NEWSLETTERS FOR WEEK OF 9/17
THE GOLD SHEET
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 23
Indianapolis 21 - HOUSTON 20--Texans "pumped" these days, scoring a franchise-high 34 points last week at Carolina and riding a team-record four-game win streak going back to LY. They're not doing it with mirrors in 2007, as Andre Johnson has 14 recs. & 3 TDs, Matt Schaub is hitting 72%, A. Green/R. Dayne have combined for two straight 100-yd. games, and eager rookie DT Okoye had two sacks last week! Indy 0-4-1 vs. spread last 5 on road vs. AFC South.
(06-INDY 43-Hou. 24...I.34-18 I.35/125 H.23/108 I.26/38/0/390 H.22/26/0/191 I.1 H.2)
(06-HOU. 27-Indy 24...H.22-19 H.42/191 I.18/114 I.21/27/0/205 H.16/23/0/163 H.0 I.1)
(06-INDIANAPOLIS -13 43-24, HOUSTON +9 27-24...SR: Indianapolis 9-1)
San Diego 27 - GREEN BAY 10--After three TDP last week at the Giants, Brett Favre is only three short of Dan Marino's all-time record. But don't look for them here. Despite last week's shelling at N.E., S.D. has way too much defense for G.B., especially considering Packers' inconsistent, non-scary ground game. "L.T." gives Chargers a big rush advantage in this one. While GB OL gave up 4 sacks in opener vs. Philly. Chargers 9-1-2 vs. spread L3+Ys after a straight-up loss.
(03-Green Bay -5 38-21...SR: Green Bay 7-1)
UNDER THE TOTAL KANSAS CITY 17 - Minnesota 9--Rematch of Super Bowl IV, won by Hank Stram over Bud Grant! This matchup features late-arrival RB Larry Johnson of the Chiefs vs. rookie star Adrian Peterson of the Vikings. K.C. will gladly welcome the return from suspension of starting DE Jared Allen (7½ sacks LY), who will join with DE Tamba Hali (8) to make life miserable for young Minny QBs T. Jackson (4 ints. last week; strained groin) or Bollinger. Although Vikes tough vs. the run (No. 1 LY), Chiefs excel at home (12-4 vs. spread last 16). Dueling ground games point to "under."
(03-MINNESOTA +2' 45-20...SR: Kansas City 5-4)
Detroit 20 - PHILADELPHIA 19--Matchups potentially troubling for Philly, whose aging secondary is minus injured CB Lito Sheppard and might provide a nice target for Mike Martz' souped-up Detroit aerial show (check status of QB Kitna). Meanwhile, with his mobility compromised, Donovan McNabb not the dynamic performer he was earlier in career, which limits Philly's schemes (and ways to isolate Brian Westbrook).
(04-Philadelphia -4' 30-13...SR: Philadelphia 13-12-2)
NEW ENGLAND 30 - Buffalo 10--Although stripped of (some of?) their electronic surveillance gear, Pats still have too much firepower, depth, and competence for Buffalo team limited on offense to start the season and now stripped by injury of considerable manpower at DE, LB & DB. Huge favorites are rarely great percentage plays in the NFL, but this seems to be a "rich man, poor man" situation.
(06-N. ENG. 19-Buf. 17...N.19-12 N.41/183 B.24/99 B.15/23/0/141 N.11/23/1/136 N.1 B.0)
(06-N. Eng. 28-BUF. 6...N.18-13 N.27/94 B.25/75 B.16/25/1/181 N.18/27/0/171 N.0 B.2)
(06-NEW ENGLAND -9' 19-17, New England -5' 28-6...SR: New England 53-40-1)
NY JETS 20 - Miami 10--In their current states, neither will be confused with Don Coryell's old San Diego Chargers. Especially with Chad Pennington (ankle; check status) not 100% for New York, and new HC Cam Cameron still trying to unlock the combination for the sluggish Miami "O" and his rebuilt OL. But in this match, Jets have a little more going for them, at least until Dolphin RBs R. Brown & Chatman find a little more room to maneuver. Note N.Y. has covered last 7 in series!
(06-JETS 20-Miami 17...M.24-15 M.29/129 N.27/103 M.27/43/2/266 N.17/29/0/169 N.0 M.1)
(06-Jets 13-MIAMI 10...M.14-12 M.24/124 N.30/95 N.14/29/0/229 M.18/31/0/129 N.1 M.0)
(06-NY JETS -2' 20-17, NY Jets +2' 13-10...SR: NY Jets 43-39-1)
PITTSBURGH 17 - San Francisco 13 --S.F. hanging in on defense TY, with free-agent addition Nate Clements combining with Walt Harris to give 49ers a pair of aggressive CBs, while rookie ILB Patrick Willis is a piercing force as at ILB. Niners (only 186 yds. of offense last week), taking few chances on offense and leaving the heavy lifting to RB Frank Gore, are 8-3 last 11 as a road dog.
(03-SAN FRANCISCO -4 30-14...SR: San Francisco 10-8)
BALTIMORE 23 - Arizona 10--Even if it's Kyle Boller at QB again, prefer to side with ravin' Raven defense at home vs. the young Matt Leinart (only 13 career starts) playing behind an OL that last week featured two rookies (RT L. Brown, C Sendlein) and a second-year G Lutui. It's doubtful that Edgerrin James (128 YR vs. Seattle) can duplicate last week's performance, putting Leinart under constant pressure. RB McGahee has 174 YR first two games for host.
(03-Baltimore -5' 26-18...SR: Baltimore 2-1)
St. Louis 17 - TAMPA BAY 16--Loss of huge LT Orlando Pace (season) and athletic CB Tye Hill have Rams adjusting on both offense and defense. But Bucs an unreliable favorite at home (0-3-1 LY). Moreover, Cadillac Williams (2 TDR last week) still has sore ribs, and HC Gruden bemoaning the lack of receiver help for Joey Galloway (2 TDC vs. Saints). Prefer to side with the greater offensive talent of Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson & WRs Holt, Bruce & Bennett.
(04-ST. LOUIS -6' 28-21...SR: St. Louis 11-6)
Jacksonville 19 - DENVER 17--Jags racked up 7 sacks last week vs. Atlanta after their defense was run over by Tennessee in opener. So, will take points vs. still-learning Jay Cutler (2 ints. vs. Raiders). Denver defense, while quick rushing the passer, was not so good vs. the run in allowing 159 YR to LaMont Jordan. Broncos a somewhat mysterious 1-8 vs. spread their last 9 as home favorite!
(05-Denver +4 20-7...SR: Denver 4-3)
SEATTLE 30 - Cincinnati 24--After last week's humiliating, 51-point non-performance at Cleveland, rest assured Cincy defenders will play with much more grit. Still, feel confident Seattle will bring much more defense to bear, especially at noisy Qwest Field. Shaun Alexander's left hand bothering him somewhat. But he and heady QB Hasselbeck will provide HC Holmgren with just the tools he needs for his ball-control, keep-away attack.
(03-CINCINNATI +2' 27-24...SR: Cincinnati 9-8)
Cleveland 27 - OAKLAND 20--Lowly Browns have taken full advantage of Oakland's recent doldrums, winning not only 24-21 LY, but also 9-7 in 2005! And strong-armed Derek Anderson last week was an impressive trigger to the Cleveland attack, as new off. coord. Rob Chudzinski (Chargers LY) kept his vow of getting the ball to WR Braylon Edwards & TE Kellen Winslow II (combined 14 recs. for 246 yards), while Jamal Lewis (215 YR!) found the Fountain of Youth vs. Cincy. Oakland QB McCown had 3 ints. vs. only 8 completions at Denver last week!
(06-Cle. 24-OAK. 21...C.21-14 O.24/194 C.35/104 C.22/32/2/179 O.9/24/1/46 C.1 O.0)
(06-Cleveland -2' 24-21...SR: Oakland 11-7)
Carolina 19 - ATLANTA 10--Matchup vs. Julius Peppers and Carolina's active pass rushers will be latest reminder how Michael Vick's absence changes dynamics for Atlanta. Whereas Vick's mobility often (but not always) neutralized Panther defensive push, John Fox's "D" licking its chops for shots at Joey Harrington (sacked 13 times TY) in pocket. Carolina still adjusting to new o.c. Davidson's schemes, but still owns best playmaker on field in Steve Smith (4 TDC in two games). Falcs "under" 13-4-1 last 18.
(06-Atl. 20-CAR. 6...A.24-15 A.47/252 C.16/65 C.21/39/1/150 A.10/22/0/133 A.0 C.1)
(06-Car. 10-ATL. 6...C.15-8 C.52/183 A.19/83 A.9/20/2/94 C.4/7/0/11 C.0 A.0)
(06-Atlanta +5 20-6, Carolina +6 10-3...SR: Atlanta 15-9)
NY Giants 23 - WASHINGTON 20--Redskins fireplug MLB London Fletcher (5-10, 245) became an immediate hit with his 12 tackles and leadership in 16-13 opening-week victory over Miami. Which is a big plus, considering that RT Jon Jansen has been lost for the season and that insiders report young QB J. Campbell "tipping" many of his passes. Meanwhile, Eli Manning (5 TDP TY) has another week to heal his shoulder, and he owns superior targets.
