CFB WEEK6 SERVICE PLAYS
Ryan's 5* SEC Monster Play of the week - 67% ATS
Ryan has hit 67% ATS over the past 3 seasons with his 5* MONSTER plays and his two best conferences have been the Pac-10 and the SEC. Here is his SEC 5* MONSTER Play of the Week. This play is backed by Ryan's extensive research featuring an incredible system and an 8-1 ATS angle.
Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan
Game: Kentucky at South Carolina Oct 4 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: Kentucky
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Kentucky – AiS shows an 82% probability that Kentucky will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Let's first look at one of the dominant factors in this game. The Kentucky rushing game will be the reason that Kentucky covers and may win the game as well. The projections call for them to rush for at least 100 yards in this game and note that Kentucky is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last 3 seasons. Plus, Kentucky is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. South Carolina has a strong offense featuring Spurrier's pass happy schemes. Kentucky's ability to run the ball keeps the SC offense off the field and keeps the SC defense fresh. Kentucky is 5-0 and 4-0 ATS and they are coming off a big win against an inferior opponent in Florida Atlantic. Note that Kentucky is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after a win by 17 or more points since 1992. During HC Brook's tenure the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS after a win by 17 or more points. Supporting this DOG is a money line system that has gone 28-8 and has made 17.5 units since 2002. Play against any team after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games. Take Kentucky
posted by phantom
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UNDERDOG SPORTS
NCAAF Kentucky vs. South Carolina
Take Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky has not lost a game this year and are ranked 14th in offense. Take the Wildcats for the underdog free play of the week.
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:46pm -
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Tim Sullivan
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Worst week he ever had was last week
SO. CAROLINA (-31/2) over Kentucky: The Wildcats may have the better team, but Steve Spurrier on a national stage at home with a small number is too good to pass up.
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posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:46pm -
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Pointwise ~ Newsletter Play
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KENTUCKY over South Carolina RATING: 4
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posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:46pm -
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Sportsbook
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In their last 8 games as favorites, South Carolina is an impressive 7-1 against the spread (ATS). The last 15 times these teams squared off, South Carolina is 10-5 both ATS and straight up. Kentucky's Andre Woodson will face his toughest test yet as he faces a South Carolina defense that yields a ridiculously low 106.4 passing yards per game. Given the data above, it is surprising that only 47% of the early bettors are backing South Carolina (-3.5).
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posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:47pm -
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KM's SHEET
Kentucky (+3.5) 1*
CF 21 wins 27 losses -6.2 UNITS YTD
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:47pm -
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Ats Financial Package
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Under 58...SC/KY............3 Units
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posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:48pm -
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Dave Malinsky
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Your pick will be graded at: -3.5
REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTH CAROLINA over KENTUCKY
We certainly tip our caps to what Rich Brooks has been able to do at Kentucky, turning around what had truly been a moribund program. But now the marketplace is giving them too much credit, and that gives us the ability to take advantage of the excellent matchups to the Gamecocks in this one.
First let’s address the market, and the best way to do so is to establish a historical perspective. This will be the third meeting between these programs since Steve Spurrier came to Columbia, with South Carolina winning 44-16 as -12.5 on this field two years ago, and then 24-17 as -4.5 at Lexington last October. We remember both games because we had the Gamecocks as 4* plays each time, and note that LY’s win was easier than the final score would suggest – Carolina led 10-0 at halftime, and 24-10 before a late back-door score was allowed, with the line of scrimmage being dominated to the tune of 190-62 in rushing yards. And of extreme importance was how the Gamecock defense shut down Andre Woodson & Co. on their own field.
Kentucky scored two TD’s in that loss, the first coming when the Wildcats were down 17-0 in the third quarter, and Brooks rolled the dice successfully on a fake punt after another drive had stalled. The other came when they were down 24-7 with less than three minutes remaining, getting set up by a 63-yard pass. It does not get any easier this time, especially in front of a rabid crowd at night, and facing a veteran South Carolina secondary that will have several players eventually playing on Sunday’s. The Gamecocks rate #2 in the nation in pass efficiency defense so far this season, second only to LSU, and through three SEC games they are allowing only 42.4 percent completions and an outstanding 4.5 yards per pass attempt, with more interceptions than TD passes allowed. There is so much quality depth that seven different players have started at least one game so far, and there is perhaps no better compliment than the one given to them by Carolina WR Kenny McKinley - â€I go versus them (in practice) and I’m like, ‘Man, no other team can be this strong.’â€
If you take away the strength of Kentucky, which is Woodson and the passing game, this is still a team that is nothing special. The Wildcats had exciting rallies to beat Louisville and Arkansas, but in those games they were out-gained each time, with the defense allowing 467 yards to the Razorbacks and 495 to the Razorbacks. Even Kent State was able to pile up 463, with four turnovers keeping the Golden Flashes from getting more points on the board. This is an average team that has a couple of great skill players, and has gone +7 in turnover ratio so far. They are not good enough to beat this class of SEC opponent on the road.
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:48pm -
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Brandon.lang
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10 DIME
Kentucky
Kentucky/S.Carolina UNDER
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:49pm -
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Rocketman comp
South Carolina -3.5
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:49pm -
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ATS Lock Club
4 units on South Carolina (-3 1/2) over Kentucky, 7:45
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:49pm -
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Wayne Root has;
Chairman - Gamecocks
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:50pm -
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Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: Kentucky at South Carolina Oct 4 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: South Carolina
Reason: Play on South Carolina at 7:45 ET. Spurrier versus Brooks is an all-time coaching mismatch on the sidelines. Spurrier is much more than just an avowed "offensive genius." He knows and understands his team's strengths and weaknesses. Spurrier knows he does not have a QB or the playmakers at the WR positions (the Gamecocks really miss Sidney Rice!) for his Fun 'N Gun offense to work. So what has he done in '07? Spurrier is relying on two excellent RBs, Cory Boyd (330 YR / 4.9 ypc) and Mike Davis (321 YR / 5.2 ypc), to pound the ball. He's playing more of a field position game these days, hoping for longer drives which will 'eat' up the clock (long drives will help keep Kentucky QB Andre' Woodson off the field in this game). Woodson is a wonderful QB (16 TD passes and just one interception) but Spurrier has an outstanding defense. It ranks 26th in overall yards allowed (307.6), 16th in points allowed (15.6) and is SECOND in the passing efficiency rantings (just 46.2 % with only two TDPs and six INTs). Kudos go out to Kentucky which has been one heckuva team since losing 49-0 at LSU last year, going 10-1 SU and 9-1 ATS. The school's No. 8 ranking in the latest AP poll is its highest since 1997 but the Wildcats have lost seven straight to the Gamecocks and have never beaten a Spurrier-coached team (0-14!). That WON'T change here. South Carolina is my 20* SEC Game of the Month.
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:50pm -
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Wunderdog
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Game: Kentucky at South Carolina (Thursday 10/04 7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: South Carolina -4
It has been quite a story in Lexington. The football team is getting some attention usually reserved for basketball. The Wildcats have gotten off to a 5-0 start, and it is an explosive offense that has set the pace. Andre Woodson has been nearly perfect throwing for 1,309 yards with 13 TDs and just one interception. Tonight they face a team that has absolutely dominated them, and will be bringing the No. 1 ranked pass defense into the mix. Steve Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky in 17 games, and he has the right mindset to stop a competent offense and that is his veteran defense with 10 of 11 starters back from last year and 17 of its 18 top tacklers. That defense has allowed just 106 yards in the air per game. The Gamecocks have won seven straight over UK. Last year, the Kentucky offense did much the same, but even with that, they were still out-gained by nearly 80 yards per game. The soft part of the schedule is over now. Last year they opened 3-2 on their way to an eight-win season. The problem was the tougher defenses. They managed 12 points at Tennessee, none at LSU, only seven at Florida and 17 at home against SC. They averaged 35-points per game (PPG) against everyone else. South Carolina has their best team in several years, and playing at home with the nations top pass defense. We will ride them here.
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:51pm -
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PPP
Gavozzi -- S Carolina 2*opinion
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:51pm -
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LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) POWER PLAY: KENTUCKY vs SOUTH CAROLINA
Play: POWER PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA -3 ( ALWAYS BUY THE HOOK)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) POWER PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA -3 (ALWAYS BUY THE HOOK). Dont be fooled by all the hype surrounding Kentucky. How have we won for you the last two nights going against the public? It was simply a matter of looking at the level of competition each side has faced and as we look closer, all these SEC leading statistics have been against teams that shouldn't be in their class or teams that have been struggling. The Kentucky Wildcats lead the SEC in scoring this season and are second in passing yards yet they accumulated those great numbers against FAU, which is a notch above a community college in S. Florida. They faced a struggling Louisville team who was cruising on last year's success on the perception they were any good this year. Lets add powerhouses like Kent state, and Eastern Kentucky that UK has gained this reputation as an offensive powerhouse against. If Kentucky gets one stamp of approval you could give it to them for the Arkansas win. Now on the other side of the coin we have South Carolina who has faced #1 LSU, Mississippi state and Georgia. With that on their plate, South Carolina Gamecocks leads the nation in pass defense which means trouble for Kentucky as the pass is Kentucky's primary weapon, South Carolina are second in the conference in yards allowed. Spurrier is 14-0 vs. Kentucky. QB Andre Woodson has never beaten South Carolina. SC will be starting freshmen quarterback Chris Smelley in place of fifth-year senior Blake Mitchell. Smelley did a good job stepping up with 279 yards and two touchdown passes against the Bulldogs’ 48th-ranked pass defense with a 38-21 win. Look for Kentucky to finally see a defense that will be up to the level of competition and we expect a comfortable ATS win. The line is in that gray area between the 3 and 4 so put up the extra 10% and buy the hook as an insurance policy and secure your wager for tonight.
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:51pm -
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Dr. CHAD
15-2-1
CFB Kentucky
CFB Kentucky OVER
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:51pm -
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Rocky Atkinson
Kentucky @ South Carolina 7:45 PM EST
Play On: 1* South Carolina -3 1/2
My ole Gamecocks are doing what I thought they were going to do. Hopefully all of you read my article and got down on the Over 7 regular season wins as my futures play in CFB this year. Steve Spurrier is one of the greatest CFB Coaches ever in my opinion. He sucked in the NFL but I'm glad he came to South Carolina. They now face a #8 ranked undefeated Kentucky Wildcat team with an awesome quarterback. I feel like they will be some points scored in this one but Spurrier will find a way to win it. Kentucky is 3-11 ATS since 1992 as a road underdog of 3 1/2 to 7 points. Sure, Kentucky can put up some offensive numbers but let's look at South Carolina this year. South Carolina is scoring 34.7 ppg at home this year. South Carolina is allowing only 15.6 ppg overall this year and 12.7 ppg at home this season. South Carolina has already faced the #1 team in the nation in LSU and held their own against them for a majority of the game. South Carolina is 2-0 SU and ATS overall vs Kentucky last 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on South Carolina tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:52pm -
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NORTHCOAST
Marquee : South Carolina -4
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:52pm -
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Wolkosky Milan
10* KENTUCKY +4
10* KY/SC UNDER 57½
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:52pm -
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Will Cover
SOUTH CAROLINA minus vs Kentucky 7:30pm EST ESPN
COVER STORY: It's great to see Kentucky football back on the map with their 5-0 start, but all good things must come to an end and that happens tonight in Columbia vs the 'Cocks. The Wildcat QB Woodson is a Heisman Trophy candidate, but he has yet to face a defense like this USC edition which returns 10 starters from last year and is especially strong in the secondary. SC has also played a much tougher schedule, beating Georgia on the road and holding its own versus #1 ranked LSU in Baton Rouge. 'Cats do have revenge from last years' home loss (17-24), but are just 3-7 ATS last ten in this series. South Caro is 4-1 SU this year and have won their three home games by an average of 14 PPG. The "Old Ball Coach" is a perfect 14-0 SU in his career vs Kentucky, 5-2 ATS last seven as home favs, and he'll bag #15 both SU and ATS behind a run game that will gash a suspect Wildcat defensive front
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:53pm -
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Ceasar Sports Report For 10/04/07
Ncaa Football
1* Kentucky & Under
College Football Record: 20-14-1, -1 Units
Nfl Record: 13-7-1, +4 Units
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posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 5:53pm -
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he just released his plays.............
DR.
7 Best Bets and 9 Strong Opinions.
Rotation #388 UCLA (-20 1/2) 4-Stars at -21 or less, 3-Stars from -21 1/2 to -24, 2- Stars from -24 1/2 to -26.
Rotation #355 Nebraska (+7) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 2-Stars from +6 1/2 to +6.
Rotation # 361 Georgia (+1) 3-Stars at pick or dog, 2-Stars from -1 to -2.
Rotation #377 Georgia Tech (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -3 1/2 or -4.
Rotation #383 Florida (+7 1/2) 3-Stars at +7 1/2 or more, 2-Stars from +7 to +6.
Rotation #320 Michigan State (-14 1/2) 2-Stars at -16 or less, 3-Stars at -14 or less.
Rotation #371 Arizona (+4) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
4 Star Selection
****UCLA (-20.5) 39 Notre Dame 6
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
UCLA should have won last year’s game against the Irish in South Bend and I doubt that the Bruins will feel sorry for Notre Dame today in a complete mismatch. The Irish finally mustered some offense last week against a sub-par Purdue defense but Notre Dame’s offense has been buried by teams that can put pressure on the quarterback and UCLA can certainly do that. For the season the Irish attack (if you can call it that) has averaged a pathetic 3.3 yards per play and UCLA’s solid defensive unit (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) will bring the heat with sack specialist Bruce Davis (16 sacks since last season) and a slew of other blitzing defenders. My math model projects just 3.5 yppl for Notre Dame in this game and that’s with the more effective Evan Sharpley at quarterback for injured freshman Jimmy Clausen (who may actually play, making it even worse for the Irish attack). Notre Dame does have a solid defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) but UCLA is even better offensively, averaging 5.7 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average attack. That unit will be blessed with good field position given to them by their defense and superior special teams and my math model favors the Bruins by 28 points in this game. In addition to the line value UCLA applies to a very strong 93-29-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Bruins play their best football at home, where they are 18-7-2 ATS under coach Dorrell (2-0 ATS this year). I’ll take UCLA in a 4-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 3-Stars from -21 ½ to -24 points and for 2-Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia Tech (-2.5) 27 MARYLAND 16
09:00 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Both of these teams are coming off upset wins but it’s Maryland that applies to a negative 13-40 ATS letdown situation while Georgia Tech applies to a very strong 73-25 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The match-up certainly does favor the Yellow Jackets, as their duo of star running backs Tashard Choice and Jonathan Dwyer (combined to run for 762 yards at 5.8 ypr and 11 touchdowns) will move the chains all day long against a Maryland defense that gas allowed 5.2 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average defense). The Terrapins do defend the pass well but Georgia Tech won’t have to throw too often in this one and Maryland isn’t likely to move the ball by land or by air against a good Yellow Jackets defense that rates at 0.8 yards per play better than average. Georgia Tech is particularly good defending the run (3.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), so I don’t expect Maryland’s run heavy attack (60% running plays but just average running the ball) to perform very well in this game. Maryland’s backup quarterback Chris Turner came off the bench last week for an injured Jordan Steffy and played well against Rutgers but I doubt that Turner is much better (if at all better) than Steffy and Maryland’s pass attack is normally very poor. Georgia Tech should also win the battle of field position in this game, as their special teams rate as one of the best in the nation. Overall, my math model favors the Yellow Jackets by 9 points in this game and the technical analysis favors them as well. I’ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and I’ll make them a 2-Star at -3 ½ or -4 points.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia 34 TENNESSEE (-1.0) 24
12:30 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Tennessee has no right being favored in this game. The Volunteers have been beaten soundly by the only two good teams that they’ve faced, losing by 14 points at Cal and by 39 points at Florida and playing this game at home is not going to help. Tennessee has a history of playing poorly against good conference foes in Knoxville under coach Fulmer, as the Vols are only 8-23-1 ATS in his tenure when hosting a conference foe with a win percentage of .666 or higher, including 5-21 ATS when not getting at least 3 points (0- 13 ATS since 2001). Even having last week off isn’t going to help Fulmer, as he’s 0-9 ATS in that role after a bye week. Georgia coach Mark Richt, meanwhile, has a habit of beating good teams on the road and his Bulldogs are now 16-5 ATS on the road when not laying 10 points or more, including a straight up win at Alabama a few weeks ago. Georgia is also a much better team than Tennessee. The Bulldogs haven’t been great offensively this season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) but Tennessee has been a disaster on defense (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and they’ve been 0.5 yppl worse than average or worse defensively in all 4 of their games this season (compensating for strength of opposing offenses, of course). Aside from Cal and Florida averaging a combined 8.0 yppl the Vols also gave up 5.4 yppl at home to Southern Miss and Arkansas State, who would combine to average only 4.8 yppl on the road against an average defensive team. Tennessee does have a better than average offensive unit (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and they are a bit better than that now that Eric Ainge has a healthy throwing hand (his broken pinky finger made it tough for him to throw down the field in the first couple of games), but Georgia’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average and has the advantage in that match-up. My math model favors Georgia by 8 ½ points even after adjusting Ainge’s passing numbers to last year’s level and I’ll take Georgia in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog or pick and for 2-Stars from -1 to -2 points.
3 Star Selection
***Florida 25 LSU (-7.5) 24
05:25 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Florida was caught looking ahead to this game and the Gators paid for that by losing to Auburn. However, that upset loss sets the Gators up in a very strong 61-10 ATS situation that has been very good to me over the years. LSU, meanwhile, applies to a negative 29- 67-1 ATS situation and I certainly don’t mind taking the extra points that is the result of last week’s result. Florida certainly didn’t play that poorly last week, as they out- gained Auburn 5.7 yards per play to 4.7 yppl, which is actually 1.6 yppl better than average after compensating for level of opponent and site. LSU, meanwhile, only out- gained Tulane 5.6 yppl to 3.5 yppl, which is only 0.6 yppl better than average when factoring in that Tulane would be out-gained by 1.5 yppl at home against an average team. So LSU actually played worse last week than Florida, so the extra point we’re getting this week is a bit of a gift. LSU has been struggling offensively with Matt Flynn at quarterback, as the Tigers have been only 0.5 yppl better than average with Flynn under center (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense). Florida’s defense has only been 0.4 yppl better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense), so LSU’s attack with Flynn at quarterback has only a 0.1 yppl edge over Florida’s defense. LSU’s defense has been incredible in allowing just 2.9 yppl in 5 games (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average stop unit), but Florida has been 2.0 yppl better than average offensively this season (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), so the Tigers also have just a 0.1 yppl advantage over the Gators’ offense. These teams are very close from a yards per play perspective and my math model only favors LSU by 5 ½ points here in Baton Rouge. With a strong situation and line value on our side I’ll take Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars from +7 to +6 points.
3 Star Selection
***Nebraska 38 MISSOURI (-7.0) 37
06:15 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
I was surprised that Missouri was favored by so much over a good Nebraska team. I realize that Nebraska’s defense has come into question in recent weeks after getting run over by USC and then allowing Ball State to rack up 610 yards at 40 points the next week, but Nebraska’s defense is actually better than Missouri’s defense and both teams are pretty close offensively. Nebraska has allowed 5.4 yards per play for the season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so their defense really isn’t as bad as it looked in those two games. Missouri’s defense, however, has played worse than average in all 4 of their games this season (relative to who and where they were playing) and the Tigers have allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Missouri is slightly better offensively (1.0 yppl better than average compared to Nebraska’s +0.8 yppl offensive rating) but these two teams are about the same from a compensated yards per play basis and Nebraska has the edge in special teams while Missouri has a 1.7 points edge in projected turnovers. Overall, my math model favors Nebraska by 1 ½ points and the Cornhuskers apply to a decent 61-29-1 ATS situation that is based on their recent pointspread failures. I’ll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points (strong opinion at +5 ½ or +5 points.
