RICE (1 - 5) - 10/20/2007, 3:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

RICE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

RICE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

RICE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.

RICE is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TULANE (1 - 5) at SMU (1 - 5) - 10/20/2007, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TULANE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

TULANE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

TULANE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

SMU is 1-1 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons

SMU is 1-1 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEVADA (2 - 4) at UTAH ST (0 - 6) - 10/20/2007, 3:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

UTAH ST is 1-1 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons

NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (4 - 2) at ALABAMA (5 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TENNESSEE is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.

TENNESSEE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

TENNESSEE is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

ALABAMA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

ALABAMA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

ALABAMA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

ALABAMA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

ALABAMA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

ALABAMA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

ALABAMA is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons

ALABAMA is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS A&M (5 - 2) at NEBRASKA (4 - 3) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

NEBRASKA is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

NEBRASKA is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

NEBRASKA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.

NEBRASKA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History

TEXAS A&M is 1-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons

NEBRASKA is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA (6 - 1) at IOWA ST (1 - 6) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

OKLAHOMA is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.

OKLAHOMA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

IOWA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

OKLAHOMA is 1-0 against the spread versus IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons

OKLAHOMA is 1-0 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS TECH (6 - 1) at MISSOURI (5 - 1) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TEXAS TECH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

TEXAS TECH is 71-45 ATS (+21.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

TEXAS TECH is 91-64 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

TEXAS TECH is 43-21 ATS (+19.9 Units) in October games since 1992.

TEXAS TECH is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

MISSOURI is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons

MISSOURI is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CALIFORNIA (5 - 1) at UCLA (4 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

UCLA is 2-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons

UCLA is 1-1 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USC (5 - 1) at NOTRE DAME (1 - 6) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

USC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons.

USC is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

USC is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

NOTRE DAME is 1-1 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons

USC is 2-0 straight up against NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (4 - 3) at FLORIDA ST (4 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

MIAMI is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

FLORIDA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

FLORIDA ST is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OREGON (5 - 1) at WASHINGTON (2 - 4) - 10/20/2007, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

WASHINGTON is 45-69 ATS (-30.9 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

OREGON is 2-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

OREGON is 2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN ST (5 - 2) at OHIO ST (7 - 0) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

MICHIGAN ST is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

MICHIGAN ST is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

OHIO ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.

OHIO ST is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

OHIO ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

OHIO ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

OHIO ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

OHIO ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

OHIO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.

OHIO ST is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

OHIO ST is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

OHIO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons

OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIRGINIA (6 - 1) at MARYLAND (4 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

VIRGINIA is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.

VIRGINIA is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

VIRGINIA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

MARYLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

MARYLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons

MARYLAND is 2-0 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOWLING GREEN (3 - 3) at KENT ST (3 - 4) - 10/20/2007, 4:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

BOWLING GREEN is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

KENT ST is 1-0 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons

KENT ST is 1-1 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TULSA (4 - 2) at UCF (3 - 3) - 10/20/2007, 4:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

TULSA is 1-0 against the spread versus UCF over the last 3 seasons

TULSA is 1-0 straight up against UCF over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NC STATE (1 - 5) at E CAROLINA (4 - 3) - 10/20/2007, 4:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

NC STATE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

NC STATE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

NC STATE is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

NC STATE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

E CAROLINA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

E CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons

E CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STANFORD (2 - 4) at ARIZONA (2 - 5) - 10/20/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

ARIZONA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.

ARIZONA is 29-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

ARIZONA is 48-74 ATS (-33.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

ARIZONA is 30-55 ATS (-30.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

ARIZONA is 24-50 ATS (-31.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

ARIZONA is 30-55 ATS (-30.5 Units) in home games since 1992.

ARIZONA is 30-55 ATS (-30.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons

ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE ST (3 - 4) at FRESNO ST (4 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 5:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

SAN JOSE ST is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

SAN JOSE ST is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

FRESNO ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

FRESNO ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

FRESNO ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

FRESNO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons

FRESNO ST is 1-1 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (3 - 3) at UAB (2 - 4) - 10/20/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

UAB is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA (4 - 2) at KENTUCKY (6 - 1) - 10/20/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

FLORIDA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

KENTUCKY is 2-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons

FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOISE ST (5 - 1) at LOUISIANA TECH (2 - 4) - 10/20/2007, 7:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

BOISE ST is 2-0 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons

BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IOWA (3 - 4) at PURDUE (5 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 12:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

IOWA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

PURDUE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

PURDUE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

IOWA is 2-0 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons

IOWA is 2-0 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OHIO U (3 - 4) at TOLEDO (2 - 5) - 10/20/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

OHIO U is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

TOLEDO is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

TOLEDO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

TOLEDO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

OHIO U is 1-0 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons

TOLEDO is 1-0 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS (5 - 2) at BAYLOR (3 - 4) - 10/20/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

TEXAS is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

TEXAS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

TEXAS is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

BAYLOR is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

BAYLOR is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

BAYLOR is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

BAYLOR is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

BAYLOR is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

TEXAS is 2-0 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons

TEXAS is 2-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS ST (4 - 2) at OKLAHOMA ST (4 - 3) - 10/20/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

KANSAS ST is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

KANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons

KANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (6 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 4) - 10/20/2007, 12:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

CINCINNATI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

CINCINNATI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons

PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN (5 - 2) at ILLINOIS (5 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

ILLINOIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

ILLINOIS is 45-72 ATS (-34.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

ILLINOIS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games since 1992.

ILLINOIS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IDAHO (1 - 6) at NEW MEXICO ST (3 - 4) - 10/20/2007, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

NEW MEXICO ST is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

NEW MEXICO ST is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

NEW MEXICO ST is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

IDAHO is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons

IDAHO is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AUBURN (5 - 2) at LSU (6 - 1) - 10/20/2007, 9:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

LSU is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

AUBURN is 2-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons

LSU is 1-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW MEXICO (4 - 2) at SAN DIEGO ST (2 - 4) - 10/20/2007, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

NEW MEXICO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

NEW MEXICO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

NEW MEXICO is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons

NEW MEXICO is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO ST (0 - 6) at UNLV (2 - 5) - 10/20/2007, 9:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

COLORADO ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

COLORADO ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

COLORADO ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

COLORADO ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

COLORADO ST is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.

COLORADO ST is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in October games since 1992.

UNLV is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History

UNLV is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons

COLORADO ST is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NORTH TEXAS (1 - 5) at TROY (4 - 2) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

TROY is 1-1 against the spread versus NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons

TROY is 2-0 straight up against NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS ST (3 - 3) at MIDDLE TENN ST (2 - 5) - 10/20/2007, 3:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons

MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 straight up against ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLA ATLANTIC (3 - 3) at LA LAFAYETTE (1 - 6) - 10/20/2007, 5:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

FLA ATLANTIC is 2-0 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons

LA LAFAYETTE is 1-1 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons

2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLA INTERNATIONAL (0 - 6) at LA MONROE (1 - 5) - 10/20/2007, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.

FLA INTERNATIONAL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

LA MONROE is 1-1 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons

LA MONROE is 1-1 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons

1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SOUTHERN MISS (3 - 3) at MARSHALL (0 - 6) - 10/21/2007, 8:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History

MARSHALL is 1-1 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons

SOUTHERN MISS is 2-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons

1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 5:57pm
0 likes

Thursday, October 18th

South Florida at Rutgers, 7:45 ET ESPN

South Florida: 17-6 ATS off BB non-conference games

Rutgers: 8-2 Over off BB conference games

Utah at TCU, 8:00 ET VER

Utah: 9-1 Under as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

TCU: 8-1 ATS at home vs. conference opponents

Friday, October 19th

Northwestern at Eastern Michigan, 7:00 ET

Northwestern: 7-0 ATS after allowing 42+ points

Eastern Michigan: 6-20 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Louisville at Connecticut, 8:00 ET ESPN

Louisville: 0-6 ATS away after forcing 3+ turnovers

Connecticut: 10-1 ATS at home off a road loss

Saturday, October 20th

Buffalo at Syracuse, 12:00 ET

Buffalo: 2-9 ATS vs. Big East opponents

Syracuse: 9-1 ATS vs. MAC opponents

Miami OH at Temple, 12:00 ET

Miami OH: 8-2 Under playing on artificial turf

Temple: 5-1 ATS as an underdog

Mississippi State at West Virginia, 12:00 ET

Mississippi State: 1-8 ATS in October

West Virginia: 20-8 ATS off a conference win by 21+ points

Penn State at Indiana, 12:00 ET

Penn State: 3-13 ATS away after allowing 9 points or less

Indiana: 7-0 Over as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

Central Michigan at Clemson, 12:00 ET

Central Michigan: 9-0 ATS in October

Clemson: 9-22 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points

Northern Illinois at Wisconsin, 12:00 ET

Northern Illinois: 9-1 ATS off 3+ losses

Wisconsin: 1-5 ATS this season

Arkansas at Mississippi, 12:30 ET

Arkansas: 1-5 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

Mississippi: 7-1 Under off a loss by 3 points or less

Vanderbilt at South Carolina, 12:30 ET

Vanderbilt: 12-2 Over in the second half of the season

South Carolina: 7-0 ATS off a non-conference game

Wake Forest at Navy, 1:00 ET

Wake Forest: 13-27 ATS as a favorite

Navy: 13-4 ATS off an Over

Army at Georgia Tech, 1:00 ET

Army: 0-6 ATS after allowing 42+ points

Georgia Tech: 6-0 ATS off a road win by 3 points or less

Wyoming at Air Force, 2:00 ET

Wyoming: 1-8 ATS off a conference loss

Air Force: 5-1 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Ball State at Western Michigan, 2:00 ET

Ball State: 8-1 ATS in road games

Western Michigan: 10-2 Over off an Under

Kansas at Colorado, 3:00 ET

Kansas: 8-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less

Colorado: 0-6 ATS off a road game

Memphis at Rice, 3:00 ET

Memphis: 7-1 Over as a road underdog of 7 points or less

Rice: 9-1 ATS off a conference game

Tulane at SMU, 3:00 ET

Tulane: 1-8 ATS vs. conference opponents

SMU: 7-1 Under off a loss by 17+ points

Nevada at Utah State, 3:00 ET

Nevada: 14-4 ATS vs. conference opponents

Utah State: 5-14 ATS off BB ATS wins

Tennessee at Alabama, 3:30 ET

Tennessee: 21-6 ATS away in October

Alabama: 2-13 ATS as a home favorite

Texas A&M at Nebraska, 3:30 ET

Texas A&M: 7-21 ATS as a road underdog

Nebraska: 24-10 ATS at home in October

Oklahoma at Iowa State, 3:30 ET

Oklahoma: 6-16 ATS away after winning 3 of their last 4 games

Iowa State: 6-1 Under off 4+ losses

Texas Tech at Missouri, 3:30 ET

Texas Tech: 0-6 ATS away off a conference win

Missouri: 6-0 ATS after having 325+ passing yards

California at UCLA, 3:30 ET

California: 7-17 ATS off a loss as a favorite

UCLA: 8-1 ATS off a loss

USC at Notre Dame, 3:30 ET

USC: 1-9 ATS in October

Notre Dame: 6-1 Under as as underdog

Miami FL at Florida State, 3:30 ET

Miami FL: 2-8 ATS off a loss

Florida State: 25-9 ATS off BB ATS losses

Oregon at Washington, 3:30 ET

Oregon: 20-7 ATS off BB home games

Washington: 0-6 ATS at home off 3+ conference games

Michigan State at Ohio State, 3:30 ET

Michigan State: 3-14 ATS off a conference game

Ohio State: 15-4 ATS at home off 6+ wins

Virginia at Maryland, 3:30 ET

Virginia: 1-8 ATS away off a win

Maryland: 17-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

Bowling Green at Kent State, 4:00 ET

Bowling Green: 4-13 ATS vs. conference opponents

Kent State: 9-2 Under off BB losses

Tulsa at Central Florida, 4:00 ET

Tulsa: 2-16 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points in BB games

Central Florida: 9-2 Over in October

NC State at East Carolina, 4:30 ET

NC State: 2-8 ATS off a road game

East Carolina: 10-1 ATS off a conference win

Stanford at Arizona, 5:00 ET

Stanford: 9-2 Under as a road underdog

Arizona: 8-20 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

San Jose State at Fresno State, 5:00 ET

San Jose State: 7-1 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Fresno State: 3-10 ATS off an Over

Houston at UAB, 7:00 ET

Houston: 10-2 ATS after having 475+ total yards

UAB: 12-3 Under after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Florida at Kentucky, 7:00 ET

Florida: 0-8 ATS as a road favorite

Kentucky: 5-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

Boise State at Louisiana Tech, 7:00 ET

Boise State: 32-10 ATS off 4+ wins

Louisiana Tech: 11-24 ATS off a conference win

Iowa at Purdue, 7:00 ET

Iowa: 1-9 ATS off a home win

Purdue: 6-1 Under off a conference loss by 10+ points

Ohio U at Toledo, 7:00 ET

Ohio U: 12-25 ATS away vs. conference opponents

Toledo: 16-6 ATS at home off a loss

Texas at Baylor, 7:00 ET

Texas: 26-10 ATS off a road conference win

Baylor: 0-8 ATS off BB conference games

Kansas State at Oklahoma State, 7:00 ET

Kansas State: 29-15 ATS after scoring 42+ points

Oklahoma State: 12-4 Over off BB ATS wins

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 7:00 ET

Cincinnati: 7-0 ATS off an Under

Pittsburgh: 8-31 ATS off a home loss

Michigan at Illinois, 8:00 ET

Michigan: 8-2 ATS in road games

Illinois: 14-28 ATS off an Under

Idaho at New Mexico State, 8:00 ET

Idaho: 6-1 Under off 3+ losses

New Mexico State: 1-9 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less

Auburn at LSU, 8:00 ET

Auburn: 17-7 Under off a road win

LSU: 17-6 ATS off a loss as a favorite

New Mexico at San Diego State, 8:30 ET

New Mexico: 0-8 ATS after allowing 6 points or less

San Diego State: 5-1 ATS off a road conference loss

Colorado State at UNLV, 9:00 ET

Colorado State: 0-9 ATS off BB losses

UNLV: 12-4 Over off BB conference losses

Added Games:

North Texas at Troy, 3:30 ET

North Texas: 1-8 ATS off an ATS win

Troy: 5-1 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss

Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee State, 3:30 ET

Arkansas State: 6-19 ATS off a home win

Mid Tenn State: 6-1 ATS off a win as an underdog

Florida Atlantic at Louisiana Lafayette, 5:00 ET

Florida Atl: 2-8 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

LA Lafayette: 5-1 Under off a combined score of 70+ points

Florida International at Louisiana Monroe, 7:00 ET

Florida Int: 1-8 ATS off 4+ losses

LA Monroe: 5-1 ATS playing on artificial turf

Sunday, October 21st

Southern Miss at Marshall, 8:00 ET ESPN

Southern Miss: 6-1 Over after allowing 14 points or less

Marshall: 6-0 ATS as as home underdog

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 5:58pm
0 likes

College Football Trends

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 18th

(2) South Florida at Rutgers

The Bulls are 6-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season, going OVER the total in their last two games. They are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three road games, including wins at Auburn and West Virginia. South Florida is 7-3 to the UNDER in its last 10 road games, but went OVER the last two. Rutgers is 4-2 SU and 3-2 ATS this year and has gone UNDER the last two games. The Scarlet Knights were 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS at home last season, but are just 3-2 SU and 2-2 ATS this year. South Florida is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS the last two meetings.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 20TH

Michigan State at (1) Ohio State,/b>

The Spartans are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS this year with four straight OVERS. They are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS on the road in '07, but 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference road games. The Buckeyes have lost just once since October 15, 2005 and are 20-6 ATS since, but two of the six ATS losses have come this season. They are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine league home games. Ohio State has won and covered the last four meetings.

(4) Oklahoma at Iowa State

The Sooners are 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS since losing to Texas last year. They are also 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS this season, but have failed to cover their last three games. Oklahoma is 6-2 both SU and ATS in its last eight conference road games. Iowa State are 1-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in '07 and four of the six lined games have gone UNDER the total. The Cyclones are 1-4 both SU and ATS in their last five Big 12 home games. The Sooners have won the last 10 meetings and have covered the last four.

(18) Auburn at (5) LSU

The Tigers are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS this year, but have won and covered their last four. They have also gone UNDER the total in four of their last five games. Auburn is 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS on the road in conference play since the beginning of the '04 season. LSU is 6-1 SU, but 3-4 ATS this year, with two consecutive OVERS. The Tigers are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS at home this year. Auburn is 3-2 both SU and ATS the last five meetings, with two straight covers and the UNDER has been the right call in all five.

Vanderbilt at (6) South Carolina

The Commodores are 3-3 SU and 3-2 ATS this year going 4-0-1 to the UNDER in the five lined games. They are 3-6 SU, but 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine SEC road games. South Carolina is 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS this season, and 4-2 to the UNDER. The Gamecocks are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six conference home games and are 5-0 to the OVER in their last five. They are 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS the last three meetings.

(7) Oregon at Washington

The Ducks are 5-1 both SU and ATS this season with two consecutive UNDERS. They are also 2-0 both SU and ATS on the road. Washington is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in '07, but 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four, 3-1 to the OVER. The Huskies are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six at home and seven of the last eight at home has gone UNDER. Oregon has won and covered the last three meetings with four of the last five going UNDER.

(14) Florida at (8) Kentucky

The Gators are 4-2 SU and 3-2 ATS this year, but have dropped two straight and are just 1-2 ATS in their last three. They are 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 SEC road games. Kentucky is 6-1 SU and 5-1 ATS this season and has gone OVER the total in three of its last four. The Wildcats have won 11 of their last 12 and are 4-0 ATS this season at home. Florida is 5-0 SU, but 0-4-1 ATS the last five meetings.

Miss State at (9) West Virginia

The Bulldogs are 4-3 SU, but 2-4 ATS and have failed to cover their last three. They are 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road. Miss State is 4-4 SU, but 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight road games. West Virginia is 5-1 both SU and ATS this season with three UNDERS in its last four. The Mountaineers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games, 8-3 ATS in the 11 lined contests. Ten of their last 12 home games have gone OVER the total. West Virginia won and covered last season's meeting.

(10) California at UCLA

The Golden Bears are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in '07 and have covered just four of their last 12 games. They are 6-5 SU, but 4-7 ATS in their last 11 on the road. Cal is 5-0-1 to the UNDER in its last six on the road. UCLA is 7-3 both SU and ATS in its last 10 games, 4-2 both SU and ATS this season, and has gone OVER the number in three of its last four. The Bruins are 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 at home. They are 2-2 SU, but 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.

