Marc Lawrence Playbook
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week
Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 15-1 (94%)
PLAY ON any winless NFL Game Four home team that is not a dog vs. a foe that is not off a SUATS loss.
Play On: MIAMI DOLPHINS
SMART BOX
FRESHEN UP
According to our powerful database, it seems Game
4 of the College Football season is often times a critical
stepping stone for teams who play with a week of rest. This
is especially true for teams that are installed as favorites.
That's confi rmed by a 82-62 ATS winning mark since 1980.
This week fi nds no less than four favorites that will take a
'freshening approach' to the games at hand. They include
Florida State, Fresno State, Nevada and Vanderbilt.
When these re-invigorated favs take on an opponent off a
win they improve to 46-22 ATS. That's a step in the right
direction, to be sure. More important is a startling 16-2
ATS mark when these teams take on a non-conference
opponent. Simply identify the non-conference favorites that
are taking on foes off a win from the list above and you're in
business. Once you have, raise your hand if you're sure!
BOISE ST over Southern Miss by 14
Boise routinely dispatches visitors to the blue turf, going 44-2 SU and
33-13 ATS in lined home games, including a sweet 11-0 pointspread
streak when favored by 12 or less points. Golden Eagles show up on the
endangered species list in scheduling situations like this: head coach Jeff
Bower is 1-18-1 SU and 6-14 ATS when playing a non-conference foe
away from Hattiesburg when stuck in the middle of a CUSA sandwich.
The Eagles’ 1-9 ATS mark of futility in Game Four and a dismal 0-5 ATS
run as dogs before back-to-back home games further seals their fate.
We’ll order some roasted fowl at the Boise Café today.
ARKANSAS ST over Memphis by 4
This is a replay of a game originally scheduled for September 8 that was
canceled due to lightning and dangerous weather. We picked Memphis
to win by 4 points then but after the Tigers' disastrous no-show at UCF
last week, we'll reverse roles and go with a more consistent Indian
squad that actually outstattted Texas in their season opener.
West Virginia over SOUTH FLORIDA by 10
South Florida’s shocking 24-19 upset in Morgantown proved to be
WVU’s only home loss in ’06 and effectively removed the Mounties
from national title consideration. Now Rich Rodriguez and company
have a chance to return the favor as both teams carry unbeaten records
into the fray. The Bulls are ferocious when it comes to defending their
Tampa turf, winning 42 of their last 51 home games SU – but they’re
nothing special when taking points, posting a lukewarm 5-4 ATS mark
in that role. Jed Clampett’s kinfolk are a near-perfect 18-1 ATS when
they win outright with conference revenge, plus they’ve covered four of
their previous fi ve Big East openers. We know White & Slaton will light
up the scoreboard but the WVU defense must equal the pressure they
applied to ECU if Rodriguez is to collect on a long-overdue debt.
MIAMI FL over Duke by 27
The Blue Devils have been a big surprise, bringing down Northwestern
and coming within a fi eld goal of sinking Navy. Now, however, is where
the Dookies wish they could transfer to the MAC for the remainder of
the season (3-55 SU on the ACC road). Miami struggled to a slim 20-15
win at Durham last year and the Canes own a less-than-intimidating
12-22 ATS record as home faves of more than 24-points when playing
a sub .500 opponent. Still, Miami’s rousing 34-17 rip job of Texas A&M
seems to have restored enough swagger to Randy Shannon’s team to
propel them to a win and cover today.
VA TECH over N Carolina by 21
Considering the Hokie defense has allowed just 5.7 points per game
in their three wins this season, we’ll look for the ‘Butch Davis Rule’ to
be in effect today: the UNC coach has covered just ONE of 20 games in
his college career when his team fails to reach the 21-point mark. With
Carolina posting a weak 10 points in last year’s loss to VT, we don’t
see them denting the scoreboard for much more today. Hokies are
8-2 ATS off a SU ‘unlined’ victory and have admirably shaken off the
demoralizing defeat at LSU. Look for Frank Beamer to better his 43-24-4
ATS record when taking conference foes behind the SU win shed.
CONNECTICUT over Akron by 13
Defense is not an issue when these two lock horns. Their previous two
meetings resulted in high-scoring thrillers, 38-37 and 38-35 decisions,
both won by Uconn. The Zips always go into the ATS tank after facing
the Golden Flashes, posting a 0-9 SU & 1-3-1 ATS record. Connecticut
moved into a 3-way tie for the Big East lead after punishing Pittsburgh
last but even with the Huskies’ 4-0 start – and coach Randy Edsall’s 18-
13-2 ATS record at Storrs – we can’t work up an appetite for this.
