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SATURDAY
SCOTT SPREITZER SCOTT'S CFB EARLY VALUE SHOCKER! 2-0, 100% IN 2007!
(139) Penn St vs (140) Illinois
Game Starts at September 29 2007 09:00 EST
Take (140) Illinois
I'm taking the points with the home underdog Illini. As I stated in my Iowa-Wisconsin analysis on Proline, the Big-10 is way down, unathletic for the most part, and stagnant in their play-calling. The only programs that have taken it into the 21st century are Ohio State, Purdue, and believe it or not, Ron Zook's Illinois! The Illini can trade points with anyone. Just ask Missouri and Syracuse. But they can also play defense, especially against slow, plodding offenses like Penn State's. Just ask Indiana. The Nittany Lion offense has no speed, was very fortunate to face FIU, Notre Dame, and Buffalo, and got exposed by Michigan, who gave up a ton of yardage to the imagintive offenses of Appalachian State & Oregon. The Illini also have legitimate revenge on their mind. In last season's 26-12 loss at Happy Valley, Illinois actually out-gained PSU, 358-184, including 209-96 at the half! The Illini blew a 9-3, third quarter lead thanks to a pair of INTs deep in Penn State territory, a safety, a turnover at their own 34 that led to a TD, and a fumble returned for a TD by PSU. But you could see what Zook was building. Now, the Illini have arrived. While they aren't ready to knock off the Buckeyes, they are ready to compete with and beat the rest of the conference. Penn State finds out just how improved the Illini are on Saturday. My early value release is a play on ILLINOIS plus points. Thanks! GL! Scott.
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2007 3:45pm -
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Big Al
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BIG AL's PAC-10 GAME OF THE YEAR; 100% ON #1 PLAYS -- Saturday
At 3:30 pm, our Pac-10 Game of the Year is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over California, as Oregon falls into 20-0, 93-53, 22-3, and 75-27 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 93-53 ATS angle. Here, we want to play on any home favorite of less than 28 points that's off a road game in which it scored 50 or more points. Last week, Oregon went into Palo Alto, and steamrolled Stanford 55-31, so the Ducks fall squarely into our 93-53 ATS System. Oregon already went into Ann Arbor and drilled a VERY GOOD Michigan team 39-7 (compiling 634 yards), and now plays with revenge against another very good team in Jeff Tedford's Bears. But Cal has struggled on the road of late. Last year, the Bears went 2-3 SU and ATS, and they're just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 road games, including a narrow 34-28 win over Colorado State three weeks ago. In that game, CSU rolled up 451 yards of offense, so that bodes well for the Ducks here. Oregon received some bad news on Monday when it was revealed that its wide receiver Brian Paysinger would miss the rest of the season following surgery to repair his injured leg, but Cameron Colvin was an adequate replacement last Saturday, as he caught eight passes. Take Oregon.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2007 3:45pm -
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Burns Saturday
Burns ABC TV GOY - Georgia Tech
Burns Non-Conference Main Event - Florida State
Burns ESPN Game of the Month - Tulane
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posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2007 3:45pm -
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Dave M@linsky comp 4* play
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Offered at: 12 REASON FOR PICK: 4* FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL over MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Situations like this are where the oddsmakers can be at their most vulnerable, trying to cultivate meaningful data as teams from weak conferences stepping out of class in September. As such we are not completely shocked that Florida International, which owns a 17-game losing streak, gets no respect here off of those 59-0 and 55-3 losses at Penn State and Kansas. But the reality is that we are taking double figures with a team that may be every bit as good as their opponent. We do not get to do that very often.
First, let’s establish the historical precedent that is an accurate barometer as to the talent gap between the programs. Since both became members of the Sun Belt Conference these two have met on each home field the last two seasons, and they split a pair of games that went right to final play. The bottom line from those eight quarters of football shows the Golden Panthers leading 41-38 on the scoreboard, 38-36 in first downs and 685-598 in total offense. The team on the short end of those statistical categories does not find a trip to -12 on the betting boards an easy one, unless there are special circumstances. There certainly are here, but many of them are actually against the favorite.
It has been a dismal 0-4 opening for the Blue Raiders this season, including a one-sided loss to Florida Atlantic in their conference opener (even with a blocked punt for a TD they lost 27-14, and were out-rushed 216-18). They also lost to Western Kentucky, which will become a full member of the Sun Belt in 2009, 20-17 at home last week in one of our ugliest statistical categories – a home team that is favored to beat an opponent, goes +3 in turnovers, and still loses. If you go +3 vs. the Hilltoppers and lose, it means that you have problems. Rick Stockstill’s team certainly does.
Middle Tennessee is starting four true freshmen already, including under-sized QB Dwight Dasher, who stands only 5-10. The defense lacks size, speed and depth, and can be particularly vulnerable in the secondary, where frosh Rod Isaac and Jeremy Kellem are in starting roles. But as bad as the pass defense has been, opponents have not had to put it up all that much. Louisville and L.S.U. both averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt against them, but Western Kentucky only needed to throw it 15 times last week, courtesy of a ground game that rolled for 234 yards at 4.8 per carry. The following from coach Rick Stockstill sums up the current state of affairs better than even the 0-4 record and dismal statistics can - "It's been difficult. We started out with limited depth to begin with and then we had so many people get hurt in the preseason so there has not been a lot of healing time for guys to get healthy."</I>
In the first Sun Belt game under Mario Cristobal, look for a high level of enthusiasm from Florida International. In many ways last week’s dismal loss at Kansas was basically “mailed inâ€, as he kept key players fresh for a game that they have a legitimate chance to win. We will call them to be alive for the straight-up aspect of this one for a long time, and for a struggling Blue Raider squad to never be able to build any kind of margin.
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2007 3:45pm -
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Pointwise ~ Newsletter Plays
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COLLEGE TOP 2 LAST 3 WEEKS: 6-0 SWEEP!!
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
RUTGERS over Maryland RATING: 1
OREGON STATE over Ucla RATING: 1
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2007 3:46pm -
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LARRY NESS
My LEGEND Play is on Nevada at 4:05 ET. UNLV/Nevada is a bitter rivalry and it's always meant more to the school which hails from "The Biggest Little City in the World!" These schools have met every year since 1989, with Nevada beating its rival from the south 10 of 11 times through 1999. UNLV then ripped off five straight wins but Nevada's won and covered each of the last two years. UNLV is off a HUGE win last week, beating Utah 27-0, its first win over the Utes as a conference foe in eight games and its first win over Utah overall, since 1979. UNLV also played Wisconsin tough two weeks ago, losing just 20-13, as almost four TD underdogs. However, the Badgers are overrated and let's remember that while Utah did beat UCLA 44-6 (benefiting from five TOs), the Utes have averaged just 269.7 YPG in losing to Ore St, Air Force and UNLV. Meanwhile, Nevada has beaten only Nicholls St but QB Graziano has averaged 286.5 YPG (7-3 ratio) in the two games since his 8-of-24 109-yard effort at Nebraska. RB Lippincott has run for 267 yards (6.4 YPC) after finishing with minus-five yards vs the 'Huskers. Head coach Chris Ault returned to Reno in '04 and since then has led this team to a 16-3 SU mark at home. The Wolf Pack are a perfect 11-0 ATS as home favorites and he knows how much this game means to his school. Let's not forget that UNLV's win at Utah St 23-16 (Utah St is 0-4 TY!) on Aug 30, ended a 15-game road losing streak for the Rebels, in which they were 2-10-1 ATS as road dogs. Nevada was off last week and that should give them "fresher legs," which is a big advantage playing at this altitude. LEGEND Play on Nevada.
