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Gator's NFL "Tech" Report:
NFL (Sunday): Indianapolis is 7-21 ATS at home after gaining 99 or less yards rushing in two straight games since 1992. PLAY: Denver +9.5
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posted by phantom
Sept. 26 2007 10:47pm -
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Dr. Bob
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DALLAS (-12.5) 28 St. Louis 14
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Rams’ offensive line is horrible and that has caused problems with both the rushing attack (3.6 ypr) and the passing attack (5.2 yards per pass play) and I just don’t see them keeping up with a potent Dallas attack that has averaged 6.9 yards per play and just ripped up the Bears’ stout defense on Monday night. My ratings favor Dallas by 14 points in this game and using only games from this season would result in a projection of Dallas by 21 points. The Cowboys apply to a negative 45-108 ATS statistical profile indicator but I just can’t back the Rams.
MINNESOTA 17 Green Bay (-1.5) 13
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Packers have started the season at 3-0, but they’ve only out-gained their opponents 5.2 yards per play to 5.1 yppl in those 3 games. All 3 teams that the Packers have beaten are 1-2 on the season, but I do rate their schedule as considerably tougher than average given that Philadelphia and San Diego are presumably better than their records. I do rate Green Bay as a solidly better than average team because their young defense has gone from promising to very good this season, but the offense is actually just barely better than average thanks to the absence of a rushing attack (just 58 yards per game at 3.1 ypr). Brett Favre has played well in the Packers’ last two games, but he’s averaging a mediocre 6.2 yards per pass play for the season and I rate Favre at only 0.3 yppp better than average after compensating for opposing pass defenses. Favre and company will have trouble scoring in this game against a dominating Vikings defense that’s allowed just 4.5 yppl. Minnesota’s offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with Kelly Holcomb at quarterback (based on his lifetime yppp numbers) but I rate the Vikings as a bit better than average overall thanks to their strong defense and better than average special teams. My ratings favor Minnesota by 1 point in this game and I like the Vikings even more thanks to a negative 20-63-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that applies to Green Bay after last week’s upset home win. Minnesota, meanwhile, applies to a 107-44-3 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that the Vikings have the characteristics of a good home underdog. Unfortunately, Minnesota also applies to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 angle. That week 4 angle is not nearly as strong as the angles favoring the Vikings, but its enough to keep me off Minnesota as a Best Bet at the current price. I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of +3 or more (at -115 odds or better).
Chicago (-2.5) 23 DETROIT 20
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Lovie Smith has finally made the decision to bench ineffective quarterback Rex Grossman for veteran Brian Griese, whose career 6.1 yards per pass play average and 3.4% interception rate is better than Grossman’s career averages of 5.8 yppp and 4.2% interceptions (4.3 yppp and 6.7% int this season). The Bears’ offense should go from horrible to just a little below average and their defense should bounce back from their bad outing last Monday night against an explosive Dallas attack. Detroit’s offense will certainly present a good challenge, as the Lions are averaging a robust 6.1 yards per play this season against 3 solid defensive teams (Oakland, Minnesota, and Philly). However, throwing the ball over 50 times per game has led to 2 interceptions thrown per contest for quarterback Jon Kitna and the Lions’ defense isn’t good enough to keep opponents from taking advantage of turnovers. In fact, the Lions’ defense has been horrible in allowing 6.4 yppl and that’s more than just a product of last week’s 9.5 yppl allowed to the Eagles. Detroit also gave up 5.1 yppl to the bad offensive units of Oakland and Minnesota, who would combine to average about 4.7 yppl against an average defensive team. My ratings favor Chicago by 6 points with Griese at the controls (would have favored the Bears by 3 points with Grossman), but the Bears apply to a negative 24-49-5 ATS week 4 situation. I’ll call for a 3 point Chicago victory.
ATLANTA 20 Houston (-2.5) 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Super Bowl champion Colts last week. Atlanta has started the season with 3 straight losses by an average score of 10-21. While is seems obvious to take Houston, you should note that Atlanta has only been out-gained by 9 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play to 5.8 yppl, which is far from being horrible. Houston has gained and allowed 5.4 yppl but the Texans are a below average offensive team with star WR Andre Johnson out of action for a second straight week, as Matt Schaub simply has no other legitimate downfield targets. After averaging over 8 yards per pass play in each of the first two games with Johnson in the lineup the Texans averaged a mediocre 5.9 yppp last week against the Colts and Houston is now without top running back Ahman Green, who has averaged a solid 4.3 ypr. The rest of the running backs are all at 3.0 ypr or less, so the Texans offense isn’t looking very good in its current state. My ratings favor Houston by only 1 point in this game and Atlanta applies to a very good 83-38-3 ATS situation while Houston applies to a negative 123-184-18 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that the Texans have the characteristics of a bad road favorite. Unfortunately, the Falcons also apply to a negative 24-49-5 ATS game 4 situation but the technical analysis is still in favor of Atlanta overall. I like Atlanta plus the points and I’d consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Baltimore (-4.0) 23 CLEVELAND 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Baltimore 23 Cleveland 17 if no TE Winslow for Cleveland
The Browns are a pretty decent team with Derek Anderson at quarterback, which has made up for a bad defense. Anderson has averaged a healthy 7.2 yards per pass play on 100 pass plays this season and his lifetime average of 6.4 yppp (on 225 pass plays) is enough evidence to suggest that he could be the real deal – although his interception rate continues to be far too high (4 in 98 attempts this year). Cleveland’s defense is not good but the Ravens have been struggling offensively (just 5.0 yards per play) and quarterback Steve McNair is not 100% healthy (he’s had to be replaced in all 3 games this season by less effective backup Kyle Boller. My ratings favor Baltimore by 4 ½ points is McNair plays the entire game at his normal effectiveness, which isn’t likely. I’ll pass on this one, although I’d lean with Baltimore if Cleveland TE Kellen Winslow is downgraded from questionable to doubtful or out with his injured shoulder.
