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DR BOB for Sunday
One Best Bet and 6 Strong Opinions.
Cincinnati (+3) 3-Star at +3 1/2, 2-Stars at +3.
Strong Opinions
Houston (+6)
Buffalo - New England UNDER (42)
Tampa Bay (-3 1/2)
Chicago (-3)
Dallas - Chicago UNDER (41 1/2)
Tennessee (+3 1/2)
3 Star Selection
***Cincinnati 26 SEATTLE (-3.5) 22
01:05 PM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
There aren’t too many people that are eager to jump on Cincinnati after they allowed an astounding 51 points at Cleveland last week. However, this is the perfect time to play the Bengals as the defense will no doubt be motivated by that embarrassing performance. Cincinnati applies to a very good 49-12-1 ATS bounce-back situation this week and that angle is 12-0 ATS if the team allowed 40 points or more in their previous game. The Bengals also apply to a solid 100-38-6 ATS situation that is based on their upset loss. Cincinnati’s offense certainly looks fine, as they did score 45 points in last week’s loss, and Seattle is a below average team that is having their own defensive issues after allowing 6.8 yards per play to Arizona last week. My ratings favor Seattle by 3 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points (-1.20 odds or better) or at +3 (+1.05 odds or better) and I’ll make the Bengals a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 (-1.10 to +1.05 odds) or at +3 ½ (-1.21 to -1.35 odds)
Strong Opinion
HOUSTON 23 Indianapolis (-6.0) 24
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Colts are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite after barely getting past the Titans last week and I look for that trend to continue. Houston is 2-0 with convincing wins over Kansas City and at Carolina last week and the Texans appear to be the real deal. It was assumed that quarterback Matt Schaub would upgrade a Houston offense with good talent at receiver and Schaub has not disappointed while averaging a robust 8.3 yards per pass play. Schaub is not going to maintain that blistering pace, but he is clearly a better than average quarterback. The problem for Schaub this week is the absence of star receiver Andre Johnson, who is about with a sprained knee. Johnson has averaged an incredible 13.1 yards per pass thrown to him this season and the rest of Schaub’s passes have averaged just 6.3 ypa (7.1 ypa to the other wideouts). What makes the Texans a better than average team is an improved defense that struggled with a young and inexperienced lineup last season. Those young players have blossomed and Houston has yielded just 3.9 ypr and 5.0 yards per pass play in two games. Last year’s #1 overall draft pick DE Mario Williams and rookie 1st round pick DT Amobi Okoye each have 2 sacks to their credit and there is star talent at linebacker (DeMeco Ryans) and in the secondary (CB Dunta Robinson). Peyton Manning leads another very good Colts’ offense and the defense has played well but my ratings would have only favored Indianapolis by 4 points with Johnson playing. Replacing Johnson’s great numbers with the average of the rest of the receiving corps makes a difference of 3 points, so I now favor Indy by 7 points. The reason for siding with Houston is a solid 66-24-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation and the Colts’ recent history as a road favorite. Houston, meanwhile, is 3-0 straight up in their last 3 games as a home underdog, including a 27-24 win over the Colts in week 16 last year, so they should have the confidence to win this game. I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d make Houston a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 26 St. Louis 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Buccaneers bounced back from their opening day loss to Seattle with a resounding win over the Saints and I expect Tampa to win again this week over a struggling Rams team that has lost consecutive games as favorites to start the season. Teams that lose consecutive games as a favorite are only 42% ATS in their next game (since 1980) and St. Louis applies to a 43-86-2 ATS subset of that situation. I certainly don’t mind fading a Rams team with a banged up offensive line and my ratings favor Tampa Bay by 6 ½ points. The situation isn’t strong enough to make Tampa a Best Bet at -3 ½ points, but I’ll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at -4 or less and I’d make the Bucs a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (at -1.15 odds or better)
Strong Opinion
CHICAGO (-3.0) 21 Dallas 14
05:15 PM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Cowboys have scored 82 points in two games, but it’s tough to maintain such a high level of performance in the NFL and teams that score 31 points or more in consecutive weeks are just 67-104-7 ATS the next week if they’re on the road. Dallas applies to a 2- 20-4 ATS subset of that situation and Chicago is certainly the team that can put an end to an offensive hot streak. The Bears have allowed just 4.0 yppl in their first two games and Dallas was held to just 5.3 yppl by Miami last week and only scored 37 points due to being +5 in turnover margin. Chicago’s offense has been horrible so far, averaging just 3.6 yppl, but quarterback Rex Grossman has a habit of following a bad game with a good game and I certainly don’t expect him to average 3.6 yards per pass play all season long (his career average is 5.9 yppp). Dallas has been below average defensively so far, allowing 6.0 yppl to the Giants and Dolphins, so the Bears certainly have a chance of breaking out of their offensive slump. My ratings only favor Chicago by ½ a point, but the situation against Dallas is strong enough for me to side with the Bears and this game also applies to a 55-17-2 UNDER angle. My ratings project 43 total points and the total opened at 43 points and has come down. I’m not going to give up the line value to make the UNDER a Best Bet, but I will consider UNDER 41 points or higher a Strong Opinion (2-Star Best Bet at 43 points or higher) and I will also consider Chicago a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Tennessee 24 NEW ORLEANS (-4.5) 23
05:30 PM Pacific, 24-Sep-07
The Saints have looked horrible so far this season, getting blown out by an average score of 12-36 by the Colts and Buccaneers. New Orleans isn’t as bad as they’ve shown the first two weeks, but a defense that’s allowed 11.5 yards per pass play is certainly a problem. Vince Young has not shown that he can beat a team through the air consistently, but he should have success when he needs to throw the ball in this game. The Titans are averaging 213 yards at 5.2 ypr, so they may not take full advantage of the Saints generous secondary. The most puzzling part of the Saints’ failure has been the play of Drew Brees, who was great last season and very good in the preseason but has averaged just 4.7 yards per pass play in the first 2 games. I expect Brees to return to being a good quarterback and my ratings do favor the Saints by 3 ½ points in this game, but Tennessee applies to a solid 52-20-2 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Titans have covered 9 consecutive times as an underdog, including a win over Jacksonville and a 2 point loss to the Colts last week. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more and I’d take Tennessee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) 26 Buffalo 10
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Bills are struggling on both sides of the ball, as they’ve averaged just 3.7 yards per play while allowing 6.6 yppl in games against Denver and Pittsburgh. New England, meanwhile, has out-gained the Jets and Chargers by an average of 6.5 yppl to 3.7 yppl. This certainly looks like a blowout, but the Patriots could suffer a bit of a letdown after last week’s nationally televised romp over San Diego. My ratings favor New England by 16 points, so the line is pretty fair. This game applies to a very good 55-17-2 UNDER angle but my ratings forecast a total of 44 points and the negative line value is taking away some of the value of the situation. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 41 points or higher and I’d make the UNDER a 2-Star Best Bet at 44 points or higher.
posted by phantom
Sept. 20 2007 3:07pm -
0 likes
rob ferringo
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NFL SELECTIONS
5.5-Unit Play. Take #397 Indianapolis (-6) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
Note: This is our Gridiron Game of the Week.