2 Star Selection
**MICHIGAN ST. (-14.5) 40 Northwestern 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Northwestern was in a good situation last week against an overrated Michigan team and the Wildcats covered the spread in a 16-28 home loss. Competing on the road against a good Michigan State team is another story and Northwestern looks overmatched in this game. The Wildcats have averaged just 5.0 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and that unit will struggle against a solid Spartans’ defense that has been 0.4 yppl better than average this season (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). There is an equally decisive mismatch on the other side of the ball, as Michigan State’s balanced attack has been 0.5 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) is likely to move the ball consistently against a Wildcats’ defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). Northwestern is particularly bad defending the pass (7.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppp), so Spartans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer should have no trouble moving the chains on 3rd down if his good running backs Ringer (544 yards at 6.0 ypr) and Caulcrick (373 yards at 4.5 ypr) don’t take care of business on 1st and 2nd down. My math model projects a 500 yards to 298 yards advantage for Michigan State and that should result in a win of 20 points or more. I’ll take Michigan State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**Arizona 31 OREGON ST. (-4.0) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Arizona’s new pass-heavy Texas Tech style offense has struggled a bit against teams with good pass defenses (BYU and Cal), but quarterback Willie Tuitama torched a mediocre New Mexico pass defense 3 weeks ago (8.2 yards per pass play) and averaged 11.2 yppp in last week’s win over Washington State. Arizona matches up very well with an Oregon State defense that is one of the best in the nation at defending the run (3.0 yards per rushing play allowed) while rating at 0.5 yppp worse than average against the pass. The Beavers’ excellent run defense is really going to do them no good against a team that doesn’t care about the running the ball and I expect the Wildcats to move the ball well in this game. Oregon State’s offense will have a tough time keeping up with star WR Sammie Straughter now sidelined indefinitely with a kidney injury after carrying the offense for two weeks. Straughter was one of the best receivers in the nation last season (1293 yards at 17.5 ypc) and Oregon State’s inexperienced quarterbacks struggled the first two games with Straughter sitting out for personal reasons. Straughter returned to the starting lineup for weeks 3 and 4 and Oregon State’s offense totaled 1121 yards and 93 points in those two games, including racking up 514 yards at 6.4 yards per play against a very good Arizona State defense. Straughter caught 15 passes for 262 yards (17.5 ypc) in those two games but he sat out last week and the Beavers’ pass attack went with him (just 3.1 yppp against UCLA). Oregon State is about average in pass offense for the season, but the Beavers are 1.3 yppp worse than average in 3 games without Straughter (4.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average team). I actually rate OSU quarterback Sean Canfield at 0.5 yppp worse than average without Straughter and Canfield continues to throw interceptions at a high rate (11 on 163 passes while backup Moevao has thrown 4 picks). Oregon State’s rushing attack is just barely better than average (5.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and the Beavers are a below average offensive team overall. Oregon State’s only offensive weapon is running back Yvenson Bernard, but Bernard has averaged a sub-par 4.5 ypr in his career (4.6 ypr this season) and Arizona is a good defending the run (3.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team). Overall Arizona rates at 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, so they have an advantage over the OSU attack. Arizona is the better team and I’ll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (strong opinion from +1 to 2 ½).
Strong Opinion
Utah 26 LOUISVILLE (-14.5) 35
05:00 PM Pacific, 05-Oct-07
Louisville is a tough team to figure, as their defense can’t possibly be as bad as it was against Middle Tennessee State and Syracuse, who are two bad offensive teams that combined to average 40 points and 9.2 yards per play. Louisville has actually played better defensively when focused by the threat of a decent opponent, as they limited Kentucky to 5.8 yppl and held NC State to 5.3 yppl last week. Utah is certainly a team that Louisville has to take seriously even though the Utes have struggled offensively this season so far (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). The return of starting quarterback Brian Johnson to the starting lineup last week didn’t help, as the Utes managed just 5.2 yppl against a Utah State defense that would allow 6.6 yppl on the road to an average team. Utah certainly is capable of a good offensive game given their 5.5 yppl and 44 points they racked up on a good UCLA defense a few weeks ago. Utah does have a solid defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team), so they should slow down the potent Louisville attack (7.4 yppl) a bit. This game really depends on which Louisville defense shows up – the horrible unit that couldn’t stop Middle Tennessee or Syracuse or the unit that played at a decent level against Kentucky and NC State. If Louisville plays defensively at the level they played against the two teams that had to take seriously then my math model would favor the Cardinals by 14 ½ points, but the predicted margin would be considerably less if I use all 5 of Louisville’s games to get their defensive rating. At Louisville’s defensive best the Cardinals still don’t appear to have more than a 50% chance of covering and I’ll favor Utah plus the points.
Strong Opinion
AUBURN (-7.5) 28 Vanderbilt 14
09:30 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Auburn is coming off a huge upset win over Florida and you might think that the Tigers would be due for a letdown. That’s what I thought might be the case too until I looked up how home favorites perform after winning straight up as a double- road underdog. As it turns out teams in that situation are good bets and Auburn applies to a 36-6 ATS subset of a situation based on the premise. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is playing their first road game after 4 home games and the Commodores apply to a negative 23-57-3 ATS situation that plays against road teams after playing 4 or more consecutive home games. Auburn has struggled offensively this season so far (4.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) but quarterback Brandon Cox has proven the last two years that he’s certainly capable of playing better. Vanderbilt does have a solid defense but the Commodores’ offense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season (0.2 yppl worse than average with Chris Nickson under center) and Auburn’s defense has allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive unit. The loss of DE Quentin Groves is worth 1.5 points based on my analysis but my math model still favors Auburn by 10 points and the situation is favorable. The only negative is Vanderbilt’s 11-2 ATS mark as a road underdog the previous 3 seasons, but I’ll consider Auburn a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less and I’d take Auburn in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Arizona St. (-8.0) 37 WASHINGTON ST. 23
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
I rated Arizona State as the 6th best team in the nation before the season started and the Sun Devils have not disappointed so far. ASU is 0.8 yards per play better than average on offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Sun Devils are 1.2 yppl better than average defensively – allowing just 4.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Washington State is a decent team, rating at 0.6 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense, but they are not likely to keep this game within single s. I’ll consider Arizona State a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less and I’d take ASU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Fresno St. 26 NEVADA (-3.5) 24
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Nevada is a perfect 12-0 ATS as a home favorite under coach Ault while Fresno State is only 5-17 ATS in conference road games against teams with a win percentage of .400 or better in 11 seasons under coach Pat Hill. Those are the only things keeping me making Fresno a solid Best Bet, as the Bulldogs appear to be a much better team than Nevada. Nevada’s offense is certainly good, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, but Fresno has given up just 4.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. The Bulldogs held Texas A&M to 4.5 yppl (the Aggies would average 5.7 yppl at home against an average team) and they limited a great Oregon offense to 6.6 yppl, which is good considering that the Ducks would average 7.2 yppl at home against an average defense. Nevada has been great offensively the last 3 weeks against bad defensive teams but the Wolf Pack were held to 185 yards at 3.6 yppl by a mediocre Nebraska defense in week 1 and they could have trouble against Fresno’s good defense too. Fresno State’s offense rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average but Nevada is 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense and has allowed an average of 271 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play in 4 games against teams that would average only 4.1 yprp against an average defensive team. Fresno would love to establish the run and they should be able to in this game. My math model favors Fresno State by 8 ½ points but I decided to use only Nevada’s home game stats since they are so much better at home than they’ve been on the road under coach Ault. Using only Nevada’s home games would still result in the math favoring Fresno by 2 ½ points and I’ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more despite the negative team trends.
Strong Opinion
Virginia Tech 20 CLEMSON (-5.5) 21
03:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Virginia Tech was expected to be one of the top-10 teams in the nation but their offense has held them back and the Hokies are having a tough time scoring despite great field position bestowed upon them by their defense and special teams. Virginia Tech has averaged only 4.6 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the attack hasn’t gotten any better in 3 games with freshman Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Clemson has a good defense (4.4 yppl allowed) but the Tigers can be run against (4.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp) and Virginia Tech has a decent rushing attack now that Taylor is adding good yardage from the quarterback position (24 runs for 192 yards). The Hokies’ defense had one horrible game against LSU (599 yards at 8.3 yppl) but they’ve played very well in every other game and held a good North Carolina attack to just 4.4 yppl and 10 points last week. Clemson has a good offense (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but Virginia Tech’s defense is even better, so the Hokies can stay competitive in this game with defense and their great special teams. How good are the Virginia Tech special teams? The Hokies have been out-gained 286 yards at 4.6 yppl to 312 yards at 4.6 yppl and are -1 in turnovers yet they’ve out-scored their opponents by 7.6 points per game thanks to their special teams. Clemson has horrible special teams and I expect at least one big special teams play by the Hokies in this game. With last week’s upset loss at Georgia Tech Clemson is now just 11-25-1 ATS as a conference favorite under coach Bowden, including 4-17-1 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of .400 or higher. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, applies to a 54-10 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. Clemson is a much better team from the line of scrimmage but my math model favors the Tigers by just 5 ½ points – so the line is fair. The situation certainly favors the Hokies and I’ll consider Virginia Tech a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I’d make Virginia Tech a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Colorado (-8.5) 33 BAYLOR 19
04:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Colorado is coming off a huge upset over Oklahoma and the possible letdown is the only thing keeping me from making the underrated Buffaloes a Best Bet. Colorado’s defense has been outstanding all season, allowing just 4.5 yards per play to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team, but the Buffaloes aren’t bad on offense anymore. Colorado has faced a schedule full of very good defensive teams (Arizona State, Florida State, Oklahoma), which is why they’ve averaged just 5.0 yppl (with starting quarterback Hawkins in the game). However, that 5.0 yppl looks pretty good when you consider that the Buffs have faced teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an average team. Colorado 31 points against a mediocre Colorado State defense and 42 points against a Miami-Ohio defense that’s a little worse than average, so the Buffaloes should score a good number of points against a sub-par Baylor defense that’s surrendered 5.2 yppl to teams that would average only 4.9 yppp against an average team. The Bears, meanwhile, are worse than average offensively (5.5 yppl with starting QB Szymanski in the game, against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl) and they’ll have trouble scoring against the stingy Buffaloes’ stop unit. My math model favors Colorado by 18 points in this game but the Buffaloes do apply to a negative 33-73 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset win. That situation is only worth 4 points, so there is still overall value in favor of the Buffs, and perhaps last season’s 31-34 triple overtime loss to Baylor will keep the Buffaloes from letting down. I’ll consider Colorado a Strong Opinion at -10 or less and I’d take Colorado in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
MIDDLE TENN 23 Virginia (-10.5) 27
04:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Virginia is coming off a 44-14 home win over a decent Pitt squad but the Cavailers are simply a different team on the road and I expect them to stumble in this game without any real motivation to play hard. The Cavaliers are 28-12 ATS when motivated by the home crowd but just 12-23 ATS on the road under coach Al Groh. Groh’s team is also 20-11 ATS when motivated by a loss in their previous game and they’re 20-5 ATS with the revenge motive. Playing this game on the road after a win and spread win (with no revenge either) will make it tough for the Cavaliers to play well. In fact, Virginia is 0-16 ATS in their last 16 road games following a game in which they won and covered the spread (0- 14 ATS under Groh) and the Cavaliers also qualify in a very negative 18-73-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation while Middle Tennessee applies to a solid 77-32-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation. The situations favoring Middle Tennessee would give the Blue Raiders a 62.3% chance of covering at a fair line (based on the historical predictability of my situational analysis), but the fair line in this game is 13 points. With that being the case the Raiders have 55.9% chance of covering at +10 points which is not quite good enough to make them a Best Bet. I’ll consider Middle Tennessee State a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more and I’d make Middle Tennessee a Best Bet at +11 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Ohio St. (-7.0) 31 PURDUE 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Both of these teams are 5-0 but only Ohio State is legit. The Boilermakers’ 5 wins have all come against bad teams that are an average of 11 points worse than average while Ohio State has faced a schedule that is just 2 points worse than average and proved themselves with a convincing 33-14 win at Washington – a team that nearly beat USC last week. Purdue’s offense has generated 6.6 yards per play, but they’ve done so against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team and being only 0.6 yppl better than average offensively is not going to cut it against a dominating Ohio State defense that’s yielded just 3.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine for 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Buckeyes also have a significant advantage when they have the ball, as they rate at 0.4 yppl better than average with starting quarterback Todd Boeckman under center (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) while Purdue has been 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively by allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would average only 4.8 yppl against an average defense. The Boilermakers just gave up 433 yards at 5.6 yppl to a horrible Notre Dame attack that has averaged only 3.3 yppl for the season. Ohio State also has an edge in special teams and this looks like a comfortable win for the Buckeyes. I’ll consider Ohio State a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less and I’d take Ohio State in a 2- Star Best Bet at -5 or less.
Strong Opinion
RUTGERS (-3.5) 34 Cincinnati 24
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
The Scarlet Knights let me down last week in their 24-34 loss to Maryland but they did out play the Terrapins 5.9 yards per play to 5.5 yppl (they were -3 in turnover margin) so they weren’t as bad as the score made them appear to be. Cincinnati, meanwhile, moved their record to 5-0 and the Bearcats are now +14 in turnover margin for the season, which disguises the fact that they are not that much better than an average team. Cincy has averaged 6.5 yppl on offense, but they’ve faced teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team, and the Bearcats are just average on defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average defense). Cincinnati is not going to be +2.8 turnovers per game going forward and they are going to need to be to beat a Rutgers team that rates at 1.6 yppl better than average on offense (7.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team) and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively (4.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average stop unit). Rutgers didn’t play well last week against a mediocre Maryland team but they are better than Cincinnati and the Scarlet Knights are 13-5 ATS after a loss since 2003. I’ll consider Rutgers a Strong Opinion at -5 points or less and I’d take Rutgers in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
posted by phball101
Oct. 4 2007 7:12pm -
0 likes
NICE WORK PHANTOM
posted by takis28
Oct. 4 2007 7:43pm -
0 likes
dr bob
4 Star Selection
****UCLA (-20.5) 39 Notre Dame 6
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
UCLA should have won last year’s game against the Irish in South Bend and I doubt that the Bruins will feel sorry for Notre Dame today in a complete mismatch. The Irish finally mustered some offense last week against a sub-par Purdue defense but Notre Dame’s offense has been buried by teams that can put pressure on the quarterback and UCLA can certainly do that. For the season the Irish attack (if you can call it that) has averaged a pathetic 3.3 yards per play and UCLA’s solid defensive unit (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) will bring the heat with sack specialist Bruce Davis (16 sacks since last season) and a slew of other blitzing defenders. My math model projects just 3.5 yppl for Notre Dame in this game and that’s with the more effective Evan Sharpley at quarterback for injured freshman Jimmy Clausen (who may actually play, making it even worse for the Irish attack). Notre Dame does have a solid defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) but UCLA is even better offensively, averaging 5.7 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average attack. That unit will be blessed with good field position given to them by their defense and superior special teams and my math model favors the Bruins by 28 points in this game. In addition to the line value UCLA applies to a very strong 93-29-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Bruins play their best football at home, where they are 18-7-2 ATS under coach Dorrell (2-0 ATS this year). I’ll take UCLA in a 4-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 3-Stars from -21 ½ to -24 points and for 2-Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia Tech (-2.5) 27 MARYLAND 16
09:00 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Both of these teams are coming off upset wins but it’s Maryland that applies to a negative 13-40 ATS letdown situation while Georgia Tech applies to a very strong 73-25 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The match-up certainly does favor the Yellow Jackets, as their duo of star running backs Tashard Choice and Jonathan Dwyer (combined to run for 762 yards at 5.8 ypr and 11 touchdowns) will move the chains all day long against a Maryland defense that gas allowed 5.2 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average defense). The Terrapins do defend the pass well but Georgia Tech won’t have to throw too often in this one and Maryland isn’t likely to move the ball by land or by air against a good Yellow Jackets defense that rates at 0.8 yards per play better than average. Georgia Tech is particularly good defending the run (3.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), so I don’t expect Maryland’s run heavy attack (60% running plays but just average running the ball) to perform very well in this game. Maryland’s backup quarterback Chris Turner came off the bench last week for an injured Jordan Steffy and played well against Rutgers but I doubt that Turner is much better (if at all better) than Steffy and Maryland’s pass attack is normally very poor. Georgia Tech should also win the battle of field position in this game, as their special teams rate as one of the best in the nation. Overall, my math model favors the Yellow Jackets by 9 points in this game and the technical analysis favors them as well. I’ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and I’ll make them a 2-Star at -3 ½ or -4 points.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia 34 TENNESSEE (-1.0) 24
12:30 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Tennessee has no right being favored in this game. The Volunteers have been beaten soundly by the only two good teams that they’ve faced, losing by 14 points at Cal and by 39 points at Florida and playing this game at home is not going to help. Tennessee has a history of playing poorly against good conference foes in Knoxville under coach Fulmer, as the Vols are only 8-23-1 ATS in his tenure when hosting a conference foe with a win percentage of .666 or higher, including 5-21 ATS when not getting at least 3 points (0- 13 ATS since 2001). Even having last week off isn’t going to help Fulmer, as he’s 0-9 ATS in that role after a bye week. Georgia coach Mark Richt, meanwhile, has a habit of beating good teams on the road and his Bulldogs are now 16-5 ATS on the road when not laying 10 points or more, including a straight up win at Alabama a few weeks ago. Georgia is also a much better team than Tennessee. The Bulldogs haven’t been great offensively this season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) but Tennessee has been a disaster on defense (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and they’ve been 0.5 yppl worse than average or worse defensively in all 4 of their games this season (compensating for strength of opposing offenses, of course). Aside from Cal and Florida averaging a combined 8.0 yppl the Vols also gave up 5.4 yppl at home to Southern Miss and Arkansas State, who would combine to average only 4.8 yppl on the road against an average defensive team. Tennessee does have a better than average offensive unit (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and they are a bit better than that now that Eric Ainge has a healthy throwing hand (his broken pinky finger made it tough for him to throw down the field in the first couple of games), but Georgia’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average and has the advantage in that match-up. My math model favors Georgia by 8 ½ points even after adjusting Ainge’s passing numbers to last year’s level and I’ll take Georgia in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog or pick and for 2-Stars from -1 to -2 points.
3 Star Selection
***Florida 25 LSU (-7.5) 24
05:25 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Florida was caught looking ahead to this game and the Gators paid for that by losing to Auburn. However, that upset loss sets the Gators up in a very strong 61-10 ATS situation that has been very good to me over the years. LSU, meanwhile, applies to a negative 29- 67-1 ATS situation and I certainly don’t mind taking the extra points that is the result of last week’s result. Florida certainly didn’t play that poorly last week, as they out- gained Auburn 5.7 yards per play to 4.7 yppl, which is actually 1.6 yppl better than average after compensating for level of opponent and site. LSU, meanwhile, only out- gained Tulane 5.6 yppl to 3.5 yppl, which is only 0.6 yppl better than average when factoring in that Tulane would be out-gained by 1.5 yppl at home against an average team. So LSU actually played worse last week than Florida, so the extra point we’re getting this week is a bit of a gift. LSU has been struggling offensively with Matt Flynn at quarterback, as the Tigers have been only 0.5 yppl better than average with Flynn under center (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense). Florida’s defense has only been 0.4 yppl better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense), so LSU’s attack with Flynn at quarterback has only a 0.1 yppl edge over Florida’s defense. LSU’s defense has been incredible in allowing just 2.9 yppl in 5 games (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average stop unit), but Florida has been 2.0 yppl better than average offensively this season (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), so the Tigers also have just a 0.1 yppl advantage over the Gators’ offense. These teams are very close from a yards per play perspective and my math model only favors LSU by 5 ½ points here in Baton Rouge. With a strong situation and line value on our side I’ll take Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars from +7 to +6 points.