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2007 3:46pm -
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ACE ACE
Record 12-5 +$1814.00
S.florida +7 1/2 Buy The 1/2 -116.........................$400
Rutgers-16 1/2 -105.............................................$4 00
Okl-22.5 -101............................................... ........$300
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 27 2007 4:01pm -
0 likes
Dave Malinsky
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6* Rutgers..
5* Baylor
4* Miss. St.
4* Wisc.
4* Tulsa
4* Fla. Int.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:13pm -
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rossbenjaminsports
Maryland @ Rutgers 7:45 PM ET 9/29/2007
Play On: Rutgers –16.0
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Greg Schiano has this Rutgers team looking like some of the old Miami Hurricanes teams that he was the defensive coordinator of. His quarterback Mike Teel leads the country in efficiency ratings. He has a Heisman Trophy candidate in Ray Rice and his defense is ranked nationally near the top of most statistical categories. This will be the Scarlet Knights sternest test this season but one they will be well prepared for. Play on Rutgers minus the points as a free selection.
Any non-conference away underdog off BB SU and ATS underdog losses, versus an opponent off a SU win in a non-lined game, and has a .500 or better record is 0-6 SU and ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory by the favorite in those games is an astounding 35.0 points per game.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:13pm -
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Additional Spreitzer
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Scott Spreitzer's 2nd CFB Conference GAME OF THE YEAR!
*5-0, 100%
I'm laying the points with Oregon State. The Bruins caught a bad break in last week's loss to Washington when "backup" QB Patrick Cowan tore a knee ligament. He'll be out for at least three to four weeks which means Ben Olson will be under center in all likelihood at the start of this game. Cowan is the better QB for this offense and Olson is also not without injury. The Bruin signal-caller has suffered a couple of head injuries. If he can't go the entire game, the onus of the UCLA offense will lie squarely on the shoulders of RSFR McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who has yet to throw a collegiate pass. But I don't mind if Olson goes the distance because I just don't think he has the ability to lead UCLA on the road. Olson has connected on just 50.5-percent of his passes going 49-of 97 with a weak 5-4 TD-to-INT ratio. He'll be facing a Beaver defense that picked up four more sacks last week, now with 14 on the season. The bottom line for OSU is to hang onto the ball. Last week the offense kept putting the defense in bad spots after jumping out to a 19-0 lead at Arizona State. But the offense has just three turnovers in two home games, much better than the way they've fared on the road. And, the OSU passing game, more specifically QB Sean Canfield is getting just what the doctor ordered. He's facing a Bruin defense that's been shredded for 722 passing yards the last two weeks. More importantly for Canfield, UCLA has allowed a 12-to-3, TD-to-INT ratio this season. The Bruins have allowed 109 points in four games, including 75 in their last two. Last Saturday, they needed a kickoff return for a TD and an INT return for a TD to pull away from Washington, just one week removed from being on the wrong side of a slaughter at the hands of one-dimensional Utah. UCLA is 2-0 in conference play, but I believe they'll get exposed in this one. The Beavers are a strong 24-13 ATS in their last 37 home conference affairs. Oregon State is my Pac-10 GOY. Thanks! GL! Scott
Scott Spreitzer's CFB 25* Bookie-Busting BLOWOUT!
*12-1, 92% (Sat.)
I'm laying the points with Nevada on Saturday. I'm using a UNLV game for the third straight week on these pages...looking for our third straight win. As a season-ticket holder, I'm not just a glutton for punishment, but really get a fantastic feel for the Mountain West by attending the games. And, I have a feel for the Rebels like no other team by watching them week-after-week. UNLV is making strides in the right direction. They have more speed on defense than they have had in many years. But, they're way too aggressive and that will be their defensive downfall in this one. The Rebels can stop one-dimensional attacks like Utah, Utah State, and Wisconsin. But they're not equipped to even slow down spread attacks (ala Hawaii) or the bastardized shotgun in Reno, known as the "Pistol". Toss in a week off for Hall of Fame HC Chris Ault to watch game-tapes and prepare and we're talking potential for a blowout. Offensively, the Rebels are making baby-steps. Fortunately for us, it's under the direction of RSFR Travis Dixon. He may be in for a strong career, but to say he's horribly inaccurate at this juncture is a gross understatement. The Rebels will be forced into a high-octane tilt by the Wolfpack and that will be UNLV's complete undoing. It must be noted that the Rebel players and fans stormed the field after the upset win over Utah. You'd think they won the Mountain West. Trying to regroup for the complex UNR offense is too much to ask. Finally, The Rebels are a money-burning 2-7-1 ATS as an away dog under HC Mike Sanford. The visitor in the battle for the Fremont Cannon is 3-7 ATS the last 10 meetings, and HC Chris Ault is a perfect 11-0 ATS as a home favorite. The early money came heavily on the dog, giving us even more value with the Wolfpack. We'll take advantage with a 25* release on Nevada minus points. Thanks! GL! Scott.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:14pm -
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Bettorsworld
Indiana at Iowa - This is a series that Iowa has held the upper hand in but Indiana closed the gap a bit last year by beating Iowa 31-28. This Indiana team is largely intact from a year ago and is off to a 3-1 start, albeit against weaker opposition. But Iowa not exactly lighting up the scoreboards. They scored just 13 on both Wisconsin and Iowa State and 16 on Northern Illinois, while they beat up on Syracuse 35-0. The number is a little too high in this one. Indiana +11
Air Force at Navy - Navy has won the last 4 in this series but the tide is about to turn. Not sure how Navy is favored here. They have put a few points on the board but they also can't stop anyone. Even Temple scored 19 on them and Duke, one of the other worst programs in the land had a shoot out with Navy last week before dropping a 46-43 decision. Air Force has performed better this year, against stiffer competition. In a game that figures to go to who can run the ball, gotta side with an Air Force team giving up 2.7 yards per rush over a Navy team giving up 4.6. Also note the turnover differential. Air Force +5 and Navy -2. Air Force finally wins one in the series. Air Force +2.5
California at Oregon - Big PAC 10 showdown between two 4-0 teams. This is a series that Oregon has held the upper hand in until Cal's recent rise to prominence. Both teams lighting up scoreboards but both teams also questionable on defense. Early money in this one has gone on Oregon but we feel that in a game like this, with two potent offenses and questionable defenses, the points are the way to go. There's some 5.5's out there as we write this on Wednesday. Hold out for at least +6 and take Cal here. California +6
Alabama at Florida State - Florida State still trying to pull things together after an off season coaching staff shake up. This, my friends, is obviously not the Florida State we've known over the last decade or more. But the decline didn't just happen this year. Everyone saw the signs last year which is what caused the staff shakeup in the first place. So far this year FSU has lost to Clemson, gotten by UAB by 10 and Colorado by 10. In the meantime, Alabama in off two dog fights with Arkansas and Georgia, winning one and losing the other, both by 3. The Alabama teams we're used to are the teams that play tough defense but can't score. Not the case anymore with the Nick Saban version. This team can put some points on the board. Something Florida State USED to be able to do! This game a simple case of feeling we have the better team getting points. Hopefully their last two games didn't take too much out of them. Alabama +2.5
