Head Scratcher Lines
Guys I am going to start a thread every week on some lines that stand out to me as a little off. These will be the lines that look funny to me. Please feel free to contribute in any way.
Head Scratcher 1
Washington at UCLA
opened at UCLA 5 now at 6 to 6.5
OK yes Washington got exposed last week by Ohio State. Uhhh I think UCLA got exposed as well by UTAH???? Maybe neither team is as good as we thought. Maybe so. But the opening line had me scratching and then it goes up a point and half in some places?
Head Scratcher 2
Kentucky at Arkansas
Opened at 7 still at 7
73% of public is on Arkansas
I am fully aware of the system when an unranked team is giving a ranked team points play the unranked team especially at home (it usually is). But this may be too many points to give a solid Kentucky team. Is Kentucky's rush defense this bad to be a touchdown underdog or is this a let down factor after cracking the top 25. Still this may be too many points. The one thing that I was impressed with from the Razorbacks was the coaching and the adjustment that was made to go to a zone against Bama which basically shut them down the rest of the game after the 1st quarter.
Head Scratcher 3
Penn State at Michigan
Total Opened at 47.5 now at 46.5
Michigan has not stopped anybody on Defense that is not fully capable of stopping themselves ie. Notre Dame. Morelli seems to be more comfortable in the offense Joe Pa has him running and the Lions have not had a problem putting points up. The Lions did shut out Fla Int. and held ND to 10, big whoop! They also allowed 24 to Buffalo ( maybe a little let down). Now the kicker, the public is 84% on the under????? Public do not bet unders???
Any insight on these games is much appreciated. I love betting on these types of games because I think the line moves and public % tell a lot of the story. I will continue to track these lines and % up to kickoff.
I hope this thread helps out some people on here and would really like some of the guys that have been here a while to help with some insight if they have time.
I am bigD in here and Eubybobcat in chat.
My leans as of now are
UCLA -6.5
Kentucky +7
Over 46.5 Penn State and Michigan
posted by bigd
8 replies
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0 likes
I'm scratching my head as well!
Seattle -3.5
Dallas +3
These look to obvious!!
Give me your opinions!!!
Frost-O-Matic
posted by frosty
Sept. 21 2007 2:25am -
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Frosty thanks for posting the NFL. I had not even looked at those yet.
In the CINCY game, I can understand this line being what it is based on Cincy's Defense. Their offense is great no doubt, but if you can't outscore Cleveland to win a game you sure as hell aren't going to outscore the Hawks.
Now the Cowboys line is a head scratcher, but which Romo will show up against a tough Defense. He has been Jeckel and Hyde in his young career. Tough game, and one in which I will be at viewing down from the Luxury Sky Box!!! Go Cowboys!!!
Both of these games could really go either way IMO.
Cincy game = which Defense shows up
Dallas game = which Romo shows up
posted by bigd
Sept. 21 2007 7:10pm -
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With Olsen Out for this game I will no longer be looking at this game.
Kentucky still holding at 7 and the Michigan total is 46 now.
Public %'s are
79 percent on Arkansas
52 percent on the Over in Michigan Game
posted by bigd
Sept. 21 2007 11:14pm -
0 likes
Michigan -17
Cal +5
Michigan St. +7.5
Colorado +22.5
Clemson -3
Ohio St. -24
Feedback???!!!
posted by frosty
Sept. 25 2007 3:31pm -
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Frosty,
I do not look at all the games out there, just takes too much time. But I do have an opinion on a couple you are looking at.
Michigan -17
Man I know Nwestern sux, but I will not bet on/against Michigan at all this season. A team that is up and down like they are, or seem like they will be is not a team I can put money on. You might have a better bead on this team than me and I would love to hear your input.
CAL +5
Oregon is a tough place to play and this Oregon team is for real. They had a game last week that could have been a let down, but they were impressive. Oregon WILL BEAT USC OUTRIGHT THIS YEAR. Since I think that.... I also believe that they know they must beat Cal and then they are the ones with a shot at the national title if they run the table. Oregon wins and covers this game IMO.