3 Star Selection
***Nebraska 38 MISSOURI (-7.0) 37
06:15 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
I was surprised that Missouri was favored by so much over a good Nebraska team. I realize that Nebraska’s defense has come into question in recent weeks after getting run over by USC and then allowing Ball State to rack up 610 yards at 40 points the next week, but Nebraska’s defense is actually better than Missouri’s defense and both teams are pretty close offensively. Nebraska has allowed 5.4 yards per play for the season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so their defense really isn’t as bad as it looked in those two games. Missouri’s defense, however, has played worse than average in all 4 of their games this season (relative to who and where they were playing) and the Tigers have allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Missouri is slightly better offensively (1.0 yppl better than average compared to Nebraska’s +0.8 yppl offensive rating) but these two teams are about the same from a compensated yards per play basis and Nebraska has the edge in special teams while Missouri has a 1.7 points edge in projected turnovers. Overall, my math model favors Nebraska by 1 ½ points and the Cornhuskers apply to a decent 61-29-1 ATS situation that is based on their recent pointspread failures. I’ll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points (strong opinion at +5 ½ or +5 points.
2 Star Selection
**MICHIGAN ST. (-14.5) 40 Northwestern 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Northwestern was in a good situation last week against an overrated Michigan team and the Wildcats covered the spread in a 16-28 home loss. Competing on the road against a good Michigan State team is another story and Northwestern looks overmatched in this game. The Wildcats have averaged just 5.0 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and that unit will struggle against a solid Spartans’ defense that has been 0.4 yppl better than average this season (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). There is an equally decisive mismatch on the other side of the ball, as Michigan State’s balanced attack has been 0.5 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) is likely to move the ball consistently against a Wildcats’ defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). Northwestern is particularly bad defending the pass (7.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppp), so Spartans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer should have no trouble moving the chains on 3rd down if his good running backs Ringer (544 yards at 6.0 ypr) and Caulcrick (373 yards at 4.5 ypr) don’t take care of business on 1st and 2nd down. My math model projects a 500 yards to 298 yards advantage for Michigan State and that should result in a win of 20 points or more. I’ll take Michigan State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**Arizona 31 OREGON ST. (-4.0) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Arizona’s new pass-heavy Texas Tech style offense has struggled a bit against teams with good pass defenses (BYU and Cal), but quarterback Willie Tuitama torched a mediocre New Mexico pass defense 3 weeks ago (8.2 yards per pass play) and averaged 11.2 yppp in last week’s win over Washington State. Arizona matches up very well with an Oregon State defense that is one of the best in the nation at defending the run (3.0 yards per rushing play allowed) while rating at 0.5 yppp worse than average against the pass. The Beavers’ excellent run defense is really going to do them no good against a team that doesn’t care about the running the ball and I expect the Wildcats to move the ball well in this game. Oregon State’s offense will have a tough time keeping up with star WR Sammie Straughter now sidelined indefinitely with a kidney injury after carrying the offense for two weeks. Straughter was one of the best receivers in the nation last season (1293 yards at 17.5 ypc) and Oregon State’s inexperienced quarterbacks struggled the first two games with Straughter sitting out for personal reasons. Straughter returned to the starting lineup for weeks 3 and 4 and Oregon State’s offense totaled 1121 yards and 93 points in those two games, including racking up 514 yards at 6.4 yards per play against a very good Arizona State defense. Straughter caught 15 passes for 262 yards (17.5 ypc) in those two games but he sat out last week and the Beavers’ pass attack went with him (just 3.1 yppp against UCLA). Oregon State is about average in pass offense for the season, but the Beavers are 1.3 yppp worse than average in 3 games without Straughter (4.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average team). I actually rate OSU quarterback Sean Canfield at 0.5 yppp worse than average without Straughter and Canfield continues to throw interceptions at a high rate (11 on 163 passes while backup Moevao has thrown 4 picks). Oregon State’s rushing attack is just barely better than average (5.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and the Beavers are a below average offensive team overall. Oregon State’s only offensive weapon is running back Yvenson Bernard, but Bernard has averaged a sub-par 4.5 ypr in his career (4.6 ypr this season) and Arizona is a good defending the run (3.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team). Overall Arizona rates at 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, so they have an advantage over the OSU attack. Arizona is the better team and I’ll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (strong opinion from +1 to 2 ½).
Strong Opinion
Utah 26 LOUISVILLE (-14.5) 35
05:00 PM Pacific, 05-Oct-07
Louisville is a tough team to figure, as their defense can’t possibly be as bad as it was against Middle Tennessee State and Syracuse, who are two bad offensive teams that combined to average 40 points and 9.2 yards per play. Louisville has actually played better defensively when focused by the threat of a decent opponent, as they limited Kentucky to 5.8 yppl and held NC State to 5.3 yppl last week. Utah is certainly a team that Louisville has to take seriously even though the Utes have struggled offensively this season so far (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). The return of starting quarterback Brian Johnson to the starting lineup last week didn’t help, as the Utes managed just 5.2 yppl against a Utah State defense that would allow 6.6 yppl on the road to an average team. Utah certainly is capable of a good offensive game given their 5.5 yppl and 44 points they racked up on a good UCLA defense a few weeks ago. Utah does have a solid defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team), so they should slow down the potent Louisville attack (7.4 yppl) a bit. This game really depends on which Louisville defense shows up – the horrible unit that couldn’t stop Middle Tennessee or Syracuse or the unit that played at a decent level against Kentucky and NC State. If Louisville plays defensively at the level they played against the two teams that had to take seriously then my math model would favor the Cardinals by 14 ½ points, but the predicted margin would be considerably less if I use all 5 of Louisville’s games to get their defensive rating. At Louisville’s defensive best the Cardinals still don’t appear to have more than a 50% chance of covering and I’ll favor Utah plus the points.
Strong Opinion
AUBURN (-7.5) 28 Vanderbilt 14
09:30 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Auburn is coming off a huge upset win over Florida and you might think that the Tigers would be due for a letdown. That’s what I thought might be the case too until I looked up how home favorites perform after winning straight up as a double- road underdog. As it turns out teams in that situation are good bets and Auburn applies to a 36-6 ATS subset of a situation based on the premise. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is playing their first road game after 4 home games and the Commodores apply to a negative 23-57-3 ATS situation that plays against road teams after playing 4 or more consecutive home games. Auburn has struggled offensively this season so far (4.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) but quarterback Brandon Cox has proven the last two years that he’s certainly capable of playing better. Vanderbilt does have a solid defense but the Commodores’ offense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season (0.2 yppl worse than average with Chris Nickson under center) and Auburn’s defense has allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive unit. The loss of DE Quentin Groves is worth 1.5 points based on my analysis but my math model still favors Auburn by 10 points and the situation is favorable. The only negative is Vanderbilt’s 11-2 ATS mark as a road underdog the previous 3 seasons, but I’ll consider Auburn a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less and I’d take Auburn in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Arizona St. (-8.0) 37 WASHINGTON ST. 23
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
I rated Arizona State as the 6th best team in the nation before the season started and the Sun Devils have not disappointed so far. ASU is 0.8 yards per play better than average on offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Sun Devils are 1.2 yppl better than average defensively – allowing just 4.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Washington State is a decent team, rating at 0.6 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense, but they are not likely to keep this game within single s. I’ll consider Arizona State a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less and I’d take ASU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Fresno St. 26 NEVADA (-3.5) 24
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Nevada is a perfect 12-0 ATS as a home favorite under coach Ault while Fresno State is only 5-17 ATS in conference road games against teams with a win percentage of .400 or better in 11 seasons under coach Pat Hill. Those are the only things keeping me making Fresno a solid Best Bet, as the Bulldogs appear to be a much better team than Nevada. Nevada’s offense is certainly good, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, but Fresno has given up just 4.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. The Bulldogs held Texas A&M to 4.5 yppl (the Aggies would average 5.7 yppl at home against an average team) and they limited a great Oregon offense to 6.6 yppl, which is good considering that the Ducks would average 7.2 yppl at home against an average defense. Nevada has been great offensively the last 3 weeks against bad defensive teams but the Wolf Pack were held to 185 yards at 3.6 yppl by a mediocre Nebraska defense in week 1 and they could have trouble against Fresno’s good defense too. Fresno State’s offense rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average but Nevada is 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense and has allowed an average of 271 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play in 4 games against teams that would average only 4.1 yprp against an average defensive team. Fresno would love to establish the run and they should be able to in this game. My math model favors Fresno State by 8 ½ points but I decided to use only Nevada’s home game stats since they are so much better at home than they’ve been on the road under coach Ault. Using only Nevada’s home games would still result in the math favoring Fresno by 2 ½ points and I’ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more despite the negative team trends.
Strong Opinion
Virginia Tech 20 CLEMSON (-5.5) 21
03:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Virginia Tech was expected to be one of the top-10 teams in the nation but their offense has held them back and the Hokies are having a tough time scoring despite great field position bestowed upon them by their defense and special teams. Virginia Tech has averaged only 4.6 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the attack hasn’t gotten any better in 3 games with freshman Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Clemson has a good defense (4.4 yppl allowed) but the Tigers can be run against (4.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp) and Virginia Tech has a decent rushing attack now that Taylor is adding good yardage from the quarterback position (24 runs for 192 yards). The Hokies’ defense had one horrible game against LSU (599 yards at 8.3 yppl) but they’ve played very well in every other game and held a good North Carolina attack to just 4.4 yppl and 10 points last week. Clemson has a good offense (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but Virginia Tech’s defense is even better, so the Hokies can stay competitive in this game with defense and their great special teams. How good are the Virginia Tech special teams? The Hokies have been out-gained 286 yards at 4.6 yppl to 312 yards at 4.6 yppl and are -1 in turnovers yet they’ve out-scored their opponents by 7.6 points per game thanks to their special teams. Clemson has horrible special teams and I expect at least one big special teams play by the Hokies in this game. With last week’s upset loss at Georgia Tech Clemson is now just 11-25-1 ATS as a conference favorite under coach Bowden, including 4-17-1 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of .400 or higher. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, applies to a 54-10 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. Clemson is a much better team from the line of scrimmage but my math model favors the Tigers by just 5 ½ points – so the line is fair. The situation certainly favors the Hokies and I’ll consider Virginia Tech a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I’d make Virginia Tech a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Colorado (-8.5) 33 BAYLOR 19
04:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Colorado is coming off a huge upset over Oklahoma and the possible letdown is the only thing keeping me from making the underrated Buffaloes a Best Bet. Colorado’s defense has been outstanding all season, allowing just 4.5 yards per play to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team, but the Buffaloes aren’t bad on offense anymore. Colorado has faced a schedule full of very good defensive teams (Arizona State, Florida State, Oklahoma), which is why they’ve averaged just 5.0 yppl (with starting quarterback Hawkins in the game). However, that 5.0 yppl looks pretty good when you consider that the Buffs have faced teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an average team. Colorado 31 points against a mediocre Colorado State defense and 42 points against a Miami-Ohio defense that’s a little worse than average, so the Buffaloes should score a good number of points against a sub-par Baylor defense that’s surrendered 5.2 yppl to teams that would average only 4.9 yppp against an average team. The Bears, meanwhile, are worse than average offensively (5.5 yppl with starting QB Szymanski in the game, against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl) and they’ll have trouble scoring against the stingy Buffaloes’ stop unit. My math model favors Colorado by 18 points in this game but the Buffaloes do apply to a negative 33-73 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset win. That situation is only worth 4 points, so there is still overall value in favor of the Buffs, and perhaps last season’s 31-34 triple overtime loss to Baylor will keep the Buffaloes from letting down. I’ll consider Colorado a Strong Opinion at -10 or less and I’d take Colorado in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
MIDDLE TENN 23 Virginia (-10.5) 27
04:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Virginia is coming off a 44-14 home win over a decent Pitt squad but the Cavailers are simply a different team on the road and I expect them to stumble in this game without any real motivation to play hard. The Cavaliers are 28-12 ATS when motivated by the home crowd but just 12-23 ATS on the road under coach Al Groh. Groh’s team is also 20-11 ATS when motivated by a loss in their previous game and they’re 20-5 ATS with the revenge motive. Playing this game on the road after a win and spread win (with no revenge either) will make it tough for the Cavaliers to play well. In fact, Virginia is 0-16 ATS in their last 16 road games following a game in which they won and covered the spread (0- 14 ATS under Groh) and the Cavaliers also qualify in a very negative 18-73-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation while Middle Tennessee applies to a solid 77-32-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation. The situations favoring Middle Tennessee would give the Blue Raiders a 62.3% chance of covering at a fair line (based on the historical predictability of my situational analysis), but the fair line in this game is 13 points. With that being the case the Raiders have 55.9% chance of covering at +10 points which is not quite good enough to make them a Best Bet. I’ll consider Middle Tennessee State a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more and I’d make Middle Tennessee a Best Bet at +11 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Ohio St. (-7.0) 31 PURDUE 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Both of these teams are 5-0 but only Ohio State is legit. The Boilermakers’ 5 wins have all come against bad teams that are an average of 11 points worse than average while Ohio State has faced a schedule that is just 2 points worse than average and proved themselves with a convincing 33-14 win at Washington – a team that nearly beat USC last week. Purdue’s offense has generated 6.6 yards per play, but they’ve done so against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team and being only 0.6 yppl better than average offensively is not going to cut it against a dominating Ohio State defense that’s yielded just 3.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine for 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Buckeyes also have a significant advantage when they have the ball, as they rate at 0.4 yppl better than average with starting quarterback Todd Boeckman under center (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) while Purdue has been 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively by allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would average only 4.8 yppl against an average defense. The Boilermakers just gave up 433 yards at 5.6 yppl to a horrible Notre Dame attack that has averaged only 3.3 yppl for the season. Ohio State also has an edge in special teams and this looks like a comfortable win for the Buckeyes. I’ll consider Ohio State a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less and I’d take Ohio State in a 2- Star Best Bet at -5 or less.
Strong Opinion
RUTGERS (-3.5) 34 Cincinnati 24
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
The Scarlet Knights let me down last week in their 24-34 loss to Maryland but they did out play the Terrapins 5.9 yards per play to 5.5 yppl (they were -3 in turnover margin) so they weren’t as bad as the score made them appear to be. Cincinnati, meanwhile, moved their record to 5-0 and the Bearcats are now +14 in turnover margin for the season, which disguises the fact that they are not that much better than an average team. Cincy has averaged 6.5 yppl on offense, but they’ve faced teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team, and the Bearcats are just average on defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average defense). Cincinnati is not going to be +2.8 turnovers per game going forward and they are going to need to be to beat a Rutgers team that rates at 1.6 yppl better than average on offense (7.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team) and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively (4.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average stop unit). Rutgers didn’t play well last week against a mediocre Maryland team but they are better than Cincinnati and the Scarlet Knights are 13-5 ATS after a loss since 2003. I’ll consider Rutgers a Strong Opinion at -5 points or less and I’d take Rutgers in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 8:35pm -
0 likes
Gator Report (free)
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NCAA (Saturday): Nevada Head Coach Cris Ault is 12-0 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Nevada the average score for these contests Nevada 39 Opponent 19.
__________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 8:51pm -
0 likes
Tim Sullivan
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Look for him to rebound this week after a horrible week last week.Normally one of the better cappers out there
SYRACUSE (+261/2) over West Virginia: Mountaineers' bounce-back spread record after an upset is not good. They went 0-2 last year after both of their losses.
BOS. COLLEGE (-20) over Bowling Green: Eagles have to be giddy over their No. 6 ranking. They got there because everyone else lost. They'll stay there by running up scores.
Wisconsin (+21/2) over ILLINOIS: Be on trap alert here, but the reality is the public is in love with the Illini's 27-20 victory over Penn State. The Nittany Lions gave that one away more than Illinois took it.
Georgia (+11/2) over TENNESSEE: Mark Richt on the road is as solid a bet as you can have these days. And - no surprise here - we need some of those.
PENN STATE (-91/2) over Iowa: Lions are a totally different team at home. The losing streak ends at two.
FLORIDA STATE (-18) over N.C. State: 'Noles assistant Chuck Amato knows a thing or two about the opposing talent. The former Wolfpack head coach recruited the majority of it.
CLEMSON (-51/2) over Virginia Tech: Now that Tommy Bowden's annual early-season stumble is behind him, the Tigers can regroup.
USC (-391/2) over Stanford: A look-away game: Take a side, check the score at the end of the night. Stanford's QB problems, and Pete Carroll's disdain for Jim Harbaugh, makes our decision for us.
RUTGERS (-31/2) over Cincinnati: Bearcats are gaining value in the public eye and the line is evidence. Go the other way.
LSU (-9) over Florida: Gators' loss last week has this line a little higher than expected. In the end, it shouldn't matter.
Notre Dame (+201/2) over UCLA: Revenge spot for the Bruins, but if Evan Sharpley can move this Irish offense at Purdue, he can do it at the Rose Bowl.
PURDUE (+7) over Ohio State: Speaking of the Boilers, it's about time for a statement, upset, signature - whatever else you want to call it - win from Joe Tiller.
MISSOURI (-7) over Nebraska: Tigers' offense overpowers the Cornhuskers' defense in prime time.
OFF THE GRID
Texas Christian (+3) over WYOMING: Snow is in the Laramie forecast, so why take guys from Texas? The Frogs' running game is regaining its old form.
3 best bets in bold
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2007 8:51pm -
0 likes
RAS Official Plays:
BG/BC OVER 57
Fresno/Nevada UNDER 54'
UAB/Miss St.UNDER 50
All 1 Unit plays
SF,
Lt. Dan
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:19pm -
0 likes
lem banker
syracuse
wisc
ncst
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:19pm -
0 likes
Teddy Covers 20* GOY is Purdue +7.5.
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:20pm -
0 likes
Ben Burns' SEC GAME OF THE YEAR (3-0 YTD!)
Big Game Expert Ben Burns is already a SWEET 3-0 with this season's Conference "Game of the Year" selections, easily cashing tickets with his ACC GOY, WAC GOY and his BIG 10 GOY.
Tennessee (-3 or better)
**ALERT** Burns Non-Conference MAIN EVENT *75% YTD
Last week's winner on Florida State over Alabama brought Ben Burns to 75% PERCENT (3-1) with his "Main Events" this football season. Looking back further and we find The Man at an OUTSTANDING 34-19 (64%) with his L53 "ME's
FAU (+14 or better)
**BLOWOUT ALERT** Ben Burns' ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK
Ben Burns began last Saturday by cashing his ESPN Game of the Month as Tulane EASILY COVERED vs. LSU. Burns returns with another ESPN BEAUTY this week and this one's got R-O-U-T written all over it
Rutgers
Ben Burns 3-Game EXECUTIVE REPORT **SPECIAL OFFER!
Last month, Ben Burns released his WAC Conf. GOY and +28 LA Tech took Hawaii all the way to overtime, before losing by a single point. If you enjoyed that 27-POINT WINNER you'll LOVE Ben's October WAC G.O.M
Baylor (+7 or better) - Big 12 GOW
Fresno State - WAC GOM
East Carolina
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:20pm -
0 likes
SPORTSMEMO 5K INVITATIONAL
For analysis on each handicapper’s Best Bet, check out pages 13-15.