Auburn at Florida - When you checked your schedules in August, I doubt many thought the line on this one would be 10 points! Especially when you consider Auburn was third in wins in all of college football over the last three years. This is a dangerous spot for Florida with LSU on deck in what will be the most talked about game in college football next week. The potential to catch Florida looking ahead is always there, however this ones a big revenge game as Auburn knocked off the Gators last year 27-17. The 18 points is very tempting. Auburn is not terrible and we aren't sold on Florida. But for now, we'll make a weak call on the Gators. Florida -18
Penn State at Illinois - At the very least, I hope the aspiring handicappers out there have learned something from a team like Penn State this year. Namely, don't get caught up in early season wins against cup cake schedules. It happens every year and all the big names are guilty of it. Florida comes to mind. So now Penn State travels to Illinois and faces the possibility of starting 0-2 in Big 10 play. Illinois is a team that came close several times last year. They lost some close games against some good teams. Last year Illinois held a 9-3 lead at the half and for the game held Penn State to 40 yards rushing while they piled up 202 of their own. Mistakes cost Illinois. A fumble recovery for TD and a kickoff return for a TD in the final minutes, as well as a safety were the difference in the game. Take away those 16 points and you have a 12-10 Illinois win. It's been a common theme this year. Take a team not used to success in their conference, and give them a little confidence to go with their already improving talent, and you have the makings for a year to remember. Illinois +3
Michigan State at Wisconsin - If only Michigan States 4 wins this year came against better opposition. Bowling Green, UAB, Pitt and Notre Dame not the best resume in 2007. Not their fault. But that doesn't change things. On paper coming in this year, Wisconsin figured to be the talk of the Big 10. Loaded from last year with their only major loss being QB Stocco. Statistically speaking, this game breaks out fairly even. When we take into account the home field edge and the quality of opposition, that's where the 7 point number is justified. But we're going to side with the dog here. It's huge game between two undefeated teams and a we have a Michigan State team that's hungry to taste a little Big 10 success. Anytime you have a 7.5 point dog in a situation where a straight up win wouldn't be a shocker, you have some nice value. Michigan State +7.5
Pittsburgh at Virginia - Just not ready to lay a touchdown with a Virginia team that only got by Duke 24-13. Looking for Pitt to bounce back after last weeks blow out home loss to Uconn. Take that one away and Pitt year so far respectable. Pitt also 8-3 against the number vs the ACC and spanked Virginia 38-13 last year. Not the strongest of calls but we'll take the TD. Pitt +7
Louisville at NC ST - Anytime you have a defense like Louisville spotting a team a decent sized number, you have to take a close look at the dog. You need look no further than last weeks home loss to Syracuse giving up 38 points in the process. NC ST not looking great, but consider that they have played Boston College and Clemson, two of the better defensive teams in the nation, and managed to score 17 and 20 points in those losses. This is another situation where having played some very good football teams will help NC ST in this one. Again, having tried things offensively and failed against BC and Clemson, they'll find the going a tad easier against one of the worst defenses in the nation. As things start to click offensively, with it will come some confidence. No reason this one can't come down to the wire and if that's the way it plays out, we'll gladly take the +9 or hopefully more come Saturday. NC ST +9
Clemson at Georgia Tech - Last year Clemson blew out Tech but that's not the norm in this series. The last 11 in series have seen 9 of those decided by 5 or less with 7 of those being decided by 3 or less. Matter of fact the dog in this series is 17-2 against the number the last 19. Look for more of the same here. Neither team has played an impressive schedule to this point. Georgia Tech the more desperate of the two as they sit at 2-2 and 0-2 on the ACC. A loss here would be critical to their season. Clemson on the other hand is undefeated. Any way you slice this one it looks close. So, points the way to go. Clemson +3
Notre Dame at Purdue - 52, 52, 45, 45. That's Purdue's point production thru 4 games this year. 3, 10, 0, 14......that's Notre Dames point production thus far. Hard to imagine the Irish being able to keep up here. But again we have to point out the schedule and the presence of some cup cakes on one of these teams dance card. Toledo, Eastern Illinois, Central Michigan and Minnesota. That's Purdue's schedule to date. Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State. That's Notre Dame schedule. Cupcakes Cupcakes who's got the cupcakes??? We really have no interest in this game from a betting standpoint but wanted to point out the scheduling dynamics here. Use caution. Things aren't always what they seem in college ball. Especially at the end of September. No Play
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:14pm -
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Ron Raymond's CFL Picks
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Montreal 52.0 vs. Saskatchewan -6
Pick: Saskatchewan -6.0
Ron’s Comment: The CFL is a quarterback league and when your number one pivot is sidelined with a rotary cuff, chances are you will struggle. The Alouettes are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and without AC and Watkins and Cahoon, the Als are finding out their depth chart is not as deep as other clubs. However, Calvillo is expected to be back this weekend, but they will be facing a desperate Roughriders team who just lost a heartbreaker last weekend vs. the Lions and are currently riding a 3 game losing streak. In fact, from a point spread point of view, they haven’t covered a spread since August 10th in a 24-13 road win vs. the Argos as a -5.5 point road chalk. Montreal is very lucky to be a .500 ball club right now and with 2 straight back to back loses to Edmonton, you can see tension are high in Alouettes camp these days and we all know what happens when you start pointing fingers. Play on Saskatchewan -6.
ATSDatabase Tip: When ANY CFL Team played as a Home team -During the month of September -With 6 day off - Coming off a game scored 34 points or less - Coming off back to back SU loss; The Home Team is 20-5 ATS in this role.
Forecast: Saskatchewan 34 Montreal 17
Hamilton 50.5 vs. Winnipeg -10
Pick: UNDER 50.05
Ron’s Comment: When the line first came out, I thought Hamilton as a +10 point road underdog was a good value play, but that was with Casey Printers starting, not Ritchie Williams. Plus, with Jesse Lumsden in the backfield, he can get you some decent yardage which can result in some points, either a field goal or touchdowns. Plus, Nick Setta is probably the best place kicker in the CFL and that’s money when you’re betting underdogs. As for the Blue Bombers, they are coming off a 31-23 lost to Toronto, but failed on their comeback, after being down 21-1 at the half. To be honest, this is a tough game to call, because you have two different types of offenses with Printers and Williams at the helm. However, the strongest part about the Tiger Cats is their defense, so let’s play on their strength of keeping this a low scoring game.
ATSDatabase Tip: When WINNIPEG team played as Home team as a Favorite - Coming off a 2 Road stand; The UNDER is 12-3-0 for the Blue Bombers in this spot.
Forecast: Winnipeg 24 Hamilton 14
Calgary 54.5 vs. B.C.Lions -10.5
Pick: UNDER 54.5
Ron’s Comment: The Stampeders are coming off a double jeopardy here, as they lost to the last place team Hamilton Tiger Cats last weekend and lost their starting QB Henri Burris to injury in the dying seconds of the game in which he was marching his team for a score. Now, when you look at the B.C.Lions, they are coming off an emotional division last minute win last weekend vs. Saskatchewan, in which tempers were at a all time high for both teams. The line opened at -7.0 and the Burris injury news raised this line to -10.5. The Lions are in a classic letdown spot here vs. the Stampeders, but it’s hard to put your faith and money onto a QB like former Oregon Ducks standout Akili Smith, when he’s got no CFL experience and he’s heading into the Lions den this weekend. I would recommend you don’t touch the side on this game, as the Lions could be flat and the Stamps could have allot of 2 and outs. Play the UNDER.
