The Max
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KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 8 Issue 9 October 18-22, 2007 •
NEW GUYS KEEP LAST WEEK’S MAX RESULTS
ALMOST SEMI-RESPECTABLE
My Horrid Max Week: With Matty going 2-0, Erik 1-0-1, and Dave 1-1, the Max stumbled to a 4-7-1
mark. Yep, I went 0-6 with my selections. My Max selections have been very poor this year. It is a bit
puzzling, as over the years the Max has done pretty well. One reason that I brought in Dave a couple of
years ago and Matty and Erik this year was to enable myself to do writeups of greater depth and higher
quality. Ironically, when I put the Max to bed last week, I really thought my writeups overall were some of
the best I’ve ever done. I really thought I had dug somewhat deep to find some good information, make
some good comparisons, etc. But the results hardly bore that out. I’m not sure why my plays have been
doing so poorly in print. I’m not having a great phone service year, but a good NFL mark is keeping us out
of negative territory with the games I decide to bet after working on them all week.
In case this is in your mind at all, I do not hold back games in the Max. I never say “I’ll use this on the
phones, so I won’t share it in print.†The Max is my best shot on Sunday night and Monday. In fact, 4 of
the 6 selections did, in fact, make it to my phone service card. Adding a couple of decent plays had the
phone service week a little less disastrous. Anyhow, my apologies for the poor performance in the Max so
far. There’s a long way to go and while I can’t promise that I’ll win I can tell you that I’ll continue to work
enthusiastically on this stuff, and usually positive results flow from consistent hard work.
Next Week: College System Week: All three systems on the back page involve the Patriots/Dolphins
game. One has the Pats, one has the ‘fins, and one has the total. Technical handicappers frequently find
offsetting information in the same game. It is just part of the process. But it makes for a dull back page. I
looked back and we’ve had a lot of NFL systems on that page. So next week I’ll ask the contributors for
college systems. We’ll call it College System Week.
Midweek Pushes, Dave’s Turn: Matty pushed with the Redskins on the Midweek play Sunday. This week
Dave Fobare will handle the Midweek Phone play on his comp phone at 1-770-649-1078. It will be up by
Wednesday night and stay up through Saturday morning.
Comp Phones: Dave’s comp phone is at 1-770-618-8700 Matty and Erik share a comp line at 1-404-250-
7555. And don’t forget to call Dave’s taped recording at 1-770-618-8700 for the Midweek this week any time
from Wednesday night through Saturday morning.
Copyright 2007. All Rights Reserved.
Published by Strategic Sports Publishing
8343 Roswell Road. #325, Atlanta, Georgia 30350
Phone (770.649.1078) Fax (770.234.5051) Email (kevino@bellsouth.net)
2
SELECTIONS: October 18-22, 2007
College Football
Saturday, October 20th, 2007
Buffalo (+4) over @Syracuse
Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare
Despite the large disparity in class from the Big
East down to the Mid American, Buffalo is the
better team and deserves to be the favorite in
this game. The Bulls have made definite strides
in Turner Gill's second season at the helm. At
3-1 in the MAC East the Bulls are a legit
contender for the division crown and
conference championship game. And if the title
eludes them a bowl-eligible season would still
be a tremendous accomplishment. The Bulls
need three more wins with six games left to
play. At this point every game is meaningful for
Buffalo.
The Bulls are favored by a 51-23 ATS
momentum situation based on their high
offensive output the last two games, a pair of
conference wins over Ohio and Toledo. The
Orangemen have next weekend off before
making a trip to play Pittsburgh on November
3. That upcoming week off makes it hard for a
coaching staff to keep their charges'
concentration, and I have a negative 6-26 ATS
system that applies to Syracuse based on that.
My favorite tech on this game is a negative 76-
129 ATS system that plays against favorites
with poor rushing defenses. That certainly fits
Syracuse; they are giving up 233 yards per
game on the ground at a rate of 5.3 yards per
carry.
