28 replies
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dr bob
2 NFL Best Bets this week - 3-Stars on Pittsburgh and 2-Stars on Washington. My NFL math model predictions start this week and I will be sending those out, but there is an error in the programming so that will have to wait until later tonight or tomorrow to get fixed. Remember that the chance to cover is based solely on the math and is based on the historical predictability of my math model. Situational analysis is not included in the math chance to cover and there are often strong situations going against the side that the math favors so read my free analysis on my site to get my final analysis of each game. If the math is strongly in favor of a team and that team is not a Best Bet then there are probably situations going against them.
3 Star Selection
***PITTSBURGH (-5.5) 28 Seattle 14
10:00 AM Pacific, 07-Oct-07
Pittsburgh was in a bad situation last week in Arizona, but the Steelers will be ready to play this week at home against a good Seahawks squad. Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck has bounced back from an off year and has led his team to 5.7 yards per play despite a sub- par rushing attack (just 3.7 ypr), but the Seahawks’ +0.3 yppl offensive rating is not nearly as good as Pittsburgh’s defensive rating of 0.6 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). Pittsburgh’s offense and Seattle’s defense are both 0.2 yppl better than average but the Steelers have a pretty good edge in special teams and my math model favors the Steelers by 7 points. The reason for the play is a very good 77-25-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that applies to Pittsburgh. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points.
2 Star Selection
**WASHINGTON (-3.5) 30 Detroit 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 07-Oct-07
The Lions are coming off a big upset home win over division rival Chicago but that win sets them up in a negative 67-132-3 ATS road letdown situation this week and I certainly don’t mind fading the overrated Lions against a solid Washington team. The Lions have certainly been good offensively this season (6.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average team), but Detroit has allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average stop unit and I rate the Lions a bit below average after factoring in their bad special teams. Washington, meanwhile, is a better than average team with an average attack and a very good defense that’s yielded just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. In addition to the team trend against Detroit, the Redskins apply to a solid 227- 142-12 ATS statistical profile indicator. My ratings favor Washington by 5 points without top WR Santana Moss playing, so we have a bit of line value to go with the strong technical spot. I’ll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 points or less (at -115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion
NY GIANTS (-3.5) 27 NY Jets 17
10:00 AM Pacific, 07-Oct-07
The Giants’ defense has really stepped up their level of play the last 6 quarters, shutting out Washington in the second half of their week 3 come-from-behind win and then dominating the Eagles last Sunday night. After a horrible opening game against Dallas (45 points on 477 yards allowed at 8.8 yards per play) the Giants now rate at 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team), which gives them an edge over a Jets offense that has been just average with starting quarterback Chad Pennington under center. The Giants’ offense, which rates at 0.4 yppl better than average with Eli Manning on the field, has a huge edge over a Jets’ defense that has been 0.6 yppl worse than average so far this season (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl). New York defends the run well but the Jets have given up 7.8 yards per pass play to teams that would average a combined 6.1 yppp against an average defensive team. New York just gave up 7.3 yppp to Buffalo’s rookie quarterback Trent Edwards, who was making his first NFL start, so I expect Manning to have a very good game. My math model favor the Giants by 9 ½ points even without assigning them a home field advantage and I’ll consider the New York Giants a Strong Opinion at -4 or less and I’d take the Giants in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (at -115 odds or better).
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 6:42pm -
0 likes
ben burns
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***BIG TOTAL ALERT*** Burns AFC Total of the Year
SD/Denver UNDER 41
**BIG GAME ALERT** Burns Divisional Game of Year!
Chicago Bears (+3 or better)
Ben Burns EARLY Afternoon BLOWOUT
Redskins (-4 or better)
Ben Burns' 3-Game Executive Report (EARLY KICKOFF)
Rams (+3 or better)
49ers (+3 or better)..415pm eastern time start...is this correct since hes stating early kickoff
Seattle/Pitt UNDER 37 - Non Conf TOW
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:21pm -
0 likes
Dan Gordon early nfl
Bears +3 ½ or more over Packers: Small Play
Normally this would be a normal or even possibly a large play but since I have seen some bad things with the Bears, I am keeping this as a small play. For one thing, I really thought that the Bears would make a better showing last week off of a Sunday night nationally televised rout loss to the Cowboys. The Bears blew a ten point fourth quarter lead to the Lions and gave up a record 34 points in the fourth quarter of their 27-37 loss in that game. The Bears also have numerous key defensive players out.