ATSDatabase Tip: When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a Home team -After a division game - Coming off a 1 game over; The UNDER is 14-3-0 for the Lions in this spot since 1996.
Forecast: B.C.Lions 31 Calgary 7
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posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:14pm -
0 likes
David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 6* RUTGERS over MARYLAND
The best spots in college football are those in which we have prime Play On and Play Against situations in the same game, and that is exactly what we have here, which means time to go to our top rating. An emerging Rutgers team comes in more than fresh and ready to go in this one, having had Saturday off following that 59-0 walkover vs. Norfolk State two weeks ago, and not only do the Scarlet Knights have the explosiveness to make things happen (in addition to the running of Heisman candidate Ray Rice, Mike Teel has already thrown four TD passes of more than 40 yards), but the will as well – Greg Schiano has gone 7-2 ATS the last 2+ seasons when favored by more than a touchdown, and understands full well what this non-conference game can mean in terms of BCS implications later on.
If Rutgers is the power puncher here, Maryland brings a glass jaw. One of the prime situations that we look for is to find teams that have just suffered a defeat in a revenge setting, particularly if it was a gut-wrenching loss. In Maryland’s case it is a multi-game sequence. Two weeks ago the Terrapins put a lot of energy into upsetting West Virginia at home on a Thursday night in front of the national cameras, but were never really in the hunt. They then tried to make up for that in an A.C.C. revenge affair at Wake Forest last week, and for a long time it appeared that they were on their way. Instead they took one of the toughest punches of the college season so far, which leaves them ever so fragile this week.
Maryland led 24-3 in the third quarter on Saturday, and had the ball at the Deacon tree-yard line with a chance to break it wide open. Instead, Jordan Steffy threw a pass that was intercepted at the goal line by Alphonso Smith and returned 100 yards for a TD. A good team can still suck it up at that point, getting the ball back up 24-10, but a bad team shatters. The Terrapins are a bad team. Steffy only threw two more passes the rest of the game, both incompletions. In the fourth quarter and the overtime period the offense was on the field for 18 plays, and gained one yard. Final score: Wake Forest 31-24. Instead of playing to win the game, Ralph Friedgan succumbed to fear, and when a coach does that he is telling us much about his team. And he did not deny it afterwards - â€I was trying to help our defense stay off the field. I'm worried I got a young quarterback who had just thrown an interception and didn't want to do it again…We got tired; we were on the field a long time. It was hot, and some of our inexperience and our mistakes continue to show."
The bottom line, of course, is that Maryland does not have a QB that is capable of handling this kind of situation. Now instead of trying to milk a game from behind Friedgan will have no choice but to have Steffy take on a defense loaded with both outstanding talent and the right tactics to maximize it – Rutgers finished #8 in the nation in pass efficiency defense LY, and is currently #5 this season. While a weak schedule has contributed to the current rating, this is a deep and experienced secondary that will stay high in those rankings all season. And with Steffy already having been sacked 15 times this season, they get a shell-shocked QB to take advantage of.
Under the best of circumstances this is a difficult matchup for Maryland; given the psychological aspects this week we expect the game to break wide open, with no fear at all of the Terrapins passing their way back in through the back door.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:15pm -
0 likes
rob ferringo
FRIDAY'S SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 56.0 West Virginia at South Florida (7:30 p.m., Friday, Sept. 28)
The Bulls have had the remedy for Steve Slaton and Pat White over the past two years and I think this total is a bit high for a game featuring two stellar defenses. The ‘under’ is 20-7 in South Florida’s last 27 games and 7-3 in West Virginia’s last 10 as a road favorite. An average of 42 points has been scored in the past two meetings, an average of just 46.4 points have been scored in WVU road games since the start of 2004, and an average of just 44.5 points have been scored in USF’s home games since the start of 2005. We have a primetime game and everyone’s thinking shootout. We’ll go the other way.
1-Unit Play. Take #103 West Virginia (-7) over South Florida (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29)
The Mountaineers are 12-2 ATS in weekday games and are 18-1 ATS when they win straight up with revenge against a conference opponent. South Florida is outstanding, but this is a better WVU defense and they have added the explosive Noel Devine. South Florida lost three of its top four tacklers from last year’s team and former Bulls offensive coordinator Rod Smith – the man who devised last year’s upset game plan – is on the Mountaineers sideline. West Virginia is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games, 13-6-1 ATS as a favorite, and 23-10-1 ATS against the Big East. I think that South Florida will only lose 2-3 games this year, but this is one of them. WVU 31, USF 20.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take #150 Southern Methodist (-1) over Texas-El Paso (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29)
Note: This is our College Game of the Month.
Play on any home team that won and covered in its last game after starting 0-3 ATS. This system has hit 60.9 percent over the past decade, including a 32-14 mark if our team is a dog or favorite of 3.0 or less. Further, conference home teams in this spot are 44-23 ATS. Toss in revenge, a UTEP team that’s been winning ugly, and the fact that the home team is 7-2 SU in this series and this is a solid system play. Justin Willis didn’t play in this game last year – a game that SMU nearly won anyway. He is better than UTEP’s redshirt freshman, Trevor Vittatoe, and in a nip-tuck game having the top QB makes all the difference. UTEP is without five defensive starters (including both corners) and hasn’t won three straight conference openers in fifty years. UTEP is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 conference games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. SMU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 conference games. Finally, UTEP is 0-7 in its last seven games following a game against a Div. I-AA team.
5-Unit Play. Take #161 Kent State (-2) over Ohio (3 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29)
Note: This is our Gridiron Game of the Week.
I think that the steam move on this game – from Ohio -3 to Kent -2 – tells the story. The visitor is 6-1 ATS in this series and the Golden Flashes are 3-1 ATS lately. Kent State simply has a better team. They have been playing exceedingly well, but stupid mistakes and some bad officiating has cost them. Ohio is 95th in the country in run defense and Kent boasts one of the better one-two rushing punches in the country.
4-Unit Play. Take #125 Syracuse (-120) over Miami, OH (3 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29)
The Orange are 3-0 against the Redhawks in their three meetings and they are a stellar 24-11 ATS over the past eight years in nonconference games. They are also 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 against the MAC while Miami is 6-13 ATS as an underdog. The Redhawks are unsettled at quarterback and are without both of their top running backs. Miami has lost seven straight at home and I think they’ll struggle against the momentum of the Orange.
3-Unit Play. Take #130 Oregon (-5.5) over California (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29)
I think that the Ducks defense is better equipped to handle the Cal attack than vice versa. The Bears are banged up and inexperienced on the defensive side of the ball and I think that the Ducks have too much firepower in this one. Oregon is 4-1 ATS in the last five games overall against Cal and 6-1 ATS playing them at home. Cal is 0-4 ATS as an underdog, 3-7 ATS overall, and 3-7 ATS on the road over the past two years and I think they get exposed in this one. Finally, Oregon is 30-1 ATS in their last 31 games after rushing for 200 or more yards.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 54.5 UCLA at Oregon State (6:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29)
After two uncharacteristically high scoring games out of these offenses, I think that this one will be controlled by the powerful veteran defenses. The ‘under’ is 11-5 in OSU’s last 16 home games and 4-1 in UCLA’s last five games as an underdog.