About the only motivating factor in Syracuse's
favor has to be the fact that Buffalo occupies
the same recruiting area. And if Syracuse were
the better team I'd be very hesitant about
backing the upstate upstarts. But the Bulls are
the better team. Even after accounting for
schedule strength my stats indicate the Bulls
should be almost a 6-point favorite. Combined
with favorable tech and the drive for a bowl
game the case for Buffalo is one sided. Take
Buffalo plus the points. Buffalo by 3.
Get Your Tech Fix From Dave Fobare: Dave
shares a lot at 1-770-618-8700, so call his free
phone for free info and selections today.
@Clemson (-17) over Central Michigan
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
This looks like a great situation for Clemson.
They enter this game off back-to-back losses
and also off a week of rest. Prior to their bye,
Clemson lost at Georgia Tech as a road favorite
and lost to Virginia Tech as a 6-point home
favorite. There’s really no shame in losing
those two games because both Tech’s have
very good defenses that are awesome against
the run. And the inability to run on those
teams is the reason why Clemson was unable
to get things going on offense. However, that
will all change here as they face the extremely
weak defense of Central Michigan. Clemson
will be able to dominate this game at the line
of scrimmage and will be able to score at will.
Central Michigan allows 35 points per game on
total yardage of 477. They allow 171 yards per
game on the ground on 4.3 yards per rush.
The combination of James Davis and C.J.
Spiller at running back for Clemson has to be
salivating at this match-up. It’s a huge class
relief going from facing consecutive teams that
allow less than a 100 yards on the ground and
2.5 yards per rush to what they’ll face in this
game. Over the last 4 years, Central Michigan
has played 7 games on the road vs. non-MAC teams.
They’ve lost those games by scores of 52-7, 45-22,
41-17, 45-36, 40-3, 41-10, and 24-7. Those
numbers equate to them being outscored 288-102
for an average final score of 41 to 14.5 for a
difference of 26.5 points per game. And that’s 10
points greater than the posted spread here.
Clemson has played 8 out of conference home
games over the last 4 years. They’ve won all but
one (lost to South Carolina last year), winning those
games by scores of 49-26, 38-10, 54-6, 51-0, 63-9,
37-7, and 35-6. They’ve outscored their opponents
317-64 for an average final score of 45.2 to 9.1 for a
difference of 36.1 points per game. So the out of
conference numbers match perfectly, and they tell
us that Clemson hammers lesser competition while
Central Michigan gets drilled when facing better
opponents. Clemson needs a confidence-building
win before getting back into ACC play and they get
the perfect opponent to do just that. Clemson has
no excuse not to absolutely put a beating on Central
Michigan. This game is a complete mismatch so
look for a blowout. Clemson by 24.
3
@Mississippi (+4½) over Arkansas
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Arkansas’ offense is as one-dimensional as it
gets. Starting quarterback Casey Dick has
completed 13 passes or fewer in every game
this season. With Darren McFadden spelled by
the equally impressive Felix Jones, Arkansas’
powerful running game appears to have a big
advantage over an Ole’ Miss run defense that is
no prize, even if the Hog duo combined for
only 85 yards rushing on Saturday. The Rebels
have allowed 5.5 yards per rush or more to
Missouri, Florida, and Georgia. But there is no
Chase Daniel, Tim Tebow, or Matthew Stafford
on Arkansas to keep the Rebs D honest. Casey
Dick is completing 51% of his passes for just
over 6.0 yards per pass attempt with 8 TD
passes and 5 interceptions. In other words, he
is little threat. That will allow Ed Orgeron’s
defensive plan to be to stack the run and try to
slow down the talented, though beat up,
running backs of Arkansas. The Rebs will have
8 or 9 men in the box on nearly every down,
and that won’t entice Arkansas to change their
game plan, due to the lack of success they’ve
had in the passing game. McFadden has
rushed for only 23 and 65 yards the past two
years against Ole’ Miss. Theoretically, that
could change if injured Marcus Monk plays, but
Monk played for only a single snap in the loss
to Auburn and his knee looked to be bothering
him. He may redshirt, with a decision to be
made this week.