However, what stands out this week and has gotten me to back the Bears is that they are a very legitimate must-win underdog this week. The Bears are defending NFC champs and for them to miss the playoffs this season would mark this season as a total disaster. Right now, the Bears are three games behind the Packers. A loss here not only would put them four games back but also would put them two games behind the Packers in the divisional records and make it almost impossible for them to win a tiebreaker and be pretty much out of the playoff running. Whatever effort the Bears have left in them will be given on Sunday night in Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Packers continue to win with an ancient Brett Favre not only playing way beyond himself, but doing so without any running game support. Evenutally, hopefully this week, this will catch up with the Packers.
In addition:
1) The Bears have covered five of their last six revenge games as underdogs (the Packers won the season finale in Chicago last year).
2) The Packers come from two straight emotional up games.
3) The Bears have won three straight in Green Bay.
4) The Bears are a fresh due up, while the Packers are a fresh due down. The Bears have revenge, number (power rating), coverage, and fatigue (Packers up last two) working in their favor in this clashing due combo.
Again, take +3 ½ as soon as you see it.
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:22pm -
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Computer Selections - had a great day last Sun. (34-20 so far this year) and they're free.
Sunday, October 7th, 2007
1:00 pm Arizona at St. Louis Arizona Cardinals - 3½
1:00 pm Atlanta at Tennessee Tennessee Titans - 8
1:00 pm Carolina at New Orleans New Orleans Saints - 3
1:00 pm Cleveland at New England New England Patriots - 16½
1:00 pm Detroit at Washington Detroit Lions + 3½
1:00 pm Jacksonville at Kansas City Jacksonville Jaguars - 2½
1:00 pm Miami at Houston Miami Dolphins + 5½
1:00 pm N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants New York Giants - 3½
1:00 pm Seattle at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Steelers - 6
4:05 pm Tampa Bay at Indianapolis Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 9½
4:15 pm Baltimore at San Francisco San Francisco 49ers + 3
4:15 pm San Diego at Denver Denver Broncos - 1
8:15 pm Chicago at Green Bay Green Bay Packers - 3
Monday, October 8th, 2007
8:30 pm Dallas at Buffalo Dallas Cowboys -10
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:22pm -
0 likes
Blazer 4* Greenbay 3* Ravens
Doc's 4* Tampa, 3* Baltimore
Gold 1 1/2 Chicago Over
1* Kansas City, Miami, Seattle Over & bosie st
Northcoast 3* Seattle Over
3* Ny giants, Baltimore,
Probability 4 unit teaser Pitts/Atlanta
3* Kansas city
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:28pm -
0 likes
Guaranteed
3*Washington
Joey Gaffney
8* Tampa Bay,
7* San Diego, Atlanta, Carolina & Under, Washington, pit/sea Over,
Feist---
Island source--Atlanta
Personal best--TBay
Platinum--Seattle
Inner Circle--Clev over 48.5
Pro Shocker goy--KC
Total--Seattle over 40
Special total---Yanks over 9.5
Gameday
2 Norl Wash Miami Sd
Cowtown
2 Houst
1 Carol Nyj
Inside Steam
2 Pitt Ariz
Preferred Picks
4 Atl
3 Stl Chic
Headquarters
5 Nyg Under
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:29pm -
0 likes
Sports Authority
3 Stl
2 Wash Neng
Gator
3 Neng
Pointwise Phones
3 Sd Wash Gb Kc
2 Balt Ne
Spritzer
main event....................bears
insider dog goy.............atl
ko...............................sd
tko..............................mia,sf
5 star hammer..................car
4 star hammer...................clev
5 star total.....................chic over 40.5
ko...............................la
heisman trophy 20 *
st. louis
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:30pm -
0 likes
Big Money
Houston
ASA--
Houston Over-- JETS --Skins
Lenny Stevens
20 Pitt Chic
10 Miami Nyj Sd
Goldsheet
Top-Chicago Over
Regular-Kansas City, Pittsburgh Over, Jets, and Boise State
North Coast Sports
Late Phone Selections
3.5* Over 40 Seattle/Pittsburgh
3* NY Giants -3.5 vs NY Jets
3* Baltimore -3.5 vs San Fran
Phil's Weekly NFL Plays
3.5* Green Bay -3
3* NY Giants -3.5
3* Atlanta +8
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:32pm -
0 likes
Hank Green
6* Over Pitt
6* G.b.
