UFC 77...HOSTILE TERRITORY
So far, I can't bitch with the card. Sylvia/Vera should be a good one and Ace gets his shot at revenge at a dominant champion in the Spider. Can't wait for this UFC as I think the two headline fights are rock solid so far.
Take care and see ya in a few weeks. I'll post some lines here in the next few days.
posted by pc7588
15 replies
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Jason MacDonald vs Yushin Okami
Despite both fighters’ losses to Rich Franklin, the winner of this intriguing middleweight matchup has to be considered on the short list of challengers for the 185-pound crown. So there’s plenty on the line here, and if past history has shown anything, it’s that MacDonald is going to get after it from the time the bell rings. Okami, not so much, but that’s been his M.O. since coming to the UFC, and with the exception of the Franklin loss (which he almost pulled out in the final round via submission), it’s worked well for him. The Kanagawa product is a strong and punishing fighter who pressures you slowly and steadily, and by the third round, you’re looking for the exit. Of course, MacDonald would like the fight over by then, so this will likely be a battle of wills for as long as it lasts.
Key questions – Can MacDonald take Okami out of his comfort zone and force him into a fast-paced battle? Is Okami’s freakish strength again going to be the deciding factor? Okami has spoken of the importance of making this an exciting fight; will that force him off his usual gameplan and into a possible mistake? Will MacDonald’s usually fast pace have him reaching for an oxygen tank come round three? Both are proficient ground fighters; who holds the edge on the feet? How will Okami deal with a seven and a half inch reach disadvantage while standing?
Likely to go the distance? Yes
Method of Finish – Majority decision
Alvin Robinson vs Jorge Gurgel
Hometown hero Jorge Gurgel will fight in Cincinnati for the first time in his career on October 20th, and if he was emotional about fighting in the UFC before, this has got to be amped up ten fold. Alvin Robinson is in the role of the bad guy here as he looks to spoil Gurgel’s homecoming, and luckily, his aggressive style means that the fans are the real winners here as both guys will likely meet in the center of the Octagon and go for broke. And if that’s how the fight plays out, Robinson will have to be happy, because on the mat, Gurgel – a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt - would have to be considered the favorite due to his superior ground acumen. So on a card packed with Ohio fighters, this may be the one where the crowd decides where the fight will go, as the roar of a packed house will almost definitely entice Gurgel to go to war.
Key questions – Gurgel is admittedly an emotional fighter; will that catch up to him? Robinson has gotten over the UFC jitters and knows what it’s like to compete in the Octagon; will we see a new fighter on October 20th? Will the crowd have a negative effect on Robinson, or even Gurgel? Will Gurgel, who has opted for mainly standup battles throughout his UFC tenure, finally take things to the mat against Robinson and show off his ground game?
Likely to go the distance? No
Method of Finish – Submission (choke)
Demian Maia vs Ryan Jensen
Unbeaten grappling superstar Demian Maia makes his UFC debut after a career filled with accolade after accolade on the Jiu-Jitsu and grappling circuits. This is MMA though, and against Ryan Jensen he will be facing a cardio freak who will be pushing the pace from the opening bell. Jensen, in his own Octagon debut at UFC 74 in August, showed no signs of the first-time jitters as went after Thales Leites with a fury from the opening bell. Of course, Leites weathered the storm and submitted Jensen at the 3:47 mark of the opening round, which begs the question, could we be seeing a repeat against Maia?
Key questions – Jensen’s aggressiveness was his downfall against Leites; does Maia have the MMA game to make him pay in a similar fashion? Will Jensen tone down his all-out attack to adjust in his second UFC fight, or would a full-on blitz on the newcomer be the smartest course of action? If Maia can’t secure a takedown of Jensen, will he be able to stand and trade competently, or will he become a deer caught in the headlights?
Likely to go the distance? No
Method of Finish – Submission (choke)
Josh Burkman vs Forrest Petz
When Josh Burkman and Forrest Petz meet in a pivotal welterweight bout, it has the potential to be the fight of the night given the clash of styles and the willingness of both fighters to put their heads down and go to war if necessary. And while Petz, at 2-2 in the UFC, would seem to be the one with more to lose if he dips below the .500 mark, it’s Burkman, who was seen as a win or two away from title contention who is really behind the eight ball here following his UFC 71 loss to Karo Parisyan. So expect ‘The People’s Warrior’ to come out blazing at Petz on October 20th, and ‘The Meat Cleaver’ to eagerly engage with his foe as he looks to land with his concussive shots to the head and debilitating blows to the body.
