Picks for Mon, Oct 8th

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Another winning day yesterday. That makes it 7 in a row.

Too bad Clev gave up an certain win with an improbable play. But, a push isnt too bad either (greed...lol).

6-3-1 yesterday

29-12-2 on the wk (70.7%)

Up 69 U on the wk (I have minimized my units to $50 since I got married and had a kid. LOL- no more 2-3 dimes a game like that memorable 2003 yr!)

Now, I understand that it is a lot of plays, and this method will bite you in the long run but, the games I played were actually studied in depth this wk. Also, many "added" games were 2H lines where the linesmakers dont have as much time to set lines to their angle. This is mostly true for Sat and Sund.

Anyways, I wished that I could say that I could spend as much time capping this wk also but I pretty much compromised the work wk to make $3,450 and, in my bizz (mortgage/real estate) that is one deal.

Lets ALL get rolling this wk and spread some quality info to each other.

I REALLY appreciate the mini-write ups when a peep goes one way...

Unfortunately, being here long enough you can read into why 7 people like a certain side in bases when you scroll all the way up to see that PC likes them...lol (even though, he is probably 1 of 3 cappers I would follow blind because, well, its really not that blind...)

Things that I'm thinking on this MNF---

Is this a lot of points for a team looking ahead??? I bet you there are "situational" angles to play Buff, but it would take balls...

Lets get after it this wk!

posted by thenooch

Oct. 8 2007 12:42am

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4-0 Overall on Sunday!!!

MLB 3-0 +7 Units as the BoSoX handle the Angels with ease!! NIce to see the Yanks come alive...maybe they make it a series now! Hey, atleast there will be bases to play tonight!!! Either way, neither of those teams can hang with the SOX!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Pats first half was easy...but the game was well, er, ah...close!!! Congrats to those that had them in the game!!!

So, when are the BCS rankings coming out??? BC!!!!!

Nooch, great to see you back and helluva job this week you sumbitch!!

posted by thebigmessy

Oct. 8 2007 1:20am

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Heya fellaz, new week to start off went 1-1 yesterday on posted play but last night I unloaded on the bears live wagering, best spread i got was bears +400 at one point LMAO!!!!!

Now back to monday night game, I am taking Cowboys/Bills over 44, Good Luck everyone.

Ytd 4-1-1 on posted play.

posted by petertrojan

Oct. 8 2007 11:36am

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ok fellas i hit last night with bears salvaging my week personally. i lost n.o. and balt but had extra juice on those. winning week needless to say for me.

record is now 89-48-5

glta

posted by jtmoney16

Oct. 8 2007 12:35pm

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My last 5 posts have hit for winners, but have been killin it with my local as well.....16 units this week.

Tonight is a tough read, I could go for a MRLASVEGAS69 GOY........make a come back brother...!!!!!

Also, thinking of doubling up on that Yankees under for tonite, as last nite we got slapped in the mouth on that under.

posted by shomeSSS

Oct. 8 2007 12:37pm

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Yanks will score tonight. Wang has sick stats at home but is on short rest so I can see him giving up a few as well. The Yanks have been quoted to be playing for a manager they love. Tonight I just don't see them loosing but this line at -205 is insane. All the value is with the tribe ML but I don't see Byrd getting it done. This guy is a nibbler who never K's, or walks anyone. Perfect pitcher for the Yanks to light up. Best play is over 10 in my opinion.

posted by hilly

Oct. 8 2007 12:57pm

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ok i'm locked in on my play for tonight. i waited for the spread to go up and it has. i have buff. +11. i'm gonna buy the half and take 11 1/2. i don't think it will cross 11 1/2 with my local.

situational play for dallas and buff. on a monday night football game. public was absolutely hammered this weekend with plays and i don't see why it stops tonight. 80% of bets are with dallas and i see buffalo either keeping it tight or getting the backdoor cover. edwards is poised for a rookie and played well last week. i look for josh reed and roscoe parrish to step up tonight. anthony hargrove also returns after a 4 game suspension and will give a little boost in the pash rush for buffalo. i think dallas will try and wear down buffalo's front 7 with a lot of running plays as dallas's line is way bigger than buffalo. i think buffalo can get lucky and hit a big play to either parrish or evans down field as roy williams isn't the greatest in pass coverage. buffalo has decent special teams so i see them making a play here tonight.

buffalo +11 1/2 (i bought the half is my play)

gl if you follow

posted by jtmoney16

Oct. 8 2007 1:03pm

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MLB post season 3-4 ATS -5.1 units in the Divisional Series.

not the start I looked for.