MIAMI (-4.0) 19 Oakland 18
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Oakland finally broke their long losing streak by blocking the game winning field goal against Cleveland last week and that win should have the Raiders emotionally up this week as they prepare for the Dolphins. In fact, the Raiders apply to a very good 40-11-1 ATS situation that is based on that victory while Miami applies to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 angle. While the situational analysis is strongly in favor the Oakland the line value is not. Miami may be 0-3, but the Dolphins have gained 5.7 yards per play and allowed 5.2 yppl against a tougher than average schedule (Washington, Dallas and the Jets). Oakland, meanwhile, has been out-gained 5.4 yppl to 6.2 yppl by an average schedule (Detroit, Denver, and Cleveland). The Raiders have also been bad on special teams and my ratings favor Miami by 7 points in this game. Daunte Culpepper takes over at quarterback for the Raiders, but he’s averaged only 5.5 yards per pass play in 2-plus seasons without being able to throw to Randy Moss, so he’s not necessarily an upgrade over Josh McCown. The situations are strong enough to get me leaning with the Raiders plus the points.
NY Jets (-3.5) 23 BUFFALO 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bills may have caught a break with the injury to starting quarterback J.P. Losman, as Losman had averaged a pathetic 3.5 yards per pass play in the first 2 games and one play (he was injured on his first pass attempt). Rookie backup Trent Edwards averaged only 4.2 yppp on his 21 pass play, but that’s not all that bad for being thrown into the game without first team reps in practice and facing a tough Patriots’ defense on the road. Buffalo has a pretty good rushing attack and the Jets’ pass defense is so bad (8.0 yppp allowed) that Edwards could have pretty decent success in his first start. The Bills defense isn’t good either, but the 6.8 yards per play that they allowed came against 3 good offensive teams in Denver, Pittsburgh, and New England that have averaged a combined 6.5 yppl on offense this season. My ratings favor New York by only 1 ½ points and I’ll lean with Buffalo plus the points.
CAROLINA (-3.0) 23 Tampa Bay 20
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
David Carr will get the start at quarterback for injured starter Jake Delhomme and that is a downgrade for the Panthers, as Carr has been a below average quarterback in all but one season during his 5 seasons as a starter in Houston. Carolina has a good rushing attack, so their offense is still about average even with Carr, but Tampa Bay has a solid defense (4.8 yards per play allowed). Tampa’s offense has been the story, however, as Jeff Garcia has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play without throwing an interception this season. Carolina has been a bit worse than average defensively through 3 games and my ratings make this game a pick. Sadly, I cannot take the points with the underrated Bucs because Tampa applies to a negative 47-92-4 ATS road letdown situation. I’ll pass on this one.
SAN FRANCISCO 21 Seattle (-2.0) 20
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The 49ers beat the Seahawks in both games last season and I’ll lean with them to do so again. I was actually a bit surprised that Seattle was favored in this game, as I still don’t consider them anything more than an average team. In fact, the Seahawks have averaged 5.8 yards per play this season and they’ve allowed 5.8 yppl to a schedule of average strength. San Francisco has been worse than average so far this season, producing just 4.2 yppl while allowing 5.3 yppl, but the Niners’ offense is surely better than what they’ve shown so far after being a slightly better than average attack in 2006. My ratings favor San Francisco by 1 point and I’d consider the 49ers a Strong Opinion if the line goes to +3 points (at -115 odds or better).
INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) 27 Denver 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Broncos barely beat bad teams Buffalo and Oakland and then were beaten 14-23 by a good Jacksonville team in Denver. What’s odd about Denver is that they’ve been out-scored 17.3 points to 19.0 points per game despite out-gaining their opponents 6.4 yards per play to 4.5 yppl. There has certainly been bad special teams play, but Denver should certainly be scoring more than they have been given how well they move the ball. The Colts look like a better overall team than last year’s Super Bowl champs, as their great offense (6.5 yppl) is being complimented by a good defensive unit that’s allowed just 4.7 yppl. My ratings favor Indy by 8 ½ points, so the line looks a bit too high.