IOWA over Indiana by 10
Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has fashioned a 7-1 ATS record of success following
Badger battles and his 19-10 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite at
Kinnick Stadium always gets our attention. Still, Iowa’s offensive
struggles and 2-game losing skid are cause for concern. Even though
the Hawks owe Indiana for an embarrassing 28-31 loss last year, we’ll
opt for the points with the improving Hoosiers.
SOUTH CAROLINA over Mississippi St by 16
While a disgusted Steve Spurrier was breaking clipboards and fl inging
visors in Baton Rouge last Saturday, Sly Croom’s Bulldogs were
whipping Gardner-Webb to match their highest win total (3) in the
last four seasons. Now they look to score their second SEC road win of
2007 against a Gamecock club hampered by a suddenly-unsettled QB
situation. Too bad the Starkville Dawgs can’t handle success – they’re
0-5 ATS playing off three consecutive wins. South Carolina’s recent
series dominance (4-0 SU & ATS) and Spurrier’s outstanding career
record in conference play (107-32-1 SU & 86-52-2 ATS) tells us that
MSU may get cold-cocked in Columbia today.
ARMY over Temple by 6
Forget the jokes – these two also-rans have played their guts out so
far in 2007 but don’t have the talent to compete (Owls are 0-4 SU
while Army’s lone win came over Rhode Island). The Cadets have been
installed as chalk just six times since 2002 and covered only once, losing
four games outright. The series pup has fought to a 3-1 ATS edge but
risking our hard-earned dough on the lesser of two evils does not
appear in our current playbook. No interest.
OREGON over California by 6
High-fl ying Ducks have averaged 48.5 points per game compared to
41.5 for Cal and prior to last year’s 24-45 loss to Cal, the webfoots
had covered four straight in the series – as well as seven of the last
eight at Autzen Stadium. Oregon head coach Bellotti has brought
home the money following a previous SU win of more than 14 points,
notching a fi ne 12-3 ATS mark. Bears’ coach Jeff Tedford is a former
O.C. with the Ducks but he’s failed to either win or cover against his
former team in two previous trips to Eugene. Cal does own the better
defense but a recent 0-3 ATS record when taking points sends us right
back to the Duck Pond.
Florida St over Alabama by 2
FSU coach Bowden fought off the wolves as best he could before
replacing son Jeff with Jimbo Fisher as his offensive coordinator but the
return on the investment has been scant – just 16 and 18 points scored
against Colorado and Clemson. Fisher’s plan of attack might prove to
be more effective against an Alabama team taking to the road after
a pair of brutal SEC wars against Arkansas and Georgia. Both teams
are stocked with quality athletes directed by successful coaches – a
stalemate, in other words. While the SMART BOX casts a vote for the
Seminoles, the Tide is off a loss and head elephant Nick Saban is 15-7
ATS as a dog of 6 or less points in his college career. We may revisit
and unravel this this later. Until then, we’ll pass for now.
GEORGIA over Mississippi by 13
If there really is no such thing as a moral victory in football, then what
Ole Miss did last week against Florida sure fi nishes a close second. The
Rebels took the supposedly invincible Gators to the limit before losing
by 6 points, an effort that should send them into Athens with some
badly-needed confi dence. Bulldogs got a shot of that themselves by
beating The Tide in OT but now play the meat in a Alabama-Tennessee
sandwich. Mississippi likes playing between the hedges, covering four
of the past fi ve trips to Sanford Stadium, and taking on a coach like
Mark Richt who’s just 1-6 ATS at home vs. a conference opponent with
revenge. Can’t back a favorite like that.
FLORIDA over Auburn by 15
We may get after Auburn’s Tommy Tuberville on occasion but there’s
no one we’d rather have on the sideline when it comes to squaring
off against an undefeated foe. Playing from Game Four out in this
role, Tubs is a near-perfect 7-0-1 ATS, and he owns a solid 30-18 spread
record when hitting the road in what could be American’s toughest
conference. He’s also responsible for the only blemish on Florida’s 13-1
championship season of 2006, a 27-17 win at Gainesville. The problem
here is Auburn’s fi rst trip away from the plains after a rocky 4-game
home stand. We know what the Gators can do against a quality team
in the Swamp (59 points against Tennessee), so we’ll have to trust in
Tuberville and a stout Auburn defense to deliver the cash.