No Andre Johnson means no chance for the Texans. Houston’s value will never be greater - thanks to a pair of blowouts over shaky opponents - but the Colts are still the class of the division. Indianapolis is 10-3 ATS as a September road favorite and 9-1 ATS as a road favorite with revenge. We’re below a key betting number and with 60 percent of Houston’s pass offense on the sideline with a sprained knee I think the Texans will be outmanned. Houston’s weakness is its safeties and I think Manning and Co. will take advantage en route to a statement victory. Indy is 13-3-1 ATS when they win SU on the road dating back to 2004, and 23-5-2 ATS dating back to 2002 (14-5-2 ATS as a favorite).
3-Unit Play. Take #399 San Diego (-5.5) over Green Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
I think it’s time for the Chargers to put up or shut up. They have faced two of the best five or six teams in the league (Chicago, New England) this year and now they get a crack at a Green Bay that, while it is up-and-coming, has less talent. Green Bay has been very inefficient on offense and defense and they are 3-9-2 ATS at home. San Diego is 16-7-2 ATS on the road. Further, the Packers are 1-7 ATS at home against the AFC recently and 2-9-1 ATS against the AFC since 2004. Green Bay is also 1-8 ATS as a home dog over the past five years. The Packers have a ton of injured players, including five defensive starters. Brett Favre has struggled against teams in the 3-4 and I think that the Chargers defense is able to hold down the Pack en route to a 17-3 win.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 35.5 Jacksonville at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
There is a very solid totals system at work there that has at 61.1 percent over the last 11 years and 71.2 percent in the last four seasons. Beyond that, the Jaguars are 11-1 against the total on the road with a total at 35.5 or less. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in the last meeting (4-0 in Denver) between these clubs and is 8-2 after back-to-back ATS losses by the Broncos. Both teams are in the top half of the league in terms of yards per play, and Denver is No. 1 in total offense. In terms of what’s the least likely thing people are expecting to happen in Week 3 I think that a shootout between the Jags and Broncos is near the top of the list. That’s why I like the play.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 43.0 San Diego at Green Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
The Chargers offense has struggled this year mainly because A) they’ve faced two of the best defenses in the league and B) they don’t have any receivers. It’s not going to get any easier on either count this weekend. Each team has seen an average of just 34.5 and 38.5 points, respectively, in their first two games. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Green Bay’s last five home games, 8-2 following an ATS win by the Pack, and 10-4 in San Diego’s last 14 games against a team with a winning record.
2-Unit Play. Take #402 Kansas City (-2.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
I really liked the way that the Chiefs looked in the second half against Chicago last week and I think they are excited about playing at home, where they are 11-3 ATS. The Chiefs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and are facing a Vikings team that is 7-15 ATS on grass. Minnesota has three guys taking snaps at QB with the No. 1 offense this week and no one is batting an eye; to me that’s a serious problem. Jared Allen is back to give the K.C. defense a lift and I think that they can muster just enough offense to squeeze out a low-scoring victory.
1-Unit Play. Take #426 Chicago (-3) over Dallas (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
This was one of those games I circled when the schedule was released, believing that the Bears would devastate the Cowboys on national TV. Dallas has beaten up on two pathetic opponents, but they’ll face a much stiffer task from the Bears defense. Chicago has gone 3-1 ATS against Dallas at home and is 17-9-1 ATS against the NFC over the past two seasons. Dallas is 8-20-3 after a win by 14 or more points (3-14 away), 0-10 on the road off a DD win against an opponent off a DD win, and 2-9 off a DD ATS win in September. The Cowboys are in a spot to be faded after two blowout wins and I think their weaknesses play into Chicago’s strength. Of course, all of this is predicated on Rex not melting down – again.
That's it for this week. Good luck.
posted by phantom
Sept. 20 2007 7:57pm -
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Larry Ness' NFL Week Three 24* Play (1st of the '07 FB season!)
Larry's established himself as one of the most recognizable, respected and successful handicappers in the industry. The current FB season is his 24th and a 24* play not only represents his years in the business but is also the highest star rating he assigns any game. "Be there" for Larry's first 24* of the '07 NFL season!
My 24* play is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.
There are a number of phony 2-0 NFL teams but the Vikings are a phony 1-1 team! In Week 1 vs the Falcons, despite not running a SINGLE play in the red zone, Minnesota beat Atlanta, 24-3. The Vikings returned two interceptions for TDs plus saw Adrian Peterson take a "dump off" 60 yards for a TD. Some had Peterson ready for Canton after his Week 1 performance (19-103 YR / 60-yd TD catch)) but he followed up that effort with just 66 yards (3.3 per) vs the Lions last week. QB Tarvaris Jackson had FOUR interceptions vs the Lions before he was hurt and it looks as if Kelly Holcomb will get the start here. Minnesota fans seem to love the idea but one wonders if they know the 34-year-old Holcomb has appeared in 38 NFL games, going 8-13 (.381) in his 21 starts. After a playoff appearance LY, the Chiefs went 0-4 in the preseason and have opened the regular season at 0-2. LJ's holdout hurt the team, as the man who averaged 26 attempts per game in '06, has totaled just 26 carries in two games in '07 (for 98 yards). Look for MUCH more from Johnson in this one, even though the Vikings own a great rush D. Also, I expect QB Damon Huard to show some of his '06 form in which he went 5-3 as a starter, completing 60.7% with 11 TDs and only one INT (98.0 QB rating!). KC gets DE Jared Allen back from suspension this week and he's the team's best defensive player (27.5 sacks the L/3 years). The Chiefs actually out-gained the Bears in LW's loss (281-239) and I predict the team that's 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home openers, is PRIMED for a breakout game. 24* KC Chiefs.