At higher levels of competition, Arkansas’ onedimensional
offense will hurt them. And while
Ole’ Miss is not among the cream of college
football, the Rebels have some attributes. On
their home field they were in the game very
late against both Florida and Alabama,
enjoying a 420-378 yardage edge in the tight
loss to Alabama Saturday. And this is probably more
of a play against Arkansas as much as anything else.
Houston Nutt is taking a lot of flack and airplanes
towing messages demanding his firing have been
flying over recent home games. There is as much
turmoil in this program as any not located in Lincoln,
Nebraska in the country. And Arkansas three wins
thus far have all been at home against a pair of Sun
Belt teams and a 1-AA entrant. That’s all they’ve
beaten, as they have an 0-3 record in conference
play. They simply don’t have the resume of a team
worthy of being a favorite on the SEC road. Ole’
Miss by 3.
Tulane (+5½) over @SMU
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Tulane has been playing pretty well lately, but
just not winning games. The Green Wave
hung right in there against LSU in the first half,
doing some positive things on both sides of the
ball before the superior talent and depth of
LSU wore them down. Then Tulane thoroughly
outplayed Army on the road (400-271 total
yardage edge) before the Black Knights pulled
out a miracle win after the officials helped the
game get to overtime on the final play. Similar
deal at UAB on Saturday, as Tulane dominated
the flow of the game (504-372 total yardage,
24-15 first downs) and held the Blazers to a
single offensive TD, but penalties, turnovers,
and mistakes (UAB scored on a fumble
recovery and a kickoff return) hurt them.
Tulane has a brilliant running back in Matt
Forte, who is second nationally with an
average of 153 rushing yards per game. He
went for over 200 against UAB, and assuming
that the incensed Coach Bob Toledo coaxes a
less mistake-filled game out of his team, Forte
could put up another big number here.
Trailing 28-0, SMU scored a TD late to make the
final 28-7 in their game against Southern Miss.
Yardage was closer than you would think, but that
was due to the shape of the game, as the Mustangs
were in comeback mode almost all night long. SMU
really struggles defensively. The Mustangs are
allowing 4.7 yards per rush and over 65%
completions, with that inability to stop the run or the
pass a deadly combination. Tulane starting QB
Anthony Sceflo is going to be interspersed with
young Matt Moore, and the competition in practice
should sharpen both and having them both mixed
into the lineup could confuse SMU. The Green Wave
just missed on a lot of potential big plays against
Army and UAB. They’ll start to execute better as
they get used to the new systems on both sides of
the ball. And SMU is a good team to improve
against.
These teams both have a single win, but are going
in different directions. Tulane is coming out of their
post-Katrina troubles with a first-year coach and the
players see a future. SMU coach Phil Bennett is in
his sixth year and talk is that there won’t be a
seventh. That talk filters down to players who are
worried about their futures. Look for the scoreboard
to catch up with the yardage statistics for Tulane as
we take the points with the team with the 95-yards
per game better defense in this one. Tulane by 1.
4
Tennessee (+1) over @Alabama
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Alabama outlasted Ole’ Miss in Oxford on Saturday,
holding off the Rebels off late to hang on for a 3-
point win in a game where the Tide were outgained
both in passing and rushing. A win’s a win, and
another comeback 4th quarter effort is heartening to
see, as the lack of those was well documented
under former Coach Shula. But after that flawed
win, looking back on the results so far this season,
there’s an obvious reason that the Alabama job was
considered a challenge for Nick Saban. They aren’t
terribly talented. The signature conference-opening
win against Arkansas is less impressive now that the
Hogs are 0-3 in conference play. And the losses
aren’t terribly notable. Alabama has already lost at
home to Georgia (a team that was a late surge on
Saturday away from suffering their 9th straight SEC
Eastern Division loss), lost on the road to a Florida
State team that is 1-2 in the mediocre ACC, and
remember that they barely survived Houston two
weeks ago. The Tide scored only a single TD in the
final three quarters of that game and gained only
347 yards against a Houston team that allowed 48
points in regulation to horrid Rice this past Saturday
night.