Key questions – Burkman has jumped around in training in the past, but now he’s back in Utah full-time and settled; what kind of impact will that have on his fight game? Petz has one-punch knockout power in either hand and Burkman’s not afraid to trade; is that the wisest course of action for the Utah native? Does Petz get rewarded by the judges for practicing the lost art of body punching, or will he get shafted for those shots if the fight goes the distance? Petz is a diamond in the rough who has been erratic in the past; the same could be said for Burkman; who will be bringing their A-game on October 20th?
Likely to go the distance? Yes
Method of Finish – Unanimous decision
Matt Grice vs Jason Black
Matt Grice fought well in his UFC debut in Manchester, England back in April before getting submitted by Terry Etim, now he returns against another fighter looking for his first Octagon win, Jason Black, who was submitted by Thiago Tavares in his long-awaited UFC debut in June. Expect a war of attrition here, where the first mistake made could be the one that decides the fight.
Key questions – The loss to Etim was Grice’s first as a pro; how will he respond in his first fight back? Black has been one of the world’s top unknown fighters for years, but he has lost three of his last five fights; have his best days passed him by? Will Black’s tendency to let his opponent lead cost him against the aggressive Grice, or will his veteran savvy lull the Oklahoman into a costly mistake? Is Grice experienced enough to tackle someone like Black, or will his athleticism be the deciding factor? If the fight stays standing, who will hold the edge?
Likely to go the distance? Yes
Method of Finish – Unanimous decision
Here’s the UFC 77 card breakdown…
UFC Middleweight Championship – Anderson Silva vs Rich Franklin
The long-awaited rematch between champion Anderson Silva and the man he won the title from, Rich Franklin, has the potential to be just as explosive as their first bout, with most pundits leaning towards Silva as the victor here. But what these same people seem to forget is that before the first fight with Silva, Franklin was deemed the best 185-pounder in the world and it was questioned whether anyone was available to challenge him, something most have conveniently forgotten. Plus, Franklin entered the bout after a seven month layoff and without expecting that Silva’s Thai clinch was going to be as deadly as it was. These are all key points entering the rematch, and aspects of the first fight that Franklin undoubtedly has addressed during training camp. Then again, if anything, Silva has gotten even better since the first fight, which doesn’t bode well for a guy who got stopped in the opening round the first time. But that’s why they fight ‘em.
Key Questions – Will Silva underestimate Franklin in the rematch? Is getting the bout to the ground the key for Franklin, or will he again opt to stand and trade with Silva? Will the hometown crowd be a positive or negative for Franklin? Will his secluded training camp help him on fight night? Has Silva gotten in Franklin’s head, given the way the first fight ended?
Likely to go the distance? No
Method of Finish – Technical knockout before round three
Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera
Former two-time UFC Heavyweight Champion Tim Sylvia returns to the Octagon for the first time since losing his crown in March to Randy Couture, yet all the attention has been going towards another return – that of unbeaten rising star Brandon Vera, who will fight for the first time since 2006, a layoff due to managerial issues. This is an intriguing matchup on many levels mainly because we’re seeing a battle-tested former champion in Sylvia taking on a talented, but still green on the elite level, fighter in Vera. Is Vera “The Truth†(sorry, bad pun)? We’ll find out for sure on October 20th.
Key Questions – With Sylvia returning from back surgery, will he be better than ever? Has Vera’s layoff hurt him in terms of ring rust and timing? Is Vera too small to deal with the 6-8, 260 pound Sylvia? Is Vera the real deal, or has he simply won the right fights at the right time at a time when the division was weaker than it is now? Who’s hungrier – the former titlist looking for redemption, or the young gun looking for respect and a title shot? Can Vera stand with Sylvia, or is his best bet taking this to the ground?
Likely to go the distance? Yes
Method of Finish – Split decision
Eric Schafer vs Stephan Bonnar
Nice style matchup here, with submission wiz Eric Schafer most likely looking to take the fight to the mat against Stephan Bonnar, who can handle himself there, but who will probably prefer standing and trading with the Wisconsinite. Schafer hasn’t fought since December of last year, which may be a key factor for a fighter whose submissions require accuracy and timing. Bonnar returned from a layoff of his own in July and was impressive in submitting Mike Nickels in the first round. If Bonnar keeps it standing, he has a decided edge. If it goes to the mat, Schafer has the upper hand, but it’s not the type of gap that Bonnar holds on the feet.
Key Questions – How will Schafer’s layoff affect him? Can Bonnar avoid the takedowns and keep it standing? Will Bonnar try to test his jiu-jitsu against Schafer and make a tactical mistake? Can Schafer absorb enough leather to get the fight to the mat?