NAVY over Air Force by 6
After having his 3-0 unbeaten record removed without benefi t of
anesthesia by the BYU surgical staff, Air Force rookie skipper Troy
Calhoun gets his fi rst taste of a Commander-In-Chief contest. The
Flyboys have been grounded in seven of the last confrontations with
Navy and limp into Annapolis after scoring just 6 points against the
Mormons. The Middies have taken an uncharacteristic ATS dump in
2007, sinking to a 0-4 log after covering 30 of their previous 45 games.
Even so, despite injuries to the linebacking corps, Navy coach Paul
Johnson is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER (page 2) and should
right this ship soon. Our best guess is it starts here today.
BALL ST over Buffalo by 17
How bout them ‘Nads? After playing the tits off their fi rst three
opponents, they almost put the corn to mighty Nebraska last week
before dropping a 40-41 ball-buster in Lincoln. Now the question: will
they retain their spherical shape after the near-miss vs. the Huskers
or will they show up fl atter than a tortilla? Confl icting trends point
out that Ball State is on a nice 8-0 ATS run when cashing the ticket
as chalk, but home teams off a 1-point defeat as 20-point or higher
doggies have been neutered to the tune of 1-7 SU & 1-5-1 ATS. Hefty
price keeps us off the Gonads today.
C MICHIGAN over No Illinois by 1
Trying to fi nd a legitimate edge in these MAC matchups is harder than
sitting through all three ‘Lord of the Rings’ movies without being
allowed a bathroom break. The home team Chippewas can claim an
11-2 ATS record playing at Kelly/Shorts Stadium off a non-conference
game but they’ve also been barbecued in eight of their last nine
confrontations with NIU. Despite the Huskies’ SU dog win over Idaho
on Saturday (Vandals won stats, 586-344), they’re still riddled with
injuries to key personnel. CMU revenge from last year’s 10-31 beating
ensures our apathy.
Michigan over NORTHWESTERN by 10
NU coach Pat Fitzgerald now knows how George Armstrong Custer
felt at Little Big Horn after the Wildcats were mercilessly massacred by
Ohio State, 58-7. The fl oodgates opened early and before they could
blink they were down 28-0. Such Buckeye beatings are more the rule
than the exception so look for Northwestern to regroup in time to take
on Michigan. The Purple Cats hold their own when getting points at
Evanston, going 12-6 ATS lately and Wolverines' coach Lloyd Carr is a
money-burning 6-14-1 vs. the number when installed as away chalk
following a SUATS win. Bottom line is we can’t trust Michigan laying
points in its fi rst trip away from Ann Arbor, not off last week’s satisfying
home puppy win over Joe Pa. If Wildcat RB Tyrell Sutton decides to
suit up it would be no surprise to see the Purple Reign.
MIAMI OH over Syracuse by 1
Forget about Appalachian State – the Orange drubbing of Louisville
last week qualifi es as the season’s biggest upset so far. Syracuse now
looks to win back-to-back road wins for the fi rst time ever under
Greg Robinson and might be able to pull it off against a Miami Ohio
squad ravaged by injuries. Still, teams coming off a SU win as a 20 or
more point underdog are just 6-19-2 ATS when lining up against a
non-league foe. The huge win over the Cardinals can’t mask the fact
that the ‘Cuse is still a work in progress, outstatted by an average of
over 230 yards per game! Like the RedHawks have been doing lately,
we’ll likely phone in sick to work today.
UTAH over Utah St by 22
Will the REAL Utah team stand up? Two weeks ago, they eviscerated
UCLA, 44-6, as 15-point home dogs but last Saturday the Utes were
unceremoniously skunked at UNLV in a 0-27 stink job. And, to make
matters even more confounding, star QB Brian Johnson returned to
duty last week! When confused, we turn to history – which tells us
the visiting Aggies have failed to cover in fi ve straight meetings and
almost never win a game outright (1-14 SU L15). However, this will
be Utah’s homecoming game and home favorites in that role have
burned money at an alarming rate in recent years. We know they have
the better athletes but the Utes will have to ditch the Jekyll-and-Hyde
act and heal some bodies before we come any closer.
3 BEST BET
Rebels snapped a 0-12 road-losing skein under Mike Sanford
when they won SU at Utah State in this year’s season opener.