Thanks for the good words nooch, loved that under but had no idea the rocket was strugglin with the hammy as bad as he was. Johnny Damon (the former Royal) kills my under...THE HORRER.

I'll be back with a play on the yanks and my weekly best bet in NFL.

Bad week for me after killen it last week. I am one of the few it seems who had a bad week this week, but glad your all hitten.

hit em straight..see you boys tonight...

posted by pc7588

Oct. 8 2007 1:05pm

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THIS IS WHAT IM THINKING...........IF BUFF COVERS THE NUMBER, THEN THE TOTAL HAS TO BE UNDER...RIGHT???????

I THINK THIS MAKES SENSE AND WOULD BE A SOLID ACTION/REVERSE OR PARLAY PLAY.....??????????

THOUGHTS?

posted by shomeSSS

Oct. 8 2007 1:15pm

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Dallas/Yanks ml parlay pays -135

small play for some action

GL

posted by astroman

Oct. 8 2007 1:29pm

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PC ,

Right there with ya bro.! This week I'm just over .500 going into tonight.....( Last week is what really SUCKED! ). Overall still a good year and BUNCH of GREAT guys on here to do battle with the man !

NOOCH ! NOOCH ! PROPS Bro. keep up the good work !

( From someone else in the Real Estate industry, this weeks cash probably still came in handy! haha! )

BeeSmart :wink:

posted by beesmart

Oct. 8 2007 1:39pm

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hey fellas havent posted in a long while but i like astromans post

he's on to something with that ml parley yanks/cowboys ml parley

goodluck astro$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

posted by gtnp

Oct. 8 2007 2:21pm

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i went to weather. com and it shows fellas isolated thunderstorms by game time for tonight. weather will be in the seventies as well. if it rains and the field is wet, i like buffalo covering even more. don't have an opinion on the total but weather might be something to watch. if anyone here lives near the stadium keep us updated on weather conditions as the day goes on.

gl again fellas and let's get the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$ tonight.

posted by jtmoney16

Oct. 8 2007 3:06pm

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something else i noticed fellas. the public took it in the ass yesterday. aside from the giants and sandiego. balt,n.o., tenn, hou, ariz, g.b. all lost ats. these were the 8 biggest games where the public was betting heavily on a particular team. tonight public is all over dallas and if its the last night of the week people are gonna hammer it and try to get their money back. i have a feeling there will be some people not gambling again for a while as the bookie takes everything they have from them. lmao.

just another observation here so take it for what its worth.

gl everyone

posted by jtmoney16

Oct. 8 2007 3:28pm

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Buffalo (+10.5) and the Under (45.5)

GL to ALl

posted by redrascal

Oct. 8 2007 3:59pm

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Well as I try & never BET on my team there is one for U guys to look at tonight!!!

DALLAS has had a hell of a time scoring in the 1st Q of play and in first Half but 1st Q is a better play.

If you can & you like this bet on Buff. 1st Q as I could easily see Dallas looking ahead and possibly get caught. Also Tony plays better when ahead in a game than behind something to keep in mind at HALF time.

I will have no play on this game! Superstition or however you spell it!!!

Anyways good luck to all today.

NICE job NOOCHIE & once again Wash O 2nd half $$$ Yesterday THANKS!

Also this has been a topick of discussin all week at Dallas also about not being able to score much in the first half & how they know it will catch up to them if something doesn't change!

posted by scrilla719

Oct. 8 2007 4:08pm

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JT, AMEN Bro. ! Rule #1 - Don't chase your Sunday losers with a Monday Night Lock,that 's a BIG Favorite ! Preach on Brother JT preach on ! ! !

BeeSmart :wink:

posted by beesmart

Oct. 8 2007 4:15pm

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Another stat that relates to tonight's game I've been following last two years.

Play on a home dog of +3.5 or more when the total opens at 44+ (based on the openers I use, total was at 44). In 2006, this went 12-0, so far this year it's 3-1 (with first loss coming last week with Bengals on MNF).

A sub stat, play on home dog when total opens at 44+: 15-3 LY, 6-1 TY.

I could use this after yesterday.

GL.

PS - If you're reading this, I still hate you Kellen Winslow.

posted by teeks75

Oct. 8 2007 4:45pm

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This has nothing to do with my hatred for the Yanks...BUT i am leaning toward the Tribe at +210! I am being offered over double my money to take a team that has won 2 out of 3 over the past week!

Wang was pounded for eight runs, nine hits - including home runs by Victor Martinez and rookie Asdrubal Cabrera - and four walks in just 4 2-3 innings of a 12-3 loss in Game 1 on Thursday. And now he is coming back on 3 days rest? I may take a shot here....It is definitely something I am thinking about!