NEWSLETTER STAFF
Tim Trushel .......................................President/Senior Handicapper
HANDICAPPER RECORD BEST BET
David Jones 4-0 Tulsa Over NL
Teddy Covers 4-0 Wyoming -2.5
Rob Veno 4-0 Rutgers -3
Fairway Jay 3-1 Georgia Tech -2.5
Sonny Palermo 3-1 Titans -8
Erin Rynning 2-2 Rutgers -3
Donnie Black 2-2 Illinois -2.5
Brent Crow 1-2-1 Rutgers -3
Jared Klein 1-3 Purdue +7
Tim Trushel 1-3 Saints -3
Ed Cash 0-4 UAB +17.5
Marty Otto 0-4 Saints -3
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:20pm -
0 likes
Cowherd
ohio state
uga
illinois
stanford
oklahoma
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:21pm -
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VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Louisville Cardinals - 14 over Utah Utes
.
Utah (2-3) is 1-6 last seven road games, including a 27-0 loss at (now 2-3) UNLV on Sept.22nd. Louisville (3-2) is 20-2 (17-5 ATS) last 22 home games. Cardinal's QB Brohm, 21-5 in 26 starts, has thrown 16 TDs vs. 4 INTs this season.
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:23pm -
0 likes
Tom Freese Blue Line Club CFB 86% ATS Super System 10* 'TOTAL'
OVER UT/L'ville
Reason: Louisville is in a 24-4 Over Super System that says to play OVER on any team that gained 450 or more yards in 3 straight games if in this game both teams have 8 or more offensive starters returning from last years team. The Cardinals are 13-4 OVER their last 17 October games. Utah is 8-3 OVER off a straight up win in their last game. The Utes are 6-2 OVER their last 8 road games vs. winning teams and they are 11-5 OVER after allowing 20 or less points in their last game. 10* Play On 'OVER'
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:24pm -
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Chris Jordan
Friday winner ...
200♦ UTAH - I know the Cardinals stopped the bleeding against NC State, but I can't help but acknowledge the resume Utah brings into this contest, having played enough solid competition that will help it challenge Louisville. Despite a 2-3 mark, the Utes have seen the likes of Pac 10 members Oregon State and UCLA, and fellow Mountain West challengers Air Force and UNLV.
And before we go brow-beating the Falcons and Rebels, playing the Academy is never an easy chore, and the Rebels are a team that were extremely close to knocking off then-5th ranked Wisconsin with a stellar defensive effort.
Meanwhile, we're taking points from a Louisville team that tuned up for the season by humiliating Murray State (73-10) and beating Middle Tennessee State (58-42) by 16, when it laid 42. Since then the Cardinals lost to Kentucky and Syracuse (laying 37-1/2 points). And other than the Murray State debacle and last week's 29-10 win over the Wolfpack, the Cards have given up an average of 40 points in the other three.
Now they face a Utah team that has holds the advantage with its overall defense, which is giving up just 19 points and 349.6 total yards per game. And with Utah flourishing as a pup – it's on a 21-5 ATS run when catching points, and that includes a 4-0 mark in its last four as a double- dog. Take the points in this one, as the Utes stay inside the number.
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:24pm -
0 likes
10/5 PYSCHIC SPORTS
NCAAF
2 units Louisville -14
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:24pm -
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Lenny Stevens
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10* Louisville
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:25pm -
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northcoast marquee play
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Louisville -14 released @noon
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:25pm -
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ATS Financial Package
Over 60 1/2 Loui/Ut......................3 Units
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:25pm -
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ATS Lock Club
2 units on Utah (+14.5) over Louisville, 8:00pmET
posted by phantom
Oct. 5 2007 5:26pm -
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Gold Sheet
late telephone releases for this weekend:
SUPER POWER 7 = 2 units = #346 KANSAS STATE @ - 3
TOP PLAY = 1 1/2 units = #378 MARYLAND @ + 3 1/2
REGULAR PLAYS = 1 unit = #321 MIAMI (Florida) @ - 7
#350 BAYLOR @ + 9
#356 MISSOURI @ - 6
#434 BOISE STATE @ - 24 1/2 (Sunday)
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:49am -
0 likes
Scott Spreitzer
Pancake Game - USC
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:50am -
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Strike Points
5 Wisc
3 C. Mich
3 K. State
4 TCU
4 Ark St
4 C. Fla.
3 Fla
4 Over 52 Oh St/Purdue
4 Teaser ( Georg & Cincin)
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:50am -
0 likes
Psychic Sports Picks Members Area
10/6
NCAAF
2 units North Carolina +7
2 units Wisconsin +2.5
3 units Houston +11
3 units Virginia Tech +6
3 units Rutgers -4
3 units Troy -18.5
3 units Notre Dame +22
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:50am -
0 likes
Ted Sevransky
GAME: Fresno St. @ Nevada Oct 6, 2007 4:00PM
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: Nevada
Offered at: -3 Sportsbook
REASON FOR PICK: Fresno State was the ‘class’ program of the WAC for a good portion of Pat Hill’s eleven year tenure as head coach. With #1 overall draft pick David Carr at quarterback, the Bulldogs were a ‘tough out’ against just about everybody. During a five year span between 2000 and 2004, Fresno won outright against Colorado, Wisconsin, Oregon St, Kansas St and Washington, while hanging well within the pointspread in games against Oregon, Tennessee, Oklahoma and UCLA.
In November of 2005, Fresno was 8-1 (the lone loss coming by three points at Oregon), and leading at #1 USC in the fourth quarter. But the Bulldogs blew the fourth quarter lead against the Trojans, and frankly, the program hasn’t been the same since that defeat. Fresno went on to lose their remaining three games of the ’05 season (favored by a combined 45 points in those three games). Last year, the Bulldogs went 4-8 SU, 2-10 ATS. So far this season, Fresno has a win over 1-AA Sacramento State and a particularly unimpressive win over lowly Louisiana Tech (both victories coming at home) to show for the first month of the season.
The Bulldogs have never been able to replace Carr at the QB position. Paul Pinegar had his moments, but he certainly wasn’t an elite level, NFL bound quarterback. Current starter Tom Brandstater is even worse than Pinegar was. Last week, Brandstater’s stat line looked like this: 8-22, 92 yards, 0 touchdowns. Tight end Bear Pascoe has been Brandstater’s only consistent receiving threat. Running backs Ryan Matthews and Lonyae Miller combine to average less than four yards per carry. A defense with only four returning starters has struggled mightily against both solid attacks that they’ve faced this year. And let’s not forget that Fresno St is on a 1-9 SU run on the road, not the type of team worth backing in this price range in a hostile environment. And it’s surely worth noting that the Bulldogs have lost the turnover battle in each of their first four games, another indicator that the quarterback play here isn’t quite up to par.
Nevada is 12-0 ATS as a home favorite in this current epoch of the Chris Ault era, as apart of a 17-3 overall home record in the last 3+ seasons. Reno is no easy place for opposing teams to visit these days. Since an opening day loss at Nebraska, the Wolfpack offense has been clicking on all cylinders, putting up 110 points in three games, while averaging more than 200 yards per game both on the ground and through the air.
While Nevada QB Nick Graziano is still learning the intricacies of Ault’s unique ‘Pistol’ offense, he’s certainly got a big arm and plenty of playmakers to throw to. In fact, the Wolfpack have five different receivers that have caught a TD pass of 48 yards or longer, while running back Luke Lippincott is averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Given Nevada’s track record at home, and Fresno’s limited offensive capabilities, look for the Wolfpack to extend their streak to 13 consecutive pointspread covers as a home favorite on Saturday. (#364) Take Nevada.
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:50am -
0 likes
Doc's
Free PICK: Baylor
Offered at: 10 BetEd
REASON FOR PICK: A perfect spot to fade the Buffaloes, who are coming off a landmark win against Oklahoma. This was the signature win for Coach Dan Hawkins and expect overconfidence to creep in this week. Baylor is undefeated at Floyd Casey Stadium this year and has a strong passing attack led by Blake Szymanski. They are averaging over 24 points per game and should have no problem staying in this affair for 3 ½ hours. This will be a field goal game and we cash with whoever comes out on top. A very strong Top Play will be released Saturday. We are 6-1 on our top play releases in 2007. Baylor 31, Colorado 28.
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:51am -
0 likes
Tips & Trends
#5 Wisconsin at Illinois (ESPN | 12 PM ET)
The Badgers have won 14 straight games - the longest active winning streak in the country - including a school-record 9 in a row in Big Ten play. "We're excited about our position in college football, in the Big Ten," Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema said. "We've done a lot of good things to this point to get where we are." EDGE: WISCONSIN
Illinois has won 4 straight games and is off to its best start since winning the Big Ten in 2001. The Illini led last year's meeting at Madison by 18 points before Wisconsin rallied for a 30-24 win. EDGE: ILLINOIS
Wisconsin’s No. 2 RB Lance Smith will not play on Saturday due to a five-game University suspension. Starting RB P.J. Hill (133 yards per game) will once again carry the load, but he will need a breather (78% of the team’s carries) and does not have a proven backup ready to play. EDGE: ILLINOIS
Wisconsin is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games.
Wisconsin is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.
Illinois is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The UNDER is 7-3 in Wisconsin's last 10 road games.
#10 Oklahoma vs. #19 Texas at Dallas (ABC | 3:30 PM ET)
For the first time since 1999, both teams will be coming off losses heading into the 102nd edition of the Red River Rivalry. Texas will be looking for its third straight win in the series. Oklahoma freshman QB Sam Bradford is coming off the worst loss of his young career in a 27-24 loss at Colorado, throwing for just 112 yards with two interceptions after leading the Sooners to at least 51 points in each of their previous four games. SLIGHT EDGE: TEXAS
Texas QB Colt McCoy has been medically cleared to play on Saturday, but he will need to cut down on the interceptions. McCoy has already thrown 9 picks compared to only 7 all of last season and now must face an Oklahoma defense which has nine INTs this season. EDGE: OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games.
Oklahoma is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games overall.
Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
#12 Georgia at Tennessee (ABC | 3:30 PM ET)
Georgia is an amazing 23-3 straight-up on the road in SEC play under head coach Mark Richt and has won three straight at Tennessee. BIG EDGE: GEORGIA
The Vols are ranked 111th in scoring defense this season, surrendering an abysmal 37.5 points per game. BIG EDGE: GEORGIA
Tennessee is 10-28 ATS in its last 38 home games.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Georgia's last 8 road games.
The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Tennessee's lsat 12 games played in October.
#15 Virginia Tech at #22 Clemson (ESPN | 6 PM ET)
Virginia Tech true freshman QB Tyrod Taylor has been battling a groin injury, but he is expected to make his first road start. Taylor was limited in practice and has led the team to just 160 passing yards per game. He’ll need to be 100 percent this week as he’ll be facing a Clemson defense which yields just 149 passing yards per game. EDGE: CLEMSON
Virginia Tech has won the last 4 meetings between the teams both SU & ATS.
Virginia Tech is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games.
Clemson is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall.
The UNDER is 8-2 in Virginia Tech's last 10 games overall.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Clemson's last 8 ACC games.
#9 Florida at #1 LSU (CBS | 8 PM ET)
Florida WR Andre Caldwell (knee) is expected to be stronger this week against LSU, but he is once again expected to be used more as a decoy. SLIGHT EDGE: LSU
Florida is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 SEC games.
Florida is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Florida is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between the teams.
The UNDER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
#4 Ohio State at #23 Purdue (ABC | 5 PM ET)
Purdue has covered the last three home meetings with Ohio State, winning twice straight-up. This will be the team's toughest home game of the season, with road games at Michigan and Penn State the only real roadblocks potentially keeping the Boilermakers from a Big Ten title if they win this game. EDGE: PURDUE
The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in scoring defense, allowing just 7.2 points per game. They have also been outstanding offensively in the last three games, averaging 40.3 points per game. EDGE: OHIO STATE
Ohio State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.
The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between the teams.
The UNDER is 22-6-1 in Purdue's last 29 home games.
The UNDER is also 22-8 in Purdue's last 30 Big Ten games.
#20 Cincinnati at #21 Rutgers (ESPN2 | 8 PM ET)
This is a big revenge spot for Rutgers after Cincinnati ended the team's dream of an unbeaten season with a 30-11 victory just nine days after the the Scarlet Knights upset previously unbeaten Louisville. EDGE: RUTGERS
Cincinnati will be playing its second straight road game after traveling cross country for last Saturday's 52-23 rout of San Diego State. EDGE: RUTGERS
Cincinnati has won all five of its games by at least 26 points. EDGE: CINCINNATI
Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on grass.
The OVER is 7-1 in Cincinnati's last 8 games overall.
The OVER is 7-1 in Rutgers' last 8 games overall.
#25 Nebraska at #17 Missouri (ESPN | 9:15 PM ET)
Missouri has won two straight home meetings with Nebraska but has not won three in a row against the Cornhuskers in Columbia since 1947-51. Nebraska leads the all-time series 63-34-3 and won last year's meeting at home, 34-20. SLIGHT EDGE: NEBRASKA
Missouri is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 home games.
Missouri is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Nebraska's last 8 road games.
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:51am -
0 likes
HQ Newsletter Report
5* GOW KENT ST over MIAMI OHIO by 21 Saturday October 6th
3* PURDUE (+) over OHIO STATE Saturday October 6th
3* ARIZONA STATE over WAHINGTON ST 17 Saturday October 6th
3* AIR FORCE over UNLV by 13 Saturday October 6th
A.T.S. (Angles, Trends & Systems)
FREE PLAY BALL STATE OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN
HQREPORT.COM UNDERDOG PLAY of the WEEK
FREE PLAY KANSAS (+) over KANSAS ST
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:52am -
0 likes
Doc's
7* GOY released at 10 eastern sat.
5* clemson -5.5
5* san jose st -7
4* bowling green +20
4* Mizz -7
4* wyoming -3
4* minn +14
4* houston +11
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:52am -
0 likes
Gator Report
Premium Newsletter
Gator's NCAA Game of the Week Report
Each week in this section Gator will provide his College Games of the Week which will include his Conference, Steamroller and Underdog PLUS Bonus Selections during the season.
SEC GOW (1-1 -0.1)(Saturday): Georgia +1.5
Big 12 GOW (0-1 -1.1)(Saturday): Texas A&M -6
Big 10 GOW (1-0 +1.00)(Saturday): pass
Steamroller GOW (1-2 -1.2)(Saturday): pass
Underdog GOW (1-0 +1.0)(Saturday): Vanderbilt +7.5
Gator's NFL "Tech" Game of the Week
Each week Gator releases his Top "Technical" Game of the Week, in football, basketball and baseball.
NFL Technical Game of the Week Selection (1-3 -2.30):
Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Technical Set: We know that teams that started the season 3-0 and suffered their first loss of the season last week have posted a record of 7-1 Over in their next game and if their opponent is off a SU win it's a perfect 4-0 Over the last four qualifying games. We also have a super situation that has posted a record of 57-23 Over the last 5 years and it says to Play Over on road teams after allowing 3 or less points in the first half of their last game facing an opponent that scored 14 or less points in their last game. Seattle is 29-11 Over versus defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992, 18-7 Over in road games versus teams averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992, 6-0 Over after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons, 8-0 Over after allowing 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Pittsburgh 15-2 Over as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons, 7-0 Over as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons, 11-2 Over in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons, 15-2 Over in home games over the last 3 seasons.
Selection: SEATTLE / PITTSBURGH OVER 38
Gator's Super System Selections
Each week during the football, basketball and baseball season's we will post our Top Rated System Selections along with the qualifying system.
NCAA System GOW (1-3 -2.30)
Game: Colorado vs. Baylor
System:
Play AGAINST a road favorite of 1½-20½ points off a SU win as an underdog of 14+ points vs. an opponent off a SU loss. 0-20 ATS since 1982.
Selection: BAYLOR +8.5
Gator's 70% Situational Report
NCAA (Saturday):
Game: Iowa State vs. Texas Tech
Play Against NCAA Underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival facing an opponent off a home win by 28 points or more 35-11 ATS since 1992 PLAY: TEXAS TECH -24.5
__________________________________________________ _____________
Game: Wisconsin vs. Illinois
Play Under NCAA teams when the total is between 49.5 and 56 after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, with an inexperienced QB as starter. 53-21 Under since 1992. PLAY: WISCONSIN / ILLINOIS UNDER 51.5
__________________________________________________ _________
NFL (Monday Night Football):
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills
Play Over NFL road teams when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a team scoring 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games, 27-7 Over since 1983. PLAY: DALLAS / BUFFALO OVER 44.5
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:52am -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence CFB Super Pick Super Play - Saturday 10/6:
Play On: Vanderbilt
Note: Commodores visit Auburn in a key SEC clash catching the Tigers off last week's huge upset win over Florida with a revenge game waiting on deck with Arkansas. With Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville 2-7 ATS in his career at home off an upset win when facing a sub .800 opponent, and Vanderbilt owning the better offense and the better defense, we'll grab the points in this letdown/lookahead special.
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:53am -
0 likes
Norm Hitzges
NCAAF 50-40 YTD
NCAA
Double Play--OU -10.5 vs Texas
Double Play--Indiana -13 vs Minnesota
Double Play--Colorado -8.5 vs Baylor
Double Play--Arizona +4 vs Oregon State
Illinois -2.5 vs Wisconsin
Miami, Fl -7 vs North Carolina
Ball State -13 vs Central Michigan
Vanderbilt +7.5 vs Auburn
Wyoming -3 vs TCU
Texas A&M -6.5 vs Oklahoma State
Florida State -18 vs NC State
Georgia +2 vs Tennessee
Nevada -3.5 vs Fresno
USC -38.5 vs Stanford
UCLA -20.5 vs Notre Dame
North Texas +7 vs ULaLa
Troy -19 vs Florida Atlantic
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 2:53am -
0 likes
Dr. Chad
16-3-1 and has released his Friday and Saturday plays.
FRIDAY is UTAH and Angels in baseball.
SATURDAY is Air FORCE, Minnesota, East Carolina, Auburn, San JOSE ST, and Louisiana LAFAYETTE
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 4:52am -
0 likes
POWERTRAIN (NCAAFB BEST BETS 6-0):
BIG AL Championship Play (4-0):
FLORIDA
C T O 11* ( 2-0-1 ):
CLEMSON
SPORTSBANK 500* ( 7-1 ):
NORTHCOAST EARLY BIRD ( 4-1 ):
MISSISSIPPI STATE
PURELOCK NCAAFB ( 4-1 ):
VANDERBUILT
The Eck Man ( 5~0 Best Bets ):
USC
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:03pm -
0 likes
Larry Ness' 20* Conference GOY (PERFECT 4-0 in CFB '07 with 20* plays!)-Saturday
My 20* play is on Rutgers at 8:00 ET. Last year, with Rutgers ranked in the top-10 (No. 7) for the first time in school history and one of just four unbeatens remaining in CFB at 9-0, the Scarlet Knights lost at Cincinnati, 30-11! In fact, that win at Nippert Stadium was the start of Cincy's current eight-game winning streak! The Bearcats' convincing 52-23 win at San Diego St last Saturday, improved their record to 5-0 this year, marking their best start since beginning the 1954 campaign with eight wins. Meanwhile, Rutgers lost to Maryland last Saturday, 34-24 (as huge favorites!). Head coach Brian Kelly (via Div II Grand Valley State and Central Michigan) has brought a new wide-open attack to the offense, with both Ben Mauck (Wake transfer) and LY's starter Grutza, thriving. Mauck (70.0% / 9-2 ratio) is back in the starting role and Cincy's running game averages 193.0 YPG (4.6 per), giving the team excellent balance. The Cincy D allows just 10.6 PPG (4th) but the key has been the Bearcats' plus-14 turnover ratio (21 takeaways!). Rutgers has a very good D itself (276.0 YPG / 15.3 PPG) plus playmakers on offense led by Heisman Trophy candidate, RB Ray Rice (132.0 YPG / 5.6 YPC / 10 TDs). QB Mike Teel has made great strides TY, completing 62.4% with a 10-2 ratio (55.4% and a 12-13 ratio in '06), throwing to WRs Underwood (21.5 per / 4 TDs) and Britt (23.3 per / 3 TDs). Rutgers has two ways to go here. The team will either let LW's loss carry over or the Scarlet Knights will bounce back. I like what Greg Schiano has built here and I like that he stayed, when everyone expected him "to go," after LY's 11-2 season. Cincy is the perfect opponent to get Rutgers' season back on track. Revenge is a huge motivator and the Bearcats' 5-0 record has been built on a very weak schedule plus that ridiculous TO margin of plus-14. This year, Cincy has the target on its back, not Rutgers. While Rutgers was off on September 22 and lost at home to Maryland last week. the Bearcats are playing for the SIXTH straight week plus the Bearcats are coming back from their first visit to California in 49 years! Big East GOY 20* Rutgers.