Tennessee was written off by many after losing
early to very good Cal and Florida teams. Both of
those games were on the road, and both clubs put
up big numbers against the Vols. But they didn’t get
many breaks in either game and in the Florida game
fell apart late against a Gator team looking run up
the score. We can see from the past couple of
games that Tennessee is much better now. Against
very sound defenses of Georgia and Mississippi
State, the Vols have gone for 881 yards combined,
outgaining Georgia by 168 yards and Mississippi
State by 132 yards. A big difference is the offensive
line play, which is far superior to what the Vols were
getting earlier in the year. QB Erik Ainge has been
getting major kudos from offensive coordinator
David Cutcliffe. On Saturday Ainge combined with
Lucas Taylor 11 times for 186 yards. In a close 16-
13 home win last year UT outgained Bama 366-243.
There is simply a difference in class level in this one.
The talent of Tennessee is beginning to show
through. Though we’re not Fulmer fans, Cutcliffe
and defensive coordinator Chavis are both solid.
Tennessee’s freshman kicker has completed 12 of 13
and they have good athletes throughout their special
teams, while Leigh Tiffin is 9 for 19 from 30 yards or
more in his career, and has never tried one from 50
or more. The Vols are an ascendant team who ran
into a couple of buzzsaws early. We’ll look for them
to get the win against a Bama team that is still
finding their way. Tennessee by 6.
Get Free Plays: Erik Scheponik and Matty Baiungo
offer free plays on a recorded message. They
alternate day by day and have fresh info all week.
Benefit from their work by calling 404-250-7555.
Miami (+6) @Florida State
Selection and analysis by Erik Scheponik
The Hurricanes were without a starting linebacker
(plus 2 of top 6 already gone for the season), and 2
of their top 4 defensive tackles against Georgia Tech
including their best run-stuffer 330 lb. JR. Antonio
Dixon. They then lost another starting DT during
the game, and were down to undersized pass rusher
type Terez McCray, and undersized backups, as DT
is one of the thinner positions on the team this year.
The Yellow Jackets are the one team in the ACC that
you don’t want to be down to a makeshift front 7
against, and they simply wore Miami down in the 2nd
half as Tashard Choice ran for 150 2nd half yards.
behind that big Tech offensive line and the nation’s
best blocking FB Mike Cox. Tech ran 42 plays in the
2nd half to Miami’s 20, to gut out the close win.
Miami is a work in progress right now, and the effort
was much better than the sleepwalking jobs they
pulled against Duke and the first half of North
Carolina. Randy Shannon is playing different players
each game and how players practice that week will
determine each Saturday’s depth chart. Because of
the uncertainty in the lineup and holes on defense, I
would not lay points with this team. However, I will
be looking to take if the price is right the rest of the
way, because unlike the ‘Canes under Coker, they
will not quit playing for Shannon, and will be a
dangerous dog against some big opponents down
the stretch. Today’s opponent will, of course, bring
out the best in the Canes.
Unlike UM, who basically is looking long-term with
the hire of Shannon, FSU is under a lot of pressure
to win right now. They spent a lot of money on
their new coaching staff, and really haven’t been a
player in the national picture since 2000. They have
looked good at times this season, including a big win
over Alabama at home a couple of weeks back.
They have the better defense in this matchup,
allowing 4.5 yards per play and 17 points per game
compared to 4.9 YPR and 21 PPG for UM. However,
they still have major deficiencies on the offensive
side of the ball. Much like last year, neither QB can
maintain consistent play, and the running game is
nonexistent at 3.2 yards per rush. Their offensive
line was one of the ACC’s worst to begin with, and
injuries have further weakened this unit. They won’t
be able to pound UM’s weak interior like Georgia
Tech did, and the onus will be on the inconsistent
Lee/and or Weatherford.