(13) USC at Notre Dame

The Trojans are 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS this year with four straight UNDERS. They are 10-2 SU, but 4-8 ATS in their last 12 on the road. Notre Dame is 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS this season with six UNDERS in the seven games. The Fighting Irish are 5-4 SU, but 2-7 ATS in their last nine at home. USC is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five meetings vs. Notre Dame.

(22) Texas Tech at (15-T) Missouri

The Red Raiders are 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS this season with two straight UNDERS. They are 2-4 both SU and ATS in their last six conference road games and have gone OVER the total in five of their last six road games overall. Missouri is 5-1 SU and 5-0 ATS this year and has gone OVER the total in six of its last seven. The Tigers are 12-1 SU in their last 13 at home and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 lined games in Columbia. Missouri is 2-0 both SU and ATS the last two meetings with two OVERS.

(15-T) Kansas at Colorado

The Jayhawks are 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in '07 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10. They are 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS in their last eight conference road games. Kansas is 6-1-1 to the OVER in its last eight games on the road. Colorado is 4-3 both SU and ATS this season, including 3-1 both SU and ATS at home, with three straight UNDERS. The Buffaloes are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS the last five meetings with four of the last five going OVER.

(19) Texas at Baylor

The Longhorns are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in '07 with five OVERS in their last six games. They are 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS in their last four Big 12 road games. Baylor is 3-4 SU and 2-4 ATS this season, 0-3 both SU and ATS in its last three. The Bears have gone OVER the total in four of its last five. They are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference home games. Texas is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

(20) Tennessee at Alabama

The Volunteers are 4-2 both SU and ATS this season and have gone OVER the total in five of the six. They are 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road. Alabama is 5-2 SU, but 1-5 ATS. The Crimson Tide is 3-1 SU, but 0-3 ATS at home. They are 3-3 SU, but 0-6 ATS in their last six SEC home games. Tennessee is 3-1 SU, but Alabama is 2-1-1 ATS in the last four meetings.

(23) Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

The Bearcats are 6-1 SU and 5-1 ATS this year with two straight UNDERS. They have won four consecutive road games, going 2-2 ATS in the process. Previously, they had won just one of their prior 11. Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in '07 with four consecutive SU defeats and three straight ATS losses. The Panthers have gone OVER the total in their last three games. They are 0-4 both SU and ATS in their last four Big East home contests. Pitt is 6-0 lifetime vs. Cincinnati with two SU and ATS wins the last two seasons. Both games went OVER.

(24) Michigan at Illinois

The Wolverines are 5-2 SU and 3-3 ATS this season and have gone OVER the total in their last two after four straight UNDERS. They are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine on the road with six OVERS in their last eight. Illinois is 5-2 SU and 4-2 ATS this year, 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS at home. The Fighting Illini are 2-0 both SU and ATS in Big Ten play in Champaign this season. Michigan is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last four meetings.

(25) Kansas State at Oklahoma State

The Wildcats are 4-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in '07. They are 2-0 ATS on the road this season, but 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 conference road games. Oklahoma State is 4-3 SU and 4-2 ATS this season and went UNDER the total in the last two games. The Cowboys are 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS at home this year and are 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS the last six games at home in conference play. Kansas State is 2-1 both SU and ATS vs. Oklahoma State the last three meetings.

_________________

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 5:58pm
0 likes

GoldSheet Extra

(Tech Plays 4-0-1 last week) NFL Picks unbeaten last 5 weeks now 22-9-2 ATS since 2006

Army

Notre Dame

Texas

New Mexico

Middle Tennessee

Chicago/Philly OVER (NFL

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 8:28pm
0 likes

SportsReporter

Rec: Navy

Best Bet: Wyoming

SUPER BEST BET: Colorado

Best Bet: Michigan State

Best Bet: Central Florida

Rec: Arizona

Rec: Florida

Rec: Pittsburgh

NFL:

Best Bet: Washington

Best Bet: Dallas

Best Bet: San Francisco

Rec: Cincinnati / NYJ OVER 46

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 8:56pm
0 likes

Marc Lawrence Playbook MidWeek Alert

Arkansas

Texas A&M

Jacksonville (NFL)

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 8:56pm
0 likes

Power Plays 4*'s (45-30-2 ATS 60% on the season)

4* West Virginia

4* Penn State

4* W. Michigan

4* Texas A&M

4* Notre Dame

4* Oregon

4* Ohio State

4* Maryland

4* Texas

4* LSU

4* New Mexico

4* UNLV

4* Troy

4* Middle Tennessee

4* Florida Atlantic

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 8:57pm
0 likes

more trends

Sunday, October 21st

Week 7 Byes: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego

Arizona at Washington, 1:00 EST

Arizona: 3-8 ATS vs. NFC East opponents

Washington: 15-6 Under off a road loss by 3 points or less

Atlanta at New Orleans, 1:00 EST

Atlanta: 11-4 ATS at New Orleans

New Orleans: 0-7 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games

Baltimore at Buffalo, 1:00 EST

Baltimore: 0-6 ATS as a road favorite

Buffalo: 8-1 ATS off BB ATS wins

Minnesota at Dallas, 1:00 EST

Minnesota: 4-13 ATS after allowing 350+ passing yards

Dallas: 18-7 ATS after allowing 35+ points

New England at Miami, 1:00 EST

New England: 11-2 ATS as a road favorite

Miami: 1-10 ATS off a road game

San Francisco at NY Giants, 1:00 EST

San Francisco: 9-18 ATS after allowing 9 points or less

NY Giants: 4-1 ATS vs. NFC West opponents

Tampa Bay at Detroit, 1:00 EST

Tampa Bay: 8-1 Under after allowing 14 points or less

Detroit: 1-5 ATS off BB games allowing 25+ points

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 EST

Tennessee: 14-5 ATS off 3+ games allowing 17 points or less

Houston: 8-2 Over off a division loss

Kansas City at Oakland, 4:05 EST

Kansas City: 20-9 Under vs. conference opponents

Oakland: 3-12 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

NY Jets at Cincinnati, 4:05 EST

NY Jets: 0-6 ATS away in October

Cincinnati: 5-1 Under off a loss as a favorite

Chicago at Philadelphia, 4:15 EST

Chicago: 15-2 Over vs. conference opponents

Philadelphia: 25-11 ATS vs. NFC North opponents

St. Louis at Seattle, 4:15 EST

St. Louis: 15-33 ATS off a non-conference game

Seattle: 8-2 Over in October

Pittsburgh at Denver, 8:15 EST NBC

Pittsburgh: 15-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Denver: 1-10 ATS in home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Monday, October 22nd

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 8:30 EST ESPN

Indianapolis: 6-0 Over off BB wins by 10+ points

Jacksonville: 3-13 ATS off BB ATS wins as a favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Sunday, October 28th

Week 8 Byes: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 8:57pm
0 likes

Winning Points

NFL

****BEST BET

*Buffalo over Baltimore by 16

A makeshift offensive line, a 1-5 ATS mark and bad quarterback play.No,this

isnâ€™t a description of Buffalo, but Baltimore.The Ravensâ€™ offensive line is so

battered that coach Brian Billick was forced to go with three rookies.The

result was Baltimore could manage only one touchdown at home last week

against weak St. Louis.The Ravens have crossed the end zone just twice in

their last three games. Much is made of Buffaloâ€™s quarterback situation

where coach Dick Jauron has a choice between ineffective J.P. Losman and

rookie Trent Edwards. But Baltimoreâ€™s quarterback tandem of injured and

over-the-hill Steve McNair and perennial disappointment Kyle Boller is just

as bad, if not worse.The Ravens have scored two offensive touchdowns and

turned ball over eight times on the road this season.This marks the Ravensâ€™

third away game in four weeks and is on an off-surface for them being artificial

turf. Baltimore doesnâ€™t cover margins as evidenced by their failing to

cover four of the five times theyâ€™ve been favored this year. As a road

favorite, the Ravens are 0-7 ATS the last three years. Neither McNair nor

Boller are accurate passers. Put them behind an inexperienced offensive

line and the potential for trouble is very real. The Bills gave Dallas all it

could handle.They should have won that Monday night matchup.The Bills

have had two weeks to rest and get over that last-second defeat. Buffaloâ€™s

offense had a semblance of rhythm after Edwards took over. If Losman gets

the call, heâ€™ll know heâ€™s playing for his future starting status. Marshawn

Lynch and Lee Evans have talent and big-play ability.The Billsâ€™ defense will

be pumped to stop former teammate Willis McGahee, who expressed great

relief when he left Buffalo. Buffaloâ€™s special teams annually rank among the

best.This season is no exception.

BUFFALO 26-10

***BEST BET

Chicago over *Philadelphia by 11

Donâ€™t count out the Bears yet.Their defense is getting close to full strength.

Brian Griese has upgraded the offense and Devin Hester may be the most

dangerous kick and punt returner of all time. If Nathan Vasher returns, the

Bears have one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFC with Vasher and

Charles Tillman. Lance Briggs, one of the more underrated linebackers, is

back in Chicagoâ€™s lineup. Briggs and middle linebacker Brian Urlacher have

the speed to match up against the Eaglesâ€™ style of attack, which is Donovan

McNabb frequently tossing short passes to tailback Brian Westbrook and

assorted wide receivers. Itâ€™s the Eagles secondary that could be missing key

elements. Philadelphia was able to get past a weak-passing Jets squad last

week despite not having injured cornerback Lito Sheppard and safety Brian

Dawkins.The Bearsâ€™ aerial attack has come alive the last couple of games

with the switch from Rex Grossman to veteran Brian Griese. Hester

remains a game-breaker whether heâ€™s returning kickoffs, punts or as an

extra wide receiver. Cedric Benson has begun to run the ball better for

Chicago, which also has gotten a lift from Greg Olsen.The highly-regarded

rookie tight end had been slowed by an injury, but is now being utilized by

Bears coach Lovie Smith. Olsen has the speed to stretch a defense opening

up passing lanes for Grieseâ€™s wide receiving targets and for Bensonâ€™s inside

thrusts. Except for a 56-point explosion against a vulnerable Lions defense,

the Eagles have struggled to put up points.The Detroit game was the only

time where they scored more than 16 points this season. If you discount

the Lions contest, the Eagles are averaging 11 points.They have been held

in check by Green Bay,Washington and the New York Giants. The Bears

defense certainly ranks with those teams.

CHICAGO 28-17

**PREFERRED

*Denver over Pittsburgh by 8

On paper, itâ€™s tough to go against Pittsburgh.The Steelers entered their bye

ranked first in total defense, yielding 235.6 yards per game, and in scoring

defense allowing only 9.4 points.All four of their victories have been by at

least 21 points. Denver was off last week, but went into its bye off a humiliating

41-3 home loss to San Diego and without having covered a game this

season. But in Shanahan we trust.The Broncos are 12-1 ATS against non-division

foes with rest under Mike Shanahan and 15-4 ATS overall after being

idle. The Broncos suffered a tough injury, losing center Tom Nalen (torn

biceps) for the season. Shanahan has had two weeks, though, to patch up

his offensive line and it looks like he will have star running back Travis

Henry for at least a few more games and should also have dangerous deep

threat wide receiver Javon Walker healthy.The Steelers expect to have their

walking wounded back, too â€“ Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, nose guard

Casey Hampton and safety Troy Polamalu.The feeling here is the Broncos

bounce back at home with their season all but on the line. They have

always been resilient under Shanahan. The only decent team the Steelers

have beaten is Seattle.Denver is a dismal 1-11 ATS at home its last 12 games.

But it has been 37 games since the Broncos last were a home underdog.

DENVER 24-16

New England over *Miami by 4

No,weâ€™re not going that far out to predict a straight-up win by the doubledigit

home underdog Dolphins. We know the Patriots have played six

games and all have been blowout victories. But we do urge caution here

about backing New England. Home underdogs were hitting 64 percent this

season going into last Mondayâ€™s Giants-Falcons game.The Patriots are in a

letdown spot after beating the Cowboys on the road in last Sundayâ€™s marquee

matchup.Thereâ€™s no doubt New England is the best team in football

and Miami possibly the worst.The Patriots are a fantastic 28-10-1 ATS on the

road, while the Dolphins have dropped nine games in a row.Keep in mind,

though, this is the NFL.Tom Brady is just 7-5 lifetime against Miami compared

to 76-20 against other teams. Star defensive end Jason Taylor has

given Brady fits in the past. The Dolphins have defeated the Patriots in

seven of their past nine home games, including last year when they sacked

Brady four times and held him to 78 yards passing.The Dolphins held the

Patriots to 189 yards of offense, shutting them out, 21-0. A healthy Zack

Thomas makes Miamiâ€™s defense competitive. Cleo Lemon is an improvement

on Trent Green and Ronnie Brown has been one of the most productive

backs gaining 741 yards rushing and receiving his past four games.

NEW ENGLAND 31-27

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

****BEST BETFLORIDA over KENTUCKY* by 28

That stunning upset of L.S.U. was a fantastic achievement for Rich Brooks, adding

a nice feather to his cap near the end of his coaching career. The aftermath is

another matter entirely, however. We have written in the past about how difficult

it has been in recent seasons for teams to play well the week after facing L.S.U.,

which has arguably been the most physical team in the nation. Now the physical

issue goes off of the charts because of the three overtime periods, while emotionally

there is also a huge drain. That puts them absolutely in the wrong place at the

wrong time here, as they not only lack the ability to produce their best effort, but

also have to face a Florida team that comes in not only fresh off of last weekâ€™s bye,

but also with a major chip on their shoulder following two straight bitter defeats.

And while Kentucky has been able to sneak up on some favored opponents the past

two seasons that element of surprise is absolutely gone here, particularly with

Urban Meyer and his staff able to scout the Wildcats from their own wide-screen

televisions on Saturday. A mediocre Kentucky defensive front will more than have

its hands full trying to handle Tim Tebow here, who benefits from the bye week

more than anyone else, while Andre Woodson finds the going tough against a

Gator defense that has speed at every position. The first two Meyer vs. Brooks

encounters have been Florida wins by 21 and 19, despite the fact that the Gators

were in flat spots each time; now they are going for the jugular.

FLORIDA 42-14

***BEST BET

CLEMSON* over CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 35

With Central Michigan having won three games in a row, beating the spread by

64.5 points in the process, the oddsmakers have no choice but to create a new

range for this one, particularly with Clemson having fallen out of favor after two

straight outright losses s chalk. That gives us an outstanding situation. As good as

the Chippewas have been in their 3-0 opening to M.A.C. play, we can not forget

those earlier road trips to Kansas and Purdue, when this slow defense was shredded

for 97 points and 1,121 yards. And note that the recent ATS run is hardly a

matter of that defense getting any better â€“ in that stretch Northern Illinois and

Army each rang up their season-highâ€™s in total offense, but Central was fortunate

to pick up a +11 turnover advantage over those three games. Now this trip becomes

more of a nuisance than anything else for first-year mentor Butch Jones; with the

conference title within reach this is hardly the kind of road test his team needs at

this stage of the season, when they are playing for the 8th straight week. And they

are also heading to Death Valley at the wrong time considering the snarling Tigers

that we expect to see this week. With two full weeks to deal with the ugliness of

their loss to Virginia Tech in the last home game they will be of a mind to take our

some frustrations here, and after being shackled against the likes of tough Florida

State, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech rush defenses, that C. J. Spiller/James Davis

RB tandem gets a chance to explode against this class.

CLEMSON 45-10

**PREFERRED

Eastern Mich over Northwestern by 3 (Friday at Detroit)

We cannot put the * next to the Eagles that they would get for a full home field,

but note that this is a short ride from campus, and that there are plenty of alumni

in the Detroit area. As for the extra tickets available for Northwestern backers, they

are not making this trip anyway. And both emotionally and physically there team

may not either. Three weeks ago the Wildcats led Michigan in the fourth quarter

before coming up short. Two weeks ago they won an overtime thriller over

Michigan State in East Lansing. Last week it was a tense double-overtime that they

finally survived to edge past Minnesota. A sequence like that takes a major toll on

this class of program, especially when having a short practice week to regenerate

their bodies, and when facing an opponent that does not motivate them in any

way. The door is wide open for an upset in this one, with the underdog fresher,

more interested, and knowing that the win is attainable after they fell only 14-6 as

+17 on the road vs. Northwestern last year.

EASTERN MICH 30-27

Arkansas over Mississippi* by 17

The fact that the Rebels have played both Florida and Alabama to the hilt here in

Oxford in S.E.C. playing before coming up short helps to provide a short price

range for this one, despite the fact that this might be their toughest style matchup

in league play. The problem is an inexperienced LB corps that lacks size and can

be pushed around by a team that can run it between the tackles, and there just may

not be anyone better in the nation at that part of the game than these Razorbacks,

with the ability to wear defenses down with both Darren McFadden inside and

Felix Jones on the perimeter. Even with the likes of Patrick Willis on defense Ole

Miss was drubbed 38-3 in Fayetteville last year, when Jones returned a kickoff for

a TD and McFadden caught a pass for a 70 yard score. Now the home field is not

enough vs. a Razorback squad that brings an intense focus after that humbling 0-

3 opening in conference play; with only a home gimmee vs. Florida International

up next they bring their â€œAâ€ game this week. ARKANSAS 31-14.

Colorado* over Kansas by 7

Yes, we could make a lot of jokes about Todd Reesing being in the role of Dorothy,

and getting up off the field after being knocked around by the Buffalo defense

carying â€œIt looks like weâ€™re not in Kansas anymoreâ€. And that is the key behind this

one. The Jayhawks have rolled to a 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS opening that is already

commanding respect from the betting public, and with the way that last weekâ€™s line

kept climbing vs. Baylor the oddsmakers are forced into major adjustments here.

Yet the fact remains that this is still a team with only mediocre talent that has been

the beneficiary not only facing weak opponents, but of having five of those games

at home, with the only road outing a short bus trip to Manhattan to face Kansas

State. The latter game was also the only time that they had to play from behind.

Now we have the classic setting for culture shock to set in, also a hostile crowd and

a tough opponent force entirely different situations than they have faced so far, and

late October is the wrong time to learn these lessons.

COLORADO 31-24

Houston over U.A.B.* by 25

After looking like one of the most disheveled programs in the nation at the start of

the season, all of a sudden the Blazers have put together a 4-0 ATS run, which even

includes an outright win in league play vs. Tulane. All that does is create a lower

spread to work with here, in a game in which the Houston offense is capable of

moving the football at will throughout. Just consider that in one of the recent

U.A.B. ATS success the defense was riddled for 695 yards at Tulsa, and that the

Cougars did not get credit for a cover last week despite amassing a stunning 748

yards vs. Rice. The Houston problem has been one that Art Briles feared this season

â€“ new QBâ€™s running his complex scheme were a recipe for turnovers, and the

Cougars are -11 in that category for the season, not winning it in a single game.