They also gave Wisconsin fi ts in a 13-20 loss and ambushed Utah
for a huge win last week. Too bad, then, that UNLV has to run
smack into the very best our SMART BOX has to offer: Game Four
bowlers (Nevada) playing with rest off a SU win are an impressive
18-5-1 ATS. The Rebels also fail miserably when losing SU as dogs,
covering just 10 of their last 38 chances. We know the Reno wolves
have been favored only once in the last seven meetings – but
that was a convincing 31-3 rout last year. We’ll put our trust in
the sagacious square.0
NEVADA over Unlv by 14
SMU over Texas El Paso by 3
What’s gotten into these Ponies? Outstatted by over 160 yards in
each of their fi rst three games this year, SMU turned the tables on the
Horned Frogs, outgaining the Toadies by a 352-260 margin. They still
lost outright, 7-21, but allowed just one offensive TD against TCU. UTEP
hasn’t fared much better in the weekly stats battles, getting whipped
by 130 yards per game, so there’s not much on either side to hang our
hats on. The Miners’ lowly 2-9 ATS streak as conference road pups pulls
us toward the corral but after noting that SMU’s cover against TCU
was their fi rst of the season, we think we’ll visit this later.
Hawaii over IDAHO by 28
The betting public put a lot of faith in Idaho last week, moving their
game with NIU from pick to Idaho –3, then had their pockets picked
when the Huskies won outright, 42-35. There’ll be no such monkey
business this week as Hawaii brings one of college football’s ‘top fuel’
offenses to Moscow. The Warriors whipped the Vandals by a mere
58 points last year and have outscored the Potato Heads by 144-31
in the last three games. Idaho’s recent 0-4 ATS failure playing with
conference revenge adds new luster to Hawaii’s sterling 15-4-1 ATS
record when winning as road chalk. Do you prefer your taters mashed,
whipped or roasted?
Lsu over TULANE by 40
Sensitive viewers who still fi nd it diffi cult to look at the troubling
images of post-Katrina New Orleans had better stay the hell away
from this telecast. Tulane got gashed for 38 points by Mississippi State
to open the season so one can only imagine how much carnage will
be wrought by the LSU attack. The Green Wave can’t turn to the stats
for help: they’re just 1-10 vs. the number in the dome against the SEC,
3-7 ATS with non-league revenge and 3-7 ATS taking the points in the
last of three straight home games. Bayou Bengals are on an 11-1 ATS
ride after playing three in a row at Death Valley. Miles has the look
of a cripple-shooter and with Oklahoma and Florida closing in on his
#2 ranking, the LSU coach may pour it on against his weak cross-town
foes (without even trying).
TCU over Colorado St by 10
It’s becoming painfully apparent that this year’s TCU team is not in the
same league as recent Frog editions that made 11-win seasons a habit.
Despite a 21-7 win over SMU, the Horned Ones were easily outyarded
again as Gary Patterson’s offense simply could not fi nd a rhythm. All
is not well in Fort Collins, either, as Colorado State blew another game
to extend its record of misery to 0-3. The Rams held a 24-10 lead over
Houston before being outscored 28-3, a recurring theme that could cost
veteran coach Sonny Lubick his job. But Sonny’s got some ammunition
for this encounter: last year’s 14-45 home loss was the worst of his career
vs. a MWC foe. Lubick’s 14-5-1 ATS mark as an avenging dog can’t be
ignored against a team that’s still struggling to fi nd an identity. At 0-3,
CSU doesn’t care about an identity – they just want a win.
VANDERBILT over E Michigan by 24
Eastern Michigan brings some of the worst numbers ever seen to
Nashville: how about 0-18 SU & 3-15 ATS when carrying the luggage
to lined games against non-MAC opposition, including 0-7 off a SU
win? That win, by the way, was a 38-15 victory over Howard where the
EMU’s were outgained by over 100 yards! Besides owning a strong 27-9
ATS record when winning SU as a favorite (9-0 off a SUATS win), the
Commies also receive the highest recommendation from this week’s
SMART BOX. We’re smart enough to follow good advice so we’ll hope
Vandy plays dandy in this matchup.
TOLEDO over W Michigan by 1
The MAC isn’t exactly setting the gridrion world on fi re lately and with
identical 1-3 records, these two represent the dregs of the conference.
The fi zzling Rockets fi nally got off the schneid by edging Iowa State
while the Broncos actually got to trample 1-AA Central Connecticut
State. Even though Western beat Toledo SU as a double-digit home dog
last year, the Rockets had won and covered the previous four meetings.