The last 4 matchups in this series have not topped
30 points total. Doesn’t that make 6 seem a bit
steep for a team with FSU’s offensive issues? ‘Noles
6-15 ATS last 21 as a favorite, 4-10 ATS last 14 at
home, and the underdog has covered 8 of 10 in this
series. UM by 1.
5
Florida Atlantic (-7) over Louisiana-Lafayette
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
If pointspreads were based on real estate
valuations Boca Raton-based Florida Atlantic
would be laying 8 TD’s here in Lafayette. But
let’s look at these teams instead. Two weeks
ago against current BCS #2 entrant South
Florida, Florida Atlantic had the ball twice late
in the fourth quarter with the opportunities to
take leads. But it was not to be, as South
Florida pulled away late to win 35-23. It was a
very tight game, as FAU missed three field goals in
the first half and could have staked themselves to a
significant lead early had they not blown those and
a few other opportunities. It was the kind of loss
that is disappointing in that it could have made the
program, and it is the perfect time to have a week
off, as the Owls disappointment can be replaced by
the confidence that can be gained after playing a
fine game against a top-notch opponent. FAU has
now played 4 BCS conference opponents and played
well at times, including a win over Minnesota. Now
they have an opportunity to put all their focus on
Louisiana-Lafayette. And there will be significant
focus here, as last season FAU lost to the Ragin’
Cajuns 6-0 at home. With a week off, having just
hung with a top opponent, and now having shutout
revenge, the spot is ideal.
And the opportunity to face off against Louisiana-
Lafayette’s defense is pretty ideal as well. The
Cajuns have been getting progressively worse,
giving up 527 yards in a win over a lousy North
Texas team a couple of weeks ago and now last
week getting toasted for 681 yards in a 52-17 loss
to Arkansas State. Arkansas State scored on drives
of 71, 74, 84, 62, 82, 64, 79 and 66 yards, and only
one took more than nine plays.
Last season in their games against Troy, North
Texas, and Arkansas State (the three teams they
have already played both last year and this year),
Louisiana-Lafayette gave up a total of 970 yards.
This season against the same three opponents they
have given up 1538 yards. That comparison is
made to show that any matchup advantages that
Lafayette had to slow down FAU last year are gone.
FAU was young and beat up much of last year but
now are a veteran team and Howard
Schnellenberger expects to have every injured
player (other than those who are out for the season)
back in the lineup after the week of rest.
With the rested, better team, looking for the
opportunity to gain revenge and the opportunity to
play into a highly suspect stop unit, we’ll look for
FAU to beat up on a reeling Cajun club. Florida
Atlantic by 14.
NFL
Sunday, October 21st, 2007
Ravens @Bills Under 35
Selection and analysis by Erik Scheponik
The Ravens D may be a step down from the past
couple of seasons, but it is still one of the stronger
stop units in the NFL. They are a very proud bunch
that seems to have made some adjustments to
patch up some early season holes against the pass,
although their last two opponents, St. Louis with
Gus Ferotte, and the 49ers with Trent Dilfer aren’t
much of a litmus test. On the season, they rank in
the top 7 or 8 in just about every single defensive
category, including yards per game (272), and rush
defense (67 YPG on 2.9 yards per rush), so whether
its rookie Trent Edwards or JP Losman under center
for the Bills, they may not want to expect too much
help from Marshawn Lynch and the Bills run game.
Not sure which Ravens QB will get the nod this
week, but neither can get them into the end zone.