But now that offensive huddle has plenty of experience, and faces the class of

defense that is not going to force many miscues. Just take care of the football here

and they end up lining up for a lot of extra points.

HOUSTON 46-21

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 8:58pm
0 likes

Marc Lawrence Trends

College Football 2-Minute Handicap

Thursday, Oct 18

S Florida SERIES: 2-0 L2â€¦

3-0 w/ con revengeâ€¦

4-1 Game Sevenâ€¦

4-1 on Weekdaysâ€¦

5-1 off SU non conf home W

RUTGERS 5-1 bef West Vaâ€¦

4-1 vs undefeated opp (Gm 5>)â€¦

9-3 aft RG vs Syracuseâ€¦

5-2 Game Sevenâ€¦

2-5 H vs conf opp w/ rev

Friday, Oct 19

Utah 5-1 dogs in 1st of BB RGâ€¦

1-4 Game Eightâ€¦

2-3 aft RG vs SD Stâ€¦

1-3 Weekday RGâ€¦

3-8 A vs conf opp w/ revenge

TCU 5-1 off BB RGâ€¦

6-2 H w/ conf revengeâ€¦

1-7 on Weekdaysâ€¦

1-5 H Game Eight

Saturday, Oct 20

Miss St 4-1 A w/ non conf revengeâ€¦

5-2 A Game Eightâ€¦

1-5 aft Tennesseeâ€¦

3-7 bef Kentucky

WEST VIRGINIA 5-0 Game Sevenâ€¦

4-0 H vs non conf oppâ€¦

4-1 vs SEC oppâ€¦

6-2 favs 9 > pts vs non conf opp w/ revenge

Penn St SERIES: 5-0 L5 / 4-0 L4 Aâ€¦

6-1 aft Wisconsinâ€¦

1-5 bef HG vs Ohio Stâ€¦

1-4 Game Eightâ€¦

1-5 as conf RF/RD 3 < pts

INDIANA 5-1 H vs opp off BB SUATS Wâ€¦

0-6 aft Mich Stâ€¦

1-4 Game Eight

Vanderbilt 4-1 A Game Sevenâ€¦

4-1 RDâ€™s > 3 pts w/ conf revengeâ€¦

2-11 aft Georgia

S CAROLINA SERIES: 8-1-1 L10 Hâ€¦

4-1 favs 14 > ptsâ€¦

8-2 as HFâ€™s vs conf opp w/ revengeâ€¦

11-3 bef Tennessee

Kansas 4-1 vs conf opp w/ revengeâ€¦

0-6 Game Sevenâ€¦

1-6 aft Baylorâ€¦

1-4 L5 as conf RFâ€™sâ€¦

3-9 in 1st of BB RG

COLORADO SERIES: 4-1 as dogsâ€¦

7-0 H w/ conf revengeâ€¦

4-1 Game Sevenâ€¦

11-4 L15 as conf HDâ€™sâ€¦

8-3 off BB RGâ€¦

1-4 vs undefeated opp Gm 6 >

Tennessee SERIES: 7-0 L7 Aâ€¦

3-0 aft Miss Stâ€¦

8-1 as conf RF/RD 3 < ptsâ€¦

6-1 A vs conf opp w/ revengeâ€¦

4-1 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦

0-3 Game Seven

ALABAMA 0-3 H Game Eightâ€¦

1-8 HF/HD 3 < ptsâ€¦

1-7 in 1st of BB HGâ€¦

1-5-1 w/ conf revenge

Texas A&M 4-1 aft Texas Techâ€¦

4-1 as conf dogs 7 < ptsâ€¦

9-3 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦

1-5 Game Eightâ€¦

3-9 A w/ conf revenge

NEBRASKA SERIES: 3-0-1 L4â€¦

4-0 bef Texasâ€¦

9-3 bef BB RGâ€¦

3-1 Game Eightâ€¦

1-4 favs in 2nd of BB HGâ€¦

2-6 conf favs 6 < pts

Oklahoma SERIES: 4-0 L4â€¦

6-1 bef Texas A&Mâ€¦

0-3 as conf RFâ€™s 21 > ptsâ€¦

1-4 as DD conf RFâ€™s vs opp w/ revengeâ€¦

2-7 A bef BB HG

IOWA ST 6-2 as HDâ€™s 21 > ptsâ€¦

5-2 H Game Eightâ€¦

0-4 aft Texasâ€¦

2-9 bef Missouri

Texas Tech 6-1 Game Eightâ€¦

0-5 off 3 straight HGâ€¦

2-5 A w. conf revengeâ€¦

3-8 aft HG vs Texas A&M

MISSOURI SERIES: 4-1 L5â€¦

4-0 in 1st of BB HGâ€¦

8-1 as conf HFâ€™s 7 > ptsâ€¦

4-1 H Game Sevenâ€¦

8-2 H vs conf opp w/ revenge

California 6-1 favs < 10 pts vs conf opp w/ revengeâ€¦

5-2 Game Sevenâ€¦

7-3 as conf RFâ€™sâ€¦

2-6 bef RG vs Ariz St

UCLA SERIES: Host 4-1â€¦

4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS L5 as HDâ€™sâ€¦

3-0-1 Game Sevenâ€¦

7-1 H w/ conf revengeâ€¦

3-7 bef Wash St

Usc SERIES: 4-1 L5â€¦

9-1 vs non conf opp w/ revengeâ€¦

4-1 as non conf DD RFâ€™sâ€¦

1-5 aft HG vs Arizonaâ€¦

1-4 A Game Seven

NOTRE DAME 0-5 in 2nd of BB HGâ€¦

1-6 H aft Bost Collâ€¦

1-5 H game Eightâ€¦

2-6 as dogs 6 > pts w/ revengeâ€¦

3-7 bef Navy

Miami-Fla SERIES: 3-1 L4 Aâ€¦

7-3 as conf RDâ€™s 3 > Ptsâ€¦

1-5 Game Eightâ€¦

1-4 vs opp off Weekday gmâ€¦

1-4 A w/ conf revenge

FLORIDA ST 8-2 H Game Sevenâ€¦

0-5 H vs conf opp w/ revengeâ€¦

0-3 aft Wake Forestâ€¦

0-3 H off Weekday gmâ€¦

1-4 as favs 7 < pts

Oregon SERIES: 3-0 L3â€¦

13-3 bef USCâ€¦

1-4 aft HG vs Wash Stâ€¦

2-5 Game Sevenâ€¦

*3-7 as conf RFâ€™s < 10 pts

WASHINGTON 1-4 aft Ariz Stâ€¦

1-3 H Game Sevenâ€¦

1-5 H w/ conf revenge

Michigan St 5-1 dogs off BB HGâ€¦

6-2 dogs in 1st of BB RGâ€¦

3-1 Game Eightâ€¦

1-4 as conf dogs 14 > ptsâ€¦

2-6 aft Indiana

OHIO ST SERIES: 4-0 L4â€¦

4-0 bef Penn Stâ€¦

4-0 off non conf SU w 14 > pts vs conf oppâ€¦

6-1 H vs conf opp w/ revengeâ€¦

13-2 Game Eight

Florida 5-1 favs < 10 pts w/ restâ€¦

8-3 favs aft LSUâ€¦

5-2 A game Sevenâ€¦

0-6 as conf RFâ€™s < 10 ptsâ€¦

2-7 A vs conf opp w/ revenge

KENTUCKY SERIES: 5-0 L5â€¦

4-0 aft LSUâ€¦

5-1 off SU home dog Wâ€¦

7-2 in 2nd of BB HGâ€¦

3-1 Game Eightâ€¦

3-7 as HDâ€™s 8 < pts w/ conf revenge

Iowa SERIES: 3-0 L3â€¦

6-2 RDâ€™s vs conf opp w/ revengeâ€¦

0-3 Game Eightâ€¦

OCT: 1-4 L5 RGâ€¦

3-7 aft Illinois

PURDUE SERIES: 3-1 L4 Hâ€¦

7-3 as conf HFâ€™s 5 > ptsâ€¦

0-4 bef Nâ€™Westernâ€¦

1-7-1 in 1st of BB HGâ€¦

1-5 Game Eightâ€¦

1-4 H w/ conf revenge

Texas SERIES: 5-1 L6 / 4-0 L4 Aâ€¦

5-0 off SU road conf W 17 > ptsâ€¦

6-1 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦

*7-3 A vs conf opp w/ revengeâ€¦

2-5 Game Eight

BAYLOR 0-5 bef Kansas Stâ€¦

1-5 Game Eightâ€¦

1-5 H w/ conf revengeâ€¦

4-13 as DD conf HDâ€™s

Cincinnati 6-1-1 A w/ conf revengeâ€¦

5-1 aft Louisvilleâ€¦

4-1 Game Eightâ€¦

1-10 as conf RFâ€™s 2 > ptsâ€¦

2-6 in 1st of BB RG

PITTSBURGH SERIES: 3-0 L3â€¦

8-1 Game Sevenâ€¦

0-7 aft Navyâ€¦

1-5 off SU L 4 < ptsâ€¦

1-4 bef Louisville

â€¦ 2-6 H off Weekday gm

Michigan SERIES: 3-1 L4â€¦

4-0 Game Eightâ€¦

7-1 bef HG vs Minnesotaâ€¦

5-1 as conf RF/RD 4 < ptsâ€¦

2-6 aft Purdue

ILLINOIS 5-1 dogs in 1st of BB HGâ€¦

1-4 vs conf bef non conf gmâ€¦

1-4 aft RG vs Iowaâ€¦

2-5 H Game Eight

Auburn 8-0 aft Arkansasâ€¦

4-0 in 2nd of BB RGâ€¦

5-1 as RDâ€™s vs conf opp w/ revengeâ€¦

7-1 as conf dogs 7 > ptsâ€¦

0-5 A Game Eight

LSU SERIES: Host 5-2â€¦

5-1 bef Byeâ€¦

5-1 aft Kentuckyâ€¦

0-4 as conf HFâ€™s 14 < ptsâ€¦

2-5 bef Alabama

NFL 2-Minute Handicap

Sunday, Oct 21

Arizona SERIES: 1-3-1 L5 / 1-3 Aâ€¦

1-8 O/U Game Seven

WASHINGTON 5-2 Game Sixâ€¦

1-10 off SU loss vs opp off SU fav loss w/rev

Atlanta 5-0 A off DD SU lossâ€¦

7-1 w/rev vs opp off SU winâ€¦

4-1 div RDâ€™s 7 > ptsâ€¦

6-1 O/U Game Seven

NEW ORLEANS SERIES: 5-1 L6 / 2-18 HFâ€™s â€¦

6-1 Game Sixâ€¦

OCT: 1-9 H vs < .500 div opp

Baltimore 10-0 non div conf favs 5 < ptsâ€¦

4-0 Game Sevenâ€¦

0-4 A bef Steelers

BUFFALO 4-0 non div conf dogs 4 > ptsâ€¦

3-9 Game Sixâ€¦

JAURON: 12-1 non div HD (2-0 this year)

Minnesota SERIES: 5-0 L5 / 5-1 L6 Aâ€¦

6-1 A bef BB HGâ€™sâ€¦

OCT: 2-8 when < .500 dogsâ€¦

2-10 RDâ€™s vs opp off SUATS loss

DALLAS 6-1 Game Sevenâ€¦

OCT: 8-2 H off SUATS lossâ€¦

0-10 HFâ€™s when O/U line is 44 > ptsâ€¦

2-15 H off SU home loss

New England 8-0 w/rev vs div opp off DD SU loss & BB SU lossesâ€¦

6-0 A w/rev off non conf gameâ€¦

OCT: 5-0 vs div opp off BB SU lossesâ€¦

8-1 w/rev vs opp off BB SU lossesâ€¦

14-2 off SU win vs div opp off BB SU lossesâ€¦

2-8 Game Seven

MIAMI 9-1 dogs 6 > ptsâ€¦

7-2 Game Seven

San Francisco 17-4 vs opp off Monday Nightâ€¦

0-5 RDâ€™s w/restâ€¦

4-12 A vs opp off BB SU winsâ€¦

2-6 Game Six

NY GIANTS SERIES: 3-0 L3â€¦

8-2 Game Sevenâ€¦

0-4 favs 3 > pts bef div HGâ€¦

0-4 off BB SU wins vs <. 500 opp w/rev

Tampa Bay OCT: 4-16 vs non div opp off SU lossâ€¦

2-9 O/U Game Seven

DETROIT SERIES: 5-0 L5 / 4-1 L5 Hâ€¦

15-1-1 ATS aft scoring 3 < ptsâ€¦

SU winner 10-1 Game Six

Tennessee 5-0 A vs .500 > opp off SUATS lossâ€¦

4-1-1 A Game Six

HOUSTON SERIES: 1-3 L4 / fav is -16â€¦

4-1 Game Seven

Kansas City SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 4-0 L4 A / Visitor 7-0-1â€¦

1-6 off SU dog win (0-1 this year)

OAKLAND 1-11 favs w/rev off DD SU lossâ€¦

1-11 H vs divâ€¦

1-9 favs off SU loss vs < .500 oppâ€¦

2-8 O/U Game Six

NY Jets 10-0 A bef Billsâ€¦

0-4 RDâ€™s 4 > pts off DD SU lossâ€¦

OCT: 1-8 vs non div opp off BB SU lossesâ€¦

5-0 O/U Game Seven

CINCINNATI 5-0 bef HG vs Steelersâ€¦

0-6 Game Six vs opp off SU lossâ€¦

OCT: 1-8 non div favsâ€¦

1-6 vs AFC East (0-1 this year)

Chicago SERIES: 4-1 L5 Aâ€¦

7-0 vs non div opp off SUATS winâ€¦

SMITH: 7-1 A vs opp off SU win

PHILADELPHIA 5-0 favs 8 < pts off SUATS win vs opp off SU fav lossâ€¦

0-5 H when O/U line < 35 ptsâ€¦

2-6 Game Six vs non div opp

St. Louis SERIES: 4-1 L5 A / dog is 7-1â€¦

OCT: 1-7 A off SUATS loss

SEATTLE 8-0 vs < .500 opp w/rev off DD SU lossâ€¦

8-2 vs div opp off BB SU lossesâ€¦

1-8 if .500 > off SU fav loss vs div oppâ€¦

1-6 Game Seven

Pittsburgh OCT: 13-0 favs w/revâ€¦

51-4 when win SU A off non div oppâ€¦

8-1 Game Six

DENVER 6-1-1 HDâ€™s (0-1 this year)â€¦

12-2 vs opp off SUATS win w/restâ€¦

SHANAHAN: 15-4 w/rest (12-1 non div)

Monday, Oct 22

Indianapolis 7-1 Monday Night favs 2 > ptsâ€¦

9-3 RFâ€™s w/rev (0-2 this year)â€¦

9-2 O/U Game Six

JACKSONVILLE SERIES: 4-1 L5 / 4-1 L5 H...6-0 Aft Texansâ€¦

0-7 off DD SU win vs con opp off BB SU winsâ€¦

1-7 off BB SU wins vs opp off BB SU winsâ€¦

2-12 off HG vs opp off BB SUATS wins

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 8:58pm
0 likes

Early NCAAF line movements: Week 8

10/15/2007 - By: Doc's Sports | Archive

OK, now we can call it a consistent trend. The early week steam moves in college football have gone just 10-16 against the spread over the past four weeks. Thatâ€™s a 62.5-percent clip if you had been fading the â€œsharpâ€ early action. Of course, this trend is by no means an absolute when you consider it in the context of a Monday-to-Friday movement (the Kansas line moved almost a touchdown and they still won by about 92 points) but if you had simply played against the steepest initial line movements over the past month you would have secured a tidy profit.

Having said that, now watch the early movements go about 5-1 ATS this week. But just for consistencies sake, here are the spreads that have seen the most early week variance:

South Florida at Rutgers (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 18)

Open: Pick

Current: South Florida (-3)

Unfortunately, it looks like the squares are catching up with the South Florida Bulls. The Bulls are now a solid road favorite in a primetime spot against a team that knows a little something about chopping down Goliath. Thursdayâ€™s game could be yet another venue for USF to show that it's for real in front of a suddenly curious national audience. This is also a rematch of one of the best games in the Big East last year - a tough-to-swallow 22-20 Rutgers win. I think this line gets over 4.0 by kickoff, and donâ€™t discount the Scarlet Knightsâ€™ experience in these spots.

Louisville at Connecticut (8 p.m., Friday, Oct. 19)

Open: Pick

Current: Louisville -3.5

Is that a letdown I smell? The Cardinals finally showed a pulse, disrupting the Cincinnati Killing Machine last week with a big rivalry win. Now the same U of L squad that couldnâ€™t stop Middle Tennessee, Syracuse, or Utah is matched up with a UConn team that likes to sling the ball around. You canâ€™t blame everyone for backing the Cardinals, given that they allegedly have Top 10 talent and have won their last three against the Huskies by an average of 20 points, but Louisville didnâ€™t cover in its last trip to Storrs and I donâ€™t know if its defensive issues have really been fixed.

Ball State at Western Michigan (2 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)

Open: Western Michigan -1.5

Current: Ball State -1.5

From a gambling perspective, the Western Michigan Broncos have to be one of the more disappointing teams in the country. They're just 1-5 ATS this year after squeaking by a horrid Northern Illinois squad. Now they're home dogs to a team thatâ€™s covered four of its last five lined games and is coming off a tune-up win over a D-II school. Ball State is just 2-5 ATS as a road favorite, but WMU is just 3-10 ATS as a home dog.

Texas Tech at Missouri (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)

Open: Missouri -6.0

Current: Missouri -3.5

The last three meetings between these two schools have seen an average of 80 points per game, so three or four points certainly donâ€™t seem like that much. These are two of the most explosive offenses in the country and this game should come down to whichever team can limit the turnovers. The Red Raiders are 0-2 in their only two trips to Columbia, having been outscored 48-19 in their previous games there. Also, Tech is just 4-7 SU following its rivalry game with A&M.

Florida at Kentucky (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)

Open: Florida -4.5

Current: Florida -7.0

The Wildcats managed to stun the No. 1 team in the country last weekâ€¦but can they pull off two monumental upsets in one eight-day stretch? Apparently the early action doesnâ€™t think so. The Gators had the benefit of a week off after cracking skulls with LSU and now catch UK in a prime letdown situation. Florida has won 20 straight games in this series and Urban Meyerâ€™s clubs are 21-2 SU with more than a week to prepare.