Good Luck...Larry
posted by phantom
Sept. 22 2007 5:27am -
0 likes
Norm Hitzges
NFL
Pittsburgh -9.5 vs San Francisco
Washington -4 vs NY Giants
Cleveland +3 vs Oakland
Indianapolis -6 vs Houston
NY Jets -3 vs Miami
St. Louis +3.5 vs Tampa Bay
KC/Minnesota Under 33.5
Seattle/Cincy Over 50
Dallas/Chicago Over 41
KC -3 vs Minnesota
Cincinnati +3.5 vs Seattle
posted by phantom
Sept. 22 2007 5:27am -
0 likes
Doc's Sports
4 Unit Play. #110 Take Philadelphia -6 over Detroit (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) Many said last Monday’s game was a must win game for the Eagles at home against the Redskins. That did not occur, but we feel that the Lions coming to town is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track. The last time these two squads battled, it was all Eagles by a score of 30-13. The Eagles have a bye coming and realize that this is a must win game if they have any visions of repeating as NFC East Champions. QB McNabb has too much ability to be kept down for long. Philly dominated a much better NFC North team in week one, yet lost because of special teams. Now they put a complete game together and win this game by double-digits. Philly 28, Detroit 17.
5 Unit Play. #120 Take Cincinnati +3 ½ over Seattle (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) Game of the Month. Both teams need this win after suffering loses last week to lesser opponents. Both teams also have strong offenses and bad defenses meaning the underdog looks very attractive. With New England on deck, this is a must win game for the Bengals or they are looking @ a possible 1-3 start to the season. The Seahawks have won games because they play in a terrible division that keeps getting with the fall of St. Louis. The Seahawks defense gave up 431 yards to Arizona last week. We all know how bad the Bengals played in week 2, but there defense will respond and has a knack of creating turnovers to stop opposing drives. The Bengals will reach 30 points and this is just too much to ask of the Seahawks offense. Cincy 30, Seattle 27.
4 Unit Play. #128 Take New Orleans -4 ½ over Tennessee (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Saints have yet to find the magic of last season, but that can happen in the NFL, especially opening up with two games on the road. This will be their first game in the Superdome and is a must win affair in order to save their season. The Titans are coming off a tough loss to Indy, a game in which they had a chance to win with under two minutes to play. The Titans weakness (passing game) plays right into the Saints weakness (pass defense) and thus this is a perfect match-up for New Orleans. QB Brees is too good and has too many weapons to not put it together. New Orleans earns the victory and we collect on the last game of week three.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 22 2007 5:28am -
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MARC LAWRENCE PAID for NFL PICKS
4* St.Louis +4 Vs Tampa Bay
3* Cincinnati +3.5 Vs Seattle
3* New Orleans -4 Vs Tennessee
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 1:22am -
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Hilton Contest Top 5
#1 Dallas
#2 Kansas City
#3 San Diego
#4 Denver
#5 Tennessee
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 1:22am -
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VICTOR KING'S PAID for NFL O/U TOTALS PICKS
3* Jaguars @ Bronco's go Under The Total
2* Bills @ Patriots go Under The Total
2* Dolphins @ Jets go Under The Total (under Game Of The Week)
THIS COMES FROM HIS TOTALS TIP SHEET
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 1:23am -
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Handicapper World
Redskins @ Eagles
Line: 7
Pick: Redskins +7
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 1:23am -
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Boston Blackie comp
Philadelphia -5.5
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 3:54am -
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FairWay Jay /COMP
San Diego Chargers @ Green Bay Packers u43.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 23 '07 1:00p
In the NFL, I rarely lay more than a field goal with road favorites. And in this game, I won’t bet into a rising number on the favorite. However, fundamentals support the Chargers here, despite a running game that has yet to get untracked with LaDainian Tomlinson. Green Bay struggled mightily in their home opener week 1 vs. the Eagles, failing to score a TD but stealing a victory thanks to muffed plays on Philly special teams. The Packers ran the ball for just 46 yards that day, and managed just 3.4 yards-per-play (ypp). Last week, the ‘Pack had just 83 yards rushing on 2.9 ypr and an average 5.4 ypp in victory over the depleted and weak Giants defense. Now they face an angry and talented Chargers defense with great speed and exceptional linebackers that are part of their blow-up blitz packages. Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips combined for over 17 of the teams league-leading 61 sacks last season, and they’ll have QB Favre under pressure throughout the afternoon without a running game. Favre was sacked 4 times by the Eagles blitz schemes while under constant pressure. San Diego’s offense has struggled mightily, averaging just 3.7 and 3.7 ypp in opening weeks while managing just 14 points in each contest. Must note San Diego has faced the Bears and Patriots defenses, both among the best in each conference. However, Packer’s are quite stout up front on defense, and this travel situation is not favorable for San Diego. While I believe the Chargers may find a way to win this on the road, asking them to get the victory by a touchdown is difficult. The ‘under’ looks like a better play with struggling offenses and strength on defense. Play ‘under’ the total.
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 3:55am -
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ultra sports
4 miami
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 3:55am -
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Gator Report
NFL "Tech" Total GOW: Jacksonville vs. Denver
Technical Set: Game 3 road teams off back to back "Unders" are 5-16 Under since 1996 and a perfect 0-8 Under as underdogs of 8 points or less. NFL Home Favorites off back to back SU wins but off back to back ATS losses are 1-9 Under since 1986. Game 3 road teams who began the year with two straight home games are 1-7 Under since 1999. Jacksonville is 1-4 Under in their first road game of the season and 0-2 Under versus Denver the last two meetings. Denver is 0-13-1 Under off a division home game and 3-10 Under after facing the Raiders. Play Under NFL teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after allowing 9 points or less last game facing an opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. 12-38 Under the last 10 years.
Selection: UNDER 35
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 3:55am -
0 likes
8-1 with 5* NFL plays last year!!