(06-GIANTS 19-Wash. 3...N.20-10 N.36/155 W.20/78 N.23/33/0/256 W.12/22/0/86 N.0 W.0)
(06-Giants 34-WASH. 28...N.23-21 N.34/261 W.29/128 W.22/32/1/265 N.12/26/0/94 N.0 W.1)
(06-NY GIANTS -5 19-3, NY Giants -2 34-28...SR: NY Giants 85-61-4)
*Dallas 24 - CHICAGO 23--Prepared to take any points with Dallas, playing with increasing confidence offensively. "T.O." (3 TDC) having fun, J.Jones & Barber give Cowboys better RB duo, rookie Folk a revelation at PK, and Tony Romo making more good plays and fewer mistakes than Rex Grossman. And, are we the only ones who see a deterioration in the Chicago OL? This one has early implications for January playoff scenarios. TV--NBC
(04-DALLAS -3' 21-7...SR: Dallas 12-8)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
*NEW ORLEANS 27 - Tennessee 26--New Orleans (only 1-5 as home fav. LY) unable so far to regain LY's momentum, while improved Tennessee now 12-2 vs. spread last 14 overall, and 12-2 last 14 getting points! Titans' defense (16 ppg) better than most expected. Jeff Fisher credits his OL with being the engine that drives Vince Young and the Tennessee offense. Titans "under" first two TY, but Drew Brees and Saints should help Tenn. get back on LY's 13-3 "over" track. CABLE TV--ESPN
(03-TENNESSEE -4' 27-12...SR: Tennessee 6-4-1)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Tennessee and New Orleans on Monday Night
Tennessee is 5-7 straight-up and 5-7 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
11-8 straight-up and 9-9-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
New Orleans is 1-6 straight-up and 2-5 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
7-8 straight-up and 6-9 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 1999 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2003 Reg. Seas.: Tennessee -4½ beat New Orleans 27-12 at Tennessee
1999 Reg. Seas.: Tennessee -3 beat New Orleans 24-21 at New Orleans
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-07)
Favorites vs. Pointspread
Favored by 1-6½ points Won 84, Lost 87, Tied 4
Favored by 7 points or more Won 32, Lost 25, Tied 2
Total Favorites Won 116, Lost 112, Tied 6
Home Teams vs. Pointspreads
Home Team Favorite Won 84, Lost 83, Tied 6
Home Team Underdog Won 29, Lost 31
Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0
Total Home Team Won 114, Lost 114, Tied 6
2007 MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS
Cincinnati -2½ beat Baltimore 27-20 at Cincinnati o40
San Francisco -3 beat Arizona 20-17 at San Francisco u45
NFL KEY RELEASES
SAN DIEGO by 17 over Green Bay
CLEVELAND by 7 over Oakland
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Minnesota-Kansas City game
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “Oâ€â€”Offense. “Dâ€â€”Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions. ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years. TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 20
*Texas A&M 20 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 19--Unsettled Hurricane offense blowing more cold than hot early on, although return to LY's starter Kyle Wright at QB gives aerial attack more zip. Tough for Aggie option to get to corners vs. speedy UM defense. Still, A&M should be able to pound ball between tackles with bruising jr. RB J. Lane (6-0, 275; 6 TDs last 2 games). Hurricanes haven't lost a Thursday night game since 2000, but Aggies 5-1-1 last 7 as dog. CABLE TV--ESPN
(DNP...SR: Texas A&M 1-0)
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 21
*Oklahoma 49 - TULSA 22--Conflicting technical trends. Potent Tulsa 8-3 last 11 as dog, but surging OU 15-4-1 vs. spread overall its last 20 games. So, inclined to favor most compelling fundamental edge in matchup--Sooner defense (allowed just 1 meaningful TD in first 3 games) has WAAAAY more speed, depth & playmakers than vulnerable Hurricane stop unit that was scorched for nearly 700 yards in last week's home win over BYU. CABLE TV--ESPN2
(05-OKLAHOMA -31 31-15...SR: Oklahoma 14-7-1)
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
LOUISVILLE 52 - Syracuse 10--Cardinals down in dumps after late loss at rival Kentucky, but not nearly as depressed as staggering Syracuse side that's off to 0-3 start for first time in 21 years. Massive firepower edge to Louisville, as maligned Card defense finally meets an attack it can contain in juiceless Orange offense. Host 16-3 vs. spread last 19 at Papa John's.
(06-Lvl. 28-SYR. 13...L.24-18 L.36/223 S.28/19 S.24/41/1/303 L.18/26/1/203 L.2 S.1)
(06-Louisville -17' 28-13 05-LOUISVILLE -36 41-17...SR: EVEN 3-3)
INDIANA 31 - Illinois 24--Indiana victory over Akron didn't come as easily as 41-24 final would indicate, as Hoosiers scored twice in the final 6:25 to extend margin and get the cover. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis playing well, but so are Illini RB Rashard Mendenhall (6 TDs, 6.4 ypc) and frosh WR Arrelious Benn (13 catches). Hoosier pass rush greatly improved (17 sacks TY) and Illinois is 2-18 SU away since '03.
(06-Ind. 34-ILL. 32...In.21-16 Il.38/209 In.33/149 In.20/41/0/240 Il.11/22/0/217 In.1 Il.1)
(06-Ind. +8 34-32 05-IND. -6' 36-13 04-ILL. -2' 26-22...SR: Illinois 41-20-3)
NAVY 30 - Duke 24--As long as Duke not on cloud nine after ending 22-game losing streak last week (we haven't seen a Blue Devil team celebrate that much since Christian Laettner's buzzer beater vs. Kentucky in 1992), no reason Ted Roof's bunch can't hang around. Navy "D" looking to President Bush for reinforcements after alarming attrition, and now Mid option could be minus pilot QB Kaheaku-Enhada--after spraining both ankles vs. Ball State.
(06-Navy 38-DUKE 13...N.25-13 N.70/435 D.33/113 D.15/22/0/181 N.2/5/0/32 N.3 D.1)
(06-Navy -10' 38-13 05-Navy -6 28-21 04-NAVY -7' 27-12...SR: Navy 19-12-5)
Baylor 28 - BUFFALO 26--Baylor QB Syzmanski (11 TDP last two weeks) developing in spread attack. But Buffalo has taken on tougher opposition (Rutgers, Penn State) and has productive triplets (such as they are) in veteran QB Willy, soph RB Starks, and jr. WR Ernest Jackson (7-114 vs. Nittany Lions). Check the Wall Street Journal for box score of this Bears vs. Bulls battle! (FIRST MEETING)
AKRON 22 - Kent State 21--Akron QB situation improved with lefty Carlton Jackson stepping in and throwing for 200 yds. & 2 TDs and running for 71 yds. & another score. Kent State jr. Julian Edelman is obviously dangerous, as her threw for 305 yds. in last year's meeting. However, Akron played Ohio State and Indiana extremely tough (trailed at Columbus 3-2 at half and were behind Indiana 27-24 with less than 7 min. remaining). Zip NTs Pendleton & Wallace (both 315 lb.) clog middle & allow vet LB crew to seek & destroy Edelman & RB Jarvis.
(06-KENT ST. 37-Akron 15...K.22-16 K.55/156 A.23/73 K.17/21/0/305 A.19/38/0/261 K.1 A.2)
(06-KSU +2' 37-15 05-AKRON -13' 35-3 04-Akron +6' 24-19...SR: Akron 27-20-2)
BOSTON COLLEGE 45 - Army 10--Can classy BC name score vs. outmanned Army? Probably. Will Eagles be compelled to do so after demanding early trio vs. ACC competition? We're not sure. Black Knights flying far the under radar these days and might be minus starting QB Pevoto again. But sources say Stan Brock's "D" not all that bad, and West Point deserved better fate last week at Wake (PR and int. TDs proved costly).
(05-BOSTON COLLEGE -27' 44-7...SR: Boston College 2-0)
COLORADO 31 - Miami-Ohio 15--Not sure young Buffs have the maturity yet to win decisively as substantial favorite. However, Miami being crippled by injuries to star RB Murphy & his backup, as well as on the OL. CU defense not deep, but has quality frontline veterans, and Buffs regained services of RB Charles and frosh WR Josh Smith vs. Fla. State. (FIRST MEETING)
NEBRASKA 40 - Ball State 13--Must look for embarrassed "bully team" Nebraska (4-1 as a double-digit home favorite last 1+Ys) to rebound strongly after being out-rushed in Lincoln 313-31 by No. 1 USC in prime time last week. Respect the QB Nate Davis-RB MiQuale Lewis Ball State offense. But Cardinal defense gave up 521 yds. on the ground in last week's 34-31 OT win at Navy. (FIRST MEETING)
BYU 26 - Air Force 22--Not sure we'll be seeing Mitt Romney making any campaign stops at Provo until BYU eliminates TOs (8 last 2 games) and penalties (25 last 2!) that sidetracked Cougs in losses at UCLA & Tulsa. Meanwhile, AFA sr. QB Carney adjusting seamlessly from option to new-found freedom in 1st-year HC Calhoun's shotgun. Surprising Falcs (wins as dog vs. Utah & TCU) will be in MWC driver's seat with another upset!
(06-Byu 33-A. FORCE 14...B.22-16 A.49/190 B.34/153 B.23/31/0/258 A.4/10/1/39 B.0 A.1)
(06-Byu -9' 33-14 05-BYU -6' 62-41 04-Byu +2 41-24...SR: BYU 21-6)
UCLA 28 - Washington 19--Which one of these humbled Pac-10 entries can bounce off the deck, a la Floyd Patterson? We'll see. Ballyhooed RS frosh QB Locker and U-Dub's new spread option hit speed bump vs. gnarly Ohio State, and after humiliating loss at Utah, Bruins have redemption and revenge motivation working for them.
(06-WASH. 29-Ucla 19...W.14-13 U.34/143 W.27/49 W.18/29/1/200 U.18/31/2/135 W.3 U.0)
(06-WASH. +3 29-19 05-UCLA -21' 21-17 04-Ucla P 37-31...SR: UCLA 35-29-2)
ALABAMA 30 - Georgia 22--Prefer to lay smallish number with Bama squad that displayed great determination and grit in thrlling, last-second 41-38 victory vs. Arkansas. Look for Tide's accurate QB J.P. Wilson to continue to work play-action to stellar WRs Hall (just became Tide's all-time leading pass catcher), K. Brown & late-blooming sr. Caddell (9 catches vs. Hogs) vs. soph-laden UGA 2ndary. With rebuilt OL not fully-synchronized, Dawgs won't run as effectively as Arkansas. And doubt UGA's still-developing QB Stafford makes many big, vertical plays vs. Nick Saban's well-designed 3-deep zone.
(DNP...SR: Alabama 35-24-4)
Florida 41 - MISSISSIPPI 13--Although Florida has dropped 7 straight as road chalk, look for highly-explosive Gators (56 ppg) to break that streak vs. outmanned Ole Miss squad unable to cope with Vandy's mobile QB Nickson (200 YP, 78 YR) in 31-17 loss week ago. UF's scintillating soph QB Tebow (74%, 192 YR so far), who has his own website, is licking his chops. Meanwhile the rapidly-jelling Gator defense (held Tennessee to meager 37 YR; collected 2 ints.) frustrates choppy Rebel attack that owns fewer big-play weapons that Vols. Speed kills. (DNP...SR: Mississippi 11-9-1)
OHIO STATE 42 - Northwestern 13--Not too interested in backing Northwestern crew coming off an embarrassing loss to lowly Duke, expecially if Wildcat ace RB Tyrell Sutton isn't 100% (sat out Saturday with ankle injury). Ohio State took care of business at Washington, as QB Boeckman avoided interceptions, while NU QB C.J. Bacher threw two away against the Blue Devils. Buckeye A-A LB Laurinaitis had two picks at Seattle and is off to a great start. OSU intensity rises for Big Ten opener.
(06-Ohio St. 54-N'WSTRN 10...O.22-17 O.44/231 N.24/68 N.21/36/2/229 O.14/24/1/194 O.1 N.3)
(06-Osu -22' 54-10 05-OSU -19 48-7 04-NWU +11 33-27 (OT)...SR: Ohio State 57-14-1)
Penn State 27 - MICHIGAN 20--Penn State stepping up in class after handling three lighter-weight foes. Michigan reached back for superior effort against Notre Dame, but Penn State QB Morelli and RB Scott will pose much more of a challenge for Michigan defense than did ND true frosh QB Clausen and the non-existent Irish running game.
(06-Mich. 17-PENN ST. 10...M.16-11 M.33/116 P.25/M14 P.17/31/0/200 M.15/30/0/196 M.0 P.1)
(06-Michigan -5 17-10 05-MICHIGAN -3' 27-25...SR: Michigan 9-3)
OKLAHOMA STATE 30 - Texas Tech 29--TT finally moving up in class following victories over SMU, UTEP & Rice. And things often don't go so swimmingly for Red Raider offense (QB Harrell 14 TDP, WR Crabtree 38 recs. TY!) on the Big XII road (TT 6-6 SU L3Ys). OSU unlikely to repeat its 5-giveaway gift in last week's uninspired 41-23 loss at Troy. Cowboys also own fine offensive talent.