Ohio at Toledo (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)

Open: Ohio -3.0

Current: Pick

You donâ€™t come into the Glass Bowl and lay points. You just donâ€™t. Toledo is 40-6 straight up in its last 46 home games and is 6-1 ATS as a home dog since 2000. Also, the Rockets have owned this series lately, winning 10 straight. In fact, the Bobcats havenâ€™t won in Toledo since 1967 (0-15). So, as poorly as the Rockets have played they still arenâ€™t bad enough to be getting points at home.

posted by phantom

Oct. 17 2007 8:59pm
0 likes

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

NCAA

5* Texas Tech over Missouri by 10

4* Michigan over Illinois by 14

3* Tennessee over Alabama by 10

UPSET OF WEEK: Auburn over LSU by 1

NFL

5* Denver over Pittsburgh by 10

4* Tampa Bay over Detroit by 11

3* Kansas City over Oakland by 8

TOTALS

5* Over Tennessee-Houston

4* Under Chicago-Philadelphia

3* Under Kansas City-Oakland

posted by phantom

Oct. 18 2007 10:18pm
0 likes

The Max

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KEVIN Oâ€™NEILLâ€™S

THE MAX

The Maximum Profit Football Weekly

â€¢ Volume 8 Issue 9 October 18-22, 2007 â€¢

NEW GUYS KEEP LAST WEEKâ€™S MAX RESULTS

ALMOST SEMI-RESPECTABLE

My Horrid Max Week: With Matty going 2-0, Erik 1-0-1, and Dave 1-1, the Max stumbled to a 4-7-1

mark. Yep, I went 0-6 with my selections. My Max selections have been very poor this year. It is a bit

puzzling, as over the years the Max has done pretty well. One reason that I brought in Dave a couple of

years ago and Matty and Erik this year was to enable myself to do writeups of greater depth and higher

quality. Ironically, when I put the Max to bed last week, I really thought my writeups overall were some of

the best Iâ€™ve ever done. I really thought I had dug somewhat deep to find some good information, make

some good comparisons, etc. But the results hardly bore that out. Iâ€™m not sure why my plays have been

doing so poorly in print. Iâ€™m not having a great phone service year, but a good NFL mark is keeping us out

of negative territory with the games I decide to bet after working on them all week.

In case this is in your mind at all, I do not hold back games in the Max. I never say â€œIâ€™ll use this on the

phones, so I wonâ€™t share it in print.â€ The Max is my best shot on Sunday night and Monday. In fact, 4 of

the 6 selections did, in fact, make it to my phone service card. Adding a couple of decent plays had the

phone service week a little less disastrous. Anyhow, my apologies for the poor performance in the Max so

far. Thereâ€™s a long way to go and while I canâ€™t promise that Iâ€™ll win I can tell you that Iâ€™ll continue to work

enthusiastically on this stuff, and usually positive results flow from consistent hard work.

Next Week: College System Week: All three systems on the back page involve the Patriots/Dolphins

game. One has the Pats, one has the â€˜fins, and one has the total. Technical handicappers frequently find

offsetting information in the same game. It is just part of the process. But it makes for a dull back page. I

looked back and weâ€™ve had a lot of NFL systems on that page. So next week Iâ€™ll ask the contributors for

college systems. Weâ€™ll call it College System Week.

Midweek Pushes, Daveâ€™s Turn: Matty pushed with the Redskins on the Midweek play Sunday. This week

Dave Fobare will handle the Midweek Phone play on his comp phone at 1-770-649-1078. It will be up by

Wednesday night and stay up through Saturday morning.

Comp Phones: Daveâ€™s comp phone is at 1-770-618-8700 Matty and Erik share a comp line at 1-404-250-

7555. And donâ€™t forget to call Daveâ€™s taped recording at 1-770-618-8700 for the Midweek this week any time

from Wednesday night through Saturday morning.

Copyright 2007. All Rights Reserved.

Published by Strategic Sports Publishing

8343 Roswell Road. #325, Atlanta, Georgia 30350

Phone (770.649.1078) Fax (770.234.5051) Email (kevino@bellsouth.net)

2

SELECTIONS: October 18-22, 2007

College Football

Saturday, October 20th, 2007

Buffalo (+4) over @Syracuse

Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare

Despite the large disparity in class from the Big

East down to the Mid American, Buffalo is the

better team and deserves to be the favorite in

this game. The Bulls have made definite strides

in Turner Gill's second season at the helm. At

3-1 in the MAC East the Bulls are a legit

contender for the division crown and

conference championship game. And if the title

eludes them a bowl-eligible season would still

be a tremendous accomplishment. The Bulls

need three more wins with six games left to

play. At this point every game is meaningful for

Buffalo.

The Bulls are favored by a 51-23 ATS

momentum situation based on their high

offensive output the last two games, a pair of

conference wins over Ohio and Toledo. The

Orangemen have next weekend off before

making a trip to play Pittsburgh on November

3. That upcoming week off makes it hard for a

coaching staff to keep their charges'

concentration, and I have a negative 6-26 ATS

system that applies to Syracuse based on that.

My favorite tech on this game is a negative 76-

129 ATS system that plays against favorites

with poor rushing defenses. That certainly fits

Syracuse; they are giving up 233 yards per

game on the ground at a rate of 5.3 yards per

carry.

About the only motivating factor in Syracuse's

favor has to be the fact that Buffalo occupies

the same recruiting area. And if Syracuse were

the better team I'd be very hesitant about

backing the upstate upstarts. But the Bulls are

the better team. Even after accounting for

schedule strength my stats indicate the Bulls

should be almost a 6-point favorite. Combined

with favorable tech and the drive for a bowl

game the case for Buffalo is one sided. Take

Buffalo plus the points. Buffalo by 3.

Get Your Tech Fix From Dave Fobare: Dave

shares a lot at 1-770-618-8700, so call his free

phone for free info and selections today.

@Clemson (-17) over Central Michigan

Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo

This looks like a great situation for Clemson.

They enter this game off back-to-back losses

and also off a week of rest. Prior to their bye,

Clemson lost at Georgia Tech as a road favorite

and lost to Virginia Tech as a 6-point home

favorite. Thereâ€™s really no shame in losing

those two games because both Techâ€™s have

very good defenses that are awesome against

the run. And the inability to run on those

teams is the reason why Clemson was unable

to get things going on offense. However, that

will all change here as they face the extremely

weak defense of Central Michigan. Clemson

will be able to dominate this game at the line

of scrimmage and will be able to score at will.

Central Michigan allows 35 points per game on

total yardage of 477. They allow 171 yards per

game on the ground on 4.3 yards per rush.

The combination of James Davis and C.J.

Spiller at running back for Clemson has to be

salivating at this match-up. Itâ€™s a huge class

relief going from facing consecutive teams that

allow less than a 100 yards on the ground and

2.5 yards per rush to what theyâ€™ll face in this

game. Over the last 4 years, Central Michigan

has played 7 games on the road vs. non-MAC teams.

Theyâ€™ve lost those games by scores of 52-7, 45-22,

41-17, 45-36, 40-3, 41-10, and 24-7. Those

numbers equate to them being outscored 288-102

for an average final score of 41 to 14.5 for a

difference of 26.5 points per game. And thatâ€™s 10

points greater than the posted spread here.

Clemson has played 8 out of conference home

games over the last 4 years. Theyâ€™ve won all but

one (lost to South Carolina last year), winning those

games by scores of 49-26, 38-10, 54-6, 51-0, 63-9,

37-7, and 35-6. Theyâ€™ve outscored their opponents

317-64 for an average final score of 45.2 to 9.1 for a

difference of 36.1 points per game. So the out of

conference numbers match perfectly, and they tell

us that Clemson hammers lesser competition while

Central Michigan gets drilled when facing better

opponents. Clemson needs a confidence-building

win before getting back into ACC play and they get

the perfect opponent to do just that. Clemson has

no excuse not to absolutely put a beating on Central

Michigan. This game is a complete mismatch so

look for a blowout. Clemson by 24.

3

@Mississippi (+4Â½) over Arkansas

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

Arkansasâ€™ offense is as one-dimensional as it

gets. Starting quarterback Casey Dick has

completed 13 passes or fewer in every game

this season. With Darren McFadden spelled by

the equally impressive Felix Jones, Arkansasâ€™

powerful running game appears to have a big

advantage over an Oleâ€™ Miss run defense that is

no prize, even if the Hog duo combined for

only 85 yards rushing on Saturday. The Rebels

have allowed 5.5 yards per rush or more to

Missouri, Florida, and Georgia. But there is no

Chase Daniel, Tim Tebow, or Matthew Stafford

on Arkansas to keep the Rebs D honest. Casey

Dick is completing 51% of his passes for just

over 6.0 yards per pass attempt with 8 TD

passes and 5 interceptions. In other words, he

is little threat. That will allow Ed Orgeronâ€™s

defensive plan to be to stack the run and try to

slow down the talented, though beat up,

running backs of Arkansas. The Rebs will have

8 or 9 men in the box on nearly every down,

and that wonâ€™t entice Arkansas to change their

game plan, due to the lack of success theyâ€™ve

had in the passing game. McFadden has

rushed for only 23 and 65 yards the past two

years against Oleâ€™ Miss. Theoretically, that

could change if injured Marcus Monk plays, but

Monk played for only a single snap in the loss

to Auburn and his knee looked to be bothering

him. He may redshirt, with a decision to be

made this week.

At higher levels of competition, Arkansasâ€™ onedimensional

offense will hurt them. And while

Oleâ€™ Miss is not among the cream of college

football, the Rebels have some attributes. On

their home field they were in the game very

late against both Florida and Alabama,

enjoying a 420-378 yardage edge in the tight

loss to Alabama Saturday. And this is probably more

of a play against Arkansas as much as anything else.

Houston Nutt is taking a lot of flack and airplanes

towing messages demanding his firing have been

flying over recent home games. There is as much

turmoil in this program as any not located in Lincoln,

Nebraska in the country. And Arkansas three wins

thus far have all been at home against a pair of Sun

Belt teams and a 1-AA entrant. Thatâ€™s all theyâ€™ve

beaten, as they have an 0-3 record in conference

play. They simply donâ€™t have the resume of a team

worthy of being a favorite on the SEC road. Oleâ€™

Miss by 3.

Tulane (+5Â½) over @SMU

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

Tulane has been playing pretty well lately, but

just not winning games. The Green Wave

hung right in there against LSU in the first half,

doing some positive things on both sides of the

ball before the superior talent and depth of

LSU wore them down. Then Tulane thoroughly

outplayed Army on the road (400-271 total

yardage edge) before the Black Knights pulled

out a miracle win after the officials helped the

game get to overtime on the final play. Similar

deal at UAB on Saturday, as Tulane dominated

the flow of the game (504-372 total yardage,

24-15 first downs) and held the Blazers to a

single offensive TD, but penalties, turnovers,

and mistakes (UAB scored on a fumble

recovery and a kickoff return) hurt them.

Tulane has a brilliant running back in Matt

Forte, who is second nationally with an

average of 153 rushing yards per game. He

went for over 200 against UAB, and assuming

that the incensed Coach Bob Toledo coaxes a

less mistake-filled game out of his team, Forte

could put up another big number here.

Trailing 28-0, SMU scored a TD late to make the

final 28-7 in their game against Southern Miss.

Yardage was closer than you would think, but that

was due to the shape of the game, as the Mustangs

were in comeback mode almost all night long. SMU

really struggles defensively. The Mustangs are

allowing 4.7 yards per rush and over 65%

completions, with that inability to stop the run or the

pass a deadly combination. Tulane starting QB

Anthony Sceflo is going to be interspersed with

young Matt Moore, and the competition in practice

should sharpen both and having them both mixed

into the lineup could confuse SMU. The Green Wave

just missed on a lot of potential big plays against

Army and UAB. Theyâ€™ll start to execute better as

they get used to the new systems on both sides of

the ball. And SMU is a good team to improve

against.

These teams both have a single win, but are going

in different directions. Tulane is coming out of their

post-Katrina troubles with a first-year coach and the

players see a future. SMU coach Phil Bennett is in

his sixth year and talk is that there wonâ€™t be a

seventh. That talk filters down to players who are

worried about their futures. Look for the scoreboard

to catch up with the yardage statistics for Tulane as

we take the points with the team with the 95-yards

per game better defense in this one. Tulane by 1.

4

Tennessee (+1) over @Alabama

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

Alabama outlasted Oleâ€™ Miss in Oxford on Saturday,

holding off the Rebels off late to hang on for a 3-

point win in a game where the Tide were outgained

both in passing and rushing. A winâ€™s a win, and

another comeback 4th quarter effort is heartening to

see, as the lack of those was well documented

under former Coach Shula. But after that flawed

win, looking back on the results so far this season,

thereâ€™s an obvious reason that the Alabama job was

considered a challenge for Nick Saban. They arenâ€™t

terribly talented. The signature conference-opening

win against Arkansas is less impressive now that the

Hogs are 0-3 in conference play. And the losses

arenâ€™t terribly notable. Alabama has already lost at

home to Georgia (a team that was a late surge on

Saturday away from suffering their 9th straight SEC

Eastern Division loss), lost on the road to a Florida

State team that is 1-2 in the mediocre ACC, and

remember that they barely survived Houston two

weeks ago. The Tide scored only a single TD in the

final three quarters of that game and gained only

347 yards against a Houston team that allowed 48

points in regulation to horrid Rice this past Saturday

night.

Tennessee was written off by many after losing

early to very good Cal and Florida teams. Both of

those games were on the road, and both clubs put

up big numbers against the Vols. But they didnâ€™t get

many breaks in either game and in the Florida game

fell apart late against a Gator team looking run up

the score. We can see from the past couple of

games that Tennessee is much better now. Against

very sound defenses of Georgia and Mississippi

State, the Vols have gone for 881 yards combined,

outgaining Georgia by 168 yards and Mississippi

State by 132 yards. A big difference is the offensive

line play, which is far superior to what the Vols were

getting earlier in the year. QB Erik Ainge has been

getting major kudos from offensive coordinator

David Cutcliffe. On Saturday Ainge combined with

Lucas Taylor 11 times for 186 yards. In a close 16-

13 home win last year UT outgained Bama 366-243.

There is simply a difference in class level in this one.

The talent of Tennessee is beginning to show

through. Though weâ€™re not Fulmer fans, Cutcliffe

and defensive coordinator Chavis are both solid.

Tennesseeâ€™s freshman kicker has completed 12 of 13

and they have good athletes throughout their special

teams, while Leigh Tiffin is 9 for 19 from 30 yards or

more in his career, and has never tried one from 50

or more. The Vols are an ascendant team who ran

into a couple of buzzsaws early. Weâ€™ll look for them

to get the win against a Bama team that is still

finding their way. Tennessee by 6.

Get Free Plays: Erik Scheponik and Matty Baiungo

offer free plays on a recorded message. They

alternate day by day and have fresh info all week.

Benefit from their work by calling 404-250-7555.

Miami (+6) @Florida State

Selection and analysis by Erik Scheponik

The Hurricanes were without a starting linebacker

(plus 2 of top 6 already gone for the season), and 2

of their top 4 defensive tackles against Georgia Tech

including their best run-stuffer 330 lb. JR. Antonio

Dixon. They then lost another starting DT during

the game, and were down to undersized pass rusher

type Terez McCray, and undersized backups, as DT

is one of the thinner positions on the team this year.

The Yellow Jackets are the one team in the ACC that

you donâ€™t want to be down to a makeshift front 7

against, and they simply wore Miami down in the 2nd

half as Tashard Choice ran for 150 2nd half yards.

behind that big Tech offensive line and the nationâ€™s

best blocking FB Mike Cox. Tech ran 42 plays in the

2nd half to Miamiâ€™s 20, to gut out the close win.

Miami is a work in progress right now, and the effort

was much better than the sleepwalking jobs they

pulled against Duke and the first half of North

Carolina. Randy Shannon is playing different players

each game and how players practice that week will

determine each Saturdayâ€™s depth chart. Because of

the uncertainty in the lineup and holes on defense, I

would not lay points with this team. However, I will

be looking to take if the price is right the rest of the

way, because unlike the â€˜Canes under Coker, they

will not quit playing for Shannon, and will be a

dangerous dog against some big opponents down

the stretch. Todayâ€™s opponent will, of course, bring

out the best in the Canes.

Unlike UM, who basically is looking long-term with

the hire of Shannon, FSU is under a lot of pressure

to win right now. They spent a lot of money on

their new coaching staff, and really havenâ€™t been a

player in the national picture since 2000. They have

looked good at times this season, including a big win

over Alabama at home a couple of weeks back.

They have the better defense in this matchup,

allowing 4.5 yards per play and 17 points per game

compared to 4.9 YPR and 21 PPG for UM. However,

they still have major deficiencies on the offensive

side of the ball. Much like last year, neither QB can

maintain consistent play, and the running game is

nonexistent at 3.2 yards per rush. Their offensive

line was one of the ACCâ€™s worst to begin with, and

injuries have further weakened this unit. They wonâ€™t

be able to pound UMâ€™s weak interior like Georgia

Tech did, and the onus will be on the inconsistent

Lee/and or Weatherford.

The last 4 matchups in this series have not topped

30 points total. Doesnâ€™t that make 6 seem a bit

steep for a team with FSUâ€™s offensive issues? â€˜Noles

6-15 ATS last 21 as a favorite, 4-10 ATS last 14 at

home, and the underdog has covered 8 of 10 in this

series. UM by 1.

5

Florida Atlantic (-7) over Louisiana-Lafayette

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

If pointspreads were based on real estate

valuations Boca Raton-based Florida Atlantic

would be laying 8 TDâ€™s here in Lafayette. But

letâ€™s look at these teams instead. Two weeks

ago against current BCS #2 entrant South

Florida, Florida Atlantic had the ball twice late

in the fourth quarter with the opportunities to

take leads. But it was not to be, as South

Florida pulled away late to win 35-23. It was a

very tight game, as FAU missed three field goals in

the first half and could have staked themselves to a

significant lead early had they not blown those and

a few other opportunities. It was the kind of loss

that is disappointing in that it could have made the

program, and it is the perfect time to have a week

off, as the Owls disappointment can be replaced by

the confidence that can be gained after playing a

fine game against a top-notch opponent. FAU has

now played 4 BCS conference opponents and played

well at times, including a win over Minnesota. Now

they have an opportunity to put all their focus on

Louisiana-Lafayette. And there will be significant

focus here, as last season FAU lost to the Raginâ€™

Cajuns 6-0 at home. With a week off, having just

hung with a top opponent, and now having shutout

revenge, the spot is ideal.

And the opportunity to face off against Louisiana-

Lafayetteâ€™s defense is pretty ideal as well. The

Cajuns have been getting progressively worse,

giving up 527 yards in a win over a lousy North

Texas team a couple of weeks ago and now last

week getting toasted for 681 yards in a 52-17 loss

to Arkansas State. Arkansas State scored on drives

of 71, 74, 84, 62, 82, 64, 79 and 66 yards, and only

one took more than nine plays.