Toledo’s Tom Amstutz pays the bills when playing with revenge in the
Glass Bowl, going 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS, and we think Saturday’s big win
might fi nally get these Rockets off the ground.
OREGON ST over Ucla by 1
Bruins emptied a lot of wallet’s last week after the announcement of
QB Ben Olson’s absence due to headaches sent bettors scurrying to
the Washington window. Still smarting from their inexplicable loss
at Utah, UCLA coach Karl Dorrell and replacement QB Pat Cowan
unleashed a 42-point barrage on the stunned Huskies. Oregon State
continues to lose games while winning the stat battle: they’re now
2-2 SU after outgaining Arizona State 514-396 last week in a 12-point
loss. The Beavers seldom fi nd a way to win in this series, managing
only four victories in the previous 20 games. Bruins have also covered
the last four on this fi eld and now that they appear to be refocused,
we’ll fade the favored Beavers in a tight one.
Penn St over ILLINOIS by 7
Off a frustrating loss at Michigan, Joe Pa’s Lions bring a wealth of
pointspread treasure to this game. Penn State is 4-0 ATS at Champaign,
5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS after playing the Wolverines and 4-0 ATS off the fi rst
loss of the season. The Illini counter with a 5-0 ATS mark as avenging
BIG 10 dogs. That’s where it ends, however, as the biggest difference
today is this becomes a ‘step-up’ game for the re-invigorated Illini.
Aside from a mediocre 12-20 ATS log as conference home dogs of late,
they have been dogs of 15 or more points in each of the last three
meetings in this series. We feel a fi eld goal won’t be enough today.
WISCONSIN over Michigan St by 10
Michigan State duplicated Wisconsin’s 4-0 start with a 17-point decision
over winless Notre Dame but we’re not exactly sure we’re sold on the
Spartans just yet. For one thing, they’ve failed to cash in seven straight
when made a conference dog of 7 or less points. They also dip to a 1-5
ATS mark when playing the second of consecutive road games. When
Wisky keeps the home fi res burning for two straight weeks, they’ve
compiled a wallet-warming 6-1 ATS record… in addition to their 6-1
spread mark in Game Five. Sparty may wind up missing some fabric
after walking into the Badger den today.
NEBRASKA over Iowa St by 24
If all we had to go on here was Nebraska’s incredibly poor showing
against Ball State last week, we’d give the Cyclones a serious look. But
after being introduced to the Huskers’ dominating series numbers – 8-2
ATS L10 & 7-0 ATS L7 at Lincoln – we took a longer look at Iowa State’s
dreadful 1-12 ATS account as a BIG 12 dog of 17 or more points and
decided to forget all about Nebraska’s close call. The corn peeled at
Memorial Stadium today will probably belong to Iowa State.
TEXAS over Kansas St by 16
The Longhorns’ Mack Brown is probably still fuming over last year’s
42-45 loss (as 16-point chalk) to Kansas State and then-rookie head
coach Ron Prince. Brown can claim a profi table 20-11-1 ATS mark in
Austin when playing to get even but he’s nonetheless failed in four
of his last fi ve attempts in that role against a BIG 12 adversary. The
Wildcats, however, have covered just six of their last 31 SU losses
when taking points off a SU win (0-6 L6). The wrench in the works
just happens to be the Mother Of All Lookaheads – a date with archenemy
Oklahoma in two weeks – and that very formidable tool could
convince us to stay away from today’s game.
4 BEST BET
Aggies were starting to buy the media hype surrounding their 3-0
start until A&M’s highly-touted offensive backfi eld got undressed
by Miami Florida on national TV. They are now 1-3 ITS (In The Stats)
this season and now dress up as two-touchdown favorites. We
don’t think so. For openers, we’re not big fans of A&M head coach
Dennis Franchione, particularly off a SU loss where he weighs in
with a mediocre 33-37-1 SU & 32-31-1 ATS record. Baylor is actually
showing signs of improvement under Guy Morriss. In a matchup
of a pair of 3-1 teams, we’ll back the one with the better stats as
we call the monumental upset here today.
Baylor over TEXAS A&M by 3
OHIO U over Kent St by 1
Both teams snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week and a
search of the ATS archives does little to inspire confi dence in either side.