5* Jax
3* Pitt
3* Over San Fran
3* Houst
Magliosa
KC
Denv
Chic
DR. CHAD
5 unit////////////
Atlanta
Seattle
St. Louis
San Fransisco.
Sebastian
20* Wash, NO TB, Bears and Fish Teaser under Denver, and Jax
30* Giants
50* Giants over, Rams, Seattle
Docs Sports
4* TB +10
3* PITT -5.5
3* wash -3.5
3* GB -3
Dave Cokin
System Clev
Big shot Jets
Wind - Wash
Hat - Tenn
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:33pm -
0 likes
ppp
5% Washington
3% Carolina
3% Jacksonville
5% NYG/NYJ over
3% Sea/Pitts over
3% SD/Den over
SPYLOCK
1* Cards
5* kc
1* Houston
1* Giants
Kelso
ARIZONA -3.5
Red Dog Sports
4 Wash -3 (-120)
4 Pitt over 39
3 Jax/Kc over 36
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:34pm -
0 likes
Ben Burns' #1 CFB Sunday Game of the Month WINNER!
Sunday Night CFB Game of the Month
New Mexico State
__________________
mike lineback
Packers
MO Money--Teaser--Seattle/Indy *4 units XL Play
Teaser-- Tennessee/Jets over *2 units
*7 point tease*
Reply With Quote
Coach Meyer
Playbook-TB
Live Dog-Atl
Locker Room Report-Cleve
Coach's Consensus-Miami
Chalkboard-Chicago
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:35pm -
0 likes
Dave Malinsky
5* CLEVELAND/NY YANKEES Over
4* ANGELS over BOSTON
4* TAMPA BAY/INDIANAPOLIS Under
5* SEATTLE over PITTSBURGH
4* CLEVELAND/NEW ENGLAND Under
4* ATLANTA over TENNESSEE
Wolkosky Milan
154-103-7 last fifty days
1-5-1 Yesterday
Today:
10* RAMS +3½
10* REDSKINS -3½
10* DOLPHINS +5
10* RAVENS -3½
10* BROWNS +16½
10* CHIEFS +2
Free: CHARGERS +1
ALERT: Wolkosky has his rare 50* (11-1 so far) both side and total tonight (CHI/GB).
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:36pm -
0 likes
Rocketman Sports
45-18 71% last 63 NFL(7-2 +17.1 units yesterday)
Rocketman is now 45-18 71% his last 63 NFL plays after a perfect 2-0 sweep last week with Underdogs Cleveland and Arizona winning outright. Rocketman was 8-1 89% last year with his 5* NFL plays. 5* College Football play cashed easily yesterday with Virginia Tech.
We finished last years NFL season 38-12 last 17 weeks including 19-4 last 23 plays last season.
Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units
NFL
Seattle @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM EST
Play On: 5* Seattle +6 1/2
Seattle defense is only allowing 13.2 points per game overall and 13 points per game on the road this year. Seattle is 5-1 ATS overall vs Pittsburgh since 1992. Seattle is actually 6-1 ATS last 7 overall with Pittsburgh and 3-0 ATS last 3 at Pittsburgh. I expect a fairly low scoring game here with Seattle keeping it close. Holmgren is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against AFC North division opponents in all games he has coached since 1992. Seattle has won 4 of the past 5 meetings outright. Hasselbeck has won 5 of his last 6 starts against AFC opponents. We'll play Seattle for 5 units today!