(06-TEX. TECH 30-Ok. St. 24...O.24-19 O.50/221 T.17/81 T.28/44/0/353 O.13/34/1/164 T.1 O.0)
(06-TECH -6 30-24 05-OSU +23 24-17 04-TECH -4' 31-15...SR: Texas Tech 20-11-3)
Michigan State 27 - NOTRE DAME 19--Notre Dame appears to have sunk to depths not reached since the days of Gerry Faust. Irish haven't scored an offensive touchdown and have allowed 23 sacks, contributing to the team's 119th-ranked rushing game. Tough-talking Charlie Weis' "back to training camp" speech and Sunday practice will grab his players' attention, and oddsmakers may have overadjusted ratings of both of these teams. TV--NBC
(06-N. Dame 40-MICH. ST. 37...M.18-13 M.43/248 N.17/47 N.20/36/1/319 M.11/23/2/140 N.1 M.1)
(06-Und -3 40-37 05-Msu +5' 44-41 (OT) 04-Und -3 31-24...SR: Notre Dame 44-25-1)
UCF 35 - Memphis 23--Spread rising after UCF gave national power Texas all it could handle in Knights' first game at their brand-new on-campus stadium. Memphis QB Hankins (5 ints. first 2 games) is dangerous, but frequently tries to force ball into tight coverage. Star jr. RB Kevin Smith (366 YR & 4 TDs first 2 games) & improving UCF defense enough to get host its first win at spiffy new Bright House digs.
(06-Ucf 26-MEMPHIS 24...U.23-18 U.44/148 M.19/78 U.19/28/0/319 M.28/43/0/287 U.0 M.0)
(06-Ucf -2' 26-24 05-UCF +1' 38-17...SR: UCF 2-1)
Georgia Tech 21 - VIRGINIA 20--Cavaliers' QB rotation of scrambling soph Sewell & touted true frosh pocket passer Lalich (combined for just 447 YP in first 3 games) not very dynamic, but not making major mistakes (0 ints. last 2) either. If that duo doesn't get rattled by Tech blitzes, emerging jr. RB Peerman (323 YR last 2 games) & solid stop unit keep UVa in hunt whole way.
(06-GA. TECH 24-Va. 7...G.14-9 G.38/105 V.23/51 G.12/21/0/230 V.15/31/2/115 G.1 V.1)
(06-TECH -17 24-7 05-VA. -3' 27-17 04-Va. -5' 30-10...SR: EVEN 14-14-1)
Colorado State 31 - HOUSTON 30--Host Cougars own most dangerous weapon on field in quick-striking sr. RB Alridge (429 total yards & 4 TDs in first 2 games). Still, QB experience edge belongs to rested Rams (extra week of prep) & savvy sr. Hanie (530 YP & 4 TDP on 71% first 2 games), who now has strong ground support with return of thumping all-conf. RB Bell (missed LY with knee injury). (DNP...SR: Houston 1-0)
CALIFORNIA 34 - Arizona 23--Cal's chilling, Mike Tyson-in-his-prime-like KO power understandably causes pause in recommending against Jeff Tedford's bunch, even at hefty prices. And Bears in revenge mode after galling loss at Tucson last November. But fact is that Cal about as reliable lately as a late-career Tyson when laying double digits (1-11-1 last 13 in role!). UA erratic, but QB Tuitama (8 TDP last 2) getting a feel for new Cat spread.
(06-ARIZ. 24-Cal. 20...C.14-13 C.23/106 A.33/60 C.17/36/3/250 A.17/34/0/202 A.0 C.0)
(06-ARIZ. +13' 24-20 05-CAL. -16 28-0 04-Cal. -22' 38-0...SR: EVEN 12-12-2)
IDAHO 24 - Northern Illinois 21--How many travel agents have had to book a DeKalb-Moscow round trip? Winless NIU having enough problems without odd Kibbie Dome surroundings, as "O" minus catalyst RB Clanton (caddy J. Anderson 168 YR vs. EMU, but lacks Clanton's pop), and QB Nicholson throwing too many picks (7). Meanwhile, new Idaho RS frosh weapons QB Enderle & RB D. Jackson providing vital spark to Vandal "O."
(DNP...SR: EVEN 2-2)
*BOWLING GREEN 45 - Temple 17--Temple managed a cover vs. a disinterested UConn team last week, but it will take more than one or two big plays to get close to revenge-minded Bowling Green. Falcon QB Tyler Sheehan is 11th in the nation in total offense, and he'll remember igniting Temple's only SU win in last 27 games with his 2 ints. in last season's match against the Owls.
(06-TEMPLE 28-B. Green 14...B.27-12 B.46/249 T.28/94 T.10/13/2/162 B.19/36/2/158 T.0 B.1)
(06-TEMPLE +17 28-14 05-BGU -29 70-7 04-Bgu -7 70-16...SR: Bowling Green 6-3)
*WEST VIRGINIA 37 - East Carolina 17--Marauding Mountaineers strike in frightening flurries, especially now that electric true frosh RB Devine (212 YR on 21 ypc last 2 games!) has joined star duo of QB White & RB Slaton. Can ECU's veteran front 7 (allowed only 153 YR in LY's meeting) hold its own against WV again? Pesky Pirates have covered 11 of last 13 as road dog.
(06-W. Va. 27-E. CAR. 10...W.22-20 W.42/153 E.24/41 E.22/47/2/276 W.17/24/3/216 W.0 E.1)
(06-Wvu -21 27-10 05-WVU -22 20-15 04-WVU -28' 56-23...SR: West Virginia 16-2)
*TOLEDO 31 - Iowa State 30--With these squads off such disparate performances, inclined to take extra points with Toledo squad that's 6-1 as a home dog in Glass Bowl since 2002. Iowa State offense not exactly en fuego (13 ppg; settled for 5 FGs vs. Iowa), and transitioning Cylcones (under rookie HC Chizik) haven't covered as road chalk since 2001! Rocket offense goes in with confidence after generating season-high 43 in OT loss at Ames LY.
(06-IOWA ST. 45-Tol. 43 (OT)...I.24-23 I.41/159 T.27/45 T.39/49/1/367 I.17/26/0/234 I.1 T.1)
(06-IOWA STATE -9 45-43 (OT)...SR: Iowa State 1-0)
*SOUTH FLORIDA 29 - North Carolina 21--Up-and-coming USF had week off to bask in the glow of its victory at Auburn and hosts Big East rival West Va. next week. Matchup of tough-minded Bull QB Grothe vs. very young UNC defense makes upset unlikely, but Butch Davis' baby Heels will go down firing behind cocksure RS frosh QB Yates (66%; 3 TDP in each of first 3 games).
(06-S. Fla. 37-N. CAR. 20...S.23-18 S.47/234 N.39/168 S.15/22/0/183 N.9/26/2/117 S.2 N.0)
(06-South Florida -3 37-20...SR: South Florida 1-0)
*Maryland 23 - WAKE FOREST 21--Defending ACC champ Wake got off the schneid with ho-hum home win over Army last week. And WF starting QB Skinner (missed last 2 games) might be back. Still, Deacons (covered just 4 of last 25 as favorite!) have been MAJOR money-burner as chalk. New Maryland QB Steffy's versatility helping tepid Terrapin attack generate a little more heat.
(06-W. For. 38-MARY. 24...W.22-19 W.57/296 M.33/194 M.14/26/3/182 W.10/13/1/125 W.0 M.0)
(06-Wfu +1' 38-24 05-Mary. +2 22-12 04-MARY. -5' 13-7...SR: Maryland 40-14-1)
*Clemson 35 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 16--Key early injuries undermining new Wolfpack HC Tom O'Brien's hopes for quick turnaround at Raleigh. Meanwhile, Clemson's new jr. QB Cullen Harper (80% & 8 TDP last 2 games!) making teams pay dearly for crowding line of scrimmage against dangerous RBs J. Davis & Spiller--something LY's Tiger triggerman Proctor couldn't do. Clemson has covered 3 straight at State, while Wolfpack now 1-8 vs. spread last 9.
(06-CLEM. 20-N. Car. St. 14...C.18-16 C.39/223 N.45/178 C.15/24/2/146 N.10/25/2/95 C.1 N.0)
(06-CLEM. -17' 20-14 05-Clem. +4' 31-10 04-CLEM. +1 26-20...SR: Clemson 48-26-1)
*CINCINNATI 38 - Marshall 13--Enthusiastic new Cincy HC Kelly has quickly re-energized Bearcats, who've mauled their first 3 foes TY by a combined 140-16! Poor-traveling Marshall (just 2-15 vs. spread last 17 away from home) next in line for a beating. Speedy Cincy defense already has 17 takeaways!
(04-Cincinnati -1' 32-14 (Fort Worth Bowl)...SR: Cincinnati 6-3-1)
*ARKANSAS 37 - Kentucky 34--In an SEC clash featuring offensive fireworks deluxe, willing to "take" with surging Kentucky (won 8 of last 9; only loss by 5 at Tennessee), brimming with confidence following 40-34 upset vs. heated rival L'Ville. Sure, Arkansas' Heisman candidate RB McFadden & his sidekick F. Jones will run for a ton, but Wildcats deadeye 6-5 sr. QB Woodson (68%, 257 passes without an int., 14 shy of Bowl Subdivision record) and his fastbreaking, balanced, high-octane attack (RB Little has 388 YR, 7.5 ypc) able to trade blows all the way. (DNP...SR: Kentucky 3-2)
*AUBURN 37 - New Mexico State 13--After facing 3 quality defenses, believe Tigers "smashmouth" tactics will eventually wear down a soft NMS defensive unit that gave up 44 (at New Mexico) in only road game to date. Auburn's fast, dual threat 6-2 frosh QB Burns (87 YR vs. Miss. State), who replaced struggling vet Cox week ago, uncorks attack running the option. And Aggies productive QB Hollbrook, who has lit up the offensive-minded WAC, finds no groove vs. swarming, angry SEC defense loaded with more playmakers than he's seen so far. (DNP...SR: Auburn 1-0)
*Connecticut 21 - PITTSBURGH 19--True, Huskies labored in last week's home win over lowly Temple. But insiders say that unimpressive performance due mostly to UConn peeking ahead to its Big East lidlifter. Touted Pitt true frosh RB McCoy (279 YR & 4 TDs on 6.3 ypc last 2 games) is the real McCoy. Prefer Huskies' poised juco QB Lorenzen over shaky Panther RS frosh K. Smith (2 ints., only 85 YP at Mich. State), however.
