Picks for Monday October 1'st
Just wanted to start the thread..
Fellas.... THE POST SEASON HAS ARRIVED$$$
We have a wild card playoff between Jake Peavy and Josh Fogg at Coors Field. It all comes down to who wins the 1 game playoff.
Play off matchups:
Yanks at Cleveland (Wang and Sabathia)
Angels at Sox (Lackey and Beckett)
NL is still pending but the Cubs, Dbacks, and the Phils are in...
Cubs at Arizona (Zambrano and Webb)
and the wild card winner gets Philly.
Let's get it started. The post season is usually a cash cow and I"m ready to roll. I'll post series props for the divisionals and usually a daily best bet for the post season. Good luck everyone, let's all post and hit the post season hard$$$
posted by pc7588
18 replies
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0 likes
All games in this series since 1992
CINCINNATI is 6-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND since 1992
NEW ENGLAND is 5-2 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
All games played at CINCINNATI since 1992
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND since 1992
CINCINNATI is 2-2 straight up against NEW ENGLAND since 1992
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games played at CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring NEW ENGLAND in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NEW ENGLAND games 43.5% of the time since 1992. (84-109)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NEW ENGLAND games 53.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (17-15)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 50.3% of the time since 1992. (85-84)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 63.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (14-8)
No Edge.
As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the OVER in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEW ENGLAND games 51.7% of the time since 1992. (109-102)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEW ENGLAND games 53.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (17-15)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 47.5% of the time since 1992. (94-104)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 45.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (15-18)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
NEW ENGLAND
S Rashad Baker Late Sept - Hand - 09/02/07
S Rodney Harrison Elig Oct 7 - Suspension - 08/31/07
WR Troy Brown PUP - Knee - 08/27/07
DE Richard Seymour PUP - Knee - 08/18/07
LB Oscar Lua I-R - Knee - 08/31/07
CB Mike Richardson I-R - Arm - 08/28/07
RB Justise Hairston I-R - Hamstring - 08/01/07
CB Chad Scott I-R - Knee - 07/31/07
WR Chad Jackson I-R - Knee - 07/30/07
CINCINNATI
DE Frostee Rucker day-to-day - Hamstring - 09/23/07
RB Rudi Johnson Ques Mon - Hamstring - 09/24/07
C Eric Ghiaciuc day-to-day - Neck - 09/23/07
LB Caleb Miller day-to-day - Back - 09/23/07
T Willie Anderson day-to-day - Leg - 09/23/07
S Chinedum Ndukwe day-to-day - Hamstring - 09/23/07
LB Ahmad Brooks day-to-day - Groin - 09/23/07
WR Tab Perry day-to-day - Hamstring - 09/23/07
S Ethan Kilmer Out indefinitely - Knee - 08/29/07
LB Rashad Jeanty Out indefinitely - Shin - 08/29/07
LB Odell Thurman out for season - Suspension - 07/26/07
LB David Pollack PUP - Neck - 07/13/07
RB Chris Perry PUP - Ankle - 06/07/07
WR Chris Henry Elig Nov 11 - Suspension - 05/22/07
LB Eric Henderson I-R - Wrist - 08/20/07
RB Kenny Irons I-R - Knee - 08/18/07
posted by scrilla719
Oct. 1 2007 12:17am -
0 likes
Funny last year the New England Patriots Beat Cinci by their magic # this year 38 - 13
Lets look at these 2 teams not sure what has changed with Cinci from last year?
We all know Patriots are a better team this year than last year & they also have a certain chemistry much like the Cowboys right now they has been line movement on this game for a reason!
PATRIOTS should be favored by 10 pts.
PATRIOTS - 7.5 for the Road Win Now LET'S GO
posted by scrilla719
Oct. 1 2007 12:45am -
0 likes
How can you not like the Rockies as a home dog today.
The Padres have the pitching advantage with probably Cy Young winner, Peavy. Fogg is a good pitcher as well this year.
The bats definately favour the Rockies.
Home field in Colo, where hitting is emphasized.
And.... Colo is 13-1 last 14, including a three game sweep in San Diego. The Padres are only 4-6 last ten.
I'll take the hot Rockies at home at +125.
I've lost track of my posting record, but it's not good. Somewhere around .500 and -4 or 5 units for those who care.
posted by sherlock37
Oct. 1 2007 10:11am -
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Last 2 years on GP I have AT LEAST thrown out at a 10-0 run ATS including big dogs in the post season. I hope to replicate that at some point in October but I think I have a great handle on what's gonna go down.
Anywas..MLB POST SEASON PLAY #1:
Roll with me on under 9 in the Pads/Rocks tilt.
Here are some FACTS and OPINIONS as to why I will be playing the under:
**Last two starts this year with Peavy against Rocks...2-1 and 1-2.
**Peavy in a playoff situation...spells good value on the under.
**Weather report in Colorado will keep the ball in the park.
**Fogg will got yanked at the first whiff of trouble, as will any pitcher today. Both bullpens are solid enough to not get out of a jam and give up the big inning.
**Peavy has good numbers against Holliday, Hawpe, and Helton. I like my chances that he keeps it low.
MLB POST SEASON PLAY #1:
Roll with me on San Diego under 9
Good luck today.
Broke out of my football schnide this weekend with a 5-0 ATS in college and pro.
NCAA RECORD: 3-2 ATS
NFL RECORD: 4-2 ATS
Let's roll fellas$$$
posted by pc7588
Oct. 1 2007 10:42am -
0 likes
Love the under play PC.