As for the football game, I am still up in the air. I'll be back in a few!

posted by thebigmessy

Oct. 8 2007 5:07pm

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Guys- thanks, I will live it up while it lasts.

Scrill- we hit that together. It didnt go as planned, but a fluke play helped make up for the fluke non-cover in Clev.

The more and more I look at this game, I'm pretty convinced that I will take the points. I really would like 11 though. I will wait for that...

I will tell you that there HAS to be a situtational statistic for this game that allows the linesmakers to throw 10 out there and have almost 90% of the pub jumping on Dall.

Something about teams that blow teams out by X amount, being in the + for turnover ratios v. teams that have been a (-) X amount per game the last 2 games, etc, etc etc...

Basically meaning that the point differential the last couple of games were dictated by a swing of about 4 TO's. The weaker team (Buff) worked all wk to eliminate these TO's, etc. Change the differential to 2 less TO's = within the points.

IT HAS TO BE OUT THERE!

Last year, I gave out the same situational play w TENN v. Philly. At the time, guys asked "Where the hell are you getting Tenn? They are horrible..." as Tenn was 2-7 at the time and Philly was in a must win situation. Well, Tenn ended up clobbering Philly.

I haven't studied this game enough yet to see if this is one of those situations but I'm sure there is something to the fact that the line didnt open at 11, 11.5, etc...

I might have time for a mini write up.

~ team favored playing outside of their conference, on the road, against an inferior team, right before a matchup v. an undefeated team...

~ Trent Edwards, as with most quickly inserted QB's, hasnt been scouted enough for DC's to pick up on tendencies (believe me, this is bigger than you think)

~ as mentioned above, BUFF, as hard as it is to imagine, has explosive skill players AND an EXPLOSIVE ST. Evans and Parrish can go to the house anytime they get their hands on the ball. Parrish plays ST (punts return), along with McGee (KO).

~speaking of McGee-- could you imagine a pick 6 to create a backdoor cover?

~ speaking of back door, anyone get the feeling that coach Phillips will pull starters in the 4th if they are up by 17, in order to rest guys for NE?

*** dont get me wrong, DALL could crush them by 42 tonight, especially when you realize that BUFF only has 4 sacks (btw, Dall only has 9) but, 4 sacks??? wow, anyways, as I was saying, I could be off by 40 points tonight and still play it the same way over and over and I bet I hit 7/10.

My advice-- just place your average wager on this game and watch it...nothing more, nothing less.

posted by thenooch

Oct. 8 2007 5:12pm

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TEEKS---there you go my man! Can you find one that relates to the angle I was blabbering about? There has to be something...

Anyways-- in chat, I believe it was when I was conversing with Patlean (sp) that I called that damn defensive TD for NE as soon as NE didnt convert the 4th down. I really wished they kicked a freaking FG.

I had that sick gut feeling also. I hate Winslow for that too...

"what an idiot!"

posted by thenooch

Oct. 8 2007 5:15pm

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88% as of 5:20 on dallas, buffalo could be the bet gl

posted by inthenegativ

Oct. 8 2007 5:18pm

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Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo !

Take the points tonight and watch how easy this cover will be.

The Bills pulled off a mild upset last week at home over the Jets, and now face their stiffest test yet on their home field in the Cowboys.

They played the Patriots two weeks ago, so they know what a prolific offense looks like. They didn't do a good job of stopping them, so what makes me think they will do a better job done?

Let's see. Home Monday night game for the first time in a long time. Cowboys a bit complacent. I can see it. The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog, and have covered six of their last seven at home.

They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, and are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. As for Dallas, I just don't like the way their offense matches up against the Buffalo front seven.

The Bills held the Jets to 60 yards rushing last week, and I expect Romo to make a few mistakes tonight. The Cowboys are due for a stinker, and the Bills are just the team to help them out. Bills OUTRIGHT tonight.

posted by morpheus

Oct. 8 2007 6:23pm

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Good advice nooch, this is not a chasin' game. Take who you like at your regular wage.

I lilke Dallas 1st half -6/.5 and Dallas -10 for the game. Will make 1/2 time adjustment if needed

Good luck brothers

goat-

posted by goat-

Oct. 8 2007 8:16pm

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:p : :l) :e) :9/} :ch :ty :fl :gr :5/} :2] :fe :2/} :si :lo :sh :sm :no :ro :ca :bu :ni :6/} :cr :al :lv :bo :el :ri :gi :ks :kt :cl :id :3/} :ta :hr :cry: :hookem: :bs: