Daily Picks for Wed. October 3'rd
GLTA..
Here's my baseball series plays. This is my write up and my thoughts on the series. I notated where I cut and pasted info from other sites. Good luck this post season. If the play in game was any indication, we're going to get some great post season baseball.
I'm betting two serie's and posting the opinions on others. With the start of the post season I will list it exactly as I'm playing. Some plays will be 1 unit and the Game of the Year for side and total of the playoffs will be 5 unit plays. Good luck and let's hope we all cash whatever we are playing.
AMERICAN LEAGUE:
Boston and California
(they will always be California Angels to me):
Gm 1: Lackey @ Beckett
Gm 2: Escobar @ Matsuzaka
Gm 3: Schilling @ Weaver
Series Price:
Boston -165
California +155
Stats/Trends:
NOTES
FROM CBSSPORTS:
The Angels finished the season with the best home record in the majors (54-27).
Angels all-time record at Fenway Park (including 1-4 in two playoff series) is 116-176.
Josh Beckett is the only 20-game winner in the majors. Eleven of those games were won on the road.
Boston's top pitching prospect Clay Buchholz, who threw a no-hitter in only his second career start, didn't make the postseason roster.
John Lackey has a career record of 1-4 with a 7.68 ERA in seven career starts at Fenway Park.
FROM VEGASINSIDER:
2007 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
08/19/07 LA Angels (+100) 3 @ Boston 1 OVER 10.5
08/18/07 LA Angels 5 @ Boston (-130) 10 OVER 9
08/17/07 LA Angels (+180) 7 @ Boston 5 OVER 9.5
08/17/07 LA Angels 4 @ Boston (-100) 8 OVER 9.5
08/08/07 Boston (+100) 9 @ LA Angels 6 OVER 9.5
08/07/07 Boston 4 @ LA Angels (-115) 10 OVER 9.5
08/06/07 Boston 2 @ LA Angels (-115) 4 UNDER 9
04/16/07 LA Angels 2 @ Boston (-175) 7 PUSH 9
04/14/07 LA Angels 0 @ Boston (-190) 8 UNDER 9.5
04/13/07 LA Angels 1 @ Boston (-110) 10 OVER 9
The numbers listed for totals is what the line was for those games.
Here's the stats:
6-3-1 ATS on the over in 10 meetings
Boston won season series 6-4 with both teams winning series at home.
Here's my take on the series:
I think this is an incredible series for value. Everyone is hammering on the Red Sox but I think we need to look at how the two teams finished. Here are my trend and stat numbers:
**The Red Sox went 15-11 SU to finish the year. (Sept 1st on)
** The Angels went 14-13 SU to finish the year. (Sept 1'st on)
**Big Papi is probable with a knee injury and he is the cog that makes the ofense go. They absolutely need his stick to win a championship.
All stats post to a Sox win in this series. I am going to start with a bang and roll on the Halos +155 to win the series and advance. My logic is based on the two teams and how they are as of today to start the post season. The Angels put it in cruise control and tried to rest some of the bully and regulars after they clinched. It shows in their record and a good reason to fade them at the end of the regular season. The Sox let the Yanks hang around and it almost cost them. During the dog days of September we saw the Sox pen is still a little shaky. I have no doubts that Papelbahn can pitch, but Okajami and Gagne are needed against a team that will run hard against Varitek. Many people are down on the Halo's pen this year but I think they have the best closer in baseball and a good enough pen to get to the short game. I know it's crazy but my nod to bullpen goes to the Angels.