Col +22.5
I think Colorado can cover this game as crazy as that sounds. The line was set a little to low and anything above 21 is a good play. The blowout last week of Miami Ohio might have been the reason, I don't know??? The only thing that worries me in this game and the reason I won't play it.... Bob Stoops is about as good of coach as there is in CFL. His teams always play 4 quarters hard. With that said The Buffs have a good shot at covering this number. The Buffs Defense is quality... is this Sam Bradford's first bad game on the road in the Big 12???? Might be.
Clemson my thoughts are in Head Scratcher's 2
No other opinions on the other games.
What are your thoughts on those games???
posted by bigd
Sept. 26 2007 1:06am -
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BigD- Good Points on all. I like your reasoning, but here's what I was thinking:
Michigan -17: I think they've turned the corner. Lloyd Carr is fighting for his job and pretty much needs to win the big ten title. Northwestern is terrible. Plain and simple, and I think Mike Hart will run all over them. I also think that Mallett is for real.
Cal +5: Cal has too many weapons and more than likely will pound the ball with their running back (forgot his name- but he's a bad ass) to set up the play action pass. Autzen stadium is a tough place to play, and Oregon is playing well, but I don't think they are for real. Cal wins this outright.
Col +22.5: Your write up is on the money. I think it's just too many points for a home dog in a rivalry with the dog having their best season in years with a new attitude. I think the Buff's keep it within 14-17 pts.
Clemson -2.5: I read your write up- you may be right- I'll have to take a closer look! Georgia Tech needs a victory bad!
What do you think about Michigan St. getting more than a touchdown to a Wisconsin team that's looked suspect at times this year?
posted by frosty
Sept. 26 2007 11:39am -
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You might be right on on Michigan. They should kill them no doubt. Just hate putting money on a team like them.
We may have to agree to disagree on Cal and Oregon. I am big on the Ducks this year and like them on Saturday.
Colorado- remember one other key point. Next week is Texas OU, will OU be looking ahead? My thoughts are no, but if there was ever a week they will it is this week. This play is looking better to me everyday. Thanks for you input.
Mich St. - man I really do have much of an opinion on this game. I could rattle off some meaningless shit about the matchup but I don't want to cloud your mind on your pick. I do know this for a fact, Tressel said Mich St. is a dark horse in the Big Ten and are a very good football team. When he was asked who to look out for in the Big Ten, he said Mich St.
Thanks for all your input and conversation about the games. GL on Sat.
posted by bigd
Sept. 27 2007 6:37am -
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BigD- beware the fact that I'm a Spartan grad and know that there is a little bias in my opinion, but I do tell it straight from a betting standpoint! I think Wisconsin is prime for a outright loss to a Michigan State team that finally has the right coach in place with a lot of momentum on their sides- I don't see another meltdown as has happened the last few years! Sparty has a two headed monster running back combo that will challenge the Badgers defense- and our coach will stick with the plan on running the ball. We have a legit star in the making again at wide receiver- Devin Thomas- that could be the difference maker in this clash though! He's explosive! So, Go Spartans!
I'm still sticking to my original thoughts on CAL/Oregon which the public is all over Oregon with the line going from 4.5 on Monday to 6 today! I like CAL to win outright. My prediction: CAL 48-45.
Good Points on Michigan and Col/Okl. We will see if Michigan has a let down or not. I think that game could show how good/bad Penn St. really is. Although, the Nittany Lions did shoot themselves in the foot several times last weekend vs. Michigan. They should've won! So, I will probably lay off that game!
I don't think Stoops will let his team look past the Buffs with Texas the next week, but you know they are kids and I'm sure that it's gotta be in the back of their heads. I'm sticking with the Buffs +22. I see them losing by 10-17.
Good Luck! Let me know if you like anything else!
Frosty
posted by frosty
Sept. 27 2007 3:14pm