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:04pm -
0 likes
Special K
20* Vanderbilt
20* Missouri
15* Tennessee
15* Clemso
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:04pm -
0 likes
seabass
100 UNLV
50 w mich
50 usc
20 FLA
20 fla atl
20 ILL
20 wash st
20 tenn
20 utep
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:04pm -
0 likes
BettingResource
Picks ;
Oct 06: CFB: Ohio St - Purdue
Pick: Purdue +7 Odd: 1.91
Risk: 7 units Return:
Oct 06: CFB: Florida - LSU
Pick: Florida +7 Odd: 1.91
Risk: 7 units Return:
Oct 06: NHL: Washington - Carolina
Pick: Ot included: Washington -1.5 Odd: 3.20
Risk: 7 units Return:
Oct 06: NHL: Anaheim - Pittsburgh
Pick: Ot included: Pittsburgh -1.5 Odd: 2.58
Risk: 7 units Return:
Oct 06: NHL: Los Angeles - St. Louis
Pick: Ot included: Lost Agneles -1.5 Odd: 3.15
Risk: 7 units Return:
Wise-guy
Oct 06: CFB: Nebraska - Missouri
Pick: Nebraska +6 Odd: 1.91
Risk: 10 units Return:
Oct 06: CFB: Florida International - Troy
Pick: Florida International +19 Odd: 1.91
Risk: 10 units Return:
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:05pm -
0 likes
OC Dooley 5*
Illinois
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:06pm -
0 likes
Blazer
4 Purdue
3 Vandy
3 Baylor
3 Maryland
Prime Star - 4*Ga.Tech
css sports
early game
c mich +13 1/2
Mike Neri Sports - Late Service
BACK TOMORROW AFTER 11:35 EST FOR YOUR NEXT UPDATE.
Saturday October 6, 2007
BASEBALL
Chicago Cubs w/Hill -180 Risk 1 Unit to make .55 Units 6:05 EST
OPINIONS: Colorado w/Jimenez
Current Baseball Run: 50-31 PLUS 8.25 Units.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
FOUR STAR: 311 West Virginia -27 12 NOON EST
FOUR STAR: 388 UCLA -22 8:00 EST
THREE STAR: 338 Wyoming -3 2:00 EST
THREE STAR: 385 Ohio St -7 8:00 EST
THREE STAR: 393 Arizona St -8.5 4:00 EST
YEAR TO DATE COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORDS
ONE STAR: 5-5
TWO STAR: 2-2
THREE STAR: 8-7
FOUR STAR: 2-5
FIVE STAR: 1-0
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:07pm -
0 likes
Net Prophet
CFB:
Illinois -2' over Wisconsin
Vanderbilt +8 over Auburn
Georgia -1' over Tennessee
Nevada -3 over Fresno State
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:07pm -
0 likes
Rocketman's 5* is Virginia Tech
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:07pm -
0 likes
ATS Lock Club
8 units on Western Michigan (-8) over Akron, 7:00
6 units on Kansas State (-3) over Kansas, 12:00noon
6 units on UL Monroe (+3) over Arkansas State, 7:00
5 unitson Mississippi (-12 1/2) over Louisiana Tech, 2:00
5 units on Florida Atlantic (+17) over South Florida, 3:30
5 units on Colorado (-9) over Baylor, 7:00
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:08pm -
0 likes
Northcoast
5-gom-Vandy+8
4-clem
4-miami-7
4-missouri-6
3-Tx A&M-6-
3-Maryland+3-
3-UNLV+5-
3-Oreg. St.-3
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:08pm -
0 likes
Php Sides(PPP)
5% Georgia Tech –3.5
4% Illinois –2.5
4% Arizona St –9
3% Georgia –1
3% Arizona +3
PHP TOTALS
5% OVER 60 BOWLING GREEN / BOSTON COLLEGE
3% OVER 53 NORTHWESTERN / MICHIGAN ST
3% UNDER 54 OKLAHOMA / TEXAS
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:08pm -
0 likes
NORTHCOAST
CONFIRMED
SMALL COLLEGE
northern illinois
MARQUEE
lsu
TOTALS
3*
san diego state over
georgia over
baylor under
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:09pm -
0 likes
Steam Plays
393 Arizona State -8½
320 Michigan State -14½
362 Tennessee U Under 57
388 UCLA -20½
434 Boise State -23
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:09pm -
0 likes
ATS Financial Package
Rutgers -4..............4 Units
Miami,FL. -7............4 Units
Central Fla. -3 1/2.....4 Units
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:10pm -
0 likes
Scott Spreitzer
Pancake Play = USC
All star Sports
5*Ohio State
5*Wyoming
3 Nevada
3 Missouri
Maryland
Lenny ~ Stevens
20* oklahoma
20* Georgia
10* Illinois
10* arizona ST
10* Tulsa
Coach Ron Meyer
Florida +7
Coach's Consensus Mismatch Game of the Year
UNLV +5.5
LeRoy's "Money Talks" Handicapping Tournament
Marc Lawrence's Selections:
New Orleans Saints - 3 over Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons + 8 over Tennessee Titans
St Louis Rams + 3 1/2 over Arizona Cardinals
U of Houston + 11 over Alabama
Purdue + 7 1/2 over Ohio State
Florida & LSU UNDER 47
BEST BET -- Florida + 7 over LSU
Paul Stone' Selections:
Georgia - 1 over U of Tennessee
Oklahoma - 12 over Texas
Missouri - 6 over Nebraska
TCU & Wyoming UNDER 40 1/2
Iowa & Penn State UNDER 39
U of Houston & Alabama OVER 57 1/2
BEST BET---Kansas St -3.5 over Kansas
James Manos' Selections
Maryland + 3 1/2 over Georgia Tech
UNLV + 5 over Air Force
Purdue + 7 1/2 over Ohio State
Wake Forest & Duke OVER 48
Illinois - 2 1/2 over Wisconsin
U of Cincinnati + 4 over Rutgers
BEST BET -- Vanderbilt + 8 over Auburn
Frank B's Selections
Detroit Lions & Washington Redskins UNDER 46
Atlanta Falcons + 8 over Tennessee Titans
Purdue + 7 1/2 over Ohio State
Chicago Bears & Green Bay Packers UNDER 41
Green Bay Packers - 3 over Chicago Bears
Kansas State - 3 1/2 over Kansas
BEST BET -- U of Cincinnati & Rutgers UNDER 52 1/2
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:12pm -
0 likes
Wolkosky Milan
10* BAYLOR +9
10* KANSAS +3½
10* ARMY -6½
10* WYOMING -3
10* NWU/MSU UNDER 53
10* CMU/BALL UNDER 67½
10* TUL/ARMY OVER 44
Free: TEXAS TECH -24½
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:12pm -
0 likes
Doc's college game of year..confirmed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7* Ill -2.5
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:12pm -
0 likes
Root
No Limit -Rutgers
Millionaire- Tenn
Billionaire- Illinois
Perfect Play- Wyoming
Insider Circle- Wash St.
Moneymaker- Okla St.
Chairman- Kansas
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:13pm -
0 likes
NORTHCOAST
Private Play Hot Line
Big Dog Play Of The Week
Explanation : A double digit dog we think will win outright is the Big Dog Play Of The week.(More than one play possible)
This Week :
Northwestern +15/+550 (over Mich.St.)
Bowling Green +20/+1000 (over Boston College)
Florida Atlantic +17/+700 (over South Florida)
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:13pm -
0 likes
ETHAN LAW
Sat, 10/06/07 - 2:30 PMEthan Law | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
341 UAB 18.5 (-110) Bodog vs 342 Mississippi St
Analysis: UAB (1-3) at MISSISSIPPI ST (3-2)
UAB (1-3 SU/2-1 ATS) will play their final non-conference game of the regular season this weekend when they travel to Starkville, Miss. to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-2 SU/2-2 ATS). Not much was expected in UAB this season as they are a very young team (27 players making their college debut in the season opener) and they also have a new coach. UAB played a respectable 34-24 loss at Florida State, but gave up 188 rushing yards and 332 passing. They followed that with a 22-0 win over Alcorn State and a hard fought 38-30 loss against Tulsa. Despite giving up 38 points the UAB offense managed over 400 yards of total offense against Tulsa Saturday in its C-USA opener. Their problem however is a defensive unit that is allowing 31 points, 236 yards rushing and 274 passing per game. Meanwhile, their opponent, Mississippi State is fresh off a very disappointing 38-21 loss at the hands of South Carolina, which ended a 3 game winning streak. The loss to South Carolina was not the end of the world as they were 11.5 point underdogs, but what is of concern for this team was the fact that they lost their starting quarterback Michael Henig has a broken hand and his backup, Josh Riddell, tore knee ligaments last week, leaving head coach Sylvester Croom with a pair of inexperienced freshmen to take over the reigns of an already vanilla offense.
The line opened at Mississippi State -16 and has since bet up to -18.5. When I first looked at this opening line I was very surprised to see UAB only getting 16 points. The reason for my surprise, was that UAB was a whopping 23 point underdog in last weeks match-up against Tulsa, yet this week are only +16 against a much stronger opponent that plays in a power conference. Interestingly, the current 18.5 line is a first for MSU head coach Sylvester Croom who has never been favored by 10 or more points since taking the job at Starkville, so from the start this is quit a task. Making this an even harder task is the fact that Mississippi State is just 3-9 ATS its last 12 home games and have struggled against UAB in their last two meetings winning 16-10 in overtime at UAB a year ago. Now they will have attempt to cover a 18.5 point-spread while playing with one of two freshman at the quarterback position. The very presence of the freshman quarterbacks will make MSU very one dimensional (if they werent already), and they will be unable to exploit UABs poor secondary. That will allow UAB to stack the line of scrimmage to focus their attention on stopping the run (specifically Anthony Dixon). In contrast, UAB has been played very hard for their rookie head coach Neil Callaway. Since their 55-18 loss at the hands of Michigan State in week #1, the Blazers have lost to Florida State by only 10, shut out Alcorn State, and lost to Tulsa by eight. Now it should be noted, that the 2.5 point line adjustment is likely due to the fact that UAB may also be without one of their starting QBs as Joseph Webb was injured against Tulsa. However, UAB has used somewhat of a quarterback by committee so if back-up (co-starter) Sam Hunt has to take the snaps, he is more the capable of making plays against the Mississippi State defense. MSU knows they should win this game, so dont be surprised if they use an 80-20 or greater differential running the football to avoid any costly turnovers. This is likely a very fast paced game with little scoring making the 18.5 points a fantastic play! Who knows you may not even need them!
Verdict: Miss St 24, UAB 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON UAB +18.5
Sat, 10/06/07 - 5:30 PMEthan Law | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
369 San Diego St. 13.0 (-110) Bodog vs 370 Colorado St.
Analysis: NOTE: THE CURRENT LINE IS +13.5 NOT +13.
SAN DIEGO ST (1-3) at COLORADO ST (0-4)
San Diego State laid an egg last weekend losing 52-23 as my top rated play to finish one of the worst performances in my 7 years betting career. If the public hadnt already buried this San Diego State team (1-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) team after their performances against Washington State and Cincinnati, Im sure this weekend the entire world will be on a Colorado State club that owns the nations longest losing streak (have not won since week #5 last season). If you have a working knowledge on how the lines are made they are based on many factors, including results, strength of schedule, power ratings and the publics overall perception of a certain team. From the public perspective this is a San Diego State defensive unit that looks lost as their defense seems unable to stop anybody, especially when you consider that they gave up 654 total yards of offense to Washington State, 479 (Arizona State) and 547 (Cincinnati)! The problem for SDSU is that they were breaking in new players as they returned only 4 defensive starters. Could anybody really expect the 8 new starters to have an easy time against the elite offense of the BCS PAA-10 programs or the offensive juggernaut of nationally ranked Cincinnati? Despite those result, SDSU does have some playmakers on defense withoutside linebackers, Russell Allen and Brett Martin, being the strength of the defense, while Ray Bass is a and Nick Osborn are both more then capable playmakers. On offense, SDSU will look to improve on the mediocre performance last season as they tallied just 270 total yards and 14 points a game. The mediocrity can be explained (of course) as many of their key offensive players were hurt and missed much of the season. But all hope is not lost for this season, as they return 8 starters along with many others with starting experience. Senior quarterback Kevin O'Connell runs the offense and running back Lynell Hamilton is certainly in discussion as one of the better backs in the league. The SDSU receivers are big and fast, the combination of running backs are big and fast, and O'Connell is a capable runner so dont be surprised that if this unit stays healthy that they will surprise a lot of teams as the season progresses. All of this translated into a win in our Premium selection when SDSU covered over ASU in week #2 of the season and in week #2 they got a confidence boosting 52-17 win over Portland State. Yes we lost last weekends selection, but all hope was not lost as their offense still managed to put up 23 points against a rather stout Bearcats defensive unit.
Meanwhile, Colorado State has stumbled the last three seasons, at 4-7 in 2004, 6-6 in 2005 and 4-8 SU & 4-7 ATS last season under head coach Sonny Lubick. As stated in my opening weeks analysis and win, there was some chatter of higher expectations this year as CSU will return most of the teams experienced players (10 returning starters on both sides of the ball), including the bulk of the offensive line, but after starting the season again at 0-4 those expectations have long evaporated. Their offense is led by senior quarterback Caleb Hanie (2,427 yards, 11 touchdowns, 12 picks while completing 61% of his tosses in 2006) and they get a key piece of their offensive puzzle back with the return of running back Kyle Bell. Overall, the Rams offense has played respectable, but their top passing receiver in tight end Kory Sperry has a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee, which will end his season forcing CSU to become even more one dimensional and relying heavy on their running back (the aforementioned) Kyle Bell. Bell, who gained 1,288 yards and scored 10 touchdowns in 2005, missed all of the 2006 campaign when he tore the ACL in his right knee just days prior to the teams opener. So far this season, Bells return has been a mixed bag through four games. After opening with 237 yards and three scores against Colorado and Cal, hes been stuffed by Houston and TCU for just 82 yards on 30 carries and some scouts believe that he is looking very hesitant as of late with speculation that his knee may be bothering him. At 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, Sperry has the size, speed and skills that make NFL scouts take notice. CSU hung with the faster and more athletically gifted Cal Bears for three quarters before Cal's cream rose to the top in a hard-fought 34-28 Cal win. Defensively, nine starters rejoin a unit that allowed 21.9 points, but 149 yards rushing per game. So far this season, their defense has been a huge disappointment allowing 31 points and over 180 yards rushing AND passing.
There are some rather interesting twists to this game as it has many interesting angles and side stories going on for both programs. Yes, San Diego State has taken their lumps in the first month of the season, but they played a more difficult schedule then CSU (the 10th most difficult schedule to date according to the NCAA) as their scheduled included two currently ranked teams and a third opponent from the Pac-10. In each game this season SDSU is getting better ITS (in the stats), which will eventually equal winning tickets from our perspective. Just about every article you will read talks about how CSU is the best 0-4 team in the country (and Im not sure is disagree with that assertion) but this is still a team with a terrible defense and an extremely limited offense (total offense and total defense rank 76th and 63rd in the nation, respectively). In contrast, SDSU has a bad defense, but their offense can be deadly! Going into last weekends contest against Cincinnati, SDSU ranked 15th in the nation in passing offense and with quarterback Kevin OConnell calling the plays an outright upset is never out of reach. Indeed, OConnell comes into this match-up with the leagues highest passer rating and he also shows surprising speed outside the pocket. OConnell should find success against this CSU defense that not only ranks last in the Mountain West, but may be without two key pieces of their secondary as safeties Mike Pagnotta and Klint Kubiak are doubtful for this weekends match-up! Then there is the fact that the road team is 7-2 ATS the last nine times these teams met and the fact thats SDSU is going into this one with a lot of confidence knowing full well that they have beat CSU outright 17-6 and 30-10 the last two seasons! Adding a little more motivation to the SDSU squad is the fact that over the past week, there has been a growing sentiment on campus that the football program should be dissolved due to its recent failures. Indeed, at the school monthly meeting on October 2 yesterday, the University Senate discussed a resolution that would recommend that University President Stephen Weber abolish the football program, effective at the end of this semester. The resolution was authored by Leon Rosenstein, an emeritus professor of philosophy. Well maybe Ill philosophizeSDSU Wins outright. Well maybe not but they should cover.
Verdict: Colorado St 24, San Diego St 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON SAN DIEGO STATE +13.5
Sat, 10/06/07 - 7:05 PMEthan Law | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
350 Baylor 9.0 (-110) Bodog vs 349 Colorado
Analysis: COLORADO (3-2) at BAYLOR (3-2)
InterestingBig 12 match-up featuring two very tough defenses. The last time I played Baylor in week #1 of the season we came up on the short end in a brutal loss despite putting up 21 points against TCU. The reason for me classifying it as a brutal loss is because Baylor actually managed 16 first downs (same as TCU), and a respectable 282 yards of total offense against one of the top stop units in the country. Indeed, the only difference came when Baylor quarterbacks threw a whopping four (4) interceptions, which killed our spread covering dreams. Baylor followed their week #1 performance with three consecutive wins against Rice, Texas State and Buffalo before losing in week #5 at Texas A&M. Meanwhile, their opponent, Colorado (3-2 SU & 3-1 ATS) is coming off a shocking 27-24 upset win over nationally ranked Oklahoma! In that win, Colorados quarterback Cody Hawkins (son of Colorado coach Dan Hawkins), was 22-of-36 passes for 220 yards last week. Although a lot of their offense came through the air, dont be folled as this team likes to grind it out on the gorund behind junior tailback Hugh Charles (110 yards against Oklahoma).
This is a Brutal letdown spot for Colorado, who won outright against Oklahoma last weekend. The win benefits us Baylor backers as it adds some substantial value to the point spread, and gives way to a huge situational letdown spot for Buffalo players. This is also a tough spot for an entirely different reason as Colorado just played three consecutive home games and now have to play a road contest against a very dangerous and feisty Baylor Bears team that is bitter over their performance last weekend at College Station. From that start we know that Colorado is a poor 2-9 SU & 2-8-1 ATS its last 11 road games. We also know that Colorado is a perfect 0-7 ATS in their last seven Big 12 road games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games off a win. Indeed, the last time the Buffaloes came into Baylors house as the chalk (-20) the Bears won the game outright 42-30! From a fundamental aspect, in my week #1 analysis on this Baylor team I articulated how Baylor's move to the spread offense a year ago allowed it to average a school-record 275 passing yards per game. In the first game of this season we saw a continuation of that success as Baylor threw for 231 yards against a top notch TCU defense. Baylor followed that performance with 423 passing yards against Rice, 411 against Texas State, 276 against Buffalo before struggling against Texas A&M with only 194 passing yards. Overall their spread offense is 21st in the nation in passing offense, which should give this Colorado defensive enough to think about throughout the game. This will open the lanes for Baylors running backs and will allow Baylor to control dominating the time of possession. Look for the hung-over team to be easy picking for the hungry Bears squad.