The Starters are a statistical hypocrisy. Beckett is the majors only 20 game winner with 11 wins on the road. He's so so at home. As predicted, Matsuzaka won 15 games and had an average ERA. Schills is schills and will either get drilled or pitch well in the post season. The Angels counter with Jon Lackey..1-8 lifetime @ Fenway but 8-2 for the Angels when he starts on the road, Kelvim 18-7 Escobar, and Jered Weaver. This is good pitching on both sides of the ball. Edge: Even
Sticks: Contrast in styles. The speedy get on base, extend counts Angels vs. the pop of manny/Ortiz and the peskiness of Pedrojia and Youklis. I thought it interesting the Sox didn't include Clay Bucholz on their post season roster. Anyways, I give a slight edge to Halo's sticks because of the quality top to bottom. Vlad and Garrett are a formidable one/two punch and Chone is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. The role players at the plate will decide this series. Edge: Halos
Series prediction: Angels in 4 games. I think they are going to split in Boston and take 2 in California. It might go 5, and then the lean is on the Sox, but I will ride on California to upset the Sox and make it to the ALCS this year. Beckett is pitching in the post season at home and I think he will be touchable. Matsuzaka hasn't been as good second time through the rotation and if I was the skip, I would have put Schills in at 2 at home. But I believe the logic is to get the 3rd win on the road with a playoff vet and I can understand that. Just hope your not down 0-2 with quality guys like Lackey and Escobar toeing the hill against you. This should be a great series with very different games. We'll have a pitcher's duel, and we'll have a slug fest. I like the Halos pen to close it out in Anaheim as the Angels advance.
2 units on California +155
New York and Cleveland:
Line:
Cleveland +175
Yanks -195
No big write up. I think this series is very hard to predict and I'm staying away from it. Yanks can be beaten if you get to the middle innings and Cleveland has the sticks to take them. Sabathia is very underrated but I think the pitching staff is going to have trouble with the Yanks veteran play and leadership. Cleveland might be the better team, but the yanks playoff experience should get it done.
Opinion:
Yanks in 5
NATIONAL LEAGUE:
Colorado +125
Phils -135
I am going to be playing a lot on this series. I haven't seen the pitching matchups yet but I will be playing every game in this series on either side or total. I am staying away from the series, but my first Game of the week in the post season is on Game 2 of Philly/Colorado. Stay tuned. Anyways, I think the Rocks are hot and this year's cinderella. After Hamels, the pitching is very suspect in Philadelphia. They are happy to be in the post season but the Rocks are rollin and can slug with Philly in both parks.
Opinion:
Rockies in 4
Arizona/Colorado
Arizona: +115
Chicago: -125
I am playing this series:
Game 1: Zambrano @ Webb
Game 2: Lilly @ Davis
Game 3: L. Hernandez @ R. Hill
Game 4: Owings @ Zambrano
Game 5: ???
Man this is an interesting one. All year the Dbacks have gotten no respect and are winning with players that only fantasy guys gush about. Let's look at the categories.
Bullpen edge is without a doubt in the Dbacks favor. Valverde has quietly put up great numbers and the set up men are all very good. We all know the Cubs history with blowing games and although Dempster has done well, he is the ultimate choke artist. Factor in the Dbacks MLB best record in one run games and we know who has the best back end. EDGE: DBacks
Starters edge for me goes to the Cubs, but ever so slightly. Zambrano is one of the best in baseball when he's on. And I think he will be on for game 1 against the nasty groundball inducing Brandon Webb. Game 1 is a veritable crapshoot as both teams should keep it close with their ace on the hill. This is also my game 1 play best bet as I like Webb and the Dbacks to get game 1 in the late innings after the starters are yanked. Anyways, if you look at the matchups you have to give the nod to the Cubbies, but it's very close: EDGE: Cubs
Sticks: Again, we see different kinds of lineups. Lee, Soriano, and Ramirez can bang for the Cubs while the Dbacks counter with the best leadoff hitter in MLB this year Eric Byrnes and a cast of slap hitters. The Dbacks are excellent at manufacturing runs and stringing ininngs along. I give the edge to the Cubs but am confident the Dbacks offense will have a good showing. EDGE: Cubs
Series prediction: Dbacks in 5
I just think the Dbacks are getting no respect and are legitimately the best team to qualify in the National League. The Cubs were involved in a down to the final weekend playoff chase. The Dbacks were in a similar situation, but were able to tinker with their rotation as they set up for the playoffs. They had to wait until Sunday to know they were in, but they rolled the dice and threw Livan out instead of Webb. Now we have the best first round matchup in baseball with Webb and Zambrano. Anyways, just looking at how the two teams close games out, I have to nod on the Dbacks. They have a great record in one run games, they have great motivation and young players who I believe will succeed in October. The Cubs are happy to be here, but if they don't get Game 1, it could be a sweep.