SAN DIEGO (-11.5) 21 Kansas City 14
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
What is going on the with Chargers? Could it be the Norv Turner affect? Turner has a way of ruining teams when he takes over as a head coach, but I just don’t see how Turner is to blame for LaDainian Tomlinson averaging 2.3 ypr. Afterall, Turner helped put this offense together when he worked for the Chargers a few years ago and they’re running the same scheme that they ran so successfully last season. Quarterback Philip Rivers is having a sub-par year so far too, averaging just 5.8 yards per pass play (6.7 yppp last season). The San Diego defense is also not playing as well, as that unit has yielded 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I do expect the Chargers to start playing better, but so do the oddsmakers given the line on this game. Kansas City is struggling offensively as expected (4.3 yppl, but against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team) but the Chiefs’ defense has given up just 4.5 yppl this season and is clearly better than average even after compensating for strength of opposing offenses faced. That defense should keep this game relatively close and my ratings favor San Diego by only 9 points - and the math would favor the Chargers by only 11 points if I used last year’s offensive and defensive numbers for San Diego. San Diego does apply to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 situation and I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more.
Pittsburgh (-5.5) 23 ARIZONA 17
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Matt Leinart was horrible last week before getting relieved by veteran Kurt Warner, who brought the Cardinals back from a huge deficit to tie the game against the Ravens before losing on a late field goal. Leinart will be back as the starter this week and the Cardinals have a below average offense with the second year quarterback at the controls. Arizona’s defense has been pretty good (5.1 yppl allowed) but they’ll have a tough time stopping a Pittsburgh attack that has averaged 6.2 yppl this season and has rushed for 199 yards per game at 5.8 ypr. The Steelers’ first two games were against bad defensive teams Cleveland and Buffalo, but Pittsburgh racked up 6.5 yppl last week against a solid 49ers defense. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 4.3 yppl to 3 below average offensive teams (Cleveland with Frye at quarterback, Buffalo, and SF) but they’re an above average unit even after compensating for strength of opposing offenses faced. My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 6 points and there are situations going against each team.
Philadelphia (-2.5) 27 NY GIANTS 26
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Both of these teams got their first win last week and both teams will be fighting to avoid a 1-3 start. I rated the Eagles as the best team in the NFC heading into this season and I still think that is the case (only Dallas is even in the discussion). The Eagles busted out offensively last week and McNabb and company should enjoy more success tonight against a Giants defense that’s allowed 6.1 yards per play this season. New York has actually played at a decent level the last two weeks on defense after getting overwhelmed in Dallas in their opener, but I still rate New York’s stop unit as slightly worse than average. New York’s offense has looked very good, as the rushing attack has been effective (4.7 ypr) and Eli Manning is showing signs of being a better than average quarterback (6.1 yards per pass play against a tough trio of defensive teams). Philadelphia has a better than average defense and they should be able to contain Manning and company in this game. My ratings favor Philly by 5 ½ points in this game, but New York applies to a solid 84-42-4 ATS momentum situation and that angle will get me leaning with the Giants.
New England (-7.5) 28 CINCINNATI 19
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-01 - Stats Matchup
It seems pretty obvious that New England’s unbelievably good offense (6.8 yards per play and 38 points in all 3 games) will score at will against a soft Cincy defense that’s allowed 6.4 yppl and 32 points per game. However, Cincinnati’s numbers have been skewed by one really bad game against Cleveland (9.0 yppl) and the Bengals actually allowed just 5.1 yppl combined in games against Baltimore and Seattle, so their defense really isn’t as bad as their season to date numbers would suggest. Cincinnati’s offense is once again one of the league’s best units, but the Patriots are playing great defense this season and have allowed just 3.9 yppl (although to teams that have combine to average just 4.3 yppl combined this season), so they ought to slow down the Bengals attack and win this game rather handily. My ratings favor New England by 9 points and using this year’s stats only would in a projection of Pats by 14 points. New England has won and covered all 3 of their games so far but teams that are 3-0 SU and ATS are only 13-23-2 ATS on the road in game 4, including 6-18-1 ATS in non-divisional games. I doubt that the Patriots will suffer a letdown but they’re unlikely to keep playing as well as they have. My ratings are based on realistic levels of play for the Patriots and I’ll call for a 9 point win.