Rocketman Sports
plays are rated 1-5 units / 8-1 5* NFL last year
Minnesota @ Kansas City 1:00 PM EST
Play On: 5* Kansas City -3
Minnesota is 1-7 ATS last 3 years in non conference games. Kansas City is 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS at home the past 3 years. Chiefs have won 4 of the past 6 meetings. Chiefs quarterback Damon Huard is 6-0 as a starter at home. Kansas City is 8-2 ATS as favorites when the Over-Under line is 35 points or less. Kansas City is 13-4 ATS in Game 3 last 17 years. Kansas City is 19-6 ATS in home openers. Kansas City is 8-1 ATS away off a non division game in September. Minnesota is 2-15 ATS off a straight up loss vs opponent off a double digit straight up loss. Brad Childress is 1-4 ATS off a division game vs non division opponent. We'll play Kansas City for 5 units today!
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 3:56am -
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Matt Wrobel Sports
1* - New York Jets (-3)
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posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 3:56am -
0 likes
Brandon Lang
SUNDAY
50 DIME
PITTSBURGH STEELERS - (Only lay -10. If your man has 10 1/2 , you buy the hook and only lay -10. If your man has 11 when you call up, lay that no problem. You NEVER let that 1/2 point beat you. NEVER get beat by the hook.
free pick - Cowboys/Bears OVER - For analysis see daily video
analysis by 9 am eastern
SUNDAY LATE PLAYS
20 DIME
BEARS - (If your man has 3 1/2, you buy the hook and only lay -3. If your man has -4, it's ok to lay that. You just NEVER, I repeat, NEVER get beat by the 1/2 point. NEVER get beat by the hook.)
10 DIME
Seahawks - (If your man has 3 1/2, you buy the hook and only lay -3. If your man has -4, it's ok to lay that. You just NEVER, I repeat, NEVER get beat by the 1/2 point. NEVER get beat by the hook.)
5 DIME
Packers
Lions
Buccaneers
Falcons
Free Pick - Cowboys/Bears OVER - (For analysis see Daily video)
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 3:56am -
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Larry Ness' 20* NFL Total of the Month (12-4 or 75% ATS the last four seasons!)
My 20* is on Car/Atl Over at 4:15 ET. We are getting some great value in this over/under number, as Atlanta has opened the '07 season with just 10 points! Bobby Petrino was brought in from Louisville to "spice up the offense" but of course Mike Vick's off-field problems left the Atlanta offense with Joey Harrington at the controls. Harrington has been DREADFUL in the first two weeks with a QB rating of 74.1. He's been sacked 13 times and Petrino has been very critical of his "holding onto the ball too long." I mention this because I believe we will see a much different Harrington on Sunday. This is Atlanta's first home game and you may remember Atlanta's first home game in the preseason (Monday nighter vs the Bengals), in which an animated Harrington had two first-half TD passes. I believe Harrington will "look to force things" in this game, with both GOOD and BAD consequences. Carolina's 2ndy has yet to make an interception (70 attempts) plus has just one sack, so Harrington could do well. If not, he'll lengthen the game with incompletions plus remember, both of his INTs this year have been returned for TDs. Atlanta's once proud rushing attack has been held in check by two excellent run defenses (Minnesota and Jacksonville) the first two weeks but Carolina's D is no longer top-flight. Carolina's Delhomme has completed 66.2% through two games with six TDs and only one INT (QB rating of 112.2) and Atlanta's 2ndy allowed David Garrard to pass for 272 yards LW. Atlanta once had a fierce pass rush but most of those key players have either left or are injured. Carolina is 1-1 but plays three straight division games (Bucs and Saints follow), with a chance to take control of what figures to be a weak NFC South. Carolina will not hold back. The team's running game is not longer a major threat, so that leaves it up to the passing game. Steve Smith already has 15 catches and four TDs. With a weakened pass rush and a questionable 2ndy, the Falcons will have trouble slowing down the Panthers. This game figures to top 50 points. NFL Total of the Month 20* Car/Atl Over.
Good Luck...Larry
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 3:57am -
0 likes
rossbenjaminsports
Cincinnati @ Seattle 4:15 PM ET 9/23/2007
Play On: Cincinnati +3.0
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The Bengals were in the perfect let down spot last week in their upset loss at Cleveland. They had just come off an emotional win over division favorite Baltimore in their opener, were playing a Browns team that looked pathetic in their opening loss to the Steelers, while waiting on deck were AFC powers Seattle and New England. The Seahawks played one solid half of football last week in their loss at Arizona. They continue to be an erratic football team in spite of being a very talented squad on both sides of the ball. I llok for the Bengals to come out roaring after last weeks embarrassing debacle. Play on Cincinnati plus the points.
Any non-division home favorite coming off an away straight up favorite loss, and is playing an opponents coming off an away favorite straight up loss is 0-8 ATS since 1980. The favorite is also just 2-6 straight up in those 8 games.
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 3:57am -
0 likes
KELSO (100* 13-2 overall)(50* 4-1):
100* G-O-Y BLOWOUT - DENVER
ROOT (6-1 Sat)(NO LIMIT 3-0 L3):
MILLIONAIRE Nfl Favorite of the Year-
CHAIRMAN Nfl Home Dog of the Day-
NO LIMIT Nfc Game of the Month -
CTO (11* 1-0):
11* KANSAS CITY
NESS (24* 0-0):
24* KANSAS CITY
HSW :
5* SEATTLE
PARLAY= SEATTLE,ATLANTA,KANSAS CITY
PSYCHIC (3* 4-0 Sat):
5* KANSAS CITY
3* CHICAGO, SEATTLE,WASHINGTON,CAROLINA
2* SAN DIEGO, PHILA/DET OVER
1* NY JETS
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:38pm -
0 likes
Trey Johnson
Underdog GOY JAGS
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:41pm -
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Mike Neri
3* Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Giants, Chicago
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:41pm -
0 likes
Indian Cowboy
Brokeback Mountain
CHICAGO over 41½ (POD)
SEATTLE under 49½
TAMPA over 38½
GREEN BAY over 43
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:42pm -
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Boxer Sports
Reg. Houston
Kansas City
Eagles
Arizona
St. Louis
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:42pm -
0 likes
Net Prophet
NFL:
Houston +7 over Indianapolis
Green Bay/San Diego UNDER 43
Jacksonville +3' over Denver
Seattle/Cincinnati OVER 49'
Cleveland +3 over Oakland
Washington -3' over NY Giants
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:43pm -
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carlo campanella
buf\new eng under
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:43pm -
0 likes
LT Profits
Bears (pod)
2* Browns
2* Vikings under
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:43pm -
0 likes
ats lock club
7denver
6indianapolis
5detroit
4dallas
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:44pm -
0 likes
Matt Fargo Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, September 23, 2007
$35.00 Guaranteed: Matt Fargo is 7-4 ATS (63.6 percent) the first two weeks of the NFL and he is now 18-9 ATS in his last 27 NFL games going back to last year! The biggest play of the young season thus far goes on Sunday with his High-Roller Game of the Month that is backed by a 45-8 ATS (84.9%) Power Situation! Do not miss it! Guaranteed! 9/21/2007
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers -9 -105
***High-Roller Game of the Month***The Steelers have outscored their foes by a 60-10 margin, while the 49ers two wins have come by a combined 4 points. That might normally call for a play on the underdog based on a bounce back spot but the Steelers are out to prove some things after last season’s start to the year so there will be no letdown especially with a game at Seattle on deck. San Francisco meanwhile is caught in a divisional sandwich, coming off that game against the Rams with a big home game against Seattle next week.