Verdict: Colorado 21, Baylor 24
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BAYLOR +9
Sat, 10/06/07 - 4:00 PMEthan Law | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
394 Washington St. 9.5 (-110) Bodog vs 393 Arizona St.
Analysis: NOTE: THIS IS AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 UNIT MONEYLINE RECOMMENDATION ON THIS PLAY!
ARIZONA ST (5-0) at WASHINGTON ST (2-3)
After playing aslew of four (4) consecutive home games Arizona State (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) finally hit the road and flattened Stanford 41-3 last weekend. The Sun Devils started the Dennis Erickson era with a 45-3 dismantling of San Jose State, a big win over Colorado 33-14 followed by 34-13 (non cover) win over San Diego State. In week #4 they defeated Oregon State 44-32, rallying from a 19-point first-quarter hole, before finally hitting the road in Week #5 against Stanford. The ASU offense is loaded with ten starters returning! In their new head coach, ASU changed their offensive ideology a bit by spreading out the offense using multiple formations and plenty of shotgun sets. Through the first five games of the season the offense is averaging 39 points, 183 yards rushing and 275 yards passing per game. ASU likes to give their opponents the appearance that they are going to pass on virtually every down, but dont be fooled as this is still a team that likes to run the football. On defense, ASU is returning 6 starters to a defense that allowed more than 40 points in four of the final ten games last season. The Sun Devils play a 4-3 base while asking their linebackers and safeties to freelance and make plays all over the field. There are some quality players on this defense and some of the off-season question marks I wrote about last week have been answered as this is a defense that has dominated for five straight weeks. The numbers will soften a lot as Pac-10 play begins against some better opponents, but that wont change the fact that this is a far more physical and fundamentally sound unit than last year.
Meanwhile, Washington State (2-3 SU & 1-2 ATS) is absolutely loaded on offense which is averaging 29 points per game on 123 yards rushing and 295 passing behind experienced senior quarterback Alex Brink and starting wide receivers Michael Bumpus and Brandon Gibson. Against a very stout Wisconsin defense in week #1, the Cougars rushed for 157 yards in a 42-21 loss. WSU followed the Wisconsin game with two blowout wins over San Diego State 45-17 and Idaho 45-28 before running into then No. 1 in the Nation USC in a 47-14 road loss. In their last game (second consecutive road contest), WSU lost on the road to Arizona 48-20. Despite that rather shocking final result, it should be noted that WSU managed 27 first downs (Arizona 28) and had well over 400 yards of total offense. As such, despite the result, it was a very close game ITS and turnovers were key to the final misleading score.
This is a brutal situation spot for Arizona State. After playing their first four (4) games at home this season, this is the second of back-to-back conference road games. That situational spot sets up some rather interesting technical numbers as ASU is a rather unimpressive 8-14 SU & ATS their last 22 road games and are a perfect 0-7 ATSin the second game of a two-game road trip. To make matters worse, for Sun Devils is the fact that Washington State is playing with revenge for last seasons 33 point drubbing at the hands of ASU last season in Tempe. That instantly triggers a 3-7 ATS technical stat when ASU is favored against a conference opponent that is playing with revenge. Those are shocking numbers to say the least. Despite the fact that ASU is 5-0, an argument could be made that we are not really sure how good this team really is. Thats primarily due to the fact that ASU has had a cupcake schedule playing the likes of San Jose State, Colorado, San Diego State, Oregon State (the only quality opponent) and Stanford. If history repeats itself, ASU could be in for a rude awaking when they face some of the more dangerous teams in the PAC-10. As you will recall, ASU was able to dominate their non-conference schedule last season until they got killed (for the most part) in PAC-10 play. Lets not forget, that the one quality opponent they beat (Oregon State) actually out-gained them by over 100 yards and but for the five (5) turnovers OSU would have walked away with an easy win. Indeed, non of ASUs current opponents have had the ability to attack their one weak spot (their secondary), which could be in for a really rude awakening when quarterback Alex Brink and the nations 17th best passing offense takes the field. Brink is hitting 65% of his passes and has 15 touchdowns through the first five games of the season. Its early in the season, and with already 5 wins, ASU is virtually assured bowl-eligibility. WSU needs this game and look for a big effort from them this weekend!
Verdict: Arizona St 24, Washington St 31
PLAY 2* UNITS ON WASHINGTON STATE +9.5;
PLAY UNIT ON WASHINGTON STATE +$310
Sat, 10/06/07 - 3:30 PMEthan Law | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
358 Penn St. 9.0 (-110) Bodog vs 357 Iowa
Analysis: CHECK OUT THE PREGAME.COM FORUMS AS I HAVE ADDED SEVERAL 1/2 UNIT PLAYS FOR SATURDAYS ACTION. CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE POST!
IOWA (2-3) at PENN ST (3-2)
A battle ofBig 10 supremacy with both teams coming off bad weeks. Iowa (2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS) had a solid win against a very underrated Northern Illinois team in the season opener as running back Albert Young ran for 144 yards and a touchdown to lead the Hawkeyes to a 16-3 victory. They followed their week one victory with another solid effort at home against Syracuse in a 35-0 route before losing three consecutive games against Iowa State 13-15, Wisconsin 13-17 and Indiana 20-38. Dont be fooled by some of the rhetoric as this is not a very good Iowa club. They struggle to move the ball on offense and their play of new quarterback Jake Christensen has been shaky. However, all is not lost as the tandem of quality running backs in Albert Young and Damian Sims, give Iowa a strong ground game but the play of their offensive line sometimes makes it impossible for them to get quality numbers. Dominique Douglas and Andy Brodell are emerging targets at wide receiver but its unlikely that first year quarterback Jake Christensen will have them outing up big stats this season. On defense, the Hawkeyes return 8 starters led by end Ken Iwebema and one of the Big Ten's best lines. But their weak secondary is a concern especially against this possibly dangerous Penn State passing attack. Even more concerning is the fact their starting middle line backer Mike Klinkenborg is doubtful for this contest. Meanwhile, Penn State (3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS) is proving to be a Big 10 fraud, losing 2 in a row to Michigan 9-14 and Illinois 20-27. Senior quarterback Anthony Morelli has been ok this season but threw a whopping 5 interceptions in a 27-20 loss at Illinois. The defense has been the heart and soul of the team, but the last two games they allowed 166 rushing yards to Michigan and over 200 to Illinois.
This is a nightmare of a situational spot for the visiting Hawkeyes as they have to go into a very difficult venue to take on an angry and well coached opponent looking to rebound off two disappoint but hard fought affairs. Penn State owns fundamental unit-on-unit match-up advantages over Iowa on both sides of the ball as their 7th ranked defense will have little trouble containing the nations 102nd ranked offense. Penn States loan weakness would be their run stopping unit but Iowa will be unable to exploit the defensive line because the Hawkeye's offensive line is a mess and the run offense is averaging just 3.6 yards per game. That will enable the Lions to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Motivationally, there are lots of grumbling around campus as to the play of this Penn State team this season after starting the season strong. However, with the likes of Wisconsin, Ohio State and Purdue left on the schedule, time hasn't run out quite yet, and Penn State will look to build their confidence with a big win on Saturday. The technicals seal the deal as Iowa is 0-7 ATS their last 7 on the road, while Penn State is 18-1 SU & 12-6 ATS their last 19 at home. Lay the number.
Verdict: Penn St 34, Iowa 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON PENN STATE -9
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:14pm -
0 likes
ASA 7-Star College Game of the Year - Wyoming (-2) over TCU Saturday – 1:00 pm CST
TCU has long been the top dog in the Mountain West Conference but it has fallen off this year as its getting improved competition within the league. The Horned Frogs are 3-2 on the year but have struggled away from home, going 0-2 and losing by an average of 12 points per game. Wyoming, on the other hand, is 2-0 at home this year with an average margin of victory of 17 points a game.
Offense has been TCU’s Achilles heel this year as it is 88th in the nation in total offense and 97th in scoring offense. The Horned Frogs are averaging just 20.4 points and 338.8 yards per game this year and will a tough time matching either of those totals against a stout Wyoming stop unit. The Cowboys are fourth in the country with just 248.8 yards surrendered per game and have been especially tough against the run with just 72 rushing yards allowed per game, good for eighth in the country.
Wyoming’s offensive stats aren’t overwhelming but the Cowboys should be able to move the ball against a TCU defense that hasn’t often been tested this year. Wyoming is averaging 29.7 points per game in its three wins this year and boasts a solid running game led by Devin Moore, who is averaging 108.9 yards per game on 6.8 yards per carry. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, have had their defensive statistics aided by a weak schedule featuring offensively-challenged teams. TCU’s three wins have come against Baylor, SMU and Colorado State, three teams not know for their offensive prowess.
The Cowboys are 3-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 10 points at Boise State, where it’s nearly impossible for visiting teams to win. Additionally, Wyoming will be well-rested for this game as it is coming off a bye week. TCU, conversely, has yet to have its bye week this season and is coming off a very physical battle with Colorado State. Expect the Cowboys to take advantage. Take Wyoming minus the points.
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:15pm -
0 likes
Ed Slick
1 Auburn Okl St Aub Nev Idaho Aforce Tulsa Troy Oreg St
_________________
Gator
3 Auburn
_________________
Dolphin
5 South Florida
3 Ariz St Miami-fla
_________________
Cokin
SOLID GOLD: THREE GUARANTEED OUTRIGHT UNDERDOG WINNERS!
Pick(s):
(315) Wisconsin vs (316) Illinois
Take (315) Wisconsin
I 've been a big Illinois believer since before the season started. But now everyone's arrived at the party and it's time to go the other way. Illinois has lost the last two games on the stats but managed to win both. That's lost on the public as they are now flocking to this team, thus we're seeing them now favored at home against an unbeaten opponent. Wisconsin hasn't been dominating, but they do keep on winning. Illinois is now in a new scenario as they're suddenly expected to win, and they'll have to prove to me they're able to handle that pressure. I'm expecting a very tough game here and feel the value is clearly with Wisconsin and the points.
(389) UNLV vs (390) Air Force
Take (389) UNLV
Rebels are back on the road off the extremely disappointing loss at Reno. But they're 1-0 in MWC play so the letdown should not occur. It's a great physical matchup for UNLV. They have a big and improving OL that should shred the small Air Force defensive front. I expect UNLV RB Summers to have a monster day. The Falcons were as fraudulent a 3-0 squad as you'll ever see and the results the last two weeks have been far more realistic. They're also running the shotgun more frequently and UNLV sees that every day in practice. I see the Rebels as the better team and expect them to win this game.
(391) Tulsa vs (392) UTEP
Take (392) UTEP
This might be the highest scoring game of the day. The Tulsa no-huddle attack is rolling in a big way. But their defense is pretty awful and the Hurricane is running into a very excited UTEP squad fresh off a spectacular OT win at SMU. The Miners are running the ball very well and should continue to do so here. Big home field edge for UTEP and the Miners are perfect as HD's since Price arrived. Expect a wild contest with many ebbs and flows, and it should go to the wire. Grabbing a FG with the improving home team is the way I'm playing, and I feel UTEP has an excellent chance to win it outright.
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:19pm -
0 likes
SERVICE REPORT
ATS Lock Club...............8*W.Michigan
......................................6*Kansas State & UL Monroe
......................................5*Mississipp i, Florida-Atl & Colorado
......................................4*Rutgers, Miami(Fla) & C.Florida
Big Ten Sports...............Ohio State
Brandon Lang................30*Cincinnati
.......................................10*Vanderbi lt
.......................................5*Illinois, Indiana, Clemson & Maryland
Dave Cokin.....................Under The Hat: Tennessee & UCLA
.......................................Window Plays: Florida & Indiana
.......................................System Plays: Oregon State & Florida-Atl
.......................................Big Shot: C.Michigan & Temple
........................................3*Georgia Tech & Oklahoma
"Doc"..............................Game Of The Year: Illinois
Doctor Bob.....................4*UCLA
......................................3*Georgia Tech, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska
......................................2*Michigan & Arizona
Dolphin..........................5*South Florida
Frank Magliosa..............Wyoming, Baylor & Maryland
Gold Sheet....................Super Power 7: Kansas State
......................................Top: Maryland
......................................Regular: Maimi(Fla), Boise St, Baylor, Missouri
Guarantee Picks.............LSU
Jim Feist.........................Inner Circle: Bowling Green
.......................................Platinum: Wyoming & Indiana
.......................................Personal Best: Texas Tech & Illinois
.......................................Total Of The Week: Fla/LSU(U)
.......................................5*Duke 4*C.Michigan 3*Oklahoma
Joe Gavazzi(PPP)...........5*Georgia Tech & BG/BColl(U)
.......................................4*Arizona State & Illinois
.......................................3*Georgia, Arizona, Okla/Tex(U)
Kelso Sturgeon...............Game Of The Week: UNLV
Las Vegas Sports............Rutgers, Illinois & Texas A&M
Lenny Stevens................20*Oklahoma & Georgia
.......................................10*Illinois , Arizona State & Tulsa
LT Profits.........................Tulane & Miami(Oh)/Kent(U)
Northcoast.......................5*Vanderbilt
........................................4*Clemson, Miami(Fla), Missouri
........................................3*Maryland , Texas A&M, UNLV & Oklahoma State
.......................................Opinions: Miss St, Illinois, Rutgers, Purdue
Northcoast(Small Coll)....3*Northern Illinois
Northcoast(Totals)..........3*SDSU/CSU(O), Ga/Tenn(O) & Colo/Bay(U)
Pointwise.......................4*Florida State & LSU
Purelock.........................Vanderbilt
Rocketman Sports..........5*Virginia Tech
.......................................4*E.Michiga n, Colorado & Purdue
......................................2*West Virginia
Randy Radtke.................Vanderbilt, Nebraska, Tennessee & Florida
Special "K".....................20*Vanderiblt
Texas Sports Brokers.....10*Notre Dame 5*Kansas State
Underdog Sportsline......Top: Bowling Green
.......................................Reg: Duke & Tulane
VIP Lock Club.................1000% North Carolina
........................................250% Virginia
Wayne Root....................Billionaire: Illinois
.......................................Millionaire : Tennessee
.......................................No Limit: Rutgers
.......................................Perfect Play: Wyoming
.......................................Insider: Washington State
.......................................Money Maker: Oklahoma State
.......................................Chairman Of The Board: Kansas
Winners Path..................Top: North Carolina
WiseGuys........................10*Texas
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:33pm -
0 likes
David Malinski
REASON FOR PICK: 4* OHIO over BUFFALO
In the first two head-to-head meetings between former Nebraska coach Frank Solich and former Nebraska QB Turner Gill, Solich’s Ohio team has been absolutely dominating – the Bobcats rolled to leads of 20-0 and 27-0 at halftime, won the final scoreboards by a 76-27 count, and out-rushed the Bulls 530-178. In truth, not all that much has changed since the last meeting. So why is this line so short? It is the sort of thing that happens often in college football, and opens the door for easy opportunities for us.
The stat tables tell an interesting story for this one. They tell the marketplace that Ohio can not run the football, despite the presence of senior RB Kalvin McRae, who is off of back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons and All-MAC honors each time. And the stat tables shout out that the Buffalo offense is improved this season, perhaps a sign that they are developing in Gill’s schemes. But while the stats are what they are, the message behind them is dead wrong.
Yes, the Ohio ground game has struggled to get going against non-conference competition. But that is not news – the Bobcats have never been able to run against class teams outside of the MAC under Solich. Two years ago they opened with 62 vs. Northwestern, 94 vs. Pittsburgh and 87 vs. Virginia Tech, but then went on to record more than 300 in three conference games, including a 307 at Buffalo. Then LY it was a (-6) vs. Rutgers and 43 vs. Missouri early in the campaign, and a 47 vs. Southern Miss in their bowl appearance. But six times they rambled for more than 200 in league play, including a 223 vs. Buffalo. So what meaning do we attach to the 37 vs. Wyoming and 38 vs. Virginia Tech this season? More of the same old, same old. In the MAC opener vs. Kent State last week McRae was finally on the verge of getting untracked, netting 74 yards on 16 carries, but the scoreboard deficit forced the Bobcats to the air and away from their preferred plan of attack.
Note how the scoreboard got the way that it did, however – it was one of the more bizarre games of the season in terms of penalty influence on the outcome. Ohio was flagged 16 times for 155 yards, and extended Kent drives via the following – 1. Roughing the passer; 2. Roughing the punter; 3. Off-sides on a FG attempt, which led to a TD; and 4. Three different pass interference calls. From Solich - â€I’ve never been associated with a game like that in my career…It just was a nightmare in terms of us hurting ourselves.†Now a back-to-business approach gets us something that we can use as well as any single concept in beating college football – picking on a bad team when the favorite is coming to play with a chip on their shoulder, instead of letting up. And Buffalo is a bad team. The key for us is that the Bull weaknesses do not show in the stat columns. Here is why -
What looks like a vastly improved offense really is not. The Bulls get credit for ringing up 24 points and 395 yards at Penn State, but they were trailing 31-3 in the fourth quarter and did not reach the end zone against the first-team Lion defense. The following week it was 21 points and 363 yards vs. Baylor, but once again look at the distribution – they entered the fourth quarter trailing 27-7, before getting 176 of their yards in the final 15 minutes. It was more of the same against Ball State this past Saturday, with the offense not scoring until down 35-0 midway through the third quarter. Yet all of that late production vs. reserve defenders goes into the record books as though the game were on the line with each drive. As for the defense, all we can say is ouch. Baylor can not run a lick, and had 229 yards on this field (the Bears have 249 rushing yards in their other four games combined), while Ball State was down to its 3rd string RB last week and gouged the Bulls for a season-high of 274.
Look for this game to resemble the past two meetings between these programs, with all of those misleading results giving us a cheap price to lay.
EXPERT: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 5* PENN STATE over IOWA
In a battle of Big 10 disappointments we have one team that is awfully good, and has barely been misfiring, and another that is simply lost. The fact that the oddsmakers have not fully evaluated the two situations properly gives us an excellent value here, and we go to a higher rating in a game that has the kind of kindling that can ignite into a rout.
Iowa is a mess right now, and we do not believe that it can be fixed. But because the Hawkeyes carry such a strong reputation this line remains in single digits. All this despite the fact they carry the Big 10’s longest losing streak (seven games, five in double figures, including losses to the likes of Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota by 10 or more) and are bereft of talent in the passing game, with injuries and suspensions having taken away any chance this unit had to compete. It was one thing to lose Dominique Douglas before the season started, but having now also lost WR’s Andy Brodell and Trey Stross and TE Tony Moeaki there is precious little to work with for sophomore QB Jake Christenson. And Christenson does not have the experience or athleticism to carry the load without significant help.
What happens when you can not find anyone to throw to? You get sacked. And we are not just being facetious – only Andrew Robinson of Syracuse has been sacked more this season than Christenson. As a result they are a disastrous 25-80 in 3rd down conversions this season, by far the worst in the Big 10. And it is not as though the Hawkeyes have been playing a murderer’s row of defenses - a pedestrian Indiana unit registered nine sacks in Iowa City this past Saturday, and in their only two road games they managed the season lows in both points and total yards allowed by Iowa State and Wisconsin (they also managed only 16 points vs. woeful Northern Illinois on a neutral field at Chicago, back on week #1 when they were much healthier than they are now). Through five games one out of every nine offensive snaps has been a play that lost yardage (38 of 342), and that spells bad news now as they face the toughest defense they have on their 2007 schedule, particularly one that will be in an angry mood this week. And the problems are not just on offense – a defense that is missing LB Mike Klinkenborg and FS Devan Moylan just gave up 6.6 yards per play in that loss to Indiana.