(06-CONN. 46-Pitt 45 (OT)...C.30-22 C.62/317 P.41/180 P.20/25/0/234 C.20/29/0/164 C.1 P.0)
(06-CONN. +8 46-45 (OT) 05-PITT -12 24-0 04-CONN. -6' 29-17...SR: Connecticut 2-1)
*OHIO 23 - Wyoming 21--After Ohio ran into a buzz saw in Blacksburg, will take any available points with competent Bobcat squad that owns a more diversified offense TY thanks to QB Bower (Illinois transfer). Wyo off emotionally draining effort on Boise State's "blue carpet" (Cowboys trailed 21-0 in 4th), so look for Ohio's star RB McCrae to "get off" after limited to an uncharacteristic 55 yds. in 22 carries at Virginia Tech (Ohio 8-0 when he rushes for 100+ yds.; 0-5 when he doesn't). (FIRST MEETING)
*TEXAS 54 - Rice 10--Texas is not 100% healthy and is blending in several new starters; not on par yet with 2005, 2006 teams. But maybe Longhorns don't have to be after leading Rice 35-0 at the H LY. Owls have declined in first year under new HC Bailiff, losing to Nicholls State, by 25 at Baylor, and 35 vs. Texas Tech. New OL group jelling rapidly for UT.
(06-Texas 52-RICE 7...T.22-11 T.43/330 R.20/M12 R.18/29/0/180 T.10/11/0/163 T.2 R.1)
(06-Texas -32 52-7 05-TEXAS -40' 51-10 04-TEXAS -32 35-13...SR: Texas 67-21-1)
*SOUTHERN CAL 44 - Washington State 23--Sure, Wazzu's upset chances about as likely as Ron Paul getting 2008 GOP nomination. And now that Pete Carroll apparently has his pick of blue-chip RBs to balance SC attack, Trojans look more potent than year ago. But "public team" SC has nonetheless been vulnerable to price inflation since the last days of the Leinart/Bush era. And remember that capable Coug QB Brink (10 TDP already) was throwing in end zone for win at end of game vs. Troy LY. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-S. Cal 28-WASH. ST. 22...W.26-20 S.32/135 W.28/131 W.26/47/1/287 S.23/32/1/269 S.1 W.0)
(06-Usc -16' 28-22 05-USC -29' 55-13 04-Usc -24' 42-12...SR: Southern Cal 54-8-4)
*South Carolina 16 - LSU 23--Loaded & deep LSU admittedly looks as strong as any team in America. But will still back athletic, self-assured USC squad that's covered 7 straight away from Columbia--including upset wins at Tenn., Arkansas, Clemson & near-miss at Florida. 'Cocks 6-3 sr. QB Mitchell now fully operating well-designed "fun and gun" for clever mentor Spurrier, who has saved a few gadget plays for this SEC battle. Whether it's Flynn or Perrilloux in control, Tiger attack showing no drop-off in '07. But more physical, sure-tackling Carolina stop unit has allowed more than 28 just once in last 21 reg.-season games (held Georgia sans a TD for 1st time in 6 yrs.!). Take it, pal.
(DNP...SR: LSU 14-2-1)
*WISCONSIN 24 - Iowa 21--Wisconsin has been less than impressive last two games, as UNLV had the lead with less than 3 mins. remaining and The Citadel threw 4 TD passes. Badger star RB P.J. Hill will find going a bit tougher this week against an aroused Iowa defense allowing just 2.0 ypc. Wisconsin hasn't beaten Iowa by more than 6 points in last 7 meetings, and Hawkeye RBs Young & Sims combining for 149 ypg rushing. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-Wis. 24-IOWA 21...W.16-12 W.44/143 I.19/134 W.17/24/0/228 I.10/31/1/170 W.2 I.0)
(06-Wis. -1' 24-21 05-Iowa +2' 20-10 04-IOWA -3 30-7...SR: EVEN 40-40-2)
*San Jose State 24 - UTAH STATE 20--Difficult to make a case for either of these WAC stragglers. So, which go-against argument is more persuasive? A measured vote for anti-USU angle, as Utags (1-13 last 14) unaccustomed to any success, and QB L. Jackson's confidence lagging after Oklahoma debacle. At least bowl-winning QB Tafralis still on hand for SJSU, which finally won't be outmanned after being outclassed first 3.
(06-Sjs 21-UTAH ST. 14...S.19-16 U.44/156 S.30/123 S.15/28/2/252 U.21/24/0/145 S.2 U.1)
(06-SJS -16 21-14 05-USU -5 24-17...SR: San Jose State 18-10-1)
*TCU 45 - Smu 16--TCU suddenly adjusting its objectives more than the White House is with its Middle East policy (Frogs just went from BCS-hopeful to Las Vegas Bowl-wannabe). But SMU's problems appear far deeper, as disappointing Mustang "D" hasn't even been able to slow modest Sun Belt attacks last two weeks. And TCU has been itching for 2 years to get payback vs. Metroplex rival since SMU dealt Frogs their only loss of '05. Frogs poised RS frosh QB Dalton should destroy Mustang 2ndary that's allowed 1340 YP so far.
(05-SMU +14' 21-10 04-TCU -23 44-0...SR: TCU 40-38-7)
*Purdue 45 - MINNESOTA 38--Realize there's a potentially combustible combination present with Minnesota's pass defense (yielding 431 ypg) and Purdue QB Painter (313 ypg; 13 TD passes). However, feel Gophers capable of trading scores with Boilermakers behind RB Amir Pinnix (5.4 ypc; 4 TDs), soph playmaking WR Decker (19 recs., 3 TDs last 2 games) and maturing RS frosh QB Weber (606 YP, 8 TD passes last 2). CABLE TV--ESPN2
(06-PUR. 27-Minn. 21...M.23-21 M.45/194 P.32/178 P.18/27/0/243 M.21/35/1/227 P.0 M.1)
(06-PURDUE +2' 27-21 05-MINNESOTA -3' 42-35 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 31-29-3)
*Utah 19 - UNLV 18--Perhaps both of these MWC entries have rung false alarms in early action (Utah's romp past UCLA; UNLV's close call vs. Wisconsin). But scouts suggest upgrades along Rebel stop unit are real (LB Bell getting attention from pro scouts). And despite uprising vs. Bruins, Utes not likely to stretch UNLV's "D" as did Colt Brennan did last week if backup QB Grady still at controls (starter B. Johnson has a chance to return).
(06-UTA 45-Unlv 23...Ut.19-17 Ut.34/110 Lv.29/65 Ut.20/24/0/290 Lv.25/35/2/232 Ut.2 Lv.1)
(06-UTAH -21' 45-23 05-Utah -12 42-32 04-UNLV -24 63-28...SR: Utah 11-1)
*Oregon 45 - STANFORD 20--Credit Jim Harbaugh for rediscovering pulse on Farm, but Stanford's version of the West Coast has about as much in common with Oregon's dynamic spread as Elisabeth Hasselbeck has with Rosie O'Donnell. Ducks (47 ppg) at full throttle on attack under creative new o.c. Kelly, who has QB Dixon doing a pretty good Vince Young impression in early going. Note Mike Bellotti has won and covered last 5 in series.
(06-ORE. 48-Stan. 10...O.28-20 O.41/298 S.35/100 O.21/30/0/236 S.20/34/0/224 O.1 S.1)
(06-ORE. -12 48-10 05-Ore. -6' 44-20 04-Ore. +3' 16-13...SR: Stanford 44-25-1)
*ARIZONA STATE 31 - Oregon State 13--Although OSU WR Stroughter (9 catches last week) has returned to active duty, we need more evidence than torch job vs. low-echelon Idaho State to have confidence in Mike Riley's rotating QBs (who tossed 6 picks in previous loss at Cincy). Especially at hostile Tempe, where rejuvenated ASU won first 3 by 27 ppg and should have services of key RB Torain & TE Miller after resting both vs. SDSU. Dennis Erickson not likely to ease up vs. former employer, either.
(06-ORE. ST. 44-Asu 10...O.18-14 O.36/121 A.34/99 O.17/36/0/282 A.9/29/2/124 O.0 A.0)
(06-OSU -2 44-10 05-Asu -6' 42-24 04-ASU -7' 27-14...SR: Arizona State 22-9-1)
ADDED GAMES
KANSAS 44 - Florida International 6--FIU (Bowl Subdivision-leading 15 straight losses) is the last of KU's four, visiting, completely-beatable, non-Big XII foes. Hot Jayhawk QB Todd Reesing now has 10 TDP, while speedy all-league CB Aqib Talib has a TDC as WR in each of the first three games. Panthers producing 6.3 ppg. (FIRST MEETING)
*Troy 40 - LA.-LAFAYETTE 26--After posting 33 ppg vs. heavyweight opposition (Arkansas, Florida, and Ok. State), QB Haugabook and Troy's potent spread could do even more damage in Sun Belt. Meanwhile, erratic ULL QB Desormeaux performed like one of Notre Dame's QBs with 4 picks in Cajuns' 38-17 humiliation vs. McNeese State last week.
(06-TROY 42-La.-Laf. 28...T.19-18 T.39/208 L.38/170 L.16/30/1/230 T.12/19/1/153 T.1 L.0)
(06-TROY P 42-28 05-ULL -3' 31-28 04-Troy -13' 13-10...SR: La.-Lafayette 8-2)
*Florida Atlantic 45 - NORTH TEXAS 35--Possibility of "hangover" a concern for FAU squad celebrating last week's home win over Big Ten rep Minnesota. Still, can't ignore HUGE experience edge venerable Owl HC Schnellenberger enjoys over creative new UNT mentor Dodge, who was on sidelines in high school LY.
(06-Fla. Atl. 17-N. TEX. 16...17-17 N.40/254 F.38/132 F.12/25/0/107 N.11/18/3/84 F.0 N.1)
(06-Fau +5 17-16 05-FAU -3' 26-23 04-Fau +7' 20-13...SR: Florida Atlantic 3-0)
*TENNESSEE 34 - Arkansas State 20--Sure, UT in testy mood following embarrassing 59-20 smashing in "The Swamp." But troubled Vols might still be unable to shake a veteran, well-balanced Arkansas State squad (250 YR, 266 YP vs. SMU), ably led by fiery, mobile, undervalued 6-1 soph QB Leonard (65%), who does business vs. young, injured UT 2ndary ill-supported by a weak pass rush (only 3 sacks so far). Embroiled HC Fulmer just 8-22 as home chalk since '02, while fearless Indians 8-3 as DD dog since '04. (FIRST MEETING)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
INDIANA by 7 over Illinois
CLEMSON by 19 over N. Carolina State
SOUTH CAROLINA Plus over Lsu
TCU by 29 over Smu
posted by phantom
12 replies
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Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!
11 *KANSAS CITY over Minnesota
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS CITY 20 - Minnesota 6
(Sunday, September 23)
Chiefs finally get to play a game at friendly Arrowhead, where they are 12-4
last 16 vs. spread. And there are other pluses as well, with DE Jared Allen
(7.5 sacks LY) returning from two-game suspension, and Larry Johnson now
having two games to get the kinks out following his training-camp salary
holdout. QB Damon Huard played a heady game last week vs. Chicago's tough
defense, with one TDP and another perfect strike nullified by a motion
penalty. Re-acquisition of quick OLB Donnie Edwards gives Chiefs another
blitzer to pair with forceful young veteran Derrick Johnson. K.C. OL
protection held up pretty well vs. Chicago pressure. Meanwhile, Minny QBs
had 5 turnovers at Detroit!