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2007 3:58pm -
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Re: 9/30 SUNDAY SERVICE PLAYS
« Reply #6 on: Today at 05:52:50 PM »
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ALEX SMART COMP
Green Bay Packers -2.0
Sun Sep 30 '07 1:00p
The Green Bay Packers are preparing to make it 4 wins in a row to start out their season. The D, continues to be one of the most impressive in the league, despite of being a little banged up this week. On the other side of the ball Packers under rated offensive line is giving their aging star QB Brett Favre a lot more time to make decisions in the pocket, something he was not able to do last season. Bottom line: The Packers are the only way to bet this game, as their hosts Minnesota despite of being a capable defensive team, have few offensive tools to move the ball down field ,even against a injury depleted GB secondary. Play on Green Bay at -2.5 or less
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:28pm -
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ROBERT FERRINGO
4.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.5 Philadelphia at New York Giants
(8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)
I think this is a natural overreaction to the Eagles’ eruption last week. We do have two weak secondaries here but we also have two pretty hard-nosed football teams. The Giants are 1-6 against a total of 47.0 or higher in the Tom Coughlin era while the Eagles are 0-6 against the total in the same area under Andy Reid. The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in New York, 4-1 in Philly’s last five divisional games, and 8-3-1 in New York’s last 12 home games (4-1-1 as a home dog). As we saw with both Cincinnati and Cleveland last week: it’s tough to go on the road after putting up amazing offensive numbers and find the same rhythm.
3-Unit Play. Take #206 Miami (-4) over Oakland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
Oakland is 21-46-1 ATS in its last 68 games and 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams. The favorite has covered six of eight in this series and I think that Daunte Culpepper’s turnover-prone ways will have a negative impact on this team. The Raiders do not travel well, especially to the East Coast, and they’re facing a prideful, veteran Miami club that’s desperate for something positive. Cam Cameron is used to game planning for Oakland with San Diego and I think he gets his first “W†as a head coach this weekend.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 39.0 Kansas City at San Diego (4 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)
Much like the Green Bay-Minnesota game, we have two very strong defenses and at least one pop-gun offense. Neither team has been able to run the ball effectively and neither has any wideouts that scare you. This is a divisional game, meaning both clubs are familiar with one another, and I think both of these conservative coaches will be looking to establish the run and play the field position game.
2.5 Unit Play. Take #217 New York Jets (-3.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
The Bills are certainly a live dog this weekend, but we’re going to go by the book here and take the healthier, better-coached team. Buffalo is simply out of warm bodies on defense and they are starting a rookie quarterback. The Jets are 9-0 ATS after a loss against the number, 5-1 ATS on the road, and 4-0-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Finally, teams coming off back-to-back games scoring less than nine points (Buffalo), playing a team that’s given up 40 or more combined points in its previous two games (NY), are 6-14 ATS over the past 10 years.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 Detroit (+3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
Finally, our long national nightmare is over: Rex Grossman has been benched in favor of Brian Griese. That’s great news for Bears fans and it should give the offense a boost. The trouble is, Chicago’s defense and offensive line is undergoing forced attrition and could be without two starters in the already depleted secondary this week. Detroit has won three of the last five meetings in this series at home and seven of the last at in Detroit have been decided by six points or less. Also, home dogs that surrendered 40+ points the previous week have covered the spread at a 64.8-percent clip over the past 21 years.
2-Unit Play. Take #208 Atlanta (+3) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
The Falcons have been playing a bit better than their record would indicate and I think they get their first “W†this weekend. Houston is in a prime letdown spot after their tightly contested game against Indianapolis last week. Teams instilled as road favorites the week after facing the Colts are just 16-24 ATS. Also, the Texans have never been posted as this high of a road favorite. We have a reverse line movement and I think the Falcons win this one outright over a team that will still be without its top two wide receivers.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 40.0 Baltimore at Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 30)
An average of just 31.4 points has been scored in the last seven meetings in Cleveland, with the last four staying ‘under’ the total. The ‘under’ is 5-3 in the last eight meetings overall. Also, Cleveland is 3-8 against a total between 38.5 and 40.5 and the Ravens are 2-4 vs. this range on the road. Cleveland could be without Kellen Winslow this week, and I don’t see Jamal Lewis fooling his old team with those old legs. The Browns have been sailing ‘over’ lately, but Baltimore is 8-18-2 against the total on the road (2-7-1 as road chalk) and 7-16-4 against the AFC. We’re above some key numbers and I expect a rather sloppy, controlled game out of these teams.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take ‘Over’ 30.0 New York Jets at Buffalo (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1) AND Take ‘Under’ 38.0 Green Bay at Minnesota (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)
The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the last five overall meetings and 6-0-1 in the last seven in Buffalo. The Jets have been an ‘over’ machine, sailing the total in 10 of their last 12 divisional games and in 13 of their past 18 conference games. I think the Bills are going to pull out all the stops this weekend, throwing the ball down the field to Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish, and I think after two straight poor offensive performances against two of the better defenses in the league the Bills will bust out with a 17-23 point outburst. Don’t be nervous if this one starts out slowly – once the floodgates open points will be coming fast and furious.