Last season in their games against Troy, North

Texas, and Arkansas State (the three teams they

have already played both last year and this year),

Louisiana-Lafayette gave up a total of 970 yards.

This season against the same three opponents they

have given up 1538 yards. That comparison is

made to show that any matchup advantages that

Lafayette had to slow down FAU last year are gone.

FAU was young and beat up much of last year but

now are a veteran team and Howard

Schnellenberger expects to have every injured

player (other than those who are out for the season)

back in the lineup after the week of rest.

With the rested, better team, looking for the

opportunity to gain revenge and the opportunity to

play into a highly suspect stop unit, weâ€™ll look for

FAU to beat up on a reeling Cajun club. Florida

Atlantic by 14.

NFL

Sunday, October 21st, 2007

Ravens @Bills Under 35

Selection and analysis by Erik Scheponik

The Ravens D may be a step down from the past

couple of seasons, but it is still one of the stronger

stop units in the NFL. They are a very proud bunch

that seems to have made some adjustments to

patch up some early season holes against the pass,

although their last two opponents, St. Louis with

Gus Ferotte, and the 49ers with Trent Dilfer arenâ€™t

much of a litmus test. On the season, they rank in

the top 7 or 8 in just about every single defensive

category, including yards per game (272), and rush

defense (67 YPG on 2.9 yards per rush), so whether

its rookie Trent Edwards or JP Losman under center

for the Bills, they may not want to expect too much

help from Marshawn Lynch and the Bills run game.

Not sure which Ravens QB will get the nod this

week, but neither can get them into the end zone.

The Ravens rank 30th in the league in Red Zone

offense, and have only scored 6 offensive

touchdowns in 6 games this season against a fairly

weak slate of opposing defenses. Matt Stover has

been their primary offensive weapon with an

amazing 16 made field goals. Theyâ€™ll move the ball

against Buffaloâ€™s young defense, but it will again be

more Stover than McGahee or Heap inside the 20 as

Billickâ€™s ego often gets in the way of sound play

calling, and the Ravens o-line is not adept at

grinding out the tough yards. Also, McGaheeâ€™s

strength as a RB is not his vision or the ability to

wiggle through the small holes when things get a

little tighter inside the 20, so itâ€™s not all Billick.

Buffaloâ€™s back 7 looks like it may welcome back 2-3

injured guys off of the bye week which will help

immensely as the defense has been a MASH unit all

season long. They rank dead last in the NFL in

yards allowed at 432 per game, but they do a good

job of bending but not breaking, allowing only 23

PPG. Like last year, they are among the league

leaders in interceptions with 9, and this despite the

fact they havenâ€™t started the same secondary in

consecutive weeks yet due to the injuries. In

games against two of the leagueâ€™s best offenses,

Pittsburgh and Dallas, the Bills were totally

outmanned, yet forced those teams to kick 8 field

goals. Theyâ€™ve also faced the New England

offense, so this Ravensâ€™ bunch will be a huge step

down in firepower. With one dominant defense, and

another that is getting healthier and should do a

good job of forcing field goals, along with two weak

offenses (the Bills rank 30th in PPG and 31st in YPG

on offense), UNDER is the way to go here.

6

@Dolphins (+17) over Patriots

Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare

Who in the world is going to fade a New

England squad that is 6-0 and hasn't won a

game by fewer than 17 points, that just came

off a 21 point win on the road against a team

many felt was the second best in the NFL, and

is facing a winless Miami team that has given

up 31 or more points 4 times in 6 games? I

will.

Let's take a look at Miami first. Over the long

run, NFL teams on extended losing streaks

have been good to bettors. Teams receiving

points and off 5+ losses are 109-70 ATS

provided they didn't lose their most recent

game by more than 10 points. All winless NFL

teams are 127-83 ATS from Game 5 on. NFL

home dogs that allowed more than 40 points

the week before are 67-36 ATS.

Despite a pair of picks thrown against Cleveland last

week, reserve QB Cleo Lemon is a good fit for a

game where the Fins are likely to be behind most of

the way. Lemon has thrown only 4 interceptions in

138 attempts in Miami, and has taken only 8 sacks

in that stretch. That ability to keep possession of the

ball combined with one of the NFL's top rushing

games is what allowed the Dolphins to come back

from a 24-3 first half deficit and make a game of it

in front of a hostile Cleveland crowd.

Despite putting up 48 points on the Cowboys in

Dallas last Sunday, the Patriots could only manage a

measly 75 overland yards on 29 carries. NFL teams

that come off a win despite a weak rushing

performance are due for a bad game, and a

negative 39-67 ATS system applies to the Pats here

based on that premise. Elite NFL teams that come

off a game against another elite team are generally

due for a letdown too, and a negative 59-117 ATS

system based on that principle applies against New

England here.

An oft-repeated handicapping maxim states that the

harder a team is to bet the better bet it is. That

certainly applies to Miami in this spot against the

league's best. The public will be betting New

England; this is the right time to be on the other

side. Take Miami plus the points. Patriots by only

10.

Get Your Tech Fix From Dave Fobare:

Dave shares a lot at 1-770-618-8700, so call

his free phone for free info and selections

today.

49ers (+) @New York Giants

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

One productive NFL strategy is to support bad

teams as they come out of their bye week.

Refreshed by the week off, given a chance to

get healthy and put a little separation from

their earlier problems, such poor clubs often

play their best game of the season. And San

Francisco may be in a position to do just that

here. The return to health angle definitely fits,

and it should help rejuvenate a positively

moribund Niners offense. The absence of tight

end Vernon Davis has been critical, and Davis

is expected to be back here. And the coaching

staff used the off week to put in more plays for

deep threat WR Ashley Lelei. Davis and Lelei

should keep opponents from keying on the run,

which should provide a lot more room for

Frank Gore. And while the Giants pass rush

has had some recent success, particularly

against the Eagles, with the mobile Alex Smith

expected to be back at quarterback for San

Francisco, the Giants will be unable to feast on

him like they did on Donovan McNabb. Jim

Hostler, the Niners offensive coordinator, has

been taking a lot of flack for unimaginative

game plans and heâ€™ll likely use the extra week

to insert a little more creativity into the

proceedings. Letâ€™s remember that this is an

offense that was widely seen as having some

of the best young skill position talent in the

league that was hurt badly by the injuries to

Davis and Smith. And the Niners are pretty

decent on the defensive side of the ball.

While the Niners are in a very positive

scheduling situation, the Giants played on the

road on Monday night, giving them even less

time to prepare than on a usually week. And

the Giants arenâ€™t exactly a young team. Off a

â€œspotlightâ€ game and now facing a team that

does nothing to demand that you pay attention

to them, it is tough to see how the Giants bring

their â€œAâ€ game in this contest here. The home

field edge will be modest, as this is the most

unattractive home game of the season.

Everything shapes up for a flat performance by

the Giants. Points are well worth taking here

with a Niners team that should give a peak

effort against a Giants bunch that would be

perfectly happy to win unimpressively. Giants

by only 4.

7

@Broncos (+3Â½) over Steelers

Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo

If this selection was based on statistical analysis,

then Pittsburgh would be the only side to play. The

Steelers hold every statistical advantage on offense

and defense in this match-up with their defensive

edge being of monumental proportions. But picking

winners against the spread is much more than

breaking down and comparing numbers. There are

a lot more successful strategies that consistently

beat the spread, especially in the NFL. And this

game represents one of those instances where the

stats are tossed from the equation, and instead the

selection is based solely on intangible stuff.

Denver has been an easy fade this year. Their slide

hasnâ€™t been shocking but steeper than expected.

And thatâ€™s especially true when this team is favored.

However, they arenâ€™t favored here but instead are

more than a field goal home underdog. And thatâ€™s

quite significant. Over the last 10 years, the

Broncos have played 88 games at home. Theyâ€™ve

only been a home dog in 3 of those games going 2-

1 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread. Itâ€™s

been 5 years since the last time they were getting

points at home, a streak of 44 consecutive games.

And if the home dog angle isnâ€™t motivation enough,

Denver also enters this off 3 straight losses with the

last being a 41-3 blowout by San Diego. They had

their bye last week, and all they heard was how bad

they stink. But, with this game being nationally

televised on Sunday night, the Broncos will put

everything they have into this game in order to

silence the critics. And giving head coach Mike

Shanahan an extra week to prepare has been deadly

for opposing teams. His teams have gone 14-4

against the spread off a bye, and with the added

circumstances, expect him to have his team ready

for a peak performance.

Pittsburgh also enters off their bye. But unlike the

Broncos, the Steelers have heard how good they are

all week. They shutout the Seahawks 21-0 prior to

it, and they did it without their full compliment of

players. Key players like Hines Ward, Santonio

Holmes, and Casey Hampton missed that game, but

they were still able to win convincingly. New head

coach Tomlin is also faced with a new challenge of

how to handle a bye week, and heâ€™s got a tough

match-up having to face the master of the bye,

coach Shanahan. No question, Pittsburgh is head

and shoulders better than Denver. But remember,

the point spread is the great equalizer. And while

Pittsburgh has the stats, Denver trumps them with

all the intangibles listed above. Broncos by 3.

Get Free Plays: Erik Scheponik and Matty Baiungo

offer free plays on a recorded message. They

alternate day by day and have fresh info all week.

Benefit from their work by calling 404-250-7555.

Monday, October 22nd, 2007

@Jaguars (+3, -120) over Colts

Selection and analysis by Kevin Oâ€™Neill

On our phone service we went against the Colts in

their last game before the bye week hosting Tampa

Bay, and it was a very impressive performance by

an Indianapolis team riddled with injuries. With

Joseph Addai out Kenton Keith (Kenton Keith?) had

a huge game, going for 121 yards on 28 carries. In

Marvin Harrisonâ€™s absence, Reggie Wayne, Dwight

Clark and rookie Anthony Gonzalez had 7 catches

each. Safety Bob Sanders, so important to the Colts

defense, was out as well. It didnâ€™t matter, as the

Colts rolled to a dominant win on yardage of 400-

177. The offensive line played extremely well and

Howard Mudd, the veteran offensive line coach for

Indy, is one of the best in the business. It shows

remarkable depth to lose players of that caliber and

have it not matter. And we didnâ€™t even mention

linebacker Rob Morris, a steady performer who will

be missed. The injured offensive players should all

be back. Morris is done for the year and

importantly, Sanders doesnâ€™t look to be back this

week.

Sanders likely absence helps the Jaguars greatly, as

you saw how critical his run support was during the

playoff run last season. And run support couldnâ€™t be

any more important than it is in this game. The

Jags donâ€™t have great receivers, but have a solid

running game. Even though the past few years

have been tough ones for the Jags, they match up

well against the Colts. Since being placed in the

same division in 2002 the Jaguars are 6-3-1 against

the spread. Last year they split with the Colts.

Early in the season they lost 21-14 in Indy despite

outrushing the Colts 191-63. In the rematch in

Jacksonville the Jags crushed the Colts 44-17,

running wild for 375 yards on the ground. David

Garrard is playing well and the more we see from

Jacksonville and Atlanta, the more it looks like

cutting Leftwich was addition by subtraction, both

on the field and in the locker room.

Jacksonville is a very strong team on the line of

scrimmage. During their 4-game winning streak

theyâ€™ve outgained opponents by over 60 yards in

each game. Theyâ€™ve allowed their five opponents

13, 7, 14, 7, and 17 (Houston scored their only TD

of the game in the last 30 seconds) points. Look for

the Colts to have trouble scoring touchdowns

against this defense, as their red zone TD efficiency

number of 53.2% is low for a team with such a

quality offense. Indianapolis hasnâ€™t put up big

numbers in their first two road games and the Jags

have the profile of a successful home dog in this

one. Jaguars by 3.

8

Systems & Strategies

Note: Frequently the systems that have come in have some contrast with our Max selections.

The systems are created independently of our selections and this will occur from time to time.

In my mind systems are more valuable than trends. A system can be true for the entirety of

either college or pro football. Trends focus on single teams. Take systems with a grain of salt,

but they can prove to be valuable tools in a handicapperâ€™s arsenal. Sometimes they last for a

while. Sometimes they turn around. Always ask yourself, â€œdoes this make sense?â€ when

deciding on the validity of a system. Systems have never been the basis for my handicapping

but others enjoy success for them and this page is a popular feature in the Max.

Each week weâ€™ll have systems and strategies that are true for the entirety of either college

football or the NFL from respected guest handicappers.

NFL System from Dave Fobare, free selections on tape at 770-618-8700

Streak On Over: In the NFL, play the over if the road team is on a 6+ game winning streak.

Pointspread Record Since 1990: 78-50 (60.1%)

This weekâ€™s application: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins over the total

NFL System from Nellyâ€™s Sportsline, http://www.nellysports.com [nellysports.com]">www.nellysports.com, phone 608.283.3132

Chalky Road Favorite: Play on any NFL double-digit road favorite playing its second

consecutive game away from home.

Pointspread Record Since 1980: 15-7, 68%

This weekâ€™s application: New England Patriots

NFL System from Marc Lawrence, http://www.playbook.com [playbook.com]">www.playbook.com, 1.800.321.7777

Soft Sevens: Play against any NFL Game Seven undefeated favorite if they scored more than

points in their last game.

Pointspread Record since 1980: 13-3-1 (81%)

This weekâ€™s application: Miami Dolphins (play against New England Patriots)

Listen Up: Kevin appears on Marc Lawrenceâ€™s radio program (Playbook.com) and Steve Czabanâ€™s

â€œFirst Team on Foxâ€ program on Fox Sports Radio (XM 142) on Friday mornings at 8:10AM.

posted by phantom

Oct. 18 2007 10:19pm
0 likes

Harmon Forecast

Week 7 - Sunday, Oct. 21, 2007

San Francisco 49ers at NY Giants

24 Giants QB Eli Manning passed for 303 yards with a pair of TDs and a pair of interceptions last week. Manning could have similar success against a 49ers defense that lacks of a pass rush. The 49ers are completing fewer than half of their passing attempts, with a team passer rating of 57.7. The 49ers face a Giants defense that has 21 sacks in six games.

16

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

35 New England ran 29 times for 75 yards, which is a measly 2.6 yards per carry. The Patriots should have more success running the ball this week against the Dolphins' 31st-ranked rush defense. Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown rushed for his fourth 100-yard game and will test a Patriots defense that gave up 96 rushing yards on just 14 carries against Dallas.

16

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

21 Texans RB Ahman Green returned to the lineup last week, but only rushed for 44 yards on 16 carries. Green faces a Titans defense that limited Earnest Graham to 29 yards on 13 carries. The Titans' defense allowed Bucs QB Jeff Garcia to throw for 274 yards and post a 103.4 passer rating. The Titans' defense could take advantage of Texans QB Matt Schaub, who is consistently turning the ball over.

19

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

17 Last week, Ravens RB Willis McGahee didn't get much running room behind a young offensive line and averaged 2.4 yards a carry. McGahee could have more success against the Bills' defense, which ranks 25th against the run. The Bills rank 31st in the league in passing yards per game with 128.4 and face a Ravens defense that set a team-record of five interceptions last week.

16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

24 The Lions haven't run the ball consistently and could struggle against a Bucs defense that held LenDale White to 64 yards on 25 carries. Tampa Bay lost Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman on consecutive weeks. Buccaneers RB Earnest Graham will get his second start of the season and hopes to improve after rushing for 29 yards on 13 carries.

20

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

24 Drew Brees completed 25 of 36 passes last week for 246 yards and two touchdowns and faces a Falcons defense that put very little pressure on Eli Manning, who passed for 303 yards and two touchdowns. Atlanta surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time last week and faces a Saints defense that held Shaun Alexander to 35 yards on 14 attempts.

16

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins

24 Redskins QB Jason Campbell sparkled before halftime last week, but faltered when TE Chris Cooley was asked to block following the injuries to C Casey Rabach and RT Todd Wade. The Cardinals recently acquired QB Tim Rattay, who hopes to rebound after a shaky start that included three interceptions.

17

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

19 The Raiders were the NFL's top rushing team, but that changed last week after rushing for just 53 yards on 23 carries. Oakland faces a Chiefs defense that held the Bengals to jut 78 rushing yards. Chiefs QB Damon Huard, who posted a strong 112.1 rating last week, faces a tough Raiders defense that put pressure on QB Philip Rivers and forced him into a 66-yard interception return for a touchdown.

17

NY Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

28 The Bengals have not passed 84 rushing yards for the third game in a row. That could change against a Jets defense that was gashed by Philadelphia for 151 rushing yards. Jets RB Thomas Jones broke loose for 130 yards on 24 carries last week and should have similar success against a Bengals defense that allowed Larry Johnson to rush for over 100 yards in the first half.

19

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks

27 Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck passed for 362 yards with a 93.4 rating, but faces a Rams defense that held Kyle Boller to just 184 yards with a passer rating of 63.8. QB Gus Frerotte had a passer rating of 30.6 and was intercepted five times against the Ravens, but faces a Seahawks defense that was hammered by Saints QB Drew Brees, who finished the game with a 106.9 passer rating.

16

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles

24 Eagles RB Brian Westbrook notched his 11th career 100-yard rushing performance and his streak could continue against a Bears defense that allowed Adrian Peterson to run for 224 yards. Bears QB Brian Griese threw for 381 yards and three touchdowns, but faces an Eagles defense that ranks 9th in the league against the pass.

17

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

31 Cowboys QB Tony Romo passed for 199 yards and two touchdowns, but also had an interception. Romo should have better success against a Vikings defense that gave up 381 passing yards and two touchdowns. Adrian Peterson rushed for a team-record 224 yards on 20 carries with three touchdowns, but faces a Cowboys defense that held the Patriots to 75 yards on 29 carries.

19

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

23 The Steelers rank 27th in the NFL in total passing yards. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger faces Champ Bailey and Dre Bly, who have been very good at limiting big plays. Broncos QB Jay Cutler passed for 232 yards with an interception against San Diego, but faces a Steelers defense that ranks No. 2 in yards allowed per pass play.

17

Week 7 - Monday, Oct. 22, 2007

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

24 Colts QB Peyton Manning has passed for 1,319 yards, 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions so far this season and faces a Jaguars defense that gave up 259 passing yards to the Texans, who were without their main wide receiver. The Jaguars ran for a season-high 244 yards last week, but face a Colts defense that has held opposing teams to an average of 105.4 rushing yards through the first five games.

23

posted by phantom

Oct. 18 2007 10:19pm
0 likes

Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)

Gator's NCAA Game of the Week Report

Each week in this section Gator will provide his College Games of the Week which will include his Conference, Steamroller and Underdog PLUS Bonus Selections during the season.