2 units on Arizona +115 to advance
I won't have a write up on these two as I'm going to Destin/Pensacola on business the next two days. I'll post my 2 plays tomorrow after I play them with the local.
[
posted by pc7588
20 replies
-
0 likes
PC, thats great info bro. One of the better write ups ive ever scene on here. I agree with ya on most series, but i believe the Yanks take the series in UNDER 5 games.
This season Yanks have outscored the Tribe, head 2 head:
49-17... Let me repeat 49! to 17.
They went 6-0 vs this Tribe team this season, one series in Apr / one in Aug. Yanks are also 30-11 vs the AL Central this year. I watched all 6 games vs the Tribe this season, and (opinion only) the Tribe looked scared when they face the Yanks. Granted, if you look at the pitching matchups, Yanks only saw Carmona once (6-1 win), and never faced CC.
However, the Tribe never faced Wang or Clemens, and only Andy once, (win 5-3).
Apr 17 vs Cleveland W 10-3 C. Wright J. Westbrook
Apr 18 vs Cleveland W 9-2 K. Igawa J. Sowers
Apr 19 vs Cleveland W 8-6 S. Henn J. Borowski
Aug 10 at Cleveland W 6-1 P. Hughes F. Carmona
Aug 11 at Cleveland W 11-2 M. Mussina P. Byrd
Aug 12 at Cleveland W 5-3 A. Pettitte J. Westbrook
Im not taking the series line, but I will wager on the Yanks each indivual game. I think we get soft lines with CC and Carmona on the mound, and I will hammer the Yanks hard!
posted by southern5061
Oct. 2 2007 11:11pm -
0 likes
MLB
Philadelphia: C Hamels -140 LOSS
Boston: Beckett -165 WIN
GL
posted by takis28
Oct. 3 2007 1:08am -
0 likes
MLB PLAYOFFS (0-0) gonna go on a run .... i stick to the same methods in the playoffs and usually hit quite well
COLORADO/PHILLY UNDER 9 in game #1.....watch these pitchers keep this sucker lower than the general public thinks....This game isn't in Colorado, the ball won't carry to the moon, and Francis/Hamels are two of the young studs who I don't see having 'jitters' past the 1st inning.
GL!
posted by moneycanada
Oct. 3 2007 6:35am -
0 likes
Well, Canada, we're off on the first one..Good luck on your playoffs fellas, let's roll.
Play #1: Arizona -135 ML
2.7 units to win 2 units
Play #2: Colorado/Philly over 9 -105
2.1 units to win 2 units.
No time for write up, on my way to Destin.
Good luck boyz...
posted by pc7588
Oct. 3 2007 8:50am -
0 likes
At first look I was thinking the over, but after looking at a few things I am leaning towards the under.
Why is the total only 9? Not one game this year between the clubs has gone under 9....
Public is liking the over in this....
Col has the hype of going over, but realistically is 50/50 throughout the season.
I think batting fatigue and two young anxious pitches equals an Under here....
Hate to be on the OPP side of PC, but i got to go with my play.
posted by shomeSSS
Oct. 3 2007 10:33am -
0 likes
Series:
Boston 540 to win 300
Cleveland 200 to win 300
Philly 140 to win 100
Todayt:
Philly 320 to win 200
Boston 360 to win 200
posted by bruceohio85
Oct. 3 2007 12:05pm -
0 likes
Line goin up on Philly I see -153 now, sorta like em but not payin that.
Philly Over 9 -110
Dbacks -124
Still lookin at Sox game, if total moves up I'll hit it. Can't wait to see those damn slapsticks and rally monkeys tonight OMG.
GL playas
posted by hilly
Oct. 3 2007 12:27pm -
0 likes
Gonna wait for this line to top out and gonna take 1/2 unit on Rockies +150 ish.
Great value for the hottest team in bases, with a guy on the hill that is 8-0 during the day.
Not so good is Francis ERA against Phills this year and the fact that Cole is 8-2 at home.
