Head Scratcher 2
This weeks head Scratcher's will be the following
Head Scratcher #1
Maryland at Rutgers
Opening line Rutgers -13
Current line Rutgers -16.5
Public 83% on Rutgers
Throw out the first 2 games for Maryland and let's look at the last 2. They played a WV team that was supposed to break out everything in the playbook at them on national TV and they handled it pretty well. Yes they were beat by 17 but I was somewhat impressed with this Maryland team. Then they travel to Wake and should have won that game. I still don't know what happened there??? You really can't look at defensive stats because the Terps have only played 1 well balanced competitive team in Wake. WV is all run so the Rush Yards will be skewed this early in the season. On the flip side Rutgers has not played a Defense all year long and has had there way with their opponents. I thought the Navy game might show us something, but good lord that Navy Defense is horrible.
I will watch the Public % closely and the line moves. If it stays like it is now I will be all over Maryland. IMO this is too many points to give to a decent team.
Maryland +16.5 for now
Head Scratcher 2
Alabama vs. FSU Neutral Site
Opening line FSU -2.5
Current line FSU -2.5
Public 85% on Bama
I looked at this line and could not believe FSU was favored along with the rest of the country it looks like. FSU's rush D is tough allowing 73 ypg, but the pass D is somewhat suspect given the opponents they have played. But the Rush D is what stands out to me after playing a Rush oriented team like Clemson and still the ypg is that good. Believe me Bowden saw Arkansas expose how to beat Bama with the zone D, so I think the pass Defense will be ready for John Parker.
Watch this line move and public percents and if it stays like it is I will be on FSU.
Early lean FSU -2.5
Head Scratcher 3
Clemson at GT
Opening Line Clemson -3
Current Line Clemson -2.5
Public 96% on Clemson
GT is in a perfect position for an upset here. They are in desperate need of a win and a win at home. The matchup looks like it might set up well for them here as well.
Clemson has allowed 145 ypg on the ground and to who (FSU, NC State, Furman and UL MON)?? That is not very good at all. While GT runs the ball well averaging 203 ypg and only allowing 72 ypg (BC, Virginia, Samford and ND). OK that 2 suck, but the other 2 are very respectable teams. For a team that can shut the run down and that has a chance to take Clemson out of what they want to do sets up well for an upset. Especially for a team that needs a home win in the worst way to have any shot at all in the ACC.
Early lean on this game is
GT +2.5
Good luck to all and I welcome any thoughts and help with these games
posted by bigd
3 replies
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0 likes
BigD, I was somewhat surprised to see GT getting points at home. Already have 2 losses in the ACC. BC beat them at home as Ryan threw for 400+ and they lost at UVA last week, a place they haven't won since 1990 or so. I'm guessing line is due to GT losing 2 straight and the fact that last year Davis and Spiller ran crazy vs them, for 216 and 116 each. Tenuta is too good of a defensive coord to let that happen again. Clemson QB Harper has good #s so far, but this will be his first real road test and I'm sure Tenuta will have some surprises for him.
Good #: Dog 11-1 ATS L12 in this series
Bad #: Road team 6-2 ATS L8
9 of last 11 have been decided by 5 or less. Right now looks like around 67% on Clemson.
If I play it, I'll be on GT. What I'd really like to see is GT crush them and VT rip UNC, that way get a good line next week with VT @ Clemson. VT has done well against them but this will be Taylor's first road start and first start not vs Ohio, W&M, or UNC (all at home...he did get in at LSU). They have ZERO running game so that would be a lot of pressure on him. We'll see.
GL.
posted by teeks75
Sept. 26 2007 9:09pm -
0 likes
Teeks where do you get your Public Percents. I use sportsbook so they are not as accurate as I would hope for, but not gonna pay for it. They are pretty accurate if you follow them throughout the week.
I do not think GT should be favored at all in this game. They do not have a quality win over anyone. The 2 quality teams they played they lost and BC at home. No way should GT be favored IMO. In fact I think this line is too low on them getting points. Nonetheless it looks like we might be on the same side with different viewpoints. It doesn't matter as long as we are on the winning side.
Thanks for the input good stuff.
posted by bigd
Sept. 27 2007 6:30am -
0 likes
My Favorite Play for Tomorrow is
Georgia Tech +3
Public is still all over Clemson,86%, and they should be, but not me love this game.
The rest all all equal
FSU -1.5
Public still on Bama,85%, but not me.
Maryland +19
Public still all over Rutgers, 80%, but not me. This game I am more leary of, but if Vegas is going to give my 6 more points than what it opened at then so be it.
I am adding Stanford +14.5 against AZ St. I have been all over ASU this year as I think they have a really good team. This is their first road test and I do not believe Stanford should be this big of a dog.
OH YEAH, Public all over ASU, but not me.
I love fading the public no doubt, but not without looking into the matchups. If the matchups look good and the public is on them this is where I fade the Public.
GT +3 Favorite Play
FSU -1.5
Stanford +14.5
Maryland +19 (leary of this one, but going with gut)
GL to all
posted by bigd
Sept. 29 2007 1:09am