SEC GOW (1-3 -2.3)(Saturday): pass

Big 12 GOW (0-3 -3.3)(Saturday): Texas -25

Big 10 GOW (2-0 +2.00)(Saturday): Illinois +2.5

Steamroller GOW (1-2 -1.2)(Saturday): pass

Underdog GOW (2-1 +0.9)(Saturday): Michigan State +17

Gator's NFL "Tech" Game of the Week

Each week Gator releases his Top "Technical" Game of the Week, in football, basketball and baseball.

NFL Technical Game of the Week Selection (2-4 -2.40):

Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

Technical Set: The Titans are a perfect 13-0 Over when the line is within 3 of pick after playing a road game with a line within 3 of a pick. Titans are 7-0 Over with a line -3 to +3 after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season to date average. Titans are 6-0 Over with a line of -3 to +3 when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road. Texans are 7-0 Over at home when their rushing yards have decreased in each of the last two weeks. Texans are 6-1 Over at home versus division opponents the last three years. Texans are 5-0 Over after facing the Jags. The League is 10-0 Over as a home dog the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season to date average. During the month of October home teams who allowed at least 240 yards rushing in their last game are 7-0 Over. Home favorites off a SU road loss of 20+ points as an underdog of 6 or more are 12-1 Over in their next game. SERIES has seen a 6-2 Over record between these two and 4-0 Over when they play in Houston averaging better than 50 points per game.

Selection: Tennessee / Houston OVER 38.5

Gator's Super System Selections

Each week during the football, basketball and baseball season's we will post our Top Rated System Selections along with the qualifying system.

Game: Kansas vs. Colorado

System: From Game 6 on, play AGAINST a favorite of 3Â½-9 points off a Saturday SU win & ATS win/push scoring 27+ points in its last game, and 3 SU wins before that vs. an opponent off a SU loss, 0-23-1 ATS since 2001.

Selection: Colorado +3.5

Gator's 70% Situational Report

NCAA (Saturday):

Game: Penn State vs. Indiana

"Play Under" NCAA road teams when the total is between 49.5 and 56 off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival now facing an opponent off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more, 27-5 UNDER last 10 years. PLAY: UNDER 53.5

__________________________________________________ ___________

Game: Virginia vs. Maryland

"Play On" NCAA home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win as a home underdog, in weeks 5 through 9, 25-3 ATS since 1992 PLAY: Maryland -4

__________________________________________________ ____

NFL (Sunday):

Game: New England vs. Miami

"Play Over" NFL home teams against the total after 6 or more consecutive losses against an opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins, 35-11 Over since 1983. PLAY: OVER 52

posted by phantom

Oct. 18 2007 10:20pm
0 likes

Peter King's picks and writeups for Week 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup Week 7 Picks Make Your Picks

Sunday 10/21, 1:00pm ET

Preview Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Buffalo Bills (1-4)

Dick Jauron learned this week what a slew of other Buffalo head coaches already knew: The owner, Ralph Wilson, is going to have his say when it comes to major football decisions. The owner likes Trent Edwards -- and believe me, so do many of the Bills' coaches -- and voila! Trent Edwards is now playing over J.P. Losman.

Ravens 23, Bills 17

Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills

The fans say: Ravens (81%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

Baltimore

No injuries to report

Buffalo

No injuries to report

Baltimore at Buffalo Game Preview

Posted: Wednesday October, 2007 09:29PM, Updated: Wednesday October, 2007 09:29PM

Willis McGahee left the Buffalo Bills on less than pleasant terms this offseason. On Sunday, he'll get the chance to prove his doubters wrong when the Baltimore Ravens come to visit.

The teams will meet at Ralph Wilson Stadium for the first time after three matchups in Baltimore, including a 19-7 win by the Ravens in last year's regular-season finale that secured a first round bye. McGahee was on the Bills' sideline that game, but following a March trade, he's flourished with the Ravens (4-2).

The former University of Miami star has rushed for 525 yards this season and is averaging 113.2 yards from scrimmage - he finished last season with Buffalo averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. McGahee rushed for 3,365 yards and 24 touchdowns for Buffalo from 2003-06.

After McGahee was dealt, the Bills (1-4) selected Marshawn Lynch 12th overall, and he has 373 rushing yards to rank second among rookies this season behind Minnesota's Adrian Peterson.

Both the Ravens and the Bills will go with backup quarterbacks on Sunday, making the running games even more essential. After Kyle Boller led Baltimore to a 22-3 win over St. Louis last Sunday in place of the injured Steve McNair, Ravens coach Brian Billick named him the starter for this game.

"I could have tried to play that game; you all wouldn't have bought it and I don't know if would have tricked Buffalo," Billick said. "We kind of went past that by starting Kyle last week, and it was pretty evident we were going to do the same thing this week."

McNair has a groin injury and sore back and the team wants to give him three weeks to recover. Baltimore has a bye next week before facing AFC North-leading Pittsburgh.

"We're confident that (McNair) will be fully healthy for Pittsburgh, and there's no circumstance I can think of that would not have him as our starter," Billick said.

Boller is 2-0 this season filling in for McNair, completing 63.0 percent (51-of-81) of his passes. The former first-round pick has won four of his last five starts.

Buffalo will continue to stick with rookie Trent Edwards, who has gone 1-1 in place of the injured J.P. Losman. Although Losman's sprained left knee has healed, Bills coach Dick Jauron chose to stick with Edwards for now.

"(Edwards) is our starting quarterback this week, and we'll move on from there," Jauron said. "We're just talking about this week. We're not going to talk about anything beyond it, so maybe we can save some time here because that's how I'm going to answer it."

Edwards has completed 76.3 percent (45-of-59) of his passes in his two starts, but the offense sputtered two weeks ago in a crushing 25-24 loss to Dallas. Buffalo forced six turnovers, yet gave up nine points in the final 20 seconds, losing on a last-second field goal for the second time this season.

The Bills had to go through their bye last week with the loss still lingering in their minds. Just like Baltimore, the Bills have injuries at several key positions and are the only team in the NFL starting a rookie quarterback and running back.

"I really believe this will take us a long way this season," Pro Bowl punter Brian Moorman said. "There's nobody in this locker room who has given up. ... Now we have to go out and put a 'W' on the board."

Buffalo is off to a 1-4 start for the third time since 2001 and has a long way to go to try to end a playoff drought that stretches to 1999. A more productive offense would be a start after the team managed only three offensive points in the loss to the Cowboys, despite the defense recording five interceptions for just the second time since 1970.

"We're disappointed in our record," Jauron said. "Obviously, we are where we are. There's not anything we can do about what's happened. But we've got a long schedule in front of us."

Baltimore is 4-2 for the third time in the last four seasons and would love to get another win heading into the bye.

"Notwithstanding what happens in Buffalo, I'm very confident and very excited about what that might mean to have a healthy team going forward - as healthy as we've been since the second play of the opener," Billick said. "We need the bye desperately, physically and emotionally, to rest."

Cornerback Chris McAlister missed Wednesday's practice and is doubtful with a knee injury. Tight end Todd Heap saw limited action in practice. He left during the first half of last Sunday's win with a hamstring injury.

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 1:00pm ET

Preview Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-2)

For Jon Gruden, this year's Bucs are deja vu all over again. Jeff Garcia is Brad Johnson, Jermaine Phillips is John Lynch, and Ronde Barber is Ronde Barber. Most importantly, Monte Kiffin is Monte Kiffin, and the Tampa defense is going to win enough games against respectable teams to catapult the Bucs into the playoffs.

Buccaneers 19, Lions 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Detroit Lions

The fans say: Buccaneers (58%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

Tampa Bay

No injuries to report

Detroit

No injuries to report

Tampa Bay at Detroit Game Preview

Posted: Wednesday October, 2007 08:55PM, Updated: Wednesday October, 2007 08:55PM

A new starting quarterback has helped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers solidify their place in the standings. Now, the NFC South co-leaders are looking to develop a consistent ground game as well.

With new running backs Michael Bennett and Zack Crockett available, the Buccaneers look to move into sole possession of the division lead when they visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday.

Both teams are playing at a much higher level than last season, though the Lions (3-2) are struggling to find consistency. The game also is a reunion of sorts. Rod Marinelli spent 10 years with Tampa Bay as a defensive coach before becoming the Lions head coach last year, and Buccaneers starting quarterback Jeff Garcia was 1-4 in five starts for Detroit in 2005.

Garcia has triggered Tampa Bay's turnaround this season. After beating Tennessee 13-10 last week on Matt Bryant's 43-yard field goal with 11 seconds remaining, the Bucs (4-2) are tied with Carolina atop the NFC South and have already matched last season's win total.

"I try not to compare this team to last year. ... It's not fair to these guys," Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden said. "We've got some key injuries right now that are troublesome and we have to overcome. But we do have enough grit, enough stuff inside our building to rise up, and I know we'll be there (every) Sunday and compete."

Garcia has yet to throw an interception this season and ranks second in the NFC with a 103.6 passer rating behind Carolina's Jake Delhomme, who's out for the season.

"He is a much better quarterback, no disrespect to anyone else we have had here, than we have played with," Gruden said of Garcia, whose current streak of 164 consecutive pass attempts without an interception is the NFL's longest. "He is more athletic, more instinctive, he's quicker, he plays fast, and he has tremendous experience."

The three-time Pro Bowler is the eighth different starting quarterback during Gruden's six seasons in Tampa Bay, but Garcia has flashed the ability that helped him rally the Eagles to the NFC East title last season.

Tampa Bay now needs to develop a ground game and hope Bennett and Crockett will help. The Bucs have rushed for just 47 yards combined in the last two weeks and traded undisclosed draft picks to Kansas City to acquire Bennett before Tuesday's trade deadline. Crockett was signed on Oct. 10 after being cut by Oakland.

The two were added after the Bucs lost Cadillac Williams for the season with a torn knee tendon. Backup Michael Pittman is out two months with an ankle sprain and Earnest Graham has been ineffective.

Detroit had last week off after a disappointing 34-3 loss to Washington on Oct. 7. The Lions also have matched their win total from last season, but have two blowout losses as well - they were routed 56-21 by Philadelphia on Sept. 23

"We haven't leapfrogged to another level because you can't play good one week and get throttled the next," Detroit kicker Jason Hanson said. "But we have put ourselves in a position where we're playing for something, so that should be an incentive.

"Getting throttled two times should tell us: 'You thought you were good? Take another look.' We're still a team that is scratching and clawing."

After scoring an NFL record 34 points in the fourth quarter to rally past Chicago 37-27 on Sept. 30, the Lions fell flat against Washington, managing just 144 yards.

"When you lose before the bye, it seems like you sit around and ponder," Detroit guard Edwin Mulitalo said. "I'm itching to get back and try to get this taste out of our mouth."

The Lions are striving to be more consistent on both sides of the ball. Jon Kitna has thrown for 1,333 yards and Detroit ranks fifth in the NFL in passing. But the ground game has struggled incorporating Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell.

Bell started the first five games, but Jones has been named the starter for Sunday's contest. Jones missed the first two games with a foot injury and had been taking carries away from Bell since returning. Bell downplayed reports of a trade demand, but isn't happy about his reduced role. After rushing for 87 yards and a touchdown in the first game, he hasn't had more than 46 yards in any of the last four games.

Detroit's defense is allowing 31.0 points and 378.6 yards per game, both NFC highs.

Tampa Bay has won four straight and six of the last seven between the teams.

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 1:00pm ET

Preview New England Patriots (6-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-6)

I'm not much of an oddsmaking buff, but has there been a home team in recent NFL history that's a 16-and-a-half-point underdog? Also, a well-deserved shout out to Boston Globe Patriots beat guy Mike Reiss, who had the Patriots stat of the week in his always readable blog the other day: Wes Welker had his 11 catches against Dallas in 37 offensive snaps. Amazing.

Patriots 34, Dolphins 7

New England Patriots

Miami Dolphins

The fans say: Patriots (97%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

New England

No injuries to report

Miami

No injuries to report

New England at Miami Game Preview

Posted: Thursday October, 2007 06:37PM, Updated: Thursday October, 2007 06:37PM

For all their accomplishments during Bill Belichick's eight-year tenure, success in Miami is one of the few things that has eluded the New England Patriots in that time.

Judging by the teams' respective performances this season, Sunday's matchup at Dolphin Stadium doesn't figure to follow that trend.

The Patriots seek the first 7-0 record in franchise history while the lowly Dolphins hope to avoid their first 0-7 start.

Belichick's eight seasons in New England have been highlighted by three Super Bowl titles, a 12-2 postseason record and an 81-37 regular-season mark.

One of the few places the Patriots have struggled is Miami, where they are 2-5 since Belichick became head coach in 2000. New England is 1-13 all-time there during the first two months of the season, and has never scored more than 19 points in an October game in Miami.

The Patriots had their worst performance of the 2006 season in a 21-0 loss at Miami on Dec. 10. Tom Brady threw for 78 yards in that game, fumbled twice and was sacked four times behind an offense that totaled a season-low 189 yards.

Brady is 31-8 in his career as a starter in regular-season division games, with five of those losses coming to the Dolphins. He has passed for more than 200 yards in only one of his last seven meetings with Miami, though he has not thrown for fewer than 230 in any game this season.

"The last time we went down there, we got shut out," Belichick said. "So I hope we can do better than that this time. It will be a big challenge for us ... I don't think we'll have any problem getting ready for that."

History aside, New England will be heavily favored to improve to 7-0, which would surpass the 2004 Super Bowl-winning team which opened 6-0 before losing at Pittsburgh.

In a matchup between the NFL's top offenses, the Patriots proved superior last Sunday in a 48-27 victory at previously unbeaten Dallas.

Brady was outstanding again, throwing for a season-best 388 yards and a career-high five touchdowns. He was at his best with his team facing a second-half deficit for the first time this season, responding with five scoring drives - three for touchdowns.

The 48 points were the most scored by the Patriots since a 50-17 win over Indianapolis on Nov. 18, 1984.

"Any time you win you're doing just fine," Brady said. "It's another step in the process. We have to continue to make improvements."

Brady is the first NFL quarterback to throw at least three TD passes in each of the first six games of a season. He leads the league with 21 touchdown passes, putting him in position to challenge Peyton Manning's league record of 49.

"That's not what this team is about," Brady said. "Individual records are based on opportunities. What I get excited about is team records."

Brady's receivers were kept busy last week as former Dolphin Wes Welker caught 11 passes for a career-high 124 yards and two scores. Donte' Stallworth had seven catches for 124 yards and a TD while Randy Moss turned six receptions into 59 yards with one touchdown.

The news, however, wasn't all good for the Patriots, who lost running back Sammy Morris to a chest injury and tight end Benjamin Watson to a left ankle injury.

Morris, who spent the previous three seasons in Miami, reportedly could miss up to a month with the injury. Losing Morris wouldn't be as big a blow if top running back Laurence Maroney was healthy, but he has missed the last three games with a groin injury.

Neither Morris nor Watson practiced Wednesday while Maroney did, but the second-year back remains unsure if he can return this week.

If both Maroney and Morris are out, nine-year veteran Kevin Faulk would get most of the carries Sunday.

The way Brady and his receivers are working together, the Patriots don't figure to need much of a ground game against the Dolphins, who rank 29th in the league in scoring defense (30.3 ppg).

Miami is allowing opponents to convert 54 percent of their third-down situations, worst in the NFL. New England's offense is fifth in that area, converting 48.5 percent on third down.

A 41-31 loss at Cleveland last Sunday dropped the Dolphins to 0-6 for the second time in franchise history. They also lost their first six games in 2004 before beating St. Louis in Week 7.

Miami, which joins the Rams as the only remaining winless teams, has lost a franchise-record nine straight games over two seasons.

"I don't see how it can get any lower than this," cornerback Will Allen said.

A matchup against what most feel is the league's best team doesn't bode well for the Dolphins.

"You prepare every week to win," coach Cam Cameron said. "When you get to the point where you don't think you can go into a game and win, you better go do something else."

With an obvious eye toward the future, the Dolphins traded receiver Chris Chambers to San Diego on Tuesday for a second-round draft choice in 2008.

The deal will mean more playing time for rookie Ted Ginn Jr., a first-round pick who has only three receptions this season.

There were some positives for the Dolphins to come out of last week's loss. The 31 points and 356 yards were season highs, Ronnie Brown rushed for more than 100 yards for the fourth straight game and quarterback Cleo Lemon threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns in his second NFL start.

That, however, came against the Browns and one of the league's worst defenses. Only Pittsburgh is allowing fewer yards per game than New England (256.7).

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 1:00pm ET

Preview Atlanta Falcons (1-5) at New Orleans Saints (1-4)

What's this? A New Orleans winning streak? For the first time since December? Drew Brees, by the way, won't be the 28th-rated quarterback in the game for much longer, fantasy buffs. Get him while he's cold.

Saints 23, Falcons 9

Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans Saints

The fans say: Saints (93%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

Atlanta

No injuries to report

New Orleans

No injuries to report

Atlanta at New Orleans Game Preview

Posted: Wednesday October, 2007 07:06PM, Updated: Wednesday October, 2007 07:06PM

The New Orleans Saints shocked most of the NFL by coming within one win of the Super Bowl last season. It might be just as surprising if they return to the playoffs.

That goal appeared to be getting out of reach until the Saints finally claimed their first win last week, and they can further show their season is turned around Sunday by beating up on the hapless Atlanta Falcons - who are handing the starting quarterback job over to Byron Leftwich.

A magical 2006 season for New Orleans (1-4) following the devastation of Hurricane Katrina brought Super Bowl aspirations for this year. The Saints won the NFC South with a 10-6 record before losing to Chicago in the NFC championship game.

The magic did not carry over as New Orleans followed that improbable run with an 0-4 start, though the team may have regained its 2006 form with a 28-17 win at Seattle last Sunday. Only the 1992 San Diego Chargers were able to overcome an 0-4 start to make the playoffs, but that team failed to reach the Super Bowl.

"We have the opportunity to do something that's never been done before," said Saints quarterback Drew Brees, who went 25-of-36 for 246 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks. "There's something to be said about that."

Despite the optimism, Saints coach Sean Payton won't even think about making the playoffs. Payton is keeping his focus squarely on the division rival Falcons (1-5), though his team is playing at home and facing one of the NFL's worst offenses.

"I'm not looking at December," Payton said. "I'm looking at this weekend. Our job is to look at Atlanta. It's the only game we can play this weekend. We're not going to play three games this weekend and get back to .500. We only get to play one game ... and that's all we can do."

A big key to the rest of the Saints' season will be having Brees stay on track. Before his outing last week, the Pro Bowler had one touchdown pass and nine interceptions this year. He threw for a career-high 4,118 yards with 26 TDs and 11 picks last year.

The Saints have turned the ball over 13 times this season, tied for sixth-most in the NFL, after having 23 turnovers all of last season, tied for sixth-fewest. However, they only committed one last week, a third-quarter fumble by Reggie Bush - his third of the season after having only two in 2006.