3-Unit Play. Take #188 Arizona (-2.5) over Washington State (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29)
The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and are desperate for a home victory. I mean desperate. Washington State is 101st in the nation in pass defense and Arizona’s been throwing the ball at a record clip. Arizona is pathetic as a home favorite – and that’s the only reason this wager isn’t higher.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #160 Toledo (+1.5) over Western Michigan (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29)
This fits into the same systems as the SMU selection, including the qualifiers of a small line and a conference game. Toledo is 39-5 SU in the Glass Bowl, 6-0 as a home dog over the past eight years, and hasn’t lost to Western Michigan at home (or in back-to-back years) since 1988. WMU is 5-13 in their last 18 MAC road games and have lost nine straight in the Glass Bowl.
2-Unit Play. Take #203 Louisiana-Monroe (+13.5) over Troy (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29)
The Trojans cannot stop the run and that’s what the Warhawks do better than any other team in the Sun Belt. The Hawks had an extra week to prepare and are facing a team that they are 3-0 ATS against over the past four seasons. Troy is just 3-9 ATS as a favorite of seven points or more since 2002 and I think they are relying too much on their explosive offense. If ULM can limit turnovers – which just about no team that we’ve wagered on lately seems to do – then I think they can not only keep this close but also potentially spring the upset. I also like the first half play because La. Monroe has gotten off to a few fast starts this year while Troy seems to be a little overconfident in their ability to score at will. The Warhawks are 13-5 ATS as an underdog, 7-1 ATS on the road, and 5-1 ATS in conference play.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #133 Mississippi (+21.5) over Georgia (1 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29) AND
Take #199 Florida Atlantic (+28.5) over Kentucky (1 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 29)
Note: All online books offer 6- or 7-point teasers. But if you cannot, or would rather not, play these together I recommend playing each separate as a 1-Unit selection.
Georgia is 3-9 ATS at home as a double-digit favorite since the start of 2004. For some reason, these recent Bulldog teams have been playing down to the level of their competition. Ole Miss is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Athens and this is a Letdown-Look Ahead spot for Georgia between an OT win over Alabama and a revenge trip to Tennessee next week.
After emotional night games against Louisville and Arkansas, and with a Thursday trip to South Carolina and a home game against LSU on the horizon, I think we catch Kentucky looking ahead here. The Wildcats were in a similar spot near the end of last year and mustered just a two-point win over SBC foe ULM between games against Vandy and Tennessee. This is a prime Letdown-Look Ahead spot.
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:15pm -
0 likes
Doc's college
4* south flr....fri game
4* ill +3
4* ill under 46
4* ind +11
4* miss st. +13.5
4* miss st under 42
4* central flr -21.5
5* mich -16.5
6* mich st +7.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:15pm -
0 likes
Burns Saturday
Burns ABC TV GOY - Georgia Tech
Burns Non-Conference Main Event - Florida State
Burns ESPN Game of the Month - Tulane
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:16pm -
0 likes
Spylock
1 Lsu
1 Mich St
1 Alabama
1 Ariz St
3 Airforce
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:16pm -
0 likes
EXECUTIVE FOOTBALL
Sat , September 29 1:00
GEORGIA -15
over Mississippi
SAT, SEPT. 29
FREE SELECTION ANALYSIS
The Rebels are 1-3 both SU and ATS this season and are just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS
in their last nine road games.
The Bulldogs are 6-1 SU in their last seven games and 4-1-1 ATS
in their last six lined contests.
Georgia is 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS vs. Ole Miss
the last seven meetings.
Georgia brings momentum home off a road
win over Alabama, while Ole Miss travels
after a tough home loss to Florida.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:16pm -
0 likes
Texas Sports Wire
FRIDAY SEPT 28-PLAY NOW
5*SOUTH FLORIDA #104 (+7 or 7½) 7pm ESPN2
5th-ranked West Virginia (4-0 SU/3-0-1 ATS) rolled over East Carolina last week in a resounding 48-7 home win as -23½ point chalks. QB Pat White completed 18-of-20 passes for 181 yards and two TD's and also had nine carries for 42 yards and two rushing TD's; while Steve Slaton had 18 carries for 110 yards and a touchdown to lead a ground attack that produced 397 yards and four TD's. Darius Reynaud finished the game with five receptions for 54 yards and two touchdowns and he also had two rushes for 58 yards. West Virginia outgained ECU 599-160 in total offense, which included a 397-106 rushing edge and a 30-13 edge in FD's. The Mountaineers have 16 starters from last year's 11-2 team, including White and Slaton, who are both legitimate Heisman candidates. WV currently ranks 10th in the nation in total offense with 525 ypg and 2nd in rushing with 357 yards per game. The defense was the team's Achilles Heel last year, but they have improved this year, giving up just 273 ypg (#15). After starting the season with a 62-24 home win over Western Michigan (-24), the Mounties won road games at Marshall (48-23 / -25) and at Maryland (31-14 / -16½) before last week's rout. 18th-ranked South Florida (3-0 SU/2-0 ATS) is off a 37-10 home win over North Carolina as -11½ point favorites. QB Matt Grothe passed for 230 yards and a touchdown in the easy win for the Bulls. Grothe completed 17-of-30 passes, while Benjamin Williams added 64 yards rushing on 15 carries with a touchdown and Amari Jackson caught four passes for 33 yards and a TD. USF had 428-164 edge in total offense and won the time of possession battle 33:54 to 26:06, but they fumbled four times, losing three. South Florida also has 16 starters returning after going 9-4 and beating East Carolina 24-7 in the PapaJohns Bowl (-5) in 2006. The offense ranks 70th in the land with 373 ypg, slightly up from last year when they averaged 361 ypg (#44). The defense is the strength of the team as eight starters are back from last year's unit that finished 25th in total "D" (298 ypg) and 35th against the run (115 ypg). The Bulls have been impressive early on, ranking 7th in the nation (237 ypg) and 13th against the run (79 ypg). South Florida opened up the 2007 campaign with a 28-13 home win over Elon (NL) and followed that up with an impressive 26-23 OT (+7) win at then 16th-ranked Auburn before posting the win over North Carolina last week. West Virginia lost just two games in 2006, with one of those a bitter 24-19 loss at home to South Florida as -21 point favs last November 25th. The South Florida defense held the vaunted WV rushing attack to a season-low 132 yards on the ground and 310 yards of total offense; and also forced four turnovers to get the biggest win in school history. West Virginia is 10-3 ATS on the road, 44-17-1 ATS when rushing for more than 200 yards in their last game and 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 Big East games. South Florida counters with a 6-0 ATS mark at home and the Bulls are on an 8-2 ATS run in September. Coach Jim Leavitt's bunch is also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last year and 9-4 ATS as an underdog. This nationally televised game (ESPN) is expected to draw the biggest crowd for a home game in USF history and it will give the Bulls a chance to prove their victory over the Mountaineers in Morgantown last season wasn't a fluke.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 3:17pm -
0 likes
colin cowherd
Oregon, Oklahoma, USC, and W.VA
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 5:15pm -
0 likes
UTEP at SMU (-1) - 1:30pm Pacific - Game #149-150
SMU started to show positive signs last week at TCU. They actually had 10 more first downs and 102 more total yards than the Horned Frogs but were burned by a blocked punt return and interception return for touchdowns in a 21-7 loss. SMU also dropped a touchdown pass and failed on two 4th down tries inside the 25. The Mustang offense has underachived so far but could be sitting on a breakout game as they return home and face a much weaker defense. The much maligned SMU defense returned two players from injury and had by far their best performance of the season last week. Starting DE Patrick Handy (stinger) and part time RB Cedric Dorsey (thigh) missed last game but are expected to be ready for UTEP. SMU head coach Phil Bennett has to get to a bowl game this year to save his job which makes this a must win game for the Mustangs. UTEP has been outgained by an average of 173.7ypg against three 1-A opponents. They enter this week ranked just 78th in total offense despite facing the likes of New Mexico State and Texas Southern. Before last game UTEP head coach Mike Price called his team as beat up as any he has ever had. Defensively, the Miners are now without both of their starting cornerbacks indefinitely and Price noted after the game that three starting defensive linemen were "banged up" and would not be 100% for SMU game. Starting QB Vittatoe and several starters were pulled in the second quarter to avoid injuries as redshirts were pulled off of freshman at RB and CB for the game. UTEP covered the +6 for us vs New Mexico State two weeks ago but were outplayed badly and should have lost by double digits. This team does not have any strength right now. Miners are 2-8 straight up in last 10 road games and SMU is 5-2 ATS in last seven as a home favorite. Give the small number.