With Green Bay-Minnesota, I think we have two of the top five defenses in the league right now and on Minnesota’s side a very unstable quarterback situation. The Vikings have seen an average of just 29 points in their first three games and the ‘under’ is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings. I think points are going to be tough to come by and that Minnesota will control both lines of scrimmage. If we can avoid any special teams or defensive scores I don’t think the defenses will surrender more than six touchdowns.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 53.5 New England at Cincinnati (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 1)
This is a move against the public. Now, I have to warn you, if this game does go ‘over’ it will likely be by about 20 points. However, over the last three years there have been 15 games with a total in the 50’s and teams are just 2-13 against those posted total. Bill Belichick is smart enough to know that he needs to run the ball to beat the Bengals, while Cincinnati can move the chains just well enough keep the clock moving.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:28pm -
0 likes
Joey Gaffney
Dallas Cowboys 10* GOY 13
Green Bay Packers 7* PP 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7* PP 4
Oakland Raiders 7* PP 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 7* PP 7
Game Units Line
San Diego Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs ** UNDER ** 7* PP 40
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:29pm -
0 likes
Big Al Mcmordie comp
Game: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Sep 30 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
Reason: At 1:00, our complimentary selection is on the Buffalo Bills plus the points over the Jets, as Buffalo is a terrific 31-8 ATS since 1980 at home off a SU/ATS loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU win. With Buffy off a 38-7 loss at New England last week, and the Jets off a win over the Dolphins, we'll back impressive rookie RB Marshawn Lynch & Co. at home over New York. Take Buffalo. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:29pm -
0 likes
Ben Burns
Total of Week **EARLY** (61% this millenium)
It's no secret that Ben Burns has a GRAND-MASTER RATING with his over/under picks. In fact, Monday's winner on the Saints/Titans "under" the the number, brought The Man to an ABSOLUTELY EPIC 177-115 his L292 NFL Totals. That's BETTER THAN 60% over almost 300 plays! This week's #1 TOTAL kicks-off EARLY.
Miami/Oakland UNDER (40 or better)
#1 Non-Conference Game of the Week*21-11 L32
Despite settling for a split in Week 3 (3-3-1) Ben Burns remains an OUTSTANDING 21-11-1 his L33 NFL selections. Sure, that 64% STREAK is PRETTY SWEET. However, it's nothing when compared to Ben's MAGNIFICENT 513-398-27 MARK this millennium.
Arizona (+4 or better)
Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR (18-5!)
INCREDIBLE NFL STATS are one of the reasons why Ben Burns has been able to establish himself as one of the BEST HANDICAPPERS of the modern era. However, his "BIG GAME DOMINANCE" also played a MAJOR role! This Documented Champion enters the weekend with an REMARKABLE 18-5 RECORD with his L23 "GOY" releases.
San Francisco
3-Game EXECUTIVE Report *EARLY KICK-OFF
Ben Burns went 2-1 with last week's "Executive Report" including EASY WINNERS with the Eagles and the Giants. Ben also had to "settle" for a 2-1 card with the previous Sunday's Executive Report, including a pair of EASY over/under WINNERS. This week's card, which contains TWO TERRIFIC TOTALS and one SWEET SIDE kicks-off EARLY.
Philly/NYG UNDER
KC/SD UNDER (37 or better)
Atlanta
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:29pm -
0 likes
Will Cover
The 'Boys are coming off a 34-10 rout of the Bears on Sunday Night Football with their defense completely shutting down Rex Grossman and Company at Soldier Field. They now return home and should have no trouble with the popgun offense of the Rams who could muster only a field goalG against Tampa Bay last week.
St. Louis is 0-3 on the year and averaging just 10.6 points per game so far. We don't expect the Rams' offense to finally come to life against this stellar Dallas D, especially with stud RB Steven Jackson not expected to play in this one. The Cowboys will get their points on offense but we don't look for many from this banged-up Rams offense.
Key stats: The Rams 8-2 to the Under vs the NFC East and the Cowboys 4-1 to the Under in Game 4. Dallas scores, St.Louis doesn't thus keeping this contest under the total.
Free Pick: Rams-Cowboys Under 46 (-110
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:29pm -
0 likes
Joey Gaffney
NFL Picks
Team Units Line
Dallas Cowboys 10* GOY 13
Green Bay Packers 7* PP 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7* PP 4
Oakland Raiders 7* PP 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 7* PP 7
Game Units Line
San Diego Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs ** UNDER ** 7* PP 40
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:29pm -
0 likes
Wild Bill
Week 4, NFL
Oakland +4 (1 unit)
Over 38 1/2 Atlanta-Houston (1 unit)
Browns +4 1/2 (1 unit)
Detroit +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Green Bay -1 1/2 (3 units)
Over 45 1/2 Dallas-St Louis (2 units)
Buffalo +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Carolina -2 1/2 (1 unit)
Arizona +6 1/2 (1 unit)
Chiefs +11 1/2 (1 unit)
Eagles -2 1/2 (5 units)
Patriots -6 1/2 (2 units)
2007 NFL SEASON RECORD
Game of the Year.................10 units
Total of the Year....................10 units
5 unit...................................
4 unit...................................0-0-1, 0 units
3 unit...................................1-0, +3.0 units
2 unit...................................4-2-1, +3.6 units
1 unit...................................15-12-1, +1.8 units
6 1/2 pt teasers....................0-1, -1.1 units
Parlay.................................
Money Line.........................