Despite the turnover, the second-year running back is looking to build on a promising performance against the Seahawks as he had a season-high 97 yards on 19 carries and 44 yards on six receptions. He struggled through the first four games with 147 rushing yards and 122 receiving.

The Saints swept the season series with the Falcons last year, including a 23-3 victory on Sept. 25, 2006, in the first game back at the Superdome since Katrina. In the second contest, a 31-13 win in Atlanta, Brees threw for 349 yards and two touchdowns.

New Orleans has not won three in a row over Atlanta since 1992-93.

"We still haven't abandoned what our goal is and that's to get back into the playoffs, and once you get back into the playoffs it doesn't matter what your regular-season record was," Saints center Jeff Faine said.

As bad as New Orleans has been offensively for much of this season, Atlanta has been worse. The Falcons are averaging 13.2 points and 311.3 total yards per game to rank among the worst in the league.

Atlanta could not even reach the red zone on Monday night in a 31-10 loss to the New York Giants.

"Right now you can't be looking at New Orleans or whoever," Falcons wide receiver Joe Horn said after the loss. "It doesn't matter. You have to correct what's going on in your situation. That's what we'll do."

This game marks Horn's return to New Orleans after spending the previous seven seasons there and becoming the second-leading receiver in Saints history, making four Pro Bowls. The 35-year-old Horn should receive a warm reception at the Superdome, having been one of the team's more popular players and becoming a key figure in helping the region recover from Katrina.

Horn signed a four-year, $19 million contract with the Falcons during the offseason but is off to a rough start with his new team, making only 11 receptions for 117 yards and no touchdowns.

Then again, few Falcons have made big contributions offensively. Over the last two weeks, the Falcons have been held to 23 points, 482 yards of offense and 23 first downs. They've scored seven touchdowns through six games, tied for second-fewest in the NFL.

"I'm frustrated. Everybody is frustrated," Falcons coach Bobby Petrino said. "We're going to stay working at it. Our attitude has been OK. ... Eventually it's going to turn."

A change at quarterback may help the Falcons as Petrino has opted to use Leftwich over the struggling Joey Harrington for the remainder of the season.

Harrington has completed only 48.6 percent of his passes for 296 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions for a 48.3 passer rating over the last two games.

Leftwich, signed on Sept. 18 after being released by Jacksonville, has been hampered by a sore right ankle.

"He has a very strong arm," Petrino said. "He throws the ball deep down the field, and he just needs to be able to see it, and I have the confidence that he can put it in there. I think he'll do well."

Leftwich missed 15 games over the previous two seasons with the Jaguars due to a left ankle problem, and in his only appearance for Atlanta, he was 2-of-8 for 28 yards with an interception in an Oct. 7 loss to Tennessee.

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 1:00pm ET

Preview San Francisco 49ers (2-3) at New York Giants (4-2)

You'd like to think this is a gimme for the Giants, but it's not. The New York coaches have a mountain of respect for Mike Nolan and his defensive scheme; the Giants are preparing for blitzes on every down, and from every player on a very active defense. Look for Plaxico Burress to get behind Nate Clements once deep, and for Eli Manning to hang in and hit him before getting blasted.

Giants 23, 49ers 6

San Francisco 49ers

New York Giants

The fans say: Giants (90%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

San Francisco

No injuries to report

New York

No injuries to report

San Francisco at New York Game Preview

Posted: Thursday October, 2007 06:31PM, Updated: Thursday October, 2007 06:31PM

The New York Giants may be the hottest team in the NFC, but they are trying to stay composed and avoid getting too caught up in the excitement. A near-collapse from a year ago is a major reason for this mind-set.

The Giants look to extend their winning streak to five games and continue their push for first place in the NFC East when they host the struggling San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

After opening the season with disappointing losses to East-leading Dallas and NFC North-leading Green Bay, New York (4-2) has recovered to win its last four games.

The Giants defeated Atlanta 31-10 on Monday night, racking up 491 offensive yards - their most since January 2002 - to move within one game of the first-place Cowboys.

"Honestly, I think the reason we're playing so good is because we've still got that 0-2 mentality," middle linebacker Antonio Pierce said. "We went into this game thinking we were the 1-4 team."

While New York is in the midst of the longest winning streak in the NFC, it knows that could all change quickly.

Last season, the Giants won five straight games from Oct. 8-Nov. 5 to own a 6-2 record at the halfway point of the season. However, they managed just two more wins the rest of the way and won a tiebreaker to get the final postseason spot.

New York is taking a game-by-game approach this season, trying to avoid the frustration of a year ago.

"We do have a sign that says: 'Prepare, practice and play as if you lost your last game,'" Giants coach Tom Coughlin said. "I think that mentality kind of says it all. You can never be satisfied.

"There is a very good sense of responsibility. Leadership is doing a good job. There is a solid feeling in the locker room that if we stick together and everybody does their job, we can win."

Eli Manning was 27-of-39 for 303 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons - his highest yard total since a 312-yard performance against Dallas in Week 1 - but threw two interceptions and fumbled once. Manning has thrown for 856 yards during the winning streak, but has the same number of TDs and interceptions in that span (six).

Plaxico Burress is tied with New England's Randy Moss for the NFL lead with eight touchdown receptions, and has at least one in every game. He caught six balls for 97 yards and a score on Monday.

New York's ground attack has also been outstanding the last two weeks, amassing 188 yards and two touchdowns in each of those games. It had averaged 99.3 yards and scored just two total rushing TDs in its first four games.

The Giants' defense has also been getting things turned around. After allowing 97 points in the first 10 quarters of the season, they have yielded just 20 points in the past 14.

While New York has been clicking on both sides of the ball, San Francisco has been spiraling downward.

After averaging 18.5 points in winning their first two games of the season, the 49ers (2-3) have scored a total of 26 points in losing their last three contests.

The 49ers are coming off a much-needed bye week, hoping the extra time will help them solve their offensive woes and allow some of their players to get healthy.

Alex Smith will be back in uniform, but Trent Dilfer will remain San Francisco's starting quarterback for this week. Smith suffered a separated right shoulder on the third play of a 23-3 loss to Seattle on Sept. 30 and missed a 9-7 loss to Baltimore the next week.

Though Smith returned to practice this week and participated in most drills while wearing pads Thursday, Niners coach Mike Nolan wasn't sure the former No. 1 overall pick is ready for game action.

"I'm not certain that the confidence in Alex, or my confidence in watching him, is where it needs to be," Nolan said. "I know he wants to play in the worst way, but I think he understands what I mean."

In the loss to Baltimore with Dilfer starting, San Francisco had just one first down and 38 total yards at halftime before finishing with a season-low 163 yards - the fourth time in five games the team has finished with 194 yards or fewer.

"There's a lot of searching going on," Nolan said. "If it was just one (area), it would be a simple problem. But there have been dropped balls, missed blocks, missed protection calls. It could be scheme. It could be play-calling. It could be the head coach. It could be a lot of things."

Frank Gore rushed for 52 yards on 16 carries against the Ravens, and has been held under 82 yards in each game this season after recording nine 100-yard games a year ago while averaging 105.9 yards a game.

The Niners also were without tight end Vernon Davis (partially torn MCL in his right knee) and left tackle Jonas Jennings (personal reasons) against Baltimore. Both could be back in the lineup for this game.

"We were inconsistent before we had injuries, and we were inconsistent (last week)," Nolan said. "That's what bothers me, and that's why we have to really dig down and find the answers for this thing."

The Giants won 24-6 on Nov. 6, 2005 behind two fourth-quarter touchdown runs from Brandon Jacobs in their last meeting with San Francisco. Manning threw for 251 yards and one TD, as New York snapped a six-game losing streak in the series, including two playoff losses.

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 1:00pm ET

Preview Arizona Cardinals (3-3) at Washington Redskins (3-2)

The Redskins still can't believe they lost in Green Bay. Heck, Brett Favre still can't believe the Redskins lost in Green Bay. Playing Tim Rattay is just the tonic to rid the Redskins of the Packer hangover.

Redskins 20, Cardinals 16

Arizona Cardinals

Washington Redskins

The fans say: Redskins (87%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

Arizona

No injuries to report

Washington

No injuries to report

Arizona at Washington Game Preview

Posted: Wednesday October, 2007 07:10PM, Updated: Wednesday October, 2007 07:10PM

If anything, the last two weeks have stressed upon the Arizona Cardinals the importance of having a contingency plan.

With Matt Leinart out and Kurt Warner's status uncertain, the Cardinals may turn the offense over to recently signed Tim Rattay to start against the Washington Redskins on Sunday.

It was originally believed Warner would sit out at least this game due to a torn ligament in his left elbow, but he said Wednesday he hopes to play Sunday. Warner was limited in practice, but coach Ken Whisenhunt did not rule him out.

"Would I love to play on Sunday? Sure I would," Warner said. "I'm going to go forward with the idea that I can. But we've just got to weigh all the options and make sure that it's something that I can do."

Warner got his first start of the season last Sunday, but injured the elbow early in Arizona's 25-10 loss to the Carolina Panthers. He had split time in the previous three games with Leinart, who was lost for the season to a broken collarbone suffered a week earlier in a win over the St. Louis Rams.

For the second straight week, the Cardinals (3-3) have been forced to sign a backup quarterback. First it was Rattay, and on Tuesday it was Tim Hasselbeck.

Whisenhunt denied he was being vague with his decision on who would start in an effort to keep the Redskins off-balance.

"Maybe we'll go with a three-quarterback platoon this week and see if we can get that one to work," Whisenhunt said with a chuckle. "It's not so much gamesmanship. We've got to find the guy that we feel comfortable with doing what we can do.

"We're going to see how much Kurt can do, see if there's something that he can do for us in the game. And after that, we've got to make a decision between the two Tims."

Though it seems likely Rattay will start if Warner can't go, Hasselbeck could be only one injury away from attempting his first pass in an NFL game in four years.

Hasselbeck, who had been working radio and television, was released by the New York Giants on Sept. 1 after appearing in three games in 2005. He did not attempt a pass in any of those contests, and hasn't done so since 2003 with Washington.

Rattay is 5-13 as a starter, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' final two games last season as he went 1-1 while throwing for 397 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He entered last week's game in the first quarter after Warner was injured, finishing 12-of-24 for 159 yards with three interceptions and two fumbles, but he recovered both.

Whisenhunt said after the game the Cardinals had to scale back their playbook when Rattay took over since he had only three practices to grasp the offense. Arizona spent this week further adjusting its plans and now may benefit from Rattay's six years of experience with the 49ers' West Coast offense.

"I'm going to just try to keep learning this offense as fast as I can," said Rattay, who spent his first six NFL seasons with San Francisco.

Last Sunday's loss prevented the Cardinals from recording their first three-game winning streak since 2002. Arizona remains tied for first place with Seattle in a struggling NFC West division despite all the injury issues, including one to two-time Pro Bowl receiver Anquan Boldin.

Boldin, who has 22 receptions for 286 yards and three touchdowns in three games this year, hopes to be back on Sunday after missing the last three games with a sore hip. Even if Boldin is limited, Arizona still has another terrific target in Larry Fitzgerald, who leads the NFC with 40 receptions and 545 receiving yards.

"If Kurt doesn't go, it just puts more emphasis on us to make plays," Boldin said.

The Cardinals will need all the help they can get against the fifth-ranked pass defense in the league and the third-ranked overall defense. Washington (3-2) is allowing 179.4 passing yards per game and held Brett Favre to a season-low 188 yards last Sunday.

"We have such high standards defensively," linebacker London Fletcher told the Redskins' official Web site. "We don't want to allow opponents to get anything."

Despite the solid play of the defense last weekend, the Redskins would lose to the Packers 17-14. Santana Moss had a terrible game, dropping two passes and setting up Green Bay's go-ahead touchdown late in the third quarter on a fumble. Moss pulled himself from the game, bothered by a cramping hamstring.

Despite the dismal performance, coach Joe Gibbs expects Moss, who has yet to score a touchdown this season, to bounce back.

"I have the absolute most confidence in that guy," he said.

The Redskins signed offensive tackles Kevin Sampson and Calvin Armstrong to the practice squad Tuesday in case Todd Wade (strained right groin) or Stephon Heyer (strained left hamstring) are unable to play. Washington nearly ran out of offensive linemen last week after losing three to injuries. Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas were already sidelined and the team usually only has seven linemen active on game day.

"We need to look at everything there," Gibbs said. "What I'm praying is that several of them are going to be able to bounce back and play."

Washington has won five straight over Arizona and is 27-6 against the Cardinals at home. This is Arizona's first visit to Washington D.C. since 2002 and the first time the teams have played since the Redskins won 17-13 in 2005.

The Cardinals are looking for their first win in the nation's capital since 1998.

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 1:00pm ET

Preview Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-3)

I'm writing this on Wednesday, and I truly have no idea if Vince Young and his ouchy quad will play in Sunday's game. But let's just say I have an idea. A source very close to Lourdes tells me Young spent Monday and Tuesday in France getting holy water sprinkled on the bum right wheel. The source said something about Young not caring if the leg had to be amputated, because he'll never miss a game in his hometown against the team that passed on him in the draft.

Titans 23, Texans 10

Tennessee Titans

Houston Texans

The fans say: Texans (50%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

Tennessee

No injuries to report

Houston

No injuries to report

Tennessee at Houston Game Preview

Posted: Thursday October, 2007 06:41PM, Updated: Thursday October, 2007 06:41PM

Tennessee Titans quarterback Vince Young is nursing a leg injury, but it will likely take more than that to keep him out of a game against the Houston Texans.

The Titans will be hoping Young's second trip to Houston is as memorable as his first when they face the Texans on Sunday.

The Texans (3-3) passed on Young, a Houston native and University of Texas star, in the 2006 draft, taking defensive end Mario Williams with the first overall pick instead. Houston decided to stick with David Carr at quarterback, but ended up cutting him after last season and acquiring Matt Schaub from Atlanta.

After the draft, Young said he was looking forward to returning to Houston to beat the Texans. He led the Titans (3-2) to a 28-22 win in Tennessee on Oct. 29 last season in his first matchup against the Texans and then dazzled in his first game in Houston on Dec. 10.

In that contest, Young threw for 218 yards on 19-of-29 passing and ran for a 39-yard touchdown in overtime to lead the Titans to a 26-20 win. He jumped into a crowd of fans that cheered for Houston most of the game, but erupted when he scored.

"It was a great ending, just being from Houston," Young said after that game. "And then being in front of my family ... it doesn't get any better than that."

The Texans certainly haven't forgotten Young's heroics.

"If you don't (remember), you weren't at that game," defensive end N.D. Kalu told the Texans' official Web site. "That's all you remember from that game. I remember it as clear as day. We've got to make sure it's not that close so he can't make that spectacular play again."

Heading into this year's matchup in Houston, Young is nursing a strained right quadriceps. He was injured during last Sunday's 13-10 loss at Tampa Bay when he scrambled for a 2-yard gain and was pushed out of bounds by defensive tackle Jovan Haye in the third quarter.

Young, who was replaced by backup Kerry Collins and did not return last Sunday, threw a little Thursday but remained sidelined during practice and did not test the leg.

"He loves it down there, and they love him down there," said tight end Bo Scaife, Young's college teammate at Texas. "I think there's nothing more for him to be able to play. I'm sure he's going to do everything he can to try to see that it happens."

Coach Jeff Fisher said Young could play against the Texans even if he doesn't manage to practice this week.

"We'll see where it goes," Fisher said. "There is potential future risk involved so we have to make sure it settles down."

If Collins starts instead on Sunday, it would be the 13-year veteran's first since Sept. 24, 2006 in a 13-10 loss at Miami. Collins completed 10 of 20 passes for 125 yards in place of Young last week, but was mostly ineffective until he engineered a 13-play, 86-yard drive that resulted in a game-tying touchdown run from LenDale White.

That touchdown was just Tennessee's second on offense in eight quarters since its bye week. The Buccaneers won the game on a field goal with 11 seconds left, ending the Titans' five-game road winning streak.

The game-winning field goal was the first score the Titans have given up in the fourth quarter this season. Tennessee's defense also held Tampa Bay to just 30 rushing yards and leads the league with just 63.8 allowed on the ground per game.

Last season, the Titans owned the third-worst rushing defense in the NFL with 144.6 yards allowed a contest and ranked last in the league with 369.7 total yards yielded per game.

Houston, meanwhile, ranks 29th in the NFL with just 81.7 rushing yards per game this season. The Texans ran for 228 total yards in their first two games, but have just 262 in their last four contests.

Ahman Green returned last Sunday after missing two weeks with a knee injury, but managed only 44 yards on 16 carries in Houston's 37-17 loss in Jacksonville.

"Ahman, I don't think he's himself yet, but I think he's close," coach Gary Kubiak said Monday. "It's good to get out of the game with him healthy. I expect him to come back this week and be even better. He was awful close a couple of times yesterday."

The Texans managed only six points off three Jaguars fumbles, and Schaub turned the ball over twice in the fourth quarter. Houston also allowed Jacksonville to rush for 244 yards.

"When you run the ball for nine-point-something yards a carry in this league, you're kicking somebody's tail," Kubiak said. "That was ours they were kicking."

The Texans have lost three of four since opening the season with wins over Kansas City and Carolina. They have been having trouble finishing drives, converting only two of their 10 red-zone chances in their last three games.

"I guess the good news is we're getting down there," Kubiak said. "But the bad news is we're not taking advantage of getting down there."

Houston's offense could get a boost Sunday, as Andre Johnson might return after missing four games with a knee sprain. Johnson caught 14 passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns in two games before the injury.

"We liked the progress we saw last week, so we've just kind of got our fingers crossed that he's ready to go this week," Kubiak said.

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 4:05pm ET

Preview New York Jets (1-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-4)

This game presents a major problem for Eric Mangini. He's looking for the right time to get the Kellen Clemens Era kick-started. This is the time, and this is the place. But Chad Pennington is going to have one of those-back-to-the-future games, looking like he did in his prime, and even though the Jets will be 1-6, Mangini won't be able to go to Clemens coming off a game like this.

Bengals 34, Jets 30

New York Jets

Cincinnati Bengals

The fans say: Bengals (85%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

New York

No injuries to report

Cincinnati

No injuries to report

New York at Cincinnati Game Preview

Posted: Wednesday October, 2007 11:54PM, Updated: Wednesday October, 2007 11:54PM

The Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets hope to begin turning around their dismal seasons when they meet Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Bengals (1-4) have lost four straight, including a disappointing 27-20 loss at Kansas City last weekend coming off their bye week. Cincinnati is mired in last place in the AFC North, a division they won in 2005 before missing the playoffs last year.

It's also the first four-game skid for Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, who claims he is not feeling any pressure for the poor start. Cincinnati is on its longest slide since a six-game losing streak from Nov. 10-Dec. 15, 2002, the season before Lewis was hired.