The Ravens rank 30th in the league in Red Zone
offense, and have only scored 6 offensive
touchdowns in 6 games this season against a fairly
weak slate of opposing defenses. Matt Stover has
been their primary offensive weapon with an
amazing 16 made field goals. They’ll move the ball
against Buffalo’s young defense, but it will again be
more Stover than McGahee or Heap inside the 20 as
Billick’s ego often gets in the way of sound play
calling, and the Ravens o-line is not adept at
grinding out the tough yards. Also, McGahee’s
strength as a RB is not his vision or the ability to
wiggle through the small holes when things get a
little tighter inside the 20, so it’s not all Billick.
Buffalo’s back 7 looks like it may welcome back 2-3
injured guys off of the bye week which will help
immensely as the defense has been a MASH unit all
season long. They rank dead last in the NFL in
yards allowed at 432 per game, but they do a good
job of bending but not breaking, allowing only 23
PPG. Like last year, they are among the league
leaders in interceptions with 9, and this despite the
fact they haven’t started the same secondary in
consecutive weeks yet due to the injuries. In
games against two of the league’s best offenses,
Pittsburgh and Dallas, the Bills were totally
outmanned, yet forced those teams to kick 8 field
goals. They’ve also faced the New England
offense, so this Ravens’ bunch will be a huge step
down in firepower. With one dominant defense, and
another that is getting healthier and should do a
good job of forcing field goals, along with two weak
offenses (the Bills rank 30th in PPG and 31st in YPG
on offense), UNDER is the way to go here.
6
@Dolphins (+17) over Patriots
Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare
Who in the world is going to fade a New
England squad that is 6-0 and hasn't won a
game by fewer than 17 points, that just came
off a 21 point win on the road against a team
many felt was the second best in the NFL, and
is facing a winless Miami team that has given
up 31 or more points 4 times in 6 games? I
will.
Let's take a look at Miami first. Over the long
run, NFL teams on extended losing streaks
have been good to bettors. Teams receiving
points and off 5+ losses are 109-70 ATS
provided they didn't lose their most recent
game by more than 10 points. All winless NFL
teams are 127-83 ATS from Game 5 on. NFL
home dogs that allowed more than 40 points
the week before are 67-36 ATS.
Despite a pair of picks thrown against Cleveland last
week, reserve QB Cleo Lemon is a good fit for a
game where the Fins are likely to be behind most of
the way. Lemon has thrown only 4 interceptions in
138 attempts in Miami, and has taken only 8 sacks
in that stretch. That ability to keep possession of the
ball combined with one of the NFL's top rushing
games is what allowed the Dolphins to come back
from a 24-3 first half deficit and make a game of it
in front of a hostile Cleveland crowd.
Despite putting up 48 points on the Cowboys in
Dallas last Sunday, the Patriots could only manage a
measly 75 overland yards on 29 carries. NFL teams
that come off a win despite a weak rushing
performance are due for a bad game, and a
negative 39-67 ATS system applies to the Pats here
based on that premise. Elite NFL teams that come
off a game against another elite team are generally
due for a letdown too, and a negative 59-117 ATS
system based on that principle applies against New
England here.
An oft-repeated handicapping maxim states that the
harder a team is to bet the better bet it is. That
certainly applies to Miami in this spot against the
league's best. The public will be betting New
England; this is the right time to be on the other
side. Take Miami plus the points. Patriots by only
10.
Get Your Tech Fix From Dave Fobare:
Dave shares a lot at 1-770-618-8700, so call
his free phone for free info and selections
today.
49ers (+) @New York Giants
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
One productive NFL strategy is to support bad
teams as they come out of their bye week.