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:40pm -
0 likes
Psychic Sports Picks Members Area
10/7
NFL
2 units San Diego +1
2 units Tampa Bay +9.5
2 units Tennessee -9
3 units Arizona -3.5
3 units Seattle +6
3 units New Orleans -3
5 units Miami +5.5
WISEGUY
NCAAF
2 units Boise -24
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:40pm -
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Sportsbook Guru
10 Units Jets +3 1/2
5 Units Lions +3 1/2
3 Units Seattle +6
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:41pm -
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Ats Lock Club~ Football
6 units on the Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) over the Seattle Seahawks, 1:00
6 units on the New Orleans Saints (-3) over the Carolina Panthers, 1:00
5 units on the Tampa Bay Bucs (+9 1/2) over the Indianapolis Colts, 4:00
5 units on the Ariozona Cardinals (-3) over the St Louis Rams, 1:00
Wayne Root
BILLIONAIRE GOY=JETS
No Limit = Bears
Big Al
Non Conference GOM-Jets
NFC North GOY-Bears
3*-Wash, St. Louis
Private Players Club
10 Dimes- Jack
Computer Boy-Chargers
Offshore Steam-Bears
Alex ~ Smart
PANTHERS +3.5
The Panthers and the Saints have looked very ineffective so far this season, and both these teams desperately need a win this week. The edge goes to the Panthers as I predict incumbent QB David Carr will take advantage of a very suspect Saints secondary that has given up an average of 239 passing yards per game. While on the flip side I expect the Panther defense staunchly stops , a New Orleans offense that has become easy to read. Final notes & Key Trends: Carolina is 6-0 ATS L/6 at New Orleans. Carolina is 9-0 L/9 ATS against a team off a SU/ATS loss. Play on the Panthers
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:42pm -
0 likes
Ats Lock Club~ Football
6 units on the Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) over the Seattle Seahawks, 1:00
6 units on the New Orleans Saints (-3) over the Carolina Panthers, 1:00
5 units on the Tampa Bay Bucs (+9 1/2) over the Indianapolis Colts, 4:00
5 units on the Ariozona Cardinals (-3) over the St Louis Rams, 1:00
Wayne Root
BILLIONAIRE GOY=JETS
No Limit = Bears
Big Al
Non Conference GOM-Jets
NFC North GOY-Bears
3*-Wash, St. Louis
Private Players Club
10 Dimes- Jack
Computer Boy-Chargers
Offshore Steam-Bears
Alex ~ Smart
PANTHERS +3.5
The Panthers and the Saints have looked very ineffective so far this season, and both these teams desperately need a win this week. The edge goes to the Panthers as I predict incumbent QB David Carr will take advantage of a very suspect Saints secondary that has given up an average of 239 passing yards per game. While on the flip side I expect the Panther defense staunchly stops , a New Orleans offense that has become easy to read. Final notes & Key Trends: Carolina is 6-0 ATS L/6 at New Orleans. Carolina is 9-0 L/9 ATS against a team off a SU/ATS loss. Play on the Panthers
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:42pm -
0 likes
these guys been on a tare all week .so far everything they put out is golden
CORLEONE BROTHERS SUNDAY PICKS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jacksonville Jaguars -2 -110 for Game
Miami Dolphins +4½ -110 for Game
Seattle Seahawks +5 -110 for Game
New York Jets +4 -110 for Game
Jacksonville Jaguars -½ -105 for 1st Half
Miami Dolphins +3 -110 for 1st Half