"I guess I'll disappoint the fans if they think there's heat," Lewis said. "My only heat is internal and that's what drives me. That's the good thing, I guess, about this position. I'm not going to get concerned.

"Our margin for error is tight. That's the result of being 1-4. That's what we need to realize. Every play right now, we're not getting the benefit of the doubt. Balls are not really bouncing our way. That's what we need to realize and keep doing things the right way. Building upon the positive things and making corrections when it's not as positive and correct."

One of the problems Cincinnati has faced is a slew of injuries, including to star running back Rudi Johnson (hamstring). He sat out a 34-13 loss to New England on Oct. 1, and had only four carries against the Chiefs. Johnson has 185 rushing yards on 62 carries and just one touchdown catch.

Right tackle Willie Anderson missed last week's loss with foot and knee injuries. The offensive line has used four different combinations in Cincinnati's first five games.

The lack of a productive running game has put pressure on quarterback Carson Palmer and receivers Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who have combined for 1,083 yards and 10 of Cincinnati's 13 offensive touchdowns. Houshmandzadeh has seven of those scores, two shy of his career-best set in 14 games last season.

New York (1-5) enters on a three-game losing streak, and quarterback Chad Pennington has taken the brunt of the blame. Pennington has thrown all six of his interceptions this season during the skid, including one in a 16-9 loss to Philadelphia last week - the first time the Jets failed to reach the end zone this year.

With fans and media clamoring for backup Kellen Clemens to be inserted, coach Eric Mangini is sticking with Pennington.

"There's a lot of different areas that need to get better: interceptions, tackling, run fits, all those things, coaching, strategy," Mangini said. "All those things need to improve and we're all in this together. It's not a one-person issue."

Pennington completed a season-low 11 of 21 passes for 128 yards in last week's loss as the Jets' offense stalled despite a season-high 130 yards rushing from Thomas Jones. Tight end Chris Baker also criticized New York's play-calling, but receiver Jerricho Cotchery backed Pennington.

"He's our leader," Cotchery said. "He's the leader of this team, not only on offense. One guy isn't going to create a spark because each individual has to create that spark within himself to help this team out. I think that's kind of a sensitive topic because everyone loves Chad in this building."

Jones' effort was a bright spot. Acquired from Chicago in the offseason, he is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry on the road.

The Jets' defense also ranks among the bottom five teams in the NFL with six sacks and two forced fumbles.

New York has won five straight against Cincinnati, including a 31-24 victory on Sept. 12, 2004 in the last meeting.

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 4:05pm ET

Preview Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) at Oakland Raiders (2-3)

Underrated story angle of the season so far: the fall of the Raider D. Oakland is 26th in total defense, 24th in points allowed (25.6 a game) and 27th in the league with seven sacks in five games. Maybe it's Rob Ryan's hair.

Chiefs 17, Raiders 15

Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders

The fans say: Chiefs (59%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

Kansas City

No injuries to report

Oakland

No injuries to report

Kansas City at Oakland Game Preview

Posted: Thursday October, 2007 06:25PM, Updated: Thursday October, 2007 06:25PM

The Kansas City Chiefs have rebounded from a sluggish start by playing some of their best football in the last few weeks. They'll try and keep it going against one of their favorite opponents.

The Chiefs look to move over .500 for the first time this season and defeat the Oakland Raiders for the ninth straight time when they visit McAfee Coliseum on Sunday.

After being outscored 40-13 in losing its first two games, Kansas City (3-3) has won three of its last four to move into a tie with San Diego atop the AFC West.

"We're 3-3 - not where we'd like to be - but we've dug ourselves back out of that hole again and we're hopeful we can stay out," Chiefs coach Herm Edwards said after last Sunday's 27-20 victory over Cincinnati.

Against the Bengals, Tony Gonzalez caught career touchdown passes Nos. 62 and 63 to break the record of 62 TD catches by a tight end held by Shannon Sharpe. Gonzalez finished with 102 receiving yards last Sunday, and has 369 yards and three touchdowns on 29 receptions in his last four games.

The eight-time Pro Bowler has been at his best against the Raiders, tallying 1,210 receiving yards and seven career TDs against them in 19 games - both career highs against any opponent.

After the Chiefs gained just 10 yards on the ground in their 17-7 loss to Jacksonville on Oct. 7, Larry Johnson finished with 119 rushing yards on 31 carries and scored his first TD of the season last Sunday.

"We were able to run the ball," Gonzalez said. "This is something that we have to do to be successful. We know what we're capable of doing. We know how good we are. We were able to go out there and prove it. It only lasts 24 hours and after that we have to go do it again next week against the Raiders."

Oakland is fifth-worst in the league in run defense, allowing an average of 144.8 yards per game. Last Sunday, the Raiders allowed a season-high 206 rushing yards in a 28-14 loss to San Diego, as reigning MVP LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for four scores.

Johnson hopes for a similar performance against Oakland's vulnerable run defense.

In two games against the Raiders last season, Johnson ran for 289 yards on 62 carries with three touchdowns. Johnson's 634 career rushing yards and nine rushing TDs against Oakland in six games are his most against any opponent.

Johnson may end up losing some carries to Priest Holmes, who had another impressive practice Thursday and could be activated for the first time since a severe head and neck injury in 2005.

"He's running the ball hard," Chiefs linebacker Donnie Edwards said. "When you're away from the game you really don't know. But for him it's just like riding a bike, getting the ball in his hands and seeing the defenses and making his cuts. He's feeling at home already."

Kansas City traded backup running back Michael Bennett to Tampa Bay for draft picks on Tuesday, creating a spot for the three-time Pro Bowler.

Holmes who turned 34 this month, owns 18 Chiefs' single-game and career records, including career marks for rushing yards (5,933) and rushing touchdowns (76), but Edwards still does not know if he'll be activated for this game.

Kansas City has had few problems beating Oakland lately, winning 26 of 34 meetings since 1990.

The Chiefs have won a franchise-record eight straight over the Raiders - their longest active streak against any opponent - but seven of those wins have been by seven points or less.

Oakland (2-3) is no stranger to eight-game losing streaks to AFC West opponents, as last Sunday's loss was its eighth straight to the Chargers.

The Raiders, who were an NFL-worst 2-14 last year, have lost 16 straight games in the AFC West.

Oakland averaged a league-leading 194.3 rushing yards per game through Week 5, but was held to a season-low 53 yards on 23 rushing attempts against San Diego.

"We're close to being a good team, but we just played like a bad team,'' offensive lineman Robert Gallery said. "You can overcome some things, but I think in all facets of the game, we killed ourselves."

Quarterback Daunte Culpepper completed 24-of-37 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown in his second start of the season last Sunday, but also threw two interceptions, lost a fumble and was sacked six times. Kansas City, meanwhile, is tied with Philadelphia for the second-most sacks in the NFL with 19.

The Raiders have split their only two home games this season, and have won just three of their last 14 at McAfee Coliseum.

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 4:15pm ET

Preview Minnesota Vikings (2-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)

Last week, the Cowboys did a good job in rendering Randy Moss fairly insignificant, other than the fact he helped open up the middle of the field for Wes Welker. This week, the Cowboys will gang up on Adrian Peterson and hold him under 100 yards on his return to the state where he was a high school legend. Problem for Minnesota: Tarvaris Jackson is not Tom Brady.

Cowboys 30, Vikings 13

Minnesota Vikings

Dallas Cowboys

The fans say: Cowboys (91%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

Minnesota

No injuries to report

Dallas

No injuries to report

Minnesota at Dallas Game Preview

Posted: Wednesday October, 2007 01:20PM, Updated: Wednesday October, 2007 01:20PM

Though it's still only October, the Dallas Cowboys believe they're ready to play in February - even after a decisive loss on their home field.

The Cowboys try to regroup from their first defeat of the season when they host NFL leading rusher Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.

Dallas fell 48-27 to New England last week in a matchup that marked only the fifth time in league history that two undefeated teams with five or more wins faced each other. The Cowboys committed a season-high 12 penalties, failed to stop the Patriots on their first five drives and surrendered their most points since giving up 49 to Philadelphia on Nov. 15, 2004, but are still convinced that they'll be playing in this season's Super Bowl in Glendale, Arizona.

"If they make it to Arizona, we will see them again," receiver Patrick Crayton said of the Patriots. "Seriously, I'm not backing down from that statement."

The Cowboys (5-1), who have their bye week after hosting Minnesota (2-3), have allowed an NFC-worst 11 passing touchdowns this year. Dallas, however, has been stingier against the run, yielding just under 80 yards per game and two touchdowns on the year.

It will be sorely tested by Peterson, a native of Palestine, Texas - about two hours away from Dallas.

The rookie running back turned in one of the best performances in the NFL this season last Sunday in a 34-31 win at Chicago, running for a team-record 224 yards on 20 attempts and touchdowns of 67, 73 and 35 yards.

"I just got comfortable, more comfortable with the speed of the game," Peterson said. "I knew anything was possible."

Peterson, who played three times in Dallas in college in the Oklahoma-Texas rivalry, is still officially the backup to Chester Taylor. Peterson, however, leads the NFL in rushing yards (607) and yards per carry (6.3).

"He has had a lot of good days at Oklahoma," Vikings coach Brad Childress said. "And I can say it over and over, I sound like a broken record, but he is just happy to be contributing and being a viable part of this team and this organization and just finding ways that he can contribute. It's extremely refreshing."

Peterson also has 10 receptions for 175 yards this year, and returned a kickoff 53 yards last week to set up Ryan Longwell's winning 55-yard field goal as time expired.

Whether struggling Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson can take advantage of Dallas' inability to defend against the pass is questionable. Jackson returned against the Bears after missing two games with a groin injury and completed a season-low 9 of 23 passes for 136 yards.

"You just want to be able to make plays, too," Jackson said. "You don't want to be that guy that holds the team back."

The Vikings are the only team in the NFL yet to allow a rushing touchdown, but they will have to shore up their pass defense against Tony Romo, Terrell Owens and Crayton. Minnesota has yielded an NFC-high 1,442 yards through the air, and Romo - an Eastern Illinois product like Childress - has 15 touchdowns to lead the conference.

"He throws early; he doesn't throw hard, which he is a great anticipatory thrower from that standpoint," Childress said. "I think that's the thing that makes him good. He understands his scheme. Heavy emphasis on Eastern Illinois though."

The Cowboys have been peppered with questions about the Patriots early this week, but they expect to go into their bye on a high.

"We're still 5-1. No, it wasn't beautiful and we got spanked a little bit," linebacker Bradie James said. "One game is not going to define you. ... Our confidence hasn't wavered. We still have opportunities to be successful, and that's what we're going to do."

Minnesota has won five straight against Dallas, including a playoff victory in 2000. The teams haven't met since the Vikings won 35-17 on Sept. 12, 2004.

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 4:15pm ET

Preview Chicago Bears (2-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

I can see Monday's game story today. PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Devin Hester returned a punt 106 yards, caught a 99-yard touchdown pass, kicked three field goals after Robbie Gould went down with a hamstring pull, and drove the team bus to the airport after the game when the driver fell ill after being bitten by a rabid Philadelphia dog, leading the Bears to a 23-20 victory over the Eagles.

Bears 23, Eagles 20

Chicago Bears

Philadelphia Eagles

The fans say: Eagles (62%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

Chicago

No injuries to report

Philadelphia

No injuries to report

Chicago at Philadelphia Game Preview

Posted: Wednesday October, 2007 06:50PM, Updated: Wednesday October, 2007 06:50PM

Defensive end Alex Brown wants people to stop focusing on the Chicago Bears' struggles on offense - and start looking at their difficulties on defense.

The underachieving Bears will be trying to bounce back from a disastrous defensive performance when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.

Chicago (2-4) allowed 444 yards in Sunday's 34-31 loss to Minnesota and let Adrian Peterson rush for 224 yards - the most against the Bears in their 88-year history.

"You talk all the time how bad the offense played when they play bad," Brown told the Bears' official Web site. "Talk about the defense. Talk about how bad we played today. Do that."

So much talk about Chicago's early struggles focused on ineffective quarterback Rex Grossman, and that only recently has begun to change with Brian Griese starting the last three games. Griese, who has thrown six interceptions and seven touchdown passes, was 26-of-45 for 381 yards with three TDs and two INTs against the Vikings in his first home game as the Bears' starter.

However, Chicago's rushing defense fell from 12th in the league to 26th at 134.2 yards allowed per game. The Bears, who gave up an NFC-low 294.1 yards per game last season en route to the Super Bowl, now rank second-to-last in the conference with 361.3 yards yielded per contest.

The Bears defense was without starting tackle Darwin Walker because of a knee problem and has been plagued by injuries this season. Still, the unit was upset with its performance.

"(When) the offense gives us 31 points, we should win," Brown said. "The special teams played great. The offense played great. We stunk. We played horrible."

The Bears now face a Philadelphia offense that ranks third in the NFC with 352.4 yards per game.

However, the Eagles (2-3) are hardly unstoppable, having scored just five touchdowns in 16 trips inside the red zone this season. Their only touchdown in Sunday's 16-9 win over the New York Jets was a 75-yard pass from Donovan McNabb to Kevin Curtis.

"We need to worry about the Bears more than who we're playing next, because we're not playing very good football," Chicago linebacker Hunter Hillenmeyer said. "It's not what people are doing to us, it's what we're doing. Until we figure that out, it doesn't matter who we play, because if you don't do the basics of football, you're not going to win games."

The Bears fell into last place in the NFC North last week, and the Eagles remain in the NFC East cellar.

"We feel like we have a lot of one-game seasons coming up," Bears coach Lovie Smith said.

Chicago's lackluster defensive effort against the Vikings overshadowed an outstanding game from Devin Hester, who returned a punt 89 yards for a score and caught a game-tying 81-yard TD pass with 1:38 left. Hester has returned two punts and one kickoff for touchdowns this season, but had just one catch for three yards coming into the game.

Ryan Longwell's 55-yard field goal on the final play sent Chicago to the loss a week after it scored 10 points in the fourth quarter for a 27-20 comeback win at Green Bay. A week earlier at Detroit, Chicago gave up an NFL-record 34 points in the fourth quarter in a 37-27 loss.

"If there's a panic button anywhere around, we all need to race to it," Brown said. "We need to start winning right now. If we don't, it's going to be over."

The Eagles avoided panic mode with their win over the lowly Jets, but their offensive performance likely wouldn't have been enough against most teams.

"We've always talked about a one-game-at-a-time approach and with the parity the way it is in the National Football League, you've got to over-exaggerate that," coach Andy Reid said. "Don't worry about anything other than getting yourself better each week and the team that you're playing. You've got to make sure that you're preparing for them."

McNabb threw for 278 yards on 22-of-35 passing, and Brian Westbrook ran for 120 yards on 20 carries after missing a game with an abdominal strain. Still, the Eagles have managed only two touchdowns in four games, excluding a 56-21 win over Detroit in Week 3.

"We put ourselves in a bad position a couple of times. We didn't do exactly what we needed to do on offense, but when you win, you win and it feels great," Westbrook said.

Cornerback Lito Sheppard missed his fourth straight game with a knee sprain, but is confident he will be able to return against the Bears. Coach Andy Reid said safety Brian Dawkins, who has missed three games with a neck injury, also may be able to return.

The Eagles have won the last five meetings between the teams, including a 2002 playoff game, since a 20-14 loss in Chicago on Dec. 24, 1995. The Bears are visiting Philadelphia for the first time since 2000 and haven't won there since a 17-3 victory on Oct. 10, 1993.

Close Game Preview

Sunday 10/21, 4:15pm ET

Preview St. Louis Rams (0-6) at Seattle Seahawks (3-3)

Do I have to pick a winner here? Could I pick both teams to lose?

Seahawks 20, Rams 17

St. Louis Rams

Seattle Seahawks

The fans say: Seahawks (92%)

The GM Certified Injury Report

St. Louis

No injuries to report

Seattle

No injuries to report

St. Louis at Seattle Game Preview

Posted: Thursday October, 2007 06:23PM, Updated: Thursday October, 2007 06:23PM

As bad as the Seattle Seahawks have played of late, they are still at the top of the NFC West standings. The St. Louis Rams have not been nearly as fortunate.

The Seahawks look to avoid a third straight loss when they host the winless Rams in a divisional matchup on Sunday.

Seattle (3-3) lost 28-17 at home to previously winless New Orleans last Sunday, a week after falling 21-0 at Pittsburgh. The Seahawks, who last lost three in a row in December, can't afford falling to another winless team in St. Louis (0-6), which looks to avoid opening with seven straight losses for the first time in franchise history.

"Our record is what it is," said Seattle coach Mike Holmgren, whose team tries to win its fifth in a row over the Rams. "There are logical reasons, honest reasons why we've lost games. There's only one thing to do: Roll up your sleeves and work hard."

Despite their recent struggles, the Seahawks are tied with Arizona for the lead in a division where the four teams have combined to lose 12 consecutive games and none of them has a winning record.

"We've got a lot we can correct, and that's what we've got to do," quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said.

Seattle can start by getting running back Shaun Alexander on track. The former Pro Bowler rushed for a total of 60 yards on 25 carries in his last two games after gaining 353 in his first four games. It's his lowest two-game production since November 2002 when he gained 60 yards against Arizona and Denver.

Alexander has just two TDs - none in the last four games - two years after setting what was then a league record with 28 touchdowns.

"I don't get into excuses," Alexander told the team's official Web site. "I can't play that game because then we'll find one for everything. We've just got to play hard and we'll figure it out."

Alexander could break out versus a Rams club which has the NFC's worst run defense, allowing 134.5 yards per game. Though he did not play in either matchup with St. Louis last season because of a foot injury, Alexander has averaged 102.3 yards in nine games against them, including 284 yards and five TDs in two meetings in 2005.

Hasselbeck was 26-for-43 for a season-high 362 yards and two touchdowns last week while trying to lead a comeback against the Saints, but has thrown five interceptions in his last four games.

He has thrown for 827 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions in his last three contests against the Rams.

For this matchup, though, Hasselbeck likely won't have Deion Branch, who will miss a second straight game with a foot injury, but fellow receiver D.J. Hackett should be available after playing only one game this season due to an ankle problem.

Defensively, the Seahawks lost three-year starting tackle Chuck Darby for the season to a knee injury last week. Seattle has allowed 49 points in its last two games since a 23-3 win at San Francisco on Sept. 30.

St. Louis, w

posted by phantom

Oct. 18 2007 10:23pm

Post a Reply

You must login to post a reply.

Welcome to Got Picks!

We are a community of sports handicappers and betting degenerates. Some of us post plays and others just follow. We all try to make some money while having fun.

Existing user? Sign In New to Got Picks? Sign Up