Refreshed by the week off, given a chance to
get healthy and put a little separation from
their earlier problems, such poor clubs often
play their best game of the season. And San
Francisco may be in a position to do just that
here. The return to health angle definitely fits,
and it should help rejuvenate a positively
moribund Niners offense. The absence of tight
end Vernon Davis has been critical, and Davis
is expected to be back here. And the coaching
staff used the off week to put in more plays for
deep threat WR Ashley Lelei. Davis and Lelei
should keep opponents from keying on the run,
which should provide a lot more room for
Frank Gore. And while the Giants pass rush
has had some recent success, particularly
against the Eagles, with the mobile Alex Smith
expected to be back at quarterback for San
Francisco, the Giants will be unable to feast on
him like they did on Donovan McNabb. Jim
Hostler, the Niners offensive coordinator, has
been taking a lot of flack for unimaginative
game plans and he’ll likely use the extra week
to insert a little more creativity into the
proceedings. Let’s remember that this is an
offense that was widely seen as having some
of the best young skill position talent in the
league that was hurt badly by the injuries to
Davis and Smith. And the Niners are pretty
decent on the defensive side of the ball.
While the Niners are in a very positive
scheduling situation, the Giants played on the
road on Monday night, giving them even less
time to prepare than on a usually week. And
the Giants aren’t exactly a young team. Off a
“spotlight†game and now facing a team that
does nothing to demand that you pay attention
to them, it is tough to see how the Giants bring
their “A†game in this contest here. The home
field edge will be modest, as this is the most
unattractive home game of the season.
Everything shapes up for a flat performance by
the Giants. Points are well worth taking here
with a Niners team that should give a peak
effort against a Giants bunch that would be
perfectly happy to win unimpressively. Giants
by only 4.
7
@Broncos (+3½) over Steelers
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
If this selection was based on statistical analysis,
then Pittsburgh would be the only side to play. The
Steelers hold every statistical advantage on offense
and defense in this match-up with their defensive
edge being of monumental proportions. But picking
winners against the spread is much more than
breaking down and comparing numbers. There are
a lot more successful strategies that consistently
beat the spread, especially in the NFL. And this
game represents one of those instances where the
stats are tossed from the equation, and instead the
selection is based solely on intangible stuff.
Denver has been an easy fade this year. Their slide
hasn’t been shocking but steeper than expected.
And that’s especially true when this team is favored.
However, they aren’t favored here but instead are
more than a field goal home underdog. And that’s
quite significant. Over the last 10 years, the
Broncos have played 88 games at home. They’ve
only been a home dog in 3 of those games going 2-
1 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread. It’s
been 5 years since the last time they were getting
points at home, a streak of 44 consecutive games.
And if the home dog angle isn’t motivation enough,
Denver also enters this off 3 straight losses with the
last being a 41-3 blowout by San Diego. They had
their bye last week, and all they heard was how bad
they stink. But, with this game being nationally
televised on Sunday night, the Broncos will put
everything they have into this game in order to
silence the critics. And giving head coach Mike
Shanahan an extra week to prepare has been deadly
for opposing teams. His teams have gone 14-4
against the spread off a bye, and with the added
circumstances, expect him to have his team ready
for a peak performance.
Pittsburgh also enters off their bye. But unlike the
Broncos, the Steelers have heard how good they are
all week. They shutout the Seahawks 21-0 prior to
it, and they did it without their full compliment of
players. Key players like Hines Ward, Santonio
Holmes, and Casey Hampton missed that game, but
they were still able to win convincingly. New head
coach Tomlin is also faced with a new challenge of
how to handle a bye week, and he’s got a tough
match-up having to face the master of the bye,
coach Shanahan. No question, Pittsburgh is head
and shoulders better than Denver. But remember,
the point spread is the great equalizer. And while
Pittsburgh has the stats, Denver trumps them with
all the intangibles listed above. Broncos by 3.
Get Free Plays: Erik Scheponik and Matty Baiungo
offer free plays on a recorded message. They
alternate day by day and have fresh info all week.
Benefit from their work by calling 404-250-7555.