Small play Rocks ml
posted by hilly
Oct. 3 2007 1:27pm -
0 likes
User/Phone Ticket Date Sport Description Risk/Win Placed
Internet Money Line
Ticket # 29254838-1
10/4/07 3:35 PM MLB /Baseball New York Yankees Series Price -195 975/500 10/3/07
0:18 AM
Internet Total
Ticket # 29267734-1
10/3/07 12:05 PM MLB /Baseball 962 Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Un 9 -105 (J Francis -L) Must Pitch (C Hamels -L) Must Pitch 210/200 10/3/07
11:31 AM
Internet Money Line
Ticket # 29267744-1
10/3/07 12:05 PM MLB /Baseball Colorado Rockies +145 (J Francis -L) Must Pitch (C Hamels -L) Must Pitch 200/290 10/3/07
11:31 AM
Internet Total
Ticket # 29267849-1
10/3/07 12:05 PM MLB /Baseball 962 1st 5 Innings Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Un 4½ +105 (J Francis -L) Must Pitch (C Hamels -L) Must Pitch 100/105 10/3/07
11:36 AM
Total 4 Bets 1485/1095
GL Fellas!
posted by thenooch
Oct. 3 2007 2:39pm -
0 likes
wassup guys, i like southern miss to blow out rice today even without their starting QB Jeremy Young.
Southern Miss -20
i'm staying away from baseball, good luck on your guys post season
posted by maximus
Oct. 3 2007 2:55pm -
0 likes
THE POST SEASON IS HERE!!!!
AL EAST CHAMPS (Beckett) --------- -165 2 UNITS (330-200)
GOOD LUCK BOYS!!!
posted by thebigmessy
Oct. 3 2007 3:07pm -
0 likes
Didnt get Rockies bet in..oh well goo Over
posted by hilly
Oct. 3 2007 3:11pm -
0 likes
I'm leanin to the NCAA dog tonight so far.
posted by hilly
Oct. 3 2007 4:16pm -
0 likes
no play for me tonight fellas. i don't like to bet playoffs in baseball allthough i think cubs win their series. i actually took cubs to win in either 4 or 5 games. it pays me plus 300 on either one so if they win in 4 or 5 i'm a winner. but that's it. i won't count that towards record win or lose.
i'm passing on football game once again allthough my top lean is on the owls with the points. no action for me though.
glta
posted by jtmoney16
Oct. 3 2007 5:30pm -
0 likes
Ok we nailed the under nicely, and now I have picks on the two night games...
MLB POSTSEASON (1-0)
CHICAGO CUBBIES ML
and
BOSTON/LAA UNDER 8.5
GL! lets sweep em..
posted by moneycanada
Oct. 3 2007 6:20pm -
0 likes
What a nice start to the day.
COL$$$$$$$$$$$
Internet Money Line
Ticket # 29275072-1
10/3/07 3:35 PM MLB /Baseball 965 LA Angels of Anaheim +145 (J Lackey -R) Must Pitch (J Beckett - R) Must Pitch 130/188 10/3/07
3:20 PM
Internet Total
Ticket # 29275121-1
10/3/07 3:35 PM MLB /Baseball 966 LA Angels of Anaheim at Boston Red Sox Un 9 -115 (J Lackey -R) Must Pitch (J Beckett - R) Must Pitch 230/200 10/3/07
3:21 PM
Then, if everything works out, I would like to end strong on AZ!
posted by thenooch
Oct. 3 2007 6:25pm -
0 likes
angles 10 units for 15 for me tonight..goodluck
posted by jkl711
Oct. 3 2007 6:38pm -
0 likes
11-9 ytd cfb
tease= Rice+27/O48 1.2 for 1
GL
posted by astroman
Oct. 3 2007 6:53pm -
0 likes
S. Miss/Rice UNDER 54.5 (2*)
posted by redrascal
Oct. 3 2007 7:47pm -
0 likes
Well, it looks like Angels wont hook me up today. Oh well...
Internet Spread
Ticket # 29277925-1
10/3/07 5:00 PM College /Football 303 Rice +21 -120 240/200 10/3/07
4:50 PM
Internet Total
Ticket # 29277945-1
10/3/07 5:00 PM College /Football 304 Rice at Southern Mississippi Un 54 -110 220/200 10/3/07
4:51 PM
Even if both the Angels and the U lose, I will be PLUS heading into these 2 plays and AZ-
GL
posted by thenooch
Oct. 3 2007 7:55pm