10 *NEBRASKA over Ball State
Late Score Forecast:
*NEBRASKA 41 - Ball State 10
After suffering through a long night of being humiliated by No. 1 USC,
Nebraska will be looking for a whipping boy on whom to take out some
frustration. Ball State is stepping way up in class (faced Mia.-O, E. Mich.
& Navy), and the Falcons will be running into a focused Nebraska team that
has had success as a "bully" recording a 10-3 spread record last 13 laying
double digits. Ball State has suffered key injuries on defense, including
losing leading returning tackler MLB Wendell Brown for the season. Falcon
offensive line starters LT Andre Ramsey and C Dan Gerberry have been playing
through injuries. Ball State yielded 521 rushing yards against Navy, and the
Cornhuskers, who rushed for 413 yards in season-opener against Nevada, will
do similar damage.
10 CONNECTICUT over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
CONNECTICUT 24 - *Pittsburgh 21
Long-time Big East scouts firmly believe oddsmakers are overreacting to last
week's results in posting mediocre Pitt (only 13-13 SU under 3rd-year HC
Wannstedt) more than TD favorite vs. experienced 3-0 UConn. Huskies were
noticeably uninspired in ho-hum 22-17 win vs. Temple, but hard-drivin' HC
Randy Edsall will crack the whip and raise UConn's intensity level in this
key Big East clash. UConn's aggressive front 7 should bottle up Panthers'
main weapon RB McCoy, putting extra pressure on unpolished RS frosh QB K.
Smith (only 85 YP vs. Mich. State), who is running limited set of low-risk
pass plays. Meanwhile, Huskies 6-5 jr. triggerman Lorenzen (Iowa St.
transfer is hitting 68%) has a quality corps of WRs and super-soph RB Donald
Brown (240 YR, 4.6 ypc in 2007; 205 YR & 3 TDs vs. Pitt LY) at his disposal.
10 EAST CAROLINA over *W. Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
EAST CAROLINA 19 - *W. Virginia 31
Sure, it's a little scary to stare straight down the barrel of the loaded
West Virginia gun. Or, in Mountaineers' case, their potent spread option and
game-altering components QB White & RB Slaton. But doubt ECU will blink after
covering big prices vs. similar WVU sides the past two seasons and holding
explosive Mounties to only 153 YR (and less than 4 ypc) in last year's Pirate
cover at Greenville. A similarly quick-footed ECU stop unit should make
White, Slaton, and new threat frosh RB Devine work for their yards and points
again. And along with improved play from emerging QB Pinkney, underrated
Pirates should have more than enough to again stay within hefty impost. Note
that ECU has been a very profitable road dog (10-1 last 11 in role!) since HC
Skip Holtz arrived in '05.
10 *UNLV over Utah
Late Score Forecast:
*UNLV 26 - Utah 24
Utah's righteous 44-6 smashing of UCLA last week has yielded a fluffy
pointspread in this one. And host UNLV will welcome Utah after having to
deal with Hawaii's Colt Brennan and all of his speedy receivers last week.
Remember, the Rebels had Wisconsin down 13-12 with two minutes to play a
couple of weeks ago, when rapidly-developing RS frosh QB Travis Dixon hit 23
of 36 for 258 yards. Utah has lost six starters to injury since the
beginning of the season, although sr. QB Brian Johnson (shoulder separation
on his passing arm) might see some action in this one. Despite their own bad
injury luck first two years under Mike Sanford (former Utah assistant under
Urban Meyer), hard-fighting Rebels 7-4 as a home dog in his tenure.
TOTALS: UNDER (43.5) in San Diego-Green Bay game-Prideful Charger defense
steaming after big loss at N.E.; Packers good on defense, not always so good
on offense...OVER (45.5) in Tennessee-New Orleans game-Drew Brees and Saints'
offense due for an outburst in first home game; Titans "over" 5 of last 6 on
the road.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): ALABAMA (-3.5) vs. Georgia-Bulldogs
rebuilding in several departments and playing first game on road; Nick
Saban's zone-blitz defense will often be a puzzle for strong-armed QB
Stafford...BOWLING GREEN (-20.5) vs. Temple-Well-rested Falcons well remember
LY's upset at Temple; 6-3 soph QB Sheehan running the BG offense will fine
precision and confidence...AUBURN (-17) vs. New Mexico State-Aggies stepping
WAY up in class; Tommy Tuberville needs a big win after last week's home loss
to Mississippi State...SAN FRANCISCO (+9) at Pittsburgh-Niners' defense
substantially improved due to new additions; Frank Gore's presence allows
S.F. to play conservatively on offense...TENNESSEE (+4) at New Orleans
(Monday Night)-Saints eager to rally, but improved Titans a noteworthy 12-2
last 14 as an underdog!
posted by phantom
Sept. 18 2007 2:57pm -
0 likes
Pointwise
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CINCINNATI over Marshall RATING: 1 48-14
BYU over Air Force RATING: 1 47-22
OHIO STATE over Northwestern RATING: 2 41-10
NAVY over Duke RATING: 3 38-14
GEORGIA over Alabama RATING: 4 27-24
PITTSBURGH over UConn RATING: 4 27-13
WISCONSIN over Iowa RATING: 5 31-10
LOUISVILLE over Syracuse RATING: 5 67-13
NFL KEY RELEASES
TENNESSEE over New Orleans RATING: 2 23-20
CLEVELAND over Oakland RATING: 3 23-20
CAROLINA over Atlanta RATING: 4 20-10
CINCINNATI over Seattle RATING: 4 31-24
PITTSBURGH over San Francisco RATING: 5
posted by phantom
Sept. 18 2007 2:57pm -
0 likes
marc lawrence trends
College Football 2-Minute Handicap
Thursday, Sep 20
Texas A&M 5-2 Game Four… 4-1 as dogs 4 < pts… 0-6 L6 A vs non conf opp… 1-9 Weekday RG… 1-6 in 1st RG
MIAMI-FLA 7-1 as non conf HF’s < 9 pts… 1-4 on Weekdays… 1-5 H Game Four
Friday, Sep 21
Oklahoma SERIES: Visitor 4-1… 5-0 as non conf RF’s 10 > pts… 6-1 A Game Four… 8-3 in 1st of BB RG… 1-3 in 1st RG… 1-3 bef Colorado… 3-8 off 3 SU wins of 21 > pts
TULSA 4-1 vs undefeated opp (Gm 3 >)… 4-12 in 2nd of BB HG… 2-5 H Game Three… 3-7 L10 vs Big 12
Saturday, Sep 22
Syracuse SERIES: Dog 4-0… 7-1 Game Four… 4-1 as conf dogs 16 > pts… 2-11 in 1st of BB RG… 1-5 in 1st conf gm
LOUISVILLE 5-0 after Kentucky… 4-1 Game Four… 11-4 conf favs > 15 pts… 1-3 in 1st conf gm
Army SERIES: Visitor 5-0… 3-0 A Game Four… 4-1 as dogs 28 > pts… 10-3 as dogs in 2nd of BB RG… 1-4 after Wake Forest… 3-6 vs ACC
BOSTON COLL 3-0 after Ga Tech… 6-1 in 1st of BB HG… 6-1 vs non conf off 3+ conf gms… 9-3 as non conf favs 20 > pts… 3-8 Game Four
Ball St 4-1 in 2nd of BB RG… 3-1 Game Four… 1-5 as non conf dogs 24 > pts… 2-6 A vs non conf opp
NEBRASKA 12-3 off SU home L… 11-3 Game Four… 3-8 bef Iowa St… 3-7 a non conf favs 24 > pts
Washington 4-1 as conf dogs 7 > pts… 5-2 as dogs vs conf opp w/ revenge… 1-6 in 1st conf gm… 2-8 Game Four
UCLA SERIES: 7-2 L9 / 4-1 H… 8-1 as HF’s 10 < pts… 7-2 favs in Game Four… 6-2 w/ conf revenge… 5-2 bef RG vs Arizona St
Georgia SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-1 A… 3-1 in 1st conf RG… 0-5 before Mississippi… 1-3 Game Four… 1-3 A off unlined gm… 2-5 as conf dogs 7 < pts
ALABAMA 1-6 as conf HF’s 7 < pts… 1-4 in 2nd of BB HG… 1-4 H off BB SU conf W… 1-3-1 after Arkansas… 1-3 Game Four
Florida SERIES: Visitor 5-1… 4-1 A Game Four… 0-5 after Tennessee… 1-6 A vs conf opp… 1-6 as DD RF’s… 2-5 before HG vs Auburn
MISSISSIPPI 5-1 dogs after Vanderbilt… 10-3 as conf HD’s… 0-4 before Georgia… 1-5 Game Four
Northwestern 14-0 before Michigan… 7-3 A off BB HG vs conf opp… 2-6 as conf dogs 15 > pts
OHIO ST SERIES: 5-1 L6… 6-1 as conf favs 10-20 pts… 4-1 H Game Four… 4-1 before Minnesota… 8-2 vs conf opp w/ revenge
Penn St 4-1 w/ conf revenge… 8-3 A off BB HG… 0-9 in 1st conf gm… 0-7 Game Four
MICHIGAN SERIES: 6-2 L8… 7-3 H vs undefeated opp (Gm 4>)… 0-4-1 Game Four… 0-3-1 in 1st conf gm
Texas Tech SERIES: 10-2-1 L13… 7-1 after Rice… 1-5 Game Four… 2-8 as RF’s 5 < pts
OKLAHOMA ST 5-0 as conf HD’s 6 < pts… 3-1 H Game Four… 1-3 in 1st conf gm
Michigan St SERIES: 8-2-1 L11 / 5-0 A… 3-0-1 Game Four… 0-6 before Wisconsin… 1-8 favs w/ revenge… 1-5 as non conf RF’s… 1-5 off 3 straight HG
NOTRE DAME 6-1 before Purdue… 4-1-1 Game Four… 5-2 as HD’s vs Big 10 opp… 2-10 H vs opp w/ revenge… 2-6 after Michigan
Georgia Tech 0-7-1 Game Four… 1-5 as conf RF’s 5 > pts… 4-11 as favs < 10 pts vs conf opp w/ revenge
VIRGINIA SERIES: 3-0-1 L4 / 4-0-1 L5 H… 12-2 H w/ conf revenge… 8-1 as conf HD’s… 0-4-1 Game Four… 2-6 off BB road W… 4-10 after N Carolina
Arizona 3-0 as conf RD’s 14 > pts… 4-1 before HG vs Wash St… 4-18 vs conf opp w/ revenge
CALIFORNIA SERIES: 3-1 L4… 3-0 in 1st conf gm… 0-5 as DD conf HF’s… 1-5 in 2nd of BB HG… 1-4 favs Game Four