Likely to go the distance? Yes
Method of Finish – Unanimous decision
Alan Belcher vs Kalib Starnes
Two middleweight up and comers battle it out in what should be an energetic fight with plenty of ebb and flow. Alan Belcher is always looking to push the pace and he has shown the well-rounded ability in the UFC to go the distance or end a fight by knockout or submission, making him dangerous everywhere. Starnes is steady and willing to stand in the pocket, though he prefers to fight it out on the ground. The key element of this bout comes down to who can impose his will and make the other break first.
Key questions – Starnes has been plagued with injuries in the past; will this rear its head on October 20th? Was the win over Leben the fight that truly pushed Starnes over the top and on his way up the ranks? Which Belcher will show up, the one that beat Jorge Santiago and Sean Salmon, or the one that was steamrolled by Kendall Grove? Will Belcher’s aggressiveness be a blessing or a curse when the bell rings?
Likely to go the distance? Yes
Method of Finish – Unanimous decision
None of these are my words..straight from http://www.ufc.com [ufc.com]">www.ufc.com.
I'll have my fight opinions and plays coming up. As of right now I'm locked in on the Vera/Sylvia fight, the Bonnar/Schafer fight, and the Herman/Starnes fight. Still reading and studying the main event, but man it's hard not to back The Spider. Anyways, we'll see what goes down. Good luck whatever your on.
posted by pc7588
Oct. 10 2007 7:36pm -
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why the hell isnt mcdonald okami on the man card, heard it was a swing bout.
posted by terpkeg
Oct. 11 2007 5:32pm -
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I have no idea. If that fight isn't on TV then something is wrong. I think they will bump Starnes/Herman and show Okami/McDonald.
How was Pensacola by the way? You hit up McGuires?
posted by pc7588
Oct. 11 2007 6:22pm -
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http://sports.espn.go.com/extra/mma/news/story?id=3059019 [sports.espn.go.com]">http://sports.espn.go.com/extra/mma/new [sports.espn.go.com] ... id=3059019
posted by bhilton3
Oct. 11 2007 8:53pm -
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pc,
turns out i was in sandestin on a resort. They had bars, resteraunts beaches all on the property, and shuttles that took you to them. Since i didnt have a car, just stayed there.
It was a great time though, good whether, got so fucked up saturday night i had to watch the jets/giants game at the bar with a splitting fucking headache on sunday, didnt shake it till about mid-third Q.
on another note, sucks randy quit. the ufc is starting to have some major contract issues. No word about arlovski fighting, apparently because he is down to his last fight, and a buddy of mine told me last night that okami only has one fight left on his deal and has been in neg. w/ other orgs. Dont know how valid that is but maybe that has something to do with putting that fight on the undercard. that would be some grimy shit.
posted by terpkeg
Oct. 12 2007 11:41am -
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GLTA here are the lines to work with for UFC 77 this Saturday.
UFC 77: HOSTILE TERRITORY -- CINCINNATI, OHIO - $500 -8:30 PM10 /20 /07# Money Line
32593 RICH FRANKLIN +180
32594 ANDERSON SILVA -220
8:00 PM10 /20 /07# Money Line
32595 TIM SYLVIA +130
32596 BRANDON VERA -160
6:00 PM10 /20 /07# Money Line
32597 JASON MACDONALD +190
32598 YUSHIN OKAMI -240
7:00 PM10 /20 /07# Money Line
32599 ALLAN BELCHER EV
32600 KALIB STARNES -130
7:00 PM10 /20 /07# Money Line
32601 ERIC SCHAFER +280
32602 STEPHAN BONNAR -340
5:00 PM10 /20 /07# Money Line
32603 ALVIN ROBINSON +130
32604 JORGE GURGEL -160
5:00 PM10 /20 /07# Money Line
32605 RYAN JENSEN +170
32606 DEMIAN MAIA -210
5:00 PM10 /20 /07# Money Line
32607 FORREST PETZ +255
32608 JOSH BURKMAN -315
5:00 PM10 /20 /07# Money Line
32609 MATT GRICE +280
32610 JASON BLACK -350
posted by pc7588
Oct. 18 2007 7:39pm -
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Boy am I excited about this card. Very intriguing fights and can't wait for the card tonight. I have 4 I'm playing tonight:
BEST BET: Tim the Maineiac Sylvia +140 ML
2 units to win 2.8
I know Vera is world class but Tim is finally healthy and he is a handful for anyone who gets him. Vera does not have the elite wrestling skills that Couture has and I think Sylvia is gonna knock his ass out. Cocky fighter in Vera with an impressive record against nobodys. Let's see what he can do against a former world champ. Sylvia's losses were to world class opponents while Vera has built his ranking and record against nobody's.