While Iowa is floundering, Penn State lost back-to-back road games at Michigan and Illinois in which the Nittany Lions were just a bounce from winning each time. Which, of course, would have made this line much higher. The ability to make plays has been there (Anthony Morelli had pass completions of 47, 43, 42 and 37 yards at Illinois), but finishing has been elusive. All five of the field goals kicked at Ann Arbor and Champaign came after the offense stalled inside the 15-yard line, and there were also two red zone turnovers in the loss to Illinois. That led to two defeats despite the fact that they gained 5.2 yards per play while allowing only 4.5 against two solid opponents, and that is not priced into this line at all.
When a talented team has suffered the kind of frustrations that State has the last two weeks it can often led to a major breakout, especially with the catharsis of returning home. We expect to see just that in this one, and a depleted Iowa team simply does not have the tools to counter; if anything it looks like things can go from bad to worse for the Hawkeyes.
EXPERT: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 4* OKLAHOMA/TEXAS Under
It is most unusual for Oklahoma and Texas to show up for the Red River Shootout off of a loss – this is the first time it has happened in this millennium. It is also unusual for us to see a Total this high with the quality of defenders that will be on the field, and with Bob Stoops and Mack Brown on the sidelines. That gives us an outstanding value for this play.
One of the keys in breaking down college coaches is to study how they do via a phrase that fits well for this setting – what happens when they need to “circle the wagons� In this case it is an easy read, and a logical one. Both Stoops and Brown have lost nine regular season games apiece from 2000 through the current campaign and here is the defensive allowance the following week – 14.4 per game for Texas, and 8.7 per game for Oklahoma. When trouble arise both want to go back to defense first, and given the nature of last week’s defeats it will be more of the same, with most of the offensive focus on merely taking care of the ball, and giving the defense a chance to make the plays to turn the game.
Texas turned the ball over four times in that loss to Kansas State, and allowed touchdowns on an interception return, punt return and kickoff return. As such what goes un-noticed was a superb defensive performance, with the Wildcats being held to 3.6 yards per play. It was the third time in the last four games that the Longhorns have allowed less than 4.0 per snap, and Brown will not have any qualms at all about turning this game over to his defense.
We can expect the same from Stoops. His Sooners turned the ball over three times in their loss to Colorado, and it led to a huge imbalance of 82 offensive snaps for the Buffaloes to just 46 for his team. Because of all of that time on the field the 381 yards allowed by the Oklahoma defense was not all that bad. But in the first real test away from home (the win at Tulsa should be considered as a neutral field) it was a long day for QB Sam Bradford, and Stoops will certainly plan on protecting him in the early stages of this one.
EXPERT: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 5* GEORGIA over TENNESEE
There might be more assumptions built into this line than any other on the board this week, and while we are not going to see the +3 needed for a 6* Rating, we have no problem calling for a 5* in a game in which the underdog can easily control. After all, it would not be anything new.
The single most remarkable performance trend in college football is the 16-3 SU record that Mark Richt has compiled in SEC road games since taking over at Georgia. That is a tremendous achievement at the venues that his team must play in, and it is a tribute to the way that he has put his program together. Perhaps the best example of a program on the rise vs. a program in decline is the head-to-head meetings that he has had here in Knoxville vs. Phil Fulmer, with the Bulldogs not only going 3-0 in those games, but winning by a combined 42 points in the process. Now for once there is also a major revenge motive as well, after Tennessee turned a 24-7 deficit in Athens LY into an improbable 51-33 victory, and we do not see anything in the matchups or coaching that gets in the way of a major turnaround. Somehow the oddsmakers and betting markets do, despite the SU run by Richt on the SEC road, and the fact that Fulmer and the current Tennessee senior class are 0-10 ATS as conference home favorites the last 3+ seasons.
If anything this Volunteer squad is even weaker than its predecessors. They were badly out-classed in those step-up games at California and Florida, allowing 104 points and 1,015 yards, and outside of the play of QB Erik Aigne we can not find a strength. The RB corps is average by past Tennessee standards; the WR corps even worse than that, and the defense has simply been abysmal. We are into October now and they are still allowing 5.2 per rush for the full season, and except for Southern Miss falling behind here and having to ignore the ground game, every Vol opponent has reached 175 yards both running and passing. That includes Arkansas State, which had five plays of 27 yards or more on this field. The special teams have been anything but special. They have already allowed punt returns for TD’s in two different games, and Arkansas State set the all-time school record for kickoff return yardage here two weeks ago.
Contrast that with a Georgia team that will only get better as the season goes on. Matthew Stafford is already showing some of that brilliant potential at QB, and in Thomas Brown and Knowshon Moreno they have the kind of RB’s that Fulmer can only dream of this season. Look for the ground game to establish itself early against that soft Tennessee rush defense, which enables Richt to dictate the offensive flow that he wants, and with the offense taking such good care of the ball so far (four turnovers in 350 snaps) it just becomes a matter of time before the superior team and coaching staff takes this game over.
EXPERT: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 4* WESTERN MICHIGAN over AKRON
We have been watching the opener of -10 trickle down all week in this one, but it looks as though -8 is as low as it is going to get. For us it is now time to go.
Many times line movements like this come for reasons that can easily be understood – bottom line statistics can actually show that the better defensive team is the underdog in this one. But we are not sure that those numbers tell the truth, and as such not only do we have excellent timing here, but great value as well. Yes, the Western Michigan defensive numbers have been a disappointment, with a veteran unit that was solid LY expected to be among the best in the MAC this fall – there are eight returning starters from a team that only allowed 19.9 points and 275 yards per game. But there are some prime reasons why the numbers are as bad as they are. First, of course, is the fact that they had to play at West Virginia and Missouri in the first three weeks of the season, sandwiched around a home game vs. Indiana. You are not going to stop those teams with MAC-calibre talent, especially when key cog Louis Delmas went down in the opener (he returned last week). But there were other circumstances in play that made the Broncos look much worse than they really were.
Bill Cubit lost defensive coordinator Scott Shafer to Stanford after LY’s unit played so well, one of five assistants that left, but managed to bring Bill Miller on board, who has an excellent resume. It is that adjustment period that explains why some of those performances were so bad. This, from Cubit – “Anytime you have change, it just takes time. We had all those coaching changes and you have so many habits you've done for two years, all of a sudden guys come in trying to do it better and sometimes kids revert back. Some of the mistakes defensively were because guys revert back to things they've done in the past which doesn't really fit the scheme.''
And from DE Zach Davidson, a returning starter - â€I think as a whole we're getting more comfortable with what our responsibilities are as defense. When we're comfortable we play better and this game (last week’s 42-28 win at Toledo) it all came together. From a defensive end standpoint, compared to last year, we definitely have a lot more responsibility, a lot more things to look at rather than just rushing in full speed. With this defense, you've got to think a little more, see things before you run in there. It took us a while to play like that.''
The bottom line? Despite those early struggles this may well be the best team in the MAC, with a defense that will only get better, and superb offensive balance. A deep and talented OL can open plenty of holes for Mark Bonds and Brandon West; WR Jamarko Simmons and TE Branden Ledbetter are excellent targets; and Tim Hiller can settle in to manage a game well at QB. As a result it was no surprise when they mashed Toledo on the road in their conference opener, leading 30-16 in first downs and amassing 261 rushing yards and 229 through the air. Now we expect them to only improve as the season goes on.
Akron has no such ability to improve on offense; the line is simply too young (only one senior starter) and the skill players are mediocre, at best. And while the defense shows solid numbers that unit is beginning to suffer from attrition, particularly the loss of John Mackey, who was the heart of the unit. The last three weeks they have been gouged for 820 yards rushing at 5.9 per carry, and with so many under-sized players up front it will only get worse as the season wears on. They stole a win vs. Kent State in their only conference game so far despite being out-gained by a full 2.0 per play, and are in over the heads in this one.
The talent gap between these two showed in a 17-0 Western win at Akron in the final regular season game LY, when the Broncos led 18-8 in first downs and 327-119 in total offense. In the conference home opener we expect them to play their best game of the season to date, carrying the momentum from the Toledo win into a much better performance than the marketplace is calling for.
EXPERT: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 4* FLORIDA/L.S.U. Under
A year ago we wrote a GRIDLINES column entitled “Urban Renewal?â€, which notes that while Florida was indeed winning games under their new head man, it was not quite the way that was expected coming in – Meyer’s spread offense was actually struggling against the better defenses in the SEC. That makes perfectly good sense to us. There is not a conference in the land with faster personnel on the defensive side of the ball, and the tactics that he used to exploit opponents in the MAC and Mountain West will have a difficult time getting over the hump. But with a National Championship ring and a great reputation behind him, these offensive difficulties will not be perceived at all in the marketplace, which is why we see such a high Total this week.
It has been defense, more than anything else, that Florida has been winning with in the Meyer years, and while there were some explosive offensive performances in September against weak competition, it is going to have to be defense again. While younger than LY’s stellar unit this group can more than get the job done, with perhaps even more quickness, and they match up well here – they have not allowed 100 yards rushing in a game yet, and can stand up to the Tiger ground game at the line of scrimmage. Do that, and there is not much fear of the inexperienced LSU passing attack beating you, especially with Early Doucet still not healthy. And while the offense sputtered much of the way in that loss to Auburn last week, note that the Gator defense had 12 tackles behind the line of scrimmage in that one.
Florida will not have the best defense on the field in this game, however, no team playing LSU this season will be able to make that claim. Led by the unblockable Glenn Dorsey this defensive front is going to wreak havoc on all comers, and as a unit they rate near the top of the national charts in every significant category. They also match up awfully well to the Meyer designs, which have the ball ending up in the hands of QB Tim Tebow too often. Tebow has taken far too much contact already this season, which is going to create a gradual fatigue over time, and the size and speed of the Tigers can led to a lot of punishing hits. From a tactical standpoint this will be the third go-round between Les Miles and Meyer, and in the first two the Gators have only managed a combined total of 25 first downs and 494 yards, which tells us what this class of athlete can do vs. that offense. Florida did manage to split those games on the scoreboard, but that was largely a result of going +7 in the turnover column.
This should open as a classic heavyweight fight – both teams jockey for field position early to avoid making the first big mistake. But we are not sure that the tempo ever does pick up, with both defenses having the athletes and the acumen to handle what the other side brings.
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 12:35pm -
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ATS 2 (1-1) (4-8) (6* 3-1) (7-4) LOCK CLUB 8* W MICHIGAN - 6 kansas state, ul monroe - 5* mississippi, florida atlantic, colorado --- FINANCIAL 4* rutgers, miami florida, central florida
BEN BURNS 1 (10-4) (2-3) (2-4) SEC GAME OF YEAR TENNESSEE ---- WAC GAME OF MONTH FRESNO STATE ----- TV TOTAL OF THE MONTH MISSOURI OVER ----- NON CONFERENCE MAIN EVENT FLORIDA ATLANTIC ----- BIG 12 GAME OF WEEK BAYLOR ---- ESPN GAME OF WEEK RUTGERS ---- east carolina
BIG AL 2 (5* 2-1) (3* 3-3) (10 DIME 2-1) (8-6) SEC GOY FLORIDA --- CONFERENCE USA GOY CENTRAL FLORIDA ---- BIG 12 GAME OF MONTH BAYLOR ---- texas, iowa, washington state, wyoming ------CLUB GAMES TEN DIME UTEP ---- FLORIDA ATLANTIC, RUTGERS, VANDERBILT, KANSAS STATE, FLORIDA
BILL BAILEY 5 (100* 1-1) (50* 0-3) (25* 0-1) 100 TENNESSEE
BANKER 3 (500* 2-0) (400* 4-3) (4-2) 300 northern illinois
BLAZER 4 (4* 3-2) (3* 6-5) 4 PURDUE - 3 vandy, baylor, maryland
BOXER SPORTS (0-1) (2* 9-16) (1-1)
BRANDON LANG 2 (20-25* 4-2) (15-13) 30* CINCINNATI - vanderbilt, illinois, indiana, clemson, maryland
CASH 5 (1-2) (4-2) (13-9) NOTRE DAME, WASH STATE, AIR FORCE, SAN DIEGO STATE, ul lafayette, troy, wyoming, penn state
COACHES CORNER 1 (0-2) (15-11) WASHINGTON STATE, san diego state, baylor, penn state, uab
COWTOWN (3* 2-1) (10-7)
COMPUTER KIDS 1 (3-0) (3-6) (3-3) UL MONROE UNDER, SO FLORIDA UNDER, LSU OVER, GEORGIA OVER
DAVE COKIN 2 (14-14) (8-7) SOLID GOLD wisconsin, unlv, utep ---- TENNESSEE, UCLA, FLORIDA, INDIANA, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, TEMPLE, OREGON STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC
DOLPHIN 2 (5* 2-1) (8-5) 5* SOUTH FLORIDA -3 miami florida, arizona state
DIAMOND STAR (1-1) (2* 7-5)
DIRECTOR SPORTS (1-0) (19-11)
DOC ENTERPRISES 1 (6* 2-1) (5* 1-4) (18-12) 5* CLEMSON, SAN JOSE STATE- bowling green, missouri, wyoming, minnesota, houston -------7* GOY ILLINOIS
DOCTOR BOB 1 (4* 0-1) (3* 1-4) (2* 5-7) 4* UCLA - 3* GEORGIA, GEORGIA TECH, FLORIDA, NEBRASKA - 2* michigan state, arizona
EXECUTIVE (1-1) (2-0) (2-2)
EXPERT 1 (4-1) (1-1) UTEP
FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (0-1) (2-2) GEORGIA
FINAL SCORE 1 (3-5) (0-1) MARYLAND
GAME DAY 4 (4* 4-0) (9-10) 4 MIAMI FLORIDA -2 kansas state
GARDEN STATE 4 (5* 1-1) (2* 7-4) 5 MIAMI FLORIDA
GOLD SHEET 1 (0-2) (3-1-1) (10-9) SUPER POWER 7 KANSAS STATE --- 1.5* MARYLAND - 1* miami florida, baylor, missouri, boise state
GUARANTEED 3 (1-4) LSU
INSIDERS EDGE (40* 1-2) (4-4)