Seattle Seahawks +3 -110 for 1st Half
New York Jets +2½ +100 for 1st Half
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:43pm -
0 likes
Score
400 Pitt
300 Nyj Balt
insider-picks ;
10* den under
10* chicago +3.5
7* Rams +3.5
7* Jets +3.5
7* Jets over
7* Seattle +6.5
Ness
20 Nfc Goy Wash
CEASAR SPORTS REPORT FOR 10/07/07
NCAA FOOTBALL
1* BOISE ST-UNDER
NFL FOOTBALL
3* GREEN BAY
2* WASHINGTON
1* SEATTLE
COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD: 21-20-1, -10 UNITS
NFL RECORD: 13-7-1, +4 UNITS
_________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:45pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
Playbook
NFL
5* Chicago over Green Bay 14
4* Baltimore over San Francisco by by 13
3* St. Louis over Arizona by 8
NFL TOTALS
5* Under Dolphins-Texans
4* Over Seahawks-Steelers
3* Under Bucs-Colts
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:45pm -
0 likes
Underdog
Kansas City (lock)
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:46pm -
0 likes
Score
400 Pitt
300 Jets
300 Baltimore
Mike Neri
3* Pitt
3* Tampa bay
3* Baltimore
3* Seattle Over
JB Sports
3* New Orleans
3* Jets
3* Chicago
3* Baltimore Under
Larry Ness
20* NFC GOY-Washington
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:48pm -
0 likes
Billy Coleman
5 * GOM Baltimore - 3.5
3.5 * Wash under 45 1/2
3 * SD pk
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:48pm -
0 likes
1 HOUR BEFORE KICK OFF UPDATE
NO 70% OVER 69%
JAX 52 OVER 56
WASH 52 OVER 56
TEN 61 OVER 73
HOU 61 UN 55
PIT 55 OVER 84
NE 56 OVER 71
ARI 69 OVER 73
NYG 77 OVER 73
IND 52 OVER 64
SD 66 OVER 65
BAL 73 UNDER 55
GB 72 OVER 68
DAL 84 OVER 72
BIG CHANGE IN LAST 5 HOURS OF BETTING
BAL WAS 53 OVER NOW 55% UNDER
DET WAS 51% NOW WASH 53%
NO OVER WAS 58% NOW 69% OVER
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:53pm -
0 likes
1. Ats 6 6-pitt, No, 5-tb, Ariz
2. Bankers 500-den, 300-stl
3. Ben Burns Chi, Wash, Sd Under, Stl, Sf, Pitt Under / N Mex St
4. Big Money 1 Hou
5. Blazer 4-gb, 4-balt
6. Carolina Sports 4-atl, 3-jax, Wash, Clev, Nyj
7. Doc Enterprises 4-tb, 3-pitt, Wash, Gb
8. Dr. Bob 3-pitt, 2-wash / Op: Boise
9. Gameday 4t 2-no, Wash, Mia, Sd
10. Inside Info 2-pitt, Ariz
11. Joe D 2 20-gb, 15-wash
12. Lenny Stevens 20-pitt, Chi, 10-mia, Jets, Sd
13. Lt Profits 7 2-stl, Clev Under, Tb Under
14. Nationwide (goldst) Top: Gb Over, Reg: Kc, Jets, Pitt Over / Reg: Boise
15. Neri 3-pitt, Tamp, Balt, Seat Over / 3-boise
16. Northcoast 3'-pitt Over, 3-nyg, Balt
17. Pointwise 4t 3-sd, Wash, Gb, Kc, 2-balt, Ne
18. Preferred Picks 4-atl, 3-st Louis, Chi
19. Private Players 5-wash, Jets Over, 3-jax, Caro, Pitt Over, Den Over
20. Score 8 400-pitt, 300-jets, Balt
21. Underdog 3 Ks
22. Pure Lock Indy
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:58pm -
0 likes
Krunch's Sunday National Fixed League FADES
Play these teams
Lions +3 1/2; Got 25-6 on the Skins
Seattle-Steelers under; Got 14-2 services on the over. Fading Jim Rich
Patriots -16 1/2 opinion play only; Got 14-6 on the Browns
Texans -5; Got 17-6 on the Fish
Seahawks +6 opinion play only; Got 20-13 services on the Steelers
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:58pm -
0 likes
Greg Roberts
5* Nfl Gom Wash -3'
Asa
4 Nyjets
3 Wash Houst Over
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:59pm -
0 likes
HSW
2* Atlanta
900 Promo
Washington
Seattle
GD West
1* Seattle
1* Atlanta
posted by phantom
Oct. 7 2007 12:59pm