WON 20 LOSS 15 PUSH 2, +7.3 units thru 9/25/2007
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:30pm -
0 likes
Jimmy Price Teaser of the decade
10 point teaser
Cowboys, Colts, Chargers
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:30pm -
0 likes
ALEX SMART COMP
Green Bay Packers -2.0
Sun Sep 30 '07 1:00p
The Green Bay Packers are preparing to make it 4 wins in a row to start out their season. The D, continues to be one of the most impressive in the league, despite of being a little banged up this week. On the other side of the ball Packers under rated offensive line is giving their aging star QB Brett Favre a lot more time to make decisions in the pocket, something he was not able to do last season. Bottom line: The Packers are the only way to bet this game, as their hosts Minnesota despite of being a capable defensive team, have few offensive tools to move the ball down field ,even against a injury depleted GB secondary. Play on Green Bay at -2.5 or less
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:30pm -
0 likes
Big Al McMordie
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - Sep 30, 2007 1:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 3.5/-111 Buffalo Bills Pick Title: BIG AL'S COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL WINNER.
At 1:00, our complimentary selection is on the Buffalo Bills plus the points over the Jets, as Buffalo is a terrific 31-8 ATS since 1980 at home off a SU/ATS loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU win. With Buffy off a 38-7 loss at New England last week, and the Jets off a win over the Dolphins, we'll back impressive rookie RB Marshawn Lynch & Co. at home over New York. Take Buffalo. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 3:07pm -
0 likes
Hilton Top 5
1. Az
2. Minn
3. NE
4. GB
5. Hou
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 3:08pm -
0 likes
Victor King
"TOTALS" TIPSHEET
3* Rams @ Cowboys Play over The Total
2* Texan's @ Falcons Play over The Total
2* Raiders @ Dolphins Play over The Tota
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 3:08pm -
0 likes
Valley Sports 7-0 last week for about 25 units
5* TB +3
4* AZ +6
3* CLEV+4'
3* DEN +9'
3* STL o45'
3* NYG u48
2* SEA -2
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 9:55pm -
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MARC LAWRENCE NFL PICKS
4* Arizona +6
3* Atlanta +3
3* Minnesota +1.5
3* Cincinnati +7.5
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 9:55pm -
0 likes
Purelock
5* Carolina
________
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 9:55pm -
0 likes
SUNDAY NFL
Update 09-30-07, 11:50am
****************************************
POINTWISE PHONES (4-0 LW):
3* PHILADELPHIA, NY JETS, NEW ENGLAND, DALLAS
2* ATLANTA, CLEVELAND
POWER TRAIN (NFL 2-1, 8-1 Overall):
6* ATLANTA
3* Chic/Det OVER
3* Pitt/Ariz OVER
BIG AL ( Championship Play 3-0 ):
Championship - CLEVELAND
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 30 2007 12:25pm -
0 likes
Lt Profits
3 Denver
2 Clev Nyg
The Real Animal
4.5 Atlanta + 3
4 San Fran + 2.5
4 NyJets - 3
3 Hous/Atl over 39
3 6 Pt. Teaser Dall and Minnesota
Reed Harris
Top Play Detroit
Reg Play Clev Atl Oak Minn Tb
asa
3* MN +1
3* Cowboys U47
4* ATL
Kelso
15 unit Chargers -11.5 v Chiefs
5 units Colts -10 v Denver
4 units Oakland +4 @ Miami
3 units Green Bay -1 @ Minn
Cokin Top/ Seattle
Guaranteed Top/ Miami
PPP
5* Pittsburgh
5* Miami Under
3* Carolina
3* Minnesota
3*Arizona Over
3*Tampa Under
________________
Wolkosky Milan
138-90-5 last fourty three days!!!
5-2 Yesterday!