San Francisco has been outgained in both of its wins including last week against the Rams where St. Louis amassed 206 more yards than the 49ers put up. San Francisco won the game with only eight first downs. On the other side, Pittsburgh has outgained Buffalo and Cleveland by a combined 341 yards and the Steelers are averaging 197.5 ypg on the ground. That is skewed somewhat due to running the ball with a big lead but what isn’t skewed it their 5.2 ypc average.
San Francisco’s defense took a huge hit this week and it did not come at a good time. The 49ers lost one of their top defensive starters for the season when outside linebacker Manny Lawson's anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee was torn in practice. Lawson will be impossible to replace because he is a unique and versatile player. He is one of the fastest players on the 49ers' defense and had been playing with far more confidence and aggression than he did last year.
Frank Gore had 81 yards on 20 carries against St. Louis but 43 of those came on one clip so he averaged only two ypg on his other 19 touches. Gore had only 55 yards against the Cardinals in the opening weekend. Over the past four years, the Steelers have allowed a running back to rush for 100 yards only six times which is the best mark in the league. Pittsburgh has not allowed a running back to surpass the century mark since Edgerrin James did it 27 games ago in Indianapolis.
The Steelers lost the last meeting between these two teams back in 2003 and while that has nothing to do with this game, what Pittsburgh has done after that sure does. Since that defeat, Pittsburgh has gone an amazing 12-1 straight up and 9-3-1 ATS against the NFC, including 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS at home. Pittsburgh is 12-2 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in two straight games since 1992 while the 49ers are 13-40 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
San Francisco falls into a very solid go against situation, one that is a personal favorite and one that wins at an amazing clip. With the travel aspect of the 49ers, it brings in a solid situation favoring the Steelers. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 8-45 ATS (15.1 percent) since 2000. That includes a 1-8 ATS mark last season and a 0-1 ATS mark this year with the Broncos not covering in Buffalo in Week One. Play Pittsburgh Steelers 3 Units
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:44pm -
0 likes
Charlie Sports
Green Bay+5' ( 500*)
San Francsco+9' (30*)
Buffalo+16 (20*)
Atlanta+4 (20*)
Oakland-3 (10*)
Miami+3 (10*) free play
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:44pm -
0 likes
big al
At 4:15 pm, our NFC East Game of the Year is on the NY Giants plus the points over Washington. This game is a great spot for a letdown by the Redskins. Last week, Washington went into Philly and upset its NFC East rival 20-12 as a 7 point underdog. But unrested teams off a road division upset win are 15-46 as home favorites of 3 or more points vs. a division foe the following week, provided they covered the spread by 10 or more points in that upset win. (And Washington covered the spread by 15 in that game at Philly.) And if our road team (here the New York Giants) has a win percentage of .500 or less, then we improve our 46-15 system to an awesome 38-6. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Sunday Night Game of the Month or my 85% ATS NFL Shocker!
At 8:15 pm, our Sunday Night Game of the Month is on Chicago minus the points over Dallas. The Cowboys have scored 45 and 37 points in their first two games, and one of the things I like to do in the NFL is go against teams with back to back high scoring games. I think Dallas will have a difficult time moving the ball against Chicago, who has the league's top defense. The Bears contained LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson in their first two games, and won't have any problem with Dallas' running backs. I also think Tony Romo will be less effective in this game, than against Miami and the Giants as he'll be facing a big pass rush. Dallas has also shown vulnerability on defense, as it gave up 438 yards and 35 points in Week 1 to the Giants and 20 points and 334 yards to an inept Miami offense. Chicago has enough offensive weapons in Bernard Berrian, Devin Hester and Cedric Benson to score more than enough points than its #1 defense will allow. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Cincy Bengals plus the points over Seattle. One of the most reliable systems (85% ATS since 1980) is to take any .500 (or better) underdog of more than 3 points off exactly one straight-up loss, provided it was favored by minus 6 points or more in that loss, and it is now matched up against a .500 (or better) foe that is not off a SU/ATS win. Last week, Cincy was favored by 7 points over Cleveland and fell 51-45. Now, Marvin Lewis' men are catching 3.5 vs. the Seahawks, who check in off a loss themselves (23-20 at Arizona). Look for the Bengals to play much better today. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 38-6 ATS Division Game of the Year or my Sunday Night Game of the Month.
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:45pm -
0 likes
Asa
5* Chargers
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:45pm -
0 likes
Spy Lock
1*Arizona Cardinals +8
1*Pittsburgh Steelers -9
3*Tennessee Titans +4
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:45pm -
0 likes
Robert Ferringo
3.5-Unit Play. Take #980 Los Angeles Angels (-1.5, -110) over Seattle (3:30 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
Jeff Weaver is the A.L.’s version of Kip Wells. I’ll bet against both as long as I can. John Lackey is a stud, and this has been an emotional series. The Angels will clinch today behind their ace, against a guy with a career 4.95 ERA in Anaheim.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #957 Houston (-155) over St. Louis (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
The Astros are 8-2 in Roy Oswalt’s last 10 starts and 8-3 in his last 11 starts against the Cardinals. He is 13-3 after six or more days of rest in his career and hasn’t thrown since the 14th due to the birth of his first child. I think the new dad brings his best stuff today, and the Astros – who dominated the first two games of this series before losing yesterday – take care of business against the Cardinals.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #961 Cincinnati (-155) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
Aaron Harang has been MLB’s top money pitchers all season long and now he’s matched up against a guy who hasn’t thrown in the Majors since 2004.