Monday, October 22nd, 2007
@Jaguars (+3, -120) over Colts
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
On our phone service we went against the Colts in
their last game before the bye week hosting Tampa
Bay, and it was a very impressive performance by
an Indianapolis team riddled with injuries. With
Joseph Addai out Kenton Keith (Kenton Keith?) had
a huge game, going for 121 yards on 28 carries. In
Marvin Harrison’s absence, Reggie Wayne, Dwight
Clark and rookie Anthony Gonzalez had 7 catches
each. Safety Bob Sanders, so important to the Colts
defense, was out as well. It didn’t matter, as the
Colts rolled to a dominant win on yardage of 400-
177. The offensive line played extremely well and
Howard Mudd, the veteran offensive line coach for
Indy, is one of the best in the business. It shows
remarkable depth to lose players of that caliber and
have it not matter. And we didn’t even mention
linebacker Rob Morris, a steady performer who will
be missed. The injured offensive players should all
be back. Morris is done for the year and
importantly, Sanders doesn’t look to be back this
week.
Sanders likely absence helps the Jaguars greatly, as
you saw how critical his run support was during the
playoff run last season. And run support couldn’t be
any more important than it is in this game. The
Jags don’t have great receivers, but have a solid
running game. Even though the past few years
have been tough ones for the Jags, they match up
well against the Colts. Since being placed in the
same division in 2002 the Jaguars are 6-3-1 against
the spread. Last year they split with the Colts.
Early in the season they lost 21-14 in Indy despite
outrushing the Colts 191-63. In the rematch in
Jacksonville the Jags crushed the Colts 44-17,
running wild for 375 yards on the ground. David
Garrard is playing well and the more we see from
Jacksonville and Atlanta, the more it looks like
cutting Leftwich was addition by subtraction, both
on the field and in the locker room.
Jacksonville is a very strong team on the line of
scrimmage. During their 4-game winning streak
they’ve outgained opponents by over 60 yards in
each game. They’ve allowed their five opponents
13, 7, 14, 7, and 17 (Houston scored their only TD
of the game in the last 30 seconds) points. Look for
the Colts to have trouble scoring touchdowns
against this defense, as their red zone TD efficiency
number of 53.2% is low for a team with such a
quality offense. Indianapolis hasn’t put up big
numbers in their first two road games and the Jags
have the profile of a successful home dog in this
one. Jaguars by 3.
8
Systems & Strategies
Note: Frequently the systems that have come in have some contrast with our Max selections.
The systems are created independently of our selections and this will occur from time to time.
In my mind systems are more valuable than trends. A system can be true for the entirety of
either college or pro football. Trends focus on single teams. Take systems with a grain of salt,
but they can prove to be valuable tools in a handicapper’s arsenal. Sometimes they last for a
while. Sometimes they turn around. Always ask yourself, “does this make sense?†when
deciding on the validity of a system. Systems have never been the basis for my handicapping
but others enjoy success for them and this page is a popular feature in the Max.
Each week we’ll have systems and strategies that are true for the entirety of either college
football or the NFL from respected guest handicappers.
NFL System from Dave Fobare, free selections on tape at 770-618-8700
Streak On Over: In the NFL, play the over if the road team is on a 6+ game winning streak.
Pointspread Record Since 1990: 78-50 (60.1%)
This week’s application: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins over the total
NFL System from Nelly’s Sportsline, http://www.nellysports.com [nellysports.com]">www.nellysports.com, phone 608.283.3132
Chalky Road Favorite: Play on any NFL double-digit road favorite playing its second
consecutive game away from home.
Pointspread Record Since 1980: 15-7, 68%
This week’s application: New England Patriots
NFL System from Marc Lawrence, http://www.playbook.com [playbook.com]">www.playbook.com, 1.800.321.7777
Soft Sevens: Play against any NFL Game Seven undefeated favorite if they scored more than
points in their last game.
Pointspread Record since 1980: 13-3-1 (81%)
This week’s application: Miami Dolphins (play against New England Patriots)
Listen Up: Kevin appears on Marc Lawrence’s radio program (Playbook.com) and Steve Czaban’s
“First Team on Fox†program on Fox Sports Radio (XM 142) on Friday mornings at 8:10AM.