RAS Early Look: SMU -1 1/2 UNIT
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:24pm -
0 likes
Joey Gaffney
NCAA FB Picks
Team Units Line
Texas 8* PP 15
South Florida 3* BB 8
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:24pm -
0 likes
Neri:
4-ore, Tulsa, Rut
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:24pm -
0 likes
Nationwide (goldst):
Top: La Tech, Reg: S Car, Ala, Io St, Nev, Ucla Under
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:24pm -
0 likes
Valleysports
5* Tulsa
4* VaTech
3* Clem
3* Minn over60
2* Ala
2* Mich St
2* Va
2* Rutgers
2* Fla Atl
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:25pm -
0 likes
Inside Info:
3-NEV, 2-UTAH, ND
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:25pm -
0 likes
Pointwise
Late Phone Service
oregon 4
tulsa 4
rutgers 3
nevade 3
illonis 3
fsu 3
gt 3
texas 3
temple 3
oregon st 3
ohio st 2
souther cal----- 2
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:25pm -
0 likes
PPP Steamrollers
5% Kent St
3% Rutgers
Private Plays
5% Uconn
3% Va
3% Vt
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:25pm -
0 likes
MIKE NERI SPORTS
4* Oregon - 6.5
4* Tulsa - 22
4* Rutgers - 17.5
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:25pm -
0 likes
Gameday:
4* Louisville
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:26pm -
0 likes
Big Money:
UCLA
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:26pm -
0 likes
Executive
CONFERENCE PLAY OF THE WEEK
1-0
Saturday, Sept. 29
12:00 Eastern
IOWA -10' over Indiana
IOWA is 20-8 ATS in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games.
IOWA is 55-36 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread.
IOWA is 10-2 ATS in home games after a game where they committed no turnovers.
IOWA is 23-7 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry.
Ferentz is 25-10 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of IOWA. Ferentz is 19-7 ATS off a road loss as the coach of IOWA.
posted by phantom
Sept. 28 2007 9:26pm -
0 likes
PURELOCK (NCAAFB 4-0 ):
NEBRASKA
CTO (11* 1-0-1):
11* UCONN
KELSO (50* 4-1 ):
100* U N L V
25* (not yet posted)
10* ARIZONA STATE
College BlowOut -(not yet posted)
SERVANSKY (7-2-1 LW):
20* WISCONSIN
SPREITZER ( 6-2 LW 1-2 this week ):
Pac 10 GOY- OREGON STATE
25* NEVADA
ILLINOIS
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:05pm -
0 likes
Vegas Snitch
North Carolina +20= Perfect Storm....
Illinois-Penn St Over 43=Vault...
Duke +24=MD...
Penn St-3=MD...
Notre Dame-Purdue Under 54.5=Vault
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:07pm -
0 likes
spreitzer-
ko................dbacks
tko..............stl
5 star total.........kc undr 9
special release............texas
special release...........nebraska
main event.................nevada
insider......................florida
insider pac 10 goy............oreg st
10 star total of month...............wash st over 59.5
ko...............oreg, virg
tko.....................tulsa, new mex
tko situational shocker of week.........fla atl
5 star hammer.......................ohio st, purdue
3 star total......................col
feist--
special total...................mets over 10
personal best.................seat
special release...................col st over 45.5, virg
personal elite......................new mex
dog gom...................bama
pac10 goy....................oreg st
mac goy..................toledo
rivalry goy...................reno
personal best....................indiana
platinum.........................tulsa, ill
inner circle....................purdue,mich st
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:07pm -
0 likes
ALLEGHENIES ANALYSIS 4* (from Don Wagner)
His official Play-O-Day
4* Iowa (over Indiana)
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:08pm -
0 likes
Wise guy sports
Jimmy Price
Duke 2 units
Northwestern 2 units
Akron 1 unit
Utah 1 unit
Nick Patrick
Florida 3 units
Cal 2 units
Oregon State 2 units
______________
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:08pm -
0 likes
Paul Leiner
25* Louisville -8
25* Oklahoma -23
25* Maryland +18
free play 10* Over 46 Army/Temple
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:08pm -
0 likes
Wayne Root
Chairman - New Mexico
Millionaire - Washington
Moneymaker - Illinois
No Limit - Florida St.
Insider Circle - Miami Of Ohio
Billionaire - Georgia Tech
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:08pm -
0 likes
Asa 6*
Florida State
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:09pm -
0 likes
Big Al
Championship - Georgia
Blue Chip - Rutgers
Linemovers - Miami Hurricanes
10 Dimes - Central Michigan
Offshore - Virginia Tech
Computer Boys - Texas
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:09pm -
0 likes
Northcoast
marque: colorado st, purdue
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:09pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB
9/29/07 - College
HEAVY BULLSEYE
PLAY AGAINST the defending college National Champion as a favorite of
-13 or more points if they allow 12.5 > points per game on the
season, are off a win of 22 or fewer points, and are facing an
opponnet that scored > 10 points in it's last game.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 0-18 Play Against: Florida
Rationale: Defending National Champions carry a lot of weight and are
almost always a key game on each opponents' schedule. When they show
a tendency that that they are not hitting on all cylinders, and are
facing a formidable opponent, they really struggle in the pointspread
wars.
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:11pm -
0 likes
Bryan Leonard
Absolute Blowout
We swept the football board last Saturday and Sunday with a perfect 6-0 mark. We are releasing a mismatch on Saturday which is sure to catch the eyes of the wise guys. Which is why we are releasing this blowout early before what we expect to be a sizable line move.
Purdue -21.5 over ND
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:11pm -
0 likes
PURELOCK
5* NEBRASKA (College Football)
5* MLB (major League baseball) Houston
5* NFL (PRO FOOTBALL) Carolina
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:11pm -
0 likes
Wolkosky Milan
133-88-5 last fourty two days!!!
3-2 Yesterday! 2-0 CFB!