E Carolina 5-1 w/ non conf revenge… 7-2 in 1st of BB RG… 11-4 after S Mississippi… 1-4 A Game Four… 2-8 A vs Big East
W VIRGINIA SERIES: 3-1 L4 H… 4-1 as non conf HF’s 14 > pts… 0-3-1 off Weekday gm… 1-6 Game Four… 2-5 after Maryland
Clemson SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-0 L3 A… 4-1 off 3 straight HG… 3-1 A Game Four… 0-5 favs vs conf opp w/ rev… 1-7 as conf RF’s…
NC STATE 6-1 as dogs w/ conf revenge… 4-1 Game Four… 1-6 off SU W 21 > pts… 2-8 in 2nd of BB HG… 2-6 as conf HD’s 7 > pts…
Rice SERIES: Visitor 4-0-1… 4-0 A w/ non conf revenge… 5-1 after Texas Tech… 0-3 Game Four… 1-4 as dogs 28 > pts… 2-5 off BB DD SU L
TEXAS 5-1 as DD favs vs non conf opp w/ rev… 7-2 non conf favs 28 > pts… 3-1 before Kansas St… 5-2 Game Four
Wash St 6-0 in 1st of BB RG... 6-0 before Arizona… 6-2 w/ conf revenge… 1-7 as conf dogs 15 > pts… 1-4 Game Four
USC SERIES: 3-1 L4… 3-1 Game Four… 11-4 H vs conf opp w/ revenge… 1-4 before RG vs Washington… 1-3 in 1st conf gm
S Carolina 5-1 A before BB HG… 4-1 Game Four… 4-1 as conf dogs 15 > pts… 1-5 before HG vs Miss St
LSU SERIES: 2-0 L2… 5-0 Game Four… 5-1 in 3rd straight HG… 1-4 as conf HF’s 15 > pts… 2-4 off BB SU W 21 > pts… 3-10 before Tulane
Iowa SERIES: 4-1 L5… 4-0 after RG vs Iowa St… 6-2 as conf dogs 8 > pts… 0-5 dogs 10 < pts in Game Four… 0-4 w/ conf revenge
WISCONSIN 3-0 before Michigan St… 6-1 in 2nd of BB HG… 6-1 H vs conf opp w/ revenge… 3-6 favs in Game Four
Oregon SERIES: 5-0 L5 / 5-1 A… 4-0 as RF’s 12 > pts… 6-1 Game Four… 1-4 L4 as conf RF’s… 1-4 before HG vs California… 1-3 after Fresno St
STANFORD 6-2 dogs in Game Four… 8-3 in 2nd of BB HG… 5-2 before Arizona St… 0-4 as DD HD’s… 1-5 w/ conf revenge
ADDED GAMES
Arkansas St 3-0 Game Four… 3-0 before La Monroe… 5-1 as non conf dogs 14 > pts… 5-2 dogs in 1st of BB RG… 1-5 off BB HG
TENNESSEE 1-6 Game Four… 1-6 before Georgia… 1-4 after RG vs Florida… *3-7 as non conf favs 14 > pts
NFL 2-Minute Handicap
Sunday, Sep 23
Indianapolis 6-0 A w/rev vs opp off DD Su loss…9-1 RF’s w/rev…SEPT: 10-2 RF’s…11-3 aft Titans…10-3 off div RG…8-3 RF’s off SU loss…0-5 RF’s off SU div win…DUNGY: 9-1 off SU fav loss w/rev
HOUSTON SERIES: 3-1 L4…5-1 dogs vs div opp w/rev…0-8 when W/L record is .500 >…0-3 H Game Three
San Diego 6-0 bef Chiefs…63-5 when win SU A…1-4 O/U Game Three
GREEN BAY SERIES: 4-0 L4…13-3 vs non conf opp off BB SU wins…6-72 when lose SU…1-7 H vs non conf opp…MCCARTHY: 0-4 H vs .500 > opp
Minnesota SEPT: 6-1 dogs off div game…0-10 A vs non div opp bef div HG…CHILDRESS: 1-4 off div game vs non div opp
KANSAS CITY 13-2 Game Three…19-6 Home Opener…
Detroit 0-7 off SU fav loss vs < .500 opp…2-11 A vs non div opp off BB SU losses…2-7 Game Three
PHILADELPHIA SERIES: 4-0 L4 / 3-0 L3 H…6-1 Game Three
Buffalo 6-0 in 1st of BB div games…2-9 Game Three…1-4 A w/rev off DD SU loss… JAURON: 9-1 as dog off BB SU losses vs opp off SU win
NEW ENGLAND 4-0 as DD favs off SUATS win vs opp off BB SU losses…10-1 off non div SUATS win vs div opp off SUATS loss…8-1 DD HF’s vs opp off BB SU losses…14-2 off SU win vs div opp off BB SU losses…SEPT: 6-2 vs < .500 w/rev…SEPT: 1-5 off BB SU wins…5-1 O/U Game Three
Miami 5-0 A aft allowing 28 > pts…9-1 dogs 6 > pts…8-1 off DD ATS loss vs div opp off DD ATS loss…8-2 div dogs in 1st 3 games of season…6-2 Game Three w/rev…2-9 if < .500 dogs off non conf game vs div opp
NY JETS SERIES: 7-0 L7 / 7-1-1 L9 H…5-1 favs 6 > pts…SEPT: 1-7 favs off SU loss vs non div opp.. MANGINI: 5-1 fav…6-1 off SU loss…9-3 O/U Game Three
San Francisco 0-8 off BB SU wins vs .500 > opp off DD SU win…0-7 A off BB ATS wins vs non div opp…1-7 off BB SU wins vs .500 > opp…2-7 when lose SU…4-12 A vs opp off BB SU wins…1/4 O/U A Game Three
PITTSBURGH SERIES: 1-4 L5 / 1-3 L4 H… SEPT: 1-12 vs non div opp off SUATS win
Arizona 2-10 as non conf dogs of 3 > pts…18-81 when lose SU…2-13 O/U Game Three
BALTIMORE 8-0 H off BB overs vs non div opp off BB SU losses…SEPT: 13-3 HF’s…8-2 vs opp of SU dog win…BILLICK: 15-3 H off non div game vs < .500 opp…1-8 O/U Game Three
St. Louis 12-3 after Niners…4-1 A Game Three…3-17 if < .500 off SU fav loss vs opp w/rev
TAMPA BAY SERIES: 5-1 L6 / 3-0 L3 H… 8-2 Game 3…11-3 HF’s 3 < pts
Jacksonville SEPT: 8-1 vs non div opp off SUATS win…2-7 RD’s 8 < pts vs opp off BB SU wins…1-4 O/U Game Three
DENVER SERIES: 4-1 L5… 16-4 SUATS H off H vs non div opp off win
Cincinnati SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-1 L4 A…2-7 Game Three…SEPT: 1-7 dog vs opp w/rev
SEATTLE SEPT: 12-2 off SU loss vs non div opp…8-2 Game Three…0-7 fav vs opp of DD SU win...2-10 off 1st loss of season
Cleveland SERIES: 3-0 L3…7-1 Game Three… 3-8 A when O/U line 36 < pts…SEPT: 4-14 UNDER after allowing 21 > pts
OAKLAND 6-1 Game Three off div opp…63-13 when win SU…1-11 fav w/rev off SU loss
Carolina SERIES: 4-1 L5/3-0 l3 A… 9-3 A vs opp w/rev…7-3 bef div HG
ATLANTA 8-2 dogs off SU loss…1-6 Game Three…SEPT: 1-5 vs div opp off BB SU wins
NY Giants SU loser 3-15 Game Three… COUGHLIN: 20-5 vs opp off SU dog win
WASHINGTON SERIES: 1-3 L4… 2-7 H Game Three
Dallas 0-10 A off DD ATS win vs opp off DD SU win…12-96 when lose SU… 1-6 Game Three vs opp off SU win…3-14 A off SU win 14 > pts…PHILLIPS: 8-0 off non div game vs opp off DD SU win
CHICAGO SERIES: 3-1 L4 H…7-0 vs non div opp off SUATS win…SEPT: 1-9 vs opp off BB SU wins…1-5 Game Three vs opp off BB SU wins
Sunday, Sep 23
Tennessee SERIES: 3-1-1… 8-1 dog after Colts…7-1-1 away after Colts… 2-7 as Monday night dogs
N ORLEANS 14-7-1 off BB losses vs AFC opp (7-2 fav)… 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS L8 Monday nights
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2007 2:39pm -
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Sports Reporter
Best Bets:
BYU
Arkansas
SMU
Purdue
North Texas
Super Best Bet: (NFL) Pittsburgh
Best Bet: Kansas City
Best Bet: Miami
Recommended: Tampa Bay, Chicago
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2007 2:40pm -
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Marc Lawrence's Playbook
5* Navy
4* Connecticut
3* Northwestern
Upset Special: Iowa
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2007 2:40pm -
0 likes
Winning Points
4* Nebraska
3* Army
2* Colorado
2* Michigan State
2* BYU
2* East Carolina
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2007 2:40pm -
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Power Sweep and Power Plays
4* Florida Atlantic
3* Purdue
3* BYU
2* Arizona State
2* Notre Dame
2* New Mexico State
Dog: Toledo (+)
POWER PLAYS 4*'s
4* Boston College (w/line less than -31)
4* Notre Dame
4* Colorado State
4* Toledo
4* NC State
4* New Mexico State
4* Wyoming
4* Purdue
4* Oregon
4* Kansas
4* Florida Atlantic
posted by phantom
Sept. 19 2007 2:41pm -
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NFL Week 3: Your team is 2-0! What’s next?
By: Steve Makinen - StatFox
Published: 9/20/2007 at 11:00:00 PM
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In my continuing series analyzing angles for each of the various weeks in the NFL season, I decided to look at the fortunes of teams that are 2-0 headed into Week 3 of the schedule. On average, there are just less than seven teams per season that win their opening two contests. There are 10 this year, and 15-year history shows that 27% of these teams will fall in Week 3. Will your team be one of them? Are they worth wagering on? If so, when are the best spots to either fade or follow these clubs? These are just some of the points I plan to reveal in my Week 3 unbeaten teams study.
Some of the most important concepts to understand about the unbeaten teams heading into their Week 3 games are: 1) Are they at home or on the road, 2) Are they playing an opponent that is also playing well or struggling, 3) Is the unbeaten team thrashing opponents or squeaking out games, and 4) Has the undefeated club won with offense, defense, or both so far?
I’ll reveal some very successful historical patterns that have formed for all four of those important concepts later, but for now, here are some of the basic records on 2-0 teams, based on where they are playing and the record of the opponent they are facing.
· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams are 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS (64%)
· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams are 12-10 SU & 14-8 ATS (64%)
· 2-0 HOME teams facing 0-2 ROAD teams are 9-0 SU & 4-4-1 ATS (50%), with an average line of –11.4.
· 2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams are 17-5 SU but just 9-13 ATS (41%).