The Golden Flashes have won and covered three straight against the
Bobbies but after rumbling with neighborhood rival Akron, Kent has
won just one of 11 games SU. When we see that Ohio has dumped in
six of its previous seven MAC openers, we realize we’re dealing with
a genuine conundrum. It can’t be solved, so leave it alone.
Oklahoma over COLORADO by 21
No doubt that Colorado is showing improvement but they still have
problems scoring against good defenses – and they’re getting ready
to face the best they’ll see all season. The Sooners look as quick and
physical as any of OU’s recent teams and they’re aching for one more
crack at a BCS title under Stoops. If they stay focused here and get by
Texas next week, that goal may become a reality. Colorado is a dreadful
8-34-1 ATS when they get torched for 28 or points at Boulder, a virtual
certainty here, and the Buffs have dropped fi ve straight as conference
revenge underdogs. Still, this price looks mighty steep to us.
VIRGINIA over Pittsburgh by 7
Panthers are surrounded by a pile of ugly numbers here: 1-11 SU &
3-9 ATS when taking on a .600 or greater foe – and it doesn’t help
that Pitt has struggled to a 3-10-1 ATS record against the ACC. Virginia
has shaken off its opening-season debacle against Wyoming to polish
off a trio of conference foes and jump to the top of the ACC Coastal
Division. If all this sounds like we’re leaning to UVA, forget about
it. The Wahoos’ have left the bacon at the store when favored off a
SU dog win, going just 2-8 vs. the number… a stat that will have us
putting the lid back on this one.
HOUSTON over E Carolina by 13
Since being victimized by the Quack Attack, Houston has rebounded to
put the smackdown on consecutive foes. They’ve won all three games
in the stats, averaging 483 yards per outing, and outscored Colorado
State 35-10 in the second half to bag a win and cover. Skip Holtz and
his Pirates have sailed into some mighty rough waters lately, opening
the season at 1-3 ATS after going 18-6 the previous two years. Even
though the series visitor is 5-1 ATS lately, we’re not interested in fading
the Cougs here… especially with a team that’s pretty banged up.
TULSA over Uab by 20
The Golden Hurricane looked like they were going to stir up some
trouble this season after scoring 90 points in a 2-0 start. Then that
‘other’ team from Oklahoma paid a visit and Tulsa coach Todd Graham
got a 21-62 shot of reality. The Blazers snapped an ugly 8-game losing
skid by beating Alcorn State 22-0 two weeks ago. Let’s hope they got
their rest because senior QB Paul Smith and the Tulsa skill players will
run them ragged for the entire game. That pesky post-OU syndrome
may keep us on the sidelines, however.
Louisville over NC STATE by 14
Cardinal D. C. Mike Cassity must feel lonelier than the Maytag
repairman after his defense got shattered for 69 points in back-to-back
embarrassments. He’s not the only dog in the house, however, as NC
State’s Mike Archer is trying to explain how his stop unit coughed up
42 points in a tough loss to Clemson. We don’t have to look far to
settle on a side since Louisville has won 9 straight road games when
playing off a SU loss. Couple the Cards’ 16-1 regular season spread
streak against the ACC with our INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3) and this
one could get ugly. Louie gets back on track today.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET UPSET UPSET
GA TECH over Clemson by 7
Recent back-to-back losses (both as chalk) have left us somewhat
puzzled about the Yellow Jackets. They began the season looking
like the team to beat in the ACC. Instead, today they're in quest
of their fi rst conference victory in 2007. Despite their recent
struggles, the strength of the team – its rush defense – remains
intact (2.0 DYPR). Playing with revenge from his only ACC loss
last season, look for Chan Gailey to improve to 8-1 ATS in games
off back-to-back defeats here today.
5 BEST BET
Life couldn’t be better than it is now for head boss Greg Schiano.
Today he fi nds his team playing in the 4th of a fi ve-game season
opening homestand, with rest, off a 59-0 shutout win. He’ll host
a downtrodden Maryland squad that last week squandered a
21-point lead at Wake Forest, surrendering 28 unanswered points
in an overtime loss. To make matters worse, the Terps are now
riding a deplorable 2-14 ITS (In The Stats) skein since last season.
The icing on the cake is Maryland mentor Ralph Friedgen’s 4-20
ATS mark in games he loses and Schiano’s 14-3 ATS log in home
wins. Lay the points and have a good Knight.