Today:
10* GEORGIA TECH +3
10* NEVADA -3½
10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3
10* OREGON STATE -2
10* KSU/TEX OVER 55½
10* PSU/UOI UNDER 45
10* BYU/NM UNDER 55½
Free: TULANE +41½
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:12pm -
0 likes
Tom Stryker
Tom Stryker's 5 Star September Super Play
#136 FLORIDA (-) over Auburn at 8 PM EST
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:12pm -
0 likes
ATS Lock Club
8 units on Wisconsin (-7) over Michigan State, 3:30
8 units on Nevada (-3 1/2) over UNLV, 4:00
7 units on UL Monroe (+13) over Troy State, 7:00
7 units on Central Michigan (-3) over Northern Illinois, 12:00
Do a 2 unit round robin parlay on all 4 games
5 units on Colorado (+23) over Oklahoma, 1:30
Parlays will consist of:
Wisconisn and Nevada
Wisconsin and UL Monroe
Wisconsin and Central Michigan
Nevada and UL Monroe
Nevada and Central Michigan
UL Monroe and Central Michigan
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:12pm -
0 likes
POINT TRAIN
7* ILLINIOS +3 5-0 top play CFB
3* MISS ST +13'
3* BUFFALO +13'
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:13pm -
0 likes
Sebastian Sports
20* Maryland
20* C. Mich
20* Ball St.
20* New Mexico
20* Fl. St.
30* Indiana
30* Wisc (buy down to 7)
50* Louisana Monroe (buy up to +14)
50* Nevada
100* Oregon St.
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:13pm -
0 likes
Northcoast
4-Tx-14-
4-SD St+14-
4-Tulsa-23
3-Org St+2-
3-Oregon-6-
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:14pm -
0 likes
Executive
300% Iowa
300% Fsu
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:14pm -
0 likes
Wise Guy Moves
Wise Guy Move: Gm# 119 BUFFALO UN 64½
Wise Guy Move: Gm# 114 SO CAR-13½
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:26pm -
0 likes
Score
400 Oreg St S Car
300 Rutg Cincy
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:27pm -
0 likes
Score
400% Oregon State
400% South Carolina
300% Rutgers
300% Cinncinatti
Gator
4* Georgia Tech
3* Indiana
3* UTEP
3* UL Lafayette
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:27pm -
0 likes
Vegas high rollers
100 Wisky
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:27pm -
0 likes
Feist
10 Oreg St Toledo Nevada Alabama Ohio St
5 Louis Cincy
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:30pm -
0 likes
Rocketman
Purdue
Miami Ohio
Kent State
Cent Florida
Virginia
Arizona
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:31pm -
0 likes
marc lawrence
5* gom indiana
5* Auburn
PLAY AGAINST the defending college National Champion as a favorite of
-13 or more points if they allow 12.5 > points per game on the
season, are off a win of 22 or fewer points, and are facing an
opponnet that scored > 10 points in it's last game.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 18-0 system
Play Against: Florida
Rationale: Defending National Champions carry a lot of weight and are
almost always a key game on each opponents' schedule. When they show
a tendency that that they are not hitting on all cylinders, and are
facing a formidable opponent, they really struggle in the pointspread
wars.
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:31pm -
0 likes
Prime Star - 4*Buffalo
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:32pm -
0 likes
Blazer 4* Geo Tech,
3* Indiana, Texas elpaso, & La. Laf.
Nationwide 1 1/2 La. Tech
1* Sth Carolina, Alabama, Iowa St, Nevada, & Ucla Under
NorthCoast 4* Texas, San Diego ST, Tulsa
3* Oregon st & Oregon
Totals 4 * Mich/nthwest Over
3* Pennst Under, Pitt/vir Under
Probability 4* California
3* Alabama, Navy & Wash st
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:35pm -
0 likes
Underdog
Ga Tech
_____________
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:40pm -
0 likes
California Sports
3* Alabama
3* Navy
3* Wash st
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 12:41pm -
0 likes
Executive 600% Nebrasks
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 1:18pm -
0 likes
Wilcat -- 10* Ole Miss
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 1:18pm -
0 likes
Sports Unlimited - 15* Kent
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 1:18pm -
0 likes
Stu Finer
"Blank Check Winner"
10,000 DIME BLANK CHECK
GAME OF MY CAREER #2 IN A ROW
Florida State Seminoles -1.5 over Alabama
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 1:19pm -
0 likes
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Indiana @ Iowa Hawkeyes - Saturday September 29, 2007 12:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Indiana +10.5 (-109) (Normal)
Getting 25% of the total points in a ballgame is very nice, and to get it with a team coming off a rivalry game loss at home against a good Illinois team and facing a Iowa team that is starkly over-valued here is nice. Iowa is a decent team, but this team did lose on the road to Iowa State and offensively, they are not a very dynamic team. Indiana is. Indiana has put up 55, 37 and 41 and coming off that terrible loss and although I think Iowa wins this game, I don't think they do it by double-digits. Kellen Lewis is a dynamic quarterback that has thrown for 11t'ds and just 4 picks this year and he will keep them in this game. Hawkeyes are not the type of team that are good for covering big spreads as they are not built that way adn their 2-7 ATS record against double-digit spread indicates this.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: California Golden Bears @ Oregon Ducks - Saturday September 29, 2007 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Oregon Ducks -6.5 (-111) (Normal)
There is a reason why the #12th ranked team in the country is favored by nearly a touchdown over the #6th ranked team in the country. Even if Cal is up in this game early, I am not too worried considering how badly Oregon was getting beat at Stanford, losing outright and somehow managed to come back to cover a monster spread in the late stages. Simply remarkable. This team can score and strike in a hurry, and for those that think Cal's offense is great, Oregon puts up a touchdown more, but the difference here is that their defense is considerably better. Toss in the fact that Cal did not look sharp in their road game agaisnt Colorado State, Oregon should win this game by 13 points today. The Ducks have covered their last 4 and all 4 this season while Cal is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Hawaii @ Idaho Vandals - Saturday September 29, 2007 5:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Idaho Vandals +24.5 (-108) (Normal)
No, I haven't completely lost my mind. This game reminds me far too much of La Tech when they hosted Hawaii and Hawaii barely got out alive. Idaho comes off that terrible home loss losing outright to northern illinois and I think they show up to a good game to their fans and alumns in the crowd today. Brennan should be a bit rusty after some time off in the Charleston Southern game as the reserves got the job done. Idaho remembers the 58 point ass kicking they took on the road last year and they should show up at home today as they are a bit better from years' past. There are no trends that goes with this play, but considering this is also a public fade as well, I think Idaho falls within the cover.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Louisville @ NC State Wolfpack - Saturday September 29, 2007 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Under 71.5 (-109) (Normal)
An NC State game with a 71.5 total? I understand that Louisville's defense is terrible, horrible, pathetic and every other synonym you can think of . But NC State is not much better on offense. NC State has put up 20, 17 and 23 points overall as once again their game against Wofford does not count, and I think the Louisville defense has to eventually step up to the plate on defense. I think this is the game they do it. Imagine this, if the Kentucky/Louisville total is set at 76 and totals 74, then why would a Louisville/NC State game be totaled this much considering that Louisville has even more pressure on themselves to show up defensively and to correct the mistakes on defense. Under is 11-5 for the Cardinals following a straight up loss and the under is 5-1-1 in Wolfpack non-conference games.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Purdue Boilermakers - Saturday September 29, 2007 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 54.5 (-108) (Normal)
I have this game at 44-17. Typically I do not like Notre Dame overs but I want you to take a look at the over last week when Michigan State came into town. They rolled in, scored in the low 30's and allowed 14 points to Notre Dame in offensive points. I think that confidence carries over a bit and the Irish "one-up" themselves this week and put up roughly 2 touchdowns and an extra field goal while Purdue and their high powered offense, an offense that has yet to give up produce less than 40 points all year (minimum 45 points each game). I think Purdue starts destroying this team and by the 3rd quarter, the reserves come in and Notre Dame puts up their points late. I think Purdue scores no less than 45 in this contest and although I like Purdue to cover, I like my chances of Purdue possibly putting the total up by themselves. The over is 4-1-1 when Purdue is a 10.5 or greater.