3-Unit Play. Take #964 San Diego (-130) over Colorado (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
This has been a back-and-forth series but the Padres are playing great baseball and they will wrap up another. Jeff Francis is 2-8 in his last 10 starts against San Diego and the Padres have been solid against left-handed pitching at home all season.
3-Unit Play. Take #968 New York Yankees (-1.5, -115) over Toronto (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
MOOSE!!! The Moose is back in business for the Yankees, and the Blue Jays are just playing out the string now without Vernon Wells. I think the Yankees make a statement today.
2-Unit Play. Take #970 Detroit (-1.5, -125) over Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 23)
After losing as a big favorite yesterday, the Tigers have a severe pitching mismatch in their favor against one of the worst teams in the league. They have been one of the best teams in the league against left-handed pitching, and I would hope they could beat a team as pathetic as the Royals with their playoff lives on the line.
That's it for today. Good luck.
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:46pm -
0 likes
Wunderdog
Game: St. Louis at Tampa Bay (Sunday 9/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Tampa Bay -3.5
Tampa Bay, 4-12 last season, is off to a 1-1 start and coming off a big win over the Saints last Sunday. They shut out New Orleans' once potent offense for nearly three full quarters. Pop Quiz: What are the two words that Philadelphia residents least want to hear? Answer: Jeff Garcia. Think they wish they still had him? Really a bigtime bonehead move to let him go in the offseason. McNabb is still hurting - you don't return to top form in less than one year after an ACL. If they had Garcia, they could have been using him. Instead, they are 0-2 and have nowhere to turn. Anyway, back to the Bucs. Garcia has played stellar thrown for 444 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He's a good fit for Gruden's West Coast offense. The more he plays there, the better he'll get. St. Louis has started 0-2 at home and now embark on a five game road trip. Ouch. So far, teams are taking Stephen Jackson out of the passing game by blitzing Bulger to his side (forcing him to stay in and block). Bulger has already been sacked seven times and Jackson hasn't yet gotten 100 yards on the ground. St. Louis looks completely baffled and emotionally down. We like the Bucs here at home, high off a big upset win, to handle the Rams.
Game: Indianapolis at Houston (Sunday 9/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston +6
There certainly is a different feeling in Houston this season as the Texans enter a crucial AFC South game vs. the Colts. The Texans and Colts are both 2-0, and not many expected the Texans to be in this position. With a win, they take control of the division. This is a vastly improved team, and there are big differences on both sides of the ball. The biggest change happened where it matters most - at QB. Matt Schaub was said by many scouts to potentially be a Pro Bowl quarterback, and he has proved them right so far in 2007. He has completed 36 of 50 passes for 72%, with 3 TDs and just one INT. Last year, if this team was down on the road 14-0 early, they would have had no chance. But this year is different as they piled up 34 points and won easily last week. The Texans are averaging 27 points per game and are a team with balance. Ahman Green and Ron Dayne have each carried 31 times, with Green averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The offensive line has allowed just two sacks, while the defense has recorded six. The playmaker on defense, missing from this team in years past, is Ambobi Okoye. The Texans first round pick has two sacks and a forced fumble already. The Colts managed just 6 second half points last week vs. the Titans, and hung on 22-20 by forcing a fumble late. It doesn't get any easier for the Colts this week as they stay on the road. The Colts "A" game has not translated well on the road. They have been out-scored 94-132 in their last five away games, and the win vs. Tennessee was their first in five games on the road. Last year the Colts managed just one road win by 7 points. All other games were lost or won by less than this spread. We like the improved Texans to at the very least keep this close.
Game: Cincinnati at Seattle (Sunday 9/23 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati +3.5
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 50 -110
Wow! Did that Bengals-Browns game really happen last week? Did Cleveland, behind Derek Anderson, really roll up 51 points on Cincinnati? Yeah, it happened. And now oddsmakers and the betting public are overracting drastically to one game. All of a sudden the Bengals get no respect, and the total in this game goes to a sky-high 50. Carson and company are getting 3.5 points from a team that lost outright last week as a favorite to Arizona. After an embarrassment like that, we think the Bengals defense comes to play here. Their pride was wounded and they will not lay down again and play that bad two weeks in a row. Let's not forget what this Bengals offense is capable of. Carson Palmer is in the conversation when discussing the league's best quarterback. He has two amazing receivers and a top-tier running back. He threw for 401 yards and six touchdowns last game. He can win you the close games. You could say that Seattle gave away the game last week with their late fumble. But, they were soundly beaten, down by 17 points at one point. Under coach Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 12-4 ATS off a game in which they scored 30+ points including a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road. Seattle is just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Last year in Cincinnati road games, the final score did not top 50 once. The Bengals are in fact 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 road games with a total of 46 or higher. Seattle has played 11 games over the last several years with a posted total at home of over 44 and just once did it make it over the total. Unlike Cleveland, the Seahawks won't want to get into a shootout with Cincinnati. They know they are likely in trouble in that kind of game. Coach Holmgren will look to grind it out with Alexander, knowing that a short clock burning game is the most likely road to a Seahawks victory. We love the overreaction to last week's most surprising game and as such, we'll take both Cincinnati and the UNDER here.
Game: Carolina at Atlanta (Sunday 9/23 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Atlanta +3.5
When Michael Vick was suspended during the offseason, everyone expected the Falcons to crash and burn. In their first two games they have done just that, scoring 10 points total. Joey Harrington has been very bad and now most people have written off the Falcons. We think this is a great opportunity to back them, however. We see good reason for this game to be very different than their first two. While the first two games were ont he road, this game is in Atlanta. Harrington has been known to get rattled easily on the road when he was at Miami and Detroit. He has been sacked 13 times in the first two games, making it hard to get the offense going. But, Carolina has recorded just one sack all season. Without the pressure, he is capable of a good game. If Harrington continues to struggle though, we would not be surprised to see Chris Redman inserted at some point, as he is Petrino's boy from Louisville and knows this system inside and out. The first two losses for the Falcons were against two very good defenses on the road. Jacksonville had the league's top defense at home last season and Minnesota was #1 against the run. The two teams are ranked #2 and #3 in the league in scoring defense thus far in 2007 (behind Pittsburgh). Carolina, meanwhile, is ranked 24th. The public is all over the Panthers in this game as Atlanta seems very down and out. The public is wrong much more often than not. Carolina was just 1-3 ATS last season laying points on the road and under John Fox, they are 10-21 ATS laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. We look for a different Atlanta team here and an outright win or close game for the cover.