Today:
10* CARDINALS +6
10* FALCONS +3
10* LIONS +3
10* EAGLES -2½
10* SEAHAWKS -2
10* TB/CAR UNDER 39½
10* NYJ/BUF OVER 37
Free: PACKERS -1
posted by phantom
Sept. 30 2007 12:29pm -
0 likes
Big Al Late Phones
3*minnesota
3*miami
3*san Diego
3*arizona
Op-detroit
MARC LAWRENCE NFL (PAID PLAYS)
4* Arizona +6
3* Atlanta +3
3* Minnesota +1.5
3* Cincinnati +
cotty spreitzer
tko.....................lad
5star hammer..................mia
5star total........................pitt over 41
tko oddsmaker blowout gom.........ariz
tko rd warrior gom.....................den
tko..............................det
ko............................giants,atl
insider.............................minn
special release....................oak under 41
feist--
personal best.................nyy over 11
platinum......................atl over 10.5
serial game......................nyg
island source....................ariz
persoal best....................sf
inner circle.....................tb,denv
inter conf goy................atl
teaser...............sd and dall
Kodiak
5units:
Detroit +3
Minnesota +2
Atlanta +3
TB +3
KC over 38
TB under 40
Browns under 40
3unit:
Phili -3
Denver +10
posted by phantom
Sept. 30 2007 12:30pm -
0 likes
COMPUTER PLAYS
1:00 pm Cleveland Browns +4½
1:00 pm Detroit Lions +3
1:00 pm Green Bay Packers -2
1:00 pm Atlanta Falcons +3
1:00 pm Buffalo Bills +3½
1:00 pm Oakland Raiders +4
1:00 pm Dallas Cowboys -13
4:05 pm Seattle Seahawks -2
4:05 pm Carolina Panthers -3
4:15 pm San Diego Chargers -12
4:15 pm Pittsburgh Steelers -6
8:15 pm Philadelphia Eagles -3
BEST BET
* * * 4:15 pm Indianapolis Colts -9½ * * *
All Star Sports
5* Green Bay
3x Dallas
Regular
Arizona, Pitt
LT Lock
Minnesota Vikings
Jim Feist
Inter-Con GOY
Falcons
NORM HITZGES
Regular season: NFL: 17-13
NFL
Double Play--SD - vs KC
Double Play--Arizona + vs Pittsburgh
Detroit + vs Chicago
Miami - vs Oakland
Cleveland + vs Baltimore
Minnesota + vs Green Bay
Dallas - vs St. Louis
San Diego/KC Under
Arizona/Pittsburgh Over
New England - vs Cincinnati
New England/Cincinnati Over
__________________
Mike Lineback
5* Green Bay -2
4* Jets -3 (buy 1/2 point)
4.5* Seattle -2
4.5* N. E./ Cinci over Monday night
__________________
Ats Lock Club
Detroit +3.......................8 Units
Over 41 1/2 Pitt/Arz........7 Units
Chargers -11 1/2..............6 Units
This guy's been solid in football all year :
Trey Johnson
Mismatch of the year
#223 Pittsburgh (-) over Arizona at 4:15 PM EST
The Steelers will be going for their first 4-0 start in 28 years when they visit Arizona on Sunday. The Steelers have been impressive under first year head coach Mike Tomlin outscoring their first three opponents by a combined 97-26. They are third in the NFL in scoring with 32.3 points per game and first in rushing yards with 595 and points allowed at 8.6 per game. They are also second in the league in sacks with 12. Against NFC teams the Steelers have dominated winning 13 of their last 14 including a Super Bowl victory over Seattle. Pittsburgh is simply too much for Arizona to handle. Play the Steelers as they roll through Arizona with ease.
Play Pittsburgh (-)
posted by phantom
Sept. 30 2007 12:34pm -
0 likes
Great Lakes Sports
Game of the Month: 5* green bay (-2) 1:00
4* denver (over 46) 4:15
4* dallas (-13) 1:00
3* arizona (+5.5) 4:15
3* tampa bay (under 39) 4:05
northcoast marquee slection
ny giants + 3
__________________
Reddog gom
5* NFL Seatle Seahawks (GOM)
__________________
Big Al
Championship - Browns
Blue Chip - Texans
Linemover - Dolphins
10 Dimes - Bills
Offshore Steam - Chargers
Computer Boys - Lions
__________________
Wayne Root
Chairman - Browns
Millionaire - Falcons
Money Maker - Giants
No Limit - Vikings
Insider - Panthers
Perfect - Lions
posted by phantom
Sept. 30 2007 12:36pm -
0 likes
Michael Cannon
30 Dime
VIKINGS
Take the points with the Vikings today at home over the Packers. Has Green Bay’s 3-0 start been impressive? Yes. Does it look like they are going to roll to 4-0 here today as Brett Favre breaks Dan Marino’s record for touchdown passes? To the untrained eye, yes. This game has the classic aroma of trap written all over it. A 3-0 Green Bay team favored by less than a field goal over a 1-2 Minnesota team has to be the play of the year, right? Wrong. The Vikings enter this game with a vastly underrated defense. They have allowed an NFC-low 36 points and have registered 11 sacks and five interceptions. Their run defense is the conference’s best, allowing just 67.3 ypg. Green Bay checks into this game averaging a league-low 57 ypg rushing, so the Vikings have already turned the Packers into a one-dimensional team for this game. They can game plan for the pass and believe me when I tell you Favre is due to throw some big picks here this afternoon. Everyone has been all hunky-dory over Favre’s impressive start to the season, and I’ll give him that, but this is also the same quarterback who had at least as many interceptions as TD passes in both 2005 and 2006. Minnesota’s offense has been guilty of turning the ball over themselves, but with quarterback Tarvaris Jackson expected to miss this game due to injury, they will actually be in better hands with Kelly Holcomb calling the signals. The Vikings have a star in rookie running back Adrian Peterson, so look for coach Brad Childress to get him the ball every way imaginable today. Peterson by himself is capable of keeping the Vikings close here today. The Packers are just 10-21-2 ATS in games off three wins in a row, including 3-14 SU and 3-12-1 ATS when off a victory of 10 or less points in the previous game. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS at home off back-to-back losses against a foe off an upset underdog win. Take the points with Minnesota as they grab the win here today at home.