Here are some more numbers to like it....
Peavy is
10-1 on the road this year with a 2.16 ERA
10-3 since all star break with a 2.57 ERA
0-0 in 2 starts vs Col with a 1.29 ERA
Fogg is
6-3 since the all star break with a 4.12 ERA
Hasn't allowed more then 4 runs in his last 6 starts
beat pads 4-2 @ home about 3 weeks ago
I would like to back Peavy too, but just can't bet against the hot rockies at home.
The UNDER 9 looks to be a very good play.
TOD
posted by team_of_destiny
Oct. 1 2007 1:36pm -
0 likes
The Rockies are 13-2 on their last 15 games. 13-0 when I have not played them and 0-2 when I have played them.
My lean is Rockies and the under, so I agree with what you guys think so far. I am just going to watch and have fun. And get ready foir my flight to AZ to watch the Cubs.
posted by gocubsgo22
Oct. 1 2007 2:32pm -
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sorry pc but i disagree with that under play. I like the over 9 runs a lot personally.
My play is over 9 runs padres/rockies
record 82-45-5.
glta
posted by jtmoney16
Oct. 1 2007 2:46pm -
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PC- I have to disagree with you based on these facts.
1. giles has diarhea
2. greene has the gaute
3. cameron is drunk and hungover
4. rockies playin good
5. padres are pissed off that they lost last night and will play hard
I guarantee LMAO
Great call on writeup on the Chiefs. Lookin forward to your run that I have been fortunate to ride the last couple of years. Im just messin and havin alittle fun so hope no one takes this personal.
Pimp
posted by bigpimpin409
Oct. 1 2007 4:28pm -
0 likes
Cincinatti +8 over New England
Sooner or later, someone is going to hang a big number on this Pats defense. The first three games, they have faced an inept Bills offense, a Jets offense that is mediocre at best and a Charger team that just lost to Kansas City of all teams.
Let's see them try and stop the prolific passing attack of Palmer to Chad and TJ. Kenny Watson will start in place of Rudi, and is servicable.
All the wise guys are hinting that there is no way the Pats lose this game, SU or ATS. I say otherwise.
If you look at the first game of the year against Baltimore, that defense played extremely well, forcing six turnovers.
They'll need to do the same tonight, win the field position battle and I think the Bengals can win. They upset the Pats at home by three.
posted by morpheus
Oct. 1 2007 4:30pm -
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Heya fellaz just got back from vegas, haa a decent week.
Anyway tonight I'm banking my winnings this week on tonite
Ride with me on Patriots / Bengals $$$$$ UNDER 54 $$$$$
Ytd 1-0-1 on posted play.
posted by petertrojan
Oct. 1 2007 5:06pm -
0 likes
here's what i like for tonight.
cic +7 1/2
under 54.
my final card
cic +7 1/2
cic under 54
padres/rockies over 9 runs
record 82-45-5
gl if you follow
posted by jtmoney16
Oct. 1 2007 5:08pm -
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U 54+ MNF for 10 U. I might actually double this if it keeps going up.
Also, I will ride the U 9 hoping that the Pads bats dont show up...
I cant believe I threw in so much on the Miami play yesterday because of storng numbers without realizing the injuries to their D. That was horrible on my part.
posted by thenooch
Oct. 1 2007 5:13pm -
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First and foremost- PC- Great call on the Chiefs! I look back on my write up as a drunken fool with no real facts- just opinions. So, take it for what it is!
BigPimpin'- I was lmao when I read your write up! Good stuff!
I'm riding the under in the Pads/Rockies game.
I also like Cincy +8 and under the 54. I think they are treating this like there personal Super Bowl of sorts. Marvin Lewis is catching a lot of heat for being a defensive coach and is getting called out in the press. Plus, all of the home dog covers/out right wins this weekend just points to a Cincy cover!
Good Luck!
posted by frosty
Oct. 1 2007 5:27pm -
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5-2 on saturday in the college ranks......here are my plays tonight
New England -7.5
OVER 54
2 units on each and GL Guys
posted by phball101
Oct. 1 2007 5:27pm -
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i'm with you on the over phball, seems like the pubs are on the under, pats have gone over 8 in their last 9 games
over 54
good luck everyone
posted by maximus
Oct. 1 2007 6:02pm -
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ok here's two sunday plays i'm allready locked into.
i'm taking saints -2 1/2 (i bought the half)
i'm taking ravens -2 1/2 (i bought the half)
I see this as a must win for saints and delhomme status is still uncertain. lord knows david carr is garabge.
trent dilfer leading s.f. is not good news for them. dilfer did absolutely nothing in the second half of the sea. game yesterday. balt. is coming off being embarassed by cleve. Their defense has more pride than that.
I have a feeling these will be public plays and I see possible line movement so i'll buy my half a point and see what happens.
gl fellas if you follow these
posted by jtmoney16
Oct. 1 2007 6:07pm -
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my sucky plays cincy +7.5
under 54
i suck so sorry if i am jinxing anyones plays tonite.....
but goodluck as always!..
posted by phantom
Oct. 1 2007 6:42pm -
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6-2 for the home dogs yesterday
nice weekend PC, thanks for the picks!
I just can't play on Cinci tonight so think I'll watch baseball instead.
GL everybody
....well, maybe just a little on NE -7 -120
posted by astroman
Oct. 1 2007 7:43pm