INSIDE STEAM 4 (2-2) (2* 4-4) CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH TENNESSEE- central florida, indiana
INSIDE INFO 4 (3* 4-4) (2-6) 2 michigan state, wisconsin, arizona state
JEFF CLINE 3 (2-2) (2-4) tulsa, florida
JIM FEIST 3 (1-2) (11-14) (4-4) BOWLING GREEN, INDIANA, WYOMING, TEXAS TECH, ILLINOIS, FLORIDA UNDER ----- duke, central michigan, oklahoma
KELSO STURGEON 1 (50* 3-2) (25* 2-1) (6-5) CHAIRMAN'S CLUB 10* UNLV
KEVIN ONEILL (7-9)
LARRY NESS 2 (5-0) (7-4) 24* WYOMING
LT PROFITS 3 (3* 2-0) (7-8) kent under, unlv under, tulane
LV INSIDERS 5 (0-2) (400% 4-2) (3-0) 500 OKLAHOMA - 400 FRESNO, CENTRAL FLORIDA
LV LOCKLINE 3 (50* 2-2) (25* 8-2) 25 kansas
LV SPORTS 3 (10* 11-8) rutgers, illinois, texas am
LENNY STEVENS 2 (0-2) (20* 4-3) (10* 11-5) 20* OKLAHOMA, GEORGIA - 10 illinois, arizona state, tulsa
MAGLIOSA 3 (6-8) BAYLOR, MARYLAND, WYOMING
MAXWELL 3 (1-0) (0-3) (10-3) WEST VIRGINIA, illinois, utep, west michigan, florida
MIKE NERI 4 (5* 1-0) (4* 2-5) (6-6) 4 WEST VIRGINIA
MILLIONAIRES 5 (1-1) (6-1) VANDERBILT, OREGON STATE
NORTHCOAST 2 (5* 1-0) (4* 2-2) (4* 7-4) (3* 6-5) 5* VANDERBILT - 4* CLEMSON, MIAMI FLORIDA, MISSOURI - 3* texas am, maryland, unlv, oregon state
NORTHCOAST SMALL COLL 2 (3* 3-3) northern illinois
NORTHCOAST TOTALS 2 (4* 2-1) (11-7) 3* san diego state over, georgia over, baylor under
NY SPORTS 4 (10* 1-0) (9* 4-0) (10-5) 9 WAKE FOREST
POINTWISE 1 (4* 4-6) (3* 22-11) (2* 3-6) 4* LSU, FLORIDA STATE - 3* clemson, missouri, wyoming, vanderbilt, ball state, uab, georgia, baylor - 2* cincinnati, penn state
POINTSPREAD MAVEN 3 (20* 1-0) (10* 6-3) (5* 1-0) 10 MIAMI OHIO
POWER PLAYS 4 (1-3) (7-4) (5-4) TEXAS AM, MISSOURI, MICHIGAN STATE, HAWAII
PLATINUM 4 (5-3) (4-3) OHIO STATE
PREFERRED PICKS 3 (5* 1-0) (4* 4-0) (3* 6-6) 4 PURDUE - 3 florida, houston
PRIMETIME (4-2)
PRIVATE INVESTORS 4 (5-1) (8-8) TENNESSEE, BAYLOR AND UNDER
PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 2 LATE PHONES (6* 0-1) (5* 4-3) (11-11) 5* GEORGIA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE OVER - 4* illinois, arizona state - 3* georgia, arizona, northwestern over, oklahoma under
PURE LOCK 1 (4-1) VANDERBILT
RAIDER 2 (2-4) (1-3) TEXAS A&M, UTEP, SAN JOSE STATE
RANDY RATDKE 3 (3-3) (4-7) VANDERBILT, NEBRASKA, TENNESSEE
REED HARRIS 5 (8-4) (7-11) TENNESSEE, NOTRE DAME, TEXAS TECH, WESTERN MICHIGAN
SCORE (500% 1-0) (400* 4-2) (5-7)
SCOTT SPREITZER 4 (6-3) (14-7) (3-4) BALL STATE, INDIANA, WAKE FOREST OVER
SILVER STAR 4 (10* 1-0) (9* 3-0) (5-4) 10* INSIDER GOY SAN DIEGO STATE - 8 georgia tech - 6 idaho
SLAM DUNK 1 (1-0) (5-2) (11-5) TENNESSEE, MICHIGAN STATE
ED SLICK (2* 2-7) (15-15)
SOLID GOLD PICK 6 (4-3) (12-5) WYOMING, clemson, utep, florida state, central florida
SPORTS GURU (40* 1-0) (30* 7-3)
SPORTS ANALYST (2-1) (0-4) (1-5)
SPORTS AUTHORITY 5 (2-3) (5-4) (3-0) TV GAME OF MONTH PENN STATE --- MISS STATE, PURDUE
SPORTS BANK (500* 3-2) (0-1)
SPORTS DOCTOR 5 (100* 1-1) (75* 6-0) (3-2) 100* CLEMSON - 75 MISSOURI
SPORTS INVESTORS (10* 2-2) (9* 0-1) (6-3)
SPORTS NETWORK (1-2) (4-5) (16-16)
SPORT TRENDS 1 (1-0) (9* 3-2) (25-20) INDIANA, DUKE, ILLINOIS, bowling green, miss state, kent state, kansas state, baylor, clemson, iowa, florida state, nevada, san jose, san diego state, arizona, marland, florida, ohio state, air force, utep, washington state, hawaii
SPORTS UNLIMITED (15* 1-0) (7* 0-2) (6-3)
STATISTICIAN 2 (2-3) (3-2) 90% TENNESSEE, WISCONSIN --80% maryland, iowa, texas
SUPER LOCK 1 (5-1) WEST VIRGINIA
SUPER SYSTEMS 1 (3-4) FLORIDA
SWAMI 6 (13-8) tennessee, kansas state, central florida, wyoming, ohio state
TD CLUB (10* 0-2) (9* 1-1) (5-3)
THE COACH 3 (3* 0-1) (2-4) (3-1) WEST VIRGINIA OVER
THE INSIDER 1 (6-1) (15-17) KANSAS, MARYLAND, IOWA --- oklahoma, illinois, north carolina, colorado state, east carolina, purdue, tulane
TIPPS 6 (0-1) (3-4) (8-12) UNDERDOG GAME OF MONTH TULANE
TOMMY THUNDER 3 (10* 1-0) (9* 2-1) (5-5) 9 ILLINOIS
TONY WRIGHT (10* 1-1) (3-6)
TOP DAWG 6 (0-2) (1-3) (5-4) wash state, baylor, utep, tulane, tennessee
TRU-LINE 6 (1-1) (3-2) (2-0) WASHINGTON STATE, SAN JOSE STATE
UNDERDOG (2-3)
UNIVERSAL 6 (0-1) (1-2) (12-6) BOSTON COLLEGE, miss state, kent state, tulane, florida state
USA SPORTS 6 (4-2) (17-17) florida, nevada, missouri, penn state, clemson, hawaii, central florida, ohio state
VEGAS CONNECTION 4 (3* 3-1) (2* 3-3) (1-0) 2 VANDERBILT
VEGAS PIPELINE 6 (10-6) (3-2) CENTRAL FLORIDA, TEXAS TECH, TULANE, FLORIDA,
VIP SPORTS 3 (1000* 3-1) (500% 4-3) (5-1) NORTH CAROLINA, virginia
WAYNE ROOT 2 (NO LIMIT 4-2) (2-1) (9-5) (3-5) NO LIMIT RUTGERS ----- PERFECT PLAY WYOMING ---- INSIDER WASHINGTON STATE ----- BILLIONAIRE ILLINOIS ---- MONEY MAKER OKLAHOMA STATE ---- MILLIONAIRE tennessee ---- CHAIRMAN kansas
WILDCAT (10* 2-2) (7* 2-1) (4-4)
WINDY CITY 4 (10* 3-1) (9* 1-0) (4-6) 10* GAME OF MONTH UNLV - 8 buffalo - 6 west virginia over
WINNERS PATH 3 (2-1) (0-2) (5-5) north carolina
WISE GUYS 5 (3* 1-2) (2* 5-7) (1-0) 3 WYOMING - 2 LOU TECH, AKRON
WIZARD 1 (0-1) (3-5) (2-5) FLORIDA, IOWA, TEXAS
ADDITIONAL ***
UNDERDOG SPORTSLINE 1 (0-3) (1-2) (4-3) BOWLING GREEN, duke, tulane
RIGHT ANGLE 1 (2* 1-0) (1* 4-6-1) 2* BOSTON COLLEGE OVER - 1* nevada under, miss state under - (.5*) kansas state, arkansas state, tulsa, ul lafayette
SEBASTIAN 5 (2-3) (50* 3-1) (29-12) 100* UNLV
MIKEY SPORTS 1 (1-1) (5-1) (9-8) HAWAII, illinois, indiana, vanderbilt, miss staste, southern cal, wash state, north texas
R&R TOTALS 1 (2-3) ball state under
JB SPORTS (2-0) (3-5)
ASA 1 (5* 4-0) (4* 1-0) (2-3) 4 WYOMING, RUTGERS - 3 clemson
MARC LAWRENCE 1 PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB FLORIDA
MARC LAWRENCE 1 SUPER PLAY VANDERBILT
ROB FERRINGO 1 ILLINOIS - WYOMING - tulsa, kansas state, east michigan, cincinnati, west michigan, lsu
DAVE ******** 1 5* PENN STATE, GEORGIA - 4 ohio, texas under, west michigan, lsu under
TED SERVANSKY 1 PURDUE
TOM SCOTT 1 5* BALL STATE
NORM HITZGES 1 OKLAHOMA, INDIANA, COLORADO, ARIZONA
GAME PLAN 1 DIAMOND PLAYS - RUTGERS, MISSISSIPPI
JIM KRUEGER 1 6* GEORGIA - kansas state, oklahoma, purdue, wyoming
LENNY DEL GENIO 1 REVENGE GOY GEORGIA
STRIKE POINT 1 WISCONSIN - purdue over, central michigan, kansas state, tcu, arkansas state, central florida, florida
DR CHAD 1 air force, minnesota, east carolina, auburn, san jose state, ul lafayette
ROCKETMAN SPORTS 1 VIRGINIA TECH -- EAST MICHIGAn, COLORADO, PURDUE --- buffalo, west virginia, mississippi state
SHARP TOTALS 1 WEST VIRGINIA OVER
CAPPERS ACCESS 2 north carolina, lsu, unlv, ohio state
RON MEYER 2 FLORIDA ---- COACH MISMATCH GOY UNLV
SPECIAL K 3 VANDERBILT --- 20* MISSOURI - 15* TENNESSEE, CLEMSON
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 1:27pm -
0 likes
ATS 2 (1-1) (4-8) (6* 3-1) (7-4) LOCK CLUB 8* W MICHIGAN - 6 kansas state, ul monroe - 5* mississippi, florida atlantic, colorado --- FINANCIAL 4* rutgers, miami florida, central florida
BEN BURNS 1 (10-4) (2-3) (2-4) SEC GAME OF YEAR TENNESSEE ---- WAC GAME OF MONTH FRESNO STATE ----- TV TOTAL OF THE MONTH MISSOURI OVER ----- NON CONFERENCE MAIN EVENT FLORIDA ATLANTIC ----- BIG 12 GAME OF WEEK BAYLOR ---- ESPN GAME OF WEEK RUTGERS ---- east carolina
BIG AL 2 (5* 2-1) (3* 3-3) (10 DIME 2-1) (8-6) SEC GOY FLORIDA --- CONFERENCE USA GOY CENTRAL FLORIDA ---- BIG 12 GAME OF MONTH BAYLOR ---- texas, iowa, washington state, wyoming ------CLUB GAMES TEN DIME UTEP ---- FLORIDA ATLANTIC, RUTGERS, VANDERBILT, KANSAS STATE, FLORIDA
BILL BAILEY 5 (100* 1-1) (50* 0-3) (25* 0-1) 100 TENNESSEE
BANKER 3 (500* 2-0) (400* 4-3) (4-2) 300 northern illinois
BLAZER 4 (4* 3-2) (3* 6-5) 4 PURDUE - 3 vandy, baylor, maryland
BOXER SPORTS (0-1) (2* 9-16) (1-1)
BRANDON LANG 2 (20-25* 4-2) (15-13) 30* CINCINNATI - vanderbilt, illinois, indiana, clemson, maryland
CASH 5 (1-2) (4-2) (13-9) NOTRE DAME, WASH STATE, AIR FORCE, SAN DIEGO STATE, ul lafayette, troy, wyoming, penn state
COACHES CORNER 1 (0-2) (15-11) WASHINGTON STATE, san diego state, baylor, penn state, uab
COWTOWN (3* 2-1) (10-7)
COMPUTER KIDS 1 (3-0) (3-6) (3-3) UL MONROE UNDER, SO FLORIDA UNDER, LSU OVER, GEORGIA OVER
DAVE COKIN 2 (14-14) (8-7) SOLID GOLD wisconsin, unlv, utep ---- TENNESSEE, UCLA, FLORIDA, INDIANA, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, TEMPLE, OREGON STATE, FLORIDA ATLANTIC
DOLPHIN 2 (5* 2-1) (8-5) 5* SOUTH FLORIDA -3 miami florida, arizona state
DIAMOND STAR (1-1) (2* 7-5)
DIRECTOR SPORTS (1-0) (19-11)
DOC ENTERPRISES 1 (6* 2-1) (5* 1-4) (18-12) 5* CLEMSON, SAN JOSE STATE- bowling green, missouri, wyoming, minnesota, houston -------7* GOY ILLINOIS
DOCTOR BOB 1 (4* 0-1) (3* 1-4) (2* 5-7) 4* UCLA - 3* GEORGIA, GEORGIA TECH, FLORIDA, NEBRASKA - 2* michigan state, arizona
EXECUTIVE (1-1) (2-0) (2-2)
EXPERT 1 (4-1) (1-1) UTEP
FAB FOUR PICKS 1 (0-1) (2-2) GEORGIA
FINAL SCORE 1 (3-5) (0-1) MARYLAND
GAME DAY 4 (4* 4-0) (9-10) 4 MIAMI FLORIDA -2 kansas state
GARDEN STATE 4 (5* 1-1) (2* 7-4) 5 MIAMI FLORIDA
GOLD SHEET 1 (0-2) (3-1-1) (10-9) SUPER POWER 7 KANSAS STATE --- 1.5* MARYLAND - 1* miami florida, baylor, missouri, boise state
GUARANTEED 3 (1-4) LSU
INSIDERS EDGE (40* 1-2) (4-4)
INSIDE STEAM 4 (2-2) (2* 4-4) CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH TENNESSEE- central florida, indiana
INSIDE INFO 4 (3* 4-4) (2-6) 2 michigan state, wisconsin, arizona state
JEFF CLINE 3 (2-2) (2-4) tulsa, florida
JIM FEIST 3 (1-2) (11-14) (4-4) BOWLING GREEN, INDIANA, WYOMING, TEXAS TECH, ILLINOIS, FLORIDA UNDER ----- duke, central michigan, oklahoma
KELSO STURGEON 1 (50* 3-2) (25* 2-1) (6-5) CHAIRMAN'S CLUB 10* UNLV
KEVIN ONEILL (7-9)
LARRY NESS 2 (5-0) (7-4) 24* WYOMING
LT PROFITS 3 (3* 2-0) (7-8) kent under, unlv under, tulane
LV INSIDERS 5 (0-2) (400% 4-2) (3-0) 500 OKLAHOMA - 400 FRESNO, CENTRAL FLORIDA
LV LOCKLINE 3 (50* 2-2) (25* 8-2) 25 kansas
LV SPORTS 3 (10* 11-8) rutgers, illinois, texas am
LENNY STEVENS 2 (0-2) (20* 4-3) (10* 11-5) 20* OKLAHOMA, GEORGIA - 10 illinois, arizona state, tulsa
MAGLIOSA 3 (6-8) BAYLOR, MARYLAND, WYOMING
MAXWELL 3 (1-0) (0-3) (10-3) WEST VIRGINIA, illinois, utep, west michigan, florida
MIKE NERI 4 (5* 1-0) (4* 2-5) (6-6) 4 WEST VIRGINIA
MILLIONAIRES 5 (1-1) (6-1) VANDERBILT, OREGON STATE
NORTHCOAST 2 (5* 1-0) (4* 2-2) (4* 7-4) (3* 6-5) 5* VANDERBILT - 4* CLEMSON, MIAMI FLORIDA, MISSOURI - 3* texas am, maryland, unlv, oregon state
NORTHCOAST SMALL COLL 2 (3* 3-3) northern illinois
NORTHCOAST TOTALS 2 (4* 2-1) (11-7) 3* san diego state over, georgia over, baylor under
NY SPORTS 4 (10* 1-0) (9* 4-0) (10-5) 9 WAKE FOREST
POINTWISE 1 (4* 4-6) (3* 22-11) (2* 3-6) 4* LSU, FLORIDA STATE - 3* clemson, missouri, wyoming, vanderbilt, ball state, uab, georgia, baylor - 2* cincinnati, penn state
POINTSPREAD MAVEN 3 (20* 1-0) (10* 6-3) (5* 1-0) 10 MIAMI OHIO
POWER PLAYS 4 (1-3) (7-4) (5-4) TEXAS AM, MISSOURI, MICHIGAN STATE, HAWAII
PLATINUM 4 (5-3) (4-3) OHIO STATE
PREFERRED PICKS 3 (5* 1-0) (4* 4-0) (3* 6-6) 4 PURDUE - 3 florida, houston
PRIMETIME (4-2)
PRIVATE INVESTORS 4 (5-1) (8-8) TENNESSEE, BAYLOR AND UNDER
PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITT 2 LATE PHONES (6* 0-1) (5* 4-3) (11-11) 5* GEORGIA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE OVER - 4* illinois, arizona state - 3* georgia, arizona, northwestern over, oklahoma under
PURE LOCK 1 (4-1) VANDERBILT
RAIDER 2 (2-4) (1-3) TEXAS A&M, UTEP, SAN JOSE STATE
RANDY RATDKE 3 (3-3) (4-7) VANDERBILT, NEBRASKA, TENNESSEE
REED HARRIS 5 (8-4) (7-11) TENNESSEE, NOTRE DAME, TEXAS TECH, WESTERN MICHIGAN
SCORE (500% 1-0) (400* 4-2) (5-7)
SCOTT SPREITZER 4 (6-3) (14-7) (3-4) BALL STATE, INDIANA, WAKE FOREST OVER
SILVER STAR 4 (10* 1-0) (9* 3-0) (5-4) 10* INSIDER GOY SAN DIEGO STATE - 8 georgia tech - 6 idaho
SLAM DUNK 1 (1-0) (5-2) (11-5) TENNESSEE, MICHIGAN STATE
ED SLICK (2* 2-7) (15-15)
SOLID GOLD PICK 6 (4-3) (12-5) WYOMING, clemson, utep, florida state, central florida
SPORTS GURU (40* 1-0) (30* 7-3)
SPORTS ANALYST (2-1) (0-4) (1-5)
SPORTS AUTHORITY 5 (2-3) (5-4) (3-0) TV GAME OF MONTH PENN STATE --- MISS STATE, PURDUE
SPORTS BANK (500* 3-2) (0-1)
SPORTS DOCTOR 5 (100* 1-1) (75* 6-0) (3-2) 100* CLEMSON - 75 MISSOURI
SPORTS INVESTORS (10* 2-2) (9* 0-1) (6-3)
SPORTS NETWORK (1-2) (4-5) (16-16)
SPORT TRENDS 1 (1-0) (9* 3-2) (25-20) INDIANA, DUKE, ILLINOIS, bowling green, miss state, kent state, kansas state, baylor, clemson, iowa, florida state, nevada, san jose, san diego state, arizona, marland, florida, ohio state, air force, utep, washington state, hawaii
SPORTS UNLIMITED (15* 1-0) (7* 0-2) (6-3)
STATISTICIAN 2 (2-3) (3-2) 90% TENNESSEE, WISCONSIN --80% maryland, iowa, texas
SUPER LOCK 1 (5-1) WEST VIRGINIA
SUPER SYSTEMS 1 (3-4) FLORIDA
SWAMI 6 (13-8) tennessee, kansas state, central florida, wyoming, ohio state
TD CLUB (10* 0-2) (9* 1-1) (5-3)
THE COACH 3 (3* 0-1) (2-4) (3-1) WEST VIRGINIA OVER
THE INSIDER 1 (6-1) (15-17) KANSAS, MARYLAND, IOWA --- oklahoma, illinois, north carolina, colorado state, east carolina, purdue, tulane
TIPPS 6 (0-1) (3-4) (8-12) UNDERDOG GAME OF MONTH TULANE
TOMMY THUNDER 3 (10* 1-0) (9* 2-1) (5-5) 9 ILLINOIS
TONY WRIGHT (10* 1-1) (3-6)
TOP DAWG 6 (0-2) (1-3) (5-4) wash state, baylor, utep, tulane, tennessee
TRU-LINE 6 (1-1) (3-2) (2-0) WASHINGTON STATE, SAN JOSE STATE
UNDERDOG (2-3)
UNIVERSAL 6 (0-1) (1-2) (12-6) BOSTON COLLEGE, miss state, kent state, tulane, florida state
USA SPORTS 6 (4-2) (17-17) florida, nevada, missouri, penn state, clemson, hawaii, central florida, ohio state
VEGAS CONNECTION 4 (3* 3-1) (2* 3-3) (1-0) 2 VANDERBILT
VEGAS PIPELINE 6 (10-6) (3-2) CENTRAL FLORIDA, TEXAS TECH, TULANE, FLORIDA,
VIP SPORTS 3 (1000* 3-1) (500% 4-3) (5-1) NORTH CAROLINA, virginia
WAYNE ROOT 2 (NO LIMIT 4-2) (2-1) (9-5) (3-5) NO LIMIT RUTGERS ----- PERFECT PLAY WYOMING ---- INSIDER WASHINGTON STATE ----- BILLIONAIRE ILLINOIS ---- MONEY MAKER OKLAHOMA STATE ---- MILLIONAIRE tennessee ---- CHAIRMAN kansas
WILDCAT (10* 2-2) (7* 2-1) (4-4)
WINDY CITY 4 (10* 3-1) (9* 1-0) (4-6) 10* GAME OF MONTH UNLV - 8 buffalo - 6 west virginia over
WINNERS PATH 3 (2-1) (0-2) (5-5) north carolina
WISE GUYS 5 (3* 1-2) (2* 5-7) (1-0) 3 WYOMING - 2 LOU TECH, AKRON
WIZARD 1 (0-1) (3-5) (2-5) FLORIDA, IOWA, TEXAS
ADDITIONAL ***
UNDERDOG SPORTSLINE 1 (0-3) (1-2) (4-3) BOWLING GREEN, duke, tulane
RIGHT ANGLE 1 (2* 1-0) (1* 4-6-1) 2* BOSTON COLLEGE OVER - 1* nevada under, miss state under - (.5*) kansas state, arkansas state, tulsa, ul lafayette
SEBASTIAN 5 (2-3) (50* 3-1) (29-12) 100* UNLV
MIKEY SPORTS 1 (1-1) (5-1) (9-8) HAWAII, illinois, indiana, vanderbilt, miss staste, southern cal, wash state, north texas
R&R TOTALS 1 (2-3) ball state under
JB SPORTS (2-0) (3-5)
ASA 1 (5* 4-0) (4* 1-0) (2-3) 4 WYOMING, RUTGERS - 3 clemson
MARC LAWRENCE 1 PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB FLORIDA
MARC LAWRENCE 1 SUPER PLAY VANDERBILT
ROB FERRINGO 1 ILLINOIS - WYOMING - tulsa, kansas state, east michigan, cincinnati, west michigan, lsu
DAVE ******** 1 5* PENN STATE, GEORGIA - 4 ohio, texas under, west michigan, lsu under
TED SERVANSKY 1 PURDUE
TOM SCOTT 1 5* BALL STATE
NORM HITZGES 1 OKLAHOMA, INDIANA, COLORADO, ARIZONA
GAME PLAN 1 DIAMOND PLAYS - RUTGERS, MISSISSIPPI
JIM KRUEGER 1 6* GEORGIA - kansas state, oklahoma, purdue, wyoming
LENNY DEL GENIO 1 REVENGE GOY GEORGIA
STRIKE POINT 1 WISCONSIN - purdue over, central michigan, kansas state, tcu, arkansas state, central florida, florida
DR CHAD 1 air force, minnesota, east carolina, auburn, san jose state, ul lafayette
ROCKETMAN SPORTS 1 VIRGINIA TECH -- EAST MICHIGAn, COLORADO, PURDUE --- buffalo, west virginia, mississippi state
SHARP TOTALS 1 WEST VIRGINIA OVER
CAPPERS ACCESS 2 north carolina, lsu, unlv, ohio state
RON MEYER 2 FLORIDA ---- COACH MISMATCH GOY UNLV
SPECIAL K 3 VANDERBILT --- 20* MISSOURI - 15* TENNESSEE, CLEMSON
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 1:28pm -
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Score
500 Mizz
400 Cincy Clem Georg
posted by phantom
Oct. 6 2007 1:28pm