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 1:20pm -
0 likes
Greg Roberts:
5* Tulsa
4* Rutgers, Oragon State
3* Nevada, Oragon, Ohio State
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 1:20pm -
0 likes
1. Ats 8-mich St, Nev, 7-la Mon, C Mich, 5-col
2. Bankers 2t 400-ind
3. Ben Burns 4t Gt, Fla St, Tulane, Stan, N Mex, Sd St
4. Big Money Ucla
5. Blazer 4-gt, 3-ind, Utep, La Laf
6. Carolina Sports 4-oh St, Kent, Neb, 3-navy, Rut
7. Doc Enterprises 9t 6-mich St, 5-mich, 4-ill & Under, Ind, Ms St & Under, C Fla
8. Dr. Bob 3-hou, Rut, 2-ky, Op: N Mex, Buff, Kent, Tol, Fla Int
9. Gameday 9t 4-louis, 3-wisc, N Mex, 2-af, Ind, Col St, Mn
10. Inside Info 3-nev, 2-utah, Nd
11. Joe D 7t 20-tulsa, 15-syr, La Laf
12. Lenny Stevens 7t 20-smu, N Mex, 10-mia-oh, Ore, Ariz St
13. Lt Profits 9t 2-mia Fl Under, Ohio U Under, Fla Int Under
14. Nationwide (goldst) Top: La Tech, Reg: S Car, Ala, Io St, Nev, Ucla Under
15. Neri 4-ore, Tulsa, Rut
16. Northcoast 2t 4-tx, Sd St, Tulsa, 3-ore St, Ore
17. Pointwise 1 4-ore, Tulsa, 3-rut, Nev, Ill, Fla St, Gt, Tx, Temp, Ore St, 2-usc, Oh St
18. Preferred Picks 4t 5-ind, 3-bay, Aub
19. Private Players 6 5-wisc, Ariz Over, 4-col St, Byu, 3-ms St, Louis, Tx A&m Over, Col Over
20. Score 400-ore St, S Car, 300-rut, Cn
21. Underdog Gt
22. Pure Lock Neb
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 1:21pm -
0 likes
Kelso Sturgeon
25* Blowout
Cincinnati
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 1:21pm -
0 likes
F I N A L
*****************************************
PURELOCK (NCAAFB 4-0 ):
NEBRASKA
CTO (11* 1-0-1):
11* UCONN
KELSO (50* 4-1 ):
100* U N L V
25* College BlowOut -CINNCINNATI
10* ARIZONA STATE
SERVANSKY (7-2-1 LW):
20* WISCONSIN
SPREITZER ( 6-2 LW 1-2 this week ):
Pac 10 GOY- OREGON STATE
25* NEVADA
(Other Plays) TEXAS, NEBRASKA,FLORIDA,OREGON,VIRGINIA,
TULSA,NEW MEXICO,OHIO STATE,PURDUE,COLORADO
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 1:23pm -
0 likes
THIS IS IT FOR ME GUYS GOOD LUCK
1. A-PLAY
2. ASA/ 3 SDSt , FlaSt , MichSt/ 6 FlaSt
3. ATS/ 8 Wisc , Nevada
4. BEN BURNS/LKS- Stanf, FlaSt, NM ST
Tulane, GaTech
5. BIG AL/ 5 Oregon
6. DAVE COKIN
7. DOC'S/ 6 LOCK MI ST / 5 MI / 4 ILL,ILL UNDER, IND, MISST ST, MISS ST UNDER, C FLA
8. EXECUTIVE/ 600 NEB / 300 NM, WASH ST
9. DR BOB/4 RUTG/ 3 KENT, HOUSTON, TOLEDO/ 2 BUFF, KENT, FLA INT, NM / STROGN OPINIONS PITT, TULSA
10. FINAL SCORE
11. GOLD KEY/ 100 FlaSt
12. GOLD SHEET/ Top- LaTech
13. GUARANTEED/ Top- Smu
14. HILTON CONTEST
15. INSIDE EDGE/5 N.Mex
16. JB SPORTS/ Top- E.Car
17. JIM FIEST/ LKS- Toledo, Nev,
Oregon St
18. KELSO/ 100 UNLY/ 10 ARI ST
19. LARRY NESS/ VERY RARE LEGEND PLAY 6-1 LAST 7YRS NEVADA
20. LATE INFO PLAYS/ 100 LaMonroe
21. LENNY STEVENS/ 20 Smu , N.Mex
22. LOCKEROOM/100 NCSt LOCK
23. MASTERS EDGE
24. MIKE LEE
25. MIKE NERI/ 4 OREGON, TULSA, RUTGERS
26. MVP POWER LOCKS/ 500 Nevada
27. NATIONAL SPORTSLINE/ 15 OregSt
28. NORTHCOAST/BIG 12 GOW NEB/ 4 Texas
4 SDSt , Tulsa
4 Over-Mich
29. POINTWISE/ 4 OREGON, TULSA / 3 NEV, ILL, FLA ST, GT, TEX, TEMP, OREGON ST / 2 OHIO ST
30. PRIME STAR/ 4 Buffalo
31. PREFERRED PICKS
32. PPP/ 5 WISC/ 4 COL ST, BUY,MISS ST/ TOTALS 5 OVER ARI/ OVER TEX A&AM/ 3 UND COLORAGO
33. SCORE/400 OREGON. SC / 300 RUTG, CINCY
34. SPORTS ADVISOR/ LOCK 10 GaTech
35. SPORTS NETWORK/ LK- SDSt
36. SPORTS ONE/ 7 Illinois/ 10 Texas
37. SPREITZER/ Top- Nevada/ LK- Oreg St
38. TIPPS
39. TEXAS INSIDERS/ 100 Utep
40. UNDERDOG/ LK- GaTech
41. VEGAS STEAM/ 10 Louis
42. VEGASH HI ROLLERs/ 100 Wisc LOCK
43. VICTORY SPORTS/LK- Penn St
44. VIP SPORTS/300 Under-Okla
45. WAYNE ROOT/ REG NM, GT, WAS ,LK- FlaSt
46. WORLD WAGER/LK- Rutg
47. WIZARD
48. ANIMAL/ Reg- Baylor & Over/ LK- Oreg
49. ENDZONE/LK- Penn St
50. YOURWINNERSONLY
51. LANG/ 25 OREGON/ 15 CLEMSON / 10 COL/ 5 SYRACUSE, ARMY
52.YOURWINNERSONLY HI LIFE CLUB/ 3 KENT / 2 W MI /1 UCONN
LOCKS 5 WIS, 4 FLA ST
53.GAMEDAY
posted by phantom
Sept. 29 2007 2:00pm