· In games matching unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams, the HOME teams hold a 10-8 SU & 11-7 ATS (61%)
If you add up all the records of the trends noted just above, you’ll find that road teams cover the spread in 56% of games involving an undefeated team. This can be explained by the logic that the oddsmakers are counting on home-field advantage to make the difference in these higher profile games, thus giving the hosts a little extra respect on the pointspread. Think of it like this…if an unbeaten team is coming back home to play a game, public perception would typically tell you that the home team should win again. On the flip side, when said undefeated team hits the road at 2-0, the majority of the fan population would tend to believe that the chances of that team losing its game are good, particularly if it is the teams’ first road game.
With 56% of these games being won ATS by road teams, and three of our basic five angles producing spread success rates of better than 60%, it afforded me the opportunity to apply numerous tighteners to the trends, thus generating even higher winning percentages. The best results from that tightening process are listed below. Use these trends to apply to your own handicapping routine on Sunday and Monday night.
· 2-0 HOME teams taking on 0-2 ROAD teams, when favored by 10 points or less, are 4-0 SU & ATS (100%).
Analysis: Oddsmakers clearly aren’t giving enough consideration to the momentum generated by the unbeaten and winless teams in the first two weeks. Games that could be accompanied by double-digit spreads are not and home teams have capitalized at a 4-0 clip.
Plays for ’07: WASHINGTON
· 2-0 HOME teams facing 1-1 ROAD teams, when favored by 6 points or less, are just 3-8 ATS (27%).
Analysis: There seems to be a good reason that these 2-0 hosts are only favored by small margins over their 1-1 opponents. Most likely, these home teams either aren’t as good as their 2-0 start, or their road opponent might have lost one of its two games either in heartbreaking fashion or to another elite club. In any case, it is the road teams that hold the edge in this scenario.
Plays for ’07: AGAINST GREEN BAY, DENVER
· In battles between unbeaten HOME and ROAD teams in Week 3, the HOME team is 5-1 SU & ATS (100%) when favored by 5-points or more.
Analysis: Exactly the opposite of the situation described just above. In this case, it is the 2-0 road team that may be undeserving of its undefeated record. Oddsmakers have perceptively picked up on it, installing them as sizeable underdogs for the showdown. These games clearly turn out to be better on paper than on the field, with the hosts winning five of six games by an average score of 24.8-9.5. With such a low total score for the road teams in these games, keep an eye on the UNDERs as well.
Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH
· The HOME team holds a 2-0 SU & ATS (100%) edge in Week 3 showdowns between undefeated inter-conference opponents.
Analysis: Not only do the hosts hold an edge in games with undefeated teams and large pointspreads, they also receive a boost from being at hoe again opponents from the opposite conference. Unfamiliarity would figure to be the reason behind this, as the road teams are putting their undefeated marks on the line against teams they know little about.
Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH
· In divisional showdowns between unbeaten teams in Week 3, the HOME team is 6-4 & ATS (60%).
Analysis: I’m a firm believer that home field advantage means the most in division games, since it is that extra edge that teams rely on when game plans are well known. These teams are well familiar with one another, so scheming doesn’t have as much of an impact as simple execution and motivation. Home field advantage is one of the more prominent motivating factors.
Plays for ’07: HOUSTON
· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 0-2 HOME teams, when playing as an underdog, are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS (83%).
Analysis: Albeit due to the desperation level of the home team, or the lack of respect generated by the visitors in their opening two wins, oddsmakers just don’t see enough sometimes to make these unbeaten road teams favorites in the Week 3 game. Clearly that has been a mistake. With an 83% ATS success rate in the last 15 seasons, digging out these teams is well worth the effort if any qualify.
Plays for ’07: DETROIT
· 2-0 ROAD teams taking on 1-1 HOME teams, when playing as an underdog, are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS (77%).
Analysis: The success rate for unbeaten road teams playing at 1-1 home opponents is even better than that against winless foes. With an 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS record, it has been nearly automatic that these road teams win outright. Keep a close eye on the NFL Week 3 schedule in 2007, since prior to the second week action, there were nine teams that won on opening weekend that will be on the road for these Sunday and Monday games.
Plays for ’07: DALLAS
· 2-0 HOME teams are 13-8 ATS (62%) when the wagering action coming in moves the line more in their favor.
Analysis: If a home team’s line moves from –6 to –7 in a given week, it is assumed that the public, or sharps in some cases, is backing them enough for oddsmakers to move the line in hopes of drawing action the other way. When the so-called betting public backs these home undefeated teams in Week 3, they beat the number at a 13-8 rate.
Plays for ’07: PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, NEW ENGLAND
· 2-0 HOME teams are just 9-11 ATS (45%) when the wagering action favors the road teams.
Analysis: The betting public seems to have a good feel for these undefeated home team games in Week 3, beating the books on both sides of the ledger. The bottom line is this…if undefeated home teams are playing in Week 3, history says to follow the money.
Plays for ’07: AGAINST GREEN BAY
· In games concerning 2-0 ROAD teams, when the betting public backs the home team, the road clubs are 8-9 ATS. When the line move favors the road team, the visitors are 9-11 ATS.
Analysis: While not overly successful records, these trends would suggest that any type of line move involving games with 2-0 road teams would indicate to play on the hosts. If I could come up with any type of reasonable explanation for it I would. Next…
Plays for ’07: WATCH LINE MOVES
· 2-0 ROAD teams allowing more than 15 PPG in their first two contests are 13-5 ATS (72%) in their Week 3 games.
Analysis: This trend is somewhat contrarian in nature, but come to think of it, most good systems are too. Undefeated road teams allowing more than 15 PPG are at the bottom end of the defensive scale. Oddsmakers don’t hold them in the same regard as they do those teams that won with early defensive domination. Still, they are unbeaten and tend to stay so after this game.
Plays for ’07: DETROIT, DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO
· 2-0 ROAD teams allowing less than 10 PPG in their first two contests are just 7-7 ATS (50%) in their Week 3 games.
Analysis: While this is not a trend that will give you any type of advantage over “the manâ€, I listed it simply so that you could see the difference in the success rates of the strong defensive teams and the rest. The trend above was 13-5 ATS, this one is just 7-7 ATS. In which one do think oddsmakers are giving more credit to the unbeaten road team?
Plays for ’07: NONE
· 2-0 ROAD teams scoring more than 25 PPG in their first two contests are 10-4 ATS (71%) as underdogs in Week 3.
Analysis: In my own handicapping routine, I love looking for underdogs that can score points. They are the most-lively type of underdogs, the kind that can keep coming at the favorites, regardless of how far they are behind. If you’re lucky enough to pick up on an undefeated road dog this weekend, grab it. There is on average about one opportunity per season.
Plays for ’07: DALLAS, INDIANAPOLIS, DETROIT
· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by less than 3 PPG are just 6-6 SU & 4-7 ATS (36%) in Week 3.
Analysis: Teams winning their games by less than a field goal margin per contest are living on the edge. In Week 3, they fall off that edge, at least in terms of the pointspread, converting just 36% of the time. Half of the 12 home teams coming into this scenario lost their games outright as well.
Plays for ’07: AGAINST DENVER
· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20 PPG are 8-4 SU but just 4-8 ATS (33%) in Week 3.
Analysis: This is the classic example of what makes the NFL tough to beat on a consistent basis. A trap of all traps, even the most dominant teams of the season’s first two weeks playing at home don’t turn out to be solid bets in Week 3. What makes matters worse is that more often than not, these teams win the games on the scoreboard but demonstrate little regard for their backers’ betting tickets.
Plays for ’07: AGAINST PITTSBURGH, NEW ENGLAND
· 2-0 HOME teams that won their first two games by more than 20 PPG are 0-2 ATS when playing as double-digit favorites, and 0-4 ATS as favorites of less than 4 points.
Analysis: These trends are also a couple traps that bettors tend to fall for. In my opinion, the double-digit favorite in the early going can be a poison pill in the NFL. In a league filled with parity, betting such lines early in the season just doesn’t make a lot of sense. On the other side of the coin, 2-0 home teams when playing as small favorites don’t make for good bets either. Remember, there is a reason they aren’t favored by a larger number.
Plays for ’07: AGAINST NEW ENGLAND
· 2-0 HOME teams scoring more than 33 PPG are 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in Week 3, regardless of the opponent.
Analysis: In saving the best for last, I’ve focused in on the truly elite teams in the early going. These are the teams putting up the big numbers in the first two weeks and looking truly “Superâ€, as in Super Bowl bound. A Week 3 game at home for these prolific offensive teams has been nearly automatic, so be sure to check the NFL team stats after the Week 2 games. Perhaps New England, hosting Buffalo, might qualify?
Plays for ’07: NEW ENGLAND
Good luck in Week 3 everyone. Look for my Week 4 column next week, same time, same place!