RUTGERS over Maryland by 25
Ohio St over MINNESOTA by 24
After four games each, Ohio State’s defense currently allows 7.2 points
and 178 yards per game while Minnesota’s defense allows 38.5 points
and 543 yards per game. If you do the math, you’d probably play the
road team without even knowing that the Buckeyes have battered
the pointspread in six straight trips to the Metrodome. Jim Tressel is
5-1 ATS away from Columbus against a conference opponent with
revenge and he’s watched his team solidly improve during the past
two weeks. Edge to the Buckeyes.
Usc over WASHINGTON by 21
Washington has covered four straight when playing an unbeaten
opponent in Game Four out but in Southern Cal’s favor, we note that
Game Four 3-0 road favorites are a superb 96-63-2 ATS – that’s 60%
on the blind. We won’t fade that, or the Trojans.
PURDUE over Notre Dame by 27
Here’s how far Notre Dame has slipped: last year in this game, the
Irish were favored by 14.5 points over the Boilermakers! Boiler QB
Curtis Painter has really elevated his game and Tiller’s clever offensive
schemes are springing receivers for big plays. Like Sonny and Cher
sang, “the beat goes on…â€
Byu over NEW MEXICO by 3
Though currently 3-1 SU, New Mexico has not been severely tested but
they’ll see the real deal here when the Mormons come to Albuquerque
in a visitor-dominated series (5-0 ATS). Nonetheless, we’ll grab the
points with a Lobo squad that appears to have awakened after earlier
stubbing its toe at UTEP.
ARIZONA over Wash St by 1
Desert Cats may have cashed in their last four confrontations with WSU
but they’re a putrid 7-26-1 ATS as home favorites of 21 or less points.
Washington State defi nitely fi ts the revenge angle, losing 16-26 as
double-digit home chalk in ’06, but we’ll likely leave this one alone.
Arizona St over STANFORD by 17
The Cardinal allowed 34 unanswered points (after leading 31-21) in a
31-55 loss to Oregon last week! New ASU coach Dennis Erickson should
add to his 38-11-1 ATS streak over a conference foe.
TROY over La Monroe by 10
The red-shouldered Warhawks have been drowning in a sea of red
ink this year as they’ve allowed over 500 yards in all three games. Troy
has dropped three straight ATS in the series but the Trojans appear to
be a team on the rise. The bottom line here, though, is it’s never safe
laying double-digits with a team that allows 300 rushing yards per
game into a foe that gains 233 yards a game on the ground.
FRESNO ST over La Tech by 18
The Bulldogs are actually 0-3 in the stats this season with every loss
by at least 125 yards. As we so often do when we fi nd ourselves
confounded, we visit the SMART BOX and learn that the Bulldogs
from California, not Louisiana, are the pick of this litter.
Cincinnati over SAN DIEGO ST by 12
Nice start for the Bearcats, but his could be troublesome. Game Five
undefeated road favorites are 13-20 ATS taking on non-conference
opponents, a number that tightens to 3-15 ATS if the foe is off a SU
win. The Aztecs allow a ridiculous 517 yards per game. No thanks.
C FLORIDA over La Lafayette by 20
UCF buried the Tigers with 601 yards of offense as they rolled to a 56-
20 laugher (led 49-0 before Memphis scored). Despite a disappointing
17-point loss to Troy, the Ragin’ Cajuns rushed for a whopping 345
yards and are averaging 275 rush yards per game in 2007. We’ll ride
the Cajuns' ground attack one here for more week.
MID TENN ST over Florida Int’l by 10
FIU has been outscored by an average of 35 points and outgained by
267 yards per game under new head coach Mario Cristobal. Still, we
don’t relish the idea of backing a favorite that’s just 3-9-1 ATS when
laying 13 or more points. Take it or leave it.
KENTUCKY over Fla Atlantic by 17
Game Five 4-0 home favorites are a pathetic 4-14-1 ATS and with South
Carolina waiting around the bend for UK, the Cats could be stuck in a
fl at spot. FAU is off to its best start since 2004 as 19 returning starters
have the Owls roosting at 3-1.
ARKANSAS over North Texas by 35
Bad numbers abound for both sides but the bottom line is we just
don’t want any part of a broken-hearted Razorback squad that’s seen
consecutive victories dissolve into bitter losses.
--Embarrassed Memphis trailed 49-0 early in 3rd Q at UCF last week. And toothless Tigers own 1 SU win in last 13 vs. TGS-rated foes. ASU calloused by trips to Texas & Tennessee, plus Indians have more balance on offense & more moxie on defense than UM.