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:47pm -
0 likes
Gold Sheet -Phone Plays
1.5* Colts Under
1* Kc and lions
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:47pm -
0 likes
Northcoast
marquee- Dallas
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:47pm -
0 likes
Sebastian Sports
10 Miami
20 Cinn
20 Oak
30 Giants
50 Phill
100 Jacks
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:47pm -
0 likes
The Real Animal
5* Steelers
added play
4* Over browns game
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:48pm -
0 likes
lovell
40* chic/dallas under 41 -GOY
10* rams
10*skins
5* miami
5* colts
Reply With Quote
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:48pm -
0 likes
ASA
5* San Diego
Gameday
3* Carolina
2* St. Louis
2* Giants
JB Sports
3* Kansas City
3* Eagles
3* Buffalo
3* St Louis
3* Giants
Gator
3* Pittsburgh
Jim Feist
10* Cincinnatti
10* Dallas
10* Atlanta
5* Houston
5* San Fran
5* Dallas Over
Inside Steam
2* Baltimore
2* Detroit
2* Pittsburgh
____________
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:48pm -
0 likes
Blazer
4* Oaklland
3* San Fran
Dave Cokin
Kansas City
Oakland
Giants
Miami
Score
500 Pittsburgh
300 Jacksonville
300 Cincinatti
__________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:49pm -
0 likes
Compufun
Top Play Pitt
Reg Play Clev Car Neng Hous
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:50pm -
0 likes
Ron meyer Steelers
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:50pm -
0 likes
Dolphin
3 Chic Chic Over Wash Clev
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:50pm -
0 likes
Dolphin
3 Chic Chic Over Wash Clev
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:50pm -
0 likes
ports Authority
3 Oak Under
2 St L Over Atl
_________________
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:51pm -
0 likes
CEASAR SPORTS PLAYERS CLUB
HIGH ROLLER GAMES FOR 9/23/07
Game of the Day: DENVER BRONCOS
(4-5-1 )
TV Game of the Day: WASHINGTON REDSKINS
(6-4)
Dog Game of the Day: DALLAS COWBOYS
(3-4-1)
Revenge Game of the Day: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
(3-2-1 )
MisMatch Game of the Day: ARIZONA CARDINALS
(6-1)
Total Game of the Day: OAKLAND/CLEVELAND-OVER
(6-4)
Yesterday Results: 4-2
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:51pm -
0 likes
NEXT REPORT 12 55 FINAL AT 1 30
1. A-PLAY
2. ASA/5 SD
3. ATS/ 7 DEN/ 6 INDY/ 5 DET/ 4 DALLAS
4. BEN BURNS / LK- CHIC
5. BIG AL/ NFCEGOY NYG/ SUN NITE GOM CHI
6. DAVE COKIN/Top- KCITY
7. DOC'S 5 CINCY/ 4PHILLY, NO
8. EXECUTIVE
9. DR BOB/ 3 CINCY/ OPINIONS HOU, BUFF, TB , CHI, DAL UND, TENN
10. FINAL SCORE
11. GOLD KEY/ LOCK 100 OVER-DET
12. GOLD SHEET/ 1.5 INDY UND/ 1 KC, DET
13. GUARANTEED/ Top- NYJ
14. HILTON CONTEST
15. INSIDE EDGE/ 3 SD
16. JB SPORTS
17. JIM FIEST/ LK- CINCI
18. KELSO/ 100 LOCK DEN
19. LARRY NESS/24* KC/ TOM CAR OVER
20. LATE INFO PLAYS/ 100 INDY
21. LENNY STEVENS/20 GOM OVER PHILLY/ 20 JACK/ 10 PITT, MIA, OAK
22. LOCKEROOM/ 100 PHILA
23. MASTERS EDGE
24. MIKE LEE
25. MIKE NERI
26. MVP POWER LOCKS
27. NATIONAL SPORTSLINE/ 10 NENG
28. NORTHCOAST/ 3.5 PITT/ 3 CAR , NYJ
29. POINTWISE/ 3 GB, PITT, KC, TENN/ NYG, CLEVE, NE
30. PRIME STAR/ 3 BALT
31. PREFERRED PICKS/ 4 ST.LOU
32. PPP/ 5 DEN, UND GB/ 3 ARI, SEA/
33. SCORE
34. SPORTS ADVISOR/LOCK 10 TB
35. SPORTS NETWORK/LK- DENV
36. SPORTS ONE
37. SPREITZER
38. TIPPS
39. TEXAS INSIDERS
40. UNDERDOG
41. VEGAS STEAM/10 LOCK PHILLY
42. VEGASH HI ROLLERs
43. VICTORY SPORTS/ LK- DALLAS
44. VIP SPORTS/LK 300 KCITY
45. WAYNE ROOT
46. WORLD WAGER/ LK- PITT
47. WIZARD
48. ANIMAL
49. ENDZONE/ LK- NENG
50. YOURWINNERSONLY
51. LANG/ 50 PITT/ 20 CHI/ GB,DET, TB, ATL
52.YOURWINNERSONLY HI LIFE CLUB
53.GAMEDAY
54. SPECIAL K
55. APWINS/STEAMER DENVER/ REG PITT, KC/ MLB STEAMER CLEVE
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:52pm -
0 likes
Wiseguy sports
2 Units Colts
2 Units Packers UNDER
1 Unit Jets
1 Unit Seahawks
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:53pm -
0 likes
Scott Spreitzer's NFL Knockout Beatdown! *42-19, 69% ATS Run!
Denver has been quite possibly, the most fortunate team through the first two weeks of action. They followed a last-second win over Buffalo, with an OT victory over the hapless Raiders. The worst news for Denver is that they can't stop the run. The Broncos are allowing 156 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per pop and will now face a Jaguar offense that sports one of the best RB duos in the league. This is the week that the mammoth Jaguar offensive line puts it together for Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Once the two RBs get it going, it should be lights-out! The Jaguar play-action offense is obviously predicated by a strong ground attack. Against this defense, I believe the Jaguars will finally bust out. Defensively, the aggressive Jaguar defense should be able to keep Denver's offense in check. Jay Cutler is an up-and-comer, but he doesn't yet possess the ability to make defenses pay downfield on a consistent basis. That will be Denver's offensive undoing in this one. The Broncos may be undefeated, but the Jags are the better team. We'll grab the points with Jacksonville on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:54pm -
0 likes
Wolkosky Milan
121-72-2 last thirty six days!!! (62.7%)
5-1 Yesterday!