posted by phantom
Sept. 20 2007 4:11pm -
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RED SHEET
89 Navy
89 Nebraska
88 BYU
88 Oregon
88 Kansas
NFL:
88 Pittsburgh
posted by phantom
Sept. 20 2007 5:06pm -
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Gold Sheet
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “Oâ€â€”Offense. “Dâ€â€”Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions. ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years. TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 20
*Texas A&M 20 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 19--Unsettled Hurricane offense blowing more cold than hot early on, although return to LY's starter Kyle Wright at QB gives aerial attack more zip. Tough for Aggie option to get to corners vs. speedy UM defense. Still, A&M should be able to pound ball between tackles with bruising jr. RB J. Lane (6-0, 275; 6 TDs last 2 games). Hurricanes haven't lost a Thursday night game since 2000, but Aggies 5-1-1 last 7 as dog. CABLE TV--ESPN
(DNP...SR: Texas A&M 1-0)
posted by phantom
Sept. 20 2007 6:37pm -
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Sunshine Forescast
NFL Computer Predictions
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Indianapolis Colts (-4½) at Houston Texans
Power Rating Projection:
Indianapolis Colts 24 Houston Texans 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Indianapolis Colts 28 Houston Texans 26
San Diego Chargers (-4) at Green Bay Packers
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego Chargers 23 Green Bay Packers 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego Chargers 23 Green Bay Packers 20
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas City Chiefs 21 Minnesota Vikings 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas City Chiefs 17 Minnesota Vikings 13
Detroit Lions (+6½) at Philadelphia Eagles
Power Rating Projection:
Philadelphia Eagles 25 Detroit Lions 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Philadelphia Eagles 27 Detroit Lions 23
Buffalo Bills (+14) at New England Patriots
Power Rating Projection:
New England Patriots 25 Buffalo Bills 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New England Patriots 22 Buffalo Bills 12
Angle: Favored by More Than 13 Points at Home
Go against New England Patriots ( No additional conditions, 28-35-3, 44.4% )
Miami Dolphins (+3) at New York Jets
Power Rating Projection:
New York Jets 22 Miami Dolphins 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New York Jets 21 Miami Dolphins 20
Historical trend: Take New York Jets ( Domination by New York Jets, 13-2-1, 86.7% )
San Francisco 49ers (+9) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 29 San Francisco 49ers 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 35 San Francisco 49ers 24
Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Baltimore Ravens
Power Rating Projection:
Baltimore Ravens 27 Arizona Cardinals 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Baltimore Ravens 27 Arizona Cardinals 16
St Louis Rams (+3½) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Power Rating Projection:
St Louis Rams 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
St Louis Rams 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18
Jacksonville Jaguars(+3½) at Denver Broncos
Power Rating Projection:
Denver Broncos 22 Jacksonville Jaguars 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Denver Broncos 22 Jacksonville Jaguars 21
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Seattle Seahawks
Power Rating Projection:
Cincinnati Bengals 21 Seattle Seahawks 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati Bengals 21 Seattle Seahawks 20
Cleveland Browns (+3½) at Oakland Raiders
Power Rating Projection:
Oakland Raiders 21 Cleveland Browns 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cleveland Browns 18 Oakland Raiders 17
Carolina Panthers (-4) at Atlanta Falcons
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 23 Atlanta Falcons 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 24 Atlanta Falcons 20
Angle: Scored 9 or Fewer Points in Consecutive Games
Go against Atlanta Falcons ( Playing at home, Opponent gave up at least 38 points combined in previous two, 6-17, 26.1% )
New York Giants (+3½) at Washington Redskins
Power Rating Projection:
Washington Redskins 26 New York Giants 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Washington Redskins 34 New York Giants 31
Dallas Cowboys (+3½) at Chicago Bears
Power Rating Projection:
Chicago Bears 25 Dallas Cowboys 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Chicago Bears 33 Dallas Cowboys 31
Monday, September 24, 2007
Tennessee Titans (+5) at New Orleans Saints
Power Rating Projection:
Tennessee Titans 20 New Orleans Saints 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Orleans Saints 26 Tennessee Titans 13
New Orleans Saints (1 star)
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2007 2:36pm -
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Sunshine Forecast
CFB Computer Predictions
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Texas A+M(+3) at Miami-Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Texas A+M 24 Miami-Florida 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas A+M 19 Miami-Florida 12
Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee
Power Rating Projection:
Middle Tennessee 37 Western Kentucky 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Middle Tennessee 40 Western Kentucky 23
Friday, September 21, 2007
Oklahoma(-19½) at Tulsa
Power Rating Projection:
Oklahoma 34 Tulsa 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oklahoma 31 Tulsa 13
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Syracuse(+37) at Louisville
Power Rating Projection:
Louisville 46 Syracuse 12
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisville 55 Syracuse 9
Louisville (1 star)
Illinois(-2½) at Indiana
Power Rating Projection:
Indiana 27 Illinois 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Indiana 31 Illinois 16
Indiana (1 star)
Duke(+11) at Navy
Power Rating Projection:
Navy 29 Duke 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Navy 24 Duke 13
Baylor(-4½) at Buffalo
Power Rating Projection:
Baylor 32 Buffalo 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Baylor 33 Buffalo 25
Kent State(-4) at Akron
Power Rating Projection:
Akron 25 Kent State 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Akron 21 Kent State 16
Historical trend: Take Kent State ( Domination by visiting team, 6-2, 75.0% )
Army(+30) at Boston College
Power Rating Projection:
Boston College 36 Army 10
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boston College 33 Army 6
Miami-Ohio(+13) at Colorado
Power Rating Projection:
Colorado 26 Miami-Ohio 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Colorado 22 Miami-Ohio 14
Ball State(+21½) at Nebraska
Power Rating Projection:
Nebraska 38 Ball State 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nebraska 41 Ball State 20
Air Force(+10) at Brigham Young
Power Rating Projection:
Brigham Young 35 Air Force 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Brigham Young 36 Air Force 21
Washington(+6) at U.C.L.A.
Power Rating Projection:
U.C.L.A. 25 Washington 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U.C.L.A. 23 Washington 21
Georgia(+3½) at Alabama
Power Rating Projection:
Georgia 23 Alabama 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia 20 Alabama 17
Florida(-20½) at Mississippi
Power Rating Projection:
Florida 38 Mississippi 10
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida 37 Mississippi 9
Northwestern(+22) at Ohio State
Power Rating Projection:
Ohio State 32 Northwestern 8
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio State 27 Northwestern 3
Penn State(-3) at Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan 20 Penn State 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Penn State 20 Michigan 9
Penn State (1 star)
Texas Tech(-1½) at Oklahoma State
Power Rating Projection:
Oklahoma State 30 Texas Tech 29
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oklahoma State 34 Texas Tech 33
Michigan State(-15) at Notre Dame
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan State 30 Notre Dame 25
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan State 39 Notre Dame 17
Michigan State (1 star)
Historical trend: Take Michigan State ( Domination on the road by Michigan State, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Notre Dame ( Domination by underdog at Notre Dame, 4-0, 100.0% )
Memphis(+7) at U-C-F
Power Rating Projection:
U-C-F 30 Memphis 29
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U-C-F 32 Memphis 31
Georgia Tech(-3½) at Virginia
Power Rating Projection:
Georgia Tech 24 Virginia 13
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia Tech 24 Virginia 3
Georgia Tech (1 star)
Historical trend: Take Virginia ( Domination at home by Virginia, 4-0, 100.0% )
Colorado State(+6½) at Houston
Power Rating Projection:
Houston 33 Colorado State 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Houston 34 Colorado State 17
Arizona(+17) at California
Power Rating Projection:
California 32 Arizona 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
California 31 Arizona 19
Northern Illinois(+1) at Idaho
Power Rating Projection:
Northern Illinois 29 Idaho 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Northern Illinois 28 Idaho 20
Temple(+21) at Bowling Green
Power Rating Projection:
Bowling Green 33 Temple 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Bowling Green 33 Temple 19
East Carolina(+25) at West Virginia
Power Rating Projection:
West Virginia 39 East Carolina 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
West Virginia 41 East Carolina 17
Iowa State(-3½) at Toledo
Power Rating Projection:
Iowa State 28 Toledo 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Iowa State 27 Toledo 24
North Carolina(+13) at South Florida
Power Rating Projection:
South Florida 39 North Carolina 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
South Florida 41 North Carolina 20
Maryland(+3½) at Wake Forest
Power Rating Projection:
Wake Forest 23 Maryland 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wake Forest 19 Maryland 16
Historical trend: Take Maryland ( Domination by Maryland, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Maryland ( Domination on the road by Maryland, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Wake Forest ( Domination by favorite, 6-2, 75.0% )
Clemson(-7½) at No Carolina State
Power Rating Projection:
Clemson 30 No Carolina State 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Clemson 28 No Carolina State 17
Historical trend: Take Clemson ( Domination by visiting team, 6-2, 75.0% )
Historical trend: Take No Carolina State ( Domination by underdog, 6-2, 75.0% )
Marshall(+22½) at Cincinnati
Power Rating Projection:
Cincinnati 38 Marshall 6
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Cincinnati 45 Marshall 0
Cincinnati (1 star)
Kentucky(+6½) at Arkansas
Power Rating Projection:
Arkansas 27 Kentucky 24
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arkansas 27 Kentucky 24
New Mexico State(+17) at Auburn
Power Rating Projection:
Auburn 34 New Mexico State 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Auburn 33 New Mexico State 13
Connecticut(+7½) at Pittsburgh
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh 27 Connecticut 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh 23 Connecticut 15
Wyoming(-3½) at Ohio
Power Rating Projection:
Ohio 23 Wyoming 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Ohio 19 Wyoming 16
Rice(+38½) at Texas
Power Rating Projection:
Texas 43 Rice 12
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas 45 Rice 13
Washington State(+24) at Southern Cal
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Cal 36 Washington State 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Cal 38 Washington State 21
South Carolina(+15) at Louisiana State
Power Rating Projection:
Louisiana State 30 South Carolina 12
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisiana State 31 South Carolina 3
Louisiana State (1 star)
Iowa(+7) at Wisconsin
Power Rating Projection:
Wisconsin 25 Iowa 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wisconsin 20 Iowa 10
San Jose State(+3½) at Utah State
Power Rating Projection:
San Jose State 26 Utah State 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Jose State 23 Utah State 17
S-M-U(+19½) at Texas Christian
Power Rating Projection:
Texas Christian 38 S-M-U 10
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Christian 36 S-M-U 7
Purdue(-13½) at Minnesota
Power Rating Projection:
Minnesota 33 Purdue 32
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Purdue 39 Minnesota 38
Utah(-8) at Nevada-Las Vegas
Power Rating Projection:
Utah 31 Nevada-Las Vegas 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Utah 30 Nevada-Las Vegas 17
Historical trend: Take Utah ( Domination by Utah, 5-1-2, 83.3% )
Oregon(-17) at Stanford
Power Rating Projection:
Oregon 36 Stanford 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oregon 35 Stanford 12
Historical trend: Take Oregon ( Domination by Oregon, 5-1, 83.3% )
Oregon State(+11) at Arizona State
Power Rating Projection:
Arizona State 28 Oregon State 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arizona State 26 Oregon State 18
Angle: Fourth Straight Home Game
Go against Arizona State ( Won previous three games, Favored in 1st three games, 6-17, 26.1% )
Florida Intl(+30) at Kansas
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas 44 Florida Intl 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas 70 Florida Intl 0
Kansas (1 star)
Angle: Fourth Straight Home Game
Go with Kansas ( Won previous three games, Underdog, PK or NL in exactly one of 1st three games, 10-3, 76.9% )
Troy(-10½) at UL-Lafayette
Power Rating Projection:
Troy 29 UL-Lafayette 26
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Troy 30 UL-Lafayette 28
Florida Atlantic(-6½) at North Texas
Power Rating Projection:
Florida Atlantic 27 North Texas 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida Atlantic 24 North Texas 20
Arkansas State(+18½) at Tennessee
Power Rating Projection:
Tennessee 35 Arkansas State 10
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tennessee 31 Arkansas State 7
Gardner-Webb at Mississippi State
Power Rating Projection:
Mississippi State 35 Gardner-Webb 12
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Mississippi State 32 Gardner-Webb 9
North Dakota St at Central Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Central Michigan 31 North Dakota St 11
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Central Michigan 26 North Dakota St 6
Texas Southern at UTEP
Power Rating Projection:
UTEP 43 Texas Southern 13
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UTEP 46 Texas Southern 16
William + Mary at Virginia Tech
Power Rating Projection:
Virginia Tech 38 William + Mary 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Virginia Tech 38 William + Mary 0
Illinois State at Missouri
Power Rating Projection:
Missouri 43 Illinois State 9
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Missouri 43 Illinois State 9
Howard at Eastern Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Eastern Michigan 35 Howard 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Eastern Michigan 34 Howard 17
S E Louisiana at Tulane
Power Rating Projection:
Tulane 35 S E Louisiana 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tulane 34 S E Louisiana 15
Portland State at San Diego State
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego State 31 Portland State 15
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego State 28 Portland State 13
Central Conn State at Western Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Western Michigan 29 Central Conn State 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Western Michigan 30 Central Conn State 0
Sacramento State at New Mexico
Power Rating Projection:
New Mexico 32 Sacramento State 5
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico 28 Sacramento State 0
Charleston Southern at Hawaii
Power Rating Projection:
Hawaii 46 Charleston Southern 0
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Hawaii 55 Charleston Southern 0
posted by phantom
Sept. 21 2007 2:41pm