10 Dime
FALCONS
Take the points with the Falcons at home today over the Texans. Houston has looked good to start the season, but I don’t think they’re quite ready to be installed as a road chalk, especially without their star wide receiver. Andre Johnson missed last week’s 30-24 home loss to the Colts and he’s out again today, which will limit QB Matt Schaub’s options today. The Texans may also be without running back Ahman Green who missed practice this week because of a knee injury, and backup Ron Dayne is day-to-day with bruised ribs. Atlanta got better play from quarterback Joey Harrington in last week’s home loss to the Panthers. Harrington threw for 361 yards with two TDs and no interceptions and was sacked only once after going down 13 times in the first two games. If Harrington approaches those numbers today the Falcons will win this game. Atlanta is 18-6-2 ATS as underdogs off three losses in a row, including an 8-1 ATS mark against a foe off a SU loss. Take the points with the Falcons as the Texans choke in their first role as an away chalk.
5 Dime
BROWNS
Let’s make it a hat trick with home dogs today and back the Browns over the Ravens. Cleveland should have grabbed their second-straight win last week, but a last second 40-yard field goal attempt was blocked, and they fell to the Raiders, 26-24. Despite the loss, the Browns have really showed me something as it looks like they’re actually improving this year under coach Romeo Crennell. Baltimore, on the other hand, doesn’t look like the dominating defense of last year. The Ravens have blown big leads in their last two games and have had to battle just to grab the wins in both. Last week they allowed the Cardinals 17 straight fourth-quarter points before kicking a last second field goal to salvage the win. The week before they gave up 10 points in the last 10 minutes of a 20-13 win over the Jets, and almost lost the lead as three Jets receivers dropped potential touchdown passes on New York’s final drive. The Dawg Pound will be fired up for this matchup and I have all the confidence in the world the Browns can hang tight with a suddenly aging Baltimore Ravens team. Baltimore is 0-4 ATS as a road chalk since 2005, and 6-14 SUATS in its last 20 road games under coach Brian Billick. The Browns are on a 6-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings of this series. Take the points with the Browns as they keep it close with the Ravens today at home.
AFTERNOON GAMES
15 Dime
EAGLES
Lay the points with the Eagles on the road tonight over the Giants. Philadelphia should have no problem whatsoever keeping their offense rolling tonight against a pitiful Giants defense. The Eagles destroyed the Lions 56-21 last week behind Donovan McNabb’s 381 yards passing and four TDs. They rolled up 42 first-half points last week and I’d be shocked if they didn’t continue that outburst tonight against the Giants. Much will be made about the Giants defensive effort against the Redskins last week, and they did stop Washington with a goal-line stand after a first-and-goal at the 1 with 58 seconds left. But I expect them to revert back to their form from the first two games, when they were lit up for 80 points and more than 600 yards. The Eagles may be hurting in the defensive secondary, but the Giants are hurting at receiver with Plaxico Burress nursing an injured ankle. I can’t trust that Eli Manning will make the plays here tonight to keep pace with the Eagles. The Giants are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. Lay the small number with the Eagles on the road as they cruise to the win and cover.
5 Dime
49ERS
Take the points with San Francisco at home over Seattle. I don’t see Seattle getting the job done here on the road today. Not after watching them struggle offensively against a porous Cincinnati defense at home last week. Shaun Alexander is beat up again and Matt Hasselbeck hasn’t exactly been lighting it up in the early going so far. The 49ers swept the season series against the Seahawks last year, with running back Frank Gore paving the way. The All-Pro ran for 356 yards in San Fran’s two wins last year against Seattle. The Seahawks are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games and lack the KO power they had from a couple of years ago. They have lost four straight divisional games and they’re 0-6 ATS in the last six. San Francisco is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog and 7-1-1 ATS against NFC West opponents. Take the points with the 49ers as they get it done today at home over Seahawks.
__________________
Nick Parsons
NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR
Chicago Bears -3
The Rex Grossman era is over. Good news for Bears fans! In steps Brian Griese. Grossman has been horrible for a long time now, that's not news to anyone. The Bears defense was unable to bail Grossman out last week and the Bears got buried at home to the visiting Dallas Cowboys, 34-10. The Bears do not need a 'super-star' QB to win games though, they simply need a pivot who can move the ball down the field a few times and limit turnovers. Almost any other QB in the league could step in and do a better job than Grossman. Griese has played all over the league, and is at least halfway competent and will be able to utilize the Bears offensive weapons in an efficient manner. The Lions started the year off with a convincing road win over Oakland and followed that up with an ugly OT win over the Vikes at home; last weekend however they got buried in Philadelphia, 56-21, to show that against a good defense, these are still the Lions of old, no matter how much better their offense has become. Although they have some injuries to their defense, I look for the Bears to do just enough to keep the Lions offense in check and look for Griese to carve up one of the worst-ranked defenses in the league; my NFC North Game of the Year is on the BEARS!
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 30 2007 12:37pm