I'm on the Maineiac as my best bet.
Play #2:
Roll with me on Matt Grice as a nice dog against Jason Black. Grice looked spectacular and dominated Terry Etim until he got caught in the 2nd in England. His wrestling is world class and I can't see Black overpowering him. Grice really surprised me that he was this big a dog and the value is amazing.
1 unit to win 3.5 units on Matt Grice
Play #3:
2 TEAM PARLEY: Bonnar -340/Okami -240
1 unit to win 1.5 units
Bonnar looked phenomenal against Mike Nickels in his first fight back since suspension. I can't see his fight going past 2 rounds..Okami fights a very tough Jason McDonald but in this matchup, it's hard to hit Okami, he's a counter fighter and a ground and pound. Very intelligent and won't slug with McDonald. Jason is a good fighter but doesn't have the all around game Okami has. If you like McDonald, play on him, it's very good value, but I think Okami gets a majority or unanimous decision. He's stronger and is just a little bit better than J Mac.
Play #4:
1 unit on Ryan Jenson +170. Another fighter who I was impressed with in his debut. He lost, but fought well and in a step down opponent bout he should win outright by strikes.
1 unit to win 1.7 units on Ryan Jenson.
Good luck boys...
Leans on the title fight:
Man I really want Ace Franklin to win. But I'm a smart cat and I just can't go against the Spider. Franklin has the tools to beat Anderson, but my big question is whether or not he's in Franklin's head. I like to think I know my fighters and I'm convinced that Rich is a very intelligent and cerebral fighter. But to get the ass kicken he got, which I still think was fixed, (read my post on that fight in that UFC..I said Franklin was beat before he even walked in, you could see it in his eyes.) has to weigh heavy. Franklin had major injuries from the first bout and he might panic if he gets caught in the Muy Thai clinch of the Spider. So, if that happens, panic leads to mistakes which leads to a submission or KO. On the other side, both Lutter and Quarry were able to take Silva down and both had his back. Franklin is a much better fighter than both of these and if he's smart, he'll take it to the ground.
Lean on Silva
Lean on Kalib Starnes
Not betting them but think they will win.
posted by pc7588
Oct. 20 2007 9:44am -
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really like the card PC. usually were on different fights, but tonight i am on big tim and grice as well. also pulled the trigger on da spida b/c i got him @-190 and added a. robinson for .5 unit as grugel has never done anything to impress me.
sylvia claims to be a new man after his surgery and as long as he stays out of the sub (which he hasa never had a problem with) he wins this fight. gonna bump this play up a unit now.
posted by terpkeg
Oct. 20 2007 10:33am -
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i hope this works just like in vegas$$$$$$$$$
posted by ricky
Oct. 20 2007 1:32pm -
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and others.
Rollin Fitch money into the Maineiac$$$$
When they are in PR...I promise I will go. I heard they are trying to set one up for either Curibato (sp?) Brazil or in Costa or Puerto...man that would be fun.
Anyways..good luck tonight....let's hope the big man takes it to the truth.
Very good card tonight..I'm really psyched to see calib Starnes fight again. He seems to be injury prone but that cat is a good fighter. He is definetely one of the better TUF alums..probably better than Herman as well.
GL all..Terp..we're finally rootin together$$$$
posted by pc7588
Oct. 20 2007 3:32pm -
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Okami fight is not on the televised card because his fights nevere have much action according to ufcmania.com. Most people who buy the PPV's want knockouts and crazy bloody shit. Dana White knows this and gives the people what they want. Why do you think he offers 40k bonuses for knockout, submission, and fight of the night at every event? I know Forrest, Tyson Griffin, and Thiago Taveras all pocketed 40 k each at UFC 76.
posted by ultimatecapper
Oct. 20 2007 8:02pm -
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one of the first few UFC's (UFC 8 actually) was in Puerto Rico... I didn't go though.
posted by ricky
Oct. 20 2007 9:26pm -
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sylvia looked great! lets c the decision
posted by ricky
Oct. 21 2007 12:01am -
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yessirrrrrrrrrrrrrr$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
posted by ricky
Oct. 21 2007 12:03am -
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Recap:
Sylvia: win +2.8 units BEST BET
Grice: win +3.5 units
Jensen: loss -1. unit
2 Teamer: win +1.4 units
UFC 77 Final result: +6.7 units
Just absolutely killen these UFC's...congrats Terp, Ricky, and everyone else$$$$
posted by pc7588
Oct. 21 2007 12:04am