Today:
10* CHIEFS -3
10* DOLPHINS +3
10* COWBOYS +3½
10* FALCONS +4
10* STL/TB OVER 38
10* CAR/ATL OVER 37
10* IND/HOU UNDER 47½
Free: PACKERS +5½
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:55pm -
0 likes
KING CREOLE's late-phone service
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL / Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots / 1:05et
We’ve used the Bills/Patriots ‘Under†as a play numerous times.... and been rewarded with consistent winners. In fact, this AFC East series has actually gone 2-14 O/U in the last 16 meetings... and a PERFECT 0-8 when playing IN New England. Now, on to the OU Systems: The Patriots have started the year with a couple of BIG wins.... both by the exact same scores: 38-14 (How rare is that?). As a result, we note that In the first 5 games of the season, teams off BB SU wins of 21 or more pts (PATS) have gone an almost-perfect 1-10-2 O/U since the 2001 season. Meanwhile, the Bills are 0-2 out of the gate and qualify in this one: Game 3 road dogs off BB SU losses, with the last by double digits... have gone 4-17 O/U n the last 10 years... and 1-9-1 O/U since 2001. When I reviewed last year’s TOTALS TIPSHEET #3, it contained a nice Division System as well. It still applies. Game 3 road teams playing with REVENGE against a division opponents have gone 3-12 O/U since 2002... and 1-8 O/U as dogs of 3 > pts (BILLS). As far as applicable team OU trends go, BUFFALO is 2-8 O/U away off BB SU losses... 2-6 O/U after playing the Steelers... 2-6 O/U away in Game Three... 2-6 O/U before a division home game... and 1-8 O/U when playing with Revenge on the division road. NEW ENGLAND is 4-13 O/U as home favs of -8 > pts (including a PERFECT 0-10 O/U vs fellow AFC East foes)... 1-6 O/U before a Monday game... and 1-6 O/U vs a winless opp (Gm 3 >).
3*** UNDER the TOTAL / Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans / 1:05et
Houston will be without their best offensive player in WR Andre Johnson... but that's NOT a bad thing for us "under' players. If HC Gary Kubiak is as smart as I think he is, he'll turn that offensive disadvantage into an ADVANTAGE. Knowing how poor the Colt rush defense is, Kubiak would be smart to POUND the ball on the ground with the tandem of Ahman Green and Ron Dayne. We're talking 35-40 rushing attempts here. It's a 'win-win" situation. By accentuating the ground game, you (A) Take advantage of an opponent's major weakness on defense... and the Colts allowed over 100+ rushing yards vs the Saints in game one... and 140+ rushing yards last week to the Titans. And (B). you keep a quick-strike high-octane offense like Indy's off the field. Don't forget that the COLTS are already 0-2 O/U this year as the line makers have been setting their OU lines too high.... knowing that the general betting public will continue to play their weekly Colt "over" (like lambs to the slaughter!). Here's your Systems: Game 3 AFC South DIVISION games have gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U since 2002. Game 3 road teams who went "Under" in their first 2 games (COLTS) have gone 5-16 O/U in the last 10 years. And finally: Week Three games with an OU line if 46 > pts have gone 1-8 O/U when the home team is an UNDERDOG... and a PERFECT 0-5 O/U when the OU line is 47 > pts (TEXANS).
Additional OU opinions:
Lions/Eagles UNDER
Jets/Dolphins UNDER
Chargers/Packers UNDER
Panthers/Falcons OVER
Jaguars/Broncos UNDER
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:55pm -
0 likes
JB Sports
3* Kansas City
3* Eagles
3* Buffalo
3* St Louis
3* Giants
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:56pm -
0 likes
Root No Limit GOY-Chicago
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:56pm -
0 likes
Krunch's Early National Fixed League FADES
Okay gang, I'm gonna post the plays that you are to play!!!! I will post the number of services later on.
Play the Eagles -5 I think this game is gonna be a blowout
Play the 49ers +10 1/2 (buy a 1/2 pt) Everyone and his brother is on the Steelers
Play the Dolphins +3 1/2 (again buy 1/2 pt) The Jets have covered 7 in a row over the Dolphins, so the due factor is definitely in our favor here!!!!
Play the Vikings +3 1/2 (buy 1/2 pt) Everyone and his brother are on the Chiefs today!!!!
Will be back NLT 3:30 with the afternoon fades, keep checking in just in case I post earlier.
Thanks and Good Luck
Krunch
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:58pm -
0 likes
1. Ats 7-den, 6-indy, 5-det, 4-dall
2. Bankers 500-balt, 300-den Under, Atl
3. Ben Burns 8 Top: Chi, Reg: Kc, Cleve Under, Atl, Nyg, Phil
4. Big Money 4t Caro
5. Blazer 4-oak, 3-sf
6. Carolina Sports 7 4-nyg, 3-cn Over, Jets
7. Doc Enterprises 5-cn, 4-phil
8. Dr. Bob 3-cn
9. Gameday 2t 3-caro, 2-stl, Nyg
10. Inside Info 2t 2-balt, Det, Kc
11. Joe D 4t 20-caro
12. Lenny Stevens 20-phil Over, Jax, 10-pitt, Mia, Oak
13. Lt Profits 6 3-chi, 2-cleve, Kc Under
14. Nationwide (goldst) Top: Indy Under, Reg: Det, Kc
15. Neri 3-pitt, Cn, Nyg, Chi
16. Northcoast 3 1/2-piutt, 3-caro, Jets
17. Pointwise 9 3-gb, Pitt, Kc, 2-nyg, Ne, Cleve
18. Preferred Picks 4-stl, 3-cn
19. Private Players 5-den, Sd Under, 3-ariz, Sea & Under, Atl Over
20. Score 500-pitt, 300-jax, Cn
21. Underdog 1 Cn
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 12:59pm -
0 likes
Billy Coleman
5* Carolina
Rockman
5* KC nfl
Accu Picks
5* Boston TB over 10
3* NYY -1.5
3* Arizona MLB
posted by phantom
Sept